台積電 ADR (TSM) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外語）歡迎來到台積電2018年第三季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播高級總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct the event in English only.

（操作員說明）由於世界各地的投資者正在觀看此會議，我們將僅以英語進行此次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2018 followed by guidance for the fourth quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們 2018 年第三季度的運營，然後是第四季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide company's key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電總裁C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A.

然後我們將開放現場和線路進行問答。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的收益會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

So please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

因此，請參閱我們新聞稿中出現的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the microphone to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of our operations and current quarter guidance.

現在我想把麥克風轉給台積電的首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以總結我們的運營和當前季度的指導。

Good afternoon, everybody.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the third quarter and followed by the guidance for the fourth quarter.

我的演講將從第三季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第四季度的指導。

Third quarter revenue in U.S. dollar reached $8.49 billion, which increased 8.1% sequentially, reflecting customers' new product launches using our 7-nanometer and a more favorable foreign exchange rate.

第三季度美元收入達到 84.9 億美元，環比增長 8.1%，反映出客戶使用我們的 7 納米技術推出新產品以及更有利的匯率。

Third quarter revenue came in stronger than the revised guidance that considered the impact from the August 3 virus incident as we were able to make up most of the delay in shipments.

第三季度收入強於考慮了 8 月 3 日病毒事件影響的修訂後指引，因為我們能夠彌補大部分發貨延遲。

In NT dollars, revenue increased 11.6% sequentially.

以新台幣計算，收入環比增長 11.6%。

Compared with second quarter, gross margin decreased 0.4 percentage point to 47.4% as the unfavorable technology mix was partially offset by the profitability improvement in the backend business, while the more favorable exchange rate offset the virus incident impact.

與第二季度相比，毛利率下降 0.4 個百分點至 47.4%，原因是不利的技術組合被後端業務的盈利能力改善部分抵消，而更有利的匯率抵消了病毒事件的影響。

Total operating expenses increased by TWD 1.7 billion.

總營運開支增加新台幣 17 億元。

The increase was mainly for 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer-plus development.

增加主要用於 5 納米和 7 納米以上的開發。

Thanks to operating efficiency, total operating expenses represented 10.8% of revenue versus 11.3% in the second quarter.

得益於運營效率，總運營費用佔收入的 10.8%，而第二季度為 11.3%。

So our operating margin improved 0.4 percentage point sequentially to 36.6%.

因此，我們的營業利潤率環比提高了 0.4 個百分點，達到 36.6%。

On tax expenses, after a step-up in tax rate to 17.5% in the second quarter due to the accrual of retained earning tax, our effective tax rate fell back to 10% in the third quarter.

在稅收支出方面，在第二季度由於留存收益稅的應計而將稅率提高至 17.5% 之後，我們的實際稅率在第三季度回落至 10%。

We expect the full year tax rate to be about 12%.

我們預計全年稅率約為 12%。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD 3.44, and ROE was 23.2%.

總體而言，我們第二季度的每股收益為新台幣 3.44 元，淨資產收益率為 23.2%。

Now let's take a look at wafer revenue contribution by application.

現在讓我們來看看按應用劃分的晶圓收入貢獻。

During the third quarter, Communication and Industrial/Standard increased 24% and 6%, respectively, while Computer and Consumer decreased by 35% and 1%, respectively.

第三季度，通信和工業/標準分別增長 24% 和 6%，而計算機和消費品分別下降 35% 和 1%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

7-nanometer process technology contributed 11% of total wafer revenue in the third quarter.

7 納米工藝技術在第三季度貢獻了晶圓總收入的 11%。

10-nanometer accounted for 6%, while the combined revenue from the 16- and 20-nanometer accounted for 25%.

10 納米佔 6%，而 16 納米和 20 納米的總收入佔 25%。

Advanced technologies, defined as 28-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 61% of the total wafer revenue.

定義為 28 納米及更先進技術的先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 61%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 604 billion, a decrease of TWD 145 billion from last quarter, mainly as we paid out TWD 207 billion of cash dividend, while we borrowed TWD 43 billion short-term loans for hedging purpose.

第三季末現金及有價證券為新台幣6,040億元，較上季減少新台幣1,450億元，主要是派發新台幣2,070億元現金股息，同時藉入新台幣430億元短期貸款作對沖用途.

Correspondingly, current liabilities decreased by TWD 141 billion.

相應地，流動負債減少新台幣1,410億元。

On financial ratios.

關於財務比率。

Accounts receivable turnover days remain at 38 days.

應收賬款周轉天數保持在38天。

Days of inventory decreased 1 day to 73 days due to stronger wafer shipment during the quarter.

由於本季度晶圓出貨量增加，庫存天數減少 1 天至 73 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 94 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 70 billion in capital expenditures.

第三季度，我們從運營中產生了約 940 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 700 億新台幣的資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD 24 billion.

因此，我們產生了 240 億新台幣的自由現金流。

After we paid out cash dividend and borrowed short-term loans, cash balance decreased by about TWD 143 billion to TWD 489 billion at the end of the quarter.

在派發現金股息及借入短期貸款後，季末現金結餘減少約1,430億新台幣至4,890億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, the capital expenditure spent in the first 3 quarters of 2018 totaled USD 6.7 billion.

按美元計算，2018年前三季度的資本支出總額為67億美元。

I have finished my summary of financial.

我已經完成了財務摘要。

Now let me provide you the fourth quarter guidance.

現在讓我為您提供第四季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 9.35 billion and USD 9.45 billion, which is a 10.7% sequential increase, at the midpoint of the guidance.

根據當前的業務前景，我們預計第四季度收入將在 93.5 億美元至 94.5 億美元之間，環比增長 10.7%，處於指引的中點。

Based on the exchange rate assumptions of USD 1 to TWD 30.80, our fourth quarter gross margin is expected to be between 47% and 49%.

根據 1 美元兌新台幣 30.80 的匯率假設，我們第四季度的毛利率預計在 47% 和 49% 之間。

Our fourth quarter gross margin -- our fourth quarter operating margin is expected to be between 36% and 38%.

我們第四季度的毛利率——我們第四季度的營業利潤率預計在 36% 到 38% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Let me follow by making a few comments about the near-term demand, inventory, capacity and CapEx.

接下來讓我就近期需求、庫存、產能和資本支出發表一些評論。

Now on the near-term demand and inventory.

現在談談近期需求和庫存。

We conclude our third quarter with revenue of TWD 260.3 billion or USD 8.49 billion, which is above our revised guidance.

我們以 2603 億新台幣或 84.9 億美元的收入結束了第三季度，高於我們修訂後的指引。

According to the revised guidance, the computer virus incident on August 3 was estimated to have impacted our third quarter revenue by about 2% and gross margin by about 1 percentage point, respectively.

根據修訂後的指引，估計 8 月 3 日的計算機病毒事件已分別影響我們第三季度收入約 2% 和毛利率約 1 個百分點。

However, we were able to make up about 75% of the affected shipments in the third quarter.

然而，我們能夠在第三季度彌補受影響出貨量的大約 75%。

So overall, our third quarter result was mainly driven by strong demand from product launches using our 7-nanometer technology.

因此，總體而言，我們第三季度的業績主要受到使用我們 7 納米技術的產品發布的強勁需求推動。

Moving into fourth quarter, despite the current market uncertainties, our business will benefit from the continuous steep ramp of 7-nanometer for several high-end smartphones as well as the demand for 16/12-nanometer for the launches of new-generation GPU and AI.

進入第四季度，儘管當前市場存在不確定性，但我們的業務將受益於多款高端智能手機的 7 納米持續陡峭增長以及新一代 GPU 和 16/12 納米的推出需求人工智能。

However, this growth will be partially offset by continued weakness in cryptocurrency mining demand and inventory management by our customers.

然而，這種增長將部分被加密貨幣挖礦需求和我們客戶的庫存管理持續疲軟所抵消。

Fabless DOI exiting third quarter 2018 was several days above seasonal level, slightly higher than what we expected 3 months ago.

退出 2018 年第三季度的 Fabless DOI 比季節性水平高幾天，略高於我們 3 個月前的預期。

We forecast fabless DOI to continue to stay at this above-seasonal level exiting 2018.

我們預測無晶圓廠 DOI 將繼續保持在 2018 年結束時高於季節性的水平。

Now let me make some comment about capacity and CapEx.

現在讓我對產能和資本支出發表一些評論。

At TSMC, we build our capacity according to customers' demand.

在台積電，我們根據客戶的需求來構建我們的能力。

We are continuing to increase 7-nanometer capacity to meet the strong customer demand.

我們正在繼續增加 7 納米產能以滿足強大的客戶需求。

We reiterate our 2018 CapEx to be between USD 10 billion and USD 10.5 billion.

我們重申 2018 年的資本支出在 100 億美元至 105 億美元之間。

In addition, as I have talked about before, although our leading nodes' capital cost continue to increase due to increasing process complexity, we are able to offset its impact to our CapEx by productivity improvements and further optimization of our capacity planning.

此外，正如我之前所說，儘管我們領先節點的資本成本由於流程複雜性的增加而不斷增加，但我們能夠通過提高生產力和進一步優化我們的容量規劃來抵消其對資本支出的影響。

Going forward, we expect annual CapEx needed to support our 5% to 10% revenue CAGR in U.S. dollar terms in the next few years will continue to range between USD 10 billion and USD 12 billion.

展望未來，我們預計未來幾年支持我們以美元計算的 5% 至 10% 收入複合年增長率所需的年度資本支出將繼續在 100 億美元至 120 億美元之間。

I conclude my remarks.

我結束我的發言。

Let me turn the microphone to C.C.

讓我把麥克風調到 C.C.

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，勞拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好。

Let me start with 2018 year's outlook.

讓我從2018年的展望開始。

For the full year of 2018, we forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory will grow between 5% and 7%, while foundry is expected to grow between 6% and 7%.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預測不包括內存在內的整體半導體市場將增長 5% 至 7%，而晶圓代工預計增長 6% 至 7%。

For TSMC, as Lora has just indicated, that our second half of 2018 business will be strongly supported by the 7-nanometer ramp-up, which is mainly driven by a few new smartphone launches.

對於台積電，正如 Lora 剛剛表示的那樣，我們 2018 年下半年的業務將得到 7 納米產能提升的有力支持，這主要是由幾款新智能手機的推出推動的。

However, our business is also negatively impacted by further weakening of cryptocurrency mining demand.

然而，我們的業務也受到加密貨幣挖礦需求進一步疲軟的負面影響。

As a result, we estimate our 2018 growth rate will be about 6.5% in U.S. dollar term, which is close to the foundry industry's growth but slightly below our 7% to 9% guidance given in the last conference.

因此，我們估計我們 2018 年的增長率將以美元計算約為 6.5%，這接近代工行業的增長，但略低於我們在上次會議中給出的 7% 至 9% 的指導。

Now let me update you about the August 3 virus incident.

現在讓我向您介紹 8 月 3 日的病毒事件。

On August 3, TSMC experienced a computer virus outbreak, which affected a number of computer systems and fab tools.

8月3日，台積電遭遇電腦病毒爆發，影響了多台電腦系統和晶圓廠設備。

The infection was due to misoperation and insufficient firewall controls.

感染是由於誤操作和防火牆控制不足造成的。

We have since corrected this problem to ensure such viruses will not happen again in the future.

我們已經糾正了這個問題，以確保將來不會再發生此類病毒。

Our remediate actions including the following: implementing an automated system to guarantee fool proof execution so that such misoperation will not happen again; enhanced firewall control for fab isolation; and network control to each individual computer.

我們的補救措施包括： 實施自動化系統以保證萬無一失的執行，使此類誤操作不會再次發生；增強的工廠隔離防火牆控制；和網絡控製到每台單獨的計算機。

More enhancements now are ongoing, too, for further improve tool immunity against future infections.

現在也正在進行更多增強，以進一步提高工具對未來感染的免疫力。

TSMC sets top priority for such security enhancement.

台積電將此類安全性增強放在首位。

Now let me talk about the N7 and N7+ and the EUV's progress.

下面說說N7和N7+以及EUV的進展。

TSMC's N7 technology is now available for customers to unleash their innovations.

台積電的 N7 技術現已可供客戶釋放他們的創新。

This is the first time in the semiconductor industry the most advanced logic technology is available for all product innovations at the same time.

這是半導體行業首次將最先進的邏輯技術同時用於所有產品創新。

We continue to work with many customers on N7, N7+ product design and expect to see more than 100 customer product tape-outs by end of 2019.

我們繼續與許多客戶合作進行 N7、N7+ 產品設計，預計到 2019 年底將有超過 100 個客戶產品流片。

We expect 7-nanometer to be a long node and will attract multiple waves of customer adoptions.

我們預計 7 納米將成為一個長節點，並將吸引多波客戶採用。

N7+ is in risk production now.

N7+目前處於風險生產階段。

Since the N7+ has 15% to 20% better density and more than 10% lower power consumption, we are working with many customers for their second wave product designs in N7+.

由於 N7+ 的密度提高了 15% 到 20%，功耗降低了 10% 以上，我們正在與許多客戶合作，為他們在 N7+ 中進行第二波產品設計。

Although the number of tape-outs today account for a small portion of the total 7-nanometer tape-outs, we expect the activity to pick up at a rapid pace in 2020 and beyond.

儘管今天的流片數量只佔 7 納米流片總數的一小部分，但我們預計該活動將在 2020 年及以後快速回升。

Because the N7+ is using a few layers of EUV photolithography to have better cycle time and patent control, we have made steady progress on EUV technology development towards high-volume production.

由於 N7+ 使用幾層 EUV 光刻以獲得更好的周期時間和專利控制，我們在 EUV 技術開發方面取得了穩步進展，朝著大批量生產方向發展。

Tool availability, EUV power, productivity, defect reduction, mask improvement, material and process optimization are all on schedule.

工具可用性、EUV 功率、生產率、缺陷減少、掩模改進、材料和工藝優化都按計劃進行。

A few customers have already made plans to adopt our N7+ in their 2019 products.

一些客戶已經計劃在他們的 2019 年產品中採用我們的 N7+。

Let me move to our N5 status.

讓我轉到我們的 N5 狀態。

Our N5 technology development is on schedule.

我們的 N5 技術開發如期進行。

We have completed the design solution development and are ready for customers' design start.

我們已經完成了設計方案的開發，可以為客戶的設計啟動做好準備。

The N5 risk production schedule in first half 2019 stays the same.

2019年上半年N5風險生產計劃保持不變。

Compared to N7, TSMC's N5 deliver 1.8x to 1.86x logic area reduction and close to 15% to 18% speed gain and ARM A72 core.

與 N7 相比，台積電的 N5 邏輯面積減少了 1.8 倍至 1.86 倍，速度增益接近 15% 至 18%，採用 ARM A72 內核。

We expect to receive first customer product tape-out in spring of 2019, followed by production ramp in first half 2020.

我們預計將在 2019 年春季收到第一批客戶產品流片，然後在 2020 年上半年實現量產。

Now let me talk about the N28, N22 and mature nodes' strategy.

下面說一下N28、N22和成熟節點的策略。

Due to faster-than-expected technology migration from 28-nanometer to 16-nanometer and below, 28-nanometer's overcapacity becomes an industry-wide phenomenon, and is expected to last for a few years.

由於28納米向16納米及以下的技術遷移速度快於預期，28納米產能過剩成為全行業現象，預計將持續數年。

TSMC's mature nodes' strategy is to work closely with our customers to develop specialty technology solutions to meet customers' requirement.

台積電成熟節點的策略是與客戶緊密合作，開發專業技術解決方案以滿足客戶的需求。

For example, we continue to develop 22-nanometer for scaling benefit and better performance.

例如，我們繼續開發 22 納米以獲得擴展優勢和更好的性能。

We are also developing 22-nanometer for CMOS imaging sensor, MRAM and RRAM.

我們還在開髮用於 CMOS 成像傳感器、MRAM 和 RRAM 的 22 納米。

For all mature nodes, TSMC will continue to develop a variety of special technologies, such as power management IC, Embedded Flash, imaging sensor, MEMS, to maintain our good capacity loading rate and to increase our technology value to customers.

對於所有成熟的節點，台積電將繼續開發各種特殊技術，例如電源管理IC、嵌入式閃存、成像傳感器、MEMS，以保持我們良好的容量加載率並增加我們對客戶的技術價值。

Now let me talk about advanced packaging update.

下面說一下高級封裝更新。

TSMC has been developing advanced wafer-level packaging technologies to integrated advanced SoCs, memories, integrated passive device, to enhance system performance.

台積電一直在開發先進的晶圓級封裝技術，以集成先進的SoC、存儲器、集成無源器件，以提高系統性能。

We believe our advanced packaging solutions will contribute to our business growth.

我們相信我們先進的封裝解決方案將有助於我們的業務增長。

We are now expanding the applications of both CoWoS and InFO especially for high-performance computing.

我們現在正在擴展 CoWoS 和 InFO 的應用，尤其是在高性能計算方面。

Most of the CoWoS products require integration of SoC with High Bandwidth Memory, HBM, in 3D stack.

大多數 CoWoS 產品需要在 3D 堆棧中將 SoC 與高帶寬內存 (HBM) 集成。

We are making good progress in qualifying multiple HBM sources through close collaboration with customers and the DRAM suppliers.

通過與客戶和 DRAM 供應商的密切合作，我們在驗證多個 HBM 來源方面取得了良好進展。

We are also working with a few leading customer on SoIC, which stands for system on integrated chips, where multiple heterogeneous chipsets will be integrated with close proximity to deliver better performance.

我們還在 SoIC 上與一些領先的客戶合作，SoIC 代表集成芯片系統，其中多個異構芯片組將緊密集成以提供更好的性能。

And we target to start production in 2021 time frame.

我們的目標是在 2021 年開始生產。

That's all my report, and thank you for your attention.

以上就是我的報告，感謝您的關注。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的聲明到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

（操作員說明）問題將從現場和電話中提出。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) So we can start.

（操作員說明）所以我們可以開始了。

Deutsche Bank, Michael Chou first.

德意志銀行，Michael Chou 首先。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

One is, what is the outlook for 7-nanometer sales portion in 2019?

一是2019年7納米銷售部分的前景如何？

Can you give some color at this moment based on your current visibility or some tape-out numbers?

您現在可以根據您當前的知名度或一些流片數字給出一些顏色嗎？

Michael, your question is what is the outlook of 7-nanometer...

邁克爾，你的問題是7納米的前景如何......

In 2019.

2019年。

In 2019?

2019年？

In terms of the sales portion or any indication.

在銷售部分或任何指示方面。

I would like to answer the question and say it's a very strong demand in all the platforms, in all the market sector, which including the mobile phone, high-performance computing, that's included graphic, a lot of AI accelerator, FPGA, you name it.

我想回答這個問題，並指出所有平台、所有市場領域的需求都非常強勁，包括手機、高性能計算，包括圖形、大量 AI 加速器、FPGA，等等它。

A lot of customers are working with us, as I just stated, and we expect 100 or more than 100 tape-outs -- product tape-outs in year 2019.

正如我剛才所說，很多客戶都在與我們合作，我們預計 2019 年會有 100 次或超過 100 次流片——產品流片。

So did I answer your question?

那我回答你的問題了嗎？

Is it fair to say that 7-nanometer sales portion will be more than 20% of total sales for the whole year next year?

明年7納米銷售額佔全年總銷售額的比重會超過20%，這公平嗎？

Next year?

明年？

Let me answer that.

讓我來回答。

You have seen our report.

你已經看到我們的報告了。

The third quarter 7-nanometer accounts for 11%.

第三季度7納米佔比11%。

The fourth quarter will be more than 20%.

第四季度將超過20%。

So for whole year 2018, 7-nanometer will contribute close to 10% of total TSMC revenue.

因此，對於 2018 年全年，7 納米將貢獻台積電總收入的近 10%。

Go beyond 7 -- 2018, and we will have very, very strong ramp, in 2019 as well, we expect the revenue contribution will be much higher than 20%.

超過 7 - 2018 年，我們將有非常非常強勁的增長，同樣在 2019 年，我們預計收入貢獻將遠高於 20%。

Second question.

第二個問題。

C.C., you mentioned 28-nanometer oversupply in the industry could be a normal situation over the next few years.

C.C.，您提到28納米在未來幾年內可能會成為行業內的常態。

So will management consider converting some 28-nanometer to advanced node?

那麼管理層會考慮將一些 28 納米轉換為高級節點嗎？

I know you mentioned some specialty, especially PMIC in 28, CIS in 28, so -- which should be a good volume product.

我知道你提到了一些專業，特別是 28 年的 PMIC，28 年的 CIS，所以 - 這應該是一個很好的量產產品。

But would you consider to convert some capacity to advanced node?

但是你會考慮將一些容量轉換為高級節點嗎？

Good question, Michael.

好問題，邁克爾。

Actually, we are moving from 28-nanometer to 22-nanometer, which is a smaller geometry and more advanced.

實際上，我們正在從 28 納米轉向 22 納米，這是一個更小的幾何形狀，更先進。

I think your question is, are we consider moving into 16, convert some of them?

我想你的問題是，我們是否考慮進入 16，轉換其中一些？

We keep the flexibility to move the wafer around, so they can support each other.

我們保持移動晶圓的靈活性，因此它們可以相互支撐。

We already did that.

我們已經這樣做了。

So there are a lot of commonality in the tools, so some of that capacity -- or part of the capacity can support other technology node.

所以這些工具有很多共性，所以一些能力——或者部分能力可以支持其他技術節點。

So you mean that if -- for instance, if your 16/12-nanometer demand is beyond your estimate, so you can use some 28-nanometer to some 16 node product in the future?

所以你的意思是，如果 - 例如，如果你的 16/12 納米需求超出你的估計，那麼你可以在未來使用一些 28 納米到一些 16 節點產品？

We have some tools that have a commonality.

我們有一些具有共性的工具。

For example, implanter , right, and the cleanup and a lot of things.

例如，植入器，對，還有清理等等。

But let me stress again, I say the overcapacity for a few years, however, we are developing 22-nanometer, we are developing a lot of specialties.

但是我再強調一下，我說幾年產能過剩，但是，我們在發展22納米，我們在發展很多專業。

And for TSMC, this is only probably a couple of years we are going to fully utilize 28-nanometer again.

對於台積電來說，這可能只是幾年我們將再次充分利用 28 納米。

Then is that fair to say your 28/22 UTR over the next few years, that you are confident you can maintain maybe above 85%, about 90%?

那麼可以公平地說你在未來幾年的 28/22 UTR，你有信心你可以保持在 85% 以上，大約 90%？

I'm not going to ask -- to answer this question.

我不會問 - 回答這個問題。

But after a couple of years, it will be the high utilization rate again.

但幾年後，它會再次成為高利用率。

Next question will be coming from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

下一個問題將來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Randy Abrams。

I wanted to ask a question about sales and also gross margins.

我想問一個關於銷售額和毛利率的問題。

The sales in the fourth quarter is actually fairly good, factoring in the business environment.

考慮到商業環境，第四季度的銷售實際上還算不錯。

Could you talk maybe the forward view?

你能談談前瞻性的觀點嗎？

You mentioned also fabless days of inventory may exit the year a few days high.

你還提到 fabless 庫存天數可能會創下今年幾天的高位。

So with the implication for our first half, especially relative to the last 2 years, we saw declines in first and second quarter.

因此，對於我們上半年的影響，尤其是相對於過去兩年，我們在第一季度和第二季度都出現了下滑。

So if you have a view kind of the rate or magnitude of the decline relative to what you think normal seasonal is after first and second quarter.

因此，如果你對第一季度和第二季度之後相對於你認為正常季節性的下降速度或幅度有一個看法。

Are we going to forecast that second -- next year's first quarter and second quarter?

我們是否要預測第二個——明年的第一季度和第二季度？

Initial view based on inventory and demand.

基於庫存和需求的初步看法。

We have very strong demand in 7-nanometer.

我們對 7 納米的需求非常強勁。

Let me just continue to say that.

讓我繼續說。

For the last quarter of this year, you're talking about the profit margin, right?

今年最後一個季度，你說的是利潤率，對吧？

Yes, the second question on margin, I wanted to ask, it's about 1 point or 2 below the traditional, say, 49 to 50 target.

是的，關於保證金的第二個問題，我想問的是，它比傳統的 49 到 50 目標低 1 點或 2 點。

Yes.

是的。

And Lora cited product mix.

和 Lora 引用的產品組合。

Next year, 7 will be more mature.

明年，7會更成熟。

Do you think you have the catalyst to get back to that 49, 50 or other factors like 28 oversupply?

你認為你有催化劑回到 49、50 或其他因素，如 28 供過於求嗎？

Well, let me answer the -- your fourth quarter's profit margin is a bit lower than we used to have.

好吧，讓我回答——你們第四季度的利潤率比我們以前低了一點。

That's between 49, 50.

介於 49 和 50 之間。

That's because of our product mix Lora just have mentioned.

那是因為 Lora 剛才提到的我們的產品組合。

Product mix, one of the major reason is the 7-nanometer's ramp up much faster than we thought.

產品組合的主要原因之一是 7 納米的提升速度比我們想像的要快得多。

And the demand is very strong.

而且需求非常旺盛。

And so that lower down our margin a couple of point.

因此，我們的利潤率降低了幾個百分點。

But I'll let the CFO to explain the number.

但我會讓首席財務官解釋這個數字。

C.C. mentioned about 7-nanometer being particularly strong compared with our other leading-edge technology in the past.

抄送提到 7 納米與我們過去的其他領先技術相比特別強大。

It does dilute our corporate margin level starting from the third quarter this year.

從今年第三季度開始，它確實稀釋了我們的企業利潤率水平。

Going to the fourth quarter, as I mentioned, the revenue contribution will be 20% -- more than 20% of our fourth quarter revenue.

進入第四季度，正如我提到的，收入貢獻將達到 20%——超過我們第四季度收入的 20%。

And the margin for 7-nanometer at the beginning stage is still below corporate average.

而7納米的初期利潤率仍低於企業平均水平。

So the dilution in the fourth quarter will be more severe than the third quarter.

所以第四季度的稀釋會比第三季度更嚴重。

Our estimation is between 2 to 3 percentage points for fourth quarter gross margin.

我們估計第四季度的毛利率在 2 到 3 個百分點之間。

Now going into 2019, as the ramp will continue to be very strong, so we believe the margin dilution will be eased off when we reach to the second half of 2019.

現在進入 2019 年，由於增長將繼續非常強勁，因此我們相信當我們到達 2019 年下半年時，利潤率攤薄將得到緩解。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe just -- to follow up on that first one about sales, you mentioned 7 is very strong.

也許只是 - 跟進第一個關於銷售的問題，你提到 7 非常強大。

But I guess, do you have a view that the rest of the business may be doing some further inventory adjustments in the first quarter?

但我想，您是否認為其他業務可能會在第一季度進行一些進一步的庫存調整？

Lora?

勞拉？

There are several days above seasonal this quarter.

本季度有幾天高於季節性。

And going into 2019, I think inventory will be gradually digested when we move into the second half of '19.

進入 2019 年，我認為當我們進入 19 年下半年時，庫存將逐漸消化。

Okay.

好的。

The second question I wanted to ask was about the 7+ versus 5-nanometer.

我想問的第二個問題是關於 7+ 與 5 納米的對比。

You mentioned 2020 would see the very strong ramp-up of tape-out and activity in volume on 7+.

您提到 2020 年 7+ 的流片和活動量將非常強勁地增加。

Is it your view -- I think last conference, Mark said 5 was a little bit more conservative at this stage.

這是你的觀點嗎——我認為在上次會議上，Mark 說 5 在這個階段有點保守。

So how's your view now for interest activity and expectation for a steep ramp-up of 5 into 2020?

那麼，您現在對利息活動的看法以及對到 2020 年急劇增加 5 的預期如何？

We still expect very fast ramp on 5. The reason is simple.

我們仍然期望 5 的速度非常快。原因很簡單。

Because of a lot of products developed in the AI area, you need the speed, you need the lower power, and you also need a small footprint.

因為在 AI 領域開發的很多產品，你需要速度，你需要更低的功率，你還需要小的佔地面積。

So from this -- from today, we can see when we work with our customers, the ramp will be steep again.

因此，從今天開始，我們可以看到，當我們與客戶合作時，斜坡將再次陡峭。

Okay.

好的。

Do you think mobile will also contribute in that steep ramp?

您是否認為移動設備也會為這個陡峭的斜坡做出貢獻？

Still come from the mobile phone first, followed by other applications.

還是首先來自手機，其次是其他應用。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

I would like to follow up for this 4Q gross margin guidance.

我想跟進這個 4Q 毛利率指導。

If I compare with 4Q last year, actually, we have a similar percentage contribution from this leading edge.

如果我與去年第四季度進行比較，實際上，我們從這一領先優勢中獲得了相似的百分比貢獻。

Last year, 4Q 10-nanometer was about 25% of the total revenue.

去年第 4 季度 10 納米約佔總收入的 25%。

And in 4Q this year, actually, we have a favorable exchange rate compared to 4Q last year.

實際上，今年第四季度，與去年第四季度相比，我們的匯率有利。

And also, we have this improved backend profitability.

而且，我們還提高了後端盈利能力。

So how come we still have a lower gross margin compared to 4Q last year?

那麼與去年第四季度相比，為什麼我們的毛利率仍然較低？

There's about 2 percentage point difference this 4Q versus last 4Q, okay?

今年第四季度與上一季度相比大約有 2 個百分點的差異，好嗎？

So one reason is product mix issue.

所以原因之一是產品組合問題。

I'm particularly talking about 28-nanometer.

我特別在談論 28 納米。

You know our 28-nanometer is very profitable, and the contribution to corporate revenue has declined from last year to this year.

你知道我們28納米是很賺錢的，對企業營收的貢獻比去年到今年都下降了。

So these 2 reasons, product mix because 28 declining and also because the utilization of 28 is not full, yes.

所以這兩個原因，產品組合是因為 28 下降，也是因為 28 的利用率不高，是的。

That's one reason that there's a new phenomenon.

這就是出現新現象的原因之一。

Okay.

好的。

So how about the standard gross margin, does it change?

那麼標準毛利率怎麼樣，有變化嗎？

Structural profitability is still intact, no change.

結構性盈利能力依然完好，沒有變化。

Okay.

好的。

And also last quarter, you talked about, for longer term, our financial objective for gross margin is 50%.

上個季度，您談到，從長遠來看，我們的毛利率財務目標是 50%。

So is this 50% a fixed number?

那麼這個50%是一個固定的數字嗎？

Or this 50% is average for the upcoming few years?

或者這 50% 是未來幾年的平均水平？

50% is our goal.

50% 是我們的目標。

We aim to achieve that.

我們的目標是實現這一目標。

If we can have higher utilization, I am quite confident we can achieve that.

如果我們能有更高的利用率，我很有信心我們能做到。

Okay.

好的。

So this year I think that probably we are not able to achieve this 50%.

所以今年我認為我們可能達不到這50%。

No, not...

不，不是...

Because of the utilization?

因為利用率？

Not this year.

不是今年。

And also because the 7-nanometer ramp is more severe than previous node.

而且還因為 7 納米的斜坡比以前的節點更嚴重。

So first year dilution is slightly bigger, okay?

所以第一年的稀釋度稍微大一些，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

My second question is AMD starts its 7-nanometer CPU from server.

我的第二個問題是 AMD 從服務器啟動其 7 納米 CPU。

And also, ARM recently also talked, they have this new brand server product.

還有，ARM最近也說了，他們有這個新品牌的服務器產品。

So is server CPU going forward to be a very significant part of our business going forward?

那麼服務器 CPU 是否會成為我們未來業務的重要組成部分？

It will be an important part.

這將是一個重要的部分。

Significant, maybe.

重要的，也許。

So your 4 growth platforms, smartphone, HPC, IoT and the automotive, and so this server CPU will be in HPC then?

那麼您的 4 個增長平台，智能手機、HPC、物聯網和汽車，那麼這個服務器 CPU 會在 HPC 中嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Can you just reiterate the growth breakdown for this 4 platforms next year?

您能否重申一下明年這 4 個平台的增長明細？

Okay, let me give you some color on it.

好吧，讓我給你一些顏色。

In the next few years, if we look at ahead, actually, the smartphone is going to be in our daily life even more and more.

在接下來的幾年裡，如果我們放眼未來，實際上，智能手機將會越來越多地出現在我們的日常生活中。

So we have a 4 growth engine: one is a mobile phone, actually it's a high-end smartphone; second one is a high-performance computing; automotive; IoT.

所以我們有4個增長引擎：一個是手機，實際上是高端智能手機；第二個是高性能計算；汽車；物聯網。

The mobile phone probably for TSMC will have a 5 year CAGR, if I look at it right from today, it will be mid-single digit growth.

台積電的手機可能會有 5 年的複合年增長率，如果我從今天開始看，它將是中等個位數的增長。

And the all others 3 platorms will have a very comfortably double-digit growth in the 5 year time frame.

而所有其他 3 個平台將在 5 年的時間框架內實現非常舒適的兩位數增長。

And so that's a -- did that answer your question?

這就是 - 這是否回答了您的問題？

That's...

那是...

Yes.

是的。

Next question will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀，Bill Lu。

First question is on China.

第一個問題是關於中國的。

So a lot of concerns about the trade tension, about the economy slowing down, et cetera.

因此，很多人擔心貿易緊張局勢、經濟放緩等等。

Can you talk a little bit about what feedback you might be getting from your Chinese customers, both short term and long term?

您能談談您可能從中國客戶那裡得到哪些短期和長期的反饋嗎？

And short term meaning whether you're seeing any increasing levels of conservatism on ordering, on demand.

短期意味著您是否看到在訂購和按需方面越來越保守。

Longer term, is there any change in the strategies of these Chinese customers in terms of perhaps less reliance on the U.S., et cetera?

從長遠來看，這些中國客戶的戰略是否有任何變化，比如可能減少對美國的依賴等等？

To answer your question, for the short term, we did not see any impact, if there's any at all.

回答你的問題，就短期而言，我們沒有看到任何影響，如果有的話。

So our China customers, no, they did not change their behaviors.

所以我們的中國客戶，不，他們沒有改變他們的行為。

So we continue to work with the customer to produce their products.

所以我們繼續與客戶合作生產他們的產品。

For the long term, long term, due to the trade tension, your question is due to the trade tension?

從長遠來看，長期來看，由於貿易緊張，你的問題是因為貿易緊張？

Yes.

是的。

Let me answer the question by another way.

讓我用另一種方式回答這個問題。

TSMC has been proud to be everybody's foundry.

台積電一直以成為每個人的鑄造廠而自豪。

So if there's a trade tension, if there is, and if it continues, I think that TSMC -- the impact to TSMC would be less or minimized because if -- we still need that -- the semiconductor device, and TSMC is everybody's foundry, right, so whether they are produced here, produced there, it's all TSMC's customer.

因此，如果存在貿易緊張局勢，如果存在，並且持續下去，我認為台積電 - 對台積電的影響將會減少或最小化，因為如果 - 我們仍然需要 - 半導體設備，而台積電是每個人的代工廠，對，所以無論是這裡生產，那裡生產，都是台積電的客戶。

Great.

偉大的。

I know 2018 is not over yet, but if you think about the next couple of years, I know TSMC has talked about a long-term growth rate of 5% to 10%.

我知道 2018 年還沒有結束，但如果你想想未來幾年，我知道台積電已經談到了 5% 到 10% 的長期增長率。

Now I feel like more recently, you've talked a lot more about the progress on 7-nanometers.

現在我覺得最近，您更多地談論了 7 納米的進展。

We all know about Intel's struggles with their process technology.

我們都知道英特爾在其工藝技術上的掙扎。

And it's public information.

而且是公開信息。

They've announced it, right?

他們已經宣布了，對吧？

So -- and then you've got some good design wins.

所以 - 然後你獲得了一些好的設計勝利。

Can you talk about your long-term outlook in 2019?

能否談談您對2019年的長期展望？

Given these drivers you just said, out of the -- 3 out of the 4 new drivers will be above 10%.

考慮到你剛才說的這些驅動程序，4 個新驅動程序中有 3 個將超過 10%。

So are we looking at something more towards the high end of that?

那麼我們是否正在尋找更高端的東西？

Or how do you think about that?

或者你怎麼看？

We continue to say 5% to 10% growth rate.

我們繼續說 5% 到 10% 的增長率。

Probably I would like to -- following your question, I would like to say probably tends to be at the higher side of that 5% to 10%.

可能我想——在你的問題之後，我想說可能傾向於在 5% 到 10% 的較高水平。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

Next question will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題將來自 Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu。

My first question is I know, C.C., you were talking about your more than 100 tape-outs for N7 and N7+.

我的第一個問題是我知道，C.C.，你在談論你的 N7 和 N7+ 的 100 多次流片。

Can you give us a little bit more of -- a little bit of breakdown?

你能給我們多一點——一點點崩潰嗎？

I would like to know how many tape-out for N7 plus and also what kind of application for that.

我想知道N7 plus的流片量是多少，以及它的應用是什麼。

Okay.

好的。

N7 plus' tape-out -- product tape-outs, I'm talking about tape -- product tape-outs is still a small percentage of the total N7 nanometer as a node, as I just mentioned.

正如我剛才提到的，N7 plus 的流片——產品流片，我說的是流片——產品流片仍然佔整個 N7 納米節點的一小部分。

But then up to 2019, I expect 2020, when the current customers, they start to design on their second-wave products, then there will be more of them on N7+.

但到 2019 年，我預計到 2020 年，噹噹前客戶開始設計他們的第二波產品時，N7+ 上會有更多這樣的產品。

So I don't have a specific number for you on 2020.

所以我沒有 2020 年的具體數字。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is, you also mentioned that your N7 will likely be another long node.

第二個問題，你也提到你的N7很可能是另一個長節點。

So presumably it will be probably something like N28 in term of success.

所以據推測，就成功而言，它可能類似於 N28。

So my question is, in term of capacity build -- I know you don't have the capacity number, but in term of capacity build, would you benchmark your N28 into capacity number?

所以我的問題是，就能力建設而言——我知道你沒有能力數字，但就能力建設而言，你會把你的 N28 基準化為能力數字嗎？

We build out capacity according to the customer demand, and that -- I can assure you that.

我們根據客戶需求建立容量，而且 - 我可以向你保證。

Compared with the 28-nanometer?

與28納米相比？

Right.

正確的。

I cannot make any comment right now.

我現在不能發表任何評論。

Okay, next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

好的，下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So my first question is regarding the semiconductor inventory.

所以我的第一個問題是關於半導體庫存。

So in which segment do you see more inventory?

那麼您在哪個細分市場看到更多庫存？

Because we are hearing lots of noise about automotive, industrial segment weakness and some cloud CapEx cut, right?

因為我們聽到很多關於汽車、工業部門疲軟和一些雲資本支出削減的聲音，對吧？

So can you give us some color about where do you see the inventory and also your 8" fab utilization rate?

那麼您能否告訴我們您在哪裡看到庫存以及您的 8" 晶圓廠利用率？

Well, I don't think we want to specify which product sector that have high inventory.

好吧，我認為我們不想具體說明哪個產品部門的庫存較高。

But let me assure you that this year's -- at the end of this year, the inventory level actually as compared with the last year's same time is much smaller.

但讓我向你保證，今年 - 今年年底，庫存水平實際上與去年同期相比要小得多。

So even we have some kind of inventory adjustment, I don't think the impact to the next year's first quarter or next year's first half would be as severe as we saw this year, right?

因此，即使我們進行了某種庫存調整，我認為對明年第一季度或明年上半年的影響也不會像今年那樣嚴重，對吧？

So that's all I can say because it's very dynamic.

這就是我所能說的，因為它非常有活力。

Lora, you want to add something?

Lora，你想補充點什麼嗎？

Just if I can add some color to your questions, if I look at the fourth quarter, we have just guided the 10.7% growth quarter-over-quarter.

如果我可以為你的問題添加一些顏色，如果我看一下第四季度，我們剛剛指導了 10.7% 的環比增長。

But looking at the segment, fourth quarter, Communication will grow very strong.

但從第四季度的細分市場來看，通信將增長非常強勁。

Computer, small growth, lower than the corporate growth, so that area's relatively weak.

計算機方面，增長較小，低於企業增長，所以該領域相對較弱。

Consumer's is weaker, it's negative growth.

消費疲軟，是負增長。

And Industrial is a small decline.

而工業是一個小幅下降。

So maybe this can give you some color about the -- which segment has more inventory.

所以也許這可以給你一些關於哪個部分有更多庫存的顏色。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe this is also related to Bill's previous question, right?

所以也許這也與比爾之前的問題有關，對吧？

So when you analyze this inventory, customers' demand, do you think there is any impact from any macro factor, including the China-U.

所以當你分析這個庫存，客戶的需求時，你認為有任何宏觀因素的影響，包括中美關係。

S. trade tension?

S.貿易緊張？

Or it's just a normal semiconductor cycle?

或者這只是一個正常的半導體週期？

I will say it's just a normal inventory cycle.

我會說這只是一個正常的庫存週期。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, and next question is also related to the 7-nanometer plus, right?

是的，下一個問題也與7納米有關，對吧？

So you mentioned only a few tape-outs.

所以你只提到了一些流片。

But sometimes, one tape-out can be very significant to revenue, right?

但有時，一次流片對收入來說可能非常重要，對吧？

So can you give us some comments regarding the 7-nanometer-plus revenue contribution next year?

那麼您能否就明年 7 納米以上的收入貢獻給我們一些評論？

No, I don't want to specifically say which one.

不，我不想具體說是哪一個。

I think at this point, we would like to turn the questioning to the callers on the line.

我認為在這一點上，我們希望將問題轉給在線的來電者。

So operator, could you please put the first caller on the line first?

那麼接線員，你能不能讓第一個來電者先接通電話？

The first question is from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just want to go back to your view on 2018, an interesting year because you have the migration from 4G to 5G, which could adversely impact demand, but you also have AI and IoT ramping.

只想回到你對 2018 年的看法，這是有趣的一年，因為你從 4G 遷移到 5G，這可能會對需求產生不利影響，但你也有 AI 和 IoT 的增長。

How should we think about the mix changing?

我們應該如何考慮組合變化？

And would new applications and continued share gain would enable you to actually offset any adverse impact as we move from 4 to 5G?

隨著我們從 4G 過渡到 5G，新的應用程序和持續的份額增長是否會讓您真正抵消任何不利影響？

Mehdi, in fact, we can only hear your voice in a discontinued manner.

Mehdi，其實我們只能以斷斷續續的方式聽到你的聲音。

So could you please repeat your question again?

那麼你能再重複一遍你的問題嗎？

Maybe keep your voice a little bit away from the microphone.

也許讓你的聲音遠離麥克風一點。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

I'm just trying to better understand how you're thinking about 2019.

我只是想更好地了解您對 2019 年的看法。

It seems like there are many new projects that are ramping given the number of tapeouts at 7-nanometer.

鑑於 7 納米的流片數量，似乎有許多新項目正在加速發展。

And we also know that in this mark for market, we're in transition from 4 to 5G.

我們也知道，在這個市場上，我們正在從 4G 過渡到 5G。

In that context, should we expect new products, especially for AI and IoT, to get strong enough to offset any adverse impact from migration from 4 to 5G?

在這種情況下，我們是否應該期待新產品，尤其是人工智能和物聯網的新產品，能夠變得足夠強大，以抵消從 4G 到 5G 遷移的任何不利影響？

So you want to repeat the question?

所以你想重複這個問題？

All right.

好的。

Let me try.

讓我嘗試。

I think Mehdi's question is that he is very positive about the outlook for us in 2019 because we have so many new product launches from our customers using 7-nanometer and smartphone is entering into a 5G era.

我認為 Mehdi 的問題是他對我們 2019 年的前景非常樂觀，因為我們的客戶使用 7 納米技術推出瞭如此多的新產品，而且智能手機正在進入 5G 時代。

And so he thinks that we may get a lot of new products in AI and IoT, which would be able to offset the migration from 4G to 5G.

所以他認為我們可能會在人工智能和物聯網領域獲得很多新產品，這將能夠抵消從 4G 到 5G 的遷移。

From 4G to 5G, well, that's the question.

從 4G 到 5G，嗯，這就是問題所在。

So looks like the question says -- indicate that 4G to 5G there will have a dip.

所以看起來問題說的是——表明 4G 到 5G 會有下降。

Actually, it's not.

其實不然。

5G in 2019, we expect to start to grow, but not a significant number.

我們預計 2019 年 5G 將開始增長，但數量不會很大。

So most of the phone -- the smartphone, I mean, it will be in 4G still in 2019.

所以大部分手機——智能手機，我的意思是，到 2019 年仍將使用 4G。

However, you mentioned about the AI and other product segment, yes, that will start to grow in 2019 and we expect a lot of new products other than the smartphone will contribute to 2019 7-nanometer business.

但是，您提到了 AI 和其他產品領域，是的，這將在 2019 年開始增長，我們預計智能手機以外的許多新產品將為 2019 年的 7 納米業務做出貢獻。

Sir, could new products actually be big enough to help you with a 5% to 10% revenue growth?

先生，新產品真的足夠大，可以幫助您實現 5% 到 10% 的收入增長嗎？

And I'm asking you this because this year, we have had adverse impact from customer inventory and cryptocurrency that impacted your overall growth target for 2018.

我問你這個是因為今年，我們受到了客戶庫存和加密貨幣的不利影響，影響了你 2018 年的整體增長目標。

But in '19, would new products offset any weakness that is associated with the mature products?

但是在 19 年，新產品會彌補與成熟產品相關的任何弱點嗎？

Well, in 2019, as I just mentioned, the inventory correction will be much less, in fact, as compared with the 2018, beginning of 2018.

好吧，在 2019 年，正如我剛才提到的，與 2018 年相比，2018 年初的庫存調整實際上要少得多。

So definitely, our growth rate in the 5% to 10% would be much likely in the high side, that's what I say.

所以可以肯定的是，我們 5% 到 10% 的增長率很可能偏高，這就是我所說的。

Not only because of the ...

不僅因為...

That's right, but...

沒錯，但是...

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi, accept our very positive outlook for '19, good.

所以 Mehdi，接受我們對 19 年的非常積極的展望，很好。

The next question is from the line of Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first question is on the China demand and capacity buildout.

我的第一個問題是關於中國的需求和產能建設。

Could you talk a little bit about the progress of the buildout for N16 in Nanjing?

能否介紹一下南京N16擴建的進展情況？

What is the schedule for phase 2?

第二階段的時間表是什麼？

And has there any change in plan both the weakness that we have seen in cryptocurrency demand for some of the Chinese customers.

計劃是否有任何變化，我們已經看到一些中國客戶對加密貨幣的需求疲軟。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

So Gokul's first question is he asks us to update our Nanjing fab's progress and he asks if we have any changes in plans to this ramp-up in Nanjing fab because of the weakness in cryptocurrency mining.

所以 Gokul 的第一個問題是他要求我們更新我們南京工廠的進展，他問我們是否因為加密貨幣挖礦的弱點而對南京工廠的擴產計劃有任何改變。

Nanjing, you want to answer that?

南京，你要回答這個問題嗎？

We had a 10,000 wafer per month installed capacity currently.

目前，我們每月的裝機容量為 10,000 片晶圓。

And then we're planning to increase the capacity to 20,000 wafer per month next year.

然後我們計劃明年將產能提高到每月 20,000 片晶圓。

And we are developing customer as well as some derivative technology that are related to the 16-nanometer.

我們正在開發客戶以及一些與16納米相關的衍生技術。

So we have progress as we planned.

所以我們按計劃取得了進展。

Okay.

好的。

So my second question is on N7 and N7+.

所以我的第二個問題是關於 N7 和 N7+。

Now TSMC appears to be in the best position to comment about the benefits of EUV given that you have N7 and N7+, one in production, one in risk production.

現在台積電似乎最適合評論 EUV 的好處，因為你有 N7 和 N7+，一個在生產中，一個在風險生產中。

Could you talk a little bit about the kind of improvements that we are seeing either from the EUV perspective or reduction in mask layers, et cetera, and the impact in terms of overall cycle time for the fab comparing N7 and N7+.

您能否談談我們從 EUV 的角度或掩模層的減少等方面看到的那種改進，以及比較 N7 和 N7+ 對晶圓廠整體週期時間的影響。

Okay, actually the question is about the EUV and how much of the benefit we can get from the EUV, right?

好的，實際上問題是關於 EUV 以及我們可以從 EUV 中獲得多少好處，對嗎？

Usually, if we are not using the EUV, sometimes for the very critical dimension on the N7, you have to -- or N7+, you have to use the 4 layers of lithography to pattern one of the critical dimension.

通常，如果我們不使用 EUV，有時對於 N7 上非常關鍵的尺寸，你必須——或 N7+，你必須使用 4 層光刻來圖案化關鍵尺寸之一。

Now using the EUV, you're just using 1 layer so that you reduce the cycle time by 4x of photolithography, 4x of etch.

現在使用 EUV，您只需使用 1 層，這樣您就可以將周期時間減少 4 倍的光刻和 4 倍的蝕刻。

Now you become 1 lithography, 1 etch.

現在你變成了 1 個光刻，1 個蝕刻。

In total, how many layers we reduced?

我們總共減少了多少層？

That depends on the customer's requirement, but usually I just give you a hint already, right, 4 layer can become 1 and we are replacing some of the 3 layers to become 1 and we have a few layers of that.

這取決於客戶的要求，但通常我已經給你提示了，對，4層可以變成1層，我們正在將3層中的一些替換成1層，我們有幾層。

So that give you a hint.

所以給你一個提示。

Cycle time reduction, definitely, because you do 4x into 1x, that's a big advantage.

肯定會縮短週期時間，因為您將 4 倍變成 1 倍，這是一個很大的優勢。

Productivity-wise, today, EUV is progress very well -- up to our expectation.

在生產力方面，今天，EUV 進展非常順利——符合我們的預期。

And in fact, TSMC has turned on the 250-watt power and we believe we are the only one company continuously run the 250 watts EUV power so far today.

事實上，台積電已經開啟了 250 瓦功率，我們相信我們是迄今為止唯一一家持續運行 250 瓦 EUV 功率的公司。

Okay.

好的。

Now we can come back to the floor.

現在我們可以回到地板上了。

Next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is on the trailing-edge profitability and outlook.

我的第一個問題是關於落後的盈利能力和前景。

So a couple of your peers in the past 12 -- well, past 2 years have decided to not -- to stop going advanced.

因此，在過去的 12 年中，您的一些同齡人 - 好吧，過去 2 年已經決定不 - 停止進步。

So now their strategy is to focus on the nodes they are already -- they already have and China is already ramping up some trailing edge technology capacity so it seems they are more focused on there and understand that, TSMC, as we generate a lot of the profit and cash flow from trailing-edge technology, so how do you see this dynamic going forward?

所以現在他們的戰略是專注於他們已經擁有的節點 - 他們已經擁有並且中國已經在提升一些後緣技術能力所以他們似乎更專注於那裡並且明白台積電，因為我們產生了很多前沿技術帶來的利潤和現金流，那麼您如何看待這種發展趨勢？

Is there potential for you to -- for this to negative impact your trailing edge profitability?

您是否有可能 - 這會對您的後緣盈利能力產生負面影響？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Actually, I don't want to comment on my competitors' strategy.

實際上，我不想評論競爭對手的戰略。

But let me, again, stress our mature nodes' strategy.

但是，讓我再次強調我們成熟節點的策略。

We continue to develop some of the specialty technology to meet the customers' requirement, right, I just stated in that.

我們繼續開發一些專業技術來滿足客戶的要求，對，我剛才說了。

And yes, a lot of specialty technology we are doing, I give you some example already, power management IC, CMOS, MEMS, everything.

是的，我們正在做很多專業技術，我已經給你舉了一些例子，電源管理 IC、CMOS、MEMS 等等。

So that will help us to compete with our competitor.

因此，這將有助於我們與競爭對手競爭。

Actually, this kind of specialty technology particularly we have to work with the customer.

實際上，這種專業技術尤其是我們必須與客戶合作。

And so that's why I say working with the customer to meet their requirement.

這就是為什麼我說與客戶合作以滿足他們的要求。

And that, in turn, to keep TSMC's business.

而這反過來又能保住台積電的業務。

And that's a way that we migrate the logic technology -- pure logic technology to the more advanced node.

這是我們將邏輯技術——純邏輯技術遷移到更高級節點的一種方式。

But for the existing capacity, we develop into the specialty technology.

但是對於現有的能力，我們發展到專業技術。

And so our strategy is still meet customer's requirement, but we don't increase the existing logic capacity.

所以我們的策略仍然是滿足客戶的需求，但我們不增加現有的邏輯容量。

Right.

正確的。

But I thought TSMC has been doing this for a long time...

但是我以為台積電已經做了很長時間了……

Yes.

是的。

So you'll keep doing this?

所以你會繼續這樣做嗎？

But the real change is not what you are doing, but the real change is what your competitors, the dynamic, there are more competition threat from it?

但是真正的改變不是你在做什麼，而是真正的改變是你的競爭對手有什麼動態，有更多來自競爭的威脅嗎？

Well, we already have a lot of competition.

好吧，我們已經有很多競爭了。

Before they announced that, we still think there are competitors, no doubt about it.

在他們宣布之前，我們仍然認為存在競爭對手，這是毫無疑問的。

Not because they dropped out of some of the technology node they don't want to do, no, we are not going to change our strategy because of that.

不是因為他們退出了一些他們不想做的技術節點，不，我們不會因此改變我們的戰略。

Fair.

公平的。

Second question is still on the node profitability.

第二個問題還是關於節點的盈利能力。

So I remember the rule of thumb for TSMC: node profitability is N-minus-2 node usually have very good or probably the highest profitability of -- for TSMC.

所以我記得台積電的經驗法則：節點盈利能力是 N-minus-2 節點通常具有非常好的或可能是台積電最高的盈利能力。

So now we're already ramping up 7, so the N-minus-2 for you is 16.

所以現在我們已經增加了 7，所以你的 N-minus-2 是 16。

Understand that the 28 used to be very profitable, as Lora just said.

明白28以前是很賺錢的，就像Lora剛才說的。

So I'm just wondering, if based on the -- assuming 16 and 20 -- we compare 16 and 28, assuming they are both depreciated at the same utilization rate, will 16 be more profitable than 28?

所以我只是想知道，如果基於——假設 16 和 20——我們比較 16 和 28，假設它們都以相同的利用率折舊，16 會比 28 更有利可圖嗎？

Or similar?

還是類似的？

Well, this is very specific, you asked the profitability.

嗯，這個很具體，你問的是盈利能力。

Lora, are we going to answer that one?

勞拉，我們要回答那個問題嗎？

I probably cannot quantify that, but we don't know whether you said N-minus-2 is the most profitable node is correct.

我可能無法量化，但我們不知道你說的 N-minus-2 是最賺錢的節點是否正確。

But eventually, I think, as we continue to improve productivity and we keep very competitive, specialty technology for the mature node, our margin will be all very good.

但最終，我認為，隨著我們不斷提高生產力，並為成熟節點保持極具競爭力的專業技術，我們的利潤率將非常可觀。

Okay, let me ask from another perspective is that the -- some of this capacity on 16 or 20 was installed in 2014, '15, so which means that they will become fully depreciated very soon.

好的，讓我從另一個角度問，16 或 20 的一些容量是在 2014 年 15 年安裝的，所以這意味著它們很快就會完全折舊。

So which means that these will become margin profitability tailwind for TSMC starting from next year and partially offset some of the 28 headwinds.

因此，這意味著從明年開始，這些將成為台積電利潤率的有利因素，並部分抵消 28 項不利因素中的一些。

Is that the right way to look at it?

這是看待它的正確方式嗎？

We certainly expect that, all right.

我們當然希望如此，好吧。

You are talking about a fully depreciated tool to generate more profit.

你說的是一個完全折舊的工具來產生更多的利潤。

Yes, you can calculate.

是的，你可以計算。

We have a 5-year depreciation period.

我們有 5 年的折舊期。

So which means that by the same time next year, regardless of the utilization rate or whatever pricing, 16 will likely to be more profitable than 28?

那麼這意味著到明年同一時間，無論利用率或定價如何，16 可能會比 28 更有利可圖？

Our -- actually, TSMC's 28-nanometer is very profitable.

我們——實際上，台積電的 28 納米非常有利可圖。

And that is, what should I say, you say 16 is better than 28?

那就是，我該怎麼說，你說16比28好？

And I hope so, but I cannot tell you the true number.

我希望如此，但我不能告訴你真實的數字。

I think our profitability is not depending on which node is better than which other node.

我認為我們的盈利能力不取決於哪個節點比另一個節點更好。

We want all the nodes to be very profitable.

我們希望所有節點都非常有利可圖。

Okay.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So after a recent industry consolidation, does that change anything like your bargaining power and also your thinking about cash return?

那麼在最近的行業整合之後，這是否會改變您的議價能力以及您對現金回報的看法？

So what does it change your thinking about, for example, the payout ratio going forward?

那麼，它會改變您對未來派息率等方面的想法嗎？

The industry consolidation?

行業整合？

Industry consolidation?

行業整合？

Yes, I mean, GLOBALFOUNDRIES exit 7-nanometer and Intel seems to be struggling with their leading edge.

是的，我的意思是，GLOBALFOUNDRIES 退出 7 納米，而英特爾似乎正在為他們的領先優勢而苦苦掙扎。

So I would assume competition in leading edge is getting less, right?

所以我認為領先優勢的競爭正在減少，對吧？

So in that case, maybe your bargaining power can increase and also you have more cash may free up to return to shareholders.

所以在那種情況下，也許你的議價能力會增加，而且你有更多的現金可以用來回報股東。

I don't want to say that because of my competitor.

我不想因為我的競爭對手而這麼說。

Well, in fact, Intel is my customer, so we respect their performance, of course.

好吧，事實上，英特爾是我的客戶，所以我們當然尊重他們的表現。

But TSMC's strategy actually is working with the customer.

但台積電的策略實際上是與客戶合作。

And whether I have a competition or I don't have a competition, that's independent of that.

不管我有比賽還是沒有比賽，那都是獨立的。

And so we think we offer a very good technology value to our customers.

因此，我們認為我們為客戶提供了非常好的技術價值。

Customers are happy, so we are working together and growing the business together.

客戶很高興，所以我們一起工作，一起發展業務。

I'm not going to tell you that's my pricing strategy, that's not in discussion.

我不會告訴你那是我的定價策略，不在討論之列。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

So your current payout ratio is around 60%, right?

所以你目前的支付率大約是 60%，對吧？

So in what kind of circumstance in the long term would you consider to revise your payout ratio to maybe 70% or even above?

那麼從長遠來看，在什麼樣的情況下，您會考慮將派息率修改為 70% 甚至更高？

Actually, we have been paying around 70% in the past few years.

實際上，過去幾年我們一直在支付70%左右的費用。

And I have said many times, and with 5% to 10% growth, we are confident we can continue to generate increasing free cash flow.

我已經說過很多次，隨著 5% 到 10% 的增長，我們有信心可以繼續產生更多的自由現金流。

That will be the source for the increasing cash dividend.

這將是增加現金分紅的來源。

So we're still within that kind of commitment.

所以我們仍然在那種承諾之內。

And next follow-up is regarding that EUV question, right?

下一個跟進是關於那個 EUV 問題，對吧？

I know it could be too direct to ask about revenue contribution from 7-nanometer plus.

我知道詢問 7 納米以上的收入貢獻可能過於直接。

But from another angle, what keep your customer hesitating to adopt 7-nanometer plus, right, because you mentioned few tapes.

但從另一個角度來看，是什麼讓你的客戶猶豫是否採用 7 納米 plus，對吧，因為你提到的磁帶很少。

Is there any concern about -- sorry, the throughput of EUV or capacity of EUV, what keep the customer hesitating about EUV adoption next year?

是否有任何擔憂 - 抱歉，EUV 的吞吐量或 EUV 的容量，是什麼讓客戶對明年採用 EUV 猶豫不決？

No, let me give you some explanation.

不，讓我給你一些解釋。

Because of TSMC's 7-nanometer is very successful, so customer use the design on 7-nanometer first.

因為台積電的7納米非常成功，所以客戶首先使用7納米上的設計。

But 7 plus certainly has some advantages, right.

不過7plus肯定有一些優勢吧。

We're using the EUV, we have a shorter cycle time and I just say that it's kind of better pattern control, so that means your critical dimension has been tightly controlled that help the performance also.

我們正在使用 EUV，我們的周期時間更短，我只是說它是一種更好的圖案控制，這意味著您的關鍵尺寸得到了嚴格控制，這也有助於提高性能。

So we expect the customer moving their second wave product.

所以我們希望客戶移動他們的第二波產品。

A lot of them will go to 7 plus.

他們中的很多人會去7加。

And any concern about the EUV's maturity, that actually is what you are asking.

對 EUV 成熟度的任何擔憂，實際上就是您要問的問題。

Yes.

是的。

Everything sounds very decent, right?

一切聽起來都很不錯，對吧？

So what was the issue?

那麼問題是什麼？

Price or any issue?

價格還是什麼問題？

What's the issue?

有什麼問題？

Okay.

好的。

EUV progressed steadily to our expectation.

EUV 穩步推進，符合我們的預期。

But as compared with deep UV photolithography, the maturity is not comparable, not yet, not yet.

但是和深紫外光刻相比，成熟度是沒有可比性的，還沒有，還沒有。

EUV is still ramping up and we hope that the productivity can be better and better.

EUV仍在加速，我們希望生產力能越來越好。

But today, not yet.

但是今天，還沒有。

You just look at how many deep UV we have and how many EUV we have, you know what I'm talking about, I mean, that in the industry, just say in the industry.

你只要看看我們有多少深紫外線，我們有多少極紫外線，你就知道我在說什麼，我的意思是，在行業中，就在行業中說。

Okay.

好的。

Lastly, if I may, right?

最後，如果可以的話，對吧？

I think AI semi has been a very topical growth driver.

我認為 AI semi 一直是一個非常熱門的增長動力。

So I think the recently it is getting more clear that some ASICs claim their performance can be 8x better than GPU.

所以我認為最近越來越清楚一些 ASIC 聲稱它們的性能可以比 GPU 好 8 倍。

Those are general purpose, right?

那些是通用的，對吧？

So now with lots of ASIC coming on line, do you think that is going to impact your overall AI semiconductor revenue?

那麼現在隨著大量 ASIC 上線，您認為這會影響您的整體 AI 半導體收入嗎？

Or put it in another perspective, do you expect any reacceleration or slowdown of your AI semiconductor business in the coming year?

或者換個角度來看，您預計未來一年您的人工智能半導體業務會重新加速還是放緩？

I think the AI's application would be everywhere, actually, from the edge server or to the end device that's just like the smartphone of everybody.

我認為 AI 的應用實際上無處不在，從邊緣服務器到終端設備，就像每個人的智能手機一樣。

So this kind of a development is to our advantage because TSMC certainly have a technology leadership.

所以這種發展對我們有利，因為台積電當然擁有技術領先地位。

In order the AI would be effective, you need a very advanced technology for the highest performance computing.

為了使人工智能有效，您需要一種非常先進的技術來實現最高性能的計算。

So I don't see the effect that you are talking about, this application is better than that so that affected the growth or something.

所以我看不到你所說的效果，這個應用程序比那個影響增長或其他什麼的更好。

No, it will be continues to grow.

不，它會繼續增長。

And I expect this growth much faster than I predicted here.

我預計這種增長比我在這裡預測的要快得多。

Next will be coming from Deutsche Bank as a follow-up question.

接下來將來自德意志銀行作為後續問題。

Regarding the 7-nanometer tapeout next year.

關於明年的7納米流片。

So C.C., can you give some color regarding the portion of 7 nano versus of 7 nano plus EUV?

那麼 C.C.，你能給出一些關於 7 納米與 7 納米加 EUV 的顏色嗎？

So customer shift to 7 nano plus EUV, the question would be in the second half next year into 2020?

所以客戶轉向 7 納米加 EUV，問題是明年下半年到 2020 年？

Your question is...

你的問題是...

You mentioned more than 100 tapeout numbers, right, for next year, right, by the end of next year.

你提到了 100 多個 tapeout 數字，對，明年，對，到明年年底。

So would the majority of that be 7-nanometer or 7-nanometer plus EUV?

那麼其中大部分是 7 納米還是 7 納米加 EUV？

Next year is still 7-nanometer because 7 plus, we're working with customers and some of the customer moving a little bit faster, some of them -- and for those customers already in the 7-nanometer, they are planning on the second wave products in the 7 plus.

明年仍然是 7 納米，因為 7 plus，我們正在與客戶合作，一些客戶移動速度更快，其中一些——對於那些已經在 7 納米的客戶，他們正在計劃第二個7 plus中的wave產品。

Okay.

好的。

So next year, I can say most of them are still in 7. But then activity will start to rapidly grow in the second half and then 2020 that will be even grow faster.

所以明年，我可以說他們中的大多數人仍在 7。但隨後活動將在下半年開始快速增長，然後 2020 年將增長得更快。

Okay.

好的。

But for the whole year tapeout number, right, so can we say that 7-nanometer plus EUV tapeout number increase quarter by quarter through end of next year?

但是對於全年的流片數量，對吧，那麼我們可以說 7 納米+ EUV 流片數量在明年年底之前逐季增加嗎？

Can we say that?

我們可以這麼說嗎？

Will increase quarter by quarter?

會逐季增加嗎？

Yes, you can say that.

是的，你可以這麼說。

This is still a smaller portion of the total 7-nanometer node.

這仍然是整個 7 納米節點的一小部分。

Okay.

好的。

So based on the 7-nanometer plus EUV tapeout by customer planning, right, so can you expect the 2020 we will see very big volume 7 nano plus EUV mix production and the revenue contribution?

因此，基於客戶計劃的 7 納米加 EUV 流片，對吧，那麼你能預計到 2020 年我們將看到非常大的 7 納米加 EUV 混合生產和收入貢獻嗎？

Because you mentioned increase quarter by quarter, right?

因為你提到逐季增長，對吧？

So we're just trying to find out if it will become very big revenue contributor and -- yes.

所以我們只是想知道它是否會成為非常大的收入貢獻者 - 是的。

If I can forecast well, I mean, that 1 tapeout, especially for some of the application, it takes about 1 year to -- for ramp-up.

如果我能很好地預測，我的意思是，那 1 次流片，特別是對於某些應用程序，需要大約 1 年的時間來進行提升。

So 7+ will be increasing, but the revenue I would expect 2020, '21 start to see the big number.

所以 7+ 會增加，但我預計到 2020 年，'21 年的收入會開始增加。

But not 2019, not the first half of 2020.

但不是 2019 年，不是 2020 年上半年。

Okay.

好的。

How about second half next year?

明年下半年呢？

Do you think that, that will be ...

你認為那會是...

You continue to nail down the number?

你繼續敲定多少？

Sorry.

對不起。

Okay.

好的。

2019 less than US$ 1 billion.

2019 年不到 10 億美元。

Less than US$ 1 billion.

不到 10 億美元。

That's good enough.

這已經足夠了。

All right.

好的。

Hopefully next question will be better and it will be coming from UBS, Bill Lu.

希望下一個問題會更好，它將來自瑞銀，Bill Lu。

So it's a bit more of a long-term question.

所以這是一個更長期的問題。

Hoping to ask you about R&D and maybe this is both for Dr. Wei as well as Lora.

希望問你關於研發的問題，也許這對魏博士和勞拉來說都是。

If you look at Moore's Law, certainly not getting easier.

如果你看看摩爾定律，肯定不會變得更容易。

If you look at the number of players that can share the R&D burden, I think it's getting less.

如果你看一下可以分擔研發負擔的玩家數量，我認為它正在變少。

And number three, TSMC is clearly ahead of the competitors now in terms of process development.

第三，台積電在工藝開發方面現在明顯領先於競爭對手。

So as you look out the next 2, 3 years, do you have to think about R&D increasing at a faster rate?

因此，當您展望未來 2、3 年時，您是否必須考慮以更快的速度增加研發？

We do see the -- continue going on the smaller geometry takes a lot of effort to develop the technology.

我們確實看到 - 繼續進行更小的幾何形狀需要付出很多努力來開發技術。

But I would like to use TSMC Founder's wording to answer your question.

但是我想用台積電方正的措辭來回答你的問題。

So long as some people can develop it, TSMC will be there.

只要有人能開發出來，台積電就在那裡。

That's our commitment to the customer, all right?

這是我們對客戶的承諾，好嗎？

And in addition to smaller geometry, actually, TSMC also develop the wafer level's packaging, advanced packaging to help the customer improve their systems' performance.

而除了更小的幾何尺寸外，實際上，台積電還開發了晶圓級封裝，先進的封裝，以幫助客戶提高系統性能。

And we think we have these 2 opening heads and so we are in a very good position to compete in that field.

我們認為我們有這兩個開放的頭腦，所以我們在那個領域處於非常有利的競爭地位。

I guess, I'm not doubting TSMC's abilities to develop it.

我想，我並不懷疑台積電開發它的能力。

But I think TSMC has taken on more of the burden now, and you also have to add the cost for advanced packaging R&D as well, right?

但是我覺得台積電現在承擔了更多的負擔，你們也要加上先進封裝研發的成本，對吧？

So I'm just talking about the cost.

所以我只談成本。

Yes.

是的。

The cost?

成本？

Actually, I would like to say the value of our technology, all right?

其實我想說一下我們技術的價值，好嗎？

That's what we discuss with our customer.

這就是我們與客戶討論的內容。

The cost, we continue to working on it, and we hope TSMC has a capability and ability to lower down the cost as we already proven in the previous years.

成本，我們繼續努力，我們希望台積電有能力降低成本，正如我們在前幾年已經證明的那樣。

But I think Bill's question is whether or not R&D, as a percent of our revenue, will increase in the future because of our taking up a bigger burden.

但我認為比爾的問題是研發占我們收入的百分比是否會因為我們承擔更大的負擔而在未來增加。

We might, but I cannot tell you that exact number.

我們可能會，但我不能告訴你確切的數字。

So that's a cost.

所以這是一個成本。

All right.

好的。

Follow-up question from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

花旗集團 Roland Shu 的後續問題。

Just a follow-up question for the profitability but I'm talking about the backend side because since last quarter, you kept talking about that you have this improving profitability on backend.

只是關於盈利能力的後續問題，但我說的是後端方面，因為自上個季度以來，你一直在談論你在後端提高了盈利能力。

And also in second quarter, in last quarter, you said on the backend, actually, the -- was able to partly offset the lower gross margin from this poor product mix.

而且在第二季度，在上一季度，你在後端說，實際上，能夠部分抵消這種糟糕的產品組合導致的較低毛利率。

But consider your backend, it's just a relative small part of your total revenue, so it has to be -- with a very good gross margin in order to partially offset the unfavorable product mix.

但是考慮一下你的後端，它只佔你總收入的一小部分，所以它必須是 - 具有非常好的毛利率才能部分抵消不利的產品組合。

So how does your backend gross margin compare to your corporate average right now?

那麼，您目前的後台毛利率與公司平均水平相比如何？

Backend margin is indeed improving, but we don't compare backend margin with corporate average.

後端利潤率確實在提高，但我們不會將後端利潤率與企業平均水平進行比較。

Because backend, the nature of backend is there's a very high asset turnover and lower margin compared with wafer.

因為後端，後端的本質是資產周轉率非常高，利潤率比晶圓低。

So the overall investment return is pretty good.

所以整體的投資回報還是很不錯的。

If you look at ROIC, it's very good, so we don't compare backend margin with corporate average.

如果你看一下 ROIC，它非常好，所以我們不會將後端利潤率與公司平均水平進行比較。

So if our backend revenue continue to increase, it may dilute a little bit of corporate margin, but overall investment is pretty good, okay?

因此，如果我們的後端收入繼續增加，可能會稀釋一點公司利潤，但總體投資還是不錯的，好嗎？

And we have seen our advanced packaging.

我們已經看到了我們的先進封裝。

The -- we continue to invest in capital, and we see more customer adoptions.

- 我們繼續投資於資本，我們看到更多的客戶採用。

So we are increasing the size and the business volume of the backend.

所以我們正在增加後端的規模和業務量。

And of course, we continue improving the productivity.

當然，我們會繼續提高生產力。

So backend is -- will be accretive to TSMC going forward.

所以後端是 - 將增加台積電的發展。

Okay.

好的。

So can we have the rough number of how much the revenue is coming from backend so far?

那麼我們能否得到到目前為止來自後端的收入的粗略數字？

It's around 2.5 billion this year.

今年大約是25億。

2.5 billion?

25億？

Does this include wafer bumping?

這包括晶圓凸塊嗎？

Or is this purely for InFO and the CoWoS?

或者這純粹是為了 InFO 和 CoWoS？

Including all the backend that including the wafer bumping, testing, InFO, CoWoS, everything.

包括所有後端，包括晶圓凸塊、測試、InFO、CoWoS，一切。

Okay.

好的。

That's roughly a little more than 7% of this year's revenue.

這大約佔今年收入的 7% 多一點。

Okay.

好的。

But Lora, you said on your -- if the backend revenue exceed a certain portion of the total revenue, probably, the corporate average gross margin will be diluted.

但是勞拉，你說過——如果後端收入超過總收入的一定部分，公司平均毛利率可能會被攤薄。

So what is the threshold percentage of the backend?

那麼後端的閾值百分比是多少呢？

No, the backend is only 7%.

不，後端只有7%。

It's still low compared to our very big wafer size.

與我們非常大的晶圓尺寸相比，它仍然很低。

But backend, I think the backend is probably cyclical because this is very concentrated on several segment.

但是後端，我認為後端可能是周期性的，因為它非常集中在幾個部分。

Cyclicality is more of an issue.

週期性是一個更大的問題。

But in terms of financial return, we have guarding our model.

但就財務回報而言，我們要保護我們的模式。

So we're not worried about them.

所以我們不擔心他們。

Of course, we continue to improve the profitability in that.

當然，我們會繼續提高盈利能力。

Follow-up question from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan 的後續問題。

Sorry for coming and begging for another follow-up, right?

很抱歉來求另一個跟進，對吧？

So I think because, this time, market weakness, so I need to -- there will be microscope on your comments on near term, right?

所以我認為因為這一次市場疲軟，所以我需要——你對近期的評論會有顯微鏡，對吧？

So C.C., you previously mentioned that 2019 inventory correction in 1Q wouldn't be as severe as the beginning of this year, right?

那麼C.C.，你之前提到2019年第一季度的庫存調整不會像今年年初那麼嚴重，對吧？

So -- I don't know why now you have this kind of visibility.

所以 - 我不知道為什麼現在你有這種知名度。

Is it because of customers order behavior or what have you seen for the coming 1Q that can make your inventory correction less severe than the beginning of this year?

是因為客戶的訂單行為還是您對即將到來的 1Q 的看法，可以使您的庫存調整不如今年年初那麼嚴重？

You ask where I get that -- those information to get the conclusion that next year's 1Q inventory correction would be less?

你問我從哪裡得到的——這些信息可以得出明年第一季度的庫存修正會更少的結論？

Less severe than this year, yes.

沒有今年那麼嚴重，是的。

Less severe.

不太嚴重。

That's interesting, because of -- we work with customers, right?

這很有趣，因為——我們與客戶合作，對吧？

And Lora just mentioned about those market segment, communication, consumer and computer, and we look at that, we work with the customer and we understand their business, not 100%, but we understand quite well.

Lora 剛剛提到了那些細分市場、通信、消費者和計算機，我們看到了這一點，我們與客戶合作，我們了解他們的業務，不是 100%，但我們了解得很好。

And so we can do this kind of forecast, okay?

所以我們可以做這種預測，好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So is that fair to link the industrial segment declined to 8" utilization rate?

那麼將工業部門的利用率下降到 8" 是否公平？

Can I assume that that 8" utilization is not that full -- as full as before?

我可以假設 8 英寸的利用率沒有那麼高——和以前一樣高嗎？

Is that a fair assumption?

這是一個公平的假設嗎？

You can repeat what I said to answer that question, all right?

你可以重複我說過的話來回答那個問題，好嗎？

I mean, that's -- you're asking a very specific that utilization and the customers' demand.

我的意思是，那是——你問的是一個非常具體的利用率和客戶的需求。

Actually, let me say that we are very optimistic because of -- we work with the customer.

實際上，讓我說我們非常樂觀，因為我們與客戶合作。

As I said, we work with the customer.

正如我所說，我們與客戶合作。

We understand their business.

我們了解他們的業務。

And going forward, we know that they are doing the inventory adjustment.

展望未來，我們知道他們正在進行庫存調整。

But they also discuss about what they want in the 2019, which I'm not going to give you some forecast today, not yet.

但他們也討論了他們在 2019 年想要什麼，我今天不會給你一些預測，還沒有。

Questions will be coming from CL Securities, Sebastian Hou.

問題將來自 CL Securities，Sebastian Hou。

A follow-up on the advanced packaging.

先進封裝的後續行動。

I have the impression that of this year, more than 50 7-nanometer tape-out, a huge part of that or a large portion of the customers will use our advanced packaging solution.

我的印像是，今年有超過50個7納米流片，其中很大一部分或很大一部分客戶將使用我們的先進封裝解決方案。

So moving to next year, so our tape-out number will be 100 or 100 more on 7. So it's still -- that kind of the percentage was still the same which means that the advanced packaging customers on 7-nanometer will also double?

所以轉到明年，我們的流片數量將在 7 上增加 100 或 100。所以它仍然 - 這種百分比仍然相同，這意味著 7 納米的先進封裝客戶也將增加一倍？

Let me answer the question that advanced packaging, that included CoWoS and InFO.

讓我回答高級封裝的問題，其中包括 CoWoS 和 InFO。

And the CoWoS is for very high-speed performance, such as like graphic chip such as some of the networking processor.

而CoWoS是針對非常高速的性能，比如像圖形芯片這樣的一些網絡處理器。

So those are huge in CoWoS.

所以這些在 CoWoS 中是巨大的。

And for the InFO, that a lot of them are using InFO, the mobile phone business.

對於 InFO，他們中的很多人都在使用手機業務 InFO。

So that I can answer you, but I cannot give you, say, which one.

這樣我就可以回答你，但我不能給你，比如說，哪一個。

No, no, I'm not asking which one.

不，不，我不是問哪個。

I'm just asking that, still, of the next year, 100 tape-out, a large portion of this using our...

我只是問，仍然，明年，100 流片，其中很大一部分使用我們的...

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

Well, sorry that I misunderstood your question.

好吧，對不起，我誤解了你的問題。

So the next year, the InFO for the mobile phone application was -- some of them will move into the high performance computing also because that offer a little better cost structure.

所以明年，手機應用程序的 InFO 是——其中一些將轉向高性能計算，因為這提供了更好的成本結構。

And the CoWoS continue to be the high end, so high performance computing product.

而 CoWoS 仍然是高端、高性能計算產品。

And we also introduced SOIC, as I just mentioned, that even much better system performance.

而且我們還引入了 SOIC，正如我剛才提到的那樣，系統性能要好得多。

So we continue to progress our technology, and that -- did that answer your question?

因此，我們繼續推進我們的技術，這是否回答了您的問題？

Sort of.

有點。

Well, anyway, my question is very simple, actually.

嗯，不管怎樣，其實我的問題很簡單。

I just want to -- I simply just want to know that the -- your earlier comments on the large portion of the 7-nanometer customer tape-out will use our advanced packaging.

我只是想——我只是想知道——你之前對大部分 7 納米客戶流片的評論將使用我們的先進封裝。

And now our tape-out number is like, based on your comments, it seems like double from this year to next year.

現在，根據您的評論，我們的流片數量似乎從今年到明年翻了一番。

So this large portion still apply on the double -- doubling the 7-nanometer tape-out next year.

所以這一大部分仍然適用於雙倍 - 明年將 7 納米流片加倍。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

Oh, I see.

我懂了。

Develop one new backend process -- packaging process, it actually will last for many years.

開發一個新的後端流程——打包流程，它實際上會持續很多年。

So next year, so 7-nanometer or 7 plus application for those products are still using the InFO and also using the CoWoS, yes.

所以明年，這些產品的 7 納米或 7 加應用仍在使用 InFO，並且還在使用 CoWoS，是的。

And whether you stop or not, I am not ready to answer that question yet.

不管你是否停下來，我還沒準備好回答這個問題。

Okay.

好的。

That's clear.

這很清楚。

Second follow-up is I remember, last quarter when, C.C., you talked about the 28-nanometer outlook or you mentioned 2019 will come down and expect the recovery -- nice recovery in 2020 because of the 22-nanometer's adoption.

第二個跟進是我記得，上個季度，C.C.，你談到了 28 納米的前景，或者你提到 2019 年將會下降並期待復甦——由於 22 納米的採用，2020 年的複蘇會很好。

So today, you just mentioned that you expect the overcapacity will be a norm for several years.

所以今天，您剛才提到您預計產能過剩將成為未來幾年的常態。

So what I interpret is that it sounds to me, over the past 3 months, you've become more cautious, conservative on 28 compared to 3 months ago.

所以我的解釋是，在我看來，在過去的 3 個月裡，與 3 個月前相比，你在 28 日變得更加謹慎和保守。

Am I interpreting that right?

我的解釋對嗎？

You maybe right because of recently, a lot of capacity has been built on 28-nanometer as compared with 3 months, 6 months ago, right?

你可能是對的，因為最近，與 3 個月、6 個月前相比，28 納米已經建立了很多容量，對吧？

So that means overcapacity a little bit more severe than previously predicted.

因此，這意味著產能過剩比之前預測的要嚴重一些。

However, I would like to stress again -- I mean that TSMC develop shrink of the geometry for customer to gain the benefit of performance and better density.

但是，我想再次強調——我的意思是台積電為客戶開發幾何尺寸的縮小以獲得性能和更高密度的好處。

We also develop specialties.

我們還開發專業。

So that's why I say that we have confidence a couple of years later that our 28-nanometer will enter into a new era with a high utilization rate again.

所以這就是為什麼我說我們有信心在幾年後我們的 28 納米將再次進入一個高利用率的新時代。

Do you view those excessive 28-nanometer capacity or the more they expanded newly add 28-nanometer capacity is a real threat to you or they're non-event?

您是否認為那些過剩的 28 納米容量或更多他們新增加的 28 納米容量是對您的真正威脅還是它們不是事件？

I mean, they're effective capacity or they're...

我的意思是，它們是有效容量，或者它們是...

We always are competing in the market, whether it be overcapacity.

我們總是在市場上競爭，無論是產能過剩。

But of course, let me answer the question directly.

但是，當然，讓我直接回答這個問題。

Overcapacity is not good for any player in this field, definitely.

產能過剩對這個領域的任何參與者都不利，這是肯定的。

Okay?

好的？

All right.

好的。

I think given the consideration of time, we'll just have Randy Abrams to have the last question.

我認為考慮到時間，我們將讓 Randy Abrams 來回答最後一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

Just one quick follow-up to that last line of discussion because just in the last few months, on the 28, have you changed your view on the 16 migration?

只是對最後一行討論的快速跟進，因為就在過去幾個月，在 28 日，您是否改變了對 16 次遷移的看法？

Because one factor -- some foundries, if they stop at 28, can address the 16.

因為有一個因素——一些代工廠，如果他們停在 28 個，就可以解決 16 個問題。

So are you taking a more aggressive approach?

那麼你是否採取了更激進的方法？

So is part of your view on 28 view getting more positive on 16, and you're trying to encourage more customers to migrate to that node where there's fewer players?

那麼，您對 28 視圖的部分看法是否在 16 上變得更加積極，並且您正試圖鼓勵更多客戶遷移到玩家較少的節點？

So your question is, are we going to repeat this kind of a 28 migration on 16?

所以你的問題是，我們是否要在 16 上重複這種 28 的遷移？

Well, just, in the last few months, are you also seeing more and more customer's demand to actually migrate to 16?

嗯，只是，在過去的幾個月裡，您是否也看到越來越多的客戶要求實際遷移到 16 位？

And is it also more your strategy with some competitors not moving on, you actually have less -- a bit less competition on 16 and below?

在一些競爭對手沒有繼續前進的情況下，這是否也是您的策略，實際上您在 16 歲及以下的競爭更少了？

Yes, we have less competition in 16 and below, yes.

是的，我們在 16 歲及以下的比賽較少，是的。

But then so long as you have 1 competitor, that's good enough, right?

但是只要你有 1 個競爭對手，那就足夠了，對吧？

I mean that you have to work really hard to compete.

我的意思是你必須非常努力地工作才能競爭。

Okay.

好的。

But I guess, on the customer side, are you starting to see more -- as part of your 28 coming down, you're actually seeing more customers with an urgency or desire to actually do that shrink?

但我想，在客戶方面，你是否開始看到更多——作為你 28 歲下降的一部分，你實際上看到更多的客戶有緊迫感或希望實際進行縮水？

So you're seeing any change in that cadence of customers moving from 28 to 16?

所以你看到客戶從 28 歲到 16 歲的節奏有什麼變化嗎？

Can you be more specific?

你可以說得更詳細點嗎？

Your question is...

你的問題是...

Just a view -- you're now -- you do feel like there's more capacity on 28.

只是一個觀點——你現在——你確實覺得 28 號有更多的容量。

Yes.

是的。

But flip side, are you seeing some of the demand you previously expected on 28 now shifting to 16 and 12?

但另一方面，您是否看到您之前預期的 28 日的一些需求現在轉移到 16 日和 12 日？

Oh, oh, okay.

哦，哦，好的。

A lot of my competitors can do 28-nanometer.

我的很多競爭對手都可以做 28 納米。

But not a lot of my competitors can do 16- or 14-nanometer, at least for today.

但我的競爭對手中沒有多少能做到 16 或 14 納米，至少在今天是這樣。

And so far, we did not see the same phenomena as a 28-nanometer.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到與 28 納米相同的現象。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Yes, just more about demand, do you see more customers now trying to make that shift to 16, so on the customer side?

是的，更多的是關於需求，你是否看到更多的客戶現在試圖將其轉變為 16，所以在客戶方面？

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

We will continue doing this way, actually, that the customer migrate faster than we expected into 16, right?

我們將繼續這樣做，實際上，客戶遷移到 16 的速度比我們預期的要快，對嗎？

And you expect that in the 16 or 14 will migrate faster than we expected into 10 or 7.

你預計 16 或 14 將比我們預期的更快地遷移到 10 或 7。

No, the question is now 28, you're more worried about oversupply.

不，現在的問題是28，你更擔心供過於求。

Is part of that from you're seeing more customers migrate to 16?

部分原因是您看到更多客戶遷移到 16 歲嗎？

Yes, that -- the answer is yes.

是的，答案是肯定的。

And that they migrate into 10 and 7 also, so they're faster than we expected, yes.

而且它們也遷移到 10 和 7，所以它們比我們預期的要快，是的。

Okay.

好的。

This will conclude our conference today.

我們今天的會議到此結束。

Please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

請注意，會議重播將在 4 小時後提供。

Transcripts will be available 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

成績單將從現在起 24 小時內提供，兩者都可以通過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。