穆迪 (MCO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation first quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers following the presentation.

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。此時，通知您本次會議正在錄音，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。應公司的要求，我們將在演講結束後開放會議以供問答。

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the first quarter 2025, as well as our revised outlook for select metrics for full year 2025. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2025 年第一季的業績，以及我們對 2025 年全年部分指標的修訂展望。收益新聞稿和本次電話會議的簡報均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliations between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US-GAAP. I call your attention to the Safe Harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將提供非公認會計準則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天早上提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議中引用的所有調整後指標與美國公認會計準則 (US-GAAP) 之間的對帳情況。我請您注意安全港語言，它可以在我們的收益報告結尾處找到。

Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the management's discussion and analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and in other SEC filings made by the company which are available on our website and on the SEC's website.

今天的言論可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性聲明。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告中討論的風險因素以及公司提交的其他 SEC 文件中討論的風險因素，這些文件可在我們的網站和 SEC 的網站上查閱。

These, together with the Safe Harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements. I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in the listener only mode.

這些內容與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能只能以聽眾模式參加電話會議。

Over to you, Rob.

交給你了，羅布。

Thanks, Shivani, and thank you very much everybody for joining today's call this morning. I'm going to kick off with some high-level takeaways on Moody's first quarter performance and an update on our 2025 guidance. And then I'm going to share why we're confident in our market position and how we're strengthening the earnings power of the business. And after our prepared remarks, as always, Amy and I will be glad to take your questions.

謝謝，Shivani，非常感謝大家參加今天上午的電話會議。我將首先介紹穆迪第一季業績的一些高層要點以及我們 2025 年指引的最新情況。然後我將分享我們為何對我們的市場地位充滿信心以及我們如何增強業務的獲利能力。在我們準備好的發言之後，和往常一樣，艾米和我將很高興回答你們的提問。

So on to the results. I think it's safe to say that the past few weeks have been more tumultuous than many have anticipated at the start of the year, and there's certainly a lot of noise in the environment with equity markets demonstrating much greater volatility in a headline-driven environment. And understandably that's making it harder for many businesses to feel confident in making important investment decisions.

接下來看看結果。我認為可以肯定地說，過去幾週比許多人在年初預期的更加動盪，而且環境中肯定存在很多噪音，股票市場在頭條新聞驅動的環境中表現出更大的波動性。可以理解的是，這使得許多企業在做出重要投資決策時更加缺乏信心。

But as you've heard me say before on these calls, it is times like these when our customers turn to us the most, and that's because we've got a vast reservoir of proprietary data and insights, mission critical software solutions, and decades of experience and understanding credit impacts to the countries, industries and companies, and we've done this all over the world across all sorts of economic cycles and geopolitical events, and this time is no different.

但正如你們之前在這些電話會議上聽到我所說的那樣，正是在這樣的時刻，我們的客戶最需要我們，這是因為我們擁有大量的專有數據和見解、關鍵任務軟體解決方案，以及數十年的經驗和對信貸對國家、行業和公司影響的理解，我們已經在世界各地經歷了各種經濟週期和地緣政治事件，都做到了這一點，這一次也不例外。

So amidst this backdrop, we delivered some very strong results in the first quarter. We achieved a record $1.9 billion in first quarter '25 revenue. That was up 8% year-over-year. In fact, both of our businesses grew revenue at 8%.

因此，在這種背景下，我們在第一季取得了非常強勁的業績。2025 年第一季我們的營收達到了創紀錄的 19 億美元。與去年同期相比成長了 8%。事實上，我們兩家公司的營收都成長了 8%。

And with some very disciplined expense management, Moody's adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%. That's up 100 basis points from the first quarter of last year. And adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% to $3.83 and that really is the power of this franchise shining through.

透過一些非常嚴格的費用管理，穆迪的調整後營業利潤率達到了 51.7%。這比去年第一季上漲了 100 個基點。調整後的稀釋每股收益成長 14% 至 3.83 美元，這確實彰顯了該特許經營權的實力。

Now turning to MIS, we delivered 8% revenue growth on issuance growth of 9%, and MIS achieved its highest ever quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 66%, and that was up 140 basis points.

現在轉向 MIS，我們的營收成長了 8%，發行量成長了 9%，MIS 實現了有史以來最高的季度營收 11 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率為 66%，成長了 140 個基點。

At this quarter, Private Credit was a meaningful contributor to growth, particularly in structured finance. In fact, in the first quarter of '25, we had 143 Private Credit related deals. That's up from 69 in the first quarter of '24. Roughly a third of that volume came from Private Credit backed ABS, CLOs, and RMBS structured finance issuance, and then BDCs and Fund Finance was almost another one-third.

本季度，私人信貸對成長做出了重要貢獻，尤其是在結構性融資方面。事實上，2025 年第一季度，我們有 143 筆私人信貸相關交易。這一數字高於 2024 年第一季的 69 家。其中約三分之一來自私人信貸支持的 ABS、CLO 和 RMBS 結構性融資發行，然後 BDC 和基金融資又佔近三分之一。

In fact, 20% of first quarter revenue growth in structured finance was attributable to Private Credit. So you can see Private Credit emerging as a tailwind for our Ratings business.

事實上，結構化融資第一季營收成長的 20% 歸功於私人信貸。因此，您可以看到私人信貸正在成為我們評級業務的順風。

And amidst all the recent market uncertainty, engagement levels for our research and webcasts are at a rate 2x to 3x the levels that we normally see in a more stable environment. In fact, last week's ratings webinar on tariffs attracted roughly 3,000 registrants across 89 countries.

在最近市場充滿不確定性的情況下，我們研究和網路廣播的參與度是更穩定環境中通常水平的 2 倍到 3 倍。事實上，上週的關稅評級網路研討會吸引了來自 89 個國家的約 3,000 名註冊者。

Now zooming out, the deep currents that I talked about on the fourth quarter call remain intact, and for MIS that includes Private Credit, transition finance, AI-driven infrastructure investment, and emerging in domestic debt markets. And these areas require significant investment in debt financing, and this hasn't changed despite the recent turbulence.

現在，從廣度來看，我在第四季度電話會議上談到的深層趨勢依然完好，而對於 MIS 來說，這包括私人信貸、過渡融資、人工智慧驅動的基礎設施投資以及新興的國內債務市場。這些領域需要大量的債務融資投資，儘管最近出現了動盪，但這種情況並沒有改變。

In a recent report on Private Credit, our Ratings team highlighted that data center debt issuance in the asset-backed finance market reached $4 billion in the first quarter of 2025 alone versus the $8.4 billion issued for all of 2024.

在最近一份關於私人信貸的報告中，我們的評級團隊強調，光是 2025 年第一季度，資產支持融資市場中的資料中心債務發行量就達到了 40 億美元，而 2024 年全年的發行量為 84 億美元。

In the first quarter of '25, we rated a $2 billion data center CMBS deal in the US and that represents the larger scale we expect to see more frequently to finance digital infrastructure. We're actively evaluating several data center financing structures today across a number of teams and regions, and these financings are early stage, but they are increasing in both their scale and complexity, and they're a good example of a deep current that we expect will drive debt financing volumes for the foreseeable future.

在 2025 年第一季度，我們對美國一項價值 20 億美元的資料中心 CMBS 交易進行了評級，這代表著我們預計將更頻繁地看到的更大規模的數位基礎設施融資。我們目前正在積極評估多個團隊和地區的幾種資料中心融資結構，這些融資尚處於早期階段，但其規模和複雜性都在增加，它們是深層潮流的一個很好的例子，我們預計在可預見的未來，這種潮流將推動債務融資量的成長。

Now, switching to MA, ARR growth was 9%, again led by Decision Solutions where ARR grew 12%. Recurring revenue increased another notch to 96% of total MA revenue and we continue to make investments in product development, platform engineering, and sales capacity in our strategic growth areas.

現在，轉向 MA，ARR 成長率為 9%，其中決策解決方案再次領先，ARR 成長率為 12%。經常性收入進一步增加，達到 MA 總收入的 96%，我們將繼續在策略成長領域的產品開發、平台工程和銷售能力方面進行投資。

We're also executing on our ambitious cost efficiency program designed to significantly enhance MA's operating leverage over the coming years. And for 2025, we remain on track to deliver a full year adjusted operating margin of between 32% to 33%.

我們也正在執行雄心勃勃的成本效率計劃，旨在大幅提高未來幾年 MA 的營運槓桿。預計到 2025 年，我們仍將實現全年調整後營業利潤率在 32% 至 33% 之間的目標。

Now underpinning the 9% ARR growth is a very strong first quarter in terms of new business execution, and I want to share a couple of sales wins from this past quarter that illustrate that.

現在，9% 的 ARR 成長的基礎是第一季新業務執行非常強勁，我想分享上個季度的一些銷售勝利來證明這一點。

First was a multi-million dollar KYC deal with a major global bank to help them strengthen financial crime compliance. And we've grown this relationship by more than 2x since 2020 by expanding the breadth and depth of our products being used across the bank from credit rating feeds to economic data to early warning detection.

首先是與一家大型全球銀行達成數百萬美元的 KYC 協議，以幫助他們加強金融犯罪合規性。自 2020 年以來，我們透過擴大整個銀行使用的產品的廣度和深度（從信用評級資訊到經濟數據再到預警檢測），將這種關係​​擴大了 2 倍以上。

And building on that, we were recently selected as a global strategic data partner for their KYC program based on the high quality of our interconnected data sets, and that's a very strong referential customer for other major global banks.

在此基礎上，我們最近憑藉互聯資料集的高品質被選為其 KYC 計劃的全球策略資料合作夥伴，這對其他主要全球銀行來說是一個非常強大的參考客戶。

The second was our first agentic AI sale in the KYC space with a major crypto trading platform that handles about a $1 billion a day in trading volume. In the first quarter, we signed a multi-million dollar contract across a suite of our solutions, and they're the first customer using agent review, which is our new KYC AI screening agent that helps onboard customers more accurately and quickly. And given all the manual labor in the KYC space, AI agents have a very compelling value proposition, and we're excited about this opportunity.

第二次是我們在 KYC 領域與一家大型加密交易平台進行的首次代理 AI 銷售，該平台每天處理約 10 億美元的交易量。在第一季度，我們簽署了一份價值數百萬美元的合同，涵蓋我們的一套解決方案，他們是第一個使用代理審查的客戶，這是我們新的 KYC AI 篩選代理，可以幫助更準確、更快速地接納客戶。考慮到 KYC 領域的所有體力勞動，AI 代理具有非常引人注目的價值主張，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

So more broadly, let me provide a quick update on our AI strategy across MA. Our focus remains on harnessing the transformative potential of Generative AI to drive growth, to enhance customer experiences, and achieve a more efficient operating model.

因此，更廣泛地說，讓我快速更新我們在 MA 的 AI 策略。我們的重點仍然是利用產生人工智慧的變革潛力來推動成長、增強客戶體驗並實現更有效率的營運模式。

On the commercial front, last quarter I talked about how customers who upgraded to Research Assistant contributed meaningfully to growth in the Research and Insights business in 2024. Beyond Research Assistant, we've introduced three unique generative AI offerings that highlight the power of integrating our proprietary data to accelerate decision making for our banking and KYC customers. It's the automated credit memo, early warning system, and the KYC AI agent that I just talked about.

在商業方面，上個季度我談到了升級到研究助理的客戶如何為 2024 年研究和洞察業務的成長做出有意義的貢獻。除了研究助理之外，我們還推出了三種獨特的生成式人工智慧產品，凸顯了整合我們的專有數據以加速我們的銀行和 KYC 客戶的決策的力量。就是我剛才講的自動貸記憑證、預警系統、KYC AI代理。

Additionally, Gen-AI navigators, now embedded in over a dozen MA product lines, are enabling on-demand customer support and improving user experiences across our solutions, and these navigators are helping customers maximize the value of our products.

此外，Gen-AI 導航器現在已嵌入十幾條 MA 產品線，能夠按需提供客戶支援並改善我們解決方案的使用者體驗，這些導航器正在幫助客戶最大限度地提高我們產品的價值。

We've also deployed Generative AI internally across three of our most significant functional job families in MA including Customer Service, Engineering, and Sales. For example, our Customer Service assistant has enabled a 20% reduction in resources for our support team, while significantly improving response times, all without compromising the quality of customer interactions.

我們還在 MA 的三個最重要的職能工作系列（客戶服務、工程和銷售）內部部署了生成式人工智慧。例如，我們的客戶服務助理使我們的支援團隊的資源減少了 20%，同時顯著提高了回應時間，而這一切都沒有影響客戶互動的品質。

In Engineering, we're rolling out increasingly advanced AI tools to empower our software engineers, setting ambitious adoption targets to accelerate roadmap delivery and drive innovation. And we've recently launched a transformative internally built agentic tool that will act as a sales companion for relationship managers and their specific books of business.

在工程領域，我們正在推出日益先進的人工智慧工具來增強我們的軟體工程師的能力，並設定雄心勃勃的採用目標來加速路線圖的交付並推動創新。我們最近推出了一款變革性的內部建立代理工具，它將作為關係經理及其特定業務帳簿的銷售伴侶。

It's designed to act as a catalyst for tailoring our value propositions, for streamlining, prospecting and meeting preparation and accelerating buying decisions. And as you might imagine, our sales and management teams are very excited about the prospects for productivity gains. So these are just a few tangible ways that we're driving greater efficiency and effectiveness in important areas across the firm.

它旨在作為一種催化劑，幫助我們客製化價值主張，簡化流程、勘探和會議準備，並加速購買決策。正如您可能想像的那樣，我們的銷售和管理團隊對提高生產力的前景感到非常興奮。這些只是我們在整個公司的重要領域提高效率和效力的幾種切實可行的方法。

So anchoring this back to where I started my comments just a few minutes ago, Moody's value proposition is especially relevant in times of change and uncertainty, and we're doubling down on improving the earnings engine of our business and delivering strong results in the face of volatility.

因此，回到我幾分鐘前開始評論的地方，穆迪的價值主張在變化和不確定的時期尤其重要，我們正在加倍努力改善我們業務的盈利引擎，並在波動面前取得強勁的業績。

And while the services that Moody's provides are not directly impacted by tariffs announced to date, we do believe many businesses are being impacted by the uncertainty of impending trade's tensions, and this uncertainty in turn leads to customers delaying financing and investment, and we've seen this in the first few weeks of April.

雖然穆迪提供的服務並未直接受到迄今為止宣布的關稅的影響，但我們確實認為許多企業正受到即將到來的貿易緊張局勢的不確定性的影響，而這種不確定性反過來又導致客戶推遲融資和投資，我們已經在四月的前幾週看到了這種情況。

As I think most of you would expect, we're taking a more conservative approach to guidance given the operating environment since we issued our initial guidance earlier this year. We've widened and lowered our guidance range to accommodate a broader range of potential outcomes at this point in the year. I know Amy's going to share more details in her prepared remarks, and I'm sure we'll address this further in Q&A.

我想大多數人都會想到，自今年稍早發布初步指引以來，考慮到營運環境，我們對指引採取了更保守的態度。我們擴大和降低了我們的指導範圍，以適應今年這個時候更廣泛的潛在結果。我知道艾米將在她準備好的演講中分享更多細節，我相信我們會在問答環節進一步討論這個問題。

Now looking beyond the near term dynamics in the markets, we feel confident about the deep currents that are underpinning the demand for our solutions. First, the evolution of capital markets, including Private Credit. Second, the digital transformation and automation and financial services industries.

現在，除了專注於短期市場動態之外，我們對支撐我們解決方案需求的深層趨勢充滿信心。首先，包括私人信貸在內的資本市場的演變。第二，數位轉型和自動化以及金融服務業。

Third, the imperative to know more about who you're doing business with. Fourth, the financial impact of extreme weather events. And fifth, the transformative power of Generative AI and the tremendous unlock available from proprietary data.

第三，必須多了解與你做生意的人。第四，極端天氣事件的財務影響。第五，產生人工智慧的變革力量以及專有數據帶來的巨大釋放。

And I want to double click on a few of these for just a moment. I've highlighted the growth coming from Private Credit. I'm particularly excited about the groundbreaking partnership with MSCI that we announced yesterday, where we're going to be providing independent risk assessments for Private Credit investments at scale.

我想雙擊其中的幾個，只需片刻。我強調了私人信貸帶來的成長。我對昨天宣布的與 MSCI 的開創性合作感到特別興奮，我們將為大規模私人信貸投資提供獨立風險評估。

And this partnership brings together our world leading credit scoring models with MSCI's very deep data on Private Credit investments, enabling investors to understand the credit profile of companies and individual loans, and together, we're serving a critical need for transparency and standards in the Private Credit market.

此次合作將我們世界領先的信用評分模型與 MSCI 關於私人信貸投資的深度數據結合在一起，使投資者能夠了解公司和個人貸款的信用狀況，共同滿足私人信貸市場對透明度和標準的迫切需求。

To support banks in their drive to digitize and streamline their credit and lending workflows, we've integrated numerated enable AI's front-end capabilities into our flagship lending solution, CreditLens. CreditLens supports nearly 500 banks with nearly $27 trillion in assets.

為了支援銀行實現信貸和貸款工作流程的數位化和簡化，我們將數位人工智慧的前端功能整合到我們的旗艦貸款解決方案 CreditLens 中。CreditLens 支援近 500 家銀行，總資產近 27 兆美元。

In fact, CreditLens' ARR, which represents over a third of the total banking line of business ARR, grew at 12% over the last 12 months, demonstrating our ability to innovate and enhance our scaled solutions and expand relationships within our core customer base.

事實上，CreditLens 的 ARR 佔銀行業務 ARR 總額的三分之一以上，在過去 12 個月中增長了 12%，證明了我們創新和增強規模化解決方案以及擴大核心客戶群關係的能力。

On the impact of extreme weather events, EON reported that first quarter economic losses of $83 billion were well above the 21st century average of $61 billion. In January, we closed our acquisition of CAPE Analytics, a leading provider of geospatial AI data and location intelligence for property underwriting, and now we're integrating CAPE into our industry leading catastrophe models, and this is going to give insurers an incredibly high-definition view of property risk, allowing them to insure more confidently and with greater precision.

關於極端天氣事件的影響，EON 報告稱，第一季經濟損失為 830 億美元，遠高於 21 世紀的平均 610 億美元。今年 1 月，我們完成了對 CAPE Analytics 的收購，這是一家領先的財產承保地理空間 AI 數據和位置情報提供商，現在我們正在將 CAPE 整合到我們行業領先的災難模型中，這將為保險公司提供極其高清的財產風險視圖，使他們能夠更自信、更精確地承保。

So we feel good about the medium term given these deep currents, and we can and will manage through the short term. And we've got an experienced team and a strong portfolio that's built to weather storms and to provide insight when the market needs us most. With that, Noemie, over to you.

因此，考慮到這些深層的趨勢，我們對中期前景感到樂觀，並且我們能夠並且將會度過短期前景。我們擁有一支經驗豐富的團隊和強大的投資組合，能夠抵禦風暴並在市場最需要我們的時候提供洞察力。好了，諾米，交給你了。

Thank you, Rob, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. This morning, I'll start with our first quarter performance, then walk you through how we're thinking about the rest of the year.

謝謝你，羅布，大家好。感謝您今天加入我們。今天上午，我將先介紹我們第一季的業績，然後向大家介紹我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。

Starting with Q1. We achieved the record financial results. MCO delivered revenue of $1.9 billion, up 8%. MCO adjusted operating margin improved by 100 basis points, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.83 was up 14% year-on-year.

從 Q1 開始。我們取得了創紀錄的財務表現。MCO 的營收為 19 億美元，成長 8%。MCO 調整後的營業利潤率提高了 100 個基點，調整後的稀釋每股收益為 3.83 美元，年增 14%。

Moody's Analytics achieved quarterly revenue of $859 million, up 8%. Recurring revenue grew 9%, in line with ARR growth. Decision Solutions, which includes our KYC, insurance and banking solutions, grew ARR by 12% to nearly $1.5 billion. And this line of business is consistently the fastest-growing part of Moody's Analytics, with ARRs of 17%, 11% and 8% in KYC, insurance and banking solutions, respectively.

穆迪分析公司本季營收達 8.59 億美元，年增 8%。經常性收入成長 9%，與 ARR 成長一致。決策解決方案（包括我們的 KYC、保險和銀行解決方案）的 ARR 成長了 12%，達到近 15 億美元。該業務線一直是穆迪分析成長最快的部分，KYC、保險和銀行解決方案的 ARR 分別為 17%、11% 和 8%。

Research & Insights and Data & Information ARR growth rates were 7% and 6% year-on-year. You can see this breakdown on slide 7.

研究與洞察和數據與資訊 ARR 成長率分別為年比 7% 和 6%。您可以在第 7 張投影片上看到此細分情況。

Double-clicking in MA's line of business results. First, within Decision Solutions, KYC led the growth with strong demand for our data, analytics and workflow solutions. KYC ARR growth was driven not only by our banking customers, as Rob illustrated earlier, but also by significant deals with corporate customers to vet suppliers and with European government entities to investigate fraud.

雙擊 MA 的業務線結果。首先，在決策解決方案領域，KYC 對我們的數據、分析和工作流程解決方案的需求強勁，引領了成長。正如 Rob 先前所述，KYC ARR 的成長不僅受到我們銀行客戶的推動，還受到與企業客戶審查供應商以及與歐洲政府實體調查詐欺行為的重要交易的推動。

In Insurance, our Climate and Specialty Insurance Risk Solutions and HD models are key differentiators in the market, driving ARR growth of 11%. In the first quarter, we signed an exciting deal for our cyber risk models with one of the largest global property and casualty insurers, showcasing that we are embedding ourselves in the insurance ecosystem across multiple risk domains.

在保險領域，我們的氣候和專業保險風險解決方案和 HD 模型是市場的關鍵差異化因素，推動 ARR 成長 11%。第一季度，我們與全球最大的財產和意外傷害保險公司之一簽署了一項令人興奮的網路風險模型協議，表明我們正在融入多個風險領域的保險生態系統。

In banking, ARR grew 8%, as customers are increasingly engaging with us to automate and digitize their lending workflows. In fact, over the last year, we've seen an increase of almost 20% in new business related to our lending solutions.

在銀行業務方面，ARR 成長了 8%，因為客戶越來越多地與我們合作以實現其貸款工作流程的自動化和數位化。事實上，在過去的一年裡，與我們的貸款解決方案相關的新業務成長了近 20%。

Turning to Research & Insights, now growing at ARR at 7%. The improved ARR growth rate is primarily driven by the lapping of two attrition events in the first quarter of last year. New business generation continues to be strong, up 20% over the last 12 months.

轉向研究與洞察，目前 ARR 成長率為 7%。ARR 成長率的提高主要得益於去年第一季兩次人員流失事件的重疊。新業務成長持續強勁，過去 12 個月成長了 20%。

And finally, our Data & Information business grew ARR by 6%. The downtick in the growth rate over the last two quarters continues to be impacted by two dynamics that we've talked about in recent quarters, an adjustment to our ESG strategy and attrition in sizable contracts with the US government. Outside of these two areas, ARR growth would have been 10%.

最後，我們的數據和資訊業務的 ARR 成長了 6%。過去兩個季度成長率的下降繼續受到我們最近幾個季度討論的兩個動態的影響，即我們的 ESG 戰略的調整以及與美國政府簽訂的大量合約的減少。除這兩個領域之外，ARR 成長率將達到 10%。

Now pivoting to Ratings. Record quarterly revenue was driven by Corporate Finance, especially from investment-grade issuers and by Structured Finance is continued momentum in CMBS and CLOs, as spreads remain tight and relatively stable for Q1. And you can see this on slide 6, and as Rob mentioned, Private Credit was a tailwind.

現在轉向評級。創紀錄的季度收入是由企業融資推動的，尤其是來自投資級發行人的企業融資，以及結構性融資在 CMBS 和 CLO 中的持續增長勢頭，因為第一季的利差仍然較小且相對穩定。您可以在第 6 張投影片上看到這一點，正如 Rob 所提到的，私人信貸是一個順風。

In this quarter, first-time mandates were almost 200, an increase of 20% year-on-year, broadly in line with our Q1 expectations. So net-net, a record first quarter with very strong execution on the backdrop of a constructed issuance environment up to the first week of April.

本季度，首次授權數量接近200個，年增20％，基本上符合我們第一季的預期。因此，在截至 4 月第一周的構建發行環境的背景下，第一季的業績創下了紀錄，執行情況非常強勁。

Now looking beyond the first quarter, we believe it's appropriate to pressure test our initial assumptions against the wider range of scenarios and update our guidance range accordingly. The market remains very sensitive to factors, including fiscal and monetary policy news flows, economic data and the potential path and pace to a resolution.

現在展望第一季之後，我們認為應該根據更廣泛的情景對我們的初步假設進行壓力測試，並相應地更新我們的指導範圍。市場對各種因素仍然非常敏感，包括財政和貨幣政策消息流、經濟數據以及解決問題的潛在路徑和步伐。

Global forecast for GDP are being revised downwards and the magnitude and timing of Central Bank rate cuts remained very much in flux. We currently anticipate high-yield spreads will widen over the next 12 months, and the latest forecast for default rates is also wider.

全球 GDP 預測正在下調，央行降息的幅度和時機仍有很大變化。我們目前預計未來 12 個月高收益債券利差將會擴大，最新的違約率預測也更為廣泛。

On the global and domestic M&A front, earlier expectations have been dampened by trade policy uncertainty. As such, we now expect 15% growth year-on-year in announced M&A, down for 50% growth in our February assumption.

在全球和國內併購方面，早先的預期因貿易政策的不確定性而受到抑制。因此，我們現在預計宣布的併購交易將年增 15%，低於我們 2 月假設的 50% 的成長。

So how does this all translate into a full year financial outlook? Well, first of all, we are pleased with the fact that Q1 rated issuance was broadly in line with our forecast, but we're now projecting MIS rated issuance to decrease in the low to high single-digit range for 2025.

那麼這一切如何轉化為全年財務前景呢？首先，我們很高興看到 Q1 評級發行量與我們的預測基本一致，但我們現在預測 2025 年 MIS 評級發行量將在低位到高位個位數範圍內下降。

Our range accounts for various levels of activity in May and June after a somewhat muted April and for variability in how quickly uncertainty resolves in the back half of the year. The breakdown by asset class is in our slide presentation on slide 10.

我們的範圍考慮了 4 月略顯平淡之後 5 月和 6 月活動的不同水平，以及下半年不確定性解決速度的變化。我們投影片第 10 頁上按資產類別進行了細分。

Finally, our issuance assumptions account for a relatively short-term disruption at the high end and more prolonged uncertainty with muted US GDP growth at the low end. While robust deal-making activity in the back half and healthy supply of high-yield issuance in the near term are possible, and certainly supported by subdued M&A levels and maturity walls respectively, we do not consider this a base case at this time.

最後，我們的發行假設考慮了高端市場相對短期的中斷以及低端市場更為長期的不確定性以及美國 GDP 成長放緩。儘管下半年可能出現強勁的交易活動，短期內也可能出現健康的高收益債券發行供應，而且這肯定會受到低迷的併購水平和期限壁壘的支持，但我們目前並不認為這是基本情況。

Reflecting our updated issuance outlook, we now expect MIS full year revenue growth to be in the range of flat to a mid-single-digit precent increase for 2025. MIS adjusted operating margin is expected to be in the range of 61% to 62%.

根據我們最新的發行前景，我們目前預計 2025 年 MIS 全年營收成長將在持平至中等個位數百分比成長範圍內。MIS 調整後的營業利益率預計在 61% 至 62% 之間。

Turning to MA. We are reiterating our revenue growth guidance of an increase in the high single-digit percent range, and we are adjusting the high end of our prior ARR growth guidance, with full-year ARR growth now expected to be in the high single-digit percent range.

轉向 MA。我們重申收入成長指引，即增幅達到高個位數百分比範圍，並且我們正在調整先前 ARR 成長指引的高端，預計全年 ARR 成長將達到高個位數百分比範圍。

There are two reasons for the ARR guidance adjustments. First, we want to acknowledge that the fluidity of the external environment drives uncertainty with customers and could lead to delays in decision-making as the year progresses. Although it's important to note this has not been the case so far.

ARR 指導調整有兩個原因。首先，我們要承認，外部環境的流動性會導致客戶的不確定性，並可能導致隨著時間的推移決策的延遲。但值得注意的是，迄今為止並非如此。

Second, we are reflecting higher-than-expected attrition with the US government than originally anticipated. This includes the impact of what was realized in the first quarter and an increase in probability of attrition for contracts scheduled for renewal in the balance of the year.

其次，我們反映美國政府的人員流失率高於最初的預期。這包括第一季實現的影響以及今年剩餘時間計畫續約的合約的流失機率的增加。

Having said that, we continue to build a solid pipeline of new business and believe the recent customer wins demonstrate Moody's Analytics strong value proposition even in this environment.

話雖如此，我們仍在繼續建立穩固的新業務管道，並相信最近贏得的客戶證明了穆迪分析即使在這種環境下也具有強大的價值主張。

On the margin front, the efficiency program we announced in our Q4 call sets us up very well. It provides us with the capacity to continue investing, to capture demand from the multiyear deep currents Rob highlighted and deliver on our commitment to scale margins.

在利潤率方面，我們在第四季度電話會議上宣布的效率計劃為我們帶來了巨大的幫助。它為我們提供了繼續投資的能力，以捕捉 Rob 強調的多年深層潮流中的需求，並兌現我們對規模利潤的承諾。

Bringing this all together, with our adjustments to MIS revenue guidance, we expect full year 2025 MCO revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range, with an adjusted operating margin expanding by about 100 basis points to 200 basis points to a range of 49% to 50%. Our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range is a range of $13.25 to $14, representing 9% growth at the midpoint versus last year.

綜合以上所有因素，加上我們對 MIS 收入指引的調整，我們預計 2025 年全年 MCO 收入成長率將達到中等個位數，調整後的營業利潤率將擴大約 100 個基點至 200 個基點，達到 49% 至 50% 的範圍。我們的調整後稀釋每股收益指引範圍為 13.25 美元至 14 美元，與去年同期相比成長 9%。

Now for modeling purposes, we expect the calendarization of top line and MIS -- and margin for MIS to be below the normal seasonal pattern for Q2 following the strong Q1 results and considering April issuance volumes. We anticipate that revenue will remain stable between the second and third quarters before declining in the fourth quarter sequentially, in line with historical norms.

現在，出於建模目的，我們預計，在第一季業績強勁並考慮到四月份發行量之後，第二季的頂線和 MIS 以及 MIS 利潤率將低於正常的季節性模式。我們預計第二季和第三季的營收將保持穩定，然後在第四季環比下降，這與歷史常態一致。

For MA, we expect our year-over-year total revenue to be in the high single-digit percent range, with sequential quarterly increases consistent with the prior year.

對於 MA，我們預計我們的同比總收入將達到高個位數百分比範圍，並且季度環比增長與上年持平。

Turning to operating expense, and excluding impact from restructuring and asset abandonment charges, we expect expenses to ramp by about $15 million from the first quarter to the second quarter and gradually increase sequentially in the back year in line with historical trends. The expected savings associated from our efficiency program will partially offset annual salary increases and variable costs as the year progresses.

談到營運費用，排除重組和資產廢棄費用的影響，我們預計從第一季到第二季度，費用將增加約 1500 萬美元，並且按照歷史趨勢在後一年內逐步增加。隨著時間的推移，我們的效率計劃預計帶來的節省將部分抵消年度薪資成長和變動成本。

Turning to our balance sheet and capital return. We have a strong financial profile and we'll continue to return capital to shareholders. We are maintaining our prior share repurchase guidance of at least $1.3 billion for 2025. Capital return represents approximately 80% of our free cash flow, which is now expected to be in the range of $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion for the full year 2025.

轉向我們的資產負債表和資本回報。我們擁有強大的財務狀況，我們將繼續向股東返還資本。我們維持先前的股票回購指導價，即 2025 年至少回購 13 億美元。資本回報約占我們自由現金流的 80%，目前預計 2025 年全年自由現金流將介於 23 億至 25 億美元之間。

Echoing what Rob shared, we believe we are well positioned at the center of important deep currents and we are operating from a position of financial strength.

正如 Rob 所說，我們相信我們處於重要深層潮流的中心，我們擁有雄厚的財務實力。

And with that, I'd like to thank all our colleagues around the world for their contributions to another record quarter for Moody's. And with that, operator, we'd be happy to take any questions.

最後，我要感謝世界各地的所有同事，感謝他們為穆迪再創紀錄的一個季度所做的貢獻。接線員，我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯‧施泰納曼。

This is Alex on for Andrew Steinerman. Just real quick, can you walk us through your assumptions around what acquisitions were included in the prior guidance versus now? Specifically, was CAPE Analytics factored into previous guidance? And how much do you expect it to contribute this year?

我是 Alex，代表 Andrew Steinerman 發言。簡單來說，您能否向我們介紹一下您對先前的指導中包含哪些收購以及現在的指導中的收購的假設？具體來說，CAPE Analytics 是否已納入先前的指導中？您預計它今年的貢獻是多少？

Yes. There is no change in our M&A assumptions with respect to our MA revenue guidance, that was already included before and it continues to be the case now.

是的。我們的併購收入指引中的併購假設沒有變化，之前已經包含在內，現在仍然如此。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

Maybe just a question on the issuance guidance. I just wanted to better understand when you reduce that guidance, just given some of the uncertainty, what were the key assumptions that were made in terms of M&A volume?

也許只是關於發行指南的一個問題。我只是想更好地理解，當你降低該指導時，考慮到一些不確定性，在併購量方面做出的關鍵假設是什麼？

I believe original guidance was expecting M&A volumes to be up 50%. So what were the new assumptions? And have you also made any changes in any terms of assumptions for the refinancing volume?

我相信最初的指導是預計併購量將成長 50%。那麼新的假設是什麼呢？您是否對再融資量的假設做出了任何改變？

Maybe just a follow-up there would be just how much visibility do you have for the issuance guidance for the rest of the year?

也許只是一個後續問題，您對今年剩餘時間的發行指導有多大了解？

Ashish, thanks for the question. So maybe just to zoom out when we're thinking about -- how we're thinking about issuance and the outlook. Obviously, tariffs have been impacting how companies are thinking about spending and investment decision, so it's created some uncertainty, and that we've seen some of that already in April in terms of just a delay in issuance.

Ashish，謝謝你的提問。因此，當我們思考如何看待發行和前景時，也許只是縮小範圍。顯然，關稅一直在影響企業的支出和投資決策，因此造成了一些不確定性，而我們在四月就已經看到了一些不確定性，即發行延遲。

Spreads have widened out a bit. We've had some risk off days. You might recall, last year, it was basically blue-sky days the entire year. But as I mentioned, we're in a much more of a headline-driven environment at the moment, so we have had some new issuance days.

利差略有擴大。我們經歷了一些風險規避的日子。大家可能還記得，去年全年基本上都是藍天白雲。但正如我所提到的，我們目前處於一個更受頭條新聞驅動的環境中，因此我們有一些新的發行日。

And now there are questions about kind of pace and trajectory of rate cuts through the balance of the year. So there's just a number of things that are going in to create some uncertainty for [issuers].

現在人們對今年餘下的降息步伐和軌跡存有疑問。因此，有很多事情會給[發行人]。

In regards to M&A, we've gotten off to a more modest start. We had thought that it was going to be primarily second half loaded. But I'd say it was more muted than we had thought and so, we've adjusted our own M&A assumptions down. I think we had 50%. We still believe there'll be growth in M&A off of a low volume, lower levels last year, something like 15%.

在併購方面，我們的起步比較溫和。我們原本以為它將主要裝載下半部。但我想說的是，它比我們想像的要溫和，因此，我們下調了自己的併購假設。我認為我們有 50%。我們仍然相信，併購交易量將在去年較低水準的基礎上成長，增幅約為 15%。

And again, I think we would think that, that will be generally back-end loaded. Really no change to how we're thinking about the maturity walls. So those continue to be, I think, very supportive of future issuance. Hopefully, that gives you a sense.

而且，我認為我們會認為，這通常是後端加載的。我們對成熟度牆的看法確實沒有改變。因此，我認為，這些仍然對未來的發行有很大的支持。希望這能給你一些啟發。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治通 (George Tong)。

In your MA business, you saw Research & Insights growth of 7%, Data & Information, up 6%. Can you -- for these two subsegments of MA, can you talk about how sensitive they are to banking and asset manager trends that you're seeing in the current macro environment? And what would be the catalyst for accelerated growth for these two subsegments?

在您的 MA 業務中，研究與洞察成長了 7%，數據與資訊成長了 6%。對於 MA 的這兩個子部分，您能否談談它們對當前宏觀環境中的銀行和資產管理趨勢的敏感度如何？那麼，這兩個細分市場加速成長的催化劑是什麼呢？

Maybe I can take that, and Rob can further chime in, too. But for Research & Insights, the growth is actually mainly coming from our credit view product suite, which includes Research Assistant, as you know, as well as credit analytics models and economic data. We continue to expect a low end of high single-digit growth for 2025. Obviously, we're keeping a close eye on Credit View renewals in our asset manager customer base because they remain under cost pressure.

也許我可以接受這一點，羅布也可以進一步加入。但對於研究與洞察而言，成長實際上主要來自我們的信用視圖產品套件，其中包括研究助理，以及信用分析模型和經濟數據。我們仍然預計 2025 年的成長率將處於低端​​高個位數水準。顯然，我們密切關注資產管理客戶群中的 Credit View 續約情況，因為他們仍然面臨成本壓力。

But we're having more conversations now with banks about growth. We're expanding the dialogue just beyond just risk and regulation. So we think that there's some interesting dialogue with banks around efficiency generated from Research Assistant and Credit View that we think will be supported for Research & Insights going forward.

但我們現在正在與銀行就成長問題進行更多對話。我們正在擴大對話範圍，而不僅僅是風險和監管。因此，我們認為，圍繞研究助理和信用視圖產生的效率與銀行進行了一些有趣的對話，我們認為這將為未來的研究和洞察提供支持。

And then for Data & Information, we had a bit of a slower growth in the first quarter, as I noted in my remarks, from elevated attrition in -- from US government. We also had the effect of the ESG partnership that we signed last year, which we talked about extensively in 2024.

然後，對於數據和資訊而言，正如我在發言中指出的那樣，由於美國政府人員流失率上升，我們在第一季的成長速度略有放緩。我們去年簽署的 ESG 合作也產生了影響，我們在 2024 年對此進行了廣泛的討論。

And in terms of outlook for the remainder of the year, we expect high single-digit ARR growth in that line. We've made some investments in data quality and interoperability. We also have made some investment in our corporate go-to-market, which we'll expect will influence our Data & Information business, as well as KYC.

就今年剩餘時間的前景而言，我們預計該系列的 ARR 將實現高個位數成長。我們在數據品質和互通性方面進行了一些投資。我們也對企業上市進行了一些投資，我們預計這將影響我們的數據和資訊業務以及 KYC。

We're very encouraged by the dialogue we're having with our corporate customers around max side, and we expect this will be, again, a support for the ARR growth in Data & Information in the remainder of the year.

我們對與企業客戶就最大限度方面進行的對話感到非常鼓舞，我們預計這將再次支持今年剩餘時間內數據和資訊領域的 ARR 成長。

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

羅素‧奎爾奇 (Russell Quelch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Just wanted to ask around the guidance. Remind us again, could you square the guidance for a decrease in issuance versus flat to increase revenue growth for 2025? Is there a positive mix effect here coming from somewhere?

只是想問周圍的指導。再次提醒我們，您能否將發行量減少與持平的指導方針與 2025 年的收入成長增加相平衡？這裡是否存在來自某處的正向混合效應？

Yes. Russell, so you think about kind of the building blocks to go from issuance to our revenue, and we do have our annual pricing initiatives, and we always talk about that being kind of 3% to 4% on average across the firm, and that continues to be intact. There's actually a positive mix shift from what we believe will be a decrease in bank loan repricing activity as a percent of total, just given we really have minimal economics on repricings.

是的。拉塞爾，所以你想想從發行到收入的構成要素，我們確實有年度定價計劃，我們總是說整個公司的平均定價在 3% 到 4% 之間，而且這個數字一直保持不變。實際上，我們認為銀行貸款重新定價活動佔貸款總額的百分比將會下降，這是一個積極的變化，因為我們在重新定價方面確實只獲得了極少的經濟效益。

As I said, we do still expect modest improvement in M&A in the back half of the year, and that typically is mix positive. And then if we think about recurring revenue, that -- we think that will be up mid-single digits. And so that will also be supportive in terms of going from issuance volume to total rating revenue.

正如我所說，我們仍然預計今年下半年併購活動將出現溫和改善，而且這通常是一個正面的訊號。然後，如果我們考慮經常性收入，我們認為這將上升中等個位數。因此，這對於從發行量到總評級收入的轉變也將起到支持作用。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber，Huber 研究夥伴。

Great. Can you just talk a little bit further about the costs? I was pretty pleased with your cost containment this last quarter. Obviously, your restructuring charges in the last two quarters were higher than normal. But just talk about -- in a little more depth about where you're putting the cost out here between the two different divisions.

偉大的。能再進一步談談成本問題嗎？我對您上個季度的成本控制感到非常滿意。顯然，過去兩個季度的重組費用高於正常水準。但請更深入地討論一下這兩個不同部門之間的成本差異。

Maybe also touch on your outlook for incentive comp for the year and stuff. Just some more color, please.

也許還會談到您對今年激勵薪酬和其他方面的展望。請再多加一些顏色。

Yes. So we've -- you pointed out, we've announced an efficiency program in the fourth quarter. We're executing on that program as we planned. We've talked about the areas where we think we can generate efficiencies within our MA business this year and also a little bit within our corporate functions, leveraging technology and automation. We are through the integration of our acquired entities that has generated some efficiency gains in the Moody's Analytics.

是的。因此，正如您所指出的，我們在第四季度宣布了一項效率計劃。我們正在按照計劃執行該計劃。我們討論了我們認為今年可以在 MA 業務中提高效率的領域，以及在我們的公司職能中利用技術和自動化提高效率的領域。我們透過整合所收購的實體，為穆迪分析帶來了一些效率提升。

And just to give you a bit of color on the margin outlook for the remainder of the year, we expect to be now in the range of 49% to 50% for the full year. That's up 100 basis points to 200 basis points. We already had some improvements in the first quarter. That's largely due to the transactional revenue growth, a little bit of a pause effect from the efficiency program that we have initiated, but that will materialize more meaningfully in the remainder of the year.

為了讓您對今年剩餘時間的利潤前景有一個大致的了解，我們預計全年利潤率將在 49% 至 50% 之間。這上升了 100 個基點到 200 個基點。我們在第一季已經取得了一些進步。這主要是由於交易收入的成長，以及我們啟動的效率計畫帶來的一點暫停效應，但這將在今年剩餘時間內更有意義地實現。

The margin improvement we expect will mostly come from MA for the remainder of the year. We expect the MA margin to ramp sequentially into the mid-30s range by the fourth quarter. The other thing to note for the margin for modeling purposes is the level and timing of incentive comp equals in MIS, which we've provided details on throughout last year.

我們預計，今年剩餘時間內利潤率的提高將主要來自於MA。我們預計，到第四季度，MA 利潤率將連續上升至 35% 左右。為了建模目的，要注意的另一件事是 MIS 中的激勵補償的水平和時間，我們在去年提供了有關它的詳細資訊。

We're currently forecasting for funding close to target. Whereas in 2024, we accrued above through the second half. So that will affect the quarterly margin comparison for the upcoming quarters.

我們目前預測融資額將接近目標。而在 2024 年，我們透過下半年實現了上述成長。這將影響未來幾季的季度利潤率比較。

And to your question about incentive comp, we now expect incentive compensation to be between $400 million and $425 million for the full year 2025. In the first quarter, we recorded $109 million, and so we're forecasting $100 million for each of the quarters for the remainder of the year.

關於您提出的激勵薪酬問題，我們現在預計 2025 年全年激勵薪酬將在 4 億美元至 4.25 億美元之間。第一季我們的營收為 1.09 億美元，因此我們預測今年剩餘時間每季的營收將達到 1 億美元。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Just a another question just on the MIS outlook. Wondering if you could talk about some of the sensitivities, if we got more Fed rate cuts, how you think about that potentially impacting your issuance outlook as well as on the M&A side, if we had flat M&A this year versus the up 15%, how we should think about that impacting your outlook?

這只是關於 MIS 前景的另一個問題。想知道您是否可以談論一些敏感問題，如果聯準會進一步降息，您認為這可能會對您的發行前景以及併購方面產生什麼影響，如果今年的併購持平而非成長 15%，我們應該如何看待這會對您的前景產生影響？

David, thanks for the question. I guess I would say the rate cuts are kind of a mixed bag. You hear us talk a lot on this call about one of the fundamental drivers of issuance is economic growth, right? This is companies that are investing. And if we have decelerating economic growth, which is we have shaped our growth forecast, we thought that tariffs are going to take about 1% off of global GDP growth.

大衛，謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，降息的效果是好壞參半。您聽到我們在這次電話會議上多次談論發行的基本驅動力之一是經濟成長，對嗎？這是正在投資的公司。如果我們的經濟成長放緩，也就是我們已經調整的成長預測，我們認為關稅將使全球 GDP 成長下降約 1%。

If we've got decelerating economic growth, that's leading to Fed rate cuts, again, I'd say it's kind of a mixed bag. The negative impact of decelerating fundamental growth versus the benefit of lower rates. Now that may impact things like pull forward from the maturity walls and things like that. But I would say it's -- it will be mixed.

如果我們的經濟成長放緩，這將導緻聯準會降息，我再說一遍，這是一個好壞參半的結果。基本面成長放緩的負面影響與降低利率帶來的好處。現在，這可能會影響諸如從成熟度牆向前推進之類的事情。但我想說的是——它會是混合的。

For M&A, I think we had talked about on the last call that kind of every 10% of M&A we thought we'd be about, call it, $35 million in rating revenue. So that gives you a sense of the sensitivity to that assumption. But I guess what I'd say is M&A is one assumption among many at this point that you have to look at in terms of thinking about what's going to go on with issuance.

對於併購，我想我們在上次電話會議上討論過，我們認為每 10% 的併購將帶來約 3500 萬美元的評級收入。這讓您感受到該假設的敏感度。但我想說的是，併購是目前眾多假設中的一個，你必須從思考發行將如何進行的角度來考慮。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克（Manav Patnaik）。

Rob, just on Private Credit, just hoping maybe, it's a little bit of a broader question. But obviously, you said a lot of the growth showed up in structured finance. I was just curious which other lines within your Moody's reporting segments do you think you have initiatives where you think that could pop up?

羅布，僅就私人信貸而言，只是希望這是一個更廣泛的問題。但顯然，您說很多成長都反映在結構性融資上。我只是好奇，您認為穆迪報告部門中的哪些其他部門還可能出現這種情況？

And obviously, that's all good news. I was hoping you just help us balance that with all the headlines in the near term, I guess, around how the banks have obviously frozen and Private Credit is in the headlines taking deals here and there.

顯然，這都是好消息。我希望你能幫助我們平衡近期的所有頭條新聞，我想，這些新聞都圍繞著銀行顯然已經凍結以及私人信貸在各處進行交易等問題。

So just a balance with some of the negatives out there, too, if you could.

因此，如果可以的話，也請平衡一下其中的一些負面因素。

Yes. Let me work my way through that, Manav. Great question. So first of all, I'd say it's in times where you've got some volatility in the public markets that we've seen that Private Credit can step in. We've seen that with -- we started with post financial crisis, but we really saw it with COVID. And then in 2023, when we saw some stress in the US banking system, we saw Private Credit again step in there as a funding source.

是的。讓我來解決這個問題，馬納夫。好問題。首先，我想說，當公開市場出現一些波動時，私人信貸就可以介入。我們從金融危機後就開始看到這種情況，但我們真正看到這種情況是在新冠疫情期間。然後在 2023 年，當我們看到美國銀行系統面臨一些壓力時，我們看到私人信貸再次介入並成為資金來源。

I think you got to balance that with -- there are going to be increasing issues around asset quality across the Private Credit portfolios, right? This is -- these are highly leveraged, typically the direct lending or highly leveraged loans. And we're seeing it in a few places, right? We talked about structured finance. You're seeing a lot of asset-backed finance from Private Credit sponsors rolling through.

我認為你必須平衡這一點——私人信貸投資組合的資產品質問題將會增加，對嗎？這些都是高槓桿的，通常是直接貸款或高槓桿貸款。我們在一些地方看到了它，對嗎？我們討論了結構性融資。您會看到大量來自私人信貸發起人的資產支持融資湧現。

We also see it in fund finance. That may not be issuance per se at times. We've got ratings on different alternative asset managers and fund entities and other things. So it's not always showing up in the issuance numbers, but you see it in the first-time mandates. So the growth of our FIG first-time mandates is importantly -- there's an important contribution from Private Credit related entities.

我們在基金金融中也看到這種情況。有時這可能並不是發行本身。我們對不同的另類資產管理公司、基金實體等進行了評級。因此，它並不總是出現在發行數字中，但你可以在首次授權中看到它。因此，我們的 FIG 首次授權的成長非常重要—私人信貸相關實體做出了重要貢獻。

And within FIG, when we talk about fund finance, it's everything from ratings on alternative asset managers and BDCs, but you've also got -- and I think of some of that is what you might call related to direct lending, right? Those are direct lenders. And then you've got true fund finance, where you've got things like subscription lines and NAV loans and rated feeders and all of that.

在 FIG 中，當我們談論基金融資時，它涵蓋了從另類資產管理公司到 BDC 的評級等所有內容，但您還了解到 — — 我認為其中一些內容您可能稱之為與直接貸款相關的內容，對嗎？這些都是直接貸款人。然後你就得到了真正的基金融資，其中包括認購額度、資產淨值貸款、評級饋線等等。

So those are the two places where we're seeing the most of this flow through.

所以，這兩個地方是我們看到這種流量最多的地方。

The last thing I would say, Manav, is -- and I imagine most of you saw our announcement with MSCI that I mentioned in my remarks. But there's more and more investor desire to understand and have a third-party view of credit risk of the investments that they're invested in through these Private Credit funds.

馬納夫，我要說的最後一件事是——我想你們大多數人都看到了我在演講中提到的我們與 MSCI 發布的公告。但越來越多的投資者希望了解他們透過這些私人信貸基金投資的投資的信用風險，並從第三方角度看待這些風險。

And it's interesting, because when we made this announcement, we've gotten some very good inbound from people saying, ah, this is interesting. Tell me more. I'm interested in understanding how I can get this independent view of credit risk. So I think you're going to see, in MA, through our credit scoring tools, I think you'll see that as a revenue opportunity for us as well to capitalize on Private Credit.

這很有趣，因為當我們宣布這個消息時，我們收到了一些非常好的回饋，人們說，啊，這很有趣。告訴我更多。我有興趣了解如何獲得對信用風險的獨立看法。因此，我認為您將在 MA 中透過我們的信用評分工具看到，這對我們來說也是一個利用私人信貸的收入機會。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

傑夫·西爾伯（Jeff Silber），BMO 資本市場。

I wanted to circle back to MA. I know you slightly reduced your ARR guidance. You talked about the federal government exposure, I understand that. But beyond that, are you seeing any other kind of slowdown or uncertainty in those businesses? Because some of the metrics kind of look like they are slowing down a bit.

我想回到 MA。我知道您略微降低了 ARR 指導。您談到了聯邦政府的風險，我理解這一點。但除此之外，您是否看到這些業務中存在任何其他類型的放緩或不確定性？因為某些指標看起來似乎有點放緩。

Yes. I'll take a crack at that. Not really. I mean we talked about the two things that primarily were impacting ARR in the quarter. And obviously, that impacts our guidance for the year.

是的。我會嘗試一下。並不真地。我的意思是我們討論了本季主要影響 ARR 的兩件事。顯然，這會影響我們今年的指導。

And that was, as you noted, federal government, not surprising, I think, to many people. We had some ESG-related attrition as customers are -- some customers are actually going straight to MSCI. I think we kind of anticipated and understood that.

正如您所說，這是聯邦政府，我想，這對很多人來說並不奇怪。我們遇到了一些與 ESG 相關的客戶流失，有些客戶實際上直接轉向了 MSCI。我想我們已經預料到並且理解了這一點。

I would say in regards to -- we get questions about pipeline and sales cycle. And we've had a number of questions over the years as we go into these periods of turbulence about are the sales cycles extending. I would say no, not at the moment. But it's early, right?

我想說的是──我們對通路和銷售週期有疑問。多年來，當我們進入這些動盪時期時，我們一直存在許多疑問，例如銷售週期是否會延長。我想說不，目前還不行。但現在還早，對吧？

And so in 2003, when we saw stress with the regional banks in the United States, it's not so much that we saw the sales cycles extend, but we saw some of the sales cycles push farther out in the calendar year, right, where banks just said, hey, look, I'm not ready to make a decision yet. I need to get more certainty about the operating environment and let's revisit some of this.

因此，在 2003 年，當我們看到美國地區性銀行面臨壓力時，並不是我們看到銷售週期延長，而是我們看到一些銷售週期在日曆年中被進一步推遲，對吧，銀行只是說，嘿，你看，我還沒準備好做決定。我需要對操作環境有更多了解，讓我們重新檢視其中的一些內容。

So the second thing is the pipeline is -- our pipeline across MA is quite robust. It's up double digits from the same time last year. So the pipeline is good. We're not seeing, at the moment, delays in sales cycles. But when we think about our guidance for the year, I think you're seeing us just acknowledge that it's a possibility.

所以第二件事是管道——我們跨越 MA 的管道非常強大。與去年同期相比成長了兩位數。所以管道很好。目前，我們還沒有看到銷售週期的延遲。但當我們考慮今年的指導時，我想你會看到我們承認這是一種可能性。

We want to acknowledge in an environment of heightened uncertainty, it's possible we could see some of this push out, and we're also acknowledging these two attrition kind of themes from the first quarter.

我們要承認，在高度不確定的環境中，我們可能會看到一些這種推擠，我們也承認第一季的這兩種消耗主題。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

瑞銀集團的亞歷克斯·克拉姆（Alex Kramm）。

Just coming back to MIS for a second. I didn't fully understand the commentary you made from a seasonal pattern perspective. So maybe you can just give a little bit more detail there, what you said about the second and the third quarter. I think you said second to third is stable. But I think from a second quarter perspective, you didn't really say much in terms of what you expect pulling this towards April.

回到 MIS 一會兒。我沒有完全理解您從季節性模式角度所做的評論。所以也許您可以提供一些更詳細的信息，關於第二季和第三季的情況。我認為你說的第二到第三名是穩定的。但我認為從第二季的角度來看，您並沒有真正說出太多關於四月份業績預期的內容。

Are you expecting May, June to get better? Or what exactly should we be thinking about it from a seasonal perspective? Sorry, what the short-term focus, but clearly a lot in flux.

您是否期待五月、六月情況會好轉？或者我們究竟應該從季節角度來思考這個問題嗎？抱歉，這只是短期關注點，但顯然有很多事情在不斷變化。

Yes. No, I'll start, and Noemie feel free to jump in. I think the way we've thought about this, obviously, we're incorporating the soft start to April, obviously, in our 2Q. And when we kind of think about the quarters, the biggest adjustment that we made in terms of thinking about revenues for the Ratings business is in the second quarter. And we don't know exactly how long some of this turbulence is going to last. I can talk a little bit about the current pipeline if people are interested in kind of what we're seeing.

是的。不，我先開始，Noemie 可以隨意加入。我認為，我們對此的思考方式顯然是將 4 月的溫和開局納入我們的第二季。當我們考慮季度時，我們在評級業務收入方面做出的最大調整是在第二季。我們不知道這種動盪究竟會持續多久。如果人們對我們所看到的內容感興趣，我可以稍微談談目前的管道。

But I would say the biggest adjustment to revenues was in the second quarter and then less than third and less in the fourth. So we're thinking Ratings is going to be down somewhere in the kind of -- Ratings revenue down somewhere in kind of the mid-single-digit range in the second quarter, down in kind of the low single-digit range in the third quarter, and up in the mid-single-digit range in the fourth quarter, and that gets us to somewhere between flat to mid-single-digit revenue growth for the year.

但我想說，營收調整幅度最大的是第二季度，其次是第三季和第四季。因此，我們認為評級業務的營收將出現某種下降——第二季評級業務營收將下降至中等個位數範圍，第三季將下降至低個位數範圍，第四季將上升至中等個位數範圍，這將使我們全年營收成長率達到持平至中等個位數之間。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

I wanted to ask about MIS margins and expenses more broadly. I think, Rob, you had talked about some Gen-AI related efficiencies more broadly in the business. So I think you might be talking about MA. But I'm curious, to the extent the environment worsened from an issuance perspective relative to how you're thinking about it at the moment, how much flexibility do you have in terms of whether it's pulling back on investments or just some of these efficiencies that are coming through?

我想更廣泛地詢問 MIS 利潤和費用。羅布，我認為您已經更廣泛地談論過業務中一些與 Gen-AI 相關的效率。所以我認為您可能正在談論 MA。但我很好奇，從發行角度來看，環境相對於您目前的想法而言已經惡化了多少，您在是否減少投資或只是提高一些效率方面有多大的靈活性？

Yes, Faiza, thanks. There's two things I'd say here. First of all, you manage through all these air pockets over the years. I can't tell you how many of these calls I've been on where there's some turbulence in the markets, and we get the sense about how are we thinking about being able to manage expenses. And the reality is that we've got, what I'd call, kind of the traditional levers that we're able to pull.

是的，Faiza，謝謝。這裡有兩件事我想說。首先，多年來你已經設法克服了所有這些困難。我無法告訴你我接過多少次這樣的電話，當市場出現一些動盪時，我們會了解如何管理開支。而事實是，我們已經擁有了我所說的我們能夠利用的傳統槓桿。

So if you see -- if we see cyclical declines in issuance, typically, we are very effective at managing headcount and all of that kind of stuff. And that's the first thing that we would look at, and that's what you would expect us to do in a declining issuance environment.

因此，如果您看到—如果我們看到發行量出現週期性下降，通常我們在管理員工人數和所有這類事情方面都非常有效。這是我們首先要考慮的事情，也是您希望我們在發行量下降的環境中做的事情。

Only if there's structural changes, would we say, hey, look, we need to fundamentally think about the resourcing of any particular. But in this case, I think we definitely think this is a cyclical issue. So there's the traditional levers of just being able to manage hiring very effectively, which we've done over the years.

只有在發生結構性變化時，我們才會說，嘿，看，我們需要從根本上考慮任何特定資源的配置。但在這種情況下，我認為我們肯定認為這是一個週期性問題。因此，我們多年來一直在使用傳統的手段來非常有效地管理招募。

And then second, we talked about this idea of becoming increasingly volume agnostic within a range of a band of issuance while maintaining strong controls, and we've really been working at doing that by -- it's not just the AI tools. Those are helpful.

其次，我們討論了在保持強有力控制的同時，在發行範圍內逐漸實現發行量不可知化的想法，我們一直在努力做到這一點——不僅僅是使用人工智慧工具。這些很有幫助。

But it's also about building modern applications for our analysts, analytical applications, rating workflow applications, those kinds of things, that deliver efficiency to them, right, so that over time, we're able to actually be able to handle more credits per analyst, right? That's obviously the goal, to be able to do that with consistent rating quality and engagement with the market and high-quality research.

但它也涉及為我們的分析師構建現代應用程序，分析應用程序，評級工作流程應用程序，諸如此類的東西，為他們提供效率，對吧，以便隨著時間的推移，我們實際上能夠為每個分析師處理更多的信用，對吧？這顯然是我們的目標，即透過始終如一的評級品質、與市場的互動以及高品質的研究來實現這一目標。

The advent of AI gives us the opportunity to deploy more tools for analysts. But of course, we have to make sure we do that in a way that respects our regulatory environment and has the right and control environment around it. So like many banks, we're more deliberate in how we deploy AI and the Rating agency because we need to make sure we have transparency on how we're using AI across the agency.

人工智慧的出現使我們有機會為分析師部署更多的工具。但當然，我們必須確保以尊重我們的監管環境並在其周圍擁有正確和控制環境的方式做到這一點。因此，與許多銀行一樣，我們在部署人工智慧和評級機構時更加謹慎，因為我們需要確保整個機構如何使用人工智慧的透明度。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉，奧本海默。

So going back to your partnership with MSCI, could you please add more color on the revenue model of the independent reassessments? What are the use cases? What are your clients looking for? And also how big deals in it can become longer term?

那麼回到您與 MSCI 的合作關係，您能否對獨立重新評估的收入模式進行更詳細的說明？有哪些用例？您的客戶正在尋找什麼？其中的大交易能有多長期限？

Yes. Owen, thanks for the question. We haven't disclosed kind of the revenue model or opportunity, but I think we all understand that the Private Credit market is significant and growing rapidly. And what I would say is in our engagement with investors, and that includes everything from pension funds and long-only investors to insurance companies who are big allocators to Private Credit, we've heard that there's a lot of desire to have a rigorous third-party credit assessment of the investments that these entities are invested in.

是的。歐文，謝謝你的提問。我們還沒有透露具體的收入模式或機會，但我想我們都明白私人信貸市場規模龐大且成長迅速。我想說的是，在我們與投資者的接觸中，包括從退休基金和多頭投資者到大量配置私人信貸的保險公司，我們聽說他們非常希望對這些實體所投資的投資進行嚴格的第三方信用評估。

So if you think about how we're serving the Private Credit market, we serve the alternative asset managers and GPs, and we also now have an opportunity to really serve the investors. And so what we're doing with MSCI, they have -- by virtue of their current platform, they have some very rich in-depth data on private credit investments across the fund universe.

因此，如果你想想我們如何服務私人信貸市場，我們為另類資產管理公司和 GP 提供服務，而我們現在也有機會真正為投資者提供服務。因此，我們與 MSCI 合作，憑藉其現有平台，他們擁有關於整個基金領域私人信貸投資的非常豐富的深入數據。

And now they have the ability to leverage our models to be able to provide our EDF-X, our quantitative credit risk scores to those investors. Over time, I think you would imagine that as we have the opportunity to provide these scores, so the customers are going to opt in. And over time, you can imagine, working together to build benchmarks and research and indices and all sorts of other things that continue to provide additional transparency and insight into the Private Credit market.

現在他們能夠利用我們的模型向投資者提供 EDF-X，即我們的定量信用風險評分。隨著時間的推移，我想你會想​​像，當我們有機會提供這些分數時，客戶就會選擇加入。可以想像，隨著時間的推移，我們將共同努力建立基準、研究、指數和各種其他東西，繼續為私人信貸市場提供額外的透明度和洞察力。

Pete Christiansen, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Pete Christiansen。

I was just curious if we could just drill down into the assumption on first-time mandates, I guess there's a lot of confidence there that's going to continue throughout the year. Just curious if you could just walk us through your confidence in that number throughout the year.

我只是好奇，如果我們可以深入研究首次授權的假設，我想人們會對此充滿信心，而這種信心將持續一整年。我只是好奇您是否可以向我們介紹一下您對全年這個數字的信心。

Yes. You're right, first-time mandates have actually continued to be the momentum that we had in 2024 has continued into the first quarter. First quarter FTMs, first-time mandates, were almost 200. That was up 20% versus the prior year quarter. And we saw growth in really all regions, except Asia Pacific. Corporate Finance was the largest source of first-time mandates.

是的。你說得對，首次授權實際上延續了我們在 2024 年的勢頭，並持續到了第一季。第一季的 FTM（首次授權）數量接近 200。與去年同期相比成長了 20%。除亞太地區外，所有地區均出現了成長。企業融資是首次授權的最大來源。

But I would also say that -- and I mentioned this with Private Credit, there's this new dynamic now where we're seeing much more first-time mandate growth coming out of our financial institutions franchise related to Private Credit, right? So these are, again, BDCs, asset managers, Private Credit funds, all of these kinds of things that are getting rated for the first time.

但我還要說的是——我提到過私人信貸，現在出現了一種新的動態，我們看到與私人信貸相關的金融機構特許經營中首次授權的增長要多得多，對嗎？因此，這些都是 BDC、資產管理公司、私人信貸基金，所有這些都是首次獲得評級。

In fact, I think something like one-third of our time mandates in FIG were serving the private credit market, both in the US and to a lesser extent, in EMEA. So we haven't changed the guidance at this time. Obviously, a lot of first-time mandates are related to leverage finance. So that is something to watch, but we have a bit of a tailwind in the FIG franchise.

事實上，我認為 FIG 中大約三分之一的時間任務是服務私人信貸市場，包括美國市場以及程度較小的歐洲、中東和非洲地區。因此我們目前還沒有改變指導方針。顯然，許多首次授權都與槓桿融資有關。這是值得關注的事情，但我們在 FIG 特許經營方面有一些順風。

Sean Kennedy, Mizuho.

肖恩‧甘迺迪 (Sean Kennedy)，瑞穗。

It was nice to see strong growth in KYC this quarter. And you touched on this on the prepared remarks, but I was wondering if tariffs and heightened macro uncertainties are acting as a catalyst for helping penetrate the corporate market. And could you also touch on the total opportunity and go-to-market strategy there?

很高興看到本季 KYC 出現強勁成長。您在準備好的演講中提到了這一點，但我想知道關稅和加劇的宏觀不確定性是否會成為幫助滲透企業市場的催化劑。您能否談談那裡的整體機會和市場進入策略？

Yes. Sean, good to have you on the call. So it's interesting. This point about -- your question about are tariffs actually driving some, have the potential to drive some demand for our solutions around KYC and supply chain, supplier risk. And I think the answer is potentially yes.

是的。肖恩，很高興你來接電話。所以這很有趣。關於這一點——您的問題是關稅是否真的會推動一些，有可能推動對我們圍繞 KYC 和供應鏈、供應商風險的解決方案的一些需求。我認為答案可能是肯定的。

Because we've talked about it on the call before that this massive amount of company data, and then we've been enriching it with these other data sets to serve these various use cases, right?

因為我們之前在電話會議上討論過這個龐大的公司數據，然後我們用這些其他數據集來豐富它以滿足各種用例，對嗎？

It started with KYC, it's a very high-growth scale use case for us. But we talked about this corporate platform that we've deployed, we call it Maxsight, where we're not just serving KYC, but we're also now serving, for instance, supplier risk and elements of supply chain and so on.

它始於 KYC，對我們來說，這是一個成長非常迅速的規模用例。但我們談到了我們部署的這個企業平台，我們稱之為 Maxsight，我們不僅提供 KYC 服務，而且我們現在還提供例如供應商風險和供應鏈要素等服務。

So we launched that platform in the first quarter for corporates, got something like 150 quoted opportunities in the pipeline. So there's a lot of really good dialogue with customers around these kinds of use cases, and we're seeing some early traction in that dialogue in areas like kind of logistics and health care and TMT.

因此，我們在第一季為企業推出了該平台，並獲得了大約 150 個報價機會。因此，我們與客戶就這些用例進行了大量非常好的對話，我們看到這種對話在物流、醫療保健和 TMT 等領域取得了一些早期進展。

So I think, again, when we see areas where there's uncertainty, what you see is customers wanting to try to work through that uncertainty, get additional tools, get additional data site, and I think that's part of what we're seeing here.

因此，我認為，當我們看到存在不確定性的領域時，您會看到客戶想要嘗試解決這種不確定性，獲取額外的工具，獲取額外的數據站點，我認為這就是我們在這裡看到的部分情況。

Joshua Dennerlein, Bank of America.

約書亞·登納林，美國銀行。

Rob, just trying to tie some of your comments today on expense management and margin versus maybe what we've seen in your history. If I look back to 2022, we saw like a fairly significant slowing in MIS revenues and margins really compressed. Is that not a good analogy to what might happen if MIS revenue slow a lot more than you expect this year?

羅布，我只是想將你今天關於費用管理和利潤的一些評論與我們在你的歷史中所看到的東西聯繫起來。如果回顧 2022 年，我們會發現 MIS 收入明顯放緩，利潤率也受到嚴重壓縮。如果今年 MIS 收入的成長比你預期的慢很多，那麼這難道不是一個很好的比喻嗎？

Joshua, thanks for the question. I'll see if Noemie wants to double click on this. But I think there's a difference between 2022 and where we believe we are now. In 2022, we had revenues that were down something like 30%-ish, off the top of my head. So 30% decline in the span of one year, it's difficult to preserve a lot of that margin.

約書亞，謝謝你的提問。我會看看 Noemie 是否想雙擊它。但我認為 2022 年的情況與我們現在的情況有所不同。2022 年，我們的收入下降了大約 30%，這是我能想到的。因此，在一年的時間內下降 30%，很難維持大部分的利潤率。

So we saw the margins come down below historical levels. But I would say in a general range, we have more ability. Obviously, we have incentive comp, which flexes up and down. And we have, as I said, some of these, what I'd say, kind of traditional levers that allow us to preserve more of the operating leverage within a band is how to think about it.

因此，我們看到利潤率降至歷史水準以下。但我想說，從整體來看，我們的能力更強。顯然，我們有激勵薪酬，其薪酬可上下浮動。正如我所說的，我們擁有一些傳統的槓桿，讓我們在一個區間保留更多的經營槓桿，這就是我們如何思考它。

Yes. That's the key. It's within the band of issuance. If you look at our guidance, we've adjusted our operating margin guidance for MIS by just a notch. We're now guiding for 61% to 62%, which is still pretty significant year-on-year increase.

是的。這才是關鍵。它在發行範圍內。如果您查看我們的指導，您會發現我們僅稍微調整了 MIS 的營業利潤率指導。我們現在預計這一比例將達到 61% 至 62%，這仍然是相當顯著的同比增長。

And then that's -- to Rob's point, we're being cautious with discretionary spend. And we also continue to invest in our digital workflows and analytical tools. I think it's important to continue to equip our analysts with the technology that will help us be volume agnostic in the future as well. But again, we're not forecasting, at this point, anything like 2022 scenario.

然後這就是——正如 Rob 所說，我們對可自由支配的支出持謹慎態度。我們也將繼續投資於我們的數位工作流程和分析工具。我認為繼續為我們的分析師配備技術非常重要，這將有助於我們在未來實現不受數量影響。但目前我們還沒有預測 2022 年的情況。

Yes. And I think just when I kind of zoom out, you kind of look at the financial profile, the margins and so on, this is still a very strong financial profile for the business.

是的。我認為，當我縮小視野時，你會看到財務狀況、利潤率等等，這對企業來說仍然是一個非常強大的財務狀況。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑森·哈斯。

This is Jimmy on for Jason Haas. Just wanted to follow up on the KYC question earlier. Curious to what extent you consider the current MA profile is countercyclical? And are there any other specific subsegments that hold up better than others during downturns, maybe like insurance?

這是吉米 (Jimmy) 代替傑森哈斯 (Jason Haas) 上場。只是想跟進一下之前的 KYC 問題。好奇您在多大程度上認為目前的 MA 概況是逆週期的？在經濟低迷時期，是否還有其他特定的細分領域比其他領域表現更好，例如保險？

Thanks for the question. We've talked about over the years, in general, I'd say much of the MA portfolio tends to be -- I don't know if I'd say countercyclical. But it tends to weather these acyclical, maybe a way to think about it, that's probably there were probably acyclical. And you've seen 68 quarters of growth, consecutive growth, through all sorts of different periods where ratings revenue has gone up and down.

謝謝你的提問。多年來我們一直在談論，總的來說，我想說 MA 投資組合的大部分傾向於——我不知道是否應該說是逆週期的。但它往往會經受住這些非週期性的考驗，也許可以這樣想，那可能就是非週期性的。我們已經看到了 68 個季度的成長，連續的成長，經歷了收視率收入起伏的各個時期。

And if you think about why is that? It's because think about the use cases that we're serving across the various businesses. So in banking, you've got customers using not only our software but our data for everything from lending, to stress testing, to CECL, to impairment testing and ALM. And that stuff is just very, very sticky, as you'd imagine. These are not things that you just unwire when you hit an air pocket. And in fact, if anything, we'll see the usage oftentimes go up.

如果你思考一下這是為什麼呢？這是因為考慮一下我們在各個業務領域所服務的用例。因此，在銀行業，客戶不僅使用我們的軟體，還使用我們的數據，用於從貸款、壓力測試、CECL、減損測試和ALM等各個方面。正如您所想像的，這些東西非常非常黏。這些東西並不是當你遇到氣泡時就可以解開的東西。事實上，如果有的話，我們會看到使用量經常上升。

Same with our Research. There's more demand in these environments to access the research and access our analysts and get our insights in these kinds of markets. Insurance, same thing. If you think about what's going on with the extreme weather events, there's nothing to do with financial markets, right? It's completely uncorrelated.

與我們的研究相同。在這些環境中，對獲取研究、聯繫我們的分析師以及獲取我們對這類市場的見解的需求更大。保險，同樣的事情。如果您想想極端天氣事件的發生，這與金融市場無關，對嗎？這完全不相關。

So this need to be able to invest in these tools to better be able to understand and address physical risk and underwriting needs is not really, in that case, correlated to the market.

因此，需要投資這些工具以便更好地理解和解決物理風險和承保需求，在這種情況下，這與市場並沒有真正的關聯。

So the last thing I'd say, you asked specifically about KYC. There's a great -- there's another great example. What we do see are banks trying to become two things: more efficient and more effective. So there's no question that, that is going on. But what we don't see is our banks saying, hey, KYC is somehow less important. I don't need to invest in it. This is a place that I'm going to cut.

所以我最後要說的是，你具體問到了 KYC。這是一個很好的例子——還有另一個很好的例子。我們確實看到銀行正在努力實現兩個目標：更有效率和更有效。毫無疑問，這是正在發生的事情。但我們沒有看到我們的銀行說，嘿，KYC 在某種程度上不那麼重要。我不需要投資它。這是我要剪掉的地方。

You do that, and next thing you know you have a fine or a consent order. And so I think banks have been very clear. They want to make sure they have regulatory compliance, but they also want to make sure they can get more efficiency. And that's why I mentioned this AI screening agent, because that is a fantastic opportunity to help banks, with compliance, to more effective, to reduce false positives but to be much more efficient. And so I think we're expecting to see some good demand there.

如果你這麼做了，接下來你就會收到罰款或同意令。所以我認為銀行已經非常清楚了。他們希望確保遵守法規，但也希望確保能提高效率。這就是我提到這個人工智慧篩選代理的原因，因為這是一個絕佳的機會，可以幫助銀行更有效地遵守法規，減少誤報，提高效率。因此我認為我們預計那裡會出現一些良好的需求。

That will conclude our question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the call to Rob for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將請 Rob 致閉幕詞。

Okay. Well, thank you very much for the questions, and we look forward to speaking with you on the next call. Have a good day, everybody.

好的。好的，非常感謝您提出的問題，我們期待在下次通話中與您交談。祝大家有愉快的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes Moody's Corporation first quarter 2025 earnings call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

穆迪公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，本次電話會議結束後，公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源部分發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，電話會議結束後，穆迪投資者關係網站上也將提供重播。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連線。