科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research September 2023 Financial Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加泛林研究 2023 年 9 月金融電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在將會議交給公司副總裁、首席會計官和投資者關係蒂娜·科雷亞 (Tina Correia)。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加泛林研究季度財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer；執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the September 2023 quarter and our outlook for the December 2023 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 01:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享商業環境的概述，並將回顧 2023 年 9 月季度的財務業績和 2023 年 12 月季度的前景。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於下午 01:00 後發布。太平洋時間今天下午。新聞稿以及今天電話會議附帶的簡報幻燈片也可以在該公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們 SEC 公開文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中隨附的幻燈片以了解更多資訊。除非另有說明，今天對我們財務表現的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整可以在簡報中的隨附幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 03:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

這次電話會議預計持續到下午 03:00。太平洋時間。今天下午晚些時候，我們的網站將提供此次電話會議的重播。然後，我會將電話轉交給提姆。

Thanks, Tina, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝蒂娜，歡迎大家。

Lam produced solid results for the September quarter. Revenues came in above the midpoint of our guidance. And for the second quarter in a row, our gross margin, operating margin and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of the guidance range. Our revenue and earnings per share are expected to improve further in the December quarter, demonstrating our continued strong execution in a cyclically soft calendar year 2023.

Lam 在九月季度取得了穩健的業績。收入高於我們指導的中點。我們的毛利率、營業利潤率和每股盈餘連續第二季超過指引範圍的高端。我們的營收和每股盈餘預計將在 12 月季度進一步改善，這表明我們在 2023 年週期性疲軟的日曆年中繼續保持強勁的執行力。

Turning to the wafer fabrication equipment environment. We see spending for calendar year 2023 in the $80 billion range. The adjustment in WFE from our prior view of mid-$70 billion is based on updated checks on non-Lam-related markets, as well as restricted fab spending in China. It does not change our assumptions on Lam revenues for the year. On the device segment side, NAND weakness continued in the quarter as customers adjusted spending levels down and further lowered utilizations to drive a faster path to supply-demand balance.

轉向晶圓製造設備環境。我們預計 2023 年的支出將達到 800 億美元。 WFE 從我們之前預期的 700 億美元左右的調整是基於對非 Lam 相關市場的最新檢查以及中國晶圓廠支出的限制。這不會改變我們對 Lam 今年收入的假設。在設備領域方面，由於客戶調整了支出水準並進一步降低了利用率，以加快實現供需平衡，因此本季 NAND 繼續疲軟。

While NAND WFE is down significantly in 2023, supply actions are starting to have a positive impact. Customers have recently indicated that pricing trends have stabilized and NAND bit demand has increased from high single digits percent year-over-year growth to high teens as certain consumer markets are demonstrating greater demand elasticity and per unit content.

雖然 NAND WFE 在 2023 年大幅下降，但供應行動已開始產生正面影響。客戶最近表示，由於某些消費市場表現出更大的需求彈性和單位內容量，定價趨勢已經穩定，NAND 位需求已從同比增長的高個位數增長到高兩位數。

DRAM spending is modestly up relative to our prior view, driven by better trends in high-bandwidth memory related demand as well as further upside from domestic China customers. Meanwhile, the foundry/logic segment is down slightly versus our prior baseline due to weakness in both leading edge and non-China-based mature node investments.

受高頻寬記憶體相關需求趨勢改善以及中國國內客戶進一步上漲的推動，DRAM 支出相對於我們先前的觀點略有上升。同時，由於領先和非中國成熟節點投資均疲軟，代工/邏輯領域較我們先前的基準略有下降。

Looking forward, it remains hard to call the timing and pace of WFE recovery, but we believe Lam is in a good position to benefit from both cyclical and structural drivers of demand. When memory investments begin to recover from current cyclical lows, we expect to see early benefits in our installed base business as fab utilization improves, driving increased demand for spares, services and equipment upgrades. Longer term, Lam's growth story is strong and is underpinned by the fact that etch and deposition are fundamental enablers of higher performance, more scalable semiconductor device architectures. To address emerging technical challenges, customers continue to identify new innovative use cases for vertical scaling. Backside power delivery is a good example as it is an emerging device architecture being developed to address the scaling limitations of traditional back-end-of-line integration schemes. Etch and deposition play a critical role in enabling this transition and backside power delivery is expected to add close to $1 billion of incremental SAM opportunity for Lam per 100,000 monthly wafer starts.

展望未來，仍然很難預測 WFE 復甦的時機和速度，但我們相信 Lam 處於有利位置，可以從需求的周期性和結構性驅動因素中受益。當記憶體投資開始從目前的週期性低點恢復時，我們預計隨著晶圓廠利用率的提高，我們的已安裝基礎業務將獲得早期效益，從而推動對備件、服務和設備升級的需求增加。從長遠來看，Lam 的成長勢頭強勁，其基礎是蝕刻和沈積是更高性能、更可擴展的半導體裝置架構的基本推動因素。為了應對新出現的技術挑戰，客戶不斷尋找垂直擴展的新創新用例。背面供電就是一個很好的例子，因為它是一種新興的設備架構，旨在解決傳統後端整合方案的擴展限制。蝕刻和沈積在實現這一轉變中發揮關鍵作用，預計每月每 100,000 片晶圓啟動，背面電力傳輸將為 Lam 增加近 10 億美元的 SAM 機會。

Today, power interconnects increasingly compete for space in the complex back end of line wiring while also taking up considerable area at the transistor level. Additionally, managing power loss between the external source and the transistors is increasingly challenging due to resistance. A backside power delivery architecture enables the separation of the signal and power delivery path to free up valuable way for real estate and minimize power loss.

如今，電源互連越來越多地爭奪複雜後端線路佈線中的空間，同時也在晶體管級佔據相當大的面積。此外，由於電阻的原因，管理外部電源和電晶體之間的功率損耗變得越來越具有挑戰性。背面供電架構能夠將訊號和供電路徑分離，從而為空間騰出寶貴的空間並最大限度地減少功率損耗。

Furthermore, customers are implementing changes, including the use of thicker metal layers in order to efficiently integrate backside power with their advanced packaging schemes. New etch and deposition capabilities are needed and the trends are favorable for Lam. Due to our existing strength in back-end processes, we have been able to quickly extend the capabilities of our copper electroplating and PECVD deposition products to address the throughput and productivity requirements of backside power applications.

此外，客戶正在實施變革，包括使用更厚的金屬層，以便有效地將背面電源與其先進的封裝方案整合。需要新的蝕刻和沈積能力，這一趨勢對 Lam 有利。憑藉我們在後端製程方面的現有優勢，我們能夠快速擴展銅電鍍和 PECVD 沉積產品的功能，以滿足背面電源應用的吞吐量和生產率要求。

We now have tool of record positions at a leading foundry logic customer and expect these positions to continue to grow. As we approach the end of the year, our installed base is closing in on 90,000 chambers. As semiconductor manufacturing is becoming increasingly complex, our customer support business group is seeing more opportunities to deliver innovation, productivity and yield enhancement.

我們現在在一家領先的代工邏輯客戶中擁有創紀錄的職位，並預計這些職位將繼續成長。隨著年底的臨近，我們的暗房安裝數量接近 90,000 個。隨著半導體製造變得越來越複雜，我們的客戶支援業務團隊看到了更多提供創新、生產力和產量提高的機會。

In the September quarter, we expanded our equipment intelligence offering at multiple customers to include the first big data application of high-resolution optical emission spectroscopy, or OES. The equipment intelligence capabilities we are delivering with OES are highly differentiated due to the complexity of collecting and interpreting plasma spectra in manufacturing over time and across a large fleet of tools. Our solution allows customers to resolve performance issues that would otherwise remain undetected. Recently, our CSBG team also put the industry's first collaborative maintenance robot, or cobot, into a production fab and a leading customer. Cobots helped execute complex maintenance tasks with precision and reliability, leading to improved tool-to-tool performance matching and higher equipment availability.

在九月季度，我們為多個客戶擴展了設備智慧產品，其中包括高解析度光學發射光譜（OES）的第一個大數據應用。由於在製造過程中隨著時間的推移和大量工具收集和解釋等離子體光譜的複雜性，我們透過 OES 提供的設備智慧功能具有很大的差異性。我們的解決方案使客戶能夠解決原本無法偵測到的效能問題。最近，我們的 CSBG 團隊也將業界第一台協作維護機器人（cobot）投入生產工廠和領先客戶。協作機器人可協助精確可靠地執行複雜的維護任務，從而改善工具間的效能匹配並提高設備可用性。

Also, we believe cobots as a new service offering can play an important role in addressing anticipated skilled labor shortages as semiconductor manufacturing expands and becomes more regionalized. Overall, we see tremendous vectors of growth ahead for the semiconductor industry and for Lam.

此外，我們相信，隨著半導體製造業的擴張和區域化程度的提高，協作機器人作為一種新的服務產品，可以在解決預期的熟練勞動力短缺問題方面發揮重要作用。總體而言，我們看到半導體產業和 Lam 未來的巨大成長空間。

Scaling and complexity challenges are driving multiple inflections for 3D architectures, and, in turn, greater etch and deposition intensity. Lam has a strong track record of execution, and we are committed to making the strategic investments needed to position the company to outperform as the industry and our markets grow.

規模化和複雜性挑戰正在推動 3D 架構的多重變化，進而推動更高的蝕刻和沈積強度。 Lam 擁有良好的執行記錄，我們致力於進行必要的策略性投資，使公司能夠隨著行業和市場的成長而跑贏大盤。

Over the last 2 years, we've been laying the groundwork for greater scale and efficiency with the expansion of our manufacturing, supply chain and warehousing capabilities in Asia in order to better serve our customers in that region. We are also increasing our R&D efforts to extend our technology differentiation and expand our product portfolio to capture new inflection-driven applications. While the current business environment remains challenging, secular industry trends play extremely well to land strengths, and we are excited by the breadth of opportunities we see ahead for the company.

在過去的兩年裡，我們一直在擴大在亞洲的製造、供應鏈和倉儲能力，為擴大規模和提高效率奠定基礎，以便更好地服務該地區的客戶。我們也加強研發力度，以擴大我們的技術差異化並擴大我們的產品組合，以捕捉新的變化驅動的應用。儘管當前的商業環境仍然充滿挑戰，但長期的行業趨勢對土地優勢發揮著極好的作用，我們對公司未來面臨的廣泛機會感到興奮。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Doug.

謝謝，我現在將其交給道格。

Excellent. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today.

出色的。謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入電話會議。

We delivered strong results in the September 2023 quarter. Our revenue came in above the midpoint of our guided range in gross margin, operating income and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance. We're pleased with the company's execution during a year where memory WFE investment has declined by unprecedented amounts.

我們在 2023 年 9 月季度取得了強勁的業績。我們的收入高於指引範圍的中點，毛利率、營業收入和每股盈餘均超過指引範圍的高端。我們對公司在記憶體 WFE 投資出現前所未有的下降的一年中的執行情況感到滿意。

Let's look at the details of our September quarter financial results. Revenue for the September quarter was $3.48 billion, which was up 9% from the prior quarter and down more than 30% from a year ago. Our deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $1.69 billion, which was a decrease of approximately $150 million from the June quarter mainly related to revenue recognized tied to customer advanced payments. We continue to have a higher deferred revenue balance versus historic levels given these advanced payments. We expect to recognize revenue in the December quarter for a portion of these deposits, which is comprehended in our guidance. Within calendar year 2024, I believe the deferred revenue balance will trend to more normalized levels.

讓我們來看看九月份季度財務業績的詳細資訊。 9 月季度的營收為 34.8 億美元，季增 9%，年減超過 30%。季度末我們的遞延收入餘額為 16.9 億美元，比 6 月季度減少約 1.5 億美元，主要與客戶預付款相關的收入確認有關。考慮到這些預付款，我們的遞延收入餘額仍高於歷史水準。我們預計將在 12 月季度確認部分存款的收入，這已包含在我們的指導中。在 2024 年內，我相信遞延收入餘額將趨於更正常化的水平。

Let's now look at the segments. From a segment perspective, September quarter systems revenue in memory was 38%, which is an increase from the prior quarter level of 27%. The growth in the memory segment was driven by DRAM, which increased sequentially coming in at 23% of systems revenue compared with 9% that we saw in the June quarter.

現在讓我們來看看各個部分。從細分市場來看，9月季度記憶體系統營收為38%，較上一季27%的水準有所成長。記憶體領域的成長是由 DRAM 推動的，DRAM 佔系統收入的比例連續成長，佔系統收入的 23%，而我們在 6 月季度看到的比例為 9%。

As we've noted in prior quarters, nonvolatile memory spending is at historic lows in 2023 and for the September quarter, the segment represented 15% of systems revenue, which was down from the 18% that we saw last quarter. These spending levels in NAND are at dollar levels we have not seen since planar NAND was the predominant technology.

正如我們在前幾個季度所指出的，非揮發性記憶體支出在2023 年處於歷史低位，並且在9 月的季度中，該細分市場佔系統收入的15%，低於我們上季度看到的18%。自從平面 NAND 成為主導技術以來，NAND 的支出水準達到了我們從未見過的水平。

The Foundry segment represented 36% of our systems revenue lower than the percentage concentration in the June quarter of 47%. The decrease is related to timing of leading-edge investments within calendar year 2023. We performed well in this segment during the year, with this quarter spending coming mainly from mature node customers. And finally, the Logic and Other segment was 26% of our systems revenue in the September quarter, which was flat with the prior quarter level. Investments in this segment were heavily focused in the specialty device areas, including sensors, analog and power devices.

代工部門占我們系統收入的 36%，低於 6 月季度的 47%。這一下降與 2023 日曆年內領先投資的時機有關。這一年我們在這一領域表現良好，本季支出主要來自成熟節點客戶。最後，邏輯和其他部分占我們九月季度系統收入的 26%，與上一季水準持平。該領域的投資主要集中在特種裝置領域，包括感測器、類比和功率裝置。

I'll now discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at a high watermark of 48%, up from 26% in the prior quarter. The majority of the China revenue this quarter was from domestic Chinese customers, and we currently expect we will have another strong China geographic concentration profile in the December quarter is low. Our next largest geographic region concentration, [was] Korea had 16% of revenue in the September quarter and that compares with the 24% that we saw in June.

我現在將討論我們總收入的地區組成。中國地區的佔比高達 48%，高於上一季的 26%。本季的大部分中國收入來自中國國內客戶，我們目前預計 12 月季度我們將再次出現強勁的中國地理集中度較低的情況。我們第二大的地理區域集中度是韓國，其 9 月季度的營收佔 16%，而 6 月的營收佔 24%。

Our Customer Support Business Group generated revenue in the September quarter, totaling approximately $1.4 billion, which was down 5% from the June quarter and 25% lower than the September quarter and calendar year 2022. Memory customers continue to operate their fabs at very low utilization rates and customers are holding off on upgrading tools until there's more digestion of the outstanding inventory that is in the industry.

我們的客戶支援業務集團在9 月季度創造了收入，總計約14 億美元，比6 月季度下降了5%，比9 月季度和2022 年下降了25%。記憶體客戶繼續以非常低的利用率運作其晶圓廠利率和客戶都推遲升級工具，直到產業內的未清庫存得到更多消化。

The specialty technology market has been a bright spot this year and we see that part of our business up year-over-year as we close calendar year 2023. Spares and the Reliant product line continues to be the two largest components of CSBG.

專業技術市場是今年的亮點，隨著 2023 年結束，我們看到這部分業務逐年成長。備件和 Reliant 產品線仍然是 CSBG 的兩個最大組成部分。

Let me now turn to the gross margin performance. The September quarter came in at 47.9%, above our guided range and higher than the June quarter level of 45.7%. Our strong gross margin performance compared to the prior quarter was driven primarily by favorable customer mix. We've improved elements of our cost structure during the year and are on track with our plan to improve gross margin from the March quarter level by approximately 1 percentage point as we exit calendar year 2023.

現在讓我談談毛利率表現。 9 月季度的成長率為 47.9%，高於我們的指導範圍，也高於 6 月季度 45.7% 的水平。與上一季相比，我們強勁的毛利率表現主要得益於有利的客戶組合。我們在這一年中改進了成本結構的各個要素，並正在按計劃實施，在 2023 日曆年結束時，將毛利率較 3 月份季度水準提高約 1 個百分點。

September quarter operating expenses came in at $622 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $590 million. R&D as a percentage of spending was somewhat higher versus the June quarter, coming in at over 68% of our spending. The increased investment was focused on key technology inflections and development engagements with our customers. We will continue to invest in programs across multiple market segments to support our long-term strategic objectives for continued company outperformance.

9 月季度營運支出為 6.22 億美元，高於上一季的 5.9 億美元。研發佔支出的百分比比 6 月季度有所提高，佔支出的 68% 以上。增加的投資主要集中在關鍵技術的變化以及與客戶的開發合作。我們將繼續投資於多個細分市場的項目，以支持我們的長期策略目標，以實現公司持續出色的績效。

Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.1% higher than the June quarter level of 27.3% and more than 100 basis points over the high end of our guidance because of that strong gross margin performance.

由於強勁的毛利率表現，本季的營業利潤率比 6 月季度的 27.3% 高出 30.1%，比我們指導的上限高出 100 個基點以上。

Non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 13.4%, in line with our expectations. Our estimate for the December 2023 quarter as well as for calendar year 2024 is for the tax rate to be in the low to mid-teens range. Other income and expense for the September quarter came in at $7 million in income compared with $7 million in expense in the June quarter. The favorable fluctuation in OI&E was due to a variety of factors, including rising interest rates, generating income on our cash balance. OI&E will continue to be subject to market-related fluctuations that will cause some level of volatility quarter-by-quarter.

本季非 GAAP 稅率為 13.4%，符合我們的預期。我們對 2023 年 12 月季度以及 2024 年日曆年的估計稅率將在青少年範圍內。九月季度的其他收入和支出為 700 萬美元，而六月季度的支出為 700 萬美元。 OI&E 的有利波動是由於多種因素造成的，包括利率上升、現金餘額產生收入。 OI&E 將繼續受到市場相關波動的影響，這將導致逐季度出現一定程度的波動。

Let me now pave the capital return side of things. We allocated approximately $830 million to open market share repurchases and paid $230 million in dividends in the September quarter. I'll highlight that in September, we announced a 16% growth in our dividend, in line with our plan to deliver disciplined annual dividend growth.

現在讓我來談談資本回報方面的事情。我們分配了約 8.3 億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在 9 月季度支付了 2.3 億美元的股息。我要強調的是，9 月份，我們宣布股息成長 16%，這符合我們實現有紀律的年度股息成長的計畫。

Since paying our first dividend in 2014, we have now raised the dividend amount 9x. We returned over 120% of free cash flow in the quarter and we have $2.7 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

自 2014 年支付第一次股息以來，我們現在已將股息金額提高了 9 倍。本季我們返還了超過 120% 的自由現金流，董事會授權的股票回購計畫還剩 27 億美元。

Calendar year-to-date, we've returned 83% of our free cash flow to shareholders. September quarter diluted earnings per share was $6.85 over the high end of our guided range. Diluted share count was 133 million shares, on track with our expectations and down from the June quarter.

今年迄今，我們已將 83% 的自由現金流返還給股東。 9 月季度稀釋後每股收益為 6.85 美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。稀釋後股票數量為 1.33 億股，符合我們的預期，但較 6 月季度有所下降。

Let me pivot to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the September quarter totaled $5.2 billion down from $5.6 billion in the June quarter. The main driver of the cash decrease was obviously our capital return activity. I just mentioned, we also purchased buildings at our company headquarters as well as our Bay Area, California factory for approximately $250 million, retiring the leases that were on the balance sheet. The (inaudible) cash was somewhat offset by improvement in day sales outstanding, which were 73 days in the September quarter, down from the 80 days that we saw in the June quarter.

讓我轉向資產負債表。截至 9 月季末，我們的現金和短期投資總額為 52 億美元，低於 6 月季度的 56 億美元。現金減少的主要驅動因素顯然是我們的資本回饋活動。我剛才提到，我們也以大約 2.5 億美元購買了公司總部的建築物以及加州灣區的工廠，取消了資產負債表上的租賃。 （聽不清楚）現金在一定程度上被未償還日銷售額的改善所抵消，9 月份季度的未償還日銷售額為 73 天，低於 6 月份季度的 80 天。

Inventory turns were flat with the prior quarter level of 1.5x. We continue to work to bring our inventory down. But as we've noted in prior quarter, we expect this to occur at a slower pace than we've done in the past. Our noncash expenses for the September quarter included approximately $67 million for equity compensation, $76 million in depreciation and $14 million in amortization. Capital expenditures for the September quarter came in at $77 million, which was flat with the June quarter.

庫存週轉率與上季 1.5 倍持平。我們將繼續努力降低庫存。但正如我們在上一季所指出的，我們預計這種情況發生的速度將比過去慢。我們九月季度的非現金支出包括約 6,700 萬美元的股權補償、7,600 萬美元的折舊和 1,400 萬美元的攤提。 9月份季度的資本支出為7,700萬美元，與6月份季度持平。

Spending in September was primarily centered on product development activities, and lab expansions in the United States and Asia. We ended the September quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was a decrease of 200 people from the prior quarter.

9 月的支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的產品開發活動以及實驗室擴建。截至 9 月季度末，我們擁有約 17,200 名正式全職員工，比上一季減少了 200 人。

Most of this decrease is related to the restructuring actions we took earlier in the calendar year with the timing of the headcount reduction occurring in the September quarter.

這項減少大部分與我們在今年稍早採取的重組行動有關，裁員時間發生在九月季度。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December 2023 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 47%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This level of gross margin reflects a continued favorable customer mix, albeit not quite as favorable as we saw in September. Operating margin of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

現在讓我談談 2023 年 12 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。我們預計營收為 37 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元。毛利率47%，上下浮動1個百分點。這一毛利率水準反映了持續有利的客戶組合，儘管不如我們在 9 月看到的那麼有利。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。

The operating expenses embedded in this guidance increased from the September level due to growth in R&D. I'd also just mention that the June 2024 quarter will be higher as it includes an extra week in the fiscal quarter, which occurs every few years. It's going to be a 14-week quarter in March. And finally, earnings per share of $7, plus or minus $0.75 based on a share count of approximately 132 million shares.

由於研發的成長，本指引中包含的營運費用較 9 月的水準有所增加。我還想提一下，2024 年 6 月的季度將會更高，因為它包括每隔幾年出現一次的財政季度的額外一周。 3 月將是為期 14 週的季度。最後，每股收益為 7 美元，根據約 1.32 億股的股數計算，正負 0.75 美元。

With our December quarter guidance, we see solid performance in both revenue and profitability. Lam is delivering strong financial results and technology leadership to our customers as we develop solutions for the next industry inflections.

根據我們 12 月季度的指引，我們看到收入和獲利能力均表現穩健。隨著我們為下一個行業拐點開發解決方案，林先生正在為我們的客戶提供強勁的財務業績和技術領先地位。

And before I wrap up, I'd just like to mention two things as you think about modeling our business into 2024. The first is that we're currently experiencing favorable customer mix that may not continue at the same level going into next year. This may create near-term headwinds for gross margin. Second, given all the opportunities we see in long-term technology collections like data all around, dry resist, advanced packaging, changing metallization schemes and continued evolution of other 3D structures like DRAM, 2024 may be an R&D spending growth year to take advantage of these future opportunities that we see.

在結束之前，當您考慮將我們的業務建模到 2024 年時，我想提兩件事。第一是我們目前正在經歷有利的客戶組合，但到明年可能不會繼續保持相同的水平。這可能會對毛利率帶來短期阻力。其次，考慮到我們在長期技術集合中看到的所有機會，例如全方位數據、乾抗蝕劑、先進封裝、不斷變化的金屬化方案以及DRAM 等其他3D 結構的持續發展，2024 年可能是研發支出成長的一年，可以利用我們所看到的這些未來機會。

As a result, it's possible that historic leverage we've delivered takes a temporary pause. We will obviously continue to aggressively drive the operational efficiencies that we always have, and our longer-term profitability objectives remain unchanged. Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

因此，我們提供的歷史槓桿作用可能會暫時暫停。顯然，我們將繼續積極提高我們一直以來的營運效率，並且我們的長期獲利目標保持不變。接線員，我們準備好的發言到此結束。提姆和我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And today's first question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

I had a question on China. Obviously, you've had a huge second half in China. Doug, it sounds like you think it's going to remain pretty strong in December. It sounds like maybe it's going to remain close to 50% of the mix. But it sounds like you're a little worried about it -- sorry, not worry, but you think that it could actually come off a bit during the first half of '24. Can you talk about that? What are the puts and the takes. I ask because if you sort of back into where they're running in terms of WFE, they're running probably in the high 20s, if I just take the back half of the year. So I'm wondering if that can sustain.

我有一個關於中國的問題。顯然，你在中國度過了一段精彩的下半場。道格，聽起來您認為 12 月的情況會相當強勁。聽起來它可能會保持接近 50% 的比例。但聽起來你有點擔心——抱歉，不用擔心，但你認為它實際上可能會在 24 年上半年有所下降。你能談談嗎？賣出和賣出是什麼？我問這個問題是因為如果你回到他們在 WFE 方面的運行情況，如果我只考慮今年下半年的話，他們可能會運行在 20 多歲左右。所以我想知道這種情況是否能持續下去。

Yes, Tim, let me start on that, and then I'll let Doug add. I think that when we think about China investment. Clearly, it has been strong as we've messaged. Part of the mix story and why it's such a high percentage of our mix right now also has to do with the fact that other customers not spending. And we all know that memory and NAND in particular, is a extreme lows. As we look into next year, and it's a bit too early for us to give 2024 WFE, so we're not going to do that.

是的，提姆，讓我開始，然後我會讓道格補充。我認為當我們考慮中國投資時。顯然，正如我們所傳達的訊息，它一直很強勁。混合故事的一部分以及為什麼它現在在我們的混合中所佔的比例如此之高也與其他客戶不消費有關。我們都知道內存，特別是 NAND，正處於極端低谷。當我們展望明年時，現在給出 2024 年 WFE 有點太早了，所以我們不會這樣做。

We think about longer-term China and this overall move towards regionalization that you see people investing for long-term demand in mature nodes. And so we're not going to comment on whether we think it's sustainable in the first half or the second half of next year. But long term, we do believe that there's rolling demand in mature nodes that will drive China investment in a rather sustainable manner for the next several years.

我們考慮長期的中國和區域化的整體趨勢，你會看到人們在成熟節點上投資於長期需求。因此，我們不會評論明年上半年或下半年是否可持續。但從長遠來看，我們確實相信成熟節點的滾動需求將在未來幾年以相當永續的方式推動中國投資。

And yes, Tim, just to parse my comments a little bit. I said we believe China will continue to be strong. But I also said, albeit not quite as strong perhaps as we saw in September. And as Tim alluded to, the China investment is not going away. I don't know, if it's up, down, sideways next year, but it's not going away. They're investing for opportunities in the market that they see. I think we're hopeful the rest of the market begins to recover at some point because it's at pretty low points, and that will mitigate the China mix to a certain extent.

是的，提姆，只是稍微解析一下我的評論。我說我們相信中國會繼續強大。但我也說過，儘管可能不像我們在 9 月看到的那麼強勁。正如提姆所提到的，對中國的投資不會消失。我不知道明年它是否會上漲、下跌或橫盤，但它不會消失。他們正在投資他們所看到的市場機會。我認為我們希望其他市場在某個時候開始復甦，因為它處於相當低的水平，這將在一定程度上緩解中國的影響。

Can you just talk also your major peer that makes litho talked this morning about there being a handful of fabs now with these new restrictions that they can't ship into. It's predominantly a litho thing, but can you just talk about sort of where we are in terms of restrictions? And then also, when you're talking about that, what's the commonality in the etch and depth tool set for, let's say, 28-nanometer versus, let's say, 7-nanometer because technically, you can buy tools for 28-nanometer and you can use them to pattern 7-nanometer from a depth etch point of view. It's not as efficient, but you can do it. Can you just talk about that?

您能否也談談您的主要同行，他們今天早上談到了現在有一些晶圓廠受到了這些新限制，他們無法發貨。這主要是光刻的事情，但你能談談我們在限制方面的情況嗎？然後，當您談論這個問題時，28 奈米與 7 奈米的蝕刻和深度工具集有何共同點，因為從技術上講，您可以購買 28 奈米和您可以使用它們從深度蝕刻的角度對7 奈米進行圖案化。雖然效率不高，但你可以做到。能簡單談談嗎？

Yes, Tim, I guess what I'd say is we've reviewed the details of the regulations and our early assessment is we don't see any material impact to our forecasted business. Now some of that has to do with the fact that we've already we've already been quite restricted into what we can ship into China relative to technology engagement. And I think to your other point about tools being purchased one node and used for another. I mean that's something that obviously we're we have to follow very strict regulations to adhere to the US regulation. So I don't know that, that's something that might be quite as common as what you're saying, but it's something that we make sure that we're fully compliant.

是的，提姆，我想我想說的是，我們已經審查了法規的細節，我們的早期評估是，我們沒有看到對我們預測業務的任何重大影響。現在，這在一定程度上與這樣一個事實有關：我們已經在技術參與方面對我們可以運往中國的產品受到了相當的限制。我認為您的另一點是關於在一個節點購買工具並用於另一個節點的工具。我的意思是，顯然我們必須遵循非常嚴格的法規才能遵守美國的法規。所以我不知道，這可能和你所說的一樣常見，但我們確保我們完全合規。

And our next question today comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

On CSPG, down 8% year-over-year to the first 9 months of the year, it did decline, as you mentioned, 5% sequentially. I assume the sequential decline was driven by continued utilization declines by your customers, especially your NAND customers, as you pointed out. You did talk about improving bit shipments for these customers in the second half of the year, pricing stabilization. It sort of seems to be reflective of this sort of steadily improving supply-demand environment.

就CSPG而言，今年前9個月年減8%，正如您所提到的，環比確實下降了5%。正如您所指出的，我認為連續下降是由於您的客戶，尤其是 NAND 客戶的使用率持續下降。您確實談到了下半年改善這些客戶的比特出貨量以及穩定價格。這似乎反映了這種穩定改善的供需環境。

So does the team believe that utilizations have bottomed across your memory and foundry logic customers? Have they started to at least stabilize at current levels?

那麼，團隊是否認為您的記憶體和代工邏輯客戶的使用率已觸底？它們是否已經開始至少穩定在目前的水平？

Yes, Harlan, what we said was that those were the comments that, obviously, our customers are out talking about their business. There's clearly some time lag from when they start to see improvement in bit demand and in pricing before they start to, I think, bring some of that fab utilization back online. Our CSPG business, as we said, is affected by a couple of things. One is clearly, fab utilizations are at levels that we really haven't seen in terms of how much capacity has been taken offline in the NAND space. And that's affected spares. But also when you don't need to add bits and you're really trying to conserve your own spending, there's been quite a significant delay in technology upgrades to the installed base.

是的，哈倫，我們所說的是，這些評論顯然是我們的客戶在談論他們的業務。我認為，從他們開始看到比特需求和定價的改善到開始恢復部分晶圓廠利用率之前，顯然存在一段時間滯後。正如我們所說，我們的 CSPG 業務受到一些因素的影響。很明顯，從 NAND 領域有多少產能下線來看，晶圓廠的利用率確實達到了我們從未見過的水平。這就是受影響的備用零件。但當您不需要添加位並且您確實想節省自己的支出時，已安裝基礎的技術升級也會出現相當大的延遲。

You have that -- those tools offline, you're not really upgrading them at this point. And so that has also hit the CSBG business in terms of our upgrades component. We anticipate that as the memory of business starts to improve, which is what seems to be the leading indicators of playing to, we would think spares would start to come back and the technology upgrades will be done because in that next leg of growth, customers are going to want to be able to scale on that next technology node for their own efficiency of manufacturing. So we're not seeing that yet, but the leading signs are that it will come.

你擁有那些離線的工具，此時你並沒有真正升級它們。因此，就我們的升級元件而言，這也對 CSBG 業務造成了影響。我們預計，隨著業務記憶開始改善（這似乎是遊戲的領先指標），我們認為備件將開始回歸，並且技術升級將完成，因為在下一個增長階段，客戶希望能夠在下一個技術節點上進行擴展，以提高自己的製造效率。所以我們還沒有看到這一點，但主要跡象表明它將會到來。

And then you talked about this on the last earnings call, but you've got a strong position in stack chip architectures, advanced packaging. You guys have talked about this segment as being $200 million per year for Lam potentially with the past $1 billion business. On HPM, specifically, where you have very strong share, right, which began to HPM 2 to 3 to 4. I think that there's a doubling of TS fees per chip, every new generation of HPM, the DRAM stock hype is also growing from like $8 to like $24 at some point.

然後您在上次財報電話會議上談到了這一點，但您在堆疊晶片架構和先進封裝方面擁有強大的地位。你們曾談論過林先生在過去 10 億美元的業務中每年可能會獲得 2 億美元的收入。具體來說，在HPM 方面，您擁有非常強大的份額，對吧，從HPM 2 開始到3 到4。我認為每顆晶片的TS 費用都會翻倍，每一代新的HPM，DRAM 股票的炒作也從在某個時候喜歡 8 美元到喜歡 24 美元。

So is this all is sort of a very strong tailwind for the team. Do you guys anticipate strong growth next year for your HPM/advanced packaging business and some of your DRAM customers are also talking about HBM driving 10% of overall industry DRAM wafer starts. Is that how you guys are seeing it as well?

所以這一切對團隊來說都是一種非常強大的推動力。你們是否預計明年你們的 HPM/先進封裝業務將強勁成長？你們的一些 DRAM 客戶也在談論 HBM 推動整個產業 DRAM 晶圓開工量的 10%。你們也是這麼看的嗎？

We'll let them talk about how much it affects their business. But from what it affects ours, I mean everything that you just said, I think we're generally aligned with, which is trying to drive performance generally leads to more equipment needs and more sophisticated equipment needs. And so we do see HBM, I talked about the uptick in our business that we've already seen from it.

我們會讓他們談論這對他們的業務有多大影響。但從它對我們的影響來看，我的意思是你剛才所說的一切，我認為我們總體上是一致的，即試圖推動性能通常會導致更多的設備需求和更複雜的設備需求。所以我們確實看到了 HBM，我談到了我們已經從中看到的業務成長。

This appears to be an area right now that is still undersupplied, and we're seeing strong demand. And so I don't anticipate, given the interest in AI that you hear so broadly in the industry right now that our HBM business wouldn't grow pretty strongly next year.

目前這似乎是一個供應不足的領域，但我們看到了強勁的需求。因此，鑑於目前業界對人工智慧的興趣如此廣泛，我預計我們的 HBM 業務明年不會出現相當強勁的成長。

To characterize our overall advanced packaging, you mentioned a couple of hundred million. I mean, we basically said that we think that this could be a market in which our revenues actually exceeded $1 billion over the next -- sometime in the next years. And so it is a rapidly growing part of our business and one in which we have quite high share.

為了描述我們整體先進封裝的特點，您提到了數億。我的意思是，我們基本上是說，我們認為在未來幾年的某個時候，我們的收入實際上可能會超過 10 億美元。因此，這是我們業務中快速成長的一部分，我們在其中擁有相當高的份額。

And our next question today comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

今天我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Tim, my first question is on the equipment spending. I know you guys don't guide WFE until January, but your positive peer was talking about maybe a softer first half and then things picking up into 2025. And curious if you're seeing a similar profile where first half is more in like a Lamb and out like a lion.

提姆，我的第一個問題是關於設備支出。我知道你們直到1 月份才對WFE 進行指導，但你們積極的同行正在談論上半年可能會比較疲軟，然後到2025 年情況會有所好轉。並且很好奇您是否看到類似的情況，其中上半年更像是羔羊，像獅子一樣出入。

Like a Lam, likely a lion. I think that it's -- what we would say and without guiding 2024 at this point, I think it is reasonable to my prior comments that I think spending will come back cautiously. And so even though we may be seeing some of the leading indicators in some of our markets, I think people going to want to see sustainability of that condition before we start to see significant spending. So if we were to think and I believe that the general feeling is that (inaudible) '25 is probably -- I mean, a lot of fabs opening, a lot of a demand out in that time frame. It's not unreasonable to think that you would ramp towards that as you move through 2024.

像羔羊，可能是獅子。我認為這就是我們要說的，在目前沒有對 2024 年進行指導的情況下，我認為我之前的評論是合理的，即我認為支出將謹慎回歸。因此，儘管我們可能會在一些市場看到一些領先指標，但我認為在我們開始看到大量支出之前，人們會希望看到這種情況的可持續性。因此，如果我們思考並且我相信普遍的感覺是（聽不清楚）'25 可能 - 我的意思是，在那個時間範圍內，有很多晶圓廠開業，有很多需求。相信隨著 2024 年的到來，您會朝著這個目標不斷邁進，這並不是沒有道理的。

And Doug, on the gross margins, are you still guiding to year-over-year growth, but down sequentially because of the mix that you talked about. Can you walk us through which innings are we in terms of the structural gross margin improvement that you guys have been talking about this year?

道格，在毛利率方面，您是否仍然指導同比增長，但由於您談到的混合而連續下降。您能否向我們介紹一下，就您今年一直在談論的結構性毛利率改善而言，我們目前處於哪幾局？

Yes. If you take yourself back to when we're talking about this in the March call, we're at roughly 44% gross margin, and we articulated a view that we would be able to drive a 100 basis point improvement in that from the operational efficiencies that we were undertaking during the year. And I'm super confident that that's absolutely already happened, frankly, and we'll continue to be in a good spot as we exit the year.

是的。如果您回想一下我們在 3 月份的電話會議中討論這一問題時，我們的毛利率約為 44%，並且我們闡明了這樣的觀點：我們將能夠推動運營毛利率提高 100 個基點我們在這一年中所採取的效率。坦白說，我非常有信心這絕對已經發生了，而且在今年結束時我們將繼續處於良好狀態。

Our next question today comes from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen。

I had two of them. First one, either Doug or Tim, I don't know if you guys quantified in the past, you said like the export restriction was a $2 billion impact on your revenue. Is it a way to quantify with the new export restrictions, and I noticed that ALE was added to it, where to quantify the impact in calendar '24 or incremental dollar value? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。第一個，無論是Doug還是Tim，我不知道你們過去是否量化過，你們說出口限制對你們的收入造成了20億美元的影響。這是一種量化新出口限制的方法嗎？我注意到其中增加了 ALE，在哪裡可以量化 24 日曆年的影響或增量美元價值？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Chris. There really was nothing material incrementally in what was clarified, I guess it was yesterday, right? So you're right. When we came into the year, we said $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We got clarification. We could ship a little bit. We took it down to $2 billion. That's still kind of what we see this year and nothing incremental really came out yesterday.

是的，克里斯。澄清的內容確實沒有任何實質內容，我想那是昨天的事，對吧？所以你是對的。當我們進入這一年時，我們說的是 20 億至 25 億美元。我們得到了澄清。我們可以運送一點。我們將其削減至 20 億美元。這仍然是我們今年看到的情況，昨天並沒有真正出現任何增量。

The reason for that, Krish, is that in many of those cases, while specific tools might have been now or technology is now called out, they were already the types of tools that were used to produce the technologies that were below the limits that were already allowed. So we had already recognized that in our initial statement.

克里什，這樣做的原因是，在許多情況下，雖然現在可能已經有了特定的工具或現在已經提出了技術，但它們已經是用於生產低於限制的技術的工具類型。已經允許了。所以我們在最初的聲明中已經認識到了這一點。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just a follow-up and to ask this question last time, too, kind of like with respect to the whole cryo etch, dielectric etch versus tell announcing a similar product. Can you give us like an update on where you are market-share-wise, on the dialectric etch side? And is the cryo etch having any impact? Because my understanding is cryo etch doe have the throughput, but it's probably a negative from selling number of two for dielectric etch NAND applications. I'm just trying to figure out how to handicap that.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後是後續行動，上次也問這個問題，有點像整個冷凍蝕刻、電介質蝕刻與 Tell 宣布類似產品的情況。您能給我們介紹一下您在辯證蝕刻方面的市場份額方面的最新情況嗎？冷凍蝕刻有什麼影響嗎？因為我的理解是冷凍蝕刻確實具有吞吐量，但對於電介質蝕刻 NAND 應用來說，銷售兩個可能會帶來負面影響。我只是想弄清楚如何阻止它。

Yes. I mean there's no change from what we've said before. I mean Lam is a leader in high aspect ratio etch without a doubt. And I think that also on the last call, I did point out the fact that while a lot has been made of cryo or the very cold etching conditions, this is already standard Lam condition. And so to a certain extent, many as we talk about our business and any impact that you talked about throughput, those are already factored into our commentary. So it's not something that's new to us. And I think that in general, our focus in NAND has been and always will be and memory in general, driving productivity at every technology node that goes into our projected growth outlook that we always talk about.

是的。我的意思是我們之前所說的沒有改變。我的意思是，毫無疑問，Lam 是高深寬比蝕刻領域的領導者。我認為，在最後一次通話中，我確實指出了這樣一個事實，雖然很多都是由低溫或非常冷的蝕刻條件製成的，但這已經是標準的 Lam 條件。因此，在某種程度上，當我們談論我們的業務以及您談論吞吐量的任何影響時，這些都已經納入我們的評論中。所以這對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為，總的來說，我們對 NAND 的關註一直是，而且永遠是對記憶體的關注，推動每個技術節點的生產力，這也是我們經常談論的預期成長前景的一部分。

And our next question today comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about the DRAM uptick that you saw in the quarter. Can you kind of help us just understand qualitatively how much of that is coming from China? How much of that is from advanced packaging? Are you seeing kind of a resumption of technology spending? Just that kind of thing. What are you seeing that's driving that improvement?

我想知道您是否可以談談本季 DRAM 的成長。您能否幫助我們定性地了解其中有多少來自中國？其中有多少來自先進封裝？您是否看到技術支出有所恢復？就是這樣的事情。您認為是什麼推動了這種改進？

I guess, Joe, what I would point to, and I'll let Tim add. Yes, China was a part of it, but it's not all of it. There was an earlier question about, hey, where we at with a hide-bandwidth memory. Yes, it's getting pulled in. I mean customers want it sooner, we can ship. You've got a transition from DDR4 to DDR5 with these new CPUs that are out there. So that also is a little bit of a bright spot. So I guess I'd point to both of those things as part of what we saw in DRAM.

喬，我想我會指出什麼，我會讓蒂姆補充。是的，中國是其中的一部分，但不是全部。早些時候有一個問題是，嘿，我們在隱藏頻寬記憶體方面處於什麼位置。是的，它正在被拉進來。我的意思是客戶想要更快，我們可以發貨。透過這些新的 CPU，您可以從 DDR4 過渡到 DDR5。所以這也是一個亮點。所以我想我會指出這兩件事是我們在 DRAM 中看到的一部分。

Yes. No, I think that's pretty much it. I mean, as we've said before, you also have this transition to higher buy sizes, which ultimately will be a driver of wafer outs and therefore, equipment demand and probably starting to see some of the initial phases of that right now as well.

是的。不，我想差不多就是這樣了。我的意思是，正如我們之前所說，您也會向更高的購買規模過渡，這最終將成為晶圓出貨的驅動因素，因此，設備需求也可能開始看到其中的一些初始階段。

Great. And then in your upfront remarks, Tim, I think you had talked about trailing etch mature node somewhat weaker outside of China. Can you -- is there something there that could be a trend? Or is that just kind of more of a one quarter phenomenon?

偉大的。然後，提姆，在您的前言中，我認為您已經談到了中國以外的落後蝕刻成熟節點的實力稍弱。你能——有什麼東西可以成為趨勢嗎？還是這只是四分之一的現象？

Well, obviously, since we're not guiding future quarters, I mean, I don't -- I think it's just somewhat natural in general. I mean, we've seen in certain segments, very high spend rates as companies have looked to bring on capacity to meet demand in these mature nodes. And our industry goes through digestion phases where those tools have then started going up, and you get output and you sort of figure out whether demand is there, that requires more and it's what makes our investment cycle somewhat lumpy. And I think that's what we're really looking at right now. And if long-term demand, which we believe long-term demand for semiconductors is growing, eventually, you come back and put in more capacity into those fabs as well.

嗯，顯然，由於我們不指導未來幾個季度，我的意思是，我不會——我認為這總體上是很自然的。我的意思是，我們在某些​​細分市場看到了非常高的支出率，因為公司希望增加容量來滿足這些成熟節點的需求。我們的產業經歷了消化階段，這些工具然後開始上升，你得到產出，你就可以弄清楚需求是否存在，這需要更多，這使得我們的投資週期有些不穩定。我認為這就是我們現在真正關注的問題。如果長期需求（我們認為對半導體的長期需求正在成長）最終會回來並向這些晶圓廠投入更多產能。

And our next question today comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a follow-up question to Joe's question on non-China trailing etch. And Tim, I apologize if I missed this, but can you point to any end markets or any device types that's driving the near-term weakness? And can you remind us how big or small of a market, this is for you guys today?

我對喬關於非中國尾隨蝕刻的問題有一個後續問題。提姆，如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是您能否指出導致近期疲軟的任何終端市場或任何設備類型？您能提醒我們今天對你們來說市場有多大或多小嗎？

Toshi, I'll take it and then let Tim at on. It's a broad set of customers investing when you look at this, the specialty nodes. I mean, it's across multiple customers unlike [waiting] etch foundry as an example. And so I can't really point to any one or another for you. And quite frankly, I think we all know there's inventory out there in a lot of these device types, but these are long-term investments as well, right? This isn't something that comes in one quarter and then goes away just because of what's happening in the near-term marketplace. But it is in any one segment or another, Toshi, just kind of the broad set of customers.

Toshi，我會接受，然後讓 Tim 繼續。當你看到這個專業節點時，這是一群廣泛的客戶投資。我的意思是，它涉及多個客戶，與[等待]蝕刻代工廠為例。所以我真的無法為你指出任何一個或另一個。坦白說，我想我們都知道許多此類設備類型都有庫存，但這些也是長期投資，對吧？這並不是一個季度出現然後就因為近期市場發生的情況而消失的情況。但它是在任何一個細分市場或另一個細分市場，Toshi，只是一種廣泛的客戶群。

Yes. And Toshi, the only thing I would add is I think this is going to be an area that I think we're going to have to sort of acceptably a little harder to forecast from the standpoint. It's also a part of the market that is impacted by a number of the different chip stack type government support activities around the world. And so you may see as certain regions try to build up their capabilities. We may not be able to point in that moment to the demand being greater than the supply, and that's why they're investing. As Doug said, this is about long-term build-out what I think everybody sees is a much bigger demand for these types of devices over all these various types of applications in automotive and IoT and CMOS image sensors, et cetera, et cetera, over time.

是的。 Toshi，我唯一要補充的是，我認為這將是一個從角度來看我們必須更難預測的領域。它也是受到世界各地許多不同晶片堆疊類型政府支援活動影響的市場的一部分。因此，您可能會看到某些地區試圖增強自己的能力。我們可能無法在那一刻指出需求大於供應，這就是他們投資的原因。正如Doug 所說，這是一個長期建設，我認為每個人都看到，與汽車、物聯網和CMOS 影像感測器等領域的所有各種類型的應用相比，對這些類型的設備的需求要大得多，隨著時間的推移。

Got it. I appreciate the color. And then as my follow-up, one for Doug, on the 2024 model. You talked about mix normalizing and you guys potentially experiencing some headwinds in gross margin. You also talked about '24 potentially being a growth year from an R&D spending perspective. So I guess on gross margins, I guess what's the baseline that we should be working off of? Is the Q4 rate a good starting point? Or is that still kind of high given where China is and then from an R&D spending perspective, I guess, relative to answer if you can kind of hold our hand and quantify how low leverage could be in '24 versus history that would be super helpful.

知道了。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後是我的後續行動，為 Doug 設計的 2024 年車款。你們談到了混合正常化，你們可能會在毛利率方面遇到一些阻力。您也談到，從研發支出的角度來看，24 年可能是成長年。所以我想就毛利率而言，我想我們應該努力的基準是什麼？第四季的利率是一個好的起點嗎？或者，考慮到中國的現狀，然後從研發支出的角度來看，我想，相對於回答，如果你能握住我們的手，量化24 年槓桿率與歷史相比的低程度，這將是非常有幫助的。

All right, Toshi, I'll give you a couple of data points, maybe for a little bit of color, but I'm not going to guide next year. Yes, we're still at an elevated level of gross margin from customer mix relative to where I think things normalize. Maybe a good way to think of it is go back to the June quarter, which was before we saw a lot of this China favorable mix. That's not an unreasonable baseline to start from for gross margin. So anyway, I don't know if that's helpful.

好吧，Toshi，我會給你一些數據點，也許是一些顏色，但我不會在明年提供指導。是的，與我認為情況正常化相比，我們的客戶組合毛利率仍然處於較高水平。也許思考這個問題的一個好方法是回到六月季度，當時我們看到了很多對中國有利的組合。對於毛利率來說，這並不是一個不合理的基線。所以無論如何，我不知道這是否有幫助。

And then I guess what I described from an R&D standpoint. R&D, quite frankly, has to follow a cadence independent of the level of revenue sometimes. I don't know what WFE next year is going to be. I don't know what our top line is going to be quite yet. We'll give you some color next quarter. But I do know we see an enormous number of opportunities around these technology inflections that if we don't invest right now 3, 4 years from now, we'll look back and say, why didn't we, right? I'd be all around. Tim talked about backside power. There's high bandwidth, there's so many things that play to the strength of what we do well. So I think if you look at the December quarter and compared to September, spending up, the March quarter independent of the fact that we're going to invest more in R&D is a 14-week quarter. So you got to comprehend that. And then we're going to grow R&D as we go into next year, maybe a little bit independent of what revenue turns out to be.

然後我猜想我是從研發的角度來描述的。坦白說，有時研發必須遵循獨立於收入水準的節奏。不知道明年的WFE會怎樣。我還不知道我們的頂線會是多少。下個季度我們將為您提供一些色彩。但我確實知道，我們看到了圍繞這些技術變化的大量機會，如果我們現在不立即投資，三、四年後，我們會回顧並說，我們為什麼不這樣做，對吧？我會在周圍。蒂姆談到了背面電源。頻寬很高，有很多東西可以發揮我們擅長的優勢。因此，我認為，如果你看看 12 月的季度，與 9 月相比，支出增加，3 月的季度與我們將在研發上投入更多的事實無關，是一個為期 14 週的季度。所以你必須理解這一點。然後，隨著明年的到來，我們將增加研發，也許有點獨立於收入的結果。

I guess what I would want you to think about is, historically, when business grows at Lam, you've seen nice leverage in the model. It's maybe going to flatten out a little bit, honestly, is how I'm trying to like, come to you to think about it a little bit. And again, that's because we see a lot of opportunities that we think played at the strength and is going to set us up to win in the longer term. I don't know if that helps, Toshiya.

我想我希望您考慮的是，從歷史上看，當 Lam 的業務成長時，您會在該模型中看到很好的槓桿作用。老實說，它可能會變得平坦一點，這就是我想要的，來找你考慮一下。再說一遍，這是因為我們看到了很多我們認為發揮優勢的機會，這些機會將使我們能夠在長期內獲勝。我不知道這是否有幫助，Toshiya。

Yes, it makes sense. I appreciate the color, Doug.

是的，這是有道理的。我很欣賞這個顏色，道格。

Our next question today comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

今天我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

For the first one, I'm trying to understand the usual delta between the recovery in your CSBG business and your memory systems. So how effective of a leading indicator is CSPG recovery? And what is it telling you right now about conceptually when memory system orders recover? Like is it in Q1, Q2, Q3, of next year, like what has been that delta historically? And what is that telling you right now about when your memory system orders can recover?

對於第一個，我試圖了解您的 CSBG 業務和記憶體系統的恢復之間的常見差異。那麼，南方電網的復甦作為領先指標的有效性如何呢？當記憶體系統秩序恢復時，它現在從概念上告訴你什麼？就像明年第一季、第二季、第三季的情況一樣，歷史上的增量是多少？現在你的記憶系統指令何時可以恢復，這告訴你什麼？

Yes. I mean we've -- first, I'd point out the fact that it's been a long time if ever that we've seen fab utilization is quite this low. I mean our prior commentary had been that spares generally grows every year because the installed base continues to get bigger. One piece of that is true is the installed base continues to get a lot bigger. And in fact, we've said it's up more than 40% since the last cyclical downturn. And so the fact that we've seen spares and upgrades and all of these things sort of be off all at one time is pretty unique.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我要指出這樣一個事實：我們已經很久沒有看到晶圓廠利用率如此之低了。我的意思是，我們之前的評論是，由於安裝基礎不斷擴大，備件通常每年都會成長。其中一個事實是安裝基礎繼續變得更大。事實上，我們已經說過，自上次週期性衰退以來，該數字已上漲了 40% 以上。因此，我們看到備件和升級以及所有這些東西都同時關閉這一事實是非常獨特的。

We are anticipating that as fab utilization starts back, we'll see spares come back. And I think the one thing that will come back, and it's a little hard to predict is certain is the technology upgrade portion of this. It's been now a couple of years since any of these tools have been upgraded, and that will have to happen.

我們預計，隨著晶圓廠利用率的恢復，我們將看到備件的恢復。我認為有一件事將會回來，而且有點難以預測，那就是其中的技術升級部分。這些工具的升級已經有幾年了，而且這是必須要進行的。

In terms of your comment about offset, I think we'll -- typically, as customers start to turn the tools back on, you're probably a couple of quarters away from seeing further investments in the technology upgrades. And then I think when you're really talking about capacity adds, it's hard to predict what that time frame is because it really depends on many other factors about our customers' use of long-term demand.

就您對抵銷的評論而言，我認為我們通常會在客戶開始重新開啟工具時，您可能需要幾個季度才能看到對技術升級的進一步投資。然後我認為，當你真正談論產能增加時，很難預測那個時間範圍，因為它實際上取決於我們的客戶對長期需求的使用的許多其他因素。

So I think the one thing we're certain is that we're at very low points now. We would anticipate things like utilization and spares and upgrades to start improving next year. And beyond that, I think we'll wait until January to give you a better view.

所以我認為我們可以確定的一件事是我們現在處於非常低的點。我們預計利用率、備件和升級等方面將在明年開始改善。除此之外，我想我們會等到一月才能給你一個更好的視角。

For my follow-up, another China-related question. Part of your second half strength came, I believe, from clarification of some rules. And I was hoping you would quantify how much of that strength you saw in your shipments came from just that clarification? And does that kind of spill over to early '24. I'm just trying to tease apart how much is sort of sustainable China strength versus how much is potentially from one-off clarification in rules? Or maybe those were not one-off, right? Maybe they're also sustainable. So just if you could give us some way to guide us to how we should think about China conceptually in your first half of next year.

我的後續問題是另一個與中國相關的問題。我相信，你們下半場的力量部分來自於對一些規則的澄清。我希望您能量化您在發貨中看到的強勁勢頭有多少來自於這一澄清？這種情況會延續到 24 年初嗎？我只是想弄清楚，中國的可持續實力有多少是來自於規則的一次性澄清？或者也許這些都不是一次性的，對吧？也許它們也是可持續的。所以，請您給我們一些方法來指導我們在明年上半年如何從概念上思考中國。

Yes, Vivek, we're not going to guide you next year quite yet. But the clarification of the rules we described isn't changing, right? So we understood one node that a certain customer was doing was okay to ship to. The rules didn't change. We just had to do a little work to understand that. Collectively, as an industry, that's not going to go away. Having said that also, what our commentary on the call so far has been, I don't know if China is up now on our sideways next tier, but it's not going away. When we talk to our customers in China, they all communicate roadmaps that have multiyear horizons in front of them. Nothing new came from the regulations that you saw yesterday. So I see a level of sustainability in China as we go into next year and frankly, beyond. They have long-term objectives.

是的，Vivek，明年我們還不會為您提供指導。但我們描述的規則的澄清並沒有改變，對吧？因此，我們了解到某個客戶正在做的節點可以運送到。規則沒有改變。我們只需要做一些工作就能理解這一點。總的來說，作為一個行業，這種情況不會消失。話雖如此，到目前為止我們對這次電話會議的評論是什麼，我不知道中國現在是否處於我們的下一級，但它不會消失。當我們與中國客戶交談時，他們都會傳達具有多年前景的路線圖。你昨天看到的規定沒有什麼新內容。因此，當我們進入明年乃至更遠的未來時，我看到了中國的可持續發展水平。他們有長期目標。

Our next question today comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

今天我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

For my first question, you talked about in your WFE uptick on non-LAM markets driving some of that. Am I oversimplifying? Are you just talking about litho or do you have something else in mind when you made that statement?

對於我的第一個問題，您談到了非 LAM 市場的 WFE 上漲推動了其中的一些成長。我是否過於簡化了？您只是在談論光刻，還是您在發表此言論時還有其他想法？

Stacy, it's primarily litho. It's litho and these restricted fabs in China that we didn't have complete visibility into what they were doing, frankly. It was those two.

史黛西，主要是平版印刷。坦白說，我們無法完全了解光刻和中國這些受限的晶圓廠他們在做什麼。就是那兩個人。

Got it. You have better visibility now?

知道了。現在能見度更好了嗎？

I think we do. That's why we updated the number. We never get this exactly right, but we try to tell you what we think of it now.

我想我們做到了。這就是我們更新該數字的原因。我們從來沒有完全正確地理解這一點，但我們試著告訴你我們現在的想法。

Stacy, some of our visibility comes from the fact that our peer companies are reporting on the business and really their markets. So as the year goes on, we try to give you a view of the whole market, but obviously, we're most accurate on the Lam business.

史黛西，我們的一些知名度來自於我們的同行公司正在報告業務以及他們的市場。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們試圖讓您了解整個市場，但顯然，我們對 Lam 業務的了解是最準確的。

Got it. Got it. But to be clear, I think you said there's no change to your forecast for the Lam business for the year, whatever that forecast is.

知道了。知道了。但需要明確的是，我認為您說過，無論預測是什麼，您對今年 Lam 業務的預測都沒有變化。

That's right. Because we understand that WFE quite well.

這是正確的。因為我們非常了解 WFE。

Got it. Got it. And so for my follow-up, I want to go back to the leverage question for next year. So I understand you're talking about like leverage, like maybe flattening out. Was that just a statement you just think OpEx, I mean, just to put on table OpEx growing with revenue, whatever revenue is? Or given the gross margin compression that we'll probably see at least from the current level, like do you think operating margins year-over-year could actually go -- could decline next calendar year? Or like just how do we think about those different pieces?

知道了。知道了。因此，對於我的後續行動，我想回到明年的槓桿問題。所以我知道你在談論槓桿，例如可能會趨於平緩。這是否只是一個聲明，您只是認為營運支出，我的意思是，只是將營運支出隨著收入的增長而增長，無論收入是多少？或者考慮到我們至少從目前的水平可能會看到毛利率壓縮，就像你認為營業利潤率同比實際上可能會下降——明年可能會下降嗎？或者就像我們如何看待這些不同的作品？

Stacy, if you look at what Lam has done over the last, I don't know, a decade, frankly. We've expanded margin as revenue has grown. At this point, I'm not sure what revenue is going to be next year, but I know we're going to invest more in R&D. That's what I'm trying to describe because we see all of these opportunities. And yes, I referred to the fact that we've got pretty favorable customer mix that likely mitigates somewhat next year. And so when you think about those two things, it's possible to think about kind of margin flattening off for a period of time. Our long-term profit objectives are unchanged. So I do want to reiterate that point as well.

史黛西，如果你看看林在過去所做的事情，我不知道，坦白說，十年。隨著營收的成長，我們擴大了利潤率。目前，我不確定明年的收入是多少，但我知道我們將在研發方面投入更多。這就是我想要描述的，因為我們看到了所有這些機會。是的，我提到了這樣一個事實，即我們擁有相當有利的客戶組合，明年可能會有所緩解。因此，當您考慮這兩件事時，可能會想到利潤率會在一段時間內趨於平緩。我們的長期利潤目標並沒有改變。所以我也想重申這一點。

Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Srini Pajjuri 和 Raymond James。

I have a couple of longer-term questions, Tim. I guess if I look at the last 5 years, your logic and foundry business has been growing almost at a 30% rate. And historically, your memory was close to 60%. And now I think we're at the bottom kind of moving from 27% to 38% or so this quarter. I'm just curious, how do you think about the mix longer term, I guess, when things normalize for you? And what is, I think, in your view, what do you think is the ideal mix for you? And what implications, if any, that might have on your top line growth going forward?

提姆，我有幾個長期問題。我想如果我看看過去 5 年，你們的邏輯和代工業務幾乎以 30% 的速度成長。從歷史上看，你的記憶力接近 60%。現在我認為本季我們正處於底部，從 27% 左右上升到 38% 左右。我只是很好奇，當事情恢復正常時，你如何看待長期的混合？我認為，在您看來，您認為最理想的組合是什麼？如果有的話，這可能會對您未來的收入成長產生什麼影響？

Yes. It's a good question. It's a hard question to answer because the actual. Our view is we want more of everything. So we're not looking to reduce our position in memory just to make the mix look better. So we try hard every day. We have a fantastic position in memory, and we think there's still more to come there as over the next decade, I mean, NAND is going to scale customers saying to 1,000 layers, and that's a tremendous opportunity for Lam. DRAM going to 3D around the end of the decade, tremendous opportunity for Lam. So I'm afraid the memory side will keep growing simply because it's so well suited to our strengths. But you have heard us talk a lot about the fact that we see huge opportunity in the foundry logic side as well. And when Doug just talked about spending, I mean, I've tried to lay out for you in the last several quarters, the breadth of opportunities that are ahead of the company, many of which -- not all, but many of which are on the foundry logic side.

是的。這是一個好問題。這是一個很難回答的問題，因為事實是如此。我們的觀點是我們想要更多。因此，我們並不是為了讓混音看起來更好而降低我們在記憶體中的位置。所以我們每天都在努力。我們在記憶體領域擁有絕佳的地位，我們認為未來十年還會有更多的發展，我的意思是，NAND 將擴展到客戶所說的 1,000 層，這對 Lam 來說是一個巨大的機會。 DRAM 將在本世紀末轉向 3D，這對 Lam 來說是巨大的機會。所以我擔心記憶體方面會繼續成長，因為它非常適合我們的優勢。但您已經聽到我們談論了很多這樣的事實，即我們在代工邏輯方面也看到了巨大的機會。當道格剛剛談到支出時，我的意思是，在過去的幾個季度中，我一直試圖為您展示公司面臨的廣泛機會，其中許多機會 - 不是全部，但其中許多是在代工邏輯方面。

I mean just to kind of recap some of those, I mean, the dry EUV photoresist and develop. When we said that's $1.5 billion opportunity over 5 years. And when you get towards the tail end of that 5 years, I mean, that's a revenue that's growing with the number of expanding EUV layers at every technology node after that. That's primarily foundry logic business.

我的意思是回顧其中的一些，我的意思是，乾式 EUV 光阻和顯影。當我們說這是 5 年內價值 15 億美元的機會。當你接近這 5 年的尾聲時，我的意思是，隨著此後每個技術節點上 EUV 層數的擴展，收入會不斷增長。這主要是代工邏輯業務。

We talked about gate all around, about $1 billion incremental opportunity for Lam introduces opportunities to win new tools and selective etch and ALD. And so that's same expansion for us in foundry logic and opportunity to grow. We talked about advanced packaging. I mean you've already seen what's happened with not only the HBM side of AI, but also the entire formation of these big AI systems using interposers. Lam's invested now in panel processing as a way to ultimately bring down the costs of some of this chiplet -- these chiplet applications.

我們全面討論了閘極，為 Lam 帶來了約 10 億美元的增量機會，帶來了贏得新工具以及選擇性蝕刻和 ALD 的機會​​。因此，這對我們來說是代工邏輯和成長機會的相同擴展。我們討論了先進封裝。我的意思是，您不僅已經了解了 AI 的 HBM 方面所發生的情況，還了解了使用中介層的這些大型 AI 系統的整個形成過程。 Lam 現在投資於面板加工，作為最終降低部分小晶片（這些小晶片應用）成本的一種方式。

And then finally, today, I just talked about backside power distribution as a new way of being very creative about how you use that backside of the wafer is additional real estate and it opens up a lot of new opportunities for us, and that's primarily a foundry logic application as well. And so really, what we're talking about is Lam has a long way to go to expand our SAM, especially on the foundry logic side. That's what we're investing for. And each of these is a $1 billion-plus opportunity for Lam over the next several years. And so we're pretty excited about that. But we're not giving up on our strong memory positions.

最後，今天，我剛剛談到背面配電，這是一種非常有創意的新方式，如何使用晶圓背面是額外的空間，它為我們開闢了很多新的機會，這主要是代工廠邏輯應用也是如此。事實上，我們談論的是 Lam 在擴展我們的 SAM 方面還有很長的路要走，特別是在代工邏輯方面。這就是我們投資的目的。對 Lam 來說，每一項都是未來幾年價值超過 10 億美元的機會。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。但我們不會放棄我們強大的記憶地位。

I appreciate that answer. And then my quick follow-up on the HBM, I guess, technology itself. A lot of questions have been asked already. Just on the capital intensity of HBM. Tim, I mean, I know you said the die size is larger and I guess, cycle times are longer, et cetera. But is there a way to think about capital intensity per wafer or per bit? How we should think about HBM versus traditional DDR?

我很欣賞這個答案。然後我對 HBM 進行了快速跟進，我猜是技術本身。已經提出了很多問題。就HBM的資本密集度而言。提姆，我的意思是，我知道你說模具尺寸更大，我猜，週期時間更長，等等。但有沒有辦法考慮每晶圓或每比特的資本密集度？與傳統 DDR 相比，我們應該如何看待 HBM？

Well, I think it's a -- I don't know that we've quantified that number, but it's -- it obviously is a much higher performance die than our device, and it does -- it is bigger and takes more capital. And so therefore, it's a performance-driven application. From our perspective, though, what really is interesting is that many of the new tools that get added to enable HBM or Lam tools or tools that are in our market, things like silicon etch and copper plating for the TSV formation. And so that's what really makes it an even better transition for that massive [debt] company like Lam.

嗯，我認為這是一個——我不知道我們是否已經量化了這個數字，但是它——它顯然是一個比我們的設備性能更高的晶片，而且它確實——它更大並且需要更多的資本。因此，它是一個性能驅動的應用程式。但從我們的角度來看，真正有趣的是許多新工具被添加來支援 HBM 或 Lam 工具或我們市場上的工具，例如用於 TSV 形成的矽蝕刻和銅電鍍。因此，對於林氏這樣的大型[債務]公司來說，這才是真正使其實現更好轉型的原因。

And our next question today comes from Brian Chin with Stifel.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

So about a week ago, the U.S. relaxed its licensing requirements for some foreign companies that operate more advanced fabs in China. I know it's fairly recent, but have you seen a positive impact yet from this change in the licensing policy. I did note that in talking about China remaining a good concentration in the December quarter. It sounds like maybe there could be some shifting there between local and maybe foreign domiciled companies?

大約一週前，美國放寬了對一些在中國經營更先進晶圓廠的外國公司的許可要求。我知道這是最近的事，但您是否看到許可政策的這項變更帶來了正面影響？我確實注意到，在談論中國時，人們的注意力仍然集中在 12 月的季度。聽起來本地公司和外國註冊公司之間可能會有一些轉移嗎？

Yes. It's pretty -- that comment is pretty recent. But I think relative to multinationals, wherever they operate, whether China or certainty of being able to make the investment and benefit from that long term is very important. So obviously, in the last couple of weeks, we haven't seen any movement that we had talked about. I think long term, it allows people -- it allows our customers to ultimately make the right decisions for them about where to invest. And that is especially true when you think about our installed base and the upgrades to the installed base and a customer willingness to sort of move forward with those upgrades with certainties.

是的。很漂亮——這個評論是最近才發表的。但我認為，相對於跨國公司，無論它們在哪裡經營，無論是在中國還是能夠進行投資並從中長期受益的確定性都非常重要。顯然，在過去幾周里，我們沒有看到任何我們談論過的動向。我認為從長遠來看，它允許人們——它允許我們的客戶最終就投資地點做出正確的決定。當您考慮我們的安裝基礎和安裝基礎的升級以及客戶願意肯定地推進這些升級時，這一點尤其正確。

That's helpful. And then a lot of questions have been asked about sort of service spares and utilization improvements. But just curious, if memory companies are kind of talking as is they'll realize some of that utilization improvement, not just through increasing wafer starts, but also through some reduction in wafer start capacity as they emphasize newer nodes or capital efficiencies on some wafer loss there. How are you thinking about how that impacts maybe the trajectory of your service and spares revenue growth in calendar '24?

這很有幫助。然後就服務備件和利用率改進提出了很多問題。但只是好奇，如果記憶體公司照原樣說話，他們會意識到一些利用率的提高，不僅透過增加晶圓開工，而且還透過一些晶圓開工容量的減少，因為他們強調某些晶圓上的更新節點或資本效率那裡有損失。您如何看待這可能會如何影響您的服務軌跡並避免 24 世紀的收入成長？

Well, I think that we have to see and we -- as we said about the -- it's difficult to predict the pace of the recovery. But what happens there is we're just trading off one part of our business that CSBG business for another. If upgrades happened before spares, you're right, it brings utilization down. But there's also something that we've said, which is as technology moves forward, many of those applications become more spares intensive because the processes are longer and more demanding. And so I would just say that we're going to see a rise in both parts of our business as fab operations recover and customers start to fully utilize the equipment in those fabs.

嗯，我認為我們必須看到，正如我們所說，很難預測復甦的速度。但實際情況是，我們只是將 CSBG 業務的一部分換成了另一部分。如果升級發生在備件之前，那麼您是對的，它會降低利用率。但我們也說過，隨著技術的進步，許多應用變得更加密集，因為流程更長、要求更高。因此，我想說，隨著晶圓廠營運的恢復以及客戶開始充分利用這些晶圓廠的設備，我們的這兩個部分的業務都會有所成長。

Our next question today comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SFG.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. Just two quick follow-ups. Opportunities with the back side power rate. Should I think about it more of a 3-nanometer or extension of 3-nanometer? Or are those opportunities materializing when we migrate to 2-nanometer. And I have a follow-up.

是的。只需兩次快速跟進。背面功率的機會。我應該多考慮 3 奈米還是 3 奈米的延伸？或者說，當我們遷移到 2 奈米時，這些機會就會成為現實嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. I think that it's still a little bit out in the future, I mean, you could go look at our customers' road maps and what they've said publicly, and I think that's probably the best way to put timing on it. I think what we're trying to highlight is the fact that our -- if you think about the challenges across almost every device, we're becoming more and more convinced that the technology solutions to those challenges involve vertical scaling, they move to 3D and you're seeing that backside power, advanced packaging, gate all around. These are -- it is something that is playing extremely well to our strengths in etch and deposition. And so timing is hard to predict, but the certain -- relative certainty of those changes happening is quite high.

是的。我認為它在未來仍然有點遙遠，我的意思是，你可以看看我們客戶的路線圖以及他們公開發表的言論，我認為這可能是安排時間的最佳方式。我認為我們想要強調的是這樣一個事實：如果你考慮一下幾乎所有設備所面臨的挑戰，我們就會越來越相信，應對這些挑戰的技術解決方案涉及垂直縮放，它們會轉向 3D你會看到周圍的背面電源、先進的封裝、閘極。這些是——它非常適合我們在蝕刻和沈積方面的優勢。因此，時間很難預測，但這些變化發生的相對確定性是相當高的。

Got it. And a quick follow-up for Doug. What should we think of a normalized or normal deferred revenue level?

知道了。道格的快速跟進。我們該如何看待標準化或正常的遞延收入水準？

Yes. Mehdi, in the past, I've suggested maybe something around $1 billion is a normalized level and we're somewhat elevated from that. The longer we remain elevated, maybe the normalized level picks up a little bit, but I'll leave that statement, what I said, maybe roughly $1 billion.

是的。 Mehdi，過去，我曾建議 10 億美元左右可能是一個正常化水平，我們在此基礎上有所提高。我們保持高位的時間越長，標準化水平可能會有所回升，但我會留下我所說的聲明，也許大約是 10 億美元。

And our next question today comes from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

今天我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯·卡索。

Question is about where your lead times delivery times are now and generally your ability to react when demand ultimately returns. You made some comments before that your customers you think would need to see some significant improvement before they started spending. Does this mean they have some -- a little bit of luxury of time to see things get a bit better before they start calling you and increasing orders.

問題是關於您現在的交貨時間以及當需求最終恢復時您的反應能力。您之前發表過一些評論，您認為您的客戶在開始消費之前需要看到一些重大改進。這是否意味著他們有一些——一點奢侈的時間來看看事情變得更好，然後他們開始打電話給你並增加訂單。

Yes. I think that if we were to go back and talk about lead times compared to pre-COVID, I would say that generally still extended, but for a variety of reasons. I mean I talked about the investments we've made in our supply chain and our manufacturing facilities. A lot of that has to be more responsive, but I think we will be able to respond when realistically when demand starts to come back. Now in certain areas, it's a little tighter than others. And I think that's where, again, we still continue to work very closely with our customers to make sure we have good forecast as we talked about. High bandwidth memory has been an area that I think has been in tighter supply. And the good thing about the investments we made in our global operations is that in certain cases, we're able to respond a little bit more quickly than customers have urgent needs.

是的。我認為，如果我們回顧一下與新冠疫情爆發前相比的交貨時間，我會說交貨時間總體上仍然延長，但原因有很多。我的意思是，我談到了我們在供應鏈和製造設施方面所做的投資。其中許多都必須更加敏感，但我認為當需求開始回升時，我們將能夠實際做出回應。現在在某些領域，它比其他領域更嚴格。我認為，這就是我們仍然繼續與客戶密切合作的地方，以確保我們有我們所說的良好預測。我認為高頻寬記憶體是供應緊張的一個領域。我們在全球營運中進行的投資的好處是，在某些情況下，我們能夠比客戶的緊急需求更快地回應。

Got it. As a follow-up. If you give a little more clarity on the extra week you're expecting, I think it's in the March quarter, both on -- do you expect a revenue impact from that extra week? And what do you expect the cost impact to be?

知道了。作為後續。如果您更清楚地說明您預計的額外一周，我認為是在三月的季度，您預計額外一周會對收入產生影響嗎？您預計成本影響是什麼？

Yes. Usually, you don't really see much of a revenue impact, frankly. You kind of manage based on what customer wants when. But I know for sure, with an extra week, 14 weeks instead of 13, you got more salary expense, you've got more time to use project materials and whatnot. I don't know. I didn't give you a specific number, but I think it's pretty well chronicled about there. When people have a quarter coming in like this, how much spending grows just because of it. I'm not going to put a number on it, but just think about 14 versus 13.

是的。坦白說，通常情況下，您不會真正看到收入受到太大影響。您可以根據客戶的需求進行管理。但我確信，多一周，14 週而不是 13 週，你會有更多的薪資支出，你有更多的時間來使用專案材料等等。我不知道。我沒有給你一個具體的數字，但我認為那裡有很好的記錄。當人們像這樣進入一個季度時，有多少支出會因此而成長。我不會給出具體數字，但請考慮 14 與 13。

Operator, we have time for one more question, please.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will be from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho 提出。

In. In the past, you guys talked about memory spending recovery will go in several phases from increasing utilization to tech upgrades and then capacity expansion. One of the memory customers talk about converting some of this excess capacity to address the advanced note. Are you seeing that dynamics happening across other memory suppliers? And how does that change your view in terms of the timing of capacity expansion?

在。過去，你們談到記憶體支出的恢復將分幾個階段，從提高利用率到技術升級，然後是擴容。一位記憶體客戶談到要轉換部分過剩容量來解決進階問題。您是否看到其他記憶體供應商正在發生這種動態？這如何改變您對產能擴張時機的看法？

Sidney, you were breaking up a little bit. I think you were asking about the cadence of when utilization comes back, what we think will happen, I think that was your question. And I think what I would tell you, first, spares comes back. Second, you'll see upgrades, and upgrades will have to happen obviously, some of the customer base has taken some things offline. So there's a spend that needs to occur to get that back online and up to speed and then eventually new equipment gets purchased. That hasn't changed.

西德尼，你們有點分手了。我想你問的是利用率何時恢復的節奏，我們認為會發生什麼，我想這就是你的問題。我想我要告訴你的是，首先，備件回來了。其次，你會看到升級，顯然升級必須發生，有些客戶群已經把一些東西離線了。因此，需要花費一筆費用才能使其恢復正常運作並加快速度，然後最終購買新設備。這一點沒有改變。

Okay. So my question was more about some of your customers actually trying to convert some of the excess capacity to address the advanced notes, meaning that it seems like the timeline is compressed. Are you seeing all the memory suppliers doing that?

好的。所以我的問題更多是關於你們的一些客戶實際上試圖轉換一些過剩產能來解決高級註釋，這意味著時間線似乎被壓縮了。您是否看到所有記憶體供應商都這樣做？

We don't talk about any one customer or another, but that will show up in that upgrades commentary that I was talking about, the stuff that gets taken offline eventually needs to get upgraded. That's the upgrade spend in CSBG.

我們不談論任何一個客戶或另一個客戶，但這會出現在我所說的升級評論中，離線的東西最終需要升級。這是CSBG 的升級支出。

Okay. That's it. Maybe last question for you. Given your position in gate-all-around, has your timeline changed at all in terms of when do you expect to see gate-all-around related revenue as compared to 3 months ago? Maybe just remind us when that is going to happen? And what are the leading indicators you watching to gauge that timeline.

好的。就是這樣。也許是你的最後一個問題。考慮到您在 gateway-all-around 中的地位，與 3 個月前相比，您預計何時能看到 gateway-all-around 相關收入，您的時間表是否發生了變化？也許只是提醒我們什麼時候會發生？您關注哪些領先指標來衡量該時間表。

Well, yes, it's -- I don't know that our timing on gate-all-around around has changed much from 3 months ago. I think that, again, it's a means of scaling device performance and device performance is something is important to our customers and their [end applications]. So we're just engaged with customers to make sure our tools get qualified into those new nodes and when they decide to ramp them, we'll be ready as well.

嗯，是的，我不知道我們的繞門時間與 3 個月前相比有多大變化。我再次認為，這是擴展設備性能的一種手段，並且設備性能對於我們的客戶及其[最終應用程式]來說非常重要。因此，我們只是與客戶合作，以確保我們的工具符合這些新節點的要求，當他們決定升級它們時，我們也將做好準備。

And this for our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn it back over to the management team for closing remarks.

這就是我們的問答環節。我想將其轉回管理團隊以供結束語。

Thank you, operator, and we appreciate everyone for joining. Thank you for your time today.

謝謝運營商，我們感謝大家的加入。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。