台積電 ADR (TSM) 2014 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2014 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2014 年第三季財報會議和電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the third quarter, followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們第三季的營運情況，然後是我們對本季的指導。

Afterwards, Lora and TSMC's two co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide our key messages.

隨後，Lora 和台積電的兩位聯席執行長 Mark Liu 博士和 C.C.魏先生將共同提供我們的關鍵資訊。

Then we will open both the floor and the lines for the Q&A.

然後我們將開放問答環節。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now, I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO Ms. Lora Ho for the summary of our operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士總結我們的營運和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I will start my presentation with financial highlights for the third quarter and followed by the guidance for the fourth quarter.

我將首先介紹第三季的財務亮點，然後介紹第四季度的指導。

We had a good quarter.

我們度過了一個美好的季度。

The third quarter we have set a new record of revenue and profitability, thanks to strong demand and our successful ramp of 20-nanometer.

由於強勁的需求和 20 奈米製程的成功提升，第三季我們的營收和獲利能力創下了新紀錄。

Our revenue increased 14% sequentially and 29% on year-over-year basis to reach TWD209b.

我們的營收季增 14%，年增 29%，達到新台幣 209b。

Our gross margin exceeded 50% to reach 50.5% which is also a record since the second half of 2006.

毛利率突破50%，達到50.5%，也是2006年下半年以來的最高紀錄。

Compared with second quarter, gross margin improved 0.7 percentage point.

與第二季相比，毛利率提高了0.7個百分點。

The higher margin was contributed by consistent cost improvement, favorable inventory valuation adjustment, partially offset by 20-nanometer dilution as we are still in early stage of the production.

較高的利潤率得益於持續的成本改善、有利的庫存估值調整，但部分被 20 奈米稀釋所抵消，因為我們仍處於生產的早期階段。

Operating margin was 40.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the second quarter, reflecting an improving operating efficiency for the Company.

營業利益率為40.4%，較第二季上升1.8個百分點，反映公司經營效率不斷提升。

After a big jump in tax rate in the second quarter, due to accruals of 10% retained earning tax, in the third quarter the effective tax rate fell back to normal level of about 11% of profit before tax versus the 20% in the second quarter.

After a big jump in tax rate in the second quarter, due to accruals of 10% retained earning tax, in the third quarter the effective tax rate fell back to normal level of about 11% of profit before tax versus the 20% in the second四分之一.

Overall, the third quarter EPS increased 47% sequentially to TWD2.94.

整體而言，第三季 EPS 季增 47%，至新台幣 2.94 元。

The single quarter ROE was 33.3%.

單季ROE為33.3%。

Let's take a look at revenue by application.

讓我們來看看按應用劃分的收入。

Compared to the second quarter, communications showed the strongest growth.

與第二季度相比，通訊領域表現出最強勁的成長。

Revenue increased by 26%.

收入增長了 26%。

Industrial-related revenue also increased 9% while computer and consumer declined 6% and 3% during the third quarter.

第三季工業相關收入也成長了 9%，而電腦和消費相關收入則分別下降了 6% 和 3%。

By technology, after two years of meticulous preparation we began volume shipments of 20-nanometer wafers.

從技術上來說，經過兩年的精心準備，我們開始批量出貨20奈米晶圓。

The revenue contribution went up from 0% to 9% of the third quarter wafer revenue.

第三季晶圓營收的營收貢獻從0%上升至9%。

This is the fastest and the most successful ramp for a new technology in TSMC's history.

這是台積電史上最快、最成功的新技術升級。

In addition, customer demand for 28-nanometer wafers continued to be strong.

此外，客戶對28奈米晶圓的需求持續強勁。

Our 28-nanometer wafer revenue continued to grow sequentially in the third quarter, representing 34% of total wafer revenue.

第三季我們的28奈米晶圓營收持續較上季成長，佔晶圓總營收的34%。

Accordingly the two advanced technologies, 20-nanometer plus 28-nanometer, represented 43% of our third quarter total wafer revenue, increased from 37% a quarter ago.

因此，20奈米和28奈米這兩種先進技術占我們第三季晶圓總收入的43%，比上一季的37%增加。

Now let's move on to the balance sheet.

現在讓我們來看看資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of -- TWD290b.

第三季結束時，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 290b。

Current liabilities decreased by TWD74b, mainly due to we paid out the TWD78b of cash dividend in August.

流動負債減少新台幣74b，主要是8月派發現金股利新台幣78b所致。

On the financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days is 44 days which is the normal level of our average days of receivables.

從財務比率來看，應收帳款週轉天數為44天，屬於我們平均應收帳款週轉天數的正常水準。

Days of inventory increased 5 days to 56 days, mainly due to higher work-in-process inventories associated with the fast ramp and the longer cycle time for 20-nanometer.

庫存天數增加了 5 天，達到 56 天，主要是由於與快速產能提升相關的在製品庫存增加以及 20 奈米製程週期時間較長。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the third quarter we generated TWD91b of cash from operations, invested TWD48b in capital expenditure and paid out TWD78b in cash dividend.

第三季度，我們從營運中產生了 TWD91b 的現金，投資了 TWD48b 的資本支出，並支付了 TWD78b 的現金股利。

At the end of the third quarter, our cash balance decreased TWD29b to TWD226b (corrected by company after the call).

第三季末，我們的現金餘額減少了 TWD29b 至 TWD226b（公司在電話會議後更正）。

Free cash flow for the third quarter was an inflow of TWD43b, a big improvement versus previous quarters.

第三季自由現金流流入新台幣43b，比前幾季有很大改善。

In US dollars, our [third] (corrected by company after the call) quarter CapEx was $1.6b.

以美元計算，我們的[第三]（在電話會議後由公司更正）季度資本支出為 1.6b 美元。

This adds to the total of $7.8b for the first three quarters.

這使得前三個季度的總收入增加了 7.8b 美元。

Regarding our capacity, we expect to increase our capacity by 12% from last year.

關於我們的產能，我們預計產能將比去年增加 12%。

Total annual capacity will reach 8.2m 12-inch equivalent wafers this year, slightly higher than our previous estimate of 8.1m.

今年總產能將達到 820 萬片 12 吋等效晶圓，略高於我們先前預測的 810 萬片。

I have finished my report on the financial part.

我已經完成了財務部分的報告。

Now let me turn into the fourth quarter outlook.

現在讓我談談第四季的展望。

Based on our current business outlook and the forecast exchange rate of TWD30.31 (corrected by company after the call), we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between TWD217b and TWD220b.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 TWD30.31 的預測匯率（公司在電話會議後更正），我們預計第四季度的收入將在 TWD217b 至 TWD220b 之間。

This would translate into around 4% to 5% quarter-over-quarter increase.

這將意味著季度環比增長約 4% 至 5%。

On the margin side, we expect the fourth quarter gross margins to be between 48% and 50% and operating margins to be between 38% and 40%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第四季毛利率將在 48% 至 50% 之間，營業利潤率將在 38% 至 40% 之間。

You may ask why we guide slightly lower margin rate despite 4% to 5% revenue growth.

您可能會問，儘管收入增長了 4% 至 5%，但為什麼我們指導的利潤率略低。

This is because we will continue to ramp our 20-nanometer to more than 20% of our wafer revenues in the fourth quarter.

這是因為我們將繼續將 20 奈米技術提高到第四季晶圓收入的 20% 以上。

We expect to see a mild margin dilution with our aggressive productivity improvement efforts.

我們預計，隨著我們積極提高生產力的努力，利潤率將出現輕微稀釋。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Now we will deliver our key messages.

現在我們將傳達我們的關鍵訊息。

They will be offered by our CFO as well as by the two Presidents and co-CEOs.

它們將由我們的財務長以及兩位總裁和聯合執行長提供。

We will start with CFO Lora Ho first.

我們首先從財務長 Lora Ho 開始。

I will talk about three items, the CapEx, free cash flow and supply chain inventory.

我將討論三個項目：資本支出、自由現金流和供應鏈庫存。

Let me start with CapEx.

讓我從資本支出開始。

In January of this year we guided TSMC's 2014 CapEx budget to be between $9.5b to $10b.

今年 1 月，我們指導台積電 2014 年資本支出預算在 9.5 億美元至 10 億美元之間。

Today, we are able to provide a more specific number which is about $9.6b.

今天，我們能夠提供更具體的數字，約為 $9.6b。

Majority of this year's CapEx budget is spent for 20-nanometer expansion.

今年資本支出預算的大部分用於 20 奈米擴展。

In 2015 we will continue our investment in 16-nanometer capacity installation and 10-nanometer engineering capacity.

2015年我們將持續對16奈米產能安裝和10奈米工程產能進行投資。

Based on our current plan for 2015, our CapEx budget for the next year is likely to be slightly higher than $10b.

根據我們目前 2015 年的計劃，我們明年的資本支出預算可能略高於 100 億美元。

On free cash flow outlook, you may recall in the past four years TSMC has increased CapEx substantially to capture the growth opportunity brought by the mobile computing devices.

在自由現金流前景方面，您可能還記得，台積電在過去四年中大幅增加了資本支出，以抓住行動運算設備帶來的成長機會。

As a result, our free cash flow dropped to about $1b to $2b per year which were below the cash dividend we paid.

結果，我們的自由現金流降至每年約 10 億至 20 億美元，低於我們支付的現金股利。

The cash dividend, TWD3 cash dividend, is about $2.6b a year.

現金股息，TWD3現金股息，每年約$2.6b。

However, with the substantial increase in operating cash flow this year and a similar level of capital expenditure compared to last year, we expect to more than double our free cash flow in 2014 (corrected by company after the call).

然而，由於今年營運現金流量大幅增加，且資本支出水準與去年相似，我們預計 2014 年自由現金流量將增加一倍以上（由公司在電話會議後修正）。

And we are confident that the free cash flow level will rise further in the foreseeable future.

我們有信心在可預見的未來自由現金流水準將進一步上升。

The sustainably higher free cash flow should enable TSMC to afford paying a higher level of dividend per share going forward.

持續較高的自由現金流應該使台積電能夠承擔未來支付更高水準的每股股利。

The Board of Directors will consider increase in cash dividend in February of next year.

董事會將於明年2月考慮增加現金分紅。

Now, regarding the supply chain inventory, we have noted in our last quarterly conference that we estimate fabless DOI would increase and be 2 days above seasonal at the end of third quarter and then fabless DOI would decrease and be 2 days below seasonal level at the end of this year.

現在，關於供應鏈庫存，我們在上一季度會議上指出，我們估計無晶圓廠DOI 將增加，並在第三季末比季節性水平高2 天，然後無晶圓廠DOI 將減少，並在第三季末比季節性低2 天。

Our data and model for the forecast still warrants the same estimate today.

我們的預測數據和模型今天仍然保證相同的估計。

You can see from this chart, we estimate 4Q, 2014 fabless DOI will be 2 days below seasonal.

從這張圖表中可以看出，我們預計 2014 年第 4 季無晶圓廠 DOI 將比季節性低 2 天。

But compared with 4Q, 2013 last year which is one year ago, the fabless DOI was 6 days below seasonal.

但與一年前的去年2013年第四季相比，無晶圓廠DOI比季節性低了6天。

Based on our model, we anticipate a much milder inventory correction in fourth quarter this year.

根據我們的模型，我們預計今年第四季的庫存調整會溫和得多。

With that, I will turn the podium to Mark who will share with you our view on the near-term demand.

接下來，我將把講台轉向馬克，他將與您分享我們對近期需求的看法。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I will continue to cover the near-term demand.

我將繼續報道近期需求。

The strong demand of our 20 SOC customers enabled our continued growth in the fourth quarter, overcoming our seasonal demand pattern of a sequentially weaker fourth quarter and the cautious inventory adjustment actions taken by some of our customers, rendering the slower 4Q demand.

20家SOC客戶的強勁需求使我們在第四季度持續成長，克服了第四季度連續疲軟的季節性需求模式以及一些客戶採取的謹慎庫存調整行動，導致第四季度需求放緩。

This fourth quarter demand from our customers does not validate the recent forecast by Microchip.

我們客戶的第四季需求並未驗證 Microchip 最近的預測。

Our recent demand in China still appears normal, little deviation from their seasonal pattern.

我們最近在中國的需求仍然顯得正常，與季節性模式幾乎沒有偏差。

And we see China's 4G smartphone sales and infrastructure buildup remains to be very aggressive.

我們看到中國的 4G 智慧型手機銷售和基礎設施建設仍然非常積極。

So we are expecting another record-breaking quarter with a 4% to 5% growth in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計第四季將再創歷史新高，成長 4% 至 5%。

On 10-nanometer development, our 10-nanometer development is progressing according to plan.

關於10奈米開發，我們的10奈米開發正在按計劃進行。

Currently we are working on early customer collaboration for product tape-outs in 4Q of 2015.

目前，我們正在努力與客戶進行早期合作，以便在 2015 年第四季實現產品流片。

The risk production date remain targeted at the end of 2015.

風險生產日期仍定為2015年底。

Our goal is to enable our customers' production in 2016.

我們的目標是讓客戶在 2016 年實現生產。

To meet this goal, we are getting our 10-nanometer design ecosystem ready now.

為了實現這一目標，我們現在正在準備 10 奈米設計生態系統。

We have completed certification of over 35 EDA tools using ARM's CPU core as the vehicle.

我們已經完成了超過 35 個使用 ARM CPU 核心作為載體的 EDA 工具的認證。

In addition, we have started the IP validation process six months earlier than previous nodes with our IP partners.

此外，我們與 IP 合作夥伴比之前的節點提前了六個月開始 IP 驗證流程。

We are working with over 10 customers on their 10-nanometer product design.

我們正在與 10 多家客戶合作進行 10 奈米產品設計。

The product plans show wide range of applications, including application processors, baseband, CPU, server, graphics, network processor, FPGA and game console.

產品計劃展示了廣泛的應用，包括應用處理器、基頻、CPU、伺服器、圖形、網路處理器、FPGA和遊戲機。

Our 10-nanometer will achieve industry-leading speed, power and gate density.

我們的 10 奈米將實現業界領先的速度、功率和門密度。

Then I'll cover the -- say a few words -- I'll clarify next growth momentum of TSMC.

然後我會講幾句話，我會澄清台積電的下一個成長動力。

We think the growth of smartphone and tablet in propelling our revenue growth will continue for at least several years.

我們認為智慧型手機和平板電腦的成長將繼續推動我們的收入成長至少幾年。

In addition, the recent innovations in wearable devices, including smartwatch, in cloud computing, in fog computing, in Internet of Things, including smartcar, smarthomes, all are very exciting.

此外，最近在可穿戴設備，包括智慧手錶，雲端運算，霧運算，物聯網，包括智慧汽車，智慧家庭的創新都非常令人興奮。

And we are currently closely working with our customers on all these applications to set the stage of the next growth wave to move us forward.

目前，我們正在與客戶就所有這些應用程式密切合作，為下一波成長浪潮奠定基礎，推動我們前進。

That's my comment.

這是我的評論。

Now I turn the microphone to C.C.

現在我將麥克風轉向 C.C.

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

This afternoon I will update you the 20-nanometer ramp-up status followed by 16-nanometer's progress and 28-nanometer's status.

今天下午，我將向您更新 20 奈米的加速狀態，然後是 16 奈米的進展和 28 奈米的狀態。

First the 20-nanometer ramp status.

首先是 20 奈米斜坡狀態。

We shipped 20-nanometer in high volume during third quarter.

我們在第三季大量出貨 20 奈米。

The yield is meeting our target.

產量達到了我們的目標。

Revenue generated from 20-nanometer accounted for 9% of third quarter wafer revenue.

20奈米營收佔第三季晶圓營收的9%。

And because of the strong demand from the high-end 4G smartphones, which are equipped with 64-bit cores, the LTE Cat 6 or Cat 7, and more advanced graphic and video performance, our 20-nanometer will continue to grow.

由於配備 64 位元核心、LTE Cat 6 或 Cat 7 以及更先進的圖形和視訊性能的高階 4G 智慧型手機的強勁需求，我們的 20 奈米將繼續成長。

And we expect it to contribute greater than 20% wafer revenue in fourth quarter.

我們預計其第四季將貢獻超過 20% 的晶圓收入。

We expect the strength of our 20-nanometer business to continue in year 2015.

我們預計 20 奈米業務將在 2015 年繼續保持強勁勢頭。

And we expect the revenue will account for roughly 20% of next year in wafer revenue.

我們預計該收入將佔明年晶圓收入的 20% 左右。

Next, I'll talk about the 16-nanometer ramp and competitive status.

接下來我會談談16奈米的進展和競爭狀況。

In 16-nanometer, we have two versions, 16 FinFET and the 16 FinFET Plus.

在 16 奈米製程中，我們有兩個版本：16 FinFET 和 16 FinFET Plus。

FinFET Plus has better performance and has been adopted by most of our customers.

FinFET Plus 具有更好的性能，已被我們大多數客戶採用。

16 FinFET we began the risk production in November last year and since then have passed all the reliability qual early this year.

16 FinFET 我們在去年 11 月開始風險生產，從那時起，今年年初就通過了所有可靠性品質。

For the FinFET Plus, we also passed the first stage of the qualification on October 7 and since then entered the risk production.

對於FinFET Plus，我們也在10月7日通過了第一階段的資格認證，從此進入風險生產。

The full qualification, including the technology and product qual, is expected to be completed next month.

包括技術和產品品質在內的全部資格預計將於下個月完成。

So right now we have more than 1,000 engineers working on ramp up for the FinFET Plus.

目前，我們有 1,000 多名工程師致力於 FinFET Plus 的升級工作。

On the yield learning side, the progress is much better than our original plan.

在yield Learning方面，進度比我們原來的計畫好很多。

This is because the 16-nanometer uses similar process to 20 SOC, except for the transistor.

這是因為16奈米採用與20 SOC類似的工藝，除了電晶體之外。

And since 20 SOC has been in mass production with a good yield, our 16 FinFET can leverage the yield learning from 20 SOC and enjoy a good and smooth progress.

由於20 SOC已經量產並具有良好的良率，我們的16 FinFET可以利用從20 SOC學習的良率並享受良好且順利的進展。

So we are happy to say that 16-nanometer has achieved the best technology maturity at the same corresponding stage as compared to all TSMC's previous nodes.

因此，我們很高興地說，與台積電之前的所有節點相比，16奈米已經在同一相應階段實現了最佳的技術成熟度。

In addition to the process technologies, our 16 FinFET design ecosystem is ready also.

除了製程技術之外，我們的 16 FinFET 設計生態系統也已準備就緒。

It supports 43 EDA tools and greater than 700 process design kits with more than 100 IPs.

它支援 43 種 EDA 工具和超過 700 個製程設計套件以及 100 多個 IP。

All these are silicon validated.

所有這些都經過矽驗證。

We believe this is the biggest ecosystem in the industry today.

我們相信這是當今業界最大的生態系統。

On the performance side, compared with the 20 SOC, 16 FinFET is greater than 40% speed faster than the 20 SOC at the same total power or consumes less than 50% power at the same speed.

效能方面，與20 SOC相比，16 FinFET在相同總功率下比20 SOC速度快40%以上，或在相同速度下功耗低於50%。

So our data shows that in high-speed applications it can run up to 2.3 gigahertz.

因此我們的數據表明，在高速應用中它的運行頻率最高可達 2.3 GHz。

Or on the other hand, for low-power applications it consumes as low as 75 miniwatts per core.

另一方面，對於低功耗應用，每個核心的功耗低至 75 微瓦。

This kind of a performance will give our customer a lot of flexibility to optimize their design for different market applications.

這種性能將為我們的客戶提供很大的靈活性，以針對不同的市場應用優化其設計。

So far we expect to have close to 60 tape-outs by the end of next year.

到目前為止，我們預計到明年年底將有近 60 個流片。

In summary, because of the excellent progress in yield learning and readiness in manufacturing maturity and also to meet customers' demand, we plan to pull in 16-nanometer volume production through the end of Q2 next year or early Q3 year 2015.

總而言之，由於在良率學習和製造成熟度方面的準備工作取得了良好進展，同時為了滿足客戶的需求，我們計劃在明年第二季末或2015年第三季初拉動16奈米的量產。

The yield performance and smooth progress of our 16 FinFET, FinFET Plus further validate our strategy of starting 20 SOC first, quickly follow with the 16 FinFET and FinFET Plus.

我們的 16 FinFET、FinFET Plus 的良率表現和順利進展進一步驗證了我們先啟動 20 SOC，然後快速跟進 16 FinFET 和 FinFET Plus 的策略。

We chose this sequence to maximize our market share in the 20-, 16-nanometer generation.

我們選擇這個序列是為了最大限度地擴大我們在 20 奈米、16 奈米世代的市場份額。

And I would like to repeat our Chairman stated last time, in combined 20- and 16-nanometer, TSMC will have an overwhelming leading share every year from year 2014.

我想重複我們董事長上次說過的，在20奈米和16奈米加在一起，台積電從2014年開始每年都會佔據壓倒性的領先份額。

In total foundry market share, TSMC will lead several percentage points in 2014.

在整體晶圓代工市佔率中，台積電將在 2014 年領先幾個百分點。

He also said that he's happy to add that this trend, increasing the market share, will continue in year 2015.

他還表示，他很高興地補充說，這種增加市場份額的趨勢將在 2015 年繼續下去。

Next, I'll talk about 28-nanometer status.

接下來講一下28奈米的現況。

We had strong growth in second quarter on 28-nanometer.

第二季 28 奈米技術成長強勁。

And the business grew another quarter and accounted for 34% of TSMC's wafer revenue in third quarter.

該業務再季成長，佔台積電第三季晶圓營收的34%。

On the technology side, we continue our effort to improve yield and tighten the process corners, so that our customer can take advantage of these activities and shrink their die size and therefore reduce the cost.

在技​​術方面，我們繼續努力提高產量並收緊製程角點，以便我們的客戶可以利用這些活動並縮小晶片尺寸，從而降低成本。

Let me give you an example.

讓我舉一個例子。

On 28LP, the polysilicon gate version, we now offer a variety of enhanced processes to achieve better performance.

在28LP（多晶矽閘極版本）上，我們現在提供各種增強製程以實現更好的性能。

We also offer a very competitive cost so that our customers can address the mid- to low-end smartphone market.

我們也提供極具競爭力的成本，以便我們的客戶能夠應對中低階智慧型手機市場。

In addition to the 28LP, we also provide a cost-effective high-K metal gate version, the 28HPC for customers to further optimize the performance and the cost.

除了28LP之外，我們還提供高性價比的高K金屬柵版本28HPC，供客戶進一步優化性能和成本。

Recently, we added another 28-nanometer offering we called 28 Ultra Low Power, for ultra low power applications obviously.

最近，我們添加了另一種 28 奈米產品，稱為 28 超低功耗，顯然適用於超低功耗應用。

We believe this 28ULP will help TSMC customers to expand their business into the IoT area.

我們相信這款28ULP將有助於台積電客戶將業務擴展到物聯網領域。

In summary, we expect our technology span in 28-nanometer node will enhance TSMC's competitiveness and ensure a good market share.

綜上所述，我們預期我們在28奈米節點的技術跨度將增強台積電的競爭力並確保良好的市場份額。

We also expect the strength of the demand for our 28-nanometer will continue for multi years to come.

我們也預計，對 28 奈米的需求將在未來多年持續強勁。

In response, we are preparing sufficient capacities to meet our customers' future demand.

為此，我們正在準備足夠的產能來滿足客戶未來的需求。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time, to allow all participants an opportunity to ask their questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將問題限制在兩個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將從現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your questions.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the floor, of Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First question, you mentioned you're pulling mass production by end of Q2 next year or early Q3.

第一個問題，您提到您將在明年第二季末或第三季初實現大規模生產。

Does that imply you will have earlier schedule than you planned before?

這是否意味著您的日程安排會比之前計劃的要早？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is do you have any comment for your market share for next year in 16-, 14-nanometer.

第二個問題是您對明年16、14奈米的市佔率有何評論？

Very hard for me to comment on the whole market share but if there's any indication, I would say that we narrow the gap with our competitor.

我很難評論整個市場份額，但如果有任何跡象的話，我會說我們縮小了與競爭對手的差距。

Okay.

好的。

So you mean your view now is more positive than three months ago.

所以你的意思是你現在的看法比三個月前更正面。

Can we say that?

我們可以這麼說嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Next question still comes from the floor.

下一個問題仍然來自會場。

It will be from Nomura's -- sorry Daiwa -- musical chairs -- Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

它將來自野村證券的——對不起大和——音樂椅——大和的Rick Hsu。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

It's been a while so, well, so C.C., Mark, Lora, Elizabeth.

已經有一段時間了，好吧，C.C.、馬克、洛拉、伊麗莎白。

[Spoken in Chinese] Sorry, in English.

[中文] 抱歉，用英文。

The first question is about your 20-nanometer ramp up.

第一個問題是關於 20 奈米的升級。

I think it's been progressing quite well and as Lora said it's gonna be around 20% by the end of Q4.

我認為進展非常順利，正如 Lora 所說，到第四季末將達到 20% 左右。

So I wonder if by that level, 20% at the end of Q4 in terms of revenue, would that reach your corporate average margin?

所以我想知道，按照第四季末營收 20% 的水平，這是否會達到你們公司的平均利潤率？

No, it will not.

不，不會的。

We have talked about this several times.

我們已經多次討論過這個問題。

Any new leading-edge technology would take seven to eight quarters to reach corporate average.

任何新的尖端技術都需要七到八個季度才能達到企業平均水準。

So if you count the 20-nanometer ramp starting from third quarter shipment starts it's by mid-2016 you will get to corporate level profitability.

因此，如果算上從第三季開始出貨的 20 奈米工藝，那麼到 2016 年中期，您將達到企業水準的獲利能力。

All right.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

So that would be the same for 16-nanometer I assume right, in terms of progress?

那麼就進展而言，我認為 16 奈米也是一樣的嗎？

Yes, we count the 20 and 16 as one node in terms of ramping and scheduled capacity and so on and so forth.

是的，我們將 20 號和 16 號節點視為一個節點，包括容量提升和計畫容量等等。

This doesn't count as a second question, does it?

這不算是第二個問題，不是嗎？

All right, you can have a second question, yes.

好吧，你可以問第二個問題，是的。

Right, okay.

對了，好吧。

So the second question is more about a picture of your of China competition.

所以第二個問題更多的是關於你的中國比賽的情況。

I think recently we had observed quite a lot of moves inside China, including privatization of RDA or Spreadtrum.

我想最近我們觀察到中國國內有很多動作，包括銳迪科或展訊的私有化。

And OmniVision could be another target to shoot for.

豪威科技可能是另一個值得追求的目標。

Also, your competitor UMC last week announced that they're going to set up a 12-inch joint venture with the local government.

另外，你的競爭對手聯華電子上週宣布，他們將與地方政府成立12吋合資公司。

So I think my feeling is these guys seem to be aiming for the next growth potential market which is IoT.

所以我認為我的感覺是這些人似乎瞄準了下一個成長潛力市場，即物聯網。

And by taking the leverage of the huge demand market in China, number one, and also the very favorable Chinese government policies in favor of the local production, so my feeling is -- will you worry about this potential competition in the longer term because you only operate an 8-inch fab in China.

透過利用中國巨大的需求市場，第一，以及中國政府有利於本地生產的非常有利的政策，所以我的感覺是——從長遠來看，你會擔心這種潛在的競爭嗎？一座8吋晶圓廠。

Or do you have any strategy to cope with this potential threat from China in the next couple of years?

或者您有什麼策略來應對未來幾年來自中國的潛在威脅？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, this is a complicated question.

好吧，這是一個複雜的問題。

Let me put this question to two parts.

讓我把這個問題分成兩個部分。

One is the China government's subsidy effects; secondly is the IoT opportunities.

一是中國政府的補貼效應；其次是物聯網機會。

On China government's subsidy, the recent announcement about RMB1,200b subsidy, that's caused a lot of activities across the industry.

在中國政府的補貼方面，最近宣布了1200億人民幣的補貼，引起了整個產業的大量活動。

For us, we think currently we have very strong penetration on our Chinese -- China design houses; many of them over 80%.

對我們來說，我們認為目前我們對中國的設計公司有很強的滲透力；其中很多都超過80%。

And they are -- most of them are clinging towards leading-edge.

他們中的大多數人都在緊抓前沿。

And with this subsidy, they will be more aggressive.

而有了這個補貼，他們就會更激進。

And we think that is -- we will be ready to capture the business, given the existing good penetration.

我們認為，鑑於現有的良好滲透率，我們將準備好佔領該業務。

And this subsidy may also pro -- bring into a merger position because China government wants the small company bringing into big, to be more competitive.

這種補貼也可能有利於合併，因為中國政府希望小公司變成大公司，進而更具競爭力。

And I do think that is a healthy development for the industry, with the bigger, stronger design houses to compete with.

我確實認為這對這個行業來說是一個健康的發展，可以與更大、更強的設計公司競爭。

Of course, there will be downsides because on the back of the subsidy maybe some of the companies will under the influence of using local foundries and capacities and that is a threat; may I put it this way.

當然，也會有不利的一面，因為在補貼的支持下，一些公司可能會受到使用當地代工廠和產能的影響，這是一個威脅；我可以這麼說嗎？

So -- but putting us -- putting this positive and negative factor together, so long as we have technology leadership, so long as we have a strong manufacturing, so long as we have a good service, customer service, we think our business opportunity in China will grow, will be bigger with this development.

所以——但是把我們——把這個積極和消極的因素放在一起，只要我們有技術領先，只要我們有強大的製造，只要我們有良好的服務、客戶服務，我們認為我們的商機隨著這種發展，中國將會成長、變得更大。

On the IoT, IoT, indeed IoT has been anticipated by many companies including us.

關於物聯網，物聯網，確實物聯網已經被包括我們在內的許多企業所期待。

For us, we have -- we are currently actively developing IoT-related technologies, okay, and including sensors, including processors, including wireless connectivity, advanced packaging.

對我們來說，我們目前正在積極開發物聯網相關技術，包括感測器、處理器、無線連接、先進封裝。

And all -- power management IC are included -- all we're striving for ultra low power; in the power, technology to provide a lower power design.

所有——包括電源管理IC——我們都在努力實現超低功耗；在功耗方面，技術提供了更低功耗的設計。

On the capacity, yes, we are increasing our mature technology capacities today.

在能力方面，是的，我們今天正在提高我們成熟的技術能力。

And we will continue to expand the mature technology capacity, deviating from our past strategy, increasing those capacity to capture the potential growth of demand.

我們將繼續擴大成熟的技術產能，偏離我們過去的策略，增加這些產能以捕捉潛在的需求成長。

In terms of -- further new fab, we don't exclude any possibility, including the fab in China.

就進一步新建晶圓廠而言，我們不排除任何可能性，包括中國的晶圓廠。

Okay?

好的？

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

All right.

好的。

Next question will also be coming from the floor.

下一個問題也將來自現場。

It will be from Bank of America - Merrill Lynch's Dan Heyler.

它將來自美國銀行 - 美林證券的丹海勒。

Thanks Elizabeth, thanks.

謝謝伊麗莎白，謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

So a couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

So as you're expanding your capacity in mature technologies for the IoTs and MEMS and NFC and a whole range of things, and you're expanding your advanced technology, TSMC has held a dominant position in 28-nanometer for almost four years and 28-nanometer accounts for 34% of revenue now.

因此，當您正在擴大物聯網、MEMS 和 NFC 等成熟技術的產能時，並且您正在擴展您的先進技術時，台積電在 28 奈米領域已佔據主導地位近四年和 28 年。的34%。

As your key customers are moving to 28 and 16 and competition is obviously heating up as well, I'm wondering what steps you guys are taking to keep your 28-nanometer fabs fully utilized?

隨著您的主要客戶轉向 28 奈米和 16 奈米，競爭也明顯加劇，我想知道您們正在採取哪些措施來保持 28 奈米晶圓廠的充分利用？

You talked about HPC as a cost-down version.

您談到 HPC 是一種降低成本的版本。

Would this be a potential headwind to keep those fabs full in 2015 and if so are you able to address the competition as well?

這是否會成為使這些晶圓廠在 2015 年保持滿載運轉的潛在阻力？

Thanks.

謝謝。

We believe the demand on 28-nanometer will continue as I stated in my statement.

正如我在聲明中所說，我們相信對 28 奈米的需求將會持續下去。

From where?

從哪裡？

From where?

從哪裡？

Okay.

好的。

All the mobile devices and IoT and a lot of applications.

所有行動裝置和物聯網以及大量應用程式。

Actually the 28-nanometer today we find out is a very cost-effective technology.

實際上我們今天發現的28奈米是一個非常具有成本效益的技術。

This is the last node that you enter into the 2P2E, the double etch, double patterning.

這是進入 2P2E（雙蝕刻、雙圖案化）的最後一個節點。

And so its application is very -- been widely adopted.

因此它的應用非常廣泛。

So we expect that the demand for the next few years, or actually for a long time, it will continue to increase.

所以我們預計未來幾年，或者實際上很長一段時間內，需求將會持續增加。

And a lot of companies will take the advantage of the cost-effective and the performance also.

許多公司也會利用成本效益和性能的優勢。

So as we said, we are -- you said from where?

正如我們所說，我們──你說從哪裡來？

It's from the application side.

這是從應用程式方面來說的。

Application side also all the mobile devices and all the consumer, even on the industrial part we can find some applications.

應用方面還有所有的行動裝置和所有的消費者，甚至在工業部分我們也可以找到一些應用。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And I presume you intend to hold market share?

我猜你打算保持市場佔有率？

Do you need to hold the current market share in order to prevent a falling utilization?

您是否需要保持當前的市場份額以防止利用率下降？

You bet.

你打賭。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then the second question is with regard to 20-nanometer margins; I guess for Lora.

第二個問題是關於20奈米的邊緣；我想是為了洛拉。

So since 20 will be over 20% of revenue in the fourth quarter and your guidance is for 20 to be about 20% contribution for all of next year, so that implies pretty much flat.

因此，由於 20 將佔第四季度收入的 20% 以上，而您的指導方針是 20 對明年全年的貢獻約為 20%，因此這意味著幾乎持平。

How do you achieve margin expansion on flat revenue?

如何在收入不變的情況下獲利成長？

Dan, fourth quarter 20% is not equal to whole year 20%.

但第四季20%不等於全年20%。

So it's increased quite significantly, number one.

所以它的成長相當顯著，第一。

For the whole year 2015 20% is a big number.

對於2015年全年來說，20%是一個很大的數字。

How do we hold the profitability?

我們如何保持獲利能力？

I would say today's 20/16 profitability is acceptable.

我想說今天 20/16 的獲利能力是可以接受的。

I won't say it's great, but it is acceptable.

我不會說這很好，但可以接受。

And we will continue to work on it as we have done for other nodes in the past.

我們將像過去對其他節點所做的那樣繼續努力。

And the margin will gradually improve as we have more volume coming on the line.

隨著我們的生產量增加，利潤率將逐漸提高。

So I'm still staying what I said and we believe we can achieve corporate level margins in eight quarter timeframe, 2016.

因此，我仍然堅持我所說的，我們相信我們可以在 2016 年八個季度的時間內實現公司水準的利潤率。

Yes.

是的。

My question was just specific on 28 margins, so yes.

我的問題只是針對 28 頁邊距，所以是的。

So will additional customers coming into 28 because you previously said you felt this was going to be a major node, so is part of this margin expansion or margin improvement a function of different, more products coming in that will help margin?

那麼，更多客戶是否會進入28，因為您之前說過，您認為這將是一個主要節點，那麼這種利潤率擴張或利潤率提高的一部分是否是不同的、更多產品的出現，這將有助於提高利潤率？

Or is it more internal efficiencies and getting smarter and better about how you're doing things?

還是內部效率更高、做事方式變得更聰明、更好？

Both.

兩個都。

The -- our 28-nanometer currently 80% of them are high-K metal gate and 20% of them, roughly about, 28LP.

我們的 28 奈米目前 80% 是高 K 金屬閘極，其中 20% 約為 28LP。

And next year we'll compete on both fronts.

明年我們將在這兩個方面競爭。

We will compete on 28LP and we are planning to increase the capacity on 28LP also.

我們將在 28LP 上競爭，並且我們還計劃增加 28LP 的容量。

That's (technical difficulty) the next year's 28-nanometer will be bigger than this year.

那就是（技術難度）明年的28奈米會比今年更大。

Competition will always be there, of course.

當然，競爭永遠存在。

This is already -- from 2011 this is the fifth year of 28-nanometer production.

從 2011 年開始，這已經是 28 奈米生產的第五年了。

The learning curve bring us to a very, very mature state that all the cost reduction and many of the yield improvement has been -- will be our competitive advantage and also increase our margins.

學習曲線使我們達到了一個非常非常成熟的狀態，所有成本的降低和許多產量的提高都將成為我們的競爭優勢，並增加我們的利潤。

All right.

好的。

I think we will now take our next question from the call.

我想我們現在將回答電話中的下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Donald Lu, Goldman Sachs.

唐納德·盧，高盛。

Good afternoon.

午安.

My first question is still on smartphones.

我的第一個問題仍然是關於智慧型手機的。

Can you let us know what percent of revenue today, in Q4 for example is from smartphones?

您能否告訴我們今天（例如第四季）來自智慧型手機的收入百分比是多少？

And also what would be the TSMC's addressable market per smartphones, i.e.

以及台積電智慧型手機的潛在市場是什麼，即

like on average how many -- how much revenue TSMC can generate, on average, per smartphones this year and next year.

例如台積電今年和明年每台智慧型手機平均可以產生多少收入。

Okay, Donald.

好的，唐納德。

Let me repeat your question.

讓我重複一下你的問題。

Your question is how much percent of revenue TSMC derives from smartphone-related applications?

您的問題是台積電的收入中有多少比例來自智慧型手機相關應用？

Your second question is in terms of revenue per smartphone box, what is TSMC's revenue per smartphone on average?

您的第二個問題是，就每台智慧型手機的收入而言，台積電每台智慧型手機的平均收入是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Donald, we actually don't count on quarterly basis percentages of smartphone, but I can tell you I can see for the whole year 2014 there will be a little bit more than 50% of our revenue coming from smartphone.

Donald，實際上我們並沒有計算智慧型手機的季度百分比，但我可以告訴你，我可以看到 2014 年全年，我們的收入將有 50% 以上來自智慧型手機。

And revenue per box.

以及每盒的收入。

Revenue per box, the average $8 this year which is an improvement from last year's $7.

每盒收入今年平均為 8 美元，比去年的 7 美元有所提高。

Okay.

好的。

And how about the trend for next year?

那麼明年的趨勢又如何呢？

Do we have any estimate?

我們有什麼估計嗎？

It's probably too premature to talk about next year, but I would think the percentage will be very similar to this year.

現在談論明年可能還為時過早，但我認為這個百分比將與今年非常相似。

Okay great.

好的，太好了。

Just -- my second question is more on structural profitability?

只是──我的第二個問題更多的是關於結構性獲利能力？

Given all the moving parts, depreciation trend, etc., for next year what would be the -- can TSMC still maintain a similar structural profitability with the 20-, 16-nanometer ramp (technical difficulty).

考慮到所有的移動部件、折舊趨勢等，明年台積電能否在 20 奈米、16 奈米斜坡上保持類似的結構性獲利能力（技術難度）。

We continue to work on productivity and cost reductions.

我們持續致力於提高生產力和降低成本。

So from what we can see now, we believe we can maintain the same level of structural profitability next year versus this year.

因此，從我們現在所看到的情況來看，我們相信明年我們可以保持與今年相同的結構性獲利水準。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

All right.

好的。

So now we are coming back to the floor.

現在我們回到會議現場。

Our next question comes from the floor from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

I want to ask one follow-up on the 16.

我想問16號的後續情況。

If you could talk about what you expect the revenue contribution now, given you're pulling it in earlier.

如果您能談談您現在對收入貢獻的預期，因為您已經提前投入了。

And do you still see any material swing factors that could swing that ramp up at this stage?

您是否仍看到任何實質的波動因素可能會導致現階段的波動上升？

Excuse me.

打擾一下。

Randy, you're saying the 16 FinFET?

Randy，你是說 16 FinFET？

For 16 FinFET for next year, when you ramp it up in the second half, percent of revenue.

對於明年的 16 FinFET，當你在下半年增加它時，佔收入的百分比。

And also if there's any material swing factors up or down that could swing the magnitude of that ramp up.

此外，如果存在任何重大的波動因素，可能會影響成長的幅度。

Probably too early to comment on the revenue side.

對收入方面發表評論可能還為時過早。

But I would think that -- give you a hint.

但我想——給你一個提示。

The ramp up will be a little bit faster than 20 SoC.

提升速度將比 20 SoC 快一點。

And we have a customer committed a high volume product tape-out already.

我們有一位客戶已經承諾大批量產品流片。

Congratulations.

恭喜。

My follow-up question, actually just more looking at your outlook.

我的後續問題，實際上只是更關注你的看法。

Given the comments you made on inventory I think you've put the chart it's not quite as lean coming out of fourth quarter, it's still coming down in Q4.

鑑於您對庫存所做的評論，我認為您已經將圖表放在了第四季度的庫存中，但第四季度的庫存仍然在下降。

But given you have a strong ramp up in 20, should we expect as we go into first quarter, I wonder if you think you'll use first quarter to build product again.

但考慮到你在 20 年內有強勁的成長，我們是否應該預期進入第一季時，我想知道你是否認為你會利用第一季再次建立產品。

Like if you have a lower utilization, you may build product early through the first quarter.

就像如果您的利用率較低，您可以在第一季早些時候建立產品。

And then also if you expect a little bit of a gap or slowdown coming out of fourth quarter.

如果您預計第四季度會出現一點差距或放緩。

I would prefer not getting into the first quarter next year.

我寧願不進入明年第一季。

But as I just showed you, the inventory cycle is 2 days below seasonality and it's going to be a mild correction, not as severe as last year.

但正如我剛才向您展示的那樣，庫存週期比季節性低 2 天，這將是溫和的調整，不會像去年那麼嚴重。

So that should give you some idea about the first quarter.

這應該能讓您對第一季有所了解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

The next question also comes from the floor.

下一個問題也來自會場。

It will be from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

它將由摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu 發出。

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

Can I just start with a housekeeping question?

我可以先問一個家事問題嗎？

That inventory chart that you showed, could I just ask you if it includes -- you've got a big system house customer that we cannot track but perhaps you can, does that include the system house.

你展示的庫存圖表，我可以問你是否包括——你有一個我們無法追蹤的大系統公司客戶，但也許你可以，這是否包括系統公司。

That's our fabless customers.

這就是我們的無晶圓廠客戶。

The chart shows fabless only.

此圖表僅顯示無晶圓廠。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

The second question is a comment that I think Mark and Lora have both talked about which is smartphones are going to drive growth for multiple more years.

第二個問題是我認為馬克和洛拉都談過的一個評論，即智慧型手機將在未來幾年內推動成長。

I think that's a little bit different from what is the consensus view which is that you're going to get unit growth, a lot of it going forward is going to be more lower end.

我認為這與共識觀點有點不同，共識觀點是你將獲得單位成長，其中許多未來將更加低端。

And Lora also said just now that percentage-wise, smartphone is going to be about the same next year.

洛拉剛才也表示，從百分比來看，明年智慧型手機的市佔率將大致相同。

So can you talk about why do you think that's going to drive growth for a few more years?

那麼您能談談為什麼您認為這將推動未來幾年的成長嗎？

Where do you see that?

你在哪裡看到的？

What gives you that confidence?

是什麼給了你這樣的信心？

Yes, smartphone revenue next year appears flattening out total.

是的，明年智慧型手機總收入似乎將持平。

But we see next year it's still going to be an increase.

但我們預計明年這一數字仍將增加。

But our growth are propelling -- what TSMC can grow is mainly from the market share in that smartphone segment.

但我們的成長正在推動——台積電的成長主要來自於智慧型手機領域的市場份額。

That we think given the 20-nanometer going forward and 16 and 10, we think our market share in the smartphone will continue to grow.

我們認為，鑑於未來 20 奈米以及 16 奈米和 10 奈米的發展，我們認為我們在智慧型手機中的市場份額將繼續增長。

Sorry, I thought Lora's comment was as a percentage of total revenue, smartphone is not going up next year versus the last couple of years it's been increasing.

抱歉，我認為 Lora 的評論是佔總收入的百分比，智慧型手機明年不會成長，而過去幾年它一直在成長。

So next year smartphone is not going to outgrow the overall company.

因此，明年智慧型手機的成長不會超過整個公司的成長。

What Lora said is similar, actually there will be a little bit increase.

洛拉說的也差不多，其實還會有一點點的增加。

All right, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Yes, you forget that we will grow -- we're going to grow next year the Company.

是的，你忘記了我們會成長——明年我們公司將會成長。

Sure.

當然。

No, I understand that.

不，我明白。

So it's a growth above the average, yes.

所以這是高於平均水平的增長，是的。

All right.

好的。

The next question comes from the floor and it will be from Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Roland Shu 提出。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

My first question is still on 20-nanometer gross margin.

我的第一個問題仍然是20納米的毛利率。

Lora, if I have read you right, you said the increasing volume after you ramp up the new technology actually will be key factor for bringing up the gross margin overall.

洛拉（Lora），如果我沒聽錯的話，你說過新技術推廣後銷量的增加實際上將是提高整體毛利率的關鍵因素。

And also I look at -- in the past, you said it takes about seven to eight quarters to bring up the new technology gross margin to corporate level.

我還看一下，過去您說需要大約七到八個季度才能將新技術毛利率提高到公司水準。

That actually seven to eight quarters also was around the time you ramp up the total revenue to above 20%, probably 23%, 25%.

實際上，七到八個季度也是你將總收入提高到 20% 以上的時間，可能是 23%、25%。

So my question is for your 20-nanometer in 4Q I think the revenue guidance is above 20%.

所以我的問題是，對於第四季的 20 奈米，我認為收入指引高於 20%。

So is this 20% actually a big threshold level for you to bring up the gross margin?

那麼這個20%其實是你們提高毛利率的一個很大的門檻嗎？

Because I think with the 20% total revenue contribution I think the volume is big enough.

因為我認為 20% 的總收入貢獻我認為數量已經夠大了。

Or there's another factor to have a lower margin for 20-nanometer.

或者還有另一個因素導致 20 奈米的裕度較低。

Okay, this is a unique way of associating the percentage of revenue to the gross margin.

好的，這是將收入百分比與毛利率關聯起來的獨特方式。

And you talked about 20-nanometer as a separate node.

您談到了 20 奈米作為一個單獨的節點。

When we look at 20 and 16, we feel it's the same node because 16 is a continuation of 20-nanometer and they share a lot of the same equipment and same process almost.

當我們看20和16時，我們感覺這是同一個節點，因為16是20奈米的延續，它們共享很多相同的設備和幾乎相同的製程。

So if you combine these two nodes together and -- well, I cannot say if 20% is a threshold or not.

因此，如果將這兩個節點組合在一起，那麼我不能說 20% 是否是一個閾值。

What we look in the Company is we're looking to the -- how efficient can we run this node and what will be the scale and what's our engagement with the customers and how effectively we bring down the capital efficiency -- we bring up the capital efficiency so on and so forth.

我們對公司的看法是——我們運行這個節點的效率如何，規模有多大，我們與客戶的互動是什麼，以及我們如何有效地降低資本效率——我們提出了資本效率等等。

So we don't usually link that to a percentage of contribution to Company revenue.

因此，我們通常不會將其與對公司收入的貢獻百分比連結起來。

But for the volume-wise actually I think it is big enough now.

但就體積而言，實際上我認為現在已經足夠大了。

So is it possible to 20-nanometer actually to bring up the 20-nanometer gross margin to corporate average in less than seven to eight quarters?

那麼20奈米是否有可能在不到七到八個季度的時間內真正將20奈米的毛利率提高到企業平均值呢？

Maybe not three quarters, four quarters.

也許不是四分之三，四分之四。

It's not possible because with -- the 20-nanometer will be very soon migrate to 16 and 16 will take the momentum from 20.

這是不可能的，因為 20 奈米很快就會遷移到 16 奈米，而 16 奈米將繼承 20 奈米的勢頭。

It's going to ramp very, very fast, not only on the volume also on the profitability side as well.

它將非常非常快地增長，不僅在數量上，而且在盈利能力方面也是如此。

Okay, little bit complicated to me.

好吧，對我來說有點複雜。

Okay, I'll switch to the second question.

好的，我轉到第二個問題。

The second question is on TSMC actually did a very good job.

第二個問題是台積電其實做得非常好。

I think from 2010 to 2014 you had two strategic financial goals.

我認為從 2010 年到 2014 年，你們有兩個策略財務目標。

One is for your PBT to grow more than 10% in CAGR.

一是您的 PBT 複合年增長率 (CAGR) 成長超過 10%。

The other one is for ROE to be above 20%.

二是ROE要20%以上。

I think from 2010 to 2014, I think TSMC has been -- the performance has been above your goal.

我認為從2010年到2014年，我認為台積電的表現一直高於你的目標。

So how about expectation for the next five years, 2015 to 2018 or 2019.

那麼對未來五年（2015 年至 2018 年或 2019 年）的預期如何？

Are you still comfortable with this double-digit PBT growth going forward?

您對未來兩位數的 PBT 成長仍然感到滿意嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

We believe we will still grow faster than the semiconductor and as you know in the past few years, we have been growing 2X of semiconductor.

我們相信，我們的成長速度仍將超過半導體，如您所知，在過去幾年中，我們的半導體成長速度是原來的 2 倍。

We'll continue to gain foundry market share in the next five years, that's what we believe.

我們相信，未來五年我們將繼續獲得代工市場份額。

So our financial objectives will remain unchanged.

因此，我們的財務目標將保持不變。

PBT, CAGR bigger, equal to 10% and ROE bigger than 20% from 2015 to 2019.

2015年至2019年，PBT、CAGR更大，等於10%，ROE大於20%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right, let's go back to the call.

好吧，讓我們回到通話。

We will take our next question from the call.

我們將在電話中回答下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究公司。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

So this is a question for Mark or CC.

所以這是馬克或CC 的問題。

I'm just looking at the end markets focus for TSMC.

我只是關注台積電的終端市場重點。

PC is not -- has never been a big part of your business.

PC 從來都不是您業務的重要組成部分。

But when I look at AP for next year, the transition to 64-bit and the introduction of FinFET, are we moving -- is the AP moving into a world where it can realistically address mainstream PCs now that we've got Windows 10 coming and with Chromebook ramping up and Android is moving to 64-bit.

但是，當我展望明年的 AP 時，向 64 位的過渡以及 FinFET 的引入，我們是否會採取行動 - 既然 Windows 10 即將到來，AP 是否會進入一個可以真正滿足主流 PC 需求的世界隨著Chromebook 的崛起，Android 也正在轉向64 位元。

How do you see this AP evolving into mainstream computing?

您如何看待這款 AP 演變成主流運算？

And maybe just to follow up to that, can you maybe just compare and contrast.

也許只是為了跟進這一點，您可以進行比較和對比嗎？

If you're an ARM fabless chipmaker building these APs for computing, how would you compare the cost and the performance using 64-bit ARM and your FinFET Plus versus Intel's Broadwell?

如果您是 ARM 無晶圓廠晶片製造商，正在建造這些用於運算的 AP，您會如何比較使用 64 位元 ARM 和 FinFET Plus 與英特爾 Broadwell 的成本和性能？

Do you think it would be cost competitive versus Intel's Broadwell and do you think it would be performance competitive versus Intel's Broadwell?

您認為它與英特爾的 Broadwell 相比具有成本競爭力嗎？

All right, Brett, let me repeat your question.

好吧，布雷特，讓我重複一下你的問題。

You basically are asking us whether or not the migration of technologies and then with the arrival of ARM based 64-bit core, the fabless today can design application processors that can going into the mainstream PC market.

您基本上是在問我們是否會進行技術遷移，然後隨著基於 ARM 的 64 位元核心的到來，當今的無晶圓廠是否可以設計出可以進入主流 PC 市場的應用處理器。

And if they could, how would they compare with existing incumbent players such as Intel in terms of cost and performance?

如果可以的話，他們在成本和性能方面與英特爾等現有的現有廠商相比如何？

That's your question, right?

這就是你的問題，對吧？

That's right, Elizabeth.

沒錯，伊麗莎白。

And it's really comparing next year's AP to Intel Broadwell.

這實際上是在將明年的 AP 與英特爾 Broadwell 進行比較。

Whether you think the new Broadwell platform from Intel, which is 14-nanometer, how does that -- how might we see fabless players running TSMC FinFET Plus and 64-bit ARM versus those platforms from Intel, from a cost and performance perspective.

無論您如何看待英特爾全新的 14 奈米 Broadwell 平台，從成本和性能的角度來看，我們如何看待運行 TSMC FinFET Plus 和 64 位元 ARM 的無晶圓廠廠商與英特爾的這些平台的對比。

So you're specific to 2015.

所以你是針對2015年的。

You are asking 2015.

你問的是2015年。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well, we certainly hope the ARM-based core can get into PC faster.

那麼，我們當然希望基於ARM的核心能夠更快進入PC。

However, the recent trend seems to be slowing down and we do not count on that.

然而，最近的趨勢似乎正在放緩，我們並不指望這一點。

But our customers are continuing to make this ARM-based core into a mainstream PC application.

但我們的客戶正在繼續將這種基於 ARM 的核心打造成主流 PC 應用程式。

And I think it's more than power and the performance of those chips.

我認為這不僅僅是這些晶片的功率和性能。

There are a lot to do with the ecosystem around the x86 core.

x86 核心周圍的生態系統有很多事情要做。

So it's up to our customers and their customers how we together get into this.

因此，這取決於我們的客戶和他們的客戶，我們如何共同參與其中。

But definitely this industry needs alternative in the PC world.

但毫無疑問，這個產業需要個人電腦領域的替代方案。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe just a follow-up for Lora.

也許只是洛拉的後續行動。

If I look on the balance sheet of TSMC there's a large amount of construction in progress, so CapEx that's been spent that is not effective capacity.

如果我查看台積電的資產負債表，就會發現大量建設正在進行中，因此所花費的資本支出並不是有效產能。

Can you maybe just give us a sense for how this trends over the next three or four quarters and how that -- how depreciation might trend as well on the back of that?

您能否讓我們了解未來三到四個季度的趨勢，以及在此背景下貶值的趨勢如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So your question is looking at our balance sheet, there's a very large item called construction in progress which of course eventually will become capacity.

所以你的問題是看看我們的資產負債表，有一個非常大的專案稱為在建工程，當然最終會成為產能。

And you want to know what is the trend leading from this large account in construction in progress into the impact of our depreciation.

您想知道這一大筆在建工程對我們折舊的影響的趨勢是什麼。

That's right, thanks.

原來如此，謝謝。

We are building new facilities to ramp the 20 and 16-nanometer which will be located in our Tainan site.

我們正在台南工廠建設新設施，以推進 20 奈米和 16 奈米生產。

So the number you see in the balance sheet is associated with that building construction and some of them are equipment purchase.

因此，您在資產負債表中看到的數字與建築施工相關，其中一些是設備採購。

So what I can tell you is the depreciation change.

所以我可以告訴你的是折舊的變化。

And this year with the TWD9.6b CapEx, the depreciation year-over-year change will be roughly 30% which has actually been lower.

今年以 TWD9.6b 資本支出計算，折舊年減約 30%，實際上較低。

I was telling somebody 35% earlier, but it's come out to about 30%.

我之前告訴別人 35%，但結果是 30% 左右。

With slightly more CapEx for next year as I was talking about, the depreciation increase will be much smaller than this year versus last year.

正如我所說，明年的資本支出略有增加，與去年相比，今年的折舊增幅將小得多。

It will be in the mid-teens range and certainly below 20% increase year over year.

它將在十幾歲左右，同比增幅肯定低於 20%。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, now let's come back to the floor and Andrew is eagerly anticipating me.

好吧，現在讓我們回到會場，安德魯正熱切地期待著我。

So we'll have Andrew Lu from Barclays.

我們請來巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lu。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

Okay, I have to translate your questions into English.

好吧，我得把你的問題翻譯成英文。

Andrew's question is given there will be a faster ramp of 16-nanometer, does this mean that next year's third quarter, fourth quarter revenue from 16-nanometer will be bigger than this year's third quarter, fourth quarter revenue from 20-nanometer?

Andrew的問題是16奈米將會有更快的成長，這是否意味著明年第三季、第四季16奈米的營收將大於今年第三季、第四季20奈米的營收？

No.

不。

So actually --

所以實際上——

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

Actually if you look at what we announced this year, early this year we said that the 20 SoC is in production.

實際上，如果你看看我們今年宣布的內容，今年年初我們就說過 20 SoC 已經投入生產。

That means we start our wafer production.

這意味著我們開始晶圓生產。

And the shipment, the significant shipment actually is in the third quarter.

而出貨量，重要的出貨量其實是在第三季。

So you know that for this kind of cycle time, run through the line, getting the packaging and then get the revenue.

所以你知道，對於這種週期時間，運行生產線，獲得包裝，然後獲得收入。

16 FinFET actually is longer because they have more masking layers.

16 FinFET 實際上更長，因為它們有更多掩蔽層。

So when we start at the end of second quarter, you can estimate that when you have the volume shipment translate into revenue.

因此，當我們從第二季末開始時，您可以估計批量出貨量何時會轉化為收入。

That's what I can (multiple speakers).

這就是我能做的（多個發言者）。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

(Multiple speakers) It's two quarter late, two quarter difference.

（多位發言者） 晚了兩個季度，有兩個季度的差異。

The lead time or the shipments.

交貨時間或出貨量。

It's one and a half quarter to be exact.

準確地說是一個半季。

All right.

好的。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

In the fourth quarter we will see a contribution.

在第四季我們將看到貢獻。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

High single digit.

高個位數。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

That's all I want.

這就是我想要的。

The other question, this time I use English only.

另一個問題，這次我只使用英語。

For 10-nanometer ramp-up, you mentioned you will be starting from year 2016.

對於 10 奈米的加速，您提到將從 2016 年開始。

Is there a similar timeframe to ramp up like 16, 16-nanometer ramp up next year or further delay another one or two quarters, to generate revenue?

明年是否有類似的時間框架來加速 16、16 奈米的加速，或進一步推遲一兩個季度，以產生收入？

Okay.

好的。

I said we will try to enable our customers to do the ramp up in the 2016.

我說我們將盡力幫助我們的客戶在 2016 年實現產能提升。

I think it's toward the end of 2016 and really it's still up to the customer's ramp.

我認為已經到 2016 年底了，而且實際上仍取決於客戶的需求。

But I think in terms of revenue it will be much lower than 16-nanometer in 2015.

但我認為從營收來看，2015年會比16奈米低很多。

So the real volume will happen beginning of 2017 and on.

因此，真正的成交量將在 2017 年初及以後發生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question also comes from the floor.

下一個問題也來自與會者。

It will be HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

匯豐銀行的史蒂文·佩拉約（Steven Pelayo）將擔任此人。

When I look back at 28-nanometer you've had seven quarters of solid absolute dollar growth sequentially.

當我回顧 28 奈米時，您已經連續七個季度實現了絕對美元的穩健成長。

Now when I look at 20-nanometer you're already at 20% of revenue in two quarters.

現在，當我觀察 20 奈米技術時，兩個季度的收入就已經達到了 20%。

That's a steep ramp.

那是一個陡峭的坡道。

Do you suspect that 20-nanometer in absolute dollars on a quarterly basis can continue to grow every quarter like the first seven quarters that you saw in 28-nanometer?

您是否懷疑 20 奈米按季度絕對美元計算可以繼續每個季度增長，就像您在 28 奈米中看到的前七個季度一樣？

Yes, we still see the 20-nanometer continue to grow next year.

是的，我們仍然看到明年 20 奈米將繼續成長。

So even quarterly in the first quarter, second quarter, with seasonality, you still will see sequential dollar-on-dollar growth (multiple speakers).

因此，即使是第一季、第二季的季度數據，隨著季節性的變化，您仍然會看到美元兌美元的連續成長（多個發言者）。

There might have some kind of seasonality but on the average yes, it's still growing.

可能存在某種季節性，但平均而言，它仍在增長。

I understand, yes.

我明白，是的。

And then, Lora, a question for you.

然後，洛拉，問你一個問題。

I know the Board is going to talk about a dividend next year in February.

我知道董事會將在明年二月討論股息問題。

You have about TWD300b in cash.

你有大約TWD300b的現金。

You're generating about TWD40b a quarter.

您每季的收入約為新台幣 40b。

How much cash do you need to run this business?

您需要多少現金來經營這項業務？

We're trying to all figure out what kind of magnitude?

我們都在努力弄清楚到底有多大？

Could you afford TWD4, could you afford more even?

你能買得起TWD4嗎？

It seems like you could.

看來你可以。

So maybe you can talk a little bit about what are the inputs that go into that decision on where you would like to take the dividend.

因此，也許您可以談論在決定您希望在哪裡獲得股息時需要考慮哪些因素。

I think the key input is the sustainability of free cash flow generation, consider the potential CapEx for the future years and the operating cash flow we can generate with that kind of business growth.

我認為關鍵的投入是自由現金流產生的可持續性，考慮未來幾年的潛在資本支出以及我們可以透過這種業務成長產生的營運現金流。

That's the key decision factor.

這是關鍵的決定因素。

I probably cannot tell you what's the magnitude because we need to discuss with the Board.

我可能無法告訴您其嚴重程度，因為我們需要與董事會討論。

But as I said earlier in my comments, we feel that we are affordable to raise the dividend level and the Board will decide the numbers.

但正如我之前在評論中所說，我們認為我們有能力提高股息水平，董事會將決定股息數字。

I'm sorry, if I could just sneak in a follow up to that first question to you.

很抱歉，我可以偷偷地跟進第一個問題。

If you do have some seasonality in 20-nanometer in the first half next year, do you worry at all about the margin implications there if you're not fully utilized on that very expensive capacity?

如果明年上半年 20 奈米確實存在一些季節性，那麼如果您沒有充分利用這非常昂貴的產能，您是否會擔心對利潤率的影響？

Very hard to answer your question.

很難回答你的問題。

Although I say seasonality, but I don't expect too much of a drop, if there is a drop.

雖然我說的是季節性，但如果有下降的話，我預計不會有太大的下降。

You can see the smartphone are selling very well.

你可以看到智慧型手機賣得很好。

I did not say which one, but --.

我沒有說是哪一個，但是－－。

I'll let Lora to answer this question because you know --

我會讓洛拉來回答這個問題，因為你知道——

It's too early to give a guidance (multiple speakers) on margins.

現在就邊緣問題提供指導（多位發言者）還為時過早。

But we think the seasonality -- since last year we have this mechanism of pre-built, work with our customers to smooth out the utilization.

但我們認為季節性 - 自去年以來我們已經預先建立了這種機制，與我們的客戶合作以平滑利用率。

And for the 20-nanometer we intend to do that and I think that in terms of product complexity it's much simpler and we should be able to minimize the impact.

對於 20 奈米，我們打算這樣做，我認為就產品複雜性而言，它要簡單得多，我們應該能夠將影響降至最低。

All right.

好的。

The next question comes from the floor.

下一個問題來自會場。

It will be from UBS, Eric Chen.

它將來自瑞銀集團，Eric Chen。

Hi.

你好。

My first question is regarding to the 20 and 16 FinFET, the technology.

我的第一個問題是關於 20 和 16 FinFET 技術。

You mentioned the equipment in between both FinFET are pretty similar.

您提到兩個 FinFET 之間的設備非常相似。

So I assume that yield rate -- of the 15, sorry 16 FinFET, even 16 FinFET PLUS is pretty high.

因此，我認為 15 個（抱歉，16 FinFET）甚至 16 FinFET PLUS 的良率都相當高。

So I'm just wondering why our equipment move-in is so conservative compared to our competitor.

所以我只是想知道為什麼我們的設備搬入與我們的競爭對手相比如此保守。

I mean compared to our competitor at 14 FinFET technology in terms of the equipment move-in.

我的意思是，與我們採用 14 FinFET 技術的競爭對手相比，就設備搬入而言。

So Eric's question is he assumes that we will have a very good yield rate on the 16-nanometer FinFET.

所以 Eric 的問題是，他假設我們在 16 奈米 FinFET 上會有非常好的良率。

I think that's correct.

我認為這是正確的。

So given that, why are we so conservative in equipment move-in.

既然如此，為什麼我們在設備搬入方面如此保守？

Or straightforward, like Samsung, Global Foundry, they mention they have around 50,000 wafers at the end of this year.

或者直接說，像三星、格羅方德，他們提到今年年底他們有大約 50,000 片晶圓。

Let me answer your question.

讓我回答你的問題。

First your impression of we're slowly move-in 16 FinFET equipment.

首先你的印像是我們正在慢慢地引入 16 FinFET 設備。

I think Lora just mentioned that we are going to spend also a big CapEx next year.

我想洛拉剛剛提到我們明年還將花費大量資本支出。

And from this year, next year we invest on the 16 FinFET and 20 SoC also.

從今年、明年開始，我們還將投資 16 FinFET 和 20 SoC。

And some of the tools, actually a high portion of the tool are common for these two nodes.

而且有些工具，其實很大一部分工具是這兩個節點通用的。

So no, it's not a slowly move-in as you said.

所以不，這並不是像你說的慢慢搬進來。

Yes, we did ramp up the 16 FinFET behind our competitors, yes.

是的，我們確實落後於競爭對手，提高了 16 FinFET 的產量。

And that's why our Chairman said that we are going to have a smaller market share.

這就是為什麼我們的董事長說我們的市場佔有率將會縮小。

But our situation improved as time goes by because of our manufacturing maturity and good yield performance.

但隨著時間的推移，由於我們的製造成熟度和良好的良率表現，我們的情況有所改善。

And also the customer pull in their demand so we decide to pull in the ramp up schedule.

而且客戶也拉動了他們的需求，所以我們決定拉動產能計畫。

And we are in a very high -- gung ho to bring up the 16 FinFET.

我們正以非常高的熱情推出 16 FinFET。

I said we have more than 1,000 engineers preparing for the ramp up.

我說我們有 1000 多名工程師為升級做準備。

So that's give you a hint that we are full speed actually preparing for that.

所以這給了你一個暗示，我們實際上正在全速為此做準備。

Okay.

好的。

We believe that you are going to be very aggressive in the 16 capacity, the FinFET capacity for next year.

我們相信你們會在明年的 16 產能（FinFET 產能）上非常積極。

And your comment around that is aggressive and probably you'll keep it aggressive.

你對此的評論是激進的，並且可能你會保持它的激進性。

So internally the TSMC do have the scenario, the analysis that the 14, the 16 FinFET technology in terms of the capacity-wise is probably will overcapacity in the year 2006 --

所以台積電內部確實有這樣的情景，分析說14、16 FinFET技術在產能方面很可能會在2006年產能過剩——

2016?

2016年？

2016, I'm sorry, the year 2016, the overcapacity (multiple speakers)?

2016，對不起，2016年，產能過剩（多個揚聲器）？

Overcapacity?

超容量？

We build the capacity to meet the customer demand.

我們建立滿足客戶需求的能力。

And we have confidence.

我們有信心。

As I said we already have customer committed high volume tape-outs to us.

正如我所說，我們已經有客戶向我們承諾了大批量流片。

And we build the capacity according to the demand and we have the confidence to gain a large market share in 2016.

我們根據需求建立產能，我們有信心在2016年獲得較大的市場份額。

The yield rate will be the key right?

收益率將是關鍵吧？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And also for Lora, regarding to 20 and 16 FinFET (inaudible), the equipment is not big different.

對於 Lora 來說，對於 20 和 16 FinFET（聽不清楚），設備也沒有太大區別。

So we assume that the depreciation pretty much locate for the 20-nanometer process.

因此我們假設折舊大部分發生在 20 奈米製程上。

So in other words, can we expect the gross margin for 16 the PLUS FinFET the pickup time above average probably will be much faster than we thought.

那麼換句話說，我們能否預期16 PLUS FinFET的毛利率高於平均的拾取時間可能會比我們想像的要快得多。

That's the right assumption, yes.

這是正確的假設，是的。

Okay.

好的。

So if we talk about seven quarter for 20, can we assume that probably four quarter for 16?

因此，如果我們談論 20 人的 7 個季度，我們是否可以假設 16 個人可能是 4 個季度？

I don't know because we only look at the two nodes together.

我不知道，因為我們只一起查看兩個節點。

Okay and my second question --

好的，我的第二個問題—

You already had two questions.

你已經有兩個問題了。

Now we have to go to someone else.

現在我們必須去找別人。

Sorry, Eric, we can come back to you.

抱歉，埃里克，我們可以再聯繫您。

Okay, sure.

好吧，當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Next will be from Dan Heyler.

接下來是丹·海勒 (Dan Heyler)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just a few quick housekeeping.

只需進行一些快速的內務處理即可。

Lora, could you comment a little bit on the linearity of the CapEx next year in terms of first half versus second half?

Lora，您能否對明年上半年與下半年的資本支出線性度進行一些評論？

You normally share that with us.

您通常會與我們分享這一點。

Next year is not decided yet.

明年還沒決定。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

I imagine front-end loaded.

我想像前端已載入。

Actually I don't have the number with me.

事實上我身上沒有這個號碼。

I intuitively think it will be front-end loaded because we need to get the capacity ready for the 16-nanometer ramp.

我直覺地認為它將是前端加載的，因為我們需要為 16 奈米斜坡做好容量準備。

Probably kind of similar to this year than prior year in terms of the weighting?

就權重而言，今年可能與去年相似？

This year it's not that front-end loaded.

今年前端加載的情況沒有那麼嚴重。

Maybe slightly front-end loaded.

也許前端負載稍重。

I don't have the number with me.

我沒有帶號碼。

Okay, great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

So you'll come back to this.

所以你會回到這個。

So on the capacity growth then this year you grew by 12%.

因此，就容量成長而言，今年成長了 12%。

Could you share with us what kind of capacity growth we should expect next year?

您能否與我們分享一下明年我們預計會有什麼樣的產能成長？

Because you did allude to some 8-inch expansion and then you've also got -- which I'm sure is quite small, but in addition to that your 20- and 16-nanometer capacity growth?

因為你確實提到了一些 8 英寸的擴展，然後你還得到了——我確信這是相當小的，但除此之外，你的 20 奈米和 16 奈米產能增長了？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I said this year we will grow about 12% in total capacity.

我說今年我們總產能會成長12%左右。

Next year about the same.

明年也差不多。

Great.

偉大的。

And is it fair to assume that very little 8-inch addition, it's for peanuts or could we see bigger 8-inch?

假設 8 英寸的增加非常少，這公平嗎？

A couple hundred million is not peanuts.

幾億可不是小數目。

More 8-inch than last year I would say.

我想說比去年多了 8 英吋。

Two million.

兩百萬。

A couple hundred million.

幾億。

A couple hundred million capacity.

容量有幾億。

A couple hundred million US dollars.

幾億美元。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess then I wanted to think a little bit about the magnitude of the revenue trends.

然後我想我想思考一下收入趨勢的大小。

In the fourth quarter you're growing in low single digits.

第四季的成長速度較低。

The non-20-nanometer capacity how much is that?

非20奈米的產能是多少？

Is that growing or is that down in the fourth quarter in terms of the non-20?

就非 20 名球員而言，第四季這一數字是成長還是下降？

Taking out 20 it's down, is down.

拿出20來，就下來了，就下來了。

Yes.

是的。

More -- for our case a little bit more than seasonal because we are forecasting the DOI will be low.

更多——對於我們的情況來說，比季節性多一點，因為我們預測 DOI 會很低。

Down low single-digit is what it looks like?

低個位數是什麼樣子的？

We don't know.

我們不知道。

Probably close to double-digit size.

可能接近兩位數大小。

Double-digit decline for non-20.

非 20 歲以下兒童出現兩位數下降。

For non-20 yes.

對於非 20 歲是的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then finally just short one, no -- she's cutting me off.

最後只是簡短的一句，不——她正在打斷我。

Okay, I'll come back.

好的，我會回來的。

Right.

正確的。

Next one goes to -- the question will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy.

下一個問題將由瑞信蘭迪提出。

This one might be more for CC.

這個可能更適合CC。

I just wanted to see if you could give an update on the InFO and the fan-out wafer level packaging.

我只是想看看您是否可以提供有關 InFO 和扇出晶圓級封裝的最新資訊。

Just your initiatives on doing some of the integration.

只是您進行一些整合的舉措。

Whether next year there's many applications or it'll take time to develop and would come more the following year?

明年是否會有很多應用程序，或者需要時間來開發，並且明年會出現更多應用程式？

And in what type of applications you're seeing the first interest?

您最感興趣的是哪種類型的應用程式？

It takes time for the customers really to adopt the new packaging because that effect their design, architecture and also everything.

客戶真正採用新包裝需要時間，因為這會影響他們的設計、架構以及一切。

So application-wise it will still be in the mobile devices.

因此，從應用程式角度來看，它仍然會出現在行動裝置中。

And your question is --

你的問題是——

So it's probably more the following year.

所以明年可能會更多。

Like next year probably not much revenue, but I guess to get to hundreds of millions in revenue or --

就像明年一樣，收入可能不會太多，但我想收入會達到數億，或者——

The significant volume will be in 2016.

2016 年將達到最大數量。

We already work with a customer on that.

我們已經與客戶就此進行了合作。

Okay.

好的。

And then one quick follow up on the -- China.

然後是關於中國的快速跟進。

There was some discussion earlier about China and now your competitor foundry is putting a fab there.

早些時候有一些關於中國的討論，現在你的競爭對手代工廠正在那裡建造一座晶圓廠。

Does it make sense given the lot of attention on local manufacturing and even Qualcomm going to SMIC to have local China manufacturing, does it make sense at some point to consider a fab in China and are there restrictions or are those removed if you wanted to have a 12-inch fab in China?

考慮到對本地製造的大量關注，甚至高通將前往中芯國際進行中國本地製造，這是否有意義？或被取消？

We have a fab in China today with 8-inch and we are expanding that capacity also.

如今，我們在中國擁有一家 8 吋晶圓廠，我們也正在擴大產能。

This actually is today and following months and we have space next to the fab also.

這實際上是今天和接下來的幾個月，我們在晶圓廠旁邊也有空間。

So when the demand is needed, when the option is the most cost effective, that's one of the consideration.

因此，當需要需求時，當選擇最具成本效益時，這是考慮因素之一。

As to 12-inch, no.

至於12英寸，沒有。

I think so long as N minus two and below I think at least for the -- in the local government restriction is not there.

我認為只要 N 減二及以下，我認為至少對於──地方政府的限制是不存在的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So now we are going back to Eric for his follow-up questions.

現在我們回到埃里克詢問他的後續問題。

Elizabeth, thank you very much.

伊麗莎白，非常感謝你。

Regarding to the 10-nano FinFET, the ASML have a conference call last night and indirectly they mentioned that TSMC is quite a leading player.

關於10奈米FinFET，ASML昨晚召開電話會議，間接提到台積電是相當領先的。

So I just would like to know the -- what's your strategy.

所以我只是想知道你們的策略是什麼。

Your equipment move-in in the 16 probably not so aggressive, but your strategy at the 10-nano is so aggressive.

你的裝置在 16 奈米的移動可能不那麼激進，但你在 10 奈米的策略卻非常激進。

So how do you look at that future outlook?

那麼您如何看待未來的前景呢？

On EUV you mean the question?

關於 EUV，你的意思是這個問題嗎？

Yes, in terms of the 10-nano?

是的，就 10 奈米而言？

Our current 10-nanometer it does not using EUV.

我們目前的10奈米它沒有使用EUV。

All the technology developing for 10 is still using multiple patterning technology.

10的所有開發技術仍採用多重圖案化技術。

I thought you use two, right, EUV and the one you mentioned?

我以為你用了兩種，對吧，EUV 和你提到的那個？

We are working with ASML to develop EUV tools and the opportunity is to have a follow-on process simplification, using EUV, the masking layer simplification.

我們正在與 ASML 合作開發 EUV 工具，並有機會使用 EUV 進行後續製程簡化，即掩模層簡化。

But that has some way to go.

但這還有一段路要走。

It could not catch the -- our initial ramp of 10-nanometer.

它無法趕上我們最初的 10 奈米斜坡。

The current challenge will still be the power of the source and the availability.

目前的挑戰仍然是來源的力量和可用性。

And -- but it's still very encouraging that power -- source power is continually increasing and other factors as mask, defects, mask technology and the photo resist have a lot of improvements.

而且，但仍然非常令人鼓舞的是，功率源功率不斷增加，其他因素如掩模、缺陷、掩模技術和光阻也有了很大的改進。

So we are looking at the follow-on insertion point after the 10-nanometer ramp for the cost reduction or for the process simplification.

因此，我們正在研究 10 奈米斜坡之後的後續插入點，以降低成本或簡化製程。

Okay.

好的。

So the way you go for the 10-nano FinFET is the same as the Intel way or different way from Intel?

那麼你們對於10奈米FinFET的採用方式是與Intel的方式相同還是與Intel的方式不同呢？

In terms of not using EUV?

就不使用EUV而言？

Yes, in terms (multiple speakers).

是的，就（多個發言者）而言。

Yes, Intel appears -- announced they don't use the EUV on their 10.

是的，英特爾出現了——宣布他們不在 10 上使用 EUV。

So it's a different way, right?

所以這是一種不同的方式，對嗎？

I'm sorry I don't know Intel technology that well.

抱歉，我不太了解英特爾技術。

Okay.

好的。

The reason is I ask that there is one argument talking about the 14-nano FinFET.

原因是我問有一個關於 14 奈米 FinFET 的爭論。

It's the way Intel to go and the Samsung go.

這就是英特爾和三星的發展之路。

So once they go to the 10-nano if they go the different way, probably we will see the two different way in the 10-nano FinFET for the client to choose.

所以一旦他們進入10奈米，如果他們走不同的路，可能我們會在10奈米FinFET中看到兩種不同的方式供客戶選擇。

That probably will bring the risk on the either side.

這可能會給雙方帶來風險。

So I don't know this argument makes sense from your point of view.

所以我不知道從你的角度來看這個論點是否有意義。

Does that make sense?

那有意義嗎？

That's our plan.

這就是我們的計劃。

I don't know what Intel's detailed plan is.

我不知道Intel的詳細計劃是什麼。

And they haven't announced their ten-nanometer detail either.

他們也沒有公佈他們的十奈米細節。

So we just make the best of what's into our most beneficial way to implement the EUV.

因此，我們只是充分利用最有利的方式來實施 EUV。

Okay, very clear.

好的，非常清楚。

Thank you Dr. Liu.

謝謝劉醫生。

Follow-on questions from Andrew Lu.

安德魯·盧（Andrew Lu）的後續問題。

Very quick two questions.

非常快的兩個問題。

The first one is on 28-nanometer High-K Metal Gate versus Poly/SiON percentage on 28 in Q3 and Q4, any rough numbers?

第一個是第三季和第四季 28 奈米高 K 金屬閘極與 28 奈米多晶矽/SiON 的百分比，有粗略的數字嗎？

Probably 70 to 30.

大概是70到30。

For both quarters?

兩個季度？

In Q3, it's probably more than 20 -- more than 80% High-K Metal Gate and less than 20% Poly/SiON.

在第三季度，可能超過 20——超過 80% 高 K 金屬閘極，少於 20% 多晶矽/SiON。

But getting into Q4 Poly/SiON has a big increase from our demand.

但進入第四季度，Poly/SiON 的需求量大幅增加。

So it's getting to -- temporarily get to 70/30 in the Q4 as CC just mentioned.

因此，正如 CC 剛才所提到的，第四季的比例將暫時達到 70/30。

Because of the customers, right?

因為顧客，對嗎？

Because of the customers.

因為顧客。

Okay.

好的。

The next one is I remember last time Lora mentioned the CapEx to sales for next year is going to be higher than this year.

下一個是我記得上次 Lora 提到明年的銷售資本支出將高於今年。

But this time changed the tone saying the CapEx next year will be slightly higher than this year.

但這次改變了語氣，稱明年的資本支出將略高於今年。

So I just want to ask whether the CapEx to sales also higher than this year for the next year?

所以我只想問明年的銷售資本支出是否也比今年高？

I don't think I said last time that next year will be higher than this year.

我想我上次並沒有說過明年會比今年更高。

I didn't say that.

我沒那麼說。

I probably said it will be lower than --

我可能說過它會低於——

The Chairman said that.

主席如此說。

It will be lower than last year that's probably I have said.

我可能已經說過，這將低於去年。

Given the total CapEx, as I just indicated, will be slightly higher than TWD10b but we have not decided how much it's going to be.

正如我剛才指出的，總資本支出將略高於 TWD10b，但我們尚未決定具體金額。

We don't decide the revenue of 2015 so it's probably premature to comment on capital intensity for next year.

我們尚未決定 2015 年的收入，因此評論明年的資本密集度可能還為時過早。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

A follow-on question from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu 提出了後續問題。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

It's Rick Hsu from Daiwa.

我是來自大和的 Rick Hsu。

Just a quick follow-up question because sometimes Dr. Morris Chang gave some color for beyond one quarter.

只是一個快速的後續問題，因為有時張忠謀博士會在超過四分之一的時間裡給出一些顏色。

So could you give a little bit color for your Q1 outlook because when we talk about inventory correction this year it's very mild and demand is still pretty strong especially for leading edge has been in good shape?

那麼，您能否對第一季度的前景進行一些說明，因為當我們談論今年的庫存調整時，情況非常溫和，需求仍然相當強勁，尤其是在領先優勢一直處於良好狀態的情況下？

So just some color for next year Q1.

所以只是明年第一季的一些顏色。

Well, Q1 normally is a low season.

嗯，第一季通常是淡季。

You will see sequential decline for the experience we had before.

您會看到我們之前的體驗連續下降。

I cannot comment more on that.

我無法對此發表更多評論。

I don't think Q1 will be very different from that pattern.

我認為第一季與這種模式不會有太大不同。

Let me add some color for that if you want.

如果你願意的話，讓我添加一些顏色。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Of course.

當然。

We don't expect strong inventory adjustment more than what we see in Q4.

我們預計庫存調整不會比第四季更強烈。

Okay this is -- I think this is what we see from our demand forecasting.

好的，這是——我想這就是我們從需求預測中看到的。

A follow-up question from HSBC, Steven Pelayo.

匯豐銀行史蒂文·佩拉約 (Steven Pelayo) 提出了後續問題。

Just a little bit, thinking about the next three years or so, the last three years you guys have clearly benefited, 28-nanometer dominance, smartphone industry growing at 40% compounded growth rates.

只是一點點，想想未來三年左右，過去三年你們顯然受益匪淺，28奈米的主導地位，智慧型手機產業以40%的複合成長率成長。

You guys have grown 20%, 25% per year I think in the last three years or so.

我想在過去三年左右的時間裡，你們每年成長 20%、25%。

And I've got to do the calculation again for this year, maybe you're actually above that.

今年我得再算一遍，也許你真的超過了。

When you think about the next three years I think people are forecasting smartphone CAGRs may be more in the under 15% type range.

當你考慮未來三年時，我認為人們預測智慧型手機類型的複合年增長率可能會低於 15%。

Do you think -- and you guys gained a lot of market share I think in the last couple of years as well.

你認為嗎——我認為你們在過去幾年也獲得了很多市場份額。

Are laws of large numbers catching up to you guys?

大數定律跟上你們了嗎？

Without smartphone growth and that significant increase in silicon content for phones, do you think these growth rates that you've been enjoying of 20% plus for multiple years are headed lower over the next few years?

如果沒有智慧型手機的成長以及手機矽含量的顯著增加，您認為多年來一直享有 20% 以上的成長率在未來幾年會下降嗎？

And then to what magnitude?

那麼到什麼程度呢？

You cannot expect 20% growth for every year.

你不能指望每年 20% 的成長。

But we are confident we can grow double digit next two years.

但我們有信心未來兩年能夠達到兩位數成長。

Short follow-up questions from Dan Heyler.

丹·海勒提出的簡短後續問題。

That last one that you wouldn't let me sneak in there, I didn't forget it.

最後那件事你不讓我溜進去，我沒有忘記。

So on the 20-nanometer coming back to that, the fourth quarter contribution for this year on this percentage of sales will this -- will 20 grow one year later.

因此，回到 20 奈米技術，今年第四季對此銷售額百分比的貢獻將在一年後成長 20 奈米。

So fourth quarter next year what contribution of sales do you expect 20 per se to be?

那麼明年第四季 20 本身對銷售額的貢獻預計會是多少？

20-nanometer next year?

明年20奈米？

Because you've obviously pulled in 16-nanometer so there's new dynamics.

因為你顯然已經採用了 16 奈米技術，所以有新的動力。

So I'm wondering if you're going to see any growth year on year.

所以我想知道你是否會看到逐年增長。

From 4Q this year to 4Q next year will the dollar value grow year on year?

今年第四季到明年第四季美元價值會年增嗎？

Good question.

好問題。

I think next year as we ramp up 16 FinFET, 20 SoC demand will be flat and the percentage will be lower.

我認為明年，隨著我們增加 16 FinFET，20 SoC 的需求將持平，百分比也會更低。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, I think pretty much we have answered the most critical questions in your mind and we would like to conclude our conference and conference call right now.

好的，我認為我們已經回答了您心中最關鍵的問題，我們現在想結束我們的會議和電話會議。

And thank you for attending our session today.

感謝您參加我們今天的會議。

Before we conclude, please be advised the replay will be available within three hours from now.

在我們結束之前，請注意重播將在三小時內提供。

Transcripts will be available within 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

成績單將於即日起 24 小時內提供，均可透過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。