台積電 ADR (TSM) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Happy New Year to everyone and welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2015 earnings conference and conference call.

祝大家新年快樂，歡迎參加台積電 2015 年第四季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us via the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Miss Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter of 2015, followed by our guidance for the first quarter of 2016.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官何珏小姐將總結我們在 2015 年第四季度的運營情況，然後是我們對 2016 年第一季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, and CFO Lora Ho will jointly provide our key messages.

之後，台積電的兩位聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei 和首席財務官 Lora Ho 將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

After that, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang, will host the Q&A session.

之後，台積電董事長張忠謀博士將主持問答環節。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Miss Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台交給台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以了解運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to join us today.

歡迎今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of the whole year 2015, followed by the guidance of the current quarter.

我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和 2015 年全年回顧開始，然後是本季度的指導。

In the fourth quarter, customers continued to carefully manage their inventory and our revenue declined by 4.2% sequentially, which is in line with our guidance.

第四季度，客戶繼續謹慎管理庫存，我們的收入環比下降 4.2%，符合我們的預期。

Despite lower revenue, gross margin rose slightly to 48.6% as cost reduction efforts and the favorable foreign exchange rate more than helped to offset impact of lower utilization.

儘管收入下降，毛利率微升至 48.6%，原因是成本削減和有利的匯率抵消了利用率下降的影響。

Operating margin of 38.3% reached the higher end of our guidance as we were able to keep a similar level of operating efficiency in the third quarter despite a drop in revenue.

38.3% 的營業利潤率達到了我們指引的上限，因為儘管收入下降，我們仍能夠在第三季度保持類似水平的營業效率。

In non-operating items, we recognized TWD724m or TWD0.02 in EPS from ASML share disposal gains.

在非經營項目中，我們從 ASML 股份出售收益中確認每股收益為 7.24 億新台幣或 0.02 新台幣。

Overall, our fourth quarter EPS reached TWD2.81.

總體而言，我們第四季度的每股收益達到 TWD2.81。

Now let's take a look at revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們看一下應用程序的收入貢獻。

During the fourth quarter, communication remained flat sequentially, consumer and industrial/standard decreased 23% and 12% respectively, while computer increased 5%.

第四季度，通信環比持平，消費和工業/標準分別下降 23% 和 12%，而計算機增長 5%。

On a full-year basis, revenue from communication increased 16% year over year and represented 61% of our total wafer revenue.

全年來看，通信收入同比增長 16%，占我們晶圓總收入的 61%。

Industrial and standard also saw 22% year-over-year growth, driven by increasing usage of MCU, Flash controller and the power management IC.

受 MCU、閃存控制器和電源管理 IC 使用量增加的推動，工業和標準也實現了 22% 的同比增長。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

As we have said before, we saw a strong ramp of 16-nanometer in the fourth quarter.

正如我們之前所說，我們在第四季度看到了 16 納米的強勁增長。

And together, 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer contributed 24% of our total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter.

在第四季度，16 納米和 20 納米共同貢獻了我們晶圓總收入的 24%。

On a full year basis, 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer accounted for 20% of our total wafer revenue in 2015 versus 9% in 2014.

按全年計算，20 納米和 16 納米在 2015 年占我們晶圓總收入的 20%，而 2014 年為 9%。

And we remain confident that the combined revenue contribution from these two technologies will continue to grow meaningfully in 2016.

我們仍然相信，這兩種技術的綜合收入貢獻將在 2016 年繼續顯著增長。

28-nanometer also held up very well and accounted for 28% of our total wafer revenue in 2015.

28 納米也保持得很好，占我們 2015 年總晶圓收入的 28%。

Moving into the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD586b, an increase of TWD61b.

進入資產負債表，我們在第四季度結束時的現金和有價證券為 TWD586b，增加了 TWD61b。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased TWD11b.

在負債方面，流動負債增加了TWD11b。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 1 day to 41 days, while days of inventory increased by 3 days to 62 days, reflecting higher working process inventory at advanced nodes.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 1 天至 41 天，而庫存天數增加 3 天至 62 天，反映先進節點的工作流程庫存較高。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the fourth quarter we generated about TWD145b cash from operations and spent TWD85b in capital expenditures.

在第四季度，我們從運營中產生了大約 TWD145b 的現金，並將 TWD85b 用於資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD60b this quarter and our overall cash balance increased TWD47b to TWD563b at the end of the quarter.

結果，我們本季度產生了新台幣60b 的自由現金流，我們的整體現金餘額在季度末增加了新台幣47b 至新台幣563b。

In US dollar terms, our fourth-quarter CapEx was $2.6b and reached $8.1b for the full year 2015.

以美元計算，我們第四季度的資本支出為 2.6 億美元，2015 年全年達到 8.1 億美元。

Now I would like to give you a recap of our performance in 2015.

現在我想給大家回顧一下我們在 2015 年的表現。

Despite a challenging year as the inventory corrections of fabless customers occurred continuously, we managed to grow our revenue 10.6% year over year to reach TWD844b or $26.6b in US dollar terms.

儘管由於無晶圓廠客戶的庫存調整不斷發生，這是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們設法使收入同比增長 10.6%，以美元計算達到 TWD844b 或 $26.6b。

Gross margin saw an 80-basis-point decline from 2014 as the decline in capacity utilization overweighed a more favorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率較 2014 年下降 80 個基點，原因是產能利用率下降蓋過了更有利的匯率。

Despite a drop in actual gross margin, continued improvement in our manufacturing efficiency led to a structural improvement in profitability.

儘管實際毛利率有所下降，但我們的製造效率持續提高導致盈利能力出現結構性改善。

Our operating margin also declined 0.9% mainly due to higher R&D expense for 10-nanometer development as well as a TWD2.3b impairment loss related to our solar operations.

我們的營業利潤率也下降了 0.9%，主要是由於 10 納米開發的研發費用增加以及與我們的太陽能業務相關的 TWD2.3b 減值損失。

In 2015, gains from share disposal totaled TWD24.7b or TWD0.84 EPS compared to TWD2.4b or TWD0.08 EPS in 2014.

與 2014 年的每股收益為 2.4b 或 0.08 新台幣相比，2015 年的股份出售收益總計為 24.7b 新台幣或 0.84 新台幣每股收益。

Our effective tax rate in 2015 was 13.5%.

我們 2015 年的有效稅率為 13.5%。

And the full-year earnings per share was TWD11.82.

全年每股收益為TWD11.82。

On cash flow, we spent TWD258b in capital expenditure, while we generated TWD530b in operating cash flow.

在現金流方面，我們將 TWD258b 用於資本支出，而我們產生了 TWD530b 的運營現金流。

Accordingly, our free cash flow more than doubled in 2015 to TWD272b, which is the second year in a row it has more than doubled.

因此，我們的自由現金流在 2015 年翻了一番以上，達到 TWD272b，這是它連續第二年翻了一番以上。

Our 2015 whole-year ROE also came out to be 27%.

我們 2015 年全年 ROE 也達到了 27%。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to the outlook for the first quarter 2016.

現在讓我們轉向 2016 年第一季度的展望。

While the China smartphone market has shown some signal of recovery, customers remain cautious in general.

儘管中國智能手機市場已顯示出一些復甦的信號，但消費者總體上仍持謹慎態度。

Based on our current business outlook and the foreign exchange rate assumptions of US dollar to TWD32.50, we expect first-quarter revenue to be between TWD198b and TWD201b, which represents 1.3% to 2.7% sequential decline; gross profit margin to be between 47% and 49%; and operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

基於我們目前的業務前景和美元兌新台幣32.50的匯率假設，我們預計第一季度收入將在新台幣198b和TWD201b之間，環比下降1.3%至2.7%；毛利率在 47% 至 49% 之間；營業利潤率在 36.5% 至 38.5% 之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn the podium to Mark Liu for his comments.

現在我想把講台轉給 Mark Liu 發表評論。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

I will start with the demand outlook messages.

我將從需求前景消息開始。

As the semiconductor supply chain went through a very severe inventory reduction during the fourth quarter 2015, our fast 16-nanometer shipment ramp-up during that quarter somewhat mitigated the inventory management impact to our sales revenue.

由於半導體供應鏈在 2015 年第四季度經歷了非常嚴重的庫存減少，我們在該季度快速增加的 16 納米出貨量在一定程度上減輕了庫存管理對我們銷售收入的影響。

As Lora just reported, in the fourth quarter 2015 we finished our revenue with quarter to quarter of minus 4.2%, and TSMC concluded our 2015 full year with 10.6% revenue growth.

正如 Lora 剛剛報導的那樣，在 2015 年第四季度，我們以負 4.2% 的季度收入結束了我們的收入，而台積電以 10.6% 的收入增長結束了 2015 年全年。

This severe inventory reduction in the fabless industry during the fourth quarter brought fabless days of inventory to about or slightly below the seasonal level as we exited 2015.

在我們退出 2015 年時，第四季度無晶圓行業的嚴重庫存減少使無晶圓庫存天數接近或略低於季節性水平。

However, the strong US dollar environment and a volatile financial market that dampened the demand for overall semiconductor last year may continue for some time.

然而，去年抑制整體半導體需求的強勢美元環境和動蕩的金融市場可能會持續一段時間。

Therefore we expect our customers will likely remain cautious in their inventory control and keep inventory close to seasonal level.

因此，我們預計我們的客戶可能會在庫存控制方面保持謹慎，並保持庫存接近季節性水平。

For our first quarter 2016, this quarter, we see a reduction of high-end smartphone demand.

對於我們 2016 年第一季度，本季度，我們看到高端智能手機需求減少。

On the other hand, demand for smartphones in China and other emerging markets show signs of recovery, with an upward momentum.

另一方面，中國等新興市場對智能手機的需求呈現回暖跡象，並呈上升勢頭。

We thus forecast a mild revenue decline of minus 1.3% to minus 2.7% quarter to quarter for the first quarter 2016.

因此，我們預測 2016 年第一季度的季度收入將溫和下降 -1.3% 至 -2.7%。

Beyond the first quarter 2016, we expect to be back to a growth trajectory.

在 2016 年第一季度之後，我們預計將回到增長軌跡。

For 2016, we forecast the world smartphone shipment unit growth rate to be plus 8%, PC minus 3%, tablet minus 7%, and the digital consumer electronics minus 5%.

2016 年，我們預測全球智能手機出貨量增長率為正 8%，PC 負 3%，平板電腦負 7%，數字消費電子產品負 5%。

Smartphones will continue to be a major driver for TSMC business in 2016.

智能手機將繼續成為 2016 年台積電業務的主要驅動力。

TSMC's silicon content in an average high-end and mid-end smartphone are increasing significantly while TSMC's silicon content in an average low-end smartphone remains approximately the same.

台積電在平均高端和中端智能手機中的矽含量顯著增加，而台積電在平均低端智能手機中的矽含量基本保持不變。

Therefore TSMC will participate broadly in this overall 8% smartphone unit growth.

因此，台積電將廣泛參與智能手機整體 8% 的增長。

From the process technology perspective, we had a very successful ramp-up of 16-nanometer customer products, with yield performance ahead of our plan in 2015.

從工藝技術的角度來看，我們非常成功地推出了 16 納米客戶產品，其良率表現超出了我們 2015 年的計劃。

This demand continues to be strong and the ramp-up will continue through this year.

這種需求繼續強勁，並且增長將持續到今年。

Given this current macroeconomic environment, we now estimate the 2015 growth rate of world semiconductor to be about 2% year on year and 2016 growth rate of world foundries to be about 5% year on year.

鑑於目前的宏觀經濟環境，我們現在估計2015年世界半導體的同比增長率約為2%，2016年世界晶圓代工的增長率約為5%。

And TSMC growth rate is expected to be between 5% and 10%.

而台積電的增長率預計在5%到10%之間。

Now I would like to give you -- deliver messages on our leading-edge technologies.

現在我想給你——傳遞關於我們前沿技術的信息。

Our 10-nanometer technology development is on track.

我們的 10 納米技術開發正步入正軌。

We are currently in intensive yield learning mode in our technology development.

我們目前在技術開發中處於密集的產量學習模式。

Our 256-megabit SRAM is yielding well.

我們的 256 兆位 SRAM 表現良好。

We expect to complete process and product qualification and begin customer product tape-outs this quarter.

我們預計在本季度完成工藝和產品認證並開始客戶產品流片。

Our 7-nanometer technology development progress is on schedule as well.

我們的 7 納米技術開發進度也在按計劃進行。

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology development leverage our 10-nanometer development very effectively.

台積電的 7 納米技術開發非常有效地利用了我們的 10 納米開發。

At the same time, TSMC's 7-nanometer offers a substantial density improvement, performance improvement and power reduction from 10-nanometer.

同時，台積電的 7 納米比 10 納米提供了實質性的密度提升、性能提升和功耗降低。

These two technologies, 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer, will cover a very wide range of applications, including application processors for smartphone, high-end networking, advanced graphics, field-programmable gate array, game console, wearables and other consumer products.

這兩種技術，10 納米和 7 納米，將涵蓋非常廣泛的應用，包括智能手機、高端網絡、高級圖形、現場可編程門陣列、遊戲機、可穿戴設備和其他消費產品的應用處理器。

We see major product advancement in three major product sectors in the next two years from 2015 to 2017.

我們看到從 2015 年到 2017 年的未來兩年，三大產品領域的產品將取得重大進展。

First sector is high-end smartphone.

第一個領域是高端智能手機。

We expect to see between now and 2017 a more than 1.5 times of transmission speed increase and greater than 2.2 times of visual experience in high-end smartphones.

我們預計，從現在到 2017 年，高端智能手機的傳輸速度提升超過 1.5 倍，視覺體驗提升超過 2.2 倍。

Meanwhile, data sensing will move towards context awareness sensing.

同時，數據感知將轉向上下文感知感知。

All those advances will be supported by TSMC's 10-nanometer and TSMC's 7-nanometer technologies.

所有這些進步都將得到台積電 10 納米和台積電 7 納米技術的支持。

Second sector is high-performance computing.

第二個領域是高性能計算。

We expect to have a 2 times of CPU cores in a processor unit to carry the needed data processing.

我們期望在一個處理器單元中有 2 倍的 CPU 內核來承載所需的數據處理。

The computing network infrastructure will need 1.6 times bandwidth for higher data rate.

計算網絡基礎設施將需要 1.6 倍的帶寬才能獲得更高的數據速率。

Again, all those advances will be supported by our 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies.

同樣，我們的 10 納米和 7 納米技術將支持所有這些進步。

Third sector is on emerging applications, such as virtual reality, gaming and automotives.

第三部門是新興應用，如虛擬現實、遊戲和汽車。

For example, the advanced driver assistance system, ADAS, on cars can greatly enhance the safety on the road for the overall automotive industry.

例如，汽車上的高級駕駛輔助系統 ADAS 可以極大地提高整個汽車行業的道路安全性。

The processors typically will need 20 times of computing power from today's level to serve that purpose.

處理器通常需要比當前水平高出 20 倍的計算能力才能達到這一目的。

These applications will also supported by TSMC's 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies and we're looking forward to that.

台積電的 10 納米和 7 納米技術也將支持這些應用，我們對此充滿期待。

I also would like to update you on the development progress beyond our 7-nanometer.

我還想向您介紹我們 7 納米以外的開發進展。

We have a sizeable third R&D team developing our 5-nanometer technology for more than a year.

我們有一個龐大的第三研發團隊開發我們的 5 納米技術超過一年。

Several innovative features and capabilities on transistor, contact and interconnect have been demonstrated.

已經展示了晶體管、接觸和互連的幾個創新特性和功能。

Our 5-nanometer technology is planned about two years after our 7-nanometer.

我們的 5 納米技術計劃在 7 納米之後大約兩年。

We made significant progress on EUV to prepare for its insertion likely in 5-nanometer for process simplification and cost-effective density scaling.

我們在 EUV 方面取得了重大進展，為它可能在 5 納米的插入做準備，以簡化工藝和具有成本效益的密度縮放。

At the present time, we are installing the third generation EUV tools in TSMC fabs.

目前，我們正在台積電晶圓廠安裝第三代 EUV 工具。

We also have an extensive pipeline of technical innovation to extend the Moore's Law, including advanced patterning, high mobility channel materials, new nano-wire transistor structures, low resistance and low capacitors, contact and wires.

我們還擁有廣泛的技術創新渠道來擴展摩爾定律，包括先進的圖案化、高遷移率溝道材料、新型納米線晶體管結構、低電阻和低電容器、觸點和導線。

Our goal is to further double the data processing throughput for application processor, graphic processor, field-programmable gate array and other process at our every nodes.

我們的目標是進一步將我們每個節點的應用處理器、圖形處理器、現場可編程門陣列和其他進程的數據處理吞吐量提高一倍。

Above is my message.

以上是我的留言。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I'll turn the podium to C.C. Wei.

我會把領獎台交給 C.C.魏。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Today I will update you the status of our 28-nanometer, 16-nanometer, InFO, and followed by comments on our specialty technologies.

今天我將為您更新我們的 28 納米、16 納米、InFO 的狀態，然後對我們的專業技術進行評論。

First, 28-nanometer.

首先，28納米。

The utilization rate of our 28-nanometer has recovered to a level close to 90% in first quarter this year and also the wafer demand increases.

今年第一季度我們28納米的利用率已經恢復到接近90%的水平，晶圓需求也在增加。

We expect this utilization rate to remain above 90% for the remainder of this year.

我們預計今年剩餘時間該利用率將保持在 90% 以上。

In addition to wafer demand increases, we also observed an increased number of tape-outs in 2015.

除了晶圓需求增加外，我們還觀察到 2015 年流片數量的增加。

And those tape-outs will mostly be produced in 2016.

而這些流片將主要在 2016 年生產。

Most of the new tape-outs are on TSMC's latest addition to 28-nanometer family, namely 28-HPC and 28-HPC Plus.

大多數新的流片都在台積電 28 納米系列的最新成員上，即 28-HPC 和 28-HPC Plus。

TSMC's 28-HPC and 28-HPC Plus offer higher performance and lower power consumption as compared with previous solutions.

與以前的解決方案相比，台積電的 28-HPC 和 28-HPC Plus 提供更高的性能和更低的功耗。

It is suitable for applications in smartphone, digital TV, consumer and networking products.

它適用於智能手機、數字電視、消費和網絡產品中的應用。

In addition, due to the -- its low power characteristic, customers are able to design their product for low-voltage applications, which are very important for the IoT devices.

此外，由於其低功耗特性，客戶能夠為低電壓應用設計他們的產品，這對於物聯網設備非常重要。

In summary, TSMC's 28-nanometer technologies are highly competitive in both technology and cost.

綜上所述，台積電的 28 納米技術在技術和成本上都具有很強的競爭力。

We are confident that our 28-nanometer will contribute to -- significantly to 2016 revenue.

我們有信心，我們的 28 納米技術將為 2016 年的收入做出顯著貢獻。

And we expect to maintain or even expand our market segment share at this node.

我們希望在這個節點上保持甚至擴大我們的細分市場份額。

Now 16-nanometer.

現在是 16 納米。

We have successfully ramped up the production of 16-nanometer starting third quarter last year with very fast pace.

從去年第三季度開始，我們以非常快的速度成功地提高了 16 納米的產量。

Manufacturing indices, such as the yield and cycle time, were achieved three to four months sooner than our 20-nanometer node and are ahead of plan.

產量和周期時間等製造指標比我們的 20 納米節點提前三到四個月實現，並且超出了計劃。

In addition to 16-FinFET Plus, in fourth quarter last year we have completed the development of 16-FFC, the low-power and low-cost version for the 16-nanometer process.

除了 16-FinFET Plus，去年第四季度我們已經完成了 16-FFC 的開發，這是 16 納米工藝的低功耗和低成本版本。

TSMC's 16-FFC incorporates the process simplification and optional optical shrink for further die cost reduction.

TSMC 的 16-FFC 結合了工藝簡化和可選的光學收縮，以進一步降低芯片成本。

It also shares the same design rule with 16-FF Plus, so customer can directly transfer their product to 16-FFC.

它還與 16-FF Plus 共享相同的設計規則，因此客戶可以直接將其產品轉移到 16-FFC。

As a result, we expect 16-FFC will enter volume production in this quarter.

因此，我們預計 16-FFC 將在本季度進入量產階段。

As customer accelerated their technology migration into 16-nanometer node, we anticipate a significant demand drop in 20-nanometer in 2016.

隨著客戶加快向 16 納米節點的技術遷移，我們預計 2016 年 20 納米的需求將顯著下降。

However, we also expect a continual ramp-up of 16-nanometer this year and expect it to contribute more than 20% of wafer revenue in 2016.

然而，我們也預計今年 16 納米工藝將持續增長，並預計它將在 2016 年貢獻超過 20% 的晶圓收入。

We estimate our foundry market segment share of 16/14-nanometer node increases from about 50% in 2015 to above 70% in 2016, exceeding the previous prediction we made in mid-2014.

我們估計我們的 16/14 納米節點代工市場份額從 2015 年的約 50% 增加到 2016 年的 70% 以上，超過了我們在 2014 年年中做出的先前預測。

Now let me talk about InFO.

現在讓我談談InFO。

We have successfully completed InFO process installation in the new Longtan site and are in product qualification stage right now.

我們已在龍潭新廠區順利完成InFO工藝安裝，目前正處於產品鑑定階段。

We are on track to start InFO volume production in second quarter 2016.

我們有望在 2016 年第二季度開始 InFO 量產。

Because of the very custom nature of our current-generation InFO technology, we do not expect adoption by a large number of customers.

由於我們當前一代 InFO 技術的定制性質，我們預計不會被大量客戶採用。

However, we do expect a few very large-volume customers.

但是，我們確實預計會有一些非常大批量的客戶。

The majority of InFO applications are for mobile devices, including IoT products.

大多數 InFO 應用程序用於移動設備，包括物聯網產品。

While we are ready for the first generation InFO volume production, we are also developing next-generation InFO technologies for better performance and lower cost.

在我們為第一代 InFO 量產做好準備的同時，我們也在開發下一代 InFO 技術，以實現更好的性能和更低的成本。

In summary, we believe TSMC's InFO technology can enhance our customers' products in performance and lower the products' power consumption.

綜上所述，我們相信台積電的 InFO 技術可以提升客戶產品的性能並降低產品的功耗。

Our expectation of InFO contributing more than $100m quarterly revenue in 4Q this year remains unchanged.

我們對 InFO 在今年第四季度貢獻超過 1 億美元季度收入的預期保持不變。

Now let me talk about the specialty technology and IoT.

現在讓我談談專業技術和物聯網。

We believe IoT-related application will be an important part of semiconductor growth in the future.

我們相信物聯網相關應用將成為未來半導體增長的重要組成部分。

In order to capture the opportunity of IoT business, TSMC has been developing technologies that fit IoT product requirements, such as high-speed computation, just mentioned by Mark, ultra-low-power transistors, sensors in many kinds, connectivity, and etc.

為了抓住物聯網業務的機會，台積電一直在開發符合物聯網產品需求的技術，例如馬克剛才提到的高速計算、超低功耗晶體管、多種傳感器、連接性等。

Some examples I would like to share with you here.

我想在這裡與大家分享一些例子。

First, we are developing process to meet automotive standard for smart cars.

首先，我們正在開發流程以滿足智能汽車的汽車標準。

We also developed the most advanced CMOS image sensor with multi-million contact between the stacked chips.

我們還開發了最先進的 CMOS 圖像傳感器，堆疊芯片之間有數百萬次接觸。

We have delivered the smallest footprint image sensor for various applications.

我們為各種應用提供了最小尺寸的圖像傳感器。

We have developed the ultra-low-power Bluetooth solution for connectivities.

我們開發了用於連接的超低功耗藍牙解決方案。

Specialty technologies are an important part to TSMC revenue.

專業技術是台積電收入的重要組成部分。

In 2015, more than 70% of TSMC's 8-inch wafer business was contributed by our specialty technologies.

2015 年，台積電 8 英寸晶圓業務的 70% 以上來自我們的專業技術。

We have also observed the increasing demand of our 12-inch wafer business has been contributed by specialty technology as well.

我們還觀察到，專業技術也為我們 12 英寸晶圓業務不斷增長的需求做出了貢獻。

We expect the trend will continue in the near future -- in the future.

我們預計這一趨勢將在不久的將來 - 在未來繼續。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Now I turn the podium to Lora.

現在我把講台轉向勞拉。

I have a few comments to make.

我有幾點意見要發表。

Let me start with CapEx.

讓我從資本支出開始。

Our CapEx for 2016 is expected to be between $9b to $10b, representing a 10% to 20% increase year over year.

我們 2016 年的資本支出預計在 $9b 到 $10b 之間，同比增長 10% 到 20%。

About 70% of the capital budget will be used for capacity build-up for the leading-edge technology, majority 10-nanometer, and R&D CapEx.

大約 70% 的資本預算將用於領先技術、多數 10 納米和研發資本支出的能力建設。

Of the $9b to $10b number, about 10% will be used for backend, mainly InFO, and 5% for China fab.

在 $9b 到 $10b 的數字中，大約 10% 將用於後端，主要是 InFO，5% 用於中國工廠。

With this CapEx our 2016 capacity will increase by about 10%.

有了這個資本支出，我們 2016 年的產能將增加約 10%。

To talk about TSMC's structural profitability, TSMC's structural profitability is measured by its standard gross margin rate, SGM, which refers to a gross margin calculated at 85% utilization rate.

要說台積電的結構性盈利能力，台積電的結構性盈利能力是用它的標準毛利率SGM來衡量的，SGM是指以85%的利用率計算的毛利率。

In the past few years, TSMC has been able to steadily increase our SGM from the mid-40s level to a high-40s level despite higher CapEx, which led to a substantial increase in depreciation expenses.

在過去的幾年裡，儘管資本支出較高，台積電仍能夠將我們的 SGM 從 40 年代中期的水平穩步提高到 40 年代的高水平，這導致折舊費用大幅增加。

The improvement of our structural profitability is mainly due to the following.

我們結構性盈利能力的改善主要得益於以下幾點。

First, very careful planning and build-out of capacity.

首先，非常仔細的規劃和能力建設。

Second, intensive cost reduction through productivity improvement and the better asset effectiveness.

第二，通過提高生產力和更好的資產效率來集中降低成本。

We are confident that we will be able to continue increasing our SGM in 2016.

我們有信心在 2016 年能夠繼續增加我們的股東特別大會。

Now a few comments about China investment.

現在談談對中國投資的一些評論。

On December 7 last year, we submitted the application to the Investment Commission of Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs for an investment project to build a wholly owned 12-inch wafer manufacturing facility and a design service center in Nanjing, China.

去年12月7日，我們向台灣經濟部投資委員會提交投資項目申請，在中國南京建設全資12英寸晶圓製造廠和設計服務中心。

The main purpose for this investment project is to enhance our access to business opportunities in China market.

該投資項目的主要目的是增加我們在中國市場獲得商機的機會。

With the establishment of a 12-inch wafer fab and a design service center in China, TSMC will be able to provide closer support to our customers in China and to extend our ecosystem to that market.

隨著 12 英寸晶圓廠和設計服務中心在中國的建立，台積電將能夠為我們在中國的客戶提供更緊密的支持，並將我們的生態系統擴展到該市場。

We will commence the investment project upon receiving the approval from the Investment Commission.

我們將在獲得投資委員會的批准後開始投資項目。

My last comment is about the dividend.

我的最後一條評論是關於股息的。

As you remember, our dividend policy is a sustainable and trending to increase cash dividend per share.

如您所知，我們的股息政策是可持續的，並且有增加每股現金股息的趨勢。

With our healthy free cash flow, we are considering an increase of cash dividend in 2016.

憑藉我們健康的自由現金流，我們正在考慮在 2016 年增加現金股息。

This concludes my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制為兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate that to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Conference Instructions).

（會議說明）。

Today's Q&A session is hosted by our Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang.

今天的問答環節由我們的主席張忠謀博士主持。

The Chairman will answer some of your questions and will pass the rest to the Co-CEOs or the CFO.

主席將回答您的一些問題，並將其餘問題轉交給聯席首席執行官或首席財務官。

So we'll begin the Q&A.

所以我們將開始問答。

All right.

好的。

I think we will let Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams, to ask the first question.

我想我們會讓瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯提出第一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The first question -- congratulations first on last year and also a good outlook for the coming year.

第一個問題——首先祝賀去年，也是對來年的美好展望。

The first quarter, it seems like it's holding up relatively well, factoring in some of the high-end smartphone weakness.

第一季度，由於高端智能手機的一些疲軟因素，它的表現似乎相對較好。

I guess if you can go through just what's driving the strength.

我想如果你能經歷驅動力量的原因。

How much is TSMC-specific as far as share gains or how much is coming from end markets or from other end markets outside of smartphone?

就份額收益而言，台積電具體有多少？終端市場或智能手機以外的其他終端市場有多少？

And off this higher first quarter, what's your expectation for continued improvement in second quarter, because last year first quarter held up well, but then we saw a slowdown after that.

在第一季度較高的情況下，您對第二季度繼續改善的期望是什麼，因為去年第一季度表現良好，但之後我們看到了放緩。

If you think there's any inventory build again in the first quarter this year.

如果您認為今年第一季度再次增加庫存。

You are asking, Randy, why is the first quarter holding up for us?

你是在問，蘭迪，為什麼第一季度對我們來說很有效？

Yes, why the first quarter is holding up.

是的，為什麼第一季度會堅持下去。

And then if you fare with this strength, how you expect the next couple of quarters, if it could be the start of another build.

然後，如果你以這種實力過關，你會如何期待接下來的幾個季度，如果這可能是另一個構建的開始。

Well actually, I wasn't surprised by our first quarter.

實際上，我對我們的第一季度並不感到驚訝。

You seem to be saying that it's holding up while the market's not holding up.

你似乎在說，當市場沒有支撐時，它正在支撐。

I really think that if we have gained any share in the first quarter -- if we gain any share in the first quarter, I think it will not be significant.

我真的認為，如果我們在第一季度獲得任何份額 - 如果我們在第一季度獲得任何份額，我認為這不會很重要。

I think that's the way the foundry market will be in the first quarter, at least as far as I can see now.

我認為這就是第一季度代工市場的情況，至少就我現在所見。

I don't think we have any -- nor will we be losing any share.

我認為我們沒有——我們也不會失去任何份額。

I suspect that we may be gaining a little share in the first quarter, but I don't think it's significant.

我懷疑我們可能會在第一季度獲得一點份額，但我認為這並不重要。

As to what sectors, well, the same sectors that we do our business in.

至於在哪些領域，嗯，我們在同一領域開展業務。

Communication of course is the big one.

溝通當然是最重要的。

Mobile products I think is a big one.

移動產品我認為是一個大的。

Then I think Lora has told you, consumer and then -- I don't see anything unusual.

然後我認為 Lora 已經告訴過你，消費者，然後 - 我沒有看到任何不尋常的地方。

Well, actually, markets talk about the end of inventory, of surplus inventory.

嗯，實際上，市場談論的是庫存的結束，過剩的庫存。

We think that at the end of the fourth quarter, although the numbers are not out yet, but we think that at the end of the fourth quarter inventory is -- supply chain inventory is already, what, about 2 days, 2 days below seasonal.

我們認為在第四季度末，雖然數字還沒有出來，但我們認為在第四季度末庫存是--供應鏈庫存已經，什麼，大約 2 天，低於季節性 2 天.

So because of that, I really, for a while, expect the first quarter to be stronger than what we are forecasting now.

所以正因為如此，我真的在一段時間內預計第一季度會比我們現在預測的要強。

But the way we are forecasting it now is pretty much, pretty normal seasonally.

但是我們現在預測它的方式幾乎是季節性的，非常正常。

If you look at our past couple or three years' record, I think the first quarter was always -- has always been a bit, a few percentage points below the fourth quarter.

如果你看看我們過去幾年或三年的記錄，我認為第一季度總是——總是比第四季度低幾個百分點。

I don't know, as far as I can see, I think we're managing the Company well.

我不知道，據我所知，我認為我們對公司的管理很好。

But I don't think that's unusual.

但我不認為這是不尋常的。

I'll ask the follow-up on two technologies.

我會問兩個技術的後續。

I think there's some change.

我認為有一些變化。

16-FFC, which is a lower cost, I think you mentioned it's actually in production this quarter, if I heard right.

16-FFC，成本更低，如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你提到它實際上在本季度投入生產。

And if you could talk about how meaningful because that will lower cost on 16, in getting customers to migrate from 28 to 16, if you see a more meaningful ramp of that node through this year.

如果你能談談意義何在，因為這將降低 16 的成本，讓客戶從 28 遷移到 16，如果你看到今年該節點的增長更有意義。

But the other side, InFO, it felt like last quarter you were talking about more customers beyond the high-volume application.

但另一方面，InFO，感覺就像上個季度你在談論除了大容量應用程序之外的更多客戶。

If you're seeing some delays or change in other customers or additional customers adopting InFO.

如果您發現其他客戶或其他採用 InFO 的客戶出現延遲或變化。

About the InFO or on the 16?

關於 InFO 還是關於 16？

It was a two-part question.

這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。

I know.

我知道。

The first part I know is about the 16.

我知道的第一部分是關於 16 的。

FFC.

FFC。

16-FFC.

16-FFC。

And the second part is InFO, right, where you asked about whether more customers are using something?

第二部分是 InFO，對，你問是否有更多的客戶在使用某些東西？

16-FFC -- that's right, InFO.

16-FFC——沒錯，InFO。

InFO customers.

信息客戶。

Okay.

好的。

C.C., would you answer the question?

C.C.，你會回答這個問題嗎？

16-FFC first.

首先是 16-FFC。

You, Randy, you ask whether it is a meaningful cost reduction or something like that, lower cost.

你，蘭迪，你問這是否是一個有意義的成本降低或類似的東西，降低成本。

Actually a meaningful ramp, if you expect a meaningful ramp, migration from 28 to 16.

實際上是一個有意義的斜坡，如果你期望一個有意義的斜坡，從 28 遷移到 16。

Yes, it's a meaningful ramp.

是的，這是一個有意義的斜坡。

Through this year?

過這一年？

Yes, this year.

是的，今年。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

I suppose, yes.

我想，是的。

Okay.

好的。

I think his question was whether it's already in production, 16-FFC.

我認為他的問題是它是否已經投入生產，16-FFC。

Yes.

是的。

So it's a pull in by a few quarters.

因此，它被拉了幾個季度。

And it is actually faster than we thought because of very successful technology introduction and using the same design rule, we don't have to change any design architecture or design ecosystem.

而且它實際上比我們想像的要快，因為非常成功的技術引入和使用相同的設計規則，我們不必改變任何設計架構或設計生態系統。

So it's just a few minor characterization that was necessary.

所以這只是一些必要的小特徵。

But it's okay.

不過沒關係。

So it's a meaningful volume production.

所以這是一個有意義的批量生產。

Now InFO, this is -- the last time I reported that, so we have a lot of customers working with us on the InFO application to their own -- to their products.

現在，InFO，這是我最後一次報告這一點，所以我們有很多客戶與我們合作，將 InFO 應用程序應用於他們自己的產品——他們的產品。

The cooperation continues.

合作仍在繼續。

Again if it is a -- InFO early stage is very customer-specific.

同樣，如果它是——InFO 早期階段是非常特定於客戶的。

Your layout, your die size, your application, your requirement on the total thickness is all different.

你的佈局、你的芯片尺寸、你的應用、你對總厚度的要求都是不同的。

So now we are focused on very large-volume customers because we want to ramp it up quickly.

所以現在我們專注於非常大批量的客戶，因為我們希望快速提升它。

And other application right now we are going to introduce in the new generation with lower cost and better performance.

以及現在我們將在新一代中推出成本更低、性能更好的其他應用程序。

Timing for the new generation?

新一代的時機？

Next year.

明年。

Next year.

明年。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Then the second -- well, we'll go to Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou for the second question.

然後是第二個——好吧，我們將請德意志銀行 Michael Chou 回答第二個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The first question is regarding your 7-nanometer progress, it seems like you can enter 7-nanometer mass production in the first half 2018.

第一個問題是關於你們7納米的進展，看來你們2018年上半年可以進入7納米量產了。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Mark?

標記？

We will -- that's correct.

我們會 - 這是正確的。

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

So does that mean that you will be ahead of all your competitors by at least one year in terms of mass production schedule?

那麼這是否意味著您在量產計劃方面將領先所有競爭對手至少一年？

I do not -- well each company's technology may be different, so each company have their own product road map.

我不知道——每個公司的技術可能不同，所以每個公司都有自己的產品路線圖。

So we don't compare just by the dates.

因此，我們不會僅按日期進行比較。

It also depends on the content of those technologies.

它還取決於這些技術的內容。

But that's our schedule if -- and that fits to our customers' product development.

但這就是我們的時間表，如果 - 並且適合我們客戶的產品開發。

Can we say your 7-nanometer performance will be ahead of all your competitors?

我們可以說您的 7 納米性能將領先於所有競爭對手嗎？

Your 7-nanometer performance would be ahead of your competitor given that your timeframe will be quicker.

鑑於您的時間框架會更快，您的 7 納米性能將領先於您的競爭對手。

I wouldn't want to comment on this.

我不想對此發表評論。

We don't know the competitors' specific numbers.

我們不知道競爭對手的具體數字。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is regarding the EUV in 5-nanometer.

第二個問題是關於 5 納米的 EUV。

You highlight that it could be adopted, EUV could be adopted for EUV for 5-nanometer mass production.

你強調它可以被採用，EUV 可以被用於 5 納米量產的 EUV。

So will that help you expand your addressable market in 5-nanometer versus 7-nanometer or will that be bigger for 5-nanometer TAM, versus 7-nanometer if you can use EUV?

那麼，這是否會幫助您在 5 納米與 7 納米之間擴展您的潛在市場，或者如果您可以使用 EUV，5 納米 TAM 與 7 納米相比會更大嗎？

You mean the demand?

你是說需求？

For demand.

為需求。

Since that smaller IC house can use EUV, if you can -- I mean if you can use EUV for 5-nanometer, can we say that?

既然那個較小的 IC 房子可以使用 EUV，如果可以的話——我的意思是如果你可以將 EUV 用於 5 納米，我們可以這麼說嗎？

Your question is will EUV improve the -- increase the demand of our 5-nanometer?

你的問題是 EUV 會改善——增加我們對 5 納米的需求嗎？

Yes, versus 7-nanometer, given that 7-nanometer will not use EUV.

是的，與 7 納米相比，鑑於 7 納米不會使用 EUV。

It's hard to compare because these two technology, the purpose we use EUV to -- is to simplify the process flow, therefore the yield can be higher.

很難比較，因為這兩種技術，我們使用 EUV 的目的 - 是為了簡化工藝流程，因此產量可以更高。

Secondly is to reduce the cost if the EUV's source development is according to that plan, to current plan.

其次是降低成本，如果EUV的源頭開發是按照那個計劃，對現在的計劃。

So for both factors, it will help our 5-nanometer, both yield and cost.

因此，對於這兩個因素，它將有助於我們的 5 納米，無論是產量還是成本。

And if you translate that into demand, I think that's enable more affordability of the 5-nanometer.

如果您將其轉化為需求，我認為這將使 5 納米的價格更加實惠。

Any way you can disclose your average output for your EUV a day now?

您現在有什麼方法可以披露您的 EUV 的平均輸出量嗎？

Okay.

好的。

EUV, we are working on the second-generation EUV tools.

EUV，我們正在研究第二代 EUV 工具。

And we are installing our third generation EUV tools.

我們正在安裝我們的第三代 EUV 工具。

And for the EUV, currently for the tool we have, we try to improve the reliability of the tools.

而對於 EUV，目前對於我們擁有的工具，我們試圖提高工具的可靠性。

And that is from the cost.

那是從成本上來的。

We run several hundred wafers a day continuously so that we can debug the tools, and that will prevail for quite some time to do that.

我們每天連續運行數百個晶圓，以便我們可以調試工具，並且這將在相當長的一段時間內占主導地位。

What kind of output do you expect that you can use the EUV for the 5-nanometer mass production?

您希望使用 EUV 進行 5 納米量產的輸出是什麼樣的？

At what time, you mean?

你的意思是什麼時候？

In one day, in average.

在一天內，平均而言。

Okay.

好的。

At this time we are -- we have demonstrated 500 wafer per day every day for over a period of time of a full months.

目前，我們已經在整整一個月的時間裡每天展示 500 個晶圓。

So that was the demonstration.

這就是演示。

Then the rest we are working on.

然後是我們正在處理的其餘部分。

We don't push to extreme of the move, but rather we focus on the reliability of the tools.

我們不會將舉措推向極端，而是專注於工具的可靠性。

So the demonstrated is 500 wafer per day.

所以演示的是每天 500 個晶圓。

So does that mean if you can demonstrate that stably over the next 12 months, you will use that for 5-nanometer mass production?

那麼這是否意味著如果你能在接下來的 12 個月內穩定地證明這一點，你就會將其用於 5 納米的大規模生產？

Can we say that or --?

我們可以這樣說還是——？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

The next question comes from the floor, and that will be from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題來自地板，將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Thank you to taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

Happy New Year, Chairman and CEOs.

新年快樂，董事長和首席執行官。

I think that my first question --.

我想我的第一個問題——。

Same to you.

你也一樣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

First question is that you started your 28-nanometer with almost no competition in the market at that time.

第一個問題是你開始了你的 28 納米，當時市場上幾乎沒有競爭。

However, for last year when you started 16-nanometer, I think that we had a big competitor in the market.

但是，去年開始 16 納米時，我認為我們在市場上有一個很大的競爭對手。

So the question is that when now we are moving to 10-nanometer, how do you think about the competition landscape will be?

所以問題是，當我們現在轉向 10 納米時，您如何看待競爭格局？

Will it be more like 28-nanometer or it's more like 16-nanometer last year?

會更像 28 納米還是去年更像 16 納米？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The last part of your question, say it again.

你問題的最後一部分，再說一遍。

So when you migrate, when we start 10-nanometer mass production in -- at end of this year, how do you think about the competition landscape?

因此，當您遷移時，當我們在今年年底開始 10 納米量產時，您如何看待競爭格局？

Will it's more like 28-nanometer or more like 16-nanometer?

它會更像 28 納米還是更像 16 納米？

Well, on 10-nanometer, we intend to begin with a very high market share.

好吧，在 10 納米上，我們打算從非常高的市場份額開始。

We will intend to begin with a very high market share.

我們打算從非常高的市場份額開始。

And we intend not to lose it.

我們不打算失去它。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

So and then a follow-up question would be, Chairman, you comment for 16-nanometer this year --.

因此，接下來的一個問題是，主席，您對今年的 16 納米發表評論--。

Foundry.

鑄造廠。

Foundry market share anyway.

無論如何，代工市場份額。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Understood.

明白了。

Yes.

是的。

What's your next question?

你的下一個問題是什麼？

I think the Chairman's comment on 16-nanometer this year is having bigger market share in a much bigger market.

我認為董事長今年對16納米的評論是在更大的市場中擁有更大的市場份額。

I think C.C. said 70% foundry market share.

我認為C.C.表示 70% 的代工市場份額。

70% for the 16-nanometer?

16 納米的 70%？

Didn't you?

你不是嗎？

Yes, above.

是的，上面。

Above 70%, he said.

他說，超過 70%。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

But that one, is it a much bigger market share you thought two quarters ago, above 70%?

但是那個，你認為兩個季度前的市場份額要大得多，超過 70%？

I didn't understand your question.

我不明白你的問題。

You said you expect much bigger market share.

你說你期望更大的市場份額。

So this 70% is -- did this beat your expectation then?

所以這 70% 是 - 這超出了你的預期嗎？

I think it exceeded the prediction we made a year and a half ago.

我認為它超出了我們一年半前的預測。

As far as what I was expecting a year and a half ago, I don't even remember myself.

至於一年半前我所期待的，我什至不記得自己了。

Understood.

明白了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Then the second question is to Lora.

然後第二個問題是勞拉。

I think in October you -- at that time you commented about the investment, 12-inch investment in China, you think the manufacturing cost will be higher in China than in Taiwan.

我想在10月份你——當時你評論了投資，12英寸在中國的投資，你認為中國的製造成本會比台灣高。

So at that time you said TSMC was still evaluating the investment in China.

所以當時你說台積電還在評估在中國的投資。

However, I think in December you decided to set up a plant and also design center in China.

但是，我認為您在 12 月決定在中國設立工廠和設計中心。

So what has changed during these two months for you to decide to invest in China?

那麼在這兩個月裡，您決定在中國投資的原因是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The cost doesn't change in two months.

費用在兩個月內沒有變化。

Okay?

好的？

The cost in China will be still higher than Taiwan on an apple-to-apple basis.

按蘋果對蘋果計算，中國大陸的成本仍將高於台灣。

I think we have stated the purpose for us to put a 12-inch fab in China is to pursue the potential market growth.

我想我們已經說明了我們在中國建立 12 英寸晶圓廠的目的是為了追求潛在的市場增長。

This is the main reason for us to invest in China.

這是我們在中國投資的主要原因。

So at that time, I think we are still evaluating.

所以那個時候，我想我們還在評估。

And we are also in discussions with the China part -- counterpart.

我們也在與中國部分——對應方進行討論。

And early December we have pretty much finished the discussion.

12 月初，我們幾乎完成了討論。

And we made a decision to go ahead with the application for set up a 12-inch fab and the design center.

我們決定繼續申請設立 12 英寸晶圓廠和設計中心。

So how about the ROI for the investment in China?

那麼在中國投資的投資回報率如何呢？

So is that would be low -- much below corporate average?

那麼這是否會很低——遠低於企業平均水平？

Or that probably would be improved over time.

或者這可能會隨著時間的推移而得到改善。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

For a case like this, we don't measure ROI.

對於這種情況，我們不衡量投資回報率。

Okay?

好的？

We just know that for manufacturing part, because the scale is smaller and the costs will be higher, but we hope it can be compensated by the market share gains, by doing more business in China.

我們只知道製造部分，因為規模更小，成本會更高，但我們希望通過在中國做更多的業務來彌補市場份額的增長。

Well we do measure ROI, even in this case.

好吧，即使在這種情況下，我們也會衡量投資回報率。

But remember, our first priority, the rationale, let's say, of setting up a 16 FinFET plant in China is to enhance our access to the growing Chinese market.

但請記住，我們的首要任務，比如說，在中國建立 16 個 FinFET 工廠的理由是為了加強我們對不斷增長的中國市場的准入。

So while we do measure the ROI of the plant there, you also have to take into account that the increased sales that this plant is going to bring to us.

因此，雖然我們確實衡量了那里工廠的投資回報率，但您還必須考慮到這家工廠將為我們帶來的銷售增長。

And -- but to answer your question simply, we still measure the ROI.

而且 - 但為了簡單地回答您的問題，我們仍然會衡量投資回報率。

But the ROI, well, since the investment is relatively small, frankly, and we don't -- we put it really second to the increased sales that it will bring in, yes, that this plant will bring in.

但是投資回報率，好吧，坦率地說，因為投資相對較小，而且我們沒有 - 我們把它放在第二位，它將帶來的銷售額增加，是的，這家工廠將帶來。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

Thanks, Chairman.

謝謝主席。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Next question actually will be coming from a new analyst arriving at Barclays, and that's Bruce Lu.

下一個問題實際上將來自巴克萊的一位新分析師，那就是布魯斯·盧。

Bruce?

布魯斯？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Chairman, the question is that so basically the revenue guidance for 2016 is somewhere around 5% to 10%.

主席，問題是，基本上 2016 年的收入指導在 5% 到 10% 左右。

But I do recall that earnings CAGR in the coming three, four years will be 10% and above.

但我確實記得未來三、四年的收益複合年增長率將達到 10% 及以上。

So which means do we expect some margin improvement this year?

那麼這意味著我們預計今年的利潤率會有所改善嗎？

And what's more important is that as coming into 2017 or after, where -- when the 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer will play a much more important role, do we expect the earning growth coming from the top line or from the margin improvement?

更重要的是，進入 2017 年或之後，當 10 納米和 7 納米將發揮更重要的作用時，我們預計收入增長來自收入增長還是來自利潤率提高？

All right.

好的。

I think Bruce's question is if we guide 2016's growth being only 5% to 10%, but then we also said that our net profit will grow 10%.

我認為布魯斯的問題是，如果我們指導 2016 年的增長只有 5% 到 10%，但我們也說我們的淨利潤將增長 10%。

That was our five-year, whatever, objective.

那是我們的五年目標。

So his question is does this imply that we will have an improvement in margin?

所以他的問題是，這是否意味著我們將提高利潤率？

And whether this improvement coming from the top line or from the profitability?

這種改善是來自收入還是來自盈利能力？

Well --.

出色地 - 。

That's more for the -- 2016, well probably can you expect or do we expect some profitability improvement in 2016?

2016 年的情況更是如此，您可能會期待還是我們預計 2016 年的盈利能力會有所改善？

And what's more important is moving to 2017, when 10-nanometer play a more important role.

更重要的是進入 2017 年，屆時 10 納米將發揮更重要的作用。

Okay.

好的。

Well, I'm sorry.

好吧，我很抱歉。

He apparently clarified your interpretation, so I didn't get that.

他顯然澄清了你的解釋，所以我沒有明白。

I understood what you said, but I don't --.

我明白你說的，但我不——。

The only difference is that he's thinking beyond 2016.

唯一的區別是他的想法超越了 2016 年。

All right.

好的。

He's thinking -- you are thinking beyond 2016 and you refer back to the earlier target that we set, that we will grow profit 10% a year.

他在想——你在考慮超越 2016 年，你回想起我們之前設定的目標，即我們將每年增長 10% 的利潤。

It's a good answer.

這是一個很好的答案。

And let me try to answer it now.

現在讓我試著回答一下。

Did I say it's a good answer or did I say it's a good question?

我說這是一個好答案還是我說這是一個好問題？

It's a good question.

這是個好問題。

It's a good question.

這是個好問題。

Let me try to answer it now.

現在讓我試著回答一下。

We set that target in late 2014, I believe.

我相信，我們在 2014 年底設定了這個目標。

We said that we want to grow.

我們說我們想要成長。

We said that in the next five years we want to grow profit, actually operating profit, not necessarily net income, operating profit 10% a year.

我們說未來五年我們要增長利潤，實際上是營業利潤，不一定是淨利潤，營業利潤每年10%。

And that was more than a year and a half ago, I believe.

我相信那是一年半以前的事了。

Much has happened since then.

從那以後發生了很多事情。

Last year was a difficult year.

去年是艱難的一年。

I said 10% compounded annual growth rate.

我說的是10%的年復合增長率。

Now back when we set the target in late 2014, we were looking at a very good -- we thought we were looking at a very good 2015.

現在回到我們在 2014 年底設定目標時，我們看到了一個非常好的年份——我們認為我們看到了一個非常好的 2015 年。

Now 2015 turned out to be disappointing, as everyone knows.

眾所周知，2015 年的結果令人失望。

But we still managed to grow our operating profit by about 10%.

但我們仍然設法將營業利潤增長了約 10%。

And 2016 will also be -- it will be -- I think it will be better than 2015.

2016 年也會——它會——我認為它會比 2015 年更好。

So we are at least mildly optimistic about 2016.

因此，我們至少對 2016 年持溫和樂觀態度。

So we have now, as Mark said, identified our growth in 2016 as 5% to 10%.

因此，正如 Mark 所說，我們現在確定 2016 年的增長率為 5% 到 10%。

Now, what he meant was revenue.

現在，他的意思是收入。

But our -- but Lora also said that our structural profitability actually is still improving.

但我們的——但勞拉也表示，我們的結構盈利能力實際上仍在改善。

So I'm saying now, while Mark meant revenue, I'm saying now that our operating profit will also grow 5% to 10% this year, hopefully 10%, or even hopefully, even more hopefully more than 10%.

所以我現在說，雖然馬克意味著收入，但我現在說我們的營業利潤今年也將增長 5% 到 10%，希望增長 10%，甚至希望，甚至希望超過 10%。

Okay?

好的？

So all right, what I'm saying is that we set the 10 percent compounded annual growth rate a year and a half ago, when things looked might brighter.

所以好吧，我的意思是，我們在一年半前設定了 10% 的複合年增長率，當時情況看起來可能會更好。

Much has happened.

發生了很多事情。

But we still managed for one year, and it appears now we'll manage for the second year, of this five year, above 10%.

但是我們仍然管理了一年，現在看來我們將管理第二年，在這五年中，超過 10%。

But I'm not repeating my pledge, my prediction that 2017, 2018, 2019 will continue to grow at 10% a year.

但我沒有重複我的承諾，我預測 2017 年、2018 年、2019 年將繼續以每年 10% 的速度增長。

We -- I think that the likelihood of -- well, if you just look at the semiconductor market, the prediction about the future semiconductor full market, it's 2%, 3% a year for the next 5 or 10 years.

我們 - 我認為可能性 - 好吧，如果你只看半導體市場，對未來半導體完整市場的預測，未來 5 年或 10 年每年增長 2% 到 3%。

Well we have a premium.

好吧，我們有溢價。

We have a growth premium.

我們有增長溢價。

Now a year and a half ago, I thought our growth premium, our revenue and profit growth premium was at least 5%, because back then the prediction about the semiconductor growth was better than it is now.

現在一年半前，我認為我們的增長溢價，我們的收入和利潤增長溢價至少是 5%，因為當時對半導體增長的預測比現在要好。

Now I still think we have a premium of some magnitude.

現在我仍然認為我們有一定程度的溢價。

But the -- you will hear from me sometime what our rolling five-year projection is.

但是——你會在某個時候聽到我的消息，我們的滾動五年預測是什麼。

The last time you heard it was a year and a half ago.

你最後一次聽到它是一年半以前。

And so far we have fulfilled it, even though the circumstances were much more difficult than we thought they were going to be when we made the prediction, when we made the target.

到目前為止，我們已經實現了它，儘管當我們做出預測時，當我們制定目標時，情況比我們想像的要困難得多。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is that one of the best things TSMC did in past several generations is that 28-nanometer ramped up much faster than 40; 20 ramped up much faster than 28, and so did 16.

我的第二個問題是，台積電在過去幾代人中做的最好的事情之一是 28 納米的發展速度比 40 快得多； 20 的增長速度比 28 快得多，16 也是如此。

That is -- can we expect that for 10-nanometer?

那就是——我們可以期待 10 納米嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So that's nice; short and easy.

那很好；簡短而容易。

Next question will come from the floor and it will be HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題將來自現場，它將是匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Let's start with Lora.

讓我們從勞拉開始。

2011 I think is when you guys started this -- capital spending ticked up for 28-nanometer.

我認為是 2011 年你們開始的時候——資本支出增加了 28 納米。

I think you went up to 45% to 50% of revenue for a few years and dominated 28-nanometer.

我認為你在幾年內佔據了收入的 45% 到 50% 並主導了 28 納米。

Now this year at 8b -- last year at 8b, this year up only 10% or more, is now, I think, in the 30%, 35% of revenue levels.

現在今年 8b - 去年 8b，今年僅增長 10% 或更多，我認為現在處於 30%、35% 的收入水平。

So this is what's generating in the free cash flow and the potential for your higher dividend.

因此，這就是自由現金流產生的原因以及您獲得更高股息的潛力。

But also what does it mean for your depreciation?

但這對您的折舊意味著什麼？

And I'd also like you to answer that question maybe in terms of if you did start that big 28-nanometer CapEx five years ago, is there a roll-off benefit that's going be starting happening soon as well?

我還希望您回答這個問題，如果您確實在五年前開始了 28 納米的大資本支出，是否也將很快開始出現滾降收益？

I can talk about depreciation for this year.

我可以談談今年的折舊。

With 9b to 10b, the growth will be smaller than last year.

從 9b 到 10b，增長將小於去年。

Last year I think it was 11%.

去年我認為是 11%。

This year we expect to be a mid to high single-digit, less than 10% growth.

今年我們預計將達到中高個位數，不到 10% 的增長。

Growth in depreciation.

折舊增長。

Depreciation year-over-year growth.

折舊同比增長。

When you talk about growth, people usually associate positive meaning with -- this is a decrease of depreciation.

當您談論增長時，人們通常將積極的含義與 - 這是折舊的減少。

Increase of depreciation, increase.

增加折舊，增加。

The growth of depreciation, the growth rate of depreciation is going to slow down.

折舊的增長，折舊的增長速度將放緩。

Mid to high single-digit.

中到高個位數。

Yes.

是的。

And your second question referred to -- because a couple of years ago we had very high capital expenditure.

你提到的第二個問題——因為幾年前我們的資本支出非常高。

And after the five year it will be depreciated, that's true.

五年後它會貶值，這是真的。

That's true.

確實如此。

I think in the next few years we are going to see a lot of tool that has gone through the depreciation period.

我認為在接下來的幾年中，我們將看到很多工具已經經歷了折舊期。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And maybe if I could just get a quick follow up to C.C. To Randy's question, I actually wanted to know about 16-nanometer FinFET, FFC, ASP versus cost.

也許如果我能快速跟進 C.C.對於 Randy 的問題，我實際上想了解 16 納米 FinFET、FFC、ASP 與成本的關係。

Is this a higher-margin opportunity for you here?

這對您來說是一個更高利潤的機會嗎？

I said it's a lower cost.

我說成本低。

I did not comment on the price.

我沒有評論價格。

Alright.

好吧。

The margin opportunity for FFC versus FF -- FinFET Plus?

FFC 與 FF 的利潤機會——FinFET Plus？

Higher, yes.

更高，是的。

Well this actually -- Lora gave the answer, I think, in her structural profitability discussion.

好吧，這實際上——我認為，Lora 在她的結構盈利能力討論中給出了答案。

We've managed that very, very carefully.

我們已經非常非常小心地做到了這一點。

Structural profitability basically is projected price divided by projected cost, or whatever, just those two variables, and manage it that way.

結構盈利能力基本上是預計價格除以預計成本，或者其他什麼，只是這兩個變量，並以這種方式進行管理。

And actually I want to go back a little bit to the answer.

實際上我想回到答案。

I want to add to the answer I gave to Bruce.

我想補充一下我給布魯斯的答案。

You said that he was new.

你說他是新來的。

He is new from --?

他是新來的——？

He was from CLSA, now jumping ship to Barclays.

他來自里昂證券，現在跳槽到巴克萊。

Barclays?

巴克萊？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And I really think the key factors, why do we have a premium on -- over semiconductor market growth?

我真的認為關鍵因素，為什麼我們對半導體市場增長有溢價？

Why do we have a premium, meaning that our growth rate, our revenue growth rate, top-line growth rate is likely to be higher than the semiconductor market growth rate?

為什麼我們有溢價，意味著我們的增長率、我們的收入增長率、頂線增長率很可能高於半導體市場的增長率？

It's because in two very simple words, it's because we are everyone's foundry.

這是因為用兩個非常簡單的詞來說，就是因為我們是每個人的代工。

Being everyone's foundry has advantage of participating in the growth of whoever succeeds the best, wherever customer succeeds the best.

作為每個人的代工廠，無論客戶在哪裡取得最大成功，都可以參與到誰最成功的成長中。

We've participated in it and we have been everyone's foundry ever since -- well maybe not when we started up, but certainly for the last 10, 15 years we have been virtually everybody's foundry.

我們參與了它，從那以後我們一直是每個人的代工廠——也許我們剛開始時不是這樣，但在過去的 10 年、15 年裡，我們幾乎是每個人的代工廠。

And we intend to remain that way.

我們打算保持這種狀態。

Being everyone's foundry, fulfilling our mission of being the trusted technology and capacity provider to the IC industry, it means that whoever in our customer -- among our customers succeed the best, we participate in that success.

作為每個人的代工廠，履行我們成為 IC 行業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商的使命，這意味著無論我們客戶中的誰——我們的客戶中最成功的人，我們都參與了這一成功。

That's why I think that we have a premium of growth over the total IC market.

這就是為什麼我認為我們的增長高於整個 IC 市場。

Now, let's talk about the bottom line.

現在，讓我們談談底線。

Now, that's where structural profitability comes in as important.

現在，這就是結構性盈利能力發揮重要作用的地方。

And we want to manage it such that the bottom line grows proportionately with the top line.

我們希望管理它，使底線與頂線成比例增長。

And so just keep that in mind.

所以請記住這一點。

And we're improving it actually.

我們實際上正在改進它。

We're improving the structural profitability.

我們正在改善結構性盈利能力。

We're improving what we call the standard gross margin, as Lora said.

正如 Lora 所說，我們正在提高我們所說的標準毛利率。

And we have improved it by several percentage points in the last few years.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經將它提高了幾個百分點。

It depends on -- in fact, if I -- I usually look back to six years ago.

這取決於——事實上，如果我——我通常會回顧六年前。

And since then we have improved by at least by 500 basis points.

從那以後，我們至少提高了 500 個基點。

And we expected it to improve.

我們預計它會有所改善。

Now, being everyone's foundry and maintaining or improving our structural profitability still further puts us in the right place.

現在，作為每個人的代工並保持或提高我們的結構盈利能力，我們仍然處於正確的位置。

And while I cannot answer you at this moment that 2017, 2018, 2019 will still be 10% a year profit growth a year, I cannot answer that.

雖然我現在不能回答你說 2017 年、2018 年、2019 年仍然是每年 10% 的利潤增長，但我不能回答這個問題。

But I'm just saying that I have my -- I put my trust in our ability to be those two things, to maintain, to do those two things.

但我只是說我有我的——我相信我們有能力成為這兩件事，保持，做這兩件事。

First, be everyone's foundry.

首先，做每個人的代工。

And second, maintaining our structural profitability.

其次，保持我們的結構盈利能力。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Elizabeth, can I just quickly follow up on that?

伊麗莎白，我能盡快跟進嗎？

So if depreciation growth is slower, if you have higher margin, faster ramp of 16-nanometer FinFET compact, if you have currency tailwinds as well, if you have rising utilization rates, are we going to see a few quarters of above 50% gross margins this year?

因此，如果折舊增長較慢，如果您有更高的利潤率、更快的 16 納米 FinFET 緊湊型增長，如果您也有貨幣順風，如果您的利用率上升，我們會看到幾個季度超過 50% 的毛利率今年的利潤？

Or is that a natural ceiling?

或者那是一個天然的天花板？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I'm just curious.

我只是好奇。

Well if things suddenly -- if demand suddenly surges and as a result our utilization suddenly goes up, yes, you will see 50%.

好吧，如果事情突然發生——如果需求突然激增，導致我們的利用率突然上升，是的，你會看到 50%。

But this is, in a restaurant, you care about the margin on your meal, right.

但這就是，在餐館裡，你關心的是你用餐的利潤，對吧。

But you care even more about filling the restaurant with customers.

但您更關心讓餐廳充滿顧客。

That's our utilization, you see?

這就是我們的利用，你明白嗎？

That's very, very important.

這是非常非常重要的。

Yes.

是的。

So, anyway, that also explains why we are -- Lora said it, we're very careful in building out capacity, in building up capacity.

所以，無論如何，這也解釋了我們為什麼——Lora 說過，我們在能力建設和能力建設方面非常小心。

You don't want to rent a big hall for a restaurant and then not have enough customers.

您不想為餐廳租用一個大大廳，然後沒有足夠的顧客。

So that's why we are very careful in building capacity.

所以這就是為什麼我們在能力建設方面非常小心。

And I have said that many times in the past.

我過去已經說過很多次了。

We don't build capacity unless we have a very high confidence that we will have customers using that capacity.

除非我們非常有信心讓客戶使用該容量，否則我們不會建立容量。

All right.

好的。

Next comes -- questions comes from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

接下來是——問題來自高盛、唐納德·盧。

Congratulations for a very good result.

祝賀取得了非常好的結果。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

One is on InFO.

一個是在 InFO 上。

So for the InFO, we are talking about different road maps.

因此，對於 InFO，我們正在討論不同的路線圖。

Can we understand that for the same customer over the years with different generation, you are going to generate more revenue per customer per product?

我們是否可以理解，對於多年來不同世代的同一客戶，您將為每個客戶的每個產品產生更多收入？

In other words, are you going to package more and more chips or doing something more so that you can generate more revenue per customer?

換句話說，你打算包裝越來越多的芯片還是做更多的事情，這樣你就可以為每個客戶創造更多的收入？

And then the second question is you will expand to other customers.

然後第二個問題是您將擴展到其他客戶。

So how can we forecast your InFO revenue growth in the years ahead?

那麼，我們如何預測未來幾年您的 InFO 收入增長呢？

And also just to confirm, the CapEx for InFO this year is 10% of the total CapEx?

還要確認一下，今年 InFO 的資本支出佔總資本支出的 10%？

So that's almost double last year.

所以這幾乎是去年的兩倍。

So is that a leading indicator for your revenue growth?

那麼這是您收入增長的領先指標嗎？

Donald, you ask whether we package more chips or package more volume in the InFO business?

Donald，你問我們是在 InFO 業務中包裝更多芯片還是包裝更多數量？

Yes, per package.

是的，每個包裹。

In other words, you can charge more and more revenue per smartphone, per customer.

換句話說，您可以對每部智能手機、每位客戶收取越來越多的收入。

Let's say for one iPhone you generate $1 this generation.

假設你這一代人為一部 iPhone 產生了 1 美元。

Could that be $1.2, $1.3 the next generation?

下一代會是 1.2 美元、1.3 美元嗎？

And how fast it will grow?

它的增長速度有多快？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that.

讓我來回答。

We continue to improve the process and then coming out with the new generation of InFO technology.

我們繼續改進流程，然後推出新一代 InFO 技術。

That will have more applications and certainly we expect the revenue will go up.

這將有更多的應用程序，當然我們預計收入會增加。

Right?

正確的？

Profitability, that's our goal, of course.

盈利，這是我們的目標，當然。

And so if you're asking whether that with the same customer we continue to migrate into the new generation, the answer is yes.

因此，如果您問我們是否繼續向同一個客戶遷移到新一代，答案是肯定的。

And we are developing the technology that can be adopted by a lot of customers.

我們正在開發可以被很多客戶採用的技術。

Today we are not at that stage yet.

今天我們還沒有到那個階段。

Today it's a very specific, customized technology.

今天，它是一種非常具體的定制技術。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

And how can we predict the revenue growth pace of InFO?

我們如何預測 InFO 的收入增長速度？

We have a base.

我們有一個基地。

It's over USD100m by Q4.

到第四季度超過 1 億美元。

And more than USD400m next year, or some --?

明年超過 4 億美元，或者一些——？

Yes.

是的。

It will bemore than USD400m next year.

明年將超過4億美元。

And it will grow.

它會增長。

But I cannot give you exact number because we are working still with -- we're working with our customers.

但我不能給你確切的數字，因為我們仍在合作——我們正在與我們的客戶合作。

Today we just can tell you that we have a few large-volume customers.

今天我們只能告訴你，我們有幾個大批量的客戶。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Second question is for Chairman.

第二個問題是給主席的。

You just talked about you want to capture and be present in China.

你剛才談到你想捕捉並出現在中國。

But I noticed that TSMC has been generating 60%, 70% revenues from US customers over the years.

但我注意到台積電多年來一直從美國客戶那裡獲得 60%、70% 的收入。

But TSMC has never built a foundry -- there, you have a small foundry in the US.

但台積電從未建立過代工廠——在那裡，你在美國有一家小型代工廠。

That's right.

這是正確的。

What's the difference between China and US?

中國和美國有什麼區別？

Well that's because US and China are two different countries.

那是因為美國和中國是兩個不同的國家。

Well that we know.

好吧，我們知道。

But for doing business, what's the point?

但是做生意，有什麼意義呢？

They can come to Taiwan, it's even closer than US.

他們可以來台灣，比美國更近。

Well, I'm proud of the US.

嗯，我為美國感到驕傲。

But, US and China are two different countries.

但是，美國和中國是兩個不同的國家。

Even the Chinese will tell you that; the Mainland Chinese, I mean.

即使是中國人也會告訴你；大陸人，我的意思是。

Yes.

是的。

Did I answer that question?

我回答了那個問題嗎？

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

I wish to hear more.

我希望聽到更多。

Well I should say that we have used the phrase that our objective is to enhance our access to the Chinese market.

好吧，我應該說我們已經使用了我們的目標是加強我們進入中國市場的機會。

I've used that phrase -- we have used that phrase quite a few times.

我用過那個短語——我們已經用過這個短語很多次了。

And I must say that we don't say that in vain.

我必須說，我們並沒有徒勞地這麼說。

We say that with some degree of assurance from the authorities, some degree of assurance that building a plant there will indeed enhance our access to the Chinese market.

我們說，在當局一定程度的保證下，一定程度的保證，在那裡建廠確實會增加我們進入中國市場的機會。

And reversely, not building a plant there will not enhance.

相反，不在那裡建廠不會提高。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Next question comes from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題來自大和的 Rick Hsu。

Happy New Year, Mr. Chairman and all the management.

新年快樂，主席先生和所有管理層。

My first question is about the capacity.

我的第一個問題是關於容量的。

I know Lora talked about this year capacity increase is about 10%.

我知道 Lora 談到今年的產能增長大約是 10%。

Could you give us more color in terms of breakdown, 28-nanometer, 20 and 16 in terms of year-on-year increase, some rough idea for these different technology nodes?

能否在擊穿方面給我們更多的顏色，28 納米、20 和 16 的同比增長，這些不同技術節點的一些粗略想法？

I will not give you a breakdown by each node.

我不會按每個節點給你細分。

But what I can tell you is very big portion of our CapEx goes to 10-nanometer.

但我可以告訴你的是，我們資本支出的很大一部分用於 10 納米。

So you can imagine a majority -- vast majority of the CapEx increase will be on the leading-edge technology.

所以你可以想像大部分——資本支出增加的大部分將來自前沿技術。

He was asking about last year, 10% increase last year.

他問的是去年，去年增加了10%。

It's about this year, 10%?

大概是今年，10%？

You were talking about this year?

你說的是今年？

Yes, I'm talking about this year.

是的，我說的是今年。

You want me to give you breakdown.

你要我給你分解。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, I just wanted to get some idea.

是的，我只是想了解一下。

I know your 20 should be declining, because this year 20-nanometer is not your focus.

我知道你的 20 應該會下降，因為今年 20 納米不是你的重點。

And 16 and 10 should increase a lot, and 28 maybe not much.

16和10應該會增加很多，28可能不會很多。

But I just want to get some more color about how much increase or decrease by different technology node on a year-over-year basis.

但我只是想了解更多關於不同技術節點每年增加或減少多少的顏色。

What you said is correct.

你說的是對的。

And we are not increasing any 20-nanometer.

而且我們不會增加任何 20 納米。

It will be migrated to 16 or 10-nanometer along the way.

它將沿途遷移到 16 或 10 納米。

All the newly added capacity will be on 10-nanometer, as the vast majority capacity increase.

隨著絕大多數容量的增加，所有新增的容量都將是 10 納米。

Yes.

是的。

And 16 will continue to increase.

16 將繼續增加。

But we had a huge amount of CapEx last year for 16 build-out.

但去年我們有大量的資本支出用於 16 個擴建項目。

But this year we still spend some money, but it's tailing capacity.

但是今年我們還是要花一些錢，不過是尾礦產能。

I probably need to add that we also have productivity improvement in 16-nanometer.

我可能需要補充一點，我們在 16 納米方面也有生產力提升。

So that will give us capacity without spending much money.

因此，這將給我們提供容量而無需花費太多錢。

It's a very good point.

這是一個很好的觀點。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

And my second question is I recently talked to some of your large-volume fabless customers.

我的第二個問題是我最近與你們的一些大批量無晶圓廠客戶進行了交談。

And it seems to me that they're complaining that even they migrate to 16-nanometer this year, they're not going to enjoy much cost saving on per-unit basis.

在我看來，他們似乎在抱怨，即使他們今年遷移到 16 納米，他們也不會享受到每單位成本的多少節省。

So will you consider it, when you ramp up more 16-nanometer contribution, will you consider yield some pricing to your customers?

那麼你會考慮嗎，當你增加更多 16 納米的貢獻時，你會考慮為你的客戶提供一些定價嗎？

We did.

我們做到了。

And I'm not very sure that whom you talked to, but most of the customer enjoy that 16 FinFET, 16-nanometer performance and cost.

而且我不太確定您與誰交談，但大多數客戶都喜歡 16 FinFET、16 納米的性能和成本。

All right?

好的？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question comes from JPMorgan's Gokul Hariharan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question is on compute, since you already mentioned compute as one of the biggest drivers, high-performance computing.

我的第一個問題是關於計算的，因為您已經提到計算是最大的驅動因素之一，即高性能計算。

Now just wanted to understand that a little bit further.

現在只是想進一步了解這一點。

The traditional understanding of compute has been it's been an X86 Intel-dominated market.

對計算的傳統理解一直是 X86 英特爾主導的市場。

So when we talk about compute growth, should we think about TSMC taking -- TSMC enabling some of your customers to take share from that market?

因此，當我們談論計算增長時，我們是否應該考慮台積電佔據 - 台積電使您的一些客戶能夠從該市場獲得份額？

Or is it completely greenfield areas where there's no standards, like automotive and stuff like that you mentioned?

或者它是完全沒有標準的綠地領域，比如汽車和你提到的那些東西？

And since you mentioned this is a two-year kind of thing, where you start seeing growth coming through, could we have some quantification, if it's possible, in terms of what growth could be coming from compute as a segment?

既然你提到這是一個為期兩年的事情，你開始看到增長出現，如果可能的話，我們能否量化一下計算作為一個細分市場可能帶來的增長？

Right now I think what you define as compute is probably about 8% of revenues, 8% to 9% of revenues.

現在我認為你定義的計算可能是收入的 8%，收入的 8% 到 9%。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

When you -- when we talk about computing, we're really not just including the data center and PC tablets.

當你——當我們談論計算時，我們真的不僅僅包括數據中心和個人電腦平板電腦。

We also include the infrastructure as well as the edge computing devices.

我們還包括基礎設施以及邊緣計算設備。

So our -- my definition of computing is, actually for TSMC, is more opportunity in the infrastructure and edge computing.

所以我們 - 我對計算的定義實際上對於台積電來說是基礎設施和邊緣計算中的更多機會。

Among the edge computing I mentioned a couple of our innovator product advancement.

在邊緣計算中，我提到了我們的一些創新產品進步。

One of them is I mentioned about cars.

其中之一是我提到的汽車。

And that is an area of very active innovation we see.

這是我們看到的非常活躍的創新領域。

We work with our customers, working on it.

我們與客戶合作，致力於此。

And how far that product will come up is everybody's guess.

每個人都在猜測該產品會走多遠。

But if you want a paradigm, the semiconductor content of a car today is about 6 times of the average smartphones.

但如果你想要一個範式，今天汽車的半導體含量大約是普通智能手機的 6 倍。

And because of the innovation of that electronics in cars, we see this 6 times will increase to 10 times by the year of 2020.

並且由於汽車電子設備的創新，我們看到到 2020 年這個數字將增加 6 倍至 10 倍。

So that is the promising we see.

這就是我們看到的前景。

And also that is very, very practical purposes for that to be proliferated.

這也是擴散的非常非常實際的目的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And just a subset of that question, I think you mentioned about the ARM server efforts, of non-X86 server efforts.

我想你提到的只是這個問題的一個子集，關於 ARM 服務器的努力，非 X86 服務器的努力。

Could you give an update on what you're seeing on your customers' side, because I think until now that has been a very small proportion of the market.

您能否提供有關您在客戶方面看到的最新情況，因為我認為到目前為止，這只是市場的一小部分。

But we've seen ARM itself give pretty bullish guidance for 2020 in terms of 20% of the server market, etc.

但我們已經看到 ARM 本身在 20% 的服務器市場等方面給出了相當樂觀的 2020 年指導。

Could you give us some color in terms of what you're seeing, given that you're the foundry for pretty much everybody, as Chairman mentioned, in the ARM server market?

鑑於您是 ARM 服務器市場上幾乎所有人的代工廠，您能否就您所看到的內容給我們一些顏色？

Okay.

好的。

That's a tough question to answer.

這是一個很難回答的問題。

You know the datacenter and PC is a stronghold of a major player already.

您知道數據中心和 PC 已經是主要參與者的據點。

It's incumbent, very strong.

任重而道遠，非常強大。

And, however, the industry, many other players are looking for options at least.

然而，該行業，許多其他參與者至少正在尋找選擇。

So we see.

所以我們看到了。

Our view is we see a lot of innovators, product innovators working in that area.

我們的觀點是，我們看到很多創新者、產品創新者在該領域工作。

And following that is only the industry estimates about how far the ARMs can move into the space.

緊隨其後的是業界對 ARM 可以進入該領域多遠的估計。

And for the easier one, I think it will happen first in the tablet and PC.

而對於更簡單的，我認為它會首先出現在平板電腦和個人電腦上。

And I see, before 2020, range from 10% to 30%.

我看到，在 2020 年之前，這個比例在 10% 到 30% 之間。

It's in anybody's guess.

這是任何人的猜測。

But I just ensure you that a lot of innovators are working on that area and a lot of customers are looking forward to that happen.

但我只是向你保證，很多創新者都在這個領域工作，很多客戶都期待著這種情況發生。

Yes.

是的。

My second question is one of your bigger customers is moving to a competitor for a flagship chip.

我的第二個問題是您的一個大客戶正在轉向競爭對手的旗艦芯片。

I think that's very well-known right now.

我認為這是現在非常有名的。

One of our --?

我們的一個——？

One of your biggest fabless customers is moving to a competitor for a flagship chip this year.

您最大的無晶圓廠客戶之一今年將轉向競爭對手的旗艦芯片。

Now Chairman mentioned that in 2017 with 10 nanometer, you're going to start with extremely high market share and intend to keep that share.

現在董事長提到，2017年10納米，你將從極高的市場份額開始，並打算保持這個份額。

Could you share about -- could you think -- let us know what you're thinking is about winning back share in this customer, because historically we've seen whoever has left TSMC has come back maybe after one year, after one generation or two generations?

你能否分享一下——你能想一想——讓我們知道你在想什麼是為了贏回這個客戶的份額，因為從歷史上看，我們已經看到離開台積電的人可能會在一年後、一代人或兩代？

We are thinking about it all the time.

我們一直在考慮它。

And I'm not going to tell you anything more than that.

我不會告訴你更多的東西。

Okay.

好的。

So on the 10-nanometer side, so the confidence in terms of starting with extremely high market share, should we say this is going to be like higher than the 70%-plus market share you will have in 16-nanometer when you start in 2017?

所以在 10 納米方面，從極高的市場份額開始的信心，我們應該說這將高於你在 16 納米開始時擁有的 70% 以上的市場份額2017 年？

Not -- well I just don't want to be quantitative at this point.

不是——我只是不想在這一點上進行量化。

But actually that was how we started with almost every node.

但實際上這就是我們從幾乎每個節點開始的方式。

Now 16 turned out to be a discontinuity, 16.

現在 16 原來是不連續的，16。

Yes.

是的。

And we hated that.

我們討厭這樣。

And so a year and a half ago I vowed that we will recover it, and we have recovered it.

所以一年半前我發誓我們會恢復它，我們已經恢復了它。

But we would rather not have the same thing happen again.

但我們寧願不再發生同樣的事情。

So we want to put 10 back into where things were, where the order was before 16, yes.

所以我們想把 10 放回原來的位置，16 之前的順序，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I think we should go to the call.

我想我們應該去打電話。

Operator, please have the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接下一位來電者。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I just had a question on smartphones.

我剛問了一個關於智能手機的問題。

Can you talk about what growth you saw from smartphones in 2015 and how you see this trending in 2016, building on the rising silicon per unit that you see?

您能否談談您在 2015 年從智能手機中看到的增長以及您如何看待 2016 年的這種趨勢，建立在您看到的單位矽片不斷增長的基礎上？

Is he asking about the market or is he asking about TSMC?

他是在問市場還是在問台積電？

I think, Brett, you were asking about the market, right?

我想，布雷特，你問的是市場，對吧？

Yes, TSMC.

是的，台積電。

Okay.

好的。

No, no.

不，不。

Sorry, I'm asking about TSMC.

對不起，我問的是台積電。

TSMC.

台積電。

TSMC smartphone, yes.

台積電智能手機，是的。

TSMC's smartphone growth in 2015, whether -- well, whether we see rising silicon content continue in 2016?

台積電在 2015 年的智能手機增長是否——好吧，我們是否看到 2016 年矽含量繼續上升？

Mark, can you answer the question or do you even have the data that --?

馬克，你能回答這個問題嗎，或者你有沒有數據——？

I mentioned that for every high-end smartphone, our per-phone, the wafer value we get this year will be increased by 8%, 7% or 8%.

我提到，對於每一部高端智能手機，我們每部手機，我們今年獲得的晶圓價值將增加 8%、7% 或 8%。

So that number is smaller than from 2014 to 2015.

所以這個數字比 2014 年到 2015 年要小。

I don't remember the 2014 to 2015 number.

我不記得 2014 年到 2015 年的數字了。

Okay.

好的。

Let me add just a follow-up on 28-nanometer.

讓我補充一下關於 28 納米的後續內容。

I think you said in the past, Mark, that 28-nanometer is going to grow in revenue terms in 2016 after declining somewhat in 2015.

我想你過去說過，馬克，在 2015 年有所下降之後，28 納米的收入將在 2016 年增長。

Can you give us an update on how you see 28-nanometer outlook this year?

您能否向我們介紹一下您對今年 28 納米前景的看法？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Go ahead.

前進。

On the 28-nanometer revenue, C.C. can you comment?

關於 28 納米的收入，C.C.你能評論嗎？

We see the increased demand.

我們看到需求增加。

And you're asking about the revenue growth?

你問的是收入增長嗎？

Probably.

大概。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, what growth, yes.

是的，什麼增長，是的。

Probably flat considering that more demand but pricing drop.

考慮到更多的需求但價格下降，可能持平。

So you've got the probably flat.

所以你有可能是平的。

I would have to say that.

我不得不這麼說。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And just one final question.

最後一個問題。

Lora, I think you said China is 5% of CapEx this year, the China facility.

Lora，我想你說中國是今年資本支出的 5%，中國工廠。

Can you talk about what the total CapEx will be for China and how might you fill the fab?

您能否談談中國的總資本支出以及您將如何填補晶圓廠？

Will you be transferring equipment already in operation or will this be incremental capacity for TSMC?

您是否會轉移已經投入使用的設備，或者這將是台積電的增量產能？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This year the China CapEx will be about 5%.

今年中國資本支出約為 5%。

That's a couple of hundred million US dollars.

那是幾億美元。

This is a multiple-year project.

這是一個多年的項目。

And the current plan for China is to install 20,000 wafer as a starting point and to be manufacturing in 2018.

而中國目前的計劃是以20,000片晶圓為起點，2018年投產。

So from now, 2016 to 2017 will be the construction period for the new fab.

因此，從現在開始，2016 年到 2017 年將是新工廠的建設期。

So this year with be couple of hundred million.

所以今年有幾億。

Next year will be bigger.

明年會更大。

Actually 2017 will be the most bigger one.

實際上，2017 年將是最大的一年。

The total investment that, based on 20,000 wafer, is approximately $3b, multiple-year project.

基於 20,000 片晶圓的總投資約為 3b 美元，是多年期項目。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

We still have another caller on the line.

我們還有另一個來電者在線。

Operator, could you please proceed to the next caller?

接線員，您能繼續接下一位來電者嗎？

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for taking my question and happy New Year.

感謝您提出我的問題並祝您新年快樂。

I wanted to ask you about the key assumptions that are going to be the year-end guidance of 5% to 10%.

我想問你關於 5% 到 10% 的年終指導的關鍵假設。

What is your assumption if revenues were to be up 5% and what is your assumption if revenues are up 10%?

如果收入增長 5%，您的假設是什麼？如果收入增長 10%，您的假設是什麼？

As it relates to our revenue growth?

因為它與我們的收入增長有關？

As it relates to the semiconductor market growth?

因為它關係到半導體市場的增長？

TSMC's revenue guide of 5% to 10% growth.

台積電的營收指引增長5%至10%。

Yes.

是的。

Our -- wow.

我們的——哇。

That estimate is actually -- is made on two bases.

該估計實際上是基於兩個基礎進行的。

The first base is the semiconductor market growth and the foundries growth, which Mark already mentioned.

第一個基礎是半導體市場的增長和代工廠的增長，馬克已經提到了。

We estimate the semiconductor market growth will be 2% and the foundry growth will be 5% this year.

我們預計今年半導體市場增長 2%，代工增長 5%。

And we also have a few other relevant growth indices, such as fabless growth and our customers' collective growth, and, well, I think those are the most relevant indicators.

我們還有一些其他相關的增長指數，例如無晶圓廠增長和我們客戶的集體增長，我認為這些是最相關的指標。

And so that's the first base.

這就是第一壘。

That's the first basis on which we estimate our growth this year.

這是我們估計今年增長的第一個基礎。

The second basis that we do, we estimate, is from the field, from the regional, our own field sales estimates.

我們估計，我們所做的第二個基礎是來自現場，來自區域，我們自己的現場銷售估算。

Each region reports its own estimate of the growth in its region.

每個地區都報告了自己對該地區增長的估計。

Actually we have a third estimate, but the third estimate is basically a synthesis and a reconciliation between the first two.

其實我們有第三個估計，但是第三個估計基本上是前兩者的綜合和調和。

So I hope that answers your question.

所以我希望這能回答你的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Sure.

當然。

And just as a follow-up to this, I wanted to understand some of your conservativism built in this guide.

作為對此的跟進，我想了解您在本指南中建立的一些保守主義。

This time last year you were expecting revenue to grow by more than 15%.

去年這個時候，您預計收入將增長 15% 以上。

But unfortunately overall end market demand wasn't that strong.

但不幸的是，整體終端市場需求並不那麼強勁。

Now we're starting the year at a lower growth rate.

現在我們以較低的增長率開始了這一年。

What are the key assumptions for handset sell-through?

手機銷售的關鍵假設是什麼？

It seems to me that the Chinese handset OEMs are building inventory.

在我看來，中國手機 OEM 正在建立庫存。

There is a risk that sell-through is not going to be there.

存在銷售不存在的風險。

One of the key, leading US-based handset maker is facing some challenges.

總部位於美國的主要手機製造商之一正面臨一些挑戰。

And in that context, how much of a conservatism is dialed into these guidance?

在這種情況下，這些指導中有多少保守主義？

Well I think Mark said that our estimate of handset smartphone sell-through is 1.5b units worldwide.

好吧，我認為馬克說我們對全球手機智能手機銷量的估計是 1.5b 部。

8%, I think.

8%，我想。

8% growth over last year.

比去年增長8%。

Mehdi, I guess your question is whether or not we have been too conservative or been too optimistic about our forecast of the smartphone growth?

Mehdi，我想你的問題是我們對智能手機增長的預測是否過於保守或過於樂觀？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

Yes.

是的。

I have some -- let me add some comments on this question.

我有一些——讓我對這個問題添加一些評論。

Compare this year and last year, there is at least two major differences make --lead us to make the current forecast.

與今年和去年相比，至少有兩個主要差異——引導我們做出當前的預測。

One is that when we entered the beginning of last year, we did not know the inventory build-up is very, very high.

一個是我們去年初進入的時候，我們不知道庫存積累非常非常高。

I still remember 11 or 12 days above seasonal.

我還記得季節性以上的 11 或 12 天。

And then this year, however, we considered the drastic reduction of the inventory during the fourth quarter.

然而，今年，我們考慮了第四季度庫存的大幅減少。

We have a better estimate about the starting point of the year.

我們對今年的起點有了更好的估計。

And secondly, of course, is the macroeconomics of this year, as you know, is still several uncertain factors in it.

其次，當然是今年的宏觀經濟，大家知道，還有幾個不確定因素在裡面。

Therefore we were just taking those two factors in account to make our current forecast, and therefore it will lead to a bigger range.

因此，我們只是將這兩個因素考慮在內來做出我們目前的預測，因此它將導致更大的範圍。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you very much for detailed color.

非常感謝您提供詳細的顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

There are quite a few hands raised up.

有不少人舉手。

I will ask the people who have not yet had the chance to ask questions first.

我會先問那些還沒有機會提問的人。

And that first one goes to, all right, Sebastian, CLSA.

好吧，第一個發給 CLSA 的 Sebastian。

Thank you for taking my questions.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

So my first question is regarding the 10 nanometers.

所以我的第一個問題是關於 10 納米的。

So earlier Chairman said that he intends to maintain high market share initially at the beginning.

所以早些時候董事長說他最初打算保持較高的市場份額。

So do you have any sense in mind that what kind of revenue contribution you see by fourth quarter 2017?

那麼您是否知道到 2017 年第四季度您會看到什麼樣的收入貢獻？

Would it be similar to by 15% to 20% you had back in fourth quarter 2014 on 20 nanometers?

會不會與 2014 年第四季度 20 納米的 15% 到 20% 相似？

Well, C.C., do you have any idea?

好吧，C.C.，你有什麼想法嗎？

He's talking about 2017.

他說的是2017年。

Yes, I know.

是的，我知道。

Fourth quarter.

第四季。

The fourth quarter.

第四季。

If you -- I don't estimate customers' demand, but if I can give you an answer, that would be a little bit higher.

如果你——我不估計客戶的需求，但如果我能給你一個答案，那會高一點。

Because by every year --.

因為到了每一年——。

A little higher than --?

比——高一點？

You higher than the 20 nanometer in the fourth quarter of 2014.

你高於2014年第四季度的20納米。

Higher than the 16 we've had in the fourth quarter.

高於我們在第四季度的 16 個。

Okay.

好的。

Because the continual growth.

因為不斷的成長。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

So, and also on the 10 nanometers earlier, Bruce asked about the faster ramp.

所以，同樣在 10 納米之前，布魯斯詢問了更快的斜坡。

And C.C., you answered that will be faster ramp compared to the previous node.

和 C.C.，你回答說，與之前的節點相比，斜坡會更快。

So does that mean that the yield ramp or the yield learning curve will be faster?

那麼這是否意味著收益率斜坡或收益率學習曲線會更快？

That means you are going to reach the corporate average margin faster than the previous nodes.

這意味著您將比以前的節點更快地達到公司平均利潤率。

Well, not necessarily, because the margin is determined by price and cost.

好吧，不一定，因為利潤是由價格和成本決定的。

You may learn faster on the cost, but basically we look at the total Company structural profitability and we maintain that.

您可能會更快地了解成本，但基本上我們會查看公司的總體結構盈利能力，並且我們會保持這一點。

So I don't really particularly want to talk about node-by-node profitability.

所以我並不是特別想談論逐個節點的盈利能力。

Of course, in the past we have said, under pressure from you, how soon we'll reach corporate average, etc., etc.

當然，過去我們說過，在你的壓力下，我們多久能達到企業平均水平等等等等。

But today, and actually last few times, I kept assuring you that we are looking out.

但是今天，實際上是最近幾次，我一直向你保證，我們正在密切關注。

We're looking out for the corporate average.

我們正在尋找企業平均水平。

The corporate average of course has got the new node in it.

公司平均水平當然已經有了新的節點。

And the new node factor is likely to be a very important part of the corporate average.

而新的節點因素很可能是企業平均水平中非常重要的一部分。

But we looked at the whole thing, yes.

但我們看了整件事，是的。

Look, we manage a portfolio; we don't manage this single stock.

看，我們管理一個投資組合；我們不管理這隻股票。

I'm talking figuratively.

我是形像地說。

We manage a total portfolio of technologies, not just a single one.

我們管理一整套技術，而不僅僅是一項。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

My second question is -- sorry.

我的第二個問題是——對不起。

My second question is on specialty technologies that the -- we heard that a lot of the foundries, even the tier-two, tier-three foundries are promoting their specialty technologies for IOT and more-than-Moore.

我的第二個問題是關於專業技術的——我們聽說很多代工廠，甚至是二級、三級代工廠都在推廣他們的物聯網和摩爾以外的專業技術。

So we wonder what's the special strategy that TSMC has in this field.

所以我們想知道台積電在這個領域有什麼特殊的策略。

And do you think you lead those foundries by a lot?

你認為你領先那些代工廠很多嗎？

What was the question?

問題是什麼？

All right.

好的。

Sebastian's asking when we talk about specialty technologies, he also noticed that there are a number of other foundries that are also claiming to working on IOT and more and more.

當我們談論專業技術時，Sebastian 問到，他還注意到有許多其他代工廠也聲稱從事物聯網等工作。

What is going to be TSMC's differentiations?

台積電的差異化將是什麼？

Do we have a substantial lead over other foundries?

我們是否比其他代工廠有很大的領先優勢？

Definitely we differentiate by the customers trusting us.

當然，我們通過信任我們的客戶來區分。

We differentiate by the technology we have.

我們通過我們擁有的技術來區分。

We differentiate by our manufacturing ability.

我們通過我們的製造能力來區分。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So what kind of the growth of these specialty technologies do you expect to contribute to TSMC in the next five years?

那麼這些專業技術的增長，您預計未來五年對台積電有何貢獻？

C.C.?

C.C.？

Would you please repeat your question again?

請您再重複一遍您的問題好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

How much will IOT contribute to our revenue?

物聯網將為我們的收入貢獻多少？

I think that's your question, right?

我想這是你的問題，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Chairman.

謝謝主席。

All I can say is increasing.

我只能說越來越多。

I give you a number, a specific number on the 8-inch wafers.

我給你一個數字，一個 8 英寸晶圓上的特定數字。

Now it's moving into the 12-inch wafer business and it's increasing.

現在它正在進入 12 英寸晶圓業務，並且還在不斷增加。

So it will depend on the market situation, so how fast that IOT will grow.

所以這將取決於市場情況，物聯網的增長速度有多快。

All right?

好的？

The growth rate is enormous but the base is relatively thin.

增長率巨大，但基數相對薄弱。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next question goes to Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題是摩根士丹利的查理陳。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

My first question is on the capital intensity.

我的第一個問題是關於資本密集度。

So if we average out this year and the last year capacity is around $9b per year.

因此，如果我們今年平均下來，去年的產能約為每年 9b 美元。

And that is similar level to 2014 CapEx.

這與 2014 年的資本支出水平相似。

And our revenue growth is growing at 10%, and this year high single digit.

而且我們的收入增長正在以 10% 的速度增長，而且是今年的高個位數。

So that means capital intensity is declining.

這意味著資本密集度正在下降。

So I would like to get your updates also on the capital intensity, whether this is an industry phenomenon or it is because of much better execution from TSMC.

因此，我還想了解您關於資本密集度的最新信息，無論這是行業現像還是台積電執行得更好。

Well we predicted our capital intensity, the way you define it, CapEx divided by current year revenue, we predicted quite a few years ago that it would go down, and it's going down.

好吧，我們預測了我們的資本強度，你定義它的方式，資本支出除以當年的收入，我們幾年前就預測它會下降，而且還在下降。

So the update is that, yes, our prediction was correct.

所以更新是，是的，我們的預測是正確的。

It will go down.

它會下降。

But I think Charlie's question is whether or not this decline is TSMC-specific or it is an industry-wide phenomenon.

但我認為查理的問題是，這種下降是台積電特有的還是整個行業的現象。

I think it's -- I hope, I do think it's TSMC-specific because we -- I think we do a better job in improving our asset effectiveness.

我認為這是 - 我希望，我確實認為這是針對台積電的，因為我們 - 我認為我們在提高資產效率方面做得更好。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And then my next question is on potential dividend payout increase.

然後我的下一個問題是潛在的股息支付增加。

And so, Lora, can you quantify the increase of your cash dividend payout this year, no matter in dollar per share or the payout percentage?

那麼，Lora，你能否量化今年現金股息支付的增長，無論是每股美元還是支付百分比？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I said we consider an increase, but we need to discuss with the Board.

我說我們考慮增加，但我們需要與董事會討論。

Before we do that, I will rather not to quantify that.

在我們這樣做之前，我寧願不量化它。

But I can tell, it's not going to be a trivial number.

但我可以說，這不會是一個微不足道的數字。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Now there are follow-up questions from Credit Suisse, Randy.

現在有來自瑞士信貸蘭迪的後續問題。

Randy Abrams.

蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Yes.

是的。

The follow up, in the pack, your currency last year was TWD31.7.

接下來，在包中，您去年的貨幣是 TWD31.7。

And we're currently at TWD33.5.

我們目前的價格是 TWD33.5。

Could you clarify the 5% to 10% sales and margin, if that's US dollar?

如果是美元，您能否澄清 5% 到 10% 的銷售額和利潤率？

So in NT dollar you would grow 10% to 15%?

那麼以新台幣計算，你會增長 10% 到 15% 嗎？

And then also for margin, if structural profitability, if that factors a currency benefit.

然後還有利潤率，如果是結構性盈利能力，如果這會影響貨幣收益。

Sorry, I need to hear your numbers again.

抱歉，我需要再次聽到你的電話號碼。

Well Lora will answer the question, but I was curious.

好吧，洛拉會回答這個問題，但我很好奇。

I want to hear your numbers.

我想听聽你的電話號碼。

So NT dollar, like in the packet, it was TWD31.7 for the average last year.

所以新台幣，就像包裡一樣，去年平均是TWD31.7。

Today it's TWD33.49.

今天是TWD33.49。

So you're getting a pretty big benefit both on sales and margin.

因此，您在銷售和利潤方面都獲得了相當大的好處。

Well, but today it's only, what, the 14th day of the year.

好吧，但今天只是，什麼，一年中的第 14 天。

Okay, but --.

好吧，但是——。

Well will you make a prediction to me, please, what this year's exchange rate will be?

那麼請你給我預測一下，今年的匯率是多少？

I can't predict the exchange rate, but is your guidance based on US dollar -- US dollar or is it based on local currency?

我無法預測匯率，但您的指導是基於美元 - 美元還是基於當地貨幣？

Well anyway, look -- well Lora, why don't you?

不管怎樣，看——好吧，勞拉，你為什麼不呢？

You heard his question, right?

你聽到他的問題了，對吧？

Okay.

好的。

I heard you.

我聽到你了。

I think you're probably saying we are conservative, and we have not reflected the potential upside from FX gain.

我認為您可能是在說我們是保守的，我們沒有反映外匯收益的潛在上行空間。

We have said many years ago there's a rule of thumb, any 1% of exchange rate change we have about 0.4 percentage point to our margin.

多年前我們已經說過，有一條經驗法則，任何 1% 的匯率變化我們都會對我們的保證金產生大約 0.4 個百分點的影響。

This formula still works.

這個公式仍然有效。

So you can work on your math.

所以你可以在你的數學上工作。

If the exchange rate moves 1%, that's 0.4 percentage point to our profitability.

如果匯率變動 1%，我們的盈利能力將下降 0.4 個百分點。

And we sell 100 -- almost 100% in US dollars.

我們出售 100 台——幾乎 100% 以美元計價。

And our guidance was in NT dollars, based on a 33 -- 32.5 exchange rate for the first quarter.

我們的指導是新台幣，基於第一季度 33 - 32.5 的匯率。

And that's your full year is based on that, the 5% to 10%?

那是你的全年是基於那個，5%到10%？

No, no, no.

不不不。

This is only -- we are talking about the first quarter.

這只是 - 我們談論的是第一季度。

You're saying Chairman's 5% to 10% growth based on what?

你說董事長5%到10%的增長是基於什麼？

Yes, based on what currency?

是的，基於什麼貨幣？

Is it based on US dollar?

是基於美元嗎？

The 5% to 10% growth rate, revenue growth rate, it will be either US dollars or NT.

5%到10%的增長率，收入增長率，要么是美元，要么是新台幣。

Yes, it will be all within that range.

是的，都在這個範圍內。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

And then the follow-up question.

然後是後續問題。

You had a lot of reuse from 20 to 16.

從 20 到 16，你有很多重用。

28's had a long life.

28歲的壽命很長。

But as you start to migrate customers to 16 with the FFC, can 28 be migrated efficiently to FinFET or 10 or do you expect to keep that node at 28?

但是當您開始使用 FFC 將客戶遷移到 16 個時，28 個是否可以有效地遷移到 FinFET 或 10 個，或者您希望將該節點保持在 28 個？

Can you migrate and reuse the 28 if demand starts to fall in the next couple of years?

如果未來幾年需求開始下降，您能否遷移和重用 28？

I'm sorry, I didn't hear the question.

對不起，我沒有聽到這個問題。

So, Randy, you are asking whether or not 28-nanometer capacity can be migrated to produce FinFET?

那麼，Randy，您是在問是否可以遷移 28 納米容量來生產 FinFET？

28-nano can be migrated to what?

28-nano可以遷移到什麼地方？

Produce FinFET tech.

生產 FinFET 技術。

Produce FinFET?

生產 FinFET？

28 to FinFET?

28 到 FinFET？

Well, I imagine -- well does somebody --?

好吧，我想——有人會——？

Well the simple answer is some of it, yes.

嗯，簡單的答案是其中的一些，是的。

Okay?

好的？

Some of it will be.

其中一些會是。

But do you have a bit more detail?

但是你有更多的細節嗎？

We have done that.

我們已經做到了。

But we see the 28-nanometer demand continue to be sustaining what the capacity we are having today.

但我們看到 28 納米的需求繼續維持我們今天的產能。

So hopefully we stay competitive and keep that demand.

所以希望我們保持競爭力並保持這種需求。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

There's a hand.

有一隻手。

We still have one-micron, one-micron equipment that's being utilized now.

我們現在仍在使用一微米、一微米的設備。

So to convert one node of the equipment to another node is not our first priority.

所以將設備的一個節點轉換為另一個節點並不是我們的首要任務。

Okay.

好的。

I see a hand over there, but I do not really know you.

我在那邊看到一隻手，但我並不真正認識你。

Can you identify yourself?

你能認出自己嗎？

Yes.

是的。

My name is Ken Koyanagi, with Nikkei Asian Review, from Japan.

我是來自日本的《日經亞洲評論》的 Ken Koyanagi。

I understand you made a decision about China investment after last fall election.

據我了解，您在去年秋季大選後做出了有關中國投資的決定。

And I'm just curious how you reached that condition -- decision, after assessing how -- what particular risks are involved in this investment?

我只是好奇你是如何達到這個條件的——在評估之後做出決定——這項投資涉及哪些特定風險？

How did you assess the political risks?

您如何評估政治風險？

Especially after the election and right before the election, which will probably change the political landscape of the cross-strait relationship?

尤其是在大選之後和大選之前，這可能會改變兩岸關係的政治格局？

What do you mean by political risks?

政治風險是什麼意思？

Well I think you can think of a lot of scenarios.

嗯，我想你可以想到很多場景。

There will be more tensions between the two territories between the channel, strait, and which might affect how you will be treated by the Mainland Chinese government.

海峽和海峽之間的兩個領土之間將會更加緊張，這可能會影響中國大陸政府將如何對待你。

Well we are a business, and a lot of businesses, a lot of Taiwan businesses are in China.

好吧，我們是一家企業，很多企業，很多台灣企業都在中國。

And we are really among the ones that are investing in China the least.

我們確實是在中國投資最少的國家之一。

We are among Taiwan companies, I think, we are perhaps the -- if we consider the relative size and so on, we still have more than 90% of our people, of our employees in Taiwan.

我們是台灣公司之一，我認為，如果我們考慮相對規模等等，我們仍然有超過 90% 的員工，我們的員工在台灣。

And the capital investment we have made in China so far was miniscule compared to the investment that we have made in Taiwan.

到目前為止，我們在中國所做的資本投資與我們在台灣的投資相比是微不足道的。

So yes, we have considered all these risks.

所以是的，我們已經考慮了所有這些風險。

In fact, we've discussed our proposal with a lot of people.

事實上，我們已經與很多人討論了我們的提案。

So -- and we did reach this decision of making investment in China, building a plant, and also setting up a design center, a design service center.

所以——我們確實做出了在中國投資、建廠、設立設計中心、設計服務中心的決定。

That's important too.

這也很重要。

That's important for enhancing our access into the Chinese market.

這對於加強我們進入中國市場的渠道非常重要。

So yes, we have considered all these risks.

所以是的，我們已經考慮了所有這些風險。

Yes.

是的。

Well, if you call them risks.

好吧，如果你稱它們為風險。

It seems to me it's -- a lot of people have -- well, the US, emerging companies have made a lot of investments in China too.

在我看來，很多人都有——嗯，美國新興公司也在中國進行了大量投資。

And so yes.

所以是的。

HSBC, Steven Pelayo, has a follow-up question.

匯豐銀行 Steven Pelayo 有一個後續問題。

There's been an unprecedented amount of semiconductor M&A in the last, I don't know, 15 months or so, more than the last 15 years.

在過去的 15 個月左右，比過去 15 年還多，最近出現了前所未有的半導體併購數量。

I'm just curious if you're seeing any short-term impacts, as these companies consolidate and rationalize, that's impacting any of your near-term demand?

我只是好奇你是否看到任何短期影響，因為這些公司合併和合理化，這會影響你的任何近期需求？

And then if you have any thoughts maybe longer term in terms of the purchasing power of a much larger, stronger customer?

然後，您是否對更大、更強大的客戶的購買力有更長遠的想法？

Well the three big ones last year, as far as we were concerned, were Intel, Intel's acquisition of Altera, Avago and Broadcom, NXP and Freescale, yes.

就我們而言，去年的三大巨頭是英特爾，英特爾收購了 Altera、Avago 和博通，恩智浦和飛思卡爾，是的。

All six of them, I'm talking about both the acquirer and the acquired, all six of them were our good customers.

他們六個，我說的是收購方和被收購方，他們六個都是我們的好客戶。

And after the combination there'll be three.

組合之後會有三個。

And I hope and I have reason to expect that the three combined entities will continue to be our good customers.

我希望並且我有理由期望這三個合併後的實體將繼續成為我們的好客戶。

That's what being everybody's foundry means.

這就是成為每個人的代工的意思。

One more follow up.

再來一波。

That's not your question?

這不是你的問題嗎？

Your question?

你的問題？

Well near term as well.

近期也不錯。

I'm curious as they're trying to rationalize their businesses and consolidate these two, are they slowing maybe their order activity to figure out what their final company's ultimately going to look like?

我很好奇他們正試圖合理化他們的業務並整合這兩者，他們是否會放慢訂單活動以弄清楚他們最終的公司最終會是什麼樣子？

Are you seeing any short-term impacts?

您是否看到任何短期影響？

No, we don't see any short-term impact.

不，我們沒有看到任何短期影響。

No?

不？

Okay.

好的。

And then my second question was you had an anchor customer at 16-nanometer in the second half of 2015 that appears to be staying on 16-nanometer as they go into 2016.

然後我的第二個問題是，您在 2015 年下半年有一個 16 納米的主力客戶，隨著他們進入 2016 年，他們似乎將停留在 16 納米。

Does this mean there could be die size increases as they add more functionality and perhaps more wafers needed from you?

這是否意味著芯片尺寸可能會增加，因為它們會增加更多的功能，並且可能需要您提供更多的晶圓？

C.C.?

C.C.？

Your question is whether they increase the die size?

您的問題是它們是否會增加裸片尺寸？

I'm saying that two years ago you went from 20 to 16, so you had this node jump so they could -- your customers could keep their die size the same by adding more functionality.

我是說兩年前你從 20 到 16，所以你有這個節點跳躍，所以他們可以 - 你的客戶可以通過添加更多功能來保持他們的 die 尺寸相同。

Now they're staying at 16-nanometer, some of the anchor customers, and so I'm wondering if maybe that means the die size is going to increase and thus require more wafers from TSMC to meet the same units.

現在他們停留在 16 納米，一些主要客戶，所以我想知道這是否意味著芯片尺寸會增加，因此需要更多台積電的晶圓來滿足相同的單元。

Well, I don't comment on the die size, but I can tell you that they add a lot of functionality inside.

好吧，我不評論模具尺寸，但我可以告訴你，它們在內部添加了很多功能。

So you look at the smartphone, they have become better and better.

所以你看看智能手機，它們已經變得越來越好。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Due to the time consideration, we will conclude our conference at this point.

由於時間關係，我們將在此結束我們的會議。

So before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within three hours from now.

因此，在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起三個小時內將可以看到會議的重播。

Transcript will be available 24 hours from now.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

And they are all available through our website.

它們都可以通過我們的網站獲得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。