摩根大通 (JPM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go to the live presentation. Please stand by. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加摩根大通 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）我們現在進入現場演示。請稍候。現在，我想把電話轉給摩根大通董事長兼執行長傑米戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）；和財務長傑里米·巴納姆。巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.

謝謝大家，大家早安。該演示文稿可在我們的網站上獲取，請參閱後面的免責聲明。

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $9.3 billion, EPS of $3.04 on revenue of $39.9 billion and delivered an ROTCE of 15%. These results included the $2.9 billion FDIC special assessment and $743 million of net investment securities losses in corporate.

從第 1 頁開始。該公司報告淨利潤為 93 億美元，每股收益為 3.04 美元，收入為 399 億美元，ROTCE 為 15%。這些結果包括 29 億美元的 FDIC 特別評估和 7.43 億美元的企業投資證券淨損失。

On Page 2, we have more on our fourth quarter results. Similar to prior quarters, we have called out the impact of First Republic where relevant. You'll also note that we have now allocated certain deposits, which were previously in CCB to the appropriate lines of business. For the quarter, First Republic contributed $1.9 billion of revenue, $890 million of expense and $647 million of net income.

在第二頁，我們有更多關於第四季業績的資訊。與前幾季類似，我們已經指出了第一共和國的相關影響。您也會注意到，我們現在已將先前存放在建行的某些存款分配給相應的業務部門。第一共和國本季貢獻了 19 億美元的收入、8.9 億美元的支出和 6.47 億美元的淨利。

Now focusing on the firm-wide fourth quarter results excluding First Republic, revenue of $38.1 billion was up $2.5 billion or 7% year-on-year. NII ex Markets was up $2.2 billion or 11% predominantly driven by higher rates. And NIR ex markets was up $139 million or 1%, and Markets revenue was up $141 million or 2%.

現在專注於該公司第四季業績（不包括 First Republic），營收為 381 億美元，年增 25 億美元，成長 7%。除去市場之外的 NII 成長了 22 億美元，即 11%，主要是由於利率上升。 NIR 前市場營收成長 1.39 億美元，成長 1%，市場營收成長 1.41 億美元，成長 2%。

Expenses of $23.6 billion were up $4.6 billion or 24% year-on-year predominantly driven by the FDIC special assessment and higher compensation, including wage inflation and growth in front office and technology. And current costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.2 billion and a net reserve build for $474 million. Net charge-offs were up $1.3 billion predominantly driven by card and single name exposures in wholesale, which were largely previously reserved. The net reserve build was primarily driven by loan growth in card and the deterioration in the outlook related to commercial real estate valuations in the commercial bank.

支出為 236 億美元，年增 46 億美元，即 24%，這主要是由於 FDIC 特別評估和薪酬上漲（包括工資上漲以及前台和技術增長）推動的。目前成本為 26 億美元，反映出 22 億美元的淨沖銷和 4.74 億美元的淨準備金建設。淨沖銷額增加了 13 億美元，主要是由卡片和單一名稱批發風險敞口推動的，這些敞口以前大部分是保留的。淨準備金增加主要是由於銀行卡貸款成長以及商業銀行商業房地產估值前景惡化所致。

Looking at the full year results on Page 3. The firm reported net income $50 billion, EPS of $16.23 and revenue of $162 billion, and we delivered an ROTCE of 21%. On the balance sheet and capital on Page 4. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15%, up 70 basis points versus the prior quarter primarily driven by net income, OCI gains and lower RWA, partially offset by a continued modest pace of capital distributions as the firm builds towards the proposed Basel III end game requirements.

查看第 3 頁的全年業績。該公司報告淨利潤為 500 億美元，每股收益為 16.23 美元，收入為 1620 億美元，ROTCE 為 21%。關於第4 頁的資產負債表和資本。本季結束時，我們的CET1 比率為15%，比上一季上升70 個基點，這主要是由淨利潤、OCI 收益和較低的RWA 推動的，但部分被持續溫和的成長速度所抵消。公司為實現擬議的巴塞爾協議 III 最終要求而進行的資本分配。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting with CCB on Page 5. Total debit and credit card spend was up 7% year-on-year driven by strong account growth, and consumer spend remained stable. Turning now to the financial results, excluding First Republic. CCB reported net income of $4.4 billion on revenue of $17 billion, which was up 8% year-on-year. In Banking & Wealth Management, revenue was up 6% year-on-year, reflecting higher NII on higher rates, largely offset by lower deposits with average balances down 8% year-on-year. Client investment assets were up 25%, driven by market performance and strong net inflows. In fact, it's been a record year for retail net new money. In Home Lending, revenue was up $230 million predominantly driven by the absence of an MSR loss this quarter versus the prior year and higher NII. Moving to Card Services & Auto, revenue was up 8% year-on-year driven by higher card services NII on higher revolving balances, partially offset by lower auto lease income.

現在讓我們來看看我們的業務，從第 5 頁的建行開始。在帳戶強勁增長的推動下，借記卡和信用卡總支出同比增長 7%，消費者支出保持穩定。現在轉向財務業績，不包括第一共和國。建行報告淨利為44億美元，營收為170億美元，年增8%。在銀行與財富管理領域，營收年增 6%，反映出利率上升帶來的 NII 增加，但主要被存款減少（平均餘額年減 8%）所抵銷。在市場表現和強勁淨流入的推動下，客戶投資資產成長了 25%。事實上，今年是零售淨新資金創紀錄的一年。在房屋貸款方面，收入增長了 2.3 億美元，主要是由於本季度與上年相比沒有 MSR 損失以及 NII 更高。至於卡片服務和汽車，由於循環餘額增加導致卡片服務 NII 增加，收入年增 8%，但汽車租賃收入下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Card outstandings were up 14%, due to strong account acquisition and continued normalization of REVOLVE. And in auto, originations were $9.9 billion, up 32% as we gained market share, while retaining strong margins. Expenses of $8.7 billion were up 10% year-on-year, largely driven by compensation, including an increase in employees primarily in bankers, advisers and technology and wage inflation as well as continued investments in marketing and technology. In terms of credit performance this quarter. Credit costs were $2.2 billion, largely driven by net charge-offs, which were up $791 million year-on-year, predominantly due to continued normalization in card. The net reserve build of $538 million reflected loan growth in card.

由於強勁的客戶獲取和 REVOLVE 的持續正常化，信用卡未償餘額增加了 14%。在汽車領域，隨著我們擴大市場份額，同時保持強勁的利潤率，起始金額為 99 億美元，成長了 32%。費用為 87 億美元，年增 10%，這主要是由薪酬推動的，其中包括主要是銀行家、顧問和技術領域的員工增加、工資上漲以及對行銷和技術的持續投資。從本季的信貸表現來看。信貸成本為 22 億美元，主要由淨沖銷推動，淨沖銷年增 7.91 億美元，主要是由於信用卡的持續正常化。淨準備金增加 5.38 億美元反映了信用卡貸款的成長。

Next, the CIB on Page 6. The CIB reported net income of $2.5 billion on revenue of $11 billion. Investment Banking revenue of $1.6 billion was up 13% year-on-year. IB fees were also up 13% year-on-year, and we ended the year ranked #1 with a wallet share of 8.8%.

接下來是第 6 頁的 CIB。CIB 報告淨利潤為 25 億美元，營收為 110 億美元。投資銀行業務收入16億美元，年增13%。 IB 費用也較去年同期成長 13%，我們以 8.8% 的錢包份額排名第一。

In advisory, fees were up 2%. Underwriting fees were up significantly compared to a weak prior year quarter with debt up 21% and equity up 30%. We are starting the year with a healthy pipeline, and we are encouraged by the level of capital markets activity, but announced M&A remains a headwind and the extent as well as the timing of capital markets normalization remains uncertain. Payments revenue was $2.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Excluding equity investments, it was flat as fee growth was predominantly offset by deposit-related client credits.

在諮詢方面，費用上漲了 2%。與去年同期疲軟的情況相比，承銷費用大幅上漲，債務增加 21%，股本增加 30%。我們以健康的管道開始新的一年，資本市場活動的水平令我們感到鼓舞，但宣布的併購仍然是一個阻力，資本市場正常化的程度和時間仍然不確定。支付收入為23億美元，年增10%。不包括股權投資，其持平，因為費用成長主要被與存款相關的客戶信貸所抵消。

Moving to Markets. Total revenue was $5.8 billion, up 2% year-on-year. Fixed income was a record fourth quarter, up 8%. It was another strong quarter in our securitized products business, which was partially offset by lower revenue and rates coming off a strong quarter last year. Equity Markets was down 8% driven by lower revenue in derivatives in cash. Securities Services revenue of $1.2 billion was up 3% year-on-year. Expenses of $6.8 billion were up 4% year-on-year, predominantly driven by the timing of revenue-related compensation. Credit costs were $210 million, reflecting net charge-offs of $121 million and a net reserve build of $89 million.

轉向市場。總收入為58億美元，較去年同期成長2%。第四季固定收益創歷史新高，成長 8%。這是我們證券化產品業務的又一個強勁季度，但去年強勁季度的營收和利率下降部分抵消了這一季度的強勁表現。由於現金衍生性商品收入下降，股市下跌 8%。證券服務收入為12億美元，年增3%。費用為 68 億美元，年增 4%，這主要是由於與收入相關的補償的時間安排所致。信貸成本為 2.1 億美元，反映出淨沖銷 1.21 億美元和淨準備金增加 8,900 萬美元。

Moving to the Commercial Bank on Page 7. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1.5 billion. Revenue of $3.7 billion was up 7% year-on-year, largely driven by higher NII, where the impact of rates was partially offset by lower deposit balances. Payments revenue of $2 billion was up 2% year-on-year driven by fee growth, largely offset by deposit-related client credits. Gross Investment Banking and Markets revenue of $924 million was up 32% year-on-year primarily reflecting increased capital markets and M&A activity. Expenses of $1.4 billion were up 9% year-on-year, driven by an increase in employees, including front office and technology investments as well as higher volume-related expense, including the impact of new client acquisition.

轉向第 7 頁的商業銀行。商業銀行報告淨利潤為 15 億美元。收入為 37 億美元，年增 7%，這主要是由於 NII 上升，而存款餘額下降部分抵消了利率的影響。受費用成長推動，支付收入達到 20 億美元，年增 2%，但很大程度上被存款相關的客戶信貸所抵銷。投資銀行和市場總收入為 9.24 億美元，年增 32%，主要反映資本市場和併購活動的增加。費用為 14 億美元，年增 9%，原因是員工人數增加（包括前台和技術投資）以及與業務量相關的費用增加（包括新客戶獲取的影響）。

Average deposits were down 6% year-on-year, primarily driven by lower nonoperating deposits as clients continue to opt for higher-yielding alternatives and flat quarter-on-quarter as client balances are seasonally higher at year-end. Loans were down 1% quarter-on-quarter. C&I loans were down 2%, reflecting lower revolver utilization and muted demand for new loans as clients remain cautious. And CRE loans were flat as higher rates continue to have an impact on originations and payoff activity. Finally, credit costs were $269 million, including net charge-offs of $127 million and a net reserve build of $142 million, driven by a deterioration in our commercial real estate valuation outlook.

平均存款年減 6%，主要是由於客戶繼續選擇收益較高的替代方案，非經營性存款減少，而由於年底客戶餘額季節性較高，因此與上一季持平。貸款季減1%。 C&I 貸款下降 2%，反映出循環利用率下降以及客戶保持謹慎態度而對新貸款的需求減弱。由於較高的利率持續對發放和還款活動產生影響，商業房地產貸款持平。最後，由於商業房地產估值前景惡化，信貸成本為 2.69 億美元，其中包括 1.27 億美元的淨沖銷和 1.42 億美元的淨準備金增加。

And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 8. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $925 million with pretax margin of 28%. Revenue of $4.7 billion was up 2% year-on-year, driven by higher management fees on strong net inflows and higher average market levels, predominantly offset by lower NII. The decrease in NII reflects lower deposit margins and balances, partially offset by wider spreads on loans.

然後，為了完成我們的業務線，第 8 頁的 AWM。資產與財富管理報告淨利潤為 9.25 億美元，稅前利潤率為 28%。營收為 47 億美元，年增 2%，這是由於強勁的淨流入和較高的平均市場水平導致的管理費上漲，但主要被較低的國家資訊基礎設施所抵消。 NII 的下降反映了存款利差和餘額的下降，但部分被貸款利差擴大所抵消。

Expenses of $3.4 billion were up 11% year-on-year, largely driven by higher compensation, including performance-based incentives, continued growth in our private banking adviser teams, the impact of closing JPMorgan Asset Management China acquisition and the continued investment in global shares. For the quarter, net long-term inflows were $12 billion, positive across equities and fixed income and $140 billion for the full year. In liquidity, we saw net inflows of $49 billion for the quarter and net inflows of $242 billion for the full year. And we have record client asset net inflows of $489 billion for the year. AUM of $3.4 trillion and client assets of $5 trillion were both up 24% year-on-year, driven by continued net inflows and higher market levels. And finally, loans were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and deposits were up 7% quarter-on-quarter.

費用為34 億美元，年增11%，主要是由於薪酬上漲（包括基於績效的激勵措施）、私人銀行顧問團隊的持續增長、完成摩根資產管理中國收購的影響以及對全球業務的持續投資所推動。分享。本季長期淨流入為 120 億美元，股票和固定收益淨流入為正值，全年淨長期流入為 1,400 億美元。在流動性方面，本季淨流入 490 億美元，全年淨流入 2,420 億美元。今年我們的客戶資產淨流入達到創紀錄的 4,890 億美元。在持續的淨流入和較高的市場水準的推動下，管理規模達 3.4 兆美元，客戶資產達 5 兆美元，年增 24%。最後，貸款較上季成長 2%，存款較上季成長 7%。

Turning to Corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net loss of $689 million. Revenue of $1.8 billion was up $597 million year-on-year. NII of $2.5 billion was up $1.2 billion year-on-year, due to the impact of higher rates and balance sheet mix. NIR was a net loss of $687 million compared with a net loss of $115 million and included the net investment securities losses I mentioned upfront. And expenses of $3.4 billion were up $3 billion year-on-year predominantly driven by the FDIC special assessment.

轉向第 9 頁的企業。企業報告淨虧損 6.89 億美元。營收為 18 億美元，年增 5.97 億美元。由於利率上升和資產負債表組合的影響，NII 為 25 億美元，年增 12 億美元。 NIR 的淨虧損為 6.87 億美元，而淨虧損為 1.15 億美元，其中包括我前面提到的淨投資證券虧損。 34 億美元的支出比去年同期增加了 30 億美元，這主要是由 FDIC 特別評估推動的。

With that, let's pivot to the outlook for 2024, starting with NII on Page 10. We expect 2024 NII ex-Markets to be approximately $88 billion. Going through the drivers, the outlook assumes that rates follow the forward curve, which currently includes 6 cuts this year. On deposits. We expect balances to be very modestly down from current levels. While lower rates should decrease repricing pressure, we remain asset sensitive and therefore, lower rates will decrease NII, resulting in more normal deposit margins.

至此，讓我們從第 10 頁的 NII 開始展望 2024 年。我們預計 2024 年 NII 市場前規模約為 880 億美元。縱觀驅動因素，展望假設利率遵循遠期曲線，目前包括今年 6 次降息。關於存款。我們預計餘額將比目前水準小幅下降。雖然較低的利率應該會減少重新定價的壓力，但我們仍然對資產敏感，因此，較低的利率將降低NII，從而導致更正常的存款利潤。

We expect strong loan growth in card to continue but not at the same pace as 2023. Still, this should help offset some of the impact of lower rates. Outside of card, loan growth will likely remain muted. It's important to note that we just reported a quarterly NII ex Markets run rate of $94 billion. Combining that with the full year guidance of approximately $88 billion implies meaningful sequential quarterly declines throughout 2024, consistent with what we've been telling you for some time.

我們預計信用卡貸款將繼續強勁成長，但成長速度將不會與 2023 年相同。不過，這應該有助於抵消利率下降的部分影響。除信用卡之外，貸款成長可能仍將保持低迷。值得注意的是，我們剛剛報告了除市場外的季度 NII 運行率為 940 億美元。將其與約 880 億美元的全年指引相結合，意味著 2024 年將出現顯著的季度環比下降，這與我們一段時間以來一直告訴您的情況一致。

And keep in mind that many of the sources of uncertainty that we've highlighted previously surrounding the NII outlook remain. And on total NII, we expect it to be approximately $90 billion for the full year, reflecting an increase in Markets NII, which, as always, you should think of as largely offset in NIR.

請記住，我們之前強調的圍繞國家資訊基礎設施前景的許多不確定性來源仍然存在。就 NII 總額而言，我們預計全年約為 900 億美元，反映出市場 NII 的增加，與往常一樣，您應該認為這在很大程度上被 NIR 抵消了。

Now let's turn to expenses on Page 11. We expect 2024 adjusted expense to be about $90 billion. You'll see on this slide, we provided detail by line of business. Generally, you can see that both in dollar terms and in percentage terms, the expense growth is aligned to where the greatest opportunities are, both in terms of share and available returns. And of course, you'll hear more at Investor Day and between now and then. On the right-hand side of the page, we've highlighted some firm line drivers. Thematically, the biggest driver is what I might call business growth writ large.

現在讓我們轉向第 11 頁的支出。我們預計 2024 年調整後支出約為 900 億美元。您將在這張投影片上看到，我們按業務線提供了詳細資訊。一般來說，您可以看到，無論是按美元計算還是按百分比計算，費用增長都與最大機會一致，無論是在份額還是可用回報方面。當然，您會在投資者日以及從現在到那時聽到更多消息。在頁面的右側，我們突出顯示了一些固定的線路驅動程式。從主題上講，最大的驅動力就是我所說的「顯而易見的業務成長」。

Within that, narrowly defined volume and revenue-related growth represents about $1 billion of the increase across the company as a result of improved NIR outlook compared to about $400 million in 2023. But in addition, the ongoing growth of the company, which continues to produce share gains and additional profitability, is coming with increased expense across a range of categories. The quantum of investment increase is comparable to last year's increase and is driven by all the same themes: bankers, branches, advisers, technology as well as marketing.

其中，由於 NIR 前景改善，狹義的銷售和收入相關成長佔整個公司成長的約 10 億美元，而 2023 年約為 4 億美元。但除此之外，公司的持續成長，產生份額收益和額外獲利能力的同時，一系列類別的費用也隨之增加。投資成長量與去年的成長相當，並由所有相同的主題驅動：銀行家、分行、顧問、技術以及行銷。

Net-net, First Republic produces a modest increase in expenses but with a significantly lower 2024 exit run rate as the result of business integration efforts. Finally, despite significantly lower inflation outlook in the economy as a whole, we still see some residual effects on inflation flowing through most of our expense categories.

Net-net 的支出略有增加，但由於業務整合的努力，2024 年退出運行率顯著降低。最後，儘管整個經濟的通膨前景明顯較低，但我們仍然看到對我們大部分支出類別的通膨產生一些殘餘影響。

It's worth noting that both the general business growth and investment growth include decisions that have been executed, both in response to market conditions during 2023 and to support the future growth and profitability of the company. We've included the fourth quarter 2023 exit rate on the page to illustrate that a significant portion of the year-on-year increase in expense is already in the run rate. Now let's turn to Page 12 and cover credit and wrap up. On credit. We continue to expect the 2024 card net charge-off rate to be below 3.5%, consistent with Investor Day guidance.

值得注意的是，一般業務成長和投資成長都包括已執行的決策，既是為了回應 2023 年的市場狀況，也是為了支持公司未來的成長和獲利能力。我們在頁面上包含了 2023 年第四季的退出率，以說明費用年增率的很大一部分已經包含在運行率中。現在讓我們翻到第 12 頁，介紹並結束。信貸。我們繼續預期 2024 年卡淨沖銷率將低於 3.5%，與投資者日指引一致。

So in closing, we shouldn't leave 2023 without noting what an outstanding year it was, producing record revenue and net income despite some notable significant items. We're very proud of what we accomplished this year and want to thank everyone who made it possible.

因此，最後，我們在離開 2023 年時不應忽視這一年是多麼出色的一年，儘管有一些值得注意的重要項目，但仍創造了創紀錄的收入和淨利潤。我們對今年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，並感謝所有使之成為可能的人。

At the same time, we emphasized throughout 2023 the extent to which we were overearning, as indicated by an ROTCE that is 4% above our through-the-cycle target. As we turn to 2024, it shouldn't be surprising that our outlook has us beginning to march down the path towards normalization of our returns. But despite the expected dissipation of the 2023 tailwinds and the presence of significant economic and geopolitical uncertainties, we remain optimistic about this franchise's ability to produce superior returns through a broad range of environments. And this management team remains laser-focused on executing for shareholders, clients and communities.

同時，我們強調了整個 2023 年我們的超額獲利程度，ROTCE 表明我們的超額收益比我們的整個週期目標高出 4%。當我們轉向 2024 年時，我們的前景讓我們開始沿著回報正常化的道路前進，這不足為奇。儘管 2023 年的有利因素預計會消散，並且存在重大的經濟和地緣政治不確定性，但我們仍然對這支球隊在廣泛的環境中產生卓越回報的能力保持樂觀。這個管理團隊仍然專注於為股東、客戶和社區執行任務。

And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們打開問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) For our first question, it's coming from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）對於我們的第一個問題，它來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納（Matt O'Connor）。

Thanks for all the comments on the net interest income. Any updates on that medium-term outlook that you've put out there?

感謝您對淨利息收入的所有評論。您發布的中期展望有什麼更新嗎？

Yes, Matt, I'm not particularly updating. I think you're referring to that $80 billion number that we put out there. And I wouldn't exactly describe that as an outlook. I think it's more just a number that we put out there to try to quantify a little bit the extent of the overearning. So not particularly necessary to revise the number. But I just would point out, again, as we highlight on the page and as I highlighted in the prepared remarks that when you look at that $94 billion exit rate and full year guidance of $88 billion, that implies, obviously, exiting below 88 and some significant sequential decline. So in that sense, you can see us kind of marching on the path to that $80 billion. Whether we ever get to the $80 billion or not and when is maybe a topic for later in the year or next year.

是的，馬特，我不是特別更新。我想你指的是我們公佈的 800 億美元的數字。我不會將其準確地描述為一種前景。我認為這只是我們給的一個數字，試圖量化超額報酬的程度。所以沒有特別必要修改這個數字。但我想再次指出，正如我們在頁面上強調的那樣，正如我在準備好的評論中所強調的那樣，當你看到940 億美元的退出率和880 億美元的全年指導時，這顯然意味著退出低於88 美元，並且一些顯著的連續下降。所以從這個意義上說，你可以看到我們正在朝著 800 億美元的目標前進。我們是否能達到 800 億美元以及何時達到 800 億美元可能是今年稍後或明年的話題。

Okay. And then just separately, you bought back a couple of billion dollars of stock this quarter. What's your thought process on buybacks, given the strong capital generation but also some uncertainty on regulatory proposals?

好的。然後，您在本季單獨回購了價值數十億美元的股票。鑑於資本產生強勁，但監管建議也存在一些不確定性，您對回購的思考過程是什麼？

Yes. Good question. And I think you've framed it exactly correctly in the sense that we, obviously, have a lot of buyback capacity in general based on our organic capital generation. So the normal capital hierarchy will apply. But for now, we plan to remain on a modest pace of buyback, consistent with that kind of $2 billion net buyback a quarter number that we've talked about and that you've seen us do, in light of probably the need to continue building to have a bit of a buffer, as you said, the uncertainty about the finalization of the rules. And also just as a reminder, the SCB is probably a little bit low right now and has been quite volatile. So that's another factor that we need to keep in mind.

是的。好問題。我認為你的表述完全正確，因為我們顯然基於我們的有機資本生成總體上擁有大量回購能力。因此，正常的資本等級將適用。但就目前而言，我們計劃保持適度的回購速度，與我們已經討論過的、你們已經看到我們所做的 20 億美元淨回購額保持一致，因為可能需要繼續正如你所說，建立一點緩衝，以解決規則最終確定的不確定性。另外提醒一下，SCB 目前可能有點低，而且波動很大。這是我們需要牢記的另一個因素。

Next, we'll go to the line of John McDonald from Autonomous Research.

接下來，我們將討論來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Jeremy, could you give a little more color on what's baked into the loan loss reserve in terms of kind of weighted average assumptions? And how any change in macro outlook played into the dynamics of the reserve builds and releases this quarter?

傑里米（Jeremy），您能否以加權平均假設的形式進一步說明貸款損失準備金中的內容？宏觀前景的變化如何影響本季儲備建立和釋放的動態？

Yes. Actually, John, this quarter, that's all like pretty quiet. So the weighted average unemployment rate and the number is still 5.5%. We didn't have any really big revisions in the macro outlook driving the numbers, and our skew remains as it has been, a little bit skewed to the downside. Just recognizing that we still see risks being elevated, which obviously, you can see that skew and the difference between the weighted average unemployment of 5.5% and what's in our central outlook, which I think is something like 4.6 peak off the current levels.

是的。事實上，約翰，這個季度一切都很安靜。所以加權平均失業率和人數還是5.5%。我們對宏觀前景沒有任何真正重大的修正來推動這些數字，我們的傾斜仍然像以前一樣，有點向下傾斜。只是要認識到我們仍然看到風險上升，顯然，你可以看到5.5% 的加權平均失業率與我們的中心展望中的數據之間的偏差和差異，我認為這與當前水平相比約為4.6 個峰值。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on the NII. Could you give us some sensitivity to that outlook when you flex the amount of Fed cuts? Like what's the impact of a few Fed cuts? And how much does it matter like for the first 2 versus if you're thinking 4, 5, 6? I know it's complicated, but maybe a little bit of color on like how sensitive you are to a couple of cuts might be helpful.

好的。然後是 NII 的後續行動。當您調整聯準會降息幅度時，您能否告訴我們對這種前景的一些敏感度？聯準會幾次降息的影響是什麼？前 2 個與第 4、5、6 個相比，這有多重要？我知道這很複雜，但也許一些關於你對幾次切割有多敏感的顏色可能會有所幫助。

Sure. Yes, happy to do that, John. So I think probably the best way to do this is to look at our EAR numbers. So as you know, we don't update that until the Q. But on an estimated basis, it's going to be a little bit lower. So I think something like $1.9 billion as opposed to $2.1 billion. So just rounding number is about $2 billion in EAR. I think empirically, the number is maybe a little higher than that just because even though we do model lags in the [EAR], we've been seeing the lag might be a little bit bigger. But just crudely, I think you -- as I noted, we do remain asset sensitive. That's one way to quantify it. I would say the empirical number would maybe be a little higher than that. And hopefully, that gives you enough to work with.

當然。是的，很高興這樣做，約翰。因此，我認為最好的方法可能是查看我們的 EAR 數據。如您所知，我們直到 Q 才進行更新。但據估計，它會稍微低一些。所以我認為大約是 19 億美元，而不是 21 億美元。因此，僅四捨五入後，EAR 約為 20 億美元。我認為根據經驗，這個數字可能比這個要高一點，因為即使我們在 [EAR] 中對滯後進行建模，我們也發現滯後可能會更大一些。但粗略地說，我認為正如我所指出的，我們確實仍然對資產敏感。這是量化它的一種方法。我想說，經驗數字可能會比這個數字高一點。希望這能為您提供足夠的幫助。

Next, we'll go to the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities.

接下來，我們請聽聽 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell 的電話。

Maybe just a follow-up in a different way on the NII question. Just in deposits. Can you, Jeremy, discuss your assumptions on the reprice and migration thoughts ?and then layering in if we do get 6 cuts, does that start to change the dynamic around growth in deposits? How are you thinking about all that?

也許只是以不同的方式跟進 NII 問題。就在存款裡。傑里米，您能否討論一下您對重新定價和遷移想法的假設？然後，如果我們確實進行 6 次降息，這是否會開始改變存款成長的動態？你覺得這一切怎麼樣？

Yes. Both good questions. So let's just -- let's do reprice first. So I think all else equal, this more dovish Fed environment and these 6 cuts has the effect of taking a little bit of pressure off the reprice, especially product level reprice. At the same time, we do continue to expect internal migration, particularly out of checking and savings into CDs. And wholesale, a little bit of ongoing migration out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing. And that trajectory, I would expect to continue, even in a lower rate environment. So as a result, if you look at weighted average rate paid, for example, for the consumer deposit franchise, we would actually expect that number to be a little bit higher just even in a world with 6 cuts. And that's actually intuitive when you think about it as people continue migrating into CDs, but maybe a little nonintuitive if you're kind of trying to do beta-type math with like change in rates and change in rate pay that gets a little bit nonintuitive.

是的。兩個問題都很好。所以讓我們先重新定價。因此，我認為在其他條件相同的情況下，聯準會更鴿派的環境和這 6 次降息可以減輕重新定價的壓力，尤其是產品層面的重新定價。同時，我們確實繼續預期內部遷移，特別是支票和儲蓄到 CD 的遷移。整體來說，有一點點正在從無息轉變為有息。我預計即使在利率較低的環境下，這種軌跡也會持續下去。因此，如果你看一下加權平均利率，例如消費者存款特許經營權的加權平均利率，我們實際上預計即使在 6 次削減的情況下，這個數字也會更高一些。當你考慮到人們繼續遷移到 CD 時，這實際上是直觀的，但如果你試圖用費率變化和費率支付變化等進行貝塔型數學計算，這可能有點不直觀。

And then in terms of balances. Yes, you'll note that I said that our outlook is for balances to be very modestly down, which when you consider the QT despite the various speculations about having it slow down later in the year continues. And that loan growth in the system as a whole is expected to be quite muted. It's a pretty modest decline outlook consistent with the lower rate. So I kind of agree with you that this environment is at the margin a little bit more supportive for system-wide deposit balances. And then obviously, we continue to be optimistic about our ability to take share in deposits based on our customer value proposition across all of our different businesses.

然後是餘額方面。是的，您會注意到，我說過我們的前景是餘額將小幅下降，當您考慮 QT 時，儘管有各種猜測稱今年晚些時候餘額將繼續放緩，但這種情況仍然存在。整個系統的貸款成長預計將相當溫和。這是一個相當溫和的下降前景，與較低的利率一致。所以我有點同意你的觀點，即這種環境對於整個系統的存款餘額有更多的支持。顯然，我們繼續對基於我們所有不同業務的客戶價值而主張吸收存款的能力持樂觀態度。

Next, we'll go to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

接下來，我們將前往美國銀行美林銀行 (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 的 Ebrahim Poonawala 線路。

I guess maybe one question. Looking at your statement, and I think Jamie is quoted as saying as he sees the consumer as resilient and the market expecting a soft landing. I would love to hear, I'm not sure if Jamie's on the call, but maybe, Jeremy, I would love to hear your thoughts around, do you believe that the outlook for soft landing has increased as the market pricing incorrectly? Or when you look at your customer base, are you still worried about the lag effects of the rate hikes?

我想也許有個問題。看看你的聲明，我認為傑米的話被引用，因為他認為消費者俱有彈性，市場期待軟著陸。我很想聽聽，我不確定傑米是否在通話，但也許，傑里米，我很想聽聽您的想法，您是否認為由於市場定價不正確，軟著陸的前景有所增加？或者當您審視您的客戶群時，您是否仍擔心升息的滯後效應？

Right. Okay, Ebrahim. So I think a lot of those things aren't actually mutually exclusive. So statement one, I think it's uncontroversial that the economic outlook has evolved to include a significantly higher probability of a soft landing. That's, I think, the consensus at this point. So whether you believe it or not is a separate issue, but I think that is the consensus. In terms of consumer resilience, I made some comments about this on the press call. The way we see it, the consumers find all of the relevant metrics are now effectively normalized. And the question really in light of the fact that cash buffers are now also normal, but that, that means that consumers have been spending more than they're taking in is how that spending behavior adjusts as we go into the new year, in a world where cash buffers are less comfortable than they were.

正確的。好的，易卜拉欣。所以我認為很多事情其實並不是互相排斥的。因此，聲明一，我認為經濟前景已經演變為包括顯著更高的軟著陸可能性，這是毫無爭議的。我認為這是目前的共識。所以不管你信不信是一個單獨的問題，但我認為這是共識。關於消費者的韌性，我在記者會上對此發表了一些評論。在我們看來，消費者發現所有相關指標現在都已有效標準化。事實上，考慮到現金緩衝現在也很正常，但這意味著消費者的支出超過了他們的收入，問題是隨著我們進入新的一年，支出行為如何調整現金緩衝不再像以前那樣舒適的世界。

So one can speculate about different trajectories that, that could take, but I do think it's important to take a step back and remind ourselves that consistent with that soft landing view, just in the central case modeling, obviously, we always worry about the tail scenarios is a very strong labor market. And a very strong labor market means, all else equal, strong consumer credit. So that's how we see the world.

因此，人們可以推測可能採取的不同軌跡，但我確實認為重要的是退後一步並提醒自己，與軟著陸觀點一致，就在中心案例建模中，顯然，我們總是擔心尾巴情景是一個非常強勁的勞動力市場。在其他條件相同的情況下，非常強勁的勞動力市場意味著強勁的消費信貸。這就是我們看待世界的方式。

And maybe just taking that a step further. There has been concern around whether we see some of the CRE being filtered into multifamily apartments. You all have a pretty large multifamily exposure, high quality. But just give us a sense of, one, are you seeing any bleed through of what we've seen in office in other areas of commercial real estate or any particular parts of C&I lending?

也許只是更進一步。人們一直擔心我們是否會看到一些商業房地產被過濾到多戶公寓。你們都擁有相當大的多戶住宅，品質很高。但請讓我們了解一下，第一，您是否看到我們在商業房地產其他領域或工商業貸款的任何特定部分中看到的任何滲透？

Yes. So good question on the multifamily. And the short answer is that for us, it's pretty uncontroversially no. No bleed through. And the reason is that while there is we do -- we are aware of some of the pressure on multifamily, that's in kind of different markets from the ones that we are actually big in. So it's higher-end stuff in much less supply-constrained markets that is under more pressure. And as you know, our multifamily portfolio is much more affordable supply-constrained markets. And so the performance there remains really very robust.

是的。關於多戶家庭的好問題。簡而言之，對我們來說，毫無爭議的是「不」。沒有流血。原因是，雖然我們確實這樣做——我們意識到多戶家庭面臨的一些壓力，但這與我們實際涉足的市場不同。所以這是供應量少得多的高端產品——受限制的市場面臨更大的壓力。如您所知，我們的多戶型投資組合是更實惠的供應受限市場。因此，那裡的表現仍然非常強勁。

Next, we'll go to the line of Erika Najarian from UBS.

接下來，我們將邀請瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is a follow-up on that with regarding the buyback. You printed 15% CET1 in the quarter. Your -- on a net basis, net to RWA growth, your net income produces 51 basis points every quarter. Again, that's net of RWA growth. I'm wondering what guidepost you're looking for, Jeremy, in terms of that buyback increasing from that $2 billion a quarter. Do we need to wait for B3 finalization, which seems like it could be quite delayed? Or will having clarity in the June DFAST results, you mentioned the SCB, sort of be enough that you could reconsider this pace over the medium term?

我的第一個問題是關於回購的後續問題。您在本季度列印了 15% CET1。您的－以淨額計算，RWA 淨成長，您的淨利潤每季產生 51 個基點。同樣，這還是 RWA 成長的淨值。傑里米，我想知道您在尋找什麼指導方針，以提高每季 20 億美元的回購規模。我們是否需要等待 B3 的最終確定，這看起來可能會相當延遲？或者，您提到的 SCB，6 月 DFAST 結果的清晰度是否足以讓您在中期內重新考慮這一步伐？

Yes, Erika, it's a good question, and I understand what you're asking. Why you're asking it. I think the answer is going to be a little bit unsatisfying, which is that this is clastic decision-making under uncertainty. And it's kind of a probabilistic cloud in a variety of different factors. But all the ingredients that you've listed are the right ingredients, right? Very strong organic capital generation, uncertainty about the finalization of the rule, uncertainty about the SCB requirements.

是的，艾莉卡，這​​是一個很好的問題，我明白你在問什麼。你為什麼問這個。我認為答案會有點令人不滿意，那就是這是在不確定性下做出的倉促決策。這是各種不同因素的機率雲。但你列出的所有成分都是正確的成分，對嗎？有機資本生成非常強勁，規則最終確定的不確定性，SCB 要求的不確定性。

And obviously, our normal capital hierarchy, which is that buybacks are always at the bottom of the hierarchy after we're done using the capital for our other priorities. So I think what I said previously stands, which is that we're sticking with a modest pace for now. But obviously, we have a lot of flexibility to adjust that whenever we want under the current regime, and we may well do that.

顯然，我們正常的資本層次結構，即在我們將資本用於其他優先事項之後，回購始終位於層級結構的底部。所以我認為我之前所說的仍然有效，那就是我們目前堅持適度的步伐。但顯然，在現行製度下，我們有很大的彈性可以隨時調整，而且我們很可能會這樣做。

And just as a follow-up. The $90 billion in expenses for 2024, does that contemplate a significant increase or could the comeback of Investment Banking that everybody seems to be expecting for '24?

並且只是作為後續行動。 2024 年的支出為 900 億美元，這是否意味著大幅增加，或者每個人似乎都在期待 24 世紀投資銀行業的捲土重來？

A little bit of that is in there, yes. So you would see that we often talk about the volume and revenue-related category. And I think in my prepared remarks, you will have noted that I talked about $1 billion increase in that category year-on-year as a result of an improved NIR outlook. So the hope and expectation of a continued rebound in the Investment Banking wallet and our share of that is part of that.

是的，其中有一點點。所以你會看到我們經常談論與數量和收入相關的類別。我想，在我準備好的發言中，您可能已經註意到，由於 NIR 前景的改善，該類別的收入同比增長了 10 億美元。因此，對投資銀行錢包持續反彈的希望和預期以及我們在其中所佔的份額就是其中的一部分。

Next, we'll go to the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們將邀請富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

So your guidance to $90 billion of expenses, that's up $7 billion year-over-year. It seems like quite a big increase. And if you could just give some color on that, I know we've been through this before 2 years ago, with the big increase in expenses and without a lot of visibility. So if you could just upfront give us visibility, how much of that is due to incentive pay? How much of that due to tech? How much of that due to AI? And what are the expected returns to get to that $7 billion pickup?

因此，您對 900 億美元支出的指導，比去年同期增加了 70 億美元。看來增幅還蠻大的。如果你能對此進行一些說明的話，我知道我們在兩年前就已經經歷過這種情況，費用大幅增加，但知名度卻很低。因此，如果您可以預先讓我們了解，其中有多少是由於激勵工資？其中有多少是科技造成的？其中有多少是人工智慧帶來的？ 70 億美元的提速預期回報是多少？

Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. And yes, and of course, you will, as I noted, be hearing more from us at Investor Day and between now and Investor Day. But I will take a little bit of extra time here to answer your question because you're right. It's important to give you the transparency. And I'm going to follow the structure that we use on the page and go through each line of business. So starting with CCB, it's the biggest dollar driver overall. It's an 8% increase year-on-year, which is about the same as we had last year.

是的，麥克，謝謝你的提問。是的，當然，正如我所指出的，您會在投資者日以及從現在到投資者日期間從我們那裡聽到更多。但我會在這裡花一點額外的時間來回答你的問題，因為你是對的。為您提供透明度很重要。我將遵循我們在頁面上使用的結構並遍歷每個業務線。因此，從建行開始，它是整體上最大的美元驅動因素。年增8%，與去年基本持平。

One key driver is the branch strategy and the associated staff for that. In 2023, we built 166 new branches, and we're planning about a similar number this year. Marketing is also a driver. We're seeing great opportunities, great demand and engagement in our card products. And so that shows up in marketing. And as you all know, our wealth strategy and CCB remains a big focus and priority. I think it's worth noting here, right, that as we've talked about and as you know, Mike, some of our investments are designed to produce short-term payoffs and some of them are much longer term, and some of them are just table stakes. But we actually see quite a bit of evidence of current payoffs in our current results in the CCB investment.

一個關鍵驅動因素是分支機構策略和相關員工。 2023 年，我們新建了 166 家分支機構，今年我們計劃增加類似數量。行銷也是一個驅動力。我們看到了我們的卡產品的巨大機會、巨大需求和參與。這也體現在行銷中。眾所周知，我們的財富策略和建設銀行仍然是一個重點和優先事項。我認為這裡值得注意的是，正如我們所討論的，正如你所知，麥克，我們的一些投資旨在產生短期回報，其中一些是長期回報，而其中一些只是賭注。但我們實際上在建行投資的當前表現中看到了相當多的當前回報的證據。

So for example in 2023, we had 2 million net new checking accounts. We had an 8% growth in active card accounts. And over the last 3 years, we've increased deposit market share by 180 basis points. So as we've often said about the company as a whole, we're very happy to be producing very good current returns and growth while investing for the future. In AWM, continued client adviser hiring is a key driver as well as making sure that both the advisers and all of their new clients have the support that they need.

例如，到 2023 年，我們淨新增了 200 萬個支票帳戶。我們的活躍卡帳戶成長了 8%。在過去 3 年裡，我們的存款市佔率增加了 180 個基點。因此，正如我們經常談到的整個公司一樣，我們很高興能夠在投資未來的同時產生非常好的當前回報和成長。在 AWM 中，持續聘用客戶顧問是關鍵驅動因素，同時也確保顧問及其所有新客戶都能獲得所需的支援。

And a little bit to the prior question in AWM. We also have a little bit of volume and revenue-related driver tied to an improved revenue outlook. The commercial bank is an interesting story in the sense that about half of it is the exit rate impact of ads that we did in the middle of the year based on market disruption and all the kind of new clients and new loans that we saw and the need to support that across the entire ecosystem as well as the fact that, that created an opportunity in the middle of the year to accelerate our long-standing and pre-existing innovation economy strategy. So we took some opportunities to onboard some key teams in different parts of the franchise.

還有一點關於 AWM 中之前的問題。我們還有一些與收入前景改善相關的銷售和收入相關驅動因素。商業銀行是一個有趣的故事，因為大約一半是我們在年中基於市場擾亂以及我們看到的所有類型的新客戶和新貸款以及我們在年中所做的廣告對退出率的影響。需要在整個生態系統中支持這一點，而且這在年中創造了一個加速我們長期存在的創新經濟策略的機會。因此，我們抓住了一些機會，在特許經營的不同部分招募了一些關鍵團隊。

And then as you look into 2024, it's really pretty consistent theme to the ones that we had before, including hiring bankers, both domestically and internationally. The CIB story is a little bit different. The percentage growth there is lower, which recognizes I think both our very, very strong share position as a starting point and also the fact that we've been investing quite aggressively for some time in the payments business, which has produced meaningful payoffs already there in terms of significant share gains.

然後，當你展望 2024 年時，你會發現這與我們之前的主題非常一致，包括招募國內和國際銀行家。 CIB 的故事有點不同。那裡的百分比成長率較低，這不僅認識到我們非常非常強大的股票地位作為起點，也認識到我們一段時間以來一直在支付業務上進行相當積極的投資，該業務已經在那裡產生了有意義的回報就顯著的股票收益而言。

So as a result, the biggest driver in the CIB is really generic inflation, including labor as well as again, to the prior question, volume and revenue-related increases tied to the improved NIR outlook. And I do want to say for the avoidance of doubt that despite all of this, our core strategy of looking very granularly at all the areas of strength and weakness and making sure that we're upgrading where appropriate, to have absolutely best talent in the CIB remains fully in effect.

因此，CIB 的最大驅動力實際上是一般通膨，包括勞動力，以及先前的問題，與 NIR 前景改善相關的數量和收入相關增長。為了避免疑慮，我確實想說，儘管如此，我們的核心策略是非常細緻地審視所有優勢和劣勢領域，並確保我們在適當的情況下進行升級，以在該領域擁有絕對最優秀的人才。CIB仍然完全有效。

Finally, you'll note that I haven't actually talked about technology in any of the businesses. And that's actually because even though all of the businesses in various ways are investing in technology and spending money on it, the drivers are actually very consistent across the entire firm even though it's really bottoms-up driven. And those drivers are consistent with what they've been: new products, features and customer platforms as well as modernization. So that's happening throughout the company, both at the app level and otherwise.

最後，您會注意到我實際上並沒有談論任何業務中的技術。這實際上是因為，儘管所有企業都以各種方式投資技術並在技術上花錢，但整個公司的驅動因素實際上是非常一致的，儘管它實際上是自下而上驅動的。這些驅動因素與以往一致：新產品、功能、客戶平台以及現代化。因此，整個公司都在發生這種情況，無論是在應用程式層級還是其他方面。

And I will say actually in closing, talking about technology, which I think is interesting, that to the point about the driver being growth writ large, one of the things that we see is higher volume-related technology expense throughout the company. So thanks for the question, Mike. It was a good opportunity to give you guys a bit more color here.

實際上，我最後要說的是，談論技術，我認為這很有趣，就成長驅動力而言，我們看到的一件事是整個公司與數量相關的技術費用更高。謝謝你的提問，麥克。這是一個很好的機會，可以讓大家在這裡多一點色彩。

Okay. I have sort follow-up. I'm still here.

好的。我有跟進。我還在這兒。

Sure.

當然。

Yes, can you just talk about the impact of AI on your technology approach? And I know I asked you this before and you said you're spending it. You're being careful. You want to see a return on your dollars. But how much difference can this make? How big is your tech budget last year? How much should it be this year? How much should AI make a difference? Just a little bit more meat on the tech [point].

是的，您能談談人工智慧對您的技術方法的影響嗎？我知道我之前問過你這個問題，你說你正在花掉它。你可要小心了。您希望看到您的美元得到回報。但這能帶來多大的不同呢？去年您的技術預算有多少？今年應該是多少？人工智慧應該發揮多大作用？只是在技術方面多了一點內容[點]。

Yes, sure. So we addressed the AI point. And I think maybe I won't go into a lot of quantitative detail on this stuff, and I'll save that for Investor Day, if you don't mind. But I will address the AI point. So as you may be aware, we actually have 3 [sites] now running the AI strategy for the company as a member of the operating committee, which I think is an indication of the priority that we place on this and in partnership with Lori and all of the technology organization. So I think that -- I think of this as being a little bit barbelled where, on the one hand, we're very excited about this.

是的，當然。所以我們解決了人工智慧問題。我想也許我不會對這些東西進行大量的定量細節，如果你不介意的話，我會把它留到投資者日。但我會解決人工智慧問題。正如您可能知道的那樣，我們現在實際上有 3 個[站點]作為營運委員會的成員正在為公司運行人工智慧策略，我認為這表明了我們對此的優先考慮以及與 Lori 和所有的技術組織。所以我認為——我認為這有點像槓鈴，一方面，我們對此感到非常興奮。

There's clearly some very significant opportunities, not for nothing, starting with technology developers themselves, in terms of the opportunity for significantly increased productivity there. At the same time, we're JPMorgan Chase. We're not going to be chasing shiny objects here in AI. We want to do this in an extremely disciplined way. It's very commercial and very linked to tangible outcomes. And so the current focus is on making sure we have a contained, well-chosen list of high-impact use cases and that we're throwing resources at those in the right way, that's extremely pragmatic and disciplined and we're holding ourselves accountable for actual results.

顯然，從技術開發人員本身開始，就顯著提高生產力的機會而言，存在一些非常重要的機會，但並非沒有。同時，我們是摩根大通。我們不會在人工智慧中追逐閃亮的物體。我們希望以極其嚴格的方式做到這一點。它非常商業化，並且與實際成果密切相關。因此，目前的重點是確保我們有一個包含的、精心挑選的高影響力用例列表，並且我們以正確的方式向這些用例投入資源，這是非常務實和有紀律的，我們對自己負責以獲得實際結果。

Next, we'll go to the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將邀請加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Gerard Cassidy。

Jeremy, coming back to your outlook and forecast for net interest income for the upcoming year with the 6 Fed fund rate cuts that you guys are assuming. Can you give us a little insight why you're assuming 6 cuts? Is it your customers are telling you that their businesses are weaker? Or is it your just economic outlook, the forward curve? Can you give us something behind why you're assuming so many rate cuts?

傑里米，回到您對來年淨利息收入的展望和預測，以及您假設的 6 次聯邦基金利率下調。您能否告訴我們為什麼您假設 6 次削減？您的客戶是否告訴您他們的業務較弱？還是這只是你的經濟前景、遠期曲線？您能否告訴我們為什麼您會假設如此多次降息？

Yes, Gerard. I wish the answer were more interesting, but it's just our practice. We just always use the forward curve for our outlook, and that's what's in there.

是的，傑拉德。我希望答案更有趣，但這只是我們的做法。我們總是使用遠期曲線來預測我們的前景，而這就是其中的內容。

Okay. Very good. And then as a follow-up. Obviously, you pointed out also in the outlook, you're going to have some deposit attrition. You had some, of course, in 2023. Can you guys give us some insights on the impact QT is having on the deposit base for your organization? And second, are you surprised that it hasn't -- QT hasn't been more disruptive to the liquidity in the markets?

好的。非常好。然後作為後續。顯然，您在展望中也指出，您將會出現一些存款流失。當然，在 2023 年，你們有一些。你們能給我們一些關於 QT 對你們組織存款基礎的影響的見解嗎？其次，您是否對 QT 沒有對市場流動性造成更大的破壞感到驚訝？

Yes. Good question, Gerard. I mean I think you've heard Jamie talk about this a lot. QT is, obviously, a big focus and one of the complicating elements that we have in the current environment. I think that the math is the math in the sense that QT, all else equal, is withdrawing from system-wide deposits. In the last 6 months of this year, that's been offset hopefully by a reduction in the size of RRP. And so that's been supportive of system-wide deposits.

是的。好問題，傑拉德。我的意思是，我想你已經聽過傑米談論過很多次了。顯然，QT 是我們當前環境中的一個重點，也是我們面臨的複雜因素之一。我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，QT 正在從系統範圍的存款中提取，這個意義上的數學就是數學。今年最後 6 個月，建議零售價規模的減少可望抵消這一影響。這對全系統存款起到了支持作用。

As we go into 2024, RRP is at lower levels, and so that may be a little bit less of a tailwind. But it's also the case, as you know, that there's -- the market's expectation is that QT is going to start slowing down at some point this year. So -- and we still have reasonable levels of reserves and some cushion from RRP. So that's part of the reason that our outlook is for deposits to be modestly down, with the shrinkage in system-wide deposits maybe partially offset by our belief that we can take some share. But also, I think the second half of this year is going to be interesting to watch in terms of what the Fed does.

當我們進入 2024 年時，建議零售價處於較低水平，因此這可能不太有利。但正如你所知，情況也是如此——市場預期 QT 將在今年某個時候開始放緩。因此，我們仍然有合理的儲備水平和建議零售價的一些緩衝。因此，這就是我們的前景是存款小幅下降的部分原因，而全系統存款的減少可能會被我們相信我們可以佔據一些份額所部分抵消。而且，我認為今年下半年聯準會的行動將會很有趣。

Next, we'll go to the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將轉到摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia 線。

There's been a lot of talk about capital markets rebound. You noted you're starting the year with a healthy pipeline. Could you give us some more color on what you're seeing there? And how the rate in -- how the change in the rate environment is changing the conversations that you're having across M&A, ECM and DCM?

關於資本市場反彈的討論很多。您指出，今年開始您的通路狀況良好。您能給我們更多關於您在那裡看到的情況的資訊嗎？利率環境的變化如何改變您在併購、ECM 和 DCM 方面的對話？

Yes, sure. So as you know, all else equal, this more dovish rate environment is, of course, supportive for capital markets. So if you go into the details a little bit, if you start with ECM, that helps higher -- and the recent rally in the equity markets helps. I think there have been some modest challenges with the 2023 IPO vintage in terms of post-launch performance or whatever. So that's a little bit of a headwind at the margin in terms of converting the pipeline, but I'm not too concerned about that in general. So I would expect to see rebound there.

是的，當然。如你所知，在其他條件相同的情況下，這種更鴿派的利率環境當然有利於資本市場。因此，如果你稍微了解一下細節，如果你從 ECM 開始，這有助於走高，而最近股市的反彈也會有所幫助。我認為 2023 年 IPO 在發行後表現或其他方面存在一些適度的挑戰。因此，就轉換管道而言，這在邊際上有點不利，但總的來說，我不太擔心這一點。所以我預計那裡會出現反彈。

In DCM, again all else equal, lower rates are clearly supportive. One of the nuances there is the distinction between the absolute level of rates and the rate of change. So sometimes you see corporates seeing and expecting lower rates and, therefore, waiting to refinance in the hope of even lower rates. So that can go both ways.

對於 DCM，同樣在其他條件相同的情況下，較低的利率顯然是有利的。其中的細微差別之一是絕對利率水準和變化率之間的差異。因此，有時您會看到企業看到並期望更低的利率，因此等待再融資，希望利率更低。所以這是雙向的。

And then M&A, it's a slightly different dynamic. I think there's a couple of nuances there. One, as you obviously know, announced volume was lower this year. So that will be a headwind in reported revenues in 2024, all else equal. And of course, we are in an environment of M&A regulatory headwinds, as has been heavily discussed. But having said that, I think we're seeing a bit of pickup in deal flow, and I would expect the environment to be a bit more supportive.

然後是併購，情況略有不同。我認為其中存在一些細微差別。眾所周知，今年公佈的數量較低。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這將是 2024 年報告收入的阻力。當然，正如人們廣泛討論的那樣，我們正處於併購監管不利的環境中。但話雖如此，我認為我們看到交易量有所回升，我預計環境會更加支持。

Great. And on the flip side in C&I. You spoke about lower revolver utilization, more muted demand. What would it take for that to rebound? Do you think it accelerates from here if rates come down? Or is there room for this to slow even further? The capital markets open up even more?

偉大的。另一方面是 C&I。您談到了左輪手槍利用率較低、需求更加疲軟。需要什麼才能反彈？您認為如果利率下降，它會從現在開始加速嗎？或者說還有進一步放緩的空間嗎？資本市場進一步開放？

Yes, it's a good question. I mean I think as you say, it's a little bit of a -- I mean, I wouldn't necessarily say that like lack of debt market access in the last year, that was more of an earlier effect in terms of having that drive revolver utilization.

是的，這是一個好問題。我的意思是，我認為正如你所說，這有點——我的意思是，我不一定會說，就像去年缺乏債務市場准入一樣，這更多的是早期的影響，因為有這種驅動力左輪手槍的利用。

I think the main driver there is just a little bit of residual anxiety in the C-suite, which increases as the companies get smaller in size. So there's really going to be a function of how 2024 plays out. The softer the landing is, the more supported the utilization should be, I would think. If things turn out a little bit worse, I think management teams are going to be incrementally more cautious about CapEx and so on, and so you might see utilization even lower.

我認為主要的驅動因素是高階主管中存在一點殘餘焦慮，這種焦慮隨著公司規模的縮小而增加。因此，2024 年的結果確實會產生影響。我認為，著陸越軟，利用率就應該得到越多的支持。如果情況變得更糟，我認為管理團隊將逐漸對資本支出等更加謹慎，因此您可能會看到使用率更低。

Next, we'll go to the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將前往 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr 線路。

So I want to get your perspective on private credit overall. The industry saw a lot of growth, but it's only so big relative to the banking market. I think there's been a lot of share shift in direct lending and middle market lending. But now you're starting to see more in asset-backed finance, and you're seeing them raise a lot of money in infrastructure and energy. So my question to you is how big of a trend is this? How much do you think of it as cyclical versus secular? And most importantly, how does JPMorgan adapt and participate?

所以我想了解一下您對私人信貸的整體看法。該行業出現了很大的成長，但相對於銀行市場而言，成長幅度有限。我認為直接貸款和中間市場貸款的份額發生了很大的變化。但現在你開始看到更多的資產支持金融，你看到他們在基礎設施和能源領域籌集了大量資金。所以我想問你的是，這個趨勢有多大？您認為它是週期性的還是長期的？最重要的是，摩根大通如何適應和參與？

Yes. Thanks, Glenn. So I think the last part of your question, as you say, is the most important part, which is this as an important factor in the competitive dynamic and what is one of the key things that we offer as a company.

是的。謝謝，格倫。所以我認為你問題的最後一部分，正如你所說，是最重要的部分，這是競爭動態的一個重要因素，也是我們作為一家公司提供的關鍵內容之一。

So it is a meaningful shift in the environment. It's something that we've been watching for some time. We have made some enhancements and some new initiatives to ensure that we can compete effectively, both in our traditional syndicated lending businesses but also go head-to-head with the private credit providers and these types of unitranche structures, if and when that's what the client actually wants. It tends to be a trade-off between the best possible pricing versus speed and uncertainty of execution. And we can provide both of our sort of exceptionally strong long-time DCM franchise.

因此，這是一個有意義的環境轉變。這是我們已經觀察了一段時間的事情。我們已經做出了一些改進和一些新舉措，以確保我們能夠在傳統的銀團貸款業務中有效競爭，而且還可以與私人信貸提供商和這些類型的單一貸款結構進行正面交鋒，如果這就是我們想要的。客戶確實想要。它往往是最佳定價與執行速度和不確定性之間的權衡。我們可以提供這兩種異常強大的長期 DCM 特許經營權。

So that's been a priority, and we're actually already starting to see some results from that across both the commercial bank and the CIB with certain client segments. And in the bigger picture, of course, in the context of the Basel III end game, people talk a lot about the risk of certain lending activity getting pushed out of the regulated perimeter.

所以這是一個優先事項，實際上我們已經開始看到商業銀行和 CIB 的某些客戶群的一些結果。當然，從更大的角度來看，在巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲的背景下，人們談論了很多關於某些貸款活動被排除在監管範圍之外的風險。

So more to be clear, right, these are important clients of ours, too. We compete with them. They're also clients. And in the end, our point here is just people and regulators, in particular, should just be aware of the likely consequences of what's happening here and make sure that the results are intentional and that we're looking around the corner a little bit.

因此，更明確的是，這些也是我們的重要客戶。我們與他們競爭。他們也是客戶。最後，我們的觀點是，人們和監管機構尤其應該意識到這裡發生的事情可能產生的後果，並確保結果是有意為之的，我們正在四處尋找。

Anything specific on asset-backed? It's an important part of your business, too. Do you see it following the same path as direct lending has?

關於資產支持有什麼具體內容嗎？這也是您業務的重要組成部分。您認為它遵循與直接貸款相同的路徑嗎？

It's interesting. I haven't heard much about that, Glenn. So we're going to look into it for you. But to be honest, the fact that I haven't heard much makes me think that it's maybe not such a big driver right now.

這真有趣。我沒聽過太多這件事，格倫。所以我們將為您調查一下。但說實話，我沒有聽到太多消息，這讓我覺得它現在可能不是一個很大的驅動力。

And for our final question, we'll go to the line of Charles Peabody from Portales Partners.

最後一個問題，我們將請教來自 Portales Partners 的 Charles Peabody。

I have a question about the role that First Republic plays in your NII forecast. I'm assuming because you'll have a full year and '24 First Republic that their contribution of NII will be up, let's say, from $3.7 billion this year to $5 billion to $6 billion next year. But given that you're forecasting 6 rate cuts, is that a detractor to your assumptions of NII from First Republic? Or I mean, you have that FDIC note and then you also have a significant amount of adjusted rate mortgages that I assume, pricing upwards. So if you're talking about rate cuts, that would hurt your NII forecast from First Republic, I'm guessing. But if rates stay higher for longer, wouldn't First Republic probably be a much bigger contributor? So talk about the sensitivities of First Republic there.

我對第一共和國在您的 NII 預測中扮演的角色有疑問。我假設，因為你將度過一整年和“24 第一共和國”，他們對 NII 的貢獻將從今年的 37 億美元增加到明年的 50 億美元至 60 億美元。但考慮到您預測將有 6 次降息，這是否會損害您對第一共和國的 NII 假設？或者我的意思是，你有聯邦存款保險公司的票據，然後你還有大量調整後的利率抵押貸款，我假設價格上漲。因此，如果您談論降息，我猜這會損害您對第一共和國的 NII 預測。但如果利率在較長時間內保持較高水平，第一共和國是否可能會做出更大的貢獻？所以談談第一共和國的敏感性吧。

Yes. Thanks, Charlie. So one thing that we said when we kind of gave First Republic guidance at Investor Day earlier this year is that while we understood the need to track that, and we've been [putting out] out First Republic in our reported results in order to improve period-on-period comparability, we kind of want to stay out of the business of guiding on First Republic. And so we really focused on having our guidance be firm-wide, including First Republic now that everything is embedded in the franchise.

是的。謝謝，查理。因此，當我們在今年早些時候的投資者日向第一共和國提供指導時，我們說過的一件事是，雖然我們理解跟踪這一點的必要性，但我們一直在報告的結果中[發布]第一共和國的訊息，以便為了提高同期可比性，我們希望不介入《第一共和國》的指導業務。因此，我們真正專注於在整個公司範圍內提供指導，包括《第一共和國》，因為一切都嵌入了特許經營權中。

Having said that, let me just react to a couple of things that you said. So again, I don't want to get into like micro validation one way or the other of some of your back-of-the-envelope math. But we did have some accelerated pull-to-par on some of the accretion of some of the loans that we purchased this year. So I think the annualization that you're doing is maybe a bit high for the 2024 number. And then from a sensitivities perspective, I actually think I can simplify the math for you a little bit and just kind of direct you to the EAR, from my response to the prior question, because that EAR fully includes all of the First Republic assets and liabilities with all of the various dynamics. And so I think that's kind of like an easier way to think about it for the company.

話雖如此，讓我對你所說的幾件事做出反應。再說一次，我不想以一種或另一種方式對你的一些粗略數學進行微觀驗證。但我們今年購買的一些貸款的成長確實加速達到了標準水準。所以我認為你所做的年化對於 2024 年的數字來說可能有點高。然後從敏感性的角度來看，我實際上認為我可以為您簡化數學，並根據我對前一個問題的回答將您引導至 EAR，因為該 EAR 完全包含第一共和國的所有資產和負債具有各種動態。所以我認為這對公司來說是一種更簡單的思考方式。

Just to make sure I understood what you're saying. So you have NII ex markets went from 94% to $88%. Within that, would the contribution from First Republic be down as well or up?

只是為了確保我明白你在說什麼。所以你的 NII 外匯市場從 94% 上升到 88%。其中，第一共和國的貢獻會減少還是增加？

I kind of head match the day we did it. So yes, I mean I can probably answer that question if I think about it for a second, but it sort of violates my prior statement that I really don't want to get into the business of guiding on First Republic. If I do the big picture, right, so big picture. 2023, we had 8 months of First Republic NII. 2024, we're going to have 12. So all else equal, there's calendarization in there.

我們這樣做的那天我有點頭暈。所以，是的，我的意思是，如果我想一想，我可能可以回答這個問題，但這有點違反了我之前的聲明，即我真的不想參與第一共和國的指導業務。如果我做大局，對吧，那麼大局。 2023 年，我們有 8 個月的第一共和國 NII。 2024 年，我們將有 12 個。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，其中有日曆化。

What's also true is that in 2023 as a result of the impact of the NII of the pull-to-par of certain relatively short-dated assets that we fair valued at a meaningful discount as part of the transaction, that sort of -- that pull-to-par happens quite quickly and therefore, probably juiced the 2023 number a little bit. So therefore, straight annualization is probably not the right way to think about it. Then you just get into the questions about the FTP and the funding and whatever, and then it's just like too complicated. So I'd rather not go there.

同樣真實的是，到 2023 年，由於某些相對短期資產的拉至標準值的影響，我們在交易中以有意義的折扣對這些資產進行公允價值評估，這種情況達到標準的速度發生得相當快，因此，可能會對2023 年的數字產生一點影響。因此，直接年化可能不是考慮這個問題的正確方法。然後你就會遇到有關 FTP 和資金等問題，然後事情就變得太複雜了。所以我寧願不去那裡。

And we do have no further questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

Okay. Thanks very much, everyone.

好的。非常感謝大家。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。此時您可以斷開連接，享受剩下的一天。