台積電 ADR (TSM) 2011 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's 3Q '11 results broadcast conference call.

歡迎來到台積電 3Q '11 業績廣播電話會議。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com and only in audio mode.

本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播，並且僅以音頻模式進行。

Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr.

我現在想把會議交給博士。

Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations.

台積電投資者關係負責人伊麗莎白·孫。

Thank you, Andrea.

謝謝你，安德里亞。

Good morning and good evening, everyone.

大家早上好晚上好。

Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2011 conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2011 年第三季度電話會議。

Joining us on the call are Dr.

加入我們的電話是博士。

Morris Chang, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Ms.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀女士和女士。

Lora Ho, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Lora Ho，我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官。

The format for today's conference call will be as follows.

今天電話會議的格式如下。

First, Lora will summarize our operations in the third quarter and give you our guidance for the next quarter.

首先，Lora 將總結我們在第三季度的運營情況，並為您提供下一季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman, Dr.

隨後，台積電董事長 Dr.

Chang will provide his general remark on the business outlook and a couple of key messages.

Chang 將就業務前景和幾個關鍵信息發表一般性評論。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

I would like to remind all listeners that the following discussion may contain forward-looking statements that subject to significant risks and uncertainty which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我想提醒所有聽眾，以下討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 15, 2011, and such other documents as TSMC may file with, or submit to the SEC from time to time.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，請參閱台積電於 2011 年 4 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交或提交給 SEC。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Lora.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lora。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good morning and good evening to everyone.

大家早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to our 2011 third-quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎參加我們 2011 年第三季度財報電話會議。

I will start with the financial highlights in the third quarter then I will move on to the outlook for the fourth quarter.

我將從第三季度的財務亮點開始，然後再談第四季度的展望。

All dollars presented are in TWD unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，否則所有呈現的美元均以新台幣為單位。

In the third quarter, our revenue was higher than the guidance provided on July 28, thanks to some rush orders in August and more favorable exchange rate.

在第三季度，我們的收入高於 7 月 28 日提供的指導，這要歸功於 8 月份的一些緊急訂單和更有利的匯率。

Third-quarter revenues decreased 3.6% sequentially to TWD106.5b.

第三季度收入環比下降 3.6% 至 TWD106.5b。

And wafer shipments decreased 3% (sic - see presentation) to 3.2m eight-inch equivalent wafers.

晶圓出貨量下降 3%（原文如此 - 參見演示文稿）至 320 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓。

Our wafer demand was affected by weakened global economic conditions and customers' inventory adjustment.

我們的晶圓需求受到全球經濟疲軟和客戶庫存調整的影響。

Computer and consumer-related revenues was more affected and decreased by 16% and 18% respectively, whereas communication and industrial increased by 3% and 9% from the second quarter.

計算機和消費相關的收入受到的影響更大，分別下降了 16% 和 18%，而通信和工業則比第二季度增長了 3% 和 9%。

Overall, communication accounted for 48% of our total wafer revenue in this quarter while computer, consumer and industrial accounted for 21%, 10% and 21% of our wafer sales respectively.

總體而言，通信占我們本季度晶圓總收入的 48%，而計算機、消費和工業分別占我們晶圓銷售額的 21%、10% 和 21%。

By technology, demand for 40-nanometer and below technologies held up relatively well and reached 27% of wafer revenue in third quarter, including 0.5% from 28-nanometer.

分技術來看，40納米及以下技術的需求保持較好，第三季度達到晶圓收入的27%，其中28納米佔0.5%。

And we expect our 28-nanometer ramp to accelerate in the next few quarters.

我們預計我們的 28 納米工藝將在未來幾個季度加速。

Combined contribution from 65-nanometer and below represented 54% of our total wafer sales in the third quarter, which is 1 percentage point lower than the second quarter, as revenue from the 65 node decreased by 2 percentage points in the third quarter.

65 納米及以下的綜合貢獻占我們第三季度晶圓總銷售額的 54%，比第二季度低 1 個百分點，因為第三季度 65 節點的收入下降了 2 個百分點。

Gross margin was 42% and operating margin was 29.7%.

毛利率為 42%，營業利潤率為 29.7%。

The sequential decline in margin was mainly due to lower utilization.

利潤率環比下降主要是由於利用率降低。

Operating expense increased 1.4% from the previous quarter, mainly due to higher R&D spending on 20-nanometer and higher patent filing fees.

營業費用較上一季度增長 1.4%，主要是由於 20 納米的研發支出增加和專利申請費增加。

In the future we will continue increase R&D spending to expand our lead in technology and keep SG&A tight at the same time.

未來，我們將繼續增加研發支出，以擴大我們在技術上的領先地位，同時保持 SG&A 緊縮。

Overall our third quarter net margin arrived at 28.5%.

總體而言，我們第三季度的淨利潤率為 28.5%。

EPS was TWD1.17.

每股收益為 1.17 新台幣。

In line with what we said in the last conference, we have successfully reduced the inventory level during this quarter.

與我們在上次會議上所說的一致，我們在本季度成功地降低了庫存水平。

Our inventory turnover days significantly reduced by eight days to the Company's normal level of 45 days, mainly reflecting lower inventory levels in finished goods and work in process inventories.

我們的存貨周轉天數大幅減少 8 天至公司正常水平 45 天，主要反映製成品和在製品存貨的存貨水平較低。

Cash from operations totaled TWD55b.

營運現金總額為TWD55b。

Free cash flow was TWD17b during the quarter, up from an outflow of TWD1.8b in the second quarter due to less capital expenditure.

由於資本支出減少，本季度的自由現金流為TWD17b，高於第二季度的TWD1.8b。

Combined with TWD78b cash dividend payment and TWD18b proceeds from a corporate bond issuance, our cash and short-term investments decreased TWD39b to TWD120b.

加上TWD78b的現金股息支付和TWD18b的公司債券發行收益，我們的現金和短期投資減少TWD39b至TWD120b。

In light of weakened demand we decided to further revise down 2011 capital expenditure to $7.3b.

鑑於需求疲軟，我們決定將 2011 年資本支出進一步下調至 $7.3b。

Total capital expenditure in the first three quarters reached $6.3b.

前三個季度的總資本支出達到 $6.3b。

As a result of the adjustment, our total capacity would be flat in the fourth quarter.

由於調整，我們的總產能將在第四季度持平。

Full-year total capacity will increase 17% to 13.2m 8-inch equivalent wafers while 12-inch wafer capacity will increase by 29%.

全年總產能將增長 17%，達到 1320 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，而 12 英寸晶圓產能將增長 29%。

Now let's turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter.

現在讓我們轉向第四季度的展望。

Based on current business expectations and the forecast exchange rate of TWD30.3 we expect our consolidated revenues in the fourth quarter to come in between TWD103b and TWD105b.

根據當前的業務預期和 TWD30.3 的預測匯率，我們預計第四季度的綜合收入將介於 TWD103b 和 TWD105b 之間。

In terms of margins, we expect our fourth quarter gross margin to be between 43.5% and 45.5%.

就利潤率而言，我們預計第四季度的毛利率將在 43.5% 至 45.5% 之間。

Operating margin to be between 30% and 32%.

營業利潤率在 30% 到 32% 之間。

The reason for the lower revenue guidance but higher margin guidance is due to the following reasons.

較低的收入指導但較高的利潤率指導的原因是由於以下原因。

Number one, in fourth quarter we have better cost control so the cost saving contribute to margin improvement.

第一，第四季度我們有更好的成本控制，因此成本節約有助於提高利潤率。

Also the fourth-quarter utilization will be slightly higher than the third quarter.

此外，第四季度的利用率將略高於第三季度。

In addition to that, the exchange rate in fourth quarter is higher than third quarter which is favorable to the Company.

此外，第四季度匯率高於第三季度，對公司有利。

The three favorable will be offset slightly by an unfavorable product mix due to the ramping of 28-nanometer.

由於 28 納米的發展，不利的產品組合將略微抵消這三個有利因素。

This concludes my remarks today.

我今天的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Dr.

現在我想把電話轉給博士。

Morris Chang our Chairman and CEO for his remarks.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀先生的講話。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

I'm Morris Chang, CEO of TSMC.

我是台積電 CEO 張忠謀。

I want first to talk about the world semiconductor market and foundry market this year.

我想先談談今年的世界半導體市場和代工市場。

The weakening world economic outlook has impacted the demand for semiconductors.

疲軟的世界經濟前景影響了對半導體的需求。

We now forecast this year's world semiconductor growth at 1%.

我們現在預測今年世界半導體的增長率為 1%。

We had forecast 5% in January and 2% in April, and we now forecast only 1% growth for world semiconductor market this year.

我們曾預測 1 月份為 5%，4 月份為 2%，而我們現在預測今年全球半導體市場僅增長 1%。

And we have also trimmed our forecast for semiconductor foundry revenue growth to 10% -- I'm sorry, to 4% this year.

我們還將對半導體代工收入增長的預測下調至 10%——對不起，今年下調至 4%。

We had forecast for 7% as late as July.

直到 7 月，我們才預測為 7%。

All these are in US dollars.

所有這些都是美元。

Now TSMC's growth this year in US dollars will be 9%.

現在台積電今年以美元計算的增長將是9%。

I want to talk about the supply chain inventory.

我想談談供應鏈庫存。

In the last quarterly conference, we said that the excess inventory in the semiconductor supply chain will be mostly digested in 3Q, and that DOI will be at its seasonal level by the end of 3Q.

在上一季度的會議上，我們說半導體供應鏈的過剩庫存將在三季度大部分被消化，到三季度末DOI將處於季節性水平。

We also said that TSMC's utilization rate will be higher in 4Q compared to 3Q.

我們也說過台積電在四季度的使用率會比三季度更高。

These statements hold true today.

這些陳述在今天仍然成立。

The supply chain inventory is estimated to be 3 days below seasonal at the end of 3Q.

供應鏈庫存預計在第三季度末比季節性低 3 天。

And TSMC has reduced our own DOI by 8 days to 45 days in 3Q which is about our normal level.

台積電在第三季度將我們自己的 DOI 減少了 8 天至 45 天，這大約是我們的正常水平。

However the increasing uncertainty of future demand has continued to prompt IC vendors, namely our customers, to de-stock.

然而，未來需求的不確定性不斷增加，繼續促使 IC 供應商，即我們的客戶，去庫存。

We believe this effective supply chain DOI will be further reduced to several days below seasonal by the end of 4Q.

我們認為，到第四季度末，這一有效的供應鏈 DOI 將進一步減少至低於季節性的幾天。

We do expect our fourth-quarter utilization level rate to be slightly higher than 3Q.

我們確實預計我們第四季度的利用率將略高於第三季度。

Now I would like to talk about our competitive strengths.

現在我想談談我們的競爭優勢。

In these economic uncertain times, TSMC's competitive position is stronger than ever.

在這些經濟不確定的時期，台積電的競爭地位比以往任何時候都強。

Our technology development is progressing well.

我們的技術開發進展順利。

And I'll talk about a few of them here.

我將在這裡討論其中的一些。

First 28-nanometer, our 28-nanometer process is in volume production.

第一個 28 納米，我們的 28 納米工藝已投入量產。

More than 40,000 12-inch wafers will be shipped to customers in the next few months.

未來幾個月將向客戶發貨超過 40,000 片 12 英寸晶圓。

And we anticipate the ramp next year will be fast.

我們預計明年的增長速度會很快。

Three out of the four 28-nanometer process offerings are in volume production.

四種 28 納米工藝產品中的三種已量產。

They are 28HP, HPL and LP.

它們是 28HP、HPL 和 LP。

The remaining version 28HPM will be ready for production by end of this year.

剩餘的 28HPM 版本將在今年年底前投入生產。

Our 28-nanometer process has surpassed the previous generations' production ramps at the same point in time.

我們的 28 納米工藝在同一時間點超過了前幾代產品的產量。

And product yield continues to improve and is on track.

產品良率不斷提高，步入正軌。

We expect 28-nanometer to be an important engine of our growth next year, since we are the first and only foundry to volume produce 28-nanometer.

我們預計 28 納米將成為我們明年增長的重要引擎，因為我們是第一家也是唯一一家量產 28 納米的代工廠。

We not only demonstrated our leadership in technology, but also provide arsenal for our customers for their design wins with competitive products.

我們不僅展示了我們在技術方面的領先地位，而且還為我們的客戶提供了武器庫，讓他們以具有競爭力的產品贏得設計。

Now a few words on 20-nanometer.

現在談談 20 納米。

Our 20-nanometer development is on track and demonstrated a fully functional SRAM.

我們的 20 納米開發步入正軌，並展示了功能齊全的 SRAM。

Multiple customers have already engaged for more than a year with TSMC on the development of 20-nanometer.

多家客戶已與台積電合作開發 20 納米技術一年多。

We plan two offerings for the 20-nanometer process; 20G for high performance products such as CPU, GPU and server and 20SoC for high performance and low-leakage products such as mobile computing devices.

我們計劃為 20 納米工藝提供兩種產品； 20G 用於 CPU、GPU 和服務器等高性能產品，20SoC 用於移動計算設備等高性能和低洩漏產品。

Risk production for 20-nanometer G is scheduled for 3Q '12, next year.

20 納米 G 的風險生產計劃於明年 12 年第三季度進行。

And risk production for 20-nanometer SoC will start in January of 2013.

20 納米 SoC 的風險生產將於 2013 年 1 月開始。

We are world's first and only foundry to complete the tape-out of 20-nanometer ARM-Cortex A15 MP core processor which is high performance for future mobile computing product.

我們是全球第一家也是唯一一家完成面向未來移動計算產品的高性能 20 納米 ARM-Cortex A15 MP 核心處理器流片的代工廠。

We have also started the development of 14-nanometer thin [patch].

我們還開始了 14 納米薄 [patch] 的開發。

The device path-finding has been ongoing for more than one year.

設備尋路已經進行了一年多。

And we plan to risk start our 14-nanometer process in 2014.

我們計劃在 2014 年冒險啟動 14 納米工藝。

A few words on COWOS.

關於 COWOS 的幾句話。

It stands for chip on wafer on substrate.

它代表基板上晶圓上的芯片。

Last quarter I showed you a framework for subsystem integration through silicon interposer.

上個季度，我向您展示了一個通過矽中介層集成子系統的框架。

This time I'm able to show you the picture of the actual test chips.

這次我可以給你看實際測試芯片的圖片。

Let's view that one.

讓我們看看那個。

The larger chip and the DRAM chips or cubes are placed on top of the silicon interposer.

較大的芯片和 DRAM 芯片或立方體放置在矽中介層的頂部。

This is COW, chip on wafer, and then packaged on a substrate.

這是COW，晶圓上的芯片，然後封裝在基板上。

This is COWOS, chip on wafer on substrate.

這是COWOS，基板上晶圓上的芯片。

We have achieved very good yields and obtained encouraging reliability on these test vehicle.

我們在這些測試車輛上取得了非常好的產量並獲得了令人鼓舞的可靠性。

The process flow for COWOS is shown on the next viewgraph.

COWOS 的流程顯示在下一個視圖中。

The advantages of COWOS indicate the resolution for warpage and the thin wafer issues.

COWOS 的優勢表明翹曲和薄晶圓問題的解決方案。

A clear ownership of the long process flow, simplifies supply chain in shorter cycle time.

對長流程流程的明確所有權，在更短的周期時間內簡化了供應鏈。

The improvement on yield, cost reduction and reliability can be continuous, efficient and effective.

產量、成本降低和可靠性的改進可以是持續的、高效的和有效的。

With this COWOS technology, our business model is such that we will provide service in, one, top die logic wafer process, wafer sort, and microbumping.

憑藉這項 COWOS 技術，我們的商業模式是，我們將提供服務，其中之一是頂級芯片邏輯晶圓工藝、晶圓分類和微凸塊。

And two, integrate the back-end assembly solution or interposer wafer, final assembly and final test.

二、整合後端組裝解決方案或中介層晶圓、最終組裝和最終測試。

We do not plan to sell just the interposer.

我們不打算只銷售內插器。

A few words on embedded Flash.

關於嵌入式 Flash 的幾句話。

Our business in embedded Flash has grown by 30% to a level close to TWD800m this year thanks to the strong growth in smartphones and tablets.

由於智能手機和平板電腦的強勁增長，我們的嵌入式閃存業務今年增長了 30% 至接近 8 億新台幣的水平。

Battery management IC as well as touch sense controllers enjoy the highest growth within the embedded Flash segment.

電池管理 IC 和触控感應控制器在嵌入式閃存領域中增長最快。

TSMC's 0.18-micron embedded Flash with complete platform solution saw record level of new product tape outs this year.

台積電的 0.18 微米嵌入式閃存與完整的平台解決方案在今年的新產品流片中創下歷史新高。

Our 90-nanometer embedded Flash has started production ramp this year.

我們的 90 納米嵌入式閃存已於今年開始量產。

65-nanometer joint development programs and 90-nanometer phase in MCU have been established.

65納米聯合開發計劃和MCU中的90納米階段已經建立。

And we expect to launch 40-nanometer embedded Flash program in 4Q this year.

我們預計今年第四季度將推出 40 納米嵌入式 Flash 計劃。

Now a few words about next year's semiconductor and TSMC outlook.

現在談談明年的半導體和台積電前景。

We expect next year's semiconductor growth, semiconductor market to grow 3% to 5% over this year.

我們預計明年的半導體增長，半導體市場將比今年增長3%至5%。

TSMC, with 28 high ramp up constituting our important engine for growth, will grow several points higher than the semiconductor market.

台積電以 28 台高增長構成我們重要的增長引擎，增長將比半導體市場高幾個點。

All these, of course, in US dollars.

當然，所有這些都是美元。

Now a few words on capital expenditure, CapEx.

現在談談資本支出，資本支出。

We have two opposite forces in action here.

我們這裡有兩種相反的力量在起作用。

We have a relatively soft growth outlook in the semiconductor market.

我們對半導體市場的增長前景相對疲軟。

And yet we are going to ramp up our 28-nanometer very fast next year.

然而，我們明年將非常快速地提升我們的 28 納米。

Now this year we have already trimmed our 2011 capital spending to $7.3b, as Lora just told you.

正如 Lora 剛剛告訴您的那樣，今年我們已經將 2011 年的資本支出削減至 $7.3b。

It is $100m less than we announced last quarter.

這比我們上一季度宣布的少了 1 億美元。

For next year we plan to reduce our 2012 capital spending.

明年，我們計劃減少 2012 年的資本支出。

It will be at a lower level than this year's.

將低於今年的水平。

Those are all the prepared comments I have.

這些都是我準備好的評論。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Operator, please open the floor to questions.

接線員，請開始提問。

At this time we will open the floor for questions.

在這個時候，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Your first question comes from the line of Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Yes, hi and good evening.

是的，你好，晚上好。

I wanted to ask a couple of follow ups on the COWOS and 3D packaging.

我想問一些關於 COWOS 和 3D 包裝的跟進。

The first one, if you think it makes more sense to vertically integrate more and offer more of the traditional back-end assembly and tests, even beyond some of the 3D packaging.

第一個，如果您認為垂直集成更多並提供更多傳統後端組裝和測試更有意義，甚至超出一些 3D 封裝。

Will we consider even a further integration?

我們會考慮進一步整合嗎？

Yes, further, so doing more of the back end.

是的，進一步，所以做更多的後端。

You're starting to move into wafer level packaging and 2.5D and 3D --

您開始進入晶圓級封裝以及 2.5D 和 3D 領域——

Yes.

是的。

Packaging.

打包。

But just, more broadly, do you think back-end assembly and tests is an area that you could vertically integrate even more, a more full suite of steps there.

但是，更廣泛地說，您是否認為後端組裝和測試是一個您可以垂直整合更多的領域，那裡有更完整的步驟套件。

At this point, from the business point of view -- we are not at this point from the business point of view we are not considering further than what we already have told you.

在這一點上，從業務的角度來看——我們不是從業務的角度來看，我們沒有比我們已經告訴你的更進一步。

Now however we have quite a large 3D group on research.

然而，現在我們有一個相當大的 3D 研究小組。

So they are constantly looking at the possibility of further integration.

所以他們一直在尋找進一步整合的可能性。

Okay.

好的。

With the COWOS process, which technology node would you see this getting adopted?

對於 COWOS 流程，您認為哪個技術節點會被採用？

And maybe if you can think of how broad the application would scale across your business.

也許如果您能想到應用程序將在您的業務中擴展的範圍有多大。

I think that it would start in 28-nanometer and that it will be bigger in 20-nanometer.

我認為它會從 28 納米開始，到 20 納米會更大。

Okay.

好的。

And to get a sense of how you're planning coming out of this inventory de-stocking, well, 2009 we had a strong rebound.

為了了解您計劃如何擺脫庫存去庫存，嗯，2009 年我們經歷了強勁的反彈。

Are you planning to build -- I guess, for your planning, are you trying to put in place buffer capacity, particularly on 28-nanometer, in the event we have a speed-up recovery, or do you want to take a conservative approach given what you see out there?

您是否計劃建造——我想，為了您的計劃，您是否嘗試建立緩衝容量，特別是在 28 納米，以防我們加速恢復，或者您是否想採取保守的方法鑑於你在外面看到的？

At this point we are taking the conservative approach.

在這一點上，我們採取保守的方法。

Now -- and I really don't expect a strong surge, if there is a surge.

現在——如果有激增的話，我真的不指望會有強勁的激增。

Well I think there will be a increase.

嗯，我認為會有增加。

There will be a surge.

會有一個高潮。

And I really -- but I don't expect that surge to be as strong as the one we saw in second and third quarters of 2009.

我真的 - 但我不認為這種激增會像我們在 2009 年第二和第三季度看到的那樣強勁。

Okay.

好的。

The last question I had was just on -- there were comments the press had about [oneID] and Panasonic, but a few others have discussed outsourcing more.

我剛剛提出的最後一個問題是——媒體對 [oneID] 和松下發表了評論，但其他一些人則更多地討論了外包。

It's been very gradual over time, but are you starting to see any acceleration in outsourcing in that market.

隨著時間的推移，這是非常漸進的，但是您是否開始看到該市場的外包出現任何加速。

Yes I can.

我可以。

I'm not going to comment on any specific customer, but the answer to your question is yes.

我不會對任何特定客戶發表評論，但您的問題的答案是肯定的。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo of HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

I'm curious about your guidance.

我很好奇你的指導。

You're guiding for utilization rates to increase, a little bit more of a tailwind from currency, yet total revenues to decline 1% to 3% or so.

您正在指導利用率提高，貨幣的順風，但總收入下降 1% 至 3% 左右。

It seems to me that that would mean that your ASPs have to be falling off quite a bit.

在我看來，這意味著您的 ASP 必須大幅下降。

So could you help me reconcile that and maybe talk about pricing both in terms of like for like and mix?

那麼，您能幫我調和一下，也許可以從“點贊”和“混合”這兩個方面談談定價？

Steven, the fourth quarter we will ramp 28-nanometer.

史蒂文，第四季度我們將增加 28 納米。

So if you talk about from the Company-wide average ASP point of view, it will support it.

因此，如果您從全公司平均 ASP 的角度來看，它會支持它。

It will go up because of 28-nanometer.

由於28納米，它會上升。

Other than that, I just described, the fourth quarter revenue decline just slightly, with the support of FX which will be 4% appreciation versus third quarter, so about -- eventually settling to about 4% of revenue.

除此之外，我剛剛描述過，第四季度收入略有下降，在外彙的支持下，與第三季度相比升值 4%，因此最終穩定在收入的 4% 左右。

Did I answer your questions?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

I guess it still doesn't really add up that much.

我想它仍然沒有真正加起來那麼多。

Without the currency impact your revenue guidance would have been something lower and how do I reconcile that with rising utilization rates?

如果沒有貨幣影響，您的收入指導會更低，我如何與利用率上升相協調？

To me the one missing component was ASP.

對我來說，缺少的一個組件是 ASP。

So I was trying to understand.

所以我試圖理解。

Let me -- I think you probably didn't hear my statements on -- my prediction actually on last time -- three months ago.

讓我——我想你可能沒有聽到我關於——我上次的預測——三個月前的陳述。

I actually predicted that the fourth quarter utilization will be higher than the third quarter even though the revenue would be flattish or might even be down.

我實際上預測第四季度的利用率將高於第三季度，儘管收入將持平甚至可能下降。

The reason I made a prediction -- and it has come true -- the reason I made a prediction was that we reduce our own inventory in the third quarter.

我做出預測的原因——它已經實現了——我做出預測的原因是我們在第三季度減少了自己的庫存。

And by reducing the inventory, naturally the utilization was held low.

而通過減少庫存，利用率自然會保持在較低水平。

Now our own inventory reduction has been completed at the end of September.

現在我們自己的去庫存已經在9月底完成。

And in the fourth quarter then our utilization reflects a normal mode of operation.

在第四季度，我們的利用率反映了正常的運營模式。

You see, when you're reducing inventory, you have to make less stuff; therefore, your utilization is low.

你看，當你減少庫存時，你必須減少生產；因此，您的利用率很低。

Now after your inventory reduction has been completed, then you have to make stuff normally.

現在你的庫存減少完成後，你必須正常製作東西。

Therefore your utilization comes up.

因此，您的利用率出現了。

Does that make sense?

那有意義嗎？

Now I understand.

現在我明白了。

Now it makes a lot of sense.

現在它很有意義。

Thank you for restating that again.

謝謝你再次重申。

I'm trying to understand a little bit with this COWOS process, you said it starts in 28-nanometer.

我試圖了解一下這個 COWOS 工藝，你說它從 28 納米開始。

Could you just give us a general idea of the number of customer engagements you have, or designs you're working with, or some way that we can try to quantify the potential impact next year and beyond I guess?

您能否大致了解您擁有的客戶參與數量，或您正在使用的設計，或者我們可以嘗試量化明年及以後的潛在影響的某種方式？

I think the -- well, customers.

我認為 - 好吧，客戶。

We are actually not working with a large number -- well, we are working with several customers on the development phase.

我們實際上並沒有與大量客戶合作——嗯，我們正在與幾個客戶合作開發階段。

We are working with several customers on the development phase.

我們正在開發階段與幾家客戶合作。

The impact to us, revenue-side impact to us will be minimal even next year.

即使在明年，對我們的影響，對我們收入方面的影響也將是最小的。

So the 28 is going to run for quite a long time.

所以 28 會運行很長時間。

So I do think that COWOS will start with 28.

所以我確實認為 COWOS 將從 28 開始。

And I think that we are already working with a few customers also on the 20-nanometer process.

而且我認為我們已經在與一些客戶合作開發 20 納米工藝。

So by the time 20-nanometer is in volume production, I think the impact on revenue will be reasonably significant.

因此，到 20 納米量產時，我認為對收入的影響將相當顯著。

I can't --

我不能——

I understand.

我明白。

I can't quantify it beyond that.

除此之外，我無法量化它。

And if I could just sneak in one final one, today you mentioned that the depreciation would grow about 23% this year, but next year would be something lower.

如果我可以偷偷最後一個，今天你提到今年貶值將增長約 23%，但明年會更低。

Given that we're all a little concerned about margin impacts from higher depreciation, can you quantify a bit more maybe on what you think depreciation growth would be besides just lower than 23% next year?

鑑於我們都有點擔心較高折舊對利潤率的影響，您能否進一步量化一下您認為明年的折舊增長率會低於 23% 嗎？

We haven't finished, currently, a decision on the CapEx for 2012 depending on how much 28-nanometer we want to build.

目前，我們還沒有完成對 2012 年資本支出的決定，具體取決於我們想要建造多少 28 納米。

But with the last CapEx for next year we believe the depreciation year-over-year increase will be less than 20%.

但根據明年的最後一次資本支出，我們認為折舊同比增幅將低於 20%。

She said less than 20%.

她說不到20%。

And let me say this.

讓我這麼說。

Of course the ideal situation financially is for the increase of depreciation to be below the increase of revenue.

當然，理想的財務狀況是折舊的增加低於收入的增加。

Now you have to keep in mind that depreciation is accounted in TWD even though the expenditure is largely in US dollars.

現在您必須記住，即使支出主要以美元計，折舊也以新台幣計。

But once we get the equipment, once we install the equipment, the depreciation base is in TWD.

但是一旦我們拿到設備，一旦我們安裝了設備，折舊基數是TWD。

So the depreciation cost is in TWD.

所以折舊成本是TWD。

Now the -- so on that basis this year our revenue increased in TWD.

現在 - 所以在此基礎上，今年我們的收入增加了新台幣。

It's not very great.

這不是很好。

It's almost flat isn't it?

它幾乎是平的，不是嗎？

It's almost flat.

它幾乎是平的。

And yet we had a depreciation increase of 23%.

然而，我們的折舊增加了 23%。

That is certainly far from ideal.

這當然遠非理想。

Now next year, I said earlier that I expect our US dollar revenue growth will be several points more than 3% to 5%.

現在明年，我之前說過，我預計我們的美元收入增長會超過3%到5%幾個百分點。

So we certainly would like to think that the TWD revenue growth will be comparable and that's assuming the exchange rate doesn't vary that much.

因此，我們當然希望新台幣收入增長具有可比性，並且假設匯率變化不大。

Now if the TWD growth is in the -- TWD revenue growth is in the, let's say, 6% to 8% range, 6% to 8% range and depreciation increase is less than 20%, then that's a heck of a lot better situation than we have this year.

現在，如果新台幣的增長在——新台幣的收入增長在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內，6% 到 8% 的範圍內，折舊率增長不到 20%，那就好得多了比我們今年的情況。

Does that make sense?

那有意義嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of (multiple speakers).

您的下一個問題來自（多位發言者）。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

I was hoping that the gentleman --

我希望這位先生——

Yes.

是的。

Andrea, I think you cut off Steven's line and Chairman is asking if Steven is satisfied with that answer.

安德里亞，我想你切斷了史蒂文的電話，主席問史蒂文是否對這個答案感到滿意。

If you can still hear me, yes, I'm satisfied, thank you.

如果你還能聽到我的聲音，是的，我很滿意，謝謝。

Yes, I'm satisfied.

是的，我很滿意。

Thank you for taking the time.

感謝您抽出寶貴時間。

I really appreciate it.

對此，我真的非常感激。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Dr.

博士。

Chang, I want to ask you about the trend on the technology side.

Chang，我想問你關於技術方面的趨勢。

Your up-and-coming competitors are obviously moving towards 32-nanometer and planning to have pilot run for 28-nanometer sometime next year.

您嶄露頭角的競爭對手顯然正在向 32 納米邁進，併計劃在明年某個時候試運行 28 納米。

But they are still on a gate-first while TSMC is gate-last.

但是他們仍然是先門，而台積電是後門。

Is this something that do you think people still haven't really understood the differences?

你認為人們還沒有真正理解這些差異嗎？

Is this something that could really set TSMC apart from these new competitors?

這真的能讓台積電從這些新競爭對手中脫穎而出嗎？

And anything else that you can offer would be appreciated.

您可以提供的任何其他內容將不勝感激。

And I have a follow-up question.

我有一個後續問題。

The most important people who understand are the customers.

最重要的了解的人是客戶。

And I believe that our customers unanimously understand that the gate-last approach is the superior.

而且我相信我們的客戶一致理解最後門的方法是優越的。

But when you say customers, obviously designers prefer gate-last.

但是當你說客戶時，顯然設計師更喜歡後門。

But then when it comes to cost, gate-first offers some advantages if you can resolve the yield issues.

但在成本方面，如果您能解決良率問題，先門優先提供一些優勢。

So when you say customers, does that refer to the decision-makers or the people who are actually involved with the product design?

所以當你說客戶時，是指決策者還是實際參與產品設計的人？

Well, it's certainly not obvious to me at all that gate-first offers even cost advantage.

嗯，對我來說，門優先提供甚至成本優勢當然一點也不明顯。

I believe that superficially it seems to be a simple process.

我相信從表面上看，這似乎是一個簡單的過程。

And yet, there's a big difference between a simple process and lower cost because the simpler process may be harder to make and the yields may be lower.

然而，簡單的工藝和低成本之間存在很大差異，因為更簡單的工藝可能更難製造，產量可能更低。

And therefore the cost will even be higher.

因此成本會更高。

That's my feeling about gate-first and gate-last.

這就是我對先門和後門的感覺。

Sure.

當然。

When do you think there will be (Multiple Speakers) --

你認為什麼時候會有（多位發言者）——

And again my feeling, I think is less important than our customers [thoughts].

再說一次我的感覺，我認為不如我們的客戶[想法]重要。

And our customers unanimously know that gate-last -- well, actually for that matter our competitors have decided to change to gate-last also.

我們的客戶一致知道後門 - 好吧，實際上我們的競爭對手也決定改為後門。

But not until 20-nanometer.

但直到 20 納米。

And I'm just wondering if from now till then there will be enough difference in performance and cost benefit of the product that would prevent these new competitors from gaining any more traction.

我只是想知道從現在到那時，產品的性能和成本效益是否會有足夠的差異，從而阻止這些新的競爭對手獲得更多的吸引力。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

Okay.

好的。

Well, I think our technical people, whom I respect, they have unanimously told me that gate-last is the way to go and still be competitive.

好吧，我認為我們的技術人員，我尊重他們，他們一致告訴我，最後一道門是要走的路，並且仍然具有競爭力。

And then my follow-up question, I kind of missed your commentary on inventory correction.

然後是我的後續問題，我有點想念你對庫存修正的評論。

Based on -- so I apologize if I'm repeating the question already asked.

基於——所以如果我重複已經提出的問題，我深表歉意。

When you look at the rolling forecast, given what we know today of market demand and when you look into your rolling forecast for beyond December, how do you see the trend playing out, especially when Christmas and Chinese New Year are back to back and when many chip companies have already told us over the past two weeks that chip inventory correction is going to come to an end by Q3.

當您查看滾動預測時，鑑於我們今天對市場需求的了解，當您查看 12 月以後的滾動預測時，您如何看待趨勢的發展，尤其是在聖誕節和農曆新年緊接著以及何時過去兩週，許多芯片公司已經告訴我們，芯片庫存調整將在第三季度結束。

So what I'm trying to figure out is, is there a realistic scenario to expect a pent-up demand if the sell-through during the month of January doesn't fall off the cliff.

所以我想弄清楚的是，如果 1 月份的銷售量沒有從懸崖上掉下來，是否存在預期被壓抑的需求的現實情景。

Is this something that you're contemplating?

這是你正在考慮的事情嗎？

I'm sorry, I'm asking Elizabeth to --

對不起，我要求伊麗莎白——

Well, I think your question is some people are saying that the inventory correction will be ending by end of Q3 instead of by end of Q4 right.

好吧，我認為你的問題是有些人說庫存調整將在第三季度末結束，而不是在第四季度末結束。

Yes.

是的。

So when you look into your rolling forecast for beyond December, what -- is there anything that you can share with us because -- and I'm asking that because inventory correction is coming to an end by Q3.

因此，當您查看 12 月以後的滾動預測時，您有什麼可以與我們分享的，因為我問這個問題是因為庫存調整將在第三季度結束。

Then we have two major catalysts which hit consumption, Christmas and then two weeks later, Chinese New Year.

然後我們有兩個主要的影響消費的催化劑，聖誕節和兩週後的中國新年。

And if sell-through doesn't fall off the cliff, there could be a scenario where there's a pent-up demand and some of your customers may rush back.

如果銷售量沒有從懸崖上掉下來，那麼可能會出現需求被壓抑而你的一些客戶可能會趕回來的情況。

Look --

看 -

Mehdi.

邁赫迪。

Look, I think that actually last quarter, three months ago we thought the supply chain inventory correction would probably end in September.

看，我認為實際上上個季度，三個月前，我們認為供應鏈庫存調整可能會在 9 月結束。

But the inputs that we have been getting from our customers is that -- or I should say the implications that we've been getting from our customers is that the destocking is still going on.

但是我們從客戶那裡得到的信息是——或者我應該說我們從客戶那裡得到的暗示是去庫存仍在繼續。

Now keep in mind that we are not like an IBM, such as Intel.

現在請記住，我們不像英特爾那樣的 IBM。

We do have our customers as another layer between us and the market and the equipment market.

我們確實將客戶作為我們與市場和設備市場之間的另一層。

So the IBMs can control their inventory very well and they can -- they are in immediate contact with the equipment market.

因此，IBM 可以很好地控制他們的庫存，而且他們可以——他們與設備市場直接接觸。

Whereas we are one layer more -- one layer apart -- one layer more apart from the equipment market.

而我們離設備市場又多了一層——隔了一層——再隔了一層。

So therefore the way we see this destocking is a bit more complicated than the IBMs would see destocking.

因此，我們看到這種去庫存的方式比 IBM 看到的去庫存要復雜一些。

I don't know whether I made myself clear.

我不知道我是否說清楚了。

Should I assume -- but basically we just don't know how the Q1 rolling forecasts are going to look like.

我應該假設 - 但基本上我們只是不知道第一季度滾動預測會是什麼樣子。

Is that what you're implying?

這就是你的意思嗎？

We don't know.

我們不知道。

Our Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter for us; it has always been anyway.

我們的第一季度對我們來說是季節性疲軟的季度；反正一直都是。

So -- and now with the continuous destocking, there's -- if you want me to say now what I expect, I expect that the Q1 will be seasonally weak in revenue.

所以 - 現在隨著持續的去庫存，有 - 如果你想讓我現在說出我的預期，我預計第一季度的收入將季節性疲軟。

But I expect that the Q1 may be quite good in orders.

但我預計第一季度的訂單可能會相當不錯。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, that was clear.

好的，這很清楚。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike McConnell of Pacific Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Pacific Securities 的 Mike McConnell。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Just to follow up on Mehdi's question, I wanted to see with the utilization -- the capacity slide in Q4 and you said utilization are going to be up.

只是為了跟進 Mehdi 的問題，我想看看利用率——第四季度的產能下滑，你說利用率會上升。

Does that mean starts will be up sequentially in Q4, to get the utilizations higher?

這是否意味著第四季度的開工率將依次上升，以提高利用率？

Or is it just you're trying to rebuild back to a normalized level for inventory and we shouldn't extrapolate starts being up from your customers which will lead to potential growth in Q1?

還是只是您正試圖將庫存恢復到正常化水平，我們不應該推斷您的客戶開始上漲，這將導致第一季度的潛在增長？

I just wanted to clarify that.

我只是想澄清一下。

No, I don't think that Q1 will be a potential growth quarter.

不，我認為第一季度不會是一個潛在的增長季度。

As I said Q1 is seasonally weak anyway for us.

正如我所說，無論如何，第一季度對我們來說都是季節性疲軟的。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

And just last question on 28-nanometer and how we should look at the ramp next year.

以及關於 28 納米的最後一個問題，以及我們應該如何看待明年的坡道。

You've talked a lot about tape-out activity being exceptionally strong for this node relative to some past leading-edge geometries.

你已經談了很多關於這個節點的流片活動相對於過去的一些前沿幾何來說異常強大。

Typically in the first year, generally for leading edge geometries, you'll see revenue at a negative rate in that first year, high single digits.

通常在第一年，通常對於領先的幾何形狀，您會看到第一年的收入為負數，高個位數。

Do you think that this time when you're looking at 28-nanometer and the amount of tape-out activity you have that you could be in a double-digit range as the negative rate in terms of percentage of revenue next year?

您是否認為這一次當您考慮 28 納米以及您擁有的流片活動量時，您可能會在明年收入百分比的負率範圍內處於兩位數的範圍內？

Well, we expect 28-nanometer to be ramping up continuously from this point on all through next year.

好吧，我們預計 28 納米將從現在一直持續到明年。

But remember 28-nanometer still is a relatively small percentage of wafer starts though.

但請記住，雖然 28 納米仍然是相對較小的晶圓開始比例。

Yes, starts.

是的，開始。

But revenue though, do you think it could be above 10% of the negative rate for next year?

但是收入，你認為它會超過明年負利率的 10% 以上嗎？

We'll have about 2% in the fourth quarter from 28-nanometer and we'll continue to go up --

我們將在第四季度從 28 納米獲得約 2%，我們將繼續上升——

2% this fourth quarter.

第四季度為 2%。

This fourth quarter 2% and by second half next year it will account for more than 10%.

今年第四季度為2%，到明年下半年將占到10%以上。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Donald Lu of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Donald Lu。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

My first question is you have been talking about 28-nanometer has a much higher CapEx intensity, much more expensive and so -- and on the other hand I would assume the wafer price will be a lot higher too.

我的第一個問題是您一直在談論 28 納米具有更高的資本支出強度，更昂貴等等 - 另一方面，我認為晶圓價格也會高得多。

And so one should we -- will we see if any positive impact on TSMC's ASP, on a systematic way because of the higher 28-nanometer and 40-nanometer mix?

那麼我們應該——我們是否會因為更高的 28 納米和 40 納米混合而以系統的方式看到對台積電的 ASP 是否有任何積極影響？

Yes.

是的。

Donald.

唐納德。

Yes, Donald.

是的，唐納德。

Certainly it will have a positive impact on our blended average price because it's higher price, 28-nanometer.

當然，它會對我們的混合平均價格產生積極影響，因為它的價格更高，28 納米。

How much impact well, now just as Lora said, the revenue impact will be 10% or more, more than 10% in the second half of next year.

影響多大呢，現在就像Lora說的，收入影響10%以上，明年下半年10%以上。

So you can figure out arithmetically.

所以你可以算出算術。

You can see that why it has a uplifting effect.

您可以看到為什麼它具有令人振奮的效果。

But our base is pretty big now, so the revenue impact is over 10% in the second half of next year.

但是我們現在的基數很大，所以明年下半年對收入的影響超過10%。

I think the first half of next year it will be smaller than that, so it can't have a too big impact.

我覺得明年上半年會比這個小，不會有太大的影響。

And that ASP change is already included in your revenue assumptions for next year?

ASP 的變化是否已經包含在您明年的收入假設中？

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

When you talk about your revenue will grow a few percentage points higher than the industry?

當你談到你的收入增長會比同行業高出幾個百分點？

Pardon me.

對不起。

Sorry.

對不起。

When you -- earlier you said TSMC's revenue growth next year might be a few percentage points higher than the industry and I assume that's already including this potential ASP effect.

當你 - 早些時候你說台積電明年的收入增長可能比行業高幾個百分點時，我認為這已經包括了這種潛在的 ASP 效應。

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Actually to tell the truth, Donald, I'm more confident of the growth in 28-nanometers than I am about the growth of everything else.

說實話，唐納德，我對 28 納米的增長比對其他一切的增長更有信心。

So yes, we have included the 28-nanometer numbers in my overall estimate and I think that I have taken a reasonably conservative approach on the rest of the portfolio, which is, by the way, 80%, 90% -- no, 90% -- more than 90% of the total.

所以是的，我們在我的總體估計中包含了 28 納米的數字，我認為我對其餘的投資組合採取了相當保守的方法，順便說一下，80%、90%——不，90 % -- 超過總數的 90%。

I think I am taking a reasonably conservative approach when I say that the total will be several points above 3% to 5%.

當我說總數將高於 3% 到 5% 時，我認為我採取了一種相當保守的方法。

Got it.

知道了。

And my second question is for Lora.

我的第二個問題是關於 Lora 的。

I think in the afternoon you had a very clear explanation on the margin change in terms of how much is from FX and other things.

我認為下午你對保證金變化有一個非常清楚的解釋，即外彙和其他東西的多少。

Can you please just repeat that so we can be sure we get the correct answer?

請您重複一遍，以便我們確定我們得到正確的答案嗎？

Donald, I think you're talking about the third quarter versus our fourth-quarter guidance.

唐納德，我認為你在談論第三季度與我們第四季度的指導。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

The margin difference.

邊際差異。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

If we were to take the midpoint of our fourth-quarter guidance the margin that I guided will be 44.5%.

如果我們採用第四季度指導的中點，我指導的利潤率將為 44.5%。

Compared with third quarter 42%, it's the 2.5 percentage higher.

與第三季度的 42% 相比，高出 2.5 個百分點。

On the 2.5% higher we have several factors.

在上漲 2.5% 時，我們有幾個因素。

Number one, a better cost in fourth quarter, this is 1.2%; better utilization, this is 0.7%; better foreign exchange rate, 1.7% and last, unfavorable product mix because we're ramping 28, this is a negative 1%.

第一，第四季度更好的成本，這是 1.2%；更好的利用率，這是 0.7%；更好的外匯匯率，1.7%，最後，不利的產品組合，因為我們正在增加 28，這是一個負 1%。

So if you add those four things up, you get roughly 2.5 percentage points.

所以如果你把這四件事加起來，你會得到大約 2.5 個百分點。

Right.

正確的。

And your US dollar assumption for Q4 is --

你對第四季度的美元假設是——

TWD30.3.

新台幣30.3。

TWD30.3, great.

TWD30.3，不錯。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Dan Heyler。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

Two quick questions; one for Lora and one for Dr.

兩個快速問題；一份給勞拉，一份給博士。

Chang.

常。

Lora, I wanted to double check my numbers on the fourth quarter revenue.

Lora，我想仔細檢查第四季度收入的數據。

With your revenue guidance to be down about 1% to 3% sequentially in 4Q and the TWD currency forecast to appreciate about 4%, that would mean your US dollar based decline is about 4%, if we assume the midpoint of your guidance.

由於您的收入指導在第四季度環比下降約 1% 至 3%，而新台幣貨幣預測將升值約 4%，這意味著如果我們假設您的指導的中點，您的美元下降約為 4%。

Would the shipments be down about that much and thereby helping inventory digestion, is that how we should think about this?

出貨量會下降這麼多，從而有助於消化庫存，我們應該這樣想嗎？

Actually --

實際上 -

Shipments are down a little less than that.

出貨量下降的幅度要小一些。

A little less.

少一點。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

So you've got a little bit of ASP decline.

所以你有一點點的ASP下降。

Not much.

不多。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess -- Dr.

然後我猜——博士。

Chang, thanks.

張，謝謝。

To follow up on (inaudible) question on FinFET because you did mention that TSMC contemplated deeply when to deploy FinFET, whether it would be '14 or earlier, I'm wondering why TSMC wouldn't deploy this basically just as quickly as possible, particularly since you guys have done so much work over the years in this process and the benefit to the [power] seem to be quite favorable.

跟進有關 FinFET 的（聽不清）問題，因為您確實提到台積電深入考慮過何時部署 FinFET，無論是 14 年或更早，我想知道為什麼台積電基本上不會盡快部署它，特別是因為你們這些年來在這個過程中做了很多工作，而且對[權力]的好處似乎是相當有利的。

So I'm wondering what the thought process is.

所以我想知道思考的過程是什麼。

Could this be something that you would try to deploy sooner and if so, why not?

這可能是您嘗試盡快部署的東西嗎？如果是，為什麼不呢？

Well, we have been working on FinFET for quite a few years.

好吧，我們已經在 FinFET 上工作了好幾年。

But I have to say that in FinFET we are somewhat behind Intel.

但我不得不說，在 FinFET 方面，我們在某種程度上落後於英特爾。

Now however we could try to catch up by accelerating FinFET and putting it on 20.

然而，現在我們可以嘗試通過加速 FinFET 並將其置於 20 上來迎頭趕上。

And the alternative is what we chose.

另一種選擇是我們選擇的。

The alternative is to find a way that our planar 20 can compete with Intel's FinFET 22 and delay the use of FinFET to the 14-nanometer generation.

另一種方法是找到一種方法，讓我們的平面 20 可以與英特爾的 FinFET 22 競爭，並將 FinFET 的使用延遲到 14 納米一代。

We will be more ready with FinFET when the 14 generation comes.

當第 14 代到來時，我們將為 FinFET 做好準備。

And we chose that alternative.

我們選擇了那個替代方案。

We believe our 20-nanometer planar in its ecosystem is competitive with Intel's 22 FinFET in Intel's ecosystem.

我們相信，我們在其生態系統中的 20 納米平面可與英特爾生態系統中的英特爾 22 FinFET 競爭。

We believe that.

我們相信。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

The ecosystem being also the design core as well, including (technical difficulty) arm as well, I presume.

生態系統也是設計核心，我想也包括（技術難度）手臂。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Szeho Ng of BNP.

您的下一個問題來自 BNP 的 Szeho Ng。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

Actually the question is about R&D.

其實問題是關於研發的。

R&D has gone up quite a lot last couple of quarters.

過去幾個季度的研發費用增長了很多。

Just want to know if this is the trend going forward or should we expect it to level off at some point in time?

只是想知道這是否是未來的趨勢，還是我們應該期望它在某個時間點趨於平穩？

That has been a deliberate policy to increase the R&D, both in amount and in percentage of revenue.

這是一項有意增加研發的政策，無論是在數量上還是在收入百分比上。

And my present thinking is to let R&D go up to about 9% of revenue, which is where it is almost at now.

而我目前的想法是讓研發佔收入的比例達到 9% 左右，這幾乎是現在的水平。

And now of course, as revenue grows, R&D amount will still grow.

當然，現在隨著收入的增長，研發量仍然會增長。

But my present thinking is to stabilize the R&D expenses at 9% of revenue.

但我現在的想法是把研發費用穩定在收入的9%。

Okay.

好的。

Another question is also on the [COWOS] assembly space.

另一個問題也是關於 [COWOS] 裝配空間的。

When would you expect it to be a bigger part of your business like 5% of revenue for example?

您預計它何時會成為您業務中更大的一部分，例如佔收入的 5%？

Well, I'll try to answer that question.

好吧，我會試著回答這個問題。

Really I expect -- I really can't quantify it -- I expect that the COWOS will have a significant impact on revenue only two, three years away.

我真的希望——我真的無法量化它——我預計 COWOS 將在兩三年後對收入產生重大影響。

In the next two or three years I do not believe -- I do not think that COWOS will have the significant impact on our revenue.

在接下來的兩三年內，我不相信 - 我認為 COWOS 不會對我們的收入產生重大影響。

Operator, in the interest of time we will only accommodate one more caller's question.

接線員，為了節省時間，我們只會再回答一位來電者的問題。

And you have a question from the line of Robert Lea of Jeffries.

你有一個來自 Jeffries 的 Robert Lea 的問題。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I know it's been a very long day for you.

我知道這對你來說是漫長的一天。

So I just wanted to ask, just looking at the costs Lora referred to the fact that costs down in Q4 will help the margin.

所以我只是想問一下，看看 Lora 提到的成本，第四季度的成本下降將有助於利潤率。

I just wondered if you can elaborate on that or if it's anything particular in terms of the de-bottlenecking or is it a general reduction in operating costs or manufacturing costs?

我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明這一點，或者在消除瓶頸方面是否有任何特別之處，或者是否普遍降低了運營成本或製造成本？

And also if we do a quick analysis of the non-depreciation costs per wafer in the third quarter, it did rise by about 6% or 7% Q over Q.

而且，如果我們對第三季度每片晶圓的非折舊成本進行快速分析，它確實比 Q 增加了約 6% 或 7%。

So I'm just wondering specifically what drove that increase.

所以我只是想知道具體是什麼推動了這種增長。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

The first part of your question is talking about a cost improvement.

您問題的第一部分是談論成本改進。

I was talking -- I was referring to the manufacturing costs when I said cost improvement.

我說的是——當我說成本改進時，我指的是製造成本。

There's two things that favor --- (multiple speakers)

有兩件事有利於---（多位發言者）

The cost improvement actually what I'm talking about is mainly the material wafer costs.

成本提升其實我說的主要是材料晶圓成本。

That had some improvement.

這有一些改善。

Also in the fourth quarter utility costs will be less than the third quarter compared to -- it will be less in utility costs.

此外，與第三季度相比，第四季度的公用事業成本將低於第三季度——公用事業成本將更低。

That's the two major items for the cost improvement.

這是成本改善的兩個主要項目。

Got it.

知道了。

And what exactly did drive the small increase in costs, non-depreciation costs that we saw in the third quarter?

究竟是什麼推動了我們在第三季度看到的成本和非折舊成本的小幅增長？

Within cost of goods sold.

在已售商品成本範圍內。

Okay.

好的。

Robert, I think in the third quarter compared to the second quarter we actually had higher utility costs because it's summer season.

羅伯特，我認為與第二季度相比，第三季度的公用事業成本實際上更高，因為它是夏季。

And secondly, because our utilization rate in third quarter is lower than the second quarter, so those non-depreciation fixed costs on a per wafer basis would be higher.

其次，由於我們第三季度的利用率低於第二季度，因此每個晶圓的非折舊固定成本會更高。

So that's why the manufacturing -- the so-called non-depreciation manufacturing costs was higher in third quarter compared to the second quarter.

這就是為什麼製造——所謂的非折舊製造成本在第三季度高於第二季度。

Got it, thanks very much.

明白了，非常感謝。

And a very quick follow-up question.

還有一個非常快速的後續問題。

Just if you draw parallels with the challenging experiences that the industry went through in '08, '09, what parallels are there at the moment, in terms of what your customers are saying sentiment-wise, I mean just your own gut feel?

如果你將行業在 08 年和 09 年所經歷的挑戰經驗相提並論，那麼目前有什麼相似之處，就你的客戶所說的情緒而言，我的意思是你自己的直覺？

And I guess you're looking for the industry to essentially recover next year.

而且我猜您正在尋找該行業在明年基本恢復。

To what extent -- how far are we in the bottoming process for the industry based on where we are today?

在多大程度上——基於我們今天的情況，我們在行業的底部過程中走了多遠？

And when does that inflexion point come?

拐點何時到來？

I know this has been referred to earlier on in the call.

我知道這在前面的電話中已經提到過。

Essentially are we looking for the business and the industry to rebound into the second quarter?

本質上，我們是在尋找業務和行業反彈到第二季度嗎？

Well, it's I think it's problematic to try to predict the future on the basis of what happened in the past.

嗯，我認為試圖根據過去發生的事情來預測未來是有問題的。

But I -- you know in the '08, '09 situation, the depth of the plunge was much greater.

但是我——你知道，在 08 年、09 年的情況下，暴跌的深度要大得多。

And the plunge was just for two quarters -- fourth quarter of '08 and the first quarter of '09.

暴跌只持續了兩個季度——08 年第四季度和 09 年第一季度。

And then in the second quarter of '09 there was a surge -- a surge began.

然後在 09 年的第二季度出現了激增——激增開始了。

And the surge was very strong.

而且浪湧非常強烈。

And it continued to the third quarter and then sort of stabilized a little bit from the fourth quarter on.

它一直持續到第三季度，然後從第四季度開始有點穩定。

But it continued to grow actually.

但實際上它還在繼續增長。

But the slope of the surge obviously became gentler from the fourth quarter -- from fourth quarter '09 on.

但從 09 年第四季度開始，激增的斜率顯然從第四季度開始變得更加平緩。

So that was the experience.

這就是經驗。

Now if you try to draw a exact analog here I would think that in the first quarter of next year we will start to get orders, strong orders and revenue will probably begin to surge in the second quarter of next year.

現在，如果您嘗試在這裡進行精確的類比，我認為明年第一季度我們將開始獲得訂單，強勁的訂單和收入可能會在明年第二季度開始激增。

Again I mean that -- as I said earlier it's problematic to draw conclusions, to draw predictions about the future from experience in the past.

我的意思是——正如我之前所說，從過去的經驗中得出關於未來的預測是有問題的。

Because I guess the overall read is, for both yourselves and many other companies in the sector, although things are maybe getting incrementally worse, so nowhere near a comparison with the '08/'09 situation and actually in some respects things are holding up remarkably well despite all the frightening headlines in the newspaper and on CNN.

因為我想總體而言，對於你們自己和該行業的許多其他公司來說，儘管情況可能會變得越來越糟，所以與 08/09 年的情況相去甚遠，實際上在某些方面情況非常好好吧，儘管報紙和 CNN 上有所有可怕的頭條新聞。

I think the frightening headlines in CNN and newspapers -- you're talking about American newspapers, I assume.

我認為 CNN 和報紙上令人恐懼的頭條新聞——我猜你說的是美國報紙。

I think they are about the general economy and semiconductor is little different.

我認為它們與一般經濟有關，而半導體幾乎沒有什麼不同。

Semiconductor is a little different because we -- I think we do have a killer app just emerging and that's the mobile product.

半導體有點不同，因為我們——我認為我們確實有一個剛剛出現的殺手級應用程序，那就是移動產品。

So that's our new killer app.

這就是我們的新殺手級應用。

And then I think TSMC is even a little more different than the semiconductor so.

然後我認為台積電甚至比半導體更不同。

Yes, the frightening news I think is probably true.

是的，我認為這個可怕的消息可能是真的。

The world economy I think doesn't look very good.

我認為世界經濟看起來不太好。

Okay.

好的。

Well, it certainly seems your business is holding up well.

好吧，看來您的業務發展良好。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, Robert.

謝謝你，羅伯特。

Well, I think this concludes our Q&A session and thank you for joining us today.

好吧，我想我們的問答環節到此結束，感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Thank you, goodnight.

謝謝，晚安。

Before we conclude TSMC's 3Q '11 results webcast conference call today, please be advised that the replay of this conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們今天結束台積電 11 年第三季度業績網絡廣播電話會議之前，請注意，本次電話會議的重播只能通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 訪問。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。