台積電 ADR (TSM) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications, and your host for today.

(外語)歡迎參加台積電2018年第一季財報發表會及電話會議。我是台積電企業傳播資深總監伊莉莎白·孫，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. (Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this conference in English only.

今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。（操作員指示）由於本次會議將受到全球投資者的關注，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次會議。

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter, followed by our guidance for the second quarter. Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's co-CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the key messages. Then, TSMC's co-CEO, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長何麗華女士將總結我們第一季的營運情況，然後介紹我們對第二季的展望。隨後，何女士與台積電聯席執行長C.C.博士進行了會談。魏先生將共同提供關鍵資訊。隨後，台積電聯席執行長劉德華博士將主持問答環節，三位高階主管將解答您的問題。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's conference presentation.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。請下載與今天的會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to our CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想請我們的財務長 Lora Ho 女士總結營運情況並介紹本季的業績指引。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Can you all hear me okay? Well, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。你們聽得到我說話嗎？大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the first quarter highlights and followed by the second quarter guidance. In the first quarter, due to seasonality, our first quarter revenue in US dollars decreased 8.2% sequentially to USD 8.46 billion, which was at the middle of our guidance range. The NT dollars revenue declined 10.6%, reflecting 2.7% appreciation in NT dollar against U.S. dollar. Gross margin increased 0.3 percentage point sequentially to 50.3%, as our cost improvement efforts and inventory valuation benefit offset the lower-capacity utilization and unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

我的演講將從第一季的亮點開始，然後是第二季的指導。第一季度，由於季節性因素，我們第一季以美元計算的營收季減8.2%至84.6億美元，位於我們預期範圍的中間。新台幣營收下降10.6%，反映新台幣兌美元升值2.7%。毛利率環比增長 0.3 個百分點至 50.3%，因為我們的成本改進努力和庫存估價收益抵消了較低的產能利用率和不利的外匯匯率。

Total operating expense decreased by TWD 2.1 billion and represented 10.8% of revenue versus 10.4% in the prior quarter. Thus, operating margin slightly decreased 0.2 percentage point to 39.0%. Overall, our first quarter EPS reached TWD 3.46, and ROE was 23% for the quarter.

總營業費用減少新台幣 21 億元，佔營收的 10.8%，而上一季則為 10.4%。因此，營業利益率小幅下降0.2個百分點至39.0%。整體而言，我們第一季度每股收益達新台幣3.46元，本季股本回報率為23%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application. During the first quarter, Communication and Industrial/Standard decreased 19% and 4% from the prior quarter, respectively, while Computer and Consumer increased by 30% and 9%, respectively.

現在讓我們來看看按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。第一季度，通訊和工業/標準分別比上一季下降了 19% 和 4%，而電腦和消費分別增加了 30% 和 9%。

Now let's take a look at our revenue by technologies. 10-nanometer process technology contributed 19% of our total wafer revenue in the first quarter, the combined 16/20 contribution was 22% of total wafer revenue, 28-nanometer and below advanced technologies accounted for 61% of total wafer revenue.

現在讓我們來看看我們按技術劃分的收入。10奈米製程技術在第一季貢獻了我們總晶圓收入的19%，16/20奈米合計貢獻了總晶圓收入的22%，28奈米及以下先進技術佔總晶圓收入的61%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 684 billion, an increase of TWD 35 billion from last quarter. On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 16 billion. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 2 days to 42 days. Days of inventory increased 11 days to 63 days due to an increase of raw wafer and the 10-nanometer wafer prebuild before the capacity is converted to 7-nanometer.

繼續討論資產負債表。截至第一季末，我們的現金及有價證券總額為 6,840 億新台幣，較上一季增加 350 億新台幣。負債方面，流動負債減少160億新台幣。財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數增加2天至42天。由於產能轉換為 7 奈米之前原始晶圓和 10 奈米晶圓預製增加，庫存天數增加 11 天至 63 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and the CapEx. During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 161 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 72 billion in capital expenditures. So our free cash flow was TWD 89 billion. We also repaid TWD 17 billion of corporate bonds and the prepaid TWD 34 billion of corporate bonds and interest. As a result, our overall cash balance increased TWD 24 billion to reach TWD 578 billion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar term, our first quarter capital expenditure was $2.45 billion.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第一季度，我們從營運中產生了約 1,610 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 720 億新台幣的資本支出。因此我們的自由現金流為890億新台幣。並償還公司債170億元及預付公司債340億元及利息。因此，本季末我們的整體現金餘額增加了 240 億新台幣，達到 5,780 億新台幣。以美元計算，我們第一季的資本支出為 24.5 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let me turn on to the second quarter guidance. Based on current business outlook, we expect second quarter revenue to be between USD 7.8 billion and USD 7.9 billion, which is a 7% to 8% sequential decline, but a 11.2% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of my revenue guidance.

我已經完成了財務總結。現在讓我來談談第二季的指導。根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季營收將在 78 億美元至 79 億美元之間，季減 7% 至 8%，但年增 11.2%，符合我的營收預期中位數。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.20, our second quarter gross margin is expected to be between 47% and 49%. Our second quarter operating margin is expected to be between 35% and 37%. Also, in the second quarter, we will again need to accrue the 10% tax on the undistributed retained earnings. But due to higher accumulative translation loss as a result of NT dollar appreciation against U.S. dollars, which will reduce our retained earning tax. Therefore, our second quarter tax rate will be between 18% to 19%. The tax rate will then fall back to 10% to 11% level in the third and the fourth quarter, and a full year tax rate will be about 12%.

基於1美元兌29.20新台幣的匯率假設，我們第二季的毛利率預計在47%至49%之間。我們第二季的營業利潤率預計在35%至37%之間。此外，在第二季度，我們將再次需要對未分配保留收益提列 10% 的稅款。但由於新台幣兌美元升值，造成累計折算損失增加，減少我們的留存收益稅。因此，我們第二季的稅率將在18％至19％之間。第三、四季稅率將回落至10%至11%的水平，全年稅率將在12%左右。

This concludes my remarks, and I will now make comments on capital capacity and the profitability. I will start with CapEx and capacity. At our last conference, we stated our 2018 CapEx budget to be between USD 10.5 billion to USD 11 billion. We now see our CapEx to be between USD 11.5 billion and USD 12 billion. The increase is due to: number one, we plan to spend about $500 million more to increase our mask-making capacity to support our customers' higher tape-out activities; and to spend about $300 million as prepayment for our high-NA EUV tools.

我的發言就到此結束，以下我將對資本能力和獲利能力進行評論。我將從資本來源和產能開始。在我們上次會議上，我們表示 2018 年資本支出預算在 105 億美元至 110 億美元之間。我們現在預計我們的資本支出將在 115 億美元至 120 億美元之間。增加的原因如下：第一，我們計劃再投資約 5 億美元來提高我們的掩模製造能力，以支持客戶更高的流片活動；並花費約 3 億美元作為我們高 NA EUV 工具的預付款。

Going forward, we expect our annual CapEx in the next few years will be ranging between USD 10 billion and USD 12 billion. Now let me explain how we are able to support our 5% to 10% long-term growth with a similar level of annual CapEx as the follows. For the existing capacity, we are able to grow capacity through productivity improvement, that is, for the same tools, the output can increase every year through our engineering efforts and innovations. This way, without spending fresh CapEx, we are able to grow capacity to support growth. On average, we are able to grow our overall capacity by the mid-single digit each year through the productivity improvement. Our marketing strategy with respect to the existing capacities, which grow in productivity perpetually, is to seek enough demand to fill this growing capacity at all times. As for the new capacity which is mainly leading-age technologies, we are very careful in planning the right level of peak capacity, knowing that initial capacity we build will grow continuously to a larger size due to productivity improvement.

展望未來，我們預計未來幾年的年度資本支出將在 100 億美元至 120 億美元之間。現在讓我解釋一下我們如何能夠以類似的年度資本支出水準支持 5% 到 10% 的長期成長。對於現有的產能，我們能夠透過提高生產力來增加產能，也就是說，對於相同的工具，透過我們的工程努力和創新，產量每年都可以增加。這樣，無需花費新的資本支出，我們就能夠增加產能來支持成長。平均而言，透過提高生產力，我們每年能夠將整體產能提高中位數個位數。我們針對現有產能（其生產力不斷增長）的行銷策略是尋求足夠的需求來始終填補這一不斷增長的產能。對於主要採用領先時代技術的新產能，我們非常謹慎地規劃適當的峰值產能水平，因為我們知道，由於生產率的提高，我們建設的初始產能將不斷增長到更大的規模。

To summarize, through productivity improvement and careful planning of new capacity, we are able to support revenue growth of 5% to 10% with annual CapEx at a USD 10 billion to USD 12 billion level in the next few years.

總而言之，透過提高生產力和精心規劃新產能，我們能夠在未來幾年內支持 5% 至 10% 的收入成長，每年的資本支出達到 100 億美元至 120 億美元。

Now let me make a comment on profitability. TSMC's profitability is determined by the following factors: leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, capacity utilization, cost reduction, foreign exchange rate and technology mix.

現在讓我對盈利能力發表一下評論。台積電的獲利能力取決於以下因素：領先技術開發和提升、定價、產能利用率、成本降低、外匯匯率和技術組合。

Now I will go through the changes for our second quarter gross margin compared to second quarter '17 and first quarter '18, respectively. Compare second quarter '18 gross margin using the midpoint of the guidance I just mentioned, which will be 48%, compare that with second quarter '17 gross margin, which was 50.8%. The decline of 2.8 percentage points gross margin rate is explained by 1.3 percentage point negatively due to exchange rate. NT dollars has appreciated 3.6% from second quarter '17 to second quarter '18. In addition to that, there is a negative 1.5 percentage point due to unfavorable product mix and inventory valuation, which is resulting from a utilization change. If I compare second quarter '18 with first quarter '18, where our margin was 50.3% last quarter, the decline of 2.3 percentage point gross margin is explained mainly by the favorable 2 percentage point of inventory valuation that was embedded in the first quarter '18 gross margin, which I have explained in the last quarterly conference.

現在我將分別介紹我們第二季毛利率與 2017 年第二季和 2018 年第一季相比的變化。使用我剛才提到的指導中點（即 48%）來比較 2018 年第二季的毛利率，與 2017 年第二季的毛利率 50.8% 進行比較。毛利率下降2.8個百分點，其中匯率造成1.3個百分點的負面效應。新台幣從2017年第二季到2018年第二季升值了3.6%。除此之外，由於利用率變化導致產品組合和庫存估價不利，導致利潤下降 1.5 個百分點。如果我將 2018 年第二季與 2018 年第一季進行比較，上一季我們的利潤率為 50.3%，那麼 2.3 個百分點的毛利率下降主要是因為 2018 年第一季毛利率中包含了 2 個百分點的有利庫存估值，我在上次季度會議上已經解釋過這一點。

To conclude, our leadership in technology development and ramp-up remains solid. We continue to maintain our competitive price, and we are making good progress in cost reduction. We will continue to work on filling our capacity. I finished my remark.

總而言之，我們在技術開發和提升方面的領導地位依然穩固。我們繼續保持有競爭力的價格，並且在降低成本方面取得了良好的進展。我們將繼續努力填補我們的產能。我講完了。

Now let me turn the microphone to C.C. Wei for his comment.

現在讓我把麥克風轉向 C.C.魏先生的評論。

Thank you, Lora. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start with our near-term outlook. We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 248.1 billion or USD 8.46 billion in line with our guidance given 3 months ago. This result was mainly driven by a strong demand from high-performance computing such as cryptocurrency mining and increases from both automotive and IoT, but offset by seasonal decline in smartphones.

謝謝你，洛拉。女士們、先生們，午安。讓我先從我們的近期展望開始。我們第一季的營收為 2,481 億新台幣或 84.6 億美元，符合我們三個月前給予的預期。這一結果主要受到加密貨幣挖礦等高效能運算的強勁需求以及汽車和物聯網的成長推動，但被智慧型手機的季節性下滑所抵消。

Moving into second quarter this year. Our business is expected to be affected by continued softe demand from Smartphone segment. This decline is expected to be partially mitigated by the strengths in HPC. Our revenue in US dollar is likely to grow by only about a 10% over second quarter last year. We forecast our fabless DOI to stay slightly above seasonal level, but will track seasonal pattern. For the whole year of 2018, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, will grow by 5%, while foundry is expected to grow by about 8%. We forecast TSMC's 2018 revenue in US dollar will be about 10%, rather than the previously indicated 10% to 15% due to the Smartphone weakness and the uncertainty in cryptocurrency mining demand.

今年進入第二季。預計我們的業務將受到智慧型手機領域持續疲軟的需求的影響。預計高效能運算 (HPC) 的優勢將部分緩解這一下滑趨勢。我們的美元收入可能僅比去年第二季成長約 10%。我們預測無晶圓廠 DOI 將略高於季節性水平，但將追蹤季節性模式。就2018年全年而言，我們預測不包括記憶體的整體半導體市場將成長5％，而代工預計將成長約8％。我們預測台積電 2018 年美元收入佔比將達到 10% 左右，而非先前預測的 10% 至 15%，這主要源自於智慧型手機市場疲軟以及加密貨幣挖礦需求的不確定性。

Now let me talk about the long-term business growth driver. We are optimistic about the development of some of the industries' mega trends, particularly AI and 5G communication. We believe these 2 will help semiconductor to spread its pervasiveness to our daily lives. Both AI and 5G will create the new usage models and spur new waves of demand for both of the existing and emerging applications with the increasing silicon content. We expect TSMC to benefit from these industry mega trends in all 4 of our growth platforms. In mobile, silicon content of the smartphones will increase due to increasing functionality such as facial recognition and new usage such as AR, VR and 3D video. In HPC, we expect AI will boost the attach rate of accelerators used in data center from today's mid-teens level to about 50% by 2020. In automotive, the use of the new safety-related functionalities such as ADAS and eventually autonomous driving will drive the increasing silicon usage. In IoT, AI will proliferate into broad-based client devices across many applications, such as the smart voice assistance or electronics appliance management. These, again, will increase silicon content. We believe our 4 growth platform are well positioned to benefit from the longer-term mega trend of AI and 5G. Our leadership in advanced and specialty technologies as well as our advanced packaging solutions should enable us to capture the future growth opportunities well.

現在我來談談長期業務成長動力。我們對一些行業大趨勢的發展持樂觀態度，特別是人工智慧和5G通訊。我們相信這兩者將有助於半導體將其普及範圍擴展到我們的日常生活中。人工智慧和 5G 都將創造新的使用模式，並隨著矽含量的增加刺激現有和新興應用的新一波需求。我們預計台積電將在我們所有四個成長平台中受益於這些產業大趨勢。在行動領域，由於臉部辨識等功能的增加以及 AR、VR 和 3D 視訊等新用途，智慧型手機的矽含量將會增加。在 HPC 領域，我們預計到 2020 年，人工智慧將推動資料中心使用的加速器的配售率從目前的十幾歲水準提高到 50% 左右。在汽車領域，ADAS 等新的安全相關功能以及最終的自動駕駛的使用將推動矽片使用量的增加。在物聯網中，人工智慧將擴展到許多應用的廣泛客戶端設備，例如智慧語音助理或電子設備管理。這些又會增加矽的含量。我們相信，我們的四大成長平台將能夠從人工智慧和 5G 的長期大趨勢中受益。我們在先進和專業技術以及先進封裝解決方案方面的領導地位使我們能夠很好地抓住未來的成長機會。

Now let me talk about the N7 ramp-up. TSMC's 7-nanometer technology in terms of performance, power and area density as well as its schedule is leading the industry. So far, we have already fabbed out more than 18 customer products with good yield and performance. More than 50 products tape-outs has been planned by end of this year from applications across mobile, server CPU, network processor, gaming, GPU, PGA, cryptocurrency, automotive and AI. Our 7-nanometer is already in volume production.

現在讓我來談談 N7 的成長。台積電7奈米技術無論在性能、功率、面積密度或進度上都處於業界領先地位。到目前為止，我們已經為18多位客戶生產了具有良好良率和性能的產品。今年底，已計劃在行動、伺服器 CPU、網路處理器、遊戲、GPU、PGA、加密貨幣、汽車和人工智慧等領域推出 50 多種產品。我們的7奈米已經投入量產。

Now I'll talk about the N7+ and EUV. We believe we can extend the success of our 7-nanometer to its enhanced version N7+, which will have 20% better density and greater than 10% power reduction.

現在我來談談N7+和EUV。我們相信，我們可以將 7 奈米的成功延伸到其增強版本 N7+，其密度將提高 20%，功耗降低 10% 以上。

And N7+ will use a few EUV layers to replace immersion lithography process. As a result, fewer masking layer can be used. As the N7+ will use more than 90% of the same tools with the N7 and N10, where we have finetuned all the advanced equipment to their optimum condition during their ramp-up, we believe we can leverage our production learning to N7+ and enjoy the industry's best defect density among competitors of comparable technologies. Our N7+ silicon results to-date are very encouraging. Not only we have demonstrated equivalent or better performance in yield on both 256-megabit SRAM and on product-like test vehicle when compared to N7 baseline, we have also demonstrated a tighter distribution of electrical parameters in the layers where EUV is supplied. Since we maximize design rule compatibility between N7 and N7+, our customer can minimize the IP porting effect -- effort, I'm sorry. A few customers have already planned to tape out the N7+ in second half this year and more in the first half next year. Our N7+ volume production is planned in 2019, which remain unchanged. We have made ready multiple EUV scanners to support not only N7+ development, but also N5 development. At N5, with more extensive use of EUV, we have obtained consistent double-digit yield on 256-megabit SRAM as well as our larger test chip. Our silicon data has proved or the benefits we expect from process simplification with EUV. Besides the silicon development, EUV technology continues to mature toward a high volume production with the improving source power toward the 250-watts goal, which we expect to achieve in a few quarters. Good progress continues to be made in the EUV infrastructure in the last few months. They include photoresist, mask defect and yield, pellicle defects and transmission. We are confident that EUV can meet our goal of 2019 volume production for N7+ and 2020 volume production for N5.

而N7+則會採用少量EUV層來取代浸沒式微影製程。因此，可以使用更少的掩蔽層。由於 N7+ 將使用與 N7 和 N10 相同的 90% 以上的工具，並且我們在產能提升期間已將所有先進設備調整至最佳狀態，因此我們相信我們可以將我們的生產經驗運用到 N7+ 中，並在同類技術的競爭對手中享有業界最佳的缺陷密度。我們迄今為止的 N7+ 矽片結果非常令人鼓舞。與 N7 基線相比，我們不僅在 256 兆位元 SRAM 和類似產品的測試車輛上展示了同等或更好的產量性能，而且還展示了在提供 EUV 的層中更緊密的電氣參數分佈。由於我們最大限度地提高了 N7 和 N7+ 之間的設計規則相容性，我們的客戶可以最大限度地減少 IP 移植的影響——很抱歉，這需要付出努力。一些客戶已經計劃在今年下半年推出 N7+，並計劃在明年上半年推出更多產品。我們的N7+量產計畫在2019年，這個時間點維持不變。我們已經準備好多台 EUV 掃描儀，不僅支援 N7+ 開發，還支援 N5 開發。在 N5 中，隨著 EUV 的更廣泛使用，我們在 256 兆位元 SRAM 以及更大的測試晶片上獲得了一致的兩位數產量。我們的矽數據已經證明了我們期望從 EUV 製程簡化中獲得的好處。除了矽片的開發之外，EUV 技術也在不斷成熟，朝著大量生產的方向發展，光源功率也在不斷提高，我們預計在幾個季度內就能實現 250 瓦的目標。過去幾個月，EUV 基礎設施持續取得良好進展。它們包括光阻、掩模缺陷和產量、薄膜缺陷和透射。我們有信心 EUV 可以實現 2019 年 N7+ 量產和 2020 年 N5 量產的目標。

Now let me move to 16-FinFET and 12-FinFET. We introduced our 16-FinFET in 2015 and then 12FFC in 2017. Compared with the 16-nanometer, our 12-nanometer technology delivers better density, performance and more efficient power. With continual improvement in yield, customer are gradually moving from 16-nanometer to 12-nanometer.

現在讓我轉到 16-FinFET 和 12-FinFET。我們於 2015 年推出了 16-FinFET，並於 2017 年推出了 12FFC。與 16 奈米相比，我們的 12 奈米技術具有更好的密度、性能和更有效率的功率。隨著良率的不斷提高，客戶正逐步從16奈米轉向12奈米。

Among all the product tape-outs we received for this year on the 16/12 node, about 30% are for 12FFC. The application of 16/12 includes mobile, GPU, AI, networking FPGA, consumer application and automotive. Our capacity of 12/16 node is being fully loaded currently.

我們今年在 16/12 節點上收到的所有產品流片中，約有 30% 是針對 12FFC 的。16/12的應用包括行動、GPU、AI、網路FPGA、消費應用和汽車。我們的12/16節點容量目前已滿。

Now let me update on Nanjing fab. We expect to expand our business in China. Our Nanjing fab will enhance our support to local customers. Because of high demand on 16-nanometer, we had advanced the startup of Nanjing production. The production of our Nanjing plant starts this month. Both yield and performance are comparable to our 16-nanometer Taiwan fab.

現在讓我更新一下南京工廠的情況。我們希望擴大在中國的業務。我們的南京工廠將加強對本地客戶的支援。由於16奈米需求量大，我們提前啟動了南京生產。我們南京工廠本月開始生產。產量和性能都與我們的16奈米台灣晶圓廠相當。

Our advanced packaging -- now let me talk about the last item. Our advanced packaging technology, InFO and CoWoS, are becoming more important for our customer to reduce their product footprint, packaging thickness, while enhancing the performance. TSMC's InFO is in its third year of volume production. We have expanded its capability to cover large die size, so that we can integrate 2 or more chips together into 1 package. This is particularly useful for HPC product to obtain optimum cost performance benefit. And CoWoS, we have observed a growing number of tape-outs from HPC customers in graphic and networking segment. As a result, we are increasing our capacity now to support the demand. And thank you for your attention.

我們的先進包裝—現在讓我來談談最後一項。我們的先進封裝技術 InFO 和 CoWoS 對我們的客戶來說變得越來越重要，它們可以減少產品佔用空間、封裝厚度，同時提高效能。台積電的InFO量產已進入第三年。我們已經擴展了它的功能以覆蓋大尺寸晶片，這樣我們就可以將兩個或更多晶片整合到 1 個封裝中。這對於HPC產品獲得最佳性價比優勢尤其有用。在 CoWoS 上，我們觀察到圖形和網路領域的 HPC 客戶的流片數量不斷增加。因此，我們現在正在提高產能以滿足需求。感謝您的關注。

All right. This concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call. Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answer your question. (Operator Instructions) So Mark will host the Q&A session.

好的。我們的準備聲明到此結束。（操作員指示）問題將從現場和電話中回答。如果您想用中文提出問題，我會將其翻譯成英文，然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。（操作員指示）因此馬克將主持問答環節。

The first question will be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

I want to ask the first question about the demand and pricing environment. Just first on pricing. In first quarter, the shipments were down just 1% and revenue was down 8%. I'm curious if that's mainly the mix factor, because 10 fell off, or if there's any change in pricing maybe on some of the more mature nodes? And then if you could talk a bit more on the demand change versus what you've seen in January, how much from Smartphone? And then from the crypto, you talked about uncertainty, how much is coming from that market? And what are the uncertainty factors you're seeing on the crypto market?

我想問的第一個問題是關於需求和定價環境。首先討論定價。第一季度，出貨量僅下降1%，營收下降8%。我很好奇這是否主要是混合因素，因為 10 下降了，或者一些更成熟的節點的定價是否有任何變化？然後，如果您可以再多談談與一月份相比的需求變化，那麼智慧型手機的需求變化有多少？然後從加密貨幣來看，您談到了不確定性，該市場有多少不確定性？您在加密貨幣市場上看到哪些不確定因素？

Yes. Lora, please.

是的。請叫我洛拉。

Randy, your question is about the first quarter versus fourth quarter, quantity versus pricing. It is true that the first quarter pricing was affected by the product mix because we have very high utilization on the 16- and 10-nanometer, and that's the case.

蘭迪，你的問題是關於第一季與第四季、數量與價格的比較。確實，第一季的定價受到產品組合的影響，因為我們的 16 奈米和 10 奈米利用率非常高，事實就是如此。

I think Randy also has a part of the question about the changing our forecast compared to January.

我認為蘭迪也對我們的預測與一月相比的變化有疑問。

Okay. C.C., about the product mix?

好的。C.C.，關於產品組合？

The product mix, actually the first quarter, we just mentioned weakness of seasonality, actually. Let me say that's in Smartphones. All other segment actually continue to grow, okay, in the HPC, automotive, IoT. However, that our revenue, a lot of caution is around Smartphone. So that's why we have a mixed effect in the technology. Our smartphone use most leading-edge technology, and that's why a few percentage drop -- that's a big drop in the revenue.

實際上，第一季的產品組合，我們剛才提到了季節性的疲軟。我要說的是，這是在智慧型手機中。所有其他領域實際上都在繼續成長，例如高效能運算、汽車、物聯網。然而，我們的收入很大程度上是圍繞著智慧型手機的。這就是為什麼我們的技術會產生混合效應。我們的智慧型手機採用了最先進的技術，這就是為什麼收入會下降幾個百分點——這是一個很大的下降。

And the second part of that question and I have -- the second question was just about the crypto, if you could talk a bit more about the uncertainties? And if you've seen that sustained? Or you're seeing more uncertainties? So just the factors you're seeing in that market. And then the second question I have is on 7-nanometer plus. If you could discuss how you're seeing that ramp in terms of steepness at this stage relative to -- we've seen steep ramps of 10 and 16 before, if you're seeing steep ramp going into 7 plus? And also just how important it is to have a steep ramp? So in terms of -- how important it is to have that steep ramp just in terms of the learning as you try to bring customers onto EUV? So how important is it to have a big volume ramp on 7 plus?

而這個問題的第二部分，我已經──第二個問題只是關於加密，你能再多談談不確定性嗎？如果您發現這種情況持續存在？或者您看到了更多的不確定性？所以這只是您在該市場中看到的因素。我的第二個問題是關於 7 奈米以上的。如果您可以討論一下您在此階段看到的斜坡的陡度相對於——我們之前已經看到過 10 和 16 的陡坡，如果您看到陡坡進入 7 以上？那麼陡峭的坡道到底有多重要呢？那麼，當您嘗試讓客戶使用 EUV 時，從學習的角度來看，擁有如此陡峭的坡度有多重要？那麼，7 plus 的音量大幅提升到底有多重要呢？

7 plus ramp?

7 加坡道？

For your EUV development?

用於 EUV 開發？

Okay. Let me answer that. It's cryptocurrency. We see a very strong demand in the first quarter from cryptocurrency and -- in the first quarter. So during this second quarter, this is start of the second quarter, we see some weakness on 28-nanometer, but the rest of the technology is still very strong on cryptocurrency. Does your second question is on the 7 plus ramp?

好的。讓我來回答這個問題。它是加密貨幣。我們看到第一季加密貨幣的需求非常強勁。因此，在第二季度，也就是第二季度開始時，我們看到 28 奈米技術有些疲軟，但其餘技術在加密貨幣方面仍然非常強勁。你的第二個問題是關於 7 plus 坡道的嗎？

Yes. It's -- yes, 2 parts, it's how steep you're seeing? Or how much demand inflection are you seeing for 7 plus? And how important is it to TSMC to have a wide adoption in terms of the learning to move customers on 7 plus in terms of learning as you look at 5 and even against your competitors?

是的。是的，有 2 個部分，您看到的有多陡峭？或者您認為 7 plus 的需求變化有多大？當您觀察 5 甚至與競爭對手進行比較時，台積電在 7 Plus 上廣泛採用學習來吸引客戶有多重要？

7 plus, we -- I mentioned, we are using a few layers of EUV. And the EUV's progress is very well, so our customers start to adopt it. And how important? It's important. And we expect that N7+ will start to ramp up in the second half of next year quickly. Actually, it's ramping up quickly because of Smartphone business.

7 plus，我們－我提到過，我們正在使用幾層 EUV。而且EUV的進展非常好，所以我們的客戶開始採用它。有多重要？這很重要。我們預計 N7+ 將在明年下半年開始快速成長。實際上，由於智慧型手機業務，該公司的業務正在迅速成長。

I think 7 plus, we have EUV development, as C.C. just addressed, progress smoothly, and we have demonstrated 7 plus yield equivalent to 7. So the rest is volume. But I think the volume is -- we don't need a huge volume to prove EUV because all the development is in place, and the biggest volume ramp will be in N5, which is 2020, already in 2019 have some small volume. And N7+ will slightly prelude that but we don't need as bigger volume to enable the N5. No, we just need some volume to prove that. N7+ provide better density, better performance for our N7 customer following their N7 products, either they want to stay on N7, go to N7+ or they can from N7 go to N5, depend on their product needs.

我認為 7 plus，我們有 EUV 開發，就像 C.C.剛才提到，進展順利，而且我們已經證明了7+產量相當於7。所以剩下的就是產量。但我認為產量是——我們不需要巨大的產量來證明 EUV，因為所有的開發都已經到位，最大的產量成長將在 N5，也就是 2020 年，2019 年已經有一些小的產量。N7+ 會稍微提早一點，但我們不需要那麼大的音量來啟用 N5。不，我們只是需要一些數量來證明這一點。N7+ 為我們的 N7 客戶提供更好的密度、更好的性能，以便他們繼續使用 N7 產品，無論他們是想繼續使用 N7，還是轉到 N7+，或者他們可以從 N7 轉到 N5，這取決於他們的產品需求。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

First question is regarding your revised guidance for 2018. So can we say you will still have the same 7-nanometer sales ratio target this year, 10%? 10% gross?

第一個問題是關於您對 2018 年的修訂指導。那我們可以說您今年的 7 奈米銷售比例目標仍是 10% 嗎？10% 毛利？

Yes, around 10%.

是的，大約10%。

Around 10%.

大約10%。

Yes.

是的。

So it's still the same outlook as we -- as you expected 3 month ago?

那麼，前景仍然和我們一樣——正如您 3 個月前所預期的那樣？

It's -- as I said, Smartphone, it will be weak. So continue to be soft that we predict today. So it's -- they're all dealing -- the 7-nanometers, it's a little bit 1 point of.

正如我所說，智慧型手機將會很弱。因此，我們今天預測的情況將繼續疲軟。所以 — — 他們都在處理 — — 7 奈米，這只是 1 點。

Okay. So is that fair to say 7-nanometer sales portion maybe slightly below your previous target? Or you still think this should be close to 10%?

好的。那麼，可以這麼說，7 奈米的銷售份額可能略低於您之前的目標嗎？或者您仍然認為這個應該接近 10%？

Very close.

非常接近。

Okay. Second question is regarding your structural profitability. Do you think this year your structural profitability will improve or be the same as last year?

好的。第二個問題是關於你們的結構獲利能力。您認為今年你們的結構性獲利能力會提高嗎，還是與去年持平？

I have said several points that associated with structural profitability: technology, pricing, cost, capacity utilization, exchange rate and product mix. On this, there are certain things we cannot control. Number one, foreign exchange, we cannot control. Product mix always go with the customers' demand. So while we have seen some weakness in the first half for the mobile and there are certain technology of our existing customer capacity maybe not so full for the whole year and that will be one factor to our overall structural profitability. But I think our objective to maintain or improve structural profitability remain unchanged, but there are market situation and some uncertainty we have to be mindful.

我已經講了與結構性獲利能力有關的幾個點：技術、定價、成本、產能利用率、匯率和產品組合。在這方面，有些事情我們無法控制。第一，外匯是我們無法控制的。產品組合總是與顧客的需求一致。因此，雖然我們看到上半年行動業務存在一些疲軟，並且我們現有客戶容量的某些技術可能在全年不會那麼滿，但這將成為我們整體結構盈利能力的一個因素。但我認為我們維持或提高結構性獲利能力的目標保持不變，但我們必須注意市場狀況和一些不確定性。

So is that fair to say your biggest uncertainty will be FX rather than the other factors?

那麼，是否可以說，最大的不確定因素是外匯，而不是其他因素？

FX at least explain half of the deviation of our profitability. The other fair half, I think, it's mainly utilization, product mix and other factors.

外匯至少可以解釋我們獲利能力偏差的一半。我認為另一半主要是利用率、產品組合和其他因素。

So is that fair to say your 28-nanometer UTR slightly below your expectation? So that could lead to some margin downside?

那麼，可以這麼說，28 奈米 UTR 略低於您的預期嗎？那麼這會導致利潤率下降嗎？

It could.

有可能。

Next question will be coming from Sinolink's Andrew Lu.

下一個問題來自國金證券的 Andrew Lu。

(foreign language) Last time I came back, year 2010, Morris, the chairman give me 3 question to ask. Can I get this exception?

（外語）上次我回來，2010 年，董事長莫里斯給了我 3 個問題。我可以得到這個例外嗎？

You have 2.

你有 2 個。

Okay. The second quarter guidance or full year guidance, is this factoring the ZTE recently been banned by U.S. to sale the chip to ZTE? Is this factored in into your model? That's my first question.

好的。第二季指引或全年指引，是否考慮到中興通訊最近被美國禁止向其出售晶片？您的模型中是否考慮到了這一點？這是我的第一個問題。

The second half this year?

今年下半年？

Almost second quarter.

快到第二季了。

Second quarter.

第二季。

Second half also as well.

下半場也一樣。

No, we haven't. The news just -- we got the news just yesterday. But we think the effect is very, very minimal. Currently, we are still under study what is the impact of ZTE suppliers, but for first glance that we look at, we have a very wide customer portfolio. So ZTE depends what they're supplied from, and we have -- being everyone's foundry, we have very wide spread. So I think the impact will be softened much, much more. Much -- so we think that minimal impact on second quarter. You won't see the number change. You're going to see...

沒有。這個消息是我們昨天才剛得到的消息。但我們認為其效果非常非常小。目前，我們仍在研究中興通訊供應商的影響，但從我們第一眼看到的情況來看，我們擁有非常廣泛的客戶組合。因此，中興通訊的供貨來源取決於我們，作為每個人的代工廠，我們的業務範圍非常廣泛。所以我認為影響將會大大減輕。所以我們認為這對第二季的影響微乎其微。您不會看到數字發生變化。你會看到...

Which quarter, sorry?

抱歉，是哪個季度？

Second quarter you're talking about. Yes.

您談論的是第二季度。是的。

Okay. The second question I have -- okay, in terms of cash dividend, I estimate every year, we got additional $2 billion to $3 billion additional cash, even though we pay a lot of cash dividend, and are we going to give a much higher payout ratio compared to in the past few years? Because even this year, by factoring the new cash dividend, we still generate additional cash. So right now, I think it's over $20 billion on-hand cash already. So we are -- keep going out every year $2 billion to $3 billion. So that's my question.

好的。我的第二個問題是——好的，就現金股息而言，我估計每年我們都會獲得額外的 20 億至 30 億美元的現金，儘管我們支付了大量的現金股息，但與過去幾年相比，我們是否會提供更高的派息率？因為即使是今年，透過計算新的現金股息，我們仍然可以產生額外的現金。所以現在，我認為現金已經超過 200 億美元。所以我們每年都會支出 20 億到 30 億美元。這就是我的問題。

We have said many times our dividend policy to be sustainable and gradually increase dividend. We haven't really tied to a payout ratio per se, but we do look at free cash flow generation next 12 months, next 24 months. We use that as a basis to decide how much more dividend we are going to gradually increase. So it's $20 billion to date, and I have said, the CapEx will be $10 billion to $12 billion. We do have a capability in the future to increase a little bit more than we have been increasing in the past.

我們多次表示，我們的股利政策是可持續的，並逐步增加股利。我們實際上並沒有將派息率本身與股息掛鉤，但我們確實關注未來 12 個月、未來 24 個月的自由現金流產生。我們以此為基礎來決定逐步增加多少股利。所以到目前為止是 200 億美元，而且我已經說過，資本支出將達到 100 億至 120 億美元。我們未來確實有能力比過去再多一點。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question is, C.C., do you still hold a view that 10-nanometer total revenue will continue to grow this year?

第一個問題是，C.C.，您是否仍認為今年 10 奈米總收入將繼續成長？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Okay. So for 10-nanometer to continue to grow on top of this 10% year-on-year revenue growth and 7-nanometer around 10% growth from scratch. So both 7-nanometer and 10-nanometer probably total contribute more than 10% of the total growth this year. So does that mean that for 20-nanometer and 40-nanometer and above technology that total revenue is not going to grow? Is that right?

好的。因此，10 奈米的收入將繼續同比增長 10%，而 7 奈米的收入也將從零開始增長 10% 左右。因此，7 奈米和 10 奈米今年的總成長貢獻率可能超過 10%。那麼這是否意味著 20 奈米、40 奈米及以上技術的總收入不會成長？是嗎？

You are doing a very good mathematic calculation. I don't want to comment on that.

你正在進行一項非常好的數學計算。我不想對此發表評論。

Okay. So what's the reason for this 28-nanometer and the 40-nanometer and above does not grow? Does that because that end demand is soft? Or is this due to the capacity constraint? Or we are losing market share to...

好的。那麼這個28奈米以及40奈米以上沒有成長的原因是什麼呢？這是因為最終需求疲軟嗎？還是這是由於容量限制？或者我們正在失去市場份額......

I would say that a lot of 28-nanometers usage has been advancing to the more advanced node. So the utilization definitely is not what we expected last year. But all I can say is, we remain very competitive, and we are developing some derivative technology to serve all the customer. We move into the 22-nanometers to have our customer can get a very good cost performance benefit, and we are maintaining our market segment share.

我想說的是，很多 28 奈米技術的應用已經朝更先進的節點邁進。因此利用率肯定不如我們去年預期的。但我可以說的是，我們仍然非常有競爭力，我們正在開發一些衍生技術來服務所有客戶。我們進入 22 奈米領域是為了讓我們的客戶獲得非常好的成本效益，並且我們能夠保持我們的市場份額。

Okay. But last year actually, we also expanded about 15% to 20% of the capacity for 28-nanometer. So is there any problem to fulfill the capacity this year?

好的。但實際上，去年我們還擴大了 28 奈米產能約 15% 至 20%。那麼今年的產能去化還有問題嗎？

Last year, we increased the capacity because of a very high demand. And a lot of customer did not have enough wafer. That continue into this year's first quarter and probably half of this quarter. But at the end, they move forward faster than we thought. So that's why that we see a little bit weakness in the second half.

去年，由於需求量大，我們增加了產能。而且很多客戶沒有足夠的晶圓。這種狀況將持續到今年第一季，甚至可能持續到本季的一半。但最終，他們前進的速度比我們想像的還要快。這就是為什麼我們看到下半年有點疲軟。

Okay. So are we going to -- how are we going to utilize this new added capacity?

好的。那我們要如何利用這新增產能呢？

We have a lot of new application being developed, and trust me that one day, you will be fully loaded again. I hope, it's as quickly as possible, but technology product development takes time.

我們正在開發許多新的應用程序，相信我，有一天，您將再次滿載。我希望盡快，但技術產品開發需要時間。

Okay. For -- second question is for Nanjing fab, now we have already started mass production and we have 20,000 wafer per month capacity. So is there any plan to further expand the capacity in Nanjing fab?

好的。第二個問題是關於南京晶圓廠的，現在我們已經開始大規模生產，每月的晶圓產能為 20,000 片。那麼南京工廠還有進一步擴大產能的計畫嗎？

20,000 wafer per month is still our plan. We plan for this year all the way to next year. But we ramp up so quickly, actually it surprised us.

每月20,000片晶圓仍然是我們的計劃。我們從今年一直到明年都在做計劃。但我們發展得如此之快，實際上這讓我們感到驚訝。

Okay. For the further capacity expansion in Nanjing, are we going to buy the new equipment? Or are we going to continue allocating from Taiwan?

好的。為了南京進一步擴大產能，我們是否要購買新設備？或者我們要繼續從台灣分配？

We probably still at the first phase is still moving the equipment from Taiwan.

我們可能仍處於第一階段，仍在從台灣運送設備。

First phase means the 20,000? Is...

第一期就是2萬嗎？是...

Yes, majority of 20,000.

是的，20,000 人的大多數。

So that is ongoing? Or that is already done? Is 20,000 capacity moved...

那麼這仍在繼續嗎？或者這已經完成了？20,000 個容量是否已轉移？

Okay. Let me give you an idea. We are fully loaded, so I cannot move any equipment right now. Anything we move we will lose the capacity.

好的。讓我給你一個想法。我們已經滿載了，所以我現在無法移動任何設備。我們移動的任何東西都會失去其容量。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Will Lu.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Will Lu。

First question is for Lora. Lora talked about productivity improvements leading to mid-single-digit capacity increases. So 2-part question. One is, is that capacity increase pretty even across all the mature nodes? Or is it certain nodes that you're seeing bigger increase? Second part of the question is that mid-single digit going forward, what was that number in the past?

第一個問題是問 Lora 的。洛拉談到了生產率的提高導致產能以個位數中等幅度增長的情況。所以問題分為兩部分。一是，所有成熟節點的容量增加是否相當均勻？或者您看到某些節點的成長幅度更大？問題的第二部分是未來的中間個位數，過去這個數字是多少？

I didn't hear your second question, sorry.

抱歉，我沒有聽到你的第二個問題。

If you look at productivity improvements in the past, what has that number been?

如果你回顧過去的生產力改進，這個數字是多少？

Okay. Let me elaborate about productivity. As you can imagine, when the new technology just launch, in the first few years, you have very significant productivity improvement. And then when it gets mature, we have a stable productivity improvement. But when it gets very, very old, you can have limited productivity improvement. So the 5% I was just referring to is an average for the company. So -- but it's not the same for every technology. Your second question is compare with?

好的。讓我詳細闡述一下生產力。你可以想像，當新科技剛推出時，在最初幾年，你的生產力會得到非常顯著的提升。當它成熟時，我們的生產力就會穩定提高。但當它變得非常非常老舊時，生產力的提高就會受到限制。所以我剛才提到的 5% 是公司的平均值。所以——但每種技術都不一樣。你的第二個問題是與…相比？

Yes. That mid single digits per year, what has it been in the past?

是的。每年中等個位數，過去的情況如何？

Oh, very similar. We have been doing the mid single digit. Maybe some year, it's 1% more; some years, it's 1% less. But more or less, it's in the mid-single-digit range.

噢，非常相似。我們一直在做中等個位數。也許某一年，這個數字會增加 1%；有些年份甚至會少 1%。但或多或少，它處於中等個位數範圍內。

So I guess I'm not really sure why that impacts your CapEx plans then because it's always been like that, right?

所以我想我不太清楚為什麼這會影響你的資本支出計劃，因為情況一直都是這樣的，對嗎？

It does. Because another factor other than the productivity is, we also very carefully plan the peak capacity and watch very carefully for the capacity migration. C.C. was talking about the technology we'll use 90% commonality of tools. If you remember what I said a couple of years ago, the number was at 70%, 80%. So by doing that, it actually enhance the productivity improvement, especially for the leading-edge technology. That's one contribution to that.

確實如此。因為除了生產力之外的另一個因素是，我們也非常仔細地規劃尖峰容量，並非常仔細地關注容量遷移。C.C.在談論科技時我們將使用 90% 通用的工具。如果你還記得我幾年前說過的話，這個數字是 70%、80%。因此，這樣做實際上提高了生產力，特別是對於尖端技術而言。這是對此的一個貢獻。

The second question is on cryptocurrency. This is pretty new to many of us, and I feel like TSMC has been pretty conservative in terms of looking at it in the short term that's the right thing to do. But if you look at it for the next couple of years, 2019, 2020 as you think about your capacity planning, as you think about what customers to support, this is a market that is changing so fast. How do you think about it strategically?

第二個問題是關於加密貨幣的。對我們許多人來說，這都是相當新鮮的事情，我覺得台積電在短期內看待這件事情上一直相當保守。但如果你展望未來幾年，2019 年、2020 年，當你考慮你的產能規劃，當你考慮要支援哪些客戶時，你會發現這個市場變化非常快。您從戰略上如何看待這個問題？

Okay. We don't look at the cryptocurrency's market price. It can drop from USD 20,000 to -- down to right now USD 8,000. But it increased from $1,000 to $20,000. This kind of uncertainty that -- is what we are talking about. In terms of capacity support, unless it is sustainable demand, we will not increase the capacity because of this kind of uncertainty demand coming up, unless it's sustainable, in which I know that our customer is developing a lot of things on blockchain technology, AI. They are doing very well. And we expect that those cryptocurrency's minings, those same one slowly move to AI area.

好的。我們不關注加密貨幣的市場價格。它可以從 20,000 美元降至現在的 8,000 美元。但它從 1,000 美元增加到了 20,000 美元。我們正在談論的就是這種不確定性。在產能支援方面，除非是可持續的需求，否則我們不會增加產能，因為這種不確定性需求即將出現，除非它是可持續的，我知道我們的客戶正在區塊鏈技術、人工智慧方面開發很多東西。他們做得很好。我們預計這些加密貨幣的挖礦將慢慢轉移到人工智慧領域。

So do you have an estimate for -- if you look at the crypto plus blockchain, how fast is that you may going to grow next several years?

那麼，您是否有一個估計值——如果您看一下加密貨幣加上區塊鏈，它們可能會在未來幾年增長多快？

First, I always say uncertainty of cryptocurrency mining, so how can I put them together to give you a very good forecast? No, we don't.

首先，我總是說加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性，那麼我該如何將它們結合起來才能給你一個很好的預測呢？不，我們不知道。

Let me add. We increase our capacity in lieu of the invested capital ROIC, return on capitals. So if a demand is a spike demand, we will be very careful. But we support -- we try to support the -- our customer in every way. What cryptocurrency developing is that because of price sliding, their demand of high-end technologies increases. So the trail-end becoming not that productive for them. So this is the changing. And in one way, we try to support them with the more advanced technology as we -- quickly at time goes. And secondly, we support them on our available capacity.

讓我補充一下。我們透過增加產能來取代投資資本 ROIC，即資本報酬率。因此，如果需求是尖峰需求，我們會非常小心。但我們盡力以各種方式支持我們的客戶。加密貨幣的發展是由於價格的下滑，對高端技術的需求增加。因此最終的結果對他們來說並沒有那麼有成效。這就是改變。在某種程度上，隨著時間的推移，我們試圖用更先進的技術為他們提供支援。其次，我們會盡我們所能為他們提供支援。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

So I actually want to follow up Bill's question on your productivity and CapEx. So first of all, can you comment on recent chatters about the EUV throughput issue? And is that related to your more volatile CapEx range? This is my first question.

所以我實際上想跟進比爾關於你的生產力和資本支出的問題。那麼首先，您能否評論一下最近有關 EUV 吞吐量問題的討論？這與您更不穩定的資本支出範圍有關嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

I think Charlie is asking whether or not we can give additional color about the rumored EUV throughput problems and if that's the problem that causes our CapEx to be more volatile.

我認為查理問的是，我們是否可以對傳聞中的 EUV 吞吐量問題提供更多說明，以及這是否是導致我們的資本支出更加不穩定的問題。

The EUV progress. As we said, we move smoothly and we've got encouraging result. So that's why I say we are confident that will support the N7+ volume production and the N5 volume production in 2020. Now you're asking about why we increased the CapEx? Because we want to buy a very advanced EUV, too, I call high-NA tools. And that require that we put some deposit to book the machine slot. That's why we did it. And we are happy that the high-NA machine will be ready for us to use in the future that will further improve the efficiency and hopefully that increase the productivity, lower down the cost.

EUV進展。正如我們所說，我們的進展順利，並取得了令人鼓舞的成果。所以我說我們有信心支持 2020 年 N7+ 的量產和 N5 的量產。現在您問我們為什麼要增加資本支出？因為我們也想買非常先進的 EUV，所以我稱之為高 NA 工具。這就要求我們支付一些押金來預訂機器位置。這就是我們這麼做的原因。我們很高興高NA機器將在未來供我們使用，這將進一步提高效率，並有望提高生產率，降低成本。

Just make sure these are high numerical aperture in EUV. It's not that same EUV we're doing that. It is the next-generation EUV tools. We work with ASML to book the tool early. And those tool currently is targeting at technology beyond 3-nanometer.

只需確保這些在 EUV 中具有高數值孔徑即可。我們做的並不是同一種 EUV。它是下一代 EUV 工具。我們與 ASML 合作，提前預訂該工具。這些工具目前瞄準的是3奈米以外的技術。

Okay. Yes. Thanks for the clarification because investors in general are a little bit nervous about this EUV progress because it's associated to so-called Moore's Law progress, right? So that rumor is that the daily throughput is now around 1,000 wafers per day, right? So it's not that economical. And my worry is that whether they can affect your 7-nanometer-plus cost structure because you still need to use EUV, but the layer of the EUV usage could be fewer than your previous extensions. So anyway, that -- the least -- what market is chattering about. And my second part of the question is about the end markets. Okay. So it's a very difficult market to predict. We understand. But can you clarify the -- your comment on the weak smartphone demand. Because I think now China's smartphone, at least, you see some seasonality, right? So why that is not reflected to your revenue guidance upside? And according to our analysis, we think some of your customers shrink die size significantly this year. Is that affect the wafer demand for you at a 16-nanometer? This is my second question.

好的。是的。感謝您的澄清，因為投資者普遍對 EUV 進展感到有點緊張，因為它與所謂的摩爾定律進展有關，對嗎？那麼傳言是現在每天的產量大約是 1,000 片晶圓，對嗎？所以它不是那麼經濟。我擔心的是它們是否會影響你的 7 奈米以上的成本結構，因為你仍然需要使用 EUV，但 EUV 使用的層數可能比你以前的擴展要少。無論如何，這至少是市場所熱烈討論的話題。我的第二部分問題是關於終端市場。好的。因此，這個市場很難預測。我們明白。但是您能否澄清一下關於智慧型手機需求疲軟的評論。因為我認為現在中國的智慧型手機至少可以看到一些季節性，對嗎？那麼為什麼這沒有反映到您的收入預期呢？根據我們的分析，我們認為你們的一些客戶今年大幅縮小了晶片尺寸。這會影響 16 奈米晶圓的需求嗎？這是我的第二個問題。

The question is quite long, but let me give you some explanation. Yes. We do see China as a market start to pick up in the smartphone. But in TSMC, we -- in our smartphone market segment, some very high end smartphone is a little bit soft. So that's why we projected that is going to be continuous softness. Okay. It's not because of the China market that's -- that start to pick up slowly.

這個問題很長，但讓我給你一些解釋。是的。我們確實看到中國智慧型手機市場開始復甦。但在台積電，在我們的智慧型手機市場領域，一些非常高階的智慧型手機有點疲軟。這就是我們預測經濟將持續疲軟的原因。好的。這並不是因為中國市場開始緩慢回升。

Now we will like to go to the lines for questions. Operator, could you please get to the first caller on the line? Thank you.

現在我們開始回答大家的提問。接線生，您能接通第一位來電者嗎？謝謝。

Our first question today comes from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a follow-up question on crypto. For C.C. Wei, you mentioned it was a strong crypto, a strong Q1. Can you confirm if this is double-digit percent of sales or not? And then, just looking at your revised outlook for 2018, can you help us how we should think about crypto in second half? Do you expect crypto to be flat or up or down versus the first half in your revised outlook?

我剛剛有一個關於加密的後續問題。對於 C.C.魏，你提到這是一個強大的加密貨幣，一個強大的 Q1。你能確認這是否是兩位數的銷售百分比嗎？然後，僅從您對 2018 年的修訂展望來看，您能否幫助我們思考下半年的加密貨幣？在您修改後的展望中，您是否預期加密貨幣與上半年相比將持平、上漲或下跌？

All right. Brett, let me just repeat your question again. You were asking about the cryptocurrency and where C.C. said that demand was growing in the first quarter. So you are asking if first quarter demand accounted for 10% of the total first quarter revenue. And then second half cryptocurrency demand, will that be larger or smaller than the first half cryptocurrency demand. That's your question, right?

好的。布雷特，讓我再重複一次你的問題。您詢問的是加密貨幣以及 C.C.表示第一季需求正在成長。所以您問的是第一季的需求是否佔第一季總營收的 10%。那麼下半年的加密貨幣需求會比上半年的加密貨幣需求更大還是更小。這是你的問題，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

All right. Okay. Let me answer the question carefully because I already said the uncertainty of cryptocurrency's mining as we forecast in the future. But so far, we still think that cryptocurrency in the second half still have a higher demand than the first half. And they are using more advanced technologies. They're even moving to the 7-nanometer. That, I can share with you.

好的。好的。讓我仔細回答這個問題，因為我已經說過我們預測未來加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性。但到目前為止，我們仍然認為下半年加密貨幣的需求仍然高於上半年。而且他們正在使用更先進的技術。他們甚至正在轉向 7 奈米。那個，我可以跟你分享。

And can you confirm whether it was double digit or 10% of sales or north in Q1 for crypto?

您能否確認加密貨幣第一季的銷售額是兩位數還是 10% 還是北部？

I won't give a specific number of how much or what percentage we are in terms of the revenue. But I'll say it's increasing.

我不會給出我們收入的具體數字或百分比。但我會說它正在增加。

Okay. Okay. And just a follow-up on 22-nanometer ULP and 12-nanometer ULP. Can you give us an update on timing and whether there has been any change in how you're thinking about the ramp of 22 and 12-nanometer ULP?

好的。好的。這只是對 22 奈米 ULP 和 12 奈米 ULP 的後續報導。您能否向我們介紹一下時間安排的最新情況，以及您對 22 奈米和 12 奈米 ULP 升級的想法是否有任何變化？

Dr. Sun, will you repeat the question?

孫博士，您能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Well, Brett want us to give him an update on the development of 22-nanometer ULP and 12-nanometer ULP and asked if we have any changes in the plan, such as timing, schedule, market.

好吧，Brett 希望我們向他介紹 22 奈米 ULP 和 12 奈米 ULP 的開發進展，並詢問我們的計劃是否有任何變化，例如時間、進度、市場。

No. We don't change the plan. It continues to be a very important technology to TSMC. And we can guarantee, we speed up the progress. That's what we are doing. And because of where our customer is moving from 28 to 22 and from 16 to 12, so we had to speed it up of all the progress.

不。我們不會改變計劃。對於台積電來說，這仍然是一項非常重要的技術。我們可以保證，我們會加快進度。這就是我們正在做的事情。由於我們的客戶數量從 28 減少到 22，從 16 減少到 12，我們必須加快所有進度。

Our next question today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

One is a follow-up clarification and one question. Just going back to your comment regarding days of inventory that went up in Q1. And I think Lora mentioned that they had to do with the 10-nanometer products, especially with the smartphone. Just want to make sure the weakness that you see from the smartphone market especially the premium products in the second quarter, that has to do with inventory digestion and perhaps as the new products ramp in the second half with the premium smartphone show a rebound in the second half. So in other words, is Q2 kind of a digestion, inventory digestion period? And I have a follow- up.

一個是後續澄清，一個是問題。回到您關於第一季庫存天數增加的評論。我認為 Lora 提到它們與 10 奈米產品有關，尤其是智慧型手機。我只是想確認一下，智慧型手機市場，特別是第二季高階產品的疲軟，與庫存消化有關，或許隨著下半年新產品的推出，高階智慧型手機將在下半年反彈。換句話說，第二季是否是消化、庫存消化期？我還有一個後續問題。

All right. Mehdi, let me try to repeat your question and see if it's correct. You are asking about the increase in our days of inventory and then you're asking if the demand of the premium smartphone picks up in the second half of the year. Does that mean that we will begin to digest inventory in the second quarter?

好的。Mehdi，讓我試著重複一下你的問題，看看是否正確。您問的是我們的庫存天數增加的情況，然後您問的是高階智慧型手機的需求是否會在下半年回升。那是不是意味著第二季就要開始消化庫存了？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

The days of inventory for TSMC in second quarter was 63%. First quarter, 63 days. I explained that because we are ramping down 10-nanometer capacity, and we will massively ramp up 7-nanometer capacity. So we are in a migration period. So we, on purposely, build more inventory on 10-nanometer so we can move the equipment to 7-nanometer, so we can save the CapEx. That's the thing. You're asking whether our days of inventory will go down? Not necessarily because we are ramping our 7-nanometer, which has a much longer cycle time. So I do not expect our days of inventory will go down or will change much in second half of the year.

台積電第二季庫存天數為63%。第一季度，63天。我解釋說，因為我們正在降低 10 奈米的產能，並將大幅提高 7 奈米的產能。所以我們正處於遷移時期。因此，我們特意在 10 奈米上建立更多庫存，以便我們可以將設備轉移到 7 奈米，從而節省資本支出。就是這樣。您問的是我們的庫存天數是否會減少？不一定，因為我們正在推進 7 奈米工藝，它的周期時間要長得多。因此，我預計下半年我們的庫存天數不會下降或發生太大變化。

Okay. Very clear. And one other question I have regarding EUV and migration. I understand that 7-nanometer and EUV insertion, that won't really have much of a change to the design rule like a place and route, but there would be a material change at 5-nanometer. In that context, when would you be able to provide those design libraries developed for 5 to the design community so that they could better evaluate a custom benefit of EUV at 5?

好的。非常清楚。我還有一個關於 EUV 和遷移的問題。我理解 7 奈米和 EUV 插入實際上不會對佈局和佈線等設計規則產生太大的改變，但 5 奈米時材料會發生變化。在這種情況下，您何時能夠向設計社群提供為 5 開發的設計庫，以便他們能夠更好地評估 EUV 在 5 上的客製化優勢？

Well, Mehdi, you are asking us if because we are using EUV, there would be some material changes at 7+ nanometer and therefore, do we provide design library or these other design ecosystem support for -- to incorporate those changes?

好吧，Mehdi，您問我們是否因為我們使用 EUV，所以在 7+ 奈米時會發生一些材料變化，因此，我們是否提供設計庫或其他設計生態系統支援——以納入這些變化？

Yes. We did those.

是的。我們做到了。

Yes. And just to clarify, I think, some of those changes would impact 5-nanometer more so than 7-nanometer plus?

是的。需要澄清的是，我認為其中一些變化對 5 奈米的影響會比對 7 奈米以上的影響更大嗎？

[While using] 7 to 7+?

[使用時] 7 到 7+？

Please repeat your question again.

請再次重複您的問題。

Sure. Okay. I think as you migrate from 7 to 7+ and with the inclusion of EUV, there may not be much change to design, especially with the back end of the design place and route. But I do expect a material change at 5-nanometer. In that context, I think the design libraries developed for 5 would be very critical. It helps design community to better evaluate costs and benefit. And I want to understand -- I want to hear from management, when would those design libraries be provided so that we could further evaluate demand for 5-nanometer with increased EUV insertion? Is that clear?

當然。好的。我認為，當您從 7 遷移到 7+ 並包含 EUV 時，設計可能不會有太大變化，尤其是設計佈局和佈線的後端。但我確實預計 5 奈米將發生材料變化。在這種情況下，我認為為 5 開發的設計庫非常關鍵。它有助於設計社區更好地評估成本和收益。我想了解——我想聽聽管理層的意見，什麼時候提供這些設計庫，以便我們能夠進一步評估隨著 EUV 插入的增加對 5 奈米的需求？清楚了嗎？

So it is the design library with respect to N5, 5-nanometer, given 7+ and 7 are pretty much done.

因此，它是關於 N5、5 奈米的設計庫，因為 7+ 和 7 已經基本完成。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

So N5.

所以是 N5。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. N5 technology development is well on track. And some of our customers' function block already designing. So we -- let me comment -- let me -- I captured the first question is N7 to N7+. The design porting, we have demonstrated with several customers, showing that the porting is -- the work is relatively easy. The only major difference is if you want to increase the density, you just change the standard cells which have a tighter density. The rest is -- have -- we have porting algorithms and -- to support our N7 customers. N5 is a new design. So we thus provide the design ecosystem stuff from early. And today is -- we're on track. And we do support our customers' N5 design when they're called upon. Yes.

是的。N5技術發展進展順利。而我們的一些客戶的功能塊已經在設計中。所以我們 - 讓我評論一下 - 讓我 - 我捕獲的第一個問題是 N7 到 N7+。設計移植，我們已經與多個客戶進行了演示，結果表明移植工作相對容易。唯一的主要區別是，如果您想增加密度，只需更改密度更緊密的標準單元。其餘的是 - 我們有移植演算法並 - 來支援我們的 N7 客戶。N5是全新設計。因此，我們很早就開始提供設計生態系統。今天，我們的工作進展順利。當客戶需要時，我們確實會支援他們的 N5 設計。是的。

Okay. So does that mean that you have already finalized the number of layers that EUV is going to be inserted for?

好的。那麼這是否意味著您已經確定了要插入 EUV 的層數？

Your question is that -- is EUV insertable on N7?

您的問題是——EUV 可以在 N7 上插入嗎？

No, no. I'm -- My question is if you already have provided cell libraries, does that imply that you have already finalized the lower count for 5-nanometer that would include EUV?

不，不。我的問題是，如果您已經提供了單元庫，這是否意味著您已經確定了包含 EUV 的 5 奈米的較低數量？

Oh, so you are asking us if we have finalized the number of layers that we will be using EUV at N5? Have we finalized that number?

哦，所以您問我們是否已經確定了在 N5 上使用 EUV 的層數？我們最終確定了這個數字嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. It's already finalized.

是的。已經最終確定了。

Is that closer to 10?

那是不是更接近 10 呢？

We do not disclose that. Thank you. And we are coming back to the floor. Okay. Thanks, Mehdi. Coming back to the floor, the next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

我們不會透露這一點。謝謝。我們回到會場。好的。謝謝，Mehdi。回到現場，下一個問題來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is to follow on the CapEx rates for this year. Lora already mentioned about the CapEx rates, half of that is driven by the -- what's that called -- by mask making because of the higher demand from customer design activities. So can you elaborate on that?

我的第一個問題是追蹤今年的資本支出率。Lora 已經提到了資本支出率，其中一半是由所謂的掩模製作所驅動的，因為客戶設計活動的需求更高。能詳細說明一下嗎？

Okay. Actually, we have seen increasingly a lot, big increase in customer tapeout requirement. And we found out that masking capacity is insufficient. And those tapeout in business is very good business for TSMC. So in order to facilitate customer for their product launch, so we need to add masking capacity immediately. So that's the half billion I was referring to.

好的。實際上，我們已經看到客戶的流片需求大幅增加。我們發現掩蔽能力不足。這些流片業務對於台積電來說是非常好的業務。因此，為了方便客戶推出產品，我們需要立即增加遮蔽產能。這就是我所指的五億。

Sebastian, let me add some color on this. Okay. We do see increase of tapeouts. And we do see it increase a lot from AI, networking areas and some are from the fabless company, but some of -- from the system startups and some from the -- even the cloud service providers. So some -- in this area, the -- in AI area, we think we are casting a bigger net in accommodating more customers today. How would that turn into volume, we yet to be see. But we are very happy to see the increase of tapeout and participation of new product designs in more companies.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我對此添加一些色彩。好的。我們確實看到了流片數量的增加。我們確實看到它在人工智慧、網路領域成長了很多，有些來自無晶圓廠公司，有些來自系統新創公司，有些甚至來自雲端服務供應商。因此，在這個領域，在人工智慧領域，我們認為我們正在撒下更大的網來容納更多的客戶。這將如何轉化為數量，我們還有待觀察。但我們非常高興地看到越來越多的公司參與新產品設計的流片和參與度有所提高。

I see. Just a follow-up on that because last quarter, you offered the expanded 7-nanometer tapeout by the end of this year will be 50. And this quarter, C.C. already mentioned again you were going to be 50. So if we just -- judging from the number, it doesn't increase and -- but now, you are raising the mask making CapEx. So does that mean that -- actually, the actual numbers internally, you look at, is actually increasing, real tapeouts.

我懂了。我只是想跟進一下，因為上個季度，您曾表示，到今年年底，7 奈米的擴展產量將達到 50。本季度，C.C.已經再次提到你即將年滿 50 歲。因此，如果我們只是 — — 從數字來判斷，它並沒有增加 — — 但現在，你正在提高口罩製造資本支出。那麼這是否意味著——實際上，你看，內部的實際數字實際上正在增​​加，即真正的流片量。

Yes. Other nodes.

是的。其他節點。

Okay. Second question is that if I just do some calculation on the guidance revision for this year. Earlier, it was 10% to 15% and now it's about 10%. So that probably -- if we use a midpoint, probably about close to USD 1 billion of revenue decline. And remember, the last quarter, Chairman talked about the first half year-over-year is about slightly above 15%. And now if we bake in the new guidance for second quarter plus the first quarter we already know, is about 12%. So that's about like USD 600 million fall in first half. So does that mean -- and I already had mentioned about the smartphone going to be weak, and -- but which means that there were probably another USD 400 million revision -- a downward revision in second half this year. So would that be mainly driven by smartphone again or the other applications?

好的。第二個問題是，我是否可以對今年的指導修訂做一些計算。以前是10%到15%，現在是10%左右。因此，如果我們使用中間點，收入下降可能接近 10 億美元。請記住，上個季度，董事長談到上半年同比成長率約為 15% 以上。現在，如果我們將第二季的新指引加上我們已經知道的第一季的成長率計算在內，約為 12%。因此，上半年的損失約為 6 億美元。那麼這是否意味著——我已經提到過智慧型手機將會疲軟——但這意味著今年下半年可能還會有另一次 4 億美元的下調——下調幅度很大。那麼這是否主要還是由智慧型手機或其他應用程式推動的？

I think I just described it, is a continued weakness of the smartphone demand and the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency's mining, so we adjust that.

我想我剛剛描述了智慧型手機需求的持續疲軟以及加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性，所以我們對此進行了調整。

So just to follow on the uncertainty on cryptocurrency mining. So can I assume that -- even though it's hard to predict, but can I assume that you're baking in a more conservative assumption right now for second half compared to...

因此，我們只是關注加密貨幣挖礦的不確定性。那我可以假設──儘管這很難預測，但我可以假設你現在對下半年的假設比...更為保守嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs' Donald Lu.

下一個問題來自高盛的唐納德·陸。

First question is what is the new guidance now for 7-nanometer and the 10-nanometer as a percent of revenues by Q4 this year? That's my first question. The second question is going back to this more tapeout activities. I think in -- previously, when you move on to a new node, the tapeout activities has been decreasing. I mean, more markets consolidation, et cetera, if I'm correct. But why suddenly, you see there's more activities from different customers? Is there a reason for that? Or is there going to be a new trend for the industry?

第一個問題是，到今年第四季度，7 奈米和 10 奈米佔收入的百分比的新指導是多少？這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題是回到更多的流片活動。我認為——以前，當你轉到一個新的節點時，流片活動就會減少。我的意思是，如果我沒記錯的話，市場會進一步整合等等。但為什麼突然間，你發現不同客戶的活動越來越多了？這有什麼原因嗎？或者說這個行業是否會出現新的趨勢？

Donald, your question regarding the revenue contribution from 7 and 10 in the fourth quarter. Is that right?

唐納德，您的問題涉及第四季度 7 和 10 的收入貢獻。是嗎？

The -- no, Q4 this year. The last...

不，是今年第四季。最後...

Oh, Q4 this year.

哦，今年第四季。

Yes. Forecast.

是的。預報。

Q4 this year. Okay. 7-nanometer. As C.C. mentioned, for the whole year will be about 10%. But since we are ramping heavily is from third quarter through fourth quarter and we expect the 7-nanometer will contribute more than 20% in fourth quarter revenue. Meanwhile, we are ramping down 10-nanometer. 10-nanometer contribution in first quarter was 19%, and we expect that number to be single digit in the fourth quarter this year.

今年第四季。好的。7奈米。正如 C.C.提到，全年將達到10%左右。但由於我們從第三季到第四季大力發展，我們預計 7 奈米將為第四季的營收貢獻 20% 以上。同時，我們正在逐步降低 10 奈米製程。第一季 10 奈米的貢獻率為 19%，我們預計今年第四季這一數字將為個位數。

Well, Donald, I think it's a new trend. I think we -- earlier, we see the customer consolidating. But now, we see even smaller company doing the design and tapeouts. And that I think -- and particularly in the AI and networking area. So I think the system architecture today is much freer, much more customized for each new application than before. And therefore, the -- each system company even service provider are willing to participate in the silicon design in order to optimize their system performance or service quality.

嗯，唐納德，我認為這是一個新趨勢。我認為我們—早些時候，我們看到客戶正在整合。但現在，我們看到甚至更小的公司也在進行設計和流片。我認為——特別是在人工智慧和網路領域。所以我認為今天的系統架構比以前更加自由，對每個新應用程式的定製程度更高。因此，每個系統公司甚至服務供應商都願意參與矽片設計，以優化其係統效能或服務品質。

It -- sorry, just to follow up. Is that because the barriers to entry are lower? Or is that those system companies and startups are getting -- have too much money?

抱歉，只是想跟進一下。這是因為進入門檻較低嗎？還是那些系統公司和新創公司賺的錢太多了？

I think both. That barrier, definitely lower because the -- all the EDA tools. And it's much more matured today. And also, the venture-capital supply of money is definitely a -- in certain segments is increasing. And -- but mostly, I think the system spec to chip specification, that currently is up to the ingenuity of the system designer not just an off-the-shelf product -- existing products.

我認為兩者都有。由於所有的 EDA 工具，這個障礙肯定會降低。如今它已經更加成熟了。而且，在某些領域，創投資金供應肯定在增加。而且 — — 但最重要的是，我認為系統規格到晶片規格，目前取決於系統設計師的聰明才智，而不僅僅是現成的產品 — — 現有產品。

All right. Next question will be coming from HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

好的。下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的史蒂文‧佩拉約 (Steven Pelayo)。

Just a couple of quick ones here. On 28-nanometer softness, you mentioned it was a lot of the crypto guys looking to accelerate to more advanced nodes. I'm curious beyond crypto at 28-nanometer. Is it also broader-based weakness at 28-nanometer beyond crypto?

這裡僅簡單介紹幾個。關於 28 奈米的柔軟度，您提到許多加密人員都希望加速到更先進的節點。我對 28 奈米加密技術的未來充滿好奇。除了加密技術之外，這是否也是 28 奈米領域更廣泛的弱點？

We still have a -- you are talking about 20-nanometer?

我們還有一個——您說的是 20 奈米嗎？

28-nanometer. You mentioned that being relatively softer...

28奈米。您提到相對較軟…

Oh, 28. Oh, let me give you some example. Actually, this year, we see the highest tapeout number from 28 in 28's history. This year our tapeout is still higher, okay? So that give you some color on -- as I say that some of the product moved to high-volume product. Most of them are mobile. But then all others like they move into this area. So the tapeout number is still as higher as last year. And last year is a highest number. That's a 28. So other than cryptocurrency, there's a lot of thing. We're talking about automotive, IoT and some of the ISP, those kind of thing, moving.

哦，28歲。哦，讓我舉個例子給你聽。實際上，今年我們看到了 28 歷史上最高的流片數量。今年我們的流片率還是比較高的，好嗎？所以這給你一些顏色 - 正如我所說，一些產品轉向了大批量產品。其中大多數是移動的。但後來其他人都像他們一樣搬到了這個地區。因此流片數量仍然和去年一樣高。去年的數字是最高的。那是 28。除了加密貨幣之外，還有很多東西。我們正在談論汽車、物聯網和一些 ISP 等事物。

Understood. I just want to make sure the breadth was still there. The other question I have is if you could talk a little bit about manufacturing cycle times going from 16 to 12 to 10 to 7. How long is this? When do you need to be starting wafers now? And I especially want you to talk about and relative to -- I know Elizabeth says we shouldn't pay attention to monthly sales, but you just did a 60% month-on-month. And that's unprecedented in my model. So how are we to look at kind of the monthly volatilities as well as the lengthening manufacturing cycle times?

明白了。我只是想確保寬度仍然存在。我的另一個問題是，您能否談談製造週期時間從 16 到 12 到 10 再到 7。這有多長？現在什麼時候需要開始製作晶圓？我特別希望您談談相關內容——我知道伊麗莎白說我們不應該關注每月銷售額，但您剛剛實現了 60% 的環比增長。這在我的模型中是前所未見的。那麼，我們該如何看待月波動以及製造週期的延長呢？

We are improving our manufacturing cycle time from node to node. We continue to improve. So -- but yes, more layers in each technology node as they increase dramatically like from 60-some to 70-some to 80 days. And for the cycle time, we -- all of that improved quite a bit. But I won't give you the actual number.

我們正在改善從一個節點到另一個節點的製造週期時間。我們不斷進步。所以 —— 但是的，每個技術節點的層數都會增加，因為它們的時間會急劇增加，例如從 60 多天到 70 多天甚至 80 天。就週期時間而言，我們—所有這些都得到了相當大的改善。但我不會告訴你實際數字。

Steven, you're asking the month-to-month revenue?

史蒂文，你問的是月收入嗎？

I'm just surprised with the volatility in the March monthly sales. Obviously...

我只是對三月月銷售額的波動感到驚訝。明顯地...

Okay. I am like Elizabeth, don't pay too much attention to it. It's -- assume it's based on customer requirement. So there's a seasonality, and it's node-to-node requirement. Different customers may be different. So it's very hard to predict monthly revenue.

好的。我就像伊麗莎白一樣，不要太關注它。假設它是基於客戶要求的。因此存在季節性，並且是節點到節點的要求。不同的客戶可能有所不同。因此很難預測每個月的收入。

All right. It's -- sorry, the next question will be coming from Nomura's Aaron Jeng.

好的。抱歉，下一個問題來自野村證券的 Aaron Jeng。

After the inventories discussions, I got one question which I didn't expect at the beginning of the call. Can I say that the blended ROIC per tapeout of TSMC will be coming down in the future because of the new trends that more tapeouts from the small IC designers and from system companies? But is there -- they might not be able to generate peak revenue per project. So -- but this trend is new from my understanding. It seems to be kind of a down trend versus what TSMC was seeing in the past cycle. But don't get me wrong, TSMC is still outstanding. But just compared with the volumes sold in the past, the new trends seem to be unfavorable to probably anyone in the market...

在討論完庫存之後，我在通話開始時遇到了一個意想不到的問題。我是否可以說，由於小型 IC 設計公司和系統公司流片數量增加的新趨勢，台積電每流片的混合 ROIC 未來將會下降？但是，他們可能無法在每個項目上創造高峰收入。所以——但據我所知，這種趨勢是新的。與台積電在過去一個週期所經歷的情況相比，這似乎是一種下降趨勢。但請不要誤會，台積電仍然表現出色。但僅與過去的銷售量相比，新的趨勢似乎對市場上的任何人來說都不利…

Well, if you look at our EUVs and margin and that's the -- we welcome more tapeouts just over the mask making. But of course, I think the trend we see it as more designer getting to the new product designs. Okay. They are early entrepreneurs. That's how we grow our customer base back beginning. If you look at the cryptocurrency designer, they are very smart people. And this -- the mining machine, they have a very intricated system designs. They break all the barriers, pushing the envelopes. And those designers will come into later on in -- today on cryptocurrency, later on in the AI or blockchain and so forth. That is our ecosystem, part of our ecosystem. And we are happier to see our ecosystem growth to pave way the future product innovation.

好吧，如果你看看我們的 EUV 和利潤率，那就是 - 我們歡迎更多的掩模製作流片。但當然，我認為我們看到的趨勢是更多的設計師開始進行新產品設計。好的。他們是早期的企業家。這就是我們最初擴大客戶群的方式。如果你看看加密貨幣設計師，你會發現他們是非常聰明的人。而且這個採礦機的系統設計非常複雜。他們打破一切障礙，不斷挑戰極限。這些設計師稍後會涉足加密貨幣領域，稍後還會涉足人工智慧或區塊鏈等領域。那是我們的生態系統，也是我們生態系統的一部分。我們更高興地看到我們的生態系統的發展為未來的產品創新鋪平了道路。

Well understood. One follow-up. Another inquiry to support my judgments that you're now increasing the high end of your CapEx per year to $12 billion versus in the past, you were -- which was USD 11 billion. But your revenue target is going to grow up by 5% to 10%, which means that you are spending more for the same target. So that's also another angle to support my judgment from the call, so that's why I've got this thought.

很好理解。一次後續行動。另一項調查支持了我的判斷，即您現在每年的資本支出上限增加到 120 億美元，而過去是 110 億美元。但你的收入目標將成長5%到10%，這意味著你要為同一個目標花費更多。所以這也是從另一個角度來支持我的判斷，這就是我有這個想法的原因。

The investment is for the -- yes. The EUV investment is for the future, next technology beyond 3-nanometer. And mask making is for the purpose of what I said, is possible that the -- we don't see immediate return, but that is our long-term investment target purposes.

這項投資是為了——是的。EUV 投資是為了未來，為了 3 奈米以後的下一代技術。而口罩製造的目的就是我所說的，有可能－我們不會看到立即的回報，但這是我們的長期投資目標。

Next question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul。

I had one question on AI, HPC, et cetera and the growth going forward. I think C.C. mentioned that you were expecting 50% of that rate for accelerators in data centers going forward. That's a pretty high number compared to probably single digit today or probably lower double digit. So a couple of years back, you had given a guidance of 5% to 10% with half of the growth coming from mobile and half of the growth coming from HPC and other areas. Could you update the component of that guidance? Does it mean that now smartphone is probably not going to grow from here? Is that how you think about it? And almost all of the growth comes from new areas like HPC, IoT, automotive? And given the very aggressive numbers that you have put out, some of your customers like Nvidia have put out as well a couple of weeks back, what is the tipping point that you need to see to be more confident on areas like HPC?

我有一個關於人工智慧、高效能運算等以及未來發展的問題。我認為 C.C.您提到，您預計未來資料中心加速器的速率將達到該值的 50%。與今天的個位數或兩位數以下相比，這是一個相當高的數字。幾年前，您曾給出 5% 到 10% 的預測，其中一半的成長來自於行動領域，另一半的成長來自 HPC 和其他領域。您能更新該指南的部分內容嗎？這是否意味著現在的智慧型手機可能不會再有成長？您是這麼想的嗎？幾乎所有的成長都來自 HPC、物聯網、汽車等新領域？鑑於您公佈的非常積極的數據，您的一些客戶（例如 Nvidia）也在幾週前公佈了這些數據，您需要看到什麼轉折點才能對 HPC 等領域更有信心？

Okay. Mobile still is mostly important segment that we are in. However, as I had mentioned, the AI and 5G Communications that in future that's a -- this mega trend that makes the HPC is a very, very important. And so we see a stronger demand that will contribute to TSMC's revenue. Exactly, what we can expect that in the future, I would say that they are getting more and more important and that higher than we thought last year, actually. You want to add something?

好的。移動仍然是我們所處的最重要領域。然而，正如我所提到的，未來的人工智慧和 5G 通訊是一個巨大的趨勢，這使得 HPC 變得非常非常重要。因此，我們看到更強勁的需求，這將為台積電的收入做出貢獻。確實，我們可以預期，在未來，它們會變得越來越重要，而且實際上比我們去年想像的還要高。您想添加一些東西嗎？

Yes. The -- you questioned -- yes. We -- earlier -- the crystal ball we saw before, the smartphone going to give us, in 5 years, going to give us 50% growth dollar. Now it looks smaller, like 40%, a little bit more than 40%. But HPC used to be 25%. But it looks like it going to be close to 40%. So HPC seems stronger than we saw before and smartphone a little bit weaker than way before. In IoT and automotive, it's about the same. But to be honest, this goal has a time and even in smartphone, we look at 5G transition, that will be another industry transition. If you look at the 4G transition, it's -- the demand has changed the whole landscape. So -- but that's what we look at today. And we'll go along the -- along with this industry during the migration and update for you. Yes.

是的。您所質疑的是—是的。我們——之前——透過我們之前看到的水晶球，智慧型手機將在 5 年內為我們帶來 50% 的成長。現在看起來小了一點，像是40%，或是40%多一點。但HPC曾經佔25%。但看起來它將接近40%。因此，HPC 似乎比我們以前看到的要強大，而智慧型手機則比以前弱一些。在物聯網和汽車領域，情況大致相同。但說實話，這個目標需要一個時間，即使在智慧型手機領域，我們看看5G轉型，那將是另一個產業轉型。如果你看一下 4G 轉型，你會發現需求已經改變了整個格局。所以——這就是我們今天要討論的內容。我們將在遷移過程中伴隨這個行業並為您提供更新。是的。

If I could just add -- as -- put some more perspective on this. A lot of new tapeouts increasing mask capacity feels like the beginning of another new product cycle, typically, I think. Could you compare how this looks like compared to, say, 10 years back at the beginning of your smartphone product cycle? Probably, a lot of your current big customers are very much smaller at that point in time asking for more tapeouts as well and mask capacity. Could you compare how it feels like today versus 10 years back in the beginning of the smartphone cycle?

如果我可以補充一點——就此提出更多的看法。我認為，許多新的流片增加光罩容量感覺就像另一個新產品週期的開始。您能否將目前的情況與 10 年前智慧型手機產品週期開始時的情況進行比較？可能，您目前的許多大客戶當時規模都很小，他們也要求更多的流片和掩模產能。您能否比較一下今天與十年前智慧型手機週期開始時的感覺？

We don't know. We don't know. It's a -- just like smartphone, when the first smartphone came, we did not know. So it really depends on the usage model and application on those products. But we just cast a wide net and make sure we support all the innovators.

我們不知道。我們不知道。就像智慧型手機一樣，當第一部智慧型手機問世時，我們並不知道。所以這其實取決於這些產品的使用模式和應用。但我們只是廣撒網，確保支持所有創新者。

All right. Questions would be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的。問題將由瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams) 提出。

One follow-up question on the gross margin. With the midpoint at 48% in second quarter, how should we think about second half where you normally have the peak season, you're also implying at least half-on-half growth. Is it still the target? I think in the past, you've said close to 50%. Is that still kind of the range we'd get some leverage first half to second half?

關於毛利率的一個後續問題。第二季的中位數為 48%，那麼我們該如何看待下半年呢？下半年通常是旺季，您也暗示至少會出現一半的成長。這還是目標嗎？我認為過去您曾說過接近 50%。這是否仍然是我們在上半年到下半年獲得一些影響力的範圍？

I think the foreign exchange rate if you compare with last year, it will be a hit for the whole year. That's number one. And the second half, we are expecting more 7-nanometer coming on the line, which will have 2 to 3 percentage point dilution to corporate margin. So these 2 factor are negative. So I think we -- you should not assume anything will be the same as 2017.

我認為，如果與去年相比，今年的匯率將會受到打擊。這是第一點。下半年，我們預計會有更多 7 奈米技術投入生產，這將使企業利潤率下降 2 至 3 個百分點。所以這兩個因素都是負面的。所以我認為我們——你不應該假設任何事情都會與 2017 年相同。

Okay. And then one question on the tool reuse. 7+ has a lot of reuse. For 5-nanometer where it's a bigger change with EUV. Does that change the equation, that it's a different? Or do you think you can keep that same conversion down to 5?

好的。然後是關於工具重用的一個問題。7+ 具有大量可重複使用性。對於 5 奈米來說，EUV 帶來的變化更大。這是否會改變等式，使它變得不同？或者您認為您可以將相同的轉換次數保持在 5 次以下？

We're not seeing the -- every generation, new migration will be utilized more than 90% of the previous generation tool, so the convertibility is pretty high even for 5-nanometer.

我們沒有看到——每一代，新的遷移都會利用上一代工具的 90% 以上，因此即使對於 5 奈米，可轉換性也相當高。

CL Securities' Sebastian has a follow-up.

CL Securities 的 Sebastian 有後續報導。

Just one. On the inventory, turnover days increased if you compare it on the YoY perspective, increased almost 20 days. Lora already mentioned about this the -- some raw wafer inventory prebuild for the 7-nanometer. So I wondered how much of it is just prebuild for the 7-nanometer ramp? Or how much of it is because the raw wafer is more expensive today so we want to buy more now?

只有一個。庫存方面，如果與去年同期相比，週轉天數增加了近20天。Lora 已經提到了這一點——一些為 7 奈米預先建造的原始晶圓庫存。所以我想知道其中有多少只是為了 7 奈米坡道而預先建造的？或者有多少是因為今天原始晶圓的價格比較貴，所以我們現在想買更多？

Prebuild has higher weighting than the raw wafer. Raw wafer will be a few days. The remaining are the prebuild and the complexity in technologies. You're comparing to a long time ago, right? You see 20 days difference there.

預製晶圓的權重高於原始晶圓。生晶圓要過幾天。剩下的就是預先建置和技術的複雜性。您是在與很久以前進行比較，對嗎？您會看到有 20 天的差異。

So does that mean that you don't need to buy then as many wafers in the following quarters?

那麼這是否意味著您不需要在接下來的幾季購買那麼多晶圓？

I don't quite get your questions.

我不太明白你的問題。

Because you already prepared some of the raw wafer right now for second half ramp. And does that mean that you don't need to buy as many as raw wafers in second half this year compared to first quarter.

因為您現在已經為下半部的升壓準備了一些原始晶圓。這是否意味著與第一季相比，今年下半年您不需要購買那麼多原始晶圓？

That's right. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

A follow-up question from SinoLink's Andrew.

這是來自 SinoLink 的 Andrew 的後續問題。

My follow-up question. First one is regarding CapEx to sales ratio. I remember last time, Dr. Chang mentioned the long-term will stay as [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30%. But for this year, we raised another -- so it's about 30% to 33%. And are we still staying this assumption for the next few years, [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30% CapEx to sales ratio?

我的後續問題。第一個是關於資本支出與銷售額的比率。我記得上次張博士提到長期將保持在[25%]（電話會議後公司進行了更正）至30%。但今年我們又提高了——大約是 30% 到 33%。並且，在未來幾年我們是否仍會保持這一假設，即[25%]（電話會議後公司進行了更正）至 30% 的資本支出與銷售額比率？

Yes. That's due to -- at 30% level, around 30%.

是的。這是因為——在 30% 的水平，大約 30%。

So we changed from [25%] (corrected by company after the call), 30% to 30% level?

所以我們從 [25%]（電話會議後公司進行了更正）改為 30% 到 30% 的水平？

First, within 25% to 30% anyway, okay? This year, it will be higher, yes, for the reason I was just mentioning, slightly above 30%. And if you look at the couple in the years down the road will be around 30%. Some year may be lower, slightly lower than 30%, some year at 30%.

第一，無論如何都在25%到30%以內，可以嗎？是的，今年會更高，正如我剛才提到的原因，略高於 30%。如果你看一下這對夫妻，那麼幾年後這個比例將會達到 30% 左右。有些年份可能較低，略低於 30%，有些年份則為 30%。

So more like a 25% to 30% range.

所以更像是 25% 到 30% 的範圍。

Yes. That's still true.

是的。這仍然是事實。

All right. You have another question?

好的。您還有其他問題嗎？

My last question is, are we really gaining back the customer we are losing on 14-nanometer and 10-nanometer for 7? I did not mention any customer name.

我的最後一個問題是，我們真的能贏回在 14 奈米和 10 奈米製程上失去的客戶嗎？我沒有提到任何客戶姓名。

We are the only 7-nanometer provider. So you can imagine that -- the answer over your questions.

我們是唯一一家 7 奈米供應商。所以你可以想像一下——你的問題的答案。

Well, I am just going to -- for the interest of time, only going to limit two questions. So one person each, okay? Citi's Roland first and then Deutsche Bank's Michael. One question each.

好吧，為了節省時間，我只想限制兩個問題。所以每人一個，可以嗎？首先是花旗銀行的羅蘭 (Roland)，然後是德意志銀行的麥可 (Michael)。每人一個問題。

For C.C., now you are ramping up 16-nanometer production in China. So what are you going to do if customer need to do the InFO or CoWoS packaging there? Are you going to build the InFO or CoWoS capacity there? Or are you going to logistically -- to ship back from Taiwan? So this is about InFO and the CoWoS?

對於 C.C. 來說，現在您正在中國加大 16 奈米的生產。那麼，如果客戶需要在那裡進行 InFO 或 CoWoS 包裝，您會怎麼做？您打算在那裡建造 InFO 或 CoWoS 容量嗎？還是你們打算從台灣用物流方式運回？那麼這是關於 InFO 和 CoWoS 的嗎？

Well, that will depend on customers' demand and customers' need. We always support them as much as possible if we can support locally, we'll do it. But not today.

嗯，這取決於客戶的需求和需求。如果我們能夠在當地提供支持，我們就會盡力為他們提供支持。但今天不行。

But not today. Yes.

但今天不行。是的。

Today is not in our plan yet.

今天還不在我們的計劃中。

Okay. So when? When are you going to build a CoWoS or InFO?

好的。那什麼時候？您什麼時候打算建造 CoWoS 或 InFO？

Depend on customers' demand.

取決於客戶的需求。

Michael?

麥可？

You mentioned the 7-nanometer will be very massive. But will most of customers shift to 5-nanometer -- or they will skip 5-nanometer and shift to 3-nanometer directly?

您提到 7 奈米將會非常龐大。但是大多數客戶會轉向 5 奈米嗎？或者他們會跳過 5 奈米直接轉向 3 奈米？

Your question is are those 7-nanometer...

你的問題是那些 7 奈米...

Customer. Will shift to 5-nanometer or they will -- some customer will skip 5-nanometer.

顧客。將轉向 5 奈米，或者他們將——一些客戶將跳過 5 奈米。

We've developed that technology, working with the customer to meet their product design. They have product specs and we are products performance. So whether they moved to 5 or not depend on their products nature. And so some of them, they definitely will move. Some of them probably will stay in 7, 7+.

我們開發了該技術，並與客戶合作以滿足他們的產品設計。他們有產品規格，我們有產品性能。因此，他們是否轉向 5 取決於他們的產品性質。因此，他們中的一些人肯定會搬家。他們中的一些人可能會留在 7、7+。

So in the past, 20 and 10 seems to be small nodes, right? So will we see the 5-nanometer as a small node?

那麼在過去，20和10好像都是小節點，對吧？那我們會將 5 奈米視為一個小節點嗎？

No. 5-nanometer will be a very long node and useful and very cost effective.

不。5奈米將是一個非常長的節點，非常有用且非常具有成本效益。

And will start in 2020.

並將於2020年開始。

Okay. With that, we will conclude our today's conference. Please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 3 hours from now. Transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

好的。今天的會議就到此結束。請注意，會議重播將在 3 小時後開放。成績單將於 24 小時後提供。上述兩份文件均可透過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

So thank you for joining us today. We hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye and have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。