台積電 ADR (TSM) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2013 earning conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電2013年第三季財報發表會及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

The event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

(Conference Instructions).

（會議說明）。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's SVP and CFO, Ms Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the third quarter followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們第三季的營運狀況，然後介紹本季的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Morris Chang, will provide his general remarks and a couple of key messages.

隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長張忠謀博士將發表一般性演講和一些關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms Lora Ho.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士發言。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I will start the presentation with financial highlights for the third quarter and I will follow that by providing the guidance for the fourth quarter.

我將首先介紹第三季的財務亮點，然後提供第四季度的指導。

In the third quarter, TSMC set another record in both revenue and net income, thanks to our leadership in leading edge technologies.

第三季度，台積電憑藉領先技術的領先地位，營收和淨利均再創新高。

In the third quarter revenue increased 4.3% to reach NT$163b.

第三季營收增加4.3%至新台幣1,63b元。

Gross margin was 48.5%, down 0.5 percentage points sequentially due to the lower capacity utilization offset by favorable inventory valuation adjustment.

毛利率為 48.5%，比上一季下降 0.5 個百分點，這是由於有利的庫存估值調整抵消了產能利用率較低的影響。

Total operating expenses was NT$19.3b, slightly increased from the second quarter, mainly due to higher R&D expense for 20-SOC and 16-FinFET technology development.

總營業費用為新台幣 19.3b 元，較第二季度略有增加，主要是由於 20-SOC 和 16-FinFET 技術開發的研發費用增加。

The operating margin was 36.7%, down 0.3 percentage point from the second quarter.

營業利益率為36.7%，較第二季下降0.3個百分點。

Non-operating items was a loss of NT$0.3b in the third quarter, mainly due to the NT$1.35b impairment charge associated with our investment of Stion.

第三季非經營項目虧損新台幣0.3億元，主要是因為我們投資Stion的相關減損費用新台幣1.35億元。

Stion is a US-based solar company which we invested in 2010.

Stion是我們在2010年投資的美國太陽能公司。

The EPS impact for this event is about NT$0.05.

本次事件對 EPS 影響約為新台幣 0.05 元。

Overall EPS was NT$2 in the third quarter and ROE was 26.8%.

第三季整體EPS為新台幣2元，ROE為26.8%。

Let's take a look at the revenue by applications.

讓我們來看看應用程式的收入。

After five consecutive quarters of growth, communications segment declined by 3% in the third quarter as consumer -- customers started to manage down their inventories.

在連續五個季度成長之後，隨著消費者客戶開始減少庫存，通訊部門在第三季下降了 3%。

Computer segment declined 18%.

計算機板塊下跌 18%。

Consumer segment grew significantly in the third quarter thanks to the strong demand from the game consoles.

由於遊戲機的強勁需求，第三季消費市場顯著成長。

Meanwhile, industrial and standard-related revenues grew by 5% from the second quarter.

同時，工業和標準相關收入較第二季度增長了 5%。

Despite the volatilities across different applications, our 28-nanometer continued to grow and contributed 32% of total wafer revenue in the third quarter, up from 29% in the second quarter.

儘管不同應用存在波動，但我們的 28 奈米仍持續成長，並在第三季貢獻了晶圓總收入的 32%，高於第二季的 29%。

Combined with 40-nanometer, the advanced technologies represented 52% of our total wafer revenue.

加上 40 奈米，先進技術占我們晶圓總收入的 52%。

Now moving to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of NT$218b.

現在轉向資產負債表，第三季末我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 218b 元。

Current liabilities decreased by NT$95b as we paid out NT$78b of cash dividend in July.

7月現金紅利新台幣78b元，流動負債減少95b元。

On the financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 2 days to 45 days.

財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數增加2天至45天。

Days of inventory further decreased by 2 days to 45 days as we had less work-in-process inventory in the third quarter.

由於第三季在製品庫存減少，庫存天數進一步減少 2 天至 45 天。

On the cash flow side, during the third quarter, we generated NT$96b from operations, invested NT$55b in capital expenditure, distributed NT$78b cash dividends, repaid NT$13b bank loans and raised NT$41b of corporate bonds.

現金流方面，第三季營業收入新台幣96億元，資本支出投入新台幣55億元，派發現金股利78億元，償還銀行貸款13億元，募集企業債41億元。

Overall, our cash balance decreased NT$9b to NT$217b.

整體而言，我們的現金餘額減少了新台幣 9 億元，至新台幣 2,17 億元。

Free cash flow was an inflow of NT$41b.

自由現金流流入新台幣41b元。

In US dollar terms, we spent $1.8b in capital expenditure in the third quarter.

以美元計算，我們第三季的資本支出為 1.8 億美元。

This adds to the total of $7.2b for the first three quarters, which is about 74% of our total year CapEx which is about $9.7b.

這使得前三個季度的總資本支出達到 7.2b 美元，約占我們全年資本支出總額（約 9.7b 美元）的 74%。

Lastly, I would like to make a few comments on our capacity plan.

最後，我想對我們的產能計劃發表一些評論。

Our total capacity grew 6.5% to around 4.3m 8-inch equivalent wafers in the third quarter and we will increase another 1% in the fourth quarter.

第三季我們的總產能成長了6.5%，達到約430萬片8吋等效晶圓，第四季我們將再增加1%。

For the full year, our 12-inch is expected to grow 17% year over year and our total annual capacity will increase 11% to 16.4m 8-inch equivalent wafers.

全年來看，我們的12吋預計將年增17%，年總產能將成長11%，達到1,640萬片8吋等效晶圓。

I have finished my financial reports.

我已經完成了財務報告。

Now let me provide you our fourth quarter guidance.

現在讓我向您提供我們的第四季度指導。

Based on current business expectation and the forecast exchange rate of NT$29.5, we expect our revenue to be between NT$144b and NT$147b.

根據目前的業務預期和29.5新台幣的預測匯率，我們預計我們的收入將在新台幣144b至147b之間。

In US dollar terms, this would translate to around 10% quarter-over-quarter decline.

以美元計算，這將意味著季度環比下降約 10%。

On the margin side, we expect the fourth quarter gross margin to be between 44% and 46% and operating margin to be between 32% and 34%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第四季毛利率將在44%至46%之間，營業利潤率將在32%至34%之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to Chairman.

讓我把講台轉向主席。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

My message is outlined here on the screen.

我的信息已在螢幕上概述。

First, a few comments on third and fourth quarters of this year.

首先，對今年第三季和第四季的情況進行一些評論。

Third quarter was another record quarter for TSMC both in revenue and in EPS.

台積電第三季的營收和每股盈餘都創下歷史新高。

In a period where sales of certain mobile products were slowing, we are pleased with our third-quarter results as they demonstrated once again TSMC's strong position in the leading edge technologies particularly in the 28-nanometer node.

在某些行動產品銷售放緩的時期，我們對第三季的業績感到滿意，因為它們再次證明了台積電在領先技術尤其是 28 奈米節點方面的強大地位。

As I said three months ago, the fourth quarter may be a down quarter, lower than the third quarter because we expect the supply chain to take serious actions to manage the inventory in the second half of this year.

正如我三個月前所說，第四季度可能是一個下降季度，低於第三季度，因為我們預計供應鏈將在今年下半年採取認真的行動來管理庫存。

That has happened and is still happening.

這種情況已經發生並且仍在發生。

As the CFO has just indicated in the guidance, our fourth quarter will decline by about 10.5% from the third quarter.

正如CFO剛剛在指引中指出的那樣，我們在第四季將比第三季下降約10.5%。

This decline is mainly attributable to the softer demand for certain high-end smartphones and the inventory correction.

這一下降主要歸因於某些高階智慧型手機的需求疲軟以及庫存調整。

We believe the decline is short term.

我們認為下降是短期的。

Meanwhile, TSMC's structural profitability, our technological strengths, and our close customer bonds remain intact.

同時，台積電的結構性獲利能力、技術優勢以及緊密的客戶關係仍然完好無損。

And we are optimistic about 2014.

我們對 2014 年持樂觀態度。

Next, a few comments on industry outlook, supply chain inventory, and mobile products market.

接下來，對產業前景、供應鏈庫存和行動產品市場進行一些評論。

For the full-year 2013, we estimate the semiconductor market, the world semiconductor market will grow 4%.

對於2013年全年的半導體市場，我們預期全球半導體市場將成長4%。

This is a bit higher than the 3% that we estimated last year, last quarter, mainly due to the strength of the memory segment of the semiconductor industry.

這略高於我們去年上季估計的 3%，主要是由於半導體產業記憶體領域的強勁表現。

We again estimate that the fabless industry will grow 9%.

我們再次預期無晶圓廠產業將成長9%。

That's unchanged from our last quarter estimate.

這與我們上季度的預期沒有變化。

We estimate that the foundry industry will grow 11%, unchanged from last quarter.

我們預期代工業將成長11%，與上季持平。

And we now estimate that TSMC this year will grow between 17% and 18%, which of course is much higher than the foundry industry growth.

而我們現在估計台積電今年的成長將在17%到18%之間，這當然遠高於代工產業的成長。

On inventory, in the third quarter, due to slower sales of certain high-end smartphone models, we estimate that the supply chain DOI in the third quarter went up and was above seasonal -- above seasonal.

在庫存方面，第三季度，由於某些高端智慧型手機型號的銷售放緩，我們估計第三季度供應鏈 DOI 有所上升，並且高於季節性——高於季節性。

That was higher than we forecasted three months ago.

這高於我們三個月前的預測。

In the fourth quarter, we expect the supply chain DOI to decline significantly and to approach seasonal level by the end of the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們預計供應鏈 DOI 將大幅下降，並在第四季末接近季節性水準。

On mobile products, the smartphones, 2012 730m units.

在行動產品方面，智慧型手機，2012 年銷售量為 7.3 億部。

2013, we estimate 987m units, a 35% growth.

2013 年，我們估計為 9.87 億台，成長 35%。

2014, we estimate about 1.2b units, a 26% growth over 2013.

2014 年，我們預計約為 1.2b 台，比 2013 年成長 26%。

Tablets, in 2012 165m units.

平板電腦，2012 年銷量 1.65 億台。

This year, we estimate 255m units, a 54% growth.

今年，我們預計銷量為 2.55 億台，成長 54%。

And next year we estimate 310m units, a 22% growth.

我們預計明年銷量將達到 3.1 億台，成長 22%。

Next I will talk about 28-nanometers.

接下來我要講的是28奈米。

28-nanometers is now in our third year of volume production.

28 奈米現已進入量產的第三年。

It still leads our competitors in yields and performance.

它在產量和性能方面仍然領先於我們的競爭對手。

Since the second quarter this year, our quarterly revenue from 28-nanometers has exceeded the $1b mark and we expect to continue to grow our 28-nanometer business further in the next year.

自今年第二季以來，我們的 28 奈米季度營收已突破 10 億美元大關，我們預計明年 28 奈米業務將繼續進一步成長。

TSMC's 28-nanomter market share in our served available market is about 84%, which is higher than our 45-nanometer was in its third year of ramp.

台積電在我們所服務的可用市場中的 28 奈米市場份額約為 84%，高於我們的 45 奈米在第三年的成長。

It is also higher than the market share of our 65-nanometer, our 90-nanometer and our 0.13 micron in their respective third years ramp.

它也高於我們的 65 奈米、90 奈米和 0.13 微米在各自第三年的市佔率。

In 28-nanometer oxynitride solution, we have a couple of competitors.

在 28 奈米氮氧化物解決方案中，我們有幾個競爭對手。

But TSMC delivers higher performance, better yield and shorter cycle time, which helps mitigate customers' inventory risk.

但台積電提供了更高的效能、更好的良率和更短的週期時間，這有助於降低客戶的庫存風險。

Our market share of the oxynitride solution is about 75% this year.

今年我們的氮氧化物溶液市佔率約為75%。

In 28-nanomter high-K metal gate solution, we have little competition.

在28奈米高K金屬柵解決方案中，我們幾乎沒有競爭。

Today our market share of 28 high-K metal gate is above 90%.

目前我們的28高K金屬柵市場佔有率已達90%以上。

As some of our customers begin to migrate to more advanced nodes, 20-nanometer and 16 FinFET, we will have second wave customers to come in to fill our 28-nanometer capacity.

隨著我們的一些客戶開始遷移到更先進的節點、20 奈米和 16 FinFET，我們將迎來第二波客戶來填補我們的 28 奈米產能。

As a result we expect to maintain a high level of capacity utilization for 28-nanometer in the next few years.

因此，我們預計未來幾年28奈米產能利用率將維持在高水準。

Because of our substantial lead in yield, speed, power and our customers trusting us, which we make a hard effort to earn every month, every year, every day and because we have a multitude of second wave customers adopting 28-nanometer in future years, we expect to keep our 28-nanometer market share strong for a long time.

因為我們在良率、速度、功率方面的巨大領先優勢以及客戶對我們的信任，這是我們每個月、每年、每天都努力爭取的，也因為我們在未來幾年有大量採用28 納米的第二波客戶，我們預計將長期保持 28 奈米市場份額的強勁。

Indeed, keeping a high market share in every one of our more mature technologies has been part of our corporate strategy all along.

事實上，在我們每一項更成熟的技術中保持較高的市場份額一直是我們企業策略的一部分。

As the leader in the foundry field, we usually start with a very high share at the leading edge.

身為代工領域的領導者，我們通常一開始就處於領先地位，佔有率非常高。

Then as competitors begin to appear they capture some market share.

然後，隨著競爭對手開始出現，他們佔領了一些市場份額。

But our share in every mature technology, up through 45-nanometers, has never gone below 50%.

但我們在每項成熟技術（直至 45 奈米）中的份額從未低於 50%。

Now, a few comments on 20-nanometer and 16 FinFET.

現在，對 20 奈米和 16 FinFET 進行一些評論。

We will begin volume production of 20-nanometers in the first quarter 2014.

我們將於2014年第一季開始量產20奈米。

That's 90 days from now.

距離現在已經 90 天了。

16-nanometers will follow 20-nanometers in one year.

16 奈米將在一年內緊隨 20 奈米。

We view both 20-nanometer and 16-nanometers as virtually one node.

我們將 20 奈米和 16 奈米視為實際上一個節點。

Specifically on 20-nanometer we have received five product tape-outs and scheduled more than 30 tape-outs in this year and next year from mobile computing, CPU and PLD segments.

特別是在 20 奈米領域，我們已收到 5 個產品流片，並計劃在今年和明年從行動運算、CPU 和 PLD 領域進行 30 多個產品流片。

And all those tape-outs represent big volumes.

所有這些流片都代表著巨大的銷量。

Design ecosystem on 20-nanometer has been validated in real products and is ready to support customers.

20 奈米設計生態系統已在實際產品中得到驗證，並準備好為客戶提供支援。

Yield learning is in line or better than the 28-nanometer path.

良率學習與 28 奈米路徑一致或更好。

We expect a fast ramp of 20-nanometer next year, with revenue from 20-nanometer in 2014 bigger than that of 28-nanometer in 2012.

我們預計明年 20 奈米將快速成長，2014 年 20 奈米的收入將超過 2012 年 28 奈米的收入。

You see 20-nanometer will be starting next year whereas 28-nanometer actually started in the fourth quarter -- third, fourth quarter of 2011.

你會看到 20 奈米將於明年開始，而 28 奈米實際上是在第四季（2011 年第三、第四季）開始的。

So the corresponding point for 28-nanometer was 2012.

所以28奈米對應的時間點是2012年。

But our ramp in 20-nanometer in 2014 is going to be faster than the ramp for 28-nanometer in 2012.

但我們 2014 年 20 奈米的進展將比 2012 年 28 奈米的進展更快。

While our 28-nanometer ramp was a record for TSMC, 20-nanometer ramp will be even faster by about 30%.

雖然我們的 28 奈米斜坡是台積電的記錄，但 20 奈米斜坡將更快約 30%。

On 16 FinFET, technological development is progressing well.

在16 FinFET上，技術開發進展順利。

Risk production is on schedule by the end of this year.

風險生產將於今年底按計劃進行。

More than 25 customer product tape-outs are planned in 2014 including mobile computing, CPU, GPU, PLD and networking applications.

2014 年計畫有超過 25 個客戶產品流片，包括行動運算、CPU、GPU、PLD 和網路應用。

We are on track to begin volume production within one year of 20-nanometers.

我們預計在一年內開始量產 20 奈米。

On both 20-nanometers and 16 FinFET we are confident that we are competitive.

在 20 奈米和 16 FinFET 上，我們有信心具有競爭力。

We derive our confidence from our close working relationship with several large customers.

我們的信心源自於與多家大客戶的密切合作關係。

It is they, our large customers who have to come out with products that will prevail over their competitors.

他們，我們的大客戶，必須推出能戰勝競爭對手的產品。

It is they, our large customers, who ensure that our 20-nanometer and 16 FinFET technology will enable them to prevail over their competitors.

正是他們，我們的大客戶，確保我們的 20 奈米和 16 FinFET 技術將使他們能夠戰勝競爭對手。

Next, let me talk about CapEx growth and revisit the 2010 five-year plan.

接下來，讓我談談資本支出成長並回顧2010年的五年計畫。

As Lora just said, CapEx this year will be around $9.7b, give or take a couple hundred million dollars.

正如 Lora 剛才所說，今年的資本支出將約為 9.7b 美元，上下浮動數億美元。

This year our CapEx is partially for this year's growth but primarily for next year growth.

今年我們的資本支出部分用於今年的成長，但主要用於明年的成長。

We expect another double-digit growth year for 2014.

我們預計 2014 年將再次實現兩位數成長。

Now, let's take a moment to revisit the five-year plan we announced in 2010.

現在，讓我們花點時間回顧一下我們在 2010 年宣布的五年計畫。

In 2010, we set a target of 10% per annum PBT growth and ROE of equal or greater than 20% for the five-year period of 2011 to 2015.

2010年，我們設定的目標是2011年至2015年五年期間PBT每年成長10%，淨資產收益率等於或高於20%。

We were dealt an immediate setback in 2011.

2011 年，我們立即遭遇了挫折。

Our PBT in 2011 actually retreated from the 2010 level.

我們2011年的PBT其實較2010年的水準有所回落。

But since then we have been catching up.

但從那時起我們就一直在追趕。

This year, the gap between our forecast and the trend line, the 10% per annum trend line, is a very small one.

今年，我們的預測與趨勢線（每年 10% 的趨勢線）之間的差距非常小。

In the meantime, we are still comfortably above ROE of 20%.

同時，我們的 ROE 仍然輕鬆高於 20%。

We expect -- on the profit before tax, we expect to more than catch up with the trend line, the planned line in 2014 and 2015.

我們預計，就稅前利潤而言，我們預計將超過趨勢線，即 2014 年和 2015 年的計畫線。

Next I will make a few comments about the CEO succession and the Chairman's continuing hands-on role.

接下來我將就執行長的繼任者和董事長的持續實際作用發表一些評論。

I will get to the bottom line first and then I will offer a few words of comment.

我會先講到底線，然後我會發表一些評論。

The bottom line is just as that said -- that says.

底線正如所說的——那就是說的。

We do plan to appoint a CEO or two Co-CEOs before June of next year.

我們確實計劃在明年 6 月之前任命一名執行長或兩名聯合執行長。

And let me just say that before June of next year.

讓我在明年六月之前先說一下。

It doesn't have to be next year, it could be tomorrow.

不一定是明年，也可以是明天。

Between now and June of next year.

從現在到明年六月。

And the other part of the bottom line is the Chairman's, my continuing hands-on role.

底線的另一部分是主席的職責，也就是我持續的親力親為的職責。

I think it's no news to you that I will continue to be chairman.

我認為我將繼續擔任董事長對你們來說並不是什麼新聞。

But today, I want to emphasize hands-on, continuing hands-on.

但今天，我想強調實踐，繼續實踐。

Now let me offer a few words of comment.

現在讓我發表幾句話。

Well, you remember that I came back in June of 2009 because -- to become the CEO.

好吧，你還記得我在 2009 年 6 月回來的原因是——成為執行長。

I was always the chairman and I will continue to be chairman.

我一直擔任主席，並將繼續擔任主席。

But in June of 2009, I came back to become, to resume CEO responsibilities.

但在 2009 年 6 月，我回來擔任執行長。

It was because I saw golden opportunities for TSMC and also serious challenges.

因為我看到了台積電的黃金機遇，也看到了嚴峻的挑戰。

I cried the Henry the Fifth rally cry, once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.

我再次喊出了亨利五世的集會口號，親愛的朋友們，再次。

Now unfortunately, the meaning of that rally cry was lost on many people because not very many people saw either the opportunity or the challenge as I saw them.

不幸的是，現在很多人都失去了這一集會口號的意義，因為沒有多少人像我一樣看到機會或挑戰。

As far as the challenges were concerned, many people thought that I was referring to an emerging company that styled itself as a global company.

就挑戰而言，許多人認為我指的是一家自稱為全球性公司的新興公司。

But actually even at that point, I looked through that challenge and my gaze was already upon the two 700-pound gorillas in the industry.

但事實上，即使在那時，我審視了這項挑戰，我的目光已經集中在業界的兩隻 700 磅重的大猩猩身上。

As far as opportunity was concerned, very few people saw very clearly the mobile products opportunity.

就機會而言，很少有人非常清楚地看到行動產品的機會。

Now of course it's clear.

現在當然很清楚了。

I also said back in 2009, June of 2009, that I would be CEO for three to five years.

我還在2009年、2009年6月說過，我將擔任執行長三到五年。

Three years because I felt that was the minimum amount of time I needed to shift the Company's strategy and to execute it.

三年，因為我覺得這是我轉變公司策略並執行它所需的最短時間。

Five years because I thought well, by that time, I will have done my bit.

五年了，因為我想好了，到那時，我已經盡了自己的一份心力。

I will have really done my duty with TSMC.

我真的會盡到我對台積電的責任。

Now four and a half years, almost four and a half years have passed and I did realize the shift and at least, much of the execution of a new strategy at TSMC.

現在四年半了，幾乎四年半過去了，我確實意識到了這種轉變，至少是台積電新戰略的大部分執行。

So I plan to follow the initial intention that I set on the five-year part.

所以我打算按照我在五年裡設定的初衷去做。

And that's why I said the five years, which is next June, before then we will appoint a CEO or Co-CEOs.

這就是為什麼我說五年內，也就是明年六月，在此之前我們將任命一位執行長或聯合執行長。

Now, the chairman's role.

現在，主席的角色。

I think that many people, but not everybody, knows what the chairman's role in a company is in Taiwan.

我想，在台灣，很多人，但不是所有人，都知道董事長在公司裡的角色是什麼。

And let me just point out a few salient facts.

讓我指出一些重要的事實。

Under both the Taiwan Company Law and under the Taiwan customs, the chairman of a company is always the ultimate authority.

根據台灣公司法和台灣海關規定，公司董事長始終具有最終權力。

There's no such thing as a non-executive chairman in Taiwan and there's no such thing as an executive chairman.

台灣沒有非執行董事長，也沒有執行董事長。

The term chairman doesn't require any modifier, any adjective nor does it even admit of a modifier.

「主席」一詞不需要任何修飾語、任何形容詞，甚至不允許使用修飾語。

Chairman is chairman and is the ultimate authority.

主席就是主席，有最終權力。

However, not every chairman is hands on.

然而，並非每位董事長都親力親為。

Many chairmen -- well, not many but a few are not hands on.

很多主席——好吧，雖然不是很多，但有些是不親力親為的。

I frankly was not hands-on between 2005 and 2009 and now I'm telling you that I will be hands-on.

坦白說，2005 年至 2009 年間我沒有親自動手，但現在我告訴你們，我會親自動手。

Well, those are the comments that I wanted to make.

嗯，這些就是我想發表的評論。

I guess we are now ready for Q&A.

我想我們現在已經準備好要進行問答了。

Yes, this concludes our prepared statements.

是的，我們準備好的發言到此結束。

(Conference Instructions).

（會議說明）。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from the floor and it will be Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

我們的第一個問題來自與會者，美國銀行美林公司的 Dan Heyler。

Chairman, thanks for taking my question and we hope you'll come back frequently and participate in the quarterlies.

主席，感謝您提出我的問題，我們希望您經常回來參加季度活動。

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

First, on the 16-nanometer, you had made an accurate prediction of your position in 28 in two respects.

首先，在16奈米上，你們在28奈米兩個方面對自己的位置做了準確的預測。

You had said that TSMC would extend your lead in 28 several years ago and that has occurred.

幾年前您曾說過台積電將在28年擴大領先優勢，這已經發生了。

And you'd also indicated that you would actually be with your partners more competitive than the two bigger foundries who were at 22.

您還表示，您與合作夥伴的合作實際上會比 22 家規模較大的代工廠更具競爭力。

So could you offer us two forecasts of 20 and 16 on both metrics?

那麼您能否為我們提供兩個指標的預測值：20 和 16？

Number one, will you extend your lead relative to your competition?

第一，你會擴大相對於競爭對手的領先優勢嗎？

And number two, where do you rest with your partners relative to the IDMs on 16 and 20?

第二，相對於 16 日和 20 日的 IDM，您與合作夥伴的關係如何？

The question as I understand is whether we will extend our lead in 20 and 16.

據我了解，問題是我們是否會在20場和16場比賽中擴大領先優勢。

On 20, very definitely I think, on 20.

20 號，我想絕對是 20 號。

On 16, I think the battle is still raging now.

16日，我認為戰鬥仍在激烈進行中。

On 20, I believe that we will start with a very high market share, just like we did on 28 and so on.

在20日，我相信我們將以非常高的市場份額開始，就像我們在28日等那樣。

And we will keep that high market share for quite a while, several years.

我們將在相當長的一段時間內、幾年內保持如此高的市場份額。

On 16, I believe that we do have the serious competitors, the gorillas that I mentioned.

16日，我相信我們確實有強而有力的競爭對手，就是我提到的大猩猩。

But my goodness, we are -- we intend to prevail.

但天哪，我們——我們打算獲勝。

But I'm not going to tell you now that we won alright.

但我現在不會告訴你我們贏了。

I hope to tell you in, let's say a year and a half I guess, that it's -- that we have already won.

我希望在一年半後告訴你，我們已經贏了。

But on 16, the battle is still raging you know.

但16日，戰鬥仍在激烈進行中。

Could you offer a bit of follow up on that, a little bit of color on 16 because obviously it involves what TSMC does internally?

您能否提供一些後續信息，對 16 進行一些說明，因為顯然它涉及台積電內部的工作？

It also involves your ecosystem partners in achieving your advantage.

它還讓您的生態系統合作夥伴參與實現您的優勢。

So maybe elaborate a bit on what more is going in 16 to further, given how competitive it is, perhaps intensed alliances or closer collaboration with the ARM ecosystem and perhaps more color there on how you can pull ahead.

因此，考慮到競爭的激烈程度，也許可以詳細說明 16 以後會發生什麼，也許是與 ARM 生態系統的緊密聯盟或更密切的合作，也許還有更多關於如何取得領先的色彩。

Well, I think that what's going on with our competitors, well, I think --

嗯，我認為我們的競爭對手正在發生什麼，嗯，我認為——

Ecosystem partners.

生態系合作夥伴。

With our ecosystem partners on the 16-nanometer development plan.

與我們的生態系統合作夥伴一起制定 16 奈米開發計劃。

With our ecosystem partners.

與我們的生態系統合作夥伴。

Well, I don't think I'm an expert on that.

嗯，我不認為我是這方面的專家。

I'm -- however, you know who our ecosystems are, people are.

我——但是，你知道我們的生態系統是誰，人是誰。

And we do have Cliff I think -- well, not just I think, I know that we have Cliff Hou that's in charge, responsible for that part of working with our ecosystem partners.

我認為我們確實有 Cliff，嗯，不僅僅是我認為，我知道我們有 Cliff Hou 負責，負責與我們的生態系統合作夥伴合作的部分。

And as you know ARM is a very important one.

如您所知，ARM 是非常重要的一個。

But others and other EDA and IP providers are also very important.

但其他以及其他 EDA 和 IP 提供者也非常重要。

But more importantly, I think that our large customers don't need the ecosystem as much as the middle-sized customers.

但更重要的是，我認為我們的大客戶不像中型客戶那樣需要生態系統。

And that's why the bond, our bond with the large customers becomes very important.

這就是為什麼我們與大客戶的連結變得非常重要。

And we have really, I believe, worked very hard.

我相信，我們確實非常努力。

Even 15 years ago, I started to say that we had three major strengths, technology, manufacturing and customer partnership.

甚至在 15 年前，我就開始說我們有三大優勢：技術、製造和客戶夥伴關係。

And that's true today -- technology, manufacturing and customer partnership.

今天也是如此——技術、製造和客戶合作夥伴關係。

And we later kind of rotated it between the word partnership and the word customers' trust.

後來我們將其在「合作夥伴」一詞和「客戶信任」一詞之間輪換。

To us it means the same thing.

對我們來說，這意味著同樣的事情。

So the large customers are most important and they don't rely on the ecosystem as much.

所以大客戶是最重要的，他們不太依賴生態系統。

They do use it.

他們確實使用它。

They don't rely on it because they have their own special stuff.

他們不依賴它，因為他們有自己特殊的東西。

So yes.

所以是的。

Thank you, that's great.

謝謝你，太好了。

And the second question for Lora would be on the EPS growth comments that you made earlier getting probably back, about back to trend if not exceeding the trend on the EPS growth.

洛拉的第二個問題是關於您之前發表的每股收益成長評論，如果不超過每股收益成長的趨勢，可能會回到趨勢。

Does that require that your gross profit, structural profitability will actually increase next year to achieve that target?

這是否要求你明年的毛利、結構獲利能力實際上會增加才能實現該目標？

Or can you sustain -- achieve that EPS growth with maintaining your current structural profitability?

或者您能否在維持當前結構性獲利能力的同時維持每股盈餘成長？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi Dan.

嗨丹。

We are confident we can either maintain or slightly improve our structural profitability.

我們有信心能夠維持或略微提高我們的結構性獲利能力。

I know many analysts was concerned about our capital intensity being so high, how can we maintain our structural profitability.

我知道很多分析師擔心我們的資本密集度如此之高，我們如何保持結構性獲利能力。

I have went through the number myself, so let me explain to you this way.

我自己也查過這個數字，所以讓我這樣跟你解釋。

You know our depreciation, there's about 85% of our depreciation that goes to COGS.

你知道我們的折舊，大約 85% 的折舊都用於銷貨成本。

If you just look at the depreciation increase, you will see oh, year over year increased so high.

如果你只看折舊增幅，你會發現哦，比增幅這麼高。

Now this year versus last year it's around 20%.

現在今年與去年相比大約是20%。

Next year it will be more than 35%.

明年將超過35%。

So how can you sustain your structural profitability?

那麼如何才能維持結構性獲利能力呢？

The fact is when we invest in capital expenditure, actually we're adding the capability to do more business.

事實上，當我們投資資本支出時，我們實際上是在增加開展更多業務的能力。

So our quantity will also increase.

所以我們的數量也會增加。

So if you divide it by the unit cost, the depreciation cost actually doesn't increase that much.

因此，如果將其除以單位成本，折舊成本實際上不會增加那麼多。

Other than that, since we have migrated technology to more leading edge, so our average ASP will go higher as you have seen in past few years.

除此之外，由於我們已經將技術遷移到更前沿，因此我們的平均 ASP 將會更高，正如您在過去幾年中所看到的那樣。

In addition to that, with the continual productivity improvement from our operation people, we will able to drive the non-depreciation cost to go down on a per annual basis.

除此之外，隨著我們營運人員生產力的不斷提高，我們將能夠推動非折舊成本逐年下降。

That means we can maintain the structural profitability.

這意味著我們可以保持結構性獲利能力。

So making it simple, if we invest in CapEx and those capacity get utilized and we continue to drive the efficiency and then we can maintain the same structure and so the EPS will grow.

因此，簡單地說，如果我們投資資本支出並且這些產能得到利用，並且我們繼續提高效率，那麼我們可以保持相同的結構，因此每股盈餘將會成長。

I hope my explanation is clear.

我希望我的解釋很清楚。

Yes, it is.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Next question also comes from the floor and it would go to UBS, Jonah Cheng.

下一個問題也來自與會者，將由瑞銀集團的 Jonah Cheng 提出。

(Spoken in Chinese).

（用中文說）。

Very quickly, for my first question, I think last time, Chairman had said something about the Q4 will be a bit slow down.

很快，對於我的第一個問題，我想上次主席曾說過有關第四季度的速度會有點慢。

And right now since the days of inventory already were back to normal in the end of this year, can we assume that in Q1 next year we may see the normal seasonal pattern like roughly flattish and start to rebound in Q2, this kind of normal pattern or still something we need to watch.

現在，由於庫存天數已經在今年年底恢復正常，我們是否可以假設，明年第一季我們可能會看到正常的季節性模式，例如大致持平，並在第二季度開始反彈，這種正常模式或仍然是我們需要關注的東西。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jonah's question is whether or not we will have a normal seasonal 1Q 2014 or --

Jonah 的問題是 2014 年第一季是否會出現正常的季節性，或者——

Anything different we still need to watch.

有什麼不同我們仍然需要觀察。

Or anything different.

或任何不同的東西。

What's your idea of a normal seasonal?

您對正常季節的看法是什麼？

Okay, my idea for normal is roughly flat to down slightly, QOQ.

好吧，我對正常的想法是大致持平到略有下降，QOQ。

Flat to slightly down.

平坦至略微下降。

Well, it's a bit early to predict the first quarter.

嗯，現在預測第一季還為時過早。

But I do want to say that with the introduction of mobile products, the mobile products have a seasonality pattern that's different from what you described, from our traditionally normal seasonality pattern.

但我確實想說，隨著行動產品的推出，行動產品的季節性模式與您所描述的不同，與我們傳統上正常的季節性模式不同。

And so I would not rely on that normal seasonal pattern.

所以我不會依賴正常的季節性模式。

And as to what the first quarter will be, I think that it's a little too early to forecast at this point.

至於第一季的情況，我認為現在預測還為時過早。

But seasonality refers to what happens during one whole year, not what happens quarter to quarter.

但季節性是指一整年中發生的情況，而不是每季發生的情況。

And I have said earlier that we're very optimistic about next year will be a double-digit growth year, the whole year -- the whole year.

我之前說過，我們非常樂觀地認為明年將是兩位數成長的一年，全年──全年。

Now if the first quarter comes in a bit low, you will have a surge in the second and third quarter that will rattle our teeth.

現在，如果第一季的表現有點低，那麼第二季和第三季就會出現飆升，這會讓我們牙齒咬牙切齒。

And in fact, the mobile products fourth quarter, well, this time, this year for us, fourth quarter is a bit down, 10% down.

事實上，行動產品第四季度，嗯，今年對我們來說，第四季有點下降，下降了10%。

But that's mainly because of the inventory adjustment and because as I said of the slowing of just a few --

但這主要是因為庫存調整，而且正如我所說，只有少數企業放緩——

High end smartphone model.

高階智慧型手機型號。

High end -- sorry, I just want to use the same words that I've used before.

高端——抱歉，我只想用我以前用過的詞。

I know what they are but I just want to use the same words to describe them.

我知道它們是什麼，但我只想用同樣的詞來描述它們。

A few high-end mobile products.

一些高端行動產品。

But that does not necessarily reflect the normal pattern of mobile products.

但這並不一定反映出行動產品的正常模式。

So I don't know.

所以我不知道。

I guess my answer to you is summarized by the following sentences.

我想我對你的回答可以歸納為以下幾句話。

You cannot rely on the normal seasonal pattern and we are optimistic about the year as a whole.

你不能依賴正常的季節性模式，我們對全年整體持樂觀態度。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And my second question is about the chairman just mentioned you will still hands-on after June next year.

我的第二個問題是關於主席剛才提到的，明年六月之後你仍然會親自動手。

So what we are trying to know is for the investment relations side, can we keep hearing from you?

那我們想了解的是投資關係方面，我們可以繼續收到您的消息嗎？

Even after July next year, that you can still attend analysts meeting and provide your views to us.

即使明年7月之後，您仍然可以參加分析師會議並向我們提供您的觀點。

That's maybe something we want to know.

這也許是我們想知道的。

Yes, he's making a request for Chairman to still come to the investors conference after relaying the CEO position.

是的，他要求董事長在轉達執行長職位後仍然參加投資者會議。

Thank you for the invitation.

感謝你的邀請。

And I will consider it.

我會考慮的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just to show how hands-on I will be.

只是為了展示我將如何親力親為。

We're expecting it.

我們期待著它。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

Next question comes from the floor again.

下一個問題又來自會場。

It's Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

我是德意志銀行的麥可週。

Hi, Chairman.

主席您好。

One question regarding 20-nanometer gross margin improvement pace.

一個關於20奈米毛利率改善速度的問題。

Given that you forecast 20-nanometer for the first year should be faster than 28-nanometer, so for the first 12 months right, so can we expect your gross margin in 20-nanometer improvement pace will be faster than 28-nanometer?

鑑於您預測第一年 20 奈米應該快於 28 奈米，那麼前 12 個月是正確的，那麼我們是否可以預期您在 20 奈米的毛利率改善速度將快於 28 奈米？

Thank you.

謝謝。

The question was what will 20-nanometer margin look like?

問題是 20 奈米邊緣會是什麼樣子？

You're asking what the 20-nanometer gross margin like compared to 28-nanometer gross margin.

您問的是 20 奈米毛利率與 28 奈米毛利率相比如何。

As Chairman just talked about, the ramping profile for 20-nanometer will be more aggressive than 28-nanometer.

正如主席剛才所說，20 奈米的成長曲線將比 28 奈米更加激進。

So we expect 28 -- 20-nanometer will contribute quite significant revenue in 2014.

因此我們預計28-20奈米將在2014年貢獻相當可觀的收入。

Because the scale ramp so fast, so we can expect margin growth will be faster, in a much faster slope than 28-nanometer, if we compare to the same period with the same period.

因為規模成長如此之快，所以如果我們與同期相比，我們可以預期利潤率成長將會更快，其斜率比 28 奈米快得多。

Michael, your question really is whether or not the gross margin will also improve faster for 20-nanometer than for 28-nanometer, the speed of gross margin improvement.

Michael，你的問題其實是20奈米的毛利率是否也會比28奈米的毛利率提高得更快。

Well, I think the answer is yes.

嗯，我想答案是肯定的。

I think -- actually I said earlier that up to this point the 20-nanometer, D-zero improvement has been on a faster path than the 28-nanometer.

我認為——實際上我之前說過，到目前為止，20 奈米、D-0 改進的速度比 28 奈米更快。

So there's no reason to expect that that will stop.

因此，沒有理由期望這種情況會停止。

I think it will continue, the yield improvement pace.

我認為產量改善的步伐將會持續下去。

That was the question?

這就是問題所在？

Yes.

是的。

That was the question?

這就是問題所在？

I'm sorry I don't see any --

抱歉我沒有看到任何——

Okay.

好的。

That was the question right.

這個問題問得對。

Yes.

是的。

So the answer is yes.

所以答案是肯定的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The second question is regarding the long term, as you say, the profit before tax target of 10% growth.

第二個問題是關於長期的，正如你所說，稅前利潤成長10%的目標。

Given that the addressable market of the mobile devices should decline in terms of growth rate going forward, so if you continue to improve your structural profitability, the second driver could be a bigger addressable market or you can see any new growth driver for your profitability?

鑑於行動裝置的潛在市場未來成長率應該會下降，所以如果你繼續提高結構性獲利能力，第二個驅動力可能是更大的潛在市場，或者你能看到任何新的獲利成長動力嗎？

Can you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

The driver for structural profitability improvement, what are they?

結構性獲利改善的驅動力是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Given that Lora just mentioned structural profitability should improve, but the addressable market of the mobile devices should start to see the slower growth rate.

鑑於 Lora 剛才提到結構性獲利能力應該會改善，但行動裝置的潛在市場應該會開始出現較慢的成長率。

So how can you address to improve to capture the profit before tax of 10%?

那麼如何才能提高稅前利潤 10% 呢？

So, right.

所以，對。

Given the slowing growth of the smartphones and tablets, why can we still achieve PBT growth rate bigger than 10%.

在智慧型手機和平板電腦成長放緩的情況下，為什麼我們還能達到PBT大於10%的成長速度？

Given the growth drivers, which is the mobile products, the rate of growth is slowing, can we still achieve or how can we still achieve PBT growth bigger than 10%?

考慮到成長動力，即行動產品，成長速度正在放緩，我們是否還能實現或如何實現PBT大於10%的成長？

Well, actually you'll notice that in the past two years in 2012 and 2013, our PBT growth has been higher than 10%.

嗯，實際上你會注意到，在過去的兩年，也就是2012年和2013年，我們的PBT成長一直高於10%。

We had a setback in 2011 and we had to make up.

2011年我們遭遇了挫折，必須彌補。

So in 2012, if you show the slide again --

所以在 2012 年，如果你再次播放這張投影片——

The dotted line, the upper dotted line is the 10% growth line and we had a setback in 2011.

虛線，上面的虛線是10%的成長線，我們在2011年遇到了挫折。

And so in 2012 we had to grow faster than 10%.

因此，2012 年我們的成長速度必須超過 10%。

PBT had to grow faster than 10%.

PBT 的成長速度必須超過 10%。

And then in 2013, it grew faster than 10% again.

然後在 2013 年，成長率再次超過 10%。

And now in 2014 I drew a kind of hazy ellipse here to show where it might go.

現在在 2014 年，我在這裡畫了一個模糊的橢圓來顯示它可能去的地方。

And my expectation is that it's going to -- we're going to more than catch up in 2014.

我的期望是──我們將在 2014 年迎頭趕上。

And we're going to -- by the time 2015 comes, I think we'll be above that.

我們將——到 2015 年到來時，我認為我們將超越這一目標。

So now we're going to -- look, we're going to grow double-digit, I think, comfortably double-digit next year.

所以現在我們要——看，我認為，明年我們將實現兩位數的成長。

Not just barely double-digit, but comfortably double-digit next year.

明年不只是勉強兩位數，而且是輕鬆兩位數。

And it's our intention to grow PBT proportionately.

我們的目的是按比例增加 PBT。

And it's our intention to grow our PBT proportionately.

我們的目的是按比例增加 PBT。

So you say how can we do that?

那你說我們怎麼做才能做到這一點？

Well, that's complicated.

嗯，這很複雜。

You can't just -- it's a mistake to try to analyze our Company one technology at a time or one customer at a time.

您不能只是嘗試一次分析我們公司的一項技術或一次分析一個客戶，這是錯誤的。

I run a company as a whole and parts of the Company may be down, but parts of them are up.

我經營一家公司，公司的一部分可能會下跌，但也有一部分會上漲。

And I just want to be sure, that's my hands-on, that the up parts more than balance the down parts, okay.

我只是想確定，這是我的親身實踐，向上的部分不僅僅是平衡向下的部分，好吧。

So I was just to try to say that mobile products, the mobile product growth is slowing down and that's why maybe our revenue growth next year will be a bit less than this year.

所以我只是想說行動產品，行動產品的成長正在放緩，這就是為什麼我們明年的收入成長可能會比今年少一些。

This year it's 17% to 18% and next year may be a bit lower.

今年是17%到18%，明年可能會低一些。

But it will still be comfortably, as I said, double-digit.

但正如我所說，它仍將是兩位數。

If I make some comment on the smartphone growing, your concern about the high-end smartphone growing is slowing down, but we still believe smartphone is still going to grow a, at least for the 10% for next year and the year after next.

如果我對智慧型手機的成長發表一些評論，你對高階智慧型手機成長的擔憂正在放緩，但我們仍然相信智慧型手機仍將成長，至少在明年和後年成長 10%。

For overall smartphone where we have very high penetration on mid to low-end, we believe the overall smartphone will grow 35% this year and 25% next year.

對於整體智慧型手機來說，我們在中低階的滲透率非常高，我們相信整體智慧型手機今年將成長35%，明年將成長25%。

So our market position on the smartphone still will be a very big driver for us, TSMC's growth.

因此，我們在智慧型手機上的市場地位仍然將是我們台積電成長的一個非常大的推動力。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

I think it's about time that we should take our next questions from the call.

我認為我們是時候回答電話會議中的下一個問題了。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller in the line.

接線員，請接聽隊列中的第一個呼叫者。

Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

史蒂文‧佩拉約，匯豐銀行。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Two questions; one very near term and one much longer term.

兩個問題；一個是近期的，一個是長期的。

More color, if you could provide some more color on your guidance for the fourth quarter.

更多的色彩，如果你可以在第四季的指導中提供更多的色彩。

Revenue is down about 10% or 11%.

收入下降約 10% 或 11%。

I'm curious, is that all segments declining, can 28-nanometer maybe still grow in dollars?

我很好奇，是不是所有細分市場都在下降，28 奈米的美元價值還能成長嗎？

Will all segments be down?

所有細分市場都會下跌嗎？

Which one will relatively outperform?

哪一個會相對表現較好？

Can you give us some more color and detail on both by segment as well as technology nodes relative to your overall guidance of down about 10% to 11%?

相對於您下降約 10% 至 11% 的整體指導，您能否按細分市場和技術節點為我們提供更多資訊和細節？

Steven, your first question is to provide additional color on the fourth quarter 10.5% decline, whether or not the decline is all from the decline of the 28-nanometer.

Steven，你的第一個問題是對第四季 10.5% 的下降提供額外的說明，無論下降是否全部來自 28 奈米的下降。

That's your first question, is that right?

這是你的第一個問題，對嗎？

No, actually my question was can 28-nanometer still continue to grow in the fourth quarter --

不，實際上我的問題是 28 奈米在第四季還能繼續成長嗎——

Okay.

好的。

Or alternatively will segments be down.

或者，各部分將關閉。

Can you provide us a little bit more detail by both technology node as well as by communications, computing, consumer, will all those segments be down or any of them relatively outperform.

您能否為我們提供更多關於技術節點以及通訊、計算、消費者方面的詳細信息，所有這些細分市場是否都會下降，或者其中任何一個細分市場的表現相對會更好。

So I'm looking for more just general color by technology and by segment on the fourth quarter guidance.

因此，我正在尋找更多按技術和細分市場劃分的第四季度指導的一般色彩。

Okay.

好的。

Steven, you're asking about segment changes on the fourth quarter.

史蒂文，你問的是第四季的部門變化。

Of the 10% decline for TSMC, we will see most decline will be in consumer segment, decline the most, followed by the computer and followed by the communications.

在台積電10%的跌幅中，我們會看到跌幅最大的是消費領域，跌幅最大的是計算機，其次是通訊。

Industrial standard actually is slightly down or flattish.

工業標準實際上略有下降或持平。

And Steven, we do not give you any guidance on a particular node, sorry.

史蒂文，我們不會為您提供有關特定節點的任何指導，抱歉。

And then what is your second part of the question?

那麼問題的第二部分是什麼呢？

My next question is just much longer term for Chairman there.

我的下一個問題是主席的長遠目標。

You obviously have a much better crystal ball than all of us, having seen the mobile opportunity in 2009.

看到 2009 年的移動機會，您顯然比我們所有人都擁有更好的水晶球。

You just shared some forecasts for smartphones and tablet growth rates, falling from the 35% and 50% growth rates to the 20% to 25% next year.

您剛剛分享了智慧型手機和平板電腦成長率的一些預測，從 35% 和 50% 的成長率下降到明年的 20% 到 25%。

I think IDC is talking about 10% to 15% in 2015.

我認為 IDC 所說的 2015 年將成長 10% 到 15%。

So I'm curious, as you're looking out beyond 2014, what are going to be those next big opportunities to drive growth?

所以我很好奇，當您展望 2014 年之後，推動成長的下一個重大機會將會是什麼？

And, perhaps just as important, will TSMC need to spend the greater than 40% CapEx to sales that they had to over the last few years to capture whatever those opportunities you see.

也許同樣重要的是，台積電是否需要將過去幾年中超過 40% 的資本支出用於銷售，以抓住您所看到的任何機會。

All right, so your question --

好吧，那麼你的問題——

Actually before I ask you to repeat Steven's second question, I want to add to Lora's answer to his first question, all right?

事實上，在我請你重複史蒂文的第二個問題之前，我想補充一下洛拉對第一個問題的回答，好嗎？

His first question was whether the 28-nanometer would decline in the fourth quarter and Lora didn't really answer that.

他的第一個問題是28奈米在第四季是否會下滑，Lora並沒有真正回答這個問題。

Well, you said no.

嗯，你說不。

I don't mind answering it.

我不介意回答一下。

Well, remember we said that one of the main reasons for the fourth quarter decline is the high-end mobile products, the slowing of it.

好吧，請記住我們說過，第四季度下降的主要原因之一是高端行動產品的放緩。

And 28-nanometer, our 28-nanometer will decline just a little bit, all right; not 10% but just a little bit.

還有28奈米，我們28奈米會下降一點點，好；不是10%，只是一點點。

So that's -- yes.

所以那就是——是的。

Okay.

好的。

Now.

現在。

All right.

好的。

The second part of Steven's question is how does Chairman see our growth drivers beyond 2014?

史蒂文問題的第二部分是董事長如何看待 2014 年後我們的成長動力？

What will be the other growth drivers beyond the mobile product for us and then how much CapEx we'll be spending to capture both types of growth beyond 2014?

對我們來說，除了行動產品之外，還有哪些其他成長動力？

I see.

我懂了。

Very difficult question.

非常困難的問題。

On the outlook for -- beyond 2015 well, look, we made a five-year plan and I thought that was pretty far-reaching back in 2010.

關於 2015 年後的前景，我們制定了一個五年計劃，我認為這在 2010 年是相當深遠的。

And nobody even remembered that until today when I brought it out again, okay.

甚至沒有人記得這一點，直到今天我再次把它拿出來，好吧。

So now I said in my autobiography that as far as semiconductors are concerned, I am an eternal optimist.

所以現在我在自傳裡說，就半導體而言，我是一個永遠的樂觀主義者。

I believe that the people will keep finding new applications for semiconductors.

我相信人們會不斷尋找半導體的新應用。

Now it's the mobile products.

現在是行動產品。

Now the next one may now be something even more miniature and something even more convenient, like the wearables, like the watches and the -- but I think it could well be something even beyond that, but I don't think one can foretell what the future holds for us in semiconductors.

現在下一個可能是更微型、更方便的東西，例如穿戴式裝置、手錶之類的東西——但我認為它很可能會超越這個範圍，但我認為人們無法預測什麼半導體的未來屬於我們。

I know that it will be good because it's a fundamental component.

我知道這會很好，因為它是一個基本組成部分。

It's as indispensable to the world as almost food is, I would say.

我想說，它對世界來說就像食物一樣不可或缺。

Now, of course, people can never go without food, but in this information technology world -- and information technology was what drove the economic progress in the last 30 years.

當然，現在人們永遠遠離不開食物，但在這個資訊科技的世界裡，資訊科技是過去 30 年經濟進步的動力。

And in the information technology world semiconductors are indispensable and people will keep thinking about -- thinking up new applications.

在資訊科技世界中，半導體是不可或缺的，人們將不斷思考新的應用。

So I'm optimistic about years beyond 2015, but I cannot tell you what the exact applications, where the exact applications will be.

所以我對 2015 年之後的幾年持樂觀態度，但我無法告訴你具體的應用是什麼，具體的應用將在哪裡。

Now, was there another one, another question?

現在，還有另一個問題嗎？

Steven, thank you for your question.

史蒂文，謝謝你的提問。

Now we come --

現在我們來了——

Thank you.

謝謝。

Come back to the floor.

回到地板上。

The next comes from the floor of Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個發言來自瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

I wanted to ask, you talked about the double-digit profit before tax growth.

我想問一下，您談到了兩位數的稅前利潤成長。

Could you talk about now your expectation on CapEx?

現在您能談談您對資本支出的期望嗎？

And also there's some talk about EUV continuing to be a bit slower, so just how that affects capital intensity and timing for EUV?

還有一些討論稱 EUV 的速度繼續放緩，那麼這對 EUV 的資本強度和時機有何影響？

Yes, can you repeat that one.

是的，你能重複嗎？

Randy asked Chairman to share the view about future CapEx.

蘭迪請主席分享對未來資本支出的看法。

And given EUV appears to be a bit slower, what would be its impact to our CapEx and capital intensity.

鑑於 EUV 似乎有點慢，它會對我們的資本支出和資本密集度產生什麼影響。

EUV will be a little --

EUV 會有點——

Slower.

慢點。

Delayed.

延遲。

EUV will be little slower?

EUV會慢一點嗎？

Okay we'll get to that, all right.

好的，我們會解決這個問題的。

I want to ask you where your information came from.

我想問一下你的資訊是從哪裡來的？

Okay.

好的。

Well, let me first talk about CapEx.

好吧，讓我先談談資本支出。

Next year's CapEx will still be high.

明年的資本支出仍將很高。

But if you want me just to give you a ballpark, I would say the ballpark is around what we -- is around NT$10b, okay?

但如果你想讓我給你一個大概的數字，我會說大概的數字大約是 10 億新台幣左右，好嗎？

But earlier I said that this year NT$9.7b, give or take a couple of hundred millions.

但之前我說過今年9.7b新台幣，上下兩億吧。

So when I give you NT$10b, I have to say give or take a couple of billion, okay.

所以當我給你10b新台幣時，我不得不說給或拿幾十億，好吧。

So now it highly depends on what we see the growth opportunities of 2015 will be, all right, but I do think that the capital intensity has either peaked this year -- this year the capital intensity is about 50%.

所以現在這很大程度上取決於我們對 2015 年成長機會的看法，好吧，但我確實認為資本密集度今年已經達到頂峰——今年資本密集度約為 50%。

We have NT$20b of revenue and about NT$10b of CapEx, so I do think that 50% is about the right peak.

我們有 20 億新台幣的收入和大約 10 億新台幣的資本支出，所以我確實認為 50% 是正確的高峰。

Now then --

接著 -

EUV.

極紫外光。

EUV, well actually I just met with our ASML partners yesterday, yes, and they told me just the reverse of what you just said; it's slowed or something?

EUV，實際上我昨天剛會見了我們的 ASML 合作夥伴，是的，他們告訴我的與你剛才所說的正好相反；它變慢了還是怎樣？

No, I think that the EUV progress is good and we are obviously tracking it very, very carefully.

不，我認為 EUV 的進展很好，我們顯然正在非常非常仔細地追蹤它。

And -- but remember we are a significant investor in ASML and we also join in their EUV R&D program.

而且 - 但請記住，我們是 ASML 的重要投資者，我們也加入了他們的 EUV 研發計劃。

And so tracking it very carefully and we are pretty sure that we're going to need it sometime in the future.

因此，非常仔細地跟踪它，我們非常確定我們將來某個時候會需要它。

Yes.

是的。

The reason I mentioned ASML, I think at the investor conference perception was throughput was improving a little bit slower, so fewer tools were coming up in the next year, so it's a perception of it was just a little bit slower path in terms of improving productivity and throughput.

我提到 ASML 的原因是，我認為在投資者會議上，人們的看法是吞吐量提高得有點慢，因此明年出現的工具較少，所以人們認為它在改進方面只是速度慢了一點生產力和吞吐量。

But it sounds like by 10-nanometer you expect EUV to start for some of your process steps.

但聽起來您預計到 10 奈米時，您的某些製程步驟將開始使用 EUV。

EUV progress itself has not slowed.

EUV 的進展本身並沒有放緩。

Well, it had a breakthrough about, I guess, earlier this year and before that it was a bit disappointing.

嗯，我想，它在今年早些時候取得了突破，在此之前有點令人失望。

And -- but they had a breakthrough early this year and since then their progress has been on track.

而且——但他們在今年年初取得了突破，從那時起他們的進展就步入正軌。

Okay.

好的。

Next question comes from the floor from Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, Chairman.

下午好，主席。

First question is Chairman mentioned about we are going a second wave 28-nanometer product adoption.

第一個問題是主席提到我們即將迎來第二波 28 奈米產品採用。

So can Chairman explain more for what are the growth driver for the second wave 28-nanometer product?

那麼董事長能否詳細解釋一下第二波28奈米產品的成長動力是什麼？

Is this coming from the existing customers or coming from the existing products or this is a totally new customer or totally new segment?

這是來自現有客戶還是來自現有產品，還是這是一個全新的客戶或全新的細分市場？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, until about three or four years ago our first-wave customers at any leading edge were graphics and baseband and the PLD and so on.

嗯，直到大約三、四年前，我們在任何前沿領域的第一波客戶都是圖形、基頻和 PLD 等。

But then the first wave was taken over by the IC makers, IC suppliers for the mobile products.

但隨後第一波浪潮由IC製造商、行動產品IC供應商接手。

And the second wave now is what used to be the first wave, all right?

現在的第二波就是以前的第一波，好嗎？

And in the first wave there are some users that are later than the first first wave, for instance the providers, suppliers to the China phone market is later than the provider, IC provider to the American, European market, so.

而且在第一波中，有些用戶比第一波晚，像是中國手機市場的供應商、供應商晚於美國、歐洲市場的供應商、IC供應商等等。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, I expect since the original first wave leading edge technology adopter are mainly for the computer, for graphic or for FPJ PLD, so this time around I think for them to become a second wave customers I think that the adoption maybe more likely from the high-k metal gate point of view.

所以，我預計，由於最初的第一波前沿技術採用者主要是電腦、圖形或 FPJ PLD，所以這次我認為他們會成為第二波客戶，我認為採用可能更有可能來自高k金屬閘極的觀點。

It's not from the PolySiON because I think that for them, they need more powerful devices.

它不是來自 PolySiON，因為我認為對於他們來說，他們需要更強大的設備。

So, that means going forward the growth, revenue growth for 28-nanometer probably will be even faster than the volume growth because with this high-k gate metal gate adoption, for the higher ASP and the higher gross margins.

因此，這意味著未來的成長，28 奈米的收入成長可能會比銷量成長更快，因為隨著高 k 閘極金屬閘極的採用，可以獲得更高的平均售價和更高的毛利率。

Am I reading you right or --

我沒聽錯嗎，還是──

I'm sorry, would you --

對不起，你願意——

All right.

好的。

Roland is making a prediction that our second wave customers filling our 28-nanometer capacity will be the ones that requires high-k metal gate instead of the oxynitride and therefore our revenue growth of 28-nanometer will be faster because high-k metal gate is more value added.

Roland 預測，填充我們 28 奈米產能的第二波客戶將是需要高 k 金屬閘極而不是氮氧化物的客戶，因此我們 28 奈米的收入成長將更快，因為高 k 金屬閘極更多附加價值。

Our revenue growth will what?

我們的營收成長將會怎樣？

On 28-nanometer --

28奈米——

Will be faster?

會更快嗎？

Will be faster than otherwise, yes.

會比其他方式更快，是的。

Because of higher ASP on high-k metal gate.

因為高k金屬柵上的ASP較高。

Now that I think about it, you may be right.

現在我想了一下，你可能是對的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Thank you Chairman.

謝謝主席。

My second question is on the 10-nanometer side.

我的第二個問題是關於10奈米方面的。

I think Intel is pushing out 14-nanometer adoption -- mass production by one quarter to maybe first quarter next year.

我認為英特爾正在推遲 14 奈米的採用——將量產時間提前一個季度，可能是明年第一季。

And personally I predict, for Intel's 10-nanometer, mass production probably will be two years after its 14-nanometer which probably will be 2015.

我個人預測，英特爾的10奈米量產可能會在14奈米之後兩年，也就是2015年。

And then we look at TSMC, according to your product road map, now you are going to risk production 10-nanometer from 2015.

然後我們看看台積電，根據你的產品路線圖，現在你將從2015年開始冒險生產10奈米。

So is there any chance of -- or what is the chance you think for TSMC, on 10-nanometer, TSMC is probably going to beat Intel in the mass production [side].

那麼，在 10 奈米製程上，台積電可能會在量產方面擊敗英特爾，或者您認為台積電有什麼機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Would you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

All right.

好的。

Roland is also making a prediction.

羅蘭也在做出預測。

Judging by just recently announced Intel pushing out their 14-nanometer by one quarter to next year, so that puts us into 2014.

從英特爾最近宣布的 14 奈米製程推遲四分之一到明年來看，我們已經進入 2014 年了。

Mass production follows in two years, that's 2016.

兩年後即2016年開始量產。

So Roland said if we start risk production of our 10-nanometer in 2015, is there a chance that we will be ahead of Intel?

所以Roland說，如果我們在2015年開始風險生產我們的10奈米，我們是否有機會領先英特爾？

Or I rephrase my question.

或者我重新表達我的問題。

What's the chance, if there is a chance, what's the chance you think you are going to beat Intel in 10-nanometer production?

機會有多大，如果有機會，您認為自己在 10 奈米生產上擊敗英特爾的機會有多大？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I am not going to comment on that, Roland.

我不會對此發表評論，羅蘭。

I'm not going to comment, Roland, on that and I never, never underestimate anybody.

羅蘭，我不會對此發表評論，而且我永遠、永遠不會低估任何人。

I would not underestimate Intel.

我不會低估英特爾。

I didn't even underestimate anybody that was lesser than Intel and I would not underestimate Intel.

我甚至沒有低估任何比英特爾更小的公司，我也不會低估英特爾。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Maybe I can ask in another way.

也許我可以用另一種方​​式問。

Typically, how long does it take for 10-nanometer from risk production to mass production?

通常情況下，10奈米從風險生產到量產需要多長時間？

Ours?

我們的？

Yes.

是的。

[One year].

[一年]。

No, no, 10, he said 10.

不，不，10，他說10。

10 is two years after 16.

10是16之後的兩年。

10 is two years after 16.

10是16之後的兩年。

No, I mean, how long will it take for the risk production to be completed?

不，我的意思是，風險生產需要多長時間才能完成？

Well, that can be shorter than it traditionally was.

嗯，這可能比傳統的短。

That could be shorter than it traditionally was.

這可能比傳統的短。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

We really have quite a few people in the queue.

我們確實有不少人在排隊。

I saw Andrew.

我看到安德魯.

I know, but there are several people waiting a long time.

我知道，但是有好幾個人等很久了。

Andrew comes first.

安德魯排第一。

All right, Andrew comes first.

好吧，安德魯先來。

Okay, Andrew first.

好的，首先是安德魯。

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

Okay, Andrew first.

好的，首先是安德魯。

Thank you, Dr. Chang.

謝謝你，張醫師。

Much appreciate on this.

對此非常讚賞。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

First one is regarding, earlier you mentioned Q1 next year we will start on mass production the 28-nanometer, Q1 2015 mass production.

第一個是關於，剛才您提到明年第一季我們將開始量產28奈米，2015年第一季量產。

This mass production is a wafer start, is that correct?

這次量產是晶圓的開始，對嗎？

Yes, well, wafer start.

是的，好吧，晶圓開始了。

Is a wafer start --

是晶圓的開始——

But the cycle time is a given thing, yes.

但周期時間是給定的，是的。

So, yes, wafer start, yes.

所以，是的，晶圓開始，是的。

Well, wafer start --

好吧，晶圓開始——

So can we say --

那我們可以說——

Just a minute.

等一下。

I think that we expect we have some revenue right?

我認為我們預計會有一些收入，對嗎？

From second quarter, revenue comes from second quarter.

從第二季開始，營收來自第二季。

First quarter must be wafer start.

第一季必須是晶圓開始。

Right.

正確的。

So you will have about three to four months wafer start work-in-progress style, so we are going to build a lot of inventory in Q1.

因此，您將有大約三到四個月的晶圓開始在製品風格，因此我們將在第一季建立大量庫存。

Can we assume --

我們可以假設—

Work-in-process inventory. \

在製品庫存。 \

Work-in-progress inventory, so that will share some of the depreciation cost in Q1.

在製品庫存，因此將分擔第一季的部分折舊成本。

Now you're looking into deep into our accounts, okay.

現在你正在深入調查我們的帳戶，好吧。

Sure.

當然。

That's standard accounting procedure.

這是標準的會計程序。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

The second question is, I remember two years ago TSMC provided 28-nanometer per 1,000 wafer investment is about for $120m.

第二個問題是，我記得兩年前台積電提供的28奈米每1000片晶圓投資大約是1.2億美元。

Can we have rough color for 20-nanometer investment per 1,000 wafer and 16-nanometer investment for 1,000 wafer?

1000片晶圓投資20奈米，1000片晶圓投資16奈米，能有粗彩嗎？

I haven't reviewed the numbers lately.

我最近沒有查看這些數字。

So I don't -- can't give you an exact number.

所以我不能給你一個確切的數字。

Design, design, is that right?

設計，設計，是嗎？

Are you talking about per design?

你是在談論每個設計嗎？

CapEx per k.

每千資本支出。

CapEx, CapEx.

資本支出，資本支出。

CapEx per k.

每千資本支出。

CapEx, so you're asking what the CapEx per --

資本支出，所以你問的是資本支出是多少——

1,000 wafer.

1,000 片晶圓。

For what?

為了什麼？

20-nanometer and 16-nanometer.

20奈米和16奈米。

Okay.

好的。

It's around -- approximately 20% higher than 28, yes.

是的，比 28 大約高 20%。

So but 28 has been reduced since -- you heard the number, okay.

但從那時起 28 已經減少了——你聽到這個數字了，好吧。

Okay.

好的。

And it's -- sure, I mean, my goodness, it's a key parameter for us.

當然，我的意思是，天哪，這對我們來說是一個關鍵參數。

Capital expenditure per 1,000 wafers per month capacity.

每月每 1,000 片晶圓產能的資本支出。

That's a very, very critical parameter for us.

這對我們來說是一個非常非常關鍵的參數。

And it's also something that we would love to know about our competitor.

這也是我們很想了解我們的競爭對手的一些事情。

So -- and we try very hard; we have standing programs, standing projects that reduce it.

所以——我們非常努力；我們有常設計劃、常設項目來減少它。

And so when we told you what the 28-nanometer CapEx per k per month was -- what did we tell you?

因此，當我們告訴您每月每 k 28 奈米資本支出是多少時，我們告訴了您什麼？

$120m for 28.

28 人 1.2 億美元。

$100 what?

100 美元什麼？

$120m.

1.2 億美元。

That's been reduced --

已經減少了——

For 28.

28歲。

Yes, it has been reduced since then, yes.

是的，從那時起它已經減少了，是的。

Yes, but the 20, and I'm telling you now, the 20 is approximately 20%.

是的，但20，我現在告訴你，20大約是20%。

How about 16?

16歲怎麼樣？

Earlier you said 20 and 16 (multiple speakers).

之前您說過 20 和 16（多位發言者）。

We regard them almost as one node you know.

我們幾乎將它們視為您知道的一個節點。

Okay good.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's about 20% but it's not 20% above the $120m or whatever you -- because the $120m has been reduced okay.

大約是 20%，但並沒有比 1.2 億美元高出 20% 或其他什麼——因為 1.2 億美元已經減少了。

Okay.

好的。

The next question will come from the call.

下一個問題將來自電話會議。

Operator please proceed to the next caller.

接線生請轉接下一個來電者。

Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，薩斯奎哈納。

Thanks.

謝謝。

My first question for Dr. Chang, have you seen any changes to your Q1 rolling forecast, particularly from some of your customers that have exposure to China and specifically post the holidays, post the early October holidays?

我向張博士提出的第一個問題是，您是否看到第一季滾動預測有任何變化，特別是來自一些與中國有業務往來的客戶，特別是在假期後、十月初假期後？

Mehdi, your first question is do we see any change in our rolling forecast for 1Q, 2014 given our Chinese customers' business after their Golden Week?

Mehdi，您的第一季度是，考慮到中國客戶黃金週後的業務，我們對 2014 年第一季的滾動預測是否有任何變化？

That's right?

這是正確的？

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Q1.

Q1.

Yes, that's the question, yes.

是的，這就是問題，是的。

You want to answer that question, Lora.

你想回答這個問題，蘿拉。

It's hard to link that to a Chinese lunar New Year, but of course the 1Q forecast constantly changing and also the fourth quarter is changing.

很難將其與中國農曆新年聯繫起來，但當然第一季的預測不斷變化，第四季也在變化。

So if you want to say versus fourth quarter number, it's kind of fluid.

因此，如果你想說的是與第四季的數據相比，它是不穩定的。

So we don't see much changes; that's the simple answer to your question.

所以我們沒有看到太多變化；這就是你問題的簡單答案。

Great.

偉大的。

Mehdi, do you still have another question?

邁赫迪，您還有其他問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And then actually for Lora, you were talking about the unit cost at 20-nanometer pretty competitive to a 28, even though depreciation is going up by 20% but unit cost is competitive.

實際上，對於 Lora，您談論的是 20 奈米的單位成本與 28 奈米相比相當有競爭力，儘管折舊增加了 20%，但單位成本具有競爭力。

What about 16-nanometer?

16奈米呢？

Would the unit cost actually go down because 16-nanometer is a true shrink compared to 20-nanometer?

因為 16 奈米與 20 奈米相比確實縮小了，單位成本實際上會下降嗎？

I think Mehdi's question is you want us to comment on the unit cost between 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer; unit cost of 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer.

我認為 Mehdi 的問題是您希望我們對 20 奈米和 16 奈米之間的單位成本發表評論； 20奈米和16奈米的單位成本。

Well, unit cost of 16-nanometer is projected to be higher than unit cost of 20-nanometer, but you're talking about in terms of cost or price?

嗯，16 奈米的單位成本預計會高於 20 奈米的單位成本，但你說的是成本還是價格？

Cost.

成本。

Cost right now, yes, it's still projected to be higher than 20-nanometer.

目前的成本，是的，預計仍將高於 20 奈米。

Okay, let's come back to the floor.

好吧，讓我們回到地板上。

The next question I think will come from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

我認為下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Hi Dr. Chang.

你好，張醫生。

I want to just start with a very broad question.

我想從一個非常廣泛的問題開始。

You said earlier, when you came back as CEO, that it required a different strategy for TSMC.

您之前說過，當您重新擔任執行長時，台積電需要採取不同的策略。

Now that we are here in the next three to five years do you see any changes that you need to implement as far as TSMC's strategy for the next couple of years?

現在我們已經在未來三到五年了，您認為台積電未來幾年的策略需要實施什麼改變嗎？

Whether we will have a different strategy for the next two years?

未來兩年我們是否會有不同的策略？

Or any changes --

或任何改變——

Any change.

任何改變。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, I think not a different direction but I think we modify our tactics almost all the time.

是的，我認為沒有不同的方向，但我認為我們幾乎一直在修改我們的戰術。

The general direction I think will stay the same.

我認為整體方向將保持不變。

The general direction is -- but this is technology -- ours is a technology business and we want to lead in technology.

總體方向是——但這就是技術——我們是一家技術企業，我們希望在技術方面處於領先地位。

Now, however, to allow that, we have to generate enough income from the existing products, existing technologies and therefore we need a good structural profitability.

然而，現在要做到這一點，我們必須從現有產品、現有技術中產生足夠的收入，因此我們需要良好的結構性獲利能力。

Now, I -- so once we have good structural profitability, we push on the expenses, we push on expanding our R&D capability to the limit.

現在，一旦我們擁有良好的結構性獲利能力，我們就會增加開支，將我們的研發能力擴大到極限。

And, of course, to realize all the benefits that technology leadership brings in, we also expand our capacity, our manufacturing capability with the industry.

當然，為了實現技術領先帶來的所有好處，我們也擴大了我們的產能，我們的產業製造能力。

That has been the general direction, all right?

這就是大方向，好嗎？

And at the same time, in order to make sure that we have customers, large customers all the time, we -- as I said we work every day to earn the customers' trust.

同時，為了確保我們始終擁有客戶、大客戶，正如我所說，我們每天都在努力贏得客戶的信任。

So all this is a integrated whole.

所以這一切是一個完整的整體。

So that general direction does not change.

所以大方向不會改變。

Now, as far as the tactics are concerned, they change quite often.

現在，就戰術而言，他們經常改變。

How much emphasis do we put on one technology versus another -- particularly the specialty technology, how much do we put on one versus another, how much really can we afford to expand R&D and how much emphasis we could put on one customer versus another.

與另一種技術相比，我們對一種技術的重視程度如何——特別是專業技術，與另一種技術相比，我們對一種技術的重視程度如何，我們真正能夠承擔多少擴大研發的費用，以及與另一位客戶相比，我們可以對一個客戶給予多少重視。

Those change all the time, but the general direction does not change.

這些一直在變化，但大方向不會改變。

The general direction is how we described it.

大方向就是我們所描述的。

First, you have to have good structural profitability.

首先，你必須要有良好的結構性獲利能力。

Then you push to expand, to strengthen R&D to the limit of your affordability and then, to realize the benefits that technology leadership brings you, you expand manufacturing.

然後，你推動擴張，加強研發，達到你的承受能力的極限，然後，為了實現技術領先地位帶給你的好處，你擴大製造。

So, I mean, just -- then, if you have listened to what I said, you will begin to understand why our R&D expenses have gone up, why we have emphasized so much technology leadership and why our capital expenditures have gone up so much.

所以，我的意思是，那麼，如果你聽了我說的話，你就會開始理解為什麼我們的研發費用增加了，為什麼我們如此強調技術領先，為什麼我們的資本支出增加了這麼多。

Okay?

好的？

Is there another question?

還有其他問題嗎？

Yes, there is a very quick one.

是的，有一個非常快的。

The Stion write-off, can you talk about whether that means a change in strategy in the solar business or what exactly is happening here?

Stion註銷，您能談談這是否意味著太陽能業務策略的改變或這裡到底發生了什麼？

Stion, so what about Stion write-off?

Stion，那Stion註銷怎麼樣呢？

I'm sorry that it happened but what was your question?

很抱歉發生了這樣的事，但是您的問題是什麼？

I'm just wondering what it means for TSMC's solar business overall.

我只是想知道這對台積電整個太陽能業務意味著什麼。

I can take that one, Chairman.

我可以接受那個，主席。

Yes.

是的。

Stion is the technology investment that we did in 2010 for the purpose to (inaudible) license the CIGS technology.

Stion 是我們在 2010 年進行的技術投資，目的是（聽不清楚）CIGS 技術的授權。

And we did that so we have -- it's a core technology developed ourselves and it has been quite successful so there is no change in that front.

我們這樣做了，所以我們擁有了——這是我們自己開發的核心技術，而且非常成功，所以這方面沒有任何變化。

The write-down is just because the Company has decided not to continue to operations, so we had to take it out from our books, but since we had their technology and it's protected so it's no impact to our solar strategy and business.

減記只是因為公司決定不再繼續運營，所以我們不得不將其從我們的帳簿中刪除，但由於我們擁有他們的技術並且它受到保護，所以這對我們的太陽能策略和業務沒有影響。

All right.

好的。

I know there are still people waiting on the queue from the call so operator please proceed to the next caller.

我知道仍有人在排隊等待通話，因此接線員請轉接下一個呼叫者。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究公司。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Dr. Chang, if we go back to fourth quarter 2012, I think you said back then, after the first year of ramping 28-nanometer, that the gross margins were at or above corporate average.

張博士，如果我們回到 2012 年第四季度，我想您當時說過，在 28 奈米技術快速發展的第一年之後，毛利率達到或高於企業平均水平。

Can you just give us your impression how do you see 20-nanometer playing out?

您能告訴我們您對 20 奈米技術的看法嗎？

Should we expect we get the same gross margin level, so at or above corporate average by the end of 2014?

我們是否應該預期到 2014 年底我們能獲得相同的毛利率水平，達到或高於企業平均？

What will the 20-nanometer gross margin be at the end of 2014?

2014年底20奈米毛利率是多少？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Our 28-nanometer it took seven or eight quarters for the gross margin to reach to the corporate average and it has happened in the first quarter of this year.

我們28奈米毛利率花了七、八個季度才達到企業平均水平，今年第一季就達到了。

We believe the 20-nanometer will follow the same pattern.

我們相信 20 奈米也會遵循同樣的模式。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And just --

只是——

(multiple speakers) 28-nanometer reached corporate average when?

（多位發言者）28奈米何時達到企業平均？

Seven to eight quarters.

七到八個季度。

Seven, eight quarters and she is saying that 20-nanometer will follow the same pattern.

七、八個季度，她說 20 奈米將遵循相同的模式。

I tend to think that 20-nanometer will reach the corporate average sooner than eight quarters because, as I said earlier, the learning curve is faster up to this point than 28-nanometer's.

我傾向於認為 20 奈米將在八個季度內達到企業平均水平，因為正如我之前所說，到目前為止的學習曲線比 28 奈米更快。

So I think that will continue and in fact I think that it's almost necessary for 20-nanometer to run faster because the ramp-up is very fast; the ramp-up is faster than 28-nanometers.

所以我認為這種情況將會持續下去，事實上我認為 20 奈米幾乎有必要運行得更快，因為上升速度非常快；加速速度比 28 奈米更快。

So in time it will have to take a shorter time for 20-nanometer to reach corporate average.

因此，隨著時間的推移，20 奈米技術將需要更短的時間才能達到企業平均值。

So I think it would -- I cannot answer you exactly what it will be by the end of next year because the end of next year will only be the third or fourth quarter, but I do say that it will be -- the gross margin will be higher than the 28-nanometer was at its third or fourth quarter.

所以我認為，我無法準確回答你明年年底的情況，因為明年年底只會是第三或第四季度，但我確實說會是——毛利率將高於28 納米第三季度或第四季度的水平。

Got it, yes.

明白了，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And just a follow up, I think you talked earlier about unit cost and we can all see at 20-nanometer this is the first node you start multi-patterning and, since that will be expensive, if you're expecting to maintain your structural profitability and the costs arising, what do you think the impact of this is going to have on the mobile value chain?

後續，我想你之前談到了單位成本，我們都可以看到，在 20 奈米，這是你開始多重圖案化的第一個節點，因為如果你希望維持你的結構，那麼這將是昂貴的盈利能力和產生的成本，您認為這將對行動價值鏈產生什麼影響？

Do you think the mobile market can absorb a cost increase, or do you think that chip prices are structurally going to start rising?

您認為行動市場能夠吸收成本上漲，還是認為晶片價格將開始結構性上漲？

How do you see the ripple effect from the inflation at leading edge that's coming?

您如何看待即將到來的前沿通膨帶來的連鎖反應？

Okay.

好的。

Brett has a very profound question.

布雷特有一個非常深刻的問題。

Seeing that our 20-nanometer was using -- it was using double-patterning and 16-nanometer was using FinFETs, both are expensive so it is going to have the impact to the mobile value chain.

我們的 20 奈米製程使用的是雙圖案化，而 16 奈米製程使用的是 FinFET，兩者都很昂貴，因此將對移動價值鏈產生影響。

So how will the mobile products absorb these higher prices or costs?

那麼行動產品將如何消化這些更高的價格或成本呢？

So what happens to the value chain?

那麼價值鏈會發生什麼變化呢？

Well, the -- actually I can talk for hours about this, but the -- I believe that the supply chain value, the price, the end price, the end price to consumers is a pretty elastic one.

嗯，實際上我可以花幾個小時談論這個問題，但是我相信供應鏈價值、價格、最終價格、對消費者的最終價格是一個相當有彈性的價值。

That means that the lower the price, the more you sell.

這意味著價格越低，賣得越多。

And now, if you are constrained by the cost, your price will have to be at the certain level and you will sell less.

而現在，如果你受到成本的限制，你的價格就必須達到某個水平，你的銷售就會減少。

Now, of course, everybody wants to push it to a lower price so that they can sell more, but it's not a simple matter of being able to afford it or not being able to afford it.

當然現在大家都想壓低價格，這樣可以賣得更多，但這不是買得起或買不起的簡單問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

I think we will go --

我想我們會去——

It is a matter of competition, we just want to be -- our cost to be lower than competition's.

這是一個競爭問題，我們只是希望我們的成本低於競爭對手。

I come back to the story of two people in the camp and a bear, a big bear is approaching.

我回到營地裡兩個人和一隻熊的故事，一隻大熊正在逼近。

And the first person quickly puts on his running shoes and the second person says what's the use, the bear's going to outrun you anyway; it's going to run faster than you anyway.

第一個人迅速穿上跑鞋，第二個人說有什麼用，反正熊會跑過你的；無論如何它都會比你跑得更快。

And the first person then starts to run and -- or he paused, he says to the second person, all I have to do is to run faster than you, not the bear, you know.

然後第一個人開始跑，然後——或者他停了下來，他對第二個人說，我所要做的就是跑得比你快，而不是比熊跑得快，你知道。

So this price and costing, all you have to do is to run faster than the competitor.

所以這個價格和成本，你要做的就是跑得比競爭對手快。

Okay.

好的。

From the floor there are a couple of media people in the back and they are raising their hands.

地板上後面有幾個媒體人，他們舉起了手。

So we'll give you the microphone but you'll please identify yourself.

因此，我們將為您提供麥克風，但請您表明自己的身份。

This is the last question.

這是最後一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

I enjoy this but I think that every good thing -- just, as the Chinese say, every feast comes to an end.

我喜歡這樣，但我認為天下沒有不散的宴席——正如中國人所說，逢筵席都會有結束的時候。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I'm a reporter from UDN TV.

我是UDN電視台的記者。

I just have two questions for you.

我只有兩個問題想問你。

The first question being that you have gone quite into the TSMC outlook on the fourth quarter and the first quarter in the next year, but people are quite concerned about the current economy and with the complications in US.

第一個問題是，您對台積電第四季和明年第一季的前景進行了深入探討，但人們對當前的經濟和美國的複雜情況非常擔憂。

And would you like to share your wisdom on maybe the next year's economy outlook and if it has an effect -- would it affect your expectation of TSMC in the next year?

您想分享一下您對明年經濟前景的看法嗎？

Global economic outlook for next year?

明年全球經濟前景如何？

Well, my goodness.

好吧，天哪。

I am -- I don't know what our Company official forecast is.

我——我不知道我們公司的官方預測是什麼。

Our Company forecasts that this year it's 2.5% global GDP and next year it's 2.8% global GDP growth, growth.

我們公司預測今年全球 GDP 成長 2.5%，明年全球 GDP 成長 2.8%。

That's consistent with my feel.

這和我的感覺是一致的。

I think that things are slowly improving.

我認為事情正在慢慢改善。

I think the US, I think, in spite of the short-term problem, which I think probably faces a pretty quick resolution, is -- the US is on recovery path.

我認為，儘管存在短期問題，但我認為美國可能很快就會解決，但美國正走在復甦之路上。

I look at the new job creation, I look at the housing prices and I look at the -- well, those are the two main things I look at, new job creation and housing prices, the housing market really.

我專注於新的就業機會創造，我專注於房價，我關注——嗯，這是我關注的兩個主要內容，新的就業機會創造和房價，真正的房地產市場。

So those things tell me that US is on a recovery -- continues to be on a recovery path.

所以這些事情告訴我，美國正在復甦──繼續走在復甦的道路上。

Europe I think actually is not doing any worse, anyway, and Japan I think is doing better.

無論如何，我認為歐洲實際上並沒有做得更糟，而我認為日本做得更好。

And China I think is going to be successful in a soft landing, you might say.

你可能會說，我認為中國將成功實現軟著陸。

Okay?

好的？

So I think I'm optimistic.

所以我認為我很樂觀。

So intuitively I think that the 2.5%, 2.8% forecast which means that next year will be somewhat better than this year, intuitively I think it's about right.

所以直覺上我認為2.5%、2.8%的預測意味著明年會比今年好一些，直覺上我認為這是對的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

My second question being that of course Chairman Chang has just told us when the CEO succession will be announced, but people are quite curious about who will be next in line.

我的第二個問題是，張主席當然剛剛告訴我們執行長繼任者何時公佈，但人們很好奇誰將是下一個繼任者。

Would that be a current operating -- chief operating officer in the Company or can we expect someone else from outside of the Company?

這是公司現任營運長還是我們可以期待公司外部的其他人？

Well, the logical candidates are the two COOs.

嗯，合乎邏輯的候選人是兩位營運長。

I think those are the logical candidates, yes.

是的，我認為這些是合乎邏輯的候選人。

And was there another question?

還有其他問題嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

As Chairman said, all the good things must come to an end, so we will end here.

正如主席所說，天下沒有不散的宴席，所以我們就到這裡結束吧。

But before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that this replay of the conference will be accessible two hours from now, transcript will be available within 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

但在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議重播將在兩小時後提供，會議記錄將在 24 小時內提供，兩者均可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Good bye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。