台積電 ADR (TSM) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) In English, the earthquake that just took place at 1:10 this afternoon has no impact to TSMC's fabs or the back-end packaging fab.

（外語）用英文來說，今天下午1點10分剛剛發生的地震對台積電的晶圓廠或後端封裝廠都沒有影響。

So there's no impact.

所以沒有影響。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

歡迎參加台積電 2019 年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播高級總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行活動。

The format of today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2019, followed by the guidance of the second quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在2019年第一季度的運營情況，然後是第二季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide company's key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電總裁C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it now from our website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您現在可以從我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's conference presentations.

另請下載與今天的會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statement.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

So please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

因此，請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the microphone to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將麥克風轉給台積電的首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以獲得運營摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter, followed by the guidance of the second quarter.

我的演講將從第一季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第二季度的指導。

First quarter revenue decreased 24.5% quarter-over-quarter as our business was impacted by the overall global economic conditions, which dampened the end market demand, also customers' inventory corrections and high-end smartphone seasonality and the photoresist defect material incident.

第一季度收入環比下降 24.5%，原因是我們的業務受到全球整體經濟狀況的影響，這抑制了終端市場需求，以及客戶的庫存調整和高端智能手機的季節性以及光刻膠缺陷材料事件。

Due to lower level of capacity utilization and the negative impact from a photoresist defect material incident, gross margin decreased 6.4 percentage points sequentially to 41.3%.

由於產能利用率較低以及光刻膠缺陷材料事件的負面影響，毛利率環比下降6.4個百分點至41.3%。

Total operating expenses decreased by about TWD 4.8 billion and they represented 11.9% of total net revenue in the first quarter.

總營業費用減少約 48 億新台幣，佔第一季度總淨收入的 11.9%。

So operating margin decreased by 7.6 percentage points sequentially to 29.4%.

因此營業利潤率環比下降 7.6 個百分點至 29.4%。

Overall, our first quarter EPS was $2.37 and ROE for the first quarter was 14.4%.

總體而言，我們第一季度的每股收益為 2.37 美元，第一季度的 ROE 為 14.4%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

7-nanometer technology accounted for 22% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, 10-nanometer was 4% and 16-nanometer was 16%.

第一季度7納米技術佔晶圓收入的22%，10納米為4%，16納米為16%。

Advanced technologies, which we now define as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 42% of wafer revenue.

我們現在定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 42%。

Now let's take a look at revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們看一下應用程序的收入貢獻。

During the first quarter, Communication, Computer, Consumer and Industrial/Standard decreased 27%, 31%, 10% and 16%, respectively.

第一季度，通信、計算機、消費和工業/標準分別下降了 27%、31%、10% 和 16%。

Now this is the last time we provide a revenue breakdown by application.

現在這是我們最後一次按應用提供收入明細。

From this quarter on, we will report revenue breakdown by platform as we believe this change will better represent the company's results.

從本季度開始，我們將按平台報告收入細分，因為我們相信這一變化將更好地代表公司的業績。

Now let me explain how to read the table.

現在讓我解釋如何閱讀表格。

The table shows the -- between the 4 application and 6 platforms how do they relate to each other.

該表顯示了 4 個應用程序和 6 個平台之間的相互關係。

In general, within computer application, almost all revenue is from HPC.

一般來說，在計算機應用中，幾乎所有的收入都來自 HPC。

Within Communication, about 2/3 is from smartphone.

在通信中，大約 2/3 來自智能手機。

HPC is about 1/5, and other platforms are single digit each.

HPC 大約是 1/5，其他平台都是個位數。

Consumer is mainly distributed between HPC and the digital consumer electronics, whereas Industrial/Standard spread across all platforms, with smartphone and HPC each representing about 30%.

消費者主要分佈在高性能計算和數字消費電子之間，而工業/標準分佈在所有平台上，智能手機和高性能計算各佔 30% 左右。

Now let's take a look at revenue contribution by platform for the first quarter.

現在讓我們看一下第一季度各平台的收入貢獻。

Smartphone decreased 33% to accounted for 47% of our first quarter revenue.

智能手機下降了 33%，占我們第一季度收入的 47%。

HPC decreased 26% to accounted for 29%, while IoT, automotive, digital, consumer electronics and others accounted for 5% to 7% each.

HPC下降26%至29%，而IoT、汽車、數碼、消費電子等各佔5%~7%。

Now I would like to move on to the balance sheet.

現在我想轉到資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 760 billion, an increase of TWD 65 billion from the last quarter.

我們在第一季度結束時的現金和有價證券為 7600 億新台幣，比上一季度增加了 650 億新台幣。

On the liabilities side, current liabilities increased by TWD 38 billion.

在負債方面，流動負債增加了 380 億新台幣。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 8 days to 49 days, as sales decreased faster than average accounts receivable.

在財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數增加 8 天至 49 天，因為銷售額下降速度快於平均應收賬款。

Days of inventory increased 12 days to 79 days, reflecting 7-nanometer wafer prebuild and an increase in raw wafers.

庫存天數增加 12 天至 79 天，這反映了 7 納米晶圓預構建和原始晶圓的增加。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 153 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 76 billion in capital expenditures.

在第一季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1530 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 760 億新台幣的資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD 77 billion and our overall cash balance increased TWD 88 billion to reach TWD 646 billion at the end of the quarter.

結果，我們產生了 770 億新台幣的自由現金流，我們的整體現金餘額增加了 880 億新台幣，在本季度末達到 6460 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditure was $2.46 billion.

以美元計算，我們第一季度的資本支出為 24.6 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let me provide the second quarter guidance.

現在讓我提供第二季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect second quarter revenue to be between USD 7.55 billion and USD 7.65 billion, which is a 7.1% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季度收入將在 75.5 億美元至 76.5 億美元之間，中點環比增長 7.1%。

Based on exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.85, our first quarter gross margin is expected to be between 43% and 45%.

基於 1 美元兌 30.85 新台幣的匯率假設，我們第一季度的毛利率預計在 43% 至 45% 之間。

Our first quarter operating margin is expected to be between 31% and 33%.

我們第一季度的營業利潤率預計在 31% 到 33% 之間。

Also, in the second quarter, we will again need to accrue the 10% retained -- 10% tax on undistributed retained earnings.

此外，在第二季度，我們將再次需要對未分配的留存收益徵收 10% 的留存稅 - 10% 的稅。

As a result, our second quarter tax rate will be about 18%.

因此，我們第二季度的稅率約為 18%。

The tax rate will then fall back to 10% level in the third and fourth quarter and the full year tax rate will be about 12%.

稅率將在第三季度和第四季度回落至 10% 的水平，全年稅率將在 12% 左右。

This concludes my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me follow by making a few comments about the profitability, CapEx and cash dividend.

接下來讓我對盈利能力、資本支出和現金股息發表一些評論。

First, let me talk about the profitability in the first and second quarter.

首先，讓我談談第一季度和第二季度的盈利能力。

Our first quarter gross margin declined by 6.4 percentage points sequentially as our 7-nanometer saw a substantial cutback in utilization in first quarter due to high-end smartphone seasonality, which impacted our gross margin by close to 4 percentage points.

我們第一季度的毛利率環比下降了 6.4 個百分點，因為我們的 7 納米在第一季度由於高端智能手機的季節性而大幅削減了利用率，這對我們的毛利率造成了近 4 個百分點的影響。

In addition, the photo material -- photoresist material incident impacted our gross margin by about 2.6 percentage points as we indicated in our press release in February.

此外，正如我們在 2 月份的新聞稿中指出的那樣，照片材料——光刻膠材料事件對我們的毛利率影響了約 2.6 個百分點。

I have just guided the second quarter gross margin to improve by 2.7 percentage points sequentially at the midpoint.

我剛剛指導第二季度毛利率在中點環比提高 2.7 個百分點。

Since most of the wafer scrapped in first quarter due to the photoresist incident will be made up in second quarter, gross margin can improve by about 1.5 percentage points in this quarter.

由於第一季度因光刻膠事件而報廢的晶圓大部分將在第二季度彌補，因此本季度毛利率可提高約1.5個百分點。

In addition, the 7-nanometer dilution in second quarter, as compared to fourth quarter '18, will be close to 3 percentage points, which is about 1 percentage point improvement from the first quarter in terms of dilution.

此外，與 18 年第四季度相比，第二季度的 7 納米稀釋度將接近 3 個百分點，這在稀釋度方面比第一季度提高了約 1 個百分點。

And we also expect a slight improvement in other nodes' utilization rate.

我們也預計其他節點的利用率會略有提高。

Our gross margin in first and second quarter are primarily impacted by a lower capacity utilization rate.

我們第一季度和第二季度的毛利率主要受到較低的產能利用率的影響。

As our business and utilization rate improves in the second half of this year, we believe about 50% is still a target for our gross margin going forward.

由於我們的業務和利用率在今年下半年有所改善，我們認為 50% 左右仍然是我們未來毛利率的目標。

Now I will talk about the CapEx outlook.

現在我將談談資本支出前景。

We reiterate our 2019 CapEx to be between USD 10 billion to USD 11 billion.

我們重申 2019 年資本支出在 100 億美元至 110 億美元之間。

About 80% of the CapEx budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer.

大約 80% 的資本支出預算將分配給先進的工藝技術，包括 7 納米、5 納米和 3 納米。

About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.

約 10% 將用於先進封裝和掩模製造，約 10% 將用於專業技術。

As I have stated before, we see our CapEx forecast between USD 10 billion and USD 12 billion to support our average growth rate of 5% to 10% per annum in the next few years.

正如我之前所說，我們看到我們的資本支出預測在 100 億美元至 120 億美元之間，以支持我們未來幾年每年 5% 至 10% 的平均增長率。

My last comment is about the cash dividend distribution.

我的最後一條評論是關於現金股息分配。

In the future, TSMC intend to return about 70% of free cash flow to shareholder every year by distributing quarterly dividends.

未來，台積電打算每年通過季度分紅，將約70%的自由現金流返還給股東。

TSMC also remains committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

台積電還繼續致力於每年和每季度的可持續現金股息。

In June, TSMC will hold the annual shareholder meeting to approve the Board's proposed TWD 8 cash dividend per share for the full year of 2018.

6月，台積電將召開年度股東大會，通過董事會提議的2018年全年每股8新台幣現金股息。

And the shareholder meeting will also approve the revision of the articles of incorporation to adopt quarterly dividends.

股東大會還將批准修改公司章程以採用季度分紅。

Subject to the approval by the annual shareholder meeting, the Board plans to approve TWD 2 cash dividend per share for the first quarter 2019 and to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2019.

待年度股東大會批准後，董事會擬批准 2019 年第一季度每股新台幣 2 現金股息，並於 2019 年第四季度支付。

Therefore, TSMC's shareholders will receive a total of TWD 10 per share cash dividend in 2019.

因此，台積電股東在2019年將獲得每股10新台幣的現金分紅。

That also means, in 2020, shareholders will receive at least TWD 10 per share cash dividend for the whole year.

這也意味著，在 2020 年，股東全年將獲得每股至少 10 新台幣的現金股息。

That concludes my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to C.C.

讓我把講台轉到 C.C.

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Let me start with our near-term demand and inventory.

讓我從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。

We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 280.7 billion or USD 7.1 billion, in line with our revised guidance.

我們第一季度的收入為 2807 億新台幣或 71 億美元，符合我們修訂後的指引。

Our business in the first quarter was impacted by 3 factors: first, the overall global economic condition, which dampened the end market demand; second, customers are ongoing inventory adjustment; and third, the high-end mobile product seasonality.

一季度我們的業務受到三個因素的影響：一是全球整體經濟狀況，抑制了終端市場需求；二是客戶正在進行庫存調整；第三，高端移動產品的季節性。

Meanwhile, the net effect from the photoresist defect material incident also impacted our first quarter revenue by about 3.5%.

同時，光刻膠缺陷材料事件的淨效應也影響了我們第一季度的收入約 3.5%。

Moving into second quarter this year.

今年進入第二季度。

While the economical factor and mobile product seasonality still linger, we believe we may have passed the bottom of the cycle of our business as we are seeing customers' demand stabilizing.

雖然經濟因素和移動產品的季節性仍然存在，但我們相信我們可能已經度過了業務週期的底部，因為我們看到客戶的需求趨於穩定。

Based upon customer indications for their business and wafer loading in second quarter, we also expect our customers' overall inventory to be substantially reduced and approach the seasonal level around the middle of this year.

根據客戶對第二季度業務和晶圓裝載的指示，我們還預計客戶的整體庫存將大幅減少，並接近今年年中左右的季節性水平。

In the second half of this year, TSMC's business will be supported by this healthier inventory base as well as strong demand from our industry-leading 7-nanometer technology, which supports high-end smartphone new product launches, initial 5G deployment and HPC-related applications.

今年下半年，台積電的業務將受到更健康的庫存基礎以及我們行業領先的 7 納米技術的強勁需求的支持，該技術支持高端智能手機新產品的發布、初步 5G 部署和 HPC 相關應用程序。

For the whole year of 2019, we forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory as well as foundry growth to both be flattish.

對於 2019 年全年，我們預測不包括內存的整體半導體市場以及代工增長都將持平。

For TSMC, we reiterate that we expect to grow slightly in 2019.

對於台積電，我們重申我們預計 2019 年將小幅增長。

Now let me update the photoresist material incident.

現在讓我更新一下光刻膠材料事件。

On February 15, in order to ensure quality of wafer delivery, TSMC announced it will scrap a large number of wafers as a result of a batch of bad photoresist material from a chemical supplier.

2月15日，為保證晶圓交付質量，台積電宣布因某化工供應商一批光刻膠材料不良而報廢大量晶圓。

This batch of photoresist contained a foreign polymer that created a desirable -- undesirable effect and resulted in yield deviation on 12- and 16-nanometer wafers at Fab 14B.

這批光刻膠含有一種外來聚合物，它產生了一種理想的——不理想的效果，並導致 Fab 14B 的 12 和 16 納米晶圓的良率偏差。

We have since taken corrective actions to enhance our defenses and minimize future risk.

此後，我們採取了糾正措施，以增強我們的防禦能力並將未來的風險降至最低。

Our actions including the following: improve TSMC's own in-house incoming material, conforming test and controls; upgrade control and methodology with all suppliers for incoming material quality certification; establish robust in-line and off-line monitoring process to prevent defect escape.

我們的行動包括以下內容：改進台積電自己的內部進料、合格測試和控制；與所有供應商一起升級進料質量認證的控制和方法；建立健全的在線和離線監控流程，防止缺陷逃逸。

Now I will talk about our N5 status.

現在我將談談我們的 N5 狀態。

Our N5 technology development is well on track.

我們的 N5 技術開發進展順利。

N5 has entered risk production in first quarter, and we expect customer tape-outs starting this quarter and volume production ramp in first half of 2020.

N5 已在第一季度進入風險生產階段，我們預計客戶將從本季度開始流片，並在 2020 年上半年實現量產。

With 1.8X logic density and 15% speed gain and an ARM A72 core compared with 7-nanometer, we believe our N5 technology is the most competitive in the industry.

與 7 納米相比，我們的 N5 技術具有 1.8 倍的邏輯密度和 15% 的速度增益以及 ARM A72 內核，我們相信我們的 N5 技術是業內最具競爭力的。

With the best density, performance, power and the best transistor technology, we expect most of our customers who are using 7-nanometer today will adopt 5-nanometer.

憑藉最好的密度、性能、功率和最好的晶體管技術，我們預計今天使用 7 納米的大多數客戶將採用 5 納米。

With N5, we are expanding our customer product portfolio and increasing our addressable market.

通過 N5，我們正在擴大我們的客戶產品組合併擴大我們的潛在市場。

Thus, we are confident that 5-nanometer will also be a large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心 5 納米也將成為台積電的一個大而持久的節點。

Now I'll talk about the ramp up of N7 and N7+ and introduction of N6.

現在我將談談 N7 和 N7+ 的升級以及 N6 的推出。

We are seeing strong tape-out activities at N7, which include HPC, IoT and automotive.

我們在 N7 看到了強大的流片活動，其中包括 HPC、物聯網和汽車。

Meanwhile, our N7+, which adopts EUV for a few critical layers, has already started volume production now.

同時，我們的N7+在幾個關鍵層都採用了EUV，現在已經開始量產了。

The yield rate is comparable to N7.

良品率與N7相當。

We reaffirm N7 and N7+ will contribute more than 25% of our wafer revenue in year 2019.

我們重申 N7 和 N7+ 將在 2019 年貢獻超過 25% 的晶圓收入。

As we continue to improve our 7-nanometer technology and by leveraging the EUV learning from N7+, we now introduce N6 process.

隨著我們不斷改進我們的 7 納米技術並利用從 N7+ 中學習的 EUV，我們現在引入了 N6 工藝。

N6 has 3 major advantages.

N6有3大優勢。

First, N6 have 100% compatible design rules with N7, which allow customer to directly migrate from N7-based design, which substantially shortened time-to-market.

首先，N6 與 N7 具有 100% 兼容的設計規則，允許客戶直接從基於 N7 的設計遷移，從而大大縮短了產品上市時間。

Second, N6 can deliver 18% higher logical density as compared to N7 and provide customer with a highly competitive performance-to-cost advantage.

其次，與 N7 相比，N6 可以提供高出 18% 的邏輯密度，並為客戶提供極具競爭力的性價比優勢。

Third, N6 will offer shortened cycle time and better defect density.

第三，N6 將提供更短的周期時間和更好的缺陷密度。

Risk production of N6 is scheduled to begin in first quarter year 2020 with volume production starting before the end of 2020.

N6的風險生產計劃於2020年第一季度開始，2020年底前開始量產。

Now let me talk about our advanced packaging technology.

現在讓我談談我們先進的封裝技術。

TSMC's advanced packaging strategy focuses on providing advanced wafer level system integration technologies to meet customers' product needs.

台積電的先進封裝策略專注於提供先進的晶圓級系統整合技術，以滿足客戶的產品需求。

Currently, we have offered InFO and CoWoS for several generation and recently introduced SoIC.

目前，我們已經提供了幾代的 InFO 和 CoWoS，最近還推出了 SoIC。

We believe heterogeneous integration on a packaging level has become a clear trend for many applications.

我們相信，封裝級別的異構集成已成為許多應用的明顯趨勢。

All our advanced packaging platforms enable efficient system level integration, and will continue to do so.

我們所有的先進封裝平台都能實現高效的系統級集成，並將繼續這樣做。

Our fourth generation InFO solutions provide finer interconnected line width and spacing to enable both mobile and HPC products.

我們的第四代 InFO 解決方案提供更精細的互連線寬和間距，以支持移動和 HPC 產品。

CoWoS continue to see good growth momentum in demand from HPC and the AI applications as we continue to expand beyond the reticle size.

隨著我們繼續擴大光罩尺寸，CoWoS 繼續看到 HPC 和 AI 應用程序需求的良好增長勢頭。

We are also working with a few leading customer on SoIC, which is an industry-leading 3D-IC packaging solution.

我們還與一些領先的客戶合作開發 SoIC，這是一種行業領先的 3D-IC 封裝解決方案。

We target to start production in 2021 time frame.

我們的目標是在 2021 年的時間框架內開始生產。

The traction of our advanced packaging solution has been strong in mobile and HPC segment and we have seen inquiry from automotive segment as well.

我們先進的封裝解決方案在移動和高性能計算領域的吸引力一直很強，我們也看到了來自汽車領域的詢價。

We therefore believe our advanced packaging solutions will contribute to our business growth for years to come.

因此，我們相信我們先進的封裝解決方案將有助於我們未來幾年的業務增長。

Finally, I will talk about the HPC as our most important growth driver in the next 5 years.

最後，我將討論 HPC 作為我們未來 5 年最重要的增長動力。

CPU, AI accelerator and networking will be the main growth area for our HPC platform.

CPU、AI 加速器和網絡將是我們 HPC 平台的主要增長領域。

With the successful ramp of N7, N7+ and the upcoming N6 and N5, we are able to expand our customer product portfolio and increase our addressable market to support applications, such as data center, PC and tablets.

隨著 N7、N7+ 和即將推出的 N6 和 N5 的成功推出，我們能夠擴展我們的客戶產品組合併增加我們的目標市場以支持數據中心、PC 和平板電腦等應用程序。

Meanwhile, we also see networking growing thanks to 5G infrastructure deployment over the next few years.

同時，由於未來幾年 5G 基礎設施的部署，我們還看到網絡正在增長。

We are truly excited about our growth opportunities in HPC.

我們對我們在 HPC 的增長機會感到非常興奮。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

First question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

第一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question.

第一個問題。

As C.C. said, you maintain your view for the whole year revenue to grow slightly.

作為 C.C.說，你維持你對全年收入小幅增長的看法。

So that means according to your first quarter revenue, second quarter guidance means that second half is going to grow very fast.

所以這意味著根據你第一季度的收入，第二季度的指導意味著下半年將增長非常快。

So can you just let us know what kind of applications are driving so strong second half to TSMC this year?

那麼，您能否告訴我們，今年下半年，什麼樣的應用推動了台積電如此強勁？

The strong demand I just mentioned from 7-nanometer actually including the mobile platform, HPC platform and IoT, with a little bit flattish over automotive, but that's all that what we rely on.

我剛才提到的 7 納米的強勁需求實際上包括移動平台、HPC 平台和物聯網，與汽車相比有點平淡，但這就是我們所依賴的全部。

Actually, we will say that seasonality of the mobile phone, the new product launch that makes the major contribution.

實際上，我們會說手機的季節性，新產品的推出做出了重大貢獻。

Yes.

是的。

And I just through this calculation.

而我只是通過這個計算。

I think for second half, your revenue actually is going to grow year by year in, maybe, mid-single digit year-on-year.

我認為下半年，您的收入實際上會逐年增長，可能是中個位數的同比增長。

So I think, except for this seasonality, do you gain share or do you have more new applications in second half?

所以我認為，除了這個季節性，你會獲得份額還是下半年有更多的新應用？

We actually gained some shares because of 7-nanometer.

由於 7 納米，我們實際上獲得了一些份額。

And for the new product portfolio, that will be probably you will see the effect in 2020, not much in this year.

而對於新的產品組合，你可能會在 2020 年看到效果，今年不會有太大影響。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, and also for the second half gross margin, Lora said with this higher utilization and also with the less dilution from 7-nanometer.

是的，對於下半年的毛利率，Lora 表示，利用率更高，7 納米的稀釋度也更低。

So is that your long-term gross margin will be -- target will be 50%.

你的長期毛利率也是——目標是 50%。

So is this means that for second half or just for the long term?

那麼這意味著下半年還是長期而言？

Both.

兩個都。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is, C.C., last quarter, you said that now we are at the market with the widest addressable market driven by HPC and CPU.

我的第二個問題是，C.C.，上個季度，你說現在我們處於由 HPC 和 CPU 驅動的最廣泛的潛在市場。

And C.C. also said that HPC is going to be our most important growth driver.

和 C.C.還表示，HPC 將成為我們最重要的增長動力。

So can you quantify how big foundry addressable market will be driven by HPC and CPU, respectively?

那麼，您能否量化一下 HPC 和 CPU 將分別推動多大的代工目標市場？

I don't think I have enough data to tell you that how much we can quantify the percentage.

我認為我沒有足夠的數據來告訴你我們可以量化多少百分比。

But I believe the HPC platform will grow double digit excluding the cryptocurrency, of course.

但我相信 HPC 平台當然會增長兩位數，不包括加密貨幣。

How about the CPU?

CPU呢？

Too specific.

太具體了。

Okay.

好的。

And I think, lastly.

我認為，最後。

Roland, you have more than 2.

羅蘭，你有兩個以上。

This is a follow-up for the second question.

這是第二個問題的後續。

Yes.

是的。

So do you have any competition on this CPU foundry also?

那麼你們在這家 CPU 代工廠也有競爭嗎？

Again, I don't want to be too more specific on the CPU area, all right, Roland?

再說一次，我不想對 CPU 區域說得太具體，好嗎，Roland？

Next.

下一個。

The question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

這個問題將來自摩根大通的 Gokul。

So my first question is on 5-nanometer.

所以我的第一個問題是關於 5 納米的。

I think in the last conference call, C.C., you mentioned that TSMC will be initially building a few percentage points or some lower capacity on 5-nanometer in 2020 compared to 7-nanometer.

我想在上次電話會議中，C.C.，你提到台積電最初將在 2020 年在 5 納米上建立幾個百分點或更低的產能，與 7 納米相比。

Now that you have more visibility into your customers' plans, could you let us know what does that mean?

既然您對客戶的計劃有了更多的了解，您能否告訴我們這意味著什麼？

Is that 30% lower, 10% lower?

是低30%還是低10%？

What does it mean?

這是什麼意思？

And why is that?

為什麼是這樣？

Is it because customer is a little bit hesitant to go to 5-nanometer and has other options?

是因為客戶對 5 納米有點猶豫，還有其他選擇嗎？

Or you just believe that, like you previously mentioned, the only reason is that high-end smartphone demand expectation, you're taking a more cautious view on that?

或者你只是相信，就像你之前提到的，唯一的原因是高端智能手機的需求預期，你對此持更謹慎的看法？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Actually, Gokul, I like your last sentence, you say that's more cautiously.

實際上，Gokul，我喜歡你的最後一句話，你說的比較謹慎。

Let me repeat again that we say N5's initial ramp, it might be slower than the N7.

讓我再重複一遍，我們說 N5 的初始斜坡，它可能比 N7 慢。

First, we learned a lesson from the N7's wafer loading.

首先，我們從 N7 的晶圓裝載中吸取了教訓。

Look at this year, so first quarter and second quarter right now, it's actually very low so we learned a lesson.

看看今年，所以現在第一季度和第二季度，它實際上非常低，所以我們吸取了教訓。

So we are working with the customer to be more cautiously and effectively manage the capacity ramping, so that's what I said that it will be a little bit slow.

因此，我們正在與客戶合作，以更加謹慎和有效地管理產能提升，所以這就是我所說的，它會有點慢。

But that being said, the N5's business, I want to reassure everybody that N5 as a business will grow bigger than N7 because our expanding the product portfolio, and you know what I mean.

但話雖如此，N5 的業務，我想向大家保證，N5 作為一個業務將比 N7 發展得更大，因為我們擴大了產品組合，你知道我的意思。

In the HPC, we have very good opportunities and on the smartphone we are gaining market share.

在高性能計算領域，我們有很好的機會，在智能手機上我們正在獲得市場份額。

So I will believe that N5 initial ramp probably a little bit more cautiously slower than the N7, but it will pick up quickly.

所以我相信 N5 的初始斜坡可能會比 N7 慢一點，但它會迅速回升。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

My second question is on the technology leadership.

我的第二個問題是關於技術領導力。

I think TSMC clearly now seems to be ahead of even IDMs in terms of technology leadership.

我認為台積電現在顯然在技術領先方面甚至領先於 IDM。

How should we think about how that translates in a financial basis?

我們應該如何考慮這如何轉化為財務基礎？

What we've seen in semiconductor industry in the last several years is when one player becomes the dominant player, typically, margins go up.

過去幾年我們在半導體行業看到的是，當一個玩家成為主導者時，通常利潤率會上升。

How should we think about this?

我們應該如何思考這個問題？

What is TSMC's philosophy in terms of utilizing this technology leadership?

台積電在利用這種技術領先地位方面的理念是什麼？

Are we looking for higher than market revenue growth or we should expect structurally higher margins in the future years now that we are kind of getting through the smartphone saturation period and getting into HPC?

我們是否正在尋找高於市場的收入增長，或者我們應該期待未來幾年的結構性更高的利潤率，因為我們正在經歷智能手機的飽和期並進入 HPC？

As you pointed out, we have technology leadership and supposed -- and we are working on it also.

正如你所指出的，我們擁有技術領先地位，並且應該 - 我們也在努力。

Actually, we want to grow the market share.

實際上，我們想擴大市場份額。

We want to do a bigger business with a higher profitability.

我們希望做更大的業務並獲得更高的盈利能力。

I don't have enough data in my hand to give you order analysis in the future years, but we are working on it.

我手頭沒有足夠的數據來為您提供未來幾年的訂單分析，但我們正在努力。

And that the goal we are working on, actually, higher profitability and gain market share.

我們正在努力的目標實際上是提高盈利能力並獲得市場份額。

So just one sub question there.

所以只有一個子問題。

I think if we observe the last couple of years, TSMC -- foundry industry has not outgrown semis, ex memory.

我認為，如果我們觀察過去幾年，台積電——代工行業並沒有超越半導體，前記憶。

And TSMC also has not grown much faster than the foundry industry, which was not the case in the past.

而且台積電的增長速度也沒有比代工行業快多少，過去並非如此。

In the past foundry was growing much faster than semis, and TSMC was growing much faster than semis -- foundries.

過去晶圓代工廠的增長速度遠高於半導體，台積電的增長速度也遠高於半導體——代工廠。

So when do we expect that gap to open up between TSMC's growth and foundry growth and potentially foundry growth and semis growth itself?

那麼，我們預計台積電的增長和代工增長以及潛在的代工增長和半導體增長本身之間的差距何時會打開？

You are asking more and more specific on the schedule.

您對時間表的要求越來越具體。

I would -- I would expect that starting from the second half of this year and extended to the next few years, we will start to widen the gap.

我會 - 我希望從今年下半年開始並延伸到未來幾年，我們將開始擴大差距。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

That's specific enough.

這已經夠具體了。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的比爾·盧。

So in the last couple of months, I've had a chance to visit a few fabless customers and I feel like the feedback that I'm getting is that, maybe previously, there was more concerns about EUV feasibility.

所以在過去的幾個月裡，我有機會拜訪了一些無晶圓廠的客戶，我覺得我得到的反饋是，也許以前，人們對 EUV 的可行性有更多的擔憂。

That is now mostly going away or maybe it's less.

現在大部分情況正在消失，或者可能更少。

But on the flip side, I hear maybe a bit more concerned about cost per transistor for 5-nanometers.

但另一方面，我聽說可能更關心 5 納米的每個晶體管的成本。

I'm wondering if you agree with that and what can be done about that.

我想知道您是否同意這一點，以及可以做些什麼。

Well, that's a good question.

嗯，這是個好問題。

We did some calculation by ourselves.

我們自己做了一些計算。

We still think that cost per transistor is still decreasing, but not as fast as it used to be.

我們仍然認為每個晶體管的成本仍在下降，但沒有以前那麼快了。

That's one thing.

那是一回事。

As you mentioned about the EUV, today, we put the EUV into mass production already, and we learned some kind of experience so that we can introduce N6.

正如你提到的EUV，今天我們已經將EUV投入量產，我們學習了一些經驗，以便我們可以推出N6。

But is EUV productivity very good already?

但是 EUV 的生產力已經很好了嗎？

Not yet.

還沒有。

We expect it to continue to improve every year, just as we did for the immersion photolithography.

我們預計它每年都會繼續改進，就像我們對浸沒式光刻技術所做的那樣。

So we expect in the future that EUV will offer a best tool in terms of cost, in terms of technologies moving forward, but not today yet.

因此，我們預計未來 EUV 將在成本方面提供最佳工具，在技術向前發展方面，但不是今天。

There's still a lot of process complexity, so we're using the EUV to replace some of the very critical layers and the cost probably are equal today.

仍然有很多工藝複雜性，所以我們正在使用 EUV 來替換一些非常關鍵的層，並且今天的成本可能是相同的。

And in the future, we hope it will improve.

在未來，我們希望它會有所改善。

Once it improves, the cost per transistor will decrease faster.

一旦改進，每個晶體管的成本將下降得更快。

Is there a timing for that?

有時間嗎？

No.

不。

But as fast as possible.

但盡可能快。

Sorry.

對不起。

Second question is just a clarification.

第二個問題只是一個澄清。

I think, previously, Dr. Wei said that HPC ex crypto grows double digits.

我認為，之前，魏博士說 HPC ex crypto 增長了兩位數。

Is that for this year or is that longer term?

是今年的還是長期的？

For this year, it's close.

今年，它很接近。

For longer term, that's what I mean, for longer term.

從長遠來看，這就是我的意思，從長遠來看。

Yes.

是的。

Really appreciate the breakout by platform.

非常感謝平台的突破。

Can you help me with this year's growth, maybe just for smartphone versus HPC?

您能否幫助我了解今年的增長，也許只是智能手機與 HPC 的對比？

Both are probably in the mid-single digit, somewhere around that.

兩者都可能在中個位數左右，大約在那個位置。

Okay.

好的。

So HPC is close to that (inaudible).

所以 HPC 接近那個（聽不清）。

Yes.

是的。

Without crypto, mid-single digit including crypto?

沒有加密，包括加密在內的中個位數？

No.

不。

HPC without the cryptocurrency, it will be somewhere mid-single digit.

沒有加密貨幣的 HPC，它將是中個位數。

With the cryptocurrency, it's dragged down.

使用加密貨幣，它被拖了下來。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

First of all, just want to follow up that HPC segment.

首先，只想跟進那個 HPC 細分市場。

Because just compare the notes, last quarter, we said HPC excluding crypto upsizing right?

因為只是比較筆記，上個季度，我們說 HPC 不包括加密貨幣升遷，對嗎？

Including crypto, down more than 10%.

包括加密貨幣在內，跌幅超過 10%。

So it seems like the number seems to be a little bit better.

所以看起來這個數字似乎好一點。

Is that the right comment about HPC market doing better than expected?

這是關於 HPC 市場表現好於預期的正確評論嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's doing better because of one of the factors or one of the components in HPC is networking.

由於 HPC 中的一個因素或組件之一是網絡，它做得更好。

And you know that 5G's deployment, so that helped the growth of the networking quickly.

而且您知道 5G 的部署，這有助於網絡的快速發展。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, so I think this is related to my second question, right?

是的，所以我認為這與我的第二個問題有關，對吧？

I think a lot of shareholders are saying that some big customers in smartphone and the base station segment is building up inventory for whatever reason, share gain or semiconductor strategic inventory.

我想很多股東都在說，智能手機和基站領域的一些大客戶無論出於何種原因正在積累庫存，無論是份額收益還是半導體戰略庫存。

But you mentioned -- you also said that you believe the inventory level will be back to normal around the midyear.

但是您提到-您還說您相信庫存水平將在年中左右恢復正常。

So my question is do you worry about this kind of overbuild of inventory and how are you going to manage that kind of risk?

所以我的問題是你是否擔心這種庫存過度增加，你將如何管理這種風險？

We don't specifically comment on one customer's particular business behavior, but then we share with you why we say that the inventory will be greatly reduced and be close to the seasonal level around the middle of this year.

我們不具體評論某位客戶的特定業務行為，但接下來跟大家分享一下為什麼我們說庫存會在今年年中左右大幅度減少並接近季節性水平。

We actually looked at our history in the second quarter, the customers' growth rate, and we're using that number and look at the customers' demand number given to us in the second quarter.

我們實際上查看了第二季度的歷史，客戶的增長率，我們正在使用該數字並查看第二季度給我們的客戶需求數量。

And we do some calculation and we come to a conclusion that they are digesting their inventory quickly.

我們做了一些計算，得出的結論是他們正在迅速消化庫存。

So that's how we say that in the second quarter, they are not building the inventory.

這就是我們所說的，在第二季度，他們沒有建立庫存。

They are actually -- they are reducing the inventory quickly.

他們實際上是——他們正在迅速減少庫存。

And that's why we come to the conclusion that in the second half, we will have a healthier inventory base.

這就是為什麼我們得出結論，在下半年，我們將擁有更健康的庫存基礎。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, maybe a quick question to Lora on cash dividend.

是的，也許是一個關於現金股息的快速問題。

So you -- so this year, I think the quarterly run rate is like $2 per quarter, right, but the annual dividend payout is actually $10 in total, right.

所以你 - 所以今年，我認為季度運行率是每季度 2 美元，對，但年度股息支付實際上總共是 10 美元，對吧。

So for next year, what will be the kind of minimum dividend payout?

那麼明年，最低股息支付方式是什麼？

To use $2 run rate so we get like $8 for full year for 2020, is that the guidance?

要使用 2 美元的運行費率，那麼我們 2020 年全年的收入是 8 美元，這是指導嗎？

This year, actually, is a transition year, so we issue twice of cash dividend.

今年其實是過渡年，所以分兩次派發現金分紅。

First, $8, followed by the $2 on quarterly basis.

首先是 8 美元，然後是每季度 2 美元。

Starting from first quarter next year, we will only have quarterly dividends, and we want to have a sustainable on quarterly dividend and on annual both.

從明年第一季度開始，我們將只有季度分紅，我們希望季度分紅和年度分紅都可持續。

So we will likely see more stable dividend on quarterly basis as well.

因此，我們也可能會看到更穩定的季度股息。

So since I said, the dividend will be no less than $10, and we want to be stable on quarterly basis.

因此，既然我說過，股息將不低於 10 美元，我們希望每季度保持穩定。

So you can assume or expect we will issue $2.50 on quarterly basis at least.

因此，您可以假設或期望我們至少每季度發行 2.50 美元。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

I want to ask a follow-up.

我想問一個後續。

It was a good disclosure moving to the new platform segmentation.

轉移到新的平台細分是一個很好的披露。

Could you talk about sequential pickup?

你能談談順序拾取嗎？

How you see the different 4 platforms?

您如何看待不同的 4 個平台？

How they're sequentially improving from this low level.

他們是如何從這個低水平依次提高的。

And then for full year, since we've got the first pieces also the IoT and automotive, what your views on the other segments for the full year?

然後是全年，因為我們已經有了第一批物聯網和汽車，你對全年其他領域的看法是什麼？

I will first comment on the second quarter on a sequential basis by platform and followed by the full year picture.

我將首先按平台順序評論第二季度，然後是全年情況。

Is that what you're asking, Randy?

這就是你要問的嗎，蘭迪？

Okay.

好的。

For second quarter, we are expecting smartphone to grow single digit.

對於第二季度，我們預計智能手機將實現個位數增長。

HPC grow double digit, and IoT, automotive and others will grow single-digit, and the digital consumer electronic will slightly decline.

HPC增長兩位數，IoT、汽車等增長個位數，數字消費電子小幅下滑。

That's for second quarter.

那是第二季度的。

For the whole year, we expect smartphone will grow high-single digit.

全年，我們預計智能手機將保持高個位數增長。

HPC excluding crypto will grow high-single digit as well.

不包括加密的 HPC 也將增長高個位數。

And IoT will grow double digit, automotive will decline single digit, and digital still cameras and others will decline single digit.

物聯網將增長兩位數，汽車將下降個位數，數碼相機等將下降個位數。

That's the overall picture for this year.

這就是今年的總體情況。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Appreciate that.

感謝。

And then follow-up on the migration for these derivatives, 7-plus and 6 nanometer.

然後跟進這些衍生物的遷移，7+ 和 6 納米。

It seems to date, the adoption has been rather slow for this year.

到目前為止，今年的採用速度似乎相當緩慢。

If you could talk maybe about factors why a lot of customers are staying on 7 for now.

如果你能談談為什麼很多客戶現在停留在 7 上的因素。

And as the node matures, if you could talk about the pace?

隨著節點的成熟，您能否談談步伐？

How you see customer see a percent of the node or how meaningful next 1 or 2 years for those derivative process?

您如何看待客戶看到節點的百分比或這些衍生流程在未來 1 或 2 年的意義？

As I said, we have a very high tape-out activity for N7 for this year.

正如我所說，今年我們有非常高的 N7 流片活動。

Actually, a lot of customer from the four platforms, and mostly is from the HPC area, they are all designing their product with N7.

實際上，這四個平台的客戶很多，而且大部分來自HPC領域，他們都在用N7設計他們的產品。

A few of them adopted N7+.

他們中的一些人採用了N7+。

But then that's why we introduced our N6 that can be 100% compatible to the N7.

但這就是我們推出可以 100% 兼容 N7 的 N6 的原因。

So I'll give you a taste of that probably starting year 2020.

因此，我將帶您體驗一下可能從 2020 年開始的情況。

Most of the customers in the N7 will move to N6.

N7 的大部分客戶將搬到 N6。

And from that day on probably, the N6 will pick up all the momentum and pick up all the volume production.

從那一天起，N6 可能會恢復所有勢頭並恢復所有量產。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

If I can ask a follow-up to, given the strength on these derivatives, 6-nanometer, 5 and optimism, do you have any different view on 28 about -- if any of this equipment could be migrated to these advanced nodes?

如果我可以問一個後續問題，鑑於這些衍生產品的優勢、6 納米、5 和樂觀，你對 28 有什麼不同的看法——如果這些設備中的任何一個可以遷移到這些先進節點上？

Or do you think it will be all new capacity?

還是您認為這將是全新的容量？

From node to node, we have about 90% of the common tool or bigger than 90% of the percentage of the common tool being used for the next node.

從一個節點到另一個節點，我們有大約 90% 的通用工具或大於 90% 的通用工具用於下一個節點。

So you bet that some of the tools from 28-nanometer can be used for 7 or for 5, okay?

所以你打賭28納米的一些工具可以用於7或5，好嗎？

But of course, it's less and less.

但當然，它越來越少。

But to -- for the overcapacity in the 28-nanometer because of some of the non-market-driven capacity increase, our strategy is to develop some of derivative technology like a 22-nanometer and so that we can ensure that we still have a very healthy loading in the future.

但是對於 28 納米的產能過剩，由於一些非市場驅動的產能增加，我們的策略是開發一些衍生技術，比如 22 納米，這樣我們就可以確保我們仍然有一個未來非常健康的加載。

Next question will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題將來自 Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu。

(foreign language) This is Rick from Daiwa.

（外語）我是大和的瑞克。

So I think the first question is about the follow-up on the N6.

所以我認為第一個問題是關於N6的後續。

My question is would you worry whether the N6 will cannibalize N5 development because this node looks pretty close.

我的問題是你會擔心 N6 是否會蠶食 N5 的開發，因為這個節點看起來非常接近。

The number N6 and N5 looks pretty close, but actually the performance are -- they still have a big gap.

N6和N5的數字看起來很接近，但實際上性能是——它們還有很大的差距。

N5 compared with N7, actually, the logic density increased by 80%, 8-0.

N5與N7相比，實際上邏輯密度提高了80%，8-0。

N6 compared with N7 is only 18.

N6與N7相比只有18。

So you can see there's a big difference in that logic density and transistor performance also.

因此，您可以看到邏輯密度和晶體管性能也存在很大差異。

And so as a result, the total power consumption in the chip is lower in the N5.

因此，N5 的芯片總功耗更低。

And also that -- there's a lot of benefit if you move into N5.

而且——如果你搬進 N5 會有很多好處。

But nevertheless, N5 is one of the node, full node, and it takes time for the customer to design their new products.

但是儘管如此，N5是節點之一，全節點，客戶設計新產品需要時間。

The beauty of the N6 is if they already design in N7, they spend a very minimal effort.

N6 的美妙之處在於，如果他們已經在 N7 中進行了設計，他們只需花費很少的精力。

They can move into the N6 and gain some benefit.

他們可以進入 N6 並獲得一些好處。

And so some of the customers, depending on their product's characteristics and their market, they will decide which one go to N6, which one go to N5.

所以有些客戶會根據他們的產品特性和市場，決定哪一個去N6，哪一個去N5。

Can I have one quick follow-up to the first question before I ask the second one?

在我問第二個問題之前，我可以快速跟進第一個問題嗎？

Just a quick follow-up.

只是快速跟進。

Can you share the number of critical layers that will be built by EUV for -- I know for 7+, you -- I think last year, you mentioned just a few layers, critical layer for EUV.

你能分享一下 EUV 將構建的關鍵層的數量——我知道 7+，你——我想去年，你只提到了幾層，即 EUV 的關鍵層。

What about N6 and N5?

N6和N5呢？

Okay.

好的。

N6 has few critical layers plus 1. Okay.

N6 有幾個關鍵層加上 1。好的。

That gives you a hint.

這給了你一個提示。

N5 plus many, so...

N5加很多，所以...

Okay.

好的。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

And my second question is you look at your end first quarter inventory days, 79.

我的第二個問題是你看看你的第一季度末庫存天數，79。

If I don't remember wrong, I think this is probably kind of an all-time high in the history.

如果我沒記錯的話，我想這可能是歷史上的最高點。

Majority of this inventory were finished wafers or can you share some idea -- and also, can you elaborate a little bit more what's the rationale behind that 79 days?

大部分庫存都是成品晶圓，或者您能否分享一些想法 - 另外，您能否詳細說明這 79 天背後的基本原理是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Rick, 79 is really high, but there's a good reason for that.

Rick, 79 確實很高，但這是有充分理由的。

Because we anticipated 7-nanometer capacity will be very tight in the second half.

因為我們預計下半年 7 納米的產能會非常緊張。

Well, it's not so tight.

好吧，它不是那麼緊。

It's very empty in the first half.

上半場非常空曠。

So we're trying to prebuild some of the inventory for our customer in work in process.

因此，我們正在嘗試為在製品的客戶預先建立一些庫存。

So they will not be constrained by our second half capacity.

所以他們不會受到我們下半年產能的限制。

So by doing so, that work in in process value will certainly go up, right?

因此，通過這樣做，在製品價值肯定會上升，對吧？

So when we move in the second half, when we digest those inventory and demand start to pick up, our days of inventory will come down in the second half.

因此，當我們在下半年搬家時，當我們消化這些庫存並且需求開始回升時，我們的庫存天數將在下半年下降。

Next question will be coming from Bruce Lu, who is now with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自現就職於高盛的 Bruce Lu。

My first question is still going back to the smartphone.

我的第一個問題仍然是智能手機。

Management mentioned that the smartphone growth is going to be high single digit.

管理層提到智能手機的增長將達到個位數。

This is substantially stronger than the smartphone shipment growth.

這大大強於智能手機出貨量的增長。

And management also guided previously that the next couple of years, smartphone growth will be mid-single digit.

管理層此前也曾指導，未來幾年智能手機的增長將達到中個位數。

Again, it's also higher than the smartphone shipment growth in our view.

同樣，我們認為這也高於智能手機的出貨量增長。

So where is the growth coming from?

那麼增長從何而來？

Is it mainly driven by the content growth or share gain either by your customer or yourselves share gain?

它主要是由您的客戶或您自己的分享收益或內容增長驅動的嗎？

And can we somehow quantify that a little bit?

我們可以以某種方式量化它嗎？

Quantify, I probably cannot.

量化，我可能做不到。

But the answer to your question is both.

但你的問題的答案是兩者兼而有之。

We gain the market share and the content increase quite a lot.

我們獲得了市場份額，內容增加了很多。

Can we know like which one is stronger?

我們能知道哪個更強嗎？

You got me.

你得到了我。

I want both of them to be as high as possible, but I don't have a calculation.

我希望他們兩個都盡可能高，但我沒有計算。

Because of the market share gain, we have to be very careful into doing the calculation.

由於市場份額的增加，我們必須非常小心地進行計算。

And also the content increase.

而且內容也增加了。

Let me say that content increase in the 5G area or in the AI area, every customer are different.

再說說5G領域或者AI領域的內容增加，每個客戶都不一樣。

So they put a different functionality inside.

所以他們在裡面放了不同的功能。

And we don't have a very good detail or detail insight to give you exactly a number to quantify what is the percentage per se.

而且我們沒有很好的細節或細節洞察力來給你準確的數字來量化百分比本身。

I see.

我懂了。

The reason I tried to dig down a bit further is that if the content growth which means that, that will be at expense of the smartphone cost structure.

我試圖進一步挖掘的原因是，如果內容增長意味著這意味著，那將以犧牲智能手機的成本結構為代價。

So you have higher content growth, which means that semi content in terms of cost structure is higher, which at the end of the day will dampen the smartphone shipment as price elastic.

所以你有更高的內容增長，這意味著半內容在成本結構方面更高，最終將抑制智能手機的出貨量，因為價格具有彈性。

So how do you -- we've foreseen very, very strong content growth, which means that the cost structure for your customer will be much higher at the end of the day.

那麼您如何-我們已經預見到非常非常強勁的內容增長，這意味著您的客戶的成本結構最終會高得多。

So there will be certain trade-off at the end of the day.

所以最終會有一定的權衡。

There will be certain trade-off of the high-end smartphones pricing and their cost, of course.

當然，高端智能手機的定價和成本會有一定的權衡。

But for TSMC, our job is to fully support customers' need.

但對於台積電來說，我們的工作是全力支持客戶的需求。

When they need this functionality, they need this kind of speed, we support it.

當他們需要這個功能時，他們需要這種速度，我們支持它。

Whether that will increase their pricing or the smartphones end market strategy, that's not really our concern.

這是否會增加他們的定價或智能手機終端市場戰略，這並不是我們真正關心的問題。

We support it all the way.

我們一直支持它。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is more for Lora.

我的第二個問題更多是關於 Lora 的。

So can you somehow help us to quantify the margin impact in 2020 as we can expect like very high -- very quick ramp-up for the 5-nanometer, which naturally, in the first year, there will be the negative margin impact.

因此，您能否以某種方式幫助我們量化 2020 年的利潤率影響，正如我們所預期的那樣——5 納米的增長速度非常快，這自然會在第一年產生負面的利潤率影響。

And we will come into the third year of 7-nanometer, so the margin negative impact should be less, but you have new margin negative on 5. So how do we -- can we get some color on it?

我們將進入 7 納米的第三個年頭，所以邊際負面影響應該會更小，但你在 5 上會有新的邊際負面影響。那麼我們如何——我們可以給它一些顏色嗎？

The margin impact actually has 2 front.

邊際影響實際上有 2 個前沿。

Number one, introduction of new technology as you just mentioned.

第一，你剛才提到的新技術的引入。

Usually, in the first year, there's a dilution to corporate gross margin.

通常，在第一年，公司毛利率會被稀釋。

The other factor is utilization on each technology node, particularly the advanced technology node is more sensitive to utilization.

另一個因素是每個技術節點的利用率，特別是先進的技術節點對利用率更敏感。

So if we look at the corporate margin, we have to take consideration of both.

因此，如果我們查看公司利潤率，我們必須同時考慮兩者。

But if we just talk about the leading-edge introductions, N5 will be like N7.

但如果我們只談論前沿的介紹，N5 將和 N7 一樣。

It will have some dilution next year.

明年會有所稀釋。

And so we have indicated before, it takes 7 or 8 quarters to reach to corporate level.

所以我們之前已經指出，要達到企業級需要 7 或 8 個季度。

We believe N5 will follow the same pattern.

我們相信 N5 將遵循相同的模式。

But can we assume that the first 2 quarters of N5 in the second half next year when you ramp-up the negative impact for the margin is likely 2% or 3% like what we had in 7?

但是我們是否可以假設明年下半年 N5 的前兩個季度，當你加大對利潤率的負面影響時，可能會像我們在 7 年那樣產生 2% 或 3% 的負面影響？

No.

不。

We need to look at what's the ramping speed as well.

我們還需要看看斜坡速度是多少。

Because if you ramp faster, eventually, you can get through the learning curve quicker.

因為如果你爬得更快，最終，你可以更快地完成學習曲線。

So if you ramp slower, you'll take long time.

所以如果你慢一點，你會花很長時間。

So it's -- many factors will affect that.

所以它 - 許多因素會影響它。

I see.

我懂了。

Because most of the investors' concern is that with EUV potential higher CapEx, blah, blah, blah, so that might have higher negative impact in terms of gross margin when we ramp up 5. So we just want to get some color to clear the concern.

因為大多數投資者擔心的是 EUV 潛在的更高資本支出，等等，等等，所以當我們提高 5 時，這可能會對毛利率產生更大的負面影響。所以我們只想得到一些顏色來清除關心。

I think the N5 impact will not have difference than our previous leading nodes.

我認為 N5 的影響不會比我們之前的領先節點有什麼不同。

I think this is about time that we should go to the line for the questions.

我認為現在是我們應該排隊回答問題的時候了。

Operator, could you please have the next caller on the line?

接線員，請問下一位來電者是否在線？

Sure.

當然。

Next question is from the line of Brett Simpson of Arete Research.

下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I have plenty of questions for C.C. First on FD-SOI.

我有很多問題要問 C.C.首先是 FD-SOI。

It seems to be getting more traction in 5G than we first thought both on the -- on RF-SOI and on the modem side for handsets.

在 RF-SOI 和手機調製解調器方面，5G 的吸引力似乎比我們最初想像的要大。

So I'm just keen to understand if TSMC might consider supporting FD-SOI or RF-SOI.

所以我很想知道台積電是否會考慮支持 FD-SOI 或 RF-SOI。

And if not, how you plan to defend against it?

如果沒有，你打算如何防禦它？

Okay.

好的。

The question is FD-SOI has some good momentum in 5G area.

問題是 FD-SOI 在 5G 領域有一些良好的發展勢頭。

And does TSMC consider to develop the FD-SOI?

台積電是否考慮開發FD-SOI？

The answer is no.

答案是不。

Actually, we also offer very good technology, 22 nanometer technology that today's performance is very comparable to FD-SOI, if not better.

實際上，我們也提供非常好的技術，22 納米技術，今天的性能可以與 FD-SOI 媲美，如果不是更好的話。

And we're talking to the customer right now and a lot of customers start to adopt the TSMC's approach.

我們現在正在與客戶交談，很多客戶開始採用台積電的方法。

So no, we are not going to develop FD-SOI technology.

所以不，我們不會開發 FD-SOI 技術。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up, C.C. Can you give us your perspective on TSMC's strategy for compound semiconductor materials like gallium nitride or silicon carbide?

只是後續行動，C.C.您能談談您對台積電在氮化鎵或碳化矽等化合物半導體材料方面的策略的看法嗎？

It seems to be still very small market, but the potential long term seems to be quite significant.

它似乎仍然是一個非常小的市場，但潛在的長期似乎相當重要。

So how does TSMC plan to deploy these in its variance?

那麼台積電計劃如何在其變體中部署這些？

Okay.

好的。

The question is about III-V compound or compound semiconductors.

問題是關於 III-V 族化合物或化合物半導體。

TSMC actually is developing the gallium nitride technology to support the power management IC or the high-voltage, high-current power management.

台積電實際上正在開發氮化鎵技術來支持電源管理IC或高壓、大電流電源管理。

And others like gallium oxynitride high frequency or those kind of thing, no, we are not doing it.

和其他像氮氧化鎵高頻或那種東西，不，我們沒有這樣做。

We -- actually, we are doing the gallium nitride project to support our customers' need.

我們——實際上，我們正在開展氮化鎵項目來支持我們客戶的需求。

That, today, we are doing.

今天，我們正在這樣做。

Silicon carbide, no.

碳化矽，沒有。

We are not doing it also.

我們也沒有這樣做。

Operator, can you have the caller on -- the next caller on the line, please?

接線員，你能接通來電者——請接下一個來電者嗎？

Sure.

當然。

We have Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

我們有 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First one, is your guide on the smartphone revenue growth of high single digit this year impacted by one of the leading semiconductor company exiting the baseband business.

第一個，是您對今年智能手機收入增長高個位數的指南，這受到領先的半導體公司之一退出基帶業務的影響。

And I'm just trying to better understand how you view going to capitalize this opportunity, and I have a follow-up.

我只是想更好地了解你如何看待如何利用這個機會，我有一個後續行動。

Mehdi's question is that whether or not this year our high single-digit growth in the smartphone platform is affected by 1 very large company's exit from the baseband market.

Mehdi 的問題是，今年我們在智能手機平台的高個位數增長是否受到 1 家非常大的公司退出基帶市場的影響。

Well, again, we don't comment on specific customer's business situation, but I will say this year that we have a high single-digit smartphones, of course.

好吧，同樣，我們不會評論特定客戶的業務情況，但我會說今年我們當然擁有高個位數的智能手機。

It's because, one, we gained market share.

這是因為，一，我們獲得了市場份額。

Two, again, that silicon content is higher.

第二，矽含量更高。

So that's why we say we have a high single-digit growth.

所以這就是為什麼我們說我們有很高的個位數增長。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then turning onto the 6-nanometer.

然後轉向6納米。

I'm just trying to better understand the applications that would utilize 6-nanometer.

我只是想更好地理解使用 6 納米的應用程序。

And if I heard you correctly, 6 is going to be ramping later than 5. And if you could elaborate on the current applications that would use that would be good at understanding that particular node?

如果我沒聽錯的話，6 將在 5 之後逐漸增加。如果你能詳細說明將使用的當前應用程序，那將有助於理解該特定節點？

Right.

正確的。

The question is about N6.

問題是關於N6。

It looks like N6 is behind N5 in terms of schedule.

看起來N6在時間表方面落後於N5。

So what is the application?

那麼應用是什麼？

Well, again, I want to reiterate that N6 is coming from the N7, N7+ experience and learning.

好吧，我想再次重申，N6 來自於 N7、N7+ 的經驗和學習。

And so the N6, if you -- a lot of customers are already entering N7 with a lot of tapeouts.

所以N6，如果你——很多客戶已經進入N7，有很多流片。

So N6 provides them a very good path that they can easily port their current products into N6.

所以 N6 為他們提供了一個非常好的途徑，他們可以輕鬆地將他們當前的產品移植到 N6 中。

So gain the benefit of either the performance, the die area and also the shortened cycle time.

因此，獲得性能、芯片面積和縮短週期時間的好處。

N5 is a totally new node.

N5 是一個全新的節點。

So we're entering into a very new area.

所以我們正在進入一個非常新的領域。

If you start to design the N5 today as compared with you want to enter the N6 with N7 already in your pocket, I think N6 will be much easier.

如果你今天開始設計N5，相比你想進入N6，N7已經在你的口袋裡，我認為N6會容易得多。

I cannot say that N5 is difficult, but TSMC will help you to move into N5, of course.

我不能說N5很難，但台積電當然會幫你搬進N5。

But you look at the effort that you build the ecosystem.

但是你看看你建立生態系統的努力。

Ecosystem is the one that's very important for all the product companies want to design their new products.

生態系統對於所有想要設計新產品的產品公司來說都是非常重要的。

N7's ecosystem has been very complete.

N7的生態系統已經非常完整。

We even offer to the automotive grade, okay?

我們甚至提供汽車級，好嗎？

And not to mention about mobile, HPC, everything.

更不用說移動、HPC 等一切了。

The ecosystem are ready, and equally mature will be the N6.

生態系統已經準備就緒，同樣成熟的將是 N6。

Because we're 100% compatible.

因為我們是 100% 兼容的。

Of course, you still have to do some modification.

當然，您仍然需要進行一些修改。

If you want to shrink your die, you have to rerun your timing, closure, those kinds of things.

如果你想縮小你的模具，你必須重新運行你的時間，關閉，那些東西。

But still much easier from N7 go to N6 rather than N7 go to N5.

但是從 N7 到 N6 比從 N7 到 N5 更容易。

And that's the beauty of these 2 technologies.

這就是這兩種技術的美妙之處。

Did I answer the question?

我回答問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Follow-up question from Citi's Roland.

花旗銀行羅蘭的後續問題。

So it looks like 2020 will be a very busy year to you.

所以看起來 2020 年對你來說將是非常忙碌的一年。

You are ramping up N7 plus, N6 and N5 together in the same year.

您將在同一年一起升級 N7 plus、N6 和 N5。

So what kind of revenue growth projection underlying these 3 key technology ramps next year?

那麼，明年這 3 項關鍵技術的增長會帶來什麼樣的收入增長預測呢？

Roland, we don't forecast next year.

羅蘭，我們不預測明年。

And please attend the first quarter next year.

請參加明年第一季度。

Okay.

好的。

Then you have so many new technologies ramp up next year.

那麼明年會有很多新技術出現。

So how about 2021?

那麼2021年呢？

So any new technology?

那麼有什麼新技術嗎？

What kind of new technology you are going to launch in 2021?

您將在 2021 年推出什麼樣的新技術？

Please attend next year's...

請參加明年的...

My next question is for Lora.

我的下一個問題是關於勞拉的。

So I looked at your 20-F.

所以我看了你的20樓。

I think now your total accumulated legal capital reserves have exceeded paid-in capital in 2018.

我認為現在您的累計法定資本儲備總額已經超過了 2018 年的實收資本。

But still, Board of Directors on mid-teen in February have approved to continue appropriating 10% of 2018 net income to legal reserve.

但是，董事會在 2 月中旬仍批准繼續將 2018 年淨收入的 10% 用作法定準備金。

So why don't you just pay this 10% to investors in order to improve your ROE?

那麼你為什麼不把這 10% 的錢付給投資者，以提高你的 ROE 呢？

We are increasing the dividend, and it's all come from retained earnings pool that includes the capital surplus, which we accrue every year.

我們正在增加股息，這一切都來自包括我們每年累積的資本盈餘在內的留存收益池。

So we can choose not to, but we choose to because we want to be more conservative.

所以我們可以選擇不這樣做，但我們選擇這樣做是因為我們想要更加保守。

And if we needed, we can issue dividend from that pool as well.

如果我們需要，我們也可以從該池中發行股息。

So there's no impact to shareholders.

所以對股東沒有影響。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

So it means that from next year, going forward, you will still appropriate at least 10% legal reserve?

那麼就是說，從明年開始，你們還是會撥出至少10%的法定準備金嗎？

Currently, that's how we're thinking.

目前，這就是我們的想法。

Yes.

是的。

We will decide each year, okay?

我們每年都會決定，好嗎？

We have a very big retained earnings pool.

我們有一個非常大的留存收益池。

You know that, okay?

你知道的，好嗎？

Next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is can you give us the numbers of the fabless DOI existing 1Q '19?

我的第一個問題是你能給我們現有 1Q '19 的無晶圓 DOI 的數量嗎？

And what's your expectation by the end of this quarter?

您對本季度末的期望是什麼？

How many days above?

以上幾天？

Probably at the end of 1Q '19, probably around 10 days, roughly, okay?

大概在 19 年第一季度末，大概 10 天左右，好嗎？

This is based on our own calculation, by the way.

順便說一下，這是基於我們自己的計算。

And in the middle of this year, probably reduce down to very low single-digit.

而在今年年中，可能會降至極低的個位數。

That's why we say it's close to the seasonal level.

這就是為什麼我們說它接近季節性水平。

I need to add a little clarification here.

我需要在這裡添加一點說明。

The so-called fabless DOI is according to TSMC's own top 32 fabless customers' DOI.

所謂fabless DOI，就是根據台積電自己的前32名fabless客戶的DOI。

It is not the entire fabless industry.

這不是整個無晶圓廠行業。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

So for -- just also one follow-up on that is the definition of your fabless, does that include some system company?

因此，對於您的無晶圓廠的定義，還有一個後續行動，這是否包括某些系統公司？

No, it's just only the fabless, the pure semiconductor companies?

不，這只是無晶圓廠的純半導體公司？

Okay.

好的。

So I had an impression that earlier the company mentioned that the days of -- fabless days of inventory may continue to stay a few days above seasonal level throughout second half this year.

因此，我的印像是，該公司早些時候曾提到，在今年下半年，無晶圓廠庫存天數可能會繼續比季節性水平高出幾天。

So is that still the case based on the current outlook?

那麼根據目前的前景，情況仍然如此嗎？

Very close to seasonal, so we did not comment a few days above.

非常接近季節性，所以我們在上面幾天沒有發表評論。

No.

不。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

But -- close to seasonal, but maybe not like really at a seasonal level?

但是 - 接近季節性，但可能不像真正的季節性水平？

Well, I would like to say that probably below seasonal level, but we -- it's too early for us.

好吧，我想說這可能低於季節性水平，但我們 - 這對我們來說還為時過早。

We don't have enough data to do all the analysis and too early for us to forecast accurately, say, how many days or below or above, all right?

我們沒有足夠的數據來進行所有分析，而且我們無法準確預測還為時過早，例如，多少天或以下或以上，好嗎？

But we make our own judgment from the wafer loading and the past history's data.

但是我們根據晶圓裝載量和過去的歷史數據做出自己的判斷。

So we make our own calculation, so we observe that their inventory is greatly reduced in the second quarter.

所以我們自己計算，所以我們觀察到他們的庫存在第二季度大大減少了。

We are confident actually that in the middle of this year, we will be very close to the seasonal level.

實際上，我們有信心，在今年年中，我們將非常接近季節性水平。

My second question is on the smartphone growth outlook for this year.

我的第二個問題是關於今年智能手機的增長前景。

Remember last quarter, the company guided smartphone to grow slightly this year.

記得上個季度，該公司引導智能手機今年略有增長。

And now it's like high single-digit.

現在它就像高個位數。

So it seems like about like 5 percentage point higher based on our own calculation.

因此，根據我們自己的計算，它似乎高出大約 5 個百分點。

And I think last time you mentioned about also market share gain, content increase.

我想你上次提到的還有市場份額增加，內容增加。

This time, also the same reason.

這一次，也是同樣的原因。

So I just wonder which of these 2 factors have surprised on the upside in the past 3 months?

所以我只是想知道這兩個因素中的哪一個在過去 3 個月裡令人驚訝？

Well, we gain market share.

好吧，我們獲得了市場份額。

That's -- and actually, our customers gain market share, let me say that.

那是——實際上，我們的客戶獲得了市場份額，讓我這麼說。

And that is kind of good news to TSMC, although we did not forecast that at the beginning of this year.

這對台積電來說是個好消息，儘管我們在今年年初沒有預測到這一點。

Great.

偉大的。

That was actually my follow-up question.

這實際上是我的後續問題。

So in terms of the market share gain and what's a surprise on the upside in the past 3 months, how much of that is your own share gain in the AP or baseband or semiconductor chip?

那麼就市場份額的增長以及過去 3 個月的上行驚喜而言，其中有多少是您自己在 AP 或基帶或半導體芯片中的份額增長？

Or how much of that is your customers gain share, so you benefit?

或者您的客戶獲得了多少份額，從而使您受益？

Which one is more important?

哪個更重要？

How can we separate that one out because of all the high-end smartphones, APs are all in TSMC.

由於所有高端智能手機，我們如何將其分開，AP都在台積電。

So you want me to separate all these customers' gain or TSMC's gain, I cannot separate out.

所以你要我把這些客戶的收益或者台積電的收益分開，我不能分開。

It's all in TSMC.

這一切都在台積電。

Right.

正確的。

Right.

正確的。

But are you -- would you be worried about potential like -- maybe some of your high-end smartphone customers gain share right now, but that might cannibalize some of the -- your other high-end smartphone customers in second half this year?

但是，您是否會擔心潛在的可能，例如您的一些高端智能手機客戶現在獲得了份額，但這可能會在今年下半年蠶食一些其他高端智能手機客戶？

Well, so long as -- so long the high-end smartphone continue to grow or so long TSMC has a very high market share.

好吧，只要——只要高端智能手機繼續增長或者台積電擁有非常高的市場份額。

We just do our job to support them.

我們只是做我們的工作來支持他們。

Okay.

好的。

Dr. Sun, can I just have 1 more follow-up?

孫醫生，我可以再做1次隨訪嗎？

Do you object?

你反對嗎？

There's no objection, so you may continue.

沒有人反對，你可以繼續。

So on the HPC side, also it seems like growth is better than last quarter guidance.

因此，在 HPC 方面，增長似乎也好於上一季度的指導。

I remember it was slight growth without crypto.

我記得在沒有加密的情況下它是輕微的增長。

Now it is high single digit, so also about 5 percent point higher.

現在它是高個位數，因此也高出約 5 個百分點。

I think that C.C. earlier mentioned about is major due to the networking on the 5G deployment.

我認為C.C.前面提到的主要是由於5G部署的網絡。

So is it mainly driven by 1 or 2 few customers or several customers across the board?

那麼它主要是由 1 或 2 個少數客戶還是全線幾個客戶推動的？

In the 5G area, there are many players.

在5G領域，玩家眾多。

And all of them are now very optimistic.

他們現在都非常樂觀。

And so the 5G deployment is faster than we initially planned, okay?

所以 5G 部署比我們最初計劃的要快，好嗎？

That's a trend right now.

這是現在的趨勢。

So we are forecasting higher growth than 3 months ago.

因此，我們預測增長率將高於 3 個月前。

Okay.

好的。

So it's very widespread rather than 1 or 2 chip customers?

所以它非常普遍，而不是 1 或 2 個芯片客戶？

You are right.

你說的對。

JPMorgan's Gokul has a follow-up question.

摩根大通的 Gokul 有一個後續問題。

My first question, I just wanted to clarify.

我的第一個問題，我只是想澄清一下。

I think last time, we mentioned N7+ could be about $1 billion or slightly higher than that of revenue in 2019.

我認為上次我們提到 N7+ 可能會比 2019 年的收入約 10 億美元或略高。

Are we still seeing that or customers are still staying on N7 for this year?

我們是否仍然看到這一點，或者今年客戶仍然留在 N7 上？

We are ramping up N7+ right now, but the revenue for this year is still a little bit less than $1 billion.

我們現在正在增加 N7+，但今年的收入仍然略低於 10 億美元。

And as I just mentioned, next year is that one we try to look at it.

正如我剛才提到的，明年是我們嘗試關注的一年。

I will believe most of the customers will adopt the N6 because that's much easier for them to move into.

我相信大多數客戶會採用 N6，因為這對他們來說更容易進入。

And the benefit is almost the same as N7+.

而且好處和N7+差不多。

So I will say N7+ this year, a little bit below $1 billion.

所以我會說今年是 N7+，略低於 10 億美元。

Next year, it probably won't grow, but N6 will start to pick up.

明年，它可能不會增長，但 N6 會開始回升。

Okay.

好的。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

My second question, Dr. Wei, could you explain a little bit more on what you encompass when you talk about heterogeneous integration?

我的第二個問題，魏博士，您能否再解釋一下您在談論異構集成時所包含的內容？

I think some of your customers have talked about packaging multiple process technologies in the same package.

我認為您的一些客戶已經談到將多種工藝技術封裝在同一個封裝中。

I think some of the customers' forward-running researchers even talked about multiple process in the same wafer.

我認為一些客戶的前瞻性研究人員甚至談到了在同一個晶圓上的多個工藝。

Could you talk a little bit about what is TSMC's vision when we -- when it comes to heterogeneous integration maybe in the next couple of years since you're starting to showcase the technology and potentially going to production?

您能否談一談台積電的願景是什麼？當談到異構集成時，您可能會在未來幾年內開始展示這項技術並可能投入生產？

That is a very complex question to be answered.

這是一個非常複雜的問題，需要回答。

Actually, we're working with the customers and -- different customers has different needs, but the trend on the heterogeneous integration is what we believe that in the future a lot of customers will adopt.

實際上，我們正在與客戶合作，不同的客戶有不同的需求，但異構集成的趨勢是我們相信未來很多客戶會採用的趨勢。

But because of the benefit that when the circuit at some speed now is limited by the connection from the chip to chip, connection chip to chip's communication.

但是由於現在電路在某些速度下受到芯片與芯片之間的連接、芯片與芯片之間的通信的限制的好處。

So that has to be shortened and -- to gain the benefit of your single chip's high performance.

所以必須縮短它，並且——為了獲得單芯片高性能的好處。

So you want to put them together.

所以你想把它們放在一起。

You better to reserve your signal's integrity.

您最好保留信號的完整性。

You better has a very minimal capacitance, minimal inductance, minimal loss in the resistance.

你最好有一個非常小的電容，最小的電感，最小的電阻損耗。

So we -- that's what I say heterogeneous integration become important because we are using the InFO.

所以我們——這就是我所說的異構集成變得很重要，因為我們正在使用 InFO。

We are using the CoWoS to help our customer to integrate all of them together with the most efficient way to connect all the chip together and also extending if you need high bandwidth module that will one of the benefits that using TSMC's CoWoS or InFO and -- so if you ask me what is the application in the future, HPC will be the one that will adopt this kind of process.

我們正在使用 CoWoS 幫助我們的客戶將所有這些集成在一起，以最有效的方式將所有芯片連接在一起，如果您需要高帶寬模塊，也可以擴展，這將是使用 TSMC 的 CoWoS 或 InFO 的好處之一，並且 -所以如果你問我未來的應用是什麼，HPC將是採用這種工藝的那個。

That's the first one to go into.

這是第一個進入的。

But of course, today, mobile smartphone already adopted the InFO technology as you knew already.

但是，當然，今天，移動智能手機已經採用了您已經知道的 InFO 技術。

And more and more of the high-end smartphone and more and more of the HPC's customer will adopt TSMC's advanced packaging method, including heterogeneous integration.

越來越多的高端智能手機和越來越多的HPC客戶將採用台積電先進的封裝方式，包括異構集成。

So then we shouldn't expect that advanced packaging just keeps rising as a percentage of your revenue in a pretty steady manner for the next few years?

那麼，我們不應該期望在未來幾年內，先進封裝佔您收入的百分比會以相當穩定的方式持續上升嗎？

You're right.

你是對的。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

So first of all, that revenue breakdown by application was very helpful.

因此，首先，按應用劃分的收入分類非常有幫助。

Just -- can you give us some clarification.

只是 - 你能給我們一些澄清。

For example, the consumer application on smartphone platform.

例如，智能手機平台上的消費者應用程序。

Can you give us some illustration for this kind of semiconductors?

你能給我們一些關於這種半導體的例子嗎？

What is the consumer application by applying the smartphone platform?

應用智能手機平台的消費應用是什麼？

Or you can just ignore those kind of minor contribution?

或者你可以忽略那些微小的貢獻？

Probably -- I -- do you have any good answer to that one, the consumer inside a smartphone?

可能——我——你對智能手機中的消費者有什麼好的答案嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

You mean the consumer inside smartphone?

你是說智能手機裡面的消費者嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, if you are using the smartphone to do the gaming, can I say it's a consumer function inside a smartphone?

那麼，如果您使用智能手機進行遊戲，我可以說這是智能手機內部的消費功能嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think your definition, for example, for GPU in gaming or for AI or for PC, I think that was clear, right, but you -- now you provide a more breakdown, we really appreciate.

我認為您的定義，例如，遊戲中的 GPU 或 AI 或 PC，我認為這很清楚，對，但是您 - 現在您提供了更多細分，我們非常感謝。

I just wanted to make sure we don't get it wrong.

我只是想確保我們不會弄錯。

Video games is a consumer application now is in HPC and set-top box, digital TV, cordless phone, these are consumer applications now in the digital consumer electronics.

視頻遊戲是一種消費應用，現在在 HPC 和機頂盒、數字電視、無繩電話中，這些都是現在在數字消費電子產品中的消費應用。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

So also my next question is about your supply chain management, right, related to your kind of high inventory level, right?

所以我的下一個問題也是關於你們的供應鏈管理，對吧，與你們的高庫存水平有關，對吧？

So now how is the raw wafer inventory at the foundry.

那麼現在代工廠的原始晶圓庫存情況如何。

And do you plan to reduce some shipment from those raw wafer vendors?

您是否打算減少這些原始晶圓供應商的出貨量？

And also regarding that previous chemical issue, would you get any compensation from your chemical vendors?

還有關於以前的化學品問題，你會從你的化學品供應商那裡得到任何補償嗎？

I will answer first part of the question.

我將回答問題的第一部分。

Our DOI actually included an increase of raw wafer inventory.

我們的 DOI 實際上包括原始晶圓庫存的增加。

So on a Q-o-Q basis, it does increase a few days of our own DOI because we have very low first and second quarter and we have a contract with those wafer companies.

因此，在 Q-O-Q 的基礎上，它確實增加了我們自己的 DOI 幾天，因為我們的第一和第二季度非常低，而且我們與那些晶圓公司簽訂了合同。

But moving to a second half as our demand pick up, those DOI on raw wafer, we'll gradually digest it to a normal level.

但是隨著我們的需求回升，那些原始晶圓上的 DOI 進入下半年，我們將逐漸將其消化到正常水平。

This is the first part of your question.

這是你問題的第一部分。

What is the second question?

第二個問題是什麼？

The chemical issue caused some damage, right?

化學問題造成了一些損害，對吧？

So will you get any reimbursements or compensation from your -- or TSMC will book it as kind of expense?

那麼你會從你的 - 或台積電那裡得到任何報銷或補償嗎？

So what is our...

那麼我們的...

Chemical quality...

化學質量...

The photoresist event, yes, and what we do?

光刻膠事件，是的，我們做什麼？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of financial.

在財務方面。

Do we ask for financial compensation?

我們要求經濟補償嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I have no comment on that one.

我對此沒有任何評論。

Okay.

好的。

No problem.

沒問題。

And also, C.C., regarding your comments about 5-nanometer will have a bigger, larger scale and 7-nanometer because kind of wider applications.

而且，C.C.，關於您對 5 納米的評論，由於應用範圍更廣，7 納米將具有更大、更大的規模。

So my question is that besides exceeding 7-nanometer customers and applications, what will be the new customer or application for 5-nanometer?

所以我的問題是，除了超過 7 納米的客戶和應用之外，5 納米的新客戶或應用會是什麼？

We are -- actually, we are engaging with the new big customers and they are expanding their product portfolio into HPC area and that's what we rely on.

我們 - 實際上，我們正在與新的大客戶接觸，他們正在將他們的產品組合擴展到 HPC 領域，這就是我們所依賴的。

Okay.

好的。

So that's why we say that 5-nanometer's business probably will be bigger than the 7-nanometer.

所以這就是為什麼我們說5納米的業務可能會比7納米更大。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And lastly, I guess on M&A, right, because your subsidiary Vanguard acquired GlobalFoundries' 8" fab early this year, right?

最後，我猜是併購，對吧，因為您的子公司 Vanguard 在今年年初收購了 GlobalFoundries 的 8" 晶圓廠，對吧？

So would you consider to do any M&A from those kind of overseas fab at some point?

那麼你會考慮在某個時候從這些海外工廠進行任何併購嗎？

We don't have a plan right now.

我們現在沒有計劃。

Of course, if there's a good opportunity or everything that meet our strategy, we will consider, but we don't have any plan of M&A right now.

當然，如果有好的機會或者符合我們戰略的一切，我們都會考慮，但我們目前沒有任何併購計劃。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

And follow-up question to Gokul's question regarding the profitability, right?

Gokul 關於盈利能力的問題的後續問題，對嗎？

So I guess last year one big event is that GlobalFoundries exited the leading-edge, right?

所以我想去年的一件大事是格羅方德退出了前沿，對吧？

But if you look at first half gross margin, I think it was much below previous cycle's margin.

但如果你看上半年的毛利率，我認為它遠低於上一周期的毛利率。

So do you think that your bargain power really improved after this industry consolidation?

那麼你認為這次行業整合之後你的議價能力真的提高了嗎？

And how do you think about Samsung's EUV technology compared to your 5- or 6-nanometer?

與您的 5 或 6 納米相比，您如何看待三星的 EUV 技術？

You're talking about margin or profitability.

你說的是利潤率或盈利能力。

Let me say that I think that the first quarter, second quarter's, most of the dip is caused by the 7-nanometer loading.

讓我說，我認為第一季度、第二季度的大部分下降是由 7 納米負載引起的。

The loading is so low that affect our margin by 4 points in the first quarter, by 3 points in the second quarter.

負載如此之低，以至於第一季度我們的利潤率下降了 4 個百分點，第二季度下降了 3 個百分點。

So the loading is actually the dominant one.

所以負載實際上是占主導地位的。

It's not because of others.

不是因為別人。

You're talking about the EUV status compared with my competitor.

你說的是與我的競爭對手相比的 EUV 狀態。

All I can say is we are very confident that we can ramp-up the EUV right now.

我只能說，我們非常有信心現在可以提升 EUV。

And we believe our -- the maturity or the readiness of the EUV technology, TSMC definitely is better than others.

我們相信我們的 - EUV 技術的成熟或準備，台積電肯定比其他人更好。

Follow-up question from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

瑞士信貸、Randy Abrams 的後續問題。

I just have 2 quick follow-ups.

我只有 2 次快速跟進。

One for Lora on the dividend.

一個給洛拉的股息。

Since you're moving to quarterly in first quarter approving for fourth quarter this year, next quarter would you declare for first quarter of 2020?

由於您將在第一季度批准今年第四季度的季度，下個季度您會宣布 2020 年第一季度嗎？

And is it the view for 2020 you'll declare quarterly or will get a set amount for the full year next year?

2020 年的觀點是每季度公佈一次，還是明年全年獲得固定金額？

After the shareholder meeting, we'll declare the $2, which is the first quarter dividend, will be paid in fourth quarter this year.

股東大會結束後，我們將宣布第一季度股息2美元將在今年第四季度支付。

And so every quarter from then, we will declare cash dividend and will be paid within 6 months.

所以從那以後的每個季度，我們都會宣布現金分紅，並將在6個月內支付。

So first quarter next year, you will get a dividend from our board approval in third quarter this year.

因此，明年第一季度，您將在今年第三季度獲得我們董事會批准的股息。

So that will continue going on.

所以這將繼續進行。

Did I make myself clear?

我說清楚了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That part is clear.

那部分很清楚。

And then so every quarter we'll declare, but is there a goal...

然後每個季度我們都會宣布，但是有沒有目標......

Yes.

是的。

Every quarter, we will declare dividend.

每個季度，我們都會宣派股息。

Okay.

好的。

And so your goal then for each year to still be stable or can it rise through...

所以你每年的目標是保持穩定還是可以通過......

Yes.

是的。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Stable.

穩定的。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then one follow-up to just Charlie on the margins.

然後是邊緣上的查理的後續行動。

Just relative to the revision you made, sales actually came in a little bit better, but the gross margin came in toward the lower end of the range.

僅相對於您所做的修改，銷售額實際上稍微好一點，但毛利率接近該範圍的低端。

I guess just relative if there were some factors that you saw in the last month that might have affected near term because it looks like by medium term, you have margin getting back toward 50.

如果您在上個月看到的某些因素可能會影響近期的影響，我想這只是相對的，因為從中期來看，您的利潤率會回到 50。

Actually, when we gave the guidance on February, it's a range, right?

實際上，當我們在二月份給出指導時，它是一個範圍，對吧？

So we are still within the range.

所以我們還在範圍內。

So there are a few factors may have swing the gross margin, photoresist definitely one.

所以有幾個因素可能會影響毛利率，光刻膠肯定是其中之一。

Actually, the actual number was slightly deviated from what we have said in February, but still within the range, okay?

其實實際的數字和我們二月份說的有一點偏差，但還在範圍之內，好嗎？

Going forward, as I said in my remarks, we are thinking the 50% gross margin is still a good target for us.

展望未來，正如我在講話中所說，我們認為 50% 的毛利率對我們來說仍然是一個不錯的目標。

I really mean if we can achieve better utilization, we can go back to 50, but it will be depending on each quarter's demand profile.

我的意思是，如果我們能夠實現更好的利用率，我們可以回到 50，但這將取決於每個季度的需求情況。

I'm not ready to give you third quarter and fourth quarter separately, but what I can say is our gross margin will improve in third quarter and we will further improve in fourth quarter.

我還沒準備好分別給你第三季度和第四季度，但我可以說的是我們的毛利率會在第三季度提高，我們將在第四季度進一步提高。

Now with this very positive note on the margins and also as our CEO said, we have passed the bottom of the cycle for our business and we are launching the industry's competitive leading-edge technologies, With volume production already taken place using EUV.

現在有了這個非常積極的利潤率，而且正如我們的首席執行官所說，我們的業務已經度過了周期的底部，我們正在推出行業具有競爭力的領先技術，並且已經使用 EUV 進行了批量生產。

I think let's end our conference today with such a high note.

我想讓我們以如此高調的聲音結束今天的會議。

Thank you for coming to our event today, and we hope to see you next quarter.

感謝您今天參加我們的活動，我們希望在下個季度見到您。

Thank you.

謝謝你。