科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2023 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2023 年 12 月季度財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ram Ganesh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資人關係主管拉姆‧加內什先生。請您開始吧。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and CEO; and Doug Bettinger, Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 的季度財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the December 2023 quarter and our outlook for the March 2024 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The release can also be found on the IR section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對當前商業環境的概述，並回顧2023年12月季度的財務業績以及對2024年3月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿已於太平洋時間下午1點後不久發布。您也可以在本公司網站的投資者關係（IR）版塊找到該新聞稿以及本次電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，這些風險和不確定性因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的公開文件中披露。請參閱簡報中的相關投影片以取得更多資訊。除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）為基礎。 GAAP和非GAAP業績之間的詳細調整表可在簡報中的相關幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website.

本次電話會議預計將於太平洋時間下午3點結束。會議錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

那麼，我就把電話交給提姆了。

Thank you, Ram, and welcome, everyone. Lam delivered strong performance in the December quarter. Revenues, gross margin, operating margin and EPS all above the midpoint of our guided ranges. Our results for December closed out a calendar year 2023, in which Lam executed well amid a decline in overall wafer fabrication equipment spending. Compared to the prior year cycle trough in calendar 2019, we achieved a near doubling of EPS.

謝謝Ram，也歡迎各位。 Lam在12月季度業績表現強勁。營收、毛利率、營業利益率和每股盈餘均高於我們預期範圍的中點。 12月的業績為2023年畫上了圓滿的句點。在這一年中，儘管晶圓製造設備整體支出有所下降，Lam依然取得了良好的業績。與2019年周期低谷相比，我們的每股盈餘幾乎翻了一番。

There are a few reasons why Lam has evolved stronger cycle to cycle. First, we have improved our positioning in the foundry, logic and specialty technology segments through sustained investments in innovation and new products. As a result, we have grown our total non-memory revenue share, and we continue to gain momentum at key technology inflections. Second, we have delivered tremendous growth in our customer support business group. Lam ended calendar 2023 with approximately 90,000 chambers in the field, an installed base almost 50% larger than in the previous cycle. CSBG revenue has grown by more than 80% from 2019 levels. And finally, we have further improved our ability to manage costs and drive operational efficiency through cycles, delivering operating margins in 2023 that were nearly 2.5 points higher than the prior trough.

Lam之所以能逐年維持強勁成長，原因有以下幾點。首先，我們透過持續投資創新和新產品，提升了在晶圓代工、邏輯電路和特殊技術領域的市場地位。因此，我們的非記憶體業務總收入份額有所成長，並在關鍵技術轉折點上持續保持成長勢頭。其次，我們的客戶支援業務部門取得了顯著成長。截至2023年底，Lam的現場服務中心裝置量約為9萬台，比上一個週期增加了近50%。客戶支援業務部門的營收較2019年成長超過80%。最後，我們進一步提升了成本控制能力，並在整個週期中提高了營運效率，2023年的營業利潤率比上一個低谷期高出近2.5個百分點。

Turning to WFE. We estimate that 2023 spending ended in the low $80 billion range. This is up slightly from our prior view, driven by continued strength in domestic China spending predominantly in equipment segments where we do not participate.

接下來談談WFE（工作場所設備）。我們預計2023年WFE支出將達到800億美元左右。這略高於我們先前的預期，主要得益於中國國內支出持續強勁，尤其是在我們未涉足的設備領域。

Overall, memory WFE was down nearly 40% year-on-year, led by cuts in NAND spending of more than 75%. Non-memory WFE decreased in the mid-single digits range with mature node growth in China, partially offsetting declines in leading-edge node spending in the rest of the world.

整體而言，記憶體WFE年減近40%，其中NAND支出削減超過75%。非記憶體WFE降幅在個位數中段，這得益於中國成熟製程節點的成長，部分抵消了世界其他地區前沿製程節點支出的下降。

As we enter 2024, the business environment remains muted. However, we expect a modest recovery in memory spending to drive a stronger exit to the year. Our early view of WFE spending for calendar 2024 is in the mid- to high $80 billion range. Growth in DRAM will be driven by capacity additions for high-bandwidth memory as well as node conversions. NAND spending increases will largely come from technology upgrades. We see foundry logic spend growing in 2024 with higher leading-edge investment, offset in part by declines in mature node investment outside of China. Overall, we believe domestic China spending will be stable in 2024.

進入2024年，商業環境依然低迷。然而，我們預期記憶體支出將溫和復甦，從而推動年底市場走強。我們初步預測2024年晶圓廠設備（WFE）支出將在800億美元中高段位。 DRAM的成長將主要得益於高頻寬記憶體產能的增加以及製程節點的轉換。 NAND支出的成長將主要來自技術升級。我們預計2024年晶圓廠邏輯晶片支出將有所成長，這主要得益於前沿技術投資的增加，但部分成長將被中國以外地區成熟製程節點投資的下降所抵銷。整體而言，我們認為2024年中國國內晶片支出將維持穩定。

Longer term, the setup for WFE investment is robust. With semiconductor revenues widely expected to reach $1 trillion around the end of the decade and device manufacturing complexity continuing to rise, we believe WFE spending will need to roughly double from today's levels. Lam's served markets of etch and deposition should outpace growth in WFE overall. For this reason, we have been executing a series of strategic actions to best position the company for the growth opportunity ahead. Importantly, we have remained committed to these initiatives despite the challenging spending environment over the past several quarters.

長遠來看，WFE（晶圓級封裝）投資前景穩健。半導體產業收入預計將在本十年末達到1兆美元，而元件製造的複雜性也將持續上升，因此我們認為WFE領域的支出需要比目前水準翻倍。 Lam公司所服務的蝕刻和沈積市場的成長速度應該會超過WFE產業的整體成長速度。正因如此，我們一直在實施一系列策略性舉措，以使公司更能掌握未來的成長機會。重要的是，儘管過去幾季的支出環境充滿挑戰，但我們始終堅持推進這些措施。

First is our commitment to R&D, including planned spending increases in calendar year 2024 to extend our differentiation in products and services targeted at next-generation semiconductor device inflections. This next era in semiconductors will be defined by the broad move towards 3D architectures and advanced packaging to solve scaling challenges. We believe this will, in turn, drive an increase in etch and deposition intensity over the long term. Our focus is on multiple billion dollar SAM expansion opportunities across memory and foundry logic.

首先，我們致力於研發，包括計劃在2024年增加研發投入，以進一步提升我們在面向下一代半導體裝置發展趨勢的產品和服務方面的差異化優勢。半導體產業的下一個​​時代將以向3D架構和先進封裝技術的廣泛應用為標誌，以解決尺寸縮放方面的挑戰。我們相信，這將反過來推動蝕刻和沈積製程強度的長期成長。我們的重點是記憶體和代工邏輯領域數十億美元的自組裝單晶（SAM）技術拓展機會。

We have profiled our advances in gate-all-around, backside power delivery, advanced packaging and dry EUV patterning over the past several quarters, and our solutions are continuing to gain traction with customers. In the December quarter, we secured additional advanced packaging wins for high-bandwidth memory, which is critical for enabling advanced AI servers.

過去幾個季度，我們重點介紹了我們在全方位柵極封裝、背面供電、先進封裝和乾式極光刻蝕技術方面取得的進展，我們的解決方案也持續獲得客戶的認可。在去年12月的季度中，我們又斬獲了高頻寬記憶體先進封裝的訂單，這對於建立先進的人工智慧伺服器至關重要。

Our SABRE 3D tools, best-in-class plating uniformity along with our ability to demonstrate an overall cost of ownership advantage made Lam the clear choice over a large competitor. In 2024, we expect our HBM related DRAM and packaging shipments to more than triple year-on-year and outpace WFE growth in this segment by a significant margin.

我們憑藉SABRE 3D工具、一流的電鍍均勻性以及卓越的整體擁有成本優勢，在眾多大型競爭對手中脫穎而出，成為我們的不二之選。我們預計，2024年，我們與HBM相關的DRAM和封裝產品的出貨量將年增三倍以上，並顯著超越WFE在該領域的成長速度。

The specialty technology markets are also yielding a diverse set of new opportunities for Lam. For instance, we have recently delivered pulse laser deposition technology to customers targeting high-volume manufacturing of MEMS and next-generation high-frequency devices. We accelerated our entry into this market by integrating technology we obtained via small acquisition onto a production-proven Lam platform. Compared to competing deposition methods, Lam solution enables more highly doped scandium aluminum nitride films, which delivered the piezoelectric performance and cost our customers require.

特種科技市場也為Lam帶來了許多新的機會。例如，我們近期已向專注於微機電系統（MEMS）和下一代高頻裝置大批量生產的客戶提供了脈衝雷射沉積技術。我們透過將小型收購獲得的技術整合到Lam成熟的生產平台上，加速了進入該市場的步伐。與同類沉積方法相比，Lam的解決方案能夠製備更高摻雜濃度的氮化鈧鋁薄膜，從而滿足客戶對壓電性能和成本的要求。

The second area of focus for Lam has been our investment in facilities close to our customers. By establishing process development capabilities near our customers' R&D fabs, we are maximizing collaboration and accelerating time to solutions. We have also made progress ramping supply chain and manufacturing operations within our customer ecosystems. These in-region capabilities enhance our responsiveness and resilience for customers and create significant economic value for Lam as we leverage the benefits of global flexibility. Our new manufacturing facility in Malaysia is poised to fully scale in the coming WFE upturn, providing us the capability to nearly triple the percentage revenue contribution from our lower cost manufacturing locations versus a few years ago.

Lam的第二個重點領域是投資建造靠近客戶的設施。透過在客戶研發工廠附近建立製程開發能力，我們最大限度地加強了合作，並加快了解決方案的交付速度。我們也在客戶生態系統內提升了供應鏈和製造營運能力。這些區域內的能力增強了我們對客戶的反應速度和適應能力，並利用全球靈活性為Lam創造了顯著的經濟價值。我們在馬來西亞的新製造工廠已做好準備，將在即將到來的晶圓製造業復甦之際全面投產，屆時我們低成本製造基地的收入貢獻比例將比幾年前提高近三倍。

And finally, Lam is concentrated on reengineering our business processing systems to drive operational excellence at greater scale. Investments in digital capabilities like virtual twinning, advanced simulation and AI are helping us to accelerate problem solving, and we are building equipment intelligence capabilities and in-fab service automation into our most advanced product road maps.

最後，Lam致力於重組我們的業務流程系統，以更大規模地提升營運效率。我們對虛擬孿生、進階模擬和人工智慧等數位化能力的投資，正在幫助我們加速解決問題；同時，我們也在最先進的產品路線圖中建構設備智慧能力和廠內服務自動化。

As we complete our reengineering efforts, we are also intent on achieving organizational agility. In this regard, we are announcing a small workforce reduction predominantly at the executive level to align our resources with our execution priorities and drive efficiency and speed of decision-making.

在完成重組工作的同時，我們也致力於提升組織敏捷性。為此，我們宣布將進行小幅裁員，主要針對高階主管層，以使資源與執行重點保持一致，並提高決策效率和速度。

In calendar 2023, Lam delivered solid results while investing to build strong capabilities for the future. Looking forward, I am confident that our strategic global infrastructure and differentiated technology portfolio provide Lam with the tools we need to capitalize on the robust semiconductor growth expected in the years ahead.

2023年，Lam在取得穩健業績的同時，也加大了對未來發展能力的投入。展望未來，我相信我們全球策略佈局和差異化技術組合將為Lam提供所需的工具，協助我們掌握未來幾年半導體產業強勁成長的機會。

Thank you, and now here is Doug.

謝謝，現在請道格上場。

Great. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a busy earnings season. We delivered strong financial results in calendar year 2023. Our revenue came in at $14.3 billion and diluted earnings per share at $27.33. We're pleased with the company's execution during the year where the memory WFE mix reached historic lows.

太好了。謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝各位在今天這個繁忙的財報季參加我們的電話會議。我們在2023日曆年取得了強勁的財務表現。我們的營收達到143億美元，稀釋後每股收益為27.33美元。我們對公司在這一年中的執行情況感到滿意，其中記憶體WFE佔比達到了歷史新低。

Let's look at the details of our December quarter results. Revenue for the December quarter was $3.76 billion, which was up 8% from the prior quarter and down 29% from a year ago. Our deferred revenue balance at the end of the quarter was $1.93 billion, which was an increase of $238 million from the September quarter, which was mainly tied to growth in customer advanced payments. We continue to have a higher deferred revenue balance versus historic levels given these customer advanced payments.

讓我們來看看12月季度的業績詳情。 12月季營收為37.6億美元，較上一季成長8%，較去年同期下降29%。季度末遞延收入餘額為19.3億美元，較9月季增加2.38億美元，主要得益於客戶預付款的成長。鑑於這些客戶預付款，我們的遞延收入餘額仍高於歷史水準。

From a segment perspective, December quarter, systems revenue in memory was 48%, which is an increase from the prior quarter level of 38%. The growth in the memory segment was led by DRAM, which was at record levels on a dollar basis, coming in at 31% of systems revenue compared with 23% in the September quarter. DRAM is benefiting from growth in high-bandwidth memory capacity and the move to DDR5, which is needed to address AI-related workloads, and it's also benefiting from shipments to China.

從業務部門來看，12 月季度系統記憶體業務收入佔 48%，較上一季的 38% 有所成長。記憶體業務的成長主要由 DRAM 帶動，DRAM 的營收以美元計算創下歷史新高，佔系統總收入的 31%，高於 9 月季度的 23%。 DRAM 的成長得益於高頻寬記憶體容量的成長以及向 DDR5 的轉型（DDR5 是滿足 AI 相關工作負載需求所必需的），同時，對華出貨量的成長也為其帶來了積極影響。

As we've noted in prior quarters, nonvolatile memory WFE was at historic lows on a mix basis in 2023. For the December quarter, this segment represented 17% of our systems revenue, which was up a little bit from 15% in the prior quarter. The slight growth was predominantly related to investments in certain technology projects. NAND customers have aggressively reduced capacity throughout the year to bring inventory levels down.

正如我們在前幾季所指出的，2023年非揮發性記憶體WFE業務的組成處於歷史低點。在12月季度，該業務占我們系統營收的17%，較上一季的15%略有成長。這一小幅成長主要與對某些技術項目的投資有關。 NAND客戶全年都在積極削減產能，以降低庫存水準。

The Foundry segment represented 38% of our systems revenue, a little higher than the percentage concentration in the September quarter of 36%. Growth was driven by new fab shipments in various regions across several process nodes. The Logic and Other segment was 14% of our systems revenue in the December quarter, which was down from the prior quarter level of 26%. The decline was driven by general mature node softness as well as the timing of customer projects. Overall, in the Foundry and Logic segment, we performed well, delivering on the share gains that we've previously been discussing with you.

晶圓代工業務占我們系統總營收的38%，略高於9月季的36%。成長主要得益於不同地區、涵蓋多個製程節點的新晶圓廠出貨量。邏輯及其他業務占我們12月季度系統總收入的14%，低於上一季的26%。下降的主要原因是成熟工藝節點市場整體疲軟以及客戶專案進度安排。總體而言，晶圓代工和邏輯業務表現良好，並實現了先前與您討論過的市場份額成長目標。

Now I'll discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at 40%, which was down from 48% in the prior quarter. Most of our China revenue in the last 2 quarters was from domestic Chinese customers, and we expect spending from this region to be stable overall in 2024. China as a percent of our revenue is expected to stay relatively high in the March quarter, but it likely trend lower as the year progresses. Our next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 19% of revenue in the December quarter versus 16% in the September quarter. And finally, Japan and Taiwan rounded out the remaining of our top 4 regions.

現在我將討論我們總收入的區域組成。中國地區的營收佔比為40%，低於上一季的48%。過去兩個季度，我們中國地區的大部分收入來自中國國內客戶，我們預計2024年該地區的整體支出將保持穩定。預計中國地區在3月份季度的收入佔比將保持在較高水平，但隨著時間的推移，這一比例可能會下降。韓國是我們收入佔比第二高的地區，在12月份季度佔比為19%，而9月份季度為16%。最後，日本和台灣地區則名列我們前四大收入地區之列。

The customer support business group generated revenue in the December quarter of nearly $1.5 billion, up 2% from the September quarter and 16% lower than the December quarter in calendar year 2022. Overall, the business was steady, and we continue to see our memory customers operating the fabs at very low utilization rates.

客戶支援業務集團在 12 月季度創造了近 15 億美元的收入，比 9 月季度增長了 2%，但比 2022 年 12 月季度下降了 16%。總體而言，業務保持穩定，我們繼續看到我們的記憶體客戶以非常低的利用率運作晶圓廠。

Given the strength of the installed base units, we have a strong foundation for growth with technology conversions and utilization rates resume growing. Spares followed by the Reliant product line continue to be the 2 largest components of CSBG.

鑑於現有設備基數的強勁成長，隨著技術轉換和利用率的恢復成長，我們擁有堅實的成長基礎。備件和Reliant產品線仍然是CSBG的兩大主要組成部分。

Turning to the gross margin performance. The December quarter came in at 47.6%, which is above the midpoint of guidance and generally in line with the September quarter level, which was 47.9%. We've improved elements of our cost structure during the year and delivered on our commitment to improve gross margin from the 2023 March quarter level by approximately 1 percentage point as we exited calendar year 2023 from those operational improvements. December quarter operating expenses were $662 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $622 million. R&D as a percent of spending was higher versus the September quarter, coming in at over 69% of total expenses.

接下來談談毛利率表現。 12月季毛利率為47.6%，高於預期中位數，與9月季的47.9%基本持平。年內，我們優化了部分成本結構，並兌現了先前承諾，在2023年底，毛利率較2023年3月季度水準提高約1個百分點。這些營運改善措施的實施使毛利率在2023年全年得以實現。 12月季度營運費用為6.62億美元，高於上一季的6.22億美元。研發支出佔總支出的比例高於9月季度，超過69%。

The increased spending reflects our ongoing focus on extending our product and technology differentiation across those critical inflections that Tim mentioned earlier. We will continue to grow investments across multiple market segments to support the long-term strategic objectives for ongoing company outperformance.

增加支出反映了我們持續致力於在蒂姆之前提到的關鍵轉折點上拓展產品和技術差異化優勢。我們將持續增加在多個細分市場的投資，以支持公司長期策略目標的實現，進而持續超越市場預期。

Operating margin for the current quarter was 30%, in line with September quarter level of 30.1% and above the midpoint of our guidance primarily because of a stronger gross margin performance.

本季營業利潤率為 30%，與 9 月季度的 30.1% 持平，高於我們預期的中點，這主要是由於毛利率表現強勁。

Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 12.3%, generally in line with expectations. Looking into calendar 2024, we believe the tax rate will be in the low to mid-teens with the normal fluctuations quarter-by-quarter. Other income expense for the December quarter came in at $5 million in income compared with $7 million in income in the September quarter. The slight fluctuation in OI&E was mainly due to variations in exchange rates. OI&E will continue to be subject to market-related fluctuations that could cause some level of volatility each quarter.

本季非GAAP稅率為12.3%，基本符合預期。展望2024年，我們預期稅率將維持在10%至15%的低位，並會根據季度狀況出現正常波動。 12月季度其他收入及支出為500萬美元，而9月季為700萬美元。其他收入及支出的輕微波動主要是由於匯率波動所致。其他收入及支出將持續受到市場相關波動的影響，這可能導致每季出現一定程度的波動。

On the capital return side, we allocated approximately $640 million to open market share repurchases, and we paid $264 million in dividends in the December quarter. For the 2023 calendar year, we returned 79% of our free cash flow, totaling $3.8 billion, which was largely consistent with our long-term capital return plans of 75% to 100%. December quarter diluted earnings per share was $7.52 over the midpoint of our guidance. Diluted share count rounded down to 132 million shares on track with our expectations and down from the September quarter.

在資本回報方面，我們分配了約6.4億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在12月季度支付了2.64億美元的股息。 2023日曆年，我們返還了79%的自由現金流，總計38億美元，這與我們75%至100%的長期資本回報計畫基本一致。 12月季度稀釋後每股收益比我們預期的中位數高出7.52美元。稀釋後股份數量向下取整至1.32億股，符合我們的預期，但低於9月季。

During 2023, we repurchased nearly 5 million shares through our share buyback program. And I would just mention, we have $2.1 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

2023年，我們透過股票回購計畫回購了近500萬股。另外，我想提一下，我們經董事會批准的股票回購計畫中還有21億美元的剩餘額度。

Let me turn to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the December quarter totaled $5.6 billion, up from $5.2 billion in the September quarter. The increase was largely due to collections, offset by cash allocated to share repurchases, dividend payments and capital expenditures. Overall, 2023 was a record year for cash flows from operations coming in at $5.3 billion. Days sales outstanding was 66 days in the December quarter, which was a decrease from 73 days in the September quarter. As a result of our operational focus and execution, I'm pleased to report that inventory turns improved to 1.8x from the prior quarter level of 1.5x. We will continue to work on bringing inventory down throughout calendar 2024.

讓我來看一下資產負債表。截至12月底，我們的現金及短期投資總額為56億美元，高於9月底的52億美元。成長主要歸功於應收帳款的收回，但部分被分配用於股票回購、股利支付和資本支出的現金所抵銷。整體而言，2023年是經營活動現金流創紀錄的一年，達到53億美元。 12月底的應收帳款週轉天數為66天，低於9月底的73天。由於我們專注於營運並有效執行，我很高興地報告，存貨週轉率從上一季的1.5倍提高到1.8倍。我們將繼續努力，在2024年全年降低存貨水準。

Our noncash expenses for the December quarter included approximately $70 million for equity compensation, $78 million for depreciation and $13 million for amortization. Capital expenditures for the December quarter were $115 million, up $38 million from the September quarter.

12月季度的非現金支出包括約7,000萬美元的股權激勵費用、7,800萬美元的折舊費用和1,300萬美元的攤提費用。 12月季度的資本支出為1.15億美元，比9月季度增加3800萬美元。

Spending was primarily centered on product development activities and lab expansions in the United States and Asia, supporting our global lab investment strategy. We ended the -- excuse me, the December quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was flat with the prior quarter.

支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的產品研發活動和實驗室擴建上，以支持我們的全球實驗室投資策略。截至12月底，我們擁有約17,200名正式全職員工，與上一季持平。

Let's now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the March 2024 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 48%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This gross margin guidance is reflected -- reflective of continued favorable customer mix. I do expect this favorable mix to mitigate somewhat as the year progresses. Operating margins of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. I would again highlight that the March 2024 quarter will have higher spending as it includes an extra week in the quarter, which occurs every several years. It's a 14-week quarter. And I will also remind you we will be growing R&D spending this year.

現在我們來看看2024年3月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計營收為37億美元，上下浮動3億美元。毛利率為48%，上下浮動1個百分點。這項毛利率指引反映了持續有利的客戶組合。我預計隨著時間的推移，這種有利的客戶組合會減弱。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。我想再次強調，2024年3月季度的支出將會增加，因為該季度包含每隔幾年才會出現的額外一周。這是一個14週的季度。我還想提醒大家，我們今年的研發支出將會增加。

And finally, we're expecting earnings per share of $7.25, plus or minus $0.75 based on a share count of approximately 132 million shares. We continue to be focused on improving our business operations to optimize efficiency and effectiveness as WFE growth occurs. Our profitability metrics reflect the progress we made during calendar year 2023, with business realignment and transformational activities well underway. We'll see these activities continue in the first half of calendar year 2024. Including the cost incurred for these improvement activities and headcount reductions that we saw in calendar 2023, I now expect we'll spend in total $300 million for these actions, which will continue to be reported in our non-GAAP adjustments.

最後，我們預期每股盈餘為7.25美元，上下浮動0.75美元，基於約1.32億股的股數。我們將繼續專注於改善業務運營，以在WFE成長的同時優化效率和效益。我們的獲利能力指標反映了我們在2023日曆年的進展，業務調整和轉型活動正在順利進行中。這些活動將在2024年曆年上半年持續進行。考慮到我們在2023日曆年開展的這些改進活動和裁員所產生的成本，我預計我們將總共花費3億美元用於這些舉措，這些支出將繼續在我們的非GAAP調整中報告。

I had previously told you we would spend $250 million over 12 months. It's now $50 million higher and 6 months longer.

我之前告訴過你們，我們將在12個月內花費2.5億美元。現在，花費增加了5000萬美元，工期也延長了6個月。

So let me conclude. Over many semiconductor cycles, Lam has established a proven track record of successfully managing our business. With the actions we've taken over the course of the last several quarters, we expect to strengthen our operations and technology leadership and further enhance our profitability profile. When revenue scales into the next upturn, Lam will be stronger, better positioned and more efficient.

最後，我想總結一下。在多個半導體產業週期中，Lam 已經建立了成功管理業務的良好記錄。憑藉過去幾季採取的各項措施，我們期望能夠加強營運和技術領先地位，並進一步提升獲利能力。當營收在下一輪增長期到來時，Lam 將更加強大、更有優勢、更有效率。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們的發言到此結束。現在，我和提姆想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Tim Arcuri from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提姆·阿庫裡。

I guess my first question for you, Tim, is I wondered if you could sort of translate. Obviously, you heard your big litho peer that reported today that had these huge orders and it looks like a couple of billion dollars in EUV orders for DRAM. So that sort of translates to an extra $9 billion to $10 billion, something like that. So it seems mostly for shipments during this year and even into next year for them. So like maybe you haven't seen that yet. But can you talk about what that tells you about the future of that segment? And I know you think it's going to be up, but it seems like it could be up a lot. And maybe any change in the planning outlook or the discussions that you're having with your DRAM customers?

提姆，我想問你的第一個問題是，你能幫我翻譯嗎？顯然，你聽說了你那家大型光刻同行今天發布的報告，他們獲得了巨額訂單，看起來DRAM的EUV訂單額高達數十億美元。這相當於額外增加了90億到100億美元，大概是這樣。這些訂單似乎主要針對今年甚至明年的出貨量。也許你還沒看到這些。你能談談這對你來說意味著什麼嗎？我知道你認為這個領域會成長，但似乎成長幅度會很大。你和DRAM客戶的計畫展望或討論是否有任何變化？

Sure. Thanks, Tim. And obviously, WFE is a tricky thing to forecast because generally, we have a very good view of certain segments of the market. And we try to give an overall view of WFE, and we do that based on listening to peers, talking to customers and making our own assessments. Yes, sometimes we get it wrong. And I guess we're always in a period of adjusting that. I think though -- I didn't -- I don't think there's anything out there that is completely inconsistent with what we've said. We've said WFE is up this year, modestly recovering because of memory. It's -- we'd see a stronger exit to the year. And I think to the magnitude, I think we're just going to keep watching it and having those conversations with customers.

當然。謝謝，蒂姆。顯然，WFE（出廠預期）很難預測，因為我們通常對某些細分市場有非常清晰的了解。我們試圖提供WFE的整體情況，而這基於傾聽同儕意見、與客戶溝通以及我們自身的評估。是的，有時我們會出錯。我想我們一直在不斷調整。不過，我認為──我沒有──我認為目前沒有什麼與我們先前的說法完全矛盾。我們說過，由於記憶效應，WFE今年有所上升，略有回升。我們預計年底會更加強勁。至於具體幅度，我認為我們會繼續觀察，並與客戶保持溝通。

In this period, lead times of equipment and the framework in which certain pieces of equipment need to be ordered and brought into fabs can differ equipment supplier to equipment supplier, and maybe there's something at play there. But I think it probably further reinforces our bullishness that memory has been at a historically low mix of WFE. We said that memory spending across both DRAM and NAND. We felt was at unsustainable levels. We said that on pretty much every call last year.

在此期間，不同設備供應商的交貨週期以及特定設備的訂購和運抵晶圓廠的流程可能有所不同，這或許是造成市場波動的原因之一。但我認為這可能進一步強化了我們對儲存領域前景的樂觀預期，即儲存設備在晶圓廠設備 (WFE) 中的佔比一直處於歷史低點。我們曾表示，DRAM 和 NAND 的儲存支出都處於不可持續的水平。去年幾乎每次電話會議上我們都強調了這一點。

And -- so I think that it's not a surprise that, that eventually corrects itself. What I would point out is that we don't spend a tremendous amount of time trying to get the timing exactly right. In my script, I talked a lot about strategic actions, which play out over years and, in fact, catch the DRAM inflections that are coming now. The strength we have in high-bandwidth memory, the positions we have in applications in DDR5 and beyond. Those were established by us seeing DRAM opportunities years ago. And I think we're continuing to report more and more growth in that segment. And I think we'll just continue to do that. So we tend to take a long-term view of technology and spending patterns.

所以，我認為這種情況最終會自行糾正，這並不令人驚訝。我想指出的是，我們並沒有花很多時間精確把握時機。在我的演講稿中，我著重談到了策略行動，這些行動需要數年時間才能逐步實施，實際上也正是為了回應當前DRAM的轉捩點。我們在高頻寬記憶體領域的優勢，以及在DDR5及更高版本應用領域的地位，都是我們多年前就洞察到DRAM機會而建立起來的。我認為，我們在這個領域的成長勢頭會持續增強，而且我認為這種成長勢頭還會繼續下去。因此，我們傾向於從長遠角度看待技術和支出模式。

And Tim, it's Doug. I'll just remind you something that I know you know very well that with those lead times are generally much longer than ours are in etch and deposition. And you never buy litho without eventually buying the process equipment that goes along with it. So if they're seeing something, we will see it, too.

提姆，我是道格。我只想提醒你一點，我知道你很清楚，他們的交貨週期通常比我們蝕刻和沈積的周期長得多。而且，你不可能只購買光刻服務而不購買配套的製程設備。所以，如果他們發現了什麼，我們也會看到。

Totally, Doug. Yes, for sure. So I guess for you, Doug, super quick. So there's kind of a lot of moving parts, I know going on in gross margin. I know that the mix is helping you. And I know you're probably getting some tailwinds from some cost relief and things like that. So what's the right normalized margin? I know maybe 48% is not the right normalized number, but is it like is the mix helping you by 50 basis points, and that's what sort of goes away. Can you sort of help us there?

完全正確，Doug。是的，當然。所以Doug，我想請你快速回答一下。我知道毛利率牽涉很多因素。我知道產品組合對你有幫助。我也知道你可能會受益於一些成本削減之類的利多因素。那麼，正確的標準化毛利率是多少？我知道48%可能不是正確的標準化數字，但產品組合是否能幫你提高50個基點，而這部分影響會消失呢？能幫我們分析一下嗎？

Yes. Tim, I'll remind you what I said last quarter call too, still kind of the same thing. The customer mix is benefiting us again in the March quarter guide, maybe even a little bit more than it did last quarter. I took you back to that June quarter of last year before we had such a favorable geographic mix and that largely is what's driving the customer mix.

是的，提姆，我再提醒你一下，我在上個季度電話會議上也說過類似的話。客戶結構再次對我們有利，這在三月的季度業績指引中體現得尤為明顯，甚至可能比上個季度還要好一些。我之前提到過去年六月的季度，那時我們的地域結構還沒有這麼有利，而這正是目前客戶結構變化的主要原因。

We were around 46% gross margin, 45.7%, I think, if I remember the June quarter specifically. That's not a bad place to kind of start when mix normalizes back to maybe more normal levels. So think about it that way. Somewhere in between there and where we are here. These operational improved install that we've been talking about are real things and as growth resumes and we know growth will resume at some juncture, we should benefit from like repositioning the company to these lower cost locations. So that's still on the come line. but it will require some level of growth in the business.

我們當時的毛利率大約是46%，如果我沒記錯的話，應該是6月那一季的45.7%。如果產品組合恢復正常水平，這算是一個不錯的起點。所以你可以這樣想。介於我們目前的情況和之前的情況之間。我們一直在討論的營運改善措施是切實可行的，隨著業務成長的恢復（我們知道成長終會恢復），我們將受益於公司向成本更低地區的重新佈局。這仍然是我們計劃的一部分，但這需要業務達到一定的成長水平。

The next question is from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Again, going back to your large litho peer that reported this morning, right? They called out seeing an increase in customer utilization of their litho tools, both in memory and in Foundry and Logic, appearing that this is the early signal of a positive turn in cyclical dynamics. I know you guys are also track in real time utilization, activity rates of your customers. I know they're at very low levels, but are you guys starting to see some pickup in utilization rates across your customers? And is that also maybe giving you further confidence in your modest growth outlook for WFE this year?

再說回你們那家今天早上發布報告的大型光刻同行，對吧？他們提到，客戶對其光刻設備的利用率有所提高，無論是在記憶體、晶圓代工或邏輯電路領域，這似乎是周期性動態出現積極轉變的早期訊號。我知道你們也在即時追蹤客戶的使用率和活躍度。我知道目前客戶的使用率非常低，但你們是否開始看到客戶利用率回升？這是否也讓你們對今年WFE業務的溫和成長預期更有信心？

Yes. We've said in the past that we -- obviously, we track that pretty closely. I think you've heard our customers talk about increasing utilization. We've certainly seen and heard from our customers talk of strengthening in pricing in those markets. How we said it would affect us? I mean, in markets like NAND, we said we would -- with so much utilization taken offline, we would see some uptick in our spares business. We see that start to flow through upgrades. And as I mentioned in my script, we anticipate that a big portion of the uptick in memory spending this year will be coming through technology upgrades where -- the installed base is Lam equipment and therefore, the benefit -- a lot of the benefit of that WFE spending will flow to Lam as we do those technology upgrades.

是的。我們之前說過，我們——顯然——密切關注著這一點。我想您也聽到了我們的客戶談論提高利用率。我們當然也看到並聽到客戶談到這些市場的價格上漲。我們之前說過這會對我們產生什麼影響？我的意思是，在像NAND這樣的市場，我們說過，由於大量設備下線，我們的備件業務會有所成長。我們看到這種成長開始透過升級來實現。正如我在演講稿中提到的，我們預計今年記憶體支出成長的很大一部分將來自技術升級，因為Lam的設備是現有設備，因此，隨著我們進行這些技術升級，WFE支出的大部分收益將流向Lam。

The other element of the spending will be coming from the additional equipment that needs to get added to enable things like high bandwidth memory. And we've talked about the fact that in high bandwidth memory, Lam has a 100% market share of the critical technologies needed for stacking the DRAM. So I'll let our customers speak to what their utilizations are but what I'd say is that all signs are pointing to the memory market beginning to come out of its pretty darn near historic downturn over the last couple of years. And so that's what we're looking at for this year.

另一部分支出將來自為實現高頻寬記憶體等功能而需要新增的裝置。我們之前提到過，在高頻寬記憶體領域，Lam 公司在 DRAM 堆疊所需的關鍵技術方面擁有 100% 的市場份額。至於他們的實際應用情況，就讓我們的客戶來談談。但我想說的是，種種跡象表明，記憶體市場正開始走出過去幾年幾乎是歷史性的低迷期。這就是我們今年的展望。

That's very helpful. And then you mentioned this, I mean, your CSBG business has grown at a 17% CAGR since 2019, right? That's significantly faster than I think it was a 10% to 11% CAGR target that you guys put out at your last Analyst Day. I know it's been weak over the past few quarters, just given some of the supply side discipline of your customers, lower utilizations, slowing tech migration. But assuming that you will see the pickup in activity sometime this year. You combine that with a strong continued growth in the installed base business, number of chambers continues to grow at a low double-digit growth rate. Like how should we think about the growth profile, puts and takes of CSBG this year and going forward?

這很有幫助。您剛才提到，自 2019 年以來，您的 CSBG 業務複合年增長率 (CAGR) 達到了 17%，對吧？這比你們上次分析師日給出的 10% 到 11% 的 CAGR 目標要快得多。我知道過去幾季業績疲軟，這主要是由於客戶在供應方面的一些限制，例如利用率下降和技術遷移速度放緩。但假設今年某個時候業務活動會回升，再加上現有業務持續強勁成長，氣室數量也持續以兩位數的低成長率成長。那麼，我們該如何看待 CSBG 今年及未來的成長前景和預期呢？

Yes, I don't know that we're going to put a number on the growth rate for CSBG at this point. But clearly, that business has been heavily impacted by the utilization cuts that occurred within our customer fabs. And we saw that both in spares as well as a curtailment of many of the technology upgrades that typically would just occur year in, year out. And so that did have an impact on CSBG revenues. I think that going forward, I talked about how much larger the installed base is now. That's a much larger installed base that because of the delay in technology upgrades, there's pent-up demand there. I mean those tools need to be upgraded to be operating at the latest and most efficient and most competitive technology node for our customers. And so I don't know the exact timing, but I do know that installed base will be upgraded and will actually generate quite a lot of revenue for Lam going forward.

是的，目前我還不確定能否給出CSBG的成長率的具體數字。但顯然，客戶晶圓廠產能利用率的下降對CSBG業務造成了嚴重影響。我們看到，備件庫存減少，許多通常每年都會進行的技術升級也受到了影響。因此，這確實對CSBG的收入產生了影響。展望未來，正如我之前提到的，現在的裝機量已經大幅成長。由於技術升級的延遲，這個龐大的裝置量累積了巨大的潛在需求。我的意思是，這些設備需要升級，才能在客戶所需的最新、最高效、最具競爭力的技術節點上運作。因此，我無法確定具體的升級時間，但我知道裝機量將會升級，未來將為Lam帶來相當可觀的收入。

And Harlan, maybe just like to remind you, there's 4 components in CSBG, spare service upgrades, all of which will benefit from what Tim was describing. You also have the Reliant product line in there, which has just done amazing in the last year. That will ebb and flow to a certain extent with more mature nodes, specialty node WFE. So don't lose sight of that one. There might be a slightly different dynamic with the Reliant product line.

哈蘭，或許我想提醒你一下，CSBG 包含四個元件，即備用服務升級，所有這些元件都會受益於提姆剛才所描述的內容。此外，還有 Reliant 產品線，它在過去一年中表現非常出色。隨著更成熟的節點和專用節點 WFE 的發展，其影響可能會有所波動。所以不要忽視這一點。 Reliant 產品線的發展動態可能略有不同。

The next question is from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

First one, Tim, historically, you guys have benefited disproportionately when the NAND spending happens. And -- if you were to think about your position competitively when the NAND spending recovers, I understand this year there's more technology upgrades. But how should we think about your position coming out of this NAND downturn competitively, particularly on more layers than the whole etch process?

首先，Tim，從歷史數據來看，當NAND快閃支出激增時，你們總是能獲得不成比例的收益。而且——如果你要考慮NAND快閃記憶體支出回升後你們的競爭地位，我知道今年會有更多技術升級。但是，我們該如何看待你們在NAND快閃記憶體低迷期後的競爭地位，尤其是在涉及多個層面（而非整個蝕刻製程）的層面？

Yes. I think that -- it's a good question, and that was what I pointed out. I mean I think what we're looking at in the near term in those first stages of recovery is customers are very cost sensitive. And the best way to achieve that next technology node by upgrading the equipment that you have in place. And so Lam, we spend a tremendous amount of time investing in technologies that enable the upgrade and extension of our equipment, and that's really of high value to our customers. I think that will actually go on for quite a long time.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，我也正是指出了這一點。我的意思是，我認為在復甦的初期階段，客戶對成本非常敏感。而實現下一代技術節點的最佳方法就是升級現有設備。因此，Lam公司投入大量時間研發能夠升級和擴展我們設備的先進技術，這對我們的客戶來說確實價值巨大。我認為這種情況還會持續相當長一段時間。

We have about 6,500 chambers of high aspect ratio etch, for instance, in the NAND marketplace. That creates a lot of next-generation technology through those upgrades. And beyond that, the learning you get from now running those upgraded chambers at that next technology node, tends to seed all of the ideas and understanding of the challenges that need to be solved at the next node. And I think that's why the installed base positions and incumbent positions tend to be very difficult to break in this industry.

例如，在NAND快閃記憶體市場，我們擁有大約6500個高深寬比蝕刻腔。這些升級改造催生了大量的下一代技術。此外，透過在下一代技術節點上運行這些升級後的蝕刻腔所獲得的經驗，往往會孕育出所有關於下一代節點需要解決的挑戰的想法和理解。我認為，這就是為什麼在這個產業中，現有市場和既有企業的地位往往很難被撼動的原因。

And we've tried to break many others -- break into others. And so we know that very well. What Lam has done extremely well is to collaborate closely with our customers. I talked about our close to customer strategy, putting R&D labs in very close proximity to our customers. And again, that's just the way in which we ensure that we're adequately meeting both their technology and cost needs going forward.

我們也嘗試過打入其他公司——或者說，融入其他公司。所以我們非常清楚這一點。 Lam 做得非常出色的一點是與客戶緊密合作。我之前談到我們貼近客戶的策略，即將研發實驗室設在客戶附近。再次強調，這正是我們確保未來能充分滿足客戶技術和成本需求的方式。

Great. And then a quick clarification, Doug, on the OpEx. You said R&D will be up year-over-year. I wasn't sure if that implies total OpEx is also up or SG&A is down to offset the increase in R&D?

好的。 Doug，關於營運支出，我還有一個問題想請教一下。你說研發支出會較去年同期成長。我不確定這是否意味著總營運支出也會成長，還是說銷售、管理及行政費用會下降以抵銷研發支出的成長？

Total OpEx is probably going to be up Atif, R&D will be up more, right? We had 69% of total spending in R&D in the last quarter. That's a high watermark. But we're purposefully growing R&D., primarily because of all those inflections that we've been talking about.

阿提夫，總營運支出可能會增加，研發支出增幅會更大，對吧？上季我們的研發支出佔總支出的69%，創歷史新高。但我們正在有意識地增加研發投入，主要是因為我們一直在討論的那些關鍵轉折點。

I think the maybe the easiest way to think about it is the lead time for us to develop new products that we need to drive growth is unfortunately a little bit longer than the lead time for our spending revenue. So with an outlook that growth is coming and that we're entering this next upturn, where there are tremendous opportunities for the company, we feel very confident to invest ahead of that revenue showing up, and that's I think what we signaled through this year. But with the confidence that we're going to see that growth in new products and technology investment from our customers.

我認為最簡單的理解方式是，我們開發推動成長所需的新產品所需的時間，不幸的是，比我們支出收入所需的時間要長一些。因此，鑑於成長即將到來，我們正進入下一個上升期，公司將迎來巨大的機遇，我們非常有信心在收入出現之前進行投資，我認為這正是我們今年一直在傳遞的訊息。我們相信，客戶會在新產品和技術投資方面帶來成長。

The next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

The first one on WFE. Doug, I -- forget if you mentioned this, but is there a first half, second half sort of bias that you're willing to share as we think about the trajectory of WFE this year? And more importantly, curious how we should be thinking about your rate of outperformance vis-a-vis the market? You guys have talked about obviously, depth and etch intensity growing across the memory space. You talked about advanced packaging in HBM. HBM things like dry resist. So assuming you're accurate with your WFE assumption and the market's up call it, mid- to high singles. What sort of outperformance can we sort of expect from you guys in calendar '24?

關於WFE的第一個問題。 Doug，我——我忘了​​你有沒有提過，但你願意分享一下你對今年WFE發展軌蹟的預期，例如上半年和下半年的偏好嗎？更重要的是，我們該如何看待你們相對於市場的超額報酬？你們之前提到過，記憶體領域的蝕刻深度和強度都在不斷提高。你們也談到了HBM的先進封裝技術，例如乾式光阻。假設你們對WFE的預測是準確的，並且市場整體上漲（我們姑且稱之為中高端單價），那麼在2024年，我們能期待你們的超額收益達到什麼水平呢？

Yes. Toshiya, I guess the first -- I think it's a little bit second half weighted year this year. I think it's going to be sort of the slow start to the year, maybe, right? We just guided to essentially flat revenues quarter-on-quarter. So that's part of what you're seeing, but we would expect it will be somewhat stronger in the second half. And then overall, we're not going to give you the individual components between NAND, DRAM, Foundry and Logic, what grows more. I think everything probably grows to a certain extent. When we look at all these inflections so in all aspects of those end markets, we see etch and deposition intensity stepping up as you walk from node to node to node. So that is unchanged.

是的。 Toshiya，我想首先——我認為今年下半年表現會比較突出。我覺得年初可能會比較慢，對吧？我們剛剛預測營收將基本環比持平。所以這就是你目前看到的情況，但我們預計下半年會有所改善。至於整體而言，我們不會具體指出NAND、DRAM、晶圓代工和邏輯電路哪個部分成長更多。我認為所有部分都會在一定程度上增長。當我們觀察所有這些轉折點，也就是終端市場的各個面向時，我們發現隨著製程節點的推進，蝕刻和沈積強度都在不斷提高。這一點沒有改變。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on China, Doug, you mentioned China as a percentage of your systems revenue to stay elevated in the March quarter. And then you went on to say that, that number should decline as you progress through the year. Is that just purely a function of your other businesses, other regions improving throughout the year? Or are you sort of sensing absolute decline in your China business? And if so, what are some of the areas or device types or applications you're seeing a slowdown?

明白了。關於中國市場，Doug，我還有一個後續問題。你提到，中國市場佔你們系統收入的比例在三月的季度保持在高水準。然後你又說，隨著時間的推移，這個比例應該會下降。這只是因為你們其他業務，或是其他地區在年內業績有改善嗎？還是說你們感覺到中國市場的整體業務正在下滑？如果是這樣，你們觀察到哪些領域、設備類型或應用程式出現了放緩？

We are not seeing China slowdown. It's purely just timing of when spending is occurring, honestly.

我們並沒有看到中國經濟放緩。說實話，這純粹是消費發生時機的問題。

Toshiya, we've preferably been using the word, and I think you heard it in both Tim and my comments stable, right? So that's a consistent description that we have been saying for a while.

Toshiya，我們一直都比較傾向於使用這個詞，我想你也在我和Tim的評論區聽過，對吧？所以這是我們一直以來所使用的統一描述。

The next question is from C.J. Muse with Cantor.

下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Cantor。

I guess I was hoping you could speak to kind of your vision for what a recovery might look like for NAND and where we might get to on a normalized basis, perhaps in 2025? And then -- and if you reflect on perhaps a lower normalized number and think about some of the new areas that you're investing in, whether it's memory or advanced packaging or changes in backside power gate-all-around. Is there enough kind of juice there to get you to where you can overall drive that rich WFE intensity and get us back to kind of those peak levels when 3D NAND was first adopted?

我希望您能談談您對NAND快閃復甦的展望，以及我們或許能在2025年左右達到怎樣的正常水平？然後——如果您考慮一個更低的正常水平，並思考一下您正在投資的一些新領域，無論是記憶體、先進封裝還是背面電源閘極的改進，這些領域是否有足夠的動力來推動WFE（晶圓前端）的全面發展，並使我們回到3D NAND剛推出時的巔峰水平？

Sure, C.J. I think the simple answer is, yes, we do believe that. I mean, we've -- let me address the NAND question first, which -- as I mentioned, this year, customers are primarily focusing on technology upgrades and what makes sense. I mean eventually, to drive the type of bit growth that we think we see longer term. Obviously, there are some additions that need to be made, but we're not forecasting that this year.

當然，C.J.，我認為簡單的答案是肯定的，我們確實這麼認為。我的意思是，我們——讓我先談談NAND的問題，正如我所提到的，今年客戶主要關注的是技術升級以及哪些升級是合理的。我的意思是，最終是為了推動我們預期的長期比特成長。顯然，還需要進行一些改進，但我們預計今年不會進行這些改進。

With each of those technology evolutions, etch and dep intensity rises simply because of the increasing number of layers. And in a technology upgrade, we've talked about the fact that Lam captures a much higher percentage of WFE because of the goal that etch and deposition play in the technology upgrade. So I think that as we see NAND growing -- recovering and growing at a certain percentage rate, Lam will actually significantly outperform that rate because of the fact that most of that is coming from upgrades.

隨著技術的不斷演進，刻蝕和沈積強度都會因層數的增加而提升。在技​​術升級中，我們已經討論過，由於蝕刻和沈積在技術升級中扮演著重要角色，Lam 技術能夠佔據更高的 WFE 佔比。因此，我認為隨著 NAND 快閃記憶體的成長——以一定的成長率恢復和成長——Lam 技術的實際表現將顯著優於這一成長率，因為大部分成長都來自技術升級。

Now longer term, I think we have turned to our attention and strategically, we've said we want to build resilience into our business by really capturing a lot of the opportunities that exist. Of course in NAND where we're very strong, but really outside of NAND and some of these other markets that are becoming more etch and dep intensive. And we've talked about those, whether it's gate-all-around or backside power or advanced packaging, dry EUV patterning. And each of those, we've characterized as a $1 billion-plus opportunity when fully scaled for Lam. So -- and those are SAM expansion meaning that they are incremental to where Lam has been before.

現在，從長遠來看，我認為我們已經將注意力轉向策略層面，我們希望透過抓住各種現有機會來增強業務的韌性。當然，在NAND領域，我們擁有非常強大的實力，但實際上，除了NAND​​之外，還有一些其他市場，例如蝕刻和沈積過程日益密集的領域，我們也在積極探索。我們已經討論過這些領域，例如全環柵極、背面供電、先進封裝以及乾式EUV光刻等。我們認為，當這些領域全面擴展後，對Lam而言，每個領域都將帶來超過10億美元的市場機會。這些都是SAM（軟體資產管理）的擴張，意味著它們是Lam現有業務的漸進式拓展。

So I think when you play those out and obviously, we have to be successful in execution. That's why we keep talking about we're gaining traction, but there's still a ways to go before these inflections and all decisions are made. But we think those can certainly drive Lam to new highs in terms of revenue and obviously profitability as well.

所以我覺得，當我們把這些計劃付諸實行時，顯然，我們必須成功執行。這就是為什麼我們一直在說我們正在取得進展，但在這些轉折點到來、所有決策最終確定之前，還有很長的路要走。但我們相信，這些措施肯定能推動 Lam 在營收和獲利能力方面都達到新高。

Very helpful, Tim. I guess a quick follow-up, Doug. I know you're hesitant to guide OpEx for the full year, but perhaps you could help us understand maybe the impact of the extra week on the March quarter? And how you're thinking about driving that R&D growth through the calendar year?

提姆，非常感謝你的幫忙。道格，我想再問一個後續問題。我知道你不太願意給出全年的營運支出預測，但或許你能幫我們了解一下，多出來的一周會對三月份的季度產生什麼影響？以及你打算如何推動全年的研發成長？

Yes, C.J. I mean, it's 14 weeks versus 13. That's the right way to kind of think about it. You can just ratio it to understand kind of it's a longer quarter. So that's the piece from that. And then any delta to get to the 29.5% op margin is part of that beginning to step up R&D. As we go through the year, though, we will purposely be growing the investment in R&D so that you might not see the historic leverage that we've delivered is what I described a quarter ago, and that's still very much how you should be thinking about it.

是的，C.J.，我的意思是，現在是14週而不是13週。這樣理解才是正確的。你可以用比例來理解，這是一個更長的季度。這就是關鍵所在。至於達到29.5%的營業利益率，這部分成長是研發投入逐步增加的結果。不過，隨著年內業績的推進，我們會持續增加研發投入，所以你可能不會再看到像上個季度那樣的歷史性槓桿效應，但你仍然應該這樣看待這個問題。

The next question is from Srinivas Pajjuri with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Srinivas Pajjuri。

Tim, you talked about your trough EPS doubling essentially, which is a tremendous achievement and execution. I think part of the reason was your services business did increase as a percent of the mix. I think that helped for sure stabilizing the cyclicality a bit. So as we go through the next, I guess, as we kind of look out to the next couple of years as business recovers, just curious as to how you think about the mix shaking out between systems and services? And how -- what sort of implications that might have for your top line and also your margin profile? And I guess, on the next peak EPS, if you want to talk about?

提姆，你剛才提到你們的每股盈餘在低谷期幾乎翻了一番，這的確是一項了不起的成就和執行力。我認為部分原因是你們的服務業務佔比有所成長。我認為這無疑有助於穩定週期性波動。展望未來幾年業務復甦，我很好奇你如何看待系統和服務業務之間的結構調整？這會對你們的營收和利潤率產生哪些影響？另外，如果你願意的話，能否談談下一個每股盈餘高峰？

Well, here's why it's always a little difficult to answer this question is because we're certainly investing to grow our systems business tremendously as well. And so we don't look at it as one trading off versus the other. And so in fact, one kind of begets the other. The better our systems business does the faster our installed base grows, and that's really the story from 2019 in that -- until now, when we talk about how much the installed base has grown. We shipped a lot of new systems that grew that installed base by nearly 50%.

這個問題總是有點難回答，原因在於我們也大力投資發展系統業務。因此，我們並不認為這兩者之間有對立關係。事實上，兩者相輔相成。系統業務發展得越好，我們的用戶基數成長就越快。從2019年到現在，用戶基數的成長情況正是如此。我們交付了大量新系統，使用戶基數成長了近50%。

So going forward, I think that we anticipate the ratio of CSBG revenue to overall revenue staying kind of in the historical range that it's been. And that's just going to be driven by kind of equivalent on success in both parts. But the CSBG revenue, the installed base business, not only gives us stability, but it also opens new channels for growth for the company. And I've talked about this on previous calls, which is we -- I think that when we think about how Lam leverages, things like artificial intelligence and data. It's in the installed base services business.

因此，展望未來，我認為我們預期CSBG收入佔總收入的比例將維持在歷史水準。這主要取決於兩部分業務的均衡發展。 CSBG收入，也就是已安裝基礎業務，不僅為我們帶來了穩定性，也為公司開闢了新的成長管道。我在之前的電話會議上也談到過這一點，那就是——我認為，當我們思考Lam如何利用人工智慧和數據等技術時，它就體現在已安裝基礎服務業務中。

On the last call, I talked about even cobots, the use of collaborative robots to start to do some of the service that today is done by skilled engineers. Our customers in this industry have to find ways to be able to innovate faster and also provide manufacturing services at a lower cost. And I think that -- we can do that by innovating around the installed base and create new products and service offerings that help us grow at a faster pace than the installed base itself is growing.

上次電話會議上，我甚至談到了協作機器人，也就是利用協作機器人來承擔目前由熟練工程師完成的部分服務。我們這個行業的客戶必須找到方法，以更快的速度進行創新，並以更低的成本提供製造服務。我認為，我們可以透過圍繞現有客戶群進行創新，創造新的產品和服務，從而實現比現有客戶群本身成長更快的成長。

Got it. And then Doug, one clarification on the deferred revenue. I think it went up about $238 million this quarter. You talked about prepayments. Just curious, are customers still prepaying because of any supply constraints? Or is this an ongoing, I guess, trend that you're seeing? Just if you can talk about how we should think about deferred revenue going forward, that will be helpful.

明白了。 Doug，關於遞延收入，我還有一個問題需要澄清。我記得這季度遞延收入增加了約2.38億美元。你提到了預付款。我很好奇，客戶現在還在預付款是因為供應緊張嗎？還是說這是一種持續存在的趨勢？如果你能談談我們未來該如何看待遞延收入，那就太好了。

Yes, Srini. I guess what I described is you think about the advanced payment is when we have a new customer that we're just kind of understanding what their balance sheet looks like, especially if they're a private customer that we could see the balance sheet. It's not publicly reported. And the creditworthiness might be sort of questionable. We require cash upfront before we begin manufacturing the tool, and that's what's going on there. That's all it is.

是的，Srini。我剛才說的預付款是指，當我們有新客戶時，我們需要了解他們的資產負債表，特別是如果是私人客戶，我們才能看到他們的資產負債表。這些報表不會公開揭露，他們的信用狀況也可能有疑問。我們需要在開始生產工具之前收到預付款，這就是預付款的用途。僅此而已。

The next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

For the first one, around the China WFE being stable in calendar '24. Do you see all market segments being stable? Or do you see some like being stronger and some being weaker? Like how do you see that interplay?

第一個問題是關於2024年中國WFE市場是否保持穩定。您認為所有細分市場都會保持穩定嗎？還是有些細分市場會比較強，有些會比較弱？您如何看待這種相互作用？

Stacy, I don't really see a big change year-on-year relative to end market. I'll remind you, when China DRAM was second half weighted last year. It's probably a little bit first half weighted in China, maybe more than a little bit this year. But year-over-year, I don't think I really think about a significant change in contribution for the entire year.

Stacy，就終端市場而言，我認為同比變化不大。我提醒你一下，去年中國DRAM的銷售主要集中在下半年。今年可能上半年佔比略高，甚至可能更高。但就全年貢獻而言，我認為年比變化不大。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess a follow-up on the China questions, and maybe it's a follow-up on one of the earlier questions. But it does sound to me like you are suggesting China mix should come down through the year. Maybe you can clarify that because if I've got overall stable China revenues like how does your China mix come down materially? It doesn't look like you're looking for overall like non-China WFE to grow a ton, right, in some of the other areas. So...

明白了，這很有幫助。我想就中國相關的問題再問一個後續問題，或許也算是對之前某個問題的補充。但聽起來您似乎暗示中國業務佔比應該在今年有所下降。您能否解釋一下？因為如果中國整體收入保持穩定，那麼您的中國業務佔比又該如何大幅下降呢？看起來您並不希望非中國地區的WFE業務在其他一些領域實現大幅成長，對嗎？所以…

Yes. Let me remind you, in 2023, China was a more modest amount of WFE that grew in the second half of the year. And so the comments we're making are year-over-year, it's relatively stable. Kind of the half-on-half stuff probably looks different in '24 than it did in '23 in China specifically.

是的。我提醒一下，2023年中國WFE（勞動支出）佔比相對較低，且成長主要集中在下半年。因此，我們所做的評論都是基於同比數據，整體而言比較穩定。具體到2024年，中國的情況可能與2023年有所不同。

That's helpful. And so then exiting the year, you think you're back to that sort of normalized gross margin range as a result of that as China falls off in the second half?

那很有幫助。那麼到了年底，你認為隨著中國市場下半年成長放緩，毛利率會因此恢復到正常水準嗎？

Yes. The customer mix stuff, I think, mitigates some as we go through the year, and it continues to be quite strong in the March quarter guidance.

是的。我認為，隨著時間的推移，客戶結構的變化會在一定程度上緩解這個問題，而且在三月的季度業績預期中，這一因素仍然相當強勁。

The next question is from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的維韋克·阿亞。

For my first one, I'm curious, what's your assessment of NAND supply demand as it exists today? I think in your WFE view, you are assuming that NAND grows but more because of technology upgrades. But what are your customers telling you for as to when they want to start adding more tools? And what's Lam's opportunity to grow NAND right at a measurable pace in the second half of the year?

我的第一個問題是，您如何評估目前NAND快閃記憶體的供需狀況？我認為，從WFE（片上設備）的角度來看，您認為NAND快閃記憶體會成長，但主要是由於技術升級。但是，您的客戶告訴您，他們何時希望開始增加更多工具？ Lam公司在下半年實現NAND快閃記憶體業務可衡量成長的機會有多大？

Yes. I think that -- first of all, I wouldn't necessarily talk about what we are discussing with our customers on that standpoint. But things that are out there. We do know, and I think you know that the utilization cuts were pretty severe in NAND last year. And so there's a tremendous amount of capacity that is -- has been offline and we've said in the past that needs to be brought back online. And I think the question and the discussions we're having is that what technology node should that capacity be restarted. And in many cases, there is a very high likelihood that technology upgrade certainly will occur as that equipment is brought back into service.

是的。首先，我並不想就此主題談論我們與客戶討論的具體內容。但目前的情況是，我們知道，而且我想您也知道，去年NAND快閃記憶體的產能利用率下降得相當嚴重。因此，大量的產能處於離線狀態，我們之前也說過，這些產能需要重新上線。我認為我們正在討論的問題是，應該採用哪種技術節點來重啟這些產能。在很多情況下，隨著這些設備重新投入使用，技術升級幾乎是必然會發生的。

And so in that case, we would actually begin to see a restart of some of the utilization driven revenue that we get from things like spares and services, as well as, at the same time, a restart of technology upgrade revenues. And that's why I think that from a NAND perspective this year, we think that will effectively represent the majority of the spend that occurs in this segment.

因此，在這種情況下，我們實際上會看到一些基於設備利用率的收入（例如備件和服務收入）開始恢復，同時技術升級收入也會恢復。這就是為什麼我認為，從NAND快閃記憶體的角度來看，今年這部分收入將有效地佔據該領域支出的絕大部分。

Okay. And then, Tim, as many of the DRAM customers are saying that they plan to shift a bit more towards HBM from DDR. Does that have any positive or negative influence on your CSBG and the spares business?

好的。提姆，許多DRAM客戶都表示他們打算從DDR更多地轉向HBM。這會對你們的CSBG和備件業務產生正面還是負面的影響？

No, I don't -- I can't quite make that connection right now. I'll have to give it some thought. But clearly, we see an impact on our systems business, as I mentioned, where we're having to add the specific HBM related especially advanced packaging steps related to the stacking of HBM itself. And we're seeing significant growth in that area. But -- and so with that, given we're shipping additional systems, there is some incremental spares business and services business that goes along with that. But the systems portion of that kind outweighs from a dollars perspective.

不，我暫時還無法完全理解。我需要好好想想。但正如我之前提到的，這顯然對我們的系統業務產生了影響，因為我們需要增加一些與高密度玻爾茲曼晶片（HBM）相關的特殊高級封裝步驟，特別是與HBM堆疊相關的步驟。而且，我們看到這方面的業務正在顯著成長。因此，隨著我們系統出貨量的增加，備件業務和服務業務也會隨之成長。但從金額來看，系統業務的這部分業務仍佔據主導地位。

I guess maybe just to clarify, does your CSBG business start to kind of grow consistent with the growth in your tools business overall? Or do you think there is going to be a lag factor because it slowed down later? Does it start to regrow later also?

我想澄清一下，您的CSBG業務是否與整體工具業務的成長保持同步？或者您認為會存在滯後效應，因為它的成長速度後來放緩了？它之後是否也會開始復甦？

Depends on the rate of growth in WFE to be perfectly frank, Vivek CSBGspare service upgrades chug along, and we think that's going to benefit as utilization and whatnot begins to come back. Then to really answer your question, you got to go figure out what you think the pace of WFE growth is. I'm not going to put numbers on that right now. We're going to kind of wait and see.

坦白說，這取決於WFE的成長速度。 Vivek CSBGspare的服務升級正在穩步推進，我們認為隨著利用率等因素的恢復，這將從中受益。所以，要真正回答你的問題，你得先弄清楚你認為WFE的成長速度是多少。我現在不打算給出具體的數字。我們得拭目以待。

The next question is from Krish Sankar with CDT Cowen.

下一個問題來自 CDT Cowen 公司的 Krish Sankar。

First of all, for Doug. I think Doug has mentioned about a gradual recovery in WFE this year, kind of more back half weighted. So I'm kind of curious, and Doug, I'm not looking for like guidance. What I'm just wondering is, is this better assume Lam's revenues in the calendar second half of 2024 is going to be better than first half? That's for my first question and then I have a follow-up.

首先，我想問Doug一個問題。 Doug之前提到WFE今年會逐步復甦，而且復甦勢頭會更集中在下半年。所以我有點好奇，Doug，我不是想聽你的業績指引。我只是想知道，是不是應該假設Lam在2024年下半年的營收會比上半年好？這是我的第一個問題，之後我還有一個後續問題。

You're a little bit muffled, Krish, but I think you were asking about our performance along with WFE. And frankly, I think we will mirror whatever the trajectory of WFE looks like with an expectation that etch and dep outgrows to a certain extent. I think I answered your question, although you were a little bit muffled there.

克里什，你剛才說話有點含糊不清，但我認為你是在問我們和WFE的合作表現。坦白說，我認為我們會跟隨WFE的發展軌跡，同時我們也期待Etch and Dep在某種程度上能夠超越WFE。我想我已經回答了你的問題，雖然你剛才說話有點含糊不清。

Doug, I was just trying to wonder if calendar second half '24 revenue for Lam is going to be better than calendar first half similar to WFE?

Doug，我只是想問一下，Lam在2024年下半年的收入是否會像WFE一樣比上半年更好？

Yes, I think it will be, Krish, I'm not going to put numbers on it yet, but we will mirror what goes on with WFE.

是的，我認為會的，克里什，我現在還不會給出具體的數字，但我們會效仿 WFE 的做法。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up is for Tim and Doug. You spoke about HBM and AI and all the good stuff. I'm just wondering does HBM and DDR5, 2 sets for dep and etch differ from DDR4 and Legacy in a way, is it more like (inaudible) from a margin standpoint? Or does it -- is it like a mutual standpoint?

明白了，明白了，好的。接下來我想問Tim和Doug一些問題。你們談到了HBM、AI以及其他一些很棒的內容。我只是想知道HBM和DDR5（分別用於深度和刻錄）與DDR4和傳統記憶體有什麼不同？它們在記憶體容量方面是否更像（聽不清楚）？或者它們之間是否存在某種共通點？

I guess what I'd say, Krish, from a margin standpoint, you shouldn't think about any differential margin necessarily. The incremental piece for the stuff that goes in high-bandwidth memory is a bigger die, you know that. The die itself, building a DDR5 die is largely the same equipment that builds DDR5 that doesn't go into HBM. The incremental stuff comes when you go into the advanced packaging stuff, the Syndion deep silicon etch and the electroplating are areas where we are extraordinarily strong in addition to some other things. That is clearly incremental equipment.

克里什，我想說的是，從利潤率的角度來看，你不必非得考慮什麼差異利潤率。高頻寬記憶體的增量部分是更大的晶片，你知道的。製造DDR5晶片本身，基本上使用的設備和製造非HBM的DDR5晶片的設備相同。增量部分體現在先進封裝技術上，Syndion深矽蝕刻和電鍍是我們非常擅長的領域，此外還有其他一些優勢。這些顯然是增量設備。

Yes. And I think from an etch and dep intensity perspective, in general, I think you mentioned DDR5 to DD -- DDR4 to DDR5. I mean I think in general, with each technology node evolution, whether it's DRAM, NAND, Foundry Logic, we've said etch and dep intensity rises with technology advancement. And so I think you can imagine that there's more equipment being needed, and that's in addition to the fact that larger die sizes drive greater equipment per bit out. So there's a lot of factors that every time we move forward, there's more equipment and more Lam equipment required with those technology nodes.

是的。從蝕刻和沈積強度的角度來看，總的來說，正如您提到的DDR5到DDR4——DDR4到DDR5。我的意思是，我認為總體而言，隨著每個技術節點的演進，無論是DRAM、NAND還是晶圓代工邏輯，我們都說過蝕刻和沈積強度會隨著技術的進步而增加。因此，您可以想像，這需要更多的設備，而且更大的晶片尺寸也會導致每個位元需要更多的設備。所以有很多因素導致每次技術節點的推進都需要更多的設備和層壓加工設備。

The next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

If I can ask about your DRAM systems revenues in the December quarter. They were kind of back to the highs of a couple of years ago, but I know you had some China in there, I think there's some of the advance packaging. Can you just give us a sense for what's kind of core DRAM within that? And then you're pretty constructive on where that's going. Can you give us a sense of the dynamics of China going forward versus other regions and other parts of DRAM?

我想問一下貴公司12月季度的DRAM系統營收狀況。營收已經回升到幾年前的高位，我知道其中一部分來自中國市場，還有一些來自先進封裝技術。您能否簡要介紹一下DRAM的核心業務是什麼？您對DRAM的未來發展方向也頗有見解。您能否談談中國市場未來的發展動態，以及它與其他地區和DRAM其他業務板塊相比有何變化？

I guess, Joe, I would just to take you back to what I had in my script. Two things are driving the strength in DRAM in the December quarter, and you mentioned both of them, frankly. It's high bandwidth memory in DDR5. In addition to the fact that we've got a China customer in DRAM in the second half of the year. That includes September and December, that wasn't in the first half. So each of those things contribute to the strength you saw in December.

我想，喬，我還是回到剛才講的內容。推動12月季度DRAM強勁成長的因素有兩個，坦白說，你剛才也提到了這兩個因素。一個是DDR5高頻寬記憶體的需求。另一個因素是我們下半年在中國新增了一位DRAM客戶。這包括9月和12月，上半年還沒有。所以，這兩個因素都促成了12月份的強勁成長。

Okay. And then looking forward, it seemed like you had more than 6 months of demand from that China customer in the second half going forward. Does that come down, but core DRAM comes up and HBM comes up?

好的。展望未來，你們似乎在下半年有來自中國客戶超過六個月的需求。這種需求會下降，但核心DRAM和HBM的需求會上升嗎？

Probably.

大概。

The next question is from Brian Chin with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Brian Chin。

Maybe going back to NAND, the best ever quarter for NAND spending was probably higher than the total level of NAND spending maybe for all of last year. And so even if it's off a low base, isn't it pretty logical that NAND WFE should exhibit the largest or highest rate of improvement in '24?

或許回到NAND快閃記憶體領域，NAND快閃記憶體支出最高的季度可能比去年全年的總支出還要高。因此，即使基數較低，NAND快閃記憶體WFE在2024年展現最大或最高的成長速度不是合乎邏輯的嗎？

I wouldn't necessarily draw that conclusion, Brian. I think all we're going to tell you is that I think every segment WFE grows this year, NAND, DRAM, Foundry, Logic, it's all up to a certain extent. I'm not going to get into the business of quantifying each individual one because frankly, at the end of the day, we'll get it wrong. But I think everything will grow to a certain extent.

布萊恩，我不一定會得出同樣的結論。我想我們只能說，我認為今年WFE（晶圓廠前端）的各個細分市場都會成長，包括NAND快閃記憶體、DRAM、晶圓代工和邏輯電路，每個領域都會在一定程度上成長。我不會去具體量化每個領域的成長，因為坦白說，最終我們一定會預測錯誤。但我認為所有領域都會在某種程度上成長。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just to kind of level set and DRAM and then also looking forward. How much did DRAM industry spending actually declined in '23? It seems to be better than what was initially thought based on HBM, et cetera. And also, can you give us a sense of the number of wafer starts or percent of the DRAM installed base that could be converted to more advanced 1-alpha or 1-beta like process nodes this year?

好的，沒問題。那麼，為了平衡一下DRAM的狀況，也為了展望未來，2023年DRAM產業的支出實際上下降了多少？看起來比最初基於HBM等因素的預期要好。另外，您能否大致介紹一下今年可以轉換為更先進的1-alpha或1-beta等製程節點的晶圓開工數量或DRAM裝機量的百分比？

I guess, Brian, what I'd say and Tim, I think had this in his script, memory overall was down roughly 40%. NAND was down north of 70%. The differential to get to the number is DRAM. You can do that. And yes, I think the second part of your question, HBM and DDR5 has been a big part of the strength in DRAM.

我想，布萊恩，我和提姆（我認為提姆在他的稿子裡也提到了）都認為，整體記憶體銷售量下降了大約40%。 NAND快閃記憶體的銷量下降了超過70%。造成這種差異的原因在於DRAM。你可以解釋一下。是的，我認為你問題的第二部分，HBM和DDR5一直是DRAM強勁成長的重要因素。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And that was actually the second part was kind of more towards, what is the potential number of wafer starts or the percent of the installed base that's sort of game for those conversions to 1-alpha, 1-beta light nodes?

好的。實際上，第二部分更側重於晶圓啟動的潛在數量，或者說已安裝設備中有多少百分比的設備適合轉換為 1-alpha、1-beta 輕節點？

For the most part, in memory, everything gets upgraded to the next node, all of it. That's always been the case. It's not a new phenomenon.

大多數情況下，記憶體中的所有內容都會升級到下一個節點，全部都會升級。一直以來都是如此，這並不是什麼新現象。

The next question is from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

The question is on delivery times. And you had mentioned, obviously, your delivery times may be different than some others in the industry. Where do they sit right now? And as a consequence, how much visibility do your customers need to give you? And with that, when we start to see some stronger perhaps memory spending, how quickly will you be able to react to that and turn that for revenue?

問題在於交貨時間。您也提到過，貴公司的交貨時間可能與業內其他公司有所不同。目前貴公司的交貨時間處於什麼水準？因此，您的客戶需要向您提供多少交貨時間資訊？此外，當出現一些更強勁的消費趨勢（例如記憶消費）時，貴公司能夠以多快的速度做出反應並將其轉化為收入？

Yes. So we don't obviously publicly telegraph our lead times. But we had talked about the fact that during the COVID pandemic, our lead times due to supply chain shortages, it stretched out quite long. And those have now come back to a much more normalized level, although they still are such that for us to make shipments within this year, we would have to know about those orders and that forecast pretty quickly. The one thing that's helped is I talked about our investments in new manufacturing and supply chain operations within our customer ecosystems. That's putting us much closer, it's diversifying our supplier base and I think it's going to -- through this next upturn make us much more responsive to customer needs.

是的。所以我們當然不會公開透露交貨週期。但我們之前提到過，在新冠疫情期間，由於供應鏈短缺，我們的交貨週期被拉長了不少。現在交貨週期已經恢復到正常水平，但仍然需要我們盡快了解訂單情況並做出預測，以確保今年內完成發貨。其中一個有幫助的因素是，我之前提到過，我們對客戶生態系統內的新製造和供應鏈營運進行了投資。這讓我們更貼近客戶，也使我們的供應商基礎更加多元化，我相信，在接下來的經濟復甦中，這將使我們能夠更迅速地回應客戶需求。

So really, we worry less about lead time and more about our ability to respond in the time frame, which our customers need to place orders to meet their ramps. We tend not to be -- we tend not to be in the bottleneck, let's put it that way in terms of a lead time perspective, planning a new fab.

所以實際上，我們不太擔心交貨週期，更擔心的是我們能否在客戶需要的時間範圍內做出回應，以便他們能夠按時下單來滿足產能提升的需求。從交貨週期的角度來看，我們通常不會成為新工廠規劃的瓶頸。

Fair enough. As a follow-up question, I wanted to ask about backside power. And last quarter, you made some disclosures about the revenue impact to Lam as that happened. Could you give a little more color on that and specifically, we know that the different customers are having different implementations of backside power. At what point does that start to become a meaningful driver for Lam?

好的。我還有一個後續問題，想問關於後端電源的問題。上個季度，您揭露了一些關於後端電源對 Lam 營收影響的資訊。能否詳細說明一下？特別是，我們知道不同的客戶對後端電源的實現方式各不相同。那麼，後端電源在什麼情況下才會對 Lam 的營收產生顯著影響？

I think given the important role that both etch and deposition play in that and our strong position in parts of the backside power process like copper plating where some of those layers are becoming quite thick and therefore the processes become longer. It's -- I would say, going to very rapidly become quite meaningful for the company. And again, it's just a further demonstration of how going 3D and essentially using those -- using etch and deposition to create more complex architectures allows you to reduce power, improve chip performance and also reduce cost. And we talked about it in the sense of backside power. You're seeing the same thing with chip stacking and HBM and energy integration. And that's why I said, I think the next era of semiconductor is characterized by all of these more unique 3D architectures. They're all good for the types of products we sell.

我認為，鑑於蝕刻和沈積在其中扮演的重要角色，以及我們在背面功耗製程（例如銅電鍍）等環節的強大優勢（某些銅電鍍層厚度越來越大，因此製程時間也越來越長），這對公司而言將很快變得意義重大。這再次證明了採用 3D 技術，並利用蝕刻和沈積來創建更複雜的架構，可以降低功耗、提升晶片性能並降低成本。我們之前討論過背面功耗，晶片堆疊、HBM 和能量整合也體現了這一點。正因如此，我認為下一代半導體將以這些更獨特的 3D 架構為特徵。它們都非常適合我們銷售的產品類型。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

操作員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And that question comes from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

這個問題來自巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

I was curious if you guys had a view on the HBM market. Clearly, with the accelerator market growing as quickly as some think. There's concerns that the HBM market may actually be shipping above peak in '24 and '25. Do you guys have a view internally on just how fast HBM is growing as a market segment? And just -- could you just give us the perspective of when you look at an acceleration of a tool road map with a customer on HBM. How much of that has pulled in, in the last 6 months from what you would typically see from a DRAM customer when they're looking for a tool?

我想請教各位對HBM市場有何看法。顯然，加速器市場成長速度之快，正如一些人所預期的那樣。有人擔心HBM市場在2024年和2025年的出貨量可能會超過高峰。你們內部對HBM作為細分市場的成長速度有何看法？另外，能否請你們談談在與客戶探討HBM工具路線圖時，你們是如何看待加速工具路線圖的？在過去六個月裡，你們從DRAM客戶那裡了解到的HBM工具需求，與以往相比，有多少成長？

Well, I think that as a real key supplier into the HBM market, as I mentioned, the strong position we have in the processes required before the stacking, this is an area where we're seeing very, very strong demand. I think that whether or not at some point, it's shipping above peak, I think that this AI market is continuing to evolve at a very, very fast rate. And all we're focused on right now is ensuring we are building out our own capacity and capabilities. And ensuring that we maintain that technology leadership that's allowing us to hold 100% market share of the TSV formation in HBM. And so really, that's our focus is hold the position and let the market grow as fast as the market grows.

嗯，我認為，作為HBM市場真正的關鍵供應商，正如我之前提到的，我們在堆疊前工藝方面擁有強大的優勢，而這正是我們看到需求非常強勁的領域。我認為，無論最終出貨量是否會超過峰值，人工智慧市場都將以極快的速度持續發展。我們目前專注於確保自身產能和能力的提升，並確保保持技術領先地位，從而在HBM的TSV成型領域佔據100%的市場份額。因此，我們的重點是維持市場地位，並讓市場隨著自身發展而快速成長。

Helpful. And then just one on the makeup of inventory. You guys have talked about working down inventory throughout the year. Is there any color you can give us on the makeup of that inventory? Is it more memory related or foundry logic related? I know you don't want to give specifics, but just where do you see that inventory coming down through the first half of the calendar year?

很有幫助。還有一個關於庫存構成的問題。你們之前說過要全年逐步減少庫存。能否具體說明庫存構成？是記憶體相關產品比較多，還是晶片代工邏輯比較多？我知道你們不想透露具體細節，但你們預計今年上半年庫存會如何減少？

Yes, Tom, it's -- the rate of decline in memory as we went into '23 was pretty dramatic, and we ended up taking more inventory than we needed specifically for memory. So there's a bigger component of it targeted at memory and as memory recovers, the inventory will come down. Thanks for the question.

是的，湯姆，確實如此——進入2023年後，記憶力下降的速度非常驚人，我們最終清點的庫存比實際需要的還要多，尤其是針對記憶力方面的。所以，目前針對記憶力的庫存佔比很大一部分，隨著記憶力的恢復，庫存量也會減少。謝謝你的提問。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

問答環節到此結束，會議也已閉幕。感謝您參加今天的演講。您可以斷開連線了。