台積電 ADR (TSM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Happy New Year to everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Deputy Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. (Operator Instructions) As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

(外語)祝大家新年快樂，歡迎參加台積電2019年第四季財報發表會及電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係副總監、今天的主持人 Jeff Su。今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播。（操作員指示）由於本次會議將受到全球投資者的關注，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year of 2019, followed by our guidance for the first quarter of 2020. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們2019年第四季和2019年全年的營運情況，然後介紹我們對2020年第一季的指導。隨後，黃先生與台積電執行長C.C.博士進行了會談。魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。然後，台積電董事長劉德華博士將主持問答環節，三位高階主管將解答您的問題。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's earnings conference presentation.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有新聞稿的副本，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。請同時下載與今天的收益會議簡報相關的摘要投影片。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. So please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。因此，請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把麥克風交給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生，請他總結營運情況並給出本季的指引。

Thank you, Jeff. Happy New Year, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of full year 2019. After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter of 2020.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家新年快樂。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和 2019 年全年的回顧開始。之後，我將提供2020年第一季的指導。

Fourth quarter revenue increased 8.3% sequentially to TWD 317 billion, driven by high-end smartphones, initial 5G deployment and HPC-related applications using TSMC's industry-leading 7-nanometer technology. Gross margin increased 2.6 percentage points sequentially to 50.2%, thanks to a higher level of capacity utilization and continuous cost improvement, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. Total operating expenses increased by TWD 3.6 billion, reflecting higher development activities for 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer as well as opening expenses in preparation for 5-nanometer ramp. Operating margin increased by 2.4 percentage points sequentially to 39.2%. Overall, our fourth quarter EPS reached TWD 4.47 and ROE was 28.9%.

第四季營收季增 8.3% 至 3,170 億新台幣，這得益於高階智慧型手機、初始 5G 部署以及採用台積電業界領先的 7 奈米技術的 HPC 相關應用。毛利率較上季成長 2.6 個百分點至 50.2%，這得益於產能利用率提高和成本持續改善，但部分被不利的外匯匯率所抵銷。總營業費用增加了 36 億新台幣，反映了 5 奈米和 3 奈米開發活動的增加，以及為準備 5 奈米產能而產生的開業費用。營業利益率較上季成長2.4個百分點，達到39.2%。整體而言，第四季每股盈餘達新台幣4.47元，股本報酬率達28.9%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology. 7-nanometer process technology continue to ramp strongly and accounted for 35% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter. 10-nanometer was 1% and 16-nanometer was 20%. Advanced technologies, defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 56% of wafer revenue, up from 51% in the third quarter. On a full year basis, 7-nanometer contribution increased from 9% in 2018 to 27% of wafer revenue in 2019. 10-nanometer was 3% and 16-nanometer was 20%. Advanced technologies accounted for 50% of total wafer revenue, up from 41% in 2018.

現在讓我們來看看按技術劃分的收入。7奈米製程技術持續強勁成長，佔第四季晶圓營收的35%。10奈米為1％，16奈米為20％。先進技術（定義為 16 奈米及以下）佔晶圓收入的 56%，高於第三季的 51%。從全年來看，7奈米貢獻度從2018年的9%成長至2019年的晶圓收入的27%。10奈米為3%，16奈米為20%。先進技術佔晶圓總收入的50%，高於2018年的41%。

Now let's take a look at revenue contribution by platform. Our fourth quarter revenue growth was driven mainly by smartphone and HPC. Smartphone increased 16% quarter-over-quarter to account for 53% of our fourth quarter revenue. HPC increased 6% to account for 29%. IoT decreased 4% to account for 8%. Automotive remained flat and accounted 4%. On a full year basis, smartphone and IoT led the growth with 12% and 33%, respectively, while HPC, automotive and DCE decreased 8%, 7% and 8%, respectively. If we exclude cryptocurrency from both years, HPC would have grown mid-single-digit in 2019. Overall, smartphone accounted for 49% of our 2019 revenue; HPC, 30%; and IoT, 8%.

現在我們來看看各平台的收入貢獻。我們第四季的營收成長主要受到智慧型手機和高效能運算的推動。智慧型手機季增 16%，占我們第四季營收的 53%。HPC成長6%，佔29%。物聯網下降4%，佔8%。汽車業保持平穩，佔 4%。從全年來看，智慧型手機和物聯網分別以 12% 和 33% 的成長引領成長，而 HPC、汽車和 DCE 則分別下降 8%、7% 和 8%。如果我們將這兩年的加密貨幣排除在外，那麼 2019 年的 HPC 成長率將達到中等個位數。整體而言，智慧型手機占我們 2019 年營收的 49%； HPC，30%；物聯網佔 8%。

Moving onto the balance sheet. We ended fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 583 billion, flat versus the prior quarter. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 96 billion as we increased TWD 33 billion in short-term borrowings mainly for hedging purpose, TWD 51 billion in payables to suppliers and TWD 13 billion in dividends payable. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained at 41 days. Days of inventory decreased 10 days to 55 days due to higher wafer shipments during the quarter.

轉到資產負債表。第四季末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 5,830 億新台幣，與上一季持平。負債方面，流動負債增加960億新台幣，因短期借款增加330億新台幣（主要用於對沖目的）、應付供應商款項增加510億新台幣、應付股利增加130億新台幣。財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數維持在41天。由於本季晶圓出貨量增加，庫存天數減少 10 天至 55 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD 203 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 170 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 52 billion for first quarter '19 cash dividend. We also increased 33 -- TWD 36 billion in short-term loans for hedging purpose. Overall, our cash balance slightly increased TWD 3 billion to TWD 455 billion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our fourth quarter capital expenditures reached USD 5.6 billion and totaled USD 14.9 billion for the full year.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第四季度，我們從營運中產生了約 2,030 億新台幣的現金，資本支出為 1,700 億新台幣，並派發了 2019 年第一季現金股息 520 億新台幣。我們還增加了330億至360億新台幣的短期貸款用於對沖目的。總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額小幅增加了 30 億新台幣，達到 4,550 億新台幣。以美元計算，我們第四季的資本支出達到 56 億美元，全年資本支出總計 149 億美元。

Now let's take a look at the recap of our performance in 2019. 2019 was a challenging year for the global semiconductor industry given rising macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain inventory correction, to name a few. However, we are able to grow our revenue by 1.3% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms and 3.7% in NT dollar terms. Gross margin decreased 2.3 percentage points to 46% primarily because of lower capacity utilization in the first half of the year. Operating margin decreased 2.4 percentage points to 34.8%. Overall, full year EPS slightly declined 1.7% to TWD 13.32. On cash flow, we spent TWD 460 billion in Capex, while we generated TWD 615 billion in operating cash flow and TWD 155 billion in free cash flow. We also paid TWD 259 billion in cash dividends, an increase of 25% from the previous year.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們2019年的表現。由於宏觀經濟不確定性增加、供應鏈庫存調整等因素，2019 年對全球半導體產業來說是充滿挑戰的一年。然而，我們的營收以美元計算年增1.3%，以新台幣計算年增3.7%。毛利率下降2.3個百分點至46%，主要由於上半年產能利用率較低。營業利益率下降2.4個百分點至34.8%。整體而言，全年每股收益小幅下滑1.7%至13.32新台幣。現金流方面，資本支出4600億新台幣，營運現金流6150億新台幣，自由現金流1550億新台幣。並派發現金股利2,590億新台幣，較上年增加25%。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to first quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between USD 10.2 billion and USD 10.3 billion, which represents a 1.4% sequential decrease at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.9, gross margin is expected to be between 48.5% and 50.5%, operating margin between 37.5% and 39.5%.

我已經完成了財務總結。現在讓我們來看看第一季的指導。根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第一季營收將在 102 億美元至 103 億美元之間，中間值環比下降 1.4%。以1美元兌29.9新台幣的匯率假設計算，毛利率預計介於48.5%至50.5%之間，營業利潤率預計介於37.5%至39.5%之間。

Now I will look -- I would like to make one more comment on tax rate. In the past, we needed to accrue tax on undistributed earnings, which triggered a much higher tax rate in the second quarter. Now due to the tax regulation changes, we can offset the tax with our capital investments and no longer need to incur the tax expense on undistributed earnings. Meanwhile, we are still subjected to the alternative minimum tax. As a result, we will still have a full year tax rate approximately 12%, and this will be equally applied to all 4 quarters of the year. This concludes my financial presentation.

現在我來看看——我想就稅率再發表一點評論。過去，我們需要對未分配利潤計稅，這導致第二季的稅率大幅提高。現在由於稅法的變化，我們可以用資本投資來抵銷稅款，不再需要承擔未分配收益的稅費。同時，我們仍需要繳納替代性最低稅。因此，我們的全年稅率仍將約為 12%，並將平等適用於一年的所有 4 個季度。我的財務報告到此結束。

Let me follow by making a few comments about near-term demand in the inventory and 2020 capital budget. We concluded our fourth quarter with revenue of TWD 317.2 billion or USD 10.4 billion, slightly above our guidance, mainly due to better demand from smartphone-related applications than our forecast 3 months ago. Concluding 2019, the semiconductor industry excluding memory declined 3%, while foundry was flat. TSMC's revenue grew 1.3% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms, outpacing both the semiconductor ex memory and foundry industry growth.

接下來，我想就庫存的近期需求和 2020 年資本預算發表一些評論。我們第四季度的營收為 3,172 億新台幣或 104 億美元，略高於我們的預期，主要原因是智慧型手機相關應用程式的需求優於我們 3 個月前的預測。截至 2019 年年底，除記憶體以外的半導體產業下滑了 3%，而代工產業則持平。台積電的收入以美元計算年增 1.3%，超過了除記憶體以外的半導體和代工產業的成長。

On the inventory front, our fabless customers' overall inventory continue to be digested throughout the fourth quarter. We now expect it to reduce to the seasonal level exiting 2019, setting up a healthier inventory base entering 2020. Moving into first quarter 2020, despite mobile product seasonality, our business is expected to be better than the seasonality in recent years, supported by continued ramp of 5G smartphones.

在庫存方面，我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存在整個第四季度繼續被消化。我們現在預計，到 2019 年末，庫存量將降至季節性水平，為 2020 年建立更健康的庫存基礎。進入2020年第一季度，儘管行動產品具有季節性，但在5G智慧型手機持續成長的支持下，我們的業務預計將好於近年來的季節性。

Now I will talk about our capital budget in 2019 and 2020. We expect the ramp of 5G-related and HPC applications to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years. In order to meet this increased demand and support of customers' capacity needs, we raised our 2019 CapEx guidance by $4 billion to $14 billion to $15 billion, and we ended up spending $14.9 billion. Our 2020 capital budget is expected to be between $15 billion and $16 billion. Out of the $15 billion to $16 billion CapEx for 2020, about 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies including 3, 5 and 7-nanometers, about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask-making and about 10% for specialty technologies. With this level of capital spending in 2020, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

現在我來談談我們2019年和2020年的資本預算。我們預計，未來幾年 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的興起將推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。為了滿足日益增長的需求並支持客戶的產能需求，我們將 2019 年資本支出指引提高了 40 億美元，達到 140 億美元至 150 億美元，最終支出為 149 億美元。我們2020年的資本預算預計在150億美元至160億美元之間。在2020年的150億至160億美元的資本支出中，約80%的資本預算將用於包括3、5和7奈米在內的先進製程技術，約10%將用於先進封裝和掩模製造，約10%將用於特殊技術。鑑於 2020 年的資本支出水平，我們重申台積電將繼續致力於年度和季度可持續的現金股利。

Now let me turn the microphone to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風轉向 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start with our 2020 full year outlook. For the full year of 2020, we forecast the overall semiconductor market growth excluding memory to be 8%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 17%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth by several percentage points in U.S. dollar term. Our 2020 business will be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, where we see strong interests from all 4 growth platform, which are mobile, HPC, IoT and automotive.

謝謝你，溫德爾。女士們、先生們，午安。首先，我要對 2020 年全年進行展望。對於 2020 年全年，我們預測不包括記憶體的整體半導體市場成長率為 8%，而代工產業的成長率預計約為 17%。對於台積電而言，我們有信心以美元計算，我們的代工收入成長能夠超過其他幾個百分點。我們 2020 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 7 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持，我們看到所有四大成長平台（即行動、HPC、物聯網和汽車）的濃厚興趣。

Now let me talk about 5G and HPC as the major long-term growth driver for TSMC. We continue to see stronger deployment of 5G networks and smartphones in several major markets around the world. We reiterate mid-teens penetration rate for 5G smartphones of the total smartphone market in 2020. We also forecast a faster penetration of 5G smartphone as compared to 4G over the next several years while silicon content of 5G smartphone will be substantially higher than that of a 4G smartphone.

現在讓我來談談5G和HPC作為台積電長期成長的主要動力。我們繼續看到全球幾個主要市場 5G 網路和智慧型手機的部署更加強勁。我們重申，2020 年 5G 智慧型手機在整個智慧型手機市場的滲透率將達到十幾歲左右。我們也預測，未來幾年 5G 智慧型手機的普及速度將比 4G 智慧型手機更快，而 5G 智慧型手機的矽含量將大大高於 4G 智慧型手機。

In addition, the significant performance, bandwidth and latency improvement of 5G network will drive AI application and unlock new usage cases such as real-time response and control across many different types of connected end devices. We believe 5G is a multiyear megatrend that will a world where digital computation is increasingly ubiquitous, which will fuel the course of all 4 of our growth platform in the next several years.

此外，5G網路在效能、頻寬和延遲方面的顯著改善將推動人工智慧應用，並開啟新的用例，例如跨多種不同類型的連接終端設備的即時回應和控制。我們相信 5G 是一個多年的大趨勢，它將使數位運算變得越來越普遍，並將在未來幾年推動我們所有四個成長平台的發展。

With 5G driving exponential growth in the amount of big data being generated and continuous improvement in algorithms, a smarter and more intelligent world will require massive increase in computation power. Thus, HPC become another major long-term growth driver for TSMC. CPU, networking and AI accelerator will be the main growth area for our HPC platform. By working diligently to provide the foundry industry's most advanced technology and making it available to all the product innovators, TSMC can expand the pool of innovators who fuel the semiconductor industry growth. With the successful ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the upcoming ramp of N6, N5 and N3, we are able to widen our customer product portfolio and expand our addressable market.

隨著5G推動大數據量的指數級增長和演算法的不斷改進，更加智慧化的世界將需要運算能力的大幅提升。因此，HPC 將成為台積電的另一個大長期成長動力。CPU、網路和 AI 加速器將成為我們 HPC 平台的主要成長領域。透過努力提供代工產業最先進的技術並使其可供所有產品創新者使用，台積電可以擴大推動半導體產業發展的創新者隊伍。隨著 N7、N7+ 的成功量產以及即將量產的 N6、N5 和 N3，我們能夠拓寬客戶產品組合併擴大我們的目標市場。

We also see growth in networking, thanks to 5G infrastructure deployment over the next few years. With 5G and HPC applications as a major growth driver, we now expect to grow at the high end of our long-term growth projection of 5% to 10% CAGR in U.S. dollar terms.

由於未來幾年 5G 基礎設施的部署，我們也看到了網路的成長。隨著 5G 和 HPC 應用成為主要成長動力，我們現在預計其成長率將達到長期成長預測的高端，即以美元計算的 5% 至 10% 的複合年增長率。

Now I'll talk about the ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the status of N6. As N7 enters its third year of ramp, we continue to see very strong demand across a wide spectrum of products for mobile, HPC, IoT and automotive applications. Our N7+ is entering its second year of ramp. N7+ is the industry's first high-volume production with EUV photolithography technology while paving the way for N6. Our N6 provides a clear migration path for next wave N7 products as its design rules are fully compatible with N7 while providing 15% to 20% higher density, which improve power consumption when compared to N7. N6 is on track for risk production in first quarter this year and volume production before the end of this year. N6 will have 1 more EUV layer than N7+ and will further extend our N7 family well into the future. We expect our 7-nanometer family to continue to grow in its third year and contribute more than 30% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

現在我將討論 N7、N7+ 的提升以及 N6 的狀態。隨著 N7 進入發展的第三年，我們繼續看到行動、HPC、物聯網和汽車應用等廣泛產品的需求非常強勁。我們的 N7+ 即將進入第二個發展年。N7+是業界首款採用EUV微影技術實現量產的晶片，為N6奠定了基礎。我們的 N6 為下一波 N7 產品提供了清晰的遷移路徑，因為其設計規則與 N7 完全相容，同時提供 15% 到 20% 的更高密度，與 N7 相比，這改善了功耗。N6 預計今年第一季進行風險生產，並於今年底前實現量產。N6 將比 N7+ 多 1 個 EUV 層，並將進一步擴展我們的 N7 系列的未來。我們預計，7 奈米系列將在第三年繼續成長，並在 2020 年貢獻超過 30% 的晶圓收入。

Now allow me to talk about our N5 volume production. Our N5 technology is a full node stride from our N7, with 80% logic density gain and about a 20% speed gain compared with 7-nanometer. N5 will adopt EUV extensively and is well on track for volume production in first half this year and with good yield. We expect a very fast and smooth ramp of N5 in the second half of this year, driven by both mobile and HPC applications. We expect 5-nanometer to contribute about 10% of our wafer revenue in 2020. N5 will be the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA. We will offer continuous enhancement to further improve the performance, power and density of our 5-nanometer technology solution into the future as well. Thus, we are confident that 5-nanometer will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

現在請容許我談談我們的N5量產狀況。我們的 N5 技術比 N7 有了完整的節點跨越，與 7 奈米相比，邏輯密度提高了 80%，速度提高了約 20%。N5將廣泛採用EUV，預計今年上半年量產，且良率良好。我們預計，在行動和 HPC 應用的推動下，今年下半年 N5 將會快速平穩地成長。我們預計 5 奈米將為我們 2020 年的晶圓收入貢獻約 10%。N5將成為代工產業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的PPA。我們將持續改進，以進一步提高未來 5 奈米技術解決方案的性能、功率和密度。因此，我們有信心5奈米將成為台積電的另一個重大且持久的節點。

Finally, I'll talk about our N3 status. We are working with customers on N3's design, and the technology development progress is going well. We have many technology options in development and we carefully evaluate all the different approaches. Our decision is based on technology, maturity, performance and cost. Our N3 will offer another full node scaling benefit in terms of performance, power and density as compared with our N5 technology. We expect our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced. We will announce more details about our N3 technology at our TSMC North America Technology Symposium on April 29.

最後，我來談談我們的N3狀況。我們正在與客戶合作進行N3的設計，技術開發進展順利。我們正在開發許多技術選擇，並仔細評估所有不同的方法。我們的決定是基於技術、成熟度、性能和成本。與我們的 N5 技術相比，我們的 N3 將在效能、功率和密度方面提供另一個完整節點擴展優勢。我們預計，我們的 3 奈米技術推出後將成為 PPA 和電晶體技術中最先進的代工技術。我們將於 4 月 29 日在台積電北美技術研討會上公佈有關 N3 技術的更多細節。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Okay. Thank you. This concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions)

好的。謝謝。我們的準備聲明到此結束。（操作員指示）

So now let's begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question will come from the floor. Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。我們的第一個問題來自現場。瑞士信貸，蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Yes. I guess with the trade war eased a bit, there's still a couple of maybe political issues out there so I wanted to just start with that. The first one, if you could give some color on TSMC's U.S. content and just if -- maybe the calculation, there's talk about content threshold lowered to 10%, and if -- there's some talk that the equipment may be excluded from that calculation. So if you could give a bit more color about that.

是的。我想，隨著貿易戰有所緩和，可能仍然存在一些政治問題，所以我想從這個開始。第一個問題，如果您可以介紹一下台積電在美國的內容，以及如果——也許是計算，有傳言說內容門檻降低到 10%，並且如果——有傳言說該設備可能會被排除在計算之外。所以如果你能對此進行更詳細的說明的話。

And then second, with more of the geopolitical concerns about some of the military technology. You've talked in the past about not needing toward having more scale with the fabs in Taiwan, but if any new considerations on the fab location.

其次，人們對一些軍事技術的地緣政治關切加劇。您過去曾談到不需要擴大台灣晶圓廠的規模，但在晶圓廠選址方面是否有任何新的考慮。

Yes. Happy New Year, everyone. On the possible further tightening up of export control from the U.S. government, I think this is -- they haven't really announced with the specifics about the rules. So everything I say here can only be a speculation. So -- and particularly, I don't want to comment on particular customers. But one thing for sure is our business profile is massive. We are everyone's foundry. And we will deal with each customer fairly and equally. Secondly is we have been and we will follow the law and regulation. So upon the regulation being effective, we will carefully study and evaluate, product by product, our eligibility in the export. And we really have a very sophisticated export control system. As you might know, every product is calculated automatically. Every product is different in terms of their content. So it's really difficult to describe to you generally what is the content percentage is. But I can just tell you that whatever you read on the newspaper is not true, okay? So we are prepared to deal with this new export control regulation.

是的。大家新年快樂。關於美國政府可能進一步加強出口管制，我認為他們還沒有真正宣布具體規則。所以我在這裡說的一切都只能是猜測。所以——特別是，我不想對特定的客戶發表評論。但有一點是肯定的，那就是我們的業務規模龐大。我們是每個人的鑄造廠。我們將公平、平等地對待每一位客戶。第二，我們一直遵守法律法規，並將繼續遵守。因此，一旦該法規生效，我們將仔細研究和評估每個產品的出口資格。我們確實擁有非常複雜的出口管制系統。您可能知道，每種產品都是自動計算的。每種產品的內容都是不同的。因此，通常很難向您描述含量百分比是多少。但我可以告訴你，你在報紙上讀到的一切都不是真的，好嗎？因此，我們已經做好了應對這項新的出口管制法規的準備。

Yes. And thanks for clarifying especially that it's not a node by node, which some of the press was speculating. The second question, I just wanted to ask on the higher Capex, where it came in at the high end of guidance and a higher range of CapEx for 2020. If you could talk maybe the areas where the incremental increase both just from an investment, where that new spend is coming, and maybe what changed on the demand side versus a few months ago to lift the budget. And then the second part, because of this higher base, how you're looking at kind of the base over the, say, the following year because now we have a 2-year higher elevated spend, if, say, some moderation from there.

是的。感謝您特別澄清，它不是逐個節點的，這是一些媒體的猜測。第二個問題，我只是想問更高的資本支出，它處於指導的高端，並且 2020 年的資本支出範圍更高。如果您可以談談增量成長的領域，包括投資、新支出的來源，以及與幾個月前相比需求方面發生了哪些變化以增加預算。然後第二部分，由於這個基數較高，你如何看待接下來一年的基數，因為現在我們的支出增加了兩年，如果說，從那時起有所緩和的話。

Yes, we did increase substantial amount on the Capex. Let me give you some color why we did it that, okay? We expect -- actually, we expect the mobile phone and HPC, these 2 segments, probably grow above 20% this year; and with another 2 segments, 2 platforms, automotive and IoT, probably in mid-teens. So put all together, we had to increase the capacity. We work with the customer to fulfill their demand and so that's a result of why we increase our capacity.

是的，我們確實大幅增加了資本支出。讓我解釋一下我們為什麼這麼做，好嗎？我們預期——實際上，我們預計手機和 HPC 這兩個領域今年的成長率可能會超過 20%；另外還有兩個細分市場、兩個平台，汽車和物聯網，大概在十幾歲左右。總而言之，我們必須增加容量。我們與客戶合作以滿足他們的需求，這就是我們增加產能的結果。

Now your question about our growth?

現在您對我們的成長有疑問嗎？

Yes. The second question was where the spend sits, like 5, 7 versus backend, so where the additional increase...

是的。第二個問題是支出在哪裡，例如 5、7 與後端，那麼額外的增加在哪裡...

Okay. A little bit around 7 that we announced in the last year, and then most of them used in 5 and then prepared for 3. And 10% in the back end, 80% in the leading-edge technology, like the 7, 5, 3 altogether.

好的。大約是去年我們宣布的7個版本，然後大部分都用在了5個版本上，然後為3個版本做準備。 10%在後端，80%在尖端技術上，就像7、5、3三個版本加起來一樣。

Okay. And then the 2 -- maybe the follow-up I had was just the moderation of CapEx for -- if you expect that to maybe moderate from the very high level next year. In the backend, 10% would be $1.5 billion for CapEx. But I'm curious, maybe between backend and mask, if really over a $1 billion backend CapEx.

好的。然後 2 — 也許我的後續行動只是對資本支出進行調整 — 如果您預計明年資本支出可能會從非常高的水平緩和下來。在後端，10% 將是 15 億美元的資本支出。但我很好奇，也許在後端和麵具之間，如果真的超過 10 億美元的後端資本支出。

You're right, I mean, the back end including the mask.

你說得對，我的意思是後端包括面具。

Okay. But I guess out of that, do you think the backend CapEx is over $1 billion investment on that side?

好的。但我想，您是否認為後端資本支出會超過 10 億美元？

No.

不。

Okay. Okay. And then if -- could you talk about the moderation for...

好的。好的。然後如果──你能談談審核嗎？

I think, Randy, the last part of your question is talking about our CapEx this year and last year is at a higher level. Looking out the next several years, where do we think the CapEx will be.

蘭迪，我認為你問題的最後一部分談論的是今年和去年我們的資本支出處於較高水平。展望未來幾年，我們認為資本支出將會是多少。

That would depend on the growth, right? Yes. If we enjoyed a good growth in these 2 years, I think, and if it's a success introduction of our N3, I mean, the CapEx probably will not drop. Yes.

這取決於增長情況，對嗎？是的。我認為，如果我們在這兩年內實現了良好的成長，並且成功推出了 N3，那麼資本支出可能不會下降。是的。

Okay. Thank you. Let's go on to the next question. We'll take it from the floor. Citigroup's Roland Shu, over here.

好的。謝謝。我們繼續下一個問題。我們將從現場取走它。我是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question, I'll just follow up on the Capex. For -- with this $15 billion to $16 billion CapEx spending, so what -- how many of the total capacity increase is going to be this year? And how about last year? With this almost $15 billion CapEx spending, how many percent of the CapEx increased last year?

第一個問題，我只想跟進一下資本支出。對於這 150 億至 160 億美元的資本支出，那麼今年的總產能將增加多少呢？那麼去年的情況如何？這筆近 150 億美元的資本支出，去年的資本支出增加了百分之多少？

Wendell will discuss this question.

溫德爾將討論這個問題。

You're asking about the capacity increase?

您問的是容量增加的狀況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Right. Okay. Of course, the increase mainly come from advanced technologies, right? So for 2020, we're looking at mid-single-digit capacity increase. Last year, a low single-digit number.

正確的。好的。當然，成長主要來自於先進的技術，對嗎？因此，到 2020 年，我們預計產能將實現中等個位數成長。去年，這一數字較低，僅為個位數。

Okay. And then how about the total depreciation is going to be this year?

好的。那麼今年的總折舊額是多少呢？

It will increase by high teens in 2020.

到 2020 年，這一數字將增加 10% 以上。

Okay. And second question is for the gross margin. For your first quarter revenue guidance, U.S. dollar just down slightly. However, apparently in first quarter, we have fewer working days. So it means that your utilization in first quarter definitely is going to be much higher than 4Q. And also for 7-nanometer, last quarter, we said that we -- gross margin has already reached corporate average. And also, I believe, in first quarter, we probably won't have the inventory reevaluation. So all on this, so is your gross margin guidance, 48.5% to 50.5%, a little bit conservative?

好的。第二個問題是關於毛利率。對於第一季的收入預測，美元略有下降。然而，顯然在第一季度，我們的工作日較少。所以這意味著第一季的利用率肯定會比第四季高得多。對於 7 奈米，上個季度我們表示，我們的毛利率已經達到企業平均。而且我相信，在第一季度，我們可能不會進行庫存重新評估。那麼，您的毛利率預期（48.5% 至 50.5%）是否有點保守？

The utilization, we expect it to increase a little bit. And of all the factors that you just mentioned, there's also a potential factor, which is foreign exchange rate impact. There are 6 factors affecting our profitability: the development and ramp of our advanced technology, pricing, cost, utilization, technology mix and foreign exchange rate. So when you put all these together, that is how we came up with the guidance.

我們預計利用率將會略有增加。而且在您剛才提到的所有因素中，還有一個潛在因素，那就是匯率影響。影響我們獲利能力的因素有六：先進技術的開發和提升、定價、成本、利用率、技術組合和外匯匯率。所以當你把所有這些放在一起時，這就是我們得出的指導。

Thank you, Roland. All right. Next question will come from Goldman Sachs, Bruce Lu.

謝謝你，羅蘭。好的。下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

I'll try to get more granularity, color for the 5G penetration rate. Management just mentioned that it's about mid-teens in 2020. Can we have more color in terms of that, whether it's sell-in or sell-through or what kind of geography distribution, what kind of distribution between high-end and low-end for the 5G?

我將嘗試獲得更詳細、更生動的 5G 滲透率資訊。管理層剛剛提到，到 2020 年，這一數字將達到十幾歲左右。我們能否在這方面提供更多的細節，無論是銷售還是銷售量，還是什麼樣的地理分佈，5G 的高端和低端之間的什麼樣的分佈？

Well, I can only say that 5G's penetration is higher than 4G. And you know a few countries, that they are moving faster than the other area, right? And that's all we know. But we are making the judgment, look at the installation of 5G infrastructure, and we look at each country's adoption and we do our own estimate. That's why we come out with mid-teens penetration.

那我只能說5G的普及率比4G高。你知道有些國家比其他地區發展得更快，對嗎？這就是我們所知道的一切。但我們正在做出判斷，看看5G基礎設施的安裝情況，看看每個國家的採用情況，然後做出我們自己的估計。這就是我們得出青少年中期滲透率的原因。

So it's more from the top-down perspective instead of like bottom-up from like each product line. Is that right?

因此，它更多的是從自上而下的視角，而不是像從每個產品線自下而上。是嗎？

We do both and make a judgment.

我們同時進行這兩件事並做出判斷。

So in either both, can you give us some color about why distribution, putting high-end and mid-end...

那麼，無論是哪一種，您能否向我們解釋為什麼分銷要將高端和中端放在一起…

That's company confidential.

這是公司機密。

Bruce, do you have a follow-up?

布魯斯，你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes, of course. Can I double-check that the assumption of mid-teens penetration is based on like there's no change in terms of de minimis rule?

是的當然。我能再確認一下，青少年中期滲透率的假設是否基於最低限度規則沒有改變？

That's a good question. Now the change of de minimis rule is still speculative. So our forecast, we assume the business as usual.

這是個好問題。目前，最低限度規則的改變仍處於推測階段。因此，我們的預測是假設業務一切照常。

I understand it.

我明白。

I think the -- yes, the number we currently forecast does not include de minimis rule tightened and change. But for the -- whatever the export control is coming up, we think that 5G's momentum will continue. If any interruption, it will be very short term. After going through the supply chain changes and share exchanges, I think the momentum will -- were just as strong, yes.

我認為——是的，我們目前預測的數字不包括最低限度規則的收緊和變化。但無論出口管制如何，我們認為 5G 的發展動能將會持續下去。如果有中斷，那也將是短期的。經歷了供應鏈變化和股票交換之後，我認為勢頭將會同樣強勁，是的。

Okay. Your second question?

好的。你的第二個問題？

The second question is regarding to the management. You used to mention that the TSMC becomes more important in terms of geopolitics situations. So does that change your -- cost of your -- does that change your equation in terms of building out the fab, the cost structures? So in the past, we only care about the manufacturing cost as a main cost factor. But given the current situation, do you think that you have to put that into your consideration as well, i.e. you've built -- you know about the saying that building a factory outside of Taiwan is a lot more expensive than doing that in Taiwan. But with all the geographical risk, that building a factory outside of Taiwan becomes right. Do you see the increasing pressure on that? Do you want to -- do we expect any changes on that?

第二個問題是關於管理的。您曾經提到，台積電在地緣政治情勢下變得更加重要。那麼，這是否會改變您的成本？這是否會改變您在建造晶圓廠方面的成本結構？所以過去我們只關心製造成本作為一個主要的成本因素。但考慮到目前的情況，您是否認為您也必須考慮到這一點，即你已經建造了——你知道有這樣的說法，在台灣以外建廠比在台灣建廠要貴得多。但考慮到所有地理風險，在台灣以外建廠是正確的選擇。您是否覺得這方面的壓力越來越大了？您想－我們期望這方面有任何改變嗎？

Yes. The cost in Taiwan is lowest among all regions across the world. We have been studying it continuously. And that decision is made to the best interests of our customers. Yes, the geopolitical is evolving, but we still listen to our customers as the priority. And at this point, our customer, when asked to be manufacturing in a higher-cost region, their answer is, "We cannot be competitive this way." So to increase the -- to maintain the competitiveness of our customer, currently, this is fab layout we're having. In the future, right now it's too early to say. And still our customer prefer we have the lowest cost production sites and doing business with us.

是的。台灣的成本是全球所有地區中最低的。我們一直在不斷地研究它。這項決定是為了我們客戶的最大利益而做出的。是的，地緣政治正在發生變化，但我們仍然將傾聽客戶的意見放在首位。此時，當我們的客戶被要求在成本更高的地區進行生產時，他們的回答是：「這樣我們就無法具有競爭力。」因此，為了提高——保持我們客戶的競爭力，目前，這就是我們正在進行的晶圓廠佈局。未來如何，現在說還太早。但我們的客戶仍然喜歡我們擁有成本最低的生產基地並與我們開展業務。

So what if they are willing to pay for a higher price?

那麼，如果他們願意支付更高的價格呢？

They may be special products, but by and large, it's unlikely.

它們可能是特殊產品，但總的來說，可能性不大。

Thank you. All right. We have -- let's move to the line. We have quite a few callers on the line. So operator, can we take the next call from the line, please?

謝謝。好的。我們已經——讓我們轉到正題。我們接到了不少來電。接線員，我們可以接聽下一個電話嗎？

Sure. Your next question comes from the line of Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

當然。您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first question is on margins. Given that we are looking at very strong demand pickup, could we talk a little bit about any change in the view on longer-term gross margins? We see meaningful improvement in gross margins beyond the 50% range that we have been in the last 4 to 5 years. And also, could you just talk a little bit about the margin dilution impact in second half of 2020 from 5-nanometer? Is it likely to be more modest given there is a very strong 7-nanometer demand also through the course of this year? And I have a follow-up question.

我的第一個問題是關於利潤的。鑑於我們看到需求強勁回升，能否談談對長期毛利率的看法有何變化？我們看到毛利率有了顯著提高，超過了過去四到五年的 50% 左右。另外，您能否談談 5 納米對 2020 年下半年利潤率稀釋的影響？鑑於今年全年 7 奈米的需求非常強勁，其成長速度是否會更加溫和？我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Let me just repeat your question to make sure we got it right. So your first question is asking about sort of with -- given the strong demand pickup, is there any change to TSMC's long-term gross margin target? Why could it not be beyond or above 50%? And then your follow-up or addition to that is looking at this year, could the margin dilution from our 5-nanometer ramp in the second half be more modest given the continued strong demand over 7-nanometer?

好的。謝謝你，Gokul。讓我重複您的問題，以確保我們的理解正確。所以您的第一個問題是－鑑於需求強勁回升，台積電的長期毛利率目標是否有任何變化？為什麼不能超出或高於50％？然後，您的後續問題或補充是，展望今年，鑑於 7 奈米的需求持續強勁，下半年我們 5 奈米產能提升帶來的利潤率稀釋是否會更加溫和？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Right. We continue to use 50% gross margin. We think it's still a very good target. Of all the 6 -- I just mentioned the 6 factors that will affect our profitability. One of them actually relates to the ramp of new nodes. So the ramp of every new node, we will see margin dilutions. This relates to your second question. And indeed, we are seeing a margin dilution in the second half of this year from the N5 ramp. Is it going to be better than before? Yes, but only slightly, okay? And the other factors that I just mentioned include the foreign exchange rate, which is really uncertain for anybody to guess. So at this moment, we believe the 50% gross margin is still a good target for us.

正確的。我們繼續使用50%的毛利率。我們認為這仍然是一個很好的目標。在這 6 個因素中——我剛才提到了 6 個會影響我們獲利能力的因素。其中之一實際上與新節點的增加有關。因此，隨著每個新節點的增加，我們都會看到利潤率的稀釋。這與您的第二個問題相關。事實上，我們看到今年下半年 N5 產量增加導致利潤率下降。會比以前更好嗎？是的，但只是一點點，好嗎？我剛才提到的其他因素包括外匯匯率，這真的非常不確定，誰都無法猜測。因此目前，我們認為 50% 的毛利率對我們來說仍然是一個好的目標。

Okay. Gokul, do you have a second question?

好的。Gokul，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes. Could you talk a little bit about what we are seeing in the N-2, N-3 nodes? Should we anticipate any recovery in the situation in 28-nanometer given overall foundry growth seems to be rebounding? And second part is on 12- and 16-nanometer. Given a lot of the smartphone customers seem to be migrating to 7-nanometer and even 5-nanometer because of the adoption of 5G, will there be any challenge to backfill 12- and 16-nanometer as these customers migrate to more advanced process nodes?

是的。您能否稍微談談我們在 N-2、N-3 節點中看到的情況？鑑於整體代工成長似乎正在反彈，我們是否應該預期 28 奈米的情況會有所復甦？第二部分是關於 12 奈米和 16 奈米。鑑於許多智慧型手機客戶似乎因為 5G 的採用而轉向 7 奈米甚至 5 奈米，當這些客戶遷移到更先進的製程節點時，填補 12 奈米和 16 奈米的空缺是否會面臨挑戰？

Okay. So let me just repeat to make sure we understand again. You're asking about our N-2 and N-3. So first part of your question is, do we see any recovery in the demand for 28-nanometer given the overall strong demand that we see this year? And then the second part of your question is that with a lot of products going from 12- and 16-nanometer very quickly to using our 7 and our 5, will we have challenges or difficulty to backfill 12, 16?

好的。因此，請允許我重複一遍，以確保我們再次理解。您詢問的是我們的 N-2 和 N-3。所以你的問題的第一部分是，鑑於今年我們看到的整體強勁需求，我們是否看到 28 奈米的需求有所復甦？然後你問題的第二部分是，隨著許多產品從 12 奈米和 16 奈米快速轉向使用我們的 7 奈米和 5 奈米，我們在填補 12 奈米、16 奈米方面是否會面臨挑戰或困難？

All right. Let me answer 28-nanometer first. With a strong market growth, 28-nanometer, we did see a little bit better than we expected. However, we have reiterated saying that 28-nanometer's capacity has been overbuilt in this industry. So the utilization is still below our average in 28-nanometer. We expect it will be improved in next 1 to 2 years when we develop a new specialty technology for all our customers to utilize. And we start to see the sign because from the new tape-outs, we can be sure that 1 to 2 years later, that the utilization rate will go back to company's average.

好的。我先回答28奈米。隨著 28 奈米市場的強勁成長，我們確實看到了比預期更好的表現。然而，我們曾一再強調，28奈米產能在該產業已經過剩。因此利用率仍然低於我們 28 奈米的平均值。我們預計，當我們為所有客戶開發新的專業技術時，它將在未來 1 到 2 年內得到改進。我們開始看到這個跡象，因為從新的流片情況來看，我們可以肯定，1到2年後，利用率將回到公司的平均值。

And also 12 and 16.

還有 12 和 16。

12 and 16, we did not see that. Today, it's still very strong demand. And there continue to be a very high utilization rate. It is all because of we developed it. We continue to improve the technology. And so it's being utilized. The first wave of smartphone, HPC and now it's IoT, automotive.

12 和 16，我們沒有看到這一點。如今，需求仍然非常強勁。並且利用率仍然很高。這都是因為我們開發了它。我們不斷改進技術。所以它正在被利用。第一波浪潮是智慧型手機、高效能運算，現在是物聯網、汽車。

Okay. Does that answer your questions, Gokul?

好的。這回答了你的問題嗎，Gokul？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from the line of Bill Lu from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Bill Lu。

A question on 5 nanometers. I remember when 7 was ramping, you gave us numbers on the number of tape-outs. I'm wondering if you can help us with 5-nanometer, either also by giving us number of tape-outs. So maybe just comparing it to 7 and whether it's higher or lower.

關於 5 奈米的一個問題。我記得當 7 進展順利時，您給了我們流片數量的數字。我想知道您是否可以在 5 奈米技術方面為我們提供幫助，或者也可以給我們一些流片數量。因此也許只是將它與 7 進行比較，看看它是更高還是更低。

Okay. Bill, sorry, you broke up a bit at the end. But I think I understood your question. You want to ask us if we can give you some comparison of the number of tape-outs at 5-nanometer versus our 7-nanometer at a similar stage.

好的。比爾，很抱歉，最後你們有點分手了。但我想我明白你的問題了。您想問我們是否可以為您提供類似階段的 5 奈米和 7 奈米流片數量的比較。

Well, the 5-nanometer tape-out is little bit less than 7-nanometer compared at the same stage of the time. However, the most important thing is that the high-volume tape-out is almost equal. And so we expect that our 5-nanometer ramp is a very fast and smooth. And it will contribute about 10% to this year's revenue.

嗯，與同期相比，5 奈米的流片量比 7 奈米少一點。不過最重要的是大批量流片幾乎是持平的。因此，我們預計 5 奈米技術的提升將非常快速且平穩。並將為今年的營收貢獻約10%。

Okay. Do you have...

好的。你有...

So what's the expectations then? And sorry, just to finish up my first question, so if that's the expectation, then that 5-nanometer will be in terms of wafer capacity as big as 7?

那麼期望是什麼？抱歉，我只是想結束我的第一個問題，如果這是預期，那麼 5 奈米的晶圓容量會和 7 奈米一樣大嗎？

So we are building the capacity right now and to meet the customers' demand, very high demand. So that's all I can say.

因此，我們現在正在建立產能，以滿足客戶的需求，非常高的需求。這就是我所能說的。

Great. Second question is a follow-up on Gokul's question on 28 nanometers. As you develop these specialty technologies, can you talk about what kind of applications are expected to use these new specialty technologies?

偉大的。第二個問題是 Gokul 關於 28 奈米問題的後續。在開發這些專業技術時，您能談談預計哪些類型的應用會使用這些新的專業技術嗎？

Do you want to repeat or...

您想重複還是...

Yes, sorry. Okay. Because you're breaking up a little bit, you were asking, Bill, on 28-nanometer, we talk about developing specialty technologies for 28-nanometer. Your question is what type of applications will be used or these specialty technology is targeting?

是的，抱歉。好的。因為你稍微分開了一下，你問比爾，關於 28 奈米，我們討論開發 28 奈米的專用技術。您的問題是這些專業技術將用於哪種類型的應用程式或針對哪種類型？

Well, let me be a bit specific. We are developing the 28-nanometer into 22-nanometer geometry. And ultra-low power is one of the directions we are working on, which can be applied to a lot of IoT devices and also applies to some specialties, such as CMOS image sensor and all others, okay?

好吧，讓我具體一點。我們正在將 28 奈米幾何結構發展為 22 奈米幾何結構。而且超低功耗是我們正在努力的方向之一，它可以應用於許多物聯網設備，也可以應用於一些專業，例如CMOS影像感測器和所有其他設備，好嗎？

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a question on China. China was more than 100% of your Q4 sales growth on a year-on-year basis and sales more than doubled in 2019 from China despite the headwinds from crypto. Can you maybe talk a bit more about the region, what's driving so much growth? And how should we think about China growth specifically in 2020?

我只是想問一個關於中國的問題。中國市場佔貴公司第四季銷售額年增的 100% 以上，儘管面臨加密貨幣的阻力，但 2019 年中國市場的銷售額仍成長了一倍以上。您能否再多談談該地區的情況，是什麼推動瞭如此大的成長？那麼，我們該如何具體看待2020年中國的成長呢？

Okay, Brett. Please allow me to repeat your question. Your question is about our China business. You point out that it was 100% of our fourth quarter growth and grew quite strong in 2019 despite the drop-off in cryptocurrency. So you want us to comment on how we should think about China as a percentage of sales and future growth drivers going forward. Is that correct?

好的，布雷特。請容許我重複一下您的問題。您的問題是關於我們中國業務的。您指出，這是我們第四季成長的 100%，儘管加密貨幣有所下跌，但在 2019 年成長仍然相當強勁。所以你想讓我們評論一下我們應該如何看待中國在銷售額中所佔的百分比以及未來的成長動力。對嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well, China is about 20% of our business and has been stable around that number last year this year. So what's changed is I think that last year, we see the China growth particularly strong. And other regions, such as U.S., probably growth is less. So that is a disjunction for this way. But to continue going on, I think the -- we expect to maintain this level.

嗯，中國約占我們業務的 20%，去年和今年一直穩定在這個數字左右。所以我認為變化的是，去年我們看到中國經濟成長尤為強勁。而其他地區，例如美國，成長可能較少。所以這是這種方式的分離。但為了繼續下去，我認為——我們希望保持這一水平。

Well, let me add some color to it. The same thing, the China major business with TSMC is also still 5G and the AI, the same thing. 2 years ago, probably we have some kind of big increase in the cryptocurrency, but right now it's become normal situation.

好吧，讓我給它添加一些顏色。同樣的事情，台積電在中國的主要業務也仍然是5G和AI，同樣的事情。兩年前，加密貨幣可能出現過某種大幅成長，但現在這已經成為正常情況。

Okay. Brett, do you have a second question?

好的。布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Just to follow up on my question. Looking at 2020, can you maybe just sort of help us with the drivers for growth from China? Do you think it will be mainly 5G smartphone-related? Is there going to be quite a meaningful contribution from other markets like HPC? Any more color would be very helpful.

只是為了跟進我的問題。展望2020年，您能否幫助我們了解中國的成長動力？您認為它主要與 5G 智慧型手機有關嗎？HPC 等其他市場是否也會帶來相當有意義的貢獻？更多顏色將會非常有幫助。

All right. I will be 5G-related, both smartphone that will be increased and also the networking that's in the HPC area. That's 2 major area that China's business that will be increasing in 2020.

好的。我將涉及 5G，包括將會增加的智慧型手機以及 HPC 領域的網路。這是2020年中國業務將成長的兩個主要領域。

Okay. Brett, do you have a second question?

好的。布雷特，你還有第二個問題嗎？

And just the -- second question is really targeted at HPC. Can you maybe talk about how much your 7-nanometer capacity is running HPC at present? I think you were planning to ramp that in the second half of '19. But any more color on the portion of 7-nanometer running HPC would be helpful. And how does this scale as we look at 2020, the use of 7-nanometer for HPC? And I think you mentioned 5-nanometer HPC chips would actually ship in 2020. What would it be used for? Any more help, that would be great.

第二個問題其實針對的是 HPC。您能否談談目前您的 7 奈米產能在多大程度上運行 HPC？我認為您計劃在 2019 年下半年加大這一力度。但有關 7 奈米運行 HPC 部分的更多細節將會很有幫助。那麼，展望 2020 年，7 奈米在 HPC 的應用規模將如何？我認為您提到過 5 奈米 HPC 晶片實際上將於 2020 年出貨。它會有什麼用途？如果還能得到任何幫助那就太好了。

Okay. Brett, let me just repeat your question. The first part is how much of our 7-nanometer capacity is for HPC products, how much was this last year, how do we expect this capacity for HPC to scale in 2020 for 7-nanometer. And then the second part is for 5-nanometer, what types of HPC products or applications are being used on 5-nanometer.

好的。布雷特，讓我重複一下你的問題。第一部分是我們的 7 奈米產能有多少用於 HPC 產品，去年的產能是多少，我們預計 2020 年 7 奈米 HPC 產能將如何擴大。第二部分是針對 5 奈米，5 奈米上使用哪些類型的 HPC 產品或應用。

Well, we do not disclose the capacity breakdown for a specific node. In terms of revenue on the HPC in N7, actually all I want to say is it continues to grow, to increase, and we expect that this momentum will continue in the next few years. For the N5, as we said, it's driven by mobile phone and HPC. Still, the 2 big increases this year.

嗯，我們不會透露特定節點的容量細分。就 N7 的 HPC 收入而言，實際上我想說的是它將繼續成長、增加，我們預計這種勢頭將在未來幾年持續下去。對於N5，正如我們所說，它是由手機和HPC驅動的。儘管如此，今年仍有兩次大幅成長。

Okay. Thank you. Let's come back to the floor for -- open the floor for questions. Next question will come from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

好的。謝謝。讓我們回到現場——開始提問。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

So my first question is about your future technology developments, right? So next year, I'm not sure if you are going to introduce so-called 5-nanometer pro -- process. And can you comment on that a little bit? And if you let the extension of the current 5-nanometer, does that mean possibly to your gross margin improvement? So that is the first question.

所以我的第一個問題是關於您未來的技術發展，對嗎？所以明年，我不確定你們是否會推出所謂的 5 奈米製程。您能對此發表一點評論嗎？而如果讓現在的5納米繼續延伸，是否代表你們的毛利率有可能會提高？這是第一個問題。

We continue to improve the performance of each node. So next year, you're talking about 5 pro?

我們不斷提高每個節點的效能。那麼明年，您說的是 5 pro 嗎？

Yes, 5-nanometer pro or...

是的，5奈米專業版或......

Or whatever. Okay. It will be better than this year's at 5-nanometer, that's for sure, all right? And all the major customers will use it. And so the gross margin improvement, that will be the same as the previous node. It takes about 7 quarter to -- 6 to 8, okay, 6 to 8 quarter to reach the company's average. Okay.

或其他什麼。好的。它會比今年的 5 奈米更好，這是肯定的，對吧？所有主要客戶都會使用它。因此毛利率的增加將與上一個節點相同。大約需要 7 個季度到——6 到 8 個季度，好的，6 到 8 個季度才能達到公司的平均水平。好的。

Okay. So I would assume that 5-nanometer gross margin will continue to improve into next year.

好的。因此我認為 5 奈米毛利率明年將繼續提高。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

Okay. And next is I'm really interested in your 3-nanometer, right? So currently, what is [basically meaning] the cost per transistor. Do you think you can really reduce the cost per transistor level at 3-nanometer? And I'm also curious, given this assumption, do you think HPC or mobile will be a bigger user for your coming 3-nanometer, focusing both CPU or smartphone AP?

好的。接下來我對你的 3 奈米非常感興趣，對嗎？那麼目前，每個電晶體的成本基本上是多少？您認為在 3 奈米等級上真的可以降低每個電晶體的成本嗎？而且我也很好奇，基於這個假設，您是否認為 HPC 或行動將成為即將推出的 3 奈米的更大用戶，重點關注 CPU 或智慧型手機 AP？

Per transistor cost, I believe, will continue to reduce, okay? That's for sure. Now who is going to use it? That's a major question. Again, still high-end smartphone and HPC will be the users, all right? I cannot be more specific to tell you whom, but that's it.

我相信每個電晶體的成本將會繼續降低，好嗎？這是肯定的。現在誰會使用它？這是一個重要問題。再說了，高階智慧型手機和 HPC 仍然是用戶，好嗎？我無法更具體告訴你是誰，但就是這樣。

Can I switch back to some near-term follow-up?

我可以切換回一些近期的後續行動嗎？

Let's stick with two questions first and then go back in the queue, we can come back. Sorry. Thank you. Next question will come from CLSA, Sebastian Hou over here.

讓我們先堅持兩個問題，然後回到隊列中，我們可以回來。對不起。謝謝。下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

So my first question is to follow up on Chairman's comments about that you see the 5G momentum will continue to be strong, even if there's a change on the U.S. exporting rule. Maybe just some near-term disruption because TSMC has evaluated the supply chain change. So can you elaborate more about what the supply chain change you have seen to make you such -- give you such confidence that there will be just a near-term disruption even if there is some change on the exporting rule?

因此，我的第一個問題是跟進主席的評論，即使美國出口規則發生變化，您認為 5G 的發展勢頭仍將保持強勁。這可能只是一些短期中斷，因為台積電已經評估了供應鏈變化。那麼，您能否更詳細地說明您所看到的供應鏈變化，讓您如此有信心，即使出口規則發生一些變化，也只會在短期內造成中斷？

Well, this is a forward-looking analysis. So I think that some of you also did analysis. Basically, the smartphone, you have to look at this smartphone demand per year. And the -- and then look at the 5G penetration per year, who will be the smartphone supplier - it can change, who will be their shares and where the 5G base station been produced, that will change. So all these things really depends on the -- it boils down to really the forward-looking smartphone demand, would that be interrupted. That's the analysis. I think that if any disruption, it will be a shorter term.

嗯，這是一個前瞻性的分析。所以我認為你們中的一些人也做了分析。基本上，對於智慧型手機，你必須考慮每年對智慧型手機的需求。然後看看每年 5G 的普及率，誰將成為智慧型手機供應商——這可能會發生變化，誰將擁有他們的份額，以及 5G 基站在哪裡生產，這些都會發生變化。所以所有這些事情實際上都取決於——它實際上取決於前瞻性的智慧型手機需求是否會被打斷。分析就是這樣。我認為，如果出現任何中斷，持續時間也會較短。

Okay. So my follow-up question on that is smartphone, we understand. So if A brand, they lose share, B, C brands will pick up. But what about the infrastructure? If there is a disruption on the infrastructure because one of the key infrastructure supplier may not have the critical processors, so which means the whole 5G infra build-out maybe slowed down, postponed? And what's the point of having those 5G smartphone with the whole supply chain, the whole 5G thesis been postponed?

好的。所以我的後續問題是智慧型手機，我們了解。因此，如果 A 品牌失去市場份額，B、C 品牌就會崛起。但基礎建設怎麼樣？如果由於某個關鍵基礎設施供應商可能沒有關鍵處理器而導致基礎設施中斷，這是否意味著整個 5G 基礎設施建設可能會放緩或推遲？那麼，推遲 5G 智慧型手機的整個供應鏈、整個 5G 論文的意義何在？

I think industry will find I think there's no businesses with just 1 player for too long, okay? The second and third player will sooner or later will come up and it could be pretty soon. And in our business, always a competitive environment. So yes, we have a #1 enter the market, but the #2 and #3 is not too far away.

我認為業界會發現，我認為沒有任何企業能夠長期只依賴一個參與者，好嗎？第二和第三名球員遲早會出現，而且可能很快。在我們的業務中，始終存在著競爭環境。所以是的，我們已經有一個#1進入市場，但#2和#3也不太遠了。

Okay. My second question is on the guidance that the company get this year that the foundry industry is growing 17%. Semis, excluding memory, it's about 8%. And I think if I look at historically, the -- usually, I think the formula for TSMC's growth is usually the global GDP. And semi is about like 2, 3 percent point above that, foundry a little bit above that and TSMC is a little bit above that. So TSMC get a 5% to 10% of the CAGR. So I think that is a very simple formula. But has the formula changed? So I mean that historically, semiconductor is highly correlated with the global GDP growth to some extent. So if TSMC with the foundry industry growing faster, is it like the foundry/ TSMC becomes the outlier or it's because also that you're implying that the whole economy is growing faster?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於公司今年獲得的指導，即代工產業成長 17%。半導體，不含內存，約 8%。我認為，如果從歷史角度來看，通常情況下，我認為台積電的成長公式通常是全球 GDP。半導體產業大約高出這個數字 2 到 3 個百分點，代工產業略高一點，台積電也略高一點。因此台積電獲得了5%至10%的複合年增長率。所以我認為這是一個非常簡單的公式。但公式改變了嗎？所以我的意思是，從歷史上看，半導體在某種程度上與全球 GDP 成長高度相關。因此，如果台積電和代工產業成長更快，那麼代工/台積電是否成為異常值，還是因為你暗示整個經濟都在成長更快？

Now at this time, we have a higher growth rate, right, for foundry and for TSMC. It all because it's driven by 5G and AI's application. So whether we can increase our forecast. For example, TSMC always say 5% to 10% CAGR is that our goal. We certainly hope that we can exceed that. But this year, it's still too early to say. But we stay what we said. The foundry industry will be 17% and TSMC will be better than that.

現在，我們的代工和台積電的成長率都比較高。這一切都是因為5G和AI的應用所驅動。那麼我們是否可以增加我們的預測。例如，台積電總是說5%到10%的複合年增長率是我們的目標。我們當然希望能夠超越這一點。但今年，現在說還太早。但我們堅持我們所說的。晶圓代工產業佔17%，台積電的表現會更好。

Sebastian, let me add to this. This year, if the formula does change a bit, we put it in the Korean -- captive Korean player foundry -- captive into the foundry, okay, which is they do that and constantly. So this time, we put the Korean player's captive into the foundry business. So that's why you see the growth quite faster.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我補充一點。今年，如果公式確實有所改變，我們會將其放入韓國 - 俘獲的韓國玩家鑄造廠 - 俘獲到鑄造廠，好的，他們就是這樣做的並且不斷如此。所以這次我們把韓國玩家的俘虜放進了代工業務。這就是為什麼你會看到成長速度相當快。

Okay. So -- but if we also look at -- I think the company also made a comment that you're seeing your 5-year CAGR to be higher, at the high end of the 5% to 10%. So it's not just 1 year, it's just a flash in the pan. So I think if you look at the longer time frame, which means I think there will be more -- I think the correlation with the global GDP, I think that makes more sense, more representative. So does that also mean that like semis and tech innovation is going to drive the global economy grow faster in the next couple of years? Or is it just because global GDP still grow as the growth at 2%, 3% but semis, foundries, TSMC become the outlier, that gap is getting bigger?

好的。所以——但如果我們也看一下——我認為該公司也評論說，你們看到 5 年複合年增長率更高，在 5% 到 10% 的高端。所以這不只是一年，這只是曇花一現。因此，我認為，如果從更長的時間範圍來看，這意味著我認為會有更多——我認為與全球 GDP 的相關性更有意義，更具代表性。那麼這是否也意味著半導體和技術創新將在未來幾年推動全球經濟更快成長？還是只是因為全球GDP仍以2%、3%的速度成長，但半導體、晶圓代工、台積電成為異常值，導致差距越來越大？

Oh, we don't want to say it's outlier. We continue to forecast global GDP still in a normal situation, provided the trade tension between the 2 big countries did not deteriorate. But for semiconductor, I want to say that the content of the semiconductor in our life continue to increase, provide -- see that -- you can see the big example in the smartphone. You can see the big example in the automotive. And you can see that IoT is a big increase also. So now it's changing our world. And that all because of semiconductor content. It's not because of what GDP suddenly become grow faster. And it's not because of semiconductors is an outlier. It will continue to be this way.

哦，我們不想說它是異常值。只要兩個大國之間的貿易緊張局勢不惡化，我們繼續預測全球GDP仍將處於正常狀態。但對於半導體，我想說半導體在我們生活中的含量不斷增加，提供——看看——你可以在智慧型手機中看到這個大例子。您可以在汽車領域看到典型的例子。您還可以看到物聯網也實現了大幅成長。現在它正在改變我們的世界。這一切都歸功於半導體內容。這並不是因為什麼，GDP突然成長得更快。這並不是因為半導體是一個異常值。這種情況將會持續下去。

Yes. And remember, last year, as Wendell said, the -- it's the semi industry ex memory was a year of decline. So obviously, there's a base effect in play as well for 2020.

是的。請記住，正如溫德爾所說，去年是半導體產業（除內存外）衰退的一年。因此顯然，2020 年也存在基數效應。

Yes, sure. I'm talking about 5 years.

是的，當然。我說的是5年。

Sure. Yes. Okay. Thank you. Let's move back to the line, please, and we'll take the next question from the line, please, operator?

當然。是的。好的。謝謝。請讓我們回到線路上，然後我們將回答線路上的下一個問題，接線員？

Your question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

您的問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I have one clarification. When you were referring to 5-nanometer, does that include 6? And if it doesn't, what is your view of availability of 6-nanometer by year-end '20?

我要澄清一點。當您提到 5 奈米時，它包括 6 奈米嗎？如果沒有的話，您認為 20 年底 6 奈米技術能否問世？

Do I have to repeat the question? You say that 5-nanometer is including 6 or not. Now 6 is 7 nanometer's family. So we look at the 7, 7+, 6 as a 1 family. 5 is another big node.

我需要重複這個問題嗎？你說5奈米是不是包括6奈米。現在6是7奈米的家族。因此我們將 7、7+、6 視為 1 個系列。5是另一個大節點。

Okay. And you're still on schedule to have 6 available by end of this year, correct?

好的。而您仍計劃在今年底前推出 6 款產品，對嗎？

Volume production at the end of this year. Right now, it's ready for our customers' tape-out.

今年底實現量產。現在，它已準備好供我們的客戶流片。

Sure. Okay. And then in terms of just the we're talking about the growth, more than 20%. At the same time, one of the leading microprocessor manufacturer based in North America has talked about increased outsourcing. And I just want to get your view. When you look into the longer term, would there be a structural change in semiconductor manufacturing, where TSMC would actually be able to grab a higher market share because they will be more outsourcing specifically from a key company based in North America?

當然。好的。就我們所談論的成長而言，成長率超過 20%。與此同時，北美一家領先的微處理器製造商也談到了增加外包的計畫。我只是想了解一下你的看法。長遠來看，半導體製造業是否會發生結構性變化？台積電是否能夠搶佔更高的市場份額，因為他們將更多地從北美一家關鍵公司進行外包？

All right. Let me repeat your question, Mehdi. I think you're asking us to comment on the potential for an increased outsourcing from a major microprocessor or CPU vendor. Long term, could this be a structural change and the potential for longer term outsourcing?

好的。讓我重複你的問題，梅赫迪。我認為您要求我們對主要微處理器或 CPU 供應商增加外包的可能性進行評論。長遠來看，這會是結構性變化，還是長期外包的潛力？

Yes.

是的。

We certainly welcome that outsourcing continue to grow. And for TSMC, all I can say is that we develop the technology to meet our customers' requirement. And we are confident that we are the best technology leader and we have excellent manufacturing. And of course, as a result, we expect that we gain some market share out of it. But that is for the future for TSMC's growth. And I cannot be more specific than that.

我們當然歡迎外包繼續成長。對於台積電，我只能說我們開發技術是為了滿足客戶的需求。我們有信心，我們是最好的技術領導者，並且擁有卓越的製造能力。當然，我們希望由此獲得一些市場份額。但那是為了台積電未來的發展。我無法說得更具體了。

Okay. Thank you. Let's move on. We have a follow-up question from the line from JPMorgan's Gokul Hariharan.

好的。謝謝。我們繼續吧。我們收到了摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 提出的後續問題。

So a quick question on the high end of the 5% to 10% growth. Could you talk a little bit about why only high end of 5% to 10% when the CapEx to be seems to be 40% to 50% from the last kind of $10 billion to $12 billion -- $10 billion to $11 billion CapEx change over the last 5 years? Any reasons why we are a bit more cautious? Do we feel that the 5G cycle after a couple of years could start to kind of decelerate? Especially given this year, we are already starting off with a very strong 20% kind of growth. So just wanted to think about the puts and takes in terms of the high end of 5% to 10%, then why not stronger than that growth, given the big jump in CapEx and indication that CapEx could stay around these levels even going into the 3-nanometer era.

所以我想問一下關於 5% 到 10% 成長率的高端問題。您能否稍微談談為什麼過去 5 年資本支出從 100 億美元到 120 億美元變化到 100 億美元到 110 億美元，而資本支出似乎卻只有 40% 到 50%，而最高漲幅只有 5% 到 10%？我們為什麼要更加謹慎？我們是否覺得幾年後 5G 週期可能會開始減速？尤其是今年，我們已經實現了 20% 的強勁成長。因此，只是想考慮一下 5% 到 10% 高端的投入和產出，那麼為什麼不比這個增長更強勁呢，考慮到資本支出的大幅增長，並且有跡象表明，即使進入 3 納米時代，資本支出也可能保持在這些水平左右。

Okay. Gokul, let me try to summarize your question. Basically, Gokul was asking why our long-term growth target is only at the high end of 5% to 10% when our CapEx has increased 40% to 50% versus the $10 billion to $12 billion in the past. He is asking or wondering, is this because we think -- take a more cautious view that 5G cycle may be strong this year and next year but may slow down after that? And so why do we still say at the high end of 5% to 10%?

好的。Gokul，讓我試著總結一下你的問題。基本上，Gokul 想問的是，為什麼我們的長期成長目標只是 5% 到 10% 的高端，而我們的資本支出已經成長了 40% 到 50%，而過去是 100 億美元到 120 億美元。他在問或想知道，這是因為我們認為——採取更謹慎的觀點，認為 5G 週期今年和明年可能會強勁，但之後可能會放緩？那麼為什麼我們仍然說是 5% 到 10% 的高端呢？

Last year, before we increased the CapEx, we were looking at somewhere in the middle of that 5% to 10%. But afterwards, when we see the ramp in 5G deployment, we increased the CapEx. And now we're looking at high end of the 5% to 10% range. So that is the difference. And also let me explain this from a capital intensity point of view. Last year, while we increased the CapEx, the capital intensity was over 40%. This year, we think it will be lower than 40%. And from next year on, although it's still pretty early, we think it will be somewhere between 30% or 35%, which is dissimilar to the old norm that we used to say before.

去年，在我們增加資本支出之前，我們考慮將資本支出控制在 5% 到 10% 之間。但後來，當我們看到 5G 部署的成長時，我們增加了資本支出。現在我們關注的是 5% 到 10% 範圍的高端。這就是差別。我也從資本密集度的角度來解釋這一點。去年，雖然我們增加了資本支出，但資本密集度卻超過了40%。今年，我們認為這一比例將低於40%。從明年開始，雖然現在還為時過早，但我們認為成長率將在 30% 到 35% 之間，這與我們以前所說的舊標準不同。

Gokul, do you have a second question?

Gokul，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes. Just one more broader question for Dr. Liu. At a Board level, Dr. Liu, could you talk a little bit about how the Board thinks about TSMC's positioning as a foundry for everyone, everybody's foundry, given the broader geopolitical changes that are happening? I don't want to go into each episode in terms of like the change in the de minimis rule, et cetera. But thinking 4 to 5 years out, how does -- or what are the steps that the Board is considering to kind of -- to ensure that TSMC can remain everybody's foundry even in a more challenging kind of geopolitical environment and a lot more policy kind of blips compared to, say, the last 5 to 7 years?

是的。我再問劉博士一個比較廣泛的問題。劉博士，從董事會層面來說，考慮到正在發生的更廣泛的地緣政治變化，您能否談談董事會如何看待台積電作為人人享有的代工廠、人人享有的代工廠的定位？我不想對每一集都進行深入討論，例如最低限度規則的變化等等。但展望 4 到 5 年後，董事會將如何考慮採取哪些措施，以確保台積電能夠繼續成為每個人的代工廠，即使在更具挑戰性的地緣政治環境中，以及與過去 5 到 7 年相比更多的政策波動中也是如此？

Okay. Let me try to summarize your question. Again, I think he's asking -- Gokul's asking for Mark to please share your thoughts on, from a Board level, TSMC's positioning as everyone's foundry. Of course, we're facing a lot of different geopolitical changes and challenges. Gokul doesn't need us to comment on each one. But generally, how are we thinking about 5 to 7 years out, how TSMC can position ourselves and how we can remain to be everyone's foundry?

好的。讓我試著總結一下你的問題。再說一次，我認為他在問——Gokul 要求 Mark 從董事會層面分享您對台積電作為所有人的代工廠的定位的看法。當然，我們面臨著許多不同的地緣政治變化和挑戰。Gokul 不需要我們對每一個都進行評論。但整體而言，我們如何考慮未來 5 到 7 年，台積電如何定位自己，以及如何繼續成為每個人的代工廠？

Yes. The -- first of all, currently, we discussed the strategy with the Board. And the Board fully agree with our current strategy, okay? And of course, this strategy contains several necessary component. First of all, we develop our technology ourselves. All the technology, IP and know-how and technology all developed in Taiwan here. Secondly is, another necessary element is our technology has to be leaders. When you're technology leaders, people will have to come to you. And that's how we maintain to be everyone's foundry. There are exceptions, of course, because of their domestic trade policy that I cannot overcome. But basically, that so far, this strategy should be able to play on.

是的。首先，目前，我們與董事會討論了該策略。董事會完全同意我們目前的策略，好嗎？當然，這個策略包含幾個必要的組成部分。首先，我們自己開發技術。所有技術、智慧財產權、專有技術和工藝都是在台灣開發的。第二，另一個必要因素就是我們的技術要領先。當你成為技術領導者時，人們就會來找你。這就是我們保持成為每個人的鑄造廠的方式。當然也有例外，因為他們的國內貿易政策是我無法克服的。但基本上，到目前為止，這項策略應該能夠繼續發揮作用。

Okay. Does that answer your question, Gokul?

好的。這回答了你的問題嗎，Gokul？

Yes.

是的。

All right. Thank you. Let's come back to the floor and see if there's any follow-up questions from anyone? Morgan Stanley, Charlie?

好的。謝謝。讓我們回到現場，看看是否有人有後續問題？摩根士丹利，查理？

So first of all, for first quarter, you mentioned that utilization rates are higher. But in terms of U.S. dollars revenue go down slightly. So what is the ASP or product mix change here?

首先，對於第一季度，您提到利用率較高。但以美元計算，收入略為下降。那麼這裡的平均銷售價格 (ASP) 或產品組合變化是什麼？

So Charlie is asking that we said first quarter, the utilization rate will slightly increase. But our U.S. -- our guidance shows a slight decrease in the U.S. -- the revenue in terms of U.S. dollars. So why is that? Does that imply an ASP change?

所以查理問我們說第一季利用率會稍微上升。但我們的預期顯示，美國的收入（以美元計算）略有下降。那為什麼呢？這是否意味著 ASP 會改變？

Last year, fourth quarter or even third quarter last year, part of the wafer revenue come from wafers prepared in the first quarter -- first half of 2019, when the utilization was pretty low. And we're pretty much digesting all of those already.

去年，第四季甚至第三季度，部分晶圓收入來自於2019年第一季至上半年準備的晶圓，當時的使用率相當低。我們基本上已經消化了所有這些。

Okay. So it looks like the year is open, right? But do you see any kind of any next data points, for example, any segment or any customers cutting forecast or orders recently? Can you comment on that?

好的。看起來今年已經開放了，對嗎？但是您是否看到任何類型的下一個數據點，例如任何細分市場或任何客戶最近削減預測或訂單？您能對此發表評論嗎？

No, we did not see that.

不，我們沒有看到。

And lastly, it's a little bit subtle, right? CapEx, I think 3 months ago -- I think the guidance for this year, CapEx is USD 14 billion to USD 15 billion. But now it's like slight USD 1 billion higher. So what is that additional CapEx for? Is that mainly for 7-nanometer or 5-nanometer?

最後，這有點微妙，對吧？資本支出，我想是 3 個月前——我認為今年的指導性資本支出是 140 億美元至 150 億美元。但現在略高出 10 億美元。那麼額外的資本支出用於什麼呢？這主要針對 7 奈米還是 5 奈米？

Well, other than the advanced technology, we also mentioned earlier, we also increased the CapEx this year for specialty technology as well as advanced packaging. So those are the areas that we are focusing on.

嗯，除了先進技術之外，我們之前也提到過，今年我們還增加了用於專業技術和先進封裝的資本支出。這些就是我們關注的領域。

And lastly, if I may, I guess a market share question. We appreciate that the company provide your assumption for industry growth, right? So I guess, first of all, we want to clarify when you add Korea captive foundry in the comparison, is that an apple-to-apple comparison, meaning do you include that into last year's revenue base?

最後，如果可以的話，我想問一個市場份額問題。我們很高興公司提供了您對行業成長的假設，對嗎？所以我想，首先，我們想澄清一下，當你在比較中添加韓國專屬代工廠時，這是否是同類比較，這意味著你是否將其納入去年的收入基礎中？

I think we did, right? Yes, we did.

我想我們做到了，對吧？是的，我們做到了。

Okay. So include then, apple-to-apple comparison is up 17%.

好的。因此，包括蘋果與蘋果的比較上升了 17%。

Up 17%.

上漲17%。

Okay. And then (inaudible) to China competitors' market share, I think that's a...

好的。然後（聽不清楚）對於中國競爭對手的市場份額，我認為這是一個...

I think that probably needs to correct it. I don't think we include the foundry growth in last year, the Samsung captive supply. So the growth is 17% is particularly high.

我認為可能需要糾正它。我認為我們沒有包括去年的代工成長和三星的專屬供應。因此17%的成長率是特別高的。

Okay. So what is kind of apple-to-apple comparison then?

好的。那麼，蘋果與蘋果的比較是什麼樣的呢？

I think 6 points. So it will be [17%] (corrected by company after the call) if you apple-to-apple comparison.

我認為是6分。因此，如果進行同類比較，它將是 [17%]（通話後公司已更正）。

Okay. So based on that kind of [17%] (corrected by company after the call) industry growth, right, I think lots of investors are asking whether you're sort of losing market share in China because China want to push the localization, right? Some chatters are talking about SMIC taking more orders from you guys at 14-nanometer. Can you also comment a little bit on this front?

好的。因此，基於這種 [17%]（電話會議後公司進行了修正）行業增長，對吧，我認為很多投資者都在問，你們是否因為中國想要推動本地化而在中國失去了市場份額，對吧？有人談論中芯國際在 14 奈米製程上從你們那裡獲得更多訂單。您能就此發表一些評論嗎？

Usually, we don't specifically answer this kind of very sensitive questions specifically on one competitor. But let me tell you that what the newspaper say is not true.

通常，我們不會針對某位競爭對手特別回答這種非常敏感的問題。但我告訴你，報紙上說的並不屬實。

All right. thank you. Charlie, also let me just clarify, last time, we did not say that $14 billion to $15 billion for 2020 CapEx. We said it will probably stay at a similar level as 2019. But we do not specifically say that dollar range, all right? Just to clarify. All right. Let's go back to the line. Sorry, we have a follow-up from SIG, Mehdi.

好的。謝謝。查理，另外讓我澄清一下，上次我們並沒有說 2020 年的資本支出為 140 億美元至 150 億美元。我們表示它可能會保持與 2019 年類似的水平。但我們不要具體說美元範圍，好嗎？只是為了澄清一下。好的。讓我們回到正題。抱歉，我們有 SIG Mehdi 的後續問題。

Wanted to go back to your commentary about the 5G phone. And how should I think about opportunities if I were to think about the sub-6 versus millimeter wave? And specifically, do you think that this year, opportunities with mobile, you talked about a 20% -- more than 20% growth. Is that all going to be sub-6? Or is it going to be a mix of the 2 technologies?

想回到你對 5G 手機的評論。如果我要考慮 6 歲以下與毫米波之間的區別，我該如何看待機會？具體來說，您是否認為今年行動領域的機會將實現 20% 至 20% 以上的成長？所有這些都會低於 6 嗎？或者說它將是兩種技術的混合？

Okay. The question is clear enough. If the 5G grows, is that because of sub-6 or the millimeter wave? And my answer is both, okay? That's the 5G's phone and the base station is for sub-6 and the millimeter wave.

好的。問題已經夠清楚了。如果 5G 發展的話，那是因為 sub-6 還是毫米波？我的答案是兩者都有，好嗎？那是 5G 的手機，基地台是用於 sub-6 和毫米波的。

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

你還有第二個問題嗎，Mehdi？

Yes. Actually, if I were to have a follow-up, do you think you will actually be building a millimeter wave phone or for millimeter wave, it's just going to be limited to base station?

是的。實際上，如果我要進行後續提問，您是否認為您實際上會製造毫米波手機，或者對於毫米波，它是否僅限於基地台？

Okay. Actually, the phone is much easier to build with millimeter wave plus sub-6. The base station probably will have a much higher number in sub-6 rather than millimeter wave.

好的。實際上，使用毫米波加上 Sub-6，製造手機要容易得多。基地台中 sub-6 的數量可能比毫米波的數量高得多。

All right. Let's come back to the floor. We have a follow-up from Crédit Suisse, Randy Abrams.

好的。讓我們回到正題。我們請瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams) 跟進。

You talked about the good investment in the backend. Last year, I think you said $2.5 billion was the revenue run rate in 2018. If you can maybe give a view the size of the business now and maybe what type of growth you're expecting for this year.

您談到了後端的良好投資。去年，我記得您說過 2018 年的營收運作率為 25 億美元。您能否介紹一下目前的業務規模以及您預計今年會出現什麼樣的成長？

Yes. The revenue size of backend was $2.8 billion in 2019. We're expecting double-digit growth for this year, mid-teens.

是的。2019年後端營收規模為28億美元。我們預計今年的成長率將達到兩位數，即十五六位數。

Mid-teens, right. Okay. And if I could ask on the 2 other areas that don't get as much attention, automotive and IoT. So automotive was depressed last year. But I think you're talking about a pretty big pickup to grow teens. Could you talk to the areas, like if it's just cyclical rebound or if there are certain types of products or components coming back for the automotive, where you're gaining content share? And for the automotive -- sorry, for the IOT, it was very strong growth. It's a big category. So if you could maybe center on if there's a few particular pieces within IoT driving the momentum for that category.

十幾歲吧。好的。我想問另外兩個沒有太多關注的領域，就是汽車和物聯網。因此去年汽車業不景氣。但我認為你談論的是青少年成長的一個相當大的進步。您能否談談這些領域，例如這是否只是周期性反彈，或者是否有某些類型的汽車產品或零件重新回歸，您在哪些方面獲得了內容份額？對於汽車——抱歉，對於物聯網，這是一個非常強勁的成長。這是一個很大的類別。因此，您是否可以集中討論物聯網中是否有一些特定部分推動了該類別的發展動能。

Well, actually the growth of this year, most come from the content increase rather than the unit increase. Because we -- I just mentioned that it will be mid-teens, right, mid-teens increase. Certainly, it's not mid-teens unit. You don't expect so many car being sold. And so it's a content -- the semiconductor content increase is more important than the unit.

嗯，實際上今年的成長大部分來自於內容的成長而不是單位的成長。因為我們——我剛才提到，它將以十幾歲的中期，對，十幾歲的中期增長。當然，這不是十幾歲的單位。你不會想到會賣這麼多的車。因此，半導體含量的增加比單位含量的增加更重要。

And then Randy is also asking about for IoT, are there specific areas or segments that's driving the growth in IoT?

然後 Randy 也詢問了物聯網，是否有特定的領域或部分推動了物聯網的成長？

Wearable is very popular now everywhere. And according to our Chairman, content also increased.

穿戴式裝置現在在各地都很流行。據我們的主席說，內容也有所增加。

Next, we have a follow-up from Citigroup, Roland Shu.

接下來，我們請花旗集團的 Roland Shu 進行跟進。

Yes. Last time, CEO guide this, you expected the 7-nanometer revenue will continue to grow in 2020. So do you still hold to the view?

是的。上次，執行長指導時，您預計 7 奈米收入將在 2020 年繼續成長。那麼你仍然堅持這個觀點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So how much growth it will be this year? So last year, we have 27%. Is this able to above the highest level of 20-nanometer, around 34%?

那麼今年的成長幅度會是多少呢？去年，我們的佔比是 27%。這是否能夠超過20奈米的最高水平，約34％？

Close.

關閉。

Okay. And also for 7-nanometer, do you see any competitor with the technology breakthrough and likely to impact or taking your market share in the near term?

好的。對於 7 奈米，您是否認為有任何競爭對手擁有技術突破並可能在短期內影響或奪取您的市場份額？

Can you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Yes. Do you see any competitors with 7-nanometer technology breakthrough and will likely to threat you or take your market share going forward.

是的。您是否看到任何競爭對手在 7 奈米技術上取得突破，並可能對您構成威脅或搶佔您的市場份額？

We will continue to hold a very high market share. That's all we can say. And I don't comment on my competitor.

我們將繼續保持很高的市場佔有率。我們只能說這些。我不會評論我的競爭對手。

Okay. Yes. My second question is you said that you continue expanding your customer and the product portfolio. And so you have new customers and the products from cryptocurrency in 2018. And the last year, you have this new CPU foundry outsourcing as your new customer in technology. So how about this year? Do you see any new customers or new applications to contribute to your growth?

好的。是的。我的第二個問題是，您說過您會繼續擴大客戶和產品組合。因此，2018 年您將擁有來自加密貨幣的新客戶和產品。去年，你們有了這家新的 CPU 代工外包公司作為你們技術方面的新客戶。那麼今年怎麼樣呢？您是否認為有任何新客戶或新應用程式可以促進您的成長？

If this year's growth, counting on my customer is what we engaged last year already. So as I said, we continue to expand our product portfolio, and we continue to increase the number of our customers.

如果今年有所成長，那麼依靠我的客戶就是我們去年已經參與的。正如我所說，我們將繼續擴大我們的產品組合，並將繼續增加我們的客戶數量。

So I think the content increase along with 5G penetration is the major phenomenon, including the leading-edge as well as the mature nodes. And it's just a wide spread of customers or existing customers.

所以我認為隨著5G普及，內容的增加是一個主要現象，包括前沿節點和成熟節點。這只是客戶或現有客戶的廣泛分佈。

Okay. We have a follow-up here from CLSA, Sebastian Hou.

好的。我們這裡有來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou 的後續報導。

My first follow-up is we heard that the 7-nanometer demand is very strong at TSMC. And most of the customers are on allocation mode right now. So with the step-up of CapEx for this year, I believe some of that also devote into 7-nanometer for this year. Do you still expect this similar tightness that your customer may experience on 7-nanometer by the end of this year?

我的第一個後續問題是，我們聽說台積電對 7 奈米的需求非常強勁。目前大多數客戶都處於分配模式。因此，隨著今年資本支出的增加，我相信其中一部分資金也將用於今年的 7 奈米。您是否仍預期您的客戶在今年年底前在 7 奈米製程上會遭遇類似的緊張局面？

We do have very high demand from 7-nanometer. And we work very hard to meet customers' demand. Last year, we announced we put $1.5 billion more to increase the 7 nanometers capacity. We work hard to increase the capacity.

我們對 7 奈米的需求確實很高。我們非常努力地滿足客戶的需求。去年，我們宣布投入 15 億美元來增加 7 奈米產能。我們努力提高產能。

Yes. With 5-nanometer ramp up in the second half of this year, the tightness of 7-nanometer we hopefully can be soothed a bit for the customers.

是的。隨著今年下半年 5 奈米製程的量產，我們希望能為客戶稍微緩解 7 奈米製程的緊張局面。

Okay. And is there -- are there any process nodes that TSMC is seeing not growing this year?

好的。台積電今年是否有任何製程節點沒有成長？

28-nanometer.

28奈米。

But 28 is already pretty low last year. But you're still seeing that not growing?

但去年 28 已經相當低了。但你還是發現它沒有成長嗎？

You say not growing, right, not growing.

你說不增長，對，不增長。

All right. So even for 16, 12, this platform, TSMC also expects that to go up. Okay. So that's why you say that the newspaper is wrong.

好的。因此，即使是16、12這個平台，台積電也預期其產量會上升。好的。所以你說報紙是錯的。

I don't want to be so specific.

我不想說得這麼具體。

Okay. Well, that's pretty clear.

好的。嗯，這很清楚。

All right. In the interest of time, we'll see if there's any last questions from anybody. If not, then this concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now. The transcript will be available within 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Thank you for joining us today. We hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, Happy New Year, and have a great day.

好的。為了節省時間，我們會看看是否有人提出最後一個問題。如果沒有的話，我們的問答環節就到此結束。在今天的會議結束之前，請注意，會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。會議記錄將於 24 小時內發布，可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見，新年快樂，祝你有美好的一天。