科林研發 (LRCX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Lam Research September Q1 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加泛林研究 9 月第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ram Ganesh, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Ram Ganesh。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加泛林研究季度財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer；執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment, and we'll review our financial results for the September 2024 quarter and our outlook for the December 2024 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 PM Pacific Time. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享商業環境的概述，並將回顧 2024 年 9 月季度的財務業績和 2024 年 12 月季度的前景。太平洋時間下午 1:00 後不久發布了詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿。新聞稿以及今天電話會議附帶的簡報幻燈片也可以在該公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in the accompanying slides in the presentation.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們 SEC 公開文件中揭露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中隨附的幻燈片以了解更多資訊。除非另有說明，今天對我們財務表現的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整可以在簡報中的隨附幻燈片中找到。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 PM Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website.

此次通話預計持續到太平洋時間下午 3:00。今天下午晚些時候，我們的網站將提供此次電話會議的重播。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

然後，我會將電話轉交給提姆。

Thank you, Ram, and good afternoon, everyone. Lam posted a strong September quarter, with revenues and earnings per share higher than the midpoint and profitability above the high end of the guided ranges. These results marked the fifth consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the company. When combined with our solid outlook for the December quarter, Lam's performance points to strong execution in an industry environment where NAND spending has yet to recover. Our view on calendar year 2024 WFE remains mostly unchanged.

謝謝拉姆，大家下午好。 Lam 公佈的 9 月季度業績強勁，營收和每股收益高於中點，獲利能力高於指導範圍的高端。這些結果標誌著該公司營收連續第五個季度成長。結合我們對 12 月季度的穩健前景，Lam 的業績表明在 NAND 支出尚未恢復的行業環境中執行力強勁。我們對 2024 年 WFE 的看法基本上保持不變。

Spending is expected to be in the mid $90 billion range. We continue to see AI driving strong investments in leading-edge logic nodes as well as advanced packaging segments, including high bandwidth memory or HBM.

支出預計在 900 億美元左右。我們繼續看到人工智慧推動對領先邏輯節點以及先進封裝領域（包括高頻寬記憶體或 HBM）的大力投資。

We expect domestic China WFE will be down in the second half relative to the first half, with China's share of Lam's overall revenue normalizing to the 30% range in the December quarter. For our normal cadence, we will provide the full details of our 2025 WFE outlook on our January earnings call. However, at this point, our early view for next year is for WFE growth from 2024s mid-$90 billion range. More importantly, we see an outstanding opportunity for Lam to outperform overall WFE growth in 2025. This is due to the critical role that etch and deposition play as fundamental enablers of higher performance more scalable semiconductor device architectures.

我們預計中國國內 WFE 下半年將較上半年下降，而中國在 Lam 整體收入中所佔的份額將在 12 月季度恢復至 30% 的範圍。按照正常節奏，我們將在 1 月的財報電話會議上提供 2025 年 WFE 展望的完整細節。然而，目前我們對明年的初步預測是，WFE 的成長將在 2024 年達到 900 億美元左右。更重要的是，我們認為Lam 在2025 年將有一個超越WFE 整體成長的絕佳機會。 。

Lam is strongly positioned to benefit both from improvement in NAND spending and increased customer investments across multiple technology inflections. In NAND, we expect the spending recovery to be driven primarily by technology upgrades, which is a highly favorable dynamic for Lam given our industry-leading position in critical man processes.

Lam 處於有利地位，可以從 NAND 支出的改善和跨越多個技術拐點的客戶投資增加中受益。在 NAND 領域，我們預計支出復甦將主要由技術升級推動，鑑於我們在關鍵人員流程方面的行業領先地位，這對 Lam 來說是一個非常有利的動態。

In foundry, logic and DRAM, we are set to benefit from growing investment in gate all-around backside power distribution, advanced packaging and dry EUV RECIST processing. Each of these advancements is more etch and deposition intensive, and we have talked about our progress in these areas over the past several quarters. We expect to see increase in adoption across all four inflections in 2025.

在代工、邏輯和 DRAM 領域，我們將受益於對閘極全方位背面配電、先進封裝和乾式 EUV RECIST 製程不斷增長的投資。這些進步中的每一項都更加蝕刻和沈積密集，我們在過去幾季中討論了我們在這些領域的進展。我們預計到 2025 年，所有四個拐點的採用率都會增加。

First, on NAND. This segment has seen a prolonged cyclical downturn, but technology conversions to more advanced nodes will be critical to meeting the increased demand for high-speed, high-capacity enterprise SSDs as well as satisfying the need for low-cost high-capacity storage and client devices. Currently, over two-thirds of bits are still manufactured using older sub-200 layer technologies. We believe customers will continue converting this capacity to more advanced nodes in 2025. With the industry's largest installed base of 3D NAND equipment, Lam should benefit disproportionately as these upgrades occur.

首先，關於 NAND。該細分市場經歷了長期的周期性低迷，但向更先進節點的技術轉換對於滿足對高速、大容量企業級 SSD 不斷增長的需求以及滿足低成本大容量存儲和客戶端的需求至關重要設備。目前，超過三分之二的比特仍然使用較舊的 200 層以下技術製造。我們相信客戶將在 2025 年繼續將這種產能轉換為更先進的節點。

Furthermore, NAND manufacturers must also address the growing challenge of Worldline resistance. This sets up an important materials migration from tungsten to molybdenum or moly, which offers superior thin film resistivity simplifies the process of minimizing leakage and yields the lowest resistance. Lam has more than a decade of learning embedded in our metal atomic layer deposition or ALD applications with customer engagements on moly across NAND, DRAM, and foundry logic. We have production wins for the moly transition in NAND that will scale in 2025 with foundry logic and DRAM ramps to follow.

此外，NAND 製造商還必須應對日益嚴峻的 Worldline 阻力挑戰。這建立了從鎢到鉬的重要材料遷移，從而提供卓越的薄膜電阻率，簡化了最大限度減少洩漏的過程並產生最低的電阻。 Lam 在我們的金屬原子層沉積或 ALD 應用中擁有十多年的學習經驗，並與客戶接觸過 NAND、DRAM 和代工邏輯領域的鉬。我們在 NAND 的鉬過渡方面取得了生產勝利，並將在 2025 年擴大規模，代工邏輯和 DRAM 也將隨之增加。

Outside of NAND, we continue to build momentum in gate all-around nodes with our selective etch tools, including recent wins and a large foundry logic customer. In advanced EUV patterning, our latest conductor etch tool with direct drive technology is gaining ground with broader adoption across key customers.

在 NAND 之外，我們繼續利用我們的選擇性蝕刻工具在閘極全能節點上建立動力，包括最近的勝利和大型代工邏輯客戶。在先進的 EUV 圖案化中，我們採用直接驅動技術的最新導體蝕刻工具正在獲得廣泛的關鍵客戶的廣泛採用。

In the evolution, the backside power distribution in foundry logic, we see expansion of our served market and share in dielectric etch and copper plating in 2025 due to the introduction of additional via formation steps and new metal layers. Advanced packaging has been a highlight this year, driven by the performance needs of advanced AI devices. Lam established early technological leadership in deposition for advanced packaging.

在代工邏輯中背面功率分佈的演變中，由於引入了額外的通孔形成步驟和新的金屬層，我們看到我們所服務的市場以及 2025 年電介質蝕刻和鍍銅份額將擴大。在先進人工智慧設備的性能需求的推動下，先進封裝成為今年的一大亮點。 Lam 在先進封裝沉積領域建立了早期技術領先地位。

Our unmatched experience in [copper plating] hardware design and process technology is enabling SABRE 3D to deliver best-in-class coplanarity, uniformity, and defectivity at high throughput. This has translated into significant market share gains in 2024 and strong momentum as we look ahead into 2025. Our SABRE 3D revenue has more than doubled this year as both the number of 2.5D and 3D packages and the metal layer count per package has grown. As the complexity of advanced packaging continues to increase over time, more stringent performance requirements should play to Lam's strengths.

我們在[鍍銅]五金設計和製程技術方面無與倫比的經驗使 SABRE 3D 能夠以高吞吐量提供一流的共面性、均勻性和缺陷率。這轉化為2024 年市場份額的顯著增長，以及我們展望2025 年的強勁勢頭。倍多。隨著先進封裝的複雜性隨著時間的推移而不斷增加，更嚴格的效能要求應該能夠發揮 Lam 的優勢。

Finally, in our Customer Support Business Group, or CSBG, we are seeing strong customer pull for productivity enhancement, extendability, and reuse of Lam's installed base of tools. In both DRAM and NAND, there is intense focus on lowering bid cost through efficient reuse of the installed base. This has led to recent market share wins were upgrades of existing Lam installed base systems provided better value than the new build alternatives offered by competitors.

最後，在我們的客戶支援業務組 (CSBG) 中，我們看到了客戶對 Lam 已安裝工具基礎的生產力提高、可擴展性和重複使用的強烈需求。在 DRAM 和 NAND 領域，人們非常關注透過有效重複使用已安裝基礎來降低投標成本。這導致最近贏得了市場份額，因為現有 Lam 已安裝基礎系統的升級提供了比競爭對手提供的新替代方案更好的價值。

Similarly, our customers' focus on installed base productivity is driving greater adoption of Lam's equipment intelligence services. with an additional 500 process chambers subscribed in the past quarter. So to wrap up, as we look at the changes ahead for every leading-edge device in every advanced package, we see more and more opportunity for Lam.

同樣，我們的客戶對安裝基礎生產力的關注正在推動 Lam 的設備智慧服務得到更多採用。上一季又訂了 500 個處理室。因此，總而言之，當我們審視每種先進封裝中每種前沿設備的未來變化時，我們看到 Lam 擁有越來越多的機會。

The AI era is here. We have transformed our business and expanded our product portfolio to prepare for this next generation of semiconductor industry growth. Our investments are in the early stages of paying off. I'm looking forward to sharing more about why we believe the best is yet to come for Lam at our Investor Day on February 19 in New York City.

AI時代已經來臨。我們已經轉變了業務並擴大了產品組合，為下一代半導體行業的成長做好準備。我們的投資正處於回報的早期階段。我期待在 2 月 19 日於紐約市舉行的投資者日上分享更多關於為什麼我們相信 Lam 最好的時刻尚未到來的信息。

Now here's Doug.

現在是道格。

Excellent. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today during what I know is a busy earnings season. Before I start, I want to remind everyone that on May 21, 2024, we announced a 10 for 1 stock split, which was effective October 2, 2024. All references made to share or per share amounts in my remarks have been adjusted to now reflect the stock split.

出色的。謝謝你，提姆。大家下午好，感謝您今天在繁忙的財報季節參加我們的電話會議。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，2024 年5 月21 日，我們宣布進行10 換1 的股票分割，並於2024 年10 月2 日生效。已調整至現在反映股票分割。

We delivered strong results in the September 2024 quarter. Our revenue and earnings per share came in above the midpoint of our guided range, while both gross margin and operating income percentage exceeded our guidance range. I'm pleased with the company's continued strong revenue and profitability execution as well as our solid generation of free cash flows for the quarter, which came in at $1.46 billion or 35% of revenue.

我們在 2024 年 9 月季度取得了強勁的業績。我們的收入和每股盈餘高於我們的指導範圍的中點，而毛利率和營業收入百分比都超過了我們的指導範圍。我對公司持續強勁的收入和盈利能力執行力以及本季穩定的自由現金流感到滿意，自由現金流為 14.6 億美元，佔收入的 35%。

Let's look at the details of our September quarter financial results. Revenue for the September quarter was $4.17 billion, which was an increase of 8% from the prior quarter. Our deferred revenue balance at the end of the quarter was $2.05 billion, an increase of $495 million from the June quarter. This grew mainly due to customer advanced payments. I believe our deferred revenue balance will trend lower into calendar year 2025, but you will likely continue to see fluctuation quarter-to-quarter.

讓我們來看看九月份季度財務業績的詳細資訊。 9月季度的營收為41.7億美元，比上一季成長8%。本季末我們的遞延收入餘額為 20.5 億美元，比 6 月季度增加了 4.95 億美元。這一增長主要是由於客戶預付款。我相信，到 2025 年，我們的遞延收入餘額將呈下降趨勢，但您可能會繼續看到季度與季度之間的波動。

From a segment perspective, September quarter systems revenue in memory was 35%, roughly in line with the prior quarter level of 36%. Within the Memory segment, though, DRAM increased, coming in at 24% of systems revenue versus 19% in the June quarter.

從細分市場來看，9 月季度記憶體系統營收為 35%，與上一季 36% 的水平大致持平。不過，在記憶體領域，DRAM 有所成長，佔系統收入的 24%，而第二季為 19%。

DRAM spending was focused on technology upgrades to One alpha, on beta, and some initial ramp of 1 gamma nodes to enable DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory. The nonvolatile memory segment represented 11% of our systems revenue, which was down from 17% in the prior quarter. This decline is driven by the timing of One customer's sequentially lower investment in specialty DRAM that we characterized as a nonvolatile investment because it has a nonvolatile component in the device.

DRAM 支出主要集中在 One alpha、beta 的技術升級，以及 1 gamma 節點的一些初始升級，以支援 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體。非揮發性記憶體業務占我們系統收入的 11%，低於上一季的 17%。這一下降是由於一位客戶對特種 DRAM 的投資連續減少的時機造成的，我們將其稱為非揮發性投資，因為它在設備中具有非揮發性組件。

The NAND segment has experienced a prolonged down cycle compared to historical norms. However, we anticipate that spending will increase in calendar 2025, and as utilization rates improved to more normal levels and our customers begin to invest in conversions to 256 and 384 layer class devices.

與歷史正常水準相比，NAND 領域經歷了較長的下行週期。然而，我們預計 2025 年支出將會增加，並且隨著利用率提高到更正常的水平，並且我們的客戶開始投資轉換為 256 和 384 層類設備。

The foundry segment represented 41% of systems revenue, a slight decrease from the percentage concentration in the June quarter of 43%. In dollar terms, spending was relatively unchanged in quarter-to-quarter. The Logic and Other segment was 24% of our systems revenue in the September quarter, up from the prior quarter level of 21%. The increase was driven by an uptick in both leading edge and specialty node logic devices.

代工部門佔系統收入的 41%，比 6 月季度的 43% 的百分比集中度略有下降。以美元計算，各季支出相對不變。邏輯和其他部門占我們九月季度系統收入的 24%，高於上一季 21% 的水平。這一增長是由前沿和專業節點邏輯裝置的成長所推動的。

Now I'll discuss the regional contribution of our total revenue. The China region accounted for 37%, down slightly from 39% in the prior quarter and a little bit stronger than we expected. Most of our China revenue continued to come from domestic Chinese customers. And as Tim mentioned, we expect spending from this region will decline in the December quarter. I think perhaps to approximately 30% of December's revenue.

現在我將討論我們總收入的區域貢獻。中國地區佔 37%，略低於上一季的 39%，略強於我們的預期。我們的中國收入大多仍來自中國國內客戶。正如蒂姆所提到的，我們預計該地區的支出將在 12 月季度下降。我認為大概佔 12 月收入的 30% 左右。

Our next largest geographic concentration was Korea at 18% of revenue in the September quarter, which was flat with the June quarter. And finally, Taiwan and the United States rounded up the remainder of the top four regions. Our Customer Support Business Group generated approximately $1.8 billion in revenue for the September quarter, up 4% from the June quarter and 25% higher than the same period in 2023.

我們的第二大地域集中地是韓國，佔 9 月季度營收的 18%，與 6 月季度持平。最後，台灣和美國包辦了前四名地區的其餘部分。我們的客戶支援業務集團在 9 月季度創造了約 18 億美元的收入，比 6 月季度增長 4%，比 2023 年同期增長 25%。

The sequential dollar growth was split evenly between Reliant Systems and all other components of CSPG. The spare parts component of CSBG continues to be the individual largest piece of this business unit's revenue.

連續的美元成長由 Reliant Systems 和 CSPG 的所有其他組成部分平均分配。 CSBG 的備件部分仍然是該業務部門收入的最大部分。

Let's turn to gross margin. The September quarter came in at 48.2%, which exceeded our guided range. Gross margin decreased a little sequentially, however, reflecting a decline in customer mix as well as an increase in incentive compensation. These factors were partially offset by improved factory utilization as we continue to make progress on our operational initiatives. Operating expenses for September were $722 million, up from the prior quarter amount of $689 million. The increase was partly due to growth in program spending as well as higher incentive compensation tied to the company's increased profitability outlook.

讓我們轉向毛利率。 9 月季度的成長率為 48.2%，超出了我們的指導範圍。然而，毛利率較上季略有下降，反映出客戶結構的下降以及激勵性薪資的增加。隨著我們在營運計劃上不斷取得進展，工廠利用率的提高部分抵消了這些因素。 9 月的營運支出為 7.22 億美元，高於上一季的 6.89 億美元。這一增長的部分原因是項目支出的成長以及與公司獲利前景增強相關的更高的激勵性薪酬。

R&D accounted for 67% of the total spending. Operating margin for the current quarter was 30.9%, slightly above the June quarter level of 30.7% and above the high end of our guidance range, primarily because of the higher revenue, and continued strong gross margin performance. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 13.8%, generally within the range of our expectations.

研發支出佔總支出的67%。本季的營業利潤率為 30.9%，略高於 6 月季度 30.7% 的水平，也高於我們指導範圍的上限，這主要是因為收入增加以及持續強勁的毛利率表現。我們本季的非 GAAP 稅率為 13.8%，整體在我們的預期範圍內。

Our estimate is for the tax rate to continue to be in the low to mid-teens range in the near term. Other income and expense for the September quarter came in at $13 million in income compared with $19 million in income in the June quarter.

我們的估計是，稅率在短期內將繼續保持在十幾歲以下的範圍內。 9 月季度的其他收入和支出為 1,300 萬美元，而 6 月份季度的其他收入和支出為 1,900 萬美元。

The decrease in OI&E was primarily due to foreign exchange fluctuations. OI&E will continue to be susceptible to market-related variations that could cause some level of volatility quarter-to-quarter. Let me pivot to the capital return side of things. We allocated approximately $1 billion to open market share repurchases, and we paid $261 million in dividends in the September quarter.

OI&E 的下降主要是由於匯率波動。 OI&E 將繼續受到市場相關變化的影響，這可能導致季度與季度之間出現一定程度的波動。讓我轉向資本回報方面。我們分配了約 10 億美元用於公開市場股票回購，並在 9 月季度支付了 2.61 億美元的股息。

I'd just highlight that in August, we announced a 15% growth in the dividend, in line with our plan to deliver an annual growth in the dividend. And I just mentioned, since paying our first dividend in 2014, we have now raised the dividend in 10 consecutive years. We have $9.8 billion remaining on our Board-authorized share repurchase plan. And we continue to track towards our long-term capital return plans of returning 75% to 100% of our free cash flow.

我想強調的是，8 月份，我們宣布股息成長 15%，這符合我們實現股息年度成長的計畫。我剛才提到，自從2014年派發第一次股利以來，我們已經連續10年提高股利。董事會授權的股票回購計畫還剩 98 億美元。我們繼續致力於實現長期資本回報計劃，即返還 75% 至 100% 的自由現金流。

For the September quarter, diluted earnings per share was $0.86, above the midpoint of our guided range. The diluted share count was approximately 1.3 billion shares, which was a reduction from the June quarter. On the balance sheet, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $6.1 billion at the end of the September quarter, up from $5.9 billion at the end of the June quarter. The increase was largely due to cash from operating activities, offset by cash allocated to share buyback, dividend payments, and capital expenditures. This sales outstanding was 64 days in the September quarter, an increase from 59 days that we saw in the June quarter.

9 月季度的攤薄每股收益為 0.86 美元，高於我們指導範圍的中點。稀釋後的股份數量約為13億股，較6月份季度減少。在資產負債表上，截至 9 月季度末，我們的現金和現金等價物總額為 61 億美元，高於 6 月季度末的 59 億美元。這一成長主要是由於經營活動產生的現金，被分配給股票回購、股利支付和資本支出的現金所抵銷。 9 月季度的銷售未償還天數為 64 天，比 6 月季度的 59 天增加。

Inventory at the end of the September quarter totaled $4.2 billion. Inventory turns improved to 2.1 times from the prior quarter level of 1.9. We will continue to manage inventory levels to the best of our ability to align with customer demand. Our noncash expenses for the September quarter included approximately $80 million for equity compensation, $80 million in depreciation, and $14 million in amortization. Capital expenditures for the September quarter were $111 million, up $10 million from the June quarter.

截至 9 月季度末的庫存總額為 42 億美元。庫存週轉率從上一季的 1.9 倍提高到 2.1 倍。我們將繼續盡最大努力管理庫存水平，以滿足客戶需求。我們九月季度的非現金支出包括約 8,000 萬美元的股權補償、8,000 萬美元的折舊和 1,400 萬美元的攤提。 9月季度的資本支出為1.11億美元，比6月份季度增加1000萬美元。

Capital spending was mainly centered on lab investments in the United States and Asia as well as manufacturing facilitization supporting our global strategy to be close to both customers' development as well as manufacturing locations.

資本支出主要集中在美國和亞洲的實驗室投資以及支持我們貼近客戶開發和製造地點的全球策略的製造設施。

We ended the September quarter with approximately 17,700 regular full-time employees, which is an increase of approximately 500 people from the prior quarter. Headcount growth was predominantly in field and factory personnel to support increased tool installation as well as growing manufacturing activity levels.

截至 9 月季度末，我們擁有約 17,700 名正式全職員工，比上一季增加了約 500 人。員工人數的成長主要是現場和工廠人員，以支援工具安裝的增加以及製造活動水準的提高。

Let's now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December 2024 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $4.3 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Gross margin of 47%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. The gross margin guidance is reflective of a quarter-to-quarter headwind in customer mix. operating margins of 30%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

現在讓我們來看看 2024 年 12 月季度的非 GAAP 指引。我們預計營收為 43 億美元，上下浮動 3 億美元。毛利率47%，上下浮動1個百分點。毛利率指引反映了客戶組合中季度與季度之間的不利因素。營業利益率為30%，上下浮動1個百分點。

This reflects our continued commitment to managing our expense level as we prioritize critical R&D investment areas. And finally, earnings per share of $0.87, plus or minus $0.10, based on a share count of approximately 1.29 billion shares.

這反映了我們在優先考慮關鍵研發投資領域時對管理費用水準的持續承諾。最後，每股收益為 0.87 美元，正負 0.10 美元，基於約 12.9 億股的股數。

So let me wrap up. We continue to execute well in 2024. I believe that's reflected in our September results as well as guidance for the December quarter. We're on track to achieve modest improvement in our operating leverage for the full calendar year as we prioritize critical investments to extend our technology differentiation while carefully managing overall spending levels. The investments we're making position Lam well to benefit from the architectural and materials inflections we see ahead.

讓我總結一下。我們在 2024 年繼續表現良好。我們預計在整個日曆年中實現營運槓桿的適度改善，因為我們優先考慮關鍵投資以擴大我們的技術差異化，同時仔細管理整體支出水準。我們正在進行的投資使 Lam 能夠從我們未來看到的建築和材料變化中受益。

We believe that we will continue to gain traction and outperform the overall growth in WFE in calendar year 2025. We continue to see 2025 as a growth year in both WFE, and more importantly, Lam's top line.

我們相信，到 2025 年，我們將繼續獲得牽引力，並超越 WFE 的整體成長。

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在要開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tim Arcuri, UBS.

提姆‧阿庫裡，瑞銀集團。

Thanks a lot. Tim and Doug, I know that you don't want to project 2025 WFE, and I'm not asking you to give us a number, but can you just talk about the puts and takes. I guess, particularly around China.

多謝。 Tim 和 Doug，我知道你們不想規劃 2025 年 WFE，我並不是要求你們給我們一個數字，但你們能談談投入和產出嗎？我想，尤其是在中國。

I mean, obviously, there's going to be some additions to the entity list, but it seems like even a bigger factor might be the consolidation of some of this legacy node stuff. It seems like there's a huge consolidation of a lot of these fabs that have been built that are ultimately connected to either Huawei or BYD. So can you just talk sort of conceptually about the puts and takes and particularly about China? I mean it's down about 10 points of your revenue. Thanks.

我的意思是，顯然，實體清單中將會添加一些內容，但似乎更大的因素可能是一些遺留節點內容的整合。似乎有許多已建成的工廠進行了大規模整合，最終與華為或比亞迪相連。那麼您能否從概念上談談買權，特別是中國？我的意思是你的收入下降了大約 10 個百分點。謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Tim, and thanks for not pressing us on an early 2025 guide. We are trying to -- we realize there's a lot of questions, and we are trying to give some additional color where we can. We said that we believe year-on-year WFE overall would be up next year. Specifically, our view for China WFE next year would be that it is lower.

當然。謝謝提姆，也感謝您沒有催促我們制定 2025 年初指南。我們正在努力——我們意識到存在著許多問題，我們正在盡力提供一些額外的色彩。我們表示，我們相信明年 WFE 整體年比將會上升。具體來說，我們對明年中國 WFE 的看法是較低。

You can pick all the variety of reasons that you may have just listed and that as a percent of Lam's total revenue, China would represent a lower percentage next year than this year. And so I think that's about all we can say right now. Obviously, in January, we'll give a lot more color on the full market.

您可以選擇剛剛列出的所有各種原因，即明年中國佔 Lam 總收入的百分比將低於今年。所以我想這就是我們現在能說的。顯然，在一月份，我們將為整個市場提供更多的色彩。

I'd just add a little bit. Tim, outside of China, they'll think about everything else going on leading-edge foundry and logic continues to be quite good. DRAM continues to be pretty robust with DDR5 high-bandwidth memory.

我只想補充一點。提姆，在中國以外的地區，他們會考慮前沿代工廠的其他一切，並且邏輯仍然非常好。憑藉 DDR5 高頻寬內存，DRAM 繼續表現強勁。

What the trailing edge specialty node stuff does outside of China, I think we'll, as an industry, work our way through the inventory positions we're in. So trends are actually pretty good in most of the industries. I'd just remind you of that, and I know you know that.

我認為，作為一個行業，後緣特種節點產品在中國以外的用途將透過我們所處的庫存狀況來解決。我只是提醒你這一點，我知道你知道這一點。

Yes. And I think, Tim, that's -- maybe I think gets lost when we talk about percentages is we talked about a tremendous number of technology inflections and investments during my prepared remarks, none of which would actually be occurring in China as a result of the either restrictions already in place or the technology nodes that they're at or the fact that -- I mean, again, NAND, for instance, for us, those upgrades would be generally occurring outside of domestic China. Nodes like [gate] all around, obviously, are outside of domestic China.

是的。提姆，我認為，當我們談論百分比時，我可能會迷失方向，因為我們在我準備好的發言中談論了大量的技術變化和投資，而這些都不會真正發生在中國，因為要么是已經存在的限制，要么是它們所處的技術節點，或者是這樣的事實——我的意思是，以NAND 為例，對於我們來說，這些升級通常會發生在中國國內以外的地區。顯然，周圍像[門]這樣的節點都在中國國內之外。

And so when you think about percentages, the stronger those trends are for Lam and for the industry, then naturally, that's why we see China continuing to trend lower as a percent of our total revenue. Right.

因此，當你考慮百分比時，對於 Lam 和整個行業來說，這些趨勢越強，那麼自然地，這就是為什麼我們看到中國占我們總收入的百分比持續下降的原因。正確的。

And then just like super quick, Doug, for you. So CSBG was up. It was better deferred being up a lot. Is that like Reliant related?

然後就像超級快，道格，為你。所以CSBG 就起來了。最好推遲很多。這與Reliant有關嗎？

Yes, a little bit. What you heard me say is the growth in CSBG was a combination of growth in Reliant and then everything else. So Reliant was pretty strong again last quarter. So yes, Tim, that's part of it.

是的，有一點。你聽到我說的是 CSBG 的成長是 Reliant 和其他一切成長的結合。因此，Reliant 上季再次表現強勁。所以，是的，提姆，這就是其中的一部分。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. Last call, you guys talked about NAND utilizations moving higher, driving growth in spares. Did you see that trend continue into the September quarter? And you've talked about confidence on NAND WFE growth outlook for next year. Is the confidence level as strong on WFE spending growth outlook relative to let's say, 90 days ago? And are you starting to get some order and forecast visibility to support that?

下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。上次電話會議中，你們談到了 NAND 利用率的提高，推動了備件的成長。您是否看到這種趨勢持續到九月季度？您談到了對明年 NAND WFE 成長前景的信心。與 90 天前相比，人們對 WFE 支出成長前景的信心是否同樣強勁？您是否開始獲得一些訂單和預測可見性來支持這一點？

Yes, Harlan. I think that what I'd like to point out on NAND is it's a combination of things. We continue to see utilization being strong for the capacity that's in place. But what I was talking about in my prepared remarks was this need for what we would consider to be higher quality bits, higher performance to meet the needs of enterprise SSDs and other applications are now tied to sort of this move in AI.

是的，哈倫。我認為關於 NAND 我想指出的是它是多種因素的結合。我們持續看到現有產能的利用率很高。但我在準備好的演講中所說的是，我們認為需要更高品質的位元、更高的效能來滿足企業 SSD 和其他應用程式的需求，現在與人工智慧的這項舉措聯繫在一起。

And so when we think about it, this is going to drive -- even if you're not looking as an industry to add a lot more bit capacity itself, you're going to want to shift that two-thirds that is manufactured still in the 1xx-layer technologies you're going to shift that to nodes that are taking advantage of things like sell under array or be able to do QLC, the moly transition we talked about, all of those things allow a manufacturer to be a lot more competitive for the parts of the market that are seeing a lot of strength.

因此，當我們考慮這一點時，這將推動——即使你不希望這個行業本身增加更多的比特容量，你仍然會想要轉移三分之二的製造量在1xx 層技術中，您將把它轉移到利用陣列銷售或能夠進行QLC（我們談到的鉬過渡）等優勢的節點，所有這些都使製造商能夠對於那些實力雄厚的市場部分來說更具競爭力。

And so the reason that is so important for Lam is we play a really critical role. And we capture a very high percentage of all of those upgrades. And so our anticipation is that the industry will be still in a recovery mode next year. But if most of the spending is directed towards technology upgrades and it's pulling in all of those things I just talked about, that's right where Lam's product portfolio plays. It's really our fleet spot. And so that's why we're optimistic on NAND almost regardless of whether WFE itself like rises a tremendous amount. It's really spending will be in our favor.

因此，對林鄭月娥來說如此重要的原因是我們扮演非常關鍵的角色。我們在所有這些升級中佔據了非常高的比例。因此我們預計明年該產業仍將處於復甦模式。但如果大部分支出都用於技術升級，並吸引了我剛才談到的所有這些內容，那麼這正是 Lam 的產品組合發揮作用的地方。這確實是我們的艦隊所在地。這就是為什麼我們對 NAND 持樂觀態度，幾乎不管 WFE 本身是否會大幅上漲。這確實是對我們有利的支出。

Yes. I appreciate that. And then AI and accelerated compute dynamics continuing very strong, right? Obviously, that's pulling the need for more HBM memory, as you mentioned last call, you talked about driving more than $1 billion in HBM revenues this year. Is that number even higher now? And I'm wondering if you can maybe quantify the HBM outlook for this year.

是的。我很欣賞這一點。然後人工智慧和加速運算動態繼續非常強勁，對嗎？顯然，這拉動了對更多 HBM 記憶體的需求，正如您在上次電話會議中提到的，您談到今年將推動 HBM 收入超過 10 億美元。現在這個數字還更高嗎？我想知道您是否可以量化今年 HBM 的前景。

As we look into next year, although HBM bid supply is only going to represent 6%, 7% of total bit supply, it's going to account for something like 20%, 25% of total DRAM wafer capacity, right? And that in and of itself is up 60%, 70% versus this year. How are you thinking about sort of the growth trajectory of your HPM and advanced [pathline] business next year and even over the next several years?

展望明年，雖然 HBM 投標供應量僅佔總位供應量的 6％、7％，但它將佔 DRAM 晶圓總產能的 20％、25％，對嗎？與今年相比，這一數字本身增加了 60%、70%。您如何看待明年乃至未來幾年 HPM 和先進[路徑]業務的成長軌跡？

Yes. Sure, Harlan. I think we'll -- we're not probably going to give a new milestone number, but we did talk about this $1 billion achievement in our advanced packaging business, really driven by the strength in AI. What I would say is since the last call, that part of our business has continued to strengthen even beyond what we had originally thought. I highlighted some of that in my commentary around the SABRE 3D, the copper plating.

是的。當然，哈倫。我想我們可能不會給出一個新的里程碑數字，但我們確實談論了我們先進封裝業務的 10 億美元成就，這確實是由人工智慧的力量推動的。我想說的是，自從上次通話以來，我們這部分的業務持續加強，甚至超越了我們最初的想像。我在 SABRE 3D（鍍銅）的評論中強調了其中的一些內容。

It's just a very strong part of the business right now. And I think the companies that have good exposure to it, which primarily are companies like etch and deposition companies are seeing outsized benefit right now from that trend. I don't think advanced packaging slows down any time from my view and from my conversations with customers. It's an enabling technology that's allowing system-level performance.

目前它只是業務中非常強大的一部分。我認為那些對此有良好了解的公司，主要是蝕刻和沈積公司等公司，現在正從這一趨勢中看到巨大的利益。從我的觀點以及我與客戶的對話來看，我認為先進封裝不會在任何時候放緩。它是一種支援系統級性能的技術。

It's very hard to achieve through chips themselves. And I mean it requires really this architectural change. So we're very positive on advanced packaging next year. And when we get to January, we'll probably highlight a little bit more about what we see in terms of new numbers for that segment.

透過晶片本身很難實現。我的意思是，它確實需要這種架構上的改變。因此，我們對明年的先進封裝非常樂觀。當我們到一月份時，我們可能會更強調我們在該細分市場的新數字方面所看到的情況。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi. Thanks so much for taking the question. I had two as well. First, Tim, you talked about the adoption of moly and 3D NAND. And you also mentioned leading edge foundry and logic and DRAM to follow in the out years. I was hoping you could help us sort of translate some of that, maybe not the specific numbers, but how we should be thinking about your ability to grow the business with Molly in '25 and beyond. Is it a net gain opportunity for you? Or because you're already quite strong in that space, is there an offset to the introduction of moly?

你好。非常感謝您提出問題。我也有兩個。首先，Tim，您談到了鉬和 3D NAND 的採用。您還提到了未來幾年將遵循的前沿代工、邏輯和 DRAM。我希望你能幫助我們翻譯其中的一些內容，也許不是具體的數字，而是我們應該如何考慮你在 25 年及以後與 Molly 一起發展業務的能力。這對您來說是一個淨收益機會嗎？或者因為您在該領域已經相當強大，所以引入鉬是否會有所抵消？

Yes, it is an area where we're quite strong already in the Tungsten, as you point out, especially in NAND, but it still turns out to be a net gain for us as -- again, there is a certain benefit that comes from upgrades and moving technology forward, and there's additional benefit if you're basically selling in new high value-add technologies for our customers.

是的，正如您所指出的，我們在鎢領域已經相當強大，尤其是在 NAND 領域，但事實證明它仍然是我們的淨收益，因為——再次，有一定的好處來自升級和推動技術進步，如果您基本上為我們的客戶銷售新的高附加價值技術，還會有額外的好處。

And so again, the fact that it helps resolve some of the Wordline resistance issues that exist and really is a major materials migration that then can sort of carry the industry forward for several nodes after that. It's a kind of step up for us in terms of business through that transition. And then as we see those same transitions occur in foundry logic and DRAM, I think it represents a gain opportunity for us there as well out into future years.

再說一遍，它有助於解決一些存在的字線電阻問題，並且確實是一次重大的材料遷移，然後可以在之後的幾個節點上推動行業向前發展。透過這種轉變，這對我們來說是業務方面的一個進步。然後，當我們看到代工邏輯和 DRAM 中發生同樣的轉變時，我認為這對我們來說以及未來幾年來說都是一個獲利機會。

Got it. Thank you. And then my follow-up is on leading-edge foundry logic. I both -- I think both you and Doug characterize that area as an area of strength. A peer of yours last week, they kind of lowered their '25 outlook based on some of the competitive dynamics going on in that space. I think there's one customer that's doing really well, maybe two others that are doing not so well.

知道了。謝謝。然後我的後續內容就是前沿的代工邏輯。我認為你和道格都將該領域描述為優勢領域。上週，您的一位同行根據該領域的一些競爭動態，降低了對「25」的展望。我認為有一位客戶做得非常好，也許另外兩位客戶做得不好。

Is the net-net in your view as it pertains to the '25 outlook, is that unchanged relative to 90 days ago? Or have you seen any kind of shifts in the outlook when you think about overall leading-edge foundry and logic? Thank you.

您認為與 25 年前景相關的淨淨值與 90 天前相比是否沒有變化？或者，當您考慮整體領先的代工和邏輯時，您是否看到了前景的任何變化？謝謝。

Well, I don't think it's really changed from our perspective in the last 90 days. But that's because generally, if I think about what's driving our business, it's a little less has to do with volume as much as technology inflections. And so as you move forward from a node that wasn't gate all around to one that's gate all around, that creates opportunities for Lam that some companies that might actually be somewhat of a similar opportunity.

嗯，我認為在過去 90 天裡，從我們的角度來看，情況並沒有真正改變。但這是因為，一般來說，如果我思考推動我們業務發展的因素，就會發現，與數量的關係不如與技術變化的關係。因此，當你從一個沒有大門的節點前進到一個到處都有大門的節點時，這為 Lam 創造了機會，而一些公司實際上可能有類似的機會。

But for Lam because we can now penetrate new tools like selective etch and ALD at rates that we had not been able to previously, we think that, that may be why it hasn't changed as much for us. We see it as a positive opportunity.

但對於 Lam 來說，因為我們現在可以以以前無法達到的速度滲透選擇性蝕刻和 ALD 等新工具，我們認為這可能是為什麼它對我們來說沒有太大改變的原因。我們認為這是一個積極的機會。

We also see -- again, we have put an exact timing on it, but we have said we believe in 2025, you start to see the introduction of what we would consider to be quite etch and depth intensive inflections like the backside power distribution and further advanced packaging use in leading-edge logic foundry.

我們也看到——我們已經給出了準確的時間安排，但我們說過我們相信到 2025 年，您將開始看到我們認為相當蝕刻和深度密集的變化的引入，例如背面功率分佈和在領先的邏輯代工廠中進一步採用先進的封裝。

And so those are things that I think primarily benefited companies with portfolios that look like Lam Research; that position is strong. And so I don't know, I can't speak to everybody's outlook, but I know that the way we look at these technology transitions, they're quite favorable for our portfolio setup.

因此，我認為這些事情主要有利於擁有 Lam Research 等投資組合的公司；這個地位很強大。所以我不知道，我不能談論每個人的前景，但我知道我們看待這些技術轉型的方式，它們對我們的投資組合設定非常有利。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

For the first one, going back to China. So it's indicated down about, I think, $250 million or so in calendar Q4. Does China stay at these levels for the next several quarters? Can it build off of it? Does it decline? What is sort of the broad assumption.

第一個，回到中國。因此，我認為第四季的支出將減少約 2.5 億美元。中國在接下來的幾季會保持在這些水準嗎？它可以以此為基礎嗎？它會下降嗎？什麼是廣泛的假設？

And I think, Tim, in the last earnings call, you had suggested '25 could be a decent year for China, but that view seems to have changed somewhat. And I'm curious what changed, what markets, what are the signals? So just kind of China versus December levels and then what has changed in the overall China view for '25?

我認為，蒂姆，在上次財報電話會議上，您曾表示“25 年對中國來說可能是不錯的一年”，但這種觀點似乎有所改變。我很好奇發生了什麼變化，有哪些市場，有哪些訊號？那麼，中國與 12 月的水準相比，那麼 25 世紀中國的整體看法發生了什麼變化？

Yes, Vivek, maybe I'll take it. This is Doug. Yes, China is trending down a little bit right now, but let me be very, very clear. It's not going away. It's just trending lower as a percent of our overall revenue.

是的，維韋克，也許我會接受。這是道格。是的，中國現在的趨勢有點下降，但讓我非常非常清楚。它不會消失。它占我們總收入的百分比呈下降趨勢。

That's partly due to the fact that, yes, we -- as we sit here today, we look at China WP is lower next year. But other things are strengthening at the same time. So when you look at the percent of the total revenue, it's trending a little bit lower. But let me be very clear: it's not going away.

部分原因是，是的，我們今天坐在這裡，我們認為明年中國的工資會更低。但同時其他事情也在加強。因此，當你查看佔總收入的百分比時，你會發現它的趨勢有點低。但讓我非常明確：它不會消失。

Yes, I think that was -- if I made the comment about China being a decent year next year, it's basically, I think it's the comment Doug just made, which is we always have expected it to normalize as Lam's business in our strongest markets like NAND.

是的，我認為，如果我對中國明年將是一個不錯的一年發表評論，那麼基本上，我認為這是道格剛剛發表的評論，我們一直期望它能夠像林氏集團在我們最強勁的市場中的業務一樣正常化像NAND一樣。

And now some of these new emerging areas like advanced packaging really come on even more strongly in 2025. And so we've always expected, as a percentage of our total revenues, it would trend down. And so I don't know if the outlook has changed dramatically in the last few months.

現在，先進封裝等一些新興領域在 2025 年確實會更加強勁。所以我不知道過去幾個月前景是否發生了巨大變化。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, maybe one on gross margins. So I think Q3, you beat quite nicely up -- so what drove that? And I think for calendar Q4, it's coming to 47%. So as we look out, Doug, over the next several quarters, given that China mix will be lower, should we assume that 47% is the baseline and then you get some leverage on top of it? Or just how should we conceptually think about calendar '25 gross margin versus calendar '24? Is there a scenario where you can keep gross margins flattish year-on-year calendar year?

好的。然後是我的後續行動，也許是關於毛利率的。所以我認為第三季度，你打得很好——那麼是什麼推動了這一點？我認為第四季這一比例將達到 47%。因此，道格，在我們展望未來幾季時，考慮到中國的佔比將會較低，我們是否應該假設 47% 是基準，然後在此基礎上獲得一些槓桿？或者我們應該如何從概念上考慮日曆 '25 的毛利率與日曆 '24 的毛利率？有沒有一種情況可以讓毛利率與去年同期持平？

Yes. Vivek, thanks for the question. Yes, listen, there's many, many things that can move gross margin around in the near term here: customer mix, product mix, operational efficiencies and so forth. We've been trying to signal for a while that, hey, this customer mix stuff is going to be a little bit of a headwind as China percent of total begins to soften a little bit. And you're seeing that in the December guide.

是的。維韋克，謝謝你的提問。是的，聽著，有很多很多因素可以在短期內改變毛利率：客戶組合、產品組合、營運效率等等。一段時間以來，我們一直在試圖發出信號，嘿，隨著中國佔總量的百分比開始稍微軟化，這種客戶組合的東西將會有點逆風。您可以在 12 月指南中看到這一點。

However, if you remember back when business turned down at the end of '22 into '23, we embarked on what we described as operational efficiency initiatives, trying to pivot the company, grow that footprint in the factories in the Asia region, which as business grows, will benefit from those operational efficiencies.

然而，如果您還記得 22 世紀末到 23 世紀末業務下滑的情況，我們就開始實施所謂的營運效率舉措，試圖調整公司結構，擴大在亞洲地區工廠的足跡，業務成長，將受益於這些營運效率。

So you're beginning to see some of or maybe more than some, you're beginning to see that show up. If you remember before China ticked up as a percent of our revenue, we were at, I don't know, roughly 46%, and now you kind of see it at 47%. So we've pivoted the company actually in a beneficial way from a cost standpoint, and you'll still see more of that as we go forward.

所以你開始看到一些，或者可能不只一些，你開始看到它的出現。如果你還記得，在中國占我們收入的比例上升之前，我不知道，我們大約是 46%，現在你看到的大概是 47%。因此，從成本的角度來看，我們實際上以一種有益的方式改變了公司的發展方向，隨著我們的前進，你仍然會看到更多這樣的情況。

But there's a lot of things that move gross margin around. I'm not going to get into guiding it specifically. But that's some of the steps you should be thinking about.

但有很多因素會影響毛利率。我不打算具體指導它。但這是您應該考慮的一些步驟。

CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

CJ 繆斯、坎托·費茲傑拉。

Yes, good afternoon and thank you for taking the question. I guess for the first question, I was hoping to focus on CSBG and Reliant. As you think about a world where China is slowing down, is that a piece that we should be thinking about at least as part of CSBG that would decline? And just for my education, as you think about slower China, is that better or worse in terms of CSBG revenue intensity for you guys?

是的，下午好，感謝您提出問題。我想對於第一個問題，我希望關注 CSBG 和 Reliant。當你想到一個中國正在放緩的世界時，我們是否應該至少將其作為將衰落的 CSBG 的一部分來考慮？就我的教育而言，當你想到發展緩慢的中國時，對你們來說，就 CSBG 收入強度而言，這是更好還是更糟？

Yes, CJ. I mean, from a Reliance standpoint, when you think about investment in the specialty nodes or maybe the trailing edge nodes, that's where Reliant will ebb and flow. And obviously, you know where the restrictions sit in the China region mainly, that's what you've got going on in China.

是的，CJ。我的意思是，從 Reliance 的角度來看，當您考慮專業節點或後緣節點的投資時，這就是 Reliant 會起起落落的地方。顯然，你知道中國地區的限制主要集中在哪裡，這就是中國正在發生的事情。

But there's other components of it as well, right, outside of China, there's a decent profile of investment there. But yes, as WFE perhaps reduces a little bit in China, that will be a bit of a headwind for the Reliant business unit.

但它還有其他組成部分，對吧，在中國之外，那裡有不錯的投資。但是，是的，由於 WFE 在中國可能會減少一點，這對 Reliant 業務部門來說將是一個阻力。

The other components of it, though, spare service upgrades will have a lot to do with what's going on globally in the overall capacity of every process done.

然而，它的其他組成部分，備用服務升級將與全球每個流程的整體能力發生的情況有很大關係。

Yes. And I think, CJ, I would just add. I mean, I mentioned a couple of these -- a couple of things around the equipment intelligence and previous calls. We've talked about our co-bot activity I think that as leading-edge devices continue to grow and also become more complex, the need for these types of data-driven troubleshooting and tool matching capabilities and even sort of automated maintenance will become a bigger part of our CSBG revenue stream as well. And so we look to that as an area where we can continue to keep moving forward.

是的。我想，CJ，我只想補充一下。我的意思是，我提到了其中的一些——一些圍繞設備智慧和之前的呼叫的事情。我們已經討論了我們的協作機器人活動，我認為隨著前沿設備的不斷增長並且變得更加複雜，對這些類型的數據驅動的故障排除和工具匹配功能甚至自動化維護的需求將成為一種趨勢我們的CSBG 收入來源也佔很大一部分。因此，我們認為這是一個我們可以繼續前進的領域。

Very helpful. And then I guess maybe on OpEx. You started the year, Doug, talking about the need to invest for projects that have real line of sight for growth. And OpEx will narrowly outgrow top line this year. Curious, are you at the stage where you are funding what you need to fund? And how should we think about operating leverage into calendar '25?

非常有幫助。然後我想也許是在營運支出上。道格，您在新的一年開始時談到了投資具有真正成長前景的專案的必要性。今年營運支出的成長將略高於營收。很好奇，您是否處於為所需資金提供資金的階段？我們該如何考慮 25 年後的營運槓桿？

Yes, CJ, thanks for the question. Yes, we funded pretty much everything, but as we came into the year, we expected that we needed to fund, in fact, maybe even a little bit more, right? Revenue turned out to be probably a little bit stronger.

是的，CJ，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們資助了幾乎所有的事情，但隨著我們進入這一年，我們預計我們需要資助，事實上，甚至可能更多一點，對嗎？事實證明，收入可能會更強一些。

And in fact, remember, as we began the year, I was suggesting, we were suggesting that you wouldn't see leverage from us this year. And in fact, you actually have we've delivered over a full percentage point of operating margin leverage at the midpoint of the December guide. So I think we all feel pretty good. Tim, and I feel pretty good about what we've been able to do.

事實上，請記住，當我們今年開始時，我建議，我們建議今年你不會看到我們的影響力。事實上，我們實際上已經在 12 月指南的中點提供了超過一個百分點的營業利潤率槓桿。所以我認為我們都感覺很好。提姆，我對我們所做的事情感到非常滿意。

As we get into next year, depending on how WP grows, how our top line grows, I hope we'll be able to continue to deliver some leverage into next year as well.

當我們進入明年時，根據 WP 的成長情況、我們的營收成長情況，我希望我們也能繼續在明年提供一些影響力。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里斯·桑卡，TD·考恩。

Yes, thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. First one, Tim, I understand, thanks for the early view on calendar '25 WFP, and you said that Lam revenue should outgrow or continue to outgrow WFE. Historically, outperformance happened during strong NAND years, and you do expect NAND WFE to grow. But I'm just wondering, is NAND still going to be the driver, especially with all this noise around cryoed, maybe to 2026 even not 2025. I'm just trying to figure out what are the drivers for outperformance for Lam in calendar '25. And then I have a follow-up.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題。我有兩個。第一個，Tim，我明白，感謝您對 25 年糧食計劃署日曆的早期看法，您說 Lam 的收入增長應該超過或繼續超過 WFE。從歷史上看，表現優異發生在 NAND 強勁的年份，並且您確實預計 NAND WFE 會增長。但我只是想知道，NAND 是否仍然會成為驅動因素，尤其是在所有這些噪音都在冰冷的情況下，也許到2026 年，甚至不是2025 年。因素是什麼？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Well, I think you probably did see the announcement from Lam in our Cryo 3.0 technology not too long ago. And so I think that some of that noise is what Lam is creating around the benefits of new technology upgrades to our own systems. And so I think the most important thing to think about with NAND is that the most efficient way to go from a certain layer count to a higher layer count and get the benefits of those new technologies is to upgrade the installed base you already have in your fab. And so that's why we're talking about this high capture rate Lam has around NAND upgrades and how that's beneficial both for us and for our customers.

是的。嗯，我想您不久前可能確實看到了 Lam 在我們的 Cryo 3.0 技術中發布的公告。因此，我認為其中一些噪音是林圍繞我們自己的系統新技術升級的好處而製造的。因此，我認為對於 NAND，要考慮的最重要的事情是，從特定層數到更高層數並獲得這些新技術的好處的最有效方法是升級您現有的安裝基礎。這就是為什麼我們談論 Lam 在 NAND 升級方面的高捕獲率，以及這對我們和我們的客戶有何好處。

And so I think 2025, whatever the WFE spend is in NAND, it will be dominated by those technology upgrades and Lam is by far in the best position to deliver both the technology and the economic value to our customers.

因此，我認為到 2025 年，無論 WFE 在 NAND 方面的支出如何，它將以這些技術升級為主，而 Lam 迄今為止處於向我們的客戶提供技術和經濟價值的最佳位置。

So that's kind of the way I see the NAND market playing out next year. And it's a little too early for us to say exactly what the spending will be. But again, the requirements for those higher quality bids, I think, are being discussed and talked about in light of these new AI applications pretty publicly.

這就是我對明年 NAND 市場發展的看法。對我們來說，現在確切地說出具體的支出還為時過早。但我認為，鑑於這些新的人工智慧應用程序，人們正在相當公開地討論和討論對更高品質投標的要求。

I think Krish, it's everything else that we've been -- we've also been talking about for a while, right, advanced packaging, backside power, gate all around, dry photo resist, right? Tim talks about this every time in his script because we're going to outperform in those areas, too. So when you layer these two things together, that is where our confidence comes from.

我認為 Krish，這就是我們一直以來的其他一切 - 我們也已經討論了一段時間，對吧，先進封裝、背面電源、周圍的柵極、乾光刻膠，對吧？蒂姆每次在他的劇本中都會談到這一點，因為我們也將在這些領域表現出色。因此，當你將這兩件事放在一起時，這就是我們信心的來源。

Yes. I think the -- I mentioned in the script, the this comment, which I assume people are picking up on, but it's the etch and depth intensity of the technology inflections that are coming. I think the technology landscape is changing somewhat, and it's beneficial to companies that are well positioned to help in the building of these 3-dimensional architectures that exist, whether it's backside power distribution, which is effectively a 3-dimension architecture on the backside of the wafer or the advanced packaging, 2.5D and 3D packages, those get built by etch and deposition equipment.

是的。我認為——我在劇本中提到的這個評論，我認為人們正在接受，但這是即將到來的技術變化的蝕刻和深度強度。我認為技術格局正在發生一些變化，這對於那些有能力幫助建造這些現有 3 維架構的公司是有利的，無論是背面配電，這實際上是背面的 3 維架構晶圓或先進封裝、2.5 D 和3D 封裝，這些是透過蝕刻和沈積設備建構的。

And so as those parts of the market are kind of the outperformers because of what they do for power consumption and high power, high computation devices, what they're doing in terms of enabling these multichip packages. I would expect etching depth to continue -- would actually outperform WFE with those as the underlying technology trends.

因此，由於這些市場部分在功耗和高功率、高運算設備方面所做的工作，以及在支援這些多晶片封裝方面所做的工作，因此表現出眾。我預計蝕刻深度會繼續下去——實際上會超越 WFE，因為這些是基礎技術趨勢。

Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up for Doug. The inventory level has been pretty -- like you've been managing it really well. You're talking about an up cycle next year. Historically, you kind of start building inventory maybe a quarter or two before.

非常有幫助。然後是道格的快速跟進。庫存水準相當不錯——就像你管理得很好一樣。你說的是明年的上升週期。從歷史上看，你可能在一兩個季度之前就開始建立庫存。

Kind of curious, is it more unclear of the shape of the recovery next year? Or is it more the inventory management has gotten -- has changed and is much more efficient than it's kind of more like just in time.

有點好奇，明年的復甦形態是否更不清楚？或者說，庫存管理已經發生了變化，並且比及時管理更有效率。

Yes. I mean, you got to actually peel the onion back on inventory one level beneath just what's the total number to understand this. So a lot of the inventory, when you think back to when business turned down, a lot of it was in memory and specifically in NAND. And so a lot of the inventory we have, just to build tools that go into the NAND segment. And so you'll only really be able to move that inventory lower when NAND business ticks up, which obviously we think that will happen this year.

是的。我的意思是，你必須將庫存中的洋蔥剝皮，使其比總數低一級才能理解這一點。所以當你回想業務下滑時，很多庫存都在記憶體中，特別是在 NAND 中。我們擁有大量庫存，只是為了建立進入 NAND 領域的工具。因此，只有當 NAND 業務成長時，你才能真正降低庫存，顯然我們認為這將在今年發生。

So that's a little bit of a -- you've got to wait for that. Offsetting that, though, other things are strengthening. Obviously, you saw the guide at 4.3. And so you have to have components ready to build tools that go into those segments. So those are the two things that you have to think about relative to the total balance.

所以這有點——你必須等待。不過，其他事情正在加強，抵消了這一點。顯然，您在 4.3 處看到了該指南。因此，您必須準備好組件來建立進入這些細分市場的工具。因此，相對於總餘額，這是您必須考慮的兩件事。

Srvinas Pajari, Raymond James.

斯維納斯·帕賈裡，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thank you. Sort of follow ups at this point. Tim, on your comment about WFE growing next year, I'm just curious, either by market segment or by product segment, where would you say you have the best visibility? And where do you think there is still some uncertainty out there?

謝謝。此時的後續行動。提姆，關於您對明年 WFE 成長的評論，我只是很好奇，無論是按細分市場還是按產品細分，您認為您在哪裡擁有最好的知名度？您認為哪裡還存在一些不確定性？

Okay. Well, we'd start getting very close to giving a full 2025 outlook, if I go through all that detail. But I think that, obviously, some of our comments One is we believe NAND has been in a very prolonged down cycle. And so it's not too much of a stretch to say that we would see NAND WFE higher. We're not going to quantify that.

好的。好吧，如果我詳細介紹所有這些細節，我們就已經非常接近給出 2025 年的完整展望了。但我認為，顯然，我們的一些評論之一是我們相信 NAND 已經處於非常漫長的下行週期。因此，可以毫不誇張地說，我們會看到 NAND WFE 更高。我們不會量化這一點。

But again, higher and driven by these technology upgrades that I just talked a lot about. I think that we said that leading edge for logic, we continue to see quite strong.

但同樣，更高，並受到我剛才談到的這些技術升級的推動。我認為我們說過邏輯的領先優勢，我們仍然看到相當強大。

And with many of those investments targeted towards new technology pull-ins that help with performance and power consumption. And then finally, we think advance package. I think it's not a stretch to say that we believe advanced packaging I made the comment, it's gotten stronger in just the last 90 days. And so I don't see what would prevent that from continuing to trend higher as we move through 2025. And then we said China to lower. And so you're kind of like there's a third puts and takes. But in general, a lot of the things that are key to us, we think fed higher.

其中許多投資旨在引入有助於提高性能和功耗的新技術。最後，我們考慮預付套餐。我認為，說我們相信先進封裝並不誇張，我發表的評論在過去 90 天內變得更加強大。因此，我不認為什麼會阻止我們在 2025 年繼續走高。所以你有點像是有第三個選擇。但總的來說，我們認為很多對我們至關重要的事情都吃得更高。

Great. That's helpful. And then another follow-up, Tim. I guess -- on the tech transitions that you talked about, there are a lot of questions on NAND, et cetera, but I look at your product -- I mean, your revenue mix, logic and foundry is like 60% of your mix today quite different from what it used to be.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是另一個後續行動，提姆。我想——在你談到的技術轉型中，有很多關於NAND 等的問題，但我看看你的產品——我的意思是，你的收入組合、邏輯和代工大約佔你組合的60%今天與過去大不相同。

So you talked about things like backside Power GA, et cetera, increasing the intensity for you. I'm just curious, outside of just the deposition and etch intensity going up. How do you think about your market share? Because we hear about these tech transitions from some of your competitors as well. It looks like a lot of you are benefiting, but I'm just curious as to how you think about your market share? What is the implied market share assumption when you say you're going to outperform WFE next year?

所以你談到了諸如背面 Power GA 之類的事情，為你增加了強度。我只是好奇，除了沉積和蝕刻強度上升之外。您如何看待自己的市場佔有率？因為我們也從您的一些競爭對手那裡聽說了這些技術轉型。看起來你們很多人都受益了，但我只是好奇你們如何看待自己的市場佔有率？當您說明年的業績將超過 WFE 時，隱含的市佔率假設是多少？

Well, I think that in some of these areas, I talked about specifically when you think about what foundry logic, leading-edge foundry logic is really doing is it is pulling in nodes like gate all around. For us, that allows us to gain -- expand SAM and gain share in markets where we didn't previously compete. So every selective etch win for us is basically new market. ALD is expanding in new share market for us. So we do have opportunities where, again, we've -- I talked about transforming our product portfolio, and we've expanded the product portfolio to address those markets.

嗯，我認為在其中一些領域，當你思考代工邏輯時，我特別談到了前沿代工邏輯真正所做的事情是它正在拉動像門這樣的節點。對我們來說，這使我們能夠擴大 SAM 並在我們以前沒有參與競爭的市場中獲得份額。因此，對我們來說，每一次選擇性蝕刻的勝利基本上就是一個新市場。 ALD 正在為我們拓展新股市場。因此，我們確實有機會，我再次談到了轉變我們的產品組合，並且我們擴大了產品組合以應對這些市場。

And so -- for us, many of those are not only they're new wins and their share gain. And for those who've already been participating in those markets at prior nodes and prior technologies, you'd probably see a lot more replacement revenue versus actual share gain. So I think that is one thing that distinguishes Lam we're coming from a historically lower exposure to that particular segment. Advanced Packaging, again, very strong product portfolio for that. backside power, I think everybody knows we're extremely strong in terms of our positioning in copper plating.

因此，對我們來說，其中許多不僅是新的勝利，而且是他們的份額增長。對於那些已經在先前節點和先前技術上參與這些市場的人來說，您可能會看到與實際份額收益相比更多的替代收入。因此，我認為這是林的區別之一，我們來自歷史上對該特定細分市場的較低暴露。先進封裝再次提供了非常強大的產品組合。背面電源，我想每個人都知道我們在鍍銅方面的定位非常強大。

There's a lot more uses, you add more metal layers on to the backside of the wafer represents share gain of overall WFE when you see cases coming like that. So I think you're right to say that a lot of people are going to benefit from continued technology advancements and general equipment intensity increases overall. But we do think that then net position increases faster than many of the other segments, and therefore, land has an opportunity to gain share.

還有更多的用途，當你看到這樣的情況時，你在晶圓背面添加更多的金屬層代表了整個 WFE 的份額增益。所以我認為你說很多人將受益於持續的技術進步和通用設備強度的整體增加​​是正確的。但我們確實認為，淨部位的成長速度快於許多其他細分市場，因此，土地有機會獲得份額。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

史黛西‧拉斯貢，伯恩斯坦研究中心。

Hi, guys. First, I wanted to drill again a bit more into the China gross margin trade-off. So clearly, if WSC is growing and your share is going next year, but China is down, your China mix does get worse. And I know you don't want to guide gross margins, but do you think that the other drivers you have on gross margins can be enough to offset the negative mix from trend like mix went down to 25% of your revenue next year.

嗨，大家好。首先，我想再次深入探討中國的毛利率權衡。很明顯，如果 WSC 正在成長，明年你的份額會增加，但中國的份額下降，那麼你的中國組合確實會變得更糟。我知道你不想指導毛利率，但你認為毛利率的其他驅動因素足以抵消明年混合佔收入的 25% 等趨勢帶來的負面影響嗎？

Like, is there enough around the other drivers you have to try to offset that? I'm just -- I'm wondering if I should be thinking about gross margin as the floor is the trough and then growing from there with some of the other drivers? How do we think about that?

例如，其他驅動因素周圍是否有足夠的東西你必須嘗試抵消？我只是 - 我想知道我是否應該考慮毛利率，因為地板是低谷，然後與其他一些驅動因素一起增長？我們對此有何看法？

Yes. Stacy, listen, some of the things I pointed to, you have to think through it holistically. And part of it will depend on revenue levels. And obviously, I'm not going to guide specificity into next year. But we have done a whole bunch relative to pivoting the footprint of the company to be closer to where the customers' fabs are lower cost structure, more affordable supply chain, shorter freight distances.

是的。史黛西，聽著，我指出的一些事情，你必須全面思考。其中部分取決於收入水平。顯然，我不會在明年提供具體指導。但我們已經做了很多工作，將公司的足跡轉向更靠近客戶工廠的地方，那裡的成本結構更低，供應鏈更實惠，貨運距離更短。

I mean those things are going to be beneficial as we get into a growing top line, offset by some of that customer mix. I'm not going to give you specifics yet because I'm not sure exactly what revenue is next year, but I feel pretty good about our ability to continue to drive the operational side of gross margin improvement. And then the customer mix will be one of the things we're working to overcome. But I'm not going to give you enough specificity that you want right now. But certainly, we'll do that as we get into next year on the next call.

我的意思是，隨著我們的收入不斷增長，這些事情將會是有益的，但會被一些客戶組合所抵消。我還不打算向您提供具體細節，因為我不確定明年的收入到底是多少，但我對我們繼續推動毛利率改善的營運能力感到非常滿意。然後，客戶組合將是我們正在努力克服的問題之一。但我現在不會給你足夠的具體資訊。但當然，我們會在明年的下一次電話會議上這樣做。

Okay. And at a minimum, I guess, you do see revenues up at least, so that should be a positive.

好的。我想，至少你確實會看到收入增加，所以這應該是正面的。

Yes, it should be, Stacy. Yes.

是的，應該是這樣，史黛西。是的。

Got it. For my follow-up, I want to drill in a little of this NAND tech transition versus capacity. And I think I understand the idea that tech transitions are lower WFE, but you have a big installed base and your share is higher. From a dollar basis, what is better for you, a capacity-driven market or a technology transition market? I know you've said you're agnostic, but I don't -- I just don't see how that can be true. So like what am I missing?

知道了。在我的後續文章中，我想深入探討 NAND 技術轉型與容量的關係。我想我理解這樣的想法：技術轉型會降低 WFE，但你擁有龐大的安裝基礎，而且你的份額更高。從美元的角度來看，產能驅動型市場和技術轉型市場哪個對您更有利？我知道你說過你是不可知論者，但我不是──我只是不明白這怎麼可能是真的。那麼就像我錯過了什麼？

Well, I mean, I guess, when we talk about outperformance of WFE, then there's no doubt that tech transition market is better for us. I think that there's been a lot of questions. I think what we've been trying to address is perhaps some of the skepticism about the desire and need for the market right now to invest in significant additional capacity.

嗯，我的意思是，我想，當我們談論 WFE 的出色表現時，毫無疑問技術轉型市場對我們來說會更好。我認為有很多問題。我認為我們一直在努力解決的可能是對市場目前投資大量額外產能的願望和需求的一些懷疑。

And so whether that's true or not, that will be our customer's decision. But what we're saying is that regardless of within that, that's why we gave this two-thirds a bit to fill it sub-200 layers. We believe there is a need both technically and economically to move those forward to more advanced nodes.

因此，無論這是否屬實，這都將由我們的客戶決定。但我們要說的是，無論如何，這就是為什麼我們給這三分之二一點來填滿它不到 200 層。我們相信，從技術和經濟上來說，都需要將這些技術推進到更先進的節點。

I'm just asking if would your NAND dollars be higher in a capacity-driven market or an upgrade driven market. That's what I'm trying to understand.

我只是問你的 NAND 美元在容量驅動型市場還是升級驅動型市場中是否會更高。這就是我想要理解的。

It depends on the overall level of investment, Stacy, it's not a straightforward question. We did a decently higher share of spend when it's a transition or an upgrade year. but the industry obviously spends less. But our relative outperformance in a situation like that, which is largely what we see next year, we're going to outperform more. Then the rest of it, you have to get into the specific numbers, which obviously we're not going to do right now.

這取決於整體投資水平，史黛西，這不是一個簡單的問題。當過渡年或升級年時，我們的支出比例要高得多。但該行業的支出顯然減少了。但在這種情況下，我們的表現相對優異，這在很大程度上是我們明年看到的，我們的表現將會更好。然後剩下的，你必須輸入具體的數字，顯然我們現在不會這樣做。

Atif Malik, Citi.

阿蒂夫·馬利克，花旗銀行。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. My first question is on China WFE. It sounds like you're expecting China WFE to come down, but not as much as your peer that reported last week, they're expecting the China sales to come down 30% next year. Are the dynamics between lithography and Depth Edge that will help explain why lithography could be coming down faster or maybe something to do with your alliance business or star parts or anything. If you have any thoughts on that?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於中國WFE的。聽起來您預計中國 WFE 會下降，但不像您的同行上週報導的那麼嚴重，他們預計明年中國銷售額將下降 30%。光刻和深度邊緣之間的動態是否有助於解釋為什麼光刻可能會下降得更快，或者可能與您的聯盟業務或明星零件或其他任何東西有關。您對此有什麼想法嗎？

If, obviously, it's extremely hard, if not impossible, for us to compare what someone else is thinking versus what we think because we don't know what they're thinking for sure, to be perfectly honest. I would observe, though, if you look at how much perhaps some of our peers' growth in that specific geography grew versus what we did, the numbers are very different, right? And the lead times are very different between different tool types.

顯然，對我們來說，將別人的想法與我們的想法進行比較是極其困難的，甚至是不可能的，因為說實話，我們不確定他們在想什麼。不過，我會觀察到，如果你看看我們的一些同行在特定地區的成長與我們的成長相比，數字有很大不同，對嗎？不同工具類型的交貨時間也有很大差異。

And so something shipped sooner than others. And so you can't make a direct comparison because, frankly, I don't know exactly what somebody else has seen. But others have grown a lot more in that region than we have, and so you have to kind of factor all this stuff in.

所以有些東西比其他東西發貨得更快。所以你不能進行直接比較，因為坦白說，我不知道別人到底看到了什麼。但其他人在該地區的發展比我們快得多，所以你必須把所有這些因素都考慮進去。

I don't know, Tim, if you want to add anything?

我不知道，提姆，你是否想補充什麼？

No, no. I think it's just -- it's very hard to make those comparisons for all the reasons that Doug just mentioned the especially in terms of the rate at which people have been shipping at this point and lead times and so not much more we can say.

不，不。我認為，由於道格剛剛提到的所有原因，很難進行這些比較，特別是在人們此時的發貨速度和交貨時間方面，因此我們無法說更多。

And then my follow-up, Tim, I was positively surprised to see that one of your large memory makers in Korea is adopting Dry Resist for their 1C DRAM 6 generation process in under impression that maybe drive this happens when the high NA to come out. Have there been any changes in terms of the adoption curve for Dry Resist?

然後我的跟進者蒂姆，我非常驚訝地看到韓國的一家大型內存製造商正在其 1C DRAM 6 代工藝中採用 Dry Resist，因為印像中可能會在高 NA 出現時推動這種情況發生。 Dry Resist 的採用曲線有變化嗎？

Well, we -- I don't know how Dry Resist ever got intricately tied to high NA other than what we've said is when you get to high NA, we had believed that there likely is no other choice. But clearly, we've been working hard. There are -- to answer earlier, based on all of the benefits we've talked about with Dry EUV and dry UV processing in general, which is multiple steps. It's the underlayer, it's the resist, it's the dry develop. And in those cases, there's economic benefits from having to be able to shorten exposure.

好吧，我不知道乾燥抗性是如何與高 NA 錯綜複雜地聯繫在一起的，除了我們所說的，當你達到高 NA 時，我們相信可能沒有其他選擇。但顯然，我們一直在努力。根據我們之前討論過的乾式 EUV 和乾式 UV 處理的所有好處，我們可以先回答一下，這是多個步驟。這是底層，這是抗蝕劑，這是乾顯影。在這些情況下，縮短暴露時間會帶來經濟效益。

We've talked about Pattern Fidelity benefits. There's benefits from using the dry developer versus a wet process in terms of defectivity.

我們已經討論過模式保真度的好處。就缺陷率而言，使用乾式顯影劑相對於濕式顯影劑有好處。

And so I think that you just with each customer, you reach a point where they see enough of those benefits tipping over to where they make the change. And so it's not necessarily tied to any particular node. And so I think that I think that we'll see, over time, customers adopted different technology nodes.

因此，我認為只要與每個客戶打交道，他們就會看到足夠的好處轉向他們做出改變的地方。因此它不一定與任何特定節點相關。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到客戶採用不同的技術節點。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you. Sorry to ask about China again. But as you make these comments about December and next year, how are you thinking about the Commerce Department export controls? Have you had -- and I'm asking what you think the decision will be. But have you had conversations where you have some kind of general sense of what the restrictions may be? Or are you kind of guessing like the rest of us? And if you're guessing how are you making those guesses.

偉大的。謝謝。抱歉再次詢問有關中國的問題。但當您對 12 月和明年發表這些評論時，您如何看待商務部的出口管制？你有沒有——我想問你認為這個決定會是什麼。但是，您是否在談話中對可能存在的限制有某種大致的了解？或者你和我們其他人一樣猜測？如果你在猜測，你是如何做出這些猜測的。

Yes. I think that the view we've given you contemplates our best understanding and our best estimate of what we think will happen. And so I don't know if you call that a guess, an educated guess. I mean, I doubt all of you guys are just guessing you have sources of information. And so I think that that's just -- that's our view.

是的。我認為我們向您提供的觀點考慮了我們對我們認為將會發生的情況的最佳理解和最佳估計。所以我不知道你是否稱之為猜測，有根據的猜測。我的意思是，我懷疑你們所有人都只是猜測自己有資訊來源。所以我認為這就是我們的觀點。

And the best we can say right now is what we've said about our -- how we see China WFE both through the next quarter as well as into next year.

我們現在能說的最多的就是我們對中國 WFE 下一季和明年的看法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as you think about December, if China drops down to 30%, you've got double-digit growth ex China. And I mean -- first of all, am I going to literal and precise about that. And -- but if you are going to grow double digits ex China, kind of what gives you the confidence around that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當你想到 12 月時，如果中國下降到 30%，那麼除了中國之外，你會看到兩位數的成長。我的意思是──首先，我要從字面上和精確的角度來解釋這一點嗎？而且──但是如果你要在中國以外實現兩位數的成長，是什麼給了你信心呢？

I mean, Joe, it's the same thing we do every time we guide you with numbers. We understand what customers expect from us, what we think they're going to order what -- to the best of our ability every single region in the world is going to do every single customer, every single fab and so forth, we put it together the same every single quarter, and that's what we've just done.

我的意思是，喬，我們每次用數字指導你時都會做同樣的事情。我們了解客戶對我們的期望，我們認為他們會訂購什麼——世界上每個地區都會盡我們最大的能力為每個客戶、每個晶圓廠等服務，我們說每個季度都一樣，這就是我們剛剛所做的。

The only thing we've done incrementally here because there's been so much chatter about China is give you a number on China, which normally we don't do any geographic stuff. But the $4.3 million we just guided you to, we've gone through the same process we do every single quarter to put data together to support that.

因為關於中國的討論如此之多，所以我們在這裡逐步做的唯一一件事就是給你一個關於中國的數字，通常我們不做任何地理方面的事情。但我們剛剛引導您獲得的 430 萬美元，我們已經經歷了每個季度都會執行的相同流程，將數據放在一起以支持這一點。

Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

布萊恩·柯蒂斯，杰弗里斯。

Thanks for squeezing me in. I feel bad that Joe said no more on China because I had one more in China. But I'm just kind of curious, I think you come back to that to the beginning $250 million is the math that come out in December. I guess going into this, the expectation was that like the Chinese DRAM would be front-end loaded. And I guess you've seen. I think you recognize that is nonvolatile, that's come down.

謝謝你把我擠進來。但我只是有點好奇，我想你回到一開始，2.5 億美元是 12 月公佈的數字。我想進入這個階段，預期是像中國的 DRAM 一樣是前端加載的。我想你已經看過了。我認為您認識到這是非易失性的，已經下降了。

So I'm assuming that's less of a headwind. So I guess, roundabout way of saying such CSBG be down in December, it would seem like that would be the bulk of the $250 million that comes out. Just can you dial us in a little bit as to where -- what segment that headwind is in?

所以我認為這並不是什麼逆風。因此，我想，以迂迴的方式來說，這類 CSBG 將在 12 月下降，這似乎是 2.5 億美元支出中的大部分。您能否稍微透露一下逆風在哪裡？

Man, Blayne, I don't know if I can answer your question. Is it possible CSBG is down next quarter. Sure. It's possible. The relying component does attach to the specialty node stuff, which is obviously correlated to a certain extent with China, not only but elsewhere also.

夥計，布萊恩，我不知道我是否能回答你的問題。 CSBG 下季有可能下跌嗎？當然。這是有可能的。依賴組件確實依附於專業節點的東西，這顯然在一定程度上與中國相關，不僅與其他地方相關。

But there's other stuff going on in there that ties to upgrade cycles and utilization and so forth. I don't know if I'm helping you. I'm just kind of rambling here a little bit.

但其中還有其他與升級週期和利用率等相關的事情。我不知道我是否在幫助你。我只是在這裡閒聊一下。

It's fine. I just want to ask you also, I think the messaging on NAND is a lot more positive. I think people have gotten incrementally more negative on timing of NAND. Just kind of curious the timing that you'll see those upgrades. Obviously, you've had this headwind from the Chinese customer.

沒關係。我也想問你，我認為 NAND 上的信息要積極得多。我認為人們對 NAND 的時機越來越持負面態度。只是有點好奇你會看到這些升級的時間。顯然，你受到了來自中國客戶的阻力。

But do you expect that tailwind to be a tailwind kind of the rest of this calendar year? Or is it truly a '25 (inaudible)?

但您預計今年剩餘時間的順風車會是順風車嗎？或者它真的是 '25（聽不清楚）嗎？

No. I mean, we were speaking about that primarily from a 2025 perspective, if don't give any timing within that particular year. It's just, again, predicated on this idea that the down cycle has been quite long and the -- which has put a number of -- quite a large portion of the capacity at technology nodes that we think can be significantly improved for current uses through technology upgrades. And those are the conversations we're having with customers will give more on the timing once we have a better view of it as we move into early next year.

不，我的意思是，如果沒有給出特定年份內的任何時間安排，我們主要是從 2025 年的角度來討論這個問題。再次，基於這樣的想法，停機週期已經相當長，並且技術節點上的相當大一部分容量，我們認為可以通過以下方式顯著改善當前的使用情況：技術升級。這些是我們與客戶進行的對話，一旦我們在明年初有了更好的了解，就會提供更多關於時間的資訊。

All right. Thanks, Blayne. Operator, we will take one more question.

好的。謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，我們再回答一個問題。

Sure thing. Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

當然可以。克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes, thank you. I guess a question on DRAM. And not a little discussion on that heading into next year. What's your view on the trends you're seeing there? And again, have the -- there's been a lot of mixed signals on that. Has that changed in the last 30 days -- last 90 days for you?

是的，謝謝。我猜想是關於 DRAM 的問題。明年的討論也不少。您對那裡看到的趨勢有何看法？再說一次，在這方面有很多混合的信號。對你來說，過去 30 天——過去 90 天，情況有改變嗎？

No, Chris, it really hasn't changed in the last 90 days. You've got a product cycle in DRAM, DDR4, going to DDR5, you've got the high bandwidth memory that's going on there. And that's through a need for incremental equipment, we believe that grows again next year. I don't think too much has changed relative to our outlook in DRAM.

不，克里斯，在過去的 90 天內它確實沒有改變。你有一個從 DRAM、DDR4 到 DDR5 的產品週期，你已經擁有了正在進行的高頻寬記憶體。這是透過對增量設備的需求來實現的，我們相信明年這項需求會再次成長。我認為我們對 DRAM 的展望並沒有太大變化。

Okay. Just as a follow-up and there'll be one more close it out on one more China question. with what you said about China 30% of revenue exiting the year, is it safe to say by what always hold with the expectation for some of the other segments, Foundry Logic for NAND to grow next year that most likely that China comes in, if we look for the full year at below 30% -- below 30% of total revenue as we look in the whole year. Obviously, I know it depends upon what your total revenue looks like. But it feels like you're seeing growth elsewhere and probably not in China from the fourth quarterly level.

好的。作為後續行動，還會有一個關於中國問題的結論。根據您所說的中國 30% 的收入將在今年退出，是否可以肯定地說，根據對其他一些細分市場的預期，NAND 的 Foundry Logic 明年將增長，中國最有可能進入，如果我們預計全年收入佔比將低於30%——低於我們全年總收入的30%。顯然，我知道這取決於您的總收入。但從第四季的水平來看，你似乎看到了其他地方的成長，但可能看不到中國的成長。

Is that at least a rational way to think about it?

這至少是一種理性的思考方式嗎？

Yes, Chris, it's not unreasonable to be thinking about it that way. And frankly, like I said, we're not guiding 25 numerically yet. It's possible that China trends down below 30% for sure. it's too soon for us to get numerically specific on next year, but we will certainly do that on the call next quarter.

是的，克里斯，這樣想並不是沒有道理的。坦白說，正如我所說，我們還沒有給出 25 個數字的指導。中國的這一比例肯定有可能下降到 30% 以下。現在對我們來說明年的具體數字還為時過早，但我們肯定會在下個季度的電話會議上這樣做。

Operator, that concludes the call here. Thanks, everybody, for joining, and I'm sure we'll be talking to most of you as the quarter progresses.

接線員，通話到此結束。感謝大家的加入，我相信隨著本季的進展，我們將與你們中的大多數人交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。