台積電 ADR (TSM) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外文）歡迎參加台積電2018年第二季度財報發布會及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊高級總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As this conference is viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

（操作員說明） 由於本次會議面向全球投資者觀看，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2018, followed by our guidance for the third quarter.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們 2018 年第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對第三季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電首席執行官 C.C.魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

隨後，台積電董事長劉馬克博士將主持問答環節，三位高管將解答大家的提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of today's press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有今天的新聞稿副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statement that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now, I would like to turn the microphone to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將麥克風轉向台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，請她總結運營情況和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth, Good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝伊麗莎白，大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I will first summarize our second quarter financial results and then provide the guidance for the third quarter.

我將首先總結我們第二季度的財務業績，然後提供第三季度的指導。

Our second quarter revenue was USD 7.85 billion, a decrease of 7.2% sequentially, but an increase of 11.2% year-over-year.

我們第二季度收入為 78.5 億美元，環比下降 7.2%，但同比增長 11.2%。

In NT dollars, revenue declined 6% sequentially mainly due to the impact from mobile product seasonality.

以新台幣計算，營收環比下降 6%，主要是受到移動產品季節性的影響。

Gross margin was 47.8% in the second quarter, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points versus first quarter.

第二季度毛利率為47.8%，較第一季度下降2.5個百分點。

About 2 percentage points of the decrease was attributable to the absence of the favorable inventory valuation that I had mentioned in April, while the remainder was attributable to a lower level of capacity utilization, partially offset by cost improvements and slightly more favorable foreign exchange rate.

大約2個百分點的下降歸因於我在4月份提到的有利庫存估值的缺失，而其餘的下降歸因於產能利用率較低，部分被成本改善和稍微有利的外匯匯率所抵消。

Operating expenses ratio was 11.3% as our revenue decreased more than our expense decreased.

營業費用率為 11.3%，因為我們的收入下降幅度大於費用下降幅度。

Operating margin decreased 2.8 percentage points Q-over-Q to reach 36.2% in the second quarter.

第二季度營業利潤率環比下降 2.8 個百分點，達到 36.2%。

As I said during the last quarterly conference, the corporate tax rate was increased to 17.5% in the second quarter as we accrued the 10% tax on undistributed retained earnings, the tax rate will fall back to 10% to 11% level in the second half, and the full year tax rate will be about 12%.

正如我在上一季度會議上所說，第二季度企業稅率提高到17.5%，因為我們對未分配留存收益徵收了10%的稅，第二季度稅率將回落到10%至11%的水平一半，全年稅率約為12%。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was $2.79 and ROE was 18.7%.

總體而言，我們第二季度的 EPS 為 2.79 美元，ROE 為 18.7%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們看看按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。

During the second quarter, Communication and Industrial standard decreased 14% and 1%, respectively, while Computer and Consumer increased by 34% and 23%, respectively.

第二季度，通信和工業標準分別下降14%和1%，而計算機和消費者分別增長34%和23%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看按技術劃分的收入。

We begin volume production of 7-nanometer process technology in the second quarter.

我們在第二季度開始量產 7 納米工藝技術。

The revenue contribution was less than 1% in second quarter, and it will ramp to above 10% in the third quarter.

第二季度營收貢獻不足1%，第三季度將提升至10%以上。

10-nanometer contributed 13% of total wafer revenue during the second quarter, while the combined revenue from 16- and 20-nanometer accounted for 25%, and 28-nanometer was 23%.

第二季度10納米佔晶圓總收入的13%，16納米和20納米合計收入佔25%，28納米佔23%。

Advanced technologies defined as 28-nanometer and more accounted for 61% of total wafer revenue.

28 納米及以上的先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 61%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

繼續看資產負債表。

We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 749 billion, an increase of TWD 65 billion from the first quarter.

截至第二季度末，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 7,490 億，比第一季度增加了 650 億新台幣。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 121 billion as we accrued about TWD 208 billion for cash dividends, which will be paid out today.

負債方面，流動負債增加1,210億元新台幣，因現金股利計提約2,080億元新台幣，將於今日派發。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 4 days to 38 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 4 天至 38 天。

Days of inventory increased 11 days to 74 days primarily due to the ramp-up of 7-nanometer, which has a longer cycle time and a slightly increase in raw wafers.

庫存天數增加 11 天至 74 天，主要是由於週期時間較長的 7 納米工藝的增加以及原始晶圓的略有增加。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 130 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 60 billion in capital expenditures.

第二季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1,300 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 600 億新台幣的資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD 70 billion.

結果，我們產生了 700 億新台幣的自由現金流。

Overall, cash balance increased by TWD 54 billion to TWD 632 billion at the end of the second quarter.

總體而言，第二季度末現金餘額增加了 540 億新台幣，達到 6,320 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, the capital expenditures spent in the first half of the 2018 totaled USD 4.5 billion.

以美元計算，2018年上半年的資本支出總額為45億美元。

Now I have finished my financial summary of the second quarter.

現在我已經完成了第二季度的財務摘要。

Now let me provide you the third quarter guidance.

現在讓我為您提供第三季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect third quarter revenue to be between USD 8.45 billion and USD 8.55 billion, which is an 8.2% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季度營收將在 84.5 億美元至 85.5 億美元之間，環比中值增長 8.2%。

Based on exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.50, our third quarter gross margin is expected to be between 48% and 50%.

根據1美元兌換30.50新台幣的匯率假設，我們第三季度的毛利率預計在48%至50%之間。

And our third quarter operating margin is expected to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

我們第三季度的營業利潤率預計在 36.5% 至 38.5% 之間。

This concludes my financial summary.

我的財務摘要到此結束。

Now let me make remarks on capital expenditure and profitability.

現在讓我談談資本支出和盈利能力。

I'll first talk about the capital expenditure.

我首先談談資本支出。

In our last Investor Conference in April, we stated our 2018 CapEx budget to be between USD 11.5 billion to USD 12 billion.

在 4 月份的上一次投資者會議上，我們表示 2018 年資本支出預算在 115 億美元至 120 億美元之間。

However, we now plan to trim our CapEx budget by about USD 1.5 billion and expect our 2018 CapEx to be between USD 10 billion and USD 10.5 billion.

然而，我們現在計劃將資本支出預算削減約 15 億美元，預計 2018 年資本支出將在 100 億美元至 105 億美元之間。

The reduction of 2018 CapEx come from the following 3 factors.

2018年資本支出的減少來自以下三個因素。

The first one, about USD 700 million came from delay of payment to 2019 due to leading edge tool relocation schedule adjustment.

第一個約為 7 億美元，是由於前沿工具搬遷計劃調整而導致付款延遲至 2019 年。

However, the planned capacity remained unchanged.

然而，計劃產能保持不變。

Second, about USD 600 million comes from efficiency gains that allow us to spend less on tools.

其次，約 6 億美元來自效率提升，這使我們能夠減少在工具上的支出。

Third, about USD 200 million comes from the U.S. dollar appreciation against euro and Japanese yen.

第三，約2億美元來自美元對歐元、日元升值。

My second remark is regarding profitability.

我的第二句話是關於盈利能力。

Now I will talk about third quarter '18 gross margin and the overall outlook of our profitability.

現在我將談談 18 年第三季度的毛利率和我們盈利能力的整體前景。

Our third quarter gross margin is expected to improve from second quarter by more than 1 percentage point.

我們第三季度的毛利率預計將比第二季度提高1個百分點以上。

The increase mainly comes from better utilization rate, more favorable foreign exchange rate and improved profitability of our back-end business, offset, however, by the unfavorable technology mix, which include the ramp of 7-nanometer that is expected to dilute our gross margin by more than 1 percentage point in the third quarter, and the lower contribution from 28-nanometer.

這一增長主要來自於更好的利用率、更有利的匯率以及後端業務盈利能力的提高，但被不利的技術組合所抵消，其中包括預計將稀釋我們毛利率的7納米技術的增長第三季度增長超過1個百分點，其中28納米的貢獻較低。

The net gain in gross margin, therefore, is expected to be slightly more than 1 percentage point.

因此，毛利率淨收益預計將略高於 1 個百分點。

That said, TSMC's financial objectives remain unchanged.

儘管如此，台積電的財務目標保持不變。

Our goal is to achieve revenue and net income compound annual growth rate in the next few years to be between 5% and 10% in U.S. dollars, gross margin to be about 50%, operating margin to be about 39% and ROE to be above 20%.

我們的目標是未來幾年實現收入和淨利潤複合增長率以美元計算在5%至10%之間，毛利率約為50%，營業利潤率約為39%，ROE高於20%。

This ends my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Now let me turn the microphone to C.C. for his comments.

現在讓我把麥克風轉向 C.C.徵求他的意見。

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，下午好。

Let me start with our near-term demand outlook.

讓我從我們的近期需求前景開始。

We conclude our second quarter with revenue of TWD 233.3 billion or USD 7.5 -- USD 7.85 billion, in line with our guidance given 3 months ago.

我們第二季度的收入為 2,333 億新台幣，即 7.5 美元至 78.5 億美元，與我們 3 個月前給出的指導一致。

This result reflected mainly a stronger demand from high-performance computing, including cryptocurrency mining, but it was offset by seasonal decline in high-end smartphones.

這一結果主要反映了包括加密貨幣挖礦在內的高性能計算的強勁需求，但被高端智能手機的季節性下滑所抵消。

Moving into third quarter 2018.

進入2018年第三季度。

Our business is expected to benefit from new product launches using TSMC's industry-leading 7-nanometer technology, while cryptocurrency mining demand will decline due to weakening cryptocurrency prices.

我們的業務預計將受益於採用台積電業界領先的 7 納米技術的新產品的推出，而加密貨幣挖礦需求將因加密貨幣價格疲軟而下降。

That being said, we do see slight improvement in smartphone demand in second half of this year as compared to our forecast 3 months ago.

話雖如此，與 3 個月前的預測相比，我們確實看到今年下半年智能手機需求略有改善。

GPU demand for AI in the gaming continue to increase.

遊戲中AI對GPU的需求持續增加。

For the full year of 2018, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, will grow by 5% while foundry is expected to grow by about 7%.

對於2018年全年，我們預測整個半導體市場（不包括內存）將增長5%，而代工預計將增長7%左右。

We forecast TSMC's 2018 revenue in U.S. dollar will grow by a high single-digit rate rather than the previously stated about 10% due to general weakness in cryptocurrency mining demand.

由於加密貨幣挖礦需求普遍疲軟，我們預計台積電 2018 年美元收入將以高個位數增長，而不是之前所說的 10% 左右。

Now let me move to long-term business growth driver.

現在讓我談談長期業務增長動力。

As we stated 3 months ago that we are optimistic about the development of the industry's mega trend, particularly AI and 5G communication.

正如我們三個月前所說，我們看好行業大趨勢的發展，特別是人工智能和5G通信。

Recently, we have observed more promising development.

最近，我們觀察到了更有希望的發展。

For example, we see AI continues to fast proliferate from data center to edge server and to end client devices.

例如，我們看到人工智能繼續從數據中心快速擴散到邊緣服務器和終端客戶端設備。

As for 5G, major operators in several countries have roll out the development schedule, while multiple ODMs and IC vendors have planned their 5G products, which are set to ramp in the coming 2 years.

5G方面，多個國家主要運營商已推出研發時間表，多家ODM和IC廠商也已規劃5G產品，預計未來2年量產。

Despite the slowing unit growth in smartphones in the near term, we expect the development of 5G while fuel the next wave of smartphone growth both in units and in silicon content.

儘管短期內智能手機銷量增長放緩，但我們預計 5G 的發展將推動下一波智能手機銷量和芯片含量的增長。

In HPC, we expect the increasing workload in data center and complexity of AI will boost the demand for AI accelerator, GPU and CPU in server.

在高性能計算方面，我們預計數據中心工作負載的增加和人工智能的複雜性將增加對服務器中人工智能加速器、GPU和CPU的需求。

We also expect the introduction of next-generation video gaming will add growth of HPC.

我們還預計下一代視頻遊戲的推出將促進 HPC 的增長。

We believe all our 4 core platforms -- smartphone, HPC, IoT and automotive -- are well positioned to benefit from the longer-term mega trend of AI and 5G.

我們相信，我們的所有 4 個核心平台——智能手機、高性能計算、物聯網和汽車——都能夠從人工智能和 5G 的長期大趨勢中受益。

With our leading and comprehensive technology offering our vast capacity and our policy of not competing with customers, we will be able to support our customers to expand their markets and, therefore, fuel our future growth.

憑藉我們領先和全面的技術提供的巨大產能以及我們不與客戶競爭的政策，我們將能夠支持我們的客戶擴大他們的市場，從而推動我們未來的增長。

Let me talk about N7 ramp-up status.

先說一下N7的啟動狀態。

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology is leading in the industry.

台積電的7納米技術在業界處於領先地位。

It has the best performance, power and area density, and its schedule is ahead of competition.

它具有最佳的性能、功率和麵積密度，並且其進度領先於競爭對手。

For the tape-outs that we have completed for customers, all have very good yield and performance.

對於我們為客戶完成的流片，都有非常好的良率和性能。

We forecast a total of more than 50 customer product tape-outs by end of this year from a wide range of applications covering mobile, server CPU, network processor, gaming, GPU, FPGA, cryptocurrency, automotive and AI.

我們預計，到今年年底，共有超過 50 個客戶產品流片，涵蓋移動、服務器 CPU、網絡處理器、遊戲、GPU、FPGA、加密貨幣、汽車和人工智能等廣泛應用。

Our 7-nanometer is already in volume production and accounted for less than 1 percent of our total wafer revenue in second quarter.

我們的 7 納米已經投入量產，佔第二季度晶圓總收入的不到 1%。

It's expected to jump to more than 10% of our wafer revenue in third quarter and is estimated to contribute more than 20% revenue for us in fourth quarter this year.

預計第三季度它將躍升至我們晶圓收入的 10% 以上，預計今年第四季度將為我們貢獻 20% 以上的收入。

Let me talk about the N7+ and EUV.

先說說N7+和EUV。

Our 7-nanometer-plus or N7+ can leverage the success of our N7 and enjoy 15% to 20% better gate density and more than 10% power reduction.

我們的 7 納米以上或 N7+ 可以利用 N7 的成功，將柵極密度提高 15% 至 20%，並將功耗降低 10% 以上。

With a few EUV layers replacing certain immersion lithography process, we are able to have fewer masking layers, shorter cycle time and less process complexity.

通過用一些 EUV 層取代某些浸沒式光刻工藝，我們能夠擁有更少的掩模層、更短的周期時間和更低的工藝複雜性。

Therefore, we expect to achieve better yield as compared to our N7.

因此，與我們的 N7 相比，我們期望獲得更好的良率。

Furthermore, as we have fine-tuned all the advanced equipment to their optimum condition due to the ramp-up of both our 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies, we believe we can leverage our production learning to 7+ and enjoy the industries of best defect density among our peers' comparable technologies.

此外，由於我們的 10 納米和 7 納米技術的提升，我們已將所有先進設備調整到最佳狀態，我們相信我們可以利用我們的生產學習達到 7+，並享受同行同類技術中缺陷密度最佳。

The silicon results from our N7+ today are very encouraging.

今天我們 N7+ 的芯片結果非常令人鼓舞。

The lead N7+ product has tape-out early this month, and we expect to receive a few more tape-outs by end of this year.

主要的 N7+ 產品已於本月初流片，我們預計到今年年底將收到更多流片。

Volume production will start Q2 next year.

量產將於明年第二季度開始。

That is Q2 2019, which will be the world's first EUV foundry production by that time.

那是2019年第二季度，屆時將是全球首個EUV代工量產。

We have made ready multiple EUV scanners to support not only the N7+ development but also N5 development.

我們準備了多台 EUV 掃描儀，不僅支持 N7+ 開發，還支持 N5 開發。

Our silicon data have proved all the benefits we expect from process simplification with EUV.

我們的芯片數據證明了我們期望通過 EUV 簡化工藝所帶來的所有好處。

In addition, we have also started our N3 technology development using EUV.

此外，我們還開始了使用EUV的N3技術開發。

Now let me talk about the EUV status.

現在我來談談EUV的現狀。

Good progress continued to be made in the EUV infrastructure in the last few months.

過去幾個月，EUV 基礎設施繼續取得良好進展。

They include photoresist, mask defect and yield, pellicle defects and transmission.

它們包括光刻膠、掩模缺陷和成品率、薄膜缺陷和透射率。

Beside the silicon development, EUV technology continues to mature toward high-volume production.

除了矽開發之外，EUV 技術也不斷走向大批量生產的成熟。

We have achieved 250 watts source upgrade in April, and the tools are running smoothly with minimum degradation and high level of uptime.

我們在 4 月份實現了 250 瓦電源升級，工具運行平穩，性能下降最小，正常運行時間較長。

In summary, we started EUV development work early, and we have secured the largest number of EUV tools among our peers to be ready for 2019 volume production for N7+ and 2020 volume production for N5.

綜上所述，我們很早就開始了EUV開發工作，並且已經獲得了同行中最多的EUV工具，為2019年N7+的量產和2020年N5的量產做好了準備。

Let me talk about N5.

先說N5。

Our 5-nanometer technology, N5 is progressing well.

我們的 5 納米技術 N5 進展順利。

The 256 megabits SRAM yield is 1 quarter ahead of schedule, and the device performance is well on track.

256 兆位 SRAM 產量比原計劃提前了 1 個季度，並且器件性能進展順利。

TSMC's N5 will begin risk production in first half 2019.

台積電的N5將於2019年上半年開始風險生產。

We believe it will be the most advanced technology in the foundry industry by that time.

我們相信到那時這將是鑄造行業最先進的技術。

We are actively engaging with several lead customers, and we are running their test chip now.

我們正在積極與幾家主要客戶合作，現在正在運行他們的測試芯片。

We expect to receive first customer product tape-out in first half 2019.

我們預計將於 2019 年上半年收到第一批客戶產品流片。

Volume production is expect to start in first half 2020.

預計將於 2020 年上半年開始量產。

I'm talking about now with our specialty technology.

我現在談論的是我們的專業技術。

We work closely with our customer to accelerate our specialty technology roadmap.

我們與客戶密切合作，加速我們的專業技術路線圖。

By leveraging our logic capability, we develop specialty technology features, such as MEMS, CMOS image sensor, high-voltage power management IC, emerging and embedded memories and analog.

通過利用我們的邏輯能力，我們開發專業技術功能，例如 MEMS、CMOS 圖像傳感器、高壓電源管理 IC、新興和嵌入式存儲器和模擬。

To more advanced node, including 55-, 40-nanometer and 28-, 22-nanometer.

到更先進的節點，包括55、40納米和28、22納米。

These efforts bring scaling benefit to our customers.

這些努力為我們的客戶帶來了規模效益。

Our 22ULP process is qualified and on track for risk production in August.

我們的 22ULP 工藝已合格，並有望在 8 月份進行風險生產。

That is next month.

那就是下個月了。

About 40 customer product tape-outs using our N22 are planned in the next few quarters, covering a broad spectrum of applications from digital TV, consumer electronics, to IoT and RF connectivity.

計劃在未來幾個季度內進行約 40 個使用我們的 N22 的客戶產品流片，涵蓋從數字電視、消費電子產品到物聯網和射頻連接的廣泛應用。

N22 have 15% performance gain, 25% power reduction, and 5% to 10% die area shrink when compared with N28.

與 N28 相比，N22 性能提升 15%，功耗降低 25%，芯片面積縮小 5% 至 10%。

With these improvements, we expect our N22 will extend our leadership at 28-nanometer node and enjoy a long and successful economical life.

通過這些改進，我們預計 N22 將擴大我們在 28 納米節點的領先地位，並享受長期而成功的經濟壽命。

Since we have already built a broad technology capacity at 12-inch for various specialty technologies, we are migrating some of our customers' product from 8-inch to 12-inch with seamless transition, while our customer can enjoy flexible capacity support and further scaling benefit.

由於我們已經在 12 英寸上建立了針對各種專業技術的廣泛技術能力，因此我們正在將部分客戶的產品從 8 英寸無縫過渡到 12 英寸，同時我們的客戶可以享受靈活的產能支持和進一步擴展益處。

And that's all.

就這樣。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

（操作員說明）將從現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Now, let's begin the Q&A session.

（操作員說明） 現在，讓我們開始問答環節。

First question will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

第一個問題將由瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出。

The first question I had on the 28-nanometer.

我的第一個問題是關於 28 納米的。

You talked last quarter about it being a bit under-utilized.

您上個季度談到它的利用率有點不足。

Could you talk about now your confidence to backfill that node?

您現在能談談您回填該節點的信心嗎？

And last quarter, you mentioned a big mask investment.

上個季度，您提到了一項大型掩模投資。

How much of that is tied to some of these backfill activities versus the mask writer investment for some of the advanced applications?

其中有多少與某些回填活動和某些高級應用程序的掩模寫入器投資有關？

So you have 2 questions.

所以你有兩個問題。

The first one is 28 nanometers loading and...

第一個是 28 納米加載和...

And 28 loading your confidence to get that loaded, the type of applications.

28 加載您有信心加載該類型的應用程序。

Second part of that is the mask investment.

第二部分是掩模投資。

How much of that is tied to these backfill applications versus advanced capacity?

其中有多少與這些回填應用程序和高級容量相關？

All right.

好的。

In my statement, I say that we improved 28-nanometer to 22.

在我的聲明中，我說我們將 28 納米改進為 22 納米。

And now, a lot of 28-nanometers tape-outs have been changed to 22-nanometer.

而現在，很多28納米流片已經改為22納米。

And we start to ramping up 22-nanometer next month.

下個月我們將開始加速 22 納米工藝的生產。

It will take probably a few quarters so that 22-nanometer volume will be high.

可能需要幾個季度才能達到 22 納米的體積。

So I expect that after few quarters, the 28-nanometer node, the confidence to fully utilize high -- is high.

因此，我預計幾個季度後，充分利用 28 納米節點的信心很高。

Now you're talking about...

現在你正在談論...

Can I add to this one.

我可以添加到這個嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Regarding your question, by the way thank you, and good afternoon everyone that joined this conference and also the online participants, particularly on this hot summer afternoon.

關於您的問題，順便謝謝您，參加本次會議的各位以及在線參與者下午好，特別是在這個炎熱的夏日午後。

On 28-nanometer, this is the eighth year of our 28 production, and inevitably the competition is coming gradually.

在28納米上，今年是我們生產28的第八個年頭，不可避免地競爭正在逐漸到來。

And with some expectation, they build capacities.

帶著某種期望，他們建立了能力。

But the 28-nanometer has a lot of nuance in it.

但 28 納米有很多細微差別。

You have high performance.

你有很高的表現。

They're a different grade of speed.

他們的速度等級不同。

Now C.C. is talking about additional sub-node 22-nanometer.

現在，C.C.正在談論22納米的附加子節點。

I think the under-loading will be a -- temporary, and we intend to backfill this capacity based on our technology differentiation.

我認為負載不足將是暫時的，我們打算根據我們的技術差異來補充這一容量。

So Randy, your second question is we invest in mask capacity.

蘭迪，你的第二個問題是我們投資口罩產能。

Very high CapEx last quarter for mask.

上個季度掩模的資本支出非常高。

Just what was the purpose or what applications you were tied to this high capacity relative to history that you've called out the mask CapEx?

相對於歷史而言，您調用掩模資本支出的高容量的目的是什麼，或者您與哪些應用程序相關聯？

Still -- actually, we invest our mask capacity because of a leading-edge node.

儘管如此，實際上，我們還是因為領先的節點而投資了掩模產能。

Most of it is because of leading-edge node because it's very complicated in making the masks and many layers.

大部分是因為前沿節點，因為製作掩模和層數非常複雜。

Related to 28 is part of it because we still have a very high activity in 28-nanometer node.

與28相關的是它的一部分，因為我們在28納米節點仍然有非常高的活動。

Actually, still that's #1, #2 tape-outs account for TSMC total tape-outs.

事實上，這仍然是台積電流片總數中的#1、#2。

Okay.

好的。

So it sounds like it's both 28-plus for the 7-nanometer for the mask?

所以聽起來掩模的 7 納米都是 28 以上？

And 16.

還有16。

The second question I have on cryptocurrency.

我的第二個問題是關於加密貨幣的。

In the past, it was on a lagging node like 28 and 16, where it was filling capacity as a second-wave application.

過去，它在28和16這樣的滯後節點上，作為第二波應用程序填充容量。

How do you view crypto?

您如何看待加密貨幣？

It's slowing in second half?

下半年會放緩嗎？

But how do you view devoting new capacity as crypto to get the best performance and power want to move to 7. So how do you see that market and also devoting capacity if it becomes more of a first-wave application?

但是，您如何看待將新容量投入到加密貨幣中以獲得最佳性能和功率，並希望遷移到 7。那麼，如果它更像是第一波應用程序，您如何看待這個市場以及投入容量呢？

Well, cryptocurrency all related to the hash rate.

好吧，加密貨幣都與哈希率有關。

So naturally, they will move to very high-end leading-edge technologies to improve the performance and lower down the power consumption.

因此，他們自然會轉向非常高端的前沿技術，以提高性能並降低功耗。

Whether that will be that at the same time as a high loading when we move into the leading edge that I -- probably, we cannot say that.

當我們進入前沿時，這是否會同時成為高負載，我們可能不能這麼說。

It's volatile in the business.

它在業務中不穩定。

You knew it, and it's continued to depend on the cryptocurrency's pricing, so we don't plan our capacity because of that.

你知道，它繼續取決於加密貨幣的定價，所以我們不會因此而規劃我們的容量。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) Bill Lu 提出。

Lora talked about a slightly lower CapEx, and $600 million of that is from the efficiency gains.

Lora 談到資本支出略低，其中 6 億美元來自效率提升。

Can you talk a little bit more about that?

您能多談談嗎？

Is that mostly from 7-nanometers?

主要是 7 納米嗎？

Or where is the gains coming from?

或者說收益從哪裡來？

Okay.

好的。

The $600 million efficiency gains actually cover various area.

6 億美元的效率收益實際上涵蓋了各個領域。

Number one is process simplifications.

第一是流程簡化。

If you have a simpler process, you don't need to buy that much tools, #1.

如果您的流程更簡單，則無需購買那麼多工具，#1。

And we also share tools between R&D and operations.

我們還在研發和運營之間共享工具。

If we can find more opportunity to share, we don't have to buy that much tool, okay.

如果我們能找到更多分享的機會，我們就不用買那麼多工具了，好吧。

The third one is that, relating to the backend equipments.

第三個是關於後端設備的。

We do see with effort from TSMC and customer jointly do see a chance for reductions.

我們確實看到，通過台積電和客戶的共同努力，確實看到了削減的機會。

So those are the few areas that we classify as efficiency gain.

這些是我們歸類為效率增益的少數領域。

Of course, you know we are always doing that, and we just have results coming right now.

當然，你知道我們一直在這樣做，而且我們現在才取得成果。

Lora, I can add more color to that.

洛拉，我可以為此添加更多色彩。

What we call efficiency is that.

我們所說的效率就是這樣。

Let me tell you, we planned customers' product out.

讓我告訴你，我們已經計劃好了客戶的產品。

So you need some kind of processing cycle time.

所以你需要某種處理週期時間。

You need to buy the tool.

你需要購買該工具。

Tool has a lead time.

工具有交貨時間。

So now we improve our process cycle time quite a lot.

所以現在我們大大提高了流程週期時間。

So now you don't have to buy the tools so early.

所以現在你不必那麼早購買工具了。

One.

一。

The tool vendor work with us, so they also shorten the lead time.

工具供應商與我們合作，因此他們也縮短了交貨時間。

So we don't need to buy so early, and that's what we call part of the reason of that called efficiency improvement.

所以我們不需要那麼早購買，這就是我們所說的效率提高的部分原因。

It is continued to improve.

它正在持續改進。

That's progressing every day, every month.

這每天、每個月都在進步。

I guess, I'm just wondering how much of it is one-time?

我想，我只是想知道其中有多少是一次性的？

And how much of it can I translate into lower CapEx going forward?

其中有多少可以轉化為未來較低的資本支出？

It was our continuous effort because of it's our job to shorten the cycle time.

這是我們不斷的努力，因為縮短週期時間是我們的工作。

Usually, if we ramp up a new technology, the cycle times will be longer.

通常，如果我們推出一項新技術，週期時間就會更長。

Now we are getting better.

現在我們正在變得更好。

We're getting very aggressive and very competitive cycle time, and so that's why we can cut it.

我們的周期時間變得非常積極和有競爭力，因此我們可以縮短它。

Last follow-up on that.

最後的後續行動。

So I don't know the exact number of it, but I think the company has said CapEx next several years, if I'm not mistaken, $10 billion to $11 billion?

所以我不知道確切的數字，但我認為該公司已經說過未來幾年的資本支出（如果我沒記錯的話）是 100 億到 110 億美元？

So do you want to comment on that whether there's any new thinking or changes?

那麼您是否想評論一下這方面是否有新的思考或變化？

Of course, number is kind of a rolling forecast.

當然，數字是一種滾動預測。

As far as we can see, it's still within that range, and the CapEx intensity, as I said earlier, is somehow between 25% to 30%.

據我們所知，它仍然在這個範圍內，而且正如我之前所說，資本支出強度在 25% 到 30% 之間。

We're still with that view.

我們仍然持這種觀點。

My second question is on the 7-nanometers.

我的第二個問題是關於7納米的。

It sounds like it's progressing quite well and maybe slightly ahead of plan in terms of your yield improvement and such.

聽起來進展順利，在產量提高等方面可能稍微提前於計劃。

Can you just talk about the yield and the improvements that you're making there versus the previous couple of nodes, maybe 10 and 16?

您能否談談與之前的幾個節點（可能是 10 個和 16 個）相比，您在那裡所做的產量和改進？

The yield is progressing very well.

產量進展非常順利。

Performance is good.

性能良好。

As compared with previous node, it's comparable probably a little bit better.

與之前的節點相比，它的可比性可能要好一些。

But I cannot give you exact.

但我無法給你確切的信息。

Basically, 7-nanometer we just have a better architecture and make the yield improvement easier.

基本上，7納米我們只是有更好的架構，讓良率提升更容易。

Will that imply that you get to corporate average gross margin a little bit earlier as well?

這是否意味著您也會提前一點達到企業平均毛利率？

I think the rule of thumb, I said, about 8 quarter from mass production into quarterly average is about the same.

我認為經驗法則，我說過，從量產到季度平均大約8個季度是差不多的。

We have seen that for every nodes have that kind of pattern.

我們已經看到每個節點都有這種模式。

There's no exception this time.

這次也不例外。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行 Michael Chou 提出。

The first question is actually for 28 follow-up.

第一個問題其實是針對28個後續的。

You mentioned after few quarters, your UTR for 28 all relatively should improve.

您提到幾個季度後，您的 28 的 UTR 都相對應該有所改善。

So is that under the assumption of the same capacity this year?

那麼這是在今年產能相同的情況下嗎？

And do you think the next year total 28-, 22-nanometer sales will be up year-over-year?

您認為明年 28 納米、22 納米的總銷量會同比增長嗎？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Michael, let me tell you that TSMC continued to improve the productivity.

Michael，我告訴你，台積電的生產力持續提高。

So actually even with those spend, the CapEx, the capacity continued to increase.

因此，實際上即使有了這些支出，資本支出，容量仍在繼續增加。

So that every year, when we're talking about our business versus the UTR, actually, the capacity continued to increase.

因此，每年，當我們談論我們的業務與 UTR 時，實際上，容量都在持續增加。

And your question is the revenue?

你的問題是收入？

Yes.

是的。

Will 28/22-nanometer together be up year-on-year in 2019 and do you maintain the same -- I shouldn't say maintain the same.

2019 年 28/22 納米會同比增長嗎？你會保持不變嗎？我不應該說保持不變。

Given under-utilized 28-nanometer, would you consider converting 28 node capacity to advanced node going forward or you will adjust and maintain the same capacity?

鑑於 28 納米利用率不足，您是否會考慮將 28 節點容量轉換為高級節點，還是會調整併保持相同的容量？

Converting the capacity is last resort, okay.

轉換容量是最後的手段，好吧。

We want to fill the capacity based on technology.

我們希望通過技術來填補產能。

This is a constant effort.

這是一個持續不斷的努力。

And 22-nanometer is one example.

22 納米就是一個例子。

There are other specialty technologies on the pipeline to offer, and that is our first result, hopefully, to get to fill it up as much as we can.

管道中還有其他專業技術可供提供，這是我們的第一個成果，希望能夠盡可能地填補它。

If by then that we'll have other capacity adjustment option.

如果到那時我們將有其他容量調整選項。

But at this time, it's not on our plan.

但目前，這不在我們的計劃之內。

So do you expect revenue?

那麼你預計收入嗎？

I would expect in 2019 probably drop a little bit because we are ramping up.

我預計 2019 年可能會略有下降，因為我們正在加速。

And after that, we'll start to increase.

之後，我們將開始增加。

You mean, 2020?

你是說2020年？

Yes.

是的。

Second question, regarding 7-nanometer progress.

第二個問題，關於7納米的進展。

You mentioned you will do server CPU, if I heard you right.

如果我沒聽錯的話，你提到你將做服務器 CPU。

So would that be ARM-based or x86 or you cannot give color for that?

那麼它是基於 ARM 的還是 x86 的，或者您無法給出顏色？

It's too specific.

太具體了。

So it's a CPU.

所以它是一個CPU。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗集團的 Roland Shu 提出。

You talked about 7-nanometer will be more than 10% of the total revenue in 3Q versus less than 1% in second quarter.

您談到7納米將在第三季度佔總收入的10％以上，而第二季度則不到1％。

So the increase for the 7-nanometer is more like 10%, but the 3Q overall revenue guidance growth is less than 10%.

因此7納米的增幅更像是10%，但3Q整體營收指引增幅低於10%。

It means the other revenue from 10-nanometer and above are declining.

這意味著10納米及以上的其他收入正在下降。

So can you give us more color for this technology node, which node is strong, which node is weak in 3Q?

那麼您能否給我們更多關於這個技術節點的顏色，在3Q中哪個節點強，哪個節點弱？

Which node is strong?

哪個節點強？

Which node is weak?

哪個節點較弱？

Yes.

是的。

Because the overall 10-nanometer, 16, 20, 20 and above the overall revenue in 3Q will decline sequentially.

因為整體10納米、16、20、20及以上3Q整體營收會環比下滑。

So I would like to know for which node specifically is strong and which node is weak in 3Q?

所以我想知道3Q具體哪個節點強，哪個節點弱？

I cannot comment on that, right.

我無法對此發表評論，對吧。

But we know 10-nanometer actually will still decline.

但我們知道10納米實際上仍然會下降。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

Right.

正確的。

So it means 16 would be still...

所以這意味著16仍然是......

You want to ask one by one, huh?

你想一一問吧？

Starting from 0.15-micron, something like that.

從 0.15 微米開始，類似的東西。

That's good enough.

這就足夠了。

Actually, you know that our 7-nanometer is very strong.

其實你知道我們7納米是很強的。

7 and 10 very strong.

7和10很強。

16-nanometer is fully loaded.

16納米滿載而歸。

So that's good enough information for you to estimate.

因此，這些信息足以供您進行估計。

Okay.

好的。

And follow-up question for this 7-nanometer ramp-up because now we think 7-nanometer will be a major node like 16- and the 28-nanometer.

關於 7 納米加速的後續問題，因為現在我們認為 7 納米將成為像 16 納米和 28 納米一樣的主要節點。

So question is for next year, for 7-nanometer revenue ramp-up, will it be similar as 16-nanometer in 2016 or 28-nanometer in 2013, which is the second year for you ramp up this...

所以問題是，明年 7 納米收入的增長是否會與 2016 年的 16 納米或 2013 年的 28 納米類似，這是你增加收入的第二年……

Stronger than any node we have in history.

比我們歷史上的任何節點都強大。

Okay, so that means I know for next year for maybe on a single quarter for 7-nanometer, reach 30% of the total revenue will be a reachable target.

好吧，這意味著我知道明年 7 納米的單個季度收入佔總收入的 30% 將是一個可以實現的目標。

I don't want to go to a quarter, okay, Roland.

我不想去四分之一，好吧，羅蘭。

I would say we just said, 7-nanometer will account for 10% third quarter, more than 20% in fourth quarter.

我想說我們剛才說了，7納米第三季度會占到10%，第四季度會超過20%。

For next year, 7-nanometer will account for more than 20% for the whole year.

明年，7納米全年佔比將超過20%。

That's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is for June monthly sales unusually declined by double digit percentage point year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

第二個問題是，6月份月度銷售額同比和環比異常下降了兩位數百分點。

Was that because customer did not take the wafer shipment in their quarter-end?

是因為客戶季末沒有提貨嗎？

Or was that purely because of the demand weakness?

或者這純粹是因為需求疲軟？

Don't look at monthly revenue, because look at the quarterly revenue, which we have just provided guidance.

不要看月度收入，因為要看季度收入，我們剛剛提供了指導。

Okay.

好的。

I still have to ask, how about the 3Q monthly sales linearity in 3Q?

我還想問，3Q月度銷售線性怎麼樣？

The monthly linearity is not really in our control.

每月的線性度並不真正在我們的控制範圍內。

The customers shipping ahead of their schedules, sometimes within a couple days range they want to adjust their inventory, and there are many factors.

客戶提前發貨，有時在幾天之內他們想調整庫存，因素有很多。

So it's not to our target that we target each month have a financial goal, rather it would be a quarterly goal.

因此，我們每個月的目標並不是財務目標，而是季度目標。

Next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將由 CL 證券的 Sebastian Hou 提出。

My first question is on N5.

我的第一個問題是關於N5的。

Regarding the tape-out, early mentioned that you expect to receive the first tape-out in first quarter or early next year.

關於流片，之前提到您預計將在第一季度或明年初收到第一個流片。

So how much -- how many tape-out do you expect to receive by the end of next year before the mass production begin in first half 2020?

那麼，在 2020 年上半年開始量產之前，您預計明年年底會收到多少流片？

Actually, we don't know at this time.

事實上，我們現在還不知道。

5-nanometer as a node, of course, is in the development.

5納米作為一個節點，當然是在開發中。

Right now we know that we have customer test chips put it in our test vehicles, several of them.

現在我們知道我們有客戶測試芯片將其放入我們的測試車輛中，其中有幾輛。

And those are the functional blocks of their products.

這些就是他們產品的功能塊。

So at this time, most of them haven't committed a tape-out date.

所以目前，他們中的大多數人還沒有承諾流片日期。

So we really cannot summarize the number particular time, but the engagement activity is very active.

所以我們確實無法總結具體時間的數字，但是參與活動非常活躍。

So how do you compare the engagement activity or customer interest to N7 at the same...?

那麼，如何同時比較 N7 的參與活動或客戶興趣......？

At this time, probably less than N7 at the beginning because this is a big investment for our customers.

這個時候，可能比一開始的N7還少，因為這對我們的客戶來說是一筆很大的投資。

And they would -- I think they are planning later time when N7 gets to ramp up in full.

他們會——我認為他們正在計劃稍後 N7 全面啟動時。

Then how do you see the ROI in N5 and 7. If less interest right now, and how do you -- and the investment probably larger for you, and how in terms of payback, ROI?

那麼您如何看待 N5 和 7 的投資回報率。如果現在興趣較少，您如何看待 - 投資可能對您來說更大，以及就投資回報率和投資回報率而言如何？

How do you compare N5 and 7 at this moment?

現在你如何比較N5和7？

It will be very similar.

這將非常相似。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is on the advanced packaging that noticed -- I think TSMC has continued to roll out new or launch new packaging offerings almost every year.

我的第二個問題是關於注意到的先進封裝——我認為台積電幾乎每年都繼續推出新的或推出新的封裝產品。

So can you give us more -- some update on that?

那麼您能給我們提供更多信息嗎？

And what kind of -- how many product offerings you have on this?

您在這方面提供了多少種產品？

And do you see this becoming -- TSMC become even more serious in packaging rather than just in the past to facilitate the big customers?

您是否認為台積電在封裝方面變得更加認真，而不是過去只是為了方便大客戶？

We have been very serious all the time.

我們一直都很認真。

And in fact to add some color to it, in the future, we see the high-performance computing is very important.

事實上，給它添加一些色彩，在未來，我們看到高性能計算非常重要。

And the TSMC's advanced packaging here for the customer to improve the system performance and so there are more and more activities to engage with the customer for their high-end computing devices.

而台積電在這裡的先進封裝可以為客戶提高系統性能，因此有越來越多的活動來與客戶接觸他們的高端計算設備。

Okay.

好的。

So can we assume that a big portion of the new tape-out you are receiving on 16-, 12-, 7- and potentially 5-nanometers will adopt your packaging solution whatever it's InFO, its variance, or CoWoS?

那麼我們是否可以假設您收到的 16、12、7 和可能的 5 納米新流片中的很大一部分將採用您的封裝解決方案，無論它是 InFO、其變體還是 CoWoS？

Sebastian, the advanced packaging is a major thrust of our technology development.

Sebastian，先進封裝是我們技術發展的主要推動力。

The reason is the Moore's Law over the years is indeed slowing down.

原因是這些年來摩爾定律確實在放緩。

That means we have to create more value to our customer on their product to allow the technology migration continue.

這意味著我們必須為客戶的產品創造更多價值，以便技術遷移能夠繼續進行。

And advanced packaging is -- you can almost say -- it's a parallel thrust together with Moore's Law to develop our customer's product.

您幾乎可以說，先進封裝是與摩爾定律共同推動客戶產品開發的動力。

And advanced packaging development encompass the -- our customer's architecture development and algorithm development.

先進的封裝開發包括我們客戶的架構開發和算法開發。

In that, I'm talking about we're going to the 3D-IC and that is the purpose to add to this Moore's Law development to maximize our customer's product.

在此，我談論的是我們將轉向 3D-IC，這就是加入摩爾定律開發的目的，以最大限度地提高我們客戶的產品。

Okay, so this is not a typical packaging business.

好吧，這不是典型的包裝業務。

It is a major technology development for TSMC.

這是台積電的一項重大技術開發。

Although today it is indeed more expensive, some of the market sector cannot afford it.

雖然今天它確實更貴了，但一些市場部門卻買不起。

So today we see the affordable segment will be the high-performance computing, particularly the server and also the high-speed networking area.

因此，今天我們看到負擔得起的部分將是高性能計算，特別是服務器以及高速網絡領域。

Of course, the current biggest customer is in the mobile and I believe the mobile sector will gradually come in when they see the value.

當然，目前最大的客戶是移動領域，我相信當移動領域看到價值後，他們會逐漸介入。

So it is not a typical Moore's Law pace, rather it is additional development effort to augment it to the Moore's Law.

因此，這不是典型的摩爾定律步伐，而是將其增強到摩爾定律的額外開發工作。

That is my response in the total picture.

這就是我對總體情況的回應。

So this part of things are now -- before the InFO launch and now you have more offerings, so presumably, you can generate more packaging revenue going forward and that is incremental compared to the past.

所以這部分的事情現在是——在 InFO 發布之前，現在你有更多的產品，所以想必，你可以在未來產生更多的包裝收入，這與過去相比是增量的。

So can we assume that your packaging revenue -- I know you report it in non-wafer revenue, part of this, and mask, and that is about over 10% last year.

那麼我們可以假設你們的封裝收入——我知道你們將其報告為非晶圓收入，其中一部分，還有掩模，去年大約超過 10%。

And can we assume that those part of the business can reach by -- grow faster than your wafer revenue going forward?

我們是否可以假設這部分業務的增長速度可以快於您未來的晶圓收入？

Of course.

當然。

Of course, we want to -- we expect that.

當然，我們希望——我們期望如此。

Again, it is -- in this semiconductor, packaging in the past hasn't been playing the role of increased system performance.

同樣，在這種半導體中，過去的封裝並沒有起到提高系統性能的作用。

And this is a new and we indeed first see in our biggest customers' verification products.

這是一個新的產品，我們確實是在我們最大的客戶的驗證產品中首次看到的。

But there our new customers are interested in that, including some of them are mobile, some of them are high-performance computing, but cost is always a factor in determining when do they move into this technology.

但我們的新客戶對此很感興趣，其中一些是移動的，一些是高性能計算的，但成本始終是決定他們何時轉向這項技術的一個因素。

Then that varies segment by segment.

然後，這會隨著細分市場的不同而變化。

Next question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的戈庫爾提出。

My first question is on N7+ and N5.

我的第一個問題是關於N7+和N5的。

So given N5 is a pretty high layer count for EUV.

因此，N5 對於 EUV 來說是相當高的層數。

In your early engagement with customers, are you seeing customers trying N7+ at least for some small-volume products and then going to N5?

在您與客戶的早期接觸中，您是否看到客戶至少在一些小批量產品上嘗試過 N7+，然後轉向 N5？

Or are you seeing more customers directly going to N5?

或者您是否看到更多客戶直接前往 N5？

And could you also give a view on how big N7+ is likely to be?

您能否透露一下 N7+ 可能有多大？

Is it going to be a small volume node, but N7+ is still going to be majority of the 7-nanometer family?

它會是一個小體積節點，但 N7+ 仍將是 7 納米系列的大部分嗎？

It's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Gokul, no correlation when the customer need to go to N7+ and then go to N5.

Gokul，當客戶需要轉到 N7+ 然後轉到 N5 時沒有關聯。

Customer choose working with TSMC for their product development.

客戶選擇與台積電合作進行產品開發。

So they choose the best technology, but at the time that fits their product with.

因此他們選擇最好的技術，但同時又適合他們的產品。

So no correlation.

所以沒有相關性。

But you are talking about whether they need to go through this, no.

但你說的是他們是否需要經歷這個，不需要。

So you feel like that customers are already comfortable with the EUV throughput at that level of layer count to directly correlate?

那麼您認為客戶已經對直接關聯的層數級別的 EUV 吞吐量感到滿意了嗎？

They are, because we communicate with them our progress and our status.

他們是，因為我們與他們交流我們的進展和狀態。

And actually today we have a very good progress and still feel comfortable with.

事實上今天我們已經取得了很好的進展並且仍然感到滿意。

Okay.

好的。

Just one clarification on the smartphone commentary in terms of slightly better demand that you're seeing in smartphones compared to the last 3 months.

只是對智能手機評論的一個澄清，即與過去 3 個月相比，智能手機的需求略有改善。

Could you classify it?

你能分類一下嗎？

Is it more coming in the mid- to low end?

中低端市場會更多嗎？

Or is it really at the high end?

或者說它真的是高端的嗎？

And second question is, is it because TSMC is gaining more share compared to what you expected to -- or your gains are coming faster?

第二個問題是，是因為台積電獲得的份額比您預期的要多，還是您的收益來得更快？

Or is it view on the overall smartphone market itself?

或者是對整個智能手機市場本身的看法？

Most of these high-end smartphone, all right.

這些大部分都是高端智能手機，好吧。

And mid-, low end, the industry-wise is weak, although it's gradually coming back, but its pace of coming back is slower than expected.

而中低端，行業疲軟，雖然正在逐步回升，但回升速度比預期慢。

Next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

下一個問題將由高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的唐納德·盧 (Donald Lu) 提出。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

First question is about China, here I have 2 specific questions.

第一個問題是關於中國的，我有兩個具體問題。

One is that earlier this year when the ZTE saga starts to play out, MediaTek initially said it cannot ship to ZTE, but my understanding is TSMC has never turned down ZTE's wafer order.

一是今年早些時候，當中興事件開始上演時，聯發科最初表示無法向中興發貨，但我的理解是台積電從未拒絕過中興的晶圓訂單。

So I'm wondering what's going on here?

所以我想知道這是怎麼回事？

Is there a law or rule or something going forward going to dictate how we can serve Chinese customer because Chinese customer now account almost 1/4 of your revenues?

是否有法律、規則或未來的事情來規定我們如何為中國客戶提供服務，因為中國客戶現在幾乎佔您收入的 1/4？

Second on China is UMC is going to lift its China -- entity in China and arguably can get a lot of capital for R&D and the growth.

第二個關於中國的問題是聯華電子將提升其在中國的實體地位，並且可以說可以獲得大量資金用於研發和增長。

Will TSMC one day consider that and I'm sure it will be very well welcomed?

台積電有一天會考慮這一點嗎？我相信它會受到熱烈歡迎？

Yes, I have another question, but I will wait.

是的，我還有一個問題，但我會等待。

First, on ZTE.

首先是中興通訊。

Yes, when U.S. government put a ban on the shipment to ZTE, indeed most company, ZTE's supplier, stopped their shipment.

是的，當美國政府禁止向中興通訊發貨時，事實上大多數公司，即中興通訊的供應商，都停止了發貨。

However, TSMC is not a direct supplier to ZTE.

不過，台積電並不是中興通訊的直接供應商。

It's not a direct supplier to ZTE.

它不是中興通訊的直接供應商。

So indeed, some of the -- they do have a subsidiary of ZTE and -- but according to the rule you need to have a certain percentage of value-added from the U.S. And so for that particular subsidiary, the value-added is mostly from China and from TSMC.

事實上，其中一些——他們確實有中興通訊的子公司——但根據規則，你需要有一定比例的來自美國的增值，所以對於那個特定的子公司來說，增值主要是來自中國和台積電。

So that also is beyond the restriction scope.

所以這也超出了限制範圍。

Sorry, can you explain a little more here?

抱歉，您能在這裡再解釋一下嗎？

I understand ZTE also makes chips and that's manufactured at the TSMC, so that's not correct?

我了解中興通訊也生產芯片，並且是在台積電生產的，所以這是不正確的？

No, no.

不，不。

ZTE do not make chips and send order to TSMC.

中興通訊不生產芯片，而是向台積電發訂單。

They do have a subsidiary, a small design house and very small volume, have some business with us.

他們確實有一家子公司，一家小型設計公司，體積很小，與我們有一些業務。

However, we talked to Taiwan government and outside counsel, the value-added doesn't occur at U.S. So it was not in the restriction scope.

但我們與台灣政府及外部律師交談，美國並沒有發生增值，所以不在限制範圍內。

And hypothetically, if HiSilicon have a problem similar to the ZTE, would that be a...

假設，如果海思有類似中興通訊的問題，那會是……

I don't want to answer the hypothetical question, okay.

我不想回答這個假設性問題，好吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You have another question?

您還有其他問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's on the potential Asia listing of your great fab...

它在您偉大晶圓廠的潛在亞洲清單上......

Okay, this goes to Lora.

好的，這個交給洛拉。

Lora, tell me we are not short of capital, okay.

洛拉，告訴我我們不缺資金，好嗎？

Yes, company go for IPO, main purpose to source the funding and we have enough funding to support our growth.

是的，公司進行首次公開募股，主要目的是籌集資金，我們有足夠的資金來支持我們的發展。

There is no plan for us to do that, okay.

我們沒有計劃這樣做，好吧。

I have second question is on 7-nanometer, the first is about China.

我的第二個問題是關於7納米的，第一個問題是關於中國的。

7-nanometer, I have a question.

7納米，我有一個問題。

What was TSMC's market share at 16-nanometer and at 7-nanometer foundry market?

台積電在16納米和7納米代工市場的市場份額是多少？

And also how, compare the TAM, how much is 7-nanometer TAM versus 16-nanometer TAM in terms of market size?

另外，比較 TAM，7 納米 TAM 與 16 納米 TAM 的市場規模是多少？

Our 7-nanometer market share and 16-FinFET, okay.

我們的 7 納米市場份額和 16-FinFET 還不錯。

16-FinFET market share is very high and 7-nanometer is even higher.

16-FinFET市場份額非常高，7納米更高。

How much high, 10% more?

多高多少，10%？

I cannot be so specific, right.

我不能說得那麼具體，對吧。

High is high.

高就是高。

Is the TAM of 7-nanometer...

7納米的TAM是嗎？

The TAM of 7-nanometer is bigger.

7納米的TAM更大。

Bigger than 16?

大於16？

Yes.

是的。

Why is that because historically that seems to be decreasing.

為什麼會這樣，因為從歷史上看，這種情況似乎正在減少。

Why 7-nanometer?

為什麼是7納米？

Well, just some reason.

好吧，只是一些原因。

We are talking about AI, we are talking about 5G, high-performance computing all add together so..

我們正在談論人工智能，我們正在談論 5G，高性能計算，所有這些加在一起，所以......

Talk about dollar, dollar of TAM, right?

談論美元，TAM 的美元，對吧？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's actually go to the line for the first caller on the line.

讓我們實際轉到線路上第一個呼叫者的線路。

Operator, please.

接線員，請說。

We have a question from [HSBC, Steven Pelayo.]

我們有一個來自[匯豐銀行，史蒂文·佩拉約]的問題。

In the fourth quarter conference call, you disclosed last year's 7% of revenues came from back-end services, now you're talking about also improved profitability in that area.

在第四季度的電話會議上，你們透露去年7%的收入來自後端服務，現在你們談論的是該領域盈利能力的提高。

Can you help us understand your outlook for total back-end services contribution this year?

您能否幫助我們了解您今年對後端服務總體貢獻的展望？

And how significant the profitability improvement is?

盈利能力的改善有多大？

Back-end contribution this year and profitability.

今年後端貢獻和盈利能力。

The back-end contribution to total revenue is increasing.

後端對總收入的貢獻不斷增加。

It's slightly higher than last year with the more advanced packaging coming on the line.

由於更先進的封裝即將上線，這一數字略高於去年。

So I think backend and EBO add up is slightly more than 10% of our revenue versus about 10% last year.

因此，我認為後端和 EBO 加起來略高於我們收入的 10%，而去年約為 10%。

Okay.

好的。

And one more question for you, Lora.

還有一個問題要問你，洛拉。

I remember last year, you also had 10-nanometer going greater than 20% of revenues in the fourth quarter.

我記得去年第四季度 10 納米技術也佔收入的 20% 以上。

This year, you have 7-nanometer going greater than 20% of revenues in the fourth quarter.

今年，7 納米技術佔第四季度收入的 20% 以上。

The guidance that you just gave for the third quarter suggested 100 basis points of headwind from the initial ramp of 7-nanometer.

您剛剛給出的第三季度指導意見表明，與 7 納米的初始增長相比，存在 100 個基點的阻力。

I'm curious as 7-nanometer goes to more than 20% of revenues in the fourth quarter, does the volume start to offset and you won't get as much of a headwind?

我很好奇，第四季度 7 納米技術佔收入的 20% 以上，銷量是否會開始抵消，並且不會遇到那麼大的阻力？

Or the fact that it's such a large percentage of mix, will 7-nanometer still be a significant headwind to potential margin progression going into the fourth quarter?

或者事實上，它所佔的比例如此之大，7 納米仍然會成為第四季度潛在利潤增長的重大阻力嗎？

So Steven's question is, if we ramp 7-nanometer to more than 20% revenue in the fourth quarter, what will be the margin headwind brought by this ramp?

所以史蒂文的問題是，如果我們在第四季度將 7 納米的收入提升到 20% 以上，那麼這種提升帶來的利潤率阻力會是多少？

In the first year of production -- but actually usually the margin for 7-nanometer is lower than corporate average.

在生產的第一年——但實際上 7 納米的利潤通常低於公司平均水平。

So we do see, with the third quarter guidance I just gave you, which include 10% contribution from 7-nanometer, this is going to dilute corporate margin by 1 percentage point -- slightly more than 1 percentage point.

所以我們確實看到，根據我剛剛給大家的第三季度指導，其中包括 7 納米技術的 10% 貢獻，這將導致企業利潤率下降 1 個百分點——略高於 1 個百分點。

And going forward to the fourth quarter where 7-nanometer will account for more than 20% of total wafer revenue, we expect the dilution will be about 2.5 percentage points to corporate gross margin.

展望第四季度，7納米將佔晶圓總收入的20%以上，我們預計企業毛利率將稀釋約2.5個百分點。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And if I could just sneak one last one in, I'm surprised we haven't talked much about feedback from your customers on potential trade war impacts.

如果我可以偷偷地講最後一個，我很驚訝我們沒有太多談論你們客戶對潛在貿易戰影響的反饋。

Does TSMC have a viewpoint?

台積電有觀點嗎？

And what are you hearing from your customers on potential impacts for the rest of this year?

您從客戶那裡了解到了今年剩餘時間的潛在影響是什麼？

On the U.S.-China trade tension and the issue, the tariffs on the 3 waves, first wave is on the $34 billion products, second wave on $16 billion and third wave is on the $200 billion, and only the first wave has been executed today.

關於中美貿易緊張局勢及問題，分三波加徵關稅，第一波針對340億美元產品，第二波針對160億美元，第三波針對2000億美元，今天只執行了第一波。

And in that, we see very minimal impact for our business and our customer.

在這方面，我們認為對我們的業務和客戶的影響非常小。

Those are the -- mostly, we relate it to the IC -- related to the semiconductor is only discrete devices in the first wave.

這些——大多數情況下，我們將其與 IC 相關——與半導體相關，只是第一波浪潮中的分立器件。

On the second wave, although it's still in the comment stage, but we do a thorough check on that effects.

第二波，雖然還處於評論階段，但是我們對其效果做了徹底的檢查。

It does include integrated circuits.

它確實包括集成電路。

However, we look at it and still have a very minimal impact, effect, in our business so far.

然而，我們看看它，到目前為止，對我們業務的影響仍然很小。

So even though the SIA in the U.S. is still protesting about including the IC into the second phase, but what I've been talking about even though they put it into effect, it's still very minimal effect.

所以儘管美國的SIA還在抗議將IC納入第二階段，但我一直在談論的即使他們實施了，效果仍然很小。

Next question we'll be coming back to the floor.

下一個問題我們將回到會場。

Sorry, let's come back to the floor first.

抱歉，我們先回到現場。

It will be from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

它將由摩根士丹利的查理·陳 (Charlie Chan) 發出。

So my question is actually a follow-up to previous questions.

所以我的問題實際上是之前問題的後續。

First of all is the smartphone semi better in third quarter.

首先，智能手機半成品在第三季度表現更好。

Is that -- do you see a upward revision of smartphone semiconductor or -- you mean is that better than second quarter?

您是否看到智能手機半導體的向上修正，或者您的意思是這比第二季度更好？

Can you comment on that?

你能對此發表評論嗎？

Of course, it's better than second quarter because 3 months ago, we are a little bit more conservative.

當然，這比第二季度要好，因為三個月前，我們有點保守。

But recently, the development in the smartphone unit actually recovered.

但最近，智能手機部門的發展實際上有所復甦。

So it's better than what we forecasted 3 months ago, but it's not a big deviation from our forecast at the beginning of this year.

所以它比我們3個月前的預測要好，但與我們今年年初的預測相差並不大。

Okay.

好的。

And I guess, another question that we also care about is your revenue exposure to the crypto semiconductor.

我想，我們也關心的另一個問題是您對加密半導體的收入敞口。

So after 2 quarters, what is the exposure in the first half?

那麼2個季度之後，上半年的曝光情況是多少呢？

And what do you think percentage of crypto semi will be in the second half?

您認為下半年加密貨幣的比例是多少？

We already mentioned that because of our cryptocurrency's pricing, so we forecast softer demand from the cryptocurrency mining in the second half.

我們已經提到，由於我們的加密貨幣的定價，因此我們預測下半年加密貨幣挖礦的需求將會疲軟。

So as what's the ratio between the first half and the second half, I cannot be specific, but one of the reasons is very uncertain, right.

那麼上半場和下半場的比例是多少，我不能具體說，但是其中一個原因是很不確定的，對吧。

It's volatile, but our own forecast we lowered it down.

它是不穩定的，但我們自己的預測我們降低了它。

I think the true picture is we -- currently, we had our best effort to forecast a weaker cryptocurrency.

我認為真實的情況是——目前，我們盡了最大努力來預測加密貨幣的疲軟。

However, it's largely compensated by the increased strength of the smartphone.

然而，智能手機性能的增強在很大程度上彌補了這一點。

So that's why the total number we have forecast is not that different.

這就是為什麼我們預測的總數沒有那麼不同。

However, cryptocurrency still has some uncertainty, right, that's why we adjusted the 10% number.

不過加密貨幣還是有一定的不確定性，對吧，這就是我們調整10%這個數字的原因。

But still, we are going to fight for that to reach close to that, yes.

但我們仍然會為接近這個目標而奮鬥，是的。

Okay.

好的。

So my next question is regarding your AI semiconductor.

我的下一個問題是關於你們的人工智能半導體。

It has been a very strongly growing sector over the past 2 years, right, and it's going to be another key growth driver for coming years.

在過去的兩年裡，它是一個增長非常強勁的行業，對吧，它將成為未來幾年的另一個關鍵增長動力。

So can you give us some numbers?

那麼你能給我們一些數字嗎？

For example, the AI semiconductor contribution this year, last year and the growth trajectory in the coming year, especially next year, are you going to see AI semiconductor double?

比如今年、去年的AI半導體貢獻以及未來一年，特別是明年的增長軌跡，你會看到AI半導體翻倍嗎？

And I want to define this AI semiconductor a little bit.

我想稍微定義一下這個人工智能半導體。

So that should exclude the AI features including in the smartphone chipset.

因此，這應該排除智能手機芯片組中包含的人工智能功能。

I'm referring to those discrete chips mainly is for cloud, AI or the edge AI.

我指的是那些分立芯片主要用於雲、人工智能或邊緣人工智能。

Wow, that's a good question, but very hard to answer because most of the AI's functionalities today is embedded into the existing product.

哇，這是一個很好的問題，但很難回答，因為當今的大多數人工智能功能都嵌入到現有產品中。

For example, you look at the smartphone in these days, the application processor embedded a lot of AI functionality inside.

例如，你看看現在的智能手機，應用處理器裡面嵌入了很多人工智能功能。

So you can have a lot of new features, right, the face recognition, the voice recognition and then -- et cetera, et cetera.

所以你可以擁有很多新功能，對吧，面部識別、語音識別等等——等等。

So if you want to specifically identify what is increase over last year, what is increase of this year is pretty hard for us to do.

所以如果你要具體明確去年比去年增長了多少，那麼今年增長了多少我們就很難做到了。

But we can see the activity going up because you look at networking processor keep coming, application processor for all the smartphones keep increasing functionality so you can estimate what kind of die size they increase, so the silicon content.

但我們可以看到活動不斷增加，因為你會看到網絡處理器不斷出現，所有智能手機的應用處理器不斷增加功能，因此你可以估計它們增加的芯片尺寸，以及矽含量。

By doing that, you probably can figure out what is that contribution and why TSMC making it so big deal because we saw the trend from AI and 5G all combined together, that would be a megatrend.

通過這樣做，你可能可以弄清楚這個貢獻是什麼以及為什麼台積電如此重視，因為我們看到了人工智能和 5G 結合在一起的趨勢，這將是一個大趨勢。

Let me add some for further future communication purposes.

讓我補充一些以便將來進一步溝通。

AI is in every growth segment we have, okay.

人工智能存在於我們擁有的每一個增長領域，好吧。

In the smartphone, in the automotive, in IoT, AI increased the silicon content.

在智能手機、汽車、物聯網中，人工智能增加了矽含量。

For the high-performance computing, indeed there are a lot of discrete AI chips.

對於高性能計算來說，確實有很多獨立的AI芯片。

So with those discrete AI chips that include the xPU, accelerator GPUs and network processors and some of them even Games in that -- those are discrete CPU.

因此，對於那些包括 xPU、加速器 GPU 和網絡處理器，其中一些甚至是遊戲的獨立 AI 芯片，這些都是獨立的 CPU。

So as we speak today, indeed high-performance computing growth is pretty fast.

正如我們今天所說，高性能計算的增長確實非常快。

Last year was [20%], this year is [40%],(corrected by company after the call) around that, because the reason it's slowing down because cryptocurrency is included in the high-performance computing.

去年是[20%]，今年是[40%]，（在電話會議後由公司更正）大約是這樣，因為它放緩的原因是加密貨幣包含在高性能計算中。

So going up is still the highest growth sectors today we have, yes, but future is very difficult to predict.

因此，上漲仍然是我們今天增長最快的行業，是的，但未來很難預測。

Like this year, we're just trying to help our customer to expand their market as quickly as possible.

就像今年一樣，我們只是想幫助我們的客戶盡快擴大他們的市場。

I think we still need to go back to the line for the next caller.

我想我們仍然需要回去接聽下一個來電者。

Operator, please.

接線員，請說。

Next question is from Agency Partners, Douglas Smith.

下一個問題來自代理合作夥伴 Douglas Smith。

Couple of quarters ago, Morris Chang said that there were no plans to expand manufacturing capacity in the U.S. because of current events.

幾個季度前，張忠謀表示，由於當前發生的事件，沒有計劃擴大在美國的產能。

Has that been rethought?

這已經被重新考慮了嗎？

And the second question is what step is TSMC taking to protect its intellectual property given there have been a lot of allegations of IP theft recently.

第二個問題是，鑑於最近有很多知識產權盜竊的指控，台積電將採取什麼措施來保護其知識產權。

First question is to -- we have mentioned that we have no plan to expand manufacturing capacity in The United States.

第一個問題是——我們已經提到，我們沒有計劃擴大在美國的製造能力。

Have we changed our mind?

我們改變主意了嗎？

No, we did not.

我們沒有。

It's working.

它正在發揮作用。

No, we did not change our plan.

不，我們沒有改變計劃。

Only when it's necessary we'll do it, so far we did not see the need to put -- to establish a new fab in the U.S.

只有在必要的時候我們才會這樣做，到目前為止我們還沒有看到有必要在美國建立一個新的晶圓廠。

The second question is how do we protect our intellectual property against theft?

第二個問題是我們如何保護我們的知識產權不被盜竊？

Yes, this is the -- actually, this is the core of China-U.

是的，這實際上是中美關係的核心。

S. trade tension and we take it very seriously, too.

美國貿易緊張局勢，我們也非常重視。

And theft can come -- we call it espionage, can come from everywhere, not just from one country or there are sometimes the indirect that come to the -- getting our proprietary information.

盜竊可能會發生——我們稱之為間諜活動，可能來自任何地方，而不僅僅是來自一個國家，或者有時會間接地獲取我們的專有信息。

I can only say that we are fiercely protecting our IP and information because those are -- IP information is originally developed TSMC over the past -- more than 30 years and that is ours.

我只能說，我們正在大力保護我們的知識產權和信息，因為這些——知識產權信息最初是台積電過去開發的——超過30年，那是我們的。

No other states can take it or putting the effort to espionage.

沒有其他國家可以接受它或將其精力用於間諜活動。

That is the main focus among all this tension.

這是所有這些緊張局勢中的主要焦點。

Now we come back to the floor.

現在我們回到會議現場。

The next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的 Bill Lu 提出。

So there's been quite a few questions today on advanced packaging and how that's sort of helping with Moore's law slowing down.

因此，今天有很多關於先進封裝的問題，以及這如何幫助摩爾定律放緩。

If you look at these HPC applications, the move to the parallel compute, the requirement to access high-bandwidth memory, that, I think, is a big part of the packaging trend.

如果你看看這些 HPC 應用程序、向並行計算的轉變、訪問高帶寬內存的要求，我認為這是封裝趨勢的重要組成部分。

I just feel like packaging is going up in value, but so is memory, right.

我只是覺得包裝的價值在上漲，但內存也在上漲，對吧。

Is there a case to be made for TSMC doing more there either in terms of partnerships or in terms of own efforts?

台積電是否有理由在合作夥伴關係或自身努力方面採取更多行動？

Or just comment on that space.

或者只是評論該空間。

You are right.

你是對的。

We don't produce memory, neither DRAM or flash, but we work very closely with 3 memory houses, including Samsung and Hynix and Micron.

我們不生產內存，既不生產 DRAM，也不生產閃存，但我們與 3 個內存公司密切合作，包括三星、海力士和美光。

And all the engineers work together very closely and at this point, the engineering work is further intensified.

所有的工程師都非常緊密地合作，至此，工程工作進一步加劇。

And so -- this is our strategy is that we still want the memory supply can come from multiple sources for our customer so that they can have most freely develop their product.

因此，我們的策略是，我們仍然希望客戶的內存供應可以來自多個來源，以便他們可以最自由地開發他們的產品。

And yes, there is -- among the 3, some of the memory company work closer with us, but all 3 are working quite closely with us to help our customer's product to get to that market, yes.

是的，在這 3 家公司中，一些內存公司與我們合作更密切，但所有這 3 家公司都與我們密切合作，以幫助我們客戶的產品進入該市場，是的。

Second question is on your ASP.

第二個問題是關於你的ASP。

If you look at last several years, CapEx going up and now the CapEx intensity is coming down a little bit and yet you've got -- you're going to have big market share of 7-nanometers in the big market that is upcoming.

如果你看看過去幾年，資本支出不斷上升，現在資本支出強度略有下降，但你將在即將到來的大市場中擁有 7 納米的巨大市場份額。

What is the thinking here?

這裡的想法是什麼？

Should we think that with lower cost that you can pass it on to the customers given that you are going to get to your ROE goals?

鑑於您要實現 ROE 目標，我們是否應該認為您可以以較低的成本將其轉嫁給客戶？

Or how do we think about that?

或者我們如何看待這個問題？

Bill, I thought you were asking about ASP and then you are also asking about how we deliver value to our customers?

Bill，我以為您在問 ASP，那麼您也在問我們如何為客戶提供價值？

Sorry, I guess, my question is if you think about ASP with your -- last several nodes, ASP has been going up, right, but now that your cost structure is coming down, does that mean we should expect flatter ASP going forward?

抱歉，我想，我的問題是，如果您考慮 ASP，最後幾個節點，ASP 一直在上升，對吧，但現在您的成本結構正在下降，這是否意味著我們應該期待 ASP 未來更加平坦？

Okay.

好的。

Do we share our cost-reduction benefit with our customers more than before, which is reflected in the price, that's what you're asking.

我們是否比以前更多地與客戶分享成本降低的好處，這反映在價格上，這就是您要問的問題。

I just realized last several nodes that the leading edge actually has been shrinking, right.

我剛剛意識到最後幾個節點的前沿實際上一直在縮小，對吧。

And so now you've got a big market, your cost is coming down.

現在你有了一個很大的市場，你的成本正在下降。

If you're not going to raise price, you should benefit more because the size of the market might grow.

如果你不打算提高價格，你應該會受益更多，因為市場規模可能會擴大。

Just how do you think about that problem, I guess?

我想你是如何看待這個問題的？

I still don't understand that you are talking about that is getting more mature so then the cost is down and so that's how we have to lower down our price?

我還是不明白你說的是越來越成熟，所以成本下降了，所以我們就必須降低價格？

I'm sorry.

對不起。

I'm not being very clear.

我說的不是很清楚。

Just comment on ASP next couple of years, I guess?

我想，只是評論一下未來幾年的 ASP 吧？

We sell by the value.

我們按價值出售。

We don't sell by the cost, that's the first rule.

我們不按成本出售，這是第一條規則。

And we work with the customer to make sure that their product can be sellable, feasible in the market.

我們與客戶合作，確保他們的產品可以在市場上銷售、可行。

So that's all the rule of thumb that we consider.

這就是我們考慮的所有經驗法則。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將由瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出。

First question I want to ask on the 4 growth platforms, if you could give an update.

第一個問題我想問關於4個增長平台的問題，您是否可以更新一下。

Mobile, I think, in the past early in the year was flat or that was the expectation, now I think it came down.

我認為，移動業務在年初表現平平，或者說這是預期，現在我認為它有所下降。

So if you could give your view now that mobile platform expectation year-over-year?

那麼您現在是否可以對移動平台的同比預期發表一下看法？

And then for the other three, an updated snapshot like how large HPC, IoT and auto are for TSMC now?

然後對於其他三個，更新快照，例如台積電現在的 HPC、物聯網和汽車規模有多大？

Okay, let me answer that.

好吧，讓我來回答一下。

As I just mentioned, I think that because of introduction of the AI and 5G, so even we start to forecast that the mobile smartphone, the contribution to our growth will continue, but yes, one surprisingly good result from the HPC.

正如我剛才提到的，我認為由於人工智能和 5G 的引入，所以即使我們開始預測移動智能手機對我們增長的貢獻將繼續，但是，是的，HPC 取得了令人驚訝的好結果。

So HPC's contribution now it will be comparable to the mobile phone and then followed by IoT and automotive.

所以現在HPC的貢獻將與手機相媲​​美，然後是物聯網和汽車。

So that now is a 2 big contributor.

所以現在是第二大貢獻者。

We used to say mobile is 50%, now it's a little bit less than 50%.

我們過去常說移動設備佔 50%，現在略低於 50%。

And then HPC will be close into mobile's contribution now in the course per se.

然後 HPC 將在課程本身中接近移動的貢獻。

Okay.

好的。

But I guess, could you -- I think, HPC has been running -- or growing from 20% to 25% or just kind of the range now for HPC and then, I think, the last metric auto was about $1.4 billion.

但我想，你能——我想，HPC 一直在運行——或者從 20% 增長到 25%，或者只是現在 HPC 的範圍，然後，我認為，最後的公制汽車價值約為 14 億美元。

I'm not sure if you've given that IoT, but if you have kind of a rough -- just so we have a rough picture since that's the way we're looking at the business now?

我不確定您是否已經提供了物聯網，但如果您有一個粗略的了解，那麼我們就有一個粗略的了解，因為這就是我們現在看待業務的方式？

Well, you're asking a question through lens of the future.

嗯，你是通過未來的視角來問問題。

Look at it, high-performance computing today is 25%.

你看，今天的高性能計算是25%。

We expect that percentage will increase slightly and mobile percentage will decrease slightly.

我們預計該百分比將略有增加，而移動百分比將略有下降。

And IoT and automotive, those are roughly about 6% or 7% of our business, but that growth rate is pretty fast, talking about 20 more -- more than 20% growth year-after-year.

物聯網和汽車業務大約占我們業務的 6% 或 7%，但增長速度相當快，大約有 20 個業務——年復一年增長超過 20%。

So that is our current picture of the growth and that is also why we see this as 4 growth drivers for TSMC.

這就是我們目前的增長前景，也是為什麼我們將其視為台積電的四個增長動力。

Okay.

好的。

In the 6% to 7%, is that combined?

6%到7%，是合併起來的嗎？

Or each one?

還是每一個？

Each one.

每一個。

Okay.

好的。

The second question I have on gross margin, following up to Steve's question, there's about 1.5% headwind in Q4 from 7-nanometer.

我的第二個問題是關於毛利率的，繼史蒂夫的問題之後，第四季度 7 納米的阻力大約為 1.5%。

But you're also guiding growth, again, in fourth quarter based on the full year guidance.

但您也再次根據全年指導來指導第四季度的增長。

So do you expect you can offset the depreciation -- sorry, the 7-nanometer headwind with growth to keep margins at your similar levels?

那麼，您是否期望能夠通過增長來抵消折舊（抱歉，7 納米的逆風），從而將利潤率保持在類似水平？

Actually, the headwind for 7-nanometer in fourth quarter is 2.5%, not 1.5 percentage point because the volume is pretty big.

實際上，第四季度7納米的逆風是2.5%，而不是1.5個百分點，因為體積相當大。

2.5% over third quarter, okay.

比第三季度增長2.5%，好吧。

Over third, yes, you're right or 1.5% more than third quarter.

超過第三季度，是的，你是對的，比第三季度增長了 1.5%。

Well, there are many factors and 1.5% is not that big.

嗯，因素很多，1.5%也不算大。

There are things can be done to improve the product mix if the utilization gets better and we have better cost efficiency, then you can get there, yes.

如果利用率變得更好並且我們具有更好的成本效率，那麼您可以採取一些措施來改善產品組合，是的。

So I'm not projecting that, but that's all the effort we'll be exercising in the company.

所以我並不是在預測這一點，但這就是我們將在公司做出的所有努力。

Next question will be from CL Securities, Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將由 CL 證券 Sebastian Hou 提出。

My first follow-up is to clarify what Mark just said on the HPC revenue growth, was it [20%] last year, about [40%] (corrected by company after the call) this year?

我的第一個後續行動是澄清 Mark 剛才所說的 HPC 收入增長，去年是 [20%]，今年是 [40%]（公司在電話會議後更正）嗎？

Yes, including the crypto.

是的，包括加密貨幣。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

So if we look at the full year guidance for this year is high single-digit rate and if we take cryptocurrency out of it this year and last year, apple-to-apple comparison without cryptocurrency, what's the growth rate for TSMC -- what's the growth guidance for TSMC for this year?

因此，如果我們看看今年的全年指導是高個位數增長率，如果我們今年和去年剔除加密貨幣，在沒有加密貨幣的情況下進行蘋果與蘋果之間的比較，台積電的增長率是多少？台積電今年的成長指引是什麼？

Still in the range of 5% to 10%?

還在5%到10%的範圍內嗎？

We don't have that number readily, but I think that for this numerical answer, maybe Elizabeth can relate to you after the meeting.

我們現在還沒有這個數字，但我認為對於這個數字答案，伊麗莎白也許可以在會後與你產生共鳴。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And going forward, I think, you maintained a CAGR, compound annual growth rate, of 5% to 10% and that's including crypto or without crypto?

展望未來，我認為你們的複合年增長率保持在 5% 到 10%，這包括加密貨幣還是不加密貨幣？

That's including the crypto.

這包括加密貨幣。

But as we look at today, the crypto will be not in the factor, if you talk about 5-year horizon, but things can change.

但正如我們今天所看到的，如果你談論 5 年的視野，加密貨幣將不再是考慮因素，但情況可能會發生變化。

But at this time, we don't count on the crypto.

但目前，我們不指望加密貨幣。

So which means the non-crypto part of the high-performance computing segment, you're becoming more confident, can we say that?

那麼這意味著高性能計算領域的非加密部分，您變得更加自信，我們可以這麼說嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Second follow-up is on the mature node.

第二次跟進是在成熟節點上。

If I calculate your 0.11-micron process nodes above, assuming that's on 8-inch fab, but I know you, some of you used to tell me that you manufacture those node.

如果我計算上面的 0.11 微米工藝節點，假設是在 8 英寸晶圓廠上，但我了解你們，你們中的一些人曾經告訴我你們製造了這些節點。

But presumably, 0.11-micron above node in the first half this year versus first half last year, the Y-o-Y is down by 8%, 9% U.S. dollar terms.

但據推測，今年上半年的 0.11 微米以上節點與去年上半年相比，同比下降了 8%，以美元計算，下降了 9%。

So there's been a lot of industry saying about that 8-inch foundry is very tight, demand very strong, price high, et cetera, but we don't see that reflected on TSMC in the first half this year.

因此，業界有很多說法稱8英寸代工非常緊張，需求非常強勁，價格高等等，但我們今年上半年沒有看到台積電反映這一點。

So can you tell us what's going on?

那麼你能告訴我們發生了什麼事嗎？

It's actually -- you are talking about our 0.11-micron and above revenue decreasing.

實際上，您正在談論我們 0.11 微米及以上的收入下降。

Actually, we are fully loaded in that 8-inch wafer fab.

事實上，我們那個8英寸晶圓廠已經滿負荷運轉了。

So that's why I mentioned in my statement that we are transferring some 8-inch wafers product into a 12-inch wafer so that we can have more capacity to serve the customer.

所以我在聲明中提到我們正在將一些8英寸晶圓產品轉移到12英寸晶圓上，以便我們能夠有更多的產能來服務客戶。

As for the revenue, I did not have exact number in my hand.

至於收入，我手裡沒有確切的數字。

We are -- but the wafer pricing is dropping.

我們是——但晶圓價格正在下降。

We did not -- I do not have an exact number in my hand.

我們沒有——我手裡沒有確切的數字。

It look like it's 8-inches is 0.15 and below.

看起來8英寸的就是0.15及以下。

You're talking about 0.11 and below.

你說的是0.11及以下。

I think that's the difference.

我認為這就是區別。

So there are some under-utilization in that part from that point, yes.

因此，從那時起，該部分就存在一些利用率不足的情況，是的。

Okay.

好的。

But you are seeing the wafer pricing is declining is due to the product mix or like-to-like comparison?

但您是否發現晶圓價格下降是由於產品組合或同類比較所致？

Because we heard like some other -- your peers are raising price since the beginning of this year and maybe another wave of the price hike in second half?

因為我們像其他人一樣聽說——你們的同行自今年年初以來一直在提價，也許下半年還會出現另一波提價？

I don't comment my competitors' behavior.

我不會評論競爭對手的行為。

But for TSMC, we actually what we work with our customer and once we settle down the wafer pricing, we have a commitment.

但對於台積電來說，我們實際上是與客戶合作，一旦我們確定了晶圓定價，我們就有了承諾。

We don't easily change that, okay.

我們不會輕易改變這一點，好吧。

Even we observe the raw wafer's pricing increase, we stick on our commitment to our customer.

即使我們觀察到原始晶圓價格上漲，我們仍堅持對客戶的承諾。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 提出。

The first question, you mentioned high-end smartphone unit is stronger than expected, than 3 months ago, can I say that?

第一個問題，您提到高端智能手機部門比三個月前強於預期，我可以這麼說嗎？

Yes, you can say that.

是的，你可以這麼說。

Okay.

好的。

Is that broad-based or customer-specific?

這是基礎廣泛的還是特定於客戶的？

It's broad-based.

它的基礎廣泛。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is more housekeeping.

第二個問題是更多的家務管理。

What's the outlook for the other segment Consumer, Industrial because you mentioned crypto and the smartphone?

因為您提到了加密貨幣和智能手機，所以消費者、工業等其他細分市場的前景如何？

So you are asking the third quarter segment?

所以你問的是第三季度的部分？

Okay.

好的。

In the third quarter, we see Communication improve, Computer decline the most, Consumer slightly decline, Industrial about flat.

第三季度，我們看到通信有所改善，計算機下降最多，消費略有下降，工業基本持平。

Next question will be from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗集團的 Roland Shu 提出。

Just one question.

只有一個問題。

You have sufficient capital to fund your growth and also you are generating more free cash flow.

您有足夠的資本來支持您的增長，並且您正在產生更多的自由現金流。

So are you considering to do the share buyback?

那麼您是否考慮進行股票回購？

Or by what kind of criteria you are considering to do share buyback?

或者您考慮按照什麼標准進行股票回購？

Currently, it is not in our plan.

目前，這不在我們的計劃之內。

Actually, we have done a very thorough study of how do we return cash to shareholder.

事實上，我們已經對如何向股東返還現金進行了非常深入的研究。

I think the general feedback is our shareholder prefers cash dividend than buyback.

我認為普遍的反饋是我們的股東更喜歡現金股息而不是回購。

Now we need to go to the line.

現在我們需要去排隊。

Operator, please have the next caller on the line.

接線員，請讓下一個呼叫者接通。

Our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini.

我們的第一個問題來自邁赫迪·胡賽尼（Mehdi Hosseini）。

A couple of follow-ups.

一些後續行動。

I noticed your wafer shipment in the March and June quarter has been a rather flattish while revenues down by high single digit both in March and June quarter.

我注意到你們在三月和六月季度的晶圓出貨量相當平淡，而三月和六月季度的收入均下降了高個位數。

Should we expect wafer shipment in the second half to be flattish?

我們是否應該預期下半年晶圓出貨量將持平？

Or how should we think about the trend in the second half, and again, the trend between wafer shipment and the revenues, Q3 and Q4?

或者我們應該如何看待下半年的趨勢，以及第三季度和第四季度晶圓出貨量和收入之間的趨勢？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Wafer shipment in the second half will be increasing, will be higher than the first half so as the revenue.

下半年晶圓出貨量將會增加，營收也會高於上半年。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Would your inventories remain the same?

您的庫存會保持不變嗎？

You mean our own inventory?

你是說我們自己的庫存嗎？

Yes, because your days of inventory has been coming up over the past 6, 7 months.

是的，因為您的庫存天數在過去 6、7 個月中一直在增加。

Yes.

是的。

Inventory mainly for TSMC's work-in-process and we had a 73-days inventory at the end of second quarter.

庫存主要為台積電的半成品，二季度末庫存量為73天。

With revenue of 7-nanometer, we expect that inventory will go up a few days in third quarter but will come down as we ship more 7-nanometer by end of fourth quarter.

憑藉 7 納米的營收，我們預計庫存將在第三季度增加幾天，但隨著我們在第四季度末出貨更多的 7 納米，庫存將會下降。

So our inventory are mainly work-in-process.

所以我們的庫存主要是在製品。

Okay.

好的。

And then I have a question regarding the longer-term trend, specifically on artificial intelligence.

然後我有一個關於長期趨勢的問題，特別是關於人工智能的問題。

Can you provide some qualitative assessment how you see the mix between GPU and ASIC evolving for the AI application?

您能否提供一些定性評估，您如何看待 GPU 和 ASIC 之間的組合在 AI 應用中的發展？

All right.

好的。

Mehdi, your question is with respect to future artificial intelligence-related ICs.

Mehdi，你的問題是關於未來人工智能相關的 IC。

You want us to give you some sort of qualitative descriptions about the breakdown between GPU and ASIC?

您希望我們為您提供一些有關 GPU 和 ASIC 之間細分的定性描述嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And my -- the purpose of asking this question is I'm just trying to get a sense of how the market trends are evolving and also how we should think about the difference in the die size.

我問這個問題的目的是我只是想了解市場趨勢如何演變，以及我們應該如何考慮芯片尺寸的差異。

I'm under assumption that GPUs generally are bigger dies compared to ASIC.

我假設 GPU 的芯片通常比 ASIC 更大。

And how should I think about this looking forward?

我應該如何看待這一點？

Well, we can only say that AI will be implemented in the GPU, CPU area.

嗯，我們只能說AI會在GPU、CPU領域實現。

Comment on customer's die size, no, we cannot comment on that, but it's increasing, that we can say.

評論客戶的模具尺寸，不，我們不能對此發表評論，但我們可以說它正在增加。

And AI going to be used in lot of functionalities anyway.

無論如何，人工智能將被用於很多功能。

Sure.

當然。

Let me rephrase the question.

讓我重新表述一下這個問題。

Would the wafer capacity requirement for AI be different between GPU and ASIC?

GPU 和 ASIC 之間的 AI 晶圓容量要求是否會有所不同？

The wafer requirement?

晶圓要求？

What...

什麼...

Wafer capacity requirement, does that make a difference for you, yes.

晶圓容量要求，這對您有影響嗎？是的。

So let me give you probably not exactly what you want.

所以讓我給你可能不完全是你想要的。

The biggest portion of high-performance computing today, in TSMC, is xPU, followed by GPU.

如今，在台積電，高性能計算的最大部分是 xPU，其次是 GPU。

Okay, in the high-performance computing...

好吧，在高性能計算領域...

All right.

好的。

Now with this very bright, long-term outlook of artificial intelligence, bigger die size, a lot of wafers, we will conclude our -- today's conference.

現在，憑藉人工智能的非常光明的長期前景、更大的芯片尺寸、大量的晶圓，我們將結束今天的會議。

So please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 3 hours from now.

因此，請注意，會議重播將在 3 小時內提供。

Transcript will be available 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website.

文字記錄將在 24 小時後提供，均可通過我們的網站獲取。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。