穆迪 (MCO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call.

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded.

現在，我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

This morning, Moody's released its results for the fourth-quarter 2024 as well as our outlook for select metrics for full year 2025 and updates to our medium-term guidance.

今天上午，穆迪發布了 2024 年第四季度的業績以及我們對 2025 年全年精選指標的展望和中期指引的更新。

The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

收益新聞稿和本次電話會議的簡報均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上找到。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將提供非 GAAP 或調整後的數據。

Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliations between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US GAAP.

請參閱我們今天早上提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解美國 GAAP 中本次電話會議中引用的所有調整指標之間的對帳。

I call your attention to the Safe Harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release.

我請大家注意安全港條款，它可以在我們的收益報告結尾處找到。

Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

今天的言論可能包含 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的前瞻性聲明。

In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website.

根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層討論和分析部分以及我們截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告和公司提交的其他 SEC 文件中討論的風險因素，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。

These, together with the Safe Harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

這些內容與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能只能以收聽模式參加電話會議。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob.

我現在將電話轉給 Rob。

Thanks, Shivani, and thanks very much, everybody, for joining today's call.

謝謝 Shivani，非常感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

After our prepared remarks, Steve Tulenko, the President of Moody's Analytics; and Mike West, President of Moody's Investor Service, are going to join Noemie and me for the Q&A portion the call.

在我們準備好的發言之後，穆迪分析公司總裁史蒂夫·圖倫科 (Steve Tulenko) 發言；穆迪投資者服務公司總裁 Mike West 將與 Noemie 和我一起參加電話會議的問答部分。

And that's something that we've done for a few years now.

這是我們幾年來一直在做的事情。

Before I get into our results, I just want to acknowledge that it has been a difficult few weeks for many members of our team following the tragic loss of our dear friends and Moody's colleagues, Chris Collins and Melissa Nicandri in the Washington, DC plane crash.

在介紹我們的結果之前，我只想承認，由於我們親愛的朋友和穆迪的同事克里斯柯林斯和梅麗莎尼坎德里在華盛頓特區的飛機失事中不幸喪生，我們團隊的許多成員過去幾週過得非常艱難。

They really were cherished members of our team, and their loss leaves an immeasurable void.

他們確實是我們團隊中備受珍視的成員，他們的離去給我們留下了難以估量的損失。

And our thoughts are with their families during this incredibly difficult time.

在這極為艱難的時刻，我們的思念與他們的家人同在。

Now onto our results, Moody's delivered a record year in 2024.

現在來看看我們的業績，穆迪在 2024 年創下了創紀錄的一年。

We grew revenue by 20% to over $7 billion, with strong growth across both businesses.

我們的營收成長了 20%，達到 70 多億美元，兩項業務都實現了強勁成長。

And through disciplined cost management, we expanded our adjusted operating margin by over 400 basis points.

透過嚴格的成本管理，我們將調整後的營業利潤率提高了 400 個基點以上。

And that translated into a 26% adjusted diluted EPS growth, all while executing on strategic investments across both of our businesses.

這意味著調整後的攤薄每股收益成長了 26%，同時我們對兩項業務進行了策略性投資。

So MIS finished the year on a real high note, 18% total revenue growth powered by 29% transactional revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

因此，MIS 以高調結束了這一年，第四季度交易收入成長 29%，帶動總收入成長 18%。

And our rating standings were really active, and it wasn't just in the fourth quarter, but throughout the year, delivering 33% revenue growth for ratings and over 500 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion for the full year.

我們的評級排名非常活躍，這不僅是在第四季度，而是在全年，評級收入增長了 33%，全年調整後營業利潤率擴大了 500 個基點。

Moody's Analytics also had a strong finish to the year with 10% recurring revenue growth in the fourth quarter and 9% ARR growth.

穆迪分析公司今年也取得了強勁成績，第四季經常性收入成長 10%，ARR 成長 9%。

Decision Solutions continued to lead the way was $1.4 billion in ARR, growing at 12%.

決策解決方案持續領先，ARR 達到 14 億美元，成長率為 12%。

And as we look to the future, we're continuing to invest to deliver market-leading growth and attractive shareholder returns, and there are some very powerful deep currents that are driving demand across our business.

展望未來，我們將繼續投資，實現市場領先的成長和有吸引力的股東回報，而且有一些非常強大的深層潮流正在推動整個業務的需求。

And we've been making investments to ensure that we can capitalize on that demand.

我們一直在進行投資以確保能夠滿足這一需求。

And thinking about the future, as we enter the third year since we introduced our medium-term targets, today, Noemie and I are going to provide an update on our key metrics and what underpins our higher adjusted diluted EPS growth range.

展望未來，我們進入了推出中期目標的第三個年頭，今天，諾米和我將就我們的關鍵指標以及更高調整後攤薄每股收益增長範圍的基礎提供最新信息。

So as we set out this time last year on last year's fourth-quarter call, 2024 was a year in which we really doubled down on our investments in order to help us capitalize on some big opportunities that are in front of us.

因此，正如我們在去年第四季電話會議上所指出的那樣，2024 年是我們真正加倍投資的一年，以幫助我們利用眼前的一些重大機會。

And we executed on those foundational investments that we've called out on that earnings call at the start of last year.

我們執行了去年年初財報電話會議上提出的基礎投資。

And those included platforming and modernizing and included new products and also Gen AI.

其中包括平台化、現代化、新產品以及 Gen AI。

And we focused on the accessibility of our data state and also enhancements to our risk and resilience posture.

我們專注於資料狀態的可存取性以及風險和彈性態勢的增強。

We continue to invest in a rating agency in our positioning as the agency choice for investors and issuers, and I have to say I'm really proud that we were named best rating agency for an impressive 13th year in a row by Extel, formally Institutional Investor.

我們繼續投資評級機構，將我們定位為投資者和發行人的首選評級機構，而且我必須說，我真的很自豪，我們連續 13 年被 Extel（前身為機構投資者）評為最佳評級機構。

It's our experienced analysts, insightful research, and active market engagement that really reinforce our leadership position in the market, and that allows us in turn to capitalize on robust periods of issuance like this past year.

正是我們經驗豐富的分析師、深刻的研究和積極的市場參與真正鞏固了我們在市場上的領導地位，並使我們能夠利用過去一年這樣的強勁發行期。

We've also made investments to address the big shifts that are going on in the capital markets.

我們也進行了投資來應對資本市場正在發生的重大轉變。

The first of those is private credit.

第一是私人信貸。

And I am not just talking about direct leverage lending, which is a roughly $1.5 trillion market and growing, but also fund finance, infrastructure debt, and asset-backed finance, to name a few.

我所談論的不僅僅是直接槓桿貸款（這是一個規模約為 1.5 兆美元並且還在成長的市場），還包括基金融資、基礎設施債務和資產支援融資等等。

And with dedicated analytical and commercial focus on private credit made really good progress in this space this past year, rating nearly 400 private credit-related transactions in 2024.

透過專注於私人信貸的分析和商業關注，我們在過去一年中在這一領域取得了良好進展，對 2024 年近 400 筆私人信貸相關交易進行了評級。

Similarly we have a product suite to serve transition finance, and we issued over 150 second-party opinions and more than 20 net zero assessments in 2024, and we have a strong pipeline there as well.

同樣，我們擁有一套服務於過渡融資的產品，並且我們在 2024 年發布了 150 多份第二方意見和 20 多個淨零評估，而且我們在該領域也擁有強大的管道。

We also have a coordinated commercial and analytical initiative focused on digital infrastructure and data centers to ensure that we are the agency of choice in this space for the years to come.

我們還制定了專注於數位基礎設施和資料中心的協調商業和分析計劃，以確保我們成為未來幾年該領域的首選代理商。

Now, our strong financial performance this year allowed us to accelerate the build-out of MIS's technology applications for our analytical, commercial, and operational teams, and these investments are driving improvements in operational efficiency and allowing us to be increasingly volume agnostic within a range of issuance.

現在，我們今年強勁的財務業績使我們能夠加速為我們的分析、商業和營運團隊建立 MIS 技術應用，這些投資正在推動營運效率的提高，並使我們能夠在發行範圍內越來越不受數量影響。

And you can see this come through in our 60% margins in 2024 and our guidance for 2025.

您可以看到，我們 2024 年的利潤率達到 60%，而我們對 2025 年的期望也反映了這一點。

So I thought I'd just put this in perspective for you for a moment.

因此我想我應該暫時向您解釋一下這個問題。

We rated nearly 6.2 trillion of issuance in 2024.

我們預計 2024 年的發行量將接近 6.2 兆。

That's an increase of 42% compared to 2023.

與 2023 年相比，成長了 42%。

And Mike West has given me an interesting statistic, that throughout last year, our ratings teams issued a press release related to a credit opinion on average every 20 minutes.

麥克韋斯特給了我一個有趣的統計數據，去年全年，我們的評級團隊平均每 20 分鐘發布一份與信用意見相關的新聞稿。

And that's without needing to meaningfully increase our analytical staffing levels, and very importantly, we did this while maintaining the robust controls that the market and our regulators expect from us.

而且這不需要大幅增加我們的分析人員水平，而且非常重要的是，我們在做到這一點的同時，保持了市場和監管機構對我們期望的強有力的控制。

And as you've heard me say, we are always looking for ways to invest inorganically in ratings because it's a great business.

正如你聽到我說的，我們一直在尋找對評級進行無機投資的方法，因為這是一項偉大的業務。

And if you recall in mid 2024, we invested further in GCR, that's the leading domestic credit rating agency in Africa, taking our ownership up to almost 100%.

如果你還記得的話，2024 年中期，我們進一步投資了 GCR，這是非洲領先的國內信用評級機構，使我們的所有權幾乎達到 100%。

And in November, we expanded Moody's Local again, this time into six more countries across Central America.

11 月，我們再次擴大了穆迪本地業務，這次擴展到中美洲的另外六個國家。

And we are really pleased with the growth that we are seeing in Moody's Local.

我們對穆迪本地業務的成長感到非常高興。

Revenue is up 16% in 2024, and we signed several hundred first-time mandates.

2024 年營收將成長 16%，我們簽署了數百項首次授權。

So that's a great expansion of the rated portfolio across the region and really bodes well for the future.

因此，這是該地區評級投資組合的極大擴展，並且對未來確實是個好兆頭。

So let me turn to Moody's Analytics for a few moments.

因此，請容許我暫時轉向穆迪分析公司。

We have invested there to enhance our product platforms and go-to-market strategy as we continue to deepen our relationships with our traditional customer base, banks, and insurers, we've also expanded our data coverage and workflow solutions to serve large corporate customers and in-demand third-party risk domains.

我們在那裡進行了投資，以增強我們的產品平台和市場進入策略，同時繼續深化與傳統客戶群、銀行和保險公司的關係，我們還擴大了數據覆蓋範圍和工作流程解決方案，以服務大型企業客戶和需求旺盛的第三方風險領域。

That includes things like KYC, supplier risk, trade credit, transfer pricing, and master data management.

其中包括 KYC、供應商風險、貿易信貸、轉移定價和主資料管理等內容。

And within the last six months, we also made three important acquisitions that have enhanced our offerings in our banking and insurance businesses and added valuable data and analytics to our risk operating system.

在過去六個月內，我們還進行了三項重要收購，增強了我們在銀行和保險業務方面的產品，並為我們的風險操作系統增加了寶貴的數據和分析功能。

And those include Numerated which extends our loan origination system for banks, Predicat which adds to our capabilities in casualty underwriting and analytics, and most recently in January, CAPE Analytics which enriches our insights on properties and will integrate with our cat risk models.

其中包括 Numerated，它擴展了我們的銀行貸款發放系統，Predicat，它增強了我們在意外險承保和分析方面的能力，以及最近在 1 月份推出的 CAPE Analytics，它豐富了我們對房地產的洞察，並將與我們的巨災風險模型相結合。

So just a little bit more on Numerated for a moment.

稍微再多談談 Numerated 的問題。

We've been We've been collaborating with their team on joint offerings for some time, and that really highlighted the great fit between our respective lending workflow solution.

我們與他們的團隊在聯合產品方面已經有一段時間合作了，這確實凸顯了我們各自的借貸工作流程解決方案之間的高度契合。

So there was an obvious industrial logic to this.

這其中有明顯的工業邏輯。

And we've had some really encouraging response from our customers.

我們從客戶那裡得到了一些非常令人鼓舞的回饋。

In fact, we've already had a few noteworthy wins with Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks in the fourth quarter with our enhanced end-to-end commercial lending offering, and it's really resonating with our customers.

事實上，憑藉我們增強的端到端商業貸款服務，我們在第四季度已經與二級和三級銀行取得了一些值得注意的合作，並且確實引起了客戶的共鳴。

Switching over to insurance.

轉而投保。

Over the last several years, we've talked about the foundational investments that we've made in our cloud-based intelligent risk platform.

在過去幾年裡，我們一直在談論我們在基於雲端的智慧風險平台上所做的基礎投資。

We call that IRP.

我們稱之為 IRP。

And these investments are now delivering meaningful ARR growth for our insurance business.

這些投資現在正在為我們的保險業務帶來有意義的 ARR 成長。

In fact, in 2024, we grew the number of customers on the IRP by almost 20%.

事實上，到 2024 年，我們的 IRP 客戶數量增加了近 20%。

And migrating to the IRP then enables insurers to reduce, sometimes by as much as half, the time that they need to model complex scenarios across billions of property locations.

而遷移到 IRP 可以讓保險公司減少對數十億財產地點的複雜場景進行建模所需的時間，有時甚至可以減少一半。

And as our platform hosts the most modern, sophisticated, high-definition models, our customers are able to better measure and quantify their financial exposure as well as monitor the evolving risk in their portfolios at scale.

由於我們的平台擁有最現代、最複雜、最高清的模型，我們的客戶能夠更好地衡量和量化他們的財務風險，並大規模監控其投資組合中不斷變化的風險。

And this is helping to deepen our relationships with our customer base and expanding our strategic relationships with the largest global insurers, reinsurers and brokers in the world.

這有助於加深我們與客戶群的關係，並擴大我們與全球最大保險公司、再保險公司和經紀人的策略關係。

And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that for the third consecutive year, Moody's was ranked number one in the Chartis RiskTech100, providing market validation of our best-in-class solutions serving nearly 15,000 analytics customers.

如果我不提及，那我就是失職了，穆迪連續第三年在 Chartis RiskTech100 中排名第一，這為我們為近 15,000 名分析客戶提供的一流解決方案提供了市場驗證。

So a lot to be proud of in 2024.

2024 年有很多值得驕傲的事。

And while we had a strong 2024, I'm very excited about 2025 and beyond due to a set of deep currents that are changing the way that businesses and markets operate.

雖然我們在 2024 年表現強勁，但我對 2025 年及以後的發展感到非常興奮，因為一系列深層趨勢正在改變企業和市場的運作方式。

And given the investments that we've made over the last several years, we really are well positioned to ride those deep currents.

鑑於我們過去幾年來所做的投資，我們確實已經做好準備，去駕馭這些深層的趨勢。

And there are five that we are particularly focused on: first, the ongoing expansion and evolution of the debt capital markets that I just touched on; second, the increasing pace of digital transformation and automation across banks and insurers; third, the imperative for businesses to know more about who they're doing business with; fourth, the growing needs across industries to understand the financial impact of extreme weather events and a changing climate; and fifth, the transformative power of generative AI and the potential unlock for owners of proprietary data and insights.

其中我們特別關注的是五個面向：第一，我剛才提到的債務資本市場的持續擴張與發展；第二，銀行和保險公司的數位轉型和自動化步伐不斷加快；第三，企業必須更了解自己的生意對象；第四，各行各業越來越需要了解極端天氣事件和氣候變遷所帶來的財務影響；第五，產生人工智慧的變革力量以及為專有數據和見解所有者帶來的潛力。

So let me just double-click on the impact of extreme weather for a moment because this has been so much in the headlines lately.

因此，請允許我稍微討論一下極端天氣的影響，因為這最近成為新聞頭條。

And on past calls, we've talked about the need to better understand the physical risk relating to extreme weather events and climate change.

在過去的通話中，我們談到了更好地了解與極端天氣事件和氣候變遷相關的物理風險的必要性。

And when we announced the acquisition of RMS a few years ago, some folks asked us why did we think it was important to have these capabilities.

幾年前，當我們宣布收購 RMS 時，有人問我們為什麼認為擁有這些能力很重要。

Well, after Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the L.A. wildfires, I don't think anyone is questioning the need to better understand this.

好吧，在海倫颶風和米爾頓颶風以及洛杉磯山火之後，我認為沒有人會質疑更好地理解這一點的必要性。

I really believe we are at an inflection point.

我確實相信我們正處於一個轉捩點。

In fact, the issue of insurability of edits, both weather insurance is available and what the cost will be over time, has become a very important issue in property and financial markets.

事實上，保險的可保性問題，包括是否可以享受天氣保險以及隨著時間的推移成本是多少，已經成為房地產和金融市場的一個非常重要的問題。

And we've witnessed the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, combined with ongoing property development and inflation, which have made these events even more costly.

我們目睹了極端天氣事件發生的頻率和嚴重程度日益增加，再加上持續的房地產開發和通貨膨脹，這些都使這些事件的代價更加昂貴。

And the demand to better understand these risks, not just by insurers but by banks, investors, companies, governments, is only going up.

不僅保險公司，而且銀行、投資者、企業、政府對更了解這些風險的需求也不斷增加。

And that's why we acquired Cape Analytics.

這就是我們收購Cape Analytics的原因。

Their AI-powered technology delivers address-level risk insights, which are a natural complement to our catastrophe models.

他們的人工智慧技術提供了地址級風險洞察，這是對我們災難模型的自然補充。

And these sophisticated models, combined with our really rich and deep data and insights on credit and economics and properties, means that we are uniquely positioned to be the authoritative voice on quantifying the financial impacts of physical risk.

這些複雜的模型，加上我們在信貸、經濟和房地產方面真正豐富而深入的數據和見解，意味著我們在量化物理風險的財務影響方面具有權威性。

And we see this need continuing for years into the future.

我們認為這種需求將在未來幾年持續存在。

So we feel good about these deep currents as durable demand drivers for our business.

因此，我們對這些深層趨勢感到滿意，認為它們將成為我們業務的持久需求驅動力。

And Noemie is going to walk you through our full year '25 guidance assumptions in a moment.

諾米 (Noemie) 稍後將向您介紹我們 25 年全年指導假設。

And as we look forward after delivering a remarkable performance in 2024, we're going to provide an update on the progress against our medium-term targets.

展望 2024 年取得的卓越業績，我們將更新中期目標的進展。

But let me give you the bottom line: we have fundamentally strengthened the earnings power of this business, and that should support Moody's as a serial compounder in the years ahead.

但讓我告訴你底線：我們從根本上增強了這項業務的獲利能力，這應該會支持穆迪在未來幾年成為一家連續複合成長的公司。

So with that, Noemie, over to you.

那麼，Noemie，就交給你了。

Thank you, Rob, and hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，羅布，大家好，謝謝你們今天加入我們。

Starting with our Q4 results.

從我們的第四季業績開始。

We delivered a very strong finish, tapping a year of remarkable financial performance in '24.

我們取得了非常強勁的成績，在 24 年取得了卓越的財務表現。

You can see the highlights from our full year results on slide 9.

您可以在第 9 頁看到我們全年業績的亮點。

But Q4 revenues were nearly $1.7 billion, up 13% year-on-year.

但第四季的營收接近 17 億美元，年增 13%。

And our adjusted diluted EPS was $2.69 -- $2.62, up 20% year over year.

我們的調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.69 - 2.62 美元，年增 20%。

MIS delivered its second highest Q4 revenue on record with growth across all business lines.

MIS 第四季營收創史上第二高，所有業務線均成長。

The anticipated volatility around the US election didn't materialize.

美國大選引發的預期波動並未出現。

And with spreads at their tightest levels in over a decade, particularly in spec-grade, and the robust demand environment continued throughout the quarter until the last days of December.

價差處於十多年來的最窄水平，特別是在規格級，強勁的需求環境持續整個季度，直到 12 月的最後幾天。

MIS revenue in Q4 were $809 million, up 18% year on year.

第四季MIS營收為8.09億美元，年增18%。

The growth was driven primarily by three key factors.

成長主要受三個關鍵因素推動。

First, healthy leverage loan issuance activity, which was up 134 in Q4.

首先，槓桿貸款發放活動健康，第四季增加了134%。

However, with the mix weighted towards refinancing and repricing, transactional revenue for that asset class was up 27%; second, the continued strength from infrequent issuers in the banking and insurance sectors; and third, strong performance from structured finance, and particularly in US CLOs and CMBS, reflecting strong demand in a very favorable spread environment.

然而，由於組合偏向再融資和重新定價，該資產類別的交易收入成長了 27%；第二，銀行和保險業等不定期發行股票機構的股價持續強勁；第三，結構化融資表現強勁，尤其是美國 CLO 和 CMBS，反映出在非常有利的利差環境下的強勁需求。

MIS' fourth quarter performance and corresponding higher incentive compensation translated into a 51.3% adjusted operating margin, which exceeded our implied guidance.

MIS 第四季的業績和相應的更高的激勵薪酬轉化為 51.3% 的調整後營業利潤率，超過了我們的隱含指引。

Turning to MA.

轉向 MA。

We also had a strong Q4 with revenue of $863 million, up 8% year-on-year.

我們的第四季業績表現強勁，營收達 8.63 億美元，較去年同期成長 8%。

Recurring revenue, which accounts for 95% of total revenue in MA, grew 10% year-on-year, broadly in line with the 9.4% growth in ARR.

經常性收入佔 MA 總收入的 95%，年增 10%，與 ARR 9.4% 的增幅大致一致。

As Rob said, Decision Solutions drove the performance with 12% growth year on year.

正如 Rob 所說，決策解決方案推動了業績年增 12%。

We delivered strong growth across lines of businesses in Decision Solutions with banking, insurance and KYC achieving ARR growth of 9%, 12% and 17%, respectively.

我們在決策解決方案領域的各業務線都實現了強勁成長，其中銀行、保險和 KYC 的 ARR 成長率分別達到 9%、12% 和 17%。

More specifically, KYC ARR grew 17% with strong demand from customer and supplier risk data usage and sales from new customers.

更具體地說，由於客戶和供應商風險數據使用以及新客戶銷售的強勁需求，KYC ARR 成長了 17%。

Insurance ARR grew 12% driven by improved customer retention and strong demand for our cat model tools as extreme weather events are becoming more pervasive and impactful across industries.

由於極端天氣事件在各個行業變得越來越普遍和具有影響力，保險 ARR 增長了 12%，這得益於客戶保留率的提高和對我們的 Cat 模型工具的強勁需求。

This is generating demand for our best-in-class risk modeling solutions with the IRP.

這對我們採用 IRP 的一流風險建模解決方案產生了需求。

And our Q4 -- Q1 2025 acquisition of Cape Analytics only builds on this, as Rob highlighted.

正如 Rob 所強調的，我們在 2025 年第四季至第一季對 Cape Analytics 的收購只是在此基礎上進一步發展。

Banking ARR grew 9%, reflecting strong customer retention and expansion of relationships with subscription-based offerings that are enabling customers' lending, risk management and finance workflows.

銀行 ARR 成長 9%，反映了強大的客戶保留率和透過訂閱式產品擴大關係的能力，這些產品支援客戶的貸款、風險管理和財務工作流程。

The other two lines of businesses in MA include our more established data and research franchises.

馬薩諸塞州的另外兩條業務線包括我們更成熟的數據和研究特許經營權。

Data & Information grew ARR by 8% driven by demand from Orbis within the corporate sector.

受企業界 Orbis 需求的推動，資料和資訊業務的 ARR 成長了 8%。

Research & Insights grew ARR by 6% with the attrition events from the asset manager space we discussed earlier in the year affecting the growth rate.

研究與洞察使 ARR 成長了 6%，我們在今年稍早討論過的資產管理領域的人員流失事件影響了成長率。

That said, sales, meaning cross-sell, upsell or upgrades, grew meaningfully above ARR trends in full year '24.

也就是說，24 年全年的銷售額（即交叉銷售、追加銷售或升級）均顯著高於 ARR 趨勢。

And some of this was from upselling Research Assistant to our CreditView customers, which accounted for 25% of our overall Research & Insights ARR growth.

其中一部分來自向我們的 CreditView 客戶追加銷售研究助理，這占我們整體研究與洞察 ARR 成長的 25%。

We are encouraged by the customer engagement for Research Assistant, one of our GenAI offerings, and that's building a healthy pipeline for 2025 and has already reached more than 100 customers in Q4.

我們的 GenAI 產品之一 Research Assistant 的客戶參與令我們感到鼓舞，它正在為 2025 年建立健康的管道，並且已經在第四季度覆蓋超過 100 個客戶。

MA adjusted operating margin of 33.8% increased 240 basis points versus Q4 last year, leading to a full year margin of 30.7%, which is towards the high end of our annual guide.

MA 調整後的營業利潤率為 33.8%，較去年第四季增加了 240 個基點，導致全年利潤率為 30.7%，接近我們年度指引的高點。

Now turning to fiscal year '25 guidance.

現在轉向 25 財年指引。

We expect MCO revenue growth in the high single-digit range with an adjusted operating margin increasing by about 200 basis points to approximately 50%.

我們預計 MCO 營收成長率將達到高個位數，調整後的營業利潤率將增加約 200 個基點，達到約 50%。

And this is on the back of a fiscal year 2024 where we increased adjusted operating margin by 420 basis points.

這是在 2024 財年的基礎上，我們將調整後的營業利潤率提高了 420 個基點。

Our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range is a range of $14 to $14.50. Now for MIS, we expect market conditions will remain constructive this year with tight spreads, declining high-yield default rates and an uptick in M&A activity.

我們的調整後稀釋每股收益指引範圍為 14 美元至 14.50 美元。對於 MIS 而言，我們預計今年的市場狀況仍將保持良好，利差收窄、高收益違約率下降、併購活動增加。

You'll see our issuance outlook for individual asset class on this slide.

您將在這張投影片上看到我們對單一資產類別的發行前景。

But all in all, we projected MIS rated issuance growth to be in the low single-digit range for '25 with 700 to 800 first-time mandates.

但總體而言，我們預計 2025 年 MIS 評級發行量成長率將處於低個位數範圍，首次授權數量將達到 700 至 800 份。

For MIS revenue, we expect growth in the mid- to high single-digit percent range for the year, benefiting from a positive issuance mix.

對於 MIS 收入，我們預計將受益於積極的發行組合，今年的成長率將達到中高個位數百分比範圍。

We expect the revenue performance to translate into an adjusted operating margin of 62% to 63%, which at the midpoint represents about 250 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year.

我們預期營收表現將轉化為 62% 至 63% 的調整後營業利潤率，中間值代表利潤率年增約 250 個基點。

For MA, we expect revenue growth in the high single-digit range with ARR growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit range.

對於 MA，我們預計收入成長將在高個位數範圍內，ARR 成長將在高個位數到低兩位數範圍內。

We expect MA adjusted operating margin to be between 32% to 33%, which at the midpoint represents 180 basis points of margin expansion year-over-year.

我們預計 MA 調整後的營業利潤率將在 32% 至 33% 之間，中間值代表利潤率將年比擴大 180 個基點。

Turning to what underpins MA and the expected MCO margin expansion.

談談 MA 的支撐因素以及預期的 MCO 利潤率擴大。

We took a hard look at our operating model and believe we have an opportunity to simplify our organizational structure.

我們仔細審視了我們的營運模式，相信我們有機會簡化我們的組織結構。

In our Analytics business, we are, for the most part, through the integration of the businesses we've acquired over the recent years.

在我們的分析業務中，我們主要是透過整合近年來收購的業務來實現的。

We are also gradually reorienting our go-to-market from selling individual products to selling end-to-end solutions to our customers in the banking, insurance and corporate segment.

我們也正在逐步調整我們的市場定位，從銷售單一產品轉向為銀行、保險和企業領域的客戶銷售端到端解決方案。

This puts us in a position to combine resources in our customer-facing, marketing, product and data engineering functions and further consolidate our real estate footprint.

這使我們能夠整合客戶、行銷、產品和數據工程職能方面的資源，並進一步鞏固我們的房地產足跡。

And also more broadly across the organization, we're starting to reap the benefit of the investments we made in automating our workflows, which translates to expected improvements in operating leverage.

而且在整個組織範圍內，我們開始從我們在工作流程自動化方面所做的投資中獲得收益，這意味著營運槓桿的預期改善。

So in connection with this, today, we're announcing an efficiency program to simplify the organization, allowing us to accelerate profitability expansion and redirect some investment capacity to strategic growth areas.

因此，與此相關，今天，我們宣布了一項效率計劃，以簡化組織結構，使我們能夠加速獲利能力的擴張，並將部分投資能力重新引導到策略成長領域。

We plan to incur between $200 million and $250 million in restructuring charges over the two-year duration of the plan, primarily in personnel-related costs, for an expected total annualized cost savings in the range of $250 million to $300 million upon completion of the plan.

我們計劃在該計劃實施的兩年內承擔 2 億至 2.5 億美元的重組費用，主要用於人員相關費用，預計計劃完成後每年總成本節約將在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。

We accrued approximately $45 million already in the fourth quarter and expect to record an additional charge in the range of $8 million to $100 million in full-year '25 primarily in Moody's Analytics and to a lesser extent within our corporate functions.

我們在第四季度已經累計了大約 4500 萬美元，預計 25 年全年將額外記錄 800 萬至 1 億美元的費用，主要在穆迪分析方面，其次是在我們的公司職能方面。

I'd note that we have included the full-year '24 to full-year '25 operating expense bridge in the appendix of this presentation to assist with modeling questions.

我要指出的是，我們在本簡報的附錄中加入了 24 年全年至 25 年全年的營運費用橋，以協助解決建模問題。

And here's some color on how to think about the calendarization of top line and margin.

這裡有一些關於如何思考頂線和利潤日曆化的細節。

We expect MIS revenue in full-year '25 to follow a similar quarterly pattern to '24, with first quarter revenue up in the mid-single-digit range from the first quarter '24, ramping up in the second quarter before declining sequentially in our third and fourth quarter.

我們預計25年全年的MIS營收將與24年呈現類似的季度模式，第一季營收將比24年第一季成長中等個位數，第二季將有所成長，然後在第三季和第四季連續下降。

For MA, we expect our year-on-year total revenue growth to be consistent in the high single-digit percent range throughout the year with Q1 revenue being sequentially flat versus Q4 '24, a pattern that's consistent with the prior year.

對於 MA，我們預計全年總收入同比增長將保持在高個位數百分比範圍內，第一季營收與 24 年第四季相比持平，這一模式與上年一致。

For operating expenses and excluding the impact from restructuring and asset abandonment charges, we expect expenses to follow normal seasonal pattern.

對於營業費用，除去重組和資產處置費用的影響，我們預計費用將遵循正常的季節性模式。

Sequentially, we anticipate expenses to increase by about $10 million from Q4 to Q1.

我們預計第四季的支出將比第一季增加約 1000 萬美元。

And then we anticipate operating expense to follow a typical seasonal pattern but to remain relatively stable throughout the remainder of the year as savings associated from our efficiency program offset annual salary increases and variable costs associated with revenue.

然後，我們預計營運費用將遵循典型的季節性模式，但在今年剩餘時間內將保持相對穩定，因為我們的效率計劃帶來的節省抵消了年度工資增長和與收入相關的變動成本。

In terms of margin, we expect MIS to be in the mid-60s in the first half before declining in the second half in line with revenue.

就利潤率而言，我們預計上半年 MIS 將在 60 左右，下半年將與收入一起下降。

And for MA, we expect approximately 30% in the first quarter, sequentially improving in the second half to achieve our full year guidance of 32% to 33% as revenue ramps and as we start to see the savings from our efficiency plan in the second half.

對於 MA，我們預計第一季成長率約為 30%，下半年將持續改善，隨著收入的增加以及我們開始看到下半年效率計畫帶來的節省，實現全年 32% 至 33% 的預期。

In terms of how these different dynamics translate into adjusted diluted EPS, we expect this to follow the MIS revenue cadence.

至於這些不同的動態如何轉化為調整後的稀釋每股收益，我們預計這將遵循 MIS 收入節奏。

And more specifically for Q1, we expect adjusted diluted EPS to be at the high end of the implied quarterly adjusted diluted EPS range of $3.50 to $3.60. So finally, looking beyond 2025, I'd like to talk about how we're tracking against our medium-term targets.

更具體地說，對於第一季度，我們預計調整後稀釋每股收益將處於隱含的季度調整後稀釋每股收益範圍 3.50 美元至 3.60 美元的高端。最後，展望 2025 年以後，我想談談我們如何實現中期目標。

It has been three years since we published those and with almost a year in the CFO seat, I'm using this as an opportunity to take stock on how our performance has stacked up.

自從我們發布這些報告以來已經三年了，而且在擔任財務長近一年的時間裡，我利用這個機會來評估我們的業績表現。

The headline is this: 2024 adjusted diluted EPS is up 46% from two years ago.

標題是這樣的：2024 年調整後攤薄每股收益較兩年前增長了 46%。

And the midpoint of our full year 2025 guidance implies an 18% adjusted diluted EPS CAGR through the first three years, significantly above the low double-digit medium-term target growth rate.

我們對 2025 年全年業績的中點預測意味著前三年調整後攤薄每股收益複合年增長率為 18%，遠高於中期目標的低兩位數增長率。

Now a lot of this outperformance has been driven by very good execution during a robust issuance environment, with MIS revenue up 40.5% in the last two years and MIS adjusted margin already exceeding 60% in 2024.

現在，這種優異表現很大程度上得益於強勁的發行環境下的出色執行，MIS 收入在過去兩年中增長了 40.5%，MIS 調整後的利潤率在 2024 年已經超過 60%。

We also have delivered strong organic growth in MA, reporting ARR growth consistently in the range of 9% to 10% over the last two years.

我們還在 MA 中實現了強勁的有機成長，報告顯示過去兩年 ARR 成長率一直在 9% 至 10% 之間。

As we look forward, we expect our retention rate to remain in the low to mid-90% range and to continue to grow our new business at low to mid-teens percent pace, enabling us to sustain ARR growth in this 9% to 10% range in the coming years.

展望未來，我們預計留存率將保持在 90% 左右的低點至中位數區間，新業務也將繼續以 10% 左右的速度成長，這使我們能夠在未來幾年將 ARR 成長率維持在 9% 至 10% 的區間。

Of note, what's most notably different now from what we envisioned when we initially published our medium-term guidance is that our recent M&A has been at smaller scale and focused on enriching our offerings to fuel durable growth in our strategic growth areas, including lending and casualty underwriting.

值得注意的是，與我們最初發布中期指引時所設想的最顯著不同是，我們最近的併購規模較小，並專注於豐富我們的產品線，以推動我們戰略增長領域的持久增長，包括貸款和意外險承保。

On profitability, we've invested in GenAI and process automation more broadly for internal efficiencies.

在獲利能力方面，我們更廣泛地投資了 GenAI 和流程自動化，以提高內部效率。

We've invested in the build-out of the MA platform and our data interoperability, all of which are expected to generate increased operating leverage in the coming years.

我們已經投資了 MA 平台的建置和資料互通性，預計所有這些都將在未來幾年產生更高的營運槓桿。

We expect that this, coupled with our program to simplify our organizational structure, will translate into MA margin expansion in the mid- to high 30% range by 2027.

我們預計，這一點，加上我們簡化組織結構的計劃，到 2027 年，將使 MA 利潤率擴大到 30% 左右。

Now bringing this all together, for MCO, we are increasing the range for our adjusted diluted EPS growth from the low double-digit percent growth to low to mid-teens percent growth range, reflecting our ongoing efforts to improve the earnings power of our business.

現在把所有這些結合起來，對於 MCO，我們正在將調整後的稀釋每股收益增長範圍從低兩位數百分比增長提高到低到中百分之十幾的增長範圍，這反映了我們為提高業務盈利能力而做出的持續努力。

To wrap up, we believe the demand driver and the execution of our strategy will deliver attractive and sustainable growth and profitability expansion across market cycles.

總而言之，我們相信需求驅動和我們的策略執行將在市場週期中帶來有吸引力且可持續的成長和獲利能力擴張。

We remain committed to executing on our capital allocation strategy and anticipate consistent strong free cash flow returns to continue as we work to deliver on both our customers and shareholders.

我們將繼續致力於執行我們的資本配置策略，並預計在我們努力滿足客戶和股東需求的同時，將繼續獲得強勁的自由現金流回報。

I'd like to thank all of our colleagues around the world for their remarkable contributions to another great year for Moody's.

我要感謝全球所有同事為穆迪又一個偉大的一年所做出的傑出貢獻。

And with that, Rob, Mike and Steve and I will be happy to take your questions.

因此，羅布、麥克、史蒂夫和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

(操作員指示) 巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

I just wanted to ask you about the medium-term guide.

我只是想問你有關中期指導的問題。

I just wanted to confirm if those were organic numbers, particularly on the MA side, and just maybe just some of the moving pieces in there.

我只是想確認這些是否是有機數字，特別是在 MA 方面，也許只是其中的一些移動部分。

It sounds like, Noemie, from your last comment, maybe there's less M&A than what you initially thought.

諾米，從你上次的評論來看，也許併購的數量比你最初想像的要少。

Is that correct?

那正確嗎？

So we're in the third year of the medium-term target.

因此，我們正處於中期目標的第三年。

As I said, I'm almost a year in the CFO seat.

正如我所說，我擔任財務長已經近一年了。

So it's a good time to take stock and look at how we did, how we're tracking.

因此，現在是盤點並看看我們的表現如何、進展如何的好時機。

As I said, we're tracking ahead on MCO revenue and adjusted diluted EPS metrics, and MIS operating margin is already up 60%.

正如我所說，我們正在追蹤 MCO 收入和調整後稀釋每股盈餘指標，MIS 營業利潤率已經上漲了 60%。

So we delivered strong organic growth in MA.

因此我們在 MA 實現了強勁的有機成長。

We had reported growth consistently in the 9% to 10% range over the last two years, and I think that's what you should expect us to deliver over the medium term.

過去兩年，我們的成長率一直維持在 9% 到 10% 之間，我想這也是大家所期待的我們在中期內能夠實現的成長率。

What's -- to your point, what's to note, we had a bit lower contribution from M&A than what we initially envisioned when we published those medium-term target initially.

關於您的觀點，值得注意的是，我們從併購中獲得的貢獻比我們最初發布中期目標時預想的要低一些。

We had a different rate environment back then.

當時我們面臨的利率環境不同。

So again, we're committed to deliver 9% to 10% ARR growth, as I said, over the medium term.

所以，正如我所說，我們致力於在中期內實現 9% 至 10% 的 ARR 成長。

And that's mostly organic.

而且大部分都是有機的。

We may do a bit of tuck-ins, but that's really what's driving the main change here.

我們可能會做一些調整，但這才是真正推動主要變革的因素。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I just wanted to follow up on that midterm questions, particularly on margins.

我只是想跟進一下期中考的問題，特別是關於利潤率的問題。

So the MIS margins are already at low 60%.

因此 MIS 利潤率已低於 60%。

So just wanted to better understand, is there not much room for margin expansion on -- with issuance just given the high incremental margins there?

所以只是想更好地理解，考慮到那裡的增量利潤率很高，發行方面利潤率擴張的空間是否不大？

But also what does it imply for earnings growth in the midterm?

但這對於中期獲利成長又意味著什麼呢？

Are we implying a much more modest earnings growth profile?

我們是否暗示獲利成長情況會更加溫和？

Any color there will be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

So on MIS margin for 2025, just to kind of give you a little bit more color on what's on our guidance, you got to remember, we had a higher incentive compensation accruals in 2024 as a result of the extraordinary performance.

因此，關於 2025 年的 MIS 利潤率，只是為了讓您更清楚地了解我們的指導內容，您必須記住，由於出色的表現，我們在 2024 年獲得了更高的激勵薪酬應計額。

We rebaselined that at the beginning of each year.

我們每年年初都會重新調整基準。

So obviously, that gives us a bit of tailwind in the margin for 2025.

顯然，這為我們 2025 年的利潤帶來了一些順風。

And then in terms of further out in the medium term, we're continuing to make investments in our Ratings business.

從中期來看，我們將繼續對評級業務進行投資。

We mentioned the workflows -- the rating workflow, the analytical tool so that we can make our analysts more efficient and really focus on what they do best, which is talking to our customers, our issuance and doing some research.

我們提到了工作流程——評級工作流程、分析工具，這樣我們就可以提高分析師的效率，並真正專注於他們最擅長的領域，即與我們的客戶交談、發行債券和進行一些研究。

And we're continuing to invest in our risk and resiliency program.

我們將繼續投資於我們的風險和彈性計劃。

As you know, we are regulated.

正如您所知，我們受到監管。

And so we continue to improve and enhance our internal controls with automation there.

因此，我們將繼續透過自動化來改進和加強我們的內部控制。

And we're investing in a lot of areas that are going to fuel growth of the Ratings business in the long term like private credit, sustainable finance.

我們正在許多領域進行投資，這些領域將長期推動評級業務的成長，例如私人信貸、永續金融。

And I'm sure Mike and Rob can give some color on that as well.

我相信 Mike 和 Rob 也可以對此作出一些解釋。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

I wanted to ask about MA margins.

我想詢問有關 MA 利潤率的問題。

Really great quarter and higher-than-expected guide.

確實是一個非常棒的季度，而且指南高於預期。

You talked about the efficiency plan, which was very helpful.

您談到了效率計劃，這非常有幫助。

Are you pulling back on investment at all?

你們是否會減少投資？

And just any additional color on simplification or the efficiency plan?

還有關於簡化或效率計劃的額外說明嗎？

And maybe embedded in the whole thing is sort of AI and if -- how you're thinking about investment there and cost savings from it.

也許整個事情都嵌入了某種人工智慧，以及您如何考慮在那裡進行投資以及如何從中節省成本。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll start and I'll have Steve provide some color as well.

我先開始，然後我也讓史蒂夫提供一些顏色。

As I said, we -- we said, I think in the last earnings call, we're mostly through our large investment cycles.

正如我所說，我們 - 我們說過，我認為在上次財報電話會議上，我們基本上已經經歷了大型投資週期。

We're redeploying now capital internally.

我們現在正在內部重新部署資本。

We're self-funding some major investments around sales to go after the corporate segment.

我們正在自籌資金進行一些圍繞銷售的重大投資，以進入企業市場。

We're making some investments there.

我們正在那裡進行一些投資。

We're continuing to invest in our platform and our data estate as well.

我們將繼續投資我們的平台和數據資產。

Now the efficiency is really coming from -- that's the -- we're at the point where we've integrated, for the most part, the acquired entities.

現在效率的真正來源是──也就是──我們正處於整合大部分收購實體的階段。

We are shifting a little bit our go-to-market to focus more end-to-end solutions towards our customer segment.

我們正在稍微改變我們的市場定位，將更多的端到端解決方案集中在我們的客戶群上。

That gives us some opportunity to simplify the organization.

這為我們提供了簡化組織的一些機會。

And Steve can talk about some of the things he's doing.

史蒂夫可以談談他正在做的一些事情。

We've also, to your point, invested in GenAI.

正如您所說，我們也投資了 GenAI。

That's delivered some very nice efficiency gains in engineering as well as in our customer success group.

這為工程部門以及我們的客戶成功團隊帶來了非常好的效率提升。

So obviously, we're starting to reap the benefits of that as well.

顯然，我們也開始從中獲益。

Everything you said there makes good sense.

您說的一切都很有道理。

I would say, the simplification dynamic is a rich one and I think a very valuable way to think about this.

我想說，簡化的動態是豐富的，我認為這是一種非常有價值的思考方式。

Maybe most importantly, we're concentrating on those use cases and those areas where we perceive the demand to be the richest among our customers.

也許最重要的是，我們專注於那些用例和我們認為客戶需求最豐富的領域。

Rob talked about big drivers of growth in the future, and we're making investments in those, concentrating on those and redeploying toward those, sometimes redeploying out of some areas that aren't going to be as fast growing.

羅布談到了未來成長的主要動力，我們正在對這些動力進行投資，集中精力並重新部署，有時會重新部署一些成長不會那麼快的領域。

So that's probably the other big change there.

這可能是另一個重大變化。

But just to reinforce, GenAI really is making a difference internally.

但需要強調的是，GenAI 確實在內部發揮作用。

We're pretty excited about the productivity gains we're seeing in engineering especially and starting to see some on the sales side as well, already seeing some in customer service.

我們對工程領域生產力的提升感到非常興奮，也開始看到銷售方面和客戶服務方面也出現了類似的進展。

So pretty excited about that.

我對此感到非常興奮。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

瑞銀的亞歷克斯·克拉姆（Alex Kramm）。

Very quickly on the Ratings side, obviously laid out kind of some of the expectations, but maybe you can dig a little bit deeper for 2025, the puts and takes on the range.

在評級方面，顯然很快就列出了一些預期，但也許你可以更深入地挖掘 2025 年的預期範圍。

Where do you think some upside can come from, for example, M&A?

您認為優勢可能來自哪裡，例如併購？

And what do you see as the biggest risk for the outlook here?

您認為前景最大的風險是什麼？

Alex, it's Rob.

亞歷克斯，我是羅布。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So let me give you a little insight into maybe a few of the -- some of the key assumptions here in the outlook.

因此，讓我向您稍微介紹一下展望中的一些關鍵假設。

I mean, first of all, economic growth, we think, is going to support broader market activity.

我的意思是，首先，我們認為經濟成長將支持更廣泛的市場活動。

Spreads are tight.

價差很小。

They may widen a little bit during the balance of the year, but we'll still be well below historical levels, we expect.

我們預計，在今年餘下時間裡，這一差距可能會略有擴大，但仍將遠低於歷史水平。

And we think we're going to see continued strong investor demand.

我們認為投資者需求將持續強勁。

Refinancing and improved M&A activity are going to be key drivers.

再融資和改善的併購活動將成為關鍵驅動因素。

In regards to refi, there's a fairly wide range of assumptions about refi volumes for leveraged loans, in particular, for 2025 when you look across all the banks.

關於再融資，對於槓桿貸款的再融資量有相當廣泛的假設，特別是從所有銀行的角度來看，到 2025 年。

And it ranges from leveraged loan issuance being substantially down to being up.

其範圍包括槓桿貸款發放量大幅下降和上升。

And you can see in our webcast deck, we're kind of somewhere in between down mid-single digits.

您可以在我們的網路廣播平台上看到，我們的成長率處於個位數中段。

So that's one.

這就是其中之一。

And the second is -- the second key variable is M&A activity.

第二個關鍵變數是併購活動。

And we've assumed something like a 50% increase in M&A for 2025, meaning that M&A will be an increasing percent of the use of proceeds.

我們預計 2025 年併購交易將增加 50% 左右，這意味著併購交易在收益使用中所佔的比例將持續增加。

And that is favorable to revenue mix.

這有利於收入組合。

And just to give you a sense of the sensitivity there, if it was something like 20% to 25% increase, that might be 2 to 3 percentage points of revenue growth.

只是為了讓您了解那裡的敏感度，如果增長 20％ 到 25％，那麼收入可能就會增長 2 到 3 個百分點。

We also haven't assumed any risk-off periods.

我們也沒有假設任何風險規避期。

When you've got a forecast that calls for more than $6 trillion, we've assumed virtually all blue-sky days.

當你得到超過 6 兆美元的預測時，我們幾乎都假設了所有美好的時光。

So there are a lot of things, obviously, that go in to issuance.

因此，顯然有很多事情與發行有關。

It's not just one assumption.

這不只是一個假設。

But taken together, Alex, that explains our guidance range for revenues that spans mid- to high single digits on low single-digit issuance growth.

但綜合起來，亞歷克斯，這解釋了我們的收入指導範圍，即在低個位數發行量增長的基礎上跨越中高個位數。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

沃澤爾（Scott Wurtzel），沃爾夫研究公司。

I wanted to go back to Moody's Analytics.

我想回到穆迪分析公司。

I'm wondering if you can speak to just the sort of broader demand environment that you're seeing and how sales cycles are trending.

我想知道您是否可以談談您所看到的更廣泛的需求環境以及銷售週期的趨勢。

I know if we go back a quarter or 2, maybe on the GenAI side, there were some longer sales cycles.

我知道如果我們回顧一個或兩個季度，也許在 GenAI 方面，銷售週期會更長。

So wondering if we can get an update on that and just demand more broadly.

所以想知道我們是否可以得到有關該問題的最新消息並提出更廣泛的要求。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe I'll take that.

所以也許我會接受它。

Thanks, Scott, for the question.

謝謝斯科特提出這個問題。

So I think, first of all, the length of sales cycle has not changed materially over the last 18 to 24 months, I would say.

因此我認為，首先，銷售週期的長度在過去 18 到 24 個月內並沒有實質變化。

That's been a question we've heard a couple of times.

我們已經聽過幾次這個問題了。

And I think in general, we're seeing patterns that are consistent with the patterns we've seen in the last couple of years.

我認為總體而言，我們看到的模式與過去幾年看到的模式一致。

I'd say we're very encouraged by pipeline.

我想說我們對管道感到非常鼓舞。

Our new business production has actually been very good in 2024 across the board and across segments.

我們 2024 年各個領域新業務的產出其實都非常好。

Retention, strong in 2024 as well.

2024 年的保留率同樣強勁。

We held, in fact, at the same level -- actually slightly higher than what we saw in '23.

事實上，我們保持在同一水平——實際上略高於23年的水平。

So retention, about the same, maybe a little bit better.

因此保留率大致相同，甚至可能更好一些。

New business production in general, better across the board.

新業務生產整體呈現全面好轉。

And I would say, pipeline going into '25 is very strong as well.

我想說的是，進入 25 年的管道也非常強勁。

So very encouraging.

非常令人鼓舞。

And if I just add -- sorry, I was just going to add on the new business growth.

如果我只是想補充一下——抱歉，我只是想補充一下新業務的成長。

That was really an encouraging sign that we saw in Research & Insights and across all the businesses, actually, where we had new business growth going faster than ARR.

這確實是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，我們在研究與洞察以及所有業務中都看到了這一點，實際上，我們的新業務成長速度快於 ARR。

And we had some very interesting use cases on Research Assistant.

我們在研究助理上有一些非常有趣的用例。

And that gives us confidence on the outlook.

這讓我們對前景充滿信心。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉、奧本海默。

So again, MA, sorry for multiple questions here.

所以，MA，再次抱歉，我在這裡問了多個問題。

But you expect your revenue to grow high single digit even though your ARR is expected to grow high single to low double-digit.

但是，即使您的 ARR 預計會以高個位數到低兩位數的速度成長，您也預計您的收入也會以高個位數的速度成長。

Should we expect this dynamic -- there's still like, I don't know, maybe 2% or 3% gap between the two, like this dynamic to continue in the near to medium term?

我們是否應該預期這種動態——兩者之間可能仍然存在 2% 或 3% 的差距，這種動態會在近期到中期內持續下去？

When and what does it take for revenue to actually accelerate to low double digit?

什麼時候、要如何才能讓收入真正加速到兩位數以下？

And also, how much have you baked in some of the new initiatives, such as AI, MSCI partnership and other new product launch in your guidance?

此外，您在指導中考慮了一些新舉措，例如人工智慧、MSCI 合作夥伴關係和其他新產品發布等多少內容？

So just a couple of things on revenue.

關於收入，我只想說幾件事。

First of all, that can include some M&A, FX.

首先，這包括一些併購和外匯。

And so ARR is an organic constant currency growth number.

因此，ARR 是一個有機恆定貨幣成長數字。

So that's just one clarification.

這只是一點澄清。

In terms of the best way to look at it, ARR and recurring revenue over a trailing 12-month period should be pretty consistent.

從最佳的角度來看，過去 12 個月的 ARR 和經常性收入應該相當一致。

If you look at 2024, for example, our recurring revenue was in 9%, and that's very consistent with ARR.

例如，如果你看看 2024 年，我們的經常性收入為 9%，這與 ARR 非常一致。

What's really driving the difference is transactional revenue is going down and provides a bit of a headwind.

真正造成這種差異的原因是交易收入的下降，並帶來了一些阻力。

We'll continue to see that in the foreseeable future as we have still customers remaining on our more on-premise platforms outside of the US in banking and insurance.

在可預見的未來，我們將繼續看到這種情況，因為我們仍然有美國以外的銀行和保險業客戶使用我們更多的內部部署平台。

But we expect that to continue to narrow as we migrate those customers over in the platform.

但我們預計，隨著我們在平台上遷移這些客戶，這一差距將會持續縮小。

I think that's the best way to look at it.

我認為這是看待這個問題的最好方式。

And

和

How book guidance have you baked in any AI and MSCI, all this into your guidance?

您在多大程度上將任何 AI 和 MSCI 納入了書籍指導中，將所有這些都納入了您的指導中？

We incorporate those into our plans.

我們將這些納入我們的計劃中。

I would say, the sales pipeline is big enough that they are contributors to the pipeline, but they're not major contributors or material contributors across the whole business?

我想說，銷售管道夠大，他們是通路的貢獻者，但他們不是整個業務的主要貢獻者或重要貢獻者？

Yes, I would say though that -- so it's all baked in, but Research Assistant has been very helpful to sales in Research & Insights and 25% of the growth in Research & Insight ARRs from customers who subscribe to Research Assistant.

是的，我想說的是，雖然這一切都是確定的，但研究助理對研究與洞察的銷售非常有幫助，研究與洞察 ARR 成長的 25% 來自訂閱研究助理的客戶。

And the weighted sales pipeline for Research Assistant is double the total sales for fiscal '24.

研究助理的加權銷售管道是 24 財年總銷售額的兩倍。

So we've got larger opportunities around workflow automation, and we're seeing good momentum.

因此，我們在工作流程自動化方面擁有更大的機遇，而且我們看到了良好的勢頭。

So it's an important contributor to growth, even though it's modest in terms of the overall base of revenues.

因此，儘管它對整體收入基數的貢獻不大，但它仍然是成長的重要貢獻者。

Jeffrey Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO資本市場Jeffrey Silber。

With all the discussion coming out of Washington, DC, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, first, your exposure to federal government as a customer, and then more broadly, in terms of some of the expected policy changes, what the impact on your business might be.

鑑於華盛頓特區正在進行的討論，我想知道您是否可以先談一談您作為客戶對聯邦政府的接觸情況，然後更廣泛地談談一些預期的政策變化，這些變化對您的業務可能產生什麼影響。

So in terms of the overall impact, it's pretty small.

因此就整體影響而言，它相當小。

We have an overall MCO level -- it's less than 1% of our consolidated revenue.

我們的整體 MCO 水準不到我們合併收入的 1%。

And maybe I'll let Rob talk a little bit about some policy changes and how we're looking at that.

也許我會讓羅布談談一些政策變化以及我們對此的看法。

Yes.

是的。

So I think it's important to kind of zoom out for a moment and just think about what the world has been through over the last five years.

因此我認為有必要暫時放眼望去，思考過去五年世界經歷了什麼。

And -- we've got a pandemic.

而且──我們遭遇了疫情。

We had a huge negative shock to GDP and employment.

我們的GDP和就業遭受了巨大的負面衝擊。

Then we had a huge monetary and fiscal stimulus in response, then that led to record inflation and an interest rate shock.

然後我們推出了大規模的貨幣和財政刺激措施，結果導致了創紀錄的通膨和利率衝擊。

And as the pandemic has subsided, we had two military conflicts in key energy-producing regions.

隨著疫情的消退，我們在主要能源生產區發生了兩場軍事衝突。

But through all of this, the global economy has been surprisingly resilient and has been able to adapt.

但在經歷了這一切之後，全球經濟卻出乎意料地恢復活力並且能夠適應。

So I think it's important just to keep that backdrop because obviously, there's a large volume of executive orders and policy directives that span a number of different issues.

因此我認為了解這一背景很重要，因為顯然有大量的行政命令和政策指令涉及許多不同的問題。

But the headlines don't tell all the story.

但新聞標題並不能說明全部。

I think we'll see some impact in certain sectors based on what happens with tariffs, and you can imagine sectors like autos and retail and steel and aluminum, immigration sectors like agriculture and hospitality and construction.

我認為，關稅的變化會對某些產業產生一定影響，你可以想像汽車、零售、鋼鐵和鋁等產業，以及農業、旅館和建築等移民產業。

You could see on fossil fuel producers.

您可以看到化石燃料生產商。

So they're going to be, I think, some -- again, some puts and takes here.

所以我認為，他們將會在這裡再次做出一些讓步。

We may see, more broadly, a stronger economic environment that's going to be good for issuance in general.

從更廣泛的角度來看，我們可能會看到更強勁的經濟環境，這將有利於整體發行。

So I think from a -- also from a rating agency perspective, we're really going to anchor on the credit impacts of all this, and we're putting out a lot of research about what those impacts could be.

因此，我認為從評級機構的角度來看，我們確實要關注所有這些因素對信貸的影響，並且我們正在對這些影響可能是什麼進行大量研究。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛‧莫特馬登 (David Motemaden)，Evercore ISI。

I had a question just on the higher medium-term outlook for MIS revenue, the high single to low double-digit growth now versus mid- to high growth when you guys last updated these medium-term targets.

我有一個問題，是關於 MIS 收入的中期前景，現在是高個位數到低兩位數的增長，而你們上次更新這些中期目標時是中高增長。

Could you help me think through what's driving that uptick?

您能幫我思考一下推動這種上漲的原因是什麼嗎？

Are there any big movements in the long-term building blocks that you've given in the past?

您過去給的長期建置模組有沒有什麼大的動作？

Or is it just M&A coming back that's driving that?

或者僅僅是併購的回歸推動了這個趨勢？

And maybe also if you could just talk about how we should think about the third-party private credit rating assessments contributing to that as well would be helpful.

也許如果您能談談我們應該如何看待第三方私人信用評級評估對此做出的貢獻，那將會很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

So I think maybe the first thing just to anchor on is this is -- we're still anchoring off of the base year of 2022 and the medium-term targets that we put out.

因此，我認為也許首先要確定的是——我們仍然以 2022 年為基準年，並確定我們制定的中期目標。

So we're now a couple of years into that.

所以我們現在已經進入這個階段好幾年了。

We've got guidance out for the third year, and we're kind of looking out to now where do we think we're going to be five years out in 2027.

我們已經發布了第三年的預期，現在我們正在展望，我們認為 2027 年五年後的業績將會如何。

So we got two years in the books.

因此，我們已經有兩年的時間了。

We've got a year of guidance and two years of unknown.

我們有一年的指導期和兩年的未知期。

And so what you're seeing is us now just updating.

所以您看到的只是我們現在的更新。

And an important part of that is the performance that we've already achieved.

其中重要的一部分就是我們已經取得的業績。

So that -- hopefully, that gives you a sense.

所以 — — 希望這能給你一點啟發。

But Mike, maybe just talk a little bit about some of the demand drivers for issuance because I think that also gives some insight into the durability of growth in Ratings.

但麥克，也許只需稍微談談發行的一些需求驅動因素，因為我認為這也能讓我們了解評等成長的持久性。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

As Rob mentioned earlier, what you've got is a lower rate of M&A over the last few years that we do anticipate to come back because there's large pent-up demand.

正如 Rob 之前提到的，過去幾年的併購率較低，我們預計這一比例會回升，因為存在大量被壓抑的需求。

But if I move away from some of those traditional M&A refunding studies and think a little bit more broadly about growth of private credit, whether that is in direct lending, whether that's in securitization, whether that's in fund finance or whether it's in the broader reallocation of capital into the private market away from the banks.

但是，如果我擺脫一些傳統的併購再融資研究，而更廣泛地思考私人信貸的成長，無論是直接貸款，還是證券化，還是基金融資，還是將資本從銀行轉移到私人市場。

Then on top of that, got to think about some of the drivers in that sustainable and transition finance area.

除此之外，還要考慮可持續和過渡融資領域的一些驅動因素。

There are clean energy commitments, around 93% of global GDP, which is expected to translate in investment needs of about 2.5 times by 2030.

清潔能源承諾佔全球GDP的93%左右，預計到2030年將轉化為投資需求的2.5倍左右。

And Rob also talked about digitalization and digital infrastructure, which again is another multitrillion-dollar market that needs long-term financing for long-term assets, and that could be project finance, it could be corporate finance or it could be some form of securitization.

羅布也談到了數位化和數位基礎設施，這又是一個數萬億美元的市場，需要長期資產的長期融資，這可能是專案融資，可能是企業融資，也可能是某種形式的證券化。

So when we think of that third building block, the evolution of the debt capital market, these are some of the things that we're investing in.

因此，當我們考慮第三個基石，即債務資本市場的發展時，這些就是我們正在投資的一些內容。

We are engaging in with market participants and feel very good as part of that medium-term story.

我們正在與市場參與者進行接觸，並且作為中期故事的一部分感到非常高興。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治通 (George Tong)。

With respect to the MA segment and your medium-term target of high single, low double-digit growth, how are you thinking about growth by subsegments, so Decision Solutions, Research & Insights and Data & Information?

關於 MA 細分市場和您的中期目標（高個位數、低兩位數成長），您如何考慮按細分市場（決策解決方案、研究與洞察和數據與資訊）進行成長？

And what do you see as driving the differences in growth between those segments?

您認為造成這些細分市場成長差異的原因是什麼？

Maybe I'll take -- I'll talk to that, George.

也許我會接受——我會談論這個，喬治。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

It's Steve.

是史蒂夫。

So first of all, if you just think about the core franchises, these franchises have been around literally for decades, the Data & Information business, the Research & Insights business.

首先，如果你只考慮核心特許經營權，這些特許經營權實際上已經存在了幾十年，即數據和資訊業務、研究和洞察業務。

These businesses have demonstrated a good track record of solid growth, maybe above average for the industry or above average for our peer group with ARR numbers in the high single digits.

這些企業都表現出了穩健成長的良好記錄，或許高於行業平均水平，或者高於同行平均水平，ARR 數字都達到高個位數。

We think that's going to continue very reliably into the future.

我們認為，這種趨勢在未來仍將持續下去。

You've got continued investments in terms of data quality, data coverage and -- as well as tools like the GenAI tools that we've talked about as well.

您在數據品質、數據覆蓋範圍以及我們討論過的 GenAI 工具等方面獲得了持續的投資。

So we believe these to be strong solid performers in the future, delivering good retention and good new business numbers.

因此，我們相信，這些公司未來將表現強勁、穩健，實現良好的保留率和良好的新業務數量。

The Decision Solutions unit, where you have some of the higher-growing businesses, most notably KYC and third-party risk management work that we do to help people understand who they do business with, that's put up some really nice numbers in terms of ARR numbers in the recent past and continues to do so, we think, in the future.

決策解決方案部門擁有一些成長較快的業務，最值得注意的是 KYC 和第三方風險管理工作，我們透過這些工作幫助人們了解他們與誰做生意，該部門在最近的 ARR 數字方面取得了非常好的成績，我們認為，未來也將繼續如此。

So you should see higher growth in the Decision Solutions segment, maybe high single-digit growth in these core franchises have been around for a long time, a high growth in Decision Solutions driven by a lot of innovation and a lot of work to make our customers' jobs easier, leveraging our data, our analytics and our software together to solve problems and to help them do their jobs.

因此，您應該會看到決策解決方案部門實現更高的成長，也許這些核心特許經營權的高個位數成長已經存在很長時間了，決策解決方案的高成長是由大量創新和大量工作推動的，旨在使客戶的工作更輕鬆，利用我們的數據、我們的分析和我們的軟體來解決問題並幫助他們完成工作。

So I think you'll see a differentiation in that way.

所以我認為你會看到這方面的差異。

Peter Christiansen, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Peter Christiansen。

Really nice execution here.

這裡的執行真的很棒。

I want to get back on the M&A -- MA side.

我想回到併購（MA）方面。

You've had some really good speed to market on some new price, some enhancements.

您已經以非常快的速度將一些新價格和增強功能推向了市場。

I was just talking -- I'd like to hear any color on your ability to to pass on value-based pricing across a number of good products and segments, subsegments there.

我剛才在說—我想聽聽您是否有能力將基於價值的定價傳導至多個優質產品和細分市場及子細分市場。

And then lastly, just curious how you're thinking about head count for MIS and growth there potentially.

最後，我很好奇您如何看待 MIS 的員工數量以及潛在的成長。

Maybe I'll start with questions about MA.

也許我應該從有關 MA 的問題開始。

Welcome to the call there.

歡迎致電。

Nice to have you on board, by the way. based philosophy is, I think, one that we have long talked about and long maintained, we think is really important to the process.

順便說一句，很高興您能加入我們。我認為，基礎哲學是我們長期討論和堅持的哲學，我們認為它對這個過程確實非常重要。

Inflation is not as important as the value we create for customers, for example.

例如，通貨膨脹並不像我們為客戶創造的價值那麼重要。

In MA, we actually provide some statistics.

在 MA，我們實際上提供了一些統計數據。

I'm sure Shivani will have this in our investor deck, where we dimensioned the contributions that come from upgrades and price.

我相信 Shivani 會將此納入我們的投資者平台，我們在其中評估了升級和價格帶來的貢獻。

And you'll see those are contributions that are very stable and continue over the course of the last couple of years.

您會發現這些貢獻非常穩定，並且在過去幾年中持續。

And we expect it to continue in the future.

我們預計這種情況在未來還會持續下去。

I think that number is around 7% in 2024, just to give you a benchmark.

我認為到 2024 年這個數字將會達到 7% 左右，這只是一個基準。

So the contributions from pricing that are stable, and we expect them to continue going forward.

因此，定價貢獻是穩定的，我們預計它們將繼續存在。

Noemie, do you want to talk about the staffing question?

諾米，你想談談人員配備問題嗎？

Yes, of course.

是的當然。

For MIS, I think we've talked about earlier, that actually drove our part of our performance in the fourth quarter and the full year.

對於 MIS，我想我們之前已經談過了，這實際上推動了我們第四季度和全年的業績。

We're invested significantly in automation and rating workflow to make our analysts more efficient.

我們在自動化和評級工作流程方面投入了大量資金，以提高我們的分析師的效率。

And we expect us to -- you can expect us to continue to do that.

並且我們希望——您可以期待我們繼續這樣做。

Obviously, continue to invest in our skill set.

顯然，我們要繼續投資我們的技能。

We have the best Elisan we'll continue to invest and grow, but probably less than the pace of revenue growth than the investments we've made in automation.

我們擁有最好的 Elisan，我們將繼續投資和發展，但收入成長速度可能低於我們在自動化方面所做的投資。

Yes.

是的。

The one other thing I'd add, double-clicking on Steve's point about the value prop, it's really interesting because you have so many customers who are focusing on efficiency and digitization and automation and all of these things.

我想補充的另一件事是，雙擊史蒂夫關於價值主張的觀點，這真的很有趣，因為你有這麼多客戶專注於效率、數位化、自動化和所有這些東西。

And I think we've talked a little bit about the example of what's going on with our CreditView offering with Research Assistant, where the value prop itself is changing.

我想我們已經討論過我們與研究助理合作提供的 CreditView 的範例，其中價值主張本身正在改變。

So CreditView with GenAI enablement is a research subscription product.

因此，支援 GenAI 的 CreditView 是一款研究訂閱產品。

And CreditView with GenAI enablement, Research Assistant, custom AI workflows, those kinds of things is actually something where people can start to say, "How do I change the the leverage model for labor in my -- whether it's my investment team or my research team," or whatever it may be.

而且，具有 GenAI 支援、研究助理、自訂 AI 工作流程的 CreditView 等等實際上可以讓人們開始說“我如何改變我的勞動力槓桿模型——無論是我的投資團隊還是我的研究團隊”，或者其他什麼。

That's a very different conversation and a very different value proposition.

這是一次非常不同的對話和非常不同的價值主張。

Now the cycle time to have those conversations is different, but that's a pretty exciting evolution of that particular product.

現在進行這些對話的周期時間有所不同，但這是該特定產品的一個相當令人興奮的演變。

Craig Huber, Huber Research.

克雷格·胡貝爾（Craig Huber），胡貝爾研究公司（Huber Research）。

Rob or Mike, can you just talk further about private credit?

Rob 或 Mike，你們能進一步談談私人信貸嗎？

I'm curious what -- if you're willing to give this, what percent of your Ratings revenue came from private credit last year?

我很好奇——如果您願意的話，去年您的評級收入中有多少百分比來自私人信貸？

And how do you see the market growing here to add your Ratings growth rates for the coming years here?

您如何看待這裡的市場成長，從而增加未來幾年的評級成長率？

And then Noemie, if you could just throw in there, what was the incentive comp number in the fourth quarter and for the full year?

然後 Noemie，如果您可以補充一下，第四季度和全年的激勵補償數字是多少？

And how did that change year-over-year?

與去年同期相比，有何變化？

Craig, yes, let me give you -- so we don't break out exactly like you're asking, but we can give you some data points to give you an insight -- give you some insight into the traction that private credit is getting within the franchise.

克雷格，是的，讓我給你——我們不會完全按照你要求的那樣展開，但我們可以給你一些數據點，讓你深入了解——讓你深入了解私人信貸在特許經營中獲得的吸引力。

So I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we had nearly 400 private credit mandates across all of Ratings.

因此我在準備好的發言中提到，我們在整個評級中擁有近 400 個私人信貸授權。

Now that includes things like Ratings on BDCs, sublines, closed-end funds, the suite of fund finance, but also asset-backed finance and middle-market CLOs, private ratings for investors.

現在，這包括對 BDC、子線、封閉式基金、基金融資套件的評級，以及資產支持融資和中間市場 CLO、投資者的私人評級。

So -- and that has grown very significantly in the course of 1 year.

所以 — — 而且這數字在一年的時間內成長非常顯著。

And also just to give you a sense because fund finance is certainly a growing area, and I think it's going to continue to grow for a number of years.

這也只是為了讓您了解，因為基金金融無疑是一個不斷增長的領域，我認為它將在未來幾年繼續增長。

And fund finance is in our FIG.

並且基金融資在我們的圖中。

We address that through our FIG rating franchise.

我們透過 FIG 評級特許經營來解決這個問題。

In 2024, 30% of our first-time mandates in FIG were private credit-related.

2024 年，我們在 FIG 的首次授權中有 30% 與私人信貸相關。

So again, this goes back to the -- when you look at it in the total base, it's still modest.

所以，這又回到了——當你從總體基數來看時，它仍然是適度的。

But when you look at it as a percent of growth, you can see that this is starting to make a difference.

但當你將其視為成長百分比時，你會發現它開始產生影響。

Mike, do you have anything you want to add just in terms of how we're addressing private credit?

麥克，關於我們如何處理私人信貸問題，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for your question, Craig.

謝謝你的提問，克雷格。

I mean, as Rob said, we definitely see private credit as a tailwind.

我的意思是，正如羅布所說，我們確實將私人信貸視為順風。

It's a rapidly evolving space across all those asset classes.

這是一個涵蓋所有資產類別的快速發展的領域。

And it's very important when you think about the originator, the transparency around the credit quality.

當你考慮發起人時，信用品質的透明度非常重要。

They're looking to move on to the buyer.

他們正在尋找買家。

And then many of the buyers, again, want to know the credit quality and an independent view of that credit quality because many of these buyers are sensitive with regard to regulation and their own capital allocation.

然後，許多買家再次希望了解信用品質和對信用品質的獨立看法，因為許多買家對監管和自己的資本配置很敏感。

So again, there's many trends that support why independent opinion is very important in a growing asset class.

所以，有很多趨勢可以證明為什麼獨立意見對於不斷成長的資產類別非常重要。

And the way that we've organized ourselves is because it's across all of these different franchises that the various highest level, we have to organize around leadership so we can engage with all these players that may be touching in these different franchises.

我們組織自己的方式是因為在所有這些不同的特許經營中，各個最高層級都必須圍繞領導層進行組織，這樣我們才能與可能參與這些不同特許經營的所有玩家接觸。

And therefore, we have dedicated commercial people, dedicated analytical teams, but the very good thing is that we have depth and we have experience in each of our lines of business and the appropriate methodologies.

因此，我們有專門的商業人員和專門的分析團隊，但非常好的一點是，我們擁有深度，並且在每條業務線上都有經驗，並且擁有適當的方法。

So as they start to develop as individual areas of asset class, we are able and available to discuss at a very early stage, and that's what's very important when you have an evolving market like this.

因此，當它們開始發展為資產類別的獨立領域時，我們能夠並且願意在非常早期的階段進行討論，而這對於像這樣不斷發展的市場來說非常重要。

So I feel very good about going into '25 and over the medium term.

因此，我對進入25年以及中期前景感到非常滿意。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

The medium-term growth guidance, obviously really good.

中期增長指引顯然非常好。

But as Rob said, a lot's updating for performance already achieved.

但正如 Rob 所說，為了實現效能，已經進行了許多更新。

I think mathematically, it implies lower growth in '26 and '27 relative to what I'd consider your longer-term structural growth, especially in MIS.

我認為從數學上講，這意味著'26 年和'27 年的增長相對於我認為的長期結構性增長（尤其是在 MIS 領域）會較低。

Are there any specific call-outs there or should we just not read too much into that?

那裡有什麼具體的呼籲嗎，或者我們不應該對此進行過多的解讀？

I think Rob said there's kind of blue-sky assumptions for issuance in '25, but '25 MIS doesn't look overly inflated by any means relative to the long-term trend, and Mike sounded positive on structural growth.

我認為 Rob 所說的對於 25 年的發行有一種不切實際的假設，但相對於長期趨勢而言，25 年的 MIS 看起來並沒有過度膨脹，而 Mike 對結構性增長持樂觀態度。

So if you could just help us reconcile what's implied for '26-'27.

因此，如果您能幫助我們調和‘26-’27 的含義的話。

Maybe the fundamental takeaway for me is we're not downgrading our growth assumption for Ratings.

對我來說，根本的一點可能是我們不會下調評級的成長假設。

And hopefully, what you're hearing is some real confidence about the medium-term drivers of issuance.

希望您聽到的是有關中期發行驅動因素的真正信心。

So that may be the math.

這可能就是數學。

Remember, we've got ranges and other things in here that we're expressing it in ranges.

請記住，這裡有範圍和其他東西，我們用範圍來表達。

But I don't want you to take away that we think somehow the growth outlook has been dampened for the Ratings business.

但我不想讓你忽視這樣一個事實：我們認為評級業務的成長前景已經受到了抑制。

Yes.

是的。

One other thing I would add is if you look at the overall picture is really reflecting the MA growth rates that we've observed across our different businesses, as Steve talked about the nuances between mature franchises in decision and -- Data & Information, Research & Insights and the faster-growing businesses in Decision Solutions.

我想補充的另一件事是，如果你看整體情況，它實際上反映了我們在不同業務中觀察到的 MA 增長率，正如史蒂夫談到決策中成熟特許經營權之間的細微差別——數據與信息、研究與洞察和決策解決方案中增長更快的業務。

So that's one element.

這是一個元素。

And the other piece that I really want to point out is we are focusing on increased profitability, especially in MA.

我真正想指出的另一點是，我們專注於提高盈利能力，尤其是在 MA。

And that's something that's driving increased profitability going forward, and that's what's behind partially the increase in the adjusted diluted EPS range.

這是推動未來獲利能力提高的因素，也是調整後稀釋每股盈餘範圍增加的部分原因。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

I just wanted to talk about the contribution of M&A in the quarter for both MA and MIS.

我只想談談本季併購對 MA 和 MIS 的貢獻。

And also going forward, is the Cape acquisition in the guide?

另外，展望未來，Cape 的收購是否在指南中？

I'm not sure if that closed.

我不確定它是否已經關閉。

Yes.

是的。

So it was really small for the fiscal 2024, Andrew, maybe 25 bps of revenue growth for MA.

因此，安德魯，對於 2024 財年來說，這個數字真的很小，MA 的營收成長可能只有 25 個基點。

And then for the full year 2025, what's embedded in our guide?

那麼對於 2025 年全年，我們的指南中包含了什麼呢？

You have a little bit of tailwind from M&A, but you also have some FX headwinds.

您從併購中獲得了些許順風，但您也面臨一些外匯逆風。

So net-net, the net of 2 is really not material to our first quarter 2025 guidance.

因此，淨值，即 2 的淨值對於我們 2025 年第一季的指引來說實際上並不重要。

And Cape is in there.

而 Cape 就在那裡。

Cape is in it, yes.

是的，Cape 就在裡面。

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

羅素‧奎爾奇 (Russell Quelch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

In respect of ARR growth, with -- in KYC, sorry, there had been some expectations that, that would mature after the booms post the pandemic and the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.

關於 ARR 成長，在 KYC 中，很抱歉，人們曾預期，在疫情和烏克蘭與加薩衝突後的繁榮時期，ARR 成長將會成熟。

Can you talk about what's driving a re-acceleration of growth in that area?

您能談談推動該地區重新加速成長的因素是什麼嗎？

And how sustainable it is in the high teens range?

在十幾歲的高成長範圍內，它的可持續性如何？

And then separately, MSCI said on its conference call, it was having further conversations with you about expanding your partnership, which is currently in ESG, into perhaps other areas, including private credit.

另外，MSCI 在電話會議上表示，正在與您進一步討論將你們的合作關係（目前的領域是 ESG）拓展到其他領域，包括私人信貸。

Can you provide an update perhaps on that from your perspective?

您能否從您的角度提供有關該問題的最新進展？

The KYC?

KYC？

Yes.

是的。

So we are believers that we have a better mousetrap when it comes to KYC and third-party risk management and whether you're talking about knowing who you're doing business with as a customer or a supplier.

因此，我們相信，在 KYC 和第三方風險管理方面，以及無論您是在談論了解您作為客戶還是供應商與誰做生意時，我們都有更好的捕鼠器。

And we've made investments across the board really in terms of data, in terms of models that would help you make decisions on whether or not you should do business with this customer as well as software to organize and coordinate your thoughts and remember what you -- why you decided to work with that customer.

我們在數據、模型方面進行了全面投資，這些模型可以幫助您決定是否應該與該客戶做生意，同時我們還開發了軟體來組織和協調您的想法，並記住您決定與該客戶合作的原因。

So we're releasing those features and those products literally all the time.

因此我們一直在發布這些功能和產品。

Those investments, we think, are going to be very worthwhile and they contribute to this growth rate.

我們認為這些投資將非常有價值並且它們對這一增長率有所貢獻。

So this has been a good grower for us, and we expect it to continue.

所以這對我們來說是一個很好的成長點，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

And I would say the other thing I'd note here is that we are increasingly helping people with the labor associated with doing this work, so not just the databases, but helping and -- maybe coordinating and helping make things more efficient in that respect.

我想說的另一件事是，我們正在越來越多地幫助人們完成與這項工作相關的勞動，不僅僅是資料庫，還包括幫助——也許協調並幫助提高這方面的效率。

But once they identify someone they want to investigate and learn more about, we're helping to do that much more quickly.

但一旦他們確定了想要調查並了解更多資訊的人，我們就會幫助他們更快地完成這項工作。

So the number of people required to do this work can go down when they become a customer of ours.

因此，當他們成為我們的客戶時，需要完成這項工作的人數就會減少。

And to be clear, it's not by us providing bodies to do that.

需要明確的是，這並不是我們提供機構來做的。

It's providing software, data and analytics and AI enablement.

它提供軟體、數據、分析和人工智慧支援。

Just a couple of things I'd add to what Steve said.

我只想對史蒂夫所說的內容補充幾點。

We had some nice growth in the quarter.

我們本季取得了良好的成長。

We had some very large expansions of our relationships with several of the largest banks in the world.

我們與世界上幾家最大的銀行的關係得到了極大的擴展。

And I think that really is validation of the value of the Orbis data set and the other analytics that go along with it.

我認為這確實驗證了 Orbis 資料集以及與之相關的其他分析的價值。

The other thing is, and we talked about this on last year's call, that we were developing a platform to address a variety of use cases for corporates, all drawing on this massive company data and then other data sets to support things like customer onboarding and monitoring supplier risk and so on.

另一件事是，我們在去年的電話會議上談到了這一點，我們正在開發一個平台來解決企業的各種用例，所有這些用例都利用大量的公司數據和其他數據集來支援客戶入職、監控供應商風險等工作。

Well, we've now launched that.

嗯，我們現在已經開始了。

And so we're excited about that because we think that's going to give us a good entree into the large corporate market and provide support for the growth in our KYC segment.

因此，我們對此感到興奮，因為我們認為這將為我們進入大型企業市場提供良好的機會，並為我們 KYC 部門的成長提供支援。

Before we go to the next question, I just want to go back to Craig's question on incentive comp.

在我們進入下一個問題之前，我想回到 Craig 關於激勵補償的問題。

I realize we have that.

我意識到我們有這個。

So on the -- for 2024, incentives comp was $507 million, Craig, with $133 million in Q4.

因此，到 2024 年，激勵補償為 5.07 億美元，Craig，第四季為 1.33 億美元。

And we're projecting around $420 million to $440 million for 2025.

我們預計 2025 年的營收將達到 4.2 億至 4.4 億美元左右。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

羅森鮑姆（Shlomo Rosenbaum），Stifel。

So Rob, it seems like some of the early slowness that we saw in adoption in Research Assistant has to round, and it looks like things are really starting to pick up well there.

所以 Rob，看起來我們在研究助理採用過程中看到的一些早期緩慢現象必須得到解決，而且看起來事情真的開始好轉了。

I was wondering if you can update us on some of the other capabilities that you added, like the automated credit memo, the early warning system.

我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您添加的其他一些功能，例如自動信用備忘錄和預警系統。

What are you seeing over there in terms of traction?

就牽引力而言，您看到了什麼？

And do you expect a similar type of adoption path is what you're seeing for Research Assistant?

您是否預期研究助理也會有類似的採用路徑？

Or do you think that those things could take a little bit longer because the customers might need to do a little bit more on their side in terms of process?

或者您認為這些事情可能會花費更長的時間，因為客戶可能需要在流程方面做更多的事情？

Yes.

是的。

Maybe a couple of things, and I'm also going to ask Steve to add on here.

可能有幾件事，我也要請史蒂夫在這裡補充。

First, we have GenAI enabled a number of our products now through the course of the year.

首先，我們今年已經在我們的多款產品中啟用了 GenAI。

I think we talked about last year, this concept of Navigators, which helps our customers use AI as an interface and get more out of our applications.

我想我們去年就討論過導航器這個概念，它可以幫助我們的客戶使用 AI 作為介面並從我們的應用程式中獲得更多收益。

So we've done that across eight primary solutions.

我們已經透過八種主要解決方案實現了這一目標。

And that is not an a la carte offering that we've sold.

這不是我們出售的單點菜餚。

That's included in the solution.

這包含在解決方案中。

But that's going to go to really helping with the overall value prop and retention and pricing opportunity for us.

但這確實有助於我們提高整體價值、留任和定價機會。

And we know that to be true because we have some really encouraging data points from Research Assistant customers where we see the customer satisfaction is considerably higher.

我們知道這是真的，因為我們從研究助理客戶那裡得到了一些非常令人鼓舞的數據點，我們發現客戶滿意度明顯更高。

We see the usage on the platform is considerably higher.

我們發現該平台的使用率相當高。

So that gives us confidence there.

這給了我們信心。

And you're right, we have launched several other what we call a la carte products.

您說得對，我們還推出了其他幾種所謂的點菜產品。

They're early days and anything that, again, is selling into the banks.

現在還處於早期階段，所有東西都賣給了銀行。

So there's lots of really good conversation, particularly about early warning.

因此有很多非常好的對話，特別是關於預警的對話。

But like Research Assistant this takes -- these sales cycles take time with the bank.

但是像研究助理一樣，這需要——這些銷售週期需要銀行花費時間。

Steve, anything you want to add to that?

史蒂夫，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

Well, number one, we have people meeting with some of your colleagues, not you, Shlomo, but some of the people on this call literally today talking about these things.

嗯，首先，我們派人與你的一些同事會面，不是你，什洛莫，而是今天參加這次電話會議的一些人討論這些事情。

I would say, the big institutions are increasingly talking about this as a transformational moment.

我想說，大型機構越來越多地將此視為一個轉型時刻。

And we're starting to hear quotes like, Steve, can you help us save 1 million hours work by leveraging your tools, right?

我們開始聽到這樣的話，史蒂夫，你能利用你的工具幫助我們節省 100 萬小時的工作時間嗎？

Is there a way for us to -- and we literally have a proposal that is literally intended to displace a knowledge-based outsourcer by using some of these more refined workflows and persona-based GenAI tools.

我們有沒有辦法——我們確實有一個提議，旨在透過使用一些更精細的工作流程和基於角色的 GenAI 工具來取代基於知識的外包商。

So the prompt engineering that we're able to do now is progressing to the level where we're able to help people literally do their job and replace some of the labor.

所以我們現在能夠進行的快速工程正在發展到能夠幫助人們完成工作並取代部分勞動力的程度。

And we're starting to see that in the pipeline, starting to see the adoption curve change in tenor from, I need to meet regulations to I'm starting to get confidence that we can, and let's see if we can develop a business case to do that.

我們開始看到這一點，開始看到採用曲線的變化，從我需要滿足法規到我開始有信心我們可以，讓我們看看我們是否可以製定一個商業案例來做到這一點。

So I think there's some pretty exciting green shoots in that respect.

所以我認為在這方面已經出現了一些非常令人興奮的進展。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑森·哈斯。

I wanted to follow up on the MIS revenue growth in 4Q.

我想追蹤第四季度的 MIS 收入成長。

It looks like -- I was looking particularly at the MIS transaction revenue growth.

看起來——我特別關注 MIS 交易收入成長。

It was up 29% in 4Q, but the issuance growth was up 42%.

第四季成長了29%，但發行量成長了42%。

So just curious what drove that delta.

所以我很好奇是什麼導致了這種差異。

It looks like it was maybe on the corporate find side, but yes, maybe you can help explain a little bit better why the revenue is weaker relative to issuance.

看起來這可能與企業發現有關，但是是的，也許您可以幫助更好地解釋為什麼收入相對於發行量較弱。

Yes.

是的。

It really relates to bank loans.

這確實與銀行貸款有關。

So there was very robust bank loan issuance.

因此銀行貸款發放非常強勁。

By our definition, we include repricings as issuance volume.

根據我們的定義，我們將重新定價納入發行量。

And so in the fourth quarter, something like 55% of bank of loan volume was repricings, and that's the highest that we've seen in any quarter for a long time.

因此，在第四季度，大約 55% 的銀行貸款量被重新定價，這是我們長期以來在任何季度看到的最高水平。

And the economics on repricings are much different for us.

對我們來說，重新定價的經濟學原理有很大不同。

So actually, if you strip out bank loan, essentially, if you just take out bank loans out of issuance and take bank loans out of transaction revenues, we would have had, by our definition, issuance of something like mid-teens percent growth.

因此實際上，如果你剔除銀行貸款，本質上，如果你只是從發行中剔除銀行貸款，從交易收入中剔除銀行貸款，那麼按照我們的定義，發行量就會達到百分之十五左右的增長率。

But we would have had, call it, 30% transaction revenue growth.

但我們的交易收入將會成長30%。

So I think that's primarily what was going on there.

所以我認為這就是那裡發生的事情。

One other thing I'd add is we do see a lot of repricing activity in January.

我想補充的另一件事是，我們確實看到一月份出現了許多重新定價活動。

So strong loan volume but repricing activities.

貸款量如此強勁，但重新定價活動卻層出不窮。

So keep that in mind.

所以請記住這一點。

And I will now turn the call back to Rob for any closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Rob，請他做最後發言。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thanks, everybody, for your time and your questions, and we look forward to talking to you in the first quarter.

好吧，謝謝大家的時間和提問，我們期待在第一季與你們交談。

Goodbye.

再見。

This concludes Moody's Corporation fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

穆迪公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。

As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage.

提醒一下，本次電話會議結束後，公司將立即在穆迪 IR 主頁的投資者資源部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。

Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website.

此外，電話會議結束後，穆迪 IR 網站上將提供重播。

Thank you.

謝謝。