台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone.

（外語）大家下午好。

Welcome to TSMC's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎來到台積電 2020 年第三季度財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 以現場音頻網絡直播的方式主持我們的收益電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載收益發布材料。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2020.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德先生將總結我們在 2020 年第三季度的運營，然後是我們對 2020 年第四季度的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei and Mr. Huang will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，台積電 CEO C.C.魏先生和黃先生將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then we will open the line for Q&A.

然後我們會開通Q&A專線。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

請參閱我們的新聞稿中出現的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想把電話轉給台積電的首席財務官 Wendell Huang 先生，了解運營總結和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Third quarter revenue increased 14.7% sequentially in NT dollars or 16.9% in U.S. dollars, as we saw strong demand for our advanced technologies and special technology solutions driven by 5G smartphones, HPC and IoT-related applications.

第三季度收入按新台幣計算環比增長 14.7%，按美元計算增長 16.9%，這是因為我們看到 5G 智能手機、HPC 和物聯網相關應用對我們先進技術和特殊技術解決方案的強勁需求。

Gross margin increased 0.4 percentage points sequentially to 53.4%, mainly thanks to a much higher level of utilization, partially offset by the margin dilution from 5-nanometer ramp and unfavorable exchange rate.

毛利率環比增長 0.4 個百分點至 53.4%，這主要歸功於更高的利用率，部分被 5 納米爬坡帶來的利潤稀釋和不利的匯率所抵消。

The operating expenses increased by TWD 7.4 billion, mainly attributable to a higher level of development activities for N4 and N3 technologies and onetime expenses to facilitate our expansion in Hsinchu.

營業費用增加新台幣 74 億元，主要是由於 N4 和 N3 技術的開發活動水平更高，以及為促進我們在新竹的擴張而進行的一次性費用。

Therefore, operating margin slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points sequentially to 42.1%.

因此，營業利潤率環比微跌 0.1 個百分點至 42.1%。

Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD 5.3, and ROE was 31.3%.

總體而言，我們第三季度的每股收益為新台幣 5.3 元，淨資產收益率為 31.3%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。

5-nanometer process technology contributed 8% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while 7-nanometer and 16-nanometer contributed 35% and 18%, respectively.

5 納米工藝技術在第三季度貢獻了 8% 的晶圓收入，而 7 納米和 16 納米分別貢獻了 35% 和 18%。

Advanced technologies, defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 61% of wafer revenue.

定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 61%。

In terms of revenue contribution by platform, smartphone increased 12% quarter-over-quarter, to account for 46% of our third quarter revenue.

就平台收入貢獻而言，智能手機環比增長 12%，占我們第三季度收入的 46%。

HPC increased 25%, to account for 37%.

HPC 增長了 25%，佔 37%。

IoT increased 24%, to account for 9%.

物聯網增長了 24%，佔 9%。

Automotive decreased 23%, to account for 2%.

汽車下降了 23%，佔 2%。

Digital consumer electronics decreased 24%, to account for 3%.

數字消費電子產品下降了 24%，佔比為 3%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 742 billion.

我們在第三季度末擁有 7,420 億新台幣的現金和有價證券。

On the liabilities side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 27 billion mainly due to the decrease of short-term loans and the decrease of current portion of bonds payable.

負債方面，流動負債減少新台幣270億元，主要是短期借款減少及應付債券流動部分減少所致。

Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 146 billion mainly as we raised TWD 145 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.

長期有息債務增加新台幣 1,460 億元，主要是因為我們在本季度籌集了新台幣 1,450 億元的公司債券。

On financial ratios.

關於財務比率。

Accounts receivable turnover days decreased 4 days to 40 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 58 days primarily due to N5 ramp.

應收賬款周轉天數減少 4 天至 40 天，而庫存天數增加 3 天至 58 天，這主要是由於 N5 的增加。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx.

關於現金流和資本支出。

During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 190 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 99 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for fourth quarter '19 cash dividend.

在第三季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1900 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出上花費了 990 億新台幣，並為 19 年第四季度的現金股息分配了 650 億新台幣。

Short-term loan decreased by TWD 17 billion, while bonds payable increased by TWD 136 billion mainly due to the bond issuances.

短期貸款減少新台幣170億元，而應付債券增加新台幣1,360億元，主要是由於債券發行。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 137 billion to TWD 604 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季度末我們的現金餘額增加了 1,370 億新台幣至 6,040 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our third quarter capital expenditures totaled $3.4 billion.

以美元計算，我們第三季度的資本支出總額為 34 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our fourth quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向我們的第四季度指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 12.4 billion and USD 12.7 billion, representing a 3.4% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據當前的業務前景，我們預計第四季度收入將在 124 億美元至 127 億美元之間，中值環比增長 3.4%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 28.75, gross margin is expected to be between 51.5% and 53.5%, operating margin between 40.5% and 42.5%.

基於 1 美元兌新台幣 28.75 元的匯率假設，預計毛利率在 51.5% 和 53.5% 之間，營業利潤率在 40.5% 和 42.5% 之間。

Now I will hand over to -- the call to C.C. for his key messages.

現在我將移交給 - 給 C.C. 的電話。為他的關鍵信息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

我們希望每個人在這段時間都保持安全和健康。

Now let me start with our near-term demand and inventory.

現在讓我從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。

We concluded our third quarter with revenue of TWD 356.4 billion or USD 12.1 billion, which was above our guidance, mainly due to better demand across all our platforms than our forecast 3 months ago.

我們以 3564 億新台幣或 121 億美元的收入結束了第三季度，高於我們的指引，這主要是由於我們所有平台的需求都好於我們 3 個月前的預測。

Moving into fourth quarter 2020, we expect our sequential growth to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer technology driven by 5G smartphone launches and HPC-related applications.

進入 2020 年第四季度，我們預計我們的連續增長將受到 5G 智能手機發布和 HPC 相關應用推動的對我們行業領先的 5 納米技術的強勁需求的支持。

On the inventory front, we forecast our fabless customers' overall inventory to exit the year above the seasonal level as the supply chain continues to make efforts to ensure supply chain security and actively prepare for the new 5G smartphone launches.

在庫存方面，由於供應鏈繼續努力確保供應鏈安全並積極準備新的 5G 智能手機發布，我們預計無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存將超過季節性水平。

Looking ahead, we expect our customers' overall inventory to remain above the historical seasonal level for a longer period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure supply chain security amidst the lingering uncertainties.

展望未來，鑑於行業在不確定性揮之不去的情況下繼續需要確保供應鏈安全，我們預計客戶的整體庫存將在較長時間內保持在歷史季節性水平之上。

For the full year of 2020, although COVID-19 continue to bring some level of impact to the global economies, we also observe that COVID-19 is accelerating digital transformation, while 5G and HPC-related applications continue to drive semiconductor content enrichment.

2020年全年，雖然COVID-19繼續給全球經濟帶來一定程度的影響，但我們也觀察到COVID-19正在加速數字化轉型，而5G和HPC相關應用繼續推動半導體內容豐富。

We now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase mid-single-digit percentage, while foundry industry growth is expected to be close to 20% year-over-year.

我們現在預測整個半導體市場（不包括內存）將以中等個位數百分比增長，而晶圓代工行業的同比增長率預計將接近 20%。

For TSMC, our technology leadership position enable us to capture the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC.

對於台積電而言，我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠抓住 5G 和 HPC 的行業大趨勢。

We expect to outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by about 30% in 2020 in U.S. dollar terms.

我們預計到 2020 年以美元計算將超過代工收入增長並增長約 30%。

Next, let me talk about our N5 ramp-up and N4 progress.

接下來說一下我們N5的ramp-up和N4的進展。

TSMC's N5 is foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA.

TSMC 的 N5 是晶圓代工行業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的 PPA。

N5 is already in volume production with good yield, while we continue to improve the productivity and performance of the EUV tools to further enhance our leadership in EUV technology.

N5 已經量產，良率良好，同時我們繼續提高 EUV 工具的生產力和性能，以進一步增強我們在 EUV 技術方面的領先地位。

Due to the robust demand from 5G smartphones and HPC applications, we'll reaffirm N5 will contribute about 8% of our wafer revenue in 2020, and we expect even higher percentage in 2021.

由於 5G 智能手機和 HPC 應用的強勁需求，我們重申 N5 將在 2020 年貢獻我們約 8% 的晶圓收入，我們預計 2021 年的比例會更高。

N4.

N4。

While leveraging the strong foundation of N5 to further extend our 5-nanometer family, N4 is a straightforward migration from N5 with compatible design rules while providing further performance, power and density enhancement for the next-wave 5-nanometer products.

在利用 N5 的強大基礎進一步擴展我們的 5 納米系列的同時，N4 是 N5 的直接遷移，具有兼容的設計規則，同時為下一波 5 納米產品提供進一步的性能、功率和密度增強。

N4 risk production is targeted for 4Q 2021 and volume production in 2022.

N4 風險生產的目標是 2021 年第四季度和 2022 年的量產。

With our continuous technology enhancement, we expect our 5-nanometer family to be a large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

隨著我們不斷的技術提升，我們希望我們的 5 納米家族成為台積電的一個大而持久的節點。

Now I will talk about our N3 status.

現在我將談談我們的N3身份。

N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 with up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% performance gain and up to 30% power reduction, as compared with N5.

與 N5 相比，N3 將是我們 N5 的又一個完整節點跨越，邏輯密度增益高達 70%，性能增益高達 15%，功耗降低高達 30%。

We have chosen FinFET transistor structure for our N3 technology to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers.

我們為我們的 N3 技術選擇了 FinFET 晶體管結構，以便為我們的客戶提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress.

我們的 N3 技術開發進展順利。

Hence, we will offer complete platform support for both mobile and HPC applications.

因此，我們將為移動和 HPC 應用程序提供完整的平台支持。

Risk production is scheduled in 2021, and volume production is targeted in second half of 2022.

風險生產計劃於 2021 年進行，量產目標為 2022 年下半年。

Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced.

我們的 3 納米技術在推出時將成為 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的代工技術。

Thus, we are confident our 3 nanometer will be a large -- another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心我們的 3 納米將成為台積電的另一個大而持久的節點。

Finally, I will talk about TSMC 3DFabric.

最後說一下TSMC 3DFabric。

TSMC has developed an industry-leading and comprehensive wafer-level 3D IC technology road map to enhance system-level performance.

台積電制定了業界領先且全面的晶圓級 3D IC 技術路線圖，以提升系統級性能。

Our differentiated chiplets and heterogeneous integration technologies drive better, power-efficient and smaller-form-factor benefits for our customers while shortening their time to market.

我們差異化的小芯片和異構集成技術為我們的客戶帶來更好、更節能和更小外形的優勢，同時縮短了他們的上市時間。

This technology is including chip-stacking solutions such as SoIC as well as advanced packaging solution such as InFO and CoWoS.

該技術包括 SoIC 等芯片堆疊解決方案以及 InFO 和 CoWoS 等先進封裝解決方案。

We are consolidating this offering under one umbrella and naming it TSMC 3DFabric.

我們正在將此產品整合到一個傘下，並將其命名為 TSMC 3DFabric。

As industry continue to seek innovations to enhance system-level performance, 3DFabric will complement our advanced technology to unleash our customers' innovation.

隨著行業不斷尋求創新以提高系統級性能，3DFabric 將補充我們的先進技術以釋放我們客戶的創新能力。

We expect revenue from our back-end services, which including both advanced packaging and testing, to grow at a rate slightly above the corporate average in the next few years.

我們預計我們的後端服務（包括先進封裝和測試）的收入在未來幾年將以略高於公司平均水平的速度增長。

Now let me turn the microphone over to Wendell.

現在讓我把話筒交給溫德爾。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

Let me start by making some comments on our profitability.

首先讓我對我們的盈利能力發表一些評論。

Our third quarter gross margin exceeded the high end of our guidance, to reach 53.4%, mainly as we saw a much higher-than-expected overall capacity utilization rate in the third quarter.

我們第三季度的毛利率超過我們指引的上限，達到 53.4%，主要是因為我們看到第三季度的整體產能利用率遠高於預期。

That helped to offset the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 5-nanometer technology.

這有助於抵消我們 5 納米技術最初提升帶來的利潤率稀釋。

We have just guided fourth quarter gross margin to decline by 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 52.5% at the midpoint primarily due to the margin dilution from the continued steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer and a less-favorable foreign exchange rate in the fourth quarter.

我們剛剛指導第四季度毛利率連續下降 0.9 個百分點至中點的 52.5%，這主要是由於我們 5 納米的持續急劇增長和第四季度不太有利的外匯匯率導致利潤率下降四分之一。

Looking to 2021, we expect the strong ramp of N5 to contribute a higher percentage of revenue, as compared to 2020.

展望 2021 年，我們預計與 2020 年相比，N5 的強勁增長將貢獻更高的收入百分比。

The yield rate of N5 continues to improve.

N5的良品率持續提升。

Similar to prior nodes, we forecast N5's gross margin to take 7 or 8 quarters to reach the corporate average level.

與之前節點類似，我們預計N5的毛利率需要7、8個季度才能達到公司平均水平。

Thus, N5 is expected to dilute our gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points for the full year of 2021.

因此，預計 N5 將稀釋我們 2021 年全年的毛利率約 2 至 3 個百分點。

As a reminder, the following 6 factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, cost reduction, capacity utilization, technology mix as well as foreign exchange rate.

提醒一下，以下6個因素決定了台積電的盈利能力：領先的技術開發和提升、定價、成本降低、產能利用率、技術組合以及匯率。

Taking all these factors into consideration, we believe a long-term gross margin of above 50% is achievable.

綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們認為 50%以上的長期毛利率是可以實現的。

Now let me talk about our capital budget for this year.

現在讓我談談我們今年的資本預算。

Our business outlook is supported by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced technologies and specialty technology solutions, driven by the industry megatrends of 5G and HPC-related applications.

在 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的行業大趨勢的推動下，對我們行業領先的先進技術和專業技術解決方案的強勁需求支持了我們的業務前景。

In order to meet this demand and support our customers' capacity needs, we now expect our full year 2020 CapEx to be about USD 17 billion.

為了滿足這一需求並支持我們客戶的容量需求，我們現在預計 2020 年全年資本支出約為 170 億美元。

Now I will make some comments on our corporate bond issuances and capital structure.

下面我就公司債券發行和資本結構做一些評論。

The multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications are expected to continue to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年繼續推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

Given the macroeconomic uncertainties this year, a current low interest rate environment and ability to diversify our funding sources, TSMC's Board of Directors has so far approved the issuance of TWD 120 billion in NT dollar-denominated corporate bonds and $4 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds.

鑑於今年宏觀經濟的不確定性，目前的低利率環境以及我們資金來源多元化的能力，台積電董事會迄今已批准發行新台幣1,200億元公司債券和40億美元美元公司債券。公司債券。

Year-to-date, we have issued TWD 89.5 billion in NT dollar-denominated and $4 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds with favorable pricing terms.

今年迄今，我們已發行新台幣 895 億元新台幣和 40 億元美元計價的公司債券，定價條件優惠。

With our solid financial performance, strong balance sheet and cash position and capacity to take on debt, we are able to aggressively invest in our future to enhance our technologies and capabilities.

憑藉我們穩健的財務業績、強勁的資產負債表和現金狀況以及承擔債務的能力，我們能夠積極投資於我們的未來，以增強我們的技術和能力。

This enables us to continue to outgrow the semiconductor industry through the cycles.

這使我們能夠在周期中繼續超越半導體行業。

With our disciplined capital management, we remain committed to sustainable cash dividends on both annual and quarterly basis.

憑藉我們嚴格的資本管理，我們仍然致力於每年和每季度的可持續現金股息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的聲明到此結束。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

（操作員說明）問題將按照收到問題的順序進行處理。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

So now let's begin the Q&A session.

那麼現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?

接線員，我們可以接聽線路上的第一個來電者嗎？

The first caller on the line is Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

第一個來電者是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Congratulations on great quarter.

祝賀偉大的季度。

My first question is on CapEx and capital intensity.

我的第一個問題是關於資本支出和資本密集度。

It looks like, this year, we will come in around 36%, 37% capital intensity.

看起來，今年，我們將達到 36% 左右，37% 的資本密集度。

Could we talk a little bit about how we should think about capital intensity and absolute CapEx as well going -- looking forward, at least on a directional basis?

我們能否談談我們應該如何考慮資本密集度和絕對資本支出——展望未來，至少在方向性的基礎上？

It seems like the investment cycle is still going to be very much intact going into next year, also looking at some of the financial options in terms of bond rates and et cetera, that TSMC has undertaken.

進入明年，投資週期似乎仍將完好無損，同時也在考慮台積電已採取的債券利率等方面的一些財務選擇。

That is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is on N5.

我的第二個問題是關於 N5。

I think in previous calls we have indicated that, while N5 will be a long and large node, it may not have the same number of tapeouts as N7 has had, which is probably historical high.

我認為在之前的電話會議中我們已經指出，雖然 N5 將是一個又長又大的節點，但它的流片數量可能不會像 N7 那樣多，這可能是歷史最高水平。

Is our view changing on N5?

我們對 N5 的看法正在改變嗎？

Could we talk a little bit about will N5 exceed N7 in terms of wafer capacity as well as wafer revenue in the next 2 years or so?

我們能否談談在未來 2 年左右的時間裡，N5 在晶圓產能和晶圓收入方面是否會超過 N7？

Okay, Gokul, thank you very much.

好的，Gokul，非常感謝你。

We'll take your questions one by one.

我們會一一回答您的問題。

Please allow me to summarize your question.

請允許我總結一下您的問題。

Your first question relates to our CapEx and capital intensity.

您的第一個問題與我們的資本支出和資本密集度有關。

You point out that -- with the guidance that our capital intensity this year, in your estimation, is probably around 36% to 37%.

你指出 - 根據你的估計，我們今年的資本密集度可能在 36% 到 37% 左右。

So your question is how should we think about CapEx and capital intensity in the next few years.

所以你的問題是我們應該如何考慮未來幾年的資本支出和資本密集度。

If we cannot give a quantitative number directionally, how do we see CapEx and capital intensity?

如果我們不能給出一個方向性的量化數字，我們如何看待資本支出和資本密集度？

And how does this tie in with our recent things like -- such as bond issuances and fundraising?

這與我們最近的事情有什麼關係，比如債券發行和籌款？

How does that factor in?

這是如何影響的？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Maybe CFO Wendell can address.

也許首席財務官溫德爾可以解決。

Okay, yes.

好的，是的。

Gokul, our capital intensity, as you are right, this year will be lower than 40%.

Gokul，我們的資本密集度，正如你所說的那樣，今年將低於 40%。

In the next several years, longer term, we expect the capital intensity to be around mid-30 percentage point.

在未來幾年，從更長期來看，我們預計資本密集度將在 30 個百分點左右。

However, having said that, there may be years where capital intensity is higher if we see the strong demand for our technologies or capacity and we decide to invest.

然而，話雖如此，如果我們看到對我們的技術或產能的強勁需求並決定投資，那麼資本密集度可能會更高。

Okay.

好的。

And then your second question, Gokul, please allow me to summarize again, is regarding to our 5-nanometer that we have said that it's a long and large node but that we -- the number of tapeouts of N5 versus N7 may be lower.

然後你的第二個問題，Gokul，請允許我再次總結一下，關於我們的 5 納米，我們已經說過它是一個長而大的節點，但是我們 - N5 的流片數量與 N7 相比可能更少。

So your question is can N5 exceed N7.

所以你的問題是N5能不能超過N7。

Do we believe 5-nanometer can be a bigger node than 7 in terms of revenue and capacity?

我們是否認為 5 納米在收入和容量方面可以成為比 7 更大的節點？

Well, let me say that we don't comment on how many tapeouts, so far, but we continue to see strong tapeout activities at N5 from both HPC and smartphone applications.

好吧，我要說的是，到目前為止，我們不評論有多少流片，但我們繼續看到來自 HPC 和智能手機應用程序的 N5 上的流片活動。

And revenue for this year, we just mentioned, is 8% of the wafer revenue, and next year, it will be even higher than -- close to -- or 20%, something like that.

我們剛剛提到，今年的收入佔晶圓收入的 8%，明年，它甚至會高於——接近——或 20%，類似的水平。

The exact number, we are still not able to comment, but I can assure you that our 5-nanometer family will be another big and long-lasting node for TSMC.

確切的數字，我們還不能發表評論，但我可以向你保證，我們的5納米家族將是台積電又一個大而持久的節點。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Next one, we have Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

下一位是瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Okay, yes.

好的，是的。

My first question, I wanted to ask on Wendell.

我的第一個問題，我想問溫德爾。

You raised the gross margin.

你提高了毛利率。

Originally it was 50%.

原來是50%。

Could you discuss now where you're saying it could be above 50%, the factors driving that change?

您現在可以討論一下您所說的可能超過 50% 的地方，以及推動這種變化的因素嗎？

And could you clarify on the 2- to 3-point impact on 5-nanometer?

你能澄清一下對 5 納米的 2 到 3 點影響嗎？

I think you already have that impact, so does that imply for next year pretty similar to the type of gross margin you're running now or potentially even better?

我認為你已經產生了這種影響，那麼這是否意味著明年的毛利率與你現在運行的毛利率類型非常相似，甚至可能更好？

Okay, Randy, I'll summarize your question.

好的，蘭迪，我會總結你的問題。

Your first question is in regards to, I believe, our gross margin and long-term gross margin.

你的第一個問題是關於我們的毛利率和長期毛利率。

I think you're asking that we raised our target, but I think we -- as Wendell said, 50% is achievable for us, but you're also asking as part of that the dilution from 5-nanometer.

我想你是在問我們提高了目標，但我認為我們——正如溫德爾所說，50% 對我們來說是可以實現的，但你也要求從 5 納米開始稀釋。

How will that impact our gross margin next year?

這將如何影響我們明年的毛利率？

And where should we, I guess, be thinking about gross margin for 2021?

我想，我們應該在哪裡考慮 2021 年的毛利率？

Okay.

好的。

Randy, maybe I -- let me answer this like this.

蘭迪，也許我——讓我這樣回答。

We have a very high gross margins in the third quarter, and we believe we will continue have a pretty high margin in the fourth quarter.

我們第三季度的毛利率非常高，我們相信第四季度我們將繼續保持相當高的毛利率。

And main reason is that we are enjoying a very high utilization across almost all the nodes at this moment, but the high -- very high utilization may not continue forever, so our long-term growth target or long-term growth goal for our gross margin continues to be above 50%.

主要原因是我們目前幾乎所有節點都在享受非常高的利用率，但高 - 非常高的利用率可能不會永遠持續下去，所以我們的長期增長目標或我們總收入的長期增長目標利潤率繼續保持在 50% 以上。

In terms of dilution from N5, we see the dilution of N5 for next year to be around 2 to 3 percentage point, similar to previous nodes.

就 N5 的稀釋度而言，我們認為明年 N5 的稀釋度約為 2 至 3 個百分點，與之前的節點相似。

And remember that the N5 will account for a much bigger percentage of our revenue next year.

請記住，明年 N5 將占我們收入的更大比例。

So as we ramp up quickly, the dilution will continue to exist.

因此，隨著我們迅速增加，稀釋將繼續存在。

However, we are still expecting that it will reach the corporate margin by -- in 7 to 8 quarters.

但是，我們仍然預計它將在 7 到 8 個季度內達到公司利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

No, great.

不，太好了。

I misunderstood.

我誤解了。

I thought I heard the word "above" for 50%.

我以為我聽到了 50% 的“以上”這個詞。

Second question, on the recent U.S. restriction on SMIC.

第二個問題，關於近期美國對中芯國際的限制。

I'm curious if you're seeing any additional diversification or increase for business.

我很好奇您是否看到任何額外的多元化或業務增長。

And given they're more on the mature nodes, how you're positioned, if you are seeing those, to take on business on the mature nodes.

鑑於它們更多地位於成熟節點上，如果您看到這些，您將如何定位以在成熟節點上開展業務。

Okay, Randy, let me just summarize your second question.

好的，蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。

Your second question is regards to the recent restrictions on SMIC.

你的第二個問題是關於最近對中芯國際的限制。

And Randy is wondering whether we are seeing any types of diversification or inquiries from customers in regards to business and especially at the mature nodes.

蘭迪想知道我們是否看到任何類型的多元化或客戶對業務的詢問，尤其是在成熟節點。

Well, Randy, let me answer the question.

好吧，蘭迪，讓我回答這個問題。

Actually we are still evaluating the impact to the semiconductor industry and the -- due to the ban on SMIC, but let me say that our capacity planning and all our CapEx continue based on the long-term demand profile.

實際上，我們仍在評估對半導體行業的影響以及——由於對中芯國際的禁令，但我要說的是，我們的產能規劃和所有資本支出都將根據長期需求狀況繼續進行。

That is underpinned by the industry megatrends such as 5G-related and HPC application, all right?

這是由 5G 相關和 HPC 應用等行業大趨勢支撐的，好嗎？

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

Or maybe just one quick.

或者也許只是一個快速的。

But for the mature nodes, which are running tight across the industry, just if it's so that there's an incremental surge, how well could you handle incremental business from this type of piece if it were to come through?

但是對於成熟的節點來說，整個行業都跑得很緊，如果是增量激增的話，這種塊的增量業務如果通過了，你能做多好？

So Randy is asking, if we were to see a surge in demand at the mature nodes, how ready -- or do we have capacity to take on or handle this type of surge demand?

所以蘭迪問，如果我們看到成熟節點的需求激增，準備得如何——或者我們是否有能力承擔或處理這種激增的需求？

Well, we continue to work with our customer dynamically and we try our best to meet their demand.

好吧，我們繼續與我們的客戶動態合作，我們盡力滿足他們的需求。

That's all I can say for today.

這就是我今天能說的。

Yes.

是的。

The next one is Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一位是來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is I think, besides the higher-than-usual inventory, which may be a new norm because of this supply chain year of disruption, how -- I wonder.

我的第一個問題是，我認為，除了高於平常的庫存，這可能是一個新的常態，因為今年供應鏈中斷，我想知道。

I'm curious about how does TSMC assess customers' overbooking or pulling behavior and the magnitude.

很好奇台積電如何評估客戶的超額預訂或拉貨行為以及幅度。

In particular, based on the recent smartphone OEMs' aggressive procurement about -- assuming Huawei is going to be there next year, how did you assess that, kind of the potential overbuild inventory risk that may potentially lead to a destocking correction sometime next year?

特別是，基於最近智能手機原始設備製造商的積極採購——假設華為明年將在那裡，你如何評估這種潛在的過度庫存風險，這可能會導致明年某個時候的去庫存修正？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, Sebastian, let me repeat or try to summarize your question.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安，讓我重複或嘗試總結您的問題。

Your question is basically related to the inventory.

你的問題基本上與庫存有關。

And you want to ask how does TSMC assess the risk that there is overbooking in light of the restrictions on Huawei.

你想問台積電如何評估華為受限超售的風險？

And therefore, what type of levels or magnitude of inventory overbuild is there?

因此，存在何種類型的庫存過度建造水平或程度？

And does this create the risk of inventory correction sometime next year?

這是否會在明年某個時候產生庫存修正的風險？

Well, let me share with you our view on these inventory-related issues.

那麼，讓我與您分享我們對這些庫存相關問題的看法。

First, I want to say that, due to the pandemic, actually the digital transformation has been accelerated, and that create a demand on 5G and HPC-related products.

首先，我想說的是，因為疫情，實際上數字化轉型加速了，這就產生了對5G和HPC相關產品的需求。

And so for the long term -- longer-term basis, we do expect our customers' overall inventory to remain above the seasonal level for a longer period of time, majority partly because of they have some concern on industry's supply chain security and due to the uncertainties.

因此，從長期來看，我們確實預計我們客戶的整體庫存將在較長時間內保持在季節性水平之上，這主要是因為他們對行業供應鏈安全有一些擔憂，並且由於不確定性。

And so that what -- the inventory, high-level inventory, will sustain, continue for a longer period of time.

因此，庫存，高水平庫存將維持，持續更長的時間。

That, we can say that.

那，我們可以這麼說。

Okay, Sebastian, do you have a second...

好吧，塞巴斯蒂安，你有時間……

Yes, all right.

嗯，好。

Sorry.

對不起。

Yes, okay, all right.

是的，好的，好的。

Anyway, but that isn't actually what I'm looking for, but anyway.

無論如何，但這實際上不是我要找的，但無論如何。

And my second question is on the HPC business.

我的第二個問題是關於 HPC 業務的。

Apparently, I think the -- C.C., you mentioned in the prepared remark that we'll see a lot of the growth this quarter and also continued strength next quarter and driven by the accelerating digital transformation.

顯然，我認為 - C.C.，你在準備好的評論中提到，在加速數字化轉型的推動下，我們將在本季度看到大量增長，並在下個季度繼續走強。

You just said it at -- led by the pandemic and work-from-home demand like to stay for longer.

你剛剛說過——在大流行病和在家工作的需求的帶動下，人們喜歡待更長的時間。

And also to continue to -- share gain from TSMC against IDM.

並且還要繼續 - 分享台積電對 IDM 的收益。

And when do you expect your HPC revenue exposure to cross over with smartphone revenue percentage?

您預計您的 HPC 收入比例何時會與智能手機收入百分比交叉？

Possible to see that by end of next year or 2022?

有可能在明年年底或 2022 年看到嗎？

Okay, Sebastian, let me just summarize your question, which is regards to our HPC platform business.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安，讓我總結一下你的問題，這是關於我們的 HPC 平台業務的。

You point out that there is the trends of the accelerating digital transformation and the work from home and also market share gains versus IDM.

您指出數字化轉型加速和在家工作的趨勢以及與 IDM 相比的市場份額增長。

So you want to know when do we see our HPC platform revenue crossing over with the smartphone or others, to become the primary.

所以你想知道我們什麼時候會看到我們的 HPC 平台收入與智能手機或其他平台交叉，成為主要收入。

Okay, let me answer the question.

好吧，讓我回答問題。

We do see HPC platforms growth rate is higher in among our 4 platform, which is smartphone, HPC, automotive and IoT.

我們確實看到 HPC 平台的增長率在我們的 4 個平台中更高，即智能手機、HPC、汽車和物聯網。

And in the next few years, we continue to expect what we forecast, that HPCs growth will be higher than the corporate level.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們繼續期待我們的預測，HPC 的增長將高於企業水平。

When it will cross over, I don't make any comment right now.

什麼時候會過去，我現在不做任何評論。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Next one, we have Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一個，我們有來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

So I want to ask about the 5G penetration rate.

所以想問一下5G普及率。

So what is the latest forecast for the total smartphone growth and 5G penetration rate in 2020?

那麼對於2020年智能手機總出貨量和5G普及率的最新預測是怎樣的呢？

And maybe a little bit of color on 2021 as well.

也許 2021 年也會有一點顏色。

So we also see that some of the telco is slowing down their 5G base installation.

所以我們也看到一些電信公司正在放慢他們的 5G 基站安裝速度。

What kind of impact we see at this moment?

我們現在看到什麼樣的影響？

Okay, Bruce, your question is regards to 5G and smartphones.

好的，Bruce，你的問題是關於 5G 和智能手機的。

You want to know what is the smartphone growth and 5G penetration rate for 2020 as well as 2021 and then in light of the telecoms potentially slowing down the deployment, correct?

您想知道 2020 年和 2021 年智能手機的增長和 5G 普及率是多少，然後考慮到電信可能會減緩部署，對嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay.

好的。

All right, let me answer the question.

好吧，讓我來回答問題。

We continue to expect the faster penetration of 5G smartphone, as compared to 4G.

與 4G 相比，我們繼續預計 5G 智能手機的滲透率會更快。

And for this year, we still forecast a high-teens penetration rate, and next year, even higher, much higher.

對於今年，我們仍然預測十幾歲的高滲透率，明年甚至更高，更高。

Let me say that.

讓我這麼說。

And that's all we have today.

這就是我們今天所擁有的。

And any impact from the telcos business as well?

電信業務也有什麼影響嗎？

I think all countries and all regions are preparing to build up the infrastructure right now.

我認為現在所有國家和地區都在準備建設基礎設施。

And I believe, next year, even not 100% completed, but all the region or the countries will have a lot of 5G phone being introduced, and that create a higher-percentage penetration rate.

而且我相信，明年，即使不是100%完成，但所有地區或國家都會推出大量5G手機，並創造更高百分比的普及率。

Okay, I understand.

好，我懂了。

My next question is that I'm a little bit surprised that China revenue contribution only increased slightly from 22% to 23% in third quarter.

我的下一個問題是，我對第三季度中國收入貢獻僅從 22% 略微增加到 23% 感到有點驚訝。

So which region will we see the strongest growth in fourth quarter?

那麼我們將在第四季度看到哪個地區增長最強勁？

Okay, Bruce, your question is regards to our revenue by geography, and you want to know, for the fourth quarter, which region will contribute the most growth, in the fourth quarter.

好的，布魯斯，你的問題是關於我們按地域劃分的收入，你想知道第四季度哪個地區的增長貢獻最大。

Okay, Bruce, we're not prepared to comment on geographic allocation among revenues in the fourth quarter.

好的，布魯斯，我們不准備評論第四季度收入的地域分配。

I can share with you that we expect the platforms that will grow in the fourth quarter will be smartphone and automotive, and the other 2 will likely to be down.

我可以與您分享，我們預計第四季度增長的平台將是智能手機和汽車，而其他兩個平台可能會下降。

We have Sunny Lin from UBS.

我們有來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

So my first question is on 5-nanometer demand.

所以我的第一個問題是關於 5 納米的需求。

So in the next 2 to 3 years, what do you think revenues for it could be by smartphone, HPC, et cetera?

那麼在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，您認為智能手機、HPC 等方面的收入會是多少？

And do you think the mix could be a bit different from 7-nanometer?

你認為混合可能與 7 納米有點不同嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

Can you repeat your question, Sunny?

Sunny，你能重複你的問題嗎？

You broke up a little bit.

你分手了一點。

Sure, sure, no problem.

當然可以，沒問題。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

So I wonder, for 5-nanometer demand in the next 2 to 3 years, what does the management think of the revenue mix?

所以我想知道，對於未來 2 到 3 年的 5 納米需求，管理層如何看待收入組合？

Could be by smartphone, HPC, et cetera.

可以通過智能手機、HPC 等。

And will the product mix be a bit different from 7-nanometer?

產品組合是否會與 7 納米有點不同？

Okay, all right.

好的，好的。

Let me summarize.

讓我總結一下。

Thank you, Sunny.

謝謝你，桑尼。

Your question is regards to 5-nanometer.

你的問題是關於 5 納米的。

And then when we look out over the next 3 years, how do we see the demand of 5-nanometer, the mix, changing in terms of smartphone, HPC, different platforms?

然後，當我們展望未來 3 年時，我們如何看待 5 納米的需求，以及智能手機、HPC 和不同平台方面的混合變化？

And then how does this compare to 7-nanometer?

那麼這與 7 納米相比如何？

Correct?

正確的？

That's right.

那就對了。

We don't break it down or disclose the platform mix of certain nodes, but we can share with you, as C.C. just mentioned, in the next several years, we expect HPC to be the largest contributor of our growth.

我們不會對其進行分解或透露某些節點的平台組合，但我們可以與您分享，作為 C.C.剛才提到，在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計 HPC 將成為我們增長的最大貢獻者。

So that should give you some idea.

所以這應該給你一些想法。

And these guys use advanced technologies.

這些傢伙使用先進的技術。

Sure.

當然。

Got it.

知道了。

And my second question is that, for this year, a key part of your growth in smartphones is driven by higher silicon content for 5G and your share gains, so I wonder if you could walk us through how your average silicon content in smartphone may trend into 2021 and 2022.

我的第二個問題是，今年智能手機增長的一個關鍵部分是由 5G 的更高矽含量和您的份額增長推動的，所以我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下智能手機中平均矽含量的趨勢進入 2021 年和 2022 年。

Okay.

好的。

So Sunny, your second question is regards to the silicon content in 5G phones.

Sunny，你的第二個問題是關於 5G 手機中的矽含量。

Of -- the silicon content increase in 5G phone, along with share gain, is contributing to our smartphone growth this year, so she wants to know what is the silicon content outlook for 2021 and '22.

的 - 5G 手機中矽含量的增加以及份額的增加正在推動我們今年智能手機的增長，因此她想知道 2021 年和 22 年的矽含量前景如何。

This is pretty hard for me to answer because I did -- I cannot release all the information I got from my customer, but let me say that on the average the 5G phone have about 30% to 40% more silicon content, as compared with 4G.

這對我來說很難回答，因為我做到了——我無法公佈我從客戶那裡得到的所有信息，但我可以說，與 5G 手機相比，5G 手機的矽含量平均高出 30% 到 40%。 4G。

Did that give you some kind of idea?

這給了你一些想法嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So I have a very quick follow-up.

所以我有一個非常快速的跟進。

Wonder if you could give us some color regarding your expectation of your market share for smartphone in the next 2, 3 years.

想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對未來 2、3 年智能手機市場份額的預期。

So Sunny is asking whether we can give some comment on the market share, our market share, in 5G phones the next 2 to 3 years.

所以 Sunny 問我們是否可以對未來 2 到 3 年 5G 手機的市場份額，我們的市場份額發表一些評論。

No.

不。

It's not very appropriate for me to give some kind of estimate right now, but let me say that, as long as we have a technology leadership position, we are very confident that we are going to have a high market share.

我現在給出某種估計不太合適，但我可以說，只要我們擁有技術領先地位，我們就非常有信心我們將擁有很高的市場份額。

Okay?

好的？

Sure, got it.

當然，明白了。

Next, we have Roland Shu from Citigroup.

接下來，我們有來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

My first question is can you update on the status of your license applications for shipments to Huawei.

我的第一個問題是你能更新一下你向華為發貨的許可證申請的狀態嗎？

When do we expect to receive approval from U.S. government?

我們預計什麼時候會獲得美國政府的批准？

And also, does your 4Q revenue forecast include any wafer shipment to Huawei?

另外，您的第四季度收入預測是否包括對華為的晶圓出貨量？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, Roland.

好的，羅蘭。

So your question is regards to -- he wants an update of our license application status regarding Huawei.

所以你的問題是關於——他想更新我們關於華為的許可申請狀態。

And he also wants to know, does our fourth quarter guidance include any shipments to Huawei?

他還想知道，我們第四季度的指導是否包括對華為的任何出貨量？

Roland, we are complying fully with regulations.

羅蘭，我們完全遵守規定。

And so -- and we also notice that there is a report saying that TSMC got the license.

所以——我們也注意到有報導稱台積電獲得了許可。

We are not going to comment on this unfounded speculation and we also don't want to comment on our status right now.

我們不會對這種毫無根據的猜測發表評論，我們現在也不想評論我們的狀態。

For the 4Q shipment to Huawei, no.

對於 4Q 發貨給華為，沒有。

The ban, the regulation already say that up to September 17...

禁令，條例已經說到 9 月 17 日...

15...

15...

September 15, okay, same.

9月15日，好吧，一樣。

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

Okay, my second question is, how is the pricing pressure across all technology nodes, so far?

好的，我的第二個問題是，到目前為止，所有技術節點的定價壓力如何？

Some of your foundry peers are considering to raise with ASP given a very high utilization at 8-inch fab.

鑑於 8 英寸晶圓廠的利用率非常高，您的一些代工同行正在考慮提高 ASP。

So were you considering to follow to raise the pricing of 8-inch or other mature technology nodes?

那你們有沒有考慮跟進8寸或者其他成熟技術節點的價格呢？

Okay, Roland, let -- thank you.

好的，羅蘭，讓——謝謝。

So your second question is regards to pricing pressure.

所以你的第二個問題是關於定價壓力。

Your note is that some of the foundry peers are considering to raise the 8-inch wafer price.

你注意到一些代工同行正在考慮提高8英寸晶圓的價格。

So you want to know, does TSMC plan to raise our 8-inch wafer pricing or also raise our pricing on the mature nodes?

那麼大家想知道，台積電是打算提高我們8寸晶圓的價格，還是成熟節點也提高價格？

Let me answer the question.

讓我回答這個問題。

The answer, the big answer, is no.

答案，最大的答案，是否定的。

We continue to work with customers, and customer are our partners.

我們不斷與客戶合作，客戶是我們的合作夥伴。

So for short-term supply shortage, we are -- definitely we are not using this kind of opportunity to raise our price.

因此，對於短期供應短缺，我們絕對不會利用這種機會來提高價格。

Our wafer price -- we are selling our values, our service to our customer, that including the technology, delivery, quality, everything.

我們的晶圓價格——我們正在出售我們的價值，我們為客戶提供的服務，包括技術、交付、質量等等。

Certainly, TSMC is working with all the customer and view them as partners, and so we don't using this opportunity to raise our wafer price.

當然，台積電正在與所有客戶合作，並將他們視為合作夥伴，因此我們不會利用這個機會提高我們的晶圓價格。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Next, we're having Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

接下來，我們請來了 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a question on your long-term capacity planning.

我剛剛有一個關於您的長期容量規劃的問題。

I mean you've laid out the view that we're going to see some structural tightness for the next couple years in foundries potentially.

我的意思是你已經提出了這樣一種觀點，即我們可能會在未來幾年看到代工廠出現一些結構性緊張。

And I'm just wondering if you see -- you have a very strong growth position in HPC, but you still have a very low market share in like x86 or PC and servers broadly.

而且我只是想知道你是否看到 - 你在 HPC 中擁有非常強勁的增長地位，但你在 x86 或 PC 和服務器等領域的市場份額仍然很低。

I'm just wondering.

我是在想。

If we do see Intel looking to outsource major CPU lines to foundry, it could be a large onetime boost to the industry, to the foundry industry, so would TSMC be in a meaningful -- would you be able to meaningfully support Intel's needs if there was a big onetime outsourcing?

如果我們確實看到英特爾希望將主要的 CPU 產品線外包給代工，這可能會一次性極大地推動該行業，對代工行業，那麼台積電是否會有意義 - 如果有，您是否能夠有意義地支持英特爾的需求是一個很大的一次性外包？

And would you be prepared to take capital intensity to much higher levels should the opportunity arise?

如果機會出現，您是否準備好將資本密集度提高到更高的水平？

Okay, Brett, let me try to summarize your question.

好的，布雷特，讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

Your question basically is premised around our long-term capacity planning and pointing out that there's a structural tightness in foundry.

你的問題基本上是以我們的長期產能規劃為前提的，並指出鑄造廠存在結構緊張。

And we TSMC has a strong growth position.

而我們台積電的增長勢頭強勁。

So your question specifically relates to x86 and Intel.

所以你的問題具體涉及 x86 和英特爾。

If Intel were to outsource in a -- to foundry, your premise is that this could be a onetime, big outsourcing opportunity.

如果英特爾要外包給代工廠，你的前提是這可能是一次性的、巨大的外包機會。

And so how would we prepare or handle for this?

那麼我們將如何準備或處理呢？

Well, let me say that we do not comment on the specific customers, nor on the specific product, but let me say our CapEx and capacity planning is based on the long-term demand profile, that underpinned by the industry, the megatrend to meet our customers' demand.

好吧，我要說的是，我們不對特定客戶或特定產品發表評論，但我要說的是，我們的資本支出和產能規劃是基於長期需求概況，以行業為基礎，滿足大趨勢我們客戶的需求。

And Intel is one of our important customers and we continue to work with them.

英特爾是我們的重要客戶之一，我們將繼續與他們合作。

Do...

做...

Okay.

好的。

And maybe just a follow-up regarding your capacity plans over the near term.

也許只是關於您近期容量計劃的跟進。

Are you planning to add any capacity at the mature nodes, maybe not so much 8-inch but certainly sort of 28-nanometer or even 16-nanometer?

您是否計劃在成熟節點上增加任何容量，也許不是 8 英寸，但肯定是 28 納米甚至 16 納米？

And do you foresee putting any customers on allocation given the backdrop with tightness at the moment?

鑑於目前緊張的背景，您是否預見到會分配任何客戶？

Okay.

好的。

So Brett, your second question is regards to our capacity plans in the near term, specifically at some of the mature nodes like 28- and 16-nanometer.

所以布雷特，你的第二個問題是關於我們近期的產能計劃，特別是在一些成熟的節點，如 28 和 16 納米。

Are we planning to add capacity?

我們是否計劃增加產能？

And with the tightness, are customers on allocation?

隨著緊張，客戶是否分配？

Well, again, let me say that we plan our capacity to meet the customers' demand.

好吧，我再說一遍，我們計劃我們的產能以滿足客戶的需求。

Whether it's leading-edge, whether mature node or specialties, we always work with customer dynamically and also work with them closely so to plan out capacity.

無論是前沿，無論是成熟節點還是專業，我們總是動態地與客戶合作，也與他們緊密合作，以規劃產能。

And definitely today there is some shortage, but we are doing our best to serve our customers.

今天肯定有一些短缺，但我們正在盡最大努力為我們的客戶服務。

Okay, thank you, Brett.

好的，謝謝你，布雷特。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位要提問的是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

My first question is about your 2-nanometer progression because I think, a couple of weeks ago, there was a news talking about you may see the 2-nanometer in mass production in 2024.

我的第一個問題是關於你們的 2 納米進展，因為我認為，幾週前，有一條新聞說你們可能會在 2024 年看到 2 納米量產。

So I just wanted to get company's clarification about your progress here, maybe your technology road map and that realistic timing for the mass production.

所以我只想讓公司澄清你在這裡的進展，也許是你的技術路線圖和大規模生產的現實時間。

Okay.

好的。

So Charlie's first question is in regards to our 2-nanometer.

所以查理的第一個問題是關於我們的 2 納米。

He says, according to news reports, that the production is going to begin in 2024, so he wants to know whether we can share the technology road map requirements and the timing of our 2-nanometer.

他說，據新聞報導，生產將在2024年開始，所以他想知道我們是否可以分享技術路線圖要求和我們2納米的時間。

Charlie, let me say, frankly, we are not ready to make any comment on the 2-nanometer yet, all right?

查理，讓我說，坦率地說，我們還沒有準備好對 2 納米發表任何評論，好嗎？

Okay, yes, but there seems to be some comments from your technology forum, so any reason why you can't disclose that to investors, the timing for the year?

好的，是的，但是你的技術論壇上似乎有一些評論，所以你為什麼不能向投資者透露這一年的時間？

No.

不。

I think, Charlie, all we have disclosed about our 2-nanometer is the location, which will be in Hsinchu.

我想，查理，關於我們的 2 納米，我們所披露的只是位置，它將在新竹。

We have not commented on the technology specifications, the timing or anything beyond that.

我們沒有對技術規格、時間或除此之外的任何內容髮表評論。

So that is you -- as you said, according to your reading the news.

那就是你——正如你所說，根據你閱讀的新聞。

That is not TSMC's comment.

這不是台積電的評論。

And C.C. said we are not prepared to comment on 2-nanometer.

還有 C.C.表示我們不准備對 2 納米發表評論。

Okay, okay, okay, no problem at all.

好的，好的，好的，一點問題都沒有。

And my second question is maybe to Wendell, about the gross margin trend follow-up.

我的第二個問題可能是關於毛利率趨勢跟進的 Wendell。

So based on your current depreciation table, when do you think that depreciation is going to peak in the coming years or coming quarters, at what point?

因此，根據您目前的折舊表，您認為未來幾年或未來幾個季度折舊將在什麼時候達到頂峰？

And also I think you mentioned that the new node brand is a key factor to the gross margin dilution, but I think 4-nanometer is part of the 5-nanometer family, right, so can we expect that in 2022 there's no -- not going to be any kind of margin dilution from the 4-nanometer?

而且我認為你提到新節點品牌是毛利率稀釋的關鍵因素，但我認為 4 納米是 5 納米系列的一部分，對吧，所以我們可以預計到 2022 年沒有 - 沒有4 納米的利潤率會被稀釋嗎？

All right.

好的。

So Charlie, your second question is regards to depreciation and gross margin.

所以查理，你的第二個問題是關於折舊和毛利率。

Charlie wants to know when do we expect depreciation to peak out on a quarterly or an annual basis.

查理想知道我們預計折舊何時達到季度或年度峰值。

And he also wants to know that would we expect dilution from 4-nanometer in 2022 given that 4-nanometer is an extension of our 5-nanometer.

他還想知道，鑑於 4 納米是我們 5 納米的延伸，我們是否預計到 2022 年 4 納米會被稀釋。

Should there therefore not be dilution from 4-nanometer?

因此，不應該從 4 納米開始稀釋嗎？

Okay, Charlie.

好的，查理。

The first questions, really difficult to answer because, if you continue to invest, you may not have a peak in depreciation just as, if you continue to have strong growth, you may not have a peak in your revenue.

第一個問題真的很難回答，因為如果你繼續投資，折舊可能不會達到頂峰，就像如果你繼續保持強勁增長，你的收入可能不會達到頂峰一樣。

So the second question, yes, we still expect that, N5 family, the gross margin to reach corporate average in about 7 or 8 quarters and which is sometime in 2022.

所以第二個問題，是的，我們仍然預計，N5 家族的毛利率將在大約 7 或 8 個季度內達到公司平均水平，也就是 2022 年的某個時候。

Great, all right.

太好了，好吧。

Right now we're having Laura Chen from KGI.

現在我們有來自 KGI 的 Laura Chen。

Congratulations for the good result.

恭喜取得好成績。

My first question is regarding 3-nanometer.

我的第一個問題是關於 3 納米的。

Can you give us update on current engagement?

你能告訴我們當前參與的最新情況嗎？

And we know that C.C. just mentioned we will have risk production next year and mass production probably on second half 2020.

我們知道 C.C.剛剛提到我們明年將進行風險生產，並可能在 2020 年下半年進行量產。

I'm just wondering.

我是在想。

Will the smartphone or HPC go first?

智能手機或 HPC 會先走嗎？

Okay, that's my first question.

好的，這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, so Laura, your first question is regards to our 3-nanometer.

好的，勞拉，你的第一個問題是關於我們的 3 納米。

She wants to know what is the current engagement with customers.

她想知道當前與客戶的互動情況。

And then with the volume production targeted for second half 2022, is it going to be smartphone- or HPC-driven?

然後以 2022 年下半年的目標量產為目標，它將由智能手機驅動還是 HPC 驅動？

All right, let me answer the question first on the engaging with customer.

好吧，讓我先回答關於與客戶互動的問題。

We are engaging with more customer at N3, as compared with N5 and N7, at the similar stage, okay?

與處於相似階段的 N5 和 N7 相比，我們在 N3 接觸了更多的客戶，好嗎？

So there is a lot of customers working with us.

所以有很多客戶與我們合作。

And now which one -- in the second half of 2022, which one will be the first product actually in smartphone and HPC applications?

現在哪個——在 2022 年下半年，哪個將成為智能手機和 HPC 應用程序中的第一個產品？

Both.

兩個都。

Okay.

好的。

And then my second question is about our supply chain equipment procurement plans.

然後我的第二個問題是關於我們的供應鏈設備採購計劃。

I think given our positive outlook and continuous CapEx, so do we plan to evaluate more local suppliers?

我認為鑑於我們積極的前景和持續的資本支出，我們是否計劃評估更多本地供應商？

So I think -- given TSMC's leading position in the global foundry space, I think that's -- give a good position to lead the localization equipment.

所以我認為 - 鑑於台積電在全球代工領域的領先地位，我認為這是 - 在領導本地化設備方面處於有利地位。

So can you give us some color about what's your view on the -- to buy more equipment from the Taiwanese supplier or current status of total procurement percentage per year from Taiwanese vendors, something like that?

那麼，您能否給我們一些關於您的看法的顏色 - 從台灣供應商購買更多設備或台灣供應商每年總採購百分比的現狀，諸如此類？

Okay, Laura.

好的，勞拉。

So your second question is regards to our vendor and supply chain procurement strategy.

所以你的第二個問題是關於我們的供應商和供應鏈採購策略。

Your question is really will -- are we considering -- will we consider to use more local Taiwan suppliers?

你的問題真的會——我們是否正在考慮——我們會考慮使用更多的台灣本地供應商嗎？

Do we have any type of percentage breakdown or anything like that?

我們有任何類型的百分比細分或類似的東西嗎？

Correct?

正確的？

Yes, yes, correct.

是的，是的，沒錯。

Okay.

好的。

We develop the technology while we maintain the technology and the manufacturing based on the best performance and the best cost structure.

我們開發技術，同時我們根據最佳性能和最佳成本結構維護技術和製造。

So we did not put the where it came from.

所以我們沒有把它來自哪裡。

Or we did not put the regions into consideration, to be frank with you.

坦率地說，或者我們沒有考慮地區。

So the best technology, the best manufacturing cost is what we count.

所以最好的技術，最好的製造成本就是我們所看重的。

And so we don't have any certain percentage limitation on which area or -- the equipment came from, all right?

因此，我們對哪個區域或設備來自哪個區域沒有任何特定的百分比限制，好嗎？

Okay, does that answer your question, Laura?

好的，勞拉，這是否回答了你的問題？

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Next one, we'd have Krish Sankar, Cowen and Company.

下一個，我們有 Krish Sankar、Cowen 和 Company。

Yes.

是的。

I have 2 of them.

我有 2 個。

First one is on the mature nodes, i.e., 28-nanometer and above.

第一個是在成熟節點上，即 28 納米及以上。

Not currently but over the next few years, how do you expect the revenues and wafer starts to trend on the mature nodes, especially as some of your customers start migrating to the leading edge?

不是現在，而是在未來幾年內，您如何看待成熟節點上的收入和晶圓開始趨勢，尤其是當您的一些客戶開始遷移到前沿時？

And then my second question is, in the past, you've spoken about converting some 28-nanometer-plus capacity to 20-nanometer or so for IoT and other applications.

然後我的第二個問題是，在過去，您曾談到將一些 28 納米以上的容量轉換為 20 納米左右的物聯網和其他應用程序。

Can you provide us an update on how this transition is going?

您能否向我們提供有關此過渡進展情況的最新信息？

Okay, thank you, Krish.

好的，謝謝你，克里什。

Let me try to summarize your questions.

讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

Maybe I'll summarize the first one, and then we can summarize the second.

也許我會總結第一個，然後我們可以總結第二個。

Your first question is regards to our mature nodes, specifically 20-nanometer and above.

您的第一個問題是關於我們成熟的節點，特別是 20 納米及以上節點。

You want to know, in the next few years, what is the revenue outlook and also the demand or wafer starts outlook, over the next few years, especially as customers may start to migrate to more leading nodes.

您想知道未來幾年的收入前景以及需求或晶圓啟動前景，尤其是在客戶可能開始遷移到更多領先節點的情況下。

What do we do at 28-nanometer and above?

我們在 28 納米及以上節點做什麼？

What is the outlook?

前景如何？

Well, let me answer the -- specifically on the 28-nanometer.

好吧，讓我回答——特別是關於 28 納米。

We continue to improve the technology.

我們不斷改進技術。

And now we offer 22-nanometer side, ultra-low power, and that's for IoT applications.

現在我們提供 22 納米邊、超低功耗，並且適用於物聯網應用。

And we also work with the customer to migrate their product from 65, 55, to 45, to 28 and to 22.

我們還與客戶合作，將他們的產品從 65、55 遷移到 45、28 和 22。

Today, the noding is not perfect yet, but we expect in 1 or 2 years, and then we expect the noding work greatly improved.

今天點頭還不完善，但我們預計在一兩年內，然後我們期望點頭工作有很大的改進。

And so to answer your question on all the mature node, we're still improving our technologies and we still expect the growth.

因此，為了回答您關於所有成熟節點的問題，我們仍在改進我們的技術，我們仍然期待增長。

Okay.

好的。

And I think, Krish, just to clarify, your -- the second question was in regards to 28.

Krish，我想澄清一下，你的第二個問題是關於 28 的。

And your question was conversion to 20, but as C.C. said, we are converting 28 to 22, so hopefully, that also addressed your second question, all right?

你的問題是轉換為 20，但作為 C.C.說，我們正在將 28 轉換為 22，希望這也解決了您的第二個問題，好嗎？

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

Next one, we're having Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.

下一個，我們有來自大和證券的 Rick Hsu。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, my first question, I just want to make a little clarification about your CapEx for this year.

好的，我的第一個問題，我只想澄清一下你們今年的資本支出。

I think Wendell said about it's going to be around USD 17 billion or it's going to be over USD 17 billion.

我想 Wendell 說過它將達到 170 億美元左右或超過 170 億美元。

Can I make -- can you clarify on this?

我可以——你能澄清一下嗎？

And also give us some, a little bit color about the CapEx for next year, please.

請給我們一些關於明年資本支出的一些顏色。

So your first question, to clarify, our 2020 CapEx.

所以你的第一個問題，澄清一下，我們的 2020 年資本支出。

What -- is it about or above USD 17 billion?

什麼——大約或超過 170 億美元？

Yes, it's about USD 17 billion.

是的，大約是 170 億美元。

Yes, okay, yes...

是的，好的，是的...

Yes.

是的。

For 2021 -- I'm sorry.

2021 年——對不起。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Your second questions is about 2021 CapEx.

你的第二個問題是關於 2021 年的資本支出。

It's too early to discuss the 2021 CapEx at this moment, but as -- if we see strong demand and the -- we will make the investments because the CapEx investment in this year is always for the demand in the following years.

現在討論 2021 年的資本支出還為時過早，但如果我們看到強勁的需求，我們將進行投資，因為今年的資本支出投資始終是為了滿足未來幾年的需求。

So if we see the following years have strong demand, we will invest.

所以如果我們看到接下來幾年有強勁的需求，我們就會投資。

All right.

好的。

I assume it's not second question.

我想這不是第二個問題。

It's just a follow-up, right?

這只是一個跟進，對吧？

Can I ask one more?

我可以再問一個嗎？

You -- sure.

你確定。

Your second question, please.

你的第二個問題，請。

Okay.

好的。

So second question is about the inventory.

所以第二個問題是關於庫存的。

I think C.C. did mention that, right now because of the macro uncertainties, COVID-19, et cetera -- so customers intend to keep their inventories above seasonal for a longer period of time, but what if -- because -- unless uncertainty remains structural and it goes on forever.

我認為 C.C.確實提到過，現在由於宏觀不確定性，COVID-19 等等——所以客戶打算在更長的時間內將庫存保持在季節性以上，但是如果——因為——除非不確定性仍然是結構性的，而且它永遠持續下去。

Otherwise, one day, when uncertainty are removed, do you worry about your customer to unwind inventory and cause some business correction?

否則，有一天，當不確定性消除後，您是否擔心您的客戶解除庫存並導致一些業務調整？

Okay, Rick.

好的，瑞克。

So your second question is regards to inventory.

所以你的第二個問題是關於庫存的。

Although there is macro uncertainty and COVID-19 -- but someday, this will be over.

儘管存在宏觀不確定性和 COVID-19——但總有一天，這一切都會結束。

So does this worry us?

這讓我們擔心嗎？

Will we see a sudden sharp correction or inventory drop as a result?

我們會因此看到突然的大幅調整或庫存下降嗎？

Okay, let me share with you again our view on inventory.

好吧，我再跟大家分享一下我們對庫存的看法。

In fact, we don't worry too much about it because of the -- as I said, now because of pandemic, the digital transformation has been accelerated, and that create a lot of new demand.

事實上，我們並不太擔心，因為——正如我所說，現在由於大流行，數字化轉型已經加速，這創造了很多新的需求。

Let me say that.

讓我這麼說。

It looks like -- take for example now work from home.

看起來——以現在在家工作為例。

So now everybody buy a PC.

所以現在每個人都買 PC。

Every kid had to buy a PC.

每個孩子都必須購買一台 PC。

And then just look at again on the 5G smartphones benefit.

然後再看看 5G 智能手機的好處。

There are advantages of the -- on the bandwidth and the speed and the low latency, everything, and people are going to need it in this digital transformation.

有優勢 - 在帶寬和速度以及低延遲方面，一切，人們將在這個數字轉型中需要它。

And so even right now it's we expect the inventory is higher than historical high level, but the demand will pick up.

因此，即使現在我們預計庫存仍高於歷史高位，但需求將會回升。

And in next year was -- or the 2022, we are confident that demand will pick up.

在明年或 2022 年，我們相信需求將會回升。

And so that minimize or mitigate the impact of the inventory correction that everybody has a doubt on their mind.

從而最大限度地減少或減輕每個人都懷疑的庫存調整的影響。

Okay?

好的？

Great.

偉大的。

Next one is Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一位是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes.

是的。

First one, if your customers are willing to have inventories above this average trend line, should we assume that your wafer shipment in the first half of 2021 and specifically Q1 would also follow a better-than-seasonal trend?

首先，如果您的客戶願意讓庫存高於這條平均趨勢線，我們是否應該假設您在 2021 年上半年，特別是第一季度的晶圓出貨量也將遵循好於季節性的趨勢？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi's first question is regarding to basically our first quarter.

所以 Mehdi 的第一個問題基本上是關於我們的第一季度。

If customers are willing to hold a higher level of inventory, should we assume that wafer shipments in the first quarter will also be much better?

如果客戶願意持有更高水平的庫存，我們是否應該假設第一季度的晶圓出貨量也會好很多？

We are going to share with you in the first investor conference, all right?

我們將在第一屆投資者會議上與您分享，好嗎？

Right now we are not ready to make any comment on 2021, especially the first quarter.

目前我們不准備對 2021 年發表任何評論，尤其是第一季度。

Okay, your second question, Mehdi?

好的，你的第二個問題，Mehdi？

Okay, sure.

好的，當然。

Can you please remind us what we should think about tapeout activity and specifically at N4 and N5?

您能否提醒我們應該如何考慮 tapeout 活動，特別是在 N4 和 N5？

And how does it compare to N7?

與 N7 相比如何？

Any follow-up will be great.

任何後續行動都會很棒。

So your question is the tapeout activity at N4 and N5 as compared to N7.

所以你的問題是與 N7 相比，N4 和 N5 的流片活動。

Well...

出色地...

Yes, if there is any update?

是的，如果有任何更新？

Okay.

好的。

The demand is very strong in N4, N5, and we are engaging many customers.

N4、N5 的需求非常強勁，我們正在吸引許多客戶。

So the exact number of the tapeouts right now is all in the -- our planning and -- but I can share with you that customers' demand is very strong and will be -- continue to be strong for the next couple of years.

所以現在流片的確切數量都在——我們的計劃中——但我可以和你分享，客戶的需求非常強勁，而且將在未來幾年繼續強勁。

Okay, all right.

好的，好的。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

Right now we have Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

現在我們有來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

There has been a lot of discussion on market share on leading edge.

關於前沿市場份額的討論很多。

And so could you comment a little bit on how do we think about TSMC's market share in N7, which I think is probably like 85 -- 80%, 85% or even higher and compare that with what are we expecting for the N5 family, which will include N5 and N4?

那麼您能否評論一下我們如何看待台積電在 N7 中的市場份額，我認為這可能是 85-80%、85% 甚至更高，並將其與我們對 N5 系列的預期進行比較，哪個將包括 N5 和 N4？

And I have a second question as well.

我還有第二個問題。

All right, Gokul's first follow-up question is in terms of market share.

好的，Gokul 的第一個後續問題是市場份額方面的問題。

He wants to ask C.C. What do we see in terms of our market share at 7-nanometer?

他想問C.C.我們如何看待 7 納米的市場份額？

And what is our expectation or outlook at the 5-nanometer family?

我們對 5 納米系列的期望或展望是什麼？

Gokul, it seems I'll continue to say we have technology leadership.

Gokul，看來我會繼續說我們擁有技術領先地位。

So I can share with you that we have very high percentage of market share, but what exact number is not appropriate, to announce it, because it's all our own estimate.

所以我可以跟大家分享一下，我們有很高的市場份額，但是具體的數字是不合適的，公佈出來，因為這都是我們自己的估計。

But again the most important thing is not market share.

但同樣最重要的不是市場份額。

The most important thing for us is continue to maintain the technology leadership, and we are focused on that.

對我們來說最重要的是繼續保持技術領先地位，我們正專注於此。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up question on that.

這只是一個後續問題。

Can we say at least directionally if N5 market share in our own estimate is higher than N7, or similar to N7?

如果我們自己估計的 N5 市場份額高於 N7，或者與 N7 相似，我們是否可以至少在方向上說？

Okay.

好的。

So the second question Gokul wants to ask, still our market share.

所以Gokul想問的第二個問題，還是我們的市場份額。

Do we see, directionally will N5 market share be higher than that of N7?

我們是否看到，N5的市場份額在方向上會高於N7？

They are very similar because of we are always the technology leader.

它們非常相似，因為我們始終是技術領先者。

When we introduced N7, we are the technology leader.

當我們推出 N7 時，我們是技術領先者。

And when we introduce the N5 this year in mass production, we'll continue to be the technology leader, so they are very similar.

而當我們今年量產推出N5時，我們仍將是技術領先者，所以它們非常相似。

Okay, thank you, yes.

好的，謝謝，是的。

Thanks, Gokul...

謝謝，戈庫爾...

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Can I ask one more question...

我可以再問一個問題嗎...

I think -- Gokul, sorry.

我想—— Gokul，抱歉。

That's 2, so I would -- sorry.

那是 2，所以我會 -- 抱歉。

I would like to ask you to get back in the queue because we still have, I think, quite a few people, but thank you.

我想請你回到隊列中，因為我認為我們還有很多人，但謝謝你。

Okay, all right.

好的，好的。

All right.

好的。

Next one, we have Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.

下一個，我們有來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Okay, yes.

好的，是的。

I wanted to ask on the R&D.

我想問一下R&D。

It stepped up faster in the quarter.

它在本季度加快了步伐。

From this higher level, could you discuss the investment rate that you're expecting for R&D, say, as a percent of sales?

從這個更高的層面來看，您能否討論一下您對研發的預期投資率，比如說佔銷售額的百分比？

And would the new advanced nodes and packaging investments start to increase the R&D intensity?

新的先進節點和封裝投資是否會開始增加研發強度？

Okay.

好的。

So Randy's first question is that he noticed, well, points out actually, that our R&D has increased or stepped up in the third quarter this year.

所以蘭迪的第一個問題是，他注意到，嗯，實際上指出，我們的研發在今年第三季度有所增加或加強。

So he wants to know, given advanced packaging and the continued technology leadership, what is the R&D percentage of sales outlook that they -- we should expect?

所以他想知道，鑑於先進的封裝和持續的技術領先地位，他們——我們應該期待的銷售前景的研發百分比是多少？

Randy, let me share with you that in the third quarter the R&D expenses are higher because of our development activities in N4 and N3.

蘭迪，讓我和你分享一下，由於我們在 N4 和 N3 的開發活動，第三季度的研發費用更高。

Longer term, we're still expecting the R&D expense to be about 8% or slightly higher than 8% of our revenue.

從長遠來看，我們仍然預計研發費用將占我們收入的 8% 左右或略高於 8%。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

And the second follow-up question I had, just on a couple segments.

我有第二個後續問題，只是關於幾個部分。

Auto, I think you mentioned earlier about coming back.

汽車，我想你之前提到過回來。

It was soft in the quarter.

本季度表現疲軟。

Could you discuss now, as a growth driver from a low base, if you're finally seeing some of those content driver toward next 1 to 2 years?

您現在能否討論一下，作為低基數的增長動力，您是否最終會在未來 1 到 2 年看到其中的一些內容驅動力？

There could be a meaningful pickup even without auto but from a content.

即使沒有 auto 但來自內容，也可能會有有意義的拾取。

And then the other side, on consumer, which was quite weak just despite a lot of work from home and consumer electronics coming through.

另一方面，在消費者方面，儘管有大量家庭和消費電子產品的工作，但它還是相當疲軟。

So if you can give color maybe on something happening in the consumer segment.

因此，如果您可以為消費者領域發生的事情提供顏色。

Okay.

好的。

So Randy's second question is really a little bit split into 2, but he wants to know, with the automotive business seeming to bottom out, how do we view our automotive platform as a growth driver?

所以 Randy 的第二個問題實際上有點一分為二，但他想知道，隨著汽車業務似乎觸底反彈，我們如何將我們的汽車平台視為增長動力？

Or outlook over the next few years.

或者未來幾年的展望。

And then similarly, he also is asking about digital consumer.

然後同樣，他也在詢問數字消費者。

All right.

好的。

Actually, let me comment on the automotive platform.

實際上，讓我評論一下汽車平台。

Actually the COVID-19 has a major impact on the automotive market.

實際上，COVID-19 對汽車市場產生了重大影響。

And supply chain this year have all been affected, but we are seeing the sign of recovery in 4Q.

今年的供應鏈都受到了影響，但我們在第四季度看到了復甦的跡象。

In the longer term, the trend towards safer, greener and smarter vehicle will continue to drive silicon content increase as well as the demand for advanced and specialty technology.

從長遠來看，更安全、更環保和更智能的汽車趨勢將繼續推動矽含量的增加以及對先進和專業技術的需求。

And again I want to emphasize, with our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the opportunities.

我想再次強調，憑藉我們的技術領先地位，我們有能力抓住機遇。

On the growth rate, the growth rate continue to pick up and -- but still behind the HPCs growth rate.

在增長率方面，增長率繼續回升——但仍落後於 HPC 的增長率。

And for the digital consumer, it's kind of flat or is a little bit growth that I can see today.

對於數字消費者來說，我今天看到的情況是持平或略有增長。

Did that answer your question, Randy?

蘭迪，這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Just maybe the near term.

也許只是近期。

I was surprised it was as much down, factoring in stay-at-home consumer electronics demand, but I don't know if anything -- just specific or short term in nature on that.

考慮到居家消費電子產品需求，我很驚訝它下降了那麼多，但我不知道是否有任何東西——只是具體的或短期的。

Okay.

好的。

Actually, some of the product -- because of stay at home or the work from home, some of the product, we put into the HPCs category.

實際上，有些產品——因為呆在家里或在家工作，有些產品，我們將其歸入 HPC 類別。

Yes, that's right.

恩，那就對了。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Next one is Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

下一位是里昂證券的塞巴斯蒂安侯。

Sebastian, you may need to unmute.

塞巴斯蒂安，你可能需要取消靜音。

So let me -- first question.

那麼讓我——第一個問題。

Let me try the overbooking inventory question in another way again, if I may.

如果可以的話，讓我以另一種方式再次嘗試超售庫存問題。

So we understand the higher inventory is structural, led by COVID-19, but how about the higher inventory?

所以我們知道較高的庫存是結構性的，由 COVID-19 主導，但較高的庫存又如何呢？

Is that led by customers' fear of foundry capacity tightness, which is now undersupplied almost everywhere, from leading edge to cutting edge?

這是因為客戶擔心晶圓代工產能吃緊，現在從前沿到尖端，幾乎所有地方都供應不足？

Based on the past cycle's experience, the tighter the supply of any components, the higher the risk of supply chain overbooking.

根據過去週期的經驗，任何元器件的供應越緊張，供應鏈超售的風險就越高。

It happens.

它發生了。

I'm curious whether TSMC is seeing any gap between customers' ordering volume and your internal forecasts on end demand.

我很好奇台積電是否發現客戶的訂單量與您對最終需求的內部預測之間存在差距。

Or it's not a concern at all, as all the strong orders are just a reflection of the real demand.

或者根本不用擔心，因為所有強勁的訂單都只是實際需求的反映。

Okay.

好的。

So Sebastian's question is around the inventory.

所以塞巴斯蒂安的問題是關於庫存的。

And while, his view, some of the inventory may be related to COVID-19 and more structural or linger for a while, he wants to know.

雖然，他認為，一些庫存可能與 COVID-19 有關，並且更具結構性或會持續一段時間，但他想知道。

Is there a concern?

有什麼顧慮嗎？

Does TSMC have a concern that -- because the foundry is tight, that therefore the customers are doing a lot of overbooking or so-called double booking?

台積電是否擔心——因為代工廠供應緊張，所以客戶會進行大量超額預訂或所謂的雙重預訂？

And also, therefore, does this create a concern for TSMC, when we look at our internal forecast for the end-demand market versus customers booking, that there is a large gap and risk of shortfall?

因此，當我們查看我們對終端需求市場與客戶預訂的內部預測時，這是否會引起台積電的擔憂，即存在巨大差距和短缺風險？

Well, Sebastian, actually, in TSMC's view, all my customers are our partners.

嗯，塞巴斯蒂安，實際上，在台積電看來，我所有的客戶都是我們的合作夥伴。

So we work with them very closely.

所以我們與他們密切合作。

And so to -- yes, to -- basically that minimize the fear of overbooking because of they don't have to be afraid of the capacity shortage and then do the overbooking to TSMC, no.

所以 - 是的 - 基本上可以最大限度地減少對超額預訂的恐懼，因為他們不必擔心產能短缺，然後對台積電進行超額預訂，不。

We work with them as a partner.

我們作為合作夥伴與他們合作。

And we -- both parties and all my customer work with TSMC and tell us their view on the market, and we share our view on the market with them also.

我們 - 雙方和我所有的客戶都與台積電合作，並告訴我們他們對市場的看法，我們也與他們分享我們對市場的看法。

So this one minimize all -- a lot of the possibility of overbooking.

所以這一個最小化了所有 - 大量超額預訂的可能性。

And that's way that TSMC working with our customers.

這就是台積電與客戶合作的方式。

They are all our partners.

他們都是我們的合作夥伴。

Did that answer your question, Sebastian?

塞巴斯蒂安，這回答了你的問題嗎？

Great.

偉大的。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

That's a very, very good answer.

這是一個非常非常好的答案。

My second follow-up question is that we've seen the rising cross-trade relationship risk in recent months.

我的第二個後續問題是，我們已經看到最近幾個月交叉貿易關係風險上升。

So I wonder if TSMC -- or your customers are concerned or discuss with you about the potential risk in production operation, as most of your fabs are located in Taiwan, and if such heightened risk continue for longer than just months, whether TSMC will keep -- consider to keep most of that fab work in Taiwan or increase investment in the other regions.

所以我想知道台積電 - 或者你的客戶是否擔心或與你討論生產運營中的潛在風險，因為你的大部分晶圓廠都位於台灣，如果這種高風險持續超過幾個月，台積電是否會繼續——考慮將大部分晶圓廠工作留在台灣或增加對其他地區的投資。

Okay, Sebastian, thank you.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安，謝謝你。

Let me summarize your second question.

讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。

Your question is regarding that you observed rising or growing risks in the cross-trade relationships.

你的問題是關於你觀察到交叉貿易關係中風險上升或增加的問題。

And so for -- therefore, for our customers, do they feel there is a heightened risk?

因此，對於我們的客戶來說，他們是否覺得風險增加了？

And thus, is there a need for TSMC to, I guess, paraphase, expand our manufacturing footprint into other locations, given the state of cross-trade relations, in the next few years?

因此，鑑於交叉貿易關係的狀況，在未來幾年內，我猜台積電是否有必要將我們的製造足跡擴展到其他地方？

Okay, Sebastian.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安。

In fact, TSMC will continue to focus on Taiwan.

事實上，台積電將繼續專注於台灣。

I mean that's -- our center of R&D and majority of our production fabs will continue to be located in Taiwan regardless of that -- all the geopolitical tension or any kind of disruption.

我的意思是——我們的研發中心和我們的大部分生產工廠將繼續位於台灣，無論如何——所有地緣政治緊張局勢或任何形式的破壞。

Did that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Next one, we have Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一個，我們有來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Okay.

好的。

So the question is for the advanced packaging.

所以問題是針對高級封裝。

What is the revenue growth for the advanced packaging in 2020?

2020年先進封裝收入增長情況如何？

The growth rate seems to be very strong, but the management also only guided for like the future growth of -- for the advanced packaging is only slightly higher than the corporate average.

增長率似乎非常強勁，但管理層也只指導未來的增長——先進封裝僅略高於公司平均水平。

This is much lower than what we have in the past 3 years.

這遠低於我們過去 3 年的水平。

Any reasons behind that?

這背後有什麼原因嗎？

And what's the profitability for the advanced packaging right now?

目前先進封裝的盈利能力如何？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce, your first question is regards to our advanced packaging business.

所以布魯斯，你的第一個問題是關於我們的先進封裝業務。

You want to know what is the growth of the advanced packaging business in 2020.

您想知道2020年先進封裝業務的增長情況如何。

And also, what is the profitability of the advanced packaging?

還有，先進封裝的盈利能力如何？

Yes.

是的。

Bruce, the growth of our advanced packaging in this year is close to the corporate but not as high.

布魯斯，今年我們先進封裝的增長接近企業，但沒有那麼高。

In this next several years, we do expect that on a CAGR basis it will be faster -- it will grow faster than the corporate average.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們確實預計在復合年增長率的基礎上它會更快——它的增長速度將超過公司平均水平。

And in terms of margins, its margins is lower than the corporate.

就利潤率而言，其利潤率低於公司。

However, its investment intensity, capital intensity is lower.

但其投資強度、資金強度較低。

Therefore, on a return basis, ROIC basis, it is acceptable to us.

因此，在回報的基礎上，ROIC 的基礎上，我們可以接受。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

So I -- the next question is for the 28 nanometers.

所以我——下一個問題是關於 28 納米的。

I want to clarify something.

我想澄清一件事。

In the fourth quarter 2019, I think that management showed a very high confidence that 28-nanometer utilization rate were back to the corporate average driven by more utilization such as CMOS and many FinFET, et cetera.

在 2019 年第四季度，我認為在 CMOS 和許多 FinFET 等更多利用率的推動下，管理層對 28 納米利用率回到公司平均水平表現出非常高的信心。

However, if my understanding is correct, management still expects it will be lower than corporate average in the coming years in terms of utilization rate.

然而，如果我的理解是正確的，管理層仍然預計未來幾年的利用率將低於公司平均水平。

Is that the right understanding right now?

現在這樣理解對嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So your second question, Bruce, is regarding our 20-nanometer.

Bruce，你的第二個問題是關於我們的 20 納米。

In...

在...

28.

28.

I'm sorry...

對不起...

28.

28.

28.

28.

I'm sorry.

對不起。

28 nanometers.

28納米。

Yes, 28-nanometer.

是的，28 納米。

And that you said that we had commented in the fourth quarter '19 earnings result January this year that our 28-nanometer utilization would improve in 1 to 2 years time.

你說我們在今年 1 月的 19 年第四季度收益結果中評論說，我們的 28 納米利用率將在 1 到 2 年內提高。

And so -- and to the corporate average.

所以 - 以及公司平均水平。

And now your question is does that statement still hold true.

現在您的問題是該聲明是否仍然適用。

Bruce, let me say that the progress is a little bit slower than we expected, but still, in 1 to 2 years, the utilization rate of the 28-nanometer particularly, we'll advance it to 22-nanometer while it reaching the corporate average.

Bruce，讓我說進度比我們預期的要慢一點，但是仍然在1到2年內，特別是28納米的利用率，我們會在它到達企業的同時將其推進到22納米平均的。

Okay.

好的。

All right, in the interest of time, we will take the question from the last caller or last participant, please.

好的，為了節省時間，我們將接受最後一位來電者或最後一位與會者的問題。

The last one to ask questions is Roland Shu from Citigroup.

最後一位提問的是來自花旗集團的Roland Shu。

Yes.

是的。

On your N6 technology.

在你的 N6 技術上。

It's with one more EUV layer insertion than 7+, but N4 is with reduced mask layers from N5.

它比 7+ 多了一層 EUV 層插入，但 N4 比 N5 減少了掩膜層。

And it's with a simplified process.

而且它有一個簡化的過程。

So can you elaborate your technology development logic between N6 and N4 and also the target market for N6 and N4?

那麼您能否闡述一下您在N6和N4之間的技術發展邏輯，以及N6和N4的目標市場？

And how will N6 and N4 contribute to your business, respectively, going forward?

N6 和 N4 將如何分別為您的業務做出貢獻？

Okay, Roland.

好的，羅蘭。

So your question is regards to N6 versus N4 positioning.

所以你的問題是關於 N6 和 N4 的定位。

You point out, technology-wise, N6 has one more EUV layer than 7+, but N4 may have reduced mass players versus N5 and with simplified process.

你指出，在技術方面，N6 比 7+ 多了一個 EUV 層，但 N4 可能比 N5 減少了大眾玩家並且簡化了工藝。

So you really -- you're asking, does N4 serve the same group or target the same group of customers as N6?

所以你真的 - 你問的是，N4 是否與 N6 服務於同一組或針對同一組客戶？

Or are they separate, well, markets or targeting separate customers and applications?

或者它們是獨立的，嗯，市場或針對不同的客戶和應用程序？

Correct, great.

正確，很棒。

Roland, it's actually very hard to answer your question whether the N6 is the same kind of group of N4.

羅蘭，其實很難回答你的問題，N6是不是和N4是同一組的。

Let me give you some kind of idea.

讓我給你一些想法。

N6 is kind of development, continued enhancement of the N7 or N7+.

N6 是 N7 或 N7+ 的一種發展，持續增強。

And so all the second wave of the customer will use N6 when they want to enter the 7-nanometer family and because of that offer the better density, better performance and better power consumption.

因此，所有第二波客戶在想要進入 7 納米系列時都會使用 N6，因為它提供了更好的密度、更好的性能和更好的功耗。

Now the -- similar to N6, N4 is also -- will continue to improve the N5.

現在——與 N6 類似，N4 也——將繼續改進 N5。

And we also observe that, if we can reduce mask count, we can improve the defect density.

而且我們還觀察到，如果我們可以減少掩模數量，我們可以提高缺陷密度。

We can improve the cycle time.

我們可以改善週期時間。

And we also -- at the same time, we also offer the better density, better performance, et cetera, et cetera.

我們也——與此同時，我們還提供更好的密度、更好的性能等等。

And so are they the same group?

那麼他們是同一組嗎？

I cannot answer this question, but it's the same purpose.

我無法回答這個問題，但目的是一樣的。

We offer N6 to be the second wave of the N7's customer.

我們提供 N6 作為 N7 的第二波客戶。

We'll offer the N4 also to offer to the second wave of the customer of N5.

我們將提供 N4 也提供給 N5 的第二波客戶。

Yes.

是的。

Did that...

做過某事...

Okay, that is -- yes, I've been -- yes.

好的，那是——是的，我一直是——是的。

It's a little bit complicated, yes, because N4 -- does -- is there any performance enhancement to N5?

是的，這有點複雜，因為 N4 確實比 N5 有任何性能增強嗎？

Because it is with simplified process.

因為它是簡化的過程。

And still there is -- I can understand at least the improvements on defect, on this product -- production cycle times, but how about from the performance point of view?

而且仍然有——我至少可以理解缺陷的改進，在這個產品上——生產週期時間，但從性能的角度來看怎麼樣？

Is there going to be an enhancement to N5?

N5會有增強嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So your second question, Roland, continues to ask about the 4-nanometer.

所以你的第二個問題，Roland，繼續問關於 4 納米的問題。

Will -- N4, does it carry any performance enhancement or PPA improvement as compared to N5?

Will -- N4，與 N5 相比，它是否具有任何性能增強或 PPA 改進？

Yes.

是的。

The short answer is yes.

簡短的回答是肯定的。

We improve the density.

我們提高密度。

We improve the performance, including the transistor performance.

我們提高性能，包括晶體管性能。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

All right, this concludes our Q&A session.

好了，我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。

The transcript will become available 24 hours from now.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

Both of them are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

它們都將通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 提供。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy, and we hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望每個人都繼續保持安全和健康，我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。