穆迪 (MCO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Moody's Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded.

現在我想通知大家，本次會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

我是 Shivani Kak，投資者關係主管。

This morning, Moody's released its results for the third quarter 2024 as well as our revised outlook for select metrics for full year 2024.

今天上午，穆迪發布了 2024 年第三季業績以及我們對 2024 年全年選定指標的修訂後展望。

The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

收益新聞稿和本次電話會議的簡報均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上取得。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將提供非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。

Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliations between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US GAAP.

請參閱我們今天早上提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後的指標之間的美國公認會計原則 (US GAAP) 之間的調節情況。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release.

我請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。

Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

今天的言論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website.

根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告以及公司向 SEC 提交的其他文件中討論的風險因素，可在我們的網站和SEC 網站上找到。

These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

這些與安全港聲明一起提出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob.

我現在將把電話轉給羅布。

Thanks, Shivani.

謝謝，希瓦尼。

Good morning or good afternoon.

早安或下午好。

Thanks, everybody, for joining today's call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

I'm really looking forward to discussing our third quarter results with you.

我真的很期待與您討論我們的第三季業績。

And we again delivered some impressive results with a 23% increase in revenue and adjusted operating margin of approximately 48% and 32% growth in adjusted diluted EPS.

我們再次取得了一些令人印象深刻的業績，營收成長了 23%，調整後營業利潤率約為 48%，調整後攤薄每股收益成長 32%。

And one of the key drivers of these great results was our rating business, with a remarkable 41% increase in revenue versus the prior year period.

這些出色業績的關鍵驅動力之一是我們的評級業務，營收與去年同期相比顯著成長了 41%。

September was a particularly strong month for issuance.

九月是發行量特別強的月份。

It included a new record for weekly investment-grade activity with over $85 billion issued across 61 deals in the first week of September.

其中包括 9 月第一周 61 筆交易中發行額超過 850 億美元的每週投資等級活動的新紀錄。

Strength in first time and infrequent issuers drove transactional revenue up 70% for the quarter and that outpaced global rated issuance growth of 51%.

首次發行和不頻繁發行的實力強勁，推動本季交易收入成長 70%，超過全球額定發行成長率 51%。

And this growth, combined with ongoing cost discipline, delivered over 600 basis points in adjusted operating margin expansion compared to last year.

這種成長，加上持續的成本控制，使調整後的營業利潤率比去年增長了 600 個基點以上。

So this year has obviously been a very strong issuance environment.

所以今年顯然是一個非常強勁的發行環境。

In fact, it's likely to be the second strongest on record.

事實上，這可能是有紀錄以來第二強的。

And amidst that strength, we see both cyclical and secular tailwinds that are going to drive future growth.

在這種力量中，我們看到週期性和長期的順風車將推動未來的成長。

And that includes refunding walls, M&A and other market trends that give us confidence in the medium-term outlook for our ratings business.

其中包括退款牆、併購和其他市場趨勢，這些趨勢讓我們對評級業務的中期前景充滿信心。

In MA, we delivered 7% overall revenue growth and 9% growth for both ARR and recurring revenue, both of which exclude one-time revenue that we're intentionally deemphasizing.

在 MA 中，我們的整體收入成長了 7%，ARR 和經常性收入成長了 9%，這兩者都不包括我們有意淡化的一次性收入。

Year-to-date customer retention is at 93% and our adjusted operating margin for the quarter was in line with our expectations at 30.3%.

年初至今的客戶保留率為 93%，本季調整後的營業利益率符合我們 30.3% 的預期。

Now our Decision Solutions line of business and that is banking, insurance and KYC, that continues to lead MA with almost $1.4 billion of ARR and that's growing at 12%.

現在，我們的決策解決方案業務線，即銀行、保險和 KYC，繼續以近 14 億美元的 ARR 領先 MA，並以 12% 的速度成長。

And last month, we marked the third anniversary of our RMS acquisition.

上個月，我們慶祝了收購 RMS 三週年。

So I'm going to spend a few minutes on today's call recapping our progress and performance there.

因此，我將在今天的電話會議上花幾分鐘時間回顧我們的進展和表現。

When I finish, I'll turn it over to Noémie to provide more color on our numbers, including raises to several of our full year guidance metrics, including our outlook for adjusted diluted EPS.

完成後，我會將其交給 Noémie，為我們的數據提供更多信息，包括提高我們的幾個全年指導指標，包括我們對調整後稀釋每股收益的展望。

But before I move to MIS, I do want to take a moment to acknowledge our third consecutive number one ranking in the Chartis RiskTech100.

但在轉向 MIS 之前，我確實想花點時間承認我們連續第三次在 Chartis RiskTech100 中排名第一。

We're number one in 12 categories and that's a testament to the breadth and depth of our solutions, to the strength of our competitive positioning and to the trust that our customers place in us.

我們在 12 個類別中排名第一，這證明了我們解決方案的廣度和深度、我們的競爭定位實力以及客戶對我們的信任。

So a big shout-out to all my colleagues who contributed to this fantastic recognition.

向所有為這項殊榮做出貢獻的同事們表示衷心的感謝。

Now moving to ratings.

現在轉向評級。

As I mentioned, we feel really good about the durable drivers of MIS growth as we look into the future.

正如我所提到的，當我們展望未來時，我們對管理資訊系統成長的持久驅動力感到非常滿意。

And those are both cyclical and structural.

這些都是週期性和結構性的。

So looking at the market drivers, as you all know very well, the refunding walls are a key source of built-in growth.

因此，從市場驅動因素來看，眾所周知，退款牆是內在成長的關鍵來源。

And last week, our analytical teams published their analytical report on the non-financial corporate refi walls in both the US and EMEA.

上週，我們的分析團隊發布了關於美國和歐洲、中東和非洲非金融企業再融資牆的分析報告。

And that data shows an 11% growth in the upcoming four-year maturity walls which amount to almost $5 trillion and that represents a record high.

該數據顯示，即將到來的四年期限牆將成長 11%，金額接近 5 兆美元，創下歷史新高。

Now the majority of this growth is actually coming from spec-grade issuers, where for the first time, forward maturity walls exceeded $2 trillion and that's up 19% from our last study.

現在，這一增長的大部分實際上來自規格級發行人，其中遠期期限牆首次超過 2 兆美元，比我們上次的研究增加了 19%。

That's particularly true for the US market, where forward maturities are up 17% and spec-grade refi walls are up approximately 27% for the upcoming four years.

對於美國市場來說尤其如此，未來四年遠期期限將成長 17%，規格級再融資牆將成長約 27%。

And that bodes very well for future issuance.

這對未來的發行來說是個好兆頭。

And as I think many of you know, spec grade is obviously a positive to our revenue mix.

我想你們很多人都知道，規格等級顯然對我們的收入組合有正面作用。

Now for any of you that want to dive deeper and I'm sure there are many on this call, just check out the full reports that we've made available on our website at moodys.com or contact our IR team.

現在，對於任何想要深入了解的人，我相信有很多人參加了這次電話會議，只需查看我們在 moodys.com 網站上提供的完整報告或聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊即可。

Now another significant historical driver of ratings revenue growth is M&A.

現在，收視率營收成長的另一個重要歷史驅動力是併購。

And activity in recent years has been well below historical levels, as you can see on this chart.

正如您在此圖表中看到的那樣，近年來的活動遠低於歷史水平。

But we don't see that subdued level as sustainable given the needs for private equity sponsors to both exit as well as deploy huge amounts of capital, along with a more benign rate environment and improved macroeconomic conditions.

但考慮到私募股權發起人需要退出並部署大量資本，以及更良性的利率環境和改善的宏觀經濟狀況，我們認為這種低迷水準不會持續。

Now along with these market factors, there are also some structural trends that we believe will drive both credit supply and the need for independent third-party ratings and assessments.

現在，除了這些市場因素外，還有一些結構性趨勢，我們認為這些趨勢將推動信貸供應以及獨立第三方評級和評估的需求。

The first is Private Credit.

第一個是私人信貸。

That's been a consistent theme on our recent calls.

這是我們最近電話會議的一致主題。

And this sector is experiencing some significant growth.

這個行業正在經歷一些顯著的成長。

We expect that to continue.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

Last week, we published estimates that private credit assets under management will reach up to $3 trillion by 2028.

上週，我們發布了預計，到 2028 年，管理的私人信貸資產將達到 3 兆美元。

And as this market grows, the need for transparency, data and rigorous independent credit assessment is likely to become more important than ever.

隨著這個市場的發展，對透明度、數據和嚴格的獨立信用評估的需求可能會變得比以往任何時候都更加重要。

And as Apollo highlighted in our recent Investor Day, rating agencies have an important role to play in this ecosystem.

正如阿波羅在最近的投資者日所強調的那樣，評級機構在這個生態系統中發揮著重要作用。

I completely agree with that and we're gearing up to ensure that we meet the needs of this market.

我完全同意這一點，我們正在努力確保滿足這個市場的需求。

Now the second is Sustainable & Transition Finance.

現在第二個是永續和轉型金融。

And to put this opportunity into context, currently, countries and companies that have net zero commitments that cover something like 93% of global GDP and our analysts estimate that in order to meet these targets, global clean energy investment needs are going to rise by 2.5 times by 2030 to around $4.5 trillion annually.

結合這一機遇，目前，淨零排放承諾覆蓋全球 GDP 93% 的國家和公司，我們的分析師估計，為了實現這些目標，全球清潔能源投資需求將增長 2.5%到2030 年，每年將增加4.5 萬億美元左右。

So that means huge amounts of debt capital is -- are going to be raised.

因此，這意味著將籌集大量債務資本。

And there's going to be increasing demand to understand how these investments are translating to organizations progress on their decarbonization efforts.

人們越來越需要了解這些投資如何轉化為組織脫碳工作的進展。

So we're investing to provide the insights, the analysis and the products to meet this demand.

因此，我們正在投資提供見解、分析和產品來滿足這一需求。

Now third growth driver is Emerging & Domestic Debt Markets.

現在第三個成長動力是新興和國內債務市場。

And many of you have heard me say before that domestic debt market issuers are the cross-border issuers of tomorrow.

你們中的許多人之前都聽過我說過，國內債券市場發行人是明天的跨國發行人。

And while smaller than developed economies, emerging market countries typically average higher economic growth rates than more developed markets.

儘管新興市場國家規模小於已開發經濟體，但其平均經濟成長率通常高於較發達市場。

So we've been investing to build out our footprint and market leadership across Asia, Africa and Latin America, so that we are poised to capitalize on this growth.

因此，我們一直在投資擴大我們在亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的足跡和市場領導地位，以便我們可以做好充分利用這一成長的準備。

Finally, we're positioning our ratings business for a world of digital finance and that includes blockchain and tokenization.

最後，我們將評級業務定位於數位金融世界，其中包括區塊鏈和代幣化。

And while the issuance volumes are relatively modest at present, there are a number of public and private sector initiatives and pilots in this space and we want our ratings to play just as important a role in a digital issuance world as they do in today's analog world.

雖然目前發行量相對不大，但該領域有許多公共和私營部門的舉措和試點，我們希望我們的評級在數位發行世界中發揮與當今模擬世界一樣重要的作用。

So as I said, a number of factors that give us confidence about our growth, both in the near term and over the medium term for MIS.

正如我所說，有許多因素讓我們對管理資訊系統的近期和中期成長充滿信心。

Now as I mentioned earlier, we've just hit the third anniversary of our RMS acquisition, so I thought it made sense to take stock of our progress on today's call.

正如我之前提到的，我們剛剛迎來了 RMS 收購三週年，所以我認為在今天的電話會議上評估我們的進展是有意義的。

And some of you may remember the financial profile of RMS before we acquired it, low single-digit revenue growth, EBITDA margins in the high teens.

你們中的一些人可能還記得我們收購 RMS 之前的財務狀況，營收成長率較低，EBITDA 利潤率高達十幾歲。

And it was also early in its second cloud platform launch.

而且它也處於第二次雲端平台發布的早期階段。

And our investment thesis at the time was twofold.

我們當時的投資理念是雙重的。

First, we thought there was much more that we could do for the insurance industry as we expanded our TAM to the property and casualty sector.

首先，我們認為，當我們將 TAM 擴展到財產和意外傷害領域時，我們可以為保險業做更多的事情。

And second, we believe that RMS' really rich climate and cat modeling capabilities would be increasingly important to a wide range of finance and risk applications and also for a broader range of customers.

其次，我們相信 RMS 真正豐富的氣候和巨災建模功能對於廣泛的金融和風險應用以及更廣泛的客戶將變得越來越重要。

We also thought that Moody's represented a natural home for RMS after years of ownership by DMGT.

我們也認為，在 DMGT 擁有多年所有權後，穆迪代表了 RMS 的天然歸宿。

So three years later, how have we done?

那麼三年過去了，我們做得怎麼樣？

Well, first, RMS is now fully integrated into our Insurance Solutions business.

首先，RMS 現已完全整合到我們的保險解決方案業務中。

Its growth has improved significantly over the last three years and now is growing in line with the mid-teens ARR growth of our broader insurance business.

其成長在過去三年中顯著改善，目前的成長與我們更廣泛的保險業務中十幾歲的 ARR 成長一致。

It's also now operating at MA-like margins.

它現在的營運利潤率也與 MA 相當。

Since we acquired RMS, we've also grown the number of customers on the cloud-based intelligent risk platform fivefold to over 250.

自從收購 RMS 以來，我們基於雲端的智慧風險平台的客戶數量也增加了五倍，達到 250 多個。

And these customers are using our next generation of high-definition models, enabling them to get more granular insights, leveraging the power of cloud computing and also offering a great upsell pathway and competitive differentiator.

這些客戶正在使用我們的下一代高清模型，使他們能夠獲得更精細的見解，利用雲端運算的力量，並提供良好的追加銷售途徑和競爭優勢。

Now as part of Moody's RMS has also expanded the ways that it partners with the insurance industry.

現在，作為穆迪 RMS 的一部分，RMS 也擴大了與保險業的合作方式。

That includes last year's partnership with NASDAQ, where we're hosting third-party and in-house models on the IRP, our creation of a cyber industry steering group with the largest players in the cyber insurance market to develop tools to help this market grow and our recent collaboration with Lloyd's to build a greenhouse gas emission platform for the Lloyd's insurance market.

這包括去年與納斯達克的合作，我們在 IRP 上託管第三方和內部模型，我們與網絡保險市場最大的參與者一起創建了一個網絡行業指導小組，以開發幫助該市場增長的工具我們最近與勞合社合作，為勞合社保險市場建立溫室氣體排放平台。

And three years later, together with Moody's, RMS has solidified its blue-chip customer base with all 10 of the top 10 global reinsurance brokers, 9 of the top 10 commercial lines insurers and 28 of the top 30 global reinsurers.

三年後，RMS 與穆迪一起鞏固了其藍籌客戶群，包括全球 10 強再保險經紀人中的所有 10 家、10 強商業保險公司中的 9 家以及全球 30 強再保險公司中的 28 家。

That really is market validation of RMS as the gold standard in the industry.

這確實是 RMS 作為業界黃金標準的市場驗證。

We continue to invest to extend the solutions that we deliver for the insurance sector and beyond.

我們繼續投資以擴展我們為保險業及其他行業提供的解決方案。

And in early September, we announced the acquisition of Praedicat to expand into casualty analytics and that's an area of growing interest for insurers.

9 月初，我們宣布收購 Praedicat，以擴展到傷亡分析領域，這是保險公司越來越感興趣的領域。

And as I've talked about in past calls, we've leveraged RMS' platform, technology and engineering teams across all of Moody's Analytics and we've integrated their climate capabilities into solutions for banks and corporates.

正如我在過去的電話中談到的那樣，我們在穆迪分析的所有部門中利用了 RMS 的平台、技術和工程團隊，並將他們的氣候能力整合到了銀行和企業的解決方案中。

So we feel really good about the progress with RMS.

因此，我們對 RMS 的進展感到非常滿意。

And earlier this year, we merged RMS and our legacy life business into a broader Moody's Insurance Solutions unit.

今年早些時候，我們將 RMS 和我們的傳統人壽業務合併到更廣泛的穆迪保險解決方案部門。

So I feel even more confident about how this positions us for the future, both across the insurance industry but also with respect to our ability to serve the needs of organizations to better understand physical risks from extreme weather and a changing climate.

因此，我對這對我們未來的定位更加充滿信心，無論是在整個保險行業，還是我們滿足組織需求的能力，以便更好地了解極端天氣和氣候變遷帶來的物理風險。

With that, I'm going to hand it over to Noémie to provide more details on our numbers.

這樣，我將把它交給 Noémie，以提供有關我們數據的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Rob and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。

Q3 was a record quarter, the highest third quarter revenue performance in Moody's history, with strong growth across revenue and profitability metrics, driving 32% adjusted diluted EPS growth and a free cash flow conversion rate of over 100% of net income.

第三季是創紀錄的季度，是穆迪史上最高的第三季營收表現，營收和獲利指標均強勁成長，推動調整後攤薄每股收益成長32%，自由現金流轉換率超過淨利的100%。

We delivered $1.8 billion of revenue, a 23% increase compared to last year with Moody's ratings growing transactional revenue by 70%, well above the 51% growth in global issuance.

我們實現了 18 億美元的收入，比去年增長 23%，穆迪評級的交易收入增長了 70%，遠高於全球發行量 51% 的增長。

And that truly demonstrates the impressive strength of our ratings franchise.

這真正證明了我們的收視業務令人印象深刻的實力。

We executed very well across all sectors with the most notable contribution from corporate finance.

我們在所有領域都表現出色，其中企業融資的貢獻最為顯著。

Investment-grade transaction revenue growth of 137%, exceeded 84% growth in issuance and that was driven by sustained levels of infrequent issuer activity as well as large jumbo deals over the summer.

投資等級交易收入成長 137%，發行量成長超過 84%，這是由不頻繁的發行人活動持續水準以及夏季的大型交易推動的。

In addition, leverage finance transaction revenue grew 67%.

此外，槓桿金融交易收入成長67%。

That's approximately $80 million, supported by the favorable spread environment.

在有利的利差環境的支持下，這一數字約為 8000 萬美元。

Collectively, this drove the largest third quarter for corporate finance revenue on record.

總的來說，這推動了有史以來最大的第三季企業融資收入。

The level of infrequent issuers activity, which was the strongest in over a decade, also drove a favorable revenue mix in FIG, where transaction revenue grew 77%, well above issuance growth of 18%.

不頻繁的發行人活動水準達到十多年來最強勁的水平，也推動了FIG良好的收入組合，其中交易收入成長了77%，遠高於18%的發行成長。

Turning to Moody's Analytics.

轉向穆迪分析。

Revenue grew 7%, including 1 point of growth from FX.

營收成長 7%，其中外匯收入成長 1 個百分點。

Recurring revenue, which is now 95% of the segment revenue grew 9%, which was in line with our ARR growth.

經常性收入（目前佔該部門收入的 95%）成長了 9%，這與我們的 ARR 成長一致。

As Rob mentioned earlier, our year-to-date retention rate is 93%, illustrating the stickiness of our solution.

正如 Rob 之前提到的，我們年初至今的保留率為 93%，這說明了我們解決方案的黏性。

Consistent with recent quarters, revenue growth was driven by recurring revenue in Decision Solutions, which is over 40% of our total revenue, which, as Rob said, delivered 12% year-on-year ARR growth.

與最近幾季一致，營收成長是由決策解決方案的經常性收入推動的，該收入占我們總收入的 40% 以上，正如 Rob 所說，實現了 12% 的同比 ARR 成長。

Let me provide some color on each of the main businesses in this segment.

讓我對這一領域的每項主要業務進行一些介紹。

Banking revenue grew 3%.

銀行業收入成長3%。

What's happening here is we have the effect of two opposite dynamics.

這裡發生的事情是我們受到兩種相反動力的影響。

On the one hand, we had double-digit decline in low-margin transactional revenue and flat growth in on-prem sales year-over-year.

一方面，我們的低利潤交易收入出現了兩位數的下降，而本地銷售則是年增率持平。

On the other hand, we continue to invest in our banking platform and focus our sales efforts to drive recurring revenue growth which was 10% in Q3, aligned with ARR growth and aligned with the first half of '24.

另一方面，我們繼續投資於我們的銀行平台，並集中我們的銷售努力來推動經常性收入成長，第三季為 10%，與 ARR 成長一致，並與 24 年上半年一致。

We observed similar trends in our insurance business, where revenue grew 7%, driven by recurring revenue growth of 11%, and our insurance ARR grew 13%.

我們在保險業務中觀察到類似的趨勢，在經常性收入成長 11% 的推動下，收入成長了 7%，保險 ARR 成長了 13%。

KYC delivered 19% recurring revenue growth.

KYC 實現了 19% 的經常性收入成長。

We've continued to deliver higher levels of growth from the nonfinancial corporate and government sectors.

我們持續實現非金融企業和政府部門更高水準的成長。

And we're actively investing to scale and sustain this level of growth as we expand our capabilities to deliver integrated solutions for a number of key customer workflows, including compliance, supply chain and trade credit.

我們正在積極投資，以擴大規模並維持這種成長水平，因為我們擴大了為許多關鍵客戶工作流程（包括合規性、供應鏈和貿易信貸）提供整合解決方案的能力。

Outside of Decision Solutions, our Research & Insights and Data & Information businesses grew reported revenue by 6% and 7%, respectively, which is broadly in line with ARR growth.

除了決策解決方案之外，我們的研究與洞察以及數據與資訊業務的報告收入分別成長了 6% 和 7%，這與 ARR 成長基本一致。

Data & Information ARR growth was a bit lower this quarter at 8% as a couple of large federal government contracts, which contributed to higher growth in 2023 were renewed at a lower value this quarter.

數據和資訊 本季 ARR 成長略低，為 8%，因為幾份大型聯邦政府合約在本季度​​以較低的價值續簽，這些合約促成了 2023 年的更高成長。

Overall, it was an exceptionally strong quarter.

總體而言，這是一個異常強勁的季度。

MIS revenue performance translated into a 320 basis points improvement in the total company adjusted operating margin, a 32% growth in adjusted diluted EPS and over 100% of net income to free cash flow conversion year-to-date.

MIS 收入表現使公司調整後營業利潤總額提高了 320 個基點，調整後稀釋每股收益增長了 32%，年初至今淨收入向自由現金流的轉換率超過 100%。

MIS achieved 59.6% adjusted operating margin and that includes the adjustments to reflect the impact of increased incentive compensation accruals, while MA delivered 30.3% adjusted operating margin, a sequential improvement of 180 bps from Q2.

MIS 實現了59.6% 的調整後營業利潤率，其中包括為反映應計激勵薪酬增加的影響而進行的調整，而MA 實現了30.3% 的調整後營業利潤率，比第二季度環比提高了180 個基點。

With a record third quarter and continued strength in the market, we are updating guidance to our full year ratings revenue, underpinned by revised global issuance growth assumptions for the full year across all asset classes, as you can see on this slide.

隨著第三季創紀錄的成長和市場的持續走強，我們正在更新全年評級收入的指引，其基礎是修訂後的所有資產類別的全年全球發行成長假設，正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣。

We expect issuance will continue to be supported by opportunistic activity in the fourth quarter as issuers take advantage of lower rates, high spreads and strong investor demand.

我們預計，隨著發行人利用較低的利率、較高的利差和強勁的投資者需求，第四季度的發行活動將繼續受到機會主義活動的支持。

We also expect sustained levels of activity within first-time mandates, which we forecast will revert close to prepandemic levels.

我們也預計首次任務期間的活動水準將保持持續，預計將恢復到接近大流行前的水準。

Our revised guidance of mid-30s percentage range issuance growth for the full year, now implied a mid-single-digit decline in global issuance for the fourth quarter, which is an improvement from an expected decline in the mid-teens back in July.

我們修訂後的全年發行量成長率指引為 30 多歲左右，現在意味著第四季全球發行量將出現中個位數下降，這比 7 月預計的中雙位數下降有所改善。

Now with that backdrop, we are raising our guidance for MIS revenue growth to high 20s percentage range, which at the higher end of the range, would translate into an increase in Q4 ratings revenue expectation versus prior guidance.

現在，在這種背景下，我們將 MIS 收入成長指引提高到 20 %左右的百分比範圍，在該範圍的高端，將轉化為第四季度評級收入預期相對於先前指導的提高。

We are raising MIS adjusted operating margin to a range of 59% to 60%, up 100 basis points from prior guidance.

我們將 MIS 調整後營業利潤率提高至 59% 至 60%，比先前的指導提高 100 個基點。

The upward revision to our guidance range accounts for the adjustment to our incentive compensation, as well, what's included in the full year range is approximately 50 basis points of headwind from the settlement of a regulatory matter, which we recorded and disclosed in Q2.

我們對指導範圍的上調考慮了對激勵薪酬的調整，同時，全年範圍中還包括監管問題解決帶來的約 50 個基點的阻力，我們在第二季度記錄並披露了這一點。

For MA, we're maintaining our guidance across all metrics.

對於 MA，我們維持所有指標的指導。

Taking all this into consideration, we are now expecting Moody's revenue to grow in the high teens percentage range, expenses to increase by approximately 10% and adjusted operating margin in the range of 47% to 48%.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們目前預計穆迪的收入將在高兩位數百分比範圍內增長，支出將增加約 10%，調整後的營業利潤率將在 47% 至 48% 的範圍內。

Consistent with last year, the revised expense outlook primarily reflects increases to incentive compensation, the majority of which will be in MIS, as a result of the upward revisions to the full year ratings revenue outlook.

與去年一致，修訂後的費用前景主要反映了激勵性薪酬的增加，其中大部分將在管理資訊系統中，這是由於全年評級收入前景的上調。

We are also updating our free cash flow guidance to approximately $2.3 billion.

我們也將自由現金流指引更新為約 23 億美元。

And in addition, we are increasing and narrowing our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $11.90 to $12.10, an $0.80 increase at the midpoint and a growth of approximately 21% versus the prior year.

此外，我們還將調整後的稀釋每股收益指引範圍擴大並縮小至 11.90 美元至 12.10 美元，中點增加了 0.80 美元，與前一年相比增長約 21%。

Before we go into Q&A, I want to say I'm very proud of our team's performance this quarter.

在我們進行問答之前，我想說我對我們團隊本季的表現感到非常自豪。

And Rob and I cannot thank our colleagues enough for their hard work and dedication.

羅布和我對同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神感激不盡。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

And operator, will you please open the line for Q&A.

接線員，請打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I wanted to pick up on the Data & Information ARR slowdown from last quarter.

我想了解上季數據和資訊 ARR 的放緩情況。

I think, Noémie, you mentioned the government contracts renewing at a lower value.

我想，諾米，你提到了政府合約以較低的價格續約。

Was this a reduction in number of products that were being purchased?

這是否減少了購買的產品數量？

Or was it pricing or something else?

還是定價或其他原因？

And maybe just what percentage of revenues related to government?

也許與政府相關的收入百分比是多少？

Was this federal government?

這是聯邦政府嗎？

And are there any more renewals with government coming up?

政府還會有更多的更新嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

We -- actually, this is something we've kind of signaled in the last earnings call, where we had some large federal government contracts up for renewal in the second half of the year.

實際上，這是我們在上次財報電話會議中發出的信號，我們有一些大型聯邦政府合約將在今年下半年續約。

So what you saw here in decision -- in Data & Information, we had a lower renewal with one of our large federal government contract.

所以你在決策中看到的——在數據和資訊方面，我們的一份大型聯邦政府合約的續約率較低。

That's associated pretty much with their spending patterns.

這與他們的消費模式密切相關。

As you know, we're in election year.

如您所知，我們正處於選舉年。

So they are looking at their overall contract space and we expect to see some renewals being a little bit more challenged this year but we've accounted for those in the third quarter and we don't expect any -- or just one affecting the remainder of the year.

因此，他們正在考慮整體合約空間，我們預計今年一些續約會面臨更大的挑戰，但我們已經在第三季考慮了這些續約，我們預計不會有任何續約，或者只有一個會影響其餘合約今年的。

In addition to that, in Data & Information, the thing that affected a bit the ARR growth this quarter is the transition of some of our customers into the MSCI.

除此之外，在數據和資訊領域，對本季 ARR 成長產生一定影響的是我們的部分客戶轉入 MSCI。

And we also signaled that earlier in July when we were on this call.

我們在 7 月初參加這次電話會議時也曾表示過這一點。

Some of our customers are transitioning and sourcing their sustainability content directly from MSCI.

我們的一些客戶正在直接從 MSCI 轉換和採購永續發展內容。

So that's affected a bit the pipeline and the existing renewals of those customers as well.

因此，這也對這些客戶的管道和現有續約產生了一些影響。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

Ashish Sabadra，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Rob, thanks for flagging both the near and midterm secular and cyclical tailwinds for issuance.

羅布，感謝您指出近期和中期的長期和周期性發行順風。

But it was also the -- as you mentioned, the second strongest issuance year.

但正如您所提到的，這也是發行量第二強勁的一年。

So what we want to understand is, can these near-term issuance tailwinds help offset the headwinds from tougher comps and the pull forward as well as the revenue tailwinds from the infrequent issuers?

因此，我們想了解的是，這些近期發行順風能否有助於抵消更嚴格的比較帶來的阻力以及來自不頻繁發行人的拉動以及收入順風？

Or do we need to normalize before we can start to grow off those levels?

或者我們需要正常化才能開始擺脫這些水平？

Ashish, are we talking about 4Q?

Ashish，我們在談論 4Q 嗎？

Are you talking -- are you starting to look towards 2025?

您是在說—您開始展望 2025 年了嗎？

More 2025.

更多2025年。

All right.

好的。

So maybe what I'll do here, Ashish, is just kind of tackle early -- very early -- too early thoughts on 2025 and maybe what some of the headwinds and tailwinds might be.

因此，阿什什，也許我在這裡要做的只是儘早——非常早——太早解決 2025 年的想法，以及可能會遇到的一些逆風和順風。

And I guess -- I have to do the health warning of we're not introducing guidance for fiscal '25 yet.

我想——我必須發出健康警告，因為我們還沒有推出 25 財年的指導方針。

We'll do that on the next earnings call.

我們將在下次財報電話會議上這樣做。

So I'll just talk about kind of what we know now.

所以我只想談談我們現在所知道的一些事情。

Certainly, we don't know exactly how the year is going to finish up.

當然，我們並不確切知道這一年將如何結束。

But I would say that I think the balance of tailwinds to headwinds for issuance for next year, is probably in favor of the tailwinds.

但我想說的是，我認為明年發行的順風與逆風的平衡可能有利於順風。

So we all know that this has been a huge issuance year.

所以我們都知道，今年是發行量龐大的一年。

Yes, there has been some pull forward.

是的，已經取得了一些進展。

I imagine we'll talk about that later on the call.

我想我們稍後會在電話中討論這個問題。

This is probably -- you heard me say probably going to be the second biggest year for issuance on record.

你聽到我說，這可能是有紀錄以來發行量第二大的一年。

So it does create some tough comps for sure.

所以它確實創造了一些艱難的比較。

And how the year-end finishes up, it definitely factors into that.

年終如何結束，這絕對是個因素。

But I would say that we've got some very constructive issuance conditions, absent, of course, exogenous events that can create uncertainty and volatility but that should support issuance.

但我想說的是，我們已經有了一些非常有建設性的發行條件，當然，不存在可能造成不確定性和波動性的外生事件，但這應該會支持發行。

So let's tick through what those are.

那麼讓我們來看看這些是什麼。

First, the spec-grade default rate has actually been declining and we expect that to decline further into next year.

首先，規格級違約率實際上一直在下降，我們預計明年將進一步下降。

That means that spreads should remain tight.

這意味著利差應該保持緊張。

They are very, very tight right now.

他們現在非常非常緊張。

Spreads are near their all-time lows.

利差接近歷史最低點。

The expectation of lower interest rates and combine that with tight spreads, that's going to give a very, I think, favorable environment for new issuance and also for some refi.

我認為，利率降低的預期以及利差收窄，將為新發行和一些再融資提供非常有利的環境。

Then we've got the refunding walls that I talked about, the nearly $5 trillion over the next four years but in particular, the real strength around in growth in the spec-grade maturity walls.

然後我們就有了我談到的退款牆，未來四年將有近 5 兆美元，但特別是規格級到期牆成長的真正實力。

M&A has picked up, I would say, kind of modestly this year versus the last two years.

我想說，與過去兩年相比，今年的併購活動有所回升。

But I certainly would expect that recovery to continue into 2025.

但我當然預計這種復甦將持續到 2025 年。

I mentioned that there's just -- there's more and more of a need for both sponsors to exit but also sponsors to put a lot of dry powder to work.

我提到過，贊助商越來越需要退出，而且贊助商也越來越需要投入大量的乾粉。

And that is going to happen at some point.

這將在某個時候發生。

And then we've got some of those medium-term tailwinds.

然後我們得到了一些中期的有利因素。

And again, I'm sure I'll get asked about private credit and transition finance.

我確信我會再次被問到有關私人信貸和轉型融資的問題。

Both of those are going to be, I think, catalysts for demand for ratings and credit assessment but also for issuance of debt as we transition to a cleaner energy economy.

我認為，隨著我們向清潔能源經濟轉型，這兩者都將成為評級和信用評估需求的催化劑，也將成為債務發行的催化劑。

Now thinking about the headwinds for a moment, I would say the market is still very data dependent.

現在考慮一下不利因素，我想說市場仍然非常依賴數據。

So you've got macroeconomic factors, whether it's jobs or inflation or growth that could signal either a harder landing or softer landing or higher for longer.

因此，宏觀經濟因素，無論是就業、通膨或成長，都可能預示著硬著陸、軟著陸或長期更高的著陸。

That could impact issuance and we've seen a little bit of that throughout the year.

這可能會影響發行，我們全年都看到了一些這種情況。

It's -- we've got an election coming up in a few weeks and we'll see what that means for the antitrust environment and whether that is favorable and not favorable for M&A and then, of course, geopolitical events.

幾週後我們將舉行選舉，我們將看看這對反壟斷環境意味著什麼，以及這是否有利於併購，當然還有地緣政治事件。

We basically got two wars going on around the world.

我們基本上在世界各地發生了兩場戰爭。

I think a third event would be -- the global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far but I think that could really be tested if there was something -- another shoe to drop.

我認為第三個事件是——迄今為止，全球經濟的彈性令人驚訝，但我認為，如果有什麼事情——另一隻鞋要掉下來，這真的可以受到考驗。

And when I talk to companies, they all say that geopolitical events are kind of at the top of their risk register.

當我與公司交談時，他們都說地緣政治事件是他們風險登記冊中的首要因素。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense.

希望這能給你一種感覺。

But like I said, on balance, I think, modestly skewed to the positive from where we sit right now in terms of issuance for the year.

但正如我所說，總的來說，我認為，就今年的發行量而言，我們目前的情況稍微偏向正面的方向。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

史考特‧沃策爾，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to stick on the topic of the issuance here.

我想在這裡繼續討論發行的話題。

And Rob, maybe wondering if you can share just where we are with debt velocity right now?

羅布，也許想知道您是否可以分享一下我們現在的債務週轉速度？

Obviously, I know it's a strong quarter for issuance but just on the balance of things, where we are with debt velocity and how you're thinking about that.

顯然，我知道這是一個強勁的發行季度，但只是在平衡方面，我們的債務速度以及您對此的看法。

Yes.

是的。

So obviously, debt velocity has generally been improving just given the strength of the issuance environment.

顯然，鑑於發行環境的強勁，債務流通速度總體上一直在改善。

And -- so it's interesting, if you actually go back and look at -- kind of take a historical look at issuance.

而且——所以這很有趣，如果你真的回顧一下——對發行進行歷史性的審視。

So this year, we're going to be probably just under $6 trillion.

因此，今年我們的支出可能略低於 6 兆美元。

And if you go back to, say, 2012 -- and I know a CAGR is not a perfect thing to do in this situation.

如果你回到 2012 年，我知道複合年增長率在這種情況下並不是一個完美的事情。

But you'd have a CAGR of something like 3.5% in terms of the growth of issuance from 2012.

但從 2012 年開始的發行量成長來看，複合年增長率約為 3.5%。

I understand it's not linear but growing a little bit more than GDP growth.

我知道它不是線性的，但成長比 GDP 成長稍快。

But if you look at the stock, the total stock of nonfinancial corporate debt outstanding, that's grown by something more like 7% over that period of time.

但如果你看一下股票，也就是未償非金融公司債務的總存量，你會發現這段時間內成長了 7% 左右。

So it's interesting.

所以這很有趣。

The debt -- that means, therefore, that debt velocity has been below kind of the historical averages just because there's so much more debt outstanding.

因此，債務——這意味著債務週轉率低於歷史平均水平，只是因為未償債務多得多。

And so we've gotten close to that, closer to that historical average, we look at that as about 14%.

所以我們已經接近這個數字，更接近歷史平均水平，我們認為這個數字約為 14%。

We look at nonfinancial corporate debt.

我們關注非金融企業債務。

Other people look at it different ways.

其他人以不同的方式看待它。

We're still underneath that probably something like 12% for fiscal '24.

我們仍低於 24 財年的 12% 左右。

But I think that indicates just where we are with debt velocity, still below historical averages.

但我認為這表明我們的債務速度仍低於歷史平均水平。

To me actually indicates that, that's actually a tailwind when you think about the potential for issuance growth in the future.

對我來說，這實際上表明，當你考慮未來發行成長的潛力時，這實際上是一種順風。

Great.

偉大的。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I wanted to ask a question on Research & Insights.

我想問一個有關研究與見解的問題。

I think last quarter, you talked about your expectation that ARR growth would accelerate in the back half of the year.

我想上個季度，您談到了您對 ARR 成長將在下半年加速的預期。

I think you cited the Research Assistant tool and some of the release of some private credit-oriented products supporting that.

我認為您引用了研究助理工具以及一些支持該工具的一些私人信貸導向產品的發布。

It doesn't look like we saw that in the third quarter.

我們在第三季度似乎沒有看到這一點。

Just wondering if there's anything else to unpack in that line particularly and maybe that's an excuse to ask about the broader monetization of the GenAI related tools so far this year.

只是想知道在這一行中是否還有其他需要特別說明的內容，也許這是詢問今年迄今為止 GenAI 相關工具更廣泛貨幣化的藉口。

Yes, I'm happy to take that.

是的，我很樂意接受。

So Research & Insights for the third quarter grew 6% ARR, which is aligned with the first half.

因此，Research & Insights 第三季的 ARR 成長了 6%，與上半年一致。

It's also a little lower than the 9% we saw prior to the attrition events that we've talked about in the previous calls.

這也略低於我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的人員流失事件之前看到的 9%。

So there continues to be a bit of pressure induced by the stress in the broader banking sector.

因此，更廣泛的銀行業壓力仍然會帶來一些壓力。

But as you said, we're investing in Research Assistant.

但正如你所說，我們正在投資研究助理。

We have a strong pipeline in Research Assistant as we are entering the largest quarter of the year.

隨著我們進入一年中最大的季度，我們在研究助理方面擁有強大的人才儲備。

We also have very interesting usage stats and customer satisfaction scores for our Research Assistant that are very encouraging, actually the satisfaction, the NPS score for CreditView users who are using Research Assistant is significantly higher than the CreditView users who aren't using it.

我們的研究助理還有非常有趣的使用統計數據和客戶滿意度評分，這些數據非常令人鼓舞，實際上使用研究助理的 CreditView 用戶的滿意度、NPS 評分明顯高於未使用它的 CreditView 用戶。

So I think that's a very strong driver for pipeline growth.

所以我認為這是管道成長的一個非常強大的驅動力。

We continue to see a little bit longer than sales cycle that we had expected entering the year with -- we have very rapid adoption with the early adopters and those smaller asset management players.

我們繼續看到，進入今年的銷售週期比我們預期的要長一些——我們很快就被早期採用者和那些規模較小的資產管理公司所採用。

But when it comes to large financial institutions, the adoption of GenAI capabilities has maybe been a little slower than we had expected at the beginning of the year, simply because they're going through their own GenAI utilization framework and governance.

但對於大型金融機構來說，GenAI 功能的採用可能比我們年初的預期要慢一些，只是因為他們正在經歷自己的 GenAI 使用框架和治理。

So to your point, there's a lot of pipeline and we're working very hard to close that in the fourth quarter.

因此，就您而言，有很多管道，我們正在非常努力地在第四季度關閉它。

And I think on the overall MA and ARR outlook for the full year, we also have some interesting pipeline growth in KYC, which we expect would contribute to continued growth in the fourth quarter and beyond.

我認為，就全年的整體 MA 和 ARR 前景而言，我們在 KYC 方面也有一些有趣的成長，我們預計這將有助於第四季及以後的持續成長。

And Noémie, I think we had expected some acceleration in the second half of the year.

諾米，我認為我們預計下半年會出現一些加速。

I think we still expect to continue to see some modest acceleration, but we'll probably see ARR in the lower end of high single-digit growth rather than our previous expectation of -- at the higher end of high single-digit growth for the fourth quarter just based on some of the things that Noémie just talked about.

我認為我們仍然預計會繼續看到一些溫和的加速，但我們可能會看到 ARR 處於高個位數增長的低端，而不是我們之前的預期 - 處於高個位數增長的高端。只是基於諾米剛才談到的一些事情。

And Rob is that Research & Insights or MA as a whole, just to be clear?

澄清一下，Rob 是指「研究與見解」還是「文學碩士」？

Well, I was specifically referring to Research & Insights in that case.

嗯，在這種情況下我特意指的是研究與見解。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just to stick on MA.

只是為了堅持MA。

The revenue versus ARR growth keeps widening.

營收與 ARR 的成長持續擴大。

So I was just hoping you could just help level set why that is today and then thinking about how that flows into 2025 would be helpful as well.

所以我只是希望你能幫忙確定為什麼會出現今天的情況，然後思考它如何延續到 2025 年也會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

So on the revenue, Manav, we have -- we're focused on recurring revenue.

所以在收入方面，馬納夫，我們專注於經常性收入。

If you look at recurring revenue for Decision Solutions, Research & Insights and Data & Information, it's very close, moving closely to the ARR growth.

如果您查看決策解決方案、研究與洞察以及數據與資訊的經常性收入，您會發現它非常接近，與 ARR 成長非常接近。

So let me unpack a little bit the revenue growth dynamic for Q3 and the different components of it.

因此，讓我稍微解釋一下第三季的營收成長動態及其不同組成部分。

Revenue grew 7% on a reported basis in Q3.

據報告，第三季營收成長了 7%。

Recurring revenue, which is 95% of the total revenue in the quarter grew 9%, which is very much in line with the pace of ARR.

佔總營收95%的經常性營收在本季成長了9%，這與ARR的步伐非常一致。

What's going on there is, you have our training and other services revenue that's declining -- that are declining double digit.

實際情況是，我們的培訓和其他服務收入正在下降——下降幅度達到兩位數。

And our revenue for multiyear on-prem software remains stable but fluctuates throughout the year based on timing of renewals.

我們的多年本地軟體收入保持穩定，但全年會根據續約時間而波動。

So there's a couple of dynamics that I want to call out that are behind the 9% growth in recurring revenue that should help tie that back to the ARR growth and the longer-term profile of the business.

因此，我想指出經常性收入成長 9% 背後的一些動力，這應該有助於將其與 ARR 成長和業務的長期狀況聯繫起來。

If you look at banking, recurring revenue, banking and insurance, the KYC work flows, what we call Decision Solutions grew 13% in the third quarter.

如果你看看銀行業、經常性收入、銀行業和保險業、KYC 工作流程，我們所謂的決策解決方案在第三季成長了 13%。

And that's pretty much in line with what we saw in the first half of the year.

這與我們今年上半年看到的情況非常一致。

There's 19% growth in our KYC solution and banking and insurance grew about 10% and 11% recurring, which is again very much in line with ARR.

我們的 KYC 解決方案成長了 19%，銀行和保險的經常性成長約為 10% 和 11%，這再次與 ARR 非常一致。

On the Research & Insights, again, we saw -- that's about 30% of our business.

在研究與洞察方面，我們再次看到——這約占我們業務的 30%。

We saw recurring revenue growth of 6% in the third quarter.

我們看到第三季的經常性收入成長了 6%。

That's actually improved slightly from the 4% we saw in the first half.

這實際上比我們上半年看到的 4% 略有改善。

We've talked about some of the attrition events and some of the pressure in -- with research -- with the asset managers and banks previously.

我們之前已經透過研究與資產管理公司和銀行討論了一些人員流失事件和一些壓力。

So that's been a bit of a headwind to growth in this business in this year.

因此，這對該業務今年的成長構成了一定的阻力。

But the -- again, the recurring revenue growth is very much aligned with ARR.

但再次強調，經常性收入成長與 ARR 非常一致。

And on Data & Information revenue, we grew 7% in the third quarter.

在數據和資訊收入方面，我們第三季成長了 7%。

I talked about the effects of some of the large renewals with our government -- federal government contracts that's now behind us.

我談到了與我們政府——聯邦政府合約的一些重大更新的影響，這些合約現在已經成為過去。

And we have very significant prospects in the pipeline that should get that growth rate a little bit higher up in the upcoming quarters.

我們正在醞釀非常重大的前景，在接下來的幾個季度中，成長率應該會有所提高。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of the revenue growth dynamics in the third quarter.

希望這能讓您了解第三季的營收成長動態。

It's again very much broadly in line with the first half, except for Decision Solutions, where we had a bit of a tough comp and the large renewals of the government contract that renewed at a lower rate this year.

這與上半年基本一致，但決策解決方案除外，我們的競爭有點艱難，而且今年政府合約的續約率較低。

Yes.

是的。

And Noémie, maybe -- I mean you touched on it, just there's the transactional onetime revenue and the recurring revenue.

諾米，也許——我的意思是你提到過，只是交易性的一次性收入和經常性收入。

And actually, for fiscal '23, actually, that onetime revenue actually grew.

事實上，在 23 財年，曾經的收入實際上有所成長。

And this year, obviously, we're seeing a decline.

顯然，今年我們看到了下降。

So that would contribute to, Manav, some of what you might think of as a little bit of a widening.

因此，馬納夫，這將有助於你可能認為範圍擴大了一些。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉，奧本海默。

Hi, good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions.

你好，下午好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I know we have touched on private credit in the past but the narrative of public private market convergence is expanding.

我知道我們過去曾觸及私人信貸，但公私市場融合的敘事正在擴大。

And Rob, you talked about the Apollo Investor Day.

羅布，您談到了阿波羅投資者日。

And I think one idea they threw out was so-called standardized credit ratings.

我認為他們拋棄的一個想法是所謂的標準化信用評級。

So could you please talk about how much appetite for investment-grade issuers to raise debt directly from PE firms and bypass the rating process done by Moody's, or the credit rating is so valuable that they will still need it?

那麼，您能否談談投資級發行人有多大興趣直接從私募股權公司籌集債務並繞過穆迪的評級流程，或者信用評級如此有價值以至於他們仍然需要它？

Yes.

是的。

Owen, thanks.

歐文，謝謝。

So I've had a lot of engagement with many of the most senior players in this market over the last, I don't know, call it, over the course of this year.

因此，在過去的一年裡，我不知道，稱之為，在今年的過程中，我與這個市場上的許多最資深的參與者進行了許多接觸。

And while I think maybe two years ago, we kind of talked about this defensively, there's a real opportunity here and a real need.

雖然我想也許是在兩年前，我們有點防禦性地談論過這個問題，但這裡確實有機會，也有真正的需求。

There's a real need for independent third-party credit assessment, whether it's through ratings or other tools.

確實需要獨立的第三方信用評估，無論是透過評級還是其他工具。

And it's interesting because when we engage with the big players like the Apollos and the Blackstones, one of the things that we hear, and again, I referenced, if you look at their Investor Day, they talk about credit rating agencies being an important part of the ecosystem because we have the ability to provide the data, the analytics and the ratings that will help people understand the comparability of whether it's public or private credit.

這很有趣，因為當我們與阿波羅和黑石這樣的大公司打交道時，我們聽到的一件事是，我再次提到，如果你看看他們的投資者日，他們會說信用評級機構是一個重要的組成部分因為我們有能力提供數據、分析和評級，幫助人們了解公共信用或私人信用的可比性。

And as they are looking at the growth of that market and if you start to think about private credit, not just as leveraged direct lending but you start to think about, Owen, you mentioned investment grade, in many cases, asset-backed finance, the numbers are much bigger than the $3 trillion that I talked about.

當他們關注這個市場的成長時，如果你開始考慮私人信貸，而不僅僅是槓桿直接貸款，而是你開始考慮，歐文，你提到了投資級別，在很多情況下，資產支持融資，這個數字比我談到的3 兆美元要大得多。

But there is going to be I believe, a need for ratings and third-party credit assessment.

但我相信，將會需要評級和第三方信用評估。

And so we have a great dialogue actually with many of the largest players in the market about ways that we can serve those needs.

因此，我們實際上與市場上許多最大的參與者就我們如何滿足這些需求進行了良好的對話。

So for instance, Owen, we've got -- we've got real -- a lot of growth in our ratings of BDCs and credit estimates for the exposures in the BDCs.

例如，歐文，我們的 BDC 評級和 BDC 風險敞口的信用估計有了很大的增長。

I think we probably have the leading coverage of BDCs in the market that's contributing to the growth in our FIG franchise.

我認為我們可能擁有市場上領先的 BDC 覆蓋範圍，這有助於我們的Fig 特許經營權的成長。

We've got a growing pipeline of fund finance ratings, whether it's feeder funds, credit-linked notes, sub lines, all of that.

我們擁有越來越多的基金財務評級管道，無論是支線基金、信用掛鉤票據、子額度等等。

There's a lot of demand for that and a lot of demand for ratings.

對此有很多需求，對收視率也有很多需求。

So again, you're going to see that come through the FIG line in ratings.

再說一遍，您將看到收視率中的FIG線。

And then all the asset-backed finance because remember, Owen, where is a lot of that going to?

然後是所有資產支持融資，因為歐文，請記住，其中很多都去哪裡了？

A lot of that is going and sitting on insurance balance sheets and those insurers are rating sensitive.

其中許多都在保險資產負債表上，而這些保險公司對評級很敏感。

So as this market grows, I think ratings are going to play a really key role.

因此，隨著這個市場的成長，我認為評級將發揮非常關鍵的作用。

And I think you're going to see actually a lot of that revenue come through the ratings business.

我認為你會看到實際上很多收入來自評級業務。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of why we feel optimistic about this.

希望這能讓您了解為什麼我們對此感到樂觀。

And Owen, the last thing I would say is, look, the key for us is to make sure we understand where is the flow coming from, right?

歐文，我要說的最後一件事是，看，我們的關鍵是確保我們了解流量來自哪裡，對吧？

Do we have the methodologies in place, rigorous methodology so that we can rate this stuff?

我們是否有適當的方法論，嚴格的方法論，以便我們可以對這些東西進行評級？

Do we have the people, right, the resources to be able to do this and play that role in the market?

我們是否有人員、資源來做到這一點並在市場上發揮這種作用？

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

So I wanted to ask about Moody's Analytics again, just in context of your medium-term targets.

因此，我想再次詢問穆迪分析的情況，就你們的中期目標而言。

I know you referred to them previously as aspirational.

我知道您之前曾將它們稱為“有抱負的”。

I'm curious if you have an update on that, just given that there has been a little bit of deceleration this year.

我很好奇您是否有最新消息，因為今年的成長速度略有放緩。

Maybe if you could highlight what are some of the areas that you're most excited about?

也許您能強調一下您最感興趣的領域是什麼？

And if you expect an acceleration as we think about '25 and beyond?

如果您預計 25 年及以後會出現加速成長？

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Great question.

很好的問題。

So I think absent a real catalyst, we would update those medium-term targets annually.

因此，我認為如果沒有真正的催化劑，我們將每年更新這些中期目標。

And so I think we'd be prepared to talk about the targets in the February earnings call.

因此，我認為我們準備好在二月份的財報電話會議上討論目標。

But maybe just to give you a sense of -- we've talked about those targets serving as kind of our North Star to drive innovation, product development.

但也許只是為了讓您有一種感覺——我們已經討論過這些目標是推動創新和產品開發的北極星。

Let me maybe talk to you about where I think the big opportunities are that we're going after to be able to achieve those medium-term targets.

也許讓我和你們談談我認為為了實現這些中期目標我們正在尋求的巨大機會。

So I would say it's really around kind of a land and an expand strategy.

所以我想說，這其實是圍繞著一塊土地和擴張策略。

So if you think about -- and we've got relationships with several thousand banks, probably close to 1,000 insurers.

因此，如果你想一想，我們已經與數千家銀行建立了合作關係，可能接近 1,000 家保險公司。

We have a really good customer footprint in financial services and we have an opportunity to do more for those customers.

我們在金融服務領域擁有非常好的客戶足跡，我們有機會為這些客戶做更多的事情。

So that is really an expand strategy in financial services.

所以這確實是金融服務領域的擴張策略。

If you look at the number of products and solutions that many of the customers take, there's still a big opportunity for us to do more for them.

如果你看看許多客戶使用的產品和解決方案的數量，我們仍然有很大的機會為他們做更多的事情。

We've actually provided that -- some of that data on prior calls when we've done the spotlight on insurance and banking.

實際上，當我們專注於保險和銀行業務時，我們已經提供了先前電話中的一些數據。

And then with corporates, it's really an expand -- really a land strategy.

對企業來說，這其實是一種擴張——實際上是一種土地策略。

And so I think Noémie just touched on it briefly.

所以我認為諾米只是簡單地談到了這一點。

But we've got one of the world's largest databases on companies and that then supports a range of interconnected use cases, including things like trade credit, customer onboarding and monitoring and supplier risk.

但我們擁有世界上最大的公司資料庫之一，支援一系列相互關聯的用例，包括貿易信貸、客戶入職和監控以及供應商風險等。

And so we see a pretty big opportunity to go after that.

因此，我們看到了一個很大的機會。

And that means probably a lot more new logos in the corporate space and a lot more cross-sell and upsell in the financial services space.

這意味著企業領域可能會出現更多新標識，金融服務領域可能會出現更多交叉銷售和追加銷售。

So again, we've still got some things to do to be able to better enable the cross-sell and to be able -- we talked about earlier this year about the investments we're making in building out that platform to serve corporates but those are the things we're doing to try to get after those medium-term targets.

再說一遍，我們仍然有一些事情要做，以便能夠更好地實現交叉銷售，並且能夠——我們今年早些時候談到了我們在構建該平台以服務企業方面所做的投資，但是這些就是我們為實現這些中期目標而正在做的事情。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Rob, could you just give us an updated view on the pull forward that has taken place this year and in 3Q specifically?

Rob，您能給我們介紹一下今年特別是第三季發生的提前推進的最新觀點嗎？

And if that's lowered your expectations for issuance growth at all in 2025?

這是否會降低您對 2025 年發行成長的預期？

Yes.

是的。

First of all, welcome to the call.

首先歡迎您的來電。

It's good to have you on.

有你在真是太好了。

So it's actually interesting when you look at pull forward, it's a little bit of a tale of two cities between investment grade and spec grade.

因此，當你考慮拉動時，這實際上很有趣，這有點像是投資等級和規格等級之間的兩個城市的故事。

And if you get a chance to dig into those, refunding studies that we published, you'll see a lot of this in there.

如果您有機會深入研究我們發表的那些退款研究，您會在那裡看到很多這樣的內容。

But if you look at investment grade, so 2025 investment-grade maturities actually grown by about 9%.

但如果你看一下投資級別，那麼 2025 年投資級別的期限實際上增長了約 9%。

They're 18% higher than the one-year forward maturities were last year.

它們比去年的一年期遠期到期期限高出 18%。

So starting the year, the maturities were actually higher than they were last year.

因此，從今年開始，到期日實際上比去年更高。

But we've seen a good bit of pull forward in spec grade.

但我們已經看到規格等級有了很大的進步。

And if you think about it, that's pretty typical, right?

如果你仔細想想，這很典型，對吧？

If you're an investment-grade issuer, you generally have market access throughout market cycles.

如果您是投資等級發行人，通常可以在整個市場週期中進入市場。

Spec-grade issuers are more sensitive to risk on, risk off and market windows.

規格級發行人對風險開啟、風險規避和市場窗口更加敏感。

So you'll see more pull forward typically from spec-grade issuers who don't want to get to a quarter before their maturity.

因此，您會看到更多的提前行動，通常來自規格級發行人，他們不想在到期前達到一個季度。

I will say that when we look at the data, it does look like there has been a bit more pull forward in spec grade than would we -- what would be typical than kind of historical averages this year.

我想說的是，當我們查看數據時，看起來規格等級確實比我們預期的有所提高——這比今年的歷史平均值更典型。

That's not surprising.

這並不奇怪。

I think we had been seeing that.

我想我們已經看到了這一點。

But it's also interesting, again, if you look at just the maturities 1 year forward, right now, they're about the same level as they were this time last year.

但同樣有趣的是，如果你只看一年後的到期日，現在，它們與去年這個時候的水平大致相同。

And so the other thing I would say is if you actually go to the -- drill down into the US, so some of these refi walls are a little bit more back-end loaded, particularly around spec grade.

所以我要說的另一件事是，如果你真的深入美國，那麼其中一些改裝牆的後端負載會更多一些，特別是在規格等級方面。

But about 25% to 30% of spec-grade loan and bond maturities in 2028 were actually issued in '23 and '24 when rates were elevated.

但 2028 年到期的規格級貸款和債券中約有 25% 至 30% 實際上是在 2023 年和 24 年利率上升時發行的。

So I mean, that tells us if we have a declining rate environment, going forward, we may actually start to see some pull forward from those very elevated maturity walls a little bit out in the future.

所以我的意思是，這告訴我們，如果我們面臨利率下降的環境，那麼未來我們實際上可能會開始看到那些非常高的期限牆在未來會出現一些拉動。

So when you actually combine investment-grade and spec-grade maturities -- so as I said, we've had less pull forward investment grade, more pull forward in spec grade.

因此，當你實際將投資等級和規格等級到期日結合起來時，正如我所說，我們的投資等級提前期較少，而規格級提前期較多。

Actually, on an aggregate basis, the pull forward, the one year -- the pull forward from one-year forward maturity walls is almost exactly in line with historical averages and the forward maturities one year out or 15% higher than this time last year.

實際上，從總體上看，一年期的提前期限——一年期期限牆的提前期限幾乎完全符合歷史平均水平，一年期的遠期期限比去年同期高出 15% 。

So I think net-net, despite the fact that we've had a heavier spec grade pull forward this year, I actually think this is still a tailwind for us in the near term.

因此，我認為淨淨，儘管今年我們的規格等級有所提高，但我實際上認為這在短期內對我們來說仍然是一個順風。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

克雷格·胡貝爾，胡貝爾研究夥伴。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Can you just talk a little bit about the spread that you had between the 70% transaction revenue growth in ratings versus 51% global issuance in the quarter?

您能否簡單談談本季 70% 的評級交易收入成長與 51% 的全球發行收入之間的差距？

And then maybe, Noémie, just throw in there what the incentive comp was in the third quarter and the fourth quarter outlook.

然後，Noémie，也許只需添加第三季和第四季前景的激勵補償。

Yes, Craig.

是的，克雷格。

So we had favorable mix.

所以我們有有利的組合。

We certainly -- and Noémie talked about, we had very strong investment-grade issuance but there was a lot of opportunistic issuance.

當然，諾米談到，我們有非常強勁的投資等級發行，但也有很多機會主義發行。

So if you think about investment-grade issuers, we have two kinds of commercial constructs.

因此，如果您考慮投資等級發行人，我們有兩種商業結構。

We have frequent issuers and we have infrequent issuers.

我們有頻繁發行人，也有不頻繁發行人。

We saw a lot of volume coming from infrequent issuers, just tapping the market.

我們看到大量的交易量來自不頻繁發行的機構，只是在挖掘市場。

Then we had very strong leveraged finance growth.

然後我們的槓桿融資成長非常強勁。

Leveraged finance is typically revenue mix friendly.

槓桿融資通常對收入組合有利。

That was certainly the case.

情況確實如此。

And then, of course, we also have -- we had a real pickup in first-time mandates.

當然，我們的首次任務也確實有所增加。

And so they have -- oftentimes, there's fees associated with onboarding first-time issuers.

因此，他們通常會收取與首次發行人入職相關的費用。

And we had kind of our consistent pricing initiatives, which all contributed to favorable revenue mix relative to issuance.

我們有一致的定價舉措，這都有助於相對於發行而言有利的收入組合。

And then on the incentive compensation for the third quarter of 2024, we actually recorded an adjustment to the accruals to reflect the updated full year revenue outlook in MIS specifically.

然後，關於 2024 年第三季的激勵薪酬，我們實際上記錄了對應計費用的調整，以具體反映 MIS 中更新的全年收入前景。

So the incentive compensation accruals were about $150 million in the third quarter, which is higher than prior year by 54%.

因此，第三季應計激勵薪酬約為 1.5 億美元，比去年同期成長 54%。

Just for the full year, we expect incentive compensation overall to be approximately $490 million and that translates into about $120 million for the fourth quarter.

僅就全年而言，我們預計激勵薪酬總體約為 4.9 億美元，相當於第四季的約 1.2 億美元。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

喬治唐，高盛。

Hi, thanks.

你好，謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I wanted to dive more into your ratings outlook.

我想更深入地了解您的評級前景。

You mentioned on a net basis, the pull forward of IG and spec grade is exactly in line with historical averages in the forward maturities, one year out is about 15% higher.

您提到，從淨值來看，IG 和 SPEC 等級的前移與遠期期限的歷史平均值完全一致，一年後大約高出 15%。

And yet your updated guide implies about mid-single-digit MIS revenue growth in 4Q, even though comps don't really get any tougher in the fourth quarter.

然而，更新後的指南暗示第四季度管理資訊系統收入將實現中個位數成長，儘管第四季度的比較並沒有真正變得更加艱難。

So can you talk about what leads you to think 4Q issuance growth will moderate meaningfully?

那麼您能否談談是什麼讓您認為第四季的發行成長將顯著放緩？

And to what extent do you think 4Q MIS growth will serve as a proxy for 2025 MIS growth?

您認為第 4 季 MIS 成長將在多大程度上代表 2025 年 MIS 成長？

George, so we've, I think, talked about on each of the earnings calls this year, that we believe that issuance is going to decline in the fourth quarter versus the prior year quarter because there's been intra-year pull forward.

喬治，我想我們在今年的每次財報電話會議上都談到過，我們認為第四季度的發行量將比去年同期有所下降，因為年內出現了拉動。

So that's within the calendar year and that's just banks telling issuers, hey, in the event there's any election volatility, why don't you just get ahead of that.

所以這是在日曆年內，這只是銀行告訴發行人，嘿，如果出現任何選舉波動，為什麼不提前採取行動。

And so we're also looking at the strength of the issuance to date.

因此，我們也在研究迄今為止發行的實力。

So we actually have lifted our outlook for Q4 issuance, so we -- versus our prior forecast.

因此，我們實際上提高了對第四季度發行的預期，因此我們——與先前的預測相比。

So we now expect the fourth quarter issuance to decline in something like the mid-single-digit range and it was mid-teens percent decline in our prior guidance.

因此，我們現在預計第四季的發行量將下降到個位數左右，而我們先前的指導則下降了百分之十左右。

So we've actually lifted the view for the fourth quarter.

因此，我們實際上提高了對第四季度的預期。

And that lift, combined with the beat in the third quarter led us to up our full-year issuance outlook to mid-30s.

這一提振，加上第三季的表現，使我們將全年發行預期上調至 30 多美元。

And then you triangulate that to revenue where we're looking at something like low single-digit percent growth in revenue over the prior year quarter.

然後將其與收入進行三角測量，我們將看到與去年同期相比收入成長率較低的個位數百分比。

And that's just, again, what contributes to that favorable issuance mix, some of the things I just talked about with Craig's question.

這又是促成有利發行組合的因素，我剛才在克雷格的問題中談到了一些事情。

2025, I think, could be a different ball game.

我認為 2025 年可能會是一場不同的比賽。

Again, there's just been a lot of, we believe calendar year pull forward.

再說一次，我們相信日曆年已經向前推進了很多。

And I think you are going to know in early November, if we don't see a slowdown in issuance, then there would potentially be some upside to our guidance.

我想你會在 11 月初知道，如果我們沒有看到發行放緩，那麼我們的指導可能會有一些上行空間。

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Stifel.

什洛莫·羅森鮑姆，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Rob, can you give us a little bit of an update on some of the progress for the various AI products?

Rob，您能為我們介紹一下各種人工智慧產品的一些最新進展嗎？

So you had like navigators, skills, assistants.

所以你有導航員、技能、助手。

Can you talk about where you are in both, in development and then also in kind of adoption?

您能談談您在開發和採用方面的進展嗎？

I know Noémie talked about a little bit of a -- not as fast of an adoption because the clients are setting up their own frameworks.

我知道 Noémie 談到了一點——採用的速度沒有那麼快，因為客戶正在建立自己的框架。

Maybe you could talk about, is there anything that leads you to believe that the pacing is going to be dramatically different from what you thought or the adoption will be very different from what you thought?

也許你可以談談，是否有什麼事情讓你相信節奏將與你的想法截然不同，或者採用將與你的想法有很大不同？

Shlomo, thanks for the question.

什洛莫，謝謝你的提問。

So let me just kind of tick these off here.

所以讓我在這裡勾選這些。

So we talked a little bit about Research Assistant, which was our first product in the market.

所以我們討論了一些關於研究助理，這是我們在市場上的第一個產品。

So I'm not going to spend too much time on that.

所以我不會花太多時間在這上面。

Since then, we've rolled out suite of what we call navigators.

從那時起，我們推出了所謂的導航器套件。

So this is -- think of AI enablement of the existing products, allowing you to kind of get the most out of the products.

所以這就是——想想現有產品的人工智慧支持，讓你能夠充分利用產品。

We've rolled that out across a number of products.

我們已經在許多產品中推廣了這一點。

And that's going to be helpful to both -- well, Noémie mentioned some of the things, customer satisfaction, it's going to be helpful to retention.

這對雙方都有幫助——嗯，諾米提到了一些事情，客戶滿意度，這將有助於保留。

It's going to be helpful to our ability to price behind those enhancements.

這將有助於我們為這些增強功能定價的能力。

We've also started to roll out other AI-enabled products.

我們也開始推出其他支援人工智慧的產品。

So Research Assistant was the first.

所以研究助理是第一位的。

The second was an AI early warning system leveraging a number of our different datasets.

第二個是利用我們許多不同的資料集的人工智慧預警系統。

We started with a focus on commercial real estate.

我們一開始就專注於商業房地產。

We've got a very nice pipeline for that.

我們為此有一個非常好的管道。

That's focused primarily on banks.

這主要集中在銀行。

And then we started -- early in the year, we did a very small acqui-hire of a company called Able AI.

然後我們開始——今年年初，我們對一家名為 Able AI 的公司進行了一次非常小的收購。

And that brought over a small engineering team that was working on AI enablement for banking workflow.

這帶來了一個小型工程團隊，致力於銀行工作流程的人工智慧支援。

And so when we brought them over, that then accelerated our product road map for banking.

因此，當我們將它們引入時，就加速了我們的銀行業產品路線圖。

And so we've rolled out an automated credit memo offering and automated covenants.

因此，我們推出了自動貸項憑證產品和自動契約。

So you're going to see more and more AI enablement of our banking workflow, of our insurance workflow.

因此，您將看到越來越多的人工智慧支援我們的銀行工作流程和保險工作流程。

That's one of the benefits of having the IRP as well in insurance, very easy to do the AI enablement.

這是在保險領域擁有 IRP 的好處之一，很容易實現人工智慧支援。

So just in terms of adoption, it's a mixed bag.

因此，就採用率而言，情況好壞參半。

And we talked a little bit about it.

我們對此進行了一些討論。

You've got, in some cases, your smaller firms, the asset managers and others are able to adopt more quickly.

在某些情況下，您的小型公司、資產管理公司和其他人能夠更快地採用。

When it comes to the big banks, they've all got risk frameworks and regulators and other things that they have to make sure before they're deploying these AI-enabled solutions that they've got a risk and control framework that's going to pass regulatory muster.

對於大型銀行來說，他們都有風險框架、監管機構以及其他在部署這些人工智慧解決方案之前必須確保的風險和控制框架，這些框架將透過監管集結。

So while those conversations are very encouraging because we've elevated the dialogue, we're having at many of our customers, they're taking longer.

因此，雖然這些對話非常令人鼓舞，因為我們提高了對話水平，但我們的許多客戶需要更長的時間。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense.

希望這能給你一種感覺。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

In looking at your guidance for the year and if I try to back into the implied guidance for 4Q adjusted EPS, it looks like you're guiding to that to be flat to potentially down.

看看您今年的指導，如果我嘗試回到第四季度調整後每股收益的隱含指導，看起來您的指導是持平甚至可能下降。

Are you just being overly conservative?

你只是過於保守嗎？

Or is there something specifically going on?

或是有什麼特別的事情發生？

So we're guiding for -- we've updated the adjusted diluted EPS guidance range based on the updated Q4 implied outlook.

因此，我們的指導是－我們根據更新後的第四季度隱含前景更新了調整後的稀釋每股盈餘指引範圍。

So just to give you numbers, we're raising our adjusted diluted EPS guidance range and we're narrowing it to -- for the full year to $11.90 to $12.10, that's still 21% at the midpoint, which is driven by MIS performance.

因此，為了給您一個數字，我們正在提高調整後的稀釋每股收益指導範圍，並將其縮小到全年至11.90 美元至12.10 美元，這仍然是中點的21%，這是由MIS 業績推動的。

So what we've done here is, we flowed through the Q3 beat through our full-year guide, and we've increased our ratings revenue outlook for Q4 versus the prior forecast at the high end.

因此，我們在這裡所做的是，我們在全年指南中貫穿了第三季的節奏，與先前的高端預測相比，我們提高了第四季的收視率收入前景。

So the midpoint of our updated guidance now implies Q4 EPS growth will be relatively flat to slightly down in the Q4 versus the prior period and down approximately 30% sequentially from Q3, which is aligned with what we see in the top line for MIS.

因此，我們更新的指引的中點現在意味著第四季度每股收益成長將相對持平或略有下降，與上一時期相比，並且比第三季度連續下降約30%，這與我們在MIS的頂線中看到的情況一致。

And I guess (multiple speakers) Sorry, go ahead.

我想（多個發言者）抱歉，請繼續。

No, I was just going to ask if there's something specifically going on with margins in the fourth quarter we should focus on.

不，我只是想問第四季的利潤率是否有什麼特別值得我們關注的事情。

So for the fourth quarter margin, as I said earlier in my prepared remarks, we've accounted for the incentive compensation adjustments in the third quarter to reflect the updated Q4 -- to reflect the updated top line outlook.

因此，對於第四季度的利潤率，正如我之前在準備好的發言中所說，我們已經考慮了第三季度的激勵薪酬調整，以反映更新後的第四季度——以反映更新後的營收前景。

So that's already been accounted for.

所以這已經被考慮在內了。

And if you look at the margins for the Q4, we -- that's really the effect of the incentive compensation but there's nothing else that we should

如果你看看第四季的利潤率，我們——這確實是激勵性薪酬的影響，但我們沒有其他應該做的

--

--

Yes.

是的。

I mean the MIS margin, I mean, I think primarily, it's just revenues are going to be lower, that, we'd expect that margin to be a bit lower.

我的意思是管理資訊系統的利潤率，我的意思是，我認為主要是收入會降低，我們預計利潤率會低一些。

And so as I said, let's watch kind of the -- starting around the second week of November and see what's going on with issuance and that will give you a sense of how to think about our guidance.

正如我所說，讓我們從 11 月第二週開始觀察，看看發行情況如何，這會讓您了解如何思考我們的指導。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

傑森‧哈斯，富國銀行。

Hey, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question.

嘿，下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。

Appreciate the comments earlier on MA ARR.

感謝之前對 MA ARR 的評論。

It sounds like the Data & Information and Research & Insights is maybe not as strong as expected but there was no change to the full year guidance there.

聽起來數據和資訊以及研究和見解可能沒有預期的那麼強勁，但全年指導沒有變化。

So I was curious if you're now expecting closer to the high single digits and the low double digits?

所以我很好奇你現在是否期望接近高個位數和低兩位數？

And then if not, can you talk about what other areas have been coming in stronger than expected to offset that?

如果沒有，您能否談談哪些其他領域的表現比預期更強勁，可以抵銷這種影響？

And then maybe also any color on what would drive an acceleration from 3Q into 4Q?

然後也許還有什麼顏色可以推動從第三季加速到第四季？

Yes.

是的。

So on ARR growth in the third quarter was 9%.

因此，第三季的 ARR 成長率為 9%。

It was a bit lower than our recent sustained performance of 10%.

這比我們最近 10% 的持續表現要低一些。

That was affected by some of the factors we've highlighted on last quarter's call.

這是受到我們在上季電話會議中強調的一些因素的影響。

Stepping back and looking at our performance today, we've had more attrition events in the first quarter, as we said.

退一步看看我們今天的表現，正如我們所說，我們在第一季發生了更多的人員流失事件。

We had a bit of a lower sales than expected with our banks and asset manager customer segment as they continue to face tight purchasing pattern.

由於銀行和資產管理客戶群持續面臨緊張的採購模式，我們的銷售額略低於預期。

And we also had a couple of headwinds from the other factors we've talked about in the last call, that's customer transitioning to MSCI for sustainability solutions and large federal government contracts that renewed at a lower value in Q3.

我們在上次電話會議中討論的其他因素也帶來了一些不利因素，即客戶轉向 MSCI 尋求永續發展解決方案，以及在第三季以較低價值續約的大型聯邦政府合約。

We also want to acknowledge that the new business growth has been a little bit more back-end loaded than we initially thought with 50% more pipeline entering the fourth quarter this year than a year ago.

我們也想承認，新業務成長的後端負載比我們最初想像的要多一些，今年第四季進入的管道數量比一年前增加了 50%。

Looking out to the remainder of the year, we're maintaining our outlook of a high single-digit revenue growth and ARR of high single to low double digits with a midpoint still in the higher end of the high single digit.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們維持高個位數收入成長和高個位數到低兩位數的 ARR 的預期，中點仍處於高個位數的高端。

That's the guidance for the full year.

這是全年的指導。

And we have, as I said, a strong new business pipeline going into the fourth quarter.

正如我所說，我們有一個強大的新業務管道進入第四季度。

We have a very large book of renewals for the month of December, which we expect to renew at 93% plus rate in line with what you've seen year-to-date.

我們有大量 12 月的續訂記錄，預計續訂率將達到 93% 以上，與您今年迄今為止看到的情況一致。

So again, the good pipeline creation that we saw in the third quarter, which was driven by, I think, an increase of 35% in meeting activity, a lot of those in person, that's very significantly up from a year ago.

再說一遍，我們在第三季度看到了良好的管道創建，我認為這是由會議活動增加 35% 推動的，其中許多是面對面的會議活動，這比一年前顯著增加。

And so as we're heading into the fourth quarter, which is our busiest month of the year -- our busiest quarter of the year, our new business pipeline is very healthy.

因此，當我們進入第四季度，這是我們一年中最繁忙的月份——我們一年中最繁忙的季度時，我們的新業務管道非常健康。

We have a good mix of large few deals in our KYC and Data & Information businesses, and we also have a large volume of new business and renewals, which is what underpins our outlook.

我們在 KYC 和數據與資訊業務方面擁有大量的少量交易，而且我們還擁有大量的新業務和續訂，這是我們前景的基礎。

Yes.

是的。

And maybe just to double-click -- and by the way, welcome to the call, Jason.

也許只需雙擊——順便說一下，歡迎致電，傑森。

It's good to have you on.

有你在真是太好了。

Just to double click on maybe an area where -- and there are plenty that we're encouraged by.

只要雙擊某個區域，其中就有很多值得我們鼓勵的地方。

As Noémie said, we've got a very nice pipeline relative to this time last year.

正如諾米所說，與去年這個時候相比，我們的頻道非常好。

But in KYC, we've got a really good set of product launches.

但在 KYC 方面，我們發布了一系列非常好的產品。

So we've got a new digital investigations product that we've just launched in September.

我們在 9 月剛推出了一款新的數位調查產品。

We've got a lot of customer engagement around that.

我們有很多客戶參與其中。

We've got our entity verification offering, which has got a really nice and growing pipeline.

我們已經有了實體驗證產品，它有一個非常好的且不斷成長的管道。

And also, there's a really interesting emerging opportunity here to leverage AI to build screening agents.

而且，這裡有一個非常有趣的新興機會，可以利用人工智慧來建立篩選代理。

And if you think about how much of what is going on around KYC, diligence is done by armies of people oftentimes in offshore centers, there's a real opportunity to leverage our -- both our data as well as AI to be able to not only be more efficient but actually be even more effective and have a great audit trail for the regulators.

如果您考慮一下 KYC 周圍發生的事情，盡職調查通常是由離岸中心的大量人員完成的，那麼就有一個真正的機會利用我們的數據和人工智慧，不僅能夠效率更高，但實際上更加有效，並且為監管機構提供了良好的審計線索。

So some very interesting stuff there, I think, in our product -- recent product pipeline around KYC that leads us to continue to be very optimistic around that business.

我認為，我們的產品中有一些非常有趣的東西——最近圍繞著 KYC 的產品管道，這使我們繼續對業務感到非常樂觀。

Good to hear your thinking.

很高興聽到你的想法。

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So this kind of runs counter to that last answer.

所以這與最後一個答案背道而馳。

But can you just comment on KYC ARR.

但您能否對 KYC ARR 發表評論。

In the quarter, 14% growth is great, but it decelerated from what your KYC business has historically done.

本季 14% 的成長是不錯的，但與 KYC 業務的歷史記錄相比有所放緩。

I don't know if there was any holdback of customers waiting for the new product launches or just any comments on why KYC growth was a little softer for ARR in the quarter?

我不知道等待新產品發布的客戶是否有任何阻礙，或者只是對為什麼本季度 ARR 的 KYC 增長稍微疲軟有任何評論？

The KYC ARR growth was 14% in the third quarter that was lower than the 19% we saw in Q3 last year.

第三季 KYC ARR 成長率為 14%，低於去年第三季的 19%。

In Q3 last year, we had large transactions with the federal government.

去年第三季度，我們與聯邦政府進行了大量交易。

As I said earlier, some of those renewed at a little bit lower rate.

正如我之前所說，其中一些續訂率略低。

So that's what explains the lower number for the third quarter.

這就是第三季數字較低的原因。

Having said that, we have a strong pipeline, as Rob said, heading into the fourth quarter.

話雖如此，正如羅布所說，我們有一個強大的管道，進入第四季度。

So we expect this to be more of an air pocket than a new run rate.

因此，我們預計這更像是一個氣泡，而不是新的運行率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

安德魯‧史坦納曼，摩根大通。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask about Praedicat.

我想問一下 Praedicat 的事。

I think it was the only acquisition that Moody's has done with revenues closed in the last 12 months.

我認為這是穆迪在過去 12 個月內完成的唯一一筆收入已完成的收購。

Just tell me if I'm correct about that.

請告訴我我的說法是否正確。

And specifically about Praedicat, I'd like to know the dollar contribution both to revenues and ARR in the third quarter just reported and in the fourth quarter guide.

特別是關於 Praedicat，我想知道剛剛報告的第三季和第四季指南中的美元對收入和 ARR 的貢獻。

Andrew, it's Rob.

安德魯，這是羅布。

We did -- maybe you're talking about MA, we did acquire the remaining interest in GCR, which is the African rating agency and that closed in the very beginning of the quarter and that had revenues and operating income.

我們確實收購了——也許你說的是 MA，我們確實收購了 GCR 的剩餘權益，GCR 是一家非洲評級機構，於本季初關閉，擁有收入和營業收入。

I guess I would say it's just -- this is immaterial to our overall our overall financial results.

我想我會說這對我們的整體財務表現並不重要。

And I know you're looking for an organic number, I might steer you to ARR.

我知道您正在尋找有機號碼，我可能會引導您使用 ARR。

So I would say, first of all, Praedicat is not in our third quarter results.

所以我想說，首先，Praedicat 不在我們第三季的業績中。

And if you look at ARR, ARR is an organic number.

如果你看 ARR，你會發現 ARR 是一個有機數字。

So that will give you a sense of excluding acquisitions.

所以這會給你一種排除收購的感覺。

The one other -- since we're on the topic of Praedicat, I mean, it was a really nice bolt-on for us to move into the casualty space.

另一個——既然我們討論的是 Praedicat 的話題，我的意思是，這對我們進入傷亡領域來說是一個非常好的補充。

RMS, very, very strong in the property space and this allowed us to move into the casualty space.

RMS 在財產領域非常非常強大，這使我們能夠進入傷亡領域。

And we announced that acquisition right before a huge industry conference in Europe that I went to and we did literally north of 100 customer meetings and there were some very strong interest in Praedicat's capabilities and really understanding emerging and long-tailed casualty and mass tort risks.

我們在我參加的歐洲一次大型行業會議之前宣布了這項收購，我們召開了超過 100 場客戶會議，人們對 Praedicat 的能力以及真正了解新興和長尾傷亡和大規模侵權風險的能力非常感興趣。

In fact, I think it's something we're going to be able to use across not only analytics but also even it will help inform some of our work in ratings.

事實上，我認為我們不僅可以在分析中使用它，甚至可以為我們的一些評級工作提供資訊。

So we're really excited to have Praedicat as part of the Moody's family.

因此，我們非常高興 Praedicat 成為穆迪家族的一員。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Russell Quelch, Redburn Atlantic.

拉塞爾·奎爾奇，《雷德本大西洋》。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for squeezing me in.

謝謝你把我擠進去。

Rob, I wondered if you could be a bit more specific about the level of growth, you're seeing in private credit assessments and how much that's contributing to the revenue today.

羅布，我想知道您是否可以更具體地說明您在私人信用評估中看到的增長水平以及它對當今收入的貢獻有多大。

You mentioned being a leader, early leader perhaps in rating the BDCs. So I wondered what else you're doing to position yourself to capture this opportunity. You mentioned conversations with Apollo and Blackstone.

您提到作為領導者，也許是對 BDC 進行評級的早期領導者。所以我想知道你還做了什麼來定位自己來抓住這個機會。您提到了與阿波羅和黑石的對話。

I wonder if you could add a bit more flavor to those conversations, if that's leading to immediate revenue opportunities or if this is more stuff for the future?

我想知道您是否可以為這些對話添加更多風味，這是否會帶來直接的收入機會，或者這會為未來帶來更多東西？

Yes.

是的。

So Russell, thanks for the question.

拉塞爾，謝謝你的提問。

Actually, I would say we're going to see revenue -- so we are already seeing revenue from private credit flowing through the rating agency and analytics, that's already happening.

事實上，我想說我們將會看到收入——所以我們已經看到私人信貸的收入流經評級機構和分析機構，這已經發生了。

So it's interesting.

所以這很有趣。

I had a conversation with my team the other day and I said, AI is a fantastic opportunity for us.

前幾天我和我的團隊進行了一次對話，我說人工智慧對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會。

So is private credit but private credit is going to manifest itself in the financials faster than AI is going to because of some of the dynamics I just talked about in terms of adoption curves.

私人信貸也是如此，但由於我剛才在採用曲線方面談到的一些動態，私人信貸將比人工智慧更快地在金融領域體現出來。

So we've got some work to do to start to break out from you all and give you a better sense of how we're capturing private credit revenue coming through both the rating agency and the analytics business.

因此，我們有一些工作要做，以便開始擺脫你們所有人的束縛，讓你們更了解我們如何透過評級機構和分析業務來獲取私人信貸收入。

And I -- we know we, in some ways, kind of owe that to you all.

我 - 我們知道，在某些方面，我們欠你們所有人。

But what I would say is again, back to a few of my comments earlier, we're already seeing it come through FIG ratings and that is through the ratings of BDCs and fund finance instruments.

但我想說的是，回到我之前的一些評論，我們已經透過FIG 評級以及BDC 和基金金融工具的評級看到了這一點。

And while those numbers are small relative to things like what we're doing, the total revenues that we're getting from rating insurance and banking issuance, it's growing quite fast.

雖然這些數字相對於我們正在做的事情、我們從評級保險和銀行發行中獲得的總收入來說很小，但它的成長速度相當快。

In fact, in many cases, growing faster.

事實上，在很多情況下，成長速度更快。

So what we're doing with BDCs, that's growing faster than, for instance, our revenue line for banking, right?

那麼，我們對 BDC 所做的事情，其成長速度比我們銀行業的收入線等更快，對嗎？

So you're going to see it -- you're already seeing it in FIG.

所以你將會看到它——你已經在圖 1 中看到了它。

We're already seeing it in structured finance and the rating of asset-backed finance.

我們已經在結構性融資和資產支持融資的評級中看到了這一點。

And we talked a little bit about that earlier and there's quite a pipeline for that.

我們之前討論過這一點，並且有相當多的管道可以做到這一點。

We're starting to see it in our -- even in our project finance area, where there's more and more demand for private ratings that for -- loans that investors are investing in and they actually want a third-party view of risk.

我們開始在我們的專案融資領域看到這一點，那裡對投資者投資的貸款的私人評級的需求越來越多，而且他們實際上希望第三方對風險有看法。

And so it's interesting, as you think about what's going on with the banks and this kind of originate to distribute model that they're more and more moving to.

所以這很有趣，當你想到銀行正在發生的事情以及他們越來越多地轉向的這種起源於分銷模式時。

They're all saying, hey, look, in order to distribute this credit to a wide -- broader range of potential investors, including everything from insurers, pension funds, high net worth, you name it, we need a third-party assessment of credit risk.

他們都在說，嘿，看，為了將這些信貸分配給更廣泛的潛在投資者，包括保險公司、退休基金、高淨值人士等，我們需要第三方評估的信用風險。

In some -- in many cases, that's a rating for the instruments that I talked about.

在某些情況下——在許多情況下，這是對我談到的樂器的評分。

But there's also demand from the investors who say, hey, look, I'm invested in these private credit funds and I want to have more visibility into the credit risk in these funds.

但也有來自投資者的需求，他們說，嘿，看，我投資了這些私人信貸基金，我希望更清楚地了解這些基金的信貸風險。

And I want that to come from an independent source rather than from the GP themselves, right?

我希望這些資訊來自獨立來源，而不是全科醫生本身，對嗎？

So we are seeing demand for that.

所以我們看到了對此的需求。

And in fact, when we announced our partnership with MSCI and ESG, we said that we're working to explore opportunities to leverage their distribution into the LP and GP community and to be able to provide solutions around private credit.

事實上，當我們宣布與 MSCI 和 ESG 合作時，我們表示我們正在努力探索機會，利用它們在 LP 和 GP 社區中的分佈，並能夠提供圍繞私人信貸的解決方案。

In fact, we just had a fantastic meeting with the teams and we're working to do exactly that.

事實上，我們剛剛與團隊進行了一次精彩的會議，我們正在努力做到這一點。

So I think, again, I know that we need to do probably a little better job of helping you understand how that's starting to materialize across both parts of our business but we're already seeing that in both P&Ls.

因此，我再次認為，我知道我們可能需要做得更好一點，以幫助您了解這一點如何開始在我們業務的兩個部分中實現，但我們已經在損益表中看到了這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

亞歷克斯·克拉姆，瑞銀集團。

Yes.

是的。

Hey, hello, everyone.

嘿，大家好。

I know it's late in the call.

我知道打電話已經太晚了。

So just a quick cleanup here.

所以這裡只是快速清理一下。

On MA margin, can you just talk about what you're expecting in the fourth quarter?

關於MA利潤率，您能談談您對第四季的預期嗎？

I think, if I do my math right, I think margin is supposed to pick up in the 4Q.

我認為，如果我計算正確，我認為利潤率應該會在第四季度有所回升。

But generally speaking, from a seasonal perspective, costs go up after the 3Q and margin goes down.

但整體來說，從季節角度來看，第三季之後成本上升，利潤率下降。

So I don't know if that's part of the incentive comp you talked about or anything else.

所以我不知道這是否是你所說的激勵補償的一部分或其他什麼。

And obviously, Praedicat is coming in as well, I think.

我認為，顯然，Praedicat 也會加入進來。

So just maybe flesh out why this year may be a little bit different.

所以也許可以充實一下為什麼今年可能會有點不一樣。

And then sorry, related to that, you talked about investing a lot in MA earlier on the call.

抱歉，與此相關的是，您早些時候在電話會議上談到了對 MA 的大量投資。

So just wondering if you have any updated thoughts on the margin expansion that you're looking at for that business in the next couple of years?

所以想知道您對於未來幾年該業務的利潤擴張是否有任何最新想法？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So for the -- to get on the Q4 question, this is a seasonality of revenue driven.

因此，對於第四季度的問題，這是收入驅動的季節性。

So as you know, our fourth quarter in MA is the largest quarter in terms of revenue.

如您所知，我們在馬薩諸塞州的第四季度是收入最高的季度。

So given the typical strength in the fourth quarter, we expect the adjusted operating margin in MA to tick up in the fourth quarter to slightly above the range of our guide.

因此，考慮到第四季度的典型強勢，我們預計 MA 調整後的營業利潤率將在第四季度上升至略高於我們的指導範圍。

There's a little bit of headwinds from Praedicat but as Rob said, not materially affecting the guide and we're maintaining our 30% to 31% margin for the full year.

Praedicat 帶來了一些阻力，但正如 Rob 所說，這不會對指南產生重大影響，我們全年的利潤率將保持在 30% 至 31% 之間。

So that's for Q4.

這就是第四季的情況。

Now looking out in the outer years, as Rob said, we'll update you later in February but we're -- we've been investing.

現在展望未來幾年，正如羅布所說，我們將在二月晚些時候向您通報最新情況，但我們一直在投資。

We've invested in our GenAI capabilities, in our platforming, in our new product development.

我們對 GenAI 能力、平台和新產品開發進行了投資。

I'd say we're mostly through that investment cycle and we'll be really focusing on expanding the margin and continuing to migrate some of those customers from the legacy platforms into the banking and IRP.

我想說，我們基本上已經完成了這個投資週期，我們將真正專注於擴大利潤，並繼續將其中一些客戶從遺留平台遷移到銀行和 IRP。

That will drive our margin expansion in the long run.

從長遠來看，這將推動我們的利潤率擴張。

And we're also making sure we are very disciplined in the management of discretionary spend.

我們也確保在管理可自由支配支出方面非常嚴格。

Actually, you saw that materializing in the expansion in operating margin in MA in the fourth -- in the third quarter despite the fact that revenue kind of remained consistent with the second quarter.

實際上，儘管收入與第二季保持一致，但您在第四季度（第三季）看到了 MA 營業利潤率的擴張。

So that's really what I can say about the MA margin and still reiterating our guidance range for the full year.

這就是我對 MA 利潤率的看法，並且仍然重申我們全年的指導範圍。

Yes.

是的。

So to underscore that, we're definitely committed to the medium-term targets for margin for MA.

因此，為了強調這一點，我們絕對致力於 MA 利潤率的中期目標。

I'm also reflecting on one thing I said earlier about positive mix on leveraged finance, and I lumped bank loans and high yield together in that.

我也在反思我之前所說的關於槓桿融資的積極組合的一件事，我將銀行貸款和高收益混為一談。

Actually, I think because of all the refi and reset activity we had going on and all the refi with loans, that wasn't a favorable mix, but high yield was.

實際上，我認為由於我們正在進行的所有再融資和重置活動以及所有貸款再融資，這不是一個有利的組合，但高收益是。

So I just want to make sure that was clear.

所以我只是想確保這一點清楚。

But on balance, we had a favorable mix from our corporate finance issuance.

但總的來說，我們的企業融資發行帶來了有利的組合。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Rob and Noémie for some final closing remarks.

現在我會把電話轉回給 Rob 和 Noémie，讓他們做最後的總結演講。

All right.

好的。

Well, thank you, everybody, for the questions and we look forward to talking with you on the fourth quarter earnings call.

好的，謝謝大家提出的問題，我們期待在第四季的財報電話會議上與您交談。

Until then, take care.

在那之前，要小心。

This concludes Moody's Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

穆迪公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。

As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage.

提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源部分下發布管理資訊系統收入明細。

Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website.

此外，穆迪投資者關係網站將在電話會議結束後提供重播。

Thank you.

謝謝。