穆迪 (MCO) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。在此，我想告知各位，本次會議正在錄影。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係主管Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 as well as our guidance for 2026. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝。早安，感謝各位今天收看我們的節目。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2025 年第四季和全年業績，以及對 2026 年的展望。本次電話會議的獲利新聞稿和簡報均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for reconciliations between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in US GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們也會公佈非GAAP或調整後的數據。請參考我們今天早上發布的獲利新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議中提到的所有經調整指標與美國通用會計準則之間的調節情況。

I call your attention to the Safe Harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the Safe Harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

請您注意安全港條款，該條款位於我們盈利報告的末尾。今天的發言可能包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告中的管理層討論與分析部分以及風險因素，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的內容，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些內容，連同安全港聲明，列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中所包含的結果有重大差異的重要因素。

I'd also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode. Over to you, Rob.

我還想指出，今天早上媒體成員可能以只聽模式參與電話會議。接下來就交給你了，羅布。

Thanks, Shivani. And thanks, everybody, for joining today's call.

謝謝你，希瓦尼。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。

I'm going to start with the highlights. And 2025 was a record year for Moody's. It was driven by consistent execution against the long-term demand trends that we've discussed over the last several years. And we finished the year with strong fourth quarter performance across both ratings and analytics and delivered robust growth and meaningful capital returns to shareholders.

我先從重點說起。2025年是穆迪創紀錄的一年。這是得益於我們過去幾年一直在討論的長期需求趨勢的持續有效執行。我們以強勁的第四季度業績結束了這一年，無論是在評級還是分析方面，都取得了不錯的成績，並為股東帶來了強勁的成長和可觀的資本回報。

Now, we're scaling decision-grade contextual intelligence embedded directly into customer workflows across our platforms, third-party systems, and AI-enabled interfaces so that we're present where critical decisions get made. And as technology and the ways of working continue to evolve, we enter 2026 well positioned and confident in the opportunities ahead.

現在，我們正在將決策級上下文智慧直接嵌入到我們平台、第三方系統和人工智慧介面中的客戶工作流程中，以便我們能夠在關鍵決策做出的地方發揮作用。隨著科技和工作方式的不斷發展，我們已做好充分準備，對2026年的未來機會充滿信心。

Now, we had strong top line performance across the company in 2025. Total revenue exceeded $7.7 billion. That was up 9% year-over-year and 9% in both Ratings and Analytics. We expanded adjusted operating margin to 51.1%. That was up 300 basis points as we drive further operating leverage into the business. And these results are being driven by sustained customer demand for our decision grade data analytics and insights amidst very large funding needs, greater market complexity, heightened risk and resilience needs, and compliance requirements.

現在，我們公司在 2025 年的整體營收表現強勁。總收入超過77億美元。與去年同期相比成長了 9%，評級和分析兩項指標均成長了 9%。我們將調整後的營業利益率提高至 51.1%。隨著我們進一步提高業務的營運槓桿，這一數字上升了 300 個基點。這些成果的取得，得益於客戶對我們決策級數據分析和洞察的持續需求，同時還要應對巨大的資金需求、日益複雜的市場環境、不斷提高的風險和韌性需求以及合規要求。

Now, adjusted EPS -- sorry, adjusted diluted EPS reached a record $14.94, that was up 20% year-over-year. And that represents a 70% earnings growth over the past three years. So it's something like a 20% CAGR since 2022.

現在，經過調整後的每股收益（抱歉，是經調整後的稀釋每股收益）達到了創紀錄的 14.94 美元，同比增長 20%。這意味著過去三年獲利成長了70%。所以自 2022 年以來，年複合成長率約為 20%。

Now, let me turn to Ratings. And issuance and investment cycles came together very powerfully in the fourth quarter, resulted in the busiest fourth quarter in our history. And the investments that we've made over several years have really positioned us to capitalize on this activity and that drove record revenue this past year.

現在，讓我來談談評分。第四季度，發行週期和投資週期強強聯合，導致我們史上最繁忙的第四季。我們多年來的投資確實讓我們能夠充分利用這項業務，這也推動了去年創紀錄的收入。

In 2025, we rated $6.6 trillion of debt. That was an all-time high, supporting investment across infrastructure, AI-driven data centers, energy finance, energy transition finance, and private credit. And in the fourth quarter alone, we rated more than $70 billion of issuance for companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, in part related to their AI investment programs. Moody's was named Best Credit Rating Agency in the US by Extel again. That's for the 14th consecutive year, and that really reflects our role at the forefront of global debt markets.

2025年，我們評估了6.6兆美元的債務。這是歷史最高水平，支援了基礎設施、人工智慧驅動的資料中心、能源金融、能源轉型金融和私人信貸等領域的投資。僅在第四季度，我們就對包括 Alphabet、亞馬遜和 Meta 在內的多家公司超過 700 億美元的發行進行了評級，部分原因與它們的 AI 投資計劃有關。穆迪再次被Extel評為美國最佳信用評等機構。這已經是我們連續第 14 年獲此殊榮，也真正反映了我們在全球債務市場的領先地位。

In December, we issued a request for comment on a cross-sector stablecoin rating methodology. And as the use of tokenized cash continues to accelerate, the total value of issued stablecoins is forecasted to reach $400 billion by the end of 2026 and $2 trillion by 2028. And our methodology, which is the first such framework from a credit rating agency, will position Moody's to play an important role in the digital finance ecosystem.

去年 12 月，我們發布了關於跨產業穩定幣評級方法的意見徵詢書。隨著代幣化現金的使用持續加速，預計到 2026 年底，已發行穩定幣的總價值將達到 4,000 億美元，到 2028 年將達到 2 兆美元。我們的方法論是信用評級機構推出的首個此類框架，這將使穆迪在數位金融生態系統中發揮重要作用。

Now, in private credit, demand for ratings continues to accelerate. Private credit revenue in MIS grew by nearly 60% in 2025, reflecting both market growth and our expanding role in the sector. And we developed new methodologies and deepened our analytical and commercial engagement to capture rising demand for transparent, independent credit assessment. And that momentum is translating into tangible wins. Last year, we were the sole rating agency on the largest private credit CLO of the year, a $1.5 billion issuance by Blackstone.

如今，在私人信貸領域，對評級的需求持續加速成長。2025 年 MIS 的私人信貸收入成長了近 60%，這不僅反映了市場成長，也反映了我們在該領域不斷擴大的角色。我們開發了新的方法，並深化了分析和商業合作，以滿足對透明、獨立的信用評估日益增長的需求。而這種勢頭正在轉化為實實在在的勝利。去年，我們是當年規模最大的私人信貸 CLO（黑石集團發行的 15 億美元 CLO）的唯一評級機構。

Now, pivoting to Moody's Analytics. We finished 2025 on a strong note there as well. We delivered net growth that outpaced the fourth quarter of 2024. And this performance included meaningful contributions from our highest priority growth areas. That includes our lending and credit decisioning solutions as well as decision-grade KYC data. We also closed the year with strong momentum in AI-related sales, ranging from specialized workflow agents to AI-ready data sets, and I'm going to talk about that in just a few minutes.

現在，讓我們把目光轉向穆迪分析公司。我們在2025年也取得了不錯的成績。我們實現了淨成長，超過了 2024 年第四季的預期。而且，我們重點成長領域也為此業績做出了重要貢獻。這包括我們的貸款和信貸決策解決方案以及決策級 KYC 數據。今年年底，我們在人工智慧相關產品的銷售方面也取得了強勁的成長勢頭，從專門的工作流程代理到人工智慧就緒的資料集，我稍後會詳細介紹這一點。

Importantly, our strongest growth came from our largest strategic customers. These customers contributed over 30% of the total MA net growth in the fourth quarter and for the full year, grew at twice the rate of the rest of the MA customer base. So this is durable high-quality growth with clear evidence of customer adoption.

重要的是，我們最強勁的成長來自我們最大的策略客戶。這些客戶在第四季度貢獻了 MA 總淨成長的 30% 以上，並且全年成長速度是 MA 其他客戶群的兩倍。這是持久的高品質成長，並有明確的客戶採納證據。

And I want to emphasize durable because the nature of MA's revenue growth is increasingly recurring and scalable, so recurring revenue grew 11% and represented 97% of fourth quarter revenue. So this, combined with some real execution discipline, enabled us to deliver 190 basis points of margin expansion and an adjusted margin of almost 36% in the fourth quarter.

我想強調“持久性”，因為 MA 的收入成長性質越來越具有經常性和可擴展性，因此經常性收入增長了 11%，佔第四季度收入的 97%。因此，再加上一些真正的執行紀律，我們得以在第四季實現 190 個基點的利潤率成長和近 36% 的調整後利潤率。

We set our focus on scaling MA's recurring revenue base a few years ago. And now we're making further proactive adjustments to our portfolio to reinforce that strategy. So in December, we closed on the sale of our Learning Solutions business, that was primarily reported as transactional revenue, and it really was no longer core to our strategy. We also announced the sale of our Regulatory Reporting business which serve customers with relatively limited cross-sell opportunities across other banking offerings.

幾年前，我們將重點放在擴大 MA 的經常性收入基礎上。現在，我們正在對投資組合進行進一步的積極調整，以強化這項策略。因此，在 12 月，我們完成了學習解決方案業務的出售，該業務主要以交易收入的形式報告，但它實際上已不再是我們策略的核心。我們也宣佈出售監理報告業務，該業務服務於客戶，但與其他銀行產品相比，交叉銷售機會相對有限。

And underpinning all of this is our commitment to delivering best-in-class solutions. And that commitment was reinforced by our recognition as the number one provider in the Chartis RiskTech100 for the fourth consecutive year, and that reflects the trust that customers place in Moody's to support workflows and decisions that matter most.

而這一切的基礎是我們致力於提供一流解決方案的承諾。我們連續第四年被評為 Chartis RiskTech100 排名第一的供應商，這進一步鞏固了我們的承諾，也反映了客戶對穆迪的信任，相信我們能夠支持最重要的工作流程和決策。

And we see that market recognition reflecting a broader truth that as AI becomes a new interface for decision-making, the need for trusted context increases, not decreases. AI systems require verifiable permission, domain-specific data and analytics to produce outputs that are accurate, explainable, and defensible. And that's exactly what Moody's provides, and it gives us the opportunity to become even more deeply embedded in customer workflows.

我們看到，市場對人工智慧的認知反映了一個更廣泛的真理，即隨著人工智慧成為決策的新介面，對可信上下文的需求反而增加，而不是減少。人工智慧系統需要可驗證的許可、特定領域的數據和分析，才能產生準確、可解釋和可辯護的輸出結果。而這正是穆迪所提供的，它讓我們有機會更深入地融入客戶的工作流程。

So we see this clearly in recent customer behavior. Customers who have purchased or upgraded into at least one stand-alone GenAI or agentic solution are retained at a rate of 97% and are growing at roughly twice the rate of the rest of the customer base. So this is an experimental usage. AI adoption is driving greater consumption of our proprietary data, expanding our share of wallet, and reinforcing long-term customer economics, particularly amongst our largest strategic accounts.

這一點在近期的客戶行為中反映得非常明顯。購買或升級到至少一款獨立 GenAI 或代理解決方案的客戶留存率高達 97%，且其成長速度約為其他客戶群的兩倍。所以這是一種實驗性用法。人工智慧的普及應用正在推動我們專有數據的更大使用量，擴大我們的市場份額，並增強長期客戶經濟效益，尤其是在我們最大的策略客戶中。

And a key reason for adoption that it's accelerating is how customers consume our intelligence. So Moody's solutions are delivered through our own applications. And increasingly, they're embedded directly into customers' existing technology stacks and third-party workflow platforms. That includes systems like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Coupa, Intapp, Databricks. And we've made our content available through Smart APIs and MCPs and specialized agents for consumption through our customers' own AI platforms and going forward through AI portals like Claude and OpenAI. And this is enabling us to serve our customers on a different level and in different ways than ever before.

而推動其普及的關鍵原因在於客戶如何運用我們的情報。因此，穆迪的解決方案是透過我們自己的應用程式提供的。而且，它們越來越多地直接嵌入到客戶現有的技術堆疊和第三方工作流程平台中。其中包括 Salesforce、ServiceNow、Coupa、Intapp、Databricks 等系統。我們已透過智慧 API 和 MCP 以及專門的代理程序，將我們的內容提供給客戶自己的 AI 平台，並將繼續透過 Claude 和 OpenAI 等 AI 入口網站提供使用。這使我們能夠以與以往不同的方式和更高的層次為客戶提供服務。

So for our banking customers, AI-enabled workflows such as automated credit memos and early warning systems are delivering some material efficiency gains, reducing cycle times while improving consistency and regulatory compliance. And our flagship lending solution, that we call CreditLens, remains the fastest-growing product in the banking portfolio, with growth approaching 20% in 2025. And I have to tell you; our new packaging is working. Roughly two-thirds of eligible renewals converted to our AI-enabled Lending Suite in 2025, with an average uplift of about 67%.

因此，對於我們的銀行客戶而言，人工智慧賦能的工作流程（例如自動貸項通知單和預警系統）正在帶來實質的效率提升，縮短週期時間，同時提高一致性和監管合規性。我們旗艦貸款解決方案 CreditLens 仍然是銀行產品組合中成長最快的產品，預計到 2025 年成長率將接近 20%。我必須告訴你們，我們的新包裝效果很好。2025 年，約有三分之二符合資格的續約客戶將轉而使用我們的 AI 賦能貸款套件，平均增幅約 67%。

In the fourth quarter, we also sold a large globally systemic important bank, our GenAI-ready data and Smart APIs to embed into their digital credit platform in order to automate financial analysis and accelerate wholesale lending decisions.

第四季度，我們也向一家全球系統重要性銀行出售了我們的 GenAI 就緒資料和智慧 API，以便將其嵌入到他們的數位信貸平台中，從而實現財務分析自動化並加快批發貸款決策。

A Tier 1 US bank has deployed Moody's agentic solutions to automate credit memo creation. They've told us that it can generate roughly 35% to 40% of each memo and saves analyst hundreds and hundreds and thousands of hours of time equating, in some cases, to millions of dollars saved. And that work is expanding into enabling real-time commercial real estate risk monitoring, API-based screening, and KYC where we displaced a competitor in the fourth quarter.

美國一家一級銀行已部署穆迪的代理解決方案，以實現貸項通知單的自動化創建。他們告訴我們，它可以產生每份備忘錄大約 35% 到 40% 的內容，並為分析師節省數百上千小時的時間，在某些情況下，相當於節省了數百萬美元。這項工作正在擴展到實現即時商業房地產風險監控、基於 API 的篩選和 KYC，我們在第四季度取代了競爭對手。

And the same holds true around the world. In the fourth quarter, we signed banks in APAC and the Middle East to embed our AI-enabled spreading and memo generation solutions into their loan origination platforms. And we heard back from them. They're reducing decision times in some cases by as much as 80% and cutting loan processing cycles, in some cases, by as much as 15 times. So some real efficiency.

這種情況在世界各地都適用。第四季度，我們與亞太和中東地區的銀行簽署協議，將我們基於人工智慧的貸款發放和備忘錄產生解決方案嵌入到他們的貸款發起平台中。我們收到了他們的回覆。在某些情況下，他們將決策時間縮短了 80%，並將貸款處理週期縮短了 15 倍。所以效率確實很高。

And KYC continues to deliver mid-teens growth driven by customers' trust in the quality of the governance and the global coverage of our data. So a great example is our partnership with one of the world's largest e-commerce and technology companies, where we've grown that relationship more than 20-fold over the last three years. And today, our data is integrated across KYC, supplier risk, credit risk, transfer pricing, and sales workflows and covers more than 15,000 suppliers across automated entity resolution, screening, and early warning signals.

KYC 業務持續保持兩位數以上的成長，這得益於客戶對我們資料治理品質和全球覆蓋範圍的信任。一個很好的例子是我們與全球最大的電子商務和科技公司之一的合作，在過去的三年裡，我們與該公司的合作關係成長了 20 倍以上。如今，我們的數據已整合到 KYC、供應商風險、信用風險、轉移定價和銷售工作流程中，涵蓋超過 15,000 家供應商，以實現自動化實體解析、篩選和預警訊號。

Similarly, in the fourth quarter, and you -- there's a pattern here, one of the world's largest global payment platform, signed a multiyear, multimillion dollar agreement to embed Orbis via API into their new customer onboarding processes. And they're treading two critical requirements. They're creating a smooth customer experience through prepopulated applications while addressing enhanced KYC due diligence requirements from their regulators.

同樣，在第四季度，——這裡存在著一種模式——全球最大的支付平台之一簽署了一項多年期、數百萬美元的協議，透過 API 將 Orbis 嵌入到其新客戶的註冊流程中。他們正在努力滿足兩個關鍵要求。他們透過預先填寫的應用程序，打造流暢的客戶體驗，同時滿足監管機構加強的 KYC 盡職調查要求。

And just to bring it up another notch. Moody's data is being used at the highest levels of the intelligence spectrum. In the fourth quarter, Interpol announced they're leveraging our ownership in firmographic data to support their operations targeting illicit finance, with the recent operation resulting in 83 arrests across six countries. And it's in environments like this, our accuracy, providence, and the auditability are non-negotiable.

再進一步提升一下。穆迪的數據正被應用於情報領域最高層。第四季度，國際刑警組織宣布，他們正在利用我們擁有的企業資訊數據來支持其打擊非法金融的行動，最近的一次行動在六個國家逮捕了 83 人。在這樣的環境下，我們的準確性、可靠性和可審計性是不可妥協的。

Now, our data can't be synthesized from public sources. It reflects how ownership and control actually work in the real world, cutting through complex multilayered structures across jurisdictions, and reflecting years of proprietary data curation, entity resolution, and relationship mapping. And it's that breadth and depth that makes our data both AI-enabling and AI resilient. And we see some similar dynamics in insurance as well, where rising climate-related losses are driving demand for more data-intensive, model-driven solutions.

現在，我們無法從公共來源合成資料。它反映了所有權和控制權在現實世界中的實際運作方式，穿透了跨司法管轄區的複雜多層結構，並反映了多年來專有資料整理、實體解析和關係映射。正是這種廣度和深度，使我們的數據既能賦能人工智慧，又能增強人工智慧的韌性。我們在保險業也看到了類似的動態，氣候相關損失的增加推動了對資料密集、模型驅動型解決方案的需求。

In December, we launched our high-definition severe convective storm model. That was calibrated on more than $55 billion of granular claims data, and that was contributed by the industry and available nowhere else. And then we deliver that SCS model through our cloud-based intelligent risk platform, and early adoption has been strong, reflecting the demand for more precise underwriting as these secondary perils as they're called, increasingly behave like primary risk.

12月，我們推出了高解析度強對流風暴模式。這是基於超過 550 億美元的詳細理賠數據進行校準的，這些數據由行業提供，在其他任何地方都無法獲得。然後，我們透過基於雲端的智慧風險平台提供 SCS 模型，早期採用情況良好，這反映出市場對更精確的承保的需求，因為這些被稱為次要風險的因素越來越像主要風險。

So we believe the common thread here is clear. As AI proliferates, value accrues to providers of trusted context, decision grade data and analytics that are embedded, auditable and difficult to replicate, and that is exactly where Moody's sits.

所以我們認為，這裡的共同點很明顯。隨著人工智慧的普及，能夠提供可信賴的背景資訊、決策級數據和分析（這些數據和分析是嵌入式的、可審計的且難以複製的）的提供者將獲得價值，而這正是穆迪的立足之地。

So stepping back, our confidence heading into 2026 is grounded in the durability of the business model that we've built and the discipline with which we allocate capital. And we operate businesses with structurally attractive economics, complementary revenue streams, and deeply embedded customer relationships. And it's these powerful business dynamics that allow us to generate strong cash flow and invest confidently in the areas with the highest long-term returns while continuing to expand margins.

因此，回顧過去，我們對 2026 年的信心源自於我們所建立的商業模式的持久性以及我們分配資本的嚴謹性。我們經營的業務具有結構性的經濟效益、互補的收入來源以及深厚的客戶關係。正是這些強大的商業動力使我們能夠產生強勁的現金流，並有信心投資於長期回報最高的領域，同時不斷擴大利潤率。

So in Ratings, we continue to broaden our methodologies and deepen expertise in areas aligned with the huge global funding needs and market innovation. And that includes infrastructure and AI investment, public and private market dynamics, energy transition, and digital finance. At the same time, we're further investing in our global footprint to ensure that we are supporting the markets and issuers that will define the next phase of growth.

因此，在評級方面，我們不斷拓寬方法論，深化在與全球龐大的融資需求和市場創新相關的領域的專業知識。這包括基礎設施和人工智慧投資、公共和私人市場動態、能源轉型和數位金融。同時，我們正在進一步投資擴大我們的全球業務，以確保我們能夠支援那些將定義下一階段成長的市場和發行人。

In Analytics, we're advancing a very deliberate strategy to position Moody's data as a trusted context layer for AI. We're accelerating efforts to link our massive data estate, expand network-based insights, and make our content more actionable within customer workflows. And given the traction we're seeing, we've established a dedicated sales team focused on agent-ready data in 2026, and that reflects both customer demand and our conviction in this opportunity.

在分析領域，我們正在推動一項非常審慎的策略，將穆迪的資料定位為人工智慧的可信上下文層。我們正在加快努力，將我們龐大的數據資產連接起來，擴展基於網路的洞察，並使我們的內容在客戶工作流程中更具可操作性。鑑於我們目前看到的良好勢頭，我們已成立一支專門的銷售團隊，致力於在 2026 年提供可供代理商使用的數據，這既反映了客戶的需求，也體現了我們對這一機會的信心。

Now, from a product standpoint, our innovation engine is highly active with the majority of 2026 growth expected to come from three primary areas. First, in lending and credit decisioning we're upgrading customers onto a more integrated AI-enabled platforms. This includes moving CreditView users to what we call [Moody'sView], expanding CreditLens into a broader Lending Suite, and delivering agentic capabilities, such as automated credit memos and early warning tools. And we're also expanding and packaging our credit tools specifically for private credit origination and underwriting where demand continues to grow.

從產品角度來看，我們的創新引擎非常活躍，預計 2026 年的大部分成長將來自三個主要領域。首先，在貸款和信貸決策方面，我們正在將客戶升級到更整合的AI賦能平台。這包括將 CreditView 用戶移轉到我們稱為 [Moody'sView] 的系統，將 CreditLens 擴展為更廣泛的貸款套件，並提供代理功能，例如自動信用備忘錄和預警工具。我們也不斷擴展和包裝我們的信貸工具，專門用於私人信貸的發放和承銷，因為需求持續成長。

Second, in KYC and compliance, we're focused on driving efficiency and scale. For financial institutions, we're delivering productivity gains through workflow partnerships and piloting screening and diligence agents. For corporates, we're rolling out a simplified modular compliance suite that scales in data and functionality based on the company's size, exposure, and sophistication. All of that will be delivered through the Moody's [risk compliance] platform.

其次，在 KYC 和合規方面，我們專注於提高效率和規模。對於金融機構，我們透過工作流程合作以及試點篩選和盡職調查代理機構來提高生產力。對於企業客戶，我們正在推出一套簡化的模組化合規套件，可根據公司的規模、風險敞口和複雜程度擴展資料和功能。所有這些都將透過穆迪的風險合規平台交付。

And third, in insurance, we continue to invest across catastrophe modeling, underwriting, and risk transfer. This includes ongoing migrations to our cloud-based intelligent risk platform, new high-definition model offerings, and enhanced data management capabilities with our new Risk Data Lake. We're leveraging our geospatial artificial intelligence alongside Moody's hazard and risk scores to deliver a holistic property intelligence solution that supports underwriting decisions.

第三，在保險領域，我們繼續增加對災害建模、承保和風險轉移的投資。這包括持續遷移到我們基於雲端的智慧風險平台、新的高清模型產品，以及透過我們新的風險資料湖增強的資料管理能力。我們正在利用我們的地理空間人工智慧以及穆迪的風險評分，提供一個全面的房地產智慧解決方案，以支援核保決策。

We're also expanding into casualty and financial lines by combining Praedicat's capabilities with Moody's data where we've demonstrated strong signal value and customer interest. And in the capital markets, we see an opportunity in catastrophe bonds as climate risk increasingly migrates into structured finance, an area where Moody's is uniquely positioned at the intersection of models, ratings, and market infrastructure with the recent launch of our cat bond rating methodology and revamped cat bond modeling platform.

我們也透過將 Praedicat 的功能與穆迪的數據結合，拓展到意外險和金融險領域，因為我們已證明這些領域具有強大的訊號價值和客戶興趣。在資本市場方面，我們看到了巨災債券的機遇，因為氣候風險日益轉移到結構性融資領域，而穆迪憑藉其在模型、評級和市場基礎設施​​方面的獨特優勢，以及近期推出的巨災債券評級方法和改進的巨災債券建模平台，在該領域佔據了有利地位。

Across both Analytics and Ratings, a critical enabler of this growth is the continued build-out of our AI context layer and knowledge graph. And we're capturing large new structured and unstructured data sets and leveraging our global connectivity to enrich how our AI systems and our analysts understand risk, relationships, and exposure.

在分析和評級方面，這種成長的關鍵推動因素是我們不斷建構人工智慧上下文層和知識圖譜。我們正在獲取大量新的結構化和非結構化資料集，並利用我們的全球連接性來豐富我們的人工智慧系統和分析師對風險、關係和曝險的理解。

It's not a point solution. It is a foundational capability that compounds the value of everything that we do. And taken together, this is a portfolio designed to perform across market environments. It strengthens our competitive advantages, extends our growth runway where we have a clear right to win, and supports durable value creation for shareholders.

這並非一勞永逸的解決方案。這是一項基礎性能力，它能提升我們所做的一切的價值。綜合來看，這是一個旨在適應各種市場環境的投資組合。它增強了我們的競爭優勢，延長了我們擁有明顯優勢的成長空間，並為股東創造了持久的價值。

And before I hand it over to Noemie, I want to thank our teams for their exceptional work in 2025. Noémie, over to you.

在將發言權交給諾埃米之前，我想感謝我們的團隊在 2025 年的出色工作。諾埃米，該你了。

Thanks, Rob. And hello, everyone.

謝謝你，羅伯。大家好。

The fourth quarter capped off an outstanding year across the board. While we experienced tariff-driven uncertainty that resulted in a market-driven air pocket early in 2025, conditions recovered as the year progressed, and we finished very close to our initial internal expectations.

第四季為全面出色的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。雖然我們在 2025 年初經歷了關稅帶來的不確定性，導致市場波動，但隨著時間的推移，情況有所好轉，最終我們非常接近最初的內部預期。

Let me start with Moody's Analytics. In 2025, we sharpened our focus on our highest conviction growth opportunities, while continuing to actively optimize our product portfolio and manage costs with discipline. For the full year, MA revenue grew 9% and adjusted operating margin improved by 240 basis points to 33.1%. This performance builds on our already strong financial profile, delivering consistent growth at scale with a very high concentration in recurring revenue and retention in the low to mid-90s. ARR reached $3.5 billion, up 8% and which is in line with organic constant currency recurring revenue growth also at 8%.

讓我先從穆迪分析公司說起。2025年，我們將更加專注於我們最有信心的成長機會，同時繼續積極優化我們的產品組合併嚴格控製成本。全年來看，MA 的營收成長了 9%，調整後的營業利潤率提高了 240 個基點，達到 33.1%。這項業績建立在我們原本就強勁的財務狀況之上，實現了規模化的持續成長，經常性收入佔比非常高，客戶留存率在 90% 到 95% 之間。ARR 達到 35 億美元，成長 8%，與有機固定匯率經常性營收成長 8% 的情況一致。

Now, before turning to the drivers of ARR growth, I want to do a quick reminder on the MA revenue disclosures. Reported revenue reflects period results and that includes FX and M&A. Organic constant currency recurring revenue measures renewable software licenses, decision grade data, and world-class content and analytics, which collectively represents an incredibly durable core business, and that removes FX and M&A. However, the growth rate can still vary quarter-to-quarter due to upfront revenue recognition timing, especially for on-premises licenses.

現在，在討論 ARR 成長的驅動因素之前，我想先快速回顧一下 MA 收入揭露情況。報告的收入反映了當期業績，其中包括外匯和併購活動。有機固定匯率經常性收入衡量的是可再生軟體許可、決策級數據以及世界一流的內容和分析，這些共同構成了一個極其持久的核心業務，並且剔除了外匯和併購的影響。然而，由於預收收入確認時間的原因，成長率仍可能因季度而異，尤其是對於本地部署許可證而言。

Now, ARR is forward-looking. It's normalized for FX and M&A. And it reflects the current position of recurring contracts. As a result, this gives, in our view, the clearest perspective of customer demand and the future revenue base.

現在，ARR 具有前瞻性。已對外匯和併購進行標準化處理。這也反映了目前循環合約的現狀。因此，我們認為，這能最清楚地展現客戶需求和未來收入基礎。

Using that lens, let me walk through a few highlights. Starting with Decision Solutions, which includes KYC, insurance, and banking and continues to be a key growth engine for MA. These businesses delivered double-digit ARR growth and represent approximately 45% of total MA ARR, underscoring both their scale and strategic importance.

藉此機會，讓我帶大家回顧幾個亮點。從決策解決方案開始，該解決方案涵蓋 KYC、保險和銀行業務，並且一直是 MA 的關鍵成長引擎。這些業務實現了兩位數的 ARR 成長，約佔 MA 總 ARR 的 45%，凸顯了它們的規模和策略重要性。

KYC remains the fastest-growing component, with growth consistently in the mid- to high teens over the past two years and 15% ARR growth at the end of 2025. Growth in KYC continues to be driven by both deeper penetration with existing banking customers, especially Tier 1 institutions as well as expansion beyond our traditional financial services customer profile.

KYC 仍然是成長最快的部分，在過去兩年中一直保持著 15% 到 10% 的成長，預計到 2025 年底，ARR 將成長 15%。KYC 的成長持續受到兩方面因素的推動：一方面是現有銀行客戶（尤其是一級機構）的深入滲透，另一方面是傳統金融服務客戶群之外的拓展。

We are increasingly seeing demand from nonfinancial customers for unique solutions to address complex, high-stakes compliance challenges, as you heard Rob talk about with the Interpol example. We delivered very strong net growth in the quarter, supported by both new customer wins and continued cross-selling and expansion with existing relationships.

我們越來越看到非金融客戶對獨特解決方案的需求，以應對複雜、高風險的合規挑戰，正如你聽到羅布用國際刑警組織的例子所談到的那樣。本季我們實現了非常強勁的淨成長，這得益於新客戶的贏得以及與現有客戶的持續交叉銷售和業務拓展。

Now, a few recent deals illustrate the power of our solutions here and our ability to deliver trusted outcomes for customers. As Rob referenced earlier, we secured a competitive KYC displacement win as a tier bank that also leverages a broader set of Moody's solutions. And what this example illustrates is our ability to build and more broadly scale relationships over time. In fact, the relationship grew by more than 20% in '25 and continues to present meaningful expansion opportunities in '26.

最近的一些交易證明了我們解決方案的強大之處，以及我們為客戶帶來可靠成果的能力。正如羅布之前提到的，我們作為一家一級銀行，成功贏得了具有競爭力的 KYC 替代項目，並且還利用了穆迪更廣泛的解決方案。這個例子說明了我們有能力隨著時間的推移建立並擴大關係。事實上，該關係在 2025 年增長了 20% 以上，並在 2026 年繼續帶來有意義的擴張機會。

Beyond the payments company customer example Rob mentioned earlier, we won new business with two manufacturing corporates including a leading global aerospace and defense company facing new US export control requirements. In this case, the customer needed a solution capable of identifying ownership and control structures across complex global entities to comply with the BIS 50% role and the evolving export restrictions. We are uniquely positioned to address this kind of customer challenge because of our ability to link together billions of ownership structures through our extensive network of local registry relationships.

除了羅布前面提到的支付公司客戶案例之外，我們還贏得了兩家製造企業的新業務，其中包括一家面臨美國新的出口管制要求的全球領先的航空航天和國防公司。在這種情況下，客戶需要一種能夠識別複雜全球實體的所有權和控制結構的解決方案，以符合 BIS 50% 的角色和不斷變化的出口限制。我們擁有獨特的優勢來應對這類客戶挑戰，因為我們能夠透過廣泛的本地註冊關係網絡將數十億個所有權結構連結起來。

Turning to banking. Our focus on customer mix here differ quite a bit from KYC. While KYC is anchored in deep relationships with Tier 1 banks and corporate customers, our banking offerings in decision solutions are much more significantly concentrated with Tier 2 and Tier 3 institutions, where demand is centered on scalable, configurable, end-to-end workflow solutions that are ready to deploy.

轉向銀行業。我們在這裡關注的客戶組合與 KYC 有很大不同。雖然 KYC 業務依託於與一級銀行和企業客戶的深厚關係，但我們的銀行決策解決方案產品則更集中於二級和三級機構，這些機構的需求集中在可擴展、可配置、可隨時部署的端到端工作流程解決方案上。

Banking delivered ARR growth of 8%. That's up from 7% in the third quarter. And this business includes our Lending Suite as well as Risk Regulatory and Finance solutions. We are actively investing in expanding our end-to-end offering for lending, including with AI capabilities from the Numerated and Able.ai acquisitions, strengthening decisioning, automation, and customer experience.

銀行業務實現了 8% 的年度經常性收入成長。這一比例高於第三季的7%。這項業務包括我們的貸款套件以及風險監管和金融解決方案。我們正在積極投資，以擴展我們的端到端貸款服務，包括利用收購 Numerated 和 Able.ai 獲得的 AI 能力，加強決策、自動化和客戶體驗。

In this line of business, we have been deliberately reducing transactional revenue over the last several years, primarily by expanding our partner network to serve the lower-margin implementation services for our solutions. And you'll see in 2025, this trend continued and was compounded by the recently completed divestiture of the Learning Solutions business, which is a further sharpening of our focus within the banking portfolio towards the highest demand and quality revenue.

在這個業務領域，過去幾年我們一直在刻意減少交易收入，主要是透過擴大合作夥伴網路來為我們的解決方案提供利潤率較低的實施服務。到 2025 年，您將會看到這一趨勢仍在繼續，並且由於最近完成的學習解決方案業務剝離而加劇，這進一步加強了我們在銀行業務組合中對最高需求和高品質收入的關注。

Now, turning to insurance. Demand for our most sophisticated high-definition models and cloud-based intelligent risk platform drove 7% ARR growth for the year-end '25, and that's an increase of 21% over the last two years. And looking at this two-year view is important because 2024 was particularly strong, reflecting record levels of customer migrations on to the IRP combined with large model upgrades and new product adoption.

現在，我們來談談保險。對我們最先進的高清模型和基於雲端的智慧風險平台的需求推動了 2025 年底 ARR 成長 7%，比過去兩年增加了 21%。展望這兩年非常重要，因為 2024 年表現尤為強勁，反映出客戶向 IRP 遷移的數量創下歷史新高，同時伴隨著大規模的型號升級和新產品採用。

Stepping back, our recent performance underscores the successful integration and execution of growth strategies we laid out for the RMS business following the acquisition. In fact, we completed and slightly exceeded the financial target associated with that transaction, adding $150 million run rate revenue by 2025. Now, achieving that milestone required shifting RMS from flattish growth in 2021 to a high single-digit CAGR, including synergies over a four-year period. That's a transition that was supported by sustained customer demand and meaningful platform-led upsell activity.

回顧過去，我們近期的業績凸顯了我們在收購 RMS 業務後所製定的成長策略的成功整合和執行。事實上，我們完成了與該交易相關的財務目標，並且略微超過了該目標，到 2025 年將增加 1.5 億美元的年化收入。要實現這一里程碑，就需要將 RMS 從 2021 年的平穩成長轉變為高個位數複合年增長率，並在四年內實現協同效應。這項轉型得益於持續的客戶需求和平台主導的有效的追加銷售活動。

Next, turning to Research and Insights. We achieved 8% ARR growth in this more mature business, underscoring the durability of demand, continued innovation and improved customer retention. As Rob shared, we are enhancing CreditView with an expanding set of Moody's content and agentic solutions that improve productivity, insight generation, and workflow integration. This reinforces its role as a core decision support platform and driving continued option.

接下來，我們來看研究與洞察部分。我們在這個較成熟的業務領域實現了 8% 的 ARR 成長，這凸顯了需求的持久性、持續的創新以及客戶留存率的提高。正如 Rob 所分享的，我們正在透過不斷擴展的穆迪內容和代理解決方案來增強 CreditView，從而提高生產力、洞察力生成和工作流程整合。這鞏固了其作為核心決策支援平台和推動持續選擇的作用。

Finally, Data and Information delivered 7% ARR growth, supported by strong pricing power and sustained customer demand across two distinct but complementary areas. Ratings data fees are the primary growth driver within the segment, with ARR growth well above the overall line of business. And that underscores their decision great nature and central role in customers' credit, risk, and investment workflows.

最後，數據和資訊業務實現了 7% 的 ARR 成長，這得益於強大的定價能力和兩個不同但互補的領域中持續的客戶需求。評級數據費用是該細分市場的主要成長動力，其年度經常性收入成長遠高於整體業務線的成長。這凸顯了他們的決策在客戶的信貸、風險和投資流程中的偉大意義和核心作用。

In parallel, our decision grade data estate, which includes company ownership, people, and news, is increasingly embedded in customer workflows across a wide range of third-party risk use cases. Now, growth in this area can vary year-to-year based on deal mix, including the timing of closure of renewals of large enterprise-wide data agreements versus sales to smaller institutions. And as we shared, 2025 was impacted by those related cancellations across several US government agencies. Excluding these items, underlying demand and customer engagement remains solid. We've had several notable Orbis wins in the fourth quarter, including one with a large global bank for enterprise-wide access and a new partnership with one of the world's largest asset managers underscoring the breadth, relevance, and durability of our data estate.

同時，我們的決策級資料資產（包括公司所有權、人員和新聞）正日益融入各種第三方風險用例的客戶工作流程中。現在，該領域的成長可能會因交易組合的不同而逐年變化，包括大型企業級數據協議續約的完成時間與向小型機構銷售的時間。正如我們之前提到的，2025 年美國多個政府機構都受到了這些相關取消的影響。排除這些因素，潛在需求和客戶參與度依然穩健。我們在第四季度取得了幾個值得關注的 Orbis 合作項目，包括與一家大型全球銀行達成企業級訪問權限協議，以及與全球最大的資產管理公司之一建立新的合作夥伴關係，這凸顯了我們數據資產的廣度、相關性和持久性。

Turning to margin. As I mentioned earlier, Moody's Analytics delivered ahead of the target we originally set for 2025. And that's even as we absorbed acquisition-related headwinds and continue to invest in future growth. What differentiates Moody's Analytics is our ability to invest in growth while expanding margins. We expect to be able to sustain this balance for the years to come. Because beyond near-term cost actions, we're making structural changes to how roles are set up in our core processes.

轉向邊距。正如我之前提到的，穆迪分析公司提前實現了我們最初設定的 2025 年目標。即便我們承受了收購帶來的不利影響，並繼續投資於未來的成長，我們也依然取得了這樣的成績。穆迪分析公司的獨特之處在於，我們能夠在擴大利潤率的同時投資於成長。我們預計在未來幾年內能夠維持這種平衡。因為除了短期成本控制措施之外，我們也正在對核心流程中的角色設定方式進行結構性調整。

Let me give you an example. We're building out a single standard GenAI-led product development life cycle process across MA, which we expect will drive higher productivity, improved quality, and faster delivery for customers. In parallel, we are embedding advanced analytics and GenAI into other core workflows, such as sales account planning, which allows us to scale impact and customer value without proportional increases in headcount.

我舉個例子。我們正在整個 MA 建立一個統一的 GenAI 主導的產品開發生命週期流程標準，我們預計這將為客戶帶來更高的生產力、更好的品質和更快的交付速度。同時，我們將高階分析和 GenAI 嵌入到其他核心工作流程中，例如銷售客戶規劃，這使我們能夠在不按比例增加員工人數的情況下擴大影響力和客戶價值。

Turning to MIS. Fourth quarter revenue was up 17% year-over-year, and the performance here was driven by activity that was very strong, particularly in the investment-grade asset class within Corporate Finance, where tight spreads, strong investor demand, and several large jumbo deals from hyperscalers supported record issuance. Project and Infrastructure Finance also had near record issuance in the quarter.

轉向管理資訊系統。第四季營收年增 17%，這一業績主要得益於強勁的業務活動，尤其是在企業融資領域的投資級資產類別，該類別中利差收窄、投資者需求強勁，以及來自超大規模企業的幾筆巨額交易，都推動了創紀錄的發行量。項目和基礎設施融資在本季也接近創紀錄的發行量。

Private credit across all asset classes grew 40% in Q4 from particularly strong activity from finance and securitization. Transactional revenue increased 22% in Q4, supported by 10% issuance growth and a more favorable mix as lower yield bank loan repricing activity declined versus the prior year quarter. MIS recurring revenue was particularly strong, up 9% year-over-year in Q4.

第四季度，所有資產類別的私人信貸成長了 40%，其中金融和證券化領域的活動尤其強勁。第四季交易收入成長 22%，這得益於發行量成長 10% 以及更有利的組合，因為與去年同期相比，低收益銀行貸款重新定價活動有所減少。MIS 經常性營收表現尤為強勁，第四季較去年同期成長 9%。

Turning to margins. MIS delivered a full year adjusted operating margin of 63.6%, representing 350 basis points of year-over-year expansion. And that reflects strong operating leverage in the Ratings business, driven by continued technology investments and disciplined capital allocation. Looking forward, we expect investment needs will continue to increase, and that remains an attractive funding source.

轉向邊際效應。MIS全年調整後營業利益率為63.6%，較去年成長350個基點。這反映了評級業務強大的經營槓桿作用，這得益於持續的技術投資和嚴格的資本配置。展望未來，我們預期投資需求將持續成長，而這仍然是一個有吸引力的融資來源。

Accumulative monetary conditions, declining default rates, and healthy investor demand for yield should support access to capital across sectors. For the full year 2026, we expect total issuance to increase at a low single-digit percent pace, followed by ongoing refinancing needs and 40% to 45% increase in debt-funded M&A issuance. We also expect ongoing growth from private credit as well as issuance from hyperscalers and AI-driven data centers.

貨幣環境趨於穩定、違約率下降以及投資者對收益的旺盛需求，應該能夠支持各行業獲得資本。預計 2026 年全年債券發行總量將以較低的個位數百分比速度成長，隨後將出現持續的再融資需求，以及債務融資併購發行量增加 40% 至 45%。我們也預計，來自私人信貸以及超大規模資料中心和人工智慧驅動型資料中心的債券發行也將持續成長。

Based on our issuance outlook, we expect MIS revenue for 2026 to grow at a high single-digit percent pace. Our forecast project year-over-year growth across all four quarters, strongest in the first half and moderating in the second. We're projecting a full year operating margin of approximately 65%, that's up 150 basis points versus 2025.

根據我們的發行展望，我們預計 2026 年 MIS 收入將以接近兩位數的百分比速度成長。我們的預測顯示，所有四個季度都將實現同比增長，上半年增速最快，下半年增速放緩。我們預計全年營業利潤率約為 65%，比 2025 年提高 150 個基點。

For Moody's Analytics, reported revenue guidance is at the high end of mid-single-digit growth, including a 180-basis-point headwind to year-to-year growth from the divestiture of our Learning Solutions business. Adjusting for the effect of this divestiture and uneven foreign exchange rates across the two years, we expect organic constant currency recurring revenue growth to be aligned with ARR in the high single-digit percent range.

穆迪分析公司公佈的營收預期處於個位數中段成長的高端，其中包括因剝離學習解決方案業務而導致的同比增長 180 個基點的不利影響。考慮到此次資產剝離和兩年間匯率波動的影響，我們預期有機固定匯率經常性收入成長將與 ARR 保持同步，達到較高的個位數百分比。

From a margin perspective, our 34% to 35% adjusted operating margin outlook reflect approximately 150 basis points of improvement at the midpoint. Putting this all together, we expect MCO revenue growth in the high single-digit percent range and MCO adjusted operating margin, likewise expanding by 150 bps to the [50% -- 53%] range for 2026.

從利潤率的角度來看，我們調整後的營業利潤率預期為 34% 至 35%，其中數值約為 150 個基點的改善。綜合以上因素，我們預期 2026 年 MCO 營收成長將達到個位數百分比的高位，MCO 調整後的營業利潤率也將相應成長 150 個基點，達到 [50% - 53%] 的區間。

Our 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance is $16.40 to $17, implying approximately 12% growth at the midpoint. We expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 25% in 2026, a more normalized overall rate after we realized a sizable M&A-related onetime benefit in 2025. We've also added a new appendix slide with additional detail to provide further insights into the key drivers of our results and 2026 outlook assumptions.

我們對 2026 年調整後稀釋每股收益的預期為 16.40 美元至 17 美元，其中值意味著約 12% 的增長。我們預計 2026 年的實際稅率將在 23% 至 25% 之間，這是一個更正常的總體稅率，因為我們在 2025 年實現了與併購相關的可觀的一次性收益。我們也新增了附錄投影片，其中包含更多細節，以便更深入了解我們業績的關鍵驅動因素和 2026 年展望假設。

Lastly, we're expecting free cash flow to be in the range of $2.8 billion to $3 billion, 13% growth at the midpoint. Now, this guide is impacted by a notable $100 million increase in CapEx for the build-out of our New York headquarters and London office space. We expect to repurchase approximately $2 billion in shares during the year and announced a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend.

最後，我們預計自由現金流將在 28 億美元至 30 億美元之間，中位數為 13%。現在，由於紐約總部和倫敦辦公空間的建設，資本支出顯著增加了 1 億美元，本指南也因此受到影響。我們預計年內將回購約 20 億美元的股票，並宣布將季度股利提高 10%。

Overall, our capital plan calls for a return of at least 90% of our free cash flow to shareholders in 2026. Given the recent market activity in our sector and our strong fundamentals and durable growth outlook, you can expect us to be aggressively buying back shares at these levels.

總體而言，我們的資本計畫要求在 2026 年將至少 90% 的自由現金流返還給股東。鑑於我們行業近期的市場活動、我們強勁的基本面以及可持續的成長前景，您可以預期我們將在當前價位積極回購股票。

In short, both our 2025 results and our outlook for 2026 demonstrate the strength and differentiation of our financial profile and confidence in our ability to continue to deliver long-term value for shareholders.

簡而言之，我們 2025 年的業績和 2026 年的展望都體現了我們財務狀況的實力和差異化優勢，以及我們對繼續為股東創造長期價值的能力的信心。

And with that, operator, we're now happy to take questions.

好了，操作員，我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）柯蒂斯·納格爾，美國銀行。

Terrific. Maybe Rob, just a quick one from you. Just from a portfolio perspective for MA, it seems like it's in a pretty good place. But I guess, do you feel like, at this point, you have the right assets, the highest growth, the ones you think are most confident in terms of investment? Or should we expect more paring this year?

了不起。羅伯，或許你只要簡單問一句。單從MA的投資組合角度來看，它似乎處於一個相當不錯的狀態。但我想問的是，您目前是否覺得您擁有合適的資產，成長潛力最大，也是您認為在投資方面最有信心的資產？或者我們應該預期今年會有更多減量？

Curtis, first of all, welcome to the call. It's great to have you on today. I would say we feel very good about the assets and the capabilities that we have. And you heard me talking about this, Curtis, a bit in my prepared remarks. I mean, I think we all understand that data and trusted data is going to be the fuel for AI and especially for the big, regulated institutions that are big customers of ours. And so we feel very good about having built out this massive data estate.

柯蒂斯，首先歡迎你參加通話。今天能請到你真是太好了。我認為我們對自身擁有的資產和能力感到非常滿意。柯蒂斯，你剛才在我的演講稿裡也稍微提到了這一點。我的意思是，我想我們都明白，數據和可信任數據將成為人工智慧的燃料，尤其是對於我們那些受監管的大型機構客戶而言更是如此。因此，我們對建立如此龐大的數據平台感到非常滿意。

And then now, as you heard me talk about, it's about linking that and it's about the ability to draw insights across that network of data. So I think -- and again, I think we also understand that proprietary data sets will be at premiums going forward. And wherever we have an opportunity to add uniquely valuable data into this giant data estate, putting it into our context layer, helping to build out our network graph. I think you're going to see us do that.

而現在，正如你們剛才聽到的，關鍵在於將這些數據連結起來，並能夠從該數據網路中獲取洞見。所以我認為——而且我再次強調，我認為我們也明白，專有資料集在未來將會非常搶手。凡是我們有機會將具有獨特價值的資料添加到這個龐大的資料體系中，將其放入我們的上下文層，幫助建立我們的網路圖。我想你們將會看到我們這樣做。

In terms of the trimming, I think this just -- you hear us talking about where we're making the more concentrated bets. And I talked about lending and credit decisioning, KYC and compliance and insurance. And those are the places where we think we bring the strongest set of capabilities, the deepest customer relationships that give us the strongest right to win. And so we felt there was just an opportunity to look across the portfolio at things that weren't as central to that and had an opportunity to, as you said, kind of prune the portfolio and allow us to focus even more on the areas of the greatest scalable growth opportunities.

就縮減規模而言，我認為這只是——你會聽到我們談論我們正在加大集中投資的領域。我還談到了貸款和信貸決策、KYC 和合規性以及保險。我們認為，在這些地方，我們擁有最強大的能力，與客戶建立了最深厚的聯繫，這使我們最有理由贏得勝利。因此，我們覺得有機會審視投資組合中那些並非核心的部分，正如你所說，有機會精簡投資組合，讓我們能夠更加專注於最具可擴展成長機會的領域。

Alex Kramm, UBS Financial.

Alex Kramm，瑞銀金融。

I want to stay on MA. Thanks to both of you for all the AI detail, a lot of impressive stats. On the flip side though, it doesn't sound like it's really translating into ARR revenue yet, maybe it is. But obviously, if we look at the guidance and the results, relative to your medium-term outlook, those have kind of softened a bit. So I guess the question is, when is AI really going to contribute? And if it's already contributing, are there some other issues elsewhere in the business. So maybe an open question there.

我想留在馬薩諸塞州。感謝二位提供的關於人工智慧的詳細信息，很多數據都非常出色。但另一方面，這似乎還沒有真正轉化為年度經常性收入，也許已經轉化成了。但顯然，如果我們看一下業績指引和結果，相對於其中期展望而言，這些都略有放緩。所以我想問的是，人工智慧何時才能真正發揮作用？如果這已經造成了損失，那麼公司其他方面是否存在一些問題？所以，這或許是一個懸而未決的問題。

Alex, thanks. And I think in a way, there's kind of two parts that I want to unpack in that question. The first is kind of your observation around the trajectory of MA. And I would say that our fourth quarter ARR was in line with the third quarter. And as you'd expect, when you've got I'm going to say, kind of a portfolio, we're selling into very different customer bases. There's some puts and takes in terms of what's growing faster and what's growing not as fast.

Alex，謝謝。我認為這個問題其實包含兩個面向，我想從這個角度來分析。第一點是您對移動平均線軌跡的觀察。我認為我們第四季的年度經常性收入與第三季持平。正如你所預料的那樣，當你擁有一個產品組合時，我們的客戶群就非常不同了。對於哪些領域成長較快，哪些領域成長較慢，存在一些觀點與看法。

If you look at kind of the ARR trend across the portfolio in 2025, I think you'd see that actually banking, research and data actually picked up a little bit, and we had some headwinds with insurance and KYC. And as you heard Noémie mention, we've talked about before in the call, some of that with KYC was impacted by those. And you see our guide. That's consistent with these growth rates. I talked about the new products and the cross-sell and upgrade pathways that are going to drive that growth.

如果你觀察一下 2025 年整個投資組合的 ARR 趨勢，我認為你會發現，實際上銀行業、研究和數據業務略有成長，而保險業和 KYC 業務則遇到了一些阻力。正如你聽到 Noémie 提到的，我們之前在電話會議中也談過，KYC 的一些方面受到了這些因素的影響。您可以看到我們的嚮導。這與這些增長率相符。我談到了新產品以及將推動成長的交叉銷售和升級途徑。

But I think maybe one other point I want to just double-click on. Everybody wants to understand how much revenue is being generated by AI. And there were two stats that again, I want to come back to because I do think they are leading indicators for us.

但我認為還有一點需要我雙擊強調。每個人都想知道人工智慧能創造多少收入。還有兩項統計數據我想再次提及，因為我認為它們是我們的領先指標。

One, is the fact that those largest accounts for us are growing at about twice as fast as the rest of the portfolio. That's really important because that's where we have the deepest engagement with the most sophisticated institutions on the planet, and that's where they all want to be able to consume our content and bring it into their own AI workflow orchestration platforms and consume it through AI portals. So there is a lot of AI-oriented engagement with those big institutions. That's what's driving and importantly, driving that growth.

其一是，我們最大的那些帳戶的成長速度大約是其他帳戶成長速度的兩倍。這非常重要，因為我們與全球最先進的機構建立了最深入的聯繫，而他們都希望能夠透過人工智慧入口網站獲取我們的內容，並將其導入到他們自己的人工智慧工作流程編排平台中。因此，這些大型機構在人工智慧方面有許多合作。這就是推動成長的因素，而且是推動成長的關鍵因素。

And then second, we have that stat about the cohort of customers who have bought at least one stand-alone or packet or upgraded into an AI solution, that's growing twice as fast, again, because of the level of engagement.

其次，我們還有一個統計數據，就是至少購買過一個獨立產品或軟體包，或是升級到 AI 解決方案的客戶群，其成長速度是原來的兩倍，這同樣是因為他們的參與度很高。

So I think, Alex, I feel good that the most sophisticated institutions are where we've got the most growth and the most engagement around AI. And our view is that that's going to then trickle through the rest of the customer base over time.

所以我覺得，Alex，最成熟的機構在人工智慧領域取得了最大的成長和最高的參與度，這讓我感到欣慰。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這種理念會逐漸滲透到其他客戶群中。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

I was just hoping on the rating side, if could just help us with the cadence for the year in terms of how you assume the issuance trajectory there?

我只是希望在評級方面，您能幫我們估算一下今年的發行節奏，以及您是如何預測發行軌蹟的？

Yeah. Manav, great to have you on the call. So I'm going to start with issuance and then maybe I'll just -- I'll go into revenue real quickly for you because I know that will be helpful.

是的。馬納夫，很高興你能參加通話。所以我先從發行開始，然後也許我會——我會很快地為你講一下收入，因為我知道這會有幫助。

So we're expecting issuance activity like we typically do, to be more heavily weighted towards the first half of the year. We have very attractive market conditions. And there's, I would say, a relatively strong start to the year as well. And that's also in line with what we've been hearing from the banks, who we've been talking to, who think that the issuance, again, it will be a little bit front-loaded in the first half of the year.

因此，我們預計發行活動將像往常一樣，並且更加集中在上半年。我們擁有非常有利的市場條件。而且，我認為今年開局也相當不錯。這也與我們從銀行聽到的消息一致，我們一直在和銀行交談，他們認為債券發行量將再次集中在上半年。

To give you a sense, that's probably, mid-50s percent of total issuance is going to be in the first half of the year, at least that's what we're modeling. That was pretty consistent with '23 and '24. '25 was a little more back-end loaded, I think, as you know. And that's also a pretty consistent pattern that we see with frequent issuers.

簡單來說，今年上半年的發行量可能佔總發行量的 50% 左右，至少我們目前的模式預測是如此。這與 2023 年和 2024 年的情況基本一致。我認為，2025 年的情況則更集中在後半段，你也知道。而且，我們在頻繁發卡機構也看到了相當一致的模式。

So to put a finer point on it, Manav, we're expecting issuance to grow in the first half of '26 in the kind of high single-digit range versus the first half of last year and to decline mid-single digit in the second half. And in the first quarter, in particular, we think we're going to see kind of high 20s percent of issuance in terms of -- as a percent of the full year.

更確切地說，Manav，我們預計 2026 年上半年債券發行量將比去年上半年成長近 10%，下半年將下降 50%。尤其是在第一季度，我們認為發行量將達到全年發行量的 20% 左右。

Now, when we go to revenue, it's a little less pronounced in terms of the being front-end loaded. So I would say from a revenue perspective, we expect it to be somewhere in the low to mid-50s percent of revenue in the first half of the year. I think importantly, we do expect revenue growth in each quarter of the year. We think that we're going to be somewhere in the mid-teens for revenue growth in the first half of the year and somewhere in kind of the low single-digit range for the second half of the year. And for the first quarter, probably somewhere in the mid-20s percent.

現在，當我們談到收入時，前期收益集中化的現象就沒那麼明顯了。因此，從收入的角度來看，我們預計上半年收入的50%左右。我認為重要的是，我們預計今年每季的營收都會成長。我們認為今年上半年營收成長率將在15%左右，下半年則將在個位數低點。第一季度，大概在20%左右。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

I've been getting an increasing number of questions recently around how much of your data is proprietary, the sources of your data, and which parts and how much of MA is based on proprietary data. I was just hoping that you could dimensionalize this in a way that you think is most helpful for investors.

最近我收到越來越多的問題，詢問你們的資料有多少是專有的，你們的資料來源是什麼，以及MA的哪些部分和多少部分是基於專有資料。我只是希望您能以您認為對投資者最有幫助的方式來闡述這個問題。

Yeah. Toni, rather than me sitting here and trying to convince you of some statistic. Let me help you think about it in slightly a different way. And this is about why we think we are well positioned in an AI world.

是的。東尼，與其讓我坐在這裡試圖用一些統計數據來說服你，不如讓我告訴你。讓我幫你從另一個角度思考這個問題。這就是我們認為我們在人工智慧領域佔據有利地位的原因。

And first, as you said, like we all understand we have a massive proprietary data estate. And you heard me talk about we're in the process of unifying all of that, all the data, the models, the ratings, the research, the risk assessments into really a single normalized record for each entity. And that is going to be able to give us the ability to create a very, very powerful knowledge graph, right? And then we're going to keep adding to that. And that is going to enable the agents to be able to access a comprehensive interconnected view of any entity. And as I said, give unique insights and allow for richer decision-making.

首先，正如您所說，我們都知道我們擁有龐大的專有數據資產。你們也聽我說過，我們正在將所有這些數據、模型、評級、研究、風險評估整合到一個統一的記錄中，每個實體對應一個標準化的記錄。這將使我們能夠創建一個非常非常強大的知識圖譜，對吧？然後我們還會繼續增加。這將使代理商能夠存取任何實體的全面互聯視圖。正如我所說，提供獨特的見解，並有助於做出更豐富的決策。

But the second thing, I think this is important is we're assembling all of that into what we call -- and you might have heard me use this term a trusted context layer. So that context layer sits between the raw data assets and the reasoning engines. So it makes the data usable for reasoning. And what that is, is a structured governed representation of what the data means, how it relates across entities and time and scenarios, when and why the data should be applied and much, much more, right? It is a deep contextual understanding of the data.

但我認為第二點很重要，那就是我們將所有這些整合到我們稱之為——你可能已經聽我使用過這個術語——可信上下文層的東西。因此，上下文層位於原始資料資產和推理引擎之間。這樣一來，數據就可用於推理了。那它就是對資料的意義、資料在不同實體、時間、場景之間的關聯、何時以及為什麼應該應用資料等等進行結構化、受控的表示，對吧？這是對數據的深刻理解。

Orbis, obviously, a very important part of this massive data state is a great example. It's not just company data. It's years of entity resolution, ownership mapping, expert judgment, and of course, a complex ecosystem of licenses and IP rights. And we've built all of that context directly into our analytics, our methodologies, and our models so that then the outputs are accurate, they're explainable and they're defensible. And as you've heard me say, and I love this term, they're decision grade. So hopefully, that gives you a sense. It's all of that together that makes our data, I think, uniquely valuable.

Orbis顯然是這個龐大資料體系中非常重要的一部分，就是一個很好的例子。不僅僅是公司數據。這涉及到多年的實體解析、所有權映射、專家判斷，當然還有複雜的許可和智慧財產權生態系統。我們將所有這些背景資訊直接融入我們的分析、方法和模型中，以便輸出結果準確、可解釋且有理有據。正如我之前所說（我很喜歡這個說法），它們是決策級的。希望這能讓你有所了解。我認為，正是所有這些因素加在一起，使得我們的數據具有獨特的價值。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC.

阿什什·薩巴德拉，RBC。

I wanted to ask a follow-up question on AI. Thanks for highlighting the AI resilience and strong demand for the agentic solution. One of the investor concerns lately have focused on the adoption of white coding and verticalized LLM offerings such as Claude for Financial Services and those potentially impacting vertical software or workflow solution. Can you talk about the moat around the software or vertical solutions within MA?

我想就人工智慧問題問一個後續問題。感謝您強調人工智慧的韌性以及對智能體解決方案的強勁需求。最近，投資者關注的焦點之一是白程式碼和垂直化LLM產品（如Claude for Financial Services）的採用，以及這些產品可能對垂直軟體或工作流程解決方案產生的影響。能談談MA領域軟體或垂直解決方案的競爭優勢嗎？

Yeah, Ashish. Great to have you on the call. Again, I think the way to think about this, and it's interesting if you think about -- you heard me talk about CreditLens and our lending solution, and that has an AI-enabled layer to all of it from the ingestion of financials to credit decisioning and covenant monitoring and much more.

是的，阿什什。很高興你能參加通話。再說一遍，我認為思考這個問題的方式是，如果你仔細想想——你聽我談到了 CreditLens 和我們的貸款解決方案，它有一個人工智能賦能層，涵蓋了從財務數據的採集到信用決策和契約監控等等各個方面。

You've got different adoption curves with different customer segments. So you heard me say at the high end, almost all of the banks, the big Tier 1 sophisticated banks want to be able to consume our content in a variety of different ways, and it's typically not through software, right? But what they want is we had a bank that's working on agentic.

不同客戶群有不同的採用曲線。所以你聽我說，在高端市場，幾乎所有的銀行，那些大型的、頂級的、成熟的銀行都希望能夠以各種不同的方式獲取我們的內容，而這通常不是透過軟體，對吧？但他們想要的是我們有一個正在開發代理功能的銀行。

I mentioned it in my remarks. They're building an agentic workflow for lending. So while they don't need to adopt CreditLens, what they do want is they want our specialized agents around credit memo generation and early warning that are populated with all of our data and access to our model. So they're consuming it through either through Smart APIs and MCPs or specialized agents that are going right into the workflow that they're building.

我在發言中提到了這一點。他們正在建立一個代理式貸款工作流程。因此，雖然他們不需要採用 CreditLens，但他們想要的是我們專門負責信用備忘錄生成和預警的代理，這些代理擁有我們所有的數據並可以訪問我們的模型。因此，他們要么透過智慧 API 和 MCP，要么透過直接進入他們正在建立的工作流程的專用代理來使用它。

So for me, again, it comes back -- we talk about we're going to be wherever our customers want us to be. If you are a Tier 3 bank and you want a lending software platform that's enabled with AI and has access to a lot of our -- we're going to sell that to you. If you want our content through, as I said, different ways to consume the data or specialized agents, we'll do that. If you want to consume it in an enterprise software system, we'll do that.

所以對我來說，歸根結底還是——我們常說，無論客戶希望我們出現在哪裡，我們都會出現在那裡。如果您是一家三級銀行，並且想要一個具備人工智慧功能並能存取我們大量資源的貸款軟體平台——我們將把這個平台賣給您。如我所說，如果您希望透過不同的方式取得資料或透過專業代理商取得我們的內容，我們將竭盡全力滿足您的需求。如果您想在企業軟體系統中使用它，我們會滿足您的需求。

So in a way, Ashish, I'm actually less worried about it because at the end of the day, and we've always talked about this. The software that we have built is simply a delivery chassis for the content. It's not just some business logic that we've sold to a customer. It's a delivery channel for the content. We'll deliver it through software. We'll deliver it into your AI platform. It doesn't matter.

所以從某種程度上來說，阿什什，我其實不太擔心了，因為歸根結底，而且我們一直都在討論這個問題。我們開發的軟體只是內容的交付載體。這不僅僅是我們賣給客戶的一些商業邏輯。它是內容的傳輸管道。我們將透過軟體來實現。我們會將其交付到您的AI平台。沒關係。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

Andrew Steinerman，摩根大通。

I have a simple one. I just wanted to know how much revenue these two MA divestitures affect the MA revenue guide for '26. And then let me just add on to that. I also want to understand how they affect the MA ARR figure. Are divestitures included or excluded when you report MA's ARR?

我有一個簡單的例子。我只是想知道這兩項 MA 資產剝離會對 MA 2026 年的收入預期產生多大影響。然後，我還要補充一點。我還想了解它們如何影響 MA ARR 數據。在報告MA的年度經常性收入時，資產剝離是否包含在內？

Yeah, Andrew. So let me start with the first part of your question in terms of how those affect our guide.

是的，安德魯。那麼，讓我先回答你問題的第一部分，即這些因素如何影響我們的指南。

Learning Solution was actually divested in December. So obviously, for 2025, there's a very immaterial impact. In terms of our outlook, we expect about 1 percentage point of headwind to the MCO revenue growth, and that's reflected in our reported in our outlook for total revenue.

Learning Solution 實際上已於 12 月被剝離。所以很顯然，對於 2025 年來說，影響微乎其微。就我們的展望而言，我們預計 MCO 收入成長將面臨約 1 個百分點的阻力，這已反映在我們對總收入的展望中。

We expect a little under 2 percentage point headwind to the revenue growth -- sorry, 1 percentage point headwind to MCO revenue growth and 2% headwind to MA revenue growth, which is embedded in our guide. And there's -- most of it is one time. That's about 90%.

我們預計收入成長將面臨不到 2 個百分點的阻力——抱歉，MCO 收入成長將面臨 1 個百分點的阻力，MA 收入成長將面臨 2 個百分點的阻力，這已包含在我們的指導方針中。而且──大部分都是一次性的。大約是90%。

Going forward, it should modestly improve the total revenue growth on a pro forma basis that the training revenue was a slower flattish growth. And when it rolls off, that should improve the profile going forward. This is broadly neutral to MA, about 30 basis points MA margin dilution and very minimum for the MCO adjusted operating margin guide.

展望未來，以備考基準計算，培訓收入成長較為緩慢且趨於平穩，這應該會略微改善總收入的成長。當這種情況過去後，應該會改善未來的發展前景。這對 MA 的影響總體上是中性的，MA 利潤率稀釋約 30 個基點，對 MCO 調整後的營業利潤率指引的影響非常小。

Now, for the regulatory business, this is not yet reflected in our guide. We expect the transition to close around midyear of 2026. We'll update our guidance to reflect that impact at the time.

目前，監管業務方面，這一點尚未反映在我們的指南中。我們預計過渡工作將於 2026 年中左右完成。屆時我們將更新我們的指導意見以反映這一影響。

Just to give you a sense of the impact when it closes, we expect about 2 percentage points of headwind to MA reported revenue growth, and that's mostly recurring. We expect 100 basis points tailwind of MCO adjusted expense growth and about 10 basis points dilution on MCO margin. This will also have a minor $0.05 to $0.10 adjusted EPS impact. It depends on when the timing of the transaction closes as we anticipate to redeploy some of the sales proceeds to additional share buybacks.

為了讓您了解關閉後的影響，我們預計 MA 報告的收入成長將受到約 2 個百分點的不利影響，而且這主要是經常性影響。我們預計 MCO 調整後費用成長將帶來 100 個基點的利好，而 MCO 利潤率將稀釋約 10 個基點。這將對每股收益調整後產生0.05美元至0.10美元的輕微影響。這取決於交易何時完成，因為我們預計將把部分銷售所得用於額外的股票回購。

Just on your last question about ARR and constant currency organic recurring revenue. This is what ARR is adjusted to eliminate the effects of divestitures and acquisitions, and we expect both of those to grow high single digit in 2026.

關於您最後一個關於 ARR 和固定匯率下的有機經常性收入的問題。這是調整後的 ARR，以消除資產剝離和收購的影響，我們預計這兩項在 2026 年都將實現高個位數成長。

Owen Lau, Clear Street.

歐文·勞，克利爾街。

I want to go back to your MIS margin guide, which is better than expected. And I think it's even higher than your medium-term guidance, which is around low 60%. Could you please talk about the driver of the strength? And how should we think about your medium-term guide from here?

我想回到你們的 MIS 邊際指南，它比預期的要好。而且我認為這甚至高於你們的中期預期，你們的中期預期約為 60% 出頭。請您談談這種力量的驅動因素？那麼，我們該如何看待您提出的中期發展計畫呢？

Yeah. So we're guiding adjusted operating margins for Moody's Ratings of about 65%. I think those two components, obviously, revenue and transaction revenue growth. But we've also made significant investments, if you recall, over the past couple of years or three, four years on technology enablement. And around our data, and Rob talked a lot about the value of the ratings data feeds and all the data that our analysts produce, all the insights. So we've done a lot of work around that.

是的。因此，我們預期穆迪評級調整後的營業利潤率約為 65%。我認為這兩個因素顯然是關鍵，即營收成長和交易營收成長。但如果你還記得的話，在過去幾年，或者說三、四年裡，我們也對科技賦能進行了大量投資。圍繞著我們的數據，羅布談到了很多關於評分數據饋送的價值，以及我們的分析師產生的所有數據和所有見解。所以我們在這方面做了很多工作。

We've also equipped our ratings analysts with pockets of automation tools to be more efficient and spend more time on actually -- on ratings committee, spending time with issuers and less so on more administrative tasks. And that's really driving increased operating leverage.

我們也為評級分析師配備了一些自動化工具，以提高效率，讓他們能夠將更多的時間花在實際工作上——例如在評級委員會工作、與發行人交流，而不是在行政任務上。而這正是推動營運槓桿作用提升的真正原因。

We're still investing in the ratings while at the same time, improving and getting those margins level. We're investing in analytical staff to support, obviously, the volume but also areas like private credit. We are looking to also on our commercial efforts as well as methodology groups and technology more broadly. So we're still investing in Moody's Ratings and at the same time, expanding margin through those investments in technology.

我們仍在加大對評級的投入，同時也努力提高利潤率，使其達到平衡。我們正在投資分析人員，這顯然是為了支持業務量成長，但也是為了支持私人信貸等領域。我們也希望在商業努力、方法論團隊以及更廣泛的技術領域中取得進展。因此，我們仍在投資穆迪評級，同時透過對科技的投資來擴大利潤率。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber，Huber Research Partners。

Rob, I thought you did a really good job talking about your AI moats that you have. But just a little further on that.

羅布，我覺得你談到你們的人工智慧護城河時講得非常好。但關於這一點，我們再進一步討論。

Within Moody's Analytics, there's obviously concern out there with investors. You can see it in your stock price and your peers as well, that AI firms or firms that pop up or exist that have AI tools over time could replicate what you guys do when parts of your MA operation. Can you just talk a little bit further about the moats or where do you think -- just to talk on the other side of this, where do you think maybe you are vulnerable to a third-party AI initiative that takes some share away from there on a meaningful basis.

穆迪分析公司內部顯然也存在著投資人擔憂的問題。從你們的股價以及同業的股價可以看出，人工智慧公司或那些擁有人工智慧工具的公司，隨著時間的推移，可能會複製你們在部分管理會計作業中所做的工作。您能否再詳細談談護城河，或者您認為——換個角度來說，您認為在哪些方面您可能容易受到第三方人工智慧計劃的衝擊，從而在實質層面上被奪走一些市場份額？

And then on the second way to look at this is there's a lot of concern out there, people talking about that AI is going to ravage the white collar workforces out there in the US, around the world. Talk to us, if you would, about MA, how you price your product here. It's not really on a per seat basis, but if white-collar headcount out there goes down 25% plus, just say hypothetically, at a lot of your institutions, how will that impact how you get paid, how much you get paid when contracts come up for renewal? Not existing contracts, but when they come up for renewal, how may that impact your discussions there?

其次，從另一個角度來看，許多人擔心人工智慧將對美國乃至全世界的白領勞動力造成毀滅性打擊。如果您方便的話，請和我們談談MA的情況，以及您在這裡是如何為您的產品定價的。這並非按席位計算，但假設你們許多機構的白領人數減少了 25% 以上，這會對你們的薪酬產生什麼影響？合約續約時，你們的薪酬會受到怎樣的影響？不是現有的合同，而是當合約到期續約時，這會對你們的談判產生什麼影響？

Yeah, Craig, some good stuff there. Thanks for the questions. Let me just talk a little bit -- I'm going to go back to Orbis for a moment because it's one of our biggest parts of our data estate. And we get questions about this. And I would say a few things in terms of that -- make it very hard to replicate that I do not think are understood.

是的，克雷格，這裡面有些好東西。謝謝大家的提問。讓我簡單說幾句——我要再回到 Orbis 上來一會兒，因為它是我們資料資產中最重要的部分之一。我們常常會收到關於這方面的問題。關於這一點，我想說幾點——要讓它很難被複製，而我認為這一點還沒有被理解。

First of all, a lot of the data just simply isn't available to the public. We have a complex ecosystem of commercial agreements and IP rights. I mean that has taken us decades to build and we're constantly curating that.

首先，很多數據根本就不對外開放。我們擁有複雜的商業協議和知識產權生態系統。我的意思是，這是我們花了數十年才建立起來的，而且我們還在不斷地維護和完善它。

Second, there's legal and regulatory issues, privacy laws, and export controls and all sorts of things that our customers need to know that we're abiding by, right, if they're going to use the data. There's semantic complexity. This gets into things in different jurisdictions mean different things. And models have a lot of challenges with semantic drift. So that's where we've been curating all this and our local experts over decades, understand what different things mean in different locations.

其次，還有法律和監管問題、隱私權法、出口管制以及各種各樣的事項，我們的客戶需要知道我們遵守這些規定，對吧，如果他們要使用這些資料的話。這裡存在語義複雜性。這就牽涉到不同司法管轄區對同一件事的不同意義了。模型在語意漂移方面面臨許多挑戰。所以，這就是我們幾十年來一直在整理這些內容的地方，我們的當地專家也了解不同事物在不同地方的意義。

And then they're cleansing and normalizing that data to make it valuable. There's entity resolution and ownership inference. And by the way, the models are not simply doing entity resolution. That is a really important thing to be able to resolve against the right entity. And we've combined probabilistic models, human-in-the-loop validation and proprietary logic, and we've been doing this over years and years and years.

然後他們對這些數據進行清洗和標準化處理，使其有價值。存在實體解析和所有權推斷。順便說一句，這些模型不僅僅是進行實體解析。能夠找到正確的實體來解決這個問題非常重要。我們將機率模型、人機互動驗證和專有邏輯結合，並且多年來一直致力於此。

And then we've got all this historical depth, right? So we have a lot of historical depth and in some cases, the data has either been archived or it doesn't exist in digital forms. It's not easy to get some of that history.

而我們還擁有如此深厚的歷史底蘊，對吧？因此，我們擁有豐富的歷史資料，但在某些情況下，資料要麼已被存檔，要麼根本不存在數位形式。要了解那段歷史並不容易。

And then finally, governance. And I got to tell you, Craig, every bank I talk to tells me good enough is not good enough for our institution. What they want from us, they want to move, in many cases, to fewer trusted providers. So they want us to be able to meet their needs.

最後，是治理問題。克雷格，我得告訴你，我諮詢過的每家銀行都告訴我，對我們機構來說，「差不多就行」是不夠的。他們想要從我們這裡得到的，在很多情況下，就是轉移到那些不太值得信賴的供應商那裡。所以他們希望我們能夠滿足他們的需求。

And look, I'll acknowledge, Craig, that things like automated data ingestion and things like that will be done by AI. But it's those things that I talked about. And it's not just Orbis. You could go across a number of other data sets that we have, and the same is true. So hopefully, that gives you a sense.

克雷格，我承認，像是自動資料收集之類的事情將由人工智慧來完成。但我說的就是這些事。而且不僅僅是 Orbis。你可以查看我們擁有的其他許多資料集，結果也是一樣。希望這能讓你有所了解。

Now, let me talk about how do we price the product. And we've never had seat-based licenses. That's not the way we've operated. We've always tried to kind of think about value in our pricing schedules. But look, we are starting to trial in parts of the business, different pricing models, right? And thinking about elements, bringing in elements of consumption-based pricing that I think will be more closely aligned to outcomes, right?

現在，讓我來談談我們如何為產品定價。我們從來沒有按座位數發放許可證。我們並非以這種方式行事。我們在定價策略中一直努力考慮價值因素。但是，我們正在部分業務中試行不同的定價模式，對吧？考慮到各種因素，引入基於消費的定價因素，我認為這將與結果更加緊密地聯繫在一起，對吧？

Because at the end of the day, Craig, what you're talking about, if there is a substantial labor replacement, somebody, and some companies are going to capture some of that opportunity. Maybe not all of it, but they're going to capture, right? And that is going to be, in my opinion, a combination of the model providers and the data providers who are making that efficiency possible. And so we are going -- we are thinking -- as we speak, and trialing different pricing models to be able to capture some of that, frankly, some of that upside.

歸根究底，克雷格，你所說的，如果出現大規模的勞動力替代，那麼總是會有人，一些公司，抓住這個機會。或許不能全部都拍到，但他們一定會拍到，對吧？我認為，這將取決於模型提供者和資料提供者的共同努力，而正是他們共同努力使得這種效率成為可能。所以，我們正在——我們正在思考——一邊說話一邊嘗試不同的定價模式，以便能夠獲得一些，坦白說，一些好處。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Rob for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給羅布，請他作總結發言。

Hey, thanks, everybody, for joining today. And for my colleagues at Moody's, let's go. Talk to you next time. Bye.

嘿，謝謝大家今天參加。還有我在穆迪的同事們，讓我們出發吧。下次再聊。再見。

This concludes Moody's Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call.

穆迪公司2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議到此結束。

As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you.

提醒各位，本次電話會議結束後，本公司將立即在穆迪投資者關係主頁的投資者資源部分發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，電話會議結束後，穆迪投資者關係網站將提供重播。謝謝。