台積電 ADR (TSM) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2014 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2014 年第四季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Before we begin, let me wish you a very happy and prosperous New Year.

在我們開始之前，讓我祝您新年快樂，萬事如意。

Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Miss Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and full year 2014, followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官何珏小姐將總結我們在 2014 年第四季度和全年的運營情況，然後是我們對本季度的指導。

Afterwards, CFO Lora and TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide our key messages.

隨後，CFO Lora 和台積電的兩位聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei，將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

After that, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Morris Chang, will host the Q&A session.

之後，台積電董事長張忠謀博士將主持問答環節。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website, www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice as this appears on our press release.

請參閱我們的新聞稿中出現的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Miss Lora Ho, for a summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台交給台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以獲得運營摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon and happy New Year to everyone.

下午好，祝大家新年快樂。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of our 2014 performance, followed by the guidance for the current quarter.

我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和我們 2014 年業績的回顧開始，然後是本季度的指導。

Fourth quarter was another record-breaking quarter for TSMC, with revenue, earnings per share and the cash balance all reached historical high levels.

第四季度是台積電又一個創紀錄的季度，營收、每股收益和現金餘額均創歷史新高。

Despite a moderate impact from supply chain inventory correction, our revenue increased 6.4% sequentially to reach TWD222.5b.

儘管供應鏈庫存調整帶來了適度影響，但我們的收入環比增長 6.4%，達到 TWD222.5b。

This was mainly due to the strong demand for our 20-nanometer technology.

這主要是由於對我們的 20 納米技術的強勁需求。

On the profitability side, gross margin was 49.7%, down 0.8 percentage point from third quarter.

盈利能力方面，毛利率為49.7%，較第三季度下降0.8個百分點。

This was attributed to 20-nanometer margin dilution and the lower capacity utilization, while cost improvements and favorable foreign exchange rate offset some of the decline.

這歸因於 20 納米的利潤稀釋和產能利用率降低，而成本改善和有利的匯率抵消了部分下降。

Operating margin was 39.6%, also down 0.6 -- 0.8 percentage point from the third quarter.

營業利潤率為39.6%，也比第三季度下降0.6-0.8個百分點。

Overall, our fourth-quarter EPS was TWD3.08, increased 4.8% sequentially and 78.5% year over year.

總體而言，我們的第四季度每股收益為 3.08 新台幣，環比增長 4.8%，同比增長 78.5%。

Let's take a look at revenue by application.

讓我們看一下按應用劃分的收入。

During the fourth quarter, the strong 20-nanometer ramp was mainly driven by communication-related applications.

在第四季度，20 納米的強勁增長主要由通信相關應用推動。

As a result, communication grew 18% sequentially and the revenue contribution increased from 59% in the third quarter to 65% in the fourth quarter.

結果，通信環比增長 18%，收入貢獻從第三季度的 59% 增加到第四季度的 65%。

As for other applications, computer grew 7%, while consumer and industrial declined 21% and 11% respectively.

至於其他應用，計算機增長 7%，而消費和工業分別下降 21% 和 11%。

On a full-year basis, communication increased 39% and represented 59% of our revenue.

在全年的基礎上，通信增長了 39%，占我們收入的 59%。

The major contributing segments included baseband, application processors, image processors and display drivers.

主要貢獻部分包括基帶、應用處理器、圖像處理器和顯示驅動器。

Another fast-growing application in 2014 was industrial and standard, which grew 30% year over year.

2014 年另一個快速增長的應用是工業和標準應用，同比增長 30%。

The growth was mainly driven by increasing usage of power management ICs, near-field communications and audio codec within the mobile devices.

增長主要是由於移動設備中電源管理 IC、近場通信和音頻編解碼器的使用增加。

By technology, 20-nanometer revenue contribution started with a very small number in the second quarter, jumped to 9% in the third quarter and reached 21% in the fourth quarter.

從技術上看，20 納米的收入貢獻從第二季度開始很小，第三季度躍升至 9%，第四季度達到 21%。

Such unprecedented ramp cannot be achieved without seamless teamwork with our customer, the R&D and operational people in TSMC.

如果沒有與我們的客戶、台積電的研發和運營人員的無縫團隊合作，就無法實現這種前所未有的增長。

On a full-year basis, 20 nanometer accounted for about 9% of our full-year wafer revenue.

按全年計算，20 納米約占我們全年晶圓收入的 9%。

Looking forward, we are confident that 20 nanometer will continue its momentum to contribute 20% of the revenue for the whole year 2015.

展望未來，我們有信心20納米將繼續保持其勢頭，為2015年全年貢獻20%的收入。

Meanwhile, customer demand for our 28-nanometer wafers remained strong.

同時，客戶對我們 28 納米晶圓的需求依然強勁。

Accordingly, these two advanced technologies, 20 nanometer plus 28 nanometer, represented 51% of our fourth-quarter total wafer revenue, a big increase from 43% in the third quarter.

因此，20 納米加 28 納米這兩種先進技術占我們第四季度晶圓總收入的 51%，比第三季度的 43% 有了很大的增長。

Now let me move on to the balance sheet.

現在讓我繼續討論資產負債表。

On the asset side, cash and marketable securities increased TWD147b to reach TWD437b at the end of the fourth quarter, mainly due to higher free cash flow generated from the fourth quarter and the receipt of a TWD30b guarantee deposit.

在資產方面，現金和有價證券在第四季度末增加了TWD147b，達到TWD437b，主要是由於第四季度產生的自由現金流增加以及收到了TWD30b的保證金。

Total liabilities increased by TWD56b, mainly due to increase in guarantee deposit, increase in tax payable and employee profit sharing.

總負債增加TWD56b，主要是保證金增加、應繳稅款增加及員工分紅增加所致。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days was 47 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數為47天。

Days of inventory increased by 2 days to 58 days, reflecting longer production cycle time for leading nodes.

庫存天數增加 2 天至 58 天，反映出領先節點的生產週期更長。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD153b cash from operations and invested TWD52b in capital expenditure.

在第四季度，我們從運營中產生了大約 TWD153b 的現金，並將 TWD52b 投資於資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD101b in this quarter.

因此，我們在本季度產生了 TWD101b 的自由現金流。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD132b to reach TWD358b at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額在本季度末增加了 TWD132b 至 TWD358b。

In US dollar terms, our fourth-quarter capital expenditure was $1.7b.

以美元計算，我們第四季度的資本支出為 $1.7b。

This adds to the total of $9.5b of capital expenditure for 2014.

這增加了 2014 年總資本支出 9.5b 美元。

Now I would like to give you a recap of our total performance in 2014.

現在我想給大家回顧一下我們在 2014 年的總體表現。

TSMC set a record in terms of revenue and earnings in 2014.

台積電在 2014 年創造了收入和收益的記錄。

Our revenue grew 27.8% year over year to reach TWD763b or $25b in US dollar terms.

我們的收入同比增長 27.8%，以美元計算達到 TWD763b 或 $25b。

On profitability, although the rising depreciation and fast ramp of 20 nanometer has indeed put pressure on our margins, our gross margin actually improved 2.4 percentage points to reach 49.5%.

在盈利能力方面，雖然20納米的不斷貶值和快速增長確實給我們的利潤率帶來壓力，但我們的毛利率實際上提高了2.4個百分點，達到49.5%。

This is because the capacity we invested were fully utilized.

這是因為我們投入的產能得到了充分利用。

And we continued the productivity and cost improvement and, to a lesser degree, a favorable foreign exchange rate environment.

我們繼續提高生產力和成本，並在較小程度上保持有利的匯率環境。

Our operating margin increased 3.7 percentage points to reach 38.8%.

我們的營業利潤率提高了 3.7 個百分點，達到 38.8%。

This demonstrated our ability to drive higher operating efficiency.

這證明了我們提高運營效率的能力。

The operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased from 12% in 2013 to 10.6% in 2014.

營業費用佔收入的百分比從 2013 年的 12% 下降到 2014 年的 10.6%。

As a result, our full-year earnings per share increased by 40% to reach the historical high level of TWD10.18 per share.

因此，我們全年每股收益增長 40%，達到每股新台幣 10.18 元的歷史高位。

On cash flow, we spent TWD289b in capital expenditure, which is about the same level as 2013.

在現金流方面，我們在資本支出上花費了 TWD289b，與 2013 年大致相同。

Meanwhile, our operating cash flow increased 21% to reach TWD422b.

同時，我們的營運現金流增加 21% 至 TWD422b。

Accordingly our free cash flow more than doubled in 2014.

因此，我們的自由現金流在 2014 年翻了一番多。

Overall, our ROE increased by 3.9 percentage point from last year to reach 27.9% in 2014.

總體而言，2014 年我們的 ROE 比去年上升 3.9 個百分點，達到 27.9%。

We exceeded our long-term financial goal of equal or bigger than 20%.

我們超過了等於或大於 20% 的長期財務目標。

I have finished my report on the financial part.

我已經完成了財務部分的報告。

Now let me turn to the first-quarter outlook.

現在讓我談談第一季度的展望。

We expect a slightly weaker demand in the first quarter due to seasonality.

由於季節性因素，我們預計第一季度的需求會略有減弱。

However, we also anticipate that the more favorable foreign exchange rate will moderate the seasonal weakness.

然而，我們也預計更有利的匯率將緩和季節性疲軟。

Based on current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD31.80, we expect our first-quarter revenue to be between TWD221b and TWD224b, representing a flattish quarter.

根據目前的業務預期和TWD31.80的預測匯率，我們預計我們第一季度的收入將在TWD221b和TWD224b之間，代表一個持平的季度。

In terms of margins, we expect the first-quarter gross margin to be between 48.5% and 50.5%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第一季度毛利率在 48.5% 至 50.5% 之間。

And we expect operating margin to be between 38.5% and 40.5%.

我們預計營業利潤率將在 38.5% 至 40.5% 之間。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Now our executives will deliver the key messages.

現在，我們的高管將傳遞關鍵信息。

The messages will be offered by our CFO as well as by the two Presidents and Co-CEOs.

這些信息將由我們的首席財務官以及兩位總裁和聯合首席執行官提供。

We will start with Lora.

我們將從勞拉開始。

I will make a few comments.

我將發表一些評論。

I will start with the capital expenditure for this year.

我將從今年的資本支出開始。

As we continue to expand our business in advanced technologies, we estimate our 2015 capital expenditure to be between $11.5b to $12b, which is about a 20% to 25% year-over-year increase.

隨著我們繼續擴展我們在先進技術方面的業務，我們估計 2015 年的資本支出將在 $11.5b 至 $12b 之間，同比增長約 20% 至 25%。

In addition to the investments for 16-nanometer capacity, we also spend for 10-nanometer tools and facilities to be ready for customer product tape-out by end of this year.

除了對 16 納米產能的投資外，我們還投資了 10 納米工具和設施，以便在今年年底前為客戶產品流片做好準備。

More than 80% of the planned CapEx is budgeted for advanced technologies, while 8-inch capacity, tools for specialty technologies and back-end capacity investment constitute the rest of the 20% of 2015 budget.

超過 80% 的計劃資本支出預算用於先進技術，而 8 英寸產能、專業技術工具和後端產能投資構成了 2015 年預算的其餘 20%。

I'd also like to make some comments on the solid-state lighting selling.

我還想對固態照明的銷售發表一些評論。

As you know, last Friday, January 9, upon TSMC's Board of Directors' approval, we have signed a contract with Epistar to sell TSMC's entire holding shares, which is 94%, of TSMC Solid-State Lighting to Epistar and we will exit the LED industry.

如您所知，上週五，1月9日，經台積電董事會批准，我們與晶電簽訂合同，將台積電所持台積電固態照明94%的股份全部出售給晶元，我們將退出台積電。 LED產業。

Despite several years of dedication and hard work, as a late entrant to the LED industry, TSMC Solid-State Lighting faced difficulties overcoming patent obstacles and sales channels.

台積電固態照明雖然經過數年的潛心和努力，但作為 LED 行業的後進者，仍面臨克服專利障礙和銷售渠道的困難。

Not seeing how the company will be able to reach profitability due to the oversupply exacerbated by massive expansions of LED companies worldwide, we have decided to transfer the ownership to Epistar, which is the world's largest manufacturer of LED epitaxial wafers and dies.

由於全球 LED 公司的大規模擴張加劇了供過於求，我們看不到該公司將如何實現盈利，我們決定將所有權轉讓給全球最大的 LED 外延片和芯片製造商晶元光電。

The share transfer is valued at TWD1.46 per share, with the total proceeds of TWD825m to TSMC.

股份轉讓價值為每股新台幣 1.46 元，總收益為台積電 8.25 億新台幣。

We have taken TWD740m in impairment loss in the fourth quarter last year, with a minimal impact of EPS by about TWD0.03.

去年第四季度，我們已計入 7.4 億新台幣的減值損失，每股收益的影響微乎其微，約為 0.03 新台幣。

The most important part of this deal is that no Solid-State Lighting employee loses his job.

這筆交易最重要的部分是，沒有任何 Solid-State Lighting 員工失業。

Everybody has a job.

每個人都有一份工作。

My last comment is about the ASML stock sale.

我的最後一條評論是關於 ASML 股票銷售。

As you know, in August 2012 we acquired about 21m shares of ASML under its customer co-investment program.

如您所知，2012 年 8 月，我們根據其客戶共同投資計劃收購了大約 2100 萬股 ASML 股票。

The purchase price was EUR39.91 per share for a total of EUR838m.

收購價格為每股 39.91 歐元，總計 8.38 億歐元。

There was a lock-up period of 2.5 years.

鎖定期為 2.5 年。

In the last two years, TSMC has entered several hedging contracts that fully covered our position, with an average hedge price of EUR62.59 per share, resulting in a lock-in profit of EUR483.5m.

在過去的兩年裡，台積電簽訂了幾份完全覆蓋我們頭寸的對沖合約，平均對沖價格為每股 62.59 歐元，鎖定利潤為 4.835 億歐元。

As the lock-up period is to be expired in April this year, we will be able to book a total profit of about TWD21b in 2015.

由於鎖定期將於今年 4 月到期，我們將能夠在 2015 年實現總利潤約 TWD21b。

This one-time non-op gain is expected to increase our EPS by TWD0.61 in second quarter and TWD0.13 in third quarter, and for the full year will be about TWD0.75.

預計這一一次性非運營收益將在第二季度將我們的每股收益增加 0.61 新台幣，在第三季度增加 0.13 新台幣，全年約為 0.75 新台幣。

That concludes my remark.

我的發言到此結束。

Let me turn the podium to C.C. -- to Mark.

讓我把講台轉到 C.C. ——給馬克。

Okay.

好的。

I will follow to give you key messages on the near-term demand.

接下來，我將向您提供有關近期需求的關鍵信息。

We just -- we have just concluded a strong 2014, with a 27.8% revenue growth.

我們剛剛——我們剛剛結束了強勁的 2014 年，收入增長了 27.8%。

In particular, the strong demand of our 20 SoC overcome the normal inventory adjustment pattern and enable a 6.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in the fourth quarter 2014.

尤其是我們 20 SoC 的強勁需求克服了正常的庫存調整模式，並在 2014 年第四季度實現了 6.4% 的季度環比增長。

The fabless company exited 2014, based on our estimates, with the days of inventory 2 days below seasonal.

根據我們的估計，這家無晶圓廠公司在 2014 年退出時，庫存天數比季節性低 2 天。

That is from a 4 days above in the third quarter.

那是第三季度的4天以上。

Now we see such inventory adjustment should come to a close.

現在我們看到這樣的庫存調整應該接近尾聲了。

We estimate the days of inventory at the end of the first quarter 2015 should be 1 day below seasonal level.

我們估計 2015 年第一季度末的庫存天數應該比季節性水平低 1 天。

So we see our near-term demand is quite healthy.

因此，我們看到我們的近期需求相當健康。

Since our fourth quarter last year set a high base, we guide a good quarter for the first quarter 2015, with substantially flat from fourth quarter 2014, and clearly better than our seasonal again.

由於我們去年第四季度的基數很高，我們為 2015 年第一季度指引了一個良好的季度，與 2014 年第四季度基本持平，並且明顯好於我們的季節性。

Looking forward to 2015, it should be another upbeat year.

展望2015年，應該是又一個樂觀的一年。

We forecast the semiconductor industry revenue growth to be 5%.

我們預測半導體行業收入增長為 5%。

The foundry revenue growth is 12%.

代工收入增長12%。

For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth by several percentage points in 2015.

對於台積電，我們有信心在 2015 年的表現能超過代工收入增長幾個百分點。

Now I'll give you a few words on 10-nanometer development update.

現在，我將就 10 納米開發更新向您介紹幾句。

Our 10-nanometer technology development is progressing and our qualification schedule at the end of 2015, end of this year, remains the same.

我們的 10 納米技術開發正在取得進展，我們在 2015 年底、今年年底的資格認證時間表保持不變。

We are now working with customers for their product tape-outs.

我們現在正在與客戶合作進行產品流片。

We expect its volume production in 2017.

我們預計 2017 年將實現量產。

On the new technology development in TSMC, I'll begin with beyond 10 nanometer I just talked about.

關於台積電的新技術發展，我先從剛才講的10納米以上說起。

We are now working on our future-generation platform technology development, with separate dedicated R&D development teams.

我們現在正致力於我們的下一代平台技術開發，擁有獨立的專門研發團隊。

These technologies will be offered in the 2017-to-2019 period.

這些技術將在 2017 年至 2019 年期間提供。

We are committed to push forward our technology envelope along the silicon scaling path.

我們致力於沿著矽微縮路徑推進我們的技術範圍。

In addition to the silicon device scaling, we are also working on the system scaling through advanced packaging to increase system bandwidth, to decrease power consumption and device form factors.

除了矽器件縮放之外，我們還致力於通過先進封裝進行系統縮放，以增加系統帶寬、降低功耗和器件外形尺寸。

Our first-generation InFO technology has been qualified.

我們的第一代 InFO 技術已通過認證。

Currently we are qualifying customer InFO products with 16-nanometer technology.

目前，我們正在對採用 16 納米技術的客戶 InFO 產品進行認證。

And it will be ready for volume ramp next year, 2016.

明年，2016 年，它將為量產做好準備。

We are now working on our second-generation InFO technology to supplement the silicon scaling of 10-nanometer generation.

我們現在正在研究我們的第二代 InFO 技術，以補充 10 納米代的矽縮放。

On the other side, in addition to the recently announced 55ULP ultra-low power technology, 40ULP, 28ULP technologies for ultra-low power application, such as wearable and IoT, we are also working on 16ULP technology development.

另一方面，除了最近公佈的55ULP超低功耗技術、40ULP、28ULP技術用於可穿戴、物聯網等超低功耗應用外，我們也在致力於16ULP技術的開發。

This 16ULP design kit will be available in June this year.

這款 16ULP 設計套件將於今年 6 月上市。

It will be just suitable for both high-performance and ultra-low power or ultra-low voltage, less than 0.6-volt applications.

它只適用於高性能和超低功率或超低電壓，低於 0.6 伏的應用。

Now I'll turn the microphone to C.C.

現在我將麥克風轉到 C.C.

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

I'll update you on 28, 20, 16-nanometer status and the InFO business.

我將向您介紹 28、20、16 納米的狀態和 InFO 業務。

First on 28 nanometer.

首先是 28 納米。

Since year 2011, we started to ramp up 28-nanometer production.

自 2011 年以來，我們開始增加 28 納米的生產。

Up to now we have enjoyed a big success in terms of a good manufacturing result and, most importantly, the strong demand from our customers.

到目前為止，我們在良好的製造結果方面取得了巨大的成功，最重要的是，我們客戶的強勁需求。

This year we expect the success will continue.

今年，我們預計成功將繼續。

Let me give a little bit more detail, first on the demand side.

讓我先介紹一下需求方面的細節。

The demand continues to grow, which are driven by the strong growth of mid- and low-end 4G smartphones, as well as the technology migration from some second-wave segments, such as the radio frequency, hard disk drive, flash controller, connectivity and digital consumers.

需求持續增長，這得益於中低端 4G 智能手機的強勁增長，以及一些第二波領域的技術遷移，如射頻、硬盤驅動器、閃存控制器、連接性和數字消費者。

Second, on the technology improvement, we continue our effort to enhance 28-nanometer technology by improving the speed performance while reducing the power consumption.

其次，在技術改進上，我們繼續努力提升28納米技術，在降低功耗的同時提高速度性能。

28HPC, 28 ultra-low power technology are some examples.

28HPC、28超低功耗技術就是一些例子。

So to conclude the 28-nanometer status, we believe we can defend our segment share well because of excellent performance and performance/cost ratio and our superior defect density results.

因此，總結 28 納米的地位，我們相信我們可以很好地捍衛我們的細分市場份額，因為出色的性能和性能/成本比以及我們卓越的缺陷密度結果。

Let's talk about the 20 SoC business status.

再來說說20款SoC的商業現狀。

After successfully ramp up in high volume last year, we expect to grow 20-nanometer business more than double this year due to high-end mobile device demand, which were generated by our customers' very competitive products.

在去年成功實現大批量生產後，我們預計今年 20 納米業務將增長一倍以上，原因是高端移動設備需求是由我們客戶極具競爭力的產品產生的。

Our forecast of the 20-nanometer business, as Lora just pointed out, will contribute 20% of the total wafer revenue.

正如 Lora 剛剛指出的，我們對 20 納米業務的預測將貢獻 20% 的晶圓總收入。

That remains unchanged.

那保持不變。

Now on 16-nanometer ramp-up.

現在正處於 16 納米的加速階段。

We expect to have more than 50 product tape-outs this year on 16-nanometer.

我們預計今年將有超過 50 個 16 納米產品流片。

High-volume production will start in third quarter, with meaningful revenue contribution starting in fourth quarter this year.

大批量生產將在第三季度開始，有意義的收入貢獻將從今年第四季度開始。

In order to stress again what our Chairman already mentioned, that combining 20 nanometer and 16 nanometer we expect to enjoy overwhelming market segment share.

為了再次強調我們的主席已經提到的，結合 20 納米和 16 納米，我們預計將享有壓倒性的市場份額。

Last, I will update on the InFO business.

最後，我將更新 InFO 業務。

The traction on InFO is strong.

InFO 的吸引力很強。

We have engaged with many customers.

我們接觸過很多客戶。

And a few of these customers are expected to ramp up in second quarter next year.

預計其中一些客戶將在明年第二季度增加。

Right now we are building a small pilot line in a new site to prepare for high-volume production next year.

目前，我們正在一個新地點建設一條小型試驗線，為明年的大批量生產做準備。

Also we expect this InFO technology will contribute sizeable revenue in 2016.

此外，我們預計 InFO 技術將在 2016 年貢獻可觀的收入。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Okay.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制為兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your questions.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Conference Instructions).

（會議說明）。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

First we will invite Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

首先，我們將邀請美銀美林的 Dan Heyler。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon and congratulations on a fantastic 2014 and guidance.

下午好，祝賀 2014 年的精彩和指導。

I had two questions.

我有兩個問題。

First I wanted to talk a bit about the ASP situation.

首先，我想談談 ASP 的情況。

You did talk about blended ASP.

您確實談到了混合 ASP。

You did talk about growth in semis being 5% this year, foundry being 12% and TSMC growing several percentage points beyond that.

你確實談到今年半導體的增長為 5%，代工為 12%，台積電增長了幾個百分點。

Should we expect that your blended ASP should rise again this year and continue to rise in future years?

我們是否應該期望您的混合平均售價今年會再次上升並在未來幾年繼續上升？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Dan, the answer is yes.

丹，答案是肯定的。

We do expect the blended ASP will continue to grow in 2015.

我們確實預計混合平均售價將在 2015 年繼續增長。

In order of magnitude relative to last couple of years?

相對於過去幾年的數量級？

We expect that trend will continue to the year after next year as well.

我們預計這種趨勢也將持續到後年。

Okay.

好的。

Order of magnitude, he said.

數量級，他說。

In low single-digit range year over year.

同比處於低個位數範圍內。

In that range.

在那個範圍內。

And the specific drivers of that?

那具體的驅動因素是什麼？

I know you're going to say mix, but could we talk in a little bit more detail on the drivers of ASP improvement as my follow-up?

我知道你會說混合，但作為我的後續行動，我們能否更詳細地談談 ASP 改進的驅動因素？

I think it's just 20 will be bigger this year percentage-wise than last year.

我認為今年的百分比將比去年大 20 個。

And 16 will start, and 16 will be much bigger next year than this year, etc.

16個將開始，明年16個將比今年大得多，等等。

And 10.

和 10。

You know in the past several years our ASP has been increasing because the mix, the advanced technologies keep coming up.

您知道在過去幾年中，我們的 ASP 一直在增加，因為先進技術不斷湧現。

So that's the driving force.

所以這就是驅動力。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the second part, I guess as we look at your pie chart on your slide with communications and computer being amazingly only 9% of your revenue, and, say, 10 years ago that chart was much, much different, with computer being the biggest.

第二部分，我想當我們在幻燈片上查看您的餅圖時，通信和計算機僅佔您收入的 9%，而且，比如說，10 年前，該圖表非常非常不同，計算機是最大的.

As we look at computer opportunities going forward, I think to some extent there's maybe a sense of a little bit of disappointment in that we don't see ARM necessarily in PCs yet.

當我們展望未來的計算機機會時，我認為在某種程度上可能會有些失望，因為我們還不一定會在 PC 中看到 ARM。

We haven't really necessarily seen that ecosystem come through in the server business.

我們還沒有真正看到服務器業務中的生態系統。

And big data being such an important trend going forward, with compute growing about 15% per year, I'm wondering what TSMC is doing or what your view of that opportunity will be in the future as a potential growth driver.

大數據是一個重要的未來趨勢，計算每年增長約 15%，我想知道台積電正在做什麼，或者你認為未來這個機會作為潛在增長動力的看法是什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Server is one of them, Mark.

服務器就是其中之一，馬克。

Well there's IoT actually also, and just don't forget that mobile actually we think has a few more years to run yet.

嗯，實際上還有物聯網，只是不要忘記我們認為移動設備實際上還有幾年的運行時間。

Really the TSMC silicon content in the average phone is actually increasing, which is something that is not recognized by a lot of people, because everybody says that the weight, the gravity is shifting to the middle level, lower-level priced phones.

真的，普通手機中的台積電矽含量實際上是在增加的，這是很多人不認可的，因為大家都說重量、重心正在向中低端手機轉移。

But according to our data, and we have kept track of it for quite a long time, the average of TSMC silicon content in the average phone is actually increasing.

但是根據我們的數據，而且我們已經跟踪了很長時間，普通手機中台積電的平均矽含量實際上是在增加的。

So -- and look, we still look for over -- I think the number we have is that by 2019 there'll be 2b phones manufactured.

所以 - 看，我們仍然在尋找 - 我認為我們擁有的數字是到 2019 年將生產 2b 手機。

It is -- I think last year it was, what, 1.3b?

它是——我想去年是，什麼，1.3b？

I think, yes, 1.3b.

我認為，是的，1.3b。

1.3b to 2b.

1.3b 到 2b。

And, well, and the average TSMC silicon content per phone is increasing.

而且，每部手機的平均台積電矽含量正在增加。

And the number of phones is going up.

手機的數量正在增加。

So that's by no means a -- it's still there.

所以這絕不是 - 它仍然存在。

It's still a growth engine.

它仍然是一個增長引擎。

And then IoT, I think we talked about IoT before, and now we are certainly not oblivious to the server possibility.

然後是物聯網，我想我們之前談到了物聯網，現在我們當然不會忘記服務器的可能性。

So why don't I ask Mark to talk about the server and maybe C.C. will talk a little about the IoT.

所以我為什麼不讓馬克談談服務器，也許還有 C.C.將談談物聯網。

Okay, Dan.

好的，丹。

I'll just respond to you on the server part.

我只會在服務器部分回复你。

Chairman talked about the area we're mostly focused on, phone, today.

主席談到了我們今天最關注的領域，電話。

And that would drive -- give us growth momentum in the next several years.

這將推動 - 在未來幾年為我們提供增長動力。

On server, we work with the product innovators around the world.

在服務器上，我們與世界各地的產品創新者合作。

And such a field definitely we'll not lose in our radar screen and theirs.

這樣一個領域絕對不會輸給我們的雷達屏幕和他們的。

And TSMC has been, over the years, developed our technology to suit for high-power computing.

多年來，台積電一直在開發我們的技術以適應大功率計算。

And from 65, 40, 28 to 16 nanometer, we continuously improve our transistor performance.

從 65、40、28 到 16 納米，我們不斷改進我們的晶體管性能。

And today we believe our 16 FinFET Plus transistor performance probably is the top of -- is one of the top of the world.

而今天，我們相信我們的 16 FinFET Plus 晶體管性能可能是世界頂級的——也是世界頂級之一。

It's well suitable, well capable of doing the computing tasks.

它非常適合，能夠完成計算任務。

And actually before server, and there are several supercomputers around the world, in US and in Japan, already powered by our technology, doing the weather forecasting, whether the geo exploration applications today.

實際上，在服務器之前，全球有幾台超級計算機，在美國和日本，已經由我們的技術提供支持，進行天氣預報，無論是今天的地質勘探應用。

And on the server, on ARM in particular, we have very close partnership with ARM in recent years.

在服務器上，尤其是在 ARM 上，近年來我們與 ARM 有著非常密切的合作關係。

And ARM is a very innovative company.

ARM 是一家非常創新的公司。

They produce CPU core and new architecture every year.

他們每年都生產 CPU 內核和新架構。

And we reached our leading-edge technology very early with ARM and to design their leading-edge CPU cores.

我們很早就與 ARM 達成了我們的領先技術，並設計了他們領先的 CPU 內核。

And that will continue and several of our customers are taking advantage of that.

這將繼續下去，我們的一些客戶正在利用這一點。

Yes, in the past it's been getting into slower as expected.

是的，過去它一直如預期的那樣變慢。

That's because the software ecosystem is slower to come.

那是因為軟件生態系統來得比較慢。

And -- but actually a lot of the server companies, system company is continuing investing in this ecosystem.

而且——但實際上很多服務器公司、系統公司都在繼續投資這個生態系統。

Linux-based ecosystem is coming very strong too.

基於 Linux 的生態系統也正在變得非常強大。

So I think the trend will continue.

所以我認為這種趨勢會繼續下去。

And we will, with our customers, get into these segments in the next -- in the near future.

我們將與我們的客戶一起在下一個——在不久的將來進入這些細分市場。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Can you say a few words about IoT?

你能談談物聯網嗎？

Okay.

好的。

For the IoT, that would be a big topic right now in the whole industry.

對於物聯網，這將是目前整個行業的一個大話題。

All I want to say is that we are happy to share with you that, a long time ago, we already focused on our specialty technology, which are the CMOS image sensor, MEMs, embedded Flash, all those kind of things.

我想說的是，我們很高興與您分享，很久以前，我們已經專注於我們的專業技術，即 CMOS 圖像傳感器、MEMS、嵌入式閃存等等。

Today we add another new technology, ultra-low power, into it.

今天，我們在其中添加了另一項新技術，即超低功耗。

And that will be the basis for the IoT technology necessary in the future.

這將是未來物聯網技術的基礎。

We believe that when the time comes and IoT business becomes big, TSMC will be in a very good position to capture most of the business.

我們相信，當時機成熟，IoT 業務做大時，台積電將處於非常有利的位置，可以佔領大部分業務。

That's what I share with you.

這就是我與你分享的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Next we will invite Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

接下來我們將邀請瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The first question, actually I wanted to ask about the CapEx increase, where it's moving up this year.

第一個問題，實際上我想問一下今年資本支出的增長情況。

Could you talk about the allocation?

能談談分配嗎？

How much you plan for the 10 nanometer?

你對 10 納米的計劃是多少？

How much for the 16?

16個多少錢？

And then also if you still see growth out of 28 and the 8 inch, if there's plans to expand to 8 inch.

然後，如果您仍然看到 28 英寸和 8 英寸的增長，如果有計劃擴展到 8 英寸。

So if you could give more flavor on the CapEx.

因此，如果您可以在資本支出上提供更多風味。

Yes, Randy, in my remarks I was talking about 80% of the CapEx goes to leading-edge technology.

是的，蘭迪，在我的講話中，我談到了 80% 的資本支出用於前沿技術。

That actually covers a very big part of 16 FinFET capacity and also the 10 nanometer for the engineering line and R&D expenditure.

這實際上涵蓋了 16 FinFET 產能的很大一部分，以及工程線和研發支出的 10 納米。

But altogether leading-edge technology will be 80%.

但總共領先的技術將佔 80%。

We are also increasing our investment in the backend, also in 8 inch.

我們也在增加對後端的投資，同樣是 8 英寸。

These two things together will be about 10% and the rest are the smaller items.

這兩件事加起來大約是 10%，其餘的是較小的項目。

How big is the 10 nanometer?

10納米有多大？

We do not disclose specific numbers.

我們不透露具體數字。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry.

對不起。

Okay.

好的。

And the follow-up question on profitability.

以及關於盈利能力的後續問題。

If you could give a flavor on structural profitability for 2015 and some of the flavor for 20, how quick that may get to corporate margins, and for 16, because it's an extension, whether that could be near corporate margins as that comes up.

如果你能對 2015 年的結構性盈利能力和 20 年的一些情況給出一些看法，那麼這可能會以多快的速度達到公司利潤率，以及 16 年，因為它是一個擴展，這是否會接近公司利潤率。

And if you could give a comment on the inventory at current levels, if there's any -- if that will stay at these higher levels from the WIP you've been building or if that may come back down to a different level.

如果您可以對當前水平的庫存發表評論，如果有的話 - 如果您正在構建的 WIP 將保持在這些更高的水平，或者是否可能會回到不同的水平。

Okay.

好的。

Randy, you have multiple questions.

蘭迪，你有多個問題。

I recall you asked for the structural profitability.

我記得你問過結構性盈利能力。

That's you first question, right?

這是你的第一個問題，對吧？

From what we can see now, we are quite confident we can maintain equal or slightly better structural profitability, standard gross margin versus 2014.

從我們現在可以看到的情況來看，我們非常有信心與 2014 年相比，我們可以保持同等或略高的結構盈利能力，即標準毛利率。

For the 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer ramping, how would that affect corporate margin?

對於 20 納米和 16 納米的爬坡，這將如何影響企業利潤率？

I have said in last July it usually takes seven or eight quarters for any new leading-edge technology to get close to the corporate average.

我在去年 7 月曾說過，任何新的前沿技術通常需要七到八個季度才能接近企業平均水平。

So for 20 nanometer, it will take eight quarters.

因此，對於 20 納米，將需要 8 個季度。

So we believe -- so 20 nanometer start to sell in second quarter 2014, and we expect by first quarter 2016, that's eight quarters, it will be at corporate average level.

所以我們相信 - 所以 20 納米在 2014 年第二季度開始銷售，我們預計到 2016 年第一季度，也就是八個季度，它將處於公司平均水平。

For 16, we are going to mass produce this product.

對於 16，我們將批量生產該產品。

It will follow the similar trend.

它將遵循類似的趨勢。

16 nanometer will be based on the feature of 20 nanometer, so the margin will start to be higher.

16 納米將基於 20 納米的特性，因此裕度將開始更高。

But it will also follow the similar trend.

但它也將遵循類似的趨勢。

It takes seven quarters to reach to corporate average.

達到企業平均水平需要七個季度。

So say we plan to mass produce 16 FinFET in third quarter 2015, so by first quarter 2017 you will get close to corporate average.

假設我們計劃在 2015 年第三季度量產 16 個 FinFET，那麼到 2017 年第一季度你將接近企業平均水平。

So there will -- before that there will be still small dilutions.

所以會有 - 在此之前仍然會有小幅稀釋。

For this year, the dilution will be 2 to 3 percentage points.

今年，稀釋度為 2 至 3 個百分點。

And the last year, the second half will be 3 to 4 percentage points and very low in 2016.

而去年下半年將是3到4個百分點，2016年非常低。

Okay.

好的。

And then is there -- just the one follow-up on inventory.

然後就在那裡 - 只是庫存的一個後續行動。

Is there any impact from the inventory at these current higher levels?

當前較高水平的庫存是否有任何影響？

Do you expect, because of the longer cycle time, inventory would stay at these inventory day levels or that would come back down to the historical levels or closer to history?

您是否預計，由於週期時間較長，庫存將保持在這些庫存日水平，或者會回落到歷史水平或更接近歷史水平？

I think Mark has talked about the inventory level.

我認為馬克已經談到了庫存水平。

We have went through the inventory depletion period.

我們已經經歷了庫存消耗期。

Now we see inventory was four days above seasonal in third quarter last year.

現在我們看到去年第三季度的庫存比季節性高四天。

For TSMC's own inventory?

為了台積電自己的庫存？

Yes, TSMC's inventory level.

是的，台積電的庫存水平。

TSMC, you're talking about 50 days I was talking about.

台積電，你說的是我說的 50 天。

Okay.

好的。

Normally in the past we have seen around 45 to 50 days, maybe 45 being average.

通常在過去我們看到大約 45 到 50 天，平均可能是 45 天。

This increase of inventory is mainly because of 20-nanometer ramp.

庫存的增加主要是因為 20 納米坡道。

It has much longer cycle time, both in the wafer fab, also in the backend.

它在晶圓廠和後端都有更長的周期時間。

So that's the main reason our inventory is going up.

所以這是我們庫存增加的主要原因。

So it will not continue to go up further.

所以它不會繼續進一步上漲。

It will probably stay at the similar level, but it will not go down either.

它可能會保持在相似的水平，但也不會下降。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next we invite Citibank's Roland Shu.

接下來我們請來花旗銀行的Roland Shu。

Hi.

你好。

Good afternoon, Chairman, Mark, C.C. and Lora.

下午好，主席，馬克，C.C.和勞拉。

The first question I would like to learn from Chairman, your view about the effective capacity of 14-nanometer.

第一個問題想請教主席，您對14納米有效容量的看法。

Since I think back to 40-nanometer days, you precisely foreseen the effective 40-nanometer definitely would be much smaller, like the capacity -- 40-nanometer capacity would be much smaller than the build -- building 40-nanometer capacity.

因為我回想起 40 納米的日子，你準確地預見到有效的 40 納米肯定會小得多，就像容量一樣——40 納米的容量將比構建的 40 納米的容量小得多。

So what's your view for 14 nanometer this time?

那麼這次你對 14 納米有什麼看法呢？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

So, Roland, your question is with respect to effective capacity, where Chairman has defined the capacity to be effective when you have a useful technology.

所以，羅蘭，你的問題是關於有效能力的，主席已經定義了當你擁有有用的技術時有效的能力。

So your question is wanting to hear from Chairman about the situation of 14/16 nanometer, what kind of effective capacity scenario we are facing today.

所以你的問題是想听聽主席關於14/16納米的情況，我們今天面臨什麼樣的有效產能情景。

And I defined effective capacity as what?

我將有效容量定義為什麼？

A capacity with a useful technology.

具有有用技術的能力。

Yes.

是的。

I think that back to 40-nanometer days, Chairman guided as the effective 40-nanometer capacity, that is it's going to be much smaller than the overall build capacity.

我認為回到 40 納米時代，主席指導有效的 40 納米容量，即它將比整體構建容量小得多。

So I just want to really learn from you what's your view for 14-nanometer effective capacity these days.

因此，我只想真正向您了解您對這些天的 14 納米有效容量的看法。

Yes.

是的。

That is capacity that is going to be used, right?

那就是將要使用的容量，對嗎？

Used also.

也用過。

That is going to make a profit for us, right?

這將為我們帶來利潤，對吧？

We are just in the middle of building up our 16-nanometer effective capacity strongly.

我們正在大力建立我們的 16 納米有效容量。

I think Roland's question, you probably are asking us about --

我想羅蘭的問題，你可能是在問我們——

About overall, yes.

總的來說，是的。

Overall industry, whether or not other players are building effective capacity as well.

整個行業，無論其他參與者是否也在建設有效的能力。

Well I think I have pointed out many times in the past that some companies, some foundries build capacity on speculation, just like builders build houses or condos on speculation.

好吧，我想我過去曾多次指出，一些公司，一些鑄造廠在投機上建立能力，就像建築商在投機上建造房屋或公寓一樣。

They haven't sold them yet.

他們還沒有賣掉它們。

Their speculation is that after they build the apartments or houses, they will be sold.

他們的猜測是，在他們建造完公寓或房屋後，它們將被出售。

But that doesn't always happen, of course.

但當然，這並不總是發生。

Now we, however, are different.

然而，現在我們不同了。

We build capacity when we know that it's already sold.

當我們知道它已經售出時，我們就會建立產能。

Maybe I ask in other way.

也許我換個方式問。

So compared to 40-nanometer days, and now we're looking for the 14 capacity, do you think the effective capacity for 14-nanometer industry will be bigger or smaller than the effective capacity when you see at the 40-nanometer days?

那麼和40納米天相比，現在我們正在尋找14納米的產能，你認為14納米產業的有效產能會比你看到的40納米天的有效產能更大還是更小？

Can you understand the question?

你能理解這個問題嗎？

Sort of.

有點。

40.

40.

He's talking about 40.

他說的是40歲。

Well tell me.

好吧告訴我。

Tell me.

告訴我。

Right.

正確的。

He's asking Chairman to compare 14 nanometer today versus 40 nanometer a few years ago in terms of the capacity.

他要求主席在容量方面比較今天的 14 納米和幾年前的 40 納米。

What today?

今天是什麼？

14/16.

14/16。

We should use 16.

我們應該使用 16。

16 nanometer versus 40 nanometer a few years ago.

16 納米與幾年前的 40 納米。

In what respect?

在什麼方面？

Whether the industry has oversupply in capacity.

行業是否存在產能過剩。

Whether the oversupply capacity is effective.

供過於求的產能是否有效。

I don't know yet because, from the data we have now, I don't think -- you're talking about 14 right?

我還不知道，因為從我們現在擁有的數據來看，我不認為 - 你說的是 14 對吧？

14, right?

14，對吧？

From the data we have now, I don't think that they're building too much 14 capacity.

從我們現在擁有的數據來看，我認為他們沒有建立太多的 14 容量。

Am I correct?

我對麼？

No?

不？

Everybody together.

大家一起。

I don't think that everybody together is building -- from the data we have now, I don't think they are building too much capacity yet.

我不認為每個人都在共同建設——從我們現在擁有的數據來看，我認為他們還沒有建設太多的能力。

But you want me to compare with 40.

但是你要我和40比較。

40, yes, I think at about the same point in time in the 40-nanometer cycle, we -- well, my memory is a little hazy now.

40，是的，我認為在 40 納米週期的同一時間點，我們——嗯，我的記憶現在有點模糊了。

That was five, six years ago.

那是五六年前的事了。

Too long ago.

太久了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I think my second question is most investors are very happy to hear, Chairman, you have ranked return of shareholder as the top priority when you are running TSMC.

我想我的第二個問題是大多數投資者都很高興聽到，主席，您在經營台積電時將股東回報列為首要任務。

But I think some of the customers probably are very upset to hear about the TSMC put the customer at much lower priority when you are running your business.

但我認為有些客戶聽到台積電在您經營業務時將客戶放在低得多的優先級時可能會感到非常不安。

No.

不。

Customers have a very high priority in our Company.

客戶在我們公司有很高的優先級。

In fact very, very high.

事實上非常非常高。

As I think we have said many times that we really have three major strengths.

我想我們已經說過很多次了，我們確實擁有三大優勢。

One is technology.

一是技術。

Second is manufacturing.

二是製造業。

And third is customers' trust.

第三是客戶的信任。

And this has been our model ever since we started the Company almost 30 years ago.

自從我們近 30 年前創辦公司以來，這一直是我們的模式。

So no.

所以不行。

Now if you are talking about we do, of course, place shareholders also in a very high priority, very high position.

現在，如果您在談論我們，當然，我們也將股東置於非常高的優先級，非常高的位置。

But I think that's quite common.

但我認為這很常見。

And I think that's the way it should be.

我認為這就是應該的方式。

But obviously you need very good customers.

但顯然你需要非常好的客戶。

You need customers that trust us.

您需要信任我們的客戶。

We need customers that trust us, that work with us in order to satisfy our shareholders.

我們需要信任我們、與我們合作的客戶，以使我們的股東滿意。

It's part of the same equation.

它是同一個等式的一部分。

Yes.

是的。

I think maybe I should rephrase my question again.

我想也許我應該重新提出我的問題。

I think in the past TSMC, because your technology --.

我想過去台積電，因為你的技術——。

Why do you rephrase your question all the time?

為什麼你總是重述你的問題？

Okay.

好的。

Go ahead.

前進。

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

My question is simple.

我的問題很簡單。

It's just for the profitability and also customer relationship.

這只是為了盈利能力和客戶關係。

I think most of that, I think this is conflict.

我認為大部分，我認為這是衝突。

I think in the past you do very good profitability for TSMC.

我認為過去你為台積電做了很好的盈利。

Probably some of the customers actually were not happy.

可能有些客戶實際上並不高興。

So going forward, how TSMC to balance its profitability and the customer relationship?

那麼展望未來，台積電如何平衡其盈利能力和客戶關係？

So Roland, your point is that because we have very high profitability, therefore our customers are unhappy.

所以羅蘭，你的意思是，因為我們有很高的盈利能力，所以我們的客戶不滿意。

That is not the right logic.

這不是正確的邏輯。

Well, we think we earn our profit.

好吧，我們認為我們賺取了利潤。

We think everyone has to earn his profit.

我們認為每個人都必須賺取利潤。

We think our customer has to earn his profit too.

我們認為我們的客戶也必須賺取利潤。

And I think they do think, our customers do think they earn their profit just as we think we earn our profit.

我認為他們確實認為，我們的客戶確實認為他們賺取利潤，就像我們認為我們賺取利潤一樣。

But there are always people who think that you are making too much profit.

但是總有人認為你賺的太多了。

Some of our customers' customers think that our customers are making too much profit too.

我們的一些客戶的客戶認為我們的客戶也賺了太多的利潤。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

But we think we earn our profit.

但我們認為我們賺取了利潤。

And if any customer is unhappy with us, he sees me.

如果任何客戶對我們不滿意，他會看到我。

He comes to see me.

他來看我。

He comes to see us.

他來看我們。

Okay?

好的？

And we try to correct the situation.

我們試圖糾正這種情況。

We try to improve the situation.

我們試圖改善這種情況。

Okay.

好的。

Good.

好的。

Next we invite Goldman Sachs' Donald Lu.

接下來我們邀請高盛的Donald Lu。

Congratulations on very good 2014 results and also very strong 2015 CapEx guidance.

祝賀 2014 年業績非常好，2015 年資本支出指引也非常強勁。

I think this year maybe TSMC will top the world in logic.

我認為今年台積電可能會在邏輯上領先世界。

Really?

真的嗎？

Maybe.

也許。

Okay.

好的。

So now I have two questions.

所以現在我有兩個問題。

One is, Chairman, about six months ago you gave us a comment on your estimate on TSMC's market share in FinFET in 2015, 2016, 2017.

一個是，主席，大約六個月前，您對我們在 2015 年、2016 年、2017 年對台積電在 FinFET 市場份額的估計發表了評論。

So has that changed?

那麼情況發生了變化嗎？

Second question is, Lora, you commented that someone paid you TWD30b capacity guarantee.

第二個問題是，Lora，您評論說有人向您支付了 TWD30b 容量保證。

Is this something new?

這是新事物嗎？

I don't remember that TSMC takes --.

我不記得台積電需要--。

What did you say?

你說什麼？

I didn't hear the last one.

最後一句沒聽懂

The second question is about capacity guarantee of TWD30b.

第二個問題是關於TWD30b的容量保證。

Yes, customer deposit.

是的，客戶存款。

Deposit.

訂金。

Customer deposit.

客戶押金。

It was a guarantee deposit.

這是保證金。

You're asking this is something new?

你問這是什麼新鮮事？

Yes.

是的。

Actually, I think more than 10 years ago, maybe 15 years ago, TSMC have done this with several customers.

實際上，我認為十多年前，也許是 15 年前，台積電已經和幾個客戶做過這件事。

So it's not something really new.

所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。

15 years ago.

15年前。

Late 1990s.

1990 年代後期。

Forgive me.

對不起。

That wasn't very --.

那不是很——。

But I think that -- but after that, I guess we didn't have them.

但我認為——但在那之後，我想我們就沒有它們了。

Yes.

是的。

I thought it was pretty good in the late 1990s, so we started again.

我認為 1990 年代後期還不錯，所以我們重新開始。

Okay.

好的。

The customer likes it too.

客戶也很喜歡。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe you can explain a little bit like what it guarantees, TSMC's obligation on that and how long it will be looking into.

所以也許你可以解釋一下它保證什麼，台積電對此的義務以及它將研究多長時間。

Are we still answering the second question or are we -- I want to answer the first question.

我們是否仍在回答第二個問題，或者我們——我想回答第一個問題。

Donald's question was I said -- actually I looked up my statement at that time, July 16 of last year.

唐納德的問題是我說的——實際上我在去年 7 月 16 日當時查閱了我的聲明。

I said on the subject of 16 and 20, 16-nanometer and 20-nanometer technology, I said that -- I actually made three statements.

我說過關於 16 和 20、16 納米和 20 納米技術的主題，我說過 -- 我實際上做了三個陳述。

The first statement was that because we started 16 a little late, our market share in 2015, our 16-nanometer market share in 2015 will be smaller than our major largest competitor's.

第一個說法是，因為我們開始 16 有點晚，我們在 2015 年的市場份額，我們在 2015 年的 16 納米市場份額將小於我們主要最大競爭對手的市場份額。

The second statement I made was that we started 16 late because we wanted to do 20.

我做的第二個陳述是我們遲到了 16 點，因為我們想做 20 點。

And so if you combine 20 and 16, our major competitor, who will be slightly ahead of us this year on the 16, he has very little 20.

因此，如果你將 20 和 16 結合起來，我們的主要競爭對手，今年將在 16 日略微領先我們，他只有很少的 20。

Almost no 20 at all.

幾乎沒有20。

And if we combine 20 and 16, our combined share in this year will be much higher than that competitor's.

如果我們將 20 和 16 合併，我們今年的合併份額將遠遠高於競爭對手。

The third statement I made is that in 2016 we will have much larger share in just 16 nanometer than that competitor.

我發表的第三個聲明是，在 2016 年，我們將在 16 納米技術上擁有比競爭對手更大的份額。

All right.

好的。

First I want to say that I, at this time, stand on those statements.

首先，我想說的是，此時此刻，我支持這些聲明。

In fact, I now will add a couple of statements.

事實上，我現在將添加一些聲明。

The statements I will add are -- that's fourth statement now.

我要添加的語句是-- 現在是第四個語句。

Okay?

好的？

When we have a larger share of just 16 alone in 2016, the 16 market will also be much larger than this year, 2015.

當我們在 2016 年僅擁有 16 個更大的份額時，16 個市場也將比今年，2015 年大得多。

So, yes, we're slightly behind.

所以，是的，我們稍微落後了。

We have a smaller market share in 2015 in a smaller market.

2015 年我們在較小的市場中佔有較小的市場份額。

Next year we will have a larger share, in fact much larger share, in a much larger market, 16.

明年我們將在更大的市場中擁有更大的份額，實際上更大的份額，16。

So -- and another statement I want to make is that I'm, at this point, very, very comfortable with all those statements that I have made on July 16 last year and the statements that I have added today.

所以-- 我想說的另一個聲明是，在這一點上，我對我去年7 月16 日所做的所有聲明以及我今天添加的所有聲明感到非常非常滿意。

I'm very comfortable.

我很舒服。

I don't know whether I answered your question or not, Donald.

我不知道我是否回答了你的問題，唐納德。

Yes.

是的。

How about 2017, if --?

2017 年怎麼樣，如果——？

What?

什麼？

2017.

2017 年。

2017.

2017 年。

What?

什麼？

Well, 2017, the share is going to continue.

那麼，2017年，份額將繼續。

We're not going to lose the leadership on 16 market share once we recapture that in 2016.

一旦我們在 2016 年重新奪回市場份額，我們就不會失去 16 個市場份額的領先地位。

It's going to continue 2017, 2018.

2017、2018年還會繼續。

And also both 20 and 16 are going to live longer than you might think now.

而且 20 歲和 16 歲的壽命都比你現在想像的要長。

Well 28, for that matter, will also live longer than you'd think.

28 歲，就此而言，也會比你想像的更長壽。

Okay.

好的。

Next we will invite Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

接下來我們將邀請德意志銀行的Michael Chou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Chairman, do you see 16-nanometer FinFET Plus PPA is better than tier-two foundries' 14-nanometer at this moment?

主席，您認為目前 16 納米 FinFET Plus PPA 是否優於二級代工廠的 14 納米？

Given that you mentioned you expect TSMC's 16-nanometer market share should be higher than your major competitor in 2016, but based --.

鑑於您提到您預計台積電的 16 納米市場份額在 2016 年應高於您的主要競爭對手，但基於--。

What?

什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Based on current R&D progress or any product design progress, do you think that your PPA of 16-nanometer FinFET Plus is better than your competitors' PPA 14 nanometer?

根據目前的研發進度或任何產品設計進度，您認為您的 16 納米 FinFET Plus 的 PPA 是否優於競爭對手的 PPA 14 納米？

PPK?

PPK?

PPA.

購電協議。

Power, performance.

功率，性能。

PPA.

購電協議。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

So Michael's question is if we look at the definition of the technology in terms of performance, power and area, is our 16 nanometer better than our competitors?

所以邁克爾的問題是，如果我們從性能、功率和麵積方面來看待技術的定義，我們的 16 納米是否比我們的競爭對手更好？

[Obviously], yes.

[顯然]，是的。

As a follow-up, do you think that your most customers will stay in your 16 nanometer rather than shift to tier-two foundries?

作為後續，您是否認為您的大多數客戶會留在您的 16 納米而不是轉移到二級代工廠？

For over the next 18 months, will stay in your 16-nanometer FinFET Plus rather than move to your competitors' 14 nanometer?

在接下來的 18 個月內，您會繼續使用您的 16 納米 FinFET Plus，而不是轉向競爭對手的 14 納米嗎？

You mean after we have ramped 16 FinFET Plus, will our customers shift to our competition's offer?

您的意思是，在我們增加 16 個 FinFET Plus 之後，我們的客戶會轉向我們競爭對手的報價嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I thought the question has been answered already.

好吧，我以為這個問題已經回答了。

Once we capture that larger share, we stay here for many years.

一旦我們獲得了更大的份額，我們就會在這里呆很多年。

Okay.

好的。

Let me put it another way.

讓我換一種說法。

Can we say your 16-nanometer market share in 2016 will be quite similar to your dominance in 28 nanometer, given that your 20 nanometer is the only provider?

鑑於您的 20 納米是唯一的供應商，我們能否說您在 2016 年的 16 納米市場份額將與您在 28 納米的主導地位非常相似？

So the apple-to-apple comparison should be 28 to 16 nanometer.

所以蘋果對蘋果的比較應該是 28 到 16 納米。

So market share in 16 nanometer in 2016, will that be the same as our market share at 28 nanometer, I would say, back in 2013, 2014?

那麼，2016 年 16 納米的市場份額，會與我們在 28 納米的市場份額相同，我想說，早在 2013 年、2014 年嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, no, I don't think so, because 28, of course we were virtually sole source.

嗯，不，我不這麼認為，因為 28，當然，我們實際上是唯一的來源。

And 16, we already know we're not.

16，我們已經知道我們不是。

There's at least one major competitor and then there's another one that's just eager to get in.

至少有一個主要競爭對手，然後還有另一個急於進入。

I don't mean that first competitor's accessory, I mean another one.

我不是指第一個競爭對手的配件，我指的是另一個。

Second question is regarding the InFO.

第二個問題是關於 InFO。

Do you expect the gross margin of InFO will have a negative impact to your overall gross margin 2016 or beyond, given that you mentioned it could be sizeable revenue in 2016?

你認為 InFO 的毛利率會對你 2016 年或以後的整體毛利率產生負面影響嗎，因為你提到它在 2016 年可能是可觀的收入？

So your question is whether or not InFO business in 2016 will impact our margins?

所以你的問題是，2016 年的 InFO 業務是否會影響我們的利潤率？

Yes.

是的。

Whether InFO will impact our margins.

InFO 是否會影響我們的利潤率。

No, probably not.

不，可能不是。

The back-end business actually is a lower margin, but the turnover is faster.

後端業務實際上是利潤率較低，但周轉速度較快。

So put two together, it's comparable.

所以把兩個放在一起，是可以比較的。

InFO will have lower margin than our wafers business, but it will actually have higher return on invested capital than our wafer business.

InFO 的利潤率將低於我們的晶圓業務，但實際上它的投資資本回報率將高於我們的晶圓業務。

Okay.

好的。

I think we really should go to the line and invite questions there.

我認為我們真的應該去排隊並在那裡提出問題。

Operator, could you please invite the first caller on the line?

接線員，您能邀請第一個來電者嗎？

Brett Simpson, Arete.

布雷特辛普森，阿雷特。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

My question is around 28 nanometer.

我的問題是大約 28 納米。

You're running a large capacity at 28 nanometer at the moment.

您目前正在運行 28 納米的大容量。

So can you share with us what your capacity plan is for 28?

那麼，您能否與我們分享一下您的 28 人容量計劃是什麼？

As you migrate more business to 20 nanometer and below over the next couple of years, do you intend to convert 28-nanometer capacity to lower nodes, or do you think you can keep the existing 28-nanometer capacity running full going forward.

隨著您在未來幾年內將更多業務遷移到 20 納米及以下，您是否打算將 28 納米容量轉換為更低的節點，或者您是否認為您可以保持現有的 28 納米容量繼續滿負荷運行。

All right.

好的。

Let me repeat Brett's question so that people here can hear it better.

讓我重複布雷特的問題，以便這裡的人們能更好地聽到它。

Brett's question is TSMC's 28-nanometer capacity is very large.

Brett 的問題是台積電的 28 納米容量非常大。

As our technology migrates to more advanced nodes, such as 20 and 16, in the next few years, what will be our plan on capacity of the 28 nanometer?

隨著我們的技術向更先進的節點遷移，例如 20 和 16，在未來幾年，我們對 28 納米的容量有何規劃？

Will we still have large demand to utilize those capacities or we need to do some changes?

我們是否仍然有很大的需求來利用這些能力，或者我們需要做一些改變？

Every -- in every generation we worry a lot about the conversion loss we will suffer when we convert the equipment of that -- the existing capacity of that generation to the capacity of the next generation.

每一代 - 在每一代中，我們都非常擔心當我們將那一代的設備轉換為下一代的現有容量時我們將遭受的轉換損失。

Now, so we do two things.

現在，我們做兩件事。

First, we try to minimize that conversion loss.

首先，我們盡量減少轉換損失。

And since we've been living with the problem for so long now, I think we're getting to be pretty good at it.

既然我們已經與這個問題相處了這麼久，我認為我們已經非常擅長它了。

So the conversion loss from one generation to another is normally in the low single digit, low middle single digit.

所以從一代到另一代的轉換損耗通常在低個位數，低個位數。

Now the second thing we try to do is, and I think we actually have been doing it perhaps even more successfully than the first thing.

現在我們嘗試做的第二件事是，我認為我們實際上一直在做這件事，也許比第一件事更成功。

The first thing was to try to minimize the conversion loss.

首先是盡量減少轉換損失。

The second thing we try to do is we try to prolong the life of each generation.

我們嘗試做的第二件事是我們嘗試延長每一代人的壽命。

And I was saying just five minutes ago that I think that the life of 28 nanometer may be longer than a lot of people think.

五分鐘前我還說過，我認為 28 納米的壽命可能比很多人想像的要長。

And I mean it.

我是認真的。

Actually we're still making half-micron stuff.

實際上，我們仍在製造半微米的東西。

And we try to prolong the life of every generation as we continue to migrate to advanced technologies.

隨著我們繼續向先進技術遷移，我們試圖延長每一代人的壽命。

And 28 is certainly a generation that we want to prolong the life of.

28歲當然是我們想要延長壽命的一代。

All right.

好的。

Brett, do you have a second question?

布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

My follow-up question is around China.

我的後續問題是關於中國的。

And maybe you can share with us your plan for 28-nanometer production in China.

也許您可以與我們分享您在中國生產 28 納米的計劃。

Would you expect this to happen over the next 12/24 months?

您預計這會在接下來的 12/24 個月內發生嗎？

And what's the size of the potential production capacity you might be looking at in China?

你在中國看到的潛在產能有多大？

The question is --?

問題是 - ？

Whether or not we will build a 28-nanometer capacity in China in the next 12 to 24 months and how large will that be.

我們是否會在未來 12 到 24 個月內在中國建立 28 納米產能以及規模有多大。

We are seriously considering the possibility.

我們正在認真考慮這種可能性。

And in fact we are gathering data and making contacts, etc.

事實上，我們正在收集數據並建立聯繫等。

There are obviously both pluses and minuses.

顯然既有優點也有缺點。

And we're seriously considering the proposition of making, well, 28 nanometer in China.

我們正在認真考慮在中國製造 28 納米的提議。

And there are also barriers.

而且也有障礙。

But, as I said, at this stage we're exploring.

但是，正如我所說，在這個階段我們正在探索。

We're seriously considering.

我們正在認真考慮。

We're exploring.

我們正在探索。

We're gathering data and making contacts.

我們正在收集數據並建立聯繫。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Let's go back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Now it will be from Barclays' Andrew Lu.

現在它將來自巴克萊的 Andrew Lu。

Dr. Chang, Dr. Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei and CFO.

Chang博士、劉博士和C.C.博士魏和首席財務官。

(Spoken in foreign language).

（用外語講）。

The first one is regarding the revenue outlook for the next few quarters.

第一個是關於未來幾個季度的收入前景。

Are you expecting any single quarter, for the next few quarters, Q2, Q3, Q4, revenue below first quarter?

您是否預計在接下來的幾個季度，第二季度，第三季度，第四季度，任何一個季度的收入都低於第一季度？

Andrew is asking us to give him a guidance whether or not our Q2, Q3, Q4 revenue will be lower than Q1 level.

安德魯要求我們給他一個指導，我們的 Q2、Q3、Q4 收入是否會低於 Q1 的水平。

Will Q2, Q3, Q4 be lower than Q1?

Q2、Q3、Q4會低於Q1嗎？

Any single quarter in your internal forecast saying will be lower than the first quarter?

您的內部預測中的任何一個季度都將低於第一季度？

What is Q1 times four?

Q1乘以四是多少？

Not what the --.

不是什麼--。

I will work out the answer here, right here.

我會在這裡找出答案，就在這裡。

Because that's the following what I am going to calculate, because, based on the estimates, Q1 is quite similar to Q4 from the revenue, from the EPS point of view, from OP margin guidance, gross margin guidance.

因為這就是我要計算的以下內容，因為根據估計，從收入、每股收益的角度、從 OP 利潤率指導、毛利率指導來看，第一季度與第四季度非常相似。

If we times four, revenue is up 16% year over year and the EPS up 20% year over year.

如果我們乘以四，收入同比增長 16%，每股收益同比增長 20%。

That would be consistent with what Mark said.

這與馬克所說的一致。

He said that we will outperform the foundry growth, which is, what, 12%?

他說我們會跑贏代工增長，也就是，什麼，12%？

He said we would outperform it by several points.

他說我們的表現會好幾分。

Yes.

是的。

But this is based on flattish environment.

但這是基於平坦的環境。

We've got no growth for the next few quarters.

我們在接下來的幾個季度沒有增長。

That's why I ask for any downside result.

這就是為什麼我要求任何不利的結果。

All right.

好的。

Let me just tell you what I think.

讓我告訴你我的想法。

I think we have upside.

我認為我們有優勢。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

That's now?

那是現在？

In this year.

在這一年。

Yes.

是的。

And Andrew, I also have to remind you, the foundry numbers are based in US dollars, but the fourth-quarter or the first-quarter revenues are based in NT dollars.

還有安德魯，我還要提醒你，代工數字是以美元為單位的，但第四季度或第一季度的收入是以新台幣為單位的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Second question is are we still planning to raise our cash dividend?

第二個問題是我們是否仍計劃提高我們的現金股息？

Well, look, yes, we are seriously considering it.

好吧，看，是的，我們正在認真考慮。

But obviously I can't answer the question because the Board has to approve it.

但顯然我無法回答這個問題，因為董事會必須批准它。

And then of course the shareholders' meeting has to approve it.

然後當然要得到股東大會的批准。

And -- but --.

但是 - 。

What's in Dr. Chang's mind?

張醫生在想什麼？

What number in your mind?

你心目中的數字是多少？

I'm not going to go there.

我不會去那裡。

I'm not going to go there.

我不會去那裡。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Now we will invite HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

現在我們將邀請匯豐銀行的Steven Pelayo。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

It seems like, especially in the last week, there's been two or three key concerns people are talking about relative to TSMC.

似乎，尤其是在上週，人們在談論與台積電相關的兩三個關鍵問題。

The first one's smartphone growth slowing down.

第一個的智能手機增長放緩。

I think your guidance for foundry market growing 12%, you growing several points faster, kind of answers that growth.

我認為你對代工市場增長 12% 的指導，你增長快了幾個點，這就是增長的答案。

The next two concerns are really about competition, customer concentration.

接下來的兩個問題實際上是關於競爭，客戶集中度。

So I wonder if I just ask, you look at your top-three customers in 2015, do you expect them each to grow year on year and do they grow that several points above 12% foundry market?

所以我想問如果我只是問一下，你看看你在 2015 年的前三大客戶，你是否預計他們每個人都會逐年增長，他們的增長率是否會超過 12% 的代工市場？

Okay.

好的。

Steven's question is regarding our top-three customers, whether or not their business with TSMC year-over-year growth rate will be at least in line with the foundries' 12% rate of growth.

Steven 的問題是關於我們的前三大客戶，他們與台積電的業務同比增長率是否至少與代工廠 12% 的增長率一致。

If we would just limit it to three, it's getting too specific because you almost know who the three are.

如果我們將其限制為三個，那就太具體了，因為您幾乎知道這三個是誰。

And if I tell you anything, you will -- so let's say, let's say 20.

如果我告訴你任何事情，你會的——比如說，假設是 20。

Okay?

好的？

Our top-20 customers.

我們的前 20 名客戶。

I expect the vast, vast majority of them to grow every year.

我預計它們中的絕大多數每年都會增長。

Okay.

好的。

Well then maybe as a follow-up, I think we're all dancing around the same general questions.

那麼也許作為後續行動，我認為我們都在圍繞相同的一般性問題跳舞。

I asked this of you, I think, last quarter.

我想，上個季度我問過你這個問題。

At the 20-nanometer node, you have seven quarters of sequential growth, absolute dollars.

在 20 納米節點，你有七個季度的連續增長，絕對是美元。

20 nanometer has ramped up so significantly because you've had some significant customer wins there.

20 納米的增長如此顯著，因為您在那裡贏得了一些重要的客戶。

When you look at it on a quarterly basis, do you expect every quarter of 20 nanometer to be higher than the prior quarter in dollars as you go through 2015?

當您按季度查看時，您是否預計 20 納米的每個季度都會比 2015 年的前一季度高？

You're asking 20 or 28?

你問的是20還是28？

20 now.

現在20。

20.

20.

Okay.

好的。

20 nanometer, every quarter in the following quarters, whether they will be higher than the prior quarter.

20納米，每季度在接下來的幾個季度，是否會高於上一季度。

20 nanometer, every quarter, whether it will be higher than the prior quarter.

20納米，每季度，是否會高於上一季度。

This year?

今年？

This year.

今年。

I think the answer is yes.

我認為答案是肯定的。

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

And, by the way, going back to the last question, were you just asking about this year or every year from now on?

順便說一句，回到最後一個問題，你是問今年還是以後的每一年？

I think the customer concentration concerns are primarily for this year, trying to offset such huge gains last year.

我認為客戶集中度問題主要是針對今年的，試圖抵消去年的巨大收益。

And it appears as though you are absorbing this.

看起來你好像在吸收這個。

Well, my answer is still the same.

好吧，我的答案還是一樣的。

Of the top 20, I expect the vast, vast majority of them will grow.

在前 20 名中，我預計其中絕大多數都會增長。

Each will grow this year.

今年每個都會增長。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Next questions will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

接下來的問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Bill Lu。

Hi there.

你好呀。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

And also let me add my congratulations on a spectacular 2014.

還要讓我對壯觀的 2014 年表示祝賀。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question is on 28 nanometers.

我的第一個問題是關於 28 納米的。

If I look at your capacity this year versus 2014, how much is the increase in capacity?

如果我看看你們今年的產能與 2014 年相比，產能增加了多少？

28?

28？

28, yes.

28，是的。

C.C., do you want to answer the question?

C.C.，你要回答這個問題嗎？

High double digit.

高兩位數。

High double digit.

高兩位數。

You mean high teens or high double digit?

你的意思是高十幾歲還是高兩位數？

High teens.

高十幾歲。

High teens actually.

實際上是青少年。

High teens.

高十幾歲。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Do you think revenue can grow?

你認為收入可以增長嗎？

In other words, do you think ASP decline should be less than that unit growth?

換句話說，你認為平均售價下降應該小於單位增長嗎？

We are not supposed to comment on a single node's price.

我們不應該評論單個節點的價格。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Our legal advice is not to comment on a single node's price.

我們的法律建議是不對單個節點的價格發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

My second question is on your China strategy.

我的第二個問題是關於你的中國戰略。

I think you talked about potentially looking at 28 nanometers.

我想你談到了潛在的 28 納米。

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding was that Taiwanese companies cannot do 28 in China.

如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我的理解是台灣公司不能在中國做 28。

Can you talk a little bit more about that?

你能多談談嗎？

What?

什麼？

28 nanometer --.

28納米——。

I'm sorry -- yes, yes.

對不起——是的，是的。

28-nanometer manufacturing in China.

中國28納米製造。

So your question is most of the players cannot do 28 nanometer properly in China right now.

所以你的問題是現在中國大部分玩家都做不好28納米。

I thought, by law, Taiwanese companies cannot do 28.

我想，根據法律，台灣公司不能做 28。

Taiwan.

台灣。

Taiwan, no.

台灣，沒有。

Actually Taiwan, I think there's a rule now that says you still have to apply in every instance.

其實台灣，我想現在有一條規定，你還是要每次都申請。

But the general rule is that N minus 1 technology is allowed.

但一般規則是允許使用 N 減 1 技術。

That's Taiwan.

那是台灣。

But you still have to apply in each case.

但是您仍然必須在每種情況下申請。

Okay.

好的。

Next we will be having questions from UBS' Eric Chen.

接下來我們將接受瑞銀的 Eric Chen 的提問。

Hi.

你好。

Very quick, my first question regarding to your China investment.

很快，我的第一個問題是關於您在中國的投資。

So I would like to know why you pick the 28-nanometer process.

所以我想知道你為什麼選擇28納米工藝。

And we know your China client already and do very good business with your TSMC and in Taiwan.

我們已經了解您的中國客戶，並與您的台積電和台灣開展了非常好的業務。

So what's the point for you to build out the 28-nanometer process in China?

那麼，你們在中國打造 28 納米工藝的意義何在？

And what is the trigger and what's the benefit?

什麼是觸發器，有什麼好處？

My first question.

我的第一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

So Eric's question is since most of our Chinese customers already do 28 nanometer with us in Taiwan, why do we need to go to China to capture the 28 nanometers there?

所以 Eric 的問題是，既然我們的大多數中國客戶已經在台灣與我們一起做 28 納米，為什麼我們需要去中國捕捉那裡的 28 納米？

What's the plus and the minus?

優點和缺點是什麼？

Well, because they're telling us that, yes, they will continue to do 28 with us, but it would be better if they do 28 with us if we're in China.

嗯，因為他們告訴我們，是的，他們會繼續和我們一起做 28，但如果我們在中國，他們和我們一起做 28 會更好。

Okay.

好的。

So in this --.

所以在這——。

And you have to realize that there are companies, there are foundries in China that are also going to do 28 nanometer.

而且你必須意識到，中國有一些公司，有一些代工廠也將做 28 納米。

And so they may prefer to buy from -- our customers may prefer to buy from the Chinese foundries when their 28 becomes available.

因此，他們可能更願意從中國代工廠購買——當他們的 28 台可用時，我們的客戶可能更願意從中國代工廠購買。

Okay.

好的。

Can we assume from the profitability point of view, there's no big change, no big difference between the manufacturing in Taiwan and the manufacturing in China, right?

我們可以假設從盈利的角度來看，台灣製造和大陸製造沒有太大的變化，沒有太大的區別，對吧？

What's that?

那是什麼？

Whether or not the profitability -- in fact you are actually talking about cost.

無論是否盈利——事實上你實際上是在談論成本。

Yes, and efficiency.

是的，還有效率。

Well there are pluses and minuses.

那麼有優點和缺點。

Basically I think the cost that we have had the experience of, well, for more than 10 years now of operating an 8-inch factory in China, okay, cost seems to be -- the cost is higher.

基本上，我認為我們在中國運營 8 英寸工廠 10 多年所經歷的成本，好吧，成本似乎是 - 成本更高。

All right?

好的？

That's a minus.

那是一個減號。

But if you lose business, then it's even worse.

但如果你失去了生意，那就更糟了。

All right?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

My second question regarding to the CapEx.

我關於資本支出的第二個問題。

With raise on the CapEx, I would say the CapEx is higher in the market expectation, so can we expect, can we assume all the equipment or capacity for the 16-nano FinFET probably will move ahead of all the earlier schedule?

隨著資本支出的提高，我想說資本支出在市場預期中更高，那麼我們是否可以預期，我們是否可以假設 16 納米 FinFET 的所有設備或產能可能會提前所有計劃？

In terms of the 16-nano FinFET, the equipment schedule will now move ahead?

在 16 納米 FinFET 方面，設備計劃現在會提前嗎？

So, Eric, your question is since our CapEx guidance is higher than market expectation, whether or not we are moving the equipment earlier or ahead of our original schedule?

所以，埃里克，你的問題是，由於我們的資本支出指導高於市場預期，我們是否提前或提前移動設備？

Yes, for the 16.

是的，對於 16。

For 16 nanometer?

16納米？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I don't know what the market expectations are.

我不知道市場的預期是什麼。

We don't benchmark ourselves against market expectations.

我們不以市場預期為基準。

We benchmark ourselves against needs.

我們以需求為基準。

Yes.

是的。

Right.

正確的。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

But, Dr. Chang, I remember the -- probably the six months ago, you talked about the -- or probably three months ago, six months ago, and in conference probably Lora mentioned the CapEx for this year probably slightly higher than year 2014.

但是，Chang 博士，我記得 - 可能是六個月前，你談到了 - 或者可能是三個月前，六個月前，在會議上，Lora 可能提到今年的資本支出可能略高於 2014 年.

And so I assume we'd get more aggressive with the CapEx.

所以我認為我們會在資本支出方面變得更加積極。

Am I right?

我對嗎？

Well I think we have always been reasonably aggressive in CapEx, without speculating at all.

好吧，我認為我們在資本支出方面一直相當激進，根本沒有投機。

So that's our standard.

所以這是我們的標準。

All right.

好的。

So I don't know what your question is anyway.

所以我不知道你的問題是什麼。

Are you asking whether we're moving in -- how soon we are buying the -- we're setting up the capacity?

你是在問我們是否要搬進來——我們多久購買——我們正在建立產能？

Is that what he says?

他是這麼說的嗎？

Well, I think, Eric, you are really trying to see if we are becoming more confident and convinced of the demand so we are putting in the equipment sooner, right?

嗯，我想，埃里克，你真的想看看我們是否對需求變得更有信心和確信，所以我們會盡快投入設備，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I said earlier that we don't build capacity on speculation.

我之前說過，我們不會在投機上建立能力。

So that's what we mean?

所以這就是我們的意思？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

So then next I think we will -- because JP Morgan's Gokul was already waving his hands and hence we'll give the microphone to him.

那麼接下來我想我們會——因為 JP Morgan 的 Gokul 已經在揮手，因此我們會將麥克風交給他。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Congrats on a good 2014.

祝賀2014年美好。

And thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您提出我的問題。

First, I had a question on there's been a lot of controversy about cost per transistor, whether Moore's law -- the economics of Moore's law are slowing down.

首先，我有一個問題，關於每個晶體管的成本存在很多爭議，摩爾定律是否——摩爾定律的經濟學正在放緩。

Your competitor Intel has put out a very emphatic statement saying that until 7 nanometer they're seeing that continuing at the same pace as before.

你的競爭對手英特爾已經發表了一個非常強調的聲明，說直到 7 納米，他們看到它以與以前相同的速度繼續。

But there has been a lot of noise from the fabless community in the last couple of years that at 20 nanometer or at 16 nanometer there is a potential slowdown.

但在過去的幾年裡，無晶圓廠社區發出了很多噪音，即 20 納米或 16 納米可能會放緩。

Could we have TSMC's version now that you're pretty much ready to start 10 nanometer and thinking already about 7?

既然您已經準備好開始 10 納米並且已經考慮到 7 納米，我們能否擁有台積電的版本？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

So, all right.

所以，好吧。

Let me repeat.

讓我重複一遍。

Gokul, your question is mainly on the comments on cost per transistor.

Gokul，您的問題主要是關於每個晶體管成本的評論。

Some of the other players, I think you're referring to Intel, who has made comments that they do see the cost per transistor to continue into 7 nanometer and so they can handle the economics of the Moore's law.

其他一些玩家，我想你指的是英特爾，他們發表評論說他們確實看到每個晶體管的成本會持續到 7 納米，因此他們可以處理摩爾定律的經濟學。

Whereas, on the other hand, fabless companies begin to complain about not seeing enough economics, starting with 20 nanometer.

而另一方面，無晶圓廠公司開始抱怨沒有看到足夠的經濟性，從 20 納米開始。

So what is TSMC's statement regarding this economics issue?

那麼台積電對這個經濟問題的說法是什麼？

Let me answer this question.

讓我來回答這個問題。

The cost of transistor continues to go down.

晶體管的成本繼續下降。

And by scaling mostly is -- everybody knows, nobody I think has refused that statement -- we see the cost of transistor continues going down in a constant rate.

通過擴展主要是-大家都知道，我認為沒有人拒絕該聲明-我們看到晶體管的成本繼續以恆定的速度下降。

And in going forward, the cost of transistor going down probably at slightly slower rate.

展望未來，晶體管成本的下降速度可能會稍慢一些。

That's the argument.

這就是論據。

But it really depends on companies.

但這真的取決於公司。

And for some companies simply do not have the technological capabilities.

而對於一些公司來說根本不具備技術能力。

And today, further going down the Moore's Law technology developments, just a few.

而今天，進一步沿著摩爾定律發展的技術，僅此而已。

And we -- as far as whether those costs can -- is -- can get enough returns, and of course that has to do with how much that technology brings value to the product where they command the price.

而我們——就這些成本是否能夠——是否能夠獲得足夠的回報，當然這與該技術為他們控制價格的產品帶來多少價值有關。

And today we see certain segments will continue to need that type of system performance to get enough return.

今天我們看到某些細分市場將繼續需要這種類型的系統性能來獲得足夠的回報。

So this is the reason we committed to push the system scaling.

所以這就是我們致力於推動系統擴展的原因。

So can we say that for customers who can afford it, it is still going to go down basically?

那我們能不能說，買得起的客戶，基本還是要往下走的？

Even at 10 nanometer, for customers who can afford it, afford the development cost and have the volume, the cost is still going to be going down substantially?

即使是10納米，對於買得起、負擔得起、有量的客戶，成本還會大幅下降嗎？

Of course.

當然。

Of course.

當然。

It will go down very significantly, yes.

會顯著下降，是的。

I had a second question, just a clarification on the 16-nanometer ramp-up.

我有第二個問題，只是對 16 納米加速增長的澄清。

I think last conference C.C. mentioned that 16-nanometer ramp-up is likely to be at or even faster than the 20-nanometer ramp-up that we saw last year, with a five-quarter delay.

我認為上次會議 C.C.提到 16 納米的增長可能會比我們去年看到的 20 納米的增長速度更快，但延遲了五個季度。

So basically meaning that first quarter 2016, 16-nanometer revenues could be even higher than what 20-nanometer revenues were last quarter.

所以基本上意味著 2016 年第一季度，16 納米的收入可能會高於上一季度 20 納米的收入。

Is that still the expectation for the 16-nanometer ramp-up in the next few quarters?

這仍然是對未來幾個季度 16 納米增長的預期嗎？

What was the question?

問題是什麼？

The question is whether or not the speed of the ramp-up of 16-nanometer will be faster than the speed of the 20-nanometer ramp-up in the first three quarters.

問題是，前三季度 16 納米的加速增長速度是否會快於 20 納米的加速增長速度。

In the first three quarters, ramping-up speed was similar, but maybe a little bit faster, but very similar.

在前三個季度，增長速度相似，但可能會快一點，但非常相似。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Due to --.

由於 - 。

Don't we have any more questions from the --?

我們沒有更多的問題來自--嗎？

There are people raising hands here.

這裡有人舉手。

Okay.

好的。

There is Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

還有大和的 Rick Hsu。

No, no.

不，不。

I mean overseas calls.

我是說海外電話。

Go ahead, Rick.

來吧，瑞克。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

Sure.

當然。

I'll do this quick.

我會盡快做這件事。

Yes.

是的。

This is Rick from Daiwa.

這是大和的瑞克。

So just got one question here.

所以這裡只有一個問題。

I remember in the last four years, post the financial crisis, I think TSMC tended to build about two fab shells per year for expansion a year ahead.

我記得在金融危機後的過去四年裡，我認為台積電傾向於每年建造大約兩個晶圓廠，以用於未來一年的擴張。

But if I look at this year, correct me if I'm wrong, if I look at this year, it seems to me that you don't have any new fab shells under construction.

但是如果我看今年，如果我錯了，請糾正我，如果我看今年，在我看來，你們沒有任何新的晶圓廠正在建設中。

So does that mean you guys are turning a bit more conservative in 2016 or 2017?

那麼這是否意味著你們在 2016 年或 2017 年變得更加保守？

So Rick is asking us whether or not we will be building new fab shells this year at the same speed as we did in the past, which is two shells per year.

所以 Rick 詢問我們今年是否會以與過去相同的速度建造新的晶圓廠外殼，即每年兩個外殼。

We will.

我們將。

We continue this trend.

我們繼續這一趨勢。

Two shells a year.

一年兩發。

Two shells almost for one generation.

兩殼幾乎是一代人。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Randy has a follow-up question.

蘭迪有一個後續問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question on the guidance you gave for first quarter is holding up pretty well flat.

關於您為第一季度提供的指導，我的第一個問題是保持平穩。

And looking at the last four to five years, it's also been much better than it used to be at the beginning of the year in the first quarter.

回顧過去的四到五年，第一季度的情況也比年初好得多。

If you could talk about if you're seeing seasonal patterns shifting more, customers getting more aggressive first half, and if you see the same type of scenario where we have second-half slowdown again, so if you see a different pattern of seasonality.

如果您可以談論您是否看到季節性模式變化更多，客戶在上半年變得更加激進，如果您看到下半年再次放緩的相同類型的情況，那麼如果您看到不同的季節性模式。

Okay.

好的。

Seasonality.

季節性。

Randy's observation was that in the past he saw our customers to be optimistic in the first half and then going through an inventory correction in the second half.

Randy 的觀察是，過去他看到我們的客戶在上半年保持樂觀，然後在下半年經歷庫存調整。

Will we be seeing similar pattern this year?

今年我們會看到類似的模式嗎？

This year we just guided a strong first quarter because typically this first quarter is a slow quarter for us.

今年我們剛剛引導了強勁的第一季度，因為通常第一季度對我們來說是一個緩慢的季度。

So that's -- we being flat is considered as comfortable.

所以這就是——我們平躺被認為是舒服的。

For this year, because our -- more recently the smartphone announcement getting to the -- strongly affected the general inventory pattern.

今年，因為我們——最近發布的智能手機——強烈影響了總體庫存模式。

The smartphone launch, typically in the April timeframe and in September, and that will depend how much share we gain in each launch will affect our seasonal pattern.

智能手機的發布，通常在 4 月和 9 月發布，這將取決於我們在每次發布中獲得多少份額，這將影響我們的季節性模式。

For this year, the first quarter and -- for this year the pattern will be different than next year's.

今年第一季度和 - 今年的模式將與明年不同。

It will also be different than last year's.

它也將與去年不同。

So that's the comment that has come into play with different share we have.

這就是我們所擁有的不同份額的評論。

Okay?

好的？

Another follow-up question I want to ask.

我想問的另一個後續問題。

On the currency, we finally have NT dollar moving in your favor to support margin improvement.

在貨幣方面，我們終於有新台幣對您有利以支持保證金改善。

In the past, when you see NT dollar depreciate, can you typically sustain the incremental profitability?

過去，當您看到新台幣貶值時，您通常可以維持增量盈利嗎？

Or if NT were to stay at TWD32 or even move higher, do you eventually have to share it with your customers?

或者如果新台幣保持在 TWD32 甚至更高，您最終是否必須與您的客戶分享？

Or how that typically plays out, if it remains better for the Company.

或者這通常會如何發揮作用，如果它對公司來說仍然更好的話。

Could you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Right.

正確的。

So, Randy, you are asking whether or not we can sustain the advantage coming from the currency -- the favorable exchange rate, right, sustaining beyond, say, the first quarter?

所以，蘭迪，你是在問我們是否能夠維持來自貨幣的優勢——有利的匯率，對吧，維持到第一季度之後？

Well, yes, if we were to stay at TWD32.

好吧，是的，如果我們留在TWD32。

The ratio, I think we said earlier, a long time ago, by that I mean two, three years ago, that each point -- each percentage point of exchange rate change is equivalent to 0.4 percent point of our margin.

這個比率，我想我們早先說過，很久以前，我的意思是兩三年前，匯率變化的每一點 - 每一個百分點的匯率變化相當於我們保證金的0.4個百分點。

I think you're asking whether that still holds true.

我想你是在問這是否仍然成立。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

Or whether, if the currency stays at that level, if, over time, like if that's a permanent benefit, if we were to stay at TWD32 or over time you share some with your customers?

或者，如果貨幣保持在那個水平，如果隨著時間的推移，如果這是一個永久的好處，如果我們保持在 TWD32 或隨著時間的推移，你會與你的客戶分享一些嗎？

So you're saying that since -- if NT dollar remained this low, whether or not we will share the exchange rate benefit, at least part of that, with our customers.

所以你的意思是，如果新台幣保持在這麼低的水平，我們是否會與我們的客戶分享匯率收益，至少是其中的一部分。

Whether we will be sharing the exchange rate benefit with our customers, i.e.

我們是否會與我們的客戶分享匯率利益，即

whether or not we are willing to take a lower US dollar price.

我們是否願意接受更低的美元價格。

Well they didn't share the exchange rate loss with us.

好吧，他們沒有與我們分享匯率損失。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Follow-up question from Roland.

羅蘭的後續問題。

Citi's Roland Shu.

花旗的羅蘭舒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just a 10-nanometer question to C.C. Since, C.C., you said we are expecting to volume production of 10-nanometer in 2017.

只是向 C.C. 提出的 10 納米問題。因為，C.C.，你說我們預計在 2017 年量產 10 納米。

But I remember in the past two quarters actually our goal was to pulling in 10-nanometer mass production by end of 2016.

但我記得在過去兩個季度，我們的目標實際上是在 2016 年底之前實現 10 納米的量產。

So are we pushing out the 10-nanometer mass production schedule a little bit on that?

那麼我們是否會稍微推遲 10 納米的量產計劃呢？

Let me explain that, because 10 nanometer, the mask layers is about 70 to 80.

讓我解釋一下，因為 10 納米，掩膜層大約是 70 到 80。

So you've got to start in 2016 to have output in 2017.

所以你必須從 2016 年開始，才能在 2017 年有產出。

So what I'm talking about is 2017 is to start to have revenue.

所以我說的是2017年開始有收入。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So wafer start schedule definitely does not change.

所以晶圓啟動時間表肯定不會改變。

I cannot say more than that.

我不能說更多。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Andrew Lu also has follow-up question.

Andrew Lu 也有後續問題。

I remember last investor conference, C.C. Wei mentioned 16 FinFET revenue have a high single digit by Q4 this year and maybe few percentage by Q3.

我記得上次投資者會議，C.C. Wei 提到，到今年第四季度，16 個 FinFET 的收入達到了很高的個位數，到第三季度可能只有幾個百分比。

Is that number unchanged?

這個數字不變嗎？

Unchanged.

不變。

It sounds less confident.

聽起來不太自信。

The more I say, the more that the information from the customer will be released.

我說的越多，客戶的信息就會越多。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

All right.

好的。

And, Andrew, you're done, right?

而且，安德魯，你已經完成了，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Now we're going to Dan Heyler.

現在我們要去丹海勒。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I had a question on the -- more the mature nodes situation.

我有一個關於成熟節點情況的問題。

Saw a nice chunk of revenue there on the mature 12-inch nodes.

在成熟的 12 英寸節點上看到了可觀的收入。

As we move into IoT, there's a lot of interesting products that are coming up, ultra-low power for one.

隨著我們進入物聯網，有很多有趣的產品即將問世，其中一種是超低功耗。

I'm wondering, as you look at the 40, 65 nodes, what's happening on device complexity?

我想知道，當您查看 40、65 個節點時，設備複雜性發生了什麼？

Is device complexity there increasing, because we hear about device complexity may be -- on the mature node may be increasing.

那裡的設備複雜性是否在增加，因為我們聽說設備複雜性可能——在成熟節點上可能會增加。

I wonder if you have a view on that?

我想知道你對此有看法嗎？

Sorry, it's more design-related.

抱歉，這與設計有關。

What I'm getting at there is the ASP trends.

我在那裡得到的是 ASP 趨勢。

I think there's a traditional view of mature technologies as being low-margin business.

我認為有一種傳統觀點認為成熟的技術是低利潤的業務。

C.C., why don't you answer the question?

C.C.，你為什麼不回答這個問題？

Generally, yes, the device complexity on mature nodes is increasing.

一般來說，是的，成熟節點上的設備複雜度正在增加。

That's how we're prolonging the life of the mature nodes.

這就是我們如何延長成熟節點的壽命。

Yes.

是的。

Usually we develop the pure logic technology into the derivative technologies, which is more complex, complicated.

通常我們把純邏輯技術發展成衍生技術，更加複雜，複雜。

One good example is from the logic to embedded Flash, when you add quite a few steps.

一個很好的例子是從邏輯到嵌入式 Flash，當您添加相當多的步驟時。

When we come to CMOS image sensor or those kind of things, all, that's more complex.

當我們談到 CMOS 圖像傳感器或類似的東西時，一切都變得更加複雜。

Yes.

是的。

So implications there for -- I would presume pricing and market share then would be, I guess, quite favorable.

所以那裡的含義 - 我認為定價和市場份額將是非常有利的。

Does -- do you -- when device complexity goes up, does that hold blended ASPs flat or does it increase ASP in general terms?

你是否——當設備複雜性上升時，這會使混合 ASP 保持不變還是總體上會增加 ASP？

What was the question again?

又是什麼問題？

Because of the complexity of the mature technology is increasing, whether we will benefit from ASP because of the --.

由於成熟技術的複雜性在增加，我們是否會因為 ASP 而受益——。

Whether we will what?

不管我們會怎樣？

Our ASP will benefit.

我們的 ASP 將受益。

Will benefit?

將受益？

Does market ASP?

有沒有市場ASP？

Well, actually I would say that our profitability has remained pretty constant over -- well, in the early stage, the profitability of a node is often low.

好吧，實際上我會說我們的盈利能力一直保持相當穩定——嗯，在早期階段，一個節點的盈利能力通常很低。

As Lora pointed out, it takes about eight quarters for the margin to get to the corporate level.

正如 Lora 指出的那樣，利潤率大約需要 8 個季度才能達到公司水平。

But after that, it stays pretty constant.

但在那之後，它保持不變。

Well it increases a little bit in fact.

好吧，實際上它增加了一點。

It increases.

它增加了。

Particularly in the last few years I think we have pushed up the structural profitability.

特別是在過去幾年中，我認為我們推高了結構性盈利能力。

And, yes, I think that the added complexity or the -- actually, a lot of new things are happening on the mature nodes.

而且，是的，我認為增加的複雜性或 - 實際上，成熟節點上正在發生許多新事物。

We -- so the mature nodes today are nothing like -- well, not nothing like, but only about 50%, 60% like what they were when they were first introduced.

我們——所以今天的成熟節點一點也不像——嗯，一點也不像，但只有大約 50%、60% 像它們首次推出時的樣子。

That's about right?

差不多吧？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Great.

偉大的。

And the second question is on the -- do you think 28 revenue will grow this year?

第二個問題是——你認為今年 28 的收入會增長嗎？

You expect it will?

你期望它會嗎？

Okay.

好的。

And then if that's the case, does the mature technology overall -- everything else, say 40 to 90, is that able to stay flat or does that go down, because there's still some -- a lot of migration taking place to 28.

如果是這樣的話，那麼成熟的技術是否整體上——其他的一切，比如 40 到 90，是能夠保持不變還是會下降，因為還有一些——大量遷移到 28。

28's a very attractive node.

28 是一個非常有吸引力的節點。

I'm just wondering what's happening on the 40, 65 and 90.

我只是想知道 40、65 和 90 發生了什麼。

Can that hold flat or does that decline?

這可以保持不變還是會下降？

I think it depends on nodes.

我認為這取決於節點。

Yes.

是的。

So Dan's question is if we are growing our 20-nanometer revenue, we're growing our 28-nanometer revenue, whether or not our 40, 65, etc., those older nodes' revenue will be growing as well.

所以 Dan 的問題是，如果我們正在增加 20 納米的收入，我們正在增加 28 納米的收入，無論我們的 40、65 等，那些舊節點的收入也會增長。

If I can make some comment on your questions.

如果我可以對你的問題發表一些評論。

Actually we have very strong demand on those specialty technologies.

實際上，我們對這些專業技術有非常強烈的需求。

As you know that the 0.15, 0.18, there's very high demand.

如您所知，0.15、0.18 的需求非常高。

And we are also increasing the technology offering for 40 nanometer and 65.

我們還在增加 40 納米和 65 納米的技術產品。

From what I can see now, I believe the 2015, those mature technologies revenue will be bigger than 2014.

從我現在看到的情況來看，我相信 2015 年，那些成熟技術的收入會比 2014 年更大。

Excellent.

出色的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

So I think really we will just allow two hands.

所以我認為我們真的只允許兩隻手。

Okay?

好的？

It will first go to Michael and then it will be Steven.

首先是邁克爾，然後是史蒂文。

And then that will be the end.

然後這將是結束。

So sorry.

非常抱歉。

Just the capacity increase this year, so what will be your forecast?

今年只是產能增加，那麼您的預測是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

With the $11.5b to $12b CapEx, we expect to increase our capacity by about 11% to 12%.

憑藉 11.5b 至 12b 美元的資本支出，我們預計我們的產能將增加約 11% 至 12%。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Steven?

史蒂文?

The guidance for the first quarter is very, very impressive.

第一季度的指導非常非常令人印象深刻。

And of course we're all going to try to reconcile that with the full year, Andrew's question, with the full-year guidance.

當然，我們都將嘗試將其與全年（安德魯的問題）與全年指導相協調。

I guess could we talk just a little bit about the second quarter, but talk about it relative to -- I think you mentioned last quarter and I think you did it last year, you had some -- you do some pre-building in the first quarter ahead of the second quarter.

我想我們可以稍微談談第二季度，但談談它相對於——我想你提到了上個季度，我想你去年做了，你有一些——你在第一季度領先於第二季度。

How much of that is impacting your first-quarter guidance?

其中有多少影響了您的第一季度指導？

Lora?

勞拉？

Very minimal.

非常少。

As we are going through the inventory depletions and this pre-build gets less and less, I think you know the purpose, trying to utilize the capacity without any waste.

當我們正在經歷庫存消耗並且這種預構建變得越來越少時，我想你知道目的，試圖在沒有任何浪費的情況下利用容量。

So it does help a little bit for the utilization.

因此，它確實對利用率有所幫助。

But it's getting lower and lower now.

但是現在越來越低了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

So I think, in the interest of time, we will end our conference here.

所以我想，為了時間，我們將在這裡結束我們的會議。

Thank you for coming.

謝謝你的到來。

And I hope we will see you next quarter.

我希望我們下個季度再見。

And good bye.

再見。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。