科林研發 (LRCX) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research September 2023 Financial Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2023 年 9 月財務電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Please note today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我將會議交給公司副總裁、首席會計官兼投資者關係負責人蒂娜·科雷亞女士。請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 的季度財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the September 2023 quarter and our outlook for the December 2023 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 01:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享對當前商業環境的概述，並回顧2023年9月季度的財務業績以及對2023年12月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於今天下午太平洋時間1點剛過發布。您也可以在公司網站的投資者關係頁面找到該新聞稿以及本次電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，這些風險和不確定性因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的公開文件中披露。請參閱簡報中的相關投影片以取得更多資訊。除非另有說明，今天我們將以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務報表的形式討論財務表現。 GAAP和非GAAP業績之間的詳細調整表可在簡報中的相關幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 03:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

本次電話會議預計持續到太平洋時間下午3點。會議錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。接下來，我會把電話交給提姆。

Thanks, Tina, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝蒂娜，也歡迎各位。

Lam produced solid results for the September quarter. Revenues came in above the midpoint of our guidance. And for the second quarter in a row, our gross margin, operating margin and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of the guidance range. Our revenue and earnings per share are expected to improve further in the December quarter, demonstrating our continued strong execution in a cyclically soft calendar year 2023.

Lam在9月的季度業績表現穩健。營收高於我們預期的中位數。連續第二個季度，我們的毛利率、營業利潤率和每股盈餘都超過了預期範圍的上限。我們預計12月份的季度營收和每股盈餘將進一步提升，這顯示我們在2023年這個週期性疲軟的年份依然保持著強勁的業績。

Turning to the wafer fabrication equipment environment. We see spending for calendar year 2023 in the $80 billion range. The adjustment in WFE from our prior view of mid-$70 billion is based on updated checks on non-Lam-related markets, as well as restricted fab spending in China. It does not change our assumptions on Lam revenues for the year. On the device segment side, NAND weakness continued in the quarter as customers adjusted spending levels down and further lowered utilizations to drive a faster path to supply-demand balance.

接下來我們來看看晶圓製造設備市場。我們預計2023年全年的支出將在800億美元左右。先前我們預期晶圓製造設備支出為700億美元左右，此次調整是基於對非Lam相關市場的最新評估，以及中國晶圓廠支出受限的情況。但這並不影響我們對Lam業務全年營收的預期。在裝置領域，由於客戶下調了支出水準並進一步降低了產能利用率以加快供需平衡，NAND閃存在本季持續疲軟。

While NAND WFE is down significantly in 2023, supply actions are starting to have a positive impact. Customers have recently indicated that pricing trends have stabilized and NAND bit demand has increased from high single digits percent year-over-year growth to high teens as certain consumer markets are demonstrating greater demand elasticity and per unit content.

儘管2023年NAND快閃記憶體晶片的WFE需求大幅下降，但供應方面的舉措已開始產生正面影響。客戶近期表示，價格趨勢已趨於穩定，NAND快閃記憶體位需求年增率也從個位數百分比回升至十幾個百分點，這得益於部分消費市場需求彈性增強以及單價提升。

DRAM spending is modestly up relative to our prior view, driven by better trends in high-bandwidth memory related demand as well as further upside from domestic China customers. Meanwhile, the foundry/logic segment is down slightly versus our prior baseline due to weakness in both leading edge and non-China-based mature node investments.

DRAM支出較我們先前的預期略有成長，主要得益於高頻寬記憶體相關需求的改善趨勢以及中國國內客戶的進一步成長。同時，由於前沿製程和非中國成熟製程節點投資疲軟，晶圓代工/邏輯晶片領域的支出較我們先前的基準值略有下降。

Looking forward, it remains hard to call the timing and pace of WFE recovery, but we believe Lam is in a good position to benefit from both cyclical and structural drivers of demand. When memory investments begin to recover from current cyclical lows, we expect to see early benefits in our installed base business as fab utilization improves, driving increased demand for spares, services and equipment upgrades. Longer term, Lam's growth story is strong and is underpinned by the fact that etch and deposition are fundamental enablers of higher performance, more scalable semiconductor device architectures. To address emerging technical challenges, customers continue to identify new innovative use cases for vertical scaling. Backside power delivery is a good example as it is an emerging device architecture being developed to address the scaling limitations of traditional back-end-of-line integration schemes. Etch and deposition play a critical role in enabling this transition and backside power delivery is expected to add close to $1 billion of incremental SAM opportunity for Lam per 100,000 monthly wafer starts.

展望未來，WFE（晶圓廠設備）復甦的時機和速度仍難以預測，但我們相信，Lam 處於有利地位，能夠從週期性和結構性需求驅動因素中獲益。當記憶體投資開始從當前的週期性低谷復甦時，隨著晶圓廠利用率的提高，我們預計現有業務將率先受益，從而帶動對備件、服務和設備升級的需求成長。從長遠來看，Lam 的成長前景強勁，這得益於蝕刻和沈積技術是實現更高性能、更具可擴展性的半導體裝置架構的根本推動因素。為了應對不斷湧現的技術挑戰，客戶持續探索垂直擴展的創新應用場景。背面供電就是一個很好的例子，它是一種新興的裝置架構，旨在解決傳統後端整合方案的擴展性限制。蝕刻和沈積技術在實現這一轉型中發揮關鍵作用，預計背面供電技術將為 Lam 每新增 10 萬片晶圓的 SAM（半導體製造應用）業務帶來近 10 億美元的增量機會。

Today, power interconnects increasingly compete for space in the complex back end of line wiring while also taking up considerable area at the transistor level. Additionally, managing power loss between the external source and the transistors is increasingly challenging due to resistance. A backside power delivery architecture enables the separation of the signal and power delivery path to free up valuable wafer for real estate and minimize power loss.

如今，電源互連在複雜的後端佈線中日益佔據空間，同時在電晶體層面也佔用相當大的面積。此外，由於電阻的存在，控制外部電源與電晶體之間的功率損耗也變得越來越具有挑戰性。背面供電架構能夠將訊號和電源傳輸路徑分離，從而釋放寶貴的晶圓空間並最大限度地減少功率損耗。

Furthermore, customers are implementing changes, including the use of thicker metal layers in order to efficiently integrate backside power with their advanced packaging schemes. New etch and deposition capabilities are needed and the trends are favorable for Lam. Due to our existing strength in back-end processes, we have been able to quickly extend the capabilities of our copper electroplating and PECVD deposition products to address the throughput and productivity requirements of backside power applications.

此外，客戶正在實施一些變革，例如使用更厚的金屬層，以便將背面電源有效地整合到其先進的封裝方案中。這需要新的蝕刻和沈積能力，而這些趨勢對Lam公司有利。憑藉我們在後端製程方面的現有優勢，我們能夠迅速擴展銅電鍍和PECVD沉積產品的能力，以滿足背面電源應用的吞吐量和生產效率要求。

We now have tool of record positions at a leading foundry logic customer and expect these positions to continue to grow. As we approach the end of the year, our installed base is closing in on 90,000 chambers. As semiconductor manufacturing is becoming increasingly complex, our customer support business group is seeing more opportunities to deliver innovation, productivity and yield enhancement.

我們目前已在一家領先的晶圓代工邏輯晶片客戶處擁有設備安裝記錄，並預計這些職位將持續成長。隨著年底臨近，我們的設備安裝量已接近 9 萬台。隨著半導體製造日益複雜，我們的客戶支援業務團隊看到了更多提升創新能力、生產效率和良率的機會。

In the September quarter, we expanded our equipment intelligence offering at multiple customers to include the first big data application of high-resolution optical emission spectroscopy, or OES. The equipment intelligence capabilities we are delivering with OES are highly differentiated due to the complexity of collecting and interpreting plasma spectra in manufacturing over time and across a large fleet of tools. Our solution allows customers to resolve performance issues that would otherwise remain undetected. Recently, our CSBG team also put the industry's first collaborative maintenance robot, or cobot, into a production fab at a leading customer. Cobots helped execute complex maintenance tasks with precision and reliability, leading to improved tool-to-tool performance matching and higher equipment availability.

在九月的季度中，我們為多家客戶擴展了設備智慧解決方案，首次將高解析度光發射光譜（OES）應用於大數據領域。由於在製造過程中，需要長期、跨大量設備收集和解讀等離子體光譜，因此我們基於 OES 提供的設備智慧功能具有顯著優勢。我們的解決方案能夠幫助客戶解決原本難以發現的效能問題。此外，我們的 CSBG 團隊近期還在領先客戶的生產車間部署了業界首個協作維護機器人（cobot）。協作機器人能夠精準可靠地執行複雜的維護任務，進而提升設備間的效能匹配度，並提高設備的可用性。

Also, we believe cobots as a new service offering can play an important role in addressing anticipated skilled labor shortages as semiconductor manufacturing expands and becomes more regionalized. Overall, we see tremendous vectors of growth ahead for the semiconductor industry and for Lam.

此外，我們認為，隨著半導體製造業的擴張和區域化程度的提高，協作機器人作為一種新型服務，可以在應對預期中的技術工人短缺問題上發揮重要作用。總而言之，我們看到半導體產業和Lam公司未來都擁有巨大的成長潛力。

Scaling and complexity challenges are driving multiple inflections for 3D architectures, and, in turn, greater etch and deposition intensity. Lam has a strong track record of execution, and we are committed to making the strategic investments needed to position the company to outperform as the industry and our markets grow.

規模化和複雜性方面的挑戰正在推動3D架構的多次轉型，進而需要更高的蝕刻和沈積強度。 Lam公司擁有卓越的執行力，我們致力於進行必要的策略性投資，以確保公司在產業和市場成長的過程中保持領先地位。

Over the last 2 years, we've been laying the groundwork for greater scale and efficiency with the expansion of our manufacturing, supply chain and warehousing capabilities in Asia in order to better serve our customers in that region. We are also increasing our R&D efforts to extend our technology differentiation and expand our product portfolio to capture new inflection-driven applications. While the current business environment remains challenging, secular industry trends play extremely well to land strengths, and we are excited by the breadth of opportunities we see ahead for the company.

過去兩年，我們透過在亞洲擴大製造、供應鏈和倉儲能力，為提升規模和效率奠定了基礎，以便更好地服務該地區的客戶。同時，我們也增加了研發投入，以增​​強技術差異化優勢，並拓展產品組合，從而抓住新興的應用領域。儘管當前的商業環境仍然充滿挑戰，但長期的行業趨勢非常有利於我們發揮自身優勢，我們對公司未來的發展機會充滿信心。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Doug.

謝謝，現在我把麥克風交給道格。

Excellent. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today.

太好了。謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝各位今天參加電話會議。

We delivered strong results in the September 2023 quarter. Our revenue came in above the midpoint of our guided range in gross margin, operating income and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance. We're pleased with the company's execution during a year where memory WFE investment has declined by unprecedented amounts.

我們在2023年9月季度取得了強勁的業績。營收高於預期範圍的中點，毛利率、營業收入和每股盈餘都超過了預期上限。在記憶體晶圓前端（WFE）投資出現前所未有的下滑的情況下，我們對公司在這一年的業績表現感到滿意。

Let's look at the details of our September quarter financial results. Revenue for the September quarter was $3.48 billion, which was up 9% from the prior quarter and down more than 30% from a year ago. Our deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $1.69 billion, which was a decrease of approximately $150 million from the June quarter mainly related to revenue recognized tied to customer advanced payments. We continue to have a higher deferred revenue balance versus historic levels given these advanced payments. We expect to recognize revenue in the December quarter for a portion of these deposits, which is comprehended in our guidance. Within calendar year 2024, I believe the deferred revenue balance will trend to more normalized levels.

讓我們來看看9月份季度的財務表現詳情。 9月季度營收為34.8億美元，較上一季成長9%，但較去年同期下降超過30%。季度末遞延收入餘額為16.9億美元，較6月份季度減少約1.5億美元，主要原因是確認了與客戶預付款相關的收入。鑑於這些預付款，我們的遞延收入餘額仍然高於歷史水準。我們預計將在12月份季度確認部分預付款的收入，這已包含在我們的業績指引中。我相信，到2024年，遞延收入餘額將趨於正常水準。

Let's now look at the segments. From a segment perspective, September quarter systems revenue in memory was 38%, which is an increase from the prior quarter level of 27%. The growth in the memory segment was driven by DRAM, which increased sequentially coming in at 23% of systems revenue compared with 9% that we saw in the June quarter.

現在我們來看看各個業務板塊。從板塊來看，9 月季度系統營收中記憶體業務佔比為 38%，高於上一季的 27%。記憶體業務的成長主要得益於 DRAM 業務，其佔比季成長，達到系統收入的 23%，而 6 月季度這一比例為 9%。

As we've noted in prior quarters, nonvolatile memory spending is at historic lows in 2023 and for the September quarter, the segment represented 15% of systems revenue, which was down from the 18% that we saw last quarter. These spending levels in NAND are at dollar levels we have not seen since planar NAND was the predominant technology.

正如我們在前幾季所指出的，2023年非揮發性記憶體支出處於歷史低點。在9月份的季度中，該業務板塊佔系統收入的15%，低於上一季的18%。 NAND快閃記憶體的支出水準已降至平面NAND快閃記憶體技術佔據主導地位以來的最低水準。

The Foundry segment represented 36% of our systems revenue lower than the percentage concentration in the June quarter of 47%. The decrease is related to timing of leading-edge investments within calendar year 2023. We performed well in this segment during the year, with this quarter spending coming mainly from mature node customers. And finally, the Logic and Other segment was 26% of our systems revenue in the September quarter, which was flat with the prior quarter level. Investments in this segment were heavily focused in the specialty device areas, including sensors, analog and power devices.

晶圓代工業務占我們系統總營收的36%，低於6月季的47%。這一降幅與2023年全年前沿技術投資的時機有關。此業務部門全年表現良好，本季支出主要來自成熟節點客戶。最後，邏輯及其他業務板塊占我們9月份季度系統總收入的26%，與上一季持平。此業務板塊的投資主要集中在特殊裝置領域，包括感測器、類比裝置和功率裝置。

I'll now discuss the regional composition of our total revenue. The China region came in at a high watermark of 48%, up from 26% in the prior quarter. The majority of the China revenue this quarter was from domestic Chinese customers, and we currently expect we will have another strong China geographic concentration profile in the December quarter is well. Our next largest geographic region concentration, [was] Korea had 16% of revenue in the September quarter and that compares with the 24% that we saw in June.

接下來我將討論我們總收入的區域組成。中國地區的營收佔比達到創紀錄的48%，高於上一季的26%。本季中國地區的大部分收入來自中國國內客戶，我們目前預計12月季度中國地區的營收佔比仍將保持強勁。收入佔比第二高的地區是韓國，其在9月季度的收入佔比為16%，低於6月的24%。

Our Customer Support Business Group generated revenue in the September quarter, totaling approximately $1.4 billion, which was down 5% from the June quarter and 25% lower than the September quarter and calendar year 2022. Memory customers continue to operate their fabs at very low utilization rates and customers are holding off on upgrading tools until there's more digestion of the outstanding inventory that is in the industry.

我們的客戶支援業務集團在9月份季度創造了約14億美元的收入，比6月份季度下降了5%，比9月份季度和2022年全年下降了25%。記憶體客戶的晶圓廠利用率仍然很低，客戶也暫緩升級設備，直到業界未消化的庫存被消化更多。

The specialty technology market has been a bright spot this year and we see that part of our business up year-over-year as we close calendar year 2023. Spares and the Reliant product line continues to be the two largest components of CSBG.

特種技術市場是今年的一大亮點，我們預計到 2023 年底，該業務部分將同比增長。備件和 Reliant 產品線仍然是 CSBG 的兩大組成部分。

Let me now turn to the gross margin performance. The September quarter came in at 47.9%, above our guided range and higher than the June quarter level of 45.7%. Our strong gross margin performance compared to the prior quarter was driven primarily by favorable customer mix. We've improved elements of our cost structure during the year and are on track with our plan to improve gross margin from the March quarter level by approximately 1 percentage point as we exit calendar year 2023.

現在我來談談毛利率表現。 9 月季度的毛利率為 47.9%，高於我們先前的預期範圍，也高於 6 月季度的 45.7%。與上一季相比，我們強勁的毛利率表現主要得益於有利的客戶組合。年內，我們已對成本結構中的部分環節進行了優化，並正按計劃推進，力爭在 2023 年底前將毛利率較 3 月份季度水平提高約 1 個百分點。

September quarter operating expenses came in at $622 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $590 million. R&D as a percentage of spending was somewhat higher versus the June quarter, coming in at over 68% of our spending. The increased investment was focused on key technology inflections and development engagements with our customers. We will continue to invest in programs across multiple market segments to support our long-term strategic objectives for continued company outperformance.

9月季度營運支出為6.22億美元，高於上一季的5.9億美元。研發支出佔總支出的比例較6月季度略有上升，超過68%。增加的研發投入主要集中在關鍵技術突破和與客戶的合作開發項目。我們將持續投資於多個細分市場的研發項目，以支持我們實現長期策略目標，進而持續提升公司績效。

Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.1% higher than the June quarter level of 27.3% and more than 100 basis points over the high end of our guidance because of that strong gross margin performance.

由於毛利率表現強勁，本季營業利潤率比 6 月季度的 27.3% 高出 30.1%，比我們預期的上限高出 100 多個基點。

Non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 13.4%, in line with our expectations. Our estimate for the December 2023 quarter as well as for calendar year 2024 is for the tax rate to be in the low to mid-teens range. Other income and expense for the September quarter came in at $7 million in income compared with $7 million in expense in the June quarter. The favorable fluctuation in OI&E was due to a variety of factors, including rising interest rates, generating income on our cash balance. OI&E will continue to be subject to market-related fluctuations that will cause some level of volatility quarter-by-quarter.

本季非GAAP稅率為13.4%，符合預期。我們預計2023年12月季度以及2024年全年稅率將維持在10%至15%的區間。 9月份季度的其他收入和支出為700萬美元，與6月份季度的700萬美元支出持平。其他收入和支出的有利波動歸因於多種因素，包括利率上升帶來的現金餘額收益。其他收入和支出將繼續受到市場波動的影響，導致季度間出現一定程度的波動。

Let me now move to the capital return side of things. We allocated approximately $830 million to open market share repurchases and paid $230 million in dividends in the September quarter. I'll highlight that in September, we announced a 16% growth in our dividend, in line with our plan to deliver disciplined annual dividend growth.

現在我來談談資本回報方面。我們在9月的季度中，撥出約8.3億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並支付了2.3億美元的股利。值得一提的是，9月我們宣布股息成長16%，這符合我們穩健年度股息成長的計畫。

Since paying our first dividend in 2014, we have now raised the dividend amount 9x. We returned over 120% of free cash flow in the quarter and we have $2.7 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan.

自 2014 年首次派發股息以來，我們已將股息金額提高了 9 倍。本季我們實現了超過 120% 的自由現金流回報，而我們董事會批准的股票回購計畫中還剩餘 27 億美元。

Calendar year-to-date, we've returned 83% of our free cash flow to shareholders. September quarter diluted earnings per share was $6.85 over the high end of our guided range. Diluted share count was 133 million shares, on track with our expectations and down from the June quarter.

今年迄今為止，我們已將83%的自由現金流返還給股東。 9月份季度稀釋後每股收益為6.85美元，高於我們預期範圍的上限。稀釋後股份總數為1.33億股，符合預期，較6月季度下降。

Let me pivot to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments at the end of the September quarter totaled $5.2 billion down from $5.6 billion in the June quarter. The main driver of the cash decrease was obviously our capital return activity. I just mentioned, we also purchased buildings at our company headquarters as well as our Bay Area, California factory for approximately $250 million, retiring the leases that were on the balance sheet. The usage of cash was somewhat offset by improvement in day sales outstanding, which were 73 days in the September quarter, down from the 80 days that we saw in the June quarter.

接下來我來談談資產負債表。截至9月底，我們的現金和短期投資總額為52億美元，低於6月底的56億美元。現金減少的主要原因顯然是我們的資本回報活動。正如我剛才提到的，我們還斥資約2.5億美元收購了公司總部大樓以及位於加州灣區的工廠，並終止了資產負債表上的相關租約。現金使用情況在一定程度上被應收帳款週轉天數的改善所抵消，9月底的應收帳款週轉天數為73天，低於6月底的80天。

Inventory turns were flat with the prior quarter level of 1.5x. We continue to work to bring our inventory down. But as we've noted in prior quarter, we expect this to occur at a slower pace than we've done in the past. Our noncash expenses for the September quarter included approximately $67 million for equity compensation, $76 million in depreciation and $14 million in amortization. Capital expenditures for the September quarter came in at $77 million, which was flat with the June quarter.

庫存週轉率與上季持平，為1.5倍。我們將繼續努力降低庫存。但正如我們在上個季度所述，我們預計庫存下降的速度將比以往放緩。 9月份季度的非現金支出包括約6,700萬美元的股權激勵費用、7,600萬美元的折舊費用和1,400萬美元的攤提費用。 9月份季度的資本支出為7,700萬美元，與6月份季度持平。

Spending in September was primarily centered on product development activities, and lab expansions in the United States and Asia. We ended the September quarter with approximately 17,200 regular full-time employees, which was a decrease of 200 people from the prior quarter.

9月的支出主要集中在產品研發活動以及美國和亞洲的實驗室擴建。截至9月底，我們約有17,200名正式全職員工，較上一季減少了200人。

Most of this decrease is related to the restructuring actions we took earlier in the calendar year with the timing of the headcount reduction occurring in the September quarter.

這項降幅主要與我們在今年稍早採取的重組措施有關，裁員時間安排在9月的季度。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December 2023 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $3.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 47%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This level of gross margin reflects a continued favorable customer mix, albeit not quite as favorable as we saw in September. Operating margin of 29.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

現在我來談談我們對2023年12月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計營收為37億美元，上下浮動3億美元。毛利率為47%，上下浮動1個百分點。這一毛利率水準反映了我們持續良好的客戶組合，儘管略遜於9月份的情況。營業利益率為29.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。

The operating expenses embedded in this guidance increased from the September level due to growth in R&D. I'd also just mention that the [March 2024] (corrected by company after the call) quarter will be higher as it includes an extra week in the fiscal quarter, which occurs every few years. It's going to be a 14-week quarter in March. And finally, earnings per share of $7, plus or minus $0.75 based on a share count of approximately 132 million shares.

由於研發投入成長，本次業績指引中包含的營運費用較9月份增加。另外，需要說明的是，2024年3月季度（公司在電話會議後已更正）的業績數據將會更高，因為該季度包含每隔幾年一次的額外一周，即14週。最後，基於約1.32億股的股本，預計每股收益為7美元，上下浮動0.75美元。

With our December quarter guidance, we see solid performance in both revenue and profitability. Lam is delivering strong financial results and technology leadership to our customers as we develop solutions for the next industry inflections.

根據我們對12月季度的業績預期，我們預期營收和獲利能力都將保持穩健成長。 Lam公司在為因應未來產業變革開發解決方案的同時，也為客戶帶來了強勁的財務業績和技術領先地位。

And before I wrap up, I'd just like to mention two things as you think about modeling our business into 2024. The first is that we're currently experiencing favorable customer mix that may not continue at the same level going into next year. This may create near-term headwinds for gross margin. Second, given all the opportunities we see in long-term technology collections like gate all around, dry resist, advanced packaging, changing metallization schemes and continued evolution of other 3D structures like DRAM, 2024 may be an R&D spending growth year to take advantage of these future opportunities that we see.

在結束前，我想先就我們2024年的業務發展規劃提兩點。首先，我們目前擁有較有利的客戶組合，但這種狀況可能不會持續到明年。這可能會在短期內對毛利率造成不利影響。其次，考慮到我們看到的許多長期技術機遇，例如環繞柵極、乾式光阻、先進封裝、金屬化工藝的變革以及其他3D結構（如DRAM）的持續發展，2024年或許會成為我們加大研發投入的一年，以把握這些未來的發展機會。

As a result, it's possible that historic leverage we've delivered takes a temporary pause. We will obviously continue to aggressively drive the operational efficiencies that we always have, and our longer-term profitability objectives remain unchanged. Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

因此，我們先前取得的歷史性槓桿效應可能會暫時中止。我們當然會繼續大力提升營運效率，一如既往，我們的長期獲利目標也保持不變。主持人，以上就是我們事先準備好的發言。現在，我和提姆想開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

And today's first question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

今天第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

I had a question on China. Obviously, you've had a huge second half in China. Doug, it sounds like you think it's going to remain pretty strong in December. It sounds like maybe it's going to remain close to 50% of the mix. But it sounds like you're a little worried about it -- sorry, not worry, but you think that it could actually come off a bit during the first half of '24. Can you talk about that? What are the puts and the takes. I ask because if you sort of back into where they're running in terms of WFE, they're running probably in the high 20s, if I just take the back half of the year. So I'm wondering if that can sustain.

我有一個關於中國的問題。顯然，你們中國市場下半年表現非常強勁。道格，聽起來你認為12月份中國市場會保持強勁勢頭，佔比可能接近50%。但你似乎有點擔心——抱歉，不是擔心，而是你認為2024年上半年中國市場可能會下滑。能談談這方面嗎？你的看法是什麼？我這麼問是因為，如果從WFE（週轉率）來看，他們下半年的周轉率可能在20%以上。所以我想知道這種勢頭能否持續。

Yes, Tim, let me start on that, and then I'll let Doug add. I think that when we think about China investment. Clearly, it has been strong as we've messaged. Part of the mix story and why it's such a high percentage of our mix right now also has to do with the fact that other customers not spending. And we all know that memory and NAND in particular, is a extreme lows. As we look into next year, and it's a bit too early for us to give 2024 WFE, so we're not going to do that.

是的，提姆，我先說說這個，然後讓道格補充。我認為，當我們談到中國投資時，正如我們之前所強調的，中國投資一直很強大。中國投資在我們投資組合中佔比如此之高，部分原因在於其他客戶的支出減少。我們都知道，內存，尤其是NAND閃存，目前處於極低水平。展望明年，現在預測2024年WFE還為時過早，所以我們暫時不做預測。

We think about longer-term China and this overall move towards regionalization that you see people investing for long-term demand in mature nodes. And so we're not going to comment on whether we think it's sustainable in the first half or the second half of next year. But long term, we do believe that there's growing demand in mature nodes that will drive China investment in a rather sustainable manner for the next several years.

我們著眼於中國長遠發展，以及整體區域化趨勢，即人們正在成熟節點進行長期投資以滿足長期需求。因此，我們不打算評論這種趨勢在明年上半年或下半年是否可持續。但從長遠來看，我們相信成熟節點不斷增長的需求將在未來幾年以較為永續的方式推動中國投資。

And yes, Tim, just to parse my comments a little bit. I said we believe China will continue to be strong. But I also said, albeit not quite as strong perhaps as we saw in September. And as Tim alluded to, the China investment is not going away. I don't know, if it's up, down, sideways next year, but it's not going away. They're investing for opportunities in the market that they see. I think we're hopeful the rest of the market begins to recover at some point because it's at pretty low points, and that will mitigate the China mix to a certain extent.

是的，提姆，我再稍微解釋一下我剛才的話。我說我們相信中國經濟會繼續保持強勁勢頭。但我也說過，雖然可能不如九月那麼強。正如提姆所提到的，對中國的投資不會消失。我不知道明年中國市場會是上漲、下跌還是橫盤整理，但它不會消失。他們正在投資他們所看到的市場機會。我認為我們希望其他市場也能在某個時候開始復甦，因為目前市場整體處於低位，這將在一定程度上緩解中國投資的影響。

Can you just talk also your major peer that makes litho talked this morning about there being a handful of fabs now with these new restrictions that they can't ship into. It's predominantly a litho thing, but can you just talk about sort of where we are in terms of restrictions? And then also, when you're talking about that, what's the commonality in the etch and dep tool set for, let's say, 28-nanometer versus, let's say, 7-nanometer because technically, you can buy tools for 28-nanometer and you can use them to pattern 7-nanometer from a dep etch point of view. It's not as efficient, but you can do it. Can you just talk about that?

您能否也談談您那位主要從事光刻工藝的同行今天早上提到的情況？他提到現在有一些晶圓廠因為一些新的限製而無法供貨。這主要與光刻工藝有關，您能否談談我們目前面臨的限制？另外，說到這些限制，28奈米和7奈米製程的蝕刻和沈積工具集有哪些共通之處？因為從技術上講，您可以購買28奈米的工具，然後從沉積蝕刻的角度來看，用它們來製作7奈米的圖案。雖然效率不高，但確實可行。您能否談談這方面？

Yes, Tim, I guess what I'd say is we've reviewed the details of the regulations and our early assessment is we don't see any material impact to our forecasted business. Now some of that has to do with the fact that we've already we've already been quite restricted into what we can ship into China relative to technology engagement. And I think to your other point about tools being purchased one node and used for another. I mean that's something that obviously we're we have to follow very strict regulations to adhere to the US regulation. So I don't know that, that's something that might be quite as common as what you're saying, but it's something that we make sure that we're fully compliant.

是的，提姆，我想說的是，我們已經仔細研究了相關法規的細節，初步評估認為，這些法規不會對我們預測的業務產生任何實質影響。這部分原因在於，我們在技術合作方面，出口到中國的產品已經受到了相當大的限制。至於你提到的工具被從一個節點購買並用於另一個節點的問題，顯然，我們必須嚴格遵守美國的相關法規。所以，我不確定這種情況是否像你所說的那樣普遍，但我們會確保完全合規。

And our next question today comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

On CSBG, down 8% year-over-year to the first 9 months of the year, it did decline, as you mentioned, 5% sequentially. I assume the sequential decline was driven by continued utilization declines by your customers, especially your NAND customers, as you pointed out. You did talk about improving bit shipments for these customers in the second half of the year, pricing stabilization. It sort of seems to be reflective of this sort of steadily improving supply-demand environment.

CSBG方面，今年前9個月年減8%，正如您所說，環比下降了5%。我推測環比下降是由於您的客戶，尤其是NAND客戶的產能利用率持續下降所致，正如您所指出的。您提到這些客戶在下半年的比特出貨量有所增加，價格也趨於穩定。這似乎反映了供需環境的穩定改善。

So does the team believe that utilizations have bottomed across your memory and foundry logic customers? Have they started to at least stabilize at current levels?

那麼，團隊是否認為貴公司記憶體和代工邏輯客戶的產能利用率已經觸底？是否至少已經開始穩定在目前的水平？

Yes, Harlan, what we said was that those were the comments that, obviously, our customers are out talking about their business. There's clearly some time lag from when they start to see improvement in bit demand and in pricing before they start to, I think, bring some of that fab utilization back online. Our CSPG business, as we said, is affected by a couple of things. One is clearly, fab utilizations are at levels that we really haven't seen in terms of how much capacity has been taken offline in the NAND space. And that's affected spares. But also when you don't need to add bits and you're really trying to conserve your own spending, there's been quite a significant delay in technology upgrades to the installed base.

是的，哈蘭，我們剛才說的是，這些評論顯然是我們的客戶在談論他們的業務時提出的。很明顯，從他們開始看到比特需求和價格有所改善，到他們開始恢復部分晶圓廠的產能利用率，這之間存在著一定的滯後。正如我們所說，我們的CSPG業務受到兩方面因素的影響。一方面，很明顯，晶圓廠的利用率已經達到了前所未有的水平，NAND快閃記憶體領域停產的產能規模之大前所未見。這影響了備件供應。另一方面，當不需要增加比特，並且真正想要節省開支時，對已安裝晶片進行技術升級的進程也出現了相當大的延遲。

You have that -- those tools offline, you're not really upgrading them at this point. And so that has also hit the CSBG business in terms of our upgrades component. We anticipate that as the memory of business starts to improve, which is what seems to be the leading indicators of playing to, we would think spares would start to come back and the technology upgrades will be done because in that next leg of growth, customers are going to want to be able to scale on that next technology node for their own efficiency of manufacturing. So we're not seeing that yet, but the leading signs are that it will come.

情況就是這樣——這些工具處於離線狀態，目前你並沒有真正對它們進行升級。因此，這也對CSBG的升級業務造成了影響。我們預計，隨著業務記憶的逐漸恢復（這似乎是目前領先的指標），備件需求將會回升，技術升級也將得以完成。因為在下一階段的成長中，客戶為了提高生產效率，將會希望能夠擴展到下一代技術節點。雖然我們目前還沒有看到這種情況，但種種跡象表明，它終將到來。

And then you talked about this on the last earnings call, but you've got a strong position in stack chip architectures, advanced packaging. You guys have talked about this segment as being $200 million per year for Lam potentially with the path to $1 billion business. On HBM, specifically, where you have very strong share, right, which began to HBM 2 to 3 to 4. I think that there's a doubling of TS fees per chip, every new generation of HbM, the DRAM stock height is also growing from like 8 to like 24 at some point.

你們在上次財報電話會議上也談到了這一點，你們在堆疊晶片架構和先進封裝領域擁有強大的地位。你們曾表示，Lam公司在這個領域的年收入可能達到2億美元，並有望最終達到10億美元的規模。尤其是在HBM領域，你們擁有非常強大的市場份額，對吧？ HBM從2代到3代再到4代，我認為每顆晶片的TS費用都會翻一番，DRAM的股價也會從大約8美元漲到大約24美元。

So is this all is sort of a very strong tailwind for the team. Do you guys anticipate strong growth next year for your HBM/advanced packaging business and some of your DRAM customers are also talking about HBM driving 10% of overall industry DRAM wafer starts. Is that how you guys are seeing it as well?

所以這一切對團隊來說都是非常強勁的順風。你們預計明年HBM/先進封裝業務會強勁成長嗎？你們的一些DRAM客戶也表示，HBM將佔整個產業DRAM晶圓開工量的10%。你們也是這麼認為的嗎？

We'll let them talk about how much it affects their business. But from what it affects ours, I mean everything that you just said, I think we're generally aligned with, which is trying to drive performance generally leads to more equipment needs and more sophisticated equipment needs. And so we do see HBM, I talked about the uptick in our business that we've already seen from it.

我們會讓他們自己來談談這對他們業務的影響有多大。但就我們本身而言，我的意思是，你剛才說的所有內容，我認為我們基本上都認同，那就是提升業績通常會導致對更多、更複雜的設備的需求。因此，我們確實看到了HBM帶來的業務成長，我剛才也提到了這一點。

This appears to be an area right now that is still undersupplied, and we're seeing strong demand. And so I don't anticipate, given the interest in AI that you hear so broadly in the industry right now that our HBM business wouldn't grow pretty strongly next year.

目前看來，這方面仍供不應求，我們看到了強勁的需求。鑑於目前業界對人工智慧的廣泛關注，我預計我們的人腦血庫業務明年將實現強勁成長。

To characterize our overall advanced packaging, you mentioned a couple of hundred million. I mean, we basically said that we think that this could be a market in which our revenues actually exceeded $1 billion over the next -- sometime in the several years. And so it is a rapidly growing part of our business and one in which we have quite high share.

為了概括我們整體的先進包裝業務，您提到了數億美元的規模。我的意思是，我們基本上認為，在未來幾年內，這個市場的收入可能會超過10億美元。因此，這是我們業務中一個快速成長的部分，而且我們在這個領域擁有相當高的市場份額。

And our next question today comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

今天的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫馬利克。

Tim, my first question is on the equipment spending. I know you guys don't guide WFE until January, but your positive peer was talking about maybe a softer first half and then things picking up into 2025. And curious if you're seeing a similar profile where first half is more in like a Lamb and out like a lion.

提姆，我的第一個問題是關於設備支出。我知道你們要到一月才會發布WFE（全球設備支出）預測，但你們那位樂觀的同行提到，上半年可能比較疲軟，然後到2025年才會回升。我想知道你們是否也看到了類似的趨勢，上半年像羔羊一樣溫順，下半年像雄獅一樣強勁。

Like a Lam, out like a lion. I think that it's -- what we would say and without guiding 2024 at this point, I think it is reasonable to my prior comments that I think spending will come back cautiously. And so even though we may be seeing some of the leading indicators in some of our markets, I think people going to want to see sustainability of that condition before we start to see significant spending. So if we were to think and I believe that the general feeling is that 2025 is probably -- I mean, a lot of fabs opening, a lot of a demand out in that time frame. It's not unreasonable to think that you would ramp towards that as you move through 2024.

就像羔羊蛻變成雄獅一樣。我認為－我們現在不會對2024年做出具體預測，但我認為我之前的觀點是合理的，即我認為消費會謹慎地回升。因此，即使我們可能在一些市場看到了一些領先指標，我認為人們還是會希望看到這種狀況的可持續性，才會開始看到大規模的消費。所以，如果我們展望2025年——我相信普遍的看法是——屆時會有很多晶圓廠開業，需求也會很大。那麼，隨著2024年的推進，逐步向2025年過渡也是合理的。

And Doug, on the gross margins, are you still guiding to year-over-year growth, but down sequentially because of the mix that you talked about. Can you walk us through which innings are we in terms of the structural gross margin improvement that you guys have been talking about this year?

道格，關於毛利率，你是否仍然預計同比增長，但由於你剛才提到的產品組合問題，環比下降？你能否詳細說明一下，就你們今年一直在討論的結構性毛利率改善而言，我們目前處於哪個階段？

Yes. If you take yourself back to when we're talking about this in the March call, we're at roughly 44% gross margin, and we articulated a view that we would be able to drive a 100 basis point improvement in that from the operational efficiencies that we were undertaking during the year. And I'm super confident that that's absolutely already happened, frankly, and we'll continue to be in a good spot as we exit the year.

是的。回顧我們三月的電話會議，當時我們討論這個問題時，毛利率大約是44%。我們當時就明確表示，透過年內實施的營運效率提升措施，毛利率可以提高100個基點。坦白說，我非常有信心，這一目標已經實現，而且到年底我們仍將保持良好的業績。

Our next question today comes from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

今天的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 Krish Sankar。

I had two of them. First one, either Doug or Tim, I don't know if you guys quantified in the past, you said like the export restriction was a $2 billion impact on your revenue. Is it a way to quantify with the new export restrictions, and I noticed that ALE was added to it, where to quantify the impact in calendar '24 or incremental dollar value? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題，可能是Doug或Tim問的，我不知道你們之前有沒有量化過，你們說過出口限制對你們的收入造成了20億美元的影響。現在新的出口限制措施（我注意到其中增加了ALE）有什麼量化方法嗎？應該如何量化2024年曆年的影響，或說增量美元值？另外，我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, Krish. There really was nothing material incrementally in what was clarified, I guess it was yesterday, right? So you're right. When we came into the year, we said $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We got clarification. We could ship a little bit. We took it down to $2 billion. That's still kind of what we see this year and nothing incremental really came out yesterday.

是的，克里什。昨天澄清的內容確實沒有什麼實質的進展，對吧？你說得對。年初的時候，我們預期營收在20億到25億美元之間。後來情況有所澄清，我們可以交付一部分，於是把目標下修到20億美元。今年我們仍然預期收入會達到這個水平，昨天也沒有什麼實質的進展。

The reason for that, Krish, is that in many of those cases, while specific tools might have been now or technology is now called out, they were already the types of tools that were used to produce the technologies that were below the limits that were already allowed. So we had already recognized that in our initial statement.

克里什，原因在於，在許多情況下，雖然現在可能提到了具體的工具或技術，但它們原本就是用來生產那些低於既定限度的技術的工具。所以我們在最初的聲明中就已經意識到了這一點。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just a follow-up and to ask this question last time, too, kind of like with respect to the whole cryo etch, dielectric etch versus tell announcing a similar product. Can you give us like an update on where you are market-share-wise, on the dialectric etch side? And is the cryo etch having any impact? Because my understanding is cryo etch doe have the throughput, but it's probably a negative from selling number of two for dielectric etch NAND applications. I'm just trying to figure out how to handicap that.

明白了，明白了，這很有幫助。還有一個後續問題，也是我最後一次問這個問題，是關於低溫蝕刻、介質蝕刻以及你們即將推出的類似產品的。能否更新一下你們在介質蝕刻方面的市佔率？低溫蝕刻是否產生了影響？因為據我了解，低溫蝕刻雖然產能高，但對於介質蝕刻NAND應用來說，銷量可能只有兩塊，這可能會造成負面影響。我只是想弄清楚如何應對這種情況。

Yes. I mean there's no change from what we've said before. I mean Lam is a leader in high aspect ratio etch without a doubt. And I think that also on the last call, I did point out the fact that while a lot has been made of cryo or the very cold etching conditions, this is already standard Lam condition. And so to a certain extent, many as we talk about our business and any impact that you talked about throughput, those are already factored into our commentary. So it's not something that's new to us. And I think that in general, our focus in NAND has been and always will be and memory in general, driving productivity at every technology node that goes into our projected growth outlook that we always talk about.

是的。我的意思是，這和我們之前說的沒什麼兩樣。毫無疑問，Lam 在高深寬比蝕刻領域處於領先地位。而且我認為，在上次電話會議上，我也指出，雖然低溫刻蝕或超低溫刻蝕條件備受關注，但這已經是 Lam 的標準製程了。因此，在某種程度上，當我們談論業務以及您提到的產能影響時，這些因素都已納入我們的考慮範圍。所以，這對我們來說並不陌生。我認為，總的來說，我們在 NAND 快閃記憶體以及整個記憶體領域的關注點一直是並將繼續是，在每個技術節點上提升生產力，這與我們一直以來所展望的成長前景息息相關。

And our next question today comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about the DRAM uptick that you saw in the quarter. Can you kind of help us just understand qualitatively how much of that is coming from China? How much of that is from advanced packaging? Are you seeing kind of a resumption of technology spending? Just that kind of thing. What are you seeing that's driving that improvement?

我想請您談談本季DRAM需求的成長。您能否幫我們定性地分析一下，其中有多少是來自中國？有多少來自先進封裝技術？您是否看到技術支出回升？諸如此類的問題。您認為推動這項成長的因素是什麼？

I guess, Joe, what I would point to, and I'll let Tim add. Yes, China was a part of it, but it's not all of it. There was an earlier question about, hey, where we at with a hide-bandwidth memory. Yes, it's getting pulled in. I mean customers want it sooner, we can ship. You've got a transition from DDR4 to DDR5 with these new CPUs that are out there. So that also is a little bit of a bright spot. So I guess I'd point to both of those things as part of what we saw in DRAM.

我想，喬，我想指出的是，提姆可以補充。沒錯，中國是其中一部分，但並非全部。之前有人問過，我們目前在隱藏頻寬記憶體方面進展如何。是的，它正在被引入。我的意思是，客戶希望盡快拿到產品，而我們也能盡快出貨。隨著這些新型CPU的出現，DDR4正在向DDR5過渡。所以這也是一個亮點。因此，我想指出這兩點，它們都屬於DRAM領域發展的一部分。

Yes. No, I think that's pretty much it. I mean, as we've said before, you also have this transition to higher die sizes, which ultimately will be a driver of wafer outs and therefore, equipment demand and probably starting to see some of the initial phases of that right now as well.

是的。不，我想差不多就是這樣了。我的意思是，正如我們之前所說，晶片尺寸也在不斷增大，這最終將推動晶圓產量，從而增加設備需求，而且我們現在可能也開始看到一些初期階段了。

Great. And then in your upfront remarks, Tim, I think you had talked about trailing etch mature node somewhat weaker outside of China. Can you -- is there something there that could be a trend? Or is that just kind of more of a one quarter phenomenon?

好的。提姆，在你之前的發言中，我想你提到過中國以外地區的後蝕成熟節點強度略弱。你覺得這算是一種趨勢嗎？還是說這只是個別季度的現象？

Well, obviously, since we're not guiding future quarters, I mean, I don't -- I think it's just somewhat natural in general. I mean, we've seen in certain segments, very high spend rates as companies have looked to bring on capacity to meet demand in these mature nodes. And our industry goes through digestion phases where those tools have then started going up, and you get output and you sort of figure out whether demand is there, that requires more and it's what makes our investment cycle somewhat lumpy. And I think that's what we're really looking at right now. And if long-term demand, which we believe long-term demand for semiconductors is growing, eventually, you come back and put in more capacity into those fabs as well.

顯然，由於我們不對未來幾季的業績進行預測，我的意思是，我認為這總體上是比較自然的。我們看到，在某些領域，由於企業尋求擴大產能以滿足成熟節點的需求，支出率非常高。我們的產業會經歷一個消化階段，在這個階段，這些設備開始投入使用，產量也隨之增加，然後企業會判斷需求是否充足，是否需要更多產能，這使得我們的投資週期略顯波動。我認為這正是我們目前關注的重點。如果長期需求持續成長（我們相信半導體的長期需求正在成長），最終企業也會回過頭來，為這些晶圓廠增加更多產能。

And our next question today comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a follow-up question to Joe's question on non-China trailing etch. And Tim, I apologize if I missed this, but can you point to any end markets or any device types that's driving the near-term weakness? And can you remind us how big or small of a market, this is for you guys today?

我有一個後續問題，是針對喬關於非中國市場拖曳蝕刻的問題。提姆，如果我錯過了，請見諒，你能指出哪些終端市場或設備類型導致了近期的疲軟嗎？你能否提醒我們一下，對你們來說，這個市場如今的規模有多大？

Toshiya, I'll take it and then let Tim add on. It's a broad set of customers investing when you look at this, the specialty nodes. I mean, it's across multiple customers unlike leading edge foundry as an example. And so I can't really point to any one or another for you. And quite frankly, I think we all know there's inventory out there in a lot of these device types, but these are long-term investments as well, right? This isn't something that comes in one quarter and then goes away just because of what's happening in the near-term marketplace. But it is in any one segment or another, Toshiya, just kind of the broad set of customers.

Toshiya，我先回答，然後讓Tim補充。從這個角度來看，投資特種節點的客戶群非常廣泛。我的意思是，它涉及眾多客戶，不像領先的代工廠那樣。所以我無法具體指出是哪一家。坦白說，我們都知道很多這類裝置都有庫存，但這些也是長期投資，對吧？它不會因為短期市場波動而曇花一現。 Toshiya，無論哪個細分市場，投資都涉及廣泛的客戶群。

Yes. And Toshiya, the only thing I would add is I think this is going to be an area that I think we're going to have to sort of acceptably a little harder to forecast from the standpoint. It's also a part of the market that is impacted by a number of the different chip stack type government support activities around the world. And so you may see as certain regions try to build up their capabilities. We may not be able to point in that moment to the demand being greater than the supply, and that's why they're investing. As Doug said, this is about long-term build-out what I think everybody sees is a much bigger demand for these types of devices over all these various types of applications in automotive and IoT and CMOS image sensors, et cetera, et cetera, over time.

是的。 Toshiya，我唯一要補充的是，我認為這方面我們可能需要稍微難以預測。此外，這部分市場也受到世界各地各種晶片堆疊類型政府支援活動的影響。因此，您可能會看到，隨著某些地區努力提升自身能力，我們可能無法立即指出需求大於供應，而這正是他們進行投資的原因。正如Doug所說，這關乎長期發展，我認為隨著時間的推移，大家都會看到，在汽車、物聯網、CMOS影像感測器等各種應用領域，對這類裝置的需求將會大幅成長。

Got it. I appreciate the color. And then as my follow-up, one for Doug, on the 2024 model. You talked about mix normalizing and you guys potentially experiencing some headwinds in gross margin. You also talked about '24 potentially being a growth year from an R&D spending perspective. So I guess on gross margins, I guess what's the baseline that we should be working off of? Is the Q4 rate a good starting point? Or is that still kind of high given where China is and then from an R&D spending perspective, I guess, relative to answer if you can kind of hold our hand and quantify how low leverage could be in '24 versus history that would be super helpful.

明白了。我很喜歡這個顏色。接下來，我想問Doug一個關於2024年模型的問題。您提到產品組合趨於正常化，以及您可能在毛利率方面遇到一些阻力。您也提到，從研發投入的角度來看，2024年可能會是成長年。所以，關於毛利率，我們該以什麼為基準呢？第四季的毛利率是一個好的起點嗎？考慮到中國目前的狀況，這個數字是否仍然偏高？另外，從研發投入的角度來看，如果您能具體說明一下，2024年的槓桿率與歷史相比會有多低，那就太好了。

All right, Toshiya, I'll give you a couple of data points, maybe for a little bit of color, but I'm not going to guide next year. Yes, we're still at an elevated level of gross margin from customer mix relative to where I think things normalize. Maybe a good way to think of it is go back to the June quarter, which was before we saw a lot of this China favorable mix. That's not an unreasonable baseline to start from for gross margin. So anyway, I don't know if that's helpful.

好的，Toshiya，我給你一些數據，或許能讓你更清楚地了解情況，但我不會預測明年的業績。是的，就我認為正常水平而言，我們目前的客戶組合毛利率仍然偏高。或許你可以回顧六月的季度，那時我們還沒有看到這麼多來自中國的有利組合。這可以作為一個合理的毛利率基準。總之，我不知道這些資訊是否有幫助。

And then I guess what I described from an R&D standpoint. R&D, quite frankly, has to follow a cadence independent of the level of revenue sometimes. I don't know what WFE next year is going to be. I don't know what our top line is going to be quite yet. We'll give you some color next quarter. But I do know we see an enormous number of opportunities around these technology inflections that if we don't invest right now 3, 4 years from now, we'll look back and say, why didn't we, right? Gate-all-around Tim talked about backside power. There's high bandwidth, there's so many things that play to the strength of what we do well. So I think if you look at the December quarter and compared to September, spending up, the March quarter independent of the fact that we're going to invest more in R&D is a 14-week quarter. So you got to comprehend that. And then we're going to grow R&D as we go into next year, maybe a little bit independent of what revenue turns out to be.

然後，我想從研發的角度來說，我剛才描述的就是研發。坦白說，研發的節奏有時必須獨立於營收水準。我不知道明年的WFE會是多少，也不知道我們的總營收會是多少。下個季度我們會公佈一些細節。但我知道，我們看到了圍繞這些技術轉折點的大量機會，如果我們現在不投資，三、四年後我們會回頭問自己，為什麼當初沒有投資，對吧？ Tim在Gate-allaround上談到了後端優勢。頻寬很高，有很多因素可以發揮我們的優勢。所以，我認為，如果你看一下12月季度和9月季度，考慮到研發支出增加，3月季度（即使我們會增加研發投入）是一個14週的季度。所以你必須理解這一點。然後，我們將在明年加大研發投入，這或許與最終的收入情況略有關係。

I guess what I would want you to think about is, historically, when business grows at Lam, you've seen nice leverage in the model. It's maybe going to flatten out a little bit, honestly, is how I'm trying to like, counsel you to think about it a little bit. And again, that's because we see a lot of opportunities that we think played at the strength and is going to set us up to win in the longer term. I don't know if that helps, Toshiya.

我想讓你思考的是，從歷史經驗來看，當Lam的業務成長時，這種模式能帶來不錯的槓桿效應。說實話，我建議你稍微考慮一下，這種成長可能會趨於平緩。再次強調，這是因為我們看到了許多機會，我們認為這些機會能夠充分發揮公司的優勢，並為我們長期的成功奠定基礎。不知道這是否對你有幫助，Toshiya。

Yes, it makes sense. I appreciate the color, Doug.

是的，有道理。我很喜歡這個顏色，道格。

Our next question today comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

今天的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的維韋克·阿亞。

For the first one, I'm trying to understand the usual delta between the recovery in your CSBG business and your memory systems. So how effective of a leading indicator is CSBG recovery? And what is it telling you right now about conceptually when memory system orders recover? Like is it in Q1, Q2, Q3, of next year, like what has been that delta historically? And what is that telling you right now about when your memory system orders can recover?

首先，我想了解貴公司CSBG業務復甦與記憶體系統業務復甦之間的通常差異。 CSBG業務復甦作為領先指標的有效性如何？它目前能從概念上告訴您記憶體系統訂單何時復甦？例如，是在第一季、第二季、第三季度，還是明年？歷史上這個差異是怎麼樣的？它目前又能告訴您內存系統訂單何時能復甦？

Yes. I mean we've -- first, I'd point out the fact that it's been a long time if ever that we've seen fab utilization is quite this low. I mean our prior commentary had been that spares generally grows every year because the installed base continues to get bigger. One piece of that is true is the installed base continues to get a lot bigger. And in fact, we've said it's up more than 40% since the last cyclical downturn. And so the fact that we've seen spares and upgrades and all of these things sort of be off all at one time is pretty unique.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我想指出的是，晶圓廠的利用率如此之低，我們可能很久沒見過了，甚至可以說是從未見過。我們之前的評論是，備件數量通常每年都會增長，因為裝置容量不斷擴大。這其中有一點是事實，那就是裝置容量確實在大幅成長。事實上，我們說過，自上次週期性衰退以來，裝置容量已經成長了40%以上。因此，我們看到備件、升級以及所有這些項目同時停滯的情況非常罕見。

We are anticipating that as fab utilization starts back, we'll see spares come back. And I think the one thing that will come back, and it's a little hard to predict is certain is the technology upgrade portion of this. It's been now a couple of years since any of these tools have been upgraded, and that will have to happen.

我們預期隨著晶圓廠產能利用率的恢復，備品供應也會隨之恢復。我認為唯一可以確定會恢復的，雖然很難預測，是技術升級部分。這些設備已經兩年沒有升級了，而這勢在必行。

In terms of your comment about offset, I think we'll -- typically, as customers start to turn the tools back on, you're probably a couple of quarters away from seeing further investments in the technology upgrades. And then I think when you're really talking about capacity adds, it's hard to predict what that time frame is because it really depends on many other factors about our customers' use of long-term demand.

關於您提到的抵銷問題，我認為通常情況下，隨著客戶開始重新啟用設備，可能還需要幾個季度才能看到對技術升級的進一步投資。而說到產能擴張，很難預測具體時間，因為這實際上取決於客戶長期需求的許多其他因素。

So I think the one thing we're certain is that we're at very low points now. We would anticipate things like utilization and spares and upgrades to start improving next year. And beyond that, I think we'll wait until January to give you a better view.

所以我覺得我們可以肯定的是，我們現在正處於非常低的階段。我們預計明年利用率、備件供應和升級改造等情況將開始好轉。至於其他方面，我想我們會等到一月再提供給大家更詳細的資訊。

For my follow-up, another China-related question. Part of your second half strength came, I believe, from clarification of some rules. And I was hoping you would quantify how much of that strength you saw in your shipments came from just that clarification? And does that kind of spill over to early '24. I'm just trying to tease apart how much is sort of sustainable China strength versus how much is potentially from one-off clarification in rules? Or maybe those were not one-off, right? Maybe they're also sustainable. So just if you could give us some way to guide us to how we should think about China conceptually in your first half of next year.

我的後續問題也與中國有關。我認為，你們下半年業績成長的部分原因在於一些規則的澄清。我希望你們能量化一下，你們的出貨量成長中，有多少是源自於這些規則的澄清？這種成長是否會延續到2024年初？我只是想弄清楚，有多少是可持續的中國市場成長，又有多少是可能由一次性的規則澄清帶來的？或者，也許這些規則澄清並非一次性的，對嗎？也許它們也是可持續的。所以，如果你們能就明年上半年你們對中國市場的預期提供一些指導，那就太好了。

Yes, Vivek, we're not going to guide you next year quite yet. But the clarification of the rules we described isn't changing, right? So we understood one node that a certain customer was doing was okay to ship to. The rules didn't change. We just had to do a little work to understand that. Collectively, as an industry, that's not going to go away. Having said that also, what our commentary on the call so far has been, I don't know if China is up now on our sideways next tier, but it's not going away. When we talk to our customers in China, they all communicate roadmaps that have multiyear horizons in front of them. Nothing new came from the regulations that you saw yesterday. So I see a level of sustainability in China as we go into next year and frankly, beyond. They have long-term objectives.

是的，Vivek，我們目前還無法就明年的計畫給予具體指引。但我們之前解釋的規則並沒有改變，對吧？所以我們了解到，某個客戶正在使用的某個節點是可以出貨的。規則沒有改變，我們只是需要花點時間去理解。從整個產業的角度來看，這一點不會改變。話雖如此，就我們目前在電話會議上的發言來看，我不知道中國現在是否已經進入了我們設想的下一個階段，但它不會消失。當我們與中國的客戶溝通時，他們都分享了未來多年的發展路線圖。昨天你看到的那些法規並沒有帶來任何新的改變。所以我認為，明年乃至更遠的未來，中國市場都將保持一定的永續性。他們有長遠的目標。

Our next question today comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

今天的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

For my first question, you talked about in your WFE uptick on non-LAM markets driving some of that. Am I oversimplifying? Are you just talking about litho or do you have something else in mind when you made that statement?

關於我的第一個問題，您在WFE報告中提到，非LAM市場的成長是造成這種情況的部分原因。我的理解是否過於簡化了？您指的是光刻技術，還是有其他意義？

Stacy, it's primarily litho. It's litho and these restricted fabs in China that we didn't have complete visibility into what they were doing, frankly. It was those two.

史泰西，主要是光刻技術。坦白說，就是光刻技術，還有中國那些我們對其運作情況並不完全了解的晶圓廠。就是這兩家。

Got it. You have better visibility now?

明白了。現在視線更清晰了嗎？

I think we do. That's why we updated the number. We never get this exactly right, but we try to tell you what we think of it now.

我覺得我們確實做到了。所以我們更新了數據。我們永遠無法做到完全準確，但我們會盡力告訴您我們現在的看法。

Stacy, some of our visibility comes from the fact that our peer companies are reporting on the business and really their markets. So as the year goes on, we try to give you a view of the whole market, but obviously, we're most accurate on the Lam business.

Stacy，我們的一些知名度來自於同業公司發布的業務和市場報告。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會努力為您提供整個市場的概覽，但顯然，我們對Lam公司業務的分析最為準確。

Got it. Got it. But to be clear, I think you said there's no change to your forecast for the Lam business for the year, whatever that forecast is.

明白了，明白了。但為了確認一下，我想您說過您對林氏集團今年的業務預測沒有變化，無論預測結果如何。

That's right. Because we understand that WFE quite well.

沒錯。因為我們對WFE（工作場所體驗）非常了解。

Got it. Got it. And so for my follow-up, I want to go back to the leverage question for next year. So I understand you're talking about like leverage, like maybe flattening out. Was that just a statement you just think OpEx, I mean, just to put on table OpEx growing with revenue, whatever revenue is? Or given the gross margin compression that we'll probably see at least from the current level, like do you think operating margins year-over-year could actually go -- could decline next calendar year? Or like just how do we think about those different pieces?

明白了，明白了。那麼，我的後續問題是，我想回到明年槓桿率的問題。我理解您指的是槓桿率，例如可能會趨於平穩。您剛才說的「營運支出」是指營運支出會隨著收入成長而成長嗎？還是說考慮到我們可能會看到的毛利率下降（至少會低於目前的水平），您認為明年的營運利潤率比去年同期會下降嗎？或者說，我們該如何看待這些不同的因素？

Stacy, if you look at what Lam has done over the last, I don't know, a decade, frankly. We've expanded margin as revenue has grown. At this point, I'm not sure what revenue is going to be next year, but I know we're going to invest more in R&D. That's what I'm trying to describe because we see all of these opportunities. And yes, I referred to the fact that we've got pretty favorable customer mix that likely mitigates somewhat next year. And so when you think about those two things, it's possible to think about kind of margin flattening off for a period of time. Our long-term profit objectives are unchanged. So I do want to reiterate that point as well.

史泰西，如果你看看林氏過去十年（說實話，我都不確定）的成就，你會發現，隨著營收成長，我們的利潤率也隨之提升。目前，我還不確定明年的營收會是多少，但我知道我們會加大研發投入。我之所以想表達這一點，是因為我們看到了很多機會。是的，我之前也提到過，我們擁有相當有利的客戶組合，這可能會在一定程度上緩解明年的挑戰。所以，考慮到這兩點，利潤率可能會在一段時間內趨於平穩。但我們的長期獲利目標不變。因此，我也想再次強調這一點。

Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Srini Pajjuri。

I have a couple of longer-term questions, Tim. I guess if I look at the last 5 years, your logic and foundry business has been growing almost at a 30% rate. And historically, your memory was close to 60%. And now I think we're at the bottom kind of moving from 27% to 38% or so this quarter. I'm just curious, how do you think about the mix longer term, I guess, when things normalize for you? And what is, I think, in your view, what do you think is the ideal mix for you? And what implications, if any, that might have on your top line growth going forward?

提姆，我有幾個關於長期發展的問題。我想，如果回顧過去五年，你們的邏輯晶片和晶圓代工業務的成長率接近30%。而從歷史資料來看，你們的記憶體業務成長率接近60%。現在，我認為我們正處於低谷，本季正從27%左右回升到38%左右。我只是好奇，從長遠來看，當一切恢復正常後，你們是如何看待這種業務組合的？你們認為理想的業務組合是什麼？這會對你們未來的營收成長產生什麼影響？

Yes. It's a good question. It's a hard question to answer because the actual. Our view is we want more of everything. So we're not looking to reduce our position in memory just to make the mix look better. So we try hard every day. We have a fantastic position in memory, and we think there's still more to come there as over the next decade, I mean, NAND is going to scale customers saying to 1,000 layers, and that's a tremendous opportunity for Lam. DRAM going to 3D around the end of the decade, tremendous opportunity for Lam. So I'm afraid the memory side will keep growing simply because it's so well suited to our strengths. But you have heard us talk a lot about the fact that we see huge opportunity in the foundry logic side as well. And when Doug just talked about spending, I mean, I've tried to lay out for you in the last several quarters, the breadth of opportunities that are ahead of the company, many of which -- not all, but many of which are on the foundry logic side.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。這個問題很難回答，因為實際情況是，我們希望在所有領域都取得更大的成就。因此，我們不會為了讓業務組合看起來更好而減少在記憶體領域的投入。我們每天都在努力。我們在記憶體領域擁有非常強大的實力，而且我們認為未來十年還有更大的發展空間。我的意思是，NAND快閃記憶體將擴展到1000層，這對Lam來說是一個巨大的機會。 DRAM也將在本十年末期邁向3D時代，這對Lam來說也是一個巨大的機會。因此，我認為記憶體業務將繼續成長，因為它與我們的優勢非常契合。但您也多次聽到我們談到，我們也看到了代工邏輯領域的巨大機會。正如Doug剛才提到的支出問題，在過去的幾個季度裡，我一直在向您闡述公司面臨的廣泛機遇，其中許多——並非全部，但很多——都與代工邏輯領域相關。

I mean just to kind of recap some of those, I mean, the dry EUV photoresist and develop. When we said that's $1.5 billion opportunity over 5 years. And when you get towards the tail end of that 5 years, I mean, that's a revenue that's growing with the number of expanding EUV layers at every technology node after that. That's primarily foundry logic business.

我的意思是，簡單回顧一下，像是乾式EUV光阻和顯影製程。我們說過，這在五年內蘊藏著15億美元的商機。而且，到了五年末期，隨著之後每個技術節點EUV層數的增加，這部分收入還會持續成長。這主要涉及代工邏輯晶片業務。

We talked about gate all around, about $1 billion incremental opportunity for Lam introduces opportunities to win new tools and selective etch and ALD. And so that's same expansion for us in foundry logic and opportunity to grow. We talked about advanced packaging. I mean you've already seen what's happened with not only the HBM side of AI, but also the entire formation of these big AI systems using interposers. Lam's invested now in panel processing as a way to ultimately bring down the costs of some of this chiplet -- these chiplet applications.

我們討論了各個環節，Lam公司獲得了約10億美元的增量機會，這帶來了贏得新設備、選擇性蝕刻和原子層沉積（ALD）的機會。因此，這對我們來說也是代工邏輯領域的擴張和成長機會。我們也討論了先進封裝。我的意思是，您已經看到了人工智慧領域（不僅是HBM方面）以及使用中介層建立大型人工智慧系統的整體發展。 Lam公司現在投資於面板加工，最終目的是降低一些晶片組應用的成本。

And then finally, today, I just talked about backside power distribution as a new way of being very creative about how you use that backside of the wafer is additional real estate and it opens up a lot of new opportunities for us, and that's primarily a foundry logic application as well. And so really, what we're talking about is Lam has a long way to go to expand our SAM, especially on the foundry logic side. That's what we're investing for. And each of these is a $1 billion-plus opportunity for Lam over the next several years. And so we're pretty excited about that. But we're not giving up on our strong memory positions.

最後，今天我談到了背面電源分配，這是一種非常有創意地利用晶圓背面空間的新方法，它為我們開闢了許多新的機遇，這主要應用於代工邏輯電路領域。所以，我們想說的是，Lam 在擴展其 SAM（自組裝晶片市場）方面還有很長的路要走，尤其是在代工邏輯電路領域。這正是我們投資的方向。未來幾年，這些領域將為 Lam 帶來超過 10 億美元的商機。我們對此感到非常興奮。但我們不會放棄我們在記憶體領域的優勢地位。

I appreciate that answer. And then my quick follow-up on the HBM, I guess, technology itself. A lot of questions have been asked already. Just on the capital intensity of HBM. Tim, I mean, I know you said the die size is larger and I guess, cycle times are longer, et cetera. But is there a way to think about capital intensity per wafer or per bit? How we should think about HBM versus traditional DDR?

感謝您的解答。接下來我想快速補充一下關於HBM技術本身的問題。之前已經有很多問題被問到了，特別是關於HBM的資本密集度。 Tim，我知道您說過晶片尺寸更大，週期時間更長等等。但是，有沒有辦法從每個晶圓或每個位元的角度來考慮資本密集度呢？我們該如何看待HBM與傳統DDR的差異？

Well, I think it's a -- I don't know that we've quantified that number, but it's -- it obviously is a much higher performance die that our device, and it does -- it is bigger and takes more capital. And so therefore, it's a performance-driven application. From our perspective, though, what really is interesting is that many of the new tools that get added to enable HBM or Lam tools or tools that are in our market, things like silicon etch and copper plating for the TSV formation. And so that's what really makes it an even better transition for an etch and dep company like Lam.

嗯，我認為——我不知道我們是否已經量化了這個數字，但顯然，它是一款性能遠高於我們現有設備的晶片，而且它的尺寸更大，需要更多的資金投入。因此，它是一款性能驅動型應用。不過，從我們的角度來看，真正有趣的是，許多新增的工具，例如用於矽蝕刻和銅電鍍以形成TSV的工具，都為HBM或Lam工具，或者我們市場上現有的工具提供了支援。因此，對於像Lam這樣的蝕刻和沈積公司來說，這才是真正使其轉型更加順利的原因。

And our next question today comes from Brian Chin with Stifel.

今天的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Brian Chin。

So about a week ago, the U.S. relaxed its licensing requirements for some foreign companies that operate more advanced fabs in China. I know it's fairly recent, but have you seen a positive impact yet from this change in the licensing policy. I did note that in talking about China remaining a good concentration in the December quarter. It sounds like maybe there could be some shifting there between local and maybe foreign domiciled companies?

大約一週前，美國放寬了對一些在中國經營更先進晶圓廠的外國公司的許可要求。我知道這項政策變化是最近才實施的，但您是否已經看到它產生了積極影響？我之前提到過，中國在去年12月的季度仍然是一個不錯的投資集中度。這聽起來似乎可能會出現一些本土公司和外資公司之間的轉移？

Yes. It's pretty -- that comment is pretty recent. But I think relative to multinationals, wherever they operate, whether China or certainty of being able to make the investment and benefit from that long term is very important. So obviously, in the last couple of weeks, we haven't seen any movement that we had talked about. I think long term, it allows people -- it allows our customers to ultimately make the right decisions for them about where to invest. And that is especially true when you think about our installed base and the upgrades to the installed base and a customer willingness to sort of move forward with those upgrades with certainties.

是的。這確實——那條評論是最近才發的。但我認為，對於跨國公司而言，無論它們在哪裡運營，無論是在中國還是其他地方，能夠確定地進行投資並從中長期獲益都非常重要。顯然，在過去幾周里，我們沒有看到任何我們之前討論過的進展。我認為從長遠來看，這最終能讓我們的客戶做出最適合他們的投資決策。考慮到我們現有的設備基礎、現有設備的升級以及客戶在確定性的基礎上推進這些升級的意願，這一點尤其如此。

That's helpful. And then a lot of questions have been asked about sort of service spares and utilization improvements. But just curious, if memory companies are kind of talking as is they'll realize some of that utilization improvement, not just through increasing wafer starts, but also through some reduction in wafer start capacity as they emphasize newer nodes or capital efficiencies on some wafer loss there. How are you thinking about how that impacts maybe the trajectory of your service and spares revenue growth in calendar '24?

這很有幫助。之後，大家提出了許多關於服務備品和利用率提升的問題。我很好奇，如果記憶體公司真的像他們所說的那樣，他們不僅會透過增加晶圓開工量來實現利用率的提升，還會透過減少晶圓開工量來實現，因為他們會更專注於重新節點或提高部分晶圓損耗的資本效率。您認為這會對貴公司2024年服務和備件收入成長軌跡產生怎樣的影響？

Well, I think that we have to see and we -- as we said about the -- it's difficult to predict the pace of the recovery. But what happens there is we're just trading off one part of our business that CSBG business for another. If upgrades happened before spares, you're right, it brings utilization down. But there's also something that we've said, which is as technology moves forward, many of those applications become more spares intensive because the processes are longer and more demanding. And so I would just say that we're going to see a rise in both parts of our business as fab operations recover and customers start to fully utilize the equipment in those fabs.

嗯，我認為我們必須拭目以待，正如我們之前所說，很難預測復甦的速度。但實際情況是，我們只是用一部分業務（例如CSBG業務）來換取另一部分業務。如果升級先於備件供應，您說得對，這會降低設備利用率。但我們也說過，隨著技術的進步，許多應用對備件的需求量會更大，因為流程更長、要求更高。因此，我認為隨著晶圓廠營運的恢復以及客戶開始充分利用晶圓廠的設備，我們兩部分業務都會有所成長。

Our next question today comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. Just two quick follow-ups. Opportunities with the back side power rate. Should I think about it more of a 3-nanometer or extension of 3-nanometer? Or are those opportunities materializing when we migrate to 2-nanometer. And I have a follow-up.

是的。還有兩個後續問題。關於背面功耗方面的機會。我應該多考慮3奈米製程還是3奈米製程的延伸？或者這些機會會在我們過渡到2奈米製程時出現？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. I think that it's still a little bit out in the future, I mean, you could go look at our customers' road maps and what they've said publicly, and I think that's probably the best way to put timing on it. I think what we're trying to highlight is the fact that our -- if you think about the challenges across almost every device, we're becoming more and more convinced that the technology solutions to those challenges involve vertical scaling, they move to 3D and you're seeing that backside power, advanced packaging, gate all around. These are -- it is something that is playing extremely well to our strengths in etch and deposition. And so timing is hard to predict, but the certain -- relative certainty of those changes happening is quite high.

是的。我認為這還有些時間，我的意思是，你可以看看我們客戶的路線圖以及他們公開的聲明，我認為這可能是確定時間的最佳方式。我們想強調的是，如果你仔細想想幾乎所有設備都面臨的挑戰，我們越來越確信，解決這些挑戰的技術方案都涉及垂直縮放，轉向3D列印，以及背面供電、先進封裝和全方位閘極等技術。這些都與我們在蝕刻和沈積方面的優勢完美契合。因此，具體時間很難預測，但這些變革發生的可能性非常高。

Got it. And a quick follow-up for Doug. What should we think of a normalized or normal deferred revenue level?

明白了。還有一個問題想問Doug。我們應該如何看待正常或標準化的遞延收入水準？

Yes. Mehdi, in the past, I've suggested maybe something around $1 billion is a normalized level and we're somewhat elevated from that. The longer we remain elevated, maybe the normalized level picks up a little bit, but I'll leave that statement, what I said, maybe roughly $1 billion.

是的。邁赫迪，我之前說過，10億美元左右可能是一個正常水平，而我們目前的水平略高於這個值。如果高位持續下去，正常水平可能會略有回升，但我還是堅持我之前的說法，大概在10億美元左右。

And our next question today comes from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

今天的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

Question is about where your lead times delivery times are now and generally your ability to react when demand ultimately returns. You made some comments before that your customers you think would need to see some significant improvement before they started spending. Does this mean they have some -- a little bit of luxury of time to see things get a bit better before they start calling you and increasing orders.

問題在於您目前的交貨週期和交貨週期，以及當需求最終回升時，您應對的能力。您之前提到過，您認為客戶需要看到一些顯著的改善才會開始消費。這是否意味著他們還有一些時間，可以等到情況有所改善後再聯繫您並增加訂單？

Yes. I think that if we were to go back and talk about lead times compared to pre-COVID, I would say that generally still extended, but for a variety of reasons. I mean I talked about the investments we've made in our supply chain and our manufacturing facilities. A lot of that has to be more responsive, but I think we will be able to respond when realistically when demand starts to come back. Now in certain areas, it's a little tighter than others. And I think that's where, again, we still continue to work very closely with our customers to make sure we have good forecast as we talked about. High bandwidth memory has been an area that I think has been in tighter supply. And the good thing about the investments we made in our global operations is that in certain cases, we're able to respond a little bit more quickly when customers have urgent needs.

是的。如果回顧疫情前與現在的交貨週期，我認為總體而言交貨週期仍然延長，但這其中有很多原因。例如，我們之前提到對供應鏈和生產設施的投資。很多環節都需要提高反應速度，但我相信，一旦需求開始回升，我們就能及時回應。當然，某些領域的供應比其他領域更為緊張。我認為，正如我們之前提到的，我們仍然會與客戶保持密切合作，確保做出準確的預測。高頻寬記憶體的供應一直比較緊張。而我們在全球營運方面的投資帶來的好處是，在某些情況下，當客戶有緊急需求時，我們能夠更快地做出回應。

Got it. As a follow-up. If you give a little more clarity on the extra week you're expecting, I think it's in the March quarter, both on -- do you expect a revenue impact from that extra week? And what do you expect the cost impact to be?

明白了。還有一個後續問題。您能否更詳細地說明一下您預計的額外一周，我記得是在三月的季度？您預計這額外的一周會對收入產生影響嗎？您預計會對成本產生什麼影響？

Yes. Usually, you don't really see much of a revenue impact, frankly. You kind of manage based on what customer wants when. But I know for sure, with an extra week, 14 weeks instead of 13, you got more salary expense, you've got more time to use project materials and whatnot. I don't know. I didn't give you a specific number, but I think it's pretty well chronicled about there. When people have a quarter coming in like this, how much spending grows just because of it. I'm not going to put a number on it, but just think about 14 versus 13.

是的。坦白說，通常情況下，收入不會受到太大影響。你基本上是根據客戶的需求來安排的。但我可以肯定的是，如果工期延長一周，從13週變成14週，那麼薪資支出就會增加，專案材料和其他方面的支出也會增加。我不知道具體數字是多少，但我估計這方面應該會有比較詳細的記錄。當一個季度像這樣延長時，支出會因此增加多少。我不會給出具體的數字，但你可以想想14週和13週的差異。

Operator, we have time for one more question, please.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will be from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

In. In the past, you guys talked about memory spending recovery will go in several phases from increasing utilization to tech upgrades and then capacity expansion. One of the memory customers talk about converting some of this excess capacity to address the advanced note. Are you seeing that dynamics happening across other memory suppliers? And how does that change your view in terms of the timing of capacity expansion?

過去，你們曾討論過記憶體支出復甦將分幾個階段進行，從提高利用率到技術升級，再到產能擴張。一位記憶體客戶提到，他們正在將部分過剩產能用於滿足高階記憶體需求。你們是否在其他記憶體供應商中也觀察到了類似的趨勢？這會如何改變你們對產能擴張時機的看法？

Sidney, you were breaking up a little bit. I think you were asking about the cadence of when utilization comes back, what we think will happen, I think that was your question. And I think what I would tell you, first, spares comes back. Second, you'll see upgrades, and upgrades will have to happen obviously, some of the customer base has taken some things offline. So there's a spend that needs to occur to get that back online and up to speed and then eventually new equipment gets purchased. That hasn't changed.

西德尼，你剛才有點語無倫次。我想你是在問設備利用率何時恢復正常，以及我們認為會發生什麼，我想這就是你的問題。我的回答是，首先，備件供應會恢復。其次，你會看到設備升級，而且升級是必須的，因為部分客戶已經將一些設備下線了。所以需要投入資金才能讓這些設備恢復運作並達到預期效能，最終還需要購買新設備。這一點沒有改變。

Okay. So my question was more about some of your customers actually trying to convert some of the excess capacity to address the advanced nodes, meaning that it seems like the timeline is compressed. Are you seeing all the memory suppliers doing that?

好的。我的問題主要是關於你們的一些客戶是否正在嘗試將部分剩餘產能用於滿足先進節點的需求，這意味著時間軸似乎被壓縮了。你們是否看到所有記憶體供應商都在這樣做？

We don't talk about any one customer or another, but that will show up in that upgrades commentary that I was talking about, the stuff that gets taken offline eventually needs to get upgraded. That's the upgrade spend in CSBG.

我們不討論任何特定客戶，但這會體現在我之前提到的升級說明中，那些最終需要下線的設備都需要升級。這就是CSBG的升級支出。

Okay. That's it. Maybe last question for you. Given your position in gate-all-around, has your timeline changed at all in terms of when do you expect to see gate-all-around related revenue as compared to 3 months ago? Maybe just remind us when that is going to happen? And what are the leading indicators you watching to gauge that timeline.

好的，就這些了。也許是最後一個問題。鑑於您在 Gate-All-Around 專案中的職位，您預計何時能看到 Gate-All-Around 相關收入的時間表與三個月前相比是否有所改變？能否提醒我們一下大概何時才能實現？您主要關注哪些指標來預測這個時間表？

Well, yes, it's -- I don't know that our timing on gate-all-around around has changed much from 3 months ago. I think that, again, it's a means of scaling device performance and device performance is something is important to our customers and their [end applications]. So we're just engaged with customers to make sure our tools get qualified into those new nodes and when they decide to ramp them, we'll be ready as well.

是的，我不太確定我們圍繞「全面升級」的計劃時間安排與三個月前相比是否有太大變化。我認為，這仍然是提升設備效能的一種手段，而設備效能對我們的客戶及其終端應用至關重要。因此，我們正在與客戶溝通，確保我們的工具能夠適應這些新節點，一旦他們決定擴大生產規模，我們也能做好充分準備。

And this for our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn it back over to the management team for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我把時間交還給管理團隊，請他們做總結發言。

Thank you, operator, and we appreciate everyone for joining. Thank you for your time today.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝各位的參與。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告。您可以掛斷電話了，祝您有美好的一天。