科林研發 (LRCX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Lam Research December 2024 earnings conference call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2024 年 12 月收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ram Ganesh, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Ram Ganesh。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝大家，下午好。

Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度財報電話會議。

With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the December 2024 quarter and our outlook for the March 2025 quarter.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧 2024 年 12 月季度的財務表現和 2025 年 3 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 01:00 PM Pacific Time.

詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿於太平洋時間下午 1 點後不久發布。

The release can also be found on the investor relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

新聞稿也可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報幻燈片。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的公開文件中披露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。

Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

請參閱簡報中的附帶幻燈片以獲取更多資訊。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

在簡報的附帶幻燈片中可以找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細對帳。

This call is scheduled to last until 03:00 PM Pacific Time.

此次通話預計將持續至太平洋時間下午 3:00。

A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon our website.

今天下午晚些時候我們將在我們的網站上重播通話。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

說完這些，我會把電話交給提姆。

Thank you, Ram and thank you all for joining the call today.

謝謝你，拉姆，也謝謝大家今天的參加電話會議。

Lam closed out 2024 with another solid performance.

林鄭月娥以另一場出色表現結束了 2024 年的旅程。

December quarter revenue, gross margin, operating margin and EPS were all above our guidance midpoints, reflecting strong and consistent operational execution.

12 月季度的營收、毛利率、營業利潤率和每股盈餘均高於我們的預期中位數，反映出強勁且一致的營運執行。

Wait for fabrication equipment spending for 2024 finished in line with the mid $90 billion range we guided earlier in the year.

等待製造設備支出到 2024 年將達到我們今年稍早預測的 900 億美元中間水準。

Overall, 2024 was a good year for Lam, even as NAND spending remained at muted levels.

總體而言，即使 NAND 支出仍處於較低水平，2024 年對 Lam 來說仍然是豐收的一年。

System revenues in both DRAM and Foundry Logic grew to record highs, and the size of our installed base increased to approximately 96,000 chambers.

DRAM 和 Foundry Logic 的系統收入都創下歷史新高，我們的安裝基數規模增加到約 96,000 個腔室。

Our results show that we are making good progress on our strategy of broadening Lam's exposure across end market device segments.

我們的結果表明，我們在擴大 Lam 在終端市場設備領域影響力的策略上取得了良好的進展。

It also demonstrates the increasing strength of our product portfolio as semiconductors move into the AI era.

這也顯示隨著半導體進入人工智慧時代，我們的產品組合實力日益增強。

For example, gate all around and advanced packaging technologies are critical enablers for AI device manufacturing, including GPUs and high bandwidth memory.

例如，全閘極和先進的封裝技術是 AI 設備製造的關鍵推動因素，包括 GPU 和高頻寬記憶體。

They're also highly deposition and etch intensive.

它們的沉積和蝕刻強度也很高。

And as a result, we saw Lam's shipments for gate all around nodes and advanced packaging each grow to exceed $1 billion in 2024.

結果，我們看到 Lam 的閘極全向節點和先進封裝的出貨量在 2024 年均會成長至超過 10 億美元。

In calendar 2025, we see WFE spending rising slightly to approximately $100 billion.

到 2025 年，我們預計 WFE 支出將小幅上升至約 1,000 億美元。

Again, we expect technology inflections to lead to faster growth for Lam as AI applications demand greater device and package level performance.

同樣，我們預計技術變革將推動泛林集團實現更快的成長，因為人工智慧應用需要更高的裝置和封裝級效能。

In 2025 Lam shipments to gate all around nodes and advanced packaging combined should be well over $3 billion.

到 2025 年，Lam 面向閘極全向節點和先進封裝的出貨量總計將遠遠超過 30 億美元。

Customer migration towards backside power distribution and drive resist processing technologies will add further opportunity in the coming year.

客戶向背面配電和驅動光阻處理技術的遷移將為來年帶來更多機會。

As we look forward, we do the increasing importance of deposition and etch technology as a differentiator for Lam and an opportunity to outperform.

展望未來，我們認為沉積和蝕刻技術的重要性日益增加，這對 Lam 來說是一個差異化因素，也是一個超越的機會。

With this in mind, we have made strategic investments over the past few years to expand our R&D infrastructure, scale our organization and transform our innovation process for greater speed.

考慮到這一點，我們在過去幾年中進行了策略性投資，以擴大我們的研發基礎設施，擴大我們的組織規模，並轉變我們的創新流程，以提高速度。

We are now seeing these investments yield important product advances.

我們現在看到這些投資產生了重要的產品進步。

Our recently introduced Cryo 3.0 technology is winning at the leading edge, delivering best in class results for high aspect ratio dielectric etch applications on our latest Vantex CX+ product and also helping extend the capabilities of our large Flex installed base through Cryo upgrades.

我們最近推出的 Cryo 3.0 技術處於領先地位，在我們最新的 Vantex CX+ 產品上的高深寬比電介質蝕刻應用上提供了一流的結果，同時還透過 Cryo 升級幫助擴展了我們龐大的 Flex 安裝基礎的功能。

Our breakthrough dry resist capability for EUV is enabling patterning of extremely fine devices, vice features with greater precision, reduced defectivity, higher productivity and reduced environmental impact.

我們在 EUV 方面取得的突破性乾光阻能力能夠對極其精細的設備進行圖案化，並且具有更高的精度、更低的缺陷率、更高的生產率和更少的環境影響。

You may have seen that earlier today, we announced that our Aether dry resist solution has achieved a major milestone, having just been selected as the production tool of record for high bandwidth DRAM at a leading memory customer.

您可能已經看到，今天早些時候，我們宣布我們的 Aether 乾式光阻解決方案已實現一個重要里程碑，剛剛被一家領先記憶體客戶選為高頻寬 DRAM 的生產工具。

Technology inflections in DRAM and Foundry Logic combined with an upgrade focused NAND environment create what we believe is a unique setup for Lam to outgrow WFE spending and strengthen our bottom line in calendar 2025.

我們認為，DRAM 和 Foundry Logic 的技術變化與注重升級的 NAND 環境相結合，為 Lam 創造了一個獨特的設置，使其能夠超越 WFE 支出並在 2025 年增強我們的盈利能力。

In NAND, the industry is looking to transition the current installed capacity to higher layer counts to achieve better device performance at lower bit cost.

在 NAND 領域，業界正在尋求將目前安裝的容量轉變為更高的層數，以更低的位元成本實現更好的設備性能。

Here several trends play to our favor.

這裡有幾個趨勢對我們有利。

One is the transition from molybdenum or Moly.

一種是從鉬或鉬過渡而來。

Lam's patented multi station sequential deposition technology allows us to employ a differentiated liner and fill process sequence that is proving to be a winner with customers.

Lam 的專利多站順序沉積技術使我們能夠採用差異化的襯墊和填充工藝順序，事實證明該技術非常受客戶青睞。

The momentum for our new Moly product is strong.

我們的新鉬產品發展勢頭強勁。

A second trend is the adoption of carbon gap fill to enable higher bit density and lower cost through multi tier stacking.

第二個趨勢是採用碳間隙填充，透過多層堆疊實現更高的位元密度並降低成本。

Our innovative PECVD based pure carbon gapfill process provides high etch selectivity, superior mechanical properties and simplified drive process removability.

我們創新的基於 PECVD 的純碳間隙填充製程提供了高蝕刻選擇性、卓越的機械性能和簡化的驅動製程可去除性。

While we are in the early innings of these transitions and early in the industry upgrade cycle overall, we expect adoption of Moly and carbon gapfill to drive several hundred million dollars in NAND shipments for Lam in calendar 2025.

雖然我們正處於這些轉變的初期，並且總體上處於行業升級週期的早期，但我們預計，到 2025 年，鉬和碳填補材料的採用將為泛林集團帶來數億美元的 NAND 出貨量。

Lam's opportunity will grow even further in future years as more of the million plus wafer starts per month installed capacity converts to higher layer counts.

隨著每月超過一百萬片的晶圓安裝產能轉化為更高層數的產能，未來幾年 Lam 的機會將進一步成長。

The differentiation we are delivering for customers runs deeper than the process technology itself.

我們為客戶提供的差異化比製程技術本身更為深刻。

Our Semiverse solutions capabilities apply advanced modeling, simulation, data science, analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence to further enhance our equipment performance and reduce the time needed for process optimization.

我們的 Semiverse 解決方案功能採用先進的建模、模擬、數據科學、分析、機器學習和人工智慧來進一步提高我們的設備性能並減少流程優化所需的時間。

This is strengthening our competitiveness and most recently, we used our Semiverse solutions capabilities to successfully defend the key dielectric etch application at a major memory manufacturer.

這增強了我們的競爭力，最近，我們利用我們的 Semiverse 解決方案功能成功地捍衛了主要記憶體製造商的關鍵電介質蝕刻應用。

Furthermore, we are leveraging these capabilities to help address the semiconductor industry's global workforce shortage.

此外，我們正在利用這些能力來幫助解決半導體產業全球勞動力短缺的問題。

Through collaborations with universities in the United States, India and Korea, Semiverse solutions software is already being used to educate the next generation of semiconductor industry innovators.

透過與美國、印度和韓國的大學合作，Semiverse 解決方案軟體已被用於培養下一代半導體產業創新者。

Our goal is to provide access to Lam semiconductor simulation technology to tens of thousands of aspiring engineering students through the rest of the decade.

我們的目標是在未來十年內讓數以萬計有抱負的工程專業學生能夠使用 Lam 半導體模擬技術。

In CSBG, our equipment intelligence and in-fab service automation solutions are seeing significant traction with customers.

在 CSBG，我們的設備智慧和晶圓廠內服務自動化解決方案正在受到客戶的廣泛關注。

Last month, we announced the industry's first collaborative maintenance robot.

上個月，我們發布了業界首款協作維護機器人。

Since then, we have shipped our Dextro cobot to a third major memory manufacturer and it is being installed in their fab as part of a multiyear services agreement.

從那時起，我們已將我們的 Dextro 協作機器人運送給第三家主要記憶體製造商，並作為多年服務協議的一部分安裝在他們的工廠中。

Over the next decade, the semiconductor industry is expected to witness a strong expansion of fab capacity globally, and our cobot technology offers an important and cost effective solution to enable precise and repeatable maintenance beyond what human workers alone can achieve.

未來十年，半導體產業預計將見證全球晶圓廠產能的強勁擴張，而我們的協作機器人技術提供了重要且經濟高效的解決方案，可實現精確、可重複的維護，而這超出了人類工人單獨能夠實現的範圍。

Lastly, our strategic investments in scaling our operations are paying off.

最後，我們在擴大營運方面的策略投資正在獲得回報。

Our Asia operations continue to ramp very efficiently, and in 2024 helped drive meaningful improvement in both our responsiveness to rising customer demand and our gross margin.

我們的亞洲業務繼續高效發展，並在 2024 年幫助我們大幅提升對不斷增長的客戶需求的回應能力和毛利率。

Doug will provide some additional detail in his prepared remarks.

道格將在其準備好的發言中提供一些額外的細節。

But as a headline, I am pleased we delivered in calendar 2024 approximately 160 basis points of operating margin expansion, even as we invested heavily in new products and infrastructure to fuel future growth.

但作為標題，我很高興我們在 2024 年實現了約 160 個基點的營業利潤率成長，即使我們在新產品和基礎設施上投入了大量資金以推動未來成長。

So to wrap up, Lam is in a strong position as we enter the new year.

總而言之，在新的一年即將來臨之際，林鄭月娥將處於有利地位。

Deposition and etch are becoming increasingly vital to semiconductor manufacturing and we have made key investments to strengthen Lam's product portfolio.

沉積和蝕刻對半導體製造越來越重要，我們已進行重點投資以加強Lam的產品組合。

I look forward to sharing more on this at our upcoming Investor Day.

我期待在即將到來的投資者日上分享更多有關此內容的資訊。

Thank you and I'll now pass it on to Doug.

謝謝您，我現在將其轉達給 Doug。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

And thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a very busy earnings season.

感謝您今天在非常繁忙的收益季參加我們的電話會議。

We delivered strong financial results in calendar year 2024 with revenue of $16.2 billion in diluted earnings per share of $3.36. We're obviously pleased with the company's continued strong execution.

我們在 2024 日曆年實現了強勁的財務業績，營收為 162 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 3.36 美元。我們顯然對公司持續強勁的執行力感到滿意。

For calendar year 2024, CSBG revenue increased 11% to $6.6 billion exceeding our expectations.

就 2024 日曆年而言，CSBG 營收成長 11%，達到 66 億美元，超出我們的預期。

Gross margin came in at 48.2% which was the highest annual result since Lam were merged with Novellus in 2013.

毛利率達48.2%，為2013年Lam與Novellus合併以來的最高年度表現。

Let's look at the details of our December quarter financial results.

讓我們來看看 12 月季度財務業績的詳細資訊。

Our revenue gross margin, operating margin and earnings per share were all above the midpoint of our guided range.

我們的收入毛利率、營業利潤率和每股盈餘均高於我們指引範圍的中點。

Revenue for the December quarter was $4.38 billion which was an increase of 5% from the prior quarter.

12 月季度的營收為 43.8 億美元，較上一季成長 5%。

Our deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $2 billion essentially flat with the September quarter.

我們季度末的遞延收入餘額為 20 億美元，與 9 月季度基本持平。

I do believe our deferred revenue balance will trend lower in the calendar year 2025 but will likely fluctuate from quarter to quarter.

我確實相信我們的遞延收入餘額在 2025 日曆年將呈下降趨勢，但可能會在每個季度之間出現波動。

From a market segment perspective, December quarter systems revenue in memory was 50% up from 35% in the prior quarter.

從細分市場來看，12月季度記憶體系統營收比上一季的35％增加了50％。

Within memory, non-volatile memory increased coming in at 24% of our systems revenue up from 11% in the prior quarter.

在記憶體方面，非揮發性記憶體占我們系統收入的 24%，高於上一季的 11%。

This market segment has reached the high point since the end of 2022 driven by NAND spending on tech conversions from 1xx layer class devices to 256 layer.

由於 NAND 從 1xx 層級設備到 256 層的技術轉換支出，這一細分市場自 2022 年底以來已達到高點。

We expect these conversions to continue in calendar year 2025.

我們預計這些轉換將在 2025 年繼續進行。

DRAM represented 26% of systems revenue compared with 24% in the September quarter.

DRAM 佔系統收入的 26%，而 9 月季度為 24%。

DRAM spending was focused on tech upgrades to the one alpha, one beta and some initial ramp of one gamma nodes to enable DDR5 and high bandwidth memory.

DRAM 支出主要集中在對一個 alpha、一個 beta 和一個 gamma 節點的技術升級以及一些初始提升，以實現 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體。

HBM Investments in our tools enabling through silicon via capability continues to be strong.

HBM 對我們透過矽通孔實現功能的工具的投資持續強勁。

Foundry represented 35% of our systems revenue, a decrease from the percentage concentration in the September quarter of 41%.

代工業務占我們系統收入的 35%，較 9 月季度的 41% 有所下降。

Growth for gate all around node spending partially offset the decline in mature node spending.

門控節點支出的成長部分抵消了成熟節點支出的下降。

The Logic and other market segment was 15% of our systems revenue in the December quarter, down from the prior quarter level of 24%.

邏輯和其他市場部分占我們 12 月季度系統收入的 15%，低於上一季的 24%。

The decrease was driven by reduced spending in both leading edge as well as specialty technology nodes.

下降的原因在於前沿技術節點和專業技術節點的支出減少。

Now we'll discuss the regional composition of our total revenue.

現在讓我們來討論一下我們總收入的地區組成。

The China region accounted for 31% which was down from 37% in the prior quarter.

中國地區佔 31%，低於上一季的 37%。

Most of our China revenue continued to come from domestic Chinese customers.

我們在中國的大部分收入仍來自中國國內客戶。

The next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 25% of revenue in the December quarter, an increase compared with the September quarter level of 18%.

其次最大的地理集中地區是韓國，12 月季度的營收佔比為 25%，較 9 月季度的 18% 有所成長。

And finally, Taiwan and the United States rounded out the remainder of the top four regions.

最後，台灣和美國則名列前四名的其餘地區。

The customer support business group generated almost $1.8 billion in revenue for the December quarter, consistent with the September quarter and 20% higher than the same period in 2023.

客戶支援業務集團 12 月季度創造了近 18 億美元的收入，與 9 月季度持平，比 2023 年同期高出 20%。

Sequentially, growth in upgrade revenue largely offset the decline that we saw in Reliant systems.

從環比來看，升級收入的成長在很大程度上抵消了 Reliant 系統收入的下滑。

While spares and the Reliant product line continue to be the two largest components of CSBG revenue generation.

備件和 Reliant 產品線繼續成為 CSBG 收入的兩個最大組成部分。

We achieved record upgrade revenue demonstrating the strength of that growing installed base.

我們實現了創紀錄的升級收入，證明了不斷增長的安裝基數的實力。

Turning to the gross margin performance, the December quarter came in at 47.5% which was above the midpoint of our guided range but was down from the September quarter level of 48.2%.

談到毛利率表現，12 月季度的毛利率為 47.5%，高於我們指引範圍的中點，但低於 9 月季度的 48.2%。

This was primarily a result of unfavorable customer mix which we foreshadowed in the last earnings call.

這主要是由於我們在上次收益電話會議上預示的不利的客戶結構所致。

We've improved elements of our cost structure during the past two years and expanded the gross margin contribution from our Asia operation strategies by a little more than 100 basis points as we exited calendar year 2024.

我們在過去兩年中改善了成本結構的要素，並在 2024 年即將結束時將亞洲營運策略的毛利率貢獻提高了 100 多個基點。

We expect incremental benefit to gross margins as we continue to scale production on a go forward basis from this strategy.

我們預計，隨著我們繼續按照這項策略擴大生產規模，毛利率將獲得增量收益。

Operating expenses for December, we're in line with our expectations at $735 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $722 million.

12 月的營運費用符合我們的預期，為 7.35 億美元，高於上一季的 7.22 億美元。

The increase was primarily due to higher incentive compensation tied to the company's increased profitability.

成長的主要原因是公司獲利能力提高導致的激勵薪酬提高。

R&D accounted for 67% of total operating expenses.

研發費用佔總營業費用的67%。

Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.7%, a little bit below the September quarter level of 30.9% and near the high end of our guidance range, primarily because of that higher revenue and the stronger gross margin performance.

本季的營業利潤率為 30.7%，略低於 9 月季度的 30.9%，接近我們預期範圍的高端，這主要是因為收入增加且毛利率表現強勁。

And I just reiterate what Tim mentioned that we delivered 160 basis point improvement in operating margin for calendar year 2024.

我只是重申提姆提到的，我們在 2024 日曆年的營業利潤率提高了 160 個基點。

Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 13.2%, within range of our expectations.

我們本季的非公認會計準則稅率為 13.2%，在我們的預期範圍內。

Our estimate for the March 2025 quarter is for the tax rate to be in the low to mid-teens range.

我們對 2025 年 3 月季度的估計是稅率將處於低至中等水平。

Other income and expense for December quarter came in at $11 million in income compared with $13 million in income in September quarter.

12 月季度的其他收入和支出為 1,100 萬美元，而 9 月季度的收入為 1,300 萬美元。

The slight fluctuation in the OI&E was due to lower interest income which was somewhat offset by lower foreign exchange losses and a little bit of gain in equity investments.

營業收入和利潤的輕微波動是由於利息收入減少，但外匯損失減少和股權投資的小幅收益在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

OI&E need will continue to be subject to market related fluctuations that will cause some level of volatility quarter to quarter.

OI&E 需求將持續受到市場相關波動的影響，進而導致季度間出現一定程度的波動。

And as we sit here today, I do believe OI&E will have a slight negative bias in the March quarter.

今天，我確實相信 OI&E 在 3 月季度將出現輕微的負面偏差。

On the capital return side of the things, we allocated approximately $650 million to open market share repurchases and we paid $298 million in dividends in the December quarter.

在資本回報方面，我們分配了約 6.5 億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在 12 月季度支付了 2.98 億美元的股息。

For the 2024 calendar year, we returned 98% of free cash flow totaling $4 billion which was at the high end of our long term capital return plans of 75% to 100% of free cash flow.

就 2024 日曆年而言，我們返還了 98% 的自由現金流，總額達到 40 億美元，這處於我們長期資本回報計劃（75% 至 100% 的自由現金流）的最高水平。

For the December quarter, diluted earnings per share came in at $0.91. The diluted share count was roughly 1.29 billion shares which was a reduction from the September quarter.

12 月季度，每股攤薄收益為 0.91 美元。稀釋後股數約 12.9 億股，較 9 月季度減少。

During 2024, we repurchased nearly 34 million shares through our share buyback program, and we have $9.2 billion remaining on our board authorized share repurchase plan.

2024 年，我們透過股票回購計畫回購了近 3,400 萬股，董事會授權的股票回購計畫剩餘 92 億美元。

Let me pivot to the balance sheet.

讓我轉到資產負債表。

Our cash and short term investments totaled $5.7 billion at the end of the December quarter, down from $6.1 billion at the end of the September quarter.

截至 12 月季度末，我們的現金和短期投資總額為 57 億美元，低於 9 月季度末的 61 億美元。

The main driver of the cash decrease was obviously our capital return activity.

現金減少的主要驅動因素顯然是我們的資本回報活動。

Days sales outstanding was 69 days in the December quarter, an increase from 64 days in the September quarter.

12 月季度的應收帳款週轉天數為 69 天，高於 9 月季度的 64 天。

Inventory at the December quarter end totaled $4.4 billion, a slight increase from the September quarter as we prepare for higher revenues in the March 2025 quarter.

12 月季度末的庫存總額為 44 億美元，較 9 月季度略有增加，因為我們為 2025 年 3 月季度的更高收入做準備。

Inventory turns were 2.1x, flat from the prior quarter level.

庫存週轉率為 2.1 倍，與上一季持平。

We will continue to manage inventory levels to the best of our ability to align with customer demand.

我們將繼續盡最大努力管理庫存水平，以滿足客戶需求。

We're pleased to announce that we upsized our revolving credit facility from $1.5 billion to $2 billion.

我們很高興地宣布，我們的循環信貸額度從 15 億美元增加到 20 億美元。

Additionally, I just mentioned that we have $500 million of unsecured notes maturing in March this year, which we intend to simply pay off using cash on the balance sheet.

此外，我剛才提到，我們有 5 億美元的無擔保票據將於今年 3 月到期，我們打算使用資產負債表上的現金來償還。

We may choose to refinance this notional amount in the future as we continue to monitor the interest rate environment.

隨著我們繼續監測利率環境，我們可能會在未來選擇對此名目金額進行再融資。

By bolstering our liquidity with the credit facility, we've created some optionality and flexibility here.

透過利用信貸工具增強流動性，我們在此創造了一些可選性和靈活性。

Non-cash expenses for the December quarter included approximately $82 million for equity compensation., $83 million in depreciation and $13 million in amortization.

12 月季度的非現金支出包括約 8,200 萬美元的股權補償、8,300 萬美元的折舊和 1,300 萬美元的攤提。

Capital expenditures in the December quarter were $188 million, up $78 million from the September quarter.

12 月季度的資本支出為 1.88 億美元，較 9 月季度增加 7,800 萬美元。

Spending was mainly centered on lab related investments in the United States and Asia and manufacturing facilities supporting our global strategy to be close to customers development and manufacturing locations.

支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的實驗室相關投資以及支援我們全球策略的製造設施，以便靠近客戶的開發和製造地點。

We ended the December quarter with approximately 18,300 regular full-time employees which is an increase of approximately 600 people from the prior quarter.

截至 12 月季度，我們擁有約 18,300 名常規全職員工，比上一季增加了約 600 人。

Growth was predominantly in field and factory roles to support increased tool installation as well as growing manufacturing activities.

成長主要集中在現場和工廠角色，以支援增加的工具安裝以及不斷增長的製造活動。

Now, let's turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the March 2025 quarter.

現在，讓我們來看看 2025 年 3 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。

We're expecting revenue of $4.65 billion plus or minus $300 million.

我們預計營收為 46.5 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元。

Gross margin of 48% plus or minus 1% point.

毛利率為48%，上下浮動1%。

We anticipate roughly consistent levels of customer concentration.

我們預期客戶集中度水準將大致保持一致。

Operating margin of 32%, plus or minus 1% point.

營業利益率為32%，正負1個百分點。

This guidance accounts for the normal seasonal increase in operating expenses that we always see at the beginning of the calendar year.

該指引考慮了我們在日曆年初總是看到的正常的季節性營運費用成長。

And finally, earnings per share of $1.00 plus or minus $0.10 based on a share count of approximately 1.29 billion shares.

最後，基於約 12.9 億股的股份數量，每股收益為 1.00 美元，上下浮動 0.10 美元。

I would mention that as we look into 2025, we plan to continue to deliver incremental leverage to the bottom line.

我想說的是，展望 2025 年，我們計劃繼續為獲利提供增量槓桿。

At the same time, we will be growing R&D and continuing to grow investment in a digital transformation project that we initially launched in 2023.

同時，我們將加強研發力度，並持續增加對我們於 2023 年首次啟動的數位轉型專案的投資。

Each of these investments is expected to enable future financial benefits to the P&L that we plan to show you in February.

預計每項投資都將為我們計劃在二月向您展示的損益表帶來未來的財務收益。

So let me wrap up.

讓我來總結一下。

We executed well in calendar 2024.

我們在 2024 年表現良好。

We delivered 11% growth in CSBG and a 160 basis point improvement in operating margin both of which exceeded our expectations from the beginning of last year.

我們的 CSBG 成長了 11%，營業利潤率提高了 160 個基點，這兩項都超出了我們去年年初的預期。

We've made key investments in our product portfolio to drive served available market and share opportunity and we've grown the global infrastructure to collaborate and deliver innovative solutions for our customers.

我們對產品組合進行了重點投資，以推動服務現有市場和分享機會，我們已經發展了全球基礎設施，以便為我們的客戶合作並提供創新解決方案。

We also grew spending in that digital transformation program.

我們也增加了該數位轉型項目上的支出。

We look forward to sharing more details on the strength of our product portfolio as well as an updated long term financial model at our Investor Day in New York City on February 19th We hope to see you there operator that concludes our prepared remarks, Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

我們期待在2 月19 日於紐約舉行的投資者日上分享更多有關我們產品組合實力以及更新的長期財務模型的詳細信息，我們希望在那裡見到您，結束我們準備好的發言，蒂姆和我現在我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Tim Arcuri, UBS.

瑞銀的蒂姆·阿庫裡（Tim Arcuri）。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Doug, can you speak about the gross margin?

道格，你能談談毛利率嗎？

The guidance is pretty good.

指導非常好。

And you talked about Malaysia now is turning to a tailwind.

您剛才談到馬來西亞現在正順風順水。

And I know that the China mix is basically reset.

我知道，中國市場格局已基本重塑。

So how to think about the puts and takes for gross margin as you move March and through the rest of the year?

那麼，從三月到今年剩餘時間，您該如何考慮毛利率的利弊呢？

Yeah, Tim, I think we're going to be in a pretty tight range kind of where we've been in the last quarter, plus or minus a little bit.

是的，蒂姆，我認為我們將處於相當狹窄的範圍內，就像上個季度的情況一樣，有一點點增減。

And the puts and takes, as you know, because we've talked about this in the past, you're going to continue to see some headwinds from customer concentration.

如您所知，我們過去曾談論過這個問題，您將繼續看到來自客戶集中度的一些阻力。

I think there's more headwind as we go through the year, most likely offset to a certain extent by that Asia operation strategy.

我認為，我們今年面臨的阻力會更大，但亞洲營運策略很可能會在一定程度上抵消這種阻力。

So those are the things to think about.

這些都是值得思考的事。

I wouldn't run away from where we are right now, though, in fact, maybe trim a little just a little tiny bit as we go through the year.

不過，我不會逃避我們現在所處的位置，事實上，也許隨著時間的流逝，我們會稍微調整一下。

Got it.

知道了。

And then can you give any color?

然後你能給出任何顏色嗎？

I know you're saying that WFE is going to be up maybe $3 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion year-over-year.

我知道您說的是 WFE 的年增長率可能會達到 30 億美元、40 億美元、50 億美元。

But can you provide any color by end market?

但是您能根據終端市場提供任何顏色嗎？

I know -- and I've asked you this before, but one of your peers is talking about NAND basically doubling this year.

我知道 - 我之前也問過你這個問題，但是你的一位同事說 NAND 今年基本上會翻一番。

So can you give any color there?

那你能給出任何顏色嗎？

And do you think that it is possible that it doubles this year?

您認為今年有可能翻倍嗎？

Yeah, Tim, maybe I'll unpack it just a little bit of color.

是的，提姆，也許我會解開一點顏色。

We're not going to give specific details.

我們不會透露具體細節。

But NAND will be up this year.

但今年NAND將會上漲。

I don't know if it's going to double necessarily.

我不知道它是否必定會翻倍。

Understand also though that NAND spending, there will be a little bit of NAND spending that will occur in China with a customer we can't sell to.

不過也要明白，在 NAND 支出方面，會有一小部分支出發生在中國，因為我們無法向其銷售產品。

So that may be a little different from the period you're asking about.

所以這可能與您所詢問的時期有些不同。

I think leading edge foundry is going to be pretty strong this year.

我認為今年領先的代工將會非常強勁。

I think that's pretty well understood.

我認為這很好理解。

And DRAM will be, plus or minus, coming off a very strong year last year.

無論好壞，DRAM 去年的表現都非常強勁。

I think it will continue to be pretty strong this year.

我認為今年它的勢頭仍將十分強勁。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks Tim.

謝謝蒂姆。

Krish Sankar, Cowen and Company.

克里什桑卡爾 (Krish Sankar)，考恩公司 (Cowen and Company)。

Yeah, hi.

是的，你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First one that I had for you is kind of a on China.

我要問的第一個問題與中國有關。

What is kind of your visibility in terms of lead times?

就交貨時間而言，您的預期如何？

And also, can you help us quantify the impact of these recent China export controls for Lam in calendar '25?

另外，您能否幫我們量化近期中國出口管制對林鄭月娥在 25 年的影響？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續問題。

Yeah, Krish, our lead times really haven't changed too much.

是的，克里什，我們的交貨時間確實沒有太大變化。

And I don't know if you're asking specific to China, but China is no different than the rest of the world.

我不知道您是否具體問的是中國的情況，但中國與世界其他國家沒有什麼不同。

Geographically, lead times are pretty much the same.

從地理位置來看，交貨時間幾乎相同。

And yes, obviously, in early December, there were some new regulations that came out restricting a handful of customers that certainly impacted us.

是的，顯然，12 月初出台了一些新規定，限制了少數客戶，這肯定對我們產生了影響。

The forecast we had from that group of customers was probably, I don't know, $700 million or so that obviously we won't be able to ship to those customers.

我們從那組客戶那裡得到的預測可能是，我不知道，7 億美元左右，顯然我們無法出貨給這些客戶。

And that revenue footprint when we were looking at the forecast originally would have been a little bit second half weighted in 2025.

當我們最初查看預測時，收入足跡應該會稍微偏向 2025 年下半年。

So that's the way to think about it.

這就是思考這個問題的方法。

I don't know that that's all that different than what you've heard from our peers, Krish.

我不知道這和你從我們的同行克里什那裡聽到的有什麼不同。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful for quantifying that, Doug.

道格，這對於量化這一點非常有幫助。

And then just a quick follow-up.

然後只是快速的跟進。

You spoke about your WFE growing maybe 4 percent, 5 percent this year on a year-over-year basis.

您剛才提到，今年您的 WFE 年成長可能為 4% 到 5%。

How do you think about the split between systems and CSBG in March and how that evolves through the rest of the year?

您如何看待 3 月系統與 CSBG 之間的分裂以及今年剩餘時間內的分裂情況？

You know, I'm not going to get into the detail of kind of how much is CSBG and how much is systems.

你知道，我不會詳細討論 CSBG 是多少、系統是多少。

I would tell you that there's some headwinds in CSBG related to the Reliant grouping, right?

我想告訴你，CSBG 中存在一些與 Reliant 集團相關的阻力，對嗎？

I think that's pretty well understood.

我認為這很好理解。

There's not a huge amount of spending in mature node outside of China.

在中國以外的成熟節點上，並沒有大量的支出。

And then within China, we've got a handful of customers that, like I said, are now restricted.

然後在中國，我們有少數客戶，正如我所說，現在受到限制。

Offset, though, it's going to be a strong year for upgrades, and we've been talking about that, right?

不過，對於 Offset 來說，今年將是升級強勁的一年，我們一直在談論這個，對嗎？

We believe NAND spending is going to be largely upgrade related, and that's going to benefit the upgrade product line within CSBG.

我們相信 NAND 支出將主要與升級相關，這將有利於 CSBG 內的升級產品線。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Krish.

是的，謝謝 Krish。

CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for taking the question, I guess, to maybe piggyback on that question.

感謝您提出這個問題，我想，也許是為了順便回答這個問題。

Could you speak to if you had to rank order by product or upgrade or whatnot, how we should be thinking about what are the biggest kind of incremental drivers for you.

您能否談談，如果必須按產品或升級或諸如此類的順序排列，我們應該如何考慮哪些是您最大的增量驅動因素。

I think you talked about gate-all-around and advanced package and growing an incremental $1 billion in calendar '25.

我想您談到了環柵技術和先進封裝，以及在 25 年實現 10 億美元的增量成長。

Could you kind of add to that in terms of NAND upgrades, moly?

您能否就 NAND 升級方面補充一些內容，moly？

Anything else that is relevant that we should be thinking about in '25?

我們在 25 年還應該考慮哪些相關的事情？

Yeah, CJ., let me start with that one.

是的，CJ，讓我從這個開始。

I think that from perspective of kind of the most impactful change year-on-year, I think for us, it's NAND.

我認為，從同比來看，最具影響力的變化是 NAND。

It's the -- it's NAND starting to come back.

這是——這是 NAND 開始回歸。

And again, the very strong position we have within every dollar spent on a NAND upgrade.

而且，我們在 NAND 升級上花費的每一美元都佔有非常強的地位。

And that's kind of across the board, the etch tools and such that need to be upgraded.

這是一種全面的升級，蝕刻工具等都需要升級。

But at the same time, on the last call, I mentioned this point that about 2/3 of the bits are still being manufactured on nodes below 200 layers.

但同時，在上次電話會議上，我提到了這一點，大約 2/3 的位元仍然是在 200 層以下的節點上製造的。

And what happens as you move above 200 layers is not only do you have to upgrade the existing tools, but you have to start adding additional tools to deal with the complexity of that transition.

當您超過 200 層時，您不僅需要升級現有的工具，還必須開始添加其他工具來應對這種轉變的複雜性。

And so that's why we talk about like the new carbon gap fill tool, which is key to multi-tier stacking, which you start to see in the 200, 300 layer generations.

這就是我們談論新的碳間隙填充工具的原因，它是多層堆疊的關鍵，您會在 200 層、300 層代中看到它。

And as you get to 300 layers and beyond, you start seeing new tools get added like moly, that transition.

當你達到 300 層甚至更多時，你會開始看到像 moly 這樣的新工具被添加，這就是那種轉變。

So it depends on which customer and exactly which transitions they're switching to but NAND from both an upgrade and new tool shipment is probably our largest year-on-year difference.

因此，這取決於哪個客戶以及他們轉向的特定轉型，但升級和新工具出貨量的 NAND 可能是我們最大的同比差異。

But there's no doubt that our strong position in advanced packaging and the strength that Doug alluded to within leading-edge foundry and what that means for advanced packaging continues to show growth there.

但毫無疑問，我們在先進封裝領域的強勢地位以及Doug提到的在前沿代工領域的實力，以及這對先進封裝的意義，將繼續在那裡顯示出增長。

And so I feel like, as I said, there's a nice setup here where many of the areas we've been investing in, really are starting to come together this year.

所以我覺得，正如我所說的，這裡有一個很好的設置，我們一直投資的許多領域今年確實開始走到一起。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

I guess, as a follow-up, and Doug, I'm not sure you're going to want to answer this.

我想，作為後續問題，道格，我不確定您是否願意回答這個問題。

But if I were to annualize implied shipments for March, that would suggest pretty meaningful top line growth year-on-year relative to the WFE growth that you outlined.

但如果我將 3 月份的隱含出貨量按年化計算，這將表明相對於您所概述的 WFE 增長，營收同比增長相當顯著。

So should we be thinking about revenues lower in the second half?

那我們是否應該考慮下半年收入下降呢？

Or are you really highlighting tremendous outperformance in 2025?

還是您真的在強調 2025 年的巨大優異表現？

Yeah.

是的。

I don't know, CJ., I'm not going to answer that question.

我不知道，CJ，我不會回答這個問題。

So you kind of answered your own question.

所以你已經回答了你自己的問題。

I'm not going to get into giving you a quarter-by-quarter guidance.

我不會向你提供逐季度的指導。

Listen, WFE is going to grow a little bit.

聽著，WFE 將會稍微成長一點。

We're going to outperform WFE.

我們將會超越 WFE。

We're confident about making those statements.

我們有信心做出這些聲明。

We've been making it for a little bit of time now.

我們已經做這件事有一段時間了。

The rest of it will depend on profile of spending and so forth.

其餘部分將取決於支出狀況等等。

I don't know if you just annualize March, if that's the right way to look at it.

我不知道您是否只是將三月按年化，這是否是正確的看法。

Like I said, we're going to guide 1 quarter at a time.

就像我說的，我們將一次指導一個季度。

I don't know.

我不知道。

You got to do a little of your own pencil work.

你必須自己做一些鉛筆工作。

Don't lose sight on what I did say, though, about the second half weighting of some of that China customer that all of a sudden, we can't ship to any longer, that would have been a little bit second half weighted.

不過，不要忽視我說過的話，關於一些中國客戶下半年的權重，我們突然無法再向他們發貨，這會對下半年的權重產生一點影響。

So comprehend that as you build your model for the year.

因此，在建立年度模型時，請理解這一點。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks CJ.

謝謝 CJ。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my question advanced packaging and high bandwidth memory.

感謝您回答我的問題，先進封裝和高頻寬記憶體。

I know you guys started last year with a view that your advanced packaging business would do about $700 million, $800 million in revenues on the April earnings call.

我知道你們去年就預計先進封裝業務在 4 月財報電話會議上能實現約 7 億美元、8 億美元的收入。

You upped that to $1 billion, and then that number was further up to over $1 billion.

你將其提高到 10 億美元，然後這個數字又上升到 10 億美元以上。

Can you guys just true us up, what was the actual revenue you drove in calendar 2024 on advanced packaging?

你們能否告訴我們，2024 年先進封裝的實際收入是多少？

And then with this demand growth for HBM targeted to grow 50%, 70% per year over the next couple of years.

隨著 HBM 需求的成長，未來幾年 HBM 的目標成長率為 50% 到 70%。

The move from 8 high to 12 high.

從 8 高點移動到 12 高點。

You've got the move in advanced packaging from 2.5D to 3D SOIC, like how should we think about your advanced packaging/HBM growth profile for this year?

先進封裝已從 2.5D 轉向 3D SOIC，我們應該如何看待今年先進封裝/HBM 的成長情況？

And in general, over the next few years, sort of how do we think about the mid- to longer-term growth profile?

整體來說，未來幾年，我們如何看待中長期成長前景？

Yeah, Harlan, maybe I'll chime in and then let Tim add on.

是的，哈蘭，也許我會加入討論，然後讓提姆補充。

Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to give you a precise number, but in 2024, we finished above $1 billion.

是的，我的意思是，我不會給你一個精確的數字，但在 2024 年，我們的收入將超過 10 億美元。

I don't think that surprises you.

我想這並不會讓你感到驚訝。

And I'm not going to give you a precise number for this year, but it is certainly going to grow again in 2025, and it's being driven by all those things you talked about, right, HBM3 going to 3D to potentially going to 4 at the end of the year, 8 going to 12, going to 16 die.

我不會給你今年的精確數字，但它肯定會在 2025 年再次增長，這是由你談到的所有因素推動的，對吧，HBM3 轉向 3D，甚至可能轉向 4到年底，將會有8人死亡，12 人死亡，16 人死亡。

We do all that, TSV.

我們做到了這一切，TSV。

So we're set up to do really well.

所以我們已經做好了很好的準備。

We're pretty excited about it.

我們對此感到非常興奮。

I don't know, Tim, if you want to.

我不知道，提姆，如果你想知道的話。

No.

不。

I think, Harlan, the only thing I'd add is that we've been saying for a while that, and I think you've been hearing it in the marketplace, advanced packaging and getting the yield and productivity right on these processes isn't easy.

我認為，Harlan，我唯一要補充的是，我們已經說了一段時間了，我想你在市場上也聽過，先進封裝以及在這些工藝上獲得正確的良率和生產力並不是不容易。

And so this is where Lam has a critical process supplier with expertise in things like copper plating and etching.

因此，Lam 擁有關鍵製程供應商，該供應商在鍍銅和蝕刻方面擁有專業知識。

We're delivering value there.

我們正在那裡創造價值。

So we feel very good about our positions.

因此，我們對自己的立場感到非常滿意。

And we're going to continue to grow with that market and do very well.

我們將繼續與該市場共同成長，並取得優異成績。

So I can't put an exact number on it, but again, we did indicate we will grow again this year.

所以我無法給出一個確切的數字，但我們確實表示今年我們將再次成長。

And I think that's about all we can say.

我想這就是我們能說的全部了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then for Doug, this is the third, fourth consecutive quarter where your gross margins are coming in better than expected, continued strength on the guidance for the March quarter, right?

然後對 Doug 來說，這是連續第三個、第四個季度，你們的毛利率好於預期，繼續維持 3 月季度的預期，對嗎？

The overall sustainability and growth of our gross margins has been very, very solid.

我們的毛利率整體可持續性和成長非常非常穩健。

I've actually been surprised at how rapidly you've ramped your Malaysia manufacturing facility, low-cost geography, you've got strategically aligned supplier base in this region.

我實際上對你們在馬來西亞的製造工廠、低成本地理位置以及在該地區戰略性地協調的供應商基地的擴張速度感到驚訝。

At the same time, you guys have also, I think, consolidated a significant part of the higher cost manufacturing base.

同時，我認為你們也鞏固了相當一部分高成本製造基地。

So is it fair to assume that on incremental revenue growth going forward, most of -- this is flowing through Malaysia and so better incremental gross margin flow through?

那麼，是否可以公平地假設，未來的增量收入成長中，大部分都流經馬來西亞，從而帶來更好的增量毛利率？

And maybe any way to help us kind of quantify that?

也許有什麼方法可以幫助我們量化這一點？

Yeah, I'm not going to quantify it.

是的，我不會量化它。

I mean, I just gave you a number, right, that we've delivered over 100 basis points from the strategy already.

我的意思是，我剛剛給了你一個數字，對吧，我們已經從該策略中獲得了超過 100 個基點。

There's a little bit more to go for sure.

肯定還有更多路要走。

Don't lose sight of the fact, though, that we're going to have the headwind from customer mix that we've been talking about for a while.

不過，不要忽視這樣一個事實，我們將面臨我們一段時間以來一直在談論的客戶組合所帶來的阻力。

So I'm trying to telegraph that to you as well.

所以我也想把這一點傳達給你。

I guess, yes, listen, we're pretty pleased with our performance on gross margin.

是的，聽著，我們對我們的毛利率表現非常滿意。

Frankly, this was all done by us, right?

說實話，這都是我們做的，對吧？

This was a proactive strategy, things turned down in early '23.

這是一個積極主動的策略，但情況在 23 年初出現了轉折。

We jumped on the horse and started riding down the trail.

我們跳上馬，開始沿著小路騎行。

And frankly, the guys and gals in our global operations organization have done a phenomenal job here, right?

坦白說，我們全球營運組織中的各位員工在這裡做出了非凡的工作，對吧？

So super happy with what's going on.

我對於正在發生的事感到非常高興。

We're going to keep driving this but don't run away with it too much right now because like I said, we've got that customer concentration headwind that we got to deal with here.

我們將繼續推動這一進程，但現在不要過度疏忽，因為就像我說的，我們面臨著必須處理的客戶集中度逆風問題。

And Harlan, the only thing I would add is that I think that you should take away from this that Lam is committed to make investments to see a sustainable step-up in performance.

哈蘭，我唯一想補充的是，我認為你應該明白，林氏致力於透過投資來實現業績的可持續提升。

And that's what we did.

我們也確實這麼做了。

Doug, for many quarters, was talking about how Malaysia was a headwind.

道格在很多方面都在談論馬來西亞如何成為逆風。

That investment we're making as we ramped it and it wasn't yet up and going.

我們正在加大投資，但目前投資尚未啟動。

And now you're seeing a little bit of the same thing with the investment we keep talking about digital transformation.

現在，您在我們一直在談論的數位轉型投資中看到了一些相同的情況。

There's going to be a period here where we're investing.

我們將會進入一個投資時期。

But long term, we have a view that this company and the semiconductor industry in general are going to be bigger, and we want to have fundamental improvements in our operations and in our cost structure.

但從長遠來看，我們認為這家公司和整個半導體產業將會變得更大，我們希望從根本上改善我們的營運和成本結構。

And so I think Malaysia is a great sign of what we've done.

所以我認為馬來西亞是我們所做努力的一個很好的體現。

And I think the digital transformation is something that's still yet to come, and it just shows that we have a very long-term commitment to improving the financials of this company.

我認為數位轉型尚未到來，這表明我們長期致力於改善公司的財務狀況。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Thanks Doug.

謝謝道格。

Thanks Harlan.

謝謝哈蘭。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Thank you so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您回答這個問題。

I had two as well.

我也有兩個。

The first one, the outperformance relative to WFE you guys expect to deliver this year.

第一個問題，你們預期今年相對於 WFE 的表現會更優異。

Is that mostly a function of dep and etch growing as a percentage of the overall WFE market?

這是否主要是由於 Dep 和 Et 在整個 WFE 市場中所佔的百分比不斷增長？

Or is it that plus you guys winning share in -- within dep and etch.

或者是加上你們在 dep 和 etch 贏得的份額。

And if it's both on the latter, which applications do you guys have the highest expectations from a market share gain perspective?

如果是後者，那麼從市佔率成長的角度來看，你們對哪些應用程式抱持最高的期望？

Well, it is both.

嗯，兩者皆有。

But as we've described in the past that often, the way we look at market share gains is the wins of new applications, some of which didn't exist before.

但正如我們過去經常描述的那樣，我們看待市場份額成長的方式是新應用程式的勝利，其中一些以前並不存在。

And so it's not always a head-to-head fight that results and one winner for an application.

因此，申請並不總是透過面對面的競爭而最終產生勝利者。

I gave an example of that with the carbon gas fill, new application that gets created simply because of the growing complexity of tier stacking in NAND.

我舉了碳氣填充的一個例子，新的應用的產生只是因為 NAND 中層堆疊的複雜性不斷增加。

Ultimately, that results in share gain as measured by our share of our SAM and also our share of the market itself.

最終，這將帶來份額成長，以我們的 SAM 份額以及我們的市場份額來衡量。

So there are a number of those.

因此，有很多這樣的情況。

I think there are pure market share wins.

我認為這是純粹的市場佔有率勝利。

We talked about, obviously, our Aether announcement today. where that win is created through SAM expansion where we move into markets where we previously haven't competed before and do become the tool of record based on superior technology and product performance.

顯然，我們今天討論了 Aether 公告。這項勝利是透過 SAM 擴展而取得的，我們進入了之前從未競爭過的市場，並憑藉卓越的技術和產品性能成為記錄工具。

And so it's hard -- it really is a makeup of many different things as to why we think we outperform, but it's really driven by what you said at the beginning.

所以這很難——我們認為我們表現優異的原因實際上是由很多不同因素構成的，但實際上是由你一開始所說的事情驅動的。

Etch and deposition are becoming incredibly more important to the building of these complex structures, whether it's gate-all-around, it's the advanced packaging, 3D structures.

蝕刻和沈積對於這些複雜結構的建造變得越來越重要，無論是環柵、先進封裝或 3D 結構。

It's the new architectures in DRAM.

這是 DRAM 中的新架構。

It's the multi-tier stacking and NAND.

它是多層堆疊和 NAND。

All of those are accomplished through new, very complex etch and dep processes that Lam is leading in.

所有這些都是透過 Lam 所引領的全新、非常複雜的蝕刻和沈積製程實現的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And then for CSBG, maybe for Doug, I know you're not going to guide the full year.

然後對於 CSBG，也許對於 Doug 來說，我知道你不會指導全年。

The spares part of the business, upgrade part of the business.

備件部分業務，升級部分業務。

Historically, it's been obviously correlated with your chamber account, which continues to grow.

從歷史上看，它顯然與您的商會帳戶相關，而且該帳戶仍在不斷增長。

Is there a way to think about Reliance in '25 on a year-over-year basis?

有沒有辦法以同比的方式回顧 25 年 Reliance 的情況？

Yeah, Reliance is probably going to be down year-over-year, Toshiya, as I think about puts and takes, and that's -- I don't think that's surprising, right?

是的，Toshiya，當我考慮收益和利弊時，Reliance 的業績可能會比去年同期下降，我認為這並不奇怪，對吧？

If you look at what's going on in specialty node investment, mature node investment in areas like analog, microcontrollers, there's not a lot of spending occurring outside of China.

如果你觀察一下專業節點投資、模擬、微控制器等領域的成熟節點投資的情況，你會發現中國以外的支出不多。

And then I think China WFE is going to be softer year-over-year, '24 to '25, and we lost a handful of customers as well.

然後我認為24年至25年中國WFE的銷量年比會比較疲軟，我們也失去了一些客戶。

So that will contribute to all of that there relative to Reliant.

所以這將對 Reliant 的所有方面做出貢獻。

Offsetting that, though, I think it's going to be a good upgrade year, right?

不過，與此形成鮮明對比的是，我認為這將是一個很好的升級年，對嗎？

We've been talking about that such that right now, if I was giving you a little bit of color to think about CSBG, we're probably flattish, again, plus or minus.

我們一直在談論這個問題，現在，如果我給你一點關於 CSBG 的信息，我們可能會持平，再次，正或負。

And we'll keep giving you updates as we go through the year as things change.

隨著情況的變化，我們將繼續向您提供今年的更新資訊。

Yeah.

是的。

And Toshiya, the only thing I'd add on CSBG is obviously, we recognize that each of the different components of CSBG sort of move around.

Toshiya，關於 CSBG 我唯一要補充的是，顯然我們認識到 CSBG 的每個不同組件都會移動。

So maybe it's helpful to think about the areas that ultimately are long-term future growers.

因此，思考最終將成為長期未來成長點的領域也許會有所幫助。

And the one we've highlighted recently that I talked about today is how you use equipment intelligence and cobots and other things to disrupt the way in which service is done inside the fab and therefore, capture some of that value while still delivering a lot of productivity to the customer.

我今天談到的最近重點提到的一點是，如何使用設備智慧、協作機器人和其他東西來顛覆工廠內部的服務方式，從而獲取部分價值，同時仍提供大量為客戶提供高效生產力。

So I think that's an area that still is less tapped, I would say, than our spares and upgrades and Reliant business that we talked about so much.

因此，我認為，與我們經常談論的備件、升級和 Reliant 業務相比，這個領域尚未得到充分開發。

And so there's still a lot of opportunity to come there as we start to roll out these new products onto new platforms and into fabs.

因此，當我們開始將這些新產品推廣到新平台和晶圓廠時，仍然有很多機會。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you Tosh.

謝謝你，托什。

Srini Pajjuri, Raymond James.

Srini Pajjuri，雷蒙德‧詹姆斯。

Thank you, Doug, I just want to clarify the previous answer you gave on CSBG.

謝謝你，Doug，我只是想澄清你之前關於 CSBG 的回答。

So when you say flattish, are we talking calendar '24 being flattish?

所以當您說持平時，我們是在說 24 年日曆持平嗎？

Or is that -- I mean, sorry, calendar '25 being flattish?

或說 — — 抱歉，我的意思是 25 年曆是平的？

Or is it fiscal or are you talking sequentially for the next few quarters, I guess?

或者是財政問題，或者你是在連續談論接下來幾季的問題，我猜？

Calendar '25.

日曆 ‘25。

I never talk about fiscal year, so almost never.

我從不談論財政年度，所以幾乎從來沒有。

It's year-over-year.

這是逐年增加的。

You should think of CSBG in total as flattish.

您應該認為 CSBG 總體上是平坦的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then a question maybe for Tim, is on moly B, I know you said several hundred million dollars of contribution.

然後也許有一個問題要問提姆，關於鉬 B，我知道你說過幾億美元的捐款。

I'm just trying to reconcile what we are hearing from your customers, Tim.

提姆，我只是想理清我們從你的客戶那裡聽到的事情。

Obviously, demand is not great and the utilization levels are lower and some customers are actually lowering their factory loadings.

顯然，需求並不大，利用率較低，一些客戶實際上正在降低工廠負載。

So maybe you can help us, how broad-based of a transition are you seeing?

所以也許您可以幫助我們，您看到的轉變有多廣泛？

Is it like a handful of customers?

是不是像少數顧客一樣？

I know there are only a handful of customers, but yes.

我知道顧客很少，但是確實如此。

If you could give us some additional color as to how do you feel about the sustainability of moly B as we go through the year, that will be helpful.

如果您能向我們提供一些關於您對今年鉬 B 可持續性的看法的額外信息，這將會很有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

I think it's the sustainability.

我認為這是可持續性。

I mean, we've talked about the fact that, like I mentioned on the last call, the large number of the industry bits.

我的意思是，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，就像我在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，行業比特的數量非常大。

We said 2/3 of the bits still being manufactured under 200 layers.

我們說2/3的鑽頭仍在200層以下製造。

Those are all nodes, those are all bits being manufactured without moly.

這些都是節點，這些都是不使用鉬製造的位元。

And so over time, and we've said this is a multi, multiyear transition.

隨著時間的推移，我們說過這是一個多年的過渡期。

As you start to move this million-plus wafer starts per month capacity that exists towards higher layer counts.

當您開始將每月超過一百萬片晶圓的產能轉向更高的層數。

Now different customers have different intercept points as to when moly comes in, whether it's exactly what layer count.

現在，不同的客戶對於鉬的進入時間、確切的層數等都有不同的攔截點。

I can't go into that detail customer by customer.

我無法向每個客戶詳細地介紹這一點。

But what it says is we're going to see moly coming in as each customer reaches that transition point.

但它表明，當每個客戶達到那個轉變點時，我們將看到鉬的進入。

Now how do we reconcile the fact that customers are spending to go to higher layer counts and introduce new technologies like moly and carbon gap fill with their statements as well that they might be wanting to cut spending.

現在，我們如何調和這樣的事實：客戶正在花錢購買更高層數的產品，並引入鉬和碳間隙填充等新技術，同時他們也表示可能想要削減開支。

Well, first of all, I mean, upgrades are a very efficient way to move forward the technology.

嗯，首先，我的意思是，升級是推動技術進步的一種非常有效的方式。

And so that's a reduced WFE means by which to get bits to higher layer counts.

這是一種減少 WFE 的方法，透過它可以將位元傳送到更高的層數。

And frankly, higher layer counts result in lower bit cost for manufacturing and higher performance.

坦白說，層數越高，製造成本越低，效能越高。

And for certain end applications, you need higher performance to meet those requirements.

對於某些最終應用，您需要更高的效能來滿足這些要求。

And so I think that this is not a very broad and large upgrade move but it's the early signs, and that's why we're starting to see improvement in our numbers.

因此我認為這不是一個非常廣泛和大規模的升級舉措，但這是早期跡象，這就是為什麼我們開始看到數位改善。

But over the next several years, you'll continue to see moly contribute more and more as the number of wafers at those higher layer counts continues to increase.

但在接下來的幾年裡，隨著更高層數的晶圓數量不斷增加，您將繼續看到鉬的貢獻越來越大。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya 的美國銀行證券。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Doug, just one or two clarifications.

道格，我只想澄清一兩點。

Why will CSBG be flat this year?

為什麼今年CSBG會持平？

And then how should we think about OpEx growth in calendar '25?

那我們該如何看待 25 年的營運支出成長呢？

Yeah, Vivek, it's what I described.

是的，Vivek，這就是我所描述的。

We're coming off a pretty strong year for the Reliant product line.

今年是 Reliant 產品線表現相當強勁的一年。

That's probably going to be less strong next year.

明年這種勢頭可能就不會那麼強勁了。

Offsetting that, I believe, will be the spending on upgrades kind of based on what Tim just told you, right?

我相信，抵消這一增長的將是升級支出，這有點基於蒂姆剛才告訴你的內容，對嗎？

There's an aging set of equipment in NAND.

NAND 中有一組設備已經老化。

There's upgrades other places, too.

其他地方也有升級。

So that's the up and the down, I guess, is the way to think about it, Vivek.

所以，我想，這就是思考這個問題的方式，維維克。

Did that make sense?

這樣有道理嗎？

Yeah. and the OpEx growth, Doug?

是的。以及營運支出的成長，Doug？

Listen, we're going to increase spending this year, right?

聽著，我們今年要增加支出，對嗎？

I talked about we're growing R&D.

我說過我們正在擴大研發。

We're investing in a digital transformation project that's going to deliver future financial benefit.

我們正在投資一個將帶來未來財務效益的數位轉型項目。

But also listen to what I said in the scripted remarks.

但也要聽聽我在演講稿裡說過什麼。

We plan to deliver some on the leverage this year, too, right?

我們計劃今年也要利用一些槓桿，對嗎？

We're going to deliver leverage to the P&L.

我們將為損益表提供槓桿作用。

So revenue should grow faster than OpEx is the way to think about it.

因此，收入的成長速度應該比營運支出的成長速度更快，這是可以理解的。

So last year, Doug, just so OpEx was up mid-teens.

道格，去年，營運支出 (OpEx) 上漲了 15% 左右。

Should we assume a similar kind of OpEx growth given the digital transformation projects?

考慮到數位轉型項目，我們是否應該假設類似的營運支出成長？

Or would it be very different from that run rate?

或者說它與該運行率會有很大差異嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Vivek, I'm going to guide you one quarter at a time.

維韋克，我將一步一步地指導你。

You'll get a little bit of leverage from us this year.

今年你會從我們這裡獲得一點優勢。

So that's as much as I'm going to give you right now.

這就是我現在能給你的全部內容。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Atif Malik, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik) 說：

Hi, thank you for taking my questions.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

First a quick clarification.

首先簡單澄清一下。

That $100 billion WFE number is unrestricted WFE, meaning it includes your expectations, what are your indigenous competitors are going to earn in sales as well?

1000 億美元的 WFE 數字是不受限制的 WFE，這意味著它包括了您的預期，您的本土競爭對手的銷售收入是多少？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Atif, it's all in.

阿蒂夫，一切都已完成。

It's everything, right?

這才是一切，對吧？

There were restricted customers in '24.

'24 年有限制顧客。

There were restricted customers in '25.

'25 年有限制顧客。

We're describing it all in to the best of our ability.

我們正在盡最大努力描述這一切。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Doug, you made a comment that you're expecting similar customer concentration in the March quarter.

然後，道格，您評​​論說，您預計三月季度的客戶集中度會相似。

And I was wondering if you're expecting similar regional concentration as well.

我想知道您是否也預期會出現類似的區域集中現象。

I'm just trying to see if China sales are going to come down again in the March quarter after the drop in the December quarter.

我只是想知道繼去年 12 月季度下滑之後，今年 3 月季度的中國銷售額是否會再次下降。

You got to listen to my euphemisms when I describe stuff.

當我描述事物時，你必須聽聽我的委婉說法。

Customer concentration actually is pretty tied to geographic concentration when I talk about it right now.

當我現在談論客戶集中度時，它實際上與地理集中度密切相關。

So you should expect that to be roughly consistent December to March, roughly.

因此，您應該可以預期，從 12 月到 3 月，這一數字大致保持一致。

I do believe, again, we said this on the last call, again, China concentration for a year will be down versus '24 in '25.

我確實相信，我們在上次電話會議上也說過，2025 年中國市場的集中度將比 2024 年下降。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein research.

史泰西‧拉斯岡 (Stacy Rasgon)，伯恩斯坦研究公司。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Doug, I don't mean to harp on it, but I want to go back to the CSBG outlook, flat.

道格，我並不是想對此喋喋不休，但我想回到 CSBG 的展望，保持平穩。

So just on a run rate basis, you'd be down like $100 million a quarter versus where you ran in December.

因此，僅從運行率來看，與 12 月相比，每季的營運金額將下降 1 億美元。

And I'm just confused given like the NAND strength that's upgrade driven, presumably, a lot of that would be CSBG.

我只是感到困惑，鑑於 NAND 強度的升級驅動，大概其中很多是 CSBG。

So I wasn't aware that -- I mean, Reliant must be like falling like by a huge amount year-over-year for me to just fit that outlook.

所以我不知道——我的意思是，Reliant 的業績肯定同比大幅下滑，我才符合這種看法。

I mean, I'm just trying -- what am I getting wrong?

我的意思是，我只是在嘗試──我做錯了什麼？

Or is there just some conservatism built in there?

或者其中是否存在某種保守主義？

Or like why is just...

或者為什麼只是…

No, there's not conservatism.

不，不存在保守主義。

Reliant is going to be down, right?

Reliant 將會倒閉，對嗎？

We just lost a bunch of customers in China that largely purchase Reliant systems.

我們剛剛失去了一批主要購買 Reliant 系統的中國客戶。

So that's part of what's going on, too.

這也是正在發生的事情的一部分。

Okay.

好的。

So that was the -- like did you have $700 million in calendar '24 in CSBG for Reliant in China that goes away in 2025?

那麼，您是否在 24 年為 Reliant 在中國的 CSBG 投入了 7 億美元，而這些資金將在 2025 年到期？

Was is that big?

那麼大嗎？

Stacy, $700 million was our forecasted revenue for that set of customers, what they would have spent in '25.

史黛西，7 億美元是我們為這群客戶預測的收入，相當於他們在 25 年的支出。

Now they're not spending.

現在他們不再消費了。

And a lot of that would have been Reliant, Stacy.

其中很多都是 Reliant 的，Stacy。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I guess, maybe along those lines, again, to go back to the China mix, I mean, you said customer mix, it sounds like the customer headwinds increase as we go through the year.

我想，也許是沿著這樣的思路，再次回到中國組合的話題，我的意思是，您說的是客戶組合，聽起來，隨著​​時間的推移，客戶阻力在增加。

Did I get that right?

我說得對嗎？

And if that's true, does that imply that China percentage ought to be going down as we go like into the second half?

如果這是真的，這是否意味著進入下半年中國比例應該會下降？

I said the China revenue percentage should be down in '25 versus '24.

我說2025年中國的收入百分比應該比2024年下降。

I'm talking about versus the current run rate because you talked about the customer headwinds sort of increasing.

我說的是與當前運行率相比，因為你談到了客戶阻力在增加。

And it sounds like the rest of the business will grow and you're missing China revenue in the back half.

聽起來其餘業務都會成長，而你們下半年會錯過中國的收入。

So does that percentage go down in the back half versus where you're running now?

那麼，與你現在的情況相比，後半段的比例會下降嗎？

Sounds like that's...

聽起來像是…

I'm not going to guide more than one quarter at a time because stuff changes.

我不會一次指導超過一個季度，因為情況會改變。

Year-over-year, Stacy, though, it's going to go down.

不過，史黛西，與去年同期相比，這個數字將會下降。

Got it.

知道了。

All right guys.

好吧，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

In terms of NAND being the strongest growth business, can you kind of characterize where we are from a NAND WFE basis?

就 NAND 作為最強勁的成長業務而言，您能否從 NAND WFE 的角度描述我們目前的狀況？

And I guess, it's a little surprising because we're seeing these utilization cuts and things like that.

我想，這有點令人驚訝，因為我們看到了利用率的削減和諸如此類的事情。

And I know you had alluded to technology transitions, but just maybe a little bit more color on why NAND is strong at a time when the economic demand seems to be softening?

我知道您曾經提到技術轉型，但您是否能更詳細地解釋一下，為什麼在經濟需求似乎正在減弱的時候，NAND 卻表現強勁？

Yeah.

是的。

Well, I think that, one, we would characterize the NAND spending today very much as technology migration.

嗯，我認為，首先，我們可以將今天的 NAND 支出描述為技術遷移。

And so I think that, as I said, comes into play for different reasons.

所以我認為，正如我所說的，這是出於不同的原因。

One is it does help reduce bit cost and also improve device performance.

一是它確實有助於降低比特成本並提高設備性能。

And so there are customers that are looking to make some changes there on certain lines they have.

所以有些客戶正在考慮對他們現有的某些生產線做出一些改變。

Now when we talk about the growth, we haven't obviously given a number for what NAND WFE will be in 2025, but it's coming off of, as you know, a very low base.

現在，當我們談論成長時，我們顯然還沒有給出 2025 年 NAND WFE 的數字，但如你所知，它的基數非常低。

And if primarily all of the spending this year is on upgrades, again, the strength in Lam, we spoke specifically about that being a strong grower for Lam, our strongest growing segment.

如果今年所有的支出主要用於升級，那麼這就是 Lam 的優勢，我們特別提到，它是我們成長最強勁的部門 Lam 的強勁成長點。

Then we would say that because of our very high capture rate of WFE spent on upgrades.

那麼我們會說，這是因為我們在升級上花費的 WFE 捕獲率非常高。

And so I can't speak to every customer and what they're going to be spending this year.

所以我無法告訴每位客戶他們今年的支出計畫。

But all we can say is that there is still a strong desire to move certain lines forward to higher levels of technology, and that's what we're seeing.

但我們可以說的是，人們仍然強烈渴望將某些生產線推向更高的技術水平，而這正是我們所看到的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, sure.

嘿，當然了。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Yeah, hi.

是的，你好。

Just a quick question the land side.

我只想快速問一下陸方。

Sorry if I somebody asked this question already, I joined late.

抱歉，如果有人已經問過這個問題，我加入晚了。

Nice rebound there.

那裡的反彈很好。

But as you look at the full year, given how much NAND has come down, any thoughts on how much you see NAND growing this year in '25 -- calendar '25?

但當你放眼全年，考慮到 NAND 的下降幅度，你認為今年（25 年曆）NAND 會成長多少？

Yeah, we're not going to give you a number, Vijay.

是的，我們不會給你一個數字，維傑。

It's going to be up, though.

但它還是會上漲。

Yeah, got it.

嗯，明白了。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the -- can you talk to what you're seeing on the Cryo side?

然後——您能談談您在 Cryo 方面看到的情況嗎？

I think you guys have talked about an opportunity with QLC NAND.

我想你們已經談論過 QLC NAND 的機會​​。

How do you see that for '25, I guess?

我想，您對於 25 年有什麼看法？

Yeah.

是的。

I mentioned in my prepared remarks, and we had a release late last year on what we call our Cryo 3.0 technology, which really is a breakthrough in terms of performance for being able to etch very deep, very vertical holes for NAND flash memory.

我在準備好的發言中提到過，我們去年年底發布了所謂的 Cryo 3.0 技術，這項技術在性能方面確實是一個突破，因為它能夠在 NAND 閃存上蝕刻非常深、非常垂直的孔。

And also, that same technology can be used for other devices like DRAM that also need high aspect ratio dielectric etch.

此外，同一技術也可用於其他需要高深寬比電介質蝕刻的設備，如 DRAM。

And so we're very happy with the progress that's been made.

因此，我們對已經取得的進展感到非常高興。

What makes it very attractive is that these cryo -- our cryo technology can also not only be sold on new tools going forward, but also used to upgrade existing systems we have in the install base, which is very attractive for our customers financially.

非常有吸引力的是，這些低溫——我們的低溫技術不僅可以在未來的新工具上銷售，還可以用於升級我們安裝基礎中的現有系統，這對我們的客戶來說在經濟上非常有吸引力。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions.

是的，感謝您回答這些問題。

For the December quarter, the strength that you saw in NAND revenue, I just wanted to clarify, was there anything in there from the Chinese customer that you can no longer ship to?

對於 12 月季度，您看到的 NAND 收入強勁，我只是想澄清一下，是否有來自中國客戶的產品您無法再為其發貨？

I just want to kind of understand the strength that you saw is really the core NAND customer upgrades.

我只是想了解您所看到的實力實際上是核心 NAND 客戶的升級。

No, there's nothing from a Chinese NAND, indigenous Chinese NAND customer.

不，沒有來自中國 NAND、中國本土 NAND 客戶的任何消息。

Nothing.

沒有什麼。

Okay, helpful.

好的，很有幫助。

And as a follow-up, as we just think about like the 2/3 of NAND capacity below 200 layers, I mean, how should we think about like that trajectory exiting this calendar year in terms of that change of mix?

作為後續問題，當我們考慮 200 層以下的 2/3 NAND 容量時，我的意思是，從組合變化的角度來看，我們應該如何看待今年退出的軌跡？

Well, I think that's the question that we've been hearing quite a number of times on the call, which is, can we predict the rate and pace.

嗯，我認為這是我們在電話中聽到過很多次的問題，那就是我們能否預測速率和速度。

I think you have to look -- the one thing we're certain of is over time, more and more of that installed base will continue to be upgraded to higher levels of technology.

我認為你必須看——我們可以確定的一件事是，隨著時間的推移，越來越多的安裝基數將繼續升級到更高的技術水平。

I think you have to look at the state of the NAND market, the requirements of each individual end application and with device requirements it holds.

我認為您必須了解 NAND 市場的狀況、每個終端應用的要求以及它所具有的設備要求。

And that will tell us a little bit more about the rate and pace.

這將告訴我們更多有關速率和速度的信息。

But at this point, we can't really detail that in any way for you right now.

但目前，我們還無法向您詳細說明這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

That's sure.

那當然啦。

Tom O'malley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的湯姆·奧馬利。

Hey, thanks for taking the question guys.

嘿，感謝你們回答這個問題。

Doug, I'll test you with one more NAND one.

道格，我將再用一個 NAND 來測試你。

Forgive me.

對不起。

I know you've gotten a lot here.

我知道你在這裡收穫了很多。

So in terms of the upgrades really coming in strong, I think it's actually very impressive that you're able to guide CSBG kind of flattish for the year.

因此，就真正強勁的升級而言，我認為您能夠指導 CSBG 在今年保持平穩，這實際上非常令人印象深刻。

Just I was under the assumption that Reliant was a bigger portion of that mix of the bucket.

我只是假設 Reliant 在該組合中佔有較大份額。

So to totally offset that is surprising, and I guess, very good.

因此，完全抵消這一點是令人驚訝的，而且我想，非常好。

But when I look back at like the last 3 years with where NAND spend has been kind of like the high single-digit billions, I think people are give or take that.

但當我回顧過去 3 年 NAND 支出高達數十億美元時，我認為人們對此持不同看法。

But you've seen the market struggle and you really haven't seen this take off in terms of spend.

但您已經看到市場陷入困境，而且您確實沒有看到支出方面的起飛。

What's driving this above 200-layer upgrade this year?

今年推動這 200 層以上升級的因素是什麼？

I guess, I'm asking the question a bit differently.

我想，我問的問題有點不同。

Like why the urgency just because the numbers you're describing for this next year need to be pretty robust.

例如為什麼緊迫，只是因為你描述的明年的數字需要非常強勁。

Just want to understand why that's happening so quickly.

只是想了解為什麼這件事發生得這麼快。

It's obviously a really good thing for you.

這對你來說顯然是件好事。

Yeah, Tom, I guess it's really what Tim described.

是的，湯姆，我想這確實正如蒂姆所描述的那樣。

The technology that's out there, 2/3 of it is sub-200 layer.

目前的技術中，2/3 是在 200 層以下。

It needs to get upgraded.

它需要升級。

Listen, it's not like we're back to the races at peak NAND spending, it's nowhere close to that.

聽著，這並不意味著我們已重回 NAND 支出高峰的競爭之中，還遠遠沒有達到那個水平。

But you got enterprise SSDs evolving to need QLC, which needs the capability and structures that are beyond 200 layer, right?

但是企業級 SSD 正在發展到需要 QLC，而這需要超過 200 層的功能和結構，對嗎？

You got to get the circuit under the array.

你必須得到陣列下的電路。

You need to have wafer bonding capability, and these technologies that are sub-200 layer don't enable that.

您需要具備晶圓鍵合能力，而這些低於 200 層的技術無法實現這一點。

That's what's going on.

這就是正在發生的事情。

In addition to what Tim mentioned earlier, right, when you upgrade, you get a lower cost per bit.

除了提姆之前提到的，當你升級時，你會得到更低的每比特成本。

And so there's still economics that make sense there to a certain extent.

因此從某種程度上來說，這在經濟學上仍然是合理的。

And that's largely what we see going on this year.

這就是我們今年看到的基本情況。

I don't know, Tim, if you'd add anything?

我不知道，提姆，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

No, no, I think that's right.

不不不，我認為是這樣。

That makes sense, Tom?

這樣有道理嗎，湯姆？

It does.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

You have a follow-up Tom?

你有後續消息嗎，湯姆？

Yeah.

是的。

I guess, I'll pivot over to the foundry logic side.

我想，我將轉向代工邏輯方面。

Obviously, a smaller percentage of the business.

顯然，該業務比例較小。

We haven't really focused on it much this call.

我們在這次通話中並沒有太在意這個問題。

You're kind of pointing to the NAND business being a leader in your growth outlook for this coming year.

您指出，NAND 業務將成為今年成長前景的領導者。

But just given the CapEx guide that we saw from TSMC, any view of the change in market share dynamics and how that may impact you next year?

但是，根據我們從台積電看到的資本支出指南，您對市場份額動態的變化有何看法，以及這將如何影響明年的發展？

Obviously, the view is that some of the other leaders are losing out to TSMC.

顯然，人們認為其他一些領先者正在輸給台積電。

How does that impact you?

這對你有什麼影響？

You've been asked this question previously, but I wanted to get your update after the print there.

之前有人問過您這個問題，但我想在印刷之後了解您的最新情況。

Yeah, I'll let Tim talk about leading-edge foundry.

是的，我會讓蒂姆來談論前沿的代工技術。

Yeah, Sure.

是的，當然。

No, in fact, we would hate for people to walk away thinking we're back to focused only on NAND.

不，事實上，我們不希望人們認為我們又回到了只專注於 NAND 的狀態。

It's just -- it's been many years we've been waiting for the NAND recovery to start.

只是——我們已經等待 NAND 復甦開始很多年了。

And so we're able to talk about the fact that through these upgrades, that's kind of begun and is showing up in our numbers.

因此，我們可以談論這樣一個事實，透過這些升級，這一趨勢已經開始並體現在我們的數字上。

But the reality is I mentioned the strategy we had to pivot more of our R&D and our new product expansion into DRAM and foundry logic, that is paying off.

但事實是，我提到了我們必須將更多的研發和新產品擴展轉向 DRAM 和代工邏輯的策略，而這項策略正在取得成效。

We gave a number on gate-all-around nodes.

我們給出了環柵節點的數字。

We have a number of tools that play very well into that inflection.

我們有許多工具可以很好地適應這種轉變。

Plus our strength in advanced packaging shows up very prominently in leading-edge foundry logic.

此外，我們在先進封裝方面的優勢在尖端代工邏輯中得到了非常突出的體現。

Since nearly all leading-edge foundry logic right now is driving and being driven by the advanced packaging capabilities.

因為目前幾乎所有前沿的代工邏輯都在推動並受先進封裝能力的驅動。

And so we're participating in that way.

因此，我們以這種方式參與。

So as you see leading-edge foundry logic customers spending, I would say that is -- those are share gain opportunities for Lam at this point.

因此，當您看到領先的代工邏輯客戶支出時，我想說，這些都是 Lam 目前的份額成長機會。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Operator, we're going to take one more call.

接線員，我們將再接聽一通電話。

Brian Chin, Stifel.

布萊恩·欽（Brian Chin），Stifel。

Hi there.

你好呀。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for letting us ask a few questions.

感謝您讓我們提出幾個問題。

For dry resist deposition in development, can you remind us of the SAM or maybe revenue potential per 10,000 wafer start per month?

對於正在開發中的乾光阻沉積，您能否提醒我們每月每 10,000 片晶圓的 SAM 或收入潛力？

And then tied to that, what is the timing and magnitude of your revenue opportunity and this win?

然後與此相關的是，您的收入機會和勝利的時間和規模是什麼？

And where are you with other DRAM players?

您與其他 DRAM 廠商的關係如何？

Listen, we're in good position.

聽著，我們處於有利地位。

We've talked about previously a DTOL position.

我們之前討論過 DTOL 職位。

We've got hardware in everybody's R&D facility.

我們每個人的研發設施都有硬體。

Everybody is looking at this, that's using, I guess, is what I tell you.

每個人都在看這個，我想這就是用途，這就是我告訴你的。

We were super excited about this one because it's a production tool of record decision, right?

我們對此感到非常興奮，因為它是一個記錄決策的生產工具，對嗎？

It's going to ramp.

它將會加速。

It's not going to be huge dollars this year, Brian, but it is going to certainly be generating revenue, but it was a real important milestone for us.

布萊恩，今年的收入不會很多，但肯定會產生收入，但這對我們來說是一個真正重要的里程碑。

Okay, that's great.

好的，太好了。

Maybe for a quick follow-up.

也許是為了快速跟進。

What factor does the introduction of wafer bonding on NAND road maps, I guess, have on your capture rate of NAND spending?

我猜想，在 NAND 路線圖上引入晶圓鍵結對 NAND 支出的捕獲率有何影響？

In an upgrade, I mean, primarily, we do a lot of things mostly related to the stack is what we've been talking about.

在升級中，我的意思是，我們主要做了很多與堆疊相關的事情，這就是我們一直在談論的。

There are other elements of our, say, certain tools that can go into and play in the wafer bonding space, but we don't do a wafer bonding itself.

我們的其他元素，比如說，某些工具可以進入晶圓鍵合領域並發揮作用，但我們本身並沒有進行晶圓鍵合。

But I'd say it's a minimal impact.

但我想說影響非常小。

I mean, our capture rate of an upgrade cycle has still been very high.

我的意思是，我們的升級週期捕獲率仍然很高。

And that's primarily -- as you stack to -- we talked about carbon gap fill, we talked about the need to upgrade other tools to do higher aspect ratio etches, et cetera.

這主要是——當您堆疊時——我們討論了碳間隙填充，討論了升級其他工具以進行更高縱橫比蝕刻的必要性等等。

We haven't even talked about the fact that for many years, we've been selling tools that also help offset stress of higher layer counts.

我們甚至沒有談論這樣一個事實：多年來，我們一直在銷售有助於抵消更高層數壓力的工具。

And so really, the complexity of these devices, now adding wafer bonding as well, it opens up a lot of opportunities for a critical process supplier like Lam participating.

因此，這些設備的複雜性，現在又增加了晶圓鍵合，這為像Lam這樣的關鍵製程供應商的參與開闢了許多機會。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Thank you, Brian.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

With that, operator, we're going to wrap the call up.

接線員，我們的通話到此結束。

Listen, Tim and I and the rest of the management team are super excited to see you guys in February 19 in New York at our Investor Day.

聽著，提姆、我和其他管理團隊都很高興能在 2 月 19 日於紐約舉行的投資者日上見到你們。

I hope you are all going to be able to make it.

我希望你們都能成功。

We'll have some interesting new products to talk about.

我們將會討論一些有趣的新產品。

And like I said, we're going to update the financial model.

正如我所說的，我們將更新財務模型。

So operator, with that, let's close off the call.

接線員，就這樣，我們結束通話吧。

The conference is now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。