台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone.

（外語）大家下午好。

Welcome to TSMC's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加台積電 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

為了防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播舉辦我們的財報電話會議，您也可以在該網站下載財報發布資料。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2020.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼財務長黃文德爾先生將總結我們2020年第三季的營運情況，然後是我們對2020年第四季的指導。

Afterwards, TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei and Mr. Huang will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，台積電執行長 C.C.魏先生和黃先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the line for Q&A.

然後我們將開通問答熱線。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想將電話轉給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生，以獲取營運摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Third quarter revenue increased 14.7% sequentially in NT dollars or 16.9% in U.S. dollars, as we saw strong demand for our advanced technologies and special technology solutions driven by 5G smartphones, HPC and IoT-related applications.

第三季營收以新台幣計算季增 14.7%，以美元計算環比成長 16.9%，因為我們看到 5G 智慧型手機、HPC 和物聯網相關應用對我們的先進技術和特殊技術解決方案的需求強勁。

Gross margin increased 0.4 percentage points sequentially to 53.4%, mainly thanks to a much higher level of utilization, partially offset by the margin dilution from 5-nanometer ramp and unfavorable exchange rate.

毛利率季增 0.4 個百分點，達到 53.4%，這主要得益於利用率水準的大幅提高，但部分被 5 奈米製程提升和不利匯率造成的利潤稀釋所抵銷。

The operating expenses increased by TWD 7.4 billion, mainly attributable to a higher level of development activities for N4 and N3 technologies and onetime expenses to facilitate our expansion in Hsinchu.

營業費用增加 74 億新台幣，主要是由於 N4 和 N3 技術的開發活動水平提高以及為促進新竹擴張而一次性支出。

Therefore, operating margin slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points sequentially to 42.1%.

因此，營業利潤率比上一季小幅下降 0.1 個百分點，至 42.1%。

Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD 5.3, and ROE was 31.3%.

整體而言，我們第三季 EPS 為新台幣 5.3，ROE 為 31.3%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。

5-nanometer process technology contributed 8% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while 7-nanometer and 16-nanometer contributed 35% and 18%, respectively.

5奈米製程技術貢獻了第三季晶圓收入的8%，7奈米和16奈米分別貢獻了35%和18%。

Advanced technologies, defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 61% of wafer revenue.

先進技術（定義為 16 奈米及以下）佔晶圓收入的 61%。

In terms of revenue contribution by platform, smartphone increased 12% quarter-over-quarter, to account for 46% of our third quarter revenue.

從平台收入貢獻來看，智慧型手機季增 12%，佔第三季營收的 46%。

HPC increased 25%, to account for 37%.

HPC 成長了 25%，達到 37%。

IoT increased 24%, to account for 9%.

IoT 成長了 24%，佔比達到 9%。

Automotive decreased 23%, to account for 2%.

汽車產業下降了23%，佔比為2%。

Digital consumer electronics decreased 24%, to account for 3%.

數位消費性電子產品下降24%，佔3%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

繼續看資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 742 billion.

截至第三季末，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 7,420 億。

On the liabilities side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 27 billion mainly due to the decrease of short-term loans and the decrease of current portion of bonds payable.

負債方面，流動負債減少270億元新台幣，主要是短期貸款減少及應付債券到期部分減少所致。

Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 146 billion mainly as we raised TWD 145 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.

長期有息債務增加1,460億新台幣，主要是因為本季籌集了1,450億新台幣的公司債。

On financial ratios.

關於財務比率。

Accounts receivable turnover days decreased 4 days to 40 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 58 days primarily due to N5 ramp.

應收帳款週轉天數減少 4 天至 40 天，而庫存天數增加 3 天至 58 天，主要是由於 N5 的爬坡所致。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx.

關於現金流和資本支出。

During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 190 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 99 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for fourth quarter '19 cash dividend.

在第三季度，我們從營運中產生了約 1,900 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出上花費了 990 億新台幣，並為 19 年第四季度分配了 650 億新台幣的現金股息。

Short-term loan decreased by TWD 17 billion, while bonds payable increased by TWD 136 billion mainly due to the bond issuances.

短期貸款減少170億元，應付債券增加1,360億元，主要是因為發行債券所致。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 137 billion to TWD 604 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 1,370 億新台幣，達到 6,040 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our third quarter capital expenditures totaled $3.4 billion.

以美元計算，我們第三季的資本支出總計 34 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our fourth quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向第四季的指引。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 12.4 billion and USD 12.7 billion, representing a 3.4% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第四季營收將在 124 億美元至 127 億美元之間，環比中位數成長 3.4%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 28.75, gross margin is expected to be between 51.5% and 53.5%, operating margin between 40.5% and 42.5%.

根據1美元兌換28.75新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在51.5%至53.5%之間，營業利潤率在40.5%至42.5%之間。

Now I will hand over to -- the call to C.C. for his key messages.

現在我將把電話交給 C.C.他的關鍵訊息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

我們希望每個人在這段時間都保持安全和健康。

Now let me start with our near-term demand and inventory.

現在讓我從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。

We concluded our third quarter with revenue of TWD 356.4 billion or USD 12.1 billion, which was above our guidance, mainly due to better demand across all our platforms than our forecast 3 months ago.

我們第三季的營收為 3,564 億新台幣（121 億美元），高於我們的預期，主要是由於我們所有平台的需求好於我們 3 個月前的預測。

Moving into fourth quarter 2020, we expect our sequential growth to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer technology driven by 5G smartphone launches and HPC-related applications.

進入 2020 年第四季度，我們預計我們的連續成長將受到 5G 智慧型手機發布和 HPC 相關應用推動的對行業領先 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持。

On the inventory front, we forecast our fabless customers' overall inventory to exit the year above the seasonal level as the supply chain continues to make efforts to ensure supply chain security and actively prepare for the new 5G smartphone launches.

在庫存方面，隨著供應鏈繼續努力確保供應鏈安全並積極準備新的 5G 智慧型手機發布，我們預計無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存將高於季節性水平。

Looking ahead, we expect our customers' overall inventory to remain above the historical seasonal level for a longer period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure supply chain security amidst the lingering uncertainties.

展望未來，鑑於行業在不確定性揮之不去的情況下仍需要確保供應鏈安全，我們預計客戶的整體庫存將在較長一段時間內保持在歷史季節性水平之上。

For the full year of 2020, although COVID-19 continue to bring some level of impact to the global economies, we also observe that COVID-19 is accelerating digital transformation, while 5G and HPC-related applications continue to drive semiconductor content enrichment.

2020年全年，雖然COVID-19持續為全球經濟帶來一定程度的影響，但我們也觀察到COVID-19正在加速數位轉型，而5G和HPC相關應用持續推動半導體內容豐富。

We now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase mid-single-digit percentage, while foundry industry growth is expected to be close to 20% year-over-year.

我們現在預測，不包括記憶體在內的整個半導體市場將出現中等個位數百分比的成長，而代工產業的年成長率預計將接近 20%。

For TSMC, our technology leadership position enable us to capture the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC.

對於台積電來說，我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠抓住5G和HPC的行業大趨勢。

We expect to outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by about 30% in 2020 in U.S. dollar terms.

我們預計 2020 年以美元計算的收入成長將超過代工收入成長約 30%。

Next, let me talk about our N5 ramp-up and N4 progress.

接下來，讓我談談我們的 N5 提升和 N4 進展。

TSMC's N5 is foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA.

台積電的 N5 是代工產業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的 PPA。

N5 is already in volume production with good yield, while we continue to improve the productivity and performance of the EUV tools to further enhance our leadership in EUV technology.

N5已經量產並具有良好的良率，同時我們不斷提高EUV工具的生產率和性能，以進一步增強我們在EUV技術上的領先地位。

Due to the robust demand from 5G smartphones and HPC applications, we'll reaffirm N5 will contribute about 8% of our wafer revenue in 2020, and we expect even higher percentage in 2021.

由於5G智慧型手機和HPC應用的強勁需求，我們將重申N5將在2020年貢獻我們晶圓收入的8%左右，我們預計2021年比例會更高。

N4.

N4。

While leveraging the strong foundation of N5 to further extend our 5-nanometer family, N4 is a straightforward migration from N5 with compatible design rules while providing further performance, power and density enhancement for the next-wave 5-nanometer products.

在利用 N5 的堅實基礎進一步擴展我們的 5 奈米系列的同時，N4 是從 N5 的直接遷移，具有相容的設計規則，同時為下一代 5 奈米產品提供進一步的性能、功率和密度增強。

N4 risk production is targeted for 4Q 2021 and volume production in 2022.

N4 風險生產計畫於 2021 年第四季進行，並於 2022 年實現量產。

With our continuous technology enhancement, we expect our 5-nanometer family to be a large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

隨著我們不斷的技術改進，我們預計我們的 5 奈米系列將成為台積電的一個大型且持久的節點。

Now I will talk about our N3 status.

現在我就來談談我們的N3狀態。

N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 with up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% performance gain and up to 30% power reduction, as compared with N5.

N3 將是 N5 的另一個全節點進步，與 N5 相比，邏輯密度增益高達 70%，效能增益高達 15%，功耗降低高達 30%。

We have chosen FinFET transistor structure for our N3 technology to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers.

我們為 N3 技術選擇了 FinFET 電晶體結構，為我們的客戶提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress.

我們的 N3 技術開發正步入正軌並取得良好進展。

Hence, we will offer complete platform support for both mobile and HPC applications.

因此，我們將為行動和 HPC 應用程式提供完整的平台支援。

Risk production is scheduled in 2021, and volume production is targeted in second half of 2022.

計劃於2021年進行風險生產，並計劃於2022年下半年實現量產。

Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced.

我們的3奈米技術一旦推出，將成為PPA和電晶體技術中最先進的代工技術。

Thus, we are confident our 3 nanometer will be a large -- another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心我們的 3 奈米將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

Finally, I will talk about TSMC 3DFabric.

最後說一下台積電3DFabric。

TSMC has developed an industry-leading and comprehensive wafer-level 3D IC technology road map to enhance system-level performance.

台積電制定了業界領先且全面的晶圓級 3D IC 技術路線圖，以提升系統級效能。

Our differentiated chiplets and heterogeneous integration technologies drive better, power-efficient and smaller-form-factor benefits for our customers while shortening their time to market.

我們差異化的小晶片和異質整合技術為我們的客戶帶來更好、更節能和更小的外形優勢，同時縮短他們的上市時間。

This technology is including chip-stacking solutions such as SoIC as well as advanced packaging solution such as InFO and CoWoS.

該技術包括SoIC等晶片堆疊解決方案以及InFO和CoWoS等先進封裝解決方案。

We are consolidating this offering under one umbrella and naming it TSMC 3DFabric.

我們正在將這項產品整合到一個產品中，並將其命名為 TSMC 3DFabric。

As industry continue to seek innovations to enhance system-level performance, 3DFabric will complement our advanced technology to unleash our customers' innovation.

隨著業界不斷尋求創新來提高系統級性能，3DFabric 將補充我們的先進技術，以釋放客戶的創新能力。

We expect revenue from our back-end services, which including both advanced packaging and testing, to grow at a rate slightly above the corporate average in the next few years.

我們預計未來幾年後端服務（包括先進封裝和測試）的收入將以略高於企業平均的速度成長。

Now let me turn the microphone over to Wendell.

現在讓我把麥克風交給溫德爾。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

Let me start by making some comments on our profitability.

首先讓我對我們的盈利能力發表一些評論。

Our third quarter gross margin exceeded the high end of our guidance, to reach 53.4%, mainly as we saw a much higher-than-expected overall capacity utilization rate in the third quarter.

我們第三季的毛利率超過了我們指導的上限，達到53.4%，主要是因為我們看到第三季的整體產能利用率遠高於預期。

That helped to offset the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 5-nanometer technology.

這有助於抵消我們 5 奈米技術最初提升帶來的利潤稀釋。

We have just guided fourth quarter gross margin to decline by 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 52.5% at the midpoint primarily due to the margin dilution from the continued steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer and a less-favorable foreign exchange rate in the fourth quarter.

We have just guided fourth quarter gross margin to decline by 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 52.5% at the midpoint primarily due to the margin dilution from the continued steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer and a less-favorable foreign exchange rate in the fourth四分之一.

Looking to 2021, we expect the strong ramp of N5 to contribute a higher percentage of revenue, as compared to 2020.

展望 2021 年，我們預計 N5 的強勁成長將比 2020 年貢獻更高的營收百分比。

The yield rate of N5 continues to improve.

N5的良率持續提高。

Similar to prior nodes, we forecast N5's gross margin to take 7 or 8 quarters to reach the corporate average level.

與先前的節點類似，我們預計N5的毛利率需要7或8個季度才能達到企業平均。

Thus, N5 is expected to dilute our gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points for the full year of 2021.

因此，N5 預計將導致我們 2021 年全年的毛利率下降約 2 至 3 個百分點。

As a reminder, the following 6 factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, cost reduction, capacity utilization, technology mix as well as foreign exchange rate.

提醒一下，以下6個因素決定了台積電的獲利能力：領先的技術開發與提升、定價、成本降低、產能利用率、技術組合以及外匯。

Taking all these factors into consideration, we believe a long-term gross margin of above 50% is achievable.

綜合考慮這些因素，我們認為長期毛利率在50%以上是可以實現的。

Now let me talk about our capital budget for this year.

現在我來談談我們今年的資本預算。

Our business outlook is supported by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced technologies and specialty technology solutions, driven by the industry megatrends of 5G and HPC-related applications.

在 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的行業大趨勢的推動下，對行業領先的先進技術和專業技術解決方案的強勁需求支撐了我們的業務前景。

In order to meet this demand and support our customers' capacity needs, we now expect our full year 2020 CapEx to be about USD 17 billion.

為了滿足這項需求並支援客戶的容量需求，我們現在預計 2020 年全年資本支出約為 170 億美元。

Now I will make some comments on our corporate bond issuances and capital structure.

下面我就我們公司債的發行和資本結構做一些評論。

The multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications are expected to continue to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年繼續推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

Given the macroeconomic uncertainties this year, a current low interest rate environment and ability to diversify our funding sources, TSMC's Board of Directors has so far approved the issuance of TWD 120 billion in NT dollar-denominated corporate bonds and $4 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds.

鑑於今年宏觀經濟的不確定性、當前的低利率環境以及資金來源多元化的能力，台積電董事會目前已批准發行1,200億新台幣計價的公司債和40億美元的美元計價的公司債。

Year-to-date, we have issued TWD 89.5 billion in NT dollar-denominated and $4 billion in U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds with favorable pricing terms.

今年迄今，我們以優惠的定價條件發行了 895 億新台幣和 40 億美元的美元計價公司債。

With our solid financial performance, strong balance sheet and cash position and capacity to take on debt, we are able to aggressively invest in our future to enhance our technologies and capabilities.

憑藉我們穩健的財務表現、強勁的資產負債表和現金狀況以及承擔債務的能力，我們能夠積極投資於我們的未來，以增強我們的技術和能力。

This enables us to continue to outgrow the semiconductor industry through the cycles.

這使我們能夠在各個週期中繼續超越半導體產業。

With our disciplined capital management, we remain committed to sustainable cash dividends on both annual and quarterly basis.

憑藉嚴格的資本管理，我們仍然致力於每年和季度的可持續現金股利。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Questions will be taken in the order in which they were received.

（操作員說明）問題將依照收到的順序進行處理。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

So now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?

接線員，我們可以接聽線路上的第一個呼叫者嗎？

The first caller on the line is Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

線路上的第一個來電者是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Congratulations on great quarter.

恭喜這個偉大的季度。

My first question is on CapEx and capital intensity.

我的第一個問題是關於資本支出和資本強度。

It looks like, this year, we will come in around 36%, 37% capital intensity.

看起來，今年我們的資本密集度將達到 36%、37% 左右。

Could we talk a little bit about how we should think about capital intensity and absolute CapEx as well going -- looking forward, at least on a directional basis?

我們能否談談我們應該如何考慮資本密集度和絕對資本支出——展望未來，至少在方向性基礎上？

It seems like the investment cycle is still going to be very much intact going into next year, also looking at some of the financial options in terms of bond rates and et cetera, that TSMC has undertaken.

進入明年，投資週期似乎仍然完好無損，同時考慮台積電已採取的債券利率等方面的一些金融選擇。

That is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is on N5.

我的第二個問題是關於N5的。

I think in previous calls we have indicated that, while N5 will be a long and large node, it may not have the same number of tapeouts as N7 has had, which is probably historical high.

我認為在之前的電話會議中我們已經表明，雖然 N5 將是一個又長又大的節點，但它的流片數量可能不會與 N7 相同，這可能是歷史最高水平。

Is our view changing on N5?

我們對 N5 的看法是否正在改變？

Could we talk a little bit about will N5 exceed N7 in terms of wafer capacity as well as wafer revenue in the next 2 years or so?

能否談談未來兩年左右N5的晶圓產能和晶圓營收是否會超過N7？

Okay, Gokul, thank you very much.

好的，Gokul，非常感謝你。

We'll take your questions one by one.

我們將一一解答您的問題。

Please allow me to summarize your question.

請容許我總結一下您的問題。

Your first question relates to our CapEx and capital intensity.

您的第一個問題與我們的資本支出和資本強度有關。

You point out that -- with the guidance that our capital intensity this year, in your estimation, is probably around 36% to 37%.

您指出，根據您的估計，我們今年的資本密集度可能約為 36% 至 37%。

So your question is how should we think about CapEx and capital intensity in the next few years.

所以你的問題是我們應該如何考慮未來幾年的資本支出和資本強度。

If we cannot give a quantitative number directionally, how do we see CapEx and capital intensity?

如果我們不能定向給出一個量化數字，我們如何看待資本支出和資本密集度？

And how does this tie in with our recent things like -- such as bond issuances and fundraising?

這與我們最近的事情（例如債券發行和籌款）有何關聯？

How does that factor in?

這是如何影響的？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Maybe CFO Wendell can address.

也許財務長溫德爾可以發表演說。

Okay, yes.

好吧，是的。

Gokul, our capital intensity, as you are right, this year will be lower than 40%.

Gokul，我們的資本密集度，正如你所言，今年將低於 40%。

In the next several years, longer term, we expect the capital intensity to be around mid-30 percentage point.

未來幾年，長期來看，我們預期資本密集度將在30個百分點點左右。

However, having said that, there may be years where capital intensity is higher if we see the strong demand for our technologies or capacity and we decide to invest.

然而，話雖如此，如果我們看到對我們的技術或產能的強勁需求並決定投資，那麼未來幾年資本密集度可能會更高。

Okay.

好的。

And then your second question, Gokul, please allow me to summarize again, is regarding to our 5-nanometer that we have said that it's a long and large node but that we -- the number of tapeouts of N5 versus N7 may be lower.

然後你的第二個問題，Gokul，請允許我再次總結一下，是關於我們的5 奈米，我們已經說過它是一個又長又大的節點，但我們- N5 的流片數量可能比N7 更少。

So your question is can N5 exceed N7.

所以你的問題是N5能超過N7嗎？

Do we believe 5-nanometer can be a bigger node than 7 in terms of revenue and capacity?

我們是否相信 5 奈米節點在收入和產能方面可以成為比 7 奈米節點更大的節點？

Well, let me say that we don't comment on how many tapeouts, so far, but we continue to see strong tapeout activities at N5 from both HPC and smartphone applications.

好吧，我要說的是，到目前為止，我們不會評論有多少流片，但我們繼續看到 N5 的 HPC 和智慧型手機應用程式都有強勁的流片活動。

And revenue for this year, we just mentioned, is 8% of the wafer revenue, and next year, it will be even higher than -- close to -- or 20%, something like that.

我們剛才提到，今年的收入佔晶圓收入的 8%，明年，它甚至會高於——接近——或 20%，類似的數字。

The exact number, we are still not able to comment, but I can assure you that our 5-nanometer family will be another big and long-lasting node for TSMC.

確切的數字，我們還無法發表評論，但我可以向您保證，我們的 5 奈米系列將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Next one, we have Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

下一位是瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Okay, yes.

好吧，是的。

My first question, I wanted to ask on Wendell.

我的第一個問題，我想問溫德爾。

You raised the gross margin.

您提高了毛利率。

Originally it was 50%.

原本是50%。

Could you discuss now where you're saying it could be above 50%, the factors driving that change?

您現在能否討論一下您所說的可能超過 50% 的情況以及推動這項變更的因素？

And could you clarify on the 2- to 3-point impact on 5-nanometer?

您能否澄清一下對 5 奈米的 2 到 3 點影響？

I think you already have that impact, so does that imply for next year pretty similar to the type of gross margin you're running now or potentially even better?

我認為您已經產生了這種影響，那麼這是否意味著明年的毛利率與您現在的毛利率類型非常相似，甚至可能更好？

Okay, Randy, I'll summarize your question.

好的，蘭迪，我會總結你的問題。

Your first question is in regards to, I believe, our gross margin and long-term gross margin.

我認為，你的第一個問題是關於我們的毛利率和長期毛利率。

I think you're asking that we raised our target, but I think we -- as Wendell said, 50% is achievable for us, but you're also asking as part of that the dilution from 5-nanometer.

我認為您是在要求我們提高目標，但我認為我們——正如溫德爾所說，50% 對我們來說是可以實現的，但您也要求從 5 奈米開始進行稀釋。

How will that impact our gross margin next year?

這將如何影響我們明年的毛利率？

And where should we, I guess, be thinking about gross margin for 2021?

我想，我們應該在哪裡考慮 2021 年的毛利率？

Okay.

好的。

Randy, maybe I -- let me answer this like this.

蘭迪，也許我──讓我這樣回答這個問題。

We have a very high gross margins in the third quarter, and we believe we will continue have a pretty high margin in the fourth quarter.

我們第三季的毛利率非常高，我們相信第四季我們將繼續保持相當高的利潤率。

And main reason is that we are enjoying a very high utilization across almost all the nodes at this moment, but the high -- very high utilization may not continue forever, so our long-term growth target or long-term growth goal for our gross margin continues to be above 50%.

主要原因是，我們目前幾乎所有節點都享受著非常高的利用率，但是這種高——非常高的利用率可能不會永遠持續下去，所以我們的長期成長目標或我們總的長期成長目標利潤率持續維持在50%以上。

In terms of dilution from N5, we see the dilution of N5 for next year to be around 2 to 3 percentage point, similar to previous nodes.

就 N5 的稀釋度而言，我們預計明年 N5 的稀釋度約為 2 至 3 個百分點，與先前的節點類似。

And remember that the N5 will account for a much bigger percentage of our revenue next year.

請記住，明年 N5 將占我們收入的更大比例。

So as we ramp up quickly, the dilution will continue to exist.

因此，當我們快速增長時，稀釋將繼續存在。

However, we are still expecting that it will reach the corporate margin by -- in 7 to 8 quarters.

然而，我們仍然預計它將在 7 到 8 個季度內達到企業利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

No, great.

不，太好了。

I misunderstood.

我誤會了。

I thought I heard the word "above" for 50%.

我想我聽過「以上」這個詞的人有 50%。

Second question, on the recent U.S. restriction on SMIC.

第二個問題，關於近期美國對中芯國際的限制。

I'm curious if you're seeing any additional diversification or increase for business.

我很好奇您是否看到任何額外的多元化或業務成長。

And given they're more on the mature nodes, how you're positioned, if you are seeing those, to take on business on the mature nodes.

鑑於它們更多地位於成熟節點上，如果您看到這些，您將如何定位以在成熟節點上開展業務。

Okay, Randy, let me just summarize your second question.

好的，蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。

Your second question is regards to the recent restrictions on SMIC.

你的第二個問題是關於近期對中芯國際的限制。

And Randy is wondering whether we are seeing any types of diversification or inquiries from customers in regards to business and especially at the mature nodes.

蘭迪想知道我們是否看到任何類型的多元化或客戶對業務的詢問，特別是在成熟節點。

Well, Randy, let me answer the question.

好吧，蘭迪，讓我回答這個問題。

Actually we are still evaluating the impact to the semiconductor industry and the -- due to the ban on SMIC, but let me say that our capacity planning and all our CapEx continue based on the long-term demand profile.

實際上，我們仍在評估對半導體產業的影響以及由於對中芯國際的禁令而產生的影響，但我要說的是，我們的產能規劃和所有資本支出將繼續基於長期需求狀況。

That is underpinned by the industry megatrends such as 5G-related and HPC application, all right?

這是由5G相關和HPC應用等產業大趨勢所支持的，好嗎？

Does that answer your question?

這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Or maybe just one quick.

或者也許只是快一點。

But for the mature nodes, which are running tight across the industry, just if it's so that there's an incremental surge, how well could you handle incremental business from this type of piece if it were to come through?

但對於成熟的節點，全行業運行緊張，如果增量激增的話，你能處理好這樣的增量業務嗎？

So Randy is asking, if we were to see a surge in demand at the mature nodes, how ready -- or do we have capacity to take on or handle this type of surge demand?

因此，蘭迪問，如果我們要看到成熟節點的需求激增，我們準備得如何——或者我們是否有能力承擔或處理這種類型的激增需求？

Well, we continue to work with our customer dynamically and we try our best to meet their demand.

好吧，我們繼續與客戶動態合作，並盡力滿足他們的需求。

That's all I can say for today.

這就是我今天能說的。

Yes.

是的。

The next one is Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一位是來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is I think, besides the higher-than-usual inventory, which may be a new norm because of this supply chain year of disruption, how -- I wonder.

我的第一個問題是，我想，除了庫存高於平常（由於今年供應鏈中斷，這可能成為一種新常態）之外，我想知道如何做到這一點。

I'm curious about how does TSMC assess customers' overbooking or pulling behavior and the magnitude.

我很好奇台積電如何評估顧客的超額預訂或拉貨行為以及幅度。

In particular, based on the recent smartphone OEMs' aggressive procurement about -- assuming Huawei is going to be there next year, how did you assess that, kind of the potential overbuild inventory risk that may potentially lead to a destocking correction sometime next year?

特別是，基於最近智慧型手機原始設備製造商的積極採購——假設華為明年將進入那裡，您如何評估潛在的庫存過剩風險，這種風險可能會導致明年某個時候的去庫存調整？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, Sebastian, let me repeat or try to summarize your question.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安，讓我重複或嘗試總結您的問題。

Your question is basically related to the inventory.

你的問題基本上與庫存有關。

And you want to ask how does TSMC assess the risk that there is overbooking in light of the restrictions on Huawei.

你想問台積電如何評估華為的限制導致超賣的風險？

And therefore, what type of levels or magnitude of inventory overbuild is there?

因此，庫存過剩的水平或程度如何？

And does this create the risk of inventory correction sometime next year?

這是否會帶來明年某個時候庫存調整的風險？

Well, let me share with you our view on these inventory-related issues.

好吧，讓我跟大家分享一下我們對這些庫存相關問題的看法。

First, I want to say that, due to the pandemic, actually the digital transformation has been accelerated, and that create a demand on 5G and HPC-related products.

首先我想說的是，由於疫情的影響，數位轉型實際上加速了，這對5G和HPC相關產品產生了需求。

And so for the long term -- longer-term basis, we do expect our customers' overall inventory to remain above the seasonal level for a longer period of time, majority partly because of they have some concern on industry's supply chain security and due to the uncertainties.

因此，從長遠來看，我們確實預計客戶的整體庫存將在較長一段時間內保持在季節性水平之上，部分原因是他們對行業供應鏈安全有所擔憂，並且由於的不確定性。

And so that what -- the inventory, high-level inventory, will sustain, continue for a longer period of time.

因此，庫存、高水準庫存將維持、持續更長的時間。

That, we can say that.

那，我們可以這麼說。

Okay, Sebastian, do you have a second...

好吧，塞巴斯蒂安，你還有時間嗎？

Yes, all right.

是的，好吧。

Sorry.

對不起。

Yes, okay, all right.

是的，好吧，好吧。

Anyway, but that isn't actually what I'm looking for, but anyway.

無論如何，但這實際上不是我正在尋找的，但無論如何。

And my second question is on the HPC business.

我的第二個問題是關於HPC業務。

Apparently, I think the -- C.C., you mentioned in the prepared remark that we'll see a lot of the growth this quarter and also continued strength next quarter and driven by the accelerating digital transformation.

顯然，我認為——C.C.，您在準備好的評論中提到，在加速數位轉型的推動下，我們將在本季度看到大量增長，並在下個季度繼續保持強勁勢頭。

You just said it at -- led by the pandemic and work-from-home demand like to stay for longer.

你剛才說過──在疫情和在家工作需求的帶動下，人們希望待更久。

And also to continue to -- share gain from TSMC against IDM.

並且繼續分享台積電相對 IDM 的收益。

And when do you expect your HPC revenue exposure to cross over with smartphone revenue percentage?

您預計您的 HPC 收入何時會與智慧型手機收入百分比交叉？

Possible to see that by end of next year or 2022?

到明年年底或 2022 年可能會看到這一點嗎？

Okay, Sebastian, let me just summarize your question, which is regards to our HPC platform business.

好的，Sebastian，讓我總結一下您的問題，這是關於我們的 HPC 平台業務的。

You point out that there is the trends of the accelerating digital transformation and the work from home and also market share gains versus IDM.

您指出數位轉型和在家工作加速的趨勢，以及相對於 IDM 的市佔率成長。

So you want to know when do we see our HPC platform revenue crossing over with the smartphone or others, to become the primary.

因此，您想知道我們的 HPC 平台收入何時會與智慧型手機或其他平台交叉，成為主要收入。

Okay, let me answer the question.

好吧，我來回答一下問題。

We do see HPC platforms growth rate is higher in among our 4 platform, which is smartphone, HPC, automotive and IoT.

我們確實看到 HPC 平台的成長率在我們的 4 個平台中較高，即智慧型手機、HPC、汽車和物聯網。

And in the next few years, we continue to expect what we forecast, that HPCs growth will be higher than the corporate level.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們繼續預期 HPC 的成長將高於企業水準。

When it will cross over, I don't make any comment right now.

當它交叉時，我現在不發表任何評論。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Next one, we have Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位是高盛的陸小龍。

So I want to ask about the 5G penetration rate.

所以我想問一下5G的普及率。

So what is the latest forecast for the total smartphone growth and 5G penetration rate in 2020?

那麼2020年智慧型手機總量成長和5G普及率的最新預測是什麼呢？

And maybe a little bit of color on 2021 as well.

或許 2021 年也會有一些色彩。

So we also see that some of the telco is slowing down their 5G base installation.

因此，我們也看到一些電信公司正在放慢 5G 基礎設施的安裝速度。

What kind of impact we see at this moment?

此時此刻我們看到了什麼樣的影響？

Okay, Bruce, your question is regards to 5G and smartphones.

好的，布魯斯，你的問題是關於 5G 和智慧型手機的。

You want to know what is the smartphone growth and 5G penetration rate for 2020 as well as 2021 and then in light of the telecoms potentially slowing down the deployment, correct?

您想知道 2020 年和 2021 年的智慧型手機成長率和 5G 滲透率是多少，然後鑑於電信可能會減慢部署速度，對嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Okay.

好的。

All right, let me answer the question.

好吧，我來回答一下問題。

We continue to expect the faster penetration of 5G smartphone, as compared to 4G.

與 4G 相比，我們仍然預期 5G 智慧型手機的普及速度會更快。

And for this year, we still forecast a high-teens penetration rate, and next year, even higher, much higher.

今年，我們仍然預測青少年的滲透率會很高，明年甚至會更高，更高。

Let me say that.

讓我這麼說吧。

And that's all we have today.

這就是我們今天所擁有的一切。

And any impact from the telcos business as well?

電信業務也有影響嗎？

I think all countries and all regions are preparing to build up the infrastructure right now.

我想現在各國、各地區都在準備基礎建設。

And I believe, next year, even not 100% completed, but all the region or the countries will have a lot of 5G phone being introduced, and that create a higher-percentage penetration rate.

我相信，明年即使不是100%完成，但所有地區或國家都會有大量的5G手機被推出，從而創造更高的滲透率。

Okay, I understand.

好吧，我明白了。

My next question is that I'm a little bit surprised that China revenue contribution only increased slightly from 22% to 23% in third quarter.

我的下一個問題是，令我有點驚訝的是，第三季中國的營收貢獻僅從 22% 略有上升至 23%。

So which region will we see the strongest growth in fourth quarter?

那麼第四季哪個地區的成長將最為強勁？

Okay, Bruce, your question is regards to our revenue by geography, and you want to know, for the fourth quarter, which region will contribute the most growth, in the fourth quarter.

好的，布魯斯，你的問題是關於我們按地理位置劃分的收入，你想知道第四季度哪個地區將貢獻最大的成長。

Okay, Bruce, we're not prepared to comment on geographic allocation among revenues in the fourth quarter.

好吧，布魯斯，我們不准備對第四季度收入的地域分配發表評論。

I can share with you that we expect the platforms that will grow in the fourth quarter will be smartphone and automotive, and the other 2 will likely to be down.

我可以與您分享的是，我們預計第四季度成長的平台將是智慧型手機和汽車，其他兩個平台可能會下降。

We have Sunny Lin from UBS.

我們有來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

So my first question is on 5-nanometer demand.

所以我的第一個問題是關於 5 奈米的需求。

So in the next 2 to 3 years, what do you think revenues for it could be by smartphone, HPC, et cetera?

那麼在未來 2 到 3 年內，您認為智慧型手機、HPC 等的收入會是多少？

And do you think the mix could be a bit different from 7-nanometer?

您認為這種混合可能與 7 奈米不同嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

Can you repeat your question, Sunny?

桑尼，你能重複你的問題嗎？

You broke up a little bit.

你們分手了一點點。

Sure, sure, no problem.

當然，當然，沒問題。

Sorry about that.

對此感到抱歉。

So I wonder, for 5-nanometer demand in the next 2 to 3 years, what does the management think of the revenue mix?

所以我想知道，對於未來2到3年的5奈米需求，管理階層如何看待收入組合？

Could be by smartphone, HPC, et cetera.

可以透過智慧型手機、HPC 等實現。

And will the product mix be a bit different from 7-nanometer?

產品結構與7奈米會有些不同嗎？

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

Let me summarize.

讓我總結一下。

Thank you, Sunny.

謝謝你，桑尼。

Your question is regards to 5-nanometer.

你的問題是關於5奈米的。

And then when we look out over the next 3 years, how do we see the demand of 5-nanometer, the mix, changing in terms of smartphone, HPC, different platforms?

然後，當我們展望未來 3 年時，我們如何看待 5 奈米的需求、混合、智慧型手機、HPC、不同平台的變化？

And then how does this compare to 7-nanometer?

那麼這與 7 奈米相比如何呢？

Correct?

正確的？

That's right.

這是正確的。

We don't break it down or disclose the platform mix of certain nodes, but we can share with you, as C.C. just mentioned, in the next several years, we expect HPC to be the largest contributor of our growth.

我們不會對其進行分解或披露某些節點的平台組合，但我們可以與您分享，正如 C.C.剛才提到，在未來幾年，我們預計 HPC 將成為我們成長的最大貢獻者。

So that should give you some idea.

所以這應該會給你一些想法。

And these guys use advanced technologies.

這些人使用先進的技術。

Sure.

當然。

Got it.

知道了。

And my second question is that, for this year, a key part of your growth in smartphones is driven by higher silicon content for 5G and your share gains, so I wonder if you could walk us through how your average silicon content in smartphone may trend into 2021 and 2022.

我的第二個問題是，今年智慧型手機成長的關鍵部分是由5G 更高的矽含量和您的份額收益推動的，所以我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下智慧型手機中平均矽含量的趨勢進入 2021 年和 2022 年。

Okay.

好的。

So Sunny, your second question is regards to the silicon content in 5G phones.

Sunny，你的第二個問題是關於5G手機中的矽含量。

Of -- the silicon content increase in 5G phone, along with share gain, is contributing to our smartphone growth this year, so she wants to know what is the silicon content outlook for 2021 and '22.

5G 手機中矽含量的增加以及份額的增長正在推動我們今年智慧型手機的成長，因此她想知道 2021 年和 22 年的矽含量前景如何。

This is pretty hard for me to answer because I did -- I cannot release all the information I got from my customer, but let me say that on the average the 5G phone have about 30% to 40% more silicon content, as compared with 4G.

這對我來說很難回答，因為我確實這麼做了——我無法公佈我從客戶那裡得到的所有信息，但我想說的是，與傳統手機相比，5G 手機的矽含量平均高出約30% 到40%。

Did that give you some kind of idea?

這給了你一些想法嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So I have a very quick follow-up.

所以我有一個非常快速的跟進。

Wonder if you could give us some color regarding your expectation of your market share for smartphone in the next 2, 3 years.

想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對未來 2、3 年智慧型手機市場份額的期望。

So Sunny is asking whether we can give some comment on the market share, our market share, in 5G phones the next 2 to 3 years.

所以Sunny問我們是否可以對未來2到3年5G手機的市場份額，我們的市場份額發表一些評論。

No.

不。

It's not very appropriate for me to give some kind of estimate right now, but let me say that, as long as we have a technology leadership position, we are very confident that we are going to have a high market share.

我現在給出某種估計還不太合適，但我要說的是，只要我們擁有技術領先地位，我們就非常有信心擁有很高的市場份額。

Okay?

好的？

Sure, got it.

當然，明白了。

Next, we have Roland Shu from Citigroup.

接下來是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

My first question is can you update on the status of your license applications for shipments to Huawei.

我的第一個問題是，您能否更新一下向華為發貨的許可證申請的狀態。

When do we expect to receive approval from U.S. government?

我們預計什麼時候才能獲得美國政府的批准？

And also, does your 4Q revenue forecast include any wafer shipment to Huawei?

另外，您的第四季營收預測是否包括向華為出貨的晶圓？

This is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, Roland.

好吧，羅蘭。

So your question is regards to -- he wants an update of our license application status regarding Huawei.

所以你的問題是──他想要更新我們有關華為的許可證申請狀態。

And he also wants to know, does our fourth quarter guidance include any shipments to Huawei?

他還想知道，我們第四季的指導是否包括向華為的出貨量？

Roland, we are complying fully with regulations.

羅蘭，我們完全遵守規定。

And so -- and we also notice that there is a report saying that TSMC got the license.

因此，我們也注意到有報告指出台積電獲得了許可。

We are not going to comment on this unfounded speculation and we also don't want to comment on our status right now.

我們不會對這種毫無根據的猜測發表評論，我們現在也不想對我們的狀態發表評論。

For the 4Q shipment to Huawei, no.

對於第四季向華為的出貨量來說，沒有。

The ban, the regulation already say that up to September 17...

禁令、規定已經說截止到9月17日…

15...

15...

September 15, okay, same.

9 月 15 日，好吧，一樣。

Okay, okay.

好吧，好吧。

Okay, my second question is, how is the pricing pressure across all technology nodes, so far?

好的，我的第二個問題是，到目前為止，所有技術節點的定價壓力如何？

Some of your foundry peers are considering to raise with ASP given a very high utilization at 8-inch fab.

鑑於 8 吋晶圓廠的利用率非常高，一些代工廠同行正在考慮透過平均售價籌集資金。

So were you considering to follow to raise the pricing of 8-inch or other mature technology nodes?

那麼您是否考慮跟隨提高8英寸或其他成熟技術節點的定價？

Okay, Roland, let -- thank you.

好的，羅蘭，讓－謝謝你。

So your second question is regards to pricing pressure.

所以你的第二個問題是關於定價壓力。

Your note is that some of the foundry peers are considering to raise the 8-inch wafer price.

您注意到，部分晶圓代工廠商正在考慮提高8吋晶圓價格。

So you want to know, does TSMC plan to raise our 8-inch wafer pricing or also raise our pricing on the mature nodes?

那你想知道，台積電是否打算提高我們的8吋晶圓定價，還是也提高我們成熟節點的定價？

Let me answer the question.

讓我來回答這個問題。

The answer, the big answer, is no.

答案，最重要的答案，是否定的。

We continue to work with customers, and customer are our partners.

我們持續與客戶合作，客戶是我們的合作夥伴。

So for short-term supply shortage, we are -- definitely we are not using this kind of opportunity to raise our price.

因此，對於短期供應短缺，我們絕對不會利用這種機會來提高價格。

Our wafer price -- we are selling our values, our service to our customer, that including the technology, delivery, quality, everything.

我們的晶圓價格——我們向客戶出售我們的價值觀和服務，包括技術、交付、品質等一切。

Certainly, TSMC is working with all the customer and view them as partners, and so we don't using this opportunity to raise our wafer price.

當然，台積電正在與所有客戶合作，並將他們視為合作夥伴，因此我們不會利用這個機會來提高我們的晶圓價格。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Next, we're having Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

接下來請來來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a question on your long-term capacity planning.

我剛才有一個關於你們長期容量規劃的問題。

I mean you've laid out the view that we're going to see some structural tightness for the next couple years in foundries potentially.

我的意思是，您已經提出了這樣的觀點，即未來幾年鑄造廠可能會出現一些結構性緊張。

And I'm just wondering if you see -- you have a very strong growth position in HPC, but you still have a very low market share in like x86 or PC and servers broadly.

我只是想知道您是否看到，您在 HPC 領域擁有非常強勁的成長地位，但在 x86 或 PC 和伺服器等領域，您的市佔率仍然非常低。

I'm just wondering.

我只是想知道。

If we do see Intel looking to outsource major CPU lines to foundry, it could be a large onetime boost to the industry, to the foundry industry, so would TSMC be in a meaningful -- would you be able to meaningfully support Intel's needs if there was a big onetime outsourcing?

如果我們確實看到英特爾希望將主要CPU 產品線外包給代工廠，這可能會對該行業、代工廠行業產生巨大的一次性推動，那麼台積電是否會有意義——如果有的話，您是否能夠有意義地支持英特爾的需求是一次大型的一次性外包嗎？

And would you be prepared to take capital intensity to much higher levels should the opportunity arise?

如果機會出現，您是否準備好將資本密集度提高到更高水準？

Okay, Brett, let me try to summarize your question.

好的，布雷特，讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

Your question basically is premised around our long-term capacity planning and pointing out that there's a structural tightness in foundry.

你的問題基本上是以我們的長期產能規劃為前提的，並指出代工廠存在結構性張力。

And we TSMC has a strong growth position.

而我們台積電擁有強勁的成長地位。

So your question specifically relates to x86 and Intel.

所以你的問題特別與 x86 和 Intel 有關。

If Intel were to outsource in a -- to foundry, your premise is that this could be a onetime, big outsourcing opportunity.

如果英特爾要外包給代工廠，你的前提是這可能是個巨大的外包機會。

And so how would we prepare or handle for this?

那我們將如何準備或處理這個問題呢？

Well, let me say that we do not comment on the specific customers, nor on the specific product, but let me say our CapEx and capacity planning is based on the long-term demand profile, that underpinned by the industry, the megatrend to meet our customers' demand.

好吧，我要說的是，我們不會對特定客戶或特定產品發表評論，但我要說的是，我們的資本支出和產能規劃是基於長期需求概況，以行業為基礎，滿足大趨勢我們客戶的需求。

And Intel is one of our important customers and we continue to work with them.

英特爾是我們的重要客戶之一，我們將繼續與他們合作。

Do...

做...

Okay.

好的。

And maybe just a follow-up regarding your capacity plans over the near term.

也許只是關於您近期容量計劃的後續行動。

Are you planning to add any capacity at the mature nodes, maybe not so much 8-inch but certainly sort of 28-nanometer or even 16-nanometer?

您是否計劃在成熟節點上增加任何容量，也許不是 8 英寸，但肯定是 28 奈米甚至 16 奈米？

And do you foresee putting any customers on allocation given the backdrop with tightness at the moment?

鑑於目前資金緊張的背景，您是否預計會對任何客戶進行分配？

Okay.

好的。

So Brett, your second question is regards to our capacity plans in the near term, specifically at some of the mature nodes like 28- and 16-nanometer.

Brett，你的第二個問題是關於我們近期的產能計劃，特別是在一些成熟的節點，如 28 奈米和 16 奈米。

Are we planning to add capacity?

我們計劃增加容量嗎？

And with the tightness, are customers on allocation?

由於供應緊張，客戶是否可以進行分配？

Well, again, let me say that we plan our capacity to meet the customers' demand.

好吧，我再說一遍，我們計劃我們的產能來滿足客戶的需求。

Whether it's leading-edge, whether mature node or specialties, we always work with customer dynamically and also work with them closely so to plan out capacity.

無論是尖端技術，無論是成熟節點或專業技術，我們始終與客戶動態合作，緊密合作，規劃產能。

And definitely today there is some shortage, but we are doing our best to serve our customers.

今天肯定存在一些短缺，但我們正在盡最大努力為我們的客戶提供服務。

Okay, thank you, Brett.

好的，謝謝你，布雷特。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位提問者是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

My first question is about your 2-nanometer progression because I think, a couple of weeks ago, there was a news talking about you may see the 2-nanometer in mass production in 2024.

我的第一個問題是關於 2 奈米製程的進展，因為我認為幾週前有消息稱 2 奈米製程可能會在 2024 年實現量產。

So I just wanted to get company's clarification about your progress here, maybe your technology road map and that realistic timing for the mass production.

所以我只是想讓公司澄清你們的進展情況，也許你們的技術路線圖以及大規模生產的實際時間表。

Okay.

好的。

So Charlie's first question is in regards to our 2-nanometer.

查理的第一個問題是關於我們的 2 奈米。

He says, according to news reports, that the production is going to begin in 2024, so he wants to know whether we can share the technology road map requirements and the timing of our 2-nanometer.

他表示，根據新聞報道，生產將於 2024 年開始，因此他想知道我們是否可以分享技術路線圖要求以及我們 2 奈米的時間表。

Charlie, let me say, frankly, we are not ready to make any comment on the 2-nanometer yet, all right?

Charlie，讓我說，坦白說，我們還沒有準備好對 2 奈米做出任何評論，好嗎？

Okay, yes, but there seems to be some comments from your technology forum, so any reason why you can't disclose that to investors, the timing for the year?

好的，是的，但是你們的技術論壇似乎有一些評論，所以你們有什麼理由不能向投資者透露這一點，今年的時間安排？

No.

不。

I think, Charlie, all we have disclosed about our 2-nanometer is the location, which will be in Hsinchu.

我想，查理，我們所透露的關於我們的 2 奈米的只是地點，它將在新竹中。

We have not commented on the technology specifications, the timing or anything beyond that.

我們還沒有對技術規格、時間安排或其他任何事情發表評論。

So that is you -- as you said, according to your reading the news.

這就是你——正如你所說，根據你讀到的新聞。

That is not TSMC's comment.

這不是台積電的評論。

And C.C. said we are not prepared to comment on 2-nanometer.

還有 C.C.表示我們不准備對2奈米發表評論。

Okay, okay, okay, no problem at all.

好吧好吧，完全沒問題。

And my second question is maybe to Wendell, about the gross margin trend follow-up.

我的第二個問題可能是問溫德爾的，關於毛利率趨勢的後續。

So based on your current depreciation table, when do you think that depreciation is going to peak in the coming years or coming quarters, at what point?

那麼，根據您目前的折舊表，您認為未來幾年或未來幾季折舊將在何時達到頂峰，在什麼時間點？

And also I think you mentioned that the new node brand is a key factor to the gross margin dilution, but I think 4-nanometer is part of the 5-nanometer family, right, so can we expect that in 2022 there's no -- not going to be any kind of margin dilution from the 4-nanometer?

而且我認為您提到新節點品牌是毛利率稀釋的關鍵因素，但我認為 4 奈米是 5 奈米系列的一部分，對吧，所以我們可以期望在 2022 年沒有 - 不4 奈米技術會造成任何形式的利潤稀釋嗎？

All right.

好的。

So Charlie, your second question is regards to depreciation and gross margin.

查理，你的第二個問題是關於折舊和毛利率的。

Charlie wants to know when do we expect depreciation to peak out on a quarterly or an annual basis.

查理想知道我們預計折舊率何時會達到季度或年度高峰。

And he also wants to know that would we expect dilution from 4-nanometer in 2022 given that 4-nanometer is an extension of our 5-nanometer.

他還想知道，鑑於 4 奈米是 5 奈米的延伸，我們預計 2022 年 4 奈米的產量是否會被稀釋。

Should there therefore not be dilution from 4-nanometer?

因此不應該對 4 奈米進行稀釋嗎？

Okay, Charlie.

好吧，查理。

The first questions, really difficult to answer because, if you continue to invest, you may not have a peak in depreciation just as, if you continue to have strong growth, you may not have a peak in your revenue.

第一個問題確實很難回答，因為如果你繼續投資，你的折舊可能不會達到峰值，就像如果你繼續強勁增長，你的收入可能不會達到峰值一樣。

So the second question, yes, we still expect that, N5 family, the gross margin to reach corporate average in about 7 or 8 quarters and which is sometime in 2022.

所以第二個問題，是的，我們仍然預計，N5 系列的毛利率將在大約 7 或 8 個季度內達到企業平均水平，也就是 2022 年的某個時候。

Great, all right.

太好了，好吧。

Right now we're having Laura Chen from KGI.

現在請來的是凱基證券 (KGI) 的勞拉·陳 (Laura Chen)。

Congratulations for the good result.

恭喜取得好成績。

My first question is regarding 3-nanometer.

我的第一個問題是關於 3 奈米的。

Can you give us update on current engagement?

您能為我們介紹一下當前參與情況的最新情況嗎？

And we know that C.C. just mentioned we will have risk production next year and mass production probably on second half 2020.

我們知道 C.C.剛才提到我們明年會進行風險生產，量產可能會在2020年下半年。

I'm just wondering.

我只是想知道。

Will the smartphone or HPC go first?

智慧型手機或 HPC 會先行嗎？

Okay, that's my first question.

好的，這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, so Laura, your first question is regards to our 3-nanometer.

好的，勞拉，你的第一個問題是關於我們的 3 奈米技術。

She wants to know what is the current engagement with customers.

她想知道當前與客戶的互動情況如何。

And then with the volume production targeted for second half 2022, is it going to be smartphone- or HPC-driven?

然後，預計 2022 年下半年實現量產，是智慧型手機驅動還是 HPC 驅動？

All right, let me answer the question first on the engaging with customer.

好吧，我先回答一下關於與客戶互動的問題。

We are engaging with more customer at N3, as compared with N5 and N7, at the similar stage, okay?

與N5和N7相比，在相似的階段，我們在N3接觸到了更多的客戶，好嗎？

So there is a lot of customers working with us.

所以有很多客戶與我們合作。

And now which one -- in the second half of 2022, which one will be the first product actually in smartphone and HPC applications?

現在哪一個 - 2022 年下半年，哪一個將成為智慧型手機和 HPC 應用中的第一個產品？

Both.

兩個都。

Okay.

好的。

And then my second question is about our supply chain equipment procurement plans.

我的第二個問題是關於我們的供應鏈設備採購計畫。

I think given our positive outlook and continuous CapEx, so do we plan to evaluate more local suppliers?

我認為鑑於我們積極的前景和持續的資本支出，我們是否計劃評估更多的本地供應商？

So I think -- given TSMC's leading position in the global foundry space, I think that's -- give a good position to lead the localization equipment.

因此，我認為，鑑於台積電在全球晶圓代工領域的領先地位，我認為，這將為領導在地化設備提供一個良好的位置。

So can you give us some color about what's your view on the -- to buy more equipment from the Taiwanese supplier or current status of total procurement percentage per year from Taiwanese vendors, something like that?

那麼您能否告訴我們您對從台灣供應商購買更多設備或每年從台灣供應商購買總百分比的現狀有何看法？

Okay, Laura.

好吧，勞拉。

So your second question is regards to our vendor and supply chain procurement strategy.

所以你的第二個問題是關於我們的供應商和供應鏈採購策略。

Your question is really will -- are we considering -- will we consider to use more local Taiwan suppliers?

你的問題是——我們是否會考慮——我們會考慮使用更多台灣本地供應商嗎？

Do we have any type of percentage breakdown or anything like that?

我們有任何類型的百分比細分或類似的東西嗎？

Correct?

正確的？

Yes, yes, correct.

是的，是的，正確。

Okay.

好的。

We develop the technology while we maintain the technology and the manufacturing based on the best performance and the best cost structure.

我們開發技術，同時根據最佳性能和最佳成本結構維護技術和製造。

So we did not put the where it came from.

所以我們沒有把它來自哪裡。

Or we did not put the regions into consideration, to be frank with you.

或者說，坦白說，我們沒有考慮到地區。

So the best technology, the best manufacturing cost is what we count.

所以最好的技術、最好的製造成本才是我們所重視的。

And so we don't have any certain percentage limitation on which area or -- the equipment came from, all right?

因此，我們對設備來自哪個地區或—沒有任何一定的百分比限制，好嗎？

Okay, does that answer your question, Laura?

好吧，這回答了你的問題嗎，蘿拉？

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Next one, we'd have Krish Sankar, Cowen and Company.

下一位是克里什桑卡 (Krish Sankar)、考恩 (Cowen) 及其公司。

Yes.

是的。

I have 2 of them.

我有 2 個。

First one is on the mature nodes, i.e., 28-nanometer and above.

第一個是成熟節點，即28奈米以上。

Not currently but over the next few years, how do you expect the revenues and wafer starts to trend on the mature nodes, especially as some of your customers start migrating to the leading edge?

目前不是，但在未來幾年，您預計成熟節點上的收入和晶圓開始趨勢如何，特別是當您的一些客戶開始遷移到領先優勢時？

And then my second question is, in the past, you've spoken about converting some 28-nanometer-plus capacity to 20-nanometer or so for IoT and other applications.

我的第二個問題是，在過去，您曾談到將一些 28 奈米以上的容量轉換為 20 奈米左右，以用於物聯網和其他應用。

Can you provide us an update on how this transition is going?

您能為我們提供有關此過渡進展的最新資訊嗎？

Okay, thank you, Krish.

好的，謝謝你，克里什。

Let me try to summarize your questions.

讓我試著總結一下您的問題。

Maybe I'll summarize the first one, and then we can summarize the second.

也許我會總結第一個，然後我們可以總結第二個。

Your first question is regards to our mature nodes, specifically 20-nanometer and above.

你的第一個問題是關於我們成熟的節點，特別是20奈米及以上的節點。

You want to know, in the next few years, what is the revenue outlook and also the demand or wafer starts outlook, over the next few years, especially as customers may start to migrate to more leading nodes.

您想知道未來幾年的收入前景以及需求或晶圓開工前景如何，特別是當客戶可能開始遷移到更多領先節點時。

What do we do at 28-nanometer and above?

在28納米及以上我們做什麼？

What is the outlook?

前景如何？

Well, let me answer the -- specifically on the 28-nanometer.

好吧，讓我回答一下——特別是關於 28 奈米的問題。

We continue to improve the technology.

我們不斷改進技術。

And now we offer 22-nanometer side, ultra-low power, and that's for IoT applications.

現在我們提供 22 奈米側、超低功耗，適用於物聯網應用。

And we also work with the customer to migrate their product from 65, 55, to 45, to 28 and to 22.

我們也與客戶合作，將他們的產品從 65、55 遷移到 45、28 和 22。

Today, the noding is not perfect yet, but we expect in 1 or 2 years, and then we expect the noding work greatly improved.

今天，點頭工作還不是很完善，但我們預計在一兩年內，然後我們預計點頭工作會有很大的改善。

And so to answer your question on all the mature node, we're still improving our technologies and we still expect the growth.

因此，為了回答您關於所有成熟節點的問題，我們仍在改進我們的技術，並且我們仍然期望成長。

Okay.

好的。

And I think, Krish, just to clarify, your -- the second question was in regards to 28.

我想，克里什，只是為了澄清一下，你的第二個問題是關於 28 的。

And your question was conversion to 20, but as C.C. said, we are converting 28 to 22, so hopefully, that also addressed your second question, all right?

你的問題是轉換為 20，但作為 C.C.說，我們正在將 28 轉換為 22，所以希望這也解決了您的第二個問題，好嗎？

Yes, it does.

是的，確實如此。

Next one, we're having Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.

下一位請來的是大和證券的 Rick Hsu。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, my first question, I just want to make a little clarification about your CapEx for this year.

好的，我的第一個問題，我只想對你們今年的資本支出做一些澄清。

I think Wendell said about it's going to be around USD 17 billion or it's going to be over USD 17 billion.

我認為溫德爾說過這將是 170 億美元左右或將超過 170 億美元。

Can I make -- can you clarify on this?

我可以──你能澄清一下嗎？

And also give us some, a little bit color about the CapEx for next year, please.

請給我們一些關於明年資本支出的資訊。

So your first question, to clarify, our 2020 CapEx.

所以你的第一個問題需要澄清一下，我們的 2020 年資本支出。

What -- is it about or above USD 17 billion?

大約或超過 170 億美元？

Yes, it's about USD 17 billion.

是的，大約是170億美元。

Yes, okay, yes...

是啊，好吧，是啊…

Yes.

是的。

For 2021 -- I'm sorry.

對於 2021 年——抱歉。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Your second questions is about 2021 CapEx.

您的第二個問題是關於 2021 年資本支出。

It's too early to discuss the 2021 CapEx at this moment, but as -- if we see strong demand and the -- we will make the investments because the CapEx investment in this year is always for the demand in the following years.

現在討論 2021 年的資本支出還為時過早，但如果我們看到強勁的需求，我們就會進行投資，因為今年的資本支出投資始終是為了滿足未來幾年的需求。

So if we see the following years have strong demand, we will invest.

因此，如果我們看到接下來的幾年有強勁的需求，我們就會投資。

All right.

好的。

I assume it's not second question.

我認為這不是第二個問題。

It's just a follow-up, right?

這只是一個後續，對吧？

Can I ask one more?

我可以再問一個嗎？

You -- sure.

你——當然。

Your second question, please.

請問你的第二個問題。

Okay.

好的。

So second question is about the inventory.

第二個問題是關於庫存的。

I think C.C. did mention that, right now because of the macro uncertainties, COVID-19, et cetera -- so customers intend to keep their inventories above seasonal for a longer period of time, but what if -- because -- unless uncertainty remains structural and it goes on forever.

我認為 C.C.確實提到，目前由於宏觀不確定性、COVID-19 等，因此客戶打算在較長一段時間內將庫存保持在季節性以上，但如果——因為——除非不確定性仍然是結構性的，並且它永遠持續下去。

Otherwise, one day, when uncertainty are removed, do you worry about your customer to unwind inventory and cause some business correction?

否則，有一天，當不確定性消除時，您是否擔心您的客戶會減少庫存並導致業務調整？

Okay, Rick.

好吧，瑞克。

So your second question is regards to inventory.

所以你的第二個問題是關於庫存的。

Although there is macro uncertainty and COVID-19 -- but someday, this will be over.

儘管存在宏觀不確定性和 COVID-19，但總有一天，這一切都會結束。

So does this worry us?

那麼這讓我們擔心嗎？

Will we see a sudden sharp correction or inventory drop as a result?

我們會因此看到突然的大幅調整或庫存下降嗎？

Okay, let me share with you again our view on inventory.

好吧，我再跟大家分享一下我們對庫存的看法。

In fact, we don't worry too much about it because of the -- as I said, now because of pandemic, the digital transformation has been accelerated, and that create a lot of new demand.

事實上，我們並不太擔心這個問題，因為正如我所說，現在因為大流行，數位轉型加速了，這創造了許多新的需求。

Let me say that.

讓我這麼說吧。

It looks like -- take for example now work from home.

看起來——以現在在家工作為例。

So now everybody buy a PC.

所以現在每個人都買一台電腦。

Every kid had to buy a PC.

每個孩子都必須買一台電腦。

And then just look at again on the 5G smartphones benefit.

然後再看看 5G 智慧型手機的好處。

There are advantages of the -- on the bandwidth and the speed and the low latency, everything, and people are going to need it in this digital transformation.

在頻寬、速度和低延遲等方面都有優勢，人們在數位轉型中將需要它。

And so even right now it's we expect the inventory is higher than historical high level, but the demand will pick up.

因此，即使現在我們預計庫存仍高於歷史高位，但需求將會回升。

And in next year was -- or the 2022, we are confident that demand will pick up.

明年，也就是 2022 年，我們有信心需求將會回升。

And so that minimize or mitigate the impact of the inventory correction that everybody has a doubt on their mind.

從而最大限度地減少或減輕每個人都心存疑慮的庫存調整的影響。

Okay?

好的？

Great.

偉大的。

Next one is Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一位是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes.

是的。

First one, if your customers are willing to have inventories above this average trend line, should we assume that your wafer shipment in the first half of 2021 and specifically Q1 would also follow a better-than-seasonal trend?

首先，如果您的客戶願意擁有高於該平均趨勢線的庫存，我們是否應該假設您在 2021 年上半年（特別是第一季）的晶圓出貨量也會遵循好於季節性的趨勢？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi's first question is regarding to basically our first quarter.

因此，邁赫迪的第一個問題基本上與我們的第一季有關。

If customers are willing to hold a higher level of inventory, should we assume that wafer shipments in the first quarter will also be much better?

如果客戶願意持有更高水準的庫存，我們是否應該假設第一季晶圓出貨量也會好得多？

We are going to share with you in the first investor conference, all right?

我們將在第一屆投資者大會上與大家分享，好嗎？

Right now we are not ready to make any comment on 2021, especially the first quarter.

目前我們不准備對 2021 年，特別是第一季發表任何評論。

Okay, your second question, Mehdi?

好吧，你的第二個問題，邁赫迪？

Okay, sure.

好吧，當然。

Can you please remind us what we should think about tapeout activity and specifically at N4 and N5?

您能否提醒我們應該如何考慮流片活動，特別是在 N4 和 N5 上？

And how does it compare to N7?

與N7相比如何？

Any follow-up will be great.

任何後續行動都會很棒。

So your question is the tapeout activity at N4 and N5 as compared to N7.

所以你的問題是 N4 和 N5 與 N7 相比的流片活動。

Well...

出色地...

Yes, if there is any update?

是的，有更新嗎？

Okay.

好的。

The demand is very strong in N4, N5, and we are engaging many customers.

N4、N5的需求非常旺盛，我們正在接觸很多客戶。

So the exact number of the tapeouts right now is all in the -- our planning and -- but I can share with you that customers' demand is very strong and will be -- continue to be strong for the next couple of years.

因此，目前流片的確切數量都在我們的計劃中，但我可以與您分享，客戶的需求非常強勁，並且在未來幾年將繼續強勁。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

Right now we have Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

現在我們有來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

There has been a lot of discussion on market share on leading edge.

關於領先優勢的市場佔有率已經有很多討論。

And so could you comment a little bit on how do we think about TSMC's market share in N7, which I think is probably like 85 -- 80%, 85% or even higher and compare that with what are we expecting for the N5 family, which will include N5 and N4?

那麼您能否評論一下我們如何看待台積電在 N7 中的市場份額，我認為可能是 85 - 80%、85% 甚至更高，並將其與我們對 N5 系列的預期進行比較，其中包括N5和N4 ？

And I have a second question as well.

我還有第二個問題。

All right, Gokul's first follow-up question is in terms of market share.

好吧，戈庫爾的第一個後續問題是市場佔有率。

He wants to ask C.C. What do we see in terms of our market share at 7-nanometer?

他想問C.C.我們對 7 奈米的市佔率有何看法？

And what is our expectation or outlook at the 5-nanometer family?

我們對 5 奈米系列的期望或展望是什麼？

Gokul, it seems I'll continue to say we have technology leadership.

Gokul，看來我會繼續說我們擁有技術領先地位。

So I can share with you that we have very high percentage of market share, but what exact number is not appropriate, to announce it, because it's all our own estimate.

所以我可以跟大家分享的是，我們的市佔率比例非常高，但是具體數字是多少，不太適合公佈，因為這都是我們自己的估計。

But again the most important thing is not market share.

但同樣，最重要的不是市佔率。

The most important thing for us is continue to maintain the technology leadership, and we are focused on that.

對我們來說最重要的是繼續保持技術領先地位，我們專注於此。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up question on that.

這只是一個後續問題。

Can we say at least directionally if N5 market share in our own estimate is higher than N7, or similar to N7?

我們是否可以至少在方向上說我們自己估計的N5市佔率是否高於N7，或與N7相似？

Okay.

好的。

So the second question Gokul wants to ask, still our market share.

所以戈庫爾想問的第二個問題，仍然是我們的市佔率。

Do we see, directionally will N5 market share be higher than that of N7?

我們看，方向上N5的市佔率會高於N7嗎？

They are very similar because of we are always the technology leader.

它們非常相似，因為我們始終是技術領導者。

When we introduced N7, we are the technology leader.

當我們推出N7時，我們是技術領導者。

And when we introduce the N5 this year in mass production, we'll continue to be the technology leader, so they are very similar.

當我們今年推出量產的N5時，我們將繼續保持技術領先地位，所以它們非常相似。

Okay, thank you, yes.

好的，謝謝，是的。

Thanks, Gokul...

謝謝，戈庫爾...

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Can I ask one more question...

我可以再問一個問題嗎...

I think -- Gokul, sorry.

我想——Gokul，抱歉。

That's 2, so I would -- sorry.

那是 2，所以我會——抱歉。

I would like to ask you to get back in the queue because we still have, I think, quite a few people, but thank you.

我想請您回到隊列中，因為我認為我們還有不少人，但謝謝您。

Okay, all right.

好吧，好吧。

All right.

好的。

Next one, we have Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.

下一位是來自瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

Okay, yes.

好吧，是的。

I wanted to ask on the R&D.

我想問一下研發方面的問題。

It stepped up faster in the quarter.

本季成長更快。

From this higher level, could you discuss the investment rate that you're expecting for R&D, say, as a percent of sales?

從這個更高的層面來看，您能否討論一下您期望的研發投資率，例如佔銷售額的百分比？

And would the new advanced nodes and packaging investments start to increase the R&D intensity?

新的先進節點和封裝投資是否會開始增加研發強度？

Okay.

好的。

So Randy's first question is that he noticed, well, points out actually, that our R&D has increased or stepped up in the third quarter this year.

所以蘭迪的第一個問題是，他注意到，實際上指出，我們的研發在今年第三季有所增加或加強。

So he wants to know, given advanced packaging and the continued technology leadership, what is the R&D percentage of sales outlook that they -- we should expect?

因此，他想知道，考慮到先進的封裝和持續的技術領先地位，我們應該預期的研發佔銷售前景的百分比是多少？

Randy, let me share with you that in the third quarter the R&D expenses are higher because of our development activities in N4 and N3.

Randy，讓我跟大家分享一下，第三季的研發費用較高，因為我們在 N4 和 N3 進行了開發活動。

Longer term, we're still expecting the R&D expense to be about 8% or slightly higher than 8% of our revenue.

長期來看，我們仍預期研發費用佔營收的比例約為 8% 或略高於 8%。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And the second follow-up question I had, just on a couple segments.

我的第二個後續問題只涉及幾個部分。

Auto, I think you mentioned earlier about coming back.

Auto，我想你之前提到過要回來。

It was soft in the quarter.

本季表現疲軟。

Could you discuss now, as a growth driver from a low base, if you're finally seeing some of those content driver toward next 1 to 2 years?

現在您能否討論一下，作為一個低基數的成長驅動力，您是否最終看到了未來 1 到 2 年的一些內容驅動力？

There could be a meaningful pickup even without auto but from a content.

即使沒有汽車，但從內容中也可能產生有意義的拾取。

And then the other side, on consumer, which was quite weak just despite a lot of work from home and consumer electronics coming through.

另一方面，在消費者方面，儘管有大量家庭工作和消費電子產品完成，但消費仍然相當疲軟。

So if you can give color maybe on something happening in the consumer segment.

因此，如果你能對消費領域發生的事情進行描述的話。

Okay.

好的。

So Randy's second question is really a little bit split into 2, but he wants to know, with the automotive business seeming to bottom out, how do we view our automotive platform as a growth driver?

所以蘭迪的第二個問題確實有點分成2個，但他想知道，在汽車業務似乎觸底的情況下，我們如何將我們的汽車平台視為成長動力？

Or outlook over the next few years.

或對未來幾年的展望。

And then similarly, he also is asking about digital consumer.

同樣，他也在詢問數位消費者。

All right.

好的。

Actually, let me comment on the automotive platform.

實際上，讓我評論一下汽車平台。

Actually the COVID-19 has a major impact on the automotive market.

事實上，COVID-19 對汽車市場產生了重大影響。

And supply chain this year have all been affected, but we are seeing the sign of recovery in 4Q.

今年供應鏈都受到了影響，但第四季我們看到了復甦的跡象。

In the longer term, the trend towards safer, greener and smarter vehicle will continue to drive silicon content increase as well as the demand for advanced and specialty technology.

從長遠來看，更安全、更環保、更智慧的汽車趨勢將繼續推動矽含量的增加以及對先進和專業技術的需求。

And again I want to emphasize, with our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the opportunities.

我想再次強調，憑藉我們的技術領先地位，我們有能力抓住機會。

On the growth rate, the growth rate continue to pick up and -- but still behind the HPCs growth rate.

在成長率方面，成長率持續加快，但仍落後於高效能運算的成長率。

And for the digital consumer, it's kind of flat or is a little bit growth that I can see today.

對於數位消費者來說，我今天看到的情況是持平或略有成長。

Did that answer your question, Randy?

這回答了你的問題嗎，蘭迪？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Just maybe the near term.

也許只是近期。

I was surprised it was as much down, factoring in stay-at-home consumer electronics demand, but I don't know if anything -- just specific or short term in nature on that.

考慮到家庭消費電子產品的需求，我很驚訝它的下降幅度如此之大，但我不知道是否有什麼影響——只是具體的或短期的。

Okay.

好的。

Actually, some of the product -- because of stay at home or the work from home, some of the product, we put into the HPCs category.

實際上，有些產品——因為留在家裡或在家工作，有些產品，我們把它們歸類為 HPC 類別。

Yes, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

Next one is Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

下一位是里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

Sebastian, you may need to unmute.

賽巴斯蒂安，你可能需要取消靜音。

So let me -- first question.

那麼，讓我——第一個問題。

Let me try the overbooking inventory question in another way again, if I may.

如果可以的話，讓我再用另一種方​​式嘗試超額預訂庫存問題。

So we understand the higher inventory is structural, led by COVID-19, but how about the higher inventory?

因此，我們知道庫存增加是結構性的，由 COVID-19 導致，但庫存增加又如何呢？

Is that led by customers' fear of foundry capacity tightness, which is now undersupplied almost everywhere, from leading edge to cutting edge?

這是因為客戶擔心代工產能緊張嗎？

Based on the past cycle's experience, the tighter the supply of any components, the higher the risk of supply chain overbooking.

根據過去週期的經驗，任何零件的供應越緊張，供應鏈超額預訂的風險就越高。

It happens.

它發生了。

I'm curious whether TSMC is seeing any gap between customers' ordering volume and your internal forecasts on end demand.

我很好奇台積電是否發現客戶的訂購量與你們內部對最終需求的預測之間存在差距。

Or it's not a concern at all, as all the strong orders are just a reflection of the real demand.

或者這根本不是什麼問題，因為所有強勁的訂單都只是真實需求的反映。

Okay.

好的。

So Sebastian's question is around the inventory.

所以塞巴斯蒂安的問題是圍繞著庫存的。

And while, his view, some of the inventory may be related to COVID-19 and more structural or linger for a while, he wants to know.

他想知道，雖然他認為部分庫存可能與 COVID-19 有關，並且更具結構性或會持續一段時間。

Is there a concern?

有什麼顧慮嗎？

Does TSMC have a concern that -- because the foundry is tight, that therefore the customers are doing a lot of overbooking or so-called double booking?

台積電是否擔心——由於代工廠緊張，因此客戶進行大量超額預訂或所謂的雙重預訂？

And also, therefore, does this create a concern for TSMC, when we look at our internal forecast for the end-demand market versus customers booking, that there is a large gap and risk of shortfall?

因此，當我們查看我們對終端需求市場與客戶預訂的內部預測時，這是否會引起台積電的擔憂，即存在很大的差距和短缺風險？

Well, Sebastian, actually, in TSMC's view, all my customers are our partners.

嗯，賽巴斯蒂安，實際上，在台積電看來，我所有的客戶都是我們的合作夥伴。

So we work with them very closely.

因此我們與他們密切合作。

And so to -- yes, to -- basically that minimize the fear of overbooking because of they don't have to be afraid of the capacity shortage and then do the overbooking to TSMC, no.

因此，是的，基本上可以最大限度地減少對超額預訂的擔憂，因為他們不必擔心產能短缺，然後向台積電進行超額預訂，不。

We work with them as a partner.

我們作為合作夥伴與他們合作。

And we -- both parties and all my customer work with TSMC and tell us their view on the market, and we share our view on the market with them also.

我們－雙方和我所有的客戶都與台積電合作，告訴我們他們對市場的看法，我們也與他們分享我們對市場的看法。

So this one minimize all -- a lot of the possibility of overbooking.

因此，這可以最大程度地減少所有超額預訂的可能性。

And that's way that TSMC working with our customers.

這就是台積電與客戶合作的方式。

They are all our partners.

他們都是我們的合作夥伴。

Did that answer your question, Sebastian?

這回答了你的問題嗎，賽巴斯蒂安？

Great.

偉大的。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

That's a very, very good answer.

這是一個非常非常好的答案。

My second follow-up question is that we've seen the rising cross-trade relationship risk in recent months.

我的第二個後續問題是，近幾個月來我們看到跨貿易關係風險不斷上升。

So I wonder if TSMC -- or your customers are concerned or discuss with you about the potential risk in production operation, as most of your fabs are located in Taiwan, and if such heightened risk continue for longer than just months, whether TSMC will keep -- consider to keep most of that fab work in Taiwan or increase investment in the other regions.

所以我想知道台積電或您的客戶是否擔心或與您討論生產運營中的潛在風險，因為您的大多數晶圓廠都位於台灣，如果這種高風險持續超過幾個月，台積電是否會繼續保持——考慮將大部分晶圓廠工作保留在台灣或增加對其他地區的投資。

Okay, Sebastian, thank you.

好的，賽巴斯蒂安，謝謝你。

Let me summarize your second question.

讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。

Your question is regarding that you observed rising or growing risks in the cross-trade relationships.

你的問題是關於你觀察到跨貿易關係中風險上升或增加的情況。

And so for -- therefore, for our customers, do they feel there is a heightened risk?

因此，對於我們的客戶來說，他們是否覺得風險更高？

And thus, is there a need for TSMC to, I guess, paraphase, expand our manufacturing footprint into other locations, given the state of cross-trade relations, in the next few years?

因此，考慮到跨貿易關係的狀況，台積電是否需要在未來幾年內將我們的製造足跡擴展到其他地點？

Okay, Sebastian.

好吧，塞巴斯蒂安。

In fact, TSMC will continue to focus on Taiwan.

事實上，台積電將繼續專注於台灣。

I mean that's -- our center of R&D and majority of our production fabs will continue to be located in Taiwan regardless of that -- all the geopolitical tension or any kind of disruption.

我的意思是，無論地緣政治緊張局勢或任何形式的干擾如何，我們的研發中心和大部分生產工廠將繼續位於台灣。

Did that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Next one, we have Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位是高盛的陸小龍。

Okay.

好的。

So the question is for the advanced packaging.

所以問題是先進封裝。

What is the revenue growth for the advanced packaging in 2020?

2020年先進封裝營收成長速度如何？

The growth rate seems to be very strong, but the management also only guided for like the future growth of -- for the advanced packaging is only slightly higher than the corporate average.

成長率似乎非常強勁，但管理層也只是對未來的成長進行了指導——先進封裝僅略高於企業平均。

This is much lower than what we have in the past 3 years.

這比過去三年要低得多。

Any reasons behind that?

這背後有什麼原因嗎？

And what's the profitability for the advanced packaging right now?

目前先進封裝的獲利能力是多少？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce, your first question is regards to our advanced packaging business.

布魯斯，你的第一個問題是關於我們的先進封裝業務。

You want to know what is the growth of the advanced packaging business in 2020.

您想知道2020年先進封裝業務的成長情況如何。

And also, what is the profitability of the advanced packaging?

另外，先進封裝的獲利能力是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Bruce, the growth of our advanced packaging in this year is close to the corporate but not as high.

Bruce，今年我們先進封裝的成長與公司接近，但沒有那麼高。

In this next several years, we do expect that on a CAGR basis it will be faster -- it will grow faster than the corporate average.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們確實預期複合年增長率會更快——它的成長速度將快於企業平均值。

And in terms of margins, its margins is lower than the corporate.

從利潤率來看，其利潤率低於企業。

However, its investment intensity, capital intensity is lower.

但其投資強度、資金強度較低。

Therefore, on a return basis, ROIC basis, it is acceptable to us.

因此，在報酬的基礎上，ROIC的基礎上，我們是可以接受的。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

So I -- the next question is for the 28 nanometers.

所以我——下一個問題是關於 28 奈米的。

I want to clarify something.

我想澄清一些事情。

In the fourth quarter 2019, I think that management showed a very high confidence that 28-nanometer utilization rate were back to the corporate average driven by more utilization such as CMOS and many FinFET, et cetera.

在 2019 年第四季度，我認為管理層表現出非常高的信心，認為在 CMOS 和許多 FinFET 等利用率提高的推動下，28 奈米利用率回到了公司平均水平。

However, if my understanding is correct, management still expects it will be lower than corporate average in the coming years in terms of utilization rate.

然而，如果我的理解是正確的，管理層仍然預計未來幾年的利用率將低於公司平均值。

Is that the right understanding right now?

現在這樣的理解正確嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So your second question, Bruce, is regarding our 20-nanometer.

Bruce，你的第二個問題是關於我們的 20 奈米科技。

In...

在...

28.

28.

I'm sorry...

對不起...

28.

28.

28.

28.

I'm sorry.

對不起。

28 nanometers.

28奈米。

Yes, 28-nanometer.

是的，28 奈米。

And that you said that we had commented in the fourth quarter '19 earnings result January this year that our 28-nanometer utilization would improve in 1 to 2 years time.

您說我們在今年 1 月的 19 年第四季獲利結果中評論說，我們的 28 奈米利用率將在 1 到 2 年內提高。

And so -- and to the corporate average.

如此——以及企業平均。

And now your question is does that statement still hold true.

現在你的問題是這個說法仍然成立嗎？

Bruce, let me say that the progress is a little bit slower than we expected, but still, in 1 to 2 years, the utilization rate of the 28-nanometer particularly, we'll advance it to 22-nanometer while it reaching the corporate average.

Bruce，我想說的是，進展比我們預期的要慢一些，但是，在 1 到 2 年內，特別是 28 奈米的利用率，我們將在達到企業規模的同時，將其推進到 22 奈米。的。

Okay.

好的。

All right, in the interest of time, we will take the question from the last caller or last participant, please.

好的，為了節省時間，我們將回答最後一位來電者或最後一位參與者的問題。

The last one to ask questions is Roland Shu from Citigroup.

最後一位提問的是花旗集團的Roland Shu。

Yes.

是的。

On your N6 technology.

關於您的 N6 技術。

It's with one more EUV layer insertion than 7+, but N4 is with reduced mask layers from N5.

與 7+ 相比，它多了一層 EUV 層插入，但 N4 的光罩層數比 N5 減少了。

And it's with a simplified process.

而且流程已簡化。

So can you elaborate your technology development logic between N6 and N4 and also the target market for N6 and N4?

那麼您能否詳細闡述N6和N4之間的技術發展邏輯以及N6和N4的目標市場？

And how will N6 and N4 contribute to your business, respectively, going forward?

N6 和 N4 未來將如何分別為您的業務做出貢獻？

Okay, Roland.

好吧，羅蘭。

So your question is regards to N6 versus N4 positioning.

所以你的問題是關於N6和N4的定位。

You point out, technology-wise, N6 has one more EUV layer than 7+, but N4 may have reduced mass players versus N5 and with simplified process.

您指出，從技術角度來看，N6 比 7+ 多了一層 EUV 層，但與 N5 相比，N4 可能會減少大量參與者，並簡化流程。

So you really -- you're asking, does N4 serve the same group or target the same group of customers as N6?

所以你真的 - 你會問，N4 是否與 N6 服務於同一群體或針對同一群體的客戶？

Or are they separate, well, markets or targeting separate customers and applications?

或者它們是獨立的市場還是針對不同的客戶和應用程式？

Correct, great.

正確，太好了。

Roland, it's actually very hard to answer your question whether the N6 is the same kind of group of N4.

羅蘭，其實很難回答你的問題，N6是否是N4的同一組。

Let me give you some kind of idea.

讓我給你一些想法。

N6 is kind of development, continued enhancement of the N7 or N7+.

N6是N7或N7+的一種開發、持續增強。

And so all the second wave of the customer will use N6 when they want to enter the 7-nanometer family and because of that offer the better density, better performance and better power consumption.

因此，所有第二波客戶在想要進入 7 奈米系列時都會使用 N6，因為它提供更好的密度、更好的性能和更好的功耗。

Now the -- similar to N6, N4 is also -- will continue to improve the N5.

現在——與N6類似，N4也是——將繼續改進N5。

And we also observe that, if we can reduce mask count, we can improve the defect density.

我們也觀察到，如果我們能夠減少掩模數量，我們就可以提高缺陷密度。

We can improve the cycle time.

我們可以改善週期時間。

And we also -- at the same time, we also offer the better density, better performance, et cetera, et cetera.

同時，我們也提供更好的密度、更好的效能等等。

And so are they the same group?

那麼他們是同一組嗎？

I cannot answer this question, but it's the same purpose.

這個問題我無法回答，但目的是一樣的。

We offer N6 to be the second wave of the N7's customer.

我們提供N6作為N7的第二波客戶。

We'll offer the N4 also to offer to the second wave of the customer of N5.

我們將把N4也提供給N5的第二波客戶。

Yes.

是的。

Did that...

是不是這樣...

Okay, that is -- yes, I've been -- yes.

好吧，那就是——是的，我一直——是的。

It's a little bit complicated, yes, because N4 -- does -- is there any performance enhancement to N5?

是的，這有點複雜，因為 N4 確實比 N5 有任何效能增強嗎？

Because it is with simplified process.

因為它是簡化的流程。

And still there is -- I can understand at least the improvements on defect, on this product -- production cycle times, but how about from the performance point of view?

而且仍然存在——我至少可以理解該產品在缺陷方面的改進——生產週期時間，但是從性能的角度來看又如何呢？

Is there going to be an enhancement to N5?

N5會有增強版嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So your second question, Roland, continues to ask about the 4-nanometer.

所以你的第二個問題，羅蘭，繼續詢問4奈米。

Will -- N4, does it carry any performance enhancement or PPA improvement as compared to N5?

- N4，與 N5 相比，它是否有任何性能增強或 PPA 改進？

Yes.

是的。

The short answer is yes.

簡短的回答是肯定的。

We improve the density.

我們提高密度。

We improve the performance, including the transistor performance.

我們提高了性能，包括晶體管性能。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

All right, this concludes our Q&A session.

好了，我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議重播將在 4 小時內提供。

The transcript will become available 24 hours from now.

成績單將於 24 小時後提供。

Both of them are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

兩者都可以透過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy, and we hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望每個人都繼續保持安全和健康，並希望您在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。