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Operator
Operator
Welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2010 Results Webcast Conference Call.
歡迎來到台積電 2010 年第一季度業績網絡直播電話會議。
This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com, and only in audio mode.
本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播,並且僅以音頻模式進行。
Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.
您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr.
我現在想把會議交給博士。
Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations.
台積電投資者關係負責人伊麗莎白·孫。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Thank you, Eric.
謝謝你,埃里克。
Good morning, and good evening, everyone.
大家早上好,晚上好。
Welcome to TSMC's first quarter 2010 conference call.
歡迎來到台積電 2010 年第一季度電話會議。
Joining us on the call are Dr.
加入我們的電話是博士。
Morris Chang, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dr.
我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀博士。
Shang-Yi Chiang, TSMC's Senior Vice President and Head of R&D, Miss Lora Ho, our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
台積電高級副總裁兼研發主管蔣尚義,台積電副總裁兼首席財務官何珏小姐。
The format for today's conference call will be as follows.
今天電話會議的格式如下。
First, Lora will summarize our operations in the first quarter and give you our guidance for the second quarter.
首先,Lora 將總結我們在第一季度的運營情況,並為您提供我們對第二季度的指導。
Then, Dr.
然後,博士。
Shang-Yi Chiang will give you an overview of TSMC's technology.
蔣尚義將為您介紹台積電的技術。
Afterwards, TSMC's Chairman, Dr.
隨後,台積電董事長 Dr.
Chang will provide his general remarks on the business outlook and a couple of key messages.
Chang 將就業務前景和一些關鍵信息發表一般性評論。
Then, we will open the floor to questions.
然後,我們將開始提問。
For those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者,您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。
Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.
另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。
I would like to remind all listeners that following discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
我想提醒所有聽眾,以下討論可能包含受重大風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述,這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。
Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 15, 2010, and such other documents as TSMC may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time.
有關可能導致實際結果與台積電前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息,請參閱台積電於 2010 年 4 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交文件或提交給 SEC。
Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
除法律要求外,我們不承擔因新信息、未來事件或其他原因而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
And now, I would like to turn the call over to Lora.
現在,我想把電話轉給 Lora。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Thank you, Elizabeth.
謝謝你,伊麗莎白。
Good morning, and good evening to everyone.
早上好,大家晚上好。
Welcome to our first quarter earnings conference call.
歡迎來到我們的第一季度收益電話會議。
I will start today's presentation with the financial highlights of first quarter 2010 and follow by the guidance of our second quarter.
我將從 2010 年第一季度的財務亮點開始今天的演講,然後是我們第二季度的指導。
Please refer to the quarterly financial summary slide on our website.
請參閱我們網站上的季度財務摘要幻燈片。
All dollar figures in are NT dollars unless otherwise stated.
除非另有說明,否則所有美元數字均為新台幣。
Contrary to our first quarter normal seasonality, the first quarter revenue and the wafer shipments slightly increased.
與我們第一季度的正常季節性相反,第一季度的收入和晶圓出貨量略有增加。
The strength came mainly from the customer demand for communications and consumer related applications, as well as very strong demand for our 40nm technology.
實力主要來自客戶對通信和消費相關應用的需求,以及對我們 40nm 技術的非常強勁的需求。
Net sales of NT$92.2 billion increased 0.1% Q-over-Q and 133% year-over-year.
淨銷售額為新台幣 922 億元,環比增長 0.1%,同比增長 133%。
Wafer shipments were 2.55 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, up 4.8%, sequentially, and up 185% compared with the same period last year.
晶圓出貨量為255萬片8英寸等效晶圓,環比增長4.8%,同比增長185%。
Gross margin was 47.9%, representing a 0.6 percentage point decline from the first quarter -- from the last quarter, and a 29 percentage point increase from the first quarter '09 level.
毛利率為 47.9%,比上一季度下降 0.6 個百分點,比 09 年第一季度的水平增加 29 個百分點。
Operating margin of 37% was up 0.5 percentage point sequentially, and up 33.9 percentage points compared with 1Q '09.
營業利潤率為 37%,環比上升 0.5 個百分點,與 09 年第一季度相比上升 33.9 個百分點。
Earnings per share for the first quarter of 2010 reached NT$1.30.
2010年第一季度每股收益達到新台幣1.30元。
ROE was 26.3%.
ROE為26.3%。
On page five, let's now take a look at income statement.
在第五頁,現在讓我們看一下損益表。
First quarter gross margin was 47.9%, down by 0.6 percentage point from 48.5% in fourth quarter '09.
第一季度毛利率為 47.9%,比 09 年第四季度的 48.5% 下降了 0.6 個百分點。
The increase in depreciation could have been more than offset by other manufacturing costs improvement.
折舊的增加可能會被其他製造成本的改善所抵消。
However, the effect from the March 4 earthquake resulted in additional costs from tool recovery and move losses which brought the gross margin by 0.9 percentage point.
然而,3 月 4 日地震的影響導致工具回收和移動損失的額外成本,使毛利率上升了 0.9 個百分點。
The unfavorable exchange rate further reduced the gross margin by 0.4 percentage point.
不利的匯率進一步降低了毛利率0.4個百分點。
Under a scenario without these two items, our first quarter gross margin could have reached 49.5%, marking first quarter '10 the fourth consecutive quarter of margin improvement.
在沒有這兩個項目的情況下,我們第一季度的毛利率可能達到 49.5%,這標誌著 10 年第一季度連續第四個季度利潤率提高。
Operating expense decreased NT$990 million from the prior quarter, mainly due to lower legal fees after the settlement of big lawsuits.
營業費用較上一季度減少新台幣 9.9 億元,主要是由於大宗訴訟和解後的律師費降低。
Non-operating income decreased by NT$430 million from 4Q '09, primarily due to the lower litigation compensations and wafer scrap loss resulting from the March 4th earthquake.
營業外收入較 09 年第四季度減少新台幣 4.3 億元,主要是由於 3 月 4 日地震造成的訴訟賠償和晶圓廢料損失減少。
Net investment gain was NT$180 million, down NT$120 million from the prior quarter as SSMC's earnings was reduced by an inventory variation loss and the less government subsidized.
淨投資收益為新台幣 1.8 億元,較上一季度減少新台幣 1.2 億元,原因是 SSMC 的收益因庫存變動損失和政府補貼減少而減少。
Net margin was 36.5%, up one percentage point, sequentially, and up 32.6 percentage points year-over-year.
淨利潤率為 36.5%,環比增長 1 個百分點,同比增長 32.6 個百分點。
Now, let's turn to revenue analysis.
現在,讓我們轉向收入分析。
The main in the first quarter was stronger than seasonality in all major segments.
第一季度的主要在所有主要領域都強於季節性。
Consumer segment was the strongest with a 9% sequential growth.
消費板塊表現最為強勁,環比增長 9%。
Communications and industrial segments both grew 2%, while computer segment declined 3% from the prior quarter.
通信和工業部門均增長 2%,而計算機部門較上一季度下降 3%。
Overall, revenue from communications, computer, consumer and industrial applications accounted for 39%, 32%, 14% and 15% of our wafer sales in first quarter '10, respectively.
總體而言,通信、計算機、消費和工業應用的收入分別佔 2010 年第一季度晶圓銷售額的 39%、32%、14% 和 15%。
On page seven, by technology total wafer sales from 0.13 micron and below accounted for 71% of our total wafer sales, with a 71 percentage point increase from last quarter.
在第七頁,按技術劃分,0.13 微米及以下的晶圓總銷售額占我們總晶圓銷售額的 71%,比上一季度增加了 71 個百分點。
Meanwhile, the combined revenue from 40nm and 65nm already accounted for 41% of our total wafer sales.
同時,40nm 和 65nm 的總收入已經占到我們晶圓總銷售額的 41%。
For 40nm alone, revenue grew strongly in the first quarter as a result of strong customer demand and continued yearly improvement.
由於強勁的客戶需求和持續的年度改進,僅 40nm 的收入在第一季度就強勁增長。
40nm contribution jumped to 14% of our total wafer sales in the first quarter from 9% in fourth quarter '09.
40nm 貢獻從 09 年第四季度的 9% 躍升至第一季度我們總晶圓銷售額的 14%。
For 65nm, revenue contribution was 27%.
對於 65nm,收入貢獻為 27%。
Meanwhile, 90nm and 0.13 micron represented 17% and 13% of our total wafer sales, respectively.
同時,90nm 和 0.13 微米分別占我們晶圓總銷售額的 17% 和 13%。
Now, let's move on to balance sheets and cash flow statements.
現在,讓我們繼續討論資產負債表和現金流量表。
We ended the first quarter with NT$192 billion in cash and short-term investments, decreased by NT$4 billion from the last quarter, primarily due to the 20% equity investment in Motech of NT$6.2 billion.
第一季結束時現金及短期投資新台幣1,920億元,較上季減少新台幣40億元,主要受茂德20%股權投資新台幣62億元所致。
On the other hand, total current liabilities decreased NT$1 billion, primarily due to the change in timing of employee bonus payments.
另一方面,流動負債總額減少新台幣10億元,主要是由於員工獎金支付時間的變化。
Accounts receivable days were 38 days.
應收賬款天數為 38 天。
Inventory turnover days increased three days to 45 days.
庫存周轉天數增加三天至 45 天。
This is to support increasing demand in the second quarter.
這是為了支持第二季度不斷增長的需求。
Net fixed asset turnover was 1.3 times.
固定資產淨周轉率為1.3倍。
On page nine, cash flow generated by operating activities reached NT$46 billion, representing a decrease of NT$16 billion from the last quarter, primarily due to the payment of employee bonus and the increase in accounts receivable.
第九頁,經營活動產生的現金流達新台幣460億元,較上季減少新台幣160億元,主要是發放員工獎金及應收賬款增加所致。
In investment activities, capital expenditure was NT$46 billion, meanwhile short-term and long-term investment increased for NT$6.4 billion, mainly due to the equity investment in Motech.
投資活動中,資本開支為新台幣460億元,同時短期及長期投資增加新台幣64億元,主要是對茂泰的股權投資。
In sum, the ending cash balance was NT$160 billion, down NT$11 billion, sequentially.
綜上所述,期末現金餘額為1600億新台幣,環比減少110億新台幣。
Free cash flow was an outflow of more than NT$100 million.
自由現金流流出超過1億新台幣。
Let's turn to capacity in capital expenditures.
讓我們轉向資本支出的能力。
Totaled installed capacity was about 2.57 million 8 inch equivalent wafers in the first quarter, representing a 1.3% increase from the last quarter.
一季度總裝機量約為257萬片8英寸等效晶圓,比上一季度增長1.3%。
In the second quarter of '10, we expect the overall capacity to increase by 7%.
在 10 年第二季度,我們預計整體產能將增加 7%。
12 inch capacity will expand by 13% Q-over-Q, meanwhile 8 inch capacity will increase by 2% from the first quarter.
12英寸產能環比增長13%,8英寸產能環比增長2%。
For full year 2010, overall capacity is expected to exceed 10 million 8 inch equivalent wafers, and will reach 11.25 million equivalent wafers.
2010年全年總產能有望突破1000萬片8英寸當量晶圓,將達到1125萬片當量晶圓。
This translates into a 13% year-over-year growth for 2009.
這意味著 2009 年同比增長 13%。
12 inch capacity is expected to increase by 35% year-over-year, and accounts for half of our total capacity.
12英寸產能預計同比增長35%,占我們總產能的一半。
In terms of capital expenditure, we spent US$1.44 billion in the first quarter, increasing US$130 million from the last quarter.
資本支出方面,一季度我們支出14.4億美元,比上一季度增加1.3億美元。
At the moment, we are aggressively expanding our 12 inch capacity.
目前,我們正在積極擴展我們的 12 英寸容量。
We expect the majority of 2010 CapEx to be front-end loaded; more than 60% will be spent in the first half.
我們預計 2010 年資本支出的大部分將來自前端; 60%以上將用於上半年。
I finished my presentation on first quarter financial highlights, now let me give you the guidance for the second quarter of 2010.
我完成了關於第一季度財務亮點的介紹,現在讓我為您提供 2010 年第二季度的指導。
Based on current business outlook and a forecasted exchange rate for 31.30, we expect our consolidated revenue in second quarter to come in between NT$100 billion and NT$102 billion.
根據目前的業務前景和 31.30 的預測匯率,我們預計我們第二季度的綜合收入將在新台幣 1000 億元至新台幣 1020 億元之間。
In terms of margins, we expect our second quarter gross margin to be between 48% and 50%, operating margin to be between 36.5% and 38.5%.
在利潤率方面,我們預計我們第二季度的毛利率在 48% 到 50% 之間,營業利潤率在 36.5% 到 38.5% 之間。
This concludes my remarks today.
我今天的發言到此結束。
Now let me turn the call over to Dr.
現在讓我把電話轉給博士。
Shang-Yi Chiang, our Senior Vice President of R&D for his remarks.
我們的研發高級副總裁蔣尚義先生致辭。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Hello.
你好。
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening.
早上好,下午好,晚上好。
I will spend the next 10 minutes giving you TSMC's technology overview.
我將在接下來的 10 分鐘內為您介紹台積電的技術概況。
TSMC works on three technologies divided into three areas.
台積電致力於三種技術,分為三個領域。
Advanced CMOS technology follows kind of Moore's Law, and I will report to you for 28nm and beyond, including our vision for hardware Moore's Law extension and where it will may or may not end.
先進的 CMOS 技術遵循某種摩爾定律,我將向您報告 28nm 及以後的情況,包括我們對硬件摩爾定律擴展的願景以及它可能會或可能不會結束的地方。
Then, I will touch on "More than Moore"; those are the areas where we added special features for particular applications.
然後,我會談到“超越摩爾”;這些是我們為特定應用程序添加特殊功能的區域。
Examples are embedded memory, CMOS emitting sensors, mixed-signal RF, analog power management, MEMS, (inaudible).
例如嵌入式存儲器、CMOS 發射傳感器、混合信號射頻、模擬電源管理、MEMS(聽不清)。
I will also report to you about TSMC's engagement in integrated level packaging and level 3D-IC stacking backend.
我還將向大家報告台積電在集成級封裝和3D-IC堆疊後端的參與。
Finally, Moore's Law may end by physics or may end by economics, so I will share with you the record cost controls which if we manage well then we can keep Moore's Law continuing longer.
最後,摩爾定律可能終結於物理學,也可能終結於經濟學,所以我將與您分享創紀錄的成本控制,如果我們管理得當,我們可以讓摩爾定律持續更長時間。
The next viewgraph is TSMC's technology roadmap.
下一個視圖是台積電的技術路線圖。
On the left hand side those boxes are the ones already in mass production such as 65nm, 40nm.
在左側,這些盒子是已經量產的盒子,例如 65nm、40nm。
The orange boxes are for high performance with the blue box for low power.
橙色框用於高性能,藍色框用於低功耗。
As you can see, 40nm is already in production.
如您所見,40nm 已經投入生產。
You probably of TSMC's struggle with a year issue last year.
你可能是台積電去年在年度問題上的掙扎。
Now, all these problems are behind us.
現在,所有這些問題都已經過去了。
We are doing very well.
我們做得很好。
The defect end stage is good or better than previous technologies at this time -- the same time as to release the technology.
缺陷結束階段此時優於或優於之前的技術——與發布技術的時間相同。
For example, the defect end stage reached 0.1, in some products even below 0.1 and we engage with more than 60 customers, and half of them are in mass production.
比如缺陷末期達到0.1,有些產品甚至低於0.1,我們接觸的客戶超過60家,其中一半在量產。
20nm -- those boxes on the right hand side -- the left hand side of this box means risk production state.
20nm——右邊的那些盒子——這個盒子的左邊意味著風險生產狀態。
The one of the very bottom is 28LP.
最底部的一個是28LP。
We start production by the end of Q2, which is about two months from now, and this is a version, low power with oxide nitrate.
我們在第二季度末開始生產,也就是從現在起大約兩個月後,這是一個低功率版本,帶有氧化硝酸鹽。
Other three versions, HP, [HPAR] and HPM are all with high-K metal gate.
其他三個版本,HP、[HPAR] 和 HPM 都帶有高 K 金屬柵極。
HPAR is for low power.
HPAR 用於低功耗。
HP is for high performance, where HPM is a combination of high performance and low power, this particular design for mobile interconnect Internet devices.
HP 是針對高性能的,這裡的 HPM 是高性能和低功耗的結合,這種特殊的設計用於移動互聯互聯網設備。
We also made a decision to skip 22nm, go directly to 20nm, and we plan to introduce 20nm at the end of Q3 2013.
我們還決定跳過 22nm,直接進入 20nm,我們計劃在 2013 年第三季度末推出 20nm。
We put in a dash line in those boxes means the detail because they are more than two years from now.
我們在這些方框中用虛線表示細節,因為它們距現在已有兩年多。
So, the exact date will be -- we will discuss with our customer before we finalize that date.
因此,確切的日期將是 - 我們將在最終確定該日期之前與我們的客戶討論。
The reason we skipped 22nm is because we have to detail study from technology point of view and from our customers' performance gain versus cost.
我們跳過 22nm 的原因是因為我們必須從技術角度和客戶的性能增益與成本之間進行詳細研究。
This will give the best solution.
這將提供最佳解決方案。
Let's go to the next.
讓我們進入下一個。
If we judge advanced technology, really there are three key measures.
如果我們判斷先進技術,確實有三個關鍵措施。
One is a transistor, one is a FinFET and the third is the interconnect.
一個是晶體管,一個是 FinFET,第三個是互連。
TSMC's vision for the transistor roadmap; we see the current recoiled planar transistor can be expanded to (inaudible) about 18nm.
台積電對晶體管路線圖的願景;我們看到當前的反沖平面晶體管可以擴展到(聽不清)約 18nm。
So up to 20nm we will continue to use planar transistor.
所以到20nm我們將繼續使用平面晶體管。
Starting from 14nm we will begin to -- we will shift to the so-called FinFET transistor structure; the three dimension structure.
從 14nm 開始,我們將開始——我們將轉向所謂的 FinFET 晶體管結構;三維結構。
Moving forward, slightly we will add more trend engineering and we will begin to use germanium or cadmium oxide as channel material to enhance mobility.
展望未來,我們將稍微添加更多趨勢工程,我們將開始使用鍺或氧化鎘作為通道材料以增強遷移率。
From device physics point of view, FinFET transistor structures would allow us to carry to (inaudible) our 7nm to 8nm.
從器件物理的角度來看,FinFET 晶體管結構將使我們能夠(聽不清)我們的 7nm 到 8nm。
So we still have about four generation to go based on the technology we know today, not including the possible innovations may come up in the next ten years.
因此,基於我們今天所知道的技術,我們還有大約四代的時間,這還不包括未來十年可能出現的創新。
So from physics point of view, especially from transistor, Moore's Law will be able to extend it to 7nm based on everything we already know today.
所以從物理學的角度來看,尤其是從晶體管的角度來看,摩爾定律將能夠基於我們今天已經知道的一切將其擴展到 7nm。
Then, let's look at the lithography.
那麼,我們來看看光刻機。
We had been using this 193 immersion lithography, in fact we will continue that for 20nm.
我們一直在使用這種 193 浸沒式光刻,實際上我們將繼續使用 20nm。
We will look at as a possible opportunity if EUV, or multiple e-beam direct write become cost effective, we will switch because the mass production for 20nm will be begin in 2013.
如果 EUV 或多電子束直寫變得具有成本效益,我們將視為一個可能的機會,我們將轉換,因為 20nm 的大規模生產將於 2013 年開始。
So, we still have a few years to go.
所以,我們還有幾年的時間。
Going forward to 40nm, we believe one of the EUV or multiple e-beam direct write will be the tool for litho.
展望 40nm,我們相信 EUV 或多電子束直寫之一將成為光刻的工具。
And if we look at the interconnect, the measure for interconnect performance is resistance and capacitance.
如果我們查看互連,互連性能的衡量標準是電阻和電容。
So everybody tried to improve their interconnect speed by reducing capacitance, this in so-called low-k material.
所以每個人都試圖通過降低電容來提高互連速度,這就是所謂的低 k 材料。
TSMC pioneer is the first company to ship low-k product in the industry.
台積電先鋒是業內第一家出貨low-k產品的公司。
We are also the first one to introduce second generation low-k material.
我們也是第一個推出第二代低k材料的公司。
And we are the first ones to begin to improve resistance -- we call low-r, in addition to low-k, as you see on the right hand side.
我們是第一個開始提高阻力的人——我們稱之為low-r,除了low-k,正如你在右手邊看到的那樣。
Let's go to next.
讓我們進入下一個。
Now, I will switch to More-than-Moore, give a few examples.
現在,我將切換到More-than-Moore,舉幾個例子。
We are engaging embedded DRAM and at this moment we are introducing 40nm embedded DRAM, both in the high speed version, G version, and low power version, LP version.
我們正在從事嵌入式 DRAM,目前我們正在推出 40nm 嵌入式 DRAM,包括高速版 G 版和低功耗版 LP 版。
Go to next.
轉到下一個。
Another example is the embedded flash.
另一個例子是嵌入式閃存。
This application is a microcontroller.
這個應用程序是一個微控制器。
We are working on 90nm and going to 65nm right now.
我們正在研究 90nm,現在正在開發 65nm。
TSMC has already shipped more than 1 million wafers embedded flash and we are qualified for [very tight] with our biggest bet for automotive applications in this area.
台積電已經出貨了超過 100 萬個晶圓嵌入式閃存,我們有資格 [非常緊張] 以我們在該領域汽車應用的最大賭注。
Go to next.
轉到下一個。
CMOS image sensors.
CMOS圖像傳感器。
We are working with customers on 1.19 micron pixel, and TSMC is the first one to introduce this thing called BSI technology, backside illumination.
我們正在與客戶合作開發 1.19 微米像素,台積電是第一個推出這種稱為 BSI 技術的背面照明技術的公司。
There are certain advantages is we shine light from the backside, and in this case we had to slim down the wafer to 3 microns thick.
有一定的優勢是我們從背面照射光,在這種情況下,我們必須將晶圓減薄至 3 微米厚。
The handling, the technology, extremely difficult.
處理,技術,極其困難。
We already shipped products using this BSI technology in 8 inch wafers and we are working on 12 inch wafers right now.
我們已經使用這種 BSI 技術在 8 英寸晶圓上交付了產品,我們現在正在開發 12 英寸晶圓。
Next.
下一個。
For the power device, we show examples of this technology, give a breakdown voltage from 750 volts -- that's not, I'm sorry, 700 volts to 850 volts.
對於功率器件,我們展示了這項技術的示例,給出了 750 伏的擊穿電壓——對不起,不是 700 伏到 850 伏。
And in this area, there are many, many different applications for 12 volts, for 16 volts and just require a different way of optimizing these devices.
在這個領域,12 伏和 16 伏有很多不同的應用,只是需要一種不同的方式來優化這些設備。
The next one is the MEMS technology.
下一個是MEMS技術。
TSMC takes a special approach.
台積電採取了一種特殊的方法。
We make CMOS our one wafer, MEMS another wafer and package on the third wafer and then we bond them together, and this particular case allowed us to optimize all three of them independently and then, finally, we put them together.
我們將 CMOS 作為我們的一個晶圓,將 MEMS 作為另一個晶圓並在第三個晶圓上進行封裝,然後將它們粘合在一起,這種特殊情況使我們能夠獨立優化所有三個晶圓,然後最後將它們組合在一起。
Next please.
下一位。
On the package side I would just like to show you one example.
在包裝方面,我只想向您展示一個示例。
We are -- we began to work on 2D and 3D integration.
我們是——我們開始致力於 2D 和 3D 集成。
This looking forward, I think before -- especially after we -- after the Moore's Law began to slow down, we still need a solution for system integration, and as 2D, 3D integration use silicon as a substrate, allowed to make the entire system into a very small package with high performance and a low power.
這個展望,我認為之前——尤其是我們之後——在摩爾定律開始放緩之後,我們仍然需要係統集成的解決方案,並且由於 2D、3D 集成使用矽作為基板,允許製作整個系統封裝成一個非常小的封裝,具有高性能和低功耗。
So we began to work on 3D stacking and a silicon interposer for 2D integration.
所以我們開始研究 3D 堆疊和用於 2D 集成的矽中介層。
Next, please.
下一位。
My final viewgraph, TSMC in the past has been -- controlled the wafer cost from one generation to the next -- the build-out costs within 15%.
我的最後一個視圖,台積電過去一直 - 將晶圓成本從一代控製到下一代 - 將構建成本控制在 15% 以內。
And right now, with increases in the complexity of transistors, for example, we began to use high-k metal gate.
而現在,隨著晶體管複雜性的增加,例如,我們開始使用高k金屬柵極。
And looking forward, likely we will use FinFET as a 3D structure.
展望未來,我們可能會將 FinFET 用作 3D 結構。
We see the pathway wafer costs increase will be very steep because of transistors and because of lithography.
我們看到,由於晶體管和光刻技術,晶圓成本的增長將非常陡峭。
For example, the -- if we use EUV we are look -- we are expecting a single set of EUV2 of a cost of US$100 million.
例如,如果我們使用 EUV,我們期待一套 EUV2 的成本為 1 億美元。
So TSMC will work harder with our wafer supplier to find solutions, control the costs and allow the Moore's Law to continue longer.
因此,台積電將與我們的晶圓供應商更加努力地尋找解決方案,控製成本,讓摩爾定律持續更長時間。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Now, our call will be turned to our Chairman and CEO, Dr.
現在,我們的電話將轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官,博士。
Morris Chang, for his general comments.
Morris Chang,對他的一般性評論。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Hello, ladies and gentlemen.
你好,女士們,先生們。
I will make a few comments on various topics that are of interest to you, and then we will be open for questions.
我將就您感興趣的各種主題發表一些評論,然後我們將接受提問。
First, on business outlook, as the CFO has indicated in her report of the first quarter and in her guidance for the second quarter at TSMC is very good -- very brisk in the past quarter and now.
首先,關於業務前景,正如首席財務官在她的第一季度報告和她對台積電第二季度的指導中所指出的那樣,非常好——在過去一個季度和現在都非常活躍。
As far as the overall electronic equipment market is concerned, we see that the PC market will probably be up 17% this year.
就整體電子設備市場而言,我們看到今年PC市場可能會增長17%。
That is an upward revision of our forecast from last quarter of 14%.
這是我們對上一季度 14% 的預測的上調。
Handsets will be up 13% this year.
手機今年將增長 13%。
That is also an upward revision.
這也是向上修正。
Digital consumer electronics will be up 7% from last year, and that forecast is unchanged from our last forecast.
數字消費電子產品將比去年增長 7%,該預測與我們上次的預測相同。
Semiconductor market -- world semiconductor market will be up 22% from last year.
半導體市場——世界半導體市場將比去年增長22%。
That is an upward revision from the 18% growth that we had forecast last time.
這是我們上次預測的 18% 增長的向上修正。
Foundry market, we forecast, will be up 36% this year.
我們預測,代工市場今年將增長 36%。
Now, the next topic I am going to discuss is the supply chain inventory.
現在,我要討論的下一個主題是供應鏈庫存。
We have complete data only for the end of fourth quarter, and our data indicated that as of the end of fourth quarter, inventory was below normal seasonal levels.
我們只有第四季度末的完整數據,我們的數據表明,截至第四季度末,庫存低於正常的季節性水平。
Also, DOI, days of inventory, was below seasonal level by about ten days at the end of the fourth quarter.
此外,在第四季度末,庫存天數 DOI 低於季節性水平約 10 天。
First quarter data are very sketchy.
第一季度的數據非常粗略。
We only have about 15% to 20% of first quarter inventory data and it is premature to draw any conclusions from those sketchy data.
我們只有大約 15% 到 20% 的第一季度庫存數據,從這些粗略的數據中得出任何結論還為時過早。
My next topic is our capacity expansion.
我的下一個話題是我們的產能擴張。
Our capacity expansion is very much in progress.
我們的產能擴張正在進行中。
As the CFO has pointed out, our capital spending in the first quarter is as planned.
正如首席財務官所指出的,我們第一季度的資本支出按計劃進行。
In terms of the physical progress I would say that we are expanding, we are adding phase five to Fab 12 which is in Hsinchu.
就實際進展而言,我想說我們正在擴張,我們正在為位於新竹的 Fab 12 增加第五階段。
And we are adding phase four to Fab 14, which is in Tainan.
我們正在為位於台南的 Fab 14 添加第四階段。
Both Fab 12 and Fab 14 are 12 inch GigaFabs.
Fab 12 和 Fab 14 都是 12 英寸 GigaFab。
Each of those is expected to produce 100,000 12 inch wafers per month, and each of those if very close to that mark already.
其中每一個預計每月生產 100,000 片 12 英寸晶圓,而且每一個都已經非常接近這個標記。
In addition to those Fabs, we are also going to break ground on a new GigaFab, Fab 15.
除了這些 Fab 之外,我們還將在新的 GigaFab Fab 15 上破土動工。
It will be in Taichung.
會在台中。
Taichung is about half an hour, a bullet train away from Hsinchu and you can drive there in about one hour or so.
台中距離新竹約半小時車程,從新竹搭乘動車約一小時即可到達。
In Taichung we will be adding -- we will be breaking ground for another GigaFab, and in that new GigaFab we will first start with 40nm production and then we will expand our 28nm production in that new Fab too and then, of course, later on we will be doing 20nm production, and so on.
在台中,我們將增加——我們將為另一個 GigaFab 破土動工,在新的 GigaFab 中,我們將首先從 40nm 生產開始,然後我們將在新 Fab 中擴大我們的 28nm 生產,當然,稍後再進行我們將進行 20nm 生產,依此類推。
My next topic is our structural profitability.
我的下一個主題是我們的結構性盈利能力。
By structural profitability, I mean profitability independent of utilization.
我所說的結構盈利能力是指獨立於利用率的盈利能力。
In the P&Ls that you have been looking at every quarter, the level of utilization has always masked the structural profitability because when utilization is very high, as it is now, the gross margin percentage would be quite high.
在你每個季度查看的損益表中,利用率水平總是掩蓋結構性盈利能力,因為當利用率非常高時,就像現在一樣,毛利率百分比會很高。
And when the utilization was slow, as it was a year ago, the gross margin percentage will be very low.
而當利用率緩慢時,就像一年前一樣,毛利率將非常低。
Now, of course, the management team looks at a probability independent of utilization.
當然,現在管理團隊會考慮獨立於利用率的概率。
Now, I am happy to report that our structural profitability has improved in the last couple of years; year '09 and this year.
現在,我很高興地報告,我們的結構性盈利能力在過去幾年有所改善; 09 年和今年。
It has improved by a couple percentage points.
它提高了幾個百分點。
Now, this is a major direction of ours to improve structural profitability and we are devoting a lot of energy and investment to do it.
現在,這是我們提高結構性盈利能力的一個主要方向,我們正在投入大量的精力和投資來做這件事。
The next topic I will comment on is IBM outsourcing; that is, outsourcing from customers that have their own Fabs or used to have their own Fabs.
我要評論的下一個主題是 IBM 外包;也就是說,從擁有自己的 Fab 或曾經擁有自己的 Fab 的客戶那里外包。
Now, 2009 was very bad for IBM outsourcing because our revenue from IBMs in 2009 declined 42% from 2008.
現在,2009 年對於 IBM 外包來說非常糟糕,因為 2009 年我們從 IBM 獲得的收入比 2008 年下降了 42%。
That was because in a bad year like 2009, the IBMs took in the sourcing; they did not outsource as much.
那是因為在 2009 年這樣糟糕的一年,IBM 接手了採購;他們沒有外包那麼多。
This year, IBM outsourcing has bounced back and we are, of course, a very major beneficiary of that.
今年,IBM 外包已經反彈,我們當然是其中的主要受益者。
As far as the long-term trend is concerned, there is no question that IBMs has been increasing their outsourcing.
就長期趨勢而言,毫無疑問,IBM 一直在增加外包。
From 2003 to 2008, the five-period, TSMC revenue from IBMs grew 15.7% per year compounded annually.
從 2003 年到 2008 年這五個時期,台積電來自 IBM 的收入以每年 15.7% 的複合年增長率增長。
This was faster growth than our revenue from the Fabless customers.
這比我們來自 Fabless 客戶的收入增長更快。
So the long-term trend is very healthy, the IBMs increasing their outsourcing and we are a major beneficiary.
所以長期趨勢是非常健康的,IBM 增加了外包,我們是主要的受益者。
Last year, it dropped for us 42% and this year it is bouncing back.
去年,它對我們來說下降了 42%,今年它正在反彈。
Last topic I am going to comment on is our business in China.
我要評論的最後一個話題是我們在中國的業務。
We began our business in China earnestly in '04.
04年,我們認真地在中國開展業務。
Since then, our business from Mainland China has grown at a compounded average growth rate of 63% per year.
從那時起,我們在中國大陸的業務以每年63%的複合平均增長率增長。
Last year, our business from China, that is, orders placed by customers that are based in China, has exceeded our revenue from customers in Japan.
去年,我們來自中國的業務,即來自中國客戶的訂單,已經超過了我們來自日本客戶的收入。
That was something we hardly expected a few years ago.
這是幾年前我們幾乎沒有預料到的。
Actually, even bigger things were happening in Europe.
實際上,更大的事情正在歐洲發生。
Our business from Europe used to be about the same as our business in Japan, but the business from Europe overtook the business from Japan several years ago.
我們在歐洲的業務過去和我們在日本的業務差不多,但是歐洲的業務在幾年前就超過了日本的業務。
And now, the business from China has overtaken the business from Japan.
而現在,來自中國的業務已經超過了來自日本的業務。
Also, I want to say just a few words about our manufacturing operation in China.
另外,我想簡單談談我們在中國的製造業務。
We have had an 8 inch Fab in Shanghai since '04 and we have been increasing the capacity of that Fab also.
自 04 年以來,我們在上海擁有 8 英寸的 Fab,我們也一直在增加該 Fab 的產能。
It will be 50,000 8 inch wafers per month by the end of this year.
到今年年底,每月將生產 50,000 片 8 英寸晶圓。
Those are all the comments I have at this point.
這些是我在這一點上的所有評論。
We are open for questions.
我們歡迎提問。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
This concludes our prepared statements.
我們準備好的陳述到此結束。
Operator, please open the floor to questions.
接線員,請開始提問。
Operator
Operator
At this time we will open the floor for questions.
在這個時候,我們將開始提問。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Your first question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Barclays Capital.
您的第一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 CJ Muse。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Good evening.
晚上好。
Thank you for taking my questions.
謝謝你接受我的問題。
First question, with Fab 15 breaking ground in 2010, is there any change for your CapEx budget for full year 2010?
第一個問題,Fab 15 在 2010 年破土動工,2010 年全年的資本支出預算有什麼變化嗎?
And I guess as part of this question, when will you start equipping Fab 15?
我想作為這個問題的一部分,你們什麼時候開始裝備 Fab 15?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
The Fab 15 we will start groundbreaking in the middle of this year, but we do not expect there will be a huge investment coming -- capital expenditure coming from that Fab yet.
Fab 15 我們將在今年年中開始破土動工,但我們預計不會有巨額投資——該 Fab 的資本支出尚未到來。
It is going to take more than one year for the Fab construction going forward.
Fab建設需要一年多的時間。
For the time being, we do not have a plan to change our CapEx guidance for 2010.
目前,我們沒有計劃更改 2010 年的資本支出指導。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And as a quick follow-up, considering the increased competitive landscape for the foundry industry and as you talked about on the call earlier, increasing complexity at the next nodes and the strong demand you are seeing for 40nm and your work on 28nm including Fab 15, and I know it's early, but what does this suggest for your CapEx spending in 2011?
作為快速跟進,考慮到代工行業競爭格局的加劇以及您之前在電話會議上談到的那樣,下一個節點的複雜性增加以及您對 40nm 和包括 Fab 15 在內的 28nm 工作的強勁需求,我知道現在還為時過早,但這對您 2011 年的資本支出有何啟示?
Does this mean capital intensity hovers above 40% well into 2011?
這是否意味著到 2011 年資本密集度仍徘徊在 40% 以上?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, capital intensity, of course, is capital spending divided by that year's revenue.
當然,資本密集度是資本支出除以當年的收入。
And that number, that percentage may indeed go up for a couple years because we have shifted to a higher growth path, I believe.
我相信,這個數字,這個百分比可能確實會上升幾年,因為我們已經轉向了更高的增長路徑。
And in -- while the capital intensity increases I think that we will have growth -- higher growth to also show our investors.
在——雖然資本密集度增加,我認為我們會有增長——更高的增長也向我們的投資者展示。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
If I could just follow-up real quickly, in terms of that higher capital intensity, how much of that would you ascribe your views of taking share in the foundry space versus the increased capital intensity at the next nodes, given some of the new technologies?
如果我能快速跟進,就更高的資本密集度而言,考慮到一些新技術,你會在多大程度上歸因於你在代工領域的份額與在下一個節點增加資本密集度的觀點?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, I really have not stopped to look at that.
好吧,我真的沒有停下來看看。
Just as a first answer to your question, I would say that the increase because of the higher node is expected to be compensated for by price.
作為對您問題的第一個答案,我會說由於更高的節點而導致的增加預計將通過價格得到補償。
And so, the first answer to your question is that I believe that most of it -- most of the increase in capital intensity will -- is attributed to the growth that we are expecting.
因此,對您的問題的第一個答案是,我相信其中大部分——資本密集度的大部分增加將——歸因於我們預期的增長。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Very helpful.
非常有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Randy Abrams with Credit Suisse.
下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Hi, good evening.
嗨,晚上好。
On 28nm with the higher technical complexity, could you talk about early stage how you are sort of looking, and also process maturity?
在技術複雜度更高的 28nm 上,您能否談談您在早期階段的外觀以及工藝成熟度?
And, how are you seeing customer uptick relative to similar timeframe early in the 40nm transition?
而且,您如何看待 40nm 過渡早期相對於類似時間框架的客戶增長?
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Yes.
是的。
This is Shang-Yi Chiang.
這是蔣尚義。
I -- indeed high-k metal gate is considered pretty challenging for technology development, and at this moment, we are proceeding according to schedule.
我——確實,高k金屬柵極被認為對技術開發具有相當大的挑戰性,而此時,我們正在按計劃進行。
And we have -- let me think.
我們有——讓我想想。
We have engaged more than 20 customers at this moment and we expect about a half dozen customer product tape-out before the end of this year.
目前我們已經接觸了 20 多家客戶,我們預計今年年底前將有大約 6 家客戶產品流片。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Let me add.
讓我補充一下。
This is Morris Chang now.
這是現在的張慕容。
What Shang-Yi says is that we have engaged some 20 customers.
尚義說,我們已經聘請了大約 20 位客戶。
By engaging -- we are working with them in the pre tape-out phase.
通過參與——我們在流片前階段與他們合作。
They haven't given us the tapes yet, but we have started to work with them already.
他們還沒有給我們磁帶,但我們已經開始與他們合作了。
And that is the way things should be done in this business.
這就是這個行業應該做的事情。
That is a pretty long collaborative period before tape-outs are given, and we are in that phase right now.
在進行流片之前,這是一個相當長的合作期,而我們現在正處於那個階段。
Tape-outs will not be available until about -- well, for the first technology which is the low power technology.
直到第一個技術是低功耗技術,流片才會可用。
Right?
正確的?
Tape-outs, even for that first technology of 28nm, tape-outs will not be available until the end of this year.
流片,即使是 28nm 的第一個技術,也要到今年年底才能進行流片。
Right?
正確的?
So it is a bit -- we are still very much in the developmental stage, so -- and we do have -- in the development stage we do have our defect goals.
所以有點——我們仍然處於開發階段,所以——我們確實有——在開發階段,我們確實有我們的缺陷目標。
And -- but it is premature to discuss yields.
而且——但現在討論收益率還為時過早。
Well, actually, our goals are to be very economical to the customer such that he will buy them, and also very profitable to us.
好吧,實際上,我們的目標是對客戶來說非常經濟,以便他會購買它們,並且對我們來說也非常有利可圖。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you for that.
謝謝你。
And a follow-up question with two approaches, the gate first versus gate last, will that make it more difficult for, say, an IBM alliance member if it is like an STMicro or Freescale, the designs on an IBM process, to move into TSMC, and maybe at the same time some of the customers you work with on 28, does it make it tougher for a TSMC-like process or for them to go to a second source for the design?
還有一個後續問題,有兩種方法,先門與後門,如果 IBM 聯盟成員像意法半導體或飛思卡爾這樣的 IBM 工藝設計,是否會更難進入台積電,也許同時與您在 28 上合作的一些客戶,是否讓類似台積電的工藝變得更難,或者讓他們去第二個設計來源?
So, maybe talk about the challenge on 28, if it is changing any versus history?
那麼,也許談談 28 日的挑戰,如果它改變了歷史?
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
The quick answer is yes.
快速的答案是肯定的。
So, this is the first time in many years that we see the industry diversified to such a large degree.
因此,這是多年來我們第一次看到行業多元化程度如此之大。
Previously, like 90nm, 65nm pulled the design from one foundry to the other.
以前,與 90nm 一樣,65nm 將設計從一個代工廠轉移到另一個代工廠。
It is not as difficult as it for 28nm, and we do experience that.
它不像 28nm 那樣困難,我們確實經歷過。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay, thanks a lot.
好的,非常感謝。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
You're welcome.
別客氣。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Pranab Sumar with Daiwa Securities.
您的下一個問題來自大和證券的 Pranab Sumar。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
Good afternoon.
下午好。
This is Pranab from Daiwa.
這是大和的Pranab。
I have -- first question is basically on your wafer costing chart.
我有——第一個問題基本上是在你的晶圓成本表上。
Thanks for giving those charts.
感謝您提供這些圖表。
You have indicated 28nm versus 14nm cost will increase quite significantly compared to, say, 45nm versus 65nm or 65nm versus 90nm, which is quite stable.
您已經指出,與 45nm 與 65nm 或 65nm 與 90nm 相比,28nm 與 14nm 的成本將顯著增加,這相當穩定。
How much ASP can you command on 28nm so can -- so that you can at least maintain decent margins out there?
你可以在 28nm 上控制多少 ASP,這樣你至少可以保持可觀的利潤?
Basically, that would be my first question because the cost is increasing quite rapidly there -- 28nm.
基本上,這將是我的第一個問題,因為那裡的成本正在迅速增加——28nm。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
This is Shang-Yi Chiang again.
這又是蔣尚義。
To answer your question, we -- that curve I draw is didn't -- is more trying to make the point.
為了回答你的問題,我們——我畫的那條曲線沒有——更多地試圖說明這一點。
Those -- please don't take the number, quantitative number seriously.
那些——請不要把數字,量化的數字當回事。
We tried to deliver the message -- we began to go to 28nm because of the high-l metal gate.
我們試圖傳遞信息——我們開始走向 28nm,因為高 l 金屬柵極。
The transistor -- the cost for making the transistor did go up quite a bit.
晶體管——製造晶體管的成本確實上升了很多。
And we look forward, we see going to 20nm and below the transistor continued to be very complex.
我們期待著,我們看到 20nm 及以下的晶體管仍然非常複雜。
In addition to high-k metal gate, we also built in a lot of what we call trend engineering.
除了high-k metal gate,我們還內置了很多我們稱之為趨勢工程的東西。
Every one of them costs additional, an additional wafer cost.
它們中的每一個都需要額外的成本,額外的晶圓成本。
And we will also be very much alert that the lithography cost will be very high.
而且我們也會非常警惕光刻成本會非常高。
We go to 28nm, we will start with still the same 193 immersion lithography, but we added a lot of special features into this lithography technology.
我們到了 28nm,我們還是從同樣的 193 浸沒式光刻開始,但是我們在這個光刻技術中加入了很多特殊的功能。
The -- from the high school physics we know when we try to make an image with an image dimension smaller than a wavelength we begin to see interference patterns and this image will not be clear.
- 從高中物理我們知道,當我們嘗試製作圖像尺寸小於波長的圖像時,我們開始看到干涉圖案,並且該圖像將不清晰。
Now we are looking at we use 193nm light as wavelengths -- 193nm.
現在我們正在研究使用 193nm 光作為波長——193nm。
We try to print 20nm.
我們嘗試打印 20nm。
It is only one tenth of the wavelength with the pattern, so that takes a lot of work to make it happen.
它只有圖案波長的十分之一,因此需要大量工作才能實現。
And all those are add-on costs, even before we use EUV or multiple e-beam.
所有這些都是附加成本,甚至在我們使用 EUV 或多電子束之前。
That is why we draw that curve just to highlight the change in transistor and the trend for the very high cost of lithography.
這就是為什麼我們繪製這條曲線只是為了突出晶體管的變化以及光刻成本非常高的趨勢。
That is -- we still be -- we still are able to handle 28nm to maintain the cost to be cost effective for customers to migrate to 28nm.
也就是說——我們仍然是——我們仍然能夠處理 28nm,以保持成本對客戶遷移到 28nm 具有成本效益。
And to go beyond that, we will try very hard and we believe we can do that.
為了超越這一點,我們將非常努力,我們相信我們可以做到。
It really hasn't happened yet.
它真的還沒有發生。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Pranab, if I can make some comment on this.
Pranab,如果我可以對此發表一些評論。
You are asking about the cost and price on 28nm.
您在詢問 28nm 的成本和價格。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Exactly.
確切地。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We do have an internal goal for 28nm cost.
我們確實有一個 28nm 成本的內部目標。
It is a parity to our 40nm.
它與我們的 40nm 相當。
We are working hard to achieve that goal.
我們正在努力實現這一目標。
In the same time, we believe the value we will bring the customer in 28nm on the pricing side, we should be able to get a reasonable price so that the SGM for 28nm will not be lower than the prior note.
同時,我們相信我們在定價方面給28nm客戶帶來的價值,我們應該能夠得到一個合理的價格,使28nm的SGM不會低於之前的說明。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you, Lora, for clarification.
謝謝你,勞拉,澄清。
And my second question is on SMIC, assuming like you get approval to get that 8% SMIC stake, would you consider SMIC to be your competitor, and alliance after that?
我的第二個問題是關於中芯國際,假設你獲得批准獲得中芯國際 8% 的股份,你會認為中芯國際是你的競爭對手,然後結盟嗎?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Right now they are a competitor, even though we own 8% -- we will own 8% of SMIC.
現在他們是競爭對手,儘管我們擁有 8% 的股份——我們將擁有中芯國際 8% 的股份。
But that was a result of the settlement of the suit that we had with SMIC.
但這是我們與中芯國際達成和解的結果。
And we declared when we received it that we would not participate in any aspect of the management of SMIC, we will not represented on the Board.
我們在收到通知時聲明,我們不會參與中芯國際管理的任何方面,我們不會代表董事會。
We will not participate in the management, and we will not cooperate with SMIC.
我們不參與管理,也不與中芯國際合作。
So, they are a competitor.
所以,他們是競爭對手。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
That means would likely to sell that 8% stake on the market because there is no point of holding competitor shares?
這意味著可能會在市場上出售這 8% 的股份,因為持有競爭對手的股份沒有任何意義?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, yes.
嗯,是。
Yes, we will consider that, but I believe there is a lock-up period.
是的,我們會考慮這一點,但我相信有一個鎖定期。
But, certainly, yes we will consider that.
但是,當然,是的,我們會考慮這一點。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Can I ask one more -- ?
我可以再問一個——?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Yes, actually -- yes, yes, well, okay.
是的,實際上——是的,是的,好吧,好吧。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Can I ask one more question because my two questions is over?
我可以再問一個問題,因為我的兩個問題已經結束了嗎?
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Pranab, can you go back to the queue?
Pranab,你能回到隊列中嗎?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
您的下一個問題來自美國銀行/美林證券的 Dan Heyler。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Hi there.
你好呀。
Good evening.
晚上好。
I had a couple of follow-ups from this afternoon.
從今天下午開始,我進行了幾次跟進。
So the 28nm comments -- and my understanding is the tape-outs were expected to be later this year.
所以 28nm 的評論——我的理解是流片預計將在今年晚些時候。
Based on the comments that were last quarter, the comments were that 28nm would be taping-out in the middle of this year, so I am wondering what has changed since then.
根據上個季度的評論,評論是 28nm 將在今年年中流片,所以我想知道從那時起發生了什麼變化。
Is it is more the challenges in cost?
是不是成本方面的挑戰更大?
Is it customer reception?
是客戶接待嗎?
Is it that you quite busy right now, or if you could just elaborate a little bit on the change there?
是您現在很忙,還是您可以詳細說明一下那裡的變化?
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dan, this is Shang-Yi.
丹,這是尚義。
Yes.
是的。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Yes, hi there.
是的,你好。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Indeed, we had major customers -- they had their tape-out delayed for one quarter from third quarter to fourth quarter.
事實上,我們有主要客戶——他們的流片從第三季度到第四季度推遲了一個季度。
And it happened to more than one customer.
它發生在不止一位客戶身上。
And it is not part of the -- TMSC was not involved in this decision and cost, so we cannot comment on what caused that.
它不屬於——TMSC 沒有參與這個決定和成本,所以我們無法評論是什麼原因造成的。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
That's great.
那太棒了。
And then, my second question was on the More than Moore strategy that you have had in place for a number of years.
然後,我的第二個問題是關於你已經實施多年的“超越摩爾”戰略。
There, you are quite busy in a number of fronts, and I am wondering what the capacity situation is on 8 inch.
在那裡,您在許多方面都很忙,我想知道 8 英寸的容量情況如何。
The industry seems very tight right now on 8 inch.
這個行業現在在 8 英寸上似乎非常緊張。
There is, in fact, report -- increasingly reports of shortages on 8 inch.
事實上,有報導——越來越多的報導稱 8 英寸的短缺。
So it you could elaborate whether you think that is merely cyclical or whether or not we do need to see -- become more aggressive in adding more 8 inch, and if so, how you would go about doing that, whether it would acquisitions or internal?
因此,您可以詳細說明您是否認為這僅僅是周期性的,或者我們是否確實需要看到——在增加更多 8 英寸方面變得更加積極,如果是這樣,您將如何去做,無論是收購還是內部?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Dan, our every -- More than Moore, actually, gradually to see some results.
丹,我們的每一個——比摩爾,實際上,逐漸看到了一些成果。
So, right now, our 8 inch is quite full as she is very close to 100% utilization.
所以,現在,我們的 8 英寸已經很滿了,因為她的利用率非常接近 100%。
So we are doing the debottlenecking to incremental add up of equipment and we also want to expand our Fab 10 in Shanghai for some of the More than Moore technologies.
因此,我們正在消除設備增量的瓶頸,我們還希望擴大我們在上海的 Fab 10,以獲取一些超越摩爾技術。
So to -- the simple answer to your question on 8 inch is, yes, we are adding some capacity for 8 inch.
所以——對你關於 8 英寸的問題的簡單回答是,是的,我們正在為 8 英寸增加一些容量。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, I should add -- this is Morris Chang.
好吧,我應該補充一下——這是Morris Chang。
I should add that one of the reasons that the 8 inch Fabs are so full now is that -- is because of More than Moore.
我應該補充一點,現在 8 英寸 Fab 如此滿的原因之一是——因為不僅僅是摩爾。
We have been pursing More than Moore for three years and the results have continued to come out.
三年來,我們一直在追求“超越摩爾”,並且結果不斷出現。
The results are the applications, the specialized technologies that are adapted to the More than Moore applications.
結果是應用程序,適用於超過摩爾應用程序的專業技術。
And they have started to bring benefits.
他們已經開始帶來好處。
And that is one of the reasons that the 8" Fabs are more than full right now.
這就是現在 8 英寸 Fab 已經滿員的原因之一。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Thanks, and one follow-up, if I may, on that.
謝謝,如果可以的話,還有一個後續行動。
Dr.
博士。
Chang, thank you.
張,謝謝。
What would you think kind of a longer term growth of that 8 inch More than Moore would be?
你認為比摩爾多 8 英寸的長期增長會是什麼?
Would it be, obviously, below -- I would imagine below the overall average for your business, but are we talking a good 5% growth business?
顯然,它會低於 - 我會想像低於您業務的整體平均水平,但我們是否正在談論一個良好的 5% 增長業務?
Are we talking a high single digit growth type of business?
我們是在談論高個位數增長的業務類型嗎?
Any thoughts there?
有什麼想法嗎?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
I think t is very difficult to quantify on the longer trend what is the growth rate on the 8 inch.
我認為 t 在較長的趨勢上很難量化 8 英寸的增長率是多少。
But I -- we have seen one phenomenon that our 8 inch CMOS logic gradually migrated to 12 inch.
但是我——我們看到了一個現象,我們的 8 英寸 CMOS 邏輯逐漸遷移到 12 英寸。
And the logic part actually will see some decline.
邏輯部分實際上會有所下降。
But on the other hand, the More than Moore part will increase quite significantly.
但另一方面,More than Moore 部分將顯著增加。
So I can say almost the -- if you add up all the 8 inch we believe we are going to see the long-term growth for 8 inch business.
所以我幾乎可以說——如果你把所有的 8 英寸加起來,我們相信我們將看到 8 英寸業務的長期增長。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, I should add that -- this Morris Chang.
好吧,我應該補充一點——這個 Morris Chang。
I should add that, actually, one of the original, or maybe the original objective of the More than Moore effort was to keep the 8 inch's Fab full for a long time.
我應該補充一點,實際上,More than Moore 努力的最初目標之一,或者可能是最初的目標是讓 8 英寸的 Fab 長時間保持滿載。
So, well, at least up to now that has happened.
所以,好吧,至少到目前為止,這已經發生了。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of JJ Park with JPMorgan.
您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 JJ Park。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
My first question is about the gross margin guidance.
我的第一個問題是關於毛利率的指導。
You mentioned that the more large gross margin in the Q1 was 49.5%, but given almost 10%, say, to gross, second quarter gross margin seems to be a little bit (inaudible).
您提到第一季度更大的毛利率為 49.5%,但考慮到毛利率接近 10%,第二季度毛利率似乎有點(聽不清)。
Is it due to the potential -- the FX rate or is there any other one-time cost in the second quarter?
是因為潛在的——外匯匯率,還是第二季度有其他一次性成本?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
There are two reasons on -- I would like to add two comments on the -- on our Q2 margin guidance.
有兩個原因 - 我想就我們的第二季度保證金指導添加兩條評論。
We are adding capacity aggressively on Q2.
我們在第二季度積極增加產能。
We have said 12 inch capacity will go up by 13% in second quarter and combined capacity will go up by 7% Q-over-Q.
我們曾表示,第二季度 12 英寸產能將增長 13%,總產能將環比增長 7%。
That is one thing.
那是一回事。
So, we expect the depreciation will go up.
所以,我們預計貶值會上升。
On the other hand, the NT continued to appreciate.
另一方面,新台幣繼續升值。
We guided 31.3 as the exchange rate we use for second quarter guidance.
我們將 31.3 作為我們用於第二季度指導的匯率。
This is a 2% appreciation versus the first quarter, and that has some impact on margins as well.
與第一季度相比,這是 2% 的升值,這也對利潤率產生了一些影響。
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝你。
My second question, regarding the new business, I know it is premature, but as further note just as going for the additive for the general lighting, I am just wondering what TSMC's shift trend EBITDA if you move into the LED, compared to the UV existing players.
我的第二個問題,關於新業務,我知道現在還為時過早,但正如進一步說明一般照明的添加劑一樣,我只是想知道如果你進入 LED,與 UV 相比,台積電的 EBITDA 轉變趨勢如何現有玩家。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Yes --.
是的 - 。
The LED strategy, is that what you asked?
LED策略,是你問的嗎?
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
The LED strategy, basically, we plan to make a good return.
LED戰略,基本上,我們打算做一個不錯的回報。
We plan to make our LED business a very profitable one and the main differentiation that we are seeking will be through technology.
我們計劃使我們的 LED 業務成為一項非常有利可圖的業務,我們尋求的主要差異化將是通過技術。
And that is why the very first thing that we are doing is to start LED development ourselves -- technology development.
這就是為什麼我們要做的第一件事就是自己開始 LED 開發——技術開發。
And we plan to get into that business with innovations -- innovations in technology.
我們計劃通過創新——技術創新進入該行業。
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
So it is most focusing on the technology development rather than the chip production?
所以它最注重技術開發而不是芯片生產?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
You said technology versus chip production?
你說技術與芯片生產?
No.
不。
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, chip production is not what we are seeking.
好吧,芯片生產不是我們想要的。
That is not our strategy, yes.
這不是我們的策略,是的。
JJ Park - Analyst
JJ Park - Analyst
Okay, got it.
好,知道了。
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with FBR.
您的下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Thanks for taking my question -- a couple of follow-ups.
感謝您提出我的問題 - 幾個跟進。
If I just take a look at your capacity addition in the Q3 and Q4, it suggests to me that the revenues are going to follow the capacity addition, given the fact that you are already at 100% utilization rate.
如果我只看一下你們在第三季度和第四季度的產能增加,我認為收入將隨著產能增加而增加,因為你們的利用率已經達到 100%。
Is that how we should think about the yearend guidance?
我們應該如何看待年終指導?
Mr.
先生。
Chang, early on, was talking about 36% foundry revenue growth and TSMC exceeding that, so I am just -- I am looking at utilization rate and it seems to me that second half revenues are going to just follow the capacity increases.
Chang 早些時候談到了 36% 的代工收入增長,而台積電則超過了這個數字,所以我只是 - 我正在關注利用率,在我看來,下半年的收入將隨著產能的增加而增長。
Is that the right way of thinking?
這是正確的思維方式嗎?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Oh, I didn't say that TSMC would exceed.
哦,我沒說台積電會超過。
It did not say it.
它沒有說。
But, of course, we are not unambitious people and we certainly want to perform better than the industry as a whole.
但是,當然,我們不是沒有野心的人,我們當然希望表現得比整個行業更好。
Now, basically, I think that you are correct, yes.
現在,基本上,我認為你是對的,是的。
We are currently limited by capacity and, therefore, revenue growth will have to follow capacity growth.
我們目前受到產能的限制,因此,收入增長必須跟隨產能增長。
So, basically, I think, that is a right -- a correct statement.
所以,基本上,我認為,這是一個正確的——一個正確的陳述。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Sure.
當然。
And just one follow-up regarding your prepared remarks, I understand that not all the data is available to assess the inventory situation following the Q1 report.
僅對您準備好的評論進行一次跟進,我了解並非所有數據都可用於評估第一季度報告後的庫存狀況。
But based on your own experience over the past several decades and what you have seen so far out of the reports for Q1, where do you think we are in the cycle?
但根據您過去幾十年的經驗以及迄今為止從第一季度報告中看到的情況,您認為我們處於週期的哪個位置?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, past experience really tells me very little.
好吧,過去的經驗真的告訴我很少。
Past experience just tells you that the future is always unpredictable.
過去的經驗只是告訴你,未來總是不可預測的。
I really can't comment further than that, yes.
我真的不能再評論了,是的。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
But did -- have you seen anything so far in the Q1 report by your customers that would concern you as it relates to too much inventory?
但是,到目前為止,您有沒有在客戶的第一季度報告中看到任何與庫存過多有關的內容?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, the limited -- the very limited sample that we have seen, as I said, it is about 15% to 20% of what we will get one or two months from now.
嗯,有限的——正如我所說,我們看到的樣本非常有限,大約是我們從現在開始一兩個月得到的樣本的 15% 到 20%。
One or two months from now we will get the complete data about the end of first quarter, as we have already gotten the complete data on the fourth quarter.
一兩個月後,我們將獲得第一季度末的完整數據,因為我們已經獲得了第四季度的完整數據。
So deliver to assemble we have -- it is really premature to draw any conclusions.
因此,我們已經交付組裝 - 現在得出任何結論還為時過早。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of [Dan Malcoln] with Moore Capital.
您的下一個問題來自摩爾資本的 [Dan Malcoln]。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
I was just wondering in the guidance for second quarter, can you just talk about what some of the puts and takes are there in terms of strengths driving the sequential growth, and any weakness maybe, if there is any?
我只是想知道在第二季度的指導中,您能否談談在推動連續增長的優勢方面存在哪些看跌期權,以及任何弱點(如果有的話)?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Second quarter we expect that communication, consumer, industrial will all go up.
第二季度我們預計通信、消費、工業都將上漲。
On the communication front, within cellular we believe, our major segment, will increase.
在通信方面,我們相信在蜂窩內,我們的主要部分將會增加。
Within networking, growth will be driven by wireless LANs and network processors.
在網絡領域,增長將由無線局域網和網絡處理器推動。
On the consumer part, growth will be drive by DTV and video game players, other -- not other segments.
在消費者方面,增長將由數字電視和視頻遊戲玩家推動,而不是其他細分市場。
On the industrial part, all segments will increase except PLD.
在工業部分,除PLD外,所有細分市場都將增加。
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
So, PLD will be not up in industrial in the second quarter?
那麼,PLD二季度會不會產業化?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
That is what we are seeing now.
這就是我們現在所看到的。
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then, in the first quarter, the 9% growth in consumer, what was driving that?
然後,在第一季度,消費者增長了 9%,是什麼推動了這一點?
Was that primarily Driver IC?
那主要是驅動IC嗎?
Is that -- and is that not typical to see that kind of consumer strength in the first quarter for your guys?
對你們來說,在第一季度看到這種消費者實力是不是很典型?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Okay, let's see.
好吧,讓我們看看。
You are asking about first quarter in consumer?
你問的是消費者第一季度的情況?
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Actually, in the first quarter all major segments increased within consumer with the only exception of setup boxes.
實際上,在第一季度,除了安裝盒之外,所有主要細分市場都在消費者中有所增長。
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Okay, so everything drove that 9% growth.
好的,所以一切都推動了 9% 的增長。
And is that typical, that growth?
那是典型的,那種增長嗎?
Do you think that was -- I wouldn't except consumer to be up, but maybe I am thinking about that wrong, seasonally, in the first quarter.
你認為那是 - 我不會除了消費者會上漲,但也許我在第一季度季節性地考慮錯了。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Actually, the first quarter is better than seasonality.
實際上,第一季度比季節性要好。
Usually consumer will go down first quarter.
通常消費者會在第一季度下降。
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Dan Malcoln - Analyst
Okay, so it was better than normal seasonal.
好的,所以它比正常的季節性要好。
Okay, thanks so much.
好的,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike McConnell with Pacific Crest Securities.
您的下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Mike McConnell。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr.
博士。
Chang, I was just curious with the comments that second half of the year will be softer than the first half of the year.
Chang,我只是好奇下半年會比上半年疲軟的評論。
What are the reasons for that?
原因是什麼?
Is it just purely math?
它只是純粹的數學嗎?
I was just curious as to that comment.
我只是好奇那個評論。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Are you referring to the comments that I made this afternoon?
你指的是我今天下午發表的評論嗎?
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, they were misunderstood.
好吧,他們被誤解了。
I did not say that the second half would be softer than the first half.
我沒有說下半場會比上半場軟。
I merely said that the second half variations in the semiconductor market -- remember, I am talking about the semi -- the total, world semiconductor market, now.
我只是說半導體市場的下半年變化 - 記住,我說的是半 - 現在是整個世界半導體市場。
The second half -- in the second half they will be -- they will not follow the usual, the average seasonal variations.
下半場——他們將在下半場——他們不會遵循通常的、平均的季節性變化。
In other words, seasonally, the third quarter is usually the strongest quarter.
換句話說,從季節性來看,第三季度通常是最強的季度。
Well, actually, the -- no, I take that back too.
嗯,實際上, - 不,我也收回了這一點。
It is not the strongest quarter.
這不是最強勁的季度。
It is very strong.
它非常強大。
Seasonally, the third quarter for the semiconductor market is a lot stronger than the second quarter by about seven to ten percentage points, 7% to 10% growth from the second quarter.
季節性地,第三季度的半導體市場比第二季度要強得多,大約是 7 到 10 個百分點,比第二季度增長 7% 到 10%。
But this year the third quarter of the semiconductor market may not grow as strongly as 7% to 10%.
但今年第三季度半導體市場的增長可能不會像 7% 到 10% 那樣強勁。
And, by the same token, seasonally, the fourth quarter is about 3% stronger than the third quarter.
同樣,從季節性來看,第四季度比第三季度增長了約 3%。
Again, I am talking about the semiconductor market.
再次,我在談論半導體市場。
And this year, the fourth quarter may not grow 3%.
而今年第四季度可能不會增長3%。
So, that is all I said.
所以,這就是我所說的。
But since the first quarter is already so strong and even if, -- again, I am talking about the semiconductor market.
但由於第一季度已經如此強勁,即使——再次,我在談論半導體市場。
The first quarter is already so strong.
第一季度已經如此強勁。
Now, if the second quarter is a bit weaker than seasonal, and the third quarter and fourth quarter are all a bit weaker than seasonal, they will still be -- the second half, will still be bigger than the first half.
現在,如果第二季度比季節性弱一點,第三季度和第四季度都比季節性弱一點,它們仍然會——下半年,仍然會大於上半年。
So, that is all I said.
所以,這就是我所說的。
I really think all this I didn't have to say -- I shouldn't have said, really, because it was misunderstood, not just by you, but some other people also.
我真的認為這一切我都不必說——我不應該說,真的,因為它被誤解了,不僅是你,還有其他一些人。
So, when I realized that it was already too late.
所以,當我意識到已經為時已晚。
I should have unsaid it.
我應該不說的。
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Well, thank you for the clarification.
嗯,謝謝你的澄清。
And kind of what are your thoughts then for next year too with relationship to the strength we are seeing this year?
那麼你對明年的看法與我們今年看到的實力的關係是什麼?
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
We think that next year will be a good year and I forecasted a quarter ago that next year semiconductor market will see a growth of 7% over this year.
我們認為明年將是一個好年頭,我在一個季度前預測明年半導體市場將比今年增長 7%。
And this year is a tremendous year, 32% we are forecasting now.
今年是豐收的一年,我們現在預測 32%。
And next year, we are forecasting 7% over this year.
明年,我們預計今年將增長 7%。
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Mike McConnell - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Operator, in the interest of time we will just allow two more callers.
接線員,為了節省時間,我們將只允許另外兩個呼叫者。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Heyler with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
您的下一個問題來自美國銀行/美林證券的 Dan Heyler。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Well, thanks.
非常感謝。
I was just going to ask you guys for an update on the 40nm margins.
我只是想問你們關於 40nm 邊距的更新。
Your previous expectation was that that would be back to the corporate average by the fourth quarter, and whether or not we are still on track for that or doing better than that.
您之前的預期是,到第四季度,這將回到公司平均水平,以及我們是否仍處於正軌或做得更好。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Actually, Dan, there were people asking this afternoon and my answer to that, yes, we believe the fourth quarter 40nm margin will be close to the [headquarter] level.
實際上,丹,今天下午有人問,我的回答是,是的,我們相信第四季度 40nm 利潤率將接近 [總部] 水平。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, the corporate average actually has gone up a little, yes, so it is a kind of a moving target and so, yes.
嗯,公司平均水平實際上已經上升了一點,是的,所以它是一個移動目標,所以,是的。
But the answer to your question that -- this is Dr.
但你的問題的答案是——這是博士。
Chang, is that awhile ago that the yields of the 40nm are as good as, or even better than the yields of 65nm or 90nm at the same stage of maturity.
Chang,是不是前段時間,40nm 的良率與同成熟階段的 65nm 或 90nm 的良率不相上下,甚至更好。
And so, as far as I see, really, the 40nm problems which were pretty high on our priority list last July - I believe it was last July when I talked to you, they have -- they started to diminish as I thought they would.
所以,就我所見,真的,去年 7 月我們優先考慮的 40nm 問題——我相信去年 7 月我和你交談時,它們已經——它們開始減少,正如我認為的那樣.
I remember that in July of last year I even got Mark Liu to speak to you.
我記得去年七月我什至讓 Mark Liu 和你說話。
And at that time, he was forecasting a gradual improvement of the 40nm [U] situation.
而當時,他正在預測 40nm [U] 的情況會逐漸好轉。
And, sure enough, he was -- his results were as good as his words.
而且,果然,他是——他的結果和他說的一樣好。
And they started to improve perhaps even more rapidly than he promised.
他們開始改善,也許比他承諾的還要快。
And so, at this point, I would say that they are not there anymore.
所以,在這一點上,我會說他們不再存在了。
Now, but your question was on gross margin, and I did say that by the end of this year it would be at the corporate average.
現在,但你的問題是毛利率,我確實說過到今年年底它將達到公司平均水平。
Now, keep in mind that we expect the 40nm to be fully loaded all the way.
現在,請記住,我們預計 40nm 將一直滿載。
Now, when I said that the 40nm gross margin would be like the corporate average, I was sure that 40nm would be fully loaded at the end of this year, but I wasn't sure that the whole corporation would be fully loaded.
現在,當我說 40nm 毛利率會像企業平均水平時,我確定 40nm 會在今年年底滿載,但我不確定整個公司是否會滿載。
Now, I am more sure the full -- the whole corporation will be fully loaded at the end of fourth quarter, and therefore, the target has moved up a little bit.
現在,我更加確定——整個公司將在第四季度末滿負荷運轉,因此,目標有所提高。
Is this Dan that is asking the question?
是這個丹在問這個問題嗎?
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Yes, hi.
是的,你好。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Do you follow what I said?
你遵守我說的嗎?
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Absolutely, that is clear.
絕對的,這很清楚。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
And then, a quick follow-up with -- was we haven't heard much on the embedded CPU initiative which has been multifaceted, has been some working with Intel in the past in this area and some work on your own and AMD and others.
然後,快速跟進——我們對嵌入式 CPU 計劃的了解不多.
But I was just, specifically, was wondering when we would start to see present in the PC-related space with either embedded or MIB market.
但我只是特別想知道我們何時會開始看到 PC 相關領域的嵌入式或 MIB 市場。
Because it has been a growth opportunity for you a number of years that you have been targeting.
因為多年來,這對您來說一直是一個增長機會。
I am wondering if we are getting to a point where we may start to see greater penetration into the PC space for you i.e.
我想知道我們是否已經到了可以開始為您看到更大程度地滲透到 PC 領域的地步,即
the embedded processor space.
嵌入式處理器空間。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dan, this is Shang-Yi.
丹,這是尚義。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Hey.
嘿。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
We -- I assume you talk about, for example, like embedded ARM core into some smartphone or smartbook application, am I right?
我們——我假設您談論的是,例如,將 ARM 內核嵌入到某些智能手機或智能本應用程序中,對嗎?
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Well, we have seen already.
好吧,我們已經看到了。
I am wondering in the PC space, i.e.
我想知道PC領域,即
ARM-based PCs, what extent you are seeing success there in the processor space?
基於 ARM 的 PC,您在處理器領域看到了多大程度的成功?
Snapdragon is one the devices, for instance, out of Qualcomm.
例如,Snapdragon 是高通公司的設備之一。
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
Dr. Shang-Yi Chiang - SVP and Head of R&D
We do expect that will be a growing market and, indeed, our 28HPM was designed to target that market, and that was customer-driven.
我們確實預計這將是一個不斷增長的市場,事實上,我們的 28HPM 旨在針對該市場,並且以客戶為導向。
So we designed that 28HPM by specific customers targeted for that market.
因此,我們針對該市場的特定客戶設計了 28HPM。
And, at this stage, what we actually saw was that there were quite a few of our customers, probably around at least four or five of them who were very interested in this technology.
而且,在這個階段,我們實際看到的是,我們有不少客戶,可能至少有四五個對這項技術非常感興趣。
And we haven't been able to see the forecast volume at this moment.
而且我們目前無法看到預測量。
And I personally think that this emerging market, how fast it will pick up, is hard to us to predict.
而且我個人認為,這個新興市場會以多快的速度回升,我們很難預測。
Dan Heyler - Analyst
Dan Heyler - Analyst
That's great.
那太棒了。
Thank you, everyone.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Pranab Sumar with Daiwa Securities.
您的下一個問題來自大和證券的 Pranab Sumar。
Please, proceed.
請繼續。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Thank you for taking my question.
謝謝你接受我的問題。
Lora, my sense on the first quarter, non-wafer revenue there was a drop to about 10% of total revenue on the Q1?
Lora,我對第一季度的感覺,第一季度的非晶圓收入下降到總收入的 10% 左右?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
No, really, non-wafer revenue account for like 10% to 12% of our total revenue.
不,實際上,非晶圓收入占我們總收入的 10% 到 12%。
That first quarter is in that level.
第一季度處於那個水平。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
In that level.
在那個級別。
That means the ASP drop was quite significant on the first quarter -- blended ASP?
這意味著第一季度的平均售價下降非常顯著——混合平均售價?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Well, the first quarter usually we have annual pricing negotiations with the customers.
嗯,第一季度通常我們與客戶進行年度定價談判。
It is not something new for us.
這對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。
Every first quarter we will see a little bit more price decline versus other quarters.
與其他季度相比,每個第一季度我們都會看到更多的價格下跌。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
My next question is on the dividend payout ratio.
我的下一個問題是股息支付率。
If your are capital intensity declines a bit in 2011, would you consider paying more than 100% dividend payouts for next year?
如果您的資本密集度在 2011 年有所下降,您會考慮在明年支付 100% 以上的股息嗎?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Pranab, I would like to repeat our dividend policy.
Pranab,我想重複一下我們的股息政策。
We are very serious about our stable dividend payout and we have been paying NT$3 for the four years.
我們非常重視穩定的股息派發,四年來一直支付新台幣3元。
And if the long-term growth and profitability goes up, we will increase the dividend, but I cannot give you a promise, not any single year we will payout more than 100%.
如果長期增長和盈利能力上升,我們會增加股息,但我不能給你一個承諾,沒有一年我們會支付超過100%。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Just now, Mr.
剛才,先生。
Chang you have said like your capacity to be fully loaded until 4Q, that implies like your revenue growth over the next few quarters will be quite similar to what is your capacity growth.
Chang 你說過你的產能要滿載到第四季度,這意味著你未來幾個季度的收入增長將與你的產能增長非常相似。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Say it again.
再說一遍。
Our revenue growth will be what?
我們的收入增長會是什麼?
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Would be quite similar to your capacity growth because you said that your Fab 12 will be almost fully loaded for the whole this year.
將與您的產能增長非常相似,因為您說您的 Fab 12 將在今年全年幾乎滿負荷運行。
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Dr. Morris Chang - Chairman and CEO
Well, as a first principle -- as I said earlier, as a first principle that is correct, but now you have to look at the details of capacity growth and we, certainly -- we are growing the advanced capacities faster than the mature capacities.
嗯,作為第一原則——正如我之前所說,作為第一原則是正確的,但現在你必須看看產能增長的細節,我們當然——我們正在以比成熟產能更快的速度增長先進產能.
And the advanced wafers carry a higher price and all that sort of things, yes.
是的,先進的晶圓價格更高,諸如此類。
But as a principle -- as a first principle, what you said is correct, and what I said earlier was correct also, as a first principle, yes.
但是作為一個原則——作為第一原則,你說的是正確的,我之前說的也是正確的,作為第一原則,是的。
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Pranab Sumar - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you for clarification.
謝謝你的澄清。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of IR
This concludes our Q&A session.
我們的問答環節到此結束。
Thank you for joining us this morning.
感謝您今天早上加入我們。
We hope you will join us again next quarter.
我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。
Goodbye.
再見。
Operator
Operator
Before we conclude TSMC's first quarter 2010 results webcast conference call today, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
在我們今天結束台積電 2010 年第一季度業績網絡直播電話會議之前,請注意,電話會議的重播只能通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 訪問。
Thank you all.
謝謝你們。