台積電 ADR (TSM) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's first quarter 2013 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2013 年第一季財報會議及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

The event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

If you are joining us through the call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您透過呼叫加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's SVP and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們第一季的營運狀況，然後介紹本季的指導。

Afterwards TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang, will provide his general remarks and a couple of key messages.

隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表一般性演講和一些關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release you may download it now from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以立即從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

Before we begin I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

Thank you Elizabeth.

謝謝伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

Today my presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter 2013 and followed by the guidance for the second quarter.

今天我的演講將從 2013 年第一季的財務亮點開始，然後是第二季的指導。

Our first quarter revenue turned out better than guidance due to a more favorable exchange rate and stronger mobile demand, and TSMC's strong position in 28 nanometer.

由於更有利的匯率和更強勁的行動需求，以及台積電在 28 奈米領域的強勢地位，我們第一季的營收優於預期。

Compared to the previous quarter' first quarter revenue increased 1% to TWD133b.

與上一季相比，第一季營收成長了1%，達到新台幣133b。

On the margin side, gross margin was 45.8%, down 1.4 percentage points from the fourth quarter last year.

利潤率方面，毛利率為45.8%，較去年第四季下降1.4個百分點。

Higher capacity utilization and the NT dollar depreciation contributed to a favorable impact to our gross margin by 3 percentage points.

產能利用率提高和新台幣貶值對我們的毛利率產生了 3 個百分點的有利影響。

However, the inventory valuation adjustment on a quarter over quarter basis has impacted our gross margin by 4.4 percentage points.

然而，庫存估值環比調整對我們的毛利率造成了4.4個百分點的影響。

This is consistent with the accounting treatment under ROC GAAP number 10 as before.

這與先前 ROC GAAP 第 10 號下的會計處理一致。

First quarter operating margin was 33.5%, down 1.8 percentage point from the prior quarter due to higher operating expense for fab 15 capacity expansion for 28 nanometer.

第一季營運利潤率為 33.5%，季減 1.8 個百分點，原因是 15 號晶圓廠 28 奈米產能擴張的營運費用增加。

Non-operating items was a gain of TWD1.3b for this quarter, much better than the loss in the fourth quarter of 2012.

本季非經營項目收益新台幣1.3b，遠優於2012年第四季的虧損。

The difference is mainly due to the lack of impairment charges of TWD1.5b we took in the fourth quarter last year for certain invested companies.

差異主要是因為我們去年第四季沒有為某些被投資公司提列 TWD1.5b 的減損費用。

Also in the first quarter, we disposed a portion of the SMIC shares at a profit of TWD0.7b versus its value on our book.

同樣在第一季度，我們出售了部分中芯國際股票，相對於帳面價值，我們獲得了新台幣 0.7b 的利潤。

Overall, our EPS was TWD1.53.

整體而言，我們的 EPS 為新台幣 1.53。

ROE was 21.3%.

淨資產收益率為21.3%。

As you may have noticed, we are preparing financial statement in accordance with Taiwan IFRS starting this year.

您可能已經注意到，我們從今年開始按照台灣國際財務報告準則編制財務報表。

To illustrate the difference we prepared a comparison table under both ROC GAAP and the Taiwan IFRS using 2012 number as example.

為了說明差異，我們以 2012 年資料為例，根據中華民國公認會計原則和台灣國際財務報告準則準備了一個比較表。

I would like to highlight a few items here and you can find a more detailed explanation on TSMC website.

我想在這裡強調一些項目，您可以在台積電網站上找到更詳細的解釋。

On the profit side, TIFRS require us to reclassify some items among operating and non-operating items.

在利潤方面，TIFRS 要求我們將一些項目重新分類為經營項目和非經營項目。

For example, technical service income was reclassified from non-operating items to revenue.

例如，技術服務收入從非經營性項目重新分類為收入。

Also, loss of impairment of idle assets will be reclassified from non-operating expenses to other operating expenses etc.

此外，閒置資產減損損失將從營業外支出重新分類至其他業務支出等。

and etc.

等等。

The overall impact on our net income is small increase of TWD0.2b in profitability, which is less than 0.1% of our total net income.

對我們淨利潤的整體影響是獲利能力小幅增加 TWD0.2b，不到我們總淨利的 0.1%。

On the balance sheet the key changes for TSMC is the reclassification of sales returned allowance from reduction in accounts receivable to other current liabilities.

在資產負債表上，台積電的主要變化是將銷售退回備抵從應收帳款減少重新分類為其他流動負債。

Therefore the balance of both accounts receivables and other current liabilities increased.

因此應收帳款及其他流動負債餘額均增加。

This leads to a four-day increase in accounts receivable turnover day in calculation.

這導致應收帳款週轉天數的計算增加了四天。

Now let's move back to revenue analysis for the first quarter of 2013.

現在讓我們回到2013年第一季的營收分析。

Overall revenue from all applications showed better than seasonal quarter-over-quarter changes in the first quarter.

第一季所有應用程式的整體收入均優於季節性季度環比變化。

As mobile product IC designers accelerated preparation for new product launches, demand for communication-related applications showed the strongest growth of 4%.

隨著行動產品IC設計人員加快新產品發布的準備，通訊相關應用的需求出現了4%的最強勁成長。

Computer increased by 3%, consumer increased by 3% and industrial revenue declined by 2% in the first quarter.

一季電腦收入成長3%，消費收入成長3%，工業收入下降2%。

If we look at the revenue by technology, demand for our 28-nanometer technology remained robust.

如果我們按技術查看收入，對 28 奈米技術的需求仍然強勁。

28-nanometer contribution to total wafer revenue further increased from 22% in the fourth quarter to 24% in the first quarter of 2013.

28奈米對晶圓總收入的貢獻進一步從第四季的22%上升到2013年第一季的24%。

With solid demand and a smooth ramp, we expect 28-nanometer revenue continue to grow each quarter and we are confident the 28-nanometer wafer revenue for 2013 will triple that of 2012.

憑藉強勁的需求和平穩的成長，我們預計 28 奈米晶圓營收每季都會持續成長，我們有信心 2013 年 28 奈米晶圓營收將是 2012 年的三倍。

Overall advanced technologies, defined as 40-nanometer and below, accounted for 47% of our total wafer revenue, up from 44% in the fourth quarter last year.

整體先進技術（定義為 40 奈米及以下）占我們晶圓總收入的 47%，高於去年第四季的 44%。

Let me make a few comments on the balance sheet.

讓我對資產負債表發表一些評論。

Our cash and marketable securities increased TWD38b to TWD185b (sic -- see presentation "TWD189.26b") at the end of the first quarter mainly due to proceeds from the issuance of corporate bonds.

我們的現金和有價證券在第一季末增加了 TWD38b 至 TWD185b（原文如此 - 參見簡報「TWD189.26b」），主要是由於發行公司債的收益。

By the same token our long-term interest bearing debt increased TWD45b to TWD127b.

同樣的道理，我們的長期帶息債務增加了新台幣 45b 至新台幣 127b。

Looking at financial ratio, our accounts receivable turnover days remain flat at 43 days and days of inventory increased by one day to 51 days.

從財務比率來看，我們的應收帳款週轉天數持平於 43 天，庫存天數增加 1 天至 51 天。

On the cash flow side, in the first quarter we generated TWD74b from operations, invested TWD80b in capital expenditure and had raised TWD45b through corporate bonds.

在現金流方面，第一季我們透過營運產生了新台幣 74 億新台幣，將 80 億新台幣投資於資本支出，並透過公司債籌集了新台幣 45 億新台幣。

In the US dollar terms our capital expenditure was $2.7b in the first quarter.

以美元計算，我們第一季的資本支出為 2.7 億美元。

We expect the total CapEx to be front-end loaded for the whole year.

我們預計全年總資本支出將由前端承擔。

Overall our cash balance increased TWD43b to TWD186b.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額增加了 TWD43b 至 TWD186b。

Free cash flow ended at negative TWD7b mainly due to higher capital expenditure in the first quarter.

自由現金流最終為負 TWD7b，主要是因為第一季資本支出增加。

Lastly let me make a few comments on our capacity plan.

最後讓我對我們的產能計畫發表一些評論。

In the first quarter due to fewer working days and scheduled maintenance our total capacity decreased 1% to around 3.9m 8-inch equivalent wafers.

第一季度，由於工作日減少和定期維護，我們的總產能下降了 1%，至約 390 萬片 8 吋等效晶圓。

While we continue to add a 28-nanometer capacity, our second quarter capacity will pick up to a level close to 4m wafers, up 3% from the first quarter.

在我們持續增加28奈米產能的同時，我們第二季的產能將回升到接近400萬片晶圓的水平，比第一季成長3%。

For the full year our 12-inch capacity is expected to increase 17% in 2013 contributed by the ramp of fab 15, and our total annual capacity will increase 11% year over year to reach around 16.5m wafers.

預計2013年全年12吋產能將在15號晶圓廠產能提升的帶動下成長17%，全年總產能將年增11%，達到約1,650萬片晶圓。

I have finished my financial reports.

我已經完成了財務報告。

Now let me provide you our second quarter guidance.

現在讓我向您提供我們的第二季指導。

Based on our current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of 29.82, we expect our revenue to be between TWD154 and TWD156b, representing about 17% Q-over-Q growth.

根據我們目前的業務預期和 29.82 的預測匯率，我們預計我們的營收將在 TWD154 至 TWD156b 之間，季增約 17%。

In terms of margins we expect the second quarter gross margin to be between 47.5% and 49.5%, and operating margin to be between 35% and 37%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第二季毛利率將在47.5%至49.5%之間，營業利潤率將在35%至37%之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to our Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang for his remarks.

讓我請主席兼執行長張忠謀博士發表演說。

I would like to make some comments on industry outlook and on 1Q and 2Q, and then on our technology development 28, 20 and 16, as well as specialty technologies.

我想就產業前景以及第一季和第二季發表一些評論，然後是我們的技術發展28、20和16，以及專業技術。

And finally I will talk about this year's capital expenditures.

最後我會談談今年的資本支出。

For the industry outlook, for the full year 2013 our estimate of global GDP remains unchanged at about 2.6% growth.

對於產業前景，我們對 2013 年全年全球 GDP 成長的預測維持在 2.6% 左右不變。

The SC market we now estimate to be about 4% growth.

我們現在估計 SC 市場將成長 4% 左右。

That is up from the 3% earlier estimate due mainly to memory price recovery.

這比之前預估的 3% 有所上升，主要是由於記憶體價格回升。

Fabless industry, our estimate of fabless industry growth remains unchanged at 9%.

無晶圓廠產業，我們對無晶圓廠產業成長的預測維持在 9% 不變。

Foundry industry we now estimate to grow at 10%.

我們現在預計鑄造業將成長 10%。

That is up from 7% mainly due to the raise of our own estimate of our growth.

這比 7% 有所上升，主要是由於我們提高了自己對成長的估計。

TSMC growth will be much higher than the foundry industry growth of 10% that I have mentioned earlier.

台積電的成長將遠高於我之前提到的代工產業10%的成長。

Our inventory, supply chain inventory at the end of 4Q was close to seasonal, was reasonably balanced, close to the seasonal norm.

我們的庫存，第四季末的供應鏈庫存接近季節性，合理平衡，接近季節性常態。

And we expect it to remain slightly above seasonal in all four quarters this year, and basically we feel that reasonably it will be reasonably balanced every quarter this year.

我們預計今年四個季度都將保持略高於季節性的水平，基本上我們認為今年每季都會合理平衡。

On 1Q and 2Q of 2013 we are pleased with our first quarter performance and we are encouraged by the business prospects of the second quarter, as Laura has already guided.

2013 年第一季和第二季度，我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，並且對第二季的業務前景感到鼓舞，正如 Laura 所指導的那樣。

Both quarters are stronger than seasonal.

這兩個季度都強於季節性。

We attribute our strength to, first, mobile-related applications whose demand remain strong, and TSMC's strong position in 28-nanometer technology, which has become widely adopted by many mobile-related applications.

我們將我們的優勢歸因於，首先，行動相關應用的需求依然強勁，以及台積電在28奈米技術方面的強勢地位，該技術已被許多行動相關應用廣泛採用。

Now a few comments on 28 nanometer.

現在對28奈米進行一些評論。

I said before and I say again, our capacity and output continue to ramp up aggressively.

我之前說過，現在我再說一遍，我們的產能和產量持續大幅成長。

Both our production and our revenue of 28-nanometer wafers in 2013 will triple the production and revenue of 2012.

2013年我們28奈米晶圓的產量和收入將是2012年產量和收入的三倍。

This year our volume and our revenue will triple that of 2012.

今年我們的銷售量和收入將是 2012 年的三倍。

Our high-K metal gate version will overtake the oxynitride version in third quarter of this year.

我們的高 K 金屬閘極版本將在今年第三季取代氮氧化物版本。

Market share this year is expected to remain very high due to, first, we have better yields on 28 LP, which is the oxynitride version.

預計今年的市佔率將保持非常高，因為首先，我們的 28 LP（氮氧化物版本）的產量更高。

We have better yields on the oxynitride version than competition.

我們的氮氧化物版本比競爭對手有更好的產量。

Second, our differentiated offering in high-K metal gate, namely we have gate-last versus competitions' gate-first, offers better performance for our customers' products.

其次，我們在高 K 金屬閘極方面的差異化產品，即我們的後閘極與競爭對手的先閘極相比，為我們客戶的產品提供了更好的性能。

So two reasons why our market share will remain very high.

因此，我們的市場佔有率將保持很高的水平有兩個原因。

First, the 28 LP, the oxynitride version, has better yields than competition.

首先，28 LP（氮氧化物版本）的產量比競爭對手更高。

Second, our high-K metal gate version is different from what the competitors may offer because we are gate-last and theirs is gate-first, and our gate last version, our gate last is better performance for our customers' products.

其次，我們的高K 金屬閘極版本與競爭對手可能提供的版本不同，因為我們是後閘極，而他們的是先閘極，而我們的後閘極版本，我們的後閘極版本為我們客戶的產品提供了更好的性能。

Lastly, I have been asked a couple of times how our gross margin is doing on the 28 nanometers and I'm happy to report that the gross margin of 28 nanometer will be slightly higher than corporate average this year, the whole year, every quarter.

最後，我多次被問到我們在 28 奈米上的毛利率表現如何，我很高興地告訴大家，今年、全年、每季 28 奈米的毛利率將略高於企業平均。

A few comments on 20 nanometers and 16 nanometers FinFET.

關於 20 奈米和 16 奈米 FinFET 的一些評論。

On 20 nanometers risk production has started in the first quarter, that is last quarter.

20奈米的風險生產已於第一季（即上季）開始。

Engagements with the customers are on schedule, have scheduled 20 product tape-outs for this year from multiple customers.

與客戶的合作如期進行，今年已安排多個客戶提供 20 個產品流片。

Many of these tape-outs will drive high production volume.

其中許多流片將推動高產量。

And yield progress on 20-nanometer is on track.

20 奈米的良率進展已步入正軌。

On the 16-nanometer FinFET, we have said several times that this is a change in cadence in our new technology introduction.

關於16奈米FinFET，我們已經多次說過，這是我們新技術推出節奏的變化。

It used to be two years per node and in the case of 16 nanometer FinFET it follows just one year, by one year, the 20 SoC.

過去，每個節點需要兩年，而對於 16 奈米 FinFET，它只需一年，20 SoC 則需要一年。

So it is a quickening of cadence and that is because of market requests, market requirements, customers' requests.

所以這是節奏的加快，這是因為市場要求、市場要求、顧客要求。

Compared with 20 nanometers, the 16 FinFET has same metal pitch but tighter front-end FinFET design rules.

與20奈米相比，16 FinFET具有相同的金屬間距，但前端FinFET設計規則更嚴格。

The reason we can introduce it so quickly after the 20 is because the 16 FinFET can leverage the learning from 20 nanometers in interconnect and in double patterning.

我們之所以能在 20 奈米之後如此迅速地推出它，是因為 16 FinFET 可以利用從 20 奈米互連和雙圖案化中學到的知識。

The yield improvement of the 16 FinFET is ahead of schedule.

16 FinFET的良率提升提前於計畫。

It is on track to begin volume production within one year from 20 nanometers.

20奈米預計在一年內開始量產。

Now for 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer as a whole, I expect that they will be in combination a bigger node than the 28 nanometers.

現在對於20奈米和16奈米作為一個整體，我預計它們組合起來將是一個比28奈米更大的節點。

A few words on the competitiveness of our 20 nanometer and our 16 nanometer.

簡單說一下我們20奈米和16奈米的競爭力。

I have three points to make.

我有三點要說。

First, TSMC technology is based on an open environment, the open innovation platform, OIP.

首先，台積電的技術是基於開放環境、開放創新平台OIP。

That open platform facilitates and invites innovations from all participants in the OIP.

此開放平台促進並邀請 OIP 所有參與者的創新。

The participants include of course, most importantly, our customers, and they also include design ecosystem partners.

參與者當然包括最重要的我們的客戶，也包括設計生態系統的合作夥伴。

Of course TSMC itself is a very important part of this open platform.

當然台積電本身就是這個開放平台非常重要的一環。

The second point I want to make is that we have been collaborating with our customers and ecosystem partners for more than 15 years.

我想說的第二點是，我們與客戶和生態系統合作夥伴的合作超過 15 年。

Through the ecosystem/OIP, TSMC's technology has been collaboratively optimized for SoC development.

透過生態系統/OIP，台積電的技術針對 SoC 開發進行了協作最佳化。

With our customers and we have been optimizing our technology for SoC development.

我們一直與客戶一起優化我們的 SoC 開發技術。

And then together with our customers' established power-efficient ARM-based architecture and comprehensive mobile IPs with our ecosystem partners, we are confident that our customer products with TSMC's 20 and 16 nanometer technologies are very, very competitive.

再加上我們的客戶與我們的生態系統合作夥伴建立的基於 ARM 的高能源效率架構和全面的行動 IP，我們相信採用台積電 20 和 16 奈米技術的客戶產品非常非常有競爭力。

I think that is already proven by our customers' enthusiasm of our technologies 20 and 16.

我認為客戶對我們的技術 20 和 16 的熱情已經證明了這一點。

Now a few words on specialty technologies.

現在談談專業技術。

We don't want to neglect them at all.

我們根本不想忽視他們。

We talk about advanced technologies most of the time, but the specialty technologies are growing even faster and they already account for a very significant volume in our revenue.

我們大部分時間都在談論先進技術，但專業技術的成長速度甚至更快，它們已經在我們的收入中佔據了非常大的份額。

And I'm talking about finger-printing technologies, motion sensors technologies and products, near-field communication products, audio codec, power management, touch sensors, and an old friend but still a very exciting technology, that is CIS, the imaging products, cameras.

我談論的是指紋技術、運動感應技術和產品、近場通訊產品、音訊編解碼器、電源管理、觸控感應器，還有一個老朋友但仍然非常令人興奮的技術，那就是CIS，即成像產品、相機。

These enhanced requirements for human-machine interfaces will fuel the growth of TSMC's specialty technology businesses in mixed signal MEMS, embedded Flash and high voltage, and most of those technologies are now embedded in our less-than-leading-edge technologies, 40, 65 nanometer, 90 nanometer, 0.18, 0.15 etc., etc.

對人機介面的這些增強的要求將推動台積電在混合訊號MEMS、嵌入式快閃記憶體和高電壓方面的專業技術業務的成長，而這些技術中的大多數現在都嵌入到我們不太領先的技術中， 40, 65奈米、90奈米、0.18、0.15等

Finally, CapEx, capital expenditures.

最後是CapEx，資本支出。

CapEx will be between USD9.5b and USD10b this year.

今年資本支出將在 9.5 美元至 10 美元之間。

This is an increase from the last guidance we gave which was about TWD9b.

這比我們上次給出的大約 TWD9b 的指導有所增加。

Basically we have stepped up the preparation for the ramp up of 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer.

基本上我們已經加緊了20納米和16納米的爬坡準備。

We have pulled some of the capital in because we want to be -- to have as high yields as possible when we do start ramp up, volume ramp up.

我們已經投入了一些資本，因為我們希望在我們開始增加產量、增加產量時能獲得盡可能高的收益率。

And of course we are continuing to build up 28-nanometer capacity.

當然，我們正在繼續擴大 28 奈米產能。

Therefore approximately 90% of the capital expenditures are for 28 nanometer, 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, both building facility and equipment.

因此，大約90%的資本支出用於28奈米、20奈米、16奈米，包括建築設施和設備。

Another 5% is for R&D and that is mainly for 10 nanometer, 7 nanometer, etc.

另外5%用於研發，主要是10奈米、7奈米等。

And 2% for specialty equipment and that's on the specialty technologies that I just mentioned.

2% 用於特種設備，這是我剛才提到的特殊技術。

And 1% for the land in Chunan which we announced a few months ago.

還有我們幾個月前宣布的淳安土地的1%。

Basically I feel that the Company is entering or has already entered a new growth period.

基本上我感覺公司正在進入或已經進入一個新的成長期。

We started to invest in this growth period even at the depth of the recession in early 2009.

即使在 2009 年初經濟衰退最嚴重的時候，我們也開始在這個成長時期進行投資。

And we have been investing in increased R&D, in increased capital for several years now and we have begun to see the benefits.

幾年來，我們一直在增加研發和資本方面的投資，我們已經開始看到好處。

And we have been scaling new heights in revenue for four consecutive years, including this year and we have scaled new heights in net income for three of the last four consecutive year.

我們的收入已經連續四年創下新高，包括今年，過去四年我們連續三年淨利創下新高。

And the best part is that the best is yet to come.

最棒的是，最好的還在後頭。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將問題限制在兩個以內，以便所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將從現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese I will translate it to English before our CEO or CFO answers your questions.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的執行長或財務長回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call if you would like to ask a question please press the star and the one on your telephone keypad now.

對於通話中的人員，如果您想提問，請立即按下星號和電話鍵盤上的星號。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行處理。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue please press the pound or the hash key.

如果任何時候您想將自己從提問佇列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在我們開始問答環節。

Okay.

好的。

Our first question comes from the floor, and it would be from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

我們的第一個問題來自與會者，來自高盛的 Donald Lu。

Chairman, Lora and Elizabeth, (spoken in foreign language), or maybe I should use English here.

主席，洛拉和伊麗莎白（用外語發言），或者我應該在這裡使用英語。

First, congratulations on the very good second quarter guidance that was -- right.

首先，恭喜第二季度非常好的指導，這是正確的。

(Inaudible -- microphone inaccessible).

（聽不清楚－麥克風無法存取）。

First question is on the 20 nanometer.

第一個問題是關於20奈米的。

Some investors and also your customers have been talking about the cost per transistor starts to go up after double-patterning etc., etc.

一些投資者和您的客戶一直在談論雙圖案化等之後每個電晶體的成本開始上升。

And what's your view on this impact to the supply chain, your profitability and your customers' profitability, and the adoption of technology etc?

您對這種對供應鏈、您的盈利能力和客戶的盈利能力以及技術採用等的影響有何看法？

And my second question is on TSMC's -- just want to hear from you again the return and the profitability for future nodes, 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer.

我的第二個問題是關於台積電的——只是想再次聽取您的意見，了解未來節點（20 奈米和 16 奈米）的回報和盈利能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Transistor cost, 20-nanometer transistor cost, yes, the slope of decrease of transistor cost has been less in, between 28 and 20 the decrease in transistor cost is less than the decrease in transistor cost between 40 and 28.

電晶體成本，20奈米電晶體成本，是的，電晶體成本下降的斜率較小，在28奈米到20奈米之間，電晶體成本的下降小於40奈米到28奈米之間的電晶體成本下降。

But now the important point is that the value we offer in any new node is, I think, gradually shifting or has already gradually shifted from just pure lower transistor cost to the performance aspects, performance speed and the power.

但現在重要的一點是，我認為我們在任何新節點中提供的價值正在逐漸轉變或已經逐漸從純粹的較低晶體管成本轉向性能方面、性能速度和功率。

And of course in addition to speed and power we also offer value in quick access to market and services, and those things.

當然，除了速度和力量之外，我們還提供快速進入市場和服務等方面的價值。

So I think that there are opportunities for regaining the slope, the decrease of transistor cost.

所以我認為有機會恢復斜率，降低晶體管成本。

There are opportunities for regaining it.

有機會重新獲得它。

For instance, I think that the recent developments in EUV I think are encouraging and they do have -- they will have an important role to play if those developments continue to progress.

例如，我認為 EUV 最近的發展令人鼓舞，而且確實如此——如果這些發展繼續取得進展，它們將發揮重要作用。

Now on the other hand the value that the new node offers in performance and power is exactly what our customers are looking for.

另一方面，新節點在效能和功耗方面提供的價值正是我們的客戶所尋求的。

And I think that, yes, the transistor cost reduction has not been so great, but I think the acceptance of the 20-nanometer SoC will prove -- and I'm certain of the acceptance.

我認為，是的，晶體管成本的降低並沒有那麼大，但我認為 20 奈米 SoC 的接受度將會得到證明——而且我確信這種接受度。

I think the acceptance will prove that the customers are still getting value.

我認為接受將證明客戶仍然獲得價值。

As to the return to profitability of 20 and 16, I'm not prepared to offer you a quantitative measure of the return to profitability.

至於20和16的獲利回報率，我不准備向您提供盈利回報率的定量衡量標準。

But I will repeat our goals in this five-year period, starting 2012 to 2017 I guess.

但我會重申我們在這五年期間的目標，我想是從 2012 年到 2017 年。

That is 10% per year compounded annual growth in profit before tax and return on equity of 20% or higher.

也就是說，稅前利潤每年複合成長 10%，股本回報率達到 20% 或更高。

And those targets I announced two years ago, I believe, and we remain fully committed to those.

我相信，我兩年前宣布的這些目標，我們仍然完全致力於實現這些目標。

Okay.

好的。

Next question also comes from the floor from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

下一個問題也是來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Mr. Chairman, the Q1 and Q2 sales momentum is stronger than seasonal ,so do you think that the inventory risk will be rising by the end of Q2 or do you think the demand can digest most of the output?

主席先生，第一季和第二季的銷售動能強於季節性，那麼您認為第二季末庫存風險會上升還是需求能夠消化大部分產量？

Inventory, whether or not inventory risk is going up, whether the supply chain can digest the inventory this year.

庫存，庫存風險是否上升，供應鏈能否消化今年的庫存。

Our inventory estimate is that it will only be slightly above seasonal in the next few quarters.

我們的庫存估計是，未來幾季的庫存量只會略高於季節性。

Is that the question?

這是問題嗎？

But can you give some color for Q2 outlook by segments?

但您能否按細分市場對第二季的前景進行一些說明？

Pardon me?

對不起？

Q2 outlook by segments.

按細分市場劃分的第二季展望。

The outlook of different applications in Q2 segment by segment.

第二季不同應用的細分領域展望。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe Lora?

也許洛拉？

I can comment.

我可以評論。

Okay.

好的。

I just announced the guidance that we will grow 17%.

我剛剛宣布了我們將增長 17% 的指導。

For us every segment will grow across the board, with the communication will grow the most, mainly because the mobile devices.

對我們來說，每個細分市場都將全面成長，其中通訊成長最快，主要是因為行動裝置。

Alright.

好吧。

Okay.

好的。

The second question is -- I'm sorry.

第二個問題是──對不起。

This is your third so we have to go to another one, okay?

這是你的第三次了，所以我們必須去另一次，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Next question also comes from the floor and that will be from Citibank's Roland Shu.

下一個問題也來自花旗銀行的 Roland Shu。

Hi Chairman.

主席您好。

First question is, the ARM-based application processor has been widely adopted on the mobile applications so can we get your view about how do you think about the ARM-based application processor on PC, notebook or even server?

第一個問題是，基於ARM的應用處理器已經在行動應用中得到了廣泛的採用，那麼您如何看待基於ARM的應用處理器在PC、筆記型電腦甚至伺服器上的應用？

Do you think that will happen very soon or that will maybe take longer than expected time?

您認為這會很快發生還是可能需要比預期更長的時間？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Whether or not ARM-based processors can enter into the PC space, that's your question.

基於 ARM 的處理器能否進入 PC 領域，這是你的問題。

I think that certainly it's, I think it's a possibility and I think in fact, well, it's a possibility, but that's not the first thing that comes to mind.

我認為這當然是，我認為這是一種可能性，而且我認為事實上，嗯，這是一種可能性，但這不是我首先想到的。

I think the first thing that comes to mind is servers.

我想大家第一個想到的就是伺服器。

And so I think some of our customers have already -- are already targeting that.

因此，我認為我們的一些客戶已經瞄準了這一目標。

Some of our customers are already targeting that.

我們的一些客戶已經瞄準了這個目標。

So before this adoption be ramp up what kind of barrier or what kind of bottleneck technology needs to be resolved and how TSMC can help to put this kind of conversion going forward?

那麼，在這種採用之前，需要解決什麼樣的障礙或什麼樣的瓶頸技術？

The what?

什麼？

So your question is what kind of bottleneck that exists from our current customers' offering that if they want to go to PC, right, and what TSMC can do to help them debottleneck?

所以你的問題是，如果我們目前的客戶想要轉向 PC，那麼他們的產品存在什麼樣的瓶頸，對嗎？

I don't think I can answer that question very well.

我想我不能很好地回答這個問題。

I think it's something that I can't answer that question very well at this point.

我認為目前我還不能很好地回答這個問題。

You have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the follow-up is I think for recently TSMC just had the news release talking about tape-out with ARM, Cortex-A57 for 64-bit application processors.

我認為接下來的事情是，我認為最近台積電剛剛發布了新聞稿，討論了用於 64 位元應用處理器的 ARM、Cortex-A57 的串流片。

So this is going to tape-out on TSMC's 16-nanometer FinFET technology.

因此，這將是台積電 16 奈米 FinFET 技術的流片。

So my question is except for this Cortex-A57 16-nanometer FinFET, do you have any 64-bit ARM application processor on 20-nanometer or 28-nanometer technology?

所以我的問題是，除了這個 Cortex-A57 16 奈米 FinFET 之外，你們還有採用 20 奈米或 28 奈米技術的 64 位元 ARM 應用處理器嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just as I said -- I think the question is whether we have any 64-bit applications.

正如我所說，我認為問題是我們是否有 64 位元應用程式。

Just as I said, I think some of our customers are targeting the server segment.

正如我所說，我認為我們的一些客戶正在瞄準伺服器領域。

So that's for the ARM, for the ARM architecture, so yes.

這是針對 ARM、針對 ARM 架構的，所以是的。

Okay.

好的。

I think we should go to the call for the next question.

我認為我們應該參加下一個問題的電話會議。

So operator, could you proceed to the first caller on the line?

那麼接線員，您可以接聽線路上的第一個來電者嗎？

Dan Heyler for Bank of America - Merrill Lynch.

美國銀行-美林證券的丹‧海勒 (Dan Heyler)。

Please ask your question.

請提出你的問題。

Thank you very much Elizabeth and congratulations Chairman for your highly successful growth strategy and execution on your technology.

非常感謝伊麗莎白，並祝賀主席非常成功的成長策略和技術執行。

I had two quick questions.

我有兩個簡單的問題。

First, Dr. Chang, in terms of the cadence, where you've noted a pick up especially on 16 nanometer and your very strong growth in mobile processing and SoCs, what does this mean for the N-minus-1 fabs?

首先，Chang 博士，就節奏而言，您注意到特別是 16 奈米技術的回升以及移動處理和 SoC 方面的強勁增長，這對 N-minus-1 晶圓廠意味著什麼？

You're noting significant growth in your specialty processors.

您注意到專業處理器的顯著成長。

Are we seeing a cadence pick up in the mid-tier technologies such that you'll be able to keep the N-minus-1 fabs relatively full going forward?

我們是否看到中層技術的節奏加快，以便您能夠保持 N-1 晶圓廠相對滿載運轉？

So, Dan, your question is in leading-edge technology the cadence has become faster and therefore your question is whether or not the same cadence become faster for the N minus 1 technologies?

所以，Dan，你的問題是在前沿技術中節奏變得更快，因此你的問題是同樣的節奏對於 N-1 技術是否會變得更快？

Correct.

正確的。

For the N minus 1?

對於 N 減 1？

For the N minus 1, so one or two generations, the bigger nodes.

對於N減1，這樣一兩代，節點就越大。

So 20 nanometer and then 28 is N minus 1, 40 is N minus 2.

所以20奈米然後28是N減1，40是N減2。

Cadence, in the past it was two years.

節奏，過去是兩年。

That's history already.

那已經是歷史了。

So how does that become faster?

那麼要如何變得更快呢？

I don't understand.

我不明白。

Yes.

是的。

So that's exactly my question.

這正是我的問題。

So I'm wondering if there will be an excess capacity in the middle end of your technologies with the leading-edge picking up and the mainstream technology remaining at two cadences.

所以我想知道，隨著前沿技術的回升和主流技術保持在兩個節奏，你們的技術中端是否會出現產能過剩。

The specialty technologies, will they migrate faster than they used to?

專業技術的遷移速度會比以前更快嗎？

How do you keep --

你如何保持——

Right now it looks like some of these specialty technologies are skipping nodes.

目前看來，其中一些專業技術正在跳過節點。

They're migrating from 0.18 to 90 perhaps rather than to 0.13 first and then 90, but they are going from 0.18 to 90 directly, and they are going from 0.13 to 65 directly, skipping a node.

他們可能從 0.18 遷移到 90，而不是先遷移到 0.13，然後遷移到 90，但它們會直接從 0.18 遷移到 90，並且直接從 0.13 遷移到 65，跳過一個節點。

That's happening.

這就是正在發生的事情。

I don't know whether that's what you're asking or not.

我不知道你問的是不是這個。

Is it?

是嗎？

I'm -- the crux of the question is, how do you keep your mainstream fabs full?

我——問題的關鍵是，如何讓主流晶圓廠保持滿載運轉？

When everything is moving at the same pace you can keep your mainstream fabs full.

當一切都以相同的速度進展時，您可以讓主流晶圓廠保持滿載運轉。

So will there be a challenge to keeping your middle-end technology fabs full and how do you address it?

那麼，保持中階技術工廠滿載運轉是否會面臨挑戰，您將如何應對？

I think you have come very close to the heart of my management problem, alright?

我想你已經非常接近我的管理問題的核心了，好嗎？

Keeping the mainstream fabs full is almost as important as advancing the leading edge.

保持主流晶圓廠的滿載幾乎與推進領先優勢同樣重要。

And I understand your question, but if I tell you the answers I will be telling these to my competitors also so I'm not going to do that.

我理解你的問題，但如果我告訴你答案，我也會把這些告訴我的競爭對手，所以我不會這麼做。

But basically --

但基本上——

No, we don't want you to do that either, so.

不，我們也不希望你這樣做，所以。

Basically we can only guess.

基本上我們只能猜測。

Why do I talk about the specialty technologies?

為什麼我要講專業技術？

The specialty technologies will keep the mainstream fabs full hopefully.

專業技術可望讓主流晶圓廠保持滿載運轉。

Hopefully.

希望。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

So, Dan, you don't have the second question, right?

那麼，丹，你沒有第二個問題了，對吧？

Okay.

好的。

Alright.

好吧。

So then we come back to the floor.

然後我們回到地板上。

The next question comes from the floor of Barclays, Andrew Lu.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lu。

Hi Dr. Morris Chang and Lora.

嗨，Morris Chang 博士和 Lora。

Hi Andrew.

嗨安德魯。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

Last time you mentioned 20 nanometer in next year revenue will be larger than 28 last year.

上次你提到明年20奈米的營收會比去年的28大。

How about the percentage in each quarter, which means the total percentage revenue will be higher compared to year 2012?

每個季度的百分比怎麼樣，這意味著總收入百分比會比2012年更高？

For example, last year first quarter percentage 28 is about 5% but 22% by Q4.

例如，去年第一季 28 的比例約為 5%，但到第四季已達到 22%。

I'm not going to go into those details, but I repeat, I reiterate, I stand by what I said last time, that is that the volume of, production volume upward of 20 nanometers next year will be greater than 28 in 2012.

我不打算詳細討論這些細節，但我重複，我重申，我堅持我上次所說的，那就是明年20奈米以上的產量將大於2012年的28奈米。

That I stand by.

我站在一邊。

But as to this percentage and so on ---

但至於這個百分比等等——

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

My second question, earlier you also mentioned migrate to 16-nanometer FinFET will be faster than the normal upgrade cycle about two years from 20 to 16.

我的第二個問題，您之前也提到遷移到 16 奈米 FinFET 將比從 20 奈米到 16 奈米的正常升級週期快兩年左右。

How about from 16 to 10?

從 16 到 10 怎麼樣？

No.

不。

It's going to be the same old slow cadence, two years.

兩年來，這將是同樣的緩慢節奏。

Back to two years.

時間回到兩年前。

Won't be longer.

不會再長了

Thank you.

謝謝。

Back to two years, yes.

回到兩年前，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Next question comes from the floor of Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wanted to go back to the second quarter guidance.

希望回到第二季的指引。

It's well above most of the industry.

它遠高於大多數行業。

Last quarter I think you suggested first quarter was stronger so it set up a higher base.

上個季度，我認為您建議第一季表現強勁，因此建立了更高的基數。

So maybe what's driving the increased optimism, whether it's --

所以也許是什麼推動了樂觀情緒的成長，無論是——

Pleasantly I found myself to be mistaken.

令人高興的是我發現自己錯了。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, three months ago I thought the higher base --- well, in fact was even six months ago.

是的，三個月前我認為更高的基數——嗯，事實上甚至是六個月前。

Yes, six months ago I thought the higher base of the first quarter would make a significant growth in the second quarter very difficult, but pleasantly I found myself to be too pessimistic.

是的，六個月前我認為第一季的較高基數將使第二季的大幅成長變得非常困難，但令人高興的是我發現自己太悲觀了。

Maybe to follow on that, what drove that change where now you think you're mistaken from your prior view?

也許接下來，是什麼推動了這個變化，現在你認為你之前的觀點是錯的？

Was it market share gains or you saw incremental market momentum?

是市場佔有率的成長還是您看到了增量的市場動力？

And do you think sustainability into second half where the last couple of years we saw a bit of dip after a strong first half?

您認為下半年的可持續性嗎？

It is basically mobile products and market share gain.

基本上是行動產品和市場份額的成長。

The mobile products, actually there's one piece that I must mention which we did not foresee very clearly six months ago.

移動產品，實際上有一個我必須提到的部分，我們在六個月前並沒有非常清楚地預見到。

That's the China piece.

這就是中國的作品。

The China piece is playing a pretty important factor in my pleasant surprise.

中國的作品是讓我驚喜的一個非常重要的因素。

Okay.

好的。

The second question, on 450 millimeter, it's pretty far out but we're seeing Intel already spent about 2b to 3b on a 450-millimeter shell.

第二個問題，關於 450 毫米，它還很遙遠，但我們看到英特爾已經在 450 毫米外殼上花費了大約 2b 到 3b。

When do you expect --

你預計什麼時候——

On what?

什麼？

18-inch.

18吋。

450 millimeter, yes.

450毫米，是的。

Yes.

是的。

When is your expectation you'll have to start spending CapEx and do you have any view on fab location at this stage?

您預計什麼時候需要開始支出資本支出？

Have we started CapEx yet?

我們已經開始資本支出了嗎？

Not yet.

還沒有。

We have started spend R&D.

我們已經開始投入研發。

We have a small team working on 450, but not really to start on the meaningful way in CapEx.

我們有一個小團隊致力於 450，但並沒有真正以有意義的方式開始資本支出。

I think his question is when do we plan to start CapEx.

我認為他的問題是我們計劃何時開始資本支出。

I think our schedule is 2016, isn't it?

我想我們的行程是2016年，不是嗎？

In the 2016 timeframe, that will be the time we start to spend it, yes.

是的，在 2016 年的時間範圍內，這將是我們開始花費的時間。

So it's too early yet.

所以現在還為時過早。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Randy has a part that you also asked for the location, right?

蘭迪有一個角色你也問過地點，對吧？

Yes, if you could suggest where you're thinking about the fab location.

是的，如果您能建議您正在考慮的晶圓廠位置。

Actually we, didn't we mention when we acquired the Chunan land?

其實我們,當初收購楚南地的時候不是說過了嗎?

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

The land we acquired in Chunan is the R&D site for the 450, but not the production site.

我們在淳安徵地的土地是450的研發基地，不是生產基地。

Not the production site.

不是生產現場。

It's going to take some time so please -- things take a little longer now than they used to, each advanced node of technology and the increase in the wafer diameter.

這將需要一些時間，所以現在的情況比以前要長一些，每個先進的技術節點和晶圓直徑的增加。

You understand that I think that only three companies can afford to follow it through now, maybe three, certainly including us, and because these things take more time and require more resources, both money and people/talents.

你知道，我認為現在只有三家公司有能力堅持到底，也許三個，當然包括我們，因為這些事情需要更多的時間，需要更多的資源，包括金錢和人員/人才。

So the 450 certainly is going to take longer, the transition from 300 to 450 is certainly going to take longer than the transition from 200 to 300.

因此，450 肯定會需要更長的時間，從 300 到 450 的過渡肯定會比從 200 到 300 的過渡需要更長的時間。

Okay.

好的。

I think our next question, we should take our next question from the call.

我認為我們的下一個問題，我們應該從電話會議中提出下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

Mehdi Hosseini from SIG, please ask your question.

SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini，請提出您的問題。

Yes, thanks for taking my question and Dr. Chang, thanks for providing some color on the number of tape-outs for 20-nanometer.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題，感謝張博士，感謝您提供有關 20 奈米流片數量的一些資訊。

Could we -- could you elaborate on the types of customers or the number of customers or any color that you could provide on the 20 tape-outs that you have so far for 20 nanometer?

您能否詳細說明一下客戶類型或客戶數量，或者您可以在迄今為止 20 奈米的 20 個流片上提供的任何顏色？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Some color on the customers for 20 nanometer.

客戶上的一些顏色為20奈米。

Tape-outs.

流片。

They are --

他們是 -

The types of customers that add up to 20 tape-outs for 20 nanometer.

20奈米加起來多達20個流片的客戶類型。

The type of customers.

客戶類型。

Yes, I will certainly give you those.

是的，我一定會給你那些。

Now we have the, our traditional leading-edge users, the graphics, the FPGA customers.

現在我們有傳統的領先使用者、圖形、FPGA 客戶。

But recently we have added another class of customers.

但最近我們又增加了另一類客戶。

That's smartphones and tablets, the mobile product users.

那就是智慧型手機和平板電腦，也就是行動產品用戶。

So those are the main classes of customers that will provide the 20 tape-outs for our 20 SoC.

這些是將為我們的 20 SoC 提供 20 個串流片的主要客戶類別。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the follow-up I have is actually on 20 nanometer.

我的後續實際上是關於 20 奈米的。

Can you help me understand how important is interposer to the economics that 20 nanometer would provide, economics versus -- cost versus economics?

您能否幫助我了解中介層對於 20 奈米所提供的經濟性（經濟性與成本與經濟性）有多重要？

Does interposer really make a big difference to what your customers could get out of 20nm?

中介層真的會對您的客戶從 20 奈米技術中獲得的成果產生重大影響嗎？

That would be related to our CoWoS, right, the silicon interposer?

這可能與我們的CoWoS有關，對吧，矽中介層？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay.

好的。

What kind of benefit or importance that the interposer, the CoWoS, is to our customers at 20 nanometer compared to their cost.

與客戶的成本相比，20 奈米中介層 CoWoS 對我們的客戶有哪些好處或重要性？

It's, basically it's just, the answer is integration.

基本上，答案就是整合。

It's kind of a Moore's law on the circuit board.

這有點像電路板上的摩爾定律。

So the answer, packaging.

所以答案是，包裝。

Interposer is not really -- is that going to make a big difference to your customer as they evaluate cost and benefit?

Interposer 並不是真的——這會對您的客戶評估成本和效益產生重大影響嗎？

Is that going to be an important element when our customers evaluate the 20nm?

當我們的客戶評估 20 奈米時，這會是一個重要因素嗎？

I think so, yes.

我想是的，是的。

We already have customers using it, yes, and I believe they evaluate them that way, yes.

我們已經有客戶在使用它，是的，我相信他們會這樣評價它們，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright.

好吧。

Now we can come back to our floor.

現在我們可以回到我們的樓層了。

The next question comes from HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The foundry industry is roughly thought to be about 40b, 50b.

代工業粗略認為是40b、50b左右。

If it grows about 10% this year, that's equal to about what you're going to grow.

如果今年成長約 10%，則相當於您將要成長的量。

So what does this mean for the rest of the industry?

那麼這對產業其他公司意味著什麼呢？

Are we seeing the competition even get to become a second source opportunity at 28-nanometer this year or is there nothing left over for them?

我們會看到競爭對手甚至成為今年 28 奈米的第二個來源機會，或者他們已經沒有什麼了？

I have enough on my plate myself to worry about other foundries.

我自己的事情已經夠多了，不用再擔心其他鑄造廠了。

Maybe I should ask it this way.

也許我應該這樣問。

Are second sources starting to become viable enough that maybe they could cause some pricing pressures at some point in 28-nanometer this year?

第二來源是否開始變得足夠可行，以至於可能會在今年的某個時候對 28 奈米造成一些定價壓力？

Yes, there are second sources on 28 nanometers.

是的，還有關於 28 奈米的第二個來源。

But second sourcing is not simple in the foundry business.

但在代工業務中，二次採購並不簡單。

You have to work with, the customer has to work with the foundry for quite a long time before you can use the foundry.

你必須和代工廠合作，客戶必須和代工廠合作相當長的時間才能使用代工廠。

So this is not a commodity business.

所以這不是一個商品生意。

A commodity business you can set up second sources very quickly, but this business you can't.

在商品業務中，您可以非常快速地建立第二來源，但在該業務中則不能。

But still, having said all that, yes, there will be second sources.

但話雖如此，是的，還會有第二個來源。

But if you look at 28, and I know that the analyst reports, the press have been talking about second sources and competition for TSMC in the 28 node, but the fact of the matter is that this year, which is the second full year of production and ramp up for us, even this year we see relatively little competition and we will still have a very high market share of 28.

但如果你看看 28，我知道分析師報告，媒體一直在談論台積電在 28 節點的第二來源和競爭，但事實是，今年，這是第二個完整的一年對我們來說，即使今年我們看到的競爭相對較少，但我們仍然擁有28 的很高的市場份額。

And just as a quick follow-up question, you talked about 28 nanometer growing each quarter, you talked about tripling year on year.

正如一個快速的後續問題，您談到了每個季度 28 奈米的成長，您談到了同比增長兩倍。

You give capacity numbers for 300 millimeter and 200 millimeter.

您給出 300 毫米和 200 毫米的容量數字。

I'm curious, what is your 28-nanometer capacity today and what do you think it'll be at the end of the year, I don't know, on a monthly wafer starts per month, something like that?

我很好奇，你們今天的 28 奈米產能是多少，你們認為年底會是多少，我不知道，每月晶圓產量是多少，類似的事情？

Do we reveal that Lora?

我們要透露那個洛拉嗎？

We do not reveal that.

我們不透露這一點。

Alright then.

那麼好吧。

If you could just remind me what -- when is 20-nanometer revenues going to start being 1% or 2% or 3% of revenue?

您能否提醒我——20 奈米收入何時開始佔收入的 1%、2% 或 3%？

I think I forgot if you guys had commented.

我想我忘了你們是否發表了評論。

20 nanometer?

20奈米？

Yes.

是的。

20.

20.

When does it start?

什麼時候開始？

20 has not started.

20還沒開始。

I know.

我知道。

When do you expect?

你預計什麼時候？

When, first half next year.

什麼時候，明年上半年。

You're asking about 20?

你問的是20個左右嗎？

She answered already.

她已經回答了。

She said first half of next year.

她說明年上半年。

Ignore my first question.

請忽略我的第一個問題。

She's talking my second one.

她正在談論我的第二個。

You actually said a pretty low hurdle.

你實際上說的是一個相當低的障礙。

You said 2% or 3%, right?

你說的是2%還是3%，對吧？

The first few percent of 20 nanometer.

20奈米的前百分之幾。

What quarter will be the first few percentage of revenues will come from 20 nanometer for TSMC?

台積電的 20 奈米營收將在哪一個季度佔據最初的百分之幾？

What quarter will be the 2% quarter?

2% 的季度是哪一個季度？

Based on our current estimation it will be roughly second quarter 2014.

根據我們目前的估計，大約是 2014 年第二季。

2014, okay.

2014年，好吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright.

好吧。

Next question also comes from the floor and that will be from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題也來自與會者，來自摩根士丹利的查理陳（Charlie Chan）。

Thanks for taking our question.

感謝您提出我們的問題。

ASML yesterday commented that they are making good progress in EUV throughput.

ASML 昨天表示，他們在 EUV 產能方面取得了良好進展。

We're wondering if TSMC is seeing a similar trend and will the TSMC change the timing of adopting EUV technology?

我們想知道台積電是否也看到了類似的趨勢，台積電是否會改變採用EUV技術的時機？

And lastly can management give us a sense what is the cost comparison between EUV and the non-EUV, for example, at 16 nanometer?

最後，管理階層能否讓我們了解 EUV 和非 EUV（例如 16 奈米）之間的成本比較是多少？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Could you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So you're asking us to update on the EUV progress, right?

所以您要求我們更新 EUV 的進展，對嗎？

And then the second part is the cost of using EUV versus not using EUV at 10-nanometer or --

第二部分是在 10 奈米製程上使用 EUV 與不使用 EUV 的成本，或者—

Yes, maybe current nodes or the future nodes.

是的，也許是當前節點或未來節點。

Current nodes we don't use EUV.

當前節點我們不使用 EUV。

Future nodes it depends on when EUV will be available.

未來的節點取決於 EUV 何時可用。

But your question is comparing the cost with or without EUV.

但你的問題是比較使用或不使用 EUV 的成本。

Yes, because as to your timing of whether you want to advance your EUV adoption timing, if you want to use it for 16 nanometer then the competitive advantage should be at 16-nanometer.

是的，因為至於你是否要提前採用EUV的時機，如果你想用在16奈米，那麼競爭優勢應該在16奈米。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright.

好吧。

I think I understand the gist of the question now so let me try to answer it.

我想我現在明白了問題的要點，所以讓我試著回答一下。

Actually that question is probably more appropriate at the ASML analyst call, but let me try to answer what I can anyway.

事實上，這個問題在 ASML 分析師電話會議上可能更合適，但無論如何，讓我盡力回答。

EUV recently has had a breakthrough.

EUV最近取得了突破。

The wattage, the power source wattage, has now gone up to 40 watts.

瓦數，電源瓦數，現在已經上升到40瓦了。

Now that will allow a throughput of some 30 wafers, 30-something wafers per hour, which is still far from enough.

現在，這將允許大約 30 個晶圓的吞吐量，每小時 30 個左右的晶圓，這仍然遠遠不夠。

To make it economically desirable will need over 100 wafers per hour throughput and that will require a power source of more than 100 watts.

為了使其經濟上可行，每小時需要超過 100 片晶圓的吞吐量，並且需要超過 100 瓦的電源。

So there is still some distance to go, but ASML is optimistic and certainly we certainly cheer them on.

所以還有一段路要走，但 ASML 很樂觀，當然我們當然會為他們加油。

We are a stakeholder of ASML in more than one way.

我們在不只一種方面是 ASML 的利害關係人。

We are a financial investor.

我們是金融投資者。

We are also going to be a significant user and hopefully significant beneficiary of EUV.

我們也將成為 EUV 的重要用戶，並有望成為重要受益者。

So, but alright, so now when are we going to use it?

那麼，好吧，那麼現在我們什麼時候使用它呢？

I think if we are optimistic I would say that we will be using it at least partially in the 10 nanometer node.

我認為，如果我們樂觀的話，我會說我們將至少部分地在 10 奈米節點中使用它。

And anyway I think I have given as much answer as I can, yes.

不管怎樣，我想我已經給了盡可能多的答案，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will actually be coming from the line.

下一個問題實際上來自線路。

Operator, could you please proceed to the next caller on the line?

接線員，您可以接聽線路上的下一個來電者嗎？

Brett Simpson from Arete Research, please ask your question.

Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson，請提出您的問題。

Yes, thanks very much.

是的，非常感謝。

For Dr. Chang, just want to ask on Intel, we saw this Altera deal and there's rumors Cisco is going to follow.

張博士，我只想問一下英特爾的情況，我們看到了與 Altera 的這筆交易，並且有傳言稱思科將跟進。

And Intel in the call yesterday was talking about this foundry strategy where they're crawling today but they're going to walk and then run over the next couple of years.

英特爾在昨天的電話會議中談論了這種代工策略，他們今天正在爬行，但他們將在接下來的幾年裡步行然後跑步。

I'm just interested, how do you view Intel as a long-term competitor and how do you see their efforts to open their fabs to selective customers?

我只是感興趣，您如何看待英特爾作為長期競爭對手，以及您如何看待他們向選擇性客戶開放晶圓廠的努力？

I didn't hear the entire question.

我沒有聽到整個問題。

So your main question is how do we see Intel as a competitor?

所以你的主要問題是我們如何將英特爾視為競爭對手？

I think he also asked about --

我想他還問過──

That's right.

這是正確的。

Altera, didn't he?

阿爾泰拉，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So there's Altera, Intel as a competitor and?

那麼還有 Altera、Intel 作為競爭對手嗎？

No.

不。

The Altera going to Intel for 14 nanometer.

Altera 將轉向英特爾 14 奈米。

So Intel also announced the plan to come into foundry so how we see them as a competitor?

那麼英特爾也宣布了進軍晶圓代工的計劃，那麼我們如何看待他們作為競爭對手呢？

Okay.

好的。

Anyway, two parts of the question, one is Altera, the other is Intel, right?

不管怎樣，問題有兩個部分，一個是Altera，另一個是Intel，對吧？

Okay.

好的。

Altera, I very much regret Altera's decision to work on the 40 nanometer with Intel.

Altera，我對Altera決定與Intel合作開發40奈米感到非常遺憾。

Even though the financial impact is relatively small and Altera remains a major and valued partner of TSMC's, we have gained many customers in the last few years, but I really hate to lose even a part of an old one.

儘管財務影響相對較小，而且 Altera 仍然是台積電的主要且有價值的合作夥伴，但我們在過去幾年中獲得了許多客戶，但我真的不願意失去哪怕是一部分老客戶。

We want them all really.

我們真的想要它們。

I regret it.

我後悔了。

And because of this we have thoroughly critiqued ourselves.

也因為如此，我們徹底地批判了自己。

If there was a thing like investigator, investigative commission on what happened, we had it and there were in fact many reasons why it happened and we have taken them to heart.

如果有像調查員、調查委員會這樣的事情來調查所發生的事情，我們就有了，事實上，造成這種情況的原因有很多，我們已經將它們牢記在心。

And it's a lesson to us and I don't think that we -- at least we'll try our very best not to let similar kinds of things to happen again.

這對我們來說是一個教訓，我不認為我們——至少我們會盡力不讓類似的事情再次發生。

Now -- but I just want to emphasize that Altera remains a major and valued partner of ours, and I say this with Altera's concurrence.

現在——但我只是想強調，Altera 仍然是我們的主要且有價值的合作夥伴，我這樣說也得到了 Altera 的同意。

Now Intel as a competitor, I noted Intel's yesterday's analyst call in which they said they have now gone from crawl to walk and then will go on to run.

現在英特爾作為競爭對手，我注意到英特爾昨天的分析師電話會議，他們說他們現在已經從爬行變為行走，然後將繼續運行。

That's all very beautiful metaphor.

這都是非常美麗的比喻。

And then they also raised several conditions or several criteria, three criteria, but there's really nothing new in those and they have said those before.

然後他們也提出了幾個條件或幾個標準，三個標準，但這些其實沒有什麼新內容，他們以前已經說過了。

And I still view Intel as a selective picker among customers.

我仍然認為英特爾是客戶中的選擇性選擇者。

As a foundry competitor they will pick their targets and so on.

作為代工競爭對手，他們會選擇目標等等。

And I don't view them as a general competitor because they have already said, through the three criteria that they used they have already said themselves that they will not be a general all-front competitor.

我不認為他們是一般的競爭對手，因為他們已經說過，透過他們使用的三個標準，他們已經說過他們不會成為一般的全線競爭對手。

But they are a very serious competitor to our customers.

但對我們的客戶來說，他們是一個非常重要的競爭對手。

That really I would say applies even greater pressure on us than they, than Intel as a direct foundry competitor.

我真的想說，這對我們施加的壓力比他們更大，比英特爾作為直接代工競爭對手還要大。

They are a very serious competitor to our customers.

對於我們的客戶來說，他們是一個非常重要的競爭對手。

Our customers rely on us.

我們的客戶依賴我們。

That is very serious pressure and we'll respond to that pressure of course, yes.

這是非常嚴重的壓力，我們當然會回應這種壓力，是的。

We'll respond to that pressure.

我們將回應這種壓力。

Yes?

是的？

Maybe just a follow-up question, Dr. Chang.

也許只是一個後續問題，張博士。

On the mobile guidance you've given for second quarter, is this all being driven by existing customers or are you seeing something new in your customer mix going forward?

根據您為第二季提供的行動指導，這一切都是由現有客戶推動的，還是您在未來的客戶組合中看到了新的東西？

Your question is whether or not the strength of our second quarter business comes from new customer or --

你的問題是我們第二季業務的實力是否來自新客戶或——

In mobile, yes.

在行動裝置上，是的。

In mobile or --

在行動裝置上或——

No.

不。

Obviously something comes from new customers every quarter, but not big.

顯然每個季度都有新客戶帶來一些東西，但規模不大。

We get new customers all the time, but big customers, no.

我們一直都有新客戶，但大客戶卻沒有。

Second quarter strength is not due to one or two big new customers, no.

第二季的強勁並不是由於一兩個大新客戶，不是。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Could I maybe just ask one final question for Lora on depreciation, just to get a sense for through the rest of this year, how might depreciation trend because it was flat in the March quarter?

我能否向 Lora 問最後一個關於折舊的問題，只是為了了解今年剩餘時間，由於三月份季度持平，折舊趨勢可能會如何？

Okay.

好的。

You're asking about the March quarter?

您是在問三月季度嗎？

In general speaking with the CapEx guidance Chairman was talking about, TWD9.5b to TWD10b, we expect whole year depreciation will go up around 23% on year-over-year basis.

總體而言，根據主席所說的資本支出指引（TWD9.5b 至 TWD10b），我們預計全年折舊將較去年同期上升約 23%。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Now we are coming back to the floor.

現在我們回到會議現場。

The next question comes from Daiwa's Eric Chen.

下一個問題來自大和的 Eric Chen。

Hi Dr. Morris Chang.

你好，張忠謀博士。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

My first question, regarding to the gross margin, I saw for 28 nanometer process we took four to six quarter to have the higher than the average gross margin.

我的第一個問題，關於毛利率，我發現對於 28 奈米工藝，我們花了四到六個季度的時間才獲得高於平均毛利率的結果。

So for the 20 nanometer process do we have any schedule, internal plan?

那麼對於20奈米製程我們有什麼時間表、內部計畫嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, Eric, your question is how long will it take for TSMC 20 nanometer to reach corporate gross margin?

那麼，Eric，你的問題是台積電20奈米要多久才能達到企業毛利率？

How long will it take, right?

需要多長時間，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

I think that we have kept some statistics on this sort of thing.

我認為我們對此類事情進行了一些統計。

So very interesting.

非常有趣。

I think it takes --- it took six quarters.

我認為這需要——花了六個季度。

40 nanometer took six quarters -- eight quarters, seven or eight quarters.

40 奈米花了六個季度、八個季度、七個或八個季度。

And 28 nanometer is taking about eight quarters.

28 奈米大約需要八個季度。

And so you ask how long is 20 nanometer take?

那你問20奈米要多久？

I only have history to guide me, alright?

我只有歷史來指導我，好嗎？

So how do you think?

那你覺得怎麼樣？

Take a guess.

猜一下。

How you think how long that will take, on your honesty?

老實說，你認為這需要多長時間？

What?

什麼？

He wants you to take a guess.

他想讓你猜猜。

I think history is my best guess.

我認為歷史是我最好的猜測。

So that means seven to eight quarters.

這意味著七到八個季度。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And my second question, regarding to the CapEx we see the CapEx pretty centralized on the top three semiconductor maker and I will say for this year probably over 70%, even 75% of CapEx among this three.

我的第二個問題，關於資本支出，我們發現資本支出相當集中在三大半導體製造商身上，我想說今年這三家公司的資本支出可能超過 70%，甚至 75%。

So how you think about this kind of CapEx, the centralization, and how the TSMC look at the other two competitors in terms of CapEx?

那麼您如何看待這種資本支出、集中化以及台積電在資本支出方面如何看待其他兩個競爭對手？

And then the follow-on is regarding to the 28-nanometer process capacity.

接下來是28奈米製程產能。

So, Lora, if you don't mind, could you give us idea in terms of the Q1/Q2 and the whole year 28-nanometer process capacity?

那麼，Lora，如果您不介意的話，您能否給我們介紹一下第一季/第二季以及全年28奈米製程產能的情況？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, Eric, you have a question here on CapEx.

埃里克，您有一個關於資本支出的問題。

You said that you observed CapEx tend to be centralized on the top three players.

您說您觀察到資本支出往往集中在前三名玩家身上。

Yes.

是的。

Top three what?

前三是什麼？

Players, the top three companies.

玩家，前三名的公司。

Intel, Samsung and TSMC.

英特爾、三星和台積電。

Intel, Samsung and TSMC.

英特爾、三星和台積電。

So your question is whether or not this is -- what are the implication of this trend to --

所以你的問題是，這個趨勢是否意味著——

Yes, I would like to know this kind of CapEx centralization will accelerate or not and how the TSMC to be outstanding one going forward among the three.

是的，我想知道這種資本支出集中化是否會加速，以及台積電如何在三者中脫穎而出。

It looks like that only three companies can afford to keep investing.

看起來只有三家公司有能力繼續投資。

That's what you're referring to really.

這才是你真正指的。

Right.

正確的。

So versus the other two, there any strategy for the CapEx we see the --

因此，與其他兩者相比，我們看到任何資本支出策略——

You mean TSMC versus the other two?

你的意思是台積電與其他兩家公司的比較？

In terms of the CapEx.

就資本支出而言。

Whether our CapEx will react to the other two companies' CapEx?

我們的資本支出是否會對其他兩家公司的資本支出做出反應？

Whether what?

是否什麼？

Our CapEx will be responsive, responding to other companies?

我們的資本支出會響應其他公司嗎？

Okay.

好的。

No, our CapEx is only responsive to our own needs.

不，我們的資本支出僅響應我們自己的需求。

Okay.

好的。

So we are not going to see the CapEx over-competition going forward?

那我們不會看到未來資本支出過度競爭？

CapEx over?

資本支出結束了嗎？

Over competition?

過度競爭？

I never, never, never in the last 20 years engaged in any CapEx war with anybody.

在過去 20 年裡，我從來、從來、從來沒有與任何人進行任何資本支出戰爭。

Okay.

好的。

Good point.

好點子。

In the past, ever since we started the Company our CapEx has always been responsive to just one thing, that is our own needs.

過去，自從我們創辦公司以來，我們的資本支出始終只回應一件事，那就是我們自己的需求。

Okay.

好的。

Never mind what the other companies spent.

別管其他公司花了多少錢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So Lora, your 28 nanometer?

Lora，你的 28 奈米？

You're asking capacity for each quarter for 28?

您要求每季的容量為 28 個？

Roughly idea, yes.

大概的想法，是的。

Yes, I'm afraid I cannot tell you.

是的，恐怕我不能告訴你。

What I can tell you is we are growing our capacity each quarter for 28.

我可以告訴您的是，我們每季都會增加 28 台的產能。

But in terms of overall CapEx spending, I think we're toward the end of spending by the end of this year for 28.

但就整體資本支出而言，我認為我們將在今年年底前結束 28 項支出。

Okay.

好的。

And very quick, the 28-nanometer process in second quarter in terms of a quarter-on-quarter capacity growth, how many percent will be roughly?

而且很快，第二季28奈米製程的產能較上季成長的話，大概會是多少個百分點？

I think it'll be in line with our revenue growth, okay?

我認為這將與我們的收入成長保持一致，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Quarter over quarter.

季度又季度。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright.

好吧。

If there's no other questions then I think we will end our investors conference and conference call right now.

如果沒有其他問題，那麼我想我們現在就結束投資者大會和電話會議。

Thank you very much for coming and we'll see you next quarter.

非常感謝您的光臨，我們下季再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。