穆迪 (MCO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation second-quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers following the presentation.

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。目前，我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中，所有與會者均處於僅聽模式。應公司要求，我們將在演講結束後開放會議供問答。

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. I am Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝您，下午好，謝謝您今天加入我們。我是 Shivani Kak，投資者關係主管。

This morning, Moody's released its results for the second quarter 2024, as well as our revised outlook for select metrics for full year 2024. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

今天上午，穆迪發布了2024 年第二季度業績，以及我們對2024 年全年選定指標的修訂後展望。 com 上取得。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliations between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將提供非公認會計準則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天早上提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後的指標之間的美國公認會計原則 (US GAAP) 的調節情況。

I call your attention to the Safe Harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the Act, I also direct your attention to the management's discussion and analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K, for the year ended December 31, 2023, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website.

我請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。今天的言論可能包含1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。 。

These, together with the Safe Harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

這些與安全港聲明一起提出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，今天早上媒體成員可能會以只聽模式通話。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob.

我現在將把電話轉給羅布。

Thanks, Shivani. Good afternoon, and thanks, everybody, for joining today's call. I'm looking forward to talking about this quarter. 22% revenue growth, an adjusted operating margin of almost 50%, and 43% adjusted diluted EPS growth. That's great stuff.

謝謝，希瓦尼。下午好，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我期待著談論本季。營收成長 22%，調整後營業利益率接近 50%，調整後稀釋每股收益成長 43%。那是很棒的東西。

And as I have said before, and I'm very proud to say it again, MIS is one of the world's great businesses. And when issuance activity ramps up like it did in the first half of this year, and you maintain such a strong position with investors and issuers like we do, as well as our ongoing discipline approach to costs, we generate a tremendous amount of operating leverage.

正如我之前所說的，而且我很自豪地再次重申，MIS 是世界上最偉大的企業之一。當發行活動像今年上半年那樣增加，並且像我們一樣在投資者和發行人中保持如此強大的地位，以及我們持續的成本紀律方法時，我們會產生巨大的營運槓桿。

And for the second quarter, MIS delivered 36% revenue growth and a 63.2% adjusted operating margin, up 730 basis points from the second quarter of last year. And following another consecutive quarter of robust performance, we're again raising our guidance for both revenue growth and margin.

第二季度，MIS 營收成長 36%，調整後營業利潤率為 63.2%，比去年第二季度成長 730 個基點。在連續一個季度表現強勁之後，我們再次提高了對營收成長和利潤率的指導。

On the MA side, we delivered a seventh consecutive quarter of 10% ARR growth with a 94% retention rate. ARR growth continues to be led by decision solutions, which grew by 13% this quarter. That said, and while we see a strong pipeline for the second half of the year, we are widening our ARR guidance to account for the potential for a bit of more uncertainty in the buying environment in the second half. And Noémie will expand more on our thinking around this later, and I'm sure we'll discuss it in Q&A.

在 MA 方面，我們連續第七個季度實現 10% 的 ARR 成長，保留率達到 94%。 ARR 成長繼續由決策解決方案引領，本季成長了 13%。也就是說，雖然我們看到下半年的銷售管道強勁，但我們正在擴大 ARR 指導範圍，以考慮到下半年購買環境可能會出現更多不確定性。諾米稍後將進一步擴展我們對此的思考，我相信我們會在問答中討論它。

In addition to the MIS guidance raised, we're also increasing several of our Moody's corporation metrics, including upping our expectation for share repurchases for the year from $1 billion to $1.3 billion, and raising and narrowing our adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $11 to $11.40.

除了提高穆迪公司的指引外，我們還提高了穆迪公司的多項指標，包括將今年股票回購的預期從10 億美元上調至13 億美元，並將調整後的稀釋每股盈餘指引上調並縮小至一定範圍。

And we continue to innovate and invest, launching new products, expanding coverage, extending our partnerships, all to spur growth and position Moody's for long-term sustainable success.

我們繼續創新和投資，推出新產品，擴大覆蓋範圍，擴大我們的合作夥伴關係，所有這些都是為了刺激成長並幫助穆迪取得長期可持續的成功。

Now, speaking of growth, MIS has truly established itself as the agency of choice, and that allows us to really capitalize on a market environment like we experienced this past quarter. For the first half of the year, we grew transaction revenue by 56%, and that outpaced issuance growth of 43%. And that was particularly evident in our corporate finance and financial institutions rating groups, which both delivered transactional revenue growth rates north of 65%.

現在，說到成長，MIS 已經真正確立了自己作為首選代理商的地位，這使我們能夠真正利用上個季度所經歷的市場環境。上半年，我們的交易收入成長了 56%，超過了發行量成長 43%。這在我們的企業融資和金融機構評級小組中尤其明顯，它們的交易收入成長率均超過 65%。

And when considering recovery, overall total revenue grew by 35%. And the investments we're making to streamline and automate our workflows enabled us to meet the surge in issuance, and that's double-digit growth across all asset types while maintaining discipline around expenses. And even considering these investments, we're delivering adjusted operating margin up 760 basis points through the first half of the year.

考慮到復甦，整體總收入成長了 35%。我們為簡化和自動化工作流程而進行的投資使我們能夠滿足發行量的激增，所有資產類型都實現了兩位數的成長，同時保持了支出紀律。即使考慮到這些投資，我們今年上半年的調整後營業利潤率仍將成長 760 個基點。

Now, moving to MA. We had a strong first half, generating 8% revenue growth, and as I mentioned earlier, the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit ARR growth. We continue to focus on high-growth SaaS and subscription products, which are delivering mid-90s retention rates and now represent 95% of total revenue.

現在，搬到馬薩諸塞州。我們上半年表現強勁，營收成長了 8%，正如我之前提到的，ARR 連續第七個季度實現兩位數成長。我們繼續關注高成長的 SaaS 和訂閱產品，這些產品的保留率在 90 年代中期，目前佔總收入的 95%。

Businesses within decision solutions continue to deliver very good growth, and that includes KYC, which is delivering new and innovative features and functionality, and remains the fastest growing business with ARR growth at 18% as of the end of the quarter.

決策解決方案中的業務持續實現非常好的成長，其中包括提供新的創新特性和功能的 KYC，並且仍然是成長最快的業務，截至本季末 ARR 成長率為 18%。

Insurance ARR growth was 6% at this time last year. It's now 14%. And banking delivered 9% ARR growth, and for its purely SaaS offerings, a mid-teens ARR growth rate. Meanwhile, data and information delivered its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit ARR growth. And research and insights ARR growth remains at 6%. But we continue to expect the growth rate will improve of high single-digit percent growth range by year-end, and that's benefiting from the momentum with Research Assistant and our unrated company's coverage expansion in CreditView.

去年此時保險ARR 成長率為6%。現在是14%。銀行業實現了 9% 的 ARR 成長，而其純 SaaS 產品的 ARR 成長率達到了十幾歲。同時，數據和資訊業務連續第四個季度實現兩位數的 ARR 成長。研究和見解 ARR 成長率保持在 6%。但我們仍然預計，到年底，成長率將提高到個位數的高成長率，這得益於研究助理的勢頭以及我們未評級公司在 CreditView 中覆蓋範圍的擴大。

So how are we achieving all this? I mean, pretty simply, we're delivering mission-critical solutions, tapping into our risk operating system, massive data sets and analytic engines, all helping our customers navigate in increasingly complex and interconnected environment.

那我們要如何實現這一切呢？我的意思很簡單，我們正在提供關鍵任務解決方案，利用我們的風險操作系統、海量資料集和分析引擎，所有這些都幫助我們的客戶在日益複雜和互聯的環境中導航。

Now, last quarter, I gave you a glimpse into our GenAI product roadmap, and I'm excited to share that we launched two new skills this past quarter. And the first of those is an automated credit memo, which saves bankers hours of work by assembling a credit memo, leveraging the bank's in-house content, Moody's content, and third-party content.

現在，上個季度，我讓您了解了我們的 GenAI 產品路線圖，我很高興與大家分享，我們在上個季度推出了兩項新技能。第一個是自動貸項憑證，它透過利用銀行的內部內容、穆迪內容和第三方內容來組裝貸項憑證，從而節省銀行人員的工作時間。

Second is our early warning system, which is a cutting-edge GenAI-powered solution that's initially focused on commercial real estate that we launched last week. And this solution monitors breaking news, it alerts our customers, and that includes lenders, insurers, and asset managers, to risks that could affect their portfolio, and allowing them to query a broad range of Moody's data and models to quickly understand the potential impact of a given event.

其次是我們的預警系統，這是一個由 GenAI 支援的尖端解決方案，最初專注於我們上週推出的商業房地產。該解決方案監控突發新聞，提醒我們的客戶（包括貸方、保險公司和資產管理公司）可能影響其投資組合的風險，並允許他們查詢廣泛的穆迪數據和模型，以快速了解潛在影響給定事件的。

We've got a number of institutions using both of these solutions in private preview mode, and we're receiving some very encouraging feedback. And they're both great examples of more ways that we are unlocking the power of our data, our analytics, our insights, leveraging GenAI.

我們有許多機構在私人預覽模式下使用這兩種解決方案，我們收到了一些非常令人鼓舞的回饋。它們都是我們利用 GenAI 釋放數據、分析和洞察力量的更多方式的絕佳範例。

In KYC, regulation continues to drive demand for new and targeted solutions. And this past quarter, we launched our sanctioned security screening tool, which allows asset managers to look through the ownership hierarchies of their holdings to the ultimate patent and flag those that are sanctioned.

在 KYC 方面，監管繼續推動對新的、有針對性的解決方案的需求。上個季度，我們推出了受制裁的安全篩選工具，該工具允許資產管理者查看其持有的所有權層次結構，直到最終專利，並標記那些受到製裁的專利。

We also launched the European sanctions product. That was something that we actually launched in under a month, and it will help our banking customers manage new European reporting requirements on certain types of money transfers. And both of these solutions provide critical, timely, and trusted data to our customers, helping them avoid potential reputational or regulatory issues.

我們也推出了歐洲制裁產品。這是我們在不到一個月的時間內推出的產品，它將幫助我們的銀行客戶管理某些類型匯款的新歐洲報告要求。這兩種解決方案都為我們的客戶提供關鍵、及時且可信賴的數據，幫助他們避免潛在的聲譽或監管問題。

And they're great examples of how we're broadening the use cases we serve, leveraging our massive company, people, and news data sets. Now, these products wouldn't be possible without the investments we've been making in our Orbis database, which we believe is the world's best curated database of public and private companies.

它們是我們如何利用我們龐大的公司、人員和新聞資料集來擴大我們服務的用例的絕佳例子。現在，如果沒有我們對 Orbis 資料庫的投資，這些產品就不可能實現，我們相信該資料庫是世界上最好的上市和私人公司資料庫。

And we've more than doubled the number of entities we cover since we first acquired Bureau van Dijk. We added more than 20 million companies this year alone. And this past quarter, we reached a pretty incredible milestone with over 0.5 billion companies in our Orbis database. And this massive coverage is a great source of competitive advantage for us.

自首次收購 Bureau van Dijk 以來，我們覆蓋的實體數量增加了一倍以上。光是今年，我們就新增了超過 2,000 萬家公司。上個季度，我們達到了一個令人難以置信的里程碑，Orbis 資料庫中有超過 5 億家公司。這種廣泛的覆蓋範圍是我們競爭優勢的重要來源。

Now, turning to our ratings business, I always say that if there's an opportunity to invest in one of the world's great businesses, we're going to do it. And that's why I'm thrilled to announce that in early July, we completed our acquisition of GCR. That's the leading African domestic credit rating agency covering 25 countries across the region.

現在，談到我們的評級業務，我總是說，如果有機會投資世界上最偉大的企業之一，我們就會這麼做。這就是為什麼我很高興地宣布，在 7 月初，我們完成了 GCR 的收購。這是非洲領先的國內信用評級機構，涵蓋該地區 25 個國家。

And GCR really is a fantastic franchise. They've got a very impressive management team, and this investment continues to reinforce our leadership in domestic rating markets around the world.

GCR 確實是一個很棒的系列。他們擁有一支非常令人印象深刻的管理團隊，這項投資將繼續鞏固我們在全球國內評級市場的領導地位。

We've got a 30% stake in the leading rating agency in China. We've got very strong positions across Asia, in India, in Korea, Malaysia, and most recently, Vietnam. We've been enjoying great success with our Moody's Local strategy across Latin America. And now we've established a leadership position across the African continent.

我們擁有中國領先的評級機構30%的股份。我們在亞洲、印度、韓國、馬來西亞以及最近的越南都擁有非常強大的地位。我們的穆迪本地策略在拉丁美洲取得了巨大成功。現在我們已經在整個非洲大陸確立了領導地位。

Now, we've also achieved an important milestone in our sustainable finance franchise in ratings this quarter when we delivered our 200th second-party opinion in MIS, and we've got a healthy pipeline for the rest of the year. With the more recent launch of our net zero assessment, we now have, I think, a very compelling set of offerings to support sustainable and transition finance, and those are clear growth areas for the foreseeable future.

現在，我們在本季度的可持續金融評級方面也實現了一個重要的里程碑，當時我們在 MIS 中提供了第 200 條第二方意見，並且我們在今年剩餘時間內擁有了健康的管道。我認為，隨著最近推出的淨零評估，我們現在擁有一套非常引人注目的產品來支持永續和轉型金融，而這些是在可預見的未來明顯的成長領域。

Now, you may recall back on the third quarter call last year, I talked about how we'd established a framework for third-party partnerships really to drive the ubiquity of our content in more and more platforms where people are making decisions about risk, investment, and opportunity.

現在，您可能還記得去年第三季的電話會議，我談到了我們如何建立第三方合作夥伴關係框架，真正推動我們的內容在越來越多的平台上普及，人們在這些平台上做出風險決策，投資和機會。

In this past quarter, we had some exciting announcements on that front. First is our strategic collaboration with MSCI around ESG and private credit. And we really are excited to offer our customers MSCI's market-leading ESG scores and data through a range of our solutions. And MSCI will leverage Moody's Orbis database to extend its private company ESG coverage.

在過去的這個季度，我們在這方面發布了一些令人興奮的公告。首先是我們與 MSCI 圍繞 ESG 和私人信貸進行策略合作。我們非常高興能夠透過我們的一系列解決方案為客戶提供 MSCI 市場領先的 ESG 評分和數據。 MSCI 將利用穆迪的 Orbis 資料庫擴大其私人公司的 ESG 覆蓋範圍。

And together, we're going to explore solutions that will leverage our company data and credit scoring models and MSCI's distribution and expertise with the global investment community to provide greater insight into the private credit markets. And just to be clear, our collaboration does not impact our ESG work and ratings, nor does it affect our very extensive climate and transition capabilities across the firm.

我們將共同探索解決方案，利用我們的公司數據和信用評分模型以及 MSCI 的分佈和全球投資界的專業知識，以提供對私人信貸市場的更深入的了解。需要明確的是，我們的合作不會影響我們的 ESG 工作和評級，也不會影響我們整個公司非常廣泛的氣候和轉型能力。

Now, second, in June, we announced a new collaboration with Zillow that further enhances the insights available to both Moody's and Zillow customers. And starting this month, we're adding Zillow's extensive rental property data into Moody's CRE data platform. In exchange, Zillow will gain access to Moody's CRE market analyses, and that will help their customers make confident decisions around their multifamily properties.

其次，在 6 月份，我們宣布與 Zillow 開展新的合作，進一步增強 Moody's 和 Zillow 客戶可獲得的見解。從本月開始，我們將把 Zillow 廣泛的租賃房產數據添加到穆迪的 CRE 數據平台中。作為交換，Zillow 將獲得穆迪的 CRE 市場分析，這將幫助其客戶圍繞其多戶型房產做出自信的決策。

We're also deepening our relationship with Google. Last month, they announced that they have tapped Moody's to be one of four foundational data providers that will serve as grounding agents for their enterprise Vertex AI platform. And this grounding opportunity is particularly exciting as it dramatically expands the audience for our content and further establishes Moody's as a trusted data source.

我們還在加深與Google的關係。上個月，他們宣布已選擇穆迪作為四家基礎數據供應商之一，作為其企業 Vertex AI 平台的基礎代理商。這個落地機會尤其令人興奮，因為它極大地擴大了我們內容的受眾，並進一步確立了穆迪作為值得信賴的數據來源的地位。

And finally, back in May, we announced a first-of-its-kind enterprise risk management dashboard in collaboration with Diligent. And they're a leading governance, risk, and compliance SaaS company. And that's going to be offered as a separate module to their more than 700,000 Board and leadership users, again, broadening the audience for our content.

最後，早在 5 月份，我們就與 Diligent 合作推出了首個企業風險管理儀表板。他們是一家領先的治理、風險和合規 SaaS 公司。這將作為一個單獨的模組提供給超過 70 萬名董事會和領導層用戶，再次擴大我們內容的受眾範圍。

So these kinds of partnerships are expanding the reach and mindshare of our data sets and analytics to thousands of key decision makers while enhancing the offerings of our partners and ultimately, in the service of helping us accelerate long-term growth.

因此，此類合作夥伴關係正在將我們的資料集和分析的覆蓋範圍擴大到數千名關鍵決策者，同時增強我們合作夥伴的產品，最終幫助我們加速長期成長。

So on that note, let me hand it over to Noémie to talk more about our financial performance for the quarter.

因此，就這一點而言，讓我將其交給 Noémie，並更多地討論我們本季的財務表現。

Building on the momentum from the first quarter, I'm very pleased to share that we delivered a very strong performance in Q2.

在第一季的勢頭基礎上，我很高興地告訴大家，我們在第二季度取得了非常強勁的業績。

Our revenue was $1.8 billion, up 22% year on year, and our adjusted operating margin of nearly 50% improved by 590 basis points. Recurring revenue, which represents 95% of our revenue in this segment, was up 9% year on year. And the adjusted operating margin was 28.5%, up 50 basis points from the second quarter last year.

我們的營收為 18 億美元，年增 22%，調整後的營業利潤率接近 50%，提高了 590 個基點。經常性收入占我們該部門營收的 95%，年增 9%。調整後營業利益率為28.5%，較去年第二季上升50個基點。

Annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, was $3.1 billion, up $292 million, or 10% year on year. Our largest line of business, decision solutions, grew ARR by 30%. We grew ARR by 13%, with a 150-bip sequential growth acceleration from Q1. Growth in this line of business was enabled by mean and high-teens growth from insurance and KYC, where we continue to see strong customer demand for a best-in-class workflow solution.

年化經常性收入 (ARR) 為 31 億美元，年增 2.92 億美元，即 10%。我們最大的業務線決策解決方案的 ARR 成長了 30%。我們的 ARR 成長了 13%，較第一季連續成長 150 個基點。該業務線的成長得益於保險和 KYC 的平均和高青少年成長，我們繼續看到客戶對一流工作流程解決方案的強烈需求。

Data and information ARR grew 10%, with low-teens growth in our corporate and government sectors, while our research and insight business grew ARR at 6%, a similar trend to what we've seen in recent quarters, when we observed some modest uptick in credit view attrition from banks and asset managers, as we previously called out. Our overall retention rate remains high, around 94%, which is evidence of the stickiness of our solution.

數據和資訊ARR 成長了10%，我們的企業和政府部門的成長幅度較低，而我們的研究和洞察業務ARR 成長了6%，這與我們在最近幾季看到的趨勢類似，當時我們觀察到一些適度的成長正如我們之前所指出的，銀行和資產管理公司的信貸觀點流失率上升。我們的整體保留率仍然很高，約為 94%，這證明了我們解決方案的黏性。

I do want to note that while this quarter marked the seventh quarter of double-digit ARR growth, we expect some moderation in our growth rates for this metric in certain areas of our business in the second half, which I will address when I talk about guidance, growing 36% and topping $1 billion.

我確實想指出，雖然本季度是第七個季度實現兩位數的ARR 增長，但我們預計下半年我們業務的某些領域的這一指標的增長率會有所放緩，我將在談論這一問題時討論這一點。

Transactional revenue grew 56%, outpacing issuance growth of 47%, and represented close to 70% of the total revenue for the quarter in MIS. We saw a positive mix from our investment-grade subsegment, with transaction revenue increasing 28% versus the 10% rise in issuance, partially due to a combination of refinancing activity and several large M&A-related deals.

交易收入成長 56%，超過發行成長 47%，佔 MIS 本季總營收的近 70%。我們看到投資等級細分市場出現了積極的組合，交易收入增加了 28%，而發行量增加了 10%，部分原因是再融資活動和幾筆大型併購相關交易的結合。

And our financial institutions ratings group saw a record level of revenue from insurance customers, primarily due to a favorable mix in infrequent issuers, resulting in 58% overall increase in transaction revenue against a 17% increase in issuance. And our increased focus on automation, coupled with the strong levels of issuance activity, enabled us to deliver an adjusted operating margin of 63.2%.

我們的金融機構評級小組看到來自保險客戶的收入創歷史新高，這主要是由於不頻繁發行人的有利組合，導致交易收入總體增長 58%，而發行量增長 17%。我們對自動化的日益關注，加上發行活動的強勁水平，使我們能夠實現 63.2% 的調整後營業利潤率。

As Rob mentioned up front, we are updating our guidance for a number of metrics, so I'll start with the biggest change, which is the improved rated issuance outlook. Given the very strong start of the year, and a slightly improved expectation for the second half, [albeit] with a notable slowdown from the first half, we're now forecasting issuance growth to be in the 20% to 25% range, and revenue growth to be in the high-teens percentage range.

正如羅布之前提到的，我們正在更新一些指標的指導，所以我將從最大的變化開始，即評級發行前景的改善。鑑於今年開局非常強勁，並且對下半年的預期略有改善，[儘管]較上半年明顯放緩，我們現在預測發行增長率將在 20% 至 25% 的範圍內，並且收入增長將在高十位數百分比範圍內。

Looking out at the rest of the year, we now expect second half issuance to be roughly in line with the second half of '23, and we continue to expect Q4 issuance to be down in the mid-teens range, versus prior Q4, very consistent with our prior guide. So what's changed here, really, is we've taken the second quarter beat into our issuance numbers, and our outlook for Q3 is now a bit higher than it was previously.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們現在預計下半年發行量將與 23 年下半年大致一致，並且我們繼續預計第四季度發行量將比前第四季度下降到十幾歲左右，非常低。指南一致。所以，這裡真正發生的變化是，我們已經將第二季的成長納入了我們的發行數字，並且我們對第三季的展望現在比之前要高一些。

We've provided some additional color on this slide for the various asset classes, and we'd be happy to talk about more of this in the Q&A. Given this level of growth, we're raising guidance across revenue and profitability metrics in our ratings business. I'd like to take a moment to provide some high-level context behind our thinking.

我們在這張投影片上為各種資產類別提供了一些額外的顏色，我們很樂意在問答中討論更多相關內容。鑑於這種成長水平，我們正在提高評級業務中收入和獲利指標的指導。我想花點時間提供一些我們的想法背後的高層背景。

As we've consistently stated, we expect the first half of the year to be busier than the second half, and this view remains unchanged. From a macroeconomic standpoint, we have a positive outlook for the remainder of the year and expect global GDP to be between 2% and 3% for the full year.

正如我們一貫指出的那樣，我們預計上半年將比下半年更繁忙，這一觀點仍然沒有改變。從宏觀經濟角度來看，我們對今年剩餘時間的前景持樂觀態度，預計全年全球GDP將在2%至3%之間。

Our June default report, which was just published last week, is signaling that global default rates peaked in April, and will continue to decline gradually in the fall. We're also relatively agnostic to the timing and number of rate cuts expected later this year.

我們上週剛發布的 6 月違約報告表明，全球違約率在 4 月達到頂峰，並將在秋季繼續逐步下降。我們對今年稍後預計降息的時間和次數也相對不可知。

Now, with that context in mind, we are raising our guidance for MIS revenue growth to be in the high-teens percentage range, and we now expect full-year MIS adjusted operating margin to be in the range of 58% to 59%.

現在，考慮到這一背景，我們將 MIS 收入成長指引提高到高雙位數百分比範圍內，我們現在預計全年 MIS 調整後營業利潤率將在 58% 至 59% 的範圍內。

For MA, we're maintaining our guidance of high single-digit growth. We expect to see a significant growth for revenue and a 30% to 31% margin. However, we're adjusting our expectations for year-end ARR to a wider range of high single-digit to low double-digit percent growth.

對於馬薩諸塞州，我們維持高個位數成長的指導。我們預計營收將大幅成長，利潤率將達到 30% 至 31%。然而，我們正在調整對年終 ARR 的預期，將其調整為更廣泛的高個位數增長至低兩位數百分比增長。

Our current midpoint estimate for ARR growth is at the upper end of the high single-digit range. But taking into account a couple of strategic changes and more uncertainties that we usually have at midyear, we decided to make this update and provide you with some additional color on the factors that are notable.

我們目前對 ARR 成長的中位數估計處於高個位數範圍的上限。但考慮到我們在年中通常會遇到的一些策略變化和更多不確定性，我們決定進行此更新，並為您提供一些關於值得注意的因素的額外資訊。

First, the partnership we announced with MSCI represents a commitment to our customers, as well as a strategic shift in our offering. This change may impact our year-end renewals and reduce the sales pipeline for this line of business.

首先，我們宣布與 MSCI 的合作代表了對客戶的承諾，以及我們產品的策略轉變。這項變更可能會影響我們的年終續約並減少該業務線的銷售管道。

Second, while we were optimistic that tight purchasing patterns, particularly in banks and asset managers, would have improved, over the course of this year, we continue to see very tight conditions in those customer sectors.

其次，雖然我們樂觀地認為，緊張的採購模式（尤其是銀行和資產管理公司的採購模式）將會在今年得到改善，但我們仍然看到這些客戶領域的狀況非常緊張。

And third, as we look towards the US elections in the fall, we'd be remiss if we didn't note that the timing of certain upcoming renewals with US government agencies could be impacted.

第三，當我們展望秋季美國大選時，如果我們沒有註意到美國政府機構即將進行的某些更新的時間可能會受到影響，那就是失職了。

On a positive note, we also have several newly launched products, Research Assistant, which continues to be enhanced and has been gaining traction at the highest price points, along with the new products Rob highlighted earlier, and these are also expected to be able to build pipelines and close deals as we head into the back half of the year.

從積極的方面來看，我們還有幾款新推出的產品，即研究助理（Research Assistant），它不斷得到增強，並以最高的價格點獲得了關注，此外還有Rob 之前強調的新產品，這些產品也有望能夠進入下半年，我們將開始建造管道並完成交易。

So all in all, our pipeline is strong, we're continuing to invest and innovate to drive durable double-digit growth in the years to come.

總而言之，我們的產品線很強大，我們將繼續投資和創新，以在未來幾年推動持久的兩位數成長。

Now, bringing all this together, we now expect Moody's revenue to grow in the [low-teens] percent range, expenses to grow in the high single-digit range, and an adjusted operating margin in the range of 46% to 47%. This expense guidance update of a high single-digit percent increase and the additional charge related to asset abandonment, which we will take over the second half of the year, related to the shift in our strategy to source ESG data and scores from MSCI. That's a non-cash charge.

現在，將所有這些綜合起來，我們預計穆迪的收入將在[低青少年]百分比範圍內增長，支出將在高個位數範圍內增長，調整後的營業利潤率將在46%至47%的範圍內。此次費用指導更新顯示高個位數百分比成長以及與資產廢棄相關的額外費用（我們將在今年下半年接管），這與我們從 MSCI 獲取 ESG 數據和評分的策略轉變有關。這是非現金費用。

From a capital allocation perspective, I'm happy to share that we are increasing our free cash flow guidance to a range of $2 billion to $2.2 billion and are also raising our guidance for share repurchases by $300 million to approximately $1.3 billion. In doing so, we plan to return around 90% of our free cash flow to our stockholders in the form of buybacks and dividends for the full year 2024.

從資本配置的角度來看，我很高興與大家分享，我們正在將自由現金流指引提高到20 億美元至22 億美元的範圍，並將股票回購指引提高3 億美元，達到約13 億美元。為此，我們計劃在 2024 年全年以回購和股息的形式將約 90% 的自由現金流返還給股東。

And finally, as Rob mentioned earlier, we are increasing our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $11 to $11.40, a $0.50 increase at the midpoint. And that represents about 13% growth versus last year.

最後，正如 Rob 先前提到的，我們將調整後的稀釋每股收益指引範圍提高到 11 美元至 11.40 美元，中間增加 0.50 美元。與去年相比成長了約 13%。

So I'll just wrap up by congratulating my colleagues on a very strong first half, and I'm very excited for what it looks to be a very strong year. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, can we open the call up for questions, please.

最後，我要祝賀我的同事們取得了非常強勁的上半年業績，我對看起來非常強勁的一年感到非常興奮。我們準備好的發言就到此結束。接線員，我們可以撥打電話詢問問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Owen Lau, Oppenheimer & Co.

（操作員說明）Owen Lau, Oppenheimer & Co.

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question. So I do want to go back to issuance. You have provided a lot of good information already. But again, like issuance continue to be strong in the second quarter. You raised the guidance for MIS. But could you please give us an updated view on your pull forward expectation? And do you now expect like less impact on pull forward than you had expected maybe a few months ago? Can you maybe elaborate a little bit more on that?

下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。所以我確實想回到發行。您已經提供了很多好的資訊。但同樣，第二季的發行量持續強勁。您提出了 MIS 的指導意見。但您能否向我們介紹一下您的未來預期的最新觀點？您現在預計對前拉的影響是否會比幾個月前預期的要小？能詳細說明一下嗎？

I'd say there's two kinds of pull forward. The first is pull forward of planned financing within a given calendar year, and the second is the pull forward from forward maturities. And I would say that we have seen both this year.

我想說有兩種類型的前移。第一個是在給定日曆年內計劃融資的提前，第二個是遠期到期的提前。我想說，今年我們已經看到了這兩點。

As I think Noémie was touching on a bit in terms of what we think in the second half, we think that the fourth quarter in particular, I think, it's going to be November and December, is going to be much more muted in terms of issuance. And that's due in part because a lot of the issuers have been guided by the banks to issue earlier in the year while the market conditions are favorable and to avoid any kind of election-related turbulence in the fourth quarter.

我認為諾米談到了我們對下半年的看法，我們認為特別是第四季度，我認為，這將是 11 月和 12 月，在發行條款。部分原因是許多發行人在銀行的指導下在今年稍早發行，而市場條件有利，以避免第四季度出現任何與選舉相關的動盪。

Second, we've -- the forward maturities, that's mostly 2025 and mostly spec grade. And I'll give you maybe just a little bit of context. If you go back something like a decade, Owen, it's pretty common actually to see pull forward from spec grade maturities in the immediate year prior to maturity. And if you think about it, it makes sense because spec grade issuers don't want to wait until the last month or two and risk not having market access due to a risk-off period in the market.

其次，我們的遠期到期期限大部分是 2025 年，而且大部分是規格等級。我可能會向您提供一些背景資訊。歐文，如果你回溯到十年前，實際上在到期前一年看到規格等級到期的提前是很常見的。如果你仔細想想，這是有道理的，因為規格級發行人不想等到最後一兩個月，並冒著由於市場避險期而無法進入市場的風險。

That's much less true with investment grade issuers who generally always have market access. So we have certainly seen some pull forward from 2025. I'd say a meaningful amount of pull forward. But it's also within the ranges that we have seen in prior years for pull forward from the immediate year prior for spec grade.

對於通常總是有市場准入的投資等級發行人來說，情況就更不真實了。因此，從 2025 年開始，我們確實看到了一些向前推進。但它也在我們前幾年看到的規格等級較前一年提前的範圍內。

2026 pull forward is actually a bit lower than some of the ranges that we have typically seen. And I think that's probably because issuers want to see rates come down before they pull forward those maturities. I would also just note that 2025 spec grade maturities at the time of issuance were the highest on record. So there's just a lot of spec grade debt that's got to get refinanced. That's contributing to the refi volume.

2026 年的預測實際上比我們通常看到的一些範圍要低一些。我認為這可能是因為發行人希望在提前到期之前看到利率下降。我還想指出的是，發行時的 2025 年規格等級到期日是有史以來最高的。因此，有許多規格級債務需要再融資。這對再融資量做出了貢獻。

So I think, Owen, I think my takeaway is that, yes, there's pull forward. The pull forward from future years appears to be in these historical ranges that we've seen. And I don't think, at this point, it changes how we would feel about next year.

所以我想，歐文，我想我的結論是，是的，有前進的動力。未來幾年的拉動似乎在我們所看到的歷史範圍內。我認為，就目前而言，這不會改變我們對明年的感受。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to kind of follow up on that pull forward question a little bit more. And you hit on it a little bit, Rob, at the end. But it sounds like you're expecting a little bit more muted issuance around kind of geopolitical and maybe macro uncertainty and factors of that sort. But it doesn't sound like you're quite yet baking in any benefit from rate cuts. Just kind of wondering how you think about the interplay of those two dynamics, both at the end of this year and maybe even to start next. Thank you.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想進一步跟進這個前推問題。羅布，最後你突然想到了一點。但聽起來你預計圍繞地緣政治、宏觀不確定性和此類因素的發行會更加低調。但聽起來你還沒有從降息中獲益。只是想知道您如何看待這兩種動態的相互作用，無論是在今年年底，還是明年開始。謝謝。

So I think that's probably right. I mean, if you think about how we're thinking about the balance of the year, I'd say, how we're thinking about it is not particularly dependent on what's going to happen with interest rates. Noémie talked a bit about -- now I'm just focusing on the balance of the year here for a moment. We basically took the very strong first half of issuance into our outlook.

所以我認為這可能是對的。我的意思是，如果你考慮我們如何考慮今年剩餘的時間，我會說，我們如何考慮它並不特別取決於利率的變化。諾米談到了一些——現在我只關註一下今年剩下的時間。我們基本上將上半年非常強勁的發行納入了我們的展望中。

We believe based on the strength of conditions through the first half of the year, we actually then upped our issuance outlook for the third quarter. And we remained pretty cautious, as I said, about the fourth quarter.

我們認為，基於上半年的強勁形勢，我們實際上上調了第三季的發行前景。正如我所說，我們對第四季保持相當謹慎。

So I would expect if there are rate cuts, given what I think has gone on the fourth quarter, and I think largely there's been this in-year pull forward, if we see rate cuts, that's probably going to be a catalyst for 2025 issuance would be my guess.

因此，考慮到我認為第四季度的情況，我預計是否會降息，並且我認為很大程度上是年內的拉動，如果我們看到降息，那可能會成為 2025 年發行的催化劑我的猜測是。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

Hey, this is Greg Parrish on for Toni. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe just to move to MA for a moment. So you reiterated your expectations for research and insights to accelerate in second half towards high single digits.

嘿，這是托尼的格雷格·帕里什。感謝您回答我們的問題。也許只是暫時搬到馬薩諸塞州。因此，您重申了對研究和見解在下半年加速高個位數的期望。

Maybe just update us on the drivers there because, I mean, you lowered ARR partially because of R&I, but you still expect that to accelerate. So maybe just help us reconcile that. And it sounds like the environment is not improving as fast as you thought. So just kind of wanted to better understand. And then maybe kind of update us again this quarter on why you expect it to accelerate. Thanks.

也許只是更新我們那裡的驅動程序，因為，我的意思是，你們降低了 ARR，部分原因是 R&I，但你們仍然期望這一速度會加速。所以也許只是幫助我們協調這一點。而且聽起來環境的改善並沒有你想像的那麼快。所以只是想更好地理解。然後也許會在本季再次向我們通報您為什麼預計它會加速。謝謝。

Yeah. So in research and insights, ARR growth of 6%. That's in line with what we saw in the first quarter. We, I think on the last call, we talked about some modest retention pressures with our credit view offering, some of which came from some of the banking consolidation, that was expected. We had anticipated that.

是的。因此在研究和洞察中，ARR 增長了 6%。這與我們在第一季看到的情況一致。我想，在上次電話會議上，我們談到了我們的信用觀點產品帶來的一些適度的保留壓力，其中一些來自預期的銀行整合。我們已經預料到了這一點。

I think Noémie mentioned that both the banking and asset management sectors are experiencing, as she said, tight conditions, cost pressures, that put some pressure on upsell, pricing, retention, those kinds of things. But it's also why we really been focused on innovating and investing in our offerings, in particular, research assistant.

我認為諾米提到，正如她所說，銀行業和資產管理業都正在經歷緊張的條件和成本壓力，這給追加銷售、定價、保留等方面帶來了一些壓力。但這也是為什麼我們真正專注於創新和投資我們的產品，特別是研究助理。

And we talked about last quarter, and I think this continues to be true. Part of what is going to drive the pickup in ARR growth in research and insights is the Research Assistant and our coverage expansion. And maybe just a double click on Research Assistant for a moment, because that's a part of this.

我們談到了上個季度，我認為這仍然是事實。研究助理和我們的覆蓋範圍擴大將推動研究和見解方面的 ARR 成長。也許只需雙擊“研究助理”一會兒，因為這是其中的一部分。

We've got some good, very encouraging data points. We've got a very strong pipeline for Research Assistant. We have some good sales momentum in the past couple of months. Specifically, since the first quarter, we've doubled the number of customers for Research Assistant. We've seen average deal sizes increased by 2x. We've experienced some shorter sales cycles. And usage is up and customer satisfaction is up with Research Assistant users.

我們有一些很好的、非常令人鼓舞的數據點。我們有一個非常強大的研究助理管道。過去幾個月我們的銷售勢頭良好。具體來說，自第一季以來，我們的研究助理客戶數量增加了一倍。我們發現平均交易規模增加了 2 倍。我們經歷了一些較短的銷售週期。研究助理使用者的使用量和客戶滿意度都提高了。

So all that is encouraging and leading me to believe that we're moving in the right direction, and that's going to continue to support the pickup of growth in that line.

因此，所有這些都令人鼓舞，讓我相信我們正在朝著正確的方向前進，這將繼續支持該領域的成長。

Yeah, the other thing I would add, Rob, is on the retention rate for MA in general and research and insight is remaining very solid around 94%.

是的，Rob，我要補充的另一件事是 MA 的整體保留率，研究和洞察力仍然非常穩定，約 94%。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you. Rob, I just wanted to double-click, I guess, on the MSCI partnership, just some timeline. I think the ESG piece is self-explanatory. Just some timeline and sample of what you envision on the private credit side. And if I could just follow up, Noémie, on the ESG side, just the size of that ESG business you currently have. And if you could just help us appreciate, like, if MSCI sells [$10 million], let's say, how much does that impact you? I think you referred to, maybe seen some negative uptick from that.

謝謝。羅布，我想我只是想雙擊 MSCI 合作夥伴關係，只是一些時間表。我認為 ESG 部分是不言自明的。只是您對私人信貸方面的設想的一些時間表和示例。 Noémie，如果我能在 ESG 方面跟進一下，您目前擁有的 ESG 業務的規模。如果您可以幫助我們評估，例如，如果 MSCI 賣出 [1000 萬美元]，那麼這對您有多大影響？我想你提到過，也許從中看到了一些負面的上升。

Yeah, Manav, I'll start and then hand it to Noémie. And I have to say, we are really excited about this MSCI partnership because I do think it's a win-win for our customers because the MSCI ESG scores and data really are considered a market standard and we're going to be able to provide that content through to our banking, insurance, and corporate customers. And as I think, they're going to be leveraging Orbis to expand their coverage. So it's a great partnership, a real spirit of partnership with MSCI.

是的，Manav，我先開始，然後交給 Noémie。我必須說，我們對這次 MSCI 合作夥伴關係感到非常興奮，因為我確實認為這對我們的客戶來說是雙贏的，因為 MSCI ESG 分數和數據確實被視為市場標準，我們將能夠提供這些內容傳遞給我們的銀行、保險和企業客戶。正如我所認為的，他們將利用 Orbis 來擴大覆蓋範圍。因此，這是與 MSCI 的良好合作夥伴關係，具有真正的合作精神。

In terms of timing, there's a good bit of work to do to transition, to integrate the content and transition it into our solutions. I'd say, that work has begun in earnest, Manav, but it's probably going to take through the end of the year to be able to do that.

就時間安排而言，需要做大量工作來進行過渡、整合內容並將其過渡到我們的解決方案中。我想說，馬納夫，這項工作已經認真開始，但可能需要到今年年底才能做到。

Meanwhile, I think we've already got some very good ideas around what we can do in terms of partnership. I think we've already got some very good ideas around what we can do in terms of private credit. And if you think about our credit scoring capabilities as well as their expertise and distribution around the global investment community, and there's a clear need, a desire to have a third-party assessment of credit risk in a private credit space.

同時，我認為我們已經就合作方面可以做的事情有了一些非常好的想法。我認為，關於我們在私人信貸方面可以做些什麼，我們已經有了一些非常好的想法。如果您考慮到我們的信用評分能力以及他們的專業知識和在全球投資界的分佈，您會發現有明確的需求，希望對私人信貸領域的信用風險進行第三方評估。

So we've got some good ideas there. And I think the initial focus right now is going to be around the ESG integration into our solutions. I would say when we come back in the future, we're going to be able to, when we come back from the summer, probably -- sometime in September, we're going to roll up our sleeves around the private credit and start to get to work there.

所以我們有一些好主意。我認為目前的首要重點是將 ESG 整合到我們的解決方案中。我想說，當我們將來回來時，我們將能夠，當我們從夏天回來時，可能 - 九月的某個時候，我們將捲起袖子圍繞私人信貸並開始去那里工作。

I don't have a timeline on when we might actually get something to market, Manav, but I would say the ESG stuff came together pretty quickly. And given the market need, I think we'll work quickly here as well.

Manav，我沒有關於我們何時真正將產品推向市場的時間表，但我想說 ESG 的東西很快就整合在一起了。考慮到市場的需求，我想我們也會很快在這裡開展工作。

Yeah, and on the relative side of the ESG in our MA business, it's pretty small. It's a small part of our overall ESG and climate business. It's going to affect a little bit the pipeline for the remainder of the year, which is factored into our revised guidance for ARR. But it's not a material swing to our overall business for MA.

是的，相對於我們 MA 業務中的 ESG 而言，它的規模相當小。它只是我們整體 ESG 和氣候業務的一小部分。這將對今年剩餘時間的管道產生一些影響，這已納入我們修訂後的 ARR 指南中。但這對我們馬薩諸塞州的整體業務並沒有重大影響。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

史考特‧沃策爾，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hey. Good afternoon, guys. And thank you for taking my question here. I just wanted to go back to the strategic investments that we've talked about over the course of this year. And can you just update us on sort of where we are in that investment cycle?

嘿。下午好，夥計們。感謝您在這裡提出我的問題。我只想回到我們今年討論過的策略投資。您能否向我們介紹一下我們在投資週期中所處的最新情況？

I mean, it seems like you are making progress on sort of the Gen AI-related product side, but we'd love to kind of hear where we are in this investment cycle and specifically on maybe some of the other new products around private credit, digital finance, transition finance, just kind of where we are now.

我的意思是，看起來你們在與人工智慧相關的產品方面取得了進展，但我們很想聽聽我們在這個投資週期中的進展，特別是在私人信貸方面的其他一些新產品、數位金融、轉型金融，這就是我們現在所處的位置。

Yeah. Maybe I'll take that and I'll let Rob expand as well. But we remain on track with what we've communicated initially earlier in the year. Let me give you a bit of color on where we've deployed investments so far.

是的。也許我會接受這個，我也會讓羅布擴張。但我們仍然按照今年早些時候最初溝通的內容進行。讓我向您介紹一下我們迄今為止部署投資的地方。

So let me start with GenAI. You heard last quarter we've established a framework around our GenAI development. We have a set of GenAI tools that we've rolled out across our products with this year. In banking, we made a small acquisition earlier this year to accelerate the build of our banking assistance and the enablement of end-to-end lending workflow.

讓我從 GenAI 開始。您聽說上個季度我們已經圍繞 GenAI 開發建立了一個框架。我們今年在我們的產品中推出了一套 GenAI 工具。在銀行業，我們今年稍早進行了一項小規模收購，以加快銀行援助的建設和端到端貸款工作流程的實現。

It was a company called Able AI that really helped automate the commercial loan documentation process and filling some gaps for us in jobs to be done across the lending value chain. So that's an example of where we've invested.

這是一家名為 Able AI 的公司，它確實幫助實現了商業貸款文件流程的自動化，並填補了我們在整個貸款價值鏈上需要完成的工作的一些空白。這就是我們投資的一個例子。

Internally, we expanded our use of Copilot and other GenAI capabilities. We've completed our RCSA framework and ratings, and we're rolling out a ratings Copilot environment. Obviously, we've talked with our regulators. Again, we have very tight controls around that, and Rob can expand on that as well.

在內部，我們擴展了 Copilot 和其他 GenAI 功能的使用。我們已經完成了 RCSA 框架和評級，並且正在推出評級 Copilot 環境。顯然，我們已經與監管機構進行了交談。同樣，我們對此有非常嚴格的控制，羅布也可以對此進行擴展。

We've rolled out a lot of Copilot and GenAI tools internally across the business. Everybody's using it. We have very strong uptake in usage and a lot of exciting things when we looked at our internal hackathons, for example, that we just conducted. So that's for GenAI.

我們在整個企業內部推出了許多 Copilot 和 GenAI 工具。每個人都在使用它。例如，當我們查看我們剛剛舉辦的內部黑客馬拉松時，我們的使用率非常高，並且有很多令人興奮的事情。這就是 GenAI 的情況。

On the product development area, we're bringing together our data and analytics here into a workflow platform. That's for corporates to support the use of different use cases around sales and marketing, optimization, customer onboarding and monitoring, trade credit, supplier risk. Those are areas that are really important for our customers, and we hear a lot of strong feedback, and we're on track to launch additional products later in the year on that platform.

在產品開發領域，我們將數據和分析整合到一個工作流程平台中。這是為了讓企業支援銷售和行銷、優化、客戶引導和監控、貿易信貸、供應商風險等不同用例的使用。這些領域對我們的客戶來說非常重要，我們聽到了很多強烈的回饋，我們預計在今年稍後在該平台上推出更多產品。

And last, on the technology platforming, which was the third area of investment. In MA, we have a platform engineering and architecture roadmap to build on single sign-on, entitlements, other functionalities to drive a better user experience, which helps retention, but also helps drive further growth in our business. That gives us more insight into customer behavior across our platform, which helps us build use cases that resonate and address the needs of those customers. And that also reaps some efficiencies across our engineering teams as well.

最後是技術平台，這是第三個投資領域。在麻薩諸塞州，我們有一個平台工程和架構路線圖，以單點登入、權利和其他功能為基礎，以推動更好的用戶體驗，這有助於保留用戶，也有助於推動我們業務的進一步成長。這使我們能夠更深入地了解整個平台上的客戶行為，從而幫助我們建立能夠引起客戶共鳴並滿足這些客戶需求的用例。這也為我們的工程團隊帶來了一些效率。

For MIS, we continue to deploy applications on our platform. We have the first team on our full ratings lifecycle automation, and we're scaling that to a number of other teams throughout the year. And that's going to be really helpful in enhancing regulatory compliance. That will also allow us to process more efficiently issuance volumes. And you saw that already in our ability to deliver increased margin in MIS.

對於MIS，我們繼續在我們的平台上部署應用程式。我們擁有第一個實現完整評級生命週期自動化的團隊，並且我們將在全年將其擴展到許多其他團隊。這對於加強監管合規性非常有幫助。這也將使我們能夠更有效地處理發行量。您已經在我們提高管理資訊系統利潤的能力中看到了這一點。

So in general, we're doing well. We're tracking very well against the investment plan we communicated to you earlier this year.

所以總的來說，我們做得很好。我們正在很好地跟踪今年早些時候向您傳達的投資計劃。

I think you nailed it. I don't have anything to add, Noémie.

我想你已經成功了。我沒有什麼要補充的，諾米。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

亞歷克斯·克拉姆，瑞銀集團。

Yes. Hey. Hello, everyone. I think I'm going to take the other side of that question just now and stay on the AI topic. It sounds like you continue to do a lot, a couple of new products you mentioned today which sound very sensible and seems like there's decent demand. So can you give us an update on revenues that you're seeing so far, the trajectory and how that may have changed, and when you expect to really have a material contribution here? Thanks.

是的。嘿。大家好。我想我現在要從這個問題的另一面繼續討論人工智慧主題。聽起來你還在繼續做很多事情，你今天提到的一些新產品聽起來非常明智，而且似乎有不錯的需求。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您迄今為止所看到的收入的最新情況、發展軌跡以及可能發生的變化，以及您預計何時會真正做出實質貢獻？謝謝。

Yeah, Alex. It's Rob. So I think I gave you some data points around Research Assistant. This is one of, if not the fastest growing products that we've ever launched, but it's starting from scratch, and we've got a huge revenue base. So it's not material in the grand scheme of Moody's Analytics, but there's some really encouraging things about it.

是的，亞歷克斯。是羅布。所以我想我給了你們一些關於研究助理的數據點。這是我們推出過的成長最快的產品之一（如果不是的話），但它是從頭開始的，而且我們擁有龐大的收入基礎。因此，這在穆迪分析的宏偉計劃中並不重要，但有一些真正令人鼓舞的事情。

Like I said, the -- but I think very importantly is usage and customer satisfaction is up, and that gives us a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to monetize that over time, and not just in Research Assistant.

就像我說的，但我認為非常重要的是使用率和客戶滿意度的提高，這給了我們很大的信心，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠將其貨幣化，而不僅僅是在研究助理中。

So it's no longer a one-trick pony. It's not just Research Assistant, right? We've now launched several other solutions, and that's going to go on through the back half of the year and into next year. So there's going to be more and more product that will be leveraging AI coming into our solution suite. Like I said, we've already got a number of customers on private preview mode for both automated credit memo and early warning.

所以它不再是只會一招的小馬。不只是研究助理，對吧？我們現在已經推出了其他幾個解決方案，這將持續到今年下半年和明年。因此，將會有越來越多的產品利用人工智慧進入我們的解決方案套件。就像我說的，我們已經有許多客戶處於私人預覽模式，用於自動貸項憑證和預警。

I would also say, Alex, that we're also working on extending our partnerships with folks like Microsoft and Google in particular, and that's important because I think those are going to open up some new monetization pathways for us with our content embedded into their solutions. Their Copilot solutions. Their AI solutions. So that is in process.

我還要說，亞歷克斯，我們還在努力擴大與微軟和谷歌等公司的合作夥伴關係，這很重要，因為我認為這些將為我們開闢一些新的盈利途徑，將我們的內容嵌入到在他們的產品中。他們的副駕駛解決方案。他們的人工智慧解決方案。所以這正在進行中。

So it's still not material, but we definitely see some things that are quite encouraging.

所以這仍然不是實質的，但我們確實看到了一些非常令人鼓舞的事情。

Jeffrey Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Silber，蒙特利爾銀行資本市場部。

Thanks so much. You talked a little bit about, I guess, the tighter purchasing pattern that you've been seeing. You gave a little call. I was just wondering if you could drill down a little bit more. Maybe you can give some examples of what we're talking about. Thanks.

非常感謝。我猜你談到了你所看到的更嚴格的採購模式。你打了個小電話。我只是想知道你是否可以再深入一點。也許你可以舉一些我們正在討論的例子。謝謝。

Yeah. I guess I would say, in general, and Noémie talked about this, we see some cost pressures coming from the banking and asset management sector. And just to put a finer point on it, I ran the sales team at one point in the rating agency. You have real conversations with your customers, with procurement departments. You've got to make sure you're really able to articulate the value proposition of your solutions.

是的。我想我會說，總的來說，諾米談到了這一點，我們看到一些成本壓力來自銀行和資產管理部門。為了更詳細地說明這一點，我曾在評級機構管理過銷售團隊。您與客戶、採購部門進行真正的對話。您必須確保您確實能夠闡明解決方案的價值主張。

That might mean that customers -- you might see that again in terms of pressure, in terms of what we would think of as upsells, or perhaps around annual price increases. I talked about it. We mentioned. We've seen a little bit of pressure on the retention rates in CreditView.

這可能意味著客戶——你可能會再次看到壓力，我們認為的追加銷售，或者可能是每年的價格上漲。我談過。我們提到過。我們已經看到 CreditView 的保留率面臨一些壓力。

So that gives you -- hopefully gives you a little bit of a flavor. I guess maybe the other thing I might just touch on, though, is also maybe the sales pipeline. So that gives you a little bit of the sales environment in certain customer segments. But we've got a very healthy sales pipeline. There is very strong demand for our products. You're seeing that from the ARR growth that we put up through the second quarter.

所以這給了你——希望能給你一點味道。不過，我想我可能會提到的另一件事可能也是銷售管道。這樣您就可以了解某些特定客戶群的銷售環境。但我們擁有非常健康的銷售管道。對我們產品的需求非常強勁。您可以從我們第二季的 ARR 成長中看到這一點。

And in some cases, some of our GenAI offerings, we're actually seeing shorter sales cycles with some of the early adopters. The other thing I'd say is one of the drivers of pipeline growth is sales meeting activity. The more meetings you do with customers, the more likely you are to build pipeline, and that's been true for a long time.

在某些情況下，對於我們的一些 GenAI 產品，我們實際上看到一些早期採用者的銷售週期較短。我想說的另一件事是通路成長的驅動因素之一是銷售會議活動。與客戶舉行的會議越多，建立管道的可能性就越大，長期以來一直如此。

This quarter, we saw the highest volume of sales meetings post pandemic, and face-to-face engagements were -- so that gives me a lot of confidence that customers want to engage around our solutions, so hopefully that gives you a little bit of a flavor for what we're dealing with out there.

本季度，我們看到了大流行後銷售會議數量最多的情況，而且面對面的交流也非常多，這讓我很有信心，客戶希望參與我們的解決方案，所以希望這能為您帶來一點幫助。我們正在處理的事情的味道。

Yeah, and the other thing I would add is we're also having -- we've elevated the discussion with the C-suite at our banks and traditional customer base, and we're a lot more plugged in into their overall digital transformation initiatives now.

是的，我要補充的另一件事是，我們還加強了與銀行高管和傳統客戶群的討論，並且我們更加積極地參與他們的整體數位轉型現在的舉措。

Now, the flip side of it is, as I'm sure you know, we have also working with them to help them build their framework around GenAI adoption, and that's going to take some time, because they also have to abide by regulations. They have a lot of risk considerations to take into account, and that also plays a role in the dynamic that you see with our GenAI products.

現在，事情的另一面是，我相信您也知道，我們也與他們合作，幫助他們圍繞 GenAI 採用構建框架，這需要一些時間，因為他們還必須遵守法規。他們需要考慮很多風險因素，這也在我們的 GenAI 產品的動態中發揮作用。

And I just was curious, has it gotten any worse over the last three months, better, stayed the same?

我只是很好奇，在過去的三個月裡，情況是否變得更糟、更好、保持不變？

Is the -- what?

是——什麼？

The environment. Has it gotten any worse, better, or stayed the same over the last three months?

環境。過去三個月裡，情況有變得更糟、更好還是維持不變？

I think it's probably pretty consistent with what we've seen for the balance of the year.

我認為這可能與我們今年剩餘時間所看到的情況非常一致。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

安德魯‧史坦納曼，摩根大通。

Hi. Hi, this is Andrew, JPMorgan. I wanted to understand better the organic constant currency revenue growth of the data and information subsegment, which decelerated to 8% in the second quarter year over year. It had been double digit in the first quarter year over year.

你好。大家好，我是摩根大通的安德魯。我想更了解數據和資訊細分市場的有機固定貨幣收入成長，該成長在第二季度同比下降至 8%。第一季同比增長兩位數。

It just strikes me as odd because, as you know, the ARR of this subsegment has consistently been double-digit, and I just don't understand why there's variation between the organic revenue growth and the organic ARR of data information because I thought it was essentially fixed subscription.

這讓我覺得很奇怪，因為如你所知，這個細分市場的 ARR 一直是兩位數，我只是不明白為什麼有機收入成長和數據資訊的有機 ARR 之間存在差異，因為我認為本質上是固定訂閱。

Andrew, this is a very good question, and you're right. On a sequential basis, the growth was down from, I think, 12% to 8% this quarter. There is, in fact, a little bit of impact from a mix of product, nature of the contracts, that does create a little bit of variability in the quarter-to-quarter revenue numbers.

安德魯，這是一個非常好的問題，你是對的。從環比來看，本季的成長率從 12% 下降到 8%。事實上，產品組合、合約性質會產生一些影響，這確實會導致季度營收數據出現一些變化。

And 12% in the first quarter is probably a little higher than typical. 8% is probably a little lower than typical. You look at the first half growth of roughly 10%, and I think that's pretty reflective of the business performance. And I also think, Andrew, that's what you can expect for the full year as well as ARR growth. And so it's a good question, but I think that hopefully that gives you a sense.

第一季 12% 可能略高於典型。 8% 可能比典型值低一點。上半年的成長率約為 10%，我認為這很好地反映了業務績效。我還認為，安德魯，這就是您對全年以及 ARR 成長的期望。這是一個很好的問題，但我認為希望這能讓你有所了解。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

Ashish Sabadra，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So you've mentioned a few headwinds to the ARR as we get into the back half of the year. How should we think about those headwinds for revenues? And just given the MA revenue growth has been, like, relatively muted and comms get harder in the back half of the year, as we think about that high single-digit revenue growth guidance, does it fail to assume towards the lower end versus the higher end of that high single-digit growth? Thanks.

你好。感謝您提出我的問題。因此，您提到了今年下半年 ARR 面臨的一些阻力。我們該如何看待這些收入阻力？考慮到 MA 收入成長相對溫和，下半年通訊變得更加困難，當我們考慮高單位數收入成長指引時，它是否無法假設低端與高端相比這麼高個位數成長的高端是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah. Let me take that. So as I said in my prepared remarks, the second quarter revenue growth was 7% and 8% at constant currency. It was similar to what we saw in the first quarter. But if you take recurring revenue, which is 95% of our revenue in MA, it grew by 9% for the second quarter, similar to what it was in Q1.

是的。讓我來吧。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，以固定匯率計算，第二季營收成長分別為 7% 和 8%。這與我們在第一季看到的情況類似。但如果考慮經常性收入（占我們在 MA 收入的 95%），第二季成長了 9%，與第一季類似。

We expect similar growth rates for recurring revenue throughout the year. Transactional revenue was down in the second quarter as we continue to trend, and will continue to trend downwards in the second half of the year. We're shifting our focus to renewable sales, as you know.

我們預計全年經常性收入將出現類似的成長率。隨著我們繼續趨勢，交易收入在第二季下降，並將在下半年繼續呈下降趨勢。如您所知，我們正在將重點轉向再生能源銷售。

So what that means, the best way to think about the guide in the second half of the year, we expect MA to grow in the third quarter to be more or less aligned with the growth that we saw in the second quarter before kicking back up in the higher end of high single-digit growth in the fourth quarter. So that's what's behind our guidance.

那麼這意味著什麼，考慮下半年指南的最佳方式是，我們預計第三季度 MA 的增長或多或少與我們在第二季度看到的增長保持一致，然後才會回升處於第四季度高個位數成長的高端。這就是我們的指導背後的原因。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

喬治唐，高盛。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Within MIS, you mentioned you saw a pull forward from both within the year and also from 2025. You also mentioned that your outlook for 2025 issuance hasn't really changed, and just wanted to reconcile those statements. Has your outlook for issuance come down in any future period because of the pull-forward effect?

你好。謝謝。早安.在 MIS 內部，您提到您看到了今年內和 2025 年的拉動。您對未來某個時期的發行前景是否會因為拉動效應而下降？

The way I tend to think about this is we went back and looked, for instance, I mentioned we looked at spec grade, forward maturities and what kind of pull forward we see on a year-to-year basis. And what we're seeing this year is pretty consistent with a kind of a historical range over the last decade.

我傾向於思考這個問題的方式是我們回過頭來看看，例如，我提到我們研究了規格等級、遠期到期日以及我們逐年看到的推進情況。我們今年看到的情況與過去十年的歷史範圍非常一致。

So that tells me that I don't think that given what's going on this year would then have a material impact to the way I might think about the growth profile and issuance profile on a go-forward basis because I don't see this as anomalous pull forward.

因此，這告訴我，考慮到今年發生的事情，我認為不會對我未來考慮成長概況和發行概況的方式產生重大影響，因為我不認為這是異常的向前拉動。

What's going on in the end calendar, obviously, we talked about that with our outlook. I do think there's end calendar pull forward. There is 2025 pull forward, but I don't think that is unusual pull forward at this point.

顯然，最終日曆中發生了什麼，我們用我們的前景討論了這一點。我確實認為年底日曆會提早。有 2025 年的提前，但我認為目前這並不是不尋常的提前。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

克雷格·胡貝爾，胡貝爾研究夥伴。

Thank you. Rob, could you just touch on the commercial real estate market in the US here, all the problems in recent years here that might be compounding here, what it may mean to the banking sector here? How concerned are you and your analysts about that? And then my housekeeping question for Noémie is, what's the incentive comp in the quarter versus a year ago? Thank you.

謝謝。羅布，您能否談談美國的商業房地產市場，近年來可能在這裡加劇的所有問題，這對這裡的銀行業可能意味著什麼？您和您的分析師對此有多擔心？然後我要問 Noémie 的問題是，與一年前相比，本季的激勵補償是多少？謝謝。

Yeah, so Craig, commercial real estate is obviously an area that we've got a keen focus on with our analytical teams, and we've got a lot of touch points into the commercial real estate space across ratings. We've also got a lot of data and analytic tools across the entire company around commercial real estate.

是的，克雷格，商業房地產顯然是我們的分析團隊密切關注的一個領域，而且我們在商業房地產領域的評級方面有很多接觸點。我們還擁有整個公司圍繞商業房地產的大量數據和分析工具。

I think, generally, this -- the concerns around commercial real estate are probably most focused on office, and it's a certain type of office too. Type A, Class A office has held up pretty well, and you -- I do think the type of property does matter. We see this both with CMBS. You've seen some articles in the paper looking at single asset, single borrower, CMBS, which, and then we've got a lot of data.

我認為，總的來說，圍繞商業房地產的擔憂可能最集中在辦公室，而且它也是某種類型的辦公室。 A 型、A 級辦公室一直表現得很好，而你——我確實認為房產類型確實很重要。我們在 CMBS 中都看到了這一點。您已經在報紙上看到一些關於單一資產、單一借款人、CMBS 的文章，然後我們獲得了大量數據。

And we also think about this from a banking perspective, and our teams actually put out some really interesting research. I'm happy to share it with you after the call, really making sure we understand the commercial real estate exposure of our rated banks, and how to think about stress scenarios around that.

我們也從銀行業的角度思考這個問題，我們的團隊實際上做了一些非常有趣的研究。我很高興在電話會議後與您分享，真正確保我們了解受評級銀行的商業房地產風險，以及如何考慮與之相關的壓力情境。

So I would say there's a lot of focus on it. Interestingly, Craig, the CMBS issuance market, this quarter actually showed some signs of life. We're actually -- it's on a small base, but just given the fact that we've got it at this point, what looks like a soft landing, there is some new investor interest in the CMBS space, which I actually think is quite interesting and tells you something about investor sentiment.

所以我想說，人們對此有很多關注。有趣的是，克雷格認為，本季的 CMBS 發行市場實際上顯示出了一些活力的跡象。事實上，我們的基數很小，但考慮到我們現在已經實現了軟著陸，投資者對 CMBS 領域產生了一些新的興趣，我實際上認為這是非常有趣，可以告訴你一些有關投資者情緒的資訊.

Yeah, and on your question about incentive comp, we've made an adjustment in the second quarter to reflect the accrual in relation to the top line performance that we saw. We recorded about $117 million in the second quarter. And for the remainder of the year, we expect the quarterly expense to be about $110 million per quarter.

是的，關於您關於激勵補償的問題，我們在第二季度進行了調整，以反映與我們看到的頂線業績相關的應計費用。第二季我們錄得約 1.17 億美元。在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計每季的季度支出約為 1.1 億美元。

Hey, one other thing I might add too, Craig, I mean, I talked about it in my remarks, this early warning system. But it is -- the initial offering, it is focused specifically on commercial real estate, and this really synthesizes a broad range of our content and our models to allow you to understand -- an event happens in the market, and you want to start to sensitize and understand the potential impact of that event, call our models, call our data, and be able to get a sense of the impact in a fraction of the time that you might otherwise.

嘿，我還可以補充一件事，克雷格，我的意思是，我在演講中談到了這個早期預警系統。但這是——首次提供，它專門針對商業房地產，這確實綜合了我們廣泛的內容和模型，讓您能夠理解——市場上發生的事件，您想要開始要了解並了解該事件的潛在影響，請呼叫我們的模型、呼叫我們的數據，並能夠在短時間內了解其影響。

And so you can imagine, based on that, there's some very good interest from folks in the market who want to use tools like that to be able to figure out where do they need to actually focus scarce resources in their portfolio.

所以你可以想像，基於此，市場上的人們非常感興趣，他們希望使用這樣的工具來弄清楚他們需要在投資組合中真正將稀缺資源集中在哪裡。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

什洛莫·羅森鮑姆，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi. Thank you very much for taking my question. I just want to probe a little bit more in the ARR widening of the range because of this MSCI deal. Can you explain, again, there's a change in strategy, so therefore, some of the sales and the pipeline may not materialize this year as you're thinking of switching over to some of the MSCI products. Is that correct?

你好。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想進一步探討 ARR 範圍因 MSCI 交易而擴大的情況。您能否再次解釋一下，策略發生了變化，因此，當您考慮轉向某些 MSCI 產品時，今年的一些銷售和管道可能不會實現。那是對的嗎？

And then, how should we think about it on the flip side in terms of you selling stuff through Orbis? And trying to understand, is this a little bit of a slowdown, but then things should pop more in 2025 when the links are kind of set up technologically between two companies? Or is this something just kind of a slowdown and then we get back to what was before? Just if you can give a little more color on this.

然後，我們應該如何從另一方面考慮透過奧比斯銷售商品？試著理解，這是否有點放緩，但到 2025 年，當兩家公司之間在技術上建立了聯繫時，事情應該會更加流行？或者這只是一種放緩，然後我們又回到之前的狀態？如果你能對此多加一點色彩就好了。

Yeah. So maybe I'll first start by just kind of reiterating what Noémie said. The scores and data are actually a pretty small part of our overall, what we call the ESG and climate business. I know we defined that a couple of years ago. So it's really kind of a fraction of that.

是的。所以也許我首先要重申諾米所說的話。這些分數和數據實際上只占我們整體（我們所謂的 ESG 和氣候業務）的一小部分。我知道我們幾年前就定義了這一點。所以這實際上只是其中的一小部分。

But you're exactly right. I think that's what's going to happen is as we transition, you can imagine we have a sales pipeline of our own content threaded through our solutions. And so now we're going to be integrating in the MSCI content. We've got to be able to go out and talk to our customers. We've got to be able to integrate that. That is going to impact our sales pipeline in the near term.

但你是完全正確的。我認為隨著我們的轉型，將會發生這樣的情況，你可以想像我們有一個透過我們的解決方案貫穿我們自己的內容的銷售管道。因此，現在我們將整合 MSCI 內容。我們必須能夠走出去與客戶交談。我們必須能夠整合它。這將在短期內影響我們的銷售管道。

And it could also impact some of the retention in the near term. But I think in the medium term, having the opportunity to offer what is clearly best-in-class ESG content through to our customers, through our solutions, I think is going to be a positive for us. And we'll be able to kind of start to build the pipeline back. I would expect that will be a 2025 event.

它也可能影響短期內的一些保留。但我認為，從中期來看，有機會透過我們的解決方案向我們的客戶提供明顯一流的 ESG 內容，我認為這對我們來說將是積極的。我們將能夠開始重建管道。我預計這將是 2025 年的活動。

But again, remember, ESG scoring in data, purely scoring in data, that's a pretty small business for us.

但再次請記住，ESG 對數據進行評分，純粹對數據進行評分，這對我們來說是一項相當小的業務。

And then going the other way, the Orbis, going back to them?

然後走另一條路，奧比斯，回到他們身邊？

Yeah. So it's going to start with MSCI using Orbis for ESG scores. And that's a place where there's good demand from our customers. And I think sometimes, like many partnerships, you start with one thing and you continue to build into other opportunities. And I think there will be other opportunities for MSCI to be able to leverage our Orbis database beyond simply ESG and climate. And so again, I think that's something we'll see in probably a 2025 event. And private credit is going to be one of those places.

是的。因此，首先是 MSCI 使用 Orbis 進行 ESG 評分。這是我們客戶需求旺盛的地方。我認為有時，就像許多合作夥伴關係一樣，你從一件事開始，然後繼續創造其他機會。我認為，除了 ESG 和氣候之外，MSCI 還將有其他機會利用我們的 Orbis 資料庫。再說一遍，我認為我們可能會在 2025 年的活動中看到這一點。私人信貸將是其中之一。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

Yes. Hi. Thank you. I have a similar question, but on the government side. Because I think you mentioned that one consideration in terms of thinking about ARR is some of these government contracts that may be up for renewal later in the year. So just curious if you can remind us how big the government business might be. Is all of it up for renewal? And is it really, again, sort of a timing factor, or how should we think about the risk of a different administration? And I assume that this is mostly the KYC business, but any further color is appreciated.

是的。你好。謝謝。我也有類似的問題，但在政府方面。因為我認為您提到考慮 ARR 時的一個考慮因素是其中一些政府合約可能會在今年稍後續約。所以我很好奇你能否提醒我們政府業務有多大。全部都可以更新了嗎？這真的是時間因素嗎？我認為這主要是 KYC 業務，但任何進一步的顏色都會受到讚賞。

Yeah. So, we don't disclose around revenues by customer segment, but it's our smallest customer segment. But that said, it's been growing quite nicely over the last year or two. There's a lot of demand for it. I mean, as you said, the Orbis data supporting the governments really want to understand more about entities that they're engaging with, obviously.

是的。因此，我們不會以客戶群揭露收入，但這是我們最小的客戶群。但話雖如此，它在過去一兩年裡增長得相當不錯。對它的需求很大。我的意思是，正如您所說，支持政府的奧比斯數據顯然確實希望更多地了解他們正在接觸的實體。

I think we were just -- I don't want to over-rotate on this. I think we were just trying to be prudent. And we've got a few of these bigger contracts. These are one-year contracts. And we've -- you hear us talking about a little bit -- the potential for a little bit bumpier environment in the fourth quarter. And so we just wanted to acknowledge that there might be some risk that some of that could slip into the following year.

我認為我們只是——我不想在這個問題上過度輪換。我認為我們只是想保持謹慎。我們已經拿到了一些更大的合約。這些是一年合約。我們——你聽到我們談論了一點——第四季度環境可能會更加動盪。因此，我們只是想承認，可能存在一些風險，其中一些可能會推遲到下一年。

Yeah. And if you take each of those different factors individually, they're not significant in and of themselves. It's just a combination of all those things that made us want to widen the range of it. But as I said, the midpoint of our current guidance range is in the upper end of that high single-digit percent range. So I just want to put that into perspective again. We're talking a narrow range around that ballpark. Yeah.

是的。如果你單獨考慮這些不同的因素，它們本身並不重要。所有這些因素的結合讓我們想要擴大它的範圍。但正如我所說，我們目前指導範圍的中點位於高個位數百分比範圍的上限。所以我想再次審視這一點。我們談論的是圍繞該球場的一個狹窄範圍。是的。

And the renewals are probably mostly in our data and information business, I would say.

我想說，更新可能主要是在我們的數據和資訊業務。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

Yeah. Thank you. Beyond the GenAI product launches and scaling that revenue, what are the other call-outs that go into the assumed acceleration in MA in the medium-term framework? And I ask because KYC is doing really well, insurance already accelerated to a great growth rate, and R&I is assumed to have good growth in this year. So just with how diverse the business is, it seems hard to bank on all of the end markets doing well at once. So what are the other self-help factors? Thank you.

是的。謝謝。除了 GenAI 產品發布和擴大收入之外，中期框架中假設的 MA 加速還有哪些其他要點？我之所以這麼問，是因為 KYC 做得非常好，保險業已經加速到了很高的成長率，而 R&I 預計今年也會有良好的成長。因此，鑑於業務的多樣性，似乎很難指望所有終端市場同時表現良好。那麼還有哪些自助因素呢？謝謝。

Yeah. I would say, in a nutshell, it's probably our land and expand strategy. So we believe there remains a fairly significant cross-sell opportunity into banks and insurance companies. We've been focused on that for some time, but we actually think there is more upside to that.

是的。我想說，簡而言之，這可能是我們的土地和擴張策略。因此，我們認為銀行和保險公司仍然存在相當大的交叉銷售機會。我們已經關注這一點有一段時間了，但我們實際上認為這還有更多的好處。

There's some things that we're doing. Some of the things that Noémie talked about, some of the investments we're making are designed to help us with that expand cross-sell opportunity with banks and insurance companies. She talked about some of the platform engineering and being able to better understand customer usage across all of your product suite and so on.

我們正在做一些事情。諾米談到的一些事情以及我們正在進行的一些投資旨在幫助我們擴大與銀行和保險公司的交叉銷售機會。她談到了一些平台工程以及如何更好地了解客戶對所有產品套件的使用情況等。

So that's one. And then second is an expand opportunity with corporates. And you heard us talk a little bit about, on this call, going after a set of interconnected use cases around sales and marketing optimization, customer onboarding and monitoring, supplier risk, trade credit, all of that.

這就是其中之一。其次是擴大與企業的機會。您聽到我們在這次電話會議上談到了圍繞銷售和行銷優化、客戶引導和監控、供應商風險、貿易信貸等所有這些相互關聯的用例。

And so we've had some really nice sales wins with big multinational companies around some or all of those use cases, which has given us confidence to further invest in product development around all of that, to really industrialize our offering.

因此，我們圍繞著部分或全部這些用例與大型跨國公司取得了一些非常好的銷售勝利，這讓我們有信心進一步投資於所有這些用例的產品開發，以真正實現我們的產品工業化。

So it's expanding the revenue that we're generating from banking and insurance customers, and it's landing with these kind of big corporates around a collection of use cases. And that gives us confidence around the ability to continue to drive and accelerate growth.

因此，它正在擴大我們從銀行和保險客戶那裡獲得的收入，並且它正在圍繞一系列用例與這些大公司合作。這讓我們對繼續推動和加速成長的能力充滿信心。

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

拉塞爾·奎爾奇，《雷德本大西洋》。

Thank you. Yeah. Hi, guys. Thank you for having me on. You touched on the benefits of migrating to the SaaS platform in RMS. We've talked about that a lot. The 14% ARR growth in insurance is a great number.

謝謝。是的。嗨，大家好。謝謝你邀請我參加。您談到了遷移到 RMS 中的 SaaS 平台的好處。我們已經談過很多次了。保險領域 14% 的 ARR 成長是一個很大的數字。

Given the forecast for the upcoming very active weather season in the US, do you anticipate that's going to be a tailwind for RMS in the back end of the year? Have you baked that into guidance? And in fact, are you now in a better position to monetize these periods of increased sales? And are you now in a better position to monetize these periods of increased usage of data given you've migrated to the SaaS platform?

鑑於對美國即將到來的非常活躍的天氣季節的預測，您預計這將成為 RMS 在今年年底的順風車嗎？您是否已將其納入指導？事實上，您現在是否能夠更好地將這些銷售成長時期貨幣化？鑑於您已經遷移到 SaaS 平台，您現在是否能夠更好地利用數據使用量增加的時期來貨幣化？

This is an interesting question, Russell. I'm processing it at the moment here. I think I would say that so while we may have a very active extreme weather season coming up, particularly with North American hurricanes, I don't think that's going to translate into an immediate revenue or ARR bump.

這是一個有趣的問題，拉塞爾。我現在正在這裡處理。我想我會這麼說，雖然我們可能會面臨一個非常活躍的極端天氣季節，特別是北美颶風，但我認為這不會立即轉化為收入或 ARR 的成長。

But I would say that thematically, the increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events and increasing focus on understanding the impact of a changing climate and what kind of financial consequences that has, that is a theme that is driving more and more interest in our solutions. And it's going beyond simply the insurance market.

但我想說的是，從主題上講，極端天氣事件的嚴重性和頻率不斷增加，人們越來越關注了解氣候變遷的影響以及由此產生的財務後果，這是一個促使人們對我們的解決方案越來越感興趣的主題。而且它不僅限於保險市場。

I mean, in some cases, extreme weather actually -- extreme weather events can put pressure on our insurance customers. You've seen that in Florida. But in general, I would say there's a -- with insurers, there's an understanding that you need better and better data and models. And by the way, that's why there's interest in our cloud based as offering because you're able to leverage a lot more compute capacity, which can run these high-definition models that are actually better than the current generation of models.

我的意思是，在某些情況下，極端天氣實際上會給我們的保險客戶帶來壓力。你在佛羅裡達州已經看到了這一點。但總的來說，我想說的是，對保險公司來說，大家都知道需要越來越好的數據和模型。順便說一句，這就是為什麼人們對我們基於雲端的產品感興趣，因為您能夠利用更多的運算能力，這可以運行這些實際上比當前世代模型更好的高清模型。

But then you're seeing banks and other organizations who are also wanting to be able to understand all of this, because, for instance, banks have clearly realized that. They can actually have weather and climate risk. So as they're underwriting a commercial loan, wanting to understand the risk of the collateral they're taking. That's now become something banks are quite focused on.

但隨後你會看到銀行和其他組織也希望能夠理解這一切，因為銀行已經清楚地意識到了這一點。他們實際上可能面臨天氣和氣候風險。因此，當他們承銷商業貸款時，希望了解他們所承擔的抵押品的風險。現在這已經變成銀行非常關注的事情。

So I would say it's driving. It's driving more and more interest in our climate and weather and catastrophe modeling capabilities. But I wouldn't tie it to a seasonal set of events.

所以我會說它是駕駛。它促使人們對我們的氣候、天氣和災難建模能力越來越感興趣。但我不會將其與一系列季節性事件聯繫起來。

Yeah. And just to make a final point on the platform, I think one of the competitive differentiator for us with the interest, the risk insurance platform is it's open to third party models as well that can enrich the algorithm that gives it a more -- that makes it even powerful, more powerful for customers. And that's really where we differentiate ourselves.

是的。最後一點，我認為對我們來說，風險保險平台的競爭優勢之一是它也對第三方模型開放，這可以豐富演算法，從而賦予它更多的功能。說更加強大。這確實是我們與眾不同的地方。

Yeah. And looking back to when we bought our [mass]. I remember -- I still very clearly remember that call. And I remember saying, we got into that -- we made that acquisition for two reasons. One, to get into the insurance segment at scale. And I feel great about that. But second, because we wanted to take those really world class capabilities that RMS had and thread those through our solutions to a broader set of customers.

是的。回顧我們購買[彌撒]的時候。我記得──我仍然清楚地記得那通電話。我記得我說過，我們之所以這麼做──我們進行這次收購有兩個原因。一是大規模進入保險領域。我對此感覺很好。其次，因為我們希望利用 RMS 擁有的真正世界級的功能，並將這些功能透過我們的解決方案提供給更廣泛的客戶群。

And that is very much playing out. And I'm very glad that we own one of the world's premier climate and weather modeling platforms, because I think there's only going to be more and more demand for that in the years ahead.

這已經很明顯了。我很高興我們擁有世界上最重要的氣候和天氣建模平台之一，因為我認為未來幾年對此的需求只會越來越多。

Heather Balsky, Bank of America.

希瑟‧巴爾斯基，美國銀行。

Hi. Thank you very much for taking my question. I want to ask about MA. I know you've gotten a lot of questions today about ARR. And your guidance. But taking a, I guess, zooming out and you think about the growth algorithm you laid out at your -- back in yesterday, there's been a little bit more time. We're in probably a tougher environment than expected. Have you rethought the targets that you laid out? Do you think the algorithm maybe looks a little bit different than you originally thought in any way?

你好。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想問MA的情況。我知道您今天收到了很多有關 ARR 的問題。還有你的指導。但是，我想，縮小範圍，你會想到你在昨天部署的成長演算法，還有更多的時間。我們所處的環境可能比預期更艱難。您是否重新考慮過所設定的目標？您是否認為演算法看起來與您最初的想法有些不同？

Thanks. Hey, Heather. Look, first of all, I have to kind of remind all of us. This quarter, we did achieve our highest ARR growth rate that we've had. A little bit over 10%. Decision Solutions is now growing at a pace consistent with these medium-term targets, ARR growth of 13%.

謝謝。嘿，希瑟。聽著，首先，我必須提醒我們所有人。本季度，我們確實實現了有史以來最高的 ARR 成長率。比10%多一點點。 Decision Solutions 目前的成長速度與這些中期目標一致，ARR 成長 13%。

So actually, there's a lot to feel good about. There isn't a change to our medium-term outlook. We continue to view the medium-term targets as a north star that really drives innovation and investments. And I would expect that we'll talk about the medium-term targets annually, absent some sort of material catalyst to revisit them within the year. And there just hasn't been. There's been nothing that would lead me to believe I need to have a call and talk about this in the middle of the year.

所以實際上，有很多事情讓人感覺良好。我們的中期前景沒有改變。我們繼續將中期目標視為真正推動創新和投資的北極星。我預期我們將每年討論中期目標，但年內缺乏某種物質催化劑來重新審視這些目標。但還沒有。沒有什麼能讓我相信我需要在年中打電話討論這個問題。

So like I said, we've got very strong growth in our SaaS businesses. We talked about the pressure on banks and asset managers. And, Heather, you're right. That's a little bit different than the environment when we put those medium-term targets in place. But we're continuing to invest. We feel good about the innovations, the product development, the sales engagement, the partnership strategy. It's all designed to accelerate growth.

正如我所說，我們的 SaaS 業務成長非常強勁。我們討論了銀行和資產管理公司面臨的壓力。而且，希瑟，你是對的。這與我們制定中期目標時的環境有些不同。但我們仍在繼續投資。我們對創新、產品開發、銷售參與和合作夥伴策略感到滿意。這一切都是為了加速成長。

So we'll revisit this topic in February.

因此，我們將在二月重新討論這個主題。

I will now hand the call back to Rob for any closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給羅布，讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Thanks, everybody, for the questions. I hope everyone has a wonderful summer. And we look forward to talking with you again in October. Take care.

好的。謝謝大家的提問。我希望每個人都有一個美好的夏天。我們期待十月再次與您交談。小心。

This concludes Moody's Corporation's second-quarter 2024 earnings call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the investor resource succession of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

穆迪公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議至此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源繼承項下發布 MIS 收入細目。此外，穆迪投資者關係網站將在電話會議結束後提供重播。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連線。