台積電 ADR (TSM) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2012 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2012 年第四季財報會議和電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

The event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call your dialing lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥接線路將處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2012, followed by our guidance for the first quarter 2013.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們第四季和 2012 年全年的營運情況，然後是我們對 2013 年第一季的指導。

Afterwards TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang, will provide his general remarks and a couple of key messages.

隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表一般性演講和一些關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for your participation today.

感謝您今天的參與。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of 2012 financial performance, followed by the guidance for the first quarter.

我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和 2012 年財務表現回顧開始，然後是第一季的指導。

In the fourth quarter, despite inventory crashing in the IC supply chain, demand for our products was higher than we expected three months ago, resulting in above-guidance revenue and a profit margins.

第四季度，儘管IC供應鏈庫存大幅下降，但我們產品的需求高於三個月前的預期，導致收入和利潤率高於指導值。

On a sequential basis our fourth-quarter revenue decreased 7% to TWD131b.

第四季營收季減 7%，至 131b 新台幣。

Gross margin was 47.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the third quarter.

毛利率為47.2%，較第三季下降1.6個百分點。

This is mainly due to lower capacity utilization while cost improvements and a favorable inventory evaluation adjustment offset some of the decline.

這主要是由於產能利用率下降，而成本改善和有利的庫存評估調整抵消了部分下降。

Operating margin was 35.2%, down 2 percentage points from the third quarter.

營業利益率為35.2%，較第三季下降2個百分點。

Operating expense as a percent of revenue increased 0.4 percentage points on a smaller revenue base.

由於收入基礎較小，營運費用佔收入的百分比增加了 0.4 個百分點。

Non-operating items were small losses of TWD7m (sic - see presentation "TWD0.01b") in the fourth quarter and as we recorded an impairment charge for certain invested companies.

第四季度非經營項目出現 700 萬新台幣的小額虧損（原文如此 - 參見簡報「TWD0.01b」），因為我們為某些被投資公司記錄了減損費用。

Overall, our fourth-quarter EPS was TWD1.61, ROE was 23.8%.

整體而言，我們第四季 EPS 為新台幣 1.61，ROE 為 23.8%。

In terms of revenue by application, as I just mentioned, inventory correction in the IC supply chain has affected overall demand for TSMC's wafer.

從應用營收來看，如我剛才所提到的，IC供應鏈的庫存調整影響了台積電晶圓的整體需求。

However, demand for mobile computing devices remained firm, making communication the only growing segment in the fourth quarter, while demand for computer, consumer and industrial-related product all declined by double digits.

然而，對行動運算設備的需求依然堅挺，使通訊成為第四季唯一成長的領域，而對電腦、消費和工業相關產品的需求均出現兩位數下降。

As a result, revenue contribution from communication-related applications further increased from 49% in the third quarter to 54% in the fourth quarter.

由此，通訊相關應用的營收貢獻從第三季的49%進一步上升至第四季的54%。

On a full-year basis, communication increased 23% and represented 50% of our revenue -- wafer revenue.

全年來看，通訊業務成長了 23%，占我們收入（晶圓收入）的 50%。

The major contributing segment includes application processor, baseband, CMOS image sensor and wireless LAN, reflecting the strong demand for mobile computing devices.

主要貢獻領域包括應用處理器、基頻、CMOS影像感測器和無線區域網，反映了對行動運算設備的強勁需求。

Another fast-growing application is Industrial & Standard, which grew 42% year over year.

另一個快速成長的應用是工業和標準，較去年同期成長 42%。

The growth was mainly contributed by the increasing usage of power IC, data converter, touch controller and Flash controller within mobile devices.

這一增長主要得益於行動裝置中電源IC、資料轉換器、觸控控制器和快閃記憶體控制器的使用不斷增加。

This also reflected our success in developing specialty technology businesses.

這也反映了我們在發展專業技術業務方面的成功。

If we look at the revenue by technology, thanks to customer's strong demand for TSMC's 28-nanometer technology and the excellent execution by the operation team, revenue contribution from this node jumped from 13% in the prior quarter to 22% in the fourth quarter.

如果從技術層面來看，得益於客戶對台積電28奈米技術的強勁需求以及營運團隊的出色執行，該節點的收入貢獻從上季度的13%躍升至第四季度的22%。

We see 28-nanometer as a very successful node for TSMC, which already accounts for [12%] of our full-year revenue in 2012.

我們認為 28 奈米是台積電非常成功的節點，它已經占我們 2012 年全年收入的 [12%]。

Looking forward, we remain confident 28 revenue contribution will exceed 30% for the whole year in 2013 and margin will be at corporate level starting from this quarter.

展望未來，我們仍有信心 28 2013 年全年營收貢獻將超過 30%，從本季開始，利潤率將達到公司水準。

Taking a look at the balance sheet, on the asset side, cash and marketable securities ended the quarter at TWD151b, slightly increased from last quarter.

從資產負債表來看，資產方面，本季末現金及有價證券為新台幣151b，較上季略有增加。

Long-term investment increased to TWD66b, mainly due to the TWD31.5b investment in ASML shares.

長期投資增加至TWD66b，主要是由於TWD31.5b投資於ASML股票。

This strategic investment will be recognized as available for sale in our balance sheet.

這項策略投資將在我們的資產負債表中確認為可供出售。

On the liability side, current liability increased TWD23b, mainly due to increase in payables to contractors and equipment suppliers as well as increase in short-term loans for hedging purpose.

負債方面，流動負債增加TWD23b，主要是由於應付承包商和設備供應商的款項增加以及出於對沖目的的短期貸款增加。

Long-term debt increased by TWD4.4b to TWD82b as we issued more corporate bonds in the fourth quarter.

由於我們在第四季度發行了更多公司債券，長期債務增加了 TWD4.4b 至 TWD82b。

Our days of inventory increased by six days to 50 days, mainly due to higher working process for 28-nanometer product in response to a strong market demand and an increase of raw material.

我們的庫存天數增加了六天至50天，主要是由於28奈米產品因強勁的市場需求而提高了加工製程以及原材料的增加。

On the cash flow side we generated TWD85b from operations in the fourth quarter and invested TWD60b in capital expenditure.

在現金流方面，我們第四季度的營運產生了 85b 新台幣，並將 60b 新台幣投資於資本支出。

Overall our cash balance increased TWD5b to TWD143b at the end of the fourth quarter.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額在第四季度末增加了新台幣 5b 至新台幣 143b。

Due to higher operating cash flow and the lower capital expenditure, free cash flow improved from negative TWD2b in the third quarter to positive TWD26b in the fourth quarter.

由於營運現金流增加和資本支出減少，自由現金流從第三季的負 TWD2b 改善到第四季的正 TWD26b。

Now let's take a look at the capital expenditure.

現在讓我們來看看資本支出。

We spent $2b on capital expenditure in the fourth quarter.

第四季我們在資本支出上花了 20 億美元。

As a result full-year CapEx ended at $8.3b, in line with our prior guidance.

結果，全年資本支出為 8.3b 美元，與我們先前的指導一致。

Let me make some comments on our capacity plan.

讓我對我們的產能計劃發表一些評論。

As we continued adding capacity for 28-nanometer process technology, our total capacity increased 4% to around 4m 8-inch equivalent wafers in the fourth quarter.

隨著我們持續增加28奈米製程技術的產能，第四季我們的總產能增加了4%，達到約400萬片8吋等效晶圓。

For the full year our 12-inch capacity had increased by 21% and the total annual capacity increased by 14% to reach about 15m wafers.

全年12吋產能成長21%，年總產能成長14%，達到約1500萬片晶圓。

We expect the total capacity to continue to increase -- to decrease slightly by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2013 due to fewer working days and a scheduled maintenance.

我們預計總產能將繼續增加，但由於工作日減少和定期維護，2013 年第一季總產能將小幅下降 1.2%。

Now I would like to give you a recap of our performance in the year of 2012.

現在我向大家回顧一下我們2012年的工作狀況。

2012 is a record year for TSMC.

2012年對台積電來說是創紀錄的一年。

Our strength in technology and manufacturing made us well positioned in the mobile computing market.

我們在技術和製造方面的實力使我們在行動運算市場佔據有利地位。

We are happy to mark the year with record sales and profitability despite difficult macroeconomic environment.

儘管宏觀經濟環境困難，但我們很高興以創紀錄的銷售額和盈利能力來慶祝這一年。

Compared with 2011, our revenue increased 18.5% year over year to reach TWD506b.

與2011年相比，我們的營收年增18.5%，達到新台幣506b。

We continue to outperform the semiconductor and foundry industries.

我們的表現持續優於半導體和代工產業。

As for profitability, although the rising depreciation and fast ramp of 28-nanometer have indeed put pressure on our gross margin, nevertheless our gross margin has increased to 48%, a 2.7-percentage-point increase from 2011 thanks to higher utilization of the capacity we invested in.

從獲利能力來看，雖然折舊率上升和28奈米的快速爬坡確實給我們的毛利率帶來了壓力，但由於產能利用率的提高，我們的毛利率已經提高到48%，比2011年提高了2.7個百分點我們投資於.

Earnings per share increased 23.8% to TWD6.41.

每股獲利增加23.8%至新台幣6.41元。

And ROE for the whole year was 24.6% compared to the 22.3% in 2011.

全年淨資產收益率為24.6%，而2011年為22.3%。

Before I dive in the first-quarter guidance, I would like to brief you about the changes in our effective tax rate in 2013.

在深入介紹第一季指導之前，我想向您簡要介紹 2013 年有效稅率的變化。

TSMC's tax rate is projected to be 14% in year 2013, which is significantly higher than 8.7% in 2012.

台積電2013年的稅率預計為14%，明顯高於2012年的8.7%。

The higher tax rates are due to the following reasons.

較高的稅率是由於以下原因。

First, the introduction of capital gain tax in Taiwan, coupled with the increase of the AMT rate from 10% to 12% will cause our effective tax rate to increase by 2 percentage points.

首先，台灣開徵資本利得稅，加上AMT稅率從10%提高到12%，將導致我們的有效稅率增加2個百分點。

Second, higher tax penalty on appropriated retained earnings as we are making more net income by keeping the same dividend.

其次，對分配的留存收益徵收更高的稅收罰款，因為我們透過維持相同的股息來賺取更多的淨利潤。

This will add 1.7 percentage points to our effective tax rate.

這將使我們的有效稅率增加 1.7 個百分點。

Third, a 0.9-percentage-point increase caused by an expiration of certain tax exemptions.

第三，由於某些免稅政策到期而導致的成長0.9個百分點。

Lastly, the 0.7 percentage points is attributed to the absence of certain subsidiaries' loss carry-forward.

最後，0.7 個百分點是因為沒有某些子公司的虧損結轉。

Under the current tax environment we expect the tax rate for 2013 and 2014 will be around 14%.

在目前的稅收環境下，我們預計2013年和2014年的稅率將在14%左右。

I have finished my financial report.

我已經完成了我的財務報告。

Now let me provide you our first-quarter guidance.

現在讓我向您提供我們的第一季指引。

Based on our current business expectation and forecast, foreign exchange rate of TWD28.90, we expect our revenue to be between TWD127b and TWD129b.

根據我們目前的業務預期和預測，匯率為新台幣28.90，我們預計我們的收入將在新台幣127b至新台幣129b之間。

In terms of margins, we expect the first-quarter gross margin to be between 43.5% and 45.5% and operating margin to be between 31.5% and 33.5%.

利潤率方面，我們預期第一季毛利率在43.5%至45.5%之間，營業利益率介於31.5%至33.5%之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to our chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang.

讓我請主席兼執行長張忠謀博士發言。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

I'll make a few comments on last year's achievements, on this year as a whole and specifically on the first quarter.

我將對去年的成績、今年的整體成績、特別是第一季的成績發表一些評論。

And I will also comment on 28-nanometer technology and on 20-nanometer and the 16 FinFET, and then finally on CapEx -- this year's CapEx.

我還將評論 28 奈米技術、20 奈米和 16 FinFET，最後是資本支出——今年的資本支出。

Lora has already reported the financials of last year to you basically.

Lora已經基本向大家報告了去年的財務狀況。

Last year was a year of achievements for us.

去年是我們取得成績的一年。

Revenue grew 18% to reach $17.1b and the EPS grew 24% to reach TWD6.41 per share.

營收成長 18%，達到 17.1b 美元，每股收益成長 24%，達到每股 TWD6.41。

28-nanometer technology was a resounding success.

28 奈米技術取得了巨大成功。

The production in 2012 increased more than 30-fold over 2011.

2012年的產量比2011年增加了30倍以上。

And we have enjoyed throughout the year, in spite of a lot of attempts of the competition, we've enjoyed throughout the year close to 100% foundry market share in 28-nanometer technology.

我們全年都享受到，儘管競爭者進行了許多嘗試，我們全年在28奈米技術上享受到接近100%的代工市場份額。

We have also in the year 2012 further strengthened our R&D.

2012年我們也進一步加強了研發力道。

Our R&D expenditure increased from TWD33.8b in 2011 to TWD40.4b in 2012.

研發支出從2011年的TWD33.8b增加到2012年的TWD40.4b。

Our R&D people increased from 3,400 at the end of 2011 to 3,900 at the end of '12.

我們的研發人員從2011年底的3,400人增加到12年底的3,900人。

Now a few words on 2013 and the first quarter of 2013.

現在簡單介紹一下 2013 年和 2013 年第一季。

For the full year 2013 we are forecasting a global GDP growth of 2.6%, which is a bit higher than last year's global GDP growth for 2.4%.

我們預期 2013 年全年全球 GDP 成長率為 2.6%，略高於去年全球 GDP 成長率 2.4%。

Now we are forecasting 2.6% for next year -- I'm sorry, this year.

現在我們預測明年的成長率為 2.6%——對不起，是今年。

We are forecasting a world [SC] market growth of 3%.

我們預測全球 [SC] 市場成長率為 3%。

We are forecasting a fabulous, fabulous Company growth of 9%.

我們預測公司將實現 9% 的驚人成長。

We are forecasting a foundry industry growth of 7%.

我們預計代工行業將成長 7%。

And we are forecasting a TSMC revenue growth much higher than 7%.

我們預計台積電的營收成長將遠高於 7%。

So those are our forecasts for the full year 2013.

以上就是我們對 2013 年全年的預測。

For our first quarter 2013, I have some comments on supply chain inventory to make.

對於 2013 年第一季度，我有一些關於供應鏈庫存的評論。

Three months ago, in the last investors' conference in October, we expected the supply chain inventory to decline from 7 days above seasonal in the fourth quarter to 1 day below seasonal in the first quarter.

三個月前，在10月的最後一次投資者會議上，我們預計供應鏈庫存將從第四季比季節性高7天下降到第一季比季節性低1天。

That was our expectation three months ago, that the supply chain inventory would decline from 7 days above seasonal in the fourth quarter to 1 day below seasonal in the first quarter, all together an 8-day decline.

這是我們三個月前的預期，供應鏈庫存將從第四季高於季節性的 7 天下降到第一季低於季節性的 1 天，總共下降了 8 天。

Now, because many mobile product manufacturers have accelerated their new product launch this year, instead of late in the year they have now pulled ahead to earlier in the year, and therefore they need IC supplies, IC inventories earlier.

現在，由於許多行動產品製造商今年都加快了新產品的推出，而不是年底，所以他們提前到了年初，因此他們需要更早的IC供應、IC庫存。

So the supply chain inventory now is forecast to decline only slightly from fourth quarter to first quarter.

因此，目前預計供應鏈庫存從第四季到第一季僅略有下降。

Instead of 7 days above normal to 1 day below normal, we are now forecasting that the inventory will decline from 6 days above seasonal, well, instead of 7 days.

我們現在預測庫存將從高於正常水準 7 天到低於正常水準 1 天，而不是高於季節性 6 天，而不是 7 天。

Three months ago we thought it was -- the inventory was going to be 7 days above seasonal.

三個月前，我們認為庫存將比季節性高 7 天。

Now we have better information and we think it's 6 days above seasonal in the fourth quarter.

現在我們有了更好的信息，我們認為第四季度比季節性多了 6 天。

But the big change is that we are forecasting it to decline to only four days above seasonal in the first quarter, which is only a 2-day -- equivalent 2-day decline instead of the 8-day decline that we had forecasted three months ago.

但最大的變化是，我們預測第一季的季節性下降幅度僅為 4 天，這只是 2 天——相當於 2 天的下降，而不是我們預測的三個月的 8 天下降。

All this resulted in a higher first quarter than we thought three months ago.

所有這些導致第一季的業績高於我們三個月前的預期。

So now we expect the first-quarter revenue to decline rather than -- three months ago we expected it to decline, the revenue, we expected it to decline from the fourth quarter.

因此，現在我們預計第一季的營收將下降，而不是三個月前我們預計它會下降，我們預計第四季的營收將會下降。

We now expect the first-quarter revenue to be essentially flat in US dollars from the fourth quarter -- essentially flat from the fourth quarter in US dollars.

我們現在預計第一季的營收（以美元計算）將與第四季基本持平——以美元計算，與第四季基本持平。

A few more words on 28-nanometer technology.

關於 28 奈米技術的更多資訊。

After accomplishing a 30-fold increase in production, 28-nanometer capacity and output continued to ramp up aggressively this year.

在實現產量成長30倍之後，28奈米產能和產量今年持續大幅提升。

Production of 28-nanometer wafers in 2013 will triple that of 2012.

2013年28奈米晶圓產量將是2012年的三倍。

I think the newcomers may ask do we have customers.

我想新來的人可能會問我們有客戶嗎？

The old customers I think know us well enough not to ask that.

我想老顧客很了解我們，不會問這個。

Yes, we have customers.

是的，我們有客戶。

High-K metal gate will surpass oxynitride, that's in the 28-nanometer.

在 28 奈米製程中，高 K 金屬閘極將超越氮氧化物。

We have, as you know, actually four types; three of those are high-K metal gate and the earliest type that we introduced was the oxynitride.

如您所知，我們實際上有四種類型：其中三個是高 K 金屬閘極，我們最早引入的類型是氮氧化物。

And indeed, last year the majority of the production was the oxynitride.

事實上，去年的大部分產量都是氮氧化物。

But the more advanced version, high-K metal gate, will surpass oxynitride in the third quarter this year.

但更先進的版本，高K金屬閘極，將在今年第三季超越氮氧化物。

And in the fourth quarter it will even surpass oxynitride even more.

而到了第四季度，它甚至會進一步超越氮氧化物。

Gross margin percentage of 28-nanometer in 1Q '13, which is this quarter, will be slightly higher than corporate average and is expected to remain so in 2013.

13 年第 1 季（即本季）28 奈米的毛利率將略高於企業平均水平，預計 2013 年將維持這一水平。

This is neither dragging the corporate average down, nor is it pulling it up.

這既不會拖累企業平均水平，也不會拉高企業平均水平。

Now a few words on 20-nanometer and 16 FinFET.

現在簡單介紹一下 20 奈米和 16 FinFET。

Both technologies are in progress in R&D.

兩項技術均處於研發階段。

Both represent state-of-the-art, leading-edge-type technology, not just in foundry but in the whole SC industry.

兩者都代表了最先進的前沿技術，不僅在代工廠，而且在整個 SC 行業。

And enough discussions have taken place with enough customers with large requirements to lead us to believe that in both its first and second year of production, in both the first and second year of production of 20SoC, and the first year will be next year, 2014.

並且與足夠多具有大量需求的客戶進行了足夠的討論，使我們相信在其生產的第一年和第二年，在20SoC生產的第一年和第二年，第一年將是明年，2014年。

Second year will be the year after that, 2015.

第二年是後年，即 2015 年。

In both those years of 20SoC production, the volume of 20SoC will be larger than 28-nanometer in its first and second year of production, which were last year and this year.

在20SoC量產的這兩年中，20SoC量產的第一年和第二年（去年和今年）的體積都將大於28奈米。

That's a long sentence, but let me repeat it in slightly different words.

這是一個很長的句子，但讓我用稍微不同的字重複一下。

We think that our volume of 20SoC next year, 2014, will be greater than the volume of 28-nanometer last year.

我們認為明年2014年我們20SoC的出貨量會比去年28奈米的出貨量更大。

And we think the volume of 20SoC in 2015 will be greater than the volume of 28-nanometer this year.

我們認為2015年20SoC的體積將大於今年28奈米的體積。

Our CapEx plan is therefore in accordance with that belief.

因此，我們的資本支出計劃符合這一信念。

So a few more words about CapEx.

關於資本支出再多說幾句。

This year it will be about $9b, give or take a few hundred million, $9b.

今年大約是 9b 美元，或多或少有幾億美元，9b 美元。

88% of it will be for 28-nanometer, 20-nanometer, 16-nanometer building facility equipment.

其中88%將用於28奈米、20奈米、16奈米建築設施設備。

But basically 88% will be for 28, 20, 16, everything.

但基本上 88% 的人會選擇 28、20、16 歲等等。

Building -- we are building new buildings now in fact.

建築——事實上我們現在正在建造新建築。

Facility -- or we have been building new buildings for quite a while, facilities and equipment.

設施——或者說我們已經建造新建築一段時間了，設施和設備。

5% will be for R&D equipment; that's basically 10-nanometer and beyond and [CoWoS] and whatever.

5%用於研發設備；這基本上是 10 奈米及以上以及 [CoWoS] 等等。

2% for specialty technology equipment; that is [CoWoS], embedded Flash, microcontroller, imaging and so on.

專業技術設備2%；也就是【CoWoS】、嵌入式Flash、微控制器、成像等。

2% of capital.

資本的2%。

And 1% is for the piece of land that we just acquired in Zhunan.

1%是我們剛在竹南徵得的那塊地。

I think I told you about it last time, did I not?

我想我上次已經告訴過你了，不是嗎？

I think I told the conference about it.

我想我已經向會議講述了這件事。

We bought a piece of land in Zhunan, which is about, I understand, 15 or 20 minutes' driving from our Hsinchu headquarters.

我們在竹南買了一塊地，據我了解，距離我們新竹總部大約15、20分鐘車程。

So those are the comments that I have prepared.

這些是我準備的評論。

All right, this concludes our prepared statements.

好的，我們準備好的發言就到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家，一次將問題限制在兩個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken from both -- both from the floor and from the call.

雙方都會提出問題——無論是在會場還是在電話會議上。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our CEO or CFO answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的執行長或財務長回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask the question, please press the star then one on our telephone keypad now, star then one.

通話中的各位，如果您想提出問題，請立即按我們電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按一個，再按一個星號，然後按一個。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press the pound or the hash key.

如果您隨時想將自己從提問佇列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now, let's begin the Q&A session.

現在，我們開始問答環節。

First question goes to Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou -- comes from Michael.

第一個問題問德意志銀行，麥可‧週－來自麥可。

Hi, Chairman.

主席您好。

Could you give some update for your LED and solar business?

您能否介紹一下您的 LED 和太陽能業務的最新情況？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

LED, on both LED and solar our strategy is, first, to achieve a technological distinction, either better performance than competitors, than current competitors, or better cost than current competitors.

LED，無論是LED還是太陽能，我們的策略首先是實現技術差異，要么比競爭對手更好的性能，比當前競爭對手更好，要么比當前競爭對手更好的成本。

Anyway, a technological distinction before we start large-scale production, before we put a lot of capital money into, etc.

不管怎樣，在我們開始大規模生產之前，在我們投入大量資金之前，等等，技術上的差異。

That's the philosophy.

這就是哲學。

That is the strategy, philosophy, for both solar and LED.

這就是太陽能和 LED 的戰略和理念。

At this point I think we are perhaps a little further ahead in LED than in solar.

在這一點上，我認為我們在 LED 領域可能比太陽能領域領先一些。

I think the environment is a bit more friendly to the LED also.

我認為環境對 LED 也更友善一些。

So in LED we are forging a way ahead.

因此，在 LED 領域，我們正在開拓前進。

And in fact in the fourth quarter, last quarter, we already had some commercial revenue, by commercial revenue I mean more than samples, but really real product for real money.

事實上，在第四季度，上個季度，我們已經有了一些商業收入，我所說的商業收入不僅僅是樣品，而是真正的真正的產品。

So we already had some revenue.

所以我們已經有了一些收入。

And we expect the revenue to increase pretty dramatically this year.

我們預計今年的收入將大幅成長。

I don't know whether it's going to be 30-fold or not, but it will increase pretty dramatically this year.

我不知道是否會增加30倍，但今年會大幅增加。

Now on solar, as I said, the environment is not as friendly because the world has a at least silicon solar capacity glut.

現在就太陽能而言，正如我所說，環境並不那麼友好，因為世界上至少有矽太陽能產能過剩。

And major countries are putting up incentives for more production.

主要國家正在推出激勵措施以提高產量。

And however, we think that our thin film, our CIGE technology is a pretty promising one and we are spending a lot of R&D money to try to achieve a distinction with the CIGE technology.

然而，我們認為我們的薄膜、我們的 CIGE 技術是一種非常有前景的技術，我們正在花費大量的研發資金來嘗試與 CIGE 技術取得區別。

But we are not in the commercial production, commercial revenue stage yet.

但我們還沒有進入商業化生產、商業收入階段。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The follow-up question is would your LED be based on silicon substrates or traditional sulfur substrates?

後續問題是您的 LED 是基於矽基板還是傳統的硫基板？

I guess -- I think we said that earlier.

我想——我想我們之前就說過了。

We actually have both.

我們實際上兩者都有。

We have both.

我們兩者都有。

You answer the question.

你回答問題。

You answer the question then.

那你就回答問題吧。

Yes, I think we have both.

是的，我想我們兩者都有。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The second question is --.

第二個問題是──。

I'm not sure her answer is right but hopefully [we'll let you know].

我不確定她的答案是否正確，但希望[我們會讓您知道]。

I will verify this and let you know.

我會核實這一點並通知您。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question is what is your total capacity increase in 2013 and would you increase on capacity for 20-nanometer as well?

我的第二個問題是，你們2013年的總產能增加是多少？

Thank you.

謝謝。

We the rise in CapEx we expect to increase the total capacity this year versus last year about 10%.

隨著資本支出的增加，我們預計今年的總產能將比去年增加約 10%。

And we are putting money on 20-nanometer.

我們正在將資金投入 20 奈米。

Yes, we have a small, small pilot line for 20-nanometer.

是的，我們有一條非常小的 20 奈米中試線。

Why do you think I composed that long sentence?

你認為我為什麼寫那麼長的句子？

I said we are planning our capacity accordingly, that means we are spending money on 20.

我說我們正在相應地規劃我們的容量，這意味著我們要花錢買20個。

We will be spending money on 20-nanometer capacity.

我們將把錢花在 20 奈米產能上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question comes from Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的Roland Shu。

Hi, Chairman and Lora.

嗨，主席和洛拉。

My first question is to Lora.

我的第一個問題是問洛拉。

Under your TWD9b CapEx standing this year, so how has the depreciation increased this year?

根據您今年 TWD9b 的資本支出狀況，今年的折舊增加情況如何？

We spent TWD9b, which is very much frontend-loaded, about two-thirds frontend-loaded in first half and one-third in second half.

我們花了 TWD9b，前端加載量很大，大約三分之二在上半場前端加載，三分之一在下半場。

We expect depreciation is -- will go up around 23%, 24% year over year.

我們預計折舊將年增 23% 至 24% 左右。

This is very similar to this year.

這與今年非常相似。

This year depreciation went up by 22%.

今年折舊率上升了22%。

Okay.

好的。

So this is a bigger -- a little bit bigger than 20% you guided us last quarter.

所以這是一個更大的——比您上季度指導我們的 20% 稍大一些。

So what is the reason?

那麼原因是什麼呢？

This, as I just said, will be frontend-loaded so depreciation will happen earlier for the whole year.

正如我剛才所說，這將是前端加載的，因此全年折舊將提前發生。

Okay.

好的。

So how about the first-quarter depreciation?

那麼第一季折舊情況如何呢？

First-quarter depreciation.

第一季折舊。

First-quarter depreciation will be only slightly higher than fourth quarter.

第一季折舊率將僅略高於第四季。

But starting from second quarter it will increase faster.

但從第二季開始，成長速度將會加快。

Okay.

好的。

I think my follow-up question for this one is under IFRS, actually the depreciation years actually can be revisited every year by the Company.

我認為我對這個問題的後續問題是根據國際財務報告準則，實際上公司每年都可以重新審視折舊年度。

So are you considering to change your depreciation year on your 28-nanometer, 20-nanometer or even 16-nanometer investment, since most of this investment on this [backend and life] equipment for this metal interconnection actually can be shared?

那麼，您是否正在考慮更改 28 奈米、20 奈米甚至 16 奈米投資的折舊年度，因為這種金屬互連的[後端和壽命]設備的大部分投資實際上可以共享？

So that means that investment on the [backend and life] of this technology, the lifetime definitely will be longer than previously (inaudible) node.

因此，這意味著對該技術的[後端和壽命]的投資，其壽命肯定會比以前（聽不清楚）節點更長。

So are you considering to revisit the depreciation years for the investment on this node?

那麼您是否考慮重新考慮該節點投資的折舊年限？

Actually our economical life of our technology has always been longer than the depreciation year, which we use five years.

事實上，我們技術的經濟壽命一直比折舊年長，我們使用的是五年。

We have no plan to make it longer.

我們沒有計劃延長它。

But for certain tools, actually the economic life might be lower than five year.

但對於某些工具，實際上經濟壽命可能低於五年。

For those parts we may consider to use lower depreciation years.

對於這些零件，我們可能會考慮使用較低的折舊年份。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That's the other way.

那是另一種方式。

I think he is suggesting that since a lot of equipment can be used for 20 nanometers and 16 and so on, we can make the life longer.

我覺得他是在建議，既然很多設備都可以用20奈米、16奈米等等，我們可以把壽命做得更長。

Well thank you for the thought.

嗯，謝謝你的想法。

We will think about it.

我們會考慮一下。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question actually is to Chairman.

我的第二個問題其實是問主席的。

I think Chairman is commenting this year TSMC growth will be much greater than 7% of the foundry.

我想董事長是在評論今年台積電的成長將遠大於代工的7%。

So can you comment about what's the growth driver to drive such great growth?

那麼您能否評論一下推動如此巨大成長的成長動力是什麼？

And also do you see any momentum change for the IDM outsourcing in this year?

您認為今年IDM外包的動能有什麼改變嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well first of all let me say that I'm not trying to be coy when I say that our growth will be much higher than 7% without specifying a number.

首先我要說的是，當我說我們的成長率將遠高於 7% 時，但沒有具體說明具體數字，我並不是想含糊其辭。

I'm not trying to be coy.

我並不是想害羞。

It's just that if I say -- if I predict more specifically I think that we'll get a call from the Taiwan SEC.

只是如果我說——如果我更具體地說明，我認為我們會接到台灣證券交易委員會的電話。

They will want it, so that's the reason.

他們會想要它，這就是原因。

So no, you asked about the driver.

所以不，你問的是司機。

The driver is the 28-nanometer.

驅動器是28奈米。

And you -- just a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation will show you that the growth of 28-nanometer this year will actually be greater than the total growth of the Company, if the total growth of the Company -- even if the total growth of the Company is much higher than 7%.

而你——只需快速粗略地計算一下就會發現，今年 28 奈米的成長實際上將大於公司的總成長，如果公司的總成長——即使公司整體成長遠高於7%。

I was talking about a -- what, this year's production of 28, triple, yes.

我說的是──什麼，今年的產量是 28 部，三倍，是的。

So that growth is -- and I think your question was originally on what customers, and I'm not going to comment on customers.

所以這種成長是——我認為你的問題最初是關於什麼客戶，我不會對客戶發表評論。

But I will say that the driver is 28-nanometer technology.

但我要說的是驅動器是28奈米技術。

So how about the IDM companies' contribution this year, because IDM -- especially for Japanese IDM company?

那麼今年IDM公司的貢獻如何，因為IDM——尤其是日本IDM公司？

You know the answer or should I answer it?

你知道答案還是我該回答？

Should I answer it with --?

我應該用--來回答嗎？

I also know the answer.

我也知道答案。

I think, yes, I do expect the IDMs in Japan to contribute more.

我想，是的，我確實希望日本的 IDM 能做出更多貢獻。

But compared to the contribution that the 28-nanometer technology will make, the Japanese IDMs' increased outsourcing to us will be relatively small.

但與28奈米技術的貢獻相比，日本IDM對我們增加的外包量相對較小。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

I think somehow at this time there are quite a few analysts who used to attend our conference in person here are actually overseas this time and they are on the call.

我想不知何故，現在有相當多的分析師曾經親自參加我們的會議，這次實際上是在海外，他們正在打電話。

So I think we will now take our next question from the call.

所以我想我們現在將在電話會議中回答下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller.

接線員，請接聽第一位來電者。

The first question on the line today comes from the line of Daniel Heyler from Merrill Lynch.

今天的第一個問題來自美林證券的 Daniel Heyler。

Daniel, please go ahead.

丹尼爾，請繼續。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

I'm sorry that I couldn't be there at this time.

很抱歉我此時不能到場。

Just a quick question, I guess two.

只是一個簡單的問題，我猜有兩個。

First relates to Dr. Chang's growth outlook.

首先涉及到張博士的成長前景。

As you mentioned, foundry growth up 7%, fabless up 9% in 2013, TSMC much bigger than that, and you did mention 28-nanometer.

正如您所提到的，2013 年晶圓代工廠成長了 7%，無晶圓廠成長了 9%，台積電的規模要大得多，而且您確實提到了 28 奈米。

I want to ask, maybe talk a little bit more in terms of some of the end markets because I did notice that your computer and consumer businesses were pretty good in 2012, showing a strong -- pretty strong growth.

我想問一下，也許可以多談談一些終端市場，因為我確實注意到你們的電腦和消費業務在 2012 年表現得相當不錯，顯示出強勁、相當強勁的成長。

I'm wondering in the non-communications business what your prognosis is for your business in 2013.

我想知道您對非通訊業務 2013 年業務的預測如何。

I didn't get it.

我沒明白。

If we exclude the communication-related applications, what would be the growth for TSMC, the non-communication related business growth?

如果排除通訊相關的應用，台積電非通訊相關的業務成長會是多少？

Well I think that almost all the 28-nanometer is communications-related, right?

嗯，我認為幾乎所有 28 奈米都與通訊相關，對嗎？

There are some -- there are some computers too.

有一些——也有一些計算機。

There are some computers.

有一些電腦。

Yes.

是的。

But what would you say?

但你會說什麼？

I'm here roughly calculating with you, Dan.

我在這裡和你粗略地計算一下，丹。

So I think that maybe one-third -- one-third is computers.

所以我認為也許三分之一是計算機。

One-third of the 28-nanometer growth is computers.

28 奈米成長的三分之一來自電腦。

So that leaves two-thirds communications-related.

因此，剩下三分之二與通信相關。

So with that growth, then if we try to answer your question now, I think the rest is, I think, is almost the same; it doesn't change very much.

因此，隨著這種增長，如果我們現在嘗試回答你的問題，我認為其餘的幾乎是相同的；它沒有太大變化。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

So fair to say you don't need to see significant --?

公平地說，你不需要看到重要的──？

You are coming through loud but not very clear.

你的聲音很大但不是很清楚。

So if you maybe slow down a little bit, Dan, and so -- and pronounce each word more clearly, maybe it will help, yes.

所以，丹，如果你放慢一點速度，等等——並且更清楚地發音每個單詞，也許會有幫助，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm trying to save time for my colleagues.

我正在努力為同事節省時間。

Okay.

好的。

So fair to say that the growth this year that you're bullish about, you really don't need to see necessarily a big recovery in consumer or computer to achieve your bullish forecast, that you can pretty much generate that kind of growth particularly from communications.

公平地說，你看好的今年的成長，你真的不需要看到消費者或電腦的大幅復甦來實現你的看漲預測，你幾乎可以產生這種成長，特別是來自通訊。

Is that a fair summary?

這是一個公平的總結嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say a fair summary, but I think really a more basic answer is that we intend to generate our growth with new technology.

我想說的是一個公平的總結，但我認為真正更基本的答案是我們打算透過新技術來成長。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

My second question relates to the cost of 28-nanometer.

我的第二個問題涉及28奈米的成本。

There's many companies, fabless included, have obviously again concerns that perhaps 20-nanometer cost per transistor would see a pretty significant uptick.

許多公司，包括無晶圓廠公司，顯然再次擔心每個電晶體 20 奈米的成本可能會大幅上升。

You have a pretty bullish forecast as well and outlook for that.

您對此也有相當樂觀的預測和前景。

Do we need to see pricing increase either by chip companies and others to pay for this or do you think Moore's law is pretty much intact at 20-nano?

我們是否需要看到晶片公司和其他公司提高定價來為此付出代價，還是您認為摩爾定律在 20 奈米技術上幾乎完好無損？

Moore's law is what?

摩爾定律是什麼？

I think Dan's question is some customers are saying that when we get to 20-nanometer, the cost per transistor actually is higher.

我認為 Dan 的問題是一些客戶說，當我們達到 20 奈米時，每個電晶體的成本實際上更高。

Will TSMC pass on the cost to our customers?

台積電是否會將成本轉嫁給我們的客戶？

I'm not going to answer that.

我不會回答這個問題。

I will just repeat what I said earlier in my statement that enough discussions have taken place with enough customers who have large requirements to lead us to believe that the volume will be very large.

我只想重複我之前在聲明中所說的話，即與足夠多有大量需求的客戶進行了足夠的討論，使我們相信數量將非常大。

No, that's fine.

不，沒關係。

No, I'm actually wondering if -- some of the chip companies have said they may need to increase their prices and, yes, they're willing to try to do that.

不，我實際上想知道一些晶片公司是否表示他們可能需要提高價格，是的，他們願意嘗試這樣做。

So your expectations are that costs will be higher generally, I think from your customers, so I just wanted to get your perspective on that.

因此，我認為您的客戶的期望是成本通常會更高，所以我只是想了解您對此的看法。

Well, again, you're asking me to say something about price and I really am not going to say anything about price.

好吧，你又要我說一些關於價格的事情，而我真的不會說任何關於價格的事情。

But I will just say that enough discussions have taken place with enough customers.

但我只想說，已經與足夠的客戶進行了足夠的討論。

Of course those discussions involve price discussions too, Dan.

當然，這些討論也涉及價格討論，丹。

They are not just -- they were not just technical discussions.

它們不僅僅是——它們不僅僅是技術討論。

So they --.

所以他們 - 。

Yes, not so much about price, just kind of the economics.

是的，與其說是價格，不如說是經濟。

But obviously the design ecosystem is getting very, very good and manufacturing is getting better, I just wondered how things are progressing.

但顯然設計生態系統正在變得非常非常好，製造也越來越好，我只是想知道事情進展如何。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

We will continue on the call.

我們將繼續通話。

Next question will also be coming from the call.

下一個問題也將來自電話會議。

Operator, please proceed to the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

The next question on the phone line today comes from the line of Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.

今天電話線上的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Randy, please go ahead.

蘭迪，請繼續。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

My question first is on competition.

我的第一個問題是關於競爭。

You mentioned in the prepared remarks near 100% share on 28-nanometer last year.

您在準備好的發言中提到去年28奈米的份額接近100%。

Could you talk about how you're viewing the effective capacity and competition on 28-nanometer as it matures this year and whether you're seeing competitors ramp up, and if you could give an early view on your market share in the early stage of 20-nanometer?

您能否談談您如何看待28 奈米技術今年成熟後的有效產能和競爭，以及您是否看到競爭對手在增加，以及您是否可以對您在28 奈米技術早期階段的市場份額有一個初步的了解。

I don't know what the 28-nanometer capacity is.

不知道28奈米容量是多少。

Incidentally, when I say 28, I mean -- when I said 28, I meant 28 and I don't include 32-nanometer.

順便說一句，當我說 28 時，我的意思是——當我說 28 時，我的意思是 28，並且不包括 32 奈米。

If you include 32-nanometer, which is not 28-nanometer, by the way, but if you include that then you of course -- we have a lower market share than almost 100% and the capacity will be correspondingly a lot bigger.

順便說一句，如果你包括 32 奈米，而不是 28 奈米，但如果你包括 32 奈米，那麼你當然 - 我們的市場份額比幾乎 100% 低，容量也會相應地大得多。

Okay.

好的。

But could you say if you're seeing more competitors on the, say, 28/32 as the node matures this year?

但你能說隨著今年節點的成熟，你是否會在 28/32 上看到更多的競爭對手嗎？

And as you look at the tape-out activity on 20, do you see --?

當您查看 20 日的流片活動時，您是否看到—？

We don't group them together.

我們不將它們歸為一組。

32 is not 22 -- 32 is not 28.

32 不是 22——32 不是 28。

Randy, isn't it?

蘭迪，不是嗎？

Yes, Randy.

是的，蘭迪。

Hi, Randy.

嗨，蘭迪。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Now can I say something about competitors in general, the advanced technology competitors?

現在我可以談談一般的競爭對手，也就是先進技術的競爭對手嗎？

Well you know who they are as well as I do.

好吧，你和我一樣知道他們是誰。

So I think every one of them is a formidable competitor.

所以我認為他們每個人都是一個強大的競爭對手。

But I also think that we are ready to tackle, to fight every one of them as we have always been ready to fight every new competitor.

但我也認為我們已經準備好應對每一個新的競爭對手，就像我們一直準備好與每個新的競爭對手作戰一樣。

I remember all the grilling that I went through when we had UMC, when we had SMIC, when we had the Global Foundry, and now we have Samsung and we have Intel.

我記得當我們擁有聯電、中芯國際、格芯、現在我們擁有三星和英特爾時，我所經歷的所有拷問。

Well every one of those are, I think -- every one was a formidable competitor at that time; everyone was.

嗯，我認為，其中每一位都是當時強大的競爭對手；每個人都是。

And we take everyone very, very seriously.

我們非常非常認真地對待每個人。

But we also fought with everyone in the past and with the current competitors that have just appeared on the scene.

但我們也和過去的所有人以及現在剛出現的競爭對手進行過戰鬥。

We always -- we have always felt that we have a lot of strengths.

我們一直——我們一直覺得我們有很多優勢。

And I think in the past I have gone over our strengths.

我認為過去我已經超越了我們的優勢。

And if you want me to repeat them, I'd be very happy to repeat them, but I'm just afraid of boring you.

如果你想讓我重複一遍，我很樂意重複，但我只是怕讓你厭煩。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, they're good.

好吧，他們很好。

If I could follow up on the R&D investment where you had significant growth in 2012, could you talk about whether you expect the same growth in R&D and OpEx as a percent of sales?

如果我可以跟進 2012 年你們的研發投資大幅成長的情況，你能否談談你們是否期望研發和營運支出佔銷售額的百分比也有同樣的成長？

Or as you accelerate your sales growth rate, do you think there's a bit of operating leverage?

或者當你加快銷售成長率時，你認為有一點營運槓桿嗎？

Well we expect a great deal from our increased R&D spending from our strengthening of the R&D, more and more strengthening.

嗯，我們對研發支出的增加抱持著很大期望，因為我們加強了研發，越來越加強。

First of all, I said a little earlier that the growth engine in the next few years is going to be technology.

首先，我之前說過，未來幾年的成長引擎將是科技。

Our growth engine is going to be technology.

我們的成長引擎將是技術。

And we have proven that now already with 28-nanometer and we are going to prove it with 20, with 16, and then, a little later, with the 10.

我們現在已經用 28 奈米證明了這一點，我們將用 20 奈米、16 奈米來證明這一點，稍後再用 10 奈米來證明這一點。

So, why are we -- why have we so dramatically increased our R&D effort in the last few years?

那麼，為什麼我們在過去幾年如此大幅增加了研發力度？

Number one, all right, because technology is going to be our growth engine.

第一，好吧，因為科技將成為我們的成長引擎。

And I have said more than once, more than two or three times, in fact, that as far as Moore's law is concerned, if anyone is going to pursue Moore's law to the end, we will be there.

而且我不只一次說過，不只兩三次了，事實上，就摩爾定律而言，如果有人要把摩爾定律追求到底，我們就在那裡。

So a large part of the money is being spent on the further pursuit of Moore's law.

所以很大一部分錢都花在了摩爾定律的進一步追求上。

And that of course also includes UV, the investment that we have made in ASML, and it also includes the more path-finding type of R&D to improve transistor performance.

當然，這也包括UV，我們對ASML的投資，也包括更多探路型的研發，以提高電晶體性能。

So now, a smaller part will be spent on CoWoS.

所以現在，一小部分將花在 CoWoS 上。

And then another part, which is perhaps a bit greater than was spent on CoWoS, will be spent on specialty technologies, in better Flash and imaging power, power management, and all those specialty technology, that we expect to fill our more mature capacities.

然後，另一部分（可能比 CoWoS 上花費的多一點）將用於專業技術，更好的快閃記憶體和成像能力、電源管理以及所有這些專業技術，我們希望這些技術能填補我們更成熟的能力。

So we grow on new technology and we stay profitable, both with the new technology and with the backfilling of the capacity by specialty technologies.

因此，我們依靠新技術來發展，並透過新技術和專業技術的產能回填來保持獲利。

I guess those are about the main uses of R&D fund, R&D money.

我想這些就是R&D基金、R&D資金的主要用途。

Those are the biggest reasons for us to expend R&D.

這些都是我們加大研發力道的最大原因。

First, relentless pursuit of Moore's law, all facets of it, performance as well as cost as well as density, and including UV and transistor performance improvement.

首先，不懈追求摩爾定律的各個方面，性能、成本和密度，包括紫外線和晶體管性能的改進。

Second, CoWoS and specialty technologies.

其次，CoWoS 和專業技術。

So those are the main uses.

這些是主要用途。

Chairman, I think Randy's question also includes, with all these increases in R&D, whether R&D as a percent of revenue will go up.

主席，我認為蘭迪的問題還包括，隨著研發的增加，研發佔收入的百分比是否會上升。

No.

不。

I -- well I'm not going to predict for the very distant future.

我——嗯，我不會預測很遙遠的未來。

But for this year, and my plan now is to keep it at about 8% because, as I said, the next few years will be either growth years or strong growth years.

但對於今年，我現在的計劃是保持在 8% 左右，因為正如我所說，未來幾年要么是增長年，要么是強勁增長年。

Each one of the next few years will be either a growth year or a strong growth year.

未來幾年要嘛是成長年，要嘛是強勁成長年。

Well, by strong I mean double-digit.

嗯，我所說的強是指兩位數。

By growth year, well, I don't consider 1% growth a growth year, so I mean 1% to 10% is a growth year.

就成長年而言，我不認為 1% 的成長是成長年，所以我的意思是 1% 到 10% 是成長年。

And strong growth year is double digits.

且強勁成長的年份是兩位數。

So over the next few years I expect every one of them will be either growth or strong growth.

因此，在接下來的幾年裡，我預計它們中的每一個都將實現成長或強勁成長。

And so our R&D expenditure will go up even though the percentage as a percent of revenue is not going to change very much.

因此，即使佔收入的百分比不會發生太大變化，我們的研發支出也會增加。

I don't think it's going to decrease.

我不認為它會減少。

Thank you, Dr. Chang.

謝謝你，張醫師。

Okay.

好的。

I think we'll come back to the floor now.

我想我們現在回到會議現場。

Our next question comes from Donald Lu from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的唐納德·盧。

My first question is, if I hear correctly, Chairman, you said fabless growth is 9%, foundry is only 7%.

我的第一個問題是，如果我沒聽錯的話，主席，您說無晶圓廠的成長是 9%，代工廠只有 7%。

Why -- foundry usually grows even faster than the fabless --.

為什麼——代工廠通常比無晶圓廠成長得更快——。

I think it must have to do with the inventory change and all that stuff.

我認為這一定與庫存變化之類的東西有關。

So maybe --.

所以也許——。

Yes.

是的。

I saw the numbers and I really had the same question, but it wasn't important for me to ask.

我看到了這些數字，我確實有同樣的問題，但對我來說問並不重要。

I didn't feel it was important enough to ask the guy that gave me the numbers.

我覺得問給我數字的人還不夠重要。

The guy that gave me the numbers is our veteran forecaster, who is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

給我這些數字的人是我們的資深預測員，他有時是對的，有時是錯的。

Okay.

好的。

So not really -- not very important.

所以並不是真的——不是很重要。

I think it has to do with the inventory change, yes.

我認為這與庫存變化有關，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Just to follow up on that, communication in terms of demand is growing really strong in the last few quarters.

為了跟進這一點，在過去幾個季度中，需求方面的溝通變得非常強勁。

What's -- how much is your revenue from smartphone and tablet today?

您今天從智慧型手機和平板電腦獲得的收入是多少？

How much from smartphone and tablets?

智慧型手機和平板電腦的費用是多少？

Why don't you say it?

為什麼不說呢？

It's about 32%.

大約是32%。

32%, okay.

32%，好。

My next question is more on the --.

我的下一個問題更多的是關於——。

You mean our total revenue, 32% is from smartphones and tablets?

你是說我們的總收入，32% 來自智慧型手機和平板電腦？

Mobile --.

移動的 - 。

That is for the whole year?

那是全年的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Last year?

去年？

2013.

2013年。

In 2013, 32% are from smartphone and tablets?

2013年，32%來自智慧型手機和平板電腦？

And that's including like touch controller, all those --?

這包括觸控控制器，所有這些——？

Right.

正確的。

Right.

正確的。

Components.

成分。

Okay.

好的。

My next question is on structural profitability.

我的下一個問題是關於結構性獲利能力。

Yes.

是的。

My favorite subject.

我最喜歡的科目。

Great.

偉大的。

The first part is the currency is moving in an adverse kind of direction.

第一部分是貨幣正在朝著相反的方向移動。

What's the impact of the currency on gross margin in Q4 and Q1 so we have idea on the apple-to-apple basis?

貨幣對第四季和第一季毛利率的影響是什麼，我們對蘋果之間的情況有什麼了解？

Every 1% of FX change will have a 0.4 percentage point of our margin impact.

匯率每變動 1%，我們的利潤率就會受到 0.4 個百分點的影響。

Okay.

好的。

And for the whole year would we expect structural profitability to trend in either direction?

我們預計全年結構性獲利能力會朝任一方向發展嗎？

Actually our structure profitability this year will be slightly better, about 1 percentage point better than last year, 100 basis points better than last year.

其實今年我們的結構獲利能力會稍微好一點，比去年好1個百分點左右，比去年好100個基點。

On the other hand, we have a couple of uncertainties, one quite large and one not so large.

另一方面，我們有一些不確定性，一個很大，一個不太大。

The quite large one is the loading of the more -- the mature, all the technologies except 28.

相當大的一個是加載更多——成熟的，除了28之外的所有技術。

28-nanometer, we are quite confident will have a utilization rate of around 100%.

28奈米，我們很有信心利用率會達到100%左右。

But all the other technology lines may have a lower utilization than last year.

但所有其他技術線的利用率可能低於去年。

Keep in mind that last year was a tough comparison.

請記住，去年是一個艱難的比較。

Last year everything was slow, the [coast] to 100%.

去年一切都很緩慢，[海岸]達到了100%。

And so I'm not saying at all that this year our utilization will be bad, but I'm saying that last year was a tough comparison.

因此，我並不是說今年我們的利用率會很差，而是說去年是一個艱難的比較。

And so even though -- now our structure, our definition of our structural profitability is -- leaves utilization to one side.

因此，儘管──現在我們的結構，我們對結構性獲利能力的定義是──把利用率放在一邊。

So our structural profitability this year will be better than last year, a little less than 1 percentage point better than last year.

所以我們今年的結構性獲利能力會比去年好一點，比去年好一點點不到1個百分點。

But if you start to talk about actual profit margin then you have to take into account the utilization.

但如果你開始談論實際利潤率，那麼你就必須考慮利用率。

And, as I said, the large uncertainty is utilization.

而且，正如我所說，最大的不確定性在於利用率。

And utilization, we have quoted numbers before.

至於利用率，我們之前已經引用過數字。

Yes.

是的。

1% utilization translates into about 0.35 to 0.4 percentage points.

1% 的利用率大約相當於 0.35 至 0.4 個百分點。

Almost like the exchange rate.

和匯率差不多。

Every percentage less utilization means 0.35 to 0.4 percentage points less gross margin.

利用率每減少一個百分點，就意味著毛利率減少 0.35 到 0.4 個百分點。

So anyway, utilization is a greater uncertainty.

所以無論如何，利用率是一個較大的不確定性。

And then exchange rate, of course, is an uncertainty too.

當然，匯率也是一個不確定性。

Here it's only -- I say it's perhaps not as big an uncertainty because, my goodness, I sure hope that the exchange rate doesn't vary over the map.

只是——我說這也許不是那麼大的不確定性，因為我的天哪，我確實希望匯率在地圖上不會改變。

So -- okay.

所以——好吧。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will also stay with the floor and comes from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

下一個問題也將由摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu 提出。

Yes, hi, Dr. Chang.

是的，你好，張醫生。

Hi, Lora.

嗨，洛拉。

Dr. Chang, if I hear your comments today, it seems like you are positive for the next multiple years and not just this year, whether it's the CapEx comments, whether it's saying that 20-nanometer is going to be bigger than 28, it all points towards several good years ahead of us.

張博士，如果我今天聽到你的評論，看來你對未來幾年持積極態度，而不僅僅是今年，無論是資本支出評論，還是說 20 納米將比 28 納米更大，所有這些都預示著我們未來幾年的美好時光。

Now for that to happen, I think obviously technology you need to migrate, and I think we feel also pretty good about that.

現在要實現這一點，我認為顯然需要遷移技術，而且我認為我們對此也感覺很好。

But the end market also has to be going at a much bigger -- faster pace than before as well.

但終端市場也必須以比以前更大、更快的速度發展。

I'm wondering if you could talk about what gives you the confidence in multiple years out, because it's a very different comment than just saying customer forecasts are good for a couple of quarters.

我想知道您是否可以談談是什麼讓您對未來幾年充滿信心，因為這與僅僅說客戶預測在幾個季度內表現良好是完全不同的評論。

And then secondly, what signs are you looking for that things aren't going to be that good?

其次，你在尋找什麼跡象表明事情不會那麼好？

I think, Bill, your question is, what is -- what will be the growth drivers for the end market, right?

我認為，比爾，你的問題是，終端市場的成長動力是什麼，對嗎？

End market.

終端市場。

Yes.

是的。

In multiple years, I mean four years, all right?

多年後，我的意思是四年，好嗎？

Last year I meant five years and now I mean four years, okay?

去年我的意思是五年，現在的意思是四年，好嗎？

So it's not multiple, multiple, multiple years.

所以這不是多年、多年、多年。

It's four years.

已經四年了。

And then the -- you are concerned that the world may end in the next four years.

然後——你擔心世界可能會在未來四年內終結。

Anyway, the economy makes for that.

不管怎樣，經濟是有原因的。

No, of course, we're not predicting anything like that.

不，當然，我們不會預測類似的事情。

And we are just following the conventional, consensual economic scenario, which is that the developed countries, US and Europe, will grow very slowly -- well actually US will grow medium slowly, 2.5% perhaps.

我們只是遵循傳統的、一致的經濟情景，即美國和歐洲等已開發國家將成長非常緩慢——實際上美國將成長中等緩慢，也許是2.5%。

And Europe will do worse.

歐洲的情況將會更糟。

And Japan also will do worse than the United States.

日本的表現也會比美國更差。

Of course one never knows what the new Prime Minister is going to do.

當然，人們永遠不知道新首相會做什麼。

One knows what he has already done, and what he has already done seems to be a bit on the positive side.

人們知道他已經做了什麼，而且他已經做了的事情似乎有點積極的一面。

But anyway, we're assuming that.

但無論如何，我們假設是這樣。

And we are also assuming that the developing economies will do quite well, China principally, but also a lot of other countries that China now exports to.

我們也假設發展中經濟體會表現得很好，主要是中國，還有中國現在出口的許多其他國家。

Now all these smartphones and some tablets that China makes are not for Chinese consumption; they go to other countries.

現在中國製造的所有這些智慧型手機和一些平板電腦都不是供中國人消費的；他們去了其他國家。

They go to other developing countries.

他們去了其他發展中國家。

And we believe that those developing economies will do quite well.

我們相信那些發展中經濟體將會表現得很好。

So that's our macroeconomic scenario.

這就是我們的宏觀經濟情景。

As far as the market is concerned -- the application market is concerned, we are -- we predict that the mobile products will be the dominant new products on the computer scene.

就市場而言——應用市場而言，我們——我們預測行動產品將成為電腦領域的主導新產品。

And I think that they will continue to eat into the traditional notebook PC market.

而且我認為他們將繼續蠶食傳統筆記型電腦市場。

So I think these are really not -- they are pretty conventional assumptions.

所以我認為這些其實不是——它們是非常傳統的假設。

And those are the assumptions that we're making when we say that we are going to grow quite strongly in the next four years now, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, yes.

當我們說我們將在未來四年（2013 年、2014 年、2015 年、2016 年）實現強勁成長時，這些就是我們所做的假設。

I'm also wondering if there's anything that you're looking at that might change your mind.

我還想知道您正在查看的任何內容是否可能會改變您的想法。

Well, a lot of things could change our mind.

嗯，很多事情都可以改變我們的想法。

A lot of things could change my mind, yes.

是的，很多事情都會改變我的想法。

But what do you have in mind that would change my mind?

但你的想法會改變我的想法嗎？

I think a lot of things could change my mind.

我認為很多事情都可以改變我的想法。

If the US economy suddenly falls apart, then -- well then there's -- that will be a very big change, a pretty significant change.

如果美國經濟突然崩潰，那麼——好吧——那將是一個非常大的變化，一個相當重大的變化。

It won't change everything but it will be a significant change, yes.

它不會改變一切，但它將是一個重大的改變，是的。

Same question is maybe for Lora.

洛拉可能也有同樣的問題。

We're now in I guess, what, the fifth or sixth quarter of 28-nanometer production and typically you would expect to see pricing start to come down a little bit.

我猜，我們現在正處於 28 奈米生產的第五或第六季度，通常您會期望看到價格開始略有下降。

But this year there's also a move from poly to high-K metal gate.

但今年也出現了從多晶矽閘極轉向高 K 金屬閘極的趨勢。

So can you help me with how you think about pricing for 28 this year versus how I forecasted the previous nodes?

那麼，您能幫我談談您對今年 28 節點定價的看法以及我對先前節點的預測嗎？

We should -- we look at the structural profitability other than just looking at the pricing.

我們應該關注結構性獲利能力，而不僅僅是關注定價。

So we have to work both on the pricing and also for the cost end.

因此，我們必須同時關注定價和成本端。

I think Chairman and I just said from this quarter, the 28-nanometer with higher utilization will track to corporate level margin and going forward we'll keep our intent like that.

我認為董事長和我剛剛說過，從本季度開始，利用率更高的 28 奈米製程將達到企業級的利潤率，未來我們將保持這樣的意圖。

I think on the longer term that's what we also intend to do to maintain the similar level or even slightly higher than standard gross margin.

我認為從長遠來看，這也是我們打算維持類似水準甚至略高於標準毛利率的做法。

Bill, as you know that we cannot talk about specific prices.

比爾，正如你所知，我們不能談論具體價格。

All right?

好的？

Thank you for the understanding.

感謝您的體諒。

Now we'll go back to the call.

現在我們回到通話。

Operator, please proceed with the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

The next question on the phone comes from the line of Andrew Lu from Barclays.

電話裡的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·盧(Andrew Lu)。

Andrew, please go ahead.

安德魯，請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dr. Chang and Lora, thank you for taking my question.

張醫師和洛拉，謝謝你們回答我的問題。

My first question is regarding earlier Dr. Chang mentioned year 2014 the 20-nanometer volume will be higher than '12 and '15 will be higher than '13.

我的第一個問題是關於張博士之前提到的，2014 年 20 奈米體積將高於“12”，而“15”將高於“13”。

Is that including 16 FinFET in the year 2015 as well?

這也包括 2015 年的 16 個 FinFET 嗎？

No, it does not.

不，不是的。

So only the 20 high-K metal gate.

所以只有20個高K金屬閘極。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now if you go to 2016 then I would tell you something different.

現在，如果你回到 2016 年，那麼我會告訴你一些不同的事情。

But let's not go there for the time being.

不過我們暫時不去那裡。

So do you suggest there will be no 16 FinFET production in the year 2015?

那麼您是否認為2015年不會有16 FinFET的生產？

I think it will be relatively small.

我認為它會相對較小。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My second question is the CoWoS, the 2.5G packaging.

我的第二個問題是CoWoS，2.5G封裝。

If you are charging customers $5,000 per wafer, if you are doing a turnkey for customer on CoWoS, what additional value you can get from this customer basis?

如果您向客戶收取每片晶圓 5,000 美元的費用，如果您在 CoWoS 上為客戶提供交鑰匙服務，您可以從這個客戶基礎上獲得什麼額外價值？

Well I think the advantage that a customer will get is that we will be in charge of everything.

嗯，我認為客戶將獲得的優勢是我們將負責一切。

We will be responsible for the whole thing till it's all packaged.

我們將負責整個事情，直到全部包裝完畢。

And so if we -- if he uses a another [OSAP] then who is going to be responsible for the yields?

因此，如果我們 - 如果他使用另一個 [OSAP] 那麼誰將對收益負責？

I think it will be a more difficult situation.

我認為這將是一個更加困難的情況。

So our advice to our customer is to let us handle the whole thing.

因此，我們對客戶的建議是讓我們來處理整件事情。

Now of course we have to be competitive in price and all that, and of course we're willing to do all that.

當然，現在我們必須在價格等方面具有競爭力，我們當然願意這麼做。

But at the end I think that it will be advantageous for the customer to have us handle the whole thing.

但最終我認為讓我們處理整件事對客戶來說是有利的。

Yes.

是的。

But can we make some revenue by the CoWoS?

但是我們可以透過 CoWoS 獲得一些收入嗎？

For example, if we charge the customer $5,000 a wafer, can we get additional $2,000, $3,000 on this kind of [holding back end]?

例如，如果我們向客戶收取每片晶圓 5,000 美元的費用，我們是否可以在這種[保留後端]上額外獲得 2,000 美元、3,000 美元？

Well things are getting a little expensive aren't they?

好吧，東西變得有點貴了，不是嗎？

But then applications still grow and I think that of course in a free market economy, every price finds its equilibrium.

但應用仍然在成長，我認為當然在自由市場經濟中，每個價格都會找到平衡。

So there needs to be enough demand and enough supply for there to be a price.

因此，需要有足夠的需求和足夠的供應才能有價格。

So that's how it works.

這就是它的工作原理。

And we feel quite confident that we can find this equilibrium and it will make it worthwhile for both a customer and for us to do this thing.

我們非常有信心能夠找到這種平衡，這對客戶和我們來說都是值得做這件事的。

Otherwise it won't be a business and we think it will be a business.

否則它就不會成為一項業務，而我們認為它將成為一項業務。

We think it will not be a significant business until 2015/2016.

我們認為，直到 2015/2016 年，這都不會成為一項重要業務。

As I said earlier, even a year ago I said that it will not be a $1b or more business until 2015 or 2016, and I still feel that way.

正如我之前所說，甚至一年前我就說過，要到 2015 年或 2016 年，它才會成為 10 億美元或更多的業務，而且我仍然有這種感覺。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will continue with the call.

我們將繼續通話。

And operator, please proceed with the next caller on the line.

接線員，請繼續接聽線路上的下一個來電者。

The next question on the phone comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

電話中的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Mehdi, please go ahead.

邁赫迪，請繼續。

Yes, thanks for taking my question.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題。

I have one question for Dr. Chang and one for Lora.

我有一個問題想問張醫生，也有一個問題想問洛拉。

It was interesting to hear Intel as part of your competitors.

聽到英特爾成為競爭對手的一部分是很有趣的。

Dr. Chang, could you please elaborate at what technology node and what kind of an end market application or segment you view Intel as becoming a more fierce competitor?

張博士，您能否詳細說明您認為英特爾在哪些技術節點以及什麼樣的終端市場應用或細分市場成為更激烈的競爭對手？

So Mehdi, your question is, according to TSMC's view, at which technology node will Intel becomes a more fierce competitor to us.

所以Mehdi，你的問題是，按照台積電的觀點，英特爾在哪個技術節點上會成為我們更激烈的競爭對手。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

Did he use the word fierce?

他用了猛烈這個詞嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Intel is very fierce to me now already, whether they are a competitor or not.

英特爾現在對我來說已經很激烈了，無論他們是否是競爭對手。

At what node?

在什麼節點？

Well, my goodness, I think that they are a competitor to us.

好吧，天哪，我認為他們是我們的競爭對手。

Don't they have at least two foundry customers already?

他們不是已經有至少兩個代工廠客戶了嗎？

Is it two or is it more?

是兩個還是更多？

Two, yes.

兩個，是的。

So they are a competitor.

所以他們是競爭對手。

And I do believe that, I think Intel said it themselves and I believe them, that they will be very selective and they will not go out in a general way.

我確實相信，我認為英特爾自己說過，我也相信他們，他們會非常有選擇性，不會以普遍的方式出去。

They are not going to be like a TSMC.

他們不會像台積電那樣。

I don't know whether they said it complimentarily or deprecatingly.

不知道他們說的是褒義還是貶義。

I imagine it's the latter actually.

我想實際上是後者。

But anyway, I believe it.

但無論如何，我相信。

They are going to -- they're not going to be like a TSMC, which means that they will be selective and they will not be a general competitor.

他們將——他們不會像台積電那樣，這意味著他們將有選擇性，並且不會成為一般的競爭對手。

Now as a selective competitor, I think they're already a competitor.

現在作為選擇性競爭對手，我認為他們已經是競爭對手了。

And I think they intend to be a bigger competitor in the future.

我認為他們打算在未來成為一個更大的競爭對手。

And they can do that any time they become qualified.

只要他們有資格，他們就可以隨時這樣做。

Got it.

知道了。

And then my final one has more to do with the P&L.

然後我的最後一項更多地與損益表有關。

If R&D is going to stay around 8%, how should we think about SG&A for 2013?

如果研發費用將維持在 8% 左右，我們應該如何考慮 2013 年的 SG&A？

Is that also going to stay in the 4% to 5% range?

是否也會維持在 4% 至 5% 的範圍內？

SG&A is in the 4%, roughly 4% range.

SG&A 在 4% 左右，大約在 4% 的範圍內。

If gross revenue gets higher growth, it can be nearly 3.5% to 4%, in that range.

如果總收入獲得更高的成長，在這個範圍內可能會接近 3.5% 至 4%。

Okay.

好的。

And then one final question.

然後是最後一個問題。

Is there any way you can elaborate the number of tape-outs at 20-nanometer or if you can elaborate or quantify how many customers or anything that would give us a sense how the early demand looks like.

有沒有什麼方法可以詳細說明 20 奈米的流片數量，或者是否可以詳細說明或量化有多少客戶或任何能讓我們了解早期需求的資訊。

Well, Lora, you want to answer that question or you don't want to answer that?

好吧，洛拉，你想回答這個問題還是不想回答這個問題？

I don't.

我不。

Up to you.

由你決定。

It's up to you whether we answer the question or don't answer the question.

我們是否回答問題取決於您。

I will not answer this question.

我不會回答這個問題。

He's asking how much of our --

他問我們有多少——

Tape-outs in 20-nanometer.

20 奈米製程流片。

How much of CapEx?

資本支出有多少？

Tape-out.

流片。

Tape-out for 20.

20 的流片。

Tape-out.

流片。

New product tape-out.

新產品流片。

Okay.

好的。

For 20-nanometer, no.

對於 20 奈米，沒有。

I guess I would just limit myself to the comment that I already made that we have had enough discussions with enough customers who have large requirements that lead us to believe that the volume required in 2014 and in 2015 will be bigger than the 28-nanometer volume in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

我想我只想僅限於我已經發表過的評論，即我們已經與足夠多的客戶進行了足夠的討論，他們有很大的要求，這使我們相信2014 年和2015 年所需的體積將大於28 奈米的體積分別於2012年和2013年。

Did you get that this time?

這次你明白了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Now we are coming back to the floor.

現在我們回到會議現場。

Any questions?

任何問題？

Okay.

好的。

Next question comes from JP Morgan, Rick Hsu.

下一個問題來自摩根大通Rick Hsu。

Happy New Year, Chairman and Lora.

主席和洛拉，新年快樂。

Likewise to you.

對你來說也是如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just one question from me.

我只想問一個問題。

You mentioned earlier about your customer inventory, it's going to be still 4 days above seasonal in Q1.

您之前提到過您的客戶庫存，第一季仍比季節性高 4 天。

Supply chain inventory.

供應鏈庫存。

All right, supply chain inventory, yes, rather than 1 day below seasonal in Q1.

好吧，供應鏈庫存，是的，而不是第一季比季節性低 1 天。

So would that negatively affect your second-quarter loading because that means your customers may exit Q1 still with excess inventory?

那麼，這會對您第二季的負載產生負面影響嗎？

That's pretty smart.

這非常聰明。

Rick.

瑞克.

Rick, yes.

瑞克，是的。

Yes, I think it means that the second-quarter growth may not be quite as strong because first quarter is higher than we thought.

是的，我認為這意味著第二季的成長可能不會那麼強勁，因為第一季的成長比我們想像的要高。

Our scenario three months ago, six months ago, was that the first quarter would be low and second quarter, I think six months ago I even used the word strong rebound, did I not, Rick?

三個月前、六個月前，我們的情景是，第一季度將處於低位，第二季度，我想六個月前我甚至使用了「強勁反彈」這個詞，不是嗎，里克？

Yes.

是的。

But three months ago I deliberately omitted the word strong, but I said there'd be a rebound.

但三個月前我故意省略了「強」這個詞，但我說會有反彈。

So now I can maintain my words that I used three months ago.

所以現在我可以維持三個月前的話。

There will be a rebound.

將會出現反彈。

But it will not be a strong rebound as we thought it was going to be six months ago.

但它不會像我們六個月前認為的那樣出現強勁反彈。

Six months ago we thought first quarter would be quite low.

六個月前，我們認為第一季的業績會相當低。

In fact, six months ago we thought the fourth quarter and first quarter will be quite low.

事實上，六個月前我們認為第四季和第一季的業績將會相當低。

And it has now turned out that the fourth quarter was quite a bit -- quite a lot stronger than we anticipated six months ago and that the first quarter is also stronger than we anticipated six months ago.

現在事實證明，第四季比我們六個月前的預期要強得多，第一季也比我們六個月前的預期要強。

But then in the second quarter the strong rebound that I referred to six months ago in the second quarter will not be quite as strong as we thought six months ago.

但在第二季度，我六個月前提到的第二季度的強勁反彈將不會像六個月前我們想像的那麼強勁。

All this came about because I said too much, I guess.

我想這一切都是因為我說太多了。

So maybe the thing to do is not to say very much and just keep my mouth shut, and I think it would be a less interesting conference though.

所以也許要做的事情就是不要說太多，只是閉嘴，但我認為這將是一次不太有趣的會議。

Thank you.

謝謝。

If there's no more questions from -- there is, okay.

如果沒有其他問題了——那就好了。

Next one, well, the next question comes from HSBC, Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行史蒂文‧佩拉約。

Just two quick questions.

只是兩個簡單的問題。

One on some of the longer-term concerns to follow up Bill's question.

一是關於跟進比爾問題的一些長期問題。

I think we are in the steepest part of this transition now to the smartphone revolution.

我認為我們現在正處於向智慧型手機革命過渡的最陡峭階段。

I think maybe it's even a majority of smartphones that are shipping today than feature phones.

我認為今天出貨的智慧型手機可能比功能手機還要多。

So it's the glory days, I guess you could say.

我想你可以說，這是輝煌的日子。

And we were talking a year or two ago about how much your dollar content increased with the silicon content increase.

一兩年前我們討論過隨著矽含量的增加，你的美元含量增加了多少。

So this is a 1b-unit market, maybe a 2b-unit market even in a couple of years.

所以這是一個 1b 單位市場，甚至幾年後也可能是 2b 單位市場。

But clearly we are passing that threshold of now 50%.

但顯然我們現在已經超過了 50% 的門檻。

So we do worry two years from now, three years from now, where maybe smartphones are --.

所以我們確實擔心兩年後、三年後智慧型手機可能會出現在哪裡。

You said a $1b, $2b market?

你說的是 10 億美元、20 億美元的市場嗎？

No, 1b-unit.

不，1b 單元。

1b units, yes.

1b 單位，是的。

So we do worry what's that next 1b-plus-unit market that's going to have the same kind of silicon content increase that we've enjoyed in the smartphone revolution.

因此，我們確實擔心下一個 1b+ 單位市場將會出現什麼，該市場將具有我們在智慧型手機革命中所享受的相同類型的矽含量增加。

I wish I knew.

我希望我知道。

I wish I knew.

我希望我知道。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

I don't know as well.

我也不太清楚。

The one follow-up I will say is that I think the math says that your 28-nanometer revenues now are bigger than all of UMC, so congratulations.

我要說的一個後續問題是，我認為數學顯示你們現在 28 奈米的收入比 UMC 的所有收入都多，所以恭喜。

That formidable competitor is a distant image in the rearview mirror.

那個強大的競爭對手是後視鏡中遙遠的形象。

I think it's a lot bigger than UMC.

我認為它比UMC大得多。

I think it is a lot actually.

我認為實際上很多。

But I do want to talk a little bit about the surrounding nodes, first going up to 40-nanometer, because a lot of guys are still there and it is still more than 20% of revenues for you.

但我確實想談談周圍的節點，首先是 40 奈米，因為很多人仍然在那裡，而且它仍然佔你收入的 20% 以上。

Is there any more intense pricing environment or intense competition?

是否存在更激烈的定價環境或激烈的競爭？

Are people picking up second source in 40-nanometer here?

人們是否正在尋找 40 奈米的第二個來源？

We -- I think that our 40-nanometer market share has dropped.

我認為我們的 40 奈米市場份額已經下降。

I know it has dropped.

我知道它已經下降了。

We are just -- and we anticipated that and we certainly -- we're not going to just fight to -- we're not going to lower our price below what we intended to lower it to.

我們只是 - 我們預料到了這一點，而且我們當然 - 我們不會只是奮鬥 - 我們不會將我們的價格降低到我們打算降低的水平以下。

We had our price strategy and we're not going to do anything different on price to -- in order -- just in order to keep the market share.

我們有自己的價格策略，我們不會在價格上做任何不同的事情——按順序——只是為了保持市場份額。

But we do try to let it drop in a controlled manner.

但我們確實試圖讓它以受控的方式下降。

And the way we do fight to make the drop a sort of controllable one is to backfill the capacity with specialty technologies.

我們努力讓下降成為一種可控的方式，就是用專業技術回填容量。

Specialty technologies are actually migrating upwards.

專業技術實際上正在向上遷移。

They are just two or three or four generations behind the latest graphics, the latest APs and so on.

它們僅比最新顯示卡、最新 AP 等落後兩代、三代或四代。

Imagers were still at -- they are still at -- which generation?

成像儀仍然處於——他們仍然處於——哪一代？

90.

90.

90, yes.

90，是的。

But they will be migrating to --?

但他們將遷移到—？

65.

65.

65, yes.

65，是的。

So -- and they had migrated from 0.13 earlier.

所以——他們已經從之前的 0.13 版本遷移了。

That's just taking one example.

這只是舉個例子。

And another example is all these microcontrollers and so on.

另一個例子是所有這些微控制器等等。

They're still at, what --?

他們還在，什麼──？

0.18.

0.18。

0.18.

0.18。

And they'll be migrating into 0.13 and so on.

他們將遷移到 0.13 等等。

And the power stuff is --?

電力的東西是──？

0.25.

0.25。

0.25, yes, and they've been migrating to 0.18 and so on.

0.25，是的，他們已經遷移到 0.18 等等。

So that's the picture.

這就是圖片。

That is the strategy.

這就是策略。

And as I said earlier, I said a small part of our R&D money is being spent and a small part is really not that small.

正如我剛才所說，我說我們的研發資金有一小部分被花掉了，而且這一小部分確實沒有那麼小。

It's quite a large group.

這是一個相當大的群體。

It's of course much smaller than the more [slow pursuit], but it's important to us to develop these special -- to let them migrate into the older technologies, very important to us.

它當然比更[緩慢的追擊]要小得多，但開發這些特殊的技術對我們來說很重要——讓它們遷移到舊的技術中，這對我們來說非常重要。

Can I just do two quick follow-ups to that?

我可以對此做兩次快速跟進嗎？

I really appreciate you guys commenting on 28-nanometer mix for the full year and corporate average gross margin.

我真的很感謝你們對全年 28 奈米組合和企業平均毛利率的評論。

Could you just help us think, if we were trying to forecast the bottoms-up gross margins for you by node, so what is the 40-nanometer relative to your corporate average?

您能否幫助我們思考一下，如果我們試圖按節點預測您自下而上的毛利率，那麼相對於您公司的平均水平，40 奈米是多少？

What is a mature node relative to your corporate average gross margins?

相對於你的企業平均毛利率來說，成熟節點是多少？

You don't have to be specific, but help me understand as I'm trying to think about bottoms-up gross margin forecasting.

您不必具體說明，但請幫助我理解，因為我正在嘗試考慮自下而上的毛利率預測。

I will give you a general philosophy, all right?

我會給你一個整體的哲學，好嗎？

It was a philosophy that I started 27 years ago when TSMC was started.

這是我 27 年前台積電成立時就開始的理念。

My philosophy then and my philosophy now is I want all the products we make to be within a pretty narrow gross margin range.

我當時和現在的理念是，我希望我們生產的所有產品都在一個相當狹窄的毛利率範圍內。

So that remains true till today.

所以直到今天仍然如此。

I don't want to have -- the reason I started this -- that philosophy was because I hated to have to pick because of the gross margin.

我不想——我開始這個的原因——這種哲學是因為我討厭因為毛利率而不得不選擇。

Capacity becomes tight.

容量變得緊張。

You make more risk because it's high margin and that was such an unnecessary burden on the manager's mind.

你會承擔更多的風險，因為利潤率很高，這對經理來說是不必要的負擔。

I didn't want that.

我不想那樣。

And now I still don't want that.

現在我仍然不想要那樣。

I don't want to have to pick between the various opportunities just because of gross margin.

我不想僅僅因為毛利率而在各種機會之間進行選擇。

So a simple answer to your question is that we try to keep the margins on all products within a pretty narrow range.

因此，對您問題的簡單回答是，我們盡力將所有產品的利潤保持在相當窄的範圍內。

I would say it's a 10-point range.

我想說這是一個10分的範圍。

But -- well, not even that big.

但是——好吧，甚至沒有那麼大。

I would say it's a 7-, 8-point range.

我想說這是一個7分、8分的範圍。

And my last question was just on some of the -- expanding your addressable market into things like LEDs, solar, packaging.

我的最後一個問題只是關於將您的潛在市場擴展到 LED、太陽能、包裝等領域。

If I try to corner you and ask you when do you think those would be 5% of revenues, would you give me a year?

如果我試著逼迫你，問你什麼時候這些會占到收入的 5%，你會給我一年時間嗎？

Solar did you say?

你說的是太陽能嗎？

Your new markets, solar, LED and packaging.

您的新市場：太陽能、LED 和包裝。

When do you think they could be 5% of total TSMC?

你認為他們什麼時候可以占到台積電總數的5%？

I'm not even counting on solar and LED.

我什至不指望太陽能和 LED。

Those we have already [spun out].

我們已經[剝離]了這些。

Packaging, as I said, will be a $1b in 2015, 2016.

正如我所說，2015、2016 年包裝將達到 10 億美元。

$1b by then, it's only a few percent.

到那時，1b 美元就只剩下百分之幾了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

I see there's still one caller on the line who has been waiting for a long time.

我看到線路上還有一位已經等了很久的來電者。

So operator, let's open the line to the next caller.

接線員，讓我們接通下一個來電者的線路。

Your next question on the line comes from the line of Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

Brett, please go ahead.

布雷特，請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Dr. Chang, you mentioned this year wafer capacity for 28-nanometer will triple for TSMC.

張博士，您提到今年台積電28奈米晶圓產能將增加兩倍。

But how do you assess the total industry supply at 28-nanometer this year for foundry?

但您如何評估今年28奈米晶圓代工的產業總供應量？

And what level of increase do you see overall?

您認為整體成長水準如何？

So what level of increase do you see overall?

那麼您認為整體成長水準是多少？

And what market share do you think might be achievable for TSMC at 28-nanometer this year?

您認為台積電今年在 28 奈米的市佔率可以達到多少？

All right.

好的。

Brett, your question is what is our view on the overall supply of 28-nanometer this year and what TSMC's market share is going to be on 28-nanometer this year.

Brett，你的問題是我們對今年28奈米的整體供應量有何看法，以及今年台積電在28奈米的市佔率會是多少。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Overall supply/demand?

整體供給/需求？

Capacity of 28.

容量28。

What is the number?

號碼多少？

Yes, right.

是的，沒錯。

Because we will be triple.

因為我們將成為三倍。

What about the other people?

其他人呢？

I don't think we give -- I was going to give the capacity but then our CFO told me that we don't do that.

我不認為我們給予——我本來打算給予能力，但後來我們的財務長告訴我，我們不這樣做。

Now market share, there since our CFO didn't tell me not to do it, so I'll venture forth and say that I said that the last year it was almost close to 100%.

現在是市場份額，因為我們的財務長沒有告訴我不要這樣做，所以我冒昧地說，我說過去年幾乎接近 100%。

So I do expect that it will drop slightly from there.

所以我確實預計它會從那裡略有下降。

But I think that this year maybe we'll be close to 90%.

但我認為今年可能會接近 90%。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And can you talk a bit about the 20-nanometer ramp schedule?

您能談談 20 奈米斜坡計畫嗎？

So when specifically might we start to see first revenues for TSMC at 20-nanometer?

那麼，我們具體什麼時候可以開始看到台積電在 20 奈米製程上的第一筆收入呢？

When will we see 20-nanometer revenue?

我們什麼時候才能看到 20 奈米的營收？

When?

什麼時候？

We are going to see quite a bit in 2014.

2014 年我們將會看到很多這樣的情況。

Didn't I say that 2014 will be bigger than 2012?

我不是說2014年會比2012年更大嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes.

是的。

2014 will be bigger than 2012.

2014年將比2012年更大。

28, 2012 for 28, yes.

2012 年 28 日，28 日，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just a final question on inventory.

然後也許只是關於庫存的最後一個問題。

Dr. Chang, you mentioned that the inventories -- supply chain inventories aren't falling aggressively in Q1 as you first thought.

張博士，您提到庫存——供應鏈庫存在第一季並沒有像您最初想像的那樣大幅下降。

How do you assess the situation beyond Q1?

您如何評估第一季之後的情況？

Do you think that the industry inventory levels get back to normal levels in Q2 or do you think it will take longer before this equilibrium takes place?

您認為第二季行業庫存水準會恢復到正常水準還是需要更長的時間才能達到平衡？

Well you're asking me about second quarter, and really we aren't ready to give our second-quarter guidance yet.

好吧，你問我第二季的情況，實際上我們還沒準備好給出第二季的指導。

But I will say that our current view of second-quarter inventory, supply chain inventory in the second quarter is also going to be higher than our previous view.

但我要說的是，我們目前對第二季庫存的看法，第二季供應鏈庫存也將高於我們先前的看法。

In other words, the change from our previous view of inventory is that the previous view forecasted a pretty steep decline of inventory in the fourth quarter, in the first quarter and in the second quarter.

換句話說，我們先前對庫存看法的變化是，先前預測第四季、第一季和第二季的庫存下降幅度相當大。

And our current view is that the inventory will stay a lot flatter.

我們目前的觀點是庫存將保持穩定。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

We are coming back to the floor.

我們將回到會議現場。

Next question comes from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

下一個問題來自高盛，Donald Lu。

My first question is on tax.

我的第一個問題是關於稅收的。

We have a new tax rate this year which is quite taxing, in a way.

今年我們有一個新的稅率，從某種程度上來說，這是相當徵稅的。

You are right.

你是對的。

And there are various ways you might be able to reduce that, for example, going to a less taxing jurisdiction, like Intel always does that.

您可以透過多種方式來減少這種情況，例如，進入稅收較低的司法管轄區，就像英特爾一貫地這樣做的那樣。

For example, Intel built a fab in Israel, Ireland, Dalian, etc.

例如，英特爾在以色列、愛爾蘭、大連等地建有晶圓廠。

Would TSMC considering that given the change in tax rate?

鑑於稅率的變化，台積電會考慮這一點嗎？

I think we may consider that not only for the -- not purely on the tax reason, because to build a fab outside of Taiwan is a big thing.

我認為我們可能會考慮這不僅僅是出於稅收原因，因為在台灣以外建立晶圓廠是一件大事。

We have to look into the efficiency, the cost and the local environment etc., etc.

我們要考慮效率、成本、當地環境等等。

So currently we are not thinking just for the tax reason to go offshore.

因此，目前我們不僅考慮稅收原因而考慮離岸。

But maybe for the overall growth reason and any other reason, bigger-picture reason we may consider that.

但也許出於整體成長的原因和任何其他原因，我們可能會考慮這一點。

I think Donald is thinking about Cayman Islands and so on.

我認為唐納德正在考慮開曼群島等問題。

Maybe he's not thinking of moving our factory offshore, I don't think.

也許他並沒有考慮把我們的工廠搬到海外，我不這麼認為。

Right?

正確的？

He's talking about that.

他正在談論這個。

I think both.

我認為兩者都有。

Whatever works, so that in the future years maybe we can model the tax rate might decline again at some point.

不管怎樣，在未來的幾年裡，我們也許可以模擬稅率可能會在某個時候再次下降。

I'm not very optimistic about that.

我對此不太樂觀。

Yes, we are paying 14% this year and I think you just said that you expect to pay 14% next year also.

是的，我們今年支付 14%，我想您剛剛說過您預計明年也支付 14%。

Yes.

是的。

But basically the Taiwan corporate income tax rate is still not very high; it's 17%.

但基本上台灣企業所得稅稅率仍然不是很高；是17%。

The United States has a 35% income tax rate.

美國的所得稅率為35%。

And now actually I looked at the -- I looked up -- (inaudible), you looked up Intel's effective tax rate for me, right?

現在實際上我看了——我抬頭了——（聽不清楚），你幫我查了英特爾的有效稅率，對嗎？

What was it?

它以前如何？

Do you remember?

你是否記得？

It was like 27%, yes.

大概是 27%，是的。

No, no.

不，不。

You looked up for me.

你抬頭尋找我。

It was a lot lower than that, I think.

我認為比這個低很多。

Well, nobody knows.

好吧，沒人知道。

It's 27%.

是27%。

Was it 27% for the year?

今年是27%嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We looked at the number.

我們查看了這個數字。

I thought it was lower than that.

我以為比這個低。

But, yes, I thought it was lower at least in the first/second.

但是，是的，我認為至少在第一/第二階段它較低。

But anyway it was -- all right.

但無論如何，這都是——好吧。

But the United States has a corporate income tax rate of 35%.

但美國的企業所得稅稅率為35%。

And so anyway, we do have a lot of things to consider.

無論如何，我們確實有很多事情需要考慮。

But I agree with you that the 14%, a jump of 5 points, some points between last year and this year, I think that's certainly not a good thing for us.

但我同意你的看法，14%，跳躍了5個百分點，去年和今年之間的一些百分點，我認為這對我們來說肯定不是一件好事。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is on the treatment for ASML investment.

第二個問題是關於ASML投資的待遇。

You just said you are putting that all in the investment ready for sale.

您剛才說您將把所有這些都投入準備出售的投資中。

But there are two portions of that; one is for the stock, one is for R&D investment.

但這有兩個部分：一是股票，一是研發投入。

But the later part, what can you sell, the part you give ASML to help its R&D?

但後面的部分，你能賣什麼，你給ASML幫助它研發的部分？

That R&D support will be expenses, will be R&D expenses when it comes.

研發支援將是費用，到時將是研發費用。

And that would be expensed over certain years or --?

這將在某些年份內支出，或者——？

Five years.

5年。

Starting this year, right.

從今年開始吧。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So that's part of the R&D expense already.

所以這已經是研發費用的一部分了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

If there's no further questions I think we'll conclude this quarter's investors conference.

如果沒有其他問題，我想我們將結束本季的投資者會議。

Thank you very much for joining us and I hope we will see you next quarter.

非常感謝您加入我們，希望我們下個季度再見。