台積電 ADR (TSM) 2011 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's 3Q '11 results broadcast conference call. This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com and only in audio mode. Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations.

歡迎參加台積電 2011 年第三季業績播報電話會議。本次電話會議透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播，且僅提供音訊模式。您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。現在我想將會議交給博士。台積電投資者關係主管孫文儀。

Thank you, Andrea. Good morning and good evening, everyone. Welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2011 conference call. Joining us on the call are Dr. Morris Chang, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Ms. Lora Ho, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，安德里亞。大家早安，晚上好。歡迎參加台積電2011年第三季電話會議。與我們一起參加電話會議的還有 Dr.我們的董事長兼執行長張忠謀女士和Lora Ho，我們的資深副總裁兼財務長。

The format for today's conference call will be as follows. First, Lora will summarize our operations in the third quarter and give you our guidance for the next quarter. Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Chang will provide his general remark on the business outlook and a couple of key messages. Then we will open the floor to questions.

今天的電話會議形式如下。首先，Lora 將總結我們第三季的營運情況，並為大家提供下一季的指導。隨後，台積電董事長兼執行長李彥宏博士發表致詞。張將對商業前景發表總體評論並傳達幾個關鍵訊息。然後我們將開始回答問題。

For those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

對於尚未收到新聞稿的參與者，可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。請同時下載與今天的季度審查報告相關的摘要投影片。

I would like to remind all listeners that the following discussion may contain forward-looking statements that subject to significant risks and uncertainty which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 15, 2011, and such other documents as TSMC may file with, or submit to the SEC from time to time. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

我想提醒所有聽眾，以下討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與台積電前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的信息，可在台積電 2011 年 4 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表年度報告以及台積電可能不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Lora.

現在我想將電話轉給 Lora。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning and good evening to everyone. Welcome to our 2011 third-quarter earnings conference call. I will start with the financial highlights in the third quarter then I will move on to the outlook for the fourth quarter. All dollars presented are in TWD unless otherwise stated.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。大家早安，晚上好。歡迎參加我們的2011年第三季財報電話會議。我會先介紹第三季的財務亮點，然後再介紹第四季的展望。除非另有說明，所有美元均以新台幣 (TWD) 為單位。

In the third quarter, our revenue was higher than the guidance provided on July 28, thanks to some rush orders in August and more favorable exchange rate. Third-quarter revenues decreased 3.6% sequentially to TWD106.5b. And wafer shipments decreased 3% (sic - see presentation) to 3.2m eight-inch equivalent wafers.

第三季度，由於8月份的一些緊急訂單和更有利的匯率，我們的收入高於7月28日提供的指引。第三季營收季減3.6%至1065億新台幣。晶圓出貨量下降 3% (原文如此 - 參見介紹) 至 320 萬片八吋當量晶圓。

Our wafer demand was affected by weakened global economic conditions and customers' inventory adjustment. Computer and consumer-related revenues was more affected and decreased by 16% and 18% respectively, whereas communication and industrial increased by 3% and 9% from the second quarter.

我們的晶圓需求受到全球經濟狀況疲軟和客戶庫存調整的影響。電腦和消費相關收入受到的影響更大，分別下降了16％和18％，而通訊和工業收入則比第二季度增長了3％和9％。

Overall, communication accounted for 48% of our total wafer revenue in this quarter while computer, consumer and industrial accounted for 21%, 10% and 21% of our wafer sales respectively.

整體來看，本季通訊業務占我們晶圓總收入的 48%，而電腦、消費和工業業務分別占我們晶圓銷售額的 21%、10% 和 21%。

By technology, demand for 40-nanometer and below technologies held up relatively well and reached 27% of wafer revenue in third quarter, including 0.5% from 28-nanometer. And we expect our 28-nanometer ramp to accelerate in the next few quarters.

從技術角度來看，40奈米及以下技術的需求保持相對較好，第三季達到晶圓收入的27%，其中28奈米佔0.5%。我們預計未來幾季我們的 28 奈米技術將加速發展。

Combined contribution from 65-nanometer and below represented 54% of our total wafer sales in the third quarter, which is 1 percentage point lower than the second quarter, as revenue from the 65 node decreased by 2 percentage points in the third quarter.

第三季度，65奈米及以下製程的總貢獻占我們晶圓銷售額的54%，比第二季度下降1個百分點，因為第三季度65節點的收入下降了2個百分點。

Gross margin was 42% and operating margin was 29.7%. The sequential decline in margin was mainly due to lower utilization.

毛利率為42%，營業利益率為29.7%。利潤率連續下降主要是因為利用率下降。

Operating expense increased 1.4% from the previous quarter, mainly due to higher R&D spending on 20-nanometer and higher patent filing fees. In the future we will continue increase R&D spending to expand our lead in technology and keep SG&A tight at the same time.

營業費用較上一季增加1.4%，主要由於20奈米研發支出增加及專利申請費用增加。未來我們將持續加大研發投入，擴大技術領先優勢，同時控制銷售、一般及行政開支。

Overall our third quarter net margin arrived at 28.5%. EPS was TWD1.17.

總體而言，我們第三季的淨利潤率達到 28.5%。每股收益為1.17新台幣。

In line with what we said in the last conference, we have successfully reduced the inventory level during this quarter. Our inventory turnover days significantly reduced by eight days to the Company's normal level of 45 days, mainly reflecting lower inventory levels in finished goods and work in process inventories.

正如我們上次會議上所說的那樣，我們在本季成功降低了庫存水準。我們的庫存週轉天數大幅減少了八天，降至公司 45 天的正常水平，主要反映了成品和在製品庫存水平的下降。

Cash from operations totaled TWD55b. Free cash flow was TWD17b during the quarter, up from an outflow of TWD1.8b in the second quarter due to less capital expenditure.

經營活動現金總額為550億新台幣。由於資本支出減少，本季自由現金流為 170 億新台幣，高於第二季的 18 億新台幣流出。

Combined with TWD78b cash dividend payment and TWD18b proceeds from a corporate bond issuance, our cash and short-term investments decreased TWD39b to TWD120b.

加上派發的780億新台幣現金股利及發行公司債所得的180億新台幣，我們的現金及短期投資減少了390億新台幣至1200億新台幣。

In light of weakened demand we decided to further revise down 2011 capital expenditure to $7.3b. Total capital expenditure in the first three quarters reached $6.3b.

有鑑於需求疲軟，我們決定進一步下調2011年資本支出至73億美元。前三個季度的總資本支出達到 63 億美元。

As a result of the adjustment, our total capacity would be flat in the fourth quarter. Full-year total capacity will increase 17% to 13.2m 8-inch equivalent wafers while 12-inch wafer capacity will increase by 29%.

經過調整，我們的總產能在第四季將保持持平。全年總產能將增加17%至1,320萬片8吋當量晶圓，而12吋晶圓產能將增加29%。

Now let's turn to the outlook for the fourth quarter. Based on current business expectations and the forecast exchange rate of TWD30.3 we expect our consolidated revenues in the fourth quarter to come in between TWD103b and TWD105b. In terms of margins, we expect our fourth quarter gross margin to be between 43.5% and 45.5%. Operating margin to be between 30% and 32%.

現在我們來看看第四季的展望。根據目前的業務預期和30.3新台幣的預測匯率，我們預計第四季度的綜合收入將在1,030億新台幣至1,050億新台幣之間。就利潤率而言，我們預計第四季的毛利率在43.5％至45.5％之間。營業利益率在30%至32%之間。

The reason for the lower revenue guidance but higher margin guidance is due to the following reasons. Number one, in fourth quarter we have better cost control so the cost saving contribute to margin improvement. Also the fourth-quarter utilization will be slightly higher than the third quarter. In addition to that, the exchange rate in fourth quarter is higher than third quarter which is favorable to the Company. The three favorable will be offset slightly by an unfavorable product mix due to the ramping of 28-nanometer.

收入預期較低但利潤率預期較高的原因如下。第一，第四季我們的成本控制得更好，因此成本節省有助於提高利潤率。第四季的利用率也將略高於第三季。此外，第四季的匯率高於第三季度，這對公司有利。由於28奈米技術的量產，上述三個有利因素將被不利的產品組合稍微抵消。

This concludes my remarks today. Now I would like to turn the call over to Dr. Morris Chang our Chairman and CEO for his remarks.

我今天的發言就到此結束。現在我想把電話轉給博士。我們感謝董事長兼執行長張忠謀的演講。

Hi, everyone. I'm Morris Chang, CEO of TSMC. I want first to talk about the world semiconductor market and foundry market this year. The weakening world economic outlook has impacted the demand for semiconductors. We now forecast this year's world semiconductor growth at 1%. We had forecast 5% in January and 2% in April, and we now forecast only 1% growth for world semiconductor market this year. And we have also trimmed our forecast for semiconductor foundry revenue growth to 10% -- I'm sorry, to 4% this year. We had forecast for 7% as late as July. All these are in US dollars. Now TSMC's growth this year in US dollars will be 9%.

大家好。我是台積電執行長張忠謀。首先我想談談今年的世界半導體市場和代工市場。世界經濟前景疲軟影響了半導體的需求。我們現在預測今年全球半導體的成長率為1%。我們一月預測為5%，四月預測為2%，現在我們預測今年全球半導體市場僅成長1%。我們也將今年半導體代工收入成長預測下調至 10%——抱歉，是 4%。我們七月就曾預測該成長率將達到 7%。所有這些都是以美元計算的。現在台​​積電今年的成長率以美元計算是9%。

I want to talk about the supply chain inventory. In the last quarterly conference, we said that the excess inventory in the semiconductor supply chain will be mostly digested in 3Q, and that DOI will be at its seasonal level by the end of 3Q. We also said that TSMC's utilization rate will be higher in 4Q compared to 3Q. These statements hold true today.

我想談談供應鏈庫存。我們在上一季報中表示，半導體供應鏈的過剩庫存將在第三季基本消化，到第三季末，DOI 將恢復到季節性水準。我們也表示，台積電第四季的利用率將比第三季更高。這些言論至今依然正確。

The supply chain inventory is estimated to be 3 days below seasonal at the end of 3Q. And TSMC has reduced our own DOI by 8 days to 45 days in 3Q which is about our normal level. However the increasing uncertainty of future demand has continued to prompt IC vendors, namely our customers, to de-stock. We believe this effective supply chain DOI will be further reduced to several days below seasonal by the end of 4Q. We do expect our fourth-quarter utilization level rate to be slightly higher than 3Q.

預計第三季末供應鏈庫存將比季節性庫存少 3 天。台積電在第三季將自己的DOI縮短了8天，至45天，這大約是我們的正常水平。然而，未來需求的不確定性日益增加，繼續促使 IC 供應商（即我們的客戶）去庫存。我們相信，到第四季末，這個有效的供應鏈DOI將進一步縮短至低於季節性的幾天。我們確實預計第四季度的利用率將略高於第三季。

Now I would like to talk about our competitive strengths. In these economic uncertain times, TSMC's competitive position is stronger than ever. Our technology development is progressing well. And I'll talk about a few of them here.

現在我想談談我們的競爭優勢。在經濟不確定的時期，台積電的競爭地位比以往任何時候都強。我們的技術開發進展順利。我將在這裡談論其中的幾個。

First 28-nanometer, our 28-nanometer process is in volume production. More than 40,000 12-inch wafers will be shipped to customers in the next few months. And we anticipate the ramp next year will be fast. Three out of the four 28-nanometer process offerings are in volume production. They are 28HP, HPL and LP. The remaining version 28HPM will be ready for production by end of this year.

首先是28奈米，我們的28奈米製程已經量產。未來幾個月將有超過4萬片12吋晶圓運送給客戶。我們預計明年的成長將會很快。四種 28 奈米製程產品中有三種均已投入量產。它們分別是 28HP、HPL 和 LP。剩餘版本28HPM將在今年底投入生產。

Our 28-nanometer process has surpassed the previous generations' production ramps at the same point in time. And product yield continues to improve and is on track. We expect 28-nanometer to be an important engine of our growth next year, since we are the first and only foundry to volume produce 28-nanometer. We not only demonstrated our leadership in technology, but also provide arsenal for our customers for their design wins with competitive products.

我們的28奈米製程已經超越了前幾代同時代的生產速度。產品良率持續提升，步入正軌。我們預計 28 奈米將成為我們明年成長的重要引擎，因為我們是第一個也是唯一一家批量生產 28 奈米的代工廠。我們不僅展示了我們在技術上的領先地位，還為客戶提供了具有競爭力的產品設計勝利所需的武器庫。

Now a few words on 20-nanometer. Our 20-nanometer development is on track and demonstrated a fully functional SRAM. Multiple customers have already engaged for more than a year with TSMC on the development of 20-nanometer. We plan two offerings for the 20-nanometer process; 20G for high performance products such as CPU, GPU and server and 20SoC for high performance and low-leakage products such as mobile computing devices. Risk production for 20-nanometer G is scheduled for 3Q '12, next year. And risk production for 20-nanometer SoC will start in January of 2013.

現在就 20 奈米談談幾點。我們的 20 奈米開發進展順利，並展示了功能齊全的 SRAM。多家客戶與台積電合作開發 20 奈米技術一年多。我們計劃為 20 奈米製程提供兩款產品；20G 適用於CPU、GPU、伺服器等高效能產品，20SoC適用於行動運算設備等高效能低洩漏產品。20奈米G的風險生產預定於明年第三季進行。20奈米SoC的風險生產將於2013年1月啟動。

We are world's first and only foundry to complete the tape-out of 20-nanometer ARM-Cortex A15 MP core processor which is high performance for future mobile computing product. We have also started the development of 14-nanometer thin [patch]. The device path-finding has been ongoing for more than one year. And we plan to risk start our 14-nanometer process in 2014.

我們是世界上第一家也是唯一一家完成 20 奈米 ARM-Cortex A15 MP 核心處理器流片的代工廠，該處理器具有適用於未來行動運算產品的高效能。我們也已經開始開發14奈米薄[貼片]。該設備的尋路工作已經進行了一年多了。我們計劃在 2014 年冒險啟動我們的 14 奈米製程。

A few words on COWOS. It stands for chip on wafer on substrate. Last quarter I showed you a framework for subsystem integration through silicon interposer. This time I'm able to show you the picture of the actual test chips. Let's view that one. The larger chip and the DRAM chips or cubes are placed on top of the silicon interposer. This is COW, chip on wafer, and then packaged on a substrate. This is COWOS, chip on wafer on substrate. We have achieved very good yields and obtained encouraging reliability on these test vehicle.

關於 COWOS 的一些話。它代表基板上晶圓上的晶片。上個季度我向您展示了透過矽中介層進行子系統整合的框架。這次我可以向你們展示實際測試晶片的圖片。我們來看看那個。較大的晶片和 DRAM 晶片或立方體被放置在矽中介層的頂部。這是COW，即晶圓上的晶片，然後封裝在基板上。這是 COWOS（基板上的晶圓上的晶片）。我們在這些測試車輛上取得了非常好的產量並獲得了令人鼓舞的可靠性。

The process flow for COWOS is shown on the next viewgraph. The advantages of COWOS indicate the resolution for warpage and the thin wafer issues. A clear ownership of the long process flow, simplifies supply chain in shorter cycle time. The improvement on yield, cost reduction and reliability can be continuous, efficient and effective. With this COWOS technology, our business model is such that we will provide service in, one, top die logic wafer process, wafer sort, and microbumping. And two, integrate the back-end assembly solution or interposer wafer, final assembly and final test. We do not plan to sell just the interposer.

下圖顯示了 COWOS 的流程。COWOS的優點在於解決了翹曲和薄晶圓問題。明確長流程的所有權，簡化供應鏈並在更短的週期時間內完成。產量、成本降低和可靠性的改進可以是持續的、高效的和有效的。憑藉這項 COWOS 技術，我們的商業模式是提供一站式服務，包括頂層邏輯晶圓製程、晶圓分類和微凸塊製造。二是整合後端組裝解決方案或中介晶圓、最終組裝和最終測試。我們不打算只銷售中介層。

A few words on embedded Flash. Our business in embedded Flash has grown by 30% to a level close to TWD800m this year thanks to the strong growth in smartphones and tablets. Battery management IC as well as touch sense controllers enjoy the highest growth within the embedded Flash segment. TSMC's 0.18-micron embedded Flash with complete platform solution saw record level of new product tape outs this year. Our 90-nanometer embedded Flash has started production ramp this year. 65-nanometer joint development programs and 90-nanometer phase in MCU have been established. And we expect to launch 40-nanometer embedded Flash program in 4Q this year.

關於嵌入式 Flash 的一些話。今年，由於智慧型手機和平板電腦的強勁成長，我們的嵌入式Flash業務成長了30%，達到近8億新台幣的水平。電池管理IC以及觸控感應控制器在嵌入式快閃記憶體領域成長最快。台積電0.18微米嵌入式快閃記憶體完整平台解決方案今年的新產品流片數量創下了歷史新高。我們的90奈米嵌入式快閃記憶體今年已開始量產。65奈米聯合開發計劃和90奈米MCU階段均已建立。並預計今年第四季推出40奈米嵌入式Flash專案。

Now a few words about next year's semiconductor and TSMC outlook. We expect next year's semiconductor growth, semiconductor market to grow 3% to 5% over this year. TSMC, with 28 high ramp up constituting our important engine for growth, will grow several points higher than the semiconductor market. All these, of course, in US dollars.

現在就明年的半導體和台積電的前景談幾句。我們預計明年的半導體將成長，半導體市場將比今年成長3%到5%。台積電28座高產能將構成我們重要的成長引擎，其成長率將比半導體市場高出幾個百分點。當然，所有這些都是以美元計算的。

Now a few words on capital expenditure, CapEx. We have two opposite forces in action here. We have a relatively soft growth outlook in the semiconductor market. And yet we are going to ramp up our 28-nanometer very fast next year. Now this year we have already trimmed our 2011 capital spending to $7.3b, as Lora just told you. It is $100m less than we announced last quarter. For next year we plan to reduce our 2012 capital spending. It will be at a lower level than this year's.

現在就資本支出 (CapEx) 談幾句。這裡有兩種相反的力量在運作。我們對半導體市場的成長前景相對疲軟。但我們明年將快速推進 28 奈米技術。正如 Lora 剛才告訴大家的，今年我們已經將 2011 年的資本支出削減至 73 億美元。這比我們上個季度宣布的少了 1 億美元。明年我們計劃減少2012年的資本支出。它將比今年的水平更低。

Those are all the prepared comments I have.

以上就是我準備好的所有評論。

This concludes our prepared statements. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

我們的準備好的聲明到此結束。接線員，請開始提問。

At this time we will open the floor for questions. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

現在我們將開始接受提問。（操作員指令）。您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的蘭迪艾布拉姆斯（Randy Abrams）。

Yes, hi and good evening. I wanted to ask a couple of follow ups on the COWOS and 3D packaging. The first one, if you think it makes more sense to vertically integrate more and offer more of the traditional back-end assembly and tests, even beyond some of the 3D packaging.

是的，你好，晚上好。我想問一些關於 COWOS 和 3D 包裝的後續問題。第一個，如果你認為垂直整合並提供更多傳統後端組裝和測試更有意義，甚至超越一些 3D 封裝。

Will we consider even a further integration?

我們會考慮進一步整合嗎？

Yes, further, so doing more of the back end. You're starting to move into wafer level packaging and 2.5D and 3D --

是的，更進一步，因此做更多的後端工作。你開始進入晶圓級封裝和 2.5D 和 3D 領域——

Yes.

是的。

Packaging. But just, more broadly, do you think back-end assembly and tests is an area that you could vertically integrate even more, a more full suite of steps there.

包裝。但從更廣泛的角度來看，您是否認為後端組裝和測試是一個可以進一步垂直整合的領域，可以有更完整的步驟？

At this point, from the business point of view -- we are not at this point from the business point of view we are not considering further than what we already have told you. Now however we have quite a large 3D group on research. So they are constantly looking at the possibility of further integration.

目前，從業務角度來看——我們還沒有到達這個地步，我們不會考慮超出我們已經告訴您的範圍的事情。然而現在我們有一個相當大的 3D 研究小組。因此他們一直在尋找進一步融合的可能性。

Okay. With the COWOS process, which technology node would you see this getting adopted? And maybe if you can think of how broad the application would scale across your business.

好的。透過 COWOS 流程，您認為哪個技術節點會採用它？也許您可以想像這個應用程式在您的業務中可以擴展到多大範圍。

I think that it would start in 28-nanometer and that it will be bigger in 20-nanometer.

我認為它將從 28 奈米開始，並且在 20 奈米時會變得更大。

Okay. And to get a sense of how you're planning coming out of this inventory de-stocking, well, 2009 we had a strong rebound. Are you planning to build -- I guess, for your planning, are you trying to put in place buffer capacity, particularly on 28-nanometer, in the event we have a speed-up recovery, or do you want to take a conservative approach given what you see out there?

好的。為了了解您計劃如何擺脫庫存去化，2009 年我們經歷了強勁反彈。您是否打算建造——我想，對於您的規劃，您是否試圖建立緩衝容量，特別是在 28 奈米上，以防我們加速恢復，或者您是否想根據您所看到的情況採取保守的方法？

At this point we are taking the conservative approach. Now -- and I really don't expect a strong surge, if there is a surge. Well I think there will be a increase. There will be a surge. And I really -- but I don't expect that surge to be as strong as the one we saw in second and third quarters of 2009.

目前我們採取的是保守的做法。現在——如果出現激增的話，我真的不認為會出現強勁的激增。嗯，我認為會增加。將會有一個激增。我確實——但我不認為這種成長會像 2009 年第二季和第三季那樣強勁。

Okay. The last question I had was just on -- there were comments the press had about [oneID] and Panasonic, but a few others have discussed outsourcing more. It's been very gradual over time, but are you starting to see any acceleration in outsourcing in that market.

好的。我的最後一個問題是——媒體對 [oneID] 和松下有一些評論，但其他一些人則更多地討論了外包。隨著時間的推移，這一進程非常緩慢，但您是否開始看到該市場外包業務加速發展？

Yes I can. I'm not going to comment on any specific customer, but the answer to your question is yes.

是的，我可以。我不會對任何特定客戶發表評論，但對你的問題的答案是肯定的。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo of HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的史蒂芬‧佩拉約 (Steven Pelayo)。

I'm curious about your guidance. You're guiding for utilization rates to increase, a little bit more of a tailwind from currency, yet total revenues to decline 1% to 3% or so. It seems to me that that would mean that your ASPs have to be falling off quite a bit. So could you help me reconcile that and maybe talk about pricing both in terms of like for like and mix?

我對您的指導很感興趣。您預計利用率將會上升，貨幣因素將帶來一些推動作用，但總收入將下降 1% 到 3% 左右。在我看來，這意味著您的 ASP 必須下降相當多。那麼，您能幫我調解一下這個問題嗎，也許可以從同類價格和混合價格的角度來討論定價呢？

Steven, the fourth quarter we will ramp 28-nanometer. So if you talk about from the Company-wide average ASP point of view, it will support it. It will go up because of 28-nanometer. Other than that, I just described, the fourth quarter revenue decline just slightly, with the support of FX which will be 4% appreciation versus third quarter, so about -- eventually settling to about 4% of revenue. Did I answer your questions?

史蒂文，第四季我們將推出 28 奈米製程。因此，如果從全公司平均 ASP 的角度來談論，它會支持它。由於28奈米，其價格將會上漲。除此之外，我剛才描述了，第四季的收入略有下降，在外匯的支持下，與第三季相比將升值 4%，所以最終穩定在收入的 4% 左右。我回答你的問題了嗎？

I guess it still doesn't really add up that much. Without the currency impact your revenue guidance would have been something lower and how do I reconcile that with rising utilization rates? To me the one missing component was ASP. So I was trying to understand.

我想這仍然沒有太大意義。如果沒有貨幣影響，您的收入預期可能會更低一些，我該如何將其與不斷上升的利用率相協調？對我來說，唯一缺少的組件是 ASP。所以我嘗試去理解。

Let me -- I think you probably didn't hear my statements on -- my prediction actually on last time -- three months ago. I actually predicted that the fourth quarter utilization will be higher than the third quarter even though the revenue would be flattish or might even be down. The reason I made a prediction -- and it has come true -- the reason I made a prediction was that we reduce our own inventory in the third quarter. And by reducing the inventory, naturally the utilization was held low. Now our own inventory reduction has been completed at the end of September. And in the fourth quarter then our utilization reflects a normal mode of operation. You see, when you're reducing inventory, you have to make less stuff; therefore, your utilization is low. Now after your inventory reduction has been completed, then you have to make stuff normally. Therefore your utilization comes up. Does that make sense?

讓我——我想你可能沒有聽到我的陳述——實際上是我上次的預測——三個月前。實際上，我預測儘管收入持平甚至可能下降，但第四季的利用率將高於第三季。我之所以做出預測——而這個預測已經成真——是因為我們會在第三季減少自己的庫存。透過減少庫存，利用率自然就保持在較低水準。現在我們自己的去庫存工作已經在9月底完成了。在第四季度，我們的利用率體現出正常的營運模式。你瞧，當你減少庫存時，你就必須生產更少的東西；因此，您的利用率很低。現在，您的庫存減少完成後，您就必須正常生產了。因此你的利用率就提高了。這樣有道理嗎？

Now I understand. Now it makes a lot of sense. Thank you for restating that again.

現在我明白了。現在一切都變得很有意義了。感謝您再次重申這一點。

I'm trying to understand a little bit with this COWOS process, you said it starts in 28-nanometer. Could you just give us a general idea of the number of customer engagements you have, or designs you're working with, or some way that we can try to quantify the potential impact next year and beyond I guess?

我試著稍微了解一下 COWOS 工藝，您說它從 28 奈米開始。您能否大致向我們介紹一下您與客戶接觸的數量，或者您正在進行的設計，或者我們可以嘗試量化明年及以後的潛在影響？

I think the -- well, customers. We are actually not working with a large number -- well, we are working with several customers on the development phase. We are working with several customers on the development phase. The impact to us, revenue-side impact to us will be minimal even next year. So the 28 is going to run for quite a long time. So I do think that COWOS will start with 28. And I think that we are already working with a few customers also on the 20-nanometer process. So by the time 20-nanometer is in volume production, I think the impact on revenue will be reasonably significant. I can't --

我認為——嗯，是顧客。我們實際上並沒有與大量客戶合作——好吧，我們正在與幾個客戶進行開發階段的合作。我們正與多位客戶進行開發上的合作。即使到明年，對我們的收入方面的影響也將是微不足道的。因此 28 將會運作相當長一段時間。所以我確實認為 COWOS 將以 28 開始。我認為我們已經與一些客戶合作研發 20 奈米製程。因此，當 20 奈米投入批量生產時，我認為對收入的影響將相當顯著。我不能——

I understand.

我明白。

I can't quantify it beyond that.

我無法進一步量化它。

And if I could just sneak in one final one, today you mentioned that the depreciation would grow about 23% this year, but next year would be something lower. Given that we're all a little concerned about margin impacts from higher depreciation, can you quantify a bit more maybe on what you think depreciation growth would be besides just lower than 23% next year?

如果我可以偷偷說最後一個問題的話，今天您提到今年的折舊額將增長約 23％，但明年的折舊額將會更低。鑑於我們都有些擔心更高折舊對利潤率的影響，您能否更量化一下，除了明年低於 23% 之外，您認為折舊增長率還會是多少？

We haven't finished, currently, a decision on the CapEx for 2012 depending on how much 28-nanometer we want to build. But with the last CapEx for next year we believe the depreciation year-over-year increase will be less than 20%.

目前，我們尚未根據要生產多少 28 奈米產品來決定 2012 年的資本支出。但考慮到明年的最後一筆資本支出，我們相信折舊年增率將低於 20%。

She said less than 20%. And let me say this. Of course the ideal situation financially is for the increase of depreciation to be below the increase of revenue. Now you have to keep in mind that depreciation is accounted in TWD even though the expenditure is largely in US dollars. But once we get the equipment, once we install the equipment, the depreciation base is in TWD. So the depreciation cost is in TWD.

她說不到20％。讓我這麼說吧。當然，從財務角度來說，理想的情況是折舊的增幅低於收入的增幅。現在您必須記住，儘管支出大部分是以美元計算的，但折舊是以新台幣計算的。但是一旦我們拿到設備，一旦我們安裝好設備，折舊基數就是新台幣。因此折舊成本以新台幣 (TWD) 計算。

Now the -- so on that basis this year our revenue increased in TWD. It's not very great. It's almost flat isn't it? It's almost flat. And yet we had a depreciation increase of 23%. That is certainly far from ideal. Now next year, I said earlier that I expect our US dollar revenue growth will be several points more than 3% to 5%. So we certainly would like to think that the TWD revenue growth will be comparable and that's assuming the exchange rate doesn't vary that much. Now if the TWD growth is in the -- TWD revenue growth is in the, let's say, 6% to 8% range, 6% to 8% range and depreciation increase is less than 20%, then that's a heck of a lot better situation than we have this year. Does that make sense?

現在 — — 因此，基於此，今年我們的新台幣收入有所增加。這不是很好。它幾乎是平的不是嗎？它幾乎是平的。但折舊卻增加了23%。這當然遠非理想。現在明年，我剛才說過，我預計我們的美元收入成長將比 3% 到 5% 高出幾個百分點。因此，我們當然希望認為新台幣的收入成長將是可比的，並且假設匯率變化不大。現在，如果新台幣的成長——新台幣的收入成長在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內，6% 到 8% 的範圍內，而折舊增幅低於 20%，那麼這比今年的情況要好得多。這樣有道理嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of (multiple speakers).

您的下一個問題來自（多位發言者）。

I'm sorry. I was hoping that the gentleman --

對不起。我希望這位先生——

Yes. Andrea, I think you cut off Steven's line and Chairman is asking if Steven is satisfied with that answer.

是的。安德里亞，我想你打斷了史蒂文的話，主席正在問史蒂文是否對這個答案感到滿意。

If you can still hear me, yes, I'm satisfied, thank you. Yes, I'm satisfied. Thank you for taking the time. I really appreciate it.

如果您還能聽到我的聲音，是的，我很滿意，謝謝。是的，我很滿意。感謝您抽出時間。我非常感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Thanks for taking my question. Dr. Chang, I want to ask you about the trend on the technology side. Your up-and-coming competitors are obviously moving towards 32-nanometer and planning to have pilot run for 28-nanometer sometime next year. But they are still on a gate-first while TSMC is gate-last. Is this something that do you think people still haven't really understood the differences? Is this something that could really set TSMC apart from these new competitors? And anything else that you can offer would be appreciated. And I have a follow-up question.

感謝您回答我的問題。博士張先生，我想問您一下技術方面的趨勢。您的新興競爭對手顯然正在朝著 32 奈米技術邁進，並計劃在明年某個時候試運行 28 奈米技術。但是他們仍是採用先閘極技術，而台積電是後閘極技術。您認為人們是否仍未真正理解其中的差異？這是否真的能讓台積電從這些新競爭對手中脫穎而出？如果您能提供任何其他幫助，我們將不勝感激。我還有一個後續問題。

The most important people who understand are the customers. And I believe that our customers unanimously understand that the gate-last approach is the superior.

最重要的理解者是客戶。我相信我們的客戶一致認為後門式方法更為優越。

But when you say customers, obviously designers prefer gate-last. But then when it comes to cost, gate-first offers some advantages if you can resolve the yield issues. So when you say customers, does that refer to the decision-makers or the people who are actually involved with the product design?

但是當您說到客戶時，顯然設計師更喜歡最後採用閘極技術。但是當涉及成本時，如果能夠解決產量問題，那麼先閘極技術將具有一些優勢。那麼當您說客戶時，是指決策者還是實際參與產品設計的人？

Well, it's certainly not obvious to me at all that gate-first offers even cost advantage. I believe that superficially it seems to be a simple process. And yet, there's a big difference between a simple process and lower cost because the simpler process may be harder to make and the yields may be lower. And therefore the cost will even be higher. That's my feeling about gate-first and gate-last.

嗯，對我來說，先門極技術是否能提供成本優勢這一點確實不太明顯。我相信從表面上看這似乎是一個簡單的過程。然而，簡單的製程和較低的成本之間存在很大差異，因為簡單的製程可能更難實現，產量可能更低。因此成本也會更高。這就是我對先門和後門的感受。

Sure. When do you think there will be (Multiple Speakers) --

當然。您認為什麼時候會出現（多位發言者）－

And again my feeling, I think is less important than our customers [thoughts]. And our customers unanimously know that gate-last -- well, actually for that matter our competitors have decided to change to gate-last also.

再次，我認為我的感覺不如我們的客戶的想法重要。我們的客戶一致知道，閘極後置技術——事實上，就此而言，我們的競爭對手也決定改用閘極後置技術。

But not until 20-nanometer. And I'm just wondering if from now till then there will be enough difference in performance and cost benefit of the product that would prevent these new competitors from gaining any more traction.

但要達到 20 奈米才行。我只是想知道從現在到那時，產品的性能和成本效益是否有足夠的差異，以阻止這些新競爭對手獲得更多的吸引力。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

Okay.

好的。

Well, I think our technical people, whom I respect, they have unanimously told me that gate-last is the way to go and still be competitive.

嗯，我認為我們尊敬的技術人員一致告訴我，採用門控後處理技術是可行的方法，而且仍然具有競爭力。

And then my follow-up question, I kind of missed your commentary on inventory correction. Based on -- so I apologize if I'm repeating the question already asked.

然後是我的後續問題，我有點錯過了你對庫存調整的評論。基於——如果我重複了已經問過的問題，我深感抱歉。

When you look at the rolling forecast, given what we know today of market demand and when you look into your rolling forecast for beyond December, how do you see the trend playing out, especially when Christmas and Chinese New Year are back to back and when many chip companies have already told us over the past two weeks that chip inventory correction is going to come to an end by Q3.

當您查看滾動預測時，鑑於我們今天所了解的市場需求，當您查看 12 月以後的滾動預測時，您如何看待趨勢，尤其是在聖誕節和農曆新年接踵而至的情況下，而且許多晶片公司已經在過去兩週告訴我們，晶片庫存調整將在第三季度結束。

So what I'm trying to figure out is, is there a realistic scenario to expect a pent-up demand if the sell-through during the month of January doesn't fall off the cliff. Is this something that you're contemplating?

因此，我想弄清楚的是，如果一月份的銷售量沒有大幅下降，是否存在可以預期被壓抑的需求的現實情況。這是您正在考慮的事情嗎？

I'm sorry, I'm asking Elizabeth to --

抱歉，我請求伊莉莎白——

Well, I think your question is some people are saying that the inventory correction will be ending by end of Q3 instead of by end of Q4 right.

嗯，我認為你的問題是，有些人說庫存調整將在第三季末結束，而不是第四季末，對嗎？

Yes. So when you look into your rolling forecast for beyond December, what -- is there anything that you can share with us because -- and I'm asking that because inventory correction is coming to an end by Q3. Then we have two major catalysts which hit consumption, Christmas and then two weeks later, Chinese New Year. And if sell-through doesn't fall off the cliff, there could be a scenario where there's a pent-up demand and some of your customers may rush back.

是的。因此，當您查看 12 月以後的滾動預測時，有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？我之所以問這個問題，是因為庫存調整將在第三季結束。然後，我們有兩個影響消費的主要催化劑：聖誕節和兩週後的農曆新年。如果銷售量沒有大幅下降，就可能出現這樣的情況：需求被壓抑，部分客戶可能會回來。

Look --

看 -

Mehdi.

梅赫迪。

Look, I think that actually last quarter, three months ago we thought the supply chain inventory correction would probably end in September. But the inputs that we have been getting from our customers is that -- or I should say the implications that we've been getting from our customers is that the destocking is still going on.

我認為，實際上上個季度，也就是三個月前，我們就認為供應鏈庫存調整可能會在九月結束。但我們從客戶那裡得到的訊息是——或者我應該說我們從客戶那裡得到的含義是去庫存仍在繼續。

Now keep in mind that we are not like an IBM, such as Intel. We do have our customers as another layer between us and the market and the equipment market. So the IBMs can control their inventory very well and they can -- they are in immediate contact with the equipment market. Whereas we are one layer more -- one layer apart -- one layer more apart from the equipment market. So therefore the way we see this destocking is a bit more complicated than the IBMs would see destocking. I don't know whether I made myself clear.

現在請記住，我們不像 IBM，例如英特爾。我們確實有客戶作為我們和市場以及設備市場之間的另一層。因此，IBM 可以很好地控制他們的庫存，並且可以與設備市場保持直接聯繫。而我們與設備市場還有一層差距──差了一層。因此，我們看待這種去庫存的方式比 IBM 看待去庫存的方式要複雜一些。我不知道我是否表達清楚了。

Should I assume -- but basically we just don't know how the Q1 rolling forecasts are going to look like. Is that what you're implying?

我應該假設——但基本上我們只是不知道第一季的滾動預測會是什麼樣子。這就是你所暗示的嗎？

We don't know. Our Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter for us; it has always been anyway. So -- and now with the continuous destocking, there's -- if you want me to say now what I expect, I expect that the Q1 will be seasonally weak in revenue. But I expect that the Q1 may be quite good in orders.

我們不知道。我們的第一季是季節性疲軟的一個季度；無論如何，它一直都是這樣的。所以 - 現在隨著庫存的不斷減少，如果您想讓我現在說出我的預期，我預計第一季的收入將出現季節性疲軟。但我預計第一季的訂單可能會相當好。

Got it. Okay, that was clear. Thank you.

知道了。好的，很清楚。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike McConnell of Pacific Securities.

您的下一個問題來自太平洋證券的麥克麥康奈爾。

Thank you. Just to follow up on Mehdi's question, I wanted to see with the utilization -- the capacity slide in Q4 and you said utilization are going to be up. Does that mean starts will be up sequentially in Q4, to get the utilizations higher? Or is it just you're trying to rebuild back to a normalized level for inventory and we shouldn't extrapolate starts being up from your customers which will lead to potential growth in Q1? I just wanted to clarify that.

謝謝。為了跟進 Mehdi 的問題，我想看看利用率——第四季度的產能下滑，而您說利用率將會上升。這是否意味著第四季的開工率將連續上升，從而提高利用率？或者您只是試圖將庫存恢復到正常水平，而我們不應該推斷您的客戶開工率上升將導致第一季的潛在成長？我只是想澄清這一點。

No, I don't think that Q1 will be a potential growth quarter. As I said Q1 is seasonally weak anyway for us. I don't think so.

不，我不認為第一季會是一個潛在成長的季度。正如我所說，第一季對我們來說是一個季節性疲軟期。我不這麼認為。

And just last question on 28-nanometer and how we should look at the ramp next year. You've talked a lot about tape-out activity being exceptionally strong for this node relative to some past leading-edge geometries. Typically in the first year, generally for leading edge geometries, you'll see revenue at a negative rate in that first year, high single digits. Do you think that this time when you're looking at 28-nanometer and the amount of tape-out activity you have that you could be in a double-digit range as the negative rate in terms of percentage of revenue next year?

最後一個問題是關於 28 奈米以及我們應該如何看待明年的成長。您已經多次談到，相對於過去的一些前緣幾何形狀而言，此節點的流片活動異常強勁。通常在第一年，對於前沿幾何形狀而言，你會看到第一年​​的收入為負值，高個位數。您是否認為，這次，當您考慮 28 奈米及其流片活動的數量時，明年的收入百分比可能會出現兩位數的負增長？

Well, we expect 28-nanometer to be ramping up continuously from this point on all through next year. But remember 28-nanometer still is a relatively small percentage of wafer starts though.

我們預計從現在開始到明年 28 奈米技術將會持續發展。但請記住，28 奈米在晶圓製造中所佔的比例仍然相對較小。

Yes, starts. But revenue though, do you think it could be above 10% of the negative rate for next year?

是的，開始了。但對於收入來說，您認為明年的負利率可能會超過 10% 嗎？

We'll have about 2% in the fourth quarter from 28-nanometer and we'll continue to go up --

第四季度，28 奈米製程的產量將成長約 2%，並且還會繼續成長——

2% this fourth quarter.

第四季成長 2%。

This fourth quarter 2% and by second half next year it will account for more than 10%.

今年第四季這一比例為2%，到明年下半年將達到10%以上。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Donald Lu of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的唐納德·陸 (Donald Lu)。

Hi, good evening. My first question is you have been talking about 28-nanometer has a much higher CapEx intensity, much more expensive and so -- and on the other hand I would assume the wafer price will be a lot higher too. And so one should we -- will we see if any positive impact on TSMC's ASP, on a systematic way because of the higher 28-nanometer and 40-nanometer mix?

嗨，晚上好。我的第一個問題是，您一直在談論 28 奈米的資本支出強度更高，成本更高等等——另一方面，我認為晶圓價格也會高很多。那麼，我們是否應該看到，28 奈米和 40 奈米混合型技術是否會對台積電的 ASP 產生系統性的正面影響？

Yes.

是的。

Donald.

唐納德。

Yes, Donald. Certainly it will have a positive impact on our blended average price because it's higher price, 28-nanometer. How much impact well, now just as Lora said, the revenue impact will be 10% or more, more than 10% in the second half of next year. So you can figure out arithmetically. You can see that why it has a uplifting effect. But our base is pretty big now, so the revenue impact is over 10% in the second half of next year. I think the first half of next year it will be smaller than that, so it can't have a too big impact.

是的，唐納德。當然，它會對我們的混合平均價格產生積極影響，因為 28 奈米的價格更高。影響有多大呢？正如Lora所說，收入影響將在10％或更多，明年下半年將超過10％。所以你可以用算術方法算出來。您可以看到為什麼它有令人振奮的效果。但我們現在的基數已經很大了，所以明年下半年的收入影響會超過10%。我認為明年上半年的影響會比這小一些，所以不會產生太大的影響。

And that ASP change is already included in your revenue assumptions for next year?

平均售價的變化已經包含在您明年的營收預測中了嗎？

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

When you talk about your revenue will grow a few percentage points higher than the industry?

您剛才談到你們的營收成長會比業界高出幾個百分點？

Pardon me.

對不起。

Sorry. When you -- earlier you said TSMC's revenue growth next year might be a few percentage points higher than the industry and I assume that's already including this potential ASP effect.

對不起。您之前說過，台積電明年的收入成長可能會比產業高出幾個百分點，我認為這已經包含了潛在的 ASP 效應。

Yes, that's correct. Actually to tell the truth, Donald, I'm more confident of the growth in 28-nanometers than I am about the growth of everything else. So yes, we have included the 28-nanometer numbers in my overall estimate and I think that I have taken a reasonably conservative approach on the rest of the portfolio, which is, by the way, 80%, 90% -- no, 90% -- more than 90% of the total. I think I am taking a reasonably conservative approach when I say that the total will be several points above 3% to 5%.

是的，正確。實際上說實話，唐納德，我對 28 奈米的成長比對其他所有領域的成長更有信心。所以是的，我們在我的總體估算中包含了 28 奈米的數字，而且我認為我對其餘投資組合採取了合理保守的方法，順便說一下，這部分投資組合佔總數的 80%、90%——不，90%——超過 90%。當我說總數將比 3% 到 5% 高出幾個點時，我想我採取了相當保守的方法。

Got it. And my second question is for Lora. I think in the afternoon you had a very clear explanation on the margin change in terms of how much is from FX and other things. Can you please just repeat that so we can be sure we get the correct answer?

知道了。我的第二個問題是問 Lora 的。我認為下午您對保證金變化（包括外匯和其他方面的金額）已經有一個非常清晰的解釋。您能再說一次以確保我們得到正確的答案嗎？

Donald, I think you're talking about the third quarter versus our fourth-quarter guidance. Is that right?

唐納德，我認為你談論的是第三季與第四季的預期。是嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

The margin difference.

利潤差異。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. If we were to take the midpoint of our fourth-quarter guidance the margin that I guided will be 44.5%. Compared with third quarter 42%, it's the 2.5 percentage higher. On the 2.5% higher we have several factors. Number one, a better cost in fourth quarter, this is 1.2%; better utilization, this is 0.7%; better foreign exchange rate, 1.7% and last, unfavorable product mix because we're ramping 28, this is a negative 1%. So if you add those four things up, you get roughly 2.5 percentage points.

好的。如果我們採用第四季指引的中點，我預測的利潤率將為 44.5%。較第三季的42%上升2.5個百分點。對於 2.5% 以上的成長，我們有幾個因素。第一，第四季的成本比較好，是1.2%；利用率更高，為 0.7%；更好的外匯匯率，1.7％，最後，不利的產品組合，因為我們正在增加 28，這是負 1％。所以如果你把這四個因素加起來，你會得到大約 2.5 個百分點。

Right. And your US dollar assumption for Q4 is --

正確的。您對第四季的美元假設是—

TWD30.3.

30.3 新台幣。

TWD30.3, great. Thank you very much.

TWD30.3，很棒。非常感謝。

Welcome.

歡迎。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Dan Heyler。

Thank you for taking my question. Two quick questions; one for Lora and one for Dr. Chang.

感謝您回答我的問題。兩個簡單的問題；一個給 Lora，一個給 Dr.昌。

Lora, I wanted to double check my numbers on the fourth quarter revenue. With your revenue guidance to be down about 1% to 3% sequentially in 4Q and the TWD currency forecast to appreciate about 4%, that would mean your US dollar based decline is about 4%, if we assume the midpoint of your guidance. Would the shipments be down about that much and thereby helping inventory digestion, is that how we should think about this?

洛拉，我想再檢查一下第四季的營收數字。由於您預計第四季度營收將環比下降約 1% 至 3%，且新台幣預計將升值約 4%，如果我們假設您的預期中間值，那就表示您以美元計算的降幅約為 4%。出貨量是否會下降那麼多，有助於消化庫存，我們應該這樣考慮嗎？

Actually --

實際上 -

Shipments are down a little less than that.

出貨量降幅略小於此。

A little less. Okay, thank you. So you've got a little bit of ASP decline.

少一點。好的，謝謝。因此，ASP 有所下降。

Not much.

不多。

Okay. And then I guess -- Dr. Chang, thanks. To follow up on (inaudible) question on FinFET because you did mention that TSMC contemplated deeply when to deploy FinFET, whether it would be '14 or earlier, I'm wondering why TSMC wouldn't deploy this basically just as quickly as possible, particularly since you guys have done so much work over the years in this process and the benefit to the [power] seem to be quite favorable. So I'm wondering what the thought process is. Could this be something that you would try to deploy sooner and if so, why not?

好的。然後我想——博士。張，謝謝。為了跟進關於 FinFET 的（聽不清楚）問題，因為您確實提到台積電深入考慮了何時部署 FinFET，無論是 2014 年還是更早，我想知道為什麼台積電不盡快部署它，特別是因為你們多年來在這個過程中做了這麼多工作，而且對 [電力] 的好處似乎非常有利。所以我想知道這個思考過程是怎麼樣的。您是否會盡快嘗試部署此功能？如果是，為什麼不呢？

Well, we have been working on FinFET for quite a few years. But I have to say that in FinFET we are somewhat behind Intel. Now however we could try to catch up by accelerating FinFET and putting it on 20. And the alternative is what we chose.

嗯，我們已經研究 FinFET 好幾年了。但我不得不說，在 FinFET 方面我們有點落後於英特爾。然而現在我們可以透過加速 FinFET 並將其提高到 20 來嘗試趕上。而我們選擇的就是這個替代方案。

The alternative is to find a way that our planar 20 can compete with Intel's FinFET 22 and delay the use of FinFET to the 14-nanometer generation. We will be more ready with FinFET when the 14 generation comes. And we chose that alternative. We believe our 20-nanometer planar in its ecosystem is competitive with Intel's 22 FinFET in Intel's ecosystem. We believe that.

另一種方法是讓我們的平面 20 能夠與英特爾的 FinFET 22 競爭，並將 FinFET 的使用推遲到 14 奈米世代。當第 14 代到來時，我們將為 FinFET 做好更充分的準備。我們選擇了這個方案。我們相信，我們生態系中的 20 奈米平面與英特爾生態系中的 22 FinFET 具有競爭力。我們相信這一點。

That's very clear. Thank you so much. The ecosystem being also the design core as well, including (technical difficulty) arm as well, I presume.

這非常清楚。太感謝了。我推測生態系統也是設計的核心，也包括（技術難度）arm。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Szeho Ng of BNP.

您的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Szeho Ng。

Hi, good evening. Actually the question is about R&D. R&D has gone up quite a lot last couple of quarters. Just want to know if this is the trend going forward or should we expect it to level off at some point in time?

嗨，晚上好。實際上，問題在於研發。過去幾個季度，研發支出大幅增加。只是想知道這是未來的趨勢還是我們是否應該預期它會在某個時間點趨於平穩？

That has been a deliberate policy to increase the R&D, both in amount and in percentage of revenue. And my present thinking is to let R&D go up to about 9% of revenue, which is where it is almost at now. And now of course, as revenue grows, R&D amount will still grow. But my present thinking is to stabilize the R&D expenses at 9% of revenue.

這是一項有意增加研發的政策，旨在增加研發的數量和收入百分比。我現在的想法是讓研發支出佔營收的 9% 左右，現在差不多就是這個水準。當然，隨著收入的成長，研發費用仍將成長。但我現在的想法是將研發費用穩定在營收的9%左右。

Okay. Another question is also on the [COWOS] assembly space. When would you expect it to be a bigger part of your business like 5% of revenue for example?

好的。另一個問題也與[COWOS]組裝空間有關。您預計什麼時候它會成為您業務中更大的一部分，例如佔收入的 5%？

Well, I'll try to answer that question. Really I expect -- I really can't quantify it -- I expect that the COWOS will have a significant impact on revenue only two, three years away. In the next two or three years I do not believe -- I do not think that COWOS will have the significant impact on our revenue.

好吧，我會盡力回答這個問題。我真的預計——我真的無法量化——我預計 COWOS 將在兩三年內對收入產生重大影響。在未來兩三年內，我不認為 COWOS 會對我們的收入產生重大影響。

Operator, in the interest of time we will only accommodate one more caller's question.

接線員，由於時間關係，我們只能再回答一位來電者的問題。

And you have a question from the line of Robert Lea of Jeffries.

您有一個來自 Jeffries 的羅伯特李 (Robert Lea) 的問題。

Thanks for taking my question. I know it's been a very long day for you. So I just wanted to ask, just looking at the costs Lora referred to the fact that costs down in Q4 will help the margin. I just wondered if you can elaborate on that or if it's anything particular in terms of the de-bottlenecking or is it a general reduction in operating costs or manufacturing costs?

感謝您回答我的問題。我知道對你來說這是漫長的一天。所以我只是想問一下，只看成本，Lora 提到第四季成本下降將有助於提高利潤率。我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明這一點，或者在消除瓶頸方面是否有任何特別之處，或者是營運成本或製造成本的普遍降低？

And also if we do a quick analysis of the non-depreciation costs per wafer in the third quarter, it did rise by about 6% or 7% Q over Q. So I'm just wondering specifically what drove that increase. Thanks very much.

而且，如果我們對第三季每片晶圓的非折舊成本進行快速分析，其環比增長了約 6％ 或 7％。所以我只是想知道具體是什麼導致了這種增長。非常感謝。

Okay. The first part of your question is talking about a cost improvement. I was talking -- I was referring to the manufacturing costs when I said cost improvement. There's two things that favor --- (multiple speakers)

好的。你的問題的第一部分談論的是成本改善。當我說成本改進時，我指的是製造成本。有兩件事有利於－（多位發言者）

The cost improvement actually what I'm talking about is mainly the material wafer costs. That had some improvement. Also in the fourth quarter utility costs will be less than the third quarter compared to -- it will be less in utility costs. That's the two major items for the cost improvement.

實際上我談論的成本改進主要是指材料晶圓的成本。這有一些進步。此外，與第三季相比，第四季的公用事業成本將更低。這是成本改進的兩個主要項目。

Got it. And what exactly did drive the small increase in costs, non-depreciation costs that we saw in the third quarter? Within cost of goods sold.

知道了。那麼，究竟是什麼原因導致了第三季非折舊成本的小幅增加呢？在銷售成本之內。

Okay. Robert, I think in the third quarter compared to the second quarter we actually had higher utility costs because it's summer season. And secondly, because our utilization rate in third quarter is lower than the second quarter, so those non-depreciation fixed costs on a per wafer basis would be higher. So that's why the manufacturing -- the so-called non-depreciation manufacturing costs was higher in third quarter compared to the second quarter.

好的。羅伯特，我認為與第二季相比，第三季我們的公用事業成本實際上更高，因為正值夏季。其次，由於我們第三季的使用率低於第二季度，因此每個晶圓的非折舊固定成本會更高。這就是為什麼製造業——所謂的非折舊製造成本在第三季比第二季更高。

Got it, thanks very much. And a very quick follow-up question. Just if you draw parallels with the challenging experiences that the industry went through in '08, '09, what parallels are there at the moment, in terms of what your customers are saying sentiment-wise, I mean just your own gut feel? And I guess you're looking for the industry to essentially recover next year. To what extent -- how far are we in the bottoming process for the industry based on where we are today? And when does that inflexion point come? I know this has been referred to earlier on in the call. Essentially are we looking for the business and the industry to rebound into the second quarter?

明白了，非常感謝。還有一個非常快速的後續問題。如果將這次經驗與 2008 年和 2009 年該行業經歷的挑戰進行比較，那麼從您的客戶情緒來看，目前與這次經歷有哪些相似之處，我的意思是您自己的直覺是什麼？我想你希望這個行業明年能真正復甦。在多大程度上——根據我們目前的狀況，我們處於產業觸底過程的多遠？那麼這個拐點何時會到來？我知道早些時候在通話中已經提到過這一點。本質上，我們是否期待業務和產業在第二季度反彈？

Well, it's I think it's problematic to try to predict the future on the basis of what happened in the past. But I -- you know in the '08, '09 situation, the depth of the plunge was much greater. And the plunge was just for two quarters -- fourth quarter of '08 and the first quarter of '09. And then in the second quarter of '09 there was a surge -- a surge began. And the surge was very strong. And it continued to the third quarter and then sort of stabilized a little bit from the fourth quarter on. But it continued to grow actually. But the slope of the surge obviously became gentler from the fourth quarter -- from fourth quarter '09 on. So that was the experience.

嗯，我認為根據過去發生的事情來預測未來是有問題的。但我知道，在 2008 年和 2009 年的情況下，跌幅的深度要大得多。而且暴跌僅持續了兩個季度——2008 年第四季和 2009 年第一季。然後在 2009 年第二季度出現了激增——激增開始了。而且浪湧非常強勁。這種情況一直持續到第三季度，並從第四季度開始穩定。但實際上它還在持續成長。但從第四季開始，也就是從2009年第四季開始，成長的勢頭明顯趨於平緩。這就是我的經驗。

Now if you try to draw a exact analog here I would think that in the first quarter of next year we will start to get orders, strong orders and revenue will probably begin to surge in the second quarter of next year. Again I mean that -- as I said earlier it's problematic to draw conclusions, to draw predictions about the future from experience in the past.

現在，如果你嘗試在這裡畫一個精確的類比，我會認為明年第一季我們將開始獲得訂單，強勁的訂單和收入可能會在明年第二季開始激增。我再次強調，正如我之前所說，根據過去的經驗得出結論、預測未來是有問題的。

Because I guess the overall read is, for both yourselves and many other companies in the sector, although things are maybe getting incrementally worse, so nowhere near a comparison with the '08/'09 situation and actually in some respects things are holding up remarkably well despite all the frightening headlines in the newspaper and on CNN.

因為我想，對於你們自己以及該行業的許多其他公司來說，總體的看法是，儘管情況可能在逐漸惡化，但與 2008/2009 年的情況相比還是相去甚遠，而且實際上，儘管報紙和 CNN 上充斥著令人恐懼的頭條新聞，但從某些方面來看，情況仍然保持得相當好。

I think the frightening headlines in CNN and newspapers -- you're talking about American newspapers, I assume. I think they are about the general economy and semiconductor is little different. Semiconductor is a little different because we -- I think we do have a killer app just emerging and that's the mobile product. So that's our new killer app. And then I think TSMC is even a little more different than the semiconductor so. Yes, the frightening news I think is probably true. The world economy I think doesn't look very good.

我認為 CNN 和報紙上那些令人恐懼的頭條新聞——我想你談論的是美國報紙。我認為它們與整體經濟有關，半導體也沒什麼不同。半導體有點不同，因為我認為我們確實有一個剛出現的殺手級應用，那就是行動產品。這就是我們的新殺手級應用。然後我認為台積電與半導體還有點不同。是的，我認為這個可怕的消息可能是真的。我認為世界經濟情勢不太好。

Okay. Well, it certainly seems your business is holding up well. Thank you very much.

好的。嗯，看起來你的生意確實進展順利。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Robert. Well, I think this concludes our Q&A session and thank you for joining us today. We hope you will join us again next quarter. Bye-bye.

謝謝你，羅伯特。好吧，我想我們的問答環節到此結束，感謝您今天的參與。我們希望您下個季度能再次加入我們。再見。

Thank you, goodnight.

謝謝，晚安。

Before we conclude TSMC's 3Q '11 results webcast conference call today, please be advised that the replay of this conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Thank you all.

在我們今天結束台積電 2011 年第三季業績網路電話會議之前，請注意，本次電話會議的重播只能透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 存取。謝謝大家。