台積電 ADR (TSM) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2016 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2016 年第三季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us via the conference call, your dial-in number are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入號碼處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO Ms. Lora Ho will summarize our operations in the third quarter of 2016, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2016.

第一台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在2016年第三季度的運營情況，隨後是我們對2016年第四季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's two Presidents and Co-CEOs Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei and Ms. Ho will jointly provide our key messages.

之後，台積電的兩位總裁兼聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei 和 Ho 女士將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO Ms. Lora Ho for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在我想把講台交給台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以獲得運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the third quarter, followed by the guidance for the fourth quarter.

我的演講將從第三季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第四季度的指導。

We have just finished another strong quarter.

我們剛剛完成了另一個強勁的季度。

Despite a less favorable foreign exchange rate, our third quarter revenue increased 17% sequentially to TWD260 billion, exceeding the high end of our guidance given in July, due to the strong demand in overall smartphone market.

儘管匯率不利，但由於整體智能手機市場的強勁需求，我們第三季度的收入環比增長 17% 至 2600 億新台幣，超過了我們在 7 月份給出的指導的高端。

Gross margin declined 0.8 percentage point sequentially to 50.7% mainly due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and the margin dilution from higher 16-nanometer contribution, partially balanced by a higher utilization rate and cost improvement.

毛利率環比下降 0.8 個百分點至 50.7%，主要是由於不利的外匯匯率和較高的 16 納米貢獻造成的利潤率稀釋，部分被較高的利用率和成本改善所平衡。

R&D expense continued to increase, reflecting a high level of development activities for 7-nanometer.

研發費用持續增加，反映了 7 納米的高水平開發活動。

Since our revenue grew faster than R&D expense, total operating expense to revenues was 9.9%.

由於我們的收入增長快於研發費用，總運營費用佔收入的比例為 9.9%。

Operating margin was 40.8% in the third quarter.

第三季度的營業利潤率為 40.8%。

Overall, our third quarter earnings per share reached TWD3.73, a 33% increase Q over Q and a 28% year over year and ROE for the third quarter was 31.2%.

總體而言，我們第三季度每股收益達到 TWD3.73，Q 比 Q 增長 33%，同比增長 28%，第三季度 ROE 為 31.2%。

Now let's take a look at the revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們看一下應用程序的收入貢獻。

Our third quarter business benefited from the new mobile product launches as well as the robust overall smartphone demand.

我們第三季度的業務受益於新移動產品的推出以及強勁的整體智能手機需求。

Revenue increased across the board in all product segments.

所有產品領域的收入全面增長。

Communications and industrial/standard increased by 19% and 16% respectively, while computer and consumer also increased by 3% and 8% respectively.

通信和工業/標準分別增長了 19% 和 16%，而計算機和消費類產品也分別增長了 3% 和 8%。

In terms of revenue by technology, combined revenue from 16 and 20-nanometer continued to grow and represented 31% of wafer revenue in the third quarter compared to 23% in the second quarter.

就技術收入而言，16 納米和 20 納米的總收入繼續增長，佔第三季度晶圓收入的 31%，而第二季度為 23%。

Meanwhile, our 28-nanometer capacity remained fully utilized and represented 24% of our wafer revenue in the third quarter.

與此同時，我們的 28 納米產能仍然得到充分利用，占我們第三季度晶圓收入的 24%。

Moving on to balance sheet, we ended the [third](corrected by company after the call) quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD517 billion which is TWD151 billion lower than the second quarter.

繼續看資產負債表，我們以現金和有價證券 5,170 億新台幣（比第二季度減少 1,510 億新台幣）結束了[第三]（由公司在電話會議後更正）季度。

That was as a result of TWD156 billion of cash dividend payment in July.

這是由於 7 月份支付了 1560 億新台幣的現金股息。

Correspondingly, current liabilities decreased by TWD141 billion.

相應地，流動負債減少了1410億新台幣。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 1 day to 42 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 1 天至 42 天。

Days of inventory decreased by 10 days to 44 days mainly due to reduction in work in progress as a result of stronger wafer shipment and an improving cycle time on advanced nodes.

庫存天數減少 10 天至 44 天，主要是由於晶圓出貨量增加和先進節點的周期時間縮短導致在製品減少。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the third quarter we generated TWD126 billion from operations, spent TWD104 billion in capital expenditure, paid out TWD156 billion in cash dividend and repaid TWD12 billion of corporate bonds.

第三季度，我們從運營中創造了1260億新台幣，花費了1040億新台幣的資本支出，支付了1560億新台幣的現金股息，並償還了120億新台幣的公司債券。

Our overall cash balance decreased TWD158 billion to TWD464 billion at the end of the third quarter.

第三季度末，我們的整體現金餘額減少了 1,580 億新台幣至 4,640 億新台幣。

In US dollar terms, the capital expenditure spent in the first three quarters of 2016 totaled $6.7 billion.

以美元計，2016年前三季度的資本支出總額為67億美元。

Our full-year CapEx budget is now expected to be slightly above $9.5 billion, which is at the low end of our guidance.

我們的全年資本支出預算現在預計將略高於 95 億美元，處於我們指導的低端。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to the fourth quarter outlook.

現在讓我們轉向第四季度的展望。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD31.50, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be between TWD255 billion and TWD258 billion which represents 1% to 2% sequential decline, gross profit margin to be between 50.5% and 52.5%, and operating margin to be between 40% and 42%.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌 31.50 新台幣的匯率假設，我們預計第四季度收入將在 2,550 億新台幣至 2,580 億新台幣之間，環比下降 1% 至 2%，毛利率在 50.5% 至 52.5 之間%，營業利潤率在 40% 到 42% 之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn the podium to Mark for his comments.

現在我想把講台轉給馬克聽他的評論。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I would like to start delivering our key messages.

我想開始傳遞我們的關鍵信息。

Let me start from our near-term outlook.

讓我從我們的近期展望開始。

We concluded our third quarter with 17% quarter-to-quarter and 22% year-to-year revenue growth.

我們在第三季度結束時實現了 17% 的季度環比和 22% 的同比收入增長。

This strong growth was driven by our major customer's new mobile product launch and a stronger than seasonal growth from our other customers.

這一強勁增長是由我們的主要客戶推出的新移動產品以及我們其他客戶的強勁增長推動的。

In the third quarter we gained our foundry market share across most technology nodes.

在第三季度，我們在大多數技術節點上獲得了代工市場份額。

With strong sell-through we estimate fabless DOI exiting the third quarter will be only slightly above seasonal level.

由於銷售強勁，我們估計第三季度退出的無晶圓廠 DOI 將僅略高於季節性水平。

We saw the smartphone sales improving coming into second half this year.

我們看到今年下半年智能手機銷量有所改善。

High-end smartphone demand today is better than we previously expected.

今天的高端智能手機需求好於我們之前的預期。

The 4G Plus deployment in China and the 4G upgrade in emerging markets also drive end demand.

中國的 4G Plus 部署和新興市場的 4G 升級也推動了終端需求。

PC gaming and the TV gaming markets driven by product refresh are showing good growth.

由產品更新驅動的 PC 遊戲和電視遊戲市場呈現出良好的增長勢頭。

Also deep learning is increasingly applied to many diversified areas.

深度學習也越來越多地應用於許多不同的領域。

So we forecast our fourth quarter revenue to be about flat from the third quarter.

因此，我們預測我們第四季度的收入將與第三季度持平。

The demand for high-end smartphone will continue to improve.

高端智能手機的需求將繼續改善。

We estimate the year-end inventory reduction will be relatively mild.

我們估計年末庫存減少將相對溫和。

So exiting 2016, the fabless DOI will be slightly higher than seasonal level by about 2 days.

因此，從 2016 年開始，無晶圓廠 DOI 將略高於季節性水平約 2 天。

For the whole year of 2016 we forecast semiconductor market revenue, excluding memory, will have 1% growth, foundry revenue will have 7% growth, and TSMC revenue will achieve 10% growth in US dollars and 11% to 12% in NT dollars.

2016年全年半導體市場營收（不含內存）增長1%，晶圓代工營收增長7%，台積電營收增長10%，新台幣增長11%~12%。

Now I come to the leading-edge technology status and competition.

現在我來到了領先的技術地位和競爭。

First on 7-nanometer, our 7-nanometer technology development is well on track.

首先是 7 納米，我們的 7 納米技術開發進展順利。

The progress of yield improvement and device performance development are both on schedule.

良率提升和器件性能開發均按計劃進行。

We are confident our 7-nanometer technology to be ahead of our competition.

我們有信心我們的 7 納米技術將領先於我們的競爭對手。

Our plan of risk production qualification in 1Q 2017 remains unchanged.

我們 2017 年第一季度的風險生產資格計劃保持不變。

Our 7-nanometer has been adopted not only by high-end mobile consumers -- customers, but also by high-performance computing customers for GPU, gaming, PC and tablet, virtual reality, server, FPGA, automotive and networking applications.

我們的 7 納米不僅被高端移動消費者——客戶採用，而且被用於 GPU、遊戲、PC 和平板電腦、虛擬現實、服務器、FPGA、汽車和網絡應用的高性能計算客戶採用。

They all have aggressive product tapeout plans, starting from early second quarter 2017.

從 2017 年第二季度初開始，他們都有積極的產品流片計劃。

So we expect work on silicon qualification of more than 15 customer product tapeouts in 2017.

因此，我們預計 2017 年將有超過 15 個客戶產品流片的矽認證工作。

Now on 5-nanometer, since the beginning of this year, our 5-nanometer technology has graduated from pathfinding to enter technology development phase.

現在在5納米上，從今年開始，我們的5納米技術已經從尋路階段畢業，進入技術開發階段。

Recently, our EUV technology development made good progress.

最近，我們的EUV技術開發取得了不錯的進展。

The throughput and reliability of EUV scanners, the sensitivity of EUV photoresist, and the quality of EUV mask blank and the pellicles all improved.

EUV 掃描儀的吞吐量和可靠性、EUV 光刻膠的靈敏度以及 EUV 掩模空白和薄膜的質量都得到了提高。

Of course there's still a way to go.

當然，還有一段路要走。

We will use EUV lithography extensively in our 5-nanometer flow to improve density, simplify process steps and reduce cost.

我們將在我們的 5 納米流程中廣泛使用 EUV 光刻技術，以提高密度、簡化工藝步驟並降低成本。

Our plan of risk production qualification in first half 2019 remains unchanged.

2019年上半年風險生產資質計劃不變。

Now I want to report to you about our growth platforms.

現在我想向您報告我們的增長平台。

I will report to you our first two growth platforms.

我將向您報告我們的前兩個增長平台。

The first is mobile platforms.

首先是移動平台。

We believe mobile will continue to be a growth driver for TSMC in the next few years.

我們相信移動將在未來幾年繼續成為台積電的增長動力。

We forecast worldwide smartphone unit growth rate be at mid single digit in the next five years.

我們預計未來五年全球智能手機銷量增長率將處於中個位數。

The silicon content of smartphone will continue to increase, driven by increasing smartphone features such as dual camera, security sensing, AR/VR and migration to 4G, 4G+ and 5G, particularly in high-end smartphones.

受雙攝像頭、安全感應、AR/VR 等智能手機功能的增加以及向 4G、4G+ 和 5G 遷移的推動，智能手機的矽含量將繼續增加，尤其是在高端智能手機中。

Those high-end smartphone features will also proliferate to mid and low-end smartphones.

這些高端智能手機功能也將擴散到中低端智能手機。

There are other smartphone features yet to be seen.

還有其他智能手機功能還有待觀察。

For example, deep learning for AI inference will also increase smartphone silicon content in the next five years.

例如，人工智能推理的深度學習也將在未來五年內增加智能手機芯片的含量。

More high-performance processor will be used for context-aware applications and provide new user experience.

更多高性能處理器將用於上下文感知應用程序並提供新的用戶體驗。

For this mobile platform we will complete developing 7-nanometer in 2017, upgrade 7-nanometer in 2018 and complete developing 5-nanometer in 2019 to support smartphone and high-end mobile products on an annual cadence.

對於這個移動平台，我們將在 2017 年完成 7 納米的開發，2018 年升級 7 納米，並在 2019 年完成 5 納米的開發，以支持智能手機和高端移動產品的年度節奏。

For mid to low-end mobile and wearable products we will continuously offer cost-reduction technologies with 28HPC+, 16FFC and its derivative technologies.

對於中低端移動和可穿戴產品，我們將持續提供28HPC+、16FFC及其衍生技術的降本技術。

Included on our mobile platform there are TSMC's highly innovative and differentiated InFO advanced packaging for low power and small form factor.

我們的移動平台包括台積電高度創新和差異化的 InFO 先進封裝，適用於低功耗和小尺寸。

We also offer our next-generation CIS technology, RF technology, SOI RF front-end, power management IC, fingerprint, near-field communication and various MEMS sensor technologies in this mobile innovation platform.

我們還在這個移動創新平台中提供我們的下一代 CIS 技術、RF 技術、SOI 射頻前端、電源管理 IC、指紋、近場通信和各種 MEMS 傳感器技術。

We believe we are in -- we are very well positioned to grow in this mobile market in the next few years.

我們相信我們在——我們非常有能力在未來幾年在這個移動市場增長。

Now I turn to high-performance computing platform.

現在我轉向高性能計算平台。

In addition to mobile, we have also identified high-performance computing as another area of growth.

除了移動，我們還將高性能計算確定為另一個增長領域。

In the trend of digital world, more and more devices are connected and more and more data are generated, collected, filtered, processed and analyzed at all levels, at local, in the network as well as in the cloud.

在數字世界的趨勢下，越來越多的設備被連接起來，越來越多的數據在本地、網絡和雲端的各個層面產生、收集、過濾、處理和分析。

This trend calls for more pervasive silicon processers for those computing nodes.

這一趨勢要求這些計算節點使用更普遍的矽處理器。

Recently, deep learning market calls for new levels of parallelism and new levels of compute efficiency from our customers.

最近，深度學習市場要求我們的客戶提供更高水平的並行性和更高水平的計算效率。

These rapid development of artificial intelligence technology allowing machine ability to see, hear and predict has huge implication in many industry verticals like healthcare, media, consumer, automotive and so forth.

人工智能技術的這些快速發展使機器能夠看到、聽到和預測，這對許多垂直行業（如醫療保健、媒體、消費者、汽車等）產生了巨大的影響。

The silicon content to support AI applications I think will be huge.

我認為支持人工智能應用程序的矽含量將是巨大的。

We forecast the total wafer revenue opportunities, excluding memory, in this market segment could reach more than $15 billion in five years.

我們預測，不包括內存在內，該細分市場的晶圓總收入機會在五年內可能達到 150 億美元以上。

To capture these opportunities, we offer optimized 7-nanometer in 2017 and optimized 5-nanometer in 2019 in TSMC's high-performance platform.

為了抓住這些機會，我們在 2017 年提供優化的 7 納米，並在 2019 年在台積電的高性能平台中提供優化的 5 納米。

These technology offers include high-performance standard cell library, optimized metal interconnect and optimized EDA design flows for high-performance computing design.

這些技術提供包括用於高性能計算設計的高性能標准單元庫、優化的金屬互連和優化的 EDA 設計流程。

On our advanced packaging side, we will continue to offer 2.5D and 3D IC integration solutions, in addition to the current CoWoS as part of our high-performance computing platform.

在我們的先進封裝方面，除了作為我們高性能計算平台一部分的當前 CoWoS 之外，我們將繼續提供 2.5D 和 3D IC 集成解決方案。

They will support increased memory bandwidth for low-power, high-performance computation.

它們將支持增加內存帶寬以實現低功耗、高性能計算。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

I turn the microphone to C.C. Wei.

我把麥克風轉到 C.C.魏。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Let me start with 10-nanometer status.

讓我從 10 納米狀態開始。

We have transferred our 10-nanometer from R&D to production in third quarter this year.

今年第三季度，我們已將 10 納米從研發轉移到生產。

Our first 10-nanometer customer product has been produced with reasonable yield.

我們的第一個 10 納米客戶產品已經以合理的良率生產出來。

Defect density and device performance continue to improve in much the same way as we did at the ramp-up stage of every leading edge technology node.

缺陷密度和設備性能以與我們在每個前沿技術節點的加速階段大致相同的方式繼續改進。

So far we have received five production tapeouts for high-end mobile products.

到目前為止，我們已經收到了五個高端移動產品的生產流片。

We are preparing capacity for 10-nanometer production ramp up by the end of this year and expect shipment in first quarter next year.

我們正準備在今年年底前提高 10 納米產能，預計明年第一季度出貨。

Currently, there are about 2,500 engineers and 1,200 technicians that are working in the fabs on 10-nanometer.

目前，大約有 2,500 名工程師和 1,200 名技術人員在 10 納米晶圓廠工作。

Additional 1,000 engineer and 500 technicians will be added to our 10-nanometer production team by the end of this year for the preparation of volume ramp in 2017.

到今年年底，我們的 10 納米生產團隊將增加 1,000 名工程師和 500 名技術人員，為 2017 年的量產做準備。

As to our 16-nanometer FinFET, the defect density and cycle time continue to improve and are very competitive.

對於我們的 16 納米 FinFET，缺陷密度和周期時間不斷提高，並且非常具有競爭力。

In addition to mobile application processor, other applications such as cellular baseband, graphic processor for video game, AR/VR, deep learning and AI have strongly adopted our 16-nanometer solutions.

除移動應用處理器外，蜂窩基帶、視頻遊戲圖形處理器、AR/VR、深度學習和人工智能等其他應用都強烈採用了我們的 16 納米解決方案。

As a result, our 16-nanometer business this year is expected to become more than five-fold of this level compared to last year.

因此，我們今年的 16 納米業務預計將比去年增加五倍以上。

In order to support the applications for mid to low-end smartphone and wearable products, we continue to work with customers to further shrink the die size while improving the performance in 16FFC.

為了支持中低端智能手機和可穿戴產品的應用，我們繼續與客戶合作，進一步縮小裸片尺寸，同時提高 16FFC 的性能。

Now on 28-nanometer, the demand for our 28-nanometer technologies has continued to be strong throughout this year and is expected to last through many years.

現在在 28 納米上，對我們 28 納米技術的需求在今年全年持續強勁，預計將持續多年。

So we are judiciously adding some bottleneck tools to meet the strong demand.

因此，我們明智地添加了一些瓶頸工具來滿足強勁的需求。

Applications related to mid and low-end smartphones as well as the WiFi, digital TV, set-top box, flash controller and others has found TSMC's 28-nanometer a desirable solution.

與中低端智能手機以及 WiFi、數字電視、機頂盒、閃存控制器等相關的應用發現台積電的 28 納米是理想的解決方案。

With our differentiated technology, stable yield, shorter cycle time and large capacity, we have been very competitive in this node and are confident to maintain our market segment share for this node.

憑藉我們的差異化技術、穩定的良率、更短的周期時間和大容量，我們在這個節點上一直很有競爭力，並且有信心在這個節點上保持我們的細分市場份額。

All the nodes from 28-nanometer all the way to 0.35 micron and even to 1 or 2 micron technology has been an important contributor to TSMC's profitability.

從 28 納米一直到 0.35 微米甚至到 1 或 2 微米技術的所有節點一直是台積電盈利能力的重要貢獻者。

We developed a broad portfolio of logic-based specialty technologies such as the CMOS image sensor, embedded flash, power management IC, fingerprint sensor, and MEMS to backfill our legacy logic capacity which is converted into these specialty technologies.

我們開發了廣泛的基於邏輯的專業技術組合，例如 CMOS 圖像傳感器、嵌入式閃存、電源管理 IC、指紋傳感器和 MEMS，以回填我們轉換為這些專業技術的傳統邏輯能力。

And we continue to earn good margin from this business.

我們繼續從這項業務中獲得可觀的利潤。

Today we have more than 8 million 12-inch equivalent wafer annual capacity from these older nodes.

今天，我們有超過 800 萬片 12 英寸等效晶圓的年產能來自這些舊節點。

We believe this is by far the industry's largest capacity on those older nodes.

我們相信這是迄今為止業界在這些舊節點上最大的容量。

Now let me talk about one of our growth platform, automotive.

現在讓我談談我們的增長平台之一，汽車。

There are many new applications being developed in automotive industry such as ADAS, night-vision, smart and green energy, electrical vehicles etc.

汽車行業正在開發許多新的應用，例如 ADAS、夜視、智能和綠色能源、電動汽車等。

We believe those new applications will trigger or have triggered the new opportunities and requirements on semiconductor industry.

我們相信這些新的應用將觸發或已經觸發半導體行業的新機遇和新要求。

For example, inside a car there will be a lot of sensors to collect environmental information, RF devices to connect with the outside world, more video displays, etc.

例如，車內會有很多傳感器收集環境信息、射頻設備與外界連接、更多的視頻顯示器等。

The car also need a very powerful MCU or many powerful MCU to analyze data for better safety and functionality.

汽車還需要一個非常強大的 MCU 或許多強大的 MCU 來分析數據，以獲得更好的安全性和功能。

TSMC has been working with customer to develop necessary technology to capture those opportunities.

台積電一直在與客戶合作開發必要的技術來抓住這些機會。

Today we offer a broad range of technologies including advanced logic, embedded flash, CMOS image sensor, MEMS, and BCD to serve customers' need.

今天，我們提供廣泛的技術，包括高級邏輯、嵌入式閃存、CMOS 圖像傳感器、MEMS 和 BCD，以滿足客戶的需求。

In addition to technology offer, we also put a lot of effort on quality and reliability for automotive platform.

除了技術提供，我們還為汽車平台的質量和可靠性付出了很多努力。

For example, in Q3 this year we started to provide ISO 26262 compliant IPs for 16FFC for automotive ecosystem.

例如，在今年第三季度，我們開始為汽車生態系統的 16FFC 提供符合 ISO 26262 的 IP。

With our manufacturing excellence, which has been demonstrated in high-volume production with stable yield, and the broad range of technologies, we are ready to serve this growing market.

憑藉我們在產量穩定的大批量生產中所證明的卓越製造能力以及廣泛的技術，我們已準備好服務於這個不斷增長的市場。

We estimate the total market of automotive-related ICs, measured in wafer value excluding memory was about $4 billion in 2015 and about $6 billion by 2020.

我們估計，2015 年汽車相關 IC 的總市場（以不包括內存的晶圓價值衡量）約為 40 億美元，到 2020 年約為 60 億美元。

We expect our wafer business from automotive-related ICs will more than double from 2015 to 2020.

我們預計，從 2015 年到 2020 年，我們來自汽車相關 IC 的晶圓業務將增加一倍以上。

Now let me talk about IoT.

現在讓我談談物聯網。

IoT is another growth area we have identified.

物聯網是我們確定的另一個增長領域。

This market is fragmented with diversified products.

這個市場分散，產品多樣化。

We estimate the total market of IoT-related ICs, again measured in wafer value excluding memory, was about $2 billion in 2015 and expected to reach about $6 billion in 2020.

我們估計物聯網相關 IC 的總市場（再次以不包括內存的晶圓價值衡量）在 2015 年約為 20 億美元，預計到 2020 年將達到約 60 億美元。

For those IoT products, we have focused our efforts on providing ultra low-power technologies.

對於這些物聯網產品，我們一直致力於提供超低功耗技術。

For example, we offer 55-nanometer, 40-nanometer ultra-low power for low- to mid-performance IoT products, and 28 ultra low-power and 16FFC for high-performance applications.

例如，我們為中低性能物聯網產品提供 55 納米、40 納米超低功耗，為高性能應用提供 28 種超低功耗和 16FFC。

Furthermore, we also integrate the ultra low-power RF, embedded flash as well as sensor solutions such as CMOS image sensor and MEMS, to enable machine-to-machine or human-to-machine interface.

此外，我們還集成了超低功耗 RF、嵌入式閃存以及 CMOS 圖像傳感器和 MEMS 等傳感器解決方案，以實現機器對機器或人機交互。

With our broad range of low power technologies and specialty technologies we believe we are well positioned to capture the growth opportunity in the IoT market.

憑藉我們廣泛的低功耗技術和專業技術，我們相信我們能夠很好地抓住物聯網市場的增長機會。

And we expect to grow our IoT business at a faster pace than the overall IoT market in the next few years.

我們預計未來幾年物聯網業務的增長速度將超過整個物聯網市場。

Now I will talk about InFO.

現在我將談談 InFO。

TSMC's InFO has been in volume production since second quarter this year.

台積電的InFO從今年第二季度開始量產。

Currently, there are more than 2,000 engineers and technicians working in our Longtan site for InFO production.

目前，有2000多名工程師和技術人員在我們的龍潭基地從事InFO生產。

While we are confident that InFO will contribute more than $100 million revenue to us in fourth quarter this year, we continue our effort on cost reduction and yield improvement, also with good result.

雖然我們有信心 InFO 在今年第四季度為我們貢獻超過 1 億美元的收入，但我們繼續努力降低成本和提高產量，也取得了不錯的成績。

More customers have engaged with us on the InFO technologies for the purpose of enhancing their product performance.

越來越多的客戶與我們就 InFO 技術進行了合作，以提高他們的產品性能。

Major application is still in mobile product.

主要應用仍是移動產品。

We are now qualifying for the next-generation InFO technology.

我們現在有資格使用下一代 InFO 技術。

A few hundred more engineers are expected to be added to our Longtan site when we begin our next-generation InFO production in year 2017.

當我們在 2017 年開始生產下一代 InFO 時，預計將再增加數百名工程師到我們的龍潭工廠。

Now let me talk about the Nanjing project.

現在讓我談談南京項目。

Our Nanjing project was announced last December.

我們的南京項目於去年12月宣布。

It includes a wholly-owned 12-inch wafer manufacturing facility and a design service center for the purpose of providing closer support to our customers in China and to further extend our business opportunities.

它包括一個全資擁有的12英寸晶圓製造設施和一個設計服務中心，旨在為我們在中國的客戶提供更緊密的支持並進一步擴大我們的業務機會。

We broke ground for the fab in early July.

我們在 7 月初為這座晶圓廠破土動工。

The production is expected to start in second half 2018 with 16-nanometer.

預計 16 納米的生產將於 2018 年下半年開始。

We believe it will be the most advanced fab producing 16-products in China at that time.

我們相信它將成為當時中國最先進的生產16種產品的工廠。

Our design service center in Nanjing has already started functioning with more than 50 engineers now and expect to grow to about 100 by next year.

我們在南京的設計服務中心已經開始運作，現在有50多名工程師，預計到明年將增長到100人左右。

We expect this design center will greatly help our customers in China to shorten their learning cycle and speed up their new product introduction to the market.

我們期望這個設計中心將極大地幫助我們在中國的客戶縮短他們的學習週期，加快他們的新產品推向市場。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Now I'll turn the podium to Lora.

現在，我將把領獎台交給勞拉。

I would like to make a few comments on capital expenditure, profitability and dividends.

我想就資本支出、盈利能力和股息發表一些評論。

The first regarding CapEx.

第一個關於資本支出。

TSMC's 2016 capital budget is estimated to be slightly above $9.5 billion, which is closer to our low end of our guidance.

台積電 2016 年的資本預算估計略高於 95 億美元，接近我們指引的低端。

We have guided $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion three months ago.

三個月前，我們指導了 95 億至 105 億美元。

It is mainly due to improving cycle time estimated for 10-nanometer; we are able to shorten the lead time for capacity installation, which leads to a reduction of our 2016 estimated CapEx.

這主要是由於改進了 10 納米的估計週期時間；我們能夠縮短產能安裝的前置時間，從而降低我們 2016 年估計的資本支出。

However, this reduction in 2016 will not change our planned capacity for 10-nanometer in 2017.

然而，2016 年的這一減少不會改變我們 2017 年 10 納米的計劃產能。

Our estimate for the capital intensity going forward remains unchanged at around low to mid 30% level for the next few years.

我們對未來幾年的資本密集度的估計保持在 30% 左右的低至中等水平。

I will talk about profitability.

我將談論盈利能力。

In the past few years, despite the higher CapEx which leads to a substantial increase in depreciation expenses, we have been able improve our structural profitability significantly.

在過去幾年中，儘管較高的資本支出導致折舊費用大幅增加，但我們能夠顯著提高我們的結構盈利能力。

We plan to keep our structural profitability at a high level by continually working on price, cost and utilization rate with careful planning of capacity.

我們計劃通過仔細規劃產能，不斷研究價格、成本和利用率，將我們的結構性盈利能力保持在高水平。

Going forward, we expect to be able to maintain our gross margin rate at close to 50% level.

展望未來，我們預計能夠將毛利率維持在接近 50% 的水平。

My last comment is about the dividend.

我的最後一條評論是關於股息的。

Given our target revenue growth rate for the 2016 to 2020 five-year period to be compounded annual growth of between 5% and 10%, and our capital intensity to stay at low to mid 30% of our revenue, we anticipate an improving free cash flow after debt service in the next few years.

鑑於我們 2016 年至 2020 年五年期間的目標收入增長率為 5% 至 10% 的複合年增長率，以及我們的資本密集度保持在收入的 30% 的中低水平，我們預計自由現金將有所改善未來幾年償債後的流動。

Therefore, we also expect our dividend per share to increase in the next few years.

因此，我們也預計我們的每股股息將在未來幾年增加。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制為兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate that into English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star then one on your telephone keypad now.

對於那些正在通話的人，如果您想提出問題，請立即按電話鍵盤上的星號。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press the pound or the hash key.

如果您想在任何時候將自己從提問隊列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now let's begin the question and answer session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

First person to raise their hand is Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

第一個舉手的是德意志銀行，Michael Chou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question is regarding the 16-nanometer UTR next year.

我的第一個問題是關於明年的 16 納米 UTR。

Given that your key customer may shift to 10-nanometer next year for high-end products, so what is your expectation for UTR next year in 16-nanometer?

鑑於您的主要客戶明年可能會轉向 10 納米的高端產品，那麼您對明年 16 納米的 UTR 有何期望？

For UTR, actually you are asking for the 16-nanometer business next year.

對於 UTR，實際上您要求明年的 16 納米業務。

Actually there are some mid and low-end smartphone who are entering into this node.

實際上有一些中低端智能手機正在進入這個節點。

So, so far so good.

所以，到目前為止一切順利。

So does that mean you will have a similar UTR level next year versus this year?

那麼這是否意味著明年與今年的 UTR 水平相似？

Roughly.

大致。

Roughly.

大致。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Second question is regarding your 28-nanometer market share next year.

第二個問題是關於你明年的 28 納米市場份額。

Do you expect it to be still very dominant next year versus this year, given rising competition from the other foundries?

鑑於來自其他代工廠的競爭日益激烈，您是否預計明年與今年相比它仍將佔據主導地位？

I just mentioned that we are confident to maintain the market segment share, so yes.

我剛剛提到我們有信心保持細分市場份額，所以是的。

A follow-up question for 28-nanometer, do you expect tier-two foundries can gain market share in high-K/metal gate area more substantially next year, because given that it seems that UMC may try to increase high-K/metal gate shipment next year?

28納米的後續問題，您是否預計二級代工廠明年可以在高K /金屬柵極領域獲得更大的市場份額，因為鑑於聯電似乎可能會嘗試增加高K /金屬明年門口出貨？

Could you please repeat your question on high-K/metal gate.

您能否在高 K/金屬門上重複您的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Given that UMC may try to increase high-K/metal gate shipment next year, so how do you have a high market share in 28-nanometer next year?

鑑於聯電明年可能會嘗試增加高K/金屬柵極出貨量，那麼明年28納米的市場份額如何？

I just mentioned that lot of customer find our solutions very desirable.

我剛剛提到很多客戶認為我們的解決方案非常可取。

And so, again I would like to say that we are confident to maintain our market segment share.

因此，我再次想說，我們有信心保持我們的細分市場份額。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

You gave us some good figures on the growth drivers in new areas.

你給了我們一些關於新領域增長動力的好數據。

Traditionally, IDMs have had a lot of market share in high-performance computing, automotive and even microcontroller and IoT.

傳統上，IDM 在高性能計算、汽車甚至微控制器和物聯網領域擁有大量市場份額。

Your foundry share is 55%.

你的代工份額是 55%。

If you could give some approximation what you expect your share in these where you put HPC $15 billion, auto about $6 billion, IoT growing to $6 billion.

如果你能給出一些近似值，你期望你在這些方面的份額，你投入 HPC 150 億美元，汽車大約 60 億美元，物聯網增長到 60 億美元。

Like if could you talk about what your market share in these traditionally IDM applications.

就像您能否談談您在這些傳統 IDM 應用程序中的市場份額。

On the high performance computing, I cited $15 billion next five years.

在高性能計算方面，我提到了未來五年的 150 億美元。

It's really a rough estimate.

這真的是一個粗略的估計。

Many of the application we cannot really grasp today, like artificial intelligence.

我們今天無法真正掌握的許多應用程序，例如人工智能。

We don't know how fast and in what form it will grow.

我們不知道它將以多快和以何種形式增長。

So this is based on current knowledge.

所以這是基於當前的知識。

And we've been -- indeed this high-performance computing include data center, network, storage and all the silicon attached with the data center.

我們一直——事實上，這種高性能計算包括數據中心、網絡、存儲和所有與數據中心相連的芯片。

And also include AR and VR and gaming and that's our definition, not including artificial intelligence yet.

還包括 AR、VR 和遊戲，這是我們的定義，還不包括人工智能。

Today, in this sector, we have about 30% share.

今天，在這個領域，我們擁有大約 30% 的份額。

Of course we want to grow with the total segment and we also want to increase our share, together with other IDMs.

當然，我們希望與整個細分市場一起增長，我們也希望與其他 IDM 一起增加我們的份額。

And could you talk about the automotive, what the contribution -- well, you talked about doubling the revenue.

你能談談汽車，貢獻是什麼——嗯，你談到了收入翻倍。

If you could give a starting point for market share in automotive?

您能否給出汽車市場份額的起點？

We are working on this automotive platform across all the technology nodes actually.

實際上，我們正在跨所有技術節點開發這個汽車平台。

So we expect to grow this area much faster than the market showed.

因此，我們預計該領域的增長速度將比市場顯示的快得多。

Today, most of our product is on the MCUs.

今天，我們的大部分產品都在 MCU 上。

And we expect that going into a lot of high-speed computation, just like Mark pointed out, and also a lot of sensors will come with it.

正如馬克指出的那樣，我們預計會進行大量高速計算，並且還會附帶大量傳感器。

And so we expect to grow the market.

因此，我們希望擴大市場。

So I don't know if that whether I answered your question on the automotive?

所以我不知道我是否回答了你關於汽車的問題？

Or if you could give how much automotive is today for TSMC, as a percentage of revenues?

或者，如果你能給出台積電今天的汽車收入佔收入的百分比？

She just gave me some hint.

她只是給了我一些提示。

It's below $1 billion.

低於 10 億美元。

My second question about the margins where you're guiding a little bit down in sales, but the margins are improving.

我的第二個問題是關於你引導銷售的利潤率略有下降，但利潤率正在提高。

And it looks like for next year, if I caught it right, it was 49% to 50%, but it's moved up a bit to 50%.

看起來明年，如果我沒看錯的話，它是 49% 到 50%，但它已經上升到了 50%。

You talked some on cycle time, it's a factor from cycle time improvement.

您談到了周期時間，這是周期時間改進的一個因素。

If you could talk about what strides you're making on the cycle time or if there's other factors driving that margin improvement?

如果你能談談你在周期時間上取得了哪些進展，或者是否有其他因素推動了利潤率的提高？

Cycle time, when I referred to the CapEx I was talking about cycle time improvement actually help the capital to be more efficient.

週期時間，當我提到資本支出時，我在談論周期時間改進實際上有助於提高資本效率。

That's why we can spend less money but you get the same capacity investment.

這就是為什麼我們可以花更少的錢，但您獲得相同的容量投資。

Of course, cycle time helps yield as well.

當然，週期時間也有助於產量。

So that means when you start production then the yield can reach to optimal sooner, of course that will help the margin as well.

因此，這意味著當您開始生產時，產量可以更快地達到最佳狀態，當然這也有助於提高利潤率。

You were talking about the 2017.

你說的是2017年。

In my prepared message, I was talking about our effort on structural profitability improvement, our confidence on maintaining 50% level.

在我準備好的信息中，我談到了我們為提高結構性盈利能力所做的努力，以及我們對保持 50% 水平的信心。

Given this year's depreciation is only increased a little bit, and our CapEx is very much back-end loaded as you can see first half only about 30% and second half maybe 70%, so we expect the margin will -- we expect depreciation will go up next year.

鑑於今年的折舊只增加了一點點，而且我們的資本支出在後端負載很大，因為你可以看到上半年只有 30% 左右，下半年可能是 70%，所以我們預計利潤率將——我們預計折舊將明年漲。

Although I cannot quantify the number because we are still working on a CapEx number for next year, so but with all those plus and minus reasons, we are still confident that the margin will be close to 50%.

雖然我無法量化這個數字，因為我們仍在研究明年的資本支出數字，但考慮到所有這些正負原因，我們仍然相信利潤率將接近 50%。

Just one quick follow up, on the fourth quarter you have a couple of headwinds from currency and utilization, I guess, slightly lower.

只需快速跟進，在第四季度，您會遇到來自貨幣和利用率的一些不利因素，我猜會略低。

So just the improvement sequentially, is that from a 16-nanometer yield learning or if there's a factor that's offsetting that to drive the improvement in fourth quarter?

所以只是順序的改進，是來自 16 納米良率的學習，還是有一個因素抵消了第四季度的改進？

16-nanometer will be a key reason because you know we are ramping very fast in 16-nanometer.

16 納米將是一個關鍵原因，因為您知道我們在 16 納米方面的發展速度非常快。

In 16-nanometer it's the second year of production.

在 16 納米中，這是生產的第二年。

I think you still remember you asked me, when can the 16-nanometer reach the corporate level?

我想你還記得你問我，16納米甚麼時候可以達到企業級？

We expect the 16-nanometer it will reach the corporate level by first quarter 2017.

我們預計 16 納米將在 2017 年第一季度達到企業級。

So fourth quarter is very close to that corporate level.

因此，第四季度非常接近該公司水平。

So that really helps our margin rate.

所以這確實有助於我們的保證金率。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Next our questions will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

接下來我們的問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Last quarter we thought the customers are probably going to adjusting inventory in 4Q but looking at your 4Q guidance now, it seems that customers are actually still building the inventory.

上個季度，我們認為客戶可能會在 4 季度調整庫存，但現在查看您的 4 季度指導，似乎客戶實際上仍在建立庫存。

So will this inventory correction be delayed to first quarter next year and we are going to see a sub-seasonal first quarter next year?

那麼，這種庫存調整是否會推遲到明年第一季度，而我們明年第一季度會出現次季的情況嗎？

I mentioned -- Our estimate fourth quarter will be flat.

我提到過——我們估計第四季度將持平。

It's because the -- we see the end market demand is still healthy and therefore we also estimate the previously anticipated inventory reduction at the end of the fourth quarter will be mild.

這是因為 - 我們看到終端市場需求仍然健康，因此我們還估計先前預期的第四季度末庫存減少將是溫和的。

This -- also supported by our major customers' 16-nanometer ramp.

這也得到了我們主要客戶的 16 納米坡道的支持。

So that supports the fourth quarter results.

因此，這支持了第四季度的結果。

So I think this -- the end of this year is more peaceful than previous years.

所以我認為今年年底比往年更加平靜。

Okay, so that means that inventory correction probably won't be the case in first quarter next year?

好的，這意味著明年第一季度可能不會出現庫存調整？

Right.

正確的。

But the fourth quarter -- I don't think there's a major inventory adjustment in the fourth quarter either of general customers.

但是第四季度——我認為普通客戶在第四季度都不會出現重大的庫存調整。

But there are seasonalities.

但是有季節性。

There are seasonalities that is not -- we cannot avoid it.

有些季節性因素不是——我們無法避免。

And particularly the big customers' seasonality.

尤其是大客戶的季節性。

That is the -- I think the only factor that affects the fourth quarter.

那是 - 我認為影響第四季度的唯一因素。

But many things can still happen between now and then.

但是從現在到那時，許多事情仍然可能發生。

So right now it's too early to tell.

所以現在說還為時過早。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

My second question is from different angle.

我的第二個問題是從不同的角度。

Intel is licensing ARM's physical IP for 14- and the 10-nanometer process manufacturing.

英特爾正在許可 ARM 的物理 IP 用於 14 和 10 納米工藝製造。

I know you don't comment your customer and the competitors directly.

我知道您不會直接評論您的客戶和競爭對手。

However, from the industry and from technical perspective, how do you think the impact to the overall foundry and that impacts to TSMC going forward?

但是，從行業和技術的角度來看，您如何看待這對整個代工的影響以及對台積電未來的影響？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well, I think that strengthens the ARM-based CPU in the processing world.

嗯，我認為這加強了處理領域中基於 ARM 的 CPU。

And we have traditionally very strong in ARM-based ecosystem.

我們傳統上在基於 ARM 的生態系統中非常強大。

As -not just the ARM and also many architectural license people.

不僅是 ARM，還有許多架構許可人員。

So it's proof that this, in order to get to the non-data-center world this is the ecosystem you're going to ride.

所以這證明了，為了進入非數據中心的世界，這是你要騎的生態系統。

How much threat?

有多大的威脅？

We don't know -- we, of course we never underestimate our competitions.

我們不知道——我們當然永遠不會低估我們的競爭對手。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的比爾·盧。

Hi there.

你好呀。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

First question is a follow-up on HPC.

第一個問題是對 HPC 的跟進。

Mark said that this business becomes more than $15 billion by 2020.

馬克說，到 2020 年，這項業務將超過 150 億美元。

Can you talk a little bit more about the different segments of HPC and what do you think are the big opportunities within that $15 billion?

您能否多談談 HPC 的不同部分，您認為這 150 億美元中的重大機遇是什麼？

Secondly, when I talk to your customers, it seems like a lot of people think that you need 7-nanometers for this to take off.

其次，當我與您的客戶交談時，似乎很多人認為您需要 7 納米才能實現這一目標。

So this is maybe hockey-sticking after 7-nanometers.

所以這可能是 7 納米之後的曲棍球堅持。

I'm wondering if you would agree with that -- what is the linearity of that business?

我想知道您是否同意這一點——該業務的線性度是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

You -- first part you ask what is the component of HPC?

你——第一部分你問什麼是 HPC 的組件？

Well, it includes many things associated with the data center.

嗯，它包括許多與數據中心相關的東西。

It includes the network processors and also includes the switches.

它包括網絡處理器，還包括交換機。

And in our domain we include gaming and VR and AR and so forth.

在我們的領域中，我們包括遊戲、VR 和 AR 等等。

So for those market we are in a good position.

因此，對於這些市場，我們處於有利地位。

However, for data center we are trying to get into a good position.

但是，對於數據中心，我們正試圖進入一個好的位置。

Yes, indeed we see our growth -- we expect our growth momentum will shift from high -- from mobile to high performance computing around 2019.

是的，我們確實看到了我們的增長——我們預計我們的增長勢頭將在 2019 年左右從移動轉向高性能計算。

So that's the ballpark estimate.

這就是大致的估計。

It will depend on our 70 -- 7-nanometer, but also there are many other processors.

這將取決於我們的 70 - 7 納米，但也有許多其他處理器。

There are many other processors that are still using 10-nanometer, still using 16-nanometer.

還有許多其他處理器仍在使用 10 納米，仍在使用 16 納米。

And even 28-nanometer in this high performance computing sector.

在這個高性能計算領域甚至是 28 納米。

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear.

如果我不清楚，我很抱歉。

I appreciate the answer but I'm just wondering, within HPC if you can look at -- of the things that you talked about -- data centers and switches, etc., VR, AR -- how big is each or maybe you can rank them in terms of the opportunity?

我很欣賞這個答案，但我只是想知道，在 HPC 中，你是否可以查看 - 你談到的東西 - 數據中心和交換機等，VR、AR - 每個有多大，或者你可以根據機會對他們進行排名？

Oh boy.

好傢伙。

I haven't bring it with me.

我沒有隨身攜帶。

So -- but this is -- these are the industry models.

所以 - 但這是 - 這些是行業模型。

They're existing industry models, you can estimate.

它們是現有的行業模型，你可以估計。

It's not very special.

這不是很特別。

Not particularly TSMC's secret.

不是特別是台積電的秘密。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My second question is on packaging.

我的第二個問題是關於包裝的。

I think roughly maybe about a year ago maybe a little bit more, you talked about InFO being about TWD100 million by fourth quarter of this year with a gross margin below corporate average.

我想大約一年前可能會更多一些，您談到今年第四季度的 InFO 約為 1 億新台幣，毛利率低於公司平均水平。

If we now look into second half of 2017 can you give us the same kind of forecast with InFO and CoWoS both in terms of revenue opportunity and margins?

如果我們現在展望 2017 年下半年，您能否在收入機會和利潤率方面給我們提供與 InFO 和 CoWoS 相同的預測？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well, I cannot predict that 2017 second half, but I can tell you that revenue will be greater.

好吧，我無法預測 2017 年下半年，但我可以告訴你，收入會更大。

Margin will be better.

保證金會更好。

That's actually a very happy answer.

這實際上是一個非常令人高興的答案。

Let's go to the line now.

我們現在就去排隊吧。

Operator, please have the caller on the line.

接線員，請讓來電者在線。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of Donald Lu from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Donald Lu。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Oh, hi.

啊，你好。

My first question is can you comment on your silicon content for smartphones for this year and next year?

我的第一個問題是你能評論一下你今年和明年的智能手機矽含量嗎？

And if you can specify low end and high end as before that will be good.

如果您可以像以前一樣指定低端和高端，那就太好了。

The second question is on your 10-nanometer yield ramp.

第二個問題是關於你的 10 納米產量斜坡。

Is the progress within expectation or is that a little better or worse?

進展是否在預期之內，還是更好或更糟？

And also I think you commented that the shipment for the first product will start in 20 -- Q1 next year.

而且我認為你評論說第一款產品的發貨將於明年 20 年第一季度開始。

And maybe you can specify whether early Q1 or later Q1?

也許您可以指定是 Q1 早期還是 Q1 後期？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay, first of all, I have to inform everybody the caller is from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

好的，首先，我必須通知大家，來電者來自高盛，唐納德·盧。

And Donald, your first question is about smartphones -- average silicon content of a smartphone, right?

唐納德，你的第一個問題是關於智能手機的——智能手機的平均矽含量，對吧？

Yes, and also high end, low end, if you can separate the two?

是的，還有高端，低端，如果你能把兩者分開？

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

You want the breakdown between high end, low end and medium end?

您想要區分高端、低端和中端嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And the next --

接下來——

And your second question is with respect to 10-nanometers in terms of the yield as well as the projected shipment of 10-nanometer next year by quarter?

您的第二個問題是關於 10 納米的產量以及明年按季度預計 10 納米的出貨量？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

All right, Donald.

好吧，唐納德。

I will try to answer the first part of your question regarding the silicon content.

我將嘗試回答您關於矽含量的問題的第一部分。

If we look at the revenue per box on a smartphone, we have seen the dollar per box actually continue to increase and 2015, 2016 a slight increase.

如果我們看一下智能手機每盒的收入，我們會發現每盒的美元實際上繼續增加，2015 年、2016 年略有增加。

We expect the content will continue to increase in 2017 with weighted average about $10 per box -- for us.

我們預計內容將在 2017 年繼續增加，加權平均約為每盒 10 美元——對我們而言。

So this is especially on the high end part.

所以這尤其是在高端部分。

That's where the increase coming from for us.

這就是我們的增長來源。

So I remember the average content this year is about TWD8 per phone?

所以我記得今年平均每部手機的內容大約是TWD8？

And you've been talking about $10 next year?

你一直在談論明年的 10 美元？

No, this year is more than $9.

不，今年超過 9 美元。

Same for last year.

去年也一樣。

We expect the dollar will go up to about $10 next year.

我們預計明年美元將升至 10 美元左右。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Second question was with respect to 10-nanometer, the yield.

第二個問題是關於 10 納米的成品率。

(Multiple speakers).

（多個揚聲器）。

The 10-nanometer yield ramp -- whether it's within expectation similar to 16-nanometer or it's more challenging -- yes.

10 納米的良率提升——無論是在與 16 納米相似的預期範圍內，還是更具挑戰性——是的。

It is similar.

這是相似的。

It's similar.

這是相似的。

But of course the 10-nanometer is much tougher than the 16-nanometer FinFET that -- as compared with the one year ago.

但當然，與一年前相比，10 納米比 16 納米 FinFET 更堅固。

Got it.

知道了。

And also you commented that you'll enter volume production.

您還評論說您將進入批量生產。

The volume product tape-out will start in early next year, Q1 next year, is that the guidance?

明年初開始量產，明年Q1，是這樣的指導嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We start production at the end of this year but the wafer will be out in the first quarter and enter into the volume production after that.

我們在今年年底開始生產，但晶圓將在第一季度推出，之後將進入量產階段。

Okay, so the volume production tape-out will start in Q4 this year?

好的，那麼今年第四季度將開始量產流片？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

We can have the next caller on the line operator, please.

我們可以在線路接線員上接下一位來電者，拜託。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

My first question on 7-nanometer -- can you maybe talk about how many customers are committed?

我關於 7 納米的第一個問題——你能談談有多少客戶承諾了嗎？

I know you talked about tape-outs for next year, but how many customers in total are committed to 7-nanometer?

我知道您談到了明年的流片，但總共有多少客戶致力於 7 納米？

And if you plan to convert your 10-nanometer capacity to 7-nanometer over time, do you think your peak capacity of 7-nanometer will be higher than 28-nanometer?

如果你計劃隨著時間的推移將你的 10 納米容量轉換為 7 納米，你認為你的 7 納米的峰值容量會高於 28 納米嗎？

All right, I will repeat Brett's questions.

好吧，我會重複布雷特的問題。

I think he's asking us about 7-nanometer first -- how many customers do we have at 7-nanometers -- total.

我認為他首先是在問我們關於 7 納米的問題——我們在 7 納米方面有多少客戶——總共有多少。

And then if we will convert some capacity eventually of 10-nanometer to 7-nanometer, will we be able to generate 7-nanometer business, eventually, bigger than 28-nanometer business?

然後，如果我們最終將部分產能從 10 納米轉換為 7 納米，我們是否能夠產生 7 納米業務，最終大於 28 納米業務？

7-nanometer wafers -- yes.

7 納米晶圓——是的。

Wafer capacity.

晶圓容量。

And 7-nanometers capacity.

以及 7 納米的容量。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

7-nanometer customer are many.

7納米的客戶很多。

I don't remember how many, but more than 20.

我不記得有多少，但超過20個。

Many of them are working on their tape-out next year as well as 2018.

他們中的許多人都在為明年和 2018 年的流片工作。

7 -- we expect the 7-nanometer business to -- of course will be larger than 28-nanometer.

7 - 我們預計 7 納米業務 - 當然會大於 28 納米。

Capacity-wise we don't -- it could be comparable.

容量方面我們沒有——它可以是可比的。

It could be -- it really depends on the later on customers' product launch how successful they will be.

可能是——這真的取決於後來客戶的產品發布他們會有多成功。

But we are planning probably within -- it's comparable within the range.

但我們可能正在計劃 - 它在該範圍內具有可比性。

There's no significantly drop capacity-wise.

容量方面沒有明顯下降。

So in that terms the business will be much bigger, in dollar sense.

因此，從美元的角度來看，業務將變得更大。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And second question was on the Nanjing fab in China.

第二個問題是關於中國南京工廠的。

Is that going to be TSMC moving existing capacity from Taiwan to China or will this be incremental capacity you're adding with Nanjing?

是台積電將現有產能從台灣轉移到中國，還是您在南京增加產能？

All right, the question is with respect to our Nanjing fab.

好吧，問題是關於我們南京工廠的。

Brett is asking whether we'll be using our existing capacity from Taiwan to be used in Nanjing, or will it be incremental capacity?

Brett 在問我們是否會利用台灣現有的產能在南京使用，還是增量產能？

The majority of the capacity will be moving from Taiwan fab to Nanjing.

大部分產能將從台灣工廠轉移到南京。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, let's come back to the floor.

好的，讓我們回到地板上。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie -- Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理——陳查理。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

My question is also on 7-nanometer.

我的問題也是關於 7 納米的。

It sounds like customers' demand are very strong for 7-nanometer and you just mentioned that the 10-nanometer cycle time is shorter than your expectation.

聽起來客戶對 7 納米的需求非常強烈，而您剛剛提到 10 納米的周期時間比您的預期要短。

So is it possible you can bring in the mass production timing of 7-nanometer to so called the later 2017?

那麼是否有可能將 7 納米的量產時間引入所謂的 2017 年後期？

If your risk production in 1Q next year will be smooth Thanks.

如果你明年一季度的風險生產會順利，謝謝。

I hope our preparation can be ahead of schedule, which we're working on to ensure our customer, when they do the product launch they get more matured condition.

我希望我們的準備工作能夠提前，我們正在努力確保我們的客戶在產品發佈時能夠獲得更成熟的狀態。

However, if you're asking we're pulling the ramp that will be affected by many factors.

但是，如果您要問我們正在拉動會受到許多因素影響的坡道。

It depends on their product launch timing.

這取決於他們的產品發佈時間。

And nor do we want to produce much inventory either.

我們也不想生產太多庫存。

So that is a business decision rather than a technical decision.

所以這是一個商業決策，而不是技術決策。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

And also on 7-nanometer, so do you expect customers' number or tape-out number to be more than 16-nanometer?

並且在 7 納米上，您是否期望客戶數量或流片數量超過 16 納米？

I mean because 7-nanometer cost could be much higher than 16-nanometer.

我的意思是因為 7 納米的成本可能遠高於 16 納米。

So when you communicate with your customer, how will they justify the higher cost in terms of photo mask, wafer price, IP costs, etc.

因此，當您與客戶溝通時，他們將如何證明在光掩模、晶圓價格、IP 成本等方面的更高成本是合理的？

Right now it's hard.

現在很難。

What I cited that customer number really is at this point those customer already working with us on 7-nanometer.

我引用的客戶數量實際上是那些已經在 7 納米技術上與我們合作的客戶。

Okay, it's by no means the total number of customers.

好吧，這絕不是客戶總數。

As any node, when technology gets mature there are many, many smaller customers or more innovative other, new companies which come on board.

與任何節點一樣，當技術成熟時，會有許多小客戶或更具創新性的其他新公司加入。

So if you look at the 16-nanometer, they're quite a bigger number than what I tell you on 7-nanometer.

所以如果你看看 16 納米，它們比我告訴你的 7 納米要大得多。

But as time goes on, I believe 7-nanometer customer will continually increase.

但隨著時間的推移，相信7納米的客戶會不斷增加。

One is in addition to the mobile application I expect high performance application -- VR, AR, artificial intelligence application -- will come -- added to our customer portfolio -- product portfolio.

一個是除了移動應用程序之外，我預計高性能應用程序——VR、AR、人工智能應用程序——將會出現——添加到我們的客戶組合中——產品組合。

And that is the reason we see in one way the entry barrier is higher, so less customers can get into but the application of that technology will be wider than before.

這就是我們看到進入壁壘更高的原因，因此可以進入的客戶更少，但該技術的應用將比以前更廣泛。

So that is what I -- what we see.

這就是我——我們所看到的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So lastly, very quick on the third quarter revenue, I guess the question is to Lora.

所以最後，第三季度的收入很快，我想問題是勞拉。

So I just want to clarify, do you think the revenue upside third quarter mainly coming from the 20-nanometer or 16-nanometer?

所以我想澄清一下，你認為第三季度的收入增長主要來自 20 納米還是 16 納米？

Because you mentioned that the margin dilution comes from 16-nanometers so it seems to imply the upside coming from 16-nanometer in third quarter.

因為您提到利潤稀釋來自 16 納米，所以這似乎暗示第三季度來自 16 納米的上行空間。

Actually the third quarter revenue is supported by smartphone growth.

實際上，第三季度的收入受到智能手機增長的支持。

When I say smartphone, it's more than 16-nanometer.

當我說智能手機時，它超過了 16 納米。

Of course it includes 16-nanometer -- but also the companion chip that goes along to support smartphone.

當然，它包括 16 納米——但也包括支持智能手機的配套芯片。

Okay, so it's smartphone demand across different nodes?

好的，那麼這是跨不同節點的智能手機需求？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

All right.

好的。

The next question will be coming from JP Morgan's Gokul Hariharan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question is on HPC.

我的第一個問題是關於 HPC。

I think you provided a rough estimate of $15 billion wafer revenue in five years.

我認為您提供了五年內 150 億美元晶圓收入的粗略估計。

Just to get some granularity on that, is that the total market demand, including IDM, fabless, everything, or does it just be foundry opportunity within that market?

只是為了獲得一些細節，是整個市場需求，包括 IDM、無晶圓廠、一切，還是只是該市場內的代工機會？

Because as you mentioned, some of the segments have very dominant IDM players.

因為正如您所提到的，某些細分市場擁有非常占主導地位的 IDM 玩家。

Some of them, like GPU, are a lot more fabless.

其中一些，比如 GPU，更無晶圓廠。

What I cited are the wafer revenue in terms of foundry revenue.

我引用的是晶圓代工收入方面的收入。

But we -- many of our customer -- fabless customer wants to get into that market and any product can be foundried, by the way, okay?

但是我們——我們的許多客戶——無晶圓廠的客戶想要進入那個市場，順便說一句，任何產品都可以代工，好嗎？

So we just play together in that sector.

所以我們只是在那個領域一起玩。

That's all.

就這樣。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

So would you say that server is still a big portion of that opportunity?

那麼你會說服務器仍然是這個機會的很大一部分嗎？

Or you're not including the server opportunity which is predominantly IDM in that $15 billion.

或者您不包括在這 150 億美元中主要是 IDM 的服務器機會。

Server is included in that opportunity.

服務器包含在該機會中。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Second question is on 7-nanometer.

第二個問題是關於 7 納米的。

I think you mentioned about 15 customer tape-outs already ready for next year.

我想你提到了大約 15 個客戶已經準備好明年的流片。

Are there a significant number of HPC-related tape-outs there, or the starting tape-outs are mostly high end mobile in that 7-nanometer?

那裡是否有大量與 HPC 相關的流片，或者開始的流片大多是 7 納米的高端移動設備？

There are a significant number of HPC products -- tape-outs.

有大量 HPC 產品——流片。

But in terms of volume it will be high -- mobile product volume will be much higher in the beginning.

但就數量而言，它會很高——移動產品的數量在開始時會高得多。

And maybe, last one, I think you had mentioned 10-nanometer you'll have more than 70% market share.

也許，最後一個，我認為你提到了 10 納米，你將擁有超過 70% 的市場份額。

Any rough thoughts in 7-nanometer, is it going to be 90% to 95%.

7 納米的任何粗略想法，是否會達到 90% 到 95%。

Any early thoughts on how you think about 7-nanometer market share?

關於您如何看待 7 納米市場份額的任何早期想法？

High.

高的。

We'd say high.

我們會說高。

Higher than 10-nanometer.

高於 10 納米。

We want to do every nanometer higher than the previous one.

我們希望每納米都比前一個納米高。

Fair enough.

很公平。

The next question will be coming from Credit Lyonnais, Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將來自里昂信貸銀行，塞巴斯蒂安侯。

Thank you, Dr. Sun.

謝謝你，孫博士。

My first question is on the packaging business.

我的第一個問題是關於包裝業務。

So InFO and CoWoS.

所以 InFO 和 CoWoS。

Did I understand correctly that the TSMC will take full responsibility for packaging of logic and memory and my question is how to split the yield issues of memory with the memory partner?

我是否理解正確，台積電將全權負責邏輯和內存的封裝，我的問題是如何將內存的良率問題與內存合作夥伴分開？

And as this part of the business continues to grow in terms of revenue percentage and dollar amounts and how do you expect this to -- will this increase the business risk for you and how do you see that impact your risk, yield and profitability?

隨著這部分業務在收入百分比和美元金額方面繼續增長，您如何預期這會增加您的業務風險，您認為這會如何影響您的風險、收益和盈利能力？

To answer your question, no, we don't take full responsibility, as you said on the memory portion.

要回答你的問題，不，我們不承擔全部責任，正如你在記憶部分所說的那樣。

Memory we will work with the memory supplier but it's mainly their responsibility to make it reliable and fully functional and can be cooperative into InFo technology.

內存我們將與內存供應商合作，但主要是他們的責任是使其可靠和功能齊全，並且可以與 InFo 技術合作。

But we don't take the full responsibility, as you just mentioned.

但正如你剛才提到的，我們不承擔全部責任。

Okay.

好的。

I think my question is -- sorry, I should have asked more clearly.

我想我的問題是——對不起，我應該問得更清楚。

So my question is, when the packaging -- for example the fail -- the yield rate is not good but you have to be responsible for that cost including the memory cost, right?

所以我的問題是，當封裝——例如失敗——良率不好但你必須負責包括內存成本在內的成本，對嗎？

Oh.

哦。

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

Once a part fail, which we don't expect too often, of course -- once the part fail we trace it back.

當然，一旦某個部件出現故障，我們並不期望太頻繁——一旦部件出現故障，我們就會追溯它。

We work with the customer identify whose responsibility it is.

我們與客戶一起確定誰的責任。

Okay.

好的。

So the yield rate is -- (inaudible) the yield rate problem is led by your memory partners and that cost will be attributed to them but not you?

所以良率是——（聽不清）良率問題是由您的內存合作夥伴主導的，而成本將歸咎於他們，而不是您？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And my second question is a very simple one.

我的第二個問題是一個非常簡單的問題。

Just I noticed that your 0.11-micron and 0.13-micron revenue increased quite a lot in terms of quarter on- quarter and year on year in the third quarter.

只是我注意到你的 0.11 微米和 0.13 微米的收入在第三季度環比和同比增長了很多。

Can you give us some hints and colors on what type of application and products are that?

你能給我們一些關於那是什麼類型的應用程序和產品的提示和顏色嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

On 0.11-micron and 0.13-micron we, as I mentioned, we developed some specialty technologies and so I give you -- yes, the one or major reason probably is some of the Power Management IC.

正如我所提到的，在 0.11 微米和 0.13 微米上，我們開發了一些專業技術，所以我告訴你——是的，一個或主要原因可能是一些電源管理 IC。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題將來自 Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

Good morning -- sorry, good afternoon.

早上好——對不起，下午好。

My first question is I think Lora was talking about your revenue CAGR in the next -- well, three years to five years will be 5% to 10% per annum.

我的第一個問題是，我認為 Lora 是在談論您接下來的收入複合年增長率——嗯，三年到五年將是每年 5% 到 10%。

I wonder if you could give us some ballpark number.

我想知道你能不能給我們一些大概的數字。

If I want to break it down on the incremental revenue increase across the board with your four demand drivers like you include HPC, mobile, auto and IoT, could you give us some idea the contribution from each category?

如果我想通過包括 HPC、移動、汽車和物聯網在內的四個需求驅動因素來全面分析收入的增量增長，您能否告訴我們每個類別的貢獻？

I cannot.

我不能。

I think Mark said last quarter in the five-year timeframe half of our growth will come from the mobile field and about a quarter for high performance computing area.

我認為馬克在上個季度說過，在五年時間框架內，我們一半的增長將來自移動領域，大約四分之一來自高性能計算領域。

And the other quarter will be from IoT.

另一季度將來自物聯網。

That's the ballpark I think.

這就是我認為的球場。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

All right.

好的。

The second question is I think this year your revenue growth is going to be pretty strong based on your 5% to 10% guidance.

第二個問題是，根據你 5% 到 10% 的指導，我認為今年你的收入增長將非常強勁。

And that also increase the comparison base for next year.

這也增加了明年的比較基數。

So if I want to ask for some color about your next year's growth it's going to be a 5% to 10% range, would you be -- would that be closer to the lower end or higher end?

所以，如果我想問一些關於你明年增長的顏色，它將是 5% 到 10% 的範圍，你會 - 更接近低端還是高端？

I will not comment 2017 growth at this moment.

我現在不會評論 2017 年的增長。

You can just follow our indications.

您可以按照我們的指示進行操作。

We still believe in the five years to 10 years compound annual growth rate will be between 5% to 10%.

我們仍然相信5年到10年的年復合增長率會在5%到10%之間。

Of course, some year will be higher.

當然，有些年份會更高。

Some year will be lower.

有些年份會更低。

But this is our goal -- to drive the compound growth rate 5% to 10%.

但這是我們的目標——推動複合增長率 5% 到 10%。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

I think we will need to go to the line first before we come back to the floor for the follow-up questions.

我認為我們需要先去排隊，然後再回到現場回答後續問題。

Operator, could you please have the next caller on the line please?

接線員，請您讓下一個呼叫者在線嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo from HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes, just a couple of clarifications first.

是的，首先澄清一下。

Your China revenue -- despite total Company revenue being up so much, your China revenue in dollars was down pretty significantly.

你在中國的收入——儘管公司總收入增長了很多，但你在中國的美元收入卻大幅下降。

It seems to happen every third quarter, but I guess I'm surprised, given some of the strength that we've seen in China smartphone.

它似乎每第三季度發生一次，但考慮到我們在中國智能手機中看到的一些實力，我想我很驚訝。

Maybe you can comment a little bit about what's going on in China, what you're seeing there and thoughts for the fourth quarter.

也許你可以評論一下中國正在發生的事情，你在那裡看到了什麼以及對第四季度的想法。

And then the second clarification question that I had was just on gross margins.

然後我的第二個澄清問題只是關於毛利率。

You had said that around 50% for next year.

你說過明年大約是 50%。

I'm curious if that's more of a full-year number or when I think about it on a quarterly basis -- can you talk a little bit about seasonality in large customers, rising depreciation?

我很好奇這更多的是全年數字還是當我按季度考慮時 - 你能談談大客戶的季節性，貶值上升嗎？

I know in the past you've smoothed it a little bit as well in the first half by starting wafers.

我知道過去你在上半場也通過啟動晶圓稍微平滑了它。

I guess I'm worried a bit about first half next year gross margins.

我想我有點擔心明年上半年的毛利率。

Can they also still be close to 50% in a seasonally soft period?

在季節性疲軟時期，它們還能接近 50% 嗎？

Those were my two clarification questions.

這是我的兩個澄清問題。

Steven, you talk so fast it's even beyond me.

史蒂文，你說得太快了，甚至超出了我的範圍。

So I really -- I haven't caught your first question quite well, but I think the second question you want us to explain about gross margins for next year, right?

所以我真的 - 我沒有很好地理解你的第一個問題，但我認為你希望我們解釋關於明年毛利率的第二個問題，對嗎？

Primarily during the seasonally soft period so in the first half of the year, can your gross margins still sustain about 50% as you had suggested, I think, for the full year?

主要是在季節性疲軟時期，所以在今年上半年，您的毛利率是否仍能像您建議的那樣全年維持在 50% 左右？

Are you asking about 2017?

你問的是2017年嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yeah.

是的。

2000 --?

2000——？

Correct.

正確的。

First half next year and a seasonally softer period, can gross margin sustain 50%?

明年上半年和季節性疲軟時期，毛利率能否維持 50%？

I will not particularly comment on quarter gross margin outlook but if you hear what I said earlier, in the longer term we intend to keep it about 50%.

我不會特別評論季度毛利率前景，但如果你聽到我之前所說的話，從長遠來看，我們打算將其保持在 50% 左右。

Of course, some quarters depending on the seasonality and utilization may swing a little bit.

當然，根據季節性和利用率，某些季度可能會略有波動。

And we have the 10-nanometer which will be dilution to our margin as it comes on.

我們有 10 納米，隨著它的出現，我們的利潤將被稀釋。

But over and over I think 50% -- about 50% is probably good direction.

但我一遍又一遍地認為 50%——大約 50% 可能是好的方向。

Okay, let me just jump to my last longer-term question.

好的，讓我跳到我的最後一個長期問題。

Midway through the third quarter one of your competitors now, Intel, seems to have rebuild their foundry effort.

在第三季度中期，您現在的競爭對手之一英特爾似乎已經重建了他們的代工工作。

TSMC's been under attack many times in the -- over the years and you guys have done a great job with your scale, your tech leadership, existing relationships, your customer agnosticism, if you will.

多年來，台積電多次受到攻擊，你們在規模、技術領導力、現有關係、客戶不可知論方面做得很好，如果你願意的話。

But I'm just curious -- is there anything different this time with some of the competitive threats out there?

但我只是好奇——這次有一些競爭威脅有什麼不同嗎？

Are you hearing any differences from a customer perspective, or even from just a competitive perspective on pricing or incentives -- or just the general specmanship that's going on right now?

您是否從客戶的角度，甚至從定價或激勵的競爭角度——或者只是目前正在發生的一般規格方面聽到任何差異？

Any thoughts on competitive landscape this time around?

這次對競爭格局有什麼想法嗎？

Steven, can you speak slower?

史蒂文，你能說慢點嗎？

Because really, the bandwidth is very narrow, so only part of the spectrum was received.

因為真的，帶寬很窄，所以只能接收到部分頻譜。

Maybe it's my (multiple speakers)

也許是我的（多位發言者）

Maybe I can summarize your very long question.

也許我可以總結一下你很長的問題。

You are just asking, what's the impact to TSMC if Intel becomes very serious about foundry, right?

你只是問，如果英特爾對代工非常認真，對台積電有什麼影響，對吧？

Well, they certainly have threatened in the last 90 days with a greater level of intensity.

好吧，在過去的 90 天裡，他們肯定以更大的強度受到威脅。

And so I'm curious if anything's different from a competitive landscape perspective this time around.

所以我很好奇這次從競爭格局的角度來看是否有什麼不同。

In the past you have done a great job fighting off competition.

在過去，你在對抗競爭方面做得很好。

Do you see anything different this time around?

這一次你看到什麼不同了嗎？

We intend to do a great job going to the future too.

我們也打算在未來做得很好。

Okay, fair enough, guys.

好吧，很公平，伙計們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Okay, follow-up question first come from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的，後續問題首先來自瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Last year there was CapEx savings where the mobile products migrated 20-nanometer to 16-nanometer and there was capacity conversion.

去年，移動產品從 20 納米遷移到 16 納米並進行了容量轉換，從而節省了資本支出。

Could you talk about the outlook for the 16-nanometer node, if you expect to backfill as some of the leading products move?

如果您希望隨著一些領先產品的移動而回填，您能否談談 16 納米節點的前景？

Or you could see the same type of move of converting capacity from 16-nanometer down to 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer.

或者你可以看到相同類型的轉換能力從 16 納米到 10 納米和 7 納米。

Then is it efficient to make that capacity conversion?

那麼進行容量轉換是否有效？

We build our capacity according to the demand, of course.

當然，我們會根據需求來建立我們的能力。

And so the next year we expect customer move -- especially the high-end smartphone -- to move from 16-nanometer to 10-nanometer.

因此，明年我們預計客戶移動——尤其是高端智能手機——將從 16 納米轉移到 10 納米。

And then we expect the second wave and third wave customer to enter into 16-nanometer.

然後我們預計第二波和第三波客戶將進入 16 納米。

So far we will convert some of the 16-nanometers capacity into 10-nanometer.

到目前為止，我們會將部分 16 納米容量轉換為 10 納米。

We will, if the demand is not as high as this year.

如果需求沒有今年那麼高，我們會的。

And you are talking about the conversion efficiency -- it's quite high.

你說的是轉換效率——它相當高。

Okay.

好的。

So when you're saying, so your base case is no conversion; it's only on a demand disappointment that you -- like your base case is you can fill that capacity?

所以當你說的時候，你的基本情況是沒有轉換；您只是在需求失望時--就像您的基本情況一樣，您可以填補該容量嗎？

Okay.

好的。

The second question, you used to disclose IDM business every quarter.

第二個問題，您過去每個季度都會披露 IDM 業務。

It's no longer in the quarterly -- but IDM last year grew from 15% to 18%.

它不再是季度——但 IDM 去年從 15% 增長到 18%。

So it's actually a reversal that IDMs grew as a percent of sales.

因此，IDM 佔銷售額的百分比增長實際上是一種逆轉。

If you could talk about that bucket, which it seemed like it continued to come down relative to Fabless.

如果你能談談那個桶，它似乎相對於 Fabless 繼續下降。

But with some of the mergers like NXP-Freescale, are you seeing as a result of that any change in outsourcing or for your overall IDM business any change?

但是對於像 NXP-Freescale 這樣的一些合併，您是否看到外包的任何變化或您的整體 IDM 業務的任何變化？

Did you say the IDM revenue growth is 18%.

你說 IDM 收入增長是 18%。

Yes, in the annual time it was 18%.

是的，在每年的時間裡，它是 18%。

The year before it was 15%.

前一年是15%。

IDM?

IDM？

For IDM.

對於 IDM。

IDM outsourcing or IDM?

IDM外包還是IDM？

Well, just IDM as your percent of revenue.

好吧，只需 IDM 作為您收入的百分比。

Like the total bucket of IDM.

就像IDM的總桶。

I see.

我懂了。

We indeed, our growth more recent years comes from fabless, also from IDM outsourcing and from system companies.

事實上，我們最近幾年的增長來自無晶圓廠，也來自 IDM 外包和系統公司。

As a matter of fact, if I look at the recent history, the growth fastest is from system companies, then the IDM outsourcing then the fabless growth.

事實上，如果我看最近的歷史，增長最快的是系統公司，然後是 IDM 外包，然後是無晶圓廠增長。

If I can add, this year the number will be similar to last year.

如果我可以補充，今年的數字將與去年相似。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Next follow-up question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個後續問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I just have one follow-up question for your inventory level.

對於您的庫存水平，我只有一個後續問題。

I know your inventory is mainly from WIP and also finished goods.

我知道您的庫存主要來自在製品和成品。

However, looking at this 3Q you have a 17% higher revenue compared to second quarter but your inventory has declined about 10%.

但是，從第三季度來看，與第二季度相比，您的收入增加了 17%，但您的庫存下降了約 10%。

Agree you said you ship off this WIP.

同意你說你從這個 WIP 發貨。

However, in 3Q you probably have much more wafer starts also.

但是，在第三季度，您可能還會有更多的晶圓啟動。

So that actually will be turned to the WIP.

所以這實際上將轉向 WIP。

So just I want to understand what is the percentage for your finished goods in your inventory?

所以我只想了解您的成品在庫存中的百分比是多少？

Are you -- did you ship off these finished goods to your customer in 3Q?

您是否在第三季度將這些成品運送給您的客戶？

Simple answer is yes.

簡單的答案是肯定的。

We have very low finished goods inventory.

我們的成品庫存非常低。

If you understand our business model that's the way it should be.

如果您了解我們的商業模式，那就應該如此。

So majority part of our inventory is WIP.

所以我們庫存的大部分是在製品。

Okay.

好的。

So when we're talking about cycle time it does help to reduce the inventory because you don't need to build that earlier.

因此，當我們談論周期時間時，它確實有助於減少庫存，因為您不需要更早地構建它。

So you can do pretty efficiently.

因此，您可以非常有效地進行操作。

Okay, so how much cycle time you have been reduced in 3Q?

好的，那麼您在第三季度減少了多少週期時間？

Actually most of the cycle time reduction comes from the manufacturing side.

實際上，大部分週期時間的減少來自製造方面。

I'll give you one example.

我給你舉一個例子。

I cannot nail down between the second quarter and the third quarter but I'll tell you that last year and this year we probably improved by 20%.

我無法確定第二季度和第三季度之間，但我會告訴你，去年和今年我們可能提高了 20%。

We shortened that cycle time.

我們縮短了周期時間。

Okay, there are follow-up questions first from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

好的，首先來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan 的後續問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So, Mark, a couple of weeks ago you announced that TSMC's going to kick off the 3-nanometer R&D.

所以，馬克，幾週前你宣布台積電將啟動 3 納米研發。

But that doesn't really show in your competitors' roadmaps, not even the 5-nanometer.

但這並沒有真正體現在競爭對手的路線圖中，甚至 5 納米也沒有。

So what is TSMC seeing that your competitors don't see in terms of technology breakthrough or any customers demanding for that 3-nanometer?

那麼台積電在技術突破或任何客戶對 3 納米的需求方面沒有看到您的競爭對手看到的什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'm sure our competitors are working on it.

我確信我們的競爭對手正在努力。

So I just have the chance last week in TSIA's annual meeting.

所以我上週才有機會參加 TSIA 的年會。

I spelled out our 3-nanometer status.

我詳細說明了我們的 3 納米狀態。

And everybody's working on it I believe.

我相信每個人都在努力。

At least the top three or four.

至少前三四名。

And it's still in the pathfinding mode and how to do the transistor I think everybody is searching it.

它仍然處於尋路模式以及如何做晶體管我想每個人都在尋找它。

Maybe it's not obvious at this point, but that is what the researching is about.

也許在這一點上並不明顯，但這就是研究的目的。

So we intend to invest heavily in the much forward-looking R&D anticipating all kinds -- both in the Moore's Law scaling as well as the 3D IC integration.

因此，我們打算在摩爾定律縮放和 3D IC 集成方面大量投資於具有前瞻性的研發。

So we intend to fulfill the future system requirement this way and to fit our technology just for the future system requirement, instead of just so-called CPU cadence.

所以我們打算以這種方式滿足未來的系統需求，並讓我們的技術適合未來的系統需求，而不僅僅是所謂的 CPU 節奏。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So in your long-term revenue mix, so Lora just mentioned that the long-term your mix will be half from mobile, one quarter from HPC, one quarter from IoT.

所以在你的長期收入組合中，Lora 剛剛提到，你的長期收入組合將一半來自移動設備，四分之一來自 HPC，四分之一來自物聯網。

So what is it today?

那麼今天是什麼呢？

I mean the mix today from these three segments?

我的意思是今天這三個部分的組合？

We didn't separate the revenue on the way you describe.

我們沒有按照您描述的方式分離收入。

We just have a communication -- computer, consumer, industrial/standard, which you can find from our management report, which a very big part is communication and the increasing important part is industrial and standard, computer getting smaller.

我們只是有一個通信——計算機，消費者，工業/標準，你可以從我們的管理報告中找到，其中很大一部分是通信，越來越重要的部分是工業和標準，計算機越來越小。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, follow-up questions also will be coming from Credit Lyonnais, Sebastian Hou.

好的，後續問題也將來自 Credit Lyonnais, Sebastian Hou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I have questions from -- more from the -- in terms of margin from the application perspective.

從應用程序的角度來看，我的問題來自 - 更多來自 - 在保證金方面。

So if you look at your future growth driver, smartphone, or just mobile and high performance computing and automotive and IoT.

因此，如果您著眼於未來的增長動力，智能手機，或者只是移動和高性能計算以及汽車和物聯網。

We understand mobile so far account for a large chunk of your business revenue contribution.

據我們了解，到目前為止，移動設備佔您業務收入貢獻的很大一部分。

And automotive and high performance computing right now is still relatively smaller.

而現在的汽車和高性能計算仍然相對較小。

But I believe this part will be -- presumably this part -- these two businesses will grow faster.

但我相信這部分會——大概是這部分——這兩個業務會增長得更快。

So in terms of the margin will these two parts of the business carry higher than the other business margin?

那麼就利潤率而言，這兩個業務的利潤率會高於其他業務的利潤率嗎？

And how do you see this impact your margin?

您如何看待這會影響您的利潤？

Will it bring more upside to your margin down the road?

它會在未來為您的利潤帶來更多上漲空間嗎？

Right.

正確的。

Lora just mentioned we try to keep our 50% to -- around 50% margin.

Lora 剛剛提到我們試圖保持 50% 到 50% 左右的利潤率。

Of course, the higher the better and we want to work on our value add for our customers.

當然，越高越好，我們希望為我們的客戶提供增值服務。

Okay.

好的。

And my follow-up questions on that is on your 7-nanometer because you have two variants for mobile and high performance computing platform, and do you see any margin or profitability difference between these two variants?

我的後續問題是關於您的 7 納米，因為您有兩個用於移動和高性能計算平台的變體，您是否看到這兩個變體之間的利潤率或盈利能力差異？

At this point it's too early -- too early to say.

在這一點上還為時過早——現在說還為時過早。

We're just working with our customers.

我們只是與我們的客戶合作。

You know the price changes year-by-year.

你知道價格逐年變化。

So how it pans out is yet to be seen.

所以它如何發展還有待觀察。

I certainly hope the high performance computing margin is higher than our mobile because -- and look at Intel's margin.

我當然希望高性能計算利潤率高於我們的移動設備，因為——看看英特爾的利潤率。

But we still at the same time want to enable our customer to enter that high performance computing market.

但同時我們仍然希望讓我們的客戶能夠進入那個高性能計算市場。

And that is the consideration.

這就是考慮。

At this point we do not assume major differences but of course we work with our customer to get their margin high -- therefore, we benefit our margin too.

在這一點上，我們不會假設存在重大差異，但我們當然會與客戶合作以提高他們的利潤率——因此，我們也使我們的利潤率受益。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right, finally the follow-up question will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

好的，最後接下來的問題將來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

About the outlook by segment for Q4?

關於第四季度的細分前景？

We have guided kind of flat fourth quarter, so on the segment side we expect communication and computer will grow slightly and consumer industrial will decrease.

我們已經指導第四季度持平，因此在細分市場方面，我們預計通信和計算機將略有增長，而消費工業將下降。

So net is flat.

所以網是平的。

All right.

好的。

Regarding the 16-nanometer market share what is your expectation for next year versus this year?

關於 16 納米市場份額，您對明年和今年的預期是什麼？

Will that be similar?

會不會類似？

It will be similar.

這將是相似的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right in that happy note we will conclude third quarter's conference and conference call.

好的，我們將結束第三季度的電話會議和電話會議。

Thank you for joining us this time and I will see you next quarter.

感謝您這次加入我們，我們下個季度再見。