科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research March 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2024 年 3 月收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ram Ganesh, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

現在，我想請投資者關係主管 Ram Ganesh 發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加泛林研究季度財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer；執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the March 2024 quarter and our outlook for the June 2024 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享商業環境的概述，並將回顧 2024 年 3 月季度的財務業績和 2024 年 6 月季度的前景。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於下午 1:00 後發布。太平洋時間。新聞稿以及今天電話會議附帶的簡報幻燈片也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see the accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們 SEC 公開文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中隨附的幻燈片以了解更多資訊。除非另有說明，今天對我們財務表現的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整可以在簡報中的隨附幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon. We're having some technical difficulties posting our earnings call slides externally. We will try to post it as the call is going on. If not, we will post it on our website after this call.

這次通話預計持續到下午 3 點。太平洋時間。今天下午稍晚將重播本次電話會議。我們在對外發布財報電話會議投影片時遇到了一些技術困難。我們將嘗試在通話進行時發布它。如果沒有，我們將在此次電話會議後將其發佈在我們的網站上。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

接下來，我會將電話轉交給提姆。

Thanks, Ram, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Lam is off to a strong start in calendar 2024, with revenues, profitability and earnings per share for the March quarter all exceeding the midpoint of our guidance. These results, as well as our outlook for the June quarter, point to Lam's solid execution in an industry environment that is progressing much as we predicted in our January call.

謝謝拉姆，也謝謝今天加入我們的所有人。 Lam 在 2024 年取得了良好的開局，3 月份季度的收入、盈利能力和每股收益都超過了我們指導的中點。這些結果以及我們對 6 月季度的展望表明 Lam 在行業環境中的穩健執行，該行業的進展正如我們在 1 月電話會議中所預測的那樣。

Today, we see industry WFE spending for calendar 2024 in the low to mid-$90 billion range, with the modest increase from our prior view, driven mainly by additional lithography shipments into China. We see no meaningful change to our outlook for Lam's overall 2024 revenue profile. From an industry perspective, DRAM remains strong with WFE spending driven by growing demand for high-bandwidth memory and sustained investment in domestic China.

今天，我們預計 2024 年產業 WFE 支出將在 900 億美元左右，較我們先前的觀點略有成長，這主要是由於中國光刻機出貨量增加。我們認為 Lam 2024 年整體收入狀況的前景不會有任何有意義的變化。從產業角度來看，由於高頻寬記憶體需求不斷成長以及中國國內持續投資的推動，DRAM 依然強勁，WFE 支出也保持強勁。

In foundry logic, growth in leading-edge spending this year is being partially offset by a decline in mature node spending outside of domestic China. Domestic China spending is running higher than we had previously expected. However, we still see it being first half weighted, with Lam's revenue contribution from China declining as the year progresses.

從代工邏輯來看，今年前沿支出的成長被中國國內以外成熟節點支出的下降部分抵銷。中國國內支出高於我們先前的預期。然而，我們仍然認為它是上半年加權的，林氏集團來自中國的收入貢獻隨著時間的推移而下降。

In NAND, we continue to expect year-on-year growth in WFE spending in calendar 2024. Encouragingly, we have seen an uptick in fab utilization. And in the March quarter, this has translated into double-digit percent growth quarter-over-quarter in our spares revenues. As supply and demand continues to normalize through the remainder of the year, we see a strong setup developing for 2025 NAND spending.

在 NAND 領域，我們繼續預計 2024 年 WFE 支出將同比增長。在三月的季度，我們的備件收入實現了兩位數的季度環比增長。隨著今年剩餘時間供需繼續正常化，我們看到 2025 年 NAND 支出的強勁格局正在形成。

As we move toward a broader WFE recovery, Lam stands to benefit from powerful secular drivers of semiconductor growth and innovation. Generative AI and other emerging smart applications are built on a foundation of semiconductor technology and are expected to deliver trillions of dollars of economic benefit at a global level over the next decade.

隨著我們邁向更廣泛的 WFE 復甦，Lam 將從半導體成長和創新的強大長期驅動力中受益。生成式人工智慧和其他新興智慧應用建立在半導體技術的基礎上，預計未來十年將在全球帶來數兆美元的經濟效益。

AI's transformative use cases, foreseen in both consumer and enterprise markets, are only in the early stages of realization, and we believe that significant investment in semiconductor manufacturing capacity will be required to satisfy the coming demand for advanced compute, memory and storage. In this environment, the winners will be the equipment companies that can accelerate the pace of technology advancement, while, at the same time, deliver innovations that disrupt the rising cost and complexity of semiconductor fabrication.

人工智慧在消費者和企業市場中所預見的變革性用例僅處於實現的早期階段，我們認為需要對半導體製造能力進行大量投資才能滿足未來對先進運算、記憶體和儲存的需求。在這種環境下，獲勝者將是能夠加快技術進步步伐的設備公司，同時提供能夠顛覆半導體製造成本和複雜性不斷上升的創新。

To this end, Lam is investing in 2 differentiated approaches. First, we are putting more capabilities and resources close to our customers to strengthen collaboration. And second, we are leveraging Lam's proprietary Semiverse Solutions' digital twin capabilities to reduce the time and cost of technology development.

為此，林正投資了兩種不同的方法。首先，我們將更多能力和資源貼近客戶以加強協作。其次，我們利用 Lam 專有的 Semiverse Solutions 數位孿生功能來減少技術開發的時間和成本。

Already, we are seeing Lam's distributed R&D footprint having a positive effect. In the past quarter, we've used our customer-centric lab investments in Korea, Taiwan and the U.S. to accelerate cycles of learning on new applications, resulting in important wins for Lam in both DRAM and foundry logic advanced packaging.

我們已經看到林的分散式研發足跡產生了正面的影響。在過去的季度中，我們利用在韓國、台灣和美國以客戶為中心的實驗室投資來加快新應用的學習週期，為 Lam 在 DRAM 和代工邏輯先進封裝領域取得了重大勝利。

With respect to Semiverse Solutions, we leverage a portfolio of digital twins created at the scale of the device, the process and the reactor, to model complex interactions that influence tool performance and productivity. Lam's engineers now regularly use these capabilities to optimize multidimensional etch and deposition process recipes faster and with less on-tool wafer experimentation.

對於 Semiverse 解決方案，我們利用在裝置、流程和反應器規模上建立的數位孿生組合來對影響工具效能和生產率的複雜互動進行建模。 Lam 的工程師現在經常使用這些功能來更快地優化多維蝕刻和沈積製程配方，並減少機載晶圓實驗。

Turning to demand related to AI. The early impact has been most prominent in DRAM and foundry logic. We believe, however, that AI's impact on storage is still ahead and represents a key vector of long-term growth for our NAND business. More advanced AI applications need faster, more power-efficient and higher-density NAND storage. NAND-based enterprise solid-state drives, or eSSDs, are 50x faster in read/write capability, 2 to 5x more power efficient and use 50% less space at the system level compared to hard disk drives or HDDs.

轉向與人工智慧相關的需求。早期影響在 DRAM 和代工邏輯中最為突出。然而，我們相信人工智慧對儲存的影響仍然存在，並且是我們 NAND 業務長期成長的關鍵向量。更先進的人工智慧應用需要更快、更節能和更高密度的 NAND 儲存。與硬碟或 HDD 相比，基於 NAND 的企業級固態硬碟 (eSSD) 的讀取/寫入能力提高 50 倍，能源效率提高 2 至 5 倍，系統級空間佔用減少 50%。

Today, over 80% of enterprise data is stored on HDDs. And we expect this mix to shift in favor of SSDs as NAND capability and cost continues to improve. This is where Lam is playing a key role by enabling technologies, which are critical for both performance and cost scaling. In deposition, for example, Lam is leading the transition from tungsten to molybdenum in the word line to improve device access time and reduce stack height per storage cell.

如今，超過 80% 的企業資料儲存在 HDD 上。隨著 NAND 功能和成本的不斷提高，我們預計這種組合將轉向 SSD。這就是 Lam 透過支援技術發揮關鍵作用的地方，這些技術對於效能和成本擴展都至關重要。例如，在沉積過程中，Lam 正在引領字線中從鎢到鉬的轉變，以縮短裝置存取時間並降低每個儲存單元的堆疊高度。

In etch, Lam is using high-aspect-ratio cryogenic etch to enhance productivity of memory hole formation. Today, we are approaching 1,000 cryo-etched chambers in our high-volume manufacturing installed base.

在蝕刻中，Lam 正在使用高深寬比低溫蝕刻來提高儲存孔形成的生產率。如今，我們的大批量製造安裝基地已接近 1,000 個冷凍蝕刻室。

In partnership with our customers, we're using the tremendous amount of data coming from this installed base to rapidly improve technology and cost at each successive layer transition in NAND. Recently, we combined the learning from the installed base with the capabilities of our Semiverse Solutions' simulation tools to further strengthen our differentiation. As a result of our accelerated innovation, we have defended every NAND high-aspect-ratio memory hole etch production decision made so far by customers.

我們與客戶合作，利用來自該安裝基礎的大量資料來快速改進 NAND 中每個連續層轉換的技術和成本。最近，我們將從安裝基礎中獲得的經驗與 Semiverse Solutions 模擬工具的功能相結合，以進一步增強我們的差異化優勢。由於我們加速創新，我們捍衛了客戶迄今為止做出的每一個 NAND 高深寬比內存孔蝕刻生產決策。

With respect to DRAM, AI servers use high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to increase read/write speed and reduce server power consumption. HBM stacks multiple DRAM dies using TSVs, enabling 15x more data throughput than standard DRAM. However, HBM also requires an approximate threefold increase in wafers per bit compared to conventional memory.

相對於DRAM，AI伺服器使用高頻寬記憶體（HBM）來提高讀寫速度並降低伺服器功耗。 HBM 使用 TSV 堆疊多個 DRAM 晶片，資料吞吐量比標準 DRAM 高 15 倍。然而，與傳統記憶體相比，HBM 還需要大約增加三倍的每個位元晶圓。

With this in mind, it's important that our SABRE 3D and Syndion tools not only provide best-in-class plating and etch capabilities, but also deliver industry-leading throughput and productivity to keep overall costs low for our customers. We are the leading player in TSV applications for HBM and expect our HBM-related shipments to grow more than 3x in calendar year 2024.

考慮到這一點，重要的是我們的 SABRE 3D 和 Syndion 工具不僅提供一流的電鍍和蝕刻功能，而且還提供業界領先的吞吐量和生產率，以降低客戶的整體成本。我們是 HBM TSV 應用領域的領導企業，預計 2024 年我們的 HBM 相關出貨量將成長 3 倍以上。

Finally, on the foundry logic side. Lam tools, including selective etch and ALD, are well positioned to help enable the move from FinFET to gate-all-around, a key transition needed to improve transistor performance per watt by 15% to 20%. We see our shipments for gate-all-around nodes in calendar year 2024 exceeding $1 billion.

最後，在代工邏輯方面。 Lam 工具（包括選擇性蝕刻和 ALD）能夠很好地幫助實現從 FinFET 到環柵的轉變，這是將電晶體每瓦性能提高 15% 到 20% 所需的關鍵轉變。我們預計 2024 年全柵節點的出貨量將超過 10 億美元。

Lam tools are also enabling foundry logic inflections such as backside power delivery, molybdenum interconnects and dry photoresist processes for EUV patterning. Our traction with customers is strong on these inflections, and together, they represent a multibillion-dollar growth opportunity for Lam as AI drives a greater need for faster, more power-efficient devices.

Lam 工具還支援代工邏輯的改進，例如背面供電、鉬互連和用於 EUV 圖案化的乾光阻製過程。這些變化對客戶的吸引力非常大，隨著人工智慧推動了對更快、更節能設備的更大需求，它們為 Lam 帶來了數十億美元的成長機會。

To conclude, the proliferation of AI, the global push for localized chip manufacturing capacity and the ubiquity of semiconductors in new consumer and commercial products represent powerful secular drivers for Lam and the rest of the semiconductor equipment industry in the years ahead. We are pleased with the company's execution and our results in the March quarter and remain focused on our opportunity to outperform through this next leg of industry growth.

總而言之，人工智慧的擴散、全球對本地化晶片製造能力的推動以及半導體在新消費和商業產品中的普遍存在，代表著未來幾年對 Lam 和其他半導體設備行業的強大長期驅動力。我們對公司的執行情況和三月季度的業績感到滿意，並繼續關注我們在下一階段行業成長中表現出色的機會。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Doug.

謝謝，我現在將其交給道格。

Great. Thanks, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining our call today during what I know is a busy earnings season.

偉大的。謝謝，蒂姆。大家下午好，感謝大家今天在繁忙的財報季節參加我們的電話會議。

We delivered solid results in the March 2024 quarter. Our March quarter results came in over the midpoint of our guidance ranges for all financial metrics. I'm pleased with the company's continued robust execution. We achieved the highest gross margin percentage since the merging of Lam with Novellus. We also continue to generate very strong free cash flow of $1.3 billion or 34% of revenue.

我們在 2024 年 3 月季度取得了穩健的業績。我們三月季度的業績超過了所有財務指標指導範圍的中點。我對公司持續強勁的執行力感到滿意。我們實現了自 Lam 與 Novellus 合併以來的最高毛利率。我們也持續產生 13 億美元的強勁自由現金流，佔營收的 34%。

Let's dive into the details of our March quarter results. Revenue for the March quarter was $3.79 billion, which was roughly flat with the prior quarter. Our deferred revenue balance at the end of the quarter was $1.75 billion, which was a decrease of $182 million from the December quarter related to revenue recognized that was tied to those customer advanced payments. I believe deferred revenue will continue to trend downwards as we continue throughout the year.

讓我們深入了解三月份季度業績的詳細資訊。三月季度的營收為 37.9 億美元，與上一季大致持平。本季末我們的遞延收入餘額為 17.5 億美元，比 12 月季度減少了 1.82 億美元，這與與客戶預付款相關的已確認收入有關。我相信，隨著全年的持續，遞延收入將繼續呈下降趨勢。

From a segment perspective, March quarter, systems revenue in Memory was 44%, which is a decrease from the prior quarter level of 48%. The decline in the Memory segment was attributable to DRAM coming in at -- excuse me, 23% of systems revenue versus the 31% that we saw in the December quarter. DRAM spending was focused on the 1-y, 1-alpha and 1-beta nodes, spending largely driven by DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory enablement.

從細分市場來看，3月季度，記憶體系統營收為44%，較上季48%的水準有所下降。記憶體領域的下滑是由於 DRAM 佔系統收入的 23%，而我們在 12 月季度看到的為 31%。 DRAM 支出主要集中在 1-y、1-alpha 和 1-beta 節點上，支出主要由 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體支援推動。

As we noted in the last quarter, nonvolatile memory WFE is increasing in 2024 but it remained at a subdued level on a mix basis for the March quarter. This segment represented 21% of our systems revenue, up from 17% in the prior quarter.

正如我們在上個季度指出的那樣，非揮發性記憶體 WFE 在 2024 年有所增長，但在 3 月季度的混合基礎上仍保持在較低水平。該部門占我們系統收入的 21%，高於上一季的 17%。

I do just want to mention one thing. We are characterizing 1 customer's investment in specialty DRAM as a nonvolatile investment since it has a nonvolatile component to the device. This might be different than what others in the industry are doing. NAND investment was driven by very modest spending in conversions to 2xx and 3xx layer devices.

我只想提一件事。我們將 1 個客戶對特種 DRAM 的投資描述為非揮發性投資，因為它具有設備的非揮發性組件。這可能與業內其他人所做的不同。 NAND 投資是由非常少量的 2xx 和 3xx 層設備轉換支出所推動的。

The Foundry segment represented 44% of our systems revenue, a slight increase from the percentage concentration in the December quarter of 38%. Growth was driven predominantly by domestic China shipments. And finally, the Logic and Other segment were 12% of our systems revenue in the March quarter, down from the prior quarter level of 14%. The decline was driven by continued mature node softness.

代工部門占我們系統收入的 44%，比 12 月所在季度的 38% 的百分比略有增加。成長主要由中國國內出貨量推動。最後，邏輯和其他部分占我們 3 月季度系統收入的 12%，低於上一季 14% 的水平。下降的原因是成熟節點持續疲軟。

Now I'll discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at 42%, up slightly from 40% in the prior quarter. While most of our China revenue continued to be from domestic Chinese customers. This was the largest quarter for multinational spending in China since mid last year. We expect spending from this region to increase year-over-year in 2024. I believe it will, however, decline as we go through the year.

現在我將討論我們總收入的地區組成。中國地區的佔比為 42%，略高於上一季的 40%。而我們大部分的中國收入仍來自中國國內客戶。這是自去年中期以來跨國公司在華支出最大的一個季度。我們預計 2024 年該地區的支出將同比增長。

Our next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 24% of revenue in the March quarter versus 19% in the December quarter. Japan and Taiwan rounded out the remainder of the top 4 regions. Our Customer Support Business Group generated revenue in the March quarter totaling approximately $1.4 billion. This was down 4% from the December quarter and 13% lower than the March quarter and calendar year 2023.

我們第二大的地域集中地是韓國，佔 3 月季度營收的 24%，而 12 月季度的營收佔 19%。日本和台灣也躋身前 4 名地區的其餘行列。我們的客戶支援業務集團在 3 月季度的營收總計約為 14 億美元。這比 12 月季度下降了 4%，比 3 月季度和 2023 年下降了 13%。

Our Reliant Systems revenue decreased in the March quarter due to continued weakness in mature node investments, partially offset by a higher level of spares. Reliant is at the lowest revenue level in the last 2 years and spares is at the highest revenue level since the end of 2022. The spares business is seeing very early signs of positive impact from utilization increases from our customers.

由於成熟節點投資持續疲軟，我們的 Reliant Systems 營收在三月季度有所下降，但部分被較高水準的備件所抵消。 Reliant 的收入水平處於過去 2 年的最低水平，而備件業務的收入水平則達到 2022 年底以來的最高水平。

Turning to the gross margin performance. The March quarter came in at 48.7%, above the midpoint of our guided range and above the December quarter level of 47.6%. The increase was primarily a result of favorable changes in product and customer mix as well as improved factory efficiencies. March quarter operating expenses were $698 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $662 million. This was due in part to expenses incurred for an extra week in the quarter, I'll remind you, it was a 14-week quarter, as well as our conscious growth in R&D spending.

轉向毛利率表現。 3 月季度的成長率為 48.7%，高於我們指引範圍的中點，也高於 12 月季度 47.6% 的水平。這一增長主要是由於產品和客戶結構的有利變化以及工廠效率的提高。 3 月季度營運支出為 6.98 億美元，高於上一季的 6.62 億美元。我提醒您，這在一定程度上是由於該季度額外一周產生的費用，這是一個為期 14 週的季度，以及我們有意識地增加了研發支出。

As Tim mentioned, we remain laser-focused on investing in R&D to extend our product and competitive differentiation. R&D as a percentage of spending was at a high watermark coming in at 71% of total spending. Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.3% and in line with the December quarter level of 30% and at the high end of our guidance range. This was primarily because of the strong gross margin performance, which was somewhat offset by the growth in R&D investment. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 11.7%, consistent with our expectations.

正如蒂姆所提到的，我們仍然專注於研發投資，以擴大我們的產品和競爭優勢。研發佔支出的百分比處於高位，佔總支出的 71%。本季的營業利潤率為 30.3%，與 12 月季度 30% 的水平一致，處於我們指導範圍的高端。這主要是因為強勁的毛利率表現，但在一定程度上被研發投資的成長所抵銷。我們本季的非 GAAP 稅率為 11.7%，與我們的預期一致。

Looking further into calendar 2024, we continue to believe the tax rate will be in the low to mid-teens, with some possible fluctuations quarter-by-quarter. Other income and expense for the March quarter came in at $10 million in income compared with $5 million in income in the December quarter. The increase in OI&E was due to higher cash balances and higher interest rates. OI&E will be subject to market-related fluctuations that could cause some level of volatility quarter-by-quarter.

進一步展望 2024 年，我們仍然認為稅率將在 15% 左右，每個季度可能會出現一些波動。 3 月份季度的其他收入和支出為 1,000 萬美元，而 12 月份季度的其他收入和支出為 500 萬美元。 OI&E 的增加是由於現金餘額增加和利率上升。 OI&E 將受到與市場相關的波動的影響，這可能會導致逐季度出現一定程度的波動。

On the capital return side of things, we allocated approximately $860 million to share repurchases, and we paid $263 million in dividends in the March quarter. Our share repurchase activity included both open market repurchases as well as an accelerated share repurchase arrangement. The ASRs continued to execute into the month of April. And I would just mention, we continue to track towards our long-term capital return plans of returning 75% to 100% of our free cash flow.

在資本回報方面，我們分配了約 8.6 億美元用於股票回購，並在 3 月季度支付了 2.63 億美元的股息。我們的股票回購活動包括公開市場回購和加速股票回購安排。 ASR 持續執行至 4 月。我只想提一下，我們將繼續致力於實現長期資本回報計劃，即返還 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流。

March quarter diluted earnings per share was $7.79, towards the higher end of our guided range. The diluted share count was 132 million shares on track with expectations and down from the December quarter. We have $1.2 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

3 月季度稀釋後每股收益為 7.79 美元，接近我們指導範圍的高端。稀釋後的股數為 1.32 億股，符合預期，但較 12 月季度下降。董事會授權的股票回購計畫還剩 12 億美元。

Let me pivot to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the March quarter totaled $5.7 billion, up a little bit from $5.6 billion at the end of the December quarter. The increase was largely due to collections with an extra week in the March quarter, offset by cash allocated to share buyback, dividend payments and capital expenditures.

讓我轉向資產負債表。截至 3 月季度末，我們的現金和短期投資總額為 57 億美元，略高於 12 月季度末的 56 億美元。這一增長主要是由於三月份季度額外一周的收款，被分配給股票回購、股息支付和資本支出的現金所抵消。

Days sales outstanding was 57 days in the March quarter, a decrease from 66 days in the December quarter. Inventory at the end of the March quarter totaled $4.3 billion, down $107 million from the December quarter level. Inventory turns remained flat from the prior quarter level at 1.8x. We are making progress in bringing inventory levels down, and we will continue to work on this throughout calendar 2024.

3 月季度的應收帳款天數為 57 天，低於 12 月季度的 66 天。 3 月季度末的庫存總額為 43 億美元，比 12 月季度水準減少 1.07 億美元。庫存週轉率與上季持平，為 1.8 倍。我們在降低庫存水準方面正在取得進展，我們將在 2024 年繼續努力。

Noncash expenses for the March quarter included approximately $77 million in equity compensation, $75 million in depreciation and $15 million in amortization. Capital expenditures in the March quarter were $104 million, down $12 million from the December quarter. Spending was primarily centered on lab expansions in the United States and Asia, supporting our global strategy to be close to our customers' development locations. We ended the March quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was flat with the prior quarter.

三月季度的非現金支出包括約 7,700 萬美元的股權補償、7,500 萬美元的折舊和 1,500 萬美元的攤提。 3月季度的資本支出為1.04億美元，比12月份季度減少1200萬美元。支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的實驗室擴建上，支持我們靠近客戶開發地點的全球策略。截至 3 月季度末，我們擁有約 17,200 名正式全職員工，與上一季持平。

Let's now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the June 2024 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, gross margin of 47.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This gross margin decline from March is reflective of a quarter-to-quarter change in customer mix. Operating margins of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This reflects our continued commitment to prioritize R&D spending. And finally, earnings per share of $7.50, plus or minus $0.75, based on a share count of approximately 131 million shares.

現在讓我們來看看 2024 年 6 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。我們預計營收為 38 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元，毛利率為 47.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。毛利率較 3 月下降反映了客戶結構的季度變化。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。這反映了我們對優先研發支出的持續承諾。最後，每股收益為 7.50 美元，正負 0.75 美元，基於約 1.31 億股的股數。

So let me wrap up. 2024 is a year of continued transformation for Lam Research. We're investing in our long-term strategy to expand our technology leadership and operational excellence while efficiently managing overall spending.

讓我總結一下。 2024 年是 Lam Research 持續轉型的一年。我們正在投資我們的長期策略，以擴大我們的技術領先地位和卓越運營，同時有效管理整體支出。

We're encouraged that the long-term drivers of semiconductor growth, such as artificial intelligence, are seeing accelerated adoption, and we expect Lam to be a strong beneficiary of these trends. We're well positioned for the architectural and material change coming, such as gate-all-around, advanced packaging, backside power delivery and the move to dry photoresist.

我們感到鼓舞的是，人工智慧等半導體成長的長期驅動力正在加速採用，我們預期林將成為這些趨勢的有力受益者。我們為即將到來的架構和材料變革做好了準備，例如環柵、先進封裝、背面電力傳輸以及轉向乾光阻。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們準備好的發言到此結束。提姆和我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

First one for Tim. Tim, a question on high aspect ratio for NAND, where you have a very high market share. And you said in your prepared comments, you defended market share there. Your company that took you to try -- introduced to visit Cryo-X product a year ago, but you also have 1 from 3 years ago. So I'm kind of curious, can you talk a little bit about the market share dynamics and high aspect ratio issue were? And the fact that some of your customers are talking about using Cryo-X for like 430 layer NAND. So can you give us some color there on high-aspect-ratio etch? And then I have a follow-up for Doug.

第一個是給提姆的。提姆，關於 NAND 高縱橫比的問題，你擁有非常高的市場佔有率。您在準備好的評論中表示，您捍衛了那裡的市場份額。帶您嘗試的公司一年前介紹過訪問 Cryo-X 產品，但您也有 3 年前的產品。所以我有點好奇，您能談談市場佔有率動態和高縱橫比問題嗎？事實上，您的一些客戶正在談論將 Cryo-X 用於 430 層 NAND。那麼您能給我們一些關於高深寬比蝕刻的顏色嗎？然後我有一個關於道格的後續行動。

Sure. Krish, on cryo etch, had a couple of data points in my prepared remarks. But one is we have an installed base of cryo etch tools used for NAND that's now approaching 1,000 chambers. So obviously, we've been in high-volume production with this application for quite some time. And my comment was that there always are customers exploring different options during the development phase.

當然。克里什（Krish）在冷凍蝕刻方面，在我準備好的發言中提供了一些數據點。但其中之一是我們擁有用於 NAND 的冷凍蝕刻工具的安裝基礎，目前已接近 1,000 個腔室。顯然，我們已經對該應用程式進行大批量生產相當長一段時間了。我的評論是，總是有客戶在開發階段探索不同的選擇。

But as my comment is, these are very complex processes to put into high-volume production. And so we continue to leverage the learning that we get working with our customers, the focus on technology extension and manufacturing readiness. And by that focus, we've been able to defend the decisions once they come to that point of the customer really having to decide which tool to commit their next fabrication line, too. And so that's all we can say is we're working hard to make sure we have the best tool for the application. And so far, it's winning the day.

但正如我的評論所述，這些都是非常複雜的流程，無法投入大量生產。因此，我們繼續利用與客戶合作所學到的知識，並專注於技術擴展和製造準備。透過這個重點，一旦客戶真正必須決定在他們的下一條生產線上使用哪種工具，我們就能夠捍衛他們的決定。因此，我們只能說，我們正在努力確保我們擁有適合該應用程式的最佳工具。到目前為止，它正在贏得勝利。

Got it. Got it. So good to hear that the share is still solid. And then a follow-up for Doug on margins. Doug, you kind of mentioned about the gross margin, maybe moderation in the June quarter due to the customer mix. Is that mainly a function of China? And how to think about gross margins in the second half? And maybe if I can extend that question how to think about OpEx into the back half of the year, too?

知道了。知道了。很高興聽到份額仍然穩固。然後是道格的後續行動。道格，您提到了毛利率，由於客戶組合，六月季度的毛利率可能會有所放緩。這主要是中國的職能嗎？下半年的毛利率又如何看待？也許我可以將這個問題延伸到今年下半年如何考慮營運支出？

Yes. Krish, I guess I'd say a couple of things. First, gross margin, sometimes it's a little bit better when we're selling to smaller customers, and I'm not going to pin it to any one geographic region necessarily. But in China, there are some smaller customers, and they tend to -- because we have volume purchase pricing sometimes, they pay a little bit more. And -- but it's not because of a geographic regions, it's because of the size of the customer. So that's one thing to think about.

是的。克里什，我想我會說幾件事。首先，毛利率，有時當我們向較小的客戶銷售時，毛利率會好一點，我不會將其固定在任何一個地理區域。但在中國，有一些較小的客戶，他們往往會——因為我們有時有批量採購定價，他們會支付更多的費用。而且——但這不是因為地理區域，而是因為客戶的規模。所以這是需要考慮的一件事。

And in my scripted remarks as well as what Tim said is we think that the China region will modulate a little bit as we go through the year. So that's part of what we need to think about. And I've been talking about this for a couple of quarters. So anyway, I have that in mind when you're updating your models.

在我的書面發言以及蒂姆所說的內容中，我們認為中國地區將在這一年中做出一些調整。所以這是我們需要考慮的一部分。我已經談論這個問題好幾個季度了。所以無論如何，當你更新模型時我會牢記這一點。

Second, we've been talking, I think, for a couple of quarters now, maybe actually 3 quarters about the need to grow R&D investment this year because of these technology changes that we see, like gate-all-around, backside power, advanced packaging and so forth, dry photoresist. And we're absolutely planning on doing that.

其次，我想，我們已經討論了幾個季度，實際上可能是三個季度，討論今年需要增加研發投資，因為我們看到了這些技術變化，例如全柵極、背面電源、先進封裝等，幹光刻膠。我們絕對計劃這樣做。

You saw that in the March quarter, R&D as a percent of total spending was the highest that I have seen here at 71%, and we intend to keep investing in R&D. So independent of whatever the top line is, we're going to grow R&D investment this year.

你看到，在 3 月的季度，研發佔總支出的百分比是我在這裡看到的最高的，達到 71%，我們打算繼續投資研發。因此，無論收入如何，我們今年都將增加研發投資。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

So I wanted to ask about China. So it's going to modulate through the year, the mix, but it sounds like it's still going to be up year-over-year for domestic China this year. So I guess my question is, we've seen some headlines on a few entities being potentially added to the entity list. And I'm wondering if these comments reflect the potential addition of these entities? Or does it basically say, hey, if the status quo remains, this is what your assumption is, meaning that if there were entities added that, that would be downside to these comments?

所以我想問中國的情況。因此，這一組合將在全年中進行調整，但聽起來今年中國國內的銷量仍將同比增長。所以我想我的問題是，我們已經看到一些有關可能添加到實體清單中的實體的頭條新聞。我想知道這些評論是否反映了這些實體的潛在添加？或者它基本上是說，嘿，如果現狀保持不變，這就是你的假設，這意味著如果有實體添加這一點，這將對這些評論產生負面影響？

Yes. Tim, I mean, obviously, we can't forecast changes in U.S. trade policy with respect to China that we don't know about. And so we're basically giving you our best view of what we think our China business will be through the rest of the year and recognizing that there could be changes that we don't foresee.

是的。提姆，我的意思是，顯然，我們無法預測我們不了解的美國對華貿易政策的變化。因此，我們基本上是在向您提供我們對今年剩餘時間我們的中國業務的最佳看法，並認識到可能會發生我們無法預見的變化。

Well, what I will say is we -- obviously, we've built up what we believe is a strong government affairs team were plugged into all the relevant discussions. And I think over the last couple of years, you've seen we have a pretty strong track record of working with the U.S. government responding to export control policy and that's just what we plan to do going on into the future.

嗯，我要說的是，顯然，我們已經建立了一個我們認為強大的政府事務團隊，並參與了所有相關的討論。我認為在過去幾年中，您已經看到我們在與美國政府合作應對出口管制政策方面擁有良好的記錄，這正是我們計劃在未來繼續做的事情。

Sure. And Doug, I just wanted to ask about service a bit. So there's much different dynamics happening in the spares and in the Reliant business. Can you talk about that because it certainly sounds -- I mean, this is kind of an odd situation that we'd have spares piece so strong and Reliant piece so weak. So can you sort of give us any read-throughs there? Like what does that mean for the future of that business?

當然。道格，我只是想問一下服務問題。因此，備件和 Reliant 業務中發生了許多不同的動態。你能談談這個嗎，因為這聽起來確實 - 我的意思是，這是一種奇怪的情況，我們的備件如此強大，而可靠的部分如此弱。那麼您能為我們提供一些通讀內容嗎？這對該業務的未來意味著什麼？

Yes. Listen, I think it's well understood right now that you've got 2 dynamics going on relative to thinking about the different components of CSBG. First, industry utilization is starting to get somewhat better. I would definitely say it's early days for that. But the reason I specifically talked about the spares level versus where it's been over the last couple of years is because of that. That clearly is beginning to show up in our spares business.

是的。聽著，我認為現在大家已經很好地理解了，相對於思考 CSBG 的不同組成部分，您有兩種動態。首先，產業利用率開始有所改善。我肯定會說現在還為時過早。但我之所以專門談論備件水準與過去幾年的情況，就是因為這個。這顯然已經開始體現在我們的備件業務中。

However, when we rate CSBG in total, we were down now because of the softness in Reliant. I also think that's pretty well understood in the industry, right? Mature node investment outside of the China region certainly is pretty soft right now. And so you have those 2 competing dynamics going on that's shown up in the CSBG line. If I was guessing, Tim, right now, CSBG is probably flattish this year from last year because of those 2 offsetting dynamics, if that helps you think about it.

然而，當我們對 CSBG 進行總體評級時，由於 Reliant 的疲軟，我們現在的評級有所下降。我也認為這在業界是很容易理解的，對吧？目前中國地區以外的成熟節點投資肯定相當疲軟。因此，CSBG 系列中顯示了這兩種相互競爭的動態。如果我猜的話，提姆，現在，由於這兩個抵消動態，CSBG 今年可能會與去年持平，如果這有助於你思考這一點。

Yes. Tim, I think the only thing I would add there is, I mean, when you think about the CSBG business a little bit longer term, I mean, clearly, we commented on utilization starting to tick up. But as we move into 2025, I think we also will see significant upgrade activity coming back in, especially in the NAND space.

是的。提姆，我想我唯一要補充的是，我的意思是，當你從更長遠的角度考慮 CSBG 業務時，我的意思是，很明顯，我們評論了利用率開始上升。但隨著我們進入 2025 年，我認為我們也將看到重大的升級活動捲土重來，尤其是在 NAND 領域。

We've talked about the fact that there is a large portion of that installed base that has not yet been moved towards the technology nodes that are most useful for our customers. And so I think that will also flow through into the CSBG business in perhaps not so much this year, but clearly, as we move into '25 and beyond.

我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即有很大一部分安裝基礎尚未轉向對我們的客戶最有用的技術節點。因此，我認為，隨著我們進入 25 年及以後，今年可能不會那麼多，但顯然，這也將流入 CSBG 業務。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Within accelerated compute and AI semiconductor segment of the market, there still seems to be a lot of constraints centered around high-bandwidth memory and tightness in colos packaging. Obviously, you guys have a very strong position here, as you mentioned, Tim. You guys previously talked about this business, this opportunity as being potentially like $1 billion per year type of revenue opportunity. But just given the strong demand pull and some of the expanding use cases, I mean, is the Lam team already on track to drive $1 billion plus in advanced packaging revenues this year? And now that the trends are in place, right, what's kind of your new or maybe revised view on the revenue opportunity here for the team over the next few years?

在加速運算和人工智慧半導體市場領域，似乎仍然存在許多圍繞高頻寬記憶體和託管封裝的嚴格性的限制。顯然，正如你所提到的，提姆，你們在這裡擁有非常強大的地位。你們之前談過這個業務，這個機會可能是每年 10 億美元的收入機會。但考慮到強勁的需求拉動和一些不斷擴大的用例，我的意思是，Lam 團隊今年是否已經有望推動先進封裝收入超過 10 億美元？現在趨勢已經就位，對吧，您對團隊未來幾年的收入機會有何新的或可能修改的看法？

Yes, Harlan, I think that you're right, there is strong pull in. I mean, obviously, we're responding as quickly as we can to the demand. Our advanced packaging shipments this year will be over $1 billion. And so that's kind of an important milestone for us.

是的，哈倫，我認為你是對的，有很強的吸引力。今年我們的先進封裝出貨量將超過 10 億美元。所以這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。

I don't know how to give you like that next milestone. Obviously, we're seeing tremendous growth in demand in this area. Our positions are strong, not only as you said, in the foundry logic side of advanced packaging, but also as we talked specifically by our very strong positions in HBM related to what we do on the packaging side of HBM.

我不知道如何給你下一個里程碑。顯然，我們看到該領域的需求大幅成長。我們的地位很強大，不僅如您所說，在先進封裝的代工邏輯方面，而且正如我們在 HBM 中與我們在 HBM 封裝方面所做的工作相關的非常強大的地位所專門談到的那樣。

And so I think it's just an area where we'll see good long-term growth we are investing again in this area. We've talked in the past about our work in the panel processing space trying to look ahead to see where the packaging market is going to go to make sure that we are fully capable of taking advantage of what we see is a real long-term secular driver for semiconductors and the equipment industry.

因此，我認為這只是一個我們將看到良好的長期成長的領域，我們將再次在該領域進行投資。我們過去曾談論過我們在面板加工領域的工作，試圖展望未來包裝市場的發展方向，以確保我們完全有能力利用我們所看到的真正的長期優勢。

Congratulations on hitting that milestone. For my follow-up question, with your customers and their spending outlooks looking more constructive as cycle dynamics continue to improve, you've got strong tailwinds on manufacturing complexity trends like the growth outlook that is quite solid, right, for the team.

恭喜您實現了這個里程碑。對於我的後續問題，隨著週期動態的持續改善，您的客戶及其支出前景看起來更具建設性，您在製造複雜性趨勢方面獲得了強大的推動力，例如對團隊來說相當穩固的增長前景。

So if I look out beyond this year and the ramp of your new Malaysia manufacturing facility, I mean, not only is it low-cost yield like you guys have mentioned, but you've got highly skilled workforce you also set up the supply chain support, infrastructure locally as well. So I don't know if it's for Tim or Doug, but is there any way to think about the incremental gross margin benefit on incremental revenues that flow out of the Malaysia factory as you start to load it?

因此，如果我展望今年以及你們新的馬來西亞製造工廠的發展，我的意思是，它不僅是你們提到的低成本產量，而且你們擁有高技能的勞動力，你們還建立了供應鏈支持，以及當地的基礎設施。所以我不知道是提姆還是道格，但是有什麼辦法可以考慮當你開始裝載時從馬來西亞工廠流出的增量收入的增量毛利率收益嗎？

Let me take the first part of it, and then I'll let Doug talk specifically about the gross margin comment. I think it's one thing that I think we're feeling very comfortable with, which is your last question was, boy, there must be a lot of demand in you've got to be ramping up for that. I think as we come into this next up cycle, we feel very well positioned relative to all the things you just talked about, the physical capacity, the trained workforce.

讓我先講第一部分，然後我將讓道格具體談談毛利率評論。我認為這是我們感到非常滿意的一件事，這就是你的最後一個問題，孩子，一定有很多需求，你必須為此而努力。我認為，當我們進入下一個上升週期時，相對於您剛才談到的所有事情，例如體能、訓練有素的勞動力，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。

The supply chain has been built up and made more resilience since the last big upturn in the industry where we saw lots of constraints. And so I think from that standpoint, we feel really good that we have executed on the operations side of the house. Now we just need to start seeing the kinds of new peak volumes that will demonstrate that externally. And I'll let Doug address your gross margin question.

自從上一次產業大好轉以來，我們看到了許多限制，供應鏈已經建立起來並變得更有彈性。因此，我認為從這個角度來看，我們對在營運方面的執行感到非常滿意。現在我們只需要開始看到能夠在外部證明這一點的新的峰值數量。我會讓道格解決你的毛利率問題。

Yes, Harlan. I guess, I'll just remind you what I've said in prior quarters, which is I don't want you to run ahead of that financial model we put out in 2020. That's still the right way to think about it. Now obviously, right now, we've got quite favorable customer mix. I don't expect that to continue. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong about that but the benefit from Malaysia after we came through the inflationary stuff and whatnot, was completely how we intend to get back to the gross margin and better than that financial model maybe we can push a little higher. Certainly, we're not going to stop staying focused on that. But that's the way to think about it is Malaysia is still into the future. It will show up when we ramp incremental volumes, and we're ready for that.

是的，哈倫。我想，我只是提醒您我在前幾個季度說過的話，即我不希望您領先於我們在 2020 年推出的財務模型。顯然，現在我們擁有相當有利的客戶組合。我不希望這種情況繼續下去。我不知道，也許我錯了，但在我們經歷了通貨膨脹之類的事情之後，馬來西亞的好處完全是我們打算恢復毛利率的方式，並且比我們可以推動的財務模式更好高一點。當然，我們不會停止對此的關注。但這就是思考問題的方式，因為馬來西亞仍處於未來。當我們增加增量時它就會出現，我們已經為此做好了準備。

Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Srini Pajjuri。

Doug, I think on the China side, just one clarification. Were you expecting China to moderate in this quarter? Did it come in better? Than you expected? And then just to go back to your comment about China moderation through the rest of the year. Any particular segment within China? I mean, is it DRAM? Or is it logic? Or is it both? If you can add some color to that, that would be helpful.

道格，我認為中國方面只需做出一個澄清。您預計本季中國經濟會放緩嗎？它來得更好嗎？超出你的預期嗎？然後回到你對今年剩餘時間中國溫和政策的評論。中國有什麼特定的細分市場嗎？我的意思是，它是 DRAM 嗎？或者說這是邏輯？或兩者兼而有之？如果您可以為其添加一些顏色，那將會很有幫助。

Yes, Srini. It came in pretty much as we expected. I suggested last quarter that it was going to continue to remain pretty good in March. So no, that was pretty much as we expected. And I don't know, like at a segment level that I've got any specific color for you relative to the China slowing a little bit in the second half. There's such a broad set of customers there that are in every segment. It's in DRAM, it's in foundry, it's in logic. And it's a broad set. So when we look at that in total, I do see it somewhat weighted here to the early part of the year, and it will modulate somewhat. But nothing specific I had to share with you from a segment standpoint.

是的，斯里尼。它的出現與我們的預期幾乎一致。上個季度我曾表示，三月的情況將持續保持良好狀態。所以不，這和我們預期的差不多。我不知道，就像在細分市場層面上，我為您提供了相對於中國下半年略有放緩的具體顏色。每個細分市場都有如此廣泛的客戶群。它存在於 DRAM 中、存在於代工廠中、存在於邏輯中。這是一個廣泛的集合。因此，當我們從總體上看時，我確實看到它在今年年初有所加權，並且會有所調整。但從細分市場的角度來看，我沒有任何東西可以與您分享的具體內容。

And then maybe for Tim, Tim. Some of your large customers got a pretty good amount of subsidies from the government recently on the CHIPS Act and other stuff outside of the U.S. as well. So I'm just wondering what sort of impact should we expect in terms of your own business as I guess, that money comes in? And any, I guess, thoughts on the timing of potential orders from this incremental funding that they're getting?

然後也許是提姆，提姆。最近，您的一些大客戶在《CHIPS 法案》和美國境外的其他方面從政府獲得了相當多的補貼。所以我只是想知道我們應該期望對你自己的業務產生什麼樣的影響，我猜，這筆錢進來了？我想，對於他們從增量資金中獲得潛在訂單的時間有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, you've seen in just even the last few weeks quite a few announcements about the CHIPS Act in the U.S. I'll also note that there are similar chips programs going on in places like Japan and obviously, a little bit further in the future in Europe and elsewhere.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，在過去的幾周里，您已經看到了很多有關美國《晶片法案》的公告。將在歐洲和其他地方進一步發展。

And so we've always said these are more of a '25, '26, '27 time frame for -- from the equipment side, especially the shorter lead time tools like we provide. So you see the fab coming up a lot of construction connectivity, you see long lead time tools go in. And then we know that our time will come. I mean -- and so I think it's still a '25, '26, '27 opportunity for us.

因此，我們總是說，從設備方面來看，這些更像是「25」、「26」、「27」的時間框架，尤其是我們提供的較短交付週期的工具。所以你會看到晶圓廠出現大量的建設連接，你會看到長交付週期的工具投入使用。我的意思是——所以我認為這對我們來說仍然是一個 25 年、26 年、27 年的機會。

But the important thing is, while that's a lot of extra money maybe what's really exciting about is most of that is targeted towards to the leading-edge nodes. And one thing about Lam's story is that we have focused a lot of R&D investment to build our position in leading-edge foundry logic. In the next generations of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory as well as, of course, continuing our strength in NAND.

但重要的是，雖然這是一大筆額外資金，但真正令人興奮的是其中大部分都是針對前沿節點的。 Lam 的故事中的一件事是，我們集中了大量的研發投資來建立我們在領先代工邏輯方面的地位。當然，在下一代 DRAM 和高頻寬記憶體中，我們將繼續保持我們在 NAND 領域的優勢。

And so as we see these new fabs come up, I mean it's not only additional spending, but it's at nodes where we believe that we will actually do better from a SAM and market share perspective. And so we're patiently waiting. But we know it's going to come. You can go visit the sites, the fab buildings are there, and they're feverishly working to get them ready for equipment.

因此，當我們看到這些新晶圓廠的出現時，我的意思是，這不僅僅是額外的支出，而且是在我們相信從SAM 和市場份額的角度來看我們實際上會做得更好的節點。所以我們正在耐心等待。但我們知道它將會到來。你可以去參觀這些地點，工廠大樓就在那裡，他們正在忙著準備設備。

Our next question comes from CJ Muse from Cancer Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自癌症菲茨杰拉德的 CJ Muse。

I guess first question, I wanted to try to get a little bit more color on your updated WFE outlook. It looks like you're taking it up by about 7 billion. You talked about that being really litho, not impacting you. So I guess should we infer from that, that you're still expecting WFE up kind of low to mid-single digits? And as part of that, how are you thinking about those 4 large drivers, particularly, I guess, 2 or 3 of them, and the growth potential there and the relative outperformance that you expect to see?

我想第一個問題是，我想嘗試對更新後的 WFE 前景進行更多了解。看起來你佔了大約 70 億美元。你談到那是真正的光刻，不會影響你。所以我想我們是否應該從中推斷出，您仍然期望 WFE 會上漲到低至中個位數？作為其中的一部分，您如何看待這 4 個主要驅動因素，尤其是其中的 2 或 3 個，以及它們的成長潛力以及您期望看到的相對優異表現？

Yes, CJ, I mean, obviously, one of our peers in the industry reported last week. We took a look at it and just have a view that we missed a little bit of what was shipping into China. That is the vast majority, if not all, of the change in WFE from our point of view. There's always some moving pieces and DRAMs maybe a little stronger, trailing-edge foundry logic is probably a little bit softer. But at the end of the day, the biggest change that we saw was litho, and we just -- we missed it a little bit because it's not part of our addressable market.

是的，CJ，我的意思是，顯然，我們的一位業內同行上週報告了這一點。我們看了一下，發現我們錯過了一些運往中國的貨物。從我們的角度來看，這即使不是全部，也是 WFE 變化的絕大多數。總是會有一些變化的部分，DRAM 可能會更強一些，後緣代工邏輯可能會更軟一些。但歸根結底，我們看到的最大變化是光刻，我們只是 - 我們有點錯過它，因為它不是我們目標市場的一部分。

I'm not sure I caught all of your -- the second part of your question, CJ. Try it one more time.

我不確定我是否聽懂了您問題的第二部分，CJ。再試一次。

Just as you think about those $1 billion-plus opportunities, particularly around advanced packaging and, I guess, including HBM within that and also gate-all-around, how you think you'll fare relative to WFE in '24?

正如您想到那些超過 10 億美元的機會，特別是在先進封裝方面，我想，包括其中的 HBM 以及全封閉，您認為 24 年相對於 WFE 的表現如何？

Yes. I think, given the mix we see in some of these technology transitions, it should be incrementally better than it was last year for sure.

是的。我認為，考慮到我們在其中一些技術轉型中看到的組合，它肯定會比去年更好。

And then just as a quick second question, I guess, third question, if I could sneak it in. You talked about normalization of China into the second half. And getting back to maybe a 46%-ish type of normalized gross margin. It sounds like China, in your mind today, is better. So I guess, what would that number be if that continues to be strong for you guys?

然後，作為一個快速的第二個問題，我想，第三個問題，我是否可以偷偷插嘴。標準化毛利率可能會回到 46% 左右。聽起來，在你今天看來，中國比較好。所以我想，如果這對你們來說繼續強勁的話，這個數字會是多少？

I guess, CJ, you got to just kind of look at where we've been, right? You're absolutely right, and thanks for mentioning the 46%. That's sort of where gross margin was after we had done some of the Malaysia stuff and before China popped up with those smaller customers. And so the fact that we're above that level is largely customer mix.

我想，CJ，你必須看看我們去過哪裡，對吧？你說得完全正確，謝謝你提到 46%。這就是我們在馬來西亞完成一些業務之後、在中國出現這些較小客戶之前的毛利率水準。因此，我們高於這一水平的事實主要是客戶組合。

And so that's how you should be thinking about it. And if we have that mix wrong, then margin kind of -- you got a couple of data points in the last couple of quarters that you can kind of solve for to understand what it might look like. It will be in that 46% to 48-plus percent range depending on what the mix looks like.

所以這就是你應該如何思考的。如果我們的混合方式有誤，那麼利潤率就會很高——你在過去幾個季度中得到了一些數據點，你可以透過解決這些數據點來了解它可能會是什麼樣子。它將在 46% 到 48% 以上的範圍內，具體取決於混合的情況。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

The first one for Tim. Tim, it's good to see some green shoots in the NAND market. You talked about double-digit spare parts growth in the NAND, and you also talked about that the AI storage inflection for high-density SSDs is in front of us. But we do not have the 3x wafers per bit offset that you're seeing on the DRAM side. So can you kind of paint for us the trajectory of the NAND improvement that you're expecting in the second half of the next year?

第一個是給提姆的。 Tim，很高興看到 NAND 市場出現一些萌芽。您談到了 NAND 的兩位數備件成長，也談到了高密度 SSD 的 AI 儲存拐點就在我們面前。但我們沒有您在 DRAM 方面看到的每比特 3 倍晶圓偏移。那麼您能否為我們描繪一下您預計明年下半年 NAND 改進的軌跡？

We're not going to give you a '25 forecast quite yet. It's way too early for that. It will be better though, right? I mean, it's improving.

我們還不會提供您 25 年的預測。現在還為時過早。不過會更好，對吧？我的意思是，情況正在改善。

Yes. Well, I guess without giving you exact numbers. I mean, clearly, we all know that the NAND spending has been incredibly weak for the last 12 to 18 months. And so we're in the very early stages of starting to see that recover. And I think if you look at what most of our -- we rely on our customer commentary that they make publicly for a lot of this, but they talk about the fact that maybe 90% of the bits they're shipping are at the leading edge.

是的。好吧，我想沒有給你確切的數字。我的意思是，顯然，我們都知道 NAND 支出在過去 12 到 18 個月中極其疲軟。因此，我們正處於開始看到復甦的早期階段。我認為，如果你看一下我們的大部分內容——我們依賴他們公開發表的客戶評論，但他們談到了這樣一個事實，即他們正在運輸的 90% 的比特可能處於領先地位邊緣。

But when we look at the installed base of our systems, that was my comment. I believe that there is still going to be a large portion of the installed base that will move forward to the next technology nodes. It's the most efficient way for our customers to do that is to upgrade what they already have.

但當我們查看系統的安裝基礎時，這是我的評論。我相信仍有很大一部分安裝基礎將邁向下一個技術節點。對我們的客戶來說，最有效的方法就是升級他們已有的產品。

And I think you'll see that move forward and, therefore, NAND WFE move up in '25. But because it comes through a large -- to a large degree, through upgrades, Lam's capture rate of every dollar of WFE spend will be much higher than in a greenfield capacity added. So when I think about Lam's opportunity to outperform in 2025 in NAND, I think it is obviously with high confidence because of the type of spending we would expect to be seen in 2025.

我認為您會看到這種情況的發展，因此 NAND WFE 在 25 年會有所上升。但由於它是在很大程度上透過升級實現的，林氏集團對 WFE 每一美元支出的捕獲率將遠高於新增產能。因此，當我想到 Lam 在 2025 年在 NAND 領域表現出色的機會時，我認為這顯然是充滿信心的，因為我們預計 2025 年會出現這樣的支出類型。

And in the other market segments, it's also pretty high because of the -- as I mentioned, the technology inflections that are occurring. And it's gate-all-around where we -- this year, we'll likely have over $1 billion of shipments into the gate-all-around technology nodes. And obviously, as gate-all-around continues to proliferate, our tools like ALD and selective etch will do better.

在其他細分市場中，這一比例也相當高，因為正如我所提到的，正在發生技術變化。今年，我們可能會向全柵技術節點交付超過 10 億美元的產品。顯然，隨著環柵技術的不斷普及，我們的 ALD 和選擇性蝕刻等工具將會做得更好。

In backside power delivery. We already talked about advanced packaging and then we obviously have out there in front of us also the work we're doing for dry photoresist processes for EUV. And so I just feel like there are a number of growth drivers for the company besides the one that is the most obvious, which is a NAND recovery in 2025.

背面供電。我們已經討論過先進封裝，顯然我們面前還有我們正在為 EUV 乾光阻製過程所做的工作。因此，我覺得除了最明顯的成長動力（2025 年 NAND 的復甦）之外，該公司還有許多成長動力。

Great. And then one for Doug. Doug, within your China, 42% of sales, you talked about multinational picking up, which came as a positive surprise to me. Can you talk about what's driving that? Are those customers not worried about incremental restrictions? Or are they just trying to upgrade some of the older technology?

偉大的。然後是道格的一張。道格，在您的中國，銷售額的 42%，您談到了跨國公司的回升，這讓我感到非常驚訝。您能談談是什麼推動了這個趨勢嗎？這些客戶不擔心增量限制嗎？或者他們只是想升級一些舊技術？

I think it's just being responsive to the demand they see relative to the capacity that's there. And yes, I said it's the highest level since mid last year. Although I do understand over position it. The vast majority of the spending in China continues to be the indigenous Chinese customer base. But I just observed it as I was going through the numbers and knowing everybody was going to be asking about China, that was something I thought I'd just mention.

我認為這只是對他們看到的相對於現有容量的需求做出回應。是的，我說過這是自去年中期以來的最高水準。雖然我確實理解它的定位。中國的絕大多數支出仍是中國本土客戶群。但我只是在查看這些數字時觀察到這一點，並且知道每個人都會詢問有關中國的問題，這就是我認為我應該提及的事情。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I wanted to ask a question on NAND as well. Tim, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the transition from tungsten to molybdenum potentially happening in the market. I suppose, over the next couple of years. Can you speak to the significance of that in terms of depth intensity and how that could impact your business over the next couple of years?

我也想問一個關於NAND的問題。提姆，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了市場上可能發生的從鎢到鉬的轉變。我想，在接下來的幾年裡。您能否談談其深度強度的重要性以及這對您未來幾年的業務有何影響？

Sure. Well, obviously, any time there's a material change requires a new system, it's an opportunity for Lam to provide that technology into the market. And so it's an important change. I mean we call it moly just because it's so hard to say molybdenum. But the change to moly has some significant device benefits. And also, I mentioned the important thing in NAND is -- I mean it's important in every element of semiconductor devices, but it's the cost and technology.

當然。顯然，每當發生重大變化需要新系統時，林就有機會將該技術推向市場。所以這是一個重要的改變。我的意思是我們稱之為鉬只是因為很難說鉬。但改用鉬有一些顯著的設備優勢。而且，我提到 NAND 中最重要的一點是——我的意思是它在半導體裝置的每個元素中都很重要，但它是成本和技術。

And so one thing that's sometimes lost is part of the transition to moly is also about enabling stack height reduction. So you can go to more layers and limit the stack height in a way that allows you to then have more productive etches, more productive deposition and other things. And so I think it's an important import inflection for the industry and an opportunity for Lam and we're well positioned to win that inflection, we believe.

因此，有時會遺失的一件事是，向鉬過渡的一部分也是為了降低堆疊高度。因此，您可以使用更多層並限制堆疊高度，使您能夠進行更有效率的蝕刻、更有效率的沉積和其他操作。因此，我認為這對該行業來說是一個重要的轉折點，對 Lam 來說也是一個機會，我們相信，我們已經做好了贏得這一拐點的準備。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on HBM you talked about your business growing more than 3x year-over-year, I think. And I think that comment was consistent with what you had communicated last quarter. based on sort of the input you have, the market intel you have, what kind of bit growth or market growth in HBM do you think that increase in your business supports in '24? And obviously, demand is very strong, but how are you thinking about supply/demand from your perspective exiting the year and into '25 in HBM?

知道了。然後，作為我對 HBM 的跟進，您談到您的業務同比增長超過 3 倍，我認為。我認為這一評論與您上季度傳達的內容一致。根據您所掌握的資訊、市場情報，您認為您的業務成長會在 24 年支援 HBM 什麼樣的位元成長或市場成長？顯然，需求非常強勁，但從 HBM 的今年退出和進入 25 世紀的角度來看，您如何看待供需關係？

Toshiya, maybe I'll give it a try. I mean when you look at overall bit demand, HBM was probably a 0.22% of it, although it's growing and adding to the broad market. But it's clearly requiring incremental investment of our SABRE 3D tool, our deep silicon etch tool. And I think it's something you're going to hear us talking about for many years to come. This form factor is going to continue to be important relative to AI enablement and feeding the GPU, the data that it needs, small today but growing quite rapidly.

Toshiya，也許我會試試看。我的意思是，當你觀察整體鑽頭需求時，HBM 可能只佔其中的 0.22%，儘管它正在成長並加入到廣闊的市場中。但這顯然需要對我們的 SABRE 3D 工具（我們的深矽蝕刻工具）進行漸進式投資。我認為這是您在未來很多年都會聽到我們談論的事情。相對於人工智慧支援和為 GPU 提供所需資料而言，這種外形尺寸將繼續發揮重要作用，雖然目前資料規模較小，但成長速度相當快。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wanted to follow up. You had mentioned that there was a customer that you're classifying as NAND that others might be classifying as DRAM. I just wanted to double click on that, if you could talk to what's going on there. Is that customer sort of doing both and people just have different classifications. Should we be thinking that there's more NAND capacity coming on in China than I had thought before? Can you just talk to that change?

我想跟進。您曾提到，您將一位客戶歸類為 NAND，而其他客戶可能會將其歸類為 DRAM。我只是想雙擊它，如果你能談談那裡發生了什麼。客戶是否同時做這兩種事情，而人們只是有不同的分類。我們是否應該認為中國的 NAND 產能比我之前想像的要多？你能談談這個變化嗎？

I guess all I'd say, Joe, is sometimes there could be a little bit of confusion. And I felt that as I was talking to people over the last quarter. So the reason I said it was, it's actually a nonvolatile device. It's got nonvolatile components. And early on, because of that, and we put everything into nonvolatile memory.

喬，我想我想說的是，有時可能會有點混亂。當我在上個季度與人們交談時，我感覺到了這一點。所以我之所以這麼說，是因為它實際上是一個非揮發性設備。它具有非揮發性組件。正因為如此，我們很早就將所有內容放入非揮發性記憶體中。

So nonvolatile memory is more than NAND. This isn't an enormous number but as big enough that I want people to hear us tell you where it is and you can go think about it. And you probably know who the customer is. I'm not going to disclose it here, but it is 1 customer in specialty DRAM.

所以非揮發性記憶體不僅僅是NAND。這不是一個巨大的數字，但足夠大，我希望人們聽到我們告訴你它在哪裡，你可以去考慮。而且您可能知道客戶是誰。我不打算在這裡透露，但它是特種 DRAM 的 1 個客戶。

Got it. And then on the Reliant business, can you talk about changes in that business as we sort of move into a lower level of utilization in trailing-edge nodes. Do you see that kind of returning to more of a refurbished tools business, where there's stuff that you're able to actually refurbish? And any ramifications we should think about for profitability there?

知道了。然後，關於 Reliant 業務，您能否談談當我們的後緣節點利用率進入較低水平時該業務的變化。您是否看到這種情況更多地回歸到翻新工具業務，那裡有您能夠真正翻新的東西？我們應該考慮那裡的盈利能力的任何影響嗎？

Yes. I guess I'll just comment on -- we haven't -- I would be surprised if we move back towards a customer's divesting of equipment from fabs and us being able to refurbish those tools. I think you could see, obviously, the ebbs and flows with demand of how many new tools we ship. But I think it still remains mostly as a new tool, trailing-edge node business for us.

是的。我想我只會評論——我們沒有——如果我們回到客戶從晶圓廠剝離設備的方向，而我們能夠翻新這些工具，我會感到驚訝。我想你顯然可以看到我們發布的新工具的需求的起伏。但我認為它仍然主要作為我們的新工具、後緣節點業務。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

Doug, I wanted to go back to something you just mentioned here around the relative capital intensity of upgrades versus greenfield investments for NAND as you get into '25. And I get the idea that you should take a larger share of upgrades. But am I thinking about this wrong? Like wouldn't be the absolute amount of WFE in an upgrade-driven cycle to be a lot lower than if it was in the greenfield cycle? Like how do I think about the puts and takes of those 2 variables in the context of NAND growth into 2025?

Doug，我想回到您剛才提到的關於 25 世紀 NAND 升級與綠地投資的相對資本強度的話題。我認為你應該承擔更大份額的升級。但我這樣想有錯嗎？升級驅動週期中的 WFE 絕對數量不會比綠地週期低很多嗎？例如，在 NAND 成長到 2025 年的背景下，我如何看待這兩個變數的看跌期權和拿取期權？

Sure, Stacy, I'll take that. I was actually the one that -- this is Tim. He said he needs to comment. Yes, no problem. I just wanted to own it in case you disagree, but it's -- I think you're thinking about it exactly right. I mean the reason upgrades are so attractive for customers is the total WFE spend is lower. That's why they upgrade the installed base.

當然，史黛西，我會接受的。我實際上就是——這是提姆。他說他需要發表評論。是沒有問題。我只是想擁有它，以防萬一你不同意，但我認為你的想法完全正確。我的意思是升級對客戶如此有吸引力的原因是 WFE 總支出較低。這就是他們升級安裝基礎的原因。

And so for my -- comment was specifically about Lam's outperformance relative to whatever WFE is for the industry next year. And so in an upgrade-heavy cycle, which, obviously, we haven't had for the last 2 years, in that next cycle of NAND upgrades, we're saying we would capture a higher percentage of whatever that WFE is.

因此，我的評論特別是關於 Lam 相對於明年的 WFE 產業表現的優異表現。因此，在一個頻繁升級的周期中（顯然，我們在過去兩年中從未經歷過這樣的情況），在下一個 NAND 升級週期中，我們表示我們將獲得更高比例的 WFE。

Now we've said in the past that Lam's opportunity -- actually, because of that much higher capture rate, is not so different in terms of revenue for every bit added through an upgrade versus a greenfield. So WFE comes down, that's why it's attractive for customers. But for Lam, we capture almost the same amount of revenue because of the much higher capture rate. And so it kind of goes both ways.

現在我們過去說過，林的機會——實際上，由於捕獲率高得多，透過升級與綠地增加的每一位收入相比，並沒有那麼不同。所以WFE下降了，這就是它對客戶有吸引力的原因。但對於 Lam 來說，我們獲得的收入幾乎相同，因為捕獲率要高得多。所以這是雙向的。

So you're indifferent to like an upgrade cycle versus a greenfield cycle?

那麼您對升級週期與綠地週期不感興趣嗎？

Well, I would say -- the only thing I would say is because there's been lots of questions about whether Lam's market share in defense and others, we're not quite indifferent because the power of the installed base is that, again, when the customers preferred path is to upgrade what they already have, means that the positions don't change. And so Lam's very strong position carries forward in that case. So agnostic from a financial perspective, but obviously, our position in the industry continues to strengthen through each of those upgrade cycles.

好吧，我想說——我唯一想說的是，因為人們對林鄭月娥在國防和其他領域的市場份額是否有很多疑問，我們並不是完全無動於衷，因為安裝基礎的力量再次在於，當客戶首選的途徑是升級他們已有的產品，這意味著位置不會改變。因此，在這種情況下，林鄭月娥的強勢地位得以延續。從財務角度來看，這是不可知的，但顯然，我們在產業中的地位在每個升級週期中都在不斷加強。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. My follow-up, again, I wanted to go back to the segment expectations in China. So I know this -- I think it was Doug who said you didn't have anything to tell us on segments. But if I look at your slide deck, on Slide 5, I'm -- unless I'm reading it wrong, it does seem to suggest that you see it says sustained investment in domestic China for DRAM in calendar '24 and weakness in foundry logic. So is that actually what you're expecting, the China degradation in foundry logic and DRAM sustaining? Or is this slide -- am I just reading the slide wrong?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。我的後續行動，我想再次回到中國的細分市場期望。所以我知道這一點——我認為是道格說你在片段上沒有什麼可告訴我們的。但如果我看一下你的幻燈片，在幻燈片 5 上，除非我讀錯了，否則它似乎確實表明你看到它說 24 年中國國內對 DRAM 的持續投資以及 2019 年 DRAM 的疲軟代工邏輯。那麼，中國代工邏輯和 DRAM 持續衰退，這真的是您所期望的嗎？還是這張投影片——我只是讀錯投影片了？

Yes. No. Stacy, you kind of have 1 customer in China DRAM. So I got to be careful talking about that. China is going to modulate through the year, right? It's not going to stay at 42% is the statement that I made, and it's going to modulate in every segment, I believe, in the China region.

是的。不，史黛西，你在中國 DRAM 有 1 個客戶。所以我必須小心談論這個。中國將全年進行調整，對嗎？我說過，它不會停留在 42%，我相信，在中國地區，它會在每個細分市場中進行調整。

Okay. And the slide says just to expect -- led by HBM's sustained investment in reference to China under DRAM. So that's not what's going to happen?

好的。幻燈片顯示，這一切都在意料之中——以 HBM 對中國 DRAM 的持續投資為主導。那麼這不是會發生的事情嗎？

Unfortunately, I don't have the slides in front of me right now, Stacy. We're having some technical challenges. It's all going to model in.

不幸的是，史黛西，我面前現在沒有幻燈片。我們面臨一些技術挑戰。一切都將被模型化。

Slide 5, when you pull it up.

當您將其拉起時，滑動 5。

Yes, no problem. Thanks, Stacy.

是沒有問題。謝謝，史黛西。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

I wanted to revisit your comment about spares doubling. How important is that data point? Like what were you expecting instead versus the actual result? And how much does it increase your confidence about NAND recovery? Because you're not really increasing the WFE expectations for this year, right? So on surface, this comment about spares doubling sounds like a very important data point, but I'm not sure how to quite put that in context of what it means for Lam this year.

我想重新審視您關於備件加倍的評論。該數據點有多重要？例如你的預期與實際結果是什麼？它在多大程度上增強了您對 NAND 恢復的信心？因為你並沒有真正提高今年的 WFE 預期，對吧？因此，從表面上看，關於備件翻倍的評論聽起來像是一個非常重要的數據點，但我不確定如何將其與今年對林的意義聯繫起來。

Okay. Well, first, we didn't say spares would double. We said that it was a double-digit percent growth quarter-on-quarter in our spares revenue, so not doubling. But I think that, in general, I mean, the way we look at that and why we made that comment, obviously, it's positive for us to see spares move up.

好的。好吧，首先，我們並沒有說備件會翻倍。我們說過，我們的備件收入季度環比增長了兩位數，所以不是翻倍。但我認為，總的來說，我的意思是，我們看待這個問題的方式以及我們為什麼做出這樣的評論，顯然，看到備件的上漲對我們來說是積極的。

If you think -- go back in our commentary previously about CSBG over the last few years, we've said spares revenue will grow year-on-year because the installed base itself grows. However, through this downturn, the cuts in fab utilization were so severe that we actually saw spares revenue come down, which surprised us a bit, so maybe to your point of expectations.

如果您認為 - 回到我們之前關於過去幾年 CSBG 的評論，我們已經說過，由於安裝基礎本身的增長，備件收入將逐年增長。然而，在這次經濟低迷時期，晶圓廠利用率的削減如此嚴重，以至於我們實際上看到備件收入下降，這讓我們有點驚訝，所以也許符合您的預期。

We knew that as soon as customers started to utilize the fabs and bring some of the tools back online, we would see spares increase. We said that would be the first sign that the end market was really starting to improve. And so the reason we called it out was that, obviously, it's -- it further confirms, I think, what you're hearing from our customers, which is that utilization is starting to improve.

我們知道，一旦客戶開始使用晶圓廠並將一些工具恢復在線，我們就會看到備件增加。我們說這將是終端市場真正開始改善的第一個跡象。因此，我們提出這一點的原因是，顯然，我認為，它進一步證實了您從我們的客戶那裡聽到的，即利用率正在開始提高。

It doesn't tie to WFE because utilization of what you have is one issue. When you choose to spend more to either upgrade technology or add capacity is a second decision. We've said that, that is likely still more of a 2025 event on the equipment spend side. But you have to get the first indication, which is utilization improvement, spares improving and then the rest would come.

它與 WFE 無關，因為如何利用你所擁有的資源是一個問題。當您選擇花費更多來升級技術或增加容量時，這是第二個決定。我們已經說過，這可能更像是 2025 年設備支出方面的事件。但你必須得到第一個跡象，就是利用率的提高、備件的改善，然後剩下的就會出現。

And then the other thing on the call, I believe, Doug, you mentioned CSBG will be flat year earlier? Or did I not hear that properly? Or did you mean it sequentially? Or did you mean it for this calendar year? Because if it is for the calendar year, that implies pretty strong kind of mid-teens growth in the second half. So if you could clarify what you said about CSBG growth and whatever time frame you were referring to?

然後電話會議上的另一件事，我相信，Doug，你提到 CSBG 會在一年前持平？還是我沒聽清楚？還是你是照順序說的？或者您是指今年的情況嗎？因為如果是歷年，這意味著下半年將出現相當強勁的十幾歲左右的增長。那麼，您能否澄清一下您所說的關於 CSBG 成長的內容以及您所指的時間框架？

Yes, I said flat-ish, plus or minus flat. And by the way, that's not a new disclosure. We said that last quarter as well.

是的，我說的是持平，加減持平。順便說一句，這並不是一個新的披露。我們上個季度也這麼說過。

For this calendar year or for...

對於本日曆年或...

Correct. For this calendar year, yes.

正確的。今年，是的。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的克里斯·卡索。

I guess the first question is on DRAM. And could you perhaps talk about some of the moving parts that are going on with that right now? And I think in a previous question, you talked about the China part of DRAM, expecting that to moderate through the year. Obviously, the direct revenue from HBM sounds good. But there's a broader capacity question going on in DRAM that's fungible with HBM. Could you talk about what your expectations are for that as the year progresses?

我想第一個問題是關於 DRAM 的。您能否談談目前正在進行的一些活動？我想在上一個問題中，您談到了 DRAM 的中國部分，預計這一情況將在今年有所放緩。顯然，來自 HBM 的直接收入聽起來不錯。但 DRAM 中存在一個更廣泛的容量問題，可與 HBM 互換。您能否談談您對這一年的期望是什麼？

Yes. Let me start. I think just to address this one point about the fungibility of capacity. You're correct. Obviously, if you're looking at DDR5, I think we've made a couple of comments in the past though. One, we're talking specifically about the additional tools that are needed to enable HBM. And so that's why we talk about our electroplating and our Syndion silicon etch tools because those are added to whatever capacity you might have for DRAM, you need to add those tools to make HBM possible. And so that's what we're seeing rise by 3x this year.

是的。讓我開始吧。我想只是為了解決關於容量可替代性的這一點。你是對的。顯然，如果您關注的是 DDR5，我想我們過去已經發表過一些評論。第一，我們具體討論啟用 HBM 所需的其他工具。這就是我們談論電鍍和 Syndion 矽蝕刻工具的原因，因為這些工具會添加到您可能擁有的 DRAM 容量中，您需要添加這些工具才能使 HBM 成為可能。這就是我們今年看到的 3 倍成長的情況。

On the second side, when you add -- when you go from conventional DRAM to HBM, our customers have talked about and the industry has talked about the much larger die size because you've had to create the real estate that's needed to add the TSVs. And so while you may be able to translate some of the same DRAM equipment over to produce the same number of bits, you'll need more of that equipment as well. So there's -- those are the key drivers as you're moving for additional spending growth as you move into HBM DRAM.

另一方面，當您添加時，當您從傳統 DRAM 轉向 HBM 時，我們的客戶已經討論過，業界也已經討論了更大的晶片尺寸，因為您必須創建添加所需的空間。因此，雖然您可能能夠將一些相同的 DRAM 裝置轉換為產生相同數量的比特，但您還需要更多的裝置。因此，當您轉向 HBM DRAM 時，這些是您尋求額外支出成長的關鍵驅動因素。

Got it. As a follow-up, you made in your prepared remarks a comment talking about $1 billion in revenue from gate-all-around this year. Could you talk about that in context of where the overall opportunity is for gate-all-around? Is this -- is that $1 billion represent what you would consider to be gate-all-around capacity? Is that just getting the processes started? Kind of where are we with that gate-all-around ramp?

知道了。作為後續行動，您在準備好的演講中發表了有關今年 Gate-all-around 收入 10 億美元的評論。您能談談環閘的整體機會在哪裡嗎？這 10 億美元是否代表了您所認為的全網容量？這只是讓流程開始嗎？那個環繞大門的坡道我們現在在哪裡？

Yes. I mean I think it's -- we're really just starting at gate-all-around. Our comment was $1 billion of shipments into the gate-all-around nodes this year. And it's across all of our types of products that help enable gate-all-around smaller technology nodes. And so what we've said is that every technology node, etch and depth intensity grows and our SAM opportunity expands.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——我們真的才剛開始。我們的評論是今年全柵節點的出貨量為 10 億美元。我們所有類型的產品都有助於實現全方位的小型技術節點。因此，我們所說的是，每個技術節點、蝕刻和深度強度都會成長，我們的 SAM 機會也會擴大。

And so gate-all-around, being an important node where there's need for new tools from Lam, like in our selective etch product portfolio or in our ALD product portfolio, that might not have existed to the same degree in prior nodes. And so that's -- those are the areas where we're seeing growth as well as just growth in the rest of our advanced technology products in HBM.

因此，作為一個重要的節點，需要 Lam 提供的新工具，例如在我們的選擇性蝕刻產品組合或 ALD 產品組合中，這在先前的節點中可能不會以相同的程度存在。因此，這些是我們看到成長的領域，以及 HBM 中其他先進技術產品的成長。

Operator, we'll take 1 more question.

接線員，我們再回答 1 個問題。

Our next and final question comes from Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個也是最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

The company has previously discussed an incremental $1 billion to $1.5 billion increased the WFE for every 1% AI server penetration. Last year, given the underutilization of capacity and the focus on conversion activity, maybe the math was lower last year. But now that utilization rates for advanced foundry and DRAM nodes have recovered. Do you see AI growth, I guess, driving spending levels more consistent with that $1 billion to $1.5 billion? And do you already see that maybe playing out to some degree in your order backlog?

該公司先前曾討論過，人工智慧伺服器滲透率每提高 1%，WFE 就會增加 10 億至 15 億美元。去年，考慮到產能利用不足以及對轉換活動的關注，去年的數學數字可能較低。但現在先進代工和 DRAM 節點的利用率已經恢復。我想，您是否認為人工智慧的成長會推動支出水準與 10 億至 15 億美元更加一致？您是否已經看到這可能在某種程度上在您的訂單積壓中發揮作用？

Yes, Brian, we're not going to talk about order backlog. But the statements we made, and you've got it right, which was for every percent that is an AI server versus an enterprise class server because of the 8x DRAM, much bigger logic die, the GPUs and the 3x NAND, did some $1 billion to $1.5 billion incremental WFE, and that's absolutely still how we see it. And -- but you're right, like if things are underutilized, you don't need to spend nearly as much, but that's a temporary situation. Eventually, things get back to being utilized.

是的，布萊恩，我們不會談論訂單積壓。但我們所做的陳述是正確的，即人工智慧伺服器與企業級伺服器相比，由於8 倍DRAM、更大的邏輯晶片、GPU 和3 倍NAND，每百分之一的成本都賺了1 美元。而且 - 但你是對的，就像如果東西沒有得到充分利用，你不需要花那麼多錢，但這只是暫時的情況。最終，東西會重新被利用。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just kind of a follow-up on the last follow-up. But again, of that $1 billion kind of shipment for gate-all-around in 2024 calendar year, how much of that is second half weighted? Is it more kind of pilot production? Or how much is it pilot versus high volume?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是上次後續行動的後續行動。但同樣，在 2024 年全年 10 億美元的出貨量中，有多少是下半年加權的？更像是試生產嗎？或者試行與大批量的對比是多少？

Yes, we're not going to give color on exactly when we're shipping just because we figure that's more for our customers in terms of their expansion on those nodes.

是的，我們不會具體說明我們何時發貨，因為我們認為這對我們的客戶在這些節點上的擴展來說更有利。

Okay. Fair enough. So it's probably fair if it's more second half biased.

好的。很公平。因此，如果下半場更加偏向的話，這可能是公平的。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

That concludes our remarks, guys. Thanks for joining the call.

夥計們，我們的發言到此結束。感謝您加入通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。