使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation second quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions)
各位好,歡迎參加穆迪公司(Moody's Corporation)2026 年第二季財報電話會議。此刻我想提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音(接線員指示)
This call is scheduled to last approximately one hour. I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Shivani, please go ahead.
本次電話會議預計約一小時。現在我將把電話交給投資人關係主管 Shivani Kak。Shivani,請開始。
Shivani Kak - Head of Investor Relations
Shivani Kak - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you. Hello, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations at Moody's. This morning, we reported our second quarter results. The press release and today's presentations are posted at ir.moodys.com. We'll reference non-GAAP or adjusted measures. Please see the tables in our earnings release for reconciliations to US GAAP.
謝謝。各位好,感謝今天加入我們。我是穆迪投資人關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午,我們公布了第二季業績。新聞稿與今日簡報已發布於 ir.moodys.com。我們將引用非 GAAP 或調整後指標。請參閱我們財報新聞稿中的表格,以取得與美國 GAAP 的調節。
Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please see the safe harbor language in our earnings release and the risk factors and MD&A in our most recent Form 10-K and other SEC filings available on our website and the SEC's website. These factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Members of the media may be listening in a listen-only basis. With that, I'll turn it over to Rob.
今日發言可能包含依據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明,以及我們最新 Form 10-K 與其他可於本公司網站及美國證券交易委員會(SEC)網站取得之申報文件中的風險因素與管理階層討論與分析(MD&A)。這些因素可能導致實際結果與所明示或暗示者存在重大差異。媒體成員可能以僅收聽方式參與。接下來我把時間交給 Rob。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Shivani, and hello, everybody. Thanks for joining us today. I have the dreaded summer cold. So I pardon if my voice sounds a little bit gravelly today, but today's earnings are certainly making me feel much better. One quick update before we get to the results.
謝謝,Shivani,各位大家好。感謝今天加入我們。我得了惱人的夏季感冒。所以如果今天我的聲音聽起來有點沙啞,還請見諒;不過今天的財報表現確實讓我感覺好多了。在進入業績之前,先快速更新一件事。
In late June, we welcomed Christina Kosmowski, as CEO of Moody's Analytics. And Christina brings three decades of experience scaling technology and analytics businesses. And I have to tell you, just five weeks in, she's already moving with the pace and focus that MA's next chapter demands. And we're thrilled to have her, and I look forward to all of you connecting with her soon.
在 6 月下旬,我們迎來 Christina Kosmowski 擔任穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)的執行長。Christina 擁有三十年擴展科技與分析業務的經驗。我必須說,她上任僅五週,就已以穆迪分析下一篇章所需的速度與專注在推進工作。我們非常高興她加入,也期待各位很快能與她交流。
So turning to our results. Moody's delivered a standout second quarter with strong performance across the board. And at the enterprise level, we achieved 15% revenue growth, we grew adjusted operating income by 25%, expanded adjusted operating margin by 440 basis points to 55.3% and we grew adjusted diluted EPS by 31% to $4.68. And that's a great progression from the top line to the bottom line.
接著談我們的業績。穆迪第二季表現亮眼,各項業務均展現強勁表現。以集團層級來看,我們營收成長 15%,調整後營業利益成長 25%,調整後營業利益率擴張 440 個基點至 55.3%,調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)成長 31% 至 4.68 美元。這是從營收端到獲利端都非常出色的進展。
And I think what's most encouraging is not just the strength of the quarter, but how broad-based it was. In Moody's Investors Service, transaction revenue grew 34% and we rated more than $2 trillion of debt for the second consecutive quarter. And that reflects both the rebound in market activity as well as the enduring value of Moody's ratings in large complex financing markets. like we've got right now.
我認為最令人振奮的不只是單季的強勁表現,而是其廣泛性。在穆迪投資人服務(Moody's Investors Service)方面,交易型收入成長 34%,且我們連續第二季評等超過 2 兆美元的債務。這反映了市場活動回升,以及在當前這類大型且複雜的融資市場中,穆迪評等的長期價值。
MIS also delivered adjusted operating margin of 68.3%. That was up 410 basis points from last year. Moody's Analytics also continued to perform very well. ARR reached approximately $3.7 billion. That was up nearly 9% from the prior year, with trailing 12-month retention remaining strong at 95%.
MIS 的調整後營業利益率也達到 68.3%。較去年提升 410 個基點。穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)同樣持續表現非常出色。ARR 約達 37 億美元。較去年同期成長近 9%,過去 12 個月留存率維持強勁,達 95%。
MA also expanded adjusted operating margin, in this case, by 150 basis points to 33.6%. And these results reflect the continuing demand for our decision grade intelligence to help customers manage risk, to improve productivity and to make better decisions.
MA 的調整後營業利益率亦擴張,本季提升 150 個基點至 33.6%。這些成果反映市場對我們「決策級智慧」(decision grade intelligence)的持續需求,協助客戶管理風險、提升生產力並做出更佳決策。
And taken together, I really think this was a quarter that demonstrated the power of the Moody's model. A franchise that's capable of capitalizing on strong issuance activity, durable recurring revenue growth in analytics and disciplined execution across the company. Now we're raising select full year 2026 guidance metrics, including our rated issuance expectations and capital return guidance and by narrowing our adjusted diluted EPS range, we are increasing the midpoint of our range to $16.75. Now we'll talk about this more in the Q&A.
綜合來看,我認為本季充分展現了穆迪商業模式的力量。這是一個能夠把握強勁發行活動、在分析業務上實現穩健經常性收入成長,並在全公司範圍內嚴謹執行的特許經營。我們現在上調 2026 全年部分指引指標,包括評等發行量預期與資本回饋指引;同時透過縮窄調整後稀釋 EPS 區間,我們將區間中點提高至 16.75 美元。稍後在問答環節會再進一步說明。
More broadly, we continue to believe that the trends shaping our business reinforce our long-term opportunity. And capital markets are evolving, risks are becoming more interconnected, and AI is transforming workflows across industries. And in that environment, customers are increasingly turning to Moody's intelligence, our ratings, analytics and insights to make consequential decisions with greater confidence, and that's creating meaningful opportunities across our business, which we're translating into powerful operating leverage and earnings strength.
更廣泛而言,我們仍相信,塑造我們業務的趨勢正在強化我們的長期機會。資本市場持續演變、風險日益相互連結,而 AI 正在改變各行各業的工作流程。在這樣的環境下,客戶愈來愈依賴穆迪的智慧—我們的評等、分析與洞見—以更高信心做出關鍵決策,這正在為我們的業務帶來具意義的機會;我們也正將其轉化為強勁的營運槓桿與獲利動能。
So now let me turn to Moody's Investor Service. In this past quarter, Ratings delivered 25% revenue growth with broad-based strength across all asset classes. And global issuance was powered by the multiple funding deep currents that we've been highlighting over the last few years. And reflecting this, we upgraded our issuance growth outlook to mid-single-digit percent growth for the full year.
接下來談穆迪投資人服務(Moody's Investor Service)。在本季,評等業務營收成長 25%,且各資產類別均呈現廣泛的強勢表現。全球發行活動受到我們過去幾年持續強調的多重資金需求深層趨勢所推動。基於此,我們將全年發行量成長展望上調至中個位數百分比成長。
And this quarter really showcased a real breadth of funding drivers. That included refinancing, AI-related investment, private credit, digital finance, energy transition and emerging markets. And our comprehensive global coverage and our very deep targeted sector expertise really allowed us to capitalize on these drivers.
本季也真正展現了資金需求驅動因素的廣度。其中包括再融資、AI 相關投資、私募信貸、數位金融、能源轉型以及新興市場。我們全面的全球覆蓋與深厚且聚焦的產業專業能力,使我們得以把握這些驅動因素。
So I want to give you a few examples from the quarter to really bring this to life for you. So starting with AI and data center financing, and obviously, that's a topic that's dominating the headlines. but it is only one of several powerful drivers that's supporting issuance growth.
我想舉幾個本季例子,讓各位更具體地理解。先從 AI 與資料中心融資談起;顯然這是目前新聞焦點,但它只是支撐發行量成長的數個強勁驅動因素之一。
So Beacon Point DC is a very good example of the large data center transactions that we're rating across the US. That was a roughly $4 billion financing for a 350-megawatt hyperscale campus developed by Hut 8. And I think more importantly it illustrates how AI is becoming one of the largest capital formation stories in the global economy. It's creating financing needs that extend well beyond data centers into power and infrastructure and other sectors and supporting what we believe is a sustained pipeline of issuance activity.
Beacon Point DC 是我們在美國評等的大型資料中心交易之一,是很好的例子。這是一筆約 40 億美元的融資,用於 Hut 8 開發的 350 兆瓦超大規模(hyperscale)園區。更重要的是,它說明 AI 正成為全球經濟中最大的資本形成故事之一。它所帶來的融資需求遠不止資料中心,還延伸至電力、基礎設施及其他產業,並支撐我們所認為將持續存在的發行活動管線。
In fact, hyperscalers have already exceeded our 2026 forecast for issuance and issued more debt this year than in the last three years combined. And the opportunity stands well beyond hyperscalers, to construction, power, hardware chips and the broader infrastructure required to support AI at scale. Hyperscaler CapEx alone is expected to approach $800 billion in 2026 and grow meaningfully again in 2027.
事實上,超大規模業者(hyperscalers)的發行量已經超越我們對 2026 年的預測,且今年迄今發行的債務已超過過去三年合計。而機會遠不止於 hyperscalers,還包括建設、電力、硬體晶片,以及支撐 AI 規模化所需的更廣泛基礎設施。僅 hyperscaler 的資本支出(CapEx)預期在 2026 年將接近 8,000 億美元,並在 2027 年再度顯著成長。
And even excluding AI data center and hyperscaler activity, issuance still grew double digits year-to-date. In the second quarter of the issuances over $5 billion approximately 20% were tied to AI-related investment and supporting infrastructure. That means that the other 80% was very well diversified across a range of sectors.
即使排除 AI 資料中心與 hyperscaler 活動,年初至今的發行量仍呈現雙位數成長。在第二季,超過 50 億美元的發行中,約有 20% 與 AI 相關投資及支援性基礎設施有關。這意味著其餘 80% 在多個產業領域間分布相當多元。
Now private credit is another important tailwind with more than 40% growth in private credit related transactions, including structured finance mandates versus the second quarter of last year. And more than 110 new first-time mandates this quarter as investors and issuers demand more analytical rigor, transparency and independent insight.
此外,私募信貸也是另一項重要順風因素;相較去年第二季,私募信貸相關交易(包括結構性金融委任案)成長超過 40%。本季也新增超過 110 件首次委任案,因投資人與發行人對更高的分析嚴謹度、透明度與獨立洞見的需求日益提升。
In digital finance, our leadership and trust earned Moody's ratings the distinction as Best Digital Asset Ratings and Analytics Provider this quarter. and we're the first rating agency to deliver ratings on chain, and now we extended our token integration engine to Solana through Alphaledger embedding our ratings directly into tokenized fixed income assets on a leading public blockchain.
在數位金融領域,我們的領導地位與信任使穆迪評級(Moody's Ratings)於本季獲得「最佳數位資產評級與分析供應商」的殊榮。而且我們是第一家在鏈上提供評級的評級機構;如今,我們也透過 Alphaledger 將代幣整合引擎延伸至 Solana,將我們的評級直接嵌入於領先公有區塊鏈上的代幣化固定收益資產之中。
We've been building on our Canton deployment. This reinforces our network agnostic design, bringing our independent credit insights to where the markets transact. And we rated double-digit digital issuances globally this year.
我們一直在推進 Canton 的部署。這強化了我們的網路不可知(network agnostic)設計,將我們獨立的信用洞見帶到市場進行交易的地方。而今年我們在全球已對兩位數的數位發行案進行評級。
And while it is early, we're encouraged by the green shoots as we have more transactions in the pipeline than we have rated year-to-date. We also recently rated BlackRock's tokenized money market fund. That's the world's largest at $2.6 billion market cap, and it's a cornerstone of the tokenized liquidity stack as a stable point reserve and on cash -- on chain cash entry point.
雖然仍處於早期階段,但我們對初現的正向跡象感到鼓舞,因為我們管線中的交易數量已多於我們今年迄今已評級的交易。我們近期也對貝萊德(BlackRock)的代幣化貨幣市場基金進行了評級。該基金以 26 億美元市值成為全球最大,並作為代幣化流動性堆疊的基石,提供穩定的點位準備金,以及鏈上現金——鏈上現金的入口。
We're also a critical rating partner to innovatived transactions in the emerging markets. And this quarter, we rated a second emerging market CLO from the International Finance Corporation. That's similar to the one that we called out on our third quarter 2025 call. And we were again the sole agency on this unique transaction, which securitized corporate loans to borrowers in emerging markets, and it's helping the IFC and other multilateral development banks broaden access to institutional capital and mobilize more private sector investment.
我們也是新興市場創新交易的重要評級合作夥伴。本季,我們對國際金融公司(IFC)的第二筆新興市場 CLO 進行了評級。這與我們在 2025 年第三季電話會議中提到的那一筆類似。我們再次成為這筆獨特交易的唯一評級機構;該交易將對新興市場借款人的企業貸款進行證券化,並協助 IFC 與其他多邊開發銀行擴大機構資本的可得性,動員更多民間部門投資。
I'm also happy to share that we marked our reentry into the insurance-linked securities market in the second quarter. And we served as both credit rating agency and modeling agent on EUR100 million flood risk cap bond in the quarter. And this really, I think, exemplifies our One Moody's strategy in action, combining ratings and catastrophe modeling expertise to play a critical role in addressing the insurance protection gap which we recently estimated at $375 billion and by some estimates could be as high as $1 trillion. And like the other areas that I spotlighted, we are building pipeline here as well.
我也很高興分享,我們在第二季標誌著重返保險連結證券(ILS)市場。本季我們在一筆 1 億歐元洪水風險巨災債券(cat bond)交易中,同時擔任信用評級機構與模型代理(modeling agent)。我認為這確實體現了我們「One Moody's」策略的落地:結合評級與巨災模型專長,在縮小保險保障缺口方面扮演關鍵角色;我們近期估計該缺口為 3,750 億美元,而部分估計甚至高達 1 兆美元。而且如同我強調的其他領域,我們在這裡也正在建立交易管線。
And in Africa, where we own the largest rating agency on the continent, we were pleased to celebrate 30 years in the region this quarter. So a shout out to all of our colleagues there who are playing an important role in Africa, developing the growing debt capital markets.
在非洲方面,我們擁有該大陸最大的評級機構,本季也很高興慶祝在該地區深耕 30 週年。因此也向當地所有同仁致意,你們在非洲發展日益成長的債務資本市場方面扮演了重要角色。
And taken together, these examples really reinforce, I think, the same point, which is Moody's plays a critical role in global capital formation, and we continue to be exceptionally well positioned to monetize the massive funding deep currents around the world.
綜合來看,這些例子再次強化了同一個重點:穆迪在全球資本形成中扮演關鍵角色,而我們也持續處於極佳位置,得以將全球龐大資金需求的深層趨勢有效變現。
Now turning to analytics. ARR grew nearly 9%, reflecting strong second quarter execution and we're maintaining our high single-digit ARR growth outlook for the year. And we're embedding trusted decision grade intelligence directly into high stakes customer workflows. That's lending, underwriting, compliance and more. And that's really our sweet spot at the intersection of speed and trust and explainability and auditability.
接著談分析業務。ARR 成長近 9%,反映第二季執行強勁,我們也維持全年 ARR 高個位數成長的展望。我們正將值得信賴、可用於決策等級的智慧,直接嵌入客戶高風險的工作流程中。包括放款、承保、合規等更多場景。這正是我們的強項——位於速度、信任、可解釋性與可稽核性的交會點。
And during the second quarter, we made further progress in broadening how customers access Moody's Intelligence and how deeply it's woven into their mission-critical day-to-day workflows. So with Amazon, we brought Moody's connected intelligence directly into Amazon Quick, giving AWS customers access to our ratings and research and curated data on hundreds of millions of public and private entities without requiring users to leave Amazon's AI experience.
在第二季,我們在擴大客戶存取穆迪智慧(Moody's Intelligence)的方式,以及其在客戶關鍵日常工作流程中的嵌入深度方面,取得了進一步進展。例如與 Amazon 合作,我們將穆迪的連結式智慧(connected intelligence)直接帶入 Amazon Quick,讓 AWS 客戶可存取我們的評級、研究與精選資料,涵蓋數億家公私部門實體,且不需要使用者離開 Amazon 的 AI 體驗。
This quarter, we announced our sunset timeline for our on-prem modeling solutions in insurance, which means we plan for our remaining customers to migrate to our cloud-based intelligent risk platform over the next several years. And to further support this migration, we partnered with AWS to add the IRP to our AWS marketplace catalog and that enables our migrating customers to count their IRP spend towards their AWS cloud commit.
本季,我們公布了保險領域本地端(on-prem)建模解決方案的退場時間表,意味著我們計畫在未來數年內,讓剩餘客戶移轉至我們的雲端智慧風險平台。為進一步支持此移轉,我們與 AWS 合作,將 IRP 納入 AWS Marketplace 目錄,使正在移轉的客戶可將其 IRP 支出計入其 AWS 雲端承諾額度(cloud commit)。
With Microsoft, we launched our first AI skill on Microsoft 365 Copilot Cowork, and that enables agents to apply Moody's analytical frameworks and subject matter expertise. Not just retrieve content. And joint go-to-market activity is building momentum with more than 20 engagements globally and initial customer trials underway.
與 Microsoft 合作方面,我們在 Microsoft 365 Copilot Cowork 上推出了第一個 AI 技能(AI skill),使代理(agents)能套用穆迪的分析框架與領域專業。而不只是擷取內容。雙方的聯合市場推廣活動正累積動能,全球已有超過 20 個合作案在推進,且初步客戶試用也已展開。
We now also have more than 100 MCP and smart API connections being used and trialed by our customers, which is an encouraging signal of demand for our trusted intelligence delivered through AI platforms.
目前也已有超過 100 個 MCP 與智慧 API 連線正在被客戶使用與試用,這是市場對我們透過 AI 平台交付可信智慧之需求的正向訊號。
And together, these integrations led customers spend less time questioning output and more time acting on it while giving the industry the intelligence infrastructure to accelerate enterprise adoption. Now our massive company data state now covers more than 630 million entities and our proprietary ownership linkages remain one of the most heavily used data sets in KYC and across the company.
整體而言,這些整合讓客戶花更少時間質疑輸出結果、花更多時間採取行動,同時也為產業提供智慧基礎設施,以加速企業採用。目前我們龐大的公司資料資產已涵蓋超過 6.3 億個實體,而我們的專有所有權關聯(ownership linkages)仍是 KYC 以及公司內部最常被使用的資料集之一。
And that data advantage is translating into growth in KYC and compliance use cases helping customers reduce unnecessary screening alerts.
而這項資料優勢正轉化為 KYC 與合規使用情境的成長,協助客戶降低不必要的篩檢警示。
And to that end, our AI-powered screening solutions are helping drive an approximately 50% reduction in costly and time-consuming false positive alerts, and our customers are making high-stakes decisions that have little to no margin for error, which is why good enough data is not good enough for these kinds of use cases.
為此,我們的 AI 驅動篩檢解決方案正協助將昂貴且耗時的誤判(false positive)警示降低約 50%;而客戶所做的是幾乎沒有容錯空間的高風險決策,因此在這類使用情境中,「夠用」的資料並不夠用。
Now a recent competitive win in EMEA shows our strategy at work. And we had a global Fortune 500 home appliance maker that's where we displaced an established incumbent. And it wasn't just with one point solution for credit decisioning, but we brought together our company data, our credit models and our intelligence screening for broader third-party risk management.
近期在 EMEA 的一項競爭性勝利顯示我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們拿下一家全球《財富》500 大家電製造商客戶,並取代了一家既有的主要競爭對手。而且我們不只是提供單點的信用決策解決方案,而是整合我們的公司資料、信用模型與智慧篩檢能力,用於更廣泛的第三方風險管理。
But back in June, I attended Exceedance, which is our flagship insurance event, and it drew a record attendance of more than 600 leaders across the property and casualty insurance sector. And we announced further enhancements to our cloud-based intelligent risk platform, including our risk data lake, more high-definition models and new agentic AI capabilities plus the extension of our casualty solutions.
另外在 6 月,我參加了 Exceedance——我們的旗艦保險活動,吸引了超過 600 位產險(property and casualty)領域領導者,創下出席人數新高。我們也宣布對雲端智慧風險平台的進一步強化,包括風險資料湖、更高解析度模型、新的代理式 AI(agentic AI)能力,以及將我們的意外險(casualty)解決方案延伸擴展。
And I got to say, I came away feeling very encouraged by our position and opportunity with the global insurance industry. So I want to share a few recent proof points.
我必須說,我離開時對我們在全球保險產業的定位與機會感到非常振奮。因此我想分享幾個近期的佐證。
So first, our new capabilities enabled us to grow ARR by nearly 60% with a top three US auto and property insurer. And this win reflects strong demand for our geospatial AI integration into property underwriting and broader adoption across personal and business lines, along with continued volume growth. And this is a particularly important win because it's going to be a lighthouse customer that will support further expansion into the primary carrier market where historically, we've had less penetration.
首先,我們的新能力使我們在一家美國前三大的汽車與財產保險公司客戶中,ARR 成長近 60%。這項勝利反映市場對我們將地理空間 AI(geospatial AI)整合至財產承保的強勁需求,以及在個人與商業線別的更廣泛採用,同時也伴隨持續的量能成長。這是一項特別重要的勝利,因為它將成為「燈塔客戶」(lighthouse customer),支持我們進一步擴張至主要承保公司(primary carrier)市場——在該市場我們過去的滲透率相對較低。
Second, we expanded our relationship with one of the top insurers and reinsurers in the Lloyd's of London market, and we deepened our penetration into their workflows, including data preparation, pricing and regulatory reporting enabling us to grow ARR by 12% off of a multimillion-dollar base.
第二,我們擴大了與倫敦勞合社(Lloyd's of London)市場中一家頂尖保險與再保險公司的合作關係,並加深我們在其工作流程中的滲透,包括資料準備、定價與監管申報,使我們在數百萬美元的既有基礎上,ARR 成長 12%。
And third, in APAC, we more than doubled ARR with one of the world's largest life insurance and financial services groups. And this insurer now uses our credit value at risk framework as part of their investment in risk decisioning. It's supported by our credit models and economic scenarios and it's a great example of how we're helping leading insurers connect credit, macroeconomic and portfolio risk intelligence across their institutions.
第三,在亞太地區(APAC),我們與全球最大的人壽保險與金融服務集團之一的合作,使 ARR 超過倍增。該保險公司目前將我們的信用風險值(credit value at risk)框架納入其投資風險決策的一部分。此框架由我們的信用模型與經濟情境所支援,這也是我們如何協助領先保險公司在其機構內串聯信用、總體經濟與投資組合風險智慧的絕佳例子。
Now turning to banking. I also recently joined more than 400 customers at our Annual Banking Summit. And one message really came through clearly.
接著談銀行業務。我最近也在我們的年度銀行高峰會(Annual Banking Summit)與超過 400 位客戶一同參與。其中有一個訊息非常清楚地傳達出來。
And that's that banks are under pressure to make better decisions faster, but many remain constrained by fragmented data, disconnected systems and increasingly complex risk environments. And I think the conversations were really less about AI itself and more about how AI can actually deliver outcomes and improve lending and strengthen risk management and streamline compliance and ultimately, as I hear from our banking customers all the time, help them operate more effectively and more efficiently. That's exactly where we're focused, and it continues to create some attractive opportunities across our banking franchise.
而這就是:銀行正承受壓力,必須更快做出更好的決策,但許多銀行仍受限於資料分散、系統彼此不連通,以及日益複雜的風險環境。我認為這些對話其實較少聚焦在 AI 本身,而更多在於 AI 如何真正交付成果、改善放貸、強化風險管理並簡化合規;最終,正如我經常從我們的銀行客戶那裡聽到的,幫助他們更有效、更高效率地營運。這正是我們聚焦之處,也持續在我們的銀行業務版圖中創造一些具吸引力的機會。
And again, I want to give a couple of examples from the quarter here. So first, with a top three Southeast Asian bank, we moved from proof of concept to production on an enterprise-grade AI-enabled early warning solution spanning wholesale and commercial banking across 19 countries.
再一次,我想在此舉幾個本季的例子。首先,與一家東南亞前三大的銀行合作,我們將一套企業級、AI 賦能的早期預警解決方案,從概念驗證推進到正式上線,涵蓋 19 個國家的批發與商業銀行業務。
And what won the deal was governed explainable workflow orchestration, combining our proprietary data analytics and AI-driven narratives so that their bankers can spot and investigate counterparty risks earlier and with greater confidence. The result, 20% ARR growth was an already very important customer.
促成這筆交易的關鍵,是具治理機制、可解釋的工作流程編排,結合我們專有的資料分析與 AI 驅動的敘事,讓他們的銀行從業人員能更早、也更有信心地識別並調查交易對手風險。結果是:這位原本就非常重要的客戶,ARR 成長 20%。
Second, we expanded with a major regional bank in the Northwestern US turning a two-bank merger integration into a meaningful growth opportunity. And through sustained executive engagement, we cleared implementation hurdles, replaced legacy tools and help the combined institution modernize credit risk assessment at scale. And rather than becoming a cost synergy, we became a growth partner lifting ARR by 8% with a clear path to broader AI-enabled workflow adoption.
第二,我們與美國西北部一家主要區域銀行擴大合作,將兩家銀行合併整合轉化為一個具實質意義的成長機會。透過持續的高層互動,我們排除導入障礙、替換舊有工具,並協助合併後的機構以規模化方式現代化其信用風險評估。我們不僅僅成為成本協同的一部分,而是成為成長夥伴,使 ARR 提升 8%,並具備清晰路徑推動更廣泛的 AI 賦能工作流程採用。
So some great examples from ratings and analytics from the quarter, all contributing to exceptional second quarter results and further positioning us to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.
以上是本季在評級與分析方面的一些很好的例子,皆為卓越的第二季成果做出貢獻,也進一步讓我們站在更有利的位置,把握未來的機會。
So with that, Noemie, let me turn it over to you.
那麼,Noemie,接下來交給你。
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Rob, and hello, everyone. Echoing Rob, our second quarter results reflect impressive execution against the durable demand drivers we've been highlighting. Let's dive into the numbers, starting with analytics. MA delivered a very strong quarter with healthy recurring growth, disciplined investment and operating leverage.
謝謝你,Rob,各位好。呼應 Rob,我們第二季的結果反映了我們在先前強調的長期需求驅動因素上,展現出令人印象深刻的執行力。讓我們從分析業務開始,深入看看數字。MA 本季表現非常強勁,經常性收入健康成長、投資紀律嚴謹,並展現營運槓桿。
Over the past two years, adjusted operating margin has expanded by more than 500 basis points, while we have continued to invest in our highest priority growth opportunities.
過去兩年,調整後營業利益率已擴張超過 500 個基點,同時我們仍持續投資於最優先的成長機會。
The story in MA is consistent. Recurring revenue is growing, transactional revenue is shrinking by design and ARR and margin expansion remain the clearest indicator of underlying business performance. MA revenue increased 4% reported or 8% on an organic constant currency basis, following our recent divestitures that closed in the second quarter, and reflecting robust demand across the franchise.
MA 的故事一以貫之。經常性收入在成長,交易型收入按策略性設計而縮減,而 ARR 與利潤率擴張仍是衡量底層業務表現最清晰的指標。在第二季完成近期資產剝離後,MA 營收按報告口徑成長 4%,或以有機、固定匯率口徑成長 8%,反映整體業務版圖的強勁需求。
Recurring revenue grew 7% as reported or 9% on an organic constant currency basis and now represents 99% of MA revenue. Transactional revenue declined 72% year-over-year to about $10 million, consistent with the deliberate portfolio repositioning we've discussed previously. ARR ended the quarter at nearly 9% year-over-year growth and remains on track for high single-digit growth for the full year.
經常性收入按報告口徑成長 7%,或以有機、固定匯率口徑成長 9%,目前占 MA 營收的 99%。交易型收入年減 72% 至約 1,000 萬美元,符合我們先前討論過的刻意進行投資組合重新定位。本季末 ARR 年增接近 9%,並仍按計畫在全年維持高個位數成長。
The quarter reflected strong sales execution with proactive contract renewals, robust cross-sell and upsell activity across the portfolio as well as new logo wins.
本季反映出強勁的銷售執行力,包括主動的合約續約、整體投資組合中強健的交叉銷售與加購活動,以及新客戶(new logo)贏單。
Decision Solutions remains MA's primary growth engine, representing 44% of total MA ARR and delivering 10% ARR growth. Within Decision Solutions, KYC grew 13%, driven by deeper penetration within existing banking customers and expansion beyond financial services. A notable win this quarter where the new logo deployment of our investigation solution and company intelligence in a mission-critical government security application.
Decision Solutions 仍是 MA 的主要成長引擎,占 MA 總 ARR 的 44%,並帶來 10% 的 ARR 成長。在 Decision Solutions 之中,KYC 成長 13%,主要由既有銀行客戶的更深度滲透,以及向金融服務以外領域的擴張所驅動。本季一項值得注意的勝利,是我們調查解決方案與公司情報在一個關鍵任務的政府安全應用中,取得新客戶部署。
Banking ARR grew 10% with lending an important contributor, delivering mid-teens growth again this quarter. Customers are migrating to our new lending suite packages, generating meaningful uplift on renewal. As customers consolidate multiple workflows onto a common platform, we believe this deepens our role in their day-to-day decisioning processes, creating additional opportunities, cross-sell and long-term ARR growth.
銀行業務 ARR 成長 10%,其中放貸是重要貢獻者,本季再次實現中十位數成長。客戶正遷移至我們新的放貸套件方案,在續約時帶來顯著的提升。隨著客戶將多個工作流程整合到同一平台上,我們相信這將加深我們在其日常決策流程中的角色,進而創造更多機會、交叉銷售與長期 ARR 成長。
We anticipate the banking line of business exiting the year more aligned with the typical historical high single-digit ARR growth range.
我們預期銀行業務線在年底時,將更貼近其典型的歷史高個位數 ARR 成長區間。
Insurance ARR grew 9%, supported by strong demand for catastrophic data, models and underwriting solutions delivered through our intelligence risk platform. And a good example of that is a large specialty commercial insurer that has historically utilized on-premise modeling and is now piloting the IRP platform. What began as a modeling relationship has the potential to evolve into a broader platform deployment, illustrating how we create value in insurance, one platform with integrated data, analytics and workflows that increases customer value.
保險業務 ARR 成長 9%,受惠於透過我們的智慧風險平台(IRP)提供的巨災資料、模型與核保解決方案之強勁需求。一個很好的例子是:一家大型專業商業保險公司,過去一直使用地端(on-premise)建模,現在正試行 IRP 平台。原本始於建模的合作關係,有潛力演進為更廣泛的平台部署,說明我們如何在保險領域創造價值:以一個整合資料、分析與工作流程的平台提升客戶價值。
With less than half of our insurance customers fully transition to the IRP and following Santen announcements at Exceedance, we see a clear runway for continued growth, although the trajectory may not be linear.
由於我們的保險客戶中,尚未有一半完成向 IRP 的全面轉換,加上 Santen 在 Exceedance 的公告之後,我們看到持續成長的明確跑道,儘管成長軌跡可能不會是線性的。
Research and Insights ARR grew 6%, supported by demand for CreditView and an early momentum from Moody's OneView launched in April. OneView goes beyond bringing together our data research and analytics. It now embeds research assistant as an agentic context of that available across every company page, giving customers deeper insight while working more efficiently.
Research and Insights 的 ARR 成長 6%,受 CreditView 需求支撐,並且 Moody's OneView 於 4 月推出後帶來初期動能。OneView 不僅僅是把我們的資料、研究與分析整合在一起。它現在也將研究助理以代理式(agentic)的情境嵌入到每個公司頁面中,讓客戶在更有效率工作的同時,獲得更深入的洞見。
These migrations continue to generate attractive upsell opportunities while making it easier for customers to access a broader set of Moody's capabilities. Data and Information ARR grew 8% year-over-year, driven by continued demand for ratings data fees and Orbis data in noncompliance workflows.
這些遷移持續帶來具吸引力的加購機會,同時也讓客戶更容易存取更廣泛的穆迪能力組合。Data and Information 的 ARR 年增 8%,主要由評級資料費用以及 Orbis 資料在非合規工作流程中的持續需求所驅動。
In the second quarter, we expanded a long-standing relationship with the German government embedding Moody's data and AI-enabled capabilities into core tax administration workflows, audits, investigations, transfer pricing and risk assessment. In government, in particularly in EMEA were a source of double-digit growth within the data and information business.
在第二季,我們擴大與德國政府的長期合作關係,將穆迪的資料與 AI 賦能能力嵌入核心稅務管理工作流程,包括稽核、調查、移轉訂價與風險評估。在政府部門,尤其是在 EMEA 地區,是資料與資訊業務中雙位數成長的來源。
And the same dynamic is also visible across our corporate customers. The mega cap e-commerce and technology company we first highlighted several quarters ago, has more than doubled ARR since the end of 2024 and now is more than eight-figure relationships.
同樣的動態也可在我們的企業客戶中看到。我們在數季前首次提到的那家超大型市值電商與科技公司,自 2024 年底以來 ARR 已翻倍以上,如今已成為超過八位數規模的合作關係。
What began as a targeted credit decisioning use case has expanded into a broader workflow deployment, powered by company data, credit models and predictive risk analytics. This is a powerful illustration of the MA model, establish a foothold in a high-value workflow, demonstrate measurable customer outcomes and then expand as that workflow scales across business units, products and geographies.
起初是一個聚焦的信用決策用例,現已擴展為更廣泛的工作流程部署,由公司資料、信用模型與預測性風險分析所驅動。這有力地展示了 MA 模式:先在高價值工作流程中建立立足點,證明可量化的客戶成果,然後隨著該工作流程在各事業單位、產品與地理區域擴張而擴大合作。
Across banking, insurance, government and corporate markets, we're seeing a trend towards embedding Moody's into critical workflows rather than purchasing stand-alone products. And those relationships tends to be larger, stickier and create greater opportunities for expansion over time giving us confidence in both our ARR growth outlook and continued margin progression.
在銀行、保險、政府與企業市場,我們看到一個趨勢:客戶傾向將穆迪嵌入關鍵工作流程,而非購買獨立產品。而這些關係往往規模更大、黏著度更高,並隨時間推移創造更大的擴張機會,讓我們對 ARR 成長展望與持續的利潤率提升更具信心。
Turning to profitability. MA continued to deliver adjusted operating margin expansion and remains on track for full year margin guidance of 34% to 35%. As we simplify the portfolio and consolidate platforms, we're generating operating leverage while funding our top growth priorities. Benefits that both build and support continued margin progression toward our mid- to high 30s target by year-end 2027.
接著談獲利能力。MA 持續交付調整後營業利益率擴張,並仍按計畫達成全年利潤率指引 34% 至 35%。隨著我們簡化投資組合並整併平台,我們在資助最優先成長項目的同時,創造營運槓桿。這些效益將建立並支撐利潤率持續提升,朝向 2027 年底達成我們中至高 30% 的目標。
Switching over to MIS, rated issuance exceeded $2 trillion for the second consecutive quarter, up 33% year-over-year, 20% year-to-date. Despite the geopolitical volatility, issuers remain focused on accessing capital with constructive credit conditions, strong investor demand and continued financing needs across both corporate and structured markets.
轉到 MIS,評級發行量連續第二季超過 2 兆美元,年增 33%,年初至今成長 20%。儘管地緣政治波動,發行人仍專注於在具建設性的信用環境、強勁的投資人需求,以及企業與結構性市場持續的融資需求下取得資金。
Importantly, Q2 results were not driven by a single market dynamic. There was broad-based participation across asset classes. The diversity of issuance activity reflects the multiple secular and cyclical funding drivers we've discussed over the past several years. Revenue growth outpaced issuance growth in several key areas benefiting from favorable transaction mix and larger, more complex mandates.
重要的是,第二季的結果並非由單一市場動態所驅動。各資產類別皆有廣泛參與。發行活動的多元性反映了我們過去數年所討論的多重長期結構性與景氣循環性的融資驅動因素。在若干受惠於有利交易組合以及更大、更複雜委託案的關鍵領域中,營收成長超越了發行量成長。
At the same time, recurring revenue grew 6% to $369 million supported by our pricing initiatives, new mandates and growth in monitored credits. First-time mandates increased by about 45% and RMP for the 750 to 850 expected for the full year, reinforcing the health of our new business pipeline and supporting future recurring revenue growth.
同時,在我們的定價措施、新增委託案以及受監控信貸規模成長的支持下,經常性營收成長6%至3.69億美元。首次委託案增加約45%,且全年預期RMP為750至850,進一步印證我們新業務管線的健康度,並支持未來經常性營收成長。
Looking across the portfolio, Corporate Finance and PPIF benefited from a number of jumbo AI and infrastructure-related deals, while speculative grade and bank loan activity remained robust, with transaction revenue growth of 33% and 50%, respectively.
從整體投資組合來看,企業融資與PPIF受惠於多筆超大型AI與基礎建設相關交易;同時,投機級與銀行貸款活動仍然強勁,交易營收分別成長33%與50%。
Structured finance and financial institutions rounded out the quarter with steady ABS, RMBS and frequent issuer activity. Taken together, these results demonstrate the breadth of opportunity available to MIS and the value of our global franchise, sector expertise and market position. On profitability, MIS delivered impressive adjusted operating margin expansion that underscores the substantial operating leverage embedded in the business.
結構性融資與金融機構業務則以穩健的ABS、RMBS以及頻繁發行人活動為本季畫下句點。綜合而言,這些結果展現MIS可掌握的機會廣度,以及我們全球平台、產業專業與市場地位的價值。在獲利能力方面,MIS交出亮眼的調整後營業利益率擴張,凸顯該業務內含的可觀營運槓桿。
We absorbed significantly higher transaction volumes while maintaining analytical rigor and without commensurate cost increases, aided by ongoing technology investments and disciplined resource management. As we continue investing in the franchise, we believe we remain well positioned to convert revenue growth into attractive earnings growth over time.
在持續維持分析嚴謹度的同時,我們吸收了顯著更高的交易量,且未出現相應的成本增加,這得益於持續的科技投資與嚴謹的資源管理。隨著我們持續投資於平台,我們相信長期而言仍具備良好條件,將營收成長轉化為具吸引力的獲利成長。
We're raising our issuance outlook from low to mid-single-digit percent growth while maintaining our MIS revenue outlook. Markets proved resilient through the early April volatility supported by AI-related financing, infrastructure investment and FIG activity.
我們將發行量展望自低個位數百分比成長上調至低至中個位數百分比成長,同時維持MIS營收展望不變。在AI相關融資、基礎建設投資與FIG活動的支撐下,市場在4月初的波動中展現韌性。
Hyperscaler and large transactions drove strong issuance in the first half and are already reflected in results. Our increased issuance forecast is concentrated in PPIF and banking driven by more data center activity in PPIF and frequent banking issuers in FIG.
超大規模雲端服務商(hyperscaler)與大型交易帶動上半年強勁發行,且已反映在業績中。我們上調的發行量預測主要集中在PPIF與銀行業務,動能來自PPIF中更多資料中心活動,以及FIG中更頻繁的銀行發行人。
Because these issuers can carry lower average revenue yields given their pricing programs, the higher issuance outlook doesn't change our full year revenue expectations. As previously communicated, we're maintaining both MIS revenue and MA ARR guidance in the high single-digit range.
由於這些發行人因其定價方案可能帶來較低的平均營收收益率,因此較高的發行量展望不會改變我們對全年營收的預期。如先前所溝通,我們維持MIS營收與MA ARR指引於高個位數區間。
For MIS, we expect low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 as market activity slows through the summer. With Q4 revenue roughly flat versus prior year, consistent with normal seasonality. We expect that MIS margin will follow a similar seasonal pattern.
就MIS而言,隨著夏季市場活動放緩,我們預期第三季營收為低個位數成長。第四季營收則預期與去年大致持平,符合正常季節性。我們預期MIS利潤率也將呈現類似的季節性走勢。
For MA, we continue to expect ARR growth in the high single-digit range and margin expansion remains on track.
就MA而言,我們仍預期ARR成長維持在高個位數區間,且利潤率擴張仍按計畫推進。
For modeling purposes, we expect our tax rate for the full year to be towards the high end of the guidance range of 23% to 25%. On adjusted diluted EPS, we are raising the low end of the range by $0.10, bringing full year guidance to $16.50 to $17 or 12% growth at the midpoint. We are also expanding our restructuring program envelope by $100 million and expanding this program through year-end 2027.
就建模假設而言,我們預期全年稅率將落在23%至25%指引區間的高端。在調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)方面,我們將區間下緣上調0.10美元,使全年指引為16.50至17.00美元;以中位數計為12%成長。我們也將重整計畫的總額上限增加1億美元,並將該計畫延長至2027年底。
When completed, the full program is expected to result in annualized savings of $300 million to $350 million. This program extension expands our ongoing transformation agenda, driving further organizational health, capturing efficiencies from AI adoption across the enterprise and creating additional capacity to reinvest in our highest return growth opportunities.
完成後,整體計畫預期可帶來每年3億至3.5億美元的年化節省。此計畫延伸擴大我們持續的轉型議程,進一步提升組織健康度、擷取企業全面導入AI所帶來的效率,並創造額外能力以再投資於我們報酬率最高的成長機會。
Our capital priorities of the business are unchanged. Fund growth, expand margins and return excess cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, we have executed approximately $2.2 billion in share repurchases and we are raising our full year share repurchase guidance to be up to $3 billion in 2026.
我們的資本配置優先順序不變。支持成長、擴大利潤率,並將多餘現金回饋股東。年初至今,我們已執行約22億美元的庫藏股回購,並將2026年全年回購指引上調至最多30億美元。
Free cash flow was $688 million in the quarter, up 47% year-over-year. We're adjusting full year free cash flow guidance by about $100 million to $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, reflecting our latest working capital forecast and restructuring costs.
本季自由現金流為6.88億美元,年增47%。我們將全年自由現金流指引調整約1億美元至27億至29億美元,反映我們最新的營運資金預測與重整成本。
We are now on track to return more than 130% of free cash flow to shareholders this year, supported by proceeds from recent portfolio actions while preserving balance sheet flexibility to continue investing in growth. The through line is consistent. We're converting revenue growth into margin expansion and durable cash generation while reinvesting with discipline in our people, AI, data and workflow integration. And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.
在近期投資組合處置行動所得款項的支持下,同時保留資產負債表的彈性以持續投資成長,我們目前預期今年回饋股東的金額將超過自由現金流的130%。主軸一以貫之。我們正將營收成長轉化為利潤率擴張與可持續的現金創造,同時以紀律方式再投資於人才、AI、資料與工作流程整合。接下來,我們很樂意回答各位的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Manav Patnaik, Barclays.
Manav Patnaik,巴克萊。
Manav Patnaik - Analyst
Manav Patnaik - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to understand the guidance, the assumptions in the second half, maybe some cadence commentary on third and fourth quarter. I think I understand the explanations of mix, but just -- it feels like it's pretty conservative. I'm just trying to appreciate where you've drawn those lines.
謝謝。早安。我想更了解一下指引,以及下半年假設,或許也請談談第三季與第四季的節奏。我想我理解你們對組合(mix)的解釋,但只是——感覺上相當保守。我只是想理解你們是如何劃定那些界線的。
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yes. Thanks, Manav. So I frame the second quarter as us catching up to where we always expect it to be just a bit sooner than we planned. If you remember and go back to our April guidance, we had assumed a meaningful portion of the, call it, March air pocket will get recovered in the third quarter against what was a tough year ago comp.
是的。謝謝你,Manav。我會把第二季描述為:我們只是比原先規劃稍早一些,追上了我們一向預期應達到的位置。如果你回想並回顧我們4月的指引,我們當時假設所謂3月的「空窗期」中有相當一部分會在第三季回補,且相較於去年同期是個艱難的比較基期。
So what actually happened is that recovery came through in the second quarter instead, a record June issuance pulled that activity forward. So I guess I'd say at the halfway point of the year, we're sitting where our full year plan always expected us to be.
但實際發生的是,回補改在第二季就出現了,6月創紀錄的發行量把活動提前拉動。所以我想說,在年度過半的時間點,我們所處的位置正是我們全年計畫一向預期會到達的位置。
Now what that means for our issuance guidance, we're raising our outlook from low single digit to mid-single digit percent range growth. We're holding revenue guidance at high single-digit growth for the year.
這對我們的發行量指引而言,代表我們將展望從低個位數成長上調至中個位數百分比成長區間。我們則將全年營收指引維持在高個位數成長。
The issuance upside Meacham with a bit of mix that's a bit less rich than we'd expected. More of the growth is coming from data center, financial institution transactions and these tend to carry lower average yields given deal size and a bit less from areas like insurance issuers or CLOs or CMBS, which are typically more revenue accretive per dollar of issuance.
發行量的上行空間伴隨著一點組合變化,其「含金量」不如我們原先預期。更多成長來自資料中心、金融機構交易;由於交易規模與定價因素,這些通常帶來較低的平均收益率;而來自保險發行人、CLO或CMBS等領域的占比相對較少,這些通常每一美元發行量對營收的增益更高。
So the increase in volume doesn't translate on one-on-one into incremental revenue. So we're not raising the outlook. We continue to feel very good with where we are and what we told you at the beginning of the year in February. Q2 reflects the planned recovery in lending earlier than we expected. It does derisk the second half a bit.
因此,量的增加並不會一比一轉化為新增營收。所以我們沒有上調營收展望。我們對目前的狀況以及2月年初時告訴各位的內容仍然非常有信心。第二季反映了放款活動的計畫性復甦,只是比我們預期更早發生。這也在一定程度上降低了下半年的風險。
We can talk about the puts and takes as well. We're no longer meaning on an outside third quarter against what was a pretty difficult prior year comp. We think that's a meaningfully better, lower risk setup than what we were sitting three months ago. even though the headline full year revenue guidance hasn't moved.
我們也可以談談其中的利多與利空。相較於去年同期相當艱難的比較基期,我們第三季不再需要依賴外部因素來達成。我們認為,這比三個月前我們所面對的情境要好得多、風險也更低,即便全年營收指引的表面數字沒有變動。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And I just want to double click on that, Manav, because like Noemie said, I mean, we talked about this in the April call. And Obviously, we had some air pocket at the time, and we decided not to move the guidance. And we've caught a bunch of that up. We're right where we thought we were going to be for the year.
是的。Manav,我也想再深入確認一下,因為如Noemie所說,我們在4月的電話會議就談過這點。而且很明顯,當時確實有一段空窗期,但我們決定不調整指引。而我們已經把其中相當一部分追趕回來了。我們目前正處於我們原先預期今年會到達的位置。
And I think last year was pretty instructive as well. If you think about what happened last year, we had Liberation Day in April. We really had a last April, we did adjust guidance down and then we brought it back up. And we ended up finishing the year pretty much right on where we thought we were going to. So I think that has also, Manav, informed us this year where we thought we were going to be halfway through the year, and so we're holding guidance.
我認為去年也相當具有啟發性。如果你回想去年發生的事情,4 月有「解放日」。去年 4 月我們確實下調了指引,之後又把它調回來。而我們最終完成全年的結果,幾乎正好落在我們原先預期的水準。所以我認為這也同樣——Manav——讓我們在今年更清楚我們在年中時原本預計會落在哪裡,因此我們維持指引不變。
Operator
Operator
Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra,RBC 資本市場。
Ashish Sabadra - Analyst
Ashish Sabadra - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up on the same question on issuance. Just wanted to better understand what would be, as you mentioned, the puts and takes going forward, what could provide upside. You obviously talked about some of the pull forward into 2Q, but are you also assuming a more conservative approach just given the geopolitical uncertainty and then maybe on the same line, how do you think about these post mandate? You talked about that being up 45%. How could that provide upside also to the numbers? Thanks.
謝謝讓我提問。我想就同一個關於發行(issuance)問題再追問一下。想更清楚了解你提到的未來的利多與利空因素(puts and takes),有哪些可能帶來上行空間。你們顯然談到有些需求拉到第二季,但你們是否也因地緣政治不確定性而採取更保守的假設?另外同樣脈絡下,你們如何看待這些「mandate 之後」的情況?你提到那部分成長了 45%。這又可能如何為數字帶來上行?謝謝。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Ashish, thanks. I'm happy to talk about kind of puts and takes. And obviously, there are some variables here. We're in a complex operating environment. But there's a few things that I think could add to the upside.
好的,Ashish,謝謝。我很樂意談談所謂的利多與利空因素。而且很明顯,這裡面有一些變數。我們正處於一個複雜的營運環境。但我認為有幾件事可能帶來上行。
So this would be tailwinds for us. If we see kind of a sustained pickup in M&A activity, obviously, that's going to be good. Obviously, Noemie talked about us moderating our assumptions for hyperscaler and data center issuance through the second half of the year.
這些對我們而言會是順風。如果我們看到併購(M&A)活動持續回升,顯然會是利多。同樣地,Noemie 提到,我們已經在下半年對 hyperscaler 與資料中心的發行假設做了較為溫和的調整。
But if it runs hotter than what we've already built into our issuance guidance, then that's going to be some upside. And we know that there is multiyear demand, and we're happy to kind of double-click on the hyperscaler stuff in a bit.
但如果實際熱度高於我們已納入發行指引的假設,那就會帶來一些上行。而我們也知道這是多年期的需求;稍後我們也很樂意再更深入(double-click)談 hyperscaler 的部分。
If inflation remains under control. And if we actually get a rate cut, that could trigger some incremental opportunistic refinancing. We've got some very big maturity walls now sitting out not just '27 but really into '28.
如果通膨維持受控,而且如果真的降息,可能會觸發一些額外的、機會型的再融資。我們現在有非常大的到期高峰(maturity walls),不只是落在 2027 年,實際上延伸到 2028 年。
But two things, Ashish, I do want to note here as, I think, possible tailwinds for us. One, we're watching high-yield spreads. And our original assumption for the year was that they were going to widen modestly into the second half of the year.
但有兩點,Ashish,我想在這裡特別指出,我認為可能是我們的順風。第一,我們在觀察高收益(high-yield)利差。我們年初對今年的原始假設是:高收益利差會在下半年小幅走寬。
I mean there's still -- and there's actually still very tight by historical averages and our spec-grade default rate outlook continues to decline. So that tells me there may be some support for tire spreads further into the year, which may provide greater support for leveraged finance issuance than we've been forecasting, right? So we'll see.
我的意思是——目前其實仍然相較歷史平均非常緊,而我們對投機級(spec-grade)違約率的展望也持續下修。所以這告訴我,利差在今年後續可能仍有支撐,這或許會對槓桿融資(leveraged finance)發行提供比我們預測更強的支撐,對吧?所以我們會再觀察。
The other thing I want to flag, Ashish, is, there's a seasonality angle here that I think many of you are very familiar with. And issuance is historically skewed to the first half of the year. In fact, if you go back to the period from 2015 to 2025, roughly 55% of full year issuance came in the first half. And so that would be 45% in the back half. And this year, we expect that mix to be shifted more to the first half of the year, kind of in the high 50s. Again, because of the things that Noemie called out, particularly around the pull forward of the hyperscaler issuance and some of the frequent FIG issuance.
另外一點我想提醒你,Ashish,這裡還有季節性因素,我想你們很多人都很熟悉。歷史上發行量偏向集中在上半年。事實上,如果回看 2015 到 2025 年期間,全年發行量約有 55% 發生在上半年。也就是下半年約 45%。而今年我們預期這個比例會更偏向上半年,大概落在接近 60% 的高位。同樣是因為 Noemie 提到的因素,特別是 hyperscaler 發行的提前,以及一些較頻繁的 FIG 發行。
But if conditions hold, it's possible that we see a first half, second half split, that looks more like that historical pattern. And if so, that means that there would be some more upside for the second half. And I'd be remiss if I don't acknowledge maybe a few of the risks that we're focused on.
但如果市場條件維持,第一、第二半年分布有可能更接近歷史型態。若是如此,就代表下半年會有更多上行空間。另外,如果我不提幾個我們關注的風險,那就不周全了。
Obviously, headline risk. It still exists out there, and that can trigger some risk off windows. We saw that actually at the beginning of July in the high-yield market. And so we're just keeping an eye on that as well as any I think, extended disruption to global energy flows that may put more pressure on inflation expectations. and potentially lead companies to defer M&A.
顯然,新聞標題風險(headline risk)。它仍然存在,並可能觸發市場轉向避險(risk-off)的窗口期。我們其實在 7 月初的高收益市場就看到了。因此我們也在留意這點,以及任何我認為可能對全球能源流動造成的延長性干擾,這可能對通膨預期施加更大壓力,並可能導致企業延後併購。
And then I think Noemie also kind of noted the second half of '25 is also a tough comp. It was a very robust second half of the year last year, and so that's also informing the guide. But net-net, I think we have a very constructive environment heading into the second half of the year.
另外我想 Noemie 也提到,2025 年下半年也是一個比較艱難的比較基期(tough comp)。去年下半年非常強勁,因此這也影響了我們的指引。但整體而言(net-net),我認為我們在進入下半年時,環境仍相當具建設性。
Operator
Operator
Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.
Toni Kaplan,摩根士丹利。
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Toni Kaplan - Analyst
Thanks so much. I was wondering if you could talk about how much of an uplift you're seeing from NCP adoption right now? And how we should think about it as we go forward, should this continue to be a positive driver as more companies adopt MCP or well lapping sort of the initial uptake of it, great, tough comps for you? And everyone who maybe will have already wanted it, will have adopted it? Just how should we think about the dynamics there going forward?
非常感謝。我想請教你們目前從 NCP 採用中看到多少提升(uplift)?以及往後我們應該如何看待:隨著更多公司採用 MCP,這是否會持續成為正向驅動因素?還是說在初期導入之後,你們會面臨較艱難的比較基期?以及可能想要的人都已經採用了?往後這些動態應該怎麼看?
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thanks for the question, Toni. As you heard from our prepared remarks, we've got some very good traction with customers, both buying and trialing our intelligence through MCPs and smart APIs. We've also got, I think, an encouraging mix. Some of the very big banks are accounting for some of their early paid customers for all of this.
好的。謝謝你的問題,Toni。如同你在我們事先準備的發言中聽到的,我們在客戶端取得了很好的進展,客戶透過 MCP 與智慧 API 購買並試用我們的智慧內容(intelligence)。我認為我們也看到一個令人鼓舞的組合。一些非常大型的銀行,已成為這整套方案的早期付費客戶的一部分。
So that is encouraging. And I would say there's kind of five, so far -- it's early, but five primary content sets that are driving a lot of the demand. We've got the AI-ready research, entity data, news, economic data and our credit models. And as you said, we're seeing a real willingness to pay for this.
所以這是令人鼓舞的。我會說目前——還在早期——有五個主要內容集(content sets)正在驅動大量需求。包括 AI-ready 研究、實體(entity)資料、新聞、經濟資料,以及我們的信用模型。而如你所說,我們確實看到客戶願意為此付費。
And I would say that going forward, I think you're going to see us increasingly focused on what I'm going to call kind of agentic assembly and delivery of our connected intelligence where we've got the opportunity to be more integral to customer workflows than just through MCPs and smart APIs.
我會說展望未來,我認為你會看到我們愈來愈聚焦在我所稱的「代理式(agentic)的組裝與交付」——也就是交付我們的連結式智慧(connected intelligence);在這方面,我們有機會比僅透過 MCP 與智慧 API 更深入地嵌入客戶工作流程。
And that's something that Christina is focused on. So I think the bottom line is, Toni, good momentum. We've got good runway. We have good pipeline. And I think there's an opportunity to go from the early adoption of MCPs and smart APIs for our content to this idea of connected intelligence, agentic connected intelligence.
而這是 Christina 正在專注的方向。所以我認為結論是,Toni,我們動能良好。我們有很好的成長跑道。我們有很好的管線。而且我認為有機會從 MCP 與智慧 API 對我們內容的早期採用,進一步走向這個「連結式智慧、代理式連結式智慧」的概念。
And I think that's a very interesting opportunity for us that's got some legs.
我認為這對我們而言是一個非常有意思、而且後勁十足的機會。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Meuler, Baird.
Jeff Meuler,Baird。
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Jeffrey Meuler - Analyst
Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Rob, could you just kind of talk through how you're thinking about the deep currents on a multiyear basis, especially the private credit activity monetization build for you as well as the broader infrastructure build-out. Just how do you think they build on a multiyear basis? And just what risks are you monitored and managing to on those deep currents? Thank you.
是的,謝謝。早安。Rob,你能否談談你如何以多年期的角度思考這些深層趨勢(deep currents),特別是私募信貸(private credit)活動的變現(monetization)對你們的建置,以及更廣泛的基礎設施建置?你如何看待它們在多年期的累積與發展?另外,針對這些深層趨勢,你們正在監控與管理哪些風險?謝謝。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thanks for the question. So we started talking about -- we were -- I was trying to think about when we first started talking about these funding deep currents on the horizon. It was at least a couple of years ago. And we're really seeing that.
是的。謝謝你的提問。所以我們開始談到——我們當時——我一直在想我們最早是什麼時候開始談論這些在地平線上浮現的資金供給深層趨勢。至少是幾年前了。而我們現在真的正在看到這些趨勢。
And obviously, we've got this, I'd say, relatively new deep current with all of the AI infrastructure. But as we talked about, there's a lot more than that. And so if you just step back and think about what's going on in the world, there are massive infrastructure financing needs.
而且很明顯地,我們有一股我會說相對較新的深層趨勢,來自所有 AI 基礎設施。但如同我們談到的,遠不只如此。因此如果你退一步看世界正在發生什麼,就會看到龐大的基礎設施融資需求。
And this isn't just data centers and everything related to it but it's also related to good old-fashioned infrastructure. BlackRock had a number that was something like $68 trillion of infrastructure funding by 2040. And the real, I think, challenge around the world is that governments don't have a lot of fiscal space. So that means that you've got to have the public and private markets playing a very important role in funding all of this.
而這不只是資料中心及其相關的一切,也與傳統的基礎建設有關。貝萊德(BlackRock)曾提出一個數字,大約是到 2040 年需要約 68 兆美元的基礎設施資金。而我認為全球真正的挑戰在於,各國政府沒有太多的財政空間。因此這意味著,公共市場與私人市場必須在為這一切提供資金方面扮演非常重要的角色。
And if you think about it, so it's I'd say, traditional infrastructure, a major theme, AI-driven infrastructure, energy transition, let's not forget about that military buildups around the world. And then, of course, private credit is a funding mechanism for a lot of this. And there are drivers for private credit. And I would say, first of all, private credit is about to -- is pushing into retailization, right?
如果你想一想,我會說,傳統基礎建設是一個重大主題、AI 驅動的基礎設施、能源轉型——別忘了這點——以及全球各地的軍備擴張。然後,當然,私募信貸是其中許多項目的融資機制。而私募信貸也有其驅動因素。我會說,首先,私募信貸正要——正推進到零售化(retailization),對吧?
That's -- and I think as private credit pushes into retail markets, that's going to drive a need for greater transparency, a common language for risk assessment, valuation consistency. You've got the NAIC engaged in some regulatory modernization and overhauling its investment framework to address this shift towards complex structured private assets that insurance companies are investing in. So I think there's some good tailwinds behind private credit.
而且我認為,當私募信貸推進到零售市場時,將會帶動對更高透明度、風險評估的共同語言、以及估值一致性的需求。你也看到 NAIC 正在推動一些監理現代化,並全面調整其投資框架,以因應保險公司投資於複雜結構型私募資產的這種轉變。所以我認為私募信貸背後有一些不錯的順風。
And I would also say that private credit went through a little bit of a correction this past -- these last few months. And I think that's been a good thing for the private credit market. Investors became a little bit more circumspect that probably tightened up underwriting and some of the structures. And I think ultimately, that is good for the sustainability of private credit growth trends.
我也會說,私募信貸在過去——這幾個月經歷了一點修正。而我認為這對私募信貸市場是件好事。投資人變得更為審慎,這可能使承銷標準以及部分結構有所收緊。而我認為最終這有利於私募信貸成長趨勢的可持續性。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.
Jeff Silber,BMO 資本市場。
Jeffrey Silber - Analyst
Jeffrey Silber - Analyst
Thanks so much. I wanted to go back to MIS. You mentioned a couple of times about the lower yield on some of the data center financing and the related financing. Is that because it's moving more towards frequent issuers? Or are there different fee structures? If you can give us a little color on that, that would be great.
非常感謝。我想回到 MIS。你提到過幾次,某些資料中心融資及相關融資的收益率較低。這是因為它更偏向於常態性發行人(frequent issuers)嗎?還是因為費用結構不同?如果你能稍微補充一些背景說明,那就太好了。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Jeff, thanks for the question. And I would say this stuff comes into the rating agency in all different ways. It comes in through corporate finance. We see it through the big hyperscaler issuance, those hyperscalers, as you can understand, have become very frequent issuers. It comes through our project and infrastructure finance area. It comes through, in some cases, structured finance and CMBS.
是的,Jeff,謝謝你的提問。我會說,這些案子以各種不同方式進到評等機構。它會透過公司金融進來。我們也會透過大型超大規模雲端業者(hyperscaler)的發行看到;如你所理解,這些 hyperscaler 已經成為非常常態性的發行人。它也會透過我們的專案與基礎設施融資部門進來。在某些情況下,也會透過結構型融資與 CMBS。
So it depends kind of who the issuers are, the complexity of the structure. When we see big frequent issuers doing big investment-grade bond deals, like with any other investment-grade frequent issuer, that tends to be revenue mix unfriendly when we see complex structures sometimes in project finance and in CMBS, that tends to be revenue mix friendly.
所以這取決於發行人是誰、以及結構的複雜度。當我們看到大型常態性發行人做大型投資級債券交易時,就像任何其他投資級常態性發行人一樣,這往往對收入組合不太有利;而當我們在專案融資與 CMBS 中看到有時較複雜的結構時,這往往對收入組合較有利。
And we also have a rating assessment service. And so sometimes, the issuers in project infrastructure finance will come to us to get a view on their proposed capital structure, and that presents a few different monetization opportunities for us for any given particular issuance. So that tends to be a revenue mix friendly.
我們也有評等評估服務。因此有時在專案基礎設施融資領域的發行人會來找我們,請我們就其擬議的資本結構提供看法,而這會為我們在特定發行案上帶來幾種不同的變現機會。因此這通常對收入組合是有利的。
Operator
Operator
Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.
Curtis Nagle,美國銀行。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much. Maybe just turning to MA for a bit thinking about the organic growth, a nice number in Q2 at 8%. I guess for the kind of the remainder of the year and thinking about the sequencing, is that a sustainable rate? Could we perhaps see an acceleration on product road map picking up or easier comps? And how should we think through that?
很好。非常感謝。也許把焦點轉到 MA,談一下有機成長;第二季 8% 是個不錯的數字。我想問的是,對於今年剩餘時間以及成長節奏的安排來看,這樣的速度可持續嗎?我們是否可能看到產品路線圖加速推進,或是因為比較基期更容易而出現加速?我們應該如何看待?
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So rounding up to 9%, Curtis, for the quarter. And obviously, we feel good about the momentum there. I want to caution a little bit against extrapolating that acceleration going forward, we continue to -- we didn't change our guidance. We continue to call for high single-digit ARR growth.
是的。Curtis,這一季四捨五入接近 9%。而且很明顯,我們對那股動能感到樂觀。但我想稍微提醒,不要把這種加速直接外推到未來;我們仍然——我們沒有調整我們的指引。我們仍然預期 ARR 將維持高個位數成長。
I think it's worth remembering that analytics sales have always really been more heavily weighted to the back half of the year, particularly the fourth quarter, and that's just given the rhythm of enterprise budgeting and renewal cycles.
我認為值得記住的是,分析(analytics)銷售一向更偏向於下半年,特別是第四季,這主要是由於企業預算編列與續約週期的節奏所致。
And so this year is no different, and we're building a real pipeline of opportunities going into the end of the year. But time -- obviously, time will tell. And I also would note that we have a new leader of MA, she's been in the seat five weeks, and she's doing exactly what you wanted to do. taking a very close look at our go-to-market execution and sales productivity and where we can sharpen the model further.
因此今年也不例外,我們正在為年底建立一個扎實的機會管線。但時間——顯然——會給出答案。另外我也要提到,我們有一位新的 MA 負責人,她上任五週,而她正在做你希望她做的事:非常仔細地檢視我們的 go-to-market 執行、銷售生產力,以及我們可以在哪些地方進一步把模型打磨得更銳利。
But I would say there are some things that are supporting this growth, just at a very high level, you've heard us talk about lending. That's a great growth story, and we've got the migration from credit lens into our new AI-enabled lending suite. That's a theme I think we're going to see throughout the year.
但我會說,從很高的層面來看,有一些因素正在支撐這個成長;你們聽我們談過放貸(lending)。那是一個很好的成長故事,而且我們正把客戶從 Credit Lens 遷移到我們新的 AI 賦能放貸套件。我認為這會是我們今年會持續看到的一個主題。
In insurance, you heard my enthusiasm about what we're doing around insurance and it's not just around the further migration of our customers from on-prem into our cloud-based IRP. That's a great monetization pathway for us.
在保險方面,你們也聽到我對我們在保險領域所做事情的熱忱;而且不只是推動客戶進一步從地端(on-prem)遷移到我們雲端化的 IRP。那對我們而言是一條很好的變現路徑。
Lots of new high-definition models sitting on that platform that customers are now consuming but also our extension really into casualty. And that market has been underserved historically. We've gotten a lot of interest from the casualty market. We just recently formed a casualty steering group with the biggest players in casualty insurance. And so I think that's -- I feel good about the product road map there.
在那個平台上有許多新的高解析度模型,客戶現在正在使用;同時我們也真正延伸到意外險(casualty)。而那個市場過去一直相對未被充分服務。我們已經從意外險市場獲得大量關注。我們最近也與意外險領域最大的業者成立了一個意外險指導小組。因此我認為——我對那裡的產品路線圖感到樂觀。
And then, of course, we've got two other things I'd say that are supporting growth. One is around our solution for KYC, customer onboarding and monitoring and compliance that we're rolling out to corporate customers.
然後,當然,我會說還有另外兩件事在支撐成長。其中之一是我們針對 KYC、客戶開戶與監控、以及合規的解決方案,我們正在把它推向企業客戶。
So that's for customers who need a kind of a less heavy-duty solution than financial institutions, and we've got interesting sales that we've spotlighted in the past and a good pipeline. And then we've got the migration of customers from our CreditView to our -- CreditView research platform to our Moody's OneView platform. And this is the ability to consume -- Noemie mentioned it consume a lot more of our content in one place enabled by AI and agentic capabilities.
也就是針對那些需要一種相較金融機構而言不那麼「重裝」的解決方案的客戶;我們過去也聚焦展示過一些有意思的銷售案例,而且目前有不錯的機會管線。另外,我們也在推動客戶從 CreditView——CreditView 研究平台——遷移到我們的 Moody's OneView 平台。這讓客戶能夠——如 Noemie 提到的——在同一個地方消費更多我們的內容,並由 AI 與代理式(agentic)能力所驅動。
So all of that together is supporting kind of the growth theme that you're seeing across MA.
因此,所有這些因素加在一起,都在支撐你在 MA 各項業務中看到的那種成長主題。
Operator
Operator
Surinder Thind, Jefferies.
Surinder Thind,Jefferies。
Surinder Thind - Analyst
Surinder Thind - Analyst
Thank you. Just following up on M&A. Just any color on maybe some of the key initiatives that Christina might be looking to pursue at this point? I think you mentioned go-to-market execution and sales productivity. But also any revisiting of the tech stack or anything like that? And then maybe what that would potentially mean for if there's -- would we be entering a period of accelerated investment or anything like that?
謝謝。我想接著追問一下併購(M&A)。能否分享一些看法:Christina 目前可能會著手推進哪些關鍵舉措?我想你提到過 go-to-market(上市/商業化)執行與銷售生產力。另外,是否也會重新檢視技術堆疊(tech stack)或類似事項?再者,這可能意味著我們是否會進入一段加速投資的期間之類的?
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hey, Surinder, welcome to the call. I hope you gathered from my opening remarks that we are very excited about Christina joining us and experience and perspective that she brings to us. And as I said, she's got three decades of scaling technology and analytics businesses out of Silicon Valley. That is exactly the experience set that we need at this moment in time. And she is thinking differently about the business.
嗨,Surinder,歡迎加入這通電話會議。我希望你從我開場的發言中已經感受到,我們對 Christina 加入我們,以及她帶來的經驗與觀點感到非常興奮。如我所說,她在矽谷擁有三十年擴張科技與分析業務的經驗。這正是我們在此刻所需要的經驗組合。而且她正在以不同的方式思考這門生意。
And for those of you that have heard me at these investor meetings over the last year or two, this is going to sound familiar. She's focused on how do we think about simplifying our offerings and reducing the selling friction across cross-sell and upsell, sharpening our go-to-market motions including how we price and package our agentic solution.
對於過去一兩年在投資人會議上聽過我發言的各位,這聽起來會很熟悉。她聚焦於:我們如何思考簡化產品供給、降低交叉銷售與加購(cross-sell 與 upsell)過程中的銷售摩擦,並強化我們的 go-to-market 動作,包括我們如何為 agentic 解決方案定價與打包。
She's got a lot of experience with that. So that's fantastic. I would say her early priorities line up with again, our own thinking, and that's going to start with strengthening our data layer, which really serves as the foundation for connected intelligence, accelerating the build of our intelligence layer for agentic integration and then ultimately, enabling us to up-level our solution suite.
她在這方面有非常多的經驗。所以這非常棒。我會說,她的早期優先事項也再次與我們自身的想法一致,而這將從強化我們的資料層開始——這確實是連結式智慧(connected intelligence)的基礎;接著加速建置我們的智慧層,以支援 agentic 整合;最終讓我們能夠提升我們的解決方案套件。
So the other thing I'd say is she's just, I think, very focused, again, early days. It's -- this is her fifth week, but focused on organizational clarity and making sure that MA structure and operating model can move at the speed that this AI first moment demand. So very excited about what she brings to the table.
另外我想說的是,她也非常專注——當然目前還在早期階段。這是她加入的第五週,但她聚焦於組織清晰度,並確保 MA 的組織架構與營運模式能以這個 AI-first 時刻的需求速度運作。所以我們對她能帶來的貢獻感到非常興奮。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.
Andrew Nicholas,William Blair。
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. I had a little bit of a bigger picture question here. Last week or so, we've seen some lower cost frontier models emerge. And with that kind of pointing to the potential for a significant decline in coping costs going forward, I'm curious how you're thinking about the second order impact on Moody's. Does it impact your expectations for client usage, your internal efficiency efforts and maybe relatedly, there's a lower cost model environment change the competitive dynamics or disruption risk at all in your view?
嗨,早安。謝謝讓我插進來提問。我有一個比較宏觀的問題。在過去一週左右,我們看到一些成本更低的前沿模型(frontier models)出現。而這似乎指向未來推理成本(coping costs)可能大幅下降的可能性;我想了解你們如何看待對 Moody’s 的二階影響。這是否會影響你們對客戶使用量的預期、你們內部提升效率的工作?以及相關地,在較低成本模型的環境下,是否會改變競爭動態或提高顛覆風險(disruption risk),就你們的觀點而言?
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Noemie Heuland - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Maybe I'll take a crack at this first, and I'll let Rob chime in. I think, first on token cost. Our internal AI and token cost today is actively governed. We have a variety of tools that we put at disposals of our engineers, our back-office teams. We have very strict monitoring and training to ensure they are using the best tools for the task at hand.
我先嘗試回答一下,然後也讓 Rob 補充。首先談 token 成本。我們目前內部的 AI 與 token 成本是受到積極治理的。我們提供各式工具給工程師與後勤團隊使用。我們也有非常嚴格的監控與訓練,確保大家針對手上的任務使用最合適的工具。
And I'm pretty proud of what we've implemented if I listened to some of my peers and the different noise around token cost explosion. We're not in that fact pattern at all here.
如果我聽聽一些同業的說法,以及外界對 token 成本爆增的各種雜音,我對我們所落實的做法其實相當自豪。我們這裡完全不是那種情況。
When it comes to the lower costs and frontier models, I think it's still early to tell, but I would tend to view this as a tailwind keeper tokens ultimately would expand usage more than they would press price, I think. The customers would move towards increased usage of AI which I think is -- we're well positioned to benefit from.
至於更低成本與前沿模型,我認為現在下定論仍為時尚早,但我傾向把它視為順風(tailwind):更便宜的 token 最終會擴大使用量,而不是壓低價格,我認為是這樣。客戶會轉向更高程度地使用 AI,而我們也處於很好的位置可以從中受益。
The other thing I would want to say, though, is if you look at our customers and where we deploy AI-enabled solutions today, what the use cases they're leveraging AI for in terms of gaining productivity, gaining efficiency, getting more effective performing the controls, especially in banking and very heavily regulated environment.
不過我還想補充的是,如果你看我們的客戶,以及我們目前部署 AI 賦能解決方案的場景——他們運用 AI 的用例,主要是在提升生產力、提升效率、以及更有效地執行控制(controls),特別是在銀行業與高度監管的環境中。
I think they want us, partner with us and make sure we have the right controls around our models and using the proven market leader model. So we're not there in deploying -- experimenting sort of see we're using well-established providers.
我認為他們希望我們與他們合作,並確保我們的模型具備正確的控管機制,且使用經市場驗證的領導者模型。因此我們在部署上並不是去做那種——試驗性的探索;我們使用的是成熟且已建立的供應商。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And I might also add, I mean, again, this is all evolving very quickly, right? But as you -- if we see a lowering of token costs, I think we look around, there's a lot of AI native companies, but there's a lot of companies that have basically just built an AI wrapper using somebody else's model. And I do wonder how sustainable all of that is. And that goes back to -- look, if token costs come down and they come down for everybody, for the AI natives, they're going to come down for us as well.
是的。我也想補充一下,這一切都在非常快速地演進,對吧?但如果我們看到 token 成本下降,我想我們環顧市場,有很多 AI 原生公司,但也有很多公司基本上只是用別人的模型做了一層 AI 包裝(AI wrapper)。我確實會想,這樣的模式能持續多久。而這也回到——你看,如果 token 成本下降,而且是對所有人都下降,那對 AI 原生公司會下降,對我們也同樣會下降。
And it's going to enable us to be able to build and innovate faster and more cheaply. But we're going to keep capitalizing and reinforcing our source of competitive advantage. And that's this decision grade intelligence. We aren't just an AI wrapper using somebody else's model. We have an intelligent system that is integral to financial markets. And so I think that's something we're going to keep doubling down on that advantage.
這將使我們能以更快、更低的成本去建置與創新。但我們會持續資本化並強化我們的競爭優勢來源。也就是這種「決策級智慧」(decision grade intelligence)。我們不只是用別人的模型做一層 AI 包裝。我們擁有一個與金融市場密不可分的智慧系統。因此我認為這是我們會持續加倍投入的優勢。
Operator
Operator
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Rob for closing remarks.
問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回 Rob 作結語。
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Rob Fauber - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
All right. Thanks, everybody. Great quarter, constructive environment, good momentum. Let's go and talk to you next quarter.
好的。謝謝各位。本季表現很棒,環境具建設性,動能良好。我們下季再跟各位交流。
Operator
Operator
This concludes Moody's Corporation second quarter 2026 earnings call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on Moody's IR website.
以上為穆迪公司(Moody’s Corporation)2026 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒各位,本通電話會議結束後,公司將在 Moody’s 投資人關係(IR)首頁的「Investor Resources」區域,發布 MIS 營收拆分明細。此外,會後也將在 Moody’s IR 網站提供重播。
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。