台積電 ADR (TSM) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • (Spoken in foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

    (外語發言) 歡迎參加台積電2013 年第四季度財報電話會議。

  • This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

    我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun,也是今天的主持人。

  • Before we begin, please let me extend our warmest wishes to all of you for a very happy year of the horse.

    在我們開始之前,請讓我向大家致以最熱烈的祝愿,祝大家馬年快樂。

  • Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

  • If you're joining us through the conference call, your dialing lines are in listen-only mode.

    如果您通過電話會議加入我們,您的撥號線路將處於只聽模式。

  • As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

    由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議,因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

  • The format for today's event will be as follows.

    今天的活動形式如下。

  • First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and full-year of 2013, followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

    首先,台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在2013年第四季度和全年的運營情況,然後是我們對本季度的指導。

  • Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang and TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide a couple of key messages.

    隨後,台積電董事長張忠謀博士和台積電的兩位聯席首席執行官 Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei,將共同提供幾個關鍵信息。

  • Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

    然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

  • For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    對於電話會議的參與者,如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本,您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

  • Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

    另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

  • As usual, I would remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

    像往常一樣,我要提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

  • Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

    請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

  • And now, I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho.

    現在,我想把領獎台轉給台積電的首席財務官Lora Ho女士。

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • Thank you, Elizabeth.

    謝謝你,伊麗莎白。

  • Good afternoon and happy New Year to everyone.

    下午好,祝大家新年快樂。

  • Thank you for joining us today.

    感謝您今天加入我們。

  • I will start my presentation with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and the recap of 2013 financial performance, followed by the guidance for the first quarter of 2014.

    我將以第四季度的財務亮點和 2013 年財務業績回顧開始我的演講,然後是 2014 年第一季度的指導。

  • In the fourth quarter, TSMC's business was negatively impacted by semiconductor supply chain's inventory management.

    第四季度,台積電的業務受到半導體供應鏈庫存管理的負面影響。

  • On a sequential basis, fourth quarter revenue declined 10.3% to TWD146 billion.

    第四季度收入環比下降 10.3% 至 1460 億新台幣。

  • Gross margin was 44.5%, down four percentage point from the third quarter, mainly due to lower capacity utilization.

    毛利率為 44.5%,比第三季度下降 4 個百分點,主要是由於產能利用率較低。

  • Total operating expenses decreased 11% as we took several expense-cutting measurements during the quarter.

    由於我們在本季度採取了多項削減開支的措施,總運營費用下降了 11%。

  • This leads to an operating margin of 32.8%, down 3.9 percentage point from the third quarter.

    這導致營業利潤率為 32.8%,比第三季度下降 3.9 個百分點。

  • Non-operating items was again of TWD2.6 billion.

    非經營性項目再次為26億新台幣。

  • We have reversed the TWD1.2 billion impairment loss due to strong business recovery from one of our invested company.

    由於我們其中一家投資公司的強勁業務復甦,我們已經扭轉了 12 億新台幣的減值損失。

  • In addition, we received the last payment of litigation settlement from SMIC.

    此外,我們還收到了中芯國際的最後一筆訴訟和解金。

  • Overall, EPS was TWD1.73 in the fourth quarter.

    總體而言,第四季度每股收益為 1.73 新台幣。

  • ROE was 21.7%.

    ROE為21.7%。

  • Let's take a look at revenue by applications.

    讓我們來看看應用程序的收入。

  • During the fourth quarter, inventory correction continued across all major segments of the semiconductor supply chain.

    第四季度,半導體供應鏈所有主要環節的庫存調整仍在繼續。

  • Our communication, computer and consumer-related revenue declined 13%, 7% and 20% respectively, while industrial and standard product remained flat during the quarter.

    我們的通信、計算機和消費相關收入分別下降了 13%、7% 和 20%,而工業和標準產品在本季度保持平穩。

  • On a full year basis, communication increased 29% and represented 54% of our revenue of 2013.

    在全年基礎上,通信增長了 29%,占我們 2013 年收入的 54%。

  • This reflected the strong demand for application processors, baseband, display drivers and other peripheral ICs used in mobile computing devices.

    這反映了對移動計算設備中使用的應用處理器、基帶、顯示驅動器和其他外圍 IC 的強勁需求。

  • Computer decreased 10% with PC graphics declining the most.

    計算機下降 10%,其中 PC 圖形下降幅度最大。

  • Consumer increased 43% year-over-year, reflecting the strong demand in the next generation game consoles.

    消費者同比增長 43%,反映了對下一代遊戲機的強勁需求。

  • Industrial and standard increased 14% as mobile devices use various ICs enabled by our specialty technologies, such as touch controller and power management IC, et cetera.

    由於移動設備使用由我們的專業技術支持的各種 IC,例如觸摸控制器和電源管理 IC 等,工業和標準產品增長了 14%。

  • By technology, 28- nanometer contributed 34% of our total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter, up from 32% in the third quarter.

    在技術方面,28 納米在第四季度貢獻了我們總晶圓收入的 34%,高於第三季度的 32%。

  • On a full year basis, 28-nanometer tripled and they contributed about 30% of our total wafer revenue, a big increase from the 12% in 2012.

    在全年基礎上,28 納米增長了兩倍,它們貢獻了我們晶圓總收入的 30% 左右,比 2012 年的 12% 有了很大的增長。

  • Now let's move on to the balance sheet.

    現在讓我們繼續討論資產負債表。

  • Cash and marketable securities was TWD245 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.

    第四季度末的現金和有價證券為 2450 億新台幣。

  • Current liability increased by TWD42 billion, due to higher accounts payable to equipment suppliers.

    由於應付設備供應商的賬款增加,流動負債增加了 420 億新台幣。

  • Accounts receivable turnover days increased to 48 days.

    應收賬款周轉天數增加至 48 天。

  • Days of inventory remained at 45 days.

    庫存天數保持在 45 天。

  • Let me make few comments on the cash flows.

    讓我對現金流量發表一些評論。

  • During the fourth quarter, we generated TWD103 billion from operations, invested TWD74 billion in capital expenditure and repaid TWD2 billion short-term loans.

    在第四季度,我們從運營中獲得了 1030 億新台幣,投入了 740 億新台幣的資本支出並償還了 20 億新台幣的短期貸款。

  • At the end of the fourth quarter, our cash balance increased TWD26 billion to TWD243 billion.

    在第四季度末,我們的現金餘額增加了 260 億新台幣至 2430 億新台幣。

  • In the fourth quarter, free cash flow was an inflow of TWD29 billion.

    第四季度,自由現金流流入290億新台幣。

  • Now I would like to give you a recap of our performance in year 2013.

    現在我想給大家回顧一下我們在 2013 年的表現。

  • 2013 was another record year for TSMC.

    2013年是台積電又一個創紀錄的一年。

  • Thanks to the technology leadership and excellent manufacturing execution in 28-nanometer, we were able to capture the strong growth in mobile computing market.

    得益於 28 納米的技術領先地位和出色的製造執行,我們能夠抓住移動計算市場的強勁增長。

  • From the financial point of view, revenue increased 18% year-over-year to reach TWD597 billion or in the US dollar term about $20 billion.

    從財務角度來看,收入同比增長 18%,達到 5970 億新台幣,或以美元計約 200 億美元。

  • On the profitability side, gross margin declined 1.1 percentage point to 47.1%, due to lower capacity utilization in 2013, while our structural profitability continued to improve.

    在盈利能力方面,由於 2013 年產能利用率下降,毛利率下降 1.1 個百分點至 47.1%,而我們的結構性盈利能力繼續改善。

  • On cash flow, we spent TWD288 billion or $9.7 billion in CapEx, up 17% from 2012.

    在現金流方面,我們在資本支出上花費了 2880 億新台幣或 97 億美元,比 2012 年增長了 17%。

  • However, we were able to grow operating cash flow at a faster rate of 22% to reach TWD347 billion.

    然而,我們能夠以 22% 的更快速度增長經營現金流,達到 3470 億新台幣。

  • Therefore, free cash flow increased by 54% year-over-year to reach TWD60 billion.

    因此,自由現金流同比增長 54%,達到 600 億新台幣。

  • On earnings, income before tax increased by 19% versus 2012.

    在收益方面,稅前收入與 2012 年相比增長了 19%。

  • Meanwhile we took a hit by the higher effective tax rate.

    與此同時,我們受到較高有效稅率的打擊。

  • The effective tax rate went up from 9% in 2012 to 13% in 2013.

    有效稅率從 2012 年的 9% 上升到 2013 年的 13%。

  • As a result, EPS increased at a slower pace of 13% to reach TWD7.26, set a new record.

    因此,每股盈利以 13% 的較慢速度增長至新台幣 7.26 元,創下新紀錄。

  • Overall, our ROE was 24% for the whole year, met our long-term financial objective of bigger than 20% ROE.

    總體而言,我們全年的 ROE 為 24%,實現了 ROE 大於 20% 的長期財務目標。

  • I have finished my report on financial part.

    我已經完成了財務部分的報告。

  • Now, let me provide you the first quarter outlook.

    現在,讓我為您提供第一季度的展望。

  • Based on the current business expectation and a forecast exchange rate of TWD30, we expect our revenue to be between TWD136 billion and TWD138 billion.

    根據目前的業務預期和新台幣 30 的預測匯率,我們預計我們的收入將在 1,360 億新台幣和 1,380 億新台幣之間。

  • This would translate into 6% Q over Q decline.

    這將轉化為 Q 比 Q 下降 6%。

  • On the margin side, we expect the first quarter gross margin to be between 44.5% and 46.5% and operating margin to be between 32% and 34%.

    在利潤率方面,我們預計第一季度毛利率將在 44.5% 至 46.5% 之間,營業利潤率將在 32% 至 34% 之間。

  • As you can see, first quarter gross margin is expected to be better than the fourth quarter, despite a lower revenue.

    如您所見,儘管收入較低,但預計第一季度毛利率將好於第四季度。

  • Let me explain why.

    讓我解釋一下為什麼。

  • You all know our business has certain seasonality.

    你們都知道我們的業務有一定的季節性。

  • First quarter is normally a slow quarter.

    第一季度通常是一個緩慢的季度。

  • If we can start wafers earlier in the slower quarter, then we will be able to complete more wafers in the following quarters when the business pace picks up.

    如果我們能夠在較慢的季度更早開始晶圓,那麼當業務節奏加快時,我們將能夠在接下來的幾個季度完成更多的晶圓。

  • This way we're able to complete and ship more wafers to support a surge demand in a peak quarter without having to build to a peak capacity for that quarter.

    通過這種方式,我們能夠完成並運送更多的晶圓來支持高峰季度的激增需求,而無需在該季度建立高峰產能。

  • Meanwhile, we can also benefit from better utilization rate in the slower quarter and improve our profitability.

    同時,我們也可以受益於較慢季度的更高利用率並提高我們的盈利能力。

  • We began to implement this practice few months ago and expect it to benefit our gross margin by 2 percentage points to 3 percentage points in the first quarter.

    我們幾個月前開始實施這種做法,預計第一季度的毛利率將提高 2 個百分點至 3 個百分點。

  • Another thing I want to highlight is the tax rate for 2014.

    我想強調的另一件事是 2014 年的稅率。

  • We expect our full-year effective tax rate to be about 13.3%, which is about the same as 2013's 13%.

    我們預計全年有效稅率約為 13.3%,與 2013 年的 13% 大致相同。

  • However, from a quarterly perspective, second quarter would carry about 40% the total tax burden for the whole year, due to the need to accrue the 10% on undistributed retained earnings.

    然而,從季度的角度來看,由於需要將 10% 的未分配留存收益累積起來,第二季度將承擔全年總稅負的 40% 左右。

  • This concludes my remarks.

    我的發言到此結束。

  • Let me turn the podium to our Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang.

    讓我把講台轉給我們的主席,Morris Chang 博士。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

    下午好,女士們,先生們。

  • Today, our comments are scheduled as on the slide on your left.

    今天,我們的評論安排在您左邊的幻燈片上。

  • First, I'm very glad to have the opportunity to introduce our new top management team.

    首先,我很高興有機會介紹我們新的高層管理團隊。

  • I'd first start with Lora, although I think everyone knows Lora well.

    我會先從 Lora 開始,儘管我認為每個人都非常了解 Lora。

  • Lora has a bachelor's degree from Chengchi University, a master's degree from National Taiwan University, both degrees in finance.

    Lora擁有政治大學學士學位,台灣大學碩士學位,金融學雙學位。

  • She worked for Cyanamid, Wyse, Thomas & Betts and TI-Acer before she joined TSMC in 1999.

    在 1999 年加入台積電之前,她曾在 Cyanamid、Wyse、Thomas & Betts 和 TI-Acer 工作。

  • And she has been TSMC's CFO since 2003.

    自 2003 年以來,她一直擔任台積電的首席財務官。

  • Next, Dr. C. C. Wei.

    接下來,C. C. Wei 博士。

  • C. C. has a bachelor's degree from Chiao Tung University and a Ph.

    C.C.擁有交通大學學士學位和博士學位。

  • D. from Yale University, both in electrical engineering.

    D. 耶魯大學電子工程專業。

  • C. C. worked for TI, SGS, Chartered before joining TSMC in 1998.

    1998 年加入台積電之前,C.C. 曾就職於 TI、SGS、Chartered。

  • C. C. has been Senior VP of Operations, Senior VP of Business Development, Co-COO, and in the Co-COO job CC was successively responsible for R&D and Operations.

    C.C.曾任運營高級副總裁、業務發展高級副總裁、聯席COO,在聯席COO工作中,CC先後負責研發和運營。

  • Now C.C. is President and Co-CEO.

    現在 C.C.是總裁兼聯合首席執行官。

  • C.C. is 60 years old and I should add that Lora is 57 years old.

    C.C.是 60 歲,我應該補充一點,洛拉是 57 歲。

  • Mark Liu; Mark has a B.S. from National Taiwan University and a Ph.

    劉馬克;馬克擁有學士學位國立台灣大學,博士。

  • D. from Berkeley, both in electrical engineering and computer science.

    D. 來自伯克利,電氣工程和計算機科學專業。

  • Mark worked for Intel, Bell Telephone Labs before joining TSMC in 1993.

    在 1993 年加入台積電之前,馬克曾在英特爾貝爾電話實驗室工作。

  • And at TSMC he has been VP, Senior VP of Operations and he was also a Co-COO, and all the time he was Co-COO he was responsible for our sales, marketing and planning.

    在台積電,他曾擔任副總裁、運營高級副總裁,同時也是一名聯席首席運營官,在擔任聯席首席運營官期間,他負責我們的銷售、營銷和規劃。

  • And now Mark and C.C. are Presidents and Co-CEOs of the Company.

    現在馬克和 C.C.是公司的總裁和聯席首席執行官。

  • Mark is 59 years old.

    馬克 59 歲。

  • I am not going to introduce myself.

    我不會自我介紹。

  • I think you all know me.

    我想你們都認識我。

  • So let me talk about 4Q and I would just give a few comments, a few words on the year 2013 and I would say more words on this year.

    所以讓我談談第四季度,我只想發表一些評論,對 2013 年說幾句話,關於今年我會說更多的話。

  • 4Q, I think, Lora already discussed it.

    4Q,我想,Lora 已經討論過了。

  • It's pretty much as we guided it three months ago.

    這和我們三個月前的指導差不多。

  • Our revenue was affected by the supply chain's inventory management across almost all major sectors, particularly in communication-related applications.

    我們的收入受到幾乎所有主要行業的供應鏈庫存管理的影響,尤其是在與通信相關的應用程序中。

  • The supply chain DOI declined from one day above seasonal in the third quarter to one day below seasonal in the fourth quarter.

    供應鏈 DOI 從第三季度的季節性以上一天下降到第四季度的季節性以下一天。

  • However, our structural profitability remained intact.

    然而,我們的結構盈利能力保持不變。

  • The lower utilization caused by lower revenue resulted in a lower gross margin and operating profit percent than 3Q.

    收入減少導致利用率降低,導致毛利率和營業利潤百分比低於第三季度。

  • On 2013, overall, we are pleased by the results.

    2013 年,總體而言,我們對結果感到滿意。

  • It was another consecutive year of record performance and as Lora pointed out, revenue grew by 18% and profit before tax grew by 19%.

    這是連續一年的創紀錄業績,正如 Lora 指出的那樣,收入增長了 18%,稅前利潤增長了 19%。

  • Now looking at 2014, we expect still another consecutive year of double-digit growth in revenue and I will talk a little more about profit later.

    現在展望 2014 年,我們預計收入將繼續保持兩位數的增長,稍後我將多談利潤。

  • 1Q is a seasonally weak quarter for IC companies, including us, and supply chain continued to manage inventory conservatively, even when the DOI has already reached below seasonal level.

    對於包括我們在內的 IC 公司來說,第一季度是季節性疲軟的季度,供應鏈繼續保守地管理庫存,即使 DOI 已經低於季節性水平。

  • We expect the supply chain DOI to be two days below seasonal in 1Q -- at the end of 1Q.

    我們預計第一季度供應鏈 DOI 將比季節性低兩天 - 在第一季度末。

  • Our structural profitability in 1Q still remains intact.

    我們一季度的結構性盈利能力仍然保持不變。

  • In fact, it will probably improve slightly, as you can tell from the guided profit margins.

    事實上,它可能會略有改善,從指導利潤率可以看出。

  • For full year 2014, we forecast the following industry numbers.

    對於 2014 年全年,我們預測以下行業數據。

  • For worldwide semiconductor industry, we forecast 5% growth.

    對於全球半導體行業,我們預測增長 5%。

  • For fabless industry, we forecast 8% growth, and for foundry industry, we forecast 10% growth.

    對於無晶圓行業,我們預測增長 8%,對於代工行業,我們預測增長 10%。

  • For TSMC, as I already did, we are forecasting revenue growth surpassing the growth of the foundry industry.

    對於台積電,正如我已經做過的那樣,我們預測收入增長將超過代工行業的增長。

  • 2014 capital budget is estimated to be between $9.5 billion and $10 billion, similar to that of last year.

    2014 年的資本預算估計在 95 億至 100 億美元之間,與去年相似。

  • About 95% of the capital expenditure is for advanced technologies and we mean 20 nanometers, 16 nanometers, more 28 nanometers, R&D and our mask operation.

    大約 95% 的資本支出用於先進技術,我們的意思是 20 納米、16 納米、更多 28 納米、研發和我們的掩模操作。

  • Depreciation expense is expected to increase by about 35% year-to-year.

    預計折舊費用將同比增長約 35%。

  • The ratio of depreciation expense to revenue is expected to rise by a few percentage points in 2014.

    預計 2014 年折舊費用佔收入的比例將上升幾個百分點。

  • However, we will have a higher blended ASP by several percentage points, resulting from new technologies, principally the high-K metal gate 28 nanometer and the 20 SoC.

    然而,由於新技術,主要是高 K 金屬柵極 28 納米和 20 SoC,我們的混合 ASP 將提高幾個百分點。

  • We also plan to have better operating efficiencies.

    我們還計劃提高運營效率。

  • The higher operating efficiency would include lower variable costs per wafer, higher manufacturing productivity, et cetera.

    更高的運營效率將包括更低的每片晶圓可變成本、更高的製造生產率等。

  • Now between those two principally the higher blended average price, which results from the richer product mix, principally from that and also partly from the better operating efficiencies, we intend to offset the increase of depreciation as a percent of revenue.

    現在在這兩者之間主要是較高的混合平均價格,這是由於更豐富的產品組合,主要是由於這一點,部分是由於更好的運營效率,我們打算抵消折舊佔收入百分比的增加。

  • We believe we can maintain and perhaps even improve our structural profitability in 2014 versus last year.

    我們相信,與去年相比,我們可以在 2014 年保持甚至可能提高我們的結構性盈利能力。

  • From second quarter on we'll see strong growth via our growth engines.

    從第二季度開始,我們將通過我們的增長引擎看到強勁的增長。

  • In terms of market segments, mobile products, smartphones and tablets, will be the growth engine.

    在細分市場方面,移動產品、智能手機和平板電腦將成為增長引擎。

  • In terms of technology, high-K metal gate 28 nanometer and 20 SoC are our growth engines.

    在技術方面,高K金屬柵28納米和20 SoC是我們的增長引擎。

  • I will say a few words about mobile products now and C.C. will, a little later, talk about the technologies, the new technologies.

    我現在就移動產品和C.C.說幾句話。稍後將討論技術,新技術。

  • Smartphones are expected to grow by 25% to 1.246 billion units and tablets are expected to grow by 21% to 307 million units.

    智能手機預計將增長 25% 至 12.46 億部,平板電腦預計將增長 21% 至 3.07 億部。

  • Now to be a little finer grained, the high-end smartphones are expected to grow 8% year-over-year to 325 million units, the middle end 22% year-over-year to 449 million units, the lower end 45% year-over-year to 472 million.

    現在細化一點,高端智能手機預計同比增長 8% 至 3.25 億部,中端智能手機同比增長 22% 至 4.49 億部,低端智能手機同比增長 45% - 同比增長至 4.72 億。

  • And due to the continued performance improvements, which means multi-mode and 64 bit, et cetera and also due to feature enhancements, such as finger print, MEMS, NFC and new standards in WiFi and Bluetooth, we expect silicon content for the mobile devices to continue to rise, silicon content in the mobile devices to continue to rise.

    由於持續的性能改進,這意味著多模式和 64 位等,以及功能增強,例如指紋、MEMS、NFC 和 WiFi 和藍牙的新標準,我們預計移動設備的矽含量繼續上升,移動設備中的矽含量繼續上升。

  • And TSMC's share in the non-memory silicon content of these devices is expected to increase from 45% last year to 47% this year.

    而台積電在這些器件的非存儲器矽含量中的份額預計將從去年的 45% 增加到今年的 47%。

  • As a result, TSMC revenue from mobile products are expected to grow more than 35%.

    因此,台積電來自移動產品的收入預計將增長超過 35%。

  • And just looking a little further ahead, further than this year, we expect to continue benefitting from the growth of mobile products in 2015 and expect to see emerging devices, such as wearables and others to join the line for the mobile products.

    再往前看,比今年更遠一點,我們預計 2015 年將繼續受益於移動產品的增長,並期望看到可穿戴設備等新興設備加入移動產品行列。

  • Now let me ask C.C. to speak to the technology aspects of our growth engine.

    現在讓我問C.C.談談我們增長引擎的技術方面。

  • C.C.?

    C.C.?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Yes, thank you Chairman.

    是的,謝謝主席。

  • Good afternoon everybody.

    大家下午好。

  • I am C.C. Wei and I will give you the update of our 28-nanometer high-K metal gate version.

    我是C.C. Wei和我將給您更新我們的28納米高K金屬柵極版本。

  • Let me recap the history.

    讓我回顧一下歷史。

  • We started 28-nanometers volume production in year 2011 mainly on the 28LP, the oxynitride version.

    我們在 2011 年開始了 28 納米的量產,主要是 28LP,即氧氮化物版本。

  • And since then the business continued to grow.

    從那時起,業務繼續增長。

  • So last year, we had tripled 28-nanometers of business versus year 2012.

    因此,去年,我們 28 納米的業務量比 2012 年增加了兩倍。

  • That in this year, year 2014, the business for 28-nanometer will continue to grow at least by another 20%, and all the increase are coming from the 28-nanometers high-K metal gate version, which is we name it 28HPM.

    2014年,28納米的業務將繼續增長至少20%,所有的增長都來自28納米的高K金屬柵極版本,我們稱之為28HPM。

  • Let me add more color to it.

    讓我為它添加更多顏色。

  • We expect we're going to have about more than 100 tape-outs from about 60 customers in this year in 28HPM.

    我們預計今年 28HPM 將有來自大約 60 個客戶的大約 100 多個流片。

  • Now you may ask it why?

    現在你可能會問為什麼?

  • Why there are so many products that were designed on this technology?

    為什麼有這麼多基於這項技術設計的產品?

  • One of the main reason I can give it to you is the performance, the superior performance.

    我可以給你的主要原因之一是性能,卓越的性能。

  • For example, 28 HPM compare with the 28LP that will gain another 30% of the speed at the same kind of power consumption, or you can say that at the same power consumption -- at the same speed, you will consume 15% less power.

    例如,28 HPM 與 28LP 相比,在相同的功耗下,速度會再提高 30%,或者你可以說在相同的功耗下——在相同的速度下,你會減少 15% 的功耗.

  • And everybody knows that the power consumption in the mobile device is very important.

    眾所周知,移動設備的功耗非常重要。

  • That's why we think we have a very high, good business on the 28 HPM.

    這就是為什麼我們認為我們在 28 HPM 上的業務非常好。

  • Now, furthermore, after the 28HPM, we also offer 28HPC, which is a low-cost version of the 28HPM.

    現在,此外,在28HPM之後,我們還提供28HPC,這是28HPM的低成本版本。

  • The 28HPC is developed to meet the customers' demand to compete in the mid-to-low-end smartphone market.

    28HPC專為滿足客戶在中低端智能手機市場競爭的需求而開發。

  • We expect that this 28HPC will have a very strong demand in the next two years.

    我們預計這款28HPC在未來兩年內會有非常強勁的需求。

  • That's what we have.

    這就是我們所擁有的。

  • Okay, let me give you some information on the competition to explain why we are so confident on this 28 nanometers high-K metal gate business.

    好,我給大家介紹一下競爭情況,來解釋一下為什麼我們對這個28納米高K金屬柵極業務如此有信心。

  • If you still remember that long time ago, we mentioned about gate-first and gate-last.

    如果你還記得很久以前,我們提到過gate-first和gate-last。

  • Still remember that terminology?

    還記得那個術語嗎?

  • All right.

    好的。

  • So, simply to say that gate-last version will give you better performance and a better process control.

    因此,簡單地說,後門版本將為您提供更好的性能和更好的過程控制。

  • As a result, all our customers will enjoy using the gate-last versions that technology to have a higher or better performance than other products which are designed with a different approach.

    因此,我們所有的客戶都將喜歡使用後門版本技術,該技術比其他採用不同方法設計的產品具有更高或更好的性能。

  • In addition to that I'll say that because of the better process control and TSMC's manufacturing excellence, we have a much better yield than our competitor, so that our customer will enjoy the lower die cost.

    除此之外,我要說的是,由於更好的工藝控制和台積電的卓越製造,我們的良率比我們的競爭對手高得多,因此我們的客戶將享受到更低的模具成本。

  • That's what we have.

    這就是我們所擁有的。

  • And that's why we explained that our confidence that the 28 nanometers business continue a very good business for us.

    這就是為什麼我們解釋說我們對 28 納米業務繼續對我們來說是一個非常好的業務充滿信心。

  • Now, let me switch the gear to 20-SoC.

    現在,讓我切換到 20-SoC。

  • That's another exciting news that we have, I want to share with you.

    這是我們的另一個令人興奮的消息,我想與您分享。

  • 20-SoC is a technology that we developed to enable TSMC's customer to lead in the mobile device market.

    20-SoC 是我們開發的一項技術,旨在讓台積電的客戶在移動設備市場上處於領先地位。

  • And this technology we are believe in this year, next year, well I have a very good business to capture.

    今年我們相信這項技術,明年,我有一個很好的業務要抓住。

  • So, what is the status now of the 20-SoC?

    那麼,20-SoC現在的狀態如何呢?

  • We have two fab, Fab 12 and Fab 14 that complete the qual of 20-SoC.

    我們有兩個晶圓廠,Fab 12 和 Fab 14,它們完成了 20-SoC 的質量。

  • And as a matter of fact, we started production.

    事實上,我們開始生產了。

  • We are in volume production as we speak right now.

    正如我們現在所說,我們正在批量生產。

  • So, it's in the high-volume production as we are speaking right now.

    因此,正如我們現在所說,它正在大批量生產。

  • Let me add more information to that.

    讓我添加更多信息。

  • First, there are more than $10 billion had been committed to build capacity.

    首先,有超過 100 億美元的資金用於能力建設。

  • Second, we have more than 2,500 engineers and 1,500 operators right now in manufacturing, doing the 20SoC volume production.

    其次,我們目前有超過 2500 名工程師和 1500 名操作員在製造,進行 20SoC 的量產。

  • The ramping rate will be the fastest one in TSMC's history.

    爬坡速度將是台積電歷史上最快的。

  • Using the ramping rate, you can get the hint of the business, how big the business is.

    使用斜坡率,您可以獲得業務的提示,業務有多大。

  • Another fact to share with you, we have probably -- at the end of this year, we have more than dozens of tape-out from about a dozen customers that they are producing the 20SoC product, okay?

    另一個要與您分享的事實,我們可能有 - 在今年年底,我們從大約十幾個客戶那裡獲得了數十個流片,他們正在生產 20SoC 產品,好嗎?

  • You may ask, good business, how about the competition?

    你可能會問,生意好,競爭如何?

  • If you have a very strong competition, you might -- cannot have too much of confidence on the future.

    如果你有一個非常強大的競爭對手,你可能——不能對未來有太多的信心。

  • Let me talk about the competition.

    讓我談談比賽。

  • I'm very confident that our 20SoC is the highest gate density in volume production at 20 nanometers node.

    我非常有信心,我們的 20SoC 是 20 納米節點量產中最高的柵極密度。

  • And please remember that; highest gate density and a high volume production.

    請記住這一點;最高的柵極密度和大批量生產。

  • I don't see any company today can claim on this kind of production and with this kind of gate density at this time, nobody.

    我看今天沒有任何公司可以聲稱在這種生產和這種柵極密度的情況下,沒有人。

  • And most of our competitors, to be frank with you, they're not even into this game yet.

    我們的大多數競爭對手,坦率地說,他們甚至還沒有進入這個遊戲。

  • So we are confident to have a good business that will contribute to TSMC's revenue -- wafer revenue by probably around 10% this year.

    所以我們有信心擁有一個很好的業務,這將為台積電的收入做出貢獻——今年晶圓收入可能會增加 10% 左右。

  • And with that I conclude my presentation and thank you for your attendance.

    至此,我結束了我的演講,並感謝您的出席。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Thank you C.C. Now looking into next year now, 2015, and perhaps even 2016, I think next year this time I will be telling you that our growth engine in technology next year, a year from now is going to be 16-FinFET.

    謝謝C.C.現在展望明年,2015 年,甚至可能是 2016 年,我想明年這次我會告訴你,我們明年的技術增長引擎,從現在起一年後將是 16-FinFET。

  • Now, recently Intel published some data, which showed our 16 FinFET technology to be behind.

    現在,最近Intel公佈了一些數據,顯示我們的16 FinFET技術落後了。

  • We think that the data is highly misleading.

    我們認為這些數據具有高度誤導性。

  • So I now would ask Mark Liu to speak to TSMC's competitiveness versus Intel and Samsung.

    所以我現在想請馬克劉談談台積電與英特爾和三星的競爭力。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

    下午好,女士們,先生們。

  • I will start this topic by update you our recent development status of our 16-FinFET technology.

    我將通過向您介紹我們 16-FinFET 技術的最新發展狀況來開始這個話題。

  • 16-FinFET technology has been a very fast paced development work in TSMC and we have achieved the risk production milestone of 16-FinFET in November 2013, November last year.

    16-FinFET 技術在台積電一直是一項非常快的開發工作,我們在 2013 年 11 月,去年 11 月實現了 16-FinFET 的風險生產里程碑。

  • And this month, we should pass the 1,000 hours so-called the technology qualification.

    而這個月,我們應該通過所謂的技術資格1000小時。

  • So the technology is ready for customer product tape-out.

    因此,該技術已準備好用於客戶產品的流片。

  • Our 16-FinFET yield improvement has been ahead of our plan.

    我們的 16-FinFET 良率提升超出了我們的計劃。

  • This is because we have been leveraging the yield learning of 20SoC.

    這是因為我們一直在利用 20SoC 的良率學習。

  • Currently 16-FinFET SRAM yield is already close to 20SoC.

    目前 16-FinFET SRAM 良率已經接近 20SoC。

  • And with this status we are developing an enhanced transistor version of 16-FinFET plus, with 15% performance improvement.

    憑藉這種狀態,我們正在開發 16-FinFET plus 的增強型晶體管版本,性能提升 15%。

  • It will be the highest performance technology among all available 16 and 14 nanometer technology in 2014.

    它將成為 2014 年所有可用的 16 和 14 納米技術中性能最高的技術。

  • The above progress status is well ahead of Samsung.

    上述進度狀況遠遠領先於三星。

  • Let me comment on the Intel's recent graph shown in their investor meetings, showing on the screen.

    讓我評論一下英特爾最近在他們的投資者會議上顯示的圖表,顯示在屏幕上。

  • We usually do not comment on other company's' technology, but this is -- because this has been talking about TSMC technology and as Chairman said, has been misleading.

    我們通常不會評論其他公司的技術,但這是 - 因為這一直在談論台積電技術,正如主席所說,具有誤導性。

  • To me it's erroneous, based on outdated data.

    對我來說,這是錯誤的,基於過時的數據。

  • So I like to make the following rebuttal.

    所以我喜歡做以下反駁。

  • On this view graph, the vertical axis is the chip area on a log scale.

    在此視圖圖中,縱軸是對數刻度上的芯片面積。

  • Basically this is compared at chip area reduction.

    基本上這是在芯片面積減少方面進行比較的。

  • On the horizontal axis, it shows four different technologies; 32/28, 22/20, 14/16-FinFET and 10-nanometer.

    在橫軸上,它顯示了四種不同的技術; 32/28、22/20、14/16-FinFET 和 10 納米。

  • 32 is Intel technology and 28 is TSMC technology.

    32是英特爾技術,28是台積電技術。

  • So is the following three nodes; the smaller number 20, but on 14-FinFET is Intel, 16-FinFET is the TSMC.

    以下三個節點也是如此;較小的數字是 20,但 14-FinFET 是 Intel,16-FinFET 是 TSMC。

  • On the view graph shown at Intel investor meeting, it is with the grey plots showing here.

    在英特爾投資者會議上顯示的視圖圖上,這裡顯示的是灰色圖。

  • The grey plots shows the 32 and 20 nanometer, TSMC is ahead of the area scaling, but however, with 16, the data, grey data shows a little bit uptick.

    灰色圖顯示了 32 和 20 納米,台積電在面積縮放方面領先,但在 16 納米的數據中,灰色數據顯示略有上升。

  • And following the same slope, go down to the 10 nanometer.

    沿著相同的斜率,下降到 10 納米。

  • What's the correct data we show on the red line, that's our current TSMC data.

    我們在紅線上顯示的正確數據是什麼,那是我們目前的台積電數據。

  • The 16, we have been volume production on 20 nanometer, as C.C. just mentioned, this is the highest density technology in production today.

    16,我們已經在 20 納米上量產,如 C.C.剛才提到,這是當今生產中密度最高的技術。

  • We took the approach of significantly using the FinFET transistor to improve the transistor performance on top of the similar back-end technology of our 20 nanometer.

    在我們 20 納米的類似後端技術之上,我們採取了顯著使用 FinFET 晶體管的方法來提高晶體管性能。

  • Therefore, we leveraged the volume experience into volume production this year, to be able to immediately go down to 16 volume production next year, within one year.

    因此,我們今年將量產經驗運用到量產中,明年能夠在一年內立即降到 16 台量產。

  • And this transistor performance and innovative layout methodology can improve the chip size by about 15%.

    而這種晶體管性能和創新的佈局方法可以將芯片尺寸提高約 15%。

  • This is because the driving of the transistor is much stronger, so that you don't need such a big area to deliver the same driving circuitries.

    這是因為晶體管的驅動要強得多,所以你不需要這麼大的面積來提供相同的驅動電路。

  • And for the 10 nanometer, we haven't announced it, but we did communicate with many of our customers that that will be the aggressive scaling of technology we're doing.

    對於 10 納米,我們還沒有宣布,但我們確實與我們的許多客戶溝通過,這將是我們正在做的技術的積極擴展。

  • And so, in the summary, our 10 FinFET technology will be qualified by the end of 2015.

    因此,總而言之,我們的 10 個 FinFET 技術將在 2015 年底之前獲得資格。

  • 10 FinFET transistor will be our third generation FinFET transistor.

    10 FinFET 晶體管將是我們的第三代 FinFET 晶體管。

  • This technology will come with industry's leading performance and density.

    這項技術將具有行業領先的性能和密度。

  • So, I want to leave this slide by 16 FinFET scaling is much better than Intel said, but still a little bit behind Intel.

    所以,我想離開這張幻燈片 16 FinFET 的縮放比 Intel 說的要好得多,但還是有點落後於 Intel。

  • However, the real competition is between our customer's product and Intel's product or Samsung's product.

    然而,真正的競爭是在我們客戶的產品與英特爾的產品或三星的產品之間。

  • TSMC's Grand Alliance; that is the alliance of us, our customers, EDA, IP, communities and our supplier is the largest and the only open technology platform for the widest range of product innovations in the industry today.

    台積電大聯盟;這是我們、我們的客戶、EDA、IP、社區和我們的供應商的聯盟,是當今行業中最廣泛的產品創新的最大和唯一的開放技術平台。

  • As for the tape-out of our 16 FinFET, more than 20 customer product tape-outs on 16 FinFET technology is scheduled this year already.

    至於我們的 16 FinFET 流片,今年已經安排了 20 多個 16 FinFET 技術的客戶產品流片。

  • They include wide range of applications; baseband, application processors, application processor SoCs, graphics, networking, hard disk drive, field programmable array, CPUs and servers.

    它們包括廣泛的應用;基帶、應用處理器、應用處理器 SoC、圖形、網絡、硬盤驅動器、現場可編程陣列、CPU 和服務器。

  • Our 16 FinFET technology captured the vast portion of products in the semiconductor industry.

    我們的 16 FinFET 技術佔據了半導體行業的大部分產品。

  • We've been actively working with our customer's designer on this since last year.

    自去年以來,我們一直在積極與客戶的設計師合作。

  • TSMC's speed and productization of the customer's product and our ability to execute for a short time-to-market for a customer are far superior than Intel and Samsung.

    台積電對客戶產品的速度和產品化,以及我們在短時間內為客戶執行產品上市的能力,遠遠優於英特爾和三星。

  • Lastly, I would comment on the mobile products.

    最後,我會評論移動產品。

  • With this 16 FinFET technology and the innovations of processor architecture and various IP from our customers, we are confident that this planned, 16 FinFET mobile product, which is going to tape out to us, will be better than Samsung's 14 nanometer and better than Intel's 14 SoC.

    憑藉這項 16 FinFET 技術以及我們客戶對處理器架構和各種 IP 的創新,我們有信心這款計劃中即將流片的 16 FinFET 移動產品將優於三星的 14 納米,也優於英特爾的14 系統芯片。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Thank you, Mark.

    謝謝你,馬克。

  • Summary; in summary, I want to say the following.

    概括;總之,我想說以下幾點。

  • First, in 2014, we expect double-digit revenue growth and we expect to maintain or slightly improve our structural profitability.

    首先,我們預計 2014 年收入將實現兩位數增長,我們預計將保持或略微改善我們的結構性盈利能力。

  • As a result, we expect our profit growth to be close to our revenue growth.

    因此,我們預計我們的利潤增長將接近我們的收入增長。

  • In 2014, the market segment that most strongly fuels our growth is the smartphone and tablet-mobile segment.

    2014 年,最能推動我們增長的細分市場是智能手機和平板移動細分市場。

  • The technologies that fuel our growth are the 20 SoC and the 28 high-k metal gate, in both of which we have strong market share.

    推動我們增長的技術是 20 SoC 和 28 高 k 金屬柵極,我們在這兩個領域都擁有強大的市場份額。

  • In 2015, our strong technology growth will be 16 FinFET.

    2015 年,我們強勁的技術增長將是 16 FinFET。

  • We believe our Grand Alliance will out-compete both Intel and Samsung, out-compete.

    我們相信我們的大聯盟將在競爭中勝過英特爾和三星。

  • Thank you very much

    非常感謝

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Roland Shu, Citi Securities.

    (操作員說明)Roland Shu,花旗證券。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Happy New Year, Chairman, Dr. Liu, Dr. Wei and Lora, and very happy to see Chairman to host the analyst meeting today.

    新年快樂,董事長劉博士、魏博士和Lora,很高興見到董事長主持今天的分析師會議。

  • My first question is on the 16-nanometer FinFET and thanks for Dr. Liu explaining in detail for your technology strength on the 16-nanometer FinFET.

    我的第一個問題是關於 16 納米 FinFET 的問題,感謝劉博士詳細解釋了您在 16 納米 FinFET 上的技術實力。

  • However, [your] competitor last year talking about your 14-nanometer versus 16-nanometer and now we have 16-plus, so my question is on your -- well, is the 16-plus is improving from the design you were saying or this is just for the performance enhancement or are we going to consider to change our 16-plus to -- even to the -- same as the 14-nanometer?

    但是,[您的] 競爭對手去年談論您的 14 納米與 16 納米,現在我們有 16 納米以上,所以我的問題是關於您的 - 嗯,16 納米以上是否比您所說的設計有所改進?這只是為了提高性能還是我們要考慮將我們的 16+ 更改為 - 甚至是 - 與 14 納米相同?

  • That is my question for Chairman.

    這是我向主席提出的問題。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Mark, would you answer that?

    馬克,你會回答嗎?

  • You don't mind if Mark answers would you?

    你不介意馬克回答你嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • 16 FinFET-plus is a transistor enhancement.

    16 FinFET-plus 是晶體管增強型。

  • For the design -- back-end design rule are similar to 16 FinFET, therefore designer can design on 16 FinFET and re-characterize, upgrade their product performance.

    對於設計——後端設計規則與 16 FinFET 類似,因此設計人員可以在 16 FinFET 上進行設計並重新表徵,升級其產品性能。

  • This transistor, as I mentioned, also can reduce the cell size, standard cell size, and with the enhanced performance transistor.

    正如我所提到的,這種晶體管還可以減小單元尺寸、標准單元尺寸,並具有增強性能的晶體管。

  • That's the way to reduce the chip size.

    這就是減小芯片尺寸的方法。

  • So we do not intend to change the naming.

    所以我們不打算改變命名。

  • I mean this is engineering, this is the word -- this is the name that we chose earlier based on the physical consistent number and we do not intend to change name.

    我的意思是這是工程,就是這個詞——這是我們之前根據物理一致數字選擇的名稱,我們不打算更改名稱。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的謝謝你。

  • So 16-plus or 16 actually is same design.

    所以 16+ 或 16 實際上是相同的設計。

  • What is the 20 and -- with the better or at least a similar performance as the 20 nanometer?

    什麼是 20 和 - 具有更好或至少與 20 納米相似的性能?

  • So this is for you, [Wei].

    所以這是給你的,[魏]。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • The question again.

    又是這個問題。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • I mean -- actually very happy to hear you are so confident about your 16 and 16-plus [FinFET].

    我的意思是——實際上很高興聽到您對自己的 16 和 16+ [FinFET] 如此自信。

  • My second question actually is for Lora, actually for the cash dividend.

    我的第二個問題實際上是針對 Lora,實際上是針對現金股息。

  • So since with have every good bottom line last year and this year and also with the improving free cash flow, so the question is on your -- under what kind of criteria TSMC is considering to increase cash dividend?

    因此,既然去年和今年都有很好的底線,而且自由現金流也在改善,那麼問題就在於你——台積電考慮增加現金股息的標準是什麼?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • If you look at free cash flow, when the free cash flow sufficiently cover our current TWD3 per share dividend level, that is the time we will seriously consider to increase cash dividend.

    如果你看自由現金流,當自由現金流足以覆蓋我們目前每股TWD3的股息水平時,那是我們會認真考慮增加現金股息的時候。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • So, in my model actually my estimate this year 2014, free cash flow probably will reach about [$3.5, $3.6] per share.

    因此,在我的模型中,實際上是我對 2014 年的估計,自由現金流可能會達到每股 [3.5 美元,3.6 美元] 左右。

  • So, whether this is the only one of consideration for the free cash flow to -- above [TWD3] then you would increase the cash dividend?

    那麼,這是否是自由現金流的唯一考慮因素——高於 [TWD3] 那麼你會增加現金股息嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • That's the major element.

    這是主要因素。

  • I will not comment on your model.

    我不會評論你的模型。

  • Other than the free cash flow consideration, another thing is that we look at capital intensity.

    除了自由現金流考慮之外,另一件事是我們著眼於資本密集度。

  • Our capital intensity in the past four, five years has been very close to 50%.

    在過去的四五年裡,我們的資本密集度已經非常接近 50%。

  • That number will come down this year, 2014.

    今年,2014 年,這個數字會下降。

  • It will even come down further in 2015.

    它甚至會在 2015 年進一步下降。

  • So, that add another element for us to seriously consider cash dividend increase.

    因此,這增加了我們認真考慮增加現金股息的另一個因素。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I guess he is asking when we will raise the cash dividend.

    我猜他是在問我們什麼時候會提高現金股息。

  • I don't think it matters to say that certainly 2014 is perhaps the first time, 2014, dividend payable in 2015.

    我認為說 2014 年可能是 2014 年第一次在 2015 年支付股息並不重要。

  • I think this is not out of the question, okay?

    我認為這不是不可能的,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Heyler, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    美國銀行美林證券的丹·海勒。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • I came with a lot of questions, but you answered a lot of them earlier on.

    我提出了很多問題,但您之前回答了很多問題。

  • I've got two, but I first want to congratulate Dr. Chang and your team as well for achieving your three to five-year target, turning around technology, turning around growth in the Company.

    我有兩個,但我首先要祝賀張博士和您的團隊,以及實現您的三到五年目標,扭轉技術,扭轉公司的增長。

  • It's been remarkable to see.

    看到這真是了不起。

  • Also, congratulations on handing off the transition here to the management team.

    另外,祝賀您將這裡的過渡移交給管理團隊。

  • I've got two questions.

    我有兩個問題。

  • First, I guess, as we look at, maybe perhaps for C.C. Wei on the technology side, as we look at EUV, do you agree that mostly likely implementation of EUV appears to be for foundry number one over kind of the one to two layers at 10 nanometer and that you can kind of achieve X number wafers per hour to hit a rollout of that technology.

    首先,我想,正如我們所看到的,也許是為了 C.C. Wei 在技術方面,當我們研究 EUV 時,您是否同意 EUV 的實施似乎是在 10 納米的一到兩層之上的第一代代工廠,並且您可以實現每層 X 片晶圓一個小時來推出這項技術。

  • What exactly wafers power do you need and what time will you achieve those?

    您需要什麼樣的晶圓功率?您將在什麼時間實現這些功率?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Mark, will you answer that please?

    馬克,請你回答好嗎?

  • I think he is asking whether we are considering using EUV in tandem with maybe one or two layers, that's the question, right?

    我認為他是在問我們是否正在考慮將 EUV 與一層或兩層串聯使用,這就是問題,對嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • The current process of records, our current execution plan is -- on 10 nanometer do not have EUV, it's all in immersion layers.

    目前的記錄過程,我們目前的執行計劃是——在10納米上沒有EUV,都在沉浸層中。

  • However, we have been working with ASML very closely and we set a target for their EUVs' throughputs.

    但是,我們一直在與 ASML 密切合作,並為他們的 EUV 吞吐量設定了目標。

  • And together we have the ambition to improve the 10-nanometer cost, if the EUV development in ASML can reach our target, the target we gave them.

    如果 ASML 的 EUV 開發能夠達到我們的目標,我們給他們的目標,我們一起有雄心提高 10 納米成本。

  • And this two party has been working very closely.

    這兩方一直在密切合作。

  • So, EUV is a cost-reduction opportunity for us on 10 nanometer.

    因此,EUV 對我們來說是一個降低 10 納米成本的機會。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Okay, and a quick follow-up on that, if we were to draw that curve that you put up earlier, would that look fairly linear, based on our current models, on your cost curve previously that you had showed?

    好的,快速跟進一下,如果我們要繪製您之前提出的曲線,根據我們當前的模型,在您之前展示的成本曲線上,這看起來是否相當線性?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • That curve is without EUV.

    該曲線沒有 EUV。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Exactly, without -- with the EUV and we imagined a dotted line, do we go through it with a bit of penalty there and then we are back on trend or do you think --?

    確切地說,沒有 - 使用 EUV 並且我們想像了一條虛線,我們是否會通過它並在那裡受到一些懲罰,然後我們又回到了趨勢,或者你認為 -?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • It's the same.

    一樣的。

  • With EUV, our design will be the same.

    使用 EUV,我們的設計將是相同的。

  • We're not going to be waiting for that -- wait for that.

    我們不會等待那個 - 等待那個。

  • Design will be same.

    設計將是相同的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • We're looking at EUV just as a cost reduction.

    我們將 EUV 視為降低成本。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Yes, cost reduction opportunities.

    是的,降低成本的機會。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Excellent.

    出色的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • And then I was going to ask you, you previously on managing these swings in utilization that we've seen over the last couple of years, you're addressing that through production during these cycles.

    然後我要問你,你之前管理我們在過去幾年中看到的這些利用率波動,你正在通過這些週期的生產來解決這個問題。

  • Are there other things that you can do going forward to smooth out these big swings in utilization?

    您還可以採取其他措施來消除這些使用率的大幅波動嗎?

  • And I guess part of the answer I'd like to know what you think industry dynamics will be on these swings.

    我想部分答案是我想知道你認為行業動態會在這些波動中發生什麼。

  • I mean how should we think, is it pretty much business as usual from an order standpoint the last three years or could we see the orders smooth?

    我的意思是我們應該怎麼想,從過去三年的訂單的角度來看,它是照常營業還是我們可以看到訂單順利?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I think that Lora just explained what we have started to do, which is really what the IDMs do all the time, that is they build some inventory when the utilization is slower, they build some inventory and that's what we are doing too.

    我認為 Lora 只是解釋了我們已經開始做的事情,這實際上是 IDM 一直在做的事情,即他們在利用率較慢時建立一些庫存,他們建立一些庫存,這也是我們正在做的事情。

  • Of course, in our case we have to bet right.

    當然,在我們的例子中,我們必須正確下注。

  • But I do believe that we have organized ourselves.

    但我確實相信我們已經組織起來了。

  • We actually -- I wanted to start doing it as early as August of last year, because even at that time we saw that the fourth quarter and the first quarter will be rather slow and -- well, but we had to organize.

    實際上,我想早在去年 8 月就開始這樣做,因為即使在那個時候,我們也看到第四季度和第一季度會相當緩慢,而且——好吧,但我們必須組織起來。

  • Organization, I mean, people have to do better, if not their job, but their bonus is on the line.

    組織,我的意思是,人們必須做得更好,如果不是他們的工作,但他們的獎金就在眼前。

  • This inventory we are building will not be written off.

    我們正在建立的這個庫存不會被註銷。

  • And also we have decided how much reserve we should take, et cetera, et cetera.

    我們還決定了我們應該採取多少儲備,等等等等。

  • So now we didn't get completely organized.

    所以現在我們沒有完全組織起來。

  • We didn't get -- we really didn't get going until sometime in the -- around the middle of fourth quarter.

    我們沒有得到 - 我們真的直到第四季度中期的某個時候才開始。

  • So the effect of inventory building on the fourth quarter was minimal.

    因此,庫存增加對第四季度的影響微乎其微。

  • Now, in the first quarter, as Lora has already pointed out, it does have an effect.

    現在,在第一季度,正如 Lora 已經指出的那樣,它確實產生了影響。

  • I think you said 2 or 3 percentage points of gross margin.

    我想你說的毛利率是 2 或 3 個百分點。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • And is at 2 percentage points to 3 percentage points something that you're modeling kind of through the course of the year or is that in a single quarter?

    您在一年中模擬的比例是 2% 到 3%,還是在一個季度中?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I don't think it's possible.

    我不認為這是可能的。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Or through the course of the cycle or is that just one quarter?

    還是在整個週期過程中,或者只是四分之一?

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I don't think you can model it for the whole year, because we have to look at lower season and up season.

    我不認為你可以為全年建模,因為我們必須關注淡季和旺季。

  • They are meant to be done in the lower season.

    他們打算在淡季完成。

  • So only in the low quarters we will start to build some inventory.

    所以只有在低季度我們才會開始建立一些庫存。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • I misspoke there.

    我在那裡說錯了。

  • I kind of meant through the cycle.

    我的意思是通過循環。

  • Is that kind of your expectations for -- as you go through the cycle?

    當你經歷這個週期時,這是你的期望嗎?

  • At the trough -- each of the troughs, could we kind of see this as something you can repeat on the next correction, a couple of percentage points?

    在低谷——每個低谷,我們是否可以將其視為您可以在下一次修正中重複幾個百分點的事情?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • The answer is no, but it's -- when we see that we need to use it, we'll do it.

    答案是否定的,但它是——當我們看到我們需要使用它時,我們就會去做。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • We don't model it way in advance, okay?

    我們不會提前建模,好嗎?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • And is there anything else you can do to affect this -- the volatility and improvement in margins?

    你還能做些什麼來影響這一點——利潤率的波動和改善?

  • Are there other things in the tool box there?

    那裡的工具箱裡還有其他東西嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We -- for instance, we very carefully control the capacity we build.

    我們——例如,我們非常小心地控制我們建立的能力。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • All right, we will now take our next question from the call.

    好的,我們現在將從電話中提出下一個問題。

  • Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

    接線員,請繼續與線路上的第一個呼叫者聯繫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

    蘭迪艾布拉姆斯,瑞士信貸。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • My first question on the management structure now with the Co-COOs promoted to Co-CEOs.

    我的第一個問題是關於現在將聯席首席運營官提升為聯席首席執行官的管理結構。

  • If you could talk about how the responsibilities would change with their promotion to Co-CEO?

    如果您能談談隨著他們晉升為聯席首席執行官,職責將如何變化?

  • And for yourself, Dr. Chairman, how will your activities change versus before this move?

    對於您自己,主席博士,您的活動與此次行動之前相比將如何變化?

  • So if you could talk about the roles for each of the different Co-CEOs and yourself now.

    所以,如果你現在可以談談每個不同的聯合首席執行官和你自己的角色。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We started with President and the Co-CEO in November, and it has been now two months.

    我們從 11 月開始與總裁兼聯合首席執行官合作,現在已經兩個月了。

  • And if you ask me now, has my life changed in the last two months?

    如果你現在問我,在過去的兩個月裡,我的生活是否發生了變化?

  • My answer is no.

    我的回答是否定的。

  • It has not changed.

    它沒有改變。

  • But I think that my effort, my time has been spent more on the coaching aspects.

    但我認為我的努力,我的時間更多地花在了教練方面。

  • I think that -- I do believe that I do more coaching.

    我認為——我確實相信我會做更多的教練。

  • If I spend 100 hours and -- I now perhaps spend 20 hours of the 100 hours on coaching, whereas in the past, I'd probably spend only 5 or 10 hours of the 100 hours on coaching.

    如果我花 100 小時——我現在可能會花 100 小時中的 20 小時在教練上,而在過去,我可能只花 100 小時中的 5 或 10 小時在教練上。

  • Now, actually, this is an overseas call, is this correct?

    現在,實際上,這是一個海外電話,對嗎?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So let me just explain very briefly what the Taiwan law and customs are in relation to a Chairman's authority and responsibility.

    所以我就簡單的解釋一下台灣的法律和習慣是如何與主席的權力和責任相關的。

  • Basically, by both law and custom, the Chairman of a company has the ultimate authority and responsibility, basically.

    基本上,根據法律和習慣,公司董事長基本上擁有最終的權力和責任。

  • However, he may delegate his authority and responsibility to the President.

    但是,他可以將他的權力和責任委託給總統。

  • He may also take it back anytime.

    他也可能隨時收回。

  • He can delegate any and all, any or all of the responsibilities to the President.

    他可以將任何和所有、任何或所有職責委託給總統。

  • And now these two gentlemen, their titles is President and co-CEO.

    而現在這兩位先生,他們的頭銜是總裁兼聯席首席執行官。

  • President comes first.

    總統是第一位的。

  • They are, in a very legal sense, Presidents.

    從法律意義上講,他們是總統。

  • Now the co-CEO is basically a Western term.

    現在聯席CEO基本上是一個西方名詞。

  • And then in the United States, a CEO usually bears the final ultimate responsibility and authority as a Chairman in Taiwan does.

    而在美國,通常由 CEO 承擔最終的最終責任和權力,就像台灣的董事長一樣。

  • In the US, it's the CEO.

    在美國,它是首席執行官。

  • Now -- so my role in the future is really to convert these two gentlemen from the Taiwan sense President to the US sense CEO, and it will be a gradual process.

    現在——所以我未來的角色是真正把這兩位先生從台灣意義上的總裁變成美國意義上的CEO,這將是一個循序漸進的過程。

  • I don't know whether -- do you think I've explained this clearly, yes?

    我不知道是否——你認為我已經解釋清楚了,是嗎?

  • Everybody here --

    在座的每一個人——

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Randy, do you think Chairman has explained your questions clearly?

    蘭迪,你認為主席把你的問題解釋清楚了嗎?

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • Yes, that was clear.

    是的,這很清楚。

  • And I could ask a second question.

    我可以問第二個問題。

  • With respect to the last conference, you did talk about the battle raging on 16-nanometer in 2015, and I want, I guess, an update on how -- given the technology progress you've made, how you're looking at 2015 with those battles playing out and your thoughts on your market share position.

    關於上次會議,您確實談到了 2015 年在 16 納米上的激烈戰鬥,我想,我想更新一下 - 鑑於您已經取得的技術進步,您如何看待 2015 年隨著這些戰鬥的展開以及您對市場份額地位的看法。

  • And also, if you see any challenge, whether it's market share or pricing with two new -- with Samsung and Intel both more aggressively doing foundries?

    此外,如果您看到任何挑戰,無論是市場份額還是兩個新產品的定價——三星和英特爾都更積極地進行代工?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Did you get the question?

    你得到這個問題了嗎?

  • I thinks it's about 16 --

    我想大概是16--

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • 16-nanometer battle in 2015.

    2015年的16納米大戰。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Right now, we may intend to maintain our position in the foundry business on 16-FinFET as we did on the 28.

    目前,我們可能打算像在 28 世紀一樣保持我們在 16-FinFET 代工業務中的地位。

  • As I mentioned, our 16-FinFET, we have over 20 tape-out already working with our customer.

    正如我所提到的,我們的 16-FinFET 已經與我們的客戶合作了 20 多個流片。

  • And it -- of course, these products will be competing with Intel's products in 2015.

    而且——當然,這些產品將在 2015 年與英特爾的產品展開競爭。

  • And that is that we are so closely working with our customers.

    這就是我們與客戶密切合作的原因。

  • Together, the technology is ready to tape out.

    總之,該技術已準備好流片。

  • We need to work with our customer closely, so that their design and the time-to-market can be catched as early as possible for their 2015 ramp.

    我們需要與我們的客戶密切合作,以便他們的設計和上市時間能夠儘早趕上他們的 2015 年產量。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Well, we live on technology.

    好吧,我們靠科技為生。

  • Just as Intel thinks or says that they do, we do that too.

    正如英特爾認為或所說的那樣,我們也這樣做。

  • So, it's extremely important for us that on 16-FinFET we need to provide good-enough technology, so that the Grand Alliance of customers, of key equipment vendors, the EVAs, ARM and third-party IP developers, all those are in the Grand Alliance.

    所以,對我們來說非常重要的是,在 16-FinFET 上,我們需要提供足夠好的技術,以便客戶、關鍵設備供應商、EVA、ARM 和第三方 IP 開發商的大聯盟,所有這些都在大聯盟。

  • We need to -- our role is to provide good technology, so that the Grand Alliance together can outcompete Intel and Samsung.

    我們需要——我們的角色是提供良好的技術,以便大聯盟能夠共同戰勝英特爾和三星。

  • And we feel fairly confident that we'll do that.

    我們相當有信心我們會做到這一點。

  • So if you talk about our market share, we feel that we'll win a pretty big share of the market.

    因此,如果您談論我們的市場份額,我們認為我們將贏得相當大的市場份額。

  • I don't know how much yet, but I think that they'll be pretty big.

    我還不知道有多少,但我認為它們會很大。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Michael Chou, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的邁克爾·週。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • Actually, it's a follow-up question on 16-nanometer, because you mentioned you should take the lead in 16-nanometer FinFET.

    其實這是16納米的後續問題,因為你提到你應該在16納米的FinFET中領先。

  • Regarding the competition, what's your [pockets of efficiency] versus the [other's] 14-nanometer FinFET?

    關於競爭,你的 [效率口袋] 與 [其他的] 14 納米 FinFET 相比如何?

  • Would you be still the leader in [power function efficiency] versus competitors' 14-nanometer FinFET mobile devices in 2015?

    與競爭對手的 14 納米 FinFET 移動設備相比,您在 2015 年仍然是 [電源功能效率] 的領導者嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • In the transistor design, the speed and power is convertible.

    在晶體管設計中,速度和功率是可轉換的。

  • So from our intelligence, our 16-FinFET plus technology with 15% improvement on top of 16-FinFET is about the same as Intel's transistors.

    因此,從我們的情報來看,我們的 16-FinFET plus 技術在 16-FinFET 之上提高了 15%,與英特爾的晶體管大致相同。

  • So that is what we are targeting at and customer can convert that speed to power consumption.

    這就是我們的目標,客戶可以將該速度轉換為功耗。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • Second question is, could you update your sales proportion expectation for 20 nanometer this year?

    第二個問題,能否更新一下今年20納米的銷售比例預期?

  • Will you try for high-single digit sales on 20-nanometer?

    你會嘗試在 20 納米上實現高個位數銷售嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • I thought I already said around 10% wafer revenue --

    我以為我已經說過大約 10% 的晶圓收入——

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • For the year.

    對於這一年。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • For the year, yes.

    對於這一年,是的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • And so by the fourth quarter, it will be much higher, yes.

    所以到第四季度,它會更高,是的。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • How about the fourth quarter this year?

    今年第四季度怎麼樣?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Negligible.

    微不足道。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • Q4, this year?

    Q4,今年?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Q4 this year is very high.

    今年第四季度非常高。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Q4, 2014 will be very high.

    2014 年第四季度將非常高。

  • That's what I said earlier.

    這就是我之前所說的。

  • Q4 last year was negligible.

    去年第四季度可以忽略不計。

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • With 10% for the total year of wafer revenue, we expect fourth quarter alone 20 nanometer will contribute more than 20% of our wafer revenue.

    以全年晶圓收入的 10%,我們預計僅第四季度 20 納米將貢獻超過 20% 的晶圓收入。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Andrew Lu, Barclays.

    安德魯·盧,巴克萊銀行。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • (Foreign language).

    (外語)。

  • I have two questions here.

    我在這裡有兩個問題。

  • First one is regarding the capacity design for 20- and 16-nanometer FinFET.

    第一個是關於 20 和 16 納米 FinFET 的容量設計。

  • Certainly, as you indicate, we are able prepare 60k per month for 20 and 16k per month for 16-nanometer FinFET.

    當然,正如您所指出的,我們能夠為 20 和 16k 每月準備 60k 用於 16 納米 FinFET。

  • And are we expecting -- and the last time, I remember Dr. Chang mentioned the 16-nanometer FinFET, the capacities were quite similar, 90% switchable.

    我們是否期待——我記得上一次,Chang 博士提到了 16 納米 FinFET,容量非常相似,90% 可切換。

  • So can we (multiple speakers) next year, [in the CapEx] number are they even low in the industry?

    那麼我們(多位發言人)明年能否(在資本支出中)他們在行業中甚至更低?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • No, I don't want to say that.

    不,我不想這麼說。

  • We believe we may capture even more market share than we now think we will and if that happens, we'll spend money.

    我們相信我們可能會獲得比我們現在認為的更多的市場份額,如果發生這種情況,我們會花錢。

  • Now -- but you're right about the 20 to 16 capacity being a -- or 20 capacity being quickly convertible to 16 at a loss that is a lot less than the 10% that you implied, a lot less.

    現在——但你說得對,20 到 16 容量是一個——或者 20 容量可以快速轉換為 16 容量,這比你暗示的 10% 少得多,少得多。

  • Well, you said the 20 -- you said 90%, I think.

    嗯,你說的是 20——你說的是 90%,我想。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So I'm saying it's more than 90%.

    所以我說它超過了90%。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • Switchable?

    可切換?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Switchable.

    可切換。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • So we might see a kind of different case.

    所以我們可能會看到一種不同的情況。

  • [The trends] are subject to change on customer demand.

    [趨勢] 可能會因客戶需求而發生變化。

  • We might see that next year in 16-nanometer FinFETs quite that, we might now see [50%-50%, 40 or 60], we might see a quite different (multiple speakers).

    明年我們可能會在 16 納米 FinFET 中看到與現在相當的情況,我們現在可能會看到 [50%-50%、40 或 60],我們可能會看到完全不同的情況(多個揚聲器)。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • No.

    不。

  • We are not -- by the way, we are not building 60,000 per month capacity of 20 and then 60,000 per month capacity of 16.

    我們不是——順便說一句,我們不是在建設每月 60,000 個 20 的容量,然後是每月 60,000 個 16 的容量。

  • They are not additive, okay.

    它們不是添加劑,好吧。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • It's kind of a floating change based on the customer demand.

    這是一種基於客戶需求的浮動變化。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I think it flows one way, from 20 to 16.

    我認為它是單向流動的,從 20 到 16。

  • It will not flow the other way.

    它不會以另一種方式流動。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • My second question is, since the 14- and 16-nanometer FinFET argument among these top three players so much, why we choose 16-FinFET in the first place?

    我的第二個問題是,既然這前三名中關於 14 納米和 16 納米 FinFET 的爭論如此之多,為什麼我們首先選擇 16-FinFET?

  • I think it's (multiple speakers) back to two, three years back.

    我認為(多位發言者)可以追溯到兩三年前。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Well, the best laid plan by man is sometimes undone by God, okay?

    好吧,人制定的最好的計劃有時會被上帝取消,好嗎?

  • So let me tell you the story, or rather it's not God.

    所以讓我告訴你這個故事,或者更確切地說,它不是上帝。

  • It's customers, okay.

    是客戶,好吧。

  • We actually first got committed to the 20.

    實際上,我們首先致力於 20。

  • We got committed and then suddenly we realized that there was a need for FinFET, for a faster FinFET.

    我們做出了承諾,然後突然我們意識到需要 FinFET,需要更快的 FinFET。

  • This when one of the gorillas in the business announced that they were going to do FinFET.

    這是當業務中的一隻大猩猩宣布他們將要做 FinFET 時。

  • Now if we hadn't committed it already to 20, we might have skipped 20.

    現在,如果我們還沒有將它提交到 20,我們可能會跳過 20。

  • I think we would have skipped 20.

    我想我們會跳過20個。

  • But we were committed already.

    但我們已經承諾了。

  • So that was a good thing, getting committed.

    所以這是一件好事,承諾。

  • The customer was committed too.

    客戶也承諾了。

  • That was a good thing.

    那是一件好事。

  • That's why we've gained a great deal I think on the 20.

    這就是為什麼我們在 20 歲時收穫了很多。

  • But we had to hasten up to do the 16 now.

    但是我們現在必須加快速度完成 16 次。

  • And I think the key, the team in TSMC, the R&D team, they did a tremendous job and now getting the 16 to where it is now.

    我認為關鍵,台積電的團隊,研發團隊,他們做了巨大的工作,現在讓 16 達到現在的水平。

  • That's a brief history.

    這是一個簡短的歷史。

  • Did I answer your question?

    我回答你的問題了嗎?

  • Well, okay, not exactly.

    好吧,好吧,不完全是。

  • So what was your question exactly?

    那麼你的問題到底是什麼?

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • Okay, let me ask it in another way.

    好吧,我換個方式問吧。

  • When you, in fact, three years ago, when you considered 20 and 16 investment, do you consider switchable as an important part?

    當你,事實上,三年前,當你考慮20和16投資時,你認為可切換是一個重要的部分嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yes, always.

    是的,總是。

  • We now, for instance, when we considered 10-nanometer, we considered the 16 to 10 switchability.

    例如,我們現在在考慮 10 納米時,我們考慮了 16 到 10 的可切換性。

  • And you keep saying switchability.

    你一直在說可切換性。

  • Actually, it's just convertibility, one-way convertibility.

    實際上,它只是可兌換性,單向可兌換性。

  • I don't see it being converted back.

    我沒有看到它被轉換回來。

  • Yes, that is an important factor when we consider those things.

    是的,當我們考慮這些事情時,這是一個重要因素。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • So if we want to know the answer, if we invest on 14 instead of 16, what's the equivalent term used for 14-nanometer versus the -- or 16 (multiple speakers)?

    因此,如果我們想知道答案,如果我們投資 14 而不是 16,那麼 14 納米與 - 或 16(多揚聲器)的等效術語是什麼?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • If we invest in 14 -- we are not investing in 14.

    如果我們投資 14 - 我們不是投資 14。

  • I'm sorry, did I misunderstand you?

    對不起,我誤會你了嗎?

  • You said if we invest in 14?

    你說如果我們投資14?

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • No, if 20 into 16, 20 and 14, what percentage (multiple speakers) 20 nanometer can be used in 14 nanometer?

    不,如果20進16、20和14,14納米可以使用20納米的百分比(多個揚聲器)是多少?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • My goodness.

    我的天啊。

  • Earlier decision was not 20 and 14.

    早先的決定不是 20 和 14。

  • Earlier decision was 20 and 16.

    早先的決定是 20 和 16。

  • And the reason here was, well, actually, there's -- I mean, 16 and 14 is the same, what the heck.

    這裡的原因是,嗯,實際上,有——我的意思是,16 和 14 是一樣的,這到底是怎麼回事。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

    匯豐銀行的史蒂文·佩拉約。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • We could talk about 20-nanometer.

    我們可以談論 20 納米。

  • You talked about it being, I think, as much as 30% faster ramp than what you had at 28-nanometer, 20% of revenues by the fourth quarter, that's all the topline.

    你談到它,我認為,它比你在 28 納米上的速度快 30%,到第四季度佔收入的 20%,這就是所有的頂線。

  • I'm curious about the margin impact too.

    我也很好奇保證金的影響。

  • And obviously you get a good ASP premium, but I think it took about, I don't know, maybe five quarters to get 20-nanometer corporate average margin, could you just talk a little bit about the pace, given the accelerated ramp to get 20-nanometer to corporate average margins?

    顯然你得到了很好的 ASP 溢價,但我認為,我不知道,可能需要五個季度才能獲得 20 納米的公司平均利潤率,你能否談談速度,考慮到加速增長獲得 20 納米的企業平均利潤率?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Well, actually, five is pretty normal.

    嗯,實際上,五是很正常的。

  • I mean, yes, 28, it took, I guess, five, right?

    我的意思是,是的,28,我猜,五個,對吧?

  • What is it, five?

    什麼,五?

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • It is my guess.

    這是我的猜測。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • Seven or eight quarter for 28-nanometer, But I can tell you, 20-SoC will be the same as 28-nanometer, will reach corporate average at seven or eight quarters like 28-nanometer.

    28 納米有七八個季度,但我可以告訴你,20 SoC 將與 28 納米相同,將像 28 納米一樣在七八個季度達到企業平均水平。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • And then if I could just get a clarification on that.

    然後,如果我能澄清一下。

  • The smoothing effect to the first quarter to try to take in some of the potential ramp in the second quarter, can you measure how much is that?

    第一季度的平滑效應試圖在第二季度吸收一些潛在的斜坡,你能衡量一下是多少嗎?

  • And then does that then impact the potential growth in the second quarter?

    那麼這是否會影響第二季度的潛在增長?

  • So are we taking two or three percentage points of growth away from the second quarter by pulling that into the first quarter or do you think it doesn't really impact, that there is going to be enough demand you could see in 2Q?

    那麼,我們是否會通過將第二季度的增長拉到第一季度來從第二季度減少兩個或三個百分點的增長,還是您認為這並沒有真正影響,您可以在第二季度看到足夠的需求?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • No.

    不。

  • This -- the so-called smoothing, just helps the margin, it does not affect the billing, the revenue.

    這——所謂的平滑,只是幫助保證金,不影響計費,收入。

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • If I can add one more point, the real purpose is not to lose capacity.

    如果我能多加一點,真正的目的不是失去容量。

  • When you have a surge demand and your capacity is not enough and you lost it, you lose the business.

    當您有激增的需求並且您的容量不夠並且您失去了它時,您就會失去業務。

  • By switching and smooth among quarters, we don't lose the product -- we don't lose the market share.

    通過在季度之間切換和平滑,我們不會失去產品——我們不會失去市場份額。

  • That's the main purpose.

    這是主要目的。

  • So we don't have to build so much capacity, especially such peak capacity probably only exist for a few quarters, which is bad for the Company.

    所以我們不必建設這麼多產能,尤其是這樣的高峰產能可能只存在幾個季度,這對公司不利。

  • Now, you understand that?

    現在,你明白了嗎?

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

    Gokul Hariharan,摩根大通。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question, Dr. Chang, Dr. Wei and Liu and Lora.

    嗨,謝謝您提出我的問題,Chang 博士、Wei 博士、Liu 和 Lora。

  • I had a quick question, just switching now gears a little bit on the back-end side.

    我有一個簡單的問題,現在只是在後端稍微切換一下檔位。

  • We hear a lot about TSMC working on the back-end side, especially on 2.5D, 3D, as well as refillable processors.

    我們聽到很多關於台積電在後端工作的消息,特別是在 2.5D、3D 以及可再填充處理器方面。

  • And you also had given kind of a target of about [$1 billion] revenue sometime in 2015 or 2016.

    你還給出了 2015 年或 2016 年某個時候大約 [10 億美元] 收入的目標。

  • Could you update us on what your plans are on the back-end side?

    你能告訴我們你在後端的計劃嗎?

  • And secondly, also how does that work?

    其次,它是如何工作的?

  • When you work with the back-end partners, are you going to be full-fledged going into the just wafer level stuff or is it going to die level stuff as well?

    當您與後端合作夥伴一起工作時,您是否會完全投入到晶圓級的東西中,還是也會進入芯片級的東西?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • C.C.?

    C.C.?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Do I need to repeat the question?

    我需要重複這個問題嗎?

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Anyway, to answer your question that's on the revenue of reaching the $1 billion for the CoWoS and 3D IC, since we announced that the CoWoS technology and we work on the 3D IC, we're using a lot of key technologies and develop a lot of derivative applications.

    無論如何,要回答你關於 CoWoS 和 3D IC 收入達到 10 億美元的問題,自從我們宣布 CoWoS 技術和我們致力於 3D IC 以來,我們使用了很多關鍵技術並開發了很多的衍生應用。

  • So today we estimate, probably will not go up to $1 billion, but it's around $800 million in year 2016, that's what our estimate today, all right.

    所以今天我們估計,可能不會達到 10 億美元,但 2016 年大約是 8 億美元,這就是我們今天的估計,好吧。

  • What's your second question, by the way?

    順便問一下,你的第二個問題是什麼?

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Second is, is it going to be -- the back end activities, is it going to be limited only to the very high-end 2.5D/3D related products or is it also going to be whatever is going to be wafer-level package, like wafer-level CSP, those kind of areas?

    其次,它是否會成為後端活動,是否僅限於非常高端的 2.5D/3D 相關產品,或者是否也將成為晶圓級封裝,像晶圓級CSP,那些領域?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • The correct answer is, we are now shooting for some kind of technology balance here.

    正確的答案是,我們現在在這裡尋求某種技術平衡。

  • We're always working with that customer to meet their demand, all right?

    我們一直在與該客戶合作以滿足他們的需求,好嗎?

  • So to answer your question, it's whatever -- or whatever our customer ask us to integrate, to give them better service, we do it, all right?

    因此,要回答您的問題,無論是什麼——或者我們的客戶要求我們整合什麼,為他們提供更好的服務,我們都會這樣做,好嗎?

  • So it's not limited to the 2.5D, 3D or whatever it is, all right?

    所以它不限於 2.5D、3D 或其他任何東西,好嗎?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Donald Lu, Goldman Sachs.

    唐納德·盧,高盛。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • So Chairman, (spoken in foreign language).

    所以主席,(用外語說)。

  • First question is, I want to ask the Chairman, how would you -- are you satisfied with the transition so far and also, how the two Presidents would share their work?

    第一個問題是,我想問主席,您對目前的過渡是否滿意,以及兩位總統將如何分享他們的工作?

  • Are they still rotating or not?

    它們是否仍在旋轉?

  • And (multiple speakers) but probably not now.

    並且(多位發言者)但現在可能不會。

  • And maybe give us some details about how the Company is run.

    也許給我們一些關於公司如何運作的細節。

  • And I have a follow-up question on competition.

    我有一個關於競爭的後續問題。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • All right.

    好的。

  • I am quite satisfied with the transition.

    我對過渡非常滿意。

  • And these two gentlemen; Mark is now responsible for sales, marketing, strategic planning, business development, and yes, information technology and materials management, all those.

    還有這兩位先生; Mark 現在負責銷售、營銷、戰略規劃、業務發展,當然還有信息技術和材料管理,所有這些。

  • And C.C. is responsible for operations, all the operations, and he is also responsible for specialty technology R&D.

    和 C.C.負責運營,所有的運營,還負責專業技術研發。

  • Specialty technology incidentally accounts for 25% of our total business.

    順便說一句,專業技術占我們總業務的 25%。

  • So now, Donald, your other question is whether they're going to rotate.

    所以現在,唐納德,你的另一個問題是他們是否會輪換。

  • My plan currently is, I don't plan it that way, I don't plan it that way right now.

    我目前的計劃是,我不那樣計劃,我現在不那樣計劃。

  • However, I deem it's a pretty flexible thing.

    但是,我認為這是一件非常靈活的事情。

  • Tomorrow, I may take one part of Mark's and give it to C.C. or vice versa.

    明天,我可以把馬克的一部分拿給 C.C.或相反亦然。

  • But I'm not considering rotation, per se.

    但我本身不考慮輪換。

  • Yes, does that answer your first question?

    是的,這能回答你的第一個問題嗎?

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Yes, please.

    是的,請。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • My second question is, this is as far as I can remember the first time TSMC comments on competitors, mainly, Intel and Samsung.

    我的第二個問題是,據我所知,這是台積電第一次評論競爭對手,主要是英特爾和三星。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • That's because they picked on us.

    那是因為他們選擇了我們。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • I understand.

    我明白。

  • That is a very good reason.

    這是一個很好的理由。

  • Okay, since we are already doing it, why don't you give us more color?

    好的,既然我們已經在做,你為什麼不給我們更多的顏色呢?

  • 16-nanometer, for example, are we saying that in terms of die size, performance, our product will be very similar to Intel's 40-nanometer FinFET?

    以16納米為例,我們是說在裸片尺寸、性能方面,我們的產品會與英特爾的40納米FinFET非常相似嗎?

  • And also, Mark commented that for the FinFET tape-outs, specifically there's a CPU and server chips, and can we say that TSMC's CPU and server chips will have the similar physical performance as Intel's products today?

    另外,Mark 評論說 FinFET 流片,特別是 CPU 和服務器芯片,我們可以說台積電的 CPU 和服務器芯片將具有與英特爾產品相似的物理性能嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Well, I think, Donald, we have already given everybody enough information on our 16-FinFET.

    好吧,Donald,我想我們已經向每個人提供了關於 16-FinFET 的足夠信息。

  • I think that if we keep giving more, we would be helping our competitors who have picked on us.

    我認為,如果我們繼續付出更多,我們將幫助那些選擇我們的競爭對手。

  • And so, now, we do stand on what we said.

    所以,現在,我們確實堅持我們所說的。

  • We are going to -- our Grand Alliance will out-compete Intel and Samsung.

    我們將——我們的大聯盟將在競爭中勝過英特爾和三星。

  • Our Grand Alliance on the 16-FinFET will out-compete.

    我們在 16-FinFET 上的大聯盟將在競爭中脫穎而出。

  • By that I don't mean that we'll completely exclude them, no, no, no.

    我的意思不是說我們會完全排除他們,不,不,不。

  • We can't do it.

    我們做不到。

  • We won't be able to do that.

    我們將無法做到這一點。

  • But our Grand Alliance, with us as foundry supplier, will capture a large share of the 16-nanometer.

    但我們作為代工供應商的大聯盟將佔據 16 納米的很大份額。

  • You agree with that don't you?

    你同意,不是嗎?

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think if you have a product in mind today, want to get to 16-FinFET, I think that your job will be more secure coming to TSMC.

    我想如果你今天有一個產品,想進入 16-FinFET,我認為你的工作來到台積電會更有保障。

  • And make sure your product be able to deliver in the market.

    並確保您的產品能夠投放市場。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Bill Lu, Morgan Stanley..

    比爾·盧,摩根士丹利..

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • (inaudible - microphone inaccessible).

    (聽不見 - 麥克風無法訪問)。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Smartphone what?

    智能手機什麼的?

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • (inaudible - microphone inaccessible).

    (聽不見 - 麥克風無法訪問)。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yes, right.

    是的,沒錯。

  • Yes, I said that just now.

    是的,我剛才說了。

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • (inaudible - microphone inaccessible).

    (聽不見 - 麥克風無法訪問)。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • No, I'm afraid I'm no expert on that.

    不,恐怕我不是這方面的專家。

  • I mean -- but there are a lot of other non-semiconductor stuff in the handset.

    我的意思是——但是手機裡還有很多其他的非半導體材料。

  • And maybe those people are getting squeezed or maybe the handset maker is getting squeezed, maybe the operator that subsidizes is getting squeezed.

    也許這些人受到擠壓,或者手機製造商受到擠壓,也許提供補貼的運營商受到擠壓。

  • You asked me a general question, which I am not expert enough to answer.

    你問了我一個普遍的問題,我不夠專業,無法回答。

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • Or just to make sure I understand, so you kind of categorized into high-end, mid-end and low-end, do you see that the semi content is going up for each one of these segments, or what's the--?

    或者只是為了確保我理解,所以您將其分為高端、中端和低端,您是否看到每個細分市場的半內容都在上升,或者是什麼——?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Do we data on that, Lora?

    Lora,我們有數據嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • The high-end content definitely will go up.

    高端的內容肯定會漲。

  • But the growth rate for high-end will be slower than the mid and low end.

    但高端的增速會慢於中低端。

  • The mid and low end stay constant, but because the mid and low end has higher volume, which is to TSMC's advantage.

    中低端保持不變,但因為中低端的體積更大,這對台積電來說是有利的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I actually look at more.

    其實我看多了。

  • I look more at our value in the smartphone.

    我更多地關注我們在智能手機中的價值。

  • [Our wafer revenue generated from smartphones and tablets has gone up from $6 billion in 2012, to $8 billion last year, to $11 billion] (corrected by company after the call) next year, no, this year, sorry.

    [我們從智能手機和平板電腦產生的晶圓收入已經從 2012 年的 60 億美元上升到去年的 80 億美元,再到 110 億美元](在電話會議後由公司更正)明年,不,今年,對不起。

  • 6, 8, 11.

    6、8、11。

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • That's very helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Second question is for Dr. Wei.

    第二個問題是給魏博士的。

  • You talked about 28-nanometers and I think the expectation is that you are going to try to switch customers in poly to high-K metal gate.

    您談到了 28 納米,我認為您將嘗試將多晶矽的客戶轉換為高 K 金屬柵極。

  • If you look at the market this year for 28, what do you think is the split between high-K metal gate and poly, is it 70/30, is it 80/20?

    如果你看今年28年的市場,你覺得high-K metal gate和poly之間的差距是多少,是70/30,還是80/20?

  • And can you also talk about your expected market share for TSMC for high-K metal gate and also for poly?

    您能否談談您對台積電高 K 金屬柵極和多晶矽的預期市場份額?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • In terms of TSMC, I would say greater than 80% of the 28-nanometers loading will be high-K metal gate.

    就台積電而言,我會說超過 80% 的 28 納米負載將是高 K 金屬柵極。

  • Bill Lu - Analyst

    Bill Lu - Analyst

  • How about for the industry?

    對行業來說呢?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • I cannot comment on that.

    我無法對此發表評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

    Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question.

    謝謝你接受我的問題。

  • I have two of them.

    我有兩個。

  • The first one is for Dr. Liu and Dr. Wei.

    第一個是給劉博士和魏博士的。

  • You offered some metrics comparing HPM with HP, talking about the speed improving by 30% and power by 15%.

    您提供了一些比較 HPM 和 HP 的指標,談到速度提高了 30%,功率提高了 15%。

  • Would you be able to offer similar targets or similar metrics comparing 28 to 20, and 20 to 16?

    您能否提供比較 28 到 20 和 20 到 16 的類似目標或類似指標?

  • And I have a follow-up.

    我有一個後續行動。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I think it's -- it sounds like C.C., but doesn't -- did you hear the question?

    我認為是——聽起來像 C.C.,但不是——你聽到這個問題了嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Well, the question is that he asked from the 28-nanometer HPM compared with 28.

    好吧,問題是他從 28 納米 HPM 與 28 相比提出了問題。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Go ahead and answer that, if you know what the question is.

    如果您知道問題是什麼,請繼續回答。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • All right.

    好的。

  • If I repeat the question correctly, that is he asked about from 28HPM compete with -- not compete, compare with the 28LP, there was 30% speed improvement.

    如果我正確地重複了這個問題,那就是他從 28HPM 中詢問了與——不競爭,與 28LP 相比,速度提高了 30%。

  • Now how about the 16-FinFET?

    現在 16-FinFET 怎麼樣?

  • 16-FinFET actually improved much more compared with the 28HPM.

    與 28HPM 相比,16-FinFET 實際上改進了很多。

  • Did that answer the question?

    這回答了這個問題嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • And what about 28?

    那麼28呢?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • I cannot hear you clearly.

    我聽不清楚。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Mehdi, are you still on the line?

    Mehdi,你還在在線嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Can you hear me?

    你能聽到我嗎?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Mehdi, I think your question was asking Dr. Wei to explain what's the power and speed improvement from 28 to 20 and from 20 to 16?

    Mehdi,我想你的問題是請魏博士解釋從 28 到 20 和從 20 到 16 的力量和速度改進是多少?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Okay, 28 to 20 got about 20% improvement in terms of performance.

    好的,28 到 20 在性能方面得到了大約 20% 的改進。

  • From the 20 to 16, I'm specifically talking about the 20-SoC to 16-FinFET, the 16-FinFET will have higher than 30% improvement in the speed.

    從20到16,我特指20-SoC到16-FinFET,16-FinFET在速度上會有30%以上的提升。

  • Does that answer the question again?

    這是否又回答了這個問題?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes, it does.

    是的,它確實。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • And let me move on to the second question that I have for Dr. Chang.

    讓我繼續我要問張博士的第二個問題。

  • Over the past two years, we have seen a significant improvement in revenues from Q1 to Q2 and this was followed by seasonal or below seasonal trend in the second half.

    在過去的兩年裡,我們看到從第一季度到第二季度的收入顯著改善,隨後是下半年的季節性或低於季節性的趨勢。

  • How do you see this year evolving?

    您如何看待今年的發展?

  • Do you see this year be any different than the trend over the past two years?

    您認為今年與過去兩年的趨勢有什麼不同嗎?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • So Mehdi, your question is about seasonality of this year, whether we will have a strong rebound in second quarter from first quarter, and then whether we will have a stronger second half than the first half?

    所以Mehdi,你的問題是關於今年的季節性,第二季度是否會比第一季度強勁反彈,然後下半年是否會比上半年更強勁?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Our current outlook is very, very anti-normal seasonal.

    我們目前的前景是非常非常反常的季節性。

  • Our current outlook is that we have -- that the first quarter is the lowest, and the second quarter is stronger, the third quarter is stronger yet, and even fourth quarter is a bit stronger than the third quarter.

    我們目前的展望是——第一季度最低,第二季度更強勁,第三季度更強勁,甚至第四季度也比第三季度強一點。

  • Now that's -- I certainly would not call that anything seasonal at all.

    現在那是-我當然根本不會稱其為季節性。

  • I think that's pretty unique for just this year and mainly because of the ramp-up of 20-SoC.

    我認為這在今年是非常獨特的,主要是因為 20-SoC 的增加。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Thank you, that's pretty helpful.

    謝謝,這很有幫助。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Eric Chen, Daiwa.

    埃里克·陳,大和。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • (spoken in foreign language) Happy New Year.

    (外語)新年快樂。

  • Let me know if I got it wrong.

    讓我知道我是否弄錯了。

  • You just mentioned your smartphone high-speed ASP getting higher (inaudible) US dollars.

    您剛剛提到您的智能手機高速 ASP 正在變得更高(聽不清)美元。

  • And I believe that's probably because of the (inaudible) smartphone from a single core to dual core to quad core.

    我相信這可能是因為(聽不清)智能手機從單核到雙核再到四核。

  • And my point is, probably we will now have the 16 core.

    我的觀點是,我們現在可能會擁有 16 個核心。

  • And the 16 core bit probably will be the next launch.

    16 核位可能會是下一次發布。

  • I try to say is, we probably will see the, what we really call, the low-end smartphone, the [weight] will really pitch up and then that probably will give you some, the ASP impact.

    我想說的是,我們可能會看到我們真正所說的低端智能手機,[重量] 會真正增加,然後可能會給你一些 ASP 影響。

  • So actually my question is the -- your strategy and that in term of the low-end smartphone IC.

    所以實際上我的問題是 - 你的策略以及低端智能手機 IC 方面的策略。

  • Once I look at the China's model IC maker, your market share, probably, that's my understanding, again let me know if I'm wrong, that your market share at a China smartphone IC maker, probably lower than your market share and the global smartphone IC maker.

    一旦我看中國的典型IC製造商,您的市場份額,可能,這是我的理解,如果我錯了,請再次告訴我,您在中國智能手機IC製造商的市場份額,可能低於您的市場份額和全球智能手機IC製造商。

  • So what is your strategy to deal with the wafer plus competition?

    那麼您應對晶圓加競爭的策略是什麼?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • We intend to be a significant factor in the China market.

    我們打算成為中國市場的重要因素。

  • We intend to be a significant factor in the medium to low-end, middle to low-end kind of smartphones.

    我們打算成為中低端、中低端智能手機的重要因素。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Let me say more exactly.

    讓我更準確地說。

  • The other way you talked about the 28, the HPC, that's mainly for the low-end smartphone IC business.

    你談到的另一種方式是 28,HPC,它主要用於低端智能手機 IC 業務。

  • And for the [car], why I choose the 28 HPC, why do I choose the 28 poly style and what kind of advantage are we talking about, and anything in the foundry's technology?

    而對於【汽車】,我為什麼選擇 28 HPC,為什麼選擇 28 poly 樣式,我們在談論什麼樣的優勢,以及代工技術方面的什麼?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Our 28 HPC is still the high-K metal gate version, so the performance will be much better than 28LP, but yet it is a low cost version.

    我們的 28 HPC 仍然是高 K 金屬柵極版本,因此性能會比 28LP 好很多,但它是一個低成本版本。

  • So you can trade off that performance and the die size sometimes.

    因此,有時您可以權衡性能和裸片尺寸。

  • And so you can get your optimum position that depend on your product.

    因此,您可以獲得取決於您的產品的最佳位置。

  • From our point of view, and we work with the customer, that we offer this solution for them to meet the challenges of the market of mid, low-end smartphones.

    從我們的角度來看,我們與客戶合作,我們為他們提供這種解決方案,以應對中低端智能手機市場的挑戰。

  • These are low-end, so you expect the prices to be low.

    這些都是低端的,所以你預計價格會很低。

  • But then for us, we offer the technology to compensate that.

    但是對於我們來說,我們提供了技術來彌補這一點。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • How many percent of performance improvement, how many percent the price is lower than (inaudible)?

    多少百分比的性能提升,多少百分比的價格低於(聽不清)?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • From LP to HPC, I think.

    我認為從 LP 到 HPC。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • From LP to HPC, I'm not going to tell you that how many percentage of the price or something like that.

    從 LP 到 HPC,我不會告訴你價格的多少百分比之類的。

  • I'll tell you the --

    我會告訴你——

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • You realize it depends on the guy that designs it too.

    你意識到這也取決於設計它的人。

  • But as far as the intrinsic stuff is concerned [rather].

    但就內在的東西而言[相當]。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • You are mentioning about the performance?

    你是說表演嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Speed.

    速度。

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • Oh the speed.

    哦速度。

  • The speed, actually, 28HPC is exactly the same as a 28HPM.

    速度,實際上,28HPC 與 28HPM 完全相同。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • So how much percent better?

    那麼好多少百分比呢?

  • C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

    C.C. Wei - President & Co-CEO

  • 30% better.

    好 30%。

  • So TSMC's customer can trade off the 30% speed gain, performance and then trade in with the die size, so that you can gain the die size.

    因此,台積電的客戶可以權衡 30% 的速度增益、性能,然後以裸片尺寸進行折衷,這樣您就可以獲得裸片尺寸。

  • And you don't -- if you don't enjoy the 30% performance, you can enjoy the die size shrinking.

    而你沒有——如果你不享受 30% 的性能,你可以享受芯片尺寸的縮小。

  • That's the idea.

    這就是想法。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay, that's it.

    好的,就是這樣。

  • I assume that wafer price falling back at 10% higher than Poly-SiON.

    我假設晶圓價格回落到比 Poly-SiON 高 10%。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • We're not talking about wafer price.

    我們不是在談論晶圓價格。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay, that's it.

    好的,就是這樣。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • We'll tell our customers wafer price.

    我們會告訴我們的客戶晶圓價格。

  • You're not our customer, we're not going to tell you.

    你不是我們的客戶,我們不會告訴你的。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • And by the way the same question -- the question for Lora and I remember that Dr. Chang just mentioned all the ASP this year will jump by several points and my question when that will get (multiple speakers)?

    順便問一下,Lora 和我的問題是我記得 Chang 博士剛剛提到今年所有的 ASP 會提高幾個點,我的問題是什麼時候會出現(多位發言者)?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • No, no, no.

    不不不。

  • That's not what I said.

    那不是我說的。

  • I said our branded ASP will rise.

    我說我們的品牌 ASP 會上升。

  • It will not jump, it will rise.

    它不會跳,它會上升。

  • Our branded ASP will rise by several points.

    我們的品牌 ASP 將上升幾個點。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • They'll rise also by several points.

    他們也會上升幾個點。

  • When that will get the TSMC's revenue growth at 18% year-on-year when (inaudible), correct me if I am wrong.

    當那將獲得台積電的收入同比增長 18% 時(聽不清),如果我錯了,請糾正我。

  • So my point is (inaudible) last year, because one of the main reason because of branded ASP and I believe that branded ASP last year probably ramped by probably 5% more.

    所以我的觀點是(聽不清)去年,因為品牌 ASP 的主要原因之一,我相信去年品牌 ASP 可能增加了 5% 以上。

  • So are there either (inaudible) or lower, how you are seeing about it this year?

    那麼有沒有(聽不清)或更低,你對今年的看法如何?

  • And you mentioned a 20-nanometer process in Q4, probably will reach the 10% of the total revenue -- 20, I'm sorry, 20.

    而你在第四季度提到了一個 20 納米工藝,可能會達到總收入的 10%——20,對不起,20。

  • And you will reach about 10% on the total revenue.

    您將達到總收入的 10% 左右。

  • In that case can we give the sense (inaudible) that TSMC's branded ASP will rest, like over 5% year-on-year this year?

    在這種情況下,我們能否給出台積電品牌 ASP 將停止的感覺(聽不清),比如今年同比增長超過 5%?

  • Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

    Lora Ho - SVP & CFO

  • Actually, Chairman just gave you the answer.

    其實,主席剛剛給了你答案。

  • He said the blended ASP with the product mix richer, it will go up several points.

    他說,產品組合更豐富的混合平均售價會上升幾個點。

  • So he has already answered your question.

    所以他已經回答了你的問題。

  • So what's your true question?

    那麼你真正的問題是什麼?

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • I would like to know, compared to the last year, (multiple speaker) stronger the confidence on the ASP?

    我想知道,相比去年,(多位發言者)對ASP的信心更強了?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • Well, Eric assume that 2013, our ASP went up by 5%, which we will not comment.

    好吧,Eric 假設 2013 年,我們的 ASP 上漲了 5%,我們不予置評。

  • And he wants to know whether 2014 we can go up above 5% or below 5%, which we will not comment.

    並且他想知道2014年我們能不能超過5%或低於5%,我們不予置評。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Next question will come from the floor and it will be UBS, Jonah Cheng.

    下一個問題將來自現場,它將是瑞銀集團的喬納·鄭。

  • Jonah Cheng - Analyst

    Jonah Cheng - Analyst

  • (spoken in foreign language) Just one small question for me.

    (用外語說)對我來說只是一個小問題。

  • So recently we know the China government, they tried to announce some stimulus for rent to the local semiconductor industry, and we know it is very difficult for them to do the semiconductor foundry, but maybe (inaudible) fabless or semiconductor equipment side, how is TSMC positioned to get this kind of opportunity for business?

    所以最近我們知道中國政府,他們試圖宣布一些刺激當地半導體行業的租金,我們知道他們做半導體代工非常困難,但可能(聽不清)無晶圓廠或半導體設備方面,怎麼樣台積電是否有機會獲得這種業務機會?

  • So that's my question.

    所以這就是我的問題。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Now we have not considered that.

    現在我們還沒有考慮到這一點。

  • We understand in fact that only Chinese fabless companies will benefit from, not companies located in China, but truly Chinese registered companies can -- only they can benefit from this subsidy, foundry or fabless.

    事實上,我們理解只有中國的無晶圓廠公司才能從中受益,而不是位於中國的公司,而是真正在中國註冊的公司才能受益——只有他們才能從這種補貼、代工或無晶圓廠中受益。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • I think, Jonah, your question is, can TSMC benefit from the benefit of the Chinese companies?

    我想,喬納,你的問題是,台積電可以從中國公司的利益中受益嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Well, I don't know about that.

    嗯,我不知道。

  • We do have a lot of business in China from companies, from fabless, Chinese fabless companies.

    我們在中國確實有很多來自公司、無晶圓廠、中國無晶圓廠公司的業務。

  • Our business has been rapidly growing.

    我們的業務一直在快速增長。

  • I don't know.

    我不知道。

  • I somehow doubt that in giving us their business, they are benefiting from the subsidy.

    我不知何故懷疑,在給我們他們的生意時,他們是否從補貼中受益。

  • I somehow doubt that, but I don't know for sure.

    我不知何故對此表示懷疑,但我不確定。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Can I add a point?

    我可以加分嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • I think we will benefit.

    我認為我們會受益。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Oh, we will?

    哦,我們會嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • The fabless companies in China are very aggressive approaching leading-edge technologies.

    中國的無晶圓廠公司非常積極地接近尖端技術。

  • To tell you, our 16-FinFET this year, already some of the fabless companies will be using it in tape-outs.

    告訴你,我們今年的 16-FinFET 已經有一些無晶圓廠公司將其用於流片。

  • So, I think all those fabless companies' subsidy will propel them into the leading-edge technology more.

    所以,我認為所有這些無晶圓廠公司的補貼將推動他們更多地進入前沿技術。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • I don't see how the two are related.

    我看不出這兩者有什麼關係。

  • The subsidy is not for them to use leading-edge, is it?

    補貼不是給他們用前沿的,是嗎?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Because our technology -- leading-edge technology is not yet available in China.

    因為我們的技術——中國還沒有領先的技術。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Yes, that I know.

    是的,我知道。

  • So how does that -- how is that related to subsidy again?

    那麼這與補貼又有什麼關係呢?

  • Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

    Mark Liu - President & Co-CEO

  • Their business will be aggressive moving into leading-edge, which will benefit our competitive advantage.

    他們的業務將積極進軍前沿,這將有利於我們的競爭優勢。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • They will be generally better off after receiving the subsidy, as that allows them to move faster into leading-edge technology.

    獲得補貼後,他們通常會過得更好,因為這使他們能夠更快地進入前沿技術。

  • That's the point.

    這才是重點。

  • That's just like saying that somebody that sells first-class cuisine will be better off if I am making more money.

    這就像說,如果我賺更多的錢,那麼賣一流美食的人會更好。

  • But what happens -- anyway, never mind.

    但是會發生什麼——不管怎樣,沒關係。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director, Corporate Communications

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Well, I think -- yes, I think with these strong prospects in China, we will be very happy to end our quarterly conference call here.

    嗯,我認為——是的,我認為在中國有這些強勁的前景,我們將很高興在這裡結束我們的季度電話會議。

  • And before we conclude the conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within three hours from now.

    在我們結束會議之前,請注意,從現在起三個小時內將可以看到會議的重播。

  • Transcript will become available in 24 hours from now.

    成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

  • And thank you for joining us today.

    感謝您今天加入我們。

  • We hope you will join us again next quarter.

    我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

  • Goodbye and have a good day.

    再見,祝你有美好的一天。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman

    Morris Chang - Chairman

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Good meeting, yeah.

    很好的會議,是的。