台積電 ADR (TSM) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

台積電2024年第二季財報強調了先進技術需求推動的強勁營收成長。該公司正在投資二奈米和 A16 等領先技術,以支持未來的成長。台積電的目標是保持技術領先地位、客戶信任和可持續的投資回報。他們對提高利潤率和獲利能力持樂觀態度,並計劃提高產能以滿足人工智慧和智慧型手機相關行業的高需求。

該公司還專注於節能計算和解決成本上升問題。台積電已為人工智慧晶片的前沿發展趨勢做好準備,並計劃在未來支援更大的染料尺寸。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (spoken in foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference and conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations, and your host for today.

    (外語)大家下午好,歡迎參加台積電2024年第二季財報及電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su,也是今天的主持人。

  • Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions) The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2024, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2024. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will join me and provide the company's key messages. Then, we will open both the floor and the line for the Q&A session.

    今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播,您也可以在其中下載財報發布資料。 (操作者說明) 今天活動的形式如下。首先,台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德爾先生將總結我們2024年第二季度的營運情況,然後是我們對2024年第三季度的指導。 C.C. Wei,將會和我一起提供公司的關鍵資訊。然後,我們將開放問答環節。

  • As usual, I'd like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release. And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

    像往常一樣,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。現在,我想把麥克風交給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生,讓他總結營運情況和當前季度的指導。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the second quarter of 2024. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter 2024.

    謝謝你,傑夫。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2024 年第二季的財務亮點開始。

  • Second-quarter revenue increased 13.6% sequentially in TWD or 10.3% in US dollars as our business was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading three and five nanometers technologies, partially offset by the continuous smartphones seasonality. Gross margin increased 10 basis points sequentially to 53.2%, mainly reflecting cost improvement in the more favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by the margin dilution from N3 ramp.

    第二季營收以新台幣計算成長13.6%,以美元計算成長10.3%,因為我們的業務受到對業界領先的3 奈米和5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持,但部分被持續的智慧型手機季節性成長所抵消。毛利率較上月成長 10 個基點至 53.2%,主要反映了更有利的外匯匯率帶來的成本改善,但部分被 N3 斜坡的利潤稀釋所抵銷。

  • Due to the operating leverage, total operating expense accounted for 10.5% of net revenue as compared to 11.1% in the first quarter. Thus, operating margin increased 0.5 percentage points sequentially to 42.5%. Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD9.56 and ROE, 26.7%.

    由於營運槓桿的影響,總營運費用佔淨收入的10.5%,而第一季為11.1%。因此,營業利潤率比上一季增加了 0.5 個百分點,達到 42.5%。整體而言,我們第二季 EPS 為新台幣 9.56 元,ROE 為 26.7%。

  • Now, let's move on to revenue by technology. Three nanometer process technology contributed 15% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while five nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 35% and 17% respectively. Advanced technology, defined as seven nanometer and below, accounted for 67% of wafer revenue.

    現在,讓我們繼續討論技術收入。三奈米製程技術貢獻了第二季晶圓收入的15%,五奈米和七奈米製程分別佔35%和17%。先進技術(定義為 7 奈米及以下)佔晶圓收入的 67%。

  • Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC increased 28% quarter over quarter to account for 52% of our second-quarter revenue, surpassing 50% for the first time. Smartphone decreased 1% to account for 33%. IoT increased 6% to account for 6%. Automotive increased 5% to account for 5%. And DCE increased 20% to account for 2%.

    接下來按平台劃分的營收貢獻方面,HPC 環比成長 28%,佔第二季營收的 52%,首次超過 50%。智慧型手機下降 1%,佔 33%。 IoT 成長了 6%,佔 6%。汽車產業成長了 5%,達到 5%。大商所佔比上升20%至2%。

  • Moving onto the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD2 trillion or USD63 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD23 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD16 billion in accounts payable. Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD9 billion, mainly as we raised TWD12 billion in corporate bonds.

    轉向資產負債表,第二季末我們的現金和有價證券為 2 兆新台幣(即 630 億美元)。負債方面,流動負債增加230億元新台幣,主要是應付帳款增加160億元新台幣。長期有息債務增加90億元新台幣,主要是募集公司債120億元新台幣。

  • On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased by 3 days to 28 days. Days of inventory decreased by 7 days to 83 days primarily due to higher-end three wafer shipment.

    財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數減少3天至28天。庫存天數減少 7 天至 83 天,主要由於高端三晶圓出貨。

  • Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the second quarter, we generated about TWD378 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD206 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD91 billion for third quarter '23 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD101 billion to TWD1.8 trillion at the end of the quarter. In US dollar terms, our second-quarter capital expenditures totaled USD6.36 billion.

    關於現金流和資本支出,第二季我們從營運中產生了約3,780 億新台幣的現金,在資本支出上花費了2,060 億新台幣,並為23 年第三季分配了910 億新台幣的現金股息。總體而言,本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 1,010 億新台幣,達到 1.8 兆新台幣。以美元計算,我們第二季的資本支出總額為 63.6 億美元。

  • I've finished my financial summary. Now, let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third-quarter revenue to be between USD22.4 billion and USD23.2 billion, which represents a 9.5% sequential increase or 32% year-over-year increase at the midpoint.

    我已經完成了財務摘要。現在,讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。根據目前的業務前景,我們預計第三季營收將在 224 億美元至 232 億美元之間,季增 9.5%,中間值年增 32%。

  • Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD32.5, gross margin is expected to be between 53.5% and 55.5%, operating margin between 42.5% and 44.5%. Thus, concludes my financial presentations.

    基於1美元兌32.5新台幣的匯率假設,預計毛利率在53.5%至55.5%之間,營業利潤率在42.5%至44.5%之間。我的財務報告到此結束。

  • Now, let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our second quarter '24 and third quarter '24 profitability. Our second-quarter gross margin was 53.2%, slightly ahead of the high end of our guidance, mainly as we saw a higher-than-expected overall capacity utilization rate as compared to our forecast three months ago.

    現在,讓我談談我們的關鍵訊息。我將首先談論我們 24 年第二季和 24 年第三季的獲利能力。我們第二季的毛利率為 53.2%,略高於我們指引的上限,主要是因為我們看到整體產能利用率高於我們三個月前的預測。

  • We have just guided our third-quarter gross margin to increase by 1.3 percentage points to 54.5% at the midpoint. This is primarily due to the higher overall capacity utilization rate in the third quarter and better cost improvement effort, including productivity gains, partially offset by continued dilution from N3 ramp-up, N5 to N3 tool conversion costs, and higher electricity prices in Taiwan. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, of which we have no control over, and factoring in the margin impact from our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

    我們剛剛指導第三季毛利率中位數成長 1.3 個百分點至 54.5%。這主要是由於第三季整體產能利用率較高,成本改善工作也有所改善,包括生產率的提高,但部分被 N3 產能提升、N5 到 N3 工具轉換成本以及台灣電價上漲的持續稀釋所抵消。排除我們無法控制的匯率影響,並考慮到我們的全球製造足跡擴張計畫對利潤率的影響,我們繼續預測可以實現 53% 及更高的長期毛利率。

  • Next, let me talk about our 2024 capital budget. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years. And our CapEx and capacity planning is always based on the long-term market demand profile.

    接下來我來講我們2024年的資本預算。每年,我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的成長。我們的資本支出和產能規劃始終基於長期市場需求狀況。

  • As the strong, structural AI-related demand continues, we continue to invest to support our customers' growth. We are narrowing the range of our 2024 capital budget to be between USD30 billion and USD32 billion as compared to USD28 billion to USD32 billion previously. Between 70% and 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies.

    隨著人工智慧相關的強勁結構性需求持續存在,我們將繼續投資以支持客戶的成長。我們將 2024 年資本預算範圍縮小至 300 億美元至 320 億美元,而先前為 280 億美元至 320 億美元。 70% 至 80% 的資本預算將分配給先進製程技術。

  • About 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging testing, mask-making, and others. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with the higher growth opportunities in the following years. Now, let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

    大約10%到20%將用於專業技術,大約10%將用於先進封裝測試、掩模製造等。在台積電,較高的資本支出水準始終與未來幾年較高的成長機會相關。現在,讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of USD20.8 billion, above our guidance in US dollar terms. Our business in the second quarter was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading three nanometer and five nanometer technologies, particularly offset by continuous smartphone seasonalities.

    謝謝你,溫德爾。大家下午好。首先,讓我從我們的近期需求前景開始。我們第二季的營收為 208 億美元,高於我們以美元計算的指引值。我們第二季的業務得到了對業界領先的三奈米和五奈米技術的強勁需求的支持,特別是被持續的智慧型手機季節性因素所抵消。

  • Moving into third quarter 2024, we expect our business to be supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for our leading-edge process technologies. Looking at a full year of 2024, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase by about a 10%, which is unchanged from our forecast three months ago.

    進入 2024 年第三季度,我們預計我們的業務將得到智慧型手機和人工智慧相關對我們領先製程技術的強勁需求的支持。展望 2024 年全年,我們預測除記憶體之外的整個半導體市場將成長約 10%,這與我們三個月前的預測持平。

  • At this time, we would like to expand our original definition of foundry industry to Foundry 2.0, which also includes packaging, testing, mask-making, and others, and all IDM, excluding memory manufacturings. We believe this new definition better reflects TSMC's expanding addressable market opportunities in the future. However, I want to emphasize here that TSMC will only focus on the most advanced back-end technologies, which help our customer in leading-edge product.

    這次我們想把我們原來對代工產業的定義拓展到Foundry 2.0,其中還包括封裝、測試、光罩製作等,以及所有IDM,不包括記憶體製造。我們相信這個新定義更能反映了台積電未來不斷擴大的潛在市場機會。不過,我想在這裡強調,台積電只會專注於最先進的後端技術,幫助我們的客戶獲得領先的產品。

  • Under this new definition, the size of the foundry industry was close to USD250 billion in 2023 as compared to USD150 billion under the previous definition. With our new definition, we forecast foundry industry course to be close to 10% year over year in 2024.

    根據這個新定義,到2023年,代工產業規模將接近2,500億美元,而先前的定義為1,500億美元。根據我們的新定義,我們預測 2024 年鑄造業的年增率將接近 10%。

  • TSMC's share of the foundry industry under our new definition was 28% in 2023. Supported by our strong technology leadership and broader customer base, we expect this one to further increase in 2024.

    根據我們的新定義,2023 年台積電在代工行業的份額為 28%。

  • Over the past three months, we have observed strong AI and high-end smartphone-related demand from our customers as compared to three months ago, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading-edge three nanometer and five nanometer process technologies in the second half of 2024. Thus, we continue to expect 2024 to be a strong course year for TSMC. We are raising our full-year guidance and then now expect our 2024 revenue to increase slightly above mid-20s percent in US dollar term.

    過去三個月,我們觀察到客戶對人工智慧和高階智慧型手機相關需求較三個月前強勁,導致我們領先的三奈米和五奈米製程技術的整體產能利用率有所提高。因此,我們繼續預期2024 年對台積電來說將是個強勁的一年。我們正在上調全年指引,預計 2024 年的收入將以美元計算略高於 20% 左右。

  • Next, I will talk about TSMC's capacity planning process and investment discipline. This is important, especially when we have such high forecasted demand from AI-related business. TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider for the global logic IC industry for years to come.

    接下來我會講一下台積電的產能規劃流程和投資紀律。這很重要,特別是當我們對人工智慧相關業務的預測需求如此之高時。台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯 IC 產業值得信賴的技術和產能提供者。

  • The continual resurging AI-related demand supports our strong structural demand for energy-efficient computing. As a key enabler of AI applications, the value of our technology position is increasing as customers have relied on TSMC to provide the most advanced process and packaging technology at scale in the most efficient and cost-effective manner.

    人工智慧相關需求的持續復甦支撐了我們對節能運算的強勁結構性需求。作為人工智慧應用的關鍵推動者,隨著客戶依賴台積電以最高效和最具成本效益的方式大規模提供最先進的製程和封裝技術,我們的技術地位的價值正在不斷增加。

  • As such, TSMC impose a disciplined framework to address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile underpinned by the industry megatrend of AI, HPC, and 5G. We work closely with our customers to plan our capacity.

    因此,台積電實施了嚴格的框架,以解決人工智慧、高效能運算和 5G 產業大趨勢所支撐的長期市場需求結構的結構性成長。我們與客戶密切合作來規劃我們的產能。

  • We also have a rigorous and robust system that evaluated and charges market demand from both a top-down and bottom-up approach to determine the appropriate capacity to build. Our capital investment decisions are based on four disciplines. That is technology leadership, flexible and responsive manufacturing, retaining customers' trust, and earning a sustainable and healthy return.

    我們還擁有嚴格且強大的系統,可以透過自上而下和自下而上的方法來評估和收取市場需求,以確定適當的建設能力。我們的資本投資決策是基於四個原則。這就是技術領先、靈活回應的製造、保留客戶的信任,並獲得可持續和健康的回報。

  • To ensure a proper return from our investment, both pricing and cost are important. TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic to reflect the value that we provide. Today, we are investing heavily in leading-edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support our customers, of course, and enable their success. If customers do well, TSMC should do well.

    為了確保我們的投資獲得適當的回報,定價和成本都很重要。台積電的定價策略是策略性的,而不是機會主義的,以反映我們所提供的價值。今天,我們正在大力投資領先的專業和先進的封裝技術,當然是為了支持我們的客戶,並幫助他們取得成功。如果客戶做得好,台積電也應該做得好。

  • For example, we are happy to see many of our customers' structured profitability improving in these past few years. At the same time, we face rising cost challenges due to increasing project complexity, editing node, higher electricity costs in Taiwan, global fab expansion in higher-cost regions, and other cost inflation challenges.

    例如,我們很高興看到許多客戶的結構性獲利能力在過去幾年中有所改善。同時,由於專案複雜性、編輯節點不斷增加、台灣電力成本上升、全球晶圓廠在成本較高地區的擴張以及其他成本通膨挑戰,我們面臨著成本上升的挑戰。

  • Therefore, we'll continue to work closely with our customer to see our value. We will also work diligently with our suppliers to deliver on cost performance. We believe such actions will help TSMC earn a sustainable and healthy return so that we can continue to invest in technology and capacity to support our customers support and fulfill our mission as a trusted foundry partner while delivering profitable goals for our shareholders.

    因此,我們將繼續與客戶密切合作,以看到我們的價值。我們還將與供應商努力合作,以實現成本效益。我們相信這些行動將有助於台積電獲得可持續和健康的回報,以便我們能夠繼續投資於技術和產能,以支持我們的客戶支持並履行我們作為值得信賴的代工合作夥伴的使命,同時為我們的股東實現盈利目標。

  • Finally, I will talk about our N2 status and A16 introduction. Our two nanometer and A16 technologies, these are industry in addressing the insatiable need for energy-efficient computing and almost all the AI innovator are working with TSMC. We expect the number of the new tables for two nanometer technologies in its first two years to be higher than both three nanometer and five nanometer in their first two years.

    最後說一下我們的N2狀態和A16的介紹。我們的兩種奈米和 A16 技術,這些技術是業界解決對節能運算的永不滿足的需求,幾乎所有人工智慧創新者都在與台積電合作。我們預計兩種奈米技術前兩年的新表數量將高於前兩年的三奈米和五奈米技術。

  • N2 will deliver full node performance and power benefit, which 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 25% to 30% power improvement at the same speed and more than 15% chip density increase as compared with N3E. N2 technology development is progressing well, with device performance (technical difficulty) on track, all ahead of plan. N2 is on track for volume production in 2025 with a ramp profile similar to N3

    N2將提供全節點效能與功耗優勢,與N3E相比,相同功率下速度提升10至15倍,相同速度下功率提升25%至30%,晶片密度增加15%以上。 N2技術開發進展順利,裝置性能(技術難度)步入正軌,全部提前規劃。 N2 預計於 2025 年實現量產,其坡道輪廓與 N3 類似

  • With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. N2P features a further 5% performance with -- at the same power of 5% to 10% power benefit at the same speed on top of the N2. N2P will support both smartphone and HPC applications, and volume production is scheduled for the second half 2026.

    隨著我們不斷增強的策略,我們也推出了 N2P 作為 N2 系列的擴充。 N2P 的性能進一步提高了 5%,在相同的功率下,在相同的速度下,N2P 的功率比 N2 提高了 5% 到 10%。 N2P將支援智慧型手機和HPC應用,預定2026年下半年量產。

  • We also introduced N16 as our next nano chip-based technology, featuring Super Power Rail, or SPR, as a separate offering. TSMC's SPR is innovative, best-in-class backside power delivery solution that is the first in the industry to incorporate a novel backside contact scheme to preserve gate density and device with flexibility. Compared with N2P, N16 provides a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power, or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed, and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain

    我們還推出了 N16 作為我們的下一代基於奈米晶片的技術,以超級電源軌(Super Power Rail)或 SPR 為特色,作為單獨的產品。 TSMC 的 SPR 是同類最佳的創新背面供電解決方案,是業界第一個採用新穎的背面接觸方案來維持閘極密度和裝置靈活性的解決方案。與 N2P 相比,N16 在相同功率下進一步提供 8% 至 10% 的速度提升,或在相同速度下功率提升 15% 至 20%,並額外提供 7% 至 10% 的晶片密度增益

  • N16 is best suited for specific HPC product with complex signal route and dense power delivery network. Volume production is scheduled for second half 2026. We believe N2, N2P, N16 and its derivatives will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunities well into the future. This concludes our key messages, and thank you for your attention.

    N16 最適合具有複雜訊號路徑和密集電力傳輸網路的特定 HPC 產品。量產計劃於 2026 年下半年進行。我們的關鍵訊息到此結束,感謝您的關注。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (Event Instructions) Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

    (活動說明)Gokul Hariharan,摩根大通。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Thanks, Jeff. Good afternoon, C.C. and good afternoon, Wendell. Thanks for giving us the picture in terms of how you are planning future capacity. Just on AI accelerator and related capacity, both front-end and advanced packaging, clearly, every customer is queuing up at TSMC for capacity. I think, last time, we talked about this maybe a couple of quarters back. C.C., you mentioned we expect to see supply to kind of reach balance -- supply, demand to reach balance by end of this year. Just wanted to see, what is your current remark? How do you think about supply, demand balance for AI accelerator and CoWoS advanced packaging capacity?

    謝謝,傑夫。下午好,C.C.下午好,溫德爾。感謝您向我們提供有關如何規劃未來容量的圖片。光是AI加速器和相關產能,無論是前端還是先進封裝,顯然每個客戶都在台積電排隊搶產能。我想,上次我們可能在幾個季度前討論過這個問題。 C.C.,您提到我們預計供應將在今年年底前達到平衡——供應和需求將達到平衡。只是想看看,您目前有何評論?您如何看待AI加速器和CoWoS先進封裝產能的供需平衡?

  • And I think, in your symposium, you talked about 60% CAGR compounded growth for CoWoS capacity in the next four, five years. So could you talk a little bit about how much capacity for CoWoS would you be planning to build next year as well? Like last year, you said you're going to be doubling the capacity this year. Now that we are in the middle of this year, maybe can we get a view on what is the capacity expansion for next year? That's my first question, thank you.

    我認為,在您的研討會上,您談到了未來四、五年 CoWoS 容量的複合年增長率為 60%。那麼您能否談談您明年計劃為 CoWoS 建造多少容量?和去年一樣,您說今年的產能將增加一倍。現在已經到了年中,或許我們可以了解明年的產能擴張情況如何?這是我的第一個問題,謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Gokul. All right, for the benefit of the audience online and in person, please allow me to kind of try to summarize your question. So Gokul's question, first of all, he understands and appreciates TSMC's disciplined framework in terms of looking at how to build capacity. His question is that, it seems that everyone today, AI accelerators and advanced packaging, is queuing at TSMC to ask for capacity. So his question is when do we, C.C., expect supply, demand to reach a balance, both for the accelerator side. And then, for the CoWoS, at the symposium, we said CoWoS' capacity will grow at a 60% CAGR the next few years. He also wants to know what are we planning to build or increase for 2025 CoWoS.

    好吧,戈庫爾。好吧,為了線上和現場觀眾的利益,請允許我嘗試總結您的問題。所以Gokul的問題,首先他理解並欣賞台積電在看待如何建立產能的嚴謹框架。他的問題是,似乎今天每個人,AI加速器和先進封裝,都在台積電排隊索取產能。所以他的問題是,我們 C.C. 預計加速器方面的供應和需求何時達到平衡。然後,對於CoWoS,在研討會上,我們說CoWoS的產能未來幾年將以60%的複合年增長率成長。他還想知道我們計劃為 2025 年 CoWoS 建造或增加什麼。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Gokul, I also tried to reach the supply and demand balance, but I cannot today. The demand is so high. I had to work very hard to meet my customers' demand. We continue to increase. I hope, sometime in 2025 or 2026, I could reach the balance.

    戈庫爾,我也試著達到供需平衡,但今天做不到。要求這麼高。我必須非常努力地滿足客戶的需求。我們繼續增加。我希望,在 2025 年或 2026 年的某個時候,我能達到平衡。

  • Talking about CAGR of those kind of increase of the CoWoS capacity, now, it's out of my mind. We continue to increase whatever, wherever, whatever I can, okay. The supply continue to be very tight, all the way to probably 2025, and I hope it can be eased in 2026. That's today's situation.

    現在,談論 CoWoS 容量的複合年增長率,這已經不在我的腦海裡了。我們繼續增加一切,無論在哪裡,只要我能做到的,好吧。供應繼續非常緊張,一直到可能到2025年,我希望2026年能得到緩解。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Any thoughts on next year capacity? Like, are you going to double your capacity again next year for CoWoS?

    對明年的產能有什麼想法嗎?例如,明年您打算將 CoWoS 的容量再次增加一倍嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • The last time I say that, this year, I doubled, right? More than double, okay. So next year, if I say double, probably, I will answer your question again. Next year, it's more than double. We're working very hard, as I said, wherever we can, whenever we can.

    上次我這麼說,今年我翻了一番,對吧?超過一倍,好吧。所以明年,如果我說雙,我可能會再回答你的問題。明年,這個數字將增加一倍以上。正如我所說,無論何時何地,我們都非常努力地工作。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. My second question is regarding gross margins. I think, second-half guidance already seems to be better than what originally we were thinking, that gross margin couldn't drop in second half, but looks like it's actually going up. And looks like a lot of the headwinds on gross margin is coming in this year so how should we think about gross margin looking forward for TSMC? Are we going to get back to the high 50%, 60% gross margin that we saw in 2022, given that you've got -- you're selling more of your value, you have some of the N3 tailwinds in terms of yield improvement coming through?

    好的謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於毛利率。我認為,下半年的指導似乎已經比我們最初的想法要好,即下半年毛利率不會下降,但看起來實際上正在上升。看起來今年毛利率將面臨許多阻力,那麼我們該如何看待台積電的毛利率呢?我們是否會回到 2022 年 50%、60% 的高毛利率,因為你正在出售更多的價值,你在收益率方面有一些 N3 的順風車改進即將到來嗎?

  • Into that, I will also ask, how should we think about impact of subsidies and IDC credits as you start ramping your overseas locations? How does that impact cost and gross margin? Because there's also some subsidies coming in and currently TSMC's mostly talking about gross CapEx and gross spend.

    對此,我也會問,當您開始擴大海外辦事處時,我們應該如何考慮補貼和 IDC 積分的影響?這對成本和毛利率有何影響?因為還有一些補助進來,目前台積電主要談論總資本支出和總支出。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So let me summarize Gokul's second question. It's around gross margin and profitability. He notes second half '24 gross margin seems to be better than the expectation. So his question is, really, how should we think about gross margin in the next several years? He notes, as we said, we will sell our value and that dilution of entry will gradually reduce. So where can the gross margins go back to a high 50% or 60%, that kind of level that we saw a few years ago in 2022? Maybe that's the first part of his second question. I'll stop here and I'll get to the second.

    好的。那麼讓我總結一下戈庫爾的第二個問題。它圍繞毛利率和盈利能力。他指出,24 年下半年的毛利率似乎比預期好。所以他的問題其實是,我們該如何考慮未來幾年的毛利率?他指出,正如我們所說,我們將出售我們的價值,進入的稀釋將逐漸減少。那麼毛利率在哪裡才能回到幾年前的 2022 年 50% 或 60% 的高水準呢?也許這是他第二個問題的第一部分。我就停在這裡,然後繼續講第二個。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Sure. Gokul, let me share with you some of the puts and takes. On gross margin, 2025 and a little bit beyond that, you already talked -- their positives and negatives, you already mentioned positive will be a decreasing dilution from N3, we're selling our value, and we continue to drive down our cost, increase the productivity. That is -- we are very good at that.

    當然。 Gokul,讓我與您分享一些觀點。關於毛利率,2025 年以及稍遠一點,你已經談到了 - 它們的積極和消極,你已經提到積極的將是 N3 的稀釋度減少,我們正在出售我們的價值,我們繼續降低我們的成本,提高生產力。也就是說——我們非常擅長這一點。

  • On the other hand, let's use N5 conversion to N3 as an example. We are now ruling out the possibility of further converting more N5 to N3 because we're seeing very strong demand for N3. If we decide to do that, of course, there will be a negative impact on the year that we do that. But in the future years, that will be beneficial.

    另一方面,我們以 N5 轉換為 N3 為例。我們現在排除進一步將更多 N5 轉換為 N3 的可能性,因為我們看到對 N3 的需求非常強勁。如果我們決定這樣做,當然會對我們這樣做的那一年產生負面影響。但在未來幾年,這將是有益的。

  • We continue to face cost challenges, inflation cost challenges, including electricity prices, et cetera. And also, we are beginning the production of our overseas fab, two overseas fabs next year. The phase one of Arizona fab and phase one of the Kumamoto fab. We expect that the overseas fabs will dilute our gross margins by between two to three percentage point next year and in the next several years.

    我們繼續面臨成本挑戰,通膨成本挑戰,包括電價等等。此外,我們明年將開始生產我們的海外工廠,兩個海外工廠。亞利桑那工廠一期和熊本工廠一期。我們預計明年和未來幾年海外晶圓廠將削弱我們的毛利率兩到三個百分點。

  • So those are the puts and takes to give you the concept. However, we've taken all that into considerations with our efforts in managed the cost gap, especially between the overseas fab in Taiwan. We're repeating and confident to say that 53% and higher gross margin is achievable. So I think that's the first part of your question.

    這些是為您提供概念的投入和投入。然而,我們已經考慮到了所有這些因素,並努力控製成本差距,特別是台灣海外晶圓廠之間的成本差距。我們重申並有信心地說,53% 及更高的毛利率是可以實現的。所以我認為這是你問題的第一部分。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's right.

    是啊,沒錯。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then maybe, also, just Gokul asked if it's possible to get back to the high 50%, 60% level that we saw in 2022?

    然後也許,Gokul 也問是否有可能回到 2022 年我們看到的 50%、60% 的高水準?

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Yeah, if we have a very high utilization rate, everything else stays the same, possible.

    是的,如果我們的利用率非常高,其他一切都保持不變,這是可能的。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. And then the second part of his question was, what is the impact from the different government incentives, including the CHIPS Act, ITC credits in the US, et cetera, to the financials and also, I think, partly gross CapEx and net CapEx.

    好的。然後他的問題的第二部分是,不同的政府激勵措施(包括 CHIPS 法案、美國 ITC 信貸等)對財務狀況以及我認為部分總資本支出和淨資本支出有何影響。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Generally speaking, when subsidies are received, then you see that on the cash-flow statement. They will be used to offset the asset value. That will be on the balance sheet. When this fab begins to production, the P&L impact will come in. So generally speaking, it's like that.

    一般來說,當您收到補貼時,您就會在現金流量表上看到它。它們將用於抵消資產價值。這將出現在資產負債表上。當這個晶圓廠開始生產時,損益影響就會進來。

  • Different government has different approach in providing the grants, so that's a different story. But you can look at our financial statements, there will be actual subsidy received in the period of previous quarter and previous year. For example, 2023, we received a total subsidies of slightly higher than USD1.5 billion equivalent. And we received that mainly in Japan.

    不同的政府在提供補助金方面有不同的方法,所以這是一個不同的故事。但你可以看一下我們的財務報表,上季和前一年會有實際收到的補助。例如,2023年,我們收到的補貼總額略高於15億美元等值。我們主要是在日本收到的。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, all right. Great. Thank you. Let's move on. We'll take our next one from Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley and then we'll go to Bruce Lu from Goldman.

    好吧,好吧。偉大的。謝謝。讓我們繼續。下一篇我們將邀請來自摩根士丹利的陳查理 (Charlie Chan),然後我們將邀請來自高盛 (Goldman) 的盧小龍 (Bruce Lu)。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Hi, C.C., Wendell, and Jeff. Great to see you in person again. So my first question is really about your progress of selling the value. I'm not sure what's the progress. And do you think, for next year, your leading-edge capacity is going to be shortage? If that's the case, whether that increases your chance to sell more value to your customers? Thank you.

    大家好,C.C.、溫德爾和傑夫。很高興再次見到你本人。所以我的第一個問題其實是關於你銷售價值的進展。我不確定進展如何。您認為明年你們的領先產能會短缺嗎?如果是這樣,這是否會增加您向客戶銷售更多價值的機會?謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Charlie's first question is around pricing and he wants to understand the progress of, I guess, selling our value. And also, next year, looking at next year, particularly for the leading-edge nodes, do we expect that in terms of the demand to be very full?

    好的,查理的第一個問題是關於定價的,我想他想了解銷售我們價值的進展。還有,明年,展望明年,尤其是前沿節點,我們預期需求會非常飽滿嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Charlie, this kind of pricing strategy is very strategic. You are asking me about the status; so far, so good. And this is an ongoing and continuous process. We are continuing to share our value. And by the way, my customer are doing very well also. You knew that. So we should do well also.

    查理,這種定價策略很有策略性。你問我的狀態;到目前為止,一切都很好。這是一個持續不斷的過程。我們將繼續分享我們的價值。順便說一句,我的客戶也做得很好。你知道的。所以我們也應該做得很好。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • That is actually my follow-up question on this first question. For different segment, for example, HPC customers are doing very, very well. But for smartphone customers, probably more sensitive to the cost. Do you expect the kind of difference of kind of value increase for different customers even at a same node?

    這實際上是我對第一個問題的後續問題。例如,對於不同的細分市場,HPC 客戶做得非常非常好。但對於智慧型手機客戶來說,可能對成本更加敏感。即使在同一節點,您是否期望不同客戶的價值成長會有所差異?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Charlie is asking, how will we do the pricing? Will it be different between, for example, an HPC customer versus a smartphone customer at the same node? And also, his question earlier was, do we expect the demand for the leading nodes to be very high next year?

    所以查理問,我們將如何定價?例如,同一節點的 HPC 客戶與智慧型手機客戶之間會有所不同嗎?而且,他之前的問題是,我們預計明年對領先節點的需求會非常高嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Since pricing is strategic, so it won't be flat for average product sector. So it will be different. That what I can share with you. And all my customers, they are looking for leading-edge as a capacity for next few years, and we are working with them. And so far, we try our best to support them, both in pricing and in capacity.

    由於定價具有戰略意義,因此對於普通產品領域而言,定價不會持平。所以情況會有所不同。這就是我可以與你分享的。我所有的客戶都在尋找未來幾年領先的能力,我們正在與他們合作。到目前為止,我們盡最大努力在定價和產能方面支持他們。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Thank you. And second topic is, definitely, over the past two days, there is a geopolitical risk. So Mr. Donald Trump talked about maybe a few years ago, Taiwan/TSMC took 100% chip business from US. So congrats on that part, very high market share.

    謝謝。第二個主題肯定是,過去兩天存在地緣政治風險。所以唐納德·川普先生可能在幾年前就談到,台灣/台積電從美國拿走了100%的晶片業務。所以恭喜這部分,非常高的市佔率。

  • However, the concern is growing. The US continue to depend on our Tainan, TSMC, and the chip production. So our question is for shareholders, how TSMC is going to mitigate this potential geopolitical risk. For example, whether you are going to further expand your US capacity or even share the ownership with the US government? And maybe a technical question to Wendell, for today, if we are shipping chip to the US customers, do we need to pay for the US tariff?

    然而,人們的擔憂正在加劇。美國繼續依賴我們台南、台積電、晶片生產。因此,我們的問題是股東們,台積電將如何減輕這種潛在的地緣政治風險。例如,是否要進一步擴大在美國的產能,甚至與美國政府分享所有權?也許是溫德爾的一個技術問題,今天,如果我們將晶片運送給美國客戶,我們需要支付美國關稅嗎?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, sorry. So, Charlie's second question is around sort of overseas expansion and geopolitical risk. He notes the comments from former President Trump a few days ago that Taiwan Semiconductor has taken 100% of the business. So his question is, really, how does TSMC plan to mitigate the geopolitical risk? Does this include expanding capacity overseas, particularly in the US? Would we consider -- I think part of his question was some JV or joint investments, whether with government or whether with partners. And the last question, I think, was more for Wendell about the tax or the tariffs, so to speak.

    哦抱歉。因此,查理的第二個問題是關於海外擴張和地緣政治風險。他注意到前總統川普日前表示台積電已拿下100%的業務。所以他的問題其實是,台積電計畫如何減輕地緣政治風險?這是否包括擴大海外產能,特別是在美國?我們是否會考慮——我認為他的部分問題是一些合資企業或聯合投資,無論是與政府還是與合作夥伴。我認為,最後一個問題對溫德爾來說更多是關於稅收或關稅,可以這麼說。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Okay, Charlie, so far, we did not change any of our original plan of expansion of our oversea fab. We continue to expand in Arizona, in Kumamoto, and maybe future in Europe. No change to our strategy. We continue our current practice. You mentioned about the JV, no. Okay.

    好的,查理,到目前為止,我們沒有改變我們原來的海外工廠擴建計劃。我們繼續在亞利桑那州、熊本擴張,未來可能還會在歐洲擴張。我們的策略沒有改變。我們繼續目前的做法。你提到了合資企業,沒有。好的。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • On the tariff, not that we know of. Normally, if there's a import tariff, the customers will be responsible for that. But no discussion, nothing.

    關於關稅,據我們所知並非如此。通常情況下,如果有進口關稅,則由客戶負責。但沒有討論,什麼都沒有。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Charlie. All right. We'll take the next question from Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs in the front, then we'll move online.

    好的。謝謝你,查理。好的。我們將回答前面高盛的盧小龍提出的下一個問題,然後我們將轉向網路。

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question. My question is that, why don't we take up our gross margin or structure profitability target? I mean, TSMC has been saying for selling your value for past couple of quarters without changing the margin target, i.e., most likely you are passing through all the costs. But please, I do recall in 2021, I mean, TSMC do raise the gross margin target by then because to support the future growth with more R&D.

    感謝您回答我的問題。我的問題是,我們為什麼不考慮毛利率或結構性獲利目標?我的意思是,台積電過去幾個季度一直在說要在不改變利潤目標的情況下出售你的價值,也就是說,你很可能會承擔所有成本。但是,我確實記得在 2021 年,我的意思是,台積電屆時確實提高了毛利率目標,因為為了透過更多的研發來支持未來的成長。

  • As the technology continue to be enhanced and more difficult, and one of your customer, and this is supportive that to suggest that you should charge even more. So my question is that, why is that you don't raise your gross margin target when you are trying to sell your value, which we believe we deserve much higher value.

    隨著技術的不斷增強和更加困難,並且您的客戶之一,這是支持性的,建議您應該收取更多費用。所以我的問題是,為什麼當你試圖出售你的價值時,你不提高你的毛利率目標,我們相信我們應該獲得更高的價值。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So thank you, Bruce. So Bruce's first question is about profitability and value. Bruce seems to agree that TSMC is providing value to our customers. He also notes in 2021, indeed, a few years ago, our gross margin target, long-term gross margin target, was about 50%, and we're able to increase that to 53% and higher.

    好的。所以謝謝你,布魯斯。所以布魯斯的第一個問題是關於獲利能力和價值。 Bruce 似乎同意台積電正在為我們的客戶提供價值。他還指出,到 2021 年,實際上,幾年前,我們的毛利率目標、長期毛利率目標約為 50%,我們能夠將其提高到 53% 甚至更高。

  • So his question is, really, with everything that is going on today, with the value of our technology enabling our customers more and more, why doesn't TSMC increase or revise up our long-term gross margin target from the current 53% and higher? Is that the essence?

    所以他的問題是,事實上,隨著今天所發生的一切,隨著我們技術的價值越來越多地幫助我們的客戶,為什麼台積電不提高或修改我們目前 53% 的長期毛利率目標,更高?這就是本質嗎?

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Zheng Lu

    鄭路

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Bruce, thank you for recognizing TSMC's value. I'm working with our customer. As I said, this kind of pricing is strategic. And certainly, we want to sell our value. Changing the target at this moment, I think I would like to emphasize 53% and higher. Please put more attention to and higher.

    Bruce,感謝您認可台積電的價值。我正在與我們的客戶合作。正如我所說,這種定價是策略性的。當然,我們想出售我們的價值。現在改變目標,我想我想強調53%以及更高。請大家給予更多的關注和更高的關注。

  • The number, I'm not going to change it at this time. When I have more conversation with my customer and discuss with them, I probably will give you and a higher portion, okay? Thank you.

    這個號碼,我現在不會改變它。當我和我的客戶有更多的交談和討論時,我可能會給你和更高的部分,好嗎?謝謝。

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Thank you. My next question is for advanced packaging. So management used to mention that advanced packaging margin was lower than the corporate average, but with higher ROEs. But given the recent progress for the CoWoS and everything, do we see a much better profitability for the CoWoS? And given that it's so difficult to expand the capacity, are you planning to work with more partners to increase your CoWoS supply, which will solve your current supply and demand issues?

    謝謝。我的下一個問題是關於先進封裝的。因此管理階層過去常常提到先進封裝的利潤率低於公司平均水平,但股本回報率較高。但考慮到 CoWoS 以及其他方面最近的進展,我們是否認為 CoWoS 的獲利能力會好得多?而在產能擴張如此困難的情況下,你們是否打算與更多的合作夥伴合作,增加你們的CoWoS供應量,從而解決你們目前的供需問題?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Bruce. So Bruce's second question is around advanced packaging. Part of it is in terms of the profitability. He notes, we used to say, which is true, is lower than the corporate average profitability but can earn a similar return or ROE. But his question is now, with more and more CoWoS demand and greater scale, is the profitability of advanced packaging, I think, approaching or at or above the corporate average?And also, given the tight supply, would we consider to work with more partners to help increase the capacity for CoWoS to support our customers' growth?

    好的。謝謝你,布魯斯。 Bruce 的第二個問題是關於先進封裝的。部分原因在於獲利能力。他指出,我們過去常說,這是事實,獲利能力低於企業平均水平,但可以獲得類似的回報或ROE。但他現在的問題是,隨著CoWoS 的需求越來越多、規模越來越大,我認為先進封裝的盈利能力是否接近或等於或高於企業平均水平? 而且,考慮到供應緊張,我們是否會考慮與更多的公司合作?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • You are right. For advanced packaging, the gross margin used to be much lower than the corporate average. Now, it's approaching corporate average. We are improving it. That's because of scale of the economics and we put a lot of effort to reduce our cost. So gross margin is greatly improving in these two years.

    你是對的。先進封裝的毛利率曾經遠低於企業平均。現在,它已接近企業平均值。我們正在改進它。這是因為經濟規模,我們付出了很多努力來降低成本。所以這兩年毛利率有很大的提高。

  • As for the working with OSAT partners, yes, we are doing it because of -- I just answered the question whether the CoWoS capacity is enough or not? It's not enough and in great shortage, and that limited my customers' growth. So we are working with our OSAT partner and trying to give more capacity to my customer so that they can grow healthily. And so the TSMC's wafer can be sold healthily, okay.

    至於與OSAT合作夥伴的合作,是的,我們這樣做是因為──我剛剛回答了CoWoS容量是否足夠的問題?這還不夠,而且嚴重短缺,這限制了我的客戶的成長。因此,我們正在與 OSAT 合作夥伴合作,努力為我的客戶提供更多容量,以便他們能夠健康成長。這樣台積電的晶圓就可以健康銷售了,好吧。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, C. C. Thank you, Bruce. Operator, can we move to the first participant online for their -- his or her questions, please?

    好的。謝謝你,C.C。接線員,我們可以轉到第一位線上參與者詢問他們的問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Simpson, Arete.

    布雷特·辛普森,阿雷特。

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks very much. My question was really about your capacity plans for the next nodes at N2, including A16. We're hearing that AI chipmakers are looking to migrate more aggressively from N minus 1 to the leading edge, particularly due to backside power because they're trying to lower their power budgets going forward. So my question, can you support this move? And if so, should we be expecting N2, A16 to be structurally a much bigger node than we've seen in the past few nodes? Thank you.

    是的,非常感謝。我的問題實際上是關於 N2 下一個節點(包括 A16)的容量計劃。我們聽說人工智慧晶片製造商正在尋求更積極地從 N -1 遷移到前沿,特別是由於背面功耗,因為他們試圖降低未來的功耗預算。那麼我的問題是,你能支持這項措施嗎?如果是這樣,我們是否應該期望 N2、A16 在結構上是一個比我們在過去幾個節點中看到的大得多的節點?謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Brett, thank you. So Brett's first question is on capacity planning, particularly at the leading-edge N2 and A16. So he notes rightly that AI customers are migrating aggressively from N minus 1 in the past to the most leading node. He notes particularly A16 driven by the interest in backside power. So his question is, can we support this move in terms of capacity to support the customers, and also, whether thus N2 and A16 will be a much bigger node than our nodes in the past?

    好的,布雷特,謝謝你。因此,Brett 的第一個問題是關於容量規劃,特別是在領先的 N2 和 A16 方面。因此,他正確地指出,人工智慧客戶正在從過去的 N-1 積極遷移到最領先的節點。他特別指出 A16 是由對背面電源的興趣所驅動的。所以他的問題是,我們能否在支持客戶的能力方面支持這項舉措,以及N2和A16是否會成為比我們過去的節點大得多的節點?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Brett, you are right. All the people want to move into kind of a power-efficient mode. And so they are looking for the more advanced technology so that they can save power consumption. And so a lot of my customers want to move into N2, N2P, A16 quickly.

    布雷特,你是對的。所有人都希望進入節能模式。因此,他們正在尋找更先進的技術,以便節省功耗。所以我的很多客戶都希望快速進入 N2、N2P、A16。

  • We are working very hard to build the capacity to support them. Today, it's a little bit tight. Not a little bit, actually; today is very tight. I hope in next year or the next two years, we can build enough capacity to support this kind of demand. Today, yes, we are working hard to support them. And enough? Not yet, but we are working hard to get it.

    我們正在非常努力地建立支持他們的能力。今天,有點緊張。事實上,不是一點點;今天很緊張。我希望明年或未來兩年,我們能夠建立足夠的產能來支持這種需求。今天,是的,我們正在努力支持他們。夠了嗎?還沒有,但我們正在努力實現它。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Does that answer your first question, Brett?

    這能回答你的第一個問題嗎,布雷特?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Yes, that's great, Jeff. Thank you, C.C. Wie. My follow-up question was for Wendell. I wanted to just dig into the gross margin dilution from N3. Where is that at today? And does the introduction of N3E structurally improve your N3 returns? I guess N3 is less capital-intensive. There's less EUV layers, so I'm keen to understand that this drives better economics for TSMC, particularly as you start to ramp more N3 capacity in the second half of this year? Thank you.

    好的謝謝。是的,那太好了,傑夫。謝謝你,C.C.維伊。我的後續問題是問溫德爾的。我只想深入研究 N3 的毛利率稀釋。那今天在哪裡? N3E 的引入是否會從結構上提高您的 N3 回報?我猜N3 的資本密集度較低。 EUV 層數較少,所以我很想知道這會為台積電帶來更好的經濟效益,特別是當你們在今年下半年開始增加更多 N3 產能時?謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Brett. So Brett's second question is on the gross margin dilution from N3. He notes that N3E uses less EUV layers, less capital intensity. So his question is, as we ramp N3 more and more, does N3E structurally improve the returns in gross margin of N3 as a whole.

    好的。謝謝,布雷特。因此,Brett 的第二個問題是關於 N3 的毛利率稀釋。他指出,N3E 使用較少的 EUV 層,資本密集度也較低。所以他的問題是,隨著我們越來越增加N3,N3E是否會結構性地提高N3整體毛利率的回報。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Okay, Brett, we don't break it down between the different nodes within the family. But I can share with you, overall speaking, as we said before, N3E takes a longer while to reach the copper mark. In the past, it was about 8 to 10 quarters. For N3, we're looking at 10 to maybe 12 quarters. But it is improving and we expect it to continue to improve.

    好吧,布雷特,我們不會在家庭內的不同節點之間進行分解。但我可以跟大家分享一下,整體來說,正如我們之前所說,N3E需要更長的時間才能達到銅級。過去大約是8到10個季度。對於 N3,我們預計需要 10 到 12 個季度。但它正在改善,我們預計它會繼續改善。

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Thank you, Brett.

    謝謝你,布雷特。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, thank you, Brett. Operator, let's take the next set of questions from the next participant on the call, please.

    好的,謝謝你,布雷特。接線員,請讓我們接受下一位通話參與者提出的下一組問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Shi, Needham.

    查爾斯·施,李約瑟。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a first one, just want to follow up. Wendell, I think I heard you talking about that potentially more apply to N3 conversion, maybe beyond what you're trying to do right now, the conversion. I just want to understand the overall philosophy here because I think, in the past, the TSMC does do this node-to-node conversion quite actively. Let's say, 10 nanometer to 7 nanometer, and probably, even earlier, 20 nanometer to 16 nanometer.

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。也許是第一個,只是想跟進。 Wendell,我想我聽到您談論可能更適用於 N3 轉換,也許超出了您現在正在嘗試做的轉換。我只是想了解這裡的整體理念,因為我認為,在過去,台積電確實非常積極地進行這種節點到節點的轉換。比方說,10 奈米到 7 奈米,甚至更早,可能是 20 奈米到 16 奈米。

  • And I think you told us basically treat 10 and 7 as one large node, 20 and 16 as one large node. Should we start to really think about maybe 5 and 3 are just one big node and maybe more conversion -- we should think about more of the N3 capacity growth will come from conversion going forward less from the greenfield investment? That's the first question.

    我想你告訴我們基本上將 10 和 7 作為一個大節點,20 和 16 作為一個大節點。我們是否應該開始真正考慮也許 5 和 3 只是一個大節點,也許更多的轉換——我們應該考慮更多的 N3 產能成長將來自未來的轉換,而不是來自綠地投資?這是第一個問題。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Charles. So Charles' first question is, really, look at our conversion strategy. He notes that we have always talked about building in tool commonality to provide us flexibility. We have done so in the past at certain nodes like 20 and 16, 10 and 7. So his question is, really, we have said that we potentially convert more N5 tools to support the strong demand for N3 capacity. So his question is should we, investors, analysts start to think about N5 and N3 as one big node?

    好吧,查爾斯。所以查爾斯的第一個問題其實是看看我們的轉換策略。他指出,我們一直在談論建立工具通用性來為我們提供靈活性。我們過去曾在某些節點(如 20 和 16、10 和 7)這樣做過。所以他的問題是我們,投資者,分析師是否應該開始將N5和N3視為一個大節點?

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • Right, you mentioned about 12 and 16, they are a big family. 7 and 10 are a big family. But 5 and 3 are not a big family in our definitions. At the same time, the node-to-node tool commonality in TSMC is pretty high. So for 5 and 3, the commonality of tools is over 90%, and these two nodes are adjacent. They're all in Tainan Science Park. And so it's very easy to do the conversions. Did I answer your questions?

    對了,你提到了12歲和16歲,他們是一個大家庭。 7和10是一個大家庭。但5和3在我們的定義中並不是一個大家庭。同時,台積電的節點到節點工具通用性相當高。所以對於5和3來說,工具的通用性超過90%,而這兩個節點是相鄰的。都在台南科學園區。因此進行轉換非常容易。我回答你的問題了嗎?

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Yes. May I ask a second question?

    是的。我可以問第二個問題嗎?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Certainly.

    當然。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Thanks, maybe a question about CoWoS. I think I heard -- C. C., you said maybe -- there's some technical difficulty on my side. I just want to clarify. Maybe you may double the CoWoS capacity again in 2025. But a little bit more technical question, I do want to better understand the technology constraints because your customers seems to be migrating from CoWoS-S to the more advanced version CoWoS-L, CoWoS-R and we learned that CoWoS-L, -R does not require TSV, does not require a large silicon interposer. Does that help, at least to some degree, the capacity constraints you're facing on overall CoWoS? And does that help to maybe to achieve that goal of maybe getting to the supply, demand balance some point in 2025, 2026? That's a two-part question. Thank you.

    謝謝,也許是關於 CoWoS 的問題。我想我聽說——C.C.,你說也許——我這邊有一些技術困難。我只是想澄清一下。也許你可能會在2025 年再次將CoWoS 容量翻倍。 、CoWoS- R和我們了解到CoWoS-L、-R不需要TSV,不需要大型矽中介層。至少在某種程度上,這是否有助於解決您在整個 CoWoS 上面臨的容量限制?這是否有助於實現在 2025 年、2026 年某個時候實現供需平衡的目標?這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Charles. So Charles' question is really on CoWoS. First, he would like to clarify, we said that CoWoS capacity is more than doubling in 2024. He said, did we say, is he correct to understand we said it will double again in 2025? That's the first clarification.

    好吧,查爾斯。所以 Charles 的問題其實是關於 CoWoS 的。首先,他想澄清一下,我們說 CoWoS 容量將在 2024 年增加一倍以上。這是第一個澄清。

  • And then he would like to know, as customers migrate from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L and CoWoS-R solution, a lot of technical challenges or benefits -- changes, sorry, not challenges. Does it help alleviate the capacity constraints and would that allow CoWoS to reach supply, demand balance in 2025? So one to clarify and one on the different solutions.

    然後他想知道,當客戶從 CoWoS-S 遷移到 CoWoS-L 和 CoWoS-R 解決方案時,會帶來很多技術挑戰或好處 - 變化,抱歉,不是挑戰。它是否有助於緩解產能限制,並使 CoWoS 在 2025 年達到供需平衡?因此,一項需要澄清,一項需要不同的解決方案。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Well, all right. Charles, you really know all the detail of the technology. You know the CoWoS-R, CoWoS-S, CoWoS-L, blah, blah, blah. All these kind of thing is because of our customers' requirement. Even the same customer, they have different approaches for their different products.

    好吧,好吧。查爾斯,你真的了解這項技術的所有細節。你知道 CoWoS-R、CoWoS-S、CoWoS-L,等等。所有這些都是因為我們客戶的要求。即使是同一個客戶,他們對不同的產品也有不同的方法。

  • When I say that we doubled the capacity, this is the summing all the different version of the CoWoS together. Which portion is really double? Which portion is much more than the other one? I'm not going to share with you because this is related to my customers' demand.

    當我說我們將容量加倍時,這是 CoWoS 所有不同版本的總和。哪一部分才是真正的雙倍?哪一部分比另一部分多很多?我不打算和大家分享,因為這和我客戶的需求有關。

  • So from last year to this year, we have more than doubled. And as I said, from this year to next year, we want to double again or, probably, we want to more than double again. But still, I have to work with our OSAT partner to increase the overall supply to support my customer.

    所以從去年到今年,我們增加了一倍以上。正如我所說,從今年到明年,我們希望再次增加一倍,或者,我們可能希望再次增加一倍以上。但我仍然必須與我們的 OSAT 合作夥伴合作,增加整體供應量以支持我的客戶。

  • Whether that this kind of different version of the CoWoS will give me some flexibility today, yes and no. Because different version has a different tool set. But in common, some of the tool can be used by all the CoWoS, okay, but different versions have a different demand.

    這種不同版本的 CoWoS 是否會為我帶來一些彈性,是的,也不是。因為不同的版本有不同的工具集。但總的來說,有些工具是所有CoWoS都可以使用的,好吧,但不同的版本有不同的需求。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, C. C. Thank you, Charles. We'll come back to the floor for the next two questions, please. We'll take the first one from Laura Chen from Citigroup, and then we'll go to Sunny Lin from UBS.

    好的。謝謝你,C.C。我們將回到會場回答接下來的兩個問題。第一個是花旗集團的 Laura Chen,然後是瑞銀集團的 Sunny Lin。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you, Jeff. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is also on the advanced node. I remember, C. C., you mentioned earlier that every clients are now engaged with you on the two nanometers migration. So I'm just wondering that, when we enter in maybe 2026, the third -- the second year, can we expect that the revenue contribution initially will be larger than what we had comparing to N3? And also wondering that since the performance is much better, so can we expect the dilution's period will also be shorter than N3?

    謝謝你,傑夫。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題也是關於高階節點的。我記得,C.C.,您之前提到,現在每個客戶都在與您合作進行兩奈米遷移。所以我只是想知道,當我們進入 2026 年,第三年——第二年,我們是否可以預期最初的收入貢獻會比我們與 N3 相比更大?而且還想知道,既然性能好得多,那麼我們是否可以預期稀釋期也會比N3更短?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Sorry, sorry. So Laura's first question is about N2 basically, that almost every customer is engaging with TSMC on two nanometer technology. So her question is, do we expect the revenue contribution from N2 in 2026, therefore, to be larger than compared to N3 at a similar point in time of the ramp? And also, correspondingly, will the N2 margin dilution be less or better than N3, basically.

    好的。實在抱歉。因此,Laura 的第一個問題基本上是關於 N2 的,幾乎每個客戶都在與台積電就兩奈米技術進行合作。因此,她的問題是,我們預期 2026 年 N2 的營收貢獻是否會比同期相似時間點的 N3 更大?而且,相應地,N2 的利潤稀釋基本上會比 N3 更少還是更好。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • I will give this kind of monies question to the CFO.

    我會將此類資金問題提交給財務長。

  • Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

    Wendell Huang - Chief Financial Officer, Deputy General Manager

  • All right, Laura. The revenue, yes, it's going to be bigger. Gross margin dilution, it will be faster to reach corporate average.

    好吧,勞拉。收入,是的,會更大。毛利率稀釋後,會更快達到企業平均。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • That's very clear and helpful, thank you. And also, my second question is also on the packaging side. So we know that, last time, we also discussed an Edge AI will also benefit for TSMC in terms of the advanced nodes, the dye areas. Just wondering that, do you also see your Edge AI device clients, they are moving to 3DIC or SOIC any times in the next two years? Or before that happening, can we expect more clients on the smartphone side, they will also adapt maybe InFO first? Because so far, our understanding is that, InFO, you only have one advanced, one single client. I'm just wondering that, if we see that more clients to move to on the Edge AI side on advanced packaging. Thank you.

    這是非常清楚和有幫助的,謝謝。另外,我的第二個問題也是關於包裝方面的。所以我們知道,上次我們也討論了邊緣人工智慧也將使台積電在先進節點、染料領域受益。只是想知道,您是否也看到您的 Edge AI 設備客戶,他們在未來兩年內隨時會轉向 3DIC 或 SOIC?或者在此之前,我們可以期待更多智慧型手機端的客戶,他們也可能會先適應 InFO?因為到目前為止,我們的理解是,InFO,您只有一個高級的單一客戶端。我只是想知道,如果我們看到更多的客戶轉向先進封裝的邊緣人工智慧方面。謝謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Laura's second question is very specific. But again, in regards to advanced packaging, with more and more customers working on Edge AI devices without, well, being overly specific, but what does it mean or the implication for advanced packaging solutions that we expect in the next two years to see these Edge AI customers start to use SOIC or 3DIC, particularly smartphone? Will they still be using InFO or will they also consider these solutions as well. Is that correct, Laura? Okay.

    好的。所以勞拉的第二個問題非常具體。但同樣,就先進封裝而言,越來越多的客戶致力於邊緣 AI 設備,而無需過於具體,但這意味著什麼,或者我們預計在未來兩年內看到這些對先進封裝解決方案的影響Edge AI 客戶開始使用SOIC 或3DIC,特別是智慧型手機?他們是否仍會使用 InFO,或者是否也會考慮這些解決方案。這是正確的嗎,勞拉?好的。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Well, very technical questions. Let me share with you, as my customer moving into two nanometer or A16, they all need to probably take in the approach of chiplets. So once you use your chiplets, you have to use in advanced packaging technologies.

    嗯,非常技術性的問題。讓我與您分享,當我的客戶轉向 2 奈米或 A16 時,他們都可能需要採用小晶片的方法。因此,一旦使用小晶片,就必須使用先進的封裝技術。

  • On the Edge AI, for those kind of smartphone customer, as compared with the HPC customer, HPC is moving faster because of bandwidth concern, latency, footprint, or all those kind of thing. For smartphone customer, they need to pay more attention to the footprint as well as the functionality increase. So you observe my big customers taking the InFO first and then for a few years and nobody catch it up, they are catching up. Okay.

    在邊緣人工智慧方面,對於這類智慧型手機客戶來說,與 HPC 客戶相比,由於頻寬問題、延遲、佔用空間或所有這些問題,HPC 的發展速度更快。對於智慧型手機客戶來說,他們需要更加關注佔地面積和功能的增加。所以你觀察到我的大客戶首先採用了 InFO,然後幾年後沒有人趕上,他們正在趕上。好的。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, C.C.

    非常感謝,C.C.

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Laura. We'll take the next question from Sunny Lin from UBS, and then we'll go back to the call.

    好的。謝謝你,勞拉。我們將接受瑞銀 Sunny Lin 的下一個問題,然後我們將回到電話會議。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, C.C. and Wendell. Thank you for taking my questions. So my first question is on your business opportunities for smartphone and PC. Last few years, both were X growth for quite some time. And so, how we should think about the units and silicon content for the coming two, three years? First part, a lot of questions on the tight supply for five and three nanometer? And so, are your customers engaging with you early on the planning into 2025 capacities for a better upgrade cycle?

    謝謝你,傑夫。下午好,C.C.和溫德爾。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於智慧型手機和個人電腦的商機。過去幾年,兩者在相當長的一段時間內都是X增長。那麼,我們該如何考慮未來兩三年的單位面積和矽含量呢?第一部分,關於五奈米、三奈米供應緊張的問題很多?那麼,您的客戶是否儘早與您合作規劃 2025 年產能,以實現更好的升級週期?

  • And then for silicon content, recall a few years back when 5G just started to ramp. You used to provide the silicon content expectations of 5G, high-end, and mid-end, and low-end smartphones. So I wonder, at this point of time, if you have any estimates for AI for smartphone going to next two, three years?

    至於矽含量,請回想幾年前 5G 剛開始普及時的情況。你們曾經提供了5G、高階、中階、低階智慧型手機的矽含量預期。所以我想知道,目前您對智慧型手機人工智慧未來兩三年的發展有何預測?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, several parts to Sunny's first question, she's looking at smartphone and PC. So the first part is, she wants to know, in terms of unit in silicon content, what is our expectation for smartphone and PCs in next few years? N5 and N3 supply is very tight in terms of the capacity. Can -- do we have enough capacity to support a potential unit or upgrade cycle? And last but not least, she's asking us to quantify the silicon content per device per segment from Edge AI.

    好的,Sunny 的第一個問題有幾個部分,她正在研究智慧型手機和 PC。所以第一部分是,她想知道,以矽含量為單位,我們對未來幾年智慧型手機和個人電腦的期望是什麼? N5和N3的產能供應非常緊張。我們是否有足夠的能力來支援潛在的單元或升級週期?最後但並非最不重要的一點是,她要求我們量化 Edge AI 中每個裝置每個區段的矽含量。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • That's a very long question but let me answer the content first. AI is so hot so that's -- right now, everybody, all my customer want to put the AI functionality into their Edge devices. And so, the dye size will be increased. Okay, how much? I mean, it's different from my customer-to-customers product. But basically, probably 5% to 10% dye size increase will be general rule.

    這是一個很長的問題,但讓我先回答一下內容。人工智慧是如此熱門,所以現在,每個人,我所有的客戶都希望將人工智慧功能放入他們的邊緣設備中。因此,染料尺寸將會增加。好的,多少錢?我的意思是,它與我的客戶對客戶產品不同。但基本上,染料尺寸增加 5% 到 10% 可能是一般規則。

  • Unit growth, not yet. Because we did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased, but we expect this AI functionality was stimulated some of the demand, so stimulate the replacement to be shorter. So in terms of unit growth that in a few years later, probably two years later, you will start to see a big increase in the Edge device that's a smartphone and a PC.

    單位增長,還沒有。因為我們沒有看到那種單位成長突然增加,但我們預期這種AI功能刺激了一些需求,所以刺激更新換代的時間會更短。因此,就單位成長而言,幾年後,可能兩年後,您將開始看到智慧型手機和 PC 等邊緣設備的大幅成長。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And will we have enough capacity to support?

    我們有足夠的能力來支持嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • That's the one I tried to avoid the answer. It's very, very tight, and we are working very, very hard to get enough capacity to support my customer from now all the way to next year to 2026.

    這是我試圖迴避的答案。情況非常非常緊張,我們正在非常非常努力地工作,以獲得足夠的產能來支持我的客戶,從現在一直到明年到 2026 年。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, C.C., for the answer. So my second question is try to look at the demand profile from different perspective. If we look back in 2021 or early 2022, back then, demand was also pretty high. Customers were very aggressive on the demand forecast. Now, looking at GenAI, obviously, the technology has lots of great potential, but a new technology also have lots of volatilities where you start to ramp. And so, how are we managing the volatilities of the demand? Why do you think, this time around, it is different versus COVID period? How do we get comfortable with our capacity planning?

    知道了。謝謝你,C.C.的回答。所以我的第二個問題是試著從不同的角度看待需求概況。如果我們回顧 2021 年或 2022 年初,當時的需求也相當高。客戶對需求預測非常積極。現在,看看 GenAI,顯然該技術具有巨大的潛力,但一項新技術在開始發展時也有很大的波動性。那麼,我們該如何管理需求的波動呢?您認為為什麼這次與新冠疫情時期有所不同?我們如何適應我們的容量規劃?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, thank you, Sunny. So Sunny's second question, is goes back to TSMC capacity planning and CapEx framework. So she notes we -- today, generative AI-related demand is very strong, but she also notes a few years ago, back in 2021 and '22, demand was also very strong. Many customers were also very positive or upbeat on the future demand.

    好的,謝謝你,陽光。因此,Sunny 的第二個問題是回到台積電的產能規劃和資本支出架構。所以她指出,今天,與生成人工智慧相關的需求非常強勁,但她也指出,幾年前,也就是 2021 年和 22 年,需求也非常強勁。許多客戶對未來的需求也非常積極或樂觀。

  • And so, today, with such strong generative AI demand, how does TSMC plan its capacity appropriately? How do we manage -- I think your word was volatility -- how do we manage the risk, basically, I guess, of not overbuilding capacity in this type of environment?

    那麼,在生成式AI需求如此強勁的今天,台積電如何合理地規劃產能呢?我們如何管理——我想你說的是波動性——我們如何管理風險,基本上,我想,在這種環境下不過度建立能力?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • I thought I explained that our capacity premium process and the investment, we have -- I put a wording of discipline. That means we are not going to repeat the same kind of mistake that we have in 2021, 2022.

    我想我解釋了我們的產能溢價流程和投資,我們有——我用了紀律的措辭。這意味著我們不會重蹈 2021 年、2022 年的覆轍。

  • Now this time, again, we look at the overall very big demand forecast for my customer. And so, I look at it into -- actually the whole company with many people now examining and study that reality is that AI is so useful, will be used by a lot of people or not.

    現在,這一次,我們再次審視我的客戶的整體非常大的需求預測。因此,我進行了調查——實際上,整個公司有很多人現在正在檢查和研究,現實是人工智慧非常有用,是否會被很多人使用。

  • And we test ourself first. Inside TSMC, we are using AI. We are using machine learning skill to improve our productivity, and we found out it's very useful. And so, I also in the line to buy my customer's product, and we have to form in the line. Like, I cannot privilege here, I'm sorry, but it's useful.

    我們先測試自己。在台積電內部,我們正在使用人工智慧。我們正在使用機器學習技能來提高我們的生產力,我們發現它非常有用。所以,我也在排隊購買我客戶的產品,我們必須在排隊中形成。就像,我不能在這裡特權,抱歉,但它很有用。

  • And so, I believe that this time, AI's demand is more real than two or three years ago. At that time, it is because people were afraid of a shortage, and so automotive, everything, you name it, they are all in shortage. This time, AI alone, only AI alone.

    所以我相信,這一次,AI的需求比兩、三年前更真實。當時是因為人們害怕短缺,所以汽車,所有的東西,你能想到的,都短缺。這一次,只有人工智慧,只有人工智慧。

  • It will be a very useful tool for the human being to improve all the productivity in our daily life, be it in medical industry or in any product, manufacturing industry, or autonomous driving, everything you need the AI. And so I believe it's more real. But even with that, we also have a top-down, bottom-up approach and discuss with our customers, and ask them to be more realistic. I don't want to repeat the same kind of mistake two or three years ago, and that's what we are doing right now.

    它將是人類非常有用的工具,可以提高我們日常生活中的所有生產力,無論是在醫療行業還是在任何產品、製造業、或自動駕駛,一切都需要人工智慧。所以我相信它更真實。但即便如此,我們也有自上而下、自下而上的方式和我們的客戶討論,並要求他們更現實一些。我不想重複兩三年前的同樣錯誤,而這正是我們現在正在做的。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Great to know. Thank you very much.

    很高興知道。非常感謝。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, thank you. Operator, can we move on to the next participant from the line, please? Okay. If not, then maybe we'll take the last two questions from the floor, one or two. Let's start here and then here. So we'll start with Arthur Lai from Macquarie.

    好的謝謝。接線員,我們可以轉到隊列中的下一位參與者嗎?好的。如果沒有,那麼也許我們會回答最後兩個問題,一兩個。讓我們從這裡開始,然後從這裡開始。我們將從麥格理的 Arthur Lai 開始。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Hi, C.C., and Wendell, and Jeff. Thanks for taking my question, Arthur Lai from Macquarie. I used to cover the downstream tech and especially data center before. And so, I want to ask C.C. about the SPR because I think this is very important from the data center perspective.

    大家好,C.C.、溫德爾和傑夫。感謝來自麥格理的 Arthur Lai 提出我的問題。我之前曾介紹過下游技術,尤其是資料中心。所以我想問C.C.關於SPR,因為我認為從資料中心的角度來看這非常重要。

  • So when you bring the new technology, you can save around 20% power. Can we also think about, you can save the total systems' power consumption by another 20%. So it's a big change, and from the customer you asked or you spoke to, they can also -- you said the total cost of our own operation, so it becomes the more you buy, the more you save, yeah.

    因此,當您採用新技術時,您可以節省約 20% 的電力。我們是否也可以考慮一下,可以再節省系統總耗電量20%。所以這是一個很大的變化,從你詢問或交談過的客戶來看,他們也可以——你說的是我們自己營運的總成本,所以它變成了你買的越多,你節省的越多,是的。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Arthur's first question, he would like to understand more about Super Power Rail or our best-in-class backside power solution as it relates to data center demand. He knows, as we said, that it brings greater power efficiency from the chip level. His question, without specific numbers, but what does it mean for the system level power consumption saving? What does it mean for our customers' ability in terms of total cost of ownership in terms of the power savings? And does it mean that, the more you buy, the more you save?

    好的,亞瑟的第一個問題是,他想進一步了解超級電源軌或我們一流的背面電源解決方案,因為它與資料中心需求相關。正如我們所說,他知道這會從晶片層面帶來更高的功率效率。他的問題,沒有具體數字,但這對於系統級功耗節省意味著什麼?這對我們客戶的總擁有成本和節能能力意味著什麼?這是否意味著您買得越多,節省的就越多?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • The more you buy TSMC's wafer, the more you save, yes. Sorry, I just want to -- I like my customer. Your question, Arthur, you say that 20% sales in the chips power consumption, does that directly reply to indicate that the system power consumption was reduced by 20% Probably not because of the whole system, including the connection, including the networking, including the processes of power consumption.

    買台積電的晶圓越多,省的錢就越多,是的。抱歉,我只是想──我喜歡我的客戶。你的問題,阿瑟,你說20%的銷售在晶片功耗上,是否直接回覆說系統功耗降低了20%?

  • So unless every component save 20%, then you can achieve 20%. But again, the accelerator or the CPU is a big portion of the whole system's power consumption. So even it is not 20%, it's a significant portion of it. And so that's why all my customers want to using the leading edge, and they are very aggressive to move into the two nanometer technology.

    因此,除非每個組件都節省 20%,否則您可以實現 20%。但同樣,加速器或 CPU 是整個系統功耗的很大一部分。因此,即使不是 20%,它也是其中的重要部分。這就是為什麼我所有的客戶都希望使用領先優勢,並且他們非常積極地進入兩奈米技術。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Thank you. So I also encourage the company to do the right thing, so energy efficiency computing is definitely our goal for human beings. And then, so I also -- I would like to get more color about when you go into the A16 and when we expand the capacity, what do you think the biggest bottleneck would be?

    謝謝。所以我也鼓勵公司去做正確的事情,所以能效計算絕對是我們人類的目標。然後,我也想了解更多有關 A16 的情況以及我們擴大容量時的情況,您認為最大的瓶頸是什麼?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Arthur's second question is in terms of A16. What would be the biggest bottleneck to expand our capacity of A16 to support our customers, if any?

    好的。所以Arthur的第二個問題是A16方面的。擴大 A16 產能以支援客戶的最大瓶頸是什麼(如果有)?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • We always say that, when TSMC want to expand the capacity, we need the land, we need the electricity, we need the talented people, and so all the above.

    我們總是說,台積電要擴大產能,需要土地、需要電力、需要人才等等。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Thank you, C.C.

    謝謝你,C.C.

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you. And then in the interest of time, we'll take question from the last participant on the floor, which is Brad Lin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    好的。謝謝。然後,為了節省時間,我們將接受最後一位與會者的提問,他是來自美銀美林的 Brad Lin。

  • Brad Lin - Analyst

    Brad Lin - Analyst

  • Thank you, Jeff, for taking my questions. So I have two questions. The first one would be on the -- during the COMPUTEX. We obviously have seen quite some big tech companies announced that they are going to accelerate the launch cadence. So what's the implication to TSMC? Should that give TSMC a better visibility on the pipeline and also the capacity planning? And on the other side, so what are the major challenges that you might face with this pace or cadence?

    傑夫,謝謝你回答我的問題。所以我有兩個問題。第一場將在 COMPUTEX 期間舉行。我們顯然已經看到不少大型科技公司宣布他們將加快發布節奏。那麼這對台積電有何影響呢?這是否能讓台積電更了解管道和產能規劃?另一方面,以這種節奏或節奏您可能面臨的主要挑戰是什麼?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Brad's first question is that, at COMPUTEX recently, several companies announced their intention to accelerate their product cadence or product launches. So his question is, what does this mean, implications to TSMC in terms of capacity planning, in terms of supporting our customers, et cetera, et cetera. Is that right? Okay.

    好的,Brad 的第一個問題是,最近在 COMPUTEX 上,有幾家公司宣布打算加快產品節奏或產品發布。所以他的問題是,這意味著什麼,對台積電在產能規劃、支援客戶等方面的影響。是對的嗎?好的。

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Well, we like this kind of a trend because of TSMC is very good at the leading-edge development. And so we -- actually, every product, when they design, it takes 1.5 years to 2 years. So we got this kind of message, but quite a long time ago. My customer announce it because they are so happy. And so we are happy also, because they want us to see our value. So I take that advice. But, [Gokul, Douglas.]

    那我們喜歡這種趨勢,因為台積電非常擅長前沿開發。所以我們——實際上,每一個產品,當他們設計時,都需要 1.5 年到 2 年的時間。所以我們收到了這樣的訊息,但已經是很久以前的事了。我的客戶宣布這一消息是因為他們非常高興。所以我們也很高興,因為他們希望我們看到我們的價值。所以我接受這個建議。但是,[戈庫爾,道格拉斯。

  • Okay, so to answer your question, yes, we have been prepared. And not only because of in June, they announce it. We, much earlier, we already discussed with them, and we prepare for these kind of changes.

    好的,回答你的問題,是的,我們已經準備好了。不僅僅是因為他們在六月宣布了這一消息。我們很早就已經與他們討論過,並為此類變化做好準備。

  • Brad Lin - Analyst

    Brad Lin - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you very much. So I would assume that would help us kind of sell the value easier. So the second question will be on the -- well, obviously, we also see the bigger footprint of the AI chips. So while there are quite some activities about fan-out, panel-level packaging. So do you think that that solution will become mentioned in the mid to long run or does TSMC have any plan to do the related investment?

    知道了。非常感謝。所以我認為這將幫助我們更輕鬆地出售價值。所以第二個問題是──顯然,我們也看到人工智慧晶片的佔地面積更大。因此,雖然有很多關於扇出、面板級封裝的活動。那麼您認為中長期來看這個解決方案會被提及嗎?

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, so Brad's second question is that, again, with AI-related chips that they're larger and larger dye sizes, so his question is in terms of advanced packaging and specifically fan-out, panel-level packaging. Is this something that TSMC is looking at or exploring to do? Would this be something for TSMC in the mid to long term?

    好的,布拉德的第二個問題是,對於人工智慧相關晶片來說,它們的染料尺寸越來越大,所以他的問題是在先進封裝方面,特別是扇出面板級封裝方面。這是台積電正在考慮或探索的事情嗎?這對台積電來說是中長期的事嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, we are looking at this as kind of a panel level fan-out technology. But the maturity today is not yet. So I -- personally, I will think it's about at least three years later. In this -- within these three years, we don't have any very solid solution for a dye size bigger than 10 times of the radical size. Today, we support our customer all the way to 5x, 6x chip size. I'm talking about the fuel size, the biggest fuel size. Two years later, I believe the panel fan-out will be -- start to be introduced and we are working on it.

    是的,我們將其視為一種面板級扇出技術。但今天還沒有成熟。所以我個人認為至少三年後。在這三年內,對於大於自由基尺寸 10 倍的染料尺寸,我們沒有任何非常可靠的解決方案。今天,我們為客戶提供一直到 5 倍、6 倍晶片尺寸的支援。我說的是燃料尺寸,最大的燃料尺寸。兩年後,我相信面板扇出將開始引入,我們正在努力。

  • Brad Lin - Analyst

    Brad Lin - Analyst

  • And we will be ready for it as well?

    我們也會為此做好準備嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    C.C. Wei - Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Of course.

    當然。

  • Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeffrey Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Brad. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now, and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    好的。謝謝你,C.C.謝謝你,布拉德。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前,請注意,會議重播將在 30 分鐘內提供,會議記錄將在 24 小時後提供,兩者均可通過台積電網站 www.tsmc 獲取.com。

  • So thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well, and we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a great day.

    謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們希望大家繼續保持良好狀態,並希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見,祝你有美好的一天。