台積電 ADR (TSM) 2010 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the TSMC's fourth-quarter 2010 results webcast conference call.

歡迎來到台積電 2010 年第四季度業績網絡直播電話會議。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com and only in audio mode.

本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播，並且僅以音頻模式進行。

Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr.

我現在想把會議交給博士。

Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations.

台積電投資者關係負責人伊麗莎白·孫。

Thank you, Diana.

謝謝你，戴安娜。

Good morning and good evening, everyone.

大家早上好晚上好。

Welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2010 conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2010 年第四季度電話會議。

Let me wish all of you a very happy New Year.

讓我祝大家新年快樂。

Joining us today on the call are Dr.

今天加入我們的電話是博士。

Morris Chang, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Miss.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀和小姐。

Lora Ho, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Lora Ho，我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官。

The format for today's conference call will be as follows.

今天電話會議的格式如下。

First, Lora will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and give you our guidance for the next quarter.

首先，Lora 將總結我們在第四季度的運營情況，並為您提供下一季度的指導。

Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr.

然後是台積電董事長，博士。

Chang, will provide his general remark on the business outlook and a couple of key messages.

Chang 將就業務前景和幾個關鍵信息發表一般性評論。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

I would like to remind all listeners that the following discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我想提醒所有聽眾，以下討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 15, 2010, and such other documents as TSMC may file with, or submit to, the SEC from time to time.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，請參閱台積電於 2010 年 4 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交或提交給 SEC。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Lora.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lora。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good morning and good evening to everyone.

大家早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎參加我們的第四季度收益電話會議。

This next week will be the Chinese New Year.

下週將是中國農曆新年。

Before I start, I want to send you my best wishes for a great Year of the Rabbit.

在開始之前，我想向您致以最良好的祝愿，祝您兔年大吉大利。

During today's call I will start with the financial highlights in fourth quarter, followed by a recap of 2010.

在今天的電話會議中，我將從第四季度的財務亮點開始，然後是對 2010 年的回顧。

Then we will move on to the outlook for the first-quarter 2011.

然後我們將繼續討論 2011 年第一季度的展望。

You may also refer to the quarterly financial summary slides on our website.

您也可以參考我們網站上的季度財務摘要幻燈片。

All dollar figures are in NT dollars unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，所有美元數字均以新台幣為單位。

In the fourth quarter, the NT dollar appreciated more than we originally expected.

第四季度，新台幣升值幅度超出我們的預期。

The actual exchange rate reached TWD30.4 to $1, compared with the planned TWD30.60 when we gave our guidance in the last conference.

實際匯率達到 30.4 新台幣兌 1 美元，而我們在上次會議上給出指導時計劃的 30.60 新台幣。

However, our fourth-quarter revenue still exceeded our guidance, with the profit margins reaching the high end of our outlook.

然而，我們第四季度的收入仍然超過了我們的預期，利潤率達到了我們展望的高端。

Fourth-quarter revenue was TWD110b, representing a 1.9% sequentially decline.

第四季度收入為 TWD110b，環比下降 1.9%。

However, in US dollar terms the fourth quarter marked a 3% growth compared with the third quarter.

然而，以美元計算，第四季度與第三季度相比增長了 3%。

Wafer shipments were 3.2m eight-inch equivalent Wafers, flat from the prior quarter and up 31.5% from the year-ago quarter.

晶圓出貨量為 320 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，與上一季度持平，比去年同期增長 31.5%。

Gross margin was 49.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the third quarter, but up 1.3 percentage points from last year.

毛利率為49.8%，比第三季度下降0.2個百分點，但比去年同期上升1.3個百分點。

Operating margin was 37.7%, down 0.7 percentage points sequentially, but up 1.2 percentage points compared with the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤率為37.7%，環比下降0.7個百分點，但比去年同期上升1.2個百分點。

EPS in the fourth quarter was TWD1.57.

第四季度每股收益為 TWD1.57。

ROE was 23 -- 29.3%.

ROE 為 23 - 29.3%。

Now let's move on, on the income statement.

現在讓我們繼續，在損益表上。

The NT dollar appreciated roughly 5% in the fourth quarter and, thus, negatively impacts our margin.

新台幣在第四季度升值了大約 5%，因此對我們的利潤率產生了負面影響。

However, due to our continued cost improvements our gross margin managed to stay at 49.8%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the third quarter.

然而，由於我們持續改進成本，我們的毛利率保持在 49.8%，比第三季度略有下降 0.2 個百分點。

Operating expenses increased TWD250m from the third quarter, primarily due to higher operating expenses, opening expenses for Fab 14 and Fab 12 phase five.

運營費用較第三季度增加 2.5 億新台幣，主要是由於運營費用增加，Fab 14 和 Fab 12 第五期的開業費用。

Non-operating income decreased by TWD5m from the third quarter, reflecting the absence of receipts of SMIC shares from the SMIC litigation settlement.

營業外收入較第三季度減少 500 萬新台幣，反映中芯國際訴訟和解未收到中芯國際股份。

Meanwhile, in December we acquired a partially constructed Fab from Powerchip with TWD2.9b, including a steel frame to be disposed and rebuilt to our Fab specification.

同時，在 12 月，我們從 Powerchip 以 TWD2.9b 收購了一個部分建造的 Fab，其中包括一個鋼框架，將按照我們的 Fab 規格進行處置和重建。

Therefore, we recorded a net loss of TWD800m in this quarter.

因此，我們在本季度錄得淨虧損 8 億新台幣。

Net investment gain was TWD690m, compared with TWD900m in the prior quarter, reflecting lower profit from certain invested companies.

淨投資收益為 6.9 億新台幣，上一季度為 9 億新台幣，反映某些投資公司的利潤較低。

Net margin was 37%, down 4.8 percentage points sequentially and up 1.5 percentage points year over year.

淨利潤率為37%，環比下降4.8個百分點，同比上升1.5個百分點。

Now let's look at our revenue by applications.

現在讓我們按應用來看看我們的收入。

In the fourth quarter we continue to see growth in Communications and Industrial-related applications, which grew 3% and 4% respectively.

在第四季度，我們繼續看到通信和工業相關應用的增長，分別增長了 3% 和 4%。

Computer declined 6% sequentially, while consumer was down 26% from last quarter.

計算機環比下降 6%，而消費者環比下降 26%。

Revenue from Communications-related applications represents 47% of our total Wafer revenue in the fourth quarter.

來自通信相關應用的收入占我們第四季度晶圓總收入的 47%。

Meanwhile, Computer, Consumer and Industrial applications accounted for 24%, 11% and 18% of our Wafer sales.

同時，計算機、消費和工業應用占我們晶圓銷售額的 24%、11% 和 18%。

By technology, 40 nanometer and 65 nanometer continued to grow and represented 21% and 31% of our total Wafer revenue respectively.

在技術方面，40 納米和 65 納米繼續增長，分別占我們晶圓總收入的 21% 和 31%。

These two nodes combined were 52% of our Wafer sales, up from 46% in the last quarter.

這兩個節點合計占我們晶圓銷售額的 52%，高於上一季度的 46%。

Meanwhile, revenue from 0.13 micron and below accounted for 73% of total Wafer sales, from 72% in third-quarter '10.

同時，0.13 微米及以下的收入佔晶圓總銷售額的 73%，而 2010 年第三季度為 72%。

Now, since 40 nanometer and 65 nanometer combined represent more than half of our total Wafer sales, starting from this quarter we redefined the term 'advanced technologies 65 nanometer' and below, compared with '0.13 micron and below' in the past.

現在，由於 40 納米和 65 納米加起來占我們晶圓總銷售額的一半以上，因此從本季度開始，我們重新定義了“65 納米及以下先進技術”這一術語，而過去是“0.13 微米及以下”。

Now let me move on to the balance sheet.

現在讓我繼續討論資產負債表。

We conclude the fourth quarter with TWD182b in cash and short-term investments, representing an increase of TWD14b from prior quarter, mainly due to free cash flow generated during the quarter, partially offset by a decrease in short-term loans for hedging purpose.

我們第四季度的現金和短期投資為TWD182b，比上一季度增加TWD14b，主要是由於該季度產生的自由現金流，部分被用於對沖目的的短期貸款減少所抵消。

Total current liabilities increased by TWD14b, primarily due to an increase in accounts payable to contractors and equipment suppliers.

流動負債總額增加TWD14b，主要是由於應付承包商和設備供應商的賬款增加。

In sum, the current ratio in the fourth quarter was 2.1.

總而言之，第四季度的流動比率為2.1。

Accounts receivable days came slightly down to 38 days.

應收賬款天數略有下降至 38 天。

Inventory turnover days were 50 days, reflecting the increase in mix of advanced technologies and certain early orders from customers.

庫存周轉天數為 50 天，反映了先進技術組合的增加和客戶的某些早期訂單。

Net fixed asset turnover day -- turnover was 1.2 times in fourth quarter.

淨固定資產周轉日——第四季度周轉率為1.2倍。

Now let's proceed to cash flow.

現在讓我們繼續討論現金流。

Cash flow generated from operating activity totaled TWD70.6b, representing an increase of TWD6.6b from prior quarter, mainly due to a decreased use in non-cash net working capital.

經營活動產生的現金流總計TWD70.6b，比上一季度增加TWD6.6b，主要是由於非現金淨營運資金的使用減少。

Capital expenditure was TWD46b in the fourth quarter and, as I mentioned, we repaid a portion of the short-term loans resulting a TWD6.7b outflow.

第四季度的資本支出為 TWD46b，正如我所提到的，我們償還了一部分短期貸款，導致 TWD6.7b 流出。

In sum, the ending cash balance was TWD148b, up TWD16b sequentially.

總而言之，期末現金餘額為TWD148b，環比增加TWD16b。

Free cash flow was TWD24.6b in this quarter.

本季度的自由現金流為TWD24.6b。

Now, in terms of installed capacity, in the fourth quarter total installed capacity was about 3.1m Wafers in the third quarter, representing a 4% sequential increase.

現在，從裝機量來看，四季度總裝機量約為三季度的310萬片，環比增長4%。

For first-quarter 2011 we expect our overall capacity to remain flat.

對於 2011 年第一季度，我們預計我們的整體產能將保持平穩。

While the 12-inch capacity will continue to expand by 3% Q over Q, 6-inch and 8-inch capacity will decrease slightly due to annual maintenance.

雖然 12 英寸產能將繼續擴大 3% Q 比 Q，但 6 英寸和 8 英寸產能將因年度維護而略有下降。

2010 managed capacity increased 14% year over year, with 12-inch capacity up 37%, representing 50% of our total capacity.

2010 年託管容量同比增長 14%，其中 12 英寸容量增長 37%，占我們總容量的 50%。

With regard to capital expenditures, we spent $1.5b in the fourth quarter.

關於資本支出，我們在第四季度花費了 1.5b 美元。

Total capital expenditure for 2010 were $5.94b.

2010 年的總資本支出為 $5.94b。

Now I have a few comments on cash flow and cash dividend.

現在我對現金流和現金股息有一些評論。

For the past few years TSMC had consistently generated ample operating cash flow to fund our capital expenditure.

在過去的幾年裡，台積電一直產生充足的經營現金流來為我們的資本支出提供資金。

Now TSMC is very well positioned to more aggressively pursue higher growth while improving profitability.

現在，台積電處於非常有利的位置，可以在提高盈利能力的同時更積極地追求更高的增長。

We plan to invest and expand our capacity at a much faster pace to capture that growth.

我們計劃以更快的速度投資和擴大我們的產能，以捕捉這種增長。

In the fourth-quarter 2007 earnings conference I stated that our dividend paid-out ratio will be no less than 80% of the distributable earnings.

在 2007 年第四季度的收益會議上，我表示我們的股息支付率將不低於可分配收益的 80%。

However, in order to achieve the Company's new growth objective, from now this statement has to change.

然而，為了實現公司新的增長目標，從現在起必須改變這一說法。

We believe that timely CapEx investment will unlock the Company's growth potential and bring greater rewards to our shareholders.

我們相信，及時的資本支出投資將釋放公司的增長潛力，並為我們的股東帶來更大的回報。

Meanwhile, I believe TSMC will be able to maintain a minimum TWD3 per share dividend in the future, or consider to increase the cash dividend when our free cash flow increases.

同時，我相信台積電未來能夠維持最低每股3新台幣的股息，或在我們的自由現金流增加時考慮增加現金股息。

In addition to a dividend yield that is already among the highest in the industry, TSMC aims to reward its shareholders even more with share price appreciation.

除了已經是業內最高的股息收益率之外，台積電的目標是通過股價升值來更多地回報其股東。

Next, let me give you a recap of our performance in 2010.

接下來，讓我回顧一下我們在 2010 年的表現。

2010 was a record year for TSMC in revenue, gross profit dollars and net income dollars.

2010 年是台積電在收入、毛利潤和淨利潤方面創紀錄的一年。

We also achieved near historical high profit margins.

我們還實現了接近歷史高位的利潤率。

To accommodate a strong demand from customers we have been committed to provide the most advanced technologies and ramping up capacity, while we manage to be fully loaded throughout the year.

為了滿足客戶的強烈需求，我們一直致力於提供最先進的技術和提高產能，同時我們全年都在滿負荷運轉。

2010 revenue grew 42% year over year in NT dollars, or 48% if measured in US dollars.

2010 年收入以新台幣計算同比增長 42%，如果以美元計算，則增長 48%。

Gross margin reached 49.4% in 2010, with a 5.7 percentage-point increase from 2009.

2010年毛利率達到49.4%，比2009年提高5.7個百分點。

Operating margin hit 37.9%, representing a 6.8 percentage expansion from last year.

營業利潤率達到 37.9%，比去年增長 6.8 個百分點。

Earnings per share for 2010 was TWD6.23, up 81%, from TWD3.44 in 2009.

2010 年每股收益為 6.23 新台幣，較 2009 年的 3.44 新台幣增長 81%。

ROE of 30.2% was the highest in the past decade.

ROE 30.2%，為近十年來最高。

Now let's turn to the outlook for the first quarter 2011.

現在讓我們轉向 2011 年第一季度的展望。

Based on current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD29.26, we expect our consolidated revenue in the first quarter to come in between TWD105b and TWD107b.

根據目前的業務預期和TWD29.26的預測匯率，我們預計第一季度的綜合收入將介於TWD105b和TWD107b之間。

In terms of margins, we expect our fourth-quarter gross margin -- we expect our first-quarter gross margin to be between 47% and 49%, operating margin to be between 35% and 37%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計第四季度的毛利率——我們預計第一季度的毛利率在 47% 到 49% 之間，營業利潤率在 35% 到 37% 之間。

For the first quarter of 2011 we expect total demand to be stronger than seasonal, Communication is better than seasonal, while Computer and Consumer applications are weaker than seasonal.

對於 2011 年第一季度，我們預計總需求將強於季節性，通信優於季節性，而計算機和消費應用則弱於季節性。

We further expect Semiconductor system unit growth for the full year of 2011 to be as follows; PC 12% growth year over year; Handsets 9% growth year over year; Digital Consumer Electronics 6% growth year over year.

我們進一步預計2011年全年半導體系統單位增長如下： PC 同比增長 12%；手機同比增長9%；數字消費電子產品同比增長 6%。

This concludes my remarks today.

我今天的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn the call to Dr.

現在我想把電話轉給博士。

Morris Chang, our Chairman and CEO, for his remarks.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀先生致辭。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning or good evening.

早上好或晚上好。

We had a record year in 2010, both in revenue and in net income.

2010 年，我們的收入和淨收入都創下歷史新高。

We grew our revenue by 48% in US dollars.

我們以美元計算的收入增長了 48%。

As a result, we believe our market share in the total Foundry segment has increased from 43.9% in 2009 to 45.5% in 2010.

因此，我們相信我們在整個鑄造領域的市場份額已從 2009 年的 43.9% 增加到 2010 年的 45.5%。

Our growth momentum is fueled by timely addition and fast ramp-up of capacity, wide adoption of our advanced technologies and a strong growth in the specialty technology revenue.

及時增加和快速增加產能、廣泛採用我們的先進技術以及專業技術收入的強勁增長推動了我們的增長勢頭。

TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global Logic IC industry for years to come.

台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯 IC 行業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。

Because we have the technologies, we have effective capacity, and we have earned the trust from customers, we believe that we will continue to gain market share.

因為我們有技術，我們有有效的能力，我們贏得了客戶的信任，我們相信我們將繼續獲得市場份額。

For 2011 we expect the overall Semiconductor market, excluding Memory, to grow by about 7%.

對於 2011 年，我們預計整個半導體市場（不包括內存）將增長約 7%。

We expect the Foundry market to grow by about 15%.

我們預計代工市場將增長約 15%。

And we believe TSMC will grow more than 20% in US dollars.

我們相信台積電將以美元計算增長超過 20%。

The forecast demand from our customers for 2011 outpaces the supply under our current capacity plan.

根據我們當前的產能計劃，我們客戶對 2011 年的預測需求超過了供應。

We expect to continue to fully utilize our capacity this year.

我們預計今年將繼續充分利用我們的產能。

To support the strong growth we plan to spend about $7.8b for capital expenditures for 2011.

為了支持強勁的增長，我們計劃在 2011 年花費大約 7.8b 美元用於資本支出。

81% of the total budget is for 65-, 40-, 28-nanometer technologies.

總預算的 81% 用於 65、40、28 納米技術。

Of the 81%, there's 9% for R&D and, there, capital expenditures are for 20 and 14 nanometers.

在 81% 中，有 9% 用於研發，其中資本支出用於 20 和 14 納米。

With this CapEx we are able to increase our total annual capacity by roughly 20% to about 13.6m eight-inch equivalent Wafers per month.

有了這個資本支出，我們能夠將我們的總年產能提高大約 20%，達到每月約 1,360 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓。

Now I'd like to say a few words about our profitability in 2011.

現在我想談談我們在 2011 年的盈利能力。

Exchange rate changes have been unfavorable in the last few months.

在過去的幾個月裡，匯率變化一直不利。

Compared with the 2010 average exchange rate of TWD31.49 to $1, the exchange rate assumption we are using for 2011 is TWD29.16 to $1.

與 2010 年 31.49 新台幣兌 1 美元的平均匯率相比，我們對 2011 年使用的匯率假設為 29.16 新台幣兌 1 美元。

The 2011 assumed exchange rate is 7.4% down from 2010.

2011 年假設匯率比 2010 年下降 7.4%。

As our CFO has pointed out in the past, each percent fluctuation in the exchange rate results in a 0.4 percentage-point change in operating profit margin, therefore, between 2010 and 2011 we have a three-point operating profit degradation due just to the exchange rate.

正如我們的首席財務官過去指出的那樣，匯率的每一個百分比波動都會導致營業利潤率發生 0.4 個百分點的變化，因此，在 2010 年至 2011 年間，我們的營業利潤下降了 3 個百分點，這僅僅是因為匯率速度。

To address this significant challenge we have taken various countermeasures, including faster ramp up of new capacity, fuller utilization of existing capacity and greater cost-reduction measures, in order to make sure that we leave no money on the table.

為了應對這一重大挑戰，我們採取了各種應對措施，包括加快新增產能、充分利用現有產能和更大程度的降低成本措施，以確保我們沒有留下任何資金。

Our strategic financial goal is to achieve compounded annual 10% profit before tax growth and minimum return on equity of 20% across cycle in the next five years.

我們的戰略財務目標是在未來五年內實現 10% 的複合年稅前利潤增長和 20% 的最低股本回報率。

We are on track this year.

今年我們步入正軌。

Now I'd like to make a few comments on our technology highlights.

現在我想對我們的技術亮點發表一些評論。

First, TSMC's 28 nanometer is industry first and ready for primetime.

首先，台積電的 28 納米是業界首創，已準備好迎接黃金時段。

Customer products are already taped out and in prototyping.

客戶產品已經流片並處於原型設計中。

We have superior performance, superior reliability and density, the density being 2x over 40 nanometer with our gate-last high-k metal gate process.

我們具有卓越的性能、卓越的可靠性和密度，使用我們的後柵極高 k 金屬柵極工藝，密度是 40 納米的 2 倍。

We have the 28HPM technology that has gained enthusiastic adoption for tablets, smartphones and embedded SoC applications.

我們擁有的 28HPM 技術已在平板電腦、智能手機和嵌入式 SoC 應用中得到熱烈採用。

The 28HPM has three gigahertz ARM CPU for multi-core application processes.

28HPM 具有三個千兆赫 ARM CPU，用於多核應用程序進程。

The 28HPM has slow SRAM standby leakage and Vcc MiM for Cellular applications.

28HPM 具有緩慢的 SRAM 待機洩漏和適用於蜂窩應用的 Vcc MiM。

The second highlight is that the 28-nanometer lead-free bumping, which is echo-friendly, is also ready and is compatible with superior low-resistance ELK interconnect.

第二個亮點是迴聲友好的 28 納米無鉛凸塊也已準備就緒，並與卓越的低電阻 ELK 互連兼容。

Third highlight, 800 volts high-voltage technology is production-ready and is in customer sampling.

第三個亮點，800 伏高壓技術已投入生產，並在客戶樣品中。

Fourth, we plan to double R&D CapEx to over $700m in 2011.

第四，我們計劃在 2011 年將研發資本支出翻一番，達到 7 億美元以上。

And we plan to increase R&D budget by close to 20% to a total of over $1.1b.

我們計劃將研發預算增加近 20%，總計超過 $1.1b。

Fifth, we have also acquired a new R&D Fab site in Hsinchu Science Park for sub-14 nanometer R&D.

第五，我們還在新竹科學園區獲得了一個新的R&D Fab站點，用於亞14納米的研發。

Six, I want to say a few words about the 450 nano -- I'm sorry, 450mm Wafer manufacturing.

六、關於450納米我想說幾句——對不起，450mm Wafer製造。

Our first 450mm pilot line is planned at our Fab 12 phase six, starting with 20-nanometer technology.

我們的第一條 450 毫米試生產線計劃在 Fab 12 第六階段進行，從 20 納米技術開始。

The timing of the pilot line will be around 2013/2014.

試點線的時間將在 2013/2014 年左右。

Our first 450mm production line is planned in around 2015/2016.

我們的第一條 450mm 生產線計劃在 2015/2016 年左右。

Lastly, but not least, I want to talk about two recent developments which TSMC stands to benefit from in the future.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我想談談台積電未來將從中受益的兩項最新發展。

The first recent development is that Microsoft has recently announced that it will port Windows 8 to ARM, probably by next year.

最近的第一個發展是微軟最近宣布將在明年將 Windows 8 移植到 ARM。

Since many of our customers use ARM cores to design their products, the support from Microsoft will give our customers more opportunities to address new markets, such as mobile computing and PCs.

由於我們的許多客戶使用 ARM 內核來設計他們的產品，微軟的支持將為我們的客戶提供更多機會來應對新市場，例如移動計算和 PC。

Since we are many of our customers primary Foundry, we will have the opportunity to grow with our customers.

由於我們的許多客戶主要是 Foundry，因此我們將有機會與客戶一起成長。

The second parallel development, along with the Microsoft announcement, is that mobile computing devices, such as smartphones and tablets, have gained wide acceptance and have become very popular in our daily lives.

第二個平行發展，與微軟的聲明一起，是移動計算設備，如智能手機和平板電腦，已經獲得了廣泛的接受，並在我們的日常生活中變得非常流行。

We estimate smartphones will reach 420m units in 2011 and the growth is estimated to be 45% year over year.

我們預計 2011 年智能手機將達到 4.2 億部，預計同比增長 45%。

We estimate tablets will be 40m units this year.

我們估計今年平板電腦的銷量將達到 4000 萬台。

The growth is very fast; 170% this year.

增長非常快；今年170%。

But the overall size is still small.

但是整體尺寸還是很小的。

There is still a lot of room for the tablets to grow.

平板電腦還有很大的成長空間。

We estimate that 61% of the Logic IC from the non-iPad/non-GPad -- those are of course Apple and Samsung.

我們估計 61% 的邏輯 IC 來自非 iPad/非 GPad——當然是蘋果和三星。

61% of Logic IC from the non-iPad/non-GPad tablets will be supplied by TSMC.

非 iPad/非 GPad 平板電腦中 61% 的邏輯 IC 將由台積電提供。

These tablets, the non-iPad demand, will largely take off from 2011, the second half of 2011.

這些平板電腦，即非 iPad 的需求，將從 2011 年，即 2011 年下半年開始大幅起飛。

For smartphones, many of its major IC contributors are TSMC's customers and we currently supply 45% of the Logic IC to smartphones.

就智能手機而言，其許多主要 IC 供應商都是台積電的客戶，我們目前為智能手機供應 45% 的 Logic IC。

And we expect our contribution to go beyond 50% in the near future.

我們預計在不久的將來我們的貢獻將超過 50%。

As Fabless companies tend to participate more in the fast-growing new markets and designs and new products, such as the mobile computing devices, their faster growth fuels TSMC's growth.

由於 Fabless 公司傾向於更多地參與快速增長的新市場、設計和新產品，例如移動計算設備，它們的快速增長推動了台積電的增長。

The development and popularity of the mobile computing devices will speed up the technology migration of the leading nodes, such as 40, 28, 20 nanometers, in order to meet the processing speed and low power requirements, as well as the need for high integration of different IPs.

移動計算設備的發展和普及將加速領先節點的技術遷移，如40、28、20納米，以滿足處理速度和低功耗的要求，以及對高集成度的需求。不同的IP。

TSMC's 28HPM is very well positioned.

台積電的28HPM定位非常好。

We have the industry-leading three gigahertz operating frequency and the best performance/power ratio for low-power processes.

我們擁有業界領先的 3 GHz 工作頻率和適用於低功耗工藝的最佳性能/功率比。

Customers are adopting our 28HPM enthusiastically.

客戶熱情地採用我們的 28HPM。

We stand to benefit from the popularity of these mobile devices.

我們將從這些移動設備的普及中受益。

These are my prepared comments.

這些是我準備好的評論。

We are now open for questions.

我們現在可以提問。

Operator, please open the floor to questions.

接線員，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

And our first question comes from the line of Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Good evening.

晚上好。

I wanted to follow up on the cost-saving measures you mentioned to offset currency.

我想跟進你提到的抵消貨幣的成本節約措施。

One of those was running the Fab more full.

其中之一是使 Fab 運行得更加充分。

I wanted to see is that a temporary measure due to currency pressure, or are you shifting back to a strategy of managing higher utilization through the cycle?

我想看看這是由於貨幣壓力而採取的臨時措施，還是您正在轉向在整個週期內管理更高利用率的策略？

No, we're not shutting anything back.

不，我們不會關閉任何東西。

Of course, running the Fabs full is a function of the demand.

當然，使 Fab 滿負荷運行是需求的一個功能。

If there's no demand we can't run the Fabs full.

如果沒有需求，我們就無法滿負荷運行 Fab。

But what we're saying is that we are running the Fabs fuller than we were planning to, to support some of the non-supported demand that we had in the past.

但我們要說的是，我們正在比我們計劃的更充分地運行 Fab，以支持我們過去的一些不受支持的需求。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

And a couple (multiple speakers) -- okay.

還有幾個（多位發言者）——好的。

Then a couple questions on the CapEx; one is for the China capacity.

然後是關於資本支出的幾個問題；一是針對中國產能。

What your plans are to build that out and how your China business is progressing?

你有什麼計劃來建立它，你的中國業務進展如何？

And then also, within the budget, if you could talk about how much of the $7.8b goes to the new businesses, such as Solar and OED.

然後，在預算範圍內，如果您能談談 7.8b 美元中有多少用於新業務，例如太陽能和 OED。

Lora will answer that question.

洛拉會回答這個問題。

Randy, as you know, we are aggressively expanding our Fab in Shanghai, the eight-inch Fab.

Randy，如您所知，我們正在積極擴建我們在上海的 Fab，即 8 英寸 Fab。

We plan to double the size to 110K by early 2012, so we are expanding very fast.

我們計劃到 2012 年初將規模翻一番，達到 110K，因此我們的擴張速度非常快。

Out of this $7.8b capital expenditure, around $330m will go to the Fab in Shanghai.

在這 7.8 億美元的資本支出中，約 3.3 億美元將用於上海的 Fab。

You also asked about the new business.

您還詢問了新業務。

It's --

它的 -

Yes.

是的。

-- around $100m, $140m CapEx goes to new business for this year.

-- 大約 1 億美元，今年 1.4 億美元的資本支出用於新業務。

Okay, and just one quick follow up.

好的，只需快速跟進。

The Power Chip facility; is that just land?

電源芯片設施；那隻是土地嗎？

Or how quickly do you expect to build that facility?

或者您希望以多快的速度建造該設施？

And how much could you actually do in that [site] that you purchased from Power Chip?

在您從 Power Chip 購買的那個 [站點] 中，您實際上能做多少？

That is actually for the R&D Fab that I've mentioned in my prepared comments.

這實際上是針對我在準備好的評論中提到的研發工廠。

I said that we have acquired a new R&D Fab site in Hsinchu Science Park for 40 nanometer and below 40 nanometer R&D.

我說我們已經在新竹科學園區獲得了一個新的R&D Fab站點，用於40納米和40納米以下的研發。

And that's what the Power Chip site will be for.

這就是 Power Chip 網站的用途。

It's going to start -- we're going to start building I think, perhaps, next year?

它將開始——我們將開始建設，我想，也許，明年？

Next year.

明年。

Next year.

明年。

It's going to be an R&D Fab site, yes.

這將是一個研發工廠，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And one quick thing, you mentioned -- okay.

你提到了一件快速的事情——好的。

For 40 nanometers, yes.

對於 40 納米，是的。

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

Okay.

好的。

And you mentioned, I think, the eight inch you'll do normal maintenance for Chinese New Year.

而你提到的，我想，你會在春節期間進行正常維護的八英寸。

But the 12 inch implies that you're going to run through Chinese New Year.

但是12寸意味著你要過年了。

Is there any trade-offs where you skip the maintenance, or is that the plan to defer maintenance this year?

您是否有任何權衡可以跳過維護，或者是否計劃在今年推遲維護？

No, actually it's not.

不，實際上不是。

We will not skip the maintenance.

我們不會跳過維護。

Actually, our Fab -- the 12 inch, every one of them, is a Giga Fab.

實際上，我們的 Fab——12 英寸，每一個都是 Giga Fab。

They have many, many phases of each Fab, so we do the maintenance for each by phase.

他們每個 Fab 都有很多很多階段，所以我們對每個階段進行維護。

We do not shut down the whole 12 inch for maintenance purpose.

出於維護目的，我們不會關閉整個 12 英寸。

Okay, thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

And the next question will come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna International.

下一個問題將來自 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes, thanks for taking my question.

是的，謝謝你提出我的問題。

Dr.

博士。

Chang, could you help us understand how should we think about the mix of 40 nanometer and 28 nanometer as we exit this year, like in Q4 timeframe?

Chang，您能否幫助我們了解在我們今年退出時，我們應該如何考慮 40 納米和 28 納米的混合，例如在第四季度的時間範圍內？

And also how many tape outs do you actually have for 28 nanometer that will be volume ramp in the second half?

還有，你實際上有多少 28 納米的流片將在下半年實現量產？

All right.

好的。

I'll try to answer your question.

我會盡力回答你的問題。

Now, we plan to have around 2% or 3% of our total revenue in the fourth quarter that will be 28 nanometer; 2% or 3% in the fourth quarter.

現在，我們計劃在第四季度佔總收入的 2% 或 3% 左右，這將是 28 納米；第四季度為 2% 或 3%。

The 40 nanometer, I don't have -- it's -- 40 nanometer is still increasing and -- but in the fourth quarter, as --

40 納米，我沒有 - 它是 - 40 納米仍在增加 - 但在第四季度，因為 -

It's 21%.

是 21%。

21% in the fourth quarter -- 21% of our revenue in the last fourth quarter.

第四季度為 21%——占我們第四季度收入的 21%。

And so by fourth quarter of 2011 I think that that percentage will be higher, but I do not care to give the number now.

所以到 2011 年第四季度，我認為這個百分比會更高，但我現在不想給出這個數字。

That was a part of the question.

這是問題的一部分。

And another part of the question, the tape outs, volume ramping.

問題的另一部分，磁帶輸出，音量增加。

The tape outs of the 28 nanometer they will start to ramp in the second half, in -- starting in the third quarter and more in the fourth quarter.

28 納米的磁帶將在下半年開始，從第三季度開始，在第四季度開始。

But the real momentum we believe will be in the next year, yes.

但我們相信真正的勢頭將在明年，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Just as a follow up, do you see -- what are your thoughts in terms of the time it would take for Microsoft and the operating system to actually be adopted with the ARM processing eco-system, or to work out the details with the ARM-based application?

作為後續行動，您是否看到 - 您對 Microsoft 和操作系統實際採用 ARM 處理生態系統或使用 ARM 制定詳細信息所需的時間有何看法基於應用程序？

Is there going to be a time where the software would have to be applied and debugged until that new architecture and the ramp is realized at TSM?

是否會有一段時間必須應用和調試軟件，直到新架構和斜坡在 TSM 實現？

Yes.

是的。

Well, this probably is a question that Microsoft needs to answer better that TSMC can.

好吧，這可能是微軟需要比台積電更好地回答的問題。

But as far as what we have obtained from publicly available information, I think the porting probably will start next year.

但就我們從公開信息中獲得的信息而言，我認為移植可能會在明年開始。

Given that, I think for other third-party software developers it may still take some time to develop more software for the ARM core using the Windows as the platform.

鑑於此，我認為對於其他第三方軟件開發商來說，使用 Windows 作為平台為 ARM 內核開發更多軟件可能還需要一些時間。

But this is really not a question that TSMC can answer.

但這真的不是台積電能回答的問題。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

And the next question will come from the line of Dan Heyler, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題將來自美銀美林的 Dan Heyler。

Good evening, Dan Heyler here, guys.

晚上好，丹·海勒，伙計們。

I wanted to ask back on the 40-nanometer question, if I may; the comments on very strong and broad demand for your advanced technology and the need for low power, plus the mobile bullishness in smartphones and tablets.

如果可以的話，我想問回 40 納米的問題；對您的先進技術和低功耗需求的非常強勁和廣泛的需求以及智能手機和平板電腦的移動看漲的評論。

Does this suggest that 40 nanometer should surge in demand mainly from here?

這是否表明 40 納米的需求應該主要從這裡激增？

Is that predominantly where the mobile demand is coming from?

這主要是移動需求的來源嗎？

Yes, we do -- does the 40-nanometer demand come just from mobile?

是的，我們有——40 納米的需求僅來自移動設備嗎？

I don't think it comes just from mobile.

我認為它不僅僅來自移動設備。

But the total 40-nanometer demand is increasing faster than we expected even three months ago, Dan.

但是，即使在三個月前，40 納米的總需求增長速度也比我們預期的要快，丹。

All right, but what's driving the question is, if you look at your other major product cycles in terms of nodes, I'm wondering whether 40 potentially would be maybe a higher contributor to overall sales.

好吧，但問題的驅動力是，如果您從節點的角度來查看其他主要產品週期，我想知道 40 是否可能對整體銷售有更高的貢獻。

On many of your cycles you've peaked at about 30% of contribution to total sales and, given your strength in demand that you're referring to, whether potentially 40 would be maybe a higher contributor potentially than some of the other nodes as net contribution to sales.

在您的許多周期中，您對總銷售額的貢獻達到了 30% 的峰值，並且考慮到您所指的需求強度，是否可能 40 可能比其他一些節點的貢獻更大對銷售的貢獻。

I actually think that's possible, Dan.

我實際上認為這是可能的，丹。

Of course, I think both of us would be just speculating.

當然，我認為我們倆都只是猜測。

But really I think that we are pretty much seeing new things, new things that we didn't see even as late as six months or a year ago.

但實際上，我認為我們幾乎看到了新事物，甚至在六個月或一年前我們還沒有看到的新事物。

Back then we thought that 65 was going to be a very, very important node and 40 might be actually less important in terms of the ultimate volume than the 65.

那時我們認為 65 將是一個非常非常重要的節點，而 40 就最終體積而言實際上可能不如 65 重要。

But I think that we are revising that estimate now because there's a migration from 65 to 40, and then there are new applications in for the 40.

但我認為我們現在正在修改這個估計，因為從 65 遷移到 40，然後有新的應用程序用於 40。

And, actually, we now feel that 28 is going to be a very, very important node also, so all these are pretty exciting.

而且，實際上，我們現在覺得 28 也將是一個非常非常重要的節點，所以所有這些都非常令人興奮。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And my second question is on the margin side, because with the implied utilization your shipment number over your capacity number goes from 106.8 in the third quarter down to 102.9, so about a four percentage-point decline in utilization.

我的第二個問題是關於利潤方面的，因為隱含的使用率使您的裝運數量超過產能數量從第三季度的 106.8 下降到 102.9，因此使用率下降了大約 4 個百分點。

But your gross profit margin is almost flat; you're at only a 20 basis point decline.

但你的毛利率幾乎持平；你只下降了 20 個基點。

I don't think we're -- Dan, I don't think we're following you.

我不認為我們是——丹，我不認為我們在跟踪你。

Would you please start over again?

請你重新開始好嗎？

Sure, sorry about that, yes.

當然，對不起，是的。

So you're seeing about a 4% decline in utilization from the third quarter to fourth quarter, but your margin -- gross profit margin is almost flat, only a 20 basis point decline.

因此，您看到從第三季度到第四季度的利用率下降了大約 4%，但您的利潤率——毛利率幾乎持平，僅下降了 20 個基點。

How are you able to -- in fact, depreciation is up.

你怎麼能——事實上，折舊率上升了。

So could you talk about profitability, what's going on in your business?

那麼您能談談盈利能力嗎？您的業務正在發生什麼？

I guess when I look at your mix your ASPs are up, driven by 40 nanometers, so is this profitability driven by -- effectively driven by your contribution from 40 nanometer because, again, your margins are almost flat while utilization declined?

我想當我查看您的組合時，您的 ASP 上升了，受 40 納米驅動，那麼這種盈利能力是由您從 40 納米的貢獻驅動的嗎？再次，您的利潤率幾乎持平，而利用率下降？

Dan, I think the utilization you are seeing is probably higher than what we are seeing, because you take the shipments divided by our installed capacity.

丹，我認為您看到的利用率可能比我們看到的要高，因為您將出貨量除以我們的裝機容量。

What we are seeing here is we use Wafer move, because the building versus installed capacity it has to do with inventory fluctuation on the back end among quarters.

我們在這裡看到的是我們使用 Wafer move，因為建築與裝機容量與季度之間後端的庫存波動有關。

And we are measuring based on the equivalents utilization is how many move we can do in every Wafer Fab [that] we can use every piece of equipment.

我們根據等效利用率來衡量我們可以在每個 Wafer Fab 中進行多少移動 [that] 我們可以使用每台設備。

So from that angle we are not that full as you expected.

所以從這個角度來看，我們並沒有你想像的那麼充實。

So if we do a very good job we can very well run above 100% utilization, though we still have some room, also depending on the demand as well.

因此，如果我們做得很好，我們可以很好地運行在 100% 以上的利用率，儘管我們還有一些空間，也取決於需求。

But there was a decline in utilization, right, because your capacity grew faster than shipments?

但是利用率下降了，對吧，因為你的產能增長快於出貨量？

You mean from third quarter to fourth quarter?

你是說從第三季度到第四季度？

Yes, did your utilization decline?

是的，您的利用率下降了嗎？

Well, yes (multiple speakers).

嗯，是的（多位發言者）。

Yes.

是的。

From third quarter to fourth quarter, yes, there's a slight decline.

從第三季度到第四季度，是的，略有下降。

And your margins are flat, so I guess I'm wondering what's driving this profitability.

而且您的利潤率持平，所以我想我想知道是什麼推動了這種盈利能力。

Is it the mix?

是混合物嗎？

And is there something happening on 40 nanometer in particular?

特別是在 40 納米上發生了什麼？

Well, actually, 40 nanometer has been improving all through the year.

嗯，實際上，40 納米全年都在改進。

So I believe that a pretty important -- it does -- it did play a very important role in keeping our margins up, but you're looking at the whole Company here.

所以我相信一個非常重要的——確實如此——它確實在保持我們的利潤率方面發揮了非常重要的作用，但你在這裡看到的是整個公司。

When you commented on the gross margin, the relatively level gross margin percentage, you are looking at the whole Company and there's a lot of factors in play.

當您評論毛利率時，相對水平的毛利率百分比，您正在查看整個公司並且有很多因素在起作用。

Yes, depreciation increase was a factor, but there's a lot of costs.

是的，折舊增加是一個因素，但有很多成本。

There's a lot of variable costs that we have been able to reduce also.

我們還能夠減少很多可變成本。

And then there's also this mix question, so there's a lot of factors.

然後還有這個混合問題，所以有很多因素。

I think you'll be oversimplifying it to just single out one or two factors, Dan.

我認為你會過於簡單化，只挑出一兩個因素，丹。

But, as I said this afternoon, we do manage margin through standard gross margin.

但是，正如我今天下午所說，我們確實通過標準毛利率來管理利潤率。

But there are literally hundreds of people that work full time to try to maximize the standard grows margin.

但實際上有數百人全職工作，試圖最大限度地提高標準增長利潤率。

And the 100 literally -- well, I don't mean hundreds of pencil pushers.

從字面上看，100 個——嗯，我不是指數百個鉛筆推桿。

Well, we don't have any pencil pushers I guess.

好吧，我猜我們沒有任何鉛筆推桿。

But we have dozens of analysts, cost analysts, and their conclusions, their recommendations get passed along to actually thousands of engineers in operation, in purchasing, etc, and all those work to bring the standard gross margin up.

但是我們有數十位分析師、成本分析師和他們的結論，他們的建議被傳遞給實際上成千上萬的運營、採購等工程師，所有這些都在努力提高標準毛利率。

Look, we haven't been the most profitable Foundry for years for nothing, all right?

看，我們多年來一直不是最賺錢的鑄造廠，好嗎？

So if you start looking at us as a complex machinery that's working well, I think that would be a good start, rather than a company that just works on very simple issues.

因此，如果您開始將我們視為運行良好的複雜機器，我認為這將是一個良好的開端，而不是一家只解決非常簡單問題的公司。

We spent years building up organizations, this cost organization and the market forecast organization that I mentioned to you.

我們花了數年時間建立組織，這個成本組織和我向你提到的市場預測組織。

I'm sorry I went a little long, yes.

對不起，我走了有點長，是的。

No, that's okay.

不，沒關係。

I just -- I'm assuming that these dynamics are going to continue to play out as the year progresses, so that was what I was driving at.

我只是 - 我假設這些動態將隨著時間的推移繼續發揮作用，所以這就是我的目標。

But thanks very much.

不過非常感謝。

And the next question will come from the line of Pranab Sarmah, Daiwa Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自大和資本市場的 Pranab Sarmah。

Good afternoon, this is Pranab from Daiwa.

下午好，我是大和的 Pranab。

Thank you for giving those numbers on your contribution to smartphone and tablet PCs' number.

感謝您為智能手機和平板電腦的貢獻提供這些數字。

Could you give some little clarification point of view whether tablet PC will be included on the Computer side or on the mobile handset -- Communication side?

能否稍微澄清一下，平板電腦是包括在電腦端還是手機端——通信端？

Pranab, the tablets at this point is not being put into either Communication nor Computer.

Pranab，此時的平板電腦既沒有用於通信也沒有用於計算機。

We actually have internally addressed them as Emerging applications.

實際上，我們在內部將它們稱為新興應用程序。

But if it is tablets for -- I think there's the computing.

但如果是平板電腦——我認為是計算。

There's a portion of the tablets that are still in the Computer side but, generally speaking, if we are looking at the media tablets we basically currently put them under Emerging applications.

有一部分平板電腦仍然在計算機端，但一般來說，如果我們正在查看媒體平板電腦，我們目前基本上將它們放在新興應用程序下。

Emerging applications.

新興應用。

So that will be a new classification going from next year?

那麼這將是從明年開始的新分類嗎？

Emerging, she said emerging markets.

新興，她說新興市場。

Emerging applications.

新興應用。

So it's not we have not yet break it out into Computer or Communication, because you -- as you probably --

所以不是我們還沒有把它分解成計算機或通信，因為你——你可能——

It's still pretty small.

它仍然很小。

Right, it's still very small and it is --

對，它仍然很小，而且是——

For us, it's still very small.

對我們來說，它仍然很小。

Right.

正確的。

And it is in a category where we currently say Industrial and Others.

它屬於我們目前所說的工業和其他類別。

Okay, it's under Industrial now, got it.

好的，它現在屬於工業，明白了。

Then, secondly, could you give a little bit of update on the Automotive Semiconductor side, how the progress has been so far and what you are expecting in 2011?

其次，您能否介紹一下汽車半導體方面的最新情況，目前進展如何以及您對 2011 年的預期？

Pranab, we are still -- continue growing our Automotive business.

Pranab，我們仍在繼續發展我們的汽車業務。

In the year of 2010 the Automotive Semiconductor business accounts for about 1.4% of our total Wafer revenue and we expect to remain at about the same level this year.

2010 年汽車半導體業務約占我們晶圓總收入的 1.4%，我們預計今年將保持在相同水平。

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

And my last question is on the CapEx cycle.

我的最後一個問題是關於資本支出週期。

It looks like your CapEx cycle has gone up quite a bit.

看起來您的資本支出週期已經上升了很多。

If I see the last five years' CapEx cycle, excluding 2010, average CapEx was $2.5b roughly.

如果我查看過去五年的資本支出週期（不包括 2010 年），平均資本支出約為 $2.5b。

Now you're moving average CapEx more than $5b on the annual basis.

現在，您每年移動平均資本支出超過 $5b。

And if you bring that 450 nanometer -- 450mm Fab tools by 2014, 2015, your CapEx cycle will be even higher when you move to there.

如果你在 2014 年、2015 年之前帶上 450 納米——450 毫米的 Fab 工具，那麼當你搬到那裡時，你的資本支出週期會更高。

So does it mean your cash flow will have a little bit of constraint for the next five to 10 years, because what about cash you are going to get in?

那麼這是否意味著您的現金流在未來五到十年內會受到一些限制，因為您將獲得的現金呢？

You have to keep on putting in the CapEx and that may lead to [no] upside for dividend -- a cash dividend.

你必須繼續投入資本支出，這可能會導致股息沒有上升空間——現金股息。

No, that's not true.

不，那不是真的。

Our five-year strategic plan calls for an increase of free cash flow before the five-year period ends, actually, well before the five-year period ends.

我們的五年戰略計劃要求在五年期結束之前增加自由現金流，實際上，在五年期結束之前。

We do expect a higher free cash flow in the 2000 --

我們確實預計 2000 年會有更高的自由現金流——

2013.

2013 年。

-- 2013, 2014, 2015, yes.

——2013 年、2014 年、2015 年，是的。

Okay, that's very clear now.

好的，現在很清楚了。

Now I roughly got the idea.

現在我大概明白了。

And your depreciation expense long term looks like it will be pretty high going forward.

從長遠來看，您的折舊費用看起來會很高。

You are guiding for 30% up on this year and, given the high CapEx, probably to remain high for next couple of years I guess.

你預計今年將上漲 30%，考慮到高資本支出，我猜未來幾年可能會保持高位。

We don't know about what will be the depreciation for next year.

我們不知道明年會貶值多少。

We have not estimated a number so far.

到目前為止，我們還沒有估算出一個數字。

Okay, thank you, and have a good quarter ahead.

好的，謝謝你，祝你有個美好的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And the next question will come from the line of Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

下一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I'm curious about the overall Foundry market.

我對整個 Foundry 市場很好奇。

Have you sized the total capacity out there?

您是否確定了總容量？

You're growing your capacity by about 20%.

您的容量增加了大約 20%。

Global Foundries wants to add 60K in Dresden, 60K in New York the next couple of years.

Global Foundries 希望在未來幾年在德累斯頓增加 60K，在紐約增加 60K。

Samsung's building in Austin.

三星在奧斯汀的大樓。

I'm curious about the overall Foundry capacity growth.

我對 Foundry 的整體產能增長感到好奇。

Have you sized that at all?

你有沒有量過？

Our estimate of the overall Foundry capacity growth will increase about 15%, one five, and our capacity will grow bigger than that number.

我們對整體 Foundry 產能增長的估計將增長約 15%，一五，我們的產能增長將超過這個數字。

We estimate it will be 20% this year.

我們估計今年將達到 20%。

In addition to that -- excuse me.

除此之外——對不起。

In addition to what Lora said, I do want to call your attention to the concept of effective capacity, which I introduced two or three quarters ago.

除了 Lora 所說的，我確實想提請您注意有效容量的概念，我在兩三個季度前介紹了該概念。

Effective capacity is what the customers will place orders on.

有效產能是客戶下訂單的依據。

You've got to have the right -- the mature -- the right technology, mature -- production mature technology.

你必須擁有正確的——成熟的——正確的技術，成熟的——生產成熟的技術。

You've got to also have the sufficient customer trust, less effective capacity; that's different from nominal capacity.

你還得有足夠的客戶信任，有效的能力較低；這與標稱容量不同。

But the nominal capacity (multiple speakers) -- the nominal capacity of the Foundry industry, as Lora has estimated, will increase, did you say, 15%?

但是標稱容量（多個揚聲器）——正如 Lora 估計的那樣，鑄造行業的標稱容量會增加，你說的是 15% 嗎？

15%.

15%。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That kind of answers my follow up a little bit.

那種回答我的跟進一點點。

It sounds to me that you wouldn't expect these competitors building really aggressively as well to really disrupt the market, given that their effective Fab, either customer relationships, maybe their technology's just not as mature as TSMC.

在我看來，鑑於他們有效的 Fab、客戶關係，也許他們的技術不如台積電成熟，你不會指望這些競爭對手真正積極地建設並真正擾亂市場。

So am I correct in assuming you do not expect dislocation because of the CapEx that's going on out there?

那麼我是否正確地假設您不會因為正在發生的資本支出而出現混亂？

I have no expectation of what our competitors will do.

我不期望我們的競爭對手會做什麼。

I will not -- I mean I don't know.

我不會——我的意思是我不知道。

And then one final follow up on that is, are your competitors potentially at a competitive advantage in any way, given that a lot of this mobile strength is coming from US and European customers, where they both plan to, or currently have, Fabs?

然後最後一個跟進是，鑑於很多這種移動優勢來自美國和歐洲客戶，他們都計劃或目前擁有 Fab，你的競爭對手是否可能以任何方式獲得競爭優勢？

Does TSMC need to have Fabs in Europe and the US?

台積電需要在歐洲和美國擁有晶圓廠嗎？

Or does that help them in any way?

或者這對他們有任何幫助嗎？

Do you think it's geographically positive for them?

你認為這對他們來說在地理上是積極的嗎？

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

I don't really think so.

我真的不這麼認為。

I think the geographical location of Fabs is a pretty minor factor, frankly.

坦率地說，我認為 Fabs 的地理位置是一個很小的因素。

I think there are other factors that are far more important than the geographical location.

我認為還有比地理位置更重要的其他因素。

For instance, if one Fab has a higher yield than another Fab, then I would choose the higher-yield Fab regardless of where it's located, so I think that.

例如，如果一個 Fab 的產量高於另一個 Fab，那麼我會選擇產量更高的 Fab，而不管它位於何處，所以我認為。

And there are many, many factors in this Foundry business.

在這個代工業務中有很多很多因素。

Location is, I think, a minor one.

位置是，我認為，一個次要的。

Great, I really appreciate that.

太好了，我真的很感激。

And my one final would just be can you guys give us some thoughts on your tax rate?

我的最後一個問題是你們能給我們一些關於你們稅率的想法嗎？

It was a little bit of a surprise in the fourth quarter.

第四節有點出人意料。

What is it for 2011?

2011年是什麼？

That's my final question.

這是我的最後一個問題。

Tax rate will go up in 2011.

2011年稅率將上調。

And in last year our effective tax rate was around 5%, but this year will go up to 10%, 11%.

去年我們的有效稅率在5%左右，但今年會上升到10%、11%。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Well, in the interest of time I think we'll allow the last caller.

好吧，考慮到時間，我想我們會允許最後一個來電者。

Operator, please?

接線員，請說？

Yes, and it is a follow-up question from the line of Mehdi Hosseini, Susquehanna International.

是的，這是 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini 的後續問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I just have a follow-up question -- actually, two follow-up questions.

我只有一個後續問題——實際上是兩個後續問題。

How should we think about the D&A in 2011, depreciation and amortization?

我們應該如何看待2011年的D&A、折舊和攤銷？

Depreciation for this year?

今年折舊？

Yes.

是的。

The depreciation and amortization will go up by around 30% over last year.

折舊和攤銷將比去年增加約30%。

Okay.

好的。

And then in terms of capacity addition and cash outflow for the equipment purchase spending, is it going to be spread throughout the year or front-end loaded or back-end loaded?

再看看設備採購支出的產能增加和現金流出，是全年分攤還是前端加載還是後端加載？

The capital expenditure of the $7.8b will be front-end loaded at around 60%/40% split.

7.8b 美元的資本支出將以 60%/40% 左右的比例在前端加載。

All right, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

She said 60%/40%.

她說60%/40%。

Yes, 60% in first half.

是的，上半年60%。

Front-end loaded, okay.

前端加載，好的。

All right, so this concludes our Q&A session.

好的，我們的問答環節到此結束。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye.

再見。

Bye bye.

再見。

And before we conclude TSMC's 4Q '10 results webcast conference call, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們結束台積電 '10 年第四季度業績網絡直播電話會議之前，請注意，電話會議的重播只能通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 訪問。

Thank you, all.

謝謝你們。