穆迪 (MCO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。在此，我想告知各位，本次會議正在錄影。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係主管Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the third quarter of 2025 and updated guidance for select metrics. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝。早安，感謝各位今天收看我們的節目。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2025 年第三季業績報告，並更新了對部分指標的預期。本次電話會議的獲利新聞稿和簡報均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US GAAP. I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在本次電話會議中，我們也會公佈非GAAP或調整後的數據。請參考我們今天早上發布的獲利新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議中提到的所有根據美國通用會計準則調整的指標之間的調節情況。請您注意安全港條款，該條款位於我們盈利報告的末尾。今天的發言可能包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。

In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website.

根據該法案，我還請您注意我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告中的管理層討論與分析部分以及風險因素，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的內容，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。

These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements. I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

這些內容，連同安全港聲明，列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果有重大差異的重要因素。我還想指出，今天早上媒體成員可能以只聽模式參與電話會議。

Rob, over to you.

羅伯，該你了。

Thanks, Shivani, and thanks, everybody, for joining today's call. This morning, I'm going to start with the highlights from Moody's strong third quarter results, and I'm going to provide some insights from our latest refunding wall studies as well as some examples of how we're winning in the deep currents that we're operating in. But let me give you the punchline. We delivered record quarterly revenue. We're raising our full year guidance across almost all metrics, and we continue to drive significant innovation throughout the firm all at the same time.

謝謝Shivani，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天早上，我將首先介紹穆迪強勁的第三季業績亮點，並提供一些我們最新再融資壁壘研究的見解，以及一些我們如何在當前嚴峻的市場環境下取得成功的例子。但讓我告訴你最終的答案。我們實現了創紀錄的季度營收。我們提高了全年業績預期，幾乎涵蓋所有指標，同時，我們也在全公司範圍內持續推進重大創新。

Now following our prepared remarks, Noemie and I, as always, we'll be glad to take your questions. So with that, let's get to the results. We finished the third quarter on a high note. Markets closed with the busiest September on record and Moody's notched a new record of our own. We exceeded $2 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever in our history, and that was up 11% from the third quarter of last year.

現在，按照我們準備好的發言，諾米和我一如既往地很高興回答你們的問題。那麼，讓我們來看看結果。第三季我們以優異的成績收官。市場以有史以來最繁忙的九月收盤，穆迪也創下了我們自己的新紀錄。我們季度營收首次突破 20 億美元，創歷史新高，比去年第三季成長了 11%。

Moody's adjusted operating margin was almost 53% in the third quarter, up over 500 basis points from a year ago, demonstrating the tremendous operating leverage that we've created in our business. We delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $3.92 in the third quarter. That was up 22% from last year, and that's particularly impressive given the tough comp in the third quarter of 2024, when we posted 32% year-over-year growth, on top of the 31% growth in the third quarter of 2023.

穆迪第三季的調整後營業利潤率接近 53%，比去年同期成長超過 500 個基點，這表明我們在業務中創造了巨大的經營槓桿。第三季調整後攤薄每股收益為 3.92 美元。這比去年同期增長了 22%，考慮到 2024 年第三季的基數較高，這一成績尤其令人印象深刻。當時我們實現了 32% 的年成長，而 2023 年第三季的成長率為 31%。

And just to put this in perspective, we've more than doubled adjusted diluted EPS from the same quarter just three years ago, consistently strengthening the earnings power of the firm year after year after year. And all of this, while investing to harness the immense opportunities in the deep currents that we've talked about over the past several years.

為了讓大家更清楚地了解這一點，我們調整後的稀釋每股收益比三年前同期翻了一番還多，公司盈利能力逐年穩步提升。而這一切，都是為了投資利用我們在過去幾年一直在討論的深層暗流中蘊藏的巨大機會。

Now on to the highlights for our Ratings business. MIS delivered 12% revenue growth for the quarter and surpassed $1 billion of quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter, setting an all-time record. Our position as the agency of choice enabled us to capitalize on a healthy issuance environment and record tight spreads. And the strategic investments we've made in technology, analytical tools and talent are equipping us to meet surges in issuance volume and capital markets innovation.

接下來是評級業務的亮點。MIS 本季營收成長 12%，連續第三個季度營收超過 10 億美元，創歷史新高。我們作為首選代理商的地位使我們能夠利用健康的發行環境並取得較小的利差。我們在技術、分析工具和人才方面進行的策略性投資，使我們能夠應對發行量激增和資本市場創新帶來的挑戰。

Now looking forward, the issuance pipeline is robust. Demand is solid, with spreads hovering around near record lows, and the refi walls continue to build. Additionally, demand for debt financing remains strong in areas that we've consistently spotlighted over the past year or two. That includes private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, infrastructure development and transition finance. And you can see this coming through in some of the marquee deals that we rated in the quarter.

展望未來，發行通路暢通無阻。需求強勁，利差徘徊在接近歷史低點附近，再融資壁壘持續堆積。此外，在過去一兩年我們一直重點關注的領域，債務融資需求依然強勁。這包括私人信貸、人工智慧驅動的資料中心擴建、基礎設施開發和轉型融資。這一點可以從我們本季評級的一些重點交易中看出。

First, we were the sole rating agency on the first of its kind emerging market CLO in APAC for the International Finance Corporation, which is a member of the World Bank Group. That was a very innovative financing vehicle for frontier markets.

首先，我們是世界銀行集團成員國際金融公司在亞太地區首個新興市場 CLO 的唯一評級機構。那是一種非常創新的新興市場融資工具。

Second, our corporate ABS team rated a more than $1 billion data center securitization, also the first transaction of its kind, which is backed by three high-quality newly constructed data centers and their related leases.

其次，我們的企業資產支援證券團隊對超過 10 億美元的資料中心證券化進行了評級，這也是同類交易中的首例，該證券化以三個新建的高品質資料中心及其相關租賃為支撐。

And third, we rated the largest Asian corporate bond ever issued at almost $18 billion with much of the proceeds being used for data center investment. And all of these are notable examples of deep currents driving demand for debt financing. And while those deep currents are driving new issuance, refunding needs continue to grow as well.

第三，我們對有史以來發行規模最大的亞洲企業債券進行了評級，該債券規模接近 180 億美元，其中大部分收益將用於資料中心投資。所有這些都是推動債務融資需求的深層因素的顯著例子。雖然這些深層趨勢推動了新債券的發行，但再融資需求也持續成長。

Our most recently published refunding study shows that refunding needs over the next four years are projected to surpass $5 trillion. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025. That number is approximately double the dollar volume seen in 2018 and this gives us some real confidence in the medium-term growth trajectory for MIS. Now there's typically a lot of interest in these reports on this call. So let me just share a few key findings with you.

我們最新發布的退款研究表明，未來四年的退款需求預計將超過 5 兆美元。這意味著從 2018 年到 2025 年，複合年增長率將達到 10%。這個數字大約是 2018 年美元交易額的兩倍，這讓我們對 MIS 的中期成長軌跡充滿信心。現在，人們通常對這次電話會議中的這些報告很感興趣。因此，讓我與大家分享一些重要發現。

First, nonfinancial corporate refinancing walls in both the US and EMEA grew 6% over the upcoming four-year maturity horizon. Overall, investment-grade maturities are up 5%, while spec-grade maturities are up 7%. And notably, within spec-grade, US bond maturities have increased by more than 20%. And in EMEA, spec-grade bonds and loans each rose by approximately 20%.

首先，美國和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的非金融企業再融資障礙在未來四年到期日內成長了 6%。總體而言，投資等級債券到期日增加了 5%，而投機債券到期日則成長了 7%。值得注意的是，在投機債券中，美國債券的到期日增加了 20% 以上。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，投機級債券和貸款均上漲了約 20%。

And all of this points to a favorable backdrop for future issuance, and the mix is especially encouraging given that spec-grade issuance tends to be more accretive to our revenue profile. So for those of you interested in exploring the full reports they are available on moodys.com, or through our Investor Relations team.

所有這些都預示著未來發行債券的有利前景，而且考慮到投機債券的發行往往更有利於提高我們的收入，這種組合尤其令人鼓舞。如果您有興趣了解完整報告，可以造訪 moodys.com 或透過我們的投資者關係團隊取得。

Now beyond the refunding walls, we remain well positioned to meet the evolving market needs in private credit. And that's a theme that we've consistently highlighted on prior calls. Private credit continues to be a growth driver for Ratings.

現在，即使拋開退款限制，我們仍然能夠很好地滿足私人信貸市場不斷變化的需求。這也是我們在先前的電話會議中一直強調的主題。私人信貸仍然是評級業務成長的驅動力。

In the third quarter, the number of private credit-related deals grew almost 70%. Notably, direct lending remains the smallest portion of our private credit-related activity, while fund finance and securitization are leading the way in both deal counts and issuance volumes.

第三季度，私人信貸相關交易數量增加了近 70%。值得注意的是，直接貸款仍然是我們私人信貸相關活動中佔比最小的部分，而基金融資和證券化在交易數量和發行量方面都處於領先地位。

Revenue tied to private credit grew over 60% in the third quarter across multiple MIS business lines, albeit off a relatively small but expanding base. We're also seeing a growing number of private deals returning to the public debt markets for refinancing. And according to Bloomberg's LevFin Insights, issuers are realizing material savings. On average, something like 200 basis points, but in some cases, as much as 400 basis points when compared to private market rates.

第三季度，與私人信貸相關的收入在多個 MIS 業務線中成長超過 60%，儘管基數相對較小但正在擴大。我們也看到越來越多的私人交易重新回到公共債務市場進行再融資。根據彭博社的槓桿融資洞察報告，發行人正在實現實質的成本節約。平均而言，與私人市場利率相比，大約高出 200 個基點，但在某些情況下，甚至高達 400 個基點。

And as I've mentioned before, this dynamic effectively acts as a deferred maturity wall as we see unrated private direct lending deals refi into the rated BSL market. And as this market continues to grow, we continue to invest in experienced analytical teams and methodological rigor to ensure Ratings quality.

正如我之前提到的，這種動態實際上起到了遞延到期牆的作用，因為我們看到未評級的私人直接貸款交易再融資到已評級的 BSL 市場。隨著市場持續成長，我們將繼續投資於經驗豐富的分析團隊和嚴謹的方法論，以確保評級品質。

Now turning to Moody's Analytics. We delivered strong results again this quarter. Revenue growth was 9% year-over-year, including 11% in Decision Solutions. ARR is now nearly $3.4 billion, that's up 8% versus last year. And we're delivering margin improvement ahead of our plans just earlier this year. Our cross-MA initiatives are yielding results, delivering a 34.3% adjusted operating margin, up 400 basis points versus last year. And as a result, we're increasing our full year margin outlook for MA to approximately 33%, and we believe this puts us solidly on track to meet our medium-term margin commitments.

接下來我們來看看穆迪分析公司。本季我們再次取得了強勁的業績。營收年增 9%，其中決策解決方案業務成長 11%。ARR 目前接近 34 億美元，比去年增長了 8%。今年年初，我們的利潤率提升就提前於預期。我們的跨MA計畫正在取得成效，調整後的營業利潤率為34.3%，比去年提高了400個基點。因此，我們將 MA 的全年利潤率預期上調至約 33%，我們相信這將使我們穩步朝著實現其中期利潤率目標邁進。

Now we're continuing to invest in scalable solutions across high-growth end markets, while at the same time, simplifying the product suite and optimizing our organizational structure. So one example of that simplification. In the third quarter, we entered into a definitive agreement to sell our Learning Solutions business to Fitch. We had a good run with our Learning business, but we felt it no longer fit the profile of where we're seeking to invest in scalable recurring revenue businesses.

現在，我們繼續投資高成長終端市場的可擴展解決方案，同時簡化產品套件並優化組織結構。這就是簡化的一個例子。第三季度，我們與惠譽達成最終協議，將我們的學習解決方案業務出售給惠譽。我們的學習業務發展得不錯，但我們覺得它不再符合我們尋求投資可擴展的經常性收入業務的定位。

In parallel with these portfolio simplification efforts, we remain very focused on the deep current driving demand for our Analytics offerings. And in MA, that includes an increasing focus on physical climate risk, and enhancing and expanding our solutions to help customers embed AI more deeply into their workflows.

在進行這些產品組合簡化工作的同時，我們仍然非常關注推動我們分析產品需求的深層因素。在馬薩諸塞州，這包括越來越關注物理氣候風險，並增強和擴展我們的解決方案，以幫助客戶將人工智慧更深入地嵌入他們的工作流程中。

On a recent trip to Asia, where we celebrated 40 years of Moody's in the region, I heard firsthand about two customers who are investing in our physical risk solutions to understand the impact of extreme weather events, and both of these are outside of the insurance sector.

在最近一次亞洲之行中，我們慶祝了穆迪在該地區成立 40 週年。我親耳聽到兩位客戶正在投資我們的實體風險解決方案，以了解極端天氣事件的影響，而這兩位客戶都來自保險業之外。

First, one of the largest banks in Japan, and for that matter the world, is using the RMS models that are traditionally used by our property and casualty insurance customers to understand physical climate risk across lending and portfolio management.

首先，日本乃至全球最大的銀行之一正在使用我們的財產和意外傷害保險客戶傳統上使用的 RMS 模型來了解貸款和投資組合管理中的實體氣候風險。

Second, we recently won a multiyear deal with an Asian regulatory agency to deliver physical climate risk data to 11 banks and insurers. And this marks the first time globally that a regulator has purchased Moody's climate solutions on behalf of its financial sector. And this initiative enables the integration of physical risk analytics into regulatory reporting, in core business functions, and also establishes a precedent for further regional adoption and collaboration.

其次，我們最近與一家亞洲監管機構達成了一項多年協議，向 11 家銀行和保險公司提供實體氣候風險數據。這是全球監管機構首次代表金融部門購買穆迪的氣候解決方案。這項措施能夠將實體風險分析納入監管報告和核心業務功能中，並為進一步的區域採用和合作樹立先例。

Now on AI, you've heard me talk before about the very encouraging engagement that we have with a number of large banks who are interested in leveraging our data and models in their internal AI-enabled workflows. And while these discussions have taken time to move through banks' risk governance frameworks, we're now seeing some tangible momentum.

關於人工智慧，你們之前也聽我說過，我們與許多大型銀行的合作非常令人鼓舞，這些銀行有興趣在其內部人工智慧工作流程中利用我們的數據和模型。雖然這些討論需要時間才能在銀行的風險治理框架內推進，但我們現在看到了一些實際的進展。

In the third quarter, we signed over $3 million in new business with a Tier 1 US bank, which included solutions to automate credit memo creation and to deploy early warning systems across its real estate portfolios. These solutions are driving meaningful efficiency gains for our customers, they're accelerating time to decision and delivering a competitive edge.

第三季度，我們與一家美國一級銀行簽署了超過 300 萬美元的新業務協議，其中包括自動化創建貸項通知單的解決方案，以及在其房地產投資組合中部署預警系統。這些解決方案為我們的客戶帶來了顯著的效率提升，加快了決策速度，並帶來了競爭優勢。

And this is a powerful example of how Moody's is uniquely positioned to bring together proprietary data, advanced analytics, software, and now GenAI capabilities and agents into our customers' mission-critical workflows. Now these agentic capabilities are just one part of a broader investment strategy, one that's focused on unlocking the full potential of our data and analytics estate. And we're not only investing in how we build intelligent AI-powered workflows, but also in how we package and deliver our proprietary data and analytics, embedding that directly into our customers' internal systems and our partners' platforms.

這有力地證明了穆迪公司如何憑藉其獨特的優勢，將專有數據、高級分析、軟體以及現在的 GenAI 功能和代理整合到客戶的關鍵任務工作流程中。現在，這些代理能力只是更廣泛的投資策略的一部分，該策略的重點是釋放我們數據和分析資產的全部潛力。我們不僅投資於如何建立智慧的 AI 驅動工作流程，還投資於如何打包和交付我們專有的數據和分析，並將其直接嵌入到我們客戶的內部系統和我們合作夥伴的平台中。

As we've discussed on recent calls, partnerships are an important part of this strategy. And we're embedding our data into partner ecosystems, extending our reach while preserving the depth of our domain expertise. And this approach not only scales our impact, it also deepens customer integration, improves retention, and it will help to continue to drive durable growth across our portfolio.

正如我們在最近的電話會議中所討論的那樣，夥伴關係是這項策略的重要組成部分。我們將數據嵌入合作夥伴生態系統，擴大覆蓋範圍，同時保持我們在專業領域的深度。這種方法不僅可以擴大我們的影響力，還可以加深客戶整合，提高客戶留存率，並有助於推動我們產品組合的持續成長。

So a prime example this quarter is our partnership with Salesforce, where we continue to see strong growth from our integrated suite of connectors that includes company firmographic data, news and other content. And this supports third-party risk management and compliance monitoring, among other functions, bringing Moody's unique data and intelligence directly into Salesforce's workflows with great success.

本季度的一個很好的例子是我們與 Salesforce 的合作，我們透過整合連接器套件（包括公司概況數據、新聞和其他內容）繼續看到強勁的成長。這有助於第三方風險管理和合規性監控等功能，將穆迪獨特的資料和情報直接引入 Salesforce 的工作流程，並取得了巨大成功。

We're now expanding our partnership to make available our proprietary GenAI-ready data and analytics within Salesforce's Agentforce 360. And in addition, Moody's will make available on Agent Exchange, our new agentic AI sales tool, that I think I've talked about on prior earnings calls, and that elevates sales teams by automating lead prioritization and delivering predictive insights, leveraging our data. And this is one part of our broader AI strategy.

我們現在正在擴大合作夥伴關係，以便在 Salesforce 的 Agentforce 360​​ 中提供我們專有的 GenAI 就緒資料和分析。此外，穆迪還將透過 Agent Exchange 提供我們全新的智慧銷售工具，我想我在先前的財報電話會議上已經提到過它，它利用我們的數據，透過自動化線索優先排序和提供預測性見解來提升銷售團隊的能力。這是我們更廣泛的人工智慧策略的一部分。

So zooming out, there are a few dimensions to that AI strategy. The first is our foundational AI agent builder platform that all of our employees can use to reimagine workflows and increase productivity. As we've highlighted before, we're delivering efficiencies in engineering and customer support and we're now setting our sights on sales, product development and a variety of corporate functions as well as ratings workflows.

因此，從廣度來看，該人工智慧策略有幾個維度。首先是我們的基礎 AI 代理程式建構器平台，我們所有的員工都可以使用它來重新構想工作流程並提高生產力。正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們正在提高工程和客戶支援方面的效率，現在我們將目光投向銷售、產品開發和各種公司職能以及評級工作流程。

The second dimension is our AI Studio Factory, which is a platform designed for agentic product development. And the third is our recently announced Agentic Solutions, enabling us to commercialize smart APIs, MCP servers and domain-specific agents that leverage our vast proprietary data and content estate and deep subject matter expertise.

第二個維度是我們的 AI Studio Factory，這是一個專為智慧產品開發而設計的平台。第三點是我們最近發布的 Agentic Solutions，它使我們能夠將智慧 API、MCP 伺服器和特定領域的代理商業化，從而利用我們龐大的專有數據和內容資產以及深厚的專業知識。

So switching gears. We also continue to invest in growing our Ratings footprint in emerging markets. And this past quarter, we signed a definitive agreement to acquire a majority interest in MERIS, the leading ratings agency in Egypt. And this transaction will deepen Moody's presence in the Middle East and Africa, giving us a very strong first-mover advantage across all of the region's domestic debt markets. And these -- and you've heard me say this before, these are generational investments as emerging markets, including China, are expected to account for more than 60% of global GDP by 2029.

因此，換個話題。我們將繼續投資，擴大我們在新興市場的評級業務。上個季度，我們簽署了一項最終協議，收購埃及領先的評級機構 MERIS 的多數股權。這項交易將加深穆迪在中東和非洲的業務，使我們在該地區所有國內債務市場擁有非常強大的先發優勢。而且──你們以前也聽我說過──這些都是世代投資，因為包括中國在內的新興市場預計到 2029 年將佔全球 GDP 的 60% 以上。

And to that end, of the approximately $30 trillion of debt outstanding in those markets, only about 10% is cross-border. That means that the remaining 90% is issued locally and rated locally. And that's why these domestic market investments are so important.

因此，在這些市場未償債務約 30 兆美元中，只有約 10% 是跨國債務。這意味著剩餘的 90% 債券在本地發行，並在本地評級。也正因如此，這些國內市場投資才顯得如此重要。

So before I hand it over to Noemie for more details in the numbers, a few key takeaways. This past quarter, we delivered strong growth, significant operating leverage, and we have good momentum heading into next year. And of course, just a quick shout out to all of my teammates for the fantastic work this quarter helping deliver one of the strongest quarters in Moody's history. Noemie, over to you.

所以在我把數據細節交給諾埃米之前，先總結幾個關鍵要點。上個季度，我們實現了強勁成長，顯著的營運槓桿效應，並且我們擁有良好的發展勢頭，邁向明年。當然，也要特別感謝我的所有隊友，感謝他們在本季的出色工作，幫助穆迪取得了史上最強勁的季度業績之一。諾艾米，交給你了。

Thanks, Rob, and hello, everyone. Q3 was outstanding. We showcased the full force of our earnings power. We are lifting both our top and bottom-line guidance, and we're proving we can invest for growth and expand margins at the same time. So let's dive right in.

謝謝羅布，大家好。第三季表現出色。我們充分展現了我們的獲利能力。我們上調了營收和利潤預期，並證明我們能夠同時進行成長投資和擴大利潤率。那麼就讓我們開始吧。

Starting with MIS, revenue grew 12%, a very strong result, especially given the typical softness in Q3. All Ratings lines of business contributed to the growth, supported by the constructive issuance environment. The largest increase came from leveraged finance activity, followed by financial institutions, driven by heightened issuance from infrequent issuers, including fund finance and BDCs.

從 MIS 業務開始，營收成長了 12%，這是一個非常強勁的成績，尤其考慮到第三季通常較為疲軟的情況。在良好的發行環境下，所有評級業務線都為成長做出了貢獻。增幅最大的是槓桿融資活動，其次是金融機構，這主要是由於不常發行債券的發行人（包括基金融資和商業發展公司）的債券發行量增加所致。

Issuance totaled nearly $1.8 billion, marking the highest third quarter on record. This reflects a combination of factors we've previously discussed, including historically tight spreads, strong investor demand, and the announced rate cut near quarter end, as well as a pickup in M&A activity.

發行總額接近 18 億美元，創下有史以來最高的第三季紀錄。這反映了我們之前討論過的多種因素的綜合作用，包括歷史上較為狹窄的利差、強勁的投資者需求、季度末宣布的降息以及併購活動的增加。

MIS transaction revenue rose 14%, slightly trailing the 15% growth in issuance due to high volume of repricing activity this quarter. As noted before, simpler and less complex bank loan repricings typically yield lower revenue and are less favorable to -- from a mix perspective.

由於本季重新定價活動量較大，MIS 交易收入成長 14%，略低於發行量 15% 的成長。如前所述，較簡單、不太複雜的銀行貸款重新定價通常會產生較低的收入，並且從組合角度來看，對投資者來說不太有利。

MIS recurring revenue increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of ongoing pricing initiatives, portfolio expansion and sustained monitoring fees. Foreign exchange contributed to a favorable 1% uplift consistent with the benefit seen in the second quarter. Now some color on Q3 transactional revenue by asset class.

MIS 經常性收入年增 8%，反映了持續的定價措施、產品組合擴張和持續的監控費用的影響。外匯帶來了 1% 的良好成長，與第二季的收益一致。現在來詳細了解第三季按資產類別劃分的交易收入。

Corporate Finance transaction revenue increased by 13%, supported by a 29% rise in bank loan revenue, compared to 58% issuance growth. This issuance surge was largely driven by repricing activity, which were bounded following subdued levels in Q2. Spec-grade revenue rose 43% and marking the strongest quarter for rated issuance since 2021. This was fueled by a positive investor sentiment and robust market access for these issuers. Investment-grade revenue declined 17% year-over-year, reflecting a 6% drop in issuance.

企業融資交易收入成長了 13%，其中銀行貸款收入成長了 29%，而同期貸款發行量增加了 58%。此次發行量激增主要是由重新定價活動推動的，而此前第二季度的發行量一直處於低迷狀態。特級債券營收成長 43%，創下自 2021 年以來評級債券發行量最強勁的季度紀錄。這主要得益於投資者情緒樂觀以及這些發行人擁有良好的市場准入。投資等級債券收入年減 17%，反映出發行量下降了 6%。

Despite the decline, overall activity remained solid, supported by several large M&A transactions. Notably, Q3 of last year was the second highest third quarter on record for investment grade, driven by significant deal volume in the energy, oil and gas sector, creating a bit of a challenging comp base.

儘管有所下滑，但在幾筆大型併購交易的支撐下，整體市場活動依然穩健。值得注意的是，去年第三季度是投資等級債券有史以來第二高的第三季度，這主要得益於能源、石油和天然氣行業的交易量大幅增長，但也造成了一定的同業比較基數。

In Financial Institutions, transactional revenue grew 34%, significantly above the 3% issuance growth. This was driven by the strongest volumes in a decade from frequent issuers within the banking sector. Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance transactional revenue remained relatively flat, reflecting weaker activity in project finance and sovereigns.

在金融機構中，交易收入成長了 34%，遠高於 3% 的發行收入成長率。這主要得益於銀行業頻繁發卡機構十年來最強勁的發行量。公共、專案和基礎設施融資交易收入保持相對平穩，反映出專案融資和主權融資活動疲軟。

However, this was partially offset by strong performance in US Public Finance, especially within the regional and muni space. Structured Finance transaction revenue rose 10%, and supported by strong activity in CLOs, especially new deals, driven by growth in leveraged loan formation. This was complemented by improving activity in US RMBS, underpinned by sustained investor demand and healthy deal flow.

然而，美國公共財政，特別是區域和市政財政領域的強勁表現，在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。結構性融資交易收入成長了 10%，這主要得益於 CLO 的強勁活動，尤其是新交易，而新交易又是由槓桿貸款發行量的成長所推動的。同時，美國RMBS市場活動日益活躍，這得益於投資者持續的需求和健康的交易量。

As Rob mentioned, private credit continues to be an important driver of MIS revenue growth, mainly from fund finance and business development companies, or BDC activities. First-time mandates reached 200 in Q3. That's up 5% year-over-year. Growth was strong across both North America and LatAm, putting us on track to reach 700 to 750 for the full year. This momentum was partially driven by private credit-related mandates across Financial Institutions, Structured Finance and private investor requested ratings in PPIF.

正如 Rob 所提到的，私人信貸仍然是 MIS 收入成長的重要驅動力，主要來自基金融資和商業發展公司，或 BDC 活動。第三季首次授權數量達 200 例。較去年同期成長5%。北美和拉丁美洲的業務成長強勁，使我們預計在全年達到 700 至 750 人次的目標。這一勢頭部分是由金融機構、結構性融資和私人投資者在 PPIF 中提出的與私人信貸相關的評級要求所推動的。

As a reminder, though with the growth in private credit, some issuance activity will not be captured in rated issuance figures reported by external data providers. Now turning to margins. MIS delivered an adjusted operating margin of 65.2%, which is an expansion of 560 basis points year-over-year. And as a result, we are raising our full year guidance to a range of 63% to 64%.

需要提醒的是，隨著私人信貸的成長，一些發行活動將不會被外部數據提供者報告的評級發行數據所涵蓋。現在來看邊距。MIS 的調整後營業利益率為 65.2%，較去年同期成長 560 個基點。因此，我們將全年業績預期上調至 63% 至 64%。

Looking forward and as shown on this slide, we are updating our issuance outlook by asset class. Our forecast for the remainder of 2025 assume continued momentum from the third quarter, even as we approach the typical and expected normal seasonal slowdown towards year-end.

展望未來，正如這張幻燈片所示，我們正在按資產類別更新我們的發行前景。我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的預測假設第三季的成長勢頭將繼續保持，即使我們接近年底典型的、預期的正常季節性放緩。

We expect issuance growth to be mid-single digit for the full year with notable updates in investment grade, leveraged loan and high-yield bond issuance bolstered by improving M&A activity. As previously noted, we expect spreads to remain near historic lows despite some modest widening.

我們預計全年發行量成長率將達到中等個位數，投資等級、槓桿貸款和高收益債券發行將因併購活動的改善而顯著變化。如前所述，儘管價差略有擴大，但我們預計價差仍將保持在歷史低點附近。

Investor demand remained strong, and signs of renewed M&A momentum are emerging. And that's actually reflected in the uptick in our Rating Assessment Service, or RAS business, which often serves as a leading indicator for M&A. In fact, Q3 marked record quarterly revenue for RAS. This reinforces our expectation that M&A will be a positive contributor as we head into 2026.

投資人需求依然強勁，併購活動再次呈現復甦動能。而這實際上反映在我們評級評估服務（RAS）業務的成長上，該業務通常作為併購的領先指標。事實上，第三季 RAS 的季度營收創下歷史新高。這更加堅定了我們對併購將在2026年發揮積極作用的預期。

In the near term, we're raising our estimate of M&A issuance to a range of 15% to 20% for the full year 2025. Now translating this to revenue, we now anticipate full year MIS revenue growth in the high single-digit range, and that's an upward revision from our previous outlook. Overall, we remain optimistic about issuance activity, but it's important to note that our guidance doesn't factor in a significant disruption like the one we've experienced earlier this year.

短期內，我們將 2025 年全年併購發行量的預期上調至 15% 至 20%。現在將此轉化為收入，我們預計全年 MIS 收入成長將達到高個位數，這比我們先前的預期有所上調。總體而言，我們對債券發行活動仍持樂觀態度，但需要指出的是，我們的預期並未考慮像今年稍早那樣的重大中斷。

Risks remain with ongoing tariff and trade negotiations, and the full impact of a prolonged government shutdown on market conditions is difficult to predict. That said, we believe we have accounted for the broad spectrum of the most plausible scenarios in our updated guidance.

關稅和貿易談判仍在進行中，風險依然存在，政府長期停擺對市場狀況的全面影響難以預測。儘管如此，我們相信，我們在更新後的指導下已經考慮到了各種最可能出現的情況。

Turning to Moody's Analytics. This business continues to deliver an impressive financial profile. 93% recurring revenue, a 93% retention rate, and consistent growth at scale. Reported revenue grew 9% year-over-year, while recurring revenue grew 11%, or 8% on an organic constant currency basis.

轉而參考穆迪分析公司的數據。這家公司持續展現令人矚目的財務表現。 93% 的收入來自經常性支出，93% 的客戶留存率，以及持續的規模成長。報告顯示，營收年增 9%，經常性收入成長 11%，以有機成長（固定匯率）計算成長 8%。

As we've talked about a lot in recent years, we've been actively reshaping the revenue mix by downsizing low-margin services and increasingly leveraging implementation partners across regions. As a result, transactional revenue continues to decline, down 19% this quarter.

正如我們近年來多次談到的那樣，我們一直在積極重塑收入結構，縮減低利潤服務，並越來越多地利用各地區的實施合作夥伴。因此，交易收入持續下降，本季下降了19%。

ARR growth of 8% is consistent with last quarter. You'll notice some quarter-to-quarter movement in individual line of business growth rates, often driven by large new business wins or large attrition events. Across the portfolio, though retention rates consistently hold in the low to mid-90% range, and that supports high single-digit ARR growth.

8% 的 ARR 成長率與上一季一致。你會注意到各個業務線的成長率存在一些季度間的波動，這通常是由贏得大量新業務或大規模人員流失事件所推動的。儘管整個投資組合的客戶留存率一直保持在 90% 左右，但這仍然支撐著較高的個位數 ARR 成長。

Now let me double-click into each of the lines of businesses to give you a clearer view of the underlying dynamics. First, Decision Solutions, which includes our banking, insurance and KYC, delivered double-digit ARR growth this quarter at 10%. KYC continues to be the fastest-growing part of Decision Solutions with sustained growth in the low to high teens over the last several quarters. This quarter, we reported 16% ARR growth, and I want to highlight two recent sales in the tech sector that illustrate the appetite for our KYC solutions beyond financial service customers.

現在，讓我雙擊每個業務線，以便您更清楚地了解背後的動態。首先，包括我們的銀行、保險和 KYC 在內的決策解決方案業務，本季實現了兩位數的 ARR 成長，達到 10%。KYC 仍然是決策解決方案中成長最快的部分，在過去的幾個季度中持續保持 10% 到 20% 的成長。本季度，我們報告的 ARR 成長率為 16%，我想強調一下科技領域最近的兩筆銷售，這反映了金融服務客戶以外對我們的 KYC 解決方案的興趣。

First, a large technology company signed a major deal to integrate Moody's Orbis data into its denied party screening system, helping block transactions with entities in countries of concern. This deal positions Moody's as a trusted provider of critical data for regulatory compliance and showcases our ability to address complex challenges with innovative solutions.

首先，一家大型科技公司簽署了一項重大協議，將穆迪Orbis的資料整合到其被拒方篩選系統中，以協助阻止與受關注國家的實體進行交易。這項交易將穆迪定位為值得信賴的監管合規關鍵數據提供商，並展現了我們運用創新解決方案應對複雜挑戰的能力。

Second, a global social media platform is using Moody's to strengthen fraud detection and business verification across its ecosystem. Our data helps uncover hidden ownership structures, circular directorships and branding consistencies, streamlining investigations, reducing manual review and accelerating decision-making.

其次，一個全球社群媒體平台正在利用穆迪來加強其生態系統中的詐欺偵測和業務驗證。我們的數據有助於發現隱藏的所有權結構、循環董事制和品牌一致性，從而簡化調查、減少人工審查並加快決策速度。

Insurance delivered 8% ARR growth this quarter, and there are a few dynamics worth noting given the diversity in the end markets we serve. First, growth in our life business remains strong and has been bolstered recently by customers adopting more sophisticated models and increased usage. On the property and casualty side, 2024 was a standout year for both new business and retention, with several large cross-sell wins and retention rates in the high 90s, presenting a bit of a tougher comp.

本季度保險業務實現了 8% 的 ARR 成長，考慮到我們所服務的終端市場的多樣性，有一些動態值得注意。首先，我們的人壽保險業務成長依然強勁，並且最近由於客戶採用更複雜的模型和增加使用量而得到加強。在財產和意外傷害保險方面，2024 年是新業務和客戶留存率都非常出色的一年，取得了幾項大型交叉銷售，客戶留存率也達到了 90% 以上，這使得今年的競爭更加激烈。

In our banking line of business, which includes our lending suite as well as risk, regulatory and finance solutions, we delivered ARR growth of 7% in Q3. Reported revenue was flat in the third quarter versus last year, influenced by the revenue accounting for multiyear sales of on-premise solutions.

在我們的銀行業務線（包括貸款業務以及風險、監管和金融解決方案）中，第三季 ARR 成長了 7%。第三季報告收入與去年同期持平，主要原因是收入中包含了多年期本地部署解決方案的銷售額。

With risk, regulatory and finance solutions growing at mid-single digit, the headline growth rate masks the strength of our lending business, including CreditLens, which continues to grow ARR at a low to mid-teens pace and is the largest revenue contributor.

風險、監管和金融解決方案以個位數中段的速度成長，但整體成長率掩蓋了我們貸款業務的強勁勢頭，包括 CreditLens，其年度經常性收入 (ARR) 繼續以十幾到十幾的速度成長，並且是最大的收入貢獻者。

We're investing to expand our offering into a more comprehensive solution that spans the full lending workflow. This approach is resonating with our core customer base, mid-tier banks and is increasingly enabling us to cross and upsell across our solution set.

我們正在投資，以擴展我們的產品和服務，使其成為涵蓋整個貸款工作流程的更全面的解決方案。這種方法引起了我們核心客戶群——中型銀行的共鳴，並日益使我們能夠在我們的解決方案組合中進行交叉銷售和向上銷售。

Next, turning to Research & Insights. We delivered ARR growth of 8%, and that's an improvement as we lap last year's attrition events. Growth was further supported by strong upsell execution, fueled by our ongoing investments in CreditView, including Research Assistant and our suite of organic Agentic Solutions.

接下來，我們來看研究與洞察部分。我們實現了 8% 的 ARR 成長，這比去年因人員流失而導致的業績下滑有所改善。成長也得益於強勁的追加銷售執行，這得益於我們對 CreditView 的持續投資，包括 Research Assistant 和我們的一系列有機代理商解決方案。

Finally, Data & Information ARR grew 7% and continues to be affected by cancellations from earlier this year. On the positive side, we still see strong pricing power, sustained demand for Ratings data feeds and strong Orbis new business volume.

最後，數據與資訊業務的年度經常性收入成長了 7%，但仍受到今年稍早取消訂單的影響。從積極的方面來看，我們仍然看到強大的定價能力、對評級資料來源的持續需求以及 Orbis 強勁的新業務量。

Moving on to margin. We delivered ahead of our initial plan so far this year with a 400-basis points improvement in Q3, and we now expect approximately 33% for the full year. This represents over 300 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion before absorbing a headwind of about 100 basis points from the three M&A deals within the last year.

接下來討論利潤率。今年到目前為止，我們的業績比最初計劃提前完成，第三季業績提高了 400 個基點，我們現在預計全年業績將提高約 33%。這意味著在吸收了過去一年中三筆併購交易帶來的約 100 個基點的不利影響之前，利潤率比去年同期提高了 300 多個百分點。

But let me be clear, we're not stopping there. This progress is rooted in programs designed to maximize investments in strategic growth areas and realize a more efficient organization footprint. We remain focused on expanding margins towards our medium-term commitment of mid- to high 30s over the next two years.

但我要明確一點，我們的目標不會止步於此。這項進展源自於旨在最大限度地投資策略成長領域並實現更有效率的組織佈局的各項計劃。我們將繼續專注於擴大利潤率，力爭在未來兩年內實現中期目標，達到 30% 到 30% 的利潤率。

To get there, we are prioritizing and redeploying R&D spend across our portfolio, redesigning enterprise processes with GenAI, deploying productivity tools and optimizing vendor relationships. We remain confident in Moody's Analytics high quality, predictable ARR growth, and our ability to deliver sustained margin expansion, strengthening the earnings durability.

為了實現這一目標，我們正在優先考慮並重新部署我們產品組合中的研發支出，利用 GenAI 重新設計企業流程，部署生產力工具並優化供應商關係。我們仍然對穆迪分析公司高品質、可預測的年度經常性收入成長充滿信心，並且我們有能力實現持續的利潤率擴張，從而增強盈利的可持續性。

Now to help with modeling, I'll walk you through a few additional details behind our updated outlook assumptions. And you can see the MIS and MA guidance update here on slide 13. We now expect MCO revenue to grow in the high single-digit percent range. We are reaffirming our operating expense guidance, which supports an adjusted operating margin of about 51%, highlighting the strong operating leverage of our business.

為了幫助大家更理解模型，我將帶大家了解我們更新後的展望假設背後的一些細節。您可以在第 13 頁投影片上看到 MIS 和 MA 指南的更新。我們現在預計 MCO 收入將以接近兩位數的百分比成長。我們重申了我們的營運費用指引，該指引支持約 51% 的調整後營運利潤率，突顯了我們業務強大的營運槓桿作用。

At the MCO level and excluding restructuring charges, we anticipate operating expenses to increase by $10 million to $20 million quarter-over-quarter, consistent with expectations we shared in the second quarter.

在 MCO 層面，不計重組費用，我們預計營運支出將比上一季增加 1,000 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元，這與我們在第二季分享的預期一致。

We also expect incentive compensation to be approximately $100 million, in line with Q3. As demonstrated by our margin performance, particularly in MA, our efficiency program continues to deliver meaningful improvements. We have already executed over $100 million of annualized savings helping offset annual salary increases and variable costs. We are updating our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $14.50 to $14.75, and which implies roughly 17% growth at the midpoint versus last year.

我們也預計激勵薪酬約為 1 億美元，與第三季持平。正如我們的利潤表現（特別是在 MA）所表明的那樣，我們的效率計劃繼續帶來有意義的改進。我們已經實現了超過 1 億美元的年度節約，這有助於抵消年度薪資成長和可變成本。我們將調整後的稀釋每股收益指引範圍從 14.50 美元更新為 14.75 美元，這意味著與去年相比中點成長約 17%。

One modeling note on our tax rate. In October, a statute of limitations expired related to certain pre-acquisition tax exposures, Moody's assumed in the prior year M&A transaction. This will result in a onetime approximate 200 basis point favorable impact on our full year 2025 effective tax rate. Please note, this benefit will be fully offset by the release of the indemnification asset, so there will be no impact to net income or EPS.

關於我們稅率的建模說明。10 月份，與某些收購前稅務風險相關的訴訟時效到期，這些風險是穆迪在上一年的併購交易中承擔的。這將對我們 2025 年全年的實際稅率產生一次性約 200 個基點的有利影響。請注意，這項收益將完全被賠償資產的釋放所抵消，因此不會對淨收入或每股盈餘產生任何影響。

Turning to cash flow. We now anticipate our free cash flow to be approximately $2.5 billion, and we are increasing our share repurchase guidance to at least $1.5 billion. That puts us on track to return over 85% of free cash flow to our shareholders this year.

接下來談談現金流。我們現在預計自由現金流約為 25 億美元，並將股票回購預期提高到至少 15 億美元。這將使我們今年能夠向股東返還超過 85% 的自由現金流。

To wrap it up, this quarter's results reflect the strength of our strategy and execution. We are approaching transformative shifts in technology from a position of financial strength, allowing us to invest in innovation while continuing to expand margins and grow revenue as seen again in Q3.

總而言之，本季的業績反映了我們策略和執行的有效性。我們憑藉雄厚的財力迎接技術變革，這使我們能夠投資創新，同時繼續擴大利潤率並增加收入，正如第三季度再次看到的那樣。

And with that, operator, we're now happy to take any questions.

好了，操作員，我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

This is Brendan on for Manav. Just wanted to ask just to get your guys' thoughts on just pros and cons of AI in your Analytics business. It sounds like you had some recent wins, but just curious how you're thinking about seat-based exposure, whether or not it's explicitly tied to your contract or not? And just what you're hearing from your key financial services customers on the topic?

這裡是 Brendan 為 Manav 報道。我只是想問各位，對於人工智慧在你們的分析業務中的優缺點，你們有什麼看法。聽起來你最近取得了一些勝利，但我很好奇你是如何看待席位相關的風險敞口的，無論它是否明確地與你的合約掛鉤？那麼，您從主要金融服務客戶那裡聽到了哪些關於這個主題的回饋呢？

Yes. Brendan. So first of all, we've really never had kind of seat-based exposure. That's generally not the way the contracts have been structured. So AI is not going to be any different.

是的。布倫丹。首先，我們之前從未有過基於座位的接觸機會。合約的結構通常並非如此。所以人工智慧也不會例外。

I would say, maybe just to kind of zoom out in terms of how we're thinking about it and going about it. First of all, we're embedding AI into a bunch of our own workflow solutions and software. Obviously, we've done that with Research Assistant. We now have something like 20 different stand-alone or AI-enabled applications. So we're -- that gives us an opportunity to monetize there.

我想說，或許我們應該從更宏觀的角度來思考和處理這個問題。首先，我們將人工智慧嵌入我們自己的一系列工作流程解決方案和軟體中。顯然，我們已經透過研究助理實現了這一點。我們現在有大約 20 個不同的獨立應用程式或人工智慧應用程式。所以——這給了我們一個從中獲利的機會。

But we also just launched what we call Agentic Solutions. So we've got smart APIs and MCP servers. And think about that as like tools that are built on top of Moody's data. This huge data estate that we talk about all the time, and they can power LLMs and third-party agents with that Moody's data. And then we have been building a suite of highly specialized workflow agents.

但我們也推出了我們稱為 Agentic Solutions 的產品。所以我們擁有智慧 API 和 MCP 伺服器。你可以把這些工具想像成建立在穆迪資料之上的工具。我們一直在談論的這個龐大的數據資產，他們可以利用穆迪的數據為LLM和第三方代理商提供支援。然後，我們一直在建立一套高度專業化的工作流程代理。

We've got more than 50 domain-specific agents already today that leverage our proprietary data and subject matter expertise and support all that automation and can be embedded into customers' internal workflows. I gave one example of that on the call.

目前我們已經擁有 50 多個特定領域的代理，這些代理利用我們專有的數據和專業知識，支援所有這些自動化，並且可以嵌入到客戶的內部工作流程中。我在電話中舉了一個例子。

And I think what you're seeing from us is we have this massive content estate. AI is really an unlock opportunity, and we're trying to meet our customers where they are. Whether they need to have access to that content through our own workflow and supported by AI, whether they want it on partners' platforms, or whether they want it embedded into their own internal AI workflow orchestration.

我認為你們現在看到的是我們擁有龐大的內容資源。人工智慧確實是一個釋放潛力的機會，我們正在努力滿足客戶的需求。無論他們需要透過我們自己的工作流程並在人工智慧的支援下存取該內容，還是希望在合作夥伴的平台上存取該內容，或者希望將其嵌入到他們自己的內部人工智慧工作流程編排中。

So everything we're doing is to try to meet our customers where they are.

因此，我們所做的一切都是為了盡力滿足客戶的需求。

Peter Knudsen, Evercore.

Peter Knudsen，Evercore。

I'm just wondering if you could help me think about to what extent, if any, did third quarter's record issuance reflect pull forward activity? And then within that as well, what you guys are assuming for CLO activity maybe in 4Q, but more broadly in 2026, since that was such a large driver of that upside?

我想請教一下，第三季創紀錄的發行量在多大程度上（如果有的話）反映了提前發行活動？此外，鑑於 CLO 活動是推動成長的主要因素，你們對第四季以及更廣泛意義上的 2026 年的 CLO 活動有何假設？

Yes, I can start with the kind of the pull forward. I would say, and we've talked about this before that there's a lot more pull forward that goes on in spec-grade than there is investment grade. Understandably, right? Because investment-grade issuers tend to always have market access, and that's less true for spec-grade issuers. So we tend to see pull forward more in spec-grade.

是的，我可以從向前拉動的那種方式開始。我想說，我們之前也討論過，投機債券的提前發行比投資等級債券多得多。這可以理解，對吧？因為投資級發行人往往總是能獲得市場准入，而投機級發行人則不然。所以我們往往會看到規格等級的產品推出更多。

I would say the pull forward that we've seen in 2025 is pretty consistent with what we've seen over the last, call it, four years. So it's in line with that. Very little pull forward from investment grade. And as we've talked about, we've got some pretty healthy maturity walls going forward.

我認為，我們在 2025 年看到的這種提前到來的趨勢，與過去四年（姑且這麼說吧）我們看到的趨勢相當一致。所以這是符合的。從投資級評級提升的空間非常有限。正如我們之前討論過的，我們未來將面臨一些相當健康的成熟度瓶頸。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

傑森‧哈斯，富國銀行。

I wanted to focus on the KYC business. Can you talk about what data sets within that business are proprietary? And are you seeing the longer tail of competitors there get stronger by being able to integrate AI? That's a concern that we've been hearing. So I was hoping you could weigh in on that.

我想專注於 KYC 業務。您能談談該公司內部哪些資料集是專有的嗎？您是否注意到，那些能夠整合人工智慧的競爭對手，其規模更大的競爭對手正在變得越來越強大？這是我們一直聽到的一種擔憂。所以，我希望你能就此發表一下看法。

Yes. So there's a few data sets that really go together for our KYC solutions. The first is Orbis, which is our massive company database. And I think it's -- we think of that as derived data, first of all. It's accessed through a global commercial ecosystem, where we've got the rights to use and aggregate the data and then we cleanse it, and we normalize it, and that really enhances the value of all that data. So it's not as easy as just going out and web scraping that content. That's first of all.

是的。因此，我們的 KYC 解決方案確實需要結合幾個資料集。第一個是 Orbis，這是我們龐大的公司資料庫。我認為——首先，我們認為那是衍生數據。我們透過全球商業生態系統存取這些數據，我們擁有使用和聚合這些數據的權利，然後我們對數據進行清洗和標準化，這確實提高了所有這些數據的價值。所以，這並不是簡單地透過網頁抓取就能實現的。這是首先的。

And the second data set that we have is around politically exposed people and risk-relevant people. That's a fairly unique data set that we have. That was originally -- that was actually part of our RDC business that we purchased years ago that was formed by a consortium of banks after 9/11 who wanted to combat terrorist financing.

我們擁有的第二個數據集是關於政治敏感的人群和高風險人群。這是我們擁有的一個相當獨特的數據集。那原本——實際上是我們多年前收購的RDC業務的一部分，該業務是由9/11事件後成立的銀行財團組成的，旨在打擊恐怖主義融資。

And so that business grew out of that. And then the third is our AI curated news. And then I think part of the secret sauce is that we then link that together and we have really the world's best beneficial ownership and hierarchy data. And that really gives our customers a 360-degree view of who they're doing business with, that I think is relatively unique in the marketplace.

於是，這項業務就此發展起來。第三點是我們人工智慧精選的新聞。我認為，成功的秘訣之一在於我們將這些數據連結起來，從而擁有世界上最好的受益所有權和層級數據。這確實能讓我們的客戶360度全方位了解他們的業務夥伴，我認為這在市場上是相對獨特的。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman，摩根大通。

Rob, if you saw, there was a Wall Street Journal article from October 15 that wrote up the Moody's report on refi walls. And the way they portrayed it was for US companies that there was a decline in refi walls. Again, I don't know if you saw the article. It caught my eye.

羅布，如果你看到了，《華爾街日報》10 月 15 日刊登了一篇文章，詳細介紹了穆迪關於再融資牆的報告。他們所描述的情況是，對於美國公司而言，再融資壁壘有所下降。我還是不知道你有沒有看到那篇文章。它吸引了我的目光。

But obviously, that's framed a lot differently than slide 6, where you're seeing a really favorable environment for refi walls. And if you could try to square the difference, that would be helpful and mention something about the US refi walls.

但顯然，這與第 6 張投影片的描述截然不同，第 6 張投影片展示了一個對再融資牆非常有利的環境。如果你能嘗試找出其中的差異，那就很有幫助了，並且提及美國的再融資壁壘。

Yes, Andrew, I think that article was citing US spec-grade, which was down, call it, 5% to 6%. Yes, that's right. So it was really a subset of the broader maturities. And I think I might point out a couple of things that there's actually -- as we kind of look further out, there's actually a significant portion of maturities that are actually a good bit farther than four years out.

是的，安德魯，我認為那篇文章引用的是美國規格級鋼材的價格，下跌了，大概 5% 到 6%。是的，沒錯。所以它實際上是更廣泛的成熟期的一部分。我想指出幾點，實際上——當我們把目光放得更遠一些時，會發現有相當一部分到期日實際上遠超四年。

And that's because of the -- basically the steepening of the yield curve over the last, call it, a year or so. So we've actually seen average tenors shortening. We've seen issuance less than seven years being more attractive than issuance out past kind of 7 to 10 years.

這主要是因為——基本上是過去一年左右殖利率曲線的陡峭化。所以，我們實際上已經看到男高音的平均音調降低了。我們發現，期限少於七年的債券比期限超過七年到十年的債券更具吸引力。

We've seen average tenors shorten up. And all of that ultimately is going to be, I think, positive as we think about the stock of what needs to get refinanced over not only the four-year walls that we quote, but even beyond.

我們發現男高音的平均音調降低了。我認為，這一切最終都將是積極的，因為我們不僅要考慮我們所說的四年期限，還要考慮更長遠的期限，才能確定哪些資產需要再融資。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

Rob, usually during the third quarter, you talked about your early thoughts into 2026 for issuance. And just in light of that, refi walls still healthy, but maybe less of a tailwind next year, and M&A, though, could provide a nice uplift. And then I wanted to also get your thoughts on the data infrastructure financing and if that's going to be a meaningful driver in '26, and how you think about that opportunity overall?

Rob，通常在第三季度，你會談到你對 2026 年發行計畫的初步想法。有鑑於此，再融資市場依然健康，但明年可能不再那麼強勁，併購活動可能會帶來不錯的提振。然後我還想聽聽您對數據基礎設施融資的看法，以及這是否會成為 2026 年的一個重要驅動因素，您如何看待這一機會的整體情況？

Yes. Thanks, Toni. So -- it's -- as always, in October, it's a little too early for us to actually give guidance for next year. But we can kind of tell you how we're thinking about next year. And I would say that, and you've heard me use this kind of framework in years past.

是的。謝謝你，托尼。所以——和往常一樣，在十月，我們現在就對明年做出預測還為時過早。但我們可以大致告訴你們我們對明年的計畫。我會這麼說，而且你們也聽我過去幾年用過類似的框架。

Right now, I think there are more tailwinds than there are headwinds going into 2026. So we're thinking it's going to be a pretty constructive issuance environment into 2026. And let me talk about -- let me start with the tailwinds because we think there are more tailwinds. So first of all, we've got spreads at very tight ranges right now. We have Fed easing, so we have the potential for lowering benchmark rates.

目前，我認為進入 2026 年，順風多於逆風。所以我們認為到 2026 年，債券發行環境將相當有利。讓我談談——讓我先從順風說起，因為我們認為順風會更多。首先，目前價差非常窄。聯準會正在放鬆貨幣政策，因此基準利率有可能下降。

You touched on M&A. We've certainly seen the M&A environment really pick up in the third quarter. You heard Noemie talk about our RAS pipeline is very robust. We're hearing very positive commentary from the bankers about the M&A discussions and pipelines that they have. So 2026 may be the year that we really see not just M&A, but sponsor-backed M&A, come back into the market.

你談到了併購。我們已經看到，併購市場在第三季確實活躍起來。你聽Noemie說過，我們的RAS管道非常穩健。我們從銀行家那裡聽到了很多關於併購談判和專案進展的正面評價。因此，2026 年可能是我們真正看到併購，尤其是由贊助商支持的併購重返市場的一年。

We've talked about what a positive that will be. We do have the potential for further resolution in some of these geopolitical conflicts that I think could provide a little bit more market confidence. Kind of a mixed sentiment really around economic growth, but the current thinking is that we're not looking at a recession, while there's been a little bit of a slowdown, we think the current levels of growth across the G20 are generally sustainable into next year. You mentioned the refi walls.

我們已經討論過這將會帶來多麼正面的影響。我們認為，在某些地緣政治衝突中存在著進一步解決的潛力，這或許能提振一些市場信心。目前人們對經濟成長的看法較為複雜，但普遍認為不會出現衰退。雖然經濟成長有所放緩，但我們認為二十國集團目前的成長水準總體上可以持續到明年。你提到了再融資牆。

And we do think that the default rates will continue to decline. They're a little bit above historical averages at the moment. But we look for that to continue to decline. So all that feels pretty good. And just in terms of what the headwinds could be. I mentioned economic growth. And obviously, we're looking at things like job growth and consumer confidence and spending to get a sense of whether there could be actually a further deceleration of economic growth.

我們認為違約率將會繼續下降。目前它們略高於歷史平均。但我們預計這種情況會繼續下降。這一切感覺都挺不錯的。以及可能遇到的不利因素。我提到了經濟成長。顯然，我們正在關注就業成長、消費者信心和支出等因素，以了解經濟成長是否可能進一步放緩。

Obviously, we've got some headline risk around global trade dynamics, particularly with the US and China. That creates volatility in the markets. That's usually a negative for issuance. It can create some risk-off environments. It can widen out spreads. So in general, Toni, feeling pretty good about it. And you asked the last thing you asked about data centers. That's why we talk about these deep currents.

顯然，全球貿易動態存在一些重大風險，尤其是中美貿易關係。這會導致市場波動。這通常對發行不利。它可以創造一些規避風險的環境。它可以擴大傳播範圍。總的來說，托尼感覺還不錯。你問的最後一個問題是關於資料中心的。這就是我們談論這些深層暗流的原因。

You're seeing tens and hundreds of billions of dollars going into infrastructure investment and particularly around digital infrastructure and data centers. And we're having a lot of dialogue all around the world, and we expect that to continue into 2026. So that will be a deep current that continues.

你會看到數百億甚至數千億美元投入基礎設施建設中，尤其是在數位基礎設施和資料中心方面。我們正在世界各地開展大量對話，我們預計這種對話將持續到 2026 年。所以這將是一股持續不斷的深層暗流。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

Alex Kramm，瑞銀集團。

Just coming back to Moody's Analytics. A lot of things going on there. It seems that things are maybe tracking a little bit slower than your expectations at the beginning of the year. Please correct me if I'm wrong. And I know you mentioned a couple of things, but maybe just talk about relative to the expectations at the beginning of the year, what maybe are the things that surprised you negatively? And how we should be thinking about those items as we get into 2026?

再說回穆迪分析公司。那裡發生了很多事。看來事情的進展可能比你年初的預期還要慢。如果我錯了，請指正。我知道你提到了一些事情，但或許可以談談相對於年初的預期，有哪些事情讓你感到意外，甚至失望？那麼，展望2026年，我們該如何看待這些問題呢？

Yes. Maybe, Alex, I'll start and then Rob can add if needed. So if I look at the top line for the third quarter in MA, we were right on our expectations in Q3. You may recall, earlier in the year, we took slightly down our guidance for the full year because of some attrition in US government.

是的。或許，Alex，我可以先開始，如果需要的話，Rob可以再補充。所以，如果我看一下MA第三季的營收數據，我們第三季的業績完全符合預期。您可能還記得，今年早些時候，由於美國政府人員的流失，我們略微下調了全年的業績預期。

And then -- which affected mostly KYC and our Data & Information line. But since then, we've been pretty consistent with our expectations. If you look at ARR growth of 8%, very in line with the second quarter. We have a strong pipeline for the fourth quarter. Growing nicely, very strong coverage.

然後——這主要影響了 KYC 和我們的數據與資訊業務線。但從那時起，我們的預期一直相當一致。如果你看一下 8% 的 ARR 成長率，這與第二季非常一致。我們第四季的項目儲備充足。長勢良好，覆蓋力強。

So pretty heavy weighted in December, but I think there's a very strong focus on execution. The way we look at the portfolio, I know there's a few puts and takes in each of the different lines. But overall, we're managing to a high single-digit growth. We're investing in our lending, underwriting, KYC for corporate. We had a few very nice wins in the third quarter.

所以12月份的權重相當高，但我認為重點在於執行力。從我們看待投資組合的方式來看，我知道每條不同的投資線中都存在著一些賣出和買入的機會。但總體而言，我們實現了接近兩位數的成長。我們正在加大對企業貸款、承銷和 KYC 的投入。我們在第三節取得了一些非常漂亮的勝利。

So that balances out to a high single-digit growth, and we're pretty confident with the outlook for the full year. And we'll talk about next year, a bit more color in February, but we're delivering as expected.

因此，最終實現了接近兩位數的成長，我們對全年的前景相當有信心。明年我們再詳細說，二月會公佈更多細節，但目前一切都在預期中進行。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

Scott Wurtzel，Wolfe Research。

Just wanted to ask one on private credit. We're starting to hear more -- see more headlines, hear more concerns about just the health of private credit. I'm wondering if you can talk about how you see that potentially impacting your growth there?

只是想問一下關於私人信貸的問題。我們開始聽到更多—看到更多新聞標題，聽到更多對私人信貸健康狀況的擔憂。我想請您談談您認為這可能會對您在那裡的發展產生哪些影響？

Like I think there is potentially a school of thought that if there is more concern around the health there, there could be more demand for understanding of risk and ratings. There could also be more debt, as you said, moving from public or private to public markets. Just wondering if you can kind of tease out some of the potential ramifications of that?

我認為可能存在這樣一種觀點：如果人們更關注當地的健康問題，那麼對風險和評級的理解需求就會更高。正如你所說，債務可能會從公共或私人市場轉移到公共市場，導致更多債務的產生。我想知道您能否大致分析一下這可能會帶來的一些後果？

Yes, Scott, it's Rob. I think you started to nail it there. We've been talking for a number of these calls about how important it is to have a rigorous third-party independent assessment of credit risk in the private credit market. And that was the driver behind what we did with MSCI. And it's interesting.

是的，史考特，我是羅布。我覺得你這部分說得挺到位的。在之前的幾次電話會議中，我們一直在討論對私人信貸市場進行嚴格的第三方獨立信用風險評估的重要性。這就是我們與MSCI合作的初衷。這很有趣。

I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we don't have a lot of rating exposure in the direct lending market, right? And that's, again, one of the reasons that we partnered with MSCI to be able to provide investors with that third-party view. And I mentioned -- so I'd say two things. Whenever you start to see a little bit of credit stress in the market, and I talked about, at least in the public markets, the spec-grade default rate is higher than historical averages. So you can imagine that there's similar stress in the private credit market.

我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到過，我們在直接貸款市場並沒有太多的評級風險敞口，對吧？這也是我們與 MSCI 合作，為投資人提供第三方觀點的原因之一。我之前提到過——所以我想說兩件事。每當市場開始出現一些信貸壓力時（我之前也提到過，至少在公開市場，投機債券的違約率高於歷史平均），情況就會有所不同。所以你可以想像，私人信用市場也面臨類似的壓力。

That drives more demand for credit insight and research. We see that with the usage of our website and all sorts of thing, the engagement that we have with investors. So I would say that's true. And then second, you're right. I mean, we're now seeing a little bit of a of flow back into the public markets because at the end of the day, those coupons that you can get in the public markets are typically represent a fairly substantial savings versus funding in the private markets.

這將推動對信貸洞察和研究的更大需求。我們看到，透過我們網站的使用以及各種方式，我們與投資者之間的互動。所以我認為這是真的。其次，你說得對。我的意思是，我們現在看到資金正逐漸回流到公開市場，因為歸根結底，在公開市場獲得的那些優惠券通常比在私募市場融資節省相當可觀的費用。

So I think we could see an ebb and flow between the private and public markets. But I think we're pretty well positioned to serve the needs of investors and issuers, whether it's in the private market or the public market. And that's what we've really been working on over the last, call it, two years.

所以我認為我們可能會看到私人市場和公共市場之間出現此消彼長的變化。但我認為，無論是在私募市場或公開市場，我們都能很好地滿足投資者和發行人的需求。而這正是我們在過去兩年一直在努力的方向。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO資本市場。

I just wanted to shift back to the MA discussion you talked about a bit earlier. Noemie, I think you said that you're managing MA growth top line to high single digits. If I remember correctly, before you came, there was an Investor Day, I think the medium-term guidance for that business was low to mid-teens. Has that changed? Or should we be looking more medium-term MA growth in the high single digits?

我只是想回到你之前提到的碩士討論主題。Noemie，我記得你說過你正在努力將 MA 的營收成長控制在個位數高位。如果我沒記錯的話，在你來之前，公司舉辦了一場投資者日活動，我記得當時對這家公司的中期業績預期是十幾到十幾的水平。有改變嗎？或者我們應該關注中期移動平均線在高個位數的成長？

Yes. We've updated our medium-term outlook for MA earlier this year in February. So we're looking at a high single-digit growth for ARR and revenue. That said, there's different dynamics within the portfolio. We are obviously having -- printing more higher growth rates in areas where we're strategically investing.

是的。今年2月，我們更新了對馬薩諸塞州的中期展望。因此，我們預計 ARR 和收入將實現接近兩位數的成長。也就是說，投資組合內部存在著不同的動態因素。顯然，我們在進行策略性投資的領域，正在印製更多成長率更高的產品。

And that was also the logic behind the restructuring program and looking at our organizational footprint, the way we deploy our engineering teams, the way we deploy our product groups, our sellers to the areas where we think we can generate higher growth.

這也是重組計畫背後的邏輯，我們需要審視我們的組織架構、工程團隊的部署方式、產品團隊的部署方式以及銷售人員的部署，並將他們派往我們認為能夠實現更高成長的地區。

But overall, the growth rate is expected to be high single digit. And we've also expanded margin quite significantly. We've updated that also in February, and we are now very well on track to meet those commitments. As a matter of fact, we've increased our full year guidance for MA margin to approximately 33%. So that's another thing we've also updated along the top line.

但總體而言，預計成長率將達到較高的個位數。而且我們的利潤率也大幅提升。我們在二月也更新了相關訊息，目前我們正按計劃穩步推進，並有望實現這些承諾。事實上，我們已將全年 MA 利潤率預期提高至約 33%。這是我們沿著頂線更新的另一件事。

Yes. And I would just say, we talked to a lot of investors over the years, and we had heard about this idea of the kind of the sweet spot being kind of high single-digit growth and getting some further margin expansion. And so that's what you see reflected in the medium-term targets, and that's where what you see us executing on.

是的。我想說的是，這些年來我們和很多投資者談過，我們聽說過這樣一種觀點：理想的成長點是接近兩位數的成長率，並且利潤率還要進一步擴大。這就是您在中期目標中看到的體現，也是我們正在執行的目標。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber，Huber Research Partners。

Rob, I want to ask you, there's a school of thought out there with investors for the last year plus that AI on a net basis is bad for your company and for other information services stocks. So I want to give you a chance to just talk about that, about the moats around your businesses both on the Ratings side as well as MA, why you could fight that off any new potential entrants out there?

羅布，我想問你，過去一年多來，投資人中有一種觀點認為，人工智慧整體上對貴公司和其他資訊服務類股票不利。所以我想給你一個機會談談這方面，談談你們在評級和市場准入方面所構築的護城河，以及你們為什麼能夠抵禦任何潛在的新進入者？

And then secondly, I just want to quickly ask, what in your mind was better about debt issuance so far this year versus your original expectations coming into the year?

其次，我只想快速問一下，您認為今年迄今為止的債務發行情況與您最初的預期相比有哪些改進？

All right. So first, on the AI is bad for our business. I'd love to double-click with you on that. I just don't see that. I've been pretty consistent about -- when you think about, we have a massive mostly proprietary data and analytics estate.

好的。首先，人工智慧對我們的業務不利。我很樂意和你一起雙擊這個按鈕。我就是沒看到這一點。我一直以來都堅持一個觀點——想想看，我們擁有龐大的、大部分是專有的數據和分析資產。

And remember what anchors that, Craig, is it starts with the Ratings agency. We're producing unique proprietary rating content and research every single day. That is our largest content set. And I talked about Orbis and how it's not just aggregating publicly available company data. This is a complex curated web of information providers where you have to have the rights to this data, and then we're aggregating it and normalizing it and creating value.

克雷格，記住，這一切的基礎是評級機構。我們每天都在製作獨特的專有評級內容和研究報告。這是我們最大的內容庫。我還談到了 Orbis，以及它不僅僅是聚合公開可用的公司資料。這是一個由資訊提供者組成的複雜而精心策劃的網絡，你必須擁有這些數據的權利，然後我們對其進行聚合、標準化並創造價值。

And even where we've got workflow software, right? So let's talk about our insurance franchise. Yes, we're delivering our solutions through software. But at the core of what we do in insurance are, I would say, mission-critical models, right? It's the AXIS actuarial models, and it's the RMS physical risk and catastrophe models.

即使我們已經有了工作流程軟體，對吧？那麼，我們來談談我們的保險特許經營業務吧。是的，我們透過軟體提供解決方案。但我認為，保險業務的核心是關鍵任務模型，對吧？這是 AXIS 精算模型，也是 RMS 物理風險與巨災模型。

That is really, really unique IP that's delivered through software. And so Craig, I actually think about, in some ways, we have a lot of this content that has been effectively trapped in our workflow software, right? If you wanted to get access to our cat models, you had to be a subscriber to our software, and you're a cat modeler. Guess what? Now we have the ability to democratize that access to this content to comingle the access and get unique insights.

這是透過軟體交付的真正獨特的智慧財產權。所以克雷格，我其實覺得，在某種程度上，我們有很多內容實際上都被困在了我們的工作流程軟體中，對吧？如果你想獲得我們的貓模型，你必須是我們軟體的訂閱用戶，並且你必須是貓模型製作者。你猜怎麼著？現在我們有能力讓更多人能夠平等地獲取這些內容，從而混合不同的訪問權限並獲得獨特的見解。

So it makes it, a much easier to access our content in many more channels, as you heard me talk about. And that's going to open up new ways for us to monetize the content on different platforms, with different customer segments, where there's different value that they derive out of our content. And it's also going to allow us to have unique insights as this content is comingled. So I feel very good about AI.

所以，正如我剛才所說，這使得透過更多管道存取我們的內容變得更加容易。這將為我們開闢新的途徑，讓我們能夠在不同的平台上，針對不同的客戶群，透過內容實現內容變現，因為他們可以從我們的內容中獲得不同的價值。而且，由於這些內容是混合在一起的，它也能讓我們獲得獨特的洞見。所以我對人工智慧感覺非常好。

And that's why, Craig, we've been really trying to be so front footed on this from back in 2022. It's because we believe that this ultimately is an unlock. And we've talked about this on these calls. It takes a little bit of time when we're working with the regulated financial industries, but we are seeing some good signs of traction.

所以，克雷格，從 2022 年開始，我們就一直努力在這方面保持主動。因為我們相信這最終會是一個突破口。我們在之前的電話會議中也討論過這個問題。與受監管的金融業合作需要一些時間，但我們已經看到了一些很好的進展跡象。

Your second question was, what is driving the issuance? I'd say, look, in the first four months of the year, obviously April, we had a lot of volatility in the market with the tariffs. That was, in a way, kind of a lost month, right? And we hadn't factored that into the guidance at the time. But you've seen, I think -- and you see it with the equity markets. The markets have gotten much more comfortable with the current environment.

你的第二個問題是，發行債券的驅動因素是什麼？我想說，你看，今年前四個月，尤其是四月份，由於關稅問題，市場波動很大。從某種意義上來說，那一個月算是白白浪費了，對吧？當時我們並沒有將這一點納入指導方針中。但我想你已經看到了——在股票市場中也能看到這一點。市場已經更加適應當前的環境。

You've seen -- I said default rates are a little bit above average, but still fairly close to the long-term average. So spreads are tight, and you've got a real pickup in M&A activity. And you remember, back in February, we had talked about our M&A assumptions and that this would be back half loaded. So I think we are starting to see that M&A volume and activity that's supporting issuance and business investment that we had been thinking we would see back in that call in February. It's just that we hadn't anticipated the volatility in the first half of the year.

你已經看到——我說違約率略高於平均水平，但仍然相當接近長期平均水平。因此，買賣價差收窄，併購活動也明顯增加。你還記得嗎，早在二月份，我們就討論過我們對併購的假設，當時我們預測這筆交易將以後半部分的形式進行。所以我認為我們開始看到併購交易量和活動正在支撐發行和商業投資，這正是我們在2月的電話會議上所預期的。只是我們沒有預料到上半年市場波動會這麼大。

Yes. And to that point, we -- if you look at our Q4 implied guidance for MIS, that's pretty consistent with what we had at the beginning of the year. We've always had a pretty strong fourth quarter with the low teens MIS transaction revenue growth, and that's been pretty consistent throughout the year.

是的。就這一點而言，如果您看一下我們第四季度對 MIS 的隱含預期，您會發現它與我們年初的預期非常一致。我們第四季的MIS交易收入一直保持著相當強勁的成長，增幅在兩位數左右，而且這一成長在全年都相當穩定。

Russell Quelch, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

羅素·奎爾奇，羅斯柴爾德公司雷德本。

Noemie, you put out some headwinds around slowing retention and sales driving that slowdown in the insurance ARR. And I wonder if you can elaborate on that a little bit more, given insurance has been a strong pillar of MA growth over the last 12 months. Wondering how you're thinking about the insurance growth into 2026, given that there's a slowdown in premium growth in the underlying P&C market and normalization in storm activity.

Noemie，你造成了一些不利因素，例如客戶留存率和銷售額下降，從而導致保險業 ARR 成長放緩。鑑於保險業在過去 12 個月一直是 MA 成長的強勁支柱，我想請您再詳細闡述一下。鑑於財產險市場保費成長放緩以及風暴活動趨於正常化，我想知道您如何看待 2026 年的保險業成長。

Yes. Insurance, there's a few dynamics going on in the third quarter and that translates into the full year outlook that I talked about. We have actuarial data and models, so AXIS is trending very nicely. We have high double-digit growth. We continue to see customers switching to a high-definition models, and that's been really driving growth this quarter.

是的。保險業方面，第三季出現了一些動態變化，這也會影響我之前提到的全年展望。我們有精算資料和模型，所以 AXIS 的發展趨勢非常好。我們實現了兩位數的高速成長。我們繼續看到客戶轉向高清型號，這確實推動了本季的成長。

The RMS and the IRP migration, we had a lot of significant transactions in 2024 and early 2025. There's a bit of pull forward of pipeline. So now there's a digestion going on with our customers. We are going after the largest -- the remaining pool of customers who haven't yet moved to the platform. So that's one driver.

RMS 和 IRP 遷移，我們在 2024 年和 2025 年初有許多重大交易。管道建​​設方面存在一些前期推進的趨勢。因此，現在我們的客戶正在消化這個過程。我們的目標是最大的—尚未轉移到該平台的剩餘客戶群。這就是一個驅動因素。

So we have a lot of pipelines there that we expect will drive growth of that business in long term. There's just a -- it's not so much of a headwind. In fact, it's just more like tough comparison from 2024, where we had a lot of those customers migrating into the RMS platform, and we still have a lot of pipeline with the remainder as we head into 2026.

因此，我們在那裡有很多管道項目，我們預計這些項目將在長期內推動該業務的成長。只是——其實逆風不算大。事實上，這更像是與 2024 年的艱難比較，因為屆時我們將有許多客戶遷移到 RMS 平台，到了 2026 年，我們仍然有許多剩餘客戶的遷移計畫。

Yes. Russell, I would also -- I mean, I spent a lot of time with our insurance customers. And I feel pretty bullish about what we can do in that industry. You've got insurers who I would say, are behind the banks in terms of their adoption of digital platforms. Noemie talked about moving to the cloud, but also just sophisticated third-party data and analytics.

是的。Russell，我也會——我的意思是，我花了很多時間和我們的保險客戶在一起。我對我們在該行業的發展前景非常樂觀。我認為，保險公司在採用數位平台方面落後於銀行。Noemie 談到了遷移到雲端，以及複雜的第三方資料和分析。

And so there's a lot of interest from insurers and thinking about how they can leverage a lot of our content to get signal value to help them understand risk. And you've seen us broaden from really a property focus with our cat business. And obviously, we have a life business as well. But in the P&C business, we've moved into casualty. There's a lot of interest from insurers to have a more data-driven approach to thinking about casualty risk, and that's what we did when we acquired Praedicat.

因此，保險公司對此非常感興趣，並思考如何利用我們的大量內容來獲取訊號價值，以幫助他們了解風險。您也看到了我們從最初的房地產業務擴展到了貓咪業務。當然，我們還有生活方面的工作。但在財產保險業務方面，我們已經涉足意外傷害領域。保險公司對採用更數據驅動的方法來思考意外傷害風險非常感興趣，而這正是我們收購 Praedicat 時所做的。

We've pulled together a cyber working group across the industry. I think there's still a lot of opportunity for that market to grow in terms of GWP and so do the insurers, but they need to have models and data that they can be very confident in to help that market grow. So I feel very good about it over, let's call it, the medium term.

我們已經組建了一個涵蓋整個行業的網路安全工作小組。我認為，就總保費收入而言，該市場仍有很大的成長機會，保險公司也這麼認為，但他們需要有非常可靠的模型和數據來幫助該市場成長。因此，從中期來看，我對此感覺非常好。

Sean Kennedy, Mizuho.

Sean Kennedy，瑞穗銀行。

Nice results. I had a follow-up on Moody's Analytics. So I believe last quarter, you mentioned that sales cycles were lengthening a bit. So I wanted to ask if anything has changed there as we got further away from the spring. And also how is the general demand environment for banking?

結果不錯。我對穆迪分析公司進行了追蹤。所以，我記得上個季度您提到過銷售週期略有延長。所以我想問，隨著春天越來越遠，那裡的情況是否有改變。此外，銀行業的整體需求環境如何？

Yes. So I'll start with the demand environment for banking is actually pretty good. We're having some very good discussions and wins, frankly, with our banking customers. I talked about that one kind of marquee deal. But actually, we're seeing very good engagement and growth from our biggest banking customers for the reasons that I talked about.

是的。首先，我要說的是，銀行業的需求環境其實相當不錯。坦白說，我們與銀行客戶的討論非常順利，也取得了一些成果。我談到了那種標誌性的交易。但實際上，正如我剛才所說，我們看到最大的銀行客戶的參與度和成長都非常高。

And so I'd say I'm not sure there's much of a change from the last quarter in terms of how we talked about kind of sales cycles. I think we talked about there was a little bit of a lengthening in the sales cycles over the, call it, last year. But there was also an expansion of the size and the complexity and number of products that we're pulling together as solutions for our customers as well. So to me, when I look at those together, I feel fairly comfortable when those things are moving in tandem. And I would say -- the last thing I'd say, I spend a lot of time with our customers.

所以我覺得，就我們談論銷售週期的方式而言，與上個季度相比，並沒有太大的變化。我想我們討論過，去年銷售週期略有延長。但同時，我們為客戶提供的解決方案的規模、複雜性和產品數量也有所增加。所以對我來說，當我把這些放在一起看時，如果這些事情能夠同步進行，我會感到相當舒服。最後我想說的是，我花了很多時間和我們的客戶在一起。

There's a lot of focus right now on growth. And that, at the end of the day, and I get it -- we get asked about, is it regulatory drivers that drive the growth of your solutions? There's nothing better than being able to talk to your customers about how you can drive growth. And that ultimately means that there's a more positive sentiment across the customers as they're thinking about the future and investing in their business.

目前人們非常關注成長。歸根究底，我明白──我們經常被問到，推動你們解決方案成長的因素是監管驅動因素嗎？沒有什麼比能夠與客戶探討如何推動成長更好的了。最終這意味著，客戶在考慮未來和投資自身業務時，普遍抱持著更積極的心態。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

Jeff Meuler，Baird。

Rob, you had a couple of call-outs on climate solution wins outside of P&C insurance. Obviously, that was one of the thesis points of the RMS acquisition. Is the message behind the message that you feel like you're at an inflection point where you expect that to really start taking off? Or are you just kind of conveying some large wins that you had in the quarter? And then just to be clear, does that revenue, when you sell climate solutions outside of insurance, does that get reported within insurance or elsewhere?

羅布，你在財產保險以外的氣候解決方案方面取得了一些成就，並因此受到讚揚。顯然，這是RMS收購案的論點之一。你話裡話外的意思是不是，你覺得自己正處於一個轉捩點，期待著事情能真正開始起飛？還是你只是想傳達本季取得的一些重大成果？那麼，為了明確起見，當您在保險之外銷售氣候解決方案時，這部分收入是在保險業內部報告，還是在其他地方報告？

I guess one of the reasons I brought it up is that was -- as you noted, that was one of the thesis that we had when we bought RMS was that this content, this -- the models and the data to help institutions really understand the physical risk of extreme events was going to be important beyond just the insurance business over time.

我想我提起這個問題的原因之一是——正如你所說，這是我們收購 RMS 時的一個論點，即這些內容、這些模型和數據能夠幫助機構真正了解極端事件的物理風險，隨著時間的推移，它們的重要性將超越保險業務。

And so we -- I've been trying to give some examples of where we've had some wins of banks who are taking these solutions. I would say that, that started with the biggest, most sophisticated banks who are using the RMS models. We've been thinking about how do we take some of that content and package it differently so that we can make it more useful and available to a broader segment of banks over time. But you can -- we hear from banks as they're underwriting loans that they're interested in understanding the physical risk of the collateral they're taking.

因此，我們—我一直在嘗試舉一些例子，說明採用這些解決方案的銀行取得了哪些成功。我認為，這始於那些使用RMS模型的規模最大、技術最先進的銀行。我們一直在思考如何將其中一些內容以不同的方式包裝起來，以便隨著時間的推移，能夠使其對更廣泛的銀行群體更有用和更易於獲取。但你可以——我們從銀行在承銷貸款時了解到，他們有興趣了解他們所接受的抵押品的實際風險。

We hear from corporates that they are interested in understanding the physical risk of locations across their supply chain and across their own physical footprint. We're engaging with governments who want to understand the vulnerability of communities to various extreme events. And of course, we're starting to hear that from investors as well.

我們從企業那裡了解到，他們有興趣了解其供應鏈和自身業務範圍內各個地點的實際風險。我們正在與各國政府溝通，希望能了解社區在各種極端事件面前的脆弱性。當然，我們也開始從投資人那裡聽到類似的說法。

So there's some product development work as we start to see the demand from these other sectors to be able to package the content in a way that's useful for those different customer segments. So I'd say it's still relatively early, but I am giving examples of demand outside of insurance. And we're going to continue to lean in on that.

因此，當我們開始看到其他行業的需求時，我們就開始進行一些產品開發工作，以便能夠以對不同客戶群有用的方式打包內容。所以我覺得現在下結論還太早，但我舉的例子也說明了保險業以外的需求。我們將繼續重視這一點。

The last point on -- 2 points, actually, on your question about where that the revenue goes, it goes into the insurance line within Decision Solutions. And then the other thing I'd add is we -- when we acquired RMS, we had revenue synergy targets that we've published, and we are well on track to achieve those.

關於您提出的收入去向的問題，最後一點——實際上是兩點——是收入會進入 Decision Solutions 的保險業務。另外，我想補充一點，當我們收購 RMS 時，我們制定了收入協同效應目標並已公佈，而且我們目前正朝著實現這些目標穩步前進。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I will turn the call back to Rob for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給羅布，讓他做最後的總結演講。

Okay. That's a wrap. Thanks, everybody, for joining. We'll talk to you next quarter. Bye.

好的。就這樣結束了。謝謝大家的參與。我們下個季度再跟你談。再見。

Bye.

再見。

This concludes Moody's Corporation third quarter 2025 earnings call. Immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you. You may now disconnect

穆迪公司2025年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。通話結束後，公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源部分發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，電話會議結束後，穆迪投資者關係網站將提供重播。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連線了。