台積電 ADR (TSM) 2013 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2013 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2013 年第二季財報會議及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

The event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ms Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the second quarter, followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們第二季的營運情況，然後是我們對本季的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Morris Chang, will provide his key messages.

隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表重要演說。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participating on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from the TSMC site, www.tsmc.com.

對於參加電話會議的人員，如果您還沒有新聞稿副本，可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and they are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，它們受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appeared on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now, I would like to turn the podium to Ms -- to TSMC's CFO, Ms Lora Ho.

現在，我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I will start my presentation with the financial highlights for the second quarter, and I will follow that by providing a guidance for the third quarter.

我將首先介紹第二季的財務亮點，然後提供第三季的指導。

I am very pleased to announce another record quarter for TSMC in both revenue and net income in the second quarter of this year.

我很高興地宣布台積電今年第二季的營收和淨利再創歷史新高。

The record result, once again, demonstrates that our investment in R&D and advanced capacities has started to pay off.

這項創紀錄的業績再次表明我們在研發和先進產能方面的投資已開始獲得回報。

Looking at our numbers, our revenue increase is 17.4% to TWD156b, mainly due to strong demand for 28-nanometer technology, while some customers' need in building inventory for the launch of mobile products in the second half also helps.

從我們的數據來看，我們的收入成長了17.4％，達到新台幣156b，主要是由於對28奈米技術的強勁需求，而一些客戶為下半年推出行動產品而建立庫存的需求也有所幫助。

On the market side, second quarter gross margin was 49%, up 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter, thanks to higher utilization rates, cost improvements, and more favorable exchange rates.

市場方面，得益於利用率提高、成本改善以及更有利的匯率，第二季毛利率為49%，較第一季上升3.2個百分點。

Total operating expenses increased 14.8% to TWD18.8b, mainly due to higher R&D and operating expense.

總營運費用增加 14.8% 至 TWD18.8b，主要是因為研發和營運費用增加。

Despite that, second quarter operating margins expanded 3.5 percentage points to 37% on larger revenue base and higher gross margin.

儘管如此，由於收入基礎擴大和毛利率提高，第二季營業利潤率成長了 3.5 個百分點，達到 37%。

Non-operating items were again of TWD2.4b in the second quarter, up from TWD1.3b in the previous quarter.

第二季非經營項目再次為 TWD2.4b，高於上一季的 TWD1.3b。

The increase is mainly due to the legal settlement income, dividend from the invested companies, and one-time gain from a deconsolidation revaluation of assets.

增加的主要原因是法定結算收入、被投資公司分紅以及取消合併資產重估的一次性收益。

None of these are recurring but together, contributed about TWD0.04 of EPS to the second quarter.

這些都不是重複出現的，但合計起來為第二季度貢獻了約 TWD0.04 的 EPS。

Overall, we made TWD2 EPS in the second quarter, and a single quarter ROE was 27.4%.

整體而言，第二季我們取得了新台幣2的EPS，單季ROE為27.4%。

Let us have a look at the revenue by application.

讓我們看看按應用劃分的收入。

Mobile computing continued to drive our business growth in the second quarter.

行動運算持續推動我們第二季的業務成長。

The revenue contribution for the communication segment further increased from 55% in the first quarter to 57% of total wafer revenue in the second quarter.

通訊領域的營收貢獻從第一季的55%進一步提升至第二季晶圓總營收的57%。

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, revenue increased across the board of all major segments.

環比來看，所有主要細分市場的收入全面成長。

Communication again showed the strongest growth of 22%, followed by computer, 18%, industrial 11%, and consumer, 9%.

通訊再次顯示最強勁的成長，達到 22%，其次是計算機，成長 18%，工業成長 11%，消費者成長 9%。

In terms of revenue by technology, as 28-nanometer continued to ramp successfully, the revenue contribution has significantly increased to 29% in the second quarter, from 24% in the first quarter.

從技術收入來看，隨著28奈米持續成功提升，營收貢獻從第一季的24%大幅提升至第二季的29%。

Riding on the success of 28-nanometer, revenue from advanced technologies, defined as 40-nanometer and below, now already represents 50% of our total wafer revenue.

憑藉 28 奈米的成功，來自先進技術（定義為 40 奈米及以下）的收入目前已占我們晶圓總收入的 50%。

Moving to balance sheet, our cash and marketable securities increased TWD38b to TWD228b at the end of the second quarter, mainly due to proceeds from insurance of US dollar corporate bonds.

轉向資產負債表，我們的現金和有價證券在第二季末增加了 TWD38b 至 TWD228b，主要是由於美元公司債的保險收益。

Correspondingly, our long-term interest bearing debt increased TWD43b to TWD171b.

相應地，我們的長期帶息債務增加了新台幣43b至新台幣171b。

Current liability increased by TWD85m, mainly because we accrued the cash dividend of TWD78b, which will be paid by the end of July.

流動負債增加新台幣8,500萬元，主要是提列現金股利新台幣78b，將於7月底支付。

Looking at the financial ratios, our account receivable turnover days remain flat at 43 days.

從財務比率來看，我們的應收帳款週轉天數持平於 43 天。

Days of Inventory decreased by four days to 47 days, mainly due to the shipment out of finished goods and the lower working process inventory days.

庫存天數減少四天至47天，主要是因為成品出貨以及工序庫存天數減少。

On the cash flow side, in the second quarter, we generated TWD75b from operations, invested TWD78b in capital expenditures, and raised TWD45b through corporate bonds.

在現金流方面，第二季我們透過營運產生了新台幣75b，投資了新台幣78b用於資本支出，並透過公司債籌集了新台幣45b。

In US dollar terms, we spent $2.6b in capital expenditure in the second quarter.

以美元計算，我們第二季的資本支出為 2.6 億美元。

Together with a $2.7b spent in the first quarter, we have already spent about 55% of our guided full year CapEx, which is $9.5b to $10b.

加上第一季支出的 2.7 億美元，我們已經支出了全年指導資本支出的約 55%，即 9.5 億至 10 億美元。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD40b to TWD226b.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額增加了 TWD40b 至 TWD226b。

Free cash flow ended slightly negative at TWD3b.

自由現金流最終小幅為負值，為新台幣 3b。

Lastly, I would like to talk about our capacity plan.

最後我想談談我們的產能計畫。

Our total capacity increased 3% to around 4m 8-inch equivalent wafer in the second quarter and will increase by another 6.5% to 4.3m wafers in the third quarter.

第二季我們的總產能增加了3%，達到約400萬片8吋等效晶圓，第三季將再增加6.5%，達到430萬片晶圓。

For the full year, our 12-inch capacity is expected to increase 17% year over year and our total annual capacity will increase 11% to 16.4m 8-inch equivalent wafers.

全年來看，我們的12吋產能預計將年增17%，全年總產能將成長11%，達到1,640萬片8吋等效晶圓。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了財務摘要。

Before we talk about the third quarter outlook, I would like to brief you one change that impact our consolidated revenue.

在我們討論第三季前景之前，我想向您介紹一項影響我們綜合收入的變化。

We used to consolidate XinTec, one of our invested companies, because TSMC's board representation in XinTec was greater than half.

我們曾經合併我們投資的公司之一的新台，因為台積電在新台的董事會比例超過一半。

Recently, XinTec expanded its board structure by adding three (Company corrected after the conference call) independent directors in June.

最近，XinTec 擴大了董事會結構，於 6 月增加了三名（公司在電話會議後更正的）獨立董事。

As a result, TSMC's board representation is now less than half; therefore, we will no longer consolidate XinTec starting June 30 this year.

結果，台積電的董事會席次現在不到一半；因此，從今年 6 月 30 日開始，我們將不再合併 XinTec。

The deconsolidation impact would be close to 1% reduction of our total revenue in the first quarter.

取消合併的影響將使我們第一季的總收入減少近 1%。

Taking this into consideration, our third quarter guidance will be as follows.

考慮到這一點，我們的第三季指導如下。

Based on current business expectation and the forecast exchange rate of TWD29.83, we expect our revenue to be between TWD161b and TWD164b.

根據目前的業務預期和預測匯率 TWD29.83，我們預計我們的收入將在 TWD161b 至 TWD164b 之間。

In terms of margins, we expect the third quarter gross margin to be between 47% and 49%, and operating margin to be between 35% and 37%.

利潤率方面，我們預期第三季毛利率在47%至49%之間，營業利益率介於35%至37%之間。

This concludes my remarks, let me turn the podium to our chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang.

我的發言到此結束，請容許我把講台交給我們的董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

On the screen, you see an outline of what I'm going say in my message today.

在螢幕上，您可以看到我今天要講的內容的概要。

First, second quarter and third quarter, second quarter was a record quarter for TSMC, both in revenue and in earnings per share.

第一、第二季和第三季度，第二季度是台積電營收和每股盈餘創紀錄的季度。

This strength was mainly driven by the strong growth in mobile-related applications and TSMC's strong position in the 28-nanometer technology.

這一優勢主要得益於行動相關應用的強勁成長以及台積電在 28 奈米技術領域的強勢地位。

We are rather pleased about the results of the second quarter.

我們對第二季的業績感到相當滿意。

The third quarter guidance has already been given to -- has already been given by our CFO and there will be growth in the third quarter and we are rather pleased about the expected performance of our third quarter as well.

我們的財務長已經給出了第三季的指導，第三季將會成長，我們對第三季的預期業績也相當滿意。

Next, let me talk about industry outlook.

接下來我來談談產業展望。

The forecast and the supply chain inventory.

預測和供應鏈庫存。

For the full year 2013, we are forecasting a global GDP of 2.6%, which is unchanged from our forecast three months ago.

對於 2013 年全年，我們預測全球 GDP 為 2.6%，與三個月前的預測持平。

For semiconductors however, we are lowering our earlier forecast of 4% growth to 3% -- 3% in 2013 for semiconductor production.

然而，對於半導體，我們將先前對 2013 年半導體產量成長 4% 的預測下調至 3%——3%。

For fabless, we continue to forecast 9% growth; this is unchanged from our last forecast.

對於無晶圓廠，我們繼續預測成長 9%；這與我們上次的預測沒有改變。

For foundry, we are forecasting our 11% growth, this is the foundry industry, we are forecasting 11% growth which is up from 10%.

對於代工，我們預測成長 11%，這是代工產業，我們預測成長 11%，高於 10%。

For TSMC, we, again, forecast, a revenue growth which is much higher than the foundry industry growth.

對於台積電，我們再次預測營收成長遠高於代工產業的成長。

And that is unchanged.

這一點沒有改變。

Now, let us look at the supply chain inventory.

現在，讓我們來看看供應鏈庫存。

Two things have happened in the last three months or two things have actually become more obvious in the last three months.

過去三個月裡發生了兩件事，或者過去三個月裡兩件事實際上變得更加明顯。

First, the IC vendors' inventory preparation for product launch by several major handset makers.

首先，IC供應商為幾家主要手機製造商推出產品進行庫存準備。

The IC vendors preparing for product launch by major -- by several major handset makers has caused the supply chain inventory days to increase.

IC供應商準備由幾家主要手機製造商推出產品，導致供應鏈庫存天數增加。

Second, the lower than expected sales of PCs and several smartphone models have again, caused the supply chain inventory to become higher.

其次，個人電腦和多款智慧型手機的銷售再次低於預期，導致供應鏈庫存走高。

Now, in April, we have forecasted the fabless supply chain inventory to be 73 days -- I'm sorry, to be 70 days.

現在，在 4 月份，我們預測無晶圓廠供應鏈庫存為 73 天——抱歉，是 70 天。

In April, we had forecasted fabless supply chain inventory to be 70 days at the end of the second quarter.

4月份，我們曾預測第二季末無晶圓廠供應鏈庫存為70天。

Now, we are forecasting -- we are saying that it will be -- it was 73 days at the end of the second quarter.

現在，我們預測——我們說將會是——第二季末的時間為 73 天。

Now, three months ago, we were forecasting the supply chain -- the fabless supply chain inventory to be 68 days at the end of the third quarter, and now, we are forecasting it to be 71 days at the end of the third quarter.

三個月前，我們預測供應鏈——第三季末無晶圓廠供應鏈庫存為 68 天，現在，我們預測第三季末為 71 天。

About the fourth quarter, three months ago, we were forecasting the inventory, again, for the fabless, to reach 66 and now, we are still forecasting 66.

大約三個月前的第四季度，我們再次預測無晶圓廠的庫存將達到 66 個，現在我們仍預測為 66 個。

So, our inventory days forecast for the fabless supply chain has increased for the second and third quarter, but remains unchanged in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們對無晶圓廠供應鏈的庫存天數預測在第二季和第三季有所增加，但在第四季保持不變。

This is an early indication that the fourth quarter may be a down quarter because we expect the supply chain will take serious action to manage the inventory in the second half and the overall inventory, however, will approach the seasonal level by the fourth quarter.

這是第四季度可能下滑的早期跡象，因為我們預計供應鏈將在下半年採取認真的行動來管理庫存，但到第四季整體庫存將接近季節性水準。

I'm talking about the 66 days that we are forecasting, that is very close to the seasonal level.

我說的是我們預測的 66 天，這非常接近季節性水準。

Now, a few words on our structural profitability.

現在，談談我們的結構性獲利能力。

Since '09, I picked '09 because that was the year when I resumed my CEO responsibilities.

從09年開始，我選擇了09年，因為那一年我恢復了執行長的職責。

Since '09, our structural profitability at constant exchange rate has improved by 7.7 points -- 770 basis points.

自 09 年以來，以固定匯率計算，我們的結構性獲利能力提高了 7.7 個基點，即 770 個基點。

On the other hand, the '09 exchange rate was TWD32.87 and the year-to-date 2013 exchange rate is TWD29.66, a change of 9.8% -- almost 10%.

另一方面，09年的匯率為TWD32.87，2013年至今的匯率為TWD29.66，變動了9.8%－幾乎10%。

And we have said several times that each point of change in exchange rate causes 0.4% change in our margin.

我們已經多次說過，匯率的每一個變化點都會導致我們的保證金發生 0.4% 的變化。

So the almost 10% change in exchange rate has caused a 4% change unfavorable in the margin.

因此，匯率近 10% 的變化導致利潤率出現 4% 的不利變化。

And therefore, at prevailing exchange rates, our structural profitability has improved by only 3.8%.

因此，以現行匯率計算，我們的結構性獲利能力僅提高了 3.8%。

Still, I think it's very encouraging and there are signs that the exchange rate might stabilize or perhaps the NT may even depreciate a little bit.

儘管如此，我認為這非常令人鼓舞，並且有跡象表明匯率可能會穩定，或者新台幣甚至可能會稍微貶值。

And if that happens, it would, of course, help our progress in structural profitability even more.

如果發生這種情況，當然會更有助於我們在結構性獲利方面取得進展。

Next, I want to talk about -- at any rate, the message here in the last section is that -- in the last four years, our structural profitability has improved by 3.8 points at prevailing exchange rates.

接下來，我想談談——無論如何，上一節的信息是——在過去四年中，我們的結構性盈利能力按現行匯率計算提高了 3.8 個百分點。

Next, I wanted to talk about high-end, mid-end, and low-end mobile product growth and TSMC's position.

接下來我想談談高端、中階、低端行動產品的成長以及台積電的地位。

Mobile products have been important in driving the demand in recent years.

近年來，行動產品在推動需求方面發揮了重要作用。

And we will continue to enjoy robust growth in this year as well as in coming years.

今年以及未來幾年我們將持續保持強勁成長。

High-end year-on-year growth this year was 18% -- or is 18%, we estimate, from 361m last year to 428m this year.

今年的高端年增長為 18%，或我們估計為 18%，從去年的 3.61 億增至今年的 4.28 億。

Mid-end grows from 167m units to 227m units, a 36% growth.

中階產品從 1.67 億台成長到 2.27 億台，成長 36%。

Low-end grows from 202m to 341m, a 69% growth.

低端從2.02億增加到3.41億，成長69%。

And so this year, we will see high end units to grow 18%, mid-end 36% and low-end 69% for a total smartphone year-to-year growth of 36%.

因此，今年，我們將看到高階設備成長 18%，中階設備成長 36%，低階設備成長 69%，智慧型手機總量年增 36%。

We are uniquely, as a foundry, we are uniquely positioned because of our comprehensive technology portfolio.

我們是獨一無二的，作為一家鑄造廠，我們憑藉著全面的技術組合而處於獨特的地位。

We have solutions for just each tier, high, low, middle, each tier of the smartphone market.

我們為智慧型手機市場的每一層（高、低、中）提供解決方案。

And of course, we benefit from the overall strength of the smartphone demand.

當然，我們受益於智慧型手機需求的整體強勁。

We, in particular, I want to point out, I think everyone knows about that, our 28-nanometer technology has allowed us to be very well positioned in the high end and probably mid-end.

我想特別指出的是，我想每個人都知道這一點，我們的 28 奈米技術使我們能夠在高端甚至中端領域處於非常有利的位置。

What I wanted particularly to point out that we are very well positioned in the low-end.

我想特別指出的是，我們在低端市場的定位非常有利。

Because of the comprehensive technology portfolio, we can -- through silicon area shrink and layer reductions, help our customer to streamline features and to integrate functionalities for their overall lower-cost designs.

憑藉全面的技術組合，我們可以透過縮小矽片面積和減少層數，幫助我們的客戶簡化功能並整合功能，以實現整體低成本設計。

China, of course, is a fast-growing area for mid- to low-end smartphones.

當然，中國是中低階智慧型手機快速成長的地區。

We're seeing our Chinese customers, taking a more important role in providing chip solutions to the market.

我們看到中國客戶在向市場提供晶片解決方案方面發揮更重要的作用。

Many of them have accelerated their cadence in adopting advanced technology.

他們中的許多人加快了採用先進技術的節奏。

As a result, our business from Chinese customers has doubled in the first half this year from a year ago.

因此，今年上半年我們來自中國客戶的業務比去年同期成長了一倍。

And for the whole year, our Chinese -- China region is expected to account for 6% of our total business this year.

而全年來看，我們中國——中國地區預計將占到我們今年總業務的6%。

Next, a few words on the 28 nanometers.

接下來簡單說一下28奈米。

Our 28 nanometers in on track to triple in wafer sales this year.

今年我們的 28 奈米晶圓銷量預計將增加兩倍。

And our 28-nanometer high-K metal gate is ramping fast and will exceed the Oxynitride solution starting this quarter.

我們的 28 奈米高 K 金屬閘極正在快速發展，從本季開始將超過氮氧化物解決方案。

For the Oxynitride solution in which we do have competitors, we believe that we have a substantial lead in yield.

對於我們確實有競爭對手的氮氧化物解決方案，我們相信我們在產量方面具有顯著的領先優勢。

For the high-K metal gate solution, we do not have any serious competitors yet.

對於高K金屬閘極解決方案，我們還沒有任何強而有力的競爭對手。

We believe we have a substantial lead in performance.

我們相信我們在業績方面具有顯著的領先優勢。

If you recall, ours is a gate-last version, and our competitors are mainly in the gate-first version.

如果你還記得的話，我們的是gate-last版本，而我們的競爭對手主要是gate-first版本。

So in high-K metal gate, we have a lead in power, our power is lower, in performance, our performance is better, and should the competitors who are in gate first now switch to gate last, they will be considerably behind us in yield learning, in yields.

所以在高K金屬柵方面，我們在功率上是領先的，我們的功率更低，在性能上，我們的性能更好，如果現在先柵的競爭對手改到後柵，他們在性能上就會遠遠落後我們。

Our continued lead in yield and performance will keep our 28 nanometer market segment share strong for both this year and in future years.

我們在產量和性能方面的持續領先將使我們在今年和未來幾年的 28 奈米市場份額保持強勁。

Now, a few comments on 20, 16 and I want to say a few words on our grand alliance and also, I want to show you a few photographs of our new Giga-Fab which is dedicated to 20-nanometer and 16 nanometer.

現在，我對 20、16 進行一些評論，我想對我們的大聯盟說幾句話，同時，我想向您展示一些我們專門用於 20 納米和 16 納米的新 Giga-Fab 的照片。

20-nanometer SOC and 16-nanometer FinFET are both progressing well.

20奈米SOC和16奈米FinFET進展順利。

On 20 nanometers, we see little competition.

在 20 奈米技術上，我們幾乎沒有看到競爭。

The risk production has started in the first quarter and the volume production will start in early 2014 next year and I will show you the photograph of our brand new fab and the equipment are already being installed, the equipment are streaming in and are being installed, are going to be tried out and the volume production will start in early 2014.

第一季已經開始風險生產，明年2014年初開始量產，我給大家看一下我們全新晶圓廠的照片，設備已經在安裝，設備正在流入，正在安裝，將於2014年初進行試製並量產。

On 16 FinFET, it will start volume production about one year after 20SOC, in other words, early in 2015.

16 FinFET方面，會在20SOC一年後左右開始量產，也就是說2015年初。

Our R&D progress on 16 FinFET is very good, new improvement, is better than plan, and is better than 20 nanometer a year ago.

我們在16 FinFET上的研發進展非常好，有新的改進，比計畫要好，比一年前的20奈米還要好。

And we have been working on -- we have been working with several major customers and many tape-outs, many product tape-outs are planned for next year.

我們一直在與幾個主要客戶合作，並計劃在明年進行許多產品的流片。

But the joint work is essential for -- before tape-outs, of course, and that joint work has been progressing for some time.

但當然，在流片之前，聯合工作是必不可少的，而且聯合工作已經取得了一段時間的進展。

Grand alliance, by that, we mean our alliance with customers, with the design, electronic design -- EDA companies, and companies such as ARM and Imagination Technologies, and companies like Cadence, Mentor Graphics, as well as our own platform the open innovation platform.

大聯盟，我們指的是我們與客戶的聯盟，與設計、電子設計——EDA公司，以及ARM和Imagination Technologies等公司，以及Cadence、Mentor Graphics等公司，以及我們自己的開放創新平台的聯盟平台。

So it's an alliance with customers, with the EDA companies, with the IP providers, and of course, with the key vendors -- the critical vendors.

因此，這是與客戶、EDA 公司、IP 供應商，當然還有關鍵供應商的聯盟。

Now, the reason I want to point that out is that for TSMC, we have entered a new era of competition.

現在我想指出的是，對於台積電來說，我們已經進入了一個新的競爭時代。

We pointed it out almost every time we get together in this meeting and we have been pointing it out for the last one or two years now.

我們幾乎每次開會都會指出這一點，而且過去一兩年我們一直在指出這一點。

Now, in this new era of competition, the competition is not foundry to foundry, it is not foundry to IDM, it is grand alliance to IDM.

現在，在這個新的競爭時代，競爭不是代工廠對代工廠的競爭，也不是代工廠對IDM的競爭，而是大聯盟對IDM的競爭。

Have I made it clear?

我說清楚了嗎？

That is the reason I am talking about.

這就是我所說的原因。

Now, so -- we feel on the 16, on the 20, I already said that we see little competition.

現在，我們覺得在 16 日、20 日，我已經說過我們看到的競爭很少。

On the 16, if we put it on a foundry to foundry, or foundry to IDM basis, we are competitive.

16.如果我們把它放在代工廠到代工廠，或是代工廠到IDM的基礎上，我們是有競爭力的。

If you put a grand alliance to IDM basis we are more than competitive.

如果您以 IDM 為基礎建立大聯盟，我們將更具競爭力。

Now, I'm going to show you a few photographs of our new Giga-Fab, which as I said is dedicated to 20 and 16.

現在，我將向您展示我們新的 Giga-Fab 的幾張照片，正如我所說，它專門用於 20 和 16。

Now, is there no pointer?

現在，沒有指針嗎？

There is no pointer?

沒有指針嗎？

Well, that is too bad.

嗯，那太糟糕了。

But I don't think there will be any problem with this photograph or with the next two because you see the big building, almost in the middle of the photograph and that is our P5.

但我認為這張照片或接下來的兩張照片不會有任何問題，因為你看到了一棟大建築，幾乎在照片的中間，那就是我們的 P5。

Phase five of Fab14, it's located in Tainan and it will start -- it's the first one.

Fab14的第五期，位於台南，即將啟動－這是第一期。

It is just one-third of the Giga-Fab.

它只是 Giga-Fab 的三分之一。

One-third, I will show you the other two-thirds in the next two photographs.

三分之一，我將在接下來的兩張照片中向您展示另外三分之二。

And this third -- of this 16, 20, 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer Giga-Fab will start production, I said earlier in early 2014, and this picture says February 2014.

我在 2014 年初早些時候說過，這第三個 16、20、16 奈米和 20 奈米 Giga-Fab 將開始生產，這張照片顯示的是 2014 年 2 月。

And this particular Phase 5 has a total floor space of [184,000] (Company corrected after the conference call) square meters.

這個特定的第五期的總建築面積為[184,000]平方公尺（公司在電話會議後更正）。

Next please.

下一個。

Can you switch it back please, this is finished.

可以請你把它切換回來嗎，這已經完成了。

The building is finished, as I have said, the equipment are streaming in, being installed, being tested out to get ready for the volume ramp up in early 2014.

正如我所說，大樓已經竣工，設備正在陸續運入、安裝和測試，為 2014 年初的產量提升做好準備。

Next photograph is the second one-third of our 20-nanometer, 16-nanometer Giga-Fab.

下一張照片是我們 20 奈米、16 奈米 Giga-Fab 的第二個三分之一。

And this one is only half finished because volume production will start only in May of next year.

而這款產品只完成了一半，因為量產要到明年 5 月才能開始。

And it's about the same size.

而且大小差不多。

The total floor space is 180,000 square meters, about the same as the last one.

總建築面積18萬平方米，與上一屆大致持平。

Next please, this is the last one-third of this new Giga-Fab.

接下來，這是這個新 Giga-Fab 的最後三分之一。

And you can see that -- you don't see very much yet but you see what is going on, it is very busy.

你可以看到——你還看不到太多，但你看到正在發生的事情，它非常繁忙。

I think the foundation and so on has been laid, etc, etc.

我認為基礎等等已經奠定了等等。

It will start production, volume production in April of 2015.

將於2015年4月開始生產、量產。

And its total floor space is about the same as each of the other two.

其總建築面積與其他兩家大致相同。

Altogether, these three phases of this Mega-Fab -- Giga-Fab, is about 550,000 square meters.

這座巨型工廠－Giga-Fab的三期合計面積約為55萬平方公尺。

Just in comparison, our 28 facility which is in Taichung, is about 400,000 square meters.

相較之下，我們在台中的28個工廠面積約為40萬平方公尺。

So this one is 550,000 and it is dedicated for 20 and 16 and 28 is about 400,000.

所以這個是55萬，專門給20和16、28的，大概是40萬左右。

And I -- all right, let us show the next photograph.

我——好吧，讓我們展示下一張照片。

Without a pointer, this is going to be more difficult.

如果沒有指針，這將變得更加困難。

This is our Tainan campus or complex, and in the upper part, you see the old fabs, old, most of them are less than 10 years old, but they are old compared to the new phases I just pointed out to you.

這是我們台南廠區或綜合體，在上面，你看到老廠房，老舊的，大部分都不到10年，但是和我剛才給你們指出的新一期相比，它們是舊的。

Then right below them, you see the new fabs.

然後在它們的正下方，您會看到新的晶圓廠。

And there is one other side -- it's our backend, that is where our 3D IC is going to be -- that's where our CoWoS is also.

還有另一面——這是我們的後端，那就是我們的 3D IC 所在的地方——這也是我們的 CoWoS 所在的地方。

And now, actually -- yes, thank you very much.

現在，實際上——是的，非常感謝。

I think this will help.

我認為這會有所幫助。

Well, I'm not going to point out the old fabs, but this is Phase five, this is the first of the new phases -- Phase five.

好吧，我不會指出舊的晶圓廠，但這是第五階段，這是新階段的第一個階段——第五階段。

And this is Phase six, and this is Phase seven.

這是第六階段，這是第七階段。

Now, I do want to point out one very, very important aspect of this Giga-Fab.

現在，我確實想指出這個 Giga-Fab 的一個非常非常重要的方面。

Even though you see three separate buildings, but they will all be connected, they will all be -- all these three will be connected by clean-room links.

即使您看到三座獨立的建築物，但它們都會連接起來，它們都會連接起來——所有這三座建築物都將透過無塵室鏈路連接起來。

All right, so much for the photographs.

好了，照片就講這麼多。

A few words on EUV.

關於 EUV 的幾句話。

Last time, I think I pointed out that we had -- we just had a breakthrough last time on EUV -- or I should say, ASML had a breakthrough on EUV.

上次，我想我已經指出，我們上次在 EUV 上取得了突破，或者我應該說，ASML 在 EUV 上取得了突破。

Now, progress has continued, Cymer and ASML have demonstrated an EUV power output of 40 watts on their factory floor.

現在，進展仍在繼續，Cymer 和 ASML 已在其工廠車間展示了 40 瓦的 EUV 功率輸出。

The next step for ASML is to achieve 80 watts of source power.

ASML 的下一步目標是實現 80 瓦的電源功率。

While there is still some distance to reach the source power of 250 watts, 40 already achieved, the next milestone is 80, and then the -- economically desirable threshold is 250 watts.

雖然距離 250 瓦的電源功率還有一段距離，但已經達到了 40 瓦，下一個里程碑是 80 瓦，然後經濟上理想的閾值是 250 瓦。

250 watts will give us a throughput of 125 wafers per hour, which is the economic threshold.

250 瓦將為我們提供每小時 125 片晶圓的吞吐量，這是經濟閾值。

While there is still some distance to get there, we are collaborating with ASML very closely to ensure that EUV can become production ready by 10 nanometer, at least for the critical layers.

雖然距離實現這一目標還有一段距離，但我們正在與 ASML 密切合作，以確保 EUV 能夠在 10 奈米之前做好生產準備，至少對於關鍵層來說是如此。

Next, Specialty technologies.

接下來，專業技術。

Specialty technologies like -- when we say specialty technologies, we mean we include high voltage for power management ICs, mixed signal for audio codec, embedded flash for MCU, MEMS for motion sensors, CMOS image sensors for digital cameras.

專業技術，例如——當我們說專業技術時，我們的意思是包括用於電源管理IC 的高電壓、用於音頻編解碼器的混合信號、用於MCU 的嵌入式閃存、用於運動傳感器的MEMS、用於數位相機的CMOS 影像感測器。

Now, in addition to those that we have been working on for a long, long time, in addition to those, the following specialty technologies are expected to grow significantly next year.

現在，除了那些我們已經研究了很長時間的技術之外，以下專業技術預計明年將顯著成長。

Image signal processors stacked with CIS -- that is processors stacked with the sensors -- mixed signal for fingerprinting sensors, high voltage for small panel drivers, small panel drivers, and embedded flash for near-field communications, smartcards and touch-screen controllers.

與CIS 堆疊的影像訊號處理器（即與感測器堆疊的處理器），用於指紋感測器的混合訊號、用於小型面板驅動器的高壓、小型面板驅動器以及用於近場通訊、智慧卡和觸控螢幕控制器的嵌入式快閃記憶體。

What differentiates TSMC in the specialty technology foundry arena besides the fact that we have the largest capacity in the broadest scope is our superior ability to integrate specialty devices, flash, CIS, RF, high voltage, power and MEMS, we integrate those specialty devices into our strong CMOS baseline while maintaining our CMOS IP compatibility.

台積電在專業技術代工領域的獨特之處，除了在最廣泛的範圍內擁有最大的產能之外，還在於我們具有卓越的整合專業裝置、快閃記憶體、CIS、RF、高壓、功率和MEMS 的能力，我們將這些專業元件整合到我們強大的 CMOS 基線，同時保持我們的 CMOS IP 相容性。

Those are all the comments I have prepared.

這些就是我準備的所有評論。

I believe we are now open for Q&A.

我相信我們現在可以進行問答。

Right.

正確的。

Yes.

是的。

This concludes our prepared statement.

我們準備好的聲明到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家，一次將問題限制在兩個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor as well as from the call.

問題將透過現場和電話會議進行。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it into English before our CEO or CFO answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的執行長或財務長回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star then 1 on your telephone keypad now.

對於通話中的人員，如果您想提問，請立即按下電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按 1。

Questions will be taken in order in which they are received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the question queue, please press the pound or the hash key.

如果您隨時想將自己從問題佇列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在我們開始問答環節。

First question comes from the floor, and that would be Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

第一個問題來自與會者，是瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The first question on the margins short term and then medium term.

第一個問題是關於短期和中期的邊緣問題。

For third-quarter guidance, I just want to see why you're guiding a decline for margins on a small increase in sales.

對於第三季的指導，我只是想知道為什麼你們會在銷售額小幅成長的情況下指導利潤率下降。

And into 2014 as you ramp 20 nanometer, with a steep ramp, do you see any margin impact in the early stage of 20 nanometer?

進入 2014 年，當你以陡峭的速度加速 20 奈米時，你認為 20 奈米的早期階段有任何利潤影響嗎？

Randy, you're asking for the third-quarter guidance for the margin.

蘭迪，您要求提供第三季的利潤指引。

We are adding capacity in third quarter.

我們將在第三季增加產能。

I was talking about another 6.5% leading-edge technology.

我說的是另外6.5%的尖端技術。

For third quarter, as Chairman just mentioned, we are going through the inventory corrections period.

第三季度，正如董事長剛才所提到的，我們正在經歷庫存調整期。

So we expect the third-quarter utilization will be lower than second quarter.

因此我們預計第三季的利用率將低於第二季。

That's the main reason that the revenue improves but the margin doesn't improve.

這是收入提高但利潤率沒有提高的主要原因。

You also asked about going to 2014 when we ramp 20 nanometer, how that will affect our margin.

您也詢問到 2014 年我們將推出 20 奈米技術，這將如何影響我們的利潤率。

Every new technology, when it comes to the mass production, it in early beginning it always starts with lower margins.

每一項新技術，當涉及大規模生產時，它在早期總是以較低的利潤開始。

But when the quantity starts to go up, maybe after seven or eight quarters, the margin will be getting closer to corporate average.

但當數量開始增加時，也許七、八個季度後，利潤率將越來越接近企業平均值。

So we expect that will happen for 20-nanometer as well.

所以我們預計 20 奈米也會發生這種情況。

Can I have one follow-up on that question.

我可以對這個問題進行跟進嗎？

If you expect, even with 20 ramping up, structural profitability will continue to see at least maintain or how do you see structural profitability and depreciation in 2014?

如果您預計，即使 20 成長，結構性獲利能力仍將至少維持不變，或者您如何看待 2014 年的結構性獲利能力和折舊？

We are confident we can maintain the structural profitability.

我們有信心保持結構性獲利。

Okay.

好的。

The second question, and it probably relates to some of the pictures of the big fabs that are getting built, and I want to ask if you've any concern.

第二個問題，可能與一些正在建造的大型晶圓廠的圖片有關，我想問您是否有任何擔憂。

You spend the CapEx.

您花費資本支出。

I think some of these large customers switch foundries, so that they switch foundries every node.

我認為其中一些大客戶更換了代工廠，因此他們在每個節點上都更換了代工廠。

And if you've put a lot of investment, just curious to see assurance that if you bring in some of these projects you can maintain that business for several nodes.

如果您投入了大量投資，只是想知道如果您引入其中一些項目，您可以在多個節點上維護該業務。

Switch foundries meaning--?

切換代工廠意味著——？

For TSMC, if you put in this fab capacity targeting some large customers, just the assurance you can maintain that customer relationship for several nodes.

對於台積電來說，如果你把這個晶圓廠產能瞄準一些大客戶，就可以確保你可以維持多個節點的客戶關係。

Well, you realize that we don't always put in the amount of capacity that the customer requests.

好吧，您意識到我們並不總是提供客戶要求的容量。

And we do make our own estimates and so on.

我們確實做出了自己的估計等等。

We have not and will not always follow the customers' estimates for their capacity needs.

我們沒有也不會總是遵循客戶對其容量需求的估計。

So I don't know if that answers your question much.

所以我不知道這是否能回答你的問題。

Your question, as I understood it, was that you put in the capacity and the customer switches foundries, etc.

據我了解，你的問題是你投入了產能，而客戶則更換了代工廠等。

My answer is that we try to anticipate what foundries will switch.

我的回答是，我們會試著預測哪些代工廠將進行轉變。

You still look a little puzzled.

你看起來還是有點困惑。

Maybe to rephrase it, because some of these customers are getting quite large in amount of capacity demand.

也許換句話說，因為其中一些客戶的容量需求變得相當大。

So for product generation, you build capacity for that customer because it's a huge volume at the next node it switches.

因此，對於產品生成，您可以為該客戶建立容量，因為它切換的下一個節點的容量很大。

Like if you --

就像如果你——

They switch what?

他們切換什麼？

Switch their different -- switch their business to another foundry.

改變他們的差異—將他們的業務轉移到另一家代工廠。

That does not happen.

那不會發生。

That does not happen, no.

那不會發生，不是。

You must be -- your experience must be with commodity products.

你必須－你的經驗必須是與商品相關的。

I'm sorry to say that because obviously your experience is not only with commodity products.

我很遺憾地說，因為顯然您的體驗不僅限於商品。

But I can assure you that -- and I kept emphasizing all through the last 10, 15 years that our strength was in three directions, technology, manufacturing and customer relationships.

但我可以向你們保證，在過去的 10 年、15 年裡我一直強調我們的優勢在於三個方向：科技、製造和客戶關係。

So when you say that customer works with us and suddenly (inaudible) works with us, we build the capacity and then suddenly after the capacity's built, he switches a foundry.

因此，當你說客戶與我們合作並突然（聽不清楚）與我們合作時，我們建立了產能，然後在產能建立後，他突然更換了一家代工廠。

That does not happen.

那不會發生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

For his sake as well as for ours.

為了他，也為了我們。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

Next question would be coming from the floor again, from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

下一個問題將再次由德意志銀行 Michael Chou 提出。

Chairman, you gave guidance before regarding 20-nanometer sales portion in Q2 with low single digit.

主席，您之前對第二季 20 奈米銷售份額給出了低個位數的指導。

Do you have any revision for that or do you maintain the same guidance?

您對此有何修改或保持相同的指導嗎？

So Q2?

那麼第二季呢？

Q2 next year, how much 20 nanometer will account for our revenue?

Q2 明年20奈米占我們的營收有多少？

Well, Q2 next year, I don't know.

好吧，明年第二季度，我不知道。

But for whole year next year, I expect it will be the high single-digit percent of our total revenue.

但對於明年全年，我預計這將是我們總收入的高個位數百分比。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Second question --.

第二個問題——。

I think that's correct, isn't it?

我認為這是正確的，不是嗎？

For the whole year next year, I think 20 nanometers will be in the high single-digit percent of our total revenue.

明年全年，我認為 20 奈米將占我們總收入的高個位數百分比。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question is what is the outlook by segment in Q3 this year?

我的第二個問題是，今年第三季各細分市場的前景如何？

What --?

什麼 - ？

Segment outlook.

分部展望。

I think Lora --

我認為洛拉——

Let me take that.

讓我來吧。

In third quarter, computer will decline the most, followed by communications with modest decline.

第三季度，電腦下降幅度最大，其次是通信，下降幅度較小。

We expect consumer industrial for TSMC will go up in third quarter.

我們預期台積電第三季消費產業將會成長。

Next question, will still be coming from the floor and it will be from JPMorgan, JJ Park.

下一個問題仍將來自現場，並將由摩根大通 JJ Park 提出。

Okay.

好的。

First of all, congratulations for another very good quarter.

首先，恭喜又一個非常好的季度。

Very impressive.

非常令人印象深刻。

The first question is what's your view on the longer life cycle for the 20 nano given increasing capital intensity moving down to 20 nano and then FinFET.

第一個問題是，鑑於資本密集度不斷增加，轉向 20 奈米，然後是 FinFET，您對 20 奈米更長的生命週期有何看法。

I believe the 20 nano, the life cycle could be longer than the previous technology.

我相信20奈米，生命週期可能比以前的技術更長。

So your question is whether or not 20 nanometer will have a shorter lifecycle as compared to prior nodes.

所以你的問題是，與之前的節點相比，20 奈米的生命週期是否會更短。

I think yes, probably.

我想是的，可能是的。

But, well, I said our Giga-Fab is for both 20 and 16.

但是，好吧，我說我們的 Giga-Fab 適用於 20 和 16。

So yes, 20 will -- I think will have probably, I'm not sure yet, a shorter life than 28.

所以，是的，20 歲的壽命可能會比 28 歲短，但我還不確定。

But then we can rather quickly convert the capacity to 16.

但隨後我們可以很快地將容量轉換為 16。

I think 20 and 16 together will have a longer life than 28.

我認為20歲和16歲加起來會比28歲的壽命更長。

Well, actually everything has a long life in TSMC anyway.

好吧，實際上無論如何，台積電的一切都有很長的壽命。

We are still making 1 micron or -- 1 micron still, yes?

我們仍在製造 1 微米，或者——仍然是 1 微米，是嗎？

0.5, well, I guess we're not making 1 micron any more.

0.5，好吧，我想我們不會再生產 1 微米了。

0.5 micron.

0.5微米。

And so when you say short life or long life, if you refer to a customer's usage, a specific customer's usage, yes, maybe.

因此，當您說壽命短或壽命長時，如果您指的是客戶的使用情況，特定客戶的使用情況，是的，也許吧。

But we have second wave, third wave and we have the specialty technology users who are something outside the second wave and third wave.

但我們有第二波、第三波，我們有第二波和第三波以外的專業技術用戶。

We have second wave, third wave, large users, and then we have, outside the second, third waves, we have the specialty technology, who in time sequence are usually in the second, third or fourth or fifth wave.

我們有第二波、第三波，有大用戶，然後我們有，在第二波、第三波之外，我們有專業技術，按時間順序通常在第二波、第三波、第四波、第五波。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is you mentioned about the competitive advantages with the gate-last.

我的第二個問題是你提到了後門的競爭優勢。

And (inaudible) your competitor is going to use the gate-last from the 20 nano.

（聽不清楚）您的競爭對手將使用 20 nano 的後閘極。

So based on your experience how difficult and how much time they require to commercialize gate-last at the 20 nano from the gate-first?

那麼根據您的經驗，從先柵極到 20 奈米，將後閘極商業化需要多長時間？

So your question is with regard to whether or not there will be competitors switching to gate-last at 28 nanometer.

所以你的問題是是否會有競爭對手轉向 28 奈米的後閘極技術。

No, from the 20 nano.

不，從20奈米開始。

In 20 nano.

20奈米。

Switching at 20 nanometer to gate-last.

在 20 奈米處切換至後柵極。

So how much time and how difficult it will be for such a competitor to switch.

那麼這樣的競爭對手要轉變需要多久、多困難。

I don't know.

我不知道。

It depends on his capability, I think -- I don't know.

我想這取決於他的能力——我不知道。

I think it takes a long time, that's for sure.

我認為這需要很長時間，這是肯定的。

A year, maybe even longer.

一年，甚至更長。

And do I see anybody switching, any competitors?

我是否看到有人改變，有競爭對手嗎？

I don't even know the answer to that.

我甚至不知道答案。

I do know that we don't see any serious competition at the 20-nanometer node.

我確實知道我們在 20 奈米節點上沒有看到任何激烈的競爭。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

I think it's about time that we should take a question, next question, from the call.

我認為現在是我們應該在電話會議中回答下一個問題的時候了。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的下一個來電者。

The next question from the call comes from Steven Pelayo from HSBC.

電話中的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的史蒂文·佩拉約（Steven Pelayo）。

Please ask your questions.

請提出您的問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I'm curious about you mentioned third-quarter utilization rates declining slightly.

我很好奇你提到第三季利用率略有下降。

You mentioned the possibility of third-quarter revenues also being down.

您提到第三季營收也可能下降。

You also talked about capacity being up a lot in the third quarter.

您也談到第三季產能大幅增加。

So I guess I would like to hear you comment on utilization rates by node.

所以我想我想聽聽您對節點利用率的評論。

And in particular are you keeping the leading-edge nodes full?

特別是您是否保持前沿節點滿載？

And if not, the negative leverage effect the margins if the leading edge is not fully utilized.

如果沒有，如果領先優勢沒有充分利用，負槓桿會影響利潤。

Well, first to answer your question generally, I do think actually about a year ago I predicted almost the same phenomenon for the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year about a year ago.

好吧，首先總體回答你的問題，我確實認為實際上大約一年前我預測了去年第四季度和今年第一季幾乎相同的現象。

In fact, it was a year ago that I said that the fourth quarter might be down and the first quarter might also be down, fourth quarter last year, first quarter this year might also be.

其實我在一年前就說過第四季可能會下降，第一季也可能會下降，去年第四季度，今年第一季也可能會下降。

But the second quarter we would see a sharp rebound.

但第二季我們會看到急劇反彈。

Said that in July of 2012.

是2012年7月說的。

And it happened that way, pretty much.

事情幾乎就是這樣發生的。

And now, this year, July 2013, and I see almost the same thing, except I think there is a bit of difference.

現在，今年，2013 年 7 月，我看到了幾乎相同的事情，只是我認為有點不同。

The fourth quarter down could be a little more severe than the last year, than the fourth quarter down last year.

第四季的下降可能比去年更嚴重一些，比去年第四季的下降更嚴重。

And, however, the first quarter down will not be as severe as the first quarter down this year.

不過，第一季的下滑不會像今年第一季那麼嚴重。

Am I making myself clear?

我說清楚了嗎？

I think that last year generally our fourth quarter was down by about 7%.

我認為去年第四季總體下降了 7% 左右。

And I just said now that -- well anyway.

我現在剛剛說過──無論如何。

It could be a little more severe than that.

情況可能比這更嚴重一些。

And the first quarter, however, could be reasonably flat from the fourth quarter.

然而，第一季的情況可能與第四季相當持平。

And, however, the second quarter, next year's second quarter will rebound.

不過，第二季、明年第二季將會反彈。

It's going to be, I believe, a very strong one, just as this year's second quarter rebound was.

我相信，這將是一個非常強勁的反彈，就像今年第二季的反彈一樣。

So that's answering the question generally.

這就是一般性地回答這個問題。

And I think that our third quarter, by the way, you said the third quarter -- you said fourth quarter will also be down.

順便說一句，我認為我們的第三季度，你說第三季度 - 你說第四季度也會下降。

Our third quarter is up; it's not down.

我們的第三季已經結束；它沒有下降。

Okay?

好的？

And but you asked whether the margin, you said --?

但你問有沒有保證金，你說－－？

Yes, Steve's question was if the loading rate, (multiple speakers --.

是的，史蒂夫的問題是加載率（多個揚聲器 --.

I was just asking relative to the utilization rate by node if the leading edge isn't as fully utilized, does it have a more profound impact to your margins.

我只是問相對於節點的利用率，如果前沿沒有充分利用，它是否會對您的利潤產生更深遠的影響。

28 nanometer is still fully loaded in the third quarter.

28納米第三季依然滿載。

And how well it will be loaded in the fourth quarter is, at this point, unknown.

目前尚不清楚第四季度的加載情況如何。

But I think that it may be less than 100% loaded in the fourth quarter.

但我認為第四季加載率可能還不到100%。

Now, the other nodes, 45 and 65, etc., well, they will not be -- some of them are still fully loaded in the third quarter but may not be fully loaded in the fourth quarter.

現在，其他節點，45 和 65 等，嗯，它們不會——其中一些在第三季度仍然滿載，但在第四季度可能不會滿載。

But we are really not giving fourth-quarter guidance right now.

但我們現在確實沒有給出第四季的指導。

So I want to limit the guidance.

所以我想限制指導。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one final question.

最後還有一個問題。

This is really just a clarification.

這實際上只是一個澄清。

I think last quarter you spoke about 20 nanometer in its first year being bigger than what 28 nanometer was.

我認為上個季度您談到 20 奈米在其第一年比 28 奈米更大。

This quarter you're now saying 20 nanometer is going to be high single-digit percentages of revenue, so I guess it depends what we think the total revenue number's going to be.

這個季度，你說 20 奈米將佔收入的高個位數百分比，所以我想這取決於我們認為的總收入數字將是多少。

I'm just curious, is there a change there on what you think the total dollar contribution can be next year for 28 nanometer -- for 20 nanometer at TSMC?

我只是很好奇，您認為明年台積電 28 奈米 - 20 奈米的總美元貢獻是否會改變？

Well actually, the first year of 28 nanometer was 2011.

事實上，28 奈米元年是 2011 年。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

The first year of 28 nanometer was 2011.

28奈米元年是2011年。

And I'm quite sure that in 2011 28 nanometer did not reach a percent of our total revenue.

我非常確定 2011 年 28 奈米技術還沒有達到我們總收入的百分之一。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, I think we will still keep it on the call, so operator, please proceed to the next caller.

下一個問題，我想我們仍然會繼續通話，所以接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

Your next question from the phone comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

您的下一個電話問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Please ask your question.

請提出你的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Dr. Chang, early on in your prepared remarks you talked about the growth rate of -- for high-end smartphone peaking and the low to mid range is growing at a faster rate.

張博士，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了高端智慧型手機的成長率 - 高階智慧型手機達到頂峰，而中低階智慧型手機正在以更快的速度成長。

And also you talked about the very expensive and very extensive 20 and 16 nanometer that has gone to construction.

您還談到了已經投入建設的非常昂貴且非常廣泛的 20 和 16 奈米技術。

So do you think that profitability for the new smartphones, given the fact that they're going to be selling at a lower price, could help bringing up demand to fill these Giga fabs?

那麼，考慮到新款智慧型手機將以較低的價格出售，您認為它們的獲利能力是否有助於提高這些千兆工廠的需求？

Mehdi, I think I am able to capture the first part of your question, but the second part, after you said that we're building bigger fabs for 20 and 16, what was -- can you repeat that part again?

Mehdi，我想我能夠抓住你問題的第一部分，但第二部分，在你說我們正在為 20 和 16 建造更大的晶圓廠之後，什麼是——你能再重複一遍嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Let me repeat the entire question.

讓我重複一下整個問題。

I'm just trying to better understand what Dr. Chang thinks about the trend in the smartphone and the trend towards the low end and getting now profitability for the fabless companies to migrate to 20 and 16 nanometer nodes.

我只是想更了解張博士對智慧型手機趨勢和低端趨勢的看法，以及無晶圓廠公司現在遷移到 20 和 16 奈米節點的獲利能力。

So you want to -- your question is based upon the trends, the smartphone trend is towards faster growth on the lower end, whether or not there's still the need to fast ramp the leading-edge nodes such as 20 and 16.

所以你想——你的問題是基於趨勢，智慧型手機的趨勢是在低端實現更快的成長，無論是否仍需要快速提升 20 和 16 等前沿節點。

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You confirmed that that was his question, but would you repeat the question to me?

你確認這是他的問題，但是你能向我重複這個問題嗎？

Right.

正確的。

His question is the trend in smartphones is shifting towards higher growth at low end, but we are still building very fast a leading-edge capacity at 20 and 16.

他的問題是，智慧型手機的趨勢正在轉向低端更高的成長，但我們仍在快速建立 20 和 16 的領先產能。

So we are still building --?

所以我們仍在建設──？

Leading-edge capacity at 20 and 16.

20 和 16 的領先容量。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I think the question was whether the low end will migrate to 16.

我認為問題在於低端是否會遷移到 16。

I think so, very definitely.

我想是的，非常肯定。

Well, but it's only a question of time.

好吧，但這只是時間問題。

And I don't frankly know.

坦白說我也不知道。

16, well, even the leading edge won't start using 16 until 2015.

16，好吧，即使是領先優勢也要到 2015 年才會開始使用 16。

And I think that the lower end, the lower end manufacturers will probably be, I would say, at least two years behind, 2017.

我認為，低端製造商可能會比 2017 年落後至少兩年。

Are you worried about -- is he worried about our capacity utilization for 16?

您是否擔心—他是否擔心我們 16 的產能利用率？

Well, I don't know what I can say to assure you again and again and again.

好吧，我不知道我能說些什麼來一次又一次地向你保證。

This question came up almost for every generation.

這個問題幾乎每一代都會出現。

And I -- again, I think, well, first, the premise.

我再次強調，首先是前提。

The premise is that we do not build capacity until we are quite confident of the demand.

前提是，在我們對需求非常有信心之前，我們不會建立產能。

That's premise number one.

這是第一條前提。

We do not build capacity until we are quite confident of the demand.

在我們對需求非常有信心之前，我們不會建立產能。

And we look at demand not by market segment but by customer.

我們不是按細分市場而是按客戶來看待需求。

And we base the confidence on the work that we have already been doing with the customer.

我們的信心是基於我們已經與客戶所做的工作。

That's premise number one, that we don't build capacity until we are reasonably confident, highly confident of the demand.

這是第一個前提，在我們對需求有相當的信心和高度信心之前，我們不會建立產能。

The second premise is that we do have waves, succeeding waves of customers.

第二個前提是我們確實有一波又一波的客戶。

When the first wave migrates to an even more advanced node, we have second wave, third wave.

當第一波遷移到更高階的節點時，就會出現第二波、第三波。

And we have specialty technology customers taking over the capacity that the first wave, the succeeding waves ahead of them have left behind.

我們的專業技術客戶接管了第一波浪潮和他們前面的後續浪潮所留下的產能。

Maybe my follow-up would be since you're very clear that you're not going to build capacity ahead of demand, so would you comment or would you help us with any idea of how next year CapEx could look like at this point in time?

也許我的後續行動是，因為您非常清楚，您不會在需求之前建立產能，所以您會發表評論嗎？

Next year's CapEx.

明年的資本支出。

His question is next year's CapEx.

他的問題是明年的資本支出。

Next year's CapEx will be about the same, about the same as this year.

明年的資本支出將與今年大致相同。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

The next question will be coming from the floor and will be coming from Morgan Stanley, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu 提出。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dr. Chang, you talked about building capacity based on customers.

張博士，您談到了基於客戶的能力建構。

I went back and looked at your annual report.

我回去看了你們的年度報告。

Top 10 was 51% of sales in 2007.

2007 年前 10 名銷售額佔銷售額的 51%。

Last year was 59%.

去年是59%。

Top one was 11% 2007, 17% 2012.

排名第一的是 2007 年 11%，2012 年 17%。

So quite a big increase in customer concentration.

因此，客戶集中度大幅提高。

And I think probably you can expect that going forward that gets bigger, with the big customers coming on board.

我想，隨著大客戶的加入，你可能會期待未來的發展會變得更大。

But top two could be one-third of revenue?

但前兩名可能佔收入的三分之一？

That makes it easier for us in terms of building capacity, in terms of actual capacity, right?

這讓我們在能力建構、實際能力上變得更容易，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

But I guess I'm just wondering, do you have more customer-specific risk going forward and how do you deal with that?

但我想我只是想知道，您未來是否會面臨更多特定於客戶的風險以及您如何應對？

There are always risks.

風險總是存在的。

You've got risks crossing the street but you take it and I think that frankly, the way I look at it, we want to make our relationship with our major, major customers such that the risk of their -- the way -- the way he put it, switching [foundries], right.

你過馬路時會面臨風險，但你會承擔它，坦白說，在我看來，我們希望與我們的主要客戶建立關係，以便他們的風險——方式——正如他所說，切換[代工廠]，對。

The way we work with customers, the major, major customers, makes the risks of their switching foundries almost as small as crossing the street.

我們與客戶、主要客戶合作的方式，使得他們更換代工廠的風險幾乎就像過馬路一樣小。

I guess I'm not as much worried about them switching as much as one customer who doesn't do well, with a poor product line or something.

我想我並不像擔心一個表現不佳、產品線很差或其他什麼的客戶那樣擔心他們會更換。

He has what, a blowout?

他有什麼，井噴？

I guess I think customer risk could be one of switching, but two, if one particular chip doesn't do well or --.

我想我認為客戶風險可能是轉換風險之一，但如果某一特定晶片表現不佳或——則有兩種風險。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

That risk exists.

這種風險是存在的。

As I said, remember what I said earlier that we don't always build capacity -- build as much capacity as they would like us to build.

正如我所說，請記住我之前所說的，我們並不總是建立能力——建立他們希望我們建立的能力。

Everybody I think tends to be a little optimistic about his own new products or whatever, new markets and so on.

我認為每個人都對自己的新產品或其他新市場等持樂觀態度。

My second question is you broke down smartphones by high end, mid end, low end.

我的第二個問題是，您將智慧型手機分為高階、中階、低階。

I think it was last year, maybe the year before, you had given a content per smartphone type of number for TSMC.

我認為去年，也許是前年，您為台積電提供了每種智慧型手機類型的內容數量。

Could you give us that maybe now versus --?

您能否告訴我們，也許現在與—？

Do you remember the number?

你還記得號碼嗎？

It was $8 point something.

這是 8 美元點的東西。

Was it that much?

就這麼多嗎？

No.

不。

I think we said $7 on average.

我想我們說的是平均 7 美元。

What's the use of telling you this if you don't even remember what I told you last time?

如果你連我上次告訴你的話都不記得了，告訴你這些有什麼用呢？

Well anyway, the reason why I try to test you is because I wanted to tell you a new number but I just first wanted to test whether you remembered the last one or not.

好吧，無論如何，我之所以嘗試測試你，是因為我想告訴你一個新數字，但我只是想先測試一下你是否還記得最後一個數字。

In any case, for the high end and middle end, the number has risen by about $1.

無論如何，對於高端和中端來說，這個數字增加了約1美元。

The smartphones have become smarter, partly because they carry ICs, more ICs made by us.

智慧型手機變得更加智能，部分原因是它們帶有IC，更多的IC是我們製造的。

And that's why the content has -- our value added in each high end and middle end has risen by about $1.

這就是為什麼內容——我們在每個高端和中端的附加價值增加了約 1 美元。

The low end, I haven't seen the number.

低端的，我沒看過這個數字。

Do we have low end value?

我們的最終價值低嗎？

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

The average smartphone we have $7 per phone.

我們的智慧型手機平均售價為 7 美元。

For the low end it's $4.

低端售價​​為 4 美元。

Middle end $6 and high end $9.

中端6美元，高階9美元。

So the average hasn't changed from before?

那麼平均值與之前相比沒有變化嗎？

$7.

7 美元。

Okay.

好的。

Our average as the lower end has increased.

我們的平均水平作為低端有所增加。

And low end, you can't have $8 or $9 in the low end.

低端產品，你不可能有 8 美元或 9 美元的低端產品。

The consumers don't want to pay that.

消費者不想支付這個費用。

They don't need all those features either.

他們也不需要所有這些功能。

Our next question still comes from the floor and will be from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

我們的下一個問題仍然來自現場，由高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的唐納德·盧 (Donald Lu) 提出。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

I have to be careful asking questions that I don't get a question back.

我必須小心地提出問題，以免得到答案。

My first question is on second sourcing.

我的第一個問題是關於第二來源的。

I noticed the trend, before 28 nanometers, there's always substantial amount of second sourcing going on.

我注意到了這一趨勢，在 28 奈米之前，總是存在大量的二次採購。

In 28 and 20 seems like very little.

28和20似乎很少。

And in your speech, quoting your words, you said for FinFET we need substantial joint work between foundry and customer.

在您的演講中，您引用了您的話說，對於 FinFET，我們需要代工廠和客戶之間進行實質的聯合工作。

Does that mean the second source kind of business model is not going to work very well in the future in terms of foundry second source?

這是否意味著，就代工第二來源而言，第二來源商業模式在未來不會發揮很好的作用？

It's very difficult.

這非常困難。

Foundry second source has always been a difficult thing.

代工廠第二貨源一直是一件困難的事。

And I think that -- but that it will work, yes.

我認為——但是它會起作用，是的。

I think it could work.

我認為這可行。

But the second source usually would be considerably behind, considerably behind the first source.

但第二個來源通常會遠遠落後於第一個來源。

Would this gap continue to increase with each node going forward?

隨著每個節點的發展，這種差距會繼續擴大嗎？

I don't believe so.

我不相信是這樣。

Certainly -- let me put it this way.

當然——讓我這樣說。

Where we are the first source, we are going to certainly do our best to prevent any second source.

如果我們是第一個來源，我們當然會盡最大努力防止任何第二個來源。

Where we have the opportunity of becoming a second source, we will often refuse to be one.

當我們有機會成為第二來源時，我們常常會拒絕成為第二來源。

It's very difficult.

這非常困難。

I think it's difficult and I do not think it is the way to go for either the customer or the supplier.

我認為這很困難，而且我不認為這對客戶或供應商來說都不是可行的方法。

Just following up on that question.

只是跟進這個問題。

If a customer for a particular product, is that still possible to source it at both TSMC and another foundry at the same time?

如果客戶需要某種特定產品，是否仍可以同時在台積電和另一家代工廠購買該產品？

Or is that the design process is so different it's going to be --?

或者說設計過程是如此不同以至於會——？

It's difficult for the same product.

同樣的產品很難。

For the same technology, yes, I think I can see that it's possible.

對於同樣的技術，是的，我想我可以看到這是可能的。

It's not only possible.

這不僅是可能的。

But that's not really second source though any more.

但這不再是真正的第二來源了。

That's two first sources in the same technology, yes.

是的，這是同一技術的兩個第一個來源。

Okay.

好的。

So that's still --?

那麼這仍然是——？

Yes.

是的。

And the second question is that today, when you showed these pictures of fabs, you stressed that all the Giga-Fabs can be connected.

第二個問題是，今天，當您展示這些晶圓廠的圖片時，您強調所有千兆晶圓廠都可以連接。

I noticed that comparing TSMC with Samsung and Intel, TSMC definitely is going to have huge fabs that are connected, versus the other two are more scattered around the world for various reasons.

我注意到，將台積電與三星和英特爾進行比較，台積電肯定會擁有相連的大型晶圓廠，而其他兩家由於各種原因更加分散在世界各地。

For TSMC, number one would mean that will give you more cost advantage.

對台積電來說，第一意味著會為你帶來更多的成本優勢。

Is that still the case for FinFET, etc., going forward?

未來 FinFET 等產品是否仍然如此？

Even you have one large, very huge --?

即使你有一個很大、非常巨大的——？

Cost advantage, yes, I believe there is some cost advantage in connecting all the fabs into one bigger fab.

成本優勢，是的，我相信將所有晶圓廠連接成一個更大的晶圓廠具有一定的成本優勢。

But I think the main advantage is probably in time to expand or time to market.

但我認為主要優勢可能是及時擴展或上市時間。

That is -- we qualify only once because -- and one big Giga-Fab we qualify only once, whereas if they are disconnected, if they are separate fabs, then usually we have to qualify each fab.

也就是說，我們只獲得一次資格，因為一個大型Giga-Fab 我們只獲得一次資格，而如果它們斷開連接，如果它們是單獨的晶圓廠，那麼通常我們必須對每個晶圓廠進行資格認證。

On the same product, that is, or on the same technology, let's say.

可以說，在同一個產品上，或是在相同的技術上。

And just following up on that, this also means TSMC will probably not build a 12-inch fab let's say in the US or China.

緊隨其後，這也意味著台積電可能不會在美國或中國建造 12 吋晶圓廠。

Is that strategy still --?

這個策略仍然是──？

You are predicting things for me, Donald.

你正在為我預測事情，唐納德。

No, I -- we always consider doing things, but I think every time in the past we just run up against this stuff, which is very costly to do in a separate location, in another very different location.

不，我——我們總是考慮做一些事情，但我認為過去每次我們都會遇到這些事情，在一個單獨的地點、另一個非常不同的地點做這件事的成本非常高。

Well, we have expanded our China fab considerably in the last two years.

嗯，過去兩年我們大幅擴建了中國工廠。

It is not what you knew two years ago.

這不是你兩年前所知道的。

It's twice as large as the size two years ago, yes.

是的，它比兩年前大了一倍。

Is that profitable?

這樣有利可圖嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Why would we do it if it wasn't?

如果不是的話我們為什麼要這麼做呢？

Okay.

好的。

Next question also comes from the floor and it will be from --.

下一個問題也來自與會者，並且來自——。

It is very profitable actually.

實際上這是非常有利可圖的。

Yes.

是的。

I hope the next question is also related to a very profitable question from Barclays, Andrew Lu.

我希望下一個問題也能與巴克萊銀行 Andrew Lu 提出的一個非常有利可圖的問題有關。

Dr. Chang and Lora, I have two questions.

張博士和洛拉，我有兩個問題。

First one, I remember last year, almost at same time, I think it was July 20 something, you mentioned that Q4 would be down.

第一個，我記得去年，幾乎在同一時間，我想是 7 月 20 日左右，你提到第四季會下降。

In that time you said it will be ballpark of the double-digit, close to 10% decline.

當時你說下降幅度會是兩位數，接近 10%。

But you end up with a rush order and Q4 revenue declined only 7%.

但最終你收到了緊急訂單，第四季收入僅下降了 7%。

The same for Q1.

Q1 也是如此。

Earlier you guided a similar decline like Q4 and that was 1% decline.

早些時候您指導了與第四季度類似的下降，即下降 1%。

Based on your current visibility, earlier you mentioned will be similar or worse, worse than last year, are you saying worse than 7% decline or worse than your original guidance last year where you give about 10%?

根據您目前的能見度，您之前提到的情況將會相似或更糟，比去年更糟，您是說比去年下降7% 更糟，還是比您去年最初給出的指導值（大約10%）更差？

No, I meant worse than the 7%, the actual 7%, yes.

不，我的意思是比 7% 更糟糕，實際的 7%，是的。

Could be worse.

可能更糟。

Could be double digits?

可以是兩位數嗎？

Well, actually I regret that I even went into the fourth quarter right now.

好吧，實際上我很遺憾我現在就進入了第四節。

No, I don't expect it to be double -- I don't, well, I think it will be a decline and -- but I normally don't even guide or forecast the quarter after this.

不，我不認為它會翻倍——我不，嗯，我認為這會下降——但我通常甚至不會指導或預測此後的季度。

But when I see something unusual happening, I do try to tell you in advance.

但當我發現有什麼不尋常的事情發生時，我會盡力提前告訴你。

And that was the case last time and it's a year ago and it's the same case this time.

上次就是這樣，一年前就是這樣，這次也是同樣的情況。

Same situation this time.

這次同樣的情況。

I see a very -- a finite possibility of the fourth quarter being down from the third quarter, yes.

是的，我認為第四季低於第三季的可能性非常有限。

As to its magnitude, I really -- when I said that maybe a little more serious than the minus 7% last year, I was taking a risk.

至於其幅度，當我說可能比去年的負 7% 嚴重一點時，我真的是在冒險。

So -- and that is risk is greater than crossing the street, by the way.

所以——順便說一句，風險比過馬路更大。

Okay?

好的？

My second question, regarding the FinFET competition, Intel, based on all industry check, Intel will ramp up 14 FinFET at second half next year, probably will start to do the foundry in the year 2015.

我的第二個問題，關於FinFET的競爭，Intel根據全行業的調查，明年下半年Intel將增加14個FinFET，可能會在2015年開始代工。

And Samsung claim they are going to jump from 28 to 14 FinFET similar like year 2015.

三星聲稱他們將從 28 個 FinFET 躍升至 14 個，與 2015 年類似。

Our FinFET also will mass produce from early '15.

我們的 FinFET 也將從 15 年初開始量產。

So my question is based on these industry competitors and also some customers' comments, our 16 FinFET, the die size is larger than our competitor's 14 FinFET and performance a little bit worse than compared to 14 FinFET.

所以我的問題是基於這些行業競爭對手以及一些客戶的評論，我們的 16 FinFET，晶片尺寸比我們競爭對手的 14 FinFET 大，性能比 14 FinFET 差一點。

Do you have any words to defend this statement?

你有什麼話可以捍衛這個說法嗎？

No.

不。

I'm telling you that our 16 -- well, first of all, you have to remember, nothing is out yet.

我告訴你，我們的 16 號——嗯，首先，你必須記住，目前還沒有任何結果。

Everybody is just talking, talking, talking.

每個人都只是在說話、說話、說話。

Okay?

好的？

Yes.

是的。

And then I stand on what I said, I guess it was 30 minutes ago now.

然後我堅持我所說的，我猜那是 30 分鐘前的事了。

On foundry-to-foundry competition, I believe we are competitive on the 16.

在代工廠間的競爭中，我相信我們在 16 上具有競爭力。

On a grand alliance versus IDM competition, I believe we are more than competitive.

在大聯盟與 IDM 的競爭中，我相信我們不僅僅是有競爭力的。

Okay.

好的。

I believe that this is about time for us to take a question from the call.

我認為現在是我們回答電話問題的時候了。

Operator, could you please proceed to the next caller?

接線員，您可以接聽下一個來電者嗎？

Your next question from the phone comes from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

電話中的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

Please ask the question.

請提問。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Dr. Chang, you mentioned the competition are not ramping 28, the high-K metal gate yet.

張博士，您提到競爭還沒有達到 28，即高 K 金屬閘極。

You're not seeing any competitors there.

你在那裡看不到任何競爭對手。

And your loading will start to come down towards the end of this year and then rebound in second quarter.

您的負載將在今年年底開始下降，然後在第二季度反彈。

So during this time we're going to see TSMC adding new capacity or ramping of new giga-fabs, but also this time we're going to have GlobalFoundries planning to add a lot of 300-millimeter capacity as they eventually get into 28-nanometer high-K metal gate.

因此，在這段時間裡，我們將看到台積電增加新的產能或增加新的千兆工廠，而這次我們將讓 GlobalFoundries 計劃增加大量 300 毫米產能，因為他們最終將進入 28 毫米晶圓廠。奈米高K金屬柵極。

So my question, are you concerned at all about overall foundry supply that's coming on stream over the next 12 months?

所以我的問題是，您是否擔心未來 12 個月內投產的整體代工供應？

All right.

好的。

Brett, your question is with respect to the over -- potential oversupply condition for 28 nanometer, starting fourth quarter this year.

Brett，你的問題是關於今年第四季開始的 28 奈米技術可能出現的供應過剩情況。

You're concerned whether or not TSMC as well as competitions are building -- continuing to build 28-nanometer capacity, it will create a glut.

你擔心台積電和競爭對手是否正在建設——繼續建造 28 奈米產能，會造成供過於求。

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, particularly GlobalFoundries, who seem to be adding a lot of 300-millimeter capacity.

是的，尤其是 GlobalFoundries，他們似乎正在增加大量 300 毫米產能。

And at some point they will start to ramp up 28-nanometer high-K metal gate.

在某個時候，他們將開始提高 28 奈米高 K 金屬閘極的產量。

So I'm trying to understand whether Dr. Chang sees any oversupply conditions over the next 12 months, yes.

所以我想了解張博士是否認為未來 12 個月會出現供應過剩的情況，是的。

28-nanometer oversupply for next year.

明年28奈米供應過剩。

I don't think it will happen.

我認為這不會發生。

Do you want to know the reasons why it won't happen?

您想知道它不會發生的原因嗎？

Yes, please.

是的，請。

Well, I already said it.

嗯，我已經說過了。

I think we have a substantial lead on yield and on performance in 28 nanometer.

我認為我們在 28 奈米製程的良率和性能方面具有顯著的領先優勢。

So while other competitors, or at least some of the other competitors, are talking about building capacity and even actually building capacity, I think that we will have a much higher utilization in our capacity than those of competitors, much higher.

因此，雖然其他競爭對手，或至少是其他一些競爭對手，正在談論建立產能，甚至實際上正在建立產能，但我認為我們的產能利用率將比競爭對手高得多。

And this has happened before, when -- this in fact has been happening all along, in the last 15 years or so.

這種情況以前發生過，事實上，在過去 15 年左右的時間裡，這種情況一直在發生。

While we always build capacity, we knew who our customers would be and at least we knew at least approximately what their demand would be, real demand.

雖然我們總是在建立產能，但我們知道我們的客戶是誰，至少我們至少大致知道他們的需求是什麼，真正的需求。

While we build our capacity on that kind of knowledge, our competitors often build capacity on speculation.

我們的能力建立在這種知識的基礎上，而我們的競爭對手卻常常建立在投機的基礎上。

So you might say, well, that's certainly not very advantageous to you either.

所以你可能會說，好吧，這對你來說當然也不是很有利。

Well, no.

嗯，不。

It was not very advantageous for us, but we still managed to hold our profitability.

這對我們來說不是很有利，但我們仍然設法保持了盈利能力。

We still, over all these years, in almost all nodes, 0.13, 90 nanometer, 60 nanometer, 65 nanometer, 45 nanometer, it has always happened.

我們仍然，這些年來，在幾乎所有節點，0.13、90奈米、60奈米、65奈米、45奈米，它一直在發生。

Our competitors build capacity on speculation.

我們的競爭對手透過投機來建立能力。

Well, the results in every generation was that we still got our profitability, in fact our structural profitability, as I pointed out, has improved.

嗯，每一代的結果都是我們仍然獲得了盈利能力，事實上，正如我所指出的，我們的結構性盈利能力有所改善。

And we also had very much high utilization in our capacity at each node than our competitors.

而且我們每個節點的容量利用率也比競爭對手高很多。

And if you look at the history, you will find out.

如果你看看歷史，你會發現。

This is why our profits, I think even now, of course, GlobalFoundries, GlobalFoundries is not a public company and Samsung, Intel, I don't think exactly disclose their foundry income.

這就是為什麼我們的利潤，我想即使是現在，當然GlobalFoundries，GlobalFoundries不是上市公司而三星、英特爾，我認為還沒有確切地披露他們的代工收入。

But back when we had competitive foundry competitors that disclosed their revenue and earning, we had only 50% of the revenue of the total industry, but we had 100% of the profits.

但當我們有競爭對手揭露他們的收入和利潤時，我們只擁有整個產業50%的收入，但我們擁有100%的利潤。

That means we've -- the rest of the competitors, they either had -- if they had negative profit, they had positive profit, it was cancelled out by some other's negative profit.

這意味著我們——其他競爭對手，他們要么有——如果他們有負利潤，他們就有正利潤，它會被其他人的負利潤抵消。

We had 50% revenue and 100% profit.

我們有 50% 的收入和 100% 的利潤。

And I think that it will continue to be that way, frankly.

坦白說，我認為情況將繼續如此。

So I --.

所以我 - 。

Can I --?

我可以嗎 - ？

Yes?

是的？

Can I perhaps just ask a follow-on question, Dr. Chang, about wafer ASPs.

張博士，我可以問一個關於晶圓 ASP 的後續問題嗎？

Your wafer pricing has been rising quite nicely over the last 12, 18 months as you've ramped 28 nanometer much faster than prior nodes.

你們的晶圓價格在過去 12、18 個月裡一直在大幅上漲，因為你們的 28 奈米製程提升速度比之前的節點快得多。

Can you talk a little bit about how you see wafer ASPs trending over the next few years as you start to ramp up 20 nanometer and 16 FinFET?

您能談談您如何看待未來幾年隨著 20 奈米和 16 FinFET 技術的發展，晶圓平均售價的趨勢嗎？

Should we continue to see wafer ASPs rise at similar levels?

我們是否應該繼續看到晶圓平均售價以類似水平上漲？

Yes.

是的。

The blended average price will continue to rise.

綜合平均價格將持續上漲。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

The next question will come from Citigroup, Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗集團的 Roland Shu 提出。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chairman, I think the first question for me is that 16 nanometer adoption.

主席，我認為我的第一個問題是 16 奈米的採用。

Will customer, skipping 20 nanometer go to 16 directly or customer will take small magnitudes sequentially, migrate to 20 nanometer first and move to 16 nanometer?

客戶會跳過 20 奈米直接過渡到 16 奈米，還是會依序小幅度遷移到 20 奈米，然後再遷移到 16 奈米？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Will they skip 20 nanometer, is that the question?

他們會跳過 20 奈米嗎？

Yes, I think some customers might.

是的，我想有些客戶可能會。

Some.

一些。

But I think a larger part of the customers, a larger percentage of customers will go to 20 first and then 16.

但我認為很大一部分客戶，很大比例的客戶會先去20個，再去16個。

Okay.

好的。

And so follow-on question will be for those 20-nanometer customers, will it be enough incentive for them to move to -- from 20 to 16.

因此，對於那些 20 奈米客戶來說，接下來的問題是，這是否足以激勵他們從 20 奈米轉向 16 奈米。

Of course, we know there are a lot improvement from 28 to 16.

當然，我們知道從 28 到 16 有很大的進步。

How about the comparison from 20 to 16?

20和16的比較怎麼樣？

Will that offer more incentive for customers to migrate to?

這會為客戶遷移提供更多動力嗎？

No.

不。

You're talking about performance and power and that sort of thing.

你談論的是性能和功率之類的東西。

Well I think they get a bit too detailed for me to talk to you.

嗯，我認為他們對我來說有點太詳細了，無法與您交談。

I think we have said our advantage of 16 nanometer over 20 is for speed, performance.

我想我們已經說過 16 奈米相對於 20 奈米的優勢在於速度和性能。

It will be 20% faster at the same total power and it will be 35% better efficiency in power given the total speed, given the same speed.

在相同的總功率下，速度將提高 20%，在總速度相同的情況下，功率效率將提高 35%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question is on the gross margin side.

我的第二個問題是關於毛利率方面的。

I think in 3Q definitely we are going to have more 20-nanometer wafer contribution in the second half and for the first quarter, 24%, second quarter 29%, then 3Q will be up to about 30%.

我認為在第三季度，我們肯定會在下半年有更多的20奈米晶圓貢獻，第一季為24%，第二季為29%，然後第三季將達到30%左右。

And also we'll have more high-k metal gate so the blended ASP should be up.

而且我們還將擁有更多的高 k 金屬閘極，因此混合 ASP 應該會上升。

But still we still have the lower gross margin.

但我們的毛利率仍然較低。

So can Lora comment about maybe give us some ideas.

Lora 的評論能否給我們一些想法。

What's the margin impact from this increasing 28-nanometer and also for this decreasing utilization in 3Q.

28 奈米技術的不斷增長以及第三季度利用率的下降對利潤率有何影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

28 nanometer continuing to increase actually helps the overall margin.

28奈米的持續增加實際上有助於整體利潤率。

Even in the third quarter I was guiding a lower profitability, but not because of 28.

即使在第三季度，我的獲利能力也較低，但並不是因為 28。

28 still doing nicely and it will be fully loaded.

28 仍然表現良好，它將滿載。

It's other nodes will be less utilized.

它的其他節點將被較少利用。

So to answer your question, basically other nodes have lower utilization.

所以回答你的問題，基本上其他節點的使用率較低。

Roland, are you done with all your questions?

羅蘭，你的問題都問完了嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

All right.

好的。

He's the first that only take one question.

他是第一個只回答一個問題的人。

Okay.

好的。

Next one comes from -- you're Daiwa, right?

下一位來自——你是大和，對吧？

Right, Daiwa, Eric Chen.

對了，大和，埃里克·陳。

Hi, Chairman, Lora.

你好，主席，洛拉。

The first question, the one question regarding to your China strategy.

第一個問題，關於您的中國策略的問題。

We talked about a lot at the high end, the mid end and the low end of smartphone, and that from my understanding, your market share and for the China clients in the smartphone IC lower than your market share for the global smartphone IC maker.

我們在智慧型手機的高端、中階和低階討論了很多，據我了解，你們在智慧型手機IC方面的市場份額以及中國客戶的市場份額低於你們在全球智慧型手機IC製造商中的市場份額。

I don't know whether that's true or not.

我不知道這是真的還是假的。

Okay.

好的。

My guess let me say this way --

我猜讓我這樣說——

You're shaking your head to you deny that that's true or what?

你搖頭否認這是真的還是什麼？

I don't think it is lower, yes.

我不認為它更低，是的。

Yes, that's higher.

是的，那更高。

And my question is China smartphone IC makers, they care about wafer costs.

我的問題是中國智慧型手機IC製造商，他們關心晶圓成本。

They what?

他們什麼？

They care about wafer costs, price sensitive.

他們關心晶圓成本，對價格敏感。

Yes.

是的。

And they probably bargain the wafer price and even more severe and then again they are more sensitive.

他們可能會討價還價，甚至更嚴厲，然後他們變得更加敏感。

So any strategy you have for whether China, either the PC IC maker or the smartphone IC maker.

因此，無論是中國，無論是 PC IC 製造商還是智慧型手機 IC 製造商，你都有什麼策略。

Probably the one example is one guy just moved to the GlobalFoundries.

一個例子可能是一個剛搬到 GlobalFoundries 的人。

So are you seeing this trend?

那你看到這個趨勢了嗎？

Again, anybody -- somebody moves to a competitor, I feel very sad.

再說一次，任何人——有人跳槽到競爭對手，我感到非常難過。

This particular one and the last time when I said I was very regretful when another one of our customers moves to Intel.

這是最後一次，也是我最後一次說，當我們的另一位客戶轉向英特爾時，我感到非常遺憾。

This particular one -- I think I know what you're talking about.

這個特別的——我想我知道你在說什麼。

I know who you're talking about.

我知道你在說誰。

I will use a word that's considerable less than regret.

我會用一個比遺憾重要得多的字。

Okay?

好的？

So yes, we know that they are very price conscious.

所以，是的，我們知道他們非常注重價格。

And we try to work them.

我們嘗試與他們合作。

Actually we, as you say, we try to work with our customers.

實際上，正如您所說，我們嘗試與客戶合作。

We don't have to work with their customers because their customers are the price-conscious ones.

我們不必與他們的客戶合作，因為他們的客戶對價格敏感。

Now -- so yes, but, as I reported in my message, we've been quite successful so far.

現在——是的，但是，正如我在消息中所報告的，到目前為止我們已經相當成功。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question probably goes to Lora first.

我的第二個問題可能會先問洛拉。

If we -- for the CapEx for next year is flat from this year, what kind of -- how many percent the capacity growth and depreciation expenses growth for this year

如果明年的資本支出與今年持平，那麼今年的產能成長和折舊費用成長是多少？

I have no idea this number.

我不知道這個數字。

Chairman just gave you a ballpark of the total CapEx.

主席剛剛向您提供了總資本支出的大致情況。

So we have not calculated data on that.

所以我們還沒有計算這方面的數據。

I gave him a little more than ballpark.

我給了他比粗略的多一點的資訊。

I gave him the size of the diamond, but anyway.

我給了他鑽石的大小，但無論如何。

Are you a baseball fan?

你是棒球迷嗎？

You know what I'm talking about?

你懂我在說什麼？

A ballpark is maybe 10 times the size of the diamond.

棒球場的大小可能是鑽石的 10 倍。

Okay.

好的。

And actually the follow-up the question regarding to the CapEx.

實際上是有關資本支出的後續問題。

I just really want to know exactly why you're so confident for the demand.

我只是想確切地知道為什麼您對需求如此有信心。

You know that yesterday the Intel announced that they are going to cut CapEx by --?

您知道昨天英特爾宣布他們將削減資本支出 - 嗎？

Why am I so confident of what demand?

為什麼我對什麼需求如此有信心？

The market demand and your CapEx.

市場需求和您的資本支出。

I'm confident because I have usually been right.

我很有自信，因為我平常都是對的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thank you, Mr. Right.

好的，謝謝你，Mr. Right。

All right.

好的。

I think in the interest of time and we're already a little over -- it's about 100 minutes now, so I think we'll just end our investor's conference for this quarter right now.

我認為出於時間考慮，我們已經有點結束了——現在大約有 100 分鐘，所以我認為我們現在就結束本季的投資者會議。

And thank you for coming.

感謝您的光臨。

We'll see you next quarter.

我們下季見。