科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research March 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2024 年 3 月財報電話會議。 （操作說明）另請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ram Ganesh, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

現在，我想把發言權交給投資人關係主管拉姆·加內什先生。先生，請您發言。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 的季度財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the March 2024 quarter and our outlook for the June 2024 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對當前商業環境的概述，並回顧2024年3月季度的財務業績以及對2024年6月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿已於太平洋時間下午1點後不久發布。您也可以在公司網站的投資者關係頁面找到該新聞稿以及本次電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see the accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，這些風險和不確定性因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的公開文件中披露。請參閱簡報中的相關投影片以取得更多資訊。除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）為基礎。 GAAP和非GAAP業績之間的詳細調整表可在簡報中的相關幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon. We're having some technical difficulties posting our earnings call slides externally. We will try to post it as the call is going on. If not, we will post it on our website after this call.

本次電話會議預計將於太平洋時間下午3點結束。會議錄音將於今天下午晚些時候提供。我們目前在向外部發布財報電話會議投影片時遇到了一些技術問題。我們將嘗試在會議進行期間發布幻燈片。如果無法發布，我們將在會議結束後將其發佈在我們的網站上。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

那麼，我就把電話交給提姆了。

Thanks, Ram, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Lam is off to a strong start in calendar 2024, with revenues, profitability, and earnings per share for the March quarter all exceeding the midpoint of our guidance. These results, as well as our outlook for the June quarter, point to Lam's solid execution in an industry environment that is progressing much as we predicted in our January call.

謝謝Ram，也謝謝今天所有參與我們討論的各位。 Lam在2024年開局強勁，3月份季度的營收、獲利能力和每股盈餘都超過了我們先前預期的中位數。這些業績以及我們對6月季度的展望都表明，Lam在行業環境中表現出色，而行業發展也正如我們在1月的電話會議上所預測的那樣。

Today, we see industry WFE spending for calendar 2024 in the low to mid-$90 billion range, with the modest increase from our prior view, driven mainly by additional lithography shipments into China. We see no meaningful change to our outlook for Lam's overall 2024 revenue profile. From an industry perspective, DRAM remains strong with WFE spending driven by growing demand for high-bandwidth memory and sustained investment in domestic China.

我們預計，2024 年產業晶圓廠設備 (WFE) 支出將在 900 億美元左右，較我們先前的預期略有成長，主要得益於中國光刻設備出貨量的增加。我們對 Lam 公司 2024 年整體營收預期基本保持不變。從產業角度來看，DRAM 市場依然強勁，晶圓廠設備支出成長主要受高頻寬記憶體需求成長和中國國內持續投資的推動。

In foundry logic, growth in leading-edge spending this year is being partially offset by a decline in mature node spending outside of domestic China. Domestic China spending is running higher than we had previously expected. However, we still see it being first half weighted, with Lam's revenue contribution from China declining as the year progresses.

從晶圓代工的角度來看，今年前沿晶片支出成長的部分被中國以外地區成熟節點支出的下降所抵消。中國國內的支出高於我們先前的預期。然而，我們仍然認為這主要集中在上半年，隨著時間的推移，Lam在中國的收入貢獻將會下降。

In NAND, we continue to expect year-on-year growth in WFE spending in calendar 2024. Encouragingly, we have seen an uptick in fab utilization. And in the March quarter, this has translated into double-digit percent growth quarter-over-quarter in our spares revenues. As supply and demand continues to normalize through the remainder of the year, we see a strong setup developing for 2025 NAND spending.

在NAND領域，我們預計2024年晶圓廠設備（WFE）支出將維持年增。令人鼓舞的是，我們看到晶圓廠利用率有所提升。在3月份的季度中，這轉化為我們備件收入兩位數的環比增長。隨著供需在今年剩餘時間內持續趨於正常化，我們預計2025年NAND支出將呈現強勁成長動能。

As we move toward a broader WFE recovery, Lam stands to benefit from powerful secular drivers of semiconductor growth and innovation. Generative AI and other emerging smart applications are built on a foundation of semiconductor technology and are expected to deliver trillions of dollars of economic benefit at a global level over the next decade.

隨著WFE產業全面復甦，Lam有望受益於半導體產業強勁的成長和創新勢頭。生成式人工智慧和其他新興智慧應用都建立在半導體技術的基礎上，預計未來十年將在全球帶來數兆美元的經濟效益。

AI's transformative use cases, foreseen in both consumer and enterprise markets, are only in the early stages of realization, and we believe that significant investment in semiconductor manufacturing capacity will be required to satisfy the coming demand for advanced compute, memory and storage. In this environment, the winners will be the equipment companies that can accelerate the pace of technology advancement, while, at the same time, deliver innovations that disrupt the rising cost and complexity of semiconductor fabrication.

人工智慧在消費和企業市場都具有變革性的應用前景，但目前這些應用仍處於早期實現階段。我們認為，要滿足未來對先進運算、記憶體和儲存的需求，必須對半導體製造能力進行大量投資。在這種環境下，能夠加速技術進步，同時又能提供創新解決方案，進而降低半導體製造成本和複雜性的設備公司，將成為最終的贏家。

To this end, Lam is investing in 2 differentiated approaches. First, we are putting more capabilities and resources close to our customers to strengthen collaboration. And second, we are leveraging Lam's proprietary Semiverse Solutions' digital twin capabilities to reduce the time and cost of technology development.

為此，Lam公司正採取兩種差異化策略。首先，我們將更多能力和資源投入更貼近客戶的工作中，以加強合作。其次，我們將利用Lam公司專有的Semiverse Solutions數位孿生技術，降低技術開發的時間與成本。

Already, we are seeing Lam's distributed R&D footprint having a positive effect. In the past quarter, we've used our customer-centric lab investments in Korea, Taiwan and the U.S. to accelerate cycles of learning on new applications, resulting in important wins for Lam in both DRAM and foundry logic advanced packaging.

我們已經看到Lam公司分散式研發局產生了正面影響。上個季度，我們利用在韓國、台灣和美國以客戶為中心的實驗室投資，加速了新應用領域的學習週期，最終為Lam公司在DRAM和晶圓代工邏輯先進封裝領域贏得了重要訂單。

With respect to Semiverse Solutions, we leverage a portfolio of digital twins created at the scale of the device, the process and the reactor, to model complex interactions that influence tool performance and productivity. Lam's engineers now regularly use these capabilities to optimize multidimensional etch and deposition process recipes faster and with less on-tool wafer experimentation.

在Semiverse Solutions方面，我們利用一系列在裝置、製程和反應器層面創建的數位孿生模型，來模擬影響設備性能和生產率的複雜交互作用。 Lam的工程師現在經常使用這些功能來更快地優化多維蝕刻和沈積製程配方，並減少晶圓上的實驗次數。

Turning to demand related to AI. The early impact has been most prominent in DRAM and foundry logic. We believe, however, that AI's impact on storage is still ahead and represents a key vector of long-term growth for our NAND business. More advanced AI applications need faster, more power-efficient and higher-density NAND storage. NAND-based enterprise solid-state drives, or eSSDs, are 50x faster in read/write capability, 2 to 5x more power efficient and use 50% less space at the system level compared to hard disk drives or HDDs.

再來看看與人工智慧相關的需求。早期影響主要體現在DRAM和晶片代工邏輯領域。但我們相信，人工智慧對儲存的影響尚未完全顯現，它將成為我們NAND業務長期成長的關鍵驅動力。更先進的人工智慧應用需要速度更快、能源效率更高、密度更大的NAND儲存。與傳統硬碟（HDD）相比，基於NAND的企業級固態硬碟（eSSD）讀寫速度提升50倍，能源效率提升2到5倍，系統級空間佔用減少50%。

Today, over 80% of enterprise data is stored on HDDs. And we expect this mix to shift in favor of SSDs as NAND capability and cost continues to improve. This is where Lam is playing a key role by enabling technologies, which are critical for both performance and cost scaling. In deposition, for example, Lam is leading the transition from tungsten to molybdenum in the word line to improve device access time and reduce stack height per storage cell.

如今，超過 80% 的企業資料儲存在機械硬碟 (HDD) 上。我們預計，隨著 NAND 快閃記憶體的效能和成本不斷提升，這一比例將逐漸向固態硬碟 (SSD) 傾斜。 Lam 公司正透過其推動的技術發展，在這一過程中發揮關鍵作用，這些技術對於性能和成本的擴展都至關重要。例如，在沉積製程方面，Lam 公司正引領字線中鎢到鉬的轉變，以縮短裝置存取時間並降低每個儲存單元的堆疊高度。

In etch, Lam is using high-aspect-ratio cryogenic etch to enhance productivity of memory hole formation. Today, we are approaching 1,000 cryo-etched chambers in our high-volume manufacturing installed base.

在蝕刻製程方面，Lam公司採用高深寬比低溫蝕刻技術來提高記憶體孔的形成效率。目前，我們已在大批量生產設備中安裝了近1000個低溫蝕刻腔室。

In partnership with our customers, we're using the tremendous amount of data coming from this installed base to rapidly improve technology and cost at each successive layer transition in NAND. Recently, we combined the learning from the installed base with the capabilities of our Semiverse Solutions' simulation tools to further strengthen our differentiation. As a result of our accelerated innovation, we have defended every NAND high-aspect-ratio memory hole etch production decision made so far by customers.

我們與客戶攜手合作，利用龐大的已安裝設備數據，在NAND快閃記憶體的每一層轉換過程中快速改進技術並降低成本。近期，我們將從已安裝設備中獲得的經驗與Semiverse Solutions模擬工具的強大功能相結合，進一步增強了我們的差異化優勢。由於我們加速的創新，我們為客戶迄今為止做出的每項NAND高深寬比記憶體孔蝕刻生產決策提供了有力支持。

With respect to DRAM, AI servers use high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to increase read/write speed and reduce server power consumption. HBM stacks multiple DRAM dies using TSVs, enabling 15x more data throughput than standard DRAM. However, HBM also requires an approximate threefold increase in wafers per bit compared to conventional memory.

就DRAM而言，AI伺服器使用高頻寬記憶體（HBM）來提高讀寫速度並降低伺服器功耗。 HBM利用TSV技術堆疊多個DRAM晶片，資料吞吐量比標準DRAM高出15倍。然而，與傳統記憶體相比，HBM也需要每個位元使用大約三倍的晶圓。

With this in mind, it's important that our SABRE 3D and Syndion tools not only provide best-in-class plating and etch capabilities, but also deliver industry-leading throughput and productivity to keep overall costs low for our customers. We are the leading player in TSV applications for HBM and expect our HBM-related shipments to grow more than 3x in calendar year 2024.

有鑑於此，我們的 SABRE 3D 和 Syndion 設備不僅要提供一流的電鍍和蝕刻能力，還要具備業界領先的吞吐量和生產效率，從而幫助客戶降低整體成本。我們是 HBM 的 TSV 應用領域的領導企業，預計到 2024 年，我們與 HBM 相關的出貨量將成長三倍以上。

Finally, on the foundry logic side. Lam tools, including selective etch and ALD, are well positioned to help enable the move from FinFET to gate-all-around, a key transition needed to improve transistor performance per watt by 15% to 20%. We see our shipments for gate-all-around nodes in calendar year 2024 exceeding $1 billion.

最後，我們來看看代工邏輯方面。 Lam 工具，包括選擇性蝕刻和原子層沉積 (ALD) 設備，能夠很好地助力從 FinFET 向環柵 (GAA) 製程的過渡，這是將電晶體每瓦性能提升 15% 至 20% 的關鍵轉型。我們預計，到 2024 年，環柵製程節點的出貨量將超過 10 億美元。

Lam tools are also enabling foundry logic inflections such as backside power delivery, molybdenum interconnects and dry photoresist processes for EUV patterning. Our traction with customers is strong on these inflections, and together, they represent a multibillion-dollar growth opportunity for Lam as AI drives a greater need for faster, more power-efficient devices.

Lam 的工具也推動了代工邏輯製程的革新，例如背面供電、鉬互連以及用於 EUV 光刻的乾式微膠製程。我們在這些革新領域與客戶的合作進展順利，隨著人工智慧推動對速度更快、能源效率更高的裝置的更大需求，這些革新共同為 Lam 帶來了數十億美元的成長機會。

To conclude, the proliferation of AI, the global push for localized chip manufacturing capacity and the ubiquity of semiconductors in new consumer and commercial products represent powerful secular drivers for Lam and the rest of the semiconductor equipment industry in the years ahead. We are pleased with the company's execution and our results in the March quarter and remain focused on our opportunity to outperform through this next leg of industry growth.

總之，人工智慧的普及、全球對本地化晶片製造能力的追求以及半導體在新型消費品和商用產品中的廣泛應用，都將成為未來幾年推動Lam公司及整個半導體設備行業發展的強勁長期動力。我們對公司在三月季度的業績和執行情況感到滿意，並將繼續專注於把握機遇，在下一輪行業成長中取得優異表現。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Doug.

謝謝，現在我把麥克風交給道格。

Great. Thanks, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining our call today during what I know is a busy earnings season.

太好了。謝謝，蒂姆。大家下午好，感謝各位在今天這個繁忙的財報季參加我們的電話會議。

We delivered solid results in the March 2024 quarter. Our March quarter results came in over the midpoint of our guidance ranges for all financial metrics. I'm pleased with the company's continued robust execution. We achieved the highest gross margin percentage since the merging of Lam with Novellus. We also continue to generate very strong free cash flow of $1.3 billion or 34% of revenue.

我們在2024年3月季度取得了穩健的業績。所有財務指標均超出我們先前預期範圍的中位數。我對公司持續強勁的執行力感到滿意。我們實現了Lam與Novellus合併以來最高的毛利率。此外，我們持續保持非常強勁的自由現金流，達到13億美元，佔營收的34%。

Let's dive into the details of our March quarter results. Revenue for the March quarter was $3.79 billion, which was roughly flat with the prior quarter. Our deferred revenue balance at the end of the quarter was $1.75 billion, which was a decrease of $182 million from the December quarter related to revenue recognized that was tied to those customer advanced payments. I believe deferred revenue will continue to trend downwards as we continue throughout the year.

讓我們深入了解三月季度的業績。三月季度的營收為37.9億美元，與上一季基本持平。季度末的遞延收入餘額為17.5億美元，較去年12月份減少了1.82億美元，主要是由於確認了與客戶預付款相關的收入。我認為，隨著全年的推進，遞延收入將繼續呈下降趨勢。

From a segment perspective, March quarter, systems revenue in Memory was 44%, which is a decrease from the prior quarter level of 48%. The decline in the Memory segment was attributable to DRAM coming in at -- excuse me, 23% of systems revenue versus the 31% that we saw in the December quarter. DRAM spending was focused on the 1-y, 1-alpha and 1-beta nodes, spending largely driven by DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory enablement.

從業務部門來看，3 月季度記憶體業務系統營收佔比為 44%，低於上一季的 48%。記憶體業務收入下滑的主要原因是 DRAM 業務收入佔比僅為 23%，而去年 12 月的比例為 31%。 DRAM 支出主要集中在 1 年過程、1-alpha 流程和 1-beta 製程節點，支出主要由 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體的普及推動。

As we noted in the last quarter, nonvolatile memory WFE is increasing in 2024 but it remained at a subdued level on a mix basis for the March quarter. This segment represented 21% of our systems revenue, up from 17% in the prior quarter.

正如我們在上個季度所指出的，非揮發性記憶體WFE在2024年將有所成長，但就3月的季度來看，其整體成長水準仍然較為低迷。此業務類股占我們系統營收的21%，高於上一季的17%。

I do just want to mention one thing. We are characterizing 1 customer's investment in specialty DRAM as a nonvolatile investment since it has a nonvolatile component to the device. This might be different than what others in the industry are doing. NAND investment was driven by very modest spending in conversions to 2xx and 3xx layer devices.

我只想提一點。我們將一位客戶對特種DRAM的投資定義為非揮發性投資，因為該裝置包含非揮發性組件。這可能與業內其他公司的做法有所不同。 NAND投資主要源自於向2xx和3xx層裝置轉換的少量支出。

The Foundry segment represented 44% of our systems revenue, a slight increase from the percentage concentration in the December quarter of 38%. Growth was driven predominantly by domestic China shipments. And finally, the Logic and Other segment were 12% of our systems revenue in the March quarter, down from the prior quarter level of 14%. The decline was driven by continued mature node softness.

晶圓代工業務占我們系統總營收的44%，較去年12月季的38%略有成長。成長主要得益於中國國內出貨量的成長。最後，邏輯及其他業務占我們系統總收入的12%，低於上一季的14%。下降的主要原因是成熟節點市場持續疲軟。

Now I'll discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at 42%, up slightly from 40% in the prior quarter. While most of our China revenue continued to be from domestic Chinese customers. This was the largest quarter for multinational spending in China since mid last year. We expect spending from this region to increase year-over-year in 2024. I believe it will, however, decline as we go through the year.

現在我將討論我們總收入的區域組成。中國地區的營收佔比為42%，略高於上一季的40%。雖然我們中國的大部分收入仍然來自中國國內客戶，但這是自去年年中以來跨國公司在中國支出最高的季度。我們預計2024年來自該地區的支出將年增。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，這個數字將會下降。

Our next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 24% of revenue in the March quarter versus 19% in the December quarter. Japan and Taiwan rounded out the remainder of the top 4 regions. Our Customer Support Business Group generated revenue in the March quarter totaling approximately $1.4 billion. This was down 4% from the December quarter and 13% lower than the March quarter in calendar year 2023.

我們第二大地域集中度地區是韓國，佔3月季度營收的24%，高於12月季度的19%。日本和台灣則名列前四大地區。我們的客戶支援業務集團在3月份季度創造了約14億美元的收入。這比12月份季度下降了4%，比2023年3月季度下降了13%。

Our Reliant Systems revenue decreased in the March quarter due to continued weakness in mature node investments, partially offset by a higher level of spares. Reliant is at the lowest revenue level in the last 2 years and spares is at the highest revenue level since the end of 2022. The spares business is seeing very early signs of positive impact from utilization increases from our customers.

由於成熟節點投資持續疲軟，我們的 Reliant Systems 業務在 3 月季度的營收有所下降，但備件業務的成長部分抵消了這一影響。 Reliant 業務的收入目前處於近兩年來的最低水平，而備件業務的收入則達到了自 2022 年底以來的最高水平。備件業務已初步顯現出正面影響，這得益於客戶利用率的提高。

Turning to the gross margin performance. The March quarter came in at 48.7%, above the midpoint of our guided range and above the December quarter level of 47.6%. The increase was primarily a result of favorable changes in product and customer mix as well as improved factory efficiencies. March quarter operating expenses were $698 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $662 million. This was due in part to expenses incurred for an extra week in the quarter, I'll remind you, it was a 14-week quarter, as well as our conscious growth in R&D spending.

接下來談談毛利率表現。 3月季度的毛利率為48.7%，高於我們先前預期範圍的中位數，也高於12月份季度的47.6%。毛利率的成長主要得益於產品和客戶組合的有利變化以及工廠效率的提高。 3月季度的營運費用為6.98億美元，高於上一季的6.62億美元。部分是由於本季多出的一週產生了相關費用（需要提醒的是，本季共有14週），以及我們有意增加了研發投入。

As Tim mentioned, we remain laser-focused on investing in R&D to extend our product and competitive differentiation. R&D as a percentage of spending was at a high watermark coming in at 71% of total spending. Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.3% and in line with the December quarter level of 30% and at the high end of our guidance range. This was primarily because of the strong gross margin performance, which was somewhat offset by the growth in R&D investment. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 11.7%, consistent with our expectations.

正如蒂姆所提到的，我們始終專注於研發投入，以拓展產品線並提升競爭優勢。研發支出佔總支出的比例達到了歷史新高，高達71%。本季營業利潤率為30.3%，與去年12月季度的30%基本持平，並處於我們預期範圍的高端。這主要得益於強勁的毛利率表現，但研發投入的成長在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。本季非GAAP稅率為11.7%，與我們的預期相符。

Looking further into calendar 2024, we continue to believe the tax rate will be in the low to mid-teens, with some possible fluctuations quarter-by-quarter. Other income and expense for the March quarter came in at $10 million in income compared with $5 million in income in the December quarter. The increase in OI&E was due to higher cash balances and higher interest rates. OI&E will be subject to market-related fluctuations that could cause some level of volatility quarter-by-quarter.

展望2024年，我們仍然認為稅率將維持在十幾到十幾的水平，並可能出現季度性波動。 3月份季度的其他收入和支出為1000萬美元，而12月份季度為500萬美元。其他收入和支出的增加是由於現金餘額增加和利率上升所致。其他收入和支出將受到市場波動的影響，這可能導致季度性波動。

On the capital return side of things, we allocated approximately $860 million to share repurchases, and we paid $263 million in dividends in the March quarter. Our share repurchase activity included both open market repurchases as well as an accelerated share repurchase arrangement. The ASRs continued to execute into the month of April. And I would just mention, we continue to track towards our long-term capital return plans of returning 75% to 100% of our free cash flow.

在資本回報方面，我們撥出約8.6億美元用於股票回購，並在3月季度支付了2.63億美元的股息。我們的股票回購活動包括公開市場回購和加速股票回購安排（ASR）。 ASR一直持續執行到4月。最後，我想提一下，我們正朝著長期資本回報計畫穩步邁進，目標是將75%至100%的自由現金流用於資本回報。

March quarter diluted earnings per share was $7.79, towards the higher end of our guided range. The diluted share count was 132 million shares on track with expectations and down from the December quarter. We have $1.2 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

3月份季度稀釋後每股收益為7.79美元，接近我們預期範圍的高端。稀釋後股份數量為1.32億股，符合預期，較12月份季度下降。我們董事會批准的股票回購計畫中還剩12億美元。

Let me pivot to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the March quarter totaled $5.7 billion, up a little bit from $5.6 billion at the end of the December quarter. The increase was largely due to collections with an extra week in the March quarter, offset by cash allocated to share buyback, dividend payments and capital expenditures.

接下來我談談資產負債表。截至三月底，我們的現金及短期投資總額為57億美元，較去年十二月末的56億美元略有增加。成長主要歸功於三月季度多出的一周，這部分收入得以收回，但部分被分配給股票回購、股息支付和資本支出的現金所抵消。

Days sales outstanding was 57 days in the March quarter, a decrease from 66 days in the December quarter. Inventory at the end of the March quarter totaled $4.3 billion, down $107 million from the December quarter level. Inventory turns remained flat from the prior quarter level at 1.8x. We are making progress in bringing inventory levels down, and we will continue to work on this throughout calendar 2024.

3月季度應收帳款週轉天數為57天，較12月份季度的66天下降。 3月季度末庫存總額為43億美元，較12月份季末減少了1.07億美元。庫存週轉率與上一季持平，為1.8倍。我們在降低庫存水準方面取得了進展，並將於2024年全年繼續努力。

Noncash expenses for the March quarter included approximately $77 million in equity compensation, $75 million in depreciation and $15 million in amortization. Capital expenditures in the March quarter were $104 million, down $12 million from the December quarter. Spending was primarily centered on lab expansions in the United States and Asia, supporting our global strategy to be close to our customers' development locations. We ended the March quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was flat with the prior quarter.

3月份季度的非現金支出包括約7,700萬美元的股權激勵費用、7,500萬美元的折舊費用和1,500萬美元的攤提費用。 3月季度的資本支出為1.04億美元，較12月份季度減少1,200萬美元。支出主要用於美國和亞洲的實驗室擴建，以支援我們貼近客戶研發地點的全球策略。截至3月份季度末，我們擁有約17,200名正式全職員工，與上一季持平。

Let's now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the June 2024 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, gross margin of 47.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This gross margin decline from March is reflective of a quarter-to-quarter change in customer mix. Operating margins of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This reflects our continued commitment to prioritize R&D spending. And finally, earnings per share of $7.50, plus or minus $0.75, based on a share count of approximately 131 million shares.

現在我們來看看2024年6月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計營收為38億美元，上下浮動3億美元；毛利率為47.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。毛利率較3月份下降，反映了客戶結構的環比變化。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。這反映了我們持續優先投入研發的承諾。最後，基於約1.31億股的股數，我們預期每股收益為7.50美元，上下浮動0.75美元。

So let me wrap up. 2024 is a year of continued transformation for Lam Research. We're investing in our long-term strategy to expand our technology leadership and operational excellence while efficiently managing overall spending.

總結一下。 2024年對於Lam Research而言是持續轉型的一年。我們將加大對長期策略的投入，以鞏固我們的技術領先地位和卓越營運能力，同時有效控制整體支出。

We're encouraged that the long-term drivers of semiconductor growth, such as artificial intelligence, are seeing accelerated adoption, and we expect Lam to be a strong beneficiary of these trends. We're well positioned for the architectural and material change coming, such as gate-all-around, advanced packaging, backside power delivery and the move to dry photoresist.

我們欣喜地看到，人工智慧等半導體長期成長驅動因素正在加速普及，我們預期Lam將成為這些趨勢的受益者。我們已做好充分準備，迎接即將到來的架構和材料變革，例如全環柵封裝、先進封裝、背面供電以及乾式光阻的普及。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們的發言到此結束。現在，我和提姆想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

（操作說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

First one for Tim. Tim, a question on high aspect ratio etch for NAND, where you have a very high market share. And you said in your prepared comments, you defended market share there. Your competitor Tokyo electron introduced a Cryoetch product a year ago, but you also have one from 3 years ago. So I'm kind of curious, can you talk a little bit about the market share dynamics and high aspect ratio etch? And the fact that some of your customers are talking about using Cryo etch for like 430 layer NAND. So can you give us some color there on high-aspect-ratio etch? And then I have a follow-up for Doug.

第一個問題問Tim。 Tim，關於NAND高深寬比蝕刻，你們在這個領域擁有非常高的市佔率。你在事先準備好的評論中提到，你們捍衛了這個市場佔有率。你們的競爭對手東京電子一年前推出了Cryoetch產品，但你們三年前就推出了。所以我很好奇，你能談談市場佔有率的動態變化以及高深寬比蝕刻嗎？還有，你們的一些客戶正在討論使用Cryoetch來刻蝕430層NAND。能詳細解釋一下高深寬比蝕刻嗎？接下來，我還有一個問題問Doug。

Sure. Krish, on cryo etch, had a couple of data points in my prepared remarks. But one is we have an installed base of cryo etch tools used for NAND that's now approaching 1,000 chambers. So obviously, we've been in high-volume production with this application for quite some time. And my comment was that there always are customers exploring different options during the development phase.

當然。 Krish，關於低溫蝕刻，在我準備的演講稿中提到了一些數據點。其中之一是，我們用於NAND快閃記憶體的低溫蝕刻設備裝置裝置量已接近1000台。顯然，我們在這個應用領域已經進行了相當長時間的大規模生產。我的發言是，在開發階段，總會有客戶探索不同的方案。

But as my comment is, these are very complex processes to put into high-volume production. And so we continue to leverage the learning that we get working with our customers, the focus on technology extension and manufacturing readiness. And by that focus, we've been able to defend the decisions once they come to that point of the customer really having to decide which tool to commit their next fabrication line to. And so that's all we can say is we're working hard to make sure we have the best tool for the application. And so far, it's winning the day.

但正如我所說，這些工藝流程非常複雜，難以實現大規模生產。因此，我們不斷累積與客戶合作的經驗，專注於技術拓展和生產準備。正是憑藉著這種專注，我們才能在客戶最終決定下一條生產線採用哪種設備時，為他們的決策提供強而有力的支援。所以，我們只能說，我們正在努力確保為客戶找到最合適的設備。目前來看，我們的努力取得了成功。

Got it. Got it. So good to hear that the share is still solid. And then a follow-up for Doug on margins. Doug, you kind of mentioned about the gross margin, maybe moderation in the June quarter due to the customer mix. Is that mainly a function of China? And how to think about gross margins in the second half? And maybe if I can extend that question how to think about OpEx into the back half of the year, too?

明白了，明白了。很高興聽到市佔率依然穩健。接下來我想問Doug關於利潤率的問題。 Doug，你剛才提到毛利率，說由於客戶結構的變化，六月的季度毛利率可能會有所下降。這主要是受中國市場的影響嗎？下半年的毛利率該如何預測？另外，我還可以問一下下半年的營運支出該如何預測嗎？

Yes. Krish, I guess I'd say a couple of things. First, gross margin, sometimes it's a little bit better when we're selling to smaller customers, and I'm not going to pin it to any one geographic region necessarily. But in China, there are some smaller customers, and they tend to -- because we have volume purchase pricing sometimes, they pay a little bit more. And -- but it's not because of a geographic region, it's because of the size of the customer. So that's one thing to think about.

是的，克里什，我想說幾點。首先，毛利率方面，有時候我們賣給小客戶的時候毛利率會稍微高一些，我並不想把這歸咎於某個特定的地理區域。但在中國，有一些小客戶，他們往往——因為我們有時會提供大量採購價格——會支付更高的價格。而且——但這並非因為地理區域，而是因為客戶規模。所以這是需要考慮的一點。

And in my scripted remarks as well as what Tim said is we think that the China region will modulate a little bit as we go through the year. So that's part of what we need to think about. And I've been talking about this for a couple of quarters. So anyway, I have that in mind when you're updating your models.

我在事先準備好的發言稿中以及蒂姆所說的都是，我們認為中國地區的經濟狀況會在今年內略有波動。這是我們需要考慮的因素之一。過去幾個季度我一直在談論這個問題。總之，當你們更新模型時，我會把這一點考慮在內。

Second, we've been talking, I think, for a couple of quarters now, maybe actually 3 quarters about the need to grow R&D investment this year because of these technology changes that we see, like gate-all-around, backside power, advanced packaging and so forth, dry photoresist. And we're absolutely planning on doing that.

其次，我認為我們已經討論了兩個季度，或許實際上是三個季度，由於我們看到的一些技術變革，例如全包圍柵極、背面供電、先進封裝、乾式光刻膠等等，今年需要增加研發投入。我們絕對會這樣做。

You saw that in the March quarter, R&D as a percent of total spending was the highest that I have seen here at 71%, and we intend to keep investing in R&D. So independent of whatever the top line is, we're going to grow R&D investment this year.

如您所見，在三月的季度中，研發支出佔總支出的比例達到了71%，這是我見過的最高水平，我們計劃繼續加大研發投入。因此，無論營收如何，我們今年都將繼續增加研發投資。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。

So I wanted to ask about China. So it's going to modulate through the year, the mix, but it sounds like it's still going to be up year-over-year for domestic China this year. So I guess my question is, we've seen some headlines on a few entities being potentially added to the entity list. And I'm wondering if these comments reflect the potential addition of these entities? Or does it basically say, hey, if the status quo remains, this is what your assumption is, meaning that if there were entities added, that would be downside to these comments?

所以我想問關於中國的問題。雖然經濟情勢會隨著時間推移而有所波動，但聽起來今年中國國內經濟成長仍將年增。我的問題是，我們看到一些新聞報告說某些實體可能被列入實體清單。我想知道這些評論是否反映了這些實體可能被列入清單的情況？或者說，這些評論的意思是，如果現狀保持不變，那麼這些評論就意味著如果真的有實體被列入清單，那就會產生負面影響？

Yes. Tim, I mean, obviously, we can't forecast changes in U.S. trade policy with respect to China that we don't know about. And so we're basically giving you our best view of what we think our China business will be through the rest of the year and recognizing that there could be changes that we don't foresee.

是的。提姆，我的意思是，很顯然，我們無法預測我們未知的美國對華貿易政策變化。所以，我們基本上是盡我們所能，向我們提供我們對今年剩餘時間裡中國業務的最佳預測，同時也承認可能會出現我們無法預見的變化。

Well, what I will say is we -- obviously, we've built up what we believe is a strong government affairs team were plugged into all the relevant discussions. And I think over the last couple of years, you've seen we have a pretty strong track record of working with the U.S. government responding to export control policy and that's just what we plan to do going on into the future.

我想說的是，我們——顯然——已經建立了一支我們認為非常強大的政府事務團隊，並積極參與所有相關的討論。我認為在過去幾年裡，大家已經看到我們在與美國政府合作應對出口管制政策方面取得了相當不錯的成績，而這正是我們未來計劃繼續做的事情。

Sure. And Doug, I just wanted to ask about service a bit. So there's much different dynamics happening in the spares and in the Reliant business. Can you talk about that because it certainly sounds -- I mean, this is kind of an odd situation that we'd have spares piece so strong and Reliant piece so weak. So can you sort of give us any read-throughs there? Like what does that mean for the future of that business?

當然。道格，我只是想問一下關於售後服務的問題。備件業務和 Reliant 業務的運作方式截然不同。能談談這方面嗎？因為聽起來確實有點奇怪，備件業務這麼強勁，而 Reliant 業務卻這麼疲軟。你能給我們解讀一下嗎？這對這項業務的未來意味著什麼？

Yes. Listen, I think it's well understood right now that you've got 2 dynamics going on relative to thinking about the different components of CSBG. First, industry utilization is starting to get somewhat better. I would definitely say it's early days for that. But the reason I specifically talked about the spares level versus where it's been over the last couple of years is because of that. That clearly is beginning to show up in our spares business.

是的。聽著，我認為目前大家對CSBG各個組成部分的運作機制已經有了比較清晰的認識，主要涉及兩個方面。首先，行業利用率開始提高。當然，現在下結論還為時過早。但我之所以特別提到備件水準與過去幾年相比的變化，正是因為這一點。這一點顯然已經開始體現在我們的備件業務中了。

However, when you look at CSBG in total, we were down now because of the softness in Reliant. I also think that's pretty well understood in the industry, right? Mature node investment outside of the China region certainly is pretty soft right now. And so you have those 2 competing dynamics going on that's showing up in the CSBG line. If I was guessing, Tim, right now, CSBG is probably flattish this year from last year because of those 2 offsetting dynamics, if that helps you think about it.

然而，從整體來看CSBG，我們現在之所以下降，是因為Reliant的疲軟表現。我想業內人士對此也都有所了解，對吧？目前，除中國以外，成熟節點的投資確實較為疲軟。因此，這兩種相互抵銷的因素都體現在了CSBG的表現上。提姆，如果我沒猜錯的話，由於這兩種相互抵消的因素，CSBG今年的業績可能與去年持平，希望這能幫助你理解。

Yes. Tim, I think the only thing I would add there is, I mean, when you think about the CSBG business a little bit longer term, I mean, clearly, we commented on utilization starting to tick up. But as we move into 2025, I think we also will see significant upgrade activity coming back in, especially in the NAND space.

是的。提姆，我想我唯一要補充的是，從長遠角度來看，CSBG業務確實出現了利用率開始上升的趨勢。但隨著我們邁入2025年，我認為我們也會看到大量的升級活動回歸，尤其是在NAND領域。

We've talked about the fact that there is a large portion of that installed base that has not yet been moved towards the technology nodes that are most useful for our customers. And so I think that will also flow through into the CSBG business in perhaps not so much this year, but clearly, as we move into '25 and beyond.

我們已經討論過，我們已安裝的設備中有很大一部分尚未遷移到對客戶最有用的技術節點。因此，我認為這種情況也會影響CSBG業務，也許今年不會太明顯，但很明顯，隨著我們進入2025年及以後，這種情況會越來越明顯。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Within accelerated compute and AI semiconductor segment of the market, there still seems to be a lot of constraints centered around high-bandwidth memory and tightness in CoWos packaging. Obviously, you guys have a very strong position here, as you mentioned, Tim. You guys previously talked about this business, this opportunity as being potentially like $1 billion per year type of revenue opportunity. But just given the strong demand pull and some of the expanding use cases, I mean, is the Lam team already on track to drive $1 billion plus in advanced packaging revenues this year? And now that the trends are in place, right, what's kind of your new or maybe revised view on the revenue opportunity here for the team over the next few years?

在加速運算和人工智慧半導體市場領域，高頻寬記憶體和CoWos封裝的緊密性仍然是一大限制因素。正如你所說，Tim，你們在這個領域顯然佔據著非常有利的地位。你們之前討論過，這項業務，或者說這個機遇，有可能帶來每年10億美元的營收。但考慮到強勁的需求拉動和不斷擴展的應用場景，我的意思是，Lam團隊今年是否已經有望實現10億美元以上的先進封裝營收？現在趨勢已經形成，那麼你們對未來幾年團隊在這個領域的營收前景有何新的或修正的看法？

Yes, Harlan, I think that you're right, there is strong pull in. I mean, obviously, we're responding as quickly as we can to the demand. Our advanced packaging shipments this year will be over $1 billion. And so that's kind of an important milestone for us.

是的，哈蘭，我覺得你說得對，市場需求非常強。顯然，我們正在盡最大努力快速回應市場需求。我們今年的先進包裝出貨量將超過10億美元。這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。

I don't know how to give you like that next milestone. Obviously, we're seeing tremendous growth in demand in this area. Our positions are strong, not only as you said, in the foundry logic side of advanced packaging, but also as we talked specifically by our very strong positions in HBM related to what we do on the packaging side of HBM.

我不知道該如何向您描述下一個里程碑。顯然，我們看到這一領域的需求正在急劇增長。我們的地位非常穩固，不僅如您所說，我們在先進封裝的代工邏輯方面，而且正如我們之前討論過的，我們在HBM封裝領域也擁有非常強大的實力。

And so I think it's just an area where we'll see good long-term growth we are investing again in this area. We've talked in the past about our work in the panel processing space trying to look ahead to see where the packaging market is going to go to make sure that we are fully capable of taking advantage of what we see is a real long-term secular driver for semiconductors and the equipment industry.

所以我認為這是一個非常具有長期成長潛力的領域，我們正在再次投資該領域。我們過去曾談到我們在面板加工領域的工作，試圖展望封裝市場的未來發展方向，以確保我們能夠充分利用我們認為對半導體和設備行業具有真正長期發展潛力的因素。

Congratulations on hitting that milestone. For my follow-up question, with your customers and their spending outlooks looking more constructive as cycle dynamics continue to improve, you've got strong tailwinds on manufacturing complexity trends like the growth outlook that is quite solid, right, for the team.

恭喜你們達成這項里程碑。我的後續問題是，隨著週期動態的持續改善，你們的客戶及其支出前景也更加樂觀，這無疑對你們團隊在製造業複雜性趨勢（例如成長前景）方面提供了強勁的利好因素，對嗎？

So if I look out beyond this year and the ramp of your new Malaysia manufacturing facility, I mean, not only is it low-cost yield like you guys have mentioned, but you've got highly skilled workforce you also set up the supply chain support, infrastructure locally as well. So I don't know if it's for Tim or Doug, but is there any way to think about the incremental gross margin benefit on incremental revenues that flow out of the Malaysia factory as you start to load it?

所以，如果我展望今年以後，以及你們馬來西亞新工廠的投產，我的意思是，不僅像你們提到的那樣成本低、產量高，而且你們還擁有高技能的勞動力，並在當地建立了供應鏈支持和基礎設施。我不知道這是給Tim還是Doug的，但有沒有辦法考慮隨著馬來西亞工廠開始投產，新增收入帶來的毛利率成長呢？

Let me take the first part of it, and then I'll let Doug talk specifically about the gross margin comment. I think it's one thing that I think we're feeling very comfortable with, which is your last question was, boy, there must be a lot of demand in you've got to be ramping up for that. I think as we come into this next up cycle, we feel very well positioned relative to all the things you just talked about, the physical capacity, the trained workforce.

我先說第一部分，然後讓道格具體談談毛利率的問題。我認為我們在這方面很有信心，就像你最後一個問題說的，需求肯定很大，你們肯定要加緊生產。我認為，隨著我們進入下一個上升週期，就你剛才提到的所有因素而言，例如產能和訓練有素的員工隊伍，我們都處於非常有利的位置。

The supply chain has been built up and made more resilience since the last big upturn in the industry where we saw lots of constraints. And so I think from that standpoint, we feel really good that we have executed on the operations side of the house. Now we just need to start seeing the kinds of new peak volumes that will demonstrate that externally. And I'll let Doug address your gross margin question.

自上次行業大幅成長以來，供應鏈已經得到加強，韌性也得到了提升，當時我們遇到了許多限制。因此，我認為從這個角度來看，我們對營運方面的執行情況非常滿意。現在，我們只需要看到新的銷售高峰，就能向外界證明這一點。至於毛利率的問題，就讓道格來回答吧。

Yes, Harlan. I guess, I'll just remind you what I've said in prior quarters, which is I don't want you to run ahead of that financial model we put out in 2020. That's still the right way to think about it. Now obviously, right now, we've got quite favorable customer mix. I don't expect that to continue. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong about that but the benefit from Malaysia after we came through the inflationary stuff and whatnot, was completely how we intend to get back to the gross margin and better than that financial model maybe we can push a little higher. Certainly, we're not going to stop staying focused on that. But that's the way to think about it is Malaysia is still into the future. It will show up when we ramp incremental volumes, and we're ready for that.

是的，哈蘭。我想，我還是提醒你我之前幾季說過的話，那就是我不希望你過早預測我們在2020年發布的財務模型。這種思路仍然是正確的。當然，目前我們的客戶組合相當有利。但我並不認為這種情況會持續下去。我不知道，也許我的判斷有誤，但馬來西亞市場在我們克服了通膨等問題之後帶來的收益，正是我們計劃恢復毛利率並超越財務模型的目標，甚至可能更高一些的關鍵所在。當然，我們不會停止關注這一點。但關鍵在於，馬來西亞市場仍處於發展階段。隨著銷量逐步成長，它的影響將會顯現，而我們已經為此做好了準備。

Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Srini Pajjuri。

Doug, I think on the China side, just one clarification. Were you expecting China to moderate in this quarter? Did it come in better than you expected? And then just to go back to your comment about China moderation through the rest of the year. Any particular segment within China? I mean, is it DRAM? Or is it logic? Or is it both? If you can add some color to that, that would be helpful.

道格，關於中國市場，我想澄清一點。你預期中國市場本季會趨於穩定嗎？實際情況是否超出你的預期？還有，關於你之前提到的中國市場在今年剩餘時間會趨於平穩，你指的是中國市場的哪個特定領域？比如DRAM？還是邏輯電路？還是兩者都有？如果你能詳細解釋一下，那就太好了。

Yes, Srini. It came in pretty much as we expected. I suggested last quarter that it was going to continue to remain pretty good in March. So no, that was pretty much as we expected. And I don't know, like at a segment level that I've got any specific color for you relative to the China slowing a little bit in the second half. There's such a broad set of customers there that are in every segment. It's in DRAM, it's in foundry, it's in logic. And it's a broad set. So when we look at that in total, I do see it somewhat weighted here to the early part of the year, and it will modulate somewhat. But nothing specific I had to share with you from a segment standpoint.

是的，Srini。結果基本上符合預期。我上個季度就預測過，3月的情況會繼續保持良好勢頭。所以，確實如此。至於具體到各個細分市場，我目前還沒有關於中國市場下半年成長放緩的具體資訊。中國市場的客戶群非常廣泛，涵蓋了各個領域，包括DRAM、晶圓代工、邏輯電路等等。所以從整體來看，我認為增速放緩主要集中在年初，之後會有所波動。但就具體細分市場而言，我沒有特別的資訊可以分享。

And then maybe for Tim, Tim. Some of your large customers got a pretty good amount of subsidies from the government recently on the CHIPS Act and other stuff outside of the U.S. as well. So I'm just wondering what sort of impact should we expect in terms of your own business as I guess, that money comes in? And any, I guess, thoughts on the timing of potential orders from this incremental funding that they're getting?

然後，或許可以問問提姆，提姆。你的一些大客戶最近從美國以外的政府部門獲得了相當可觀的補貼，包括《兒童健康保險流通與責任法案》（CHIPS Act）和其他一些項目。所以我想知道，隨著這筆資金的到位，你的業務會受到怎樣的影響？你對他們收到這筆額外資金後可能產生的訂單有什麼看法？

Yes. I mean, obviously, you've seen in just even the last few weeks quite a few announcements about the CHIPS Act grants in the U.S. I'll also note that there are similar chips programs going on in places like Japan and obviously, a little bit further in the future in Europe and elsewhere.

是的。我的意思是，很顯然，就在過去幾週，您已經看到了很多關於美國晶片法案撥款的公告。我還想指出，日本等地也有類似的晶片項目正在進行，顯然，歐洲和其他地方在未來也會有類似的項目。

And so we've always said these are more of a '25, '26, '27 time frame for -- from the equipment side, especially the shorter lead time tools like we provide. So you'll see the fab coming up a lot of construction connectivity, you see long lead time tools go in. And then we know that our time will come. I mean -- and so I think it's still a '25, '26, '27 opportunity for us.

所以我們一直都說，就設備方面而言，尤其是像我們提供的這種交貨週期較短的工具，這些機會更多地會在2025、2026、2027年出現。你會看到工廠進行大量的施工連接，也會看到交貨週期較長的工具投入使用。我們知道，我們的機會終會到來。我的意思是——所以我認為，對我們來說，2025、2026、2027年仍然是一個機會。

But the important thing is, while that's a lot of extra money maybe what's really exciting about is most of that is targeted towards to the leading-edge nodes. And one thing about Lam's story is that we have focused a lot of R&D investment to build our position in leading-edge foundry logic. In the next generations of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory as well as, of course, continuing our strength in NAND.

但重要的是，雖然這筆額外的資金數量龐大，但真正令人興奮的是，其中大部分資金都用於尖端製程節點。林氏的成功之處在於，我們投入了大量研發資金，以鞏固我們在尖端晶圓代工邏輯領域的地位。這不僅體現在下一代DRAM和高頻寬記憶體方面，當然也體現在我們持續保持NAND快閃記憶體優勢的策略上。

And so as we see these new fabs come up, I mean it's not only additional spending, but it's at nodes where we believe that we will actually do better from a SAM and market share perspective. And so we're patiently waiting. But we know it's going to come. You can go visit the sites, the fab buildings are there, and they're feverishly working to get them ready for equipment.

所以，隨著這些新晶圓廠的落成，這不僅意味著額外的投資，更重要的是，我們相信在產能和市佔率方面，這些新晶圓廠所在的製程節點能夠帶來更好的績效。因此，我們正在耐心等待。但我們知道，這一切終將到來。您可以去現場參觀，晶圓廠的廠房已經建成，工人們正在緊鑼密鼓地進行設備安裝前的準備工作。

Our next question comes from CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 公司的 CJ Muse。

I guess first question, I wanted to try to get a little bit more color on your updated WFE outlook. It looks like you're taking it up by about 7 billion. You talked about that being really litho, not impacting you. So I guess should we infer from that, that you're still expecting WFE up kind of low to mid-single digits? And as part of that, how are you thinking about those 4 large drivers, particularly, I guess, 2 or 3 of them, and the growth potential there and the relative outperformance that you expect to see?

我想問的第一個問題是，我想更詳細地了解您更新後的WFE（全球就業成長）預期。您似乎將預期上調了約70億美元。您之前提到這其實影響不大，不會對您造成影響。那麼，我們是否可以由此推斷，您仍然預期WFE將實現個位數低至中等的成長？此外，您如何看待那四大驅動因素，特別是其中兩到三個，以及它們帶來的成長潛力和您預期的相對超額收益？

Yes, CJ, I mean, obviously, one of our peers in the industry reported last week. We took a look at it and just have a view that we missed a little bit of what was shipping into China. That is the vast majority, if not all, of the change in WFE from our point of view. There's always some moving pieces and DRAMs maybe a little stronger, trailing-edge foundry logic is probably a little bit softer. But at the end of the day, the biggest change that we saw was litho, and we just -- we missed it a little bit because it's not part of our addressable market.

是的，CJ，我的意思是，很顯然，我們業內的一位同行上週發布了報告。我們看了看，覺得我們錯過了部分銷往中國的產品。從我們的角度來看，這幾乎涵蓋了WFE（晶圓前端）領域的所有變化。當然，總是會有一些變化，例如DRAM的性能可能略有提升，而一些落後的代工廠邏輯晶片的性能可能略有下降。但歸根結底，我們看到的最大變化是光刻技術，而我們——我們錯過了這部分，因為它不在我們目標市場之內。

I'm not sure I caught all of your -- the second part of your question, CJ. Try it one more time.

CJ，我不太確定我是否完全理解了你的問題——也就是問題的第二部分。請你再說一次。

Just as you think about those $1 billion-plus opportunities, particularly around advanced packaging and, I guess, including HBM within that and also gate-all-around, how you think you'll fare relative to WFE in '24?

當你思考那些價值超過 10 億美元的機會時，尤其是在先進封裝領域，我想也包括 HBM 以及整個封裝領域，你認為到 2024 年，你相對於 WFE 的表現會如何？

Yes. I think, given the mix we see in some of these technology transitions, it should be incrementally better than it was last year for sure.

是的。我認為，考慮到這些技術轉型中存在的各種因素，情況肯定會比去年有所改善。

And then just as a quick second question, I guess, third question, if I could sneak it in. You talked about normalization of China into the second half. And getting back to maybe a 46%-ish type of normalized gross margin. It sounds like China, in your mind today, is better. So I guess, what would that number be if that continues to be strong for you guys?

然後，我還有一個問題，或者說第三個問題，如果可以的話。您提到中國市場下半年將逐步恢復正常，毛利率可能會回到46%左右。聽起來您認為中國市場目前的情況比上半年好。那麼，如果中國市場持續保持強勁成長，您認為這個數字會是多少呢？

I guess, CJ, you got to just kind of look at where we've been, right? You're absolutely right, and thanks for mentioning the 46%. That's sort of where gross margin was after we had done some of the Malaysia stuff and before China popped up with those smaller customers. And so the fact that we're above that level is largely customer mix.

我想，CJ，你得回顧一下我們過去的經歷，對吧？你說得完全正確，謝謝你提到46%這個數字。那是我們在完成馬來西亞業務之後，在中國那些小客戶出現之前，毛利率的水平。所以，我們現在的毛利率高於這個水平，主要歸功於客戶組合的最佳化。

And so that's how you should be thinking about it. And if we have that mix wrong, then margin kind of -- you got a couple of data points in the last couple of quarters that you can kind of solve for to understand what it might look like. It will be in that 46% to 48-plus percent range depending on what the mix looks like.

所以你應該這樣考慮。如果我們產品組合出了問題，那麼利潤率就會受到影響——過去幾季的一些數據點可以幫助你大致了解情況。根據產品組合的不同，利潤率會在 46% 到 48% 以上。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫·馬利克。

The first one for Tim. Tim, it's good to see some green shoots in the NAND market. You talked about double-digit spare parts growth in the NAND, and you also talked about that the AI storage inflection for high-density SSDs is in front of us. But we do not have the 3x wafers per bit offset that you're seeing on the DRAM side. So can you kind of paint for us the trajectory of the NAND improvement that you're expecting in the second half of the next year?

第一個問題問提姆。提姆，很高興看到NAND市場出現一些復甦跡象。你提到NAND的備件需求實現了兩位數的成長，也提到高密度SSD的AI儲存拐點即將到來。但是，我們還沒有像DRAM那樣實現每比特3倍的晶圓數量提升。那麼，你能否為我們描繪一下你預期明年下半年NAND的發展軌跡？

We're not going to give you a '25 forecast quite yet. It's way too early for that. It will be better though, right? I mean, it's improving.

我們現在還不會對2025年做出預測。現在還太早了。不過情況會好轉的，對吧？我的意思是，情況正在好轉。

Yes. Well, I guess without giving you exact numbers. I mean, clearly, we all know that the NAND spending has been incredibly weak for the last 12 to 18 months. And so we're in the very early stages of starting to see that recover. And I think if you look at what most of our -- we rely on our customer commentary that they make publicly for a lot of this, but they talk about the fact that maybe 90% of the bits they're shipping are at the leading edge.

是的。嗯，我不太好意思給出具體數字。我的意思是，很明顯，我們都知道過去12到18個月NAND快閃記憶體的支出一直非常疲軟。所以我們現在還處於復甦的初期階段。我認為，如果你看看我們大多數客戶——我們很大程度上依賴他們公開的評論——他們提到，他們出貨的閃存中大約90%都是最先進的。

But when we look at the installed base of our systems, that was my comment. I believe that there is still going to be a large portion of the installed base that will move forward to the next technology nodes. It's the most efficient way for our customers to do that is to upgrade what they already have.

但當我們審視系統的現有裝機量時，我的觀點正是如此。我相信，現有裝機量中仍有很大一部分會升級到下一代技術節點。對我們的客戶而言，最有效的方式就是升級他們現有的系統。

And I think you'll see that move forward and, therefore, NAND WFE move up in '25. But because it comes through a large -- to a large degree, through upgrades, Lam's capture rate of every dollar of WFE spend will be much higher than in a greenfield capacity added. So when I think about Lam's opportunity to outperform in 2025 in NAND, I think it is obviously with high confidence because of the type of spending we would expect to be seen in 2025.

我認為你會看到這種趨勢繼續發展，因此，NAND WFE 的價格在 2025 年也會上漲。但由於這種上漲很大程度上是透過現有設備的升級實現的，Lam 公司每增加一美元的 WFE 支出，其收益將遠高於新產能。所以，當我展望 Lam 公司在 2025 年 NAND 領域超越競爭對手的機會時，我顯然非常有信心，因為我們預計 2025 年的支出規模將會非常可觀。

And in the other market segments, it's also pretty high because of the -- as I mentioned, the technology inflections that are occurring. And it's gate-all-around where we -- this year, we'll likely have over $1 billion of shipments into the gate-all-around technology nodes. And obviously, as gate-all-around continues to proliferate, our tools like ALD and selective etch will do better.

在其他細分市場，由於我之前提到的技術變革，這一比例也相當高。尤其是在全包圍閘極（Gate-all-around）技術方面，我們今年的出貨量預計將超過10億美元。顯然，隨著全包圍閘極技術的不斷普及，我們的原子層沉積（ALD）和選擇性蝕刻等工具也將發揮更大的作用。

In backside power delivery. We already talked about advanced packaging and then we obviously have out there in front of us also the work we're doing for dry photoresist processes for EUV. And so I just feel like there are a number of growth drivers for the company besides the one that is the most obvious, which is a NAND recovery in 2025.

在背面供電方面，我們已經討論過先進封裝技術，而且我們顯然還在進行用於極紫外光刻的干法光刻膠製程方面的工作。因此，我認為除了最顯而易見的2025年NAND快閃復甦之外，公司還有許多其他成長動力。

Great. And then one for Doug. Doug, within your China, 42% of sales, you talked about multinational picking up, which came as a positive surprise to me. Can you talk about what's driving that? Are those customers not worried about incremental restrictions? Or are they just trying to upgrade some of the older technology?

好的。接下來問Doug一個問題。 Doug，你提到在中國市場（佔銷售額的42%），跨國公司正在崛起，這讓我感到驚訝。你能談談是什麼原因促成了這一增長嗎？這些客戶是否不擔心技術上的限制？還是他們只是想升級一些老舊的技術？

I think it's just being responsive to the demand they see relative to the capacity that's there. And yes, I said it's the highest level since mid last year. Although I do understand I am not over position it. The vast majority of the spending in China continues to be the indigenous Chinese customer base. But I just observed it as I was going through the numbers and knowing everybody was going to be asking about China, that was something I thought I'd just mention.

我認為這只是根據現有產能對需求所做的調整。是的，我說過這是自去年年中以來的最高水準。雖然我知道我的部位並沒有過高。中國市場的絕大部分消費仍來自中國本土消費者。但我在分析數據時注意到這一點，也知道大家都會問到中國市場的狀況，所以就提一下。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I wanted to ask a question on NAND as well. Tim, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the transition from tungsten to molybdenum potentially happening in the market. I suppose, over the next couple of years. Can you speak to the significance of that in terms of dep intensity and how that could impact your business over the next couple of years?

我還想問一個關於NAND的問題。提姆，你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，市場可能會在未來幾年內從鎢向鉬過渡。你能否談談這種過渡對晶片深度的影響，以及它在未來幾年可能對你們業務產生的影響？

Sure. Well, obviously, any time there's a material change requires a new system, it's an opportunity for Lam to provide that technology into the market. And so it's an important change. I mean we call it moly just because it's so hard to say molybdenum. But the change to moly has some significant device benefits. And also, I mentioned the important thing in NAND is -- I mean it's important in every element of semiconductor devices, but it's the cost and technology.

當然。顯然，任何材料變更都需要新的系統，這對Lam來說都是將這項技術推向市場的機會。所以這是一項重要的變更。我們之所以稱之為鉬，只是因為「鉬」這個字念起來比較拗口。但改用鉬確實能顯著提升裝置性能。而且，我之前也提到過，NAND的關鍵在於——當然，半導體裝置的各個方面都很重要——成本和技術。

And so one thing that's sometimes lost is part of the transition to moly is also about enabling stack height reduction. So you can go to more layers and limit the stack height in a way that allows you to then have more productive etches, more productive deposition and other things. And so I think it's an important inflection for the industry and an opportunity for Lam and we're well positioned to win that inflection, we believe.

因此，有時會被忽略的一點是，向鉬基材料過渡的另一個重要方面是降低堆疊高度。這樣一來，就可以增加層數，並限制堆疊高度，從而提高刻蝕效率、沉積效率以及其他方面的效率。我認為這對產業來說是一個重要的轉捩點，對Lam公司來說也是一個機遇，我們相信我們已經做好充分準備，能夠贏得這個轉捩點。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on HBM you talked about your business growing more than 3x year-over-year, I think. And I think that comment was consistent with what you had communicated last quarter. based on sort of the input you have, the market intel you have, what kind of bit growth or market growth in HBM do you think that increase in your business supports in '24? And obviously, demand is very strong, but how are you thinking about supply/demand from your perspective exiting the year and into '25 in HBM?

明白了。關於HBM，我想繼續問您，您提到貴公司業務年增超過3倍，我記得是這樣。我認為這與您上個季度的說法一致。根據您掌握的資訊和市場情報，您認為貴公司業務的成長將支撐2024年HBM的市場佔有率或市場規模達到怎樣的成長？顯然，市場需求非常強勁，但從您的角度來看，您如何看待2025年HBM的供需關係？

Toshiya, maybe I'll give it a try. I mean when you look at overall bit demand, HBM was probably a point or two of it, although it's growing and adding to the broad market. But it's clearly requiring incremental investment of our SABRE 3D tool, our deep silicon etch tool. And I think it's something you're going to hear us talking about for many years to come. This form factor is going to continue to be important relative to AI enablement and feeding the GPU, the data that it needs, small today but growing quite rapidly.

Toshiya，或許我可以試試。我的意思是，從整體位需求來看，HBM 可能只佔其中一兩個百分點，儘管它正在成長並擴大市場。但這顯然需要我們不斷增加對 SABRE 3D 工具（即深矽蝕刻工具）的投資。而且我認為，在未來很多年裡，你都會聽到我們談論它。這種外形尺寸對於人工智慧的實現以及為 GPU 提供所需的資料（目前資料量很小，但成長速度非常快）而言，將繼續發揮重要作用。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wanted to follow up. You had mentioned that there was a customer that you're classifying as NAND that others might be classifying as DRAM. I just wanted to double click on that, if you could talk to what's going on there. Is that customer sort of doing both and people just have different classifications. Should we be thinking that there's more NAND capacity coming on in China than I had thought before? Can you just talk to that change?

我想跟進一下。您之前提到過，您把某個客戶的快閃記憶體歸類為NAND，但其他人可能會歸類為DRAM。我想就此再確認一下，您能否解釋一下具體情況？這個客戶是否同時使用這兩種閃存，只是分類方式不同？我們是否應該認為中國即將投產的NAND快閃產能比我之前預想的要多？您能否談談這種變化？

I guess all I'd say, Joe, is sometimes there could be a little bit of confusion. And I felt that as I was talking to people over the last quarter. So the reason I said it was, it's actually a nonvolatile device. It's got nonvolatile components. And early on, because of that, and we put everything into nonvolatile memory.

我想說的是，喬，有時候可能會有點讓人困惑。過去一個季度我和大家交流的時候也感覺到了這一點。所以我說的原因是，它實際上是一個非揮發性設備。它包含非揮發性組件。正因為如此，我們很早就把所有東西都放在了非揮發性記憶體裡。

So nonvolatile memory is more than NAND. This isn't an enormous number but as big enough that I want people to hear us tell you where it is and you can go think about it. And you probably know who the customer is. I'm not going to disclose it here, but it is 1 customer in specialty DRAM.

所以，非揮發性記憶體不只包括NAND快閃記憶體。這個數字雖然不算巨大，但也夠大了，我想讓大家知道它的具體規模，並思考一下。你們可能也知道客戶是誰。我在這裡就不透露了，但確實是專業DRAM領域的公司。

Got it. And then on the Reliant business, can you talk about changes in that business as we sort of move into a lower level of utilization in trailing-edge nodes. Do you see that kind of returning to more of a refurbished tools business, where there's stuff that you're able to actually refurbish? And any ramifications we should think about for profitability there?

明白了。關於Reliant的業務，隨著我們逐步降低後緣節點的使用率，您能否談談這項業務的變化？您是否認為我們會回歸到翻新設備業務，也就是對現有設備進行翻新？這會對獲利能力產生哪些影響？

Yes. I guess I'll just comment on -- we haven't -- I would be surprised if we move back towards a customer's divesting of equipment from fabs and us being able to refurbish those tools. I think you could see, obviously, the ebbs and flows with demand of how many new tools we ship. But I think it still remains mostly as a new tool, trailing-edge node business for us.

是的。我想補充一點——我們還沒有——如果客戶從晶圓廠剝離設備，而我們能夠翻新這些設備，我會感到驚訝。顯然，您可以看到，我們新設備的出貨量會隨著需求的波動而起伏。但我認為，對我們來說，這仍然主要是一項新設備業務，專注於尖端製程節點。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

Doug, I wanted to go back to something you just mentioned here around the relative capital intensity of upgrades versus greenfield investments for NAND as you get into '25. And I get the idea that you should take a larger share of upgrades. But am I thinking about this wrong? Like wouldn't be the absolute amount of WFE in an upgrade-driven cycle to be a lot lower than if it was in the greenfield cycle? Like how do I think about the puts and takes of those 2 variables in the context of NAND growth into 2025?

道格，我想回到你剛才提到的關於NAND快閃記憶體升級改造和新建專案在2025年左右的相對資本密集度的問題。我理解你應該增加升級改造的投入。但我的理解有誤嗎？比方說，在以升級改造為主導的週期中，WFE（晶圓廠設備）的絕對投入量不應該比新建專案週期低很多嗎？在NAND快閃記憶體2025年成長的背景下，我該如何看待這兩個變數之間的關係？

Sure, Stacy, I'll take that. I was actually the one that -- this is Tim. He said he needs to comment. Yes, no problem. I just wanted to own it in case you disagree, but it's -- I think you're thinking about it exactly right. I mean the reason upgrades are so attractive for customers is the total WFE spend is lower. That's why they upgrade the installed base.

當然，史泰西，我接受。其實是我——這位是提姆。他說他需要發表意見。好的，沒問題。我只是想先聲明一下，免得你不同意，但——我覺得你的想法完全正確。我的意思是，升級對客戶如此有吸引力的原因在於，WFE（硬體前端）的總支出更低。這就是他們升級現有設備的原因。

And so for my -- comment was specifically about Lam's outperformance relative to whatever WFE is for the industry next year. And so in an upgrade-heavy cycle, which, obviously, we haven't had for the last 2 years, in that next cycle of NAND upgrades, we're saying we would capture a higher percentage of whatever that WFE is.

因此，我的評論主要針對Lam相對於明年產業WFE（快閃記憶體前端）的優異表現。顯然，在過去兩年我們並沒有經歷升級換代的周期中，在下一個NAND升級週期中，我們預期我們將佔據更高的WFE市場份額。

Now we've said in the past that Lam's opportunity -- actually, because of that much higher capture rate, is not so different in terms of revenue for every bit added through an upgrade versus a greenfield. So WFE comes down, that's why it's attractive for customers. But for Lam, we capture almost the same amount of revenue because of the much higher capture rate. And so it kind of goes both ways.

我們之前說過，Lam 的機會——實際上，由於其更高的捕獲率，透過升級和新建系統每增加一個位元所帶來的收入並沒有太大差別。因此，WFE 會降低，這就是它對客戶有吸引力的原因。但對於 Lam 來說，由於其更高的捕獲率，我們幾乎可以獲得相同的收入。所以，這其實是雙向的。

So you're indifferent to like an upgrade cycle versus a greenfield cycle?

所以你對升級換代週期和新建專案週期無所謂？

Well, I would say -- the only thing I would say is because there's been lots of questions about whether Lam's market share in defense and others, we're not quite indifferent because the power of the installed base is that, again, when the customers preferred path is to upgrade what they already have, means that the positions don't change. And so Lam's very strong position carries forward in that case. So agnostic from a financial perspective, but obviously, our position in the industry continues to strengthen through each of those upgrade cycles.

嗯，我唯一想說的是，因為很多人都在問Lam在國防和其他領域的市場份額，我們對此並非漠不關心，因為龐大的客戶群的力量在於，當客戶傾向於升級現有設備時，我們的市場地位就不會改變。因此，Lam的強大市場地位在這種情況下得以延續。所以，從財務角度來看，我們持中立態度，但顯然，隨著每一次升級週期的到來，我們在產業中的地位都在不斷鞏固。

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. My follow-up, again, I wanted to go back to the segment expectations in China. So I know this -- I think it was Doug who said you didn't have anything to tell us on segments. But if I look at your slide deck, on Slide 5, I'm -- unless I'm reading it wrong, it does seem to suggest that you see it says sustained investment in domestic China for DRAM in calendar '24 and weakness in foundry logic. So is that actually what you're expecting, the China degradation in foundry logic and DRAM sustaining? Or is this slide -- am I just reading the slide wrong?

明白了，明白了，這很有幫助。我的後續問題是，我想再談談您對中國市場的預期。我知道——我記得是Doug說過您沒有什麼關於市場細分方面的資訊要告訴我們。但是，如果我看一下您的投影片，在第五張投影片上——除非我理解錯了——它似乎表明您認為2024年中國國內DRAM投資將持續，而代工邏輯晶片方面則存在疲軟。所以，這真的是您的期望嗎？中國代工邏輯晶片和DRAM方面會持續下滑？還是說——我只是理解錯了？

Yes. No. Stacy, you kind of have 1 customer in China DRAM. So I got to be careful talking about that. China is going to modulate through the year, right? It's not going to stay at 42% is the statement that I made, and it's going to modulate in every segment, I believe, in the China region.

是的。不。 Stacy，你在中國DRAM領域只有一個客戶。所以我談論這個話題時必須謹慎。中國市場全年都會有波動，對吧？我之前說過，它不會一直維持在42%，而且我相信，中國地區的各個細分市場都會出現波動。

Okay. And the slide says just to expect -- led by HBM's sustained investment in reference to China under DRAM. So that's not what's going to happen?

好的。幻燈片上說，預計－在HBM持續投資DRAM的引領下，中國市場將迎來成長。所以實際情況並非如此？

Unfortunately, I don't have the slides in front of me right now, Stacy. We're having some technical challenges. It's all going to model in.

很抱歉，史泰西，我現在手邊沒有幻燈片。我們遇到了一些技術問題。所有內容都會透過建模導入。

Slide 5, when you pull it up.

投影片 5，當你把它拉起來的時候。

Yes, no problem. Thanks, Stacy.

好的，沒問題。謝謝你，史黛西。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的維韋克·阿亞。

I wanted to revisit your comment about spares doubling. How important is that data point? Like what were you expecting instead versus the actual result? And how much does it increase your confidence about NAND recovery? Because you're not really increasing the WFE expectations for this year, right? So on surface, this comment about spares doubling sounds like a very important data point, but I'm not sure how to quite put that in context of what it means for Lam this year.

我想再次談談您關於備件數量翻倍的評論。這個數據點有多重要？您原本的預期和實際結果相比如何？它對您NAND快閃記憶體恢復的信心提升了多少？因為您並沒有真正提高今年WFE的預期，對嗎？所以表面上看，備件數量翻倍似乎是一個非常重要的數據點，但我不太確定該如何將其與Lam今年的具體情況聯繫起來。

Okay. Well, first, we didn't say spares would double. We said that it was a double-digit percent growth quarter-on-quarter in our spares revenue, so not doubling. But I think that, in general, I mean, the way we look at that and why we made that comment, obviously, it's positive for us to see spares move up.

好的。首先，我們並沒有說備件收入會翻倍。我們說的是備件收入較上季成長兩位數百分比，所以不是翻倍。但總的來說，我認為，就我們看待這個問題的方式以及我們發表那番評論的原因而言，備件收入的增長顯然對我們來說是積極的。

If you think -- go back in our commentary previously about CSBG over the last few years, we've said spares revenue will grow year-on-year because the installed base itself grows. However, through this downturn, the cuts in fab utilization were so severe that we actually saw spares revenue come down, which surprised us a bit, so maybe to your point of expectations.

如果你回顧我們過去幾年對CSBG的評論，我們會發現我們曾說過，由於裝機量本身在增長，備件收入會逐年增長。然而，在這次經濟低迷時期，晶圓廠利用率的下降幅度非常大，以至於我們實際上看到備件收入下降，這讓我們有些意外，所以也許這與你的預期相符。

We knew that as soon as customers started to utilize the fabs and bring some of the tools back online, we would see spares increase. We said that would be the first sign that the end market was really starting to improve. And so the reason we called it out was that, obviously, it's -- it further confirms, I think, what you're hearing from our customers, which is that utilization is starting to improve.

我們知道，一旦客戶開始使用晶圓廠並恢復部分設備的運行，備件需求就會增加。我們當時就說過，這將是終端市場真正開始好轉的第一個跡象。我們之所以特別指出這一點，顯然是因為它進一步證實了我們客戶回饋的訊息，即產能利用率正在逐步提高。

It doesn't tie to WFE because utilization of what you have is one issue. When you choose to spend more to either upgrade technology or add capacity is a second decision. We've said that, that is likely still more of a 2025 event on the equipment spend side. But you have to get the first indication, which is utilization improvement, spares improving and then the rest would come.

這與WFE（設備前端）無關，因為現有設備的使用率是一方面。何時選擇投入更多資金進行技術升級或擴容是另一方面的決定。我們之前說過，就設備支出而言，這可能還要到2025年才會發生。但首先，你必須看到初步跡象，即利用率的提高和備件供應的改善，然後其他方面才會隨之而來。

And then the other thing on the call, I believe, Doug, you mentioned CSBG will be flat year earlier? Or did I not hear that properly? Or did you mean it sequentially? Or did you mean it for this calendar year? Because if it is for the calendar year, that implies pretty strong kind of mid-teens growth in the second half. So if you could clarify what you said about CSBG growth and whatever time frame you were referring to?

還有一點，Doug，我記得你提到CSBG去年同期會持平？是我沒聽清楚嗎？你是說環比持平？還是指本年度？如果是本年度，那就意味著下半年會有相當強勁的15%左右的成長。所以，你能解釋一下你剛才說的CSBG成長情況以及你指的是哪個時段嗎？

Yes, I said flat-ish, plus or minus flat. And by the way, that's not a new disclosure. We said that last quarter as well.

是的，我說的是基本持平，上下浮一點。順便說一句，這並不是什麼新的披露資訊。我們上個季度也這麼說過。

For this calendar year or for...

就本日曆年或…

Correct. For this calendar year, yes.

沒錯。就本年度而言，是的。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

I guess the first question is on DRAM. And could you perhaps talk about some of the moving parts that are going on with that right now? And I think in a previous question, you talked about the China part of DRAM, expecting that to moderate through the year. Obviously, the direct revenue from HBM sounds good. But there's a broader capacity question going on in DRAM that's fungible with HBM. Could you talk about what your expectations are for that as the year progresses?

我想第一個問題是關於DRAM的。您能否談談目前DRAM領域正在發生的一些變化？我記得在之前的問題中，您提到了DRAM在中國市場的銷售情況，並預計今年的成長速度會放緩。顯然，HBM的直接營收聽起來不錯。但是DRAM的產能問題與HBM的產能有一定的關聯性。您能否談談您對今年以來這一問題的預期？

Yes. Let me start. I think just to address this one point about the fungibility of capacity. You're correct. Obviously, if you're looking at DDR5, I think we've made a couple of comments in the past though. One, we're talking specifically about the additional tools that are needed to enable HBM. And so that's why we talk about our electroplating and our Syndion silicon etch tools because those are added to whatever capacity you might have for DRAM, you need to add those tools to make HBM possible. And so that's what we're seeing rise by 3x this year.

是的，讓我先說。我想先談談產能可替代性這一點。您說得對。顯然，如果您關注的是DDR5，我想我們之前也提到過一些相關內容。首先，我們特別提到實現HBM所需的額外工具。這就是為什麼我們會提到我們的電鍍和Syndion矽蝕刻設備，因為無論您現有的DRAM產能是多少，您都需要這些工具才能實現HBM。因此，我們看到今年這方面的產能需求增加了三倍。

On the second side, when you add -- when you go from conventional DRAM to HBM, our customers have talked about and the industry has talked about the much larger die size because you've had to create the real estate that's needed to add the TSVs. And so while you may be able to translate some of the same DRAM equipment over to produce the same number of bits, you'll need more of that equipment as well. So there's -- those are the key drivers as you're moving for additional spending growth as you move into HBM DRAM.

另一方面，從傳統DRAM過渡到HBM時，我們的客戶和業界都提到晶片尺寸會大幅增大，因為需要更大的空間來添加TSV（矽通孔）。因此，雖然部分DRAM設備可以用於生產相同位數的內存，但所需的設備數量也會相應增加。所以，這些都是推動HBM DRAM發展並增加支出的關鍵因素。

Got it. As a follow-up, you made in your prepared remarks a comment talking about $1 billion in revenue from gate-all-around this year. Could you talk about that in context of where the overall opportunity is for gate-all-around? Is this -- is that $1 billion represent what you would consider to be gate-all-around capacity? Is that just getting the processes started? Kind of where are we with that gate-all-around ramp?

明白了。作為後續問題，您在準備好的演講稿中提到今年全方位登機口業務的收入將達到10億美元。您能否談談全方位登機口業務的整體發展前景？這10億美元是否代表您認為的全方位登機口業務的產能？這僅僅是啟動階段嗎？我們目前在全方位登機口業務的推進方面進展如何？

Yes. I mean I think it's -- we're really just starting at gate-all-around. Our comment was $1 billion of shipments into the gate-all-around nodes this year. And it's across all of our types of products that help enable gate-all-around smaller technology nodes. And so what we've said is that every technology node, etch and dep intensity grows and our SAM opportunity expands.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——我們實際上才剛起步於全包圍式工藝。我們之前說過，今年全包圍式製程節點的出貨量將達到10億美元。而且這涵蓋了我們所有有助於實現全包圍式製程的小尺寸技術節點的產品。所以我們說過，隨著每個技術節點、蝕刻和沈積強度的增加，我們的自組裝單晶（SAM）業務機會也在擴大。

And so gate-all-around, being an important node where there's need for new tools from Lam, like in our selective etch product portfolio or in our ALD product portfolio, that might not have existed to the same degree in prior nodes. And so that's -- those are the areas where we're seeing growth as well as just growth in the rest of our advanced technology products in etch and dep .

因此，全方位閘極製程是一個重要的節點，需要 Lam 公司開發新的工具，例如我們選擇性蝕刻產品組合或 ALD 產品組合中的工具，這些工具在先前的節點中可能不那麼常見。因此，這些領域以及我們在蝕刻和沈積等其他先進技術產品領域都看到了成長。

Operator, we'll take 1 more question.

接線員，我們再回答一個問題。

Our next and final question comes from Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個也是最後一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Brian Chin。

The company has previously discussed an incremental $1 billion to $1.5 billion increase in WFE for every 1% AI server penetration. Last year, given the underutilization of capacity and the focus on conversion activity, maybe the math was lower last year. But now that utilization rates for advanced foundry and DRAM nodes have recovered. Do you see AI growth, I guess, driving spending levels more consistent with that $1 billion to $1.5 billion? And do you already see that maybe playing out to some degree in your order backlog?

該公司先前曾討論過，人工智慧伺服器滲透率每提高1%，WFE（晶圓廠設備）支出將增加10億至15億美元。去年，由於產能利用率不足以及公司專注於轉型活動，實際支出可能低於這個數字。但現在，隨著先進晶圓廠和DRAM節點的利用率恢復，您認為人工智慧的成長是否會推動支出水準更接近10億至15億美元？您是否已經從訂單積壓中看到這種增長的跡象？

Yes, Brian, we're not going to talk about order backlog. But the statements we made, and you've got it right, which was for every percent that is an AI server versus an enterprise class server because of the 8x DRAM, much bigger logic die, the GPUs and the 3x NAND, did some $1 billion to $1.5 billion incremental WFE, and that's absolutely still how we see it. And -- but you're right, like if things are underutilized, you don't need to spend nearly as much, but that's a temporary situation. Eventually, things get back to being utilized.

是的，布萊恩，我們不談訂單積壓的問題。但我們之前說過，你理解得沒錯，AI 伺服器相對於企業級伺服器，每增加 1% 的份額，由於 8 倍 DRAM、更大的邏輯晶片、GPU 和 3 倍 NAND 快閃存，就能帶來大約 10 億到 15 億美元的額外 WFE 支出，我們仍然堅持這個觀點。而且──你說得對，如果資源利用率低，確實不需要投入那麼多資金，但這只是暫時的。最終，資源利用率會恢復正常。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just kind of a follow-up on the last follow-up. But again, of that $1 billion kind of shipment for gate-all-around in 2024 calendar year, how much of that is second half weighted? Is it more kind of pilot production? Or how much is it pilot versus high volume?

好的，這很有幫助。然後，我想就上次的後續問題再補充一點。再次強調一下，在2024年全年價值10億美元的環城公路運輸訂單中，下半年的訂單佔比是多少？是更多的是試生產嗎？還是說試生產和大量生產的比例各佔多少？

Yes, we're not going to give color on exactly when we're shipping just because we figure that's more for our customers to talk about in terms of their expansion on those nodes.

是的，我們不會透露特定的發貨時間，因為我們認為這更應該由我們的客戶來討論他們在這些節點上的擴展。

Okay. Fair enough. So it's probably fair if it's more second half biased.

好吧，有道理。如果結果更偏向下半場，那可能也算合理。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝接線生。

That concludes our remarks, guys. Thanks for joining the call.

我們的發言到此結束，各位。感謝各位參與通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和演示到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。