台積電 ADR (TSM) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2014 earnings conference and conference call. This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

歡迎參加台積電2014年第四季業績發表會及電話會議。我是台積電企業傳播總監伊莉莎白·孫，也是今天的主持人。

Before we begin, let me wish you a very happy and prosperous New Year. Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode. As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

在我們開始之前，請容許我祝大家新年快樂、萬事如意。今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於只聽模式。由於此次會議將受到全球投資者的關注，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Miss Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and full year 2014, followed by our guidance for the current quarter. Afterwards, CFO Lora and TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide our key messages. After that, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang, will host the Q&A session.

今天活動的形式如下。首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長何麗拉女士將總結我們2014年第四季及全年的營運狀況，然後介紹本季的業績指引。隨後，台積電財務長Lora與台積電兩位聯席執行長劉德華博士、C.C.博士分別致詞。魏先生將與我們共同提供重要資訊。隨後，台積電董事長張忠謀博士將主持問答環節。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website, www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

對於參加電話會議的人員，如果您尚未收到新聞稿，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。請同時下載與今天的收益會議報告相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice as this appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Miss Lora Ho, for a summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想請台積電財務長何麗拉女士總結營運情況並介紹本季的業績指引。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good afternoon and happy New Year to everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of our 2014 performance, followed by the guidance for the current quarter.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。下午好，祝大家新年快樂。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將首先介紹第四季度的財務亮點並回顧我們 2014 年的業績，然後介紹本季的業績指引。

Fourth quarter was another record-breaking quarter for TSMC, with revenue, earnings per share and the cash balance all reached historical high levels. Despite a moderate impact from supply chain inventory correction, our revenue increased 6.4% sequentially to reach TWD222.5b. This was mainly due to the strong demand for our 20-nanometer technology.

第四季度，台積電再創紀錄，營收、每股盈餘、現金餘額均創下歷史新高。儘管受到供應鏈庫存調整的輕微影響，我們的營收仍較上季成長6.4%，達到2,225億新台幣。這主要是由於我們的 20 奈米技術的強勁需求。

On the profitability side, gross margin was 49.7%, down 0.8 percentage point from third quarter. This was attributed to 20-nanometer margin dilution and the lower capacity utilization, while cost improvements and favorable foreign exchange rate offset some of the decline.

獲利方面，毛利率為49.7%，較第三季下降0.8個百分點。這歸因於20奈米利潤率稀釋和產能利用率下降，而成本改善和有利的外匯匯率抵消了部分下滑。

Operating margin was 39.6%, also down 0.6 -- 0.8 percentage point from the third quarter.

營業利益率為39.6%，也較第三季下降0.6-0.8個百分點。

Overall, our fourth-quarter EPS was TWD3.08, increased 4.8% sequentially and 78.5% year over year.

總體而言，我們第四季的每股收益為 3.08 新台幣，比上一季成長 4.8%，比去年同期成長 78.5%。

Let's take a look at revenue by application. During the fourth quarter, the strong 20-nanometer ramp was mainly driven by communication-related applications. As a result, communication grew 18% sequentially and the revenue contribution increased from 59% in the third quarter to 65% in the fourth quarter. As for other applications, computer grew 7%, while consumer and industrial declined 21% and 11% respectively.

我們來看看各應用的收入。第四季度，20奈米技術的強勁成長主要受到通訊相關應用的推動。結果，通訊業務較上季成長了18%，營收貢獻從第三季的59%上升到第四季的65%。其他應用領域中，電腦應用成長7%，消費應用和工業應用分別下降21%和11%。

On a full-year basis, communication increased 39% and represented 59% of our revenue. The major contributing segments included baseband, application processors, image processors and display drivers. Another fast-growing application in 2014 was industrial and standard, which grew 30% year over year. The growth was mainly driven by increasing usage of power management ICs, near-field communications and audio codec within the mobile devices.

從全年來看，溝通業務成長了 39%，占我們收入的 59%。主要貢獻部分包括基頻、應用處理器、影像處理器和顯示驅動器。2014年另一個快速成長的應用是工業和標準應用，較去年同期成長30%。成長主要得益於行動裝置中電源管理IC、近場通訊和音訊編解碼器的使用增加。

By technology, 20-nanometer revenue contribution started with a very small number in the second quarter, jumped to 9% in the third quarter and reached 21% in the fourth quarter. Such unprecedented ramp cannot be achieved without seamless teamwork with our customer, the R&D and operational people in TSMC.

從技術面來看，20奈米營收貢獻在第二季還很小，第三季躍升至9%，第四季更是達到21%。如果沒有與客戶以及台積電研發和營運人員的無縫合作，我們就無法實現如此前所未有的成長。

On a full-year basis, 20 nanometer accounted for about 9% of our full-year wafer revenue. Looking forward, we are confident that 20 nanometer will continue its momentum to contribute 20% of the revenue for the whole year 2015.

從全年來看，20奈米約占我們全年晶圓收入的9%。展望未來，我們有信心20奈米將持續維持發展勢頭，為2015年全年貢獻20%的營收。

Meanwhile, customer demand for our 28-nanometer wafers remained strong. Accordingly, these two advanced technologies, 20 nanometer plus 28 nanometer, represented 51% of our fourth-quarter total wafer revenue, a big increase from 43% in the third quarter.

同時，客戶對我們的28奈米晶圓的需求依然強勁。因此，20奈米加上28奈米這兩項先進技術占我們第四季晶圓總收入的51％，較第三季的43％大幅成長。

Now let me move on to the balance sheet. On the asset side, cash and marketable securities increased TWD147b to reach TWD437b at the end of the fourth quarter, mainly due to higher free cash flow generated from the fourth quarter and the receipt of a TWD30b guarantee deposit.

現在讓我來看看資產負債表。資產方面，現金及有價證券增加1,470億新台幣，至第四季末的4,370億新台幣，主要由於第四季產生的自由現金流增加，以及收到300億新台幣的保證金。

Total liabilities increased by TWD56b, mainly due to increase in guarantee deposit, increase in tax payable and employee profit sharing.

總負債增加560億新台幣，主要由於保證金存款增加、應繳稅費增加及員工利潤分享增加。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days was 47 days. Days of inventory increased by 2 days to 58 days, reflecting longer production cycle time for leading nodes.

從財務比率來看，應收帳款週轉天數為47天。庫存天數增加2天至58天，反映領先節點生產週期延長。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD153b cash from operations and invested TWD52b in capital expenditure. As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD101b in this quarter. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD132b to reach TWD358b at the end of the quarter.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第四季度，我們從經營活動中產生了約1,530億新台幣的現金，並投資了520億新台幣的資本支出。因此，我們本季產生了1,010億新台幣的自由現金流。整體而言，我們的現金餘額增加了1,320億新台幣，截至本季末達到3,580億新台幣。

In US dollar terms, our fourth-quarter capital expenditure was $1.7b. This adds to the total of $9.5b of capital expenditure for 2014.

以美元計算，我們第四季的資本支出為 17 億美元。這使得2014年的資本支出總額達到95億美元。

Now I would like to give you a recap of our total performance in 2014. TSMC set a record in terms of revenue and earnings in 2014. Our revenue grew 27.8% year over year to reach TWD763b or $25b in US dollar terms.

現在，我想向大家回顧一下我們2014年的整體表現。2014年，台積電營收和獲利均創下紀錄。我們的營收年增27.8%，達到7,630億新台幣，以美元計算為250億美元。

On profitability, although the rising depreciation and fast ramp of 20 nanometer has indeed put pressure on our margins, our gross margin actually improved 2.4 percentage points to reach 49.5%. This is because the capacity we invested were fully utilized. And we continued the productivity and cost improvement and, to a lesser degree, a favorable foreign exchange rate environment.

在獲利能力方面，雖然折舊增加及20奈米快速爬坡確實對我們的利潤率造成壓力，但我們的毛利率實際上提高了2.4個百分點，達到49.5%。這是因為我們投資的產能已經充分利用了。我們持續提高生產力和降低成本，並在較小程度上創造有利的外匯匯率環境。

Our operating margin increased 3.7 percentage points to reach 38.8%. This demonstrated our ability to drive higher operating efficiency.

我們的營業利益率增加了3.7個百分點，達到38.8%。這證明了我們有能力提高營運效率。

The operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased from 12% in 2013 to 10.6% in 2014. As a result, our full-year earnings per share increased by 40% to reach the historical high level of TWD10.18 per share.

營業費用佔收入的比例從 2013 年的 12% 下降到 2014 年的 10.6%。全年每股盈餘成長40%，達每股10.18元的歷史新高。

On cash flow, we spent TWD289b in capital expenditure, which is about the same level as 2013. Meanwhile, our operating cash flow increased 21% to reach TWD422b. Accordingly our free cash flow more than doubled in 2014.

現金流方面，我們資本支出2890億新台幣，與2013年大致相同。同時，我們的經營現金流增加21%，達4,220億新台幣。因此，2014年我們的自由現金流增加了一倍以上。

Overall, our ROE increased by 3.9 percentage point from last year to reach 27.9% in 2014. We exceeded our long-term financial goal of equal or bigger than 20%.

整體來看，2014年我們的淨資產收益率較去年同期上升3.9個百分點，達到27.9%。我們超額完成了等於或大於20%的長期財務目標。

I have finished my report on the financial part. Now let me turn to the first-quarter outlook.

我已經完成財務部分的報告。現在我來談談第一季的展望。

We expect a slightly weaker demand in the first quarter due to seasonality. However, we also anticipate that the more favorable foreign exchange rate will moderate the seasonal weakness. Based on current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD31.80, we expect our first-quarter revenue to be between TWD221b and TWD224b, representing a flattish quarter.

由於季節性原因，我們預期第一季的需求會略微減弱。不過，我們也預期更有利的外匯匯率將緩解季節性疲軟。根據目前的業務預期和預測匯率31.80新台幣，我們預計第一季營收將在2,210億至2,240億新台幣之間，較上一季持平。

In terms of margins, we expect the first-quarter gross margin to be between 48.5% and 50.5%. And we expect operating margin to be between 38.5% and 40.5%.

利潤率方面，我們預期第一季毛利率在48.5%至50.5%之間。我們預計營業利潤率在 38.5% 至 40.5% 之間。

This concludes my remarks. Thank you very much.

我的發言到此結束。非常感謝。

Now our executives will deliver the key messages. The messages will be offered by our CFO as well as by the two Presidents and Co-CEOs. We will start with Lora.

現在我們的高階主管將傳達重要訊息。我們的財務長以及兩位總裁和聯席執行長都將傳達這些訊息。我們將從 Lora 開始。

I will make a few comments. I will start with the capital expenditure for this year.

我將發表幾點評論。我先來談談今年的資本支出。

As we continue to expand our business in advanced technologies, we estimate our 2015 capital expenditure to be between $11.5b to $12b, which is about a 20% to 25% year-over-year increase.

隨著我們繼續擴大先進技術業務，我們預計 2015 年資本支出將在 115 億美元至 120 億美元之間，年增約 20% 至 25%。

In addition to the investments for 16-nanometer capacity, we also spend for 10-nanometer tools and facilities to be ready for customer product tape-out by end of this year.

除了對 16 奈米產能的投資外，我們還投資了 10 奈米工具和設施，以便在今年年底前為客戶產品的流片做好準備。

More than 80% of the planned CapEx is budgeted for advanced technologies, while 8-inch capacity, tools for specialty technologies and back-end capacity investment constitute the rest of the 20% of 2015 budget.

計畫資本支出的 80% 以上用於先進技術，而 8 吋產能、特殊技術工具和後端產能投資則構成了 2015 年預算的剩餘 20%。

I'd also like to make some comments on the solid-state lighting selling. As you know, last Friday, January 9, upon TSMC's Board of Directors' approval, we have signed a contract with Epistar to sell TSMC's entire holding shares, which is 94%, of TSMC Solid-State Lighting to Epistar and we will exit the LED industry.

我還想對固態照明的銷售發表一些評論。大家知道，1月9日上週五，經台積電董事會批准，我們與晶元光電簽訂了合同，將台積電所持有的台積電固態照明94%的股份全部轉讓給晶元光電，並退出LED行業。

Despite several years of dedication and hard work, as a late entrant to the LED industry, TSMC Solid-State Lighting faced difficulties overcoming patent obstacles and sales channels. Not seeing how the company will be able to reach profitability due to the oversupply exacerbated by massive expansions of LED companies worldwide, we have decided to transfer the ownership to Epistar, which is the world's largest manufacturer of LED epitaxial wafers and dies.

儘管經過數年的耕耘與努力，但身為LED產業的後進者，台積電固態照明仍面臨專利障礙與銷售管道難題。由於全球範圍內 LED 公司大規模擴張導致供應過剩，我們認為該公司如何能夠實現盈利，因此我們決定將所有權轉讓給晶元光電，後者是全球最大的 LED 外延片和晶片製造商。

The share transfer is valued at TWD1.46 per share, with the total proceeds of TWD825m to TSMC. We have taken TWD740m in impairment loss in the fourth quarter last year, with a minimal impact of EPS by about TWD0.03.

此次股份轉讓價格為每股1.46新台幣，台積電總收益為8.25億新台幣。我們去年第四季提列了7.4億新台幣的減損損失，對每股盈餘的影響很小，約0.03新台幣。

The most important part of this deal is that no Solid-State Lighting employee loses his job. Everybody has a job.

這項協議最重要的部分是，沒有任何一位 Solid-State Lighting 員工會失去工作。每個人都有工作。

My last comment is about the ASML stock sale. As you know, in August 2012 we acquired about 21m shares of ASML under its customer co-investment program. The purchase price was EUR39.91 per share for a total of EUR838m. There was a lock-up period of 2.5 years.

我的最後一條評論是關於 ASML 股票出售的。如您所知，2012 年 8 月，我們根據客戶共同投資計畫收購了 ASML 約 2,100 萬股股票。收購價格為每股 39.91 歐元，共 8.38 億歐元。鎖定期為2.5年。

In the last two years, TSMC has entered several hedging contracts that fully covered our position, with an average hedge price of EUR62.59 per share, resulting in a lock-in profit of EUR483.5m. As the lock-up period is to be expired in April this year, we will be able to book a total profit of about TWD21b in 2015. This one-time non-op gain is expected to increase our EPS by TWD0.61 in second quarter and TWD0.13 in third quarter, and for the full year will be about TWD0.75.

過去兩年，台積電已簽訂數份全額覆蓋部位的避險合約，平均避險價格為每股62.59歐元，鎖定利潤4.835億歐元。由於今年4月禁售期將結束，2015年可實現利潤總額約210億新台幣。該一次性非經營性收益預計將使第二季每股收益增加0.61新台幣，第三季每股收益增加0.13新台幣，全年每股收益增加約0.75新台幣。

That concludes my remark. Let me turn the podium to C.C. -- to Mark.

我的評論到此結束。讓我把講台轉向 C.C.。 ——致馬克。

Okay. I will follow to give you key messages on the near-term demand. We just -- we have just concluded a strong 2014, with a 27.8% revenue growth. In particular, the strong demand of our 20 SoC overcome the normal inventory adjustment pattern and enable a 6.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in the fourth quarter 2014.

好的。我將隨後向您傳達有關近期需求的關鍵訊息。我們剛結束了強勁的2014年，營收成長了27.8%。尤其是20款SoC的強勁需求，克服了正常的庫存調整模式，使得2014年第四季實現了6.4%的環比成長。

The fabless company exited 2014, based on our estimates, with the days of inventory 2 days below seasonal. That is from a 4 days above in the third quarter. Now we see such inventory adjustment should come to a close. We estimate the days of inventory at the end of the first quarter 2015 should be 1 day below seasonal level.

根據我們的估計，這家無晶圓廠公司的 2014 年末庫存天數比季節性庫存天數低 2 天。這比第三季高出 4 天。現在我們看到這種庫存調整應該已經結束。我們預計2015年第一季末的庫存天數將比季節性低1天。

So we see our near-term demand is quite healthy. Since our fourth quarter last year set a high base, we guide a good quarter for the first quarter 2015, with substantially flat from fourth quarter 2014, and clearly better than our seasonal again.

因此，我們認為近期需求相當健康。由於我們去年第四季奠定了較高的基數，我們預計2015年第一季將會表現良好，與2014年第四季基本持平，明顯優於季節性因素。

Looking forward to 2015, it should be another upbeat year. We forecast the semiconductor industry revenue growth to be 5%. The foundry revenue growth is 12%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth by several percentage points in 2015.

展望 2015 年，應該又是充滿樂觀的一年。我們預測半導體產業收入成長率為5%。代工收入成長12%。對於台積電來說，我們有信心在2015年實現比代工收入成長高出幾個百分點。

Now I'll give you a few words on 10-nanometer development update. Our 10-nanometer technology development is progressing and our qualification schedule at the end of 2015, end of this year, remains the same. We are now working with customers for their product tape-outs. We expect its volume production in 2017.

現在我將就10奈米開發的最新進展向大家介紹一下。我們的 10 奈米技術開發正在取得進展，2015 年底（今年年底）的認證時間表保持不變。我們目前正在與客戶合作進行他們的產品流片。我們預計將於 2017 年實現量產。

On the new technology development in TSMC, I'll begin with beyond 10 nanometer I just talked about. We are now working on our future-generation platform technology development, with separate dedicated R&D development teams. These technologies will be offered in the 2017-to-2019 period. We are committed to push forward our technology envelope along the silicon scaling path.

關於台積電的新科技發展，我先從剛才講的10奈米以後講起。我們目前正致力於未來一代平台技術的開發，並擁有獨立的專門研發團隊。這些技術將在 2017 年至 2019 年期間推出。我們致力於沿著矽片縮放路徑推動我們的技術進步。

In addition to the silicon device scaling, we are also working on the system scaling through advanced packaging to increase system bandwidth, to decrease power consumption and device form factors. Our first-generation InFO technology has been qualified. Currently we are qualifying customer InFO products with 16-nanometer technology. And it will be ready for volume ramp next year, 2016. We are now working on our second-generation InFO technology to supplement the silicon scaling of 10-nanometer generation.

除了矽元件的縮小之外，我們還致力於透過先進的封裝來實現系統縮小，以增加系統頻寬、降低功耗和裝置外形尺寸。我們的第一代InFO技術已經獲得認證。目前我們正在採用 16 奈米技術對客戶的 InFO 產品進行認證。該公司將於明年（2016年）做好產量提升的準備。我們目前正在研發第二代 InFO 技術，以補充 10 奈米時代的矽片縮放。

On the other side, in addition to the recently announced 55ULP ultra-low power technology, 40ULP, 28ULP technologies for ultra-low power application, such as wearable and IoT, we are also working on 16ULP technology development. This 16ULP design kit will be available in June this year. It will be just suitable for both high-performance and ultra-low power or ultra-low voltage, less than 0.6-volt applications.

另一方面，除了最近宣布的55ULP超低功耗技術、針對穿戴式、物聯網等超低功耗應用的40ULP、28ULP技術外，我們還在進行16ULP技術的開發。該16ULP設計套件將於今年6月上市。它非常適合高性能和超低功耗或超低電壓（低於 0.6 伏特）的應用。

Now I'll turn the microphone to C.C.

現在我將麥克風轉給 C.C.

Thank you, Mark. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'll update you on 28, 20, 16-nanometer status and the InFO business.

謝謝你，馬克。女士們、先生們，午安。我將向您通報 28、20、16 奈米的狀態和 InFO 業務。

First on 28 nanometer. Since year 2011, we started to ramp up 28-nanometer production. Up to now we have enjoyed a big success in terms of a good manufacturing result and, most importantly, the strong demand from our customers. This year we expect the success will continue.

首先是28奈米。自 2011 年起，我們開始加大 28 奈米的生產。到目前為止，我們在良好的生產業績以及最重要的客戶強勁需求方面取得了巨大的成功。今年我們期望成功能夠延續。

Let me give a little bit more detail, first on the demand side. The demand continues to grow, which are driven by the strong growth of mid- and low-end 4G smartphones, as well as the technology migration from some second-wave segments, such as the radio frequency, hard disk drive, flash controller, connectivity and digital consumers.

讓我更詳細地講一下，首先是需求面。需求持續成長，主要是受中低階4G智慧型手機的強勁成長，以及射頻、硬碟、快閃記憶體控制器、連接性和數位消費者等一些第二波領域的技術遷移所推動。

Second, on the technology improvement, we continue our effort to enhance 28-nanometer technology by improving the speed performance while reducing the power consumption. 28HPC, 28 ultra-low power technology are some examples.

第二，在技術改進上，我們持續努力增強28奈米技術，提高速度效能，同時降低功耗。28HPC、28超低功耗技術就是一些例子。

So to conclude the 28-nanometer status, we believe we can defend our segment share well because of excellent performance and performance/cost ratio and our superior defect density results.

因此，總結 28 奈米的地位，我們相信，由於出色的性能和性能/成本比以及優越的缺陷密度結果，我們可以很好地捍衛我們的市場份額。

Let's talk about the 20 SoC business status. After successfully ramp up in high volume last year, we expect to grow 20-nanometer business more than double this year due to high-end mobile device demand, which were generated by our customers' very competitive products. Our forecast of the 20-nanometer business, as Lora just pointed out, will contribute 20% of the total wafer revenue. That remains unchanged.

我們來談談20SoC業務現況。在去年成功實現大批量生產後，我們預計今年 20 奈米業務將成長一倍以上，這得益於客戶極具競爭力的產品所帶來的高端行動裝置需求。我們預測20奈米業務，如Lora剛才指出的，將貢獻晶圓總收入的20%。這一點依然沒有改變。

Now on 16-nanometer ramp-up. We expect to have more than 50 product tape-outs this year on 16-nanometer. High-volume production will start in third quarter, with meaningful revenue contribution starting in fourth quarter this year. In order to stress again what our Chairman already mentioned, that combining 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer we expect to enjoy overwhelming market segment share.

目前正處於 16 奈米製程升級階段。我們預計今年在 16 奈米技術上會有超過 50 個產品流片。大批量生產將於今年第三季開始，並將於第四季開始為公司帶來可觀的收入貢獻。為了再次強調我們的董事長已經提到的話，結合 20 奈米和 16 奈米，我們預計將佔據壓倒性的市場份額。

Last, I will update on the InFO business. The traction on InFO is strong. We have engaged with many customers. And a few of these customers are expected to ramp up in second quarter next year. Right now we are building a small pilot line in a new site to prepare for high-volume production next year. Also we expect this InFO technology will contribute sizeable revenue in 2016.

最後，我將更新 InFO 業務的情況。InFO 的吸引力非常大。我們已經與許多客戶進行了合作。其中一些客戶預計將在明年第二季增加產量。目前我們正在新工廠建造一條小型試驗生產線，為明年的大量生產做準備。我們也預計這項 InFO 技術將在 2016 年貢獻可觀的收入。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Okay. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions. Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call. Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your questions.

好的。我們的準備好的聲明到此結束。在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家每次提問的次數限制為兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提問。問題將從現場和電話中回答。如果您想用中文提出問題，我會將其翻譯成英文，然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。

(Conference Instructions). Now let's begin the Q&A session. First we will invite Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

（會議指示）。現在我們開始問答環節。首先我們邀請美國銀行美林的Dan Heyler。

Thank you. Good afternoon and congratulations on a fantastic 2014 and guidance. I had two questions. First I wanted to talk a bit about the ASP situation. You did talk about blended ASP. You did talk about growth in semis being 5% this year, foundry being 12% and TSMC growing several percentage points beyond that. Should we expect that your blended ASP should rise again this year and continue to rise in future years? Thank you.

謝謝。下午好，祝賀您度過了美好的 2014 年並得到指導。我有兩個問題。首先我想談談 ASP 的情況。您確實談到了混合 ASP。您確實談到了今年半導體產業的成長率為 5%，晶圓代工產業的成長率為 12%，而台積電的成長率則高出幾個百分點。我們是否應該預期您的混合 ASP 今年將再次上漲並在未來幾年繼續上漲？謝謝。

Dan, the answer is yes. We do expect the blended ASP will continue to grow in 2015.

丹，答案是肯定的。我們確實預計混合 ASP 將在 2015 年繼續成長。

In order of magnitude relative to last couple of years?

與過去幾年相比，其數量級如何？

We expect that trend will continue to the year after next year as well.

我們預計這一趨勢還將持續到後年。

Okay.

好的。

Order of magnitude, he said.

他說，數量級。

In low single-digit range year over year. In that range.

與去年同期相比，成長率處於低個位數範圍。在那個範圍內。

And the specific drivers of that? I know you're going to say mix, but could we talk in a little bit more detail on the drivers of ASP improvement as my follow-up?

其具體驅動因素為何？我知道你會說混合，但我們能否在後續更詳細地談談 ASP 改進的驅動因素？

I think it's just 20 will be bigger this year percentage-wise than last year. And 16 will start, and 16 will be much bigger next year than this year, etc. And 10. You know in the past several years our ASP has been increasing because the mix, the advanced technologies keep coming up. So that's the driving force.

我認為今年的百分比將比去年多 20%。16 即將啟動，而且明年的 16 將比今年大得多，等等。和 10。您知道，在過去幾年裡，我們的 ASP 一直在上漲，因為混合型、先進技術不斷湧現。這就是驅動力。

Thank you. And the second part, I guess as we look at your pie chart on your slide with communications and computer being amazingly only 9% of your revenue, and, say, 10 years ago that chart was much, much different, with computer being the biggest. As we look at computer opportunities going forward, I think to some extent there's maybe a sense of a little bit of disappointment in that we don't see ARM necessarily in PCs yet. We haven't really necessarily seen that ecosystem come through in the server business. And big data being such an important trend going forward, with compute growing about 15% per year, I'm wondering what TSMC is doing or what your view of that opportunity will be in the future as a potential growth driver. Thank you.

謝謝。第二部分，我想當我們看您投影片上的圓餅圖時會發現，通訊和電腦僅佔您收入的 9%，而 10 年前的圖表則有很大不同，當時電腦佔比最大。當我們展望未來的電腦機會時，我認為在某種程度上我們可能會感到有些失望，因為我們還沒有在個人電腦中看到 ARM。我們實際上並沒有看到這種生態系統在伺服器業務中得以實現。大數據是未來的重要趨勢，運算能力每年增長約 15％，我想知道台積電正在做什麼，或者您如何看待這個機會在未來作為潛在的成長動力。謝謝。

Server is one of them, Mark. Well there's IoT actually also, and just don't forget that mobile actually we think has a few more years to run yet. Really the TSMC silicon content in the average phone is actually increasing, which is something that is not recognized by a lot of people, because everybody says that the weight, the gravity is shifting to the middle level, lower-level priced phones. But according to our data, and we have kept track of it for quite a long time, the average of TSMC silicon content in the average phone is actually increasing.

伺服器就是其中之一，馬克。實際上還有物聯網，而且不要忘記，我們認為行動技術實際上還要運行幾年。事實上，一般手機中台積電的矽含量其實在增加，但很多人並沒有意識到這一點，因為大家都說重量、重心正在轉移到中階、低價的手機上。但根據我們長期追蹤的數據，普通手機中台積電矽含量的平均值實際上是在增加。

So -- and look, we still look for over -- I think the number we have is that by 2019 there'll be 2b phones manufactured. It is -- I think last year it was, what, 1.3b? I think, yes, 1.3b. 1.3b to 2b. And, well, and the average TSMC silicon content per phone is increasing. And the number of phones is going up. So that's by no means a -- it's still there. It's still a growth engine.

所以 — — 我們仍在尋找 — — 我認為我們得到的數字是，到 2019 年，將會生產出 20 億支手機。是的──我記得去年是13億吧？我認為是的，1.3b。1.3b 到 2b。而且，每支手機中台積電的平均矽含量正在增加。而且電話的數量也在增加。所以這絕不是——它仍然在那裡。它仍然是一個成長引擎。

And then IoT, I think we talked about IoT before, and now we are certainly not oblivious to the server possibility. So why don't I ask Mark to talk about the server and maybe C.C. will talk a little about the IoT.

然後是物聯網，我想我們之前討論過物聯網，現在我們當然不會忽略伺服器的可能性。那我為什麼不請馬克談談伺服器和可能的 C.C.我們會簡單談論一下物聯網。

Okay, Dan. I'll just respond to you on the server part. Chairman talked about the area we're mostly focused on, phone, today. And that would drive -- give us growth momentum in the next several years.

好的，丹。我只會就伺服器部分回覆您。主席今天談到了我們主要關注的領域——電話。這將推動我們未來幾年的成長動力。

On server, we work with the product innovators around the world. And such a field definitely we'll not lose in our radar screen and theirs. And TSMC has been, over the years, developed our technology to suit for high-power computing. And from 65, 40, 28 to 16 nanometer, we continuously improve our transistor performance. And today we believe our 16 FinFET Plus transistor performance probably is the top of -- is one of the top of the world. It's well suitable, well capable of doing the computing tasks.

在伺服器上，我們與世界各地的產品創新者合作。在這樣的領域我們絕對不會在我們的雷達屏幕和他們的雷達屏幕上丟失。多年來，台積電一直致力於開發適合高功率運算的技術。從 65、40、28 到 16 奈米，我們不斷提高電晶體的性能。今天我們相信我們的 16 FinFET Plus 電晶體性能可能是世界頂級的。它非常適合併且能夠很好地完成計算任務。

And actually before server, and there are several supercomputers around the world, in US and in Japan, already powered by our technology, doing the weather forecasting, whether the geo exploration applications today. And on the server, on ARM in particular, we have very close partnership with ARM in recent years. And ARM is a very innovative company. They produce CPU core and new architecture every year. And we reached our leading-edge technology very early with ARM and to design their leading-edge CPU cores. And that will continue and several of our customers are taking advantage of that.

實際上在伺服器出現之前，世界各地（美國和日本）就有幾台超級電腦採用了我們的技術，進行天氣預報，以及當今的地理勘探應用。在伺服器方面，特別是在 ARM 方面，我們近年來與 ARM 建立了非常密切的合作關係。ARM 是一家非常具有創新精神的公司。他們每年都會生產 CPU 核心和新架構。我們很早就與 ARM 合作，獲得了尖端技術，並設計了其尖端的 CPU 核心。這種狀況將會持續下去，我們的一些客戶也正在利用這一點。

Yes, in the past it's been getting into slower as expected. That's because the software ecosystem is slower to come. And -- but actually a lot of the server companies, system company is continuing investing in this ecosystem. Linux-based ecosystem is coming very strong too. So I think the trend will continue. And we will, with our customers, get into these segments in the next -- in the near future. Yes.

是的，過去它正如預期的那樣變得越來越慢。這是因為軟體生態系發展較慢。但實際上，很多伺服器公司和系統公司正在繼續投資這個生態系統。基於Linux的生態系統也正在變得非常強大。所以我認為這個趨勢將會持續下去。在不久的將來，我們將與我們的客戶一起進入這些領域。是的。

Okay. Can you say a few words about IoT?

好的。能談談物聯網 (IoT) 嗎？

Okay. For the IoT, that would be a big topic right now in the whole industry. All I want to say is that we are happy to share with you that, a long time ago, we already focused on our specialty technology, which are the CMOS image sensor, MEMs, embedded Flash, all those kind of things. Today we add another new technology, ultra-low power, into it. And that will be the basis for the IoT technology necessary in the future. We believe that when the time comes and IoT business becomes big, TSMC will be in a very good position to capture most of the business. That's what I share with you. Thank you.

好的。對於物聯網來說，這現在是整個產業的一個大話題。我想說的是，我們很高興與大家分享，很久以前，我們就已經專注於我們的特色技術，即CMOS影像感測器，MEM，嵌入式快閃記憶體等等。今天我們在其中添加了另一項新技術——超低功耗。這將是未來必需的物聯網技術的基礎。我們相信，當時機成熟，物聯網業務發展壯大時，台積電將處於非常有利的位置來奪得大部分業務。這就是我要跟大家分享的內容。謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next we will invite Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

接下來我們將邀請瑞士信貸的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Thank you. The first question, actually I wanted to ask about the CapEx increase, where it's moving up this year. Could you talk about the allocation? How much you plan for the 10 nanometer? How much for the 16? And then also if you still see growth out of 28 and the 8 inch, if there's plans to expand to 8 inch. So if you could give more flavor on the CapEx.

謝謝。第一個問題，實際上我想問的是資本支出的成長情況，今年資本支出成長的情況如何。能說一下分配嗎？您對 10 奈米的規劃是多少？16 的多少錢？如果您仍然看到 28 和 8 英寸的增長，那麼是否有計劃擴展到 8 英寸。因此，如果您可以對資本支出 (CapEx) 給予更多說明的話。

Yes, Randy, in my remarks I was talking about 80% of the CapEx goes to leading-edge technology. That actually covers a very big part of 16 FinFET capacity and also the 10 nanometer for the engineering line and R&D expenditure. But altogether leading-edge technology will be 80%. We are also increasing our investment in the backend, also in 8 inch. These two things together will be about 10% and the rest are the smaller items.

是的，蘭迪，我在演講中提到 80% 的資本支出用於尖端技術。這實際上涵蓋了 16 FinFET 產能的很大一部分以及 10 奈米的工程生產線和研發支出。但總的來說，前沿技術將佔80%。我們也正在增加對後端的投資，同樣是8吋的投資。這兩樣東西加起來大概佔10%，剩下的都是小件物品。

How big is the 10 nanometer?

10奈米有多大？

We do not disclose specific numbers.

我們不透露具體數字。

Okay. Sorry. Okay. And the follow-up question on profitability. If you could give a flavor on structural profitability for 2015 and some of the flavor for 20, how quick that may get to corporate margins, and for 16, because it's an extension, whether that could be near corporate margins as that comes up. And if you could give a comment on the inventory at current levels, if there's any -- if that will stay at these higher levels from the WIP you've been building or if that may come back down to a different level.

好的。對不起。好的。以及關於獲利能力的後續問題。如果您能對 2015 年的結構性盈利能力以及 20 年的部分情況進行介紹，那麼這可能會多快達到企業利潤率，以及 16 年，因為這是一個延伸，那麼是否會接近企業利潤率。如果您可以對當前水平的庫存做出評論，如果有的話 - 庫存是否會保持在您一直在構建的 WIP 的較高水平，或者是否可能會回到不同的水平。

Okay. Randy, you have multiple questions. I recall you asked for the structural profitability. That's you first question, right? From what we can see now, we are quite confident we can maintain equal or slightly better structural profitability, standard gross margin versus 2014.

好的。蘭迪，你有多個問題。我記得您曾經詢問過結構性獲利能力。這是你的第一個問題，對嗎？從目前的情況來看，我們非常有信心能夠維持與2014年相當或略高的結構性獲利能力、標準毛利率。

For the 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer ramping, how would that affect corporate margin? I have said in last July it usually takes seven or eight quarters for any new leading-edge technology to get close to the corporate average. So for 20 nanometer, it will take eight quarters. So we believe -- so 20 nanometer start to sell in second quarter 2014, and we expect by first quarter 2016, that's eight quarters, it will be at corporate average level.

對於 20 奈米和 16 奈米製程的提升，這會對企業利潤產生什麼影響？我去年七月就說過，任何新的尖端技術通常需要七到八個季度才能接近企業平均值。因此對於 20 奈米來說，需要八個季度。因此我們相信 20 奈米將在 2014 年第二季度開始銷售，我們預計到 2016 年第一季度，也就是八個季度後，它將達到企業平均水平。

For 16, we are going to mass produce this product. It will follow the similar trend. 16 nanometer will be based on the feature of 20 nanometer, so the margin will start to be higher. But it will also follow the similar trend. It takes seven quarters to reach to corporate average. So say we plan to mass produce 16 FinFET in third quarter 2015, so by first quarter 2017 you will get close to corporate average.

16年，我們準備大量生產這款產品。它將遵循類似的趨勢。16奈米將以20奈米為特徵，因此利潤率將開始更高。但它也會遵循類似的趨勢。達到企業平均需要七個季度。因此，假設我們計劃在 2015 年第三季量產 16 個 FinFET，那麼到 2017 年第一季度，產量就會接近企業平均值。

So there will -- before that there will be still small dilutions. For this year, the dilution will be 2 to 3 percentage points. And the last year, the second half will be 3 to 4 percentage points and very low in 2016.

因此，在此之前仍會出現少量稀釋。今年的稀釋度將為 2 至 3 個百分點。而去年、下半年將會是3到4個百分點，2016年則會非常低。

Okay. And then is there -- just the one follow-up on inventory. Is there any impact from the inventory at these current higher levels? Do you expect, because of the longer cycle time, inventory would stay at these inventory day levels or that would come back down to the historical levels or closer to history?

好的。然後就是 - 只需對庫存進行一次跟進。目前庫存水準較高，會產生什麼影響嗎？您是否預計，由於週期時間較長，庫存將保持在這些庫存天數水準或將回落至歷史水準或更接近歷史水準？

I think Mark has talked about the inventory level. We have went through the inventory depletion period. Now we see inventory was four days above seasonal in third quarter last year.

我認為馬克已經談論過庫存水準。我們已經經歷了庫存消耗期。現在我們看到，去年第三季的庫存比季節性庫存高出四天。

For TSMC's own inventory?

用於台積電自己的庫存？

Yes, TSMC's inventory level.

是的，台積電的庫存水準。

TSMC, you're talking about 50 days I was talking about. Okay. Normally in the past we have seen around 45 to 50 days, maybe 45 being average. This increase of inventory is mainly because of 20-nanometer ramp. It has much longer cycle time, both in the wafer fab, also in the backend. So that's the main reason our inventory is going up.

台積電，你說的是50天，我說的是50天。好的。過去我們通常看到的是 45 到 50 天左右，平均時間可能是 45 天。庫存增加主要是因為20奈米產能提升。無論是在晶圓廠還是在後端，它的週期時間都更長。這就是我們的庫存增加的主要原因。

So it will not continue to go up further. It will probably stay at the similar level, but it will not go down either.

因此它將不會繼續上漲。它可能會保持在相似的水平，但也不會下降。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right. Next we invite Citibank's Roland Shu.

好的。接下來我們邀請到花旗銀行的Roland Shu。

Hi. Good afternoon, Chairman, Mark, C.C. and Lora. The first question I would like to learn from Chairman, your view about the effective capacity of 14-nanometer. Since I think back to 40-nanometer days, you precisely foreseen the effective 40-nanometer definitely would be much smaller, like the capacity -- 40-nanometer capacity would be much smaller than the build -- building 40-nanometer capacity. So what's your view for 14 nanometer this time? Thank you.

你好。下午好，主席，馬克，C.C.和洛拉。第一個問題我想請教一下主席，您對14納米的有效容量的看法。因為我回想起 40 奈米時代，你準確地預見了有效的 40 奈米肯定會小得多，例如容量——40 奈米容量將比建造——建造 40 奈米容量小得多。那麼，您對這次的14奈米有何看法？謝謝。

Yes. So, Roland, your question is with respect to effective capacity, where Chairman has defined the capacity to be effective when you have a useful technology. So your question is wanting to hear from Chairman about the situation of 14/16 nanometer, what kind of effective capacity scenario we are facing today.

是的。所以，羅蘭，你的問題是關於有效容量的，主席已經定義了當你擁有有用的技術時有效的容量。所以你的問題是想聽聽主席關於14/16納米的情況，我們今天面臨什麼樣的有效產能情況。

And I defined effective capacity as what?

我對有效容量的定義是什麼？

A capacity with a useful technology.

具有有用技術的能力。

Yes. I think that back to 40-nanometer days, Chairman guided as the effective 40-nanometer capacity, that is it's going to be much smaller than the overall build capacity. So I just want to really learn from you what's your view for 14-nanometer effective capacity these days.

是的。我認為，回到 40 奈米時代，主席指導的有效 40 奈米容量將比整體建設容量小得多。所以我只是想真正地從您那裡了解您對目前 14 奈米有效容量的看法。

Yes. That is capacity that is going to be used, right?

是的。這就是將要使用的容量，對嗎？

Used also.

用過也。

That is going to make a profit for us, right? We are just in the middle of building up our 16-nanometer effective capacity strongly.

這會為我們帶來利潤，對吧？我們正大力建設16奈米有效產能。

I think Roland's question, you probably are asking us about --

我認為羅蘭的問題，你可能想問我們——

About overall, yes.

總體來說，是的。

Overall industry, whether or not other players are building effective capacity as well.

就整個產業而言，無論其他參與者是否也正在建立有效的產能。

Well I think I have pointed out many times in the past that some companies, some foundries build capacity on speculation, just like builders build houses or condos on speculation. They haven't sold them yet. Their speculation is that after they build the apartments or houses, they will be sold. But that doesn't always happen, of course.

嗯，我想我過去已經多次指出過，一些公司、一些代工廠基於投機而擴大產能，就像建築商基於投機而建造房屋或公寓一樣。他們還沒賣掉它們。他們猜測，建造完公寓或房屋後，就會出售。但當然，這種情況並不總是發生。

Now we, however, are different. We build capacity when we know that it's already sold.

但現在我們不同了。當我們知道產品已經售出時，我們就會擴大產能。

Maybe I ask in other way. So compared to 40-nanometer days, and now we're looking for the 14 capacity, do you think the effective capacity for 14-nanometer industry will be bigger or smaller than the effective capacity when you see at the 40-nanometer days?

也許我可以換種方式問。那麼與 40 奈米時代相比，現在我們正在尋找 14 奈米的產能，您認為 14 奈米產業的有效產能會比 40 奈米時代的有效產能更大還是更小？

Can you understand the question?

你能理解這個問題嗎？

Sort of.

有點。

40. He's talking about 40. Well tell me. Tell me.

40.他談論的是 40。好吧告訴我。告訴我。

Right. He's asking Chairman to compare 14 nanometer today versus 40 nanometer a few years ago in terms of the capacity.

正確的。他要求主席在容量方面比較一下今天的 14 奈米與幾年前的 40 奈米。

What today?

今天啥？

14/16. We should use 16. 16 nanometer versus 40 nanometer a few years ago.

14/16。我們應該使用 16。幾年前是 16 奈米，現在則是 40 奈米。

In what respect?

在什麼方面？

Whether the industry has oversupply in capacity. Whether the oversupply capacity is effective.

業產能是否過剩。產能過剩是否有效。

I don't know yet because, from the data we have now, I don't think -- you're talking about 14 right? 14, right? From the data we have now, I don't think that they're building too much 14 capacity. Am I correct? No? Everybody together. I don't think that everybody together is building -- from the data we have now, I don't think they are building too much capacity yet.

我還不知道，因為從我們目前掌握的數據來看，我認為——你說的是 14 對吧？14，對吧？從我們目前掌握的數據來看，我認為他們並沒有建造過多的 14 個容量。我說得對嗎？不？大家一起來。我不認為大家都在共同建設——從我們目前掌握的數據來看，我認為他們還沒有建造太多的產能。

But you want me to compare with 40. 40, yes, I think at about the same point in time in the 40-nanometer cycle, we -- well, my memory is a little hazy now. That was five, six years ago.

但你想讓我與 40 進行比較。40，是的，我認為在 40 奈米週期的大約同一時間點，我們 - 嗯，我的記憶現在有點模糊了。那是五、六年前的事了。

Too long ago. Yes.

太久以前了。是的。

Okay. Thank you very much. I think my second question is most investors are very happy to hear, Chairman, you have ranked return of shareholder as the top priority when you are running TSMC. But I think some of the customers probably are very upset to hear about the TSMC put the customer at much lower priority when you are running your business.

好的。非常感謝。我想我的第二個問題是大多數投資者都很高興聽到的，董事長，您把股東回報放在經營台積電的首要任務。但我想，有些客戶可能會對台積電經營業務時將客戶放在更低的優先順序感到非常不滿。

No. Customers have a very high priority in our Company. In fact very, very high. As I think we have said many times that we really have three major strengths. One is technology. Second is manufacturing. And third is customers' trust. And this has been our model ever since we started the Company almost 30 years ago. So no.

不。我們公司非常重視顧客。事實上非常非常高。我想我們已經多次說過，我們確實有三大優勢。一是技術。第二是製造業。第三是客戶的信任。自從我們 30 年前創立公司以來，這一直是我們的模式。所以不行。

Now if you are talking about we do, of course, place shareholders also in a very high priority, very high position. But I think that's quite common. And I think that's the way it should be.

現在，如果您談論的是，我們當然也將股東放在非常優先、非常高的地位。但我認為很常見。我認為這才是應該的。

But obviously you need very good customers. You need customers that trust us. We need customers that trust us, that work with us in order to satisfy our shareholders. It's part of the same equation.

但顯然你需要非常優質的客戶。您需要信任我們的客戶。我們需要信任我們、與我們合作以滿足我們股東需求的客戶。它是同一個等式的一部分。

Yes. I think maybe I should rephrase my question again. I think in the past TSMC, because your technology --.

是的。我想也許我應該再次重新措詞我的問題。我認為過去台積電由於你們的技術--。

Why do you rephrase your question all the time? Okay. Go ahead. Go ahead. Yes.

為什麼總是重複你的問題？好的。前進。前進。是的。

Okay. My question is simple. It's just for the profitability and also customer relationship. I think most of that, I think this is conflict. I think in the past you do very good profitability for TSMC. Probably some of the customers actually were not happy. So going forward, how TSMC to balance its profitability and the customer relationship?

好的。我的問題很簡單。這只是為了盈利和客戶關係。我認為其中大部分都是衝突。我認為過去你們為台積電帶來了非常好的獲利能力。可能有些顧客其實並不高興。那麼未來台積電如何平衡獲利能力和客戶關係呢？

So Roland, your point is that because we have very high profitability, therefore our customers are unhappy. That is not the right logic.

所以羅蘭，你的觀點是，因為我們的獲利能力很高，所以我們的客戶不滿意。這不是正確的邏輯。

Well, we think we earn our profit. We think everyone has to earn his profit. We think our customer has to earn his profit too. And I think they do think, our customers do think they earn their profit just as we think we earn our profit. But there are always people who think that you are making too much profit. Some of our customers' customers think that our customers are making too much profit too.

嗯，我們認為我們已經賺到了利潤。我們認為每個人都必須賺取自己的利潤。我們認為我們的客戶也必須賺取他的利潤。我認為他們確實認為，我們的客戶確實認為他們賺取了利潤，就像我們認為我們賺取了利潤一樣。但總有人認為你賺的太多了。我們的一些客戶的客戶也認為我們的客戶賺取了太多的利潤。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

But we think we earn our profit. And if any customer is unhappy with us, he sees me. He comes to see me. He comes to see us. Okay? And we try to correct the situation. We try to improve the situation.

但我們認為我們賺取了利潤。如果有顧客對我們不滿意，他就會來找我。他來看我。他來看望我們。好的？我們會盡力糾正這種情況。我們盡力改善這種情況。

Okay. Good. Next we invite Goldman Sachs' Donald Lu.

好的。好的。接下來我們邀請高盛的 Donald Lu。

Congratulations on very good 2014 results and also very strong 2015 CapEx guidance. I think this year maybe TSMC will top the world in logic.

恭喜您在 2014 年取得了非常好的業績，並且 2015 年資本支出預期也非常強勁。我覺得今年可能台積電在邏輯上會領先全世界。

Really?

真的嗎？

Maybe. Okay. So now I have two questions. One is, Chairman, about six months ago you gave us a comment on your estimate on TSMC's market share in FinFET in 2015, 2016, 2017. So has that changed?

或許。好的。所以現在我有兩個問題。一是，主席，大約六個月前，您就對台積電2015年、2016年、2017年FinFET市場份額的估計發表了評論。那麼情況有改變嗎？

Second question is, Lora, you commented that someone paid you TWD30b capacity guarantee. Is this something new? I don't remember that TSMC takes --.

第二個問題是，Lora，你說有人向你支付了300億新台幣的容量保證金。這是新鮮事嗎？我不記得台積電接受--。

What did you say? I didn't hear the last one.

你說什麼？我沒聽到最後一個。

The second question is about capacity guarantee of TWD30b.

第二個問題是關於300億新台幣的產能保障。

Yes, customer deposit.

是的，顧客押金。

Deposit. Customer deposit.

訂金。客戶押金。

It was a guarantee deposit. You're asking this is something new?

這是一筆保證金。你問這是新鮮事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Actually, I think more than 10 years ago, maybe 15 years ago, TSMC have done this with several customers. So it's not something really new.

實際上，我認為十多年前，也許十五年前，台積電就已經與幾個客戶這樣做了。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。

15 years ago.

15年前。

Late 1990s.

1990年代末。

Forgive me. That wasn't very --.

對不起。那不是很--。

But I think that -- but after that, I guess we didn't have them. Yes. I thought it was pretty good in the late 1990s, so we started again. Okay. The customer likes it too. Yes.

但我認為——但在那之後，我想我們就沒有它們了。是的。我認為 1990 年代後期它非常好，所以我們又重新開始了。好的。顧客也很喜歡它。是的。

So maybe you can explain a little bit like what it guarantees, TSMC's obligation on that and how long it will be looking into.

所以也許你可以稍微解釋一下，例如它保證了什麼，台積電對此的義務以及它需要調查多長時間。

Are we still answering the second question or are we -- I want to answer the first question. Donald's question was I said -- actually I looked up my statement at that time, July 16 of last year. I said on the subject of 16 and 20, 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer technology, I said that -- I actually made three statements.

我們還在回答第二個問題嗎，還是──我想回答第一個問題。唐納德的問題是，我說——實際上我查閱了我當時的聲明，即去年 7 月 16 日。我說過，關於 16 和 20、16 奈米和 20 奈米技術這個主題，我實際上已經發表了三點聲明。

The first statement was that because we started 16 a little late, our market share in 2015, our 16-nanometer market share in 2015 will be smaller than our major largest competitor's.

第一份聲明是，由於我們起步較晚，所以我們在 2015 年的市場份額，即 16 奈米市場份額將小於我們最大的主要競爭對手。

The second statement I made was that we started 16 late because we wanted to do 20. And so if you combine 20 and 16, our major competitor, who will be slightly ahead of us this year on the 16, he has very little 20. Almost no 20 at all. And if we combine 20 and 16, our combined share in this year will be much higher than that competitor's.

我做的第二個聲明是，我們之所以晚點開始做 16 個，是因為我們想做 20 個。因此，如果將 20 和 16 結合起來，我們的主要競爭對手，今年將在 16 上稍微領先我們，但他的 20 很少。幾乎沒有20。如果我們將 20 和 16 結合起來，我們今年的綜合份額將遠高於該競爭對手。

The third statement I made is that in 2016 we will have much larger share in just 16 nanometer than that competitor.

我的第三個聲明是，到 2016 年，我們在 16 奈米領域的份額將遠遠超過競爭對手。

All right. First I want to say that I, at this time, stand on those statements. In fact, I now will add a couple of statements. The statements I will add are -- that's fourth statement now. Okay? When we have a larger share of just 16 alone in 2016, the 16 market will also be much larger than this year, 2015. So, yes, we're slightly behind. We have a smaller market share in 2015 in a smaller market. Next year we will have a larger share, in fact much larger share, in a much larger market, 16.

好的。首先我想說的是，我目前堅持這些言論。事實上，我現在要補充幾點聲明。我要補充的聲明是──這是第四條聲明。好的？當我們在 2016 年單獨佔有 16 個更大份額時，16 個市場也將比今年（2015 年）大得多。是的，我們稍微落後了。2015 年，我們的市佔率也較小，市場規模也較小。明年，我們將在更大的市場（16）中佔據更大的份額，事實上是大得多的份額。

So -- and another statement I want to make is that I'm, at this point, very, very comfortable with all those statements that I have made on July 16 last year and the statements that I have added today. I'm very comfortable. I don't know whether I answered your question or not, Donald.

所以——我想發表的另一個聲明是，目前，我對去年 7 月 16 日發表的所有聲明以及今天補充的聲明感到非常非常滿意。我很舒服。我不知道我是否回答了你的問題，唐納德。

Yes. How about 2017, if --?

是的。如果是 2017 年的話呢？

What?

什麼？

2017.

2017年。

2017.

2017年。

What? Well, 2017, the share is going to continue. We're not going to lose the leadership on 16 market share once we recapture that in 2016. It's going to continue 2017, 2018. And also both 20 and 16 are going to live longer than you might think now. Well 28, for that matter, will also live longer than you'd think.

什麼？那麼，2017年，這一份額還會繼續。一旦我們在 2016 年重新奪回 16 個市場份額的領導地位，我們就不會失去它。2017 年、2018 年這種情況還會持續下去。而且 20 歲和 16 歲的人的壽命都會比你現在想像的還要長。那麼 28 歲也會比你想像的活得更長。

Okay. Next we will invite Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

好的。接下來我們邀請德意志銀行的Michael Chou。

Thank you. Chairman, do you see 16-nanometer FinFET Plus PPA is better than tier-two foundries' 14-nanometer at this moment? Given that you mentioned you expect TSMC's 16-nanometer market share should be higher than your major competitor in 2016, but based --.

謝謝。主席，您認為目前 16 奈米 FinFET Plus PPA 是否比二線代工廠的 14 奈米更好？鑑於您提到，您預計台積電 2016 年 16 奈米市場份額將高於您的主要競爭對手，但基於—。

What?

什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Based on current R&D progress or any product design progress, do you think that your PPA of 16-nanometer FinFET Plus is better than your competitors' PPA 14 nanometer?

根據目前的研發進度或任何產品設計進度，您認為您們的 16 奈米 FinFET Plus PPA 比競爭對手的 14 奈米 PPA 更好嗎？

PPK?

丙酸桿菌？

PPA. Power, performance.

電力價格協議。動力、性能。

PPA. All right. Okay. So Michael's question is if we look at the definition of the technology in terms of performance, power and area, is our 16 nanometer better than our competitors?

電力價格協議。好的。好的。所以麥可的問題是，如果我們從性能、功率和麵積的角度來看這項技術的定義，我們的 16 奈米是否比我們的競爭對手更好？

[Obviously], yes.

[顯然] 是的。

As a follow-up, do you think that your most customers will stay in your 16 nanometer rather than shift to tier-two foundries? For over the next 18 months, will stay in your 16-nanometer FinFET Plus rather than move to your competitors' 14 nanometer?

接下來的問題是，您是否認為您的大多數客戶會留在 16 奈米製程上，而不是轉向二線代工廠？在接下來的 18 個月內，您會繼續使用 16 奈米 FinFET Plus 而不是轉向競爭對手的 14 奈米嗎？

You mean after we have ramped 16 FinFET Plus, will our customers shift to our competition's offer?

您的意思是，在我們推出 16 FinFET Plus 之後，我們的客戶是否會轉向我們競爭對手的產品？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I thought the question has been answered already. Once we capture that larger share, we stay here for many years.

好吧，我以為這個問題已經得到解答了。一旦我們佔領了更大的份額，我們就會在這裡待很多年。

Okay. Let me put it another way. Can we say your 16-nanometer market share in 2016 will be quite similar to your dominance in 28 nanometer, given that your 20 nanometer is the only provider? So the apple-to-apple comparison should be 28 to 16 nanometer.

好的。讓我換個說法。鑑於你們是唯一的 20 奈米供應商，我們是否可以說你們在 2016 年的 16 奈米市場份額將與你們在 28 奈米市場的主導地位非常相似？因此，同類比較應該是 28 奈米比 16 奈米。

So market share in 16 nanometer in 2016, will that be the same as our market share at 28 nanometer, I would say, back in 2013, 2014?

那麼 2016 年 16 奈米的市佔率會與我們 2013 年、2014 年 28 奈米的市佔率相同嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, no, I don't think so, because 28, of course we were virtually sole source. And 16, we already know we're not. There's at least one major competitor and then there's another one that's just eager to get in. I don't mean that first competitor's accessory, I mean another one.

嗯，不，我不這麼認為，因為 28，當然我們實際上是唯一的來源。而 16 歲時，我們已經知道自己不是。至少有一個主要競爭對手，然後還有另一個渴望加入的競爭對手。我並不是指第一個競爭對手的配件，而是指另一個。

Second question is regarding the InFO. Do you expect the gross margin of InFO will have a negative impact to your overall gross margin 2016 or beyond, given that you mentioned it could be sizeable revenue in 2016?

第二個問題是關於 InFO。鑑於您提到 InFO 可能會在 2016 年帶來可觀的收入，您是否預計 InFO 的毛利率會對您 2016 年或以後的整體毛利率產生負面影響？

So your question is whether or not InFO business in 2016 will impact our margins?

所以您的問題是 2016 年的 InFO 業務是否會影響我們的利潤率？

Yes.

是的。

Whether InFO will impact our margins.

InFO 是否會影響我們的利潤。

No, probably not. The back-end business actually is a lower margin, but the turnover is faster. So put two together, it's comparable.

不，可能不是。後端業務其實利潤率較低，但是周轉速度較快。所以把兩個放在一起，就可以比較了。

InFO will have lower margin than our wafers business, but it will actually have higher return on invested capital than our wafer business.

InFO的利潤率將低於我們的晶圓業務，但其投資資本回報率實際上將高於我們的晶圓業務。

Okay. I think we really should go to the line and invite questions there. Operator, could you please invite the first caller on the line?

好的。我認為我們確實應該去現場提出問題。接線生，您能邀請第一位來電者嗎？

Brett Simpson, Arete.

布雷特·辛普森，阿雷特。

Thank you very much. My question is around 28 nanometer. You're running a large capacity at 28 nanometer at the moment. So can you share with us what your capacity plan is for 28? As you migrate more business to 20 nanometer and below over the next couple of years, do you intend to convert 28-nanometer capacity to lower nodes, or do you think you can keep the existing 28-nanometer capacity running full going forward.

非常感謝。我的問題與 28 奈米有關。您目前正在以 28 奈米的規模運行大容量。那麼您能與我們分享一下 28 的容量方案嗎？當您在未來幾年將更多的業務遷移到 20 奈米及以下節點時，您是否打算將 28 奈米產能轉換為更低的節點，或者您是否認為可以讓現有的 28 奈米產能繼續滿載運轉。

All right. Let me repeat Brett's question so that people here can hear it better. Brett's question is TSMC's 28-nanometer capacity is very large. As our technology migrates to more advanced nodes, such as 20 and 16, in the next few years, what will be our plan on capacity of the 28 nanometer? Will we still have large demand to utilize those capacities or we need to do some changes?

好的。讓我重複一下布雷特的問題，以便這裡的人們可以聽得更清楚。Brett的問題是台積電的28奈米產能非常大。隨著我們的技術在未來幾年遷移到更先進的節點，例如20和16，我們對28奈米的產能計畫是什麼？我們仍會對利用這些產能產生很大的需求，或者我們需要做一些改變？

Every -- in every generation we worry a lot about the conversion loss we will suffer when we convert the equipment of that -- the existing capacity of that generation to the capacity of the next generation. Now, so we do two things. First, we try to minimize that conversion loss. And since we've been living with the problem for so long now, I think we're getting to be pretty good at it. So the conversion loss from one generation to another is normally in the low single digit, low middle single digit.

在每一代中，我們都非常擔心在將該代現有容量的設備轉換為下一代容量時將遭受的轉換損失。現在，我們做兩件事。首先，我們盡力減少轉換損失。而且由於我們已經與這個問題共存了很長時間，我想我們已經做得相當好了。因此，從一代到另一代的轉換損失通常處於低個位數或中低個位數。

Now the second thing we try to do is, and I think we actually have been doing it perhaps even more successfully than the first thing. The first thing was to try to minimize the conversion loss. The second thing we try to do is we try to prolong the life of each generation. And I was saying just five minutes ago that I think that the life of 28 nanometer may be longer than a lot of people think. And I mean it. Actually we're still making half-micron stuff. And we try to prolong the life of every generation as we continue to migrate to advanced technologies. And 28 is certainly a generation that we want to prolong the life of.

現在我們嘗試做的第二件事是，我認為我們實際上做得甚至可能比第一件事更成功。首先要盡力減少轉換損失。我們嘗試做的第二件事是盡力延長每一代的壽命。五分鐘前我還說過，我認為 28 奈米的壽命可能比很多人想像的還要長。我是認真的。實際上我們仍在製造半微米的東西。我們在不斷向先進技術邁進的同時，也努力延長每一代的壽命。28 歲無疑是我們想要延長壽命的世代。

All right. Brett, do you have a second question?

好的。布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes. My follow-up question is around China. And maybe you can share with us your plan for 28-nanometer production in China. Would you expect this to happen over the next 12/24 months? And what's the size of the potential production capacity you might be looking at in China?

是的。我的後續問題是關於中國的。也許您可以與我們分享您在中國 28 奈米生產的計劃。您預計這會在未來 12/24 個月內發生嗎？您認為中國的潛在生產能力有多大？

The question is --?

問題是——？

Whether or not we will build a 28-nanometer capacity in China in the next 12 to 24 months and how large will that be.

我們是否會在未來 12 到 24 個月內在中國建設 28 奈米產能，以及產能有多大。

We are seriously considering the possibility. And in fact we are gathering data and making contacts, etc. There are obviously both pluses and minuses. And we're seriously considering the proposition of making, well, 28 nanometer in China. And there are also barriers. But, as I said, at this stage we're exploring. We're seriously considering. We're exploring. We're gathering data and making contacts.

我們正在認真考慮這種可能性。事實上，我們正​​在收集數據、建立聯繫等等。顯然有優點也有缺點。我們正在認真考慮在中國生產 28 奈米技術的提案。但障礙也存在。但正如我所說，現階段我們還在探索。我們正在認真考慮。我們正在探索。我們正在收集數據並建立聯繫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right. Let's go back to the floor. Now it will be from Barclays' Andrew Lu.

好的。讓我們回到正題上。現在由巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lu 來發言。

Dr. Chang, Dr. Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei and CFO. (Spoken in foreign language). The first one is regarding the revenue outlook for the next few quarters. Are you expecting any single quarter, for the next few quarters, Q2, Q3, Q4, revenue below first quarter?

Chang 博士、Liu 博士和 C.C. 博士魏先生兼財務長。（用外語說）。第一個是關於未來幾季的營收前景。您預計未來幾季（第二季、第三季、第四季）的任何一個季度的收入將低於第一季嗎？

Andrew is asking us to give him a guidance whether or not our Q2, Q3, Q4 revenue will be lower than Q1 level.

安德魯要求我們給他一個預測，即我們的第二季、第三季、第四季的收入是否會低於第一季的水準。

Will Q2, Q3, Q4 be lower than Q1?

Q2、Q3、Q4會低於Q1嗎？

Any single quarter in your internal forecast saying will be lower than the first quarter?

您內部預測有哪個季度的銷售額會低於第一季嗎？

What is Q1 times four?

Q1 乘以四等於多少？

Not what the --.

不是什麼--。

I will work out the answer here, right here.

我將在這裡，在這裡找到答案。

Because that's the following what I am going to calculate, because, based on the estimates, Q1 is quite similar to Q4 from the revenue, from the EPS point of view, from OP margin guidance, gross margin guidance. If we times four, revenue is up 16% year over year and the EPS up 20% year over year.

因為這就是我要計算的，因為根據估計，從營收、每股盈餘、營業利潤率指引、毛利率指引來看，第一季與第四季非常相似。如果我們乘以四，營收年增 16%，每股盈餘較去年同期成長 20%。

That would be consistent with what Mark said. He said that we will outperform the foundry growth, which is, what, 12%? He said we would outperform it by several points.

這與馬克所說的一致。他說我們的業績將超越代工產業，也就是 12% 的成長？他說我們的表現會比它好幾個百分點。

Yes. But this is based on flattish environment. We've got no growth for the next few quarters. That's why I ask for any downside result.

是的。但這是基於平坦的環境。未來幾季我們不會有成長。這就是我詢問任何不利結果的原因。

All right. Let me just tell you what I think. I think we have upside. Okay?

好的。讓我告訴你我的想法。我認為我們還有優勢。好的？

Okay. That's now?

好的。就現在嗎？

In this year. Yes.

在這一年裡。是的。

And Andrew, I also have to remind you, the foundry numbers are based in US dollars, but the fourth-quarter or the first-quarter revenues are based in NT dollars.

安德魯，我還必須提醒你，代工數字是以美元為基礎的，但第四季或第一季的收入是以新台幣為基礎的。

Yes. Yes. Second question is are we still planning to raise our cash dividend?

是的。是的。第二個問題是我們是否仍計劃增加現金股利？

Well, look, yes, we are seriously considering it. But obviously I can't answer the question because the Board has to approve it. And then of course the shareholders' meeting has to approve it. And -- but --.

嗯，是的，我們正在認真考慮。但顯然我無法回答這個問題，因為董事會必須批准。然後當然必須得到股東大會的批准。而且——但是——。

What's in Dr. Chang's mind? What number in your mind?

張醫生心裡在想什麼？您心目中的數字是多少？

I'm not going to go there. I'm not going to go there. Yes.

我不會去那裡。我不會去那裡。是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Now we will invite HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

好的。現在我們邀請匯豐銀行的史蒂芬‧佩拉約 (Steven Pelayo)。

Thank you. It seems like, especially in the last week, there's been two or three key concerns people are talking about relative to TSMC. The first one's smartphone growth slowing down. I think your guidance for foundry market growing 12%, you growing several points faster, kind of answers that growth.

謝謝。似乎特別是在上週，人們談論的兩三個與台積電有關的關鍵問題。第一個是智慧型手機成長放緩。我認為您預測的代工市場成長 12%，您的成長速度比預期快幾個點，這在某種程度上回答了這種成長問題。

The next two concerns are really about competition, customer concentration. So I wonder if I just ask, you look at your top-three customers in 2015, do you expect them each to grow year on year and do they grow that several points above 12% foundry market?

接下來的兩個擔憂實際上是關於競爭和客戶集中。所以我想知道，我是否可以問一下，看看 2015 年您的三大客戶，您是否預計他們每年都會實現成長，並且他們的成長率是否會超過代工市場 12% 的幾個百分點？

Okay. Steven's question is regarding our top-three customers, whether or not their business with TSMC year-over-year growth rate will be at least in line with the foundries' 12% rate of growth.

好的。史蒂文的問題是關於我們的前三大客戶，他們與台積電的業務同比增長率是否至少與代工廠 12% 的增長率保持一致。

If we would just limit it to three, it's getting too specific because you almost know who the three are. And if I tell you anything, you will -- so let's say, let's say 20. Okay? Our top-20 customers. I expect the vast, vast majority of them to grow every year.

如果我們將其限制為三個，那就太具體了，因為你幾乎知道這三個人是誰。如果我告訴你任何事，你都會──比如說，比如說 20。好的？我們的前 20 名客戶。我預計其中絕大多數每年都會成長。

Okay. Well then maybe as a follow-up, I think we're all dancing around the same general questions. I asked this of you, I think, last quarter. At the 20-nanometer node, you have seven quarters of sequential growth, absolute dollars. 20 nanometer has ramped up so significantly because you've had some significant customer wins there. When you look at it on a quarterly basis, do you expect every quarter of 20 nanometer to be higher than the prior quarter in dollars as you go through 2015?

好的。那麼也許作為後續，我認為我們都在圍繞著同樣的一般性問題。我記得上個季度我問過您這個問題。在 20 奈米節點，有七個季度的連續成長（絕對美元）。20奈米技術之所以能取得如此顯著的進展，是因為你們在該領域贏得了一些重要的客戶。從季度角度來看，您是否預計 2015 年每季的 20 奈米產量美元價值都會比前一季更高？

You're asking 20 or 28?

你問的是 20 還是 28？

20 now.

現在 20 了。

20. Okay. 20 nanometer, every quarter in the following quarters, whether they will be higher than the prior quarter. 20 nanometer, every quarter, whether it will be higher than the prior quarter.

20.好的。20奈米，接下來的幾個季度每個季度，是否會比上一季有所提高。20奈米，每個季度，是否會比上一季增加。

This year?

今年？

This year.

今年。

I think the answer is yes. The answer is yes. And, by the way, going back to the last question, were you just asking about this year or every year from now on?

我認為答案是肯定的。答案是肯定的。順便說一下，回到上一個問題，您只是問今年的情況，還是問從現在起每年的情況？

I think the customer concentration concerns are primarily for this year, trying to offset such huge gains last year. And it appears as though you are absorbing this.

我認為對客戶集中度的擔憂主要針對今年，試圖抵銷去年的巨大收益。看起來你正在吸收這一點。

Well, my answer is still the same. Of the top 20, I expect the vast, vast majority of them will grow. Each will grow this year. Yes.

嗯，我的答案還是一樣。我預計，在排名前 20 名的公司中，絕大多數都會實現成長。今年它們都會成長。是的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right. Next questions will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

好的。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Hi there. Thanks very much. And also let me add my congratulations on a spectacular 2014.

你好呀。非常感謝。同時，我也要對輝煌的 2014 年表示祝賀。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My first question is on 28 nanometers. If I look at your capacity this year versus 2014, how much is the increase in capacity?

我的第一個問題是關於 28 奈米的。如果我看一下今年的產能與 2014 年相比，產能增加了多少？

28?

28？

28, yes.

28，是的。

C.C., do you want to answer the question?

C.C.，你想回答這個問題嗎？

High double digit.

高兩位數。

High double digit.

高兩位數。

You mean high teens or high double digit?

你是指十幾歲還是兩位數？

High teens. High teens actually.

十幾歲的時候。實際上是十幾歲的年輕人。

High teens. I'm sorry.

十幾歲的時候。對不起。

Okay. Great. Do you think revenue can grow? In other words, do you think ASP decline should be less than that unit growth?

好的。偉大的。您認為營收還能成長嗎？換句話說，您是否認為 ASP 的下降幅度應該低於單位產量的成長幅度？

We are not supposed to comment on a single node's price. I'm sorry. Our legal advice is not to comment on a single node's price.

我們不應該對單一節點的價格發表評論。對不起。我們的法律建議是不要對單一節點的價格發表評論。

Okay. Great. My second question is on your China strategy. I think you talked about potentially looking at 28 nanometers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding was that Taiwanese companies cannot do 28 in China. Can you talk a little bit more about that?

好的。偉大的。第二個問題是關於你們的中國戰略。我覺得您談到了可能研究 28 奈米。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我的理解是台灣公司無法在中國做到 28 家。能再進一步談談這個嗎？

What?

什麼？

28 nanometer --.

28奈米--.

I'm sorry -- yes, yes.

對不起——是的，是的。

28-nanometer manufacturing in China. So your question is most of the players cannot do 28 nanometer properly in China right now.

中國28奈米製造。所以你的問題是，目前大多數參與者在中國無法正確完成 28 奈米製程。

I thought, by law, Taiwanese companies cannot do 28.

我想，依法律規定，台灣公司不能做28家。

Taiwan.

台灣.

Taiwan, no. Actually Taiwan, I think there's a rule now that says you still have to apply in every instance. But the general rule is that N minus 1 technology is allowed. That's Taiwan. But you still have to apply in each case.

台灣，沒有。實際上，我認為台灣現在有一條規則，即你仍然必須在每種情況下都提出申請。但一般規則是允許使用 N 減 1 技術。那是台灣。但您仍然必須針對每種情況提出申請。

Okay. Next we will be having questions from UBS' Eric Chen.

好的。接下來我們將回答瑞銀 Eric Chen 提出的問題。

Hi. Very quick, my first question regarding to your China investment. So I would like to know why you pick the 28-nanometer process. And we know your China client already and do very good business with your TSMC and in Taiwan. So what's the point for you to build out the 28-nanometer process in China? And what is the trigger and what's the benefit? My first question.

你好。很快，我的第一個問題是關於你們在中國的投資。所以我想知道您為什麼選擇28奈米製程。我們已經了解您的中國客戶並且與您的台積電和台灣有非常好的生意往來。那麼在中國建造28奈米製程的意義何在？其誘因為何？其好處又是什麼？我的第一個問題。

Yes. So Eric's question is since most of our Chinese customers already do 28 nanometer with us in Taiwan, why do we need to go to China to capture the 28 nanometers there? What's the plus and the minus?

是的。因此 Eric 的問題是，既然我們大多數中國客戶已經在台灣與我們合作進行 28 奈米工藝，那麼我們為什麼還需要去中國去佔領那裡的 28 奈米工藝呢？優點和缺點是什麼？

Well, because they're telling us that, yes, they will continue to do 28 with us, but it would be better if they do 28 with us if we're in China.

嗯，因為他們告訴我們，是的，他們將繼續與我們進行 28 項合作，但如果我們在中國，他們最好也與我們進行 28 項合作。

Okay. So in this --.

好的。因此在這個--。

And you have to realize that there are companies, there are foundries in China that are also going to do 28 nanometer. And so they may prefer to buy from -- our customers may prefer to buy from the Chinese foundries when their 28 becomes available.

你必須意識到，中國的一些公司和工廠也將進行 28 奈米製程。因此，當中國的 28 家代工廠有貨時，我們的客戶可能更願意從中國代工廠購買。

Okay. Can we assume from the profitability point of view, there's no big change, no big difference between the manufacturing in Taiwan and the manufacturing in China, right?

好的。我們是否可以從獲利能力的角度假設，台灣製造與中國製造之間沒有大的變化，沒有大的區別，對嗎？

What's that?

那是什麼？

Whether or not the profitability -- in fact you are actually talking about cost.

無論是否獲利——事實上你談論的是成本。

Yes, and efficiency.

是的，而且效率很高。

Well there are pluses and minuses. Basically I think the cost that we have had the experience of, well, for more than 10 years now of operating an 8-inch factory in China, okay, cost seems to be -- the cost is higher. All right? That's a minus. But if you lose business, then it's even worse. All right?

嗯，有優點也有缺點。基本上，我認為，根據我們在中國運營 8 英寸工廠十多年的經驗，成本似乎更高。好的？這是一個缺點。但如果你失去了生意，那就更糟了。好的？

Okay. My second question regarding to the CapEx. With raise on the CapEx, I would say the CapEx is higher in the market expectation, so can we expect, can we assume all the equipment or capacity for the 16-nano FinFET probably will move ahead of all the earlier schedule? In terms of the 16-nano FinFET, the equipment schedule will now move ahead?

好的。我的第二個問題與資本支出有關。隨著資本支出的增加，我想說市場預期的資本支出會更高，那麼我們是否可以預期，我們是否可以假設 16 奈米 FinFET 的所有設備或產能可能會提前於先前的計劃？就16奈米FinFET而言，設備進度會提早嗎？

So, Eric, your question is since our CapEx guidance is higher than market expectation, whether or not we are moving the equipment earlier or ahead of our original schedule?

那麼，Eric，你的問題是，由於我們的資本支出指引高於市場預期，我們是否會比原計劃提前或提前移動設備？

Yes, for the 16.

是的，16 歲。

For 16 nanometer?

16奈米嗎？

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

I don't know what the market expectations are. We don't benchmark ourselves against market expectations. We benchmark ourselves against needs.

我不知道市場預期是什麼。我們不會拿市場預期來衡量自己。我們根據需求來衡量自己。

Yes. Right. Yes. Thank you. But, Dr. Chang, I remember the -- probably the six months ago, you talked about the -- or probably three months ago, six months ago, and in conference probably Lora mentioned the CapEx for this year probably slightly higher than year 2014. And so I assume we'd get more aggressive with the CapEx. Am I right?

是的。正確的。是的。謝謝。但是，張博士，我記得——大概是六個月前，您談到過——或者大概是三個月前、六個月前，在會議上，勞拉可能提到今年的資本支出可能略高於 2014 年。因此我認為我們會更積極地投入資本支出。我說得對嗎？

Well I think we have always been reasonably aggressive in CapEx, without speculating at all. So that's our standard. All right. So I don't know what your question is anyway. Are you asking whether we're moving in -- how soon we are buying the -- we're setting up the capacity? Is that what he says?

嗯，我認為我們在資本支出方面一直都相當積極，根本沒有進行任何投機。這就是我們的標準。好的。所以無論如何我都不知道你的問題是什麼。你是在問我們是否要搬進來——我們什麼時候購買——我們正在設定容量？他是這麼說的嗎？

Well, I think, Eric, you are really trying to see if we are becoming more confident and convinced of the demand so we are putting in the equipment sooner, right?

嗯，我認為，埃里克，你實際上是想看看我們是否變得更有信心並相信需求，所以我們會更快地投入設備，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I said earlier that we don't build capacity on speculation.

我之前說過，我們不會基於投機來建立產能。

So that's what we mean?

所以這就是我們的意思嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Okay. All right. So then next I think we will -- because JP Morgan's Gokul was already waving his hands and hence we'll give the microphone to him. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。好的。好的。那麼接下來我想我們會——因為摩根大通的 Gokul 已經揮手了，所以我們會把麥克風交給他。謝謝。

Congrats on a good 2014. And thanks for taking my questions. First, I had a question on there's been a lot of controversy about cost per transistor, whether Moore's law -- the economics of Moore's law are slowing down. Your competitor Intel has put out a very emphatic statement saying that until 7 nanometer they're seeing that continuing at the same pace as before. But there has been a lot of noise from the fabless community in the last couple of years that at 20 nanometer or at 16 nanometer there is a potential slowdown.

恭喜 2014 年一切順利。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我有一個問題，關於每個電晶體的成本存在著許多爭議，摩爾定律——摩爾定律的經濟學是否正在放緩。您的競爭對手英特爾發表了非常堅定的聲明，稱直到 7 奈米，他們仍將看到這一速度與以前相同。但在過去幾年中，無晶圓廠社區一直有傳言稱，20 奈米或 16 奈米製程可能會出現速度放緩的情況。

Could we have TSMC's version now that you're pretty much ready to start 10 nanometer and thinking already about 7? That's my first question.

既然您已經準備好開始 10 奈米工藝，並開始考慮 7 奈米工藝，那麼我們可以獲得台積電的版本嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

So, all right. Let me repeat. Gokul, your question is mainly on the comments on cost per transistor. Some of the other players, I think you're referring to Intel, who has made comments that they do see the cost per transistor to continue into 7 nanometer and so they can handle the economics of the Moore's law. Whereas, on the other hand, fabless companies begin to complain about not seeing enough economics, starting with 20 nanometer. So what is TSMC's statement regarding this economics issue?

那麼好吧。讓我重複一遍。Gokul，你的問題主要是關於每個電晶體的成本的評論。其他一些參與者，我想你指的是英特爾，他們曾評論說，他們確實看到每個電晶體的成本繼續下降到 7 奈米，因此他們可以應對摩爾定律的經濟性。另一方面，從 20 奈米開始，無晶圓廠公司就開始抱怨沒有看到足夠的經濟效益。那麼台積電對於這個經濟問題有何表態呢？

Let me answer this question. The cost of transistor continues to go down. And by scaling mostly is -- everybody knows, nobody I think has refused that statement -- we see the cost of transistor continues going down in a constant rate. And in going forward, the cost of transistor going down probably at slightly slower rate. That's the argument. But it really depends on companies. And for some companies simply do not have the technological capabilities. And today, further going down the Moore's Law technology developments, just a few.

讓我來回答這個問題。電晶體的成本持續下降。透過擴大規模——每個人都知道，我想沒有人會拒絕這個說法——我們看到晶體管的成本持續以恆定的速度下降。並且在未來，電晶體的成本下降速度可能會稍微慢一些。這就是爭論所在。但這確實取決於公司。而有些公司根本不具備技術能力。今天，進一步闡述摩爾定律的技術發展，僅舉幾例。

And we -- as far as whether those costs can -- is -- can get enough returns, and of course that has to do with how much that technology brings value to the product where they command the price. And today we see certain segments will continue to need that type of system performance to get enough return. So this is the reason we committed to push the system scaling.

而我們 — — 就這些成本是否能夠獲得足夠的回報而言，當然這與該技術為他們所定價的產品帶來多少價值有關。今天我們看到某些領域將繼續需要這種類型的系統效能才能獲得足夠的回報。這就是我們致力於推動系統擴展的原因。

So can we say that for customers who can afford it, it is still going to go down basically? Even at 10 nanometer, for customers who can afford it, afford the development cost and have the volume, the cost is still going to be going down substantially?

那麼，我們是否可以說，對於負擔得起的客戶來說，價格基本上還是會下降的？即使是 10 奈米，對於有能力、承擔得起開發成本且有產量的客戶來說，成本仍會大幅下降嗎？

Of course. Of course. It will go down very significantly, yes.

當然。當然。是的，它會大幅下降。

I had a second question, just a clarification on the 16-nanometer ramp-up. I think last conference C.C. mentioned that 16-nanometer ramp-up is likely to be at or even faster than the 20-nanometer ramp-up that we saw last year, with a five-quarter delay. So basically meaning that first quarter 2016, 16-nanometer revenues could be even higher than what 20-nanometer revenues were last quarter. Is that still the expectation for the 16-nanometer ramp-up in the next few quarters?

我還有第二個問題，只是想澄清一下 16 奈米的生產進度。我認為上次會議 C.C.提到 16 奈米產能提升可能會與去年我們看到的 20 奈米產能提升持平，甚至更快，延遲五個季度。因此基本上意味著 2016 年第一季度，16 奈米收入可能比上一季的 20 奈米收入更高。這仍然是對未來幾季 16 奈米產能提升的預期嗎？

What was the question?

問題是什麼？

The question is whether or not the speed of the ramp-up of 16-nanometer will be faster than the speed of the 20-nanometer ramp-up in the first three quarters.

問題在於前三個季度 16 奈米產能提升的速度是否會比 20 奈米產能提升的速度更快。

In the first three quarters, ramping-up speed was similar, but maybe a little bit faster, but very similar. I'm sorry.

前三個季度，成長速度差不多，但可能稍微快一點，但非常相似。對不起。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

All right. Due to --.

好的。由於 - 。

Don't we have any more questions from the --?

我們還有其他問題嗎？

There are people raising hands here. Okay. There is Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

這裡有人舉手。好的。還有大和的 Rick Hsu。

No, no. I mean overseas calls.

不，不。我指的是海外電話。

Go ahead, Rick. Thank you.

繼續吧，里克。謝謝。

Yes. Hi. Sure. I'll do this quick. Yes. This is Rick from Daiwa. So just got one question here. I remember in the last four years, post the financial crisis, I think TSMC tended to build about two fab shells per year for expansion a year ahead. But if I look at this year, correct me if I'm wrong, if I look at this year, it seems to me that you don't have any new fab shells under construction. So does that mean you guys are turning a bit more conservative in 2016 or 2017?

是的。你好。當然。我會很快完成這件事。是的。我是 Daiwa 的 Rick。我這裡只想問一個問題。我記得在過去四年裡，也就是金融危機之後，台積電傾向於每年建造大約兩座晶圓廠，以便提前一年擴張。但是如果我看今年的話，如果我錯了請糾正我，如果我看今年的話，在我看來你們沒有任何新的晶圓廠在建。那麼這是否意味著你們在 2016 年或 2017 年會變得更加保守一些？

So Rick is asking us whether or not we will be building new fab shells this year at the same speed as we did in the past, which is two shells per year.

所以 Rick 問我們，今年我們是否會以和過去一樣的速度建造新的晶圓廠，也就是每年兩座晶圓廠。

We will. We continue this trend.

我們將。我們將繼續這一趨勢。

Two shells a year.

每年兩枚砲彈。

Two shells almost for one generation.

兩殼幾乎相當於一代。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. Randy has a follow-up question.

好的。蘭迪有一個後續問題。

Thank you. My first question on the guidance you gave for first quarter is holding up pretty well flat. And looking at the last four to five years, it's also been much better than it used to be at the beginning of the year in the first quarter. If you could talk about if you're seeing seasonal patterns shifting more, customers getting more aggressive first half, and if you see the same type of scenario where we have second-half slowdown again, so if you see a different pattern of seasonality.

謝謝。我的第一個問題是，您對第一季的預測保持相當穩定。回顧過去四、五年，情況也比今年年初第一季好得多。您可以談談，如果您發現季節性模式發生更大變化，客戶在上半年變得更加積極，並且如果您看到相同的情況，即下半年再次出現放緩，那麼如果您看到不同的季節性模式。

Okay. Seasonality. Randy's observation was that in the past he saw our customers to be optimistic in the first half and then going through an inventory correction in the second half. Will we be seeing similar pattern this year?

好的。季節性。蘭迪的觀察是，過去他看到我們的客戶在上半年持樂觀態度，然後在下半年經歷庫存調整。今年我們會看到類似的模式嗎？

This year we just guided a strong first quarter because typically this first quarter is a slow quarter for us. So that's -- we being flat is considered as comfortable. For this year, because our -- more recently the smartphone announcement getting to the -- strongly affected the general inventory pattern. The smartphone launch, typically in the April timeframe and in September, and that will depend how much share we gain in each launch will affect our seasonal pattern.

今年我們預計第一季將表現強勁，因為通常第一季對我們來說是一個淡季。所以——我們認為平坦是舒適的。就今年而言，由於我們最近發布的智慧型手機發表會，強烈影響了整體庫存模式。智慧型手機的發布通常在四月和九月份，這將取決於我們在每次發布中獲得多少份額，這將影響我們的季節性模式。

For this year, the first quarter and -- for this year the pattern will be different than next year's. It will also be different than last year's. So that's the comment that has come into play with different share we have. Okay?

就今年第一季而言，今年的模式將與明年有所不同。它也將與去年有所不同。這就是與我們所持有的不同觀點有關的評論。好的？

Another follow-up question I want to ask. On the currency, we finally have NT dollar moving in your favor to support margin improvement. In the past, when you see NT dollar depreciate, can you typically sustain the incremental profitability? Or if NT were to stay at TWD32 or even move higher, do you eventually have to share it with your customers? Or how that typically plays out, if it remains better for the Company.

我想要問的另一個後續問題。在貨幣方面，新台幣最終朝著有利於您的方向發展，從而支持利潤率的提高。過去當新台幣貶值時，一般能維持增量獲利嗎？或者，如果新台幣保持在32新台幣甚至更高，你最終是否必須與你的客戶分享？或者如果這對公司來說更有利，通常會產生什麼結果。

Could you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Right. So, Randy, you are asking whether or not we can sustain the advantage coming from the currency -- the favorable exchange rate, right, sustaining beyond, say, the first quarter?

正確的。那麼，蘭迪，你是想問，我們是否能夠維持由貨幣帶來的優勢——有利的匯率，對吧，能否維持到第一季以後？

Well, yes, if we were to stay at TWD32.

嗯，是的，如果我們的房價是 32 台幣的話。

The ratio, I think we said earlier, a long time ago, by that I mean two, three years ago, that each point -- each percentage point of exchange rate change is equivalent to 0.4 percent point of our margin. I think you're asking whether that still holds true. Is that right?

我記得我們很久以前，也就是兩三年前就說過這個比例，也就是匯率每變動一個百分點，就相當於我們利潤率的 0.4 個百分點。我想您問的是這是否仍然正確。是嗎？

Or whether, if the currency stays at that level, if, over time, like if that's a permanent benefit, if we were to stay at TWD32 or over time you share some with your customers?

或者，如果貨幣保持在這個水平，如果隨著時間的推移，如果這是一項永久性的利益，如果我們保持在 TWD32 或隨著時間的推移你會與你的客戶分享一些？

So you're saying that since -- if NT dollar remained this low, whether or not we will share the exchange rate benefit, at least part of that, with our customers. Whether we will be sharing the exchange rate benefit with our customers, i.e. whether or not we are willing to take a lower US dollar price.

所以您的意思是，如果新台幣匯率保持如此低位，我們是否會與客戶分享匯率利益，至少是其中的一部分。我們是否會與我們的客戶分享匯率優惠，即我們是否願意接受較低的美元價格。

Well they didn't share the exchange rate loss with us.

他們沒有與我們分擔匯率損失。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. All right. Follow-up question from Roland. Citi's Roland Shu.

好的。好的。羅蘭的後續問題。花旗的 Roland Shu。

Thanks. Just a 10-nanometer question to C.C. Since, C.C., you said we are expecting to volume production of 10-nanometer in 2017. But I remember in the past two quarters actually our goal was to pulling in 10-nanometer mass production by end of 2016. So are we pushing out the 10-nanometer mass production schedule a little bit on that?

謝謝。我只想問 C.C. 關於 10 奈米的一個問題。因為，C.C.，您說我們預計在 2017 年實現 10 奈米的量產。但我記得在過去兩個季度中我們的目標是在 2016 年底實現 10 奈米的量產。那麼，我們是否會稍微延後 10 奈米量產計畫呢？

Let me explain that, because 10 nanometer, the mask layers is about 70 to 80. So you've got to start in 2016 to have output in 2017. So what I'm talking about is 2017 is to start to have revenue.

我來解釋一下，因為10奈米，所以掩模層數大約是70到80層。因此，你必須從 2016 年開始努力，才能在 2017 年取得產出。所以我說的是 2017 年開始有收入。

Okay. Thanks. So wafer start schedule definitely does not change.

好的。謝謝。所以晶圓開工時程表一定不會改變。

I cannot say more than that.

我不能再多說了。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Okay. All right. Andrew Lu also has follow-up question.

好的。好的。盧偉聰還有後續問題。

I remember last investor conference, C.C. Wei mentioned 16 FinFET revenue have a high single digit by Q4 this year and maybe few percentage by Q3. Is that number unchanged?

我記得上次投資者會議，C.C.魏提到，今年第四季度，16 FinFET 收入將達到高個位數，而到第三季度可能只有幾個百分點。這個數字沒有改變嗎？

Unchanged.

未變。

It sounds less confident.

聽起來不太有自信。

The more I say, the more that the information from the customer will be released.

我越說，客戶的資訊就越會被洩漏。

Okay. Understood.

好的。明白了。

All right. And, Andrew, you're done, right?

好的。安德魯，你已經完成了，對嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Now we're going to Dan Heyler.

好的。現在我們來談談丹·海勒。

Yes. Thanks. I had a question on the -- more the mature nodes situation. Saw a nice chunk of revenue there on the mature 12-inch nodes. As we move into IoT, there's a lot of interesting products that are coming up, ultra-low power for one. I'm wondering, as you look at the 40, 65 nodes, what's happening on device complexity? Is device complexity there increasing, because we hear about device complexity may be -- on the mature node may be increasing. I wonder if you have a view on that? Sorry, it's more design-related. What I'm getting at there is the ASP trends. I think there's a traditional view of mature technologies as being low-margin business.

是的。謝謝。我有一個關於更成熟節點情況的問題。在成熟的 12 吋節點上看到了一大筆收入。隨著我們進入物聯網領域，許多有趣的產品不斷湧現，其中之一就是超低功耗產品。我想知道，當您查看 40、65 個節點時，設備複雜性會發生什麼變化？設備的複雜性是否會增加，因為我們聽說成熟節點上的設備複雜性可能會增加。不知道您對此有何看法？抱歉，這與設計有關。我要說的是 ASP 趨勢。我認為，人們傳統上認為成熟的技術是低利潤的業務。

C.C., why don't you answer the question? Generally, yes, the device complexity on mature nodes is increasing. That's how we're prolonging the life of the mature nodes.

C.C.，為什麼不回答這個問題？總的來說，是的，成熟節點上的設備複雜性正在增加。這就是我們延長成熟節點壽命的方法。

Yes. Usually we develop the pure logic technology into the derivative technologies, which is more complex, complicated. One good example is from the logic to embedded Flash, when you add quite a few steps. When we come to CMOS image sensor or those kind of things, all, that's more complex. Yes.

是的。通常我們將純粹邏輯技術發展成衍生技術，這些技術更加複雜。一個很好的例子是從邏輯到嵌入的Flash，當你加入相當多的步驟。當我們談到 CMOS 影像感測器或類似的東西時，一切都變得更加複雜。是的。

So implications there for -- I would presume pricing and market share then would be, I guess, quite favorable. Does -- do you -- when device complexity goes up, does that hold blended ASPs flat or does it increase ASP in general terms?

因此，我認為定價和市場份額將非常有利。當設備複雜度增加時，混合 ASP 是否會保持不變，還是會整體增加 ASP？

What was the question again?

問題又是什麼？

Because of the complexity of the mature technology is increasing, whether we will benefit from ASP because of the --.

由於成熟技術的複雜性不斷增加，我們是否會因--而從ASP中獲益。

Whether we will what?

我們究竟會怎樣？

Our ASP will benefit.

我們的 ASP 將受益。

Will benefit?

會有好處嗎？

Does market ASP?

市場 ASP 是多少？

Well, actually I would say that our profitability has remained pretty constant over -- well, in the early stage, the profitability of a node is often low. As Lora pointed out, it takes about eight quarters for the margin to get to the corporate level. But after that, it stays pretty constant. Well it increases a little bit in fact. It increases.

嗯，實際上我想說我們的盈利能力一直保持相當穩定 - 在早期階段，節點的盈利能力通常較低。正如 Lora 指出的那樣，利潤率需要大約八個季度才能達到公司水準。但在此之後，它保持相當穩定。嗯，事實上它增加了一點點。它增加了。

Particularly in the last few years I think we have pushed up the structural profitability. And, yes, I think that the added complexity or the -- actually, a lot of new things are happening on the mature nodes. We -- so the mature nodes today are nothing like -- well, not nothing like, but only about 50%, 60% like what they were when they were first introduced. That's about right? Yes.

特別是在過去幾年，我認為我們已經提高了結構性獲利能力。是的，我認為增加了複雜性或——實際上，成熟節點上發生了很多新的事情。因此，當今成熟的節點與剛推出時完全不同，不是完全不同，而是只有大約 50% 到 60% 的相似度。那就對了？是的。

Thank you. Great. And the second question is on the -- do you think 28 revenue will grow this year? You expect it will? Okay.

謝謝。偉大的。第二個問題是－您認為今年的營收會成長嗎？您認為它會嗎？好的。

And then if that's the case, does the mature technology overall -- everything else, say 40 to 90, is that able to stay flat or does that go down, because there's still some -- a lot of migration taking place to 28. 28's a very attractive node. I'm just wondering what's happening on the 40, 65 and 90. Can that hold flat or does that decline?

如果情況確實如此，那麼成熟的技術整體上——其他一切，例如 40 到 90，是否能夠保持平穩，還是會下降，因為仍然存在一些——大量的遷移發生在 28。28 是一個非常有吸引力的節點。我只是想知道 40、65 和 90 上發生了什麼。能否保持平穩還是會下降？

I think it depends on nodes. Yes. So Dan's question is if we are growing our 20-nanometer revenue, we're growing our 28-nanometer revenue, whether or not our 40, 65, etc., those older nodes' revenue will be growing as well.

我認為這取決於節點。是的。所以丹的問題是，如果我們的 20 奈米收入增加，我們的 28 奈米收入也增加，那麼我們的 40、65 等舊節點的收入是否也會增加。

If I can make some comment on your questions. Actually we have very strong demand on those specialty technologies. As you know that the 0.15, 0.18, there's very high demand. And we are also increasing the technology offering for 40 nanometer and 65. From what I can see now, I believe the 2015, those mature technologies revenue will be bigger than 2014.

如果我可以對您的問題發表一些評論。實際上我們對這些專業技術的需求非常強烈。如您所知，0.15、0.18 的需求量非常高。我們也正在增加 40 奈米和 65 奈米的科技產品。從我目前看到的情況來看，我相信 2015 年這些成熟技術的收入將比 2014 年更大。

Excellent. Thank you.

出色的。謝謝。

All right. So I think really we will just allow two hands. Okay? It will first go to Michael and then it will be Steven. And then that will be the end.

好的。因此我認為我們實際上只允許兩隻手。好的？它將首先傳給邁克爾，然後再傳給史蒂文。然後一切就都結束了。

So sorry. Just the capacity increase this year, so what will be your forecast?

非常抱歉。只是今年的產能增加了，那您的預測是多少？

Okay. With the $11.5b to $12b CapEx, we expect to increase our capacity by about 11% to 12%.

好的。透過 115 億至 120 億美元的資本支出，我們預計產能將提高約 11% 至 12%。

Thank you. Steven?

謝謝。史蒂文？

The guidance for the first quarter is very, very impressive. And of course we're all going to try to reconcile that with the full year, Andrew's question, with the full-year guidance. I guess could we talk just a little bit about the second quarter, but talk about it relative to -- I think you mentioned last quarter and I think you did it last year, you had some -- you do some pre-building in the first quarter ahead of the second quarter. How much of that is impacting your first-quarter guidance?

第一季的業績指引非常令人印象深刻。當然，我們都將嘗試將其與安德魯的全年問題以及全年指導進行協調。我想我們可以稍微談一下第二季度的情況嗎，但請談談相對於——我想您提到過上個季度，我想您去年也做過一些——您在第二季度之前在第一季度做了一些預建設。這對您的第一季業績指引有多大影響？

Lora?

洛拉？

Very minimal. As we are going through the inventory depletions and this pre-build gets less and less, I think you know the purpose, trying to utilize the capacity without any waste. So it does help a little bit for the utilization. But it's getting lower and lower now.

非常簡約。隨著我們經歷庫存消耗並且預建越來越少，我想你知道目的，嘗試利用產能而不造成任何浪費。所以它確實對利用率有一點幫助。但現在越來越低了。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

All right. So I think, in the interest of time, we will end our conference here. Thank you for coming. And I hope we will see you next quarter. And good bye. Have a good day.

好的。因此我想，為了節省時間，我們的會議就到此結束。感謝您的到來。我希望我們能在下個季度見到您。再見。祝你有美好的一天。