台積電 ADR (TSM) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • (Spoken in Chinese).

    (用中文說)。

  • Welcome to TSMC's third-quarter 2012 earnings conference and conference call.

    歡迎參加台積電 2012 年第三季財報會議和電話會議。

  • This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

    我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun,也是今天的主持人。

  • Starting last quarter, we have combined the quarterly earnings conference with the conference call and the event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    從上季開始,我們將季度收益會議與電話會議合併在一起,並透過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

  • If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

    如果您透過電話會議加入我們,您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

  • As this conference is being viewed by the investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

    由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議,因此我們將僅以英語進行活動。

  • The format for today's event will be as follows.

    今天活動的形式如下。

  • First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the third quarter and give you our guidance for the next quarter.

    首先,台積電資深副總裁兼財務長Lora Ho女士將總結我們第三季的營運情況,並為您提供下一季的指導。

  • Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang, will provide his general remarks and a couple of key messages.

    隨後,台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表一般性演講和一些關鍵資訊。

  • Then we will open the floor to questions.

    然後我們將開始提問。

  • For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it now from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    對於電話會議的參與者,如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本,您可以立即從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

  • Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

    另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

  • Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

    請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

  • And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho.

    現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Good afternoon, good evening and good morning, everyone.

    大家下午好,晚上好,早安。

  • Thank you for joining us this afternoon.

    感謝您今天下午加入我們。

  • Today my presentation will start with the financial highlights for the third quarter and followed by the outlook of the fourth quarter.

    今天我的演講將從第三季的財務亮點開始,然後是第四季的前景。

  • I am pleased to report a record quarter for TSMC in both revenue and net income, thanks to customers' strong demand for mobile computing applications and our leadership in technology.

    我很高興地報告台積電季度營收和淨利潤均創歷史新高,這得益於客戶對行動運算應用的強勁需求以及我們在技術方面的領先地位。

  • Third-quarter revenue increased 33% year over year and 10% sequentially to reach TWD141b, exceeding our guidance.

    第三季營收年增 33%,季增 10%,達到新台幣 141b,超越我們的指引。

  • The better-than-expected revenue was due to higher shipments to support China smartphone demand and higher [mask] and backend revenue.

    收入好於預期是由於支持中國智慧型手機需求的出貨量增加以及[掩模]和後端收入的增加。

  • On the profitability side, third quarter gross margin was 48.8%.

    獲利能力方面,第三季毛利率為48.8%。

  • Operating margin was 37.2%.

    營業利益率為 37.2%。

  • Both are better than our guidance.

    兩者都比我們的指導好。

  • The higher margin was due to higher utilization and a better product mix and a higher yield.

    較高的利潤率歸因於更高的利用率、更好的產品組合和更高的產量。

  • Total operating expenses, dollars, increased slightly in the third quarter, however, as a percent of revenue decreased to 11.6% on a larger revenue base.

    然而,第三季總營運費用(美元)略有增加,在較大的收入基礎上,其占收入的百分比下降至 11.6%。

  • Overall our third quarter EPS was TWD1.90.

    整體而言,我們第三季的 EPS 為新台幣 1.90。

  • ROE for the single quarter was 30.3%.

    單季淨資產收益率為30.3%。

  • Let's move to revenue by product segment.

    讓我們轉向按產品細分劃分的收入。

  • During the third quarter, wafer demand for mobile computing devices continued to be strong, leading to double-digit growth in communication and industrial-related segments, while demand for computer and consumer-related products were relatively soft during this quarter.

    第三季度,行動運算設備的晶圓需求持續強勁,導致通訊和工業相關領域出現兩位數成長,而本季電腦和消費相關產品的需求相對疲軟。

  • We are happy to see the good progress of our 28 nanometer.

    我們很高興看到我們28奈米的良好進展。

  • 28 nanometer revenue and shipments more than doubled during third quarter due to solid customer demand and excellent execution.

    由於穩固的客戶需求和出色的執行力,第三季 28 奈米收入和出貨量增加了一倍多。

  • The contribution to total wafer revenue has increased from 7% in the second quarter to 13% in the third quarter.

    對晶圓總收入的貢獻從第二季的7%上升到第三季的13%。

  • We expect 28-nanometer revenue will exceed 20% of our total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter and will be more than 10% for the whole year.

    我們預計第四季28奈米營收將超過我們晶圓總營收的20%,全年將超過10%。

  • Taking a look at the balance sheet, cash and marketable securities ended the quarter at TWD148b, down TWD40b from the second quarter.

    從資產負債表來看,本季末現金和有價證券為新台幣 148 元,比第二季下降了新台幣 40 元。

  • Current liabilities decreased by TWD93b, mainly due to the payment of TWD78b cash dividend in July.

    流動負債減少 TWD93b,主要是因為 7 月份支付現金股利 TWD78b。

  • Taking advantage of the low interest environment, we raised TWD40.6b in corporate bonds at an average interest rate of 1.33%.

    利用低利率環境,我們以1.33%的平均利率籌集了新台幣40.6b的公司債。

  • Our total long-term debt, interest-bearing debt, has increased to TWD78b.

    我們的長期債務總額(有息債務)已增加至新台幣 78b。

  • On the cash flow side, we generated TWD77b from operations in the third quarter, invested TWD78b in capital expenditure, paid TWD78b for dividend and raised TWD41b through corporate bonds.

    在現金流方面,我們第三季的營運產生了新台幣77b,投資了新台幣78b用於資本支出,支付了新台幣78b作為股息,並透過公司債籌集了新台幣41b。

  • Overall our cash balance decreased TWD40b to TWD139b at the end of the third quarter.

    總體而言,我們的現金餘額在第三季末減少了新台幣 40b 至新台幣 139b。

  • Due to more capital expenditure, the free cash flow in the third quarter was a negative TWD1.7b.

    由於資本支出增加,第三季自由現金流為負TWD1.7b。

  • Let me make some comments on our capacity plan.

    讓我對我們的產能計劃發表一些評論。

  • As we continue adding capacity for 28 nanometer, our total capacity has increased 5% to 3.8m wafers in the third quarter.

    隨著我們持續增加28奈米產能,第三季我們的總產能增加了5%,達到380萬片晶圓。

  • We expect 28 nanometer will be fully utilized.

    我們預計28奈米將得到充分利用。

  • For the full year, our 12-inch capacity is expected to increase 21% in 2012 and total annual capacity for the Company will increase 14% to reach 15m 8-inch equivalent wafers.

    全年預計2012年12吋產能將成長21%,公司全年總產能將成長14%,達到1,500萬片8吋當量晶圓。

  • Regarding capital expenditure for this year, up to the third quarter we have spent $6.2b, representing 75% of our total year budget.

    關於今年的資本支出,截至第三季我們已經支出了 6.2b 美元,占我們年度預算總額的 75%。

  • I have finished my report on the financial highlights.

    我已經完成了關於財務要點的報告。

  • Now let me turn to the fourth quarter outlook.

    現在讓我談談第四季的展望。

  • Based on our current expectation and the forecast exchange rate of TWD29.47, we expect our revenue to be between TWD129b and TWD131b.

    根據我們目前的預期和預測匯率 TWD29.47,我們預計我們的收入將在 TWD129b 至 TWD131b 之間。

  • In terms of margins, we expect the fourth quarter gross margin to be between 45% and 47% and the operating margin to be between 33% and 35%.

    利潤率方面,我們預期第四季毛利率將在45%至47%之間,營業利益率將介於33%至35%之間。

  • This concludes my remarks.

    我的發言到此結束。

  • Let me turn the podium to our Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang.

    讓我請主席兼執行長張忠謀博士發言。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

    女士們、先生們,午安。

  • For the third quarter we had a record quarter in both revenue and net income, as Lora has already reported.

    正如洛拉(Lora)已經報道的那樣,第三季度我們的收入和淨利潤均創歷史新高。

  • Fourth quarter, as guided, is going to be a modest dip, about 8% in revenue.

    按照指導,第四季營收將小幅下降,約 8%。

  • We also think that this will be followed by another modest dip in the first quarter.

    我們也認為,第一季將出現再次小幅下滑。

  • And we expect a rebound in the second quarter, orders we actually predicted three months ago.

    我們預計第二季訂單會反彈,這是我們三個月前實際預測的。

  • The fourth-quarter dip and the first-quarter dip is caused by supply chain inventory adjustment.

    第四季的下降和第一季的下降都是由供應鏈庫存調整引起的。

  • Right now the days of inventory, DOI, is about 13 days above seasonal.

    目前庫存天數 DOI 比季節性高出約 13 天。

  • We expect that it will be adjusted to seven days above seasonal at the end of the year.

    我們預計年底將調整為季節性以上7天。

  • And then it will become normal in the second quarter of next year.

    然後到明年第二季就會變得正常。

  • That is consistent with our prediction of two dips caused by inventory -- supply chain inventory adjustment.

    這與我們對庫存造成的兩次下跌的預測一致——供應鏈庫存調整。

  • Now both our third quarter and our fourth quarter are better than our expectations three months ago.

    現在我們的第三季和第四季都比我們三個月前的預期好。

  • Third quarter we did exceed guidance.

    第三季我們確實超出了指引。

  • And even though fourth quarter will have a dip, as we forecast now, but it's a dip from a higher level than we forecasted three months ago.

    儘管正如我們現在預測的那樣,第四季將會出現下滑,但下降幅度高於我們三個月前預測的水平。

  • Why?

    為什麼?

  • We think the reason is the strength of mobile product demand.

    我們認為原因在於行動產品需求的強勁。

  • First, mobile IC demand is indeed very strong, stronger than we expected even three months ago.

    首先,行動IC需求確實非常強勁,甚至比我們三個月前的預期還要強勁。

  • Secondly, TSMC is foundry leader in mobile IC, and together with our partners we are the technology leader in mobile IC.

    其次,台積電是行動IC的代工領導者,與我們的合作夥伴一起,我們是行動IC的技術領導者。

  • This is a leadership that we and our partners will continue, will maintain.

    我們和我們的合作夥伴將繼續保持這種領導地位。

  • Third, TSMC value-added increases as smartphones get smarter and feature phones get smart.

    第三,隨著智慧型手機越來越智慧、功能手機越來越智能,台積電的附加價值也隨之增加。

  • We expect mobile products to fuel TSMC growth for a number of years, a number of years.

    我們預計行動產品將在許多年推動台積電的成長。

  • Next I will talk about a few product segments.

    接下來我會講幾個產品細分。

  • 28 nanometer, in the third quarter it was 13% of our revenue.

    28奈米,第三季占我們收入的13%。

  • In the fourth quarter it will be higher than 20% of our revenue.

    第四季它將高於我們收入的 20%。

  • And for the whole year next year, we expect it to be more than 30% of our revenue.

    明年全年,我們預計這將占我們收入的 30% 以上。

  • Yields have continued to improve and the gross margin of the 28 nanometer will be in the low 40s, low 40% in the fourth quarter.

    良率持續改善,28奈米毛利率將在40%左右,第四季低至40%。

  • And it will be, in 2013, it will be at corporate average.

    2013 年,它將達到企業平均。

  • Another product segment, CMOS image sensor, we have made significant improvements in optical performance.

    另一個產品領域,CMOS影像感測器,我們在光學性能方面取得了顯著的改進。

  • And dual cameras and higher-resolution sensors have been introduced in smartphones and tablets as an example of value-added increase in mobile products.

    在智慧型手機和平板電腦中引入了雙鏡頭和更高解析度的感測器,作為行動產品附加價值增加的一個例子。

  • Next, another example of value-added increase in mobile products, TSMC value-added increase in mobile products, and that's the fingerprint authentication and near-field communication.

    接下來再舉一個行動產品加值的例子,台積電行動產品加值,那就是指紋認證和近場通訊。

  • On 20 SoC, 20-nanometer SoC, our 112-megabit SRAM yield has progressed significantly and we are now accepting customers' test chips.

    在20 SoC、20奈米SoC上,我們的112兆SRAM良率有了顯著進步,我們現在正在接受客戶的測試晶片。

  • In fact, we have already accepted several customers' test chips and accepting more.

    事實上,我們已經接受了幾個客戶的測試晶片,並且正在接受更多。

  • On 16 FinFET, we plan to accept test chips in first quarter, next quarter, first quarter '13 -- 2013, next quarter.

    在16 FinFET上,我們計劃在第一季、下季、2013年第一季、下季接受測試晶片。

  • And then in June of next year we plan to have the first CyberShuttle.

    然後我們計劃在明年 6 月推出第一個 Cyber​​Shuttle。

  • And then in November of next year, we plan to start risk production.

    然後明年11月,我們計劃開始風險生產。

  • This is a somewhat faster cadence than our previous generations.

    這比我們前幾代人的節奏要快一些。

  • And one big reason for that is that basically 20 nanometer and 14 nanometer are quite alike; the interconnects are very, very alike, of course.

    其中一個重要原因是 20 奈米和 14 奈米基本上非常相似;當然,它們的互連非常非常相似。

  • 16 is FinFET, that's the big difference.

    16是FinFET,這是很大的差別。

  • But other than that, there are many similar aspects.

    但除此之外,還有很多相似的面向。

  • And so we will be able to introduce the 16 nanometer quicker, a lot faster than normally we introduce a new generation.

    因此,我們將能夠更快地推出 16 奈米技術,比通常推出新一代技術快得多。

  • Another point that's worthy of note along with our development of 20 SoC and 16 FinFET, that's that our Open Innovation Platform, OIP, which is our design ecosystem, it is becoming a more important competitive advantage as the technology advances to 20 nanometer.

    隨著我們開發20 SoC和16 FinFET,還有一點值得注意,那就是我們的開放創新平台OIP,也就是我們的設計生態系統,隨著技術進步到20奈米,它正在成為更重要的競爭優勢。

  • At 20 nanometer our competitive advantage in our design ecosystem is greater than in [20] nanometer or earlier generations.

    在 20 奈米技術下,我們在設計生態系統中的競爭優勢比 [20] 奈米或更早幾代技術更大。

  • Our customers rely on us for design exploration, solution development and design validation.

    我們的客戶依靠我們進行設計探索、解決方案開發和設計驗證。

  • Next item I want to report is that we did invest in ASML to the tune of approximately EUR1.1b.

    我要報告的下一項是,我們確實對 ASML 進行了約 1.1b 歐元的投資。

  • Of the EUR1.1b, a quarter is in R&D sharing and three-quarters are investment in their stocks.

    在 1.1b 歐元中,四分之一用於研發共享,四分之三用於股票投資。

  • The R&D sharing will be spread over a five-year period, starting in 2013.

    研發共享將從 2013 年開始分五年進行。

  • This investment is important to us because of EUV and 450-millimeter lithography, both of which are important to us at 10 nanometers and beyond.

    這項投資對我們來說很重要,因為 EUV 和 450 毫米光刻技術對我們在 10 奈米及以上的製程都很重要。

  • Next item I want to report is that we have purchased 14 hectares of land in Chunan.

    接下來我要報告的是,我們在淳安買了14公頃的土地。

  • It's about 20 minutes of driving from the Science Park in Hsinchu.

    距離新竹科學園區約20分鐘車程。

  • So it's really very nearby.

    所以它真的非常近。

  • And the reason it has to be nearby is that we're using the land for our new advanced R&D fab.

    它必須在附近的原因是我們正在使用這片土地建造我們新的先進研發工廠。

  • And that R&D fab is going to be for 450 millimeters and 7 nanometers development.

    該研發工廠將用於 450 毫米和 7 奈米的開發。

  • Next, we expect 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, those four years, to be either growth years or strong growth years.

    接下來,我們預計2013年、2014年、2015年和2016年這四年要不是成長年,就是強勁成長年。

  • We believe that the strategy we adopted a few years ago of drastically expanding our R&D and our capital investment is beginning to pay off.

    我們相信,我們幾年前採取的大幅擴大研發和資本投資的策略正在開始獲得回報。

  • Actually you can already see it from the last couple of years' results.

    事實上,從過去幾年的結果中你已經可以看到這一點。

  • But more is yet to come; the best is yet to come.

    但更多的事情還沒有發生。最好的還在後頭。

  • And we will continue the R&D expansion.

    我們將繼續擴大研發。

  • Now on capital expenditure, I will make separate comments.

    現在關於資本支出,我將單獨發表評論。

  • Capital expenditure will be about USD8.3b this year, which is right in the middle of the range that we guided a few months ago; we said USD8b to USD8.5b, and it now appears that it will be about USD8.3b this year.

    今年的資本支出約為 8.3 億美元,正好位於我們幾個月前指導的範圍的中間;我們說的是 USD8b 到 USD8.5b,現在看來今年大約是 USD8.3b。

  • Of course, the resulting cash flow stream from this capital expenditure is going to be much greater, much greater than the capital investment.

    當然,這種資本支出產生的現金流量將比資本投資大得多。

  • I will give you a ballpark number for next year's capital expenditure now.

    我現在就給你一個明年資本支出的大概數字。

  • It will be the same ballpark as this year's capital expenditure, same ballpark.

    這將與今年的資本支出大致相同。

  • Just to preempt the question of how big is your ballpark.

    只是為了先解決你的球場有多大的問題。

  • Well, my answer is neither very small nor very big.

    嗯,我的答案既不是很小也不是很大。

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • It's in the same ballpark.

    這是在同一個球場。

  • I think that you can use common sense.

    我認為你可以運用常識。

  • I'm a very commonsensical person.

    我是一個很有常識的人。

  • I'm not trying to play any tricks on you.

    我並不是想對你開什麼玩笑。

  • We plan to do more borrowing via corporate bonds.

    我們計劃透過公司債進行更多藉貸。

  • Actually, our net cash flow from operations in the years -- in the three years 2012, 2013, 2014, I'm talking about that three-year period, our net cash flow from operations in those three years is sufficient to support our CapEx in those three same years.

    實際上,我們這些年的營運淨現金流量——2012年、2013年、2014年這三年,我說的是這三年,我們這三年的營運淨現金流量足以支持我們的資本支出在那三年裡。

  • I'm with that thinking a little bit because that defines another boundary for our CapEx.

    我對此有一點想法,因為這定義了我們資本支出的另一個邊界。

  • So why do we borrow money?

    那我們為什麼要藉錢呢?

  • We borrow money to pay dividend which we will keep at TWD3 per share in this period.

    我們借錢支付股息,本期維持每股新台幣3元。

  • That concludes my comments.

    我的評論到此結束。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Thank you, Chairman.

    謝謝主席。

  • And this concludes our prepared statements.

    我們準備好的演講到此結束。

  • Before we begin the Q&A session, may I remind everybody that please to limit the number of questions you do have to two at a time so that other participants have opportunities to ask questions to the management.

    在我們開始問答環節之前,我想提醒大家,請把提問的數量限制在兩個以內,以便其他參與者有機會向管理層提問。

  • Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

    將從現場和電話中提出問題。

  • Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I'll translate it to English before our CEO or CFO answers your question.

    如果您想用中文提出問題,我會在我們的執行長或財務長回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (操作員說明)。

  • Now let's begin the Q&A session.

    現在我們開始問答環節。

  • Our first question comes from Citigroup, Roland Shu.

    我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團,Roland Shu。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • (Spoken in Chinese).

    (用中文說)。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Would you translate into English a little bit?

    你能稍微翻譯成英文嗎?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Roland's question is about the near-term outlook where Chairman had once said last quarter that second quarter next year will see a rebound.

    羅蘭的問題是關於近期前景,董事長上季曾表示明年第二季將會反彈。

  • So he would like to know a little bit color in terms of the strength of that rebound for second quarter next year.

    因此,他想了解明年第二季反彈力度的一些資訊。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Well it's just like my comment earlier that third quarter and fourth quarter are actually better than we forecast three months ago, even though we're still forecasting a dip in the fourth quarter, because -- it's better than we forecast three months ago because we are dipping from a higher level.

    好吧,就像我之前的評論一樣,第三季和第四季實際上比我們三個月前的預測要好,儘管我們仍然預測第四季會下降,因為——這比我們三個月前的預測要好,因為我們正在從更高的水平下降。

  • So to your current question, I said -- I think that your present question is I said three months ago that second quarter will be a strong rebound, and you are a very alert person; you had noticed that I did not use the word strong this time.

    所以對於你現在的問題,我說——我認為你現在的問題是我三個月前就說過,第二季度會出現強勁反彈,你是一個非常警惕的人;你已經注意到我這次沒有使用「堅強」這個詞。

  • Is that the origin of the question?

    這就是問題的由來嗎?

  • Well my answer, however, is that I did not use the word strong because we are now talking about a higher level in the first quarter.

    然而,我的回答是,我沒有使用“強”這個詞,因為我們現在正在談論第一季的更高水平。

  • So it will be a rebound.

    所以這將會是一個反彈。

  • In fact in some people's eyes I think it will be viewed as a strong rebound.

    事實上,在某些人看來,我認為這將被視為強勁反彈。

  • But I think that we -- I decided not to be too aggressive on this sort of thing.

    但我認為我們——我決定在這類事情上不要過於激進。

  • So I say it will be a rebound.

    所以我說這將會是一個反彈。

  • We're still -- it's still two quarters away, frankly.

    坦白說,我們仍然——還有兩個季度的時間。

  • Even though I think our visibility is in general quite good, but two quarters away, we can't be sure exactly what the strength of the rebound is.

    儘管我認為我們的能見度總體上相當好,但距離兩個季度的時間,我們無法確定反彈的強度到底有多大。

  • But I know, I am 100% certain that there will be a pretty good rebound.

    但我知道,我百分之百肯定會有一個相當好的反彈。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • So I think best [quote] is a rebound from a relative higher base than what you thought three months ago.

    所以我認為最好的[報價]是從比你三個月前想像的相對更高的基數反彈。

  • Are we confident on second quarter next year?

    我們對明年第二季有信心嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Higher revenue base that we predicted three months ago, yes, that was my point.

    我們三個月前預測的收入基礎會更高,是的,這就是我的觀點。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Then I think my second question is regarding the 20 nanometer and the 16 nanometer.

    那我想我的第二個問題是關於20奈米和16奈米。

  • And a lot of your clients talk about the 20-nanometer cost -- the cost saving or the cost per transistor actually is still not reached the economy scale of sweet spot.

    很多客戶都在談論 20 奈米成本——節省的成本或每個電晶體的成本實際上仍然沒有達到最佳經濟規模。

  • And actually Broadcom also have the same comment, yesterday -- during yesterday's earnings conference.

    事實上,博通在昨天的財報會議上也發表了同樣的評論。

  • So my question is since a lot of the customers actually they are not aggressive to get into 20 nanometer so far, and however listening to your comments, you are very aggressively talking about 20 nanometer and even 16nm demand.

    所以我的問題是,到目前為止,很多客戶實際上並不積極進入 20 奈米,但聽你們的評論,你們非常積極地談論 20 奈米甚至 16 奈米的需求。

  • So my question is, is this 20-nanometer or 16-nanometer customer-specific -- achievement by customer-specific demand or is it just for overall demand?

    所以我的問題是,這個 20 奈米或 16 奈米是客戶特定需求所實現的,還是只是為了整體需求?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Well on 20 nanometer's performance, I want to give you the numbers, the correct numbers that our technical people have given to me.

    關於 20 奈米的性能,我想給你們一些數字,我們的技術人員給我的正確數字。

  • The performance gain from 28 nanometer to 20 nanometer, that's your question, right?

    從 28 奈米到 20 奈米的性能增益,這就是你的問題,對吧?

  • From 28 nanometer to 20 nanometer, the performance gain is 15% to 20% at the same total power.

    從28奈米到20奈米,相同總功率下性能增益為15%到20%。

  • And the power reduction is 20% to 25% at the same speed.

    且相同速度下功率降低20%至25%。

  • You get that?

    你明白了嗎?

  • 15% to 20% performance gain at the same power and 20% to 25% power reduction at the same speed.

    相同功率下效能提升 15% 至 20%,相同速度下功率降低 20% 至 25%。

  • Now I know that some customers want even more.

    現在我知道有些客戶想要更多。

  • But one phenomenon that we are faced is that customers are consolidating.

    但我們面臨的一個現像是客戶正在整合。

  • The bigger customers are bigger than the other customers, than big customers used to be bigger than other customers.

    大客戶比其他客戶大,比過去的大客戶比其他客戶大。

  • All right?

    好的?

  • Incidentally I was rereading a passage of Michael Porter's classic Competitive Strategy just the other night.

    順便說一句,前幾天晚上我正在重讀邁克爾波特的經典《競爭策略》中的一段話。

  • And he said that there are five things that every company has to cope with.

    他表示,有五件事是每家公司都必須應付的。

  • One of those things is customers' bargaining power.

    其中之一就是客戶的議價能力。

  • Another thing is suppliers' bargaining power.

    另一件事是供應商的議價能力。

  • And I'm glad to report that after looking over those five things and thinking about each of them in relation to us, we have come out, I think, pretty good overall.

    我很高興地向大家報告,在審視了這五件事並思考了它們與我們的關係之後,我認為我們的整體表現相當不錯。

  • But your question reminds me of a customer's bargaining power and also a customer's relative importance.

    但你的問題讓我想起了客戶的議價能力以及客戶的相對重要性。

  • All right.

    好的。

  • So here there may be a larger number of customers that want more performance or less power than there are customers who are already satisfied with them.

    因此,與已經對此感到滿意的客戶相比,可能有更多的客戶想要更高的效能或更少的功耗。

  • But it turns out that those that are already satisfied with them buy more than the ones that want more.

    但事實證明,那些已經對其感到滿意的人比那些想要更多的人購買了更多的東西。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Next question goes to Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

    下一個問題問德意志銀行 Michael Chou。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • Hi, Chairman.

    主席您好。

  • Hello.

    你好。

  • When do you expect the risk production for 16-nanometer?

    您預計16奈米何時風險量產?

  • As you guided before, should be second half 2015.

    正如您之前指導的那樣,應該是 2015 年下半年。

  • Do you expect the earlier introduction for 16 nanometer, given that you have reached production for 16 nanometer?

    鑑於您已經實現了 16 奈米的量產,您是否預計會更早推出 16 奈米?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Michael's question is given that we begin risk production of 16 FinFET at November 2013, when -- all right.

    Michael 提出的問題是,我們在 2013 年 11 月開始風險生產 16 FinFET,當時——好吧。

  • Risk production of 16 nanometer starts November 2013.

    16 奈米製程的風險生產於 2013 年 11 月開始。

  • When will we start mass production for 16 nanometer?

    16奈米甚麼時候開始量產?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I think it will be a year -- I think it will be approximately a year later.

    我認為這將是一年——我認為大約是一年後。

  • Michael Chou - Analyst

    Michael Chou - Analyst

  • My second question is could you give any update for the CoWoS.

    我的第二個問題是您能否提供 CoWoS 的任何更新資訊。

  • Do you expect a broad-based reduction for your CoWoS in 20 nanometer?

    您是否期望 CoWoS 在 20 奈米製程中得到廣泛的縮減?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, CoWoS will be used with the 20-nanometer fab.

    是的,CoWoS 將與 20 奈米晶圓廠一起使用。

  • In fact it's already being used with the 28-nanometer fab, but the revenue is still relatively small.

    事實上,它已經在28奈米晶圓廠中使用,但收入仍然相對較小。

  • And as I said, technically it's progressing fine.

    正如我所說,技術上進展順利。

  • We are trying to reduce the costs more.

    我們正在努力進一步降低成本。

  • The revenue, there will not be significant revenue until 2015, 2016.

    收入方面,要到2015年、2016年才會有大的收入。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Next question goes to Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

    下一個問題是瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • My question is a follow-up on the 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer.

    我的問題是關於20奈米和16奈米的後續問題。

  • If you could talk about how customers are weighing -- choosing one versus the other, if you talk about the benefits?

    如果你能談談客戶如何權衡——選擇一種還是另一種,如果你談論好處?

  • And also do expect customers to choose one versus the other or a number of customers to migrate to both?

    是否還期望客戶選擇其中之一,還是希望大量客戶同時遷移到兩者?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • We talk to every one of them.

    我們與他們每一個人交談。

  • We talk to every one of them, every major one, painstakingly, explain to them painstakingly and exhaustively.

    我們與他們每一個人、每一個主要人物交談,煞費苦心、煞費苦心、詳盡地向他們解釋。

  • Now the smaller customers, we of course do it in the technical symposium that we hold three or four times a year.

    現在小客戶,我們當然是在每年舉辦三、四次的技術研討會上做。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So is that your question, do we explain to them the pros and cons of the 20 nanometer and the 16 nanometer?

    那麼你的問題是,我們是否向他們解釋20奈米和16奈米的優缺點?

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • More just a view.

    更多只是一個視圖。

  • Usually it's two years between each node and now it's one year.

    通常每個節點之間的間隔是兩年,現在是一年。

  • Are customers choosing one versus the other?

    客戶會選擇其中一種還是另一種?

  • Or do you expect customers to actually do designs year after year for both and would that add cost?

    或者您期望客戶年復一年地實際進行設計,這會增加成本嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I think that there will be customers that will go light on one and heavy on the other.

    我認為有些顧客會輕看其中一種,重重另一種。

  • And there may even be customers that will skip one -- skip 20 nanometer to get to 16 nanometer.

    甚至可能有客戶會跳過其中一個——跳過 20 奈米而達到 16 奈米。

  • So right now we're still in the discussion stage with a number of customers, with a number of -- a pretty large number of customers.

    所以現在我們仍處於與許多客戶的討論階段,有相當多的客戶。

  • But again, going back to my earlier point, we would not be making this kind of investment if we didn't have some very big customers already in view.

    但再次回到我之前的觀點,如果我們沒有考慮到一些非常大的客戶,我們就不會進行這種投資。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • My follow-up question, you mentioned CapEx in the same ballpark for next year.

    我的後續問題,您提到明年的資本支出處於同一水平。

  • Could you talk about the financial, how we should factor it in, if CapEx is in that ballpark, just depreciation, expense into next year in your view and structural profitability in light of that.

    您能否談談財務方面的問題,如果資本支出在這個範圍內,我們應該如何考慮它,您認為只是折舊、明年的費用以及據此考慮的結構盈利能力。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Lora, would you answer that?

    洛拉,你願意回答嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • We have not finalized the next year's CapEx, although Chairman talked about it will be in the range of the ballpark.

    我們尚未最終確定明年的資本支出,儘管主席談到這將在大致範圍內。

  • You can see this year the depreciation has increased by about 20%, maybe a little bit more than 20%.

    你可以看到今年貶值增加了20%左右,可能20%多一點。

  • With the ballpark that Chairman was just describing, I believe the depreciation will also increase at maybe 20% level for next year.

    根據主席剛剛描述的大概情況,我相信明年的貶值率也會增加20%左右。

  • But I don't want you to be scared by those depreciation increases because depreciation increase is not a problem as long as the capacity that we invest is getting utilized.

    但我不希望您被這些折舊增加嚇到,因為只要我們投資的產能被利用,折舊增加就不是問題。

  • And those products give the very similar or better structural profitability so it will not be a deteriorating factor to the overall margin.

    這些產品具有非常相似或更好的結構獲利能力,因此不會成為整體利潤率惡化的因素。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • It is our strategy to have 100% utilization at the leading edge.

    我們的策略是保持 100% 的利用率處於領先地位。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • All right.

    好的。

  • We will now take our next question from the call.

    我們現在將回答電話中的下一個問題。

  • Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

    接線員,請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International.

    下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納國際機場的邁赫迪‧侯賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您提出我的問題。

  • First one has to do with your commentary on Q1.

    第一個與您對第一季的評論有關。

  • You referred to it as a dip.

    您將其稱為下降。

  • Is the dip similar to Q4 level?

    跌幅與第四季的水平相似嗎?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Whether or not the magnitude of the dip in Q1 will be similar to the dip in Q4.

    Q1 的下降幅度是否與 Q4 的下降幅度相似。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • It will be in the same ballpark.

    它將在同一個球場。

  • The magnitude of the dip will be -- well, look, I would really hate to -- normally we don't really guide two quarters ahead of us.

    下降的幅度將是——嗯,看,我真的很不願意——通常我們不會真正領先我們兩個季度。

  • But last time I did give a rough indication of Q1.

    但上次我確實粗略地指出了第一季的情況。

  • Now -- so I really would hate to make a habit of it.

    現在——所以我真的不想養成這種習慣。

  • But since you asked, now I will honestly, I'll try to answer you as honestly as I can.

    但既然你問了,現在我就老實說,我會盡力誠實地回答你。

  • I think it's about the same ballpark.

    我認為這是差不多的。

  • We have -- what we forecast about to be 8% dip in the fourth quarter.

    我們預測第四季將下降 8%。

  • And Q1 I think will be in the same ballpark.

    我認為第一季也會處於同樣的水平。

  • But it's really a bit early for us to tell certainly.

    但現在下結論還為時過早。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • And then the second question has to do with the 20-nanometer and the tape-out.

    第二個問題與 20 奈米和流片有關。

  • How should we think about the number of tape-outs or the level of customer interest as you are installing the pilot line?

    當您安裝試驗線時,我們應該如何考慮流片數量或客戶興趣程度?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • The question is how many tape-outs on 20 nanometer that we have already received.

    問題是我們已經收到了多少 20 奈米流片。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • On 20, do we have a number, Lora?

    20 號,勞拉,我們有電話號碼嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • I think currently the 20-nanometer tape-out is roughly maybe around 50, 50 tape-outs, which is maybe one-fifth of our 28-nanometer tape-outs.

    我認為目前 20 奈米流片大約有 50、50 次流片,這可能是我們 28 奈米流片的五分之一。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • And the pilot line, should I assume that the pilot line would be constructed and ready by summer of next year?

    至於試驗線,我是否應該假設試驗線將在明年夏天建成並準備好?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • I can't hear you very clearly.

    我聽不清楚。

  • Can you repeat that again please, Mehdi?

    邁赫迪,你能再說一次嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Sorry about that.

    對於那個很抱歉。

  • Just to be clear, the 20-nanometer pilot line should be constructed and ready to go by the summer of next year, is that correct?

    需要澄清的是,20 奈米中試線應該在明年夏天建成並準備就緒,對嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • The 20-nanometer pilot line is, yes, Lora.

    20奈米中試線是,是的,Lora。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • We have start to spend money on 20 nanometer since this year.

    我們從今年開始就開始在20納米上花錢。

  • However, the real production will not start until 2014.

    不過,真正的生產要到2014年才會開始。

  • But we do have an engineering line per se being built up this year and next year.

    但我們確實在今年和明年建立了一條工程生產線。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Now we're coming back to the floor.

    現在我們回到地板上。

  • The next question goes to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

    下一個問題是美國銀行美林公司的 Dan Heyler。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Thank you, Elizabeth.

    謝謝你,伊麗莎白。

  • Thank you, Chairman and Lora, for the great introduction, comments and color on your products.

    感謝主席和 Lora 對你們產品的精彩介紹、評論和色彩。

  • I wanted to follow up on a question I had last quarter, a bit on the idea of perhaps building more of a focused fab approach for some of your larger customers versus the very diversified fabs that you currently run.

    我想跟進上個季度的一個問題,有點關於為您的一些大客戶建立更多專注的晶圓廠方法的想法,而不是您目前運營的非常多元化的晶圓廠。

  • I guess as you look at some of the largest mobile chip users in the world and you look at their product cycles it can be quite volatile with some huge swings on new product cycles back and forth.

    我想當你觀察世界上一些最大的行動晶片用戶並觀察他們的產品週期時,它可能會非常不穩定,新產品週期會出現巨大的來回波動。

  • I'm wondering as you manage those fabs, should we anticipate perhaps more volatility in those fabs versus your very diversified fabs?

    我想知道,當您管理這些晶圓廠時,我們是否應該預期這些晶圓廠與您非常多元化的晶圓廠相比可能會出現更大的波動?

  • Granted you're getting new business so perhaps it's good that you're generating more revenue, albeit perhaps with more volatility.

    假設您正在獲得新業務,那麼您創造更多收入也許是件好事,儘管可能會帶來更大的波動性。

  • Or do you think you can achieve the same level of returns on a focused fab versus a broad-based diversified fab.

    或者您認為您可以在專注的晶圓廠與基礎廣泛的多元化晶圓廠獲得相同水準的回報嗎?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Well to summarize Dan's very long question is the comment Chairman made last quarter about dedicated fabs for customers.

    總結一下丹的很長的問題是董事長上季度關於為客戶提供專用晶圓廠的評論。

  • Chairman made the dedicated fab comments.

    董事長作了專場點評。

  • And so Dan's question is given single product lifecycle, product lifecycle could be more volatile than a diversified pool of products.

    因此,丹的問題是,考慮到單一產品生命週期,產品生命週期可能比多元化產品池更不穩定。

  • So if we have fabs that are dedicated to one or two single products, we have to be able to manage higher volatility or Chairman thinks that the volatility will be about the same.

    因此,如果我們有專門生產一種或兩種單一產品的晶圓廠,我們必須能夠管理更高的波動性,否則董事長認為波動性將大致相同。

  • Volatility, more volatile.

    波動性更大,波動更大。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Specifically big new product cycles that take two quarters to ramp and then go away.

    特別是大型新產品週期需要兩個季度的時間才能完成,然後就會消失。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Let me try to figure what you really want to ask.

    讓我試著弄清楚你真正想問什麼。

  • You appear to be concerned that if we dedicate fabs to a certain customer, then that customer may leave the fab because he migrates to a more advanced technology.

    您似乎擔心,如果我們將晶圓廠專用於某個客戶,那麼該客戶可能會因為遷移到更先進的技術而離開晶圓廠。

  • Is that right?

    是對的嗎?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Yes, or a group of products that are dedicated to a fab.

    是的,或是專門用於晶圓廠的一組產品。

  • Indeed, thanks.

    確實,謝謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Well then I think it's important for us to be able to convert to a new technology -- to convert the fab to a new technology with as little loss as possible.

    那麼我認為能夠轉換為新技術對我們來說很重要——以盡可能小的損失將晶圓廠轉換為新技術。

  • And I think that's an art that the DRAM companies actually have learnt.

    我認為這是 DRAM 公司實際上已經學會的一門藝術。

  • And we have also done some of that.

    我們也做了一些這樣的事情。

  • But we are going to do the same thing the DRAM companies have done in the past.

    但我們將做 DRAM 公司過去做過的同樣的事情。

  • We are trying to make the product -- the equipment as commonly usable as possible.

    我們正在努力使產品——設備盡可能普遍使用。

  • I think that now of course we do have additional advantage because we do have a very large second wave of users.

    我認為現在我們當然有額外的優勢,因為我們確實有非常多的第二波用戶。

  • And we have always had that.

    我們一直都有這樣的情況。

  • We have always had that.

    我們一直都有這樣的情況。

  • And so in the past the second wave users have always begun to take over the fabs that the first wave users leave behind, and we'll continue to have that.

    因此,在過去,第二波用戶總是開始接管第一波用戶留下的晶圓廠,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Now I do want to clarify this business of dedicating fabs.

    現在我確實想澄清一下專用晶圓廠的事情。

  • I don't think that one should take that literally in many cases.

    我認為在很多情況下人們不應該從字面上理解這一點。

  • There may be or there will be very rare cases when we will dedicate something to a customer, but that's not going to be a very common practice.

    可能會有或將會有非常罕見的情況,我們會將一些東西奉獻給客戶,但這不會是一種很常見的做法。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • I guess I'll take a follow-up to that.

    我想我會對此進行跟進。

  • I guess the distinction being that your second wave adopters in the past were quite mainstream and quite broad-based.

    我想差別在於,過去的第二波採用者相當主流且基礎廣泛。

  • So if you're pushing the frontier technology quite a bit ahead, I'm wondering if there's a concern that that maybe [N minus 1] group may come later and hence perhaps the returns on the most advanced --.

    因此,如果您將前沿技術向前推進了很多,我想知道是否有人擔心 [N - 1] 組可能會稍後出現,因此可能會獲得最先進的回報。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • You're asking how we manage the second wave of customers?

    你問我們如何管理第二波客戶?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Whether the second wave adoption is sufficient as in the past to generate the higher returns.

    第二波採用是否足以像過去一樣產生更高的報酬。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Generate higher returns?

    產生更高的回報?

  • Well, yes, we generate a lot of returns from second wave and third wave and fourth wave.

    嗯,是的,我們從第二波、第三波和第四波中獲得了很多回報。

  • And I mean it.

    我是認真的。

  • Fourth and fifth wave, yes.

    第四波和第五波,是的。

  • Look we're still running a fab 2 and it's full more frequently than it's not.

    看,我們仍在運行 2 號晶圓廠,而且它滿載的頻率比不滿載的頻率要高。

  • By the way, fab 2, in case you have forgotten, is 6-inch 0.5 micron.

    順便說一句,以防萬一您忘記了,fab 2 是 6 英寸 0.5 微米。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So no -- you anticipate no change in the timeline between the early adopters and the second wave adoptions, even though you're putting your technology very, very leading edge, that that second wave will continue to be quite strong, even with a concentrated customer base and even with a very mobile focus.

    所以不——你預計早期採用者和第二波採用之間的時間線不會發生變化,即使你把你的技術放在非常非常前沿的位置,第二波浪潮將繼續相當強勁,即使有集中的客戶群,甚至具有非常移動的焦點。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Next question goes to Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

    下一個問題是高盛的 Donald Lu。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • I have two questions.

    我有兩個問題。

  • First is on the structural profitability.

    首先是獲利結構。

  • Chairman, you commented earlier that 28-nanometer margin would improve in the maybe first half next year.

    主席,您之前評論說28納米的利潤率可能會在明年上半年有所改善。

  • So could we assume the structural profitability, i.e.

    那麼我們是否可以假設結構性獲利能力,即

  • the gross margin will reach 50% at 100% utilization early next year?

    明年初利用率100%時毛利率將達50%?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Well we hope that it will be 50%, but you know 50% is something that we have very rarely done, frankly.

    嗯,我們希望是 50%,但坦白說,你知道 50% 是我們很少做到的事情。

  • So to assume that the corporate average is -- I think the 100% utilization is -- we do get 50%, yes, right.

    因此,假設公司平均水平是——我認為 100% 的利用率是——我們確實得到了 50%,是的,正確的。

  • But we're talking about corporate average next year.

    但我們談論的是明年的企業平均。

  • And next year, as I already said, we're going to start off with a not very good quarter.

    明年,正如我已經說過的,我們將以一個不太好的季度開始。

  • So next year's corporate average utilization is not going to be 100%.

    因此明年的企業平均利用率不會是100%。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I meant in assuming the utilization is 50 -- in Q3 I think utilization was a little bit over 100%, gross margin was 49%, 48.8%.

    我的意思是假設利用率為 50——在第三季度,我認為利用率略高於 100%,毛利率為 49%、48.8%。

  • So next year would be improving from this level.

    所以明年將會從這個水準有所改善。

  • I guess that's my question.

    我想這就是我的問題。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Your question is about 28 nanometer, right?

    你的問題是關於28奈米的,對嗎?

  • Is that right?

    是對的嗎?

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • 28 would be the key factor affecting this.

    28將是影響這一點的關鍵因素。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Well actually I really have a simple answer for you.

    好吧,實際上我真的有一個簡單的答案給你。

  • If you're asking about our total, the whole Company's structural profitability, the simple answer is it is a challenge every year.

    如果你問的是我們整個公司的結構性獲利能力,簡單的答案是每年都是一個挑戰。

  • But we have so far managed to at least maintain it.

    但到目前為止,我們至少設法維持了它。

  • And we actually have eked out a little progress in the last few years.

    事實上,我們在過去幾年中取得了一些進展。

  • And you can tell from the results, we have eked out a little progress.

    從結果中你可以看出,我們已經取得了一些進展。

  • But it's a challenge every year.

    但這每年都是一個挑戰。

  • But it's -- we consider it to be our major challenge, a major task.

    但我們認為這是我們的主要挑戰、一項重大任務。

  • And we are going to at least maintain this structural profitability.

    我們至少會維持這種結構性獲利能力。

  • It cannot be allowed to deteriorate.

    不能讓它惡化。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • The follow-up question on this after 20-nanometer, presumably you will do double patterning and the costs would increase.

    後續問題是20奈米以後,想必會做雙圖形,成本會增加。

  • On 40 nanometer, probably even more, EUV, etc.

    40 奈米,甚至可能更多,EUV 等。

  • Who is going to pay the bill going forward?

    未來誰來埋單?

  • If TSMC wants to maintain its structural profitability, will someone else have to pay for it or are they going to --?

    如果台積電想要維持其結構性獲利能力,其他人是否必須為此付出代價,或者他們會——?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • We will reduce the cost.

    我們會降低成本。

  • We reduce the cost.

    我們降低成本。

  • I don't think it's a question of who pays.

    我認為這不是誰付錢的問題。

  • It's never a zero-sum game.

    這從來都不是零和遊戲。

  • We'll reduce the cost.

    我們會降低成本。

  • And as you may or may not have noticed that our average rate of decline of price has slowed down in the last three years.

    您可能已經注意到,也可能沒有註意到,我們的平均價格下降速度在過去三年中已經放緩。

  • It has not -- it's still going down, but the rate of decline has slowed down.

    它沒有——仍在下降,但下降速度已經放緩。

  • I can't -- really don't want to tell you any more.

    我不能——真的不想再告訴你了。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I think we will go back to the call and have the next question come from the call.

    我想我們會回到電話會議並透過電話會議提出下一個問題。

  • Operator, please proceed.

    接線員,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Brett Simpson from Arete.

    下一個問題來自 Arete 的 Brett Simpson。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • I had a question for Lora just on the gross margin guidance for Q4.

    我有一個關於第四季度毛利率指引的問題向 Lora 詢問。

  • Can you maybe talk a little bit about how you see depreciation moving Q on Q and whether there's any changes ahead in other manufacturing costs per wafer?

    您能否談談您如何看待折舊對 Q 的影響以及每片晶圓的其他製造成本是否會發生任何變化?

  • Your guidance seems to imply there's some savings in cost of sales, so I just wanted to understand that more.

    您的指導似乎暗示銷售成本可以節省一些,所以我只是想更多地了解這一點。

  • And then the second question for Dr. Chang.

    然後是張博士的第二個問題。

  • Regarding the trend towards CoWoS and TSV, when we think about your wireless customers moving to these new packaging technologies, how do you engage with memory as part of this roadmap?

    關於 CoWoS 和 TSV 的趨勢,當我們考慮您的無線客戶轉向這些新封裝技術時,您如何將記憶體作為此路線圖的一部分?

  • And is there a need for a more strategic partnership with DRAM makers?

    是否需要與 DRAM 製造商建立更具策略性的合作關係?

  • And given there's so few mobile DRAM makers out there, how do you really manage this with your leading-edge wireless customers going forward?

    鑑於行動 DRAM 製造商如此之少,您如何真正管理您的領先無線客戶的未來發展?

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Brett, I think your first question is for Lora and your question is with respect to depreciation quarter-over-quarter increase and how that is impacting the cost.

    布雷特,我認為你的第一個問題是針對洛拉的,你的問題是關於折舊季度環比增長以及這如何影響成本。

  • Is that correct?

    那是對的嗎?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And also whether there's any changes in manufacturing -- other manufacturing cost per wafer.

    還有製造方面是否有任何變化——每片晶圓的其他製造成本。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • All right.

    好的。

  • How we can change the other manufacturing cost for the wafer manufacturing cost.

    我們如何改變晶圓製造成本的其他製造成本。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Other manufacturing costs.

    其他製造成本。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Second question, Brett, I think you need to clarify.

    第二個問題,布雷特,我認為你需要澄清一下。

  • You asked Chairman about TSV and you are talking about our 3D-IC packaging solution using TSV and with a memory partner, right?

    您向主席詢問了 TSV 問題,您談論的是我們使用 TSV 並與記憶體合作夥伴合作的 3D-IC 封裝解決方案,對吧?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yes, exactly.

    對,就是這樣。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • We'll have Lora answer your question first.

    我們先讓洛拉回答你的問題。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Your first question asking about quarter-over-quarter change of depreciation.

    您的第一個問題是關於折舊的季度變化。

  • Now we're in the third quarter now.

    現在我們已經進入第三季了。

  • The third quarter depreciation for the whole quarter is around TWD35b.

    第三季整季的折舊金額在TWD35b左右。

  • And we estimate the next quarter, fourth-quarter depreciation will be a little more TWD36b.

    而且我們估計下季、第四季都會貶值TWD36b多一點。

  • So each quarter it will increase slightly.

    所以每季都會略有增加。

  • You also ask about how do we reduce the non-depreciation cost.

    您也詢問我們如何降低非折舊成本。

  • To be frank with you, we have taken a significant effort in the past two months trying to reduce the all other costs, including the material purchase price, the indirect material used for the wafer, productivity and so on and so forth.

    坦白說,在過去的兩個月裡,我們付出了巨大的努力,試圖降低所有其他成本,包括材料採購價格、用於晶圓的間接材料、生產率等等。

  • That has been actually one of the continued efforts in TSMC.

    這其實是台積電持續努力的目標之一。

  • Especially when we see there's a continued two quarter in the downturn, the management team has put a lot of effort trying to reduce that.

    特別是當我們看到經濟低迷持續兩個季度時,管理團隊付出了很大的努力試圖減少這種情況。

  • And so far we have been quite successful in doing that.

    到目前為止,我們在這方面做得相當成功。

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • So Brett, could you please repeat your second question a little bit slow?

    布雷特,你能慢一點重複你的第二個問題嗎?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So when we think about the move to 3D packaging, particularly from a wireless perspective, how do you engage -- how does TSMC engage with memory as part of this roadmap?

    因此,當我們考慮轉向 3D 封裝時,特別是從無線角度來看,您如何參與——台積電如何參與記憶體作為此路線圖的一部分?

  • So is there a need for a more strategic partnership with mobile DRAM makers and how do you manage this with the leading-edge wireless customers?

    那麼是否需要與行動 DRAM 製造商建立更具策略性的合作夥伴關係?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Your question is when we move to 3D-IC packaging, how do we engage with memory makers to form a strategic alliance and how we manage that.

    您的問題是,當我們轉向 3D-IC 封裝時,我們如何與記憶體製造商建立策略聯盟以及如何管理這一聯盟。

  • Is that right?

    是對的嗎?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • We have been in active collaboration with two memory makers, Hynix and Micron.

    我們一直與兩家記憶體製造商 Hynix 和 Micron 積極合作。

  • Actually we started discussions with Elpida, but then they went bankrupt.

    其實我們開始和爾必達討論,但後來他們破產了。

  • But we have been in active collaboration and discussion with Hynix and Micron.

    但我們一直在與海力士和美光積極合作和討論。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Now we're coming back to the floor and the next question goes to -- you are in Daiwa now, right?

    現在我們回到會場,下一個問題是──你們現在在大和,對嗎?

  • Daiwa's Eric Chen.

    大和的埃里克·陳。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Actually my first question will probably go to Lora.

    實際上我的第一個問題可能會問 Lora。

  • Once you talked about the depreciation expenses for next year probably jump by 20% year on year.

    一旦你談到明年的折舊費用可能會比去年同期增加20%。

  • What kind of CapEx you assume?

    您假設什麼樣的資本支出?

  • Is it flat CapEx trend or up the CapEx, how many percent?

    資本支出趨勢持平還是上升,百分之幾?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • You're asking the question that I cannot answer.

    你問的問題我無法回答。

  • It's in the ball park Chairman just mentioned.

    就在剛才主席提到的棒球場。

  • Well of course, this is very preliminary because we are still in 2012.

    當然,這只是初步的,因為我們還處於 2012 年。

  • The number may change.

    該數字可能會改變。

  • So I just give you a range of -- based on the range of ballpark, it's in the 20% range.

    所以我只是給你一個範圍——基於大致範圍,它在 20% 的範圍內。

  • I can only say that.

    我只能這麼說。

  • It can be little bit higher.

    它可以高一點。

  • It can be little bit less.

    可以少一點。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And let's talk about the consensus on the CapEx for the TSMC next year probably around the USD10b.

    我們來談談台積電明年資本支出的共識,可能約 100 億美元。

  • If that's the case, let's talk about how the EBITDA for next year and I guess probably around USD11b to USD12b.

    如果是這樣的話,讓我們來談談明年的 EBITDA,我猜大概在 11b 美元到 12b 美元左右。

  • And we look at -- and then we look at the cash dividend and we probably have to give like $2.6b.

    我們看看 - 然後我們看看現金股息,我們可能必須給予 2.6b 美元左右。

  • So if that's the case, can I assume you are going to borrow like $2b as the corporate bond?

    那麼如果是這樣的話,我可以假設您將借入 20 億美元作為公司債嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Chairman just mentioned we borrow to pay dividend.

    主席剛才提到我們借錢是為了支付股息。

  • Every year we pay $2.6b dividend.

    我們每年支付 2.6b 美元股息。

  • So three years is 2.6 times 3. So we are planning to do that much of borrowing in the three-year timeframe.

    所以三年是 2.6 乘以 3。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Are you talking about the borrowing for the coming three years?

    您是在談論未來三年的借款嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Yes, including this year, of course.

    是的,當然包括今年。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And my second question, probably I need the answer from the Chairman.

    我的第二個問題,可能我需要主席的答覆。

  • If I am right and I remember you talked about year 2013 to year 2016 will be very strong, and strong for the semiconductors, strong for the --.

    如果我是對的,我記得你說過 2013 年到 2016 年將會非常強勁,對於半導體來說是強勁的,對於 -- 來說是強勁的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Either strong -- those four years will be either growth or strong growth.

    要嘛強勁——這四年要嘛是成長,要嘛是強勁成長。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • What kind of strong growth you're talking about?

    你所說的強勁成長是什麼樣的?

  • The more -- better than --?

    越多越好?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • You tell me.

    你告訴我。

  • You tell me.

    你告訴我。

  • You know.

    你知道。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I will say 20%.

    我會說20%。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • 20% is strong?

    20%強嗎?

  • Yes, okay.

    是的,好的。

  • I more or less agree with that.

    我或多或少同意這一點。

  • But those four years will be either growth or strong growth.

    但這四年要不是成長,就是強勁成長。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I see.

    我懂了。

  • Actually I would like to get an idea what's your logic behind?

    其實我想知道你背後的邏輯是什麼?

  • What kind of product, what kind of trend do you think the TSMC are on a very good position and to capture this kind of high growth?

    您認為什麼樣的產品、什麼樣的趨勢,台積電處於非常有利的位置,能夠捕捉到這種高成長?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • We're talking about mobile products.

    我們正在談論行動產品。

  • And basically I think it should be clear by now that we are -- our emphasis is on mobile product market segment and also leading-edge technology.

    基本上,我認為現在應該清楚我們的重點是行動產品細分市場以及領先的技術。

  • And whatever goes with leading-edge technology, like 3D-IC and whatnot.

    以及與尖端技術相結合的任何東西,例如 3D-IC 等。

  • Eric Chen - Analyst

    Eric Chen - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I see.

    我懂了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Next question goes to JPMorgan, Rick Hsu.

    下一個問題交給摩根大通 Rick Hsu。

  • Rick Hsu - Analyst

    Rick Hsu - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Hi, Chairman.

    主席您好。

  • Just one question from me.

    我只想問一個問題。

  • Can you talk a bit, a little bit about next year's outlook on a macro basis?

    您能談談明年的宏觀展望嗎?

  • For example, the macro economy forecast and the global semiconductor industry forecast, global foundry forecast and also how TSMC will perform relative to the global foundry average?

    例如宏觀經濟預測、全球半導體產業預測、全球代工預測、台積電相對於全球代工平均的表現如何?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • This year the semiconductor actually is negative growth, about 2%.

    今年半導體其實是負成長,約2%。

  • Based on what we have seen, next year forecast, semiconductor will grow about 3% for next year.

    根據我們所看到的,明年的預測,半導體明年將成長3%左右。

  • And what's your other questions?

    您還有其他問題嗎?

  • Rick Hsu - Analyst

    Rick Hsu - Analyst

  • The foundry growth and also how TSMC would perform relative to the foundry average.

    代工廠的成長以及台積電相對於代工廠平均的表現。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • We currently expect foundry will grow around 7% in 2013 and TSMC will outgrow foundry in 2013 as well.

    我們目前預計 2013 年代工將成長 7% 左右,台積電 2013 年的成長也將超過代工。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, semiconductor growth, I know that you are interested in it and we also keep track of it.

    嗯,半導體增長,我知道您對此感興趣,我們也對其進行追蹤。

  • But frankly, the total semiconductor growth is becoming less and less relevant to our growth plan.

    但坦白說,半導體的整體成長與我們的成長計畫越來越不相關。

  • And actually the total foundry growth, while still relevant, but also it's becoming less and less so.

    實際上,代工總量的成長雖然仍然相關,但也變得越來越少。

  • We feel that we are on a level in foundries by ourselves.

    我們覺得我們自己在代工廠中處於一個水平。

  • Rick Hsu - Analyst

    Rick Hsu - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Next question goes to Barclays, Andrew Lu.

    下一個問題是巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lu。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • Dr. Chang, Lora.

    張博士,洛拉。

  • Special congratulations to Dr. Chang and TSMC to get the most important order from your competitor.

    特別祝賀張博士和台積電獲得競爭對手最重要的訂單。

  • Some structural questions I have.

    我有一些結構性問題。

  • The first one --.

    第一個 - 。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I'm sorry I didn't hear your compliment.

    很抱歉我沒有聽到你的讚美。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • I said congratulations to Dr. Chang and TSMC to get the most important order from your competitor.

    我說恭喜張博士和台積電從你們的競爭對手那裡拿到了最重要的訂單。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • (Inaudible - microphone inaccessible).

    (聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法存取)。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • My first question, in the past 25 years TSMC keep its value proposition to keep most of the time ROE over 20% and surely maintain good margin.

    我的第一個問題,在過去的25年裡,台積電一直保持其價值主張,大部分時間ROE保持在20%以上,並且肯定保持良好的利潤率。

  • Will you take a lower margin order to below the corporate average ROIC in the next one or two years, while actually thinking about TSMC's strategic position in the next five to 10 years, which means some of these orders we might consider short-term we are giving up some margin.

    您是否會在未來一兩年內將利潤率較低的訂單降至低於企業平均投資回報率(ROIC),同時實際考慮台積電在未來五到十年的戰略地位,這意味著我們可能會考慮其中一些短期訂單放棄一些餘量。

  • But for five- or 10-year position we are willing to take this kind of low margin order in the beginning of time.

    但對於五年或十年的頭寸,我們願意在一開始就接受這種低保證金的訂單。

  • That's my first question.

    這是我的第一個問題。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I'm sorry I didn't really hear that.

    抱歉我沒有真正聽到。

  • I didn't understand it anyway.

    反正我沒看懂。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Andrew's comments was that we, in the past, said that we want to keep above 20% ROE.

    安德魯的評論是,我們過去說過,我們希望保持 20% 以上的 ROE。

  • And we -- his question is will we be willing to take lower-margin business for a short time, like two to three years, in order to improve our strategic position in the five to 10 years?

    他的問題是,我們是否願意在短時間內(例如兩到三年)從事利潤率較低的業務,以便在五到十年內提高我們的策略地位?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Do we take low-margin products in the first few years in order to improve our later position?

    我們是否會在前幾年採取低利潤產品以提高我們後來的地位?

  • Are you asking a philosophical question, my own philosophy?

    你是在問一個哲學問題,我自己的哲學嗎?

  • No, I do not do it because I have to live the next few years first.

    不,我不這樣做,因為我必須先活好接下來的幾年。

  • That's a personal philosophical answer.

    這是個人哲學答案。

  • Andrew Lu - Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • The second question I have, if your mobile customers are not adapting CoWoS in year 2014, because earlier Dr. Chang mentioned CoWoS won't ramp up until year 2015 or '16 to have a revenue contribution.

    我的第二個問題是,如果您的行動客戶在 2014 年沒有採用 CoWoS,因為之前張博士提到 CoWoS 直到 2015 年或 16 年才會增加收入貢獻。

  • So are you ready in-house packaging on packaging or you need to partner with some other packaging house to do the POP?

    那麼,您準備好在包裝上進行內部包裝了嗎?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I think that we are going to be partnering.

    我認為我們將會合作。

  • We are going to look at both possibilities, of course.

    當然,我們將考慮這兩種可能性。

  • We prefer to do it ourselves.

    我們更喜歡自己做。

  • But I think that we have become more flexible in partnering with OSATs.

    但我認為我們在與 OSAT 合作方面變得更加靈活。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • I think Dan will have a follow-up question.

    我認為丹會有一個後續問題。

  • Dan Heyler from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

    美國銀行美林公司的丹‧海勒 (Dan Heyler)。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • So just a few very short --.

    所以只有一些很短的——。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I thought he asked his question.

    我以為他問了他的問題。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • This is the follow-up.

    這是後續。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Very short housekeeping question for Elizabeth.

    向伊莉莎白提出的非常簡短的家政問題。

  • You can take a break and I'll keep it short.

    你可以休息一下,我會長話短說。

  • So could you walk through industrial, your industrial products?

    那可以介紹一下工業產品嗎?

  • What's in that category?

    該類別中有什麼?

  • I think I heard you say earlier communications was strong and I think I heard some of the communications and mobile-related strength was also helping drive industrial.

    我想我聽到你說早期的通訊很強大,我想我聽說一些通訊和移動相關的優勢也有助於推動工業發展。

  • So I wanted to understand what's in the industrial that's growing so strongly?

    所以我想了解這個行業中有什麼成長如此強勁?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Lora, will you answer what is included in industrial?

    Lora,你能回答一下工業包含什麼嗎?

  • Or you --?

    或者你 - ?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • It's growing strongly.

    它正在強勁增長。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • Many things included in industrial, such as Power IC, MCU, data converter, FLASH controller, PLD, MEMS and smartcard.

    工業領域包括很多東西,例如電源IC、MCU、數據轉換器、FLASH控制器、PLD、MEMS和智慧卡。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • You're not putting in the power management and communications?

    您沒有加入電源管理和通訊功能嗎?

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • No.

    不。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Because this is generic, it's standard.

    因為這是通用的,所以它是標準的。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And the second classification I think perhaps I wanted to ask on, on your definition of foundry.

    我想也許我想問第二個分類,即您對鑄造廠的定義。

  • Obviously the lines are getting blurred now.

    顯然,現在界線變得模糊了。

  • I think most of the capital equipment companies include Samsung in their concept of foundry.

    我認為大多數資本設備公司都將三星納入其代工概念中。

  • I know that it's both an IDM as well as a foundry as well as an equipment company.

    我知道它既是IDM公司,也是一家代工公司,同時也是一家設備公司。

  • So perhaps in your definition going forward whether or not you could talk about foundry growth incorporating your largest competitor, Samsung, when you're talking about forecasts.

    因此,也許在你未來的定義中,當你談論預測時,你是否可以談論包括你最大的競爭對手三星在內的代工成長。

  • Is that something that you would entertain?

    這是你願意接受的事嗎?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • You're frequently talking about a semiconductor forecast which in fact is not relevant to your forecast.

    您經常談論半導體預測,但實際上與您的預測無關。

  • What is important is your perception of the foundry growth industry.

    重要的是您對代工成長產業的看法。

  • But your forecasts are excluding Samsung.

    但你的預測不包括三星。

  • I'm wondering going forward if we could have your forecast for the foundry growth including Samsung.

    我想知道我們是否可以得到您對包括三星在內的代工成長的預測。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • I don't think our forecast excludes Samsung.

    我認為我們的預測不排除三星。

  • I think for Samsung semiconductor part, non -- well, for semiconductor we even include Samsung's memory.

    我認為對於三星半導體部分,非——嗯,對於半導體,我們甚至包括三星的記憶體。

  • And for the semiconductor ex memory we include Samsung's System LSI in our forecast.

    對於半導體前記憶體,我們的預測包括三星的系統 LSI。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Is his question whether our foundry forecast includes Samsung?

    他的問題是我們的代工廠預測是否包括三星?

  • I think it does.

    我認為確實如此。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Yes, we do.

    是的,我們願意。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • It does.

    確實如此。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Just Samsung's foundry business or their Logic business overall?

    只是三星的代工業務還是整個邏輯業務?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Their what?

    他們的什麼?

  • Their Logic business?

    他們的邏輯業務?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Overall, okay.

    整體來說,還可以。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Their Logic business.

    他們的邏輯業務。

  • I don't think they do any memory foundry, do they?

    我認為他們不做任何記憶體鑄造,是嗎?

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • They have their own products in Logic.

    他們在 Logic 中有自己的產品。

  • They also sell products into the merchant market.

    他們也將產品銷售到商業市場。

  • And they also have a dedicated foundry business.

    他們還有專門的代工業務。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I think our numbers include their -- Samsung's foundry numbers include Samsung's foundry numbers.

    我認為我們的數字包括三星的代工數字包括三星的代工數字。

  • Now if they make the products for themselves then we don't include that.

    現在,如果他們自己生產產品,那麼我們就不包括在內。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • Dan Heyler - Analyst

    Dan Heyler - Analyst

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Next question goes to Citigroup's Roland Shu.

    下一個問題是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

  • Roland Shu - Analyst

    Roland Shu - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • I think my question is for Lora.

    我想我的問題是問洛拉的。

  • Lora, can you talk about the photomask business since that was one of the strengths in your 3Q.

    Lora,您能談談光掩模業務嗎,因為這是您第三季的優勢之一。

  • How about the momentum in 4Q?

    第四季的勢頭如何?

  • And what's the application for this new photomask in 3Q?

    那麼這個新的光掩模在第三季有什麼應用呢?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

    Lora Ho - SVP, CFO & Spokesperson

  • I think this question coming from we have said third-quarter revenue was exceeding guidance probably because we have higher mask revenue, right?

    我認為這個問題來自我們說過第三季收入超過指導可能是因為我們的掩模收入更高,對吧?

  • Looking into fourth quarter, mask revenue overall will be less than third quarter.

    展望第四季度,口罩營收整體將低於第三季。

  • There will be a decline in mask.

    口罩將會出現下降。

  • However, the new tape-out mask will not decrease.

    不過,新的流片遮罩不會減少。

  • It's the repeated tape-out will reduce a lot of it.

    重複的流片會減少很多。

  • Mask has been a very good business for TSMC and it has a very good margin as well.

    掩模對於台積電來說是一項非常好的業務,而且利潤率也非常高。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Another follow-up question coming from the floor that goes to Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

    另一個後續問題是向高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 唐納德·盧 (Donald Lu) 提出的。

  • Donald Lu - Analyst

    Donald Lu - Analyst

  • Chairman, I'll take the opportunity to maybe ask a more long-term question.

    主席先生,我可能會藉此機會問一個更長期的問題。

  • As (inaudible) going forward to 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, from your discussion with your customers do you think the absolute growth of the high-end revenue, the leading-edge revenue will continue to grow at the same pace because of mobile computing?

    隨著(聽不清楚)向20奈米、16奈米的發展,從您與客戶的討論來看,您認為高端收入的絕對成長、前沿收入會因為行動運算而繼續以相同的速度成長嗎?

  • Or we are going to see like people are more hesitate to migrate after 20 nanometer, which seems to be a flexion point.

    或者我們會看到人們在 20 奈米之後會更加猶豫是否要遷移,這似乎是一個轉捩點。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • I think yes, the leading-edge revenue for each generation of leading edge will continue to grow as Moore's Law progresses.

    我想是的,隨著摩爾定律的推進,每一代前沿技術的前沿收入都會持續成長。

  • For instance, our 28-nanometer revenue is -- well its leading edge is now ahead of our 40 nanometer at the same stage.

    例如,我們的 28 奈米收入是——它的領先優勢現在領先於我們同一階段的 40 奈米。

  • So I anticipate the 20 nanometer will be the same way.

    所以我預計 20 奈米也會是同樣的情況。

  • So I think that will continue.

    所以我認為這種情況將會持續下去。

  • Now of course you didn't ask about -- nobody asked about how important EUV is, how important the 450 millimeter is.

    當然,你沒有問過——沒有人問過 EUV 有多重要,450 毫米有多重要。

  • They're very important.

    它們非常重要。

  • On EUV, I think it's the only economic way of doing, I won't say 10, but surely it will be the only economic way of doing 7. Even a 10, if we have a good EUV, a high throughput EUV, I think that our cost will be in good shape, will be in better shape.

    在 EUV 上,我認為這是唯一經濟的方式,我不會說 10,但它肯定是實現 7 的唯一經濟方式。的成本會處於良好狀態,會處於更好的狀態。

  • Of course we can use double patterning, triple patterning, quadruple patterning.

    當然我們可以使用雙重圖案、三重圖案、四重圖案。

  • But those we would like to avoid.

    但那些我們想避免的。

  • And to avoid them depends on getting ASML to succeed with their high throughput EUV.

    要避免這些問題,有賴於 ASML 的高通量 EUV 取得成功。

  • Now likewise 450 millimeters, that's going to be another impulse on cost reduction, I think.

    現在同樣是 450 毫米,我認為這將是降低成本的另一個推動力。

  • And I think that will cut in at -- 450 millimeter will cut in at the 7 nanometer.

    我認為這將在 450 毫米處切入,並將在 7 奈米處切入。

  • It may cut in earlier.

    它可能會更早切入。

  • I think Intel is talking about cutting in at 10 nanometer.

    我認為英特爾正在談論切入 10 奈米技術。

  • But my feeling is that it will cut in at 7 nanometer.

    但我的感覺是它會在7納米切入。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Donald, okay.

    唐納德,好吧。

  • In the interest of time I think we will just allow one last caller and we will give the venue to the call.

    出於時間考慮,我認為我們將只允許最後一位來電者,並且我們將提供通話地點。

  • Operator, please proceed.

    接線員,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Steven Pelayo from HSBC.

    下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Just a question on 28 nanometer.

    只是一個關於28奈米的問題。

  • TSMC is much larger than its competitors.

    台積電的規模比其競爭對手大得多。

  • It's going to have 20% of revenues in the fourth quarter from 28 nanometer when many of your smaller competitors are still struggling to get their first 5%.

    第四季 20% 的收入將來自 28 奈米,而許多規模較小的競爭對手仍在爭取第一個 5% 的收入。

  • So for now you're just dominating this space.

    所以現在你只是主宰這個領域。

  • The competition is trying to get more aggressive there.

    那裡的競爭正試圖變得更加激烈。

  • I'm curious what you think about the total capacity out there and if the competitive environment's going to be more intense, maybe by mid next year, at 28 nanometer.

    我很好奇您對現有的總產能有何看法,以及競爭環境是否會更加激烈(也許到明年中期)28 奈米。

  • Do you have any thoughts on that?

    您對此有什麼想法嗎?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • The total industry, foundry industry capacity on 28?

    整個產業中,鑄造業產能達28?

  • Well I think it's quite large.

    嗯,我認為它相當大。

  • But frankly, I think that in -- I know that in oxynitride, which is equivalent to our 28 LP, our 28 LP is oxynitride, I think that our competitors have produced pretty good yields, not nearly as good as ours, but good enough for them to sell.

    但坦白說,我認為在——我知道在氮氧化物中,相當於我們的28 LP,我們的28 LP是氮氧化物,我認為我們的競爭對手已經產生了相當好的產量,雖然不如我們的好,但足夠好供他們出售。

  • I think so.

    我想是這樣。

  • But on the high-K metal gate which is our 28 HP and our 28 HPM, I think that we will be the only one that has effective capacity -- effective capacity, I mean capacity that you can sell, that customers will accept.

    但在高K金屬門上,也就是我們的28 HP和28 HPM,我認為我們將是唯一擁有有效產能的公司——有效產能,我的意思是你可以出售、客戶會接受的產能。

  • I think that we'll be the only one on 28-nanometer high-K metal gate for quite a long time.

    我認為我們將在相當長的一段時間內成為唯一一家採用 28 奈米高 K 金屬閘極的公司。

  • And by that I mean two years maybe.

    我的意思是也許兩年。

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then one follow-up question, which is I'm curious about your customer discussions going on now.

    然後是一個後續問題,我對你們現在正在進行的客戶討論感到好奇。

  • The perception is that Samsung's probably going to have some free capacity available, maybe second half of 2013/2014, and maybe they're starting to engage more of your traditional customer base.

    人們認為三星可能會在 2013/2014 年下半年提供一些可用容量,並且可能會開始吸引更多的傳統客戶群。

  • Are you hearing that back from your customers that the potential that they may be being offered capacity elsewhere?

    您是否從客戶那裡聽到了他們可能在其他地方獲得容量的可能性?

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • The question is Samsung may have extra or free capacity at 28 nanometers starting 2013 and '14.

    問題是,從 2013 年和 14 年開始,三星可能在 28 奈米方面擁有額外的或空閒的產能。

  • Have we heard anything from our customers that Samsung has approached them and want to engage them?

    我們是否從客戶那裡聽說三星已與他們接洽並希望與他們合作?

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • So they will use that excess capacity to invade our customers, is that your question?

    所以他們會利用過剩的產能來入侵我們的客戶,這是你的問題嗎?

  • Steven Pelayo - Analyst

    Steven Pelayo - Analyst

  • That's my query, yes.

    這就是我的疑問,是的。

  • Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

    Morris Chang - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, if I were Samsung, I would certainly do it.

    好吧,如果我是三星,我肯定會這樣做。

  • So it's a question of whether we can prevent them from successfully doing it.

    所以問題是我們能否阻止他們成功。

  • Certainly if you want me to predict the outcome, I will predict to you.

    當然,如果你想讓我預測結果,我就會預測給你。

  • But you have to wait for a while to see the final outcome.

    但最終的結果還需要等待一段時間才能看到。

  • I have no doubt what the final outcome will be.

    我毫不懷疑最終的結果會是什麼。

  • Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

    Elizabeth Sun - Director of Corporate Communications

  • Steven, this is a very cheerful answer to your question and this is a very good ending for our today's conference and conference call.

    史蒂文,這是對你問題的一個非常愉快的回答,這也是我們今天的會議和電話會議的一個很好的結局。

  • Thank you very much for attending our session and we'll see you next quarter.

    非常感謝您參加我們的會議,我們下個季度再見。

  • Thank you and goodbye.

    謝謝,再見。