台積電 ADR (TSM) 2014 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's second quarter 2014 earnings conference and conference call. This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today. Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. (Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

歡迎參加台積電 2014 年第二季財報會議及電話會議。我是台積電企業傳訊總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。 （操作員說明） 由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Miss Lora Ho will summarize our operations in the second quarter, followed by our guidance for the third quarter. Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang will provide a couple of key messages. Then we will begin the Q&A session where TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will join Chairman Chang and Miss Ho in responding to your questions.

今天活動的形式如下。首先，台積電高級副總裁兼財務長Lora Ho小姐將總結我們第二季的營運情況，然後是我們對第三季的指導。隨後，台積電董事長張忠謀博士將提供幾個關鍵資訊。然後我們將開始問答環節，台積電的兩位聯合執行長劉馬克博士和 C.C.魏先生將與張主席和何小姐一起回答大家的問題。

For those participants on the call who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的電話會議參與者，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載該新聞稿。另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Miss Lora Ho.

現在我想請台積電財務長何洛拉女士發言。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I will start my presentation with the financial highlights for the second quarter followed by the guidance for the third quarter.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我將首先介紹第二季的財務亮點，然後介紹第三季的指導。

Second quarter 2014 is a record quarter for TSMC, both in revenue and in net income. In this quarter, we saw strong demand for our wafers across all major segments. Our revenue increased 23.5% sequentially and 17% year over year to reach TWD183b.

2014年第二季對於台積電來說，無論是在營收或淨利上都是創紀錄的季度。在本季度，我們看到所有主要領域對晶圓的需求強勁。我們的營收季增 23.5%，年增 17%，達到 183b 新台幣。

On the profitability side, gross margin was 49.8%, 2.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. The higher margin was mainly driven by higher capacity utilization, partially offset by inventory valuation adjustments and a small margin dilutive effect from 20-nanometer ramp.

獲利能力方面，毛利率為49.8%，較第一季提升2.3個百分點。利潤率上升主要是由於產能利用率提高，部分被庫存估值調整和 20 奈米產能提升帶來的小幅利潤攤薄效應所抵消。

Operating margin was 38.6%, up 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter, reflecting an improved operating efficiency for the Company.

營業利益率為38.6%，較一季上升3.2個百分點，反映公司經營效率改善。

During the second quarter, we recorded a TWD2b disposal gain from the sale of Vanguard International Semiconductor Company's shares.

第二季度，我們透過出售先鋒國際半導體公司的股票獲得了新台幣 2b 的處置收益。

We also saw a big jump in the corporate tax rate from 10.4% in the first quarter to 19.8% in the second quarter. The 9.4 percentage point increase was attributed to the accrual of retained earnings tax which is incurred in the second quarter every year. We estimate our full-year tax rate for 2014 will be about 13%.

我們也看到企業稅率從第一季的10.4%大幅躍升至第二季的19.8%。 9.4個百分點的成長歸因於每年第二季產生的留存盈餘稅的應計額。我們預計2014年全年稅率約為13%。

Overall, the second quarter EPS was TWD2.30 and ROE was 26.9%.

整體而言，第二季EPS為新台幣2.30，ROE為26.9%。

Let's take a look at the revenue breakdown by application. Our revenue from all major segments increased sequentially in the second quarter. Compared to the first quarter, communication increased 19%; computer increased 14%; consumer increased 31% and industrial-related revenue increased 25% during the second quarter.

讓我們來看看按應用程式劃分的收入細分。第二季我們所有主要部門的營收均較上季成長。與第一季相比，通訊量成長19%；電腦增加14%；第二季消費者營收成長 31%，工業相關收入成長 25%。

By technology, our 28-nanometer grew more than 30% from the previous quarter. Its contribution to our total wafer revenue increased from 34% in the first quarter to 37% in the second quarter. Combining the two advanced technology nodes, 28-nanometer and 45-nanometer, we derived 56% of the total revenue in the second quarter.

從技術上來說，我們的28奈米比上季成長了30%以上。它對我們晶圓總收入的貢獻從第一季的34%增加到第二季的37%。結合28奈米和45奈米這兩個先進技術節點，我們獲得了第二季總收入的56%。

Now let's move to the balance sheet. Cash and marketable securities reached TWD315b at the end of the second quarter. Our cash increased TWD23b during the quarter, while our marketable securities increased TWD58b as we reclassified certain long-term investments to short-term marketable securities.

現在讓我們轉向資產負債表。第二季末現金和有價證券達到新台幣315b。本季我們的現金增加了 TWD23b，而我們的有價證券增加了 TWD58b，因為我們將某些長期投資重新分類為短期有價證券。

Current liabilities increased by TWD72b as we accrued TWD78b for the cash dividends in the second quarter.

流動負債增加了新台幣 72 元，因為我們為第二季的現金股息提列了新台幣 78 元。

Accounts receivable turnover days decreased 5 days to 40 days. As our revenue increased at a much faster pace than average accounts receivable in the second quarter, days of inventory decreased 1 day to 51 days.

應收帳款週轉天數減少5天至40天。由於第二季我們的營收成長速度遠高於平均應收帳款，庫存天數減少了 1 天至 51 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated TWD82b cash from operations, invested TWD73b in capital expenditure and borrowed TWD10b short-term loans for hedging purpose. At the end of the second quarter, our cash balance increased TWD23b to reach TWD255b. Free cash flow for the second quarter was an inflow of TWD8b.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第二季度，我們從營運中產生了 TWD82b 現金，將 TWD73b 投資於資本支出，並藉入 TWD10b 短期貸款用於對沖目的。第二季末，我們的現金餘額增加了 TWD23b，達到 TWD255b。第二季自由現金流流入新台幣8b。

In US dollars, our second quarter CapEx was $2.4b. That makes our CapEx totaled $6.2b for the first half of the year. Our full year CapEx budget remains in the range between $9.5b and $10b.

以美元計算，我們第二季的資本支出為 2.4b 美元。這使得我們今年上半年的資本支出總計 6.2b 美元。我們的全年資本支出預算維持在 9.5 億美元到 10 億美元之間。

Regarding our capacity, we now expect to increase our capacity by 11% from last year. This is a small increase from the 10% growth as we forecasted earlier and it is mainly derived from our productivity improvement. Total annual capacity is expected to reach 8.1m 12-inch equivalent wafers this year.

關於我們的產能，我們現在預計產能將比去年增加 11%。這與我們先前預測的 10% 的成長相比略有成長，這主要源自於我們生產力的提高。預計今年總產能將達到810萬片12吋當量晶圓。

I have finished my report on the financial progress. Now let me turn to the third quarter outlook. Based on our market outlook and the business exchange rate -- and forecast exchange rate of 29.81, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between TWD206b and TWD209b, representing between 12.6% and 14.2% sequential growth. Gross margin is expected to be between 48.5% and 50.5% and operating margin is expected to be between 38.5% and 40.5%.

我已經完成了財務進度報告。現在讓我談談第三季的展望。根據我們的市場前景和業務匯率以及 29.81 的預測匯率，我們預計第三季營收將在新台幣 206b 至新台幣 209b 之間，季增 12.6% 至 14.2%。毛利率預計在48.5%至50.5%之間，營業利益率預計在38.5%至40.5%之間。

This concludes my remarks. Let me turn the podium to our Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang.

我的發言到此結束。讓我請主席張忠謀博士發言。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I want to make a few comments on the supply chain inventory situation and the second-half demand and then a few words on 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer progress and then a few words on 10-nanometer progress.

女士們、先生們，午安。我想就供應鏈庫存情況和下半年需求發表一些評論，然後談談20納米和16納米的進展，然後談談10納米的進展。

First, on supply chain inventory and second-half demand, our second quarter was record-breaking in revenue, operating income and net income. We have noted in past investor conferences that supply chain inventory dipped to a low point at the end of last year. The past six months have seen a rebuilding of inventory which partially explains the strength of demand in the period.

首先，從供應鏈庫存和下半年需求來看，我們第二季的營收、營業收入和淨利都創下歷史新高。我們在過去的投資者會議上註意到，供應鏈庫存在去年底跌至低點。過去六個月庫存已重建，這在一定程度上解釋了這段時期的需求強勁。

We estimate that the supply chain inventory has returned to seasonal level at mid-year, from a very low point at the end of last year to seasonal level at mid-year. We further estimate that it will actually continue to build through the third quarter and DOI will be 2 days above seasonal at the end of third quarter. But then we estimate that DOI will decrease and will be at 2 days below seasonal at the end of the year.

我們預計，供應鏈庫存在年中已經恢復到季節性水平，從去年底的極低點恢復到年中的季節性水平。我們進一步估計，它實際上將在第三季度繼續增長，並且 DOI 將在第三季末比季節性高 2 天。但我們預計 DOI 將會下降，到年底將比季節性低 2 天。

So last six months have seen a rebuilding of inventory and at mid-year, it's about seasonal level. It will continue to build some, modestly to 2 days above seasonal at the end of third quarter and then it will dip to 2 days below seasonal at the end of fourth quarter. So, one might characterize the next six months as a period of cautious inventory management by the supply chain.

因此，過去六個月庫存出現了重建，而到了年中，庫存就達到了季節性水準。到第三季末，它將繼續增加一些，略高於季節性兩天，然後在第四季末下降到季節性以下兩天。因此，人們可能會將未來六個月描述為供應鏈謹慎管理庫存的時期。

However, the widespread adoption of 4G LTE tends to increase the demand of our 28 and 20 technologies. Overall, we're guiding third quarter to be another record-breaking quarter as Lora just said. It will be another record-breaking quarter in revenue, operating income and net income.

然而，4G LTE 的廣泛採用往往會增加我們對 28 和 20 技術的需求。總體而言，正如洛拉剛才所說，我們預計第三季將成為另一個破紀錄的季度。這將是收入、營業收入和淨利潤方面又一個破紀錄的季度。

Also at this point because of our strength in 20-SoC and our strength in 28, 4Q appears to be a sequential growth quarter also. 4Q appears to be a sequential growth quarter also.

同樣在這一點上，由於我們在 20-SoC 和 28 SoC 方面的優勢，第四季度似乎也是一個連續成長的季度。第四季似乎也是一個連續成長的季度。

Now a few words on 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer progress. In the last two and half to three years, 28-nanometer technology has driven our growth. In the next three years, 20 and 16-nanometer technologies are going to drive our growth; 28 in the last two and half to three, 20 and 16 in the next three.

現在簡單介紹一下 20 奈米和 16 奈米的進展。在過去的兩年半到三年裡，28奈米技術推動了我們的成長。未來三年，20奈米和16奈米技術將推動我們的成長；後兩半為28比三，後三比為20和16。

After two years of meticulous preparation, we began volume shipments of our 20-nanometer wafers in June. The steepness of our 20-nanometer ramp sets a record. We expect 20-nanometer to generate about 10% of our wafer revenue in the third quarter and more than 20% of our wafer revenue in the fourth quarter. And we expect the demand for 20-nanometer will remain strong and will continue to contribute more than 20% of our wafer revenue in 2015. It will reach 20% of our total wafer revenue in the fourth quarter of this year and it will be above 20% of our total wafer revenue next year.

經過兩年的精心準備，我們的20奈米晶圓於6月開始大量出貨。我們 20 奈米斜坡的陡度創下了記錄。我們預計 20 奈米將在第三季占我們晶圓收入的 10% 左右，在第四季占我們晶圓收入的 20% 以上。而我們預計20奈米的需求將保持強勁，並將繼續貢獻我們2015年晶圓收入的20%以上。收入的20%。

The 16-nanometer development leverages off 20-SoC learning and is moving forward smoothly. Our 16-nanometer is more than competitive, combining performance, density and yields considerations. 16-nanometer applications cover a wide range including baseband, application processors, consumer SoCs, GPU, network processors, hard disk drive, FPGA, servers and CPUs. Volume production of 16-nanometer is expected to begin in late 2015 and there will be a fast ramp up in 2016. The ecosystem for 16-nanometer designs is current and ready.

16 奈米開發利用了 20 SoC 的學習成果，進展順利。我們的 16 奈米技術不僅具有競爭力，而且結合了性能、密度和良率的考量。 16奈米應用涵蓋廣泛，包括基頻、應用處理器、消費性SoC、GPU、網路處理器、硬碟、FPGA、伺服器和CPU。 16 奈米設計預計將於 2015 年底開始量產，並在 2016 年實現快速成長。

A few years ago, in order to take advantage of special market opportunities, we chose to develop 20-SoC first and then quickly follow with 16-nanometer. We chose this sequence to maximize our market share in the 20/16-nanometer generation. As the 20/16 foundry competition unfolds, we believe our decision to have been correct.

幾年前，為了把握特殊的市場機會，我們選擇先開發20-SoC，然後快速跟進16奈米。我們選擇這個序列是為了最大化我們在 20/16 奈米世代的市佔率。隨著20/16代工競賽的展開，我們相信我們的決定是正確的。

Number one, in 20-SoC, we believe we will enjoy overwhelmingly large share in 2014, 2015 and onwards.

第一，在 20-SoC 領域，我們相信我們將在 2014 年、2015 年及以後享有壓倒性的巨大份額。

Number two, in 16-nanometer, TSMC will have a smaller market share than a major competitor in 2015. But we'll regain leading share in 2016, 2017 and onwards.

第二，在16奈米領域，2015年台積電的市佔率將小於主要競爭對手。

Number three, if you look at the combined 20 and 16 technologies, TSMC will have an overwhelming leading share every year from 2014 on.

第三，如果將 20 項和 16 項技術加起來，台積電從 2014 年開始每年都會佔據壓倒性的領先份額。

Number four, in total foundry market share, after having jumped 4 percentage points in 2013, TSMC will again gain several percentage points in 2014. This is the total foundry market share covering all technologies. After having increased 4 percentage points last year, TSMC will gain another several percentage points this year.

第四，在整體晶圓代工市佔率中，台積電在2013年躍升了4個百分點之後，2014年將再次提升幾個百分點。繼去年成長4個百分點後，台積電今年將再成長幾個百分點。

Now a few words about 10-nanometer. The 10-nanometer development is progressing well. The 10-nanometer speed is 25% faster than the 16-nanometer. The power consumption is 45% less than 16-nanometer and the gate density is 2.2x that of the 16-nanometer. Power is 25% faster. Did I say power? I meant speed. Speed is 25% faster, power is 45% less, gate density 2.2 times more, all compared with 16-nanometer.

現在簡單介紹一下 10 奈米。 10奈米開發進展順利。 10奈米速度比16奈米快25%。功耗比16奈米減少45%，閘極密度是16奈米的2.2倍。電源速度快 25%。我有說權力嗎？我指的是速度。與 16 奈米相比，速度提高了 25%，功耗降低了 45%，閘極密度提高了 2.2 倍。

We work closely with our key customers to co-optimize our 10-nanometer process and design. We expect to have customer tape outs in the second half of 2015.

我們與主要客戶密切合作，共同優化我們的 10 奈米製程和設計。我們預計客戶將在 2015 年下半年進行流片。

Those are all my prepared comments. I believe we are ready for Q&A.

這些都是我準備好的評論。我相信我們已經準備好要進行問答了。

Yes, this concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions).

是的，我們準備好的發言到此結束。 （操作員說明）。

He has one already. He has raised his hand.

他已經有一個了。他舉起了手。

All right. So I think Chairman wants Randy, right? Okay, Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的。所以我認為主席想要蘭迪，對嗎？好的，瑞士信貸，蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Randy, yes.

蘭迪，是的。

I appreciate you calling me first. I'm sorry to harp on one negative with all the results quite good. I wonder if you could elaborate on your comments on 16-nanometer, where you talked about your market share next year being lower than a competitor. If you could talk about why you think that plays out, the potential impact of that and then confidence to regain share. Like what's driving confidence to regain share the following year.

我很感激你先打電話給我。我很抱歉一直在談論一個負面的事情，因為所有的結果都很好。我不知道你能否詳細說明你對16奈米的評論，你談到你明年的市佔率低於競爭對手。如果你能談談你認為這種情況發生的原因、其潛在影響，以及重新獲得市場佔有率的信心。例如是什麼推動人們信心在來年重新獲得市場份額。

Would you repeat that question, Elizabeth?

伊莉莎白，你能重複這個問題嗎？

Sure. Randy's question is with respect to Chairman's comment on 2015's market share is lower than a major competitor in 2015. So Randy's asking why will it be lower and what is the impact to TSMC if we have a lower market share. And what gives us the confidence that we will regain the market share in following year?

當然。 Randy的問題是關於董事長對2015年市佔率低於主要競爭對手2015年的評論。是什麼讓我們有信心明年重新奪回市佔？

Oh, okay. Well, we need to go back to history a little bit. 32 -- 28-nanometer followed 32 and that particular major competitor that I referred to, chose 32 and skipped 28. And then of course we came to 20 and 16, 16 for us, 14 for him. And we chose to do both. Actually we chose to do 20 first and 16 about a year or so later, but it was a pretty quick succession. And this major competitor skipped 20 and went on to 16.

哦好的。好吧，我們需要稍微回顧一下歷史。 32——28納米緊跟在32之後，我提到的那個主要競爭對手選擇了32並跳過了28。我們選擇兩者都做。事實上，我們選擇先做 20 個，大約一年後做 16 個，但這是一個相當快速的連續過程。而這個主要競爭對手則跳過了 20 名，進入了 16 名。

So you ask why is our market share on 16 lower than this major competitor in 2015. Well, the answer is we got started a little late because we chose to do 20 also. And 20 turned out to be a very, very important node as I already spoke to just a few minutes ago. So we have both 20 and 16.

所以你問為什麼我們在 16 的市佔率在 2015 年低於這個主要競爭對手。正如我幾分鐘前所說的那樣，20 被證明是一個非常非常重要的節點。所以我們有 20 和 16。

Now how can we be sure that we'll regain 16 share in 2016? Well, the answer is that the technologies these days, you just have to engage with the customers way in advance, like about two years in advance before you get orders. So you talk with the -- you discuss with the customers, the customers follow your technical progress and then the customers give you tape outs and you have to qualify the tape outs etc., etc. The whole process is about two years in advance of actual delivery, volume delivery.

現在我們如何確定我們將在 2016 年重新獲得 16 的份額？嗯，答案是，現在的技術，你只需要提前與客戶接觸，例如在收到訂單之前提前大約兩年。所以你和客戶討論，客戶跟踪你的技術進步，然後客戶給你流片，你必須驗證流片的資格等等。

So how can I be sure that we'll regain share in 2016? Well, this is the middle of 2014, about two years ahead of 2016. I think I have a pretty good idea of how much order I am going to get in 2016.

那麼我該如何確定我們會在 2016 年重新獲得市場份額呢？嗯，現在是 2014 年中期，大約比 2016 年提前兩年。

Just on the impact to TSMC, if you could talk about how material the revenue impact of that market share, because you'll be doing 20 in high volume. So how much impact potentially, the potential to outgrow the industry or how much revenue impact from this market share loss on 16 initially?

就對台積電的影響而言，您能否談談該市場份額對收入的影響有多大，因為您將大量生產 20 個。那麼，16 最初的市佔率損失有多大的潛在影響、超越產業發展的潛力或對收入的影響有多大？

Would you repeat that question, Elizabeth?

伊莉莎白，你能重複這個問題嗎？

So, Randy, your question is in 2015 since we will lose some market share at the 16-nanometer, so what's the impact to us in revenue, if we do not have that part of the business.

所以，Randy，你的問題是在 2015 年，因為我們將失去 16 奈米的一些市場份額，那麼如果我們沒有這部分業務，對我們的收入有何影響。

Your ability to outgrow the industry like you have in the past few years. Yes, either revenue impact or how you see your growth relative to industry.

你有能力像過去幾年一樣超越這個行業。是的，要么是收入影響，要么是您如何看待相對於行業的成長。

So will we be growing faster or slower than the industry next year?

那麼明年我們的成長速度會比產業更快還是慢？

Well, I don't know. I think there's too much unknown still, because we think -- I think that I have a pretty good idea of how much revenue our competitor -- foundry revenue now I'm talking about -- the foundry revenue our competitor is going to have in 2015 on the 16-nanometer. But I don't think I want to publicly say what the number is.

嗯，我不知道。我認為仍然有太多的未知數，因為我們認為——我認為我非常清楚我們的競爭對手的收入——我現在談論的是代工收入——我們的競爭對手將獲得多少收入2015年上16納米。但我認為我不想公開說出這個數字是多少。

And actually there's still a bit of uncertainty here in the number. We could get some of that, but we are going to be late. But we'll be there actually in the second half.

實際上這個數字仍然存在一些不確定性。我們可以得到一些，但我們會遲到。但我們實際上會在下半場到達那裡。

Randy, maybe we should remind you that Chairman said in his key message that 2015 our 20-nanometer will be accounting for more than 20% of our total wafer revenue. I think that would give us --

Randy，也許我們應該提醒您，董事長在關鍵訊息中表示，2015年我們的20奈米將占我們晶圓總收入的20%以上。我認為這會給我們——

I think everybody in the audience, Randy understood that and I think everybody also does so.

我想觀眾中的每個人，蘭迪都明白這一點，我想每個人也都這樣做。

Okay. I've actually got a second question.

好的。我其實還有第二個問題。

That's your -- you have three questions.

這是你的——你有三個問題。

Yes, you've got two chances already Randy. I think you wait your turn now and later --

是的，你已經有兩次機會了，蘭迪。我想你現在等一下，稍後再輪到你——

All right. Okay, next question I think would be JP Morgan's Gokul Hariharan.

好的。好的，我想下一個問題是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Gokul?

戈庫爾？

It's Gokul.

是戈庫爾。

Okay. Gokul did you say?

好的。你說的是戈庫爾嗎？

Gokul.

戈庫爾。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

Thanks for taking my question. I had a couple of questions on 10-nanometer. So since you've mentioned that 10-nanometer will start risk production in Q4 of next year, is it fair to assume that 16-nanometer as a leading edge --

感謝您提出我的問題。我有幾個關於 10 奈米的問題。既然您提到 10 奈米將在明年第四季度開始風險生產，那麼假設 16 奈米作為領先優勢是否公平——

I'm sorry, I need to interrupt. Did you say that you -- we said before when 10 --

抱歉，我需要打斷一下。你是不是說你——我們之前說過，10 歲時——

I think Chairman, you just mentioned that 10-nanometer would start risk production in the second half of next year.

我想主席您剛才提到10納米將在明年下半年開始風險生產。

No, no, no.

不不不。

Customer tape out.

客戶流片。

10, no, no, no. 16 will start volume production --

10、不，不，不。 16將開始量產——

In 2015.

2015年。

In second half of next year.

明年下半年。

Okay. So --

好的。所以 -

So I didn't say anything about 10. Don't misunderstand. That's a very important distinction, 10 and 16, yes.

所以我沒有說10，別誤會。這是一個非常重要的區別，10 和 16，是的。

So just wanted to understand what is the cadence for 16-nanometer since we are starting a bit later. Since 20 is still going to be more than 20% of revenues next year, (multiple speakers) does 16-nanometer also ramp up to be 20% plus of revenues in 2016 or is it going to be a shorter node and being overtaken by 10-nanometer maybe sometime in 2016 or 2017?

所以只是想了解 16 奈米的節奏是多少，因為我們開始得晚一些。由於明年 20 奈米仍將佔收入的 20% 以上，（多個揚聲器）16 奈米是否也會在 2016 年佔收入的 20% 以上，或者它會是一個更短的節點並被 10 奈米超越- 奈米可能會在2016 年或2017 年的某個時候？

[You will have] to repeat that.

[你必須]重複一遍。

Okay. Gokul's question is with respect to the cadence. First part is with respect to the cadence between 16-nanometer and 10 nanometer, whether or not we will have a shorter cadence or a regular cadence. And whether or not 16-nanometer will account for more than 20% of the revenue for us in 2016 or 16-nanometer will become a short node.

好的。戈庫爾的問題是關於節奏的。第一部分是關於 16 奈米和 10 奈米之間的節奏，無論我們是否會有較短的節奏或常規的節奏。而16奈米是否會占我們2016年營收的20%以上，或是16奈米會成為一個短節點。

Well, what's the second question?

那麼，第二個問題是什麼？

Whether 16-nanometer will account for more than 20% of our wafer revenue in 2016 or whether or not 16-nanometer will be very short.

2016年16奈米是否會占我們晶圓收入的20%以上，或16奈米是否會非常短缺。

I don't think I've looked at it. Have you? For 2016, I don't know what the total -- well, I think the total revenue will be higher than 2015. But exactly what it will be, I don't quite know. I'm just guessing. Really I have more problem with your question, I have more problem with the total revenue of 2016 than I do with the --

我想我沒有看過它。你？ 2016 年，我不知道總收入是多少——嗯，我認為總收入會高於 2015 年。我只是猜測。確實，我對你的問題有更多的疑問，我對 2016 年總收入的疑問比對——

Or if I rephrase this.

或者如果我重新表達一下。

16-nanometer revenue in -- yes.

16 奈米營收－是的。

Well, if I could rephrase it. Will 16 peak out lower than 20-nanometer at the --

好吧，如果我能重新表達的話。 16 的峰值會低於 20 奈米嗎——

No. I have a feeling that 16 will be as strong or a stronger node for us than 20-nanometer.

不會。

Okay. And the second question I have is on --

好的。我的第二個問題是──

I don't think we have answered your first question. Your first question was 10, what was that?

我認為我們還沒有回答你的第一個問題。你的第一個問題是10，那是什麼？

Cadence, the cadence between 16-nanometer and 10-nanometer, whether or not it will be a shorter cadence.

節奏，16奈米和10奈米之間的節奏，是否會是更短的節奏。

I just noticed that Intel said that they aren't about to talk about their 10-nanometer agenda until sometime next year. So I'm going to follow that practice, okay.

我剛剛注意到英特爾表示他們要到明年某個時候才會談論他們的 10 奈米議程。所以我會遵循這個做法，好吧。

The second question I had is in terms of capital intensity. I think this year and next year, I think capital intensity is already coming down. Should we expect a change when it comes to the next leg of investment or is it still going to be the same pattern in terms of capital intensity coming down?

我的第二個問題是資本密集度。我認為今年和明年，資本密集度已經下降。我們是否應該預期下一階段的投資會發生變化，還是資本密集度下降仍將維持相同的模式？

Capital intensity is measured by CapEx divided by revenue. Whether or not this number will be coming down or stays the same.

資本強度透過資本支出除以收入來衡量。這個數字是否會下降或保持不變。

It will be coming down.

它將會下來。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Okay. Dan Heyler, the next one from BoA Merrill Lynch.

好的。丹‧海勒 (Dan Heyler)，是美國銀行美林證券 (BoA Merrill Lynch) 的下一位。

Thank you. Thank you, Chairman and team. I wanted to follow up a little bit on again back to the 16 question. It feels a little bit like I remember the CPU days where you've had somebody would fall behind on one node and then try to leapfrog. And I want to revisit this question of the probability of success in skipping a node. TSMC has been over the years relatively careful at making sure that you're bringing up your technology and learning one thing at a time. So we have double patterning obviously at 20-nanometer and now we have FinFET at 16 and 14, in addition to two shrinks.

謝謝。謝謝主席和團隊。我想再次跟進第 16 個問題。感覺有點像我記得在 CPU 時代，有人會在一個節點上落後，然後嘗試跨越。我想重新討論跳過節點成功機率的問題。多年來，台積電一直相對謹慎地確保您一次展示您的技術並學習一件事。因此，我們在 20 奈米製程上顯然有雙重圖案化，現在除了兩次微縮之外，我們還在 16 奈米和 14 奈米製程上採用了 FinFET。

So have we ever seen a company, successfully have basically three major changes at once, leapfrogging and being able to do that? So I'm just wondering that you have consciously chosen 20 for multiple reasons. I think one --

那麼，我們是否見過一家公司能夠同時成功實現三大變革、跨越式發展並且能夠做到這一點？所以我只是想知道你出於多種原因有意識地選擇了 20 個。我認為一個——

I'm sorry. What three changes are you speaking of?

對不起。你說的是哪三個變化？

So we have FinFET, the double patterning and also you have a couple of node shrinks. So your competitor is skipping --

所以我們有 FinFET、雙重圖案化，還有一些節點縮小。所以你的競爭對手正在跳過——

FinFET, double patterning and --

FinFET、雙重圖案化以及—

Scaling.

縮放。

Shrink, scaling.

縮小、縮放。

And scaling.

和縮放。

So what is your confidence that in fact that can be done successfully by your competitor and --

那麼，您對您的競爭對手能夠成功做到這一點的信心有多大——

By our competitor.

由我們的競爭對手提供。

Which is --

這是——

I'm not going to comment on how successful they will be (multiple speakers).

我不會評論他們將取得多麼成功（多名發言者）。

You've just done that.

你剛剛做到了。

No, I don't think it's going to be easy. But as far as we are concerned, you mentioned three hurdles. To us, I think the double patterning would not be a hurdle because we have done that in 20 already. So 16 will not be.

不，我認為這並不容易。但就我們而言，您提到了三個障礙。對我們來說，我認為雙重圖案不會成為障礙，因為我們已經在 20 年做到了。所以16不會。

But your question was not about us. It's about our competitor, right? And I don't think I really want to comment on that except to say that it's not going to be easy.

但你的問題與我們無關。這是關於我們的競爭對手的，對吧？我想我不想對此發表評論，只是想說這並不容易。

Well, I mean -- yes, I think you are commenting already by saying you're going to lose share. So I just wanted to get a feel, maybe flesh this out. I think it's important from an investor's standpoint to understand the complexity in doing this. I think now you're pretty much down the road in 20-nanometer. I think your C.C. and Mark have had a good look at 20. You've looked at the challenges in bringing up double patterning. How critical is 20 as a learning node?

嗯，我的意思是——是的，我認為你已經在評論說你將失去份額。所以我只是想感受一下，也許可以充實一下。我認為從投資者的角度來看，了解這樣做的複雜性很重要。我認為現在你已經在 20 奈米的道路上前進了。我認為你的 C.C.和馬克已經很好地了解了 20。 20作為學習節點有多重要？

How critical is 20 as a learning aid?

20作為學習輔助工具有多重要？

Dan, you have a keen observation. I think indeed, I haven't seen industry skip nodes to be successful, if not still catching up. But we never underestimate our competitors, so I wouldn't want to comment.

丹，你的觀察力很敏銳。我認為，事實上，我還沒有看到產業跳過節點取得成功，即使不是仍在追趕。但我們永遠不會低估我們的競爭對手，所以我不想發表評論。

But it is -- every change of a tech, of each generation is very difficult. Therefore you see the scaled technology, the definition, they change one thing at a time, as you know. So that sets most of it for the people trying to catch up, that's what they do. But historically -- there's a lot of history, historical data that you can see.

但事實是──每一代科技的每一次改變都是非常困難的。因此，你會看到規模化的技術、定義，它們一次改變一件事，就如你所知。因此，這為那些試圖趕上的人設定了大部分目標，而這就是他們所做的。但從歷史上看——你可以看到很多歷史、歷史數據。

Thank you. Second question, cadence R&D, I've been impressed by your operating efficiencies, Lora. With this 16 acceleration, 10 looks pretty aggressive, should we be modeling R&D pick-up growing at a faster rate than sales or will it maintain as a percentage of sales over the next two to three years.

謝謝。第二個問題，Cadence R&D，Lora，你的營運效率給我留下了深刻的印象。有了這 16 的加速，10 看起來相當激進，我們是否應該以比銷售更快的速度模擬研發成長，或在未來兩到三年內保持其佔銷售的百分比。

Let me answer. You're asking whether our R&D will build up even faster than revenue, is that right? I think that it's possible. In fact that's really our first priority, I think. We want to strengthen our technical side even more. So that's -- but it's not going to be very big. Right now, actually we modeled R&D as 8% of revenue at the beginning of the year. Now the revenue has turned out to be bigger than we thought it was going to be. So, right now R&D is only 7.3% of revenue. And in my mind however, the model is still 8%. All right?

讓我來回答一下。您問我們的研發是否會比營收成長得更快，是嗎？我認為這是可能的。事實上，我認為這確實是我們的首要任務。我們希望進一步加強我們的技術方面。所以那就是——但不會很大。目前，實際上我們在年初將研發費用建模為收入的 8%。現在，收入比我們想像的還要大。因此，目前研發僅佔營收的 7.3%。但在我看來，這個模型仍然是 8%。好的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question will come from the floor. It will be from Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將來自會場。它將來自花旗銀行的 Roland Shu。

Hi. Good afternoon, Chairman. I think I just first still a follow-up question on 16-nanometer. I believe that Chairman comment in AGM that TSMC 16-nanometer is ahead of competitor's 14-nanometer in three regards. First is technology and productivity and also trust of customers. I think for the productivity and trust of customer, actually we have no doubt about that. So can Chairman quantify how big the lead it is for your 16-nanometer FinFET to competitor's 14-nanometer FinFET? Thank you.

你好。下午好，主席。我想我首先還是要問一個關於 16 奈米的後續問題。我相信主席在年度股東大會上評論說，台積電16奈米在三個方面領先競爭對手的14奈米。首先是技術和生產力，還有客戶的信任。我認為對於生產力和客戶的信任，實際上我們對此沒有任何疑問。那麼Chairman能否量化一下你們的16奈米FinFET相對於競爭對手的14奈米FinFET有多大的領先優勢？謝謝。

Actually I intend to repeat what I said in the Annual General Meeting just now. Really, if you combine the three, speed, density and power, we feel that we are more than competitive.

其實我想重複一下我剛才在股東會上說過的話。確實，如果將速度、密度和功率這三者結合起來，我們覺得我們不僅具有競爭力。

Now you asked me how big a lead we have etc., etc. Well, I think that would be a very difficult question to answer because our competitors on the 16 are the two companies that I in the past referred to as the two big gorillas of the industry. And each has its strengths.

現在你問我我們的領先優勢有多大等等等等。行業的。每個人都有自己的優勢。

So the two are not the same at all. And each has its strengths; each has its weaknesses. And a competitor may be technologically strong, but if he turns out to be a competitor of his potential customers, then that's a weakness. And if a competitor is already used to being both a competitor and a supplier, but he has got technology weaknesses, that's a problem too for him.

所以兩者根本不一樣。各有各的長處；每個都有其弱點。競爭對手可能在技術上很強大，但如果他最終成為潛在客戶的競爭對手，那麼這就是一個弱點。如果一個競爭對手已經習慣了既是競爭對手又是供應商，但他有技術弱點，這對他來說也是一個問題。

So I don't think I can really answer your question in a very simple way. I can only answer it by just repeating what I said earlier. Combining performance, density and speed -- speed, density and power, we believe we are more than competitive. And in terms of the ability to get business we believe we are more than competitive.

所以我認為我無法以非常簡單的方式真正回答你的問題。我只能重複我剛才所說的話來回答。結合性能、密度和速度——速度、密度和功率，我們相信我們不僅具有競爭力。就獲得業務的能力而言，我們相信我們不僅具有競爭力。

Thank you, Chairman. Then my second question is for near term, for the 3Q. The revenue guidance now is up 12% to 14%. But I think that 20-nanometer itself probably will be contribute more than 10%. So that means non-20-nanometer revenue growth in 3Q probably will be a bit below seasonality. So is this -- any reason behind this or is the reason just because of the capacity constraint for the non-20-nanometer revenue. Thank you.

謝謝主席。那麼我的第二個問題是關於近期的第三季。目前的收入指導成長了 12% 至 14%。但我認為20奈米本身的貢獻可能會超過10%。因此，這意味著第三季非 20 奈米收入成長可能會略低於季節性。這也是——背後的任何原因，或者僅僅是因為非 20 奈米收入的產能限制。謝謝。

So Roland's question is with respect to third quarter. Since our guidance of the third quarter sequential growth rate is 12.6% to 14.2%, but then our 20-nanometer growth rate is going to be a lot faster, which means the non-20 nanometer geometry's growth rate will be slower. And so what was the reason behind the slower growth rate in other nodes. Is it because of capacity constraint or some other reasons?

所以羅蘭的問題是關於第三季的。由於我們對第三季環比成長率的指導為 12.6% 至 14.2%，但隨後我們的 20 奈米成長率將會快得多，這意味著非 20 奈米幾何形狀的成長率將會更慢。那麼其他節點增速放緩的原因是什麼呢？是因為容量限制還是其他原因？

Randy -- I'm sorry.

蘭迪——對不起。

Roland.

羅蘭.

Roland, Chairman was commenting on the second half, we'll go through an inventory depletion cycle again. So that actually has some impact on the third quarter and the fourth quarter. So it's not the capacity constraint issue. It is the overall inventory level going into the third and fourth quarter.

董事長羅蘭談到下半年時表示，我們將再次經歷庫存消耗週期。所以這其實對第三季和第四季產生了一些影響。所以這不是容量限制的問題。這是進入第三季和第四季的總體庫存水準。

Okay. Then do you see any specific segment actually have the biggest inventory correction issue into the second half? Thank you.

好的。那麼，您認為下半年是否存在任何特定細分市場實際上存在最大的庫存調整問題？謝謝。

I don't want to comment. Actually I don't have the information on DOI on specific segment. But based on my guidance I just gave you earlier, we are seeing very strong growth in communication in the third quarter. However, on the computer and consumer, it will be a decline segment. Industrial and related product will have a modest growth as well.

我不想發表評論。實際上我沒有特定段的 DOI 資訊。但根據我剛才給你們的指導，我們看到第三季的溝通非常強勁。然而，在電腦和消費者領域，這將是一個衰退的領域。工業及相關產品也將有溫和成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, we will now take our next question from the call. Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

好的，我們現在將回答電話中的下一個問題。接線員，請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

Thank you. Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

謝謝。史蒂文‧佩拉約，匯豐銀行。

Yes, I apologize if this was asked. The line dropped there. Your 20-nanometer ramp is very impressive, very steep. And I guess if I think about your revenues, excluding 20-nanometer, going from 10% of revenues to more than 20% of revenues in the fourth quarter, it kind of suggests rather anemic growth for the industry in the third quarter and a pretty sizeable down in the fourth quarter.

是的，如果有人問這個問題，我很抱歉。線路掉在那裡。你的 20 奈米斜坡非常令人印象深刻，非常陡峭。我想，如果我考慮一下你們的收入（不包括 20 納米），從第四季度收入的 10% 上升到超過 20%，這有點表明第三季度該行業的增長相當乏力，而且第四季度大幅下滑。

So is that what you think the industry is doing? Or do you think that maybe 28-nanometer competition and pricing pressure is starting to have an impact there? It just seems odd when I think about your revenues excluding 20-nanometer because that really is driving so much of your growth in the second half of the year.

那麼您認為這個行業正在這樣做嗎？或者您認為 28 奈米競爭和定價壓力可能開始對其產生影響？當我想到你們的收入不包括 20 奈米時，這似乎很奇怪，因為這確實在今年下半年推動了你們的成長。

So Steven's question is very similar to Roland's question earlier in the sense that if we take out the 20 nanometer, then our third and fourth quarter growth doesn't look so impressive. Is that because of competition heating up at 28 nanometer or is it because of some other reasons?

所以史蒂文的問題與羅蘭之前的問題非常相似，如果我們去掉 20 奈米，那麼我們第三和第四季的成長看起來就不那麼令人印象深刻。是28奈米競爭加劇還是其他原因？

Well, I really -- I guess, if we take out -- I think the rest of it, if you take out 20 nanometer, I'm just calculating in my head right now -- if you take out 20 nanometers, will we have growth in the third and fourth quarter? I think we still do.

好吧，我真的 - 我想，如果我們去掉 - 我想剩下的，如果你去掉 20 納米，我現在只是在腦子裡計算 - 如果你去掉 20 奈米，我們會嗎第三、四季度有增長嗎？我想我們仍然這樣做。

We have growth in third quarter?

第三季我們有成長嗎？

We have growth in -- and will we have growth in the fourth quarter? Well, I haven't said anything about --

我們在－第四季會有成長嗎？好吧，我還沒有說過任何關於——

Fourth quarter --

第四季——

About the fourth quarter, total fourth quarter yet. But I'm just mentally calculating what it looks like if we take out 20 in the fourth quarter. And the answer of my mental calculation is that we will still have little growth, yes. I don't know how little is little; it may not be too little. Yes, we will still have growth but I think, just as Lora has said now, we are -- and I also said it in my opening remarks that the inventory will be cautiously managed. It almost always is toward the end of the year. Last year in fact it went overboard, the caution went overboard. And, as a result, we had a pretty bad fourth quarter and a lot of people had a pretty bad fourth quarter, only to recover in the first half of this year.

關於第四季度，第四季度總計尚未。但我只是在心裡計算一下如果我們在第四節拿下20分會是什麼樣子。我心算的答案是，我們仍然不會有什麼成長，是的。我不知道少到什麼程度；可能不算太少。是的，我們仍然會成長，但我認為，正如洛拉現在所說的那樣，我們在開場白中也說過，庫存將謹慎管理。幾乎總是在年底。去年事實上，它太過分了，謹慎過度了。結果，我們的第四季表現相當糟糕，許多人的第四季表現也相當糟糕，直到今年上半年才恢復過來。

And we are predicting, as I said earlier, that inventory will be very cautiously managed and of course we will tell you again three months from now what it looks like at that point. But just based on the numbers that we have already given out, I would say that, yes, even if you take out 20, we will still have growth -- we will certainly have growth in the third and we will still have growth in the fourth. And that is already taking into account the cautious inventory management that will happen in the second half of this year.

正如我之前所說，我們預測庫存將受到非常謹慎的管理，當然我們會在三個月後再次告訴您當時的情況。但僅根據我們已經給出的數字，我會說，是的，即使你拿出 20 個，我們仍然會有增長——我們肯定會在第三個增長，我們仍然會在第三個增長。四。這已經考慮到今年下半年將進行的謹慎庫存管理。

Okay, great. Maybe just one quick question for Lora. I noticed on the management report you're no longer breaking out depreciation within cost of goods sold. I think you've got it for total depreciation to grow I think it was 30% or 35% this year. Could you just remind us what it was within cost of goods sold in the second quarter and your outlook for the third quarter?

好的，太好了。也許只是問洛拉一個簡單的問題。我注意到在管理報告中，您不再在銷售成本中細分折舊。我認為今年總折舊增長了 30% 或 35%。您能否提醒我們第二季的銷售成本以及您對第三季的展望？

Okay. We have a chart in the later page, the last page of management report that tells the depreciation included in the COGS. But what I can tell you, the overall depreciation for the first quarter this year is TWD41.6b. And the second quarter will be TWD45.9b and it will go up very steeply in third and fourth quarter. For the whole year we still expect the year-over-year depreciation will be 33% growth, which is lower than what I have told you in the past.

好的。我們在管理報告的最後一頁（管理報告的最後一頁）中有一個圖表，其中顯示了銷貨成本中包含的折舊。但我可以告訴你，今年第一季的整體貶值是TWD41.6b。第二季將為TWD45.9b，第三季和第四季將大幅上漲。全年我們仍然預期人民幣貶值年增33%，低於我過去告訴大家的。

Okay, slightly lower. And just so that we can try to quantify, how much -- where does it step up to in the third quarter?

還好，稍微低一點。這樣我們就可以嘗試量化，第三季會達到多少？

You mean from second quarter to third quarter how much is the depreciation increase? Okay, the third quarter --

你的意思是從第二季到第三季折舊增加了多少？好吧，第三季——

Yes, what's the depreciation (multiple speakers).

是的，折舊是多少（多個揚聲器）。

Alright. Third quarter will be TWD59.5b depreciation.

好吧。第三季將貶值TWD59.5b。

TWD59.5b, okay. Great, thank you very much.

TWD59.5b，好。太好了，非常感謝。

So the next question we'll come back to the floor and it will be coming from Barclay's Andrew Lu.

下一個問題我們將回到會場，這個問題將由巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lu 提出。

Dr. Chang, I have a question for you regarding the market share on the 16-nanometer you mentioned earlier. Next year we might have a lower share compared to competitor. Can we use something to describe it, next year do you see the total addressable market for the FinFET is large like this year, like 20, or much smaller? That's either this one, or the second one we might lose share because our 20-nanometer customers switch to competitor using 14-nanometer and that's why we're losing share, by not using our 16? These two answers will have a dramatic difference for the Company's earnings prospect.

張博士，我有一個問題想問您，關於您剛才提到的16奈米的市場份額。明年，與競爭對手相比，我們的份額可能會更低。我們可以用一些東西來描述它，明年你認為 FinFET 的總潛在市場會像今年一樣大，例如 20 個，還是小得多？這要么是這個，要么是我們可能會失去份額的第二個，因為我們的 20 奈米客戶轉向使用 14 奈米的競爭對手，這就是我們不使用 16 奈米而失去份額的原因？這兩個答案將對公司的獲利前景產生巨大的影響。

Company's earnings?

公司獲利情況？

The first one is for example this year we have a 50k 20-nanometer capacity by the end of this year. And that will be roughly --

第一個是比如說今年我們20奈米的產能到今年底就達到了5萬個。那大約是——

All right let me -- I'm trying to follow your questions, but first let -- Elizabeth, did you get the questions.

好吧，讓我 - 我正在嘗試回答你的問題，但首先讓 - 伊麗莎白，你收到問題了嗎？

Yes, I --

是的，我 -

The first question I think I got.

我想我得到的第一個問題。

Not the first question. It�s two choices.

不是第一個問題。這是兩個選擇。

Yes --

是的 -

Multiple choice

多項選擇

Two choices only, not multiple.

只能選擇兩個，不能選擇多個。

Andrew, your question is you want to know the overall size of the 16/14 nanometer, overall size of the business in 2015, whether or not that is bigger or smaller than the 20-nanometer size of 2014.

Andrew，你的問題是你想知道 2015 年 16/14 奈米業務的整體規模，無論是比 2014 年的 20 奈米尺寸更大還是更小。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

That's your first question.

這是你的第一個問題。

So is that our share is losing because of the addressable market much smaller than --

我們的份額正在下降，因為潛在市場遠小於——

Okay.

好的。

I think -- if you talk about 2015 --

我認為——如果你談論 2015 年——

Yes.

是的。

Put it this way, our 20 and our 20/16 is much bigger than -- the share is much bigger than the 16 --

這麼說吧，我們的 20 和我們的 20/16 比——份額比 16 大得多——

I think his question is the total 16 foundry market --

我認為他的問題是總共16個代工市場——

Right.

正確的。

Next year, is it as big as the total 20 this year. Is that your question?

明年是不是跟今年的總數一樣大？這是你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I think it's smaller, smaller.

我認為它更小，更小。

The total.

總數。

Total --

全部的 -

FinFET including 16, 14 FinFET from all the customer use.

FinFET包括16、14個FinFET，由所有客戶使用。

All, okay. Compare -- okay. About comparable.

都還好吧比較一下——好吧。約可比。

Comparable, so we are losing share.

具有可比性，所以我們正在失去份額。

Losing where -- losing what share?

失去哪裡－失去什麼份額？

Our FinFET shares.

我們的 FinFET 股份。

That's what I said.

這就是我所說的。

Yes, yes. So that's --

是的是的。所以那是 -

Morris Chang. Of course. There's zero FinFET share this year for either party, right?

張莫里斯.當然。今年雙方的 FinFET 份額都為零，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Next year we will have a lower 16 share than a major competitor. That's what I said.

明年我們的市佔率將比主要競爭對手低 16%。這就是我所說的。

Yes. So my question is whether this losing share is because our 20 customer move to competitor for 14, or this is a brand new demand which choose competitor's 14 nanometer first?

是的。所以我的問題是，這種失去的份額是因為我們的20個客戶轉移到競爭對手的14個，或者這是一個全新的需求，首先選擇競爭對手的14奈米？

I don't think -- It�s a rule we're not going to comment on specific customers, all right.

我不認為——按照規定，我們不會對特定客戶發表評論，好吧。

I did not mention any customers.

我沒有提到任何客戶。

You said because --

你說因為——

One important customer.

一位重要客戶。

What, what?

什麼什麼？

One important --

一個重要的——

Are you asking because they switched from 20 to 16?

你問是因為他們從20歲變成16歲了嗎？

Yes, yes, 20 to 14.

是的，是的，20到14。

Because somebody switches from 20 to 16 and therefore we lose share? No.

因為有人從 20 個切換到 16 個，所以我們失去了份額？不。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At least not primarily.

至少不是主要的。

All right. Next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

好的。下一個問題將由高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的唐納德·盧 (Donald Lu) 提出。

Good afternoon, Chairman, I think it's getting quite complicated on this market share issue.

主席先生下午好，我認為市佔率問題變得相當複雜。

I don't -- it really doesn't have to be so complicated.

我不會——它真的不必那麼複雜。

I think --

我認為 -

Just look to the total, just look at ours.

看看總數，看看我們的。

Yes. I think maybe let's just look at the total, TSMC's total foundry market share. I think last year you said you gained 4%. This year, based on your guidance, you're gaining --

是的。我想也許我們只看一下台積電的總代工市佔率。我想去年你說你漲了 4%。今年，根據您的指導，您將獲得—

Several points, yes.

有幾點，是的。

Maybe more than 4%. How about next year?

也許超過4%。明年怎麼樣？

Yes. In the -- I think we'll at least stay there. After gaining almost 10 points; 4% -- well not quite 10 points, 4 points last year, several this year, that's more than halfway to a 10 point gain in two years. And I think we'll stay there at least. So just as you said, Donald, it doesn't have to be very complicated once you think about the basics, yes.

是的。在——我想我們至少會留在那裡。獲得近10分後； 4%——不到10個百分點，去年是4個百分點，今年是幾個百分點，比兩年內10個百分點的漲幅還多一半。我想我們至少會留在那裡。因此，正如您所說，唐納德，一旦您考慮到基礎知識，事情就不必非常複雜，是的。

Okay. So next year TSMC will at least maintain market share in the whole foundry market?

好的。那麼明年台積電至少會維持整個代工市場的市佔率嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Next year what?

明年什麼？

Sorry, I'm just rephrasing your words. You said next year TSMC will at least maintain your foundry, total foundry market share next year.

抱歉，我只是重新表達你的話。你說明年台積電至少會維持你的代工，明年總代工市佔率。

Next year? Yes.

明年？是的。

Well at least we're going to -- at least we'll do everything we can, we'll actually inch forward a little.

好吧，至少我們會——至少我們會盡我們所能，我們實際上會向前邁進一點。

Okay, great. Yes. My next --

好的，太好了。是的。我的下一個——

Because remember actually the looming battle is really not 16. In my mind the 16 battle has already been fought. And the looming battle with -- and I don't know what the outcome of that battle will be -- is the 10. And I'm not going to say anything about it today, but before I came here today and after I leave here to go back to the office today, my thoughts are primarily on the 10 and not so much on the 16. The 16 is just as somebody said, Wellington I think, the Battle of Waterloo was won on the plains of Eton, and I have already graduated from Eton and I can already foresee the results of Waterloo on the 16, yes. The 10, I'm still in Eton.

因為實際上記住，迫在眉睫的戰鬥實際上不是16。即將到來的戰鬥——我不知道那場戰鬥的結果是什麼——是10號。主要集中在10 號，而不是16 號。的結果了，是的。 10號，我還在伊頓公學。

So maybe you can share with us what are you thinking about 10, what's the key issues maybe we should be focused on?

那麼也許您可以與我們分享一下您的想法 10、我們應該關注的關鍵問題是什麼？

Would you repeat?

你能再說一次嗎？

My question is on 10 nanometer, you said you're thinking before and after the conference. Maybe you can share with us what you're thinking, what are the key points that we should be focusing on the 10 nanometer progress as well?

我的問題是關於10奈米，你說你在會前和會後都在思考。或許您可以跟我們分享一下您的想法，我們在10奈米進展上還應該關注哪些重點？

So Donald's question is what in Chairman's mind regarding 10 nanometer?

那麼唐納德的問題是，主席對 10 奈米有何看法？

What is in my mind regarding 10?

對於10，我的想法是什麼？

10 nanometer.

10奈米。

Why don't you -- he knows what is in my mind.

你為什麼不——他知道我在想什麼。

I think right now we reported our target for 10 nanometer. And the development is in full steam in TSMC. And at this time our 10 nanometer is very competitive. As Chairman just mentioned particularly in density that will be back on the historical trend; even better. And -- but most importantly is we have a few customers embracing this technology and also the timing. Our leading customer even plan to collaborate with us to do their product tape out before we qualified the technology. Therefore we see there is a strong market demand for the 10 at this point so we're very excited about this new technology definition, also very excited about our customer partnership of this 10 nanometer. And we are really in full steam to develop this.

我認為現在我們報告了 10 奈米的目標。台積電的開發工作正在如火如荼地進行中。而這時候我們的10奈米就非常有競爭力了。正如主席剛才特別提到的，密度將回到歷史趨勢；甚至更好。而且 - 但最重要的是我們有一些客戶接受這項技術以及時機。我們的主要客戶甚至計劃與我們合作，在我們驗證技術之前完成他們的產品流片。因此，我們看到目前對 10 奈米的市場需求非常強勁，因此我們對這項新技術定義感到非常興奮，也對我們在 10 奈米方面的客戶合作夥伴關係感到非常興奮。我們確實正在全力開發這項產品。

Yes. Can I have another question here? My other question is more on the margin side. Maybe we can -- Lora can explain to us, you commented that in Q2 there is inventory adjustment and also a 20-nanometer ramp-up cost. What's the total margin impact there?

是的。我可以在這裡問另一個問題嗎？我的另一個問題更多的是邊緣方面。也許我們可以——Lora 可以向我們解釋一下，您評論說第二季有庫存調整，還有 20 奈米的提升成本。對總利潤率的影響是多少？

It's --

它是 -

Second quarter gross margin.

第二季毛利率。

I do want to go back a bit on the -- I think someone from here asked a question about capital intensity.

我確實想回顧一下——我想這裡有人問了一個關於資本密集度的問題。

Right.

正確的。

Will it go down? And at that time I said unhesitatingly that it will go down. But I was just checking with Lora, because I remembered something, and I think there is a chance that next year it actually may pick up a little bit, but not significantly. This year -- but the general trend is very definitely downwards. We have already -- we are already over the hill this year. This year we'll be spending about less than TWD10b, TWD10b or a little less. And last year we spent -- what?

會下降嗎？而且當時我就毫不猶豫的說，一定會下去的。但我只是和洛拉核實了一下，因為我記得一些事情，我認為明年它實際上可能會增加，但不會顯著。今年——但總體趨勢肯定是下降的。我們已經──今年我們已經翻過了山頭。今年我們的花費大概會不到TWD10b，TWD10b或少一點。去年我們花了──什麼？

TWD9.7b -- 6.

TWD9.7b -- 6。

TWD9.6b. TWD9.6b, our revenue last year was -- let's say our revenue this year is 20% some greater than last year and the same capital expenditure. Who asked the question by the way?

TWD9.6b。 TWD9.6b，我們去年的收入是——假設我們今年的收入比去年增加了 20%，資本支出相同。順便問一下這個問題是誰問的？

Gokul.

戈庫爾。

Yes, right. So our capital expenditure this year is about the same as last year and yet our revenue this year is 20% some higher than last year. So I expect the total trend to be coming down. However next year we may see a little aberration, a little one. But since we're going to be speaking with you again in 16 -- on the 16 nanometer, probably need to spend a little more capital.

是的，沒錯。所以我們今年的資本支出與去年大致相同，但今年的收入卻比去年高出 20%。所以我預期整體趨勢會下降。然而明年我們可能會看到一點偏差，一點點。但由於我們將在 16 年再次與您討論 - 關於 16 奈米，可能需要花費更多的資金。

Chairman, if I can make some comments on that.

主席先生，我可以對此發表一些評論嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Chairman say that next year maybe our capital intensity will be slightly higher than this year, but it's very safe to say it will be much lower than 2013.

董事長說，明年我們的資本密集度可能會比今年略高，但可以肯定地說，會比2013年低很多。

Yes. 2013 I think --

是的。 2013年我認為—

Was 48%.

為48%。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, but Lora, Donald still has a question for you on the margin of the second quarter. How much is the impact from inventory?

是的，但是洛拉，唐納德在第二季末還有一個問題要問你。庫存影響有多大？

I'm sorry, did I interrupt something actually?

抱歉，我真的打擾了什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Please, please yes.

好的。拜託，拜託，是的。

It was the inventory readjustment and the ramp up of 20-nanometer impact to the second quarter margin.

這是庫存調整和20奈米的提升對第二季利潤率的影響。

We'll talk about the 20-nanometer impact first. In second quarter we have very, very small shipments, but we have incurred some costs already. So the impact to margin is about 1 percentage point, okay. That's for 20 nanometer. For inventory adjustment it's more than 1% but below 2%.

我們先討論20奈米的影響。第二季我們的出貨量非常非常小，但我們已經產生了一些成本。所以對利潤率的影響大約是 1 個百分點，好吧。那是20奈米。庫存調整則大於1%但低於2%。

All right. Next question will be from UBS, William Dong.

好的。下一個問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) William Dong 提出。

Good afternoon Mr. Chairman. I guess -- we keep talking about technology. I guess the question I want to ask is that with all this rush to continue to push down technology roadmap, to go down to 16, to 14 and to 10 nanometer, what are our thoughts about what's driving this demand? As we move toward, for example, Internet of Things, is there such a requirement to keep pushing on the technology front to actually have enough, sufficient demand to keep driving it down?

主席先生下午好。我想——我們一直在談論技術。我想我想問的問題是，隨著人們急於繼續推動技術路線圖，降低到 16、14 和 10 奈米，我們對推動這項需求的因素有何看法？例如，當我們邁向物聯網時，是否需要不斷推動技術前沿，以真正擁有足夠的需求來繼續推動技術進步？

Well, if the cost is low enough -- cost is very much a part of the equation. If the cost is low enough, the demand will increase because we can see a lot of applications that are just waiting there. Of course I'm talking about the mobile products, but I'm also talking about Internet of Things, so wearables and so on, so on, Internet of Things. The applications are just waiting there for better, for faster speed and lower power and higher density ICs. Cost is definitely in the equation.

好吧，如果成本夠低——成本在很大程度上就是等式的一部分。如果成本夠低，需求就會增加，因為我們可以看到很多應用程式正在等待。當然我在談論行動產品，但我也在談論物聯網，穿戴式裝置等等，物聯網。這些應用正在等待更好、更快的速度、更低的功耗和更高密度的 IC。成本絕對在等式中。

So, yes, when you ask will the demand be there. If we can get the cost down to an acceptable level, demand will be there. And of course that's why -- that's how things like EUV come into the question. Nobody has asked about that yet. We actually were prepared to answer that with the same answer that we gave you last time, by the way, that we are still planning to -- there's still a possibility to use EUV on one, one or two -- or just one layer in the 10 nanometer, yes. One layer, one layer in 10 nanometer and 7 I think is, of course, an even better candidate.

所以，是的，當你問的時候，需求就會存在。如果我們能夠將成本降低到可接受的水平，需求就會存在。當然，這就是原因——這就是 EUV 之類的東西如何產生問題的原因。還沒有人問過這個問題。事實上，我們已經準備好用上次給您的相同答案來回答這個問題，順便說一句，我們仍在計劃中——仍然有可能在一層、一層或兩層上使用EUV，或者僅在一層上使用EUV。我認為一層、一層 10 奈米和 7 奈米當然是更好的候選者。

Okay. Thank you for that. So it's good to hear that EUV is -- will be potentially used.

好的。謝謝你。因此，很高興聽到 EUV 即將被使用。

EUV and we're trying -- we're working very hard with a lot of other people, ASML and other equipment vendors to reduce the patterning costs of optical immersion lithography. And we are also trying very hard to reduce the cost all around; not just lithography but all other costs.

EUV，我們正在努力——我們正在與許多其他人、ASML 和其他設備供應商非常努力地合作，以降低光學浸沒光刻的圖案化成本。我們也在努力降低各方面的成本；不僅僅是光刻成本，還有所有其他成本。

Okay, thank you. And one more question is, as we look at the earnings, it continues to improve and obviously the expectation is it will continue to rise. What are your thoughts about potentially having more cash dividend as we move forward in time, because right now we've been staying at around TWD3 for the last few years? But as we generate more and more profit, cash flow improves, how likely is that to happen, for cash dividend to rise?

好的謝謝。還有一個問題是，當我們查看收益時，它會繼續改善，並且顯然預期它將繼續上升。由於過去幾年我們一直保持在新台幣 3 左右，因此隨著時間的推移，您對可能獲得更多現金股息有何看法？但隨著我們產生越來越多的利潤，現金流量改善，現金股利增加的可能性有多大？

As our earnings continue to improve, will we also increase our dividends?

隨著我們的獲利不斷改善，我們是否也會增加股利？

Dividend? It will be seriously considered, an increase will be seriously considered.

股利？會認真考慮的，加價也會認真考慮的。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Yes. We do have about TWD7b worth of bonds that we have to repay right, but certainly an increase in dividend will be seriously considered.

是的。我們確實有價值約新台幣 7b 的債券需要償還，但我們肯定會認真考慮增加股息。

Okay. I think we need to go back to the line for the next caller on the line. Operator, please proceed.

好的。我認為我們需要返回線路以接聽線路上的下一個呼叫者。接線員，請繼續。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，SIG。

Yes, thanks for taking my question. Dr. Chang, going back to your commentary about 10 nanometer and how the tape-outs is going to be available in the second half of 2015, and that's when you're going to start ramping 16 nanometer, so if I'm one of your major customers, why would I want to switch from 20 to 16 and why not just skip 16 and just go directly to 10? And I have a follow-up too.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題。 Chang 博士，回到您對 10 奈米的評論，以及如何在 2015 年下半年實現流片，那時您將開始升級 16 奈米，所以如果我是其中之一您的主要客戶，為什麼我要從20 切換到16，為什麼不跳過16 直接轉到10？我也有後續行動。

All right. Mehdi, your question is with respect to what we said earlier about having 10-nanometer customer product tape-outs available in 2016? Well, I think we said second half of 2015, not 2016. And then your question is whether or not we see customers skipping 16 nanometer and going from 20 nanometer to 10 nanometer. Is that your question?

好的。 Mehdi，您的問題是關於我們之前所說的 2016 年提供 10 奈米客戶產品流片的問題嗎？好吧，我想我們說的是 2015 年下半年，而不是 2016 年。這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, that's correct. Thank you.

對，那是正確的。謝謝。

No. No, those customers are not skipping 16. I think there are segments of application is driven by the integration and possibly also lower power also together, to drive this technology. But that's only particular segments. That doesn't mean that driving a technology faster, the previous node will be short-lived. It's not because the market is -- application is spreading, spreading up. Some of the segments continue to drive the leading edge, but there are lot of segments and applications that stay on the older nodes. So it's not a -- when you move to the next node the previous node will be idle. It's not the case, so we just see this migration fuel the semiconductor growth in those applications.

不。 不，這些客戶不會跳過 16。但這只是特定的部分。這並不意味著要更快地推動一項技術，之前的節點就會是短暫的。這並不是因為市場——應用程式正在擴散、擴散。一些細分市場繼續推動領先優勢，但有許多細分市場和應用程式仍保留在舊節點上。所以這不是——當你移動到下一個節點時，前一個節點將處於空閒狀態。事實並非如此，所以我們只是看到這種遷移推動了這些應用中的半導體成長。

Okay, thank you. And as a follow-up is a clarification, the capital intensity may increase next year, but does the dollar value of CapEx remaining the same or will it go up in 2015 compared to 2014?

好的謝謝。後續需要澄清的是，明年的資本密集度可能會增加，但 2015 年資本支出的美元價值是否會保持不變，還是會比 2014 年上升？

Mehdi, your question is if our capital intensity ratio will go up in 2015, does that mean that our revenue will go up in 2015? Is that your question? Sorry, can you repeat that?

Mehdi，你的問題是，如果2015年我們的資本密集度會上升，這是否意味著我們2015年的收入會上升？這是你的問題嗎？抱歉，您能再說一次嗎？

Let me rephrase the question. Should we assume -- during the last conference call there was a comment that CapEx in 2015 would be similar to 2014. Is that assumption still sustained or should we assume that CapEx may actually go higher in 2015?

讓我重新表達一下這個問題。我們是否應該假設—在上次電話會議期間，有評論稱 2015 年的資本支出將與 2014 年相似。

Okay. So the comment of higher capital intensity in 2015 means higher CapEx in 2015.

好的。因此，2015 年資本密集度較高的評論意味著 2015 年資本支出較高。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Okay. Now coming back to the floor and next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

好的。現在回到會場，下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Michael Chou 提出。

Hi, Chairman. One question for InFO. Do you expect any InFO revenue next year?

主席您好。有一個問題要向 InFO 詢問。您預計明年會有 InFO 收入嗎？

What do you mean by evil?

你說的邪惡是什麼意思？

InFO.

資訊.

InFO.

資訊.

Oh InFO --

哦，訊息——

InFO.

資訊.

Okay.

好的。

C.C. will answer that question.

C.C.將回答這個問題。

No, not yet.

還沒有。

Thank you. The second question is regarding the 10 nanometer. Do you think the 10-nanometer total addressable market would be still bigger than 16, 14 or similar? Thank you.

謝謝。第二個問題是關於10奈米的。您認為 10 奈米的總潛在市場仍會比 16、14 或類似產品更大嗎？謝謝。

Would 10 nanometer market be similar to 16, 14? I would be just guessing, I would just be speculating, but if you talk about dollars, I think it will be more. If you're talking about wafers I think it would be either similar or maybe a little less. Again I'm speculating with you, all right, because a lot depends on what cost we can come down to.

10奈米市場會與16、14奈米類似嗎？我只是猜測，我只是猜測，但如果你談論美元，我認為會更多。如果你談論的是晶圓，我認為它要么相似，要么可能少一點。我再次與你猜測，好吧，因為很大程度上取決於我們可以降低的成本。

All right. Follow-up question from Dan Heyler, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

好的。美國銀行美林公司 Dan Heyler 的後續問題。

Hopefully this question simplifies and doesn't complicate things. Just to make sure I understand this share loss thing, so basically what you're saying is the share loss at 16, these are customers that are choosing to skip 20? Is that how should I think of this that these are not any -- are any of these customers that are currently 20 that are going to 16 next year or is this all people that are choosing to skip 20?

希望這個問題能讓事情變得簡單而不是複雜。只是為了確保我理解這個份額損失的事情，所以基本上你所說的是 16 時的份額損失，這些是選擇跳過 20 的客戶？我該如何看待這些都不是——這些目前 20 歲的客戶明年將達到 16 歲，還是所有這些人都選擇跳過 20 歲？

Well, first of all, I want to question the word share loss. I don't consider there is share loss because just like 32/28 we had zero share in 32. But then we were very successful in 28. The two really belong to the same generation. And 20 and 16 also belong to the same generation. So, yes -- and share loss means that you start with something and then you lose it, it becomes less. Well, this year nobody has -- everybody has zero share, okay. And I am just saying that we will start on 16, we will start with a lower share than we did with 20 or 28. We start with a lower share than we did with 20 or 28. And then we'll get back to a high share in 2016. I'm just arguing with him, but he did have a question; what was that?

嗯，首先，我想質疑份額損失這個詞。我不認為有份額損失，因為就像32/28一樣，我們在32中的份額為零。而且20和16也屬於同一代。所以，是的——份額損失意味著你從某樣東西開始，然後你失去它，它變得更少。好吧，今年沒有人——每個人的份額都是零，好吧。我只是說，我們將從 16 開始，我們將從比 20 或 28 更低的份額開始。他爭論，但他確實有一個問題；那是什麼？

So what is your question?

那你的問題是什麼？

So the 20 -- it was a simple question. The 16 --

所以20——這是一個簡單的問題。 16——

Okay, yes. Yes, I remember. Dan's question is this lower share that we will have at 16 in 2015, is it due to a customer's --

好吧，是的。是的，我記得。 Dan 的問題是，2015 年我們的份額會下降到 16 個，這是否是由於客戶的份額——

Or just simply are your -- are these customers moving to 16, are these the ones that have currently been on 20 or are these the guys that have skipped because the debate in the industry is should we go straight to 16 and skip 20. So are these customers that have basically been at 28 and are skipping 20 and going straight to 14 at your competitor?

或者只是你的——這些客戶是否正在轉向 16，這些客戶目前是否已經使用 20，或者這些客戶是否已經跳過，因為業界的爭論是我們是否應該直接轉向 16 並跳過 20。都是28 歲，現在在競爭對手處跳過20 歲直接達到14 歲嗎？

Why do we start with lower share, well because mainly because -- are you listening to me Dan? I'm trying to answer your question.

為什麼我們從較低的份額開始，主要是因為──丹，你在聽我說話嗎？我正在嘗試回答你的問題。

Yes, Dan, you have to listen --

是的，丹，你必須聽——

I'm listening, I'm listening.

我在聽，我在聽。

Mainly because our customers wanted it sooner. We got in a little late, as I said; our customers wanted it sooner. So that's why we're starting -- and we'll catch up only a little later.

主要是因為我們的客戶希望更快。正如我所說，我們到得有點晚了；我們的客戶希望更快。這就是我們開始的原因——我們稍後會趕上。

Very clear; thank you.

非常清楚;謝謝。

I think we have a follow-up question on the call. Operator, could you please proceed to the next caller?

我認為我們在電話會議中有一個後續問題。接線員，您可以接聽下一個來電者嗎？

Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

史蒂文‧佩拉約，匯豐銀行。

Great. Thanks again for letting me come back with another question. I'm curious about customer concentration. In your annual filings you had one customer I think 22% or 23% of revenues. Seems like you're ramping, I think, another significant customer. I'm curious, if you think about maybe just your top five customers in 2015, let's say next year, it seems to me that those five alone could maybe approach as much as 45%, 50% of revenue. Do you think that's possible and do you have any concerns about increasing customer concentration?

偉大的。再次感謝您讓我帶著另一個問題回來。我對客戶集中度很好奇。在你的年度申報中，你有一個客戶，我認為佔收入的 22% 或 23%。我認為，您似乎正在擴大另一個重要客戶的規模。我很好奇，如果你只考慮 2015 年的前 5 位客戶，比如說明年，在我看來，光是這 5 位客戶就可能佔收入的 45%、50%。您認為這可能嗎？

So, Steven, you're asking us about the customer concentration in 2015 and whether or not the top five customers that we will have in 2015 will account for about 45% or 50% of the total?

那麼，史蒂文，您問我們2015年的客戶集中度，以及2015年我們擁有的前五名客戶是否會佔總數的45%或50%左右？

Just in the future, it doesn't necessarily have to be 2015, but even the second half of this year it seems like you're going to be ramping up pretty significantly another customer and so it would seem that your top four or five customers are going to be a very large amount.

就在未來，不一定是 2015 年，但即使是今年下半年，您似乎也會大幅增加另一個客戶，因此您的前四到五個客戶似乎將是一個非常大的數額。

So the customer concentration starting second half of this year, that our top customers will have a very large share of our revenue.

因此，從今年下半年開始，我們的頂級客戶將在我們的收入中佔據很大份額。

Is the customer concentration going to change; is that the question?

客戶集中度是否會改變？這是問題嗎？

It's bigger.

它更大了。

It seems like the concentration, customer concentration is increasing going forward. Last year you divulged in your annual filing one customer at 22% of revenues I think. I think you have another customer that's ramping up very significantly now. And there maybe a couple of other ones that really would suggest to me that maybe your top four or five customers are 40% to 50% of revenue. Does that sound right? Is concentration increasing and do you -- are you nervous at all of the risks of higher concentration, concentrated customer base?

看來，客戶的集中度正在增加。去年，您在年度申報中披露了一位客戶的收入佔收入的 22%，我認為。我認為您現在還有另一個客戶正在顯著增加。也許還有其他人確實會向我建議，也許您的前四、五個客戶佔收入的 40% 到 50%。聽起來對嗎？集中度是否在增加？

Well, as you talk about the top five customers, I think that the top -- our top five customers have always had 40%, 50% of the revenue.

嗯，當你談論前五名客戶時，我認為我們的前五名客戶一直佔據著 40%、50% 的收入。

Okay.

好的。

Yes. Now, but something has changed in the last couple of years. So -- but to detect the change you have to ask about the top three customers, yes, has their concentration changed. Yes. The top three customers' concentration has changed. But I don't see it changing very much from this point, which is the second half of 2014. In the next 18 months to the end of next year I think the top three customer concentration is going to stay about the same.

是的。現在，但過去幾年發生了一些變化。因此，要發現變化，您必須詢問前三位客戶，是的，他們的注意力是否發生了變化。是的。前三大客戶集中度發生變化。但我認為從 2014 年下半年開始，情況並沒有太大變化。

Okay, thank you. One final question from me. I'm curious just about -- you're pretty far your view from actual end demand but the data points on end demand in the first half of the year maybe PCs were a little bit better than expected on end-of-life Win XP, but in general some of the data that came out in TVs and smartphones wasn't that good. And there's a lot of expectations with this 4G ramp in the second half of the year. I'm curious, what signals do you have or confidence in that end demand will be robust enough to support so much, in my opinion, undifferentiated four- to six-inch blank slate smartphones out there?

好的謝謝。我的最後一個問題。我很好奇——你的觀點與實際的最終需求相差甚遠，但今年上半年最終需求的數據點也許 PC 比報廢 Win XP 的預期要好一點，但總的來說，電視和智慧型手機中得出的一些數據並不那麼好。人們對今年下半年 4G 的崛起抱持著很大的期望。我很好奇，您有什麼訊號或有信心最終需求將足夠強勁，以支持如此多的（在我看來）無差別的四到六英寸空白智慧型手機？

Steven's comment was that it doesn't appear to him, I guess, that the smartphone demand in the second half will be that strong.

史蒂文的評論是，我猜，他認為下半年智慧型手機的需求不會那麼強勁。

He does not --

他沒有 -

Believe the smartphone demand --

相信智慧型手機的需求—

The smartphone demand will --

智慧型手機的需求將—

In the second half will be that strong.

下半場將會如此強勁。

What do we believe?

我們相信什麼？

I'm merely saying the data points we've seen thus far have been disappointing so we'll need a pretty big ramp in the second half of the year.

我只是說，迄今為止我們看到的數據點令人失望，因此我們需要在今年下半年實現相當大的成長。

I think we have got some numbers also. Anyhow, you believe the smartphone demand will not be so strong and therefore --

我想我們也有一些數字。無論如何，你認為智慧型手機的需求不會那麼強勁，因此——

So what drives the business growth in the second half.

那麼下半年業務成長的動力是什麼？

What drives the business growth? Well, I guess we have the orders already, don't we, as far as third quarter is concerned. And the fourth quarter we have some orders also. I think maybe Mark�

是什麼推動業務成長？好吧，我想我們已經收到了訂單，不是嗎，就第三季而言。第四季我們也有一些訂單。我想也許是馬克…

I think Chairman did mention the second half we'll go through some mild inventory correction. However, because of the -- our share on 28 and 20 nanometer, props us to have a stable trend.

我認為主席確實提到下半年我們將進行一些溫和的庫存調整。然而，由於我們在 28 和 20 奈米上的份額，支撐我們有一個穩定的趨勢。

All right. So --

好的。所以 -

Yes, fair enough, thank you.

是的，很公平，謝謝。

Yes. Coming back to the floor, there's follow up questions from Barclays, Andrew Lu.

是的。回到會場，巴克萊銀行 Andrew Lu 提出了後續問題。

Dr. Chang, Lora, I remember in January conference when the Q1 utilization was low, we built the inventory for the customer and believe some of the inventory was been taken out. So, second quarter seems doing very well, this new strategy. Assuming in Q1 next year we have a larger decline because customer have adjustment in inventory, will we do the same thing in Q1 next year?

張博士，Lora，我記得在一月份的會議上，當時第一季度利用率較低，我們為客戶建立了庫存，並相信部分庫存已被取出。所以，第二季這個新策略似乎表現得很好。假設明年第一季我們有更大的下降，因為客戶對庫存進行了調整，我們明年第一季會做同樣的事情嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And to smooth out the --

為了平滑——

Yes. I'm glad you phrased it as a very good strategy. I thought so too; I was the author of that strategy, all right? I thought so too, but it wasn't necessary for too long though because very quickly our inventory-building program was overtaken by customer demand.

是的。我很高興你將其表述為一個非常好的策略。我也是這麼想;我是該策略的作者，好嗎？我也這麼認為，但沒有必要持續太久，因為很快我們的庫存建設計劃就被客戶需求取代了。

So will we build more this time compared to -- this year, we're still conservative, learning the new --

所以，與今年相比，這次我們會建造更多，我們仍然保守，學習新的事物——

When utilization is 100% just to respond to customers' demand, you have no capacity to build inventory. That's what happened when I said that program wasn't necessary for too long. We didn't have the capacity any more after, I guess, since March, maybe? Since March, yes. So that program was in place, inventory-building program -- inventory building meant anticipating orders, not having orders, and building inventory, That's what it means.

當利用率為 100% 只是為了回應客戶需求時，您沒有能力建立庫存。這就是當我說這個計劃在很長一段時間內不需要的時候發生的事情。我想，也許從三月開始，我們就不再有能力了？從三月開始，是的。所以這個計劃已經到位，庫存建設計劃——庫存建設意味著預期訂單，沒有訂單，建立庫存，這就是它的意思。

But -- and that was the case, I guess, in the fourth quarter last year and in January and February. And then from March on, we began to be flooded by orders. So there was no --

但是——我猜去年第四季以及一月和二月的情況就是這樣。從三月開始，我們的訂單就開始如潮水般湧來。所以沒有——

No inventory.

無庫存。

No capacity to build the inventory with. All the capacity had to be devoted to building orders, to building to orders, yes.

沒有能力建立庫存。是的，所有產能都必須用於建立訂單、依訂單生產。

Yes. My second question, very quick. Earlier Dr. Chang mentioned ramp up on the 16 was starting from end of next year and changed to second half next year. So can we just have a clear picture, what kind of revenue contribution will be by Q4 next year from 16 nanometer? Thank you.

是的。我的第二個問題，很快。先前張博士提到，16號的增產是從明年年底開始，改為明年下半年。那麼我們是否可以清楚地了解，到明年第四季度，16奈米將帶來怎樣的收入貢獻？謝謝。

So how much will 16 nanometer account for our fourth quarter revenue in 2015?

那麼16奈米將占我們2015年第四季營收的多少呢？

That's your question? Lora, do you want to answer? Okay, Lora yes.

這就是你的問題？洛拉，你想回答嗎？好的，洛拉，是的。

We will start mass production of 16 nanometer from third quarter next year, but it's a bit too early to tell you the percentage of revenue contribution. But we believe it will be a single-digit range.

我們將從明年第三季開始量產16奈米，但現在告訴你收入貢獻的百分比還為時過早。但我們相信這將是個位數的範圍。

Okay. Follow-up question from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

好的。德意志銀行 Michael Chou 的後續問題。

Chairman, regarding the 16/20 nanometer, could we say your total market share in 16 and 20 nanometer will be similar to 28/32 for the corresponding period? Can we say that?

主席，關於16/20奈米，我們是否可以說你們在16奈米和20奈米的市佔率同期將與28/32類似？我們可以這麼說嗎？

Combined 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer our market share will that be similar to the combined 32/28 nanometer market share?

20 奈米和 16 奈米的市佔率合計與 32/28 奈米的市佔率合計相似嗎？

The combined 20 -- I just ran an analysis just a couple of weeks ago, so I know exactly the answer to your question. The combined 20/16 market share in the first two years of its existence, which is this year and next year -- well, I guess I have to add in 2016 -- the combined -- our combined 20/16 share in 2014, 2015 and 2016 will still be greater than our combined share of 32 and 28 in --

總共 20 個——幾週前我剛剛進行了一次分析，所以我確切地知道你問題的答案。其存在的前兩年（即今年和明年）的 20/16 市場份額合計 - 好吧，我想我必須在 2016 年加上 - 2014 年我們的 20/16 市場份額合計， 2015 年和2016 年仍將高於我們在以下領域32 和28 的總份額：

2012.

2012年。

Is it 2011 or 2012?

現在是2011年還是2012年？

2012. 2012, 2013 and 2014.

2012 年、2012 年、2013 年及 2014 年。

2012, 2013 and 2014.

2012 年、2013 年及 2014 年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great. All right, in the interests of time I am just going to allow the very last one and that's Credit Suisse, Randy.

偉大的。好吧，為了節省時間，我只允許最後一個，那就是瑞士信貸，蘭迪。

Thank you. This one might be more for Lora. Just wanted to ask on 20 nanometer the forward look, how much impact on margin, how long it might take to reach corporate average. And if you could do an initial look on structural profitability and depreciation for next year.

謝謝。這可能更適合洛拉。只是想問一下 20 奈米的前景，對利潤率的影響有多大，可能需要多長時間才能達到企業平均值。如果您可以初步了解明年的結構性獲利能力和折舊情況。

Okay. I just talked about second quarter that 20 nanometer has about 1 percentage point impact to corporate gross margin. As we're ramping very fast in third and fourth quarter, so impact will be larger. Based on my current number, it will be ranging from 3 to 4 percentage point in second half of this year. For next year it will be 1% or 2% roughly.

好的。我剛剛講了第二季20奈米對企業毛利率的影響大約是1個百分點。由於我們在第三季和第四季的成長速度非常快，因此影響會更大。根據我目前的數字，今年下半年會在3到4個百分點之間。明年大概是1%或2%。

When it will reach the corporate average? I think it usually takes seven to eight quarters so it will be in 2016. I don't know which quarter yet, okay.

什麼時候能達到企業平均？我認為通常需要七到八個季度，所以會在 2016 年。

And you asked about depreciation as well?

您還問了折舊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We have not finalized our CapEx for 2015. I think the magnitude of year-over-year increase will be much, much smaller than the 33% this year. So I don't have a firm number yet, okay?

我們還沒有最終確定 2015 年的資本支出。所以我還沒有確切的數字，好嗎？

Okay. So as you know that we are very confident in our profitability, we'll end our conference call for this quarter right here. So before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within three hours from now; transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which can be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

好的。如您所知，我們對我們的獲利能力非常有信心，我們將在這裡結束本季的電話會議。因此，在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起三個小時內即可觀看會議重播；成績單將於 24 小時後提供，均可透過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today. We hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye and have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。