台積電 ADR (TSM) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外文）歡迎參加台積電2017年第一季財報發表會及電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communication and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳訊資深總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the first quarter of 2017, followed by our guidance for the second quarter of 2017.

首先，台積電資深副總裁兼財務長 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們 2017 年第一季的營運情況，然後是我們對 2017 年第二季的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's 2 Presidents and Co-CEOs, Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei, and Ms. Ho will jointly provide our key messages.

隨後，台積電兩位總裁兼聯席執行長劉馬克博士與 C.C.魏女士和何女士將共同提供我們的關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the floor for questions and answers.

然後我們將開始提問和回答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slide in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the podium to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of our operations and current quarter guidance.

現在我想請台積電財務長 Lora Ho 女士來總結我們的營運和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Welcome to join us today.

歡迎今天加入我們。

My presentation, as usual, will start with financial highlights for the first quarter, followed by the guidance of the second quarter.

像往常一樣，我的演講將從第一季的財務亮點開始，然後是第二季的指導。

First quarter revenue decreased 10.8% sequentially but increased 14.9% year-over-year, the sequential decline reflecting mobile product seasonality and about 2% appreciation in NT dollars against the U.S. dollar.

第一季營收季減 10.8%，但年增 14.9%，季減反映了行動產品的季節性以及新台幣兌美元升值約 2%。

When we give our guidance in the first quarter, we were assuming USD 1 to TWD 32.

當我們在第一季給予指引時，我們假設 1 美元兌 32 新台幣。

However, the actual average exchange rate was TWD 31.16, which reduced our revenue by about TWD 6 billion.

但實際平均匯率為新台幣31.16，導致我們的收入減少了約60億新台幣。

Without the NT dollar's appreciation, our first quarter revenue would have been about TWD 240 billion, exceeding the high end of our guidance.

如果沒有新台幣升值，我們第一季的營收將約為 2,400 億新台幣，超出了我們指導的上限。

First quarter gross margin was 51.9%, slightly lower than the fourth quarter 2016, mainly due to lower level capacity utilization and an unfavorable foreign exchange rate, partly balanced by continued cost improvement.

第一季毛利率為51.9%，略低於2016年第四季，主要是由於產能利用率較低和不利的匯率，部分原因是成本持續改善。

Operating expense ratio rose to 11.1% as R&D as a percentage of revenue increased by 70 basis point, so operating margin decreased 1.1 percentage point sequentially to 40.8% in the first quarter.

由於研發佔收入的百分比增加了 70 個基點，營業費用率上升至 11.1%，因此第一季營業利潤率較上季下降 1.1 個百分點至 40.8%。

Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 3.38, and ROE was 24.6%.

整體而言，我們第一季 EPS 為新台幣 3.38，ROE 為 24.6%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們來看看按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。

During the first quarter, Consumer and Computer increased 30% and 1%, respectively; while Communication and Industrial/Standard decreased 18% and 5%, respectively, due to mobile product seasonality.

第一季度，消費性和電腦類分別成長了 30% 和 1%；而由於行動產品季節性，通訊和工業/標準分別下降了 18% 和 5%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看按技術劃分的收入。

Combined revenue from 16- and 20-nanometer was 31% of total wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 28-nanometer represented 25% of total wafer revenue.

第一季 16 奈米和 20 奈米的營收合計佔晶圓總營收的 31%，而 28 奈米則佔晶圓總營收的 25%。

Advanced technologies, which we define as 28-nanometer and below, accounted for 56% of total wafer revenue in the first quarter.

先進技術（我們定義為 28 奈米及以下）佔第一季晶圓總收入的 56%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

繼續看資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 659 billion, an increase of TWD 27 billion from the fourth quarter.

第一季結束時，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 6,590 億，比第四季增加了 270 億新台幣。

On the liability side, current liabilities slightly increased by TWD 3 billion.

負債方面，流動負債微增30億元新台幣。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 2 days to 47 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 44 days.

財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數增加2天至47天，庫存天數增加3天至44天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and the CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 161 billion cash from operation and spent $103 billion in capital expenditure.

第一季度，我們從營運中產生了約 1,610 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 1,030 億美元的資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD 58 billion.

結果，我們產生了 580 億新台幣的自由現金流。

We also repaid $10 billion corporate bonds and net purchase of about $7 billion fixed income securities.

我們也償還了 100 億美元的公司債，並淨購買了約 70 億美元的固定收益證券。

Overall cash balance increased by TWD 23 billion to reach TWD 565 billion at the end of the first quarter.

第一季末現金餘額總計增加 230 億新台幣，達到 5,650 億新台幣。

In the U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditure was USD 3.3 billion.

以美元計算，我們第一季的資本支出為 33 億美元。

Full year capital budget remained at about USD 10 billion.

全年資本預算維持在100億美元左右。

I have just finished the financial summary for the first quarter.

我剛完成第一季的財務摘要。

Now let me turn into the second quarter guidance.

現在讓我談談第二季的指導。

We expect second quarter demand will be weaker than the first quarter due to supply chain inventory management during the second quarter and mobile product seasonality.

由於第二季供應鏈庫存管理和移動產品季節性，我們預期第二季需求將弱於第一季。

Based on our current business outlook and exchange rate assumptions of USD 1 to TWD 30.5, we expect second quarter revenue to be between TWD 213 billion and TWD 216 billion, which represents 8% to 9% sequential decline; gross profit margin to be between 50.5% and 52.5%; and operating margin to be between 39% and 41%.

根據我們目前的業務前景和 1 美元兌 30.5 新台幣的匯率假設，我們預計第二季度營收將在 2,130 億新台幣至 2,160 億新台幣之間，較上一季下降 8% 至 9%；毛利率在50.5%至52.5%之間；營業利益率在 39% 至 41% 之間。

The margin guidance reflects a higher utilization level for work-in-process building to support a strong 10-nanometer shipment in the third quarter.

利潤指引反映了在製品生產利用率的提高，以支持第三季強勁的 10 奈米出貨量。

Also, in the second quarter, we will again need to accrue the 10% tax on the undistributed retained earnings.

此外，在第二季度，我們將再次需要對未分配的留存收益徵收10%的稅。

As a result, our second quarter tax rate will be about 23%.

因此，我們第二季的稅率約為23%。

The tax rate will then fall back to 10% to 11% level in the third and fourth quarter, and the full year tax rate will be between 13% and 14%.

第三、四季稅率將回落至10%至11%水平，全年稅率將介於13%至14%之間。

This concludes my remark, and I will turn the -- turn it over to Mark for his comments.

我的發言到此結束，我將把它交給馬克徵求他的意見。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Let me start from my message on the near-term demand and supply chain inventory.

讓我從我關於近期需求和供應鏈庫存的資訊開始。

Since all our shipments are in U.S. dollars, allow me to just use the U.S. dollar to describe our demand.

由於我們所有的發貨均以美元計算，因此請允許我僅使用美元來描述我們的需求。

We just concluded our first quarter revenue to be above our January guidance in U.S. dollars.

我們剛剛得出的結論是，第一季的營收高於 1 月的美元指引。

It gives us a minus 9% quarter-to-quarter in U.S. dollars, which is about plus 22% year-to-year growth.

以美元計算，季度環比下降了-9%，年增約+22%。

This quarter-to-quarter change in 1Q '17 was due to the seasonality of our major smartphone customer and a slower smartphone demand in China.

2017 年第一季的季度變化是由於我們主要智慧型手機客戶的季節性以及中國智慧型手機需求放緩所致。

We now forecast our second quarter revenue to decline about 6% quarter-to-quarter in U.S. dollars.

我們現在預測第二季的營收以美元計算將環比下降約 6%。

Year-over-year, this is an increase of about 3% year-to-year in U.S. dollars.

以美元計算，年增約 3%。

Together with the 1Q revenue, our first half 2017 revenue would grow about 12% year-over-year in U.S. dollars.

加上第一季的收入，我們 2017 年上半年的營收以美元計算將年增約 12%。

This is slightly higher than the 10% increase year-to-year we forecasted in our January investor conference.

這略高於我們在 1 月投資者會議上預測的 10% 的同比增長。

We now estimate fabless DOI is still high, high above seasonal exiting first quarter '17.

我們現在估計無晶圓廠 DOI 仍然很高，高於 17 年第一季的季節性退出水準。

Our second quarter revenue guidance does reflect a quite severe inventory adjustment by our customers, particularly in smartphone and PC markets.

我們第二季的營收指引確實反映出我們的客戶（特別是在智慧型手機和個人電腦市場）進行了相當嚴格的庫存調整。

However, the overall end-market smartphone demand appears stable in second quarter '17.

然而，2017 年第二季終端市場智慧型手機的整體需求似乎穩定。

We estimate that fabless DOI should approach seasonal level at the end of second quarter of '17, and demand for our products will be poised for a strong growth in the third quarter.

我們預計無晶圓廠 DOI 應在 17 年第二季末接近季節性水平，並且對我們產品的需求將在第三季強勁成長。

Given the very strong demand in the second half last year, we maintain our second half '17, this year, growth rate estimate of 5% year-over-year.

鑑於去年下半年的需求非常強勁，我們維持今年下半年 17 年年成長率 5% 的預期。

And our full 2017 growth rate target remains to be 5% to 10% in U.S. dollars, as we previously stated.

正如我們之前所說，以美元計算，我們 2017 年的整體成長率目標仍然是 5% 至 10%。

Now the forecast of overall semiconductor market growth rate compared to 3 months ago, we raised it to 7% from 4% due to a stronger memory market.

現在，與 3 個月前相比，我們對整體半導體市場成長率的預測從 4% 上調至 7%，因為記憶體市場走強。

Semiconductor, excluding memory, market growth rate remains at 7 -- at 4% this year.

半導體（不包括記憶體）今年的市場成長率仍維持在7%——4%。

We also revised foundry revenue growth to 5% from 7% due to this elevated inventory in the supply chain.

由於供應鏈庫存增加，我們也將代工收入成長從 7% 修正為 5%。

Our 5% to 10% full year growth forecast shows we will continue to increase our market share this year.

我們對全年 5% 至 10% 的成長預測表明，我們今年將繼續增加市場份額。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll hand the mic to C.C. Wei -- oh, I'm sorry, Lora.

我會把麥克風交給 C.C.魏——哦，對不起，洛拉。

As the foreign exchange rate is volatile this year, it's almost very difficult to predict, so I will make some comments on foreign exchange rate and impact to our revenue and the profitability.

由於今年匯率波動很大，幾乎很難預測，所以我會就匯率以及對我們收入和盈利能力的影響發表一些評論。

As you may all know, NT dollars is the reporting currency for our -- all our financial statements due to the fact that nearly 100% of TSMC's revenue is denominated in U.S. dollars, and about 75% of our cost of goods sold and about 70% of our operating expenses are based in NT dollars.

大家可能都知道，我們所有財務報表的報告貨幣都是新台幣，因為台積電近100% 的收入都是以美元計價的，大約75% 的銷售成本和大約70% 的銷售成本都是以美元計價的。

Therefore, the fluctuation in exchange rate between U.S. dollars and NT dollars will have a sizable impact to our reported revenue and gross margins.

因此，美元與新台幣之間的匯率波動將對我們報告的收入和毛利率產生相當大的影響。

The sensitivity of revenue to U.S. dollar/NT dollar exchange rate is nearly 100%.

營收對美元/新台幣匯率的敏感度接近100%。

That is, if every 1% appreciation of NT dollars to U.S. dollar will reduce our reported revenue by about 1%.

也就是說，如果新台幣兌美元每公升值1%，我們的報告收入就會減少約1%。

The sensitivity of both our gross margin and operating margin to the same 1% exchange rate change is about 40 basis points.

我們的毛利率和營業利潤率對同樣1%的匯率變動的敏感度約為40個基點。

That is, if NT appreciates 1% against U.S. dollars, our gross margin and operating margin will both come down by about 40 basis points.

也就是說，如果NT兌美元升值1%，我們的毛利率和營業利益率都會下降約40個基點。

Compared with the first quarter guidance made in January 12, the NT dollar has appreciated by an average about 2.6% sequentially, which negatively impact our first quarter revenue by about 2.6% and our gross profit margin about 100 basis point, gross margin and operating margin each.

與1月12日做出的第一季指引相比，新台幣連續升值平均約2.6%，這對我們第一季營收約2.6%、毛利率約100個基點、毛利率和營業利潤率產生負面影響每個。

For 2017, the second quarter, we forecast the average NT dollars will further appreciate another 2.1% sequentially, which will negatively impact our second quarter revenue by 2.1% and then reduce our gross margin and operating margin by about 85 basis point.

對於2017年第二季度，我們預測平均新台幣將進一步升值2.1%，這將對我們第二季度的收入產生2.1%的負面影響，然後使我們的毛利率和營業利潤率降低約85個基點。

Should exchange rate have stayed at a fourth quarter '16 level, which was 31.77 in average, our first quarter '17 revenue would have been 1.9% better than the actual number reported here, and our second quarter revenue would have been 4% better than we just guided.

如果匯率維持在16 年第四季的水平，即平均31.77，我們17 年第一季的營收將比此處報告的實際數字高出1.9%，而我們第二季的收入將比此處報告的實際數字高出4%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I will turn it to C.C. Wei then.

我會把它轉給 C.C.那麼偉。

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，午安。

Let me start with 10-nanometer ramp status.

讓我從 10 奈米斜坡狀態開始。

We have passed the reliability qualification on internal technology qualification vehicle and have also passed 500-hour reliability qualification on several customers' product.

我們已通過了內部技術鑑定車輛的可靠性鑑定，並通過了多個客戶產品的500小時可靠性鑑定。

N10 has been transferred from R&D to operation in both Fab 12 in Hsinchu and Fab 15 in Taichung and is ready for high volume production.

N10已由研發轉入新竹12廠及台中15廠營運，並已做好量產準備。

Although N10 technology is very challenging, the yield learning progression has been the fastest as compared to the previous node such as the 20- and 16-nanometer.

儘管 N10 技術非常具有挑戰性，但與先前的節點（例如 20 奈米和 16 奈米）相比，良率學習進度是最快的。

Our current N10 yield progress is slightly ahead of schedule.

我們目前的 N10 產量進度稍微提前於規劃。

The ramp of N10 will be very fast in the second half of this year.

今年下半年N10的爬坡速度將會非常快。

We expect the 10 nanometers will contribute about 10% of our wafer revenue this year.

我們預計今年 10 奈米將貢獻我們晶圓收入的 10% 左右。

Now let's move to N7 and N7+.

現在讓我們轉向 N7 和 N7+。

TSMC N7 will enter risk production in second quarter this year.

台積電N7將於今年第二季進入風險生產。

So far, we have more than 30 customers actively engaged in N7.

到目前為止，我們有超過30家客戶積極參與N7。

And we expect about 15 tape-outs in this year with volume production in 2018.

我們預計今年約有 15 個流片，並於 2018 年實現量產。

In just 1 year after our launch of N7, we plan to introduce N7+ in 2018.

在推出 N7 僅僅一年後，我們計劃在 2018 年推出 N7+。

N7+ will leverage EUV technology for a few critical layers to save more immersion layers.

N7+ 將在幾個關鍵層上利用 EUV 技術，以節省更多沉浸層。

In addition to process simplification, our N7+ provides better transistor performance by about 10% and reduces the chip size by up to 10% when compared with the N7.

除了製程簡化之外，與 N7 相比，我們的 N7+ 還提供了約 10% 的更好電晶體性能，並將晶片尺寸減小了多達 10%。

High volume production of N7+ is expected in second half 2018 -- I'm sorry, in second half of 2019.

N7+ 預計 2018 年下半年量產－抱歉，是 2019 年下半年。

Right now, our focus on EUV include power source stability, pellicle for EUV mask and stability of the photoresist.

目前，我們對EUV的關注點包括電源穩定性、EUV掩模版薄膜和光阻的穩定性。

We continue to work with ASML to improve the tool productivity so that it can be ready for mass production on schedule.

我們繼續與 ASML 合作，提高工俱生產率，使其能夠按計劃進行量產。

Now N5.

現在N5。

We have been working with major customers to define 5-nanometer specs and to develop technology to support customers' risk production schedule in second quarter 2019, with volume ramp in 2020.

我們一直在與主要客戶合作定義 5 奈米規格並開發技術，以支援客戶 2019 年第二季的風險生產計劃，並在 2020 年實現產量成長。

Functional SRAM in our test vehicle has already been established.

我們的測試車輛中的功能 SRAM 已經建立。

We plan to use more layers of EUV in N5 as compared to N7+.

與 N7+ 相比，我們計劃在 N5 中使用更多層的 EUV。

In addition to those leading-edge technology, we also continue to improve N16 and 28-nanometer, which are in mass production for many years.

除了那些領先的技術之外，我們還不斷改進已經量產多年的N16和28奈米。

Now let me talk about N12.

現在我來說說N12。

After we have developed 16-nanometer technologies from 16FF to 16FF+ and then to 16FFC, we further extend this technology to 12-nanometer, which will have about a 10% better performance at the same total power or 25% lower power consumption at the same speed and about 8 to 10% smaller die size compared with our 16FFC.

我們開發了16奈米技術，從16FF到16FF+，再到16FFC，我們進一步把這個技術延伸到12奈米，在相同的總功耗下會有大約10%的性能提升，或者在相同的功耗下降低25%左右。

Although 12-nanometer wire have smaller metal pitches as compared to 16FFC, we have worked with IP infrastructure partner to build a complete IP support to make sure our customers' 16-nanometer product can be successfully ported to 12-nanometer with minimal effort.

儘管與 16FFC 相比，12 奈米線的金屬間距更小，但我們與 IP 基礎設施合作夥伴合作構建了完整的 IP 支持，以確保客戶的 16 奈米產品能夠以最小的努力成功移植到 12 奈米。

We anticipate the completion of 12-nanometer development by middle of this year.

我們預計 12 奈米開發將於今年年中完成。

So far, more than 10 customer has actively engaged with 7 tape-outs being planned in 2017.

到目前為止，已有超過 10 家客戶積極參與，計劃於 2017 年進行 7 項流片。

The major applications were the mid- to low-end smartphones.

主要應用為中低階智慧型手機。

With 12-nanometer having better cost structure and better performance than our already competitive 16-nanometer, we expect to maintain a high market segment share in this N16, N12 node.

由於 12 奈米比我們已經具有競爭力的 16 奈米具有更好的成本結構和更好的性能，我們預計在此 N16、N12 節點中保持較高的細分市場份額。

Now 22ULP.

現在22ULP。

22ULP is a half node of our 28-nanometer technology.

22ULP是我們28奈米技術的半節點。

We developed this technology to address the market segment where low operating voltage are required.

我們開發這項技術是為了滿足需要低工作電壓的細分市場的需求。

Applications in IoT, imaging signal processing, GPS, WiFi and 5G millimeter wave are examples that can find good use of this technology.

物聯網、影像訊號處理、GPS、WiFi 和 5G 毫米波等應用都是此技術的良好用途。

Compared to our 28HPC+, our 22ULP offers 15% performance improvement or 35% power reduction.

與我們的 28HPC+ 相比，我們的 22ULP 效能提高了 15%，功耗降低了 35%。

It also reduces the die size by up to 10%.

它還可以將晶片尺寸減小多達 10%。

In addition, the RF performance, the cut-off frequency or the maximum frequency is also improved to 400 and the 370 gigahertz, which is used for the 5G application.

此外，射頻性能、截止頻率或最大頻率也提高到400和370吉赫茲，用於5G應用。

We expect to begin 22ULP volume production in 2018.

我們預計 22ULP 將於 2018 年開始量產。

We've enhanced the features carried by this technology.

我們增強了該技術所具有的功能。

We expect to maintain a high market share in this 28/22 technology family.

我們預計在這個 28/22 技術系列中保持較高的市場份額。

Now let me talk about the specialty technology.

現在我來談談專業技術。

Especially this time, I will cover ultra-low power, which is very important for all mobile products.

特別是這次，我將介紹超低功耗，這對於所有行動產品都非常重要。

We have offered the foundry's most comprehensive ultra-low power technology portfolio, including 55-nanometer, 40-nanometer, 28-nanometer, 16FFC and now 22ULP and 12ULP.

我們為代工廠提供了最全面的超低功耗技術組合，包括 55 奈米、40 奈米、28 奈米、16FFC 以及現在的 22ULP 和 12ULP。

All these technologies are targeting IoT, with low end smartphone, GPS, Bluetooth and other applications.

所有這些技術都針對物聯網，包括低階智慧型手機、GPS、藍牙和其他應用。

Depending on each application's performance and power requirement, the customer can choose their optimal solution from our portfolio.

根據每個應用的效能和功率需求，客戶可以從我們的產品組合中選擇最佳的解決方案。

55-nanometer and 40-nanometer ULP are in high volume production since early 2016.

自 2016 年初以來，55 奈米和 40 奈米 ULP 已開始大量生產。

So far, there have been more than 35 products running in the line.

截至目前，已有超過35個產品在生產線運作。

Meanwhile, 28ULP, 16FFC are also in high volume production.

同時，28ULP、16FFC也已進入大量生產。

In addition to those technologies, we have also developed near-threshold voltage technology in 40-nanometer.

除了這些技術之外，我們還開發了40奈米的近閾值電壓技術。

This technology can achieve power consumption below 10 microampere per megahertz active power, which is 5x to 10x lower than industry's best product for today.

該技術可實現每兆赫有功功率低於 10 微安培的功耗，比當今業界最佳產品低 5 至 10 倍。

We are working on the design enablement support for our 40-nanometer near-threshold voltage, which will be completed by third quarter this year.

我們正在致力於為 40 奈米近閾值電壓提供設計支持，該工作將於今年第三季完成。

Now let me update on InFO.

現在讓我更新一下 InFO。

First, we expect InFO revenue in 2017 will be about USD 500 million.

首先，我們預計2017年InFO收入約為5億美元。

Now we are engaging with multiple customers to develop next-generation InFO technology for smartphone application for their 2018, 2019 models.

現在，我們正在與多個客戶合作，為其 2018 年、2019 年型號的智慧型手機應用開發下一代 InFO 技術。

We are also developing various InFO technologies to extend the application into high-performance computing area, such as InFO on substrate, and we call it InFOoS; and InFO with memory on substrate, InFO-MS.

我們也在開發各種InFO技術，將應用擴展到高效能運算領域，例如InFO on board，我們稱之為InFOoS；以及帶有基板記憶體的 InFO，InFO-MS。

These technologies will be ready by third quarter this year or first quarter next year.

這些技術將於今年第三季或明年第一季準備就緒。

That's all my update.

這就是我的全部更新。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Mark?

標記？

Okay, let me share with you the last bullets, AI, artificial intelligence, and the ubiquitous computing.

好，我給大家分享最後一個子彈，AI、人工智慧、普適計算。

This is to share with you the recent development in the semiconductor industry and how TSMC positioned ourselves to ride on this trend.

跟大家分享最近半導體產業的發展，以及台積電如何定位自己以順應這個趨勢。

We are in a new era where billions of devices are connected at all times, and computing takes place at any time and any place.

我們正處於一個新時代，數十億設備時刻互聯，運算隨時隨地進行。

This is what we've referred to as ubiquitous computing.

這就是我們所說的普適計算。

For smartphone, for example, in addition to the smartphone unit growth, more intelligent features, such as voice, image recognition and AI for decision-making, will further increase its computing power and silicon content.

以智慧型手機為例，除了智慧型手機銷售成長外，更多的智慧功能，如語音、影像辨識和人工智慧決策等，將進一步增加其運算能力和晶片含量。

Given the vast established subscription base of smartphone today, it is the best launchpad for new consumer hardware and software innovation.

鑑於當今智慧型手機龐大的訂閱基礎，它是新消費硬體和軟體創新的最佳啟動平台。

For AI in high-performance computing, let me first define the HPC, high-performance computing, as the semiconductor used in data centers, servers, networking, storage and gaming.

對於高效能運算中的人工智慧，我首先將HPC（高效能運算）定義為用於資料中心、伺服器、網路、儲存和遊戲的半導體。

Artificial intelligence application and services and 5G infrastructures are the major driving force with leading-edge technology behind this HPC growth.

人工智慧應用和服務以及5G基礎設施是HPC成長背後的主要驅動力和領先技術。

For example, more than half of our customer product tape-outs with our 7-nanometer today we see are HPC products.

例如，我們今天看到的 7 奈米客戶產品流片中，有一半以上是 HPC 產品。

Recently, we are also very encouraged by the support of a major AI service provider on ARM-based processor for data center in Open Compute Project Summit this year.

最近，在今年的開放運算計畫高峰會上，一家主要的人工智慧服務供應商對基於 ARM 的資料中心處理器的支援也讓我們深受鼓舞。

Accelerators used in data center are also increasing, adopting the GPUs, FPGAs and ASICs.

資料中心使用的加速器也在增加，採用GPU、FPGA和ASIC。

We expect HPC to become our major growth engine from 2020.

我們預計 HPC 從 2020 年起將成為我們的主要成長引擎。

The trend of ubiquitous AI also shows up in many IoT and consumer devices such as robot, drones, surveillance devices, smart TV and set-top box.

人工智慧無所不在的趨勢也體現在許多物聯網和消費性設備中，例如機器人、無人機、監控設備、智慧電視和機上盒。

Ubiquitous AI will also be widely used in a fast-developing autonomous car market.

無所不在的人工智慧也將廣泛應用於快速發展的自動駕駛汽車市場。

All these require very intensive, localized parallel computing capability which drive up the silicon content.

所有這些都需要非常密集的、本地化的平行運算能力，從而提高了矽含量。

At TSMC, we work with innovators around the world.

在台積電，我們與世界各地的創新者合作。

TSMC's long-term growth engine ride on this industry trend from mobile computing to ubiquitous computing.

台積電的長期成長引擎得益於從行動計算到普適計算的行業趨勢。

The proliferation of AI demands insatiable computing capability from semiconductors.

人工智慧的普及對半導體的運算能力提出了無法滿足的要求。

As C.C. just talked about our technology updates, we are developing various technologies and innovation platforms to satisfy this industry trend.

正如 C.C.剛才談到我們的技術更新，我們正在開發各種技術和創新平台來滿足這個行業趨勢。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin in the Q&A session, I would like to remind everyone to limit your questions to 2 at a time to allow all participants an opportunity to ask questions.

在問答環節開始之前，我想提醒大家，一次提問限制在2個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有提問的機會。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and also from the call.

問題將透過現場和電話會議進行。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate that to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

（操作員說明）問題將依照收到的順序進行處理。

(Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

（操作員說明） 現在讓我們開始問答環節。

All right, first one -- the first questions will be coming from Credit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好吧，第一個問題——第一個問題將由瑞士信貸集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出。

First question, I wanted to ask about 28-nanometer, where you talked about still gaining a bit of market share.

第一個問題，我想問關於 28 奈米的問題，您談到仍然獲得了一些市場份額。

There's a couple of rival options.

有幾個競爭對手的選擇。

Intel announced 22-nanometer using the FinFET that they have on 22 and then also the Samsung-GLOBALFOUNDRIES have the FD-SOI.

英特爾宣布 22 奈米使用他們在 22 上擁有的 FinFET，然後三星-GLOBALFOUNDRIES 也擁有 FD-SOI。

And for China, they haven't been a presence but starting to ramp up.

對於中國來說，他們還沒有出現，但已經開始增加。

So I'm curious how you're viewing these other options in the driver of confidence on the 28-nanometer relative to this.

因此，我很好奇您如何看待與此相關的 28 奈米技術的其他選項。

Well, Randy, we continue to improve our technologies, so we are very competitive.

嗯，蘭迪，我們不斷改進我們的技術，所以我們非常有競爭力。

As I said, we developed 28-nanometer from time up to 28HPC+.

正如我所說，我們開發了從 28 奈米到 28HPC+ 的技術。

Now we have a 22ULP, so we are still confident we can maintain a very high market segment share on this technology node.

現在我們有了22ULP，所以我們仍然有信心在這個技術節點上保持非常高的細分市場份額。

I don't want to comment on our competitor's progress.

我不想評論我們競爭對手的進展。

Okay.

好的。

The second question, I wanted to ask about the margins.

第二個問題，我想問利潤率。

You've actually done a great job weathering 2 quarters in a row, where margin is still about 50%, and sales are down high single digit 2 quarters in a row and high margin.

實際上，您已經連續兩個季度完成了出色的工作，利潤率仍約為 50%，銷售額連續兩個季度出現高個位數下降，而且利潤率很高。

If you could take a forward look towards the second half, where we ramp up 10-nanometer and at these exchange rates since you're building WIP in the second quarter, how you expect the margin to trend if there's still some leverage in the model as we go into peak season in the second half?

如果您能對下半年進行前瞻性展望，我們將在第二季度構建 WIP 後以這些匯率提高 10 納米，如果模型中仍然存在一些槓桿作用，那麼您預計利潤率的趨勢如何當我們下半年進入旺季時？

Randy, we intend to keep structural profitability and close to 50% margin.

蘭迪，我們打算保持結構性獲利能力和接近 50% 的利潤率。

As you know, we are ramping 10-nanometer significantly starting from the second half of this year.

如您所知，從今年下半年開始，我們將大幅推進 10 奈米製程。

I remember I said last time, there will be some dilution from 10-nanometer.

我記得我上次說過，10納米會有一些稀釋。

In terms of the magnitude, our estimation is for the second half, you will have 2 to 3 percentage point dilution to our corporate level gross margin.

就幅度而言，我們預計下半年，我們的企業毛利率將下降 2 至 3 個百分點。

And do you expect offsetting that, any incremental leverage from the rest of the business to potentially offset the 10-nanometer dilution?

您是否期望透過其他業務的增量槓桿來抵消這一點，從而有可能抵消 10 奈米的稀釋？

Usually, at the very beginning stage of any technology ramp, it's difficult to find offset immediately.

通常，在任何技術進步的最初階段，很難立即找到補償。

But when time goes by, we can offset gradually as the 10-nanometer margin will also continue to improve.

但隨著時間的推移，我們可以逐漸抵消，10奈米裕度也會不斷提高。

All right, next question will be coming from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

好的，下一個問題將由德意志銀行 Michael Chou 提出。

C.C., since you mentioned before there will be only one 7-nanometer EUV customer, so are you seeing more customer for 7-nanometer EUV?

C.C.，既然您之前提到只有一個 7 奈米 EUV 客戶，那麼您是否會看到更多 7 奈米 EUV 客戶？

Yes, we are.

是的我們是。

As I've just reported, we are engaged with many customers on 7 and also 7+.

正如我剛剛報道的，我們與許多 7 和 7+ 客戶進行了互動。

So that -- did that answer your question?

那麼——這回答了你的問題嗎？

I mean, for 7-nanometer plus EUV, right, so management mentioned before, only one customer for EUV in 7-nanometer.

我的意思是，對於 7 奈米加 EUV，對，所以管理層之前提到，只有一個客戶使用 7 奈米的 EUV。

So now are you seeing -- how many customers you have?

現在您看到了—您有多少客戶？

Many.

許多。

Okay, the next question, sir, management mentioned the log scale comparison versus Intel, I think, the 2014, right?

好的，下一個問題，先生，管理層提到了與英特爾的對數規模比較，我想是 2014 年，對吧？

So since Intel came out to say that their technology seems to be 3 year ahead of the other competitor, including your company, so do you have any comment on your minimum metal pitch and the gate pitch comparison versus Intel?

既然英特爾出來說他們的技術似乎比其他競爭對手（包括貴公司）領先3年，那麼你對你們的最小金屬間距和閘極間距與英特爾的比較有什麼評論嗎？

Or do you have any comment for your 5-nanometer versus Intel 10-nanometer, potential 7-nanometer?

或者您對 5 奈米與英特爾 10 奈米、潛在的 7 奈米有何評論？

Well, that's a tough question.

嗯，這是一個很難回答的問題。

I think every company, right now, they have their own philosophy developing the next generations of technology.

我認為現在每家公司都有自己的開發下一代技術的概念。

As I reported in the foundry, we work with our customer to define the specs that can fit their product well.

正如我在鑄造廠報導的那樣，我們與客戶合作定義適合他們產品的規格。

So the minimum pitch to define the technology node, we are compatible to the market.

所以定義技術節點的最小間距，我們是與市場相容的。

But the most important is that we are offering the best solution to our customers' product roamap.

但最重要的是，我們為客戶的產品漫遊圖提供最佳解決方案。

And that's what we care for.

這就是我們所關心的。

So I don't compare that really what is the minimum pitch to define the technology node.

所以我不會比較定義技術節點的最小間距。

Just a follow-up question, sir.

只是一個後續問題，先生。

Can we say your power consumption efficiency in your 5-nanometer in 2020 will be ahead all the competitors, including, for instance, IDM?

我們可以說你們2020年5奈米的功耗效率將領先所有競爭對手，包括例如IDM嗎？

Can we say that?

我們可以這麼說嗎？

We have confidence to do that, yes.

我們有信心做到這一點，是的。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) Bill Lu 提出。

Questions for Dr. Liu.

有問題請教劉醫生。

You said that AI, ubiquitous computing will be a driver starting in 2020.

您說過人工智慧、普適運算將成為 2020 年開始的驅動力。

I'm wondering if you can talk to us about why that timing because you said that half of your 7-nanometer customers are HPC related.

我想知道您是否可以與我們談談為什麼選擇這個時機，因為您說您的 7 奈米客戶中有一半與 HPC 相關。

It seems like your customers and your customers' customers are pretty bullish right now as well.

看來您的客戶和您客戶的客戶現在也非常樂觀。

So why that timing?

那為什麼要選擇這個時間呢？

Well, look, we look at our customer tape-out at 7-nanometer.

好吧，看，我們來看看我們客戶的 7 奈米流片。

And look at our development activity in our 5-nanometer, I think that is the time frame that we -- our customer can have a strong advantage to get into that market to grow.

看看我們在 5 奈米領域的開發活動，我認為這是我們——我們的客戶可以擁有強大優勢進入該市場實現成長的時間框架。

I guess, I'm not so clear because 7-nanometer, that's ramping 2018...

我想，我不太清楚，因為 7 奈米，2018 年正在加速發展…

'19.

'19。

To 2019.

到2019年。

'19.

'19。

Yes, 2019 is the...

是的，2019年是...

7+.

7+。

7+.

7+。

And in order to accumulate huge volume revenue-wise, it takes a couple of years cooking to bring the whole value up.

為了累積巨額收入，需要幾年的烹飪時間才能提高整體價值。

Okay.

好的。

So you're saying it becomes a bigger driver by 2020?

所以你是說到 2020 年它會成為一個更大的驅動力？

Yes.

是的。

By driver, I measure by the incremental revenue dollars.

對於司機，我用增量收入來衡量。

Do you have an estimate for how much as a percentage of revenue, or a total size by 2020?

您是否估計到 2020 年佔收入的百分比或總規模是多少？

Of HPC?

高效能運算？

I mentioned last conference, it was currently 15%.

我上次會議提到過，目前是15%。

And at this point, it slightly increases this year by a couple of percent.

就這一點而言，今年它略微增加了幾個百分點。

But really, it is in the cooking from today to 2020, and we expect -- we do have a number, but currently, it's a model.

但實際上，從今天到 2020 年，它都在醞釀中，我們預計——我們確實有一個數字，但目前，它只是一個模型。

I really cannot be certain on that number's accuracy.

我真的不能確定這個數字的準確性。

But it's the trend that's picking up, up to that time.

但到目前為止，這種趨勢正在興起。

My second question is related as well, which is, it seems like every quarter, you're getting more confident on 7-nanometers, both in terms of your execution and your customers' progress.

我的第二個問題也與之相關，那就是，似乎每個季度，您都對 7 奈米變得更有信心，無論是在執行方面還是在客戶的進展方面。

I know the comment previously had been that CapEx stays relatively flat in next several years.

我知道之前的評論是未來幾年資本支出保持相對穩定。

Does that change at all with the confidence at 7-nanometers going out between now and 2020?

從現在到 2020 年，人們對 7 奈米技術的信心是否會改變？

Yes, we -- as the program development continues progressing, our confidence gets more, and our customers' confidence also gets more.

是的，隨著專案開發的不斷進展，我們的信心越來越強，我們的客戶的信心也越來越強。

So in terms of the CapEx, of course, we try to make the 7-nanometer and 10-nanometer relatively compatible; so thus, we try to maximize our CapEx efficiency when we are starting the ramp in 7-nanometer.

所以在CapEx方面，我們當然會盡量讓7奈米和10奈米相對相容；因此，當我們開始採用 7 奈米製程時，我們會嘗試最大限度地提高資本支出效率。

Can I just ask a quick follow-up?

我可以要求快速跟進嗎？

If you look at 28, which I think was the last dominant node for TSMC, that coincided with the smartphone ramp between, I'm throwing a number, it's 2011, 2015, your CapEx went from about $3 billion to about $10 billion, right?

如果你看一下28，我認為這是台積電的最後一個主導節點，恰逢智慧型手機的崛起，我拋出一個數字，這是2011 年、2015 年，你的資本支出從約30 億美元增加到約100 億美元，對吧？

But that also included a huge revenue ramp.

但這也包括巨大的收入成長。

Now as we look at HPC, I mean, to me it's a big opportunity as well, and that's over the next several years.

現在，當我們審視 HPC 時，我的意思是，對我來說這也是一個巨大的機會，而且是在未來幾年內。

But you're not seeing that CapEx to be triple, right, so what should we expect?

但你並沒有看到資本支出增加三倍，對吧，那我們該期待什麼呢？

You're talking about CapEx after 2020?

您是在談論 2020 年後的資本支出嗎？

Bill, you think we should add up CapEx, so we'll be more confident on the technology development.

Bill，你認為我們應該增加資本支出，這樣我們對科技開發就會更有信心。

Actually, I want to mention one thing is actually, as we have spent tremendous effort trying to improve the capital efficiency.

其實我想提一件事是，我們確實花費了龐大的努力來提高資本效率。

You can see the equipment generation to next generation, the conversion ratio is pretty high.

你可以看到裝備世代到下一代，轉換率是相當高的。

And we're talking about 80% of the time, people feel it's good.

我們談論的是 80% 的時間，人們感覺很好。

And now I can tell you the 10-nanometer transition to 7-nanometer, the migration compatibility is more than 95%.

現在我可以告訴你10奈米過渡到7奈米，遷移相容性超過95%。

That's the effort we have spent.

這就是我們所付出的努力。

So we believe the CapEx guidance we are talking about, at a $10 billion level, has reflected our confidence in all the effort we have put in to include the -- to improve the efficiencies.

因此，我們相信我們正在談論的 100 億美元水平的資本支出指導反映了我們對我們為提高效率而付出的所有努力的信心。

Next question will be coming from Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Roland Shu 提出。

First question to Mark.

第一個問題給馬克。

Mark, you mentioned on the ARM-based processor for HPC for data centers, HPC actually, the demand increased a lot.

Mark，您提到了用於資料中心的 HPC 的基於 ARM 的處理器，實際上 HPC 的需求增加了很多。

So do we see this same trend for this ARM-based process for PC?

那麼，我們是否在基於 ARM 的 PC 流程中看到了同樣的趨勢呢？

Yes, because Microsoft, actually, now they are Windows 10 supporting this ARM-based processor.

是的，因為微軟實際上現在他們的 Windows 10 支援這種基於 ARM 的處理器。

You're referring to Microsoft Windows 10 supporting the ARM-based CPU in the PC and notebook last year, right?

您指的是去年 Microsoft Windows 10 在 PC 和筆記型電腦中支援基於 ARM 的 CPU，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

That was very good news to us, but I'd rather not to reveal our customers' booking individually.

這對我們來說是個好消息，但我不想單獨透露客戶的預訂。

So I think we still have business to grow, and they get all the support from us and many other OEMs.

所以我認為我們的業務仍有成長空間，他們得到了我們和許多其他原始設備製造商的所有支援。

Yes, so we can assume the very strong second half momentum, definitely, we probably included some momentum for this Windows on ARM player.

是的，所以我們可以假設下半年的勢頭非常強勁，當然，我們可能為這款 Windows on ARM 播放器提供了一些動力。

Can we assume that?

我們可以這樣假設嗎？

I didn't say that, but -- yes, but they will grow.

我沒有這麼說，但是——是的，但是他們會成長。

I mean, I cannot reveal to you.

我的意思是，我不能向你透露。

Okay.

好的。

And also, same question for you.

另外，你也有同樣的問題。

22ULP, you said you are going to mass production from next year.

22ULP，你說明年開始量產。

So when can we expect this 22ULP revenue to achieve 10% of total revenue?

那我們預計這個22ULP收入什麼時候可以達到總收入的10%呢？

Oh, I did not look at that, but I -- all I can say is we start to engage with many customer, and it's very competitive.

哦，我沒有看到這一點，但是我 - 我只能說我們開始與許多客戶接觸，而且競爭非常激烈。

So I expect some of the 28-nanometers products will move to 22.

因此我預計一些 28 奈米產品將轉向 22 奈米。

When we are going to reach 10% of wafer revenue, I do not see the exact schedule yet.

當我們達到晶圓收入的 10% 時，我還沒有看到確切的時間表。

Actually, we don't separately looking at 22 and 28 because it's an extension of the technology.

實際上，我們不會單獨考慮22和28，因為它是技術的延伸。

We look at the combined revenue.

我們看的是合併收入。

We don't do -- we don't look at it separately.

我們不這樣做——我們不單獨看待它。

Okay, so going forward, that means that we will include 28, 22 as the same node?

好的，那麼接下來，這意味著我們將包含 28、22 作為同一節點？

Yes.

是的。

So how about 16 and 12, they will be also include into the same node?

那麼16和12怎麼樣，它們也會包含在同一個節點中嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, question -- next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs' Donald Lu.

好吧，問題——下一個問題將由高盛的唐納德·盧提出。

(foreign language)

（外語）

I will need to translate that first, Donald, so if I misrepresent you, you have to let me know.

我需要先翻譯一下，唐納德，所以如果我歪曲了你的意思，你必須讓我知道。

Donald's question basically is with respect to the implementation of AI in smartphones, and he's asking whether or not this increment of AI functionality to the smartphones will increase the die size of the smartphone.

唐納德的問題基本上是關於智慧型手機中人工智慧的實施，他問智慧型手機人工智慧功能的增加是否會增加智慧型手機的晶片尺寸。

It should.

它應該。

But every company have their different product strategy.

但每家公司都有不同的產品策略。

Some target to the low end, some target to the premium, they're all very different.

有的針對低端，有的針對高端，它們都有很大不同。

For the low end, still, the cost is still critical, and they want to just get the [inaudible] from the customers.

對於低階產品來說，成本仍然至關重要，他們只想從客戶那裡獲得[聽不清楚]。

And so they have different strategies, so I cannot really quantify for you.

所以他們有不同的策略，所以我無法真正為你量化。

But definitely, a certain piece of silicon will be dedicated to AI.

但可以肯定的是，某一塊矽片將專用於人工智慧。

And in the beginning, it could be a separate function, and it could be integrated, too.

一開始，它可以是一個單獨的功能，也可以被整合。

So remember, our chip size will shrink along the progress of technology.

所以請記住，我們的晶片尺寸會隨著技術的進步而縮小。

So even maintaining the chip size already is a huge capability build and its contribution from AI already.

因此，即使維持晶片尺寸也已經是一項巨大的能力建設，而且人工智慧也已經做出了貢獻。

So maybe I can follow up a TSMC's smartphone content question.

所以也許我可以跟進台積電的智慧型手機內容問題。

For this year, I think last year, last time, 6 months ago, you just commented it will increase for this year.

對於今年，我想去年，上次，6個月前，你剛剛評論說今年會增加。

And is that still the trend?

這仍然是趨勢嗎？

And can you repeat like how much it will increase from last year to this year again?

您能再重複去年到今年會增加多少嗎？

Roughly, the -- if you calculate from our share and our average dollar per phone, it's about high single digits.

粗略地說，如果你根據我們的份額和每部手機的平均美元來計算，它大約是高個位數。

And this trend you think will continue because of AI and other things for next year?

您認為這種趨勢會因為人工智慧和其他因素而在明年繼續下去嗎？

I hope so.

但願如此。

I hope it will be more.

我希望會更多。

Great.

偉大的。

My second question is on the guidance for this year.

我的第二個問題是關於今年的指導意見。

I think in January, you said 5% to 10% in U.S. dollars.

我想在一月份，你說 5% 到 10% 以美元計算。

And now the whole market, it's slowed down a little bit.

現在整個市場已經放緩了一點。

That's -- so it will be more like in the low end of that range for this year?

那麼今年的價格將更像是該範圍的低端？

No.

不。

Okay, next question will be from JPMorgan's Gokul.

好的，下一個問題將由摩根大通的 Gokul 提出。

My first question, just wanted to refer back to your comments on 10/7-nanometer being a bigger node 16.

我的第一個問題只是想回顧一下您對 10/7 奈米是更大的節點 16 的評論。

Could we also compare that to 28, which was at its peak like USD 8.5 billion in terms of revenue?

我們是否也可以將其與 28 進行比較，後者的收入最高時為 85 億美元？

Are we -- how much -- what is the degree of confidence in terms of 7- and 10-nanometer combined at its peak rate being significantly higher than 28?

我們對 7 奈米和 10 奈米的峰值速率顯著高於 28 的信心程度是多少？

And maybe also could talk about -- you talked about half of the tape-outs being HPC-related.

也許還可以談談——您談到了一半的流片與 HPC 相關。

Could we also have some idea about, is the revenue still going to be mostly mobile related or smartphone related?

我們是否也可以了解一下，收入是否仍然主要與行動相關或智慧型手機相關？

Or is the revenue also going to be more closer to the split that we thought we've seen in the tape-out side in terms of HPC?

或者收入是否也將更接近我們認為在 HPC 方面在流片方面看到的分裂？

Well, it's -- in dollars right now, to be honest, many of our customers is still working on their products with our 10 and 7. So what do we do is just to try to bring their product to the market, and how successful that still really is still yet to be seen.

嗯，現在以美元計算，老實說，我們的許多客戶仍在使用我們的 10 和 7 開發他們的產品。

So it's very difficult for us to calculate what's the business and how many wafers or how many product units their product gets to achieve.

所以我們很難計算出他們的業務是什麼，他們的產品可以達到多少晶圓或多少個產品單元。

But I can tell you that in dollar sign to us, it's a much bigger volume, much bigger nodes than either 16 and 28, okay?

但我可以告訴你，對我們來說，它的體積、節點比 16 和 28 都要大得多，好嗎？

And by -- for the same reason, how much is HPC, how much is mobile computing, I think on 10 and 7, it's still too early to say.

出於同樣的原因，HPC 是多少，行動運算是多少，我認為在 10 和 7 上，現在說還為時過早。

HPC will still be the bigger portion than you have in norm.

HPC 仍然會比正常情況下所佔的比例更大。

Okay.

好的。

My follow-up is on 7 and 7+.

我的後續工作是 7 和 7+。

Since that is additional EUV steps, do customers have to redesign the product?

由於這是額外的 EUV 步驟，客戶是否需要重新設計產品？

Does it drive more customers towards 7+ rather than 7 or you're not seeing any of that happen?

它是否會促使更多客戶轉向 7+ 而不是 7，或者您沒有看到任何這種情況發生？

They, too, have to recategorize standard cells, something like that, but the effort will be very minimum because we try all our best and work with IP infrastructure partner to minimize that effect.

他們還必須對標準單元進行重新分類，諸如此類，但工作量將非常小，因為我們將盡最大努力並與 IP 基礎設施合作夥伴合作，以盡量減少這種影響。

So it will be, I cannot say transparent, but the effort will be minimized.

所以，我不能說是透明的，但努力將被最小化。

You don't see any customers delaying their 7 plans because they want to wait for 7+ with EUV?

您沒有看到任何客戶推遲他們的 7 計劃，因為他們想等待 EUV 的 7+ 嗎？

You don't see that?

你沒看到嗎？

Well, I think the customers have their own product roadmap, and their new product introduction to the market is probably the most important thing for them to consider.

嗯，我認為客戶有自己的產品路線圖，將新產品推向市場可能是他們考慮的最重要的事情。

So whether they will delay their product from 7 to 7+, we do not see that yet.

因此，他們是否會將產品從 7 推遲到 7+，我們還沒有看到。

All right, we will now take our next question from the call.

好的，我們現在將回答電話中的下一個問題。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

The first question from the line comes from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

該行的第一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

First of all, on the HPC segment, if I look at that segment and look at chips like data center chips, server chips, this HPC segment is structurally much higher margin and much more profit in the value chain.

首先，在 HPC 領域，如果我看看該領域，看看資料中心晶片、伺服器晶片等晶片，這個 HPC 領域在結構上具有更高的利潤率，在價值鏈中的利潤也更高。

Do you think TSMC can make structurally higher gross margins in HPC?

您認為台積電在HPC領域能否達到結構性較高的毛利率？

And maybe you can discuss that opportunity.

也許你可以討論這個機會。

And just on the earlier questions of evolving customers to 22-nanometer and 12-nanometer ULP, you mentioned there's minimal upfront NRE for customers to evolve their chips from 28 and 16.

就先前將客戶升級到 22 奈米和 12 奈米 ULP 的問題而言，您提到客戶將其晶片從 28 奈米升級到 16 奈米需要最少的前期 NRE。

Can you talk a bit more about this?

你能多談談這個嗎？

Because it seems to be quite a big differentiator versus a customer going to FD-SOI or another fab.

因為與客戶選擇 FD-SOI 或其他晶圓廠相比，這似乎是一個很大的區別。

Can you maybe talk about how significant a saving this is for customers?

您能否談談這對客戶來說節省的費用有多大？

Okay, let me answer your HPC, how to capture values.

好吧，讓我回答一下你的 HPC，如何捕捉值。

Yes, you're right, the HPC products produce much more value in the system build.

是的，你是對的，HPC 產品在系統建置中產生了更多的價值。

And our customer will command more value products, and we work with our customer also will trying to get that more value along the supply chain.

我們的客戶將獲得更多有價值的產品，我們與客戶合作也將努力在供應鏈中獲得更多價值。

We -- also remember, this HPC product will not only be wafer business or our advanced packaging technology and associate with our future platform, our system integration, will also come to the service, provide to our customers.

我們——也記住，這個HPC產品將不僅是晶圓業務或我們的先進封裝技術以及與我們未來的平台、我們的系統整合相關聯，還將來服務、提供給我們的客戶。

So in the futures, the advanced packaging, we also intend to increase our value to our customer, therefore, capture more value along the supply chain.

因此，在未來，先進的封裝，我們也打算增加我們對客戶的價值，從而在供應鏈上獲得更多的價值。

Well, let me answer the question on 22ULP and 12ULP, how competitive it is and then -- versus our competitors offering the 22 FD-SOI or others.

好吧，讓我回答有關 22ULP 和 12ULP 的問題，以及與提供 22 FD-SOI 或其他產品的競爭對手相比，它的競爭力如何。

The first one on the 22ULP, this one we offer low power consumption, higher speed, and with the die size shrink about 10%, as I said.

第一個是 22ULP，我們提供低功耗、更高的速度，晶片尺寸縮小了約 10%，正如我所說。

But the beauty is our customers don't have to change anything.

但美妙的是我們的客戶不需要改變任何事情。

They can use their IP portfolio in 28-nanometer.

他們可以在 28 奈米製程中使用他們的 IP 產品組合。

The 10% die shrink is actually the optical direct shrink.

10%晶片收縮其實是光學直接收縮。

So the customer does not have to do anything.

因此客戶無需執行任何操作。

They can easily port their existing product or the new product into 22ULP and take advantage of the higher performance, most important much lower power consumption, and then put their new product to compete in the market.

他們可以輕鬆地將現有產品或新產品移植到 22ULP 中，並利用更高的性能，最重要的是更低的功耗，然後將他們的新產品投入市場競爭。

So we think it is very, very competitive.

所以我們認為這是非常非常有競爭力的。

On the 12ULP, we did shrink a little bit on the metal pitch.

在 12ULP 上，我們確實在金屬間距上縮小了一點。

But as I just mentioned, we also work with the IP infrastructure partner to lower down -- to minimize their effort.

但正如我剛才提到的，我們也與 IP 基礎設施合作夥伴合作，降低他們的工作量。

So again, this one offers a very effective path -- a cost-effective path from 16-nanometer into 12-nanometer.

同樣，這提供了一條非常有效的途徑——一條從 16 奈米到 12 奈米的經濟有效的途徑。

So we expect for this kind of advantage we offer to our customer, we still can maintain a fairly high market share.

所以我們預計，憑藉我們為客戶提供的這種優勢，我們仍然能夠保持相當高的市場份額。

All right, we will still stay on the line and take the question from the next caller.

好的，我們仍然會保持在線並回答下一個來電者的問題。

Operator, please.

接線員，請說。

Next question is from Steven Pelayo from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Steven Pelayo。

A year ago, we talked about your lead customers at 16-nanometer being on 16-nanometer for the second year.

一年前，我們談到您的 16 奈米主要客戶將在第二年採用 16 奈米。

Yet, I believe it was C.C. that said, yes, they're increasing functionality there, so the die size doesn't really change too much there.

然而，我相信這是 C.C.也就是說，是的，他們正在增加那裡的功能，因此晶片尺寸並沒有真正改變太多。

Yet this year, as we go to 10-nanometer, we get a little bit more benefit from a stronger shrink.

然而今年，當我們轉向 10 奈米時，我們從更強勁的收縮中獲得了更多的好處。

So I'm curious, what do you think of the impacts?

所以我很好奇，您如何看待這些影響？

Will a smaller die size thus require less wafers from you in the second half of the year?

較小的晶片尺寸是否會導致下半年所需的晶圓數量減少？

Or more importantly, is the ASP differential at 10-nanometer significantly more versus, let's say, 16-nanometer FFC that more than offsets any potential die shrink?

或者更重要的是，10 奈米的 ASP 差異是否明顯大於 16 奈米 FFC，足以抵消任何潛在的晶片縮小？

So could you comment a little bit about die sizes and maybe ASP differentials on 16-nanometer FFC versus 10-nanometer?

那麼您能否評論一下晶片尺寸以及 16 奈米 FFC 與 10 奈米 FFC 的 ASP 差異？

All right, I will repeat Steven's question.

好吧，我重複史蒂文的問題。

He's basically asking that our major customer this year will migrate from 16-nanometer to 10-nanometer, and therefore, he assumes that it will be a smaller die.

他基本上是要求我們今年的主要客戶將從 16 奈米遷移到 10 奈米，因此，他認為晶片將更小。

And since it's a smaller die, whether or not it will be fewer wafers.

而且由於它的晶片更小，因此晶圓數量是否會更少。

And if it's fewer wafers, whether or not the ASP increase can more than offset by the fewer wafers.

如果晶圓數量減少，平均售價的增加是否可以被晶圓數量減少所抵銷。

We don't comment on customer's die size first.

我們不會先評論客戶的晶片尺寸。

And second, I think Mark already pointed out, as we move along the path of the technology, the geometry gets smaller and smaller.

其次，我認為馬克已經指出，隨著我們沿著技術的道路前進，幾何形狀變得越來越小。

However, the content also increased quite a lot.

不過內容也增加了不少。

And you can see that from your smartphone you are using today than 2 years or 5 years ago.

你可以從你今天使用的智慧型手機上看到，與 2 或 5 年前相比。

But again, I don't comment on the customer's die size.

但同樣，我不會評論客戶的晶片尺寸。

Steven, do you have second question?

史蒂文，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Well, the second part of that first question was relative to the ASP differentials on 16-nanometer FFC versus 10-nanometer.

嗯，第一個問題的第二部分與 16 奈米 FFC 與 10 奈米 FFC 的 ASP 差異有關。

He wants to know how much more we charge at 10-nanometer compared to 16FFC.

他想知道與 16FFC 相比，10 奈米的充電費用高多少。

Confidential information.

機密資訊。

Next question is from Patrick Liao of Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理的派崔克·廖（Patrick Liao）。

I'd like to ask your view of entire year seasonality.

我想問您對全年季節性的看法。

Is this changing gradually from recent years, and the first half has become relatively sluggish?

是不是近幾年開始逐漸改變，上半年變得比較低迷？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

So Patrick's question is, what has changed in terms of our business seasonality?

所以派崔克的問題是，我們的業務季節性發生了什麼變化？

It looks like our first half is sluggish compared to second half.

與下半場相比，我們的上半場看起來很緩慢。

Your observation might be right.

你的觀察可能是對的。

This is the second year that we have a slower first half.

這是我們上半年成長放緩的第二年。

And that we, at this point, look at the -- has to do with the premium phones seasonality as I have mentioned.

正如我所提到的，我們在這一點上關注的是與高階手機的季節性有關。

And we are going to develop more customer products, hopefully, to smooth out this.

我們將開發更多的客戶產品，希望能夠解決這個問題。

But this is the current seasonality we see.

但這是我們目前看到的季節性。

Okay.

好的。

My next question would be, TSMC moved 3-nanometers fab plan to U.S. I know this is probably not the right to ask, but very curious, I assume, for many audience.

我的下一個問題是，台積電將 3 奈米晶圓廠計劃轉移到美國。

So Patrick, you are asking if we will go to U.S. to build a 3-nanometer fab?

Patrick，你問我們是否會去美國建一座 3 奈米晶圓廠？

Is that your question?

這是你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Well, we continue to look for the options on the new fab's location.

好吧，我們將繼續尋找新工廠選址的選項。

So far, the fab in the U.S. is not very optimal due to many considerations, although it's still an open option for us to choose.

到目前為止，由於多種考慮，美國的晶圓廠並不是非常理想，儘管它仍然是我們選擇的開放選項。

Okay.

好的。

There seems to be quite a few people still on the line, so we will continue on the line.

好像還有不少人在線，我們就繼續上線吧。

Operator, please have the next caller.

接線員，請接聽下一個來電者。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question is from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Two follow-ups, one on EUV.

兩項後續行動，一項是關於 EUV 的。

Can you please help us understand the extent of EUV adoption, particularly how many layers would you expect the 7-plus nanometer node to adopt EUV?

您能否幫助我們了解 EUV 的採用程度，特別是您希望 7 奈米以上節點採用 EUV 的層數？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Well, I say few critical areas, which is we used to do 2 purpose.

好吧，我說幾個關鍵的地方，這就是我們用來做2的目的。

One is shrink the die and then to do the practice for the EUV.

一是縮小die，然後進行EUV的實踐。

How many critical layers, that I cannot share with you now.

有多少關鍵層，我現在無法與您分享。

Did you say a few critical layers?

你說的是幾個關鍵層嗎？

A few critical layers.

一些關鍵層。

Okay.

好的。

And then my follow-up question has to do with the capital intensity and how you have been able to increase efficiency of equipment.

然後我的後續問題與資本密集度以及如何提高設備效率有關。

I wanted to better understand to equipment reuse from 10- to 7-nanometer.

我想更了解 10 奈米到 7 奈米的設備重複利用。

I hear Lora talking about a $10 billion CapEx for a few years.

我聽到 Lora 談論了幾年 100 億美元的資本支出。

But then, I also heard the equipment that is used for 7, 7+ is going to be pretty much the same set or they're much reusable from 10-nanometer.

但是，我還聽說用於 7、7+ 的設備將幾乎是同一組，或者它們可以從 10 奈米開始重複使用。

Can you help me reconcile the CapEx with the equivalent reuse commentary?

您能幫助我將資本支出與等效的重用評論進行協調嗎？

Okay, you're asking capital intensity and how do we reuse the tools from generation to generation.

好吧，你問的是資本強度以及我們如何一代又一代地重複使用這些工具。

I have said maybe a couple of times in the few -- coming few years, we expect our capital intensity will be ranging from 30% to 35% still is our view, okay?

我可能已經說過幾次了——未來幾年，我們預計我們的資本密集度將在 30% 到 35% 之間，這仍然是我們的觀點，好嗎？

In terms of how do we do it because capital is very expensive in the company, and that's utmost important decision in the company.

至於我們如何做到這一點，因為公司的資本非常昂貴，這是公司最重要的決定。

So we spend a lot of effort trying to -- as the generation becomes shorter.

因此，隨著世代的縮短，我們花費了大量的努力。

So that makes the equipment reuse even more critical.

因此，這使得設備的重複利用變得更加重要。

So we have invented a lot of ways trying to increase the commonality from node to node.

所以我們發明了很多方法試圖增加節點之間的通用性。

Either fix some idle or orphan tool or trying to utilize those idle/orphan tool, okay?

要么修復一些閒置或孤立的工具，要么嘗試利用這些閒置/孤立的工具，好嗎？

Through either migration or several fabs backup each other.

透過遷移或多個晶圓廠相互備份。

And a lot of innovation coming from operation people trying to reduce the CapEx we have to spend.

許多創新來自於營運人員試圖減少我們必須支出的資本支出。

And also, we are putting more focus on what's the peak capacity building.

此外，我們更加關注峰值能力建構。

You cannot follow -- just follow what customers tell you the highest demand they need.

你不能遵循——只遵循客戶告訴你的他們需要的最高需求。

You have to look at the cycle and find out what's the optimal peak capacity you build.

您必須查看周期並找出您建造的最佳峰值容量。

And once you build it, you try and utilize the capacity as much as possible, including you have sometimes you have to move product among quarters just for the purpose to utilize capacity.

一旦你建造了它，你就會嘗試盡可能多地利用產能，包括有時你必須在季度之間轉移產品只是為了利用產能。

So that are the several ways that we have been doing in the company to improve the capital efficiency.

這就是我們公司一直在採取的提高資本效率的幾種方法。

Can I just have a quick follow-up on that?

我可以快速跟進嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Just very quickly, as you would scale the InFO back-end technology, should we expect the mix of CapEx between front-end and back-end packaging change going forward?

很快，當您擴展 InFO 後端技術時，我們是否應該預期前端和後端封裝之間的資本支出組合會發生變化？

So Mehdi's question is now since we have started volume producing with InFO, what will be the mix going forward between the capital spend from the front-end, which is for the wafer, and then the capital spend for the back-end, which is the packaging?

因此，Mehdi 現在的問題是，既然我們已經開始使用 InFO 進行批量生產，那麼前端（用於晶圓）的資本支出與後端（用於晶圓）的資本支出之間的組合將是怎樣的？包裝？

Well, it is indeed our back-end capital has been increasing.

嗯，確實是我們的後端資金一直在增加。

For example, we are ramping the InFO technology starting from last year, and I didn't show you the CapEx breakdown.

例如，我們從去年開始就在加強 InFO 技術，但我沒有向您展示資本支出明細。

It's pretty high.

這是相當高的。

In the past, I think our back-end is a couple of hundred million.

過去我覺得我們的後端是幾億。

It can go up to $1 billion, and this year will be the case, okay?

可以達到10億美元，今年也是這樣，好嗎？

Okay, I'll think we will come back to the floor now.

好的，我想我們現在回到會議現場。

Now we are back to the floor for questions.

現在我們回到會場提問。

First, let's have Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

首先請來摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So my first question is on the second quarter guidance.

所以我的第一個問題是關於第二季的指導。

So Mark, you mentioned that there were some supply chain inventory management.

馬克，您提到有一些供應鏈庫存管理。

So besides the smartphone, what area do you see weakness, for example, gaming, PC, even industrial?

那麼除了智慧型手機之外，您還認為哪些領域存在弱點，例如遊戲、PC，甚至工業？

And would you also attribute that smartphone chipset weakness to your customers' market share loss, meaning lose to Qualcomm?

您是否還會將智慧型手機晶片組的弱點歸因於客戶市場份額的損失，即輸給高通？

On the second quarter weakness, smartphone is one.

在第二季的疲軟中，智慧型手機就是其中之一。

I think -- we think the PC is another one, mostly because of inventory though.

我認為——我們認為個人電腦是另一種，主要是因為庫存。

And industrial, I don't see the weakness at all.

至於工業，我根本看不到弱點。

And come to your question about the -- what's your second question?

回到你的問題──你的第二個問題是什麼？

Yes, so your customers' market share loss to its competitor.

是的，因此您的客戶的市場佔有率會流失給競爭對手。

Okay.

好的。

This is not news, right?

這不是新聞，對吧？

We anticipate this, and we are working to recover for quite some time.

我們預料到了這一點，並且我們正在努力恢復相當長的一段時間。

And all these years, recovery work is ongoing, and we already factored those factors in.

這些年來，恢復工作一直在進行，我們已經考慮到了這些因素。

And still, we expect this year, we -- overall, we should be able to gain market share overall to overcome this.

儘管如此，我們預計今年，總體而言，我們應該能夠獲得整體市場份額以克服這一問題。

For the long term, of course this customer -- the relationship with this customer gets much better, warmer now, and we are working on them -- with them on the future technologies.

當然，從長遠來看，這個客戶——與這個客戶的關係現在變得更好、更溫暖，我們正在與他們合作——與他們一起研究未來的技術。

Okay.

好的。

And also, on your HPC-related comment -- you mentioned that you are excited about ARM-based server get qualified, but does that mean that you already have said starting with -- for your 7-nanometer ARM-based server processor in your 7-nanometer customer already?

另外，在您與 HPC 相關的評論中 — 您提到您對基於 ARM 的伺服器獲得資格感到興奮，但這是否意味著您已經說過 — 對於您的 7 奈米基於 ARM 的伺服器處理器已經有7 奈米客戶了嗎？

I'm sorry, the question is...

抱歉，問題是...

Do you already have ARM-based server processors already?

您是否已經擁有基於 ARM 的伺服器處理器？

Yes, of course, of course.

是的，當然，當然。

Okay.

好的。

And my next question is to Mr. Wei.

我的下一個問題是問魏先生。

So regarding your 28-nanometer capacity expansion, I think a couple weeks ago, at your technology symposium, you said -- you mentioned that 28-nanometer capacity will increase 15% year-on-year.

那麼關於你們28奈米產能擴張的問題，我想幾週前，在你們的技術研討會上，你們提到──你們提到28奈米產能將年增15%。

But the trend is that -- I don't doubt your competitiveness of 22-nanometer ULP, but the fact is that some of your customer are moving to 16-nanometer.

但趨勢是——我不懷疑你們 22 奈米 ULP 的競爭力，但事實是你們的一些客戶正在轉向 16 奈米。

And also, your market share of 28-nanometer is already more than 90%, right?

還有，你們28奈米的市佔率已經超過90%了吧？

So how confident that you'll maintain growing another 15% in the coming year?

那麼，您對來年繼續保持 15% 的成長有多大信心呢？

Well, we build our capacity according to customers' demand, and we do it very carefully.

嗯，我們根據客戶的需求來建立我們的產能，我們做得非常仔細。

So you say that we are going to increase 15% every year.

所以你說我們每年要成長15%。

Did we say that?

我們有這麼說過嗎？

This year.

今年。

This year, this year, yes.

今年，今年，是的。

So far, I can share with you that we are still fully loaded and probably a little bit not enough.

到目前為止，我可以與您分享的是，我們仍然滿載，可能還不夠。

So we work very hard to increase the capacity to fulfill customer's demand.

因此，我們非常努力地提高滿足客戶需求的能力。

Even with China's smartphone weakness, you're building your 28-nanometer, it's fully loaded?

即使中國的智慧型手機表現疲軟，你們仍在建造 28 奈米工藝，它已經滿載運轉了嗎？

Yes, it's continued to be that.

是的，一直都是如此。

Okay.

好的。

So very quick on just one number.

如此之快，只需要一個數字。

So you mentioned that your 7-nanometer customer already exceeded 30 customers.

所以你提到你的7奈米客戶已經超過30個客戶。

So what's the customer number for 10-nanometer and 16-nanometer, respectively, currently?

那麼目前10奈米和16奈米的客戶數分別是多少呢？

Well, probably comparable to 16-nanometer but 10-nanometer is smaller.

嗯，可能與 16 奈米相當，但 10 奈米更小。

So the 7-nanometer and 16 are similar.

所以7奈米和16奈米是類似的。

Similar, okay.

類似的，好吧。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will be from Daiwa, Rick Hsu.

下一個問題將由 Daiwa Rick Hsu 提出。

Just a quick follow-up to the previous question about your second quarter demand driver.

快速跟進上一個有關第二季需求驅動因素的問題。

I think Mark mentioned about the weakness mainly from smartphone and PCs due to some more inventory correction.

我認為馬克提到的疲軟主要來自智慧型手機和個人電腦，這是由於更多的庫存調整。

And industrial tend to be stable, do you see any pocket of strength for second quarter?

工業趨於穩定，您認為第二季有什麼強勁的勢頭嗎？

I don't particularly notice, particularly the strengths that are in pockets.

我並沒有特別注意到，尤其是口袋裡的優勢。

Industrial is considered heating up.

工業被認為正在升溫。

And we have -- that's the number showing the overall second quarter.

我們有—這是顯示第二季整體情況的數字。

Okay, automotive, although small percentage, is still heating up.

好吧，汽車雖然所佔比例很小，但仍在升溫。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is, if I remember correctly, I think your 28-nanometer is a very strong node.

我的第二個問題是，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你們的28奈米是一個非常強大的節點。

And even for this year, you still constantly build up more capacity.

即使今年，你仍然不斷地建立更多的能力。

But for your 20, 16 and 10, I think capacity-wise, for each node is much lower than 28-nanometer.

但對於你的 20、16 和 10，我認為從容量角度來看，每個節點都比 28 奈米低得多。

So my question is, do you anticipate that the next 7 and 7+ will be a strong node with capacity build maybe by 2020, you will be at least as comparable as your 28-nanometer?

所以我的問題是，您是否預計下一個 7 和 7+ 將成為一個強大的節點，也許到 2020 年，您的產能建設將至少與您的 28 奈米相當？

I cannot share with you, but I certainly hope so.

我無法與你分享，但我當然希望如此。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Credit Lyonnais, Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將由里昂信貸銀行 Sebastian Hou 提出。

I think my first question is to Dr. Liu on the HPC.

我想我的第一個問題是向劉博士提出關於 HPC 的問題。

Can I follow up on that you mentioned by 2020, HPC will become a bigger driver for the company.

我能否繼續您所提到的，到 2020 年，HPC 將成為公司更大的驅動力。

Is it bigger or biggest, in terms of incremental revenue, right?

就增量收入而言，它是更大還是最大，對吧？

Well, that depends on how smartphone fare out then.

好吧，這取決於智慧型手機的表現。

It's a competition.

這是一場比賽。

I think in 2020 to '25, that's the time where they really picked up.

我認為從 2020 年到 25 年，他們才真正有所起色。

So I wouldn't say 2020 to compare with the smartphone yet.

所以我還不會用 2020 年來與智慧型手機比較。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-on on that one, is that I think that 6 months ago, that conference, you gave us some idea about the wafer addressable market revenue about HPC is about USD 15 billion by 2020.

接下來，我認為在 6 個月前的會議上，您向我們提供了一些關於 HPC 晶圓可尋址市場收入到 2020 年約為 150 億美元的想法。

I remember that time you mentioned that it's hard -- it's very hard for you to quantify artificial intelligence in the numbers.

我記得那次你提到這很難——用數字來量化人工智慧對你來說非常困難。

So I wonder the things that you talked about today, is that on top of that $15 billion or already included?

所以我想知道你今天談到的事情是在 150 億美元的基礎上還是已經包括在內？

It's part of the story, is still a consistent story.

這是故事的一部分，仍然是一個連貫的故事。

Part of the -- okay, when I talked about AI, I talked about HPC, but I also talked about IoT, automotive and smartphone.

好吧，當我談論人工智慧時，我談論了高效能運算，但我也談論了物聯網、汽車和智慧型手機。

So AI is a phenomenon, phenomenon of using more silicon in all kinds of devices.

所以人工智慧是一種現象，在各種設備中使用更多矽的現象。

Of course, the AI will require more computation in the data center and more communication in the network and storage.

當然，人工智慧將需要資料中心進行更多運算，以及網路和儲存中進行更多通訊。

That HPC is part of this AI portion in HPC application.

HPC 是 HPC 應用中 AI 部分的一部分。

Good.

好的。

And one follow -- I think it's one for Dr. Wei is we understand that your 16-nanometer, one of the major customers moving 10, and with your launch of the 12 nanometers, do you expect your 16-nanometer family with 12 next year, the total revenue, the absolute level will recover to the same level as we've seen in 2016?

接下來 - 我認為魏博士的一個問題是我們了解您的 16 奈米，移動 10 奈米的主要客戶之一，隨著您推出 12 奈米，您是否期望您的 16 奈米系列下一個 12 奈米今年，總收入、絕對水準會恢復到我們2016年看到的水準嗎？

We hope so.

我們希望如此。

But let me stress again that 12-nanometer will be used for the mid- to low-end smartphones, and we offer a way for customer to have a cost-effective roadmap for their product.

但我再次強調，12奈米將用於中低階智慧型手機，我們為客戶提供了一種方法，為他們的產品製定具有成本效益的路線圖。

Then, the most advanced premium-grade smartphone will move to the next node as we have expected.

然後，最先進的高階智慧型手機將如我們預期的那樣進入下一個節點。

Okay, follow-up question from Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

好的，瑞士信貸蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出後續問題。

This one is probably for C.C. On the fan-out, you talked about more mobile products.

這可能是為 C.C.在扇出方面，您談到了更多的移動產品。

Could you talk if that's still for the high-end smartphone or you see it moving down into the mass market versus now cost competitive with flip chip.

您能談談這是否仍然適用於高端智慧型手機，或者您認為它正在進入大眾市場，而不是現在與倒裝晶片相比具有成本競爭力。

And do you see any cases where customers are splitting the architecture now?

現在您看到客戶拆分架構的情況？

So using InFO and maybe migrating a smaller part of the die size, say the 7- and 10-nanometer, and then with InFO keeping somewhat lagging nodes?

那麼，使用 InFO 並可能遷移晶片尺寸的一小部分（例如 7 奈米和 10 奈米），然後使用 InFO 保持稍微滯後的節點？

Okay.

好的。

So far today, InFO are still used by most advanced smartphones, okay?

迄今為止，大多數先進的智慧型手機仍在使用 InFO，好嗎？

We are engaging with the customer, many, to the things you just mentioned to move into more area, including separate the die size into multiple ones to get more efficiency and lower down the cost.

我們正在與許多客戶合作，以解決您剛才提到的進入更多領域的問題，包括將晶片尺寸分成多個尺寸，以提高效率並降低成本。

That's what we are doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

But more importantly, we are moving the application into the high-performance computing because Mark just mentioned the AI and all those kind of thing will start to develop in the next few years, and we try to catch up with the market.

但更重要的是，我們正在將應用程式轉移到高效能運算領域，因為馬克剛才提到了人工智慧，所有這些東西將在未來幾年內開始發展，我們試圖趕上市場。

Great.

偉大的。

And the second question I wanted to ask, you maintained, aside from your currency, your growth assumptions for this year, but you lowered the overall foundry industry.

我想問的第二個問題，除了貨幣之外，您維持了今年的成長假設，但您降低了整體鑄造行業的水平。

Could you maybe talk about factors?

能談談因素嗎？

Was it a difference in share?

是份額的差異嗎？

Are you feeling like you've taken some share in certain applications or a view on what you expect your competitors versus a few months ago?

與幾個月前相比，您是否感覺自己在某些應用程式中佔據了一些份額，或者對競爭對手的期望有何看法？

Well, the main reason we revised our foundry growth rate is due to the inventory accumulation we see in end of Q1 and also expected it towards the end of Q2.

嗯，我們修改代工成長率的主要原因是我們在第一季末看到的庫存積累，並且預計在第二季末也會出現庫存積累。

Regarding -- we have some -- our forecast currently, however, is better than the average foundry growth rate forecast.

然而，就我們目前的一些預測而言，我們的預測優於平均代工成長率預測。

Therefore, we consider we are gaining market share this year.

因此，我們認為今年我們正在獲得市場份額。

Great.

偉大的。

And just to clarify, from this inventory correction, you think you've gained enough share to offset, say, for TSMC the impact of this inventory correction?

澄清一下，從這次庫存調整中，您認為您已經獲得了足夠的份額來抵消（例如，台積電）此次庫存調整的影響嗎？

Well, inventory correction applies to everyone, okay?

好吧，庫存調整適用於所有人，好嗎？

So simply that therefore everybody's -- the average foundry market share will drop.

因此，每個人的平均代工市場份額都會下降。

So will we, if we are not gaining market share, to be better than 5%.

如果我們沒有獲得超過 5% 的市場份額，我們也會如此。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will also be coming from a follow-up and that will be Citi's Roland Shu.

下一個問題也將來自花旗銀行的 Roland Shu 的跟進者。

I looked at your annual -- actually, on your fourth quarter report and you have the annual result.

我看了你們的年度報告——其實是你們第四季的報告，你們得到了年度成果。

So last year, your non-wafer revenue actually declined in both absolute number and also as a percentage of the total revenue.

所以去年，你們的非晶圓收入其實在絕對數量和佔總收入的百分比上都有所下降。

And even I looked at the past year from 2013 to 2015, the percentage of the non-wafer revenue actually declined from 6.1% to 4.1% last year.

即使我回顧了2013年至2015年的過去一年，非晶圓收入的百分比實際上從去年的6.1%下降到了4.1%。

But in this, actually, I think it's -- again, because in the past year, we have a lot of activity to do this 20-nanometer, 20 or 16 or 10-nanometer means a lot of the photomask tape-out of revenue made it.

但實際上，我認為這是——因為在過去的一年裡，我們有很多活動來做這個 20 奈米、20 或 16 或 10 奈米意味著大量的光掩模流片收入做好了。

So can you explain what is this disconnection with a lot of the new wafer activity, but we still have this declining non-wafer revenue in the past year?

那麼，您能否解釋一下，這種與大量新晶圓活動脫節的情況是什麼，但去年我們的非晶圓收入仍然下降？

All right.

好的。

I probably cannot link your statement about the declining revenue.

我可能無法將您關於收入下降的聲明聯繫起來。

But there are also period of time our non-wafer revenue basically the backend and EBO, those are the 2 major non-wafer revenue, it has been around 10% for many years.

但也有一段時間我們的非晶圓收入主要是後端和EBO，這是兩個主要的非晶圓收入，多年來一直在10%左右。

And with the InFO that joined the company starting from this year, we expect at least we can maintain or even a small increase on the non-wafer revenue as far as I can see.

隨著InFO從今年開始加入公司，我們預計至少我們可以維持甚至小幅成長非晶圓收入。

Yes.

是的。

But the 10%, I think that means there was probably too big a number.

但是10%，我認為這意味著這個數字可能太大了。

Compared to the number you reported, in last year it was only 4.1% of that non-wafer revenue.

與您報告的數字相比，去年僅佔非晶圓收入的 4.1%。

Can I be -- I have to check which pages you are looking at.

我可以嗎—我必須檢查您正在查看哪些頁面。

Page 80-something.

80頁左右。

80-something.

80多歲。

I will go back and check.

我會回去檢查一下。

Okay, you have the wafer revenue and the non-wafer revenue there.

好的，這裡有晶圓收入和非晶圓收入。

And also the second question is for the InFO.

第二個問題是針對 InFO 的。

I think Dr. Wei guided us for InFO revenue last year.

我認為魏博士去年指導了我們 InFO 收入。

For the last year, it was about USD 100 million.

去年，這一數字約為 1 億美元。

But how about your forecast for InFO revenue this year?

但您對今年 InFO 收入的預測如何？

I mentioned this year, it will be for the 2017, about USD 500 million.

我今年提到，是2017年，大約5億美元。

All right, follow-up question from UBS, Bill Lu.

好的，接下來是瑞銀 Bill Lu 的提問。

Two quick follow-ups.

兩次快速跟進。

One is on Donald's question on smartphone content.

其中之一是唐納德關於智慧型手機內容的問題。

In the past, you've given us the content for high end, mid and low end.

過去，您為我們提供了高端、中端和低端的內容。

Can you provide that for this year?

你能提供今年的嗎？

I can't -- I don't have that with me.

我不能——我沒帶那個。

But the similar situation than last year, I think.

但我認為情況與去年相似。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then just a clarification with Dr. Wei.

然後向魏博士進行澄清。

You have said that HPC will increasingly use InFO, I have thought that maybe a lot of HPC applications will use CoWoS.

您曾說過HPC將越來越多地使用InFO，我曾想過也許很多HPC應用程式會使用CoWoS。

Can you talk about the 2?

能談談2嗎？

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

Today, most of the HPC -- almost all of the HPC customers are using the CoWoS because that one is a very high performance.

如今，大多數 HPC——幾乎所有 HPC 客戶都在使用 CoWoS，因為它具有非常高的性能。

And I'm talking about the extent of InFO into the HPC area because that offered a lower cost.

我談論的是 InFO 進入 HPC 領域的程度，因為這提供了較低的成本。

And also, it improved the InFO's performance.

而且，它還提高了 InFO 的效能。

So it'd still be lower than -- the performance is still lower than the CoWoS, but cost effectively, it's much better.

因此，它的性能仍然低於 CoWoS，但從成本效益角度來看，它要好得多。

That's why we expect it to be widely used by HPC customer.

這就是為什麼我們期望它能夠被 HPC 客戶廣泛使用。

Okay.

好的。

Follow-up questions from Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou.

德意志銀行 Michael Chou 的後續問題。

You mentioned HPC InFO in the future.

您提到了未來的 HPC InFO。

So for very high pin count HPC product, would that still use CoWoS or do you think that you will shift to InFO entirely in the future?

那麼，對於非常高引腳數的 HPC 產品，是否仍會使用 CoWoS，還是您認為將來會完全轉向 InFO？

No, I would think it will still use CoWoS.

不，我認為它仍然會使用 CoWoS。

That's still the much better performance for very pin count in the few thousand content on those kind of things.

對於此類內容的數千個內容中的針數來說，這仍然是更好的性能。

So can we say maybe 70% to 80% HPC product will be based on InFO, new InFO product in the future?

那麼我們是否可以說，未來70%到80%的HPC產品將基於InFO，新的InFO產品？

Or do you think that maybe 50% of the HPC will be still based on CoWoS?

或者您認為也許 50% 的 HPC 仍將基於 CoWoS？

Today, I cannot do any prediction, but we are working with the customer because our overall cost structure is very important.

今天，我無法做出任何預測，但我們正在與客戶合作，因為我們的整體成本結構非常重要。

That's what we are working on.

這就是我們正在努力的方向。

And we also tried to make a lot of variation to meet the customer's requirement.

我們也嘗試做出很多變化來滿足客戶的要求。

As a follow-up for your InFO, do you think the mid- to low-end product will shift to InFO because the things at mid- to low-end product care about cost?

作為你們InFO的後續，你們認為中低階產品會不會因為中低階產品關心成本而轉向InFO？

I would expect that, yes.

我希望如此，是的。

It's not happening yet.

這還沒有發生。

But in the future, it's possible?

但在未來，有可能嗎？

It is possible.

有可能的。

Okay.

好的。

The second question for Mark.

第二個問題是問馬克。

You mentioned before you should have a higher market share at 7-nanometer versus 16, 14, right?

您之前提到過，與 16、14 奈米相比，7 奈米應該擁有更高的市場份額，對吧？

Yes?

是的？

So can we say that you can gain more market share in 7-nanometer smartphone market versus 16-, 14-nanometer in 2018 to 2019?

那麼我們是否可以說，在 2018 年至 2019 年，與 16,14 奈米相比，7 奈米智慧型手機市場可以獲得更多的市場份額？

I'm not mentioning the customers, I'm just mentioning market share.

我沒有提到客戶，我只是提到市場佔有率。

Yes, I think so, I think so.

是的，我也這麼認為，我也這麼認為。

This is -- we really have higher market share in 7 and 7+.

我們確實在 7 和 7+ 領域擁有更高的市場份額。

And those are for high-end smartphone.

這些適用於高階智慧型手機。

The mid- and low-end smartphone will still will go on 22ULP, all those low power technology to capture.

中低階智慧型手機仍將採用 22ULP，所有這些低功耗技術都需要擷取。

We have a multi-prong strategy on this to capture this year.

今年我們為此制定了多管齊下的策略。

Okay.

好的。

Questions will be coming from JPMorgan's Gokul.

摩根大通的戈庫爾將提出問題。

First question, when I look at HPC currently, unlike smartphone, like you mentioned, premiums will be at 7-nano and 10.

第一個問題，當我目前關注 HPC 時，與您提到的智慧型手機不同，溢價將在 7 奈米和 10 奈米。

All their nodes can also be driven by smartphones because of low cost or mid-end.

由於低成本或中端，它們的所有節點也可以由智慧型手機驅動。

HPC, if I use the current biggest IDM, which is probably the biggest HPC player right now, most of their capacity is leading edge and they probably have N and N-1, that's pretty much it.

HPC，如果我用目前最大的IDM，可能是現在最大的HPC玩家，他們的大部分產能都是領先的，他們可能有N和N-1，差不多就這樣了。

And they work on a very accelerated schedule in terms of capacity conversion.

他們在產能轉換方面的工作進度非常快。

So when TSMC -- when HPC becomes the bigger driver for TSMC, how do you think about capacity planning?

那麼當台積電－當HPC成為台積電更大的驅動力時，您如何看待產能規劃？

Are we going to have a lot more conversion from, let's say, 10 or 10/7 to 5?

我們是否會有更多從 10 或 10/7 到 5 的轉換？

Or are there enough second wave, third wave, even within that ambit of ubiquitous computing that could drive second or third wave for the fresh capacity that you put on?

或者，即使在普適運算的範圍內，是否有足夠的第二波、第三波浪潮可以為您投入的新容量推動第二波或第三波浪潮？

You're talking about sometimes in the future?

你是說將來有時嗎？

Let me ponder this with you.

讓我和你一起思考這個問題。

TSMC is very different than this IDM company.

台積電與這家IDM公司有很大不同。

We are in every segment in the market.

我們涉足市場的各個細分市場。

Therefore, we attack the leading edge and we capture the HPC, doesn't mean this technology later on, when the technology move, it doesn't have the usage for all other segments, let alone you talk about HPC's volume.

所以，我們攻擊前沿，我們佔領了HPC，並不意味著這個技術以後，當技術發展起來的時候，它就沒有其他所有細分領域的用途了，更不用說你談論HPC的體積了。

Volume compared with today's high-performance -- no, I'm sorry, premium phones is still smaller.

與當今的高性能手機相比，體積仍然較小——不，對不起，高階手機仍然較小。

So I don't -- we will consider the technology migration, capacity migration then.

所以我不會——我們會考慮技術遷移、容量遷移。

But I don't consider that a major change or major problem for us.

但我不認為這對我們來說是一個重大變化或重大問題。

Great.

偉大的。

My follow-up is on more near-term question, especially for second half.

我的後續行動是關於更近期的問題，特別是下半年的問題。

If I look at the half-on-half growth, it's almost like 20% going into the second half.

如果我看一下半年成長率，下半年幾乎會成長 20%。

I just wanted to understand, are we anticipating that except for the big premium customer ramp-up?

我只是想了解，除了優質客戶的大量增加之外，我們是否預計會出現這種情況？

Are we also anticipating some the inventory restocking?

我們是否也期待一些庫存補貨？

We expect inventory correction to finish in the first half and we anticipate some general inventory restocking in the second half?

我們預計庫存調整將在上半年完成，我們預計下半年會進行一些全面的庫存補貨？

Or is this primarily driven by the super cycle that people are expecting?

或者這主要是由人們期待的超級週期所推動的？

Yes, yes, we anticipate -- we try to prepare for the flexibility of the team to cope with the demand with the second half.

是的，是的，我們預計——我們會努力為球隊的靈活性做好準備，以應對下半年的需求。

So you're right, certain activity is already ongoing in the second quarter to make sure that we can deal with the needed demand in the second half.

所以你是對的，第二季已經開展了某些活動，以確保我們能夠滿足下半年所需的需求。

If I could phrase it a little bit differently, do we expect the customers who are really weak in the mid-end smartphone, et cetera, also to have a big rebound in the second half of the year, along with the big seasonality for your main customer?

如果我可以換句話說，我們是否期望那些在中階智慧型手機等領域真正薄弱的客戶在下半年也會大幅反彈，以及您的季節性因素？

The smartphone high, mid- and low end, we consider that we can deal with it.

智慧型手機高、中、低階，我們認為我們都能應付。

Because at this point, still follow these relatively seasonal patterns and it's more predicable than the premium launch.

因為在這一點上，仍然遵循這些相對季節性的模式，並且它比高級發布更具可預測性。

Okay.

好的。

Follow-up question from Goldman Sachs, Donald Lu.

高盛 Donald Lu 的後續問題。

May I ask a question on the other gains and losses, still fluctuating in their guidance and where is it coming from, et cetera?

我可以問一個關於其他收益和損失的問題嗎？

It's $2.62 billion for Q1.

第一季的營收為 26.2 億美元。

Which line you are asking?

你問的是哪一行？

The gain and loss?

得與失？

The -- I was looking at Page 3 of the management report.

我當時正在看管理報告的第三頁。

On the second table there, there's other gains and losses, was like $1.8 billion in last Q1 and $2.6 billion this Q1.

在第二個表中，還有其他收益和損失，上一季為 18 億美元，本季為 26 億美元。

So I just wondering like...

所以我只是想知道...

Oh, you're referring to $2.62 billion second quarter versus $1.8 billion last year, right?

哦，您指的是第二季 26.2 億美元，而去年為 18 億美元，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the big component of this line is interest rate -- interest income.

我認為這條線的重要組成部分是利率——利息收入。

If we have more cash and generate more interest, then that helps on this one.

如果我們有更多的現金並產生更多的利息，那麼這會對這個問題有所幫助。

Okay.

好的。

Another question is on this year's guidance again.

另一個問題又是關於今年的指導。

I think you mentioned you lowered the foundry forecast because of inventory correction.

我想您提到由於庫存調整而降低了代工廠的預測。

But have you considered the news of speculations now that one of your -- the high-end premium phone launch this year might be delayed?

但是，您是否考慮過有關您今年推出的一款高階手機可能會被推遲的猜測消息？

For example, could be launched in September, the shipments is in November, December, things like that.

例如9月上市，11月、12月份出貨等等。

If that happens, what will happen to TSMC's guidance?

如果發生這種情況，台積電的指導會發生什麼變化？

This is totally speculation, right?

這完全是猜測，對吧？

So I don't make comment.

所以我不發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

In the interest of time, we'll just allow the final follow-up and that will be from Credit Lyonnais, Sebastian Hou.

為了節省時間，我們只允許最後的跟進，這將由里昂信貸銀行的 Sebastian Hou 進行。

So the first follow-up I have is we've seen TSMC blended wafer price on the 12-inch equivalent basis has increased every year since 2010.

因此，我的第一個後續行動是，我們看到自 2010 年以來，以 12 英寸等值計算的台積電混合晶圓價格每年都在上漲。

And my question is that, are you confident in terms of continuing to increase your blended wafer price in the next 5 years?

我的問題是，你們對未來5年繼續提高混合威化價格有信心嗎？

Well, so far, we're doing okay.

嗯，到目前為止，我們做得還不錯。

So we're still trying hard to continue improve our ASP.

所以我們仍在努力繼續改進我們的 ASP。

That's all I can say, yes.

我只能說這麼多，是的。

And my second follow-up is, can you share with us your strategy in how you look at memory.

我的第二個後續問題是，您能否與我們分享您如何看待記憶的策略。

We understand that TSMC has been in open embedded memory and also in the new type of innovative memory like MRAM, RRAM.

據了解，台積電一直在開放嵌入式記憶體領域，也在MRAM、RRAM等新型創新記憶體領域進行佈局。

And can you share with us on your -- how you progress on that and when we're going to see that embedded memory technology being commercialized on like 16 or even like 7-nanometers?

您能否與我們分享您在這方面的進展情況以及我們何時會看到嵌入式記憶體技術在 16 奈米甚至 7 奈米上實現商業化？

And also, can you share what is your strategy on the discrete memory?

另外，您能分享一下您在離散記憶體方面的策略嗎？

Let me talk about discrete memory and C.C. will cover the embedded memory.

先說一下離散記憶體和C.C.將覆蓋嵌入式記憶體。

We consider we are not in commodity business.

我們認為我們不從事商品業務。

Therefore, we -- at this point, we do not intend to enter the commodity business currently, which is discrete memory is.

因此，我們目前不打算進入商品業務，即離散記憶體。

So other than the commodity, actually, we work with customer who offer the embedded memory because of today, we are the largest provider of embedded flash.

因此，除了商品之外，實際上，我們與提供嵌入式記憶體的客戶合作，因為今天我們是最大的嵌入式快閃記憶體供應商。

But embedded flash has its own limitation, up to 28-nanometer.

但嵌入式快閃記憶體有其自身的局限性，最高可達 28 奈米。

So we work with the customer to find a better solution.

因此，我們與客戶合作尋找更好的解決方案。

That means we have to find some memory that can dissipate low power and higher speed.

這意味著我們必須找到一些可以消耗低功耗和更高速度的記憶體。

That's why we are working on the RRAM, MRAM and others.

這就是我們致力於 RRAM、MRAM 及其他產品的原因。

So that's our strategy.

這就是我們的策略。

We certainly work with customer to meet their demand, and we define our embedded memory's roadmap.

我們當然會與客戶合作以滿足他們的需求，並且我們定義了嵌入式記憶體的路線圖。

All right.

好的。

With this answer, we conclude today's conference.

帶著這個答案，我們結束今天的會議。

Please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 3 hours.

請注意，會議重播將在 3 小時內提供。

Transcript will become available within 24 hours from now.

成績單將在 24 小時內提供。

Both of them will be available through our website.

兩者都可以透過我們的網站獲得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。