穆迪 (MCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。現在我想通知大家，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the third quarter of 2023 as well as our revised outlook for select metrics for full year 2023. The earnings press release and a presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我是 Shivani Kak，投資者關係主管。今天上午，穆迪發布了2023 年第三季度業績以及我們對2023 年全年選定指標的修訂後展望。收益新聞稿和伴隨本次電話會議的演示文稿均可在我們的網站ir.moodys. com 上取得。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in U.S. GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將提供非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有美國公認會計準則調整後指標之間的對帳情況。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion & Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。今天的言論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論與分析部分以及我們在表格中的年度報告中討論的風險因素截至2022 年12 月31 日的年度10-K 以及該公司提交的其他SEC 文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和SEC 網站上找到。這些與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I'd also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。

Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our results, key business highlights and outlook. After which, he'll be joined by Caroline Sullivan, Moody's interim Chief Financial Officer, to answer your questions. I will now turn the call over to Rob.

穆迪總裁兼執行長 Rob Fauber 將概述我們的業績、主要業務亮點和前景。之後，穆迪臨時財務長卡羅琳·沙利文 (Caroline Sullivan) 將與他一起回答您的問題。我現在將把電話轉給羅布。

Thanks, Shivani. Good morning, and thanks to everybody for joining today's call. I'm excited to share our strong financial results as well as some key business highlights. And that's going to include some notable innovations and investments, progress on our GenAI strategy and a spotlight on our fastest-growing business in MA, that is our Know Your Customer business, or KYC as we commonly refer to it.

謝謝，希瓦尼。早安，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我很高興與大家分享我們強勁的財務業績以及一些關鍵業務亮點。這將包括一些值得注意的創新和投資、我們的 GenAI 策略的進展以及對我們在馬薩諸塞州成長最快的業務的關注，即我們的「了解你的客戶」業務，或我們通常所說的 KYC。

And before I get started, I just want to say how proud I am that Moody's has again finished #1 in the Chartis RiskTech100. That is the most comprehensive global ranking of risk and compliance technology providers. And it is a great recognition of the breadth and depth of our solutions based on both market research and customer feedback.

在開始之前，我只想說，穆迪再次在 Chartis RiskTech100 中排名第一，我對此感到多麼自豪。這是最全面的風險與合規技術供應商全球排名。這是對我們基於市場研究和客戶回饋的解決方案的廣度和深度的高度認可。

I also want to take a moment to recognize the incredible resilience and dedication of our people. And I've really appreciated how our people have come together recently to support each other and to continue to deliver for our customers.

我還想花一點時間來表彰我們人民令人難以置信的韌性和奉獻精神。我非常感謝我們的員工最近團結在一起互相支持並繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。

So as you all will have seen from this morning's earnings release, we reported 15% overall revenue growth with strong top line performance and improved adjusted operating margins from each of our businesses. And that contributed to a 31% increase in adjusted diluted EPS in the third quarter.

正如大家從今天早上的財報中看到的那樣，我們的整體收入增長了 15%，營收表現強勁，每項業務的調整後營業利潤率均有所提高。這導致第三季調整後攤薄每股收益成長 31%。

MA revenue grew 13% while achieving its fourth consecutive quarter of 10% ARR growth. And MA's growth continues to be led by our KYC business. We now have over $300 million of annualized recurring revenue, or ARR. And that's growing at 18%. MA also produced an adjusted operating margin of 33.6%.

MA 營收成長 13%，同時實現連續第四個季度 ARR 成長 10%。 MA 的成長持續由我們的 KYC 業務引領。我們現在的年化經常性收入 (ARR) 超過 3 億美元。而且這個數字還在以 18% 的速度成長。 MA 調整後的營業利益率為 33.6%。

Now MIS grew 18% in the quarter as the leveraged finance issuance markets continued to improve from last year's subdued levels, I would call it. And MIS revenue is now expected to grow in the mid- to high single-digit percentage range for the full year. And that acknowledges the current uncertainties in the capital markets.

現在，隨著槓桿融資發行市場從去年的低迷水準持續改善，MIS 在本季成長了 18%，我稱之為。目前，管理資訊系統收入預計全年將在中高個位數百分比範圍內成長。這也承認了當前資本市場的不確定性。

Last week, we published our annual refinancing wall study. And that showed a 21% increase in the total U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt coming due over the next 5 years. And as I've mentioned on prior calls, these refi walls are a very important component of our long-term growth algorithm. And that remains firmly intact.

上週，我們發布了年度再融資牆研究。這顯示未來 5 年美國到期非金融企業債務總額將增加 21%。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，這些再融資牆是我們長期成長演算法的一個非常重要的組成部分。而且這一點仍然完好無損。

And as those of you who attended our Innovation Open House last month would have heard, we're moving quickly to integrate our broad data and analytic capabilities across our product suite and to leverage the power of GenAI to develop new and cutting-edge solutions to empower both our customers and our employees.

正如上個月參加我們的創新開放日的人們所聽到的那樣，我們正在迅速採取行動，將我們廣泛的數據和分析能力整合到我們的產品套件中，並利用GenAI 的力量來開發新的尖端解決方案賦予我們的客戶和員工權力。

And the pace of innovation is clearly accelerating across our businesses. We're investing, we're launching new products, entering into strategic partnerships, all that will enable us to continue delivering market-leading growth. And if you look just at the third quarter, we announced some really interesting things. And I want to take you through a few of those. And I'm going to start with ratings.

我們各業務的創新步伐明顯加快。我們正在投資，我們正在推出新產品，建立策略合作夥伴關係，所有這些都將使我們能夠繼續實現市場領先的成長。如果你只看第三季度，我們宣布了一些非常有趣的事情。我想帶您了解其中的一些內容。我將從收視率開始。

We've talked about on prior calls about how deepening our participation in developing capital markets, and in particular, domestic issuance markets, is important to that long-term growth algorithm that I just mentioned. And that includes Latin America, where Moody's Local has grown its customer count by more than 20% this year.

我們在先前的電話會議中談到了深化我們對發展中資本市場（特別是國內發行市場）的參與對於我剛才提到的長期成長演算法的重要性。其中包括拉丁美洲，Moody's Local 今年的客戶數量增加了 20% 以上。

And the Asia-Pacific region also has some exciting opportunities, which is why in September, we further extended our domestic ratings business with the opening of VIS Rating in Vietnam. And that is a small but fast-growing domestic bond market.

亞太地區也有一些令人興奮的機會，這就是為什麼我們在9月份進一步擴展了我們的國內評級業務，在越南開設了VIS評級。這是一個規模雖小但成長迅速的國內債券市場。

I also talked about how the relevance and importance of our voice in the markets is a really critical part of what makes MIS the agency of choice for both issuers and investors. And last month, we published really a groundbreaking cross-industry report on cyber risk and practices. And it leveraged our relationship with BitSight.

我還談到了我們在市場上的聲音的相關性和重要性如何成為使 MIS 成為發行人和投資者選擇的機構的真正關鍵部分。上個月，我們發布了一份關於網路風險和實踐的開創性跨行業報告。它利用了我們與 BitSight 的關係。

And we had nearly 2,000 companies that provided data and inputs. And we were able to highlight the more than $20 trillion of rated debt that is at high risk from cyber threats. And that is, I think, a really great example of the importance of a multidimensional view of risk, in this case, understanding how cyber risks are impacting credit risks.

我們有近 2,000 家公司提供資料和輸入。我們能夠強調超過 20 兆美元的評級債務面臨來自網路威脅的高風險。我認為，這是多維風險視角重要性的一個很好的例子，在這種情況下，了解網路風險如何影響信用風險。

Now moving to MA. We're launching our first GenAI-enabled product. We call it Research Assistant. And we've already previewed it with over 150 customers. Our strategy is to commercialize the launch as we head into the year-end renewal cycle.

現在搬到馬薩諸塞州。我們正在推出首款支援 GenAI 的產品。我們稱之為研究助理。我們已經與 150 多家客戶進行了預覽。我們的策略是在進入年底更新周期時將發布商業化。

And initially, our thinking is that Research Assistant will be sold as an add-on to our flagship product, which is CreditView. And leveraging the power of an LLM with Moody's trusted proprietary content allows customers to generate rich credit insights in just seconds and with capabilities in multiple languages.

最初，我們的想法是 Research Assistant 將作為我們的旗艦產品 CreditView 的附加產品出售。利用法學碩士的力量和穆迪值得信賴的專有內容，客戶可以在短短幾秒鐘內產生豐富的信用見解，並具有多種語言的能力。

We also expanded our coverage in CreditView to now include 12,000 new unrated names. And that allows us to better serve the private credit market. And customers who purchase that module are going to have a seamless, integrated experience that includes financials, ownership structures, credit scores, sector research, interactive scorecards and peer analysis. And I think that is a great example of content integration to serve new customers and new use cases.

我們也擴大了 CreditView 的覆蓋範圍，目前包括 12,000 個新的未評級名稱。這使我們能夠更好地服務私人信貸市場。購買此模組的客戶將獲得無縫、整合的體驗，包括財務、所有權結構、信用評分、行業研究、互動式記分卡和同行分析。我認為這是內容整合服務新客戶和新用例的一個很好的例子。

We're also constantly investing in our data estate that includes Orbis, which is one of the world's largest databases on companies. And we've expanded again our partnership with BitSight by integrating their cyber data and scores for about 250,000 entities into Orbis. And that enables our customers to better understand cyber risk.

我們也持續投資於我們的資料資產，其中包括 Orbis，它是世界上最大的公司資料庫之一。我們再次擴大了與 BitSight 的合作夥伴關係，將其約 250,000 個實體的網路資料和分數整合到 Orbis 中。這使我們的客戶能夠更好地了解網路風險。

We also have several exciting product launches across Decision Solutions. So in banking, we launched a new module in CreditLens that will integrate a bank's own loan-level data with Moody's content. And this portfolio module really provides a dynamic view of a bank's loan portfolio by monitoring and measuring performance and providing early warning signals.

我們也在決策解決方案領域推出了幾款令人興奮的產品。因此，在銀行業，我們在 CreditLens 中推出了一個新模組，它將銀行自己的貸款級別數據與穆迪的內容整合在一起。此投資組合模組透過監控和衡量績效並提供預警訊號，真正提供了銀行貸款組合的動態視圖。

We're also integrating RMS's physical and transition risk models with our proprietary ESG and climate data into a range of banking solutions. And that is empowering our customers to make better, more informed decisions around lending, portfolio management, stress testing and regulatory reporting. And these are some of the original synergies that we envisioned with the RMS acquisition. So it's great to see this in practice.

我們還將 RMS 的實體和轉型風險模型與我們專有的 ESG 和氣候數據整合到一系列銀行解決方案中。這使我們的客戶能夠在貸款、投資組合管理、壓力測試和監管報告方面做出更好、更明智的決策。這些是我們透過收購 RMS 所設想的一些最初的協同效應。所以很高興在實踐中看到這一點。

And speaking of RMS, I was in Europe last month at a major insurance industry gathering with a bunch of CEOs and Chief Risk Officers. And I again came away very excited about what we're doing with the industry. Together with BitSight, we recently launched the Moody's RMS Cyber Industry Steering Group with two major market players, Munich Re and Gallagher. And we're also partnering with Lloyd's of London to develop a carbon emissions accounting platform for their ecosystem.

說到 RMS，我上個月在歐洲參加了大型保險業聚會，與會者包括一群執行長和首席風險長。我再次對我們在這個行業所做的事情感到非常興奮。我們最近與 BitSight 一起，與慕尼黑再保險公司和加拉格爾這兩家主要市場參與者共同成立了穆迪 RMS 網路產業指導小組。我們也與倫敦勞合社合作，為其生態系統開發碳排放核算平台。

Now in addition to these recent product launches and initiatives, we're continuing to leverage GenAI across our organization. And as you heard at our Innovation Open House last month, our colleagues are taking a really active and hands-on approach in innovating and driving change. In fact, over 70% of our people have used our in-house CoPilot tool.

現在，除了這些最近的產品發布和舉措之外，我們還在整個組織中繼續利用 GenAI。正如您上個月在我們的創新開放日所聽到的那樣，我們的同事正在採取非常積極和實踐的方法來創新和推動變革。事實上，我們超過 70% 的員工都曾使用過我們內部的 CoPilot 工具。

And that includes for things like coding, preparing a report or improving an internal process. And this adoption is also reinforcing our early-mover advantage as we're now benefiting from an internal feedback loop. And that's allowing us to share learnings from our own GenAI journey with our customers.

這包括編碼、準備報告或改進內部流程等。這種採用也增強了我們的先發優勢，因為我們現在正從內部回饋循環中受益。這使我們能夠與客戶分享我們自己的 GenAI 旅程中的經驗教訓。

And speaking of customers, we've been engaging extensively with customers around our GenAI strategy, including the relevance of our curated and proprietary data and research and our approach to data integrity and security. And in particular, since July, we've demoed our Research Assistant, as I said, with a number of our customers. And nearly every one of these customers believes that this product will have meaningful benefits for both their productivity and their insight.

說到客戶，我們一直圍繞著 GenAI 策略與客戶進行廣泛接觸，包括我們策劃的專有資料和研究的相關性以及我們的資料完整性和安全性方法。特別是，正如我所說，自 7 月以來，我們已經向許多客戶展示了我們的研究助理。幾乎每一位客戶都相信該產品將為他們的生產力和洞察力帶來有意義的好處。

We're also revving up the work that we've been doing as part of our partnership with Microsoft and leveraging their secure Azure OpenAI Service. We're building new functionality and content sets and entitlement capabilities into Research Assistant. We're also continuing to expand the ways that we leverage Microsoft Teams to collaborate internally. And I think importantly, we're seeking to expand our joint go-to-market opportunities, broadening the appeal of this partnership to new customers and market segments.

作為與 Microsoft 合作的一部分，我們也正在加快我們一直在做的工作，並利用他們安全的 Azure OpenAI 服務。我們正在研究助理中建立新的功能和內容集以及權利能力。我們也持續擴展利用 Microsoft Teams 進行內部協作的方式。我認為重要的是，我們正在尋求擴大我們聯合進入市場的機會，擴大這種合作關係對新客戶和細分市場的吸引力。

And that includes creating Teams plug-ins that will be available to Microsoft's 300 million monthly users and infusing Moody's content into their Dynamics and Power Platforms to enable CRM and workflow integrations. We're also continuing to explore migrating our content sets to Microsoft Fabric to enable entitlement and delivery of content and insights to our shared customers. So really taken together, I'd say we're very energized by the progress we've made. And we're excited about the opportunities that lie ahead.

其中包括創建可供 Microsoft 3 億每月用戶使用的 Teams 插件，以及將 Moody 的內容注入其 Dynamics 和 Power Platform 中以實現 CRM 和工作流程整合。我們也持續探索將我們的內容集遷移到 Microsoft Fabric，以便為我們的共享客戶提供內容和見解的授權和交付。總的來說，我想說我們對所取得的進展感到非常振奮。我們對未來的機會感到興奮。

In addition to Microsoft, we're working closely with other leading cloud and software players, leveraging our respective strengths to deliver new and innovative GenAI solutions. And partnerships can take many forms. It can include joint product development, joint go-to-market activities or direct commercial opportunities. And to help maximize this opportunity, we've developed a strategy and a framework and a team for third-party partnerships.

除了 Microsoft 之外，我們還與其他領先的雲端和軟體廠商密切合作，利用各自的優勢提供新的創新 GenAI 解決方案。夥伴關係可以採取多種形式。它可以包括聯合產品開發、聯合上市活動或直接商業機會。為了幫助最大限度地利用這一機會，我們制定了第三方合作夥伴關係的策略、框架和團隊。

I think a good example of this is the work we announced earlier this week with Google. And through this partnership, Moody's and Google Cloud are going to explore creating LLMs and AI applications specifically to help financial professionals perform faster and deeper analysis of financial reports and disclosures and other materials. So we're certainly excited to be at the cutting edge of GenAI innovation with some leading partners.

我認為這方面的一個很好的例子是我們本週早些時候宣布與Google合作的工作。透過此次合作，穆迪和 Google Cloud 將探索創建法學碩士和人工智慧應用程序，專門幫助金融專業人士對財務報告、披露及其他材料進行更快、更深入的分析。因此，我們當然很高興能夠與一些領先的合作夥伴一起走在 GenAI 創新的前沿。

In recent quarters, we've been spotlighting one of the three cloud-based SaaS businesses within Decision Solutions. And so I want to cap off that series, if you will, with KYC. And unlike banking and insurance, which are obviously industry-specific, KYC is relevant to all of our customer base. And as I said before, a really important objective for many of our customers is to have a better understanding of who they are doing business with, whether it's making a loan, underwriting an insurance policy, onboarding a customer or monitoring a supplier.

最近幾個季度，我們一直在關注決策解決方案中三個基於雲端的 SaaS 業務之一。如果你願意的話，我想用 KYC 來結束這個系列。與明顯針對特定行業的銀行業和保險業不同，KYC 與我們所有的客戶群相關。正如我之前所說，對於我們的許多客戶來說，一個真正重要的目標是更好地了解他們與誰做生意，無論是發放貸款、承保保險單、吸引客戶還是監控供應商。

And over the years, we have tried to be very thoughtful about how we have added to our capabilities to build a business that, as I said earlier, is generating over $300 million in ARR and growing at 18%. And two significant acquisitions that some of you ask about from time-to-time, and that's BvD and RDC, really foundational elements of our KYC solutions. And they have both outperformed their original acquisition targets.

多年來，我們一直努力深思熟慮如何增強我們的能力，以打造一家業務，正如我之前所說，ARR 收入超過 3 億美元，並且成長率為 18%。你們中的一些人不時詢問的兩項重要收購是 BvD 和 RDC，它們是我們 KYC 解決方案的真正基礎要素。他們的表現都超越了最初的收購目標。

And there are several thematic drivers behind the growth of the KYC business. Specifically, I would call out the digitization and automation of what are very manual and expensive in-house compliance processes; the growth in online transactions and payments; and also the need for greater breadth and precision amidst new and increasing regulations; and all of this combines with the need for better analytics and insights, again not just about customers but more broadly, who companies are doing business with.

KYC 業務成長背後有幾個主題驅動因素。具體來說，我會指出非常手動且昂貴的內部合規流程的數位化和自動化；線上交易和支付的成長；以及在新的和不斷增加的法規中需要更大的廣度和精確度；所有這些都與更好的分析和洞察的需求相結合，不僅僅是關於客戶，更廣泛的是，公司與誰開展業務。

So by combining our proprietary data on companies and people with analytics and through a modern cloud-based SaaS platform, we're delivering solutions for our customers in some pretty compelling ways. And these solutions use traditional AI, you've heard us talk about that on this call before, that includes machine learning, natural language processing and integrating data on over 470 million public and private companies with more than 1.7 billion ownership links, profiles on over 20 million politically exposed people and sanctions in adverse media. And recently, based on customer feedback, we've also added an ESG scores and credit scores.

因此，透過將公司和人員的專有數據與分析相結合，並透過基於雲端的現代 SaaS 平台，我們以一些非常引人注目的方式為客戶提供解決方案。這些解決方案使用傳統人工智慧，您之前已經在這次電話會議上聽到我們談論過這一點，其中包括機器學習、自然語言處理以及整合超過4.7 億家上市和私營公司的數據，這些公司擁有超過17 億個所有權連結、超過2000萬政治公眾人物和不利媒體的製裁。最近，根據客戶回饋，我們還添加了 ESG 評分和信用評分。

So we offer access to our KYC tools and content in several different ways. And that includes via data feeds or APIs into customers' in-house systems. It also includes full end-to-end workflow with proprietary and third-party data that supports customer acquisition and onboarding, screening, monitoring and third-party risk management processes.

因此，我們以多種不同的方式提供對 KYC 工具和內容的存取。這包括透過資料饋送或 API 進入客戶的內部系統。它還包括完整的端到端工作流程，包含專有和第三方數據，支援客戶獲取和入職、篩選、監控和第三方風險管理流程。

And the front-end workflow software is what we acquired when we bought PassFort Pack in 2021. So that moved us from being just a data provider to being a full-service provider in this space. And that combination is increasingly being recognized across the industry, including the recent Chartis awards, as the only vendor that's identified as a market leader for both data and workflow.

前端工作流程軟體是我們在 2021 年購買 PassFort Pack 時獲得的。因此，這使我們從單純的資料提供者轉變為該領域的全方位服務提供者。這種組合越來越受到整個行業的認可，包括最近的 Chartis 獎項，成為唯一被認定為數據和工作流程市場領導者的供應商。

We're also seeing significant growth outside of the financial sector. And we are investing to enhance the relevance of our offerings in the corporate and government space. That includes our recent launch of something called Sanctions360. That enables customers to efficiently and effectively comply with regulatory requirements regarding their customers, counterparties and suppliers by better understanding the implications of both sanctions and sanctions by extension.

我們也看到金融領域以外的領域也出現了顯著成長。我們正在投資以增強我們的產品在企業和政府領域的相關性。其中包括我們最近推出的 Sanctions360。透過更了解制裁和延伸制裁的影響，客戶能夠有效率、有效地遵守有關其客戶、交易對手和供應商的監管要求。

And our ability to build solutions that reach a broad set of customers is really a key element of our land-and-expand strategy. In fact, approximately 25% of MA's overall new customer ARR growth in the last year came from KYC. And generating these new relationships then provides additional opportunities for us to cross-sell from other parts of MA.

我們建構覆蓋廣泛客戶的解決方案的能力確實是我們土地擴張策略的關鍵要素。事實上，去年 MA 整體新客戶 ARR 成長的約 25% 來自 KYC。建立這些新的關係為我們提供了從馬薩諸塞州其他地區進行交叉銷售的額外機會。

Likewise, our existing customer base also provides some very significant runway for future growth. Currently, only about 20% or about 3,000 of MA's customers buy one of our KYC solutions. And that represents an important cross-sell opportunity for our remaining 13,000-or-so customers.

同樣，我們現有的客戶群也為未來的成長提供了一些非常重要的跑道。目前，只有約 20% 或約 3,000 名 MA 客戶購買我們的 KYC 解決方案之一。這對我們剩餘的 13,000 名左右客戶來說是一個重要的交叉銷售機會。

Now turning to MIS. In the third quarter, issuance was consistent with normal seasonal patterns. I'd say that activity was relatively subdued in July and August. And we certainly saw some stronger volumes in September. Growth was driven by leveraged finance on the back of what was the strongest leverage loan volume since the first quarter of 2022.

現在轉向MIS。第三季的發行量與正常的季節性規律一致。我想說七月和八月的活動相對減弱。我們確實在 9 月看到了一些更強勁的銷售。成長是由槓桿融資推動的，槓桿貸款量創 2022 年第一季以來最強勁的水平。

And that, coupled with elevated activity from infrequent banking issuers and an improvement in project and public finance issuance versus the prior year, all of that contributed to a favorable mix. As a result, while global issuance was up about 12%, MIS transactional revenue was up 31% versus last year. And together with 5% recurring revenue growth, MIS revenue grew 18% for the quarter.

再加上不頻繁的銀行發行人的活動增加以及項目和公共融資發行量較上一年有所改善，所有這些都促成了有利的組合。因此，雖然全球發行量成長了約 12%，但 MIS 交易收入較去年成長了 31%。加上 5% 的經常性收入成長，本季 MIS 營收成長了 18%。

And as we head into the fourth quarter, I'd say the general market sentiment remains a bit fragile. We've updated our guidance to reflect an expectation of modestly lower issuance volumes in the fourth quarter, particularly in investment-grade and structured finance, than we had been anticipating back in July.

當我們進入第四季時，我想說，整體市場情緒仍然有點脆弱。我們更新了指導意見，以反映第四季度發行量（特別是投資級和結構性融資）的發行量將略低於我們 7 月的預期。

And the heightened geopolitical turmoil, combined with macroeconomic concerns around a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, will continue to drive some volatility and uncertainty around yields and spreads. And these conditions are likely to be particularly impactful on opportunistic investment-grade issuers. And that's a reason that we're lowering the outlook for investment-grade issuance to approximately 25% growth for the full year 2023.

地緣政治動盪加劇，加上對長期較高利率環境的宏觀經濟擔憂，將繼續推動殖利率和利差出現一定程度的波動和不確定性。這些條件可能對機會主義投資等級發行人特別有影響。這就是我們將 2023 年全年投資等級發行成長前景下調至 25% 左右的原因。

We also continue to see the knock-on impacts of lower asset generation on the structured finance sector. And so we're updating our outlook to decline by around 25% compared to the prior year. So these two forecast updates result in an overall revision to our expectation for issuance for the year. And we now expect issuance growth to be in the low to mid-single-digit range in 2023 and MIS to grow in the mid- to high single-digit range.

我們也持續看到資產生成減少對結構性融資產業的連鎖影響。因此，我們更新了我們的預期，與前一年相比下降了 25% 左右。因此，這兩次預測更新導致我們對今年發行的預期進行了整體修正。我們現在預計 2023 年發行量​​成長將在中低個位數範圍內，MIS 將在中高個位數範圍內成長。

So while there are some headwinds to accelerating issuance growth in the near term, refunding walls continue to grow. And they are a key factor supporting medium-term issuance growth. And our annual study on refinancing, which we, as I mentioned, just recently published, captures nonfinancial corporate maturities in both the U.S. and EMEA. And we look at the next 4 years as an aggregate figure, and with approximately $4.4 trillion coming due in the next 4 years, that's up by about 10% versus last year's study. And you can see that, I believe, in the appendix in our supplemental materials.

因此，儘管短期內加速發行成長存在一些阻力，但退款牆仍在繼續擴大。它們是支持中期發行成長的關鍵因素。正如我所提到的，我們最近剛發布了關於再融資的年度研究報告，該研究報告涵蓋了美國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的非金融企業到期日。我們將未來 4 年視為一個總體數字，未來 4 年到期的金額約為 4.4 兆美元，比去年的研究增加了約 10%。我相信，您可以在我們補充資料的附錄中看到這一點。

I also want to spotlight the U.S. in particular. Obviously, this is the largest of all the global bond markets. And looking out over 5 years, and that's the length of the U.S. study, the aggregate forward maturity wall grew by about 21% compared to the study -- last year's study. And the main contributor to this is leveraged finance, which grew approximately 27%. So that's certainly going to be helpful to future mix over the coming years.

我還想特別關注美國。顯然，這是全球債券市場中最大的。展望 5 年（即美國研究的長度），與去年的研究相比，總遠期期限牆增加了約 21%。其中的主要貢獻者是槓桿融資，成長了約 27%。因此，這肯定會對未來幾年的混音有所幫助。

So forward maturities continue to provide support for future issuance and continue to be an important part of the MIS long-term growth algorithm. And I would also say that overall corporate debt velocity, which is total corporate issuance as a percent of total corporate debt outstanding, remains pretty far below historical averages. So that implies the potential for pent-up issuance demand in the future.

因此，遠期債券繼續為未來的發行提供支持，並繼續成為 MIS 長期成長演算法的重要組成部分。我還想說，整體公司債務週轉率（即公司發行總額占公司未償債務總額的百分比）仍然遠低於歷史平均值。因此，這意味著未來被壓抑的發行需求的潛力。

So on that note, I'm going to pause here. I'm happy to open the call for questions. Operator?

關於這一點，我要在這裡暫停一下。我很高興開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

I was hoping you could talk about the refinancing wall that you've just addressed and how you're seeing your customers manage through the higher-for-longer rate environment. Are they delaying refinancing right now? Is more getting pushed into 2024? And when you look at those potential customers who may refi, any concerns about some of that debt not getting refi-ed that maybe those companies could be under some stress?

我希望您能談談您剛剛解決的再融資牆問題，以及您如何看待您的客戶在更高、更長期的利率環境中進行管理。他們現在正在延後再融資嗎？更多的工作會延到 2024 年嗎？當你觀察那些可能進行再融資的潛在客戶時，是否擔心某些債務沒有再融資，也許這些公司可能會面臨一些壓力？

Heather, yes, I'd say that, first of all, just in terms of how our customers are thinking about financing and tapping the market, and you've probably heard me say this in the past, volatility is really the biggest challenge, I think, for a CFO or a Treasurer. At the end of September, we saw a little bit of that with the jobs print and questions about rates and how much higher for how much longer. Certainly, geopolitical events can also erode confidence.

希瑟，是的，我想說，首先，就我們的客戶如何考慮融資和開拓市場而言，你過去可能聽過我這樣說過，波動性確實是最大的挑戰，我認為，對於首席財務官或財務主管來說。九月底，我們在招募資訊中看到了一些這樣的情況，以及有關費率以及上漲多少、持續多久的問題。當然，地緣政治事件也會削弱信心。

I don't think we are in a risk-off mode at the moment. I would say there is some caution. But I don't think we are in a risk-off mode. And in fact, where we see the most leveraged issuers, which is bank loans, is where we're actually seeing some issuance at the moment. So that's -- I think that's good.

我不認為我們目前處於避險模式。我想說的是，有一些謹慎。但我不認為我們處於避險模式。事實上，我們看到槓桿率最高的發行人，即銀行貸款，目前我們實際上看到了一些發行。所以我認為這很好。

When I think about the maturity walls, Heather, it's interesting. Overall, they're up about 10% between the U.S. and Europe. If I zero in on investment-grade maturities, they're up about 12%. And one interesting thing here, Heather -- and by the way, the U.S. study is 5 years and the Europe is 4, so I don't mean to confuse everybody.

當我想到成熟牆時，希瑟，這很有趣。總體而言，美國和歐洲的價格上漲了約 10%。如果我將投資等級到期日歸零，它們會上漲約 12%。這裡有一件有趣的事情，希瑟——順便說一句，美國的研究是 5 年，歐洲是 4 年，所以我並不是想讓大家感到困惑。

But when I look at the U.S. study, and we'll share these reports with folks if they're interested after the call, the share of U.S. investment-grade maturities within the first 3 years of that 5-year study has increased. So it's up to the low 60s percent from the kind of high 50s this time last year. And I think what that means and the reason for that is that companies have, in some cases, opted for shorter financing tenors.

但是，當我查看美國的研究時，如果人們在電話會議後感興趣，我們將與他們分享這些報告，在這項為期5 年的研究的前3 年內，美國投資級到期日的份額有所增加。因此，這一比例從去年這個時候的 50% 左右上升到了 60% 左右。我認為這意味著什麼以及原因是公司在某些情況下選擇了較短的融資期限。

And also, I think higher rates have dissuaded some refinancing, so -- and it's interesting to look at what's going with average tenors. As far as the last part of your question, do I think that some issuers may opt not to refinance? I think for many folks, that will be difficult to do. So there may be select companies that have the cash to be able to do that. But I don't think that will be a widespread trend.

而且，我認為較高的利率阻止了一些再融資，因此，看看平均期限的情況很有趣。至於你問題的最後一部分，我是否認為有些發行人可能會選擇不再融資？我想對很多人來說，這很難做到。因此，可能會有一些特定的公司擁有足夠的現金來做到這一點。但我認為這不會成為一種普遍趨勢。

We'll take our next question from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行 Faiza Alwy 提出的下一個問題。

Rob, I wanted to stick with issuance and ask you, you said that current trends are well below sort of normal levels. And I'm curious if you've evolved your view in terms of what normal issuance might look like in the current higher-for-longer rate environment.

羅布，我想堅持發行並問你，你說當前的趨勢遠低於正常水平。我很好奇，在當前長期利率較高的環境下，您對正常發行的看法是否有所改變。

Yes. As I said, a couple of things that lead us to believe that there is some, I'd say, pent-up demand. I mentioned this concept of corporate debt velocity. That's just the amount of issuance over -- the amount of corporate issuance over the amount of corporate debt outstanding. And that's really at a decade-plus low and continues to be this year. So that leads us to believe that there is further opportunity for issuance. I talked about the refinancing walls. And over the medium term, they look promising.

是的。正如我所說，有幾件事讓我們相信存在著一些被壓抑的需求。我提到了公司債務週轉率的概念。這只是發行量除以公司發行量除以未償公司債務金額。這確實是十多年來的最低點，今年仍然如此。因此，這使我們相信還有進一步發行的機會。我談到了再融資牆。從中期來看，它們看起來很有希望。

The other thing I think that tends to be a catalyst for issuance is M&A. And it's been a pretty spotty year for M&A. And it's about what we had expected. But private equity firms have a tremendous amount of dry powder. Somewhere, I think the other day, I saw they have $2 trillion to invest. I think M&A is probably not a Q4 story at this point. I think that's something that we're going to look into 2024 to see if that can be a catalyst for issuance. So I do think there are some things that at some point can change the trajectory of issuance.

我認為往往成為發行催化劑的另一件事是併購。對於併購來說，今年是非常不穩定的一年。這與我們的預期相符。但私募股權公司擁有大量的乾火藥。我想有一天，我在某個地方看到他們有 2 兆美元可供投資。我認為目前併購可能不是第四季的故事。我認為我們將在 2024 年研究這個問題，看看是否可以成為發行的催化劑。所以我確實認為有些事情在某些時候可以改變發行的軌跡。

We'll take our next question from Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀亞歷克斯·克拉姆 (Alex Kramm) 提出的下一個問題。

Just staying on the ratings side for a minute, can you talk about how your commercial interactions have changed at all with issuers in this? Again, everybody is using a higher-for-longer environment here. I guess, what are you doing to drive, I guess, new issuers? And I'm asking from the perspective also -- and this is very anecdotal.

在評級方面停留一分鐘，您能談談您與發行人的商業互動發生了怎樣的變化嗎？同樣，每個人都在這裡使用更高、更長的環境。我想，你在做什麼來推動新的發行人？我也是從這個角度來問的──這是非常軼事。

But I've heard in Europe, for example, there are some companies that are, actually given the higher interest rate environment that they haven't seen in many decades, are considering ratings for the first time. So again, maybe anecdotal but just wondering what you're seeing to, I guess, feed to -- continue to feed the business outside of the, I guess, macro environment.

但我聽說在歐洲，例如，有些公司實際上考慮到幾十年來從未見過的較高利率環境，正在首次考慮評級。再說一次，也許是軼事，但我想知道你會看到什麼，繼續為宏觀環境之外的業務提供支援。

Yes, Alex, I would say two things. So we have really active engagement with issuers on both sides of the ratings business. One, as you'd expect, very active engagement with the analysts, especially around -- especially in periods like this, where there's some economic uncertainty and lots of questions from investors, lots of engagement with our analysts.

是的，亞歷克斯，我想說兩件事。因此，我們與評級業務雙方的發行人都進行了非常積極的接觸。一，正如你所期望的，與分析師非常積極的接觸，尤其是在這樣的時期，存在一些經濟不確定性，投資者提出很多問題，與我們的分析師進行大量接觸。

And that's why having very experienced analysts is so important so that we can communicate effectively with our issuers, understand their credit stories and be able to communicate those to the investors. And that's a big part of value proposition.

這就是為什麼擁有經驗豐富的分析師如此重要，這樣我們就可以與發行人進行有效溝通，了解他們的信用故事，並能夠將這些訊息傳達給投資者。這是價值主張的重要組成部分。

But second, Alex, I might also point to we've tried to broaden out the product suite over the years in MIS so that we can engage with not just issuers in the public markets but folks who may be thinking about coming to market. So a number of years ago, in fact, back when I was in MIS, we developed something called a Private Monitored Rating.

但其次，亞歷克斯，我也可能會指出，多年來我們一直在努力擴大管理資訊系統的產品套件，以便我們不僅可以與公開市場的發行人互動，還可以與可能考慮進入市場的人互動。所以幾年前，事實上，當我在管理資訊系統工作時，我們開發了一種稱為私人監控評級的東西。

And that was a great tool to be able to develop an analytical relationship on a private basis with a company who wanted to develop that relationship and understand what their credit profile looks like and also give them the opportunity then to flip that into a public rating if they decide they want to tap the markets when there's a window.

這是一個很好的工具，能夠在私人基礎上與一家想要發展這種關係的公司建立分析關係，了解他們的信用狀況，並讓他們有機會將其轉變為公共評級，如果當有機會時，他們決定要進軍市場。

So that's -- we have a commercial team that's probably between 150 and 200 people around the world, very engaged with not only our existing issuers but also with companies who may be thinking about getting a rating either public or private. So pretty active engagement.

因此，我們的商業團隊可能在世界各地擁有 150 至 200 名員工，不僅與我們現有的發行人密切合作，還與可能考慮獲得公開或私人評級的公司密切合作。非常積極的參與。

But not seeing a change there, given the higher rate environment, that was really my question.

但鑑於利率較高的環境，沒有看到任何變化，這確實是我的問題。

No. I mean, Alex, in fairness, I think the first-time mandates, when you look at that, that's obviously come down from the highs of 2020 and '21. And that's, I'd say -- we often say it's pretty closely aligned to the leveraged finance markets. But we're still looking at something in the range of 500 FTMs for the year. And as I said, lots of engagement. In fact, that number started to tick up this last quarter.

不。我的意思是，亞歷克斯，公平地說，我認為首次授權，當你看到這一點時，這顯然是從 2020 年和 21 年的高點下降的。我想說的是——我們經常說它與槓桿金融市場非常接近。但我們仍在關註今年 500 個 FTM 範圍內的情況。正如我所說，大量的參與。事實上，這個數字在上個季度開始上升。

We'll take our next question from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們將回答安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask a little bit more on the monetization plans for Research Assistant. I think you mentioned it would be an add-on cost. Is there any additional color you can give there in terms of maybe the magnitude or the potential opportunity?

我想多問一些有關研究助理的貨幣化計劃的問題。我想你提到這將是一項附加費用。您是否可以在規模或潛在機會方面給出任何額外的信息？

And then maybe relatedly, of the 150-plus customers who previewed the tool, is the expectation that the vast majority of them would opt in? Or what kind of success rate do you have within the customer base that did have access to the tool already?

也許與此相關的是，在預覽工具的 150 多名客戶中，是否期望絕大多數人都會選擇使用？或者，在已經可以使用該工具的客戶群中，您的成功率是多少？

Yes. These are all great questions. And I want to give you answers to all of them, but I'm probably going to be able to give you better answers in the next quarter. So I guess, the way we are thinking about it is again we're trying to preview this with our customers so that we can get feedback so that they can iterate the product, so we can think about how we want to price and package that.

是的。這些都是很好的問題。我想給你所有這些問題的答案，但我可能會在下個季度給你更好的答案。所以我想，我們考慮的方式是再次嘗試與客戶一起預覽，以便我們可以獲得反饋，以便他們可以迭代產品，這樣我們就可以考慮如何定價和包裝該產品。

I expect that many of our users will get some basic level of functionality. And other users will opt in for full functionality. And as I said, we envision that as being an add-on. We're getting ready to go into our annual renewal cycle. So we'll have a very good sense on the next quarter call. We'll be able to give you some update on what that take-up looks like. And then you're going to see that then in our -- in how we talk about our digital insights business for -- prospects for that business for full year 2024.

我希望我們的許多用戶都能獲得一些基本的功能。其他用戶將選擇使用完整功能。正如我所說，我們將其視為一個附加元件。我們正準備進入年度更新周期。因此，我們將對下個季度的電話會議有很好的判斷力。我們將能夠向您提供有關該接收情況的最新資訊。然後，您將在我們如何談論我們的數位洞察業務中看到該業務 2024 年全年的前景。

Over -- I'd say, part of the vision here is we also want to be able to expose those customers to different content sets than they might have access to today. So imagine that the initial customer is one of our CreditView customers. They're already a customer, and they decided they want to opt in to the full Research Assistant functionality. But they may not be a customer of other content sets, so let's say, some of our climate and physical risk content.

結束了——我想說，這裡的部分願景是我們還希望能夠向這些客戶展示與他們今天可能訪問的不同的內容集。因此，想像一下最初的客戶是我們的 CreditView 客戶之一。他們已經是客戶，並且決定選擇使用完整的研究助理功能。但他們可能不是其他內容集的客戶，例如說我們的一些氣候和自然風險內容。

We will be working over the course of the next year, and we're already working on this and we'll be working on this, to be able to provide access to customers for content sets that they find valuable to effectively kind of comingle, right? So when I ask for a question about credit and I want to understand the impact of extreme weather events on the credit profile of the company, we'll be able to return that answer.

我們將在明年的過程中開展工作，我們已經在這方面開展工作，我們將繼續努力，以便能夠為客戶提供他們認為有價值的內容集的訪問權限，以有效地進行混合，正確的？因此，當我詢問有關信用的問題並且想了解極端天氣事件對公司信用狀況的影響時，我們將能夠返回該答案。

So that's why you heard me also mention the importance of entitlements. That's going to be very important for us to get that sorted out across the platform so that we can entitle customers to new content sets and ultimately monetize all that. So again, I know -- on the next earnings call, I'll be able to give you a little bit more insight into the traction that we've gotten with our customers.

這就是為什麼你聽到我也提到權利的重要性。對我們來說，在整個平台上解決這個問題非常重要，這樣我們就可以讓客戶獲得新的內容集並最終將所有這些貨幣化。所以，我知道，在下一次財報電話會議上，我將能夠讓您更深入地了解我們對客戶的吸引力。

We'll take our next question from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利托尼卡普蘭 (Toni Kaplan) 提出的下一個問題。

Just given that we're in late October now, and this is usually the call where you give some color on how you're thinking about '24 issuance, Rob, maybe just give us your initial thoughts on sort of what you're seeing and how you're thinking about '24 just shaping up?

考慮到我們現在已經是 10 月下旬了，這通常是您在電話會議中對 24 號發行的想法發表一些看法，羅布，也許只是向我們提供您對所看到的內容的初步想法您對'24的發展有何看法？

Thanks, Toni. Yes, happy to do that. And I'll give you some -- I'll talk a little bit about what's on our minds. And obviously, on the next call, we'll take you through the guidance for 2024. But first, I guess, I would say we expect some further economic deceleration in the U.S., Europe and China. But I think probably a reasonable probability that we achieve kind of that mythical soft landing and avoid a recession.

謝謝，托尼。是的，很高興這樣做。我會給你一些——我會談談我們的想法。顯然，在下一次電話會議上，我們將向您介紹 2024 年的指導意見。但首先，我想，我們預計美國、歐洲和中國的經濟將進一步減速。但我認為，我們實現那種神話般的軟著陸並避免經濟衰退的可能性可能是合理的。

Inflation has moderated. There's still some uncertainty over rates. I think generally, the market is concluding that we are about at peak rates. Obviously, there's some headline risk though around inflation prints and job reports. Again, you kind of see what happened at the end of September. And that's important in terms of the market getting comfortable that we are, in fact, at the kind of the end of the tightening cycle.

通貨膨脹已經放緩。利率仍存在一些不確定性。我認為總體而言，市場得出的結論是我們正處於峰值利率。顯然，通膨報告和就業報告存在一些頭條新聞風險。再次，你可以看到九月底發生的事情。事實上，這對於讓市場感到舒適來說很重要，因為我們實際上正處於緊縮週期的尾聲。

I would say that we expect default rates to pick up in 2024 but really only modestly above long-term averages. And if that's the case, spreads should be relatively well behaved because they're pretty tightly correlated to default rates. I mean, you heard what I said about M&A. I think that's really more of a 2024 story.

我想說的是，我們預計 2024 年違約率將會上升，但實際上僅略高於長期平均。如果是這樣的話，利差應該會表現得相對良好，因為它們與違約率密切相關。我的意思是，你聽到了我所說的關於併購的內容。我認為這更像是一個 2024 年的故事。

We'll have a better sense for that as we round into the beginning of the year. And we've got some pretty sound structural support from the things that I talked about. So we'll get into more of that on the next earnings call. But hopefully, that gives you a sense of some of the things that are factoring into how we're thinking about 2024.

當我們進入今年年初時，我們會對這一點有更好的認識。我們從我談到的事情中得到了一些相當健全的結構性支持。因此，我們將在下一次財報電話會議上詳細討論這一點。但希望這能讓您了解我們如何看待 2024 年的一些因素。

We'll take our next question from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe moving back to the MA segment. The results in R&I and D&I stood out to us and were pretty encouraging. So I was wondering if you can maybe go over any of the specific products, verticals or solutions that were driving some of the strength that we saw there.

也許回到 MA 部分。 R&I 和 D&I 的結果讓我們印象深刻，非常令人鼓舞。所以我想知道您是否可以回顧一下推動我們在那裡看到的一些優勢的任何特定產品、垂直行業或解決方案。

Thanks, Scott. Good to have you on the call. So yes, we continue to see some pretty strong both demand and also utilization. That's important, right? We've talked about the utilization of our products is very important to the overall kind of value capture but around our economic data and our research and our models. I mentioned that we have just recently expanded our coverage within CreditView. And that is integrating the content from Orbis, that company database, and also our credit score.

謝謝，斯科特。很高興您接聽電話。所以，是的，我們繼續看到需求和利用率都相當強勁。這很重要，對吧？我們已經談到，我們產品的利用對於整體價值獲取非常重要，但圍繞著我們的經濟數據、我們的研究和我們的模型。我曾提到我們最近剛剛擴大了 CreditView 的覆蓋範圍。這就是整合 Orbis 的內容、該公司的資料庫以及我們的信用評分。

So we -- a while back, we started to provide credit scores and effectively every company that is in that giant database. And we have been integrating that into a variety of our different solutions. And we've gotten some very nice take-up from that. I would also say that, again in times where you've got economic uncertainty, there continues to be a good bit of demand for economic data and content and ability to kind of forecast and plan. And we have continued to see that.

因此，不久前，我們開始提供信用評分，並有效地提供這個巨大資料庫中的每家公司。我們一直將其整合到各種不同的解決方案中。我們從中得到了一些非常好的回饋。我還想說，在經濟存在不確定性的時期，對經濟數據和內容以及預測和規劃能力的需求仍然很大。我們繼續看到這一點。

We've also seen some interest coming in from some of the government sector. So the growth there has been maybe even a little bit higher than from some of our other segments. So all in all, a number of things that are contributing to -- allowing us to keep powering along in terms of growth in that segment. And going forward, we've got the coverage expansion in Research Assistant that I think will provide future runway for growth.

我們也看到一些政府部門對此產生了一些興趣。因此，那裡的成長甚至可能比我們其他一些細分市場的成長還要高一些。總而言之，有許多因素正在促成——使我們能夠繼續推動該領域的成長。展望未來，我們已經擴大了研究助理的覆蓋範圍，我認為這將為未來的成長提供跑道。

We'll take our next question from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

我們將回答 Craig Huber 和 Huber Research Partners 提出的下一個問題。

Rob, what's your updated thoughts on the private credit market out there? And how significant do you think it could be for your ratings business here? And is there an area here where this could potentially be a headwind to ratings growth if it's not picked up, the stuff there is not rated? I do have a housekeeping question, if I could throw that in there. What's your incentive comp for the first 3 quarters, please?

羅布，您對私人信貸市場的最新想法是什麼？您認為這對您的評級業務有多重要？這裡是否有一個領域，如果不被重視，這可能會成為收視率成長的阻力？那裡的東西沒有評級？我確實有一個內務管理問題，如果我可以把它放進去的話。請問前三季的激勵補償是多少？

Yes. So I'm going to let Caroline get to that in just a second. But let me take the private credit question first. And Craig, we've talked about this a bit on the calls before. And there are places where you could see this as a headwind, where companies decide that they're going to tap the private credit market rather than the public markets. We have seen more and more cases where companies have done that. And they've actually come into the private -- into the public markets. That makes sense. Because in general, the public markets tend to be cheaper than the private markets.

是的。所以我會讓卡洛琳馬上談到這一點。但讓我先談談私人信貸問題。克雷格，我們之前在電話中討論過這個問題。在某些地方，你可能會認為這是一種逆風，公司決定他們將利用私人信貸市場而不是公共市場。我們已經看到越來越多的企業這樣做的案例。他們實際上已經進入私人市場——進入公開市場。這就說得通了。因為一般來說，公共市場往往比私人市場便宜。

So I actually -- when this kind of first came up, and I'd say maybe it might have been a year ago when we first started talking about this in these calls, I've gotten, I'd say, more and more positive on the opportunity for Moody's. And while acknowledging what I just mentioned, there's just a lot of opportunity for us to serve this market. There's a lot of opacity in this market. When you're in times of increasing credit stress, the investors in those markets want to have a better understanding of what the credit risk is of the investments that they're holding.

所以我實際上- 當這種情況第一次出現時，我想說可能是在一年前，當我們第一次開始在這些電話中談論這個問題時，我想說，我得到了越來越多的信息對穆迪的機會持正面態度。在承認我剛才提到的同時，我們有很多機會服務這個市場。這個市場有很多不透明之處。當信用壓力加大時，這些市場的投資者希望更了解他們所持有的投資的信用風險。

And so we've had some really good discussions both with alternative asset providers, so the private credit lenders, as well as investors in their funds. And so we're seeing demand for some form of credit assessment coming from both of those constituents. And I spent a good bit of time actually engaging with the private equity firms and alternative asset managers. And there are just a number of ways that we already work with these firms. They have pretty extensive relationships across the firm. But there are more and more ways that we're continuing to support them.

因此，我們與另類資產提供者、私人信貸機構以及其基金的投資者進行了一些非常好的討論。因此，我們看到這兩個群體對某種形式的信用評估的需求。我花了很多時間與私募股權公司和另類資產管理公司進行實際接觸。我們已經透過多種方式與這些公司合作。他們在整個公司擁有相當廣泛的關係。但我們會透過越來越多的方式繼續支持他們。

So in general, Craig, I actually see this as a net positive for us. It has meant that we have had to think about our product offerings. I mentioned the coverage expansion in CreditView. And importantly -- one important reason we did that is to make it more relevant to that market. We've thought about some of our rating products and assessment tools. So it has led us to think about the product suite and make sure that we're evolving the product suite to meet the needs of what is obviously a growing market.

所以總的來說，克雷格，我實際上認為這對我們來說是一個淨積極的結果。這意味著我們必須考慮我們的產品供應。我提到了 CreditView 的覆蓋範圍擴大。重要的是，我們這樣做的一個重要原因是使其與該市場更加相關。我們考慮了一些評級產品和評估工具。因此，它促使我們思考產品套件，並確保我們不斷改進產品套件，以滿足顯然不斷增長的市場的需求。

So Craig, with regards to incentive comp, our accruals align with our actual and projected financial and operating performance. And we expect incentive comp to be between $370 million and $390 million for the year with approximately $90 million for the fourth quarter. For Q1, it was $89 million. For Q2, it was approximately $100 million. And for Q3, it was approximately $100 million.

因此，克雷格，關於激勵補償，我們的應計費用與我們的實際和預期的財務和營運績效一致。我們預計今年的激勵補償將在 3.7 億至 3.9 億美元之間，其中第四季約為 9,000 萬美元。第一季為 8900 萬美元。第二季約 1 億美元。第三季的銷售額約為 1 億美元。

We'll take our next question from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

我們將回答 Owen Lau 和 Oppenheimer 提出的下一個問題。

So going back to MA, I think the margin was pretty strong at 33.6%. And I know you maintained the margin guidance for MA. But going forward, given that you have been investing into GenAI, how should we think about the sustainability of your margin?

回到 MA，我認為利潤率非常高，達到 33.6%。我知道你們維持了 MA 的保證金指導。但展望未來，鑑於你們一直在投資 GenAI，我們該如何考慮你們利潤的可持續性？

Owen, great question. And just on the margin, maybe I -- just one thing I'll say is I'm not sure I'd get too wound up about a margin in any given quarter. And you've heard us talk about some seasonality in both expenses and the way that revenues can come in. Obviously, it was a good quarter for us. I think I would say that we have really tried to be disciplined across the business and to think about how we are reprioritizing across the business to make sure that we are putting resources against the highest and best opportunities.

歐文，好問題。就利潤而言，也許我——我只想說一件事是，我不確定我是否會對任何特定季度的利潤感到過於緊張。您已經聽過我們談論支出和收入來源方式的季節性。顯然，這對我們來說是一個很好的季度。我想我想說的是，我們確實努力在整個業務範圍內遵守紀律，並思考如何在整個業務範圍內重新確定優先順序，以確保我們將資源用於最高和最好的機會。

And obviously, we have made some investments to date in GenAI. In fact, I was just with our team that is providing our LLM as a Service across the company, it's probably 25 people. Some of those are from different parts of Moody's and some of those are new to Moody's. I guess, what I would say, Owen, is looking forward, I mean, you've heard me talk about we want to lean into growth and invest in growth.

顯然，迄今為止我們已經在 GenAI 上進行了一些投資。事實上，我所在的團隊正在整個公司提供 LLM 即服務，大概有 25 人。其中一些來自穆迪的不同部門，另一些對穆迪來說是新的。歐文，我想，我要說的是展望未來，我的意思是，你已經聽過我談論我們想要傾斜成長並投資於成長。

And one reason that's so important is, in some of these markets, you have literally new customers coming into the market adopting solutions. So we talk about KYC and how that's broadening beyond just meeting regulatory requirements into wanting to understand who you're doing business with, what your supplier risk looks like. That means you have new customers coming into the market. And you've seen our retention rates, pretty similar. Many other players in the market who provide services like this have very robust retention rates. That means those customers are sticky.

如此重要的原因之一是，在其中一些市場中，確實有新客戶進入市場並採用解決方案。因此，我們討論 KYC 以及如何將其從僅僅滿足監管要求擴展到想要了解您與誰開展業務、您的供應商風險是什麼樣的。這意味著您有新客戶進入市場。您也看到了我們的保留率，非常相似。市場上許多提供此類服務的其他參與者都擁有非常高的保留率。這意味著這些客戶具有黏性。

So once you get that customer, it's hard to dislodge that customer. So while we have a lot of market growth, we want to make sure we invest in the products and the sales distribution to make sure that we get those customer relationships. And then over time, as we continue to build more and more scale, we will have the opportunity to grow the margin. Next year, I guess, the other thing I would say with just GenAI investment, it's early days, right? I mean, yes, I've got a team here I mentioned, but we haven't started putting customers on the products yet.

因此，一旦你獲得了該客戶，就很難驅逐該客戶。因此，雖然我們有很大的市場成長，但我們希望確保對產品和銷售分銷進行投資，以確保我們獲得這些客戶關係。隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續擴大規模，我們將有機會增加利潤。明年，我想，對於 GenAI 投資我想說的另一件事是，現在還處於早期階段，對嗎？我的意思是，是的，我在這裡有一個團隊，但我們還沒有開始讓客戶使用我們的產品。

And so that means that we're going to have growth in our expenses around compute capacity and other things. I imagine we'll continue to be building out kind of our capabilities across the firm next year. But we'll also balance that with making some hard calls and being very disciplined in where we invest across the entire business. So hopefully, that gives you a little feel, Owen.

因此，這意味著我們在計算能力和其他方面的支出將會成長。我想明年我們將繼續在整個公司範圍內增強我們的能力。但我們也會透過做出一些艱難的決定並在整個業務的投資領域中保持嚴格的紀律來平衡這一點。希望這能帶給你一點感覺，歐文。

We'll take our next question from Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行塞思韋伯的下一個問題。

I wanted to actually follow up on that question. The -- I was intrigued by the KYC discussion in your remarks. I think you said 20% of MA customers buy KYC today. I was just wondering, can you just talk to what that trend line has looked like and where you think that could go from like a wallet share perspective?

我想真正跟進這個問題。 - 我對您言論中有關 KYC 的討論很感興趣。我想你說過今天有 20% 的 MA 客戶購買 KYC。我只是想知道，你能談談趨勢線是什麼樣的嗎？你認為從錢包份額的角度來看，趨勢線會走向何方？

And I think you may have touched on this a little bit. But are these customers that are not using your -- are these new wins? Are they customers that aren't using anything today? Or are they conquests? Or just how we should think about that opportunity?

我想你可能已經觸及了這一點。但是，這些不使用您的客戶是否是新的勝利？他們是今天沒有使用任何東西的客戶嗎？或者說它們是征服？或者我們應該如何看待這個機會？

Yes, it's a great question. And this is probably something we're going to be talking with you more about next quarter, would be my guess. But again, if you think about what has gone on historically, that customer base, it really started really in financial institutions and mostly in banks. And then it started to evolve as all corporates had to start complying with different sanctions regimes around the world.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我猜測，這可能是我們下個季度將與您更多討論的內容。但同樣，如果你考慮歷史上發生的事情，即客戶群，它實際上是從金融機構開始的，而且主要是從銀行開始的。然後它開始發展，因為所有企業都必須開始遵守世界各地不同的製裁制度。

But also, as corporates said, hey, we want to start -- this trend I talked about around better understanding who you're doing business with has driven a need from our customers to really get foundational master data and then build a set of -- leverage analytics on top of that to help them think about things like sales and marketing optimization, extending trade credit, onboarding and monitoring customers and thinking about supplier risk. Those are -- that's a set of activities that almost every one of our companies, our customers is doing.

而且，正如企業所說，嘿，我們想要開始- 我談到的這種趨勢是為了更好地了解與您開展業務的人，這推動了我們的客戶真正獲得基礎主數據的需求，然後構建一組 - - 在此之上利用分析來幫助他們思考銷售和行銷優化、擴大貿易信貸、吸引和監控客戶以及考慮供應商風險等問題。這些是我們幾乎每家公司、我們的客戶都在做的一系列活動。

And so we're having conversations with more and more and more of our customers around, "Well, how do you think about the master data and linking then the data and the analytics that you have at your firm and that we can layer on top of that to help you get a better, more holistic view of who you're doing business with and to power those different use cases?"

因此，我們正在與越來越多的客戶進行對話，「那麼，您如何看待主數據以及如何連結您公司擁有的數據和分析，以及我們可以在其之上分層來幫助您更好、更全面地了解與您開展業務的人，並為這些不同的用例提供支援？”

And so that gives us some confidence that we're really going to be able to grow in the corporate and government sector even faster than what we've done. It's a small -- you can see the customer split. But we think we have an opportunity to really get some growth there. And I think you'll hear us talk more about that in the next quarter when we start to talk about what our product pipeline looks like for 2024.

因此，這給了我們一些信心，我們確實能夠在企業和政府部門實現比我們現在更快的成長。它很小——你可以看到客戶的分裂。但我們認為我們有機會在那裡真正獲得一些成長。我認為，當我們開始談論 2024 年的產品管道時，您會在下個季度聽到我們更多地談論這個問題。

Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐。

On Slide 10, you trimmed your issuance guidance from mid-single-digit growth to low to mid-single-digit growth. And the cuts are centered around investment grade, leveraged loans and structured finance. How much of your updated issuance outlook is locked because of refinancing needs versus discretionary in nature and more influenced by macro considerations? And then related to that, does the refinancing pipeline, particularly in high yield, what does that tell you how quickly that issuance can expand for next year?

在投影片 10 中，您將發行指引從中位數個位數成長下調至中低個位數成長。削減的重點是投資等級、槓桿貸款和結構性融資。您更新後的發行前景中有多少是由於再融資需求而不是可自由支配的性質以及更多地受到宏觀因素的影響而被鎖定的？與此相關的是，再融資管道，特別是高收益債券，這是否告訴你明年的發行規模能多快擴大？

George, I'd tell you what, I'm going to try to give you some insight. You're asking about fourth quarter, right, the assumptions going into the fourth quarter. And you talked a little bit about refinancing and how much does that give us confidence, how much is "kind of in the bag." But let me give you some insight, and I think it's going to be helpful for everybody on the call, into how we are thinking about fourth quarter from both an issuance and revenue standpoint.

喬治，我會告訴你，我會嘗試給你一些見解。你問的是第四季的情況，對吧，第四季的假設。您談到了再融資，這給我們帶來了多少信心，多少是「囊中之物」。但讓我給你們一些見解，我認為這對參加電話會議的每個人都有幫助，了解我們如何從發行和收入的角度考慮第四季度。

And I'm going to talk a little bit -- I'm going to talk -- focus more on really sequential growth in issuance and revenues than maybe perhaps I normally do. Because I think in some ways, at the moment, it's a little easier to triangulate back to the environment that we'd just experienced in the third quarter versus was a very different environment a year ago.

我要談一點——我要談——比平常更專注於發行和收入的真正連續成長。因為我認為在某些方面，目前，與一年前非常不同的環境相比，我們在第三季剛經歷的環境要容易一些。

So overall, we're assuming low to mid-single-digit decline in total sequential issuance growth for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of '23. And that translates into high-teens growth on a year-over-year basis now for Q4, looking back to Q4 '22. And then that gets us to our low to mid-single-digit issuance guide for the year.

因此，總體而言，我們假設第四季度的總發行量成長與 2023 年第三季相比將出現低至中個位數的下降。回顧 22 年第 4 季度，這意味著第 4 季的年成長率將達到高位。然後我們就得出了今年低至中個位數的發行指南。

And let me drill down, George, because you were touching on corporates, we're assuming that corporate issuance grows, call it, mid-single digits for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of '23. And that translates to something like mid-single-digit revenue growth for corporates in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, okay, so mid-single-digit issuance and revenue growth sequentially in the fourth quarter.

讓我深入研究一下，喬治，因為你談到了企業，我們假設第四季度的企業發行量增長，稱之為中個位數，與 23 年第三季度相比。這意味著第四季度企業收入與第三季相比將實現中個位數成長，好吧，第四季的發行量和收入連續成長中個位數。

For all other ratings lines, we expect pretty flattish revenue growth versus the third quarter of '23. And if you -- if now I come back up to overall MIS revenue, that translates to something like low single-digit revenue growth for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of '23. And now when I go back to looking at 4Q '22, something like mid-20s percent growth, obviously given it was a much lower comp.

對於所有其他評級線，我們預計與 2023 年第三季相比，營收成長相當穩定。如果你 - 如果現在我回到 MIS 整體收入，這意味著第四季度的收入成長與 23 年第三季相比呈現低個位數成長。現在，當我回顧 22 年第 4 季時，成長率約為 20% 左右，顯然考慮到當時的比較要低得多。

And I would acknowledge I've got a wider range at this point than we normally do, but there's just -- there's a little more uncertainty in the market. So I want to be very clear to everybody about what we've assumed. And then again, in some ways, I'm anchoring to the third quarter here so that you can get a sense -- if you see a variance one way or the other versus the third quarter, you've got a good sense of what that's going to do to revenues -- to MIS revenues and in turn earnings.

我承認，目前我的範圍比平常更大，但市場的不確定性更多了一些。所以我想向大家清楚說明我們的假設。再說一遍，在某些方面，我在這裡錨定第三季度，以便您能夠有所了解- 如果您看到與第三季度相比的一種或另一種差異，您就會很好地了解什麼這將對收入產生影響——管理資訊系統收入，進而影響獲利。

And again, just to -- George, just to put a finer point on it, a key assumption really then is around corporate issuance for fourth quarter, and that's mid-single-digit growth versus the third quarter that we just finished. And I would say there's -- at the moment, there's probably a little more downside than upside to this. But we're not even a full month into the quarter, so we'll see. I hope that's helpful in helping you think about what's going on in the fourth quarter.

再說一次，喬治，為了更詳細地闡述這一點，一個關鍵假設實際上是圍繞第四季度的企業發行，與我們剛剛完成的第三季度相比，這是中等個位數的成長。我想說的是，目前，這可能弊大於利。但本季還不到一個月，所以我們拭目以待。我希望這有助於您思考第四季度發生的事情。

We'll take our next question from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答 RBC 資本市場 Ashish Sabadra 的下一個問題。

I wanted to focus or drill down further on the insurance ARR. We saw a material improvement there from 6% last quarter to 8% in the third quarter. I was just wondering if you could provide some color, where you're seeing that improvement. We obviously saw the ExposureIQ product at the Innovation Day. So is it more driven by the Climate Solutions, the RMS acquisition or the core business, the historical ERS business? So color on that one would be helpful.

我想專注於或進一步深入研究保險 ARR。我們看到了實質的改善，從上季的 6% 上升到第三季的 8%。我只是想知道您是否可以提供一些顏色，您在哪裡看到了改進。我們顯然在創新日看到了 ExposureIQ 產品。那麼，它更多的是由氣候解決方案、RMS 收購還是核心業務、歷史上的 ERS ​​業務推動的？所以給那個顏色上色會很有幫助。

Yes, Ashish, thanks. It's a good question. Last quarter, I think we talked about hitting that high single-digit mark for ARR growth within insurance and then you see 8%. And that's, as you said, improved. And I'd say there's a few things that are going into that. And as you know, we've got, what I'll call, kind of a P&C franchise, which is really historically the RMS franchise. And then we have the life franchise or historically, the Moody's franchise. And now all of that is our insurance business. And in P&C, we have started to see an improvement in ARR growth from our core RMS customers.

是的，阿什什，謝謝。這是一個好問題。上個季度，我想我們談到了保險領域的 ARR 成長要達到高個位數，然後你會看到 8%。正如你所說，這已經有所改善。我想說的是，其中涉及到一些事情。如您所知，我們擁有我所說的 P&C 特許經營權，這實際上是歷史上的 RMS 特許經營權。然後我們有人壽保險特許經營權，或是歷史上的穆迪特許經營權。現在所有這些都是我們的保險業務。在財產和意外險方面，我們已經開始看到核心 RMS 客戶的 ARR 成長有所改善。

And some of that is just good old-fashioned blocking and tackling and great sales execution. And we have a very robust, intelligent risk platform. That's the SaaS platform. So we're having some nice success in migrating people from on-prem solutions to the SaaS platform. And we're also, as you mentioned, starting to roll out new solutions. It's giving us an opportunity to continue to not only bring in new customers but also to be able to do more for our existing customers. So that's one.

其中一些只是良好的老式攔截和鏟球以及出色的銷售執行力。我們擁有一個非常強大、有智慧的風險平台。這就是 SaaS 平台。因此，我們在將人員從本地解決方案遷移到 SaaS 平台方面取得了一些不錯的成功。正如您所提到的，我們也開始推出新的解決方案。它使我們有機會不僅繼續引進新客戶，而且能夠為現有客戶做更多事情。這就是其中之一。

I would also say that while it may not be showing up in the insurance segment, we also feel very good about the cross-selling synergies that we're seeing, where we've got insurers who may be buying solutions from other parts of Moody's Analytics. So a good example is around KYC and master data. And then on the life business, so we -- over the last couple of years, there was some growth -- one of the drivers was around some of the IFRS 17 accounting standards.

我還想說，雖然它可能不會出現在保險領域，但我們也對我們所看到的交叉銷售協同效應感到非常滿意，我們的保險公司可能會從穆迪的其他部門購買解決方案分析。 KYC 和主資料就是一個很好的例子。然後在人壽業務方面，過去幾年我們取得了一些成長，其中一個驅動因素是一些 IFRS 17 會計準則。

Some of that is now in place. But now we're in a wave of kind of product enhancements and other things. So we still have -- actually have some very nice growth in the life business. So all in all, pretty encouraged by the -- not only the growth in the insurance business, but I think the opportunity for us to continue to see some further acceleration there.

其中一些現已到位。但現在我們正處於產品增強和其他方面的浪潮中。所以我們的壽險業務實際上仍然有一些非常好的成長。總而言之，不僅是保險業務的成長，而且我認為我們有機會繼續看到保險業務進一步加速。

We'll take our next question from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行馬納夫·帕特奈克 (Manav Patnaik) 提出的下一個問題。

Just wanted to ask real quick, any -- first off, any disclosures you can give us on revenue or growth in your ESG climate businesses there within Moody's Analytics? And is this, at this point, still mostly RMS and insurance? Or is -- it sounds like you were alluding to some cross-sell opportunities as well. So any color there would be appreciated.

只是想快速詢問一下，首先，您可以向我們揭露穆迪分析公司 ESG 氣候業務的收入或成長情況嗎？目前，這仍然主要是 RMS 和保險嗎？或者是 - 聽起來您也提到了一些交叉銷售機會。所以任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

I'm going to flip that over to Caroline.

我要把這個問題轉給卡洛琳。

Sure. Maybe we'll answer the RMS question first. So we are on track to achieve $150 million of RMS-related incremental run rate revenue by 2025. And with regards to climate and ESG, for 2023, we expect about $200 million in annual revenues. They're growing at a double-digit pace. So there's really ongoing demand from our customers with regards to more information around climate that's really helping us out with that.

當然。也許我們會先回答 RMS 問題。因此，到 2025 年，我們預計將實現 1.5 億美元的 RMS 相關增量運行率收入。在氣候和 ESG 方面，我們預計 2023 年的年收入約為 2 億美元。它們正以兩位數的速度成長。因此，我們的客戶確實對更多有關氣候的資訊有持續的需求，這確實有助於我們解決這個問題。

Yes. And I'd say that, obviously, the bulk of what Caroline just talked about is from RMS. Beyond that, we've got ESG scores. We've got the ESG module, which is an extension of our CreditView module. And we also have a sustainable finance franchise that produces second-party opinions on labeled bond issuance out of the rating agency. All of that is what goes into ESG and climate.

是的。我想說，顯然，卡洛琳剛才談到的大部分內容都來自 RMS。除此之外，我們還有 ESG 分數。我們有 ESG 模組，它是 CreditView 模組的擴充。我們也擁有永續金融專營權，可以就評等機構發行的貼標債券提供第二方意見。所有這些都是 ESG 和氣候的內容。

And the other thing I would say is that, I mean, Caroline is right. We've got, I think, healthy demand -- ongoing demand. But I gave the example of integrating the RMS transition and physical risk data and models into our banking solutions. So that was always the plan. And those kinds of things are going to help us continue to grow that overall pool of revenue from ESG and climate going forward.

我要說的另一件事是，我的意思是，卡羅琳是對的。我認為，我們有健康的需求—持續的需求。但我舉了將 RMS 轉換和實體風險資料和模型整合到我們的銀行解決方案中的範例。所以這一直是計劃。這些事情將幫助我們繼續增加來自 ESG 和氣候的整體收入。

And we'll take our next question from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通安德魯·斯坦納曼的下一個問題。

I just wanted to jump into RMS a little bit more. First here, could you mention how well RMS is growing in the third quarter? And surely, you definitely caught my ear with the earlier comment about how Moody's is integrating the RMS climate risk data into ESG solutions for banks. So my question is how much of RMS revenues are now coming outside of that core P&C insurer? And are the products really different when you're delivering RMS data to banks than insurers?

我只是想進一步了解 RMS。首先，您能提到 RMS 在第三季的成長嗎？當然，您之前關於穆迪如何將 RMS 氣候風險資料整合到銀行 ESG 解決方案中的評論肯定引起了我的注意。所以我的問題是，現在有多少 RMS 收入來自該核心財產與意外傷害保險公司之外？當您向銀行和保險公司提供 RMS 數據時，產品真的有所不同嗎？

So I don't think -- we don't disclose RMS growth at the -- on a quarterly basis. But I can tell you that our target of RMS revenue, including synergies, to grow in the high single-digit range for 2023, that's -- we're still on track for that. And as I mentioned, the two components is RMS growth is, what I'll call, core growth has been picking up. I think we all understand it was a fairly low-growth profile when we acquired it. That is improving. And we are starting to get more and more synergy revenue.

所以我認為——我們不會按季度披露 RMS 增長情況。但我可以告訴你，我們的 RMS 收入目標（包括綜效）在 2023 年實現高個位數成長，我們仍在朝著這個目標邁進。正如我所提到的，這兩個組成部分是 RMS 成長，我稱之為核心成長一直在加速。我想我們都知道，當我們收購它時，它的成長速度相當低。這正在改善。我們開始獲得越來越多的協同收入。

And I guess the other thing I'd say, Andrew, is something like integrating the content into our banking solutions, we'll capture that as synergy revenue. But you won't necessarily see that in the insurance segment, which is why I think it's important for us to be able to give the color on how we're capturing synergy across the broader business. And Andrew, can I make sure I just understand that last bit of the question, it was the difference in insurance delivering in insurance and banking?

安德魯，我想我要說的另一件事是將內容整合到我們的銀行解決方案中，我們將其視為協同收入。但你不一定會在保險領域看到這一點，這就是為什麼我認為能夠為我們如何在更廣泛的業務中獲取協同效應提供色彩是很重要的。安德魯，我能否確保我了解問題的最後一點，即保險和銀行保險交付的差異？

Yes. So when you look at the type of RMS climate data that banking customers are consuming, is it very different than insurers? And let me just remind you, like when you look at a cat model, you've got to be expert genius to consume that data.

是的。那麼，當您查看銀行客戶使用的 RMS 氣候資料類型時，您會發現它與保險公司有很大不同嗎？讓我提醒您，就像當您查看貓模型時，您必須是天才專家才能使用該數據。

Yes, you do. I actually, in a way -- I've said this before, in a way, I've always -- I've sometimes thought of that content is in some ways trapped in very sophisticated insurance workflow software, right? So there's really, really rich, detailed weather models, climate models and massive amounts of data that has historically been used in the RMS software for the larger global insurers and reinsurers and brokers around the world.

是的你是。事實上，我在某種程度上 - 我以前說過，在某種程度上，我一直 - 我有時認為內容在某種程度上被困在非常複雜的保險工作流程軟體中，對吧？因此，RMS 軟體歷史上曾為世界各地較大的全球保險公司、再保險公司和經紀人使用過非常非常豐富、詳細的天氣模型、氣候模型和大量數據。

And the reality is -- and this was a main driver of why we bought this company. We knew that there was going to be a lot of demand for that content but delivered in a different way. So for instance, we've come up with something called Climate on Demand, where we can actually do fairly simple scores and give you an average annual loss estimate. So this is the financial quantification of a weather event on a given property. And we can go down to a 10-meter resolution.

現實是──這是我們收購這家公司的主要原因。我們知道這些內容會有很多需求，但會以不同的方式提供。舉例來說，我們提出了一種名為「氣候隨需應變」的方案，實際上我們可以進行相當簡單的評分，並為您提供平均年度損失估計。這是對給定財產的天氣事件的財務量化。我們可以將解析度降低到 10 公尺。

So banks are saying, "Hey, I'm underwriting a commercial loan. I'm securing it by -- I'm underwriting loans, securing it by commercial real estate. And I understand the insurance policy is an annual policy, but this is a 15-year loan." And so I want to start to understand -- so we are doing exactly what you just described is how do we take that content and deliver it to customers in different ways that are consumable for them in their workflows in ways that are valuable? And that, I think, was very difficult for RMS to do as a stand-alone company. That's part of the value that we're bringing here.

所以銀行會說，“嘿，我正在承保商業貸款。我通過商業房地產來承保貸款。我知道保險單是年度保單，但是這個是一筆15年期的貸款。”所以我想開始理解——所以我們正在做的正是你剛才描述的，我們如何獲取這些內容並以不同的方式將其交付給客戶，以便他們在工作流程中以有價值的方式使用？我認為，對於 RMS 作為獨立公司來說，這是非常困難的。這是我們在這裡帶來的​​價值的一部分。

We'll take our next question from Russell Quelch with Redburn Atlantic.

我們將接受 Redburn Atlantic 的 Russell Quelch 提出的下一個問題。

I noticed there was a small uptick in the expected restructuring charge to '23 versus what you said in Q2. I know it's very small, but wondered what's driving that. And maybe sort of broader question, is there room for further restructuring in '24 if the economic environment doesn't pan out like you laid out in response to Toni's question?

我注意到 23 年的預期重組費用與您在第二季所說的相比略有上升。我知道它很小，但想知道是什麼推動了它。也許還有一個更廣泛的問題，如果經濟環境不像您在回答托尼問題時所闡述的那樣，那麼 24 年是否還有進一步重組的空間？

Yes, Russell, I think I'm going to hand that to Caroline.

是的，拉塞爾，我想我要把它交給卡洛琳。

Sure. So we expect our restructuring program to be substantially complete by the end of the year. We are forecasting up to $205 million for about $100 million to $110 million in MA and $90 million to $95 million in MIS. And the charges relate to both real estate rationalization and workforce optimization. And we inspect -- expect to incur restructuring charges between $20 million to $40 million in the fourth quarter, over 65% of that being related to real estate. So with regards to expanding this into 2024, we have no plans for that.

當然。因此，我們預計重組計劃將在今年年底前基本完成。我們預計 MA 高達 2.05 億美元，其中 1 億至 1.1 億美元約為 1 億至 1.1 億美元，MIS 高達 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元。這些費用與房地產合理化和勞動力優化有關。我們預計第四季將產生 2,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的重組費用，其中 65% 以上與房地產相關。因此，關於將其擴展到 2024 年，我們沒有計劃。

Yes. And Russell, I would just -- to add to that, it was interesting, back when we first announced this, I think it was on this call a year ago. And I got some questions from people like, "Hey, why are you all doing that?" And I don't get those questions anymore. We really took some hard decisions and took a hard look at the business and figured out where we wanted to reprioritize.

是的。拉塞爾，我想補充一點，這很有趣，當我們第一次宣布這一點時，我認為是在一年前的電話會議上。我收到了一些人的問題，例如“嘿，你們為什麼要這麼做？”我不再問這些問題了。我們確實做出了一些艱難的決定，認真審視了業務，並找出了我們想要重新確定優先順序的地方。

And as Caroline said, we've continued to do that through the course of the year. But I think in terms of restructuring program, we're done. There will still be -- and you heard me talk about this. We're still going to be thinking about where we move resources and prioritizing things. But I think as far as restructuring, I think we're done.

正如卡羅琳所說，這一年我們一直在做這件事。但我認為就重組計劃而言，我們已經完成了。仍然會有——你聽到我談論過這個。我們仍然會考慮將資源轉移到哪裡並確定優先順序。但我認為就重組而言，我認為我們已經完成了。

We'll take our next question from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

我們將回答 Shlomo Rosenbaum 和 Stifel 提出的下一個問題。

I had kind of an operational question for you, Rob. Just looking at the operating profit going up pretty substantially in MA from 2Q to 3Q, I was wondering if you could just discuss more kind of detail around what actually happened there. I don't usually see that kind of move in your business.

我有一個操作問題想問你，羅布。看看 MA 從第二季到第三季的營業利潤大幅成長，我想知道您是否可以討論更多實際發生的細節。我通常不會在你們的生意中看到這種舉動。

Was it getting out of a lot of leases at one point in time? Or can you just give us some on-the-ground thoughts of that? Because usually, I think of your business is very much in that area. Your costs, a lot of them are people. And I'm not sure that you had that kind of movements within your headcount.

它是否在某個時間點取消了很多租約？或者您能給我們一些對此的實際想法嗎？因為通常情況下，我認為您的業務主要集中在該領域。你的成本，很多都是人。我不確定你們的員工人數中是否有這種變動。

Yes. Thanks, Shlomo. And I guess, I'll reiterate the kind of health warning of I don't want to get overly fixated on 1 quarter. Obviously, it was a good quarter from a margin perspective. But we do have some seasonal spending patterns in MA. This year, I think, is no different. And obviously, you're looking at then our full year guidance and what that implies for the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，什洛莫。我想，我會重申我不想過度關注第一季的健康警告。顯然，從利潤率角度來看，這是一個不錯的季度。但馬薩諸塞州確實有一些季節性支出模式。我認為今年也不例外。顯然，您正在查看我們的全年指導以及這對第四季度的影響。

And obviously, that means that kind of margin will be a little bit lower in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter. So kind of why is that? And I would just say that as we go into the end of the year, we've got all sorts of projects that start to -- people are trying to get them done by the end of the year. And we also have a good bit of increase in selling activities, just a huge renewal and sales period for us.

顯然，這意味著第四季的利潤率將比第三季略低。這是為什麼呢？我只想說，當我們進入年底時，我們已經開始了各種各樣的項目——人們正試圖在年底前完成它們。我們的銷售活動也有很大的成長，這對我們來說只是一個巨大的更新和銷售期。

And the other thing I might say is that, again you've heard me talk about this reprioritization. You saw that we took some additional actions that were reflected in that updated restructuring charge. So there was -- there were some things that went on over the course of the summer. That was part of that reprioritization. And some of that went into that restructuring charge. Some of that then flowed through -- we saw that flow through. But then in the fourth quarter, as I said, we've got a plan for investments. We know we're going to have a lot of selling activity.

我可能要說的另一件事是，你們又聽到我談論了這種重新確定優先順序的問題。您看到我們採取了一些額外的行動，這些行動反映在更新的重組費用中。所以整個夏天發生了一些事情。這是重新調整優先順序的一部分。其中一部分用於重組費用。其中一些隨後流過——我們看到了它流過。但正如我所說，在第四季度，我們有一個投資計劃。我們知道我們將會有大量的銷售活動。

And the other thing I'd say is if you think back to the call back in February of -- earlier this year, I mean, GenAI wasn't even a thing. And so we've had to figure out how are we going to get after GenAI? How are we going to have the right resources with the right skills and really go after that and fund that internally? And so again, that was all part of the kind of the reprioritizing and repositioning within the business. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of a sense. But I wouldn't get too caught up just in this quarter.

我想說的另一件事是，如果你回想一下今年早些時候 2 月的電話，我的意思是，GenAI 根本就不是一個東西。因此，我們必須弄清楚 GenAI 之後我們將如何發展？我們如何才能擁有合適的資源和合適的技能，並真正追求這一目標並在內部提供資金？再說一遍，這都是業務內部重新確定優先順序和重新定位的一部分。希望這能給你一點感覺。但我不會只關注這個季度。

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 和 Baird。

Want to ask a long-term question on corporate debt velocity. I hear you that it's the lowest it's been in a while. There's a lot that's impacted issuance. We should see cyclical recovery. And refi wall should be supportive. But if you look at the very long term, like a multi-decade view, I'm curious what the data shows in terms of correlation. After a period of a material interest rate increase, does corporate debt velocity tend to persist at a low level? Or is that correlation not really there?

想問一個關於企業債權速度的長期問題。我聽說這是一段時間以來的最低水平。有很多因素影響了發行。我們應該看到週期性復甦。改裝牆應該是支援的。但如果你從長遠來看，例如幾十年的觀點，我很好奇數據在相關性方面顯示了什麼。經過一段時間的大幅利率上升後，企業債務週轉率是否會持續維持在較低水準？或者這種相關性實際上並不存在？

Yes. This may be -- you may have stumped the professor on this one. I've got the data, but I don't have it handy. But what I would say is that we have looked at issuance -- and so I'm not going to necessarily come at this from a debt velocity standpoint, but we have looked at issuance in periods of higher interest rates. And I think it's during the period of transition is when we typically see more challenge to issuance. So it's not simply an absolute higher level of rates that is the headwind.

是的。這可能是——你可能在這個問題上難倒了教授。我有數據，但我手邊沒有。但我想說的是，我們已經研究了發行——所以我不一定會從債務速度的角度來考慮這一點，但我們已經研究了利率較高時期的發行。我認為在過渡時期我們通常會看到發行面臨更多挑戰。因此，阻力不僅僅是絕對較高的利率水準。

Typically, higher rates are also accompanied by economic growth, which ultimately is positive for issuance. So over the longer term, we tend to see that correlation, which is supportive of issuance. Maybe the other thing is, I mean, just thinking out loud here is if we go back decades, the size of the markets, just vastly different. So I just don't know how comparable that really would be. But you know what, there might be something we can follow up on with you and dig in on.

通常情況下，較高的利率也會伴隨著經濟成長，最終有利於發行。因此，從長遠來看，我們傾向於看到這種相關性，這有利於發行。也許另一件事是，我的意思是，只要大聲思考，如果我們回到幾十年前，市場的規模就會完全不同。所以我只是不知道這到底有多大的可比較性。但你知道嗎，我們可能可以與你一起跟進並深入研究一些事情。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

This is Ryan on for Jeff. Just a quick clarifying question, looking at the quarterly changes in rated investment-grade issuance volumes and revenues on Page 5 of the release, I saw issuance was up 6%, but revenue is down 6%. Can you just explain the disparity there and how the pricing comes into play there?

這是瑞恩替傑夫發言。只是一個簡單的澄清問題，查看新聞稿第 5 頁上評級投資級發行量和收入的季度變化，我發現發行量增長了 6%，但收入下降了 6%。您能否解釋一下那裡的差異以及定價如何發揮作用？

Yes, that was a mix issue. So in investment grade, we have typically two types of issuers: those who are on kind of frequent issuer programs; and those who are less frequent, opportunistic issuers. And so in this quarter, that mix tended more towards the frequent issuers and less towards opportunistic, which in some ways makes sense. As you've got kind of a rising rate environment, the opportunistic investment-grade issuers are going to sit on the sidelines if they can. So I think that was primarily what was going on there. It really wasn't a pricing issue.

是的，這是一個混合問題。因此，在投資等級中，我們通常有兩種類型的發行人：那些經常參加發行人計畫的人；以及那些經常參加發行人計畫的人。以及那些不太頻繁的機會主義發行人。因此，在本季度，這種組合更傾向於頻繁發行的機構，而不是機會主義的機構，這在某種程度上是有道理的。由於利率不斷上升，機會主義投資級發行人將盡可能採取觀望態度。所以我認為這主要是那裡發生的事情。這確實不是定價問題。

And we will take Craig Huber's question with Huber Research Partners.

我們將與 Huber 研究夥伴一起回答 Craig Huber 的問題。

Rob, I've got a follow-up question, on pricing, can you just quantify what pricing is doing this year for each of your two main segments, up about 3% to 4%? How should we think about that for '23?

Rob，我有一個關於定價的後續問題，您能否量化一下今年您的兩個主要細分市場的定價情況，上漲約 3% 至 4%？ 23 世紀我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. It's pretty steady Eddie. And I guess, Craig, the real devil is in the details because it does depend to some extent on the issuance mix. So as you know, we don't just have a blanket price increase across the entire issuer community. We're really, really thorough and thoughtful about how we do this. And we think about regions and asset classes and the value and the costs to support the surveillance.

是的。艾迪很穩定。我想，克雷格，真正的問題在於細節，因為它確實在某種程度上取決於發行組合。如您所知，我們不僅僅對整個發行人群體進行全面提價。我們對於如何做到這一點非常非常徹底和深思熟慮。我們會考慮地區和資產類別以及支援監控的價值和成本。

And so all of that goes into how we think about pricing. So again, you don't have a blanket price increase. So depending on where we have more or less price increases that average out to 3% to 4%, it depends on what effectively kind of our pricing take is in any given year. But I would say the idea of kind of 3% to 4% on average across the portfolio is true this year. And we expect it to be true again next year.

因此，所有這些都涉及到我們如何看待定價。再說一次，你沒有全面提價。因此，根據我們在哪些地區的平均價格上漲幅度為 3% 到 4%，這取決於我們在任何特定年份的有效定價方式。但我想說，今年整個投資組合平均 3% 到 4% 的想法是正確的。我們預計明年也會如此。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Rob Fauber for any additional or closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回 Rob Fauber，以獲取任何補充或結束意見。

Okay. Well, I think that does it. I really appreciate everybody for joining the call. And we'll talk to you in February. Thank you. Bye-bye.

好的。嗯，我想這樣就可以了。我非常感謝大家加入這次電話會議。我們將在二月與您交談。謝謝。再見。

And this concludes Moody's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available immediately after the call on Moody's IR website. Thank you.

穆迪 2023 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源部分發布管理資訊系統收入明細。此外，穆迪投資者關係網站將在電話會議結束後立即提供重播。謝謝。