台積電 ADR (TSM) 2015 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's second quarter 2015 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2015 年第二季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the second quarter, followed by our guidance for the third quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對第三季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's two co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, and TSMC's CFO Lora Ho will jointly provide our key messages.

之後，台積電的兩位聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei 和台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

After that, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang, will host the Q&A session.

之後，台積電董事長張忠謀博士將主持問答環節。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statement.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor Notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台交給台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以獲得運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to join us today.

歡迎今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter, followed by the guidance for the third quarter.

我的演講將從第二季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第三季度的指導。

So now let me summarize our second quarter financial performance.

所以現在讓我總結一下我們第二季度的財務表現。

In the second quarter, we have achieved TWD205b in revenue, 48.5% gross margin, 37.5% operating margin, and TWD3.06 in EPS, which were all within our guidance range.

第二季度，我們實現了TWD205b的收入、48.5%的毛利率、37.5%的營業利潤率和TWD3.06的EPS，這些都在我們的指導範圍內。

On a year-over-year basis, our revenue increased 12.2%, net income and EPS both increased 33% versus the last year same quarter.

與去年同期相比，我們的收入增長了 12.2%，淨收入和每股收益都比去年同期增長了 33%。

On a sequential basis, our revenue decreased by 7.5% due to customers' cautious inventory management and the less favorable exchange rate.

由於客戶謹慎的庫存管理和不利的匯率，我們的收入環比下降了 7.5%。

However, we were able to largely offset the negative impacts with our continuous cost improvement efforts.

但是，我們能夠通過持續的成本改進努力在很大程度上抵消了負面影響。

Our gross margin decreased slightly to 48.5%.

我們的毛利率略微下降至 48.5%。

For the non-operating items, we have reported a gain of TWD21b.

對於非經營性項目，我們報告了 TWD21b 的收益。

This significant one-time gain mainly came from two transactions.

這一顯著的一次性收益主要來自兩筆交易。

First, the ASML share disposal, we recognized TWD17.6b in the second quarter, which contributed to TWD0.60 to our EPS.

首先，ASML 股份出售，我們在第二季度確認了 TWD17.6b，這為我們的 EPS 貢獻了 TWD0.60。

Also we sold 5% of Vanguard shares, with a gain of TWD2.3b, which contributed to TWD0.08 of the second quarter EPS.

此外，我們出售了 5% 的 Vanguard 股份，獲得了 TWD2.3b 的收益，這導致第二季度每股收益為 TWD0.08。

The share disposal does not change our strategic relationship with ASML and Vanguard.

股份出售不會改變我們與 ASML 和 Vanguard 的戰略關係。

We remain to be the largest shareholder of Vanguard, own 28%.

我們仍然是 Vanguard 的第一大股東，擁有 28% 的股份。

You may noticed we incurred higher tax rate in the second quarter.

您可能注意到我們在第二季度產生了更高的稅率。

The tax expense went up to 24% in the second quarter as we accrued 10% retained earnings.

由於我們累積了 10% 的留存收益，第二季度的稅收支出上升了 24%。

We expect the 2015 full-year tax rate will be about 14%

我們預計2015年全年稅率將在14%左右

Now, let's take a look at the revenue by application.

現在，讓我們來看看按應用劃分的收入。

During the second quarter, all major segments showed declines.

第二季度，所有主要板塊均出現下滑。

Communication, computer, consumer, and industrial standards declined 3%, 24%, 21% and 1%, respectively.

通信、計算機、消費和工業標準分別下降了 3%、24%、21% 和 1%。

In terms of revenue by technology, revenue contribution from 20 nanometer went up to 20% from 16% in the first quarter, while 28 nanometer contributed 27% of our wafer revenue this quarter.

在技術收入方面，20 納米的收入貢獻從第一季度的 16% 上升到 20%，而 28 納米在本季度貢獻了我們晶圓收入的 27%。

Accordingly, these two technologies, 20 nanometer and 28 nanometer, represented 47% of our second quarter wafer revenue, increased from the 46% from the first quarter.

因此，20 納米和 28 納米這兩種技術占我們第二季度晶圓收入的 47%，高於第一季度的 46%。

Moving to balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

On the asset side, cash and marketable securities increased TWD32b to reach TWD550b at the end of the second quarter.

在資產方面，現金和有價證券在第二季度末增加了 TWD32b 至 TWD550b。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased TWD122b, which was due to the accrual of TWD117b for cash dividend.

在負債方面，流動負債增加TWD122b，這是由於現金股息的應計TWD117b。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained flat at 44 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數持平於 44 天。

Days of inventory increased by 5 days to 62 days as we pre-build certain wafers in anticipation of the capacity conversion from 20 nanometer to 16 nanometer.

庫存天數增加了 5 天，達到 62 天，因為我們預建了某些晶圓以預期產能從 20 納米到 16 納米的轉換。

In addition, higher raw material and longer production cycle time for leading nodes also increased the DOI a bit.

此外，領先節點更高的原材料和更長的生產週期也使 DOI 有所增加。

Lastly, I would like to make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

最後，我想對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the second quarter we generated TWD111b cash from operations and invested TWD54b in capital expenditure.

在第二季度，我們從運營中產生了 TWD111b 現金，並將 TWD54b 投資於資本支出。

Additionally, we received TWD39b from disposal of ASML shares and about TWD4b from the sell-down of 5% Vanguard shares.

此外，我們從出售 ASML 股票中獲得了 39 新台幣，並從出售 5% 的 Vanguard 股票中獲得了約 4 新台幣。

On financial -- financing cash flow, we repaid TWD13b for short-term debt.

在財務——融資現金流方面，我們償還了 TWD13b 的短期債務。

As a result, our cash balance reached TWD529b at the end of the second quarter.

結果，我們的現金餘額在第二季度末達到了TWD529b。

The above are my comments on the second quarter financial performance.

以上是我對第二季度財務表現的評論。

Now let me turn to the third-quarter outlook.

現在讓我談談第三季度的展望。

Due to the end-demand recovery is not as strong as we expected earlier, customer continue to remain cautious in inventory management.

由於終端需求復蘇不如我們早先預期的那麼強勁，客戶在庫存管理上繼續保持謹慎。

Combining these factors with customers' production -- product transition, demand for our third quarter is expected to recover only modestly.

將這些因素與客戶的生產——產品轉型相結合，我們第三季度的需求預計只會適度恢復。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD31, we expect third quarter revenue to be between TWD207b and TWD210b, translate into 1% to 2% sequential growth; gross profit margin to be between 47% and 49%; and operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌新台幣 31 的匯率假設，我們預計第三季度收入將介於新台幣 207b 和新台幣 210b 之間，轉化為 1% 至 2% 的環比增長；毛利率在 47% 至 49% 之間；營業利潤率在 36.5% 至 38.5% 之間。

As the remaining 20% ASML shares will be sold in the second half, we expect to recognize additional TWD4b disposal gain in the second half, which will translate into TWD0.12 and TWD0.01 EPS contribution to the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively.

由於剩餘 20% 的 ASML 股份將在下半年出售，我們預計下半年將確認額外的 TWD4b 出售收益，這將分別轉化為 TWD0.12 和 TWD0.01 對第三季度和第四季度的每股收益貢獻.

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to co-CEO Mark Liu for his comments.

讓我把講台轉給聯合首席執行官 Mark Liu 發表評論。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I'd like to deliver the several key message to you.

我想向您傳遞幾個關鍵信息。

The first, I will cover the near-term demand and supply chain inventory.

首先，我將介紹近期的需求和供應鏈庫存。

Lora reported our second-quarter results were in line with guidance made in our last investor meeting, which shows a 12.2% year-to-year revenue growth.

Lora 報告稱，我們的第二季度業績與我們上次投資者會議上的指引一致，該指引顯示收入同比增長 12.2%。

In the April investor conference, we have also noted that supply chain inventory was quite high at the end of first quarter, but it was expected to be brought down to a seasonal level at the end of Q2.

在四月份的投資者大會上，我們也注意到一季度末供應鏈庫存相當高，但預計二季度末將降至季節性水平。

However, during the second quarter, Q2, we saw demand for smartphones became weaker than we expected, due to slower demand in emerging markets and in China for mid and low-end smartphones.

然而，由於新興市場和中國對中低端智能手機的需求放緩，我們看到第二季度（Q2）對智能手機的需求比我們預期的要弱。

This weaker demand is partly due to a strong US dollar to emerging market currencies and partly due to the regional economic conditions.

需求疲軟的部分原因是美元對新興市場貨幣走強，部分原因是區域經濟狀況。

As a result, the excess inventory in the supply chain has only been digested about half at the end of second quarter.

如此一來，供應鏈中的過剩庫存到二季度末才消化了一半左右。

The recent macro economy uncertainties in many parts of the world has further dampened supply chain's confidence in end-market demand and has caused customers to become even more cautious in managing their inventory.

近期全球多地宏觀經濟的不確定性進一步削弱了供應鏈對終端市場需求的信心，導致客戶在管理庫存時更加謹慎。

Slow demand in emerging markets and in China, more cautious inventory management by our customers, and macroeconomic uncertainties in many parts of the world -- those three reasons are behind our modest growth outlook in the third quarter.

新興市場和中國的需求放緩、我們客戶的庫存管理更加謹慎，以及世界許多地區的宏觀經濟不確定性——這三個原因是我們第三季度增長前景溫和的背後原因。

That being said, we expect our customers' end-market demand will improve in the second half from the first half.

話雖如此，我們預計下半年客戶的終端市場需求將比上半年有所改善。

Growth is expected to come from industrial and automotive segments, as well as from new iPhone launches and several launches of Android-based high-end phones.

預計增長將來自工業和汽車領域，以及新 iPhone 的發布和幾款基於 Android 的高端手機的發布。

In addition, the continuing 4G migration in China and the demand recovery in emerging markets will further support the growth outlook of second half this year.

此外，中國持續的 4G 遷移和新興市場的需求復蘇將進一步支持今年下半年的增長前景。

But as the demand outlook has changed, we update our 2015 full-year growth forecast as follows.

但隨著需求前景發生變化，我們將 2015 年全年增長預測更新如下。

Semiconductor growth revised from 4% to 3%.

半導體增長從 4% 修正為 3%。

Foundry growth from 10% to 6%.

代工增長從 10% 到 6%。

For TSMC, we are still confident to outperform the foundry segment and still target double-digit growth rate this year.

對於台積電，我們仍然有信心跑贏代工業務，並仍以今年兩位數的增長率為目標。

Now the message on TSMC market segment share.

現在關於台積電細分市場份額的消息。

Thanks to our strong leadership in advanced technologies, TSMC has been able to gain foundry market segment shares in recent years.

由於我們在先進技術方面的強大領導地位，台積電近年來已經能夠獲得代工市場份額。

This year our market share will again be well-supported by the expansion of our advanced notes, namely 16 nanometer, 20 nanometer and 28 nanometer.

今年我們的市場份額將再次得到我們先進票據（即 16 納米、20 納米和 28 納米）擴展的良好支持。

For 16 nanometer, we are starting our volume shipment as we speak.

對於 16 納米，我們正在開始批量發貨。

The ramping of our 16 nanometer will be very steep, even steeper than our 20 nanometer.

我們的 16 納米的斜坡將非常陡峭，甚至比我們的 20 納米還要陡峭。

Ramping profile, similar ramping profile at similar early stage.

斜坡曲線，類似早期階段的類似斜坡曲線。

Looking out to the future, with many more customers joining our 16 nanometer production, we are confident that we will achieve a far majority foundry share in 16 nanometer in 2016 and beyond.

展望未來，隨著更多客戶加入我們的 16 納米生產，我們有信心在 2016 年及以後實現 16 納米的絕大多數代工份額。

For 20 nanometer, we remain the only foundry capable of volume supply in the second year of its ramp-up.

對於 20 納米，我們仍然是唯一一家能夠在第二年量產的代工廠。

For 28 nanometer, we continue to strengthen our technology offerings.

對於 28 納米，我們將繼續加強我們的技術產品。

Following our 28LP, 28HPL, 28HPM, we have 28LPRF, 28HPC and 28HPC+.

在我們的 28LP、28HPL、28HPM 之後，我們有 28LPRF、28HPC 和 28HPC+。

Those new offerings will enable us to protect our 28 nanometer foundry segment share.

這些新產品將使我們能夠保護我們在 28 納米晶圓代工領域的份額。

With all the above, we continue to gain market segment share in 2015.

綜上所述，我們在 2015 年繼續獲得細分市場份額。

Lastly, I'd like to have some comments, key messages on advanced technology development on 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer.

最後，我想就 10 納米和 7 納米的先進技術發展發表一些評論和關鍵信息。

The recent progress of our 10 nanometer technology development is very encouraging and on track with our plan.

我們最近在 10 納米技術開發方面取得的進展非常令人鼓舞，並且與我們的計劃步入正軌。

Technology risk start qualification is targeted at the end of this year, followed by many customers' product qualifications.

技術風險啟動資質以今年年底為目標，緊隨其後的是眾多客戶的產品資質。

Our volume production is planned to start from the end of 2016.

我們計劃從 2016 年底開始量產。

Our 10-nanometer technology is designed with excellent transistor performance spec and very aggressive chip-scaling factors.

我們的 10 納米技術設計具有出色的晶體管性能規格和非常激進的芯片縮放係數。

Compared with TSMC's 16 FinFET+, our 10-nanometer features has more than 15% speed gain at the same total power, or more than 35% power reduction at the same speed, and with gate density of 2.2 times of that of 16 FinFET+.

與台積電的 16 FinFET+ 相比，我們的 10 納米特性在相同總功率下具有超過 15% 的速度增益，或在相同速度下功率降低超過 35%，並且柵極密度是 16 FinFET+ 的 2.2 倍。

Many of our first-wave technology adopters have signed up for tape-outs with our 10 nanometer.

我們的許多第一波技術採用者已經簽約使用我們的 10 納米流片。

So far, planned tape-outs have already include mobile application processors, network processors, and high-performance computing segments.

到目前為止，計劃中的流片已經包括移動應用處理器、網絡處理器和高性能計算領域。

The development activity on our 7 nanometer is also ongoing with full steam.

我們 7 納米的開發活動也在如火如荼地進行中。

We have a parallel team working on that program.

我們有一個平行的團隊致力於該計劃。

We target 7-nanometer technology qualification in the first quarter 2017, only five quarters after 10 nanometer.

我們的目標是在 2017 年第一季度獲得 7 納米技術認證，距離 10 納米只有五個季度。

With further transistor speed enhancement and chip scaling from 10 nanometer, our customer can plan their tape-outs using the latest and the greatest technology available at the time when they launch their most competitive products.

隨著晶體管速度的進一步提高和 10 納米的芯片尺寸縮小，我們的客戶可以在他們推出最具競爭力的產品時使用最新和最先進的技術來規劃他們的流片。

For 7 nanometer, similar to our 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer relationship, we are developing 7 nanometer to be able to leverage the process tool compatibility and maturity from 10-nanometer volume production.

對於 7 納米，類似於我們的 20 納米和 16 納米關係，我們正在開發 7 納米，以便能夠利用 10 納米批量生產的工藝工具兼容性和成熟度。

Above is my message.

以上是我的留言。

Now I turn the podium to C.C.

現在我把講台轉到 C.C.

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

I will update the technology improvement volume manufacturing and competitiveness on three technology nodes, followed by an InFO business update.

我將更新三個技術節點上的技術改進量製造和競爭力，然後是 InFO 業務更新。

First, on 28 nanometer, the demand outlook for TSMC's 28 nanometer remains strong.

首先，在 28 納米方面，台積電 28 納米的需求前景依然強勁。

We continue to enhance our 28-nanometer technology, just like Mark just mentioned, by improving the performance.

就像 Mark 剛才提到的那樣，我們通過提高性能來繼續增強我們的 28 納米技術。

In addition to the 28LP, 28HPM, we have introduced 28HPC last year to enable our customers' conversion to 64-bit CPU for mid- to low-end market.

除了 28LP、28HPM，我們去年還推出了 28HPC，使我們的客戶能夠轉換為中低端市場的 64 位 CPU。

Our 28HPC+ introduced this year can enable our customers to go after the market with multi-core which is from 4 to 8 to 10 and advanced LTE such as LTE Categories 4 to 6.

我們今年推出的 28HPC+ 可以讓我們的客戶以 4 到 8 到 10 的多核和先進的 LTE（例如 LTE 類別 4 到 6）來追趕市場。

In addition to addressing the demand for the mid to low-end smartphone market, we have already seen demand for our 28-nanometer transceiver RF and flash controller begin increasing over time.

除了滿足中低端智能手機市場的需求外，我們已經看到對我們的 28 納米收發器射頻和閃存控制器的需求隨著時間的推移開始增加。

Based on tape-out activities, we also anticipate customer in Wi-Fi, wearable, digital TV, set-top box, and image signal processor, will also start ramping next year using our 28 nanometer.

根據流片活動，我們還預計 Wi-Fi、可穿戴設備、數字電視、機頂盒和圖像信號處理器的客戶明年也將開始使用我們的 28 納米技術。

Ever since we introduced 28HPC and 28HPC+, we are met with customers' enthusiastic adoption.

自從我們推出 28HPC 和 28HPC+ 以來，我們得到了客戶的熱烈採用。

Almost all the new tape-outs are adopting either of these two processes.

幾乎所有新的流片都採用這兩種工藝中的任何一種。

And the number of new tape-outs continue to increase and reaching a record level.

並且新的流片數量繼續增加並達到創紀錄的水平。

Our 28 nanometer billing utilization rate was in the high-80s in second quarter, which is due to customers' inventory management.

我們的 28 納米計費利用率在第二季度處於 80 年代的高位，這是由於客戶的庫存管理。

We expect this billing utilization to be recovered to above 90% in third quarter, the same as we mentioned in our last conference.

我們預計該計費利用率將在第三季度恢復到 90% 以上，與我們在上次會議中提到的相同。

We intend to keep our 28-nanometer utilization rate very high by providing the best and useful technology such as our 28HPC and 28HPC+ to our customers so that their new products will grow nicely in the market, and that will translate to increasing demand and higher loading rate for us.

我們打算通過向我們的客戶提供最好和有用的技術（例如我們的 28HPC 和 28HPC+）來保持我們的 28 納米利用率非常高，以便他們的新產品在市場上很好地增長，這將轉化為不斷增長的需求和更高的負載為我們評分。

Meanwhile, after having manufactured 28 nanometer for more than five years, we can also use our learning curve or cost advantage to compete with good profit margins.

同時，在製造 28 納米超過 5 年之後，我們也可以利用我們的學習曲線或成本優勢與良好的利潤率競爭。

To summarize, we will keep our utilization rate high and we will use our technology and our cost advantage to compete effectively for 28 nanometer business.

總而言之，我們將保持高利用率，並利用我們的技術和成本優勢有效競爭 28 納米業務。

Next, 20 nanometer.

接下來，20納米。

Since we have begun ramping of 20 nanometer in the middle of last year, we have obtained the best progress in the reduction of defect density as compared to all previous nodes.

自去年年中我們開始加速 20 納米以來，與之前的所有節點相比，我們在降低缺陷密度方面取得了最好的進展。

We believe we will be able to leverage this record progress and enhance defect density reduction for our 16 nanometer.

我們相信，我們將能夠利用這一創紀錄的進展並提高 16 納米的缺陷密度降低。

The demand for our 20 nanometer this year is still good.

今年我們20納米的需求還是不錯的。

We expect our revenue from 20 nanometer will at least double the level we had last year.

我們預計 20 納米的收入將至少是去年的兩倍。

Since a majority of 20-nanometer business will migrate to 16 FinFET next year, we expect our 20-nanometer business will be lower than this year.

由於明年大部分 20 納米業務將遷移到 16 FinFET，我們預計我們的 20 納米業務將低於今年。

However, we still expect 20 nanometer to be a long-lived node.

但是，我們仍然預計 20 納米將是一個長壽命的節點。

We are converting right now part of 20-nanometer capacity into 16 FinFET to prepare for the ramp of 16 FinFET.

我們現在正在將 20 納米容量的一部分轉換為 16 FinFET，為 16 FinFET 的升級做準備。

So I move to 16 FinFET update.

所以我轉向 16 FinFET 更新。

We have begun volume production of 16 FinFET in second quarter.

我們已經在第二季度開始量產 16 個 FinFET。

Shipment has started this month.

本月已開始發貨。

The high volume ramp in third quarter were mostly contributed to revenue in fourth quarter this year.

第三季度的高銷量增長主要是為今年第四季度的收入做出了貢獻。

Since 16 nanometer shares similar metal backend process with 20 nanometer, our 16 FinFET can benefit a lot from 20-nanometer's learning.

由於 16 納米與 20 納米共享類似的金屬後端工藝，我們的 16 FinFET 可以從 20 納米的學習中受益匪淺。

We have already shipped more than 0.5m wafer 20 SoC by now, so our 16 nanometer's yield and defect density has been excellent.

到目前為止，我們已經出貨了超過 0.5m 的晶圓 20 SoC，因此我們的 16 納米的良率和缺陷密度非常出色。

And in fact, our 16 FinFET has set a new record for progresses made in the defect density reduction.

事實上，我們的 16 FinFET 在降低缺陷密度方面取得了新的進展。

As for device performance, we believe our 16 FinFET plus has the best transistor performance among all foundries.

至於器件性能，我們相信我們的 16 FinFET plus 擁有所有代工廠中最好的晶體管性能。

For low-power application, we have been developing 16FFC, which will be cost effective and will be important for future of IoT applications as well.

對於低功耗應用，我們一直在開發 16FFC，這將具有成本效益，並且對物聯網應用的未來也很重要。

Last, let me update on InFO business.

最後，讓我更新一下 InFO 業務。

The schedule to ramp up InFO in second quarter next year remains unchanged.

明年第二季度增加 InFO 的時間表保持不變。

We have already begun moving manufacturing equipment into our new facility in Longtan which is close to be completed now.

我們已經開始將製造設備搬入我們位於龍潭的新工廠，該工廠現已接近完工。

We are also engaging with major customer for volume production in the second half next year.

我們還在與主要客戶進行明年下半年的批量生產。

Our expectation of InFO contributing more than $100m quarterly by 4Q next year remains unchanged.

我們對 InFO 到明年第四季度每季度貢獻超過 1 億美元的預期保持不變。

TSMC's InFO technology does not need package substrate and also provides a high density interconnect.

台積電的 InFO 技術不需要封裝基板，還提供高密度互連。

This allows our solution to have benefit in form factor, that is, package thickness and in electrical performance.

這使我們的解決方案在外形尺寸（即封裝厚度和電氣性能）方面具有優勢。

We continue to work with major customer on developing the next-generation InFO for further improvement and device performance and package thickness.

我們將繼續與主要客戶合作開發下一代 InFO，以進一步改進設備性能和封裝厚度。

I thank you for your attention.

我感謝您的關注。

Now, turn the podium to Lora.

現在，將講台轉向勞拉。

So I will make comments on structural profitability, CapEx and the long-term financial objectives.

因此，我將對結構性盈利能力、資本支出和長期財務目標發表評論。

Let me start with structural profitability.

讓我從結構性盈利能力開始。

We employ two key indices to monitor our structural profitability.

我們採用兩個關鍵指標來監控我們的結構盈利能力。

The first one is standard gross margin, referred to SGM, meaning the gross margin at a given level of utilization.

第一個是標準毛利率，簡稱SGM，意思是在給定利用率水平下的毛利率。

The second one is standard utilization, the utilization level that we try to achieve or exceed.

第二個是標準利用率，我們試圖達到或超過的利用率水平。

Over the past five years we have seen consistent improvement in SGM while our utilization has also been at consistently high level.

在過去五年中，我們看到 SGM 持續改善，而我們的利用率也一直處於高水平。

We plan to maintain or improve our structural profitability by maintaining or improving SGM and maintaining high utilization.

我們計劃通過維持或改善 SGM 和維持高利用率來維持或改善我們的結構盈利能力。

For advanced technologies, we are careful in peak capacity planning.

對於先進的技術，我們在峰值容量規劃方面非常謹慎。

For mature mainstream technologies, we are increasing our capabilities in various specialty technologies to ensure all the legacy capacity can be fully utilized.

對於成熟的主流技術，我們正在增加各種專業技術的能力，以確保能夠充分利用所有遺留能力。

After three years of operating at a high capital intensity level, about 50% CapEx intensity during the period from 2011 to 2013, our CapEx to sales has come down to about 40% last year in 2014 and is expected to be at a similar level this year.

經過三年的高資本密集度運營（2011 年至 2013 年期間資本支出密集度約為 50%），我們的資本支出佔銷售額的比例在 2014 年已降至去年的 40% 左右，預計將與本年度相近的水平年。

Going forward, we estimate our capital intensity ratio will be at about mid-30s level for the next few years.

展望未來，我們估計未來幾年我們的資本密集度將在 30 年代中期左右。

Regarding CapEx, there may be some adjustments but we are evaluating the capacity conversion along with better productivity improvements.

關於資本支出，可能會有一些調整，但我們正在評估產能轉換以及更好的生產力改進。

We are also increasing investment in specialty technologies.

我們還在增加對專業技術的投資。

So for now, we keep our CapEx budget unchanged.

因此，目前，我們保持資本支出預算不變。

Let me move into long-term financial objectives.

讓我談談長期財務目標。

Over the five-year target, meaning from 2015 to 2019, the five-year target calls for a compound annual growth rate of 10% for both revenue and net income and a bigger or equal 20% in ROE.

五年目標，即從2015年到2019年，五年目標要求收入和淨利潤的複合年增長率為10%，ROE大於或等於20%。

The long-term growth rate of the overall semiconductor industry is expected to be growth about 4% to 6%, at a single digit -- mid-single-digit level.

整個半導體行業的長期增長率預計在4%到6%左右，處於個位數——中個位數的水平。

Foundry is expected to continue to outgrow the overall semiconductor market by a few points.

Foundry 預計將繼續超過整個半導體市場幾個點。

We plan to achieve the 10% compound annual growth rate in revenue by carefully positioning ourselves with the right technology and build appropriate capacity to capture the business.

我們計劃通過用正確的技術仔細定位自己並建立適當的能力來獲取業務，從而實現 10% 的收入複合年增長率。

With the right technologies and sufficient capacity, TSMC is well-positioned to continue gaining market segment share in the foundry segment.

憑藉正確的技術和充足的產能，台積電處於有利地位，可以繼續在代工領域獲得市場份額。

Our current five-year plan number is very close to the 10% revenue growth target.

我們目前的五年計劃數字非常接近 10% 的收入增長目標。

We believe we will grow double digit each year for the year 2015 and 2016, and we will continue to work on the 2017 to 2019 growth ahead of time.

我們相信我們將在 2015 年和 2016 年以每年兩位數的速度增長，並且我們將繼續提前實現 2017 年至 2019 年的增長。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask their questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制在兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提出他們的問題。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate that to English before our management answers your questions.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Conference Instructions.)

（會議說明。）

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the floor.

我們的第一個問題來自地板。

It will be Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Dan Heyler.

它將是美銀美林的丹·海勒。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

Thanks, Elizabeth.

謝謝，伊麗莎白。

Gentlemen, good to see you again.

先生們，很高興再次見到你們。

Congratulations on the 10 nanometer on progress by the way.

順便祝賀一下10納米的進步。

Relative to your competitors, that's good news.

相對於您的競爭對手，這是個好消息。

A couple of things.

有幾件事。

First, on -- I wanted to address growth for 2016.

首先，關於 - 我想解決 2016 年的增長問題。

You did talk about the potential to grow over 10% next year.

您確實談到了明年增長超過 10% 的潛力。

In light of the slowing smartphone market, if it was, say, a 5% unit growth for smartphone units per se, what type of semiconductor growth would you anticipate for the overall industry, and then secondly, for TSMC within mobile?

鑑於智能手機市場放緩，如果智能手機本身的單位增長 5%，您預計整個行業的半導體增長是什麼類型，其次是台積電在移動領域的增長？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Slow 2016 growth, what is the driver is the other question?

2016 年增長緩慢，另一個問題是什麼驅動因素？

Yes, with 5% growth in smartphones, what kind of growth can we expect from TSMC's mobile-related semiconductor --

是的，智能手機增長5%，台積電的移動相關半導體可以期待什麼樣的增長——

You're talking about 2016, is that right?

你說的是2016年，對嗎？

Well, first, we expect some market share gain, as C.C. had said and as I said a year ago, we expect that 16-nanometer market share will be much greater than our competitors, our next competitors.

好吧，首先，我們預計市場份額會有所增長，因為 C.C.正如我一年前所說，我們預計 16 納米的市場份額將遠遠大於我們的競爭對手，我們的下一個競爭對手。

And overall, we also see other areas where we will be expanding market share.

總體而言，我們還看到了我們將擴大市場份額的其他領域。

For instance, in the IoT area where immature, more or less advanced technologies are used, some of our customers are doing very well.

例如，在使用不成熟、或多或少先進技術的物聯網領域，我們的一些客戶做得很好。

So I expect gains in market share.

所以我預計市場份額會增加。

And I also expect that the foundry segment of the semiconductor market will do better next year than this year.

而且我也預計明年半導體市場的代工部分會比今年做得更好。

They did very well last year and so did we of course.

去年他們做得很好，我們當然也做得很好。

We grew 25% last year.

去年我們增長了 25%。

And we had a record fourth quarter last year.

我們去年第四季度創紀錄。

And our customers, for the most part, did very well last year also.

我們的客戶，在大多數情況下，去年也做得很好。

And at the end of last year, it was, I think, last year, Christmas last year, was a Merry Christmas for a lot of people, and the expectations for this year were very high at that time.

去年年底，我想，去年，去年的聖誕節，對很多人來說是一個快樂的聖誕節，當時對今年的期望非常高。

And, however, the big growth -- part of the big growth that we had last year went into supply chain inventory.

然而，巨大的增長——我們去年大幅增長的一部分進入了供應鏈庫存。

And the supply chain inventory at the end of last year was indeed very high.

而且去年底的供應鏈庫存確實很高。

And now this year, with a number of things happening that Mark already mentioned, the outlook for this year has continued to deteriorate.

而現在，隨著馬克已經提到的許多事情的發生，今年的前景繼續惡化。

And so in retrospect we should average last year's growth rate with this year's growth rate.

所以回想起來，我們應該用今年的增長率平均去年的增長率。

Last year we grew 25%, and this year we're still looking for double-digit but certainly it's considerably lower than last year's 25%, this year.

去年我們增長了 25%，今年我們仍在尋找兩位數，但肯定比去年的 25% 低得多，今年。

And so I do expect next year's organic growth rate, if you will, to be a little better than this year.

所以我確實預計明年的有機增長率會比今年好一點。

And in addition to that, as I said, we expect market share gain.

除此之外，正如我所說，我們預計市場份額會增加。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So if I hear you correctly, mobile could certainly achieve at least double-digit growth.

所以如果我沒聽錯的話，移動端肯定能實現至少兩位數的增長。

Mobile.

移動的。

Mobile and smartphones?

手機和智能手機？

Correct.

正確的。

So if you're growing at double-digit, would we see your -- the mobile part of your business grow, say, can it do a high single digit -- high double-digit type of growth, or should we see kind of growth across all the (multiple speakers) for you?

因此，如果您以兩位數的速度增長，我們是否會看到您的 - 業務的移動部分增長，例如，它能否實現高個位數 - 高兩位數的增長，或者我們應該看到某種對您而言，所有（多位發言人）的增長？

Yes.

是的。

So, would we see more growth across all of your segments be a lot closer, say, in that high double-digit range?

那麼，我們是否會看到你們所有細分市場的增長更接近，例如，在兩位數的高位範圍內？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Correct.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the second question, kind of a sub-question to this growth line is, as you look at processors coming out today, 8-core, 10-core processors moving to 16 nanometer, Cortex 72 looks pretty much like a PC-level processor, I'm wondering what kind of computational opportunities are there for you to grow next year or as you look into the broader markets, with performance levels being as high as they are, we're now moving kind of out the smartphone era, much more into a compute capability, is that a growth opportunity --?

第二個問題，這個增長線的一個子問題是，當你看到今天出現的處理器時，8 核、10 核處理器轉向 16 納米，Cortex 72 看起來很像 PC 級處理器，我想知道你明年有什麼樣的計算機會可以增長，或者當你看到更廣闊的市場時，性能水平和它們一樣高，我們現在正在走出智能手機時代，很多更多地關注計算能力，這是一個增長機會嗎？

Higher performance -- higher performance computation.

更高的性能——更高性能的計算。

Mark, maybe you should answer the question.

馬克，也許你應該回答這個問題。

Yes, Dan.

是的，丹。

And indeed, the application processor of a smartphone is increased -- the complexity is keep increasing.

事實上，智能手機的應用處理器增加了——複雜性不斷增加。

And that has, still, that has to do with people -- user experience of the smartphone today.

這仍然與人有關——今天智能手機的用戶體驗。

I think he was talking about something more than -- beyond smartphone, yes.

我認為他談論的不僅僅是智能手機，是的。

I'm getting there.

我快到那裡了。

And therefore, the silicon content of high-end smartphone we think will keep increasing because of that.

因此，我們認為高端智能手機的矽含量將因此而不斷增加。

Now for IoT, I think it's a prelude of IoT application because IoT devices currently often as using the smartphone as a transmitter.

現在對於物聯網，我認為這是物聯網應用的前奏，因為物聯網設備目前經常使用智能手機作為發射器。

And -- but that computation world hasn't really flourished yet I think.

而且——但我認為計算世界還沒有真正繁榮起來。

That has to do with service and application associated with IoT.

這與與物聯網相關的服務和應用程序有關。

And that is a big market we see the IoT will bring us in the future.

這是我們看到物聯網將在未來帶給我們的一個大市場。

And so that hasn't -- this one is not yet for the computation for the IoT world.

所以這還沒有——這個還沒有用於物聯網世界的計算。

That's my perspective.

這就是我的觀點。

And that is growth momentum to come.

這就是即將到來的增長勢頭。

So IoT as a portion of TSMC business today, do you guys have a rough ballpark figure of how much is IoT related to your business today and how big can it be?

所以物聯網作為今天台積電業務的一部分，你們是否有一個粗略的數字，即物聯網與你今天的業務有多大關係，它有多大？

Relating maybe more just to the kind of the access point side of the equation.

可能更多地與等式的接入點類型有關。

I know the processor side is difficult to calculate.

我知道處理器方面很難計算。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think Dan has got his two nickels worth with our long answers.

我認為丹得到了他的兩分錢，我們的回答很長。

So let's go on with it.

所以讓我們繼續吧。

Oh I'm sorry (multiple speakers).

哦，對不起（多位發言者）。

Let me give the answer to you.

讓我給你答案。

We see our customers bringing the connectivity function on many devices.

我們看到我們的客戶在許多設備上帶來了連接功能。

So for us, the IoT portion is not specifically defined like other company would produce IoT product or services.

所以對我們來說，物聯網部分並沒有像其他公司生產物聯網產品或服務那樣具體定義。

So we see this trend will continue and proliferate in many, many different segments.

因此，我們看到這種趨勢將繼續並在許多不同的領域擴散。

So we see that part is keep increasing.

所以我們看到那部分在不斷增加。

But today it's hard to categorize a specific IoT among so many segments that we are doing today.

但是今天很難在我們今天做的這麼多細分市場中對一個特定的物聯網進行分類。

We just see the connectivity and the computation is increasing in many segments.

我們只是看到連接性和計算在許多方面都在增加。

Interesting, thank you.

有趣，謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Next we will have questions coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

接下來，我們將有來自德意志銀行 Michael Chou 的問題。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

My first question is since Intel is saying they will slow down the process migration to 2.5 years, the cadence actually would be longer than the previous node.

我的第一個問題是，由於英特爾表示他們會將工藝遷移速度減慢到 2.5 年，因此節奏實際上會比之前的節點更長。

So will that be the case for TSMC in 7-nanometer from 10 to 7?

那麼台積電從 10 到 7 的 7 納米會是這樣嗎？

Well, you are looking at it right now.

好吧，你現在正在看它。

What was the time between 16 and 10?

16點到10點之間是幾點？

Two years.

兩年。

And -- it was two years.

而且——那是兩年。

And the time between 10 and 7 is around one year.

而10點到7點之間的時間大約是一年。

So for those two generations for us anyway, it's three years.

所以對於我們這兩代人來說，這就是三年。

Now, well, Intel says it's two years.

現在，好吧，英特爾說它是兩年。

Well, maybe we could do it sooner but maybe Intel might do it later and we might do it later too.

好吧，也許我們可以早點做，但英特爾可能會晚點做，我們也可能會晚點做。

Two and half sounds right.

兩個半聽起來不錯。

Did you understand my answer?

你明白我的回答了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The second question is given that you should start mass production of 10 nanometer by the end of 2016, so your customers' 10-nanometer product may hit the market in Q2 2017.

第二個問題是你應該在 2016 年底開始量產 10 納米，所以你的客戶的 10 納米產品可能會在 2017 年第二季度上市。

Yes.

是的。

So you are trying to calculate -- triangulate the time when the customers' product will arrive at the marketplace using TSMC's 10 nanometer.

因此，您正在嘗試計算 - 使用 TSMC 的 10 納米技術對客戶產品到達市場的時間進行三角測量。

Can we answer that question?

我們能回答這個問題嗎？

You try to narrow down exactly the time.

你試圖準確地縮小時間。

But actually we ramp up 10 nanometer in the 4Q 2016 next year as Mark mentioned.

但實際上，正如 Mark 所說，我們會在明年 2016 年第四季度增加 10 納米。

But the real product shipment will be in 1Q 2017, yes.

但真正的產品出貨將在 2017 年第一季度，是的。

Exactly the new products into the market, I cannot comment.

究竟是新產品進入市場，我無法評論。

But since Intel say that their 10-nanometer platform will be in the second half 2017 so does that mean your 10-nanometer progress could be better than -- faster than Intel.

但既然英特爾表示他們的 10 納米平台將在 2017 年下半年推出，這是否意味著您的 10 納米進展可能會比英特爾更快。

Can we say that?

我們可以這麼說嗎？

I only say that our product 10 nanometer will be in the first quarter of year 2017.

我只說我們的產品 10 納米將在 2017 年第一季度。

All right.

好的。

Next we will have questions coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

接下來我們將有來自瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯的問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The first question I wanted to ask about the inventory correction.

我想問的第一個問題是關於庫存修正。

It's extended for two quarters.

它延長了兩個季度。

Now are you expecting as we go in the fourth quarter, potential for restocking where we traditionally go into a low season or do we wait until after Chinese New Year?

現在，隨著我們進入第四季度，您是否期待我們傳統上進入淡季的補貨潛力，還是等到農曆新年之後？

And then with 16-nanometer ramping up how much could that support fourth quarter being above seasonal?

然後隨著 16 納米的增加，這能在多大程度上支持第四季度高於季節性？

And also how do you see that 16-nanometer ramp in first half, if you expect to continue the steep ramp on 16 in the first half next year or it's more of a second half event?

還有你如何看待上半年的 16 納米斜坡，如果你希望明年上半年繼續在 16 納米的陡峭斜坡，或者這更像是下半年的事件？

Mark.

標記。

Well, the inventory picture is what you said correctly.

好吧，庫存圖片就是您所說的正確。

And for the 16-nanometer, it's all are new products.

而對於16納米來說，都是新產品。

So at this point we are ramping, but the inventory issue is not in the picture.

所以在這一點上我們正在增加，但庫存問題不在圖片中。

We just keep the production ramp and in the second half this year and getting to the first half of next year.

我們只是在今年下半年和明年上半年保持產量增長。

Now only as we know that the demand, the customer demand is very strong and that is different than the inventory level I was commenting about.

現在只有我們知道需求，客戶需求非常強勁，這與我評論的庫存水平不同。

There's no supply chain inventory of 16 nanometer yet.

目前還沒有 16 納米的供應鏈庫存。

There's two parts to it.

它有兩個部分。

The first part is the core business, the existing 20 and above, if you expect restocking in fourth quarter.

第一部分是核心業務，現有20個及以上，如果您預計在第四季度重新進貨。

And then for 16 if you expect there's still a steep ramp in fourth quarter and then also a steep ramp continuing in the first half.

然後是 16，如果您預計第四季度仍然有一個陡峭的斜坡，然後在上半年繼續有一個陡峭的斜坡。

I guess I was curious do you expect the core business to have restocking in the fourth quarter so that's above seasonal.

我想我很好奇你是否認為核心業務會在第四季度進行補貨，所以這高於季節性。

And then also do you expect 16 to have a steep ramp continue in the first half.

然後您是否還期望 16 在上半年繼續陡峭的斜坡。

We expect the core business will in -- still continue in the depletion mode until the end of this year.

我們預計核心業務將繼續處於枯竭模式，直到今年年底。

Now then coming to the first quarter, we might see a restocking.

現在到了第一季度，我們可能會看到補貨。

But, as you know, the first quarter is a seasonal weaker quarter.

但是，如您所知，第一季度是季節性較弱的季度。

So that two competition how that reflects on our demand is yet to be seen yet.

因此，這兩個競爭如何反映我們的需求還有待觀察。

So, Randy, I suppose you have another part of your question, which is with the fast, steep ramp of 16 nanometer in 4Q, will we still have a fast, steep ramp of 16 nanometer in 1Q next year.

所以，蘭迪，我想你的問題的另一部分是第四季度快速、陡峭的 16 納米斜坡，明年第一季度我們還會有一個快速、陡峭的 16 納米斜坡嗎？

That's your second part, right?

那是你的第二部分，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, good.

好的。

And if you could, the second question is on the CapEx.

如果可以的話，第二個問題是關於資本支出的。

You mentioned capital intensity coming down.

你提到資本密集度下降。

Was that a statement on next year so capital intensity reflects how we should look at 2016?

這是關於明年的聲明，所以資本密集度反映了我們應該如何看待 2016 年？

And so far you're under-spending CapEx this year, so I'm just curious how you're seeing the overall CapEx levels whether it's kind of tracking similar ballpark this year and next year.

到目前為止，您今年的資本支出支出不足，所以我只是好奇您如何看待整體資本支出水平，無論今年和明年是否會跟踪類似的情況。

And is there potential to actually start raising the dividend again next year if CapEx is not going up?

如果資本支出沒有上升，明年是否有可能再次開始提高股息？

Yes, I just said the capital intensity will come down to the mid-30 level for the coming few years.

是的，我剛才說了，未來幾年資本密集度將下降到 30 年左右的水平。

With that and with the 10% growth target that we are targeting for, we are confident we are able to generate increasing free cash flow from operations.

有了這個以及我們設定的 10% 的增長目標，我們相信我們能夠從運營中產生越來越多的自由現金流。

So we will consider dividend increase on a year-by-year basis when the time comes.

所以我們會在時機成熟時考慮逐年增加股息。

All right.

好的。

I think this is about time that we will take our next question from the call.

我認為現在是我們從電話會議中提出下一個問題的時候了。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請繼續與線路上的第一個呼叫者聯繫。

Donald Lu, Goldman Sachs.

唐納德·盧，高盛。

It's Donald Lu from Goldman Sachs, okay.

是高盛的唐納德·盧，好吧。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

My first question is on the computing opportunities.

我的第一個問題是關於計算機會的。

I think now TSMC seems to be narrowing the gap in the process technology and when should we see that the TSMC is really enter the notebook market?

我想現在台積電似乎在縮小製程技術的差距，什麼時候才能看到台積電真正進入筆記本市場呢？

And also what is preventing TSMC to ARM server or even TSMC to enter the notebook market in large volume?

又是什麼阻礙了台積電以ARM服務器甚至台積電大舉進入筆記本市場？

Is that software or more of hardware.

是軟件還是更多的硬件。

Elizabeth, you need to repeat the question.

伊麗莎白，你需要重複這個問題。

Donald, I have to tell you that we did not really get your voice very clearly in here.

唐納德，我必須告訴你，我們在這裡並沒有真正清楚地聽到你的聲音。

So I'm just going to repeat your question and correct me if I didn't hear you right.

因此，如果我沒聽錯，我將重複您的問題並糾正我。

Your question is what is TSMC's opportunities in computation segment.

您的問題是台積電在計算領域的機會是什麼。

Due to our ability to narrow the technology gap, when are we able to enter this market?

由於我們有能力縮小技術差距，我們什麼時候才能進入這個市場？

And you are asking what is our advantage or differentiation especially if we are thinking of the market area where the ARM servers are related.

您在問我們的優勢或差異化是什麼，特別是如果我們正在考慮與 ARM 服務器相關的市場領域。

Is this your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And also not only ARM servers but also notebook.

不僅是ARM服務器，還有筆記本。

Also notebook, okay.

還有筆記本，好吧。

Yes.

是的。

And also what is the bottleneck today.

還有今天的瓶頸是什麼。

Is that software related or it's more of the hardware?

是軟件相關還是更多的硬件？

What will be the other factors that we need to overcome such software or architecture.

我們需要克服此類軟件或架構的其他因素是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Also notebook?

還有筆記本？

Notebook yes.

筆記本是的。

Servers and notebook.

服務器和筆記本。

I think we are obviously very actively pursuing that market.

我認為我們顯然非常積極地追求這個市場。

As to what our advantage will be, it's our advantage as a foundry.

至於我們的優勢是什麼，那是我們作為代工廠的優勢。

We are pursuing or we're going to pursue this market, this higher performance computational market with our foundry experience and foundry record and also the degree of trust that our customers have placed on us.

我們正在或將要追求這個市場，這個具有我們的鑄造經驗和鑄造記錄以及客戶對我們的信任程度的更高性能計算市場。

That's our advantage.

這就是我們的優勢。

So that's our differentiation.

這就是我們的差異化。

Now of course we need a very capable partner as well as ARM.

現在我們當然需要一個非常有能力的合作夥伴以及 ARM。

ARM we already have.

我們已經擁有 ARM。

ARM is a valuable -- has been a valuable partner for us for many years now.

ARM 很有價值——多年來一直是我們的寶貴合作夥伴。

But in addition to ARM, we also will need a capable design company.

但除了 ARM，我們還需要一家有能力的設計公司。

And then the partners together, the three main ones, TSMC, ARM, the design company and many others that we have always had, the equipment people, etc., we think that we have a chance of becoming an important factor in that market.

然後是合作夥伴，三個主要的，台積電，ARM，設計公司和我們一直擁有的許多其他人，設備人等，我們認為我們有機會成為那個市場的重要因素。

Donald, are you happy with the answer?

唐納德，你對答案滿意嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Can you be more specific about -- Chairman, you talked about the capable partner.

您能否更具體一點——主席，您談到了有能力的合作夥伴。

I believe there has been a few companies buying in the notebook market.

我相信已經有幾家公司在筆記本市場上購買了。

Do you mean that you will be expecting a new company in this market or existing CPU companies to use TSMC as a foundry.

你的意思是你會期待這個市場上的新公司或現有的 CPU 公司使用台積電作為代工廠嗎？

Again I have to apologize because of the voice transmission has not been quite clear.

我不得不再次道歉，因為語音傳輸不太清楚。

So let me repeat what we think we have heard from you is that you want something more specific such as when Chairman talked about the capable partners in terms of design companies.

因此，讓我重複一下，我們認為我們從您那裡聽到的是，您想要一些更具體的東西，例如當主席談到設計公司方面有能力的合作夥伴時。

And you are asking in the notebook area, there are -- I think you were saying that there are some consolidations and then what will be -- whether we will be able to have new customers coming in to work with TSMC as a good partner in this area.

你在筆記本電腦領域問，我想你是說有一些整合，然後會是什麼——我們是否能夠讓新客戶進來與台積電合作，作為一個很好的合作夥伴這片區域。

Is that what you were saying?

那是你說的嗎？

Specifically who the partners -- who our partners will be?

具體來說，合作夥伴是誰——我們的合作夥伴將是誰？

Well, specifically, who are the most capable design companies?

那麼，具體來說，誰是最有能力的設計公司？

And our partners will be among those.

我們的合作夥伴將在其中。

Okay.

好的。

I guess let's come back to the floor and we will see if we can fix the voice issues on the call.

我想讓我們回到現場，看看能否解決通話中的語音問題。

Let me come back to the floor.

讓我回到地板上。

Next we'll be having questions coming from UBS, Eric Chen.

接下來我們將有來自瑞銀的問題，Eric Chen。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My first question I would like to go to Lora.

我的第一個問題我想去洛拉。

And Lora, you just mentioned the free cash flow will keep increase and let me double check.

勞拉，你剛剛提到自由現金流會不斷增加，讓我仔細檢查一下。

You mentioned before the free cash flow at the end of this year will double from the end of year 2013.

您之前提到，今年年底的自由現金流將比 2013 年底翻一番。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

I don't have 2013 in front of me.

我面前沒有2013年。

I think based on our current outlook for the whole year, it should be right.

我認為根據我們目前對全年的展望，應該是對的。

Okay.

好的。

So that indicates probably 35%, 40% year-on-year growth.

因此，這表明可能會出現 35%、40% 的同比增長。

Based on the CapEx to revenue ratio, the can I say guidance, the mid-30% you give and also the revenue target, so can we expect the same ratio growth for your free cash flow going forward?

基於資本支出與收入的比率，我可以說指導，你給出的 30% 的中間值以及收入目標，那麼我們可以預期你的自由現金流未來的比率增長相同嗎？

I cannot answer that way.

我不能那樣回答。

You have to figure out because I just said is revenue growth and free cash flow is going to increase.

你必須弄清楚，因為我剛才說的是收入增長和自由現金流將會增加。

But it's hard for me to quantify the degree of increase every year.

但我很難量化每年的增長程度。

It's difficult.

它很難。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, how about the other way.

好吧，換個方式怎麼樣。

How about depreciation expenses growth?

折舊費用增長如何？

You gave a guidance for this year around mid teens.

你在十幾歲左右給了今年的指導。

And based on your CapEx and the revenue target going forward, what kind of depreciation expenses growth we should expect?

根據您的資本支出和未來的收入目標，我們應該期待什麼樣的折舊費用增長？

I can only talk about this year, okay, because we have not fixed the CapEx for the remaining years.

我只能說今年，好吧，因為我們還沒有固定剩餘幾年的資本支出。

This year the depreciation is expected to go up by 13% year over year.

今年的折舊預計將同比增長13%。

13?

13？

13% which is lower than the number I gave you last time.

13%，比我上次給你的數字要低。

I said mid teen last time.

我上次說的是十幾歲。

Okay.

好的。

And my second question I would like to go to Dr. Chang.

我的第二個問題想請教張博士。

And first on the EUV, how about the EUV schedule for 10-nanometer process?

首先是 EUV，10 納米工藝的 EUV 時間表如何？

Some people talk about the window is closed.

有人說窗戶是關著的。

And how about the EUV for 7-nanometer process?

用於 7 納米工藝的 EUV 怎麼樣？

I will pass the question to Mark.

我會把問題交給馬克。

The window is not closed.

窗口沒有關閉。

We work very closely with ASML and however it's not without challenges.

我們與 ASML 密切合作，但並非沒有挑戰。

And we made a very good progress on the source power as well as on the photo resist.

我們在源功率和光刻膠方面取得了非常好的進展。

And for mass inspection solution it appears more likely.

對於大規模檢測解決方案，它似乎更有可能。

However, the current technology's challenge is more on the mask of the EUV technologies.

然而，目前技術的挑戰更多是在EUV技術的掩膜上。

That is currently actively we're working with ASML.

目前我們正在積極地與 ASML 合作。

On the tools stability we have a criteria for the working team to reach a certain target.

在工具穩定性方面，我們有一個標準，讓工作團隊達到某個目標。

And that target is likely to reach by the end of this year and then we will start development using EUV tools.

這個目標很可能在今年年底之前達到，然後我們將開始使用 EUV 工具進行開發。

As you can see in our 7-nanometer development schedule that probably will not using EUV.

正如您在我們的 7 納米開發計劃中看到的那樣，可能不會使用 EUV。

But we are planning to exercise EUV using the 7-nanometer technology and currently we are planning to use EUV at 5 nanometer.

但我們計劃使用 7 納米技術來使用 EUV，目前我們計劃使用 5 納米的 EUV。

But of course it does depend certain development criteria, milestones to be reached.

但當然，它確實取決於某些開發標準，要達到的里程碑。

And it has a good benefit from our assessment on the 7 -- on the 5 nanometer that reduce a lot of many masking layers and increase a lot of better control for the 5 nanometer.

它從我們對 7 - 5 納米的評估中受益匪淺，減少了許多掩蔽層並增加了對 5 納米的更好控制。

Okay, so let me clarify.

好的，讓我澄清一下。

Even for the 10 nano the window for the EUV for the 10-nanometer process is not closed yet.

即使對於 10 納米，10 納米工藝的 EUV 窗口也尚未關閉。

For 7 as I say we will exercise EUV on 7 nanometer.

對於 7，正如我所說，我們將在 7 納米上使用 EUV。

And we will plan our EUV on our 5-nanometer technology.

我們將在我們的 5 納米技術上規劃我們的 EUV。

But not for 10.

但不是10。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

I think Eric has his two questions.

我認為埃里克有他的兩個問題。

He will come back later.

他稍後會回來。

Next one I think is a question will come from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

我認為下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

I'm sorry, Roland, before you ask questions, let me make a brief announcement.

抱歉，羅蘭，在你提問之前，讓我先做一個簡短的聲明。

For those of you who are on the line trying to call in for questions, since we have this voice transmission problem, could you please send me your questions in email to my mailbox so that I can read out your questions.

對於那些試圖打電話問問題的人，由於我們有這個語音傳輸問題，請將您的問題通過電子郵件發送到我的郵箱，以便我可以讀出您的問題。

And I think most of you know my email address.

我想你們中的大多數人都知道我的電子郵件地址。

That's Elizabeth_sun@tsmc.com.

那是 Elizabeth_sun@tsmc.com。

So if you are on the line waiting to ask questions please send me your questions through email.

因此，如果您在線等待提問，請通過電子郵件將您的問題發送給我。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So Roland now.

所以羅蘭現在。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I think my first question we know there are customer deposit to TSMC to reserve the capacity.

我想我的第一個問題我們知道有客戶存款到台積電以保留產能。

Can we have more color on how TSMC is going to recognize the revenue for these customer deposits?

我們能否對台積電如何確認這些客戶存款的收入有更多的了解？

Is the 3Q revenue guidance included these customer deposits?

第三季度收入指引是否包括這些客戶存款？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The customer deposits is a balance sheet item.

客戶存款是資產負債表項目。

So it not has to do with the P&L.

所以它與損益表無關。

There's a certain commitment from customers on loading.

客戶對裝載有一定的承諾。

When they reach the loading we will return part of the deposit to them, so still a balance sheet item.

當他們達到裝載量時，我們會將部分押金退還給他們，因此仍然是資產負債表項目。

Okay, so they never go to the P&L.

好的，所以他們從不去損益表。

They are not.

他們不是。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay, second question is for 28 nanometer, I think C.C. said there's a lot of second wave opportunity for 28 nanometer.

好的，第二個問題是關於 28 納米的，我想 C.C.說28納米有很多第二波機會。

And 28 nanometer last year contributed almost $8b in revenue to TSMC.

去年，28 納米為台積電貢獻了近 8 億美元的收入。

So the question is with this contribution for second wave 28-nanometer application, for next year are we going to see 28-nanometer revenue continue to expand even more than this $8b level?

所以問題是第二波 28 納米應用的貢獻，明年我們會看到 28 納米的收入繼續增長，甚至超過這個 8b 美元的水平嗎？

Can you repeat this?

你能重複一遍嗎？

So Roland's question is that 28 nanometer has been a very big node for us.

所以 Roland 的問題是 28 納米對我們來說是一個非常大的節點。

Last year according to Roland's estimate that we have made $8b revenue from 28 nanometer.

去年根據 Roland 的估計，我們從 28 納米獲得了 8b 美元的收入。

So with the second wave applications coming in, his question is will we be able to expand that $8b revenue next year from 28 nanometer's second wave customers.

因此，隨著第二波應用的到來，他的問題是我們能否在明年從 28 納米的第二波客戶那裡擴大 8b 美元的收入。

I don't know about the $8b.

我不知道$ 8b。

If you think it's $8b maybe it's $8b.

如果您認為它是 $8b，那麼它可能是 $8b。

I can't verify that.

我無法驗證。

But I can say that 28 nanometer will continue to be strong for several years.

但我可以說，28 納米將繼續強勁幾年。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

If I can -- maybe I can ask another question.

如果可以- 也許我可以問另一個問題。

For 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer, I think TSMC always said this will be the same technology node and also we are expecting much bigger market share for 16-nanometer next year.

對於 20 納米和 16 納米，我認為台積電一直說這將是相同的技術節點，而且我們預計明年 16 納米的市場份額會更大。

So will the combined 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer revenue to reach or bigger than 28-nanometer last year?

那麼去年 20 納米和 16 納米的總收入會達到或超過 28 納米嗎？

What is the question?

問題是什麼？

For 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer revenue together next year, will this revenue bigger than 28-nanometer revenue in last year or this year?

明年 20 納米和 16 納米的收入加起來，這個收入會比去年或今年的 28 納米收入更大嗎？

Okay, 20 plus 16 together next year, will that be bigger than 28 nanometer last year or this year?

好吧，明年 20 加 16 加起來，會比去年或今年的 28 納米大嗎？

Again I don't know the answer to that.

我又不知道答案。

But I can say is that 16 next year will be much bigger than 20 this year.

但我可以說，明年的 16 會比今年的 20 大得多。

And as a percent of total corporate revenue, 16 next year will be higher than 20 this year.

而作為公司總收入的百分比，明年的 16 將高於今年的 20。

And next time Roland will probably come in and tell me how many billion dollars we are billing.

下次 Roland 可能會進來告訴我我們的賬單是多少億美元。

Okay.

好的。

Now at this point I think we have Brett Simpson on the line and he has already sent me his questions.

現在在這一點上，我認為我們有布雷特辛普森在線，他已經向我發送了他的問題。

So operator, first please open the line for Brett Simpson and then I'm reading out his questions.

所以接線員，首先請為布雷特辛普森打開線路，然後我正在讀出他的問題。

And then our management can answer and then Brett may have a follow up.

然後我們的管理層可以回答，然後布雷特可能會跟進。

Brett Simpson's question number one, you talked about your outlook for 16-nanometer -- no, for 2016, double-digit revenue growth and mid-30s CapEx to sales ratio.

布雷特辛普森的第一個問題，你談到了你對 16 納米的前景——不，2016 年，兩位數的收入增長和 30 年代中期的資本支出與銷售比率。

What do you foresee FinFET to be as a percent of sales in 2016 and directionally how might 28-nanometer and 20-nanometer trend?

您預計 FinFET 在 2016 年佔銷售額的百分比是多少，以及 28 納米和 20 納米的趨勢如何？

Can they grow in 2016?

他們能在2016年成長嗎？

Say it again.

再說一遍。

16-nanometer percentage of revenue next year.

明年收入的 16 納米百分比。

So whether 28 and 20-nanometer will be bigger next year than this year.

那麼明年 28 和 20 納米是否會比今年更大。

16's percentage of revenue will be what?

16的收入比例會是多少？

Yes, he's asking us how much we will get as a percent of revenue from 16-nanometer next year.

是的，他在問我們明年將從 16 納米獲得的收入佔收入的百分比是多少。

Well, I stick with my previous answer.

好吧，我堅持我之前的回答。

16 next year our revenue percentage and revenue dollars will be greater than 20 this year.

16 明年我們的收入百分比和收入美元將大於今年的 20。

All right.

好的。

And is there another one?

還有一個嗎？

Is there another question?

還有一個問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

The second part is 28-nanometer and 20-nanometer whether they will be bigger next year than this year.

第二部分是28納米和20納米明年是否會比今年更大。

28?

28？

And 20.

和 20。

And 20 will be --

20個將是——

His question is whether they will be bigger next year than this year.

他的問題是明年它們是否會比今年更大。

20 -- do you know the answer to that one?

20 -- 你知道那個問題的答案嗎？

C.C. and Mark was talking about expanding the 28 technology offering to more features.

C.C.馬克正在談論將 28 種技術產品擴展到更多功能。

So with that we believe our 2016 28-nanometer revenue will continue to grow.

因此，我們相信我們 2016 年 28 納米的收入將繼續增長。

It will be bigger than this year.

它會比今年更大。

I think 20-nanometer we have already mentioned in C.C.'s comments earlier which is a smaller level next year than this year.

我認為我們之前在 C.C. 的評論中已經提到了 20 納米，這是明年比今年更小的水平。

I think C.C. has already mentioned that.

我認為C.C.已經提到過。

Okay, so Brett's second question.

好的，布雷特的第二個問題。

Consolidation among your customers, they are talking about savings with foundry partners as a result of higher scale economies.

您的客戶之間的整合，他們正在與代工合作夥伴談論由於更高的規模經濟而節省的成本。

Can you give us your perspective on the impact that large-scale M&A has on wafer pricing?

您能否就大規模併購對晶圓定價的影響發表看法？

I don't expect any impact.

我預計不會有任何影響。

I think of course when two companies combine there are synergies and there are savings.

我認為當兩家公司合併時，當然會產生協同效應並節省成本。

But that doesn't necessarily mean that we have to save for them.

但這並不一定意味著我們必須為他們存錢。

Okay.

好的。

This is a very clear answer.

這是一個非常明確的答案。

And Brett has another question.

布雷特還有另一個問題。

When you think about capacity planning for 10 nanometer, 7 nanometer how does this compare with 28 capacity and 20/16 nanometer.

當您考慮 10 納米、7 納米的容量規劃時，這與 28 容量和 20/16 納米相比如何。

Should we assume that with lower capital intensity that 10 and 7 nanometer will be smaller nodes for TSMC in wafer capacity?

我們是否應該假設在資本密集度較低的情況下，10 納米和 7 納米將成為台積電在晶圓產能上的較小節點？

Say it again.

再說一遍。

Whether or not 10 and 7 will be smaller than 20 and 16.

10 和 7 是否會小於 20 和 16。

In what?

在什麼？

In capacity.

容量上。

Look, let me just say it in an overall sense.

看，讓我從整體意義上說。

We expect -- 28 of course was very successful and we expect 20 and 16 together to be at least as successful as 28 over its -- over the two lives -- over the lives of the two.

我們預計——當然，28 非常成功，我們預計 20 和 16 加起來至少與 28 一樣成功——在兩個生命中——在兩個生命中。

In fact, we expect 20 and 16 together to be bigger in revenue over the lives of those two technologies than 16.

事實上，我們預計 20 和 16 加起來在這兩種技術的生命週期中的收入將比 16 大。

Now 10 and 7, our present plan is that in terms of wafers it may be -- combining the 10 and 7 together, in terms of wafers, it may be a bit lower than 20 and 16.

現在是 10 和 7，我們目前的計劃是，就晶圓而言，它可能是 - 將 10 和 7 結合在一起，就晶圓而言，它可能會比 20 和 16 低一點。

In terms of dollars we expect it to be as significant as 20 and 16 over -- again over the lives of the respective technologies.

就美元而言，我們預計它會像 20 和 16 一樣重要——再次超過各自技術的生命週期。

Okay.

好的。

Brett, I think we have addressed all three questions you sent over.

布雷特，我想我們已經解決了你發來的所有三個問題。

And if you have further follow-up please send me an email again.

如果您有進一步的跟進，請再次給我發送電子郵件。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Next we will -- questions will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

接下來我們將 - 問題將來自 Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu。

Thank you for taking my questions.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

My questions is about your Q4 outlook.

我的問題是關於你的第四季度展望。

Can you give us more color about that because you were talking about your demand driver is coming from iPhone -- new iPhone launches which seems to me is back-end loaded.

你能否給我們更多的顏色，因為你在談論你的需求驅動來自 iPhone——在我看來，新 iPhone 的發布是後端加載的。

And you're talking about your -- another your demand driver is coming from 16-nanometer FinFET ramp up.

您正在談論您的另一個需求驅動因素來自 16 納米 FinFET 的增加。

That is also kind of a back-end loaded given the long cycle time.

考慮到較長的周期時間，這也是一種後端加載。

Can we fairly anticipate your Q4 total revenue would be better than Q3?

我們可以公平地預期您的第四季度總收入會好於第三季度嗎？

Well, we're not ready to forecast Q4 at this meeting.

好吧，我們還沒有準備好在這次會議上預測第四季度。

Now I think there was a related question that was pre-submitted.

現在我認為有一個相關問題是預先提交的。

No, it wasn't pre-submitted.

不，它不是預先提交的。

I saw it on a Taiwan newspaper today.

我今天在台灣報紙上看到的。

The related question, I am ready to answer that.

相關問題，我準備回答。

So let me just answer.

所以讓我回答一下。

The related question appeared in the commercial daily.

相關問題出現在商業日報上。

I think it was the Commercial Times, I think it was.

我想是《商業時報》，我想是的。

The question was with the inventory going down so slowly, what is the implication for the fourth quarter this year and first quarter next year.

問題是庫存下降如此緩慢，對今年第四季度和明年第一季度有何影響。

So you know I thought it was a pretty good question, so I got ready to answer that one.

所以你知道我認為這是一個很好的問題，所以我準備回答這個問題。

So maybe answering that one will also at least partially answer yours.

所以也許回答這個問題也至少會部分回答你的問題。

Clearly, the slowly decreasing inventory is not a very good omen for the fourth quarter.

顯然，庫存的緩慢下降對於第四季度來說並不是一個很好的預兆。

The inventory is being depleted more slowly than we expected.

庫存消耗的速度比我們預期的要慢。

However -- however, the impact on the first quarter is an entirely different story.

然而——然而，對第一季度的影響是完全不同的故事。

We do expect that the fourth quarter, by the end of the fourth quarter, the inventory will be back to the so-called seasonal level or even lower.

我們確實預計第四季度，到第四季度末，庫存將回到所謂的季節性水平甚至更低。

And that bodes very well for the first quarter.

這對第一季度來說是個好兆頭。

But still I, having said all that, I still repeat to you another thing I said.

但是我，說了這麼多，我還是再重複一遍我說過的話。

For the entire year we still think that we will have double-digit growth.

全年我們仍然認為我們將有兩位數的增長。

Okay, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

My second question is about maybe in 2016 or 2017, how do you see the rise of the Samsung in-sourcing strategy.

我的第二個問題是關於可能在 2016 年或 2017 年，您如何看待三星內包戰略的興起。

How do we see the what?

我們如何看到什麼？

The increase of the Samsung in-sourcing strategy.

三星內包策略的增加。

Samsung's using more of its internal products than go to foundry.

三星使用更多的內部產品而不是代工。

It reduces the foundry market.

它減少了代工市場。

We count that as non-foundry market.

我們將其視為非代工市場。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

Now since several analysts have sent me questions, I need to read out the next one.

現在，由於有幾位分析師向我發送了問題，我需要讀出下一個問題。

And operator, please open the line for Mehdi Hosseini.

接線員，請為 Mehdi Hosseini 開通線路。

Mehdi has two questions.

邁赫迪有兩個問題。

One, how will consolidation among China-based smartphone OEMs impact TSMC's revenue CAGR of 10%?

一、中國智能手機 OEM 的整合將如何影響台積電 10% 的收入複合年增長率？

China smartphone OEMs consolidation impact TSMC's 10% CAGR.

中國智能手機 OEM 整合影響台積電 10%的年復合增長率。

C.C., you're going to answer.

C.C.，你會回答的。

China's OEM consolidation.

中國OEM整合。

Smartphone OEMs.

智能手機 OEM。

Smartphone OEMs consolidation.

智能手機 OEM 整合。

I don't think any of us is really qualified to answer.

我認為我們中沒有任何人真正有資格回答。

Sorry Mehdi, we cannot answer.

抱歉，Mehdi，我們無法回答。

Second question.

第二個問題。

I think it gets to the consolidation of some of our customers' customers in China.

我認為這可以鞏固我們在中國的一些客戶的客戶。

I think that's what you ask.

我想這就是你要問的。

Right.

正確的。

So it doesn't appear that we can answer that.

因此，我們似乎無法回答這個問題。

Second question is still related to our CAGR of 10%.

第二個問題仍然與我們 10% 的複合年增長率有關。

What are the key assumptions for wafer shipment and ASP trends in our revenue CAGR guide of 10%?

在我們 10% 的收入複合年增長率指南中，晶圓出貨量和 ASP 趨勢的關鍵假設是什麼？

I don't know.

我不知道。

All I want to do is to make at least 10%.

我想做的就是至少賺10%。

And it's a bottom-up thing.

這是一個自下而上的事情。

It's not something that -- it's not top-down.

這不是什麼——它不是自上而下的。

Actually 99% of our plans and forecasts are bottom-up.

實際上，我們 99% 的計劃和預測都是自下而上的。

And so when you say, what are the assumptions and so on, I have to talk to, ask 50 people what their assumptions are.

所以當你說，假設是什麼等等時，我必須和 50 個人交談，問他們的假設是什麼。

And I just or I should say we, we just tend to trust them.

我只是或者我應該說我們，我們只是傾向於信任他們。

Actually on the whole, for years or maybe even decades on the whole they have done a really good job.

實際上，總體而言，幾年甚至幾十年來，他們做得非常好。

They've done a much better job in forecasting or planning in this bottom-up way than any top-down kind of thing.

他們以這種自下而上的方式在預測或計劃方面做得比任何自上而下的方式都要好得多。

Top-down you make assumptions and so on and your assumptions could be all wrong.

自上而下你做出假設等等，你的假設可能都是錯誤的。

Bottom-up, of course many people make assumptions.

自下而上，當然很多人會做出假設。

And I -- we, I will have to ask 50 people or maybe even 100 people and I certainly am not going to do that.

而我——我們，我將不得不詢問 50 人，甚至可能是 100 人，我當然不會那樣做。

But anyway it's -- that's our 10%, that 10% is the bottom-up kind of a forecast.

但無論如何，這是我們的 10%，那 10% 是自下而上的預測。

Okay.

好的。

Since there are still quite a few questions posted online, I'm going to the next one online which is from Steven Pelayo at HSBC.

由於網上仍有不少問題，我將轉到下一個在線問題，該問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Steven has a couple of questions.

史蒂文有幾個問題。

I'm just reading it out.

我只是把它讀出來。

Clarification of full-year guidance.

澄清全年指導。

You said full year to grow double digit.

你說全年增長兩位數。

But you also recently said second half 2015 will be greater than first half.

但是你最近也說 2015 年下半年將大於上半年。

I said that -- I said that in June of -- June 9 something like that, shareholders meeting.

我說過 - 我在 6 月 - 6 月 9 日的股東大會上說過。

Well, that forecast has become more marginal now.

好吧，這個預測現在變得更加邊緣化了。

Okay, so then.

好的，那就這樣吧。

So I said two things.

所以我說了兩件事。

Meaning first, the second half will be better than the first half.

首先，下半場會比上半場好。

Second, the whole year will be double digit.

二是全年實現兩位數。

The second part still holds, the first part, may still be true, but as I said has become more marginal now.

第二部分仍然成立，第一部分可能仍然是正確的，但正如我所說的那樣，現在變得更加邊緣化了。

Since Chairman has already answered this, so I will skip Steven's follow-up questions, which is all the minute details of that first half, second half thing.

由於主席已經回答了這個問題，所以我將跳過史蒂文的後續問題，這是上半場、下半場的所有細節。

But then he indeed had a question about third quarter guidance.

但隨後他確實對第三季度的指導有疑問。

He said, 3Q guidance of 1% to 2% growth, what nodes will grow and which will decline or are all stable.

他說，3Q指導1%到2%的增長，哪些節點會增長，哪些會下降或者都穩定。

Say it again.

再說一遍。

All right.

好的。

He wants to have colors on third quarter node by node sequential growth.

他希望按節點順序增長在第三季度節點上顯示顏色。

For third quarter, node by node sequential growth.

第三季度，逐個節點連續增長。

Growth or decline?

增長還是下降？

Can we answer that Lora or C.C. or Mark?

我們能回答 Lora 還是 C.C.還是馬克？

Or do you want to answer?

還是你想回答？

Let me try.

讓我試試。

I will not answer node by node revenue growth, but I can give you some color on the segment growth.

我不會逐個節點地回答收入增長，但我可以給你一些關於細分增長的顏色。

The third quarter we believe communication will come down, computer will go up, consumer will go up and industrial and others will go up.

第三季度我們認為通信會下降，計算機會上升，消費會上升，工業和其他會上升。

So, okay, with that, let`s come back to the floor.

所以，好吧，讓我們回到地板上。

Michael Chou from Deutsche Bank has follow up questions and then afterwards we'll go to JPMorgan.

德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 有後續問題，然後我們會去摩根大通。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Michael is with Deutsche Bank?

邁克爾在德意志銀行？

Were you the one that asked that I thought I said was a pretty smart question, in the commercial --

你是不是那個問我認為我說的是一個非常聰明的問題的人，在廣告中——

In 10 nanometer actually given what would seem 16 nanometer for your market share, do you think your first year in 10 nanometer --

在 10 納米實際上考慮到 16 納米的市場份額，你認為你在 10 納米的第一年——

You didn't answer my question.

你沒有回答我的問題。

Were you the one that asked that question about how the inventory decrease will impact, were you the one?

你是那個問庫存減少將如何影響這個問題的人嗎？

No?

不？

Randy?

蘭迪？

I thought it was Deutsche Bank.

我以為是德意志銀行。

Randy, you're not Deutsche Bank are you?

蘭迪，你不是德意志銀行嗎？

Okay, never mind, you ask your question then.

好吧，沒關係，那你問你的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Do you expect your 10 nanometer market share in the first year will be quite dominant?

您預計您的 10 納米市場份額在第一年會佔據主導地位嗎？

What's that?

那是什麼？

Your 10-nanometer market share in the first year.

第一年你的 10 納米市場份額。

10 nanometer?

10納米？

Market share in the first year going forward will be quite big.

未來第一年的市場份額將相當大。

Given what we've seen in 16 nanometer --

鑑於我們在 16 納米中看到的——

What will 10-nanometer market share be?

10納米的市場份額會是多少？

Yes.

是的。

For the first year.

第一年。

Do you want to answer that?

你想回答這個問題嗎？

Well actually the answer is, we don't know.

其實答案是，我們不知道。

For first year, 10 nanometer will be, really first year will be year after next, all right, 2017.

對於第一年，10 納米將是，真正的第一年將是後年，好吧，2017 年。

I mean we'll start end of next year, start means you know, not very many wafers.

我的意思是我們將在明年年底開始，開始意味著你知道，不是很多晶圓。

And 2017 it will become quite significant.

2017年它將變得非常重要。

All right, I will try to answer you.

好的，我會盡力回答你的。

I think it will be bigger than the first year 16 nanometer market share.

我認為它會比第一年16納米的市場份額更大。

That's a very safe one.

這是一個非常安全的。

Okay, now we're going to JPMorgan, Gokul Hariharan.

好的，現在我們要去摩根大通，Gokul Hariharan。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Dr. Chang, just wanted to get your updated view on what you think about locating a 12-inch fab in China given that China semiconductor ecosystem seems to be developing very quickly.

鑑於中國半導體生態系統似乎正在快速發展，Chang 博士只是想了解您對在中國設立 12 英寸晶圓廠的看法。

Any updates or any new thoughts on also what's happening in terms of the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem build-out.

關於中國半導體生態系統建設方面正在發生的任何更新或任何新想法。

All right, Gokul's question is, can we talk about whether we have a plan to build a 12-inch wafer fab in China?

好的，Gokul 的問題是，我們能否談談我們是否有計劃在中國建一個 12 英寸晶圓廠？

Can we comment on our competitors building out ecosystems in China?

我們能否評論一下我們的競爭對手在中國建立生態系統？

We are only considering it and we have no comment on the competitors doing it.

我們只是在考慮它，我們對競爭對手的做法沒有任何評論。

Okay.

好的。

A follow-up on the new areas of growth that you mentioned like IoT, automotive, industrial going from next year onwards.

您提到的新增長領域的後續行動，例如從明年開始的物聯網、汽車、工業。

There is a perception that a lot of that growth could be happening in mature nodes and not so much in advanced nodes.

有一種看法認為，很多增長可能發生在成熟節點中，而不是在高級節點中。

Could you address what areas would that growth be coming from because in the past a lot of the new markets have been demanding advanced processes rather than the mature processes.

您能否說明增長來自哪些領域，因為過去許多新市場一直在要求先進的流程，而不是成熟的流程。

All right, so Gokul's second question is with respect to the new growth area, since we have mentioned the new growth area of IoTs, automobiles, industrial, he thought that these are all more related to the mature nodes and not necessarily the leading edge advanced nodes.

好的，所以Gokul的第二個問題是關於新增長領域，既然我們提到了IoT，汽車，工業的新增長領域，他認為這些都與成熟的節點有關，不一定是前沿先進節點。

So he liked to have us --

所以他喜歡我們——

I missed the last few words.

我錯過了最後幾句話。

The -- those applications tend to use only the mature node and not the advanced nodes.

——那些應用程序傾向於只使用成熟節點而不是高級節點。

So what will be the growth opportunities that would probably use the advanced nodes, right?

那麼可能會使用高級節點的增長機會是什麼，對嗎？

As long as there is a new application it's growth, I mean yes, they use mature nodes, but generally, they don't use just the mature equipment.

只要有一個新的應用程序，它就會增長，我的意思是，他們使用成熟的節點，但一般來說，他們不會只使用成熟的設備。

We have to upgrade the equipment.

我們必須升級設備。

We have to make couple of investments.

我們必須進行幾項投資。

In fact, we have all along been making considerable capital investments in the mature nodes, in some years more than other years.

事實上，我們一直在對成熟節點進行大量的資本投資，有些年份比其他年份更多。

I think we have been telling you most years how much of our capital CapEx is in the leading nodes and so on.

我想我們多年來一直在告訴你我們有多少資本資本支出在領先節點等等。

And there is a pretty significant portion that's not leading edge.

並且有相當重要的部分不是領先優勢。

Those are mature nodes.

這些是成熟的節點。

And usually there is considerable investment, additional investment we need to make to adapt to the equipment to -- it's not really changing the equipment, it's buying new equipment in order to do the specialty IoT kind of products.

通常會有相當大的投資，我們需要進行額外的投資來適應設備——這並不是真正改變設備，而是購買新設備來生產專門的物聯網產品。

So even if it's a mature node, it means growth.

所以即使是成熟的節點，也意味著成長。

Okay, I think Donald Lu sent over some follow-up questions.

好的，我認為 Donald Lu 發送了一些後續問題。

I will read it out right here.

我會在這裡讀出來。

Donald's question, do you still think that global foundry, I mean it's not that company in New York, it's worldwide foundry 14 nanometer and 16 nanometer capacity is rational, i.e.

唐納德的問題，你是否仍然認為全球代工廠，我的意思是不是紐約的那家公司，而是全球代工廠 14 納米和 16 納米的產能是合理的，即

whether or not the world's overall 14 and 16 nanometer capacity will that be rational?

全球整體 14 納米和 16 納米的產能是否合理？

Second question, does TSMC still expect its smartphone content to increase year-over-year in 2015 and 2016?

第二個問題，台積電是否仍預計其智能手機內容在 2015 年和 2016 年會同比增長？

First question?

第一個問題？

Whether the total capacity will be rational?

總容量是否會合理？

Whether they will be rational?

他們是否會理性？

The 16 nanometer?

16納米？

Yes.

是的。

I think the 16 nanometer global capacity will be rational.

我認為16納米的全球產能將是合理的。

And the second question, well look, there aren't many companies in the 16 nanometer.

第二個問題，你看，16納米的公司並不多。

So where there are just a few players, I expect the capacity to be more rational than if they are lot of players.

因此，在只有少數玩家的情況下，我希望容量比很多玩家更合理。

And another thing is it's very expensive, well, anyway more expensive than the 10 and a lot more expensive than the -- oh no no, more so than the 20.

另一件事是它非常昂貴，嗯，無論如何都比 10 貴，而且比 20 貴得多——哦，不，不，比 20 貴。

And they are a lot more expensive than the 28 on top of the 16 now.

而且它們比現在 16 上的 28 貴得多。

So those two reasons, few players and very expensive capacity, make me think that the 16 capacity will be rational.

所以這兩個原因，很少的玩家和非常昂貴的容量，讓我認為16容量將是合理的。

And the second question?

第二個問題？

Do we expect the smartphone content to increase for us?

我們是否期望智能手機內容為我們增加？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

And do you have a more quantitative answer?

你有更量化的答案嗎？

You do?

你做？

Well, good.

嗯，很好。

The overall content for the smartphone for us will increase next year versus this year in general slightly, but especially on the high end --

明年我們智能手機的整體內容將比今年略有增加，但尤其是在高端——

I think he means how many dollars we have --

我想他的意思是我們有多少美元——

Yes, that's what I am talking about.

是的，這就是我要說的。

Especially high end smartphone, we expect the content dollars will go up by $1 next year from this year.

尤其是高端智能手機，我們預計明年內容收入將比今年上漲 1 美元。

And mid to lower end also?

還有中低端？

Yes, mid, low-end also increase slightly.

是的，中低端也有小幅上漲。

Integrated.

融合的。

Our TSMC dollars in it.

我們的台積電在其中。

Okay, now we are coming back to the floor.

好的，現在我們回到地板上。

This question will be coming from Dan Heyler, Bank of America.

這個問題將來自美國銀行的 Dan Heyler。

Just a quick follow-up on Lora's numbers there, could you remind us from what -- you said $1, so what's the absolute number for 2016 in terms of content at the high end and the middle to low end?

只是快速跟進 Lora 的數字，你能提醒我們什麼 - 你說 1 美元，那麼就高端和中低端的內容而言，2016 年的絕對數字是多少？

Okay for high end the dollar will be from $18.7 to $19.7 for TSMC.

好的，對於高端而言，台積電的美元將從 18.7 美元升至 19.7 美元。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the market share opportunities that you highlighted in mobile, Dr. Chang, you mentioned that next year within the mobile market you anticipate the potential to increase share.

然後談到您在移動領域強調的市場份額機會，Chang 博士，您提到明年在移動市場中您預計份額可能會增加。

Does that require significant share gains across kind of -- will that be share gains across all the customers or do you anticipate some share loss at say one of the major customers in those assumptions, because it looks as though competition is actually increasing in mobile, so I wanted to get more color.

這是否需要顯著的份額收益 - 是所有客戶的份額收益，還是您預計這些假設中的主要客戶之一會出現一些份額損失，因為看起來移動領域的競爭實際上正在加劇，所以我想獲得更多的顏色。

Share gain, well, every customer, well, that is -- that can only be dreamed of.

分享收益，嗯，每個客戶，嗯，那就是——這只能是夢寐以求的。

There are always some share gains, some share losses, but on the whole I expect a share gain.

總有一些份額收益，一些份額損失，但總的來說，我預計份額收益。

Follow-up question from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯的後續問題。

I just wanted to follow up on last quarter you mentioned FinFET would be better than your prior plan, implying like low teens growth by fourth quarter.

我只是想跟進上個季度你提到的 FinFET 會比你之前的計劃更好，這意味著到第四季度的青少年增長率會很低。

Could you give an update on the pace of that, like if you'll get some revenue in third quarter and you still expect over 10% fourth quarter and the 20 node in the second quarter got close to 20%, so if we could get toward that by first half next year?

您能否提供有關進度的最新信息，例如，如果您將在第三季度獲得一些收入，但您仍預計第四季度將超過 10%，而第二季度的 20 個節點接近 20%，那麼如果我們能得到到明年上半年？

Will you repeat the question?

你會重複這個問題嗎？

Sorry, I was busy with my BlackBerry.

抱歉，我正忙於我的黑莓手機。

Okay, so I was just asking if FinFET, if you still expect to have some revenue in third quarter over 10% in fourth quarter and then to match 20 to get about 20% of sales by first half.

好的，所以我只是問 FinFET，您是否仍預計第三季度的收入在第四季度超過 10%，然後匹配 20 以在上半年獲得約 20% 的銷售額。

Do I expect in the third quarter 10% did you say?

你說我預計第三季度會達到 10% 嗎？

In third quarter to get revenue and then fourth quarter 10% or more revenue and then first half that start approaching 20%.

在第三季度獲得收入，然後第四季度獲得 10% 或更多的收入，然後上半年開始接近 20%。

I don't think I said anything about 10%.

我不認為我說過任何關於 10% 的事情。

That's right.

這是正確的。

I said 10% by the whole year.

我說全年10%。

I think last conference the comment was --

我認為上次會議的評論是——

Randy, I think we remember, last conference one analyst was saying that he predict we will get 12% revenue from 16 nanometer in the fourth quarter.

Randy，我想我們記得，上次會議一位分析師說他預測我們將在第四季度從 16 納米獲得 12% 的收入。

But the management did not agree to that number.

但管理層不同意這個數字。

The management did not accept that 12% number.

管理層不接受這個 12% 的數字。

Okay.

好的。

That was last time.

那是最後一次。

Was that your question?

那是你的問題嗎？

Yes my question was if you could comment how it will grow as a percent of sales over the next couple of quarters?

是的，我的問題是，您能否評論一下它在接下來的幾個季度中佔銷售額的百分比將如何增長？

How would the 16 nanometer grow as a percent of our revenue in the next few quarters?

在接下來的幾個季度中，16 納米占我們收入的百分比將如何增長？

Want to talk about that?

想談談嗎？

Well, do you want to talk about -- I know that we don't want to talk about fourth quarter, but do you want to talk about third quarter?

好吧，你想談談 - 我知道我們不想談論第四季度，但你想談論第三季度嗎？

Third quarter will be very small single-digit revenue contribution.

第三季度的個位數收入貢獻將非常小。

16 nanometer, it's very little.

16納米，很小。

Okay.

好的。

I mean we started ramping when?

我的意思是我們什麼時候開始加速？

Three months, four months ago, last month.

三個月，四個月前，上個月。

And the process cycle is very long, Randy.

而且流程週期很長，蘭迪。

Okay.

好的。

It's months before we get the first finished wafer out.

我們要等幾個月才能把第一塊成品晶圓拿出來。

And some customers want us to do the bumping and all that stuff, and that takes longer and so it's a long time between first starting to ramp and the time you get even the first wafer out.

一些客戶希望我們做凸塊和所有這些事情，這需要更長的時間，所以從第一次開始斜坡到你得到第一個晶圓之間的時間很長。

So third quarter will be very little.

所以第三季度會很少。

Okay.

好的。

It sounds like you don't want to mention on fourth quarter.

聽起來你不想在第四季度提及。

I guess the other question I was going to ask on structural profitability where you were talking in the prepared remarks, do you still expect structural profitability to be in line to better, like you've kind of maintained that track record the last few years, if as you look out over next 12 months, you still have that trajectory?

我想我要問的另一個關於結構性盈利能力的問題是你在準備好的評論中所說的，你是否仍然期望結構性盈利能力會更好，就像你在過去幾年中保持的那樣，如果你展望未來 12 個月，你仍然有這樣的軌跡嗎？

Yes, the answer is yes.

是的，答案是肯定的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Good, all right.

很好，好吧。

There is a question coming to my BlackBerry from Arete's analyst Jaguar Bajwa.

Arete 的分析師 Jaguar Bajwa 向我的黑莓提出了一個問題。

His question is this, how does the strategy of quicker node transitions and the reuse of tools as we have seen in 20 nanometer to 16 nanometer affect the depreciation for new process nodes?

他的問題是，我們在 20 納米到 16 納米中看到的更快節點轉換和工具重用的策略如何影響新工藝節點的折舊？

And does this tool transition allow you to offer better ASPs to your customers?

這種工具轉換是否允許您為您的客戶提供更好的 ASP？

So quicker nodes transition, reuse of tools, whether this translates to better ASP to customers and how that affects depreciation?

如此快速的節點轉換，工具的重用，這是否會轉化為更好的 ASP 給客戶，以及這如何影響折舊？

Well, I can answer in a very general manner.

嗯，我可以很籠統地回答。

That is something making one generation's tools compatible with the next generation or vice versa.

這使得一代的工具與下一代兼容，反之亦然。

That has been a prime effort of TSMC R&D and TSMC operations in the last three or four years.

這是台積電研發和台積電運營在過去三四年裡的主要努力。

That of course started because the complexity of the process has increased and because we have adopted the faster cadence of the technology.

當然，這開始是因為過程的複雜性增加了，而且我們採用了更快的技術節奏。

Now I think the prime effort that this very big focus on reducing what we call internally, we call it the conversion loss.

現在我認為這個非常注重減少我們內部所說的主要努力，我們稱之為轉換損失。

Our effort in reducing the conversion loss has borne a lot of fruit.

我們在減少轉換損失方面所做的努力已經取得了很多成果。

And now in the ideal case, all the tools are compatible, but that's impossible now because when you advance, go from 16 to 10, you do need new equipment that's even now still being developed by our equipment partners such as supply, materials and so on.

現在在理想情況下，所有工具都是兼容的，但現在這是不可能的，因為當你從 16 升級到 10 時，你確實需要新設備，這些設備甚至現在仍在由我們的設備合作夥伴開發，例如供應、材料等上。

However we have been able to reduce the conversion loss to a very low level now.

但是，我們現在已經能夠將轉換損失降低到非常低的水平。

And I think from that you can start calculating depreciation and what not.

而且我認為您可以從中開始計算折舊等等。

You want to add anything to what I said?

你想在我所說的基礎上加點什麼嗎？

I can add some comments on this equipment migrations, just like Chairman said, the operation and R&D people made a tremendous effort trying to increase the migration rate.

我可以對這次設備遷移補充一些意見，就像主席所說的那樣，運營和研發人員為了提高遷移率付出了巨大的努力。

As far as we can see now from 20 to 16, 16 to 10, we can manage migration more than 95% of the tool can be reusable.

就我們現在看到的從 20 到 16、16 到 10 來說，我們可以管理遷移 95% 以上的工具都可以重用。

Okay, now there is another follow-up question sent over by Steven Pelayo at HSBC and his question is this.

好的，現在匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo 發送了另一個後續問題，他的問題是這個。

Since TSMC learned a lot at 20 nanometer, will a steeper ramp of 16 nanometers this year not impact gross margin too much, i.e.

由於台積電在 20 納米方面學到了很多東西，今年 16 納米的陡峭斜坡不會對毛利率造成太大影響，即

not much of a dilution or perhaps the faster learning will allow for higher starting 16 nanometer gross margin compared to 20 nanometer, whether 16 nanometer gross margin will be higher than 20 nanometers at the starting stage.

與 20 納米相比，16 納米的初始毛利率不會有太大的稀釋，或者更快的學習將允許更高的起始毛利率，無論 16 納米的毛利率在初始階段是否會高於 20 納米。

Yes, I think the answer is, we have learned a lot from 20 nanometer to benefit 16 nanometer and therefore as a result we expect 16 to be more profitable than 20 and we expect the yield learning curve to actually be a part of the 2016 total learning curve from -- and I think that's actually one of the advantages of a faster cadence.

是的，我認為答案是，我們從 20 納米中學到了很多東西，使 16 納米受益，因此我們預計 16 比 20 更有利可圖，我們預計產量學習曲線實際上是 2016 年總量的一部分學習曲線——我認為這實際上是更快節奏的優勢之一。

Okay, now we come back to the floor.

好的，現在我們回到地板上。

The question will be coming from UBS, Eric Chen.

問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Eric Chen。

Okay, thank you, my question, I probably have just one question and go to Dr. Wei.

好的，謝謝你，我的問題，我大概只有一個問題，去找魏醫生。

You talk about a 28-nanometer process and then you talk about HPC.

您談論的是 28 納米工藝，然後您談論的是 HPC。

And I would like to get a rough idea for your 28 nanometer process business, how many percent go through the HPC and how about HPC+ and going forward, what kind of expectation we should keep.

我想大致了解一下你們的 28 納米工藝業務，有多少百分比通過了 HPC，HPC+ 和未來如何，我們應該保持什麼樣的期望。

Chairman, I can answer.

主席，我可以回答。

Actually I cannot give you the exact number, but I can give you the taste on the tape-out.

其實我不能給你確切的數字，但我可以告訴你流片的味道。

Our 28 nanometers tape-out right now is higher than any quarter previously we announced and most of the tape-out are in 28 HPC and HPC+, so that gives you a hint of future business what is the percentages is there going to be.

我們現在的 28 納米流片比我們之前宣布的任何一個季度都要高，而且大部分流片是在 28 HPC 和 HPC+ 中，所以這讓您對未來的業務有所了解，這些百分比將會是多少。

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

So I don't get it, I mean for the HPC spending is lower than average of a 28 nanometer process business and given Lora just mentioned, for your low-end smartphone IC content value will increase slightly.

所以我不明白，我的意思是 HPC 支出低於 28 納米工藝業務的平均水平，鑑於 Lora 剛才提到的，你的低端智能手機 IC 內容價值會略有增加。

It doesn't match if HPC revenue keeps increase, I assume the low end smartphone IC content value should decline.

如果 HPC 收入持續增長，則不匹配，我認為低端智能手機 IC 內容價值應該會下降。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let me be more precise on the content.

讓我在內容上更準確。

I was talking about the high-end smartphone.

我說的是高端智能手機。

TSMC's revenue will go up.

台積電的收入會上升。

Actually the number is, this year is $17.80, next year $19.7, so it's $2 up, that's the high end.

實際上這個數字是，今年是 17.80 美元，明年是 19.7 美元，所以上漲了 2 美元，這就是高端。

The mid-end, $6 this year, $6.4 next year, slightly up.

中端，今年6美元，明年6.4美元，小幅上漲。

The low-end keep the same, $3.40 and next year will be the same.

低端保持不變，3.40美元和明年一樣。

Okay, so that's good.

好的，那很好。

And even other HPC the percentage will increase but will still keep at the low end, probably at the low end the ASP, right?

甚至其他 HPC 的百分比也會增加，但仍將保持在低端，可能在 ASP 的低端，對嗎？

Actually it's not only the smartphone using the HPC or HPC+, it's the second wave a lot of other products, they are using HPC and HPC+.

其實不僅是智能手機使用了HPC或者HPC+，第二波很多其他的產品，他們都在使用HPC和HPC+。

Got it, so we worry about the other foundry makers say the second tier foundry maker, they are more aggressive their wafer prices strategy at the 28-nanometer process, we would like to keep the overall the blended ASP.

明白了，所以我們擔心其他代工廠商說二線代工廠商，他們在 28 納米工藝上的晶圓價格策略更加激進，我們希望保持整體混合平均售價。

Well, Eric, maybe I can do a little bit clarification here.

好吧，埃里克，也許我可以在這裡做一點澄清。

When Lora talk about mid-end, low-end smartphone content, it is not just from one geometry, it has many silicons inside and that's an average price.

當 Lora 談到中端、低端智能手機內容時，它不僅來自一種幾何形狀，它內部有許多矽片，而且這是一個平均價格。

HPC or HPC+ is only adopted by certain applications in those boxes and they are not the whole thing.

HPC 或 HPC+ 僅被這些盒子中的某些應用程序採用，它們並不是全部。

So that's more like product mix from 40 to 28 nanometer.

所以這更像是 40 到 28 納米的產品組合。

The overall silicon content of the smartphones doesn't matter it's a low end or mid end or high end, those contents are increasing because of complexity and functionality.

智能手機的整體矽含量並不重要，它是低端、中端或高端，由於復雜性和功能性，這些含量正在增加。

Or at least ours.

或者至少是我們的。

Ours is increasing.

我們的正在增加。

Content is increasing yes.

內容正在增加是的。

Thank you very much Lora, Dr. Wei, and Dr. Sun.

非常感謝 Lora、Wei 博士和 Sun 博士。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So I think it's about time that we should end our conference here and thank you very much for coming over.

所以我認為是時候在這裡結束我們的會議了，非常感謝大家的光臨。

Before we conclude the conference, please be advised that the replay will be accessible within three hours from now, transcript will be available 24 hours from now.

在我們結束會議之前，請注意，回放將在三小時後提供，成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

And those are all available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

這些都可以通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

So thank you for coming.

所以謝謝你的到來。

Hope to join us again next quarter.

希望下個季度再次加入我們。