台積電 ADR (TSM) 2009 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth quarter '09 results webcast conference call.

歡迎來到台積電 09 年第四季度業績網絡直播電話會議。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com, and only in audio mode.

本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播，並且僅以音頻模式進行。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr.

我現在想把會議交給博士。

Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations.

台積電投資者關係負責人伊麗莎白·孫。

Thank you, Latree.

謝謝你，拉特里。

Good morning and good evening everyone.

大家早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to TSMC's fourth quarter 2009 conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2009 年第四季度電話會議。

Joining us on the call are Dr.

加入我們的電話是博士。

Morris Chang, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and, Ms.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀女士和女士。

Lora Ho, our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Lora Ho，我們的副總裁兼首席財務官。

The format of today's conference call will be as follows.

今天電話會議的形式如下。

First, Lora will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter and give you our guidance for the first quarter of 2010.

首先，Lora 將總結我們在第四季度的運營情況，並為您提供 2010 年第一季度的指導。

Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr.

然後是台積電董事長，博士。

Chang, will provide his general remarks on the business outlook and a couple of key messages.

Chang 將就業務前景和一些關鍵信息發表一般性評論。

Then we will open the floor to questions.

然後我們將開始提問。

For those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

I would like to remind all listeners that following discussions may contain forward-looking statements that subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

我想提醒所有聽眾，以下討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 17, 2009, and such other documents as TSMC may file with, or submit to, the SEC from time to time.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，請參閱台積電於 2009 年 4 月 17 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交或提交給 SEC。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Lora.

現在我想把電話轉給 Lora。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good morning and good evening.

早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to our fourth quarter 2009 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加我們的 2009 年第四季度財報電話會議。

First, I will go over the highlights of our fourth quarter, followed by a recap of 2009.

首先，我將回顧我們第四季度的亮點，然後是對 2009 年的回顧。

Then I will give you the outlook for the first quarter in 2010.

那麼我給大家2010年第一季度的展望。

Please refer to the quarterly financial summary slides on our website.

請參閱我們網站上的季度財務摘要幻燈片。

All dollar figures are in TWD dollars unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，否則所有美元數字均以新台幣為單位。

In the fourth quarter our top line continued to grow, mainly due to the strong demand for computer-related applications.

在第四季度，我們的收入繼續增長，主要是由於對計算機相關應用程序的強勁需求。

With a higher utilization rate and an enhanced cost structure our profits and the profit margins again improved sequentially in the quarter.

隨著利用率的提高和成本結構的改善，我們的利潤和利潤率在本季度再次環比改善。

Net sales of TWD92.1b were up 2.4% compared with the third quarter and up 42.6% year over year.

TWD92.1b 的淨銷售額較第三季度增長 2.4%，同比增長 42.6%。

Wafer shipments were TWD2.43m eight-inch equivalent Wafer, slightly down 0.6% sequentially and up 58.6% compared with the same period a year ago.

晶圓出貨量為 243 萬新台幣，相當於 8 英寸晶圓，環比微跌 0.6%，同比增長 58.6%。

Gross margin was 48.5%, 0.8 percentage point increase from the prior quarter and a 17.2 percentage points' increase year over year.

毛利率為48.5%，環比增長0.8個百分點，同比增長17.2個百分點。

Operating margin of 36.5% was up 0.9 percentage points sequentially and up 17.9 percentage points compared with fourth quarter '08.

營業利潤率為 36.5%，環比上升 0.9 個百分點，與 08 年第四季度相比上升 17.9 個百分點。

EPS for the fourth quarter '09 reached TWD1.26 and ROE stayed flat at 27.3% compared with the prior quarter.

09 年第四季度每股收益達到 TWD1.26，ROE 與上一季度相比持平於 27.3%。

Let's now take a look at the income statement.

現在讓我們看一下損益表。

Our gross profit margin was 48.5%, representing a 0.8 percentage point increase from the last quarter, as a result of increased utilization rate and continued cost improvement, partially offset by an unfavorable exchange rate.

我們的毛利率為 48.5%，較上一季度上升 0.8 個百分點，原因是利用率提高和成本持續改善，部分被不利的匯率所抵消。

Operating expense increased TWD180m from the prior quarter, reflecting increased research activities in our 28nm and 22nm technologies.

營業費用較上一季度增加 1.8 億新台幣，反映我們 28 納米和 22 納米技術的研究活動增加。

Non-operating income was up TWD900m sequentially primarily due to the inflow of litigation compensation.

營業外收入環比增加 9 億新台幣，主要是由於訴訟賠償的流入。

Net investment gain was TWD300m, down TWD100m from the prior quarter, reflecting declined profit in certain invested companies.

淨投資收益為 3 億新台幣，比上一季度減少 1 億新台幣，反映某些被投資公司的利潤下降。

Net margin was 35.5%, up 1.5 percentage points sequentially and up 16.2 percentage points year over year.

淨利潤率為35.5%，環比上升1.5個百分點，同比上升16.2個百分點。

On an application basis the sequential growth of our fourth quarter revenue is mostly driven by the strength in the Computer segment, which grew 22% sequentially.

在應用基礎上，我們第四季度收入的環比增長主要是由計算機部門的強勁推動的，該部門環比增長 22%。

Communication Applications declined 8% from the prior quarter after two strong quarters of growth, while Consumer decreased 15% quarter over quarter, in line with the normal seasonality.

在經歷了兩個強勁的季度增長之後，通信應用比上一季度下降了 8%，而消費類則比上一季度下降了 15%，與正常的季節性一致。

Overall, revenue from Communications, Computer and Consumer Applications (sic) accounted for 39%, 33% and 13% of our Wafer sales in fourth quarter '09 respectively.

總體而言，通信、計算機和消費應用 (sic) 的收入分別佔 09 年第四季度晶圓銷售額的 39%、33% 和 13%。

On page seven, by technology, total Wafer sales from 0.13 microns and below accounted for 70% of our total Wafer sales, representing a three percentage point increase from last quarter.

在第七頁，按技術劃分，0.13 微米及以下的晶圓總銷售額占我們晶圓總銷售額的 70%，比上一季度增加了三個百分點。

For 40nm revenue were more than doubled compared with the third quarter, accounting for 9% of our total Wafer sales, from 4% in the prior quarter.

與第三季度相比，40nm 的收入增長了一倍以上，占我們晶圓總銷售額的 9%，高於上一季度的 4%。

For 65nm, revenue contribution was 30%, meanwhile, 90nm and 0.13nm represented 16% and 15% of our total Wafer sales respectively.

對於 65nm，收入貢獻為 30%，同時，90nm 和 0.13nm 分別占我們晶圓總銷售額的 16% 和 15%。

Now let's move on to the balance sheet and cash flow statement.

現在讓我們繼續討論資產負債表和現金流量表。

We ended the fourth quarter with TWD196b in cash and short-term investments, compared with TWD180b in the prior quarter, primarily due to the free cash flow generated in the quarter.

我們在第四季度末的現金和短期投資為 196 新台幣，而上一季度為 180 新台幣，主要是由於該季度產生的自由現金流。

On the other hand, total current liabilities increased TWD24b as a result of increased accounts payable to suppliers and accrual for employee profit sharing during the quarter.

另一方面，流動負債總額增加了TWD24b，原因是本季度應付供應商的應付賬款和應計員工利潤分享增加。

Accounts receivable days and inventory turnover days were 36 days and 42 days respectively.

應收賬款天數和存貨周轉天數分別為36天和42天。

Net fixed asset turnover was 1.4 times.

固定資產淨周轉率為1.4倍。

Cash flow generated by operating activities reached TWD62b, with an increase of TWD15b from the third quarter due to higher net income, the advance of cash payments of employee profit sharing and a decrease in net working capital.

經營活動產生的現金流量達到TWD62b，較第三季度增加TWD15b，原因是淨利潤增加、員工分紅預付現金以及淨營運資金減少。

In investment activities capital expenditure was TWD42.7b.

投資活動的資本支出為TWD42.7b。

Meanwhile, net purchase of short-term marketable securities and others were roughly TWD5b.

同時，短期有價證券等的淨購買量約為TWD5b。

In sum, the ending cash balance was TWD171b, up TWD14b sequentially.

總而言之，期末現金餘額為TWD171b，環比增加TWD14b。

Free cash flow was TWD19.3b, up by TWD4.7b compared with the last quarter.

自由現金流為TWD19.3b，與上一季度相比增加TWD4.7b。

Let's turn to CapEx in capital expenditures.

讓我們轉向資本支出中的資本支出。

Total installed capacity was about 2.53m eight-inch equivalent Wafers in the fourth quarter, representing a 3.6% increase from the prior quarter.

第四季度總裝機容量約為 253 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，比上一季度增長 3.6%。

In the first quarter of 2010 we expect overall capacity to increase by 1%.

在 2010 年第一季度，我們預計整體產能將增加 1%。

12-inch capacity will expand by around 8% quarter over quarter, while eight-inch capacity will be lowered due to an annual maintenance and the capacity migration to higher nodes.

12 英寸容量將環比增長約 8%，而 8 英寸容量將因年度維護和向更高節點的容量遷移而降低。

For 2009 overall capacity was 9.95m eight-inch equivalent Wafers, up 6% from 2008.

2009 年總產能為 995 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，比 2008 年增長 6%。

12-inch capacity increased by 11% year over year, accounting for 42% of total capacity.

12英寸產能同比增長11%，佔總產能的42%。

In terms of capital expenditure we spent $1.3b during the quarter.

在資本支出方面，我們在本季度花費了 1.3b 美元。

Capital expenditure for 2009 was $2.67b in aggregate, compared with $1.89b spent in 2008.

2009 年的資本支出總計為 $2.67b，而 2008 年的支出為 $1.89b。

Now let me give you a short recap of 2009.

現在讓我簡要回顧一下 2009 年。

In a rapidly changing year as 2009 TSMC was able to maintain profitable at the bottom of the downturn, and then was able to quickly ramp up capacity with demand fast recovered.

在瞬息萬變的 2009 年，台積電能夠在低迷時期保持盈利，然後隨著需求的快速恢復而迅速提升產能。

From the financial performance perspective, although 2009 revenues dropped 11% compared with 2008, the growth and operating profit margins were kept at similar level compared with 2008.

從財務表現來看，雖然 2009 年的收入與 2008 年相比下降了 11%，但與 2008 年相比，增長和營業利潤率保持在相似的水平。

As a result, we should be able to maintain the dividend per share that we had been paying our shareholders in the past few years.

因此，我們應該能夠維持過去幾年一直支付給股東的每股股息。

We ended the year with a sound performance in our balance sheet and cash flow.

我們在資產負債表和現金流方面表現良好。

With a strong balance sheet and an [end-core] flow cash position, I believe TSMC is well positioned to invest for the future.

憑藉強勁的資產負債表和 [終端核心] 流動現金狀況，我相信台積電已做好投資未來的準備。

Now let me turn to the outlook for the first quarter of 2010.

現在讓我談談對 2010 年第一季度的展望。

Based on our current business expectations and a forecast exchange rate of TWD31.6 we expect our consolidated revenue in the first quarter to come in between TWD89b and TWD91b.

根據我們目前的業務預期和 TWD31.6 的預測匯率，我們預計第一季度的綜合收入將介於 TWD89b 和 TWD91b 之間。

In terms of margins we expect our first quarter gross margin to be between 46.5% and 48.5%, operating margin to be between 35% and 37%.

在利潤率方面，我們預計我們第一季度的毛利率在 46.5% 到 48.5% 之間，營業利潤率在 35% 到 37% 之間。

Lastly, due to a strong demand outlook for our advanced technologies 2010 capital expenditure will be around $4.8b.

最後，由於我們先進技術的強勁需求前景，2010 年資本支出將約為 $4.8b。

This concludes my remarks today.

我今天的發言到此結束。

Now let me turn the call over to Dr.

現在讓我把電話轉給博士。

Morris Chang, our Chairman and CEO, for his remarks.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官張忠謀先生致辭。

Hi, this is Morris Chang.

你好，我是張慕容。

Good morning and good evening.

早上好，晚上好。

We had a good quarter and a year much better than imagined a year ago.

我們有一個很好的季度和一年比一年前想像的要好得多。

Furthermore, TSMC outlook for 2010 is very good.

此外，台積電 2010 年的前景非常好。

For the end market we forecast PCs to grow by 14% this year, we forecast handsets to grow by 12% this year and we forecast digital consumer electronics to grow by 7% this year.

對於終端市場，我們預計今年 PC 將增長 14%，我們預計今年手機將增長 12%，我們預計今年數字消費電子產品將增長 7%。

Worldwide Semiconductor market last year contracted by about 9%.

去年全球半導體市場收縮了約 9%。

This year we expect it to grow by about 18%, with large contribution from memory, which will grow more than 30%.

今年我們預計增長18%左右，其中內存貢獻較大，增長30%以上。

In the first quarter, however, the worldwide Semiconductor market will decline seasonally in low single digit.

然而，在第一季度，全球半導體市場將以低個位數的季節性下滑。

The first quarter declines that we are forecasting for the worldwide Semiconductor market is actually a little better than the historical seasonal average.

我們預測的全球半導體市場第一季度的下滑實際上略好於歷史季節性平均水平。

On TSMC's supply chain inventory, as you probably know, we keep track of all of our major customers' inventory, and at this point we have good data as of the end of third quarter.

在台積電的供應鏈庫存上，你可能知道，我們跟踪了我們所有主要客戶的庫存，目前我們有截至第三季度末的良好數據。

And that data showed us, by and large, our major customers' inventory have been declining in the first three quarters of last year.

該數據顯示，總的來說，我們主要客戶的庫存在去年前三個季度一直在下降。

We have now partial data available for their fourth quarter, and that partial data show us that the inventory -- their inventory has stabilized from the third quarter-end level, but it's still below historical seasonal level.

我們現在有他們第四季度的部分數據，這些部分數據向我們展示了庫存——他們的庫存已經從第三季度末的水平穩定下來，但仍低於歷史季節性水平。

Now let's address the world Foundry market.

現在讓我們談談世界鑄造市場。

We forecast that the world Foundry market will grow by 29% this year after having contracted 17% last year.

我們預測，繼去年收縮 17% 後，今年全球 Foundry 市場將增長 29%。

This really is not surprising, because if you combine the '09 contraction with the 2010 growth for the Semiconductor market and the Foundry market you find that the Semiconductor market contracted by 9% last year and will grow by 18% this year, for a two-year growth of 9%.

這真的不足為奇，因為如果你將 09 年的收縮與 2010 年半導體市場和代工市場的增長結合起來，你會發現半導體市場去年收縮了 9%，今年將增長 18%，持續兩年年增長 9%。

For the Foundry market it contracted by about 17% last year and we are forecasting it to grow by 29% this year.

Foundry 市場去年收縮了約 17%，我們預計今年將增長 29%。

If you combine the two, you have a net growth of 12% for the Foundry market.

如果將兩者結合起來，Foundry 市場的淨增長率為 12%。

So the net two-year growth of the Semiconductor market is 9% and the net two year growth of the Foundry market is 12%, which is well within what we normally see.

所以半導體市場的兩年淨增長為 9%，代工市場的兩年淨增長為 12%，這在我們通常看到的範圍內。

That is, the Foundry market grows somewhat faster than the Semiconductor market.

也就是說，代工市場的增長速度要快於半導體市場。

Now, in technology and manufacturing, on 28nm our development of the 28nm technology is progressing well.

現在，在技術和製造方面，在 28nm 上，我們對 28nm 技術的開發進展順利。

More than two dozen customers are working with us on wireless communication, computer and networking-related applications.

超過兩打客戶正在與我們合作開發無線通信、計算機和網絡相關應用。

Product [tape-outs] are expected around the middle of this year.

產品[流片]預計在今年年中左右。

On 45nm and 40nm yields continue to improve even at a faster pace in the last three months.

在過去三個月中，45nm 和 40nm 的良率繼續提高，甚至以更快的速度。

Gross margins, however, on the 40nm and 45nm is still not up to the corporate gross margin.

然而，40nm 和 45nm 的毛利率仍達不到公司的毛利率。

Of course, one has to remember that this is a pretty high target.

當然，必須記住這是一個相當高的目標。

Further improvements, however, are expected all through this year.

然而，預計今年會有進一步的改進。

I would, therefore, expect that before the end of this year the 45nm, 40nm gross margin will be up to the corporate gross margin level.

因此，我預計在今年年底之前，45nm、40nm 的毛利率將達到企業毛利率水平。

All other technologies, by that, I mean everything 65nm and above, are humming along very well on our manufacturing sites.

所有其他技術，我的意思是 65nm 及以上的所有技術，在我們的製造現場都非常好地運行。

Utilization is expected to be near to, or above, 100% across the board.

預計利用率將接近或高於 100%。

By that, I mean all technologies, even the 0.5 micron technology in our six-inch Fab, which is 15 years old.

我指的是所有技術，甚至是我們已有 15 年曆史的 6 英寸 Fab 中的 0.5 微米技術。

Utilization is expected to be near to, or above, 100% across the board in all technologies in all TSMC Fabs.

預計所有台積電晶圓廠的所有技術的全面利用率將接近或高於 100%。

We do have a shortage of capacity, particularly in advanced nodes.

我們確實有能力短缺，特別是在高級節點中。

On capital expenditures and the capacity, because of the high anticipated demand we accelerated our capital spending in the second half of last year and, as the CFO pointed out earlier, we are forecasting a capital expenditure of $4.8b this year.

在資本支出和產能方面，由於預期需求很高，我們在去年下半年加快了資本支出，正如首席財務官早些時候指出的那樣，我們預測今年的資本支出為 4.8 美元。

In the $4.8b the advanced nodes accounted for 94%.

在 $4.8b 中，高級節點佔 94%。

New businesses account for 2% and the [morse] technology, which is practically all in the mainstream technologies, accounts for 3%.

新業務佔2%，幾乎都是主流技術的[morse]技術佔3%。

Other items account for 1%.

其他項目佔1%。

Now I would like to address briefly the concerns that some have expressed on the risks of too much capacity, therefore, erosion of price, etc.

現在我想簡要談談一些人對產能過多的風險表示的擔憂，因此，價格侵蝕等。

On the 28nm and the 40nm, 45nm technologies we are pioneering the technologies.

在 28nm 和 40nm、45nm 技術上，我們正在開創這些技術。

We have pioneered the 40nm, 45nm Foundry technology and we expect to pioneer the 28nm Foundry technology.

我們已經開創了 40nm、45nm 代工技術，我們期望開創 28nm 代工技術。

We are by far the leader in those two technologies and we expect, at least in the next two years, to be by far the leading supplier that combines technology availability, yields and physical capacity.

到目前為止，我們在這兩種技術方面處於領先地位，並且我們預計，至少在未來兩年內，我們將成為迄今為止結合技術可用性、產量和物理能力的領先供應商。

Being such a supplier on 28nm and 45nm, 40nm I see minimal risk in over capacity in the next two years.

作為 28nm 和 45nm、40nm 的此類供應商，我認為未來兩年產能過剩的風險很小。

And, indeed, most of our capital spending this year, as well as most of the accelerated capital spending last year, was directed at those nodes.

事實上，我們今年的大部分資本支出，以及去年加速的大部分資本支出，都是針對這些節點的。

Now on the other nodes, 65nm and above, there is a slight risk of overcapacity, but we believe it is an exceptional one compared to the risk of not investing, which is a loss of market share and a loss of customer partners' confidence that we painstakingly built up.

現在在65nm及以上的其他節點上，存在輕微的產能過剩風險，但我們認為與不投資的風險相比，這是一個例外，這是市場份額的損失，也是客戶合作夥伴信心的喪失我們苦心經營起來。

I also want to point out that should overcapacity happen in 65nm and above we will win business on yields, delivery, reliability, service and customer partnership and, certainly, not just on price.

我還想指出，如果 65nm 及以上出現產能過剩，我們將在良率、交付、可靠性、服務和客戶合作夥伴關係方面贏得業務，當然，不僅僅是在價格方面。

That is a battle we have fought often and won often.

這是一場我們經常打的仗，也經常打勝仗。

In fact, many times in the past the periods when other people's, our competitors', utilization is low and our utilization is high exceed the time when everybody is full.

事實上，過去很多時候，其他人、我們的競爭對手的利用率低而我們的利用率高的時期超過了大家都吃飽的時候。

We are a veteran in fighting that kind of battle should it have to be fought again.

如果必須再次進行這種戰鬥，我們是打過這種戰鬥的老手。

In summary, I see almost no risk in capacity exceeding demand in 28nm, 40nm, 45nm, at least in the next two years.

綜上所述，我認為至少在未來兩年內，28nm、40nm、45nm 幾乎沒有產能超過需求的風險。

And on the other nodes, 65nm and above, if an overcapacity situation occurs I believe we know how to fight that kind of battles.

而在其他節點上，65nm及以上，如果出現產能過剩的情況，我相信我們知道如何打這種戰鬥。

We forecast the end market -- in summary, we forecast the end market to be strong this year.

我們預測終端市場——總而言之，我們預測今年終端市場將強勁。

We forecast the world Semiconductor market to grow by 18% and the Foundry market to grow by 29%.

我們預測世界半導體市場將增長 18%，晶圓代工市場將增長 29%。

Our technology progress is good, our manufacturing is good, we do have a capacity shortage situation but we are trying to catch up with that, and I believe that there is minimal risk in the most advanced nodes of overcapacity and, for the rest of the nodes, I believe we are going to win if the battle comes.

我們的技術進步很好，我們的製造很好，我們確實有產能短缺的情況，但我們正在努力趕上，我相信在最先進的節點產能過剩的風險很小，對於其餘的節點，我相信如果戰鬥來了，我們會贏的。

These are the remarks that I have prepared and I believe now we are open to questions.

這些是我準備的評論，我相信現在我們對問題持開放態度。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Operator, please open the floor to questions.

接線員，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with FBR.

我們的第一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Dr Chang, going back to your comments about the leading-edge capacity at TSM, the industry leader, so, to that extent, how should we think about the ASP mix?

張博士，回到您對行業領導者 TSM 領先產能的評論，那麼，在這個程度上，我們應該如何看待 ASP 組合？

And as gross margin for 40nm improves where would you see the gross margin trending towards end of this year?

隨著 40nm 毛利率的提高，您認為今年年底的毛利率會趨向何方？

And how would it compare to the prior peaks?

它與之前的峰值相比如何？

And I have a follow-up question.

我有一個後續問題。

(Technical difficulty), I'm sorry.

（技術難度），對不起。

How would the total overall --?

總體整體怎麼樣——？

The total ASP trend, we do not pay too much attention to the corporate ASP trend, simply because we have so many technologies available and then the mix of these technologies is --- will -- they will influence the corporate average price very greatly.

總的ASP趨勢，我們不太關注企業ASP的趨勢，只是因為我們有這麼多技術可用，然後這些技術的組合是--會--它們對企業平均價格的影響非常大。

Now, we do monitor the ASP in each node very carefully.

現在，我們確實非常仔細地監控每個節點中的 ASP。

And, now, another thing that I want to point out is that we make approximately the same gross margin in almost every node.

而且，現在，我要指出的另一件事是，我們幾乎在每個節點上都獲得了大致相同的毛利率。

So that is why we control the average price, we monitor the average price in each node very carefully and don't pay that much attention to the corporate average price.

所以這就是我們控制平均價格的原因，我們非常仔細地監控每個節點的平均價格，而不是太關注企業平均價格。

And we make about the same gross margin in every node.

我們在每個節點上的毛利率都差不多。

So, where you say that by year end where will our gross margin be, well, I think it's premature to predict right now.

所以，你說到年底我們的毛利率會在哪裡，嗯，我認為現在預測還為時過早。

I will say that our long-term objective, as far as profitability is concerned, is above 20% ROE and we are well above that right now.

我會說，就盈利能力而言，我們的長期目標是 20% 以上的 ROE，我們現在遠遠高於這個目標。

And I do see that by the end -- well, actually, not just by the end of the year, but for a long time, I think that we will not consider anything below 20% to be acceptable -- 20% ROE to be acceptable.

而且我確實看到到年底 - 嗯，實際上，不僅僅是在年底，而且在很長一段時間內，我認為我們不會認為低於 20% 的任何事情都是可以接受的 - 20% 的 ROE可以接受。

Sure.

當然。

And just one follow-up question regarding the CapEx $4.8b.

只有一個關於資本支出 $4.8b 的後續問題。

How shall we think about the spending pattern?

我們應該如何看待消費模式？

Would it be fair to say that this is going to be mostly front-end loaded; first half more CapEx spending than second half?

公平地說，這將主要是前端加載嗎？上半年資本支出比下半年多？

Yes, it will be front-end loaded because we are catching up in capacity.

是的，它將被前端加載，因為我們正在追趕容量。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And our next question comes from the line of Shailesh Jaitly with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村的 Shailesh Jaitly。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Dr.

博士。

Chang, just one clarification on your comments about possibly no overcapacities in Foundry industry for the next two years.

Chang，只是對您關於未來兩年鑄造行業可能不會出現產能過剩的評論進行澄清。

When you think about the industry and capacity growth, what kind of numbers are you imputing for the supply growth in 2010 and 2011?

當您考慮行業和產能增長時，您為 2010 年和 2011 年的供應增長估算了什麼樣的數字？

Well, I said that I don't see any -- I see very minimal risk in overcapacity situation on the 28 -- on the most advanced nodes, 28nm, 40nm and 45nm in the next two years.

好吧，我說我看不到任何——我認為未來兩年在最先進的節點 28nm、40nm 和 45nm 上產能過剩的風險非常小。

As far as what the industrial capacity am I imputing, well, actually I get a lot of the intelligence from just the analysts' reports and from the media publications etc.

至於我所估算的工業能力，實際上我從分析師的報告和媒體出版物等中獲得了很多情報。

Okay.

好的。

And because there have been so many capacity closures that were announced over the past 18 months, can we get some assessment from you as to what is the capacity contraction of the supply contraction that you are seeing from your IBM customers -- or the Foundry industry is seeing from the IBM customers?

而且由於在過去 18 個月中宣布瞭如此多的產能關閉，我們能否從您那裡獲得一些評估，以了解您從 IBM 客戶或鑄造行業看到的供應收縮的產能收縮是什麼？是從 IBM 客戶那裡看到的？

I think the contraction is almost entirely in the advanced nodes and it's a reasonably gradual one.

我認為收縮幾乎完全在高級節點中，而且是一個相當漸進的收縮。

And now that is of course why I think that the Foundry market will outgrow the Semiconductor market for quite a while.

現在這當然是我認為代工市場將在相當長一段時間內超過半導體市場的原因。

I think that I would impute our growth -- our fast growth on the advanced nodes, at least our forecast fast growth on the advanced nodes, 40nm, 45nm, and then 28nm.

我認為我會估算我們的增長——我們在先進節點上的快速增長，至少我們預測在先進節點上的快速增長，40nm，45nm，然後是 28nm。

I would attribute our fast growth to a very significant extent to the outsourcing that's happening by the IBMs.

我將我們的快速增長在很大程度上歸功於 IBM 正在發生的外包。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And, finally, if I could, in your -- this $4.8b CapEx estimate, is it primarily going to be spent for advanced technologies or is there some capacity expansion also for 65nm or 90nm nodes?

最後，如果我可以的話，在你的這個 4.8b 美元的資本支出估計中，它主要用於先進技術還是 65nm 或 90nm 節點也有一些容量擴展？

There is some for the --- most of the --- I said that 94% is for advanced technologies and we include everything below 0.13 in advanced technologies but, however, most of the spending is on 40nm, 45nm and 28nm.

有一些——大部分——我說 94% 用於先進技術，我們將所有低於 0.13 的東西都包括在先進技術中，但是，大部分支出都在 40nm、45nm 和 28nm 上。

But there is some that will be spent on 65nm and below.

但有一些將用於 65nm 及以下。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Pranab Sarmah with Daiwa.

我們的下一個問題來自大和的 Pranab Sarmah。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, thank you for taking my question.

是的，謝謝你提出我的問題。

Dr.

博士。

Chang, my question is could you give us a rough estimate what type of -- how many percentages of [shortage] on advanced capacity you're looking at, rather, how much percentage of your customer really has to push out their orders because you do not have enough capacity?

Chang，我的問題是，您能否給我們一個粗略的估計——您正在查看的高級產能 [短缺] 有多少百分比，而是，您的客戶中有多少百分比真的必須推出他們的訂單，因為您沒有足夠的容量？

And how you are managing those customers so that they don't go to the competitor?

以及您如何管理這些客戶，使他們不會去競爭對手那裡？

Well, right now I think it's very, very difficult, if not impossible, for them to go to another supplier because we are -- as I said, we are really by far the leading effective supplier that combines technological technology availability, yields and physical capacity.

好吧，現在我認為他們很難（如果不是不可能）去找另一家供應商，因為我們——正如我所說，我們確實是迄今為止領先的有效供應商，它結合了技術技術可用性、產量和物理容量。

Okay.

好的。

Could you give us rough idea, like what percentage of customers has to really push out the order, basically, or book-to-bill ratio on the advanced technology nodes?

你能不能給我們一個粗略的想法，比如有多少百分比的客戶必須真正推出訂單，基本上，或者在先進技術節點上的訂單出貨比？

We have a term -- internal term that's called non-supported demand and it is -- right now, on the advanced nodes, it is a huge number.

我們有一個術語——內部術語，稱為不支持的需求，它是——現在，在高級節點上，這是一個巨大的數字。

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Satya Kumar of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Satya Kumar。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi, can you hear me?

是的，嗨，你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I have a question on your capital intensity.

我有一個關於你的資本密集度的問題。

I think in the afternoon conference call, Dr.

我想在下午的電話會議上，博士。

Chang, you mentioned that 300mm capacity would grow 34% year over year.

Chang，您提到 300 毫米產能將同比增長 34%。

If I look at the incremental 300mm capacity that you're adding over the last several years, and I look at the CapEx that you're spending, in 2007 and 2008 you were spending roughly about TWD70m of CapEx for every 1,000 Wafer starts of 300mm capacity.

如果我看一下您在過去幾年中增加的 300 毫米產能，以及您正在花費的資本支出，在 2007 年和 2008 年，您在每 1,000 個 300 毫米晶圓開始時花費大約 7 億新台幣的資本支出容量。

In 2009 and 2010 I calculate the number to be closer to TWD120m.

在 2009 年和 2010 年，我計算的數字更接近 TWD120m。

I was wondering if you could add some commentary on why the CapEx required for every 1,000 Wafers starts of 300mm is going up, if at all.

我想知道您是否可以添加一些評論，說明為什麼每 1,000 個 300 毫米晶圓開始所需的資本支出會上升（如果有的話）。

And, secondly, if it is increasing, I was wondering if you'd be able to provide some color on any particular type of process technology, whether it's lithography or something else that's taking a bigger share, that's causing that trend.

其次，如果它正在增加，我想知道您是否能夠在任何特定類型的工藝技術上提供一些顏色，無論是光刻還是其他佔據更大份額的東西，都會導致這種趨勢。

I didn't get the second question.

我沒有得到第二個問題。

The second question is, is there any particular process technology within this, like lithography or etch or something else, that's causing that trend of increasing capital intensity?

第二個問題是，其中是否有任何特定的工藝技術，例如光刻或蝕刻或其他東西，導致資本密集度增加的趨勢？

Well, first, yes, the capital intensity has increased with each node.

嗯，首先，是的，資本密集度隨著每個節點的增加而增加。

The capital intensity of the 40nm, 45nm node is greater than the 65nm node.

40nm、45nm節點的資本強度大於65nm節點。

However, it's not so much greater as what your numbers indicated.

但是，它並不像您的數字所顯示的那麼大。

Because when you said that the capital intensity in '07 and '08 was such and such, remember in those years the advanced node was 65nm and those years were already the later years of ramp up of 65nm.

因為當你說 07 和 08 年的資本密集度是這樣那樣，記住那些年先進的節點是 65nm，那些年已經是 65nm 的後期階段。

The capital intensity declines as we go down the learning curve on each node and, therefore, yes, the capital intensity of 45nm, 40nm is greater than the 65nm but not by so much as you said, as your numbers indicated.

隨著我們在每個節點上的學習曲線下降，資本密集度下降，因此，是的，45nm、40nm 的資本密集度大於 65nm，但沒有你說的那麼多，正如你的數字所示。

And, by the same token, we expect that the initial capital intensity of 28nm will be quite high, but we expect the capital intensity to decline as the scale becomes larger.

同理，我們預計28nm初期資本密集度會相當高，但隨著規模變大，資本密集度會下降。

The first increment of capital in each node is always very, very expensive and then, by the time when we reach, for instance, 20,000 or 30,000 Wafers per month, and we add incremental capacity, that capital intensity becomes cheaper.

每個節點的第一次資本增量總是非常非常昂貴，然後，當我們達到每月 20,000 或 30,000 個晶圓時，我們增加增量容量，資本密集度變得更便宜。

And so we expect -- we have seen the same thing happening in the past and we expect it to be happening again.

所以我們期望 - 我們在過去看到同樣的事情發生，我們預計它會再次發生。

And, now, as far as the source of equipment, well, litho I think -- it's really pretty much across the board, but I have to say that litho I think is probably the main contributor.

而且，現在，就設備的來源而言，我認為是光刻機——它實際上幾乎是全面的，但我不得不說我認為光刻機可能是主要貢獻者。

Well, it's a greater contributor in increasing capital intensity than the rest of the tools.

嗯，與其他工具相比，它在增加資本密集度方面的貢獻更大。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

One quick follow up, if I may?

一個快速跟進，如果可以的話？

I was wondering if you'd be able to quantify what the spend might be in the first half versus second half in 2010 for CapEx.

我想知道您是否能夠量化 2010 年上半年與下半年的資本支出支出。

And, secondly, you mentioned that inventories are reasonable for your customers.

其次，您提到庫存對您的客戶來說是合理的。

You mentioned that overcapacity is not an issue and you sound optimistic on growth.

您提到產能過剩不是問題，您對增長持樂觀態度。

How should we think about your 2011 capital spending plans?

我們應該如何看待您 2011 年的資本支出計劃？

Is this level that we're seeing in 2010 unusually high, or is that the type of level that we should think of as we look into next year?

我們在 2010 年看到的這個水平是否異常高，還是我們在明年展望時應該考慮的那種水平？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I would let the CFO answer the front-end loading or back-loading question.

我會讓 CFO 回答前端加載或後端加載的問題。

On the 2011, I think that it's far too early to talk about that.

在 2011 年，我認為現在談論這個還為時過早。

I think that -- well, a lot of things where we're -- while we think we know approximately what's going to happen in the next two years, but there is a lot of variables there, so I think it's much too early to talk about 2011 capital spending now.

我認為 - 嗯，我們所處的很多事情 - 雖然我們認為我們大約知道未來兩年會發生什麼，但是那裡有很多變數，所以我認為現在還為時過早現在談談2011年的資本支出。

Okay, your first question regarding the front-end loaded, our current forecast for the NTD4.8b it will be roughly 60% in first half and around 40% in second half.

好的，關於前端加載的第一個問題，我們目前對 NTD4.8b 的預測在上半年約為 60%，下半年約為 40%。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of J.

我們的下一個問題來自 J.

J.

J。

Park with JPMorgan.

與摩根大通一起停車。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Good evening.

晚上好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Based on your guidance it seems to me that you have the very strong confidence for the 2010 outlook.

根據您的指導，在我看來，您對 2010 年的前景充滿信心。

Is it safe to assume that the current order visibility is much longer than what you experienced in the past?

假設當前的訂單可見性比您過去經歷的要長得多，是否安全？

Well, our orders are always just have about three or four months' visibility, but our forecasts -- the customers' forecasts to us -- and, remember, these are customers -- most of these customers we consider to be partners and they consider us to be partners too.

好吧，我們的訂單總是只有大約三四個月的可見度，但是我們的預測——客戶對我們的預測——而且，記住，這些是客戶——我們認為這些客戶中的大多數是合作夥伴，他們認為我們也成為合作夥伴。

Their forecast visibility is considerably longer than the three months.

他們的預測能見度比三個月要長得多。

Okay.

好的。

My second question, you mentioned that you expect the 13% capacity increase this year.

我的第二個問題，您提到您預計今年的產能將增加 13%。

Given some time lag between the CapEx increase and the actual capacity increase, it's going to be 2011 capacity growth could be higher than the level this year.

鑑於資本支出增加與實際產能增加之間存在一定的時間差，預計 2011 年的產能增長可能會高於今年的水平。

The CFO will answer this question.

CFO 將回答這個問題。

It's 13% for this year.

今年是13%。

Actually, for next year we don't know yet.

實際上，明年我們還不知道。

We have to see how the overall Semiconductor market is going to be in 2011.

我們必須看看整個半導體市場在 2011 年會如何。

Okay.

好的。

Now, Lora, also the final question, can you provide us some color on the depreciation expense, given [minimal] CapEx increase this year?

現在，Lora，也是最後一個問題，鑑於今年 [最小] 資本支出增加，您能否為我們提供一些關於折舊費用的顏色？

Okay, with the $4.8b CapEx this year we expect our depreciation will be increased by around 10% -- close to 10%.

好的，憑藉今年 4.8b 美元的資本支出，我們預計我們的折舊將增加 10% 左右——接近 10%。

And this --

和這個 -

Okay.

好的。

-- I have one comment to your early question.

- 我對你早期的問題有一個評論。

This year $4.8b, year-over-year total capacity increase by 13% but, for 12-inch only, it will increase by 34%.

今年 $4.8b，總容量同比增長 13%，但僅 12 英寸，它將增長 34%。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Steven Pelayo with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Last quarter's investor conference you spoke about your gross margins being governed because of the chamber matching issues in yields.

上個季度的投資者會議上，您談到了您的毛利率受到管理，因為收益率的商會匹配問題。

I'm wondering if you can give us an update on that.

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供最新信息。

You talked about it impacting your gross margin by as much as 150 basis points in the third quarter.

您談到它在第三季度影響您的毛利率高達 150 個基點。

Are those all fixed now?

現在這些都修好了？

Can you quantify if there's been any impact in the fourth quarter and thoughts on how yields are potentially impacting your outlook going forward?

您能否量化第四季度是否有任何影響，以及對收益率如何可能影響您未來前景的想法？

The bad chamber, the chamber matching problem, has been completely fixed.

壞室，室匹配問題，已完全修復。

Now, as I said, the yields actually have improved faster in the last three months, meaning, the fourth quarter.

現在，正如我所說，過去三個月，即第四季度，收益率實際上提高得更快。

And that's because in the third quarter we did have this chamber matching problem and a couple of others too, but the chamber matching I think was a very serious problem in the third quarter.

那是因為在第三季度我們確實遇到了這個房間匹配問題以及其他一些問題，但我認為第三季度的房間匹配是一個非常嚴重的問題。

And that problem has been fixed.

這個問題已經解決了。

Now, still, the 40nm, 45nm node is the pretty difficult one, and even now the profitability is below the corporate profitability.

現在，40nm、45nm節點還是挺難的，現在盈利能力還是低於企業盈利能力。

The gross margin is below the corporate level.

毛利率低於公司水平。

But it's highly positive.

但這是非常積極的。

It's not where that -- the -- it's not a case when we have a very, very bad situation.

這不是那個 - 不是 - 當我們遇到非常非常糟糕的情況時。

We just have a situation.

我們只是有一種情況。

Corporate average, you know, 48% in the fourth quarter, and it wasn't quite as high as that.

你知道，第四季度的企業平均水平為 48%，而且還沒有那麼高。

And the first quarter we are guiding corporate average of --

第一季度，我們指導企業平均水平——

47.5%

47.5%

-- 47.5% and we are not -- we don't expect the 40nm 45nm node to be at that level.

-- 47.5% 而我們不是 -- 我們預計 40nm 和 45nm 節點不會達到那個水平。

But basically there has been significant progress on the 40nm, 45nm node and I don't -- I can't identify a single problem that's killing us.

但基本上在 40nm、45nm 節點上已經取得了重大進展，而我沒有——我無法確定一個正在扼殺我們的問題。

I think that it's a general yield improvement program that we are doing.

我認為這是我們正在做的一個普遍的產量改進計劃。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just one final question, which is, on the competitive front you really don't sound very worried in any way, but I guess Globalfoundries and Chartered are now completing their integration issues there.

然後也許只是最後一個問題，那就是，在競爭方面，你真的一點也不擔心，但我猜 Globalfoundries 和特許銀行現在正在那裡完成他們的整合問題。

Have you see any changes in the competitive landscape?

您是否看到競爭格局有任何變化？

Are customers trying to leverage them off of you more?

客戶是否試圖更多地利用他們？

I know there's been some speculation they've been offering more discounted pricing, free masks, things like that.

我知道有人猜測他們一直在提供更多折扣價、免費口罩之類的東西。

Have there been any changes in the competitive landscape in light of the combination?

合併後的競爭格局是否發生了變化？

Well, we consider -- we always respect our competitors, but the Globalfoundries and Chartered merger, well, we have competed with Chartered for a long time and, to me, Globalfoundries and Chartered is a case of one plus one equals to two, and not greater than two.

好吧，我們認為——我們一直尊重我們的競爭對手，但是 Globalfoundries 和 Chartered 的合併，好吧，我們與 Chartered 競爭了很長時間，對我來說，Globalfoundries 和 Chartered 是一加一等於二的情況，並且不大於兩個。

And so we just compete with them calmly in our usual, hopefully, effective manner.

所以我們只是以我們通常的、希望的、有效的方式冷靜地與他們競爭。

Is there anything that I missed?

有什麼我錯過的嗎？

No, that's fine and all.

不，這很好。

If I could just have one quick housekeeping for you, Lora.

勞拉，如果我能為你做一個快速的家務活就好了。

I noticed that your revenue by applications, it looks like you maybe reclassified some things there, more went into industrial and other.

我注意到你的應用收入，看起來你可能在那裡重新分類了一些東西，更多的是進入工業和其他領域。

What was the thinking behind that and what changed?

這背後的想法是什麼，發生了什麼變化？

Well, if you refer to industrial and others, in the past we -- there's some applications it's between those segments, and we used to use [four rate] basis to allocate that revenue to Computer, Communication and Consumer.

好吧，如果您指的是工業和其他領域，過去我們 - 在這些細分市場之間有一些應用程序，我們曾經使用 [四費率] 基礎將收入分配給計算機、通信和消費者。

Now this time we have made it more clear and clearly identified which segment it goes to, so we have some reclassification among the segments.

現在這一次我們已經更清楚地確定了它屬於哪個細分市場，因此我們對細分市場進行了一些重新分類。

That's why you have seen a greater number of industrial and others.

這就是為什麼你看到了更多的工業和其他。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And our next question comes from the line of Donald Lu with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的唐納德·盧。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, Dr.

是的，博士。

Chang, I would like to say -- ask the progress for high-k/metal-gate and whether that would be a significant technology for TSMC.

Chang，我想說——詢問高 k/金屬柵極的進展，以及這是否會成為台積電的一項重要技術。

in the 28nm node very much so, and the progress is good.

在28nm節點上非常如此，而且進展不錯。

As I said, the progress on the 28nm node is good and that definitely includes high-k/metal-gate and, in fact, high-k/metal-gate is very, very important in that node.

正如我所說，28nm 節點的進展很好，這肯定包括高 k/金屬柵極，事實上，高 k/金屬柵極在該節點中非常非常重要。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

Two follow-up questions.

兩個後續問題。

Dr.

博士。

Chang, earlier on you talked about shortages of capacity or maybe rather not -- you don't see any excess capacity over the next two years.

張先生，您之前談到了產能短缺，或者說沒有——您看不到未來兩年有任何產能過剩。

I want to better understand this comment.

我想更好地理解這個評論。

Does your commentary reflect continued improvement in demand or just overall capacity being added in a rational way, or both?

您的評論是否反映了需求的持續改善或只是整體產能以合理的方式增加，或兩者兼而有之？

I would really appreciate it if you could provide us with more color as to how you come up with this conclusion.

如果您能為我們提供更多關於您如何得出此結論的信息，我將不勝感激。

And then my second question has to do with the Foundry growth of 29% this year.

然後我的第二個問題與今年 29% 的 Foundry 增長有關。

And to what extent do you expect TSM to be able to outgrow the Foundry industry growth in 2010?

您預計 TSM 在多大程度上能夠在 2010 年超過 Foundry 行業的增長？

All right, the first question, I said that I saw minimal risk in overcapacity on the most advanced nodes, which are 28nm, 40nm and 45nm, in the next two years.

好吧，第一個問題，我說我看到未來兩年最先進的節點，即28nm、40nm和45nm，產能過剩的風險很小。

And now, your question, where do I, how do I and why do I say it, is it because of increase in demand and so on?

現在，你的問題是，我在哪裡，我該怎麼說，我為什麼這麼說，是因為需求增加等等嗎？

Well, it is increase in demand as already reflected in my forecasts of the end market and my forecasts of the world Semiconductor market and my forecasts of the world Foundry market.

嗯，正如我對終端市場的預測和我對世界半導體市場的預測以及我對世界代工市場的預測所反映的那樣，這是需求的增加。

We are forecasting the world Foundry market to grow by 29%, as you already mentioned, and the Semiconductor market to grow by 18%.

正如您已經提到的，我們預測世界代工市場將增長 29%，而半導體市場將增長 18%。

Now, your second question, how much are we going to outgrow the Foundry market?

現在，您的第二個問題是，我們將在多大程度上超過 Foundry 市場？

Our goal is to outgrow it and I'm not prepared to say at this point how much we will outgrow it.

我們的目標是超越它，我現在不准備說我們將超越它多少。

Our goal is to outgrow it.

我們的目標是超越它。

I'm not prepared -- I will be guiding this year's revenue to you if I told you and I am not prepared to do that yet.

我還沒準備好——如果我告訴你，我將把今年的收入指導給你，我還沒有準備好這樣做。

Sure, understood.

當然，明白。

And then maybe another way to ask the same question is how should we think about exiting 2010?

然後也許問同樣問題的另一種方式是我們應該如何考慮退出 2010 年？

In other words, a year from now when you report the Q4 of 2010 should we expect a significant year-over-year growth, or is the majority of this 29% Foundry growth is going to happen because of the better-than-seasonal first half?

換句話說，當你報告 2010 年第四季度的一年後，我們是否應該預期會出現顯著的同比增長，或者這 29% 的鑄造增長的大部分將發生，因為第一季度優於季節性一半？

Well, my present forecast as to how we are going to exit for 2010, my present forecast is that we will have a smooth exit.

好吧，我目前對2010年我們將如何退出的預測，我目前的預測是我們將順利退出。

I'm not forecasting a crash as we exit 2010.

當我們退出 2010 年時，我並沒有預測會發生崩潰。

I think it will be a smooth exit.

我認為這將是一個平穩的退出。

Actually, our forecast for 2011 is -- certainly, it's not alarming but I'm not really prepared to quantify that.

實際上，我們對 2011 年的預測是——當然，這並不令人擔憂，但我還沒有真正準備好量化它。

Sure.

當然。

The reason I ask it this way is if your capacity is growing by 13% this year and --

我這樣問的原因是，如果你的產能今年增長了 13%，而且——

That's total capacity.

這就是總容量。

Remember now, you know, we also have to talk about the 12-inch capacity.

記住現在，你知道的，我們還不得不談論 12 英寸的容量。

12-inch actually is almost synonymous with advanced nodes.

12 英寸實際上幾乎是高級節點的代名詞。

Right, right.

是的是的。

And the majority of the CapEx is spent in the first half, then I'm just trying to better understand the run rate as we exit the 2010, and a better understanding 2011.

大部分資本支出都花在了上半年，然後我只是想更好地了解我們退出 2010 年時的運行率，以及更好地了解 2011 年。

That's where it leads to my questions; a better understanding how this capacity, the $4.8b CapEx, how's it going to impact capacity growth as we exit 2010?

這就是導致我的問題的地方；更好地了解這種容量，即 $4.8b 的資本支出，在我們退出 2010 年時將如何影響容量增長？

Well, I think we will have greater capacity in 2011 than we have in fourth quarter 2010, that's for sure.

嗯，我認為我們在 2011 年的產能將超過 2010 年第四季度的產能，這是肯定的。

But the front loading of the capital spending this year means that the residual stuff is not going to be a tail wagging the dog, I think.

但我認為，今年資本支出的前期負荷意味著剩餘的東西不會是搖尾巴。

And, now, we have encompassed the 2011 capacity in our longer-range forecast and, as I said, we have also forecast 2011 to be a reasonably good year, a pretty good year, so I'm not -- at this point I'm not worried at all.

而且，現在，我們已經將 2011 年的產能納入了我們的長期預測，正如我所說，我們還預測 2011 年將是相當不錯的一年，相當不錯的一年，所以我不是——在這一點上，我'一點也不擔心。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Shailesh Jaitly with Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村的 Shailesh Jaitly。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Yes, hi.

是的，你好。

If you could help provide some color on Japanese customer engagement, as to how the progress is there, particularly keeping the massive restructuring which is going on in Japan in mind.

如果您可以幫助為日本客戶的參與提供一些色彩，關於進展如何，特別是牢記日本正在進行的大規模重組。

We are engaging with most of the major customers, most of the major companies that plan to outsource.

我們正在與大多數主要客戶、大多數計劃外包的主要公司進行接觸。

Outsourcing from Japan has been relatively small, but we are engaging with most of them and I really shouldn't be -- you probably know about Fujitsu which was a new engagement and a pretty important one, and that one has been announced.

日本的外包規模相對較小，但我們正在與他們中的大多數進行接觸，而我真的不應該這樣做——你可能知道富士通，這是一項新的參與，也是一項非常重要的參與，並且已經宣布。

The others I think we are in pretty active discussions, but I don't want to go into details on those yet.

其他我認為我們正在進行非常積極的討論，但我不想詳細討論這些內容。

Has this side of the business become substantial enough that you could possibly help quantify this?

這方面的業務是否變得足夠重要，以至於您可以幫助量化這一點？

That we could what?

那我們能做什麼？

Quantify.

量化。

That business is still smaller than our European business.

該業務仍然小於我們的歐洲業務。

And how big is European business?

歐洲企業有多大？

Well, I think you can check that out on our management -- quarterly management report where we have customer breakdowns by region.

好吧，我認為您可以在我們的管理層中查看這一點——季度管理報告，其中我們按地區劃分了客戶細分。

Sure, thanks, Lora.

當然，謝謝，勞拉。

And about this capacity growth, right, because order growth has been very strong, even from memory, guys.

關於產能增長，對，因為訂單增長非常強勁，即使是從記憶中，伙計們。

I was wondering whether you are seeing any parts of the supply chain there, particularly the critical immersion tools where the lead times are stretching.

我想知道您是否在那裡看到了供應鏈的任何部分，尤其是交貨時間延長的關鍵沉浸式工具。

And if you could help quantify where are the lead times currently.

如果你能幫助量化目前的交貨時間在哪裡。

Indeed, the lead time of our equipment suppliers, in particular the litho supplier, indeed, the lead time has been a problem, but I also think that because of the very fact that we are a pretty big customer with them -- we practice this partnership concept upstream and downstream; downstream with our customers and upstream with our major suppliers.

確實，我們的設備供應商，尤其是光刻供應商的交貨時間，確實，交貨時間一直是個問題，但我也認為，因為我們是他們的大客戶——我們實踐了這一點上下游合作理念；下游與我們的客戶和上游與我們的主要供應商。

And because of the partnership we have built with our leading equipment suppliers, I believe that we have an advantage in getting shortest lead time from them.

由於我們與領先的設備供應商建立了合作夥伴關係，我相信我們在從他們那裡獲得最短交貨時間方面具有優勢。

Okay.

好的。

And just to get some assessment, and that will also help us understand better what previous gentleman was asking, is it in excess of six months now, the lead times for litho tools?

只是為了得到一些評估，這也將有助於我們更好地理解前任先生所問的問題，現在是否超過六個月，光刻工具的交貨時間？

The lead time for us is three to five months.

我們的交貨時間是三到五個月。

Litho will be higher.

光刻機會更高。

If you talking about immersion, it's even longer.

如果你談論沉浸感，它會更長。

Okay, thanks, Lora.

好的，謝謝，勞拉。

Operator, I think in the interests of time, since this has been running just about over an hour, we will just limit the question to the next caller.

接線員，我想為了時間的利益，因為這已經運行了大約一個多小時，我們將把問題限制在下一個呼叫者身上。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Sure.

當然。

And our next caller comes from the line of Michael Chou with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一位來電者來自德意志銀行的 Michael Chou。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Hi, Dr.

你好，博士。

Chang, I would like to see if you can give some color regarding the 40nm sales portion for this year?

Chang，我想看看你能不能給今年40nm銷售部分的一些顏色？

40nm --?

40納米——？

Sales portion for this year.

今年的銷售部分。

Can you say that again, Michael?

你能再說一遍嗎，邁克爾？

You mean percent of revenue?

你是說收入的百分比？

Yes, percentage of revenue.

是的，收入百分比。

We had 9% for the fourth quarter '09 and this will be the second year we'll ramp the 40nm, and it will go up quarter by quarter, but I probably cannot give you quantity -- quantify the number at this moment.

09 年第四季度我們有 9%，這將是我們第二年增加 40nm，並且會逐季上升，但我可能無法給你數量——現在量化這個數字。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Multiple speakers).

（多個揚聲器）。

It will go up from the 9% that we had in the fourth quarter, [everything].

它將比我們在第四季度的 9% 上升，[一切]。

Okay.

好的。

In last conference Dr.

在上次會議上博士。

Chang highlighted it could be maybe mid-teens of the 2010 revenue.

Chang 強調，這可能是 2010 年收入的十幾歲左右。

Is that still the case, or do you think it will be challenging to reach that kind of number?

情況仍然如此，或者您認為達到這樣的數字是否具有挑戰性？

No, it's not a challenging number.

不，這不是一個具有挑戰性的數字。

Given our capacity build up and our customer engagement, 40nm is pretty strong.

鑑於我們的產能建設和客戶參與度，40nm 非常強大。

We're still with a view it's going to be, well, 15% or higher.

我們仍然認為它將是 15% 或更高。

Did you say mid-teens for the whole year?

你是說全年都在十幾歲嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I don't consider that to be very challenging.

我不認為這很有挑戰性。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I have no questions, thank you.

我沒有問題，謝謝。

All right, I think this concludes our Q&A session.

好的，我想我們的問答環節到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

We look forward to talk to you in April.

我們期待在四月與您交談。

I wish you all a nice day or evening.

祝大家有個愉快的一天或晚上。

Bye bye.

再見。

Before we conclude TSMC's fourth quarter '09 results webcast conference call today, please be advised that the replay of the conference call will only be accessible through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們今天結束台積電 09 年第四季度業績網絡直播電話會議之前，請注意，電話會議的重播只能通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 訪問。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。