科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2023 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加泛林研究公司 2023 年 12 月季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ram Ganesh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Ram Ganesh。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and CEO; and Doug Bettinger, Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加泛林研究季度財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer；執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the December 2023 quarter and our outlook for the March 2024 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The release can also be found on the IR section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享商業環境的概述，並將回顧 2023 年 12 月季度的財務業績和 2024 年 3 月季度的前景。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於下午 1:00 後發布。太平洋時間。新聞稿以及今天電話會議附帶的簡報幻燈片也可以在該公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們 SEC 公開文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中隨附的幻燈片以了解更多資訊。除非另有說明，今天對我們財務表現的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整可以在簡報中的隨附幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website.

該電話預計持續至下午 3:00。太平洋時間。今天下午晚些時候，我們的網站將提供此次電話會議的重播。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

然後，我會將電話轉交給提姆。

Thank you, Ram, and welcome, everyone. Lam delivered strong performance in the December quarter. Revenues, gross margin, operating margin and EPS all above the midpoint of our guided ranges. Our results for December closed out a calendar year 2023, in which Lam executed well amid a decline in overall wafer fabrication equipment spending. Compared to the prior year cycle trough in calendar 2019, we achieved a near doubling of EPS.

謝謝拉姆，歡迎大家。 Lam 在 12 月季度表現強勁。收入、毛利率、營業利潤率和每股盈餘均高於我們指引範圍的中點。我們 12 月的業績結束了 2023 年，林在整體晶圓製造設備支出下降的情況下表現良好。與 2019 年的上一年周期低谷相比，我們的每股盈餘幾乎翻了一番。

There are a few reasons why Lam has evolved stronger cycle to cycle. First, we have improved our positioning in the foundry, logic and specialty technology segments through sustained investments in innovation and new products. As a result, we have grown our total non-memory revenue share, and we continue to gain momentum at key technology inflections. Second, we have delivered tremendous growth in our customer support business group. Lam ended calendar 2023 with approximately 90,000 chambers in the field, an installed base almost 50% larger than in the previous cycle. CSBG revenue has grown by more than 80% from 2019 levels. And finally, we have further improved our ability to manage costs and drive operational efficiency through cycles, delivering operating margins in 2023 that were nearly 2.5 points higher than the prior trough.

Lam 不斷進化出更強大的循環有幾個原因。首先，透過對創新和新產品的持續投資，我們提高了在代工、邏輯和專業技術領域的定位。因此，我們的非記憶體總收入份額有所增加，並且我們繼續在關鍵技術變化方面獲得動力。其次，我們的客戶支援業務部門取得了巨大的成長。截至 2023 年，Lam 現場約有 90,000 個暗室，安裝基數比上一周期增加了近 50%。 CSBG營收較2019年成長超過80%。最後，我們進一步提高了管理成本和提高整個週期營運效率的能力，2023 年的營運利潤率比之前的低谷高出近 2.5 個百分點。

Turning to WFE. We estimate that 2023 spending ended in the low $80 billion range. This is up slightly from our prior view, driven by continued strength in domestic China spending predominantly in equipment segments where we do not participate.

轉向WFE。我們估計 2023 年支出將在 800 億美元左右。這比我們先前的觀點略有上升，這是由於中國國內支出持續強勁，主要是在我們不參與的設備領域。

Overall, memory WFE was down nearly 40% year-on-year, led by cuts in NAND spending of more than 75%. Non-memory WFE decreased in the mid-single digits range with mature node growth in China, partially offsetting declines in leading-edge node spending in the rest of the world.

總體而言，記憶體 WFE 年比下降近 40%，其中 NAND 支出削減超過 75%。隨著中國成熟節點的成長，非記憶體 WFE 出現中個位數下降，部分抵消了世界其他地區領先節點支出的下降。

As we enter 2024, the business environment remains muted. However, we expect a modest recovery in memory spending to drive a stronger exit to the year. Our early view of WFE spending for calendar 2024 is in the mid- to high $80 billion range. Growth in DRAM will be driven by capacity additions for high-bandwidth memory as well as node conversions. NAND spending increases will largely come from technology upgrades. We see foundry logic spend growing in 2024 with higher leading-edge investment, offset in part by declines in mature node investment outside of China. Overall, we believe domestic China spending will be stable in 2024.

進入 2024 年，商業環境依然低迷。然而，我們預計記憶體支出的溫和復甦將推動今年的退出。我們對 2024 年 WFE 支出的初步預測是在 800 億美元的中高端範圍內。 DRAM 的成長將受到高頻寬記憶體容量增加以及節點轉換的推動。 NAND支出的成長將主要來自技術升級。我們預計 2024 年代工邏輯支出將成長，前沿投資將增加，但部分被中國以外成熟節點投資的下降所抵消。整體而言，我們認為 2024 年中國國內支出將保持穩定。

Longer term, the setup for WFE investment is robust. With semiconductor revenues widely expected to reach $1 trillion around the end of the decade and device manufacturing complexity continuing to rise, we believe WFE spending will need to roughly double from today's levels. Lam's served markets of etch and deposition should outpace growth in WFE overall. For this reason, we have been executing a series of strategic actions to best position the company for the growth opportunity ahead. Importantly, we have remained committed to these initiatives despite the challenging spending environment over the past several quarters.

從長遠來看，WFE 投資的環境是穩健的。人們普遍預計半導體收入將在本世紀末達到 1 兆美元，並且設備製造複雜性持續上升，我們認為 WFE 支出將需要在當今水準的基礎上增加約一倍。 Lam 所服務的蝕刻和沈積市場的整體成長速度應該會超過 WFE 的成長速度。因此，我們一直在執行一系列策略行動，以使公司為未來的成長機會做好最佳定位。重要的是，儘管過去幾季的支出環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍然致力於這些措施。

First is our commitment to R&D, including planned spending increases in calendar year 2024 to extend our differentiation in products and services targeted at next-generation semiconductor device inflections. This next era in semiconductors will be defined by the broad move towards 3D architectures and advanced packaging to solve scaling challenges. We believe this will, in turn, drive an increase in etch and deposition intensity over the long term. Our focus is on multiple billion dollar SAM expansion opportunities across memory and foundry logic.

首先是我們對研發的承諾，包括計劃在 2024 年增加支出，以擴大我們針對下一代半導體裝置變化的產品和服務的差異化。半導體的下一個時代將透過向 3D 架構和先進封裝的廣泛發展來定義，以解決擴展挑戰。我們相信，從長遠來看，這將反過來推動蝕刻和沈積強度的增加。我們的重點是跨記憶體和代工邏輯的價值數十億美元的 SAM 擴展機會。

We have profiled our advances in gate-all-around, backside power delivery, advanced packaging and dry EUV patterning over the past several quarters, and our solutions are continuing to gain traction with customers. In the December quarter, we secured additional advanced packaging wins for high-bandwidth memory, which is critical for enabling advanced AI servers.

過去幾個季度，我們介紹了我們在環柵、背面供電、先進封裝和乾式 EUV 圖案化方面的進步，並且我們的解決方案繼續受到客戶的青睞。在 12 月季度，我們獲得了更多高頻寬記憶體的先進封裝勝利，這對於實現先進的人工智慧伺服器至關重要。

Our SABRE 3D tools, best-in-class plating uniformity along with our ability to demonstrate an overall cost of ownership advantage made Lam the clear choice over a large competitor. In 2024, we expect our HBM related DRAM and packaging shipments to more than triple year-on-year and outpace WFE growth in this segment by a significant margin.

我們的 SABRE 3D 工具、一流的電鍍均勻性以及我們展示整體擁有成本優勢的能力，使 Lam 成為相對於大型競爭對手的明確選擇。到 2024 年，我們預計 HBM 相關 DRAM 和封裝出貨量將年增三倍以上，並大幅超過該領域的 WFE 成長。

The specialty technology markets are also yielding a diverse set of new opportunities for Lam. For instance, we have recently delivered pulse laser deposition technology to customers targeting high-volume manufacturing of MEMS and next-generation high-frequency devices. We accelerated our entry into this market by integrating technology we obtained via small acquisition onto a production-proven Lam platform. Compared to competing deposition methods, Lam solution enables more highly doped scandium aluminum nitride films, which delivered the piezoelectric performance and cost our customers require.

專業技術市場也為 Lam 帶來了一系列多樣化的新機會。例如，我們最近向致力於大批量製造 MEMS 和下一代高頻設備的客戶提供脈衝雷射沉積技術。我們將透過小型收購獲得的技術整合到經過生產驗證的 Lam 平台上，加速了進入這一市場的速度。與競爭性沉積方法相比，泛林解決方案可實現更高摻雜度的氮化鋁鈧薄膜，從而滿足客戶所需的壓電性能和成本。

The second area of focus for Lam has been our investment in facilities close to our customers. By establishing process development capabilities near our customers' R&D fabs, we are maximizing collaboration and accelerating time to solutions. We have also made progress ramping supply chain and manufacturing operations within our customer ecosystems. These in-region capabilities enhance our responsiveness and resilience for customers and create significant economic value for Lam as we leverage the benefits of global flexibility. Our new manufacturing facility in Malaysia is poised to fully scale in the coming WFE upturn, providing us the capability to nearly triple the percentage revenue contribution from our lower cost manufacturing locations versus a few years ago.

Lam 關注的第二個領域是我們對靠近客戶的設施的投資。透過在客戶的研發工廠附近建立製程開發能力，我們正在最大限度地提高協作並加快解決方案的速度。我們在客戶生態系統內的供應鏈和製造業務方面也取得了進展。這些區域內能力增強了我們對客戶的回應能力和彈性，並在我們利用全球靈活性的優勢時為 Lam 創造了巨大的經濟價值。我們在馬來西亞的新製造工廠準備在即將到來的 WFE 復甦中全面擴大規模，使我們能夠將成本較低的製造工廠的收入貢獻百分比比幾年前提高近三倍。

And finally, Lam is concentrated on reengineering our business processing systems to drive operational excellence at greater scale. Investments in digital capabilities like virtual twinning, advanced simulation and AI are helping us to accelerate problem solving, and we are building equipment intelligence capabilities and in-fab service automation into our most advanced product road maps.

最後，林專注於重新設計我們的業務處理系統，以更大規模地推動卓越營運。對虛擬孿生、高階模擬和人工智慧等數位能力的投資正在幫助我們加速解決問題，我們正在將設備智慧能力和工廠內服務自動化建置到我們最先進的產品路線圖中。

As we complete our reengineering efforts, we are also intent on achieving organizational agility. In this regard, we are announcing a small workforce reduction predominantly at the executive level to align our resources with our execution priorities and drive efficiency and speed of decision-making.

在完成重組工作的同時，我們也致力於實現組織敏捷性。在這方面，我們宣布主要在高階主管層級進行小規模裁員，以使我們的資源與執行優先事項保持一致，並提高決策的效率和速度。

In calendar 2023, Lam delivered solid results while investing to build strong capabilities for the future. Looking forward, I am confident that our strategic global infrastructure and differentiated technology portfolio provide Lam with the tools we need to capitalize on the robust semiconductor growth expected in the years ahead.

2023 年，林先生取得了紮實的業績，同時進行了投資，為未來打造強大的能力。展望未來，我相信我們的策略性全球基礎設施和差異化技術組合為 Lam 提供了我們利用未來幾年預計強勁的半導體成長所需的工具。

Thank you, and now here is Doug.

謝謝，現在是道格。

Great. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a busy earnings season. We delivered strong financial results in calendar year 2023. Our revenue came in at $14.3 billion and diluted earnings per share at $27.33. We're pleased with the company's execution during the year where the memory WFE mix reached historic lows.

偉大的。謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝您今天在繁忙的財報季節參加我們的電話會議。我們在 2023 日曆年取得了強勁的財務業績。我們的營收為 143 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 27.33 美元。我們對該公司在這一年的執行情況感到滿意，內存 WFE 組合達到了歷史最低點。

Let's look at the details of our December quarter results. Revenue for the December quarter was $3.76 billion, which was up 8% from the prior quarter and down 29% from a year ago. Our deferred revenue balance at the end of the quarter was $1.93 billion, which was an increase of $238 million from the September quarter, which was mainly tied to growth in customer advanced payments. We continue to have a higher deferred revenue balance versus historic levels given these customer advanced payments.

讓我們來看看 12 月份季度業績的詳細資訊。 12 月季度的營收為 37.6 億美元，季增 8%，年減 29%。本季末我們的遞延收入餘額為 19.3 億美元，比 9 月季度增加了 2.38 億美元，主要與客戶預付款的成長有關。鑑於這些客戶預付款，我們的遞延收入餘額仍高於歷史水準。

From a segment perspective, December quarter, systems revenue in memory was 48%, which is an increase from the prior quarter level of 38%. The growth in the memory segment was led by DRAM, which was at record levels on a dollar basis, coming in at 31% of systems revenue compared with 23% in the September quarter. DRAM is benefiting from growth in high-bandwidth memory capacity and the move to DDR5, which is needed to address AI-related workloads, and it's also benefiting from shipments to China.

從細分市場來看，12月份季度，系統記憶體營收佔比為48%，較上一季38%的水準有所成長。記憶體領域的成長由 DRAM 帶動，以美元計算，DRAM 處於創紀錄的水平，佔系統收入的 31%，而 9 月季度的這一比例為 23%。 DRAM 受益於高頻寬記憶體容量的成長以及向 DDR5 的轉變（這是解決人工智慧相關工作負載所需的），也受益於對中國的出貨量。

As we've noted in prior quarters, nonvolatile memory WFE was at historic lows on a mix basis in 2023. For the December quarter, this segment represented 17% of our systems revenue, which was up a little bit from 15% in the prior quarter. The slight growth was predominantly related to investments in certain technology projects. NAND customers have aggressively reduced capacity throughout the year to bring inventory levels down.

As we've noted in prior quarters, nonvolatile memory WFE was at historic lows on a mix basis in 2023. For the December quarter, this segment represented 17% of our systems revenue, which was up a little bit from 15% in the prior四分之一.略有成長主要與某些技術項目的投資有關。 NAND 客戶全年大幅削減產能，以降低庫存水準。

The Foundry segment represented 38% of our systems revenue, a little higher than the percentage concentration in the September quarter of 36%. Growth was driven by new fab shipments in various regions across several process nodes. The Logic and Other segment was 14% of our systems revenue in the December quarter, which was down from the prior quarter level of 26%. The decline was driven by general mature node softness as well as the timing of customer projects. Overall, in the Foundry and Logic segment, we performed well, delivering on the share gains that we've previously been discussing with you.

代工部門占我們系統收入的 38%，略高於 9 月季度 36% 的百分比集中度。成長是由跨多個製程節點的各個地區的新晶圓廠出貨量所推動的。邏輯和其他部門占我們 12 月季度系統收入的 14%，低於上一季 26% 的水平。下降的原因是成熟節點普遍疲軟以及客戶專案的時機。總體而言，在代工和邏輯領域，我們表現良好，實現了我們之前與您討論過的份額收益。

Now I'll discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at 40%, which was down from 48% in the prior quarter. Most of our China revenue in the last 2 quarters was from domestic Chinese customers, and we expect spending from this region to be stable overall in 2024. China as a percent of our revenue is expected to stay relatively high in the March quarter, but it likely trend lower as the year progresses. Our next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 19% of revenue in the December quarter versus 16% in the September quarter. And finally, Japan and Taiwan rounded out the remaining of our top 4 regions.

現在我將討論我們總收入的區域組成。中國地區的佔比為 40%，低於上一季的 48%。過去兩個季度我們的大部分中國收入來自中國國內客戶，我們預計該地區的支出在 2024 年將總體穩定。中國占我們收入的百分比預計在 3 月份季度保持相對較高的水平，但隨著時間的推移，可能會呈現下降趨勢。我們第二大的地域集中地是韓國，佔 12 月季度營收的 19%，而 9 月季度的營收佔 16%。最後，日本和台灣躋身剩下的前 4 個地區之列。

The customer support business group generated revenue in the December quarter of nearly $1.5 billion, up 2% from the September quarter and 16% lower than the December quarter in calendar year 2022. Overall, the business was steady, and we continue to see our memory customers operating the fabs at very low utilization rates.

客戶支援業務集團在 2022 年 12 月季度的營收接近 15 億美元，比 9 月季度成長 2%，比 2022 年 12 月季度下降 16%。總體而言，業務穩定，我們繼續看到我們的記憶客戶以非常低的利用率運作晶圓廠。

Given the strength of the installed base units, we have a strong foundation for growth with technology conversions and utilization rates resume growing. Spares followed by the Reliant product line continue to be the 2 largest components of CSBG.

鑑於已安裝基礎單位的實力，隨著技術轉換和利用率的恢復成長，我們擁有堅實的成長基礎。備件和 Reliant 產品線仍然是 CSBG 的兩大組成部分。

Turning to the gross margin performance. The December quarter came in at 47.6%, which is above the midpoint of guidance and generally in line with the September quarter level, which was 47.9%. We've improved elements of our cost structure during the year and delivered on our commitment to improve gross margin from the 2023 March quarter level by approximately 1 percentage point as we exited calendar year 2023 from those operational improvements. December quarter operating expenses were $662 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $622 million. R&D as a percent of spending was higher versus the September quarter, coming in at over 69% of total expenses.

轉向毛利率表現。 12 月季度的成長率為 47.6%，高於指引值的中點，與 9 月季度的水準（47.9%）基本一致。我們在這一年中改進了成本結構的各個要素，並兌現了我們的承諾，即在 2023 日曆年結束這些營運改善後，將毛利率從 2023 年 3 月的季度水準提高約 1 個百分點。 12 月季度營運支出為 6.62 億美元，高於上一季的 6.22 億美元。研發佔支出的百分比高於 9 月季度的水平，佔總支出的 69% 以上。

The increased spending reflects our ongoing focus on extending our product and technology differentiation across those critical inflections that Tim mentioned earlier. We will continue to grow investments across multiple market segments to support the long-term strategic objectives for ongoing company outperformance.

支出的增加反映出我們持續致力於在蒂姆之前提到的那些關鍵變化中擴大我們的產品和技術差異化。我們將持續增加跨多個細分市場的投資，以支持公司持續取得優異績效的長期策略目標。

Operating margin for the current quarter was 30%, in line with September quarter level of 30.1% and above the midpoint of our guidance primarily because of a stronger gross margin performance.

本季的營業利潤率為 30%，與 9 月季度 30.1% 的水平一致，並且高於我們指導的中點，這主要是因為毛利率表現強勁。

Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 12.3%, generally in line with expectations. Looking into calendar 2024, we believe the tax rate will be in the low to mid-teens with the normal fluctuations quarter-by-quarter. Other income expense for the December quarter came in at $5 million in income compared with $7 million in income in the September quarter. The slight fluctuation in OI&E was mainly due to variations in exchange rates. OI&E will continue to be subject to market-related fluctuations that could cause some level of volatility each quarter.

我們本季的非 GAAP 稅率為 12.3%，整體符合預期。展望 2024 年，我們認為稅率將在 15% 左右，並按季度正常波動。 12 月份季度的其他收入支出為 500 萬美元，而 9 月份季度的其他收入支出為 700 萬美元。 OI&E小幅波動主要是受匯率變動影響。 OI&E 將繼續受到市場相關波動的影響，這可能會導致每季出現一定程度的波動。

On the capital return side, we allocated approximately $640 million to open market share repurchases, and we paid $264 million in dividends in the December quarter. For the 2023 calendar year, we returned 79% of our free cash flow, totaling $3.8 billion, which was largely consistent with our long-term capital return plans of 75% to 100%. December quarter diluted earnings per share was $7.52 over the midpoint of our guidance. Diluted share count rounded down to 132 million shares on track with our expectations and down from the September quarter.

在資本回報方面，我們分配了約 6.4 億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在 12 月季度支付了 2.64 億美元的股息。 2023 年，我們返還了 79% 的自由現金流，總計 38 億美元，這與我們 75% 至 100% 的長期資本回報計劃基本一致。 12 月季度攤薄每股收益為 7.52 美元，高於我們指引的中位數。稀釋後股票數量四捨五入至 1.32 億股，符合我們的預期，且較 9 月季度有所下降。

During 2023, we repurchased nearly 5 million shares through our share buyback program. And I would just mention, we have $2.1 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

2023年，我們透過股票回購計畫回購了近500萬股股票。我只想提一下，我們董事會授權的股票回購計畫還剩 21 億美元。

Let me turn to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the December quarter totaled $5.6 billion, up from $5.2 billion in the September quarter. The increase was largely due to collections, offset by cash allocated to share repurchases, dividend payments and capital expenditures. Overall, 2023 was a record year for cash flows from operations coming in at $5.3 billion. Days sales outstanding was 66 days in the December quarter, which was a decrease from 73 days in the September quarter. As a result of our operational focus and execution, I'm pleased to report that inventory turns improved to 1.8x from the prior quarter level of 1.5x. We will continue to work on bringing inventory down throughout calendar 2024.

讓我談談資產負債表。截至 12 月季末，我們的現金和短期投資總額為 56 億美元，高於 9 月季度的 52 億美元。增加的主要原因是收款，但被分配給股票回購、股利支付和資本支出的現金所抵銷。整體而言，2023 年營運現金流創歷史新高，達 53 億美元。 12 月季度的應收帳款天數為 66 天，比 9 月季度的 73 天有所減少。由於我們的營運重點和執行力，我很高興地報告庫存週轉率從上一季的 1.5 倍提高到 1.8 倍。我們將在 2024 年繼續努力降低庫存。

Our noncash expenses for the December quarter included approximately $70 million for equity compensation, $78 million for depreciation and $13 million for amortization. Capital expenditures for the December quarter were $115 million, up $38 million from the September quarter.

我們 12 月季度的非現金支出包括約 7,000 萬美元的股權補償、7,800 萬美元的折舊和 1,300 萬美元的攤提。 12 月季度的資本支出為 1.15 億美元，比 9 月季度增加 3,800 萬美元。

Spending was primarily centered on product development activities and lab expansions in the United States and Asia, supporting our global lab investment strategy. We ended the -- excuse me, the December quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was flat with the prior quarter.

支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的產品開發活動和實驗室擴建，支持我們的全球實驗室投資策略。對不起，我們在 12 月季度結束時擁有大約 17,200 名正式全職員工，與上一季持平。

Let's now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the March 2024 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 48%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This gross margin guidance is reflected -- reflective of continued favorable customer mix. I do expect this favorable mix to mitigate somewhat as the year progresses. Operating margins of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. I would again highlight that the March 2024 quarter will have higher spending as it includes an extra week in the quarter, which occurs every several years. It's a 14-week quarter. And I will also remind you we will be growing R&D spending this year.

現在讓我們來看看 2024 年 3 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。我們預計營收為 37 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元。毛利率48%，上下浮動1個百分點。這項毛利率指引得到了反映—反映了持續有利的客戶組合。我確實預計隨著時間的推移，這種有利的組合會有所緩解。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。我想再次強調，2024 年 3 月季度的支出將會更高，因為該季度會多出一周，而這種情況每隔幾年就會發生一次。這是一個為期 14 週的季度。我還要提醒大家，今年我們將增加研發支出。

And finally, we're expecting earnings per share of $7.25, plus or minus $0.75 based on a share count of approximately 132 million shares. We continue to be focused on improving our business operations to optimize efficiency and effectiveness as WFE growth occurs. Our profitability metrics reflect the progress we made during calendar year 2023, with business realignment and transformational activities well underway. We'll see these activities continue in the first half of calendar year 2024. Including the cost incurred for these improvement activities and headcount reductions that we saw in calendar 2023, I now expect we'll spend in total $300 million for these actions, which will continue to be reported in our non-GAAP adjustments.

最後，我們預計每股收益為 7.25 美元，根據約 1.32 億股的股數計算，上下浮動 0.75 美元。隨著 WFE 的成長，我們將繼續專注於改善業務運營，以優化效率和效益。我們的獲利指標反映了我們在 2023 年的進展，業務調整和轉型活動正在順利進行。我們將看到這些活動在 2024 年上半年繼續進行。包括這些改進活動所產生的成本以及我們在 2023 年看到的人員削減，我現在預計我們將在這些行動上總共花費 3 億美元，其中將繼續在我們的非公認會計原則調整中報告。

I had previously told you we would spend $250 million over 12 months. It's now $50 million higher and 6 months longer.

我之前曾告訴過您，我們將在 12 個月內花費 2.5 億美元。現在增加了 5000 萬美元，時間延長了 6 個月。

So let me conclude. Over many semiconductor cycles, Lam has established a proven track record of successfully managing our business. With the actions we've taken over the course of the last several quarters, we expect to strengthen our operations and technology leadership and further enhance our profitability profile. When revenue scales into the next upturn, Lam will be stronger, better positioned and more efficient.

讓我總結一下。在許多半導體週期中，林先生在成功管理我們的業務方面建立了良好的記錄。透過過去幾季我們採取的行動，我們預計將加強我們的營運和技術領先地位，並進一步提高我們的獲利能力。當收入規模進入下一次好轉時，林將變得更強大、定位更佳、更有效率。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們準備好的發言到此結束。提姆和我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Tim Arcuri from UBS.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂姆·阿庫裡（Tim Arcuri）。

I guess my first question for you, Tim, is I wondered if you could sort of translate. Obviously, you heard your big litho peer that reported today that had these huge orders and it looks like a couple of billion dollars in EUV orders for DRAM. So that sort of translates to an extra $9 billion to $10 billion, something like that. So it seems mostly for shipments during this year and even into next year for them. So like maybe you haven't seen that yet. But can you talk about what that tells you about the future of that segment? And I know you think it's going to be up, but it seems like it could be up a lot. And maybe any change in the planning outlook or the discussions that you're having with your DRAM customers?

我想我問你的第一個問題是，提姆，我想知道你是否可以翻譯一下。顯然，您聽說您的大型光刻同行今天報告擁有這些巨額訂單，看起來有數十億美元的 DRAM EUV 訂單。所以這意味著額外的 90 億到 100 億美元，類似的東西。因此，他們的出貨量似乎主要是今年甚至明年。所以也許你還沒看過。但您能談談這對您該細分市場的未來有何影響嗎？我知道你認為它會上漲，但看起來可能會上漲很多。也許您與 DRAM 客戶的規劃前景或討論有任何變化？

Sure. Thanks, Tim. And obviously, WFE is a tricky thing to forecast because generally, we have a very good view of certain segments of the market. And we try to give an overall view of WFE, and we do that based on listening to peers, talking to customers and making our own assessments. Yes, sometimes we get it wrong. And I guess we're always in a period of adjusting that. I think though -- I didn't -- I don't think there's anything out there that is completely inconsistent with what we've said. We've said WFE is up this year, modestly recovering because of memory. It's -- we'd see a stronger exit to the year. And I think to the magnitude, I think we're just going to keep watching it and having those conversations with customers.

當然。謝謝，蒂姆。顯然，WFE 的預測是一件棘手的事情，因為一般來說，我們對市場的某些部分有很好的了解。我們試著對 WFE 給予一個整體看法，我們這樣做的基礎是傾聽同儕的意見、與客戶交談並做出我們自己的評估。是的，有時我們會弄錯。我想我們總是處於調整時期。但我認為——我沒有——我認為沒有任何東西與我們所說的完全不一致。我們已經說過，WFE 今年有所上升，由於記憶的緣故，略有恢復。我們會看到今年的退出更加強勁。我認為就其規模而言，我們將繼續關注並與客戶進行對話。

In this period, lead times of equipment and the framework in which certain pieces of equipment need to be ordered and brought into fabs can differ equipment supplier to equipment supplier, and maybe there's something at play there. But I think it probably further reinforces our bullishness that memory has been at a historically low mix of WFE. We said that memory spending across both DRAM and NAND. We felt was at unsustainable levels. We said that on pretty much every call last year.

在此期間，設備的交貨時間以及需要訂購某些設備並將其帶入晶圓廠的框架可能會因設備供應商的不同而有所不同，也許其中有一些因素在起作用。但我認為這可能進一步強化了我們的樂觀情緒，即記憶體的 WFE 組合一直處於歷史低點。我們說過記憶體支出橫跨 DRAM 和 NAND。我們認為處於不可持續的水平。去年我們幾乎在每次通話時都這麼說。

And -- so I think that it's not a surprise that, that eventually corrects itself. What I would point out is that we don't spend a tremendous amount of time trying to get the timing exactly right. In my script, I talked a lot about strategic actions, which play out over years and, in fact, catch the DRAM inflections that are coming now. The strength we have in high-bandwidth memory, the positions we have in applications in DDR5 and beyond. Those were established by us seeing DRAM opportunities years ago. And I think we're continuing to report more and more growth in that segment. And I think we'll just continue to do that. So we tend to take a long-term view of technology and spending patterns.

而且——所以我認為這最終會自我糾正，這並不奇怪。我要指出的是，我們不會花很多時間嘗試準確掌握時機。在我的劇本中，我談到了很多關於策略行動的內容，這些行動多年來一直在發揮作用，事實上，它們抓住了現在即將到來的 DRAM 變化。我們在高頻寬記憶體方面的優勢，以及我們在 DDR5 及其他應用領域的地位。這些是我們多年前看到 DRAM 機會而建立的。我認為我們將繼續報告該領域越來越多的成長。我想我們會繼續這樣做。因此，我們傾向於以長遠的眼光來看待技術和支出模式。

And Tim, it's Doug. I'll just remind you something that I know you know very well that with those lead times are generally much longer than ours are in etch and deposition. And you never buy litho without eventually buying the process equipment that goes along with it. So if they're seeing something, we will see it, too.

提姆，是道格。我只是提醒您一些事情，我知道您非常清楚，這些交貨時間通常比我們的蝕刻和沈積時間長得多。如果沒有最終購買與之配套的工藝設備，您就永遠不會購買光刻。因此，如果他們看到了什麼，我們也會看到。

Totally, Doug. Yes, for sure. So I guess for you, Doug, super quick. So there's kind of a lot of moving parts, I know going on in gross margin. I know that the mix is helping you. And I know you're probably getting some tailwinds from some cost relief and things like that. So what's the right normalized margin? I know maybe 48% is not the right normalized number, but is it like is the mix helping you by 50 basis points, and that's what sort of goes away. Can you sort of help us there?

完全正確，道格。是肯定的。所以我想對你來說，道格，速度非常快。因此，我知道毛利率方面存在著許多變化。我知道混合對你有幫助。我知道你可能會從一些成本減免之類的事情中得到一些好處。那麼正確的標準化餘裕是多少？我知道也許 48% 不是正確的標準化數字，但它是否可以幫助你提高 50 個基點，而這就是消失的情況。你能幫我們一下嗎？

Yes. Tim, I'll remind you what I said last quarter call too, still kind of the same thing. The customer mix is benefiting us again in the March quarter guide, maybe even a little bit more than it did last quarter. I took you back to that June quarter of last year before we had such a favorable geographic mix and that largely is what's driving the customer mix.

是的。提姆，我也會提醒你我在上個季度的電話會議上說過的話，仍然是同樣的事情。在三月的季度指南中，客戶組合再次使我們受益，甚至可能比上個季度多一點。我帶你回到去年六月這個季度，當時我們擁有如此有利的地理組合，這在很大程度上是推動客戶組合的因素。

We were around 46% gross margin, 45.7%, I think, if I remember the June quarter specifically. That's not a bad place to kind of start when mix normalizes back to maybe more normal levels. So think about it that way. Somewhere in between there and where we are here. These operational improved install that we've been talking about are real things and as growth resumes and we know growth will resume at some juncture, we should benefit from like repositioning the company to these lower cost locations. So that's still on the come line. but it will require some level of growth in the business.

如果我還記得 6 月這個季度的話，我們的毛利率約為 46%，我想是 45.7%。當混合正常化到可能更正常的水平時，這並不是一個糟糕的開始。所以這樣想吧。介於那裡和我們這裡之間的某個地方。我們一直在談論的這些營運改善安裝是真實的事情，隨著成長的恢復，我們知道成長將在某個時刻恢復，我們應該會受益於將公司重新定位到這些成本較低的地點。所以這仍然是在線的。但這需要業務有一定程度的成長。

The next question is from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Again, going back to your large litho peer that reported this morning, right? They called out seeing an increase in customer utilization of their litho tools, both in memory and in Foundry and Logic, appearing that this is the early signal of a positive turn in cyclical dynamics. I know you guys are also track in real time utilization, activity rates of your customers. I know they're at very low levels, but are you guys starting to see some pickup in utilization rates across your customers? And is that also maybe giving you further confidence in your modest growth outlook for WFE this year?

再次回到今天早上報道的大型光刻同行，對吧？他們指出，客戶對他們的光刻工具的利用率增加，無論是在記憶體領域還是在鑄造和邏輯領域，這似乎都是週期性動態出現積極轉變的早期訊號。我知道你們也在追蹤客戶的即時利用率和活動率。我知道它們的水平非常低，但是你們是否開始看到客戶的利用率有所回升？這是否也可能讓您對今年 WFE 的溫和成長前景更有信心？

Yes. We've said in the past that we -- obviously, we track that pretty closely. I think you've heard our customers talk about increasing utilization. We've certainly seen and heard from our customers talk of strengthening in pricing in those markets. How we said it would affect us? I mean, in markets like NAND, we said we would -- with so much utilization taken offline, we would see some uptick in our spares business. We see that start to flow through upgrades. And as I mentioned in my script, we anticipate that a big portion of the uptick in memory spending this year will be coming through technology upgrades where -- the installed base is Lam equipment and therefore, the benefit -- a lot of the benefit of that WFE spending will flow to Lam as we do those technology upgrades.

是的。我們過去曾說過，顯然，我們非常密切地跟踪這一情況。我想您已經聽過我們的客戶談論提高利用率。我們當然已經看到並聽到客戶談論加強這些市場的定價。我們怎麼說這會影響我們？我的意思是，在像 NAND 這樣的市場，我們說過我們會——隨著如此多的利用率離線，我們會看到我們的備件業務有所增長。我們看到這種情況開始透過升級而發生。正如我在腳本中提到的，我們預計今年內存支出增長的很大一部分將來自技術升級，其中安裝基礎是 Lam 設備，因此，好處 - 很多好處當我們進行這些技術升級時，WFE 支出將流向Lam 。

The other element of the spending will be coming from the additional equipment that needs to get added to enable things like high bandwidth memory. And we've talked about the fact that in high bandwidth memory, Lam has a 100% market share of the critical technologies needed for stacking the DRAM. So I'll let our customers speak to what their utilizations are but what I'd say is that all signs are pointing to the memory market beginning to come out of its pretty darn near historic downturn over the last couple of years. And so that's what we're looking at for this year.

支出的另一個部分將來自需要添加的額外設備，以實現高頻寬記憶體等功能。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即在高頻寬記憶體領域，Lam 在堆疊 DRAM 所需的關鍵技術方面擁有 100% 的市場份額。因此，我會讓我們的客戶談談他們的利用率，但我想說的是，所有跡像都表明記憶體市場開始擺脫過去幾年近乎歷史性的低迷。這就是我們今年的目標。

That's very helpful. And then you mentioned this, I mean, your CSBG business has grown at a 17% CAGR since 2019, right? That's significantly faster than I think it was a 10% to 11% CAGR target that you guys put out at your last Analyst Day. I know it's been weak over the past few quarters, just given some of the supply side discipline of your customers, lower utilizations, slowing tech migration. But assuming that you will see the pickup in activity sometime this year. You combine that with a strong continued growth in the installed base business, number of chambers continues to grow at a low double-digit growth rate. Like how should we think about the growth profile, puts and takes of CSBG this year and going forward?

這非常有幫助。然後您提到這一點，我的意思是，自 2019 年以來，您的 CSBG 業務複合年增長率為 17%，對吧？這比我想像的要快得多，你們在上一次分析師日提出的複合年增長率目標是 10% 到 11%。我知道過去幾季一直疲軟，只是考慮到客戶的一些供應方紀律、利用率較低、技術遷移放緩。但假設您會在今年某個時候看到活動的回升。再加上已安裝業務的強勁持續成長，商會數量繼續以較低的兩位數成長率成長。例如我們該如何看待今年和未來 CSBG 的成長概況、投入和收益？

Yes, I don't know that we're going to put a number on the growth rate for CSBG at this point. But clearly, that business has been heavily impacted by the utilization cuts that occurred within our customer fabs. And we saw that both in spares as well as a curtailment of many of the technology upgrades that typically would just occur year in, year out. And so that did have an impact on CSBG revenues. I think that going forward, I talked about how much larger the installed base is now. That's a much larger installed base that because of the delay in technology upgrades, there's pent-up demand there. I mean those tools need to be upgraded to be operating at the latest and most efficient and most competitive technology node for our customers. And so I don't know the exact timing, but I do know that installed base will be upgraded and will actually generate quite a lot of revenue for Lam going forward.

是的，我不知道我們目前是否會給出 CSBG 成長率的數字。但顯然，該業務受到了我們客戶工廠內利用率削減的嚴重影響。我們看到，無論是備件還是許多通常年復一年都會發生的技術升級都受到了限制。這確實對 CSBG 的收入產生了影響。我認為展望未來，我談到了現在的安裝基礎有多大。這是一個更大的安裝基礎，由於技術升級的延遲，那裡有被壓抑的需求。我的意思是，這些工具需要升級，才能為我們的客戶在最新、最高效、最具競爭力的技術節點上運作。所以我不知道確切的時間，但我確實知道安裝基礎將會升級，並且實際上將為林未來帶來相當多的收入。

And Harlan, maybe just like to remind you, there's 4 components in CSBG, spare service upgrades, all of which will benefit from what Tim was describing. You also have the Reliant product line in there, which has just done amazing in the last year. That will ebb and flow to a certain extent with more mature nodes, specialty node WFE. So don't lose sight of that one. There might be a slightly different dynamic with the Reliant product line.

Harlan，也許只是想提醒您，CSBG 有 4 個組件，備用服務升級，所有這些都將從 Tim 所描述的內容中受益。其中還有 Reliant 產品線，該產品線在去年表現出色。隨著更成熟的節點、專業節點WFE的出現，這將在一定程度上潮起潮落。所以不要忽視那個。 Reliant 產品線的動態可能略有不同。

The next question is from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

First one, Tim, historically, you guys have benefited disproportionately when the NAND spending happens. And -- if you were to think about your position competitively when the NAND spending recovers, I understand this year there's more technology upgrades. But how should we think about your position coming out of this NAND downturn competitively, particularly on more layers than the whole edge process?

首先，提姆，從歷史上看，當 NAND 支出發生時，你們會受益匪淺。而且，如果你要考慮當 NAND 支出恢復時你的競爭地位，我知道今年會有更多的技術升級。但是，我們應該如何看待你們在 NAND 低迷時期的競爭地位，特別是在比整個邊緣工藝更多的層上？

Yes. I think that -- it's a good question, and that was what I pointed out. I mean I think what we're looking at in the near term in those first stages of recovery is customers are very cost sensitive. And the best way to achieve that next technology notice by upgrading the equipment that you have in place. And so Lam, we spend a tremendous amount of time investing in technologies that enable the upgrade and extension of our equipment, and that's really of high value to our customers. I think that will actually go on for quite a long time.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，這就是我所指出的。我的意思是，我認為我們近期在復甦的第一階段所關注的是客戶對成本非常敏感。實現下一個技術通知的最佳方法是升級您現有的設備。因此，林先生，我們花費了大量的時間投資於能夠升級和擴展我們的設備的技術，這對我們的客戶來說確實具有很高的價值。我認為這實際上會持續相當長的一段時間。

We have about 6,500 chambers of high aspect ratio etch, for instance, in the NAND marketplace. That creates a lot of next-generation technology through those upgrades. And beyond that, the learning you get from now running those upgraded chambers at that next technology node, tends to seed all of the ideas and understanding of the challenges that need to be solved at the mix node. And I think that's why the installed base positions and incumbent positions tend to be very difficult to break in this industry.

例如，在 NAND 市場中，我們擁有大約 6,500 個高深寬比蝕刻室。透過這些升級創造了許多下一代技術。除此之外，您從現在在下一個技術節點運行這些升級的腔室中獲得的知識，往往會孕育出所有想法和對混合節點需要解決的挑戰的理解。我認為這就是為什麼這個行業的已安裝基礎位置和現有位置往往很難被打破。

And we've tried to break many others -- break into others. And so we know that very well. What Lam has done extremely well is to collaborate closely with our customers. I talked about our close to customer strategy, putting R&D labs in very close proximity to our customers. And again, that's just the way in which we ensure that we're adequately meeting both their technology and cost needs going forward.

我們已經嘗試打破許多其他人——闖入其他人。我們非常清楚這一點。 Lam 做得非常出色的是與我們的客戶密切合作。我談到了我們貼近客戶的策略，即讓研發實驗室非常靠近我們的客戶。再說一次，這正是我們確保充分滿足他們未來的技術和成本需求的方式。

Great. And then a quick clarification, Doug, on the OpEx. You said R&D will be up year-over-year. I wasn't sure if that implies total OpEx is also up or SG&A is down to offset the increase in R&D?

偉大的。 Doug，然後快速澄清一下營運支出。你說研發將年增。我不確定這是否意味著總營運支出也增加了，或銷售、管理費用（SG&A）下降以抵消研發的增加？

Total OpEx is probably going to be up Atif, R&D will be up more, right? We had 69% of total spending in R&D in the last quarter. That's a high watermark. But we're purposefully growing R&D., primarily because of all those inflections that we've been talking about.

總營運支出可能會增加 Atif，研發費用會增加更多，對嗎？上季我們的研發支出佔總支出的 69%。這是一個高水位線。但我們有目的地增加研發，主要是因為我們一直在談論的所有這些變化。

I think the maybe the easiest way to think about it is the lead time for us to develop new products that we need to drive growth is unfortunately a little bit longer than the lead time for our spending revenue. So with an outlook that growth is coming and that we're entering this next upturn, where there are tremendous opportunities for the company, we feel very confident to invest ahead of that revenue showing up, and that's I think what we signaled through this year. But with the confidence that we're going to see that growth in new products and technology investment from our customers.

我認為最簡單的思考方式可能是，我們開發推動成長所需的新產品的交付時間不幸地比我們支出收入的交付時間稍長。因此，鑑於成長即將到來，我們正在進入下一個好轉階段，公司將面臨巨大的機遇，因此我們非常有信心在收入出現之前進行投資，我認為這就是我們今年所發出的信號。但我們有信心看到客戶對新產品和技術投資的成長。

The next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

The first one on WFE. Doug, I -- forget if you mentioned this, but is there a first half, second half sort of bias that you're willing to share as we think about the trajectory of WFE this year? And more importantly, curious how we should be thinking about your rate of outperformance vis-a-vis the market? You guys have talked about obviously, depth and etch intensity growing across the memory space. You talked about advanced packaging in HBM. HBM things like dry resist. So assuming you're accurate with your WFE assumption and the market's up call it, mid- to high singles. What sort of outperformance can we sort of expect from you guys in calendar '24?

第一個是 WFE 上的。道格，我——忘記你是否提到過這一點，但是當我們思考今年 WFE 的發展軌跡時，你是否願意分享上半年、下半年的偏見？更重要的是，好奇我們應該如何考慮您相對於市場的表現優於市場的比率？你們顯然已經討論過，深度和蝕刻強度在整個儲存空間中不斷增長。您談到了 HBM 中的高級封裝。 HBM 之類的東西，例如乾抗蝕劑。因此，假設您的 WFE 假設是準確的，並且市場將其稱為中高單。我們可以期待你們在 24 日曆年中取得什麼樣的優異表現？

Yes. Toshiya, I guess the first -- I think it's a little bit second half weighted year this year. I think it's going to be sort of the slow start to the year, maybe, right? We just guided to essentially flat revenues quarter-on-quarter. So that's part of what you're seeing, but we would expect it will be somewhat stronger in the second half. And then overall, we're not going to give you the individual components between NAND, DRAM, Foundry and Logic, what grows more. I think everything probably grows to a certain extent. When we look at all these inflections so in all aspects of those end markets, we see etch and deposition intensity stepping up as you walk from node to node to node. So that is unchanged.

是的。 Toshiya，我猜是第一個——我認為今年下半年的比重有點大。我認為今年的開局可能會比較緩慢，對嗎？我們剛預測季度營收基本持平。這就是你所看到的一部分，但我們預計下半年情況會有所加強。總的來說，我們不會向您提供 NAND、DRAM、Foundry 和 Logic 之間的各個元件，這些元件的成長速度會更快。我想一切事物都會發展到一定程度。當我們在這些終端市場的各個方面審視所有這些變化時，我們會看到當您從一個節點走到另一個節點時，蝕刻和沈積強度會逐漸增加。所以這沒有改變。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on China, Doug, you mentioned China as a percentage of your systems revenue to stay elevated in the March quarter. And then you went on to say that, that number should decline as you progress through the year. Is that just purely a function of your other businesses, other regions improving throughout the year? Or are you sort of sensing absolute decline in your China business? And if so, what are some of the areas or device types or applications you're seeing a slowdown?

知道了。然後，作為我對中國的跟進，道格，您提到中國在您的系統收入中所佔的百分比將在三月季度保持在高水準。然後你接著說，隨著這一年的進展，這個數字應該會下降。這純粹是你們其他業務、其他地區全年不斷改善的結果嗎？還是您感覺到您的中國業務絕對下滑？如果是這樣，您發現哪些領域、裝置類型或應用程式速度放緩？

We are not seeing China slowdown. It's purely just timing of when spending is occurring, honestly.

我們沒有看到中國經濟放緩。老實說，這純粹只是支出發生的時間。

Toshiya, we've preferably been using the word, and I think you heard it in both Tim and my comments stable, right? So that's a consistent description that we have been saying for a while.

Toshiya，我們最好一直使用這個詞，我想你在 Tim 和我的評論中都聽過這個詞，對吧？這是我們一段時間以來一直在說的一致的描述。

The next question is from C.J. Muse with Cantor.

下一個問題是 C.J. Muse 和 Cantor 提出的。

I guess I was hoping you could speak to kind of your vision for what a recovery might look like for NAND and where we might get to on a normalized basis, perhaps in 2025? And then -- and if you reflect on perhaps a lower normalized number and think about some of the new areas that you're investing in, whether it's memory or advanced packaging or changes in backside power gate-all-around. Is there enough kind of juice there to get you to where you can overall drive that rich WFE intensity and get us back to kind of those peak levels when 3D NAND was first adopted?

我想我希望您能談談您對 NAND 復甦的願景以及我們可能在正常化的基礎上（也許在 2025 年）實現的目標？然後，如果您考慮可能較低的標準化數字，並考慮您正在投資的一些新領域，無論是記憶體、先進封裝還是背面電源閘極的變化。是否有足夠的動力讓您能夠全面驅動豐富的 WFE 強度，並讓我們回到 3D NAND 首次採用時的峰值水平？

Sure, C.J. I think the simple answer is, yes, we do believe that. I mean, we've -- let me address the NAND question first, which -- as I mentioned, this year, customers are primarily focusing on technology upgrades and what makes sense. I mean eventually, to drive the type of bit growth that we think we see longer term. Obviously, there are some additions that need to be made, but we're not forecasting that this year.

當然，C.J. 我認為簡單的答案是，是的，我們確實相信這一點。我的意思是，我們——讓我先解決 NAND 問題，正如我所提到的，今年客戶主要專注於技術升級和有意義的事情。我的意思是最終會推動我們認為長期來看的比特成長。顯然，還需要進行一些補充，但我們預計今年不會這樣做。

With each of those technology evolutions, etch and dep intensity rises simply because of the increasing number of layers. And in a technology upgrade, we've talked about the fact that Lam captures a much higher percentage of WFE because of the goal that etch and deposition play in the technology upgrade. So I think that as we see NAND growing -- recovering and growing at a certain percentage rate, Lam will actually significantly outperform that rate because of the fact that most of that is coming from upgrades.

隨著這些技術的每一次發展，蝕刻和深度強度的提高僅僅是因為層數的增加。在技​​術升級中，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實：由於蝕刻和沈積在技術升級中發揮的作用，Lam 獲得了更高比例的 WFE。因此，我認為，當我們看到 NAND 成長——以一定百分比恢復和成長時，Lam 實際上將顯著超過該速度，因為其中大部分來自升級。

Now longer term, I think we have turned to our attention and strategically, we've said we want to build resilience into our business by really capturing a lot of the opportunities that exist. Of course in NAND where we're very strong, but really outside of NAND and some of these other markets that are becoming more etch and dep intensive. And we've talked about those, whether it's gate-all-around or backside power or advanced packaging, dry EUV patterning. And each of those, we've characterized as a $1 billion-plus opportunity when fully scaled for Lam. So -- and those are SAM expansion meaning that they are incremental to where Lam has been before.

現在，從長遠來看，我認為我們已經轉向我們的注意力和策略上，我們說過我們希望透過真正抓住大量現有的機會來增強我們的業務彈性。當然，在 NAND 領域，我們非常強大，但實際上在 NAND 和其他一些正在變得更加蝕刻和深度密集的市場之外。我們已經討論過這些，無論是全柵極、背面電源還是先進封裝、乾式 EUV 圖案化。對 Lam 而言，我們將其中每一項都視為一個價值超過 10 億美元的機會。因此，這些都是 SAM 擴展，這意味著它們是 Lam 之前的增量。

So I think when you play those out and obviously, we have to be successful in execution. That's why we keep talking about we're gaining traction, but there's still a ways to go before these inflections and all decisions are made. But we think those can certainly drive Lam to new highs in terms of revenue and obviously profitability as well.

所以我認為，當你把這些都付諸實行時，顯然我們必須在執行上取得成功。這就是為什麼我們一直在談論我們正在獲得牽引力，但在這些變化和做出所有決定之前還有很長的路要走。但我們認為，這些肯定可以推動 Lam 在收入和盈利能力方面創下新高。

Very helpful, Tim. I guess a quick follow-up, Doug. I know you're hesitant to guide OpEx for the full year, but perhaps you could help us understand maybe the impact of the extra week on the March quarter? And how you're thinking about driving that R&D growth through the calendar year?

非常有幫助，蒂姆。我想是快速跟進，道格。我知道您對指導全年營運支出猶豫不決，但也許您可以幫助我們了解額外一周對三月份季度的影響？您如何考慮推動全年研發成長？

Yes, C.J. I mean, it's 14 weeks versus 13. That's the right way to kind of think about it. You can just ratio it to understand kind of it's a longer quarter. So that's the piece from that. And then any delta to get to the 29.5% op margin is part of that beginning to step up R&D. As we go through the year, though, we will purposely be growing the investment in R&D so that you might not see the historic leverage that we've delivered is what I described a quarter ago, and that's still very much how you should be thinking about it.

是的，C.J. 我的意思是，這是 14 週，而不是 13 週。這是正確的思考方式。您只需對其進行比率即可了解這是一個較長的季度。這就是其中的一部分。然後，任何達到 29.5% 營運利潤率的增量都是開始加強研發的一部分。不過，在這一年中，我們將有目的地增加研發投資，這樣你可能就看不到我一個季度前所描述的我們所提供的歷史槓桿作用，而這仍然是你應該如何思考的關於它。

The next question is from Srinivas Pajjuri with Raymond James.

下一個問題是斯里尼瓦斯·帕朱里 (Srinivas Pajjuri) 和雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 提出的。

Tim, you talked about your trough EPS doubling essentially, which is a tremendous achievement and execution. I think part of the reason was your services business did increase as a percent of the mix. I think that helped for sure stabilizing the cyclicality a bit. So as we go through the next, I guess, as we kind of look out to the next couple of years as business recovers, just curious as to how you think about the mix shaking out between systems and services? And how -- what sort of implications that might have for your top line and also your margin profile? And I guess, on the next peak EPS, if you want to talk about?

提姆，您談到您的每股盈餘低谷基本上翻了一番，這是一項巨大的成就和執行力。我認為部分原因是您的服務業務確實在混合業務中所佔的百分比增加。我認為這肯定有助於穩定週期性。因此，當我們展望接下來的幾年時，我想，隨著業務的復甦，我們會展望未來幾年，只是好奇您如何看待系統和服務之間的混合？這會對您的營收和利潤狀況產生什麼樣的影響？我想，關於下一個 EPS 峰值，您是否想談談？

Well, here's why it's always a little difficult to answer this question is because we're certainly investing to grow our systems business tremendously as well. And so we don't look at it as one trading off versus the other. And so in fact, one kind of begets the other. The better our systems business does the faster our installed base grows, and that's really the story from 2019 in that -- until now, when we talk about how much the installed base has grown. We shipped a lot of new systems that grew that installed base by nearly 50%.

好吧，這就是為什麼回答這個問題總是有點困難，因為我們當然也在投資以極大發展我們的系統業務。因此，我們不會將其視為一種與另一種的權衡。事實上，一種會產生另一種。我們的系統業務做得越好，我們的安裝基礎增長得越快，這確實是 2019 年的故事 - 直到現在，當我們談論安裝基礎增長了多少時。我們推出了許多新系統，使安裝基數成長了近 50%。

So going forward, I think that we anticipate the ratio of CSBG revenue to overall revenue staying kind of in the historical range that it's been. And that's just going to be driven by kind of equivalent on success in both parts. But the CSBG revenue, the installed base business, not only gives us stability, but it also opens new channels for growth for the company. And I've talked about this on previous calls, which is we -- I think that when we think about how Lam leverages, things like artificial intelligence and data. It's in the installed base services business.

因此，展望未來，我認為我們預計 CSBG 收入與整體收入的比率將保持在歷史範圍內。這將由這兩個部分的成功所推動。但CSBG收入，即安裝基礎業務，不僅為我們帶來了穩定性，而且還為公司的成長開闢了新的管道。我在之前的電話會議上談到過這一點，我認為當我們思考林如何利用人工智慧和數據等事物時。它屬於安裝基礎服務業務。

On the last call, I talked about even cobots, the use of collaborative robots to start to do some of the service that today is done by skilled engineers. Our customers in this industry have to find ways to be able to innovate faster and also provide manufacturing services at a lower cost. And I think that -- we can do that by innovating around the installed base and create new products and service offerings that help us grow at a faster pace than the installed base itself is growing.

在最後一次電話會議上，我甚至談到了協作機器人，即使用協作機器人來開始做一些今天由熟練工程師完成的服務。我們這個行業的客戶必須找到能夠更快地創新並以更低的成本提供製造服務的方法。我認為，我們可以透過圍繞安裝基礎進行創新並創造新產品和服務來實現這一點，幫助我們以比安裝基礎本身成長更快的速度成長。

Got it. And then Doug, one clarification on the deferred revenue. I think it went up about $238 million this quarter. You talked about prepayments. Just curious, are customers still prepaying because of any supply constraints? Or is this an ongoing, I guess, trend that you're seeing? Just if you can talk about how we should think about deferred revenue going forward, that will be helpful.

知道了。然後道格對遞延收入進行了澄清。我認為本季增加了約 2.38 億美元。您談到了預付款。只是好奇，由於供應限制，客戶是否仍在預付款？或者我猜這是您所看到的持續趨勢嗎？如果您能談談我們應該如何考慮未來的遞延收入，那就會有所幫助。

Yes, Srini. I guess what I described is you think about the advanced payment is when we have a new customer that we're just kind of understanding what their balance sheet looks like, especially if they're a private customer that we could see the balance sheet. It's not publicly reported. And the creditworthiness might be sort of questionable. We require cash upfront before we begin manufacturing the tool, and that's what's going on there. That's all it is.

是的，斯里尼。我想我所描述的是，您對預付款的看法是，當我們有新客戶時，我們只是了解他們的資產負債表是什麼樣子，特別是如果他們是私人客戶，我們可以看到資產負債表。這並沒有公開報道。而且信用度可能有點值得懷疑。在開始製造工具之前，我們需要預先支付現金，而這就是那裡發生的事情。僅此而已。

The next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

For the first one, around the China BOP being stable in calendar '24. Do you see all market segments being stable? Or do you see some like being stronger and some being weaker? Like how do you see that interplay?

第一個，24 年中國國際收支平衡。您認為所有細分市場都穩定嗎？還是你看到有些人喜歡變得更強，有些人喜歡變得更弱？你如何看待這種相互作用？

Stacy, I don't really see a big change year-on-year relative to end market. I'll remind you, when China DRAM was second half weighted last year. It's probably a little bit first half weighted in China, maybe more than a little bit this year. But year-over-year, I don't think I really think about a significant change in contribution for the entire year.

史黛西，相對於終端市場，我並沒有真正看到同比大的變化。我提醒一下，去年下半年中國DRAM加權的時候。中國上半年的比重可能會增加，今年可能會更多。但與去年同期相比，我認為我並沒有真正考慮到全年的貢獻會發生重大變化。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess a follow-up on the China questions, and maybe it's a follow-up on one of the earlier questions. But it does sound to me like you are suggesting China mix should come down through the year. Maybe you can clarify that because if I've got overall stable China revenues like how does your China mix come down materially? It doesn't look like you're looking for overall like non-China WFE to grow a ton, right, in some of the other areas. So...

知道了。這很有幫助。我想這是對中國問題的後續行動，也許這是先前問題之一的後續行動。但在我看來，你確實在建議中國的組合應該會在今年下降。也許你可以澄清這一點，因為如果我的中國收入總體穩定，例如你的中國組合會如何大幅下降？總體而言，您似乎並不像非中國 WFE 那樣尋求在其他一些領域實現大幅增長，對吧。所以...

Yes. Let me remind you, in 2023, China was a more modest amount of WFE that grew in the second half of the year. And so the comments we're making are year-over-year, it's relatively stable. Kind of the half-on-half stuff probably looks different in '24 than it did in '23 in China specifically.

是的。讓我提醒您，2023 年，中國的 WFE 數量在下半年成長較為溫和。所以我們做出的評論是逐年的，相對穩定。特別是在中國，24 年的半對半的東西可能看起來與 23 年的不同。

That's helpful. And so then exiting the year, you think you're back to that sort of normalized gross margin range as a result of that as China falls off in the second half?

這很有幫助。那麼，今年結束後，您認為隨著中國下半年的下滑，您會回到那種正常化的毛利率範圍嗎？

Yes. The customer mix stuff, I think, mitigates some as we go through the year, and it continues to be quite strong in the March quarter guidance.

是的。我認為，隨著這一年的發展，客戶組合的情況會有所緩解，並且在三月季度的指導中它仍然相當強勁。

The next question is from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

For my first one, I'm curious, what's your assessment of NAND supply demand as it exists today? I think in your WFE view, you are assuming that NAND grows but more because of technology upgrades. But what are your customers telling you for as to when they want to start adding more tools? And what's Lam's opportunity to grow NAND right at a measurable pace in the second half of the year?

對於我的第一個問題，我很好奇，您對當今 NAND 供應需求的評估是什麼？我認為在您的 WFE 觀點中，您假設 NAND 的成長但更多是因為技術升級。但是，當您的客戶想要開始添加更多工具時，他們會告訴您什麼？ Lam 在今年下半年以可衡量的速度成長 NAND 的機會​​是什麼？

Yes. I think that -- first of all, I wouldn't necessarily talk about what we are discussing with our customers on that standpoint. But things that are out there. We do know, and I think you know that the utilization cuts were pretty severe in NAND last year. And so there's a tremendous amount of capacity that is -- has been offline and we've said in the past that needs to be brought back online. And I think the question and the discussions we're having is that what technology node should that capacity be restarted. And in many cases, there is a very high likelihood that technology upgrade certainly will occur as that equipment is brought back into service.

是的。我認為，首先，我不一定會從這個角度談論我們正在與客戶討論的內容。但事情就在那裡。我們確實知道，而且我想您也知道去年 NAND 的利用率削減相當嚴重。因此，有大量的容量已經離線，我們過去曾說過需要將其恢復在線。我認為我們正在討論的問題是應該重啟哪個技術節點的能力。在許多情況下，當設備重新投入使用時，很可能會發生技術升級。

And so in that case, we would actually begin to see a restart of some of the utilization driven revenue that we get from things like spares and services, as well as, at the same time, a restart of technology upgrade revenues. And that's why I think that from a NAND perspective this year, we think that will effectively represent the majority of the spend that occurs in this segment.

因此，在這種情況下，我們實際上會開始看到我們從備件和服務等方面獲得的一些利用率驅動的收入的重新啟動，同時技術升級收入的重新啟動。這就是為什麼我認為從今年 NAND 的角度來看，我們認為這將有效地代表該領域的大部分支出。

Okay. And then, Tim, as many of the DRAM customers are saying that they plan to shift a bit more towards HVM from DDR. Does that have any positive or negative influence on your CSBG and the spares business?

好的。然後，Tim，正如許多 DRAM 客戶所說，他們計劃從 DDR 轉向 HVM。這對您的 CSBG 和備件業務有正面或負面的影響嗎？

No, I don't -- I can't quite make that connection right now. I'm off to give us some thought. But clearly, we see an impact on our systems business, as I mentioned, where we're having to add the specific HVM related especially advanced packaging steps related to the stacking of HVM itself. And we're seeing significant growth in that area. But -- and so with that, given we're shipping additional systems, there is some incremental spares business and services business that goes along with that. But the systems portion of that kind outweighs from a dollars perspective.

不，我不知道——我現在還不能完全建立這種聯繫。我要去給我們一些思考。但顯然，正如我所提到的，我們看到了對我們系統業務的影響，我們必須添加與 HVM 相關的特定 HVM，尤其是與 HVM 本身堆疊相關的高級打包步驟。我們看到該領域的顯著成長。但是，鑑於我們正在運送額外的系統，隨之而來的是一些增量備件業務和服務業務。但從美元的角度來看，這類系統部分更重要。

I guess maybe just to clarify, does your CSBG business start to kind of grow consistent with the growth in your tools business overall? Or do you think there is going to be a lag factor because it slowed down later? Does it start to regrow later also?

我想也許只是想澄清一下，您的 CSBG 業務是否開始與您的工具業務整體成長保持一致？還是你認為會有一個滯後因素，因為它後來放緩了？後來也開始再生嗎？

Depends on the rate of growth in WFE to be perfectly frank, that are coming. See, spare service upgrades chug along, and we think that's going to benefit as utilization and whatnot begins to come back. Then to really answer your question, you got to go figure out what you think the pace of WFE growth is. I'm not going to put numbers on that right now. We're going to kind of wait and see.

坦白說，這取決於 WFE 的成長率。看，備用服務升級進展順利，我們認為隨著利用率等的開始恢復，這將會受益。然後，要真正回答您的問題，您必須弄清楚您認為 WFE 的成長速度是多少。我現在不打算給出具體數字。我們將拭目以待。

The next question is from Krish Sankar with CDT Cowen.

下一個問題來自 CDT Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

First of all, for Doug. I think Doug has mentioned about a gradual recovery in WFE this year, kind of more back half rated. So I'm kind of curious, and Doug, I'm not looking for like guidance. What I'm just wondering is, is this better assume Lam's revenues in the calendar second half of 2024 is going to be better than first half? That's for my first question and then I have a follow-up.

首先，對於道格來說。我認為道格提到了今年 WFE 的逐步復甦，有點後半評級。所以我有點好奇，道格，我並不是在尋找類似的指導。我只是想知道，這是假設 Lam 在 2024 年下半年的收入將好於上半年的假設嗎？這是我的第一個問題，然後我有一個後續問題。

You're a little bit muffled, Krish, but I think you were asking about our performance along with WFE. And frankly, I think we will mirror whatever the trajectory of WFE looks like with an expectation that etch and dep outgrows to a certain extent. I think I answered your question, although you were a little bit muffled there.

Krish，你有點悶悶不樂，但我想你是在問我們和 WFE 的表現。坦白說，我認為我們將反映 WFE 的發展軌跡，並期望 etch 和 dep 在一定程度上能夠成長。我想我已經回答了你的問題，儘管你的語氣有點模糊。

Doug, I was just trying to wonder if calendar second half '24 revenue for Lam is going to be better than calendar first half similar to WFE?

Doug，我只是想知道 Lam 24 年下半年的收入是否會比類似於 WFE 的上半年更好？

Yes, I think it will be, Krish, I'm not going to put numbers on it yet, but we will mirror what goes on with WFE.

是的，我認為會的，Krish，我還不打算給出具體數字，但我們會反映 WFE 的情況。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up is for Tim and Doug. You spoke about HBM and AI and all the good stuff. I'm just wondering does HBM and DDR5, 2 sets for dep and etch differ from DDR4 and Legacy in a way, is it more like (inaudible) from a margin standpoint? Or does it -- is it like a mutual standpoint?

知道了。知道了。好的。然後我的後續行動是針對提姆和道格的。您談到了 HBM 和人工智慧以及所有好東西。我只是想知道 HBM 和 DDR5、2 套 dep 和 etch 在某種程度上是否與 DDR4 和 Legacy 有所不同，從利潤的角度來看，它是否更像（聽不清楚）？或者是──這就像是共同的立場嗎？

I guess what I'd say, Krish, from a margin standpoint, you shouldn't think about any differential margin necessarily. The incremental piece for the stuff that goes in high-bandwidth memory is a bigger die, you know that. The die itself, building a DDR5 die is largely the same equipment that builds DDR5 that doesn't go into HBM. The incremental stuff comes when you go into the advanced packaging stuff, the Syndion deep silicon etch and the electroplating are areas where we are extraordinarily strong in addition to some other things. That is clearly incremental equipment.

我想我會說，克里什，從保證金的角度來看，你不一定應該考慮任何差異保證金。你知道，高頻寬記憶體中的增量部分是一個更大的晶片。晶片本身（建構 DDR5 晶片）與建構不進入 HBM 的 DDR5 的裝置基本相同。當你進入先進封裝材料時，就會出現增量的東西，除了其他一些東西之外，Syndion 深矽蝕刻和電鍍是我們非常強大的領域。這顯然是增量設備。

Yes. And I think from an etch and dep intensity perspective, in general, I think you mentioned DDR5 to DD -- DDR4 to DDR5. I mean I think in general, with each technology node evolution, whether it's DRAM, NAND, Foundry Logic, we've said etch and dep intensity rises with technology advancement. And so I think you can imagine that there's more equipment being needed, and that's in addition to the fact that larger die sizes drive greater equipment per bid out. So there's a lot of factors that every time we move forward, there's more equipment and more Lam equipment required with those technology nodes.

是的。我認為從蝕刻和深度強度的角度來看，總的來說，我認為您提到了 DDR5 到 DD——DDR4 到 DDR5。我的意思是，我認為總的來說，隨著每個技術節點的發展，無論是 DRAM、NAND、Foundry Logic，我們都說過蝕刻和深度強度隨著技術進步而增加。因此，我認為您可以想像需要更多的設備，此外，更大的晶片尺寸會推動每次投標的更多設備。因此，有許多因素導致我們每次前進時，這些技術節點都需要更多的設備和更多的 Lam 設備。

The next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

If I can ask about your DRAM systems revenues in the December quarter. They were kind of back to the highs of a couple of years ago, but I know you had some China in there, I think there's some of the events packaging. Can you just give us a sense for what's kind of core DRAM within that? And then you're pretty constructive on where that's going. Can you give us a sense of the dynamics of China going forward versus other regions and other parts of DRAM?

我可以詢問你們 12 月季度的 DRAM 系統收入嗎？他們有點回到了幾年前的高點，但我知道其中有一些中國，我認為有一些活動的包裝。您能給我們介紹一下其中的核心 DRAM 是什麼樣的嗎？然後你對事情的發展方向很有建設性。您能為我們介紹一下中國相對於其他地區和 DRAM 其他部分的發展動態嗎？

I guess, Joe, I would just to take you back to what I had in my script. Two things are driving the strength in DRAM in the December quarter, and you mentioned both of them, frankly. It's high bandwidth memory in DDR5. In addition to the fact that we've got a China customer in DRAM in the second half of the year. That includes September and December, that wasn't in the first half. So each of those things contribute to the strength you saw in December.

我想，喬，我只是想帶你回到我的劇本裡的內容。有兩件事正在推動 DRAM 在 12 月季度的強勢，坦白說，您也提到了這兩件事。它是 DDR5 的高頻寬記憶體。除此之外，我們在下半年獲得了 DRAM 的中國客戶。其中包括 9 月和 12 月，但不在上半年。因此，這些事情中的每一個都有助於你在 12 月看到的力量。

Okay. And then looking forward, it seemed like you had more than 6 months of demand from that China customer in the second half going forward. Does that come down, but core DRAM comes up and HVM comes up?

好的。然後展望未來，下半年中國客戶似乎有超過 6 個月的需求。是不是下降了，但核心 DRAM 出現了，HVM 出現了？

Probably.

大概。

The next question is from Brian Chin with Stifel.

下一個問題是來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Maybe going back to NAND, the best ever quarter for NAND spending was probably higher than the total level of NAND spending maybe for all of last year. And so even if it's off a low base, isn't it pretty logical that NAND WFE should exhibit the largest or highest rate of improvement in '24?

也許回到 NAND，有史以來最好的 NAND 支出季度可能高於去年全年 NAND 支出的總水平。因此，即使基數較低，NAND WFE 在 24 年應該表現出最大或最高的改進率，這不是很合乎邏輯嗎？

I wouldn't necessarily draw that conclusion, Brian. I think all we're going to tell you is that I think every segment WFE grows this year, NAND, DRAM, Foundry, Logic, it's all up to a certain extent. I'm not going to get into the business of quantifying each individual one because frankly, at the end of the day, we'll get it wrong. But I think everything will grow to a certain extent with peers.

我不一定會得出這個結論，布萊恩。我想我們要告訴你的是，我認為今年 WFE 的每個細分市場都在成長，NAND、DRAM、代工、邏輯，這都在某種程度上。我不打算量化每個個體，因為坦白說，最終我們會弄錯。但我覺得一切都會和同儕一起成長到某種程度。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just to kind of level set and DRAM and then also looking forward. How much did DRAM industry spending actually declined in '23? It seems to be better than what was initially thought based on HBM, et cetera. And also, can you give us a sense of the number of wafer starts or percent of the DRAM installed base that could be converted to more advanced 1-alpha or 1-beta like process nodes this year?

好的。很公平。然後只是級別設定和 DRAM，然後也很期待。 23 年 DRAM 產業支出實際下降了多少？它似乎比最初基於 HBM 等所認為的要好。另外，您能否讓我們了解今年可以轉換為更先進的 1-alpha 或 1-beta 類製程節點的晶圓啟動數量或 DRAM 安裝基礎的百分比？

I guess, Brian, what I'd say and Tim, I think had this in his script, memory overall was down roughly 40%. NAND was down north of 70%. The differential to get to the number is DRAM. You can do that. And yes, I think the second part of your question, HBM and DDR5 has been a big part of the strength in DRAM.

我想，布萊恩，我想說的是，蒂姆，我認為他的劇本中有這個，內存總體下降了大約 40%。 NAND 跌幅超過 70%。獲得該數字的差異在於 DRAM。你可以這麼做。是的，我認為你問題的第二部分，HBM 和 DDR5 一直是 DRAM 優勢的重要組成部分。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And that was actually the second part was kind of more towards, what is the potential number of wafer starts or the percent of the installed base that's sort of game for those conversions to 1-alpha, 1-beta light nodes?

好的。實際上，第二部分更多的是關於晶圓啟動的潛在數量或安裝基礎的百分比是多少，這是轉換為 1-alpha、1-beta 輕節點的遊戲？

For the most part, in memory, everything gets upgraded to the next node, all of it. That's always been the case. It's not a new phenomenon.

大多數情況下，在記憶體中，所有內容都會升級到下一個節點。情況一直如此。這不是一個新現象。

The next question is from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

The question is on delivery times. And you had mentioned, obviously, your delivery times may be different than some others in the industry. Where do they sit right now? And as a consequence, how much visibility do your customers need to give you? And with that, when we start to see some stronger perhaps memory spending, how quickly will you be able to react to that and turn that for revenue?

問題是交貨時間。顯然，您提到過，您的交貨時間可能與業內其他一些公司不同。他們現在坐在哪裡？因此，您的客戶需要為您提供多少可見度？因此，當我們開始看到一些可能更強勁的記憶體支出時，您能夠多快對此做出反應並將其轉化為收入？

Yes. So we don't obviously publicly telegraph our lead times. But we had talked about the fact that during the COVID pandemic, our lead times due to supply chain shortages, it stretched out quite long. And those have now come back to a much more normalized level, although they still are such that for us to make shipments within this year, we would have to know about those orders and that forecast pretty quickly. The one thing that's helped is I talked about our investments in new manufacturing and supply chain operations within our customer ecosystems. That's putting us much closer, it's diversifying our supplier base and I think it's going to -- through this next upturn make us much more responsive to customer needs.

是的。因此，我們顯然不會公開透露我們的交貨時間。但我們談到了這樣一個事實，即在新冠疫情期間，由於供應鏈短缺，我們的交貨時間拉得很長。這些現在已經回到了更正常化的水平，儘管它們仍然如此，以至於我們要在今年內發貨，我們必須很快了解這些訂單和預測。有幫助的一件事是我談到了我們對客戶生態系統內的新製造和供應鏈營運的投資。這讓我們更加接近，它使我們的供應商基礎更加多元化，我認為，透過下一次的好轉，我們將能夠更好地回應客戶的需求。

So really, we worry less about lead time and more about our ability to respond in the time frame, which our customers need to place orders to meet their ramps. We tend not to be -- we tend not to be in the bottleneck, let's put it that way in terms of a lead time perspective, planning a new fab.

因此，實際上，我們不太擔心交貨時間，而是更擔心我們在時間範圍內做出回應的能力，這是我們的客戶需要下訂單以滿足他們的需求的。我們往往不會陷入瓶頸，讓我們從交貨時間的角度來看，規劃一個新的晶圓廠。

Fair enough. As a follow-up question, I wanted to ask about backside power. And last quarter, you made some disclosures about the revenue impact to Lam as that happened. Could you give a little more color on that and specifically, we know that the different customers are having different implementations of backside power. At what point does that start to become a meaningful driver for Lam?

很公平。作為後續問題，我想詢問有關背面電源的問題。上個季度，您披露了一些有關此事發生時對林的收入影響的資訊。您能否對此進行更多說明，具體來說，我們知道不同的客戶對背面電源有不同的實現。這在什麼時候開始成為林鄭月娥的一個有意義的驅動力？

I think given the important role that both etch and deposition play in that and our strong position in parts of the backside power process like copper plating where some of those layers are becoming quite thick and therefore the processes become longer. It's -- I would say, going to very rapidly become quite meaningful for the company. And again, it's just a further demonstration of how going 3D and essentially using those -- using etch and deposition to create more complex architectures allows you to reduce power, improve chip performance and also reduce cost. And we talked about it in the sense of backside power. You're seeing the same thing with chip stacking and HBM and energy integration. And that's why I said, I think the next era of semiconductor is characterized by all of these more unique 3D architectures. They're all good for the types of products we sell.

我認為，考慮到蝕刻和沈積在其中發揮的重要作用，以及我們在背面電源製程部分（例如鍍銅）中的強勢地位，其中一些層變得相當厚，因此製程變得更長。我想說，這很快就會對公司變得非常有意義。再說一遍，這只是進一步演示瞭如何進行 3D 以及如何本質上使用這些技術——使用蝕刻和沈積來創建更複雜的架構，從而降低功耗、提高晶片性能並降低成本。我們從背面力量的角度討論了它。您會在晶片堆疊、HBM 和能源整合中看到相同的情況。這就是為什麼我說，我認為下一個半導體時代的特點是所有這些更獨特的 3D 架構。它們都適合我們銷售的產品類型。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And that question comes from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

這個問題來自巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

I was curious if you guys had a view on the HBM market. Clearly, with the accelerator market growing as quickly as some think. There's concerns that the HBM market may actually be shipping above peak in '24 and '25. Do you guys have a view internally on just how fast HBM is growing as a market segment? And just -- could you just give us the perspective of when you look at an acceleration of a tool road map with a customer on HBM. How much of that has pulled in, in the last 6 months from what you would typically see from a DRAM customer when they're looking for a tool?

我很好奇你們對 HBM 市場有何看法。顯然，加速器市場的成長速度正如某些人想像的那樣快。有人擔心 HBM 市場的出貨量實際上可能高於 24 年和 25 年的高峰。你們對 HBM 作為一個細分市場的成長速度有多快有內部看法嗎？您能否向我們介紹一下您在 HBM 上與客戶一起加速工具路線圖的視角。在過去 6 個月中，其中有多少與您在 DRAM 客戶尋找工具時通常會看到的情況有所不同？

Well, I think that as a real key supplier into the HBM market, as I mentioned, the strong position we have in the processes required before the stacking, this is an area where we're seeing very, very strong demand. I think that whether or not at some point, it's shipping above peak, I think that this AI market is continuing to evolve at a very, very fast rate. And all we're focused on right now is ensuring we are building out our own capacity and capabilities. And ensuring that we maintain that technology leadership that's allowing us to hold 100% market share of the TSV formation in HBM. And so really, that's our focus is hold the position and let the market grow as fast as the market grows.

嗯，我認為，作為 HBM 市場的真正關鍵供應商，正如我所提到的，我們在堆疊之前所需的流程中擁有強大的地位，這是我們看到非常非常強勁的需求的領域。我認為，無論在某個時候，它的出貨量是否超過峰值，我認為這個人工智慧市場正在以非常非常快的速度繼續發展。我們現在關注的是確保我們正在建立我們自己的能力和能力。確保我們保持技術領先地位，使我們能夠在 HBM 的 TSV 形成中佔據 100% 的市場份額。事實上，我們的重點是保持地位，讓市場隨著市場的成長而快速成長。

Helpful. And then just one on the makeup of inventory. You guys have talked about working down inventory throughout the year. Is there any color you can give us on the makeup of that inventory? Is it more memory related or foundry logic related? I know you don't want to give specifics, but just where do you see that inventory coming down through the first half of the calendar year?

有幫助。然後是庫存的組成部分。你們已經談到了全年減少庫存的問題。您可以為我們提供有關該庫存的構成的任何顏色嗎？是更多與記憶體相關還是與鑄造邏輯相關？我知道您不想透露具體細節，但您認為今年上半年的庫存下降在哪裡？

Yes, Tom, it's -- the rate of decline in memory as we went into '23 was pretty dramatic, and we ended up taking more inventory than we needed specifically for memory. So there's a bigger component of it targeted at memory and as memory recovers, the inventory will come down. Thanks for the question.

是的，湯姆，當我們進入 23 世紀時，記憶力下降的速度相當驚人，我們最終獲得的庫存量超出了我們專門用於記憶力的需求。因此，它有一個更大的組成部分是針對記憶體的，隨著記憶體的恢復，庫存將會下降。謝謝你的提問。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議也結束了。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。