台積電 ADR (TSM) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2015 earnings conference and conference call. This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today. Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dialed-in lines are in listen-only mode. As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

歡迎參加台積電2015年第三季財報發表會及電話會議。我是台積電企業傳播總監伊莉莎白·孫，也是今天的主持人。今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您撥入的線路將處於只聽模式。由於本次會議將受到全球投資者的關注，因此我們將僅以英語進行此活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO Ms. Lora Ho will summarize our operations in the third quarter, followed by the guidance for the fourth quarter. Afterwards, TSMC's two co-CEOs Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei and CFO Lora Ho will jointly provide our key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

今天的活動形式如下。首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長何麗麗女士將總結我們第三季的營運狀況，然後介紹第四季的業績指引。隨後，台積電兩位聯席執行長劉德華博士和陳建昌博士分別致詞。魏先生和財務長 Lora Ho 將共同傳達我們的關鍵訊息。然後我們將開放現場提問和線上提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。請同時下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainty which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our Web -- on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們網站上的新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO Ms. Lora Ho for summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士總結營運狀況並介紹本季業績指引。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to join us today. I will start with the financial summary for the third quarter and followed by the guidance of the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。大家下午好。歡迎今天加入我們。我將從第三季的財務摘要開始，然後是第四季度的指導。

In the third quarter, demand for TSMC's wafers was essentially flat with the second quarter, mainly reflecting customers' cautious inventory management. However, a stronger-than-forecasted US dollar against the NT dollar caused our third-quarter revenue to exceed the high-end of our guidance even in July.

第三季度，台積電晶圓需求與第二季度基本持平，主要反映客戶謹慎的庫存管理。然而，由於美元兌新台幣匯率強於預期，導致我們第三季的營收甚至在 7 月就超過了預期的高端。

On a sequential basis, revenue increased by 3.4% to NTD213b, and gross margin decreased 0.3 percentage points to 48.2% as the benefit from higher capacity utilization and variable exchange rates were outweighed by unfavorable inventory management and the margin dilution from 16 nanometer.

以環比計算，營收成長 3.4% 至新台幣 2,130 億，毛利率下降 0.3 個百分點至 48.2%，因為產能利用率提高和匯率變動帶來的好處被不利的庫存管理和 16 奈米的利潤率稀釋所抵消。

During this quarter we ceased TSMC's solar operations and incurred a loss of NTD2.8b. Among the total, about NTD400m was recorded in cost of goods sold and NTD2.4b in other operating expenses. The loss dragged down our operating margin by 1.3 percentage points and reduced our EPS by about NTD0.08. Operating margin in the third quarter decreased 0.6 percentage points to 36.9%. Without this one-time solar write-off, our operating margin would have been 38.2%.

本季度，我們停止了台積電的太陽能業務，並蒙受了28億新台幣的損失。其中，銷售成本約4億新台幣，其他營業費用約24億新台幣。此項虧損導致我們的營業利益率下降了1.3個百分點，每股收益減少了約0.08新台幣。第三季營業利益率下降0.6個百分點至36.9%。如果沒有這筆一次性太陽能費用的抵扣，我們的營業利潤率將達到 38.2%。

For non-operating items, ASML shares' disposal gains were NTD3.7b or NTD0.13 in EPS. For comparison, in the second quarter we recorded NTD20b disposal gains on ASML and Vanguard shares.

對於非營業項目，ASML 股票處置收益為 37 億新台幣，或每股收益 0.13 新台幣。相較之下，第二季我們記錄了 ASML 和 Vanguard 股票的 200 億新台幣處置收益。

With all these items, our third quarter EPS was NTD2.91.

綜合以上各項因素，我們第三季的每股盈餘為新台幣 2.91 元。

Now let's take a look at revenue by application. During the third quarter, communications, computer, consumer, and industrial increased 1%, 15%, 3% and 11% respectively. These numbers reflect the change in favorable foreign exchange rate already.

現在讓我們來看看按應用劃分的收入。第三季度，通訊、電腦、消費和工業分別成長1%、15%、3%和11%。這些數字已經反映了有利的外匯匯率的變化。

In terms of revenue by technology, we are pleased to report the first quarter of 16 nanometer volume shipment. 16 nanometer and 20 nanometer combined contributed 21% of our total wafer revenue in the third quarter.

就按技術劃分的收入而言，我們很高興地報告第一季 16 奈米批量出貨量。16奈米和20奈米合計占我們第三季晶圓總收入的21%。

Moving to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of NTD525b. Current liabilities decreased by NTD108b mainly as we paid out NTD117b of cash dividend in July.

從資產負債表來看，我們在第三季結束時擁有 5,250 億新台幣的現金和有價證券。流動負債減少1,080億新台幣，主要是因為我們7月派發了1170億新台幣的現金股息。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 2 days to 42 days. Days of inventory decreased by 3 days to 59 days as we now have lower days in work-in-process inventories and we shipped the 20 nanometer wafers we pre-built last quarter.

財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數減少2天至42天。庫存天數減少了 3 天至 59 天，因為我們現在在製品庫存天數較少，並且我們上個季度發運了預先製造的 20 奈米晶圓。

Lastly, I would like to make a few comments on cash, cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter we generated NTD118b cash from operations, invested NTD70b in capital expenditure and paid out NTD117b cash dividend. Additionally, we received about NTD15b from disposal of ASML shares and borrowed NTD28b in short-term loans for currency-hedging purpose. As a result, our cash balance decreased NTD13b to NTD516b at the end of the third quarter.

最後，我想就現金、現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第三季度，我們從營運中產生了 1,180 億新台幣的現金，投資了 700 億新台幣的資本支出，並派發了 1,170 億新台幣的現金股息。此外，我們還透過出售 ASML 股份獲得了約 150 億新台幣的收益，並借入了 280 億新台幣的短期貸款用於貨幣對沖。因此，我們的現金餘額在第三季末減少了130億新台幣至5,160億新台幣。

So, I just finished the summary of the third quarter financial outcome. Now let me turn to the fourth-quarter outlook. Due to the weaker-than-expected end-market demand, customers continue to manage inventory cautiously. Meanwhile, 16 nanometer will ramp strongly and contribute more significant revenue in the fourth quarter.

所以，我剛剛完成了第三季財務結果的總結。現在讓我來談談第四季的展望。由於終端市場需求弱於預期，客戶繼續謹慎管理庫存。同時，16奈米將強勁成長，並在第四季貢獻更可觀的營收。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumption of $1 to NTD32.71, we expect our fourth-quarter revenue to be between NTD201 and NTD204 billion, gross profit margin to be between 47.5% and 49.5%, and operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌 32.71 新台幣的匯率假設，我們預計第四季度營收將在 2010 億至 2040 億新台幣之間，毛利率將在 47.5% 至 49.5% 之間，營業利潤率將在 36.5% 至 38.5% 之間。

You may notice that the midpoint of gross margin guidance is slightly higher than third-quarter gross margin, despite lower revenue. This is because we expect our cost improvement and favorable inventory valuation adjustment to fully offset the impact from lower capacity utilizations.

您可能會注意到，儘管收入較低，但毛利率指引的中點略高於第三季的毛利率。這是因為我們預期成本改善和有利的庫存估值調整將完全抵銷產能利用率較低的影響。

In addition, the expiration of the remaining hedging contract on ASML shares will contribute about NTD0.01 per share in the fourth quarter. And that will be the end of the total accounting treatment.

此外，ASML股票餘下對沖合約到期，第四季將貢獻每股約0.01元。整個會計處理就到此結束了。

This concludes my remarks. Now let me turn the podium to co-CEO Mark Liu for his comments.

我的發言到此結束。現在，請允許我請聯合執行長劉德華發表評論。

Good afternoon, everyone. I would like to give you some remarks, some messages here. My message has three parts. First, I will talk about near-term demand. I will describe the background color. And I'll talk about TSMC's long-term growth drivers. Then the third part is leading-edge technology development update.

大家下午好。我想在這裡向大家發表一些評論和資訊。我的訊息分為三個部分。首先，我來談談近期需求。我將描述背景顏色。我再講一下台積電的長期成長動力。第三部分是前沿技術的發展更新。

Now first, the near-term demand. This year, due to a weaker global economy, a stronger US dollar environment and a volatile financial market, the electronic device market has been negatively impacted, resulting in a lack of growth in the overall semiconductor market. In addition, we see the unexpected slowdown of the economy in China since the Q1, resulting in a continuous sluggish smartphone demand in China. This led to our relatively flat revenue growth in the third quarter. And we think the inventory level in the fabless industry will be still above seasonal normal by about 10 days at the end of the third quarter.

首先，我們來談談近期需求。今年以來，受全球經濟走弱、美元環境走強以及金融市場動盪等影響，電子設備市場受到負面影響，導致整體半導體市場缺乏成長。此外，我們看到自第一季以來中國經濟意外放緩，導致中國智慧型手機需求持續低迷。這導致我們第三季的營收成長相對穩定。我們認為，到第三季末，無晶圓廠產業的庫存水準仍將比季節性正常水準高出約 10 天。

Looking forward, we see the active inventory reduction actions in the fabless companies continue into the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, our accelerated ramp up of 16 FinFET Plus technology, supporting high-end smartphone market, did uplift the otherwise weak wafer demand. Therefore we forecast a moderate decline, about 4% to 5% of revenue, from the previous quarter.

展望未來，我們看到無晶圓廠公司的積極去庫存行動將持續到第四季。儘管如此，我們加速推出 16 FinFET Plus 技術，支援高階智慧型手機市場，確實提升了原本疲軟的晶圓需求。因此，我們預測收入將較上一季略有下降，約為 4% 至 5%。

We estimate that the fabless industry inventory will likely settle to a seasonal level towards the end of this year, albeit some uncertainty on this still exists.

我們估計，無晶圓廠產業庫存可能會在今年年底穩定到季節性水平，儘管這方面仍存在一些不確定性。

Given the fourth-quarter guidance, TSMC should be able to deliver a double-digit growth, at about 10% to 11% year on year in 2015, thanks partially to the stronger US dollar.

根據第四季的業績指引，台積電 2015 年的營收可望實現兩位數成長，年增約 10% 至 11%，這部分得益於美元走強。

Our 2015 forecast of the growth of smartphone unit shipment is 10%, PC for the industry is minus 6%, tablet minus 14%, digital consumer electronics minus 6%. The semiconductor industry growth is about zero percent. And our fabless industry growth is minus 5%.

我們預測2015年智慧型手機出貨量成長率為10%，產業PC成長率為-6%，平板電腦成長率為-14%，數位消費性電子產品成長率為-6%。半導體產業成長率約為零。我們的無晶圓廠產業成長率為-5%。

The next part I will talk about TSMC's long-term growth driver. In the past three to four years, the growth of smartphone market has propelled TSMC's growth. Recently, we see the total unit growth of smartphone appears to be slowing. However, the silicon content in all segments of smartphone continues to increase. This silicon content increase particularly shows in the high-end smartphone. For example, the unit growth of high-end smartphone this year will be about flat, but the silicon content of the high-end smartphone will still have a mid-teen percentage growth.

下一部分我將談論台積電的長期成長動力。過去三、四年，智慧型手機市場的成長推動了台積電的成長。最近，我們看到智慧型手機的總銷量成長似乎正在放緩。然而，智慧型手機各環節的矽含量都在增加。矽含量的增加在高階智慧型手機中表現得特別明顯。例如，今年高階智慧型手機的出貨量增幅將基本持平，但高階智慧型手機的矽含量仍將維持中等幅度的百分比成長。

We see the bifurcation of high-end and mid, low-end smartphone markets continues. And the high-end smartphones, which provide richer features, higher performance and lower power consumption will continue to drive the demand of leading-edge technologies. We stand to benefit from this trend. Smartphone will continue to provide growth momentum for TSMC in the next two to three years.

我們看到高階和中低階智慧型手機市場的分化仍在繼續。而功能更豐富、性能更強大、功耗更低的高階智慧型手機將持續推動對尖端技術的需求。我們將從這一趨勢中受益。智慧型手機將在未來兩到三年內繼續為台積電提供成長動力。

TSMC holds our corporate mission of being the trusted technology and capacity supplier in the logic semiconductor industry for years to come. We work closely with many of our partners and collaborate with them to produce the best product in many market segments, each with differentiations of its own.

台積電的企業使命是在未來幾年成為邏輯半導體產業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。我們與許多合作夥伴密切合作，並與他們協作在多個細分市場中生產出最好的產品，每個細分市場都有自己的差異化。

From that, we see several drivers of future demand growth. It is very encouraging. Three areas that we will soon add to the growth of TSMC in the coming years; first computing market. In addition to the smartphones, we see faster growth of processor unit demand in many applications. With the Internet traffic near exponentially increasing, people are to extract intelligence out of the mountains of data. Extensive computation not only needs to be done in the data center, much must be done in the network as well as the distributed edge of the network. Image processor, CPU for automotive, CPU and GPU for augmented reality and virtual reality are examples.

由此，我們看到了未來需求成長的幾個驅動因素。這是非常令人鼓舞的。未來幾年我們很快就會為台積電的成長增添三個領域；第一個計算市場。除了智慧型手機之外，我們還看到許多應用領域對處理器單元的需求成長更快。隨著網路流量呈指數級增長，人們需要從海量資料中提取情報。不僅需要在資料中心進行大量運算，還必須在網路以及網路的分散式邊緣進行大量運算。影像處理器、汽車 CPU、擴增實境和虛擬實境的 CPU 和 GPU 就是例子。

Second, fabless system company. We now see a new breed of fabless system companies coming to join the plate of semiconductor product innovations. With the enhanced SoC integration and systems software and hardware integration, new usage models with brand new markets are opening up for the semiconductor industry. We have been working with these fabless system companies for several years.

第二，無晶圓廠系統公司。我們現在看到一批新型無晶圓廠系統公司正在加入半導體產品創新的行列。隨著SoC整合度和系統軟體硬體整合度的增強，半導體產業正在開拓新的使用模式和全新的市場。我們已經與這些無晶圓廠系統公司合作了好幾年。

Third, Internet of Things. As billions of things are connected to Internet with sophisticated computing and analysis, they soon will become intelligent enough to create new user experiences and to improve the efficiency in many aspects of life, work and leisure. Recently we see fast innovation taking place in areas such as cars, drones, robots, wearables and smartphone devices.

第三，物聯網。隨著數十億的事物透過複雜的運算和分析連接到互聯網，它們很快就會變得足夠智能，從而創造新的用戶體驗，並提高生活、工作和休閒等許多方面的效率。最近，我們看到汽車、無人機、機器人、穿戴式裝置和智慧型手機設備等領域正在發生快速創新。

Working with innovators around the world, we continue to see the insatiable need for performance of leading-edge technologies. We also see the need for advanced packaging technologies to increase the overall system performance. Thus, we will continue to increase the pace of our leading-edge technology development. Leading-edge technology will continue to be the major driver of TSMC's future growth.

透過與世界各地的創新者合作，我們不斷看到對尖端技術性能的無限需求。我們也看到需要先進的封裝技術來提高整體系統效能。因此，我們將繼續加快尖端技術開發的步伐。前沿技術仍將是台積電未來成長的主要動力。

The third part, I'd like to update you about our leading-edge technology development. Our 10-nanometer technology development is well on track. This technology has a logic density of 2.1 times of its previous generation, that's 16 FinFET Plus, with performance of 20% enhancement or a power consumption reduction of 40%. During this quarter, we will freeze the process and begin technology qualification for our 10-nanometer technology. Customer product tape-outs will soon begin in next spring,

第三部分，我想向大家介紹我們尖端技術的發展。我們的10奈米技術開發進展順利。此技術的邏輯密度為上一代的2.1倍，即16個FinFET Plus，效能提升20%，功耗降低40%。本季度，我們將凍結該流程並開始對我們的 10 奈米技術進行技術鑑定。客戶產品流片將於明年春季開始，

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology will fully leverage of our 10-nanometer yield learning and the progress of our 7 nanometer is well on track as well. The migration from 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer provides substantial improvement in performance, power and density. We are very happy to inform you that fully functional SRAMs on our 7 nanometer have already been demonstrated.

台積電的7奈米技術將充分利用我們10奈米的良率經驗，而且我們的7奈米進展也進展順利。從 10 奈米到 7 奈米的遷移在性能、功率和密度方面帶來了顯著的改進。我們非常高興地通知您，我們 7 奈米上功能齊全的 SRAM 已經展示。

On advanced packaging development, our InFO technology will enter high-volume production with our 16-nanometer technology next year. We are currently working on the second-generation InFO technology for several projects of system integration on 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer.

在先進封裝開發方面，我們的InFO技術將於明年結合我們的16奈米技術進入量產階段。目前我們正在研究第二代InFO技術，用於10奈米和7奈米的幾個系統整合專案。

That is my key messages. Thank you for your attention. I will turn the podium to C.C. Wei.

這就是我的關鍵訊息。感謝您的關注。我將把講台交給 C.C.韋。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I will update you the status of our fab operations on the following topics. First one, 28 nanometer. Due to customers expediting their inventory management, as Mark just pointed out, the demand for our 28 nanometer has been reduced in the fourth quarter. As a result, 28-nanometer utilization rate came down from above 90% in third quarter to a level below 80% in the fourth quarter. However, the outlook for 28 nanometer remains very promising, thanks to our newly developed 28 HPC and 28 HPC Plus technologies. These two new technologies not only suit the mid to low-end smartphone requirement, but also highly useful for other applications such as WiFi, digital TV, set-top box and image signal processor, etc.

女士們、先生們，午安。我將就以下主題向您通報我們晶圓廠的營運狀況。第一個，28奈米。由於客戶加快庫存管理，正如馬克剛才指出的，我們第四季度對 28 奈米的需求有所減少。結果，28奈米利用率從第三季的90％以上下降到第四季的80％以下。然而，由於我們新開發的 28 HPC 和 28 HPC Plus 技術，28 奈米的前景仍然非常光明。這兩項新技術不僅適用於中低階智慧型手機的需求，而且對於WiFi、數位電視、機上盒和影像訊號處理器等其他應用也非常有用。

Overall, we expect we will ship a similar amount of 28-nanometer wafers this year as we did last year. And we expect to ship more 28-nanometer wafers next year. We have increased our market segment share in 28 nanometer this year. We believe our technology and cost advantage will enable us to compete well. Going forward, we expect to continue to protect our market segment share and gain a good profit.

總體而言，我們預計今年 28 奈米晶圓的出貨量將與去年相似。我們預計明年將出貨更多28奈米晶圓。今年我們在28奈米的市佔率有所增加。我們相信我們的技術和成本優勢將使我們具有良好的競爭力。展望未來，我們期望繼續保護我們的市場份額並獲得良好的利潤。

Next on 20 nanometer. Because of generally weaker demand, as Mark described, and several customers have accelerated their product migration to 16 FinFET Plus, the demand for 20 nanometer this year falls somewhat short of our estimate made at the beginning of this year. That said, we continue to stand by our earlier predictions that revenue from 20 nanometer this year will be at least double the level we had last year.

接下來是 20 奈米。由於正如馬克所描述的，需求總體較弱，而且一些客戶加快了向 16 FinFET Plus 的產品遷移，因此今年對 20​​ 奈米的需求略低於我們今年年初的估計。儘管如此，我們仍然堅持先前的預測，今年 20 奈米的收入將至少是去年的兩倍。

Given the demand outlook change and the high ratio of common tools, we will continue to convert 20-nanometer capacity into 16 nanometer.

鑑於需求前景的變化和通用工具的高比例，我們將繼續將20奈米產能轉換為16奈米。

Now let me update you on the 16 nanometer. We began high-volume production of 16 nanometer in third quarter as planned and saw revenue contribution from 16 nanometer become better than we expected earlier. 16-nanometer yield improvement is progressing very well, setting a new record internally for ramping up a new technology node.

現在讓我向大家介紹一下 16 奈米的最新情況。我們按計劃在第三季開始大批量生產16奈米，16奈米的收入貢獻比我們之前預期的要好。16奈米良率提升進展順利，創下了內部新技術節點提升的新紀錄。

In addition to 16 FinFET Plus, we are developing 16 FinFET C for the low -- application; I'm sorry. Today we have already completed the first phase of 16 FFC and obtained good result. Between 16FF Plus and 16 FFC, we will have around 100 product tapeouts from about 40 customers before the end of 2016, with very comprehensive portfolio including mobile, networking, CPU, FPGA, consumer and the GPUs. We believe our 16-nanometer portfolio, including 16 FF Plus and 16FFC are very competitive.

除了 16 FinFET Plus，我們也正在開發用於低應用的 16 FinFET C；對不起。如今我們已經完成了第一階段的16個FFC，並且取得了良好的效果。在 16FF Plus 和 16 FFC 之間，我們將在 2016 年底之前從大約 40 個客戶那裡獲得大約 100 個產品流片，產品組合非常全面，包括行動、網路、CPU、FPGA、消費者和 GPU。我們相信我們的 16 奈米產品組合（包括 16 FF Plus 和 16FFC）非常有競爭力。

We anticipate continued ramp up into 2016 as multiple customers in both mobile and consumer applications will drive the production in parallel. Similar to 28 nanometer, we believe 16 FinFET will become a long node supporting multiple, high-volume market applications. TSMC's technology advantage should allow us to capture a large majority of this demand.

我們預計，由於行動和消費應用領域的多個客戶將同時推動生產，因此 2016 年產量將持續增加。與 28 奈米類似，我們相信 16 FinFET 將成為支援多種大批量市場應用的長節點。台積電的技術優勢應該能讓我們滿足絕大部分的需求。

Now let me update InFO. We have completed the construction of the new facility in Longtan and are ready for InFO's volume production. The manufacturing equipment move-in is on schedule and also we target volume ramp-up at second quarter next year.

現在讓我更新 InFO。我們已經完成了龍潭新工廠的建設，並已為InFO的批量生產做好了準備。生產設備的遷入工作正在按計畫進行，我們的目標是在明年第二季提高產量。

Compared to existing package scheme, TSMC's InFO can bring greater-than-20% reduction in overall package thickness, 20% speed gain in performance and 10% better in thermal performance for power dissipation.

與現有的封裝方案相比，台積電的InFO可以使整體封裝厚度減少20％以上，效能速度提高20％，功耗熱性能提高10％。

So we are -- now InFO technology is capable and well positioned to enable next-generation mobile applications. So right now we continue to work with major customers on completion of their product qualification. Meanwhile we are developing the next-generation InFO process, as Mark just said, for the future application.

所以我們現在——InFO 技術已經有能力並且能夠很好地支援下一代行動應用程式。因此，現在我們繼續與主要客戶合作，完成他們的產品認證。同時，正如馬克剛才所說，我們正在開發下一代 InFO 流程，以供未來的應用。

Our expectation of InFO contributing more than $100m quarterly revenue by 4Q 2016 remain unchanged.

我們對於 InFO 到 2016 年第四季貢獻超過 1 億美元季度營收的預期保持不變。

Now let me update on specialty and 8-inch fab. In order to meet our customers' requirement and the more-than-Moore demand, we have developed specialty technology based on our logic processes. We have been doing this for more than 15 years by now. Applications such as MEMS, power management, CMOS image sensor, high-resolution display driver and high-precision analog have been the main drivers for the specialty technologies.

現在讓我更新一下專業和 8 吋晶圓廠的情況。為了滿足客戶的要求和超越摩爾的需求，我們基於邏輯流程開發了專業技術。到目前為止，我們已經這樣做了15年多了。MEMS、電源管理、CMOS影像感測器、高解析度顯示器驅動器和高精度類比等應用一直是專業技術的主要驅動力。

After these years' effort, demand for these specialty technologies has grown substantially and account for more than 70% of all the 8-inch fabs business. Some of the specialty applications have also moved to 12-inch fab of course. We expect this trend will continue and we are preparing sufficient capacity, both in 8-inch and 12-inch fabs to address the need for specialty technologies.

經過多年的努力，這些專業技術的需求大幅成長，佔8吋晶圓廠業務的70％以上。當然，一些特殊應用也已轉移到 12 吋晶圓廠。我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去，我們正在準備足夠的產能，無論是 8 吋還是 12 吋晶圓廠，以滿足對專業技術的需求。

Thank you for your attention. Now I'll turn the podium to Lora.

感謝您的關注。現在我將講台轉向 Lora。

I have a few comments, so let me start with 2015 CapEx. Six months ago we gave our 2015 CapEx guidance in the range between $10.5b to $11b. Due to a combination of factors, including efficiency gains, capital investment program changes, capital deployment schedule changes and foreign exchange rate changes, we now expect our 2015 capital budget to be about $8b.

我有幾點評論，所以讓我從 2015 年資本支出開始。六個月前，我們給了2015年資本支出預期，介於105億美元至110億美元之間。由於效率提高、資本投資計畫變化、資本部署計畫變化和外匯匯率變化等多種因素，我們目前預計 2015 年資本預算約為 80 億美元。

Of those changes, about 33% or one-third of the reduction of CapEx is due to operating efficiency gains that let us to spend less money but still have the same output. Another one, about 30% of the reduction is due to changes in the investment projects, including the conversion between 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer. Another one, about 20% of the reduction is due to changes in capacity schedules. Lastly, the remainder, about 17% of the total reduction is due to the strengthening of US dollar against euro, Japanese yen and NT dollars.

在這些變化中，大約 33% 或三分之一的資本支出減少是由於營運效率的提高，這使我們能夠花費更少的錢，但仍然獲得相同的產出。另外，約有30%的減少是由於投資項目的變化，包括20奈米和16奈米之間的轉換。另外，約20%的減幅是由於運力計畫的變化所造成的。最後，剩餘的約17%的減幅是由於美元兌歐元、日圓和新台幣的走強。

We expect our 2016 capital budget will be higher than this year.

我們預計 2016 年的資本預算將高於今年。

Next one is regarding our structural profitability. In the last few years we have been able to maintain or improve our structural profitability, despite making heavy capital investment. This is mainly due to three reasons. Number one, operation innovations leading to productivity efficiency and better asset effectiveness. Number two, very careful planning in the build-out of capacity. Number three, fast yield-learning when ramping new nodes. All these three factors allow TSMC to enjoy a large cost advantage which leads to a better structural profitability.

下一個是關於我們的結構獲利能力。過去幾年，儘管我們投入了大量的資本，但我們仍然能夠維持或提高結構性獲利能力。這主要有三個原因。第一，營運創新帶來生產效率和資產效益的提升。第二，在產能建置方面要進行非常謹慎的規劃。第三，增加新節點時快速進行產量學習。這三個因素使得台積電擁有較大的成本優勢，進而帶來較好的結構性獲利能力。

TSMC's cost reduction efforts are as intense as our R&D efforts. As a result of our cost reduction, we have been able to maintain our structural profitability in spite of price pressure. And we expect to continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

台積電降低成本的努力與我們的研發努力一樣激烈。由於我們降低了成本，儘管面臨價格壓力，我們仍然能夠保持結構性獲利能力。我們期望在可預見的未來繼續這樣做。

I will talk about our solar operations. There have been a lot of changes in the world solar industry since we started our solar operations six years ago. Capacity over-build in the solar module industry coupled with the substantial price decline has made TSMC's Solar's future highly doubtful. Despite hard work at TSMC Solar throughout this six-year period, we have decided to terminate its operations at the end of August this year.

我將談論我們的太陽能業務。自六年前我們開始從事太陽能業務以來，世界太陽能產業發生了許多變化。太陽能電池組件產業產能過剩，加上價格大幅下滑，使得台積電太陽能的未來前景十分堪憂。儘管台積電太陽能在這六年中一直努力工作，但我們還是決定在今年八月底終止營運。

Owing to this change, we have evaluated financial impact across all accounts. The total impact is about NTD2.75b which reduced our third-quarter operating margin rate by about 1.3 percentage point and reduced our third-quarter EPS by about NTD0.08.

由於這項變化，我們評估了所有帳戶的財務影響。總影響約新台幣27.5億元，導致我們第三季的營業利潤率下降約1.3個百分點，每股收益下降約新台幣0.08元。

TSMC will continue to honor all product warranties that have been offered to existing customers. And we also extended employment offers to all employees working at TSMC Solar Taiwan at the time of the closing.

台積電將繼續履行向現有客戶提供的所有產品保固。我們也向交易完成時在台積電太陽能台灣公司工作的所有員工提供了就業機會。

My last comment is regarding China investment. In the last several months we have been actively evaluating the potential investment of a 12-inch fab in China. The considerations include the positive development of semiconductor market in China and the large pool of engineering talents. On the other hand, the manufacturing cost will be higher in China than in Taiwan due to lack of economy of scale and many other reasons. So, as of now, we are still evaluating the potential investments.

我的最後一條評論是關於中國投資的。在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在積極評估在中國投資 12 吋晶圓廠的潛在可能性。這些考慮因素包括中國半導體市場的積極發展和大量的工程人才。另一方面，由於缺乏規模經濟等許多原因，中國大陸的製造成本將高於台灣。因此，截至目前，我們仍在評估潛在的投資。

This ends my remark. Thank you.

我的發言到此結束。謝謝。

All right. This concludes our prepared statements. (Conference instructions). Now let's begin the Q&A session. Our first question comes from the floor and it will be from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

好的。我們的準備聲明到此結束。（會議指示）。現在我們開始問答環節。我們的第一個問題來自現場，由德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 提出。

Thank you. Two questions. First question is, regarding your 16-nanometer FFC, would that enter mass production in the second half next year or 2017? That's the first question. Thank you.

謝謝。兩個問題。第一個問題是，關於你們的16納米FFC，它會在明年下半年或2017年投入量產嗎？這是第一個問題。謝謝。

That will be, to repeat your question, you said that would be in second half of next year and enter into --

重複一下你的問題，你說那將在明年下半年開始——

Or 2017.

或 2017 年。

Or 2017. Our initial schedule actually said in 2017, but we might pull in because right now we have two versions of 16 FFC. One is shrink and the other one is a non-shrink.

或 2017 年。我們的初步計劃實際上是在 2017 年，但我們可能會推遲，因為現在我們有兩個版本的 16 FFC。一個是收縮，一個是非收縮。

Second question is, regarding your InFO, will customer use 2D or 3D in the future or is this too detailed. Sorry.

第二個問題是，關於您的 InFO，客戶將來會使用 2D 還是 3D，或者這是否太詳細了。對不起。

Right now it's 2D.

目前它是 2D 的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes. But in the future of course we are going to the 3D dimension.

是的。但未來我們當然會走向 3D 維度。

Do you think the 3D yield rate will be similar to 2D yield rate?

您認為 3D 良率會與 2D 良率相似嗎？

We are working on it.

我們正在努力。

All right. Next it will be coming from the floor again. That will be from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的。接下來它將再次從地板上冒出來。那是來自瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams) 的發言。

Thank you. My first question on 16 nanometer. Some of the third party benchmarks are showing good performance, better battery life than your competitor. I'm curious if this could trigger some incremental strength for your 16; how you see the ramp up now on 16 relative to 20 where it ramped to 20% of revenue pretty quickly.

謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於 16 奈米的。一些第三方基準測試顯示出良好的性能，比競爭對手具有更好的電池壽命。我很好奇這是否會為您的 16 帶來一些增量力量；您現在如何看待 16 相對於 20 的增長，其中 20 很快就增長到了收入的 20%。

I think Randy's question is whether or not the reported differences in the chip will lead us to have more demand.

我認為蘭迪的問題是晶片中報告的差異是否會導致我們有更多的需求。

We are very confident on our technology, of course. And if you say what they reported in the newspaper, I would say that we -- our customer already made an announcement that there is very minimal difference between TSMC and our competitors in the normal usage condition. And we respect their analysis.

當然，我們對我們的技術非常有信心。如果你說他們在報紙上報道的內容，我想說，我們的客戶已經宣布，在正常使用條件下，台積電和我們的競爭對手之間的差異非常小。我們尊重他們的分析。

Okay. If I could ask a follow up just on 16, and on the second question. How are you seeing now then the ramp of 16 or broadening out to additional customers. Should we expect contribution and diversification of the customer base to grow quite a lot in the next couple of quarters, or do we need to wait for 16 FFC for that diversification?

好的。我是否可以就第 16 個問題和第二個問題進行後續詢問。那麼，您現在如何看待 16 號客戶的成長或擴大到更多客戶的情況？我們是否應該預期客戶群的貢獻和多樣化將在未來幾季大幅成長，還是我們需要等待 16 FFC 才能實現這種多樣化？

We expect the ramp up, and probably quicker than 20 SoC. And we developed FFC; certainly we hope the 16 nanometer will become a major node. And so we expect that more business, of course.

我們預計這一成長速度可能比 20 SoC 更快。我們開發了FFC；我們當然希望16奈米成為一個主要節點。因此，我們當然期待更多的業務。

My second question, just looking ahead, because you talk about normal inventory by the end of the year, if you could talk, the last four or five years you've actually held flat, sequentially Q4 to Q1. If we should think normal inventory, do we have restocking again in first quarter, or we could have similar -- the new, post-crisis seasonality where things are stable. I guess if you can give a view how we look for demand and inventory into first quarter.

我的第二個問題是展望未來，因為您談到了年底的正常庫存，如果您可以談談，過去四五年您實際上一直保持平穩，連續第四季度到第一季。如果我們認為庫存正常，那麼我們是否會在第一季再次補貨，或者我們可能會有類似的情況——新的、危機後的季節性情況比較穩定。我想您可以談談我們如何看待第一季的需求和庫存。

Well, for the inventory in the fourth quarter our estimate is close to seasonal normal. But, as you know, the inventory going into first quarter really depends on the burn rate in the first quarter. That estimate still is a three-month backward numbers. So that's why I mentioned that some of the uncertainty at the end still exist. But we certainly hope that Q1 next year will come to a normal quarter.

嗯，對於第四季度的庫存，我們的估計接近季節性正常水平。但是，正如您所知，第一季的庫存實際上取決於第一季的消耗率。該估計數仍為三個月前的落後數字。所以這就是我為什麼提到最後仍然存在一些不確定性的原因。但我們當然希望明年第一季能夠恢復正常。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right. The next question will be also coming from the floor. It will be JP Morgan's Gokul Hariharan.

好的。下一個問題也來自現場。這個人就是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on the new opportunities that you mentioned on the computing side. Could you talk a little bit about what are the developments that you're seeing? Are we going to see opportunities on the computing side primarily on the data center side coming through? And also maybe a quick stab at what you think the opportunity could be in the next, say, couple of years on the computing side. And I have a second question to follow up.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於您提到的計算方面的新機會。您能否稍微談談您所看到的發展？我們是否會看到計算方面（主要是資料中心方面）出現的機會？您還可以快速了解您認為未來幾年在計算方面可能存在的機會。我還有第二個問題需要跟進。

Let me repeat your question so that I make sure I answer your -- the -- you mentioned about -- asked me to comment more on the computing side, whether the computing side is more on the data center or other areas.

讓我重複您的問題，以確保我能夠回答您的問題——您提到的——要求我對計算方面發表更多評論，無論計算方面更多地關注數據中心還是其他領域。

Or on the client PCs.

或在客戶端電腦上。

The client --

客戶——

The client computing side itself.

客戶端計算端本身。

Yes, I think TSMC has been supplying the processors, distributed processors in bigger shares. And more recently we see the processors' growth increasing. And therefore we think the computing market, we meant not just data center, but also the distributed processors, namely application processor. If you look at the application processor, unit growth is much faster than smartphone growth, microprocessors, Image processors, when you diagnose, absorb the images, you need to process outside. And there is still quite short about the capability of a automated car, for example. And network processor is also important. And of course we include microprocessors and CPU definitely is one area. By CPU I mean the Chrome Book, that type of distributed processors. That area we think -- we see growth and we believe, as the data continue increasing, the local processing capability has to increase tremendously. Yes.

是的，我認為台積電一直在供應處理器，分散式處理器的份額更大。最近，我們看到處理器的成長正在加快。因此，我們認為計算市場不僅僅指資料中心，還包括分散式處理器，即應用處理器。如果你看一下應用程式處理器，單位成長比智慧型手機、微處理器、影像處理器的成長要快得多，當你診斷、吸收影像時，你需要在外部處理。例如，關於自動駕駛汽車的能力，我們仍有許多不足之處。網路處理器也很重要。當然，我們包括微處理器，CPU肯定是一個領域。我所說的 CPU 是指 Chrome Book，也就是那種分散式處理器。我們認為，我們看到了該領域的成長，我們相信，隨著數據的不斷增加，本地處理能力也必須大幅提高。是的。

And when you go about this market, do you see this market probably exceeding what the current mobile application processor or mobile processor market is or any kind of estimates that you can talk about within a bit more longer-term horizon?

當您進入這個市場時，您是否認為這個市場可能超過當前的行動應用處理器或行動處理器市場，或者您可以談論在更長遠的時期內的任何估計？

Well, it is hard to estimate because the usage model, the service, those big data service, analytics services are still yet to prevail to the -- to our lives. So at this point it's not as big. And I think it will take off before the smartphones' growth stop.

嗯，這很難估計，因為使用模式、服務、大數據服務、分析服務還沒有在我們的生活中普及。所以目前為止它還沒有那麼大。我認為它將在智慧型手機成長停止之前起飛。

Okay. Just my second question is on the CapEx intensity. I think previously Lora had mentioned that we'd come down to a 35% level in capital intensity. This year we are down to around 30%. Should we think about the $8b CapEx this year as a one-off and then we go back to the normalized $9.5b, $10b levels or even higher that we saw in the last few years, or -- just some color, initial color in terms of what kind of CapEx jump are you expecting next year as you support some of these newer opportunities as well. Thanks.

好的。我的第二個問題是關於資本支出強度。我認為之前 Lora 曾提到我們的資本密集度將降至 35% 的水平。今年我們下降到了30%左右。我們是否應該將今年的 80 億美元資本支出視為一次性支出，然後回到過去幾年中看到的正常化的 95 億美元、100 億美元甚至更高的水平，或者只是一些初步的信息，即您預計明年的資本支出將出現什麼樣的增長，因為您也支持其中一些較新的機會。謝謝。

I just mentioned this year's $8b is kind of low. And next year expect to be higher than $8b, although it's too premature to give a precise number.

我剛才提到，今年的 80 億美元有點低。預計明年該數字將超過 80 億美元，不過現在給出確切數字還為時過早。

Back to my earlier comment, the future CapEx intensity will be at a mid-30% level, the statement still holds. I think it will be within 30% to 35% range.

回到我之前的評論，未來的資本支出強度將處於 30% 中間水平，該說法仍然成立。我認為它會在30%到35%的範圍內。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

All right. Next question will be coming from the floor. It will be Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

好的。下一個問題來自現場提問。將是高盛的唐納德·陸。

Hi. (Spoken in foreign language). Sorry, my first question is about the CapEx. So TSMC cut CapEx quite substantially in three months. Last time we had the guidance back in, I think, July . And I think there are three reasons. I think efficiency gain and conversion, those things doesn't seems like it's something you just find out in the last three months. Is there anything new that you realized that make you to change CapEx so much or is that -- and also I remember in the past you always talk about the CapEx today is for production a year later. Do you become very cautious about something next year? Thank you.

你好。（用外語說）。抱歉，我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。因此，台積電在三個月內大幅削減了資本支出。我記得我們上次給出指導是在七月。我認為有三個原因。我認為效率的提升和轉化，這些事情似乎不是你在過去三個月才發現的。您是否意識到了什麼新的東西，讓您對資本支出做出如此大的改變，或者——我還記得過去您總是談論今天的資本支出是為了一年後的生產。明年你會對某事變得非常謹慎嗎？謝謝。

CapEx management is a continual effort. As you say it just come out in one month or two months. So we have seen a trend. In the last quarter I mentioned about the CapEx we still hold our original number but there may be some changes. So things evolved and we continued effort to drive the CapEx efficiency. And we have gained a lot of experience doing this in the Company.

資本支出管理是一項持續的努力。正如你所說，它會在一個月或兩個月內問世。因此我們看到了一種趨勢。上個季度我提到了資本支出，我們仍然保持原來的數字，但可能會有一些變化。事情就這樣發展了，我們繼續努力提高資本支出效率。我們在公司內部也累積了豐富的經驗。

So if you look at the reductions, actually it's more than half is truly efforts, efficiency gain, of course with some help from foreign exchange rate. And some program change, including the migration and schedule change, that's response to the market. Some of that will be shifted to the next year.

因此，如果你看一下減幅，實際上其中一半以上是真正的努力和效率的提高，當然也離不開外匯匯率的幫助。一些計劃的改變，包括遷移和時間表的改變，都是對市場的反應。其中一些將轉移到明年。

Okay. My second question is on 16-nanometer ramp. Since you talk about it's going to be faster than 20-nanometer, would that imply it will be over 22% I believe in Q1 next year of your total revenue?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於 16 奈米升級的。既然您說它將比 20 奈米更快，這是否意味著它將占到明年第一季總收入的 22% 以上？

Donald, our 16 FinFET right now, most of the volume come from one single customer. So it will be very difficult for me to give you the exact number and say whether -- that it's a what percentage. Otherwise I release too much of information.

唐納德，我們目前的 16 個 FinFET，大部分產量來自同一個客戶。因此，我很難給出確切的數字，也很難告訴你這個百分比是多少。否則我會發布太多資訊。

Okay. But it will be faster --

好的。但它會更快——

It will be faster.

將會更快。

-- than 20-nanometer.

——超過20奈米。

Yes, trust what we said.

是的，相信我們所說的話。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Next it will be from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

接下來是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Good afternoon. I think that it's unusual for TSMC to have this within quarter pre-announcement and also give the guidance one month ahead of the revenue -- earning release. So just wondering what have you seen by layer and how does it compare with the view now, if it's improving or if it's stabilized or even deteriorating. Thank you.

午安.我認為台積電在季度預告中就做出這一決定，並在收入盈利公佈前一個月就給出指引，這很不尋常。所以只是想知道您在各個層面上看到了什麼，以及它與現在的視圖相比如何，它是否正在改善，是否穩定甚至惡化。謝謝。

Let me take these questions. The announcement we did on September 23 as a pre-alert, actually we have given better guidance for third quarter. So it's not really regarding the third quarter.

請讓我來回答這些問題。我們在 9 月 23 日發布的公告作為預警，實際上我們已經為第三季提供了更好的指導。所以這其實與第三季無關。

But being a transparent company, we like to be transparent, we feel the expectation for the rest of the year, analyst expectation for the rest of the year may be higher than our forecast. So we feel there's a need to come out and say something. That was the basis for the alert announcement.

但作為一家透明的公司，我們喜歡保持透明，我們認為今年剩餘時間的預期，分析師對今年剩餘時間的預期可能高於我們的預測。所以我們覺得有必要站出來發表一些言論。這就是發布警報的基礎。

Okay, so now for the 4Q revenue guidance, the lower end is higher right now than the Company guided a month ago. So does that mean that we are actually seeing more confidence on the demand side?

好的，現在對於第四季營收預測，目前的下限高於公司一個月前的預測。那麼這是否意味著我們實際上看到了需求方面的更多信心？

I recall the alert we gave a higher range, a bigger range. I was saying TWD198m to TWD204m. Now the range gets smaller but towards the high-end side. As time goes by we have a more clear picture of what we are looking at in the fourth quarter.

我記得我們發出的警報範圍更高、更大。我說的是1.98億新台幣到2.04億新台幣。現在範圍變小了，但更趨向高端。隨著時間的推移，我們對第四季的情況有了更清晰的認識。

And also for the margin, margin forecast, I think in 3Q we have a margin impact by the inventory valuation adjustment and also for this 16-nanometer ramp dilution. So are these going to be the key impact in 4Q or going forward? How about -- is there any margin downside impact upon this one?

對於利潤率和利潤率預測，我認為第三季我們的利潤率會受到庫存估值調整以及 16 奈米產能稀釋的影響。那麼這些會成為第四季或未來的關鍵影響嗎？那麼——這對利潤率有下檔影響嗎？

The inventory is related to the utilization changes, not too much about how big this utilization changes. When there is an upswing there will a negative inventory adjustment. When there is a downswing there will be a positive inventory adjustment. That has been like that for a long time.

庫存與利用率的變化有關，但不要過度關注利用率的變化有多大。當出現上升趨勢時，就會出現負庫存調整。當出現下滑趨勢時，就會出現正面的庫存調整。這種情況已經持續很久了。

The other one is the 16 FinFET dilution. Since we just started ramping, there will be some dilution. We expect the dilution will be smaller next year, about 1 percentage point to corporate average and beyond that it will be less than 1 percentage point. So it will be smaller.

另外一個就是16 FinFET稀釋。由於我們剛開始擴大規模，因此會存在一些稀釋。我們預計明年稀釋度會較小，約為公司平均的 1 個百分點，超過這個數字則會低於 1 個百分點。所以它會更小。

So the whole year, whole year impact will be 1 percentage point.

因此全年影響將為 1 個百分點。

For this year, it's 2 to 3 percentage point. Next year it will be about 1 percentage point. After that, it will be smaller than 1 percentage point.

今年則為2至3個百分點。明年將會是1個百分點左右。此後，該比例將小於1個百分點。

Okay, thank you. My second question is for the 16-nanometer InFO. So how many percent of the 16-nanometer wafers is adopting InFO packaging next year?

好的，謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於 16 奈米 InFO。那麼明年有多少比例的16奈米晶圓會採用InFO封裝呢？

It's a question is pretty hard to estimate at this time. But I would say it's quite a portion of it.

這是目前很難估計的問題。但我想說這佔了相當大一部分。

Okay, so by -- this definition, so how are you going to build your InFO capacity accordingly?

好的，那麼根據這個定義，您將如何相應地建立您的 InFO 容量？

It's according to customers demand of course.

當然是根據客戶的需求。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I understand. And I think I have one last question, even for the 16-nanometer. Since the 16-nanometer is going to be a long node, same as 28-nanometer, so what is the ultimate capacity you are going to build for 16-nanometer?

我明白。我想我還有最後一個問題，即使是針對 16 奈米的。由於 16 奈米將是一個長節點，與 28 奈米相同，那麼您為 16 奈米構建的最終容量是多少？

It will be according to customers' demand again.

將會根據客戶的需求再次進行。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right. Next will be -- questions will be coming from the floor. It will be UBS, Eric Chen.

好的。接下來是——來自現場的提問。是瑞銀的 Eric Chen。

Okay. My first question, very quickly, Lora, is about the CapEx cut right and how about the capacity plan for the 8-inch. What kind of capacity expansion we should put on our model for this year? And how about the 28-nanometer process? Can you give us update more elaborate?

好的。我的第一個問題，Lora，是關於資本支出削減以及 8 英寸的產能計劃如何。我們今年應該在哪些方面擴大產能？那麼28奈米製程又如何呢？您能給我們更詳細的更新嗎？

I will talk about the Company as a whole, capacity plan. With the TWD8b CapEx I was talking about, we expect the year-over-year capacity for the TSMC will increase by 12% combined. Mostly of course, the majority is 12-inch.

我將談論公司整體的產能計劃。加上我所說的 80 億新台幣的資本支出，我們預期台積電的年產能將比去年同期增加 12%。當然大多都是12吋的居多。

So no idea for the 28?

那麼不知道 28 是什麼嗎？

I prefer not to disclose individual technology node capacity.

我不想透露單一技術節點的容量。

Okay, thank you. Appreciate it.

好的，謝謝。非常感謝。

And also, Dr. Wei, I remember you talked about the 7-nano fully leverage the 10-nano, the equipment right, over the Dr. Liu, I apologize. That's an interesting point. When you talk about the full leveraging, I mean the compatible around equipment, available to comparable switch from the 10-nano to 7-nano based on your internal plan. Is that correct?

另外，魏博士，我記得您談到了 7 奈米充分利用 10 奈米的設備，對吧，劉博士，我很抱歉。這是一個有趣的觀點。當您談到充分利用時，我的意思是相容於周圍的設備，可以根據您的內部計劃從 10 奈米切換到 7 奈米。對嗎？

Eric, I think your question is asking whether or not there is a lot of common tools between 7 nanometer --

Eric，我認為你的問題是問 7 奈米之間是否有很多通用工具——

Yes, right.

是的，對。

-- and 10-nanometer the way like between 20 and 16-nanometer.

——以及 10 奈米，就像 20 和 16 奈米之間一樣。

Yes, we develop our 7-nanometer with the low cost target. Therefore when we develop this technology we will make use of 10-nanometer equipment as much as possible. At this point, more than 90% of the 10-nanometer tool can be directly used by 7-nanometer.

是的，我們開發 7 奈米的目標是低成本。因此我們在開發這項技術的時候會盡量利用10奈米的設備。此時，90%以上的10奈米工具可以直接用於7奈米。

How about from the 16 to 10? How many percent? Is that possible to quantify?

從 16 到 10 怎麼樣？百分之多少？這可以量化嗎？

From 16 to 10 it's lesser requirement because we -- 16 will be a long node and it will be fully utilized. Instead the 10-nanometer will be a shorter node, but therefore we can -- we take particular focus on the tool migration efficiency.

從 16 到 10 的要求較低，因為我們 - 16 將是一個長節點，它將被充分利用。相反，10 奈米將是一個更短的節點，但因此我們可以——我們特別關注工具遷移效率。

Okay, that's interesting. For the 16 how you judge it as a long node. If we look at the schedule probably around five quarters, the switch from the 16 to 10 and from the 10 to 7, right, in terms of the geometry migration schedule almost the same. So how you define that 16 is a long node and the -- sorry, the 16 is a long node but 10 is a short node. How do you make such a judgment? Thank you.

好的，這很有趣。對於 16，你如何判斷它是一個長節點。如果我們看一下大概在五個季度左右的時間表，從 16 到 10 的轉換，從 10 到 7 的轉換，就幾何遷移時間表而言幾乎相同。那你如何定義 16 是一個長節點以及－抱歉，16 是一個長節點，而 10 是一個短節點。如何做出這樣的判斷？謝謝。

Actually we are working with the customer and then according to their product requirement and also their product roadmap. So customer and TSMC determine that which node will be best performance and best cost effective. So that's why we can say that the 16 FinFET right now it will be a long node as compared with 20-nanometer.

實際上，我們正​​在與客戶合作，然後根據他們的產品要求和產品路線圖進行合作。因此，客戶和台積電決定哪個節點具有最佳效能和最佳成本效益。因此，我們可以說，與 20 奈米相比，16 FinFET 現在將是一個長節點。

So more like the survey feedback from the client.

所以更像是來自客戶的調查回饋。

Yes, that's a between cooperation, TSMC and customers.

是的，這是台積電和客戶的合作。

Okay, last question. In terms of the InFO are you going to build on the standard in the industry for the InFO technology?

好的，最後一個問題。就 InFO 而言，您是否打算建立 InFO 技術的業界標準？

We built InFO to meet customers' demand and to fulfill their requirements. We did not think about something else.

我們建立 InFO 是為了滿足客戶的需求並滿足他們的要求。我們沒有考慮其他事情。

Okay. But you will build out the standard right. I'm sorry. Okay, thank you. Thank you very much.

好的。但你會建立正確的標準。對不起。好的，謝謝。非常感謝。

All right. Next one will be coming from the floor. It will Morgan Stanley's, Bill Lu.

好的。下一個將來自地板。將是摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Hi, thank you very much. So a follow-up on Eric's question on this concept of equipment reuse. I guess first of all, does that change how you depreciate.

你好，非常感謝。因此，我們對 Eric 關於設備再利用概念的問題進行了後續回答。我想首先，這會改變你的折舊方式嗎？

And secondly, I'm not sure if you agree but it seems to me like it's not just a one node phenomena, the next several nodes you might have more and more equipment reuse than what you've seen in the past. I'm just wondering if you could tell me whether you agree with that and if you do, what does that mean for your business model as far as return on investment. Thanks.

其次，我不確定您是否同意，但在我看來，這不僅僅是一個節點現象，接下來的幾個節點可能會比過去看到更多的設備重複使用。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我您是否同意這一點，如果同意，那麼就投資回報而言，這對您的商業模式意味著什麼。謝謝。

Let me answer the first part of your questions regarding the reuse. Are we changing any depreciation rule? For the manufacturing tool, we use five years straight line depreciation. But there are some called orphan idle tool. That means these tools cannot be converted to next generation. For those tools we use three years. So we specially identify which part cannot be converted.

讓我回答您關於重用的問題的第一部分。我們要改變任何折舊規則嗎？對於製造工具，我們使用五年直線折舊法。但也有一些被稱為孤兒閒置工具。這意味著這些工具無法轉換為下一代。我們花了三年時間才獲得這些工具。所以我們專門標識了哪些部分是不能轉換的。

Actually with the effort from our operation people this non-convertible part becomes smaller and smaller. Mark was talking about, above 90%, actually it's very close to 95% are convertible to next generation.

實際上，在我們營運人員的努力下，這個不可轉換的部分變得越來越小。馬克說的是，90% 以上，實際上接近 95% 可以轉換為下一代。

Sorry, just to be clear, so if you set a tool at 20 and you now convert to 16, the schedule doesn't change on the depreciation if it's converted right.

抱歉，只是為了清楚起見，如果您將工具設為 20，現在轉換為 16，則如果轉換正確，折舊計劃不會改變。

It doesn't change. It doesn't change.

它沒有改變。它沒有改變。

Can I ask you what do you mean by business model you have in mind?

可以問一下您心目中的商業模式是什麼嗎？

I guess I just feel like the smartphone is now such a big part of the overall industry and it's driving a lot of the leading edge. When that starts moving to the next generation, maybe the second wave and the third wave aren't going to be as big as say they used to be, in comparison. And so maybe you convert more of 16 to 10 than you did historically where you kept all those old nodes for a long, long time. I wonder if you see that as a trend and what does that mean for your business model.

我想我只是覺得智慧型手機現在已經成為整個產業的重要組成部分，並且推動著許多尖端技術的發展。當這一趨勢開始轉向下一代時，相較之下，第二波和第三波可能不會像以前那麼大。因此，您可能會將更多的 16 轉換為 10，而以前您所做的是將所有這些舊節點保留很長一段時間。我想知道您是否認為這是一種趨勢，以及這對您的商業模式意味著什麼。

I think the reason we are very focused on the tool compatibility is indeed what you mentioned. The second wave and third wave, some of them may not catch up as fast as in the past.

我想我們非常注重工具相容性的原因確實就是您提到的。第二波、第三波，有些可能趕不上過去那麼快。

But we do this, it's for the maximum effectiveness to provide our technology to our customer. Many of our customer have their products scheduled differently. So some of the customer will ride on -- will have their product launch at a different time than the other. And we pace our technology so that they can take the maximum benefit of a particular set of tools and with the most updated technology capability. And so that's our value to our customers.

但我們這樣做是為了最大限度地向客戶提供我們的技術。我們的許多客戶的產品安排都不同。因此，有些客戶會選擇在與其他客戶不同的時間推出他們的產品。我們不斷改進技術，以便他們能夠最大限度地利用特定的工具集和最新的技術能力。這就是我們對客戶的價值。

But the added burden for us is of course to manage the tool compatibility. And I think we are -- we have the profitability target in mind to ensure that we will keep that.

但對我們來說額外的負擔當然是管理工具相容性。我認為我們—我們已經設定了獲利目標，以確保我們能夠維持這一目標。

I wasn't exactly clear. I guess what I was getting at is if you have more reuse and more conversion maybe it needs lower capital spending going forward structurally?

我不太清楚。我想我的意思是，如果你有更多的重複使用和更多的轉換，也許它需要從結構上降低資本支出？

Can you repeat your question or your comments?

您能重複您的問題或評論嗎？

Want my help? My interpretation of Bill's question is that because we are using a lot of those reuse because of the high common tools and therefore the need for our fresh new capital investments actually the burden is lighter and it should actually help our profitability and return.

想要我的幫忙嗎？我對比爾問題的理解是，由於我們使用了大量可重複使用的工具，而且這些工具非常通用，因此我們需要新的資本投資，實際上負擔較輕，這實際上應該有助於我們的盈利能力和回報。

Of course. That's why we want to make it most effective of the tools.

當然。這就是為什麼我們要使其成為最有效的工具。

How do you quantify that?

您如何量化這一點？

How do I quantify the effectiveness?

我如何量化其有效性？

Maybe I don't know if you can help me with the amount of reuse today versus say, last generation or how you think about CapEx intensity now versus last generation.

也許我不知道您是否可以幫助我了解當今與上一代產品的重複使用量，或者您如何看待現在與上一代產品的資本支出強度。

The CapEx intensity for each node is for the -- capital intensity is increasing for each node. Therefore we try every way to reduce that and make it more effective to counter that heavy loading. And that's the migration, tool migration is about. If you want me to quantify maybe Lora can help me.

每個節點的資本支出強度是－每個節點的資本強度都在增加。因此，我們想盡一切辦法減少這種情況，並使其更有效地應對沉重的負擔。這就是遷移，工具遷移。如果你想讓我量化，也許 Lora 可以幫我。

Let me try, Bill. Remember this question has popped up quite often. Maybe two or three years ago, we were talking about the conversion rate is more than 70% and then we said it's more than 85% and now we are saying it's above 90% and 95%. That's the effort we made doing this process.

讓我試試，比爾。請記住，這個問題經常出現。也許兩三年前，我們談論的轉換率是 70% 以上，然後我們說是 85% 以上，現在我們說是 90% 和 95% 以上。這就是我們在過程中所做的努力。

There's many ways. You have to start from the design phases. You have to look at the design. You make sure that tool gets utilized more than one generation, that's one thing. The other one is you need to know how to modify the tool so that you don't have to buy a new one. That's another reason. So there are many, many things happening in the factory and we are giving an aggressive target on this and we measure that.

方法有很多種。您必須從設計階段開始。你必須看一下設計。你要確保這個工具能被一代又一代人使用，這是一回事。另一個是您需要知道如何修改該工具，這樣您就不必購買新的工具。這是另一個原因。工廠裡發生了很多事情，我們為此設定了一個積極的目標，並對此進行衡量。

Thank you. The second question is for Dr. Liu. You had given us some of your new demand drivers which are very helpful. Can you look at how that impacts the foundry industry? If you look at 10-nanometers, how big do you think is the foundry market with these added demand drivers versus say, 16 or versus 28?

謝謝。第二個問題是問劉博士的。您為我們提供了一些非常有幫助的新需求驅動因素。您能看看這對鑄造產業有何影響嗎？如果您看一下 10 奈米，您認為與 16 奈米或 28 奈米相比，這些增加的需求驅動因素帶來的代工市場規模有多大？

I just feel like we've talked a lot about the ramp right, but the ramp is a little bit different now because it's one customer specific. So can you look at the overall margin as it matures?

我只是覺得我們已經談論了很多關於坡道的事情，但是現在坡道有點不同，因為它是針對特定客戶的。那麼，您能看看它成熟後的整體利潤率嗎？

The drivers I mentioned about mostly is to show the demand for the leading edge technology where the computing is hunger for either fast speed or for mobile lowest power. And therefore you can see we benefit more on the leading edge technology compared to other foundry players. And I do see the trend will continue, the leading edge proportion of profit really will increase as time goes.

我主要提到的驅動因素是為了展示對尖端技術的需求，即計算需要快速度或移動最低功耗。因此，您可以看到，與其他代工廠商相比，我們在前沿技術上獲益更多。我確實看到這種趨勢將會持續下去，隨著時間的推移，前沿利潤的比例確實會增加。

Do you think 10-nano will be a bigger node than 28?

您認為 10 奈米節點會比 28 奈米節點更大嗎？

It's too early to tell. I think in the beginning of 28-nanometer, we didn't think 28 is so big either. And I believe as we right now size our capacity only according to our customers' demand. But as time goes on, we may see that differently. And we expect it should be comparable. But at this point at early stage it's indeed much like 28 in the beginning. It's smaller than what 28 is today.

現在下結論還為時過早。我認為在28奈米剛開始的時候，我們也沒有想到28會這麼大。我相信，我們現在只根據客戶的需求來決定產能大小。但隨著時間的推移，我們可能會有不同的看法。我們期望它應該是可比的。但在早期階段，它確實很像一開始的 28。它比今天的 28 要小。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, I think it's about time that we will take our next question from the call. Operator, please proceed with the next caller on the line.

好的，我想現在是時候回答電話中的下一個問題了。接線生，請繼續接聽下一位來電。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特·辛普森（Brett Simpson），Arete Research。

Yes, thanks very much. I have a question for Lora on FX. Lora, can you just confirm do you sell -- does TSMC sell all of the wafers in US dollars? And on the gross margin side, can you perhaps give us a sense for how cost of sales breaks down between US dollar and Taiwan, so we can understand the movements in FX on the gross margin side.

是的，非常感謝。我有一個關於 FX 的問題想問 Lora。Lora，您能否確認一下台積電是否以美元出售所有晶圓？在毛利率方面，您能否告訴我們美元和新台幣之間的銷售成本是如何分攤的，以便我們了解毛利率方面的外匯變動情況。

And maybe for Mark, regarding 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer, so your sales in Q3 combined is just over 20% of sales. How do you see these combined nodes as a percent of sales in 2016 and how might it split between 20 and 16-nanometer? Thank you.

對於馬克來說，可能涉及 16 奈米和 20 奈米，所以你們第三季的銷售額總和略高於銷售額的 20%。您如何看待這些組合節點在 2016 年銷售額中所佔的百分比以及 20 奈米和 16 奈米之間的分配情況？謝謝。

Let me answer the first part of the question regarding the foreign exchange rate. Yes, indeed our revenue more than 99% denominated in US dollars.

我先回答關於匯率的問題的第一部分。是的，我們的收入確實有 99% 以上是以美元計價的。

In terms of purchasing, not so much on cost of sales, in terms of purchasing I think we have about 50% in US dollars and 20% in euro, 20% in TWD and the rest in Japanese yen. So that's the effect of revenue minus the cost impact. As you recall, we have said earlier, 1% FX impact will change our gross margin rate by 0.4 percentage point. This rule of thumb still holds today.

在採購方面，銷售成本並不重要，在採購方面，我認為我們大約有 50% 以美元支付，20% 以歐元支付，20% 以新台幣支付，其餘以日元支付。這就是收入減去成本影響的結果。您還記得，我們​​之前說過，1% 的外匯影響將使我們的毛利率改變 0.4 個百分點。這條經驗法則至今仍然適用。

The second part of Brett's question is combined 16 and 20-nanometer proportion to revenue next year.

Brett 問題的第二部分是明年 16 奈米和 20 奈米的綜合收入比例。

That will be greater than this year I can say, but I cannot have a very accurate number right now to share with you.

我可以說，這個數字將比今年更大，但我現在無法給出一個非常準確的數字與你們分享。

So Brett, you have to wait a little bit longer.

所以布雷特，你還得再等一會兒。

Maybe if I can follow up about 2016. I think you talked in the prepared remarks about growing sales next year double digit. And I know you mentioned FX would be a big driver in achieving double-digit growth, revenue growth next year.

也許我可以跟進 2016 年的情況。我認為您在準備好的發言中談到了明年銷售額將成長兩位數。我知道您提到外匯將成為明年兩位數成長、營收成長的重要推動力。

But if I look at the market on a US dollar basis, what are the demand drivers you see in 2016 because it's clear the Android smartphone market is having a lot of price pressure and next year the iPhone will have much tougher compares. So what are you most optimistic about in demand and is there a risk leading edge demand may disappoint next year? Thank you.

但如果我從美元角度來看市場，那麼 2016 年的需求驅動因素是什麼？因為很明顯，Android 智慧型手機市場面臨很大的價格壓力，而明年 iPhone 的競爭將更加激烈。那麼，您對需求最樂觀的是什麼呢？明年前沿需求是否存在令人失望的風險？謝謝。

So Brett's question is about next year's growth driver, given that smartphones is experiencing very heavy pricing pressure. And it has actually been a pretty significant growth driver for TSMC in the last few years. So what would be the demand driver for TSMC next year?

因此，布雷特的問題是關於明年的成長動力，因為智慧型手機正面臨非常大的定價壓力。事實上，在過去幾年裡，它已經成為台積電相當重要的成長動力。那麼明年台積電的需求驅動因素是什麼？

Well, it's still going to be leading edge technology and we see mostly it will still be high-end smartphones.

嗯，它仍然會是前沿技術，而且我們看到它主要仍然是高端智慧型手機。

Brett, maybe I can add a little bit, one element to that. Not only it, it is the smartphones but also TSMC increasing our penetration in the smartphones.

布雷特，也許我可以添加一點，一個元素。不僅如此，還有智慧型手機，而且台積電也在提高我們在智慧型手機領域的滲透率。

All right. Next question will still be coming from the line. Operator, could you please go to the next person on the line?

好的。下一個問題仍將來自線上。接線生，請您接通下一位接線生好嗎？

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

邁赫迪·胡賽尼（Mehdi Hosseini），SIG。

Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. The first question has to do with the first quarter. It seems unusual that your customers' forecasts are still uncertain especially after several quarters of working down inventories. Is it right to assume that this cycle, inventory correction cycle is indeed different than the previous cycles, especially when we look at your cycle time averaging two months and keep in mind that Chinese New Year in February coming and your customers even after several quarters of inventory digestion are still not willing to refresh inventories? I want to get more insight from you on this factor and I have a follow up. Thank you.

謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題與第一季有關。您的客戶的預測仍然不確定，尤其是在經過幾個季度的庫存減少之後，這似乎很不尋常。是否可以假設這個週期、庫存調整週期確實與以前的周期不同，特別是當我們看到您的週期時間平均為兩個月，並且考慮到二月份中國新年即將到來，並且您的客戶即使經過幾個季度的庫存消化仍然不願意更新庫存？我想從您那裡獲得有關這個因素的更多見解，並且我會進行跟進。謝謝。

All right. So Mehdi let me repeat your question. Basically you're a little bit surprised by the length of time that our customers is going through the inventory digestion. As you said that it has already been going on for several quarters. And then given the cycle time it is about average two months, why do -- why does TSMC still have certain uncertainty about the first quarter next year?

好的。所以 Mehdi，請容許我重複你的問題。基本上，你會對我們的客戶消化庫存的時間長度感到有點驚訝。正如您所說，這種情況已經持續了幾個季度。那麼考慮到週期時間平均約為兩個月，為什麼──為什麼台積電對明年第一季仍有一定的不確定性？

Okay. Let me answer about the inventory in a -- for the whole year. For TSMC as you recall our first year -- first quarter is a pretty good quarter. It's flat typically in Q4. Q1 is a weaker quarter. Then we find out that actually the first quarter the inventory is -- actually is higher than the -- than seasonal normal by several days.

好的。讓我來回答一下全年的庫存狀況。對於台積電來說，正如你們所記得的，我們的第一年——第一季是一個相當不錯的季度。第四季通常持平。Q1 是較為疲軟的季度。然後我們發現，實際上第一季的庫存比季節性正常水平高出幾天。

And then we were thinking of how this inventory will work down. But unfortunately the demand in China turned sour during the first and going into second quarter, coming down very fast. That surprises us. Therefore -- our customers too. Therefore, the inventory really didn't work down that well. As a matter of fact, it actually increases. So that puts everybody -- uncertain on the inventory.

然後我們在思考如何減少這個庫存。但不幸的是，中國的需求在第一季和第二季開始變差，下降非常快。這讓我們很驚訝。因此——我們的客戶也是如此。因此，庫存實際上並沒有發揮那麼好的作用。事實上，它確實增加了。因此，每個人都對庫存感到不確定。

And we look at the Q3, I think Q3 traditionally is a strong quarter and the people still didn't really cut down their inventory that boldly. And therefore we see at the end of Q3 it still didn't come down too much.

讓我們看一下第三季度，我認為第三季度傳統上是一個強勁的季度，人們仍然沒有那麼大膽地削減庫存。因此我們看到，在第三季末，它仍然沒有下降太多。

And however, from the current global economy and perspective, people really put it the realistic view and we look at the Q4, indeed people are actively adjusting inventory just like several other years and they try to reach the inventory towards the seasonal level. And that's why we see the weaker, particularly weaker Q4. And that's the situation.

然而，從當前的全球經濟和角度來看，人們確實持現實觀點，我們看一下第四季度，人們確實像其他幾年一樣積極調整庫存，並試圖使庫存達到季節性水平。這就是我們預期第四季經濟將更加疲軟，尤其是疲軟的原因。情況就是這樣。

So this year is very different than last year and I hope it's not going to replay next year.

所以今年與去年有很大不同，我希望明年不要重演。

So Mehdi --

所以邁赫迪——

And then as a follow up, the second question, I want to revisit the 10-nanometer. In the past you have suggested that 10-nanometer contribution would start in Q4 of 2016. Is that forecast still remaining the same? And if the InFO would start generating $100m per quarter, is that part of the 10-nanometer or should we account the InFO as an additional line -- source of revenue?

然後作為後續的第二個問題，我想重新討論 10 奈米。您之前曾表示，10 奈米貢獻將於 2016 年第四季開始。該預測仍然保持不變嗎？如果 InFO 每季開始產生 1 億美元的收入，那麼這是否屬於 10 奈米的一部分，還是我們應該將 InFO 視為額外的收入來源？

All right. Mehdi's question is will we as we said before begin to see revenue contribution from 10-nanometer starting in fourth quarter 2016. And then whether or not the $100m quarterly revenue by 4Q 2016 from InFO included the 10-nanometer revenue.

好的。Mehdi 的問題是，正如我們之前所說，我們是否會從 2016 年第四季開始看到 10 奈米的收入貢獻。那麼，截至 2016 年第四季度，InFO 的 1 億美元季度收入是否包括 10 奈米收入。

I'll answer the first question. Yes, we did one time talk about we want to enable customers' production at the end of 2016. But the first customer we have that's played it in a conservative way and they didn't set the most aggressive schedule. And they put the production of 10-nanometer as planned as their product plan, according to their product plan. And that plan has not changed and we continue to develop technology to produce the best quality 10 to fit that schedule still.

我來回答第一個問題。是的，我們確實曾經談論過我們希望在 2016 年底實現客戶的生產。但是我們的第一位客戶採取了保守的做法，他們沒有製定最積極的時間表。並且他們按照他們的產品計劃，將10奈米的生產計劃按照他們的產品計劃進行。該計劃沒有改變，我們將繼續開發技術來生產最優質的 10 輛汽車，以滿足該計劃。

So we talk about we're going to freeze this technology this quarter and going about the qualification and prepare to the same production schedule of 10-nanometer next year.

因此，我們討論的是，我們將在本季度凍結這項技術，並進行資格認證，為明年相同的 10 奈米生產計劃做準備。

I'll answer the second question, the second part of this question on InFO's revenue next year. In the fourth quarter, as I stated, it will be more than $100m per quarter by InFO alone, not with the silicon wafer or others.

我來回答第二個問題，這個問題的第二部分是關於 InFO 明年的收入。正如我所說，在第四季度，光是 InFO 每季度的收入就將超過 1 億美元，而矽片或其他產品的收入則沒有這麼高。

Okay. Let's now coming back to the floor. Next question will be coming from the floor, a follow-up from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的。現在讓我們回到正題。下一個問題來自現場，是瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams) 的後續問題。

I wanted to ask a follow-up. Just -- you mentioned about InFO $100m. Could you talk about the scope of the whole back-end business because you're also doing bumping, CoWoS, maybe the size of the back-end business? And as InFO ramps, what do you see as potential, if you have any aspirations? How big you think it could be 12 to 18 months from now?

我想問一個後續問題。剛才—您提到了 InFO 1 億美元。您能否談談整個後端業務的範圍，因為您也在做 bumping、CoWoS，也許是後端業務的規模？隨著 InFO 的發展，您認為有哪些潛力，有什麼期望嗎？您認為 12 到 18 個月後它會有多大？

InFO's revenue will be part of the whole back-end and certainly the back-end business is much bigger than this $100m per quarter. As far as how big it is that will depend on our demand from the customer for next year. So I cannot give you roughly a right number right now.

InFO 的收入將成為整個後端的一部分，而且後端業務肯定比每季 1 億美元大得多。至於規模有多大，則取決於我們明年的客戶需求。所以我現在無法給你一個大致正確的數字。

The second follow-up question, we got a lot of reuse this year. Could you talk about for next year, the 20/16, are you through with that reuse or do you see potential to get some savings from 20/16 or from some of the prior nodes? So do you think next year could be a year you get some of those reuse?

第二個後續問題，我們今年得到了很多重複使用。您能否談談明年，即 20/16，您是否已經完成了重複使用，或者您是否認為從 20/16 或一些先前的節點中獲得一些節省的潛力？那麼您認為明年您會重複使用其中一些嗎？

And then if we're looking at CapEx of TWD10b this year -- sorry, TWD8b this year, what that means for depreciation and for next year, if it's going to be a much more modest increase on depreciation?

然後，如果我們看看今年的資本支出為 100 億新台幣——抱歉，是 80 億新台幣，這對折舊和明年意味著什麼，如果折舊會增加得更為溫和呢？

Randy, I did not catch up your first part of reuse. Reuse of what?

蘭迪，我沒有趕上你關於重用的第一部分。重複利用什麼？

Sorry, for the capacity. If you convert more capacity next year, if you see more CapEx savings from converting 20 to 16 or some of your prior nodes like 28 or lagging nodes to reuse and move tools down. If you think next year is another year to reuse CapEx or reuse capacity to save CapEx next year.

抱歉，容量有限。如果您明年轉換更多容量，如果您發現將 20 個節點轉換為 16 個節點或將一些先前的節點（如 28 個或滯後節點）轉換為可重複使用並向下移動工具可以節省更多資本支出。如果您認為明年是重複使用資本支出或重複使用產能以節省明年資本支出的另一年。

In other words he's asking whether the conversion between 20-nanometer to 16-nanometer will continue into next year and whether there will be other type of conversions, for example converting from 28-nanometer to some other nodes also occurring next year.

換句話說，他問的是 20 奈米到 16 奈米之間的轉換是否會持續到明年，以及是否還會有其他類型的轉換，例如明年也會發生從 28 奈米到其他節點的轉換。

We continue to convert 20-nanometers capacity into 16 FinFET to meet the customers' demand, I described in my presentation.

我們繼續將20奈米產能轉換為16個FinFET以滿足客戶的需求，我在演講中描述。

And if I can make some comments on this, actually the conversions depend on the demand on those two technologies and it is an ongoing process. Obviously we have started conversion this year and it will depend on next year's demand. If there's a need, we will convert, continue doing that.

如果我可以對此發表一些評論的話，實際上轉換取決於對這兩種技術的需求，這是一個持續的過程。顯然，我們今年已經開始轉換，這將取決於明年的需求。如果有需要，我們就會轉變，並且繼續這樣做。

On depreciation.

關於折舊。

Depreciation, I can talk about this year first. This year we expect with TWD8b CapEx, depreciation is going to go up by about 11% to 12%. And next year since we have not fixed the CapEx yet, but it will not be a very high number either.

折舊，我可以先講一下今年的狀況。我們預計今年資本支出為 80 億新台幣，折舊率將上升約 11% 至 12%。明年我們還沒有確定資本支出，但這個數字也不會很高。

Okay, next questions will be coming from HSBC, Steven Pelayo.

好的，下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的史蒂文·佩拉約 (Steven Pelayo)。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups here. You mentioned that 16 and 20 combined will definitely grow year on year. I'm just curious in terms of sequential trends, it's about 21% of revenues. Does that grow every quarter, when you look into Q4 and Q1?

這裡僅有幾個快速的後續問題。您提到16和20加起來一定會逐年成長。我只是對連續趨勢感到好奇，它約佔收入的 21%。當您查看第四季度和第一季時，這個數字是否每季都在成長？

It will grow year on year but I cannot comment on the quarter. Alright?

它會逐年增長，但我無法對季度情況發表評論。好吧？

Okay, fair enough. Three, four, five years ago, I think Chairman mentioned that the one number that really summarized it quite cleanly and easily for us was that with this move to smartphones, we were going to see a tripling of the silicon content per phone. And lo and behold, it's really what drove TSMC on top with some share gains and really no Intel in this mobile phone world.

好吧，夠公平。三、四、五年前，主席提到過，一個數字可以非常清晰、輕鬆地概括這一點，那就是隨著智慧型手機的普及，我們將看到每部手機的矽含量增加兩倍。你瞧，這才是真正推動台積電在手機領域佔據領先地位並取得市場份額成長，而英特爾卻無力回天的原因。

I guess as I'm thinking over the next three, four, five years, you guys are highlighting Internet traffic and even that's only 11m servers a year, not really that big. Cars are only 60m, 70m cars per year. So it's very difficult I think for us now to really see something that can be as significant, even with a sizeable market and the silicon content increase potential.

我想，當我思考未來三、四、五年時，你們會強調網路流量，即使那每年也只有 1,100 萬台伺服器，實際上並不是那麼大。每年汽車只有6000萬到7000萬輛。因此，我認為，即使市場規模龐大且矽含量具有增加潛力，我們現在也很難真正看到具有如此重大意義的東西。

So I guess when you're thinking out over the next three four years or so, what do you think are the biggest drivers? What's that same driver that we saw five years ago like we saw with smartphones? What excites you most I guess? And can you quantify it a little bit to a simple sentence like that?

所以我想，當您思考未來三、四年左右的時候，您認為最大的驅動力是什麼？我們五年前看到的驅動因素和智慧型手機上看到的驅動因素有什麼相同之處？我猜什麼最讓你興奮？您能將它量化為像這樣的簡單句子嗎？

Steven, this is a tough one. I mentioned all the trends of computing. Actually in IoT mostly growth will come from computing because the sensor and connectivity are more mature technologies. There is nothing, killer apps as the smartphone today. But as you know, all the computation demand, some of the usage model come and goes. It wasn't successful. For example, we're still yet to know whether the watch will becoming a usage -- people will get used to it or not, drone or other things, home devices.

史蒂文，這個問題很難回答。我提到了計算的所有趨勢。實際上，物聯網的主要成長將來自運算，因為感測器和連接是更成熟的技術。如今，沒有什麼能像智慧型手機一樣成為殺手級應用。但如你所知，所有的計算需求、一些使用模型都會來來去去。但沒成功。例如，我們還不知道手錶是否會成為一種用途——人們是否會習慣它，無人機或其他家用設備。

So I just don't have a clear naming for that gadgets. But I think what I can say is just like five years ago, the connectivity and communication is a definitive trend. Therefore, we see the smartphone will come and indeed it did. It does pay.

所以我對這些小工具沒有一個明確的命名。但我認為我可以說，就像五年前一樣，連結性和通訊是一個明確的趨勢。因此，我們看到智慧型手機的到來，事實也確實如此。它確實有回報。

However, going forward how this computation come into what form of gadgets, actually I cannot clearly describe to you. But if you -- people still talk about their -- the smartphone in their pockets is too hot or doesn't take enough, long enough time. And let alone any virtual reality or augmented reality can be feed through your smartphone. Your smartphone would die within one hour if you're doing that.

但是，這個計算以後具體怎麼會進入到什麼形式的小工具裡面，其實我還不能很清楚的跟大家描述。但是，如果人們仍然在談論他們的口袋裡的智慧型手機太熱或充電時間不夠長。更不用說任何虛擬實境或擴增實境都可以透過智慧型手機實現。如果你這樣做，你的智慧型手機將在一小時內沒電。

Your entertainment, people would like to watch 3DTV, but really the kids today are really looking at entertainment of a different form. They want to evolve into the virtual reality and that could be the future form of entertainment. Do we call that movie theater? Maybe. But it could be different names.

在娛樂方面，人們喜歡看 3D 電視，但事實上，今天的孩子們喜歡觀看不同形式的娛樂。他們希望發展虛擬現實，這可能是未來的娛樂形式。我們把那個地方叫做電影院嗎？或許。但它可能是不同的名稱。

So the gadgets is still upon the innovator of the product industry to come out. But I think looking at our customers, there are tons of innovators that are thinking come out new products to becoming a next smartphone. But they produce their design continuously. Let's see how it will -- that will pan out to be a particular gadget for a particular successful innovator.

因此，小工具仍然需要產品產業的創新者來推出。但我認為看看我們的客戶，有大量的創新者正在考慮推出新產品以成為下一代智慧型手機。但他們不斷地生產他們的設計。讓我們看看它會如何發展——它會成為某位成功創新者的特定產品。

Sorry, if I can just do one more quick one. When will 10-nanometer debut its revenues? As you said, it was 16-nanometer this quarter. I know you have tape outs coming out in 10-nanometer mid next year. Is that -- do we wait until 2017 before it's a few percentage of revenue or do we think it actually can contribute a few percent by the end of next -- 2016?

抱歉，如果我可以再快速做一個的話。10奈米甚麼時候能開始獲利？正如您所說，本季度是 16 奈米。我知道你們將在明年年中推出 10 奈米製程的流片。那是——我們是否要等到 2017 年才能貢獻幾個百分點的收入，或者我們是否認為它實際上可以在明年年底——2016 年——貢獻幾個百分點？

We will start production maybe the fourth quarter next year. But revenue we expect from year 2017 in the first quarter it will be --.

我們大概會在明年第四季開始生產。但我們預計 2017 年第一季的營收將為--。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

All right. Questions will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

好的。問題將由德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 提出。

Thank you. Could you give some color for 10-nanometer scaling versus 16-nanometer? 10-nanometer scaling.

謝謝。您能否對 10 奈米與 16 奈米的縮放進行一些說明？10奈米縮放。

Scaling. You mean compared to 16, density and so on.

縮放。您的意思是與 16、密度等等相比。

Yes, two points. Let me comment on that. 10-nanometer scaling we designed it very aggressively. Typical node to node scaling is -- if we talk about logic density, it's about 1.9 times scaling. I just showed you the number. The 10-nanometer we designed to 2.1X scaling from 16 FinFET plus.

是的，兩點。讓我對此作出評論。10奈米縮放，我們非常積極地設計它。典型的節點到節點擴展是——如果我們談論邏輯密度，它大約是 1.9 倍的擴展。我剛剛給你看了這個號碼。我們設計的 10 奈米製程從 16 FinFET 加到 2.1 倍縮小。

Second one is, as you mentioned, your 10-nanometer risk production should be Q1 next year or Q4. Okay. So after one year risk production so we should expect that you can enter mass production in 2017.

第二個是，正如您所提到的，您的 10 奈米風險生產應該在明年第一季或第四季。好的。因此，經過一年的風險生產，我們預計您可以在 2017 年進入大規模生產。

Yes.

是的。

So based on your R&D programs for your customer, do you think you can meet the customer scaling requirements in this moment?

那麼根據您為客戶制定的研發計劃，您認為目前能夠滿足客戶的擴展需求嗎？

Yes, we can. The tape out is imminent.

是的，我們可以。即將推出錄音版本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, follow up questions again coming from Citi's Roland Shu.

好的，接下來是花旗銀行的 Roland Shu 提出的問題。

Just one follow-up question for the depreciation. Lora said that depreciation based on TWD8b CapEx spending in this year, depreciation will be above 11% to 12% and you said 2016 will not be a very high number. You mean the depreciation or CapEx?

關於折舊，我只有一個後續問題。Lora 表示，根據今年 80 億新台幣的資本支出計算，折舊率將在 11% 至 12% 以上，而您說 2016 年的折舊率不會很高。您指的是折舊還是資本支出？

I said CapEx will be higher than TWD8b and depreciation year over year will not be a very big number compared to the changes of this year versus last year.

我說過，資本支出將高於 80 億新台幣，與今年和去年的變化相比，年比折舊額不會是一個很大的數字。

Okay. So this low -- less spending, depreciation and also the macro uncertainty this year and next year. So are you still holding your long-term financial goal for PBT to grow more than 10% for the next five years? Does this goal still hold?

好的。因此，今年和明年的支出減少、折舊以及宏觀不確定性都較低。那麼，您是否仍堅持自己的長期財務目標，也就是未來五年內稅前獲利成長率超過 10%？這個目標還成立嗎？

10% is a good goal.

10%是一個很好的目標。

Yes. But I think previously you talked about this on your long-term goal.

是的。但我認為您之前已經談過您的長期目標了。

It's long term. I'm talking about five-year goal, 10%.

這是長期的。我說的是五年目標，10%。

So it still holds.

因此它仍然成立。

This goal still holds, but we need to work on it.

這個目標仍然有效，但我們需要努力。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

All right. So there is also a follow-up question from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

好的。摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu 也提出了後續問題。

Hi. Just two very quick follow-ups. One is, I think Dr. Wei talked about the second generation InFO that's under development, second generation InFO. Is that still targeted for the mobile processors or is it for new applications?

你好。只需兩個非常快速的後續問題。一是，我認為魏博士談到了正在開發的第二代 InFO，第二代 InFO。它仍然針對行動處理器還是針對新的應用程式？

Probably it will be adopted by the mobile processor first and then applied to all other applications. We are working with many customers right now. So in fact I cannot really tell you which one will be the first one to use it.

它可能首先被行動處理器採用，然後應用於所有其他應用程式。我們目前正在與許多客戶合作。所以事實上我無法真正告訴你哪一個會第一個使用它。

Secondly, can you give us update on EUV. There seems to be some talks recently that you may be exploring other options besides EUV?

其次，您能否向我們介紹 EUV 的最新進展。最近似乎有一些討論說您可能正在探索 EUV 之外的其他選擇？

Okay, let me comment on EUV. In the past three months, we see quite encouraging progress of EUV development and we work on our 3300 tools from ASML and to improve their source chamber and the targets and very good progress.

好的，讓我評論一下 EUV。在過去的三個月中，我們看到了 EUV 開發相當令人鼓舞的進展，我們致力於改進 ASML 的 3300 種工具，並改進其源室和目標，取得了非常好的進展。

Therefore we have agreed to go along -- go further to moving the 3350 tools. And that tool has made also major modifications and we plan to move that in, in the January next year, so that to catch up. Not only accelerate development, but also catch up on the 5-nanometer development program.

因此，我們同意繼續前進——進一步推動 3350 工具的發展。該工具也做出了重大修改，我們計劃在明年 1 月將其引入，以便趕上進度。不僅加速發展，也趕上5奈米發展計畫。

Follow-up questions from JPMorgan's Gokul.

摩根大通的 Gokul 提出了後續問題。

Thanks. Just one follow-up question. Dr. Liu mentioned that the fabless, system fabless companies, the new breed of companies are becoming bigger and bigger. Could you talk a little bit about what kind of customers are these? Currently obviously there are a couple of them which are really big and primarily in the mobile space. Are we seeing expansion of these companies towards other areas as well, maybe datacenter and that kind of areas as well?

謝謝。僅一個後續問題。劉博士提到，無晶圓廠、系統無晶圓廠公司，這些新創公司的規模越來越大。能否稍微談談這些客戶是什麼樣的呢？目前顯然有幾個規模非常大並且主要在移動領域。我們是否也看到這些公司向其他領域的擴張，也許是資料中心和類似的領域？

I cannot name the company's name for you, but let me share with you the thoughts. Actually this phenomenon is not new. Today of course, the smartphone you refer to mobile space, a lot of system companies does come out and create a new momentum for the demand market. In other areas like game for example. And it's produced by the system companies and they will -- we will see other areas for the virtual reality for example.

我無法透露這家公司的名字，但請容許我與您分享我的想法。事實上，這種現象並不新鮮。當然，今天，您所指的行動領域的智慧型手機，確實有很多系統公司出現，為需求市場創造了新的動力。例如在其他領域，如遊戲。它是由系統公司生產的，他們將——例如，我們將看到虛擬實境的其他領域。

Some of that probably will be driven by the system companies. And cars for example, the machine learning, that probably will also be driven by fabless and system company together. So this is a -- we see there's a definitive trend that system development -- developers could not find the standard product on the market, therefore they evolve in the design to optimize their system hardware and software to create more innovative products. And that we see and that's really encouraging is where the new players of innovation in the semiconductor industry emerges.

其中一些可能將由系統公司推動。以汽車為例，機器學習也可能將由無晶圓廠和系統公司共同推動。所以這是一個——我們看到系統開發的一個明確趨勢——開發人員無法在市場上找到標準產品，因此他們在設計上不斷改進，以優化他們的系統硬體和軟體，從而創造出更具創新性的產品。我們看到，真正令人鼓舞的是半導體產業創新新勢力的湧現。

I think it's about time that we should end this quarter's conference call and thank you for coming over for today's conference. Please be advised the replay will be available in three hours from now, transcripts 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

我想我們應該結束本季的電話會議了，感謝您參加今天的會議。請注意，重播將在三小時後提供，文字記錄將在 24 小時後提供，兩者均可透過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today. We hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye and have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。