台積電 ADR (TSM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Happy New Year to everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外語）祝大家新年快樂，歡迎參加台積電2019年第四季度財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Deputy Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係副總監，也是今天的主持人 Jeff Su。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

（操作說明）由於世界各地的投資者正在觀看本次會議，我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year of 2019, followed by our guidance for the first quarter of 2020.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德先生將總結我們在2019年第四季度和2019年全年的運營情況，然後是我們對2020年第一季度的指導.

Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生與台積電總裁C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

隨後，台積電董事長劉曉波博士將主持問答環節，三位高管都將回答您的問題。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的財報會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

So please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

因此，請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想把麥克風交給台積電首席財務官黃文德先生，以了解運營總結和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Happy New Year, everyone.

祝大家新年快樂。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of full year 2019.

我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和 2019 年全年回顧開始。

After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter of 2020.

之後，我將為 2020 年第一季度提供指導。

Fourth quarter revenue increased 8.3% sequentially to TWD 317 billion, driven by high-end smartphones, initial 5G deployment and HPC-related applications using TSMC's industry-leading 7-nanometer technology.

第四季度收入環比增長 8.3% 至 3,170 億新台幣，這得益於高端智能手機、初始 5G 部署和使用台積電行業領先 7 納米技術的 HPC 相關應用。

Gross margin increased 2.6 percentage points sequentially to 50.2%, thanks to a higher level of capacity utilization and continuous cost improvement, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率環比增長 2.6 個百分點至 50.2%，這得益於更高的產能利用率和持續的成本改善，部分被不利的匯率所抵消。

Total operating expenses increased by TWD 3.6 billion, reflecting higher development activities for 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer as well as opening expenses in preparation for 5-nanometer ramp.

總運營費用增加了 36 億新台幣，反映了 5 納米和 3 納米的開發活動增加以及為 5 納米坡道做準備的開業費用。

Operating margin increased by 2.4 percentage points sequentially to 39.2%.

營業利潤率環比增長 2.4 個百分點至 39.2%。

Overall, our fourth quarter EPS reached TWD 4.47 and ROE was 28.9%.

總體而言，我們第四季度每股收益達到 4.47 新台幣，ROE 為 28.9%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

7-nanometer process technology continue to ramp strongly and accounted for 35% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter.

7 納米工藝技術繼續強勁增長，在第四季度佔晶圓收入的 35%。

10-nanometer was 1% and 16-nanometer was 20%.

10 納米為 1%，16 納米為 20%。

Advanced technologies, defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 56% of wafer revenue, up from 51% in the third quarter.

定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 56%，高於第三季度的 51%。

On a full year basis, 7-nanometer contribution increased from 9% in 2018 to 27% of wafer revenue in 2019.

在全年基礎上，7 納米的貢獻從 2018 年的 9% 增加到 2019 年的 27%。

10-nanometer was 3% and 16-nanometer was 20%.

10 納米為 3%，16 納米為 20%。

Advanced technologies accounted for 50% of total wafer revenue, up from 41% in 2018.

先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 50%，高於 2018 年的 41%。

Now let's take a look at revenue contribution by platform.

現在讓我們來看看平台的收入貢獻。

Our fourth quarter revenue growth was driven mainly by smartphone and HPC.

我們第四季度的收入增長主要由智能手機和 HPC 推動。

Smartphone increased 16% quarter-over-quarter to account for 53% of our fourth quarter revenue.

智能手機環比增長 16%，占我們第四季度收入的 53%。

HPC increased 6% to account for 29%.

HPC 增長 6%，佔 29%。

IoT decreased 4% to account for 8%.

物聯網下降 4%，佔 8%。

Automotive remained flat and accounted 4%.

汽車行業持平，佔比 4%。

On a full year basis, smartphone and IoT led the growth with 12% and 33%, respectively, while HPC, automotive and DCE decreased 8%, 7% and 8%, respectively.

全年來看，智能手機和物聯網分別以 12% 和 33% 的增幅領跑，而高性能計算、汽車和 DCE 分別下降 8%、7% 和 8%。

If we exclude cryptocurrency from both years, HPC would have grown mid-single-digit in 2019.

如果我們從這兩年中排除加密貨幣，HPC 將在 2019 年增長中個位數。

Overall, smartphone accounted for 49% of our 2019 revenue; HPC, 30%; and IoT, 8%.

總體而言，智能手機占我們 2019 年收入的 49%；高性能計算，30%；和物聯網，8%。

Moving onto the balance sheet.

轉移到資產負債表上。

We ended fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 583 billion, flat versus the prior quarter.

我們在第四季度末的現金和有價證券為 5830 億新台幣，與上一季度持平。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 96 billion as we increased TWD 33 billion in short-term borrowings mainly for hedging purpose, TWD 51 billion in payables to suppliers and TWD 13 billion in dividends payable.

在負債方面，流動負債增加了960億新台幣，因為我們增加了330億新台幣的短期借款，主要用於對沖目的，510億新台幣的應付供應商款項和130億新台幣的應付股息。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained at 41 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數維持在 41 天。

Days of inventory decreased 10 days to 55 days due to higher wafer shipments during the quarter.

由於本季度晶圓出貨量增加，庫存天數減少了 10 天至 55 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD 203 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 170 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 52 billion for first quarter '19 cash dividend.

在第四季度，我們從運營中產生了約 2030 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出中花費了 1700 億新台幣，並為 19 年第一季度的現金股息分配了 520 億新台幣。

We also increased 33 -- TWD 36 billion in short-term loans for hedging purpose.

我們還增加了 33 - 360 億新台幣的短期貸款用於對沖目的。

Overall, our cash balance slightly increased TWD 3 billion to TWD 455 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額在本季度末略微增加了 30 億新台幣至 4550 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our fourth quarter capital expenditures reached USD 5.6 billion and totaled USD 14.9 billion for the full year.

以美元計算，我們第四季度的資本支出達到 56 億美元，全年總計 149 億美元。

Now let's take a look at the recap of our performance in 2019.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們在 2019 年的表現。

2019 was a challenging year for the global semiconductor industry given rising macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain inventory correction, to name a few.

鑑於宏觀經濟不確定性上升和供應鏈庫存調整等因素，2019 年對全球半導體行業來說是充滿挑戰的一年。

However, we are able to grow our revenue by 1.3% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms and 3.7% in NT dollar terms.

但是，我們能夠以美元計算的收入同比增長 1.3%，以新台幣計算的收入同比增長 3.7%。

Gross margin decreased 2.3 percentage points to 46% primarily because of lower capacity utilization in the first half of the year.

毛利率下降 2.3 個百分點至 46%，主要是由於上半年產能利用率下降。

Operating margin decreased 2.4 percentage points to 34.8%.

營業利潤率下降 2.4 個百分點至 34.8%。

Overall, full year EPS slightly declined 1.7% to TWD 13.32.

整體而言，全年每股收益微跌 1.7% 至新台幣 13.32 元。

On cash flow, we spent TWD 460 billion in Capex, while we generated TWD 615 billion in operating cash flow and TWD 155 billion in free cash flow.

在現金流方面，我們在資本支出上花費了 4600 億新台幣，而我們產生了 6150 億新台幣的運營現金流和 1550 億新台幣的自由現金流。

We also paid TWD 259 billion in cash dividends, an increase of 25% from the previous year.

我們還支付了 2590 億新台幣的現金股息，比上年增長了 25%。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to first quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向第一季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between USD 10.2 billion and USD 10.3 billion, which represents a 1.4% sequential decrease at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第一季度收入將在 102 億美元至 103 億美元之間，中點環比下降 1.4%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.9, gross margin is expected to be between 48.5% and 50.5%, operating margin between 37.5% and 39.5%.

基於1美元兌29.9新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在48.5%至50.5%之間，營業利潤率在37.5%至39.5%之間。

Now I will look -- I would like to make one more comment on tax rate.

現在我來看一下——我想對稅率再做一點評論。

In the past, we needed to accrue tax on undistributed earnings, which triggered a much higher tax rate in the second quarter.

過去，我們需要對未分配收益進行應計稅，這在第二季度引發了更高的稅率。

Now due to the tax regulation changes, we can offset the tax with our capital investments and no longer need to incur the tax expense on undistributed earnings.

現在由於稅收法規的變化，我們可以用我們的資本投資來抵消稅收，並且不再需要對未分配的收益產生稅收費用。

Meanwhile, we are still subjected to the alternative minimum tax.

同時，我們仍需繳納替代性最低稅。

As a result, we will still have a full year tax rate approximately 12%, and this will be equally applied to all 4 quarters of the year.

因此，我們的全年稅率仍將保持在 12% 左右，這將同樣適用於全年的所有 4 個季度。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Let me follow by making a few comments about near-term demand in the inventory and 2020 capital budget.

接下來讓我對庫存和 2020 年資本預算的近期需求發表一些評論。

We concluded our fourth quarter with revenue of TWD 317.2 billion or USD 10.4 billion, slightly above our guidance, mainly due to better demand from smartphone-related applications than our forecast 3 months ago.

我們第四季度的收入為 3172 億新台幣或 104 億美元，略高於我們的預期，主要是由於智能手機相關應用的需求好於我們 3 個月前的預測。

Concluding 2019, the semiconductor industry excluding memory declined 3%, while foundry was flat.

總結 2019 年，不包括內存的半導體行業下降了 3%，而代工則持平。

TSMC's revenue grew 1.3% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms, outpacing both the semiconductor ex memory and foundry industry growth.

台積電以美元計算的收入同比增長 1.3%，超過了半導體前存儲器和代工行業的增長。

On the inventory front, our fabless customers' overall inventory continue to be digested throughout the fourth quarter.

在庫存方面，我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存在整個第四季度繼續被消化。

We now expect it to reduce to the seasonal level exiting 2019, setting up a healthier inventory base entering 2020.

我們現在預計它將減少到 2019 年之後的季節性水平，從而在 2020 年建立更健康的庫存基礎。

Moving into first quarter 2020, despite mobile product seasonality, our business is expected to be better than the seasonality in recent years, supported by continued ramp of 5G smartphones.

進入 2020 年第一季度，儘管移動產品存在季節性，但在 5G 智能手機持續增長的支持下，我們的業務預計將好於近年來的季節性。

Now I will talk about our capital budget in 2019 and 2020.

現在我將談談我們在 2019 年和 2020 年的資本預算。

We expect the ramp of 5G-related and HPC applications to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

我們預計 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的增長將在未來幾年推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

In order to meet this increased demand and support of customers' capacity needs, we raised our 2019 CapEx guidance by $4 billion to $14 billion to $15 billion, and we ended up spending $14.9 billion.

為了滿足不斷增長的需求和對客戶容量需求的支持，我們將 2019 年的資本支出指引提高了 40 億美元至 140 億美元至 150 億美元，最終支出為 149 億美元。

Our 2020 capital budget is expected to be between $15 billion and $16 billion.

我們 2020 年的資本預算預計在 150 億美元至 160 億美元之間。

Out of the $15 billion to $16 billion CapEx for 2020, about 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies including 3, 5 and 7-nanometers, about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask-making and about 10% for specialty technologies.

在 2020 年 150 億至 160 億美元的資本支出中，約 80% 的資本預算將用於包括 3、5 和 7 納米在內的先進工藝技術，約 10% 將用於先進封裝和掩模製造，約10% 用於專業技術。

With this level of capital spending in 2020, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

鑑於 2020 年的資本支出水平，我們重申台積電將繼續致力於每年和每季度的可持續現金股息。

Now let me turn the microphone to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風轉到 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Let me start with our 2020 full year outlook.

讓我從我們的 2020 年全年展望開始。

For the full year of 2020, we forecast the overall semiconductor market growth excluding memory to be 8%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 17%.

對於 2020 年全年，我們預測不包括內存的整體半導體市場增長率為 8%，而代工行業的增長率預計為 17% 左右。

For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth by several percentage points in U.S. dollar term.

對於台積電，我們有信心以美元計算可以超過代工收入增長幾個百分點。

Our 2020 business will be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, where we see strong interests from all 4 growth platform, which are mobile, HPC, IoT and automotive.

我們 2020 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 7 納米和 5 納米技術的強勁需求的支持，我們看到所有 4 個增長平台（移動、HPC、物聯網和汽車）的強烈興趣。

Now let me talk about 5G and HPC as the major long-term growth driver for TSMC.

現在讓我談談 5G 和 HPC 作為台積電的主要長期增長動力。

We continue to see stronger deployment of 5G networks and smartphones in several major markets around the world.

我們繼續看到 5G 網絡和智能手機在全球幾個主要市場的部署更加強勁。

We reiterate mid-teens penetration rate for 5G smartphones of the total smartphone market in 2020.

我們重申 2020 年 5G 智能手機在整個智能手機市場中的青少年滲透率。

We also forecast a faster penetration of 5G smartphone as compared to 4G over the next several years while silicon content of 5G smartphone will be substantially higher than that of a 4G smartphone.

我們還預測，與 4G 相比，5G 智能手機在未來幾年的滲透率將更快，而 5G 智能手機的矽含量將大大高於 4G 智能手機。

In addition, the significant performance, bandwidth and latency improvement of 5G network will drive AI application and unlock new usage cases such as real-time response and control across many different types of connected end devices.

此外，5G 網絡顯著的性能、帶寬和延遲改進將推動人工智能應用並解鎖新的用例，例如跨多種不同類型的連接終端設備的實時響應和控制。

We believe 5G is a multiyear megatrend that will a world where digital computation is increasingly ubiquitous, which will fuel the course of all 4 of our growth platform in the next several years.

我們相信 5G 是一個多年的大趨勢，它將是一個數字計算越來越普遍的世界，這將在未來幾年推動我們所有 4 個增長平台的進程。

With 5G driving exponential growth in the amount of big data being generated and continuous improvement in algorithms, a smarter and more intelligent world will require massive increase in computation power.

隨著 5G 推動大數據量的指數級增長和算法的不斷改進，一個更智能、更智能的世界將需要大量增加計算能力。

Thus, HPC become another major long-term growth driver for TSMC.

因此，HPC 成為台積電另一個主要的長期增長動力。

CPU, networking and AI accelerator will be the main growth area for our HPC platform.

CPU、網絡和人工智能加速器將是我們高性能計算平台的主要增長領域。

By working diligently to provide the foundry industry's most advanced technology and making it available to all the product innovators, TSMC can expand the pool of innovators who fuel the semiconductor industry growth.

通過努力提供代工行業最先進的技術並將其提供給所有產品創新者，台積電可以擴大推動半導體行業發展的創新者隊伍。

With the successful ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the upcoming ramp of N6, N5 and N3, we are able to widen our customer product portfolio and expand our addressable market.

隨著 N7、N7+ 的成功升級以及即將推出的 N6、N5 和 N3 的升級，我們能夠擴大我們的客戶產品組合併擴大我們的潛在市場。

We also see growth in networking, thanks to 5G infrastructure deployment over the next few years.

由於未來幾年 5G 基礎設施的部署，我們還看到了網絡的增長。

With 5G and HPC applications as a major growth driver, we now expect to grow at the high end of our long-term growth projection of 5% to 10% CAGR in U.S. dollar terms.

以 5G 和 HPC 應用為主要增長動力，我們現在預計將以美元計算的長期增長預測為 5% 至 10% 的複合年增長率的高端。

Now I'll talk about the ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the status of N6.

現在我將談談 N7、N7+ 和 N6 的狀態。

As N7 enters its third year of ramp, we continue to see very strong demand across a wide spectrum of products for mobile, HPC, IoT and automotive applications.

隨著 N7 進入第三個年頭，我們繼續看到移動、HPC、物聯網和汽車應用的各種產品的需求非常強勁。

Our N7+ is entering its second year of ramp.

我們的 N7+ 正在進入第二年。

N7+ is the industry's first high-volume production with EUV photolithography technology while paving the way for N6.

N7+ 是業界首款採用 EUV 光刻技術的大批量生產，同時為 N6 鋪平了道路。

Our N6 provides a clear migration path for next wave N7 products as its design rules are fully compatible with N7 while providing 15% to 20% higher density, which improve power consumption when compared to N7.

我們的 N6 為下一代 N7 產品提供了清晰的遷移路徑，因為它的設計規則與 N7 完全兼容，同時提供了 15% 到 20% 的更高密度，與 N7 相比，這降低了功耗。

N6 is on track for risk production in first quarter this year and volume production before the end of this year.

N6有望在今年一季度投產，年底前量產。

N6 will have 1 more EUV layer than N7+ and will further extend our N7 family well into the future.

N6 將比 N7+ 多 1 個 EUV 層，並將進一步將我們的 N7 系列擴展到未來。

We expect our 7-nanometer family to continue to grow in its third year and contribute more than 30% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

我們預計我們的 7 納米系列將在第三年繼續增長，並在 2020 年貢獻超過 30% 的晶圓收入。

Now allow me to talk about our N5 volume production.

現在請允許我談談我們的 N5 量產。

Our N5 technology is a full node stride from our N7, with 80% logic density gain and about a 20% speed gain compared with 7-nanometer.

我們的 N5 技術是 N7 的一個完整節點，與 7 納米相比，邏輯密度增益為 80%，速度增益約為 20%。

N5 will adopt EUV extensively and is well on track for volume production in first half this year and with good yield.

N5將廣泛採用EUV，今年上半年有望量產，良率良好。

We expect a very fast and smooth ramp of N5 in the second half of this year, driven by both mobile and HPC applications.

我們預計，在移動和 HPC 應用程序的推動下，今年下半年 N5 將實現非常快速和平穩的增長。

We expect 5-nanometer to contribute about 10% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

我們預計 5 納米將在 2020 年貢獻約 10% 的晶圓收入。

N5 will be the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA.

N5 將成為鑄造行業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的 PPA。

We will offer continuous enhancement to further improve the performance, power and density of our 5-nanometer technology solution into the future as well.

我們將提供持續改進，以進一步提高我們未來 5 納米技術解決方案的性能、功率和密度。

Thus, we are confident that 5-nanometer will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心 5 納米將成為台積電另一個大型且持久的節點。

Finally, I'll talk about our N3 status.

最後說說我們的N3狀態。

We are working with customers on N3's design, and the technology development progress is going well.

我們正在與客戶合作進行N3的設計，技術開發進展順利。

We have many technology options in development and we carefully evaluate all the different approaches.

我們有許多正在開發的技術選擇，我們會仔細評估所有不同的方法。

Our decision is based on technology, maturity, performance and cost.

我們的決定基於技術、成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 will offer another full node scaling benefit in terms of performance, power and density as compared with our N5 technology.

與我們的 N5 技術相比，我們的 N3 將在性能、功率和密度方面提供另一個全節點擴展優勢。

We expect our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced.

我們預計我們的 3 納米技術在推出時將成為 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的代工技術。

We will announce more details about our N3 technology at our TSMC North America Technology Symposium on April 29.

我們將在 4 月 29 日的台積電北美技術研討會上公佈有關 N3 技術的更多細節。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

So now let's begin the question-and-answer session.

那麼現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Our first question will come from the floor.

我們的第一個問題將來自地板。

Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

瑞士信貸，蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。

Yes.

是的。

I guess with the trade war eased a bit, there's still a couple of maybe political issues out there so I wanted to just start with that.

我想隨著貿易戰的緩和，可能還有一些政治問題，所以我想從這個開始。

The first one, if you could give some color on TSMC's U.S. content and just if -- maybe the calculation, there's talk about content threshold lowered to 10%, and if -- there's some talk that the equipment may be excluded from that calculation.

第一個，如果你能給台積電的美國內容一些顏色，只是如果——也許是計算，有人談論內容閾值降低到 10%，如果——有人說設備可能被排除在計算之外。

So if you could give a bit more color about that.

所以，如果你能給出更多的顏色。

And then second, with more of the geopolitical concerns about some of the military technology.

其次，對一些軍事技術有更多的地緣政治擔憂。

You've talked in the past about not needing toward having more scale with the fabs in Taiwan, but if any new considerations on the fab location.

您過去曾談到不需要擴大台灣晶圓廠的規模，但如果對晶圓廠位置有任何新的考慮。

Yes.

是的。

Happy New Year, everyone.

祝大家新年快樂。

On the possible further tightening up of export control from the U.S. government, I think this is -- they haven't really announced with the specifics about the rules.

關於美國政府可能進一步收緊出口管制，我認為這是——他們還沒有真正宣布有關規則的細節。

So everything I say here can only be a speculation.

所以我在這裡所說的一切只能是猜測。

So -- and particularly, I don't want to comment on particular customers.

所以——特別是，我不想評論特定的客戶。

But one thing for sure is our business profile is massive.

但可以肯定的是，我們的業務規模龐大。

We are everyone's foundry.

我們是每個人的鑄造廠。

And we will deal with each customer fairly and equally.

我們將公平、平等地對待每一位客戶。

Secondly is we have been and we will follow the law and regulation.

其次是我們已經並將遵守法律法規。

So upon the regulation being effective, we will carefully study and evaluate, product by product, our eligibility in the export.

因此，在法規生效後，我們將逐個產品仔細研究和評估我們的出口資格。

And we really have a very sophisticated export control system.

而且我們確實有一個非常複雜的出口控制系統。

As you might know, every product is calculated automatically.

您可能知道，每個產品都是自動計算的。

Every product is different in terms of their content.

每個產品的內容都不同。

So it's really difficult to describe to you generally what is the content percentage is.

因此，通常很難向您描述內容百分比是多少。

But I can just tell you that whatever you read on the newspaper is not true, okay?

但我只能告訴你，你在報紙上看到的不是真的，好嗎？

So we are prepared to deal with this new export control regulation.

因此，我們準備應對這項新的出口管制規定。

Yes.

是的。

And thanks for clarifying especially that it's not a node by node, which some of the press was speculating.

感謝您特別澄清它不是一個節點一個節點，一些媒體正在猜測。

The second question, I just wanted to ask on the higher Capex, where it came in at the high end of guidance and a higher range of CapEx for 2020.

第二個問題，我只是想問一下更高的資本支出，它在指導的高端和 2020 年更高的資本支出範圍內出現。

If you could talk maybe the areas where the incremental increase both just from an investment, where that new spend is coming, and maybe what changed on the demand side versus a few months ago to lift the budget.

如果您可以談論增量增長的領域，包括投資，新支出的來源，以及與幾個月前相比，需求方面發生了哪些變化以提高預算。

And then the second part, because of this higher base, how you're looking at kind of the base over the, say, the following year because now we have a 2-year higher elevated spend, if, say, some moderation from there.

然後是第二部分，由於基數較高，您如何看待第二年的基數，因為現在我們的支出增加了兩年，如果從那裡開始有所緩和.

Yes, we did increase substantial amount on the Capex.

是的，我們確實增加了大量資本支出。

Let me give you some color why we did it that, okay?

讓我給你一些顏色，為什麼我們這樣做，好嗎？

We expect -- actually, we expect the mobile phone and HPC, these 2 segments, probably grow above 20% this year; and with another 2 segments, 2 platforms, automotive and IoT, probably in mid-teens.

我們預計——實際上，我們預計手機和 HPC 這兩個細分市場今年可能增長 20% 以上；還有另外 2 個細分市場，2 個平台，汽車和物聯網，可能在 10 歲左右。

So put all together, we had to increase the capacity.

所以總而言之，我們必須增加容量。

We work with the customer to fulfill their demand and so that's a result of why we increase our capacity.

我們與客戶合作以滿足他們的需求，這就是我們提高產能的原因。

Now your question about our growth?

現在您對我們的成長有疑問嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The second question was where the spend sits, like 5, 7 versus backend, so where the additional increase...

第二個問題是支出在哪裡，比如 5、7 與後端，那麼額外的增加在哪裡......

Okay.

好的。

A little bit around 7 that we announced in the last year, and then most of them used in 5 and then prepared for 3. And 10% in the back end, 80% in the leading-edge technology, like the 7, 5, 3 altogether.

我們去年宣布的 7 左右，然後大部分用在 5 中，然後為 3 做準備。還有 10% 在後端，80% 在前沿技術，比如 7、5、一共3個。

Okay.

好的。

And then the 2 -- maybe the follow-up I had was just the moderation of CapEx for -- if you expect that to maybe moderate from the very high level next year.

然後 2 - 也許我的後續行動只是資本支出的適度 - 如果你預計明年可能會從非常高的水平緩和。

In the backend, 10% would be $1.5 billion for CapEx.

在後端，10% 的資本支出為 15 億美元。

But I'm curious, maybe between backend and mask, if really over a $1 billion backend CapEx.

但我很好奇，也許在後端和掩碼之間，如果後端資本支出真的超過 10 億美元。

You're right, I mean, the back end including the mask.

你是對的，我的意思是，後端包括面具。

Okay.

好的。

But I guess out of that, do you think the backend CapEx is over $1 billion investment on that side?

但我猜想，你認為後端資本支出在這方面的投資超過 10 億美元嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then if -- could you talk about the moderation for...

然後，如果——你能談談...的節制嗎？

I think, Randy, the last part of your question is talking about our CapEx this year and last year is at a higher level.

我想，蘭迪，你問題的最後一部分是關於我們今年和去年的資本支出。

Looking out the next several years, where do we think the CapEx will be.

展望未來幾年，我們認為資本支出會在哪裡。

That would depend on the growth, right?

這取決於增長，對吧？

Yes.

是的。

If we enjoyed a good growth in these 2 years, I think, and if it's a success introduction of our N3, I mean, the CapEx probably will not drop.

我認為，如果我們在這兩年中實現了良好的增長，並且如果我們的 N3 成功推出，我的意思是，資本支出可能不會下降。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's go on to the next question.

讓我們繼續下一個問題。

We'll take it from the floor.

我們會從地板上拿走它。

Citigroup's Roland Shu, over here.

花旗集團的羅蘭舒，這邊。

First question, I'll just follow up on the Capex.

第一個問題，我將跟進資本支出。

For -- with this $15 billion to $16 billion CapEx spending, so what -- how many of the total capacity increase is going to be this year?

因為——在這 150 億到 160 億美元的資本支出中，今年的總產能增加了多少？

And how about last year?

而去年呢？

With this almost $15 billion CapEx spending, how many percent of the CapEx increased last year?

有了這近 150 億美元的資本支出，去年資本支出增加了多少？

Wendell will discuss this question.

溫德爾將討論這個問題。

You're asking about the capacity increase?

你問的是產能提升？

Yes.

是的。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Of course, the increase mainly come from advanced technologies, right?

當然，增長主要來自於先進技術，對吧？

So for 2020, we're looking at mid-single-digit capacity increase.

因此，對於 2020 年，我們正在關注中個位數的產能增長。

Last year, a low single-digit number.

去年是個位數的低位。

Okay.

好的。

And then how about the total depreciation is going to be this year?

那麼今年的總折舊情況如何？

It will increase by high teens in 2020.

到 2020 年，它將增加十幾歲。

Okay.

好的。

And second question is for the gross margin.

第二個問題是毛利率。

For your first quarter revenue guidance, U.S. dollar just down slightly.

對於您的第一季度收入指導，美元略有下跌。

However, apparently in first quarter, we have fewer working days.

但是，顯然在第一季度，我們的工作日減少了。

So it means that your utilization in first quarter definitely is going to be much higher than 4Q.

所以這意味著你在第一季度的利用率肯定會比第四季度高得多。

And also for 7-nanometer, last quarter, we said that we -- gross margin has already reached corporate average.

同樣對於 7 納米，上個季度，我們說我們 - 毛利率已經達到公司平均水平。

And also, I believe, in first quarter, we probably won't have the inventory reevaluation.

而且，我相信，在第一季度，我們可能不會重新評估庫存。

So all on this, so is your gross margin guidance, 48.5% to 50.5%, a little bit conservative?

綜上所述，您的毛利率指導（48.5% 到 50.5%）是否有點保守？

The utilization, we expect it to increase a little bit.

利用率，我們預計它會增加一點。

And of all the factors that you just mentioned, there's also a potential factor, which is foreign exchange rate impact.

在你剛才提到的所有因素中，還有一個潛在因素，就是匯率影響。

There are 6 factors affecting our profitability: the development and ramp of our advanced technology, pricing, cost, utilization, technology mix and foreign exchange rate.

影響我們盈利能力的因素有 6 個：我們先進技術的發展和提升、定價、成本、利用率、技術組合和匯率。

So when you put all these together, that is how we came up with the guidance.

因此，當您將所有這些放在一起時，這就是我們提出指導的方式。

Thank you, Roland.

謝謝你，羅蘭。

All right.

好的。

Next question will come from Goldman Sachs, Bruce Lu.

下一個問題將來自高盛的布魯斯·盧。

I'll try to get more granularity, color for the 5G penetration rate.

我將嘗試為 5G 滲透率獲得更多的粒度和顏色。

Management just mentioned that it's about mid-teens in 2020.

管理層剛剛提到，2020 年大約是十幾歲。

Can we have more color in terms of that, whether it's sell-in or sell-through or what kind of geography distribution, what kind of distribution between high-end and low-end for the 5G?

我們能否在這方面有更多的色彩，無論是推銷還是直銷，還是5G的地理分佈，高端和低端之間的分佈是什麼？

Well, I can only say that 5G's penetration is higher than 4G.

嗯，我只能說5G的滲透率比4G高。

And you know a few countries, that they are moving faster than the other area, right?

你知道一些國家，他們的發展速度比其他地區快，對吧？

And that's all we know.

這就是我們所知道的。

But we are making the judgment, look at the installation of 5G infrastructure, and we look at each country's adoption and we do our own estimate.

但我們正在做出判斷，看看 5G 基礎設施的安裝情況，看看每個國家的採用情況，然後做自己的估計。

That's why we come out with mid-teens penetration.

這就是為什麼我們推出了青少年滲透率。

So it's more from the top-down perspective instead of like bottom-up from like each product line.

因此，更多的是從自上而下的角度來看，而不是像每個產品線那樣自下而上。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

We do both and make a judgment.

我們兩者都做並做出判斷。

So in either both, can you give us some color about why distribution, putting high-end and mid-end...

所以在這兩者中，你能給我們一些關於為什麼分銷的顏色，把高端和中端…

That's company confidential.

那是公司機密。

Bruce, do you have a follow-up?

布魯斯，你有後續嗎？

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

Can I double-check that the assumption of mid-teens penetration is based on like there's no change in terms of de minimis rule?

我是否可以再次檢查青少年滲透率的假設是否基於最低限度規則沒有變化？

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

Now the change of de minimis rule is still speculative.

現在，最低限度規則的變化仍然是投機性的。

So our forecast, we assume the business as usual.

所以我們的預測，我們假設一切照舊。

I understand it.

我明白。

I think the -- yes, the number we currently forecast does not include de minimis rule tightened and change.

我認為——是的，我們目前預測的數字不包括收緊和改變的最低限度規則。

But for the -- whatever the export control is coming up, we think that 5G's momentum will continue.

但對於 - 無論出口管制即將出台，我們認為 5G 的勢頭將繼續。

If any interruption, it will be very short term.

如果有任何中斷，那將是非常短暫的。

After going through the supply chain changes and share exchanges, I think the momentum will -- were just as strong, yes.

在經歷了供應鏈變化和股票交易之後，我認為這種勢頭會——同樣強勁，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Your second question?

你的第二個問題？

The second question is regarding to the management.

第二個問題是關於管理的。

You used to mention that the TSMC becomes more important in terms of geopolitics situations.

您曾經提到台積電在地緣政治形勢下變得更加重要。

So does that change your -- cost of your -- does that change your equation in terms of building out the fab, the cost structures?

那麼，這是否會改變你的——你的成本——是否會改變你在建造晶圓廠、成本結構方面的方程式？

So in the past, we only care about the manufacturing cost as a main cost factor.

所以在過去，我們只關心製造成本作為主要成本因素。

But given the current situation, do you think that you have to put that into your consideration as well, i.e.

但是鑑於目前的情況，您是否認為您也必須考慮到這一點，即

you've built -- you know about the saying that building a factory outside of Taiwan is a lot more expensive than doing that in Taiwan.

你已經建造了——你知道在台灣以外建造工廠比在台灣建造工廠要貴得多的說法。

But with all the geographical risk, that building a factory outside of Taiwan becomes right.

但考慮到所有地理風險，在台灣以外建立工廠是正確的。

Do you see the increasing pressure on that?

你看到這方面的壓力越來越大了嗎？

Do you want to -- do we expect any changes on that?

你想 - 我們期望對此有任何改變嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The cost in Taiwan is lowest among all regions across the world.

台灣的成本是全球所有地區中最低的。

We have been studying it continuously.

我們一直在不斷地研究它。

And that decision is made to the best interests of our customers.

這個決定是為了我們客戶的最大利益。

Yes, the geopolitical is evolving, but we still listen to our customers as the priority.

是的，地緣政治正在演變，但我們仍將傾聽客戶的意見作為首要任務。

And at this point, our customer, when asked to be manufacturing in a higher-cost region, their answer is, "We cannot be competitive this way." So to increase the -- to maintain the competitiveness of our customer, currently, this is fab layout we're having.

在這一點上，當我們的客戶被要求在成本較高的地區進行製造時，他們的回答是，“我們無法以這種方式具有競爭力。”因此，為了增加 - 以保持我們客戶的競爭力，目前，這是我們正在擁有的晶圓廠佈局。

In the future, right now it's too early to say.

未來，現在說還為時過早。

And still our customer prefer we have the lowest cost production sites and doing business with us.

我們的客戶仍然更喜歡我們擁有成本最低的生產基地並與我們開展業務。

So what if they are willing to pay for a higher price?

那麼，如果他們願意支付更高的價格呢？

They may be special products, but by and large, it's unlikely.

它們可能是特殊產品，但總的來說，不太可能。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

We have -- let's move to the line.

我們有 - 讓我們繼續前進。

We have quite a few callers on the line.

我們有很多來電者在線。

So operator, can we take the next call from the line, please?

接線員，我們可以接下一個電話嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Your next question comes from the line of Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first question is on margins.

我的第一個問題是關於利潤的。

Given that we are looking at very strong demand pickup, could we talk a little bit about any change in the view on longer-term gross margins?

鑑於我們正在看到非常強勁的需求回升，我們能否談談對長期毛利率的看法的任何變化？

We see meaningful improvement in gross margins beyond the 50% range that we have been in the last 4 to 5 years.

我們看到毛利率顯著提高，超過了過去 4 到 5 年的 50% 範圍。

And also, could you just talk a little bit about the margin dilution impact in second half of 2020 from 5-nanometer?

另外，您能否談談 2020 年下半年 5 納米對利潤稀釋的影響？

Is it likely to be more modest given there is a very strong 7-nanometer demand also through the course of this year?

考慮到今年對 7 納米的需求也非常強勁，它是否可能會更加溫和？

And I have a follow-up question.

我有一個後續問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Let me just repeat your question to make sure we got it right.

讓我重複你的問題，以確保我們做對了。

So your first question is asking about sort of with -- given the strong demand pickup, is there any change to TSMC's long-term gross margin target?

所以你的第一個問題是關於——鑑於強勁的需求回升，台積電的長期毛利率目標有什麼變化嗎？

Why could it not be beyond or above 50%?

為什麼不能超過或超過 50%？

And then your follow-up or addition to that is looking at this year, could the margin dilution from our 5-nanometer ramp in the second half be more modest given the continued strong demand over 7-nanometer?

然後你的後續行動或補充是在今年看，鑑於對 7 納米的持續強勁需求，下半年我們 5 納米斜坡的利潤率稀釋是否會更加溫和？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Right.

正確的。

We continue to use 50% gross margin.

我們繼續使用 50% 的毛利率。

We think it's still a very good target.

我們認為它仍然是一個非常好的目標。

Of all the 6 -- I just mentioned the 6 factors that will affect our profitability.

在所有 6 個因素中——我剛剛提到了 6 個會影響我們盈利能力的因素。

One of them actually relates to the ramp of new nodes.

其中之一實際上與新節點的增加有關。

So the ramp of every new node, we will see margin dilutions.

因此，每個新節點的斜坡，我們都會看到保證金稀釋。

This relates to your second question.

這與你的第二個問題有關。

And indeed, we are seeing a margin dilution in the second half of this year from the N5 ramp.

事實上，我們看到今年下半年 N5 斜坡的利潤稀釋。

Is it going to be better than before?

它會比以前更好嗎？

Yes, but only slightly, okay?

是的，但只是輕微的，好嗎？

And the other factors that I just mentioned include the foreign exchange rate, which is really uncertain for anybody to guess.

而我剛才提到的其他因素包括外匯匯率，這真的是任何人都無法猜測的。

So at this moment, we believe the 50% gross margin is still a good target for us.

所以目前，我們認為 50% 的毛利率對我們來說仍然是一個不錯的目標。

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, do you have a second question?

Gokul，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Could you talk a little bit about what we are seeing in the N-2, N-3 nodes?

您能談談我們在 N-2、N-3 個節點中看到的情況嗎？

Should we anticipate any recovery in the situation in 28-nanometer given overall foundry growth seems to be rebounding?

鑑於整體代工增長似乎正在反彈，我們是否應該預期 28 納米的情況會出現任何復蘇？

And second part is on 12- and 16-nanometer.

第二部分是關於 12 和 16 納米的。

Given a lot of the smartphone customers seem to be migrating to 7-nanometer and even 5-nanometer because of the adoption of 5G, will there be any challenge to backfill 12- and 16-nanometer as these customers migrate to more advanced process nodes?

鑑於由於 5G 的採用，許多智能手機客戶似乎正在遷移到 7 納米甚至 5 納米，隨著這些客戶遷移到更先進的工藝節點，回填 12 和 16 納米是否會有任何挑戰？

Okay.

好的。

So let me just repeat to make sure we understand again.

所以讓我重複一遍以確保我們再次理解。

You're asking about our N-2 and N-3.

你問的是我們的 N-2 和 N-3。

So first part of your question is, do we see any recovery in the demand for 28-nanometer given the overall strong demand that we see this year?

所以你的問題的第一部分是，鑑於我們今年看到的整體強勁需求，我們是否看到對 28 納米的需求有任何復蘇？

And then the second part of your question is that with a lot of products going from 12- and 16-nanometer very quickly to using our 7 and our 5, will we have challenges or difficulty to backfill 12, 16?

然後你問題的第二部分是，隨著很多產品從 12 納米和 16 納米快速發展到使用我們的 7 和 5，我們是否會遇到挑戰或困難來回填 12、16？

All right.

好的。

Let me answer 28-nanometer first.

讓我先回答28納米。

With a strong market growth, 28-nanometer, we did see a little bit better than we expected.

憑藉強勁的 28 納米市場增長，我們確實看到比我們預期的要好一些。

However, we have reiterated saying that 28-nanometer's capacity has been overbuilt in this industry.

然而，我們重申，28納米的產能在這個行業已經過度建設。

So the utilization is still below our average in 28-nanometer.

所以利用率仍然低於我們 28 納米的平均水平。

We expect it will be improved in next 1 to 2 years when we develop a new specialty technology for all our customers to utilize.

我們預計在未來 1 到 2 年內，當我們開發一種新的專業技術供所有客戶使用時，它會得到改進。

And we start to see the sign because from the new tape-outs, we can be sure that 1 to 2 years later, that the utilization rate will go back to company's average.

我們開始看到這個跡象，因為從新的流片開始，我們可以確定 1 到 2 年後，利用率將回到公司的平均水平。

And also 12 and 16.

還有12和16。

12 and 16, we did not see that.

12和16，我們沒有看到。

Today, it's still very strong demand.

今天，它的需求仍然非常強勁。

And there continue to be a very high utilization rate.

並且繼續保持非常高的利用率。

It is all because of we developed it.

這都是因為我們開發了它。

We continue to improve the technology.

我們不斷改進技術。

And so it's being utilized.

所以它被利用了。

The first wave of smartphone, HPC and now it's IoT, automotive.

第一波智能手機，HPC，現在是物聯網，汽車。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your questions, Gokul?

這能回答你的問題嗎，Gokul？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from the line of Bill Lu from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Bill Lu。

A question on 5 nanometers.

關於 5 納米的問題。

I remember when 7 was ramping, you gave us numbers on the number of tape-outs.

我記得當 7 增加時，你給了我們關於流片數量的數字。

I'm wondering if you can help us with 5-nanometer, either also by giving us number of tape-outs.

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們處理 5 納米，或者給我們一些流片。

So maybe just comparing it to 7 and whether it's higher or lower.

所以也許只是將它與 7 進行比較，以及它是更高還是更低。

Okay.

好的。

Bill, sorry, you broke up a bit at the end.

比爾，對不起，你最後分手了。

But I think I understood your question.

但我想我理解你的問題。

You want to ask us if we can give you some comparison of the number of tape-outs at 5-nanometer versus our 7-nanometer at a similar stage.

您想問我們是否可以對 5 納米與我們的 7 納米在類似階段的流片數量進行比較。

Well, the 5-nanometer tape-out is little bit less than 7-nanometer compared at the same stage of the time.

嗯，5納米的流片比同期的7納米要少一點。

However, the most important thing is that the high-volume tape-out is almost equal.

然而，最重要的是，大批量流片幾乎相等。

And so we expect that our 5-nanometer ramp is a very fast and smooth.

因此，我們希望我們的 5 納米斜坡非常快速和平穩。

And it will contribute about 10% to this year's revenue.

它將為今年的收入貢獻10%左右。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have...

你有沒有...

So what's the expectations then?

那麼有什麼期待呢？

And sorry, just to finish up my first question, so if that's the expectation, then that 5-nanometer will be in terms of wafer capacity as big as 7?

抱歉，我的第一個問題剛剛結束，如果這是預期，那麼 5 納米的晶圓容量會達到 7 嗎？

So we are building the capacity right now and to meet the customers' demand, very high demand.

所以我們現在正在建設產能，以滿足客戶的需求，非常高的需求。

So that's all I can say.

所以這就是我能說的。

Great.

偉大的。

Second question is a follow-up on Gokul's question on 28 nanometers.

第二個問題是 Gokul 關於 28 納米問題的後續問題。

As you develop these specialty technologies, can you talk about what kind of applications are expected to use these new specialty technologies?

當您開發這些專業技術時，您能否談談預計哪些應用程序會使用這些新的專業技術？

Do you want to repeat or...

你想重複還是...

Yes, sorry.

是的，對不起。

Okay.

好的。

Because you're breaking up a little bit, you were asking, Bill, on 28-nanometer, we talk about developing specialty technologies for 28-nanometer.

因為你有點分裂，所以你問，比爾，關於 28 納米，我們談論開發 28 納米的專業技術。

Your question is what type of applications will be used or these specialty technology is targeting?

您的問題是將使用哪種類型的應用程序或這些專業技術的目標是什麼？

Well, let me be a bit specific.

好吧，讓我說得具體一點。

We are developing the 28-nanometer into 22-nanometer geometry.

我們正在將 28 納米發展成 22 納米幾何結構。

And ultra-low power is one of the directions we are working on, which can be applied to a lot of IoT devices and also applies to some specialties, such as CMOS image sensor and all others, okay?

而超低功耗是我們正在努力的方向之一，它可以應用到很多物聯網設備上，也可以應用到一些專業，比如CMOS圖像傳感器等等，好嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a question on China.

我剛剛有一個關於中國的問題。

China was more than 100% of your Q4 sales growth on a year-on-year basis and sales more than doubled in 2019 from China despite the headwinds from crypto.

儘管受到加密貨幣的不利影響，中國的銷售額同比增長超過 100%，並且 2019 年中國的銷售額增長了一倍以上。

Can you maybe talk a bit more about the region, what's driving so much growth?

您能否多談談該地區，是什麼推動瞭如此多的增長？

And how should we think about China growth specifically in 2020?

我們應該如何看待 2020 年的中國經濟增長？

Okay, Brett.

好的，布雷特。

Please allow me to repeat your question.

請允許我重複你的問題。

Your question is about our China business.

您的問題是關於我們的中國業務。

You point out that it was 100% of our fourth quarter growth and grew quite strong in 2019 despite the drop-off in cryptocurrency.

你指出這是我們第四季度增長的 100%，並且在 2019 年增長相當強勁，儘管加密貨幣有所下降。

So you want us to comment on how we should think about China as a percentage of sales and future growth drivers going forward.

所以你想讓我們評論一下我們應該如何看待中國占銷售額和未來增長動力的百分比。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well, China is about 20% of our business and has been stable around that number last year this year.

嗯，中國占我們業務的 20% 左右，並且今年一直穩定在這個數字附近。

So what's changed is I think that last year, we see the China growth particularly strong.

所以改變的是我認為去年，我們看到中國的增長特別強勁。

And other regions, such as U.S., probably growth is less.

而其他地區，如美國，可能增長較少。

So that is a disjunction for this way.

所以這是這種方式的一種分離。

But to continue going on, I think the -- we expect to maintain this level.

但要繼續下去，我認為 - 我們希望保持這個水平。

Well, let me add some color to it.

好吧，讓我給它加點顏色。

The same thing, the China major business with TSMC is also still 5G and the AI, the same thing.

同樣的事情，台積電在中國的主要業務也還是5G和AI，同樣的事情。

2 years ago, probably we have some kind of big increase in the cryptocurrency, but right now it's become normal situation.

2 年前，我們的加密貨幣可能會出現某種程度的大幅增長，但現在這已成為正常情況。

Okay.

好的。

Brett, do you have a second question?

布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Just to follow up on my question.

只是為了跟進我的問題。

Looking at 2020, can you maybe just sort of help us with the drivers for growth from China?

展望 2020 年，您能否幫助我們了解來自中國的增長動力？

Do you think it will be mainly 5G smartphone-related?

你認為這將主要與 5G 智能手機相關嗎？

Is there going to be quite a meaningful contribution from other markets like HPC?

HPC 等其他市場是否會做出相當有意義的貢獻？

Any more color would be very helpful.

任何更多的顏色都會非常有幫助。

All right.

好的。

I will be 5G-related, both smartphone that will be increased and also the networking that's in the HPC area.

我將與 5G 相關，包括將增加的智能手機以及 HPC 領域的網絡。

That's 2 major area that China's business that will be increasing in 2020.

這是 2020 年中國業務將增長的兩個主要領域。

Okay.

好的。

Brett, do you have a second question?

布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

And just the -- second question is really targeted at HPC.

而第二個問題真正針對的是 HPC。

Can you maybe talk about how much your 7-nanometer capacity is running HPC at present?

您能否談談目前您的 7 納米容量運行 HPC 的程度？

I think you were planning to ramp that in the second half of '19.

我認為您計劃在 19 年下半年增加這一點。

But any more color on the portion of 7-nanometer running HPC would be helpful.

但是，運行 7 納米的 HPC 部分的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

And how does this scale as we look at 2020, the use of 7-nanometer for HPC?

當我們展望 2020 年，將 7 納米用於 HPC 時，這將如何擴展？

And I think you mentioned 5-nanometer HPC chips would actually ship in 2020.

而且我認為您提到 5 納米 HPC 芯片實際上會在 2020 年發貨。

What would it be used for?

它會用來做什麼？

Any more help, that would be great.

有更多的幫助，那就太好了。

Okay.

好的。

Brett, let me just repeat your question.

布雷特，讓我重複你的問題。

The first part is how much of our 7-nanometer capacity is for HPC products, how much was this last year, how do we expect this capacity for HPC to scale in 2020 for 7-nanometer.

第一部分是我們的 7 納米產能中有多少是用於 HPC 產品的，去年是多少，我們預計 HPC 的這種產能將如何在 2020 年擴展到 7 納米。

And then the second part is for 5-nanometer, what types of HPC products or applications are being used on 5-nanometer.

然後第二部分是針對 5 納米，在 5 納米上使用了哪些類型的 HPC 產品或應用。

Well, we do not disclose the capacity breakdown for a specific node.

好吧，我們沒有透露特定節點的容量細分。

In terms of revenue on the HPC in N7, actually all I want to say is it continues to grow, to increase, and we expect that this momentum will continue in the next few years.

就 N7 中 HPC 的收入而言，實際上我想說的是它會繼續增長、增加，我們預計這種勢頭將在未來幾年繼續保持下去。

For the N5, as we said, it's driven by mobile phone and HPC.

對於N5，正如我們所說，它是由手機和HPC驅動的。

Still, the 2 big increases this year.

儘管如此，今年還是有兩次大的增長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's come back to the floor for -- open the floor for questions.

讓我們回到地板上——請大家提問。

Next question will come from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

So my first question is about your future technology developments, right?

所以我的第一個問題是關於你們未來的技術發展，對吧？

So next year, I'm not sure if you are going to introduce so-called 5-nanometer pro -- process.

所以明年，我不確定你是否會引入所謂的 5 納米專業工藝。

And can you comment on that a little bit?

你能評論一下嗎？

And if you let the extension of the current 5-nanometer, does that mean possibly to your gross margin improvement?

如果你讓當前的 5 納米擴展，這是否意味著你的毛利率可能會提高？

So that is the first question.

這是第一個問題。

We continue to improve the performance of each node.

我們不斷提高每個節點的性能。

So next year, you're talking about 5 pro?

所以明年，你說的是5 pro？

Yes, 5-nanometer pro or...

是的，5 納米專業版或...

Or whatever.

管他呢。

Okay.

好的。

It will be better than this year's at 5-nanometer, that's for sure, all right?

它會比今年的 5 納米更好，這是肯定的，好嗎？

And all the major customers will use it.

所有主要客戶都會使用它。

And so the gross margin improvement, that will be the same as the previous node.

所以毛利率的提高，這將與之前的節點相同。

It takes about 7 quarter to -- 6 to 8, okay, 6 to 8 quarter to reach the company's average.

大約需要 7 個季度到 - 6 到 8 個，好吧，6 到 8 個季度才能達到公司的平均水平。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

So I would assume that 5-nanometer gross margin will continue to improve into next year.

因此，我認為 5 納米的毛利率將繼續提高到明年。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

Okay.

好的。

And next is I'm really interested in your 3-nanometer, right?

接下來是我對你的 3 納米真的很感興趣，對吧？

So currently, what is [basically meaning] the cost per transistor.

所以目前，每個晶體管的成本[基本上意味著]是什麼。

Do you think you can really reduce the cost per transistor level at 3-nanometer?

您認為您真的可以降低 3 納米的每個晶體管級別的成本嗎？

And I'm also curious, given this assumption, do you think HPC or mobile will be a bigger user for your coming 3-nanometer, focusing both CPU or smartphone AP?

我也很好奇，考慮到這個假設，你認為 HPC 或移動設備會成為你即將到來的 3 納米的更大用戶，同時關注 CPU 或智能手機 AP？

Per transistor cost, I believe, will continue to reduce, okay?

我相信每個晶體管的成本會繼續降低，好嗎？

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

Now who is going to use it?

現在誰會使用它？

That's a major question.

這是一個重大問題。

Again, still high-end smartphone and HPC will be the users, all right?

同樣，高端智能手機和 HPC 仍將是用戶，好嗎？

I cannot be more specific to tell you whom, but that's it.

我不能更具體地告訴你是誰，但就是這樣。

Can I switch back to some near-term follow-up?

我可以切換回一些近期的後續行動嗎？

Let's stick with two questions first and then go back in the queue, we can come back.

讓我們先堅持兩個問題，然後回到隊列中，我們可以回來。

Sorry.

對不起。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question will come from CLSA, Sebastian Hou over here.

下一個問題將來自 CLSA，這裡的 Sebastian Hou。

So my first question is to follow up on Chairman's comments about that you see the 5G momentum will continue to be strong, even if there's a change on the U.S. exporting rule.

所以我的第一個問題是跟進主席關於您認為 5G 勢頭將繼續強勁的評論，即使美國出口規則發生變化。

Maybe just some near-term disruption because TSMC has evaluated the supply chain change.

也許只是一些近期的中斷，因為台積電已經評估了供應鏈的變化。

So can you elaborate more about what the supply chain change you have seen to make you such -- give you such confidence that there will be just a near-term disruption even if there is some change on the exporting rule?

那麼，您能否詳細說明您所看到的供應鏈變化是什麼讓您如此 - 讓您有信心即使出口規則發生一些變化，也只會在短期內出現中斷？

Well, this is a forward-looking analysis.

嗯，這是一個前瞻性的分析。

So I think that some of you also did analysis.

所以我認為你們中的一些人也做了分析。

Basically, the smartphone, you have to look at this smartphone demand per year.

基本上，智能手機，你每年都得看這個智能手機的需求量。

And the -- and then look at the 5G penetration per year, who will be the smartphone supplier - it can change, who will be their shares and where the 5G base station been produced, that will change.

然後 - 然後看看每年的 5G 普及率，誰將成為智能手機供應商 - 它可能會發生變化，誰將是他們的份額以及 5G 基站的生產地，這些都會發生變化。

So all these things really depends on the -- it boils down to really the forward-looking smartphone demand, would that be interrupted.

所以所有這些事情真的取決於 - 它歸結為真正具有前瞻性的智能手機需求，是否會被打斷。

That's the analysis.

這就是分析。

I think that if any disruption, it will be a shorter term.

我認為，如果有任何中斷，那將是一個較短的期限。

Okay.

好的。

So my follow-up question on that is smartphone, we understand.

所以我的後續問題是智能手機，我們理解。

So if A brand, they lose share, B, C brands will pick up.

所以如果A品牌，他們失去份額，B，C品牌會回升。

But what about the infrastructure?

但是基礎設施呢？

If there is a disruption on the infrastructure because one of the key infrastructure supplier may not have the critical processors, so which means the whole 5G infra build-out maybe slowed down, postponed?

如果由於關鍵基礎設施供應商之一可能沒有關鍵處理器而導致基礎設施中斷，那麼這是否意味著整個 5G 基礎設施建設可能會放緩、推遲？

And what's the point of having those 5G smartphone with the whole supply chain, the whole 5G thesis been postponed?

讓那些擁有整個供應鏈的 5G 智能手機，整個 5G 論文被推遲有什麼意義？

I think industry will find I think there's no businesses with just 1 player for too long, okay?

我認為業界會發現我認為沒有任何企業只有一名玩家太久，好嗎？

The second and third player will sooner or later will come up and it could be pretty soon.

第二個和第三個玩家遲早會出現，而且可能很快就會出現。

And in our business, always a competitive environment.

在我們的業務中，始終存在競爭環境。

So yes, we have a #1 enter the market, but the #2 and #3 is not too far away.

所以是的，我們有一個#1 進入市場，但#2 和#3 並不太遠。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is on the guidance that the company get this year that the foundry industry is growing 17%.

我的第二個問題是關於公司今年獲得的鑄造行業增長 17% 的指導。

Semis, excluding memory, it's about 8%.

Semis，不包括內存，大約是 8%。

And I think if I look at historically, the -- usually, I think the formula for TSMC's growth is usually the global GDP.

而且我認為，如果我從歷史上看，通常，我認為台積電增長的公式通常是全球 GDP。

And semi is about like 2, 3 percent point above that, foundry a little bit above that and TSMC is a little bit above that.

semi 大約高出 2、3 個百分點，代工廠略高於此，台積電略高於此。

So TSMC get a 5% to 10% of the CAGR.

因此台積電獲得了 5% 到 10% 的 CAGR。

So I think that is a very simple formula.

所以我認為這是一個非常簡單的公式。

But has the formula changed?

但是公式變了嗎？

So I mean that historically, semiconductor is highly correlated with the global GDP growth to some extent.

所以我的意思是，從歷史上看，半導體在某種程度上與全球 GDP 增長高度相關。

So if TSMC with the foundry industry growing faster, is it like the foundry/ TSMC becomes the outlier or it's because also that you're implying that the whole economy is growing faster?

因此，如果台積電的代工行業增長更快，是因為代工/台積電成為異常值，還是因為您也在暗示整個經濟增長更快？

Now at this time, we have a higher growth rate, right, for foundry and for TSMC.

現在這個時候，我們有更高的增長率，對，對於代工和台積電來說。

It all because it's driven by 5G and AI's application.

這一切都是因為它是由 5G 和 AI 的應用驅動的。

So whether we can increase our forecast.

所以我們是否可以增加我們的預測。

For example, TSMC always say 5% to 10% CAGR is that our goal.

例如，台積電總是說 5% 到 10% 的 CAGR 是我們的目標。

We certainly hope that we can exceed that.

我們當然希望我們能夠超越這一點。

But this year, it's still too early to say.

但今年，現在說還為時過早。

But we stay what we said.

但我們堅持我們所說的。

The foundry industry will be 17% and TSMC will be better than that.

代工行業將是 17%，台積電會更好。

Sebastian, let me add to this.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我補充一下。

This year, if the formula does change a bit, we put it in the Korean -- captive Korean player foundry -- captive into the foundry, okay, which is they do that and constantly.

今年，如果公式確實發生了一些變化，我們把它放在韓國 - 俘虜韓國玩家鑄造廠 - 俘虜進入鑄造廠，好吧，他們一直在這樣做。

So this time, we put the Korean player's captive into the foundry business.

所以這一次，我們把韓國玩家的俘虜投入了代工業務。

So that's why you see the growth quite faster.

所以這就是為什麼你看到增長相當快的原因。

Okay.

好的。

So -- but if we also look at -- I think the company also made a comment that you're seeing your 5-year CAGR to be higher, at the high end of the 5% to 10%.

所以——但如果我們也看看——我認為該公司還發表評論說，你看到你的 5 年復合年增長率更高，在 5% 到 10% 的高端。

So it's not just 1 year, it's just a flash in the pan.

所以這不僅僅是1年，這只是曇花一現。

So I think if you look at the longer time frame, which means I think there will be more -- I think the correlation with the global GDP, I think that makes more sense, more representative.

所以我認為如果你看更長的時間框架，這意味著我認為會有更多 - 我認為與全球 GDP 的相關性，我認為這更有意義，更具代表性。

So does that also mean that like semis and tech innovation is going to drive the global economy grow faster in the next couple of years?

那麼這是否也意味著半導體和技術創新將在未來幾年推動全球經濟更快增長？

Or is it just because global GDP still grow as the growth at 2%, 3% but semis, foundries, TSMC become the outlier, that gap is getting bigger?

還是僅僅因為全球GDP仍然以2%、3%的速度增長，但半導體、代工廠、台積電成為異類，差距越來越大？

Oh, we don't want to say it's outlier.

哦，我們不想說它是異常值。

We continue to forecast global GDP still in a normal situation, provided the trade tension between the 2 big countries did not deteriorate.

如果兩個大國之間的貿易緊張局勢沒有惡化，我們繼續預測全球 GDP 仍處於正常狀態。

But for semiconductor, I want to say that the content of the semiconductor in our life continue to increase, provide -- see that -- you can see the big example in the smartphone.

但是對於半導體，我想說的是，我們生活中半導體的含量不斷增加，提供——看到那個——你可以看到智能手機中的大例子。

You can see the big example in the automotive.

您可以在汽車中看到一個重要的例子。

And you can see that IoT is a big increase also.

你可以看到物聯網也是一個很大的增長。

So now it's changing our world.

所以現在它正在改變我們的世界。

And that all because of semiconductor content.

而這一切都是因為半導體含量。

It's not because of what GDP suddenly become grow faster.

這不是因為GDP突然變得更快了。

And it's not because of semiconductors is an outlier.

這並不是因為半導體是異常值。

It will continue to be this way.

它將繼續如此。

Yes.

是的。

And remember, last year, as Wendell said, the -- it's the semi industry ex memory was a year of decline.

請記住，去年，正如溫德爾所說，半導體行業前記憶是衰退的一年。

So obviously, there's a base effect in play as well for 2020.

很明顯，2020 年也有一個基本效應。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I'm talking about 5 years.

我說的是5年。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's move back to the line, please, and we'll take the next question from the line, please, operator?

讓我們回到線路，請，我們將從線路中接下一個問題，拜託，接線員？

Your question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

您的問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I have one clarification.

我有一個澄清。

When you were referring to 5-nanometer, does that include 6?

當您提到 5 納米時，是否包括 6 納米？

And if it doesn't, what is your view of availability of 6-nanometer by year-end '20?

如果沒有，您對 20 年年底 6 納米的可用性有何看法？

Do I have to repeat the question?

我必須重複這個問題嗎？

You say that 5-nanometer is including 6 or not.

你說5納米是不是包括6。

Now 6 is 7 nanometer's family.

現在6是7納米的家族。

So we look at the 7, 7+, 6 as a 1 family.

因此，我們將 7、7+、6 視為一個家庭。

5 is another big node.

5 是另一個大節點。

Okay.

好的。

And you're still on schedule to have 6 available by end of this year, correct?

而且你仍然按計劃在今年年底前有 6 個可用，對嗎？

Volume production at the end of this year.

今年年底量產。

Right now, it's ready for our customers' tape-out.

現在，它已經為我們的客戶的流片做好了準備。

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

And then in terms of just the we're talking about the growth, more than 20%.

然後就我們所說的增長而言，超過 20%。

At the same time, one of the leading microprocessor manufacturer based in North America has talked about increased outsourcing.

與此同時，北美領先的微處理器製造商之一也談到了增加外包。

And I just want to get your view.

我只是想听聽你的看法。

When you look into the longer term, would there be a structural change in semiconductor manufacturing, where TSMC would actually be able to grab a higher market share because they will be more outsourcing specifically from a key company based in North America?

從長遠來看，半導體製造是否會發生結構性變化，台積電實際上將能夠獲得更高的市場份額，因為他們將更多地外包給總部位於北美的主要公司？

All right.

好的。

Let me repeat your question, Mehdi.

讓我重複你的問題，邁赫迪。

I think you're asking us to comment on the potential for an increased outsourcing from a major microprocessor or CPU vendor.

我認為您是在要求我們評論從主要微處理器或 CPU 供應商增加外包的可能性。

Long term, could this be a structural change and the potential for longer term outsourcing?

從長遠來看，這可能是結構性變化和長期外包的潛力嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We certainly welcome that outsourcing continue to grow.

我們當然歡迎外包繼續增長。

And for TSMC, all I can say is that we develop the technology to meet our customers' requirement.

而對於台積電，我只能說我們開發技術是為了滿足客戶的需求。

And we are confident that we are the best technology leader and we have excellent manufacturing.

我們相信我們是最好的技術領導者，我們擁有出色的製造能力。

And of course, as a result, we expect that we gain some market share out of it.

當然，因此，我們希望我們從中獲得一些市場份額。

But that is for the future for TSMC's growth.

但那是為台積電的未來發展。

And I cannot be more specific than that.

我不能比這更具體。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's move on.

讓我們繼續前進。

We have a follow-up question from the line from JPMorgan's Gokul Hariharan.

我們有一個來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 的後續問題。

So a quick question on the high end of the 5% to 10% growth.

所以一個關於 5% 到 10% 增長的高端問題的快速問題。

Could you talk a little bit about why only high end of 5% to 10% when the CapEx to be seems to be 40% to 50% from the last kind of $10 billion to $12 billion -- $10 billion to $11 billion CapEx change over the last 5 years?

你能談談為什麼只有 5% 到 10% 的高端資本支出似乎從上一種 100 億美元到 120 億美元的 40% 到 50% - 100 億美元到 110 億美元的資本支出變化過去 5 年？

Any reasons why we are a bit more cautious?

有什麼理由讓我們更加謹慎？

Do we feel that the 5G cycle after a couple of years could start to kind of decelerate?

我們是否覺得幾年後的 5G 週期會開始減速？

Especially given this year, we are already starting off with a very strong 20% kind of growth.

特別是考慮到今年，我們已經開始以非常強勁的 20% 的增長。

So just wanted to think about the puts and takes in terms of the high end of 5% to 10%, then why not stronger than that growth, given the big jump in CapEx and indication that CapEx could stay around these levels even going into the 3-nanometer era.

因此，只想考慮 5% 到 10% 的高端看跌期權，那麼為什麼不比增長更強勁，因為資本支出的大幅增長以及表明資本支出甚至可以保持在這些水平甚至進入3納米時代。

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, let me try to summarize your question.

Gokul，讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

Basically, Gokul was asking why our long-term growth target is only at the high end of 5% to 10% when our CapEx has increased 40% to 50% versus the $10 billion to $12 billion in the past.

基本上，Gokul 是在問為什麼我們的長期增長目標只有 5% 到 10% 的高端，而我們的資本支出從過去的 100 億美元到 120 億美元增長了 40% 到 50%。

He is asking or wondering, is this because we think -- take a more cautious view that 5G cycle may be strong this year and next year but may slow down after that?

他在問或想知道，這是否是因為我們認為——更謹慎地認為，今年和明年 5G 週期可能會很強勁，但之後可能會放緩？

And so why do we still say at the high end of 5% to 10%?

那麼為什麼我們仍然說 5% 到 10% 的高端呢？

Last year, before we increased the CapEx, we were looking at somewhere in the middle of that 5% to 10%.

去年，在我們增加資本支出之前，我們的目標是介於 5% 到 10% 之間。

But afterwards, when we see the ramp in 5G deployment, we increased the CapEx.

但之後，當我們看到 5G 部署的增長時，我們增加了資本支出。

And now we're looking at high end of the 5% to 10% range.

現在我們正在關注 5% 到 10% 範圍的高端。

So that is the difference.

所以這就是區別。

And also let me explain this from a capital intensity point of view.

也讓我從資本密集度的角度來解釋這一點。

Last year, while we increased the CapEx, the capital intensity was over 40%.

去年，雖然我們增加了資本支出，但資本密集度超過了 40%。

This year, we think it will be lower than 40%.

今年，我們認為會低於40%。

And from next year on, although it's still pretty early, we think it will be somewhere between 30% or 35%, which is dissimilar to the old norm that we used to say before.

從明年開始，雖然還為時尚早，但我們認為它會在 30% 或 35% 之間，這與我們之前所說的舊標準不同。

Gokul, do you have a second question?

Gokul，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just one more broader question for Dr. Liu.

劉博士還有一個更廣泛的問題。

At a Board level, Dr. Liu, could you talk a little bit about how the Board thinks about TSMC's positioning as a foundry for everyone, everybody's foundry, given the broader geopolitical changes that are happening?

在董事會層面，劉博士，鑑於正在發生的更廣泛的地緣政治變化，您能否談談董事會如何看待台積電作為每個人的代工廠、每個人的代工廠的定位？

I don't want to go into each episode in terms of like the change in the de minimis rule, et cetera.

我不想進入每一集，比如最低限度規則的變化等等。

But thinking 4 to 5 years out, how does -- or what are the steps that the Board is considering to kind of -- to ensure that TSMC can remain everybody's foundry even in a more challenging kind of geopolitical environment and a lot more policy kind of blips compared to, say, the last 5 to 7 years?

但想想 4 到 5 年後，如何——或者說董事會正在考慮採取哪些步驟——以確保台積電即使在更具挑戰性的地緣政治環境和更多的政策環境中也能成為每個人的代工企業與過去的 5 到 7 年相比，出現了多少變化？

Okay.

好的。

Let me try to summarize your question.

讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

Again, I think he's asking -- Gokul's asking for Mark to please share your thoughts on, from a Board level, TSMC's positioning as everyone's foundry.

再一次，我認為他在問 - Gokul 要求馬克從董事會層面分享你對台積電作為每個人的代工廠的定位的想法。

Of course, we're facing a lot of different geopolitical changes and challenges.

當然，我們面臨著許多不同的地緣政治變化和挑戰。

Gokul doesn't need us to comment on each one.

Gokul 不需要我們對每一個進行評論。

But generally, how are we thinking about 5 to 7 years out, how TSMC can position ourselves and how we can remain to be everyone's foundry?

但總的來說，我們如何考慮 5 到 7 年後，台積電如何定位自己，以及我們如何繼續成為每個人的代工？

Yes.

是的。

The -- first of all, currently, we discussed the strategy with the Board.

- 首先，目前，我們與董事會討論了該戰略。

And the Board fully agree with our current strategy, okay?

董事會完全同意我們目前的戰略，好嗎？

And of course, this strategy contains several necessary component.

當然，這個策略包含幾個必要的組成部分。

First of all, we develop our technology ourselves.

首先，我們自己開發我們的技術。

All the technology, IP and know-how and technology all developed in Taiwan here.

所有的技術、IP、專有技術和技術都是在台灣開發的。

Secondly is, another necessary element is our technology has to be leaders.

其次，另一個必要因素是我們的技術必須是領導者。

When you're technology leaders, people will have to come to you.

當你是技術領導者時，人們將不得不來找你。

And that's how we maintain to be everyone's foundry.

這就是我們保持成為每個人的代工廠的方式。

There are exceptions, of course, because of their domestic trade policy that I cannot overcome.

當然，也有例外，因為我無法克服他們的國內貿易政策。

But basically, that so far, this strategy should be able to play on.

但基本上，到目前為止，這種策略應該能夠發揮作用。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your question, Gokul?

這能回答你的問題嗎，Gokul？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let's come back to the floor and see if there's any follow-up questions from anyone?

讓我們回到地板上，看看是否有人提出任何後續問題？

Morgan Stanley, Charlie?

摩根士丹利，查理？

So first of all, for first quarter, you mentioned that utilization rates are higher.

所以首先，對於第一季度，您提到利用率更高。

But in terms of U.S. dollars revenue go down slightly.

但就美元而言，收入略有下降。

So what is the ASP or product mix change here?

那麼這裡的 ASP 或產品組合變化是什麼？

So Charlie is asking that we said first quarter, the utilization rate will slightly increase.

所以查理問我們說第一季度，利用率會略有增加。

But our U.S. -- our guidance shows a slight decrease in the U.S. -- the revenue in terms of U.S. dollars.

但是我們的美國——我們的指導顯示美國的收入略有下降——以美元計。

So why is that?

那為什麼呢？

Does that imply an ASP change?

這是否意味著 ASP 發生變化？

Last year, fourth quarter or even third quarter last year, part of the wafer revenue come from wafers prepared in the first quarter -- first half of 2019, when the utilization was pretty low.

去年第四季度甚至去年第三季度，部分晶圓收入來自第一季度準備的晶圓——2019年上半年，當時利用率很低。

And we're pretty much digesting all of those already.

我們幾乎已經消化了所有這些。

Okay.

好的。

So it looks like the year is open, right?

所以看起來今年是開放的，對吧？

But do you see any kind of any next data points, for example, any segment or any customers cutting forecast or orders recently?

但是您是否看到任何類型的任何下一個數據點，例如，任何細分市場或任何客戶最近削減預測或訂單？

Can you comment on that?

你能對此發表評論嗎？

No, we did not see that.

不，我們沒有看到。

And lastly, it's a little bit subtle, right?

最後，它有點微妙，對吧？

CapEx, I think 3 months ago -- I think the guidance for this year, CapEx is USD 14 billion to USD 15 billion.

資本支出，我認為是 3 個月前——我認為今年的指導資本支出為 140 億美元至 150 億美元。

But now it's like slight USD 1 billion higher.

但現在它稍微高出 10 億美元。

So what is that additional CapEx for?

那麼額外的資本支出有什麼用呢？

Is that mainly for 7-nanometer or 5-nanometer?

主要是針對 7 納米還是 5 納米？

Well, other than the advanced technology, we also mentioned earlier, we also increased the CapEx this year for specialty technology as well as advanced packaging.

好吧，除了我們之前提到的先進技術之外，我們今年還增加了專業技術和先進封裝的資本支出。

So those are the areas that we are focusing on.

所以這些是我們關注的領域。

And lastly, if I may, I guess a market share question.

最後，如果可以的話，我猜是市場份額問題。

We appreciate that the company provide your assumption for industry growth, right?

我們感謝該公司提供您對行業增長的假設，對吧？

So I guess, first of all, we want to clarify when you add Korea captive foundry in the comparison, is that an apple-to-apple comparison, meaning do you include that into last year's revenue base?

所以我想，首先，我們想澄清一下，當您在比較中添加韓國專屬代工廠時，這是蘋果與蘋果之間的比較，您是否將其包括在去年的收入基礎中？

I think we did, right?

我想我們做到了，對吧？

Yes, we did.

是的我們做了。

Okay.

好的。

So include then, apple-to-apple comparison is up 17%.

所以包括那麼，蘋果與蘋果的比較上升了 17%。

Up 17%.

上漲 17%。

Okay.

好的。

And then (inaudible) to China competitors' market share, I think that's a...

然後（聽不清）中國競爭對手的市場份額，我認為這是...

I think that probably needs to correct it.

我認為這可能需要糾正它。

I don't think we include the foundry growth in last year, the Samsung captive supply.

我認為我們不包括去年的代工增長，三星的專屬供應。

So the growth is 17% is particularly high.

所以增長是17%是特別高的。

Okay.

好的。

So what is kind of apple-to-apple comparison then?

那麼什麼是蘋果對蘋果的比較呢？

I think 6 points.

我覺得6分。

So it will be [17%] (corrected by company after the call) if you apple-to-apple comparison.

因此，如果您進行蘋果對蘋果的比較，它將是 [17%]（在電話會議後由公司更正）。

Okay.

好的。

So based on that kind of [17%] (corrected by company after the call) industry growth, right, I think lots of investors are asking whether you're sort of losing market share in China because China want to push the localization, right?

所以基於那種 [17%] （在電話會議後由公司更正）的行業增長，對，我認為很多投資者都在問你是否因為中國想要推動本地化而失去了在中國的市場份額，對吧?

Some chatters are talking about SMIC taking more orders from you guys at 14-nanometer.

一些喋喋不休的人在談論中芯國際在 14 納米方面從你們那裡獲得更多訂單。

Can you also comment a little bit on this front?

你也可以在這方面發表一點評論嗎？

Usually, we don't specifically answer this kind of very sensitive questions specifically on one competitor.

通常，我們不會專門針對某個競爭對手專門回答這類非常敏感的問題。

But let me tell you that what the newspaper say is not true.

但是讓我告訴你，報紙上說的不是真的。

All right.

好的。

thank you.

謝謝。

Charlie, also let me just clarify, last time, we did not say that $14 billion to $15 billion for 2020 CapEx.

查理，也讓我澄清一下，上次，我們沒有說 2020 年資本支出為 140 億至 150 億美元。

We said it will probably stay at a similar level as 2019.

我們說它可能會保持在與 2019 年相似的水平。

But we do not specifically say that dollar range, all right?

但是我們不具體說美元範圍，好嗎？

Just to clarify.

只是為了澄清。

All right.

好的。

Let's go back to the line.

讓我們回到這條線。

Sorry, we have a follow-up from SIG, Mehdi.

抱歉，我們有來自 SIG 的後續跟進，Mehdi。

Wanted to go back to your commentary about the 5G phone.

想回到你對 5G 手機的評論。

And how should I think about opportunities if I were to think about the sub-6 versus millimeter wave?

如果我要考慮亞 6 波與毫米波，我應該如何考慮機會？

And specifically, do you think that this year, opportunities with mobile, you talked about a 20% -- more than 20% growth.

具體來說，您認為今年移動機會的增長是 20% - 超過 20%。

Is that all going to be sub-6?

這一切都會低於6嗎？

Or is it going to be a mix of the 2 technologies?

還是這兩種技術的混合？

Okay.

好的。

The question is clear enough.

這個問題已經夠清楚了。

If the 5G grows, is that because of sub-6 or the millimeter wave?

如果 5G 增長，是因為 sub-6 還是毫米波？

And my answer is both, okay?

我的答案是兩者，好嗎？

That's the 5G's phone and the base station is for sub-6 and the millimeter wave.

那是5G的手機，基站是sub-6和毫米波的。

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

你還有第二個問題嗎，邁赫迪？

Yes.

是的。

Actually, if I were to have a follow-up, do you think you will actually be building a millimeter wave phone or for millimeter wave, it's just going to be limited to base station?

實際上，如果我進行後續跟進，您認為您真的會製造毫米波電話還是毫米波，它僅限於基站？

Okay.

好的。

Actually, the phone is much easier to build with millimeter wave plus sub-6.

實際上，使用毫米波加 sub-6 來構建手機要容易得多。

The base station probably will have a much higher number in sub-6 rather than millimeter wave.

基站可能會在 sub-6 而不是毫米波中具有更高的數量。

All right.

好的。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

We have a follow-up from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

我們收到了瑞士信貸 Randy Abrams 的後續跟進。

You talked about the good investment in the backend.

您談到了對後端的良好投資。

Last year, I think you said $2.5 billion was the revenue run rate in 2018.

去年，我想你說過 25 億美元是 2018 年的收入運行率。

If you can maybe give a view the size of the business now and maybe what type of growth you're expecting for this year.

如果您可以查看現在的業務規模，以及您預計今年的增長類型。

Yes.

是的。

The revenue size of backend was $2.8 billion in 2019.

2019 年後端的收入規模為 28 億美元。

We're expecting double-digit growth for this year, mid-teens.

我們預計今年會有兩位數的增長，十幾歲。

Mid-teens, right.

十幾歲，對。

Okay.

好的。

And if I could ask on the 2 other areas that don't get as much attention, automotive and IoT.

如果我可以問其他兩個沒有受到太多關注的領域，那就是汽車和物聯網。

So automotive was depressed last year.

所以去年汽車行業很蕭條。

But I think you're talking about a pretty big pickup to grow teens.

但我認為你在談論一個相當大的皮卡來培養青少年。

Could you talk to the areas, like if it's just cyclical rebound or if there are certain types of products or components coming back for the automotive, where you're gaining content share?

你能否談談這些領域，比如它只是周期性反彈，或者是否有某些類型的產品或零部件回歸汽車，你在哪些方面獲得了內容份額？

And for the automotive -- sorry, for the IOT, it was very strong growth.

對於汽車——對不起，對於物聯網，這是非常強勁的增長。

It's a big category.

這是一個很大的類別。

So if you could maybe center on if there's a few particular pieces within IoT driving the momentum for that category.

因此，如果您可以關注物聯網中是否有一些特定的部分推動了該類別的發展勢頭。

Well, actually the growth of this year, most come from the content increase rather than the unit increase.

嗯，其實今年的增長，大部分來自內容的增長，而不是單位的增長。

Because we -- I just mentioned that it will be mid-teens, right, mid-teens increase.

因為我們——我剛剛提到它將是青少年，對，青少年會增加。

Certainly, it's not mid-teens unit.

當然，這不是青少年單位。

You don't expect so many car being sold.

你不會期望有這麼多車被賣掉。

And so it's a content -- the semiconductor content increase is more important than the unit.

所以這是一個內容——半導體含量的增加比單位更重要。

And then Randy is also asking about for IoT, are there specific areas or segments that's driving the growth in IoT?

然後 Randy 也在詢問物聯網，是否有特定的領域或細分市場在推動物聯網的增長？

Wearable is very popular now everywhere.

可穿戴設備現在到處都很流行。

And according to our Chairman, content also increased.

據我們的主席說，內容也增加了。

Next, we have a follow-up from Citigroup, Roland Shu.

接下來，我們有來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu 的跟進。

Yes.

是的。

Last time, CEO guide this, you expected the 7-nanometer revenue will continue to grow in 2020.

上次CEO指導這個，你預計2020年7納米收入會繼續增長。

So do you still hold to the view?

那你還堅持觀點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So how much growth it will be this year?

那麼今年會增長多少呢？

So last year, we have 27%.

所以去年，我們有 27%。

Is this able to above the highest level of 20-nanometer, around 34%?

這是否能夠超過 20 納米的最高水平，大約 34%？

Close.

關閉。

Okay.

好的。

And also for 7-nanometer, do you see any competitor with the technology breakthrough and likely to impact or taking your market share in the near term?

對於 7 納米，您是否看到任何具有技術突破並可能在短期內影響或占據您的市場份額的競爭對手？

Can you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Do you see any competitors with 7-nanometer technology breakthrough and will likely to threat you or take your market share going forward.

您是否看到任何具有 7 納米技術突破並可能威脅您或搶占您的市場份額的競爭對手。

We will continue to hold a very high market share.

我們將繼續保持很高的市場份額。

That's all we can say.

這就是我們所能說的。

And I don't comment on my competitor.

我不評論我的競爭對手。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

My second question is you said that you continue expanding your customer and the product portfolio.

我的第二個問題是你說你繼續擴大你的客戶和產品組合。

And so you have new customers and the products from cryptocurrency in 2018.

所以你在 2018 年有了新客戶和來自加密貨幣的產品。

And the last year, you have this new CPU foundry outsourcing as your new customer in technology.

去年，您將這個新的 CPU 代工廠外包為您的技術新客戶。

So how about this year?

那麼今年呢？

Do you see any new customers or new applications to contribute to your growth?

您是否看到任何新客戶或新應用程序有助於您的增長？

If this year's growth, counting on my customer is what we engaged last year already.

如果今年的增長，依靠我的客戶是我們去年已經參與的。

So as I said, we continue to expand our product portfolio, and we continue to increase the number of our customers.

所以正如我所說，我們繼續擴大我們的產品組合，我們繼續增加我們的客戶數量。

So I think the content increase along with 5G penetration is the major phenomenon, including the leading-edge as well as the mature nodes.

所以我認為隨著 5G 的普及，內容的增加是主要的現象，包括領先的和成熟的節點。

And it's just a wide spread of customers or existing customers.

它只是廣泛的客戶或現有客戶。

Okay.

好的。

We have a follow-up here from CLSA, Sebastian Hou.

我們有來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou 的後續跟進。

My first follow-up is we heard that the 7-nanometer demand is very strong at TSMC.

我的第一個跟進是我們聽說台積電對 7 納米的需求非常強勁。

And most of the customers are on allocation mode right now.

而且大多數客戶現在都處於分配模式。

So with the step-up of CapEx for this year, I believe some of that also devote into 7-nanometer for this year.

因此，隨著今年資本支出的增加，我相信其中一些人也會在今年投入到 7 納米。

Do you still expect this similar tightness that your customer may experience on 7-nanometer by the end of this year?

您是否仍然期望您的客戶在今年年底之前可能會在 7 納米上體驗到這種類似的緊密度？

We do have very high demand from 7-nanometer.

我們對 7 納米的需求確實很高。

And we work very hard to meet customers' demand.

我們非常努力地滿足客戶的需求。

Last year, we announced we put $1.5 billion more to increase the 7 nanometers capacity.

去年，我們宣布再投入 15 億美元來增加 7 納米的產能。

We work hard to increase the capacity.

我們努力提高產能。

Yes.

是的。

With 5-nanometer ramp up in the second half of this year, the tightness of 7-nanometer we hopefully can be soothed a bit for the customers.

隨著今年下半年 5 納米的增加，我們希望 7 納米的緊張度可以為客戶緩解一點。

Okay.

好的。

And is there -- are there any process nodes that TSMC is seeing not growing this year?

有沒有 - 台積電今年沒有看到任何工藝節點？

28-nanometer.

28 納米。

But 28 is already pretty low last year.

但去年 28 已經相當低了。

But you're still seeing that not growing?

但你仍然看到它沒有增長？

You say not growing, right, not growing.

你說不增長，對，不增長。

All right.

好的。

So even for 16, 12, this platform, TSMC also expects that to go up.

所以即使是16、12這個平台，台積電也預計會漲。

Okay.

好的。

So that's why you say that the newspaper is wrong.

所以這就是為什麼你說報紙是錯誤的。

I don't want to be so specific.

我不想說得這麼具體。

Okay.

好的。

Well, that's pretty clear.

嗯，這很清楚。

All right.

好的。

In the interest of time, we'll see if there's any last questions from anybody.

為了時間，我們會看看是否有任何人最後的問題。

If not, then this concludes our Q&A session.

如果沒有，那麼我們的問答環節就結束了。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起 4 小時內將可以看到會議的重播。

The transcript will be available within 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

成績單將在從現在起 24 小時內提供，兩者都將通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 提供。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, Happy New Year, and have a great day.

再見，新年快樂，祝你有美好的一天。