台積電 ADR (TSM) 2015 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's first-quarter 2015 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2015 年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live via TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in number -- your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入號碼 - 您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter followed by our guidance for the current quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官Lora Ho女士將總結我們在第一季度的運營情況，然後是我們對本季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's two Presidents and Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide a couple of key messages.

之後，台積電的兩位總裁兼聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei，將共同提供幾個關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for a summary of the operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想請台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士來領獎台，了解運營情況和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter and followed by the guidance for the second quarter.

我的演講將從第一季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第二季度的指導。

First let me summarize our first-quarter performance.

首先讓我總結一下我們第一季度的表現。

In first quarter we have achieved TWD222b in revenue, 49.3% gross margin, 39% operating margin and TWD3.05 in EPS, which are all within our guidance range.

在第一季度，我們實現了 TWD222b 的收入、49.3% 的毛利率、39% 的營業利潤率和 TWD3.05 的每股收益，這些都在我們的指導範圍內。

On a year-over-year basis, first quarter showed very strong growth versus last year.

與去年同期相比，第一季度與去年相比增長非常強勁。

Our revenue increased 50%.

我們的收入增長了 50%。

Gross margin and operating margin went up by 1.8 percentage point and 3.6 percentage point respectively.

毛利率和營業利潤率分別上升1.8個百分點和3.6個百分點。

Net income and EPS both increased 65% versus the same period last year.

與去年同期相比，淨收入和每股收益均增長了 65%。

On a sequential basis, the wafer demand for the first quarter remained strong.

從環比來看，第一季度的矽片需求依然強勁。

But NT dollar was stronger than the assumption in our first-quarter guidance by about 1%, which reduced our revenue by TWD1.9b.

但新台幣比我們第一季度指引中的假設強約 1%，這使我們的收入減少了 TWD1.9b。

Despite that, our first-quarter revenue remained essentially flat versus fourth quarter last year.

儘管如此，我們第一季度的收入與去年第四季度基本持平。

On the profitability side, gross margin was slightly lower than fourth quarter, mainly due to lower capacity utilization, offset by cost improvement, favorable inventory valuation adjustments and a favorable foreign exchange rate.

在盈利能力方面，毛利率略低於第四季度，主要是由於產能利用率下降，但被成本改善、有利的庫存估值調整和有利的匯率所抵消。

Let's take a look at the revenue by application.

讓我們看一下應用程序的收入。

During the first quarter, communication and computers declined 9% and 10% sequentially, while consumer and industrial increased 32% and 19% respectively.

第一季度，通信和計算機環比下降 9% 和 10%，而消費和工業分別增長 32% 和 19%。

By technology, 20-nanometer revenue contribution decreased from 21% in the fourth quarter last year to 16% in the first quarter this year due to key customers' product seasonality.

從技術上看，由於主要客戶的產品季節性，20納米的收入貢獻從去年第四季度的21%下降到今年第一季度的16%。

Meanwhile customers' demand for our 28-nanometer wafers remained solid and contributed 30% of wafer revenue.

同時，客戶對我們 28 納米晶圓的需求保持穩定，貢獻了 30% 的晶圓收入。

Accordingly, these two advanced technologies, 20-nanometer and 28-nanometer, represented 46% of our first-quarter wafer revenue, 5 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter last year.

因此，20 納米和 28 納米這兩種先進技術占我們第一季度晶圓收入的 46%，比去年第四季度低 5 個百分點。

Now let's move on to the balance sheet.

現在讓我們繼續討論資產負債表。

On the asset side, cash and marketable securities increased TWD82b to a record level of TWD519b at the end of the first quarter.

在資產方面，現金和有價證券在第一季度末將 TWD82b 增加到 TWD519b 的創紀錄水平。

On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD13b as we paid down TWD17b of short-term bank loans.

在負債方面，流動負債減少了TWD13b，因為我們償還了TWD17b的短期銀行貸款。

As cash continued to increase, the debt ratio has come down from 30% level in the past two years to 28% in the first quarter.

隨著現金的不斷增加，負債率從過去兩年的30%下降到一季度的28%。

Working capital remained healthy.

營運資金保持健康。

The accounts receivable turnover days decreased 3 days to 44 days.

應收賬款周轉天數減少 3 天至 44 天。

Days of inventories decreased by 1 day to 57 days.

庫存天數減少 1 天至 57 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter we generated TWD156b cash from operations and invested TWD49b in capital expenditure.

在第一季度，我們從運營中產生了 TWD156b 現金，並將 TWD49b 投資於資本支出。

As a result, free cash flow reached a record level of TWD107b and cash balance increased to TWD437b or about $14b at the end of the first quarter.

結果，自由現金流達到創紀錄的 TWD107b，現金餘額在第一季度末增加到 TWD437b 或約 $14b。

So I have finished my report of the financial part.

至此，我完成了財務部分的報告。

Now let's turn to the second-quarter outlook.

現在讓我們轉向第二季度的展望。

In the second quarter, a combination of the key customers' business loss to a captive IDM; inventory adjustment, which will be explained in more detail by Mark; and less favorable exchange rate, all three will negatively impact our business.

在第二季度，主要客戶的業務虧損給專屬IDM；庫存調整，Mark會詳細解釋；以及不利的匯率，這三者都會對我們的業務產生負面影響。

Based on our current business outlook and the forecast exchange rate of TWD31.03, we expect our second-quarter revenue to be between TWD204b and TWD207b, representing a 7% to 8% Q-over-Q decline.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 TWD31.03 的預測匯率，我們預計我們第二季度的收入將在 TWD204b 和 TWD207b 之間，環比下降 7% 至 8%。

Gross profit margin to be between 47.5% and 49.5%.

毛利率介於 47.5% 至 49.5% 之間。

And operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.

營業利潤率在 36.5% 到 38.5% 之間。

Here I will give you a reminder about tax.

在這裡，我將給你一個關於稅收的提醒。

As you know, in every second quarter we will need to accrue a 10% tax on undistributed retained earnings.

如您所知，每第二個季度，我們需要對未分配的留存收益徵收 10% 的稅。

As a result, our quarterly tax rate in this second quarter will go up to 24%.

因此，我們在第二季度的季度稅率將上升至 24%。

I also want to inform you that the approximately TWD15b gain from ASML share disposal is not a taxable item.

我還想通知您，從 ASML 股份出售中獲得的大約 TWD15b 收益不是應稅項目。

After the second quarter, the tax rate will fall back to 11% in the third and fourth quarter and our full-year tax rate will be about 14%.

二季度以後，三四季度稅率會回落到11%，我們全年的稅率在14%左右。

In addition to the second-quarter guidance, I will also update you on our CapEx.

除了第二季度的指導外，我還將向您介紹我們的資本支出。

Our 2015 full-year CapEx will be reduced by $1b.

我們的 2015 年全年資本支出將減少 1b 美元。

So we now expect our CapEx this year will be between $10.5b and $11b.

所以我們現在預計我們今年的資本支出將在 $10.5b 和 $11b 之間。

The reduction mainly came from two areas.

減少主要來自兩個方面。

The first area, we have continually improved our capital efficiency, which allows us to spend less but still achieve the same capacity.

第一個領域，我們不斷提高我們的資本效率，這使我們能夠花費更少但仍能達到相同的產能。

And we are migrating our 20-nanometer to 16-nanometer faster, which allows us to convert more of the 20-nanometer tools to be used for 16-nanometer at a lower CapEx.

我們正在更快地將 20 納米遷移到 16 納米，這使我們能夠以較低的資本支出將更多的 20 納米工具用於 16 納米。

The $1b CapEx reduction will not affect our overall capacity build-up for the whole year.

減少 1b 美元的資本支出不會影響我們全年的整體產能建設。

We will increase our 16 capacity while decrease our 20-nanometer capacity.

我們將增加 16 納米的容量，同時減少 20 納米的容量。

Finally, despite of the lower second quarter, we expect revenue for the second half of the year will recover and the full year will be double-digit growth over 2014.

最後，儘管第二季度有所下滑，但我們預計下半年的收入將恢復，全年將比 2014 年實現兩位數的增長。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Now our two Presidents and Co-CEOs will deliver the key messages.

現在，我們的兩位總裁和聯席首席執行官將傳達關鍵信息。

We'll start with Mark.

我們將從馬克開始。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I will deliver the key messages.

我將傳遞關鍵信息。

First on the near-term demand.

首先是近期需求。

The demand of TSMC wafers remained strong in the first quarter.

一季度台積電晶圓需求依然強勁。

This led to our 1Q quarterly revenue to be essentially flat from fourth quarter last year.

這導致我們第一季度的收入與去年第四季度基本持平。

In the second quarter, some of our customers appear too optimistic on their own market outlook.

在第二季度，我們的一些客戶對自己的市場前景顯得過於樂觀。

As a result, the inventory level of them appeared to be higher than they planned.

結果，他們的庫存水平似乎高於他們的計劃。

Recently we saw several mobile customers cut back their delivery schedule because their demand did not come to what they anticipated.

最近我們看到一些移動客戶縮短了他們的交付計劃，因為他們的需求沒有達到他們的預期。

Therefore we forecast our second-quarter demand will be below normal and quarterly revenue will decline by about 7% to 8% from first quarter.

因此，我們預測我們第二季度的需求將低於正常水平，季度收入將比第一季度下降約 7% 至 8%。

Our near-term market demand will then be more moderate than we estimated in January.

屆時，我們近期的市場需求將比我們 1 月份的估計更為溫和。

We now estimate fabless companies exit the first quarter with inventory days higher than seasonal level.

我們現在估計無晶圓廠公司在第一季度退出時的庫存天數高於季節性水平。

However, we think it will be back to normal towards the end of second quarter this year.

但是，我們認為它將在今年第二季度末恢復正常。

So forward looking for full year, we will be continuously working on a double-digit revenue growth year for 2015.

因此，展望全年，我們將繼續努力在 2015 年實現兩位數的收入增長。

Next I want to comment a few on our long-term outlook.

接下來，我想就我們的長期前景發表一些評論。

TSMC target our long-term revenue, CAGR compound annual growth -- average growth rate to be 10% in the next five years.

台積電的目標是我們的長期收入、CAGR 複合年增長率——未來五年的平均增長率為 10%。

We intend to maintain our structural profitability and the net profit growth will be in line with revenue growth.

我們打算保持結構性盈利能力，淨利潤增長將與收入增長保持一致。

The continuous demand of more functionality and integration in smartphones drives for more silicon content.

對智能手機中更多功能和集成的持續需求推動了對更多矽含量的推動。

We expect smartphones will continue to drive our growth in the next several years.

我們預計智能手機將在未來幾年繼續推動我們的增長。

In the meantime, we see IoT appears us -- present us new growth opportunities.

與此同時，我們看到物聯網出現在我們面前——給我們帶來了新的增長機會。

The proliferation of IoT not only will bring us growth in the sensor, connectivity and advanced packaging areas, the associated application and services, such as big data analytics, will also further our growth in the computation space, including application processor, network processor, image processor, graphic processor, microcontroller and other various processors.

物聯網的普及不僅將給我們帶來傳感器、連接和先進封裝領域的增長，相關的應用和服務，如大數據分析，也將進一步推動我們在計算領域的增長，包括應用處理器、網絡處理器、圖像處理器、圖形處理器、微控制器和其他各種處理器。

That was the long-term outlook.

那是長期的展望。

I'll update some of our 10-nanometer development progress.

我將更新我們的一些 10 納米開發進展。

Our 10-nanometer technology development is progressing well.

我們的 10 納米技術開發進展順利。

Our technology qualification remains in Q4 this year.

我們的技術資格仍然在今年第四季度。

Recently we have successfully achieved fully functional yields of our 256-megabit SRAM.

最近，我們成功實現了 256 兆位 SRAM 的全功能產量。

Currently we have more than 10 customers fully engaged with us on 10-nanometer.

目前，我們有超過 10 家客戶與我們在 10 納米方面進行了全面合作。

We still expect to have 10-nanometer volume ramp in fourth quarter 2016 and to contribute billing in early 2017.

我們仍然預計 2016 年第四季度將有 10 納米的產量增長，並在 2017 年初貢獻賬單。

This technology adopts our third-generation FinFET transistor and have scaling more than one generation.

該技術採用我們的第三代 FinFET 晶體管，並且具有不止一代的縮放。

Its price is fully justified by its value for various applications, including application processor, baseband SoC, network processor, CPU and graphic processors.

它的價格完全符合其對各種應用的價值，包括應用處理器、基帶 SoC、網絡處理器、CPU 和圖形處理器。

Its cost and price ratio will comply to our structural profitability considerations.

其成本和價格比率將符合我們的結構盈利能力考慮。

As for new technology development at TSMC, I'd like to start with -- to update you our 7-nanometer development.

至於台積電的新技術開發，我想先介紹一下我們的 7 納米開發。

We have started our 7-nanometer technology development program early last year.

去年初，我們已經啟動了 7 納米技術開發計劃。

We also have rolled out our 7-nanometer design and technology collaboration activity with several of our major customers.

我們還與幾家主要客戶開展了 7 納米設計和技術合作活動。

Our 7-nanometer technology developments today are well in progress.

我們今天的 7 納米技術開發進展順利。

TSMC's 7-nanometer technology will leverage most of the tools used in 10-nanometer, in the meantime achieve a new generation of technology value to our customers.

台積電的 7 納米技術將利用 10 納米中使用的大部分工具，同時為我們的客戶實現新一代的技術價值。

The 7-nanometer technology risk production date is targeted at early 2017.

7納米技術風險生產日期定在2017年初。

Now I would like to give you an update on EUV.

現在我想給大家介紹一下 EUV 的最新情況。

We have been making steady progress on EUV.

我們在 EUV 方面一直在穩步推進。

Both our development tools, we have two NXE 3300 have been upgraded to the configuration of 80 watt of EUV power, with an average wafer throughput of a few hundred wafers per day.

我們的兩個開發工具，我們有兩台NXE 3300已經升級到配置80瓦的EUV功率，平均每天能生產幾百片晶圓。

We continue to work with ASML to improve tool stability and availability.

我們將繼續與 ASML 合作，以提高工具的穩定性和可用性。

We also are working with ASML and our partners on developing the infrastructure of EUV, such as masks and resists.

我們還與 ASML 和我們的合作夥伴合作開發 EUV 的基礎設施，例如掩模和抗蝕劑。

Although today the process on record of both 10-nanometers and 7-nanometer are on immersion tools, with innovative multiple patterning techniques, we will continue to look for opportunity to further reduce the wafer cost and simplify the process flow by inserting EUV layer in the process.

儘管今天記錄在案的 10 納米和 7 納米工藝都在浸沒式工具上，但採用創新的多重圖案化技術，我們將繼續尋找機會，通過將 EUV 層插入到過程。

Now I'd like to give you an update of our recently announced ultra-low-power technologies.

現在，我想向您介紹我們最近宣布的超低功耗技術的最新情況。

We have offered the industry's most comprehensive ultra-low-power technology portfolio, ranging from 55-nanometer ULP, 40-nanometer ULP, 28-nanometer ULP, to the recently announced 16 FFC, a compact version of 16 FinFET Plus, enable continual reduction of operating voltage and power consumption.

我們提供了業界最全面的超低功耗技術組合，從 55 納米 ULP、40 納米 ULP、28 納米 ULP 到最近發布的 16 FFC，即 16 FinFET Plus 的緊湊型版本，可實現持續減少工作電壓和功耗。

Today more than 30 product tape-outs planned in 2015 from more than 25 customers.

如今，超過 25 家客戶計劃在 2015 年進行 30 多種產品流片。

This 55- and 40-nanometer ULP will be the most cost-effective solution for low- to mid-performance wearable and IoT devices.

這種 55 和 40 納米的 ULP 將成為中低性能可穿戴設備和物聯網設備最具成本效益的解決方案。

The 28 ULP and 16 FFC will be the most power-efficient solution for high-performance IoT applications.

28 ULP 和 16 FFC 將成為高性能物聯網應用的最節能解決方案。

In particular, our 16 FFC offers the ultra-low-power operation at a supply voltage of 0.55 volts, with higher performance than all of the FD-SOI technologies marketed today.

特別是，我們的 16 FFC 在 0.55 伏的電源電壓下提供超低功耗運行，其性能高於目前市場上所有的 FD-SOI 技術。

Lastly I'll give you an update of our recent IoT specialty technology development.

最後，我將向您介紹我們最近的物聯網專業技術發展情況。

We have developed the world's first 1.0-micron pixel size 16-megapixel CMOS image sensor, with stacked image signal processor, which was announced in March by our customer for the next-generation smartphone.

我們開發了世界上第一個 1.0 微米像素大小的 16 兆像素 CMOS 圖像傳感器，具有堆疊圖像信號處理器，我們的客戶於 3 月宣布用於下一代智能手機。

Secondly, we continue to drive the best low resistance in BCD technology roadmap, from 0.18 micron to 0.13 micron and from 8-inch to 12-inch production for wireless charging and fast wired charging of mobile devices.

其次，我們繼續推動 BCD 技術路線圖中的最佳低電阻，從 0.18 微米到 0.13 微米，從 8 英寸到 12 英寸的生產，用於移動設備的無線充電和快速有線充電。

We continue to extend our 0.13 BCD technology from consumer and industrial applications to automotive-grade electrical system control applications.

我們繼續將我們的 0.13 BCD 技術從消費和工業應用擴展到汽車級電氣系統控制應用。

Lastly, recently we have started production in foundry's first 40-nanometer industrial embedded Flash technology that was started from November last year.

最後，最近我們已經開始生產代工廠的第一個 40 納米工業嵌入式閃存技術，該技術是從去年 11 月開始的。

And this technology recently passed automotive-grade qualification, that was in March, for engine control applications.

這項技術最近在 3 月份通過了用於發動機控制應用的汽車級認證。

That was my update of new technology.

那是我對新技術的更新。

Now I'll hand the podium to C.C.

現在我會把領獎台交給 C.C.

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

I will update you the 28-nanometer, 20 and 16 FinFET status and also our InFO business.

我將為您更新 28 納米、20 和 16 FinFET 的狀態以及我們的 InFO 業務。

First, 28-nanometer.

首先，28納米。

This is the fifth year since TSMC's 28-nanometer entered mass production.

這是台積電28納米進入量產的第五年。

28-nanometer has been a very large and successful node for us.

28 納米對我們來說是一個非常大且成功的節點。

Our market segment share at this node has held up well and is in the mid-70s this year.

我們在這個節點的細分市場份額保持良好，今年處於 70 年代中期。

We expect this to continue in year 2016.

我們預計這種情況將在 2016 年繼續。

In comparison, this is better than what we had in the 40-nanometer node.

相比之下，這比我們在 40 納米節點中的要好。

The demand for 28-nanometer is expected to grow this year due to the growth of mid- and low-end smartphones and as well as the second-wave segment, such as radio frequency, circuit product and the Flash controllers that migrate into this node.

由於中低端智能手機的增長以及第二波領域，如射頻、電路產品和閃存控制器遷移到這個節點，預計今年對 28 納米的需求將增長.

However, due to some customers' inventory adjustments, which we believe is only going to be for the short term, the demand for 28-nanometer in the second quarter will be lower than our previous quarter, resulting in 28-nanometer capacity utilization rate to be in the high-80s range.

然而，由於部分客戶的庫存調整，我們認為這只是短期的，第二季度對 28 納米的需求將低於我們上一季度，導致 28 納米的產能利用率在 80 年代高的範圍內。

But we expect the utilization rate of the 28-nanometer to recover soon and to be above 90% in the second half of this year.

但我們預計28納米的利用率將很快恢復，並在今年下半年達到90%以上。

While we are in the mass production, we also continue to improve the performance of our technology.

在量產的同時，我們也在不斷改進我們的技術性能。

Last year we have introduced our 28-HPC, which is a compact version of 28-HPM.

去年我們推出了 28-HPC，它是 28-HPM 的緊湊版本。

For the purpose of helping 64-bit CPU conversion for mid- to low-end market, this year we further improved the 28-HPC to 28-HPC Plus.

為了幫助中低端市場的64位CPU轉換，今年我們將28-HPC進一步改進為28-HPC Plus。

For comparison, 28-HPC Plus will have 18% power consumption -- lower power consumption at the same speed or 15% faster speed at the same kind of power.

相比之下，28-HPC Plus 將有 18% 的功耗——在相同速度下功耗更低或在相同功率下速度提高 15%。

As for the competitive position, we are confident that we will continue to lead in performance and yield.

至於競爭地位，我們有信心在性能和產量上繼續領先。

So far we do not see there is a very much effective capacity in High K metal gate at 28-nanometer outside TSMC.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到台積電以外的 28 納米高 K 金屬柵極有非常有效的容量。

And since we have already shipped more than 3m 12-inch 28-nanometer wafers, the learning curve has given us an absolute advantage in cost.

而且由於我們已經出貨了超過 300 萬片 12 英寸 28 納米的晶圓，學習曲線讓我們在成本上具有絕對優勢。

Now let me move to our 20 SoC.

現在讓我轉到我們的 20 SoC。

TSMC remains the sole solution provider in foundry industry for 20-nanometer process.

台積電仍然是代工行業唯一的 20 納米工藝解決方案供應商。

Our yield has been consistently good after a very successful ramp last year.

在去年非常成功的爬坡之後，我們的產量一直很好。

But recently we have observed customers' planned schedule for product migration from 20 nanometer to 16 FinFET started sooner than we forecasted three months ago.

但最近我們觀察到客戶計劃的從 20 納米到 16 納米 FinFET 的產品遷移計劃比我們三個月前預測的要早。

As a result, even we continue to grow 20-nanometer business in the second quarter of this year, our earlier forecast of 20-nanometer contributing above 20% of total wafer revenue this year has to be revised down by a few points to a level about the mid teens.

因此，即使我們在今年第二季度繼續增長 20 納米業務，我們之前對 20 納米貢獻今年晶圓總收入 20% 以上的預測也不得不下調幾個百分點至大約十幾歲。

That being the case, we still forecast the revenue from 20-nanometer will more than double that of year 2014's level.

在這種情況下，我們仍然預測 20 納米的收入將比 2014 年的水平增加一倍以上。

Now 16 FinFET.

現在有 16 個 FinFET。

The schedule for 16 FinFET high-volume production remains unchanged.

16 FinFET 大批量生產的時間表保持不變。

We will begin ramping in the third quarter this year.

我們將在今年第三季度開始加速。

And the ramp rate appeared be faster than we forecasted three months ago, thanks to the excellent yield learning that we can leverage our 20-nanometer experience and also due to a faster migration from 20-nanometer to 16 FinFET.

斜坡速率似乎比我們三個月前的預測要快，這要歸功於我們可以利用我們的 20 納米經驗的出色良率學習，以及從 20 納米到 16 納米的更快遷移。

In addition to good yield, our 16 FinFET device performance also met all products' specs due to our very good transistor engineering.

除了良好的良率外，我們的 16 FinFET 器件性能也符合所有產品的規格，這得益於我們非常出色的晶體管工程。

So we believe our 16 FinFET will be a very long-life node due to its good performance and the right cost.

因此，我們相信我們的 16 FinFET 將是一個非常長壽命的節點，因為它具有良好的性能和合適的成本。

This is very similar to our 28-nanometer node.

這與我們的 28 納米節點非常相似。

We are highly confident that our 16 FinFET is very competitive.

我們非常有信心我們的 16 FinFET 非常具有競爭力。

As we've said repeatedly, combining 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer, we will have the largest foundry share in year 2015.

正如我們反复說過的，結合 20 納米和 16 納米，我們將在 2015 年擁有最大的代工份額。

And if we only look at 16-nanometer alone, we still can say TSMC will have the largest 16- or 14-nanometer foundry share in year 2016.

如果我們只看 16 納米，我們仍然可以說台積電將在 2016 年擁有最大的 16 或 14 納米代工份額。

Now let me move to our InFO business update.

現在讓我轉到我們的 InFO 業務更新。

The schedule to ramp up the InFO in second quarter next year remains unchanged.

明年第二季度增加 InFO 的時間表保持不變。

We expect InFO will contribute more than $100m quarterly revenue by next year, fourth quarter next year, when it will be fully ramped.

我們預計，到明年第四季度，InFO 將貢獻超過 1 億美元的季度收入，屆時它將全面提升。

Right now we are building a new facility in Longtan, that's a city very near to Hsinchu, where our headquarters are, for ramping up InFO.

現在我們正在龍潭建設一個新設施，龍潭是一個非常靠近我們總部所在地新竹的城市，用於增加 InFO。

Today a small product line is almost complete and it's ready for early engineering experiment.

今天，一條小型產品線已基本完成，可以進行早期工程實驗。

This pilot line will be expanded to accommodate the high-volume ramp in year 2016.

這條試驗線將擴大，以適應 2016 年的大容量斜坡。

And that's all.

就這樣。

Thank you for your attendance.

感謝您的出席。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements.

謝謝你，C.C.我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time, so to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制為兩個，以便讓所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate that to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and then 1 on your telephone keypad now.

對於那些正在通話的人，如果您想提出問題，請現在按電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按 1。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press the pound or the hash key.

如果您想在任何時候將自己從提問隊列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Our first question comes from -- I see Andrew first, so Barclays, Andrew Lu.

我們的第一個問題來自——我首先看到的是 Andrew，然後是 Barclays，Andrew Lu。

Thank you, Mark and C.C. Wei and Lora.

謝謝你，馬克和 C.C.魏和洛拉。

I have a couple of questions.

我有一些問題。

Thank you, Dr. Sun, because I haven't picked as the first one for a very, very long time.

謝謝你，孫博士，因為我已經很久沒有選第一個了。

Earlier C.C. Wei mentioned 16 FinFET ramp-up was faster than earlier expected a few months ago.

早期的C.C. Wei 提到 16 FinFET 的增長速度比幾個月前的預期要快。

So can you give us some color on the revenue contribution by Q4?

那麼你能給我們一些關於第四季度收入貢獻的顏色嗎？

I suppose it should be also a few percentage points higher than a few months ago.

我想它也應該比幾個月前高幾個百分點。

I think earlier guidance is 9%, high single digit for Q4 revenue contribution from 16 FinFET.

我認為早期的指導是 9%，16 FinFET 對第四季度收入貢獻的高個位數。

Andrew, I think you already answered the question by yourself, a few percentage more.

安德魯，我想你已經自己回答了這個問題，還有幾個百分點。

So no precise number, like 12% or 15% or something like that?

所以沒有精確的數字，比如 12% 或 15% 之類的？

That's too specific.

這太具體了。

Okay.

好的。

My second question for Mark.

我對馬克的第二個問題。

I think Mark presented at the Technology Symposium in San Jose mentioned that 16 FinFET versus competing technology is about 10% performance better.

我認為 Mark 在聖何塞舉行的技術研討會上提到，與競爭技術相比，16 FinFET 的性能提高了約 10%。

So can you elaborate what's 10% performance better?

那麼你能詳細說明什麼是 10% 的性能更好嗎？

If our die size is larger than our competitors, how can we get the 10% performance better?

如果我們的裸片尺寸比我們的競爭對手大，我們如何才能更好地獲得 10% 的性能？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In the conference we talked about 16 FinFET Plus.

在會議中，我們談到了 16 FinFET Plus。

That is our second-generation FinFET transistor.

那就是我們的第二代 FinFET 晶體管。

In that we improved our transistor performance a great deal.

在那我們大大提高了我們的晶體管性能。

According to our information, that transistor speed, talk about speed at fixed power, is higher than the competitor by 10%.

根據我們的信息，晶體管速度，即固定功率下的速度，比競爭對手高 10%。

That's what I meant.

我正是這個意思。

So how?

又怎樣？

Because of the transistor?

因為晶體管？

Yes, the transistor structure, transistor engineering.

是的，晶體管結構，晶體管工程。

Compared to competing -- is the competing the current competitor's solution or the next-generation competitor's solution?

與競爭相比——競爭是當前競爭對手的解決方案還是下一代競爭對手的解決方案？

For example, LPE versus LPP or something like that?

例如，LPE 與 LPP 之類的？

The fastest one.

最快的一個。

The fastest.

最快的。

Their best one?

他們最好的一個？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next question will go to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Dan Heyler.

下一個問題將交給美銀美林的丹·海勒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Elizabeth.

謝謝，伊麗莎白。

So a couple of quick questions.

所以幾個快速的問題。

Congratulations on the 16-nanometer success and faster yield ramp than previously planned.

祝賀 16 納米的成功和比之前計劃的更快的產量提升。

As you go to convert your 20 capacity to 16 due to those better yields, I guess two parts to the question.

由於這些更好的產量，當您將 20 容量轉換為 16 時，我想這個問題有兩個部分。

What's the implication on margin as you're converting a fab from -- I know you do this a lot, but this is a big transition with limited products.

當您從晶圓廠轉換時對利潤率有什麼影響——我知道您經常這樣做，但這是一個產品有限的重大轉變。

So as you're going from 20 to 16, what are the implications on margin?

所以當你從 20 到 16 時，對保證金有什麼影響？

Can you -- do you take maybe one-quarter hit on margin before you get back to trend?

你能 - 在你回到趨勢之前你可能會遭受四分之一的利潤損失嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Dan, I will firstly talk about the implication for CapEx, probably that's the more important which will lead to the margin in a later stage.

丹，我將首先談談對資本支出的影響，這可能是更重要的，這將導致後期的利潤率。

You know conversions, it costs less than adding new capacity.

您知道轉換，它的成本低於增加新容量。

So when we see a node need to be converted, if we can do it faster, that means we can spend less CapEx.

因此，當我們看到一個節點需要轉換時，如果我們能更快地做到這一點，這意味著我們可以花費更少的資本支出。

That's actually how this $1b reduction coming from.

這實際上就是減少 1b 美元的原因。

In terms of margin, actually it has multiple factors.

就利潤率而言，實際上它有多種因素。

Depreciation, of course, being number one.

折舊當然是第一位的。

Other thing is how fast can you bring up your yield and how does economic scale get into play.

另一件事是您能以多快的速度提高產量以及經濟規模如何發揮作用。

So from what we have seen right now, we believe the 16-nanometer margin will begin better than our 20-nanometer margin because we have the basis of 20-nanometer.

因此，從我們現在看到的情況來看，我們相信 16 納米的裕度將比我們的 20 納米的裕度開始更好，因為我們有 20 納米的基礎。

So as we have said many times, we don't want to separate 20 versus 16 and always -- you guys always ask 20 margin and 16 margin separately.

因此，正如我們多次說過的，我們不想將 20 與 16 分開，而且總是——你們總是分別詢問 20 和 16 的保證金。

So I would say if we combine 16 and 20 margin, it will be a pretty good progress.

所以我想說，如果我們結合 16 和 20 邊距，這將是一個相當不錯的進步。

And we have seen 20 has progressed quite well and 16 will be even better.

我們已經看到 20 個進展非常好，16 個會更好。

So although this 20 plus 16 will still have some small dilution to TSMC in the year in 2015 and 2016, for 2015 maybe 2 to 3 percentage point, in 2016 will be 1 to 2 percentage points, but we are targeting to achieve corporate level margin by year 2017.

所以雖然這個 20+16 在 2015 年和 2016 年仍然對台積電有一些小幅稀釋，2015 年可能是 2 到 3 個百分點，2016 年將是 1 到 2 個百分點，但我們的目標是實現企業級利潤率到 2017 年。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And then just as a quick follow-up on that, does 20-nanometer still grow from its lower level in the first quarter sequentially?

然後作為對此的快速跟進，20 納米是否仍會從第一季度的較低水平繼續增長？

Will it -- in absolute dollar terms, can you maintain the current level throughout the year?

它會 - 以絕對美元計算，你能在全年保持目前的水平嗎？

I think you've implied that in your guidance.

我想你已經在你的指導中暗示了這一點。

I think you said mid-single digit, just to confirm that.

我想你說的是中個位數，只是為了確認這一點。

And is that throughout the year?

全年都是這樣嗎？

Does 20 stay at about 15% of revenue throughout the year?

20 是否全年保持在收入的 15% 左右？

Dan, would you please repeat your question again?

丹，你能再重複一遍你的問題嗎？

Do you think 20-nanometer will remain at the current revenue level throughout the year?

你認為 20 納米會在全年保持目前的收入水平嗎？

Given that some customers are not successful in 20 products and maybe didn't succeed and some customers are more successful.

鑑於有些客戶在 20 種產品中沒有成功，可能沒有成功，有些客戶更成功。

So if you put everything together, I'm wondering if 20 stays at the current revenue level.

因此，如果您將所有內容放在一起，我想知道 20 是否保持在當前的收入水平。

In my statement I say that contributing 20% revenue cannot hold because of our customers' demand.

在我的聲明中，我說由於我們客戶的需求，貢獻 20% 的收入是無法維持的。

But I also say that second quarter we continue to increase the 20-nanometer business, so that means in the second half, no, we cannot maintain that same level of business.

但我也說第二季度我們繼續增加 20 納米業務，所以這意味著在下半年，不，我們不能保持同樣的業務水平。

In dollar terms.

以美元計。

In dollar terms.

以美元計。

Okay, cannot.

好吧，不能。

Okay.

好的。

And then my second question is relating to 20-nanometer.

然後我的第二個問題與 20 納米有關。

Here you certainly have a lot of growth in 16, with customers taping out aggressively, especially next year.

在這裡，您肯定在 16 年有很大的增長，客戶會積極地流片，尤其是明年。

Given your high share at 28, how do you keep 28 full?

鑑於你在 28 歲時的高份額，你如何保持 28 歲？

You obviously have a lot of technology there.

你顯然有很多技術在那裡。

Customers will move forward.

客戶將繼續前進。

So I'm wondering, could you elaborate on new areas that are actually creating new demand at 28, such that you can continue to grow 28 next year.

所以我想知道，您能否詳細說明在 28 歲時實際創造新需求的新領域，以便明年您可以繼續增長 28 歲。

And do you think you can grow?

你認為你能成長嗎？

I think previously you said maybe hold it at current levels even with 16 growing.

我認為您之前說過，即使有 16 個增長，也可能將其保持在當前水平。

So just maybe revisit that question.

所以也許重新審視這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

To answer the question, I think the high-end smartphone will move to 16 FinFET.

要回答這個問題，我認為高端智能手機將轉向 16 FinFET。

However, the mid- to -- and lower-end smartphones will stay in the 28-nanometer because that's very cost effective.

然而，中低端智能手機將停留在 28 納米，因為這非常划算。

And mid- and low-end smartphone continues to grow significantly.

中低端智能手機繼續顯著增長。

So that will give a very strong demand on 28-nanometer.

因此，這將對 28 納米產生非常強烈的需求。

In addition, we still have a second-wave product, like RF and Flash controller, as I use as an example, move into 28-nanometer.

此外，我們還有第二波產品，如 RF 和 Flash 控制器，正如我使用的例子，進入 28 納米。

So summing it up, I think the 28-nanometer's demand continue to grow while we move into the 16 FinFET for high-end smartphone.

綜上所述，我認為 28 納米的需求會繼續增長，而我們會轉向高端智能手機的 16 FinFET。

Excellent.

出色的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And is there an element of -- as you add value on 28-nanometer -- as you add value, is there an element of being able to hold pricing there because it's an old node and all the old nodes face pricing pressure.

是否有一個元素 - 當你在 28 納米上增加價值時 - 當你增加價值時，是否有一個元素能夠在那裡保持定價，因為它是一個舊節點並且所有舊節點都面臨定價壓力。

And I think we get a lot of questions from investors on old nodes getting pricing pressure.

而且我認為我們從投資者那裡收到了很多關於舊節點受到定價壓力的問題。

But at the same time you're adding a lot of value there.

但與此同時，你在那裡增加了很多價值。

So maybe give us a little bit of sense of the 28-nanometer kind of pricing environment next year.

所以也許讓我們對明年的 28 納米定價環境有一點了解。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All I can say is we remain more competitive -- very competitive in our value proposition.

我只能說我們仍然更具競爭力——在我們的價值主張上非常有競爭力。

That gives you some idea about the capacity support, the yield and performance and also including pricing.

這讓您對容量支持、產量和性能以及定價有了一些了解。

But all combined together, we are better than the competitor.

但綜合起來，我們比競爭對手更好。

All right.

好的。

Next the questions will be coming from Deutsche Bank's Michael Chou.

接下來的問題將來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Hi.

你好。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

First one is for EUV.

第一個是EUV。

As Mark has highlighted your EUV program, Does that imply you may consider using EUV in the second stage of your 16-nanometer -- 10-nanometer ramp-up, potentially in 2018 or 2019?

正如 Mark 強調的你的 EUV 計劃，這是否意味著你可能會考慮在 16 納米的第二階段使用 EUV - 10 納米加速，可能在 2018 年或 2019 年？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes, we always look for opportunity to insert EUV in both 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer.

是的，我們一直在尋找機會在 10 納米和 7 納米中插入 EUV。

The EUV technology provides not only some cost benefit, but also simplify the process.

EUV 技術不僅提供了一些成本優勢，而且還簡化了工藝。

That means you can replace multiple layers with one layer that helps your yield improvement.

這意味著您可以用一層替換多層，這有助於提高產量。

So there's opportunity both in quality and cost always exist so long as EUV's productivity comes to the threshold point.

因此，只要 EUV 的生產力達到臨界點，質量和成本上的機會總是存在的。

And in -- as you noticed on 10-nanometer, our capacity build will largely done in 2016 and 2017.

在——正如你在 10 納米上註意到的那樣，我們的能力建設將在 2016 年和 2017 年主要完成。

So 2018 will be inserted, if inserted, will be combined with some other tools upgrade, some tool upgrade to 7, for example, and replaced by the EUV tools.

所以2018會插入，如果插入的話，會結合其他一些工具升級，比如一些工具升級到7，換成EUV工具。

In that node it will not be a fresh capacity build with EUV at that time because that's a little bit late in the schedule for the 10.

在那個節點上，那時它不會是 EUV 的新產能建設，因為這在 10 的時間表上有點晚了。

7-nanometer, of course it will be higher probability adopting EUV.

7納米，當然採用EUV的概率會更高。

And the benefit will be bigger because the 7-nanometer has a lot of multiple layers, quadruple, even multiple patterning layers, thus EUV can be more effective in reducing the cost and improve the yield, for example.

並且好處會更大，因為 7 納米有很多多層、四層甚至多個圖案化層，因此 EUV 可以更有效地降低成本和提高良率等。

So that's our current status.

這就是我們目前的狀態。

But today EUV is still in the engineering mode.

但今天 EUV 仍處於工程模式。

The productivity, as you heard, will still have some gaps for practical insertion of the technology.

正如您所聽到的，生產力對於實際插入該技術仍有一些差距。

So we're still working on that, in that mode.

所以我們仍在努力，以這種模式。

And we have -- although we have one-day performance up to 1,000 wafer per day, but I was talking about average still a few hundreds.

而且我們有 - 雖然我們一天的性能高達每天 1,000 片晶圓，但我所說的平均仍然是幾百片。

And we need to get to more than 1,000 to consider a schedule to put it into the production.

我們需要達到 1,000 多個才能考慮將其投入生產的時間表。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Second question is regarding the outlook by segment.

第二個問題是關於分部的前景。

That's for CFO.

那是給首席財務官的。

Outlook by segment in Q2.

第二季度按細分市場劃分的展望。

Q2?

Q2？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Q2, I have just said, there will be 7% to 8% decline.

Q2，我剛才說了，會有7%到8%的下降。

I think mainly it's in -- from communications segment.

我認為主要是來自通信領域。

As you can see in my presentation, communication, industrial and standard, both segments constitute about 80% of TSMC revenue.

正如你在我的演講中看到的那樣，通信、工業和標準，這兩個部分佔台積電收入的 80% 左右。

So the decline mainly come from those two segments.

所以下降主要來自這兩個部分。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next we will -- the questions will be coming from UBS, Eric Chen.

接下來我們將 - 問題將來自瑞銀，Eric Chen。

Hi, Mark, C.C. Wei, Lora and Elizabeth.

嗨，馬克，C.C.魏、勞拉和伊麗莎白。

Okay.

好的。

My first question probably go to Lora regarding to the CapEx.

我的第一個問題可能是關於資本支出的 Lora。

You just mentioned we cut the CapEx by $1b but we will maintain our capacity schedule.

您剛剛提到我們將資本支出削減了 1 億美元，但我們將維持產能計劃。

How about for the 28-nanometer process in terms of the capacity, in terms of the CapEx for the 28-nanometer process?

就容量而言，28 納米工藝的資本支出如何？28 納米工藝的資本支出如何？

The schedule is going to change?

日程會變嗎？

We only spent very little money on 28, especially in the first half, to add capacity.

我們只花了很少的錢在 28 上，特別是在上半年，以增加容量。

In addition to that then we have continued productivity improvements.

除此之外，我們還不斷提高生產力。

So on overall year, 28 capacity will still grow.

因此，總體而言，28 容量仍將增長。

How many percent year-on-year growth are we talking about?

我們所說的同比增長率是多少？

Well I will not specify the percentage, but it's still growing with the combination of both.

好吧，我不會指定百分比，但它仍然隨著兩者的結合而增長。

Okay.

好的。

To maintain the original schedule, right?

保持原來的時間表，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

How about the depreciation growth given we cut the $1b CapEx?

考慮到我們削減了 1b 美元的資本支出，折舊增長如何？

I think I have said in last quarter we expect total depreciation will be -- increase will be around 20%.

我想我在上個季度說過，我們預計總折舊將 - 增長將在 20% 左右。

With this $1b cut down, the increase will be in high teens, will not be 20%.

隨著這 1b 美元的減少，增長將是十幾歲，不會是 20%。

Okay.

好的。

High teens.

高十幾歲。

Okay.

好的。

The other question probably go to Mark or C.C. Wei regarding to the -- our investment in China.

另一個問題可能是 Mark 或 C.C.魏關於——我們在中國的投資。

Any update or any improvement or any logic behind?

任何更新或任何改進或背後的任何邏輯？

And some newspaper talk about we would like to build a fab of our own.

一些報紙說我們想建立自己的晶圓廠。

So any strategy behind?

那麼背後有什麼策略嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Let me take this one.

讓我拿這個。

Okay.

好的。

You know we have an 8-inch fab and it's running very well in Shanghai and it's making profit.

你知道我們有一個 8 英寸的晶圓廠，它在上海運行得很好，並且正在盈利。

And we are growing our China business quite nicely in the past few years.

在過去的幾年裡，我們的中國業務發展得非常好。

Now it accounts about 5% of TSMC revenue.

現在它約佔台積電收入的5%。

We have seen a very big -- a few big, very big fabless company engaging with TSMC more closely.

我們已經看到一家非常大的——一些非常大的無晶圓廠公司與台積電進行了更密切的合作。

And we have sales office in the north part, the middle part and southern part of China.

並在華北、華中、華南設有銷售辦事處。

So we are participating the China's growth.

所以我們正在參與中國的發展。

And we will continue to participate the growth in the future.

我們將繼續參與未來的增長。

Okay.

好的。

How about the capacity growth for like 8-inch fab in China?

中國8英寸晶圓廠的產能增長情況如何？

We are aggressively evaluating what's the best way for us to do it.

我們正在積極評估什麼是我們做到這一點的最佳方式。

Okay.

好的。

And on your evaluation, what kind of geometry you have put as first priority for your 8-inch fab in China?

在您的評估中，您將哪種幾何形狀作為您在中國的 8 英寸晶圓廠的首要任務？

It's probably too detailed.

應該是太詳細了吧

We are still evaluating.

我們仍在評估中。

We will let you know when we have a better picture.

當我們有更好的圖片時，我們會通知您。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next we will ask Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams, for questions.

接下來，我們將向瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯提出問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The first question, I want to ask about the duration of the pullback because second quarter you're seeing the issue from mobile, but inventory exiting near normal levels.

第一個問題，我想問一下回調的持續時間，因為第二季度你從移動設備上看到了問題，但庫存接近正常水平。

And so to what extent do you see a speed-up in second half?

那麼，您認為下半年會在多大程度上加速？

And as you go to fourth quarter, how broad is the customer base?

當您進入第四季度時，客戶群有多大？

Is it a single key product or are you seeing broadening out of 16 FinFET as you ramp that in fourth quarter?

它是一個單一的關鍵產品，還是隨著您在第四季度的增加，您看到 16 個 FinFET 的擴展？

The question -- the second-quarter schedule delay is we see in the mobile product area in several of our customers, so it's not one single customer.

問題——第二季度的計劃延遲是我們在移動產品領域的幾個客戶中看到的，所以不是一個客戶。

But of course there is one single customer impact the most, which is last year to the captive IDMs.

但當然有一個客戶影響最大，那就是去年對專屬 IDM 的影響。

As for the second half, we think, first of all, the inventory adjustment will largely complete towards the end of second quarter.

至於下半年，我們認為，首先，庫存調整將在二季度末基本完成。

We think the end market of smartphone is still healthy growth this year.

我們認為今年智能手機終端市場仍將保持健康增長。

Therefore the second half will resume the growth.

因此下半年將恢復增長。

And, more importantly, our 16 FinFET technology will start to ramp in the second half.

而且，更重要的是，我們的 16 FinFET 技術將在下半年開始量產。

So that will contribute a lot of growth, more than the 20-nanometer shipment reduction.

因此，這將貢獻很大的增長，超過 20 納米出貨量的減少。

So those two factors.

所以這兩個因素。

Okay.

好的。

And the follow-up question, and I'll ask on the 16, if that's multiple customers contributing this year or if it's a single key product.

還有一個後續問題，我會在 16 日問，這是今年有多個客戶做出貢獻，還是單個關鍵產品。

But the second question I wanted to ask about the internalized silicon, one of the impacts was the -- it's well known now that Samsung ramping up with more of its own silicon.

但我想問的第二個問題是關於內部化矽的，其中一個影響是——現在眾所周知，三星正在增加更多自己的矽。

If you could talk about how much is that impact versus the broader smartphone weakness in inventory.

如果您可以談論與更廣泛的智能手機庫存疲軟相比，這種影響有多大。

And as you look forward, do you see that risk staying with you as far as Samsung, Intel internalizing silicon, the ways you can prevent that or mitigate that risk?

正如您所期待的那樣，您是否認為三星、英特爾將芯片內部化以及您可以預防或減輕風險的方式與您同在？

Well we definitely see the impact on second quarter, yes.

好吧，我們肯定會看到對第二季度的影響，是的。

But as far as the future, how that internal captive portion will take away from the foundry, it's really hard to say because each product, they always have some competition considerations.

但就未來而言，內部的俘虜部分如何從代工廠中拿走，真的很難說，因為每個產品，他們總是有一些競爭考慮。

So -- but we are on the -- and also this year the two big smartphone sells very well and that squeezed the Android non-Samsung on non-Apple phones at this point.

所以 - 但我們在 - 今年這兩款大型智能手機銷量非常好，這在這一點上擠壓了非蘋果手機上的非三星安卓系統。

But that part I think will recover.

但我認為那部分會恢復。

This is probably a competitive -- competition status in the -- for the period of time only.

這大概是一種競爭——競爭狀態中——的一段時間而已。

So -- but we know that we do not compete with our customers.

所以——但我們知道我們不與客戶競爭。

So the relationship with us and our customer to build the best product to compete is still the best solution seen by many of our customers.

因此，與我們和我們的客戶建立最佳競爭產品的關係仍然是我們許多客戶看到的最佳解決方案。

And that is we are continuing to work on.

那就是我們正在繼續努力。

And so we will try to produce the best product with our customer to compete.

所以我們將努力生產最好的產品與我們的客戶競爭。

All right.

好的。

Next one in line actually is Citi's Roland Shu.

下一位實際上是花旗的 Roland Shu。

Thank you, Elizabeth, Mark, C.C. and Lora.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白，馬克，C.C.和勞拉。

My first question is on given the fast ramp of 16-nanometer, so are we going to see meaningful revenue contribution for 16 in 3Q?

我的第一個問題是考慮到 16 納米的快速增長，那麼我們是否會在第三季度看到 16 的有意義的收入貢獻？

We ramp up in third quarter this year, but it's many layers of process, plus about one month is back-end.

我們在今年第三季度開始加速，但這是多層流程，加上大約一個月是後端。

So in 3Q we expect just the revenue just very minimum.

所以在第三季度，我們預計收入只是非常低。

Okay.

好的。

But we will start reporting 16-nanometer revenue from 3Q?

但是我們會從第三季度開始報告 16 納米的收入嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And with this faster ramp on 16-nanometer, so how do you think about your 16-nanometer overall market share this year?

隨著 16 納米的快速增長，您如何看待今年 16 納米的整體市場份額？

Are we going to see a bigger market share than our major competitor on the 16-nanometer this year?

今年我們會在 16 納米上看到比我們的主要競爭對手更大的市場份額嗎？

I only can say that it's better than we expected.

我只能說它比我們預期的要好。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And my second question is Intel cut CapEx this year, and also we are talking about -- we are also lower CapEx spending by $1b by converting more 20-nanometer to 16-nanometer.

我的第二個問題是英特爾今年削減了資本支出，我們也在談論——通過將更多的 20 納米轉換為 16 納米，我們還將資本支出降低了 10 億美元。

And I think this is ASML also today, they also say this is a rising trend to convert the N+1 node to N-1 -- N-1 to N+1 going forward.

我認為這也是今天的 ASML，他們還說這是將 N+1 節點轉換為 N-1 的上升趨勢——N-1 到 N+1 的未來。

So the question is will this trend continue whether or not this year CapEx spending is peaking out in the near term to TSMC, the overall CapEx spending?

所以問題是這種趨勢是否會持續下去，無論今年資本支出是否在短期內達到台積電的頂峰，即整體資本支出？

Because I didn't -- Mark also said for 7-nanometer we probably are also going to need similar tool as 10-nanometer as well.

因為我沒有——馬克還說，對於 7 納米，我們可能也需要與 10 納米類似的工具。

So with this continue tool conversion, whether or not the CapEx spending is peaking out this year.

因此，隨著這種持續的工具轉換，無論資本支出是否在今年達到頂峰。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

It's probably too early to say that, peaking out, because we are still ramping our 16-nanometer and we're going to spend more money next year in 16.

現在說達到頂峰可能還為時過早，因為我們仍在加速 16 納米，明年我們將在 16 年花更多的錢。

Go above 7 nanometer and we will continue to spend money.

超過 7 納米，我們將繼續花錢。

So I won't say it's peaking up for now.

所以我不會說它現在達到頂峰。

Okay.

好的。

So how about the capital intensity?

那麼資本密集度如何呢？

What's the longer-term view or target for the capital intensity?

資本密集度的長期觀點或目標是什麼？

What I can say now is capital intensity came down from previous year close to 50% to a 40% range.

我現在可以說的是資本密集度從去年的近 50% 下降到 40% 的範圍。

And at least for now I can see we will at the 40% range.

至少現在我可以看到我們將在 40% 的範圍內。

But more specific will have to be wait for later time.

但更具體的將不得不等待以後的時間。

All right.

好的。

Also in the order of questions received, I have to go to Morgan Stanley's Bill Lu.

同樣按照收到問題的順序，我必須去摩根士丹利的比爾盧。

Yes.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

This is a follow-up to Randy's question.

這是蘭迪問題的後續。

But I'm going to go over some numbers with you first before I ask the question, which is we did the math.

但在我問這個問題之前，我會先和你一起討論一些數字，我們做了數學計算。

I don't think these are exactly right.

我認為這些都不完全正確。

But over the last five years we've got IDM zero growth, fabless 8%, but system houses above 20%, right.

但在過去五年中，我們的 IDM 增長率為零，無晶圓廠增長率為 8%，但係統房屋增長率超過 20%，對吧。

So system houses, I'm excluding memory, just the system LSI, the logic portion.

所以系統房屋，我不包括內存，只是系統 LSI，邏輯部分。

I think that might be slightly conservative.

我認為這可能有點保守。

Now that's a pretty big change.

現在這是一個相當大的變化。

And I'm wondering how you should think about that, how you should -- if you look at TSMC addressing the system houses versus the fabless customers, if you look at, for example, your market share, if you look at your margin for the system houses versus the fabless, how do you think about that?

我想知道你應該如何考慮，你應該如何——如果你看看台積電解決系統廠商與無晶圓客戶的問題，如果你看看你的市場份額，如果你看看你的利潤率系統房屋與無晶圓廠，你怎麼看？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

Indeed, in the past five years the system houses sourcing and foundry business to us has a much higher growth rate, as you quoted.

事實上，正如您所引用的，在過去五年中，系統房屋對我們的採購和代工業務的增長率要高得多。

But remember, that came from a very small base.

但請記住，這來自一個非常小的基礎。

Okay?

好的？

But we welcome system house sourcing because we consider them are fabless too, fabless companies, the companies without fabs, bring business to us.

但我們歡迎系統製造商採購，因為我們認為它們也是無晶圓廠的，無晶圓廠的公司，沒有晶圓廠的公司，給我們帶來了業務。

It's not necessarily the margin has to do with what type of company sourced.

利潤率不一定與採購的公司類型有關。

It has to do with our value to that company and also the size, the size of the business.

這與我們對那家公司的價值以及業務的規模和規模有關。

If the business is bigger, of course the -- we probably can enjoy a slightly -- a little bit better price.

如果業務更大，當然 - 我們可能可以享受稍微 - 稍微好一點的價格。

So it depends on the size of the business, less dependent on what company, system company or non-system company's business.

所以要看業務的規模，少看什麼公司，系統公司還是非系統公司的業務。

I guess my question is pretty simple, which is when the fabless is outgrowing the industry, it's easy for me to understand that foundry's going to benefit, right?

我想我的問題很簡單，那就是當無晶圓廠的發展速度超過了這個行業時，我很容易理解代工廠將從中受益，對吧？

When the system houses outgrowing the industry, some of them have their own fabs.

當系統房屋的發展超過行業時，其中一些擁有自己的晶圓廠。

And so is it a positive or negative?

那麼它是積極的還是消極的？

I'm sorry, system company, someone --?

對不起，系統公司，有人——？

For example, you had said earlier that one of your customers lost market share to an internal solution.

例如，您之前曾說過，您的一位客戶因內部解決方案而失去了市場份額。

I'd consider that to be a system house as well, right?

我認為那也是一個系統房屋，對吧？

So overall system house could be in IDM or they might outsource.

所以整個系統公司可能在 IDM 中，或者他們可能外包。

Okay.

好的。

Our system houses are considered fabless system houses, what you just quoted.

我們的系統房屋被認為是無晶圓系統房屋，您剛才引用的內容。

Mainly it's the fabless system houses.

主要是無晶圓系統房屋。

We have very little business from the system houses with their own fabs.

我們與擁有自己晶圓廠的系統廠商的業務很少。

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

So so long as they're a fabless company, how well the business of that system house depends on their business competition.

只要他們是一家無晶圓廠公司，那家系統公司的業務有多好取決於他們的業務競爭。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I guess we'll take it offline.

我想我們會讓它離線。

My second question, and I'm not trying to pin you down, but Mark, you said earlier that the inventory correction and by 2Q and second half of the year will be more normal.

我的第二個問題，我不是要限制你，但是馬克，你之前說過庫存調整以及到第二季度和下半年將更加正常。

Now typical normal seasonality, second half is better than the first half.

現在典型的正常季節性，下半年好於上半年。

Are we saying that second half of this year's revenue is going to be higher than the first year -- first half?

我們是說今年下半年的收入會高於第一年——上半年嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

That's what we see.

這就是我們所看到的。

Second half this year will be better than first half.

今年下半年會好於上半年。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next one will be from HSBC's Steven Pelayo.

下一位將來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

For the last three years or so, TSMC's been growing 20%, 30% year-on-year revenue growth rates.

在過去三年左右的時間裡，台積電一直在增長 20%、30% 的同比收入增長率。

First quarter 50% year on year.

第一季度同比增長 50%。

But to Bill's question there, it does look like in the second half of the year, if I play around with your full-year guidance and what you're doing, low single-digit year-on-year growth rates.

但是對於比爾在那裡的問題，如果我按照你的全年指導和你正在做的事情，它看起來確實像在今年下半年，低個位數的同比增長率。

And if we exclude maybe 16-nanometer, above 16-nanometer, maybe it's flat to down.

如果我們排除 16 納米，16 納米以上，也許它是平的。

Is that the new industry?

那是新興產業嗎？

What are we talking now for industry growth rates for both the semi industry and in the foundry market this year?

對於今年半導體行業和代工市場的行業增長率，我們現在談論的是什麼？

So your question is the --?

所以你的問題是——？

90 days ago you suggested the semi market was going to grow 5% this year with foundries growing 12%.

90 天前，您曾建議半導體市場今年將增長 5%，而代工廠將增長 12%。

In light of your new guidance, in light of what it looks like you're going to have very slight year-on-year growth rates in the second half of the year, what do you think that means for the overall industry?

鑑於您的新指導，鑑於您在下半年的同比增長率看起來將非常輕微，您認為這對整個行業意味著什麼？

We think the semiconductor growth this year currently is indeed we adjusted down from 5% earlier to 4% at this time.

我們認為，目前今年的半導體增長確實是我們從之前的 5% 調整到此時的 4%。

Yes.

是的。

We think it's really due to the macroeconomic situation around the world today.

我們認為這確實是由於當今世界各地的宏觀經濟形勢所致。

And therefore the foundry market -- foundry growth rate will adjusted down too.

因此代工市場——代工增速也將下調。

We are looking at about 10% range.

我們正在研究大約 10% 的範圍。

So that's why we revised our view on the current semiconductor growth.

這就是為什麼我們修改了對當前半導體增長的看法。

I was just trying to get some specific numbers there.

我只是想在那裡得到一些具體的數字。

For you, Lora, spending $1b less on CapEx is going to help with what already is a pretty good free cash flow story this year.

對你來說，Lora，在資本支出上少花 1b 美元將有助於今年已經是一個相當不錯的自由現金流故事。

Can you talk a little bit about maybe the free cash flow targets for this year and what you'll do with some of that excess cash?

您能否談談今年的自由現金流目標以及您將如何處理一些多餘的現金？

You had $14b in cash but now it sounds like you have an extra $1b coming from a lower CapEx budget too.

您有 14 億美元的現金，但現在聽起來您還有來自較低資本支出預算的額外 1 億美元。

I think you're going to generate free cash flow that's maybe double your dividend payment this year.

我認為你將產生自由現金流，這可能是今年股息支付的兩倍。

Can you talk a little bit about free cash flow goals and dividend plans?

你能談談自由現金流目標和股息計劃嗎？

We are confident with our free cash -- capability to generate free cash flow.

我們對我們的自由現金充滿信心——產生自由現金流的能力。

If we want to use all the money to pay dividend, which is not a good idea, but certainly we have some capability to do so.

如果我們想用所有的錢來支付股息，這不是一個好主意，但我們肯定有能力這樣做。

Our view on dividend is that we need to sustain the level without going down.

我們對股息的看法是，我們需要維持水平而不下降。

And we will try our best to maintain that level.

我們將盡最大努力保持這一水平。

So the cash may go up and then we have several ways to consider.

所以現金可能會上漲，然後我們有幾種方法可以考慮。

Mark was mentioning we have new target for the five years.

馬克提到我們有新的五年目標。

We want to grow 10% revenue and EPS.

我們希望增加 10% 的收入和每股收益。

And for that we need to continue to invest, also in capacity and also in R&D.

為此，我們需要繼續投資，包括產能和研發。

So we need to have some bullet to do that too.

所以我們也需要一些子彈來做到這一點。

Okay?

好的？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Can I just quickly add, how much cash do you need on your balance sheet to support a 10% revenue CAGR over the next five years?

我可以快速補充一下，您的資產負債表上需要多少現金來支持未來五年 10% 的收入複合年增長率？

Is $14b a year -- $14b enough?

每年 $14b 夠嗎？ $14b 就夠了嗎？

It's difficult to make a quantify.

很難量化。

It depends on how much we need to spend to keep that 10% growth.

這取決於我們需要花費多少才能保持 10% 的增長。

So I would not answer this question for now.

所以我暫時不會回答這個問題。

Okay?

好的？

All right.

好的。

I think it's about time for us to actually go to the line.

我認為是時候讓我們真正去排隊了。

So we will now take our next question from the call.

因此，我們現在將從電話會議中提出下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請繼續與線路上的第一個呼叫者聯繫。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Thanks for letting me ask a question.

謝謝你讓我問一個問題。

Two follow-ups.

兩個後續。

You talked about converting 20 to 16-nanometer.

您談到將 20 納米轉換為 16 納米。

Can you elaborate on the magnitude of this conversion?

你能詳細說明這種轉換的幅度嗎？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Without going too specific, what I can say is early of this year we expect to have more 20 than 16 capacity.

不用說得太具體，我可以說今年年初我們預計將擁有超過 20 個容量而不是 16 個容量。

Now with the conversion more aggressively, we now see 16-nanometer capacity will be bigger than 20-nanometer for this year.

現在隨著轉換更加積極，我們現在看到今年 16 納米的容量將大於 20 納米。

Sure.

當然。

As this conversion actually takes place, would that impact the installed base of the equipment and therefore would that help you with a one-time positive impact to gross margin?

當這種轉換實際發生時，這是否會影響設備的安裝基礎，從而幫助您一次性對毛利率產生積極影響？

It -- I don't think it would help our one-time improvement in gross margin.

它 - 我認為這不會幫助我們一次性提高毛利率。

As I said earlier, the two technology nodes share the same facilities.

正如我之前所說，這兩個技術節點共享相同的設施。

So the depreciation has to go to the two nodes for a period of time.

所以折舊要到兩個節點去一段時間。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

And then just one quick follow-up on the CapEx cut.

然後只是對資本支出削減的快速跟進。

What -- can you help me better understand what has happened over the past few months that has given you the confidence that you can reuse the equipment?

什麼——你能幫助我更好地了解過去幾個月發生的事情，讓你有信心可以重複使用這些設備嗎？

I imagine the reuse is something that has happened very often in the past.

我想重用是過去經常發生的事情。

What happened in the past couple of months that made you decide to cut the CapEx?

過去幾個月發生了什麼讓您決定削減資本支出？

There were two things that made us do this decision.

有兩件事讓我們做出了這個決定。

Number one is we did improve our capital efficiency, meaning we are reducing our CapEx per K investment.

第一是我們確實提高了資本效率，這意味著我們正在減少每 K 投資的資本支出。

That's pure savings.

那是純粹的儲蓄。

Another thing is the conversion faster from 20 to 16 as we see customer migrate to 16 faster than we thought.

另一件事是從 20 到 16 的轉換速度更快，因為我們看到客戶遷移到 16 的速度比我們想像的要快。

So there will be some excess capacity for 20-nanometer going forward if we don't do it.

因此，如果我們不這樣做，20 納米的未來將會有一些產能過剩。

It's not a magic, and at the very beginning we know these two nodes has very, very high commonality in equipment.

這不是魔法，一開始我們就知道這兩個節點在設備上有非常非常高的通用性。

The commonality is about 95%.

共性約為95%。

So it's just a matter of timing, what's the timing to do this transition.

所以這只是時間問題，什麼是進行這種過渡的時間。

And we decided to do it now.

我們決定現在就去做。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

We will continue on the line.

我們將繼續上線。

Operator, please have the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接下一位來電者。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

My question on 10-nanometer, I know it's still 18 months away from ramp-up, but can you talk about how fast this ramp might scale relative to 20-nanometer or 28-nanometer?

我的問題是關於 10 納米，我知道距離加速增長還有 18 個月的時間，但你能談談這個斜坡相對於 20 納米或 28 納米的擴展速度有多快嗎？

And as you ramp up 10-nanometer for high-end smartphones, would you expect low-end smartphones to start migration from 28 with 16 FinFET in 2017?

隨著高端智能手機的 10 納米工藝升級，您是否預計低端智能手機會在 2017 年開始從 28 到 16 的 FinFET 遷移？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

So, Brett, we just want to make sure we hear you correctly.

所以，布雷特，我們只是想確保我們能正確聽到你的聲音。

Your question seems to say that if we ramp 10-nanometer in the future, which will be targeting the high-end smartphone, will the low-end smartphone be migrating from 28-nanometer into 16-nanometers.

您的問題似乎是說，如果我們將來以高端智能手機為目標的 10 納米，低端智能手機會從 28 納米遷移到 16 納米嗎？

Is that your question?

那是你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And just to add to that, Elizabeth, how quickly will 10-nanometer scale up relative to the scaling of 20-nanometer -- the ramp-up of 20-nanometer and 28?

此外，伊麗莎白，相對於 20 納米的擴展——20 納米和 28 納米的加速增長，10 納米的擴展速度有多快？

Will it be as fast?

會一樣快嗎？

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

So the profile of the 10-nanometer ramp, will that be steeper than the profile of the 20 or the 28-nanometer?

那麼 10 納米斜坡的輪廓會比 20 納米或 28 納米的輪廓更陡峭嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

The first part of the question has to do with 10-nanometer ramp for the high-end smartphone, will the mid/low-end move to 16?

問題的第一部分與高端智能手機的 10 納米坡道有關，中/低端會移動到 16 納米嗎？

I think we -- this is up to our customers' product portfolio.

我認為我們 - 這取決於我們客戶的產品組合。

We definitely know a lot of customer is looking at 28-nanometer to use -- to do as the low end.

我們肯定知道很多客戶正在考慮使用 28 納米——作為低端產品。

But the specification, the smartphone processor specification changes constantly.

但是規格，智能手機處理器規格不斷變化。

So what portion of that product will move to 16-nanometer?

那麼該產品的哪一部分將轉向 16 納米呢？

We think definitely there are some portion, but how a big portion really depends on their product strategy.

我們認為肯定有一部分，但有多大的一部分真正取決於他們的產品策略。

On the 10-nanometer ramp, I wouldn't say it's bigger.

在 10 納米坡道上，我不會說它更大。

But at least it's similar scale of our ramp as we do in 16 and as we do in 20.

但至少它與我們在 16 和 20 中的坡道規模相似。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And let me just have a follow-up here.

讓我在這裡跟進一下。

There's been a lot of talk in the industry about one of your larger customers planning to introduce a new application processor on both Samsung's 14-nanometer process as well as your 16 FinFET for the same chip later this year.

業內有很多關於您的一個大客戶計劃在今年晚些時候在三星的 14 納米工藝以及您的 16 FinFET 上為同一芯片引入新應用處理器的討論。

And we haven't really seen a single chip get taped out on two new processors at the same time before in the industry.

而且我們還沒有真正看到在業界之前同時在兩個新處理器上流片一個芯片。

So my question, how does this really work between the two foundries?

所以我的問題是，這在兩個代工廠之間是如何運作的？

Does it mean that that one customer can adjust dynamically, month to month, how they allocate wafers between you and Samsung?

這是否意味著一位客戶可以逐月動態調整他們如何在您和三星之間分配晶圓？

Or am I -- or how might this work?

或者我 - 或者這可能如何工作？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Brett, I think I tried to understand your question while the photographer's camera is very noisy here.

布雷特，我想我試圖理解你的問題，而攝影師的相機在這裡很吵。

Okay.

好的。

So your question seems to say that there is a customer that appeared to be working with two different foundries on the 14 and 16-nanometer node.

所以你的問題似乎是說有一個客戶似乎在 14 和 16 納米節點上與兩個不同的代工廠合作。

And the products are about to arrive.

產品即將到貨。

You would like to understand how this customer will be allocating month by month the -- what's the production or the orders with both of the two foundries.

您想了解該客戶將如何逐月分配 - 兩家代工廠的產量或訂單情況。

Is that your question?

那是你的問題嗎？

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

Whether they can move around dynamically how they allocate wafers.

他們是否可以動態移動如何分配晶圓。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well my answer is very typical.

嗯，我的回答很典型。

Our 16 FinFET is really very competitive.

我們的 16 FinFET 真的很有競爭力。

And we did not know that customer going to -- how they're going to allocate.

而且我們不知道客戶會 - 他們將如何分配。

I cannot even make any comment on that.

我什至無法對此發表任何評論。

So, Brett, did you hear the answer?

那麼，布雷特，你聽到答案了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe instead if I can perhaps just ask, you previously said 16 FinFET will be high percent of -- high single-digit percent of sales in Q4.

也許相反，如果我可以問一下，您之前說過 16 FinFET 將佔第四季度銷售額的高個位數百分比。

What's the latest update on that?

最新的更新是什麼？

All right.

好的。

I think that question has already been asked earlier, that I think it was Andrew, right?

我認為這個問題之前已經被問過了，我認為是安德魯，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

He -- Andrew suggested that whether it will be 12%, right?

他——安德魯建議是否會是12%，對吧？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Now we come back to the floor.

現在我們回到地板上。

Next the questions will be coming from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

接下來的問題將來自高盛的唐納德·盧。

(Spoken in foreign language).

（用外語講）。

My first question is about InFO.

我的第一個問題是關於 InFO。

Just to confirm you said by Q3 next year the quarterly revenue from InFO will be $100m?

只是為了確認您說到明年第三季度 InFO 的季度收入將達到 1 億美元？

And also -- Q4, sorry.

還有——第四季度，對不起。

What would be the gross margin for this business and also how many customers you have?

這項業務的毛利率是多少，您有多少客戶？

So that's question number one.

所以這是第一個問題。

The question number two is I think Mark talked about 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer.

第二個問題是我認為馬克談到了 10 納米和 7 納米。

Will TSMC offer 8-nanometer similar to 20-nanometer?

台積電會提供類似於 20 納米的 8 納米嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well on InFO, you asked about what is the margin.

好吧，在 InFO 上，您詢問了保證金是多少。

The margin is line with the TSMC's back-end business.

利潤率與台積電的後端業務一致。

That I can say.

我可以說。

I'm pretty sure for that.

我很確定。

And how many customers, that I cannot tell you.

還有多少客戶，我不能告訴你。

Many.

許多。

So you will have more than one customer next year?

那麼明年你會有不止一個客戶嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

To answer your question, we will not offer 8-nanometer.

為了回答您的問題，我們不會提供 8 納米。

Okay.

好的。

Next we'll go to JPMorgan's Gokul.

接下來我們將前往摩根大通的 Gokul。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

First of all on 16-nanometer, since Dr. Wei mentioned that next year a lot of demand on entry-level to mid-end smartphone is still going to stay at 28-nanometer, could you talk about your visibility for second-wave demand for 16-nanometer?

首先是16納米，由於魏博士提到明年很多入門級到中端智能手機的需求仍將停留在28納米，您能否談談您對第二波需求的可見性16納米？

And a related question would be would your combined 20/16-nanometer capacity plan, as it stands right now, how much below 28-nanometer would it be or it would be at the same level of whatever you built for 28-nanometer in the last five years?

一個相關的問題是你的 20/16 納米綜合產能計劃，就目前而言，它會低於 28 納米多少，或者它會與你為 28 納米建造的任何東西處於同一水平過去五年？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So you talk about the second wave for 16 FinFET?

所以你說的是 16 FinFET 的第二波浪潮？

Yes.

是的。

What is the visibility that you have?

你有什麼能見度？

Is it going to be really strong?

真的會很強嗎？

Because you mentioned that a lot of the cost-sensitive customers would still stay on 28, at least for next year.

因為你提到很多對成本敏感的客戶仍然會留在 28 歲，至少在明年。

Okay.

好的。

For 28-nanometer I said mid to low end this year that, and next year probably, that smartphone will stay in 28-nanometer because it's very cost-effective and performance-wise is very good.

對於 28 納米，我說今年中低端，明年可能，智能手機將保持 28 納米，因為它非常具有成本效益並且性能非常好。

For 16 FinFET I think that people will start to move with their product plan and some of the mid-end smartphone will move into 16-nanometer.

對於 16 FinFET，我認為人們將開始推進他們的產品計劃，一些中端智能手機將進入 16 納米。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

In addition to that, we also see improving our 16 FinFET ultra-lower-power Mark just mentioned.

除此之外，我們還看到了我們剛剛提到的 16 FinFET 超低功耗 Mark 的改進。

And that will have a lot of application.

這將有很多應用。

And every product, lower power consumption is one of that advantage.

而每一款產品，更低的功耗就是其中一個優勢。

And so that would be our second wave of 16 FinFET.

這將是我們的第二波 16 FinFET。

Okay.

好的。

Just wanted to add on to that, so when you think about capacity planning for 20 combined with 16 or 16 right now, given that you've accelerated conversion, would you be building similar level of capacity as 28 that you built over the last three, four years?

只是想補充一點，所以當您考慮現在的 20 和 16 或 16 的容量規劃時，鑑於您已經加速轉換，您是否會構建與過去三年構建的 28 類似的容量水平， 四年？

Well that is too early to say right now.

嗯，現在說還為時過早。

But we expect 16 FinFET is a long-lasting node and very similar to 28-nanometer.

但我們預計 16 FinFET 是一個持久節點，與 28 納米非常相似。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Dan Heyler has a follow-up question.

Dan Heyler 有一個後續問題。

Dan.

擔。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

So on 16, this FinFET compact which is getting introduced, when would we expect to see that in volume production?

那麼在 16 日，這款即將推出的 FinFET 緊湊型產品，我們預計什麼時候可以看到它的量產？

16 FinFET?

16 FinFET？

Compact FFC?

緊湊型 FFC？

FFC.

FFC。

FFC?

FFC？

That will be ready next year.

那將在明年準備好。

And we expect that high-volume production starts probably two years later.

我們預計大批量生產可能會在兩年後開始。

That's year 2017.

那是2017年。

2018 will reach the high volume.

2018年將達到高產量。

Okay.

好的。

So is there a -- so the cost-down version for mid-end phones FinFET that you alluded to, plus low power, when is that available?

那麼有沒有你提到的中端手機 FinFET 的低成本版本，加上低功耗，什麼時候可用？

Probably in 2017 second half.

大概在2017年下半年。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on just number of customers that are in volume production in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 16 FinFET, just the number of customers that are in volume production.

然後僅考慮 16 FinFET 第三季度和第四季度量產的客戶數量，以及量產的客戶數量。

You ask a very specific question now.

你現在問一個非常具體的問題。

We have a few customers in the volume production, but not as -- I cannot tell you it's 10, 20 or -- I cannot say.

我們有一些客戶在批量生產，但不是——我不能告訴你是 10 家、20 家，或者——我不能說。

No.

不。

A few meaning three?

幾個意思三？

Too specific.

太具體了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Michael.

邁克爾。

Yes.

是的。

A follow-up question for InFO.

InFO 的後續問題。

As your customer may be concerned about concentration rate for your InFO, is that possible for you to consider outsourcing to -- licensing to OSAT vendor or you will try to do InFO in the long term since you are developing 10-nanometer InFO?

由於您的客戶可能擔心您的 InFO 的集中率，您是否可以考慮外包給 - 許可給 OSAT 供應商，或者您將嘗試長期從事 InFO，因為您正在開發 10 納米 InFO？

Whether we are going to license this technology out to OSAT, it will all depend on the business.

我們是否要將這項技術授權給 OSAT，這完全取決於業務。

At the beginning, when we ramp it up, of course it will be 100% inside TSMC.

一開始，當我們提高它時，當然它會 100% 在台積電內部。

After that we will work with customer, see whether the business need or not and whether we work with the OSAT.

之後，我們將與客戶合作，看看業務是否需要以及我們是否與 OSAT 合作。

There is a lot of flexibility and possibilities.

有很多靈活性和可能性。

Well it seems that we have answered everybody's question successfully today.

好吧，看來我們今天已經成功回答了大家的問題。

And then that way we will end our conference here.

然後我們將在此結束我們的會議。

Thank you for coming.

謝謝你的到來。

Before we conclude, we will -- the replay of this conference will be accessible within three hours from now, transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們結束之前，我們將在三小時後提供本次會議的重播，從現在起 24 小時內提供記錄，兩者都將通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 提供。

So thank you for joining us today.

所以，感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope we will -- you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望我們會——你將在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye.

再見。