台積電 ADR (TSM) 2012 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(spoken in Chinese) Welcome to TSMC's second-quarter 2012 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎大家參加台積電2012年第二季財報暨電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

This is the first time that we are combining the quarterly earnings conference with the conference call and the event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

這是我們第一次將季度收益會議與電話會議結合起來，並透過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

If you're joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho will summarize our operations in the second quarter and give you our guidance for the next quarter.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長Lora Ho女士將總結我們第二季的營運情況，並為您提供下一季的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang will provide his general remarks on business outlook and state a couple of key messages.

隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表對業務前景的整體評論，並闡述一些關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms Lora Ho.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, good evening and good morning to everyone.

大家下午好，晚上好，早安。

We had a very good second quarter.

我們第二季的表現非常好。

The financial results came in at the high end of each of the guidance.

財務業績位於每項指引的高端。

Revenue grew 21% Q-over-Q to set a record of TWD128b.

營收季增 21%，創下新台幣 128b 的紀錄。

The strong demand for mobile computing devices and our leadership in 28-nanometer gave us a strong growth in the second quarter.

對行動運算設備的強勁需求以及我們在 28 奈米領域的領先地位使我們在第二季度實現了強勁成長。

On the margin side, second quarter gross margin was 48.6% or 0.9 percentage point higher than that in the first quarter.

毛利率方面，第二季毛利率為48.6%，較第一季提高0.9個百分點。

The increase of gross margin mainly came from the higher capacity utilization across all technologies.

毛利率的成長主要來自於所有技術產能利用率的提高。

Although 28-nanometer gross margin is currently below corporate average, we expect it will reach to corporate average by the first quarter 2013.

儘管28奈米毛利率目前低於企業平均水平，但我們預計到2013年第一季將達到企業平均水平。

Operating margin was 36.5% in second quarter, up 2.9 percentage points.

第二季營業利益率為36.5%，上升2.9個百分點。

Both R&D and SG&A expense as a percentage of revenue decreased by about 1 percentage point each.

研發費用和銷售管理費用佔收入的比例均下降了約 1 個百分點。

You may notice that we had a loss of TWD0.8b in our non-operating items.

您可能會注意到，我們的非經營項目損失了 TWD0.8b。

This is mainly due to a one-time impairment charge of TWD2.68b on our 5.6% holding in SMIC shares.

這主要是由於我們持有的中芯國際 5.6% 股份提列了新台幣 2.68b 的一次性減損費用。

This contributed to TWD0.09 drop of our second quarter EPS.

這導致我們第二季 EPS 下降 0.09 新台幣。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD1.61.

整體而言，我們第二季 EPS 為新台幣 1.61。

ROE was 26%.

股本回報率為 26%。

Let's move on to revenue by product segment.

讓我們繼續按產品部門劃分的收入。

We have seen revenue from all applications increase sequentially.

我們看到所有應用程式的收入都在連續增長。

Among the four major product segments, Communication increased by 27%, Computer increased by 20%, Consumer increased by 9% and Industrial-related revenue increased by 39% in the second quarter.

第二季四大產品領域中，通訊成長27%，電腦成長20%，消費品成長9%，工業相關收入成長39%。

The high growth of Industrial and Standard applications is mainly due to strong demand for ICs used in mobile computing devices, such as power management IC and touch controllers.

工業和標準應用的高成長主要是由於對行動運算設備中使用的IC的強勁需求，例如電源管理IC和觸控控制器。

In terms of technology, revenue from 28 grew nearly 90% in the second quarter.

技術方面，28第二季營收成長近90%。

We expect shipment of 28 to double in the third quarter.

我們預計第三季 28 的出貨量將翻倍。

Revenue from advanced technologies, that is 65-nanometer and below technologies -- and beyond technologies account for 61% of our second quarter revenue.

來自先進技術（即 65 奈米及以下技術以及超越技術）的收入占我們第二季收入的 61%。

Take a look at the balance sheet.

看一下資產負債表。

The cash and marketable securities ended the second quarter at TWD188b.

第二季末現金及有價證券價格為新台幣 188 元。

Accounts receivable and inventory amount went up as a result of business growth.

由於業務成長，應收帳款和存貨金額增加。

Current liabilities increased by TWD86b mainly due to the accrual of dividend payable of TWD78b.

流動負債增加 TWD86b，主要是因為提列應付股利 TWD78b。

On the cash flow side, we generated TWD70b from operations, invested TWD59b in capital expenditures, repaid TWD3.9b in short-term loans.

在現金流方面，我們從營運中產生了新台幣70b，投資了新台幣59b用於資本支出，償還了新台幣3.9b的短期貸款。

As a result our cash balance increased TWD7.6b to TWD178b at the end of the second quarter.

因此，我們的現金餘額在第二季末增加了 TWD7.6b 至 TWD178b。

Free cash flow generated in the second quarter was TWD10.5b.

第二季產生的自由現金流為TWD10.5b。

Let's look at the capacity.

我們來看看容量。

Our Fab-15 began volume production of 28-nanometer in the second quarter and we expect to ramp at a faster pace in the second half of this year.

我們的 Fab-15 於第二季開始量產 28 奈米，預計今年下半年產量將加快。

Given our CapEx, we expect our total capacity to increase by about 14% year over year and 12-inch capacity will increase about 21%.

考慮到我們的資本支出，我們預計總產能將年增約 14%，其中 12 吋產能將成長約 21%。

Now let me provide you our guidance for the third quarter.

現在讓我向您提供第三季的指導。

Based on our current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD29.76, we expect our revenue to be between TWD136b and TWD138b, which is a sequential growth of 6% to 8%.

根據我們目前的業務預期和預測匯率 TWD29.76，我們預計我們的營收將在 TWD136b 至 TWD138b 之間，季增 6% 至 8%。

We expect the third quarter gross margin is to be between 46% and 48% and operating margin between 34% and 36%.

我們預計第三季毛利率將在 46% 至 48% 之間，營業利潤率將在 34% 至 36% 之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to the Chairman.

讓我把講台轉向主席。

Thank you, Lora, and good afternoon mainly, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你，洛拉，女士們先生們，下午好。

Today, I will make a few comments on second quarter and third quarter and then I will also give you some color on the world economy, the supply chain inventory and our fourth quarter outlook.

今天，我將對第二季和第三季發表一些評論，然後我也會對世界經濟、供應鏈庫存和我們的第四季展望進行一些介紹。

And then I will talk about a few major technologies of ours.

然後我就講一下我們的幾個主要技術。

And then lastly, I will talk about the CapEx, capital intensity and growth.

最後，我將討論資本支出、資本強度和成長。

Our second quarter was a good one.

我們的第二季表現不錯。

We were actually quite pleased with it.

我們實際上對此非常滿意。

This year, every quarter, the major effort has been to ramp up 28-nanometers and in doing so of course we did incur a lot of costs.

今年，每個季度，我們的主要努力都是提高 28 奈米工藝，當然，我們確實為此付出了很多成本。

And also as a result, the gross margin of 28-nanometer all year this year will not be up to the corporate average standard.

也因此，今年28奈米全年的毛利率將達不到企業平均。

But in spite of all that and also in spite of an extraordinary item in the second quarter which Lora mentioned, the impairment charge of SMIC shares, which actually accounted for TWD0.09 earnings per share -- in spite of the unusual costs in the 28-nanometer ramp-up and the unusual item relating to the impairment charge of the SMIC shares, second quarter was good, was quite good.

但儘管如此，也儘管 Lora 提到的第二季度有一個非同尋常的項目，中芯國際股票的減值費用實際上佔每股收益 0.09 新台幣——儘管 28 年的成本不尋常。的成長和與中芯國際股票減損費用相關的不尋常項目，第二季度很好，相當不錯。

And we expect a good third quarter.

我們預計第三季業績良好。

We'll see a growth, as Lora has already guided, at the midpoint of our guidance.

正如洛拉（Lora）已經指導的那樣，我們將在指導的中點看到增長。

We will see a growth of about 7% in revenue in the third quarter, sequential quarter-to-quarter revenue growth of about 7%.

我們將看到第三季營收成長約7%，環比營收成長約7%。

And since we will not be -- we will not have the impairment charge in the third quarter, our EPS growth between second and third will actually be stronger than 7%.

由於我們不會在第三季產生減損費用，因此我們第二季和第三季的每股盈餘成長實際上將強於 7%。

Now -- so it looks okay.

現在——看起來還不錯。

Now, as we look into -- as we look further into the future, fourth quarter and the first quarter next year we do have some worrisome signs.

現在，當我們進一步展望未來、第四季和明年第一季時，我們確實看到了一些令人擔憂的跡象。

World economy as you know and I will not dwell on it, the outlook -- I'm actually talking about the outlook, the future outlook of the world economy and I'm comparing it now with the outlook as most people saw it four months ago, three months ago or six months ago.

你知道的世界經濟，我不會詳細討論前景——我實際上是在談論世界經濟的前景，未來的前景，我現在將其與大多數人四個月前看到的前景進行比較以前，三個月前或六個月前。

The outlook now certainly has deteriorated in the last three to six months.

在過去的三到六個月裡，前景肯定已經惡化。

The US which matters the most to us because our market is still very much, is majorly in the US, so the US economy matters to us the most.

美國對我們來說最重要，因為我們的市場還很大，主要在美國，所以美國經濟對我們來說最重要。

It is -- it has gone into a less optimistic situation than we saw at even three months ago.

事實是，它的情況比我們三個月前看到的更不樂觀。

The very good job creations record early in the year has now disappeared.

今年年初創造就業機會的良好記錄現已消失。

There does not seem to be any political solution in sight for the forthcoming financial cliff at the end of the year and retail sales, recent data are not good.

對於年底即將到來的金融懸崖和零售銷售，似乎沒有任何政治解決方案，最近的數據並不好。

And so the US -- outlook for the US economy has deteriorated in the last few months.

因此，美國——過去幾個月美國經濟前景惡化。

And then next to importance to us after the US economy, you have Europe, Japan, Mainland China and Taiwan.

對我們來說，除了美國經濟之外，還有歐洲、日本、中國大陸和台灣。

And I would say that the outlook for any of those economies has not improved in the last three months.

我想說的是，過去三個月這些經濟體的前景都沒有改善。

Now we of course have -- do pretty thorough, pretty extensive market research on our business.

現在我們當然對我們的業務進行了相當徹底、相當廣泛的市場研究。

And one key factor -- besides the world economy, one key factor of course is the supply chain inventory of our products.

其中一個關鍵因素——除了世界經濟之外，當然還有一個關鍵因素是我們產品的供應鏈庫存。

And that is not good.

這不好。

And I will give you some numbers.

我會給你一些數字。

At the end of the first quarter, the overall supply chain inventory, in days of inventory at the end of the first quarter was 6 days below seasonal.

第一季末，整體供應鏈庫存（以第一季末庫存天數計算）比季節性低 6 天。

At the end of second quarter it was 3 days above seasonal.

第二季末，比季節性高 3 天。

And we are forecasting that at the end of the third quarter it will be 12 days above seasonal.

我們預計，到第三季末，該天數將比季節性天數多 12 天。

And this of course indicates that there will be a correction in the fourth quarter.

這當然預示著第四季將會出現回調。

And we indeed are forecasting that there will be inventory correction in the fourth quarter to about -- at the end of fourth quarter, we forecast that the inventory will be only 8 days above seasonal.

我們確實預測第四季度庫存將調整至第四季末左右，我們預測庫存將僅比季節性高 8 天。

So 12 days at the end of the third quarter, 12 days above at the end of the third quarter and 8 days above at the end of fourth quarter.

因此，第三季末為 12 天，第三季末為 12 天，第四季末為 8 天。

And we also look at our customers' days of inventory.

我們也關注客戶的庫存天數。

The fabless customers at the end of first quarter was 2 days below and at the end of the second quarter, it was 4 days above.

第一季末的無晶圓廠客戶數量減少了 2 天，第二季末的數量增加了 4 天。

And we are forecasting that at the end of the third quarter, customers' DOI will be 10 days above.

我們預計到第三季末，客戶的DOI將在10天以上。

And there will be a correction but at the end of the fourth quarter it will still be 6 days above.

並且會有一個修正，但到第四季末仍將是6天以上。

Now those numbers are for the fabless customers.

現在這些數字適用於無晶圓廠客戶。

For IDM customers the pattern is similar.

對於 IDM 客戶來說，模式是相似的。

The numbers are different but the pattern is similar so I'm not going to talk about them.

數字不同，但模式相似，所以我不打算談論它們。

Our fabless customers account for a very large, the dominant majority of our sales anyway.

無論如何，我們的無晶圓廠客戶佔了我們銷售額的很大一部分，占主導地位。

We are now seeing a dip in our revenue in the fourth quarter, a dip from the third quarter level.

我們現在看到第四季的收入比第三季的水平有所下降。

I think it will be a dip.

我認為這將會有所下降。

Our forecast -- not just I think, our forecast -- is that the dip will not be nearly as serious as the dip we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2008.

我們的預測——不僅僅是我認為，我們的預測——是，下降幅度不會像我們在 2008 年第四季經歷的那麼嚴重。

That I wouldn't even call a dip; I would call it a plunge.

我甚至不會稱之為下跌；我稱之為暴跌。

But this one I think is a dip of certainly far more modest magnitude than that one.

但我認為，這次下跌的幅度肯定比那次要小得多。

Now as to exactly how much it will be I think it's too early to say, but we can see that there will be a dip.

現在至於具體是多少，我認為現在說還為時過早，但我們可以看到將會有所下降。

And we have of course accordingly made preparations.

我們當然也做了相應的準備。

We have seen it coming for at least a month, maybe two months now.

我們已經看到它的到來至少一個月了，現在可能兩個月了。

We saw early signs of it actually three months ago, but that was -- those were very, very early signs.

事實上，我們在三個月前就看到了它的早期跡象，但那是——那些是非常非常早期的跡象。

But two months ago we became surer and one month ago we became pretty sure that there would be a dip in the fourth quarter.

但兩個月前我們變得更加確定，一個月前我們非常確定第四季會出現下滑。

Now further, we also think that the dip will continue into the first quarter.

現在，我們也認為這種下滑將持續到第一季。

And then still further, we see a pretty healthy recovery in the second quarter.

更進一步，我們看到第二季出現相當健康的復甦。

So in summary, I'm saying that we will have a dip, a dip that will last two quarters, fourth quarter and first quarter next year.

總而言之，我想說的是，我們將會下滑，這種下滑將持續兩個季度，即明年第四季和第一季。

And by the second quarter, it will have rebounded pretty strongly.

到第二季度，它將出現相當強勁的反彈。

Those are the indications that we have now.

這些就是我們現在掌握的跡象。

Now I'd like to say a few words about our technology progress.

現在我想談談我們的技術進步。

28-nanometer is progressing very well.

28奈米進展非常順利。

Our output and our yields are both above the plans that we set for ourselves and the plans that we communicated to our customers early in the year.

我們的產量和產量都高於我們為自己設定的計劃以及我們年初向客戶傳達的計劃。

Early in the year means March.

年初指的是三月。

I'm sorry, January, February of the year we set our plans in output and in yields.

抱歉，我們在當年的一月、二月制定了產量和單產計畫。

And we of course tried -- ever since then, we tried to exceed the plan and we had also communicated the plan to our customers at that time.

我們當然嘗試過——從那時起，我們就嘗試超越計劃，當時我們也將計劃傳達給了我們的客戶。

And we have indeed exceeded the plan in both output and yields.

我們確實在產量和產量上都超出了計劃。

We expect to ramp up to about 68,000 wafers per month by the end of the year, 28-nanometer -- 68,000 12-inch wafers per month by the end of the year.

我們預計到今年年底，晶圓產量將增加至每月約 68,000 片，28 奈米晶圓片－12 吋晶圓產量將增加至每月 68,000 片。

And by fourth quarter we will be nearly caught up with the demand now and we expect to fully meet the demand from the first quarter on.

到第四季度，我們將幾乎趕上現在的需求，我們預計從第一季開始就能完全滿足需求。

First quarter of 2013 on, we will fully meet the 28-nanometer demand.

2013年第一季開始，我們將全面滿足28奈米的需求。

It is also then that we expect that the 28-nanometer gross margin will catch up with the corporate average.

也正是在那時，我們預計28奈米毛利率將趕上企業平均。

As I said today, both the defect density [and use] are better than 40-nanometer at the same stage of the volume ramp.

正如我今天所說，在產量提升的同一階段，缺陷密度[和使用]都優於 40 奈米。

And they are also better than what we have -- what we planned early in the year and what we communicated to our customers at that time.

它們也比我們現有的更好——我們年初的計劃以及當時與客戶溝通的內容。

Now next, a few words on 20-nanometer, 20 SoC.

接下來，簡單介紹一下 20 奈米、20 SoC。

We have made very good progress on the 112 megabyte SRAM yield.

我們在 112 MB SRAM 產量方面取得了巨大進展。

Now there are still challenges to overcome in reducing the -- I'm sorry I take it back.

現在，在減少污染方面仍然存在一些挑戰需要克服——很抱歉我收回剛才的話。

There are still challenges to overcome in meeting our yield plan of the entire chip.

要滿足我們整個晶片的良率計劃，仍然存在需要克服的挑戰。

We have made very good progress on 112 megabyte SRAM but there are still challenges to overcome in meeting our yield plan of the entire chip which has both the logic and the SRAM on it of course.

我們在 112 MB SRAM 方面取得了非常好的進展，但在滿足整個晶片（當然包含邏輯和 SRAM）的產量計劃方面仍然存在挑戰需要克服。

Our 20-nanometer SoC we believe is fully competitive with industry leaders, other companies' 22-nanometer for the served available markets that we serve.

我們相信，對於我們所服務的可用市場，我們的 20 奈米 SoC 與行業領導者以及其他公司的 22 奈米 SoC 具有充分的競爭力。

For our markets we believe our 20 SoC is fully competitive with anyone's 20 or 22-nanometer offering.

對於我們的市場，我們相信我們的 20 SoC 與任何人的 20 或 22 奈米產品相比具有充分的競爭力。

And one important point to make is that our 20-nanometer has the industry's leading metal pitch of 64-nanometers.

需要強調的一點是，我們的 20 奈米擁有業界領先的 64 奈米金屬間距。

Our leading competitors have 80-nanometer metal pitch.

我們的主要競爭對手擁有 80 奈米金屬間距。

That allows an advantage in the devices' density and dye size.

這使得裝置的密度和染料尺寸具有優勢。

Now as for the timing we expect our 20-nanometer technology to be qualified by the end of this year and we'll be ready to support customers' tape-outs in Q1 of 2013.

現在就時間而言，我們預計我們的 20 奈米技術將在今年年底前獲得認證，並且我們將準備好在 2013 年第一季支援客戶的流片。

Now today, last time I mentioned that we would have a FinFET product after 20 SoC.

今天，上次我提到我們將在 20 SoC 之後推出 FinFET 產品。

And today I'm glad to say that we have been planning the 16-nanometer FinFET.

今天我很高興地說，我們一直在規劃 16 奈米 FinFET。

Right after our 20-nanometer planar, which is the 20 SoC, we will offer FinFET at 16-nanometer for significant active power reduction.

在我們的 20 奈米平面（即 20 SoC）之後，我們將提供 16 奈米 FinFET，以顯著降低有功功率。

We expect to achieve speed and density, speed and logic density levels comparable to industry's leading players 14-nanometer FinFET.

我們期望實現與業界領先廠商 14 奈米 FinFET 相當的速度和密度、速度和邏輯密度等級。

So we expect our 20 SoC to be competitive with competitors' 22 or 20 products and we expect our 16 FinFET to be competitive with our competitors' 14-nanometer FinFET products.

因此，我們預計我們的 20 SoC 能夠與競爭對手的 22 或 20 產品競爭，並且我們預計 16 FinFET 將能夠與競爭對手的 14 奈米 FinFET 產品競爭。

You might ask why are we calling it 16.

你可能會問為什麼我們稱它為 16。

The only reason in fact until two days ago we were undecided on whether to call it 14 or 16 FinFET.

事實上唯一的原因是直到兩天前我們還沒有決定將其稱為 14 還是 16 FinFET。

Now the only reason we decided to call it 16 FinFET is first we want to be somewhat modest.

現在我們決定將其稱為 16 FinFET 的唯一原因是首先我們希望保持謙虛。

Second, we had told quite a few major customers of ours, the 16 FinFET, that designation and we didn't want to confuse our customers by now switching to 14.

其次，我們已經告訴了相當多的主要客戶我們的 16 FinFET 這個名稱，我們不想現在改用 14 來混淆我們的客戶。

But we expect it to be competitive with other people's 14 offerings.

但我們預計它能夠與其他人的 14 種產品競爭。

Now the 16-nanometer FinFET, our 16-nanometer FinFET is expected to deliver about 25% speed gain given the same standby power over the 20-nanometer SoC.

現在是 16 奈米 FinFET，在與 20 奈米 SoC 相同的待機功耗的情況下，我們的 16 奈米 FinFET 預計將提供約 25% 的速度增益。

It's expected to give 25% to 30% power reduction at the same speed and the same standby power.

預計在相同速度和相同待機功耗的情況下，可降低 25% 至 30% 的功耗。

And for mobile products it's expected to give 15% to 20% speed gain at the same total power.

對於行動產品，預計在相同的總功率下速度可提高 15% 至 20%。

As for timing we expect it to be about one year after 20 SoC.

至於時間，我們預計在 20 SoC 之後一年左右。

Namely it should be ready for risk production at the end of 2013 or early 2014, about one year later than the 20 SoC.

也就是說，它應該在2013年底或2014年初做好風險生產準備，比20 SoC晚大約一年。

Now I want to make some comments about CapEx, capital intensity and growth.

現在我想就資本支出、資本密集度和成長發表一些評論。

I know that several analysts have written about foundry industry's capital intensity and our TSMC's capital intensity and so on and so on.

我知道有幾位分析師寫過關於代工產業的資本密集度和我們台積電的資本密集度等等等等。

I'm addressing the subject today because I have seen all these reports.

我今天談這個主題是因為我看到了所有這些報道。

I have seen them without agreeing with them, you see -- without agreeing with some of them.

我見過他們，但不同意他們的觀點，你看，我並不同意其中的一些觀點。

Anyway there are some that I do agree with.

無論如何，有些我確實同意。

Now why are we having such high capital intensity now?

為什麼我們現在的資本密集度如此高？

Well, I think this is actually a focus point of our internal discussions among our top level managers for the last two years now.

嗯，我認為這實際上是過去兩年我們高階主管內部討論的焦點。

And basically we invest in capacity to get future growth.

基本上，我們投資於產能以獲得未來的成長。

So you look back at history.

所以你回顧一下歷史。

If you look at the -- our TSMC history, during '97 and '02, between 1997 and 2002, during that six year period, TSMC's capital intensity ratio stayed mostly above 60%, 60% during that six year period.

如果你看我們台積電的歷史，在97年和02年期間，在1997年到2002年之間，在這六年期間，台積電的資本密集度比率大部分保持在60％以上，在這六年期間為60％。

And there was, as you recall, there was a high tech bubble bursting in late 2000 and early 2001.

正如你所記得的，2000 年底和 2001 年初，高科技泡沫破裂了。

But in spite of that, our revenue CAGR between '97 and '07, after having spent a lot of capital, having sustained high capital intensity for six years, '97 to '02, our revenue CAGR between '97 and '07 -- that's a ten year period -- was 20%.

但儘管如此，我們在97 年至07 年之間的收入複合年增長率，在花費了大量資本並持續了六年的高資本密集度之後，從97 年到02 年，我們在97 年到07年之間的收入複合年增長率——那是十年的時間——是 20%。

Compounded annual growth rate of 20% in revenue during the ten-year period, the first six of which was marked by high capital intensity.

十年期間收入複合年增長率為20%，其中前六年的特徵是資本密集度較高。

During that '97 to 2007 period, foundry industry growth was 16% in the same period and ours was 20%.

97年到2007年期間，鑄造業同期成長率為16%，而我們的成長率為20%。

As a result our market share rose from -- foundry market share rose from 31% in '97 to 43% in '97 -- in '07.

結果，我們的市佔率從 07 年的代工市佔率從 97 年的 31% 上升到 97 年的 43%。

31% in '97 to 43% in '07.

97 年為 31%，07 年為 43%。

So when we had those internal discussions about capital and that's really a major focus of our internal discussions, top level managers I mean, we look at four things.

因此，當我們進行有關資本的內部討論時，這確實是我們內部討論的主要焦點，我的意思是高層管理人員，我們會考慮四件事。

First, are we going to be the technology leader in the capacities that we are investing in?

首先，我們是否會成為我們所投資的能力的技術領導者？

So the first question is, are we going to be the technology leader?

所以第一個問題是，我們會成為技術領導者嗎？

The second question we ask ourselves is, are we going to be able to retain our leadership in flexible and responsive manufacturing?

我們問自己的第二個問題是，我們是否能夠保持在靈活和響應式製造領域的領先地位？

So we ask ourselves the question, technology are we going to be the leader; manufacturing are we going to be the leader?

所以我們問自己這個問題，技術我們會成為領導者嗎？製造業我們會成為領導者嗎？

The third question that we ask ourselves, are we going to retain the customers' trust, major, major customers' trust or perhaps are we going to even add customers?

我們問自己的第三個問題，我們是否要保留客戶的信任，主要客戶的信任，還是我們會增加客戶？

And then the fourth question we ask ourselves is, at the price and cost we expect on the new technologies, the capacities of which we are investing in, at the expected cost and price, are we going to be profitable, are we going to be able to make the same kind of money that we have gotten accustomed to?

然後我們問自己的第四個問題是，按照我們對新技術的預期價格和成本，我們正在投資的產能，按照預期的成本和價格，我們是否會盈利，我們是否會盈利？習慣的那種錢嗎？

Only if the answers to all four questions is yes, only if we are confident in those four issues, four points, do we start to spend the capital money.

只有四個問題的答案都是肯定的，只有我們對這四個問題、四點有信心，我們才開始花錢。

Now, all right -- I actually have not made a secret of that -- in 2010, I believe late 2010, I told you that 2010 was the first year we started to spend a lot of capital.

現在，好吧——我實際上並沒有隱瞞這一點——在2010年，我相信是2010年底，我告訴過你們，2010年是我們開始花費大量資本的第一年。

In late 2010 I told you that our goal was to achieve -- in the following five years, achieve a growth of an EPS -- I'm sorry, a pre-tax income, a pre-tax profit growth of 10% CAGR in the 2010 to 2015 period.

2010年底我告訴你們，我們的目標是在接下來的五年內實現每股收益的增長，對不起，稅前收入、稅前利潤複合年增長率為10% 2010年至2015年期間。

At that time which was late 2010, I said that our goal, financial goal was to achieve a 10% pre-tax income growth, CAGR and retain or exceed a ROE of 20%.

當時是2010年底，我說我們的目標，財務目標是實現稅前收入成長10%，複合年增長率和維持或超過20%的ROE。

10% pre-tax income growth, 20% ROE.

稅前收入成長10%，淨資產收益率20%。

Well, that was two years ago in 2010.

嗯，那是兩年前的 2010 年了。

And we have now raised our goals.

我們現在提高了目標。

It is not 10% any more although the ROE we still keep it at equal or greater than 20% ROE.

儘管ROE我們仍然保持在等於或大於20%的ROE，但它不再是10%了。

But the growth, the pre-tax income growth goal is more than 10% now.

但成長方面，現在稅前收入成長目標是10%以上。

I am not prepared to answer you yet what it is.

我還不准備回答你那是什麼。

But let me assure you that when I say it's more than 10%, I don't mean that it's 10.1%, okay.

但我向你保證，當我說超過 10% 時，我並不是說是 10.1%，好吧。

It's significantly above 10%.

明顯高於 10%。

And so -- and we believe that this is not only the right strategy, it is the only strategy, if you want to do well by your shareholders.

因此，我們相信，如果您想為股東帶來好處，這不僅是正確的策略，也是唯一的策略。

We believe it's the only strategy.

我們相信這是唯一的策略。

And as far as this year's CapEx is concerned at this point we are still following the guidance that we gave you last time I believe, $8b to $8.5b at this point (inaudible).

就今年的資本支出而言，我們仍然遵循上次給您的指導，我相信，目前為 8 億美元至 8.5 億美元（聽不清楚）。

Next year we are not going to forecast until early next year.

明年我們要到明年初才會做出預測。

But I think I have already given you a view of our reasoning and our strategy and our objectives.

但我想我已經向你們介紹了我們的推理、我們的策略和我們的目標。

But as to the exact number I will not give you until early next year.

但具體數字我要到明年初才能告訴大家。

All right, I believe those -- I have finished my prepared comments.

好吧，我相信這些——我已經完成了我準備好的評論。

I believe we are open for questions now, are we not?

我相信我們現在可以接受提問，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session I want to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two, no more than two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions to the management.

在開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家，請將問題限制在兩個以內，一次不要超過兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會向管理層提問。

Questions will be taken from the floor as well as from the call.

問題將從現場和電話中提出。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our CEO or CFO answer your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的執行長或財務長回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the floor and that goes to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

我們的第一個問題來自會場，提問者是美國銀行美林公司的 Dan Heyler。

Thank you very much, Elizabeth, and thanks for the new format.

非常感謝你，伊莉莎白，也感謝新的格式。

Hopefully we'll all get a little more sleep and I hope you're feeling better.

希望我們都能多睡一會兒，希望你感覺好一點。

It sounds like you have the same cold that I have, Dr. Chang.

聽起來你和我得的感冒是一樣的，張醫生。

A quick question.

一個簡單的問題。

On the IDM models here we've seen this -- the IDM model work for high-volume businesses such as the CPU business and the memory business.

在 IDM 模型中，我們已經看到了這一點——IDM 模型適用於大批量業務，例如 CPU 業務和記憶體業務。

Given the huge amount of demand and growth in the application processor market that we're seeing proliferate in the mobile area, and with competitors scaling up their manufacturing facilities, I'm wondering if it would help TSMC's efficiencies to start to dedicate some lines or specific fabs to be more product focused as you go forward in these very high-volume businesses?

考慮到我們在行動領域看到的應用處理器市場的巨大需求和成長，以及競爭對手擴大其製造設施，我想知道開始專用一些生產線或當您在這些大批量業務中前進時，特定的晶圓廠是否更重視產品？

Or will you keep your very large, broad-based fabs?

或者你會保留你的大型、基礎廣泛的晶圓廠嗎？

So the question is, are we going to dedicate more lines to products, specific products, is that right?

所以問題是，我們是否要專門開發更多產品線，特定產品，對嗎？

Will your manufacturing strategy change, yes.

您的製造策略會改變嗎？

No.

不。

Well, you first started to talk about IDM and were you asking me about the future of the foundry fabless model?

嗯，您首先開始談論IDM，您是在問我代工廠無晶圓廠模式的未來嗎？

You wrote about that, yes.

你寫過這個，是的。

Do you think you need you need to dedicate some fabs to product-specific areas that are very high volume?

您是否認為您需要將一些晶圓廠專門用於產量非常大的特定產品領域？

Actually yes.

其實，是。

I think that's almost a natural outcome, the way the market is trending.

我認為這幾乎是一個自然的結果，也是市場趨勢的結果。

I think that there are going to be larger customers.

我認為將會有更大的客戶。

And now it makes complete sense to dedicate a whole fab to just one customer, a whole fab, or two whole fabs in fact to just one customer.

現在，將整個晶圓廠奉獻給一位客戶、一整座晶圓廠或實際上將兩座整個晶圓廠奉獻給一位客戶是完全有意義的。

Now remember we made our mark in serving many customers.

現在請記住，我們在為眾多客戶提供服務中留下了印記。

In fact that's a -- really part of our secret sauce of success, the ability to serve many customers to their satisfaction.

事實上，這確實是我們成功秘訣的一部分，也就是為許多客戶提供滿意服務的能力。

And we still will retain that capability.

我們仍然會保留這種能力。

But there are customers that are getting bigger and bigger, so it makes sense that we dedicate a whole fab, or even more than a whole fab to just one customer.

但有些客戶的規模越來越大，因此我們將整個晶圓廠甚至不只一個晶圓廠奉獻給一個客戶是有道理的。

As far as our specific products are concerned, well, right now we are already concentrating, for instance Taichung will have the vast majority of 28 nanometers whereas Tainan will have the vast majority of 20 SoC and 16 FinFET.

就我們具體的產品來說,嗯,現在我們已經在集中了,比如說台中絕大多數是28奈米,台南絕大多數是20 SoC和16 FinFET。

And both of those manufacturing centers are under one manager.

這兩個製造中心都由一名經理領導。

Taichung is under one manager, Tainan is under one manager.

台中一經理，台南一經理。

I don't know whether I've answered your question.

我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。

Yes you did, thank you very much.

是的，你做到了，非常感謝。

Second question and then I'll get back in the queue.

第二個問題，然後我會回到佇列。

We heard you today, as well as ASML, talk about 20 nanometer ramp towards I think tapeouts, I think, in next year, in 2013.

今天我們聽到你們以及 ASML 談論 20 奈米的流片，我想是在明年，也就是 2013 年。

And we're seeing obviously some significant challenges currently, as you highlighted, in 28 nanometer with high-k metal gate.

正如您所強調的，我們目前顯然看到了採用高 k 金屬閘極的 28 奈米技術面臨的一些重大挑戰。

Given that you've got high-k metal gate challenges, double patterning on 28, two big changes, what's the visibility, in your sense, in really being able to execute 20 nanometer beyond the second half of next year?

鑑於您面臨高 k 金屬閘極挑戰、28 上的雙重圖案、兩個重大變化，在您看來，真正能夠在明年下半年之後實現 20 奈米的可見性是什麼？

Would we be able to see volume there and what gives you the level of confidence?

我們能看到那裡的成交量嗎？

I think that we'll start some production of 20 nanometer next year, but small scale, very, very low, what we would call risk type of production.

我認為我們明年將開始一些 20 奈米的生產，但規模很小，非常非常低，我們稱之為風險類型的生產。

But 2014 will be a ramp year for 20 SoC.

但 2014 年將是 20 SoC 的成長年。

Okay.

好的。

We are pretty sure of that.

我們對此非常確定。

Just a quick clarification.

只是快速澄清一下。

In your earlier comment you talked about FinFET, that you would be competitive at 20 nanometer with your --

在您之前的評論中，您談到了 FinFET，您將在 20 奈米技術上具有競爭力——

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

In answering you I haven't --

在回答你時我沒有——

Good.

好的。

Included it.

包括它。

20 SoC, which is planar, will ramp in 2014.

20 SoC（平面）將於 2014 年開始量產。

And we believe that 16 FinFET will ramp in perhaps the second half of 2015.

我們相信 16 FinFET 可能會在 2015 年下半年實現量產。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And just one clarification on something you said, if I may.

如果可以的話，我只是對你所說的內容做一個澄清。

You talked about TSMC being competitive at 20 nanometer relative to the industry leader who's at 22.

您談到台積電在 20 奈米製程上相對於業界領先者 22 奈米製程具有競爭力。

Competitive?

競爭的？

Competitive, right.

有競爭力，對吧。

That competitor, I believe, is doing FinFET at 22.

我相信那個競爭對手在 22 歲時就開始做 FinFET 了。

So are you including that in your statement?

那麼您是否將這一點納入您的聲明中？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

But I also said in our served markets, yes.

但我也在我們服務的市場中說過，是的。

True.

真的。

Which would not include high-performance CPUs.

其中不包含高性能CPU。

Sure.

當然。

Mobile?

移動的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright.

好吧。

It seems we have people on the conference call.

看來我們有人參加電話會議。

So I'm just going to open the line to the call first.

所以我要先打開通話線路。

We'll take our next question from the call.

我們將在電話中回答下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller.

接線員，請接聽第一位來電者。

The first question today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna.

今天的第一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的邁赫迪·侯賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。

Mehdi, your line is now open.

邁赫迪，您的線路現已開通。

Yes, thank you for taking my question and thanks for the new format.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題並感謝新格式。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

Dr. Chang, you talked about the Q4, Q1 trend, at the same time the 28 nanometer gross margin should reach the corporate average.

張博士，您談到了Q4、Q1的趨勢，同時28奈米毛利率應該達到企業平均。

So how should we reconcile lower shipment as a result of customers reducing inventory with a better margin profile for 28 nanometer?

那麼，我們該如何協調因客戶減少庫存而導致的出貨量下降與 28 奈米更好的利潤狀況之間的矛盾呢？

And I have a follow up.

我有一個後續行動。

The question is why couldn't we delay shipments until the margin becomes better?

問題是為什麼我們不能推遲發貨直到利潤變得更好？

No?

不？

I think the --

我覺得 -

No, no.

不，不。

As you mentioned a dip in shipment in Q4, Q1 timeframe, and that obviously will have an impact on utilization rate and margin, how should I reconcile that with 28 nanometer margin profile that is actually improving and reaching the corporate average?

正如您所提到的，第四季度、第一季的出貨量下降，這顯然會對利用率和利潤產生影響，我應該如何將其與實際上正在改善並達到公司平均水平的28 奈米利潤狀況相協調？

Mehdi, your question is Q4 and Q1 will appear to be a down quarter where we will have some margin pressure.

邁赫迪，你的問題是第四季和第一季似乎是一個下滑的季度，我們將面臨一些利潤壓力。

At the same time, our 28 nanometer margin will go to the corporate level by the first quarter.

同時，我們的28奈米利潤率將在第一季達到公司水準。

And so how do we reconcile these two?

那我們要如何協調這兩者呢？

Yes.

是的。

Well, the way to reconcile those two is 28 nanometer will only account for about 20% of our revenue in the fourth quarter this year.

那麼，協調這兩者的方法是 28 奈米，今年第四季僅占我們收入的 20% 左右。

And it will account for a little more than 20% of our revenue in the first quarter of next year.

明年第一季度，它將占我們收入的 20% 多一點。

While the 28 nanometer gross margin is climbing and will be climbing, the rest of the products' margin will drop because of lower utilization.

雖然28奈米毛利率正在攀升並將繼續攀升，但由於利用率較低，其餘產品的毛利率將下降。

Got it.

知道了。

And then my follow-up has to do with the 28 nanometer and 20 nanometer capacity for next year.

然後我的後續工作是關於明年的28奈米和20奈米產能。

How should we think about the additional 28 nanometer capacity as compared to the 20 nanometer pilot line?

與20奈米中試線相比，我們該如何看待額外的28奈米產能？

Do you have any thoughts on how aggressive you want to be, at the same time you want your customers to try out the 20 nanometer?

在希望您的客戶嘗試 20 奈米的同時，您是否有什麼想法？

And I'm just confused how those two -- how the product portfolio for those two nodes are going to converge.

我只是很困惑這兩個節點的產品組合將如何融合。

So you are asking us about the capacity plan next year for 28 nanometer as well as for 20 nanometer.

所以你問我們明年28奈米和20奈米的產能計畫。

That's right?

這是正確的？

Yes.

是的。

I will just --

我只 -

Especially as some of the 28 nanometer may move to 20 nanometer.

特別是28奈米的一些可能會遷移到20奈米。

Let me just describe our capacity plan in the following way.

讓我透過以下方式描述我們的產能計劃。

This year we will be spending between $8b and $8.5b in capital -- CapEx.

今年我們將花費 8 億至 8.5 億美元的資本——資本支出。

About $1b to $1.5b will be spent on 20 SoC, 20 nanometer.

大約 10 億美元到 1.5 億美元將花費在 20 奈米 20 SoC 上。

I think around $6b will be spent on 28 nanometers and the rest just odds and ends, including R&D.

我認為大約 60 億美元將花在 28 奈米上，其餘的只是零碎的東西，包括研發。

So this year the vast majority of the capital spending is still on 28.

所以今年絕大多數的資本支出仍集中在28上。

But 20 nanometer has already made a significant appearance in CapEx.

但 20 奈米已經在資本支出中佔據重要地位。

Next year there will still be some capital spending on 28 nanometer, but relatively small.

明年在28奈米上仍會有一些資本支出，但相對較小。

And the vast majority will be on 20 nanometer.

絕大多數將採用 20 奈米製程。

And that spending, that kind of spending, that pace of spending on 20 nanometer will continue into 2015.

20 奈米技術的這種支出、這種支出、這種支出速度將持續到 2015 年。

And then, of course, in 2015 the 16 nanometer FinFET will also be making an appearance.

當然，16 奈米 FinFET 也將在 2015 年亮相。

And, fortunately, the conversion from 20 SoC to 16 FinFET is quite good.

而且，幸運的是，從 20 個 SoC 到 16 個 FinFET 的轉換相當不錯。

In other words, we don't expect any significant loss in the conversion from 20 nanometer capacity to 16 nanometer capacity.

換句話說，我們預計從 20 奈米容量到 16 奈米容量的轉換不會出現任何重大損失。

Got it, thank you.

收到了。

All right.

好的。

So now we will switch back to the floor.

現在我們將切換回發言。

The first question goes to Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

第一個問題問德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Hi Chairman.

主席您好。

One question is would you invest in ASML EUV given that the industrial leader is going to invest in EUV and what is your view?

一個問題是，鑑於行業領先者 ASML 將投資 EUV，您是否會投資 EUV？

Which industry leader?

哪個行業的龍頭？

You know, as you mentioned before.

你知道，正如你之前提到的。

And what's your view for the competition between ASML EUV and Nikon's multiple E-beam?

您對ASML EUV與尼康多重E-beam的競爭有何看法？

Which one will become --

哪一個會成為——

I'm sorry I didn't get that.

抱歉我沒聽懂。

You were asking about ASML?

你問的是ASML嗎？

ASML.

阿斯麥。

What -- you said competition --

什麼——你說競爭——

The competition between ASML's EUV and Nikon's multiple E-beam methodology.

ASML的EUV與尼康的多重電子束方法之間的競爭。

So which one will become the industry standard going forward?

那麼哪一項將成為未來的業界標準呢？

Well, which one will become -- well, I think that the -- it appears that EUV -- let me put it another way.

好吧，哪一個將成為——好吧，我認為——看起來是 EUV——讓我換一種說法。

It appears that the E-beam, multiple E-beam is behind EUV.

看來E-beam、多重E-beam落後EUV。

But EUV progress has not been very good either.

但EUV的進展也不是很好。

Now -- but we still -- we are still going to need EUV even though the progress to date has not been very satisfying.

現在——但我們仍然——我們仍然需要 EUV，儘管迄今為止的進展並不十分令人滿意。

But if you compare it with the E-beam, I would say E-beam is certainly behind EUV.

但如果你將它與電子束進行比較，我會說電子束肯定落後於 EUV。

There's something, are you going to invest in ASML's EUV going forward, given that your competitors have moved?

有件事，考慮到你的競爭對手已經採取行動，你是否會繼續投資 ASML 的 EUV？

We are actively negotiating with ASML.

我們正在積極與ASML洽談。

And actually ASML brought up this investment R&D deal to three companies together, three industrial leaders together.

實際上，ASML 向三家公司、三個產業領導者提出了這項投資研發協議。

And now, of course, one of them decided to do it first.

當然，現在他們中的一個人決定先做這件事。

That's okay.

沒關係。

So and we are -- we have been for more than half a year now, and recently, of course, since one of our colleagues has already signed, so, of course, that got our attention again.

所以，我們已經半年多了，當然，最近，因為我們的一位同事已經簽署了，所以，當然，這再次引起了我們的注意。

So our discussions with ASML have become even more active recently.

所以最近我們和ASML的討論更加活躍。

But we are still in active negotiations with ASML.

但我們仍在與ASML進行積極談判。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question goes to Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

我們的下一個問題是問摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Hi, Dr. Chang.

你好，張醫生。

You just raised your pre-tax income CAGR from 10% to something more than 10%.

您剛剛將稅前收入複合年增長率從 10% 提高到 10% 以上。

Can you talk about what is behind that, because -- is it higher expectations now for market share?

您能談談這背後的原因嗎？

Is it the whole industry that you think is going to grow faster?

您認為整個產業的成長速度會更快嗎？

Is it profitability?

是獲利能力嗎？

What exactly is behind that more bullish outlook?

這種更樂觀的前景背後到底是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, there are two main things behind that.

嗯，這背後有兩件事。

One is that our lead in both technology and manufacturing, I believe, is strengthening, has strengthened.

一是我相信，我們在技術和製造方面的領先地位正在加強，已經加強。

Remember, starting in 2010, we didn't just increase CapEx, we also increased R&D.

請記住，從 2010 年開始，我們不僅增加了資本支出，還增加了研發。

Right now our R&D is double, double what it was in 2009.

現在我們的研發能力是 2009 年的兩倍。

So it was a two-pronged thrust.

所以這是一個雙管齊下的推動力。

Back in 2009 and 2010 the two pronged thrust was to increase both R&D and capital significantly.

早在2009年和2010年，雙管齊下的推動力就是大幅增加研發和資本。

And R&D is now double what it was in 2009.

現在的研發費用是 2009 年的兩倍。

At any rate I believe that the reason -- two things behind why we raised our pre-tax income growth goal.

無論如何，我相信我們提高稅前收入成長目標的原因有兩個。

One is that we believe that our technology lead has strengthened.

一是我們相信我們的技術領先地位已經加強。

And we have maintained our manufacturing lead which we have had all along and our customer trust lead which we have had all along.

我們保持了我們一直以來的製造領先地位和我們一直以來的客戶信任領先地位。

And the other reason, of course, is that the handheld products, the mobile products, the smartphone and the tablets, that was something that we did not completely foresee in 2010.

當然，另一個原因是手持產品、行動產品、智慧型手機和平板電腦，這是我們在 2010 年沒有完全預見的。

And in 2010 we did not foresee this mobile products market, not as clearly as we do now anyway.

2010年我們並沒有預見到這個行動產品市場，無論如何也不像現在那麼清楚。

And so those are the two reasons why we raised our goal, yes.

是的，這就是我們提高目標的兩個原因。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

My second question is more short term.

我的第二個問題是比較短期的。

You talked about this dip or inventory correction in 4Q and 1Q of next year because of the macro factors and such.

您談到了明年四季和第一季的這次下跌或庫存調整，是因為宏觀因素等原因。

That, to me, feels like last year, when the macro got a little bit worse, you saw a little bit of a -- maybe a two-quarter period where you were growing below seasonal patterns.

對我來說，感覺就像去年，當宏觀經濟變得更糟時，你看到了一點——也許有兩個季度的時間，你的成長低於季節性模式。

If you look at this year versus last year are they similar, or worse or better?

如果你看看今年與去年相比，它們是相似的，還是更糟或更好？

You're right.

你說得對。

I'd say it's very similar.

我想說這非常相似。

I think it's a very similar situation, well, with some difference.

我認為這是一個非常相似的情況，但也有一些區別。

I think the European situation was -- certainly I think this year we are worse than last year.

我認為歐洲的情況是——當然我認為今年我們比去年更糟。

And Mainland China I think last year were talking about a slowdown from 10% to 9%.

我認為去年中國大陸正在談論從 10% 放緩至 9%。

Now this year we're talking about a slowdown from 9% to maybe 7.5%.

今年我們談論的是從 9% 放緩至 7.5%。

So -- but basically it [appears] the high hopes early in the year and mainly those high hopes are based on general economic progress.

所以，但基本上，今年年初人們寄予厚望，而這些寄予厚望主要是基於總體經濟進展。

Early last year there was high hopes about world economy also and then the hope was dashed later on in the year.

去年年初，人們對世界經濟也寄予厚望，但今年晚些時候，這種希望破滅了。

And now this year, early this year there was high hope again, has been dashed now.

而今年，今年年初又曾寄予厚望，現在已經破滅了。

Yes.

是的。

And the inventories I think were working -- were based on that also.

我認為有效的庫存也是基於此。

The high hopes gave rise to the high inventories in the supply chain.

寄予厚望導致供應鏈庫存居高不下。

Everybody was -- everybody hoped -- everybody had high hopes and -- yes.

每個人都——每個人都希望——每個人都抱有很高的希望，而且——是的。

Okay.

好的。

Next question is Barclay's Andrew Lu.

下一個問題是巴克萊銀行的Andrew Lu。

Hello?

你好？

Yes, okay, Andrew.

是的，好吧，安德魯。

Can't you make his microphone louder?

你不能把他的麥克風聲音調大一點嗎？

Hello?

你好？

It's working.

它正在發揮作用。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Yes.

是的。

Dr. Chang, (technical difficulty).

張博士（技術難度）。

The first one is are we going to see a double-digit decline in any of these Q4 or Q1?

第一個是我們會看到第四季或第一季出現兩位數下降嗎？

Double-digit decline in what?

兩位數的下降意味著什麼？

Revenue.

收入。

You mean -- what time period are you talking about?

你的意思是──你說的是哪個時段？

Q4 or either Q1.

Q4 或 Q1。

A sequential double-digit decline?

連續兩位數下降？

Yes.

是的。

As I said earlier, I don't really want to predict so early.

正如我之前所說，我真的不想這麼早預測。

But right now, we are looking at something that's in the grey zone between single-digit and double-digit, okay?

但現在，我們正在關注的是個位數和兩位數之間灰色地帶的東西，好嗎？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

But, my goodness, you forced me to give you an answer.

但是，天哪，你強迫我給你答案。

And don't blame me if it turns out to be much better than that.

如果結果比這好得多，請不要怪我。

Always possible.

總是有可能的。

Second question I have, actually I did some calculation.

我的第二個問題，其實我做了一些計算。

Assuming, due to all these 28, 20, 16 FinFET investment continue, we might remain to see the CapEx to sales ratio remain at 50%.

假設，由於所有這些 28、20、16 FinFET 投資仍在繼續，我們可能仍會看到資本支出與銷售額的比率保持在 50%。

And, plus, I actually calculated the cash dividend, if we stick at $3 per share and that will take out about 15% to 16% revenue as well.

另外，我實際上計算了現金股息，如果我們堅持每股 3 美元，這也會減少約 15% 到 16% 的收入。

So total combined is about 65% revenue as a regular basis cash outflow.

因此，總收入的 65% 左右為定期現金流出。

And in our EBITDA margin, EBITDA divided by revenue is about 60%.

在我們的 EBITDA 利潤率中，EBITDA 除以收入約為 60%。

So each year we are going to have a 5% short on revenue as cash and this doesn't include that potentially we might invest ASML.

因此，每年我們的現金收入都會短缺 5%，這還不包括我們可能投資 ASML 的情況。

So what's our financing plan, through the equity and debt for the next five years based on these changes?

那麼根據這些變化，我們未來五年透過股權和債務的融資計畫是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lora, will you relieve his concern?

洛拉，你能解除他的憂慮嗎？

Andrew, there will be a few years that our free cash flow may not be good or may not be sufficient to pay the $3 dividend.

安德魯，未來幾年我們的自由現金流可能會不好，或者可能不足以支付 3 美元的股息。

But since we --

但自從我們——

You don't mean that.

你不是這個意思。

Why don't we keep the $3 dividend?

我們為什麼不保留 3 美元的股息？

Okay.

好的。

Since we have quite strong balance sheet and we have started to borrow by issuing some corporate bond starting from last year, this time [we find] interest rateis very low.

由於我們的資產負債表相當強勁，而且我們從去年開始就開始透過發行一些公司債來借款，所以這次的利率非常低。

So we were able to get 1.3%, 1.4% type of interest rate for five year or seven year.

所以我們能夠獲得五年期或七年期 1.3%、1.4% 的利率。

So we will leverage that for the period that we will have a very high capital intensity.

因此，我們將在資本密集度非常高的時期利用這一點。

And we believe, when the revenue catch up and profitability, cash flow catch up all later and we'll be in good shape.

我們相信，當收入和獲利能力、現金流都趕上時，我們就會處於良好的狀態。

So we're not too worried about that.

所以我們對此不太擔心。

So mainly out of the (multiple speakers).

所以主要是出於（多個發言者）。

Yes.

是的。

No equity raise?

沒有增資嗎？

No.

不。

No plan for equity.

沒有股權計劃。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Debt financing and actually the latest ASML deal gave me a -- made me think also.

債務融資以及實際上最新的 ASML 交易也讓我思考。

There are other novel ways, innovative ways and so on.

還有其他新奇的方式、創新的方式等等。

I'm not saying that we'll do it, but the answer to your question is debt financing, low equity, maintenance of at least $3 cash dividend and now, in addition to those definite answers, maybe there are innovations which we haven't decided on yet.

我並不是說我們會這麼做，但你問題的答案是債務融資、低股本、維持至少 3 美元的現金股息，現在，除了這些明確的答案之外，也許還有我們還沒有的創新。決定。

Next question goes to Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Good afternoon Dr. Chang.

張醫生下午好。

Two questions from me.

我有兩個問題。

First since now we are talking about the 16 nanometer FinFET, so my question is (inaudible) [15], so is 14 nanometer still on your (inaudible) road map, or after 16 maybe we will move to maybe 11 or 10?

首先，從現在開始，我們正在談論16 奈米FinFET，所以我的問題是（聽不清楚）[15]，那麼14 奈米是否仍在您的（聽不清楚）路線圖上，或者在16 奈米之後，我們可能會轉向11 或10 奈米？

10 maybe, yes.

10 也許，是的。

Is 14 still in your road map?

14 還在你的路線圖中嗎？

Pardon me?

對不起？

Is 14 nanometer still on your roadmap?

14 奈米還在您的路線圖上嗎？

14?

14？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think so, I don't think so.

我不這麼認為，我不這麼認為。

Okay.

好的。

So that means that for TSMC --

這對台積電來說意味著—

16, our 16 we believe will be competitive with other people's 14.

16，我們相信我們的16會和其他人的14有競爭力。

Understood.

明白了。

So (technical difficulty) won't have the 14.

所以（技術難度）不會有14。

So how about your EUV, (technical difficulty).

那麼你的 EUV 呢（技術難度）。

What is our --

我們的是什麼——

EUV, yes, I think that will be introduced at what kind of (technical difficulty)?

EUV，是的，我想會以什麼樣的（技術難度）推出？

I think it will be coming at 10.

我想10點就會到。

That's our 10.

那是我們的10。

And my second question actually is similar to Andrew's question.

我的第二個問題實際上與安德魯的問題類似。

I think that since given TSMC now we have heavy invest on the 28 nanometer next year 20 and going forward 16 and also we have EUV on 10.

我認為，鑑於台積電現在我們對明年 20 奈米和未來 16 奈米的 28 奈米進行了大量投資，而且我們在 10 奈米上也有 EUV。

So my question is are TSMC considering to invite your key customers to invest in TSMC, like what ASML is doing now, invest technology leader to -- invite technology leader to invest ASML?

所以我的問題是，台積電是否考慮邀請你們的關鍵客戶投資台積電，就像ASML現在所做的那樣，投資技術領導者——邀請技術領導者投資ASML？

I must clarify the careless comment I made earlier when I talked about innovative things such as -- we are not considering -- actually we've made a definite answer to Andrew's question.

我必須澄清我之前在談到創新性事物時所做的粗心評論，例如——我們沒有考慮——實際上我們已經對安德魯的問題做出了明確的回答。

We are not considering any equity offering at all.

我們根本不考慮任何股權發行。

Okay.

好的。

Not even -- we're not considering equity offering, not to a customer, not to investors, no.

甚至不——我們不考慮向客戶、不向投資者發行股票，不。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

We will now take our next question from the call.

我們現在將回答電話中的下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的下一個來電者。

The next question on the line today comes from Brett from Arete.

今天的下一個問題來自 Arete 的 Brett。

Brett, please go ahead.

布雷特，請繼續。

Yes, thanks very much.

是的，非常感謝。

I have a question for Dr. Chang around 20 nanometer.

我有一個關於20奈米的問題想問張博士。

We've seen Intel recently and several of your customers talk about concerns over the transistor cost at 20 nanometer.

我們最近看到英特爾和你們的幾位客戶談論了對 20 奈米晶體管成本的擔憂。

It's not falling like it has in previous nodes, at least that's their perspective, because of the number of process steps that are increasing at 20 nanometer.

它並沒有像以前的節點那樣下降，至少他們是這麼認為，因為 20 奈米製程步驟的數量正在增加。

I wanted to get your perspective on this and what do you think this means for the economics of the fabless business model?

我想了解您對此的看法，您認為這對無晶圓廠商業模式的經濟學意味著什麼？

To what extent, if the costs are going to be rising at 20 nanometer, can these costs be passed on up the supply chain?

如果 20 奈米的成本將上升到什麼程度，這些成本可以向上轉嫁到供應鏈上嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

20 nanometer transistor cost, basically the capital intensity has also introduced a pretty high component of depreciation cost.

20奈米電晶體成本，基本上是資本密集度，也引入了相當高的折舊成本成分。

It has raised the component depreciation cost in the advanced technologies.

提高了先進技術中的零件折舊成本。

And, now, the way we are making it up is by our -- here, of course, the FinFET does have an advantage, at least ultimately.

現在，我們的彌補方式是——當然，FinFET 確實有優勢，至少最終是這樣。

And we are going to the FinFET in 16.

我們將在 16 年轉向 FinFET。

But for 20 SoC we do have the advantage of our denser metal pitch that I talked about earlier.

但對於 20 SoC，我們確實擁有我之前談到的更密集金屬間距的優勢。

The denser metal edge resulted in smaller die.

更緻密的金屬邊緣導致晶片更小。

So even though the transistor cost might be higher, but with a smaller die, smaller chip, the economics works out very competitively.

因此，儘管晶體管成本可能更高，但由於晶片更小、晶片更小，其經濟性非常有競爭力。

That's -- it's actually a pretty involved technical calculation, but that's the conclusion.

這實際上是一個相當複雜的技術計算，但這就是結論。

The higher transistor cost, which is mainly because of the higher capital intensity, is compensated by the higher density.

較高的電晶體成本主要是由於較高的資本密集度，但可以透過較高的密度來補償。

And that's basically the answer.

這基本上就是答案。

Got it, thanks.

知道了謝謝。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

And just a follow up for Lora.

這只是洛拉的後續行動。

Lora, can you perhaps talk about the relationship between depreciation and CapEx as we go to this higher level of capital intensity, because today there seems to be a big gap between depreciation (inaudible) and CapEx versus history.

Lora，當我們達到更高水準的資本密集度時，您能否談談折舊和資本支出之間的關係，因為今天折舊（聽不清楚）和資本支出與歷史之間似乎存在很大差距。

So how do we -- how does this really trend over the next couple of years?

那麼，我們如何——未來幾年這一趨勢的真正趨勢如何？

If you can maybe just give us some help, that would be great.

如果您能給我們一些幫助，那就太好了。

The question is how would the trend be given the high capital cost what's going to be the ratio between depreciation and CapEx for the next few years.

問題是，考慮到未來幾年的高資本成本，折舊與資本支出之間的比率，這一趨勢將如何變化。

Right?

正確的？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

The ratio --

比例 -

The ratio between what?

之間的比例是多少？

The ratio between depreciation and CapEx.

折舊與資本支出之間的比率。

Well, actually every dollar of CapEx equipment, every dollar spent on equipment is depreciated over five years.

事實上，每一美元的資本支出設備、每一美元的設備支出都會在五年內貶值。

And every dollar spent on facilities is depreciated either over 10 years --

花在設施上的每一美元都會在 10 年內貶值——

10 years.

10年。

Yes, and there are some that --

是的，還有一些——

And for the building it's depreciated over 20 years.

對於這棟建築來說，它已經折舊了 20 多年。

So you have 20 year for the building, 10 year for facility, and five year for equipments.

因此，建築物有 20 年，設施有 10 年，設備有 5 年。

Well, of course, about 80% of our CapEx is on equipment I think.

當然，我認為我們大約 80% 的資本支出都花在了設備上。

Exactly.

確切地。

So you asked about the ratio between CapEx and depreciation.

所以您詢問了資本支出和折舊之間的比率。

Take 80% of the CapEx, depending on what time, what point in time in the year it's spent, and then you spread it over five years.

提取 80% 的資本支出，取決於花費的時間、一年中的哪個時間點，然後將其分攤到五年內。

That's 80% of the CapEx.

這是資本支出的 80%。

And I think, roughly, 20-year depreciation stuff is --

我認為，粗略地說，20 年折舊是——

Building.

建築。

Yes, I know.

是的，我知道。

But it's like -- it varies from year to year.

但這就像——每年都有所不同。

This year and next year we're actually building quite a few buildings.

今年和明年我們實際上正在建造相當多的建築物。

So there is a greater component in our CapEx that's going to be depreciated over 20 years.

因此，我們的資本支出中有很大一部分將在 20 年內折舊。

I think your question is more to that.

我認為你的問題更多於此。

I can give you one example for this year.

我可以舉一個今年的例子給你聽。

You're asking the relationship between depreciation and CapEx, for example this year we were planning to spend $8b to $8.5b and with the depreciation about a little bit more than $4b.

你問的是折舊和資本支出之間的關係，例如今年我們計劃花費 80 億美元到 8.5 億美元，而折舊大約略高於 40 億美元。

So there's some relationship between the two.

所以兩者之間是有一定關係的。

But going forward actually it will depend on when you spend the depreciation, when you spend the money, which quarter, on what technology.

但實際上，未來這將取決於你何時花掉折舊，何時花這筆錢，哪個季度，花在什麼技術上。

And we also have some (inaudible) coming down from depreciation.

我們還有一些（聽不清楚）來自折舊的損失。

So every year the number's different.

所以每年的數字都不一樣。

So it's very difficult to answer, to give a very simple answer for your question,

所以很難回答，要為你的問題給出一個非常簡單的答案，

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

So we will continue to take our next question from the call.

因此，我們將繼續回答電話中的下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

The next question comes from Mahesh Sanganeria from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Mahesh Sanganeria。

Mahesh, please go ahead.

馬赫什，請繼續。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Dr. Chang, I have a question on the 15 nanometer.

張博士，我有一個關於 15 奈米的問題。

What is your confidence that you can accomplish that without EUV?

您對無需 EUV 就能實現這一目標的信心有多大？

And also, related to that, if ASML supplies a [stable] machine, how long will it take for you to put it in production?

另外，與此相關的是，如果 ASML 提供[穩定]機器，你們需要多長時間才能投入生產？

I'm pretty sure you have plenty of your problems to solve like with the radical and [the zest] and the [lineage] (inaudible), so how long will it take to solve those problems, to put it in production.

我很確定你有很多問題需要解決，例如激進的、[熱情]和[血統]（聽不清楚），那麼解決這些問題、將其投入生產需要多長時間。

Will you repeat the question?

你會重複這個問題嗎？

Mahesh?

馬赫什？

Your question is if we start with -- you said 15 nanometer but I suppose you are referring to 10 nanometer because that's when we will start using the EUV.

你的問題是，我們是否從——你說的是 15 奈米，但我想你指的是 10 奈米，因為那時我們將開始使用 EUV。

So --

所以 -

No.

不。

I think his question was how confident are we that we can accomplish the 16 nanometer without EUV.

我認為他的問題是我們對在沒有 EUV 的情況下實現 16 奈米技術有多大信心。

Okay.

好的。

Isn't that right?

是不是這樣？

Yes.

是的。

Without --

沒有 -

Yes.

是的。

Well, the answer is yes.

嗯，答案是肯定的。

We are quite confident, we are very confident we can accomplish the 16 FinFET without EUV.

我們非常有信心，非常有信心我們可以在沒有EUV的情況下完成16 FinFET。

Now it's the second question that I didn't completely get.

現在是我沒有完全明白的第二個問題。

He talked about the radicals and all that.

他談到了激進分子等等。

So you said that if we get a machine from ASML on the EUV, how soon will we begin the production?

那您說如果我們從ASML取得一台EUV機器，我們多久開始生產？

How soon will we be able to put the machine into production?

我們多久才能將機器投入生產？

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

That is correct because I assume that there are multiple problems to solve, once the machine is there also in the fab.

這是正確的，因為我認為一旦機器也進入工廠，就有多個問題需要解決。

So how many years it will take to put it in production.

那麼需要多少年才能投入生產。

How -- after we get a machine, a EUV machine, how soon -- how long will it take to get it to production, is that the question?

在我們得到一台機器、一台 EUV 機器之後，如何——多久才能將其投入生產，這就是問題所在嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, we have had one machine for a year already.

嗯，我們已經擁有一台機器一年了。

And I don't -- I can't tell when we will be using it in production yet.

我不知道——我還不知道我們什麼時候會在生產中使用它。

I think that -- actually the fact of the matter is that by the time we use an EUV machine, which I think is in our 10 nanometer generation, I think by that time this machine that we have had for a year will be obsolete and we'll be getting new machines.

我認為——實際上，事實是，當我們使用 EUV 機器時，我認為這是我們的 10 奈米世代，我認為到那時我們已經使用了一年的機器將會過時，並且我們將獲得新機器。

And as to how long it will take to get a new machine, well I -- that is a -- you can't tell that.

至於要獲得一台新機器需要多長時間，我——那是——你不能說。

I will tell you about the immersion machines which -- we've been using immersion machines for years.

我將向您介紹浸入式機器，我們多年來一直在使用浸入式機器。

And sometimes it doesn't take very long, sometimes it takes several months or half a year.

而且有時不需要很長時間，有時需要幾個月或半年。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

And just one more follow up on.

還有一個後續。

Can you give us an -- your estimate of where your competitors are on 28 nanometer production?

您能否給我們一個您對競爭對手在 28 奈米生產方面的估計？

There's a lot of rumors about, but I do not believe most of those rumors.

有很多謠言，但我不相信大部分謠言。

I really haven't seen anything real yet.

我真的還沒有看到任何真實的東西。

Well, I've seen very, very little real yet.

嗯，我見過的真實情況還非常非常少。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Now we will switch back to the floor.

現在我們將切換回會場。

The next question goes to HSBC Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題向匯豐銀行史蒂文‧佩拉約提出。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very impressive performance on your industrial business, up nearly 40% quarter on quarter, 22% of revenues.

您的工業業務表現非常出色，季增近 40%，營收成長 22%。

That's now bigger than your computing segment.

現在它比你的計算領域還要大。

That growth rate is actually bigger than your 40 nanometer and below.

這個成長率其實比你的40奈米及以下的還要大。

So I want to understand the outlook for this business.

所以我想了解這個業務的前景。

Is this sustainable?

這是可持續的嗎？

Is this a step function higher and now sustainable?

這是一個更高的階躍函數並且現在可以持續嗎？

What are you thinking of for that industrial line?

您對該工業生產線有何想法？

A pretty large part of it goes into smartphones and tablets.

其中很大一部分用於智慧型手機和平板電腦。

And so we believe in the growth of those.

所以我們相信這些的成長。

Lora, you mentioned already -- you told everybody touch control and all that stuff.

洛拉，你已經提到過——你告訴每個人觸摸控制和所有這些東西。

And --

和 -

Those MCU, data converter, flash controller, touch controller, those type of things.

那些MCU、資料轉換器、快閃記憶體控制器、觸控控制器，諸如此類的東西。

Voltage, yes.

電壓，是的。

Power.

力量。

Power, yes.

權力，是的。

And power.

還有權力。

But I guess the question is these are new businesses for you, so there should be a level of sustainability to them.

但我想問題是這些對你來說是新業務，所以它們應該有一定程度的可持續性。

Or is this still a cyclical thing and they're going to fall off as well?

或者這仍然是一個週期性的事情並且它們也會脫落？

Well, but I thought I was answering that question.

好吧，但我以為我正在回答這個問題。

Mobile products are sustainable aren't they?

行動產品是永續的，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

And then just maybe one more follow up on the competitive landscape --

然後也許只是對競爭格局的進一步追蹤——

Is it cyclical.

是否有周期性。

I think everything is cyclical.

我認為一切都是循環的。

Sure.

當然。

Except maybe bread and rice.

除了麵包和米飯。

And if I could just follow up on the competitive landscape.

如果我能跟進競爭格局就好了。

We heard just this morning from Qualcomm that they're going to qualify more competitors.

今天早上我們剛從高通公司獲悉，他們將授予更多競爭對手資格。

You talked about how you've raised your guidance for pre-tax profit.

您談到如何提高稅前利潤指引。

You were surprised at the strength of smartphones and tablets.

您對智慧型手機和平板電腦的強度感到驚訝。

And so those customers are also looking for alternatives as well.

因此，這些客戶也在尋找替代方案。

The last question was really just specific to 28 nanometer, but I want to ask you, in general, the competitive landscape, do you feel that it is becoming more intense and now you need to be much more aggressive in pushing 20 and 16 nanometer?

最後一個問題其實只是針對28奈米，但我想問一下，總的來說，競爭格局，你是否覺得競爭變得更加激烈，現在你需要更加積極地推動20和16奈米？

Or do you think the competitive landscape is more of the same?

還是您認為競爭格局更相似？

Well, competitive landscape has changed because competitors have changed.

嗯，競爭格局已經改變，因為競爭對手已經改變。

Three years ago, two years ago -- well, three years ago, anyway when you talk about competitive landscape you and I will both think of UMC etc with, at that time, Global Foundry emerging.

三年前，兩年前——好吧，三年前，無論如何，當你談論競爭格局時，你和我都會想到聯華電子等，當時格羅方德正在興起。

And now you ask me what the competitive landscape is.

現在你問我競爭格局是什麼。

Competitive landscape is Intel, Samsung, Global Foundry, UMC.

競爭格局為Intel、三星、Global Foundry、UMC。

And now -- two or three years ago Global foundry and UMC were almost the two only ones.

而現在——兩三年前，Global Foundry 和 UMC 幾乎是僅有的兩家。

And now they are the two less important ones.

現在它們是兩個不太重要的。

So, all right, you asked me what the competitive landscape is.

那麼，好吧，你問我競爭格局是什麼。

I really think that you know the answer.

我真的認為你知道答案。

I actually read the same thing that you do.

我實際上讀到了和你一樣的東西。

Maybe you read even more than I do.

也許你讀的比我還多。

The last thing I was reading was -- I haven't finished reading it yet -- was Intel's call, the transcript.

我讀到的最後一件事是──我還沒讀完──是英特爾的電話會議記錄。

I read all those transcripts.

我讀了所有這些文字記錄。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

So I think it's very, very -- it's a very competitive environment.

所以我認為這是一個非常非常競爭的環境。

Very, very competitive.

非常非常有競爭力。

So it's our competitors have changed and they are even more powerful and more intimidating than our old competitors.

所以我們的競爭對手已經發生了變化，他們比我們原來的競爭對手更強大、更令人生畏。

Not that we are intimidated, okay?

並不是說我們被嚇倒了，好嗎？

All right.

好的。

So for the interest of time I'm just going to allow one last questions from the floor and that's Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

因此，為了節省時間，我將允許與會者提出最後一個問題，這是瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

In the prepared remarks you mentioned you're taking preparations for the dip.

在準備好的評論中，您提到您正在為下降做準備。

Could you talk about some of those preparations, if it's any change in spending or plans?

您能談談其中的一些準備工作嗎？

Preparations for the debt?

還債的準備工作？

Dip.

蘸。

For the dip, the fourth quarter dip you said you're taking some preparations.

對於下跌，第四季的下跌，你說你正在做一些準備。

Good.

好的。

For the dip?

為了浸泡？

Preparations, well, we have already had two rounds of cost reduction in the last two months.

準備工作呢,我們這兩個月已經有兩輪的降本了。

The first round was I initiated a -- and I made it the responsibility of every fab manager and every functional manager of the Company.

第一輪是我發起的──我讓公司的每個晶圓廠經理和每個職能經理都有責任。

And that again was, I guess, about 30 or 40 of them and each of them had a unit as for cost reduction.

我猜大約有 30 或 40 家這樣的公司，每家公司都有一個降低成本的單位。

And the results were compiled and it was a pretty significant round.

結果已經匯總，這是一個非常重要的回合。

But just two weeks ago I called for another round of cost reduction.

但就在兩週前，我呼籲進行另一輪成本削減。

Clearly our objective is to keep the gross margin and operating profit margin up as high as possible.

顯然，我們的目標是保持盡可能高的毛利率和營業利潤率。

So yes, so preparations meant rounds of cost reduction, cost and expense reduction, COGS and operating expenses reduction, yes.

所以，是的，所以準備工作意味著多輪成本降低、成本和費用降低、銷貨成本和營運費用降低，是的。

A follow-up question on the gross margin guidance.

關於毛利率指引的後續問題。

You guided for a small decline in third quarter on rising sales.

您預計第三季銷售額將小幅下降。

If you could maybe talk about the factors in the margin decline.

您可以談談利潤下降的因素嗎？

And maybe from these cost reductions what the -- how we should think about OpEx growth in the next few quarters.

也許從這些成本降低我們應該如何考慮未來幾季的營運支出成長。

Lora, would you?

洛拉，你願意嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Randy, if you look at our capacity by quarters, actually third quarter our capacity will go up by about 5%.

Randy，如果你按季度查看我們的產能，實際上第三季我們的產能將成長約 5%。

So that's mainly the -- for 28 nanometer of course.

當然，這主要是 28 奈米。

So that's the main reason for this 7% growing revenue, but not as high as the bottom-line gross margin.

所以這是營收成長 7% 的主要原因，但沒有達到底線毛利率那麼高。

But I believe that's temporary.

但我相信這只是暫時的。

When we ramp the 28 to a bigger scale, and with the improvement of profitability, I think this issue can be resolved.

當我們把28擴大到更大的規模，隨著獲利能力的提高，我認為這個問題是可以解決的。

Okay.

好的。

I think we are about to wrap up for today's conference and conference call.

我想我們今天的會議和電話會議即將結束。

And, before we conclude, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible three hours from now.

並且，在我們結束之前，請注意，從現在起三小時後即可重播會議。

Transcript will be available within 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

文字記錄將於即日起 24 小時內提供，均可透過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day

再見，祝你有美好的一天