台積電 ADR (TSM) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外文）歡迎參加台積電2017年第二季財報發表會及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊資深總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

(Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

（操作員說明）由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the second quarter of 2017, followed by our guidance for the third quarter of 2017, along with our key messages.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電高級副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們 2017 年第二季的營運情況，然後是我們對 2017 年第三季的指導，以及我們的關鍵業務消息。

Afterwards, TSMC's 2 Presidents and Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide our key messages, then we will open both the floor and the line for questions and answers.

隨後，台積電兩位總裁兼聯席執行長劉馬克博士與 C.C.魏先生將共同提供我們的關鍵訊息，然後我們將開放發言權和問答熱線。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings and conference presentations.

另請下載與今天的收益和會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士來總結營運狀況和當季的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start from the financial highlights for the second quarter, followed by the guidance for the third quarter.

我的演講將從第二季的財務亮點開始，然後是第三季的指導。

Second quarter revenue decreased 8.6% quarter-over-quarter and 3.6% year-over-year.

第二季營收季減8.6%，年減3.6%。

This sequential decline reflecting supply chain inventory management, mobile product seasonality and appreciation in NT dollar against the U.S. dollar.

這一環比下降反映了供應鏈庫存管理、行動產品季節性以及新台幣兌美元升值。

In U.S. dollar terms, second quarter revenue was USD 7.06 billion, about 5.9% decrease Q-over-Q but 3.2% increase year-over-year.

以美元計算，第二季營收為 70.6 億美元，季減約 5.9%，但年增 3.2%。

Gross margin was 50.8%, 1.1 percentage lower than the first quarter, mainly due to the unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率為50.8%，較第一季下降1.1個百分點，主要是受不利的匯率影響。

Operating expenses ratio rose to 11.9% as our revenue decreased more than the expense decrease.

由於我們的收入下降幅度大於費用下降幅度，營運費用率上升至 11.9%。

Operating margin decreased 1.9 percentage points sequentially to reach 38.9% in the second quarter.

第二季營業利益率較上月下降 1.9 個百分點，達到 38.9%。

As I said in my last quarterly conference, the second quarter corporate tax rate would be 23% due to the accrual of 10% undistributed retained earnings tax.

正如我在上一季會議上所說，由於應計 10% 的未分配留存盈餘稅，第二季的企業稅率將為 23%。

The tax rate will fall back to 10% and 11% level in the second half, and the full year tax rate will remain at 13% to 14%.

下半年稅率將回落至10%和11%水平，全年稅率維持在13%至14%。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was $2.56 and ROE was 19%.

總體而言，我們第二季的 EPS 為 2.56 美元，ROE 為 19%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們來看看按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。

During the second quarter, Communication, Computer and Consumer decreased 10%, 14% and 7%, respectively, while Industrial/Standard increased 9%.

第二季度，通訊、電腦和消費品分別下降 10%、14% 和 7%，而工業/標準成長 9%。

In terms of revenue by technology, 10-nanometer process technology contributed 1% of total wafer revenue during the second quarter, while the combined revenue from 16- and 20-nanometer accounted for 26% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, and 28-nanometer represented 27% of total wafer revenue.

從技術收入來看，10奈米製程技術佔第二季晶圓總收入的1%，而16奈米和20奈米合計收入佔第二季晶圓收入的26%，28-奈米晶圓佔晶圓總收入的27%。

So advanced technology, defined as 28-nanometer and below, accounted for 54% of our total wafer revenue in the second quarter.

因此，定義為 28 奈米及以下的先進技術占我們第二季晶圓總收入的 54%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

繼續看資產負債表。

We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 659 billion, essentially flat from the first quarter.

第二季結束時，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 6,590 億，與第一季基本持平。

On the liabilities side, current liabilities increased by TWD 202 billion as we accrued about TWD 182 billion for cash dividends, which will be paid out this month.

負債方面，流動負債增加2,020億元新台幣，因現金股利提列約1,820億元新台幣，將於本月發放。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained at 47 days, while days of inventory increased 8 days to 52 days, primarily due to the higher work-in-process inventory for the 10-nanometer to support production ramp in third quarter.

財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數維持在 47 天，庫存天數增加 8 天至 52 天，主要是由於 10 奈米在製品庫存增加，以支持第三季度的產量提升。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 103 billion cash from operations.

第二季度，我們的營運現金約為 1,030 億新台幣。

We spent TWD 105 billion in capital expenditure, so the free cash flow was an outflow of about TWD 2 billion.

我們的資本支出為1,050億新台幣，因此自由現金流大約流出20億新台幣。

We also disposed TWD 5 billion of fixed income investment.

我們也處分了50億新台幣的固定收益投資。

As a result, overall, our cash balance increased by about TWD 6 billion to TWD 570 billion at the end of the second quarter.

因此，總體而言，我們的現金餘額在第二季末增加了約 60 億新台幣，達到 5,700 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our first half capital expenditure was USD 6.8 billion.

以美元計算，我們上半年的資本支出為 68 億美元。

Full year capital budget remained at about USD 10 billion.

全年資本預算維持在100億美元左右。

Before I conclude the financial summary, I would like to point out the impact of foreign exchange rate on our revenue.

在結束財務摘要之前，我想指出匯率對我們收入的影響。

As I mentioned to you last time, nearly all TSMC's revenue is in U.S. dollar.

正如我上次向大家提到的，台積電幾乎所有收入都是美元。

The sensitivity of our revenue to U.S. dollar versus NT dollar exchange rate is nearly 100%.

我們的營收對美元兌新台幣匯率的敏感度接近100%。

And the sensitivity of both our gross margin and operating margin to 100 basis points exchange rate fluctuation is about 40 basis points.

我們的毛利率和營業利益率對100個基點匯率波動的敏感度約為40個基點。

In the first quarter, NT dollars appreciated by 2% sequentially, followed by another 3% appreciation in the second quarter.

第一季新台幣連續升值2%，第二季又升值3%。

Year-over-year, NT dollars appreciated 6% in first quarter and 6.6% in second quarter.

與去年同期相比，新台幣第一季升值6%，第二季升值6.6%。

Therefore, our first half 2017 revenue in NT dollars only went up by 5.3% compared to first half 2016, whereas in U.S. dollars, our revenue in the first half grew 12.2% from first half 2016.

因此，我們2017年上半年的營收以新台幣計算，較2016年上半年僅成長5.3%，而以美元計算，我們上半年的營收較2016年上半年僅成長12.2%。

This is better than what we stated in the January investor conference that our first half 2017 revenue would grow by about 10% from first half 2016 in U.S. dollar terms.

這比我們在 1 月投資者會議上所說的要好，即以美元計算，我們 2017 年上半年的收入將比 2016 年上半年增長約 10%。

Now let me turn into third quarter guidance.

現在讓我談談第三季的指導。

First of all, starting from this quarter, our quarterly revenue guidance will be given in U.S. dollar only.

首先，從本季開始，我們的季度收入指引將僅以美元給出。

We make these changes because nearly of our revenue -- all our revenue are in U.S. dollars and that giving revenue guidance in U.S. dollar more truthfully reflects our business expectation.

我們做出這些改變是因為我們幾乎所有的收入都是以美元計算的，並且以美元提供的收入指導更真實地反映了我們的業務預期。

So based on current business outlook, we expect third quarter revenue to be between USD 8.12 billion and USD 8.22 billion.

因此，根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季營收將在81.2億美元至82.2億美元之間。

Based on assumptions of TWD 30.30 to USD 1, our third quarter gross margin is expected to be between 48.5% and 50.5%.

根據新台幣 30.30 兌 1 美元的假設，我們第三季的毛利率預計在 48.5% 至 50.5% 之間。

Our third quarter operating margin is expected to be between 37% and 39%.

我們第三季的營業利潤率預計在 37% 至 39% 之間。

Since we begin a significant ramp of our 10-nanometer production in third quarter, we expect the 10-nanometer ramp will impact our second half 2017 gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points.

由於我們在第三季開始大幅提高 10 奈米產量，我們預計 10 奈米產量的增加將影響我們 2017 年下半年的毛利率約 2 至 3 個百分點。

The impact on third quarter margins has already been reflected in our third quarter guidance, which I just provided.

對第三季利潤率的影響已經反映在我剛剛提供的第三季指引中。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now I'd like to turn the microphone to Mark for his comments.

現在我想把麥克風轉向馬克，聽聽他的評論。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

Let me continue to deliver my key messages.

讓我繼續傳達我的關鍵訊息。

First, I want to talk about our near-term demand.

首先，我想談談我們的近期需求。

Because again, all our customer orders are in U.S. dollar, I will here describe our near-term demand in terms of our revenue in U.S. dollar.

因為我們所有的客戶訂單都是以美元計價，所以我將在這裡以美元收入來描述我們的近期需求。

We now concluded our second quarter with revenue of minus 6% quarter-to-quarter and plus 3% year-to-year in U.S. dollar.

現在，我們第二季的營收按季度計算為負 6%，以美元計算年增 3%。

As we forecasted in our previous conference, the second quarter was impacted by a quite severe inventory adjustment from fabless customers, and we saw fabless customer inventory quickly by adjusting during this period.

正如我們在先前的會議中預測的那樣，第二季度受到無晶圓廠客戶相當嚴重的庫存調整的影響，我們看到無晶圓廠客戶庫存在這段時間通過調整很快。

Combining the first and the second quarters, our first half 2017 revenue will grow 12% year-to-year in U.S. dollar, higher than our guidance of 10% year-to-year growth we've estimated in our January conference.

結合第一季和第二季度，我們 2017 年上半年的美元營收將年增 12%，高於我們在 1 月會議中預計的同比增長 10% 的指引。

On the fabless inventory, with fabless companies' revenue going through recovery and the above-mentioned inventory management, fabless DOI has substantially decreased but still slightly above seasonal exiting Q2.

在無晶圓廠庫存方面，隨著無晶圓廠公司收入的恢復和上述庫存管理，無晶圓廠DOI大幅下降，但仍略高於第二季的季節性。

We estimate the fabless inventory will continuously reduce and will come to about seasonal level at the end of third quarter.

我們預計無晶圓廠庫存將持續減少，並在第三季末達到季節性水準。

Coming to the third quarter, we forecast our third quarter revenue will grow 15.7% quarter-to-quarter.

來到第三季度，我們預計第三季營收將季增15.7%。

This growth is driven by a fast ramp-up of 10-nanometer mobile customer products, but moderated by the continuous inventory adjustment.

這一成長是由 10 奈米行動客戶產品的快速成長所推動的，但因庫存的持續調整而有所放緩。

We expect China smartphone market, after a slow demand period in the first half, will start to recover with new models to launch in the third quarter 2017.

我們預計，中國智慧型手機市場在經歷了上半年的需求低迷期後，將開始復甦，新機型將於 2017 年第三季推出。

Other than smartphone, we continue to see good momentum in industrial and automotive sectors.

除了智慧型手機之外，我們繼續看到工業和汽車領域的良好勢頭。

So we raised this year's worldwide non-memory semiconductor growth rate from 4% to 6%.

因此我們將今年全球非記憶體半導體成長率從4%上調至6%。

This is primarily due to a richer product mix in several markets, including computing, communication and automotive.

這主要是由於計算、通訊和汽車等多個市場的產品組合更加豐富。

We also increased this year's foundry growth forecast from 5% to 6%.

我們也將今年的代工成長預測從 5% 上調至 6%。

For TSMC, we reiterate our full year 2017 growth will be in the range of 5% to 10% in U.S. dollar.

對於台積電，我們重申 2017 年全年成長率以美元計算將在 5% 至 10% 範圍內。

Now my second key message is about 7-nanometer that include our N7 and N7+ and its outlook.

現在我的第二個關鍵訊息是關於7奈米，包括我們的N7和N7+及其展望。

TSMC's N7 has passed technology qualification in April, right on our schedule.

台積電的N7已於4月通過了技術鑑定，正合我們的計劃。

N7 is widely adopted by our customers.

N7被我們的客戶廣泛採用。

We expect to have 13 new N7 product tape-outs this year.

我們預計今年將有 13 個 N7 新產品流片。

So far, N7 yield is ahead of our plan.

到目前為止，N7的產量已經超出了我們的計劃。

We expect to have a very fast and smooth N7 ramp-up in 2018, with its yield learning even better than our 16-nanometer.

我們預計 N7 在 2018 年將實現非常快速、平穩的提升，其良率學習甚至比我們的 16 奈米還要好。

Our N7+ technology is under development based on this robust N7 technology.

我們的 N7+ 技術正在基於這種強大的 N7 技術進行開發。

We inserted several EUV layers in N7+ to take the most benefit from EUV technology with minimum risk.

我們在 N7+ 中插入了多個 EUV 層，以最小的風險從 EUV 技術中獲得最大的利益。

Our N7+ technology will be again the most advanced technology in the foundry industry in 2018 in terms of density, performance and power.

我們的N7+技術在密度、性能和功率方面將再次成為2018年代工業最先進的技術。

This N7+ will ride on N7 learning to have a very steep yield learning curve.

這個 N7+ 將依靠 N7 學習來獲得非常陡峭的殖利率學習曲線。

We also have enabled the design porting from N7 to N7+ to be very easy by carefully design rule arrangement and our strong EDA utility and IT support.

透過精心的設計規則安排以及強大的 EDA 實用程式和 IT 支持，我們也讓從 N7 到 N7+ 的設計移植變得非常容易。

We expect our 7-nanometer node, N7 and N7+, to be a major and long-life technology node.

我們預計我們的 7 奈米節點 N7 和 N7+ 將成為主要且長壽命的技術節點。

It will be used in mobile, high-performance computing and automotive markets.

它將用於行動、高效能運算和汽車市場。

It will cover premium, mainstream as well as low-cost products in all those markets.

它將涵蓋所有這些市場的優質、主流和低成本產品。

Then I will briefly talk about our advanced technology progress.

接下來我簡單講一下我們的先進技術進展。

I would like to update our EUV progress.

我想更新一下我們的 EUV 進度。

Both our EUV tool development and the lithography process development have progressed very well in the past 6 months.

在過去的 6 個月裡，我們的 EUV 工具開發和光刻製程開發都進展順利。

We have worked closely with our tool partner, ASML, who has demonstrated 250-watt EUV source power in their labs.

我們與我們的工具合作夥伴 ASML 密切合作，ASML 在其實驗室中展示了 250 瓦 EUV 光源。

In TSMC, EUV lithography process development also went on very smoothly.

在台積電，EUV光刻製程的開發也進行得非常順利。

We run several EUV layers with our N7 SRAM vehicle with the same yield level as non-EUV process.

我們在 N7 SRAM 車輛上運行多個 EUV 層，其良率等級與非 EUV 製程相同。

Lastly, our 5-nanometer.

最後是我們的 5 奈米。

Our 5-nanometer technology development is well on track, already with SRAM functional yield.

我們的 5 奈米技術開發進展順利，並已實現 SRAM 功能良率。

We will offer 5-nanometer in 1Q 2019.

我們將在 2019 年第一季提供 5 奈米。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

I turn the microphone to C.C.

我將麥克風轉向 C.C.

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

Now let me start with our 10-nanometer ramp stages.

現在讓我從我們的 10 奈米斜坡階段開始。

We are ramping up our 10-nanometer at full speed since last month.

自上個月以來，我們正在全速推進我們的 10 奈米製程。

Currently, all the products are for mobile applications.

目前，所有產品均適用於行動應用程式。

The yield progress continue to be slightly ahead of schedule.

產量進度持續略微提前。

We continue to expect 10-nanometer will contribute about 10% of our wafer revenue this year.

我們仍然預計今年 10 奈米將貢獻我們晶圓收入的 10% 左右。

Now let me talk about the 28-nanometer and 16 derivative.

現在我來說說28奈米和16奈米的衍生品。

Our 28-nanometer business remains strong.

我們的 28 奈米業務依然強勁。

In order to meet customer's demand, we have increased our 28-nanometer capacity this year, as I reported last time.

為了滿足客戶的需求，我們今年增加了28奈米的產能，正如我上次報導的那樣。

In addition to the capacity increase, we further expanded and improved 28-nanometer technologies from 28HPC to 28HPC+ and now to 22-nanometer.

除了產能增加之外，我們還進一步擴展和改進了28奈米技術，從28HPC到28HPC+，現在到22奈米。

Let me state again what I mentioned the last time about our 22 nanometers.

我再說一次我上次提到的關於我們22奈米的事情。

TSMC's 22ULP offers a 15% performance gain or 35% power reduction as compared with 28HPC+.

與 28HPC+ 相比，台積電的 22ULP 效能提升 15%，功耗降低 35%。

This technology is suitable for applications in IoT, ISP, GPS, WiFi, RF and 5G millimeter wave.

此技術適用於物聯網、ISP、GPS、WiFi、RF和5G毫米波等應用。

We already have many 22ULP tape-outs ongoing and expect volume production to begin next year.

我們已經有許多 22ULP 正在進行流片，預計明年將開始大量生產。

With this extension of 28-nanometer, we are confident that we will continue to enjoy a high market segment share at this node.

隨著28奈米的延伸，我們有信心在這個節點繼續享有較高的細分市場份額。

For 16-nanometer, we also extend this technology into 12-nanometer, which will have about a 10% better performance or 25% lower power consumption as compared with a 16FFC.

對於16奈米，我們也將這項技術擴展到12奈米，與16FFC相比，性能提高約10％，功耗降低約25％。

In addition to these benefits, our 12-nanometer customers can use almost the same IP ecosystem of 16-nanometer to design better products.

除了這些優勢之外，我們的 12 奈米客戶還可以使用與 16 奈米幾乎相同的 IP 生態系統來設計更好的產品。

This resulted in much lower development costs for our customers.

這大大降低了我們客戶的開發成本。

Now let me make a few comments on our competitive position, especially on those 16-nanometer, 28-nanometer and all the technology nodes.

現在我就我們的競爭地位，特別是16奈米、28奈米以及所有技術節點發表一些評論。

First of all, I want to point out that TSMC's policy is to achieve full utilization of our capacity in all nodes.

首先我要指出的是，台積電的政策是在所有節點上實現我們產能的充分利用。

We believe we can achieve this objective because we compete from a position of strength.

我們相信我們能夠實現這一目標，因為我們擁有強大的競爭優勢。

Our strengths include: one, we develop many derivative technology to satisfy all customers' requirements; two, we are a trusted foundry by our customer; and three, our manufacturing cost is very competitive.

我們的優勢包括：一、我們開發了許多衍生技術來滿足所有客戶的需求；二、我們是客戶值得信賴的代工廠；第三，我們的製造成本非常有競爭力。

In fact, we believe we are the lowest cost producer.

事實上，我們相信我們是成本最低的生產商。

We can still strive when competitors start to lose money.

當競爭對手開始虧損時，我們仍然可以奮鬥。

To summarize, we work closely with our customers to satisfy their technology and capacity requirement on both performance and cost.

總而言之，我們與客戶密切合作，以滿足他們對性能和成本的技術和容量要求。

As a result, we are able to achieve full utilization and high market segment share.

因此，我們能夠實現充分利用和高細分市場份額。

Now let me talk about the MRAM and RRAM.

現在我來談談MRAM和RRAM。

We have been developing emerging memories such as the MRAM, RRAM and others.

我們一直在開發新興記憶體，例如 MRAM、RRAM 等。

The progress is to further reduce power consumption and processing cost as compared with conventional embedded flash memory, which has been widely used in applications such as MPU and PMIC.

與已廣泛應用於MPU和PMIC等應用的傳統嵌入式快閃記憶體相比，這項進展是進一步降低功耗和處理成本。

Both the MRAM and RRAM can be used in derivative specialty technologies such as the 22ULP as well as the more advanced technologies such as the 16FFC and 12FFC.

MRAM 和 RRAM 均可用於衍生專業技術（例如 22ULP）以及更先進的技術（例如 16FFC 和 12FFC）。

In addition to wafer processing technology, we have been developing advanced packaging technologies to enhance customers' product performance.

除了晶圓加工技術外，我們也一直在開發先進的封裝技術，以增強客戶的產品效能。

We started in 1999 with eutectic bumping, and then moved on to copper bumping, and now we have wafer-level packaging such as InFO and CoWoS that delivered more integrated values to our customers.

我們從 1999 年開始使用共晶凸塊，然後轉向銅凸塊，現在我們擁有 InFO 和 CoWoS 等晶圓級封裝，為我們的客戶提供了更多整合價值。

Both the InFO and CoWoS has been in mass production, and their applications include mobile and high-speed computing.

InFO和CoWoS均已量產，應用領域包括行動和高速運算。

We think our advanced packaging technology are a clear differentiator for TSMC and will find many ways into artificial intelligence-related applications.

我們認為我們先進的封裝技術是台積電的明顯優勢，並將找到多種方法進入人工智慧相關應用。

We continue to work with many customers for their new products which are planned for the next 2 years.

我們將繼續與許多客戶合作，開發他們計劃在未來兩年推出的新產品。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to 2 at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家，每次提問限制在2個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有提問的機會。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將從現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

（操作員說明） 現在讓我們開始問答環節。

First, the question will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

首先，這個問題將由瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出。

First question on some of the graphics companies have seen a lot of design win traction both in the data center and automotive space.

第一個問題是，一些圖形公司的許多設計在資料中心和汽車領域都贏得了關注。

I'm curious, based on that success from some of your customers, do you see potential for better growth from high-performance computing relative to what you outlined and potential, this could take your growth above that 5% to 10% target?

我很好奇，根據您的一些客戶的成功，您是否認為高效能運算相對於您所概述的和潛力有更好的成長潛力，這可能會讓您的成長超過 5% 到 10% 的目標？

Yes, we still maintain our long-term growth.

是的，我們仍然保持長期成長。

It's between 5% to 10%.

介於 5% 到 10% 之間。

This is -- indeed, there are many exciting development in the high-performance computing as well as artificial intelligence.

事實上，高效能運算和人工智慧領域有許多令人興奮的發展。

However, this growth is really in the beginning stage and very difficult to forecast 3 or 5 years down the road.

然而，這種成長確實處於開始階段，很難預測未來 3 到 5 年的情況。

So at this point, we maintain our long-term forecast.

因此，目前我們維持長期預測。

The second question, more on the near term.

第二個問題，更多的是近期的問題。

Factoring we had a lower first half from the inventory correction, and you're heading into a steep product ramp for smartphone, could you give an initial view if seasonality shifts and you expect, say, better-than-seasonal fourth quarter, first quarter, at least how it looks at this stage, maybe for Q4 and Q1, the initial view?

考慮到我們上半年的庫存調整較低，而且智慧型手機產品正進入急劇增長階段，您能否給出一個初步的看法，如果季節性發生變化，並且您預計第四季度、第一季會好於季節性，至少現階段看起來如何，也許對於第四季和第一季來說，最初的看法是什麼？

Randy, are you asking smartphone market?

Randy，你是在問智慧型手機市場嗎？

Asking over -- for the overall company, just factoring first half was slower and you also have a steep ramp that looks a little bit later this year.

就整個公司而言，僅考慮上半年的速度就較慢，而且今年看起來會有點陡峭的成長。

If you could push seasonality out that, say, fourth quarter, first quarter might be better than in the past.

如果你能排除季節性因素，比如說第四季度，第一季可能會比過去更好。

Next year, you mean?

你是說明年？

Fourth quarter this year, first quarter next year.

今年第四季度，明年第一季。

Fourth quarter, yes, we just forecasted that -- this third quarter is very high quarter-to-quarter growth, and we expect fourth quarter will be -- we didn't do forecast.

第四季度，是的，我們只是預測——第三季度的環比增長非常高，我們預計第四季度也會——我們沒有做預測。

We expect -- it's a pretty strong quarter.

我們預計，這是一個相當強勁的季度。

Lora just estimated that year-to-year, we should be grow by 5%?

Lora 剛剛估計我們每年應該成長 5%？

Second half to second half.

下半場到下半場。

Second half to second half.

下半場到下半場。

So that is showing the growth momentum of the second half this year.

由此可見今年下半年的成長動能。

And just to follow up on that.

只是為了跟進。

The margin, you mentioned about 2- to 3-point impact on margin in the third quarter.

利潤率，您提到第三季對利潤率的影響約為 2 到 3 個百分點。

If there's a steeper ramp into fourth quarter, do you expect similar impact, given you'll start to get scale and learning, or would the impact start to come down?

如果進入第四季度出現更陡峭的成長，考慮到您將開始擴大規模和學習，您是否預計會產生類似的影響，或者影響會開始下降？

For second half, we will be affected by the 10-nanometer ramp, I was just talking about.

下半年，我們將受到 10 奈米斜坡的影響，我剛才談到了。

But also, we are seeing a strong third and fourth quarter, which we believe utilization will be higher, so that's a positive.

而且，我們看到第三季和第四季表現強勁，我們相信利用率會更高，所以這是正面的。

So we have negative and positive.

所以我們有消極的和積極的。

Then the next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

那麼下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Actually, the HPC, Mark gave the expectation before, it's USD 15 billion for foundry TAM in 2020, USD 15 billion foundry TAM for HPC in 2020.

其實HPC方面，Mark之前給的預期是，2020年代工TAM是150億美元，2020年HPC代工TAM是150億美元。

So do you have any update for that number?

那麼您有關於該號碼的任何更新嗎？

You're asking me the TAM of HPC in 2020.

你問我 2020 年 HPC 的 TAM。

Again, HPC, as Randy asked earlier, it's really in the initial growth period.

再說一遍，HPC，正如 Randy 之前所問的，它確實處於初始成長期。

It's very difficult to forecast the TAM in 2020, but I can see what -- today, the HPC sector, I include server, networking storage and gaming.

預測 2020 年的 TAM 非常困難，但我可以看到今天的 HPC 領域，我包括伺服器、網路儲存和遊戲。

We recently added into AR and VR, which has just started.

我們最近加入了AR和VR，這才剛開始。

This sector, we estimate total TAM is about $10 billion to $11 billion today -- this year.

我們估計今年這個產業的 TAM 總額約為 100 億至 110 億美元。

And we estimate this growth -- industry TAM growth will be about 10% a year, and we strive to grow several percentage -- percent point above that.

我們估計產業 TAM 的成長速度約為每年 10%，我們努力將成長提高幾個百分點。

Second question is regarding the outlook for each segment, the outlook for each segment in terms of the...

第二個問題是關於每個細分市場的前景，每個細分市場的前景...

I can tell you the segments for the third quarter, which we just gave the guidance.

我可以告訴你第三季的細分市場，我們剛剛給了指導。

As you can see from the guidance, we're guiding around roughly 16% Q-over-Q growth.

正如您從指導中看到的，我們指導的環比增長率約為 16%。

So we expect all major segments will grow across the board.

因此，我們預計所有主要細分市場都將全面成長。

Every segment will grow, okay?

每個部分都會成長，好嗎？

Each segment will have similar growth?

每個細分市場都會有類似的成長嗎？

No, no, no.

不不不。

Computer and Consumer will grow better, but those 2 segments account for smaller revenue of TSMC, and the biggest is the Communication.

電腦和消費性將成長得更好，但這兩個部分佔台積電收入較小，其中最大的是通訊。

We do expect that Communication will continue to grow.

我們確實預計通信將繼續增長。

Can we say that between wireless and wireline that the growth rate between wireless -- you don't really comment on that, but can you highlight, is there demand from wireless picking up strongly over speakers and wireline?

我們是否可以說，無線和有線之間的成長率——您並沒有真正對此發表評論，但您能否強調一下，無線的需求是否比揚聲器和有線的需求強勁增長？

I will not comment subsegments, sorry.

抱歉，我不會評論子片段。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗集團的 Roland Shu 提出。

If I just look at your 3Q revenue guidance, actually, if I use the exchange rate of 30.3% that you have guided for the gross margin, and then the -- in NT dollar terms, actually, it is smaller than if we multiply June monthly sales by 3. So it means for the revenue -- single month revenue point of view in 3Q probably will be lower than the monthly sales in June.

如果我只看你們的第三季收入指導，實際上，如果我使用你們指導的毛利率30.3%的匯率，那麼——以新台幣計算，實際上，它比我們乘以6月份的要小月銷售額減少了3。

So for me, actually, I'm thinking now we are ramping up 10-nanometer shipment sharply, so that is the 10-nanometer, like C.C. said, is going to contribute about 10% of total revenue in this year.

所以對我來說，實際上，我現在在想我們正在大幅增加 10 奈米出貨量，這就是 10 奈米，就像 C.C.據稱，今年將貢獻總收入的10%左右。

But in first half, we only have 1% in second quarter.

但上半年我們只有1%，第二季我們只有1%。

So that means that we're going to have very strong 10-nanometer revenue in 3Q and 4Q.

因此，這意味著我們將在第三季和第四季擁有非常強勁的 10 奈米收入。

However, in 3Q, our revenue guidance is still smaller than -- I just times June monthly sales by 3. So what is the weakness for the technology point of view for the revenue contribution in 3Q?

然而，在第三季度，我們的營收指引仍然小於——我只是將 6 月月銷售額乘以 3。

I will not recommend you look at monthly number and use that monthly number times 3 because it does fluctuate month-to-month, okay?

我不會建議您查看每月數字並使用該每月數字乘以 3，因為它確實每月都會波動，好嗎？

For third quarter, as Mark has been mentioning, the inventory correction will continue through the third quarter, which is a little bit longer than we earlier expected.

對於第三季度，正如馬克所提到的，庫存調整將持續到第三季度，這比我們之前的預期要長一些。

That is why the third quarter doesn't look as strong as people would expect.

這就是為什麼第三季看起來不像人們預期的那麼強勁。

But do you see any customer, they just change or defer their wafer shipment in 3Q and defer their shipment in 4Q?

但你是否看到任何客戶，他們只是改變或推遲第三季的晶圓出貨，並推遲第四季的出貨？

No, no, we don't see that.

不，不，我們沒有看到這一點。

I think what's behind it is that the OEM and channel of smartphone, actually, inventory is back to normal at the end of second quarter.

我認為背後的原因是智慧型手機的OEM和管道，實際上，庫存在第二季末已經恢復正常。

And come to the third quarter, the smartphone, particularly in China, will start pulling shipment.

到了第三季度，智慧型手機，特別是在中國，將開始拉動出貨量。

However, our fabless customers still have a higher-than-season inventory.

然而，我們的無晶圓廠客戶的庫存仍然高於季節。

So it takes a little bit longer for us to ride synchronously with the end market.

所以我們需要更長的時間才能與終端市場同步。

Okay.

好的。

From a gross margin point of view, can you remind us, if everything is equal, for every 1 percentage point of the utilization change, how much impact on the gross margin?

從毛利率的角度來看，您能否提醒我們，如果一切都相同，利用率每變動1個百分點，對毛利率的影響有多大？

I think Lora used to give us this number previously, right?

我想 Lora 以前曾經給過我們這個號碼，對嗎？

Yes, I did say it's about 0.4 percentage points.

是的，我確實說過大約是0.4個百分點。

Just coincidently, same as the 1% of the foreign exchange rate.

巧合的是，與外匯匯率的1%相同。

But it does fluctuate depending on which technology.

但它確實會根據技術的不同而波動。

But in general, I would still say about 0.4 percentage points.

但總的來說，我還是會說0.4個百分點左右。

Okay.

好的。

And we know you put in some production in second quarter.

我們知道你們在第二季投入了一些生產。

So the actual utilization in second quarter probably will be higher, like if we just divide the shipment to the total capacity.

因此，第二季的實際利用率可能會更高，就像我們將出貨量除以總產能一樣。

So question is, what's the difference between the 2Q actual utilization versus 3Q actual utilization?

那麼問題來了，第二季的實際利用率與第三季的實際利用率有什麼不同？

I probably cannot comment the utilization on second quarter and third quarter.

我可能無法評論第二季和第三季的使用率。

But what you said earlier that in preparation for the 10-nanometer shipping in third quarter, which will be account for 10% of our revenue, we did start to prepare a work-in-process in second quarter.

但你之前說過，為了準備第三季的10奈米出貨量，這將占我們收入的10%，我們確實在第二季開始準備在製品。

So that helped a little bit on the second quarter utilization as well.

因此，這對第二季的使用率也有一定幫助。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, and for the 4Q, I now expected very strong growth for 4Q, means also the utilization probably will be higher.

是的，對於第四季度，我現在預計第四季度將出現非常強勁的成長，這也意味著利用率可能會更高。

So that is we can use the 2 to 3 percentage point dilution from 10-nanometer ramp.

因此，我們可以使用 10 奈米斜坡的 2 到 3 個百分點的稀釋。

And then if we have higher utilization, then we can add, just I'd use this multiple, 0.4 to calculate the gross margin.

然後，如果我們的利用率更高，那麼我們可以添加，只是我會使用這個倍數 0.4 來計算毛利率。

Am I right?

我對嗎？

Theoretically, okay?

理論上可以嗎？

But we have to see what will be the actual utilization in the fourth quarter, okay?

但我們必須看看第四季的實際利用率是多少，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

The following questions will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

以下問題將由大和的 Rick Hsu 提出。

This question is on your 10-nanometer ramp-up.

這個問題是關於 10 奈米的提升。

Could you give us a little bit more color about your revenue contribution in Q3 and Q4?

您能否詳細介紹一下您在第三季和第四季的營收貢獻？

Is it possible?

是否可以？

C.C. just mentioning the 10-nanometer wafer revenue contribution from 10-nanometer will be 10%.

C.C.剛才提到10奈米晶圓對10奈米晶圓收入的貢獻將是10%。

And for the whole year, we expect the 10-nanometer will account for 10% of total company's whole year wafer revenue.

就全年而言，我們預計10奈米將占公司全年晶圓營收的10%。

So can you break it down in Q3 and Q4?

那麼你能在第三季和第四季分解一下嗎？

No?

不？

I will not break down to Q4, okay?

我不會分解到Q4，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Then one follow-up question is also on your 10-nanometer.

接下來的一個問題也是關於你的 10 奈米。

What's the manufacturing cycle time for 10-nanometer as compared with the 16, like how much a percentage increase?

與 16 奈米相比，10 奈米的製造週期時間是多少？

The manufacturing cycle time you are talking about is a total cycle time?

您所說的製造週期時間是總週期時間嗎？

You're right.

你說得對。

Like how many days for total cycle time in 10-nanometer?

例如 10 奈米的總週期時間是多少天？

Let me say that the cycle time, actually, we're calculating the -- how many days per layer, and it's very comparable.

讓我說一下，實際上，我們正​​在計算每層多少天的周期時間，而且它非常具有可比性。

Actually, 10-nanometer is a little bit better than 16.

事實上，10奈米比16奈米好一點。

But your -- layer account for 10-nanometer should be...

但是你的 10 奈米層帳戶應該是...

Much larger, much larger.

更大，更大。

The layer count is about something 20% more than 16.

層數比 16 層多約 20%。

All right.

好的。

The following questions will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

以下問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) Bill Lu 提出。

Dr. Liu talked about the leadership of 7-nanometers in terms of technology and also TSMC's overall cost leadership.

劉博士談到了7奈米在技術方面的領先性，以及台積電整體成本的領先性。

We're now, I guess, a little bit more than a year away from EUV.

我想，現在距離 EUV 還剩下一年多的時間。

Can you talk a little bit about the cost advantages of EUV?

能談談EUV的成本優勢嗎？

Can you -- do we have a little more clarity on the -- on quantifying the cost advantages?

我們能否更清楚地量化成本優勢？

I'm asking that because your competitor is doing non-EUV 8-nanometer.

我這麼問是因為你們的競爭對手正在生產非 EUV 8 奈米。

So I'm wondering, if we look out into the next 1 to 2 years, does your technology leadership and your cost leadership widen?

所以我想知道，如果我們展望未來 1 到 2 年，你們的技術領先地位和成本領先地位是否會擴大？

EUV is progressing rapidly, and we started the 7+ very early.

EUV進展很快，我們很早就開始了7+。

And this EUV technology insertion in N7 is not only meant to do the cost reduction, the wafer cost reduction, but also to increase the density and increase the performance, transistor performance.

而N7中引進EUV技術不僅是為了降低成本、降低晶圓成本，更是為了提高密度、提高性能、電晶體性能。

So this technology is just -- not just the cost reduction.

所以這項技術不僅僅是降低成本。

It has the performance and density increases.

它具有性能和密度的增加。

As far as the EUV, I think we can reduce the cost by adopting the EUV on 7-nanometer.

至於EUV，我認為我們可以透過在7奈米上採用EUV來降低成本。

So you don't want to quantify that right now?

所以你現在不想量化？

Right.

正確的。

I think our people always do better than I quantify it.

我認為我們的員工總是比我量化的做得更好。

So right now, it's really early to give you a number, yes.

所以現在給你一個數字還為時過早，是的。

And then the second question is for Dr. Wei.

第二個問題是問魏博士的。

It's pretty unusual for TSMC to see this kind of revenue on 28 this far after the initial introduction.

對於台積電來說，在 28 年首次推出後這麼遠的時間就看到這樣的收入是很不尋常的。

Can you tell us the outlook for 28 over the next several years in terms of volume demand?

您能否告訴我們 28 未來幾年的銷售需求前景？

We have increased the capacity due to the strong demand, as I stated.

正如我所說，由於需求強勁，我們增加了產能。

So we have confidence that in the next few years, because we extended technology to 22, and that can be applied to a lot of other area, like ISP, like 5G millimeter wave RF.

所以我們有信心在未來幾年內，因為我們將技術擴展到22，並且可以應用於許多其他領域，例如ISP，例如5G毫米波RF。

So we are confident that we get prepared, and the outlook looks good.

因此，我們有信心做好準備，前景看起來不錯。

Maybe I'll ask that a different way.

也許我會以不同的方式問這個問題。

So you're increasing capacity by 15% this year.

因此，今年您將產能增加 15%。

Are there plans to add more in the subsequent years?

未來幾年是否計劃增加更多？

We will continue to improve the productivity.

我們將繼續提高生產力。

But the capacity, I cannot tell you that how much we will going to continue to increase.

但是產能，我不能告訴你我們將繼續增加多少。

If I can make some comments in addition to Mark and C.C. The capacity increase for 28-nanometer, as you mentioned, it was 15%.

除了 Mark 和 C.C. 之外，我還能發表一些評論嗎？正如您所提到的，28奈米的容量增加了15%。

But out of this 15% we did increase some newly add capacity.

但在這 15% 中，我們確實增加了一些新增加的產能。

But at the same time, we are also driving the productivity improvement.

但同時，我們也在推動生產力的提升。

So on that 15%, there are about 5% contributed from the newly added capacity for this year, and the big portion coming from productivity improvement.

那麼這15%中，大約有5%是今年新增產能貢獻的，其中很大一部分來自於產能的提升。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Next questions will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

接下來的問題將由摩根士丹利的查理陳提出。

So my first question is regarding your back-end service.

所以我的第一個問題是關於你們的後端服務。

So C.C., can you please give us some guidance about your CoWoS, 2.5D CoWoS contribution last year and this year?

那麼，C.C.，您能給我們一些關於您去年和今年的 CoWoS、2.5D CoWoS 貢獻的指導嗎？

And going forward, do you think that a back-end service overall, InFO plus, CoWoS and bumping business can outgrow the wafer business in the coming, let's say, 5 years?

展望未來，您認為後端服務整體、InFO plus、CoWoS 和凸塊業務能否在未來（比如說 5 年）內超過晶圓業務？

Your first question, on the CoWoS contribution in revenue, it's still small, almost doubled from last year to this year or more than doubled, but that had been widely used in very high-performance product.

你的第一個問題，關於CoWoS對收入的貢獻，它仍然很小，從去年到今年幾乎翻了一番，甚至超過了一倍，但它已經廣泛應用於非常高性能的產品。

So it continues to be very popular, but I think the strong growth will continue for many years.

所以它仍然很受歡迎，但我認為強勁的成長將持續很多年。

Combining the InFO and the CoWoS on the packaging technology revenue is better than the wafer revenue in CAGR.

將 InFO 和 CoWoS 結合起來，封裝技術收入的複合年增長率優於晶圓收入。

I mean, that every year, we grow much faster than that wafer revenue.

我的意思是，每年我們的成長速度都比晶圓收入快得多。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, and my next question is regarding your 7-nanometer versus 10-nanometer gross margin comparison because we all know that 7-nanometer, you can use the common tools for -- with a 10-nanometer.

是的，我的下一個問題是關於 7 奈米與 10 奈米毛利率的比較，因為我們都知道 7 奈米，您可以使用 10 奈米的常用工具。

And also, I think for 7-nanometer, you will have some more applications in HPC.

而且，我認為 7 奈米在 HPC 方面會有更多應用。

I would assume that margin from the HPC customer is higher.

我認為 HPC 客戶的利潤更高。

So is that -- what's the right way to think about the 10-nanometer -- sorry, 7-nanometer margin going forward?

那麼，思考 10 奈米的正確方法是什麼——抱歉，未來 7 奈米的裕度是多少？

That's true, the 7-nanometer is this -- on the basis of 10-nanometer, so 7-nanometer has a better margin on the same peer-to-peer comparison versus 10.

確實如此，7 奈米就是這樣——在 10 奈米的基礎上，所以在相同的同行比較中，7 奈米比 10 奈米有更好的餘裕。

Okay.

好的。

Can you please quantify, for example?

例如，您能量化一下嗎？

Probably not.

可能不會。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, so a quick follow-up on Bill's question regarding 28-nanometer because this year, your first half 28-nanometer quarterly revenue see a sequential decline in 1Q and 2Q.

是的，所以快速跟進 Bill 關於 28 奈米的問題，因為今年上半年 28 奈米季度收入在第一季和第二季連續下降。

All right?

好的？

So for the full year, do you expect your 28-nanometer can grow?

那麼對於全年來說，您預計 28 奈米能夠成長嗎？

Because you're adding capacity by 15%, right, but your revenue seems to have declined.

因為您的產能增加了 15%，對吧，但您的收入似乎有所下降。

The first half, as Mark just pointed out, is because of inventory corrections, so it's a little bit soft.

上半年，正如馬克剛才指出的，是因為庫存調整，所以有點疲軟。

Again, we increased the capacity because we see the demand coming.

我們再次增加了產能，因為我們看到了需求的到來。

I can tell you that the tape-out this year is better than last year.

我可以告訴你，今年的流片比去年好。

Last year is better than the previous year.

去年比前一年好。

So the tape-outs are -- using the tape-outs activity, I can tell you that they still have a very bright future for 28-nanometer.

因此，透過流片活動，我可以告訴您，28 奈米技術仍然擁有非常光明的未來。

All right.

好的。

I think this is about time that we will go to the line for the questions.

我認為現在是我們排隊提問的時候了。

Analysts have been queuing up on the line.

分析師們已經在網路上排隊。

So operator, please go to the first caller on the line.

因此，接線員請轉接線上的第一個來電者。

Sure.

當然。

The first question today comes from the line of Donald Lu from Goldman Sachs.

今天的第一個問題來自高盛的Donald Lu。

First, I would like to just to verify a point.

首先，我想驗證一個觀點。

I think the currency assumption for gross margin for Q3 is $30.

我認為第三季毛利率的貨幣假設是 30 美元。

And also, Lora, can you repeat the guidance for the second half revenue?

另外，Lora，您能重複下半年收入的指導嗎？

I didn't give guidance for second half.

我沒有給出下半場的指導。

I was talking about the guidance for the third quarter.

我正在談論第三季度的指導。

So your question is on the currency impact.

所以你的問題是關於貨幣的影響。

I was -- I think I was saying nearly 100% of TSMC revenue are in U.S. dollars.

我想我是說台積電近 100% 的收入都是美元。

So every 1% foreign exchange fluctuation will impact our gross margin by 0.4 percentage point.

因此，匯率每波動1%，就會影響我們的毛利率0.4個百分點。

That's what I said.

這就是我所說的。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

I thought we commented on the TSMC's revenue in the second half this year on a year-over-year growth basis.

我想我們對台積電今年下半年營收的評論是基於同比增長的。

There's a number.

有一個數字。

I remember at least in the last conference call, there was a 5% guidance in U.S. dollar terms.

我記得至少在上次電話會議上，有以美元計算的 5% 的指引。

Yes.

是的。

I think the first quarter, Chairman mentioned that second half of '17 over second half of '16, we expect the U.S. dollar revenue to grow about 5%, and we still -- Mark also reiterated our view, so we're still with that opinion.

我認為第一季度，主席提到 17 年下半年比 16 年下半年，我們預計美元收入將增長 5% 左右，而且我們仍然 - 馬克也重申了我們的觀點，所以我們仍然那個意見。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And in Q3, the gross margin guidance is based on TWD 30 exchange rate between USD and TWD...

而在第三季度，毛利率指引是基於美元與新台幣之間的新台幣 30 匯率...

TWD 30.30, TWD 30.3, that was the assumption, yes.

TWD 30.30，TWD 30.3，這是假設，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, my second question is more on the 7-nanometer.

是的，我的第二個問題更多的是關於 7 奈米。

I think Mark mentioned that the N7+ would be the most advanced foundry process next year.

我記得 Mark 提到 N7+ 將是明年最先進的代工工藝。

Could you give more color in terms of more specific, like the more advanced in terms of performance or cost, et cetera, compared to other foundry suppliers?

與其他代工供應商相比，您能否在更具體的方面提供更多的色彩，例如在性能或成本方面更先進等等？

Okay.

好的。

First of all, yes, we have -- we plan to offer our N7+ in the middle of next year, 2018.

首先，是的，我們計劃在明年年中（2018 年）推出 N7+。

And that technology is with EUV volume production.

該技術已實現 EUV 量產。

The reason I mentioned N7+ in such emphasis is our customer who are using our N7 today can migrate to N7+ very easily.

我如此強調提到 N7+ 的原因是我們現在使用 N7 的客戶可以非常輕鬆地遷移到 N7+。

Therefore, the current -- we established our N7+ customer base on this N7 customer.

因此，目前－我們就是在這個N7客戶的基礎上建立了我們的N7+客戶群。

We have already more than 30 customers on N7 today.

目前，我們已經有 30 多家客戶使用 N7。

Secondly, the yield learning, we -- by then, we should have volume production on N7.

其次，良率學習，到那時，我們應該可以量產 N7。

And N7+ is just ride on the same yield learning curve.

而 N7+ 只是遵循相同的殖利率學習曲線。

We don't -- we won't start from a brand-new technology.

我們不會－我們不會從一項全新的技術開始。

And that's including the fact I mentioned earlier, this N7+ have, I think, we, in technology symposium, we mentioned about the density and performance improvement, definitely put this technology in the forefront of any foundry technology at the time.

這包括我剛才提到的，這個N7+，我想，我們在技術研討會上，我們提到了密度和性能的提升，絕對把這個技術放在了當時任何代工技術的前面。

Right.

正確的。

But if your customer and your competitors use EUV on more layers than TSMC, would that potentially make their products less expensive?

但如果您的客戶和競爭對手在比台積電更多的層上使用 EUV，這是否可能會使他們的產品更便宜？

Well, at this point, I don't want to answer hypothetical questions, okay?

好吧，現在我不想回答假設性問題，好嗎？

And we'll see.

我們拭目以待。

I think we'll be posed very competitive and we'll be very, very agile in responding to competition all the time.

我認為我們將處於非常有競爭力的狀態，並且我們將始終非常非常敏捷地應對競爭。

Our next caller on the line, comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們的下一個來電者來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just a follow-up on EUV.

只是 EUV 的後續。

You said that 7, you will offer EUV in the second half of 2018 on 7-nanometer plus.

您說7，您將在2018年下半年在7納米以上提供EUV。

And then full insertion in Q1 of 2019.

然後在 2019 年第一季全面插入。

It will be great if you could help us with the level of insertion.

如果您能幫助我們提高插入水平，那就太好了。

I imagine when you talk about 7-nanometer plus, the insertion is for a couple of critical layers.

我想當你談論 7 奈米以上時，插入是針對幾個關鍵層的。

And then with the full insertion, it would increase to maybe 10 to 12 critical layers, and I was wondering if you could elaborate on it, and I have a follow-up.

然後隨著完全插入，它可能會增加到 10 到 12 個關鍵層，我想知道你是否可以詳細說明它，我有一個後續行動。

So Mehdi's question is how many layers do we intend to input on our 7+, and how many layers we will use on EUV for N5.

因此，Mehdi 的問題是我們打算在 7+ 上輸入多少層，以及我們將在 N5 的 EUV 上使用多少層。

I really don't want to tell you how many layers we inserted in N7+ at this time, because everybody is hearing that and is positioning.

我真的不想告訴你我們這次在N7+中插入了多少層，因為每個人都在聽到並且在定位。

So allow me to tell you that there will be cost reduction, that will be very easy to adopt, you don't start from a new technology, and there will be minimal risk for our customer to ramp.

因此，請允許我告訴您，成本將會降低，這將非常容易採用，您不需要從新技術開始，而且我們的客戶升級的風險也很小。

Sure.

當然。

Because -- okay, let me rephrase my question.

因為——好吧，讓我重新表達我的問題。

I think Lora mentioned that the margin profile for 7 is going to be better than 10-nanometer, and EUV will cost more.

我認為 Lora 提到 7 奈米的利潤率會比 10 奈米更好，而且 EUV 的成本會更高。

So does that mean that the non-EUV layer would benefit from some equipment reuse?

那麼這是否意味著非 EUV 層將受益於一些設備的重複利用？

Well, on the EUV, I think there is more than 90% of 7-nanometers equipment from 10-nanometer.

那麼在 EUV 上，我認為 7 奈米設備有 90% 以上來自 10 奈米。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

I have one quick follow-up question on the 16-nanometer.

我有一個關於 16 奈米的快速跟進問題。

How should we think about the 16-nanometer revenues in the second half of '17 versus second half of '16?

我們該如何看待 17 年下半年與 16 年下半年的 16 奈米收入？

Lora, can you take that?

洛拉，你能接受嗎？

I think our 16-nanometer revenue for this year should be higher than last year.

我覺得我們今年16奈米的營收應該會比去年高。

Okay.

好的。

So you should see a rebound in the second half, correct?

所以你應該會在下半場看到反彈，對嗎？

Because it has been declining Q-o-Q in the first half.

因為上半年環比一直在下降。

Sorry, I was referring to year-over-year.

抱歉，我指的是同比。

You're actually asking for second half versus first half.

你實際上是在要求下半場與上半場。

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

Because I'm just trying -- yes, in the first half, it has been declining -- your customers -- your smartphone customers are going to migrate to 10-nanometer.

因為我只是在嘗試 - 是的，在上半年，它一直在下降 - 你的客戶 - 你的智慧型手機客戶將遷移到 10 奈米。

And I'm just trying to better understand how you're going to be able to refill 16-nanometer?

我只是想更了解你們將如何補充 16 奈米？

We have 12-nanometer, as you may know.

如您所知，我們有 12 奈米。

And 16-nanometer has the same equipment for 12-nanometer.

而16奈米也有12奈米相同的設備。

So as we start to ramp 12-nanometer later this year through to 2018, 12-nanometer can very well backfill our 16-nanometer capacity next year.

因此，當我們從今年晚些時候到 2018 年開始生產 12 奈米時，12 奈米可以很好地補充我們明年的 16 奈米產能。

Our next question today comes from the line of Patrick Liao from Macquarie.

今天我們的下一個問題來自麥格理的Patrick Liao。

Yes.

是的。

Does TSMC focus on back-end, that is InFO process, that we can anticipate some clients with demand for their needs except for Apple?

台積電是否專注於後端，也就是InFO流程，我們可以預見一些Apple以外的客戶的需求？

Patrick, please repeat your question again?

派崔克，請再重複一次你的問題好嗎？

Hello, can you hear me?

你好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you, but please repeat your question.

是的，我們可以聽到您的聲音，但請重複您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Does TSMC focus on back-end, that is InFO process, that we can anticipate some clients with demand for their needs except for Apple?

台積電是否專注於後端，也就是InFO流程，我們可以預見一些Apple以外的客戶的需求？

Well, I cannot comment on this one for a specific customer.

好吧，我無法針對特定客戶對此發表評論。

So Patrick, you are asking if we have other customers on InFO other than Apple.

Patrick，您問的是，除了 Apple 之外，我們在 InFO 上是否還有其他客戶。

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes, that's my question.

是的，是的，這就是我的問題。

We are working with many customers, but -- so again, but the high volume production for other customers, for a lot of our customers, will begin next year.

我們正在與許多客戶合作，但是，同樣，為其他客戶、為我們的許多客戶進行大批量生產將於明年開始。

Okay.

好的。

I have a minor question.

我有一個小問題。

Is 28-nanometer a breakthrough node that clients seem to have chosen high-K metal gate or Poly/SiON gate mostly?

28奈米是不是一個突破節點，客戶似乎大多選擇高K金屬柵或Poly/SiON柵？

So you are saying 28-nanometer has Poly/SiON and high-K metal gate, and then what about them?

那你說28奈米有Poly/SiON和高K金屬閘極，那它們呢？

Yes, which -- these 2 gates, which one would be chosen mostly from TSMC's experience right now?

是的，這兩個門，目前主要根據台積電的經驗選擇哪一個？

Well, the high-K metal gate version probably is the one we extended into the next node, 22-nanometer.

嗯，高 K 金屬閘極版本可能是我們擴展到下一個節點（22 奈米）的版本。

Is that answer your question?

這就是你的問題的答案嗎？

A little bit, because that some of your competitors is right now, their major focus on Poly/SiON gate.

有一點，因為您的一些競爭對手現在主要關注 Poly/SiON 閘極。

So I want to get an idea about high-K metal gate, how about the usage in your -- in TSMC's experience?

所以我想了解高 K 金屬閘極，在你們台積電的經驗中使用情況如何？

So which one do we focus more?

那我們更關注哪一個呢？

Are we focusing more on high-K metal gate or we are focusing more on Poly/SiON?

我們是更關注高 K 金屬閘極還是更關注 Poly/SiON？

Yes.

是的。

We are -- okay, we continue to improve the technology from 28-nanometer to 22.

我們——好吧，我們繼續將技術從 28 奈米改進到 22 奈米。

I can tell you that 22 is all on high-K metal gate.

我可以告訴你，22都是高K金屬柵。

Does that answer the question?

這能回答問題嗎？

Okay, okay, that answers my question.

好吧好吧，這回答了我的問題。

Thank you and now let's come back to the floor.

謝謝大家，現在讓我們回到會議現場。

The question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

問題將由摩根大通的戈庫爾提出。

First question on 7-nanometer.

關於7奈米的第一個問題。

Just wanted to get the numbers right.

只是想讓數字正確。

I think last time, Dr. Liu, you mentioned 15 tape-outs.

我想劉博士上次您提到了 15 個流片。

Right now, I think it's 30, 3-0, in terms of 7-nanometer tape-outs that you're seeing.

現在，我認為就您所看到的 7 奈米流片而言，它是 30、3-0。

Could you talk about what proportion of that is HPC?

您能談談其中 HPC 所佔的比例嗎？

Because last time you mentioned almost half of those are HPC-related products.

因為上次您提到幾乎一半是 HPC 相關產品。

It's right now, you mean, among the tape-outs?

你的意思是，現在就在磁帶輸出？

Yes, among the 30 tape-outs that you have.

是的，在您擁有的 30 個串流片中。

Still more than half.

仍然超過一半。

More than half is -- are HPC.

超過一半是 HPC。

And when you think about 7 and 7+, do you feel that when you talk to and engage with the customers, are more -- most customers basically looking at it as very easy migration or is it like there are customers who wait for 7+ or some customers who basically stay on 7 for a longer period of time?

當你想到 7 和 7+ 時，你是否覺得當你與客戶交談和互動時，更多的是——大多數客戶基本上認為這是非常容易的遷移，或者是否有客戶在等待 7+或有些顧客基本上在7停留的時間較長？

Do you expect like most of the customers eventually go to 7+ from 7?

您是否期望像大多數客戶一樣最終從 7 升級到 7+？

Yes.

是的。

Most of the customers, after we work with them, actually, they sent us the tape.

大多數客戶，在我們與他們合作之後，實際上，他們給了我們磁帶。

We ported for them for certain function blocks and proved to them it's very easy and each customer, we plan to do that and we've done several already.

我們為他們移植了某些功能塊，並向他們證明這非常容易，每個客戶我們都計劃這樣做，而且我們已經做了幾個。

Okay.

好的。

Just one other question on customer concentration.

還有一個關於客戶集中度的問題。

I think the customer concentration has been rising, I think, in the last 3, 4 years.

我認為在過去的三、四年裡，客戶集中度一直在上升。

I think it looks like this year also it will move up, given your biggest customer has a very strong product cycle.

我認為今年看起來也會上升，因為您最大的客戶擁有非常強大的產品週期。

How should we think about customer concentration when we get to 7-nanometer and 7-nanometer plus?

當我們進入7奈米和7奈米+時，我們應該如何考慮客戶集中度？

Given that the number of tape-outs seems to be much higher, do you anticipate the customer concentration to fall or is it still going to be relatively high?

鑑於流片數量似乎要高得多，您預期客戶集中度會下降還是仍會相對較高？

And maybe also try to be even maybe what is the importance of system customers within this, especially the larger leading-edge kind of process nodes?

也許還想知道系統客戶在其中的重要性是什麼，尤其是較大的前沿製程節點？

Are system customers becoming a bigger and bigger part of the customer base, especially for leading-edge?

系統客戶是否正在成為客戶群中越來越大的一部分，特別是對於領先的客戶？

Our top 10 customers account for 64% in 2015.

2015年我們的前10大客戶佔比為64%。

And that number went up to 69%, as you can see from our annual report.

正如您從我們的年度報告中看到的那樣，這個數字上升到了 69%。

This is mainly because there are consolidations among customer base.

這主要是因為客戶群之間有整合。

For this year, we expect the concentration will come down a little bit.

今年，我們預計集中度會略有下降。

But I want to say that people may feel customer concentration is not a good thing.

但我想說，人們可能會覺得客戶集中並不是一件好事。

But we feel the other way.

但我們卻有不同的感覺。

It's not really a bad thing, because when you have a bigger customer, that means the dependency for them to TSMC as the customer and for us to then as the supplier needs to be stronger, the relationship collaboration needs to be stronger, which is in favor of a foundry business model.

這並不是一件壞事，因為當你有一個更大的客戶時，這意味著他們對台積電作為客戶的依賴，而我們作為供應商需要更強，關係協作需要更強，這是在青睞代工業務模式。

So we view that as a positive thing.

所以我們認為這是一件正面的事情。

Could you also talk about system customers?

您還能談談系統客戶嗎？

How important are system customers becoming as we go from, let's say, 20/16 to 7-nanometer, given the number of tape-outs that you've got?

考慮到流片數量，當我們從 20/16 奈米過渡到 7 奈米時，系統客戶變得有多重要？

Well, to -- there are different system company, system customers.

嗯，有不同的系統公司、系統客戶。

Some customers design on their own.

有些客戶自己設計。

Some customers ask our customer to design for them.

有些客戶要求我們的客戶為他們設計。

And some customers ask our support to design, mostly using through third-party design service companies.

還有一些客戶要求我們支援設計，大多是透過第三方設計服務公司使用。

So there are different forms of the system company getting into this own design in semiconductor.

因此，有不同形式的系統公司進入自己的半導體設計領域。

We welcome that, too, because that will speed up the innovation of the chip, connecting the chip design directly with the system application.

我們也對此表示歡迎，因為這將加速晶片的創新，將晶片設計與系統應用直接連接起來。

And I think that our customer also share a part of those business to grow.

我認為我們的客戶也分享了這些業務的一部分以實現成長。

And indeed, that's a big portion of the future growth.

事實上，這是未來成長的很大一部分。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Credit Suisse, it's Randy's follow-up.

下一個問題將來自瑞信，是蘭迪的後續問題。

The first question, wanted to clarify on the 7+ and the 5. Last quarter, I think you talked about those stages at risk production and then the volume 1 year later.

第一個問題，想澄清 7+ 和 5。

Has the schedule changed and it's now you expect the revenue ramp-up in that earlier time, or is there still about 1 year from availability to the volume ramp-up?

時間表是否發生了變化，現在您預計收入會在較早的時間內增加，或者從可用性到銷量增加還有大約 1 年的時間？

Yes, we estimate it's still about a year, not really the technology on our side.

是的，我們估計還需要一年左右的時間，我們這邊的技術還不是很成熟。

It's really on their design, product qualification and system verification get to the market.

這實際上取決於他們的設計、產品認證和進入市場的系統驗證。

It typically takes that long.

通常需要那麼長時間。

Although for the mobile, it's about 1 year.

雖然對於行動裝置來說，大約有1年的時間。

Some of the high-performance computing or PC application will be shorter.

一些高效能運算或PC應用程式會更短。

So -- but that 7 and 7+, I don't see much difference in the lead time up to the volume.

所以，但是對於 7 和 7+，我認為交付量的交付時間沒有太大差異。

Okay, a follow-up to that.

好的，後續行動。

Are you seeing most customers waiting then for 7+ with EUV, given the enhancements and staying, say, with 12-nanometer?

您是否看到大多數客戶都在等待 7+ EUV，考慮到增強功能並停留在 12 奈米上？

Or do you see actually still the same fast migration from 10 to 7 next year?

或者你認為明年實際上仍然會同樣快速地從 10 遷移到 7 嗎？

Because 7 and 7+, they share same design ecosystem and the porting, so no, I don't see that.

因為 7 和 7+，它們共享相同的設計生態系統和移植，所以不，我看不到這一點。

Just one quick follow-up.

只需一個快速跟進。

Do you see potential we could actually have a bit of a lower CapEx budget, just given the 90% reuse?

您認為只要 90% 的重複使用率，我們實際上可以降低資本支出預算嗎？

Or in top of the 90%, because of the layers, there should be still pretty meaningful or similar spend next year?

或者在 90% 的頂部，由於層次的原因，明年應該仍然有相當有意義或類似的支出？

The EUV itself will not necessarily reduce the CapEx per 1,000 wafer investment because the complexity of 5-nanometer especially.

EUV 本身並不一定會降低每 1,000 片晶圓投資的資本支出，因為 5 奈米的複雜性尤其如此。

However, as we are continuing to drive the productivity, so the CapEx per 1,000 wafer go down because of that reason.

然而，隨著我們繼續提高生產力，每 1,000 片晶圓的資本支出因此而下降。

So if the 2 things offset each other, it's not necessary the EUV adoption will affect the CapEx per K too much.

因此，如果這兩件事相互抵消，那麼 EUV 的採用不一定會對每 K 資本支出產生太大影響。

Okay, just to clarify, I was talking next year where you're migrating from 10- to 7-nanometer, if you expect that tool reuse, given the common tools, that could allow, say, a lower year for CapEx, from 10 to 7, given the tool reuse?

好的，為了澄清一下，我說的是明年你將從 10 奈米遷移到 7 奈米，如果你期望工具重用，考慮到通用工具，這可能會導致資本支出從 10 奈米降低7、給出工具的複用性？

In addition to the transition from 10 to 7, we also will increase the total capacity next year.

除了從10個過渡到7個之外，我們明年還將增加總產能。

So that will compose the total CapEx.

這將構成總資本支出。

Okay.

好的。

There are still quite a few callers on the line, so let's move back to the line.

線路上仍然有不少來電者，所以讓我們回到線路上。

Operator, please have the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question on the line comes from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just wanted to get your perspective on a couple of trends in smartphones that seem quite fundamental to your business.

我只是想了解您對智慧型手機趨勢的看法，這些趨勢對您的業務似乎非常重要。

First of all, a lot of chipmakers are saying that we're going to start to see AI being processed on the phone.

首先，許多晶片製造商都表示，我們將開始看到人工智慧在手機上處理。

So we're going to see new classes of accelerators dedicated for AI in the smartphone.

因此，我們將看到專門用於智慧型手機中人工智慧的新型加速器。

Can you maybe just talk about this in more detail?

您能否更詳細地談談這個問題？

And is this something you see being produced at like 16-nanometer?

您認為這是採用 16 奈米製程生產的嗎？

Is it part of the reason why you're adding 28-nanometer capacity or is it going to be 7-nanometer?

這是您增加 28 奈米容量還是將採用 7 奈米容量的部分原因嗎？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And the second one is ARM.

第二個是ARM。

ARM are talking about material challenges with thermals in smartphone chips and application processors.

ARM 正在討論智慧型手機晶片和應用處理器中的材料挑戰。

A lot of dark silicon issues, which is leading to bigger die sizes or certainly new architectures.

許多暗矽問題，導致晶片尺寸更大，或者肯定是新的架構。

Can you maybe just give us your perspective on leading-edge die sizes for smartphones?

您能否向我們介紹一下您對智慧型手機前沿晶片尺寸的看法？

Are we going to see a rise in silicon content as a result in smartphones?

我們會看到智慧型手機中矽含量的增加嗎？

So Brett's question, first part is with respect to artificial intelligence used on phone, and he's asking what is our perspective on the direction of having new accelerators used in AI to be put on the phone, and are they going to use 16-nanometer or 28-nanometer type of process?

Brett 的問題，第一部分是關於手機上使用的人工智慧，他問我們對將人工智慧中使用的新加速器安裝到手機上的方向有何看法，他們會使用 16 奈米還是28奈米類型的製程？

And the second part is ARM commenting on material challenges, particularly with respect to thermal issues on chips.

第二部分是 ARM 對材料挑戰的評論，特別是晶片上的散熱問題。

And he's asking if we are -- we can comment on solutions like new architectures and other aspects to solve this problem.

他問我們是否可以對解決這個問題的新架構和其他方面等解決方案發表評論。

Well, I think many of those information is really our customers' confidential.

嗯，我認為其中許多資訊確實是我們客戶的機密。

So I won't -- I wouldn't want to -- I cannot talk about it.

所以我不會——我不想——我不能談論它。

But AI is indeed getting to smartphone.

但人工智慧確實正在進入智慧型手機領域。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

And that is -- actually, AI is going to every segments in our growth sectors.

事實上，人工智慧將滲透到我們成長領域的各個領域。

AI is getting to mobile.

人工智慧正在進入行動領域。

AI is getting to high-performance computing like deep learning.

人工智慧正在進入深度學習等高效能運算領域。

AI will go into automotive, which is ADAS and so forth.

AI將會進入汽車領域，例如ADAS等等。

And AI will go to simple IoT, MCU also.

人工智慧將走向簡單的物聯網，MCU 也將如此。

So this AI is a general application driver of momentum -- put this way, one of the driver -- driving momentum, and it is ubiquitous.

因此，這種人工智慧是動力的通用應用驅動因素——也就是說，驅動因素之一——驅動動力，而且它無所不在。

And I wouldn't comment on the -- I think our customers will adopt AI whenever possible and doesn't limit it to a certain technology.

我不會對此發表評論——我認為我們的客戶將盡可能採用人工智慧，並且不會將其限制於某種技術。

Brett, do you have a follow-up question or this is good enough?

布雷特，你還有後續問題嗎？

Well, I mean, just one follow-up.

嗯，我的意思是，只有一個後續行動。

I understand that AI is a ubiquitous trend.

我知道人工智慧是一個無所不在的趨勢。

But specifically, Google has talked about their next oval leaves, there's going to be accelerators coming out later this year.

但具體來說，谷歌已經談到了他們的下一個橢圓形葉子，今年稍後將會推出加速器。

I think we hear about Apple Neural Engine.

我想我們聽過 Apple Neural Engine。

There's a significant shift happening which would suggest smartphone content is going to rise for -- semiconductor content is going to rise in smartphones because of AI.

正在發生一個重大轉變，這表明智慧型手機內容將會增加——由於人工智慧，智慧型手機中的半導體內容將會增加。

And I don't know whether you see this accelerating the smartphone growth rates that you see over the next couple of years.

我不知道您是否認為這會加速未來幾年智慧型手機的成長率。

Yes, I think it will, just for the reason you just stated.

是的，我認為會的，只是出於你剛才所說的原因。

Our next question today comes from the line of Peter Chan from CIMB.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 CIMB 的 Peter Chan。

I have a question regarding the storage class memory.

我有一個關於存儲類內存的問題。

C.C. mentioned about the MRAM, RRAM earlier.

C.C.前面提到MRAM、RRAM。

Just wondering is this TSMC's answer to Intel's 3D XPoint?

只是想知道這是台積電對英特爾 3D XPoint 的回應嗎？

And how would this two help the customer to develop future applications?

這兩者將如何幫助客戶開發未來的應用程式？

And is there any difference between the MRAM and the RRAM?

MRAM 和 RRAM 有什麼不同嗎？

For example, is RRAM more suitable for, say for example, automotive; MRAM is more suitable for consumer.

例如，RRAM 是否更適合汽車等領域？ MRAM更適合消費者。

What would be the strategy of the -- in terms of application for those two?

就這兩者的應用而言，其策略為何？

When we developed emerging memories, we cooperate with the customer and due to their requirement, not specifically we are going to talk about the XPoint memory that's proposed by another company, so -- and the applications, they actually -- yes, you are right, it's mostly in automotive and also in MPU, in a lot of area.

當我們開發新興記憶體時，我們與客戶合作，並且由於他們的要求，我們將討論另一家公司提出的 XPoint 記憶體，所以 - 以及應用程序，他們實際上 - 是的，你是對的，主要是在汽車領域，也有在MPU領域，在許多領域。

Which one that customer like to adopt, that depends on their product requirements, because different product has a different kind of retention time, different kind of endurance requirement.

客戶喜歡採用哪一種，這取決於他們的產品要求，因為不同的產品有不同的保留時間，不同的耐久性要求。

So sometimes, they use RRAM, sometimes they use MRAM, and I will not comment on that.

所以有時，他們使用 RRAM，有時他們使用 MRAM，我不會對此發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

As a follow-up to that, for MRAM, RRAM, assuming that this will be offered to customer as embedded solution, and are this going to be -- do you consider these are the essential elements to address the future applications in AI?

作為後續，對於 MRAM、RRAM，假設這將作為嵌入式解決方案提供給客戶，這是否會——您認為這些是解決未來人工智慧應用的基本要素嗎？

So the question is since MRAM, RRAM are embedded solutions, are they critical to address future needs of AI?

那麼問題是，既然 MRAM、RRAM 都是嵌入式解決方案，那麼它們對於滿足 AI 的未來需求至關重要嗎？

Probably the answer is that they are very critical to every area, that whenever you need embedded memory inside, to replace or not, just to get the lower cost and lower power consumption for IoT, for automotive and Mark just mentioned that AI is everywhere.

答案可能是，它們對每個領域都非常關鍵，無論何時需要內部嵌入記憶體，無論是否更換，只是為了為物聯網、汽車獲得更低的成本和更低的功耗，馬克剛剛提到人工智慧無處不在。

So to answer your question, yes, and in a lot of applications.

所以回答你的問題，是的，並且在很多應用中都是如此。

Okay, let's come back to the floor.

好吧，讓我們回到地板上。

The next question will be coming from HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題將由匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo 提出。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups.

只需幾個快速跟進。

First on Mehdi's question, with a little 16-nanometer focus, but I guess combination 20 and 16 is about 25%, 26% of revenues.

首先是 Mehdi 的問題，稍微關註一下 16 奈米，但我猜 20 和 16 奈米的組合大約佔收入的 25%、26%。

It looks like it's down the last few quarters versus 28-nanometer being relatively steady for the last 4 to 6 quarters or so.

看起來它在過去幾個季度有所下降，而 28 奈米在過去 4 到 6 個季度左右相對穩定。

So could you quantify a little bit looking into the third quarter and the fourth quarter, do you expect growth in that 25% of revenues of that 20 and 16-nanometer node?

那麼，您能否對第三季和第四季進行一些量化，您預計 20 奈米和 16 奈米節點的 25% 收入會成長嗎？

No.

不。

We think the 20 plus 16 revenue in the following 2 quarters will come down somewhat.

我們認為未來2季20+16的營收將會下降。

It will not be as high as second quarter.

不會像第二季那麼高。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

And then on, another 25% of revenues is in your Industrial/Standard.

然後，另外 25% 的收入屬於您的工業/標準。

I'm wondering if you could just help us think a little bit more about that?

我想知道您是否可以幫助我們多思考？

How much is industrial, how much is auto, how much is -- how do you break down that quarter of the company?

工業佔多少，汽車佔多少，你如何分解公司的那個季度？

I would like to mention 3 big subsegments on that Industrial/Standard.

我想提及該工業/標準的 3 大子部分。

I think the top 3 are MCU, power IC and data converter.

我認為前三名是MCU、電源IC和數據轉換器。

They account for the majority part of the Industrial/Standard.

它們佔工業/標準的大部分。

Okay.

好的。

And then just quickly, depreciation was down a little bit quarter-on-quarter, but also you've got a ramp of a lot of expensive capacity coming.

然後很快，折舊比上一季略有下降，但大量昂貴的產能也隨之增加。

Could you talk a little bit about third quarter depreciation?

您能談談第三季的折舊嗎？

Will it grow faster than your revenue guidance, and outlook for depreciation for the full year?

它的成長速度會快於您的收入指引以及全年折舊前景嗎？

The depreciation for the whole year with the 10, about TWD 10 billion CapEx will be high teens, let's say, 17% to 18%, okay?

10年全年的折舊，大約100億新台幣的資本支出將是十幾歲左右，比如說17%到18%，好嗎？

So you can expect second half depreciation will come up faster growth than the earlier quarter.

因此，您可以預期下半年貶值將比上一季更快成長。

Okay.

好的。

Then maybe the last question for Mark or C.C. We're seeing the first 10-nanometer chips being tore down that you're producing, and massive die size shrinks, on an apples-to -- or maybe I should say like-for-like basis instead of saying apples, upwards of 40%, 50% type shrink.

那也許最後一個問題要問 Mark 或 C.C.我們看到你們正在生產的第一個 10 奈米晶片被拆除，並且晶片尺寸大幅縮小，在蘋果到——或者也許我應該說是同類的基礎上，而不是說蘋果，以上40%、50%型收縮。

So I'm curious, what does that mean from a capacity planning perspective for you?

所以我很好奇，從容量規劃的角度來看，這對您意味著什麼？

Do you need to build as much physical wafer capacity, because your customers are taking advantage of much more stronger shrinks at 10-nanometer?

您是否需要建立盡可能多的實體晶圓產能，因為您的客戶正在利用更強大的 10 奈米微縮技術？

I don't comment on customers' die size per se, whether that's -- it is going to reduce the requirement on the wafer, we ramp up quickly, and with, again, 10% revenue -- wafer revenue for the whole year.

我不會評論客戶的晶片尺寸本身，無論是——這會減少對晶圓的需求，我們會迅速增加，並且再次獲得 10% 的收入——全年晶圓收入。

So you can calculate it.

所以你可以計算一下。

Okay.

好的。

The next questions will be coming from Citigroup's Roland, Roland Shu.

接下來的問題將由花旗集團的 Roland Shu 提出。

Yes, we know AI is for everything.

是的，我們知道人工智慧適用於一切。

How about -- I think we would like to know how about the AI at TSMC?

怎麼樣——我想我們想知道台積電的人工智慧怎麼樣？

Because in your annual report, you said that you've already built a team to dedicate doing this machine learning and AI development.

因為在你們的年報中，你們說你們已經組建了一個團隊專門做這個機器學習和人工智慧的開發。

So can you share with us what's your progress for this machine learning and AI development?

那麼您能與我們分享您在機器學習和人工智慧開發方面的進展嗎？

And what can we expect once you implement your AI in your production line?

一旦您在生產線中實施人工智慧，我們可以期待什麼？

What kind of change it will be?

將會帶來怎樣的改變？

Well, we utilize the AI technology in our own manufacturing area most, so we use that one to improve the defect density, to improve the productivity and also, at the same time, to improve the quality.

那麼，我們在自己的製造領域使用人工智慧技術最多，所以我們用它來提高缺陷密度，提高生產率，同時也提高品質。

And how we did it, it's company confidential.

至於我們是如何做到的，這是公司機密。

So you've already implemented on your production line?

那麼您已經在生產線上實施了呢？

Yes, we did.

是的我們做了。

Okay.

好的。

So when you talk about that you have this efficiency improvement, actually the part of it had been achieved by this AI adoption?

那麼當你談到效率的提升時，實際上其中一部分是透過人工智慧的採用來實現的？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Second question for C.C. Last year, you spent 1 billion CapEx in InFO and you ramped up InFO revenue to USD 500 million this year.

第二個問題問 C.C.去年，您在 InFO 上花費了 10 億美元的資本支出，今年您將 InFO 收入提高了 5 億美元。

And this year again, you are going to spend 1 billion CapEx in back-end.

今年，您將再次在後端花費 10 億美元的資本支出。

So can we expect next year, we can generate another 500 million revenue on InFO and that will go back -- go up to 1 billion in total revenue next year?

那麼，我們是否可以期望明年，我們可以在 InFO 上再創造 5 億美元的收入，並且明年總收入將達到 10 億美元？

We put the CapEx for the back-end area, not 100% for InFO.

我們把資本支出放在後端領域，而不是 100% 放在 InFO 上。

Okay, we still have a CoWoS.

好吧，我們還有 CoWoS。

We still have a lot of testing.

我們還有很多測試。

So I cannot comment, say that next year what the revenue would be.

所以我無法評論明年的收入是多少。

But this year, 500 million.

但今年是5億。

So are we spending a similar amount of the CapEx in InFO this year?

那麼今年我們在 InFO 上花費的資本支出是否也有類似的金額呢？

I won't comment on that.

我不會對此發表評論。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的查理陳提出。

So for second quarter, your Industrial segment outgrowing other segments.

因此，在第二季度，您的工業部門的成長超過了其他部門。

So can you elaborate a little bit what kind of semiconductors or applications in that Industrial and others segments?

那麼能否詳細說明一下工業和其他領域的半導體或應用類型？

Well, second quarter, Industrial/Standard mostly come from MCU, power and data converter, in particular application in automotive and factory automation, those applications.

那麼，第二季度，工業/標準主要來自 MCU、電源和數據轉換器，特別是汽車和工廠自動化等應用。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

And same question is regarding your business strategy in trailing edge.

同樣的問題是關於您的後緣業務策略。

I guess this question is to C.C. So you mentioned that you want to fully utilize your fab space.

我想這個問題是問 C.C.所以你提到你想充分利用你的晶圓廠空間。

So I'm asking whether you would reduce your price regardless to get your fab to 100% utilization?

所以我問你們會不會降低價格，而不顧讓你們的晶圓廠達到 100% 的利用率？

Because no one can compete with your cost structure.

因為沒有人可以與您的成本結構競爭。

And I guess most of your trailing edge tools already fully depreciated.

我猜你們的後緣工具大部分都已經完全折舊了。

So what is right way to maximize your company's profits and shareholders' return?

那麼，怎樣才是最大化公司利潤和股東回報的正確方法呢？

Technology.

技術。

Technology, the weapon that we are using most.

技術，我們使用最多的武器。

So we've developed a lot of derivative technology to meet customers' requirement.

因此我們開發了許多衍生技術來滿足客戶的需求。

That reduced their die cost, at the same time, improved the performance.

這降低了晶片成本，同時提高了效能。

And that is where we get the business.

這就是我們獲得業務的地方。

So can I assume that you will fulfill your trailing edge capacity to 100% regardless whatever...

所以我可以假設你無論如何都能 100% 發揮你的後緣能力嗎...

That's our goal.

這就是我們的目標。

That's our goal.

這就是我們的目標。

That's your goal?

這就是你的目標？

Yes.

是的。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 提出。

Lora, what is the total capacity increase magnitude this year?

Lora，今年總產能增量是多少？

If I remember correctly, it's about 10% year-over-year.

如果我沒記錯的話，年增約10%。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is management seemed to mentioned that last year, 20% reduction in cycle time.

第二個問題是管理階層似乎提到去年周期時間減少了 20%。

So would you reduce the cycle time further this year to improve the cost structure?

那麼今年您會進一步縮短週期時間以改善成本結構嗎？

I cannot give you the specific number because that is confidential, but we'll continue to improve, that I can say.

我不能給你具體的數字，因為這是保密的，但我可以說，我們會繼續改進。

So as a follow-up question, sir.

先生，作為一個後續問題。

Do you think when you enter 7-nanometer, you will continue to reduce cycle time further?

您認為進入7奈米後，您會繼續進一步縮短週期時間嗎？

Because you mentioned 10-nanometer per layer, cycle time seems to be lower...

因為你提到每層 10 奈米，週期時間似乎更低...

Reduced.

減少。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Do you think that, that will continue to 7-nanometer?

您認為7奈米還會繼續嗎？

We definitely do, it's our goal.

我們一定會這樣做，這是我們的目標。

Yes, we have other weapons.

是的，我們還有其他武器。

Next question will be coming from CL's Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將由 CL 的 Sebastian Hou 提出。

My first question is for Mark, that do you have any committed customers or any tape-outs confirmed on N7+ right now?

我的第一個問題是問 Mark，您現在是否有任何忠誠的客戶或已在 N7+ 上確認流片？

And what type application is that?

那是什麼類型的應用程式？

Is it for mobile or for HPC?

是針對行動裝置還是針對 HPC？

That will happen in the 2018.

這將在 2018 年發生。

So it's not -- so no one is confirmed right now.

所以事實並非如此——所以現在還沒有人證實這一點。

Well, they are customer who are committed to use it, but they don't have a specific tape-out date for that.

嗯，他們是承諾使用它的客戶，但他們沒有特定的流片日期。

Most of them are working on N7 today.

他們中的大多數人現在都在開發 N7。

Okay.

好的。

So for those customers who are in -- who show their initial commitment to use it, are they coming from both mobile and HPC?

那麼，對於那些最初承諾使用它的客戶來說，他們是否來自行動和 HPC？

I think both, just like N7, particularly those leading users, yes.

我認為兩者都是，就像N7一樣，尤其是那些領先的用戶，是的。

Second question is on your high-performance computing in terms of the margin and profit impact to TSMC as a whole, that theoretically, we would think that it is for data center or for server, so it's higher-margin or difficulty to do than customer-type other products, from that perspective.

第二個問題是關於你們的高效能運算對台積電整體的利潤和利潤影響，理論上我們會認為它是針對資料中心或伺服器的，所以它的利潤或難度比客戶更高從這個角度來看，類型其他產品。

But at the same time, it's also harder to make, die size larger, so process control become more important.

但同時，它的製造難度也更大，晶片尺寸也更大，因此製程控制變得更加重要。

So what's the net-net impact in terms of the margin profitability for TSMC, from operating margin perspective?

那麼，從營業利益率的角度來看，台積電的利潤率的淨淨影響是什麼？

At this point, the net-net impact -- net-net impact is no impact to our gross margin as we estimate today.

目前，正如我們今天估計的那樣，淨淨影響對我們的毛利率沒有影響。

Okay, we still have 2 callers on the line.

好的，我們還有 2 個來電者在線上。

Operator, let's move to the next caller on the line.

接線員，讓我們接聽線路上的下一個來電者。

Next question online comes from Douglas Smith from Agency Partners.

下一個線上問題來自 Agency Partners 的 Douglas Smith。

Just to clarify on the N7+, am I correct in assuming that you're going to target 250-watt source and mask with fully working pellicle?

只是為了澄清 N7+，我是否正確假設您將針對 250 瓦光源和具有完全工作薄膜的掩模？

And do you see any potential bottlenecks in terms of either the masks or the resists for EUV for N7+?

您是否認為 N7+ 的 EUV 掩模或抗蝕劑方面存在任何潛在瓶頸？

The 250-watt still happen in the laboratory, and we don't count on that high number to do the cost reduction.

250 瓦仍然在實驗室中進行，我們並不指望如此高的數字來降低成本。

Currently, we estimate if we do well on 125, for example, it will be sufficient enough for us to make the cost reduction.

目前我們估計，比如說125如果做得好的話，就足夠我們降低成本了。

Okay.

好的。

And in terms of pellicle, do you think that's necessary or it's not necessary for N7+?

那麼在薄膜方面，您認為對於N7+來說有必要還是沒有必要？

We have very active pellicle development today and we will prepare for both.

今天我們的薄膜開發非常活躍，我們將為這兩方面做好準備。

If we have to use it, we have no problem by then.

如果我們必須使用它，那麼到那時我們就沒有問題了。

Our next question today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just a couple of follow-ups.

只是幾個後續行動。

Lora, can you please tell me how should we think about depreciation this year?

Lora，你能告訴我今年我們該如何考慮折舊嗎？

Did you say it would be up 17% to 18%?

你說會漲17%到18%嗎？

Yes.

是的。

This year's depreciation will be 17% higher than last year.

今年的折舊率將比去年高出17%。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

And then, how should we think about the capacity that is going to move to China?

那麼，我們該如何看待將要轉移到中國的產能呢？

When is the timing and how would it impact the depreciation schedule as that capacity is in transit?

時間是什麼時候？

We start to move the equipment in the second half of this year, and then we expect the production in second half of next year.

我們今年下半年開始搬設備，預計明年下半年投產。

As far as the depreciation, I don't think there's any impact at all.

至於貶值，我認為根本沒有任何影響。

Okay.

好的。

And is it -- I think in the past, you've talked about like 20,000 to 30,000 wafer per month and it's going to be mostly 12-nanometer, 16-nanometer.

我想在過去，您談到每月 20,000 到 30,000 片晶圓，其中大部分是 12 奈米、16 奈米。

Is it still the case?

現在還是這樣嗎？

We talked about 20,000 wafer per month and 16 nanometers technology.

我們討論了每月 20,000 片晶圓和 16 奈米技術。

That's what we said.

這就是我們所說的。

It continues to be the same situation.

情況仍然如此。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

And I think we have exhausted all the questions from our audience, and we are happy to draw a conclusion of our conference call now.

我認為我們已經問完了觀眾提出的所有問題，我們很高興現在可以得出電話會議的結論。

Thank you, everybody, for attending.

謝謝大家的出席。

And we'll look forward to see you next quarter.

我們期待下個季度見到您。