台積電 ADR (TSM) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2015 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2015 年第三季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dialed-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO Ms. Lora Ho will summarize our operations in the third quarter, followed by the guidance for the fourth quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在第三季度的運營情況，然後是第四季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's two co-CEOs Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei and CFO Lora Ho will jointly provide our key messages.

之後，台積電的兩位聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei 和首席財務官 Lora Ho 將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainty which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our Web -- on our press release.

請參閱我們網站上出現的安全港通知——在我們的新聞稿中。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO Ms. Lora Ho for summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台交給台積電的首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以了解運營總結和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to join us today.

歡迎今天加入我們。

I will start with the financial summary for the third quarter and followed by the guidance of the fourth quarter.

我將從第三季度的財務摘要開始，然後是第四季度的指導。

In the third quarter, demand for TSMC's wafers was essentially flat with the second quarter, mainly reflecting customers' cautious inventory management.

第三季度台積電晶圓需求與第二季度基本持平，主要反映客戶謹慎的庫存管理。

However, a stronger-than-forecasted US dollar against the NT dollar caused our third-quarter revenue to exceed the high-end of our guidance even in July.

然而，美元兌新台幣強於預期，導致我們第三季度的收入即使在 7 月份也超過了我們指導的高端。

On a sequential basis, revenue increased by 3.4% to NTD213b, and gross margin decreased 0.3 percentage points to 48.2% as the benefit from higher capacity utilization and variable exchange rates were outweighed by unfavorable inventory management and the margin dilution from 16 nanometer.

在環比基礎上，收入增長 3.4% 至 NTD213b，毛利率下降 0.3 個百分點至 48.2%，原因是產能利用率和可變匯率帶來的好處被不利的庫存管理和 16 納米的利潤稀釋所抵消。

During this quarter we ceased TSMC's solar operations and incurred a loss of NTD2.8b.

在本季度，我們停止了台積電的太陽能業務，並蒙受了 NTD2.8b 的虧損。

Among the total, about NTD400m was recorded in cost of goods sold and NTD2.4b in other operating expenses.

其中，銷貨成本約新台幣4億元，其他營業費用為新台幣2.4b。

The loss dragged down our operating margin by 1.3 percentage points and reduced our EPS by about NTD0.08.

虧損拖累我們的營業利潤率下降了 1.3 個百分點，並使我們的每股收益減少了約新台幣 0.08 元。

Operating margin in the third quarter decreased 0.6 percentage points to 36.9%.

第三季度營業利潤率下降0.6個百分點至36.9%。

Without this one-time solar write-off, our operating margin would have been 38.2%.

如果沒有這一一次性太陽能沖銷，我們的營業利潤率將為 38.2%。

For non-operating items, ASML shares' disposal gains were NTD3.7b or NTD0.13 in EPS.

對於非經營性項目，ASML 股份的處置收益為每股收益 NTD3.7b 或 NTD0.13。

For comparison, in the second quarter we recorded NTD20b disposal gains on ASML and Vanguard shares.

相比之下，在第二季度，我們記錄了 ASML 和 Vanguard 股票的 NTD20b 出售收益。

With all these items, our third quarter EPS was NTD2.91.

加上所有這些項目，我們第三季度的每股收益為 NTD2.91。

Now let's take a look at revenue by application.

現在讓我們看看按應用劃分的收入。

During the third quarter, communications, computer, consumer, and industrial increased 1%, 15%, 3% and 11% respectively.

第三季度，通信、計算機、消費和工業分別增長1%、15%、3%和11%。

These numbers reflect the change in favorable foreign exchange rate already.

這些數字已經反映了有利外匯匯率的變化。

In terms of revenue by technology, we are pleased to report the first quarter of 16 nanometer volume shipment.

在按技術劃分的收入方面，我們很高興地報告第一季度 16 納米的出貨量。

16 nanometer and 20 nanometer combined contributed 21% of our total wafer revenue in the third quarter.

16 納米和 20 納米合計占我們第三季度晶圓總收入的 21%。

Moving to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of NTD525b.

轉到資產負債表，我們以新台幣 525b 的現金和有價證券結束了第三季度。

Current liabilities decreased by NTD108b mainly as we paid out NTD117b of cash dividend in July.

流動負債減少 NTD108b 主要是由於我們在 7 月份支付了 NTD117b 的現金股息。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 2 days to 42 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 2 天至 42 天。

Days of inventory decreased by 3 days to 59 days as we now have lower days in work-in-process inventories and we shipped the 20 nanometer wafers we pre-built last quarter.

庫存天數減少了 3 天至 59 天，因為我們現在的在製品庫存天數減少了，而且我們在上個季度預裝了 20 納米晶圓。

Lastly, I would like to make a few comments on cash, cash flow and CapEx.

最後，我想就現金、現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the third quarter we generated NTD118b cash from operations, invested NTD70b in capital expenditure and paid out NTD117b cash dividend.

在第三季度，我們從運營中產生了 NTD118b 現金，將 NTD70b 投資於資本支出並支付了 NTD117b 現金股息。

Additionally, we received about NTD15b from disposal of ASML shares and borrowed NTD28b in short-term loans for currency-hedging purpose.

此外，我們從出售ASML股票中獲得約15b新台幣，並藉入28b新台幣的短期貸款用於貨幣對沖目的。

As a result, our cash balance decreased NTD13b to NTD516b at the end of the third quarter.

因此，我們的現金餘額在第三季度末減少了 NTD13b 至 NTD516b。

So, I just finished the summary of the third quarter financial outcome.

所以，我剛剛完成了第三季度財務結果的總結。

Now let me turn to the fourth-quarter outlook.

現在讓我談談第四季度的展望。

Due to the weaker-than-expected end-market demand, customers continue to manage inventory cautiously.

由於終端市場需求弱於預期，客戶繼續謹慎管理庫存。

Meanwhile, 16 nanometer will ramp strongly and contribute more significant revenue in the fourth quarter.

同時，16納米將強勁增長，並在第四季度貢獻更大的收入。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumption of $1 to NTD32.71, we expect our fourth-quarter revenue to be between NTD201 and NTD204 billion, gross profit margin to be between 47.5% and 49.5%, and operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌 32.71 新台幣的匯率假設，我們預計第四季度的收入在 201 新台幣和 2040 億新台幣之間，毛利率在 47.5% 和 49.5% 之間，營業利潤率在36.5% 和 38.5%。

You may notice that the midpoint of gross margin guidance is slightly higher than third-quarter gross margin, despite lower revenue.

您可能會注意到，儘管收入較低，但毛利率指導的中點略高於第三季度毛利率。

This is because we expect our cost improvement and favorable inventory valuation adjustment to fully offset the impact from lower capacity utilizations.

這是因為我們預計我們的成本改善和有利的庫存估值調整將完全抵消產能利用率下降的影響。

In addition, the expiration of the remaining hedging contract on ASML shares will contribute about NTD0.01 per share in the fourth quarter.

此外，ASML股票剩餘的對沖合約到期，將在第四季度貢獻約0.01新台幣/股。

And that will be the end of the total accounting treatment.

這將是總會計處理的結束。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Now let me turn the podium to co-CEO Mark Liu for his comments.

現在讓我把講台轉給聯合首席執行官 Mark Liu 發表評論。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

I would like to give you some remarks, some messages here.

我想在這裡給你一些意見，一些信息。

My message has three parts.

我的信息分為三個部分。

First, I will talk about near-term demand.

首先，我將談談近期需求。

I will describe the background color.

我將描述背景顏色。

And I'll talk about TSMC's long-term growth drivers.

我將談談台積電的長期增長動力。

Then the third part is leading-edge technology development update.

第三部分是前沿技術開發更新。

Now first, the near-term demand.

現在首先是近期需求。

This year, due to a weaker global economy, a stronger US dollar environment and a volatile financial market, the electronic device market has been negatively impacted, resulting in a lack of growth in the overall semiconductor market.

今年，由於全球經濟疲軟、美元環境走強以及金融市場動盪，電子設備市場受到負面影響，導致整體半導體市場增長乏力。

In addition, we see the unexpected slowdown of the economy in China since the Q1, resulting in a continuous sluggish smartphone demand in China.

此外，我們看到一季度以來中國經濟意外放緩，導致中國智能手機需求持續低迷。

This led to our relatively flat revenue growth in the third quarter.

這導致我們第三季度的收入增長相對平穩。

And we think the inventory level in the fabless industry will be still above seasonal normal by about 10 days at the end of the third quarter.

我們認為，到第三季度末，無晶圓行業的庫存水平仍將高於季節性正常水平約 10 天。

Looking forward, we see the active inventory reduction actions in the fabless companies continue into the fourth quarter.

展望未來，我們看到無晶圓公司積極的庫存削減行動將持續到第四季度。

Nonetheless, our accelerated ramp up of 16 FinFET Plus technology, supporting high-end smartphone market, did uplift the otherwise weak wafer demand.

儘管如此，我們加速提升 16 FinFET Plus 技術以支持高端智能手機市場，確實提振了原本疲軟的晶圓需求。

Therefore we forecast a moderate decline, about 4% to 5% of revenue, from the previous quarter.

因此，我們預測與上一季度相比，收入將溫和下降約 4% 至 5%。

We estimate that the fabless industry inventory will likely settle to a seasonal level towards the end of this year, albeit some uncertainty on this still exists.

我們估計，無晶圓行業庫存可能會在今年年底前穩定在季節性水平，儘管這仍然存在一些不確定性。

Given the fourth-quarter guidance, TSMC should be able to deliver a double-digit growth, at about 10% to 11% year on year in 2015, thanks partially to the stronger US dollar.

鑑於第四季度的指引，台積電應該能夠實現兩位數的增長，2015 年同比增長約 10% 至 11%，部分歸功於美元走強。

Our 2015 forecast of the growth of smartphone unit shipment is 10%, PC for the industry is minus 6%, tablet minus 14%, digital consumer electronics minus 6%.

我們對 2015 年智能手機出貨量增長預測為 10%，行業 PC 為負 6%，平板電腦為負 14%，數字消費電子產品為負 6%。

The semiconductor industry growth is about zero percent.

半導體行業的增長率約為零。

And our fabless industry growth is minus 5%.

我們的無晶圓廠行業增長率為負 5%。

The next part I will talk about TSMC's long-term growth driver.

下一部分我會談談台積電的長期增長動力。

In the past three to four years, the growth of smartphone market has propelled TSMC's growth.

在過去的三四年裡，智能手機市場的增長推動了台積電的增長。

Recently, we see the total unit growth of smartphone appears to be slowing.

最近，我們看到智能手機的總單位增長似乎正在放緩。

However, the silicon content in all segments of smartphone continues to increase.

然而，智能手機所有細分市場的矽含量都在不斷增加。

This silicon content increase particularly shows in the high-end smartphone.

這種矽含量的增加在高端智能手機中尤為明顯。

For example, the unit growth of high-end smartphone this year will be about flat, but the silicon content of the high-end smartphone will still have a mid-teen percentage growth.

例如，今年高端智能手機的單位增長將基本持平，但高端智能手機的矽含量仍將有 10% 左右的增長。

We see the bifurcation of high-end and mid, low-end smartphone markets continues.

我們看到高端和中低端智能手機市場的分化仍在繼續。

And the high-end smartphones, which provide richer features, higher performance and lower power consumption will continue to drive the demand of leading-edge technologies.

而功能更豐富、性能更高、功耗更低的高端智能手機將繼續推動對前沿技術的需求。

We stand to benefit from this trend.

我們將從這一趨勢中受益。

Smartphone will continue to provide growth momentum for TSMC in the next two to three years.

智能手機將在未來兩到三年繼續為台積電提供增長動力。

TSMC holds our corporate mission of being the trusted technology and capacity supplier in the logic semiconductor industry for years to come.

台積電的企業使命是在未來幾年成為邏輯半導體行業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。

We work closely with many of our partners and collaborate with them to produce the best product in many market segments, each with differentiations of its own.

我們與許多合作夥伴密切合作，並與他們合作，在許多細分市場中生產出最好的產品，每個細分市場都有自己的差異化。

From that, we see several drivers of future demand growth.

由此，我們看到了未來需求增長的幾個驅動因素。

It is very encouraging.

這是非常令人鼓舞的。

Three areas that we will soon add to the growth of TSMC in the coming years; first computing market.

未來幾年我們將很快增加台積電增長的三個領域；第一個計算市場。

In addition to the smartphones, we see faster growth of processor unit demand in many applications.

除了智能手機之外，我們還看到許多應用中的處理器單元需求增長更快。

With the Internet traffic near exponentially increasing, people are to extract intelligence out of the mountains of data.

隨著互聯網流量幾乎呈指數級增長，人們需要從海量數據中提取情報。

Extensive computation not only needs to be done in the data center, much must be done in the network as well as the distributed edge of the network.

廣泛的計算不僅需要在數據中心完成，還必須在網絡以及網絡的分佈式邊緣完成。

Image processor, CPU for automotive, CPU and GPU for augmented reality and virtual reality are examples.

圖像處理器、用於汽車的 CPU、用於增強現實和虛擬現實的 CPU 和 GPU 就是示例。

Second, fabless system company.

二是無晶圓系統公司。

We now see a new breed of fabless system companies coming to join the plate of semiconductor product innovations.

我們現在看到新一代無晶圓系統公司加入半導體產品創新的行列。

With the enhanced SoC integration and systems software and hardware integration, new usage models with brand new markets are opening up for the semiconductor industry.

隨著 SoC 集成和系統軟硬件集成的增強，半導體行業正在開闢具有全新市場的新使用模式。

We have been working with these fabless system companies for several years.

多年來，我們一直與這些無晶圓系統公司合作。

Third, Internet of Things.

第三，物聯網。

As billions of things are connected to Internet with sophisticated computing and analysis, they soon will become intelligent enough to create new user experiences and to improve the efficiency in many aspects of life, work and leisure.

隨著數十億物通過複雜的計算和分析連接到互聯網，它們很快將變得足夠智能，以創造新的用戶體驗並提高生活、工作和休閒的許多方面的效率。

Recently we see fast innovation taking place in areas such as cars, drones, robots, wearables and smartphone devices.

最近，我們看到汽車、無人機、機器人、可穿戴設備和智能手機設備等領域正在發生快速創新。

Working with innovators around the world, we continue to see the insatiable need for performance of leading-edge technologies.

與世界各地的創新者合作，我們繼續看到對領先技術性能的永不滿足的需求。

We also see the need for advanced packaging technologies to increase the overall system performance.

我們還看到需要先進的封裝技術來提高整體系統性能。

Thus, we will continue to increase the pace of our leading-edge technology development.

因此，我們將繼續加快前沿技術開發的步伐。

Leading-edge technology will continue to be the major driver of TSMC's future growth.

領先技術將繼續成為台積電未來增長的主要動力。

The third part, I'd like to update you about our leading-edge technology development.

第三部分，我想向您介紹我們領先的技術開發。

Our 10-nanometer technology development is well on track.

我們的 10 納米技術開發進展順利。

This technology has a logic density of 2.1 times of its previous generation, that's 16 FinFET Plus, with performance of 20% enhancement or a power consumption reduction of 40%.

該技術的邏輯密度是上一代16 FinFET Plus的2.1倍，性能提升20%或功耗降低40%。

During this quarter, we will freeze the process and begin technology qualification for our 10-nanometer technology.

在本季度，我們將凍結流程並開始對我們的 10 納米技術進行技術認證。

Customer product tape-outs will soon begin in next spring,

明年春天即將開始客戶產品流片，

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology will fully leverage of our 10-nanometer yield learning and the progress of our 7 nanometer is well on track as well.

台積電的 7 納米技術將充分利用我們的 10 納米良率學習，並且我們的 7 納米的進展也順利進行。

The migration from 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer provides substantial improvement in performance, power and density.

從 10 納米到 7 納米的遷移極大地提高了性能、功率和密度。

We are very happy to inform you that fully functional SRAMs on our 7 nanometer have already been demonstrated.

我們很高興地通知您，我們 7 納米的全功能 SRAM 已經得到演示。

On advanced packaging development, our InFO technology will enter high-volume production with our 16-nanometer technology next year.

在先進封裝開發方面，我們的 InFO 技術將於明年以我們的 16 納米技術進入量產階段。

We are currently working on the second-generation InFO technology for several projects of system integration on 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer.

我們目前正在為多個 10 納米和 7 納米系統集成項目開發第二代 InFO 技術。

That is my key messages.

這是我的關鍵信息。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

I will turn the podium to C.C. Wei.

我會把領獎台轉給 C.C.魏。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

I will update you the status of our fab operations on the following topics.

我將就以下主題向您更新我們的晶圓廠運營狀態。

First one, 28 nanometer.

第一個，28 納米。

Due to customers expediting their inventory management, as Mark just pointed out, the demand for our 28 nanometer has been reduced in the fourth quarter.

由於客戶加快了庫存管理，正如 Mark 剛剛指出的，我們 28 納米的需求在第四季度有所減少。

As a result, 28-nanometer utilization rate came down from above 90% in third quarter to a level below 80% in the fourth quarter.

結果，28納米的利用率從第三季度的90%以上下降到第四季度的80%以下。

However, the outlook for 28 nanometer remains very promising, thanks to our newly developed 28 HPC and 28 HPC Plus technologies.

然而，由於我們新開發的 28 HPC 和 28 HPC Plus 技術，28 納米的前景仍然非常樂觀。

These two new technologies not only suit the mid to low-end smartphone requirement, but also highly useful for other applications such as WiFi, digital TV, set-top box and image signal processor, etc.

這兩項新技術不僅適合中低端智能手機的需求，對於WiFi、數字電視、機頂盒和圖像信號處理器等其他應用也非常有用。

Overall, we expect we will ship a similar amount of 28-nanometer wafers this year as we did last year.

總體而言，我們預計今年我們將出貨與去年相似數量的 28 納米晶圓。

And we expect to ship more 28-nanometer wafers next year.

我們預計明年將出貨更多 28 納米晶圓。

We have increased our market segment share in 28 nanometer this year.

今年我們增加了 28 納米的市場份額。

We believe our technology and cost advantage will enable us to compete well.

我們相信我們的技術和成本優勢將使我們能夠很好地競爭。

Going forward, we expect to continue to protect our market segment share and gain a good profit.

展望未來，我們希望繼續保護我們的細分市場份額並獲得可觀的利潤。

Next on 20 nanometer.

接下來是 20 納米。

Because of generally weaker demand, as Mark described, and several customers have accelerated their product migration to 16 FinFET Plus, the demand for 20 nanometer this year falls somewhat short of our estimate made at the beginning of this year.

正如 Mark 所描述的，由於需求普遍疲軟，並且一些客戶加快了向 16 FinFET Plus 的產品遷移，因此今年對 20 納米的需求與我們今年年初的估計相比有所下降。

That said, we continue to stand by our earlier predictions that revenue from 20 nanometer this year will be at least double the level we had last year.

也就是說，我們繼續堅持我們之前的預測，即今年 20 納米的收入將至少是去年的兩倍。

Given the demand outlook change and the high ratio of common tools, we will continue to convert 20-nanometer capacity into 16 nanometer.

鑑於需求前景的變化和通用工具的高比例，我們將繼續將 20 納米容量轉換為 16 納米。

Now let me update you on the 16 nanometer.

現在讓我向您介紹 16 納米的最新情況。

We began high-volume production of 16 nanometer in third quarter as planned and saw revenue contribution from 16 nanometer become better than we expected earlier.

我們在第三季度按計劃開始了 16 納米的大批量生產，並且看到 16 納米的收入貢獻比我們之前預期的要好。

16-nanometer yield improvement is progressing very well, setting a new record internally for ramping up a new technology node.

16 納米的良率提升進展順利，在內部創造了新的記錄，以提升新的技術節點。

In addition to 16 FinFET Plus, we are developing 16 FinFET C for the low -- application; I'm sorry.

除了 16 FinFET Plus，我們正在開發 16 FinFET C 用於低應用；對不起。

Today we have already completed the first phase of 16 FFC and obtained good result.

今天我們已經完成了16個FFC的第一階段，並取得了不錯的成績。

Between 16FF Plus and 16 FFC, we will have around 100 product tapeouts from about 40 customers before the end of 2016, with very comprehensive portfolio including mobile, networking, CPU, FPGA, consumer and the GPUs.

在 16FF Plus 和 16 FFC 之間，我們將在 2016 年底之前從大約 40 個客戶那裡獲得大約 100 個產品流片，具有非常全面的產品組合，包括移動、網絡、CPU、FPGA、消費者和 GPU。

We believe our 16-nanometer portfolio, including 16 FF Plus and 16FFC are very competitive.

我們相信我們的 16 納米產品組合，包括 16 FF Plus 和 16FFC 非常具有競爭力。

We anticipate continued ramp up into 2016 as multiple customers in both mobile and consumer applications will drive the production in parallel.

我們預計到 2016 年將繼續增長，因為移動和消費應用中的多個客戶將同時推動生產。

Similar to 28 nanometer, we believe 16 FinFET will become a long node supporting multiple, high-volume market applications.

與 28 納米類似，我們相信 16 FinFET 將成為支持多種大批量市場應用的長節點。

TSMC's technology advantage should allow us to capture a large majority of this demand.

台積電的技術優勢應該可以讓我們抓住這一需求的絕大部分。

Now let me update InFO.

現在讓我更新 InFO。

We have completed the construction of the new facility in Longtan and are ready for InFO's volume production.

我們已經完成了龍潭新工廠的建設，並為InFO的量產做好了準備。

The manufacturing equipment move-in is on schedule and also we target volume ramp-up at second quarter next year.

製造設備的搬入正按計劃進行，我們的目標是明年第二季度增加產量。

Compared to existing package scheme, TSMC's InFO can bring greater-than-20% reduction in overall package thickness, 20% speed gain in performance and 10% better in thermal performance for power dissipation.

與現有的封裝方案相比，台積電的 InFO 可以帶來超過 20% 的整體封裝厚度減少、20% 的性能速度提升和 10% 的功耗熱性能提升。

So we are -- now InFO technology is capable and well positioned to enable next-generation mobile applications.

所以我們——現在 InFO 技術有能力並且很好地定位於支持下一代移動應用程序。

So right now we continue to work with major customers on completion of their product qualification.

因此，現在我們繼續與主要客戶合作，完成他們的產品認證。

Meanwhile we are developing the next-generation InFO process, as Mark just said, for the future application.

與此同時，正如 Mark 剛才所說，我們正在開發下一代 InFO 流程，用於未來的應用。

Our expectation of InFO contributing more than $100m quarterly revenue by 4Q 2016 remain unchanged.

我們對 InFO 到 2016 年第四季度貢獻超過 1 億美元季度收入的預期保持不變。

Now let me update on specialty and 8-inch fab.

現在讓我更新一下專業和 8 英寸晶圓廠。

In order to meet our customers' requirement and the more-than-Moore demand, we have developed specialty technology based on our logic processes.

為了滿足客戶的需求和超越摩爾的需求，我們開發了基於我們的邏輯流程的專業技術。

We have been doing this for more than 15 years by now.

到目前為止，我們已經這樣做了超過 15 年。

Applications such as MEMS, power management, CMOS image sensor, high-resolution display driver and high-precision analog have been the main drivers for the specialty technologies.

MEMS、電源管理、CMOS 圖像傳感器、高分辨率顯示驅動器和高精度模擬等應用一直是這些專業技術的主要驅動力。

After these years' effort, demand for these specialty technologies has grown substantially and account for more than 70% of all the 8-inch fabs business.

經過這些年的努力，對這些專業技術的需求大幅增長，佔所有 8 英寸晶圓廠業務的 70% 以上。

Some of the specialty applications have also moved to 12-inch fab of course.

當然，一些專業應用也轉移到了 12 英寸晶圓廠。

We expect this trend will continue and we are preparing sufficient capacity, both in 8-inch and 12-inch fabs to address the need for specialty technologies.

我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去，我們正在準備充足的產能，包括 8 英寸和 12 英寸晶圓廠，以滿足對專業技術的需求。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Now I'll turn the podium to Lora.

現在，我將把領獎台交給勞拉。

I have a few comments, so let me start with 2015 CapEx.

我有幾點意見，讓我從 2015 年資本支出開始。

Six months ago we gave our 2015 CapEx guidance in the range between $10.5b to $11b.

六個月前，我們給出了 2015 年資本支出指導，範圍在 $10.5b 到 $11b 之間。

Due to a combination of factors, including efficiency gains, capital investment program changes, capital deployment schedule changes and foreign exchange rate changes, we now expect our 2015 capital budget to be about $8b.

由於綜合因素，包括效率提升、資本投資計劃變化、資本部署時間表變化和外匯匯率變化，我們現在預計 2015 年的資本預算約為 8b 美元。

Of those changes, about 33% or one-third of the reduction of CapEx is due to operating efficiency gains that let us to spend less money but still have the same output.

在這些變化中，大約 33% 或三分之一的資本支出減少是由於運營效率的提高，這讓我們可以花更少的錢，但仍然有相同的產出。

Another one, about 30% of the reduction is due to changes in the investment projects, including the conversion between 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer.

另一個，大約30%的減少是由於投資項目的變化，包括20納米和16納米之間的轉換。

Another one, about 20% of the reduction is due to changes in capacity schedules.

另一個，大約 20% 的減少是由於產能計劃的變化。

Lastly, the remainder, about 17% of the total reduction is due to the strengthening of US dollar against euro, Japanese yen and NT dollars.

最後，其餘約 17% 的減少是由於美元兌歐元、日元和新台幣的走強。

We expect our 2016 capital budget will be higher than this year.

我們預計我們 2016 年的資本預算將高於今年。

Next one is regarding our structural profitability.

下一個是關於我們的結構盈利能力。

In the last few years we have been able to maintain or improve our structural profitability, despite making heavy capital investment.

在過去的幾年裡，儘管進行了大量的資本投資，我們仍然能夠保持或提高我們的結構盈利能力。

This is mainly due to three reasons.

這主要是由於三個原因。

Number one, operation innovations leading to productivity efficiency and better asset effectiveness.

第一，運營創新帶來生產力效率和更好的資產效率。

Number two, very careful planning in the build-out of capacity.

第二，非常仔細地規劃產能建設。

Number three, fast yield-learning when ramping new nodes.

第三，增加新節點時的快速良率學習。

All these three factors allow TSMC to enjoy a large cost advantage which leads to a better structural profitability.

所有這三個因素使台積電享有較大的成本優勢，從而帶來更好的結構性盈利能力。

TSMC's cost reduction efforts are as intense as our R&D efforts.

台積電降低成本的努力與我們的研發努力一樣激烈。

As a result of our cost reduction, we have been able to maintain our structural profitability in spite of price pressure.

由於我們降低了成本，儘管面臨價格壓力，我們仍然能夠保持結構性盈利能力。

And we expect to continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

我們希望在可預見的未來繼續這樣做。

I will talk about our solar operations.

我將談談我們的太陽能業務。

There have been a lot of changes in the world solar industry since we started our solar operations six years ago.

自六年前我們開始太陽能業務以來，世界太陽能行業發生了很多變化。

Capacity over-build in the solar module industry coupled with the substantial price decline has made TSMC's Solar's future highly doubtful.

太陽能組件行業產能過剩，加上價格大幅下跌，讓台積電太陽能的未來備受質疑。

Despite hard work at TSMC Solar throughout this six-year period, we have decided to terminate its operations at the end of August this year.

儘管台積電太陽能在這六年期間努力工作，但我們決定在今年 8 月底終止其運營。

Owing to this change, we have evaluated financial impact across all accounts.

由於這一變化，我們評估了所有賬戶的財務影響。

The total impact is about NTD2.75b which reduced our third-quarter operating margin rate by about 1.3 percentage point and reduced our third-quarter EPS by about NTD0.08.

總影響約為 NTD2.75b，這使我們的第三季度營業利潤率降低了約 1.3 個百分點，並使我們的第三季度每股收益減少了約 NTD0.08。

TSMC will continue to honor all product warranties that have been offered to existing customers.

台積電將繼續履行已提供給現有客戶的所有產品保修。

And we also extended employment offers to all employees working at TSMC Solar Taiwan at the time of the closing.

在交易結束時，我們還向在台積電台灣工作的所有員工提供了就業機會。

My last comment is regarding China investment.

我最後的評論是關於中國投資的。

In the last several months we have been actively evaluating the potential investment of a 12-inch fab in China.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在積極評估在中國投資 12 英寸晶圓廠的潛力。

The considerations include the positive development of semiconductor market in China and the large pool of engineering talents.

考慮因素包括中國半導體市場的積極發展和龐大的工程人才庫。

On the other hand, the manufacturing cost will be higher in China than in Taiwan due to lack of economy of scale and many other reasons.

另一方面，由於缺乏規模經濟等諸多原因，中國大陸的製造成本將高於台灣。

So, as of now, we are still evaluating the potential investments.

因此，截至目前，我們仍在評估潛在投資。

This ends my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

(Conference instructions).

（會議說明）。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the floor and it will be from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

我們的第一個問題來自現場，它將來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First question is, regarding your 16-nanometer FFC, would that enter mass production in the second half next year or 2017?

第一個問題是，你們的16納米FFC，是明年下半年還是2017年進入量產？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That will be, to repeat your question, you said that would be in second half of next year and enter into --

那將是，重複你的問題，你說將在明年下半年進入 -

Or 2017.

或 2017 年。

Or 2017.

或 2017 年。

Our initial schedule actually said in 2017, but we might pull in because right now we have two versions of 16 FFC.

我們最初的時間表實際上是在 2017 年說的，但我們可能會加入，因為現在我們有兩個版本的 16 FFC。

One is shrink and the other one is a non-shrink.

一種是收縮的，另一種是非收縮的。

Second question is, regarding your InFO, will customer use 2D or 3D in the future or is this too detailed.

第二個問題是，關於您的 InFO，客戶將來會使用 2D 還是 3D 或者這太詳細了。

Sorry.

對不起。

Right now it's 2D.

現在是二維的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

But in the future of course we are going to the 3D dimension.

但在未來，我們當然會進入 3D 維度。

Do you think the 3D yield rate will be similar to 2D yield rate?

您認為 3D 良品率會與 2D 良品率相似嗎？

We are working on it.

我們正在做這件事。

All right.

好的。

Next it will be coming from the floor again.

接下來它將再次從地板上傳來。

That will be from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

那將來自瑞士信貸，蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question on 16 nanometer.

我關於 16 納米的第一個問題。

Some of the third party benchmarks are showing good performance, better battery life than your competitor.

一些第三方基準測試顯示出比您的競爭對手更好的性能和更長的電池壽命。

I'm curious if this could trigger some incremental strength for your 16; how you see the ramp up now on 16 relative to 20 where it ramped to 20% of revenue pretty quickly.

我很好奇這是否會為您的 16 歲帶來一些增量力量；你如何看待現在 16 的增長，而 20 的增長很快就達到了收入的 20%。

I think Randy's question is whether or not the reported differences in the chip will lead us to have more demand.

我認為 Randy 的問題是，所報導的芯片差異是否會導致我們有更多的需求。

We are very confident on our technology, of course.

當然，我們對我們的技術非常有信心。

And if you say what they reported in the newspaper, I would say that we -- our customer already made an announcement that there is very minimal difference between TSMC and our competitors in the normal usage condition.

如果你說他們在報紙上報導的內容，我會說我們 - 我們的客戶已經宣布，台積電與我們的競爭對手在正常使用條件下的差異非常小。

And we respect their analysis.

我們尊重他們的分析。

Okay.

好的。

If I could ask a follow up just on 16, and on the second question.

如果我可以在 16 日和第二個問題上進行跟進。

How are you seeing now then the ramp of 16 or broadening out to additional customers.

您現在如何看待 16 的增長或擴大到更多客戶。

Should we expect contribution and diversification of the customer base to grow quite a lot in the next couple of quarters, or do we need to wait for 16 FFC for that diversification?

我們是否應該期望在接下來的幾個季度中，客戶群的貢獻和多樣化會大幅增長，還是我們需要等待 16 個 FFC 才能實現多樣化？

We expect the ramp up, and probably quicker than 20 SoC.

我們預計會出現增長，並且可能會比 20 SoC 更快。

And we developed FFC; certainly we hope the 16 nanometer will become a major node.

我們開發了FFC；當然我們希望16納米能成為一個主要節點。

And so we expect that more business, of course.

因此，我們當然希望有更多的業務。

My second question, just looking ahead, because you talk about normal inventory by the end of the year, if you could talk, the last four or five years you've actually held flat, sequentially Q4 to Q1.

我的第二個問題，只是展望未來，因為您談論到年底的正常庫存，如果您可以談論，過去四五年您實際上持平，從第四季度到第一季度。

If we should think normal inventory, do we have restocking again in first quarter, or we could have similar -- the new, post-crisis seasonality where things are stable.

如果我們應該考慮正常庫存，我們是否會在第一季度再次補充庫存，或者我們可能會有類似的情況——新的、危機後的季節性情況穩定。

I guess if you can give a view how we look for demand and inventory into first quarter.

我想您是否可以了解我們如何尋找第一季度的需求和庫存。

Well, for the inventory in the fourth quarter our estimate is close to seasonal normal.

好吧，對於第四季度的庫存，我們的估計接近季節性正常水平。

But, as you know, the inventory going into first quarter really depends on the burn rate in the first quarter.

但是，如您所知，進入第一季度的庫存實際上取決於第一季度的消耗率。

That estimate still is a three-month backward numbers.

這個估計仍然是一個落後三個月的數字。

So that's why I mentioned that some of the uncertainty at the end still exist.

所以這就是為什麼我提到最後的一些不確定性仍然存在。

But we certainly hope that Q1 next year will come to a normal quarter.

但我們當然希望明年的第一季度會是一個正常的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

The next question will be also coming from the floor.

下一個問題也將來自地板。

It will be JP Morgan's Gokul Hariharan.

它將是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

My first question is on the new opportunities that you mentioned on the computing side.

我的第一個問題是關於您在計算方面提到的新機會。

Could you talk a little bit about what are the developments that you're seeing?

你能談談你所看到的發展嗎？

Are we going to see opportunities on the computing side primarily on the data center side coming through?

我們是否會在計算方面看到主要在數據中心方面出現的機會？

And also maybe a quick stab at what you think the opportunity could be in the next, say, couple of years on the computing side.

也可能是你認為未來幾年的機會，比如計算方面的機會。

And I have a second question to follow up.

我還有第二個問題要跟進。

Let me repeat your question so that I make sure I answer your -- the -- you mentioned about -- asked me to comment more on the computing side, whether the computing side is more on the data center or other areas.

讓我重複你的問題，以便我確保我回答你的 - 你提到的 - 要求我在計算方面發表更多評論，無論計算方面更多地是在數據中心還是其他領域。

Or on the client PCs.

或在客戶端 PC 上。

The client --

客戶端 -

The client computing side itself.

客戶端計算端本身。

Yes, I think TSMC has been supplying the processors, distributed processors in bigger shares.

是的，我認為台積電一直在提供更大份額的處理器、分佈式處理器。

And more recently we see the processors' growth increasing.

最近，我們看到處理器的增長正在增加。

And therefore we think the computing market, we meant not just data center, but also the distributed processors, namely application processor.

因此我們認為計算市場，我們指的不僅僅是數據中心，還包括分佈式處理器，即應用處理器。

If you look at the application processor, unit growth is much faster than smartphone growth, microprocessors, Image processors, when you diagnose, absorb the images, you need to process outside.

如果你看應用處理器，單位增長比智能手機增長快得多，微處理器、圖像處理器，當你診斷、吸收圖像時，你需要在外面處理。

And there is still quite short about the capability of a automated car, for example.

例如，自動駕駛汽車的能力仍然很短。

And network processor is also important.

而網絡處理器也很重要。

And of course we include microprocessors and CPU definitely is one area.

當然，我們包括微處理器，CPU 絕對是一個領域。

By CPU I mean the Chrome Book, that type of distributed processors.

CPU 我指的是 Chrome Book，這種分佈式處理器。

That area we think -- we see growth and we believe, as the data continue increasing, the local processing capability has to increase tremendously.

我們認為的那個領域——我們看到了增長，我們相信，隨著數據的不斷增加，本地處理能力必須大大提高。

Yes.

是的。

And when you go about this market, do you see this market probably exceeding what the current mobile application processor or mobile processor market is or any kind of estimates that you can talk about within a bit more longer-term horizon?

當你談到這個市場時，你是否認為這個市場可能超過了當前的移動應用處理器或移動處理器市場，或者你可以在更長期的範圍內談論的任何類型的估計？

Well, it is hard to estimate because the usage model, the service, those big data service, analytics services are still yet to prevail to the -- to our lives.

嗯，這很難估計，因為使用模式、服務、那些大數據服務、分析服務還沒有流行到我們的生活中。

So at this point it's not as big.

所以在這一點上它沒有那麼大。

And I think it will take off before the smartphones' growth stop.

而且我認為它會在智能手機停止增長之前起飛。

Okay.

好的。

Just my second question is on the CapEx intensity.

我的第二個問題是關於資本支出強度。

I think previously Lora had mentioned that we'd come down to a 35% level in capital intensity.

我認為之前 Lora 曾提到我們將資本密集度降至 35% 的水平。

This year we are down to around 30%.

今年我們下降到30%左右。

Should we think about the $8b CapEx this year as a one-off and then we go back to the normalized $9.5b, $10b levels or even higher that we saw in the last few years, or -- just some color, initial color in terms of what kind of CapEx jump are you expecting next year as you support some of these newer opportunities as well.

我們是否應該將今年 8b 美元的資本支出視為一次性的，然後我們回到過去幾年看到的正常化的 9.5b 美元、10b 美元甚至更高的水平，或者 - 只是一些顏色，初始顏色在您支持其中一些新機會的同時，您預計明年的資本支出會出現什麼樣的增長。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I just mentioned this year's $8b is kind of low.

我剛剛提到今年的 $8b 有點低。

And next year expect to be higher than $8b, although it's too premature to give a precise number.

明年預計將高於 $8b，儘管現在給出準確的數字還為時過早。

Back to my earlier comment, the future CapEx intensity will be at a mid-30% level, the statement still holds.

回到我之前的評論，未來的資本支出強度將處於 30% 的中間水平，該聲明仍然成立。

I think it will be within 30% to 35% range.

我認為它會在 30% 到 35% 的範圍內。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from the floor.

下一個問題將來自地板。

It will be Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

它將是高盛、唐納德·盧。

Hi.

你好。

(Spoken in foreign language).

（用外語講）。

Sorry, my first question is about the CapEx.

抱歉，我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。

So TSMC cut CapEx quite substantially in three months.

因此，台積電在三個月內大幅削減了資本支出。

Last time we had the guidance back in, I think, July . And I think there are three reasons.

上次我們有指導意見時，我想是在 7 月。我認為有三個原因。

I think efficiency gain and conversion, those things doesn't seems like it's something you just find out in the last three months.

我認為效率提升和轉換，這些事情似乎不是你在過去三個月裡才發現的。

Is there anything new that you realized that make you to change CapEx so much or is that -- and also I remember in the past you always talk about the CapEx today is for production a year later.

您是否意識到有什麼新事物使您對資本支出進行瞭如此大的改變，或者是-而且我記得過去您總是談論今天的資本支出是一年後的生產。

Do you become very cautious about something next year?

你對明年的事情變得非常謹慎嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

CapEx management is a continual effort.

資本支出管理是一項持續的努力。

As you say it just come out in one month or two months.

正如你所說，它只是在一兩個月內出來。

So we have seen a trend.

所以我們看到了一個趨勢。

In the last quarter I mentioned about the CapEx we still hold our original number but there may be some changes.

在上個季度我提到了資本支出，我們仍然保持原來的數字，但可能會有一些變化。

So things evolved and we continued effort to drive the CapEx efficiency.

所以事情發生了變化，我們繼續努力提高資本支出效率。

And we have gained a lot of experience doing this in the Company.

我們在公司獲得了很多這樣做的經驗。

So if you look at the reductions, actually it's more than half is truly efforts, efficiency gain, of course with some help from foreign exchange rate.

所以如果你看減量，實際上一半以上是真正的努力，效率的提高，當然還有一些來自匯率的幫助。

And some program change, including the migration and schedule change, that's response to the market.

還有一些程序的變化，包括遷移和時間表的變化，這是對市場的反應。

Some of that will be shifted to the next year.

其中一些將轉移到明年。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is on 16-nanometer ramp.

我的第二個問題是關於 16 納米坡道。

Since you talk about it's going to be faster than 20-nanometer, would that imply it will be over 22% I believe in Q1 next year of your total revenue?

既然你說它會比 20 納米快，那是否意味著明年第一季度它會超過你總收入的 22%？

Donald, our 16 FinFET right now, most of the volume come from one single customer.

Donald，我們現在的 16 個 FinFET，大部分數量來自一個客戶。

So it will be very difficult for me to give you the exact number and say whether -- that it's a what percentage.

所以我很難給你確切的數字，並說它是否是一個百分比。

Otherwise I release too much of information.

否則我會發布太多信息。

Okay.

好的。

But it will be faster --

但它會更快——

It will be faster.

它會更快。

-- than 20-nanometer.

- 超過 20 納米。

Yes, trust what we said.

是的，相信我們所說的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Next it will be from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

接下來是花旗集團的Roland Shu。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I think that it's unusual for TSMC to have this within quarter pre-announcement and also give the guidance one month ahead of the revenue -- earning release.

我認為台積電在季度預告內發布此消息並在收入發布前一個月給出指導是不尋常的。

So just wondering what have you seen by layer and how does it compare with the view now, if it's improving or if it's stabilized or even deteriorating.

所以只是想知道你逐層看到了什麼，它與現在的視圖相比如何，它是在改善還是穩定甚至惡化。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let me take these questions.

讓我來回答這些問題。

The announcement we did on September 23 as a pre-alert, actually we have given better guidance for third quarter.

我們在 9 月 23 日發布的公告作為預警，實際上我們為第三季度提供了更好的指導。

So it's not really regarding the third quarter.

因此，這實際上與第三季度無關。

But being a transparent company, we like to be transparent, we feel the expectation for the rest of the year, analyst expectation for the rest of the year may be higher than our forecast.

但作為一家透明的公司，我們喜歡透明，我們覺得對今年剩餘時間的預期，分析師對今年剩餘時間的預期可能高於我們的預測。

So we feel there's a need to come out and say something.

所以我們覺得有必要站出來說點什麼。

That was the basis for the alert announcement.

這是警報公告的基礎。

Okay, so now for the 4Q revenue guidance, the lower end is higher right now than the Company guided a month ago.

好的，所以現在對於第四季度的收入指導，現在的下限高於公司一個月前的指導。

So does that mean that we are actually seeing more confidence on the demand side?

那麼這是否意味著我們實際上在需求方面看到了更多的信心？

I recall the alert we gave a higher range, a bigger range.

我記得我們給出的警報範圍更大，範圍更大。

I was saying TWD198m to TWD204m.

我說的是TWD198m到TWD204m。

Now the range gets smaller but towards the high-end side.

現在範圍變小了，但偏向高端。

As time goes by we have a more clear picture of what we are looking at in the fourth quarter.

隨著時間的推移，我們對第四季度的情況有了更清晰的了解。

And also for the margin, margin forecast, I think in 3Q we have a margin impact by the inventory valuation adjustment and also for this 16-nanometer ramp dilution.

而且對於利潤率，利潤率預測，我認為在第三季度我們會受到庫存估值調整以及這種 16 納米斜坡稀釋的影響。

So are these going to be the key impact in 4Q or going forward?

那麼這些將成為第四季度或未來的關鍵影響嗎？

How about -- is there any margin downside impact upon this one?

怎麼樣 - 對這個有任何利潤下行影響嗎？

The inventory is related to the utilization changes, not too much about how big this utilization changes.

庫存與利用率變化有關，而不是與這種利用率變化有多大有關。

When there is an upswing there will a negative inventory adjustment.

當出現上漲時，將出現負庫存調整。

When there is a downswing there will be a positive inventory adjustment.

當出現下滑時，將有積極的庫存調整。

That has been like that for a long time.

這種情況已經很久了。

The other one is the 16 FinFET dilution.

另一種是 16 FinFET 稀釋。

Since we just started ramping, there will be some dilution.

由於我們剛剛開始加速，會有一些稀釋。

We expect the dilution will be smaller next year, about 1 percentage point to corporate average and beyond that it will be less than 1 percentage point.

我們預計明年的稀釋度會更小，約為公司平均水平的 1 個百分點，超過該值將小於 1 個百分點。

So it will be smaller.

所以會更小。

So the whole year, whole year impact will be 1 percentage point.

所以全年，全年影響將是1個百分點。

For this year, it's 2 to 3 percentage point.

今年是2到3個百分點。

Next year it will be about 1 percentage point.

明年將是1個百分點左右。

After that, it will be smaller than 1 percentage point.

之後，它將小於1個百分點。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

My second question is for the 16-nanometer InFO.

我的第二個問題是關於 16 納米 InFO。

So how many percent of the 16-nanometer wafers is adopting InFO packaging next year?

那麼明年有多少 16 納米晶圓採用 InFO 封裝呢？

It's a question is pretty hard to estimate at this time.

這是一個目前很難估計的問題。

But I would say it's quite a portion of it.

但我會說這是相當一部分。

Okay, so by -- this definition, so how are you going to build your InFO capacity accordingly?

好的，那麼根據這個定義，你將如何相應地建立你的信息能力？

It's according to customers demand of course.

當然是根據客戶的需求。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I understand.

我明白。

And I think I have one last question, even for the 16-nanometer.

我想我還有最後一個問題，即使是 16 納米。

Since the 16-nanometer is going to be a long node, same as 28-nanometer, so what is the ultimate capacity you are going to build for 16-nanometer?

由於 16 納米將是一個長節點，與 28 納米相同，那麼您將為 16 納米構建的最終容量是多少？

It will be according to customers' demand again.

將再次根據客戶的需求。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Next will be -- questions will be coming from the floor.

接下來將是——問題將來自地板。

It will be UBS, Eric Chen.

它將是瑞銀，埃里克陳。

Okay.

好的。

My first question, very quickly, Lora, is about the CapEx cut right and how about the capacity plan for the 8-inch.

我的第一個問題，很快，Lora，是關於正確的資本支出以及 8 英寸的容量計劃。

What kind of capacity expansion we should put on our model for this year?

今年我們應該對我們的模型進行什麼樣的產能擴張？

And how about the 28-nanometer process?

那麼28納米工藝呢？

Can you give us update more elaborate?

你能給我們更詳細的更新嗎？

I will talk about the Company as a whole, capacity plan.

我將談談整個公司的產能計劃。

With the TWD8b CapEx I was talking about, we expect the year-over-year capacity for the TSMC will increase by 12% combined.

根據我所說的 TWD8b 資本支出，我們預計台積電的年產能將增加 12%。

Mostly of course, the majority is 12-inch.

當然，大多數是 12 英寸。

So no idea for the 28?

所以不知道28？

I prefer not to disclose individual technology node capacity.

我不願透露個別技術節點的能力。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

And also, Dr. Wei, I remember you talked about the 7-nano fully leverage the 10-nano, the equipment right, over the Dr. Liu, I apologize.

還有，魏大夫，我記得你說的7-nano充分利用了10-nano，設備對，超過了劉大夫，我道歉。

That's an interesting point.

這是一個有趣的觀點。

When you talk about the full leveraging, I mean the compatible around equipment, available to comparable switch from the 10-nano to 7-nano based on your internal plan.

當您談到充分利用時，我指的是周圍設備的兼容，可根據您的內部計劃從 10-nano 切換到 7-nano。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Eric, I think your question is asking whether or not there is a lot of common tools between 7 nanometer --

Eric，我想你的問題是問在 7 納米之間是否有很多常用工具——

Yes, right.

是的，沒錯。

-- and 10-nanometer the way like between 20 and 16-nanometer.

- 和 10 納米，就像 20 到 16 納米之間一樣。

Yes, we develop our 7-nanometer with the low cost target.

是的，我們以低成本為目標開發了 7 納米。

Therefore when we develop this technology we will make use of 10-nanometer equipment as much as possible.

因此，我們在開發這項技術時，會盡可能地利用 10 納米的設備。

At this point, more than 90% of the 10-nanometer tool can be directly used by 7-nanometer.

至此，90%以上的10納米工具可以直接被7納米使用。

How about from the 16 to 10?

16點到10點怎麼樣？

How many percent?

百分之幾？

Is that possible to quantify?

可以量化嗎？

From 16 to 10 it's lesser requirement because we -- 16 will be a long node and it will be fully utilized.

從 16 到 10 要求較低，因為我們 -- 16 將是一個長節點，它將被充分利用。

Instead the 10-nanometer will be a shorter node, but therefore we can -- we take particular focus on the tool migration efficiency.

相反，10 納米將是一個更短的節點，但因此我們可以——我們特別關注工具遷移效率。

Okay, that's interesting.

好吧，這很有趣。

For the 16 how you judge it as a long node.

對於16你怎麼判斷它是長節點。

If we look at the schedule probably around five quarters, the switch from the 16 to 10 and from the 10 to 7, right, in terms of the geometry migration schedule almost the same.

如果我們看一下大約五個季度的時間表，從 16 到 10 和從 10 到 7 的轉換，對，就幾何遷移時間表而言幾乎相同。

So how you define that 16 is a long node and the -- sorry, the 16 is a long node but 10 is a short node.

那麼您如何定義 16 是一個長節點，而 -- 抱歉，16 是一個長節點，但 10 是一個短節點。

How do you make such a judgment?

你如何做出這樣的判斷？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Actually we are working with the customer and then according to their product requirement and also their product roadmap.

實際上，我們正在與客戶合作，然後根據他們的產品要求以及他們的產品路線圖。

So customer and TSMC determine that which node will be best performance and best cost effective.

所以客戶和台積電決定哪個節點性能最好，成本效益最好。

So that's why we can say that the 16 FinFET right now it will be a long node as compared with 20-nanometer.

所以這就是為什麼我們可以說現在的 16 FinFET 與 20 納米相比將是一個長節點。

So more like the survey feedback from the client.

所以更像是來自客戶的調查反饋。

Yes, that's a between cooperation, TSMC and customers.

是的，這是台積電和客戶之間的合作。

Okay, last question.

好的，最後一個問題。

In terms of the InFO are you going to build on the standard in the industry for the InFO technology?

在 InFO 方面，您是否要建立在 InFO 技術的行業標準之上？

We built InFO to meet customers' demand and to fulfill their requirements.

我們構建 InFO 是為了滿足客戶的需求並滿足他們的要求。

We did not think about something else.

我們沒有考慮其他事情。

Okay.

好的。

But you will build out the standard right.

但是您將建立標準權利。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Next one will be coming from the floor.

下一個將來自地板。

It will Morgan Stanley's, Bill Lu.

這將是摩根士丹利的比爾·盧。

Hi, thank you very much.

你好，非常感謝。

So a follow-up on Eric's question on this concept of equipment reuse.

因此，對 Eric 關於設備重用概念的問題進行了跟進。

I guess first of all, does that change how you depreciate.

我想首先，這會改變你的貶值方式嗎？

And secondly, I'm not sure if you agree but it seems to me like it's not just a one node phenomena, the next several nodes you might have more and more equipment reuse than what you've seen in the past.

其次，我不確定你是否同意，但在我看來，這不僅僅是一個節點現象，接下來的幾個節點可能比你過去看到的設備重用越來越多。

I'm just wondering if you could tell me whether you agree with that and if you do, what does that mean for your business model as far as return on investment.

我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我您是否同意，如果您同意，就投資回報而言，這對您的商業模式意味著什麼。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Let me answer the first part of your questions regarding the reuse.

讓我回答你關於重用的問題的第一部分。

Are we changing any depreciation rule?

我們是否要更改任何折舊規則？

For the manufacturing tool, we use five years straight line depreciation.

對於製造工具，我們使用五年直線折舊。

But there are some called orphan idle tool.

但是有一些叫做孤兒閒置的工具。

That means these tools cannot be converted to next generation.

這意味著這些工具無法轉換為下一代。

For those tools we use three years.

對於那些我們使用三年的工具。

So we specially identify which part cannot be converted.

所以我們專門識別出哪些部分是不能轉換的。

Actually with the effort from our operation people this non-convertible part becomes smaller and smaller.

實際上，在我們操作人員的努力下，這個不可轉換的部分變得越來越小。

Mark was talking about, above 90%, actually it's very close to 95% are convertible to next generation.

馬克在說，90%以上，實際上非常接近95%可以轉換為下一代。

Sorry, just to be clear, so if you set a tool at 20 and you now convert to 16, the schedule doesn't change on the depreciation if it's converted right.

抱歉，為了清楚起見，如果您將工具設置為 20 並且現在轉換為 16，則如果轉換正確，則折舊計劃不會更改。

It doesn't change.

它沒有改變。

It doesn't change.

它沒有改變。

Can I ask you what do you mean by business model you have in mind?

我能問你你心目中的商業模式是什麼意思嗎？

I guess I just feel like the smartphone is now such a big part of the overall industry and it's driving a lot of the leading edge.

我想我只是覺得智能手機現在是整個行業的重要組成部分，它推動了很多領先優勢。

When that starts moving to the next generation, maybe the second wave and the third wave aren't going to be as big as say they used to be, in comparison.

當它開始轉移到下一代時，相比之下，第二波和第三波可能不會像以前所說的那麼大。

And so maybe you convert more of 16 to 10 than you did historically where you kept all those old nodes for a long, long time.

因此，也許您將 16 轉換為 10 比您在歷史上將所有這些舊節點保留很長時間的情況更多。

I wonder if you see that as a trend and what does that mean for your business model.

我想知道你是否認為這是一種趨勢，這對你的商業模式意味著什麼。

I think the reason we are very focused on the tool compatibility is indeed what you mentioned.

我認為我們非常關注工具兼容性的原因確實是您提到的。

The second wave and third wave, some of them may not catch up as fast as in the past.

第二波和第三波，其中一些可能趕不上過去的速度。

But we do this, it's for the maximum effectiveness to provide our technology to our customer.

但我們這樣做是為了最大限度地為客戶提供我們的技術。

Many of our customer have their products scheduled differently.

我們的許多客戶都有不同的產品安排。

So some of the customer will ride on -- will have their product launch at a different time than the other.

因此，一些客戶會繼續前進——他們的產品發佈時間將與其他客戶不同。

And we pace our technology so that they can take the maximum benefit of a particular set of tools and with the most updated technology capability.

我們調整我們的技術，以便他們能夠最大限度地利用一組特定的工具和最新的技術能力。

And so that's our value to our customers.

這就是我們對客戶的價值。

But the added burden for us is of course to manage the tool compatibility.

但是我們增加的負擔當然是管理工具的兼容性。

And I think we are -- we have the profitability target in mind to ensure that we will keep that.

而且我認為我們是 - 我們牢記盈利目標，以確保我們將保持這一目標。

I wasn't exactly clear.

我不是很清楚。

I guess what I was getting at is if you have more reuse and more conversion maybe it needs lower capital spending going forward structurally?

我想我的意思是，如果你有更多的重用和更多的轉換，也許它需要在結構上降低資本支出？

Can you repeat your question or your comments?

你能重複你的問題或你的評論嗎？

Want my help?

需要我的幫助嗎？

My interpretation of Bill's question is that because we are using a lot of those reuse because of the high common tools and therefore the need for our fresh new capital investments actually the burden is lighter and it should actually help our profitability and return.

我對比爾問題的解釋是，由於我們使用了很多重用工具，因為我們使用了很多通用工具，因此需要我們新的新資本投資，實際上負擔更輕，它實際上應該有助於我們的盈利能力和回報。

Of course.

當然。

That's why we want to make it most effective of the tools.

這就是為什麼我們想讓它成為最有效的工具。

How do you quantify that?

你如何量化它？

How do I quantify the effectiveness?

如何量化有效性？

Maybe I don't know if you can help me with the amount of reuse today versus say, last generation or how you think about CapEx intensity now versus last generation.

也許我不知道您是否可以幫助我了解今天與上一代相比的重用量，或者您如何看待現在與上一代的資本支出強度。

The CapEx intensity for each node is for the -- capital intensity is increasing for each node.

每個節點的資本支出強度是因為每個節點的資本強度正在增加。

Therefore we try every way to reduce that and make it more effective to counter that heavy loading.

因此，我們嘗試各種方法來減少這種情況，並使其更有效地應對這種沉重的負擔。

And that's the migration, tool migration is about.

這就是遷移，工具遷移就是這樣。

If you want me to quantify maybe Lora can help me.

如果你想讓我量化，也許 Lora 可以幫助我。

Let me try, Bill.

讓我試試，比爾。

Remember this question has popped up quite often.

請記住，這個問題經常出現。

Maybe two or three years ago, we were talking about the conversion rate is more than 70% and then we said it's more than 85% and now we are saying it's above 90% and 95%.

也許兩三年前，我們說轉化率超過70%，然後我們說超過85%，現在我們說超過90%和95%。

That's the effort we made doing this process.

這就是我們在這個過程中所做的努力。

There's many ways.

有很多方法。

You have to start from the design phases.

您必須從設計階段開始。

You have to look at the design.

你必須看看設計。

You make sure that tool gets utilized more than one generation, that's one thing.

您確保該工具被使用超過一代，這是一回事。

The other one is you need to know how to modify the tool so that you don't have to buy a new one.

另一個是您需要知道如何修改工具，這樣您就不必購買新工具。

That's another reason.

這是另一個原因。

So there are many, many things happening in the factory and we are giving an aggressive target on this and we measure that.

所以工廠裡發生了很多很多事情，我們在這方面給出了一個積極的目標，我們對此進行了衡量。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The second question is for Dr. Liu.

第二個問題是針對劉博士的。

You had given us some of your new demand drivers which are very helpful.

您為我們提供了一些非常有幫助的新需求驅動因素。

Can you look at how that impacts the foundry industry?

您能看看這對鑄造行業有何影響嗎？

If you look at 10-nanometers, how big do you think is the foundry market with these added demand drivers versus say, 16 or versus 28?

如果您看一下 10 納米，您認為與 16 納米或 28 納米相比，具有這些額外需求驅動因素的代工市場有多大？

I just feel like we've talked a lot about the ramp right, but the ramp is a little bit different now because it's one customer specific.

我只是覺得我們已經談論了很多關於坡道的事情，但是坡道現在有點不同，因為它是針對特定客戶的。

So can you look at the overall margin as it matures?

那麼你能看看成熟後的整體利潤率嗎？

The drivers I mentioned about mostly is to show the demand for the leading edge technology where the computing is hunger for either fast speed or for mobile lowest power.

我提到的主要驅動因素是顯示對前沿技術的需求，其中計算渴望快速或移動最低功耗。

And therefore you can see we benefit more on the leading edge technology compared to other foundry players.

因此，您可以看到，與其他代工企業相比，我們在前沿技術中獲益更多。

And I do see the trend will continue, the leading edge proportion of profit really will increase as time goes.

而且我確實看到這種趨勢會繼續下去，隨著時間的推移，利潤的領先優勢比例確實會增加。

Do you think 10-nano will be a bigger node than 28?

你認為 10-nano 會比 28-nano 更大嗎？

It's too early to tell.

現在說還為時過早。

I think in the beginning of 28-nanometer, we didn't think 28 is so big either.

我想在 28 納米開始的時候，我們也沒有想到 28 這麼大。

And I believe as we right now size our capacity only according to our customers' demand.

我相信我們現在只根據客戶的需求來調整我們的產能。

But as time goes on, we may see that differently.

但隨著時間的推移，我們可能會有不同的看法。

And we expect it should be comparable.

我們希望它應該具有可比性。

But at this point at early stage it's indeed much like 28 in the beginning.

但在早期階段，它確實很像一開始的 28 歲。

It's smaller than what 28 is today.

它比今天的 28 還小。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay, I think it's about time that we will take our next question from the call.

好的，我認為是時候從電話會議中回答下一個問題了。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接下一位來電者。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究。

Yes, thanks very much.

是的，非常感謝。

I have a question for Lora on FX.

我有一個關於 FX 的 Lora 問題。

Lora, can you just confirm do you sell -- does TSMC sell all of the wafers in US dollars?

Lora，您能否確認一下您是否出售 - 台積電是否以美元出售所有晶圓？

And on the gross margin side, can you perhaps give us a sense for how cost of sales breaks down between US dollar and Taiwan, so we can understand the movements in FX on the gross margin side.

在毛利率方面，您能否讓我們了解美元和台灣之間的銷售成本如何分解，以便我們了解毛利率方面的外匯變動。

And maybe for Mark, regarding 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer, so your sales in Q3 combined is just over 20% of sales.

也許對於馬克來說，關於 16 納米和 20 納米，所以第三季度的總銷售額僅佔銷售額的 20% 以上。

How do you see these combined nodes as a percent of sales in 2016 and how might it split between 20 and 16-nanometer?

您如何看待這些組合節點佔 2016 年銷售額的百分比，以及它如何在 20 和 16 納米之間分配？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let me answer the first part of the question regarding the foreign exchange rate.

讓我回答關於外匯匯率的問題的第一部分。

Yes, indeed our revenue more than 99% denominated in US dollars.

是的，確實我們的收入超過 99% 以美元計價。

In terms of purchasing, not so much on cost of sales, in terms of purchasing I think we have about 50% in US dollars and 20% in euro, 20% in TWD and the rest in Japanese yen.

就採購而言，不是銷售成本，就採購而言，我認為我們大約有 50% 為美元，20% 為歐元，20% 為新台幣，其餘為日元。

So that's the effect of revenue minus the cost impact.

這就是收入的影響減去成本的影響。

As you recall, we have said earlier, 1% FX impact will change our gross margin rate by 0.4 percentage point.

您還記得，我們之前說過，1% 的外匯影響將使我們的毛利率改變 0.4 個百分點。

This rule of thumb still holds today.

這個經驗法則今天仍然有效。

The second part of Brett's question is combined 16 and 20-nanometer proportion to revenue next year.

Brett 問題的第二部分是 16 納米和 20 納米與明年收入的比例。

That will be greater than this year I can say, but I cannot have a very accurate number right now to share with you.

這將比我可以說的今年要多，但我現在無法與你分享一個非常準確的數字。

So Brett, you have to wait a little bit longer.

所以布雷特，你必須再等一會兒。

Maybe if I can follow up about 2016.

也許如果我能跟進 2016 年的情況。

I think you talked in the prepared remarks about growing sales next year double digit.

我想你在準備好的評論中談到了明年銷售額將達到兩位數。

And I know you mentioned FX would be a big driver in achieving double-digit growth, revenue growth next year.

我知道你提到外匯將是實現兩位數增長的重要驅動力，明年的收入增長。

But if I look at the market on a US dollar basis, what are the demand drivers you see in 2016 because it's clear the Android smartphone market is having a lot of price pressure and next year the iPhone will have much tougher compares.

但如果我以美元為基礎看市場，2016 年的需求驅動因素是什麼，因為很明顯，Android 智能手機市場面臨著很大的價格壓力，而明年 iPhone 的價格將會更加艱難。

So what are you most optimistic about in demand and is there a risk leading edge demand may disappoint next year?

那麼，您對需求最樂觀的是什麼，明年前沿需求是否有可能令人失望？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So Brett's question is about next year's growth driver, given that smartphones is experiencing very heavy pricing pressure.

所以布雷特的問題是關於明年的增長動力，因為智能手機正承受著巨大的定價壓力。

And it has actually been a pretty significant growth driver for TSMC in the last few years.

在過去的幾年裡，它實際上是台積電的一個非常重要的增長動力。

So what would be the demand driver for TSMC next year?

那麼明年台積電的需求驅動力是什麼？

Well, it's still going to be leading edge technology and we see mostly it will still be high-end smartphones.

好吧，它仍將是領先的技術，我們看到它主要仍將是高端智能手機。

Brett, maybe I can add a little bit, one element to that.

布雷特，也許我可以添加一點，一個元素。

Not only it, it is the smartphones but also TSMC increasing our penetration in the smartphones.

不僅是智能手機，台積電也在增加我們在智能手機的滲透率。

All right.

好的。

Next question will still be coming from the line.

下一個問題仍將來自該線路。

Operator, could you please go to the next person on the line?

接線員，請您去接電話的下一個人好嗎？

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The first question has to do with the first quarter.

第一個問題與第一季度有關。

It seems unusual that your customers' forecasts are still uncertain especially after several quarters of working down inventories.

您的客戶的預測仍然不確定，尤其是在減少了幾個季度的庫存之後，這似乎是不尋常的。

Is it right to assume that this cycle, inventory correction cycle is indeed different than the previous cycles, especially when we look at your cycle time averaging two months and keep in mind that Chinese New Year in February coming and your customers even after several quarters of inventory digestion are still not willing to refresh inventories?

假設這個週期是否正確，庫存修正週期確實與之前的周期不同，尤其是當我們查看您平均兩個月的周期時間時，請記住，二月份的農曆新年即將到來，您的客戶即使在幾個季度之後庫存消化還不願意刷新庫存？

I want to get more insight from you on this factor and I have a follow up.

我想從你那裡得到更多關於這個因素的見解，我有一個跟進。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

So Mehdi let me repeat your question.

所以 Mehdi 讓我重複你的問題。

Basically you're a little bit surprised by the length of time that our customers is going through the inventory digestion.

基本上，您對我們的客戶進行庫存消化的時間長度感到有些驚訝。

As you said that it has already been going on for several quarters.

正如你所說，它已經持續了幾個季度。

And then given the cycle time it is about average two months, why do -- why does TSMC still have certain uncertainty about the first quarter next year?

然後考慮到平均兩個月的周期時間，為什麼——為什麼台積電對明年第一季度仍有一定的不確定性？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer about the inventory in a -- for the whole year.

讓我回答一下全年的庫存情況。

For TSMC as you recall our first year -- first quarter is a pretty good quarter.

對於台積電來說，您還記得我們的第一年——第一季度是一個相當不錯的季度。

It's flat typically in Q4.

它通常在第四季度持平。

Q1 is a weaker quarter.

第一季度是一個較弱的季度。

Then we find out that actually the first quarter the inventory is -- actually is higher than the -- than seasonal normal by several days.

然後我們發現實際上第一季度的庫存實際上比季節性正常高出幾天。

And then we were thinking of how this inventory will work down.

然後我們在考慮如何減少庫存。

But unfortunately the demand in China turned sour during the first and going into second quarter, coming down very fast.

但不幸的是，中國的需求在第一季度開始惡化，進入第二季度，下降速度非常快。

That surprises us.

這讓我們感到驚訝。

Therefore -- our customers too.

因此——我們的客戶也是如此。

Therefore, the inventory really didn't work down that well.

因此，庫存確實沒有那麼好。

As a matter of fact, it actually increases.

事實上，它實際上增加了。

So that puts everybody -- uncertain on the inventory.

所以這讓每個人都不確定庫存。

And we look at the Q3, I think Q3 traditionally is a strong quarter and the people still didn't really cut down their inventory that boldly.

我們看看第三季度，我認為第三季度傳統上是一個強勁的季度，人們仍然沒有真正大膽地削減庫存。

And therefore we see at the end of Q3 it still didn't come down too much.

因此，我們在第三季度末看到它仍然沒有下降太多。

And however, from the current global economy and perspective, people really put it the realistic view and we look at the Q4, indeed people are actively adjusting inventory just like several other years and they try to reach the inventory towards the seasonal level.

然而，從目前的全球經濟和角度來看，人們真的把它放在現實的角度來看，我們看看Q4，確實人們像其他幾年一樣積極調整庫存，他們試圖將庫存接近季節性水平。

And that's why we see the weaker, particularly weaker Q4.

這就是為什麼我們看到第四季度更弱，尤其是更弱的原因。

And that's the situation.

情況就是這樣。

So this year is very different than last year and I hope it's not going to replay next year.

所以今年與去年有很大不同，我希望明年不會重演。

So Mehdi --

所以邁赫迪——

And then as a follow up, the second question, I want to revisit the 10-nanometer.

然後作為後續的第二個問題，我想重新審視 10 納米。

In the past you have suggested that 10-nanometer contribution would start in Q4 of 2016.

過去您曾建議 10 納米的貢獻將在 2016 年第四季度開始。

Is that forecast still remaining the same?

那個預測仍然保持不變嗎？

And if the InFO would start generating $100m per quarter, is that part of the 10-nanometer or should we account the InFO as an additional line -- source of revenue?

如果 InFO 將開始每季度產生 1 億美元，那是 10 納米的一部分，還是我們應該將 InFO 視為附加線——收入來源？

All right.

好的。

Mehdi's question is will we as we said before begin to see revenue contribution from 10-nanometer starting in fourth quarter 2016.

Mehdi 的問題是，我們是否會像我們之前所說的那樣，從 2016 年第四季度開始看到 10 納米的收入貢獻。

And then whether or not the $100m quarterly revenue by 4Q 2016 from InFO included the 10-nanometer revenue.

然後，到 2016 年第四季度，來自 InFO 的 1 億美元季度收入是否包括 10 納米的收入。

I'll answer the first question.

我會回答第一個問題。

Yes, we did one time talk about we want to enable customers' production at the end of 2016.

是的，我們曾經說過我們希望在 2016 年底實現客戶的生產。

But the first customer we have that's played it in a conservative way and they didn't set the most aggressive schedule.

但是我們的第一個客戶以保守的方式玩它，他們沒有設定最激進的時間表。

And they put the production of 10-nanometer as planned as their product plan, according to their product plan.

並且根據他們的產品計劃，他們將10納米的生產按計劃作為他們的產品計劃。

And that plan has not changed and we continue to develop technology to produce the best quality 10 to fit that schedule still.

而且該計劃沒有改變，我們繼續開發技術以生產最優質的 10 以適應該時間表。

So we talk about we're going to freeze this technology this quarter and going about the qualification and prepare to the same production schedule of 10-nanometer next year.

所以我們談論我們將在本季度凍結這項技術並進行資格認證並準備明年的 10 納米生產計劃。

I'll answer the second question, the second part of this question on InFO's revenue next year.

我會回答第二個問題，這個問題的第二部分，關於明年 InFO 的收入。

In the fourth quarter, as I stated, it will be more than $100m per quarter by InFO alone, not with the silicon wafer or others.

正如我所說，在第四季度，僅 InFO 一項，每季度將超過 1 億美元，而不是矽片或其他。

Okay.

好的。

Let's now coming back to the floor.

現在讓我們回到地板上。

Next question will be coming from the floor, a follow-up from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將來自現場，瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯的後續問題。

I wanted to ask a follow-up.

我想問一個後續。

Just -- you mentioned about InFO $100m.

只是 - 你提到了 InFO 1 億美元。

Could you talk about the scope of the whole back-end business because you're also doing bumping, CoWoS, maybe the size of the back-end business?

你能談談整個後端業務的範圍，因為你也在做碰撞，CoWoS，也許是後端業務的規模？

And as InFO ramps, what do you see as potential, if you have any aspirations?

隨著信息量的增加，如果您有任何抱負，您認為什麼是潛力？

How big you think it could be 12 to 18 months from now?

你認為從現在開始的 12 到 18 個月會有多大？

InFO's revenue will be part of the whole back-end and certainly the back-end business is much bigger than this $100m per quarter.

InFO 的收入將成為整個後端的一部分，而且後端業務肯定比每季度 1 億美元大得多。

As far as how big it is that will depend on our demand from the customer for next year.

至於有多大，將取決於我們明年客戶的需求。

So I cannot give you roughly a right number right now.

所以我現在不能給你一個大致正確的數字。

The second follow-up question, we got a lot of reuse this year.

第二個後續問題，今年我們得到了很多重用。

Could you talk about for next year, the 20/16, are you through with that reuse or do you see potential to get some savings from 20/16 or from some of the prior nodes?

您能否談談明年的 20/16，您是否已經完成了重用，或者您是否認為有可能從 20/16 或之前的一些節點中獲得一些節省？

So do you think next year could be a year you get some of those reuse?

那麼你認為明年可能是你得到一些重用的一年嗎？

And then if we're looking at CapEx of TWD10b this year -- sorry, TWD8b this year, what that means for depreciation and for next year, if it's going to be a much more modest increase on depreciation?

然後，如果我們看一下今年 TWD10b 的資本支出 - 抱歉，今年是 TWD8b，這對折舊和明年意味著什麼，如果折舊幅度要小得多？

Randy, I did not catch up your first part of reuse.

蘭迪，我沒有趕上你重用的第一部分。

Reuse of what?

重用什麼？

Sorry, for the capacity.

對不起，容量。

If you convert more capacity next year, if you see more CapEx savings from converting 20 to 16 or some of your prior nodes like 28 or lagging nodes to reuse and move tools down.

如果您明年轉換更多容量，如果您看到將 20 轉換為 16 或您之前的一些節點（如 28 或滯後節點）以重用和向下移動工具可以節省更多的資本支出。

If you think next year is another year to reuse CapEx or reuse capacity to save CapEx next year.

如果您認為明年又是重用資本支出或重用產能以節省資本支出的一年。

In other words he's asking whether the conversion between 20-nanometer to 16-nanometer will continue into next year and whether there will be other type of conversions, for example converting from 28-nanometer to some other nodes also occurring next year.

換句話說，他在問20納米到16納米之間的轉換是否會持續到明年，是否會有其他類型的轉換，例如從28納米到其他一些節點的轉換也在明年發生。

We continue to convert 20-nanometers capacity into 16 FinFET to meet the customers' demand, I described in my presentation.

我們繼續將 20 納米的容量轉換為 16 個 FinFET 以滿足客戶的需求，我在演示文稿中進行了描述。

And if I can make some comments on this, actually the conversions depend on the demand on those two technologies and it is an ongoing process.

如果我可以對此發表一些評論，實際上轉換取決於對這兩種技術的需求，這是一個持續的過程。

Obviously we have started conversion this year and it will depend on next year's demand.

顯然我們今年已經開始轉換，這將取決於明年的需求。

If there's a need, we will convert, continue doing that.

如果有需要，我們將轉換，繼續這樣做。

On depreciation.

關於折舊。

Depreciation, I can talk about this year first.

折舊，我可以先說一下今年。

This year we expect with TWD8b CapEx, depreciation is going to go up by about 11% to 12%.

今年我們預計 TWD8b 資本支出的折舊率將上升約 11% 至 12%。

And next year since we have not fixed the CapEx yet, but it will not be a very high number either.

明年，因為我們還沒有固定資本支出，但它也不會是一個很高的數字。

Okay, next questions will be coming from HSBC, Steven Pelayo.

好的，接下來的問題將來自匯豐銀行，Steven Pelayo。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups here.

這裡只是幾個快速跟進。

You mentioned that 16 and 20 combined will definitely grow year on year.

您提到 16 和 20 加起來肯定會逐年增長。

I'm just curious in terms of sequential trends, it's about 21% of revenues.

我只是對連續趨勢感到好奇，它約佔收入的 21%。

Does that grow every quarter, when you look into Q4 and Q1?

當您查看第四季度和第一季度時，每個季度都會增長嗎？

It will grow year on year but I cannot comment on the quarter.

它將逐年增長，但我無法評論該季度。

Alright?

好吧？

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，夠公平的。

Three, four, five years ago, I think Chairman mentioned that the one number that really summarized it quite cleanly and easily for us was that with this move to smartphones, we were going to see a tripling of the silicon content per phone.

三、四、五年前，我認為主席提到，對我們來說真正清晰而輕鬆地總結的一個數字是，隨著向智能手機的轉移，我們將看到每部手機的矽含量增加三倍。

And lo and behold, it's really what drove TSMC on top with some share gains and really no Intel in this mobile phone world.

你瞧，這確實是台積電以一些份額增長而在這個手機世界中真正沒有英特爾的原因。

I guess as I'm thinking over the next three, four, five years, you guys are highlighting Internet traffic and even that's only 11m servers a year, not really that big.

我猜想在接下來的三、四年、五年內，你們正在突出互聯網流量，即使這只是每年 1100 萬台服務器，也不是那麼大。

Cars are only 60m, 70m cars per year.

汽車只有60m，每年7000萬輛。

So it's very difficult I think for us now to really see something that can be as significant, even with a sizeable market and the silicon content increase potential.

因此，我認為我們現在很難真正看到如此重要的東西，即使市場規模龐大且矽含量增加潛力。

So I guess when you're thinking out over the next three four years or so, what do you think are the biggest drivers?

所以我想當你考慮未來三四年左右的時間時，你認為最大的驅動因素是什麼？

What's that same driver that we saw five years ago like we saw with smartphones?

五年前我們看到的與智能手機一樣的驅動程序是什麼？

What excites you most I guess?

我猜最讓你興奮的是什麼？

And can you quantify it a little bit to a simple sentence like that?

你能把它量化成這樣一個簡單的句子嗎？

Steven, this is a tough one.

史蒂文，這是一個艱難的過程。

I mentioned all the trends of computing.

我提到了計算的所有趨勢。

Actually in IoT mostly growth will come from computing because the sensor and connectivity are more mature technologies.

實際上，物聯網的增長主要來自計算，因為傳感器和連接是更成熟的技術。

There is nothing, killer apps as the smartphone today.

沒有什麼是當今智能手機的殺手級應用。

But as you know, all the computation demand, some of the usage model come and goes.

但正如你所知，所有的計算需求，一些使用模型來來去去。

It wasn't successful.

它沒有成功。

For example, we're still yet to know whether the watch will becoming a usage -- people will get used to it or not, drone or other things, home devices.

例如，我們仍然不知道手錶是否會成為一種用途——人們是否會習慣它，無人機或其他東西，家用設備。

So I just don't have a clear naming for that gadgets.

所以我只是沒有一個明確的小工具命名。

But I think what I can say is just like five years ago, the connectivity and communication is a definitive trend.

但我認為我可以說就像五年前一樣，連接和通信是一個確定的趨勢。

Therefore, we see the smartphone will come and indeed it did.

因此，我們看到智能手機會出現，而且確實做到了。

It does pay.

它確實支付。

However, going forward how this computation come into what form of gadgets, actually I cannot clearly describe to you.

不過，接下來這個計算是怎麼變成什麼形式的gadget，其實我還不能清楚的給你描述。

But if you -- people still talk about their -- the smartphone in their pockets is too hot or doesn't take enough, long enough time.

但是如果你——人們還在談論他們——他們口袋裡的智能手機太熱了，或者沒有足夠的時間，足夠長的時間。

And let alone any virtual reality or augmented reality can be feed through your smartphone.

更不用說任何虛擬現實或增強現實都可以通過您的智能手機提供。

Your smartphone would die within one hour if you're doing that.

如果你這樣做，你的智能手機會在一小時內死機。

Your entertainment, people would like to watch 3DTV, but really the kids today are really looking at entertainment of a different form.

你的娛樂，人們喜歡看 3DTV，但實際上今天的孩子們真的在看另一種形式的娛樂。

They want to evolve into the virtual reality and that could be the future form of entertainment.

他們想發展成虛擬現實，這可能是未來的娛樂形式。

Do we call that movie theater?

我們叫那個電影院嗎？

Maybe.

也許。

But it could be different names.

但它可能是不同的名稱。

So the gadgets is still upon the innovator of the product industry to come out.

所以小玩意還是靠產品行業的創新者出來的。

But I think looking at our customers, there are tons of innovators that are thinking come out new products to becoming a next smartphone.

但我認為看看我們的客戶，有大量的創新者正在考慮推出新產品以成為下一代智能手機。

But they produce their design continuously.

但他們不斷地生產他們的設計。

Let's see how it will -- that will pan out to be a particular gadget for a particular successful innovator.

讓我們看看它將如何——它將成為一個特定成功創新者的特定小工具。

Sorry, if I can just do one more quick one.

對不起，如果我能再做一個更快的。

When will 10-nanometer debut its revenues?

10納米何時會首次亮相？

As you said, it was 16-nanometer this quarter.

正如你所說，本季度是 16 納米。

I know you have tape outs coming out in 10-nanometer mid next year.

我知道你們明年年中會有 10 納米的流片出來。

Is that -- do we wait until 2017 before it's a few percentage of revenue or do we think it actually can contribute a few percent by the end of next -- 2016?

那是 - 我們是否要等到 2017 年它才佔收入的幾個百分比，或者我們認為它實際上可以在下一個年底 - 2016 年貢獻幾個百分比？

We will start production maybe the fourth quarter next year.

我們可能會在明年第四季度開始生產。

But revenue we expect from year 2017 in the first quarter it will be --.

但我們預計 2017 年第一季度的收入將是——。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Questions will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

問題將來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Could you give some color for 10-nanometer scaling versus 16-nanometer?

你能為 10 納米和 16 納米的縮放提供一些顏色嗎？

10-nanometer scaling.

10 納米縮放。

Scaling.

縮放。

You mean compared to 16, density and so on.

您的意思是與 16 相比，密度等等。

Yes, two points.

是的，兩點。

Let me comment on that.

讓我對此發表評論。

10-nanometer scaling we designed it very aggressively.

我們非常積極地設計了 10 納米縮放。

Typical node to node scaling is -- if we talk about logic density, it's about 1.9 times scaling.

典型的節點到節點縮放是——如果我們談論邏輯密度，它大約是縮放的 1.9 倍。

I just showed you the number.

我剛剛給你看了號碼。

The 10-nanometer we designed to 2.1X scaling from 16 FinFET plus.

我們設計的 10 納米從 16 FinFET plus 擴展到 2.1 倍。

Second one is, as you mentioned, your 10-nanometer risk production should be Q1 next year or Q4.

第二個是，正如您所提到的，您的 10 納米風險生產應該是明年第一季度或第四季度。

Okay.

好的。

So after one year risk production so we should expect that you can enter mass production in 2017.

所以經過一年的風險生產，所以我們應該期待你可以在 2017 年進入量產。

Yes.

是的。

So based on your R&D programs for your customer, do you think you can meet the customer scaling requirements in this moment?

那麼基於你為客戶的研發計劃，你認為你現在能滿足客戶的擴展需求嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

The tape out is imminent.

磁帶即將推出。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay, follow up questions again coming from Citi's Roland Shu.

好的，再次跟進來自 Citi 的 Roland Shu 的問題。

Just one follow-up question for the depreciation.

只有一個關於折舊的後續問題。

Lora said that depreciation based on TWD8b CapEx spending in this year, depreciation will be above 11% to 12% and you said 2016 will not be a very high number.

Lora 說，根據今年 TWD8b CapEx 支出的折舊，折舊將在 11% 到 12% 以上，你說 2016 年不會是一個很高的數字。

You mean the depreciation or CapEx?

你是說折舊還是資本支出？

I said CapEx will be higher than TWD8b and depreciation year over year will not be a very big number compared to the changes of this year versus last year.

我說CapEx會高於TWD8b，與今年相比去年的變化相比，同比折舊不會是一個很大的數字。

Okay.

好的。

So this low -- less spending, depreciation and also the macro uncertainty this year and next year.

所以這個低 - 更少的支出，折舊以及今年和明年的宏觀不確定性。

So are you still holding your long-term financial goal for PBT to grow more than 10% for the next five years?

那麼，您是否仍然持有 PBT 在未來五年內增長超過 10% 的長期財務目標？

Does this goal still hold?

這個目標還成立嗎？

10% is a good goal.

10% 是一個很好的目標。

Yes.

是的。

But I think previously you talked about this on your long-term goal.

但我認為你之前談到了你的長期目標。

It's long term.

這是長期的。

I'm talking about five-year goal, 10%.

我說的是五年目標，10%。

So it still holds.

所以它仍然成立。

This goal still holds, but we need to work on it.

這個目標仍然成立，但我們需要努力實現它。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

So there is also a follow-up question from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

因此，摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu 也提出了一個後續問題。

Hi.

你好。

Just two very quick follow-ups.

只是兩個非常快速的後續行動。

One is, I think Dr. Wei talked about the second generation InFO that's under development, second generation InFO.

一個是，我認為魏博士談到了正在開發的第二代 InFO，第二代 InFO。

Is that still targeted for the mobile processors or is it for new applications?

這仍然是針對移動處理器還是針對新應用程序？

Probably it will be adopted by the mobile processor first and then applied to all other applications.

可能它將首先被移動處理器採用，然後應用於所有其他應用程序。

We are working with many customers right now.

我們現在正在與許多客戶合作。

So in fact I cannot really tell you which one will be the first one to use it.

所以實際上我不能真正告訴你哪個會是第一個使用它的人。

Secondly, can you give us update on EUV.

其次，您能給我們介紹一下 EUV 的最新情況嗎？

There seems to be some talks recently that you may be exploring other options besides EUV?

最近似乎有一些談話表明您可能正在探索 EUV 之外的其他選擇？

Okay, let me comment on EUV.

好的，讓我評論一下 EUV。

In the past three months, we see quite encouraging progress of EUV development and we work on our 3300 tools from ASML and to improve their source chamber and the targets and very good progress.

在過去的三個月裡，我們看到 EUV 開發取得了相當令人鼓舞的進展，我們致力於從 ASML 開發我們的 3300 工具，並改進它們的源室和目標，並且取得了非常好的進展。

Therefore we have agreed to go along -- go further to moving the 3350 tools.

因此，我們同意繼續 - 進一步移動 3350 工具。

And that tool has made also major modifications and we plan to move that in, in the January next year, so that to catch up.

該工具也進行了重大修改，我們計劃在明年 1 月將其移入，以便趕上。

Not only accelerate development, but also catch up on the 5-nanometer development program.

不僅要加快發展，還要趕上5納米發展計劃。

Follow-up questions from JPMorgan's Gokul.

摩根大通的 Gokul 的後續問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just one follow-up question.

只是一個後續問題。

Dr. Liu mentioned that the fabless, system fabless companies, the new breed of companies are becoming bigger and bigger.

劉博士提到，fabless、system fables的公司，這種新型的公司越來越大。

Could you talk a little bit about what kind of customers are these?

你能談談這些是什麼類型的客戶嗎？

Currently obviously there are a couple of them which are really big and primarily in the mobile space.

目前顯然有幾個非常大，主要是在移動領域。

Are we seeing expansion of these companies towards other areas as well, maybe datacenter and that kind of areas as well?

我們是否看到這些公司也向其他領域擴張，也許是數據中心和那種領域？

I cannot name the company's name for you, but let me share with you the thoughts.

我無法為您命名公司的名稱，但讓我與您分享一下想法。

Actually this phenomenon is not new.

其實這種現象並不新鮮。

Today of course, the smartphone you refer to mobile space, a lot of system companies does come out and create a new momentum for the demand market.

當然，今天你提到的移動領域的智能手機，確實有很多系統公司出來，為需求市場創造了新的動力。

In other areas like game for example.

在其他領域，例如游戲。

And it's produced by the system companies and they will -- we will see other areas for the virtual reality for example.

它是由系統公司生產的，他們將——例如，我們將看到虛擬現實的其他領域。

Some of that probably will be driven by the system companies.

其中一些可能將由系統公司推動。

And cars for example, the machine learning, that probably will also be driven by fabless and system company together.

以汽車為例，機器學習可能也將由無晶圓廠和系統公司共同推動。

So this is a -- we see there's a definitive trend that system development -- developers could not find the standard product on the market, therefore they evolve in the design to optimize their system hardware and software to create more innovative products.

所以這是一個——我們看到系統開發有一個明確的趨勢——開發人員在市場上找不到標準產品，因此他們在設計中進化以優化他們的系統硬件和軟件，以創造更多創新的產品。

And that we see and that's really encouraging is where the new players of innovation in the semiconductor industry emerges.

我們看到並且真正令人鼓舞的是半導體行業的新創新參與者出現的地方。

I think it's about time that we should end this quarter's conference call and thank you for coming over for today's conference.

我認為是時候結束本季度的電話會議了，感謝您前來參加今天的會議。

Please be advised the replay will be available in three hours from now, transcripts 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

請注意，回放將在 3 小時後提供，成績單將在 24 小時後提供，兩者都將通過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 提供。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。