科林研發 (LRCX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation's June 2023 Quarterly Financial Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2023 年 6 月季度財務電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Tina Correia. Ma'am, please go ahead.

請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在，我想把發言權交給蒂娜·科雷亞。女士，請發言。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，下午好！歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有總裁兼執行長Tim Archer，以及執行副總裁兼財務長Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the June 2023 quarter and our outlook for the September 2023 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call. Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the Risk Factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧我們2023年6月季度的財務業績以及我們對2023年9月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿已於今天下午太平洋時間下午1:00後發布。您也可以在公司網站的「投資者關係」版塊找到該新聞稿，以及今天電話會議的簡報。今天的簡報和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受我們在美國證券交易委員會（SEC）公開文件中揭露的「風險因素」中反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中的簡報以了解更多資訊。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation. This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website.

除非另有說明，今天討論的財務業績將以非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務數據為基礎。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的詳細對帳表可在簡報的附帶幻燈片中找到。本次電話會議預計將持續至太平洋時間下午 3:00。本次電話會議的重播將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

說完這些，我就把電話交給提姆。

Thank you, Tina, and welcome to everyone joining the call today. Lam posted strong results for the June quarter, with gross margin, operating margin and earnings per share well above the guided ranges. CSBG at 47% of revenues in the quarter, continues to stand out as a key area of strength and stability for Lam and otherwise weak wafer fabrication equipment spending environment.

謝謝蒂娜，歡迎各位今天參加電話會議。科林半導體6月當季業績強勁，毛利率、營業利益率及每股盈餘都遠高於預期。 CSBG在本季度貢獻了47%的收入，繼續成為科林半導體在疲軟的晶圓製造設備支出環境中保持強勁和穩定的關鍵領域。

Operationally, we achieved significant improvement in on-time delivery and critical back order performance in the quarter and now see these metrics back at normalized pre-pandemic levels. Our focus on the resiliency of our global manufacturing and supply chain network is delivering greater predictability in the short term, but more importantly, positions us to scale more efficiently when WFE growth inevitably resumes.

營運方面，本季我們在準時交付和關鍵積壓訂單表現方面取得了顯著提升，目前這些指標已恢復到疫情前的正常水準。我們專注於提升全球製造和供應鏈網路的韌性，這在短期內帶來了更高的可預測性，更重要的是，當WFE成長不可避免地恢復時，我們能夠更有效地擴展。

Looking near term, we see WFE spending in 2023, tracking to mid-$70 billion range, with the upside coming from domestic China related spending, as well as strong growth in high-bandwidth memory or HBM related demand. By device segments, we expect overall memory WFE to be down in the mid-40% range compared to last year and non-memory segments to be down approximately 10%. We continue to see second half 2023 WFE tracking higher than first half. While 2023 is a down year for WFE, the long-term growth dynamics for the semiconductor industry are strong.

短期來看，我們預計2023年WFE支出將達到700億美元左右，其中上行空間主要來自中國國內相關支出，以及高頻寬記憶體或HBM相關需求的強勁成長。按設備細分，我們預期整體記憶體WFE支出將較去年下降40%左右，非記憶體細分市場將下降約10%。我們預計2023年下半年WFE支出將高於上半年。雖然2023年是WFE支出低迷的一年，但半導體產業的長期成長動力依然強勁。

Emerging growth drivers such as generative AI are only in their initial stages of adoption and will be fundamental to driving increased investment in both memory and foundry logic fabs over the next several years. Advanced AI servers have significantly higher leading-edge logic, memory and storage content versus traditional servers, and every incremental 1% penetration of AI servers and data centers is expected to drive $1 billion to $1.5 billion of additional WFE investment.

諸如生成式人工智慧 (Generation AI) 等新興成長動力尚處於應用初期階段，未來幾年將成為推動記憶體和代工邏輯工廠投資成長的關鍵。與傳統伺服器相比，先進的人工智慧伺服器擁有更高的前沿邏輯、記憶體和儲存容量，預計人工智慧伺服器和資料中心的滲透率每增加 1%，就能帶來 10 億至 15 億美元的額外 WFE 投資。

This creates tremendous opportunity for Lam as greater etch and deposition intensity is needed to enable higher performance and more scalable device architectures. To ensure we are best positioned to win long term, we have been making significant investments to broaden our product portfolio for processing at the atomic scale. Lam is the established leader in 3D NAND and we are well positioned to benefit from the move underway to 3D in other device segments. Gate all around 3D DRAM and advanced packaging are important 3D inflections that are expected to drive strong SAM and share growth for Lam.

這為Lam帶來了巨大的機遇，因為需要更高的蝕刻和沈積強度來實現更高的性能和更具可擴展性的裝置架構。為了確保我們處於長期競爭的有利位置，我們一直在大力投資，以拓展原子級製程的產品組合。 Lam是3D NAND領域公認的領導者，我們已做好準備，從其他裝置領域正在發生的3D轉型中獲益。全柵極3D DRAM和先進封裝是重要的3D技術拐點，預計將推動Lam的SAM和市場份額強勁成長。

Advanced packaging is becoming vital to the performance, power and cost road maps of high-performance applications, including generative AI. Customers are increasingly adopting a wide variety of packaging schemes to enable logic and memory integration. Some of these schemes enable up to 50% improved memory density, 10x improvement in bandwidth and 60% gain in power efficiency. Lam has a track record of excellence in the advanced packaging segment with a strong set of manufacturing proven products. Overall, we have greater than 50% market share in deposition and etch solutions required for advanced 3D stacking of high-bandwidth memory.

先進封裝對於包括生成式人工智慧在內的高效能應用的效能、功耗和成本路線圖至關重要。客戶越來越多地採用各種封裝方案來實現邏輯和記憶體的整合。其中一些方案可使記憶體密度提高高達50%，頻寬提高10倍，功率效率提高60%。泛林集團在先進封裝領域擁有卓越的業績，並擁有一系列經過製造驗證的強大產品。整體而言，我們在高頻寬記憶體先進3D堆疊所需的沉積和蝕刻解決方案方面擁有超過50%的市場份額。

More specifically, our SABRE 3D copper electroplating tool and Syndion etch system hold 100% market share across all leading memory customers or through silicon via formation as a result of our long-established expertise in etching and filling high aspect ratio of geometry structures. Overall, we expect our packaging SAM to double in the next 5 years. We also see our market position strengthening as we bring technology and productivity innovation to address emerging opportunities.

更具體地說，憑藉我們在高深寬比幾何結構的蝕刻和填充方面長期累積的專業知識，我們的SABRE 3D銅電鍍設備和Syndion蝕刻系統在所有領先的記憶體客戶或矽通孔形成領域佔據了100%的市場份額。總體而言，我們預計我們的封裝SAM產能將在未來5年翻倍。隨著我們不斷創新技術和生產力以應對新興機遇，我們的市場地位也將不斷增強。

For example, in the June quarter, we had a critical win for a new inter-die gapfill application at a key foundry logic customer for their chiplet architecture. As this latest win ramps into production we will have secured a leading share position for this application across the top 3 foundry logic customers. We won this application for a couple of reasons. First, we delivered higher productivity relative to the competition by leveraging our unique triple quad platform architecture and multi-station sequential deposition chamber design. This enables film deposition of greater than 20 microns in a single pass, allowing the customer to run more wafers between chamber clean steps.

例如，在二季度，我們為一家重要的代工邏輯客戶贏得了一項關鍵的全新晶片間隙填充應用訂單，該訂單適用於他們的Chiplet架構。隨著這項最新訂單的量產，我們將在三大代工邏輯客戶中佔據該應用程式的領先份額。我們贏得該訂單的原因有幾個。首先，我們利用獨特的三重四平台架構和多工位順序沉積室設計，實現了相對於競爭對手更高的生產效率。這使得單次沉積的薄膜厚度超過20微米，使客戶能夠在沉積室清潔步驟之間生產更多晶圓。

Second, we delivered superior on-wafer performance including better film stress management, improved defectivity and enhance wafer-to-wafer uniformity versus the competition. As we expand our position in newer high-growth markets like 3D packaging and specialty technologies, we have looked to leverage existing R&D and tools within the Lam portfolio to broaden our product offerings most efficiently.

其次，我們實現了卓越的晶圓上性能，包括更佳的薄膜應力管理、更低的缺陷率以及增強的晶圓間均勻性，這些優勢均優於競爭對手。隨著我們在3D封裝和特種技術等新興高成長市場中的地位不斷提升，我們致力於利用泛林集團現有的研發和工具，以最高效的方式拓展我們的產品線。

In the recent example, our long-established Kiyo etch platform has proven to be highly suited to applications, which are critical to enabling new die-to-wafer hybrid bonding schemes. By delivering better etch profile than the competition, we secured a key win in the June quarter at a leading foundry logic customer. We are currently the tool of record for a suite of etches and resist strip steps at this customer and expect to start recognizing revenue for the new application in 2023. As this customer continues to shrink packaging dimensions with future hybrid bonding iterations, we have the opportunity to double our revenue with them over the next several years.

在最近的案例中，我們久經考驗的Kiyo蝕刻平台已被證明非常適合那些對於實現新的晶片到晶圓混合鍵合方案至關重要的應用。憑藉比競爭對手更佳的蝕刻性能，我們在二月季度贏得了一家領先代工邏輯客戶的關鍵訂單。我們目前是該客戶一套蝕刻和光阻剝離工序的指定設備，預計將於2023年開始確認該新應用的收入。隨著該客戶透過未來的混合鍵結迭代不斷縮小封裝尺寸，我們有機會在未來幾年內實現營收翻倍。

In another instance, Lam has been working with customers within the specialty segment to port key 300-millimeter etch solutions, including atomic layer etch to 200-millimeter to overcome challenges in the manufacturing of gallium nitride devices. Adoption of GaN technology is accelerating across multiple applications, ranging from high-efficiency charging devices for consumer electronics and automotive, to 5G RF infrastructure. However, the fabrication of such devices is complex and requires ultra-low damage etch processes with atomic scale precision.

在另一個例子中，泛林集團一直與專業領域的客戶合作，將關鍵的300毫米蝕刻解決方案（包括原子層蝕刻）移植到200毫米，以克服氮化鎵裝置製造的挑戰。 GaN技術正在多個應用領域加速普及，從消費性電子和汽車的高效充電設備到5G射頻基礎設施。然而，此類裝置的製造過程非常複雜，需要具有原子級精度的超低損傷蝕刻製程。

With our suite of solutions, we can deliver a GaN etch process that improve surface roughness and other material properties that impact device performance. These solutions were developed as a result of Lam's deep understanding of the required technology as well as key partnerships with customers and research institutions. Longer term, we look to outperform in the $1 trillion semiconductor industry forecasted for the end of the decade. At Lam, we are executing a strategy to create competitive differentiation by focusing on what we see as 3 key vectors of rising complexity. First is the technical complexity associated with enabling the transition to 3D device and packaging architectures across all market segments. Second is the support and workforce complexity arising from the expanding geographic footprint as regional efforts build momentum. And third is the sustainability complexity as we responsibly manage the carbon impact of the semiconductor industry as the output grows to $1 trillion.

憑藉我們的全套解決方案，我們可以提供GaN蝕刻工藝，以改善表面粗糙度和其他影響裝置性能的材料特性。這些解決方案的發展源自於Lam對所需技術的深刻理解，以及與客戶和研究機構的關鍵合作關係。長遠來看，我們期望在預計2020年末規模達1兆美元的半導體產業中脫穎而出。在Lam，我們正在實施一項策略，透過專注於我們認為日益複雜的三個關鍵方向來創造競爭差異化。首先是與在所有細分市場中實現向3D裝置和封裝架構的過渡相關的技術複雜性。其次是隨著區域性努力的勢頭增強，地理覆蓋範圍不斷擴大所帶來的支持和人員複雜性。第三是隨著半導體產業產值成長至1兆美元，我們需要負責任地管理其碳排放影響所帶來的永續性複雜性。

This quarter, we detailed 1 component of our strategy in a press release for our Semiverse solutions portfolio of advanced simulation and modeling products. These products are designed to help engineers get to process solutions faster, develop new products at lower cost and collaborate across the global ecosystem with greater effectiveness. We believe that by combining the physical advantages of Lam's diverse global R&D and manufacturing footprint with the virtual development and digital twin capabilities of our Semiverse solutions, we will be in an excellent position to innovate and outperform as our industry grows into the future.

本季度，我們在新聞稿中詳細介紹了我們Semiverse解決方案組合（包括先進的模擬和建模產品）策略的其中一項內容。這些產品旨在幫助工程師更快地獲得解決方案，以更低的成本開發新產品，並更有效率地在全球生態系統中進行協作。我們相信，透過將Lam多元化的全球研發和製造佈局的實體優勢與Semiverse解決方案的虛擬開發和數位孿生功能相結合，我們將在未來產業發展中佔據有利地位，不斷創新，超越自我。

With that, I will turn it over to Doug. Thank you.

接下來，我將把時間交給Doug。謝謝。

Excellent. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a very busy earnings season. We executed well in the June 2023 quarter with revenue coming in above the midpoint of our guided range, and our profitability metrics exceeding the high end of guidance. While we continue to work through a challenging WFE investment year, most notably with very low memory spending, our focus on improving our operational efficiencies is showing up favorably in our results. We're laser-focused on what's in our direct control and executing well.

太好了！謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝大家今天在財報季非常繁忙的時候參加我們的電話會議。我們在2023年6月當季表現良好，收入超過了我們預期區間的中點，獲利指標也超過了預期的上限。雖然我們仍在努力度過充滿挑戰的WFE投資年，尤其是記憶體支出非常低，但我們對提升營運效率的專注在業績中得到了積極的體現。我們專注於我們直接掌控的領域，並且執行得很好。

Let me dig into revenue. June quarter revenue came in at $3.2 billion, a decrease from the prior quarter as we expected. Systems revenue declined quarter-over-quarter as we had reduced levels of deferred revenue with the improvement in supply chain constraints. We closed the June quarter with $1.8 billion in deferred revenue on the balance sheet, which was a decreased $165 million sequentially. We've got all the deferred revenue related to outstanding backorder parts completely back to normal levels. As we discussed last quarter, though, our deferred revenue balance is currently still at higher than historic levels. The deferred revenue balance includes increased customer cash and advanced deposits tied to orders from newer customers. We expect a significant portion of these deposits to convert to revenue during the second half of calendar year 2023.

讓我來深入探討一下收入。六月季度的營收為32億美元，與上一季相比有所下降，這與我們預期一致。系統收入環比下降，因為隨著供應鏈限制的改善，我們減少了遞延收入。截至六月季度，我們的資產負債表上的遞延收入為18億美元，比上一季減少了1.65億美元。我們已將所有與未完成訂單零件相關的遞延收入完全恢復到正常水準。不過，正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們的遞延收入餘額目前仍高於歷史水準。遞延收入餘額包括增加的客戶現金和與新客戶訂單相關的預付定金。我們預計，這些訂金中的很大一部分將在2023年下半年轉化為收入。

Let me now turn to the revenue segment details. Memory as a percentage of systems revenue in the June quarter was low at 27%, which was a decline from the prior quarter level of 32% and our lowest concentration percentage for this segment in the last decade. The DRAM segment within memory remained flat at 9% of systems revenue and NAND came down to 18% of systems revenue down from the March quarter level of 23%.

現在我來談談收入部門的細節。 6月季度，記憶體佔系統收入的比例較低，僅27%，低於上一季的32%，也是我們該部門近十年來最低的集中度。記憶體中的DRAM部分佔系統收入的比例保持不變，為9%，而NAND佔系統收入的比例則從3月份季度的23%降至18%。

We continue to expect NAND spending to remain at low levels for the remainder of the 2023 calendar year. And I just mentioned NAND spending is at the lowest levels we've seen since the advent of the 3D NAND architecture. Consistent with the prior quarter, we see strong concentration of systems revenue in the Foundry segment, with the June quarter revenue percentage at 47% versus 46% that we saw in the March quarter. Investments were biased towards leading-edge devices. There was also continues to be robust spending to support more mature specialty nodes. We had a record level of concentration in the Logic and Other segment with 26% of the systems revenue in the June quarter compared with 22% in the prior quarter. There was broad-based spending in areas such as advanced packaging, microprocessors, analog, image sensors and power applications. These are areas where we've demonstrated strong momentum with our technology solutions, and I'd just point out that they are broadly distributed geographically.

我們預計在2023年剩餘時間內，NAND支出將維持在低水準。我剛才提到，NAND支出處於3D NAND架構問世以來的最低水準。與上一季一致，我們看到系統收入高度集中在晶圓代工部門，6月季度的收入佔比為47%，而3月季度為46%。投資偏向尖端設備。此外，我們還持續保持強勁的支出以支援更成熟的專用節點。我們在邏輯及其他部門的集中度達到了創紀錄的水平，6月季度的系統收入佔比為26%，而上一季為22%。在先進封裝、微處理器、類比、影像感測器和電源應用等領域，支出範圍廣泛。在這些領域，我們的技術解決方案展現了強勁的發展勢頭，我想指出的是，這些領域的地理分佈非常廣泛。

With respect to the regional composition of our total revenue, the China region was 26%, which was up a little bit from the prior quarter, which was 22%. China domestic customers with the majority of the China regional revenue in the June quarter. The result of strong concentration of investments by our customers in the Korea and Taiwan region which comprised 24% and 20% of our total revenues, respectively, in the June quarter.

就我們總收入的區域組成而言，中國地區佔26%，較上一季的22%略有上升。中國國內客戶貢獻了6月當季中國地區的大部分收入。這得歸功於韓國和台灣地區的客戶高度集中投資，這兩個地區分別占我們6月當季總收入的24%和20%。

The U.S. region declined from the record level that we saw last quarter largely due to the timing of customer projects. The customers for our business group revenue in the June quarter totaled approximately $1.5 billion, which was a decrease of 7% from the prior quarter level and 8% lower than the June quarter in calendar 2022. CSBG represented 47% of our June quarter revenue. This is a historically high concentration percentage driven largely by continued strength in the specialty node investments, which are serviced by our reliance systems business.

美國地區的收入較上一季的創紀錄水準有所下降，這主要是由於客戶專案的時間表。我們業務集團第二季的客戶營收總計約15億美元，較上一季下降7%，較2022年第二季下降8%。 CSBG占我們第二季營收的47%。這一集中度達到歷史最高水平，這主要得益於我們信實系統業務（Reliance Systems）對專業節點投資的持續強勁成長。

Our Reliant and spares businesses continue to represent the largest individual portions of CSBG revenues. Both our spares and service businesses have been negatively impacted a low fab utilization levels, particularly at our memory customers. On the profitability side of things, our June quarter gross margin came in at 45.7%, above our guided range and up from 44% that we saw in the March quarter. The quarter-on-quarter increase was related to cost and efficiency improvements as well as a favorable product mix. We continue to expect to make further progress on our operational execution as we go forward.

我們的Reliant和備件業務繼續佔據CSBG收入的最大份額。我們的備件和服務業務都受到了晶圓廠利用率低的負面影響，尤其是在我們記憶體客戶那裡。在獲利能力方面，我們6月季的毛利率為45.7%，高於我們的預期範圍，也高於3月季的44%。環比成長得益於成本和效率的改進，以及良好的產品組合。我們期待在未來的營運執行方面取得進一步進展。

Operating expenses for June came in at $590 million, which was down from the $608 million in the March quarter, although it was a little bit higher than our original estimate coming into the quarter. Investing in research and development continues to be a top priority for Lam with over 2/3 of our operating expense concentrated in R&D. We're focused on extending our product differentiation and ensuring that our competitiveness remains very strong.

6月份營運費用為5.9億美元，低於3月份的6.08億美元，但略高於我們進入本季時的初始預期。研發投入仍是Lam的首要任務，我們超過三分之二的營運費用都集中在研發上。我們專注於提升產品差異化，並確保我們保持強勁的競爭力。

The June quarter operating margin came in at 27.3%, which was over the guidance range largely because of our strong gross margin performance. The non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter came in low at 7.5% due to a more favorable jurisdictional mix of income and provision true-ups that occurred at the end of our fiscal year. We estimate the tax rate for the remainder of the 2023 calendar year will be in the low to mid-teens level. And as always, this rate will have some fluctuation quarter-to-quarter.

6月當季營業利益率為27.3%，高於預期範圍，主要得益於我們強勁的毛利率表現。本季非公認會計準則稅率較低，為7.5%，這得益於財年末更有利的司法管轄區收入和撥備調整。我們預計2023年剩餘時間的稅率將處於低至中等水平。與往常一樣，該稅率將逐季有所波動。

Other income and expense for the June quarter was approximately $7 million in expense, consistent with the prior quarter amount and primarily related to our strong cash balances as well as higher interest rates. And I'd just point out, from a return on cash standpoint, we're now realizing higher interest rates on our cash balances than we're paying on the longer-term duration debt in our capital structure.

6月份當季的其他收入和支出約為700萬美元，與上一季持平，主要與我們強勁的現金餘額以及更高的利率有關。我想指出的是，從現金回報率的角度來看，我們現在現金餘額的利率高於我們資本結構中長期債務的利率。

And as we've discussed in the past, OI&E is subject to market-related fluctuations that will cause some level of quarterly volatility. From a capital return activities, we allocated approximately $906 million to open market share buyback and we paid $232 million in dividends in the June quarter. We have $3.5 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share buyback plan. For the June quarter, we returned 109% of free cash flow, and we're very much in line with our long-term capital return plans of returning 75% to 100% of free cash flow.

正如我們過去討論過的，OI&E 受市場相關波動的影響，這將導致一定程度的季度波動。在資本回報活動中，我們撥出了約 9.06 億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在 6 月季度支付了 2.32 億美元的股息。我們董事會授權的股票回購計畫剩餘 35 億美元。 6 月季度，我們的自由現金流回報率為 109%，這與我們的長期資本回報計劃（即 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流回報）非常一致。

June quarter diluted earnings per share came in at $5.98 over the high end of our guidance range. This was enabled from stronger revenue, improved gross margin and net lower tax rate. Diluted share count was 134 million shares on track with our expectations and down from the March quarter.

6月季稀釋每股盈餘為5.98美元，高於我們預期區間的上限。這得益於收入成長、毛利率提升以及淨稅率降低。稀釋股份總數為1.34億股，符合我們的預期，但低於3月季。

Let me now come to the balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, totaled $5.6 billion, which was flat with the March quarter. The sales outstanding were 80 days in the June quarter. June quarter inventory turns came down from the prior quarter level of 1.9x to 1.5x. While we did bring inventory down slightly during the June quarter, the balance is elevated from historic levels.

現在我來看一下資產負債表。現金和短期投資（包括限制性現金）總計56億美元，與3月季度相當。 6月份季度的未償銷售額為80天。 6月季度的庫存週轉率從上一季的1.9倍下降至1.5倍。雖然我們在6月份季度略微降低了庫存，但餘額仍高於歷史水準。

As business volumes reduce, we need to cancel a significant volume of purchase orders with our suppliers. As we work through these cancellations, we're taking more inventory than we need in the near term. This ongoing process will keep inventory higher than we'd like this year, frankly. We do expect inventory to come down, though, albeit more slowly than we may have historically been able to drive it to.

隨著業務量減少，我們需要取消大量與供應商的採購訂單。在處理這些取消訂單的過程中，我們短期內庫存量將超過需求。坦白說，這個持續的流程將使今年的庫存量高於我們的預期。不過，我們確實預期庫存會下降，儘管下降速度可能比我們以往能夠達到的速度還要慢。

Noncash expenses for the June quarter included approximately $68 million in equity compensation, $76 million in depreciation and $14 million for amortization. Capital expenditures were $79 million, which was down from the March quarter by approximately $41 million. Spending mainly centered on product development activities and our global lab infrastructure. We ended the June quarter with approximately 17,400 regular full-time employees, which was a decrease of approximately 1,300 people from the prior quarter. Most of this decrease is related to the restructuring actions we took earlier in the calendar year with the timing of the headcount reduction showing up in the June quarter.

六月季度的非現金支出包括約6,800萬美元的股權薪酬、7,600萬美元的折舊和1,400萬美元的攤提。資本支出為7,900萬美元，較三月季減少約4,100萬美元。支出主要集中在產品開發活動和我們的全球實驗室基礎設施。截至六月季度，我們約有17,400名正式全職員工，較上一季減少約1,300人。這主要與我們今年稍早採取的重組措施有關，裁員時間恰好出現在六月季度。

Overall, we're on track with our transformation initiatives, to improve our operations. And as we stand at the end of the quarter, we incurred approximately $143 million year-to-date out of an anticipated $250 million estimated range for calendar year 2023.

總體而言，我們的轉型計劃正在按計劃推進，以改善我們的營運。截至本季末，我們年初至今的支出約為1.43億美元，而2023日曆年的預計支出為2.5億美元。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the September '23 quarters. We're expecting revenue of $3.4 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 46.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. This improvement in gross margin is a function of our operational efforts as well as a beneficial mix. Operating margins of 28%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. We're purposely spending a little more in R&D in the second half of 2023.

現在，我來談談我們對截至2023年9月季度的非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）業績的預測。我們預計營收為34億美元，上下浮動3億美元。毛利率為46.5%，上下浮動1個百分點。毛利率的提升得益於我們營運方面的努力以及良好的組合。營業利益率為28%，上下浮動1個百分點。我們將在2023年下半年刻意增加一些研發支出。

And finally, earnings per share of $6.05, plus or minus $0.75 based on a declining share count of approximately 133 million shares. So let me summarize. The results this quarter demonstrate, I think, that we're on a solid path to strengthen our operations and our profitability profile. We're improving and optimizing all elements of the company, and solidifying Lam's business foundation to ensure we're well positioned for outperformance when WFE growth resumes. And I'll just reiterate what Tim said, we continue to see WFE a little bit second half weighted this year.

最後，每股收益為6.05美元，基於約1.33億股的減少，上下浮動0.75美元。讓我總結一下。我認為，本季的業績表明，我們正穩步加強營運和獲利能力。我們正在改進和優化公司的各個方面，並鞏固Lam的業務基礎，以確保在WFE恢復成長時，我們能夠取得優異的業績。我再重申一下Tim所說的，我們預計今年下半年WFE的業績將略有加權。

Operator with that, that concludes my prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我的準備好的發言到此結束。我和提姆現在想開始提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Our first question today comes from Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Congratulations on solid execution. As we progress through this weaker period for the industry, right? The activity level can be quite noisy. But there will come a period of stabilization of fundamentals and business trends, right? Fundamentals being the things that you can track like your customers' utilization and business-wise, the level of pushouts reschedules and cancellations. So I guess with that, has the team seen utilizations starting to stabilize, albeit at low levels? And has the rate magnitude of shipment pushouts rescheduling also come down to more normalized levels? .

恭喜您執行力出色。隨著我們逐漸度過行業低迷時期，對吧？活動量可能會相當吵雜。但基本面和業務趨勢最終會趨於穩定，對吧？基本面指的是您可以追蹤的因素，例如客戶的使用率，以及從業務角度來看，延遲、重新安排和取消的程度。因此，我想，團隊是否已經看到利用率開始穩定下來，儘管目前處於較低水平？發貨延遲重新安排的速率是否也已降至更正常的水平？

I think that we've -- it probably varies by market segment. But clearly, we've heard some of our customers even just recently talking about more utilization cuts within certain device segments. Clearly, I would say it's slowing down as the majority of the cuts that were made in the first half of the year kind of taking effect. I do feel like -- and I made a comment about, in some ways, normalizing our operations is allowing the business to be more predictable. I think the same thing is happening on the end markets and customer side as well, where people are getting a sense of how the cuts that have already been made and how the CapEx reductions that have already been made are starting to flow through. So I do feel like we're in that position.

我認為我們的情況可能因細分市場而異。但顯然，我們最近聽到一些客戶談到在某些設備細分市場中進一步削減利用率。顯然，我認為削減速度正在放緩，因為上半年的大部分削減措施已經生效。我確實覺得──我之前也說過，在某種程度上，營運正常化讓我們的業務更可預測。我認為終端市場和客戶方面也發生了同樣的事情，人們開始意識到已經削減的資金以及已經削減的資本支出是如何開始發揮作用的。所以，我確實覺得我們正處於這樣的境地。

And just as we, at this point, ticked a little bit up on WFE from our prior guidance of low to mid-70s to mid-70s. Yes, you're starting to see a little strength in certain parts of the market, HBM being one of them. And as also we mentioned some of the domestic China spending. So I would feel like things are getting to the point where people are able to predict their business a little bit better than, say, 6 months ago.

正如我們目前對 WFE 的預期，從之前 75% 左右的低點到中位數略有上調。是的，你開始看到市場某些部分略有增強，HBM 就是其中之一。我們也提到了中國國內的一些支出。所以我覺得現在的情況是，人們能夠比 6 個月前更好地預測他們的業務。

And Harlan, this is Doug. Maybe the only thing I would add to what Tim said is we haven't really seen utilizations getting any better, quite frankly. You'll remember on the call last quarter, we talked about, you'll see that from us in our spares and service components of CSBG. And as we sit here today, you're not seeing that at this point. So it's at a fairly low level, and we really don't see it getting any better in the near term. .

哈蘭，我是道格。關於提姆所說，我唯一想補充的是，坦白說，我們並沒有真正看到利用率有任何改善。您還記得，在上個季度的電話會議上，我們談到了這一點，您會在我們CSBG的備用零件和服務零件中看到這一點。而今天我們坐在這裡，您目前還沒有看到這一點。所以它處於相當低的水平，我們真的不認為短期內會有任何好轉。

And the only other thing that, we have said that when you think about especially utilization improvements in the memory space, we would anticipate Lam being the first to sort of benefit from utilization turning back on. Just given our exposure in that space, and the impact that it had on our spares and service business through the first half of this year. .

另外，我們說過，當你考慮到記憶體領域的利用率提升時，我們預期Lam將率先從利用率回升中受益。考慮到我們在該領域的業務，以及它對我們今年上半年備件和服務業務的影響。

I appreciate that. And then I also appreciate you guys highlighting the advanced packaging opportunity. I think it's quite timely, right, because you guys called out slightly better memory WFE trends due to strong HBM, DRAM demand. So you guys benefit both in your core memory silicon tools and now your advanced packaging portfolio as you outlined, right? But just given the overall sort of recent and strong demand pool for accelerated compute and AI capabilities, I mean, this is driving advanced packaging demand across CPU, GPU, networking, memory, right? And so your customers are capacity constrained here. So do you guys anticipate your advanced packaging segment to grow this year? And can you just give us some sense on how big this segment is for Lam?

我很感激。我也感謝你們強調先進封裝的機會。我認為這非常及時，因為你們指出由於HBM和DRAM需求強勁，記憶體WFE趨勢略有改善。所以，正如你們概述的那樣，你們的核心記憶體矽片工具和現在的先進封裝產品組合都受益匪淺，對嗎？但考慮到近期對加速運算和AI功能的整體強勁需求，這正在推動CPU、GPU、網路和記憶體領域對先進封裝的需求，對嗎？因此，你們的客戶在這方面的產能有限。那麼，你們預計今年先進封裝市場會成長嗎？能否介紹一下這個市場對Lam來說有多大？

Yes. I don't think -- we haven't exactly sized this business externally, but we -- it is growing and as I said, in certain areas, especially as I highlighted, things like etch for TSVs, copper plating for filling of those TSVs, pretty much anything related to the to build that advanced packaging structure through etch and deposition. So it is a strong area of our business right now, especially given the relative weakness as seen in the other parts of the market. .

是的。我不認為——我們還沒有對外準確評估這項業務的規模，但它正在成長，正如我所說，在某些領域，尤其是我強調的，例如矽通孔（TSV）的蝕刻、填充TSV的鍍銅，以及幾乎所有與透過蝕刻和沈積構建先進封裝結構相關的技術。因此，這是我們目前業務的一個強項，尤其是在市場其他部分相對疲軟的情況下。

Our next question comes from CJ Muse from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 CJ Muse。

I guess first question, Doug. Last quarter, you talked about expectations for 100 bps improvement, at least exiting the year. You've clearly blown that away. So curious how much of that in the guide for September is due to mix versus kind of greater efficiencies that you've garnered? And what is kind of the new exit rate that we should be thinking about for calendar '23?

我想第一個問題，道格。上個季度，您談到了至少在年底前實現100個基點的改善預期。您顯然已經超出了預期。所以，我很好奇9月份的指南中，有多少是由於混合因素，而不是您已經獲得的更高效率？我們應該考慮2023年實現什麼樣的新的退出率？

Yes, C.J., actually, I think if you talk to the leadership team on Lam, we're all pretty pleased at where we've been able to drive the operational efficiency in the company. And it's gone quicker, I think, than I expected certainly. We're obviously beyond that 100 basis point improvement. Having said that, though, I would point to -- we do have a component of the September numbers that are mix related. I'm not going to quantify it precisely for you. But we're doing real well operationally. I'm not quite ready to guide December for you yet, except I'd say I think we're pretty pleased where we're at, and we're well beyond that 100 basis improvement we talked about, I think on January call, if I recall the first time we started talking about it.

是的，C.J.，實際上，如果你和Lam的領導團隊溝通，你會發現我們都對公司營運效率的提升感到非常滿意。而且我認為，提升的速度肯定比我預期的還要快。我們的業績顯然已經超過了100個基點的提升幅度。話雖如此，我想指出的是——9月份的數據中確實有一部分與產品組合有關。我不會為你精確量化。但我們的營運表現確實很好。我還沒準備好為你預測12月份的業績，但我可以說，我們對目前的狀況非常滿意，而且我們已經遠遠超過了我們之前談到的100個基點的提升幅度，我記得那是在1月份的電話會議上，如果我沒記錯的話，那是我們第一次討論這個話題的時候。

Great. I guess the second question relates to CSBG. And how are you thinking about sustainability of Reliant? And then as you kind of contemplate the timing of utilization picking up from memory, how do you see kind of a handoff maybe from 1 part of the business to the other and how we should be modeling CSBG into September and beyond?

太好了。我想第二個問題與CSBG有關。您如何看待Reliant的永續性？然後，當您根據記憶思考利用率的時間時，您如何看待從業務的一個部分到另一個部分的交接？我們應該如何為9月及以後的CSBG建模？

Yes. I think that, as you pointed out, I mean, obviously, there's a Reliant component that's right now is quite strong. I talked about specialty technologies. I mean, we're seeing still quite strong demand for our products across all of those different segments. Utilization driving spares and service to much lower levels than we've historically seen. And so I think as people talk and worry about roll-off in the specialist technologies, maybe that does come at the time that the utilization picks up in the leading edge in the memory fabs.

是的。正如您所指出的，我認為Reliant的組件目前表現相當強勁。我之前談到了專業技術。我的意思是，我們看到所有不同細分市場對我們產品的需求仍然相當強勁。利用率導致備件和服務的利用率遠低於歷史水準。因此，我認為，當人們談論和擔心專業技術產能下降時，也許這種情況會在記憶體晶圓廠尖端技術利用率上升的時候發生。

But actually, at this point, I would say we haven't yet seen demand for those trailing edge technologies to really be rolling over. I mean demand is still quite strong for us. We're focused on new applications, new tool types and it's just not something that we're ready to forecast yet. Although again, as we've said, nothing grows forever, but it -- with the broadening it feels pretty good to us right now.

但實際上，目前我認為我們還沒有看到這些尖端技術的需求真正開始轉變。我的意思是，對我們來說，需求仍然相當強大。我們專注於新的應用、新的工具類型，但目前還無法預測。雖然正如我們所說，沒有什麼是永遠成長的，但隨著業務範圍的擴大，我們現在感覺相當不錯。

So we should be modeling CSBG up in September? .

那麼我們應該在九月對 CSBG 進行建模嗎？

C.J., I guided you to $3.4 billion in revenue. You could do whatever you'd like to do with the competition of that. You've got the total number.

C.J.，我給你的預期收入是34億美元。你想怎麼處理競爭就怎麼處理。你已經知道總數了。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 questions. First one, maybe for Tim or Doug, kind of curious at SEMICON West a few weeks ago, Tokyo Electron spoke about a cryo etch product. And I remember you have spoken about it a couple of years ago. So I'm kind of curious how to think about your high aspect ratio etch market share? And my understanding was a lot of it was like geared towards 3D NAND. And obviously, NAND spending is at a very low level. So I'm kind of curious: a, number one, how to think about your high asset ratio market share and the cryo etch product, et cetera, in that route? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題，可能是想問Tim或Doug，我有點好奇幾週前在SEMICON West展會上，東京電子談到了一款低溫蝕刻產品。我記得您幾年前也談過這個。所以我有點好奇，您如何看待高深寬比蝕刻的市場佔有率？我的理解是，很多產品都面向3D NAND。顯然，NAND的支出處於非常低的水平。所以我有點好奇：第一，您如何看待高深寬比蝕刻的市場份額，以及低溫蝕​​刻產品等等？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Great. Well, thanks, Krish and I'll take it first. I think that relative to NAND, as you pointed out, I mean, it's -- spending is at very low levels, down more than -- probably more than 75% year-on-year right now. But to this point of Cryo etch, I mean, I guess I would just say that at this point, Lam is the only company with cryo etch in high-volume production. So it's an area where we do have strength. I mean, hundreds of chambers of experience right now. We're the leader in high aspect ratio etch. I know that at the recent conference, competition has been out talking about a DTOR position for 1 pass at a memory customer for a future node.

好的。太好了。好的，謝謝，Krish，我先回答這個問題。我認為，相對於NAND，正如你所指出的，它的支出處於非常低的水平，目前比去年同期下降了超過75%。但就低溫蝕刻而言，我想說，目前Lam是唯一一家擁有低溫蝕刻技術並能進行大量生產的公司。所以，這就是我們確實擁有優勢的領域。我的意思是，我們現在擁有數百個蝕刻室的經驗。我們是高深寬比蝕刻領域的領導者。我知道在最近的會議上，競爭對手一直在討論未來節點在記憶體客戶那裡獲得DTOR（一次通過）職位。

But I think as probably everybody on this call knows customers regularly engage more than one vendor when you're in the R&D stage for all these critical applications. And in this case, production decisions are still quite a ways off. I look at Lam and our competitiveness. I mean we take all of that experience that we have from years of leading in this space. We've developed a robust technology road map. We're engaged with the customer on a variety of different hardware and process innovations.

但我想，在座的各位可能都知道，在所有這些關鍵應用的研發階段，客戶通常會與多家供應商合作。在這種情況下，生產決策仍然遙遙無期。我關注的是泛林集團和我們的競爭力。我的意思是，我們充分利用了多年來在該領域領先積累的所有經驗。我們已經制定了完善的技術路線圖。我們正與客戶就各種不同的硬體和工藝創新進行合作。

But I think most importantly, when I think about our long-term competitiveness, we are still the only vendor that has this huge installed base from which every day we're getting learning about how to take processes from the R&D stage into high-volume production. And that's ultimately what really counts for affecting market share. And we've said in the past, we don't win every decision, certainly not always at the DTOR stage. But I think given where we are and where we've come from, we're very confident about maintaining leadership and market share in this space.

但我認為最重要的是，考慮到我們的長期競爭力，我們仍然是唯一一家擁有如此龐大客戶群的供應商，我們每天都從中學習如何將流程從研發階段推進到量產階段。而這才是最終影響市場佔有率的關鍵。我們過去也說過，我們並非每次決策都能取勝，尤其是在DTOR階段。但我認為，鑑於我們目前的狀況和發展歷程，我們非常有信心在這個領域保持領先地位和市場份額。

Very helpful, Tim. And then just a follow-up on the advanced packaging, I understand you did mention the packaging trend could double. And you spoke about the Syndion for TSV etch and SABRE 3D for metal dep. If I remember, when I went back, looked at my notes, in 2015, you said it would be like a $200 million to $300 million opportunity. And then I think last year, folks updated both in 2020, where you said Syndion and SABRE could actually doubled since then. I'm kind of curious, I understand a lot of it goes to HBM and all these things. So from that whole realm of advanced packaging, how do think about like the opportunity from here? And also for AI, my understanding is some of your ALD for high-K metal gate for DRAM can also be used. So if I put it all together, is there a way to quantify where your Syndion and SABRE revenue numbers are today? And how to think about it and also how to think about ALD for high-K metal gate?

非常有幫助，Tim。然後我想問一下關於先進封裝的問題。我知道您確實提到封裝趨勢可能會翻倍。您提到了用於TSV蝕刻的Syndion和用於金屬沉積的SABRE 3D。如果我沒記錯的話，2015年我回顧筆記時，您說過這將是一個2億到3億美元的商機。我記得去年有人在2020年更新了這兩項技術，您說Syndion和SABRE的營收實際上可能會翻倍。我有點好奇，我知道很多營收都流向了HBM（高能量儲存模組）等等。那麼，從整個先進封裝領域來看，您如何看待未來的機會？此外，對於人工智慧，我的理解是，您之前用於DRAM高K金屬閘極的ALD技術也可以使用。所以，如果我把所有這些結合起來，有沒有辦法量化您目前的Syndion和SABRE營收數字？以及如何考慮它以及如何考慮高 K 金屬閘極的 ALD？

Yes. It's -- well, you threw out a couple of numbers. We used to talk about a couple of hundred million dollar opportunity doubling from there, puts it in the hundreds. I mean it's growing from that point. It's becoming a sizable business for us. We just haven't quantified specifically for those 2 products. I think what you can take away is we talked about our market share position. We know -- I think everybody knows HBM and 3D chip stacking, those products also play into other elements of advanced packaging. It's a very fast-growing part of our business. And so without giving you our forecast for those markets, I think you can apply what you think about how chip stacking and 3D packaging is building momentum. You know we have 100% market share. I think just -- we're very happy to see what's transpiring in that part of the market.

是的。嗯，你剛才提到了幾個數字。我們以前常說，從現在開始，幾億美元的機會就會翻倍，現在變成了幾百億美元。我的意思是，從那時起，它就一直在增長。這對我們來說是一個相當大的業務。我們只是還沒有具體量化這兩種產品。我想你可以從中了解到，我們談到了我們的市場佔有率。我們知道——我想每個人都知道HBM和3D晶片堆疊，這些產品也與先進封裝的其他元素相關。這是我們業務中成長非常快的一個部分。所以，我不會給你我們對這些市場的預測，但我想你可以參考你對晶片堆疊和3D封裝如何發展勢頭的看法。你知道我們擁有100%的市佔率。我想——我們非常樂意看到這部分市場正在發生的事情。

Yes. And Krish, maybe I would just add. You're right about I don't know how long back, we've quantified it as few hundred million dollars, not billions of dollars, just to kind of frame it for you, but it is a very fast-growing component of the business, as Tim pointed out. So maybe that's a good way to think about it. It's something when you listen to everybody talk and everybody is very excited about high bandwidth memory and it's enablement of AI, we're right in the middle of all of that stuff from a packaging stand point.

是的。 Krish，我可能想補充一下。你說得對，我不知道多久以前，我們把它量化為幾億美元，而不是幾十億美元，只是為了給你一個大概的框架，但正如Tim指出的那樣，這是一個增長非常快的業務組成部分。所以，也許這樣想是個好主意。當你聽到每個人都在談論高頻寬記憶體及其對人工智慧的支援時，你會發現，從封裝的角度來看，我們正處於所有這些領域的中心。

Krish, what I would say is in this environment, it's the -- those are the tool sets that people are actually pulling for in terms of accelerated deliveries. And so I think that gives you some sense of demand in that market.

Krish，我想說的是，在這種環境下，這些工具組才是人們在加速交付方面真正需要的。所以我認為這能讓你了解這個市場的需求。

And our next question comes from Tim Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tim Arcuri。

Tim, there's been a lot of debate that I hear on NAND, WFE. And obviously, you have the highest share of all the major vendors. And you used to give this model that suggested $14 billion to $15 billion per year to drive sort of mid-30% bit growth, and there was some sensitivity around it. But since then, a lot of the producers have been basically down ticking on long-term NAND bit growth, Micron is now saying low 20s. So if you kind of use that old model, you get to something like $11 billion to $12 billion per year to drive low 20s bit growth? I know you've talked about more steps and so that number has gone up. But that's just optically, it's not a ton higher than the $9 billion or so that we're spending this year. And so I keep on getting a ton of debate in terms of just how much NAND, WFE is going to come back. So I'm not asking you for a new model, but can you sort of like handicap what's changed vis-a-vis that old model in a market where bit growth seems to be lower going forward than it was back then?

提姆，我聽到很多關於NAND和WFE的爭論。顯然，你們在所有主要供應商中佔有最高的份額。你以前給的模型建議每年投入140億到150億美元來推動30%左右的位元成長，當時人們對這個數字有些敏感。但從那以後，很多生產商基本上都在下調NAND長期位成長預期，美光公司現在說的是20%出頭。所以，如果你使用舊模型，每年需要投入110億到120億美元來推動20%出頭的位成長？我知道你談到了更多步驟，所以這個數字有所上升。但這只是表面上的，並不比我們今年支出的90億美元左右高出多少。因此，我一直在聽到大量關於NAND和WFE最終會恢復多少的爭論。所以我並不是要求您提出一個新的模型，但是您能否在某種程度上分析一下，在一個未來的成長似乎低於過去的市場中，相對於舊模型，舊模型發生了哪些變化？

Well, I think there probably is equal debate about what long-term bit growth is in the NAND space with some of the new applications coming out. But I'm certainly not going to get crossways with our customers in terms of their forecast versus ours. I mean again, it's a market where we have such a strong position that ultimately -- we look to satisfy with technology road maps and the volume requirements of our customers, and that's kind of where we are. So right now, we know this year, NAND is extremely low.

嗯，我認為隨著一些新應用的出現，關於NAND領域的長期比特成長可能也存在著同樣的爭議。但我肯定不會與我們的客戶在預測上有分歧。我的意思是，在這個市場上，我們佔據著如此強大的地位，最終我們希望透過技術路線圖和客戶的數量需求來滿足他們，而這正是我們的現狀。所以現在，我們知道今年的NAND非常低。

And without giving you our number, I mean it's -- I would say even if it gets back to something close to that model, it's a lot higher spending than where we are today. I think what's happened to is for Lam, specifically, is not only have we taken -- I mean, what might be different from that model of how much we capture of that SAM is the complexity of doing multi-tier stacking has increased our opportunity through a whole bunch of other steps that we've talked about in the past in terms of backside depth for stress management and gap fill -- ALD gap fills for plug fill, carbon sacrificial plug fills, lots of different types of applications. And so I think even an environment where you didn't do a lot better than the model, Lam would do a lot better, and we do a whole lot better than where we are today in such a low NAND spending environment. So I think we will get, Tim, a new model out once we see a better view of the end demand picture, but that's the best I can do for you right now.

我不提供具體數字，我的意思是——我想說，即使回到接近那個模型的水平，支出也比我們現在的水平高得多。我認為對於Lam來說，具體來說，我們不僅採取了——我的意思是，與那個模型不同的地方在於，我們掌握了多少SAM，多層堆疊的複雜性增加了我們的機會，我們通過一系列其他步驟，例如我們過去討論過的背面深度應力管理和間隙填充——用於塞孔填充的ALD間隙填充、碳犧牲塞孔，以及許多不同類型的應用。所以我認為，即使在你的表現沒有比模型好很多的環境下，Lam也會做得更好，而且在如此低的NAND支出環境下，我們的表現比現在好得多。所以，Tim，我認為，一旦我們對最終需求情況有了更好的了解，我們就會推出一個新的模型，但這是我目前能為你提供的最好的資訊。

And then, Doug, I guess just as a follow-up, how does your inventory situation play out? I imagine that it's still kind of a drag on gross margin, and you said it's going to come down, you said pretty slowly as you kind of get to the back half of the year. So can you quantify how much of a drag it is as you're -- as you still have pretty high costs, I would imagine, on these parts? And then when do you think it gets back to some sort of normalized level, and it's not a headwind anymore to margin? .

然後，道格，我想補充一下，您的庫存情況如何？我估計它仍然對毛利率有一定的拖累作用，您之前說過到下半年毛利率會下降，而且下降速度會比較慢。那麼，您能否量化一下庫存對毛利率的拖累程度，因為我認為這些零件的成本仍然很高？您認為什麼時候庫存會恢復到某種正常水平，不再對利潤率造成不利影響？

Yes, Tim, I don't really think about right now as a drag on gross margin, honestly. It will prevent improvement in gross margin as we have to consume some of the inventory sitting there, right, to the extent that we're negotiating costs of some of the stuff down, the stuff that we have is already on the balance sheet, right? So you've got to consume that first. So that's the right way to think about it. I don't really think of it as a drag in the near term. And Tim, it will come down, although what I tried to say in my script was it's going to come down a little bit more slowly than perhaps you've seen us be able to drive it to in the past because we canceled a lot of purchase orders, a lot of material in that as part of negotiating through that, you end up taking perhaps a little bit more than you need in the near term, we'll consume it over time.

是的，提姆，說實話，我現在不認為這會拖累毛利率。它會阻礙毛利率的提升，因為我們必須消化掉一些積壓的庫存，對吧？我們正在協商降低部分庫存的成本，而這些庫存已經在資產負債表上了，對吧？所以你必須先消化掉這些庫存。這才是正確的思考方式。我並不認為短期內這會造成拖累。提姆，庫存會下降，儘管我在腳本中試圖表達的是，下降的速度會比你過去看到的我們能夠達到的速度要慢一些，因為我們取消了很多採購訂單，很多原材料，作為談判的一部分，你最終可能會在短期內收到比實際需要多一點的庫存，但我們會隨著時間的推移逐漸消化掉它們。

But it's just going to create a little bit of a delay in the reduction of inventory that you've seen us be able to do it in the past. So it's going to be a little bit sticky, I think, Tim, through the year. And then I think it will come down through the year, but I think it's going to be a little bit sticky. And then you'll see it improve as we get into next year.

但這只會稍微推遲我們過去能夠做到的庫存削減。所以，提姆，我認為，今年庫存削減會有點棘手。之後，我認為庫存削減會逐漸減少，但我認為會有點棘手。到明年，你會看到情況有所改善。

And our next question comes from Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Few questions. Maybe just the backtrack on the increase to WFE this year of the, let's call it, $2 billion to $3 billion increase. Is that mainly situated in the second half? How should we think about, I guess, timing between calendar 3Q and 4Q? And I guess how much of the upside is HBM oriented?

幾個問題。也許只是今年 WFE 的增幅有所回落，我們稱之為 20 億到 30 億美元的增幅。這主要發生在下半年嗎？我們應該如何考慮第三季和第四季之間的時間表？ HBM 的上行潛力有多少？

Yes, Brian, I guess what I'd say is it is a little bit second half weighted, and the things we pointed to in our scripts were little bit of upside in China -- China domestic and a little bit of high bandwidth memory. I don't think we're going to put a quantification between the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the calendar year, except to say it's a little bit second half weighted.

是的，布萊恩，我想說的是，下半年的業績略有加權，我們在腳本中提到的是中國市場略有上漲——中國國內市場以及高頻寬記憶體市場。我認為我們不會量化今年第三季和第四季的業績，只能說下半年的業績略有加權。

Okay. That's fair enough. Maybe for my follow-up, clearly, there's a lot of focus on high bandwidth DRAM. But Tim, I was wondering, could you interject maybe your thoughts on the role of the role that SSD and flash storage might play in generative AI? And I'm sure that's factored into sort of that 1% penetration for AI servers and kind of that $1 billion to $1.5 billion WFE investment?

好的。這很公平。也許在我的後續問題中，很明顯，人們非常關注高頻寬 DRAM。但 Tim，我想知道，您能否談談您對 SSD 和閃存在生成式 AI 中可能扮演的角色的看法？我確信這已經考慮到了 AI 伺服器 1% 的滲透率以及 10 億到 15 億美元的 WFE 投資？

It is. And I think that was even in my answer to the last question was, I think there's still a lot of debate as to how much storage really gets driven in this, but we're a believer that there is some element of demand driven there. I think that when we think about DRAM, there's a couple of things at play in terms of what drives it. One is, of course, the HBM also increases die size, I think, as you know. And that leads perhaps to even greater WFE increase associated both with the silicon side of that as well as the packaging side. I'm not sure that same dynamic exists on the NAND side, but in terms of it's consumption, it feels like there should be some. But again, I'm willing to sort of let this play out a little further to see what the new model should be. And we talk closely to our customers to see what they're seeing in the marketplace as well.

是的。我想，即使在我回答最後一個問題時，我也說過，關於儲存量在多大程度上受到推動，仍然存在很多爭議，但我們相信其中存在一些需求驅動因素。我認為，當我們考慮DRAM時，有幾個因素在起作用。首先，當然，如你所知，HBM也會增加晶片尺寸。這可能會導致矽片和封裝方面WFE的進一步增加。我不確定NAND方面是否存在同樣的動態，但就其消耗而言，感覺應該會增加。不過，我願意進一步觀察，看看新的模式應該是什麼樣的。我們也會與客戶密切溝通，了解他們在市場上看到了什麼。

Yes, Brian, this is Doug. I don't know if this helps. But when I look at like the composition of some of these AI servers, nominally, there's roughly 8x the DRAM versus an enterprise class server and 3x demand from a storage standpoint. I don't know if that will help you get your head wrapped around it. But DRAM is clearly a little bit more enabling on the compute side, but storage picks up also.

是的，Brian，我是Doug。我不知道這是否有幫助。但當我觀察一些AI伺服器的組成時，名義上，DRAM大約是企業級伺服器的8倍，而從儲存的角度來看，需求是企業級伺服器的3倍。我不知道這是否能幫助您理解。但DRAM在運算方面顯然更具優勢，但儲存方面也是如此。

Got it. And probably scale out of these language models probably also could increase that storage potential over time. But thanks for your input.

明白了。而且，隨著時間的推移，擴展這些語言模型或許也能提升儲存潛力。不過，還是感謝您的意見。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Tim or Doug. Just on China, I was hoping you guys could give a little more color in terms of what you're seeing on the ground. Doug, I think you said China was 26% of revenue and a big chunk of that was domestic. What sort of the makeup by application, foundry, memory and other? And I guess, importantly, how should we think about sustainability going forward? It's really hard to tell from our standpoint, just given the spend is so strategic, right? It's not necessarily tied directly to near-term economics. So it's hard for us. But in terms of what you're hearing from customers, what is the feedback? And how much visibility are the you going forward?

蒂姆或道格。就中國市場而言，我希望你們能更詳細地介紹一下你們目前看到的情況。道格，我記得你說過中國市場佔了公司總收入的26%，其中很大一部分來自國內市場。那麼，應用程式、代工廠、記憶體和其他方面佔比如何呢？還有，我想，重要的是，我們該如何看待未來的永續性？從我們的角度來看，這真的很難說，因為這些支出具有戰略意義，對吧？它不一定與短期經濟狀況有直接關係。所以這對我們來說很難。但就你從客戶那裡聽到的情況而言，回饋如何？你們對未來的預期有多大？

Yes. I think that it's split. I mean, obviously, on the domestic China side between some memory investments as well as a lot of specialty technologies, trailing edge focus on end markets, I think we're all familiar with automotive and industrial and those types of markets. As you mentioned, it's strategic. I mean, these are customers that are giving us long-term forecasts. Doug talked last quarter about deferred revenues are impacted by some of the down payments, at least within the visibility horizon that we need, we feel we have a pretty good view of a fair bit of investment that this continues in China, especially in those specialty technology markets where new fabs are emerging to try to capture some element of those trailing edge end markets.

是的，我認為是分裂的。我的意思是，顯然，在中國國內，我們既投資了一些內存，也投資了許多專業技術，重點關注的是終端市場，我想我們都熟悉汽車、工業和這類市場。正如您所說，這是戰略性的。我的意思是，這些客戶會給我們長期預測。 Doug 上個季度談到遞延收入會受到部分首付款的影響，至少在我們所需的可預見範圍內，我們認為我們相當看好中國市場會繼續進行相當一部分投資，尤其是在那些專業技術市場，新的晶圓廠正在湧現，試圖搶佔這些後緣終端市場的部分份額。

That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, maybe 1 for Doug on gross margin. You talked about operational efforts and initiatives a couple of times what exactly are you doing today? I know there's no ending to things like this, but which inning are you in, in terms of reaping some of the benefits? And you used to talk about Malaysia as a headwind a year ago, 1.5 years ago, where are you with the ramp there? And how should we think about the tailwind as volumes recover going forward?

這很有幫助。接下來，Doug 的毛利率大概是 1。您幾次談到營運工作和舉措，您現在具體在做什麼？我知道這類事情永無止境，但就獲得利益而言，您處於哪個階段？一年前或一年半前，您曾將馬來西亞視為逆風，那麼您在那裡的成長情況如何？隨著銷量的回升，我們該如何看待順風？

Yes. I think, Toshiya, the way to think about it is business is down. Right now, we're not really growing anywhere. I think as we see growth come back, whenever that is, the pivot to that Malaysia factory, which has an opportunity to do more than it's doing today. Will be largely what you see from us. Now maybe to help with the restructuring activities, we embarked on plans to kind of restructure the cost footprint of the company. And maybe the best way to think about it, I've given you a forecast. We think we're going to take charges of $250 million at this point. We've taken $143 million at the end of the last quarter.

是的。 Toshiya，我認為，我們應該這樣想：業務下滑了。目前，我們幾乎沒有任何成長。我認為，隨著成長的恢復，無論何時，我們都會將重心轉向馬來西亞工廠，那裡有機會比現在做得更多。這基本上就是你們所看到的我們所做的。現在，也許是為了幫助重組活動，我們啟動了重組公司成本足跡的計劃。也許最好的思考方式是，我之前給了你們一個預測。我們預計目前的費用將為2.5億美元。上個季度末，我們的費用為1.43億美元。

So we still have some things we're working on. Although I would tell you the workforce portion of it is complete. We're done with that aspect of it. So that's behind us, we believe. So there's just some other things we're doing around looking at product, repositioning inventory, maybe a little bit of infrastructure stuff were embarked upon what will be a multiyear digital transformation initiative at the company, which will deliver efficiencies over the next several years. So there's a handful of things that are still coming in the future, I guess, is what I would describe.

所以我們還有一些事情正在進行中。不過我想說的是，勞動力部分已經完成了。我們已經完成了這方面的工作。所以，我們相信，這些都已經過去了。我們還在做一些其他的事情，例如產品評估、庫存重新定位，或許還有一些基礎設施方面的工作，我們正在著手進行一項為期多年的公司數位轉型計劃，該計劃將在未來幾年提高效率。所以，我想，未來還會有一些事情要做，我是這樣描述的。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

I have 2 questions on leading-edge investments. I thought -- you gave an interesting data point that 1% AI server adoption leads to $1 billion to $1.5 billion incremental WFE. When I listened to the major foundry in Taiwan, they talked about 50% AI semi growth rate in the next few years but they're not really raising CapEx this year. And we believe AI server adoption is probably like high single digit, 8%, 9%. So what explains the discrepancy in terms of not seeing a lift in leading-edge investments from the higher server adoption? Maybe it's just underutilization in other end markets.

我有兩個關於前沿技術投資的問題。我認為—您提供了一個有趣的數據點，即1%的AI伺服器採用率將帶來10億至15億美元的WFE增量。我聽台灣一家大型晶圓代工廠談到未來幾年AI半導體的成長率將達到50%，但今年的資本支出並沒有真正增加。我們認為AI伺服器的採用率可能只有個位數的高位，例如8%或9%。那麼，如何解釋這種差異：伺服器採用率的提高並沒有帶來前沿技術投資的成長？也許只是其他終端市場的使用率不足。

I guess what I think about it, Atif, is these are longer-term statements we're making. I think you're right about the composition of AI servers. In the short term, you're not really going to see a meaningful uptick in WFE, frankly. This is going to occur over the next several years. As more of -- and you're right, I think server volumes largely, I don't know, mid- to, I'd call it, mid-single digit percentage of total servers. I think that grows over time.

Atif，我的想法是，這些都是我們長期的展望。我認為你關於AI伺服器構成的觀點是正確的。坦白說，短期內，WFE不會有顯著的成長。這種情況將在未來幾年內出現。你說得對，我認為伺服器數量在很大程度上，也就是，我不太確定，佔伺服器總量的中等到中等個位數百分比。我認為這個比例會隨著時間的推移而增長。

But in the short term, it doesn't really show up as quickly as you might think. It requires sort of capital investments to occur for future demand. That doesn't really happen in a meaningful way in the short term.

但短期內，它不會像你想像的那麼快顯現。它需要某種資本投資來滿足未來的需求。短期內，這實際上不會以有意義的方式實現。

Got it, Doug. And then as my follow-up, you guys are very well leveraged to gate all around, particularly on the etch side and have been waiting for this technology inflection for the last 3 years. Your peer in Europe is talking about pilot line orders in December quarter this year. And Tim spoke about having better visibility versus 6 months ago. So my question to you is, when do you see the gate-all-around opportunity kind of grow meaningful for you? Is it the first half of next year or second half of next year?

明白了，Doug。接下來我想問一下，你們在環柵技術方面非常有優勢，尤其是在蝕刻方面，並且過去三年一直在等待這項技術轉折點。你們歐洲的同業談到了今年12月季度的試產線訂單。 Tim也提到了比6個月前更好的可預測性。所以我的問題是，您認為環柵技術的機會何時會對您產生實際意義？是明年上半年還是下半年？

I think it starts in line with the time line that you just talked about and it's first -- through the first half and second half of next year. I mean these things tend to ramp and I think we are at the point where gate-all-around is going to become more meaningful. We'll see that in growth in some of the traditional products that are sort of lumped in with everything else. But then there are specialized products that we talked about, like selective etch those -- that suite of tools that's very specialized for applications like gate-all-around, we'll see faster growth in those segments, I think, as we move through '24 and on into '25. So yes, maybe we're at that key inflection point. How that overcomes and the rest of the market dynamics in '24? We're not ready to guide '24 yet, but some of those technology trends are starting to move in our favor.

我認為它開始的時間與你剛才提到的時間線一致，首先是明年上半年和下半年。我的意思是，這些事情往往會加速發展，我認為我們正處於環柵技術將變得更有意義的節點。我們會看到一些傳統產品的成長，這些產品與其他產品混在一起。但是，還有一些我們之前提到的專用產品，例如選擇性蝕刻——那些專門針對環柵技術等應用的工具套件，我認為，隨著我們度過2024年並邁入2025年，我們將看到這些領域出現更快的增長。所以，是的，也許我們正處於關鍵的轉折點。那麼，2024年其他市場動態如何？我們還沒準備好預測2024年，但其中一些技術趨勢正開始對我們有利。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wanted to follow up on the China question. I guess, how are you seeing the impact of last year's export controls? Is that -- your China business has obviously done pretty well since then given the headwinds? Have there been -- have the restrictions been what you thought they would be? Is there anything that's different? And then there continue to be rumblings of additional controls. Do you have any visibility into what that could look like?

我想繼續問一下關於中國的問題。您如何看待去年出口管制的影響？考慮到當時的不利因素，你們在中國的業務顯然表現得相當不錯。這些限制措施是否和您預想的一樣？有什麼變化嗎？而且，關於進一步實施管制的傳聞不斷出現。您能預見未來會是什麼樣子嗎？

Yes, Joe, we had talked last -- at the end -- towards the end of last year, right around the October 7 announcement that the impact to our business this year would be $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We clarified earlier this year that because we were able to make some shipments for trailing-etch memory that we had not -- we weren't sure whether we could that impact was going to be closer to the $2 billion mark. That is still what we estimate the impact of last year's restrictions, the October 7 restrictions on our business, $2 billion of revenue.

是的，喬，我們上次談過，也就是去年年底，也就是10月7日宣布禁令前後，當時我們宣布今年對我們業務的影響將在20億到25億美元之間。我們今年早些時候澄清過，因為我們能夠出貨一些之前沒有的尾隨蝕刻記憶體——我們不確定是否能夠——那麼影響將接近20億美元。這仍然是我們對去年10月7日禁令對我們業務的影響的估計，即20億美元的收入。

Now at the same time, as China has shifted its focus towards the areas they can invest, these trailing etch, foundry logic and some of the trailing edge memory, we've seen that upticking a bit as we've moved through this year, and that's what we just spoke about. So I can't really speak to future regulations that may or may not be contemplated. We have a team in Washington, D.C. that's regularly engaged with the government, make sure they understand our business and the details of the semiconductor industry, and that's about the best we can do right now.

同時，隨著中國將重點轉向其可以投資的領域，例如後繼蝕刻、代工邏輯和一些後緣存儲器，我們看到今年以來，這一領域有所回升，這就是我們剛才談到的。因此，我無法談論未來可能會或可能不會考慮的監管規定。我們在華盛頓特區有一個團隊，定期與政府部門溝通，確保他們了解我們的業務和半導體行業的細節，這是我們目前能做的最好的事情。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Tim, I'm curious, what should be the signs we should look for, for when memory utilization starts to pick up? And when orders do you guys start to improve? So if you look at historical trends, should we be waiting for like 1 quarter of pricing improvement, 2 quarters of pricing improvement? Just what are kind of the external metrics we should be keeping an eye on to try and predict when memory WFE should start to pick up?

Tim，我很好奇，當記憶體使用率開始回升時，我們應該尋找哪些跡象？你們的訂單量什麼時候開始回升？所以，如果你看看歷史趨勢，我們應該等待1季的價格改善，還是2季的價格改善？我們應該關注哪些外部指標來預測記憶體WFE何時開始回升？

Yes, a little bit difficult, I guess, just from the standpoint that, obviously, pricing improvement in memory, would tend to start to get customers interested in greater utilization of the fab. I think easier, I was going to answer relative to what you'd see in Lam. Obviously, once we start reporting an uptick in our CSBG spares and service businesses, obviously, it's an indicator that fabs are starting to be utilized more, and therefore, consuming spares and service. That's why I mentioned a little earlier that we are expecting to be really 1 of the first beneficiaries of a recovery in memory because so much of the -- there have been such deep utilization cuts in the memory fabs, that the spares and service side of our business has been impacted to a greater degree than we would have expected. When they turn those back on, that revenue should come back, and that will probably be your first indications from Lam's reported numbers of what's going on.

是的，我想這有點難，因為從記憶體價格的改善顯然會促使客戶對提高晶圓廠利用率感興趣的角度來看。我覺得比較容易回答，我本來是想根據你在Lam看到的情況來回答。顯然，一旦我們開始報告CSBG備件和服務業務的成長，這顯然表明晶圓廠的利用率開始提高，從而消耗備件和服務。這就是為什麼我之前提到，我們預計將成為內存復甦的首批受益者之一，因為內存晶圓廠的利用率大幅下降，以至於我們業務的備件和服務方面受到的影響比我們預期的要大。當他們恢復這些業務時，收入應該會回升，這可能是你從Lam報告的數據中首次了解到的情況。

I guess that was really the origin of the question because from what I heard on the call, I think you were suggesting there was a scenario in which CSBG revenues do start to pick up sequentially in the next quarter. But then you mentioned that the visibility around memory utilization, right, is not there from an industry perspective. So is there still a delta between the two?

我想這才是問題的真正來源，因為從我在電話會議上聽到的內容來看，我認為您暗示的是，CSBG 的收入在下個季度確實會開始環比回升。但您隨後提到，從產業角度來看，記憶體利用率的可視性尚不明確。那麼，兩者之間是否仍存在差異？

Vivek, we did not suggest CSBG is picking up in the next quarter. That was not a statement anybody on the call made. So if we said something that led you did that conclusion, maybe we misspoke or perhaps you misinterpreted something else we've said.

維韋克，我們並沒有暗示CSBG會在下個季度回升。電話會議上沒有人這麼說過。所以，如果我們說了什麼導致你得出這個結論，那可能是我們說錯了，或者你誤解了我們說的其他內容。

Okay. Sorry. Maybe I misheard. Then maybe for my second question, Doug, the gross margin upside in Q3, right, it was quite sizable. I don't remember the last time you had such a strong gross margin upside. I think you mentioned something along the lines of mix. Is that mix unsustainable? Like is that likely to reverse, right, at some point? What is the right way to think about the sustainability of gross margins at these levels. So let's say if you assume that your sales continue to grow sequentially, then can gross margins continue to be at plus minus these levels? Or is there something that would dramatically change in the mix to change the trajectory of gross margins?

好的。抱歉，我可能聽錯了。那麼我的第二個問題，Doug，第三季的毛利率上升幅度確實很大。我不記得上次毛利率上升這麼快是什麼時候了。我記得你提到了產品組合的問題。這種組合是否不可持續？例如，這種情況會在某個時候逆轉嗎？如何正確看待毛利率在當前水準的可持續性？假設你的銷售額持續較上季成長，那麼毛利率還能繼續維持在正負水準嗎？或者說，產品組合中是否存在一些會顯著改變毛利率走勢的因素？

Vivek, I don't know if there's anything I'd point to that is dramatic. I suggested 2 things. One, our operational efforts in terms of just efficiencies and whatnot, it is maybe a little further ahead of where I thought it would have been. And I did point to favorable mix in the current quarter. You always see mix up and down, both products as well as customer mix. We're benefiting a little bit in the September quarter. I don't know if you'll see that same magnitude of mix benefit in December. The operational stuff, we will.

Vivek，我不知道有什麼特別突出的面向。我建議兩點。第一，我們的營運工作，例如效率等等，可能比我預想的要好一些。第二，我的確提到了本季的產品組合是不錯的。你總是會看到產品組合上下波動，無論是產品組合或是客戶組合。我們在9月份季度獲得了一些收益。我不知道12月份是否還會看到同樣幅度的產品組合收益。至於營運方面，我們會的。

I wouldn't run too far away from where we are right now into the near term anyway. But I would tell you, I'm very pleased with what we've been able to execute and the things that are in our own control, we've done extremely well.

無論如何，短期內我不會偏離我們目前的水平太遠。但我要說的是，我對我們目前所取得的成果感到非常滿意，而且在我們掌控範圍內的事情，我們做得非常好。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

For my first one, you talked about the bulk of the China $1.8 billion in deferred selling through in the second half time. How much of that $1.8 billion actually is coming from China? And how much of that do you actually see yourself recognizing in the second half? And is it more in Q3, Q4? Do you have any idea on the timing of that?

我的第一個問題，您提到了下半年中國18億美元的遞延銷售收入中的大部分。這18億美元中有多少實際上來自中國？您預計下半年會實際實現多少？更多是在第三季或第四季實現？您知道具體時間安排嗎？

Yes. I've never said how much of it is in China. I've described it as newer customers, right? Customers that are new that we're not exactly sure of the creditworthiness, we require cash in advance before we build the tools. I haven't put a number on how much of it is China. Although a decent amount of it is. And what I said on how much that turns to revenue, as I said, the majority of it turns to revenue in the second half of the year.

是的。我從未說過其中有多少來自中國。我指的是新客戶，對吧？對於那些我們不太確定其信用狀況的新客戶，我們需要預付現金才能製造工具。我沒有具體說明其中有多少來自中國。雖然其中有相當一部分來自中國。至於其中有多少轉化為收入，正如我所說，大部分轉化為收入是在下半年。

So like you have $1.8 billion of revenue that will be recognized in the second half from that deferred? Like what would be the normal amount that would imagine, I'm just trying to get a few in the delta?

那麼，你們下半年將從這筆遞延收入中確認 18 億美元的收入嗎？正常情況下這個數字應該是多少呢？我只是想了解一下增量資料。

No, Stacy, there's a normalized level of deferred revenue that's always here, always has been here, and you should expect to always be here. It's probably $750 million to $1 billion on a regular basis, I think, is what you've seen from us in the past. I wouldn't expect it to be too different than that. We've just got a lot of this cash in advance payments right now that's why it's elevated.

不，史黛西，遞延收入的正常水準一直都在，過去一直都在，而且你應該預期會一直都在。我想，我們之前的定期收入大概在7.5億到10億美元之間。我預計不會有太大變化。我們現在有很多預付款，所以遞延收入這麼高。

Got it. For my second question, so you're talking memory WFE down in the mid-40s. Can you give us a feeling for how you see DRAM versus NAND breaking out in that? And whether or not your views on both of those have changed over the last 90 days versus like where we were a quarter ago?

明白了。我的第二個問題，您說的是內存WFE會下降到40多美元。您能不能跟我們談談，您認為DRAM和NAND在這方面的突破如何？以及您對這兩者的看法在過去90天裡與一個季度前相比是否有所變化？

We've said that NAND is obviously by far worse. We said about -- down about 75% year-on-year. So obviously, that was quite bad. I mean DRAM then obviously less than down mid-40s. And I think that in terms of change, we've seen a little bit of improvement, as we've just talked about with HBM and some signs of at least a little bit more optimism on our part that the DRAM would be the first to recover as a result of some of these trends. And again, just listening to our customers and talking to them, we've heard some customers talk about further cuts in NAND just in the last 24 hours. So...

我們之前說過，NAND 的情況顯然要糟糕得多。我們之前說過，年比下降了約 75%。顯然，這很糟糕。我的意思是，DRAM 的降幅明顯小於 40% 左右。我認為，就變化而言，我們已經看到了一些改善，就像我們剛才談到的 HBM 一樣，而且有一些跡象表明，我們至少對 DRAM 持更樂觀的態度，認為 DRAM 會率先復甦。再說一次，我們傾聽客戶的意見，並與他們進行了交流，在過去 24 小時內，我們聽到一些客戶談到 NAND 的進一步降價。所以…

Do you think utilization in DRAM is still falling?

您認為 DRAM 的利用率還在下降嗎？

It's still at a pretty low level, Stacy.

它仍然處於相當低的水平，史黛西。

Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

Maybe just following back up on what Stacy just asked. I was just kind of confused. You raised the outlook for WFE by a couple billion, and it seemed like it was memory, that was the inflection. But then when you talk about memory, it seems like NAND is kind of flattish. And I'm just kind of curious how much of the increase is there in DRAM? Or is really the growth you're seeing in September more kind of this China part that Stacy was just asking about?

也許只是順著Stacy剛才的問題繼續問。我有點困惑。你把WFE的預期提高了幾十億美元，看起來好像是內存，這是一個拐點。但是當你談到記憶體時，似乎NAND的成長有點平緩。我只是有點好奇DRAM的成長有多少？還是你9月看到的成長更多是Stacy剛才提到的中國市場？

Yes, Blayne, Tim pointed to 2 things. A little bit more in China and high-bandwidth memory as -- it's not a huge uptick in WFE, but those are the contributors.

是的，布萊恩，提姆指出了兩件事。中國市場和高頻寬記憶體的增幅略大一些，雖然WFE的成長幅度不大，但這些都是貢獻因素。

Got you. And then I guess, I just want to understand, there's 2 moving pieces in foundry logic, and you've seen some delays at the leading etch. Can you just -- some commentary between those moving pieces, kind of the non-China piece, what are you seeing for the back half of this year?

明白了。然後我想了解一下，代工邏輯領域有兩個變化因素，而且您已經看到領先的蝕刻製程出現了一些延遲。您能否對這些變化因素（例如非中國因素）進行一些評論？您對今年下半年的前景有何展望？

We described in generally, when you look at WFE down, where it is. Memory is down mid-40s, and you probably know kind of where that is run rating suggested foundry logic, looks like it's down roughly 10%. And yes, you're right, there's been a little bit of a softening in leading-edge foundry logic. We talked a little bit about that last quarter. I'm not sure we're describing anything incremental. Perhaps we saw some things others didn't see sooner than they did. But that's how we see things setting up right now.

我們大致描述了一下，當你看到WFE下降時，它處於什麼位置。記憶體下降了40%左右，你可能也知道，根據運行評級顯示，代工邏輯晶片似乎下降了大約10%。是的，你說得對，前沿代工邏輯晶片確實出現了一些疲軟。我們上個季度討論過這個問題。我不確定我們描述的是漸進式成長。也許我們看到了一些其他人沒有更早發現的情況。但這就是我們目前看到的情況。

Operator, we have time for 1 more question, please.

接線員，我們還有時間再回答一個問題。

And ladies and gentlemen, our final question will come from Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho.

女士們、先生們，我們的最後一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just a question on -- as you look at WFE for next year, any thoughts on how much some of these onshore greenfield fabs could contribute to CapEx for next year?

只是一個問題——當您展望明年的 WFE 時，您認為這些陸上綠地晶圓廠可以為明年的資本支出貢獻多少？

Well, I think it's -- as we're just in the middle of this year, it's too early to talk about '24 from an absolute number. But clearly, as we move through the next couple of years, I talked about this -- these regionalization efforts building momentum. I do think that we'll see that becoming a meaningful contributor to spending, not only here but in other parts of the world.

嗯，我認為——鑑於我們才剛剛進入今年年中，現在就從絕對數字來談論24年還為時過早。但顯然，隨著我們未來幾年的發展，正如我之前所說——這些區域化努力正在累積勢頭。我確實認為，我們會看到它不僅對美國，而且對世界其他地區的支出產生有意義的貢獻。

Got it. And then on the AI side, obviously, you have mentioned packaging as a big road map there. When you look at CoWoS packaging, any thoughts on how much -- what your exposure is there and how you see that growing next year, I guess?

明白了。然後，在人工智慧方面，顯然您提到了封裝是其重要的發展路線圖。說到 CoWoS 封裝，您覺得您在這方面的曝光度如何？您認為明年會如何發展？

Yes. I mean everything related to advanced packaging is growing right now. And I would say Lam's exposure kind of across the board in etch and deposition is very strong. So I called out specifically HBM, but you're right. I mean when you look at the importance of things like CoWoS to an AI package system, our exposure there even broadens further to the types of tools that we sell in there.

是的。我的意思是，現在所有與先進封裝相關的領域都在發展。我想說，Lam 在蝕刻和沈積領域擁有非常強大的曝光度。所以我特別提到了 HBM，但你說得對。我的意思是，當你考慮到 CoWoS 等技術對 AI 封裝系統的重要性時，我們在這方面的曝光度甚至會進一步擴大到我們在那裡銷售的工具類型。

And I mentioned at this point, if people caught it, even in advanced packaging, we're having to invest in new technologies for atomic scale processing. And so you can see things like ALD being used in advanced packaging now. So we're really in a world where ALD is being used for advanced packaging. ALE is being used for 200-millimeter GaN. I think that it is creating tremendous opportunities for Lam to leverage our really broad portfolio of technologies for all these new emerging growth opportunities. And it's pretty exciting.

我剛才提到，如果有人發現了這一點，即使在先進封裝領域，我們也必須投資原子級加工的新技術。所以，現在你可以看到原子層沉積 (ALD) 技術正在應用於先進封裝。所以我們確實處在一個 ALD 技術應用於先進封裝的世界。 ALE 技術正用於 200 毫米 GaN。我認為這為泛林集團創造了巨大的機會，讓我們能夠利用我們廣泛的技術組合來應對所有這些新興的成長機會。這非常令人興奮。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be turning the floor back over to the management team for any closing remarks. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll be closing today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，現在，我們將把發言權交還給管理團隊，請他們發表結束語。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議即將結束。感謝各位的參與。現在，您可以掛斷電話了。