台積電 ADR (TSM) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外文）歡迎參加台積電2018年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications, and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播高級總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this conference in English only.

（操作說明）由於全球投資者正在觀看本次會議，我們將僅以英語進行本次會議。

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter, followed by our guidance for the second quarter.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在第一季度的運營，然後是我們對第二季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's co-CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電聯席 CEO C.C. Wei，將共同提供關鍵信息。

Then, TSMC's co-CEO, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

屆時，台積電聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士將主持問答環節，三位高管都將回答您的問題。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to our CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台上交給我們的首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以了解運營總結和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Can you all hear me okay?

大家能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Well, good afternoon, everyone.

嗯，大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the first quarter highlights and followed by the second quarter guidance.

我的演講將從第一季度的重點開始，然後是第二季度的指導。

In the first quarter, due to seasonality, our first quarter revenue in US dollars decreased 8.2% sequentially to USD 8.46 billion, which was at the middle of our guidance range.

第一季度，由於季節性因素，我們第一季度的美元收入環比下降 8.2% 至 84.6 億美元，處於我們指導範圍的中間。

The NT dollars revenue declined 10.6%, reflecting 2.7% appreciation in NT dollar against U.S. dollar.

新台幣收入下降 10.6%，反映新台幣兌美元升值 2.7%。

Gross margin increased 0.3 percentage point sequentially to 50.3%, as our cost improvement efforts and inventory valuation benefit offset the lower-capacity utilization and unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率環比增長 0.3 個百分點至 50.3%，因為我們的成本改善工作和庫存估值收益抵消了較低的產能利用率和不利的匯率。

Total operating expense decreased by TWD 2.1 billion and represented 10.8% of revenue versus 10.4% in the prior quarter.

總運營費用減少了 21 億新台幣，佔收入的 10.8%，而上一季度為 10.4%。

Thus, operating margin slightly decreased 0.2 percentage point to 39.0%.

因此，營業利潤率小幅下降 0.2 個百分點至 39.0%。

Overall, our first quarter EPS reached TWD 3.46, and ROE was 23% for the quarter.

總體而言，我們第一季度每股收益達到新台幣 3.46 元，本季度 ROE 為 23%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們看一下按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。

During the first quarter, Communication and Industrial/Standard decreased 19% and 4% from the prior quarter, respectively, while Computer and Consumer increased by 30% and 9%, respectively.

第一季度，通信和工業/標準分別比上一季度下降 19% 和 4%，而計算機和消費類分別增長 30% 和 9%。

Now let's take a look at our revenue by technologies.

現在讓我們來看看我們的技術收入。

10-nanometer process technology contributed 19% of our total wafer revenue in the first quarter, the combined 16/20 contribution was 22% of total wafer revenue, 28-nanometer and below advanced technologies accounted for 61% of total wafer revenue.

10 納米製程技術在第一季度貢獻了我們晶圓總收入的 19%，16/20 的總貢獻為晶圓總收入的 22%，28 納米及以下先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 61%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 684 billion, an increase of TWD 35 billion from last quarter.

我們在第一季度結束時的現金和有價證券為 6840 億新台幣，比上一季度增加了 350 億新台幣。

On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 16 billion.

負債方面，流動負債減少160億新台幣。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 2 days to 42 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數增加 2 天至 42 天。

Days of inventory increased 11 days to 63 days due to an increase of raw wafer and the 10-nanometer wafer prebuild before the capacity is converted to 7-nanometer.

庫存天數增加 11 天至 63 天，原因是原始晶圓增加以及產能轉換為 7 納米之前的 10 納米晶圓預構建。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and the CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 161 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 72 billion in capital expenditures.

在第一季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1610 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 720 億新台幣的資本支出。

So our free cash flow was TWD 89 billion.

因此，我們的自由現金流為 890 億新台幣。

We also repaid TWD 17 billion of corporate bonds and the prepaid TWD 34 billion of corporate bonds and interest.

我們還償還了170億新台幣的公司債券和340億新台幣的公司債券和利息。

As a result, our overall cash balance increased TWD 24 billion to reach TWD 578 billion at the end of the quarter.

因此，我們的整體現金餘額在本季度末增加了 240 億新台幣，達到 5780 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar term, our first quarter capital expenditure was $2.45 billion.

以美元計，我們第一季度的資本支出為 24.5 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let me turn on to the second quarter guidance.

現在讓我談談第二季度的指導。

Based on current business outlook, we expect second quarter revenue to be between USD 7.8 billion and USD 7.9 billion, which is a 7% to 8% sequential decline, but a 11.2% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of my revenue guidance.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季度收入將在 78 億美元至 79 億美元之間，環比下降 7% 至 8%，但在我的收入指導中點同比增長 11.2% .

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.20, our second quarter gross margin is expected to be between 47% and 49%.

基於 1 美元兌 29.20 新台幣的匯率假設，我們第二季度的毛利率預計在 47% 至 49% 之間。

Our second quarter operating margin is expected to be between 35% and 37%.

我們第二季度的營業利潤率預計在 35% 到 37% 之間。

Also, in the second quarter, we will again need to accrue the 10% tax on the undistributed retained earnings.

此外，在第二季度，我們將再次需要對未分配的留存收益徵收 10% 的稅。

But due to higher accumulative translation loss as a result of NT dollar appreciation against U.S. dollars, which will reduce our retained earning tax.

但由於新台幣兌美元升值導致累計匯兌損失較高，這將減少我們的留存所得稅。

Therefore, our second quarter tax rate will be between 18% to 19%.

因此，我們第二季度的稅率將在 18% 到 19% 之間。

The tax rate will then fall back to 10% to 11% level in the third and the fourth quarter, and a full year tax rate will be about 12%.

第三、四季度稅率將回落至10%至11%的水平，全年稅率約為12%。

This concludes my remarks, and I will now make comments on capital capacity and the profitability.

我的發言到此結束，我現在將對資本能力和盈利能力進行評論。

I will start with CapEx and capacity.

我將從資本支出和容量開始。

At our last conference, we stated our 2018 CapEx budget to be between USD 10.5 billion to USD 11 billion.

在上次會議上，我們表示 2018 年資本支出預算在 105 億美元至 110 億美元之間。

We now see our CapEx to be between USD 11.5 billion and USD 12 billion.

我們現在看到我們的資本支出在 115 億美元到 120 億美元之間。

The increase is due to: number one, we plan to spend about $500 million more to increase our mask-making capacity to support our customers' higher tape-out activities; and to spend about $300 million as prepayment for our high-NA EUV tools.

增加的原因是：第一，我們計劃再花費約 5 億美元來增加我們的掩模製造能力，以支持我們客戶更高的流片活動；並花費約 3 億美元作為我們的高 NA EUV 工具的預付款。

Going forward, we expect our annual CapEx in the next few years will be ranging between USD 10 billion and USD 12 billion.

展望未來，我們預計未來幾年的年度資本支出將在 100 億美元至 120 億美元之間。

Now let me explain how we are able to support our 5% to 10% long-term growth with a similar level of annual CapEx as the follows.

現在讓我解釋一下我們如何能夠以類似的年度資本支出水平支持我們 5% 到 10% 的長期增長，如下所示。

For the existing capacity, we are able to grow capacity through productivity improvement, that is, for the same tools, the output can increase every year through our engineering efforts and innovations.

對於現有產能，我們可以通過提高生產力來增加產能，也就是說，對於同樣的工具，通過我們的工程努力和創新，產量可以逐年增加。

This way, without spending fresh CapEx, we are able to grow capacity to support growth.

這樣，在不花費新資本支出的情況下，我們就能夠增加支持增長的能力。

On average, we are able to grow our overall capacity by the mid-single digit each year through the productivity improvement.

平均而言，通過提高生產力，我們能夠以每年中個位數的速度增長我們的整體產能。

Our marketing strategy with respect to the existing capacities, which grow in productivity perpetually, is to seek enough demand to fill this growing capacity at all times.

對於生產力不斷增長的現有產能，我們的營銷策略是尋求足夠的需求來滿足不斷增長的產能。

As for the new capacity which is mainly leading-age technologies, we are very careful in planning the right level of peak capacity, knowing that initial capacity we build will grow continuously to a larger size due to productivity improvement.

對於以領先技術為主的新增產能，我們非常謹慎地規劃合適的峰值產能水平，因為我們知道，由於生產力的提高，我們建設的初始產能將不斷增長到更大的規模。

To summarize, through productivity improvement and careful planning of new capacity, we are able to support revenue growth of 5% to 10% with annual CapEx at a USD 10 billion to USD 12 billion level in the next few years.

總而言之，通過提高生產力和仔細規劃新產能，我們能夠在未來幾年以 100 億美元至 120 億美元的年度資本支出支持 5% 至 10% 的收入增長。

Now let me make a comment on profitability.

現在讓我對盈利能力發表評論。

TSMC's profitability is determined by the following factors: leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, capacity utilization, cost reduction, foreign exchange rate and technology mix.

台積電的盈利能力取決於以下因素：領先技術的開發和提升、定價、產能利用率、成本降低、匯率和技術組合。

Now I will go through the changes for our second quarter gross margin compared to second quarter '17 and first quarter '18, respectively.

現在，我將分別介紹我們第二季度毛利率與 17 年第二季度和 18 年第一季度相比的變化。

Compare second quarter '18 gross margin using the midpoint of the guidance I just mentioned, which will be 48%, compare that with second quarter '17 gross margin, which was 50.8%.

使用我剛才提到的指導的中點比較 18 年第二季度的毛利率，即 48%，與 17 年第二季度的毛利率 50.8% 進行比較。

The decline of 2.8 percentage points gross margin rate is explained by 1.3 percentage point negatively due to exchange rate.

毛利率下降 2.8 個百分點的原因是匯率下降了 1.3 個百分點。

NT dollars has appreciated 3.6% from second quarter '17 to second quarter '18.

從 17 年第二季度到 18 年第二季度，新台幣升值了 3.6%。

In addition to that, there is a negative 1.5 percentage point due to unfavorable product mix and inventory valuation, which is resulting from a utilization change.

除此之外，由於利用率變化導致的不利產品組合和庫存估值導致負 1.5 個百分點。

If I compare second quarter '18 with first quarter '18, where our margin was 50.3% last quarter, the decline of 2.3 percentage point gross margin is explained mainly by the favorable 2 percentage point of inventory valuation that was embedded in the first quarter '18 gross margin, which I have explained in the last quarterly conference.

如果我將 18 年第二季度與 18 年第一季度進行比較，我們上季度的利潤率為 50.3%，毛利率下降 2.3 個百分點的主要原因是第一季度嵌入的有利 2 個百分點的庫存估值。 18 毛利率，我在上個季度會議上已經解釋過。

To conclude, our leadership in technology development and ramp-up remains solid.

總而言之，我們在技術開發和提升方面的領先地位仍然穩固。

We continue to maintain our competitive price, and we are making good progress in cost reduction.

我們繼續保持具有競爭力的價格，並且在降低成本方面取得了良好進展。

We will continue to work on filling our capacity.

我們將繼續努力填補我們的產能。

I finished my remark.

我說完。

Now let me turn the microphone to C.C. Wei for his comment.

現在讓我把麥克風轉到 C.C.魏先生髮表評論。

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Let me start with our near-term outlook.

讓我從我們的近期展望開始。

We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 248.1 billion or USD 8.46 billion in line with our guidance given 3 months ago.

我們第一季度的收入為 2481 億新台幣或 84.6 億美元，符合我們 3 個月前給出的指導。

This result was mainly driven by a strong demand from high-performance computing such as cryptocurrency mining and increases from both automotive and IoT, but offset by seasonal decline in smartphones.

這一結果主要是由於加密貨幣挖掘等高性能計算的強勁需求以及汽車和物聯網的增長，但被智能手機的季節性下降所抵消。

Moving into second quarter this year.

今年進入第二季度。

Our business is expected to be affected by continued softe demand from Smartphone segment.

我們的業務預計將受到智能手機市場需求持續疲軟的影響。

This decline is expected to be partially mitigated by the strengths in HPC.

預計 HPC 的優勢將部分緩解這種下降。

Our revenue in US dollar is likely to grow by only about a 10% over second quarter last year.

我們的美元收入可能僅比去年第二季度增長約 10%。

We forecast our fabless DOI to stay slightly above seasonal level, but will track seasonal pattern.

我們預測我們的無晶圓 DOI 將保持略高於季節性水平，但將跟踪季節性模式。

For the whole year of 2018, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, will grow by 5%, while foundry is expected to grow by about 8%.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預測整個半導體市場（不包括內存）將增長 5%，而晶圓代工預計將增長 8% 左右。

We forecast TSMC's 2018 revenue in US dollar will be about 10%, rather than the previously indicated 10% to 15% due to the Smartphone weakness and the uncertainty in cryptocurrency mining demand.

由於智能手機疲軟和加密貨幣挖礦需求的不確定性，我們預測台積電 2018 年的美元收入將約為 10%，而不是之前指出的 10% 至 15%。

Now let me talk about the long-term business growth driver.

現在讓我談談長期的業務增長動力。

We are optimistic about the development of some of the industries' mega trends, particularly AI and 5G communication.

我們看好一些行業大趨勢的發展，尤其是人工智能和 5G 通信。

We believe these 2 will help semiconductor to spread its pervasiveness to our daily lives.

我們相信這兩個將有助於半導體將其普及到我們的日常生活中。

Both AI and 5G will create the new usage models and spur new waves of demand for both of the existing and emerging applications with the increasing silicon content.

隨著矽含量的增加，人工智能和 5G 都將創造新的使用模式，並刺激對現有和新興應用的新需求浪潮。

We expect TSMC to benefit from these industry mega trends in all 4 of our growth platforms.

我們預計台積電將從我們所有四個增長平台的這些行業大趨勢中受益。

In mobile, silicon content of the smartphones will increase due to increasing functionality such as facial recognition and new usage such as AR, VR and 3D video.

在移動領域，由於面部識別等功能的增加以及 AR、VR 和 3D 視頻等新用途的增加，智能手機的矽含量將會增加。

In HPC, we expect AI will boost the attach rate of accelerators used in data center from today's mid-teens level to about 50% by 2020.

在 HPC 中，我們預計到 2020 年，人工智能將把數據中心使用的加速器的附加率從現在的青少年水平提高到 50% 左右。

In automotive, the use of the new safety-related functionalities such as ADAS and eventually autonomous driving will drive the increasing silicon usage.

在汽車領域，ADAS 等新的安全相關功能的使用以及最終的自動駕駛將推動芯片使用量的增加。

In IoT, AI will proliferate into broad-based client devices across many applications, such as the smart voice assistance or electronics appliance management.

在物聯網中，人工智能將在許多應用程序中擴散到基礎廣泛的客戶端設備中，例如智能語音輔助或電子設備管理。

These, again, will increase silicon content.

這些又將增加矽含量。

We believe our 4 growth platform are well positioned to benefit from the longer-term mega trend of AI and 5G.

我們相信，我們的 4 增長平台處於有利位置，可以從 AI 和 5G 的長期大趨勢中受益。

Our leadership in advanced and specialty technologies as well as our advanced packaging solutions should enable us to capture the future growth opportunities well.

我們在先進和專業技術方面的領先地位以及我們先進的封裝解決方案應該使我們能夠很好地抓住未來的增長機會。

Now let me talk about the N7 ramp-up.

現在讓我談談 N7 的升級。

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology in terms of performance, power and area density as well as its schedule is leading the industry.

台積電 7 納米技術在性能、功率和麵積密度以及進度方面均處於行業領先地位。

So far, we have already fabbed out more than 18 customer products with good yield and performance.

到目前為止，我們已經製造了超過 18 款具有良好良率和性能的客戶產品。

More than 50 products tape-outs has been planned by end of this year from applications across mobile, server CPU, network processor, gaming, GPU, PGA, cryptocurrency, automotive and AI.

到今年年底，已計劃從移動、服務器 CPU、網絡處理器、遊戲、GPU、PGA、加密貨幣、汽車和人工智能等應用程序中進行 50 多種產品流片。

Our 7-nanometer is already in volume production.

我們的 7 納米已經量產。

Now I'll talk about the N7+ and EUV.

現在我來談談 N7+ 和 EUV。

We believe we can extend the success of our 7-nanometer to its enhanced version N7+, which will have 20% better density and greater than 10% power reduction.

我們相信，我們可以將 7 納米的成功擴展到其增強版 N7+，其密度將提高 20%，功耗降低 10% 以上。

And N7+ will use a few EUV layers to replace immersion lithography process.

而 N7+ 將使用幾個 EUV 層來代替浸沒式光刻工藝。

As a result, fewer masking layer can be used.

結果，可以使用更少的掩蔽層。

As the N7+ will use more than 90% of the same tools with the N7 and N10, where we have finetuned all the advanced equipment to their optimum condition during their ramp-up, we believe we can leverage our production learning to N7+ and enjoy the industry's best defect density among competitors of comparable technologies.

由於 N7+ 將使用 90% 以上與 N7 和 N10 相同的工具，在這些工具中，我們已將所有先進設備微調到它們的最佳狀態，因此我們相信我們可以利用我們對 N7+ 的生產學習並享受在同類技術的競爭對手中，業界最佳的缺陷密度。

Our N7+ silicon results to-date are very encouraging.

迄今為止，我們的 N7+ 芯片結果非常令人鼓舞。

Not only we have demonstrated equivalent or better performance in yield on both 256-megabit SRAM and on product-like test vehicle when compared to N7 baseline, we have also demonstrated a tighter distribution of electrical parameters in the layers where EUV is supplied.

與 N7 基線相比，我們不僅在 256 兆位 SRAM 和類似產品的測試車輛上展示了等效或更好的良率性能，而且我們還展示了提供 EUV 的層中電氣參數的更緊密分佈。

Since we maximize design rule compatibility between N7 and N7+, our customer can minimize the IP porting effect -- effort, I'm sorry.

由於我們最大限度地提高了 N7 和 N7+ 之間的設計規則兼容性，我們的客戶可以最大限度地減少 IP 移植效應——努力，對不起。

A few customers have already planned to tape out the N7+ in second half this year and more in the first half next year.

一些客戶已經計劃在今年下半年和明年上半年推出更多的 N7+。

Our N7+ volume production is planned in 2019, which remain unchanged.

我們的 N7+ 計劃在 2019 年量產，保持不變。

We have made ready multiple EUV scanners to support not only N7+ development, but also N5 development.

我們已經準備好多台 EUV 掃描儀，不僅支持 N7+ 開發，還支持 N5 開發。

At N5, with more extensive use of EUV, we have obtained consistent double-digit yield on 256-megabit SRAM as well as our larger test chip.

在 N5，隨著 EUV 的更廣泛使用，我們在 256 兆位 SRAM 以及我們更大的測試芯片上獲得了一致的兩位數良率。

Our silicon data has proved or the benefits we expect from process simplification with EUV.

我們的矽數據已經證明或我們期望從 EUV 簡化工藝中獲益。

Besides the silicon development, EUV technology continues to mature toward a high volume production with the improving source power toward the 250-watts goal, which we expect to achieve in a few quarters.

除了矽片開發之外，EUV 技術繼續向大批量生產成熟，源功率向 250 瓦目標不斷提高，我們預計將在幾個季度內實現這一目標。

Good progress continues to be made in the EUV infrastructure in the last few months.

過去幾個月，EUV 基礎設施繼續取得良好進展。

They include photoresist, mask defect and yield, pellicle defects and transmission.

它們包括光刻膠、掩模缺陷和良率、薄膜缺陷和透射率。

We are confident that EUV can meet our goal of 2019 volume production for N7+ and 2020 volume production for N5.

我們有信心 EUV 能夠實現我們 2019 年 N7+ 量產和 2020 年 N5 量產的目標。

Now let me move to 16-FinFET and 12-FinFET.

現在讓我談談 16-FinFET 和 12-FinFET。

We introduced our 16-FinFET in 2015 and then 12FFC in 2017.

我們在 2015 年推出了 16-FinFET，然後在 2017 年推出了 12FFC。

Compared with the 16-nanometer, our 12-nanometer technology delivers better density, performance and more efficient power.

與 16 納米相比，我們的 12 納米技術可提供更好的密度、性能和更高效的功率。

With continual improvement in yield, customer are gradually moving from 16-nanometer to 12-nanometer.

隨著良率的不斷提高，客戶逐漸從 16 納米轉向 12 納米。

Among all the product tape-outs we received for this year on the 16/12 node, about 30% are for 12FFC.

在我們今年收到的 16/12 節點的所有產品流片中，大約 30% 用於 12FFC。

The application of 16/12 includes mobile, GPU, AI, networking FPGA, consumer application and automotive.

16/12的應用包括移動、GPU、AI、網絡FPGA、消費類應用和汽車。

Our capacity of 12/16 node is being fully loaded currently.

我們的 12/16 節點容量目前正在滿負荷運行。

Now let me update on Nanjing fab.

現在讓我更新一下南京工廠。

We expect to expand our business in China.

我們希望擴大我們在中國的業務。

Our Nanjing fab will enhance our support to local customers.

我們的南京工廠將加強我們對當地客戶的支持。

Because of high demand on 16-nanometer, we had advanced the startup of Nanjing production.

由於對16納米的需求很大，我們已經推進了南京生產的啟動。

The production of our Nanjing plant starts this month.

我們南京工廠的生產將於本月開始。

Both yield and performance are comparable to our 16-nanometer Taiwan fab.

產量和性能都與我們的 16 納米台灣工廠相當。

Our advanced packaging -- now let me talk about the last item.

我們的高級包裝——現在讓我談談最後一項。

Our advanced packaging technology, InFO and CoWoS, are becoming more important for our customer to reduce their product footprint, packaging thickness, while enhancing the performance.

我們先進的封裝技術 InFO 和 CoWoS 對我們的客戶來說變得越來越重要，以減少他們的產品佔地面積、封裝厚度，同時提高性能。

TSMC's InFO is in its third year of volume production.

台積電的 InFO 進入量產第三年。

We have expanded its capability to cover large die size, so that we can integrate 2 or more chips together into 1 package.

我們已將其能力擴展到覆蓋大芯片尺寸，因此我們可以將 2 個或更多芯片集成到 1 個封裝中。

This is particularly useful for HPC product to obtain optimum cost performance benefit.

這對於 HPC 產品獲得最佳性價比優勢特別有用。

And CoWoS, we have observed a growing number of tape-outs from HPC customers in graphic and networking segment.

對於 CoWoS，我們觀察到圖形和網絡領域 HPC 客戶的流片數量越來越多。

As a result, we are increasing our capacity now to support the demand.

因此，我們現在正在增加我們的能力來支持需求。

And thank you for your attention.

並感謝您的關注。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

（操作員說明）將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answer your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) So Mark will host the Q&A session.

（操作員說明）所以 Mark 將主持問答環節。

The first question will be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

第一個問題將來自瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

I want to ask the first question about the demand and pricing environment.

我想問關於需求和定價環境的第一個問題。

Just first on pricing.

首先是定價。

In first quarter, the shipments were down just 1% and revenue was down 8%.

第一季度，出貨量僅下降 1%，收入下降 8%。

I'm curious if that's mainly the mix factor, because 10 fell off, or if there's any change in pricing maybe on some of the more mature nodes?

我很好奇這是否主要是混合因素，因為 10 下降了，或者在一些更成熟的節點上定價是否有任何變化？

And then if you could talk a bit more on the demand change versus what you've seen in January, how much from Smartphone?

然後，如果您可以多談談需求變化與您在一月份看到的情況相比，智能手機帶來了多少？

And then from the crypto, you talked about uncertainty, how much is coming from that market?

然後從加密貨幣中，你談到了不確定性，有多少來自那個市場？

And what are the uncertainty factors you're seeing on the crypto market?

你在加密市場上看到的不確定因素是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Lora, please.

勞拉，請。

Randy, your question is about the first quarter versus fourth quarter, quantity versus pricing.

蘭迪，你的問題是關於第一季度與第四季度，數量與定價。

It is true that the first quarter pricing was affected by the product mix because we have very high utilization on the 16- and 10-nanometer, and that's the case.

確實，第一季度的定價受到產品組合的影響，因為我們在 16 和 10 納米上的利用率非常高，情況就是如此。

I think Randy also has a part of the question about the changing our forecast compared to January.

我認為蘭迪也有部分問題是我們的預測與 1 月份相比發生了變化。

Okay.

好的。

C.C., about the product mix?

C.C.，關於產品組合？

The product mix, actually the first quarter, we just mentioned weakness of seasonality, actually.

產品組合，實際上是第一季度，我們剛剛提到了季節性疲軟。

Let me say that's in Smartphones.

讓我說那是在智能手機中。

All other segment actually continue to grow, okay, in the HPC, automotive, IoT.

所有其他領域實際上都在繼續增長，好吧，在 HPC、汽車、物聯網。

However, that our revenue, a lot of caution is around Smartphone.

然而，我們的收入，很多謹慎是圍繞智能手機。

So that's why we have a mixed effect in the technology.

所以這就是為什麼我們在這項技術中產生了混合效應。

Our smartphone use most leading-edge technology, and that's why a few percentage drop -- that's a big drop in the revenue.

我們的智能手機使用最前沿的技術，這就是為什麼會下降幾個百分點——這是收入的大幅下降。

And the second part of that question and I have -- the second question was just about the crypto, if you could talk a bit more about the uncertainties?

這個問題的第二部分，我有 - 第二個問題只是關於加密，如果你能多談談不確定性嗎？

And if you've seen that sustained?

如果你看到這種情況持續存在？

Or you're seeing more uncertainties?

或者你看到更多的不確定性？

So just the factors you're seeing in that market.

所以只是你在那個市場上看到的因素。

And then the second question I have is on 7-nanometer plus.

然後我的第二個問題是關於 7 納米以上。

If you could discuss how you're seeing that ramp in terms of steepness at this stage relative to -- we've seen steep ramps of 10 and 16 before, if you're seeing steep ramp going into 7 plus?

如果你能討論一下你在這個階段相對於陡峭的斜坡是如何看待這個斜坡的——我們之前已經看到了 10 和 16 的陡峭斜坡，如果你看到陡峭的斜坡進入 7 加？

And also just how important it is to have a steep ramp?

還有一個陡峭的坡道有多重要？

So in terms of -- how important it is to have that steep ramp just in terms of the learning as you try to bring customers onto EUV?

因此，就您嘗試將客戶帶入 EUV 的學習而言，陡峭的坡道有多重要？

So how important is it to have a big volume ramp on 7 plus?

那麼在 7 plus 上有一個大的音量斜坡有多重要呢？

7 plus ramp?

7加坡道？

For your EUV development?

為您的 EUV 開發？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that.

讓我來回答。

It's cryptocurrency.

是加密貨幣。

We see a very strong demand in the first quarter from cryptocurrency and -- in the first quarter.

我們看到第一季度對加密貨幣的需求非常強勁，而且 - 在第一季度。

So during this second quarter, this is start of the second quarter, we see some weakness on 28-nanometer, but the rest of the technology is still very strong on cryptocurrency.

所以在第二季度，這是第二季度的開始，我們看到了 28 納米技術的一些弱點，但其他技術在加密貨幣方面仍然非常強大。

Does your second question is on the 7 plus ramp?

您的第二個問題是關於 7 plus 坡道嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's -- yes, 2 parts, it's how steep you're seeing?

它是——是的，兩部分，你看到的有多陡？

Or how much demand inflection are you seeing for 7 plus?

或者您看到 7 plus 的需求變化有多大？

And how important is it to TSMC to have a wide adoption in terms of the learning to move customers on 7 plus in terms of learning as you look at 5 and even against your competitors?

對於台積電來說，在學習方面廣泛採用 7 以及在學習方面對 5 甚至與競爭對手的競爭有多重要？

7 plus, we -- I mentioned, we are using a few layers of EUV.

7 plus，我們——我提到過，我們使用了幾層 EUV。

And the EUV's progress is very well, so our customers start to adopt it.

而且 EUV 的進展非常好，所以我們的客戶開始採用它。

And how important?

以及有多重要？

It's important.

這一點很重要。

And we expect that N7+ will start to ramp up in the second half of next year quickly.

我們預計 N7+ 將在明年下半年開始快速增長。

Actually, it's ramping up quickly because of Smartphone business.

實際上，由於智能手機業務，它正在迅速增長。

I think 7 plus, we have EUV development, as C.C. just addressed, progress smoothly, and we have demonstrated 7 plus yield equivalent to 7. So the rest is volume.

我認為 7 plus，我們有 EUV 開發，如 C.C.剛剛解決，進展順利，我們已經證明了 7 plus yield 相當於 7。所以剩下的就是數量。

But I think the volume is -- we don't need a huge volume to prove EUV because all the development is in place, and the biggest volume ramp will be in N5, which is 2020, already in 2019 have some small volume.

但我認為體積是——我們不需要大量的體積來證明 EUV，因為所有的開發都已經到位，最大的體積增長將在 N5，也就是 2020 年，到 2019 年已經有一些小體積。

And N7+ will slightly prelude that but we don't need as bigger volume to enable the N5.

N7+ 會稍微提前，但我們不需要更大的體積來啟用 N5。

No, we just need some volume to prove that.

不，我們只需要一些量來證明這一點。

N7+ provide better density, better performance for our N7 customer following their N7 products, either they want to stay on N7, go to N7+ or they can from N7 go to N5, depend on their product needs.

N7+ 為我們的 N7 客戶在 N7 產品之後提供更好的密度、更好的性能，他們要么想留在 N7 上，轉到 N7+，要么他們可以從 N7 轉到 N5，這取決於他們的產品需求。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行，Michael Chou。

First question is regarding your revised guidance for 2018.

第一個問題是關於您對 2018 年的修訂指南。

So can we say you will still have the same 7-nanometer sales ratio target this year, 10%?

那麼我們可以說你們今年仍將保持相同的 7 納米銷售比例目標，即 10% 嗎？

10% gross?

10% 毛額？

Yes, around 10%.

是的，大約 10%。

Around 10%.

大約 10%。

Yes.

是的。

So it's still the same outlook as we -- as you expected 3 month ago?

所以它仍然和我們一樣 - 正如你在 3 個月前所預期的那樣？

It's -- as I said, Smartphone, it will be weak.

它是——正如我所說，智能手機，它會很弱。

So continue to be soft that we predict today.

因此，繼續保持我們今天預測的柔軟。

So it's -- they're all dealing -- the 7-nanometers, it's a little bit 1 point of.

所以它 - 他們都在處理 - 7 納米，它有點 1 點。

Okay.

好的。

So is that fair to say 7-nanometer sales portion maybe slightly below your previous target?

那麼，公平地說 7 納米的銷售部分可能略低於您之前的目標嗎？

Or you still think this should be close to 10%?

還是您仍然認為這應該接近 10%？

Very close.

很接近。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is regarding your structural profitability.

第二個問題是關於你的結構性盈利能力。

Do you think this year your structural profitability will improve or be the same as last year?

您認為今年您的結構性盈利能力會改善還是與去年相同？

I have said several points that associated with structural profitability: technology, pricing, cost, capacity utilization, exchange rate and product mix.

我已經說過與結構性盈利能力相關的幾點：技術、定價、成本、產能利用率、匯率和產品組合。

On this, there are certain things we cannot control.

在這方面，有些事情是我們無法控制的。

Number one, foreign exchange, we cannot control.

第一，外匯，我們無法控制。

Product mix always go with the customers' demand.

產品組合始終符合客戶的需求。

So while we have seen some weakness in the first half for the mobile and there are certain technology of our existing customer capacity maybe not so full for the whole year and that will be one factor to our overall structural profitability.

因此，雖然我們在上半年看到了移動業務的一些疲軟，並且我們現有客戶容量的某些技術可能全年都沒有那麼充分，這將是我們整體結構盈利能力的一個因素。

But I think our objective to maintain or improve structural profitability remain unchanged, but there are market situation and some uncertainty we have to be mindful.

但我認為我們保持或提高結構性盈利能力的目標沒有改變，但我們必須注意市場情況和一些不確定性。

So is that fair to say your biggest uncertainty will be FX rather than the other factors?

那麼公平地說，你最大的不確定性將是外匯而不是其他因素嗎？

FX at least explain half of the deviation of our profitability.

外匯至少解釋了我們盈利能力偏差的一半。

The other fair half, I think, it's mainly utilization, product mix and other factors.

另一半，我認為主要是利用率，產品組合和其他因素。

So is that fair to say your 28-nanometer UTR slightly below your expectation?

那麼說您的 28 納米 UTR 略低於您的預期是否公平？

So that could lead to some margin downside?

那麼這可能會導致一些利潤率下降嗎？

It could.

它可能。

Next question will be coming from Sinolink's Andrew Lu.

下一個問題將來自國金集團的 Andrew Lu。

(foreign language) Last time I came back, year 2010, Morris, the chairman give me 3 question to ask.

（外語）上次回來，2010年，莫里斯，董事長給了我3個問題要問。

Can I get this exception?

我能得到這個例外嗎？

You have 2.

你有 2 個。

Okay.

好的。

The second quarter guidance or full year guidance, is this factoring the ZTE recently been banned by U.S. to sale the chip to ZTE?

二季度指引還是全年指引，這算不算中興通訊最近被美國禁止向中興通訊出售芯片？

Is this factored in into your model?

這是否包含在您的模型中？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

The second half this year?

今年下半年？

Almost second quarter.

快到第二季了。

Second quarter.

第二季度。

Second half also as well.

下半場也一樣。

No, we haven't.

不，我們沒有。

The news just -- we got the news just yesterday.

剛剛的消息——我們昨天才得到消息。

But we think the effect is very, very minimal.

但我們認為影響非常非常小。

Currently, we are still under study what is the impact of ZTE suppliers, but for first glance that we look at, we have a very wide customer portfolio.

目前，我們仍在研究中興通訊供應商的影響，但乍一看，我們擁有非常廣泛的客戶組合。

So ZTE depends what they're supplied from, and we have -- being everyone's foundry, we have very wide spread.

所以中興通訊取決於它們的供應來源，而我們有——作為每個人的代工廠，我們的分佈非常廣泛。

So I think the impact will be softened much, much more.

所以我認為影響會被緩和很多很多。

Much -- so we think that minimal impact on second quarter.

很多——所以我們認為這對第二季度的影響很小。

You won't see the number change.

你不會看到數字變化。

You're going to see...

你會看到...

Which quarter, sorry?

哪個季度，對不起？

Second quarter you're talking about.

你說的第二季。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

The second question I have -- okay, in terms of cash dividend, I estimate every year, we got additional $2 billion to $3 billion additional cash, even though we pay a lot of cash dividend, and are we going to give a much higher payout ratio compared to in the past few years?

我的第二個問題——好吧，就現金股息而言，我估計每年我們都會額外獲得 20 億至 30 億美元的額外現金，即使我們支付了很多現金股息，我們是否會給出更高的與過去幾年相比的派息率？

Because even this year, by factoring the new cash dividend, we still generate additional cash.

因為即使在今年，通過考慮新的現金股息，我們仍然會產生額外的現金。

So right now, I think it's over $20 billion on-hand cash already.

所以現在，我認為手頭現金已經超過 200 億美元。

So we are -- keep going out every year $2 billion to $3 billion.

所以我們 - 每年持續投入 20 億到 30 億美元。

So that's my question.

所以這就是我的問題。

We have said many times our dividend policy to be sustainable and gradually increase dividend.

我們多次說過我們的股息政策是可持續的並逐步增加股息。

We haven't really tied to a payout ratio per se, but we do look at free cash flow generation next 12 months, next 24 months.

我們並沒有真正與派息率本身掛鉤，但我們確實關注未來 12 個月、未來 24 個月的自由現金流產生。

We use that as a basis to decide how much more dividend we are going to gradually increase.

我們以此為基礎來決定我們將逐步增加多少股息。

So it's $20 billion to date, and I have said, the CapEx will be $10 billion to $12 billion.

所以到目前為止是 200 億美元，我已經說過，資本支出將在 100 億美元到 120 億美元之間。

We do have a capability in the future to increase a little bit more than we have been increasing in the past.

我們確實有能力在未來比過去增加一點。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question is, C.C., do you still hold a view that 10-nanometer total revenue will continue to grow this year?

第一個問題，C.C.，你是否仍然認為今年 10 納米的總收入會繼續增長？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Okay.

好的。

So for 10-nanometer to continue to grow on top of this 10% year-on-year revenue growth and 7-nanometer around 10% growth from scratch.

因此，10 納米在收入同比增長 10% 和 7 納米從零開始增長約 10% 的基礎上繼續增長。

So both 7-nanometer and 10-nanometer probably total contribute more than 10% of the total growth this year.

因此，7 納米和 10 納米可能對今年的總增長貢獻了 10% 以上。

So does that mean that for 20-nanometer and 40-nanometer and above technology that total revenue is not going to grow?

那麼這是否意味著 20 納米和 40 納米及以上技術的總收入不會增長？

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

You are doing a very good mathematic calculation.

你正在做一個非常好的數學計算。

I don't want to comment on that.

我不想對此發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

So what's the reason for this 28-nanometer and the 40-nanometer and above does not grow?

那麼這個28納米和40納米及以上不增長的原因是什麼？

Does that because that end demand is soft?

這是因為最終需求疲軟嗎？

Or is this due to the capacity constraint?

還是因為容量限制？

Or we are losing market share to...

或者我們正在失去市場份額...

I would say that a lot of 28-nanometers usage has been advancing to the more advanced node.

我會說很多 28 納米的使用已經推進到更先進的節點。

So the utilization definitely is not what we expected last year.

所以利用率肯定不是我們去年的預期。

But all I can say is, we remain very competitive, and we are developing some derivative technology to serve all the customer.

但我只能說，我們仍然很有競爭力，我們正在開發一些衍生技術來服務所有客戶。

We move into the 22-nanometers to have our customer can get a very good cost performance benefit, and we are maintaining our market segment share.

我們進入 22 納米是為了讓我們的客戶可以獲得非常好的性價比優勢，並且我們正在保持我們的細分市場份額。

Okay.

好的。

But last year actually, we also expanded about 15% to 20% of the capacity for 28-nanometer.

但實際上，去年我們也將 28 納米的產能擴大了大約 15% 到 20%。

So is there any problem to fulfill the capacity this year?

那麼今年去產能有什麼問題嗎？

Last year, we increased the capacity because of a very high demand.

去年，由於需求量很大，我們增加了產能。

And a lot of customer did not have enough wafer.

而且很多客戶沒有足夠的晶圓。

That continue into this year's first quarter and probably half of this quarter.

這種情況一直持續到今年第一季度，可能是本季度的一半。

But at the end, they move forward faster than we thought.

但最終，他們前進的速度比我們想像的要快。

So that's why that we see a little bit weakness in the second half.

所以這就是為什麼我們在下半場看到了一些弱點。

Okay.

好的。

So are we going to -- how are we going to utilize this new added capacity?

那麼我們要——我們將如何利用這個新增的容量？

We have a lot of new application being developed, and trust me that one day, you will be fully loaded again.

我們有很多新的應用程序正在開發中，相信我有一天，你會再次滿載而歸。

I hope, it's as quickly as possible, but technology product development takes time.

我希望盡快，但技術產品開發需要時間。

Okay.

好的。

For -- second question is for Nanjing fab, now we have already started mass production and we have 20,000 wafer per month capacity.

第二個問題是南京晶圓廠，現在我們已經開始量產，我們有每月20,000片晶圓的產能。

So is there any plan to further expand the capacity in Nanjing fab?

那麼有沒有計劃進一步擴大南京工廠的產能呢？

20,000 wafer per month is still our plan.

每月 20,000 片晶圓仍然是我們的計劃。

We plan for this year all the way to next year.

我們計劃今年一直到明年。

But we ramp up so quickly, actually it surprised us.

但是我們發展得如此之快，實際上它讓我們感到驚訝。

Okay.

好的。

For the further capacity expansion in Nanjing, are we going to buy the new equipment?

南京進一步擴能，是否要購買新設備？

Or are we going to continue allocating from Taiwan?

還是繼續從台灣分配？

We probably still at the first phase is still moving the equipment from Taiwan.

我們大概還在第一階段，還在從台灣搬設備。

First phase means the 20,000?

第一階段意味著20,000？

Is...

是...

Yes, majority of 20,000.

是的，大多數是 20,000。

So that is ongoing?

所以這還在進行中？

Or that is already done?

還是已經完成了？

Is 20,000 capacity moved...

20,000 容量是否移動...

Okay.

好的。

Let me give you an idea.

讓我給你一個想法。

We are fully loaded, so I cannot move any equipment right now.

我們已經滿載，所以我現在不能移動任何設備。

Anything we move we will lose the capacity.

我們移動的任何東西都會失去容量。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Will Lu.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀，Will Lu。

First question is for Lora.

第一個問題是給勞拉的。

Lora talked about productivity improvements leading to mid-single-digit capacity increases.

Lora 談到了生產力的提高，導致了中個位數的產能增長。

So 2-part question.

所以兩部分的問題。

One is, is that capacity increase pretty even across all the mature nodes?

一個是，即使在所有成熟節點上，容量增加也相當不錯？

Or is it certain nodes that you're seeing bigger increase?

還是您看到某些節點的增長幅度更大？

Second part of the question is that mid-single digit going forward, what was that number in the past?

問題的第二部分是未來的中個位數，過去那個數字是多少？

I didn't hear your second question, sorry.

我沒有聽到你的第二個問題，抱歉。

If you look at productivity improvements in the past, what has that number been?

如果您查看過去的生產力改進，那麼這個數字是多少？

Okay.

好的。

Let me elaborate about productivity.

讓我詳細說明生產力。

As you can imagine, when the new technology just launch, in the first few years, you have very significant productivity improvement.

可以想像，當新技術剛剛推出時，在最初的幾年裡，您的生產力會有非常顯著的提高。

And then when it gets mature, we have a stable productivity improvement.

然後當它成熟時，我們就有了穩定的生產力提升。

But when it gets very, very old, you can have limited productivity improvement.

但是當它變得非常非常陳舊時，您的生產力提高就會有限。

So the 5% I was just referring to is an average for the company.

所以我剛才提到的 5% 是公司的平均值。

So -- but it's not the same for every technology.

所以——但對於每種技術來說，情況並不相同。

Your second question is compare with?

你的第二個問題是比較？

Yes.

是的。

That mid single digits per year, what has it been in the past?

每年的中間個位數，過去是什麼？

Oh, very similar.

哦，很像。

We have been doing the mid single digit.

我們一直在做中間個位數。

Maybe some year, it's 1% more; some years, it's 1% less.

也許某年，它會多出 1%；幾年，它減少了1％。

But more or less, it's in the mid-single-digit range.

但或多或少，它在中個位數範圍內。

So I guess I'm not really sure why that impacts your CapEx plans then because it's always been like that, right?

所以我想我不太確定為什麼這會影響你的資本支出計劃，因為它一直都是這樣，對吧？

It does.

確實如此。

Because another factor other than the productivity is, we also very carefully plan the peak capacity and watch very carefully for the capacity migration.

因為除了生產力之外的另一個因素是，我們也非常仔細地規劃了峰值容量，並且非常仔細地觀察了容量遷移。

C.C. was talking about the technology we'll use 90% commonality of tools.

C.C.是在談論我們將使用 90% 通用工具的技術。

If you remember what I said a couple of years ago, the number was at 70%, 80%.

如果你記得我幾年前說過的話，這個數字是 70%、80%。

So by doing that, it actually enhance the productivity improvement, especially for the leading-edge technology.

因此，通過這樣做，它實際上提高了生產力，特別是對於前沿技術。

That's one contribution to that.

這是對此的貢獻之一。

The second question is on cryptocurrency.

第二個問題是關於加密貨幣的。

This is pretty new to many of us, and I feel like TSMC has been pretty conservative in terms of looking at it in the short term that's the right thing to do.

這對我們許多人來說都是新事物，我覺得台積電在短期內認為這是正確的做法。

But if you look at it for the next couple of years, 2019, 2020 as you think about your capacity planning, as you think about what customers to support, this is a market that is changing so fast.

但是，如果您在考慮容量規劃、考慮支持哪些客戶的同時考慮未來幾年（2019 年、2020 年），那麼這個市場變化如此之快。

How do you think about it strategically?

你如何看待它的戰略？

Okay.

好的。

We don't look at the cryptocurrency's market price.

我們不看加密貨幣的市場價格。

It can drop from USD 20,000 to -- down to right now USD 8,000.

它可以從 20,000 美元下降到現在的 8,000 美元。

But it increased from $1,000 to $20,000.

但它從 1,000 美元增加到 20,000 美元。

This kind of uncertainty that -- is what we are talking about.

這種不確定性——就是我們所說的。

In terms of capacity support, unless it is sustainable demand, we will not increase the capacity because of this kind of uncertainty demand coming up, unless it's sustainable, in which I know that our customer is developing a lot of things on blockchain technology, AI.

在產能支持方面，除非是可持續的需求，否則我們不會增加產能，因為這種不確定性需求即將到來，除非是可持續的，我知道我們的客戶正在開發區塊鏈技術，人工智能方面的很多東西.

They are doing very well.

他們做得很好。

And we expect that those cryptocurrency's minings, those same one slowly move to AI area.

我們預計那些加密貨幣的挖礦，同樣的挖礦會慢慢轉移到人工智能領域。

So do you have an estimate for -- if you look at the crypto plus blockchain, how fast is that you may going to grow next several years?

那麼你有沒有估計——如果你看一下加密加區塊鏈，你未來幾年的增長速度有多快？

First, I always say uncertainty of cryptocurrency mining, so how can I put them together to give you a very good forecast?

首先，我總是說加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性，那麼我怎樣才能把它們放在一起給你一個很好的預測呢？

No, we don't.

不，我們沒有。

Let me add.

讓我補充一下。

We increase our capacity in lieu of the invested capital ROIC, return on capitals.

我們增加我們的能力來代替投資資本的投資回報率，資本回報率。

So if a demand is a spike demand, we will be very careful.

所以如果一個需求是一個尖峰需求，我們會非常小心。

But we support -- we try to support the -- our customer in every way.

但我們支持——我們試圖以各種方式支持——我們的客戶。

What cryptocurrency developing is that because of price sliding, their demand of high-end technologies increases.

加密貨幣發展的是，由於價格下滑，他們對高端技術的需求增加。

So the trail-end becoming not that productive for them.

因此，尾端對他們來說變得不那麼富有成效。

So this is the changing.

所以這就是變化。

And in one way, we try to support them with the more advanced technology as we -- quickly at time goes.

一方面，我們試圖用更先進的技術支持他們——隨著時間的推移很快。

And secondly, we support them on our available capacity.

其次，我們在可用容量上支持他們。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

So I actually want to follow up Bill's question on your productivity and CapEx.

所以我實際上想跟進比爾關於您的生產力和資本支出的問題。

So first of all, can you comment on recent chatters about the EUV throughput issue?

所以首先，你能評論一下最近關於 EUV 吞吐量問題的討論嗎？

And is that related to your more volatile CapEx range?

這是否與您更不穩定的資本支出範圍有關？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

I think Charlie is asking whether or not we can give additional color about the rumored EUV throughput problems and if that's the problem that causes our CapEx to be more volatile.

我認為查理在問我們是否可以就傳聞中的 EUV 吞吐量問題提供額外的色彩，以及這是否是導致我們的資本支出更加不穩定的問題。

The EUV progress.

EUV 進展。

As we said, we move smoothly and we've got encouraging result.

正如我們所說，我們進展順利，取得了令人鼓舞的結果。

So that's why I say we are confident that will support the N7+ volume production and the N5 volume production in 2020.

這就是為什麼我說我們有信心在 2020 年支持 N7+ 量產和 N5 量產。

Now you're asking about why we increased the CapEx?

現在你問我們為什麼增加資本支出？

Because we want to buy a very advanced EUV, too, I call high-NA tools.

因為我們也想購買非常先進的 EUV，所以我稱之為高 NA 工具。

And that require that we put some deposit to book the machine slot.

這需要我們存一些押金來預訂機位。

That's why we did it.

這就是我們這樣做的原因。

And we are happy that the high-NA machine will be ready for us to use in the future that will further improve the efficiency and hopefully that increase the productivity, lower down the cost.

我們很高興高數值孔徑的機器將來可以供我們使用，這將進一步提高效率，並有望提高生產力，降低成本。

Just make sure these are high numerical aperture in EUV.

只要確保這些是 EUV 中的高數值孔徑。

It's not that same EUV we're doing that.

這與我們正在做的 EUV 不同。

It is the next-generation EUV tools.

它是下一代 EUV 工具。

We work with ASML to book the tool early.

我們與 ASML 合作以儘早預訂該工具。

And those tool currently is targeting at technology beyond 3-nanometer.

而這些工具目前的目標是超過 3 納米的技術。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the clarification because investors in general are a little bit nervous about this EUV progress because it's associated to so-called Moore's Law progress, right?

感謝您的澄清，因為投資者普遍對 EUV 的進展有點緊張，因為它與所謂的摩爾定律進展有關，對吧？

So that rumor is that the daily throughput is now around 1,000 wafers per day, right?

所以有傳言說現在的日產量約為每天 1,000 片晶圓，對吧？

So it's not that economical.

所以不是那麼經濟。

And my worry is that whether they can affect your 7-nanometer-plus cost structure because you still need to use EUV, but the layer of the EUV usage could be fewer than your previous extensions.

而我擔心的是，它們是否會影響你的 7 納米以上成本結構，因為你仍然需要使用 EUV，但 EUV 使用的層數可能比你之前的擴展少。

So anyway, that -- the least -- what market is chattering about.

所以無論如何，這 - 至少 - 市場在喋喋不休。

And my second part of the question is about the end markets.

我的第二部分問題是關於終端市場。

Okay.

好的。

So it's a very difficult market to predict.

所以這是一個很難預測的市場。

We understand.

我們明白。

But can you clarify the -- your comment on the weak smartphone demand.

但是，您能否澄清一下您對智能手機需求疲軟的評論。

Because I think now China's smartphone, at least, you see some seasonality, right?

因為我認為現在中國的智能手機，至少，你看到了一些季節性，對吧？

So why that is not reflected to your revenue guidance upside?

那麼為什麼這沒有反映在您的收入指導上呢？

And according to our analysis, we think some of your customers shrink die size significantly this year.

根據我們的分析，我們認為您的一些客戶今年顯著縮小了芯片尺寸。

Is that affect the wafer demand for you at a 16-nanometer?

這會影響您對 16 納米晶圓的需求嗎？

This is my second question.

這是我的第二個問題。

The question is quite long, but let me give you some explanation.

這個問題很長，但讓我給你一些解釋。

Yes.

是的。

We do see China as a market start to pick up in the smartphone.

我們確實將中國視為智能手機市場開始回暖。

But in TSMC, we -- in our smartphone market segment, some very high end smartphone is a little bit soft.

但是在台積電，我們——在我們的智能手機細分市場，一些非常高端的智能手機有點軟。

So that's why we projected that is going to be continuous softness.

所以這就是為什麼我們預計這將是持續的柔軟度。

Okay.

好的。

It's not because of the China market that's -- that start to pick up slowly.

這並不是因為中國市場——開始緩慢回升。

Now we will like to go to the lines for questions.

現在我們想去排隊提問。

Operator, could you please get to the first caller on the line?

接線員，您能接聽第一個來電者嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our first question today comes from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a follow-up question on crypto.

我剛剛有一個關於加密的後續問題。

For C.C. Wei, you mentioned it was a strong crypto, a strong Q1.

對於 C.C.魏，你提到它是一個強大的加密貨幣，一個強大的第一季度。

Can you confirm if this is double-digit percent of sales or not?

您能否確認這是否是銷售額的兩位數百分比？

And then, just looking at your revised outlook for 2018, can you help us how we should think about crypto in second half?

然後，看看你修改後的 2018 年展望，你能幫助我們如何看待下半年的加密貨幣嗎？

Do you expect crypto to be flat or up or down versus the first half in your revised outlook?

在修訂後的展望中，您是否期望加密貨幣與上半年持平或上漲或下跌？

All right.

好的。

Brett, let me just repeat your question again.

布雷特，讓我再重複一遍你的問題。

You were asking about the cryptocurrency and where C.C. said that demand was growing in the first quarter.

您在詢問加密貨幣以及 C.C.表示第一季度需求正在增長。

So you are asking if first quarter demand accounted for 10% of the total first quarter revenue.

所以你問的是第一季度的需求是否佔第一季度總收入的 10%。

And then second half cryptocurrency demand, will that be larger or smaller than the first half cryptocurrency demand.

然後下半年加密貨幣需求將大於或小於上半年加密貨幣需求。

That's your question, right?

那是你的問題，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer the question carefully because I already said the uncertainty of cryptocurrency's mining as we forecast in the future.

讓我仔細回答這個問題，因為我已經說過我們未來預測的加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性。

But so far, we still think that cryptocurrency in the second half still have a higher demand than the first half.

但到目前為止，我們仍然認為下半年的加密貨幣需求仍然高於上半年。

And they are using more advanced technologies.

他們正在使用更先進的技術。

They're even moving to the 7-nanometer.

他們甚至正在轉向 7 納米。

That, I can share with you.

那，我可以和你分享。

And can you confirm whether it was double digit or 10% of sales or north in Q1 for crypto?

您能否確認加密貨幣在第一季度是兩位數還是銷售額的 10% 或北部？

I won't give a specific number of how much or what percentage we are in terms of the revenue.

就收入而言，我不會給出具體數字或百分比。

But I'll say it's increasing.

但我會說它正在增加。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up on 22-nanometer ULP and 12-nanometer ULP.

只是對 22 納米 ULP 和 12 納米 ULP 的跟進。

Can you give us an update on timing and whether there has been any change in how you're thinking about the ramp of 22 and 12-nanometer ULP?

您能否向我們提供有關時間的最新信息，以及您對 22 納米和 12 納米 ULP 的升級的看法是否有任何變化？

Dr. Sun, will you repeat the question?

孫博士，您能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Well, Brett want us to give him an update on the development of 22-nanometer ULP and 12-nanometer ULP and asked if we have any changes in the plan, such as timing, schedule, market.

嗯，Brett 想讓我們向他介紹一下 22 納米 ULP 和 12 納米 ULP 的發展情況，並詢問我們的計劃是否有任何變化，例如時間、時間表、市場等。

No.

不。

We don't change the plan.

我們不會改變計劃。

It continues to be a very important technology to TSMC.

它仍然是台積電非常重要的技術。

And we can guarantee, we speed up the progress.

我們可以保證，我們會加快進度。

That's what we are doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

And because of where our customer is moving from 28 to 22 and from 16 to 12, so we had to speed it up of all the progress.

由於我們的客戶正在從 28 到 22 和從 16 到 12，所以我們必須加快所有進度。

Our next question today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

One is a follow-up clarification and one question.

一是後續澄清，一是提問。

Just going back to your comment regarding days of inventory that went up in Q1.

回到您對第一季度庫存天數增加的評論。

And I think Lora mentioned that they had to do with the 10-nanometer products, especially with the smartphone.

我認為 Lora 提到他們與 10 納米產品有關，尤其是智能手機。

Just want to make sure the weakness that you see from the smartphone market especially the premium products in the second quarter, that has to do with inventory digestion and perhaps as the new products ramp in the second half with the premium smartphone show a rebound in the second half.

只是想確保您從智能手機市場看到的疲軟，尤其是第二季度的高端產品，這與庫存消化有關，也許隨著下半年新產品的增加，高端智能手機顯示出反彈下半場。

So in other words, is Q2 kind of a digestion, inventory digestion period?

那麼換句話說，Q2是一種消化，庫存消化期嗎？

And I have a follow- up.

我有後續行動。

All right.

好的。

Mehdi, let me try to repeat your question and see if it's correct.

Mehdi，讓我試著重複你的問題，看看它是否正確。

You are asking about the increase in our days of inventory and then you're asking if the demand of the premium smartphone picks up in the second half of the year.

你問的是我們庫存天數的增加，然後你問的是高端智能手機的需求是否會在下半年回升。

Does that mean that we will begin to digest inventory in the second quarter?

這是否意味著我們將在第二季度開始消化庫存？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

The days of inventory for TSMC in second quarter was 63%.

台積電第二季度的庫存天數為 63%。

First quarter, 63 days.

第一季度，63 天。

I explained that because we are ramping down 10-nanometer capacity, and we will massively ramp up 7-nanometer capacity.

我解釋說，因為我們正在降低 10 納米的產能，我們將大規模提升 7 納米的產能。

So we are in a migration period.

所以我們正處於遷移期。

So we, on purposely, build more inventory on 10-nanometer so we can move the equipment to 7-nanometer, so we can save the CapEx.

所以我們故意在 10 納米上建立更多庫存，以便我們可以將設備轉移到 7 納米，這樣我們就可以節省資本支出。

That's the thing.

就是這樣。

You're asking whether our days of inventory will go down?

您是在問我們的庫存天數是否會減少？

Not necessarily because we are ramping our 7-nanometer, which has a much longer cycle time.

不一定是因為我們正在加速我們的 7 納米，它有更長的周期時間。

So I do not expect our days of inventory will go down or will change much in second half of the year.

所以我不認為我們的庫存天數會在下半年下降或變化很大。

Okay.

好的。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

And one other question I have regarding EUV and migration.

還有一個關於 EUV 和遷移的問題。

I understand that 7-nanometer and EUV insertion, that won't really have much of a change to the design rule like a place and route, but there would be a material change at 5-nanometer.

我知道 7 納米和 EUV 插入，不會像佈局和佈線那樣對設計規則有太大的改變，但在 5 納米處會有實質性的變化。

In that context, when would you be able to provide those design libraries developed for 5 to the design community so that they could better evaluate a custom benefit of EUV at 5?

在這種情況下，您何時能夠向設計社區提供為 5 開發的設計庫，以便他們能夠更好地評估 EUV 在 5 時的定制優勢？

Well, Mehdi, you are asking us if because we are using EUV, there would be some material changes at 7+ nanometer and therefore, do we provide design library or these other design ecosystem support for -- to incorporate those changes?

好吧，Mehdi，您問我們是否因為我們使用的是 EUV，所以在 7 納米以上會有一些材料變化，因此，我們是否提供設計庫或這些其他設計生態系統支持——以納入這些變化？

Yes.

是的。

We did those.

我們做了那些。

Yes.

是的。

And just to clarify, I think, some of those changes would impact 5-nanometer more so than 7-nanometer plus?

只是為了澄清一下，我認為，其中一些變化對 5 納米的影響會比 7 納米以上？

[While using] 7 to 7+?

[使用時] 7 到 7+？

Please repeat your question again.

請再次重複您的問題。

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

I think as you migrate from 7 to 7+ and with the inclusion of EUV, there may not be much change to design, especially with the back end of the design place and route.

我認為當您從 7 遷移到 7+ 並且包含 EUV 時，設計可能不會有太大變化，尤其是設計佈局和路線的後端。

But I do expect a material change at 5-nanometer.

但我確實預計 5 納米的材料會發生變化。

In that context, I think the design libraries developed for 5 would be very critical.

在這種情況下，我認為為 5 開發的設計庫將非常關鍵。

It helps design community to better evaluate costs and benefit.

它幫助設計社區更好地評估成本和收益。

And I want to understand -- I want to hear from management, when would those design libraries be provided so that we could further evaluate demand for 5-nanometer with increased EUV insertion?

我想了解——我想听聽管理層的意見，什麼時候提供這些設計庫，以便我們可以進一步評估對增加 EUV 插入的 5 納米的需求？

Is that clear?

明白了嗎？

So it is the design library with respect to N5, 5-nanometer, given 7+ and 7 are pretty much done.

所以它是關於 N5、5 納米的設計庫，因為 7+ 和 7 已經完成了。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So N5.

所以N5。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

N5 technology development is well on track.

N5 技術開發進展順利。

And some of our customers' function block already designing.

我們的一些客戶的功能塊已經在設計。

So we -- let me comment -- let me -- I captured the first question is N7 to N7+.

所以我們——讓我評論——讓我——我抓住了第一個問題是N7到N7+。

The design porting, we have demonstrated with several customers, showing that the porting is -- the work is relatively easy.

設計移植，我們和幾個客戶一起演示過，表明移植是——工作相對容易。

The only major difference is if you want to increase the density, you just change the standard cells which have a tighter density.

唯一的主要區別是如果你想增加密度，你只需改變密度更小的標准單元。

The rest is -- have -- we have porting algorithms and -- to support our N7 customers.

剩下的就是——有——我們有移植算法和——支持我們的 N7 客戶。

N5 is a new design.

N5是一個新的設計。

So we thus provide the design ecosystem stuff from early.

因此，我們從一開始就提供了設計生態系統的東西。

And today is -- we're on track.

今天是 - 我們正在走上正軌。

And we do support our customers' N5 design when they're called upon.

當客戶需要時，我們會支持他們的 N5 設計。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So does that mean that you have already finalized the number of layers that EUV is going to be inserted for?

那麼這是否意味著您已經最終確定了要插入 EUV 的層數？

Your question is that -- is EUV insertable on N7?

你的問題是——EUV 可以插入到 N7 上嗎？

No, no.

不，不。

I'm -- My question is if you already have provided cell libraries, does that imply that you have already finalized the lower count for 5-nanometer that would include EUV?

我是——我的問題是，如果您已經提供了單元庫，這是否意味著您已經確定了包含 EUV 的 5 納米的較低數量？

Oh, so you are asking us if we have finalized the number of layers that we will be using EUV at N5?

哦，所以你問我們是否已經確定了在 N5 使用 EUV 的層數？

Have we finalized that number?

我們最終確定了這個數字嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

It's already finalized.

它已經完成了。

Is that closer to 10?

是不是接近10？

We do not disclose that.

我們不會透露這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And we are coming back to the floor.

我們要回到地板上。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Mehdi.

謝謝，邁赫迪。

Coming back to the floor, the next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

回到地板上，下一個問題將來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is to follow on the CapEx rates for this year.

我的第一個問題是關註今年的資本支出率。

Lora already mentioned about the CapEx rates, half of that is driven by the -- what's that called -- by mask making because of the higher demand from customer design activities.

Lora 已經提到了資本支出率，其中一半是由於客戶設計活動的更高需求而由掩模製造驅動的。

So can you elaborate on that?

那你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Actually, we have seen increasingly a lot, big increase in customer tapeout requirement.

實際上，我們已經看到越來越多的客戶流片需求大幅增加。

And we found out that masking capacity is insufficient.

我們發現掩蔽能力不足。

And those tapeout in business is very good business for TSMC.

而那些流片業務對台積電來說是非常好的業務。

So in order to facilitate customer for their product launch, so we need to add masking capacity immediately.

所以為了方便客戶的產品發布，所以我們需要立即增加遮蔽能力。

So that's the half billion I was referring to.

這就是我所指的 5 億。

Sebastian, let me add some color on this.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我為此添加一些顏色。

Okay.

好的。

We do see increase of tapeouts.

我們確實看到了流片的增加。

And we do see it increase a lot from AI, networking areas and some are from the fabless company, but some of -- from the system startups and some from the -- even the cloud service providers.

我們確實看到它從人工智能、網絡領域增加了很多，有些來自無晶圓廠公司，但有些來自系統初創公司，有些來自甚至雲服務提供商。

So some -- in this area, the -- in AI area, we think we are casting a bigger net in accommodating more customers today.

因此，在這個領域，在人工智能領域，我們認為我們正在撒下更大的網來容納更多的客戶。

How would that turn into volume, we yet to be see.

這將如何變成音量，我們還有待觀察。

But we are very happy to see the increase of tapeout and participation of new product designs in more companies.

但我們很高興看到流片的增加和更多公司參與新產品設計。

I see.

我懂了。

Just a follow-up on that because last quarter, you offered the expanded 7-nanometer tapeout by the end of this year will be 50.

只是對此的跟進，因為上個季度，你們提供了到今年年底擴展的 7 納米流片將是 50 納米。

And this quarter, C.C. already mentioned again you were going to be 50.

而本季度，C.C.已經再次提到你將 50 歲。

So if we just -- judging from the number, it doesn't increase and -- but now, you are raising the mask making CapEx.

因此，如果我們只是 - 從數字來看，它並沒有增加 - 但現在，你正在提高製造資本支出的面具。

So does that mean that -- actually, the actual numbers internally, you look at, is actually increasing, real tapeouts.

那麼這是否意味著 - 實際上，您看到的內部實際數字實際上正在增加，真正的流片。

Yes.

是的。

Other nodes.

其他節點。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is that if I just do some calculation on the guidance revision for this year.

第二個問題是，如果我只是對今年的指導修訂進行一些計算。

Earlier, it was 10% to 15% and now it's about 10%.

早些時候，它是 10% 到 15%，現在大約是 10%。

So that probably -- if we use a midpoint, probably about close to USD 1 billion of revenue decline.

所以這可能 - 如果我們使用中點，可能接近 10 億美元的收入下降。

And remember, the last quarter, Chairman talked about the first half year-over-year is about slightly above 15%.

請記住，上個季度，董事長談到的上半年同比增長約略高於 15%。

And now if we bake in the new guidance for second quarter plus the first quarter we already know, is about 12%.

現在，如果我們在第二季度加上我們已經知道的第一季度的新指導，大約是 12%。

So that's about like USD 600 million fall in first half.

因此，這大約是上半年下降了 6 億美元。

So does that mean -- and I already had mentioned about the smartphone going to be weak, and -- but which means that there were probably another USD 400 million revision -- a downward revision in second half this year.

這是否意味著——我已經提到過智能手機將會疲軟，而且——但這意味著可能還有另外 4 億美元的修正——今年下半年向下修正。

So would that be mainly driven by smartphone again or the other applications?

那麼這將主要由智能手機或其他應用程序驅動嗎？

I think I just described it, is a continued weakness of the smartphone demand and the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency's mining, so we adjust that.

我想我剛才描述的，是智能手機需求的持續疲軟和加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性，所以我們對此進行了調整。

So just to follow on the uncertainty on cryptocurrency mining.

因此，僅關注加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性。

So can I assume that -- even though it's hard to predict, but can I assume that you're baking in a more conservative assumption right now for second half compared to...

所以我可以假設 - 即使很難預測，但我可以假設你現在在下半年的假設中比......

Yes.

是的。

The next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs' Donald Lu.

下一個問題將來自高盛的唐納德·盧。

First question is what is the new guidance now for 7-nanometer and the 10-nanometer as a percent of revenues by Q4 this year?

第一個問題是，到今年第四季度，7 納米和 10 納米佔收入的百分比是多少？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

The second question is going back to this more tapeout activities.

第二個問題是回到這個更多的流片活動。

I think in -- previously, when you move on to a new node, the tapeout activities has been decreasing.

我認為——以前，當您轉移到一個新節點時，流片活動一直在減少。

I mean, more markets consolidation, et cetera, if I'm correct.

我的意思是，如果我是正確的，更多的市場整合等等。

But why suddenly, you see there's more activities from different customers?

但為什麼突然間，您會看到來自不同客戶的更多活動？

Is there a reason for that?

這有什麼原因嗎？

Or is there going to be a new trend for the industry?

還是該行業會出現新趨勢？

Donald, your question regarding the revenue contribution from 7 and 10 in the fourth quarter.

唐納德，您關於第四季度 7 和 10 的收入貢獻的問題。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

The -- no, Q4 this year.

- 不，今年第四季度。

The last...

最後...

Oh, Q4 this year.

哦，今年第四季度。

Yes.

是的。

Forecast.

預報。

Q4 this year.

今年第四季度。

Okay.

好的。

7-nanometer.

7納米。

As C.C. mentioned, for the whole year will be about 10%.

作為 C.C.提到，全年將在10%左右。

But since we are ramping heavily is from third quarter through fourth quarter and we expect the 7-nanometer will contribute more than 20% in fourth quarter revenue.

但由於我們從第三季度到第四季度大幅增長，我們預計 7 納米將在第四季度的收入中貢獻超過 20%。

Meanwhile, we are ramping down 10-nanometer.

與此同時，我們正在縮減 10 納米。

10-nanometer contribution in first quarter was 19%, and we expect that number to be single digit in the fourth quarter this year.

第一季度 10 納米貢獻率為 19%，我們預計今年第四季度該數字將達到個位數。

Well, Donald, I think it's a new trend.

好吧，唐納德，我認為這是一種新趨勢。

I think we -- earlier, we see the customer consolidating.

我認為我們 - 早些時候，我們看到客戶正在整合。

But now, we see even smaller company doing the design and tapeouts.

但現在，我們看到更小的公司在做設計和流片。

And that I think -- and particularly in the AI and networking area.

我認為——尤其是在人工智能和網絡領域。

So I think the system architecture today is much freer, much more customized for each new application than before.

所以我認為今天的系統架構比以前更自由，為每個新應用程序定制的更多。

And therefore, the -- each system company even service provider are willing to participate in the silicon design in order to optimize their system performance or service quality.

因此，每個系統公司甚至服務提供商都願意參與芯片設計，以優化他們的系統性能或服務質量。

It -- sorry, just to follow up.

它 - 對不起，只是為了跟進。

Is that because the barriers to entry are lower?

是因為進入門檻低嗎？

Or is that those system companies and startups are getting -- have too much money?

或者是那些系統公司和初創公司正在得到 - 有太多的錢？

I think both.

我認為兩者兼而有之。

That barrier, definitely lower because the -- all the EDA tools.

這個障礙肯定更低，因為所有 EDA 工具。

And it's much more matured today.

今天它更加成熟。

And also, the venture-capital supply of money is definitely a -- in certain segments is increasing.

而且，風險資本的貨幣供應量肯定是——在某些領域正在增加。

And -- but mostly, I think the system spec to chip specification, that currently is up to the ingenuity of the system designer not just an off-the-shelf product -- existing products.

而且 - 但主要是，我認為系統規格到芯片規格，目前取決於系統設計人員的獨創性，而不僅僅是現成的產品 - 現有產品。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Just a couple of quick ones here.

這裡只有幾個快速的。

On 28-nanometer softness, you mentioned it was a lot of the crypto guys looking to accelerate to more advanced nodes.

關於 28 納米柔軟度，您提到很多加密貨幣人士都希望加速到更高級的節點。

I'm curious beyond crypto at 28-nanometer.

我對 28 納米的加密貨幣感到好奇。

Is it also broader-based weakness at 28-nanometer beyond crypto?

除了加密之外，它是否也是 28 納米的更廣泛的弱點？

We still have a -- you are talking about 20-nanometer?

我們還有——你說的是 20 納米？

28-nanometer.

28 納米。

You mentioned that being relatively softer...

您提到相對較軟...

Oh, 28.

哦，28歲。

Oh, let me give you some example.

哦，讓我給你舉個例子。

Actually, this year, we see the highest tapeout number from 28 in 28's history.

實際上，今年，我們看到了 28 歷史上 28 的最高流片數量。

This year our tapeout is still higher, okay?

今年我們的流片仍然更高，好嗎？

So that give you some color on -- as I say that some of the product moved to high-volume product.

所以這會給你一些顏色 - 正如我所說的一些產品轉移到大批量產品。

Most of them are mobile.

他們中的大多數是移動的。

But then all others like they move into this area.

但隨後所有其他人都喜歡他們進入這個領域。

So the tapeout number is still as higher as last year.

所以流片數量仍然和去年一樣高。

And last year is a highest number.

去年是最高的數字。

That's a 28.

那是28。

So other than cryptocurrency, there's a lot of thing.

所以除了加密貨幣之外，還有很多東西。

We're talking about automotive, IoT and some of the ISP, those kind of thing, moving.

我們談論的是汽車、物聯網和一些 ISP，諸如此類的東西，移動。

Understood.

明白了。

I just want to make sure the breadth was still there.

我只是想確保廣度仍然存在。

The other question I have is if you could talk a little bit about manufacturing cycle times going from 16 to 12 to 10 to 7. How long is this?

我的另一個問題是，您能否談談從 16 到 12 到 10 到 7 的製造週期時間。這有多長？

When do you need to be starting wafers now?

您現在什麼時候需要開始晶圓？

And I especially want you to talk about and relative to -- I know Elizabeth says we shouldn't pay attention to monthly sales, but you just did a 60% month-on-month.

我特別希望你談談和相關的——我知道伊麗莎白說我們不應該關注月度銷售額，但你只是做了 60% 的月環比。

And that's unprecedented in my model.

這在我的模型中是前所未有的。

So how are we to look at kind of the monthly volatilities as well as the lengthening manufacturing cycle times?

那麼我們如何看待每月的波動以及製造週期的延長呢？

We are improving our manufacturing cycle time from node to node.

我們正在改善從節點到節點的製造週期時間。

We continue to improve.

我們繼續改進。

So -- but yes, more layers in each technology node as they increase dramatically like from 60-some to 70-some to 80 days.

所以 - 但是，是的，每個技術節點中的層數更多，因為它們急劇增加，從 60 天到 70 天再到 80 天。

And for the cycle time, we -- all of that improved quite a bit.

對於週期時間，我們 - 所有這些都得到了很大改善。

But I won't give you the actual number.

但我不會給你實際的數字。

Steven, you're asking the month-to-month revenue?

史蒂文，你問的是月收入？

I'm just surprised with the volatility in the March monthly sales.

我只是對 3 月份月度銷售額的波動感到驚訝。

Obviously...

明顯地...

Okay.

好的。

I am like Elizabeth, don't pay too much attention to it.

我和伊麗莎白一樣，不要太在意。

It's -- assume it's based on customer requirement.

它是——假設它是基於客戶要求的。

So there's a seasonality, and it's node-to-node requirement.

所以有一個季節性，它是節點到節點的要求。

Different customers may be different.

不同的客戶可能會有所不同。

So it's very hard to predict monthly revenue.

所以很難預測月收入。

All right.

好的。

It's -- sorry, the next question will be coming from Nomura's Aaron Jeng.

抱歉，下一個問題將來自野村的 Aaron Jeng。

After the inventories discussions, I got one question which I didn't expect at the beginning of the call.

在庫存討論之後，我收到了一個在電話會議開始時沒想到的問題。

Can I say that the blended ROIC per tapeout of TSMC will be coming down in the future because of the new trends that more tapeouts from the small IC designers and from system companies?

我能說台積電每次流片的混合ROIC將來會因為小型IC設計人員和系統公司流片更多的新趨勢而下降嗎？

But is there -- they might not be able to generate peak revenue per project.

但是否存在——他們可能無法在每個項目中產生峰值收入。

So -- but this trend is new from my understanding.

所以——但根據我的理解，這種趨勢是新的。

It seems to be kind of a down trend versus what TSMC was seeing in the past cycle.

與台積電在過去的周期中看到的情況相比，這似乎是一種下降趨勢。

But don't get me wrong, TSMC is still outstanding.

但不要誤會，台積電還是很優秀的。

But just compared with the volumes sold in the past, the new trends seem to be unfavorable to probably anyone in the market...

但與過去的銷量相比，新趨勢似乎對市場上的任何人都不利……

Well, if you look at our EUVs and margin and that's the -- we welcome more tapeouts just over the mask making.

好吧，如果你看看我們的 EUV 和利潤，那就是——我們歡迎更多的流片只是在掩模製造上。

But of course, I think the trend we see it as more designer getting to the new product designs.

但是，當然，我認為我們認為這種趨勢是更多的設計師進入新產品設計。

Okay.

好的。

They are early entrepreneurs.

他們是早期的企業家。

That's how we grow our customer base back beginning.

這就是我們從一開始就擴大客戶群的方式。

If you look at the cryptocurrency designer, they are very smart people.

如果你看看加密貨幣設計師，他們是非常聰明的人。

And this -- the mining machine, they have a very intricated system designs.

而這——礦機，他們有一個非常複雜的系統設計。

They break all the barriers, pushing the envelopes.

他們打破所有障礙，挑戰極限。

And those designers will come into later on in -- today on cryptocurrency, later on in the AI or blockchain and so forth.

那些設計師稍後會進入——今天是加密貨幣，後來是人工智能或區塊鍊等等。

That is our ecosystem, part of our ecosystem.

那是我們的生態系統，是我們生態系統的一部分。

And we are happier to see our ecosystem growth to pave way the future product innovation.

我們更高興看到我們的生態系統增長為未來的產品創新鋪平道路。

Well understood.

非常明白。

One follow-up.

一個跟進。

Another inquiry to support my judgments that you're now increasing the high end of your CapEx per year to $12 billion versus in the past, you were -- which was USD 11 billion.

另一項支持我的判斷的調查是，您現在每年將資本支出的高端增加到 120 億美元，而過去是 110 億美元。

But your revenue target is going to grow up by 5% to 10%, which means that you are spending more for the same target.

但是您的收入目標將增長 5% 到 10%，這意味著您為相同的目標花費更多。

So that's also another angle to support my judgment from the call, so that's why I've got this thought.

所以這也是支持我從電話中判斷的另一個角度，所以這就是我有這個想法的原因。

The investment is for the -- yes.

投資是為了——是的。

The EUV investment is for the future, next technology beyond 3-nanometer.

EUV 投資是為了未來，超越 3 納米的下一個技術。

And mask making is for the purpose of what I said, is possible that the -- we don't see immediate return, but that is our long-term investment target purposes.

口罩製造是出於我所說的目的，有可能-我們看不到立即的回報，但這是我們的長期投資目標。

Next question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Gokul。

I had one question on AI, HPC, et cetera and the growth going forward.

我有一個關於 AI、HPC 等以及未來發展的問題。

I think C.C. mentioned that you were expecting 50% of that rate for accelerators in data centers going forward.

我認為C.C.提到您預計未來數據中心的加速器將達到該比率的 50%。

That's a pretty high number compared to probably single digit today or probably lower double digit.

與今天可能是個位數或可能較低的兩位數相比，這是一個相當高的數字。

So a couple of years back, you had given a guidance of 5% to 10% with half of the growth coming from mobile and half of the growth coming from HPC and other areas.

所以幾年前，你給出了 5% 到 10% 的指導，其中一半的增長來自移動，一半的增長來自 HPC 和其他領域。

Could you update the component of that guidance?

您能否更新該指南的組成部分？

Does it mean that now smartphone is probably not going to grow from here?

這是否意味著現在智能手機可能不會從這裡增長？

Is that how you think about it?

你是這麼想的嗎？

And almost all of the growth comes from new areas like HPC, IoT, automotive?

幾乎所有的增長都來自高性能計算、物聯網、汽車等新領域？

And given the very aggressive numbers that you have put out, some of your customers like Nvidia have put out as well a couple of weeks back, what is the tipping point that you need to see to be more confident on areas like HPC?

鑑於您發布的非常激進的數據，您的一些客戶（例如 Nvidia）幾週前也發布了，您需要看到什麼轉折點才能在 HPC 等領域更有信心？

Okay.

好的。

Mobile still is mostly important segment that we are in.

移動仍然是我們所處的最重要的部分。

However, as I had mentioned, the AI and 5G Communications that in future that's a -- this mega trend that makes the HPC is a very, very important.

然而，正如我所提到的，人工智能和 5G 通信在未來是一個 - 這個使 HPC 成為非常非常重要的大趨勢。

And so we see a stronger demand that will contribute to TSMC's revenue.

因此，我們看到更強勁的需求將有助於台積電的收入。

Exactly, what we can expect that in the future, I would say that they are getting more and more important and that higher than we thought last year, actually.

確切地說，我們可以期待在未來，我會說它們變得越來越重要，而且實際上比我們去年想像的要高。

You want to add something?

你想添加一些東西嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The -- you questioned -- yes.

你所質疑的——是的。

We -- earlier -- the crystal ball we saw before, the smartphone going to give us, in 5 years, going to give us 50% growth dollar.

我們 - 早些時候 - 我們之前看到的水晶球，智能手機將在 5 年內給我們帶來 50% 的增長美元。

Now it looks smaller, like 40%, a little bit more than 40%.

現在它看起來更小了，像 40%，比 40% 多一點。

But HPC used to be 25%.

但 HPC 曾經是 25%。

But it looks like it going to be close to 40%.

但看起來它會接近 40%。

So HPC seems stronger than we saw before and smartphone a little bit weaker than way before.

因此，HPC 似乎比我們以前看到的要強大，而智能手機比以前要弱一些。

In IoT and automotive, it's about the same.

在物聯網和汽車領域，情況大致相同。

But to be honest, this goal has a time and even in smartphone, we look at 5G transition, that will be another industry transition.

但老實說，這個目標是有時間的，甚至在智能手機上，我們看看 5G 轉型，那將是另一個行業轉型。

If you look at the 4G transition, it's -- the demand has changed the whole landscape.

如果你看看 4G 的過渡，那就是——需求改變了整個格局。

So -- but that's what we look at today.

所以 - 但這就是我們今天所看到的。

And we'll go along the -- along with this industry during the migration and update for you.

我們將在遷移和更新期間與該行業一起為您服務。

Yes.

是的。

If I could just add -- as -- put some more perspective on this.

如果我可以添加 - 作為 - 對此提出更多觀點。

A lot of new tapeouts increasing mask capacity feels like the beginning of another new product cycle, typically, I think.

我認為，許多增加掩模產能的新流片通常感覺像是另一個新產品週期的開始。

Could you compare how this looks like compared to, say, 10 years back at the beginning of your smartphone product cycle?

您能否將其與 10 年前智能手機產品週期開始時的情況進行比較？

Probably, a lot of your current big customers are very much smaller at that point in time asking for more tapeouts as well and mask capacity.

可能，您當前的許多大客戶在那個時候都非常小，他們還要求更多的流片和掩膜容量。

Could you compare how it feels like today versus 10 years back in the beginning of the smartphone cycle?

你能比較一下今天和 10 年前智能手機週期開始時的感覺嗎？

We don't know.

我們不知道。

We don't know.

我們不知道。

It's a -- just like smartphone, when the first smartphone came, we did not know.

這是一個——就像智能手機一樣，第一部智能手機什麼時候來的，我們不知道。

So it really depends on the usage model and application on those products.

所以這真的取決於這些產品的使用模型和應用。

But we just cast a wide net and make sure we support all the innovators.

但我們只是撒下一張大網，確保我們支持所有的創新者。

All right.

好的。

Questions would be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

問題將來自 Crédit Suisse、Randy Abrams。

One follow-up question on the gross margin.

關於毛利率的一個後續問題。

With the midpoint at 48% in second quarter, how should we think about second half where you normally have the peak season, you're also implying at least half-on-half growth.

第二季度的中點為 48%，我們應該如何考慮通常有旺季的下半年，你也暗示至少有一半的增長。

Is it still the target?

還是目標嗎？

I think in the past, you've said close to 50%.

我想在過去，你說過接近 50%。

Is that still kind of the range we'd get some leverage first half to second half?

這仍然是我們在上半年到下半年獲得一些槓桿的範圍嗎？

I think the foreign exchange rate if you compare with last year, it will be a hit for the whole year.

我認為如果與去年相比，外匯匯率將是全年的打擊。

That's number one.

那是第一名。

And the second half, we are expecting more 7-nanometer coming on the line, which will have 2 to 3 percentage point dilution to corporate margin.

下半年，我們預計會有更多的 7 納米產品上市，這將對企業利潤率造成 2 到 3 個百分點的稀釋。

So these 2 factor are negative.

所以這兩個因素是負面的。

So I think we -- you should not assume anything will be the same as 2017.

所以我認為我們 - 你不應該假設任何事情都會與 2017 年相同。

Okay.

好的。

And then one question on the tool reuse.

然後是關於工具重用的一個問題。

7+ has a lot of reuse.

7+有很多重用。

For 5-nanometer where it's a bigger change with EUV.

對於 5 納米，EUV 的變化更大。

Does that change the equation, that it's a different?

這是否改變了方程式，它是一個不同的？

Or do you think you can keep that same conversion down to 5?

或者您認為您可以將相同的轉換率降低到 5？

We're not seeing the -- every generation, new migration will be utilized more than 90% of the previous generation tool, so the convertibility is pretty high even for 5-nanometer.

我們沒有看到 - 每一代，新遷移將使用超過 90% 的上一代工具，因此即使對於 5 納米，可轉換性也相當高。

CL Securities' Sebastian has a follow-up.

CL Securities 的 Sebastian 有後續跟進。

Just one.

只有一個。

On the inventory, turnover days increased if you compare it on the YoY perspective, increased almost 20 days.

在庫存方面，如果從同比角度進行比較，周轉天數增加了近 20 天。

Lora already mentioned about this the -- some raw wafer inventory prebuild for the 7-nanometer.

Lora 已經提到了這一點——一些 7 納米的原始晶圓庫存預構建。

So I wondered how much of it is just prebuild for the 7-nanometer ramp?

所以我想知道其中有多少只是為 7 納米坡道預構建的？

Or how much of it is because the raw wafer is more expensive today so we want to buy more now?

或者有多少是因為今天的原始晶圓更貴了，所以我們現在想買更多？

Prebuild has higher weighting than the raw wafer.

Prebuild 比原始晶圓具有更高的權重。

Raw wafer will be a few days.

原始晶圓將是幾天。

The remaining are the prebuild and the complexity in technologies.

剩下的是預構建和技術的複雜性。

You're comparing to a long time ago, right?

你是在和很久以前比較，對吧？

You see 20 days difference there.

你看到那裡有 20 天的差異。

So does that mean that you don't need to buy then as many wafers in the following quarters?

那麼這是否意味著您不需要在接下來的幾個季度購買那麼多的晶圓？

I don't quite get your questions.

我不太明白你的問題。

Because you already prepared some of the raw wafer right now for second half ramp.

因為您現在已經為下半年的坡道準備了一些原始晶圓。

And does that mean that you don't need to buy as many as raw wafers in second half this year compared to first quarter.

這是否意味著與第一季度相比，今年下半年您不需要購買那麼多的原始晶圓。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes.

是的。

A follow-up question from SinoLink's Andrew.

SinoLink 的 Andrew 的後續問題。

My follow-up question.

我的後續問題。

First one is regarding CapEx to sales ratio.

第一個是關於資本支出與銷售額的比率。

I remember last time, Dr. Chang mentioned the long-term will stay as [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30%.

我記得上次常博士提到長期會保持在[25%]（電話後公司更正）到30%。

But for this year, we raised another -- so it's about 30% to 33%.

但今年，我們又籌集了一個資金——大約是 30% 到 33%。

And are we still staying this assumption for the next few years, [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30% CapEx to sales ratio?

在接下來的幾年裡，我們是否仍然保持這個假設，[25%]（在電話會議後由公司更正）到 30% 的資本支出與銷售額的比率？

Yes.

是的。

That's due to -- at 30% level, around 30%.

這是由於——在 30% 的水平上，大約 30%。

So we changed from [25%] (corrected by company after the call), 30% to 30% level?

所以我們從[25%]（在電話會議後由公司更正），30% 到 30% 的水平？

First, within 25% to 30% anyway, okay?

首先，無論如何，在 25% 到 30% 之內，好嗎？

This year, it will be higher, yes, for the reason I was just mentioning, slightly above 30%.

今年，它會更高，是的，因為我剛才提到的原因，略高於 30%。

And if you look at the couple in the years down the road will be around 30%.

如果你看看這對夫婦在未來幾年的比例將在 30% 左右。

Some year may be lower, slightly lower than 30%, some year at 30%.

有些年份可能會更低，略低於 30%，有些年份為 30%。

So more like a 25% to 30% range.

所以更像是 25% 到 30% 的範圍。

Yes.

是的。

That's still true.

這仍然是真的。

All right.

好的。

You have another question?

你還有問題嗎？

My last question is, are we really gaining back the customer we are losing on 14-nanometer and 10-nanometer for 7?

我的最後一個問題是，我們真的能贏回我們在 14 納米和 10 納米 7 上失去的客戶嗎？

I did not mention any customer name.

我沒有提到任何客戶的名字。

We are the only 7-nanometer provider.

我們是唯一的 7 納米供應商。

So you can imagine that -- the answer over your questions.

所以你可以想像——對你的問題的回答。

Well, I am just going to -- for the interest of time, only going to limit two questions.

好吧，我只是打算——為了時間的緣故，只限制兩個問題。

So one person each, okay?

所以每個人，好嗎？

Citi's Roland first and then Deutsche Bank's Michael.

先是花旗的羅蘭，然後是德意志銀行的邁克爾。

One question each.

每人一問。

For C.C., now you are ramping up 16-nanometer production in China.

對於 C.C.，現在你正在中國增加 16 納米的生產。

So what are you going to do if customer need to do the InFO or CoWoS packaging there?

那麼如果客戶需要在那裡進行 InFO 或 CoWoS 打包，您會怎麼做？

Are you going to build the InFO or CoWoS capacity there?

你打算在那裡建立 InFO 或 CoWoS 能力嗎？

Or are you going to logistically -- to ship back from Taiwan?

或者你打算從後勤上——從台灣運回來？

So this is about InFO and the CoWoS?

那麼這是關於 InFO 和 CoWoS 的嗎？

Well, that will depend on customers' demand and customers' need.

那麼，這將取決於客戶的需求和客戶的需求。

We always support them as much as possible if we can support locally, we'll do it.

我們總是盡可能地支持他們，如果我們可以在當地支持，我們會做到的。

But not today.

但不是今天。

But not today.

但不是今天。

Yes.

是的。

Today is not in our plan yet.

今天還沒有在我們的計劃中。

Okay.

好的。

So when?

那麼什麼時候呢？

When are you going to build a CoWoS or InFO?

您打算什麼時候建立 CoWoS 或 InFO？

Depend on customers' demand.

視客戶需求而定。

Michael?

邁克爾?

You mentioned the 7-nanometer will be very massive.

您提到 7 納米將非常龐大。

But will most of customers shift to 5-nanometer -- or they will skip 5-nanometer and shift to 3-nanometer directly?

但大多數客戶會轉向 5 納米——還是他們會跳過 5 納米並直接轉向 3 納米？

Your question is are those 7-nanometer...

你的問題是那些 7 納米...

Customer.

顧客。

Will shift to 5-nanometer or they will -- some customer will skip 5-nanometer.

將轉向 5 納米，或者他們會——一些客戶會跳過 5 納米。

We've developed that technology, working with the customer to meet their product design.

我們開發了這項技術，與客戶合作以滿足他們的產品設計。

They have product specs and we are products performance.

他們有產品規格，我們是產品性能。

So whether they moved to 5 or not depend on their products nature.

所以他們是否移動到 5 取決於他們的產品性質。

And so some of them, they definitely will move.

所以他們中的一些人，他們肯定會搬家。

Some of them probably will stay in 7, 7+.

他們中的一些人可能會留在7、7+。

So in the past, 20 and 10 seems to be small nodes, right?

所以在過去，20 和 10 似乎是小節點，對吧？

So will we see the 5-nanometer as a small node?

那麼我們會將 5 納米視為一個小節點嗎？

No.

不。

5-nanometer will be a very long node and useful and very cost effective.

5 納米將是一個非常長的節點，非常有用且非常具有成本效益。

And will start in 2020.

並將於 2020 年開始。

Okay.

好的。

With that, we will conclude our today's conference.

至此，我們將結束今天的會議。

Please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 3 hours from now.

請注意，從現在起 3 小時內將可以觀看會議的重播。

Transcript will become available 24 hours from now.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

Both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

兩者都可以通過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

So thank you for joining us today.

所以，感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。