台積電 ADR (TSM) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(Spoken in Mandarin).

（用普通話講）。

Welcome to TSMC's first-quarter 2016 earnings conference and conference call.

歡迎參加台積電 2016 年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us via the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter of 2016, followed by our guidance for the second quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官何玲女士將總結我們在 2016 年第一季度的運營情況，然後是我們對第二季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho, and TSMC's two Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei will jointly provide our key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電的兩位聯席 CEO Mark Liu 博士和 C.C. Wei 將共同提供我們的關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for Q&A.

然後我們將打開地板和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把講台交給台積電首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以獲得運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start from financial highlights for the first quarter, followed by the guidance for the second quarter.

我的演講將從第一季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第二季度的指導。

First-quarter revenue came out slightly better than we have expected.

第一季度的收入略好於我們的預期。

Although the February 6 earthquake caused some delay in wafer shipments in the first quarter, we saw business upside resulting from demand increases in mid and low-end smartphone segment and customers inventory restocking.

儘管 2 月 6 日的地震導致第一季度的晶圓出貨有所延遲，但我們看到中低端智能手機領域的需求增加和客戶庫存補充帶來了業務上行空間。

Therefore our first-quarter revenue was essentially flat from the fourth quarter last year compared to about 2% decline we guided three months ago.

因此，我們第一季度的收入與去年第四季度基本持平，而我們三個月前指導的下降幅度約為 2%。

Our first-quarter gross margin was 44.9% and operating margin was [34.6%].(corrected by company after the call) Both are 3.7 percentage points lower than fourth quarter last year due to lower utilization and the negative impact from the earthquake, which I will provide more detail later.

我們第一季度的毛利率為 44.9%，營業利潤率為 [34.6%]。（由公司在電話會議後更正）由於利用率較低和地震的負面影響，兩者均比去年第四季度下降 3.7 個百分點。我稍後會提供更多細節。

Overall our first-quarter EPS was $2.50.

總體而言，我們第一季度的每股收益為 2.50 美元。

Now let's take a look at revenue contributed by application.

現在讓我們看看應用程序貢獻的收入。

During the first quarter, communication and consumer increased 4% and 15% respectively, while computer and industrial/standard decreased 7% and 9% respectively.

第一季度，通信和消費分別增長4%和15%，而計算機和工業/標準分別下降7%和9%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

16- and 20-nanometer contributed 23% of our total wafer revenue in the first quarter.

16 納米和 20 納米在第一季度貢獻了我們總晶圓收入的 23%。

In addition, 28-nanometer saw a nice rebound in demand and contributed 30% of our total wafer revenue.

此外，28 納米的需求出現了不錯的反彈，占我們晶圓總收入的 30%。

Together, these three advanced technologies accounted for 53% of total wafer revenue.

這三項先進技術合計佔晶圓總收入的 53%。

Now moving into the balance sheet.

現在進入資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD648b, an increase of TWD62b.

我們以 TWD648b 的現金和有價證券結束第一季度，增加了 TWD62b。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased TWD24b.

在負債方面，流動負債增加了TWD24b。

The increase included the reclassification of TWD10b bonds payable from long-term to current.

增加包括將應付 TWD10b 債券從長期債券重新分類為流動債券。

During the year of 2011 and 2013, TSMC issued corporate bonds totaling TWD211b to support the capital expenditure.

在 2011 年和 2013 年，台積電發行了總額為 TWD211b 的公司債券，以支持資本支出。

These bonds will gradually become due starting from this current quarter.

這些債券將從本季度開始逐步到期。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained at 41 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數維持在 41 天。

Days of inventory decreased by 8 days to 54 days, reflecting more shipments from finished wafers and earthquake impact.

庫存天數減少 8 天至 54 天，反映成品晶圓出貨量增加和地震影響。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter we generated about TWD122b cash from operations and spent TWD38b in capital expenditure.

在第一季度，我們從運營中產生了大約 TWD122b 的現金，並將 TWD38b 用於資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD83b this quarter.

因此，我們本季度產生了 TWD83b 的自由現金流。

And overall cash balance increased TWD55b to reach TWD618b at the end of the first quarter.

第一季度末，整體現金餘額增加了 55 新台幣，達到 618 新台幣。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let me turn to the second-quarter outlook.

現在讓我談談第二季度的展望。

We expect our business in the second quarter will benefit from continued inventory restocking and the recovery of the delayed shipments from the earthquake.

我們預計我們第二季度的業務將受益於持續的庫存補充和地震延遲發貨的恢復。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumptions of $1 to TWD32.30, we expect second-quarter revenue to be between TWD215b and TWD218b, which represents 6% to 7% sequential increase.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌新台幣 32.30 的匯率假設，我們預計第二季度收入將介於新台幣 215b 和新台幣 218b 之間，環比增長 6% 至 7%。

Gross profit margin to be between 49% and 51%, and operating margin to be between 38.5% and 40.5%.

毛利率在 49% 到 51% 之間，營業利潤率在 38.5% 到 40.5% 之間。

In the second quarter, we will begin -- we will again need to accrue the 10% tax on undistributed retained earnings.

在第二季度，我們將開始——我們將再次需要對未分配的留存收益徵收 10% 的稅。

As a result, our quarterly tax rate will be about 24% in the second quarter.

因此，我們的季度稅率將在第二季度約為 24%。

The tax rate will then fall back to 11% level in the third and fourth quarter.

然後稅率將在第三和第四季度回落至 11% 的水平。

And the full-year tax rate will be about 14%.

全年稅率約為14%。

Now let me give you some comments about the earthquake impact and this year's profitability and CapEx.

現在讓我給你一些關於地震影響和今年盈利能力和資本支出的評論。

On February 6 this year, an earthquake of 6.4 magnitude struck southern Taiwan and caused damages to certain parts of our tool in our manufacturing site in Tainan and disrupted production.

今年 2 月 6 日，台灣南部發生 6.4 級地震，導致我們台南製造基地的工具部分零件受損，並導致生產中斷。

As a result of wafer shipment delays, we have pushed out deliveries off about 90k 12-inch wafer from first quarter to second quarter.

由於晶圓發貨延遲，我們已將約 90k 12 英寸晶圓的交付從第一季度推遲到第二季度。

The financial impact of this earthquake to TSMC is as follows.

本次地震對台積電的財務影響如下。

First, it reduced our first-quarter revenue by about TWD7b and lowered first quarter growth margin by 2.2 percentage points.

首先，它使我們的第一季度收入減少了約TWD7b，並將第一季度的增長率降低了2.2個百分點。

About 1.1-percentage-point reduction is due to the losses associated with the property damage and the wafer scrap net of insurance claims.

大約 1.1 個百分點的減少是由於與財產損失和保險索賠後的晶圓報廢相關的損失。

Another 1.1 percentage point is contributed by the loss of productivity.

另外 1.1 個百分點是由生產力損失造成的。

The impact to our first-quarter operating margin is about 2.4 percentage points.

對我們第一季度營業利潤率的影響約為 2.4 個百分點。

And the negative impact to first-quarter operating income in dollars is about TWD7b.

以美元計，對第一季度營業收入的負面影響約為 TWD7b。

Wafer shipments that are delayed to second quarter will benefit our second-quarter revenue by about TWD7b and contributed positively to second-quarter gross margin by about 0.7 percentage point, to operating margin by about 0.9 percentage point.

推遲到第二季度的晶圓出貨將使我們第二季度的收入受益約 TWD7b，並為第二季度的毛利率帶來約 0.7 個百分點的積極貢獻，對營業利潤率的貢獻約為 0.9 個百分點。

And the positive impact to second-quarter operating income in dollars is about TWD5b.

以美元計，對第二季度營業收入的積極影響約為 TWD5b。

On a full-year basis, overall impact from the earthquake reduces our gross profit and operating profit margin by about 0.2 percentage point each and reduces our 2016 operating income by TWD2b.

按全年計算，地震的整體影響使我們的毛利潤和營業利潤率各下降約 0.2 個百分點，並使我們 2016 年的營業收入減少 TWD2b。

Now let me say a few words about 2016 profitability and capital expenditure.

現在讓我談談 2016 年的盈利能力和資本支出。

Regarding our structural profitability, as you may know, in the past six to seven years we increased our structured profitability by 4 to 5 percentage points, to the upper 40% range.

關於我們的結構性盈利能力，您可能知道，在過去的六到七年中，我們將結構性盈利能力提高了 4 到 5 個百分點，達到了 40% 的上限。

We are optimistic that we can maintain that level in 2016.

我們樂觀地認為我們可以在 2016 年保持這一水平。

My last comment is about 2016 CapEx.

我的最後一條評論是關於 2016 年資本支出。

In the last investor conference three months ago, we have stated our 2016 capital budget to be between $9b to $10b.

在三個月前的最後一次投資者會議上，我們已經聲明我們 2016 年的資本預算在 $9b 到 $10b 之間。

We maintain the same guidance range today.

我們今天維持相同的指導範圍。

This ends my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn the podium to our Co-CEO, Mark Liu.

現在我想把領獎台轉給我們的聯合首席執行官 Mark Liu。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Let me start to give you a report on our new turn demand and inventory outlook.

讓我開始向您報告我們新的周轉需求和庫存前景。

Our 1Q 2016 revenue is essentially flat from 4Q 2015, however, exceeding our February 17's revised guidance.

我們 2016 年第一季度的收入與 2015 年第四季度基本持平，但超過了我們 2 月 17 日的修訂指引。

This result was helped by an increase in smartphone demand for China and emerging markets, pull-in from second quarter and faster recovery from the earthquake, which offsets the weakness and seasonality in the high-end smartphone sector.

這一結果得益於中國和新興市場智能手機需求的增加、第二季度的拉動以及地震中更快的複蘇，抵消了高端智能手機行業的疲軟和季節性。

We estimate our fabless income days of inventory to increase from 2 days below seasonal, exiting 4Q 2015, to about seasonal level ending 1Q 2016.

我們估計我們的無晶圓廠庫存收入天數將從 2015 年第 4 季度結束的低於季節性的 2 天增加到 2016 年第 1 季度結束的大約季節性水平。

Looking ahead for 2Q 2016, we forecast a growth of 6% to 7% quarter to quarter in NT dollars or 8% to 9% in US dollars.

展望 2016 年第 2 季，我們預測按新台幣計算按季增長 6%至 7%，按美元計算按季增長 8%至 9%。

Most of our fabless customers may see an above-seasonal growth in 2Q 2016, driven by OEMs' new product launches and inventory restocking in the supply chain.

我們的大多數無晶圓廠客戶在 2016 年第二季度可能會看到高於季節性的增長，這主要得益於 OEM 的新產品發布和供應鏈中的庫存補貨。

We estimate days of inventory will still be close to seasonal level exiting 2Q 2016.

我們估計庫存天數仍將接近 2016 年第二季度的季節性水平。

Due to the world macroeconomic uncertainties, we reduced our estimate of 2016 smartphone growth from 8% to 7%, PC from minus 3% to minus 6%, tablet from minus 7% to minus 9%, while maintaining digital consumer electronics growth rate at minus 5%.

由於世界宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們將 2016 年智能手機增長預測從 8% 下調至 7%，PC 從負 3% 下調至負 6%，平板電腦從負 7% 下調至負 9%，同時維持數字消費電子產品增長率為負 5%。

In spite of the reductions of these growth rates, there are still growth areas in smartphones, broadband network, wireless infrastructures and gaming.

儘管這些增長率有所下降，但智能手機、寬帶網絡、無線基礎設施和遊戲領域仍有增長空間。

For smartphone growth, momentum comes from China's 4G+ deployment, through increases of operator subsidy and the continued 3G-to-4G upgrade in emerging markets.

對於智能手機的增長，動力來自中國的 4G+ 部署、運營商補貼的增加以及新興市場持續的 3G 到 4G 升級。

These factors will also drive the associated infrastructure growth.

這些因素也將推動相關的基礎設施增長。

Recently we also see good demand from gaming GPU and game console processors for VR applications.

最近，我們還看到遊戲 GPU 和遊戲機處理器對 VR 應用的良好需求。

For the whole year of 2016, we estimate the growth of world semiconductor to be about 1%.

2016年全年，我們估計世界半導體的增長在1%左右。

We maintain our estimate for the foundry market growth of about 5% and TSMC revenue growth of 5% to 10% this year.

我們維持對今年代工市場增長約 5% 和台積電收入增長 5% 至 10% 的預期。

Now I move on to leading-edge technology.

現在我轉向前沿技術。

Let me give you first on N10 update.

讓我先介紹一下 N10 更新。

We have received N10 customer product tape-out in 1Q 2016.

我們在 2016 年第一季度收到了 N10 客戶產品的流片。

We are actively preparing for more customer product tape-outs in the following quarters.

在接下來的幾個季度，我們正在積極準備更多的客戶產品流片。

Most of our N10 users are for mobile products.

我們的大多數 N10 用戶都是針對移動產品的。

We will put this technology in production in two of TSMC's 12-inch giga-fabs.

我們將在台積電的兩個 12 英寸千兆晶圓廠中投入生產這項技術。

Those tape-outs will drive a sizable demand starting from 2Q 2017 through 2018.

從 2017 年第二季度到 2018 年，這些流片將推動可觀的需求。

Our 7-nanometer technology, N7, the technology development is well on track.

我們的 7 納米技術，N7，技術發展進展順利。

N7 is a further extension of N10 technology, with more than 60% in logic density gain and 30% to 40% reduction in power consumption.

N7是N10技術的進一步延伸，邏輯密度增益超過60%，功耗降低30%~40%。

N7 fully leverages N10 learning and shares more than 95% of common tools.

N7 充分利用 N10 學習並共享 95% 以上的常用工具。

We have expanded our N7 design ecosystem development to include both mobile and high-performance computing, to enable our customers to deliver their first-to-market products.

我們擴展了我們的 N7 設計生態系統開發，將移動計算和高性能計算包括在內，以使我們的客戶能夠交付他們的首個上市產品。

Our N7 adoption is very strong, with customers ranging from mobile GPU, game console, FPGA, network processors and other consumer product applications.

我們的 N7 採用率非常高，客戶範圍包括移動 GPU、遊戲機、FPGA、網絡處理器和其他消費產品應用。

We have more than 20 customers in intensive design engagement with us and expect to have 15 customer tape-outs in 2017.

我們有 20 多個客戶與我們進行密集的設計合作，預計 2017 年將有 15 個客戶流片。

The volume production of N7 will start from first half 2018.

N7的量產將從2018年上半年開始。

Now on EUV, we have made good progress in the EUV development with ASML.

現在在 EUV 上，我們與 ASML 在 EUV 開發方面取得了不錯的進展。

Recently EUV development gained quite a good momentum across the industry.

最近，EUV 的發展在整個行業中獲得了相當好的勢頭。

Tool source power of 60 watts to 80 watts is capable of becoming operational in fabs now.

60 瓦至 80 瓦的工具源功率現在能夠在晶圓廠中投入使用。

We are working on the tool reliability under fab operating conditions.

我們正在研究晶圓廠操作條件下的工具可靠性。

EUV photoresist mask fabrication, particle control and basic modules have all made good progress.

EUV光刻膠掩模製造、粒子控制和基礎模塊均取得了良好進展。

We recently demonstrated a reasonable yield on our N7 yield vehicle, 128-megabit SRAM using one EUV layer.

我們最近展示了我們的 N7 良率車輛的合理良率，即使用一個 EUV 層的 128 兆位 SRAM。

Currently development of a reliable EUV mask pellicle is another focus to enable a mass production operation.

目前，開發可靠的 EUV 掩模薄膜是實現大規模生產操作的另一個重點。

Next I want to give you an update on growth drivers for our leading-edge technology, where the demand comes from for our leading-edge technologies.

接下來我想給大家介紹一下我們前沿技術的增長動力，需求來自於我們的前沿技術。

First, mobile.

第一，手機。

We see continuing technology advancement in baseband, application processors, RF transceivers and wireless connectivity to meet the demand of LTE-advanced specifications.

我們看到基帶、應用處理器、射頻收發器和無線連接方面的技術不斷進步，以滿足 LTE 高級規範的需求。

The growth of 4G data rate through carrier aggregation and high-frequency Wi-Fi drives the need for more complex and larger chips.

通過載波聚合和高頻 Wi-Fi 實現的 4G 數據速率增長推動了對更複雜和更大芯片的需求。

All the above drive the demand for our N10 and N7 technologies, which will enter production in 2017 to 2019.

以上這些都推動了我們對 N10 和 N7 技術的需求，這些技術將在 2017 年至 2019 年投入生產。

The next emerging 5G standard also prompts our customers to develop state-of-the-art base station and baseband application processors to capture early business opportunity using our N10 and N7 technologies.

下一個新興的 5G 標準還促使我們的客戶開發最先進的基站和基帶應用處理器，以利用我們的 N10 和 N7 技術抓住早期商機。

Second area is high-performance computing.

第二個領域是高性能計算。

We also work closely with our customers to address the opportunity in the high-performance computing market.

我們還與客戶密切合作，以抓住高性能計算市場的機會。

We work with ARM to co-optimize its CPU cores with TSMC solutions to enable our customers to deliver their products in the cloud computing market.

我們與 ARM 合作，通過 TSMC 解決方案共同優化其 CPU 內核，使我們的客戶能夠在雲計算市場上交付他們的產品。

Today our customers have only a very small market share in cloud computing, mostly in networking and storage applications.

今天，我們的客戶在雲計算領域的市場份額非常小，主要是在網絡和存儲應用領域。

With TSMC's high-performance computing technologies, we will support our customers to participate in this fast-growing cloud computing market.

憑藉台積電的高性能計算技術，我們將支持我們的客戶參與這個快速增長的雲計算市場。

The last area is VR/AR, ADAS and so forth.

最後一個領域是VR/AR、ADAS等。

VR/AR, deep learning and artificial intelligence, artificial AI are the emerging applications that will require leading-edge technologies.

VR/AR、深度學習和人工智能、人工人工智能是需要前沿技術的新興應用。

Consumer-oriented VR/AR products for immersed gaming and immersive video viewing experience have begun shipment in 1Q this year.

面向消費者的沉浸式遊戲和沈浸式視頻觀看體驗的 VR/AR 產品已於今年第一季度開始出貨。

The data transfer rate of VR/AR products in interactive design, remote training and multisite conferencing must still be enhanced by 10x from today's level in order to enable quality viewing experience.

VR/AR 產品在交互設計、遠程培訓和多站點會議中的數據傳輸率仍必須比現在的水平提高 10 倍，才能實現高質量的觀看體驗。

Thus all these applications require low-power and high-speed GPU and CPU and therefore requires our leading-edge technologies.

因此，所有這些應用都需要低功耗和高速的 GPU 和 CPU，因此需要我們的領先技術。

We see increasing demand also both in enhanced safety and improved infotainment system in automotive applications.

我們看到汽車應用中對增強安全性和改進信息娛樂系統的需求也在增加。

The ADAS advanced driver assist systems include adaptive cruising control, emergency brake, collision avoidance, lane tracking and auto parking assistant.

ADAS 高級駕駛員輔助系統包括自適應巡航控制、緊急制動、防撞、車道跟踪和自動泊車輔助。

The advanced infotainment system includes both high-performance multimedia applications.

先進的信息娛樂系統包括高性能多媒體應用程序。

Both automakers and tier-one module suppliers are defining the specs and increasing their adoption for ADAS and advanced infotainment systems.

汽車製造商和一級模塊供應商都在定義規格並增加其在 ADAS 和高級信息娛樂系統中的應用。

This trend will certainly also speed up the adoption of TSMC's leading-edge technology.

這一趨勢肯定也會加速台積電領先技術的採用。

That is my report.

那是我的報告。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I will turn the podium to C.C. Wei.

我會把領獎台轉給 C.C.魏。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Today I will update you on the status of 16-nanometers, 28-nanometer, InFO and specialty technologies.

今天我將向您介紹 16 納米、28 納米、InFO 和專業技術的現狀。

I will also talk about their role as a growth driver.

我還將談論他們作為增長動力的作用。

First on 16-nanometer.

首先是 16 納米。

We continue to ramp 16-nanometer with yield and cycle time better than our target.

我們繼續以比我們的目標更好的良率和周期時間提升 16 納米。

Applications in mobile processors, cellular baseband, video game player, PC graphics will contribute significantly to our 16-nanometer shipment this year.

移動處理器、蜂窩基帶、視頻遊戲播放器、PC 顯卡中的應用將對我們今年的 16 納米出貨量做出重大貢獻。

Meanwhile we also begin shipment for other applications, such as the Ethernet switch, CPU, networking processor, programmable logic device and others.

同時我們也開始出貨其他應用，如以太網交換機、CPU、網絡處理器、可編程邏輯器件等。

We expect 16-nanometer will contribute above 20% wafer revenue this year.

我們預計今年 16 納米將貢獻超過 20% 的晶圓收入。

As I reported here last quarter, we have completed the development of a low-power and low-cost version 16FFC.

正如我上個季度在這里報道的那樣，我們已經完成了低功耗和低成本版本 16FFC 的開發。

I can inform you today that 16FFC is now the most adopted solution by our 16-nanometer customers and we have entered mass production since first quarter this year.

我今天可以告訴你，16FFC 現在是我們 16 納米客戶採用最多的解決方案，我們從今年第一季度開始進入量產階段。

In addition to 16FFC, we also developed an ultra-low-power solution, with much lower operating voltage down to a level below 0.5 volts without too much sacrifice of the circuit speed.

除了 16FFC，我們還開發了超低功耗解決方案，其工作電壓低得多，可降至 0.5 伏以下，而不會過多犧牲電路速度。

We believe this is a superior solution compared to other technology approaches available in the low-power area today and is ideally suited for the mobile and IoT market.

我們相信，與當今低功耗領域可用的其他技術方法相比，這是一種卓越的解決方案，非常適合移動和物聯網市場。

Both mobile and IoT will be the main growth driver in the future.

移動和物聯網都將成為未來的主要增長動力。

Now let me move on to 28-nanometer.

現在讓我繼續討論 28 納米。

Since our last conference, we have seen strong demand for our 28-nanometer, coming mainly from the mid and low-end smartphone related applications.

自上次會議以來，我們看到了對我們 28 納米的強勁需求，主要來自中低端智能手機相關應用。

As a result, the utilization rate of 28-nanometer has remained well above 90%.

因此，28納米的利用率一直保持在90%以上。

We think it will stay at a high level throughout this year.

我們認為它將在今年全年保持在高水平。

Key to this strong demand has been TSMC's 28HPC and 28HPC+.

這種強勁需求的關鍵是台積電的 28HPC 和 28HPC+。

In addition to the mid and low-end smartphones, applications related to networking processors and consumer products also adopt our 28HPC and HPC+.

除了中低端智能手機，與網絡處理器和消費產品相關的應用也採用了我們的28HPC和HPC+。

Our 28-nanometer focus today is in the low power area and we developed a strong platform.

我們今天的 28 納米重點是低功耗領域，我們開發了一個強大的平台。

Our 28ULP, ULP+ and 28HPC+ are very effective in addressing the needs for low power consumption, which is critical for the IoT market.

我們的 28ULP、ULP+ 和 28HPC+ 在滿足對物聯網市場至關重要的低功耗需求方面非常有效。

Again, we expect IoT-related applications will become the next demand driver for TSMC's 28-nanometer technology.

同樣，我們預計物聯網相關應用將成為台積電 28 納米技術的下一個需求驅動力。

We are confident on the competitiveness of our 28-nanometer solutions and believe we will hold our strong market segment share over the next few years.

我們對 28 納米解決方案的競爭力充滿信心，並相信我們將在未來幾年保持強勁的市場份額。

Now let me update on InFO.

現在讓我更新一下 InFO。

Equipment installation at our Longtan site for volume production is almost complete.

在我們的龍潭工廠進行量產的設備安裝已基本完成。

We expect to complete customer product qualification shortly and will be ready for volume production in this quarter.

我們預計不久將完成客戶產品認證，並將在本季度準備好量產。

Our expectation of InFO contributing more than $100m per quarter in 4Q this year remains unchanged.

我們對 InFO 在今年第四季度每季度貢獻超過 1 億美元的預期保持不變。

In addition to high-volume preparation and product qualification, we are working on yield improvement and cost reduction.

除了大批量製備和產品認證外，我們還致力於提高產量和降低成本。

Now let me make some comments on InFO technology.

現在讓我對 InFO 技術發表一些評論。

Compared to the conventional package, TSMC InFO has advantage in form factor, such as smaller area and a similar thickness, and also is power efficient.

與傳統封裝相比，台積電 InFO 在外形尺寸方面具有優勢，例如面積更小、厚度相近，並且還具有功率效率。

You can reduce the power consumption by as much as 20%.

您可以將功耗降低多達 20%。

Meanwhile, InFO supports our memory bandwidth and therefore improves circuit performance.

同時，InFO 支持我們的內存帶寬，因此提高了電路性能。

With TSMC's InFO technology, our customers can integrate the multiple chip in the same package while reducing the overall cost.

借助台積電的 InFO 技術，我們的客戶可以將多個芯片集成在同一封裝中，同時降低總體成本。

This advantage will enable InFO technology to play an important role in the chip partitioning, which can be one of the effective ways to reduce cost for products which utilize leading-edge technology, such as 7-nanometer technology and beyond.

這一優勢將使 InFO 技術在芯片分割中發揮重要作用，這可以成為利用領先技術（如 7 納米技術及以上技術）的產品降低成本的有效途徑之一。

As a result, we believe InFO will be a powerful technology to capture the growth opportunity in both mobile and IoT market.

因此，我們相信 InFO 將成為抓住移動和物聯網市場增長機會的強大技術。

Now I will talk about the specialty technologies.

現在我將談談專業技術。

Currently specialty technology at TSMC includes embedded flash for MCU and automotive products, CMOS image sensors, image signal processors, data converter, display driver, touch controller, fingerprint and MEMS for smartphones and also high voltage for power management.

目前台積電的專業技術包括用於 MCU 和汽車產品的嵌入式閃存、CMOS 圖像傳感器、圖像信號處理器、數據轉換器、顯示驅動器、觸摸控制器、指紋和智能手機的 MEMS，以及用於電源管理的高壓。

These specialty technologies have contributed increasingly to our revenue in recent years and are now accounted for more than a quarter of our total wafer revenue.

近年來，這些專業技術對我們收入的貢獻越來越大，現在占我們晶圓總收入的四分之一以上。

We have many exploratory efforts unfolding at TSMC and I will first talk about the largest three sectors, the embedded Flash, the CMOS image sensor and MEMS.

我們在台積電進行了許多探索性工作，我將首先談談最大的三個部門，嵌入式閃存、CMOS 圖像傳感器和 MEMS。

We have completed 40 nanometer embedded Flash development and begun volume production.

我們已經完成了 40 納米嵌入式 Flash 的開發並開始量產。

We are now developing 28-nanometer embedded Flash for automotive-related applications while working on other non-volatile memories for technologies beyond 28-nanometer.

我們現在正在為汽車相關應用開發 28 納米嵌入式閃存，同時為 28 納米以外的技術開發其他非易失性存儲器。

For CMOS image sensors, we have completed a hybrid bonding technology which will enhance the connection between chips.

對於 CMOS 圖像傳感器，我們已經完成了混合鍵合技術，這將增強芯片之間的連接。

This technology will push the image sensor performance to a new level and will be used by future smartphones.

該技術將圖像傳感器性能推向一個新的水平，並將被未來的智能手機使用。

In addition to the mobile phone application, we are developing other CMOS image sensor technology to improve the safety feature in automobile and for use in the medical area.

除手機應用外，我們正在開發其他 CMOS 圖像傳感器技術，以提高汽車和醫療領域的安全性能。

Now let's move to MEMS.

現在讓我們轉向MEMS。

MEMS has been widely used as a motion sensor in mobile phones.

MEMS已被廣泛用作手機中的運動傳感器。

We are also developing MEMS technology for environmental and biosensors for smart healthcare and medical IoT applications.

我們還在為智能醫療和醫療物聯網應用開髮用於環境和生物傳感器的 MEMS 技術。

In summary, we believe both automotive, medical markets and IoT present good growth opportunities for specialty technology in the next few years.

總之，我們認為汽車、醫療市場和物聯網在未來幾年都為專業技術提供了良好的增長機會。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I'd like to remind everybody to limit your questions to two at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask their questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制為兩個，以便所有參與者都有機會提出他們的問題。

Questions will be taken both floor and from the call.

問題將在發言和電話中提出。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star then one on your telephone keypad now.

對於那些正在通話的人，如果您想提出問題，請立即按電話鍵盤上的星號。

Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

問題將按照收到的順序進行。

If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press the pound or the hash key.

如果您想在任何時候將自己從提問隊列中刪除，請按井號或井號鍵。

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

First we will ask Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

首先，我們將詢問瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

First question, just want to ask about the business outlook.

第一個問題，只想問一下業務前景。

For second quarter it looks like somewhat mild growth, so like mid to high single-digit growth.

對於第二季度，它看起來有點溫和的增長，所以就像中高個位數的增長。

Just factoring in the earthquake, some shipments pushing out, smartphone lines chasing relatively lean inventory, could you talk about some headwinds you may be facing just to offset some of those positive drivers?

考慮到地震、一些出貨量的推遲、智能手機生產線追逐相對較少的庫存，您能否談談您可能面臨的一些不利因素，以抵消其中一些積極的驅動因素？

And then if we look at the second half, would that imply factoring in the 16-nanometer and InFO starting in second half?

然後如果我們看下半場，這是否意味著從下半場開始考慮 16 納米和 InFO？

How do you feel about second half at this stage?

在這個階段你對下半場感覺如何？

Well the second half, the headwind is not much different than the first half -- the second-quarter headwind is not much different than the first quarter.

下半年，逆風與上半年沒有太大區別——第二季度的逆風與第一季度沒有太大區別。

But we do have -- we do see the customers and even the end market demand is increasing.

但我們確實有——我們確實看到了客戶，甚至終端市場的需求也在增加。

The inventory restocking is still cautious.

庫存補貨依然謹慎。

And going forward, we're still watching this month by month to see if demand will change or not.

展望未來，我們仍在逐月觀察需求是否會發生變化。

But this is currently our perspective.

但這是目前我們的觀點。

Okay.

好的。

And if I could ask, for the forward technology, you're doing a much faster move to 7-nanometer, where it's a new bump every one year, where so many other foundries, like Intel, is going to an optimized, taking longer.

如果我可以問，對於前沿技術，你正在以更快的速度向 7 納米邁進，這是每年都有一個新的突破，許多其他代工廠，比如英特爾，正在優化，需要更長的時間.

And I'm curious on two fronts.

我對兩個方面感到好奇。

One if there's any trade off or risk to your strategy moving faster.

如果您的策略有任何權衡或風險，則可以更快地移動。

And the 7, your density shrink is about a 60%, so not at full shrink.

而 7，你的密度縮小了大約 60%，所以沒有完全縮小。

If, as we go through the node, if competitors could leapfrog with a full 7 nanometer or you can upgrade the process as you move through.

如果，當我們通過節點時，如果競爭對手可以以完整的 7 納米跨越，或者您可以在您通過節點時升級該過程。

So maybe talk about that strategy for what you're doing on 10 and 7.

所以也許可以談談你在 10 號和 7 號所做的事情的策略。

Well I cannot tell you all our strategy.

好吧，我不能告訴你我們所有的策略。

But we think we are developing a technology fit for our customers' product announcement.

但我們認為我們正在開發一種適合客戶產品發布的技術。

So all this strategy and roadmap is collaborating with our customers at the shortest time to be able to reach the maximum technology development benefit for their products.

因此，所有這些戰略和路線圖都是在最短的時間內與我們的客戶合作，以便能夠為他們的產品實現最大的技術開發效益。

So that has been the past two or three generations, but I don't see no difference going forward.

這已經是過去兩三代人的事了，但我認為未來沒有什麼不同。

A quick follow-up.

快速跟進。

Can you put EUV, and you gave the update, but could you bring that in partway through 7 to enhance the process, say, partway through?

你可以放 EUV，並且你提供了更新，但是你可以在 7 的中途引入它來增強過程，比如說，中途？

Or is it more targeted now for 5 nanometer?

還是現在針對 5 納米更有針對性？

Yes.

是的。

Our EUV, even though the recent progress is good, however, as you see, our 7-nanometer development is already in full steam and is getting to yield enhancement mode now.

我們的 EUV，儘管最近進展不錯，但是，正如您所見，我們的 7 納米開發已經如火如荼，現在正在進入產量增強模式。

And production is imminent.

生產迫在眉睫。

It's beginning of 2018.

這是2018年的開始。

So looking at this schedule, EUV is hard to reach for -- be able to contribute.

所以看看這個時間表，EUV 很難達到——能夠做出貢獻。

So for N7, it is purely a development vehicle for EUV.

所以對於N7來說，它純粹是EUV的開發工具。

We do plan to use EUV on our N5.

我們確實計劃在 N5 上使用 EUV。

And that is our plan.

這就是我們的計劃。

And we will -- we look at the schedule here that will fit properly EUV.

我們將 - 我們在這裡查看適合 EUV 的時間表。

Given the margin, it still will fit.

考慮到邊距，它仍然適合。

It depends on the following progress for EUV.

這取決於 EUV 的以下進展。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行，Michael Chou。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Regarding your comment on 10-nanometer, so you mentioned you have more than 20 customers for 10 nanometer.

關於您對 10 納米的評論，您提到您有 20 多個 10 納米客戶。

Am I right?

我對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So does that mean you actually see the stronger-than-expected 10-nanometer compared to six months ago based on your progress?

那麼這是否意味著根據您的進展，您實際上看到了比六個月前強於預期的 10 納米？

Because in the past it seems that -- I remember management mentioned 10-nanometer will be smaller than 16-nanometer.

因為過去似乎——我記得管理層提到 10 納米將小於 16 納米。

So based on latest progress, are you seeing the better demand outlook for 10-nanometer?

那麼根據最新進展，您是否看到 10 納米的需求前景更好？

When I talked about 20 customers, it's on 7-nanometer.

當我談到 20 個客戶時，它是 7 納米的。

Okay?

好的？

So 7-nanometer indeed, we see stronger adoption in the past quarters.

因此，確實是 7 納米，我們看到過去幾個季度的採用率更高。

So that's what we are -- I was addressing.

所以這就是我們——我正在解決的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Second question is for IoT.

第二個問題是關於物聯網的。

Is any way management can quantify the IoT sales portion or -- because it seems that a lot of people are saying IoT will be an important growth driver in the long term but we still cannot see a lot of IoT products coming out, and mainly for infrastructure buildup.

管理層是否可以量化物聯網銷售部分，或者 - 因為似乎很多人都說物聯網將成為長期的重要增長動力，但我們仍然看不到很多物聯網產品問世，主要是為了基礎設施建設。

So is there any way you can try to quantify?

那麼有什麼方法可以嘗試量化嗎？

Right.

正確的。

So we don't think that we can really quantify what is the IoT market today.

所以我們認為我們無法真正量化今天的物聯網市場。

But a lot of products that, for example, connect the sensors that essentially that IoT's most important product.

但是很多產品，例如，連接本質上是物聯網最重要產品的傳感器。

One of the IoT's most important is the sensors, including CMOS image sensor and the MEMS that you can see today.

物聯網最重要的傳感器之一是傳感器，包括您今天可以看到的 CMOS 圖像傳感器和 MEMS。

But you want to quantify the whole IoT market?

但是您想量化整個物聯網市場嗎？

No, we cannot.

不，我們不可以。

One final question.

最後一個問題。

Will some of the IoT use advanced nodes or will it -- they just use the 28 or 16 in the long term?

一些物聯網會使用高級節點還是會——他們只是長期使用 28 或 16？

It should be because the IoT related to a lot of data transmission, data communication.

應該是因為物聯網涉及到很多數據傳輸，數據通信。

So the computation, the high-speed computation is one of the essential parts of the IoT area.

所以計算，高速計算是物聯網領域的重要組成部分之一。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul Hariharan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Thanks.

謝謝。

My first question is on a little bit of granularity on the 2Q outlook.

我的第一個問題是關於第二季度前景的一些細節。

Could you talk a little bit about advanced node versus older node given that there is a lot of restocking at 28 and below?

鑑於 28 歲及以下有大量補貨，您能否談談高級節點與舊節點的區別？

Is it fair to say 16-nanometer is probably weaker than other nodes in second quarter?

說 16 納米在第二季度可能比其他節點弱，公平嗎？

All right.

好的。

I think you are asking us about the restocking in the second quarter, whether it is on 16 nodes or --?

我想你是在問我們關於第二季度的補貨，是在 16 個節點上還是--？

If it's primarily on older nodes to date or 28 and above.

如果它主要在迄今為止的較舊節點或 28 及以上節點上。

Whether the restocking is on the advanced nodes or across the board.

補貨是在高級節點上還是全面。

The restocking is mostly on 28, 40, 65.

補貨時間主要在 28、40、65 日。

Second, I think that you mentioned about cloud computing, high-performance compute as a potential market and you're working with ARM on 7-nanometer high-performance compute product as well.

其次，我認為您提到雲計算、高性能計算是一個潛在市場，並且您也在與 ARM 合作開發 7 納米高性能計算產品。

I think here, a couple of years back, you mentioned that software ecosystem readiness has still been an issue for this market.

我認為，幾年前，您提到軟件生態系統的準備情況仍然是這個市場的一個問題。

Any thoughts on what you're seeing from your customer side on this front?

關於您在這方面從客戶方面看到的任何想法？

How far they have gone and how is this market likely do more given that -- as you said, right now it's not really interested in the meat of the market, which is servers; it's primarily on the periphery.

他們已經走了多遠，考慮到這一點，這個市場如何可能做得更多——正如你所說，現在它對市場的核心——服務器並不真正感興趣；它主要在外圍。

Their momentum has collected quite a bit recently.

他們的勢頭最近收集了不少。

As you hear from Red Hat, with the software developer and from the -- some of the customer software alliances, as you know, has collected quite a bit.

正如您從 Red Hat 那裡聽到的，軟件開發人員和一些客戶軟件聯盟，如您所知，已經收集了相當多的信息。

And there are services, cloud services for application software development on several sides.

並且在多個方面都有用於應用軟件開發的服務、雲服務。

So the application software development also are progressing.

因此應用軟件的開發也在不斷進步。

So those part of the momentum we see increases.

因此，我們看到的那部分勢頭增加了。

And for TSMC, of course, we will support our customers in that high-performance computing platform.

當然，對於台積電，我們將在該高性能計算平台上為我們的客戶提供支持。

For us mostly it's the technology development, technology development also including the interface circuit development with our customers, also including the packaging solutions for that application.

對我們來說，主要是技術開發，技術開發還包括與客戶的接口電路開發，還包括該應用的封裝解決方案。

So I think that compared with a couple of years ago, indeed you are seeing a lot of reports that momentum is collecting quite a bit recently.

所以我認為，與幾年前相比，你確實看到了很多關於最近勢頭正在收集的報告。

So all the parts, we see the drivers for that into the high-performance computing market.

所以所有的部分，我們都看到了進入高性能計算市場的驅動力。

And just one follow-up.

只有一次跟進。

If you have to take a guess right now, is that going to be mostly merchant fabless or system fabless, like you mentioned as the potential growth driver in the last couple of calls.

如果您現在必須猜測，那將主要是商家無晶圓廠或系統無晶圓廠，就像您在最近幾次電話會議中提到的潛在增長動力一樣。

We see both.

我們都看到了。

We see both.

我們都看到了。

Including the service providers.

包括服務提供商。

They participate too.

他們也參與。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

First question is for the second quarter guidance now is TWD215b to TWD218b.

第一個問題是第二季度的指導現在是 TWD215b 到 TWD218b。

So if we exclude the push-out, push-out should be -- the shipment pushed out from first quarter, that should be about TWD7b.

因此，如果我們排除推出，推出應該是 - 從第一季度推出的出貨量，應該是 TWD7b 左右。

Right?

正確的？

So that actually is about TWD208b to TWD211b.

所以這實際上是關於 TWD208b 到 TWD211b。

So that actually is much smaller.

所以實際上要小得多。

Then if we take March, March multiplied by 3, that's TWD219b.

那麼如果我們取三月，三月乘以3，就是TWD219b。

So therefore the growth in the second quarter, for this growth, I think it's this -- what you expected early this year or are you going to see -- because of some weakness on the demand?

因此，因此第二季度的增長，對於這種增長，我認為這是 - 你今年早些時候的預期或你將看到的 - 因為需求疲軟？

There's a factor that affects our second quarter.

有一個因素會影響我們的第二季度。

One second.

一秒。

It's exchange rate.

是匯率。

We're using TWD32.30, which is very close to today's market.

我們使用的是TWD32.30，非常接近今天的市場。

And in first quarter our exchange rate was TWD33.1.

第一季度我們的匯率是TWD33.1。

So there's a 2.2% depreciate -- appreciate.

所以有 2.2% 的貶值——升值。

So that affects 2% of the revenue.

因此，這會影響 2% 的收入。

Another reason is what Mark was mentioning, that we see the inventory restocking continues throughout the second quarter.

另一個原因是馬克提到的，我們看到庫存補充庫存在整個第二季度都在繼續。

So that's another factor that we have kind of weaker-than-expected second quarter.

所以這是我們第二季度弱於預期的另一個因素。

Okay.

好的。

And also for the shipment delay, I think that according to your news release previously, you said about 100,000 of 12-inch wafer shipment had been delayed.

另外對於出貨延遲，我認為根據你之前的消息，你說大約有10萬片12英寸晶圓出貨延遲。

And however, I think earlier you said you probably shipped about 90,000.

但是，我想您之前說過您可能運送了大約 90,000 個。

So why is the difference between this 10,000, because they were cancelled by customer or we are going to further delay to 3Q?

那麼為什麼這 10,000 之間存在差異，因為它們被客戶取消了，或者我們將進一步推遲到 3Q？

No.

不。

Our fab people work really hard to recover the customer shipments.

我們的晶圓廠人員非常努力地恢復客戶的貨物。

So actually we do better.

所以實際上我們做得更好。

I think we have announced 120,000 in our press release and it came out around 90k.

我想我們已經在我們的新聞稿中宣布了 120,000 個，結果大約是 90,000 個。

So it's about 30% lower.

所以大約低了30%。

Okay.

好的。

And I think my second question is again Gartner just reported for TSMC last year, the overall foundry market share was about 54.5%.

我想我的第二個問題還是 Gartner 去年剛剛報導的台積電，整體代工市場份額約為 54.5%。

So I think for this year, we are recovering 16-nanometer market share aggressively.

所以我認為今年，我們正在積極恢復 16 納米的市場份額。

And also -- we are also going to production in 10-nanometer, with very high market share next year.

而且——我們還將生產 10 納米，明年市場份額非常高。

And I believe for the 7-nanometer production in 2018, that that will be much ahead of the peers.

而且我相信 2018 年的 7 納米生產，這將遠遠領先於同行。

So question is actually the three-year technology leadership, what do you think your growth -- your market share will be?

所以問題實際上是三年的技術領先地位，你認為你的增長——你的市場份額會是多少？

Well, the battle is ahead -- still ahead of us.

好吧，戰鬥就在前面——仍然在我們前面。

So I cannot claim any territory yet.

所以我還不能聲稱任何領土。

So we try to improve our market share just according to what you mentioned, the factors.

所以我們試圖根據你提到的因素來提高我們的市場份額。

Well is 60% of market share achievable?

那麼60%的市場份額可以實現嗎？

Anything is achievable.

任何事情都是可以實現的。

Of course.

當然。

At least 60%?

至少60%？

That's not what I said.

那不是我說的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I think with this three-year technology leadership, are you going to have an upside for your PBT target?

我認為憑藉這三年的技術領先地位，您的 PBT 目標是否會有上升空間？

I think now you said for five years the PBT target to grow by 10% in CAGR.

我想現在你說過五年 PBT 的目標是複合年增長率為 10%。

So with this technology leadership, any upside on this PBT target?

那麼，有了這種技術領先地位，這個 PBT 目標有什麼好處嗎？

Well the competition is still ahead of us.

好吧，競爭還在我們前面。

Right now it's just not the time to talk about what the trophy is.

現在不是談論獎杯是什麼的時候。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question comes from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題來自大和的 Rick Hsu。

Yes.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Just one question from me.

我只有一個問題。

About your second-quarter guidance, I think it looks to me it's a bit below seasonal in terms of sequential growth momentum.

關於您的第二季度指導，我認為就連續增長勢頭而言，它看起來略低於季節性。

And you also mentioned that the demand is mainly from the 28-nanometer, 40- and 65-nanometer, not much for the 16-nanometer.

而且你還提到，需求主要來自28納米、40納米和65納米，16納米的需求並不多。

And you also mentioned that you 16-nanometer for this year, the full-year revenue contribution will come to above 20%.

而且你還提到你今年16納米，全年收入貢獻將達到20%以上。

Can I take that as a -- your Q3 momentum is going to be really strong and likely above seasonal?

我可以將其視為-您的第三季度勢頭將非常強勁並且可能高於季節性嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Can you elaborate a little bit more?

你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Actually the high-volume ramp we expect in the second half of this year for the 16 FinFET.

實際上，我們預計 16 FinFET 將在今年下半年實現大批量生產。

That's because of leading-edge or the high-end smartphone.

那是因為領先的或高端的智能手機。

And other applications actually in the 16 FinFET continues on and we saw a lot of tape-out since last year.

實際上 16 FinFET 中的其他應用仍在繼續，自去年以來我們看到了很多流片。

So the momentum accumulated and I believe in the second half of this year we will see higher growth.

所以這種勢頭已經積累起來，我相信今年下半年我們會看到更高的增長。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

We -- I think we need to go to the line for some questions.

我們-- 我認為我們需要排隊回答一些問題。

So, operator, could you please have the first caller on the line?

那麼，接線員，您可以讓第一個來電者在線嗎？

We'll take the next question from the call.

我們將從電話中回答下一個問題。

Donald Lu, Goldman Sachs.

唐納德·盧，高盛。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

I have two questions.

我有兩個問題。

One is on InFO.

一個是在 InFO 上。

I think C.C. just commented that you package more chips and the cost will come down.

我認為C.C.剛剛評論說你包裝更多的芯片，成本就會下降。

And in what year, which year do you think the InFO cost will be similar or even lower than the conventional packaging?

以及在哪一年，您認為哪一年的 InFO 成本會與傳統包裝相近甚至更低？

And also assuming it will happen with 10-nanometer, 7-nanometer then, will TSMC expect your mobile market share to increase significantly at 7-nanometer versus 10-nanometer or 16-nanometer global market share?

並且假設它會發生在 10 納米、7 納米，那麼台積電是否會期望您的移動市場份額在 7 納米與 10 納米或 16 納米的全球市場份額相比顯著增加？

So that's question number one.

所以這是第一個問題。

Question number two is on the -- in second quarter, TSMC's 16-nanometer utilization is going to decline from Q1.

第二個問題是——在第二季度，台積電的 16 納米利用率將從第一季度開始下降。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So Donald's first question is if we can package multiple chips in InFO, which is the chip partitioning and reduce the cost, he asked which year we will begin to see that the cost on InFO is lower than the cost from conventional packaging.

所以唐納德的第一個問題是我們是否可以在InFO中封裝多個芯片，即芯片分區並降低成本，他問我們哪一年開始看到InFO的成本低於傳統封裝的成本。

And if we can apply this very useful technology on 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer, does that mean that our mobile market share will be higher at 7- and 10-nanometer compared to our mobile market share at 16-nanometer?

如果我們可以在 10 納米和 7 納米上應用這種非常有用的技術，這是否意味著我們在 7 和 10 納米的移動市場份額會比我們在 16 納米的移動市場份額更高？

That's first question.

這是第一個問題。

Second question is do we have a utilization decline at 16-nanometer in the second quarter.

第二個問題是我們在第二季度是否會出現 16 納米的利用率下降。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer the first question on the InFO.

讓我回答關於 InFO 的第一個問題。

I mentioned that the InFO [was] of the chip partitioning and that will serve reducing the cost.

我提到過 InFO [是] 芯片分區，這將有助於降低成本。

Actually this kind of thing will incur the design architecture difference and changes.

實際上這種事情會引起設計架構的差異和變化。

So we are working with the customer.

所以我們正在與客戶合作。

I cannot give a very certain date and which year that it will be in the market and then compare with the conventional packaging method.

我不能給出一個非常確定的日期以及它將在哪一年上市，然後與傳統的包裝方法進行比較。

But our analyses show that in any year when we introduce this kind of technology and this kind of new approaches, it certainly will be better in performance and in cost as compared with conventional packages.

但是我們的分析表明，在我們引入這種技術和這種新方法的任何一年，與傳統封裝相比，它的性能和成本肯定會更好。

Whether it will help us to increase market segment share in mobile, certainly we hope so.

它是否會幫助我們增加移動市場的份額，我們當然希望如此。

But I cannot give you a number.

但我不能給你一個數字。

But if you could -- sorry.

但如果可以的話——對不起。

Just particularly at 7-nanometer would you see new customers will adopt TSMC's 7-nanometer together with InFO at this stage?

尤其是在 7 納米，您會看到新客戶在這個階段會採用台積電的 7 納米和 InFO 嗎？

We are working with customers.

我們正在與客戶合作。

That's all I can answer your questions.

我只能回答你的問題。

Okay.

好的。

So the second quarter our utilization rate for the 16-nanometer decreasing?

那麼第二季度我們對 16 納米的利用率會下降嗎？

Decline.

衰退。

No.

不。

That's it.

而已。

Hi.

你好。

I can add some comment on 16-nanometer.

我可以對 16 納米添加一些評論。

We are ramping at a very fast speed on 16-nanometer across the whole year.

我們全年都在以非常快的速度在 16 納米上發展。

So the second-quarter utilization for 16-nanometer will be much higher than first quarter.

因此，第二季度 16 納米的利用率將遠高於第一季度。

All right.

好的。

So we will go to the next caller on the line.

因此，我們將轉到線路上的下一個呼叫者。

Operator, please help.

接線員，請幫忙。

Brett Simpson, Arete.

布雷特辛普森，阿雷特。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I just had a quick question on 28-nanometer.

我剛剛有一個關於 28 納米的快速問題。

We saw a nice recovery there in Q1, but you have a lot of 28-nanometer customers migrating to 16-nanometer going into second half 2016.

我們在第一季度看到了不錯的複蘇，但是到 2016 年下半年，有很多 28 納米客戶遷移到 16 納米。

So how do you see 28-nanometer outlook as you start to see this big shift in mobile, low-end smartphones, gaming?

那麼，當您開始看到移動、低端智能手機和遊戲的巨大轉變時，您如何看待 28 納米的前景？

What impact do you think that has in your 28-nanometer outlook and what it is might backfill that 28-nanometer node?

你認為這對你的 28 納米前景有什麼影響，以及它可能會回填 28 納米節點嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So, Brett, your question is even if we are seeing very good recovery of 28-nanometer in the first quarter, but thinks a lot of the customers' products will be migrating to 16-nanometer in the second half.

所以，布雷特，你的問題是，即使我們在第一季度看到 28 納米的複蘇非常好，但認為很多客戶的產品將在下半年遷移到 16 納米。

You are asking us what kind of applications or business we can have to sell 28-nanometer in second half of the year.

您是在問我們，我們可以在下半年銷售 28 納米的什麼樣的應用程序或業務。

Is that your question?

那是你的問題嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

And whether you think 28-nanometer can maintain these revenue levels.

以及您是否認為 28 納米可以維持這些收入水平。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer the question.

讓我回答這個問題。

Actually, he asked whether this 28-nanometer, the strong demand can continue or not because of smartphones adopting the 16-nanometer technology quickly.

實際上，他問的是，由於智能手機迅速採用了 16 納米技術，這種 28 納米的強勁需求能否持續下去。

Actually that in the smartphone we have high-end smartphone, mid and low-end smartphone.

實際上，在智能手機中，我們有高端智能手機、中低端智能手機。

For the high-end smartphone moving to the 16-nanometer, it's a natural choice and they are moving very fast.

對於向 16 納米邁進的高端智能手機來說，這是一個很自然的選擇，而且他們的發展速度非常快。

Yes.

是的。

But then the mid and low-end smartphone, that demand increases, so a lot of them adopting TSMC's 28-nanometer technology.

但隨後中低端智能手機需求增加，因此其中很多采用台積電的 28 納米技術。

That's where the very strong demand comes from.

這就是非常強勁的需求的來源。

And we see that strong demand throughout this year.

我們看到今年全年的強勁需求。

In addition to that, I just mentioned that we also have the networking processors, consumer products.

除此之外，我剛剛提到我們還有網絡處理器、消費產品。

They are all adopting TSMC's 28HPC/HPC+.

他們都在採用台積電的28HPC/HPC+。

Furthermore and in the future, we saw that IoT mobile applications for the low power consumption is very important.

此外，在未來，我們看到物聯網移動應用對於低功耗是非常重要的。

And TSMC offers a very competitive platform in this area.

而台積電在這方面提供了一個非常有競爭力的平台。

So we believe that 28-nanometer demand will continue to be strong.

因此，我們認為 28 納米的需求將繼續強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And I just had an industry question as my second question.

我剛剛提出了一個行業問題作為我的第二個問題。

There's a lot of talk about the rising cost of developing chips at the leading edge.

有很多關於前沿芯片開發成本上升的討論。

How much do you think it costs your customers to develop chips at 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer compared with 28?

與 28 納米相比，您認為您的客戶開發 10 納米和 7 納米芯片的成本是多少？

And I think you mentioned 20 customers are -- you're engaged with 20 customers on 7-nanometer.

而且我認為您提到了 20 個客戶——您在 7 納米技術上與 20 個客戶互動。

Can you talk a bit about how big the customer engineering teams are that you're engaging with at these nodes?

你能談談你在這些節點上參與的客戶工程團隊有多大嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well I cannot comment on the exact number of the NRE engineering expense for the new N. Of course, each node, the development cost is higher.

好吧，我無法評論新N的NRE工程費用的確切數字。當然，每個節點，開發成本更高。

And -- but on the other hand, the chip integration is also increasing.

而且——但另一方面，芯片集成度也在增加。

Where it used to be several chips, right now is being developed by one -- in one chip.

過去是多個芯片，現在正在由一個芯片開發。

So secondly, actually, although we have -- I've mentioned 15 tape-outs, typically the first tape-out incurs the highest cost and the following tape-out doesn't -- it can be synergistic.

其次，實際上，雖然我們有 - 我已經提到了 15 次流片，但通常第一次流片會產生最高成本，而接下來的流片不會 - 它可以產生協同效應。

So indeed, customers see the 7-nanometer is a longstanding, long node.

因此，客戶確實看到 7 納米是一個長期存在的長節點。

Therefore I think the customer is willing to put into their investment resources in it for the -- for many years to come.

因此，我認為客戶願意在未來很多年投入他們的投資資源。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And could I ask a third question?

我可以問第三個問題嗎？

All right.

好的。

So maybe just -- I wanted to ask on graphics, because you talked a number of times in your prepared remarks about VR and graphics and game console.

所以也許只是 - 我想問一下圖形，因為你在準備好的評論中多次談到 VR 和圖形和遊戲機。

And there's quite a big performance jump coming as some of these customers go to 16-nanometer later this year.

隨著其中一些客戶在今年晚些時候轉向 16 納米，性能將出現相當大的飛躍。

What sort of growth are you seeing in gaming and graphics specifically at the moment this year?

今年你在遊戲和圖形方面看到了什麼樣的增長？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

VR and AR, it still is an emerging application.

VR和AR，它仍然是一個新興的應用。

So the growth rates come from very small number.

所以增長率來自非常小的數字。

So probably I cannot put into accurate number.

所以可能我無法輸入準確的數字。

Currently this application, this product is under the application software development, I think is being tried, several VRs and AR products.

目前這個應用，這個產品正在應用軟件開發中，我想正在嘗試，幾個VR和AR產品。

Many of the application software is a demo software.

許多應用軟件是演示軟件。

And both -- all the producers of the chips right now create their software development platforms.

兩者——所有的芯片生產商現在都在創建他們的軟件開發平台。

So this is at this stage.

所以這是在這個階段。

So in terms -- we just see it starting shipment, but it's yet to be a volume quantity this year for this application.

所以就條款而言——我們只是看到它開始發貨，但今年還沒有成為這個應用程序的量產。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

We will continue to have the next caller from the line.

我們將繼續有下一位來電者。

Operator, could you please have the next caller on the line?

接線員，請問下一位來電者是否在線？

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Going back to your prepared commentary where you describe smartphone unit growth, which is going to be less than your prior expectation, which is also, in my opinion, is having an adverse impact on your assumptions for semiconductor revenue growth.

回到你準備好的評論中，你描述了智能手機單位的增長，這將低於你之前的預期，在我看來，這也對你對半導體收入增長的假設產生了不利影響。

How is it going to impact your revenue expectation growth for this year?

它將如何影響您今年的收入預期增長？

Your -- the range of 5% to 10% has remained unchanged.

你的——5%到10%的範圍保持不變。

But the largest end market smartphone you have down-ticked.

但是，最大的終端市場智能手機已經被你低估了。

And then the semiconductor industry revenue is also going to be up by only 1%.

然後半導體行業的收入也將僅增長 1%。

So in that context if you could help us understand how this downtick is impacting the range.

因此，在這種情況下，如果您能幫助我們了解這種下跌是如何影響範圍的。

Do you see your revenue coming to the low end or the high end?

您認為您的收入會進入低端還是高端？

Or are you still on track to hit the midpoint of the guidance given all the programs that are coming to the fruition?

或者，鑑於所有即將取得成果的計劃，您是否仍有望達到指導的中點？

All right.

好的。

I think the question was that since we have revised down some of the growth rates, like smartphones and semiconductor revenue, etc., how would TSMC still keep our revenue guidance.

我認為問題在於，既然我們已經下調了一些增長率，比如智能手機和半導體收入等，台積電如何仍然保持我們的收入指導。

So he was saying whether we are on the high end of the guidance range or low end of the guidance range, etc.

所以他是說我們是在指導範圍的高端還是指導範圍的低端，等等。

Well on semiconductor growth, we forecasted 1%.

在半導體增長方面，我們預測為 1%。

And part of it is memory market appears to be shrinking this year.

部分原因是今年內存市場似乎正在萎縮。

Excluding memory, will be about 2%.

不包括內存，將是 2% 左右。

But our system is very complicated.

但是我們的系統非常複雜。

It's very difficult for me to describe everything for you here.

我很難在這里為你描述一切。

But the smartphone growth this year is mostly from the mid end and the low end in terms of unit growth, so is that one to reconcile for your numbers.

但就單位增長而言，今年智能手機的增長主要來自中端和低端，因此要與您的數據相協調。

Our number for this year, we maintain 5% to 10%.

我們今年的數量，我們維持在5%到10%之間。

That is nor aggressive nor conservative.

這既不激進也不保守。

It is still the same number.

它仍然是相同的數字。

Sure.

當然。

Let me rephrase the question.

讓我重新表述這個問題。

Historically you've had more content in high-end smartphone but the growth rate for low to mid range is much higher than the high-end smartphone growth rate.

從歷史上看，高端智能手機的內容更多，但中低端的增長率遠高於高端智能手機的增長率。

Would it be safe to assume that if the growth rate for the low to mid range is offsetting lower growth rate for high end, even though the high end gives you higher content?

假設中低端的增長率抵消了高端的較低增長率，即使高端為您提供更高的內容，是否可以安全地假設？

It's possible.

這是可能的。

We see the over- TWD500 phone is reducing, but the $400 phone is increasing quickly.

我們看到超過 TWD500 的手機正在減少，但 400 美元的手機正在迅速增加。

And both high end and mid end silicon content are increasing with high single digit.

高端和中端矽含量均以高個位數增長。

But the unit of the mid-end phone increases and high-end unit number decreases this year.

但今年中端手機數量增加，高端手機數量減少。

Okay.

好的。

Then I have a follow-up -- I have a follow-up to my second question.

然後我會跟進——我會跟進我的第二個問題。

Yes?

是的？

So there's been a lot of emphasis on this, on 7-nanometer and your progress.

因此，在 7 納米和您的進步上，人們非常重視這一點。

It's great to see you have maintained your lead.

很高興看到你保持領先。

But in that context should we assume that the 10-nanometer will be a shorter node?

但在這種情況下，我們是否應該假設 10 納米將是一個更短的節點？

And if so, what happens to backfilling?

如果是這樣，回填會發生什麼？

You mentioned the 90% of the equipment for 10 and 90% of the 10-nanometer equipment could be used for 7-nanometer.

您提到 90% 的設備用於 10 和 90% 的 10 納米設備可用於 7 納米。

Is that going to have an impact on your spending which ties into backfilling?

這是否會對與回填相關的支出產生影響？

Any comment or any color there would be great.

任何評論或任何顏色都會很棒。

Okay.

好的。

Mehdi's question is that he's happy to see that we have a leadership in 7 -- at 7-nanometer.

Mehdi 的問題是，他很高興看到我們在 7 - 7 納米方面處於領先地位。

However, does that mean that we will have a short node for 10?

但是，這是否意味著我們將有一個 10 的短節點？

And if it is a short node, what would happen to the common tools, this equipment being 90%-plus common?

而如果是短節點，普通工具會怎麼樣，這個設備90%以上是普通的？

What's the impact to our capital spending?

對我們的資本支出有何影響？

I think this 10-nanometer will ramp very fast, but it appears to be a shorter node than that of 7-nanometer.

我認為這個 10 納米的節點會非常快，但它似乎比 7 納米節點更短。

So the picture could be similar to our 20 and 16.

所以圖片可能類似於我們的 20 和 16。

And also we anticipated before enough that we try to maximize the common tools from 10-nanometer to 7-nanometer.

而且我們之前也有足夠的預期，我們會嘗試將常用工具從 10 納米最大化到 7 納米。

Therefore this is 95% is in -- is by design so that when the 10-nanometer, after three years, it reduces, the tool can be readily expanded into the capacity for 7-nanometer ramp.

因此，這是 95% 的設計，因此當 10 納米在三年後縮小時，該工具可以很容易地擴展到 7 納米斜坡的能力。

The impact to spending.

對支出的影響。

The question is impact spending?

問題是影響支出？

Impact to our capital spending.

對我們的資本支出的影響。

That has been -- long been planned into our capital expense.

這已經 - 長期計劃在我們的資本支出中。

It's an integrated number what we offer to you.

這是我們為您提供的綜合號碼。

Okay.

好的。

So now we come back to the floor.

所以現在我們回到地板上。

And the next one will be from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一位將來自瑞銀集團，Bill Lu。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Going back to InFO.

回到信息。

I'm trying to figure out when this might broaden out.

我試圖弄清楚什麼時候可能會擴大。

And I've spoken to a couple of your customers and maybe some of the backend players.

我已經和你們的幾個客戶談過了，也許還有一些後端玩家。

And what I'm hearing pretty consistently is cost and the fact that this is TSMC-proprietary.

我一直聽到的是成本以及這是台積電專有的事實。

Other than that, people seem to love it.

除此之外，人們似乎喜歡它。

I know you're working very hard on cost.

我知道你在成本方面非常努力。

In terms of this being TSMC-proprietary, I'm wondering what you are telling your customers to convince them.

就這是台積電專有而言，我想知道您要告訴客戶什麼來說服他們。

And I think it looks to me like it's going to be TSMC with InFO, everybody else with some sort of other planar technology.

而且我認為在我看來它將是擁有 InFO 的台積電，其他所有人都擁有某種其他平面技術。

Is that the way that you see it developing?

你認為它是這樣發展的嗎？

And number two is would you consider possibly licensing InFO, because we've certainly seen success stories in terms of licensing in semiconductors.

第二個是您是否考慮許可 InFO，因為我們當然已經看到了半導體許可方面的成功案例。

I think that would help out your customers.

我認為這會幫助你的客戶。

Do you just want to give your thoughts on that?

你只是想就此發表你的想法嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

We developed InFO technology that -- with much lower cost than the CoWoS that we introduced earlier.

我們開發的 InFO 技術比我們之前介紹的 CoWoS 成本低得多。

And InFO give advantage, as I said in the presentation.

正如我在演示文稿中所說，InFO 提供了優勢。

We have mentioned in the last quarter that we only focus -- right now we only focus on the few high-volume customers because we start to ramp it up.

我們在上個季度提到我們只關注 - 現在我們只關注少數大批量客戶，因為我們開始增加它。

And I also said in the presentation that we are working on the yield improvement and the cost reduction, thus meaning that today we still have some improvement ongoing.

我還在演講中說，我們正在努力提高產量和降低成本，這意味著今天我們仍有一些改進正在進行中。

And once we complete it in our volume production this year, we believe it will be very competitive.

一旦我們在今年完成量產，我們相信它將非常具有競爭力。

However, in every technology node we work with OSAT people and to better serve our customers.

但是，在每個技術節點中，我們都與 OSAT 人員合作，以更好地服務於我們的客戶。

For now we also see that the cooperation between TSMC and backend people.

目前我們也看到了台積電和後端人員的合作。

But for this year, before we complete the volume production and ready for other consideration, this year we only focus on our own -- bringing up this InFO volume production.

但是今年，在我們完成量產並準備其他考慮之前，今年我們只專注於我們自己——提出這個 InFO 量產。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

I'm guess I'm just wondering what happens beyond this year as you start thinking about more customers.

我想我只是想知道今年以後會發生什麼，因為你開始考慮更多的客戶。

We will tell you that next time.

下次我們會告訴你的。

Okay.

好的。

So my second question was what Mehdi just asked, but maybe I'll just follow up.

所以我的第二個問題是 Mehdi 剛剛問的，但也許我會跟進。

If it turns out that -- 10-nanometer turns out to be a little bit smaller than what you expected previously but 7 turns out to be much bigger and you only spent TWD1b in the first quarter this year versus your guidance for the year, $9b to $10b, is it a possibility that maybe the CapEx becomes very backend-loaded or some of it gets pushed out into 2017?

如果事實證明 - 10 納米比您之前預期的要小一點，但 7 會大得多，而且您今年第一季度只花費了 1 億新台幣，而今年的指導是 9 美元b 到 10b 美元，是否有可能資本支出變得非常後端負載，或者其中一些被推到 2017 年？

It is true and we spent much less in the first half.

這是真的，我們在上半年的花費要少得多。

And this year the CapEx will be very much backend-loaded, the reason being because we are preparing the capacity for 10- and 7-nanometer, so spending gets mostly spent in second half of the year.

而今年的資本支出將非常依賴於後端，原因是因為我們正在為 10 納米和 7 納米做準備，所以支出主要用於下半年。

All right.

好的。

The next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So a very quick follow-on on Bill's question on InFO.

因此，非常快速地跟進比爾關於 InFO 的問題。

So what will be the margin impact to your corporate margin from the InFO business when you get to a mass production?

那麼，當您進行大規模生產時，InFO 業務對您的公司利潤率有何影響？

Since the InFO volume is still small for this year, and as C.C. was mentioning above $100m by the fourth quarter, compared to the total revenue it's still small.

由於今年的 InFO 量仍然很小，而且作為 C.C.到第四季度提到超過 1 億美元，與總收入相比仍然很小。

So it will have very small dilution to this year's corporate average margin.

因此，它對今年的企業平均利潤率的稀釋度非常小。

Okay.

好的。

So as yet the margin is slightly below corporate average, even it is small?

那麼到目前為止，利潤率還略低於企業平均水平，甚至還很小？

It is below.

它在下面。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And my second question regarding the EUV adoption.

我的第二個問題是關於 EUV 的採用。

So is it like it is already a done deal that you will adopt EUV at 5-nanometer, so the production timing is sometime like 2020?

那麼，您將採用 5 納米的 EUV 是否已經達成共識，因此生產時間大約是 2020 年？

So from now to 2020, do you think the capital intensity will increase?

那麼從現在到2020年，您認為資本密集度會增加嗎？

I know the Company gave guidance before that the new node will be 30% -- 35%.

我知道公司之前給出了指導，新節點將是 30% - 35%。

But in terms of the ratio, how do you think your growth, especially when you mass produce 7-nanometer?

但就比例而言，您如何看待您的增長，尤其是當您量產 7 納米時？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well I'll try to answer what I heard from you.

好吧，我會試著回答我從你那裡聽到的。

Yes, we plan to use EUV on our 5-nanometer.

是的，我們計劃在我們的 5 納米上使用 EUV。

And we have already three EUV tools on the floor and the fourth is coming.

我們已經準備好三個 EUV 工具，第四個即將到來。

So all these are using actively for the development.

所以所有這些都在積極地用於開發。

So until 2020, when N5 is currently planned into production, yes, it will be adopted.

所以直到 2020 年，當 N5 目前計劃投產時，是的，它將被採用。

But just to remind you that in -- if you think about CapEx, don't think about everything we're going to change to EUV.

但只是提醒您，如果您考慮資本支出，請不要考慮我們將要更改為 EUV 的所有內容。

There are 80 layers and only a 10 -- there are about 50/60 if you discount multiple patterning.

有 80 層，只有 10 層——如果你不考慮多重圖案，大約有 50/60。

Only the 10 of them roughly will use EUV.

大概只有 10 家會使用 EUV。

So a lot of tools still be able to common tools.

所以很多工具還是可以通用的工具。

So did I answer your question?

那我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I just want to clarify because I thought the quadruple patterning or multi-patterning will cause a lot of CapEx.

所以我只想澄清一下，因為我認為四重模式或多重模式會導致大量資本支出。

But also you mentioned that you will use a common tool strategy to reduce the CapEx.

但您也提到您將使用通用工具策略來減少資本支出。

So just mainly in terms of CapEx, in terms of absolute versus $10b level or in terms of capital ratio versus 35%, in the coming four years do you think you will increase or decrease?

因此，主要就資本支出而言，就絕對值與 10b 美元水平或資本比率與 35% 而言，您認為未來四年您會增加還是減少？

So that was essentially my question.

所以這基本上是我的問題。

Cannot be so specific as you said.

不能像你說的那麼具體。

But in general speaking, conversion of tool is cheaper than buying a new tool.

但總的來說，轉換工具比購買新工具便宜。

So more conversion is beneficial to the CapEx.

所以更多的轉換有利於資本支出。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

The next question will be a follow-up from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將是瑞士信貸蘭迪艾布拉姆斯的後續問題。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for fitting me back in.

謝謝你讓我重新適應。

For the second half you mentioned a lot of the ramp will be 16-nanometer, which is still a relatively new node.

對於下半年你提到的很多斜坡將是 16 納米，這仍然是一個相對較新的節點。

In the second quarter you're already at 49% to 51% gross margin.

在第二季度，您的毛利率已經達到 49% 到 51%。

I'm curious, with further growth to come from that project, if 16 is approaching corporate average and we could get further leverage to the model in the second half from that.

我很好奇，隨著該項目的進一步增長，如果 16 接近企業平均水平，我們可以在下半年進一步利用該模型。

For this year, 16-nanometer profit margin is improving as we have much higher volume.

今年，16 納米的利潤率正在提高，因為我們的產量要高得多。

But it's still below corporate average this year.

但今年仍低於企業平均水平。

We expect the 16-nanometer will get close to corporate average by second half of 2017.

我們預計 16 納米將在 2017 年下半年接近企業平均水平。

Okay.

好的。

I guess for second half 2015, net out the ramp of 2016 still below corporate, can we get some incremental leverage from that filling up utilization that we normally see?

我想在 2015 年下半年，淨出 2016 年仍低於公司的增長，我們能否從我們通常看到的填滿利用率中獲得一些增量槓桿？

Like from the first half to the second half if there's a potential for further margin expansion, would we normally get pick-up from utilization improving?

就像從上半年到下半年，如果有進一步擴大利潤率的潛力，我們通常會從利用率提高中得到回升嗎？

Our utilization will be better in the second half.

下半年我們的利用率會更好。

That's number one.

那是第一名。

And we have other technologies who have high utilization with very good profit margins.

我們還有其他技術利用率很高，利潤率很高。

So that's the next issue.

所以這是下一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The second question I want to ask, you've mentioned, Mark, in your prepared remarks about the server opportunity and development moving on software applications.

我想問的第二個問題，馬克，你在準備好的關於服務器機會和軟件應用程序開發的評論中提到了。

If you could think about for your technology when you think we start to get the first volume work and, say, get to 1% or 2% of revenue, if that's timed, say, around 7-nanometer or you think it'll take more time, it might be further out?

如果您認為我們開始完成第一批工作並獲得 1% 或 2% 的收入時，您可以考慮您的技術，如果時間安排在 7 納米左右，或者您認為需要更多的時間，它可能會更遠？

We think it's on 7-nanometer that we will see significant inroad.

我們認為，我們將在 7 納米上看到重大進展。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

We need to go back to the line.

我們需要回到線路上。

Operator, could you please have the next caller on the line?

接線員，請問下一位來電者是否在線？

Steven Pelayo, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的史蒂文·佩拉約。

Yes.

是的。

Just first a follow-up there.

只是首先在那裡跟進。

On capital spending you mentioned it being backend-loaded this year.

關於資本支出，您提到今年它被後端加載。

I'm curious, does that, from a run rate basis, really start to suggest that may happen in 2017 or do you think 35% of sales is a normalized CapEx level even though you're getting high reuse rate at 16 today but maybe not so high at 10-nanometer before 7 kicks in?

我很好奇，從運行率的基礎上看，這是否真的開始暗示這可能會在 2017 年發生，或者你認為 35% 的銷售額是正常化的資本支出水平，即使你今天獲得了 16 的高重用率，但也許在 7 開始之前，在 10 納米處不是那麼高嗎？

So CapEx to sales next year, I'm seeing the 35% range.

因此，明年資本支出與銷售額之間的關係，我看到了 35% 的範圍。

What do you think?

你怎麼看？

All right.

好的。

The question is this year's CapEx is backend-loaded like 35 to 65.

問題是今年的資本支出是 35 到 65 的後端負載。

Would the same pattern, a similar pattern in 2017?

2017年會出現同樣的模式，類似的模式嗎？

And what will be our capital to -- CapEx-to-sales ratio next year?

明年我們的資本支出與銷售額的比率將是多少？

I probably cannot tell about the 2017, whether it's going to be frontend-loaded or backend-loaded.

我可能無法說出 2017 年是前端加載還是後端加載。

But in terms of capital intensity, we have gone through this high-intensity period since last five years and it has come down to mid-30 range.

但就資本密集度而言，我們從過去五年開始經歷了這個高強度時期，現在已經下降到 30 年左右。

And we believe this 30% to 35% range will be for the next few years.

我們相信這 30% 到 35% 的範圍將在未來幾年保持。

Okay.

好的。

Excellent.

出色的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In your 20-F filing this week we see that your largest customer fell from 21% of revenues to 16% of revenues.

在您本週提交的 20-F 文件中，我們看到您最大的客戶從收入的 21% 下降到收入的 16%。

You obviously made it up with some other customers and with good growth last year.

顯然，您與其他一些客戶取得了成功，並且去年增長良好。

But I guess my question is expectations as you go through 2016, do you -- do we have to worry about that kind of significant decline in your largest customers continuing?

但我想我的問題是您對 2016 年的預期，您是否需要擔心您的最大客戶繼續大幅下降？

All right.

好的。

The question is we used to have a very big customer that accounted for 21% of our revenue last year and this year is probably in the mid teens.

問題是我們曾經有一個非常大的客戶，去年占我們收入的 21%，而今年可能是十幾歲。

What will be in the future?

未來會怎樣？

What is the percentage drop?

下降百分比是多少？

What's the impact?

有什麼影響？

Yes.

是的。

Just to clarify a little bit.

只是為了澄清一點。

I think it was in 2014 it was 21% of revenues.

我認為它在 2014 年佔收入的 21%。

2015 it was 16% of revenues.

2015 年佔收入的 16%。

I'm curious if you've any concern over that trend continuing.

我很好奇你是否擔心這種趨勢的持續。

Could they fall to single-digit percentage of revenues?

他們會下降到收入的個位數百分比嗎？

Well we will support our customers fully and let them grow.

好吧，我們將全力支持我們的客戶，讓他們成長。

All right.

好的。

I think, Steven, I think we have answered your questions.

我想，史蒂文，我想我們已經回答了你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Operator, could you please have the next caller on the line?

接線員，請問下一位來電者是否在線？

Donald Lu, Goldman Sachs.

唐納德·盧，高盛。

Hi.

你好。

I have a question on 28.

我有一個關於 28 的問題。

I think the conventional wisdom is that 28 will be a long and a very strong node.

我認為傳統觀點認為 28 將是一個長且非常強大的節點。

But I checked in Q4 last year, 28, it's only maybe less than 5% higher than 65-nanometer at the same stage of the node.

但是我在去年的第四季度，28 年查了一下，在節點的同一階段，它只比 65 納米高出不到 5%。

So my question is have you done any study to see how much bigger 28 will be for the next few years relative to 65?

所以我的問題是，你有沒有做過任何研究，看看未來幾年 28 相對於 65 會大多少？

And the reason I ask this is a lot of your competitors are actually increasing CapEx this year for 28.

我問這個的原因是你的很多競爭對手今年實際上將資本支出增加了 28 個。

So I'm afraid that we might have a price war.

所以我擔心我們可能會打價格戰。

Okay.

好的。

Donald's question is that 28-nanometer last quarter, 4Q 2015, which I think we said it was 25% of our revenue, and he said that this is only 5 percentage points higher than 65-nanometer at the same stage.

Donald 的問題是 28 納米上個季度，2015 年第四季度，我認為我們說它占我們收入的 25%，他說這僅比同一階段的 65 納米高 5 個百分點。

So since many of our competitors are building up capacity for 28-nanometer, Donald is asking us how big can 28-nanometer really be and whether we will have a price war.

因此，由於我們的許多競爭對手都在建立 28 納米的產能，唐納德問我們 28 納米到底能有多大，以及我們是否會打價格戰。

Well I cannot be too specifically for the quantity, but I say that we saw the strong demand that's due to TSMC's technology very competitive.

好吧，我不能太具體地談論數量，但我說我們看到了強勁的需求，這是由於台積電的技術非常具有競爭力。

And for this year that the mid/low-end smartphone increased a lot.

而今年，中低端智能手機增長了很多。

And then we also developed a very competitive low-power technology which we think is much better than our competitor.

然後我們還開發了一種非常有競爭力的低功耗技術，我們認為它比我們的競爭對手要好得多。

And so we continue to have confidence that we will continue to have strong demand and hold our market share.

因此，我們繼續有信心，我們將繼續擁有強勁的需求並保持我們的市場份額。

But in the next two years, if you look out, compared to 65, do you think 25 -- 28-nanometer will have 10% more revenue than 65 at the same stage after launch, or it's 5%, 10% or 15%?

但未來兩年，如果你看，相比65，你認為25——28納米在推出後的同階段收入會比65多10%，還是5%、10%或15%？ ?

Is there a number that we can use in our model, approximately?

我們可以在我們的模型中使用一個數字嗎？

Donald, this is Elizabeth.

唐納德，這是伊麗莎白。

Let me answer your question.

讓我回答你的問題。

This percentage basically is not directly comparable because the base is different.

這個百分比基本上是不能直接比較的，因為基數不同。

65-nanometer 30% back in, say, 2012 is a much smaller number than 28% -- 28-nanometer at 30% in today's number.

例如，2012 年的 65 納米 30% 比 28% 的數字要小得多——今天的 28 納米為 30%。

In fact, if you look at same stage, say, 65-nanometer after five years and 28-nanometer after five years, 28-nanometer in terms of dollar is almost twice as big as 65 in terms of dollar

事實上，如果你看同一階段，比如五年後的 65 納米和五年後的 28 納米，以美元計算的 28 納米幾乎是以美元計算的 65 的兩倍

Actually, I'm sorry, I was -- I'm comparing if I compared 65-nanometer revenue, absolute numbers of all the foundries I can find, versus the same foundries, total 28-nanometer revenue.

實際上，我很抱歉，我是在比較 65 納米的收入，我能找到的所有代工廠的絕對數量，與相同的代工廠，28 納米的總收入。

So the total 28-nanometer revenue in Q4 last year was only 5% higher than 65-nanometer, total 65-nanometer revenue at the same stage after launch.

所以去年第四季度28納米的總收入僅比65納米高出5%，65納米在推出後的同一階段總收入。

So you are ask -- you are talking about market share percentage not revenue percentage?

所以你問 - 你是在談論市場份額百分比而不是收入百分比？

Exactly.

確切地。

Not the market share but also the total absolute amount.

不是市場份額，而是絕對總量。

Because there I think TSMC has much more information than us in terms of looking forward, in terms of tape-outs, etc.

因為我認為台積電在展望、流片等方面比我們有更多的信息。

So do you think 28-nanometer is a long node or stronger node than 65 and how much.

那麼你認為28納米是長節點還是比65強節點呢？

And for the whole market and not just (inaudible).

對於整個市場，而不僅僅是（聽不清）。

Well let me answer the question again.

好吧，讓我再次回答這個問題。

It seems to me that you are not so confident on the 28-nanometers demand, but it is strong.

在我看來，您對 28 納米的需求並不那麼自信，但它是強大的。

And this is a very sweet node, offered with low power but very competitive performance.

這是一個非常好的節點，提供低功耗但非常有競爭力的性能。

And the cost structure is also good.

而且成本結構也不錯。

So I want to say again that TSMC, the technology is very competitive.

所以我想再次說台積電，技術很有競爭力。

And we will hold our market share and we have confidence on it.

我們將保持我們的市場份額，我們對此充滿信心。

Let me add some comment to this one.

讓我對此添加一些評論。

Donald, I think you are trying to figure out how big is 28 versus the 65-nanometer.

唐納德，我認為您正在嘗試弄清楚 28 與 65 納米有多大。

Is that what you're asking for?

這是你要求的嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

That is for the whole market.

那是針對整個市場的。

Yes.

是的。

That's my question.

那是我的問題。

Okay.

好的。

I think I don't know about the TAM, but for us, if I look at the number, 65-nanometer revenue versus 28-nanometer revenue, if you look at high -- the peak revenue versus 65-nanometer, I would think that 28-nanometer revenue is much bigger than 65-nanometer at the same stage.

我想我不知道 TAM，但對我們來說，如果我看一下數字，65 納米收入與 28 納米收入，如果你看高 - 峰值收入與 65 納米，我想同階段28納米的收益遠大於65納米。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, I will follow up with Elizabeth on the question.

是的，我會跟進伊麗莎白的問題。

Yes, I think the 28 is ramped up very fast and dropped very quickly too for the whole industry.

是的，我認為對於整個行業來說，28 的增長速度非常快，下降的速度也非常快。

So the question is going forward it may -- whether it will be bigger, how much bigger it will be versus 65.

所以問題是它可能會向前發展——它是否會更大，它會比 65 大多少。

But I will follow up.

但我會跟進。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Next question comes from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Just a follow up on the InFO question.

只是對信息問題的跟進。

I think I feel just ask about collaboration, with InFO, OSAT are likely candidates.

我想我覺得只是問一下合作，InFO，OSAT 可能是候選人。

But I would like to hear or learn from you about the competition for the InFO or InFO-like.

但我想听聽或向您了解有關 InFO 或 InFO-like 的競爭。

Are you seeing -- is there any close competitor who can do InFO production as what TSMC is doing in the near term?

您是否看到 - 是否有任何緊密的競爭對手可以像台積電在短期內所做的那樣進行 InFO 生產？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Well there is a lot of fan-out technology available today.

那麼今天有很多扇出技術可用。

TSMC developed the InFO because of -- we developed technology that we have some certain advantages.

台積電開發 InFO 是因為我們開發了具有某些優勢的技術。

Just like I mentioned, we have single thickness that's suitable for your smartphone, because today's smartphone needed to be thinner and thinner.

就像我提到的，我們有適合您的智能手機的單一厚度，因為今天的智能手機需要越來越薄。

And also that we found out our approaches can give benefit or advantage for the higher bandwidth that which is important for the smartphone for all the applications also.

而且我們發現我們的方法可以為更高的帶寬帶來好處或優勢，這對於智能手機的所有應用程序也很重要。

So we believe among all fan-out technologies, TSMC's InFO is the best.

所以我們相信在所有扇出技術中，台積電的 InFO 是最好的。

And when we ramp it up, that will be the highest volume of fan-out technology in the industry.

當我們加大力度時，這將是業內扇出技術數量最多的一次。

But our main progress is to hear about customers to gain -- to have their product into the market, with very competitive performance and cost.

但我們的主要進展是聽取客戶的意見 - 讓他們的產品以極具競爭力的性能和成本進入市場。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So the conclusion is I think that you think probably it's a little chance for any competitor to do a similar job at TSMC to compete with you at the same customer or same application.

所以結論是，我認為你認為任何競爭對手在台積電做類似的工作，在同一個客戶或同一個應用程序上與你競爭，這可能是一個小機會。

Am I reading you right?

我讀對了嗎？

I don't want to say that, but you might be right.

我不想這麼說，但你可能是對的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

A follow up question from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

德意志銀行 Michael Chou 的後續問題。

Hi, C.C. Is there any way you can mention what other modules be using InFO as well, after transceiver, this kind of product?

嗨，C.C.在收發器之後，您有什麼方法可以提及其他模塊也在使用 InFO 嗎？

Yes.

是的。

To answer your question, today we're focused on a very limited customer with a high volume.

為了回答您的問題，今天我們關注的是數量非常有限的客戶。

But in the future, of course, it will be adopted by a lot of customers in a lot of different applications.

但在未來，當然，它會在很多不同的應用中被很多客戶採用。

That we expected.

我們所期望的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

I think in the interest of time -- sorry, there's a question.

我認為是為了時間--抱歉，有一個問題。

Sebastian Hou, in the back, from CLSA.

Sebastian Hou，在後面，來自里昂證券。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So my first one is if you look -- based on the inventory cycle, so we started to see some rush orders towards the end of last year.

所以我的第一個是如果你看 - 基於庫存週期，所以我們在去年年底開始看到一些緊急訂單。

And first quarter we also have some business upside because of the inventory restock.

由於庫存補貨，第一季度我們也有一些業務上行空間。

And now the second quarter will continue to -- you just comment that you continue to see some inventory restocking into second quarter.

現在第二季度將繼續 - 你只是評論說你繼續看到一些庫存補充到第二季度。

So that's about --this is the fifth month or fourth month of inventory restocking.

所以這大約是 - 這是庫存補貨的第五個月或第四個月。

So where do you think that most of your customers are now in their inventory cycle?

那麼，您認為您的大多數客戶現在處於庫存週期的哪個階段？

So apart from your largest customer, which are starting to bill soon, but apart from that, what about the rest of your customers?

所以除了你最大的客戶，他們很快就會開始收費，但除此之外，你的其他客戶呢？

Well what we see, the fourth quarter last year, if you remember, is people drastically reduced their inventory.

我們所看到的，去年第四季度，如果你還記得的話，人們大幅減少了他們的庫存。

We only see the restocking almost after the Chinese New Year.

我們幾乎在農曆新年之後才看到補貨。

So that's where you count the cycles.

所以這就是你計算週期的地方。

And what -- I don't see very, very -- I don't see signs of overbuild at this point.

什麼 - 我沒有看到非常非常 - 我現在沒有看到過度建設的跡象。

People are still cautious.

人們仍然保持謹慎。

So that's what we see, the cycle.

這就是我們所看到的，循環。

How long it will last, I don't know.

會持續多久，我不知道。

Depends on -- I just mentioned -- I addressed on my prepared message: even to the end of Q2 appears the inventory was still above the seasonal level.

取決於——我剛才提到——我在準備好的信息中提到：即使到第二季度末，庫存仍然高於季節性水平。

It's restocking, but at above the seasonal level of the end of Q2.

它正在補貨，但高於第二季度末的季節性水平。

So that will be four months into the building.

所以這將是四個月的建設。

But it's still a cautious condition.

但這仍然是一個謹慎的條件。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My second question is on your revenue application side, because you break down revenue into four parts.

我的第二個問題是關於您的收入應用方面，因為您將收入分為四個部分。

And one of that is the industrial and slash standards.

其中之一是工業和斜線標準。

And we've seen very strong growth for the past four years, a 27% CAGR, very similar growth to the communication category.

在過去的四年裡，我們看到了非常強勁的增長，複合年增長率為 27%，與通信類別的增長非常相似。

So I wonder, can you provide some of your expectation for the CAGR for the next couple of years?

所以我想知道，您能否提供一些您對未來幾年 CAGR 的期望？

And if you can talk about what the specific driver inside that industrial slash standard and what kind of probability is above Company average or above the other application?

如果你能談談工業斜線標準中的具體驅動因素是什麼，以及什麼樣的概率高於公司平均水平或高於其他應用程序？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Actually the industry -- industrial standard, for example, including the MCU, we include in that category.

實際上是行業——例如工業標準，包括MCU，我們就屬於那個類別。

But -- and power management in that category.

但是——以及該類別中的電源管理。

Both of those components still also used in smartphone.

這兩個組件仍然在智能手機中使用。

So when we talk about smartphone growth in the past few years, it includes some of the -- what we categorize into the industrial and standard.

因此，當我們談論過去幾年智能手機的增長時，它包括一些我們將其歸類為工業和標準的內容。

That's the reason you see the growth.

這就是你看到增長的原因。

Part of it is contributed from the smartphone.

其中一部分來自智能手機。

So what's the growth outlook for the next couple of years?

那麼未來幾年的增長前景如何？

I cannot forecast into the exact number for you.

我無法為您預測出確切的數字。

But it will be a growth situation.

但這將是一個增長的情況。

It will be still growth pattern, I think.

我認為這仍將是增長模式。

Will it be continuing similar to the communication application growth or will it be higher or lower?

它會繼續類似於通信應用程序的增長還是會更高或更低？

That's hard to predict.

這很難預測。

I hope the communication grow faster, but that's hard to predict.

我希望交流增長得更快，但這很難預測。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Okay.

好的。

So before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within three hours from now.

因此，在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起三個小時內將可以看到會議的重播。

Transcripts will become available 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供，兩者都將通過我們的網站提供。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。