摩根大通 (JPM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早安，女士們先生們。

Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加摩根大通 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded.

此通話正在錄音。

Your line will be muted for the duration of the call.

在通話期間，您的線路將被靜音。

We will now go live to the presentation.

我們現在將直播演示。

The presentation is available on JP Morgan Chase's website.

該簡報可在摩根大通的網站上查看。

Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements.

請參閱後面有關前瞻性陳述的免責聲明。

Please stand by.

請稍候。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum.

現在，我想將電話轉給摩根大通董事長兼執行長傑米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）和財務長傑里米·巴納姆（Jeremy Barnum）。

Mr Barnum, please go ahead.

巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早安。

Starting on Page 1.

從第 1 頁開始。

The firm reported net income of $14 billion, EPS of $4.81 on revenue of $43.7 billion with an ROTCE of 21%.

該公司報告淨利潤為 140 億美元，每股收益為 4.81 美元，收入為 437 億美元，ROTCE 為 21%。

On page 2, we have more on our fourth quarter results.

在第 2 頁上，我們詳細介紹了第四季的業績。

The firm reported revenue of $43.7 billion, up $3.8 billion or 10% year-on-year.

該公司報告營收為 437 億美元，年增 38 億美元，即 10%。

NII ex markets was down $548 million or 2% driven by the impact of lower rates and the associated deposit margin compression as well as lower deposit balances in CCB, largely offset by the impact of securities reinvestment, higher revolving balances in card and higher wholesale deposit balances.

由於利率下降和相關存款保證金壓縮以及建行存款餘額減少，NII 前市場下降了 5.48 億美元，即 2%，這在很大程度上被證券再投資、信用卡循環餘額增加和批發存款增加的影響所抵消餘額。

NII ex markets was up $3.1 billion or 30%.

NII 離岸市場上漲 31 億美元，成長 30%。

Excluding the prior year's net investment securities losses, it was up 21% largely on higher asset management fees and investment banking fees.

不計上一年的淨投資證券損失，該數字增長了21%，主要是由於資產管理費和投資銀行費的上漲。

And markets revenue was up $1.2 billion or 21%.

市場收入成長了 12 億美元，即 21%。

Expenses of $22.8 billion were down $1.7 billion or 7% year-on-year.

支出為 228 億美元，年減 17 億美元，即 7%。

Excluding the prior year's FDIC special assessment, expenses were up $1.2 billion or 5% predominantly driven by compensation as well as higher brokerage and distribution fees.

不包括上一年的 FDIC 特別評估，費用增加了 12 億美元或 5%，主要是由於薪酬以及更高的經紀和分銷費用。

And credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.4 billion and a net reserve of $267 million.

信貸成本為 26 億美元，反映淨沖銷 24 億美元和淨準備金 2.67 億美元。

On page 3, you can see the reported results for the full year.

在第 3 頁上，您可以查看全年的報告結果。

I'll remind you that there were a number of significant items in 2024.

我要提醒您的是，2024 年有很多重要的事情。

Excluding those items, the firm reported net income of $54 billion, EPS of $18.22, revenue of $173 billion, and we delivered an ROTCE of 20%.

排除這些項目，該公司淨利潤為 540 億美元，每股收益為 18.22 美元，收入為 1,730 億美元，ROTCE 為 20%。

Touching on a couple of highlights for the year.

談到今年的幾個亮點。

In CCB, we had a record number of first-time investors and acquired nearly 10 million new card accounts.

建行首次投資人數量創歷史新高，新增卡片帳戶近千萬戶。

In CIB, we had record revenue in markets, payments and securities services.

在 CIB，我們在市場、支付和證券服務方面的收入創歷史新高。

And in AWM, we had record long-term net inflows of $234 billion, positive across all channels, regions and asset classes.

在 AWM 方面，我們的長期淨流入達到創紀錄的 2,340 億美元，所有通路、地區和資產類別均為正值。

On to balance sheet and capital on page 4.

請參閱第 4 頁的資產負債表和資本。

We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15.7%, up 40 basis points versus the prior quarter as net income and lower RWA were largely offset by both OCI losses and capital distributions, which included $4 billion of net common share repurchases this quarter.

本季末，我們的CET1 比率為15.7%，比上一季上升40 個基點，因為淨利潤和較低的RWA 在很大程度上被OCI 損失和資本分配所抵消，其中包括本季40 億美元的淨普通股回購。

The $24 billion decrease in RWA reflects a seasonal decline in markets activity and lower wholesale lending, which was predominantly offset by a seasonal increase in card.

RWA 減少 240 億美元反映了市場活動的季節性下降和批發貸款的減少，這主要被信用卡的季節性增加所抵消。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting with CCB on page 5.

現在讓我們來看看我們的業務，從第 5 頁的 CCB 開始。

CCB reported net income of $4.5 billion on revenue of $18.4 billion, which was up 1% year-on-year.

建行報告淨利為45億美元，營收為184億美元，年增1%。

In banking & wealth management, revenue was down 7% year-on-year on deposit margin compression and lower deposits, partially offset by growth in wealth management revenue.

在銀行及理財業務方面，由於存款保證金壓縮和存款減少，營收年減7%，但部分被理財收入的成長所抵銷。

Average deposits were down 4% year-on-year and flat sequentially as consumer balances have stabilized.

由於消費者餘額趨於穩定，平均存款年減 4%，較上季持平。

Client investment assets were up 14% year-on-year predominantly driven by market performance and we continue to see healthy flows across branch and digital channels.

客戶投資資產年增 14%，主要受到市場表現的推動，我們持續看到分公司和數位通路的健康流動。

In home lending, revenue was up 12% year-on-year predominantly driven by higher production revenue.

在房屋貸款方面，收入年增 12%，主要是由於生產收入增加。

Turning to card services & auto.

轉向卡服務和汽車。

Revenue was up 14% year-on-year largely driven by card NII on higher holding balances.

營收年增 14%，主要是由於卡片 NII 持有餘額增加所致。

Card outstandings were up 11% due to strong account acquisition and revolve growth.

由於強勁的客戶獲取和循環成長，信用卡未償餘額增加了 11%。

And in auto, originations were $10.6 billion, up 7%, reflecting higher lease volume on robust new vehicle inventory.

在汽車領域，起始金額為 106 億美元，成長 7%，反映出強勁的新車庫存導致租賃量增加。

Expenses of $9.7 billion were up 4% year-on-year predominantly driven by field compensation and growth in technology.

費用為 97 億美元，年增 4%，主要受到現場補償和技術成長的推動。

In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.1 billion, up $428 million year-on-year driven by card.

就本季信貸表現而言，信貸成本為 26 億美元，反映淨沖銷 21 億美元，在卡片的推動下年增 4.28 億美元。

The net reserve build was $557 million predominantly driven by higher card revolving balances.

淨準備金建設為 5.57 億美元，主要是由信用卡循環餘額增加所推動的。

Next, the commercial & investment bank on page 6.

接下來是第 6 頁的商業和投資銀行。

CIB reported net income of $6.6 billion on revenue of $17.6 billion. IB

CIB 報告淨利潤為 66 億美元，營收為 176 億美元。 IB

fees were up 49% year-on-year, and we ranked number one with wallet share of 9.3% for 2024.

費用年增 49%，2024 年我們以 9.3% 的錢包份額排名第一。

Advisory fees were up 41%, benefiting from large deals and share growth in a number of key sectors.

由於大型交易和多個關鍵行業的份額增長，諮詢費上漲了 41%。

Underwriting fees were up meaningfully with debt up 56% and equity up 54% primarily driven by favorable market conditions.

承銷費用大幅上漲，債務上漲 56%，股本上漲 54%，這主要是由於有利的市場條件。

In terms of the outlook for the overall investment banking wallet, in light of the positive momentum, we remain optimistic about our pipeline.

就整體投資銀行錢包的前景而言，鑑於積極的勢頭，我們對我們的管道保持樂觀。

Payments revenue was $4.7 billion, up 3% year-on-year, excluding equity investments driven by higher deposit balances and fee growth, largely offset by deposit margin compression.

支付收入為 47 億美元，年增 3%，不包括存款餘額增加和費用成長推動的股權投資，但大部分被存款保證金壓縮所抵銷。

Lending revenue was $1.9 billion, up 9% year-on-year predominantly driven by lower losses on hedges.

貸款收入為 19 億美元，年增 9%，主要是由於對沖損失減少。

Moving to markets.

轉向市場。

Total revenue was $7 billion, up 21% year-on-year.

總收入為70億美元，年增21%。

Fixed income was up 20% with better performance in credit as well as continued outperformance in currencies in emerging markets.

固定收益成長了 20%，信貸表現較好，新興市場貨幣表現持續優異。

Equities was up 22% on elevated client activity and derivatives amid increased volatility and higher trading volumes in cash.

由於波動性增加和現金交易量增加，客戶活動和衍生性商品增加，股票上漲 22%。

Securities services revenue was $1.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year driven by fee growth on higher client activity and market levels as well as higher deposit balances.

證券服務收入為 13 億美元，年增 10%，這主要是由於客戶活動和市場水平提高以及存款餘額增加導致費用增長。

Expenses of $8.7 billion were up 7% year-on-year predominantly driven by higher brokerage, technology and legal expense.

費用為 87 億美元，年增 7%，主要是由於經紀、技術和法律費用增加。

Average banking and payments loans were down 2% year-on-year and down 1% sequentially.

平均銀行和支付貸款年減 2%，較上季下降 1%。

Global corporate and investment banking loans were down 2% quarter-on-quarter driven by paydowns and lower short-term financing, primarily offset by new originations.

由於還款和短期融資減少，全球企業和投資銀行貸款較上季下降 2%，但主要被新發放貸款所抵銷。

In commercial banking, middle market loans were also down 2% driven by paydowns predominantly offset by new originations.

在商業銀行業務中，中間市場貸款也下降了 2%，因為還款額主要被新發放的貸款所抵銷。

And commercial real estate loans were flat as new originations were offset by paydowns.

商業房地產貸款持平，因為新貸款被還款所抵消。

Average client deposits were up 9% year-on-year and 5% sequentially driven by underlying client growth.

在基礎客戶成長的推動下，平均客戶存款年增 9%，較上季成長 5%。

Finally, credit costs were $61 million driven by net downgrade activity and the net impact of charge-offs, offset -- largely offset by a reserve release due to an update to certain loss assumptions.

最後，信貸成本為 6,100 萬美元，這是由淨降級活動和沖銷的淨影響推動的，抵消了——很大程度上被某些損失假設更新導致的準備金釋放所抵消。

Then to complete our lines of business, asset & wealth management on page 7.

然後完成第 7 頁的業務、資產和財富管理。

AWM reported net income of $1.5 billion with pretax margin of 35%.

AWM 報告淨利潤為 15 億美元，稅前利潤率為 35%。

Revenue of $5.8 billion was up 13% year-on-year predominantly driven by growth in management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows as well as higher performance fees.

營收為 58 億美元，年增 13%，主要是由於平均市場水準較高、淨流入強勁以及績效費用較高而導致管理費成長。

Expenses of $3.8 billion were up 11% year-on-year predominantly driven by higher compensation, including revenue-related compensation and continued growth in our private banking and advisor teams as well as higher distribution fees.

費用為 38 億美元，年增 11%，主要是由於薪酬上漲，包括與收入相關的薪酬、私人銀行和顧問團隊的持續增長以及分銷費用的上漲。

Long-term net inflows were $76 billion for the quarter, positive across all asset classes.

本季長期淨流入為 760 億美元，所有資產類別均為正值。

In liquidity, we saw net inflows of $94 billion for the quarter and $104 billion for the full year -- $140 billion for the full year, sorry.

在流動性方面，我們看到本季淨流入 940 億美元，全年淨流入 1,040 億美元——抱歉，全年淨流入 1,400 億美元。

And we had client asset net inflows of $468 billion for the year.

今年我們的客戶資產淨流入為 4,680 億美元。

AUM of $4 trillion and client assets of $5.9 trillion were both up 18% year-on-year driven by continued net inflows and higher market loans.

在持續淨流入和市場貸款增加的推動下，資產管理規模達 4 兆美元，客戶資產達 5.9 兆美元，年增 18%。

And finally, loans were up 2% quarter-on-quarter, and deposits were up 5% quarter-on-quarter.

最後，貸款較上季成長2%，存款較上季成長5%。

Turning to corporate on page 8.

轉向第 8 頁的公司。

Corporate reported net income of $1.3 billion.

公司報告淨利潤為 13 億美元。

Revenue of $2 billion was up $223 million year-on-year.

營收20億美元，年增2.23億美元。

NII of $2 billion was down $415 million year-on-year driven by the impact of lower rates, largely offset by balance sheet actions, primarily securities reinvestment activity.

由於利率下降的影響，NII 為 20 億美元，年減 4.15 億美元，但很大程度上被資產負債表行動（主要是證券再投資活動）所抵銷。

NIR was a net loss of $30 million compared with a net loss of $668 million in the prior year driven by lower net investment securities losses this quarter.

NIR 淨虧損 3,000 萬美元，而上一年淨虧損為 6.68 億美元，原因是本季淨投資證券虧損減少。

And expenses of $550 million were down $3 billion year-on-year predominantly driven by the absence of the FDIC special assessment of $2.9 billion in the prior year.

5.5 億美元的支出比去年同期減少了 30 億美元，主要是由於去年 FDIC 沒有進行 29 億美元的特別評估。

With that, let's pivot to the outlook, starting with NII on page 9.

接下來，讓我們從第 9 頁的 NII 開始展望前景。

We expect 2025 NII ex markets to be approximately $90 billion.

我們預計 2025 年 NII 前市場規模約為 900 億美元。

Going through the drivers, as usual, the outlook assumes that rates follow the forward curve.

像往常一樣，回顧驅動因素，前景假設利率遵循遠期曲線。

It's worth noting that the NII decrease is driven by both the cut expected in 2025 and the impact of the 100 basis points of cuts in the back half of 2024.

值得注意的是，NII下降的原因既有2025年預期降息，也有2024年下半年降息100個基點的影響。

You can see on the page that we've illustrated the historical trajectory of card loan growth.

您可以在頁面上看到我們已經說明了卡片貸款成長的歷史軌跡。

We expect healthy card loan growth again this year but below the 12% pace we saw in 2024 as tailwinds from revolver normalization are largely behind us.

我們預計今年卡貸款將再次健康成長，但將低於 2024 年 12% 的增速，因為左輪手槍正常化帶來的利好已基本過去。

Turning to deposits.

轉向存款。

Firm-wide deposits have stabilized, and we expect to see a more visible growth trend to assert itself in the second half of 2025.

全公司存款已趨於穩定，我們預計 2025 年下半年將出現更明顯的成長趨勢。

It's notable that we can already see that trend in consumer checking deposits.

值得注意的是，我們已經可以看到消費者支票存款的趨勢。

On deposit margin, we expect modest compression due to lower rates.

在存款保證金方面，我們預期由於利率較低，存款保證金將適度壓縮。

When you put all that together, we expect the NII trough could be sometime in the middle of the year, followed by growth as we illustrated at the bottom of the bar.

當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們預計 NII 的低谷可能會在今年年中的某個時候，然後是增長，正如我們在條形圖底部所示的那樣。

And for completeness, we expect firm-wide NII to be approximately $94 billion as a function of markets NII increasing to about $4 billion, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR.

為了完整起見，我們預計公司範圍內的 NII 約為 940 億美元，隨著市場 NII 增加到約 40 億美元，您應該認為這主要被 NIR 抵消。

Finally, I want to point out that starting this quarter, we are including an estimate of earnings at risk in the earnings supplement, so you no longer have to wait for the K or the Q to get that number.

最後，我想指出，從本季開始，我們將在收益補充中包含對風險收益的估計，因此您不再需要等待 K 或 Q 才能獲得該數字。

Now let's turn to expenses on page 10.

現在讓我們來看看第 10 頁的費用。

We expect 2025 expense to be about $95 billion.

我們預計 2025 年的支出約為 950 億美元。

Looking at the chart in the middle of the page, I'll touch on the drivers of the year-on-year change, which you'll note are very consistent with what you've been hearing from us recently.

看看頁面中間的圖表，我將談論同比變化的驅動因素，您會注意到這與您最近從我們那裡聽到的非常一致。

The largest increase is volume and revenue-related expense, which is primarily driven by expected growth in auto leasing as well as capital markets.

增幅最大的是銷售量和收入相關費用，這主要是由汽車租賃和資本市場的預期成長所推動的。

As a reminder, this comes with higher revenues.

提醒一下，這會帶來更高的收入。

We continue to hire bankers and advisers to support business growth as well as expand our branch network.

我們繼續聘請銀行家和顧問來支持業務成長並擴大我們的分行網路。

The increase in tax spend is primarily business driven as we continue to invest in new products, features and customer platforms as well as modernization.

稅收支出的增加主要是由業務驅動的，因為我們繼續投資於新產品、功能和客戶平台以及現代化。

Marketing remains a driver of spend as we continue to see attractive opportunities, resulting in strong demand and engagement in our card business.

行銷仍然是支出的驅動力，因為我們繼續看到有吸引力的機會，從而導致我們的卡片業務的強勁需求和參與。

And finally, while we haven't explicitly called it out in each bar, inflation remains a source of some upward pressure.

最後，雖然我們沒有在每個柱子中明確指出這一點，但通膨仍然是一些上行壓力的來源。

And as always, we are generating efficiencies to help offset it.

一如既往，我們正在提高效率來幫助抵消這一影響。

Now let's turn to page 11 to cover credit and wrap up.

現在讓我們翻到第 11 頁進行介紹和總結。

On credit, we expect the 2025 card net charge-off rate to be in line with our previous guidance of approximately 3.6%.

在信貸方面，我們預計 2025 年信用卡淨沖銷率將與我們先前約 3.6% 的指引一致。

So in closing, 2024 was another year of record revenue and net income.

因此，總而言之，2024 年又是營收和淨利創紀錄的一年。

And we're proud of what we accomplished.

我們為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。

As we look ahead to 2025, we still expect NII normalization, although to a lesser extent than we previously thought.

展望 2025 年，我們仍然預期 NII 會正常化，儘管程度低於我們先前的預期。

And taking a step back, we think it's important to acknowledge the tension in the risks and uncertainties in the environment and the degree of optimism embedded in asset prices and expectations.

退一步說，我們認為重要的是要承認環境中風險和不確定性的緊張程度以及資產價格和預期中的樂觀程度。

In that context, we remain upbeat about the strength of the franchise, but we are focused on being prepared for a wide range of scenarios.

在這種情況下，我們對特許經營權的實力保持樂觀，但我們專注於為各種情況做好準備。

Finally, let me say a few words about the wildfires in Los Angeles.

最後我再說一下洛杉磯山火的事。

While we don't expect much of a financial impact from it, we have a presence in the area across all three lines of business.

雖然我們預計不會產生太大的財務影響，但我們在該地區的所有三個業務領域都有業務。

So we're keeping in close contact with our customers, clients and employees.

因此，我們與客戶、客戶和員工保持密切聯繫。

We are offering support in a variety of ways, including waiving consumer and business banking fees as well as making a contribution to local relief organizations, offering employee donation matching and supporting employee volunteer efforts.

我們以多種方式提供支持，包括免除消費者和企業銀行費用、向當地救援組織捐款、提供員工捐款匹配和支持員工志工工作。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jamie before we open up the line for Q&A.

這樣，在我們開通問答線路之前，我會將其轉交給傑米。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

I just want to point out that Daniel Pinto is not leaving the company yet.

我只是想指出丹尼爾·平托還沒有離開公司。

So is it premature what I'm about to do -- I just want to say I'd be -- I'd be remiss not to say, here's a young man who joined the company at 20 years old in Argentina.

那麼，我現在要做的事情是否為時過早——我只是想說——如果不說，這是一位20歲在阿根廷加入公司的年輕人，那就太失職了。

He ran trading in Argentina, then he ran trading for Latin America.

他負責阿根廷的貿易，然後負責拉丁美洲的貿易。

Then he ran global emerging market trading, then he ran fixed income trading and then became our Co-Head of the Investment Bank and has shown us that -- best bank for 10 years.

然後他負責全球新興市場交易，然後他負責固定收益交易，然後成為我們投資銀行的聯席主管，並向我們展示了——十年來最好的銀行。

Over that whole time, helping build one of the great investment banks in the world.

在這段時間裡，幫助建立了世界上最偉大的投資銀行之一。

And so and then obviously the President for five years or more, a great partner of mine, trusted by everyone at the company.

顯然，他擔任了五年或更長時間的總裁，是我的一個偉大的合作夥伴，受到公司每個人的信任。

So we're thrilled to have his skills and talents going forward, but I just wanted to recognize the contributions he made.

因此，我們很高興看到他的技能和才華不斷進步，但我只是想表彰他所做的貢獻。

Great.

偉大的。

All right.

好的。

So let's go to questions.

那我們就來提問吧。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

約翰麥克唐納，Truist 證券公司。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Jeremy, I wanted to ask about capital and I know you get this question a lot about the kind of high class dilemma of your growing capital base and your perspective of that as earnings in store.

傑里米，我想問關於資本的問題，我知道你經常被問到這個問題，關於你不斷增長的資本基礎的高級困境，以及你對儲存收益的看法。

So I guess what's the framework for thinking about the opportunity cost of sitting on the growing base of capital and how high you might let that go versus your patience in waiting for more attractive deployment opportunities?

因此，我想思考坐擁不斷增長的資本基礎的機會成本的框架是什麼，以及您可以將其放多高，而不是等待更有吸引力的部署機會的耐心？

Yeah.

是的。

Good question, John, and welcome back, by the way.

好問題，約翰，順便說一句，歡迎回來。

John.

約翰.

I read your (inaudible) the other day.

前幾天我讀了你的（聽不清楚）。

It took me quite a while, but it was good work.

我花了很長時間，但這是很好的工作。

So yeah, you've noted all the points that we always make, so I won't repeat them.

是的，您已經注意到我們一直提出的所有觀點，所以我不會重複它們。

And I think the way we're thinking about it right now is that we feel very comfortable with the notion that it makes sense for us to have a nice store of extra capital in light of the current environment.

我認為我們現在考慮這個問題的方式是，我們對這樣一個想法感到非常滿意：鑑於當前的環境，我們擁有大量額外資本是有意義的。

We believe there is a good chance that there will be a moment where we get to deploy it at better levels essentially in whatever way than the current opportunities would suggest.

我們相信，很有可能有一天我們可以以比當前機會所建議的任何方式更好的水平部署它。

And so that feels like a correct kind of strategic and financial decision for us.

因此，這對我們來說是一個正確的策略和財務決策。

Having said that, having studied it quite extensively over the last 6 months and have all these debates you would expect, we've concluded that we do have enough.

話雖如此，在過去 6 個月裡對其進行了相當廣泛的研究，並進行了您所期望的所有這些辯論後，我們得出的結論是，我們確實已經足夠了。

We have enough excess.

我們有足夠的過剩。

And given that, we would like to not have the excess grow from here.

有鑑於此，我們不希望這裡出現過多的成長。

So when you think about the implications of that, given the amount of organic capital generation that we're producing, it means that unless we find in the near-term opportunities for organic deployments or otherwise, it means more capital return through buybacks, all else being equal, in order to arrest the growth of the excess.

因此，當你考慮到這一點的影響時，考慮到我們正在產生的有機資本生成量，這意味著除非我們在短期內找到有機部署的機會或其他方式，否則這意味著透過回購獲得更多資本回報，所有在其他條件相同的情況下，為了阻止過剩的成長。

And that is our current plan.

這就是我們目前的計劃。

I'll give the caveat there, as you know, is in our disclosure, which is we don't want to get into the business of guiding on buybacks.

如您所知，我會在我們的揭露中提出警告，即我們不想涉足回購指導業務。

And we reserve the right to change the trajectory at any time for any reason, but that is our current thinking.

我們保留以任何理由隨時改變軌跡的權利，但這是我們目前的想法。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

And then just as a follow up, we think about the investment spend agenda this year, how does it differ from say last year or last couple of years across lines of business and this kind of certainty of return spectrum you've talked about?

然後，作為後續行動，我們思考今年的投資支出議程，它與去年或過去幾年的業務線有何不同，以及您談到的這種回報範圍的確定性？

And then what kind of efficiencies are baked into the outlook as well?

那麼，什麼樣的效率也納入前景呢？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I mean the truth is, and I guess this is a good thing that the teams are remarkably consistent.

我的意思是事實是，我認為團隊非常一致是一件好事。

So we are seeing the results of our kind of high certainty investment choices across all the categories that you know very well and that we highlighted on the outlook page for expenses, and those continue to be the main areas of focus.

因此，我們正在看到我們在您非常了解的所有類別中進行高確定性投資選擇的結果，並且我們在支出展望頁面上強調了這些類別，而這些仍然是主要關注領域。

The execution gets (inaudible) at the margin as we pursue different opportunities in the commercial & investment bank.

當我們在商業和投資銀行尋求不同的機會時，執行會變得（聽不清楚）邊際。

We continue drilling down and analyzing into the relative pockets of weakness that you might see if you go a level or two below the very significantly strong share positions that you see on an aggregate level.

我們將繼續深入研究並分析相對弱勢的部分，如果您的股票頭寸比您在總體水平上看到的非常顯著的強勢股票頭寸低一兩級，您可能會看到這些弱勢。

Daniel always talked about the reds and the ambers that are behind the greens, and that's embedded in the culture of the company.

丹尼爾總是談論綠色背後的紅色和琥珀色，這已經融入了公司的文化中。

So we do that everywhere and continue analyzing and iterating.

所以我們到處都這樣做，並繼續分析和迭代。

And we throw resources against that stuff as we do that.

當我們這樣做時，我們會投入資源來對付這些東西。

But broadly, the teams are very consistent.

但總的來說，團隊非常一致。

I think in terms of efficiency, a couple of things to say, which you know well.

我認為在效率方面，有幾件事要說，你很清楚。

One is when we think about efficiency and how we've generated at this company, it's organic, it's BAU, it's evergreen.

一是當我們考慮效率以及我們如何在這家公司創造收益時，它是有機的，它是 BAU，它是常青的。

It happens every day and all the teams everywhere.

這種事每天都會發生，而且所有團隊都在各地。

And so that is sort of [carbon] bottoms-up culture, and that remains the case.

這就是一種自下而上的[碳]文化，而且情況仍然如此。

We do have a few top-down areas of focus.

我們確實有一些自上而下的重點領域。

I think if I go, for example, in technology for starters, we're putting a lot of effort into improving the sort of ability of our software engineers to be productive as they do development.

我認為，例如，如果我進入初學者技術領域，我們就會投入大量精力來提高我們的軟體工程師在開發時的生產力。

And there's been a lot of focus on the development environment for them in order to enable them to be more productive.

為了提高他們的工作效率，人們非常關注他們的開發環境。

And so all else equal, that generates a little bit of efficiency.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這會產生一點效率。

We also have a lot of efficient -- a lot of focus on the efficiency of our hardware utilization, and so that's embedded in there as well.

我們也有很多效率——非常注重硬體利用率的效率，所以這也嵌入其中。

And another thing that's worth noting, you'll recall that at Investor Day I talked about how we had probably reached peak modernization spend.

另一件值得注意的事情是，您會記得在投資者日上我談到了我們如何可能達到現代化支出的峰值。

As Jamie always says, we're always modernizing.

正如傑米常說的，我們一直在現代化。

So the fact that we've gotten to a peak and then it might come down a little bit from here still means we're going to be constantly modernizing.

因此，我們已經達到了頂峰，然後可能會從這裡開始下降，這一事實仍然意味著我們將繼續現代化。

But on the margin, that means that inside the tech teams, there's a little bit of capacity to get freed up to focus on features and new product development and so on, which is also, in some sense, a form of efficiency.

但從某種程度上來說，這意味著在技術團隊內部，有一點能力可以釋放出來，專注於功能和新產品開發等，從某種意義上來說，這也是一種效率形式。

Finally, though, what I would say is that if you look at the headcount trajectory of the company over the last few years, we have grown a lot and has been for very good reasons.

不過，最後，我想說的是，如果你看看公司過去幾年的員工人數軌跡，你會發現我們已經成長了很多，而且這是有充分理由的。

And it has contributed quite a bit to our growth and our ability to run the company efficiently.

它對我們的成長和我們高效經營公司的能力做出了相當大的貢獻。

But any time you have that quantum of headcount growth as well as that rate of headcount growth, you have to believe, all else equal, that some amount of inefficiency has been introduced.

但只要你有這樣的員工數量成長以及員工數量成長速度，你就必須相信，在其他條件相同的情況下，已經引入了一定程度的低效率。

And so this year, as we went through the budget cycle, we ask people at the margin to try to support the growth of the company while living within their means on the headcount front.

因此，今年，當我們經歷預算週期時，我們要求邊緣人員努力支持公司的發展，同時在員工數量方面量入為出。

So we're going to try to run things with some important exceptions that I'll highlight in a second on roughly flat headcount and how that lead to people generating internal efficiencies as they get creative with their teams, and we consider more efficient ways of doing things.

因此，我們將嘗試在一些重要的例外情況下開展工作，我將在稍後重點介紹員工人數大致持平的情況，以及這如何導致人們在與團隊一起發揮創造力時產生內部效率，並且我們考慮更有效的方法做事。

The obvious exceptions are the ongoing areas of high certainty investment and growth.

明顯的例外是持續存在的高確定性投資和成長領域。

So obviously, branches and bankers and so on and also critical non-negotiable areas of risk and control like cyber or whatever independent risk management needs to ensure that we're running the company safely.

顯然，分行和銀行家等，以及關鍵的不可協商的風險和控制領域，如網路或任何獨立的風險管理需要確保我們安全地經營公司。

So that's how we're thinking about efficiency in the current moment.

這就是我們當下思考效率的方式。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hi.

你好。

Simple, and then more difficult, I guess.

我想，簡單，然後更困難。

Jamie, who's your successor?

傑米，誰是你的繼任者？

And then the second question is, I know I asked the question at Investor Day, how -- why not stay a CEO a little bit longer, I think what I'm hearing from investors now.

第二個問題是，我知道我在投資者日問過這個問題，為什麼不繼續擔任執行長一段時間，我想我現在從投資者那裡聽到了什麼。

It goes up and down, but I think investors would like you to stay.

它有起有落，但我認為投資者希望你留下來。

So why say you're going to stay less than five years?

那為什麼說你會停留不到五年呢？

You're finally getting what you wanted. 15 years of your spaghetti chart about the regulatory structure and the unpredictability of capital requirements and the regulatory costs.

你終於得到你想要的了。 15 年關於監管結構以及資本要求和監管成本的不可預測性的意大利麵條圖。

And it seems like you're finally getting what you've been playing for.

看起來你終於得到你一直在玩的東西了。

So why not stay around a bit longer if investors want you to do so?

那麼，如果投資人希望你這樣做，為什麼不停留更久呢？

And what would you do otherwise anyway, you don't play golf, you aren't going to be Treasury Secretary.

否則你會做什麼，你不打高爾夫球，你就不會成為財政部長。

Seems like your work is your hobby, right?

看來你的工作就是你的嗜好，對吧？

So, how much longer would you say around?

那麼，你說還要多久？

I do love what I do and to answer the second question first, look, we're on a path.

我確實喜歡我所做的事情，首先回答第二個問題，看，我們正在一條路上。

The path is not just about me, it's about the other senior people in the company, it's about the Board.

這條道路不僅與我有關，也與公司的其他高階人員有關，與董事會有關。

If I'm here for several more years and -- I may or may not be Chairman, it's going to be up to the Board.

如果我再在這裡工作幾年——我可能會也可能不會擔任主席，這將取決於董事會。

Does it really fit the new CEO and stuff like that.

它真的適合新任執行長之類的嗎？

Now, you're talking potentially for five years or more.

現在，您談論的可能是五年或更長時間。

I'm 60 -- I'll be 69 in March.

我今年 60 歲了——三月我就 69 歲了。

I think it's the rational thing to do.

我認為這是理性的做法。

I've had a couple of health problems you know.

你知道，我有一些健康問題。

I just think it makes a lot of sense.

我只是覺得這很有道理。

And so -- and what was your first question again?

那麼——你的第一個問題又是什麼？

Who's your successor?

誰是你的繼任者？

I mean

我是說

--?

——？

I mean this is an unfortunate thing for any big company like this where these people have to be in the spotlight all the time and all the toing and froing.

我的意思是，對於任何像這樣的大公司來說，這都是一件不幸的事情，因為這些人必須一直處於聚光燈下，並且不斷地來回走動。

We have several exceptional people.

我們有幾位傑出的人才。

You guys know most of them.

你們認識其中的大多數。

Maybe one or two you don't know.

也許有一兩個你不知道。

The Board reviews and meets with them all the time.

董事會一直在審查並與他們會面。

I think it's wonderful that Jenn Piepszak, who does not want to be the CEO, will be here as Chief Operating Officer and stay after that.

我認為，不想擔任執行長的 Jenn Piepszak 將作為首席營運長留在這裡，並在此後留下來，這真是太好了。

So obviously, she's going to work with those people because I think it's a great thing for a company is having continuity of management and leadership.

顯然，她將與這些人一起工作，因為我認為對於一家公司來說，擁有連續性的管理和領導力是一件好事。

And it will be in all those people.

這將在所有這些人身上。

And obviously, we're not going to tell the press, but it's not determined yet.

顯然，我們不會告訴媒體，但目前還沒有確定。

And of course, the last minute, a couple of years from now people get sick, they change their mind or family circumstances.

當然，在最後一刻，幾年後，人們會生病，他們會改變主意或家庭狀況。

So even if you thought you knew today, you couldn't be completely sure.

所以即使你認為你今天知道了，你也不能完全確定。

So you'll stay around maybe for a few more years, base case right now.

所以你可能會再待幾年，現在是基本情況。

Yeah, basic case.

是的，基本情況。

Yeah.

是的。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，海港環球證券公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Maybe just on regulation, we have a new administration coming in.

也許只是在監管方面，我們有一個新政府上任。

We have a new, -- soon to be, I guess a new head of regulation at the Fed.

我想我們很快就會有一位新的聯準會監管負責人。

So maybe just talk about again, what areas of the regulatory structure if it were to change would be most impactful for you?

所以也許再談談，如果監管結構發生變化，哪些領域對您影響最大？

And is there any areas where you think capital requirements could actually go down or is this more of a story of requirements just simply stop going up?

您認為是否有任何領域的資本要求實際上可能會下降，或者這更多的是要求的故事只是停止上升？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, Jim, I mean, it's obviously something we're thinking about a lot.

嘿，吉姆，我的意思是，這顯然是我們經常思考的事情。

But I could go down some pretty deep rabbit holes speculating on all the different parts of the framework and how they could evolve.

但我可以深入一些相當深的兔子洞來推測框架的所有不同部分以及它們如何發展。

And I just don't really think that's productive right now, but let me make so much time to answer your question.

我只是認為現在這並沒有什麼成效，但讓我花很多時間來回答你的問題。

So backing up a second, if you read Jamie's quotes, they're very consistent with what we've been saying as a company for a long time, which is that all we want is a coherent rational, holistically assessed regulatory framework that allows banks to do their job supporting the economy that isn't reflexibly anti bank.

所以，再說一遍，如果你讀過傑米的引言，它們與我們長期以來作為一家公司所說的非常一致，那就是我們想要的是一個連貫合理、全面評估的監管框架，讓銀行能夠他們的工作是支持經濟，而不是本能地反對銀行。

It doesn't default to the answer to every question being more of everything, more capital, more liquidity it uses data and it balances the obvious goal that we all share the statements (inaudible) on banking system with actually recognizing the banks play a critical role in supporting growth.

它並不默認每個問題的答案都是更多的一切，更多的資本，更多的流動性，它使用數據，它平衡了我們所有人都在銀行系統上分享聲明（聽不清楚）的明顯目標，同時實際上認識到銀行發揮關鍵作用。

And the hope is that, we get some of that and that also while we're at it, some aspects of the supervisory framework, get a little bit less bureaucratic and a little bit less adversarial and a little bit more substantive so that the margin, management can focus its time on the things that matter the most.

我們希望，我們能得到其中的一些，而且在我們參與的同時，監管框架的某些方面，能少一點官僚主義，少一點對抗性，多一點實質性，以便，管理層可以將時間集中在最重要的事情上。

So whether capital goes up down stays flat is really so complicated because it's not just possible three end game, it's also adhesive, it's also a number of other factors.

因此，資本是否上漲、下跌是否保持平穩確實非常複雜，因為這不僅是可能的三局遊戲，而且具有黏性，還有許多其他因素。

And that's why we keep hammering away on the importance of doing all of this holistically properly with the right analysis.

這就是為什麼我們不斷強調透過正確的分析全面正確地完成所有這些工作的重要性。

And that takes time.

這需要時間。

So it'll be.

所以會這樣。

Great, Jeremy gave it all.

太好了，傑里米付出了一切。

You have three quick things.

你有三件快速的事情。

Liquidity is also equally important.

流動性也同樣重要。

There's been a lot of recognition that what council liquidity and discount windows and how else here are done, I think is very important.

我認為，議會流動性和折扣窗口的內容以及其他方式的實現方式非常重要，這一點得到了許多人的認可。

Second is competition, all of these things should be done in light of looking at what kind of public marks you want, what kind of private marks you want, what do you want in the banking system?

第二是競爭，所有這些事情都應該根據你想要什麼樣的公共標記、你想要什麼樣的私人標記、你想要在銀行體系中得到什麼來完成。

What do you want out of the banking system?

您想從銀行系統中得到什麼？

And the third is, I think most people realize there is a huge need to take a step back and look at the Byzantine bulk and I system built which has negatives and even the regular to tell you that.

第三，我認為大多數人都意識到，非常需要退後一步，看看拜占庭式的散裝和我構建的系統，其中有負面因素，甚至是常規的東西來告訴你這一點。

So one point just takes a deep breath as I, as Jeremy said that do the right thing have the and continue to have the best financial system in the world.

因此，正如傑里米所說，我需要深吸一口氣，做正確的事，擁有並將繼續擁有世界上最好的金融體系。

Yeah, that makes sense.

是的，這是有道理的。

And maybe just as a follow up just on loan growth, have you since the election?

也許只是作為貸款成長的後續行動，自大選以來你有嗎？

It seems like CEO confidence; business confidence has increased.

這似乎是CEO的信心；企業信心有所增強。

So are you starting to see any improvement in demand on lending?

那麼您是否開始看到貸款需求有所改善？

Just any thoughts there would be great.

任何想法都會很棒。

Yeah, it's a good question and I think given the significant improvement in business sentiment and the general optimism out there, you might have expected to see some pickup long growth.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，我認為鑑於商業情緒的顯著改善和普遍的樂觀情緒，您可能會預期會看到長期成長的回升。

We are not really seeing that.

我們並沒有真正看到這一點。

I don't particularly think that's a negative.

我並不特別認為這是負面的。

I think it's probably explained by a combination of wide open capital markets and so many of the larger Corporates, -- Corporates accessing the capital markets, and healthy balance sheets and small businesses and maybe some residual caution and maybe there are some pockets in some industries where some aspects of the policy, uncertainty that we might be facing are making them a little bit more cautious and they otherwise would be about what they're executing in the near term.

我認為這可能是由廣泛開放的資本市場和許多大型企業的結合來解釋的，企業進入資本市場，健康的資產負債表和小型企業，也許還有一些剩餘的謹慎態度，也許某些行業有一些口袋政策的某些方面，我們可能面臨的不確定性使他們更加謹慎，否則他們會對近期執行的事情更加謹慎。

But we'll see what the New Year brings.

但我們會看看新年會帶來什麼。

As the current optimism starts getting tested with reality one way or the other.

當前的樂觀情緒開始受到現實的考驗。

And maybe if it materializes with tangible improvements and things one way or the other, you'll actually see that come through C&I one growth in particular.

也許如果它透過切實的改進和事情以某種方式實現，你實際上會看到這一點尤其是透過 C&I 的成長而實現。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Wanted to follow up on the questions on capital and maybe ask about some of Jeremy, the cross currents in terms of the denominator.

想跟進有關資本的問題，也許也想問傑里米的一些問題，即分母方面的交叉流。

So if we look at the third quarter, regulatory data for your GSIB surcharge score, that would imply that your score would put you in a range of a 5% GSIB.

因此，如果我們查看第三季 GSIB 附加費分數的監管數據，這意味著您的分數將處於 5% GSIB 的範圍內。

So obviously, from what we understand, if you print that, somewhere near that score at the end of this year, then your GSIB surcharge goes up by 5% or by 50 basis points, two years and one day from now.

顯然，根據我們的理解，如果你在今年年底印出接近該分數的數據，那麼兩年零一天后，你的 GSIB 附加費就會上漲 5% 或 50 個基點。

At the same time, around the holidays, we did get the press release from both the Federal Reserve and the lawsuit from the banks in terms of the transparency.

同時，在假期前後，我們確實收到了聯準會的新聞稿和銀行在透明度方面的訴訟。

It's, -- it looks like the transparency is going to be focused on perhaps being improved as soon as this year's stress test.

看起來透明度將在今年的壓力測試後儘快得到改善。

So as we think of about the definition of excess right, because part of this is like 15.7 is clearly a huge number.

因此，當我們思考超額權利的定義時，因為其中一部分就像 15.7 顯然是一個巨大的數字。

So as we think about your returns going forward, the definition of excess also continues to shift.

因此，當我們考慮未來的報酬時，超額的定義也在不斷改變。

So how should we think about those cross currents in terms of, two big components?

那麼，我們應該如何從兩個主要組成部分來考慮這些交叉流呢？

Clearly one is your GSIB surcharge and the other is your stress capital buffer.

顯然，一個是您的 GSIB 附加費，另一個是您的壓力資本緩衝。

Right.

正確的。

Erika.

埃里卡。

Okay.

好的。

You are tempting me with many rabbit holes that are very deep.

你用許多很深的兔子洞來誘惑我。

Let's try to address this not too much, great length.

讓我們試著用不太長的篇幅來解決這個問題。

First of all, GSIB, so yes, it was a high print in the third quarter, but we had normal seasonality, third quarter, the fourth quarter.

首先，GSIB，是的，第三季的列印量很高，但我們有正常的季節性，第三季、第四季。

So while our current view, the GSIB number is an estimate, we're quite confident that we wound up comfortably in the 5% bucket just as a result of normal seasonality.

因此，雖然我們目前認為 GSIB 數字是估計值，但我們非常有信心，由於正常的季節性因素，我們最終會輕鬆進入 5% 的範圍。

It was actually a relatively quiet December in terms of the types of year end things that sometimes create pressures and various types.

就有時會產生壓力的年終事務和各種類型而言，這實際上是一個相對安靜的十二月。

So that is more or less what you might have otherwise expected in terms of our typical seasonal pattern.

因此，這或多或少是您對我們典型的季節性模式的預期。

So not much to see there.

所以那裡沒什麼好看的。

And the obvious point also being that even under the existing proposed user rule, which is obviously a little bit hung up, with the smaller buckets and some recalibration and so on, it's not even sort of obvious that it would have mattered one way or the other, but anyway, for now, we're managing to the current rules and normal seasonality took us back under 5%.

顯而易見的一點還在於，即使在現有的擬議用戶規則下，這顯然有點懸而未決，因為桶較小，並且進行了一些重新校準等，但它甚至不明顯地表明它會以某種方式或其他，但無論如何，目前我們正在遵守現行規則，正常的季節性因素使我們的利潤率回落到5% 以下。

Okay, you mentioned the lawsuit.

好吧，你提到了訴訟。

I think the only thing to say about that is that, we are happy to see the clear recognition the part of the Fed that many of the things that we've been talking about for a long time in terms of transparency and volatility.

我認為對此唯一要說的是，我們很高興看到聯準會明確認識到我們長期以來在透明度和波動性方面討論的許多事情。

And some of the, non-substantive bureaucratic burden associated with the [seggar] process needs improvement.

與 [seggar] 流程相關的一些非實質官僚負擔需要改進。

So that's great.

那太好了。

I think, I won't speak for the industry bodies that were the actual litigants.

我想，我不會代表真正的訴訟當事人的行業機構發言。

But it seems to me if you just read what they said publicly in their press releases, this is as much as anything about preserving rights and in light of the Statute of Limitations deadlines that were coming up.

但在我看來，如果你只閱讀他們在新聞稿中公開表示的內容，這與保護權利和考慮到即將到來的訴訟時效期限一樣重要。

So let's just hope that we see some significant progress on that front.

因此，我們希望我們能在這方面看到一些重大進展。

And then taking a step back at a high level.

然後在高層次上退一步。

What you're really asking me is, what is our core view about?

你真正問我的是，我們的核心觀點是什麼？

And I think probably the best way to think about this is just through the lens of the numerator.

我認為思考這個問題的最好方法可能就是透過分子的角度。

Actually, what is our core view about, if you just for the sake of argument, assume modest growth in the normalized amount of denominator like actual need for capital organically, what will be the likely additional numerator that will be needed or not as a function of the environment.

實際上，我們的核心觀點是什麼，如果您只是為了論證，假設分母的標準化數量適度增長，例如有機資本的實際需求，那麼作為函數，可能需要或不需要的額外分子是多少環境的。

And the way we're increasingly thinking about that is just doing different scenario analysis of like flat numerator, five numerator of 10 numerator up 20 numerator.

我們越來越多思考這個問題的方式就是對扁平分子、5 個分子、10 個分子到 20 個分子進行不同的場景分析。

I guess there could be some versions of the world where the numerator is a little less.

我想世界上可能有某些版本的分子會少一點。

And then guessing about our central case and comparing our projected capital amount to that number to determine the excess.

然後猜測我們的中心案例，並將我們的預期資本金額與該數字進行比較，以確定超額部分。

As you point out at 15.7% and I think the actual quantum of the numerator is something like [$275 billion] to pretty much any reasonable lens, it's a ton of access, which is why we've concluded that it doesn't need to grow anymore.

正如你所指出的 15.7%，我認為對於幾乎任何合理的鏡頭來說，分子的實際量大約是 [2750 億美元]，這是大量的訪問，這就是為什麼我們得出結論，它不需要不再成長。

And just a follow up question, follow up to John's line of questioning as a placeholder.

只是一個後續問題，作為佔位符跟隨約翰的提問。

As we think about what you said, trying to arrest the growth of CET1 for now, should we just assume that of anything that you don't need for organic growth?

當我們思考你所說的，試圖暫時阻止 CET1 的成長時，我們是否應該假設你不需要有機成長的任何東西？

And your dividend obligations in terms of that 15.7% when we bought back by the company as we think about, I know you don't want to predict the buy back, but is that sort of just a placeholder for now as we think about what can return back to shareholders in the form of repurchase?

當我們考慮公司回購時，您的股利義務是 15.7%，我知道您不想預測回購，但這只是佔位符，因為我們考慮什麼能否以回購的形式回報股東？

Yeah, I mean, you've quoted our capital hierarchy.

是的，我的意思是，你引用了我們的資本等級制度。

And your conclusion flows naturally from my statement that we do want to arrest the growth of the excess.

你的結論自然是從我的聲明中得出的，即我們確實希望阻止過剩的增長。

But we are never going to tell the market what we're going to do.

但我們永遠不會告訴市場我們要做什麼。

I mean, you all know that everyone is out there modeling these things, trading against these things.

我的意思是，你們都知道每個人都在建模這些東西，並針對這些東西進行交易。

So steady, consistent buyers in the marketplace was so predictable, are making a mistake.

市場上如此穩定、一致的買家是如此可預測，但他們卻犯了一個錯誤。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

It seems like you guys have backed off the view that you're maturely over earning on net interest income.

你們似乎已經放棄了淨利息收入已經成熟超額的觀點。

And is this all because of the higher rate environment that's expected now, or is it also partly a different view on deposit pricing specifically on the consumer side, which I think you had assumed it would be price a bit more than we've seen?

這一切都是因為現在預期的利率環境較高，還是部分原因是消費者方面對存款定價的不同看法，我認為您認為存款定價會比我們看到的要高一點？

Yeah, it's a good question, Matt, I guess maybe let me try to frame that from a total different perspective.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，馬特，我想也許讓我試著從一個完全不同的角度來闡述這個問題。

So on the one hand, you're right, if you look at the NII guidance that we're giving you including the notion that, subject to the yield curve planning out with the current forwards, which as we know is the one thing that we know won't happen.

因此，一方面，如果您查看我們為您提供的 NII 指南，您是對的，其中包括這樣一個概念，即根據當前遠期的收益率曲線規劃，據我們所知，這是唯一一件事我們知道這不會發生。

But if you want to assume something, if you assume the forwards, we're sort of telling you that we might return to sequential growth in the back half of the year again, based on all of our current assumptions, all being equal.

但如果你想假設一些事情，如果你假設遠期，我們有點告訴你，基於我們目前所有的假設，所有假設都相同，我們可能會在今年下半年再次恢復連續成長。

And you could draw the conclusion that that means that, the over earning narrative is no longer applicable.

你可以得出這樣的結論：這意味著，超額收入的說法不再適用。

I think if you take a big step back by historical standards, the difference between the policy rate and the weighted average rate paid on consumer deposits remains quite elevated.

我認為，如果按照歷史標準退一步，政策利率與消費者存款加權平均利率之間的差異仍然相當大。

For a variety of reasons and subject to, the fact that in the end deposit pricing is always going to be a response to the competitive environment that we experience in the field.

由於各種原因並受制於事實，最終存款定價始終是對我們在該領域經歷的競爭環境的回應。

The current structure of the yield curve is such that for the time being anyway, when we do the math, that's what we see.

殖利率曲線的當前結構是這樣的，無論如何，當我們進行數學計算時，這就是我們所看到的。

Do we think that's truly, truly, truly sustainable through the cycle?

我們認為這在整個週期中是真正、真正、真正可持續的嗎？

Unclear, but I guess, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it for now, this is the outlook for the coming.

不清楚，但我想，當我們現在到達時，我們會跨過那座橋，這就是未來的前景。

We've gotten closer to normalized NII and normalized credit.

我們已經接近標準化國家資訊基礎設施和標準化信貸。

Yeah, it's worth noting that, NII ex-market is down year-on-year.

是的，值得注意的是，NII 前市場年減。

So there's some amount of normalization.

所以存在一定程度的標準化。

Okay.

好的。

And it's just separately a strategic question, there's been some reports about you further expanding the consumer banking business globally.

這只是一個單獨的策略問題，有一些報告說您將進一步擴大全球消費銀行業務。

And I guess I just want to, push on that where, we really haven't seen other banks do it in a successful way.

我想我只是想推動這一點，我們確實還沒有看到其他銀行以成功的方式做到這一點。

Obviously, your approach is kind of coming from a position of strength lead digitally.

顯然，你的方法有點來自數位化的優勢領先地位。

But I guess, I'm just wondering like, is it worth it, is there enough upside to justify maybe some of the increased regulatory and execution risks of doing the global consumer banking?

但我想，我只是想知道，這是否值得，是否有足夠的優勢來證明全球消費者銀行業務可能增加的一些監管和執行風險是合理的？

Yeah, I mean, I think you kind of answered your own question in the sense, like, we talked about this a lot when we first launched the initiative and I just think that the comparison to other players is not apt in the current moment.

是的，我的意思是，我認為你在某種意義上回答了你自己的問題，就像，當我們第一次啟動該計劃時，我們對此進行了很多討論，我只是認為目前與其他玩家進行比較並不合適。

And that's not to say that like we're special or anything.

這並不是說我們很特別或什麼。

It's just that the strategy is very different and it's a very different moment.

只是策略非常不同，而且是一個非常不同的時刻。

So it's a new initiative is obviously not risk free, but it's going pretty well, and you know, pointing out the obvious, if we didn't think it was worth it, we wouldn't be doing it, but we have obviously considered all of the risks and opportunities associated with the decision.

因此，這是一項新舉措，顯然並非沒有風險，但進展順利，而且你知道，指出顯而易見的事情，如果我們認為不值得，我們就不會這樣做，但我們顯然已經考慮過與該決策相關的所有風險和機會。

And that's it's one of our strategic initiatives and those get scrutinized quite aggressively, through all of our management processes.

這就是我們的策略性舉措之一，並且透過我們所有的管理流程對這些舉措進行了非常嚴格的審查。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Alright, just want to make sure you can hear me.

好吧，只是想確保你能聽到我的聲音。

So this has been a great call.

所以這是一個很棒的決定。

First congratulate -- First congratulations on a great quarter.

首先恭喜—首先恭喜一個偉大的季度。

It's been a great call with a lot of robot’s questions here, you're like, what else is there to ask?

這是一次很棒的通話，這裡有很多機器人問題，你會想，還有什麼想問的？

Here's my question.

這是我的問題。

As we think about the NII outlook and you highlighted the NIM pressure but loan, but basically balance is increasing here, right?

當我們考慮NII前景時，您強調了NIM壓力，但貸款，但基本上平衡在這裡增加，對嗎？

Maybe you could just speak to the -- could you help me understand the order of the drivers?

也許你可以和——你能幫我理解司機的順序嗎？

Is it QT going away deposits going up, punch it into securities?

QT是否會取消存款的上漲，並投入證券？

Is it loan growth inflecting?

貸款成長是否受到影響？

Is there any place in the franchise where you see loan growth opportunities for inflection this coming year?

您在特許經營中是否有任何地方看到明年貸款增長的機會出現拐點？

And then lastly, as I think about your comments around, you've got the green market share number one, you've got the yellow, you've got the red places maybe we can't see.

最後，當我思考你的評論時，你的綠色市場份額排名第一，你有黃色，你有紅色的地方，也許我們看不到。

Could you help us understand where those yellows and reds are, where they are?

你能幫助我們了解那些黃色和紅色在哪裡嗎？

Are they just scattered?

他們只是分散嗎？

Everybody's every single business has one or are there some that have more than others and therefore more opportunities?

每個人的每一項業務都有一個，或者是否有一些業務比其他業務擁有更多，因此有更多的機會？

And is it more balance sheet or fee generative?

它是更能產生資產負債表還是產生費用？

That's kind of what I'd like to just discuss if you have a minute?

如果您有時間的話，這就是我想討論的問題？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, let me take a crack at that too.

是的，讓我也來嘗試一下。

So long growth, I think, looking for areas where it might inflect the only thing I can think of frankly, that would be in that category, certainly in terms of being meaningful to the company's performance.

我認為，這麼長時間的成長，尋找可能會影響我坦率地唯一能想到的領域，那就是這個類別，當然是對公司業績有意義的方面。

Would be acquisitions because that's been relatively muted as a function of the M&A environment.

可能是收購，因為併購環境的影響相對較小。

And if that picks up, you could see more there, now that's, those aren't loans that we necessarily keep on the balance sheet for that long.

如果這種情況好轉，你可以看到更多，現在，這些貸款不一定是我們在資產負債表上保留那麼久的貸款。

So whether that shows up in fees or NII or whatever is a separate issue.

因此，這是否體現在費用或 NII 或其他方面是一個單獨的問題。

But as you can see, like on our presentation page for the NII Outlook, that card loan growth and revolve normalization has been a significant tail end.

但正如您所看到的，就像我們的 NII 展望演示頁面一樣，卡片貸款成長和循環正常化一直是重要的尾端。

And while that is also a driver of growth in 2025, again, based on our current guess about the future, it will be, it's decelerating a little bit rather than the opposite, still growing above trend, obviously, which is great and it's a sign of the strength of the franchise and the amount of engagement that we're getting from our card clients.

雖然這也是 2025 年成長的驅動力，但根據我們目前對未來的猜測，它會稍微減速，而不是相反，但顯然仍然高於趨勢增長，這很好，而且是這是特許經營實力以及我們從卡客戶那裡獲得的參與度的標誌。

But the big normalizations elements there are gone.

但重要的標準化元素已經消失了。

You know, well, the state of the mortgage market given rates, rates are also a headwind in some other pockets, like our multifamily lending business at the margin.

你知道，考慮到抵押貸款市場的利率狀況，利率對其他一些領域來說也是一個阻力，例如我們的多戶家庭貸款業務。

So yeah, I think a higher growth environment a little bit more optimism.

所以，是的，我認為更高的成長環境會更樂觀。

Could you see a bit no loan growth in business banking?

您是否認為商業銀行業務的貸款成長沒有成長？

Could you see a bit more growth in C&I at the margin?

您能否看到工商業的邊際成長增加？

Yes.

是的。

But I think the place where you might see inflection is more on the areas that are deal driven, I would say.

但我認為，你可能會看到變化的地方更多是在交易驅動的領域。

So we'll see what happens there.

所以我們會看看那裡會發生什麼。

And in terms of the reds and the ambers under the greens, I think, you know them, right?

至於綠色下的紅色和琥珀色，我想，你知道它們，對嗎？

And they're aligned with our big, long standing investment strategies.

它們與我們長期的大型投資策略一致。

The biggest single one arguably is that in the -- what you might call the affluent section of the wealth management space, we are significantly under penetrated relative to the number of households that we bank in the country and our capabilities and our brand and what we think we bring to the table.

最大的一個問題可以說是，在財富管理領域的富裕部分，相對於我們在該國開設銀行帳戶的家庭數量、我們的能力、我們的品牌以及我們的業務而言，我們的滲透率明顯不足。我們認為我們可以把它帶到談判桌上。

So that's why we're pushing so hard on that front because I think we can get more share there and it completes the franchise very nicely.

這就是為什麼我們在這方面如此努力，因為我認為我們可以在那裡獲得更多份額，並且它很好地完善了特許經營權。

There are a bunch of examples elsewhere, but we talk a lot about going down inside the markets, business inside investment banking, and finding the places where even where at the aggregate global sector level, we look great in any given region, in any given subsector we can do better.

其他地方有很多例子，但我們談論了很多關於市場內部、投資銀行內部的業務，以及找到即使在全球行業總體水平上，我們在任何特定地區、任何特定領域看起來都很棒的地方。做得更好。

And as I mentioned, we continue to look at that, as aggressively as ever.

正如我所提到的，我們將一如既往地積極關注這個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

易卜拉欣‧普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala)，美國銀行美林公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I guess just two questions.

我想只有兩個問題。

What in terms of areas of vulnerability?

脆弱性方面如何？

So I heard you, Jeremy on the lending side, but lots of cross currents, like if we anchor to the fact that you have a conversation that's taking place, you'll take office with a focus on domestic CapEx.

所以我聽到了你的聲音，傑里米，在貸款方面，但有很多相反的觀點，比如如果我們堅持這樣一個事實，即你正在進行一場對話，你將在上任時重點關注國內資本支出。

Even if we don't get any rates cuts when you look through your customer base, where do you see areas of vulnerability, be it because of tariffs, be it because of just lack of any additional relief from the Fed?

即使我們沒有得到任何降息，當你審視你的客戶群時，你會在哪裡看到脆弱的領域，無論是因為關稅，還是因為聯準會缺乏任何額外的救濟？

Yeah, I would love to hear just from a credit quality perspective what no rate cuts might mean?

是的，我很想聽聽從信用品質的角度來看，不降息可能代表什麼？

I see what your question is that took me a second.

我明白你的問題是什麼，讓我花了一秒鐘。

Yeah, I mean, look wholesale credit is pretty hard to predict.

是的，我的意思是，看起來批發信貸很難預測。

It tends to be very idiosyncratic.

它往往非常獨特。

You obviously know that we were coming out of a 10 plus year period of an exceptionally low charge off.

您顯然知道，我們正在擺脫長達 10 多年的極低沖銷期。

And so at some point that has to normalize to a slightly more reasonable level to move it to Jamie's comments earlier about how some things are still not fully normalized and arguably wholesale credit be one of those.

因此，在某種程度上，必須正常化到稍微更合理的水平，才能將其轉移到傑米早些時候的評論，即有些事情仍然沒有完全正常化，可以說批發信貸就是其中之一。

We do run extensive trust us on the sensitivities to the portfolio of the portfolio to rate shock.

我們確實廣泛信任我們的投資組合對利率衝擊的敏感度。

A lot of what we do from an underwriting perspective is designed to protect us from that frankly.

坦白說，我們從承保的角度所做的很多事情都是為了保護我們免受這種情況的影響。

So you can rest assured that we're running the relevant analysis, but I'm not inclined to go into detail on any given sector or whatever.

因此，您可以放心，我們正在進行相關分析，但我不打算詳細介紹任何特定部門或其他方面。

James, you want to add anything?

詹姆斯，你想補充什麼嗎？

I just find it the biggest driver of credit has been and always will be unemployment that both on the consumer side and it’s into the corporate side, it leads into mortgages, subprime, credit card.

我只是發現信貸的最大驅動力一直是而且永遠是失業，無論是在消費者方面還是在企業方面，它都會導致抵押貸款、次級抵押貸款和信用卡。

So really, it's your four counts of unemployment, you have to make your own, which will determine that over time.

所以實際上，這是你的四項失業罪名，你必須自己制定，隨著時間的推移，這將決定這一點。

And so and the second thing you said vulnerabilities, it's unemployment, but the worst case would be sacculation higher rates with higher unemployment will drive higher credit losses literally across the Board.

所以，你所說的第二件事是脆弱性，那就是失業，但最糟糕的情況是，利率上升和失業率上升將導致全面的信貸損失上升。

I'm not, -- we're not predicting that you just ask for the vulnerabilities that the vulnerabilities.

我不是，我們並不是預測您只是詢問漏洞。

And I guess thanks for that, just sticking with that as far as QT is concerned when you talk to experts, like no one knows what the right level for the Fed to end is.

我想感謝這一點，當你與專家交談時，只要堅持就 QT 而言，就像沒有人知道聯準會結束的正確水平是多少一樣。

I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts there on how when the fed should end the pressure on the system and what it may imply for deposit growth?

我只是想知道您對聯準會何時應如何結束對系統的壓力以及這對存款成長可能意味著什麼有什麼想法？

Yeah, I mean, I think the conventional wisdom on QT and I'm not pretending to add to the conventional wisdom one way or the other is that the tapering should sort of complete and therefore we might see an end sometime in the middle of the year.

是的，我的意思是，我認為關於 QT 的傳統觀點是，逐漸減少應該完成，因此我們可能會在中間的某個時候看到結束，我並不是假裝以某種方式添加傳統觀點。

Of course, they may change that, but that seems to be the current market consensus.

當然，他們可能會改變這一點，但這似乎是目前的市場共識。

And when we sort of take a step back and look at the H8 data and our kind of flow of funds models and that type of stuff, when you look at the way our peers behaving evolution UT expectations for, economy wide loan growth, etcetera.

當我們退後一步，看看 H8 數據和我們的資金流動模型以及類似的東西時，當你看到我們的同行的行為方式演變時，我們對整個經濟貸款增長的預期等等。

And what the impact of that might be on the growth of system wide deposits.

這可能會對全系統存款的成長產生什麼影響。

It's kind of consistent with the story that we're talking about our sort of the background growth in our NII outlook, plus or minus what happens with the policy rate.

這與我們談論的 NII 前景中的背景成長（加上或減去政策利率的變化）的故事是一致的。

And stabilizing and growing deposit balances for the second half of the year.

下半年存款餘額穩定成長。

No, thank you.

不，謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, Jeremy.

嗨，傑里米。

Hi, Jamie.

嗨，傑米。

You mentioned in your comments about the overall [fermite] deposits have stabilized and in the second half, you could see some growth and you already, I think you said you started to see maybe some of that in the consumer checking deposits.

您在評論中提到，總體[費米特]存款已經穩定，在下半年，您可能會看到一些增長，我想您說過您可能開始在消費者支票存款中看到一些增長。

We noticed in the industry data from the regulators household checking deposits pre pandemic for the industry.

我們在產業數據中註意到，監管部門在疫情前對產業進行家庭支票存款。

We were running about $1 trillion.

我們運行了大約 1 兆美元。

Now, they have remained elevated post pandemic at $4 trillion.

現在，疫情結束後這一數字仍維持在 4 兆美元的高點。

Can you base on what you're seeing in your customer base.

你能根據你在客戶群中看到的情況來判斷嗎？

What can you attribute the strain to in this, consumer checking account deposits?

您可以將消費者支票帳戶存款的壓力歸因於什麼？

That's fascinating, Gerard.

這太有趣了，傑拉德。

I'll have to take a look at that data.

我得看看這些數據。

I don't actually recognize those numbers, but I can speak for ourselves, which is that, when we look at the encouraging growth that we see in our checking franchise, it's a couple of things.

我實際上並不認識這些數字，但我可以為自己說話，那就是，當我們看到我們在支票業務中看到的令人鼓舞的增長時，有幾件事。

So of course, there was some access and there was some yield seeking behavior.

因此，當然，存在一些訪問權限，並且存在一些尋求收益的行為。

So you did see people moving money out of checking into higher yielding alternatives over the course of the last couple of years in the rate cycle.

因此，在過去幾年的利率週期中，您確實看到人們將資金從支票轉向更高收益的替代品。

It feels to us as if we're in the final innings of that.

我們感覺好像我們已經進入了最後一局。

We're just not seeing nearly as much yield seeking pressure as we had seen.

我們只是沒有看到像我們所看到的那樣大的尋求收益的壓力。

In the meantime, as you well know, we are aggressively engaging with clients and acquiring a lot of new clients and deepening and a lot of different markets as part of our branch expansion strategy and the deepening in all of those markets.

同時，正如您所知，我們正在積極與客戶接觸，獲得大量新客戶，並深化許多不同的市場，作為我們分支機構擴張策略和所有這些市場深化的一部分。

So the combination of the tail end of the yield seeking flows and excellent client engagement and success in the sort of organic build out of that franchise is starting to show up in checking account growth, which we see as a very healthy indicator for the franchise.

因此，追求收益流的尾部、出色的客戶參與度以及該特許經營權有機構建的成功相結合，開始在支票帳戶增長中顯現出來，我們認為這是該特許經營權的一個非常健康的指標。

Very good.

非常好。

And then as a follow up circling back about the capital levels, you guys have been very clear about where you want them to be.

然後，作為關於資本水準的後續行動，你們非常清楚自己希望它們達到什麼水準。

Can you share what the pros and cons from JP Morgan's perspective?

您能從摩根大通的角度分享一下優點和缺點嗎？

Not so much from an investor, but we understand, of course, you can do a share repurchase.

不是來自投資者，但我們理解，當然，你可以進行股票回購。

Obviously, you can do non-depository acquisitions with the excess capital.

顯然，您可以用多餘的資本進​​行非存款收購。

But what are the pros and cons of a special dividend to reduce that excess capital?

但是，透過特別股息來減少多餘資本的利弊是什麼？

If you continue with these incredible profitability levels of 20% return on changeable common equity, you're growing your income and capital very nicely every year.

如果您繼續保持可變普通股回報率 20% 的令人難以置信的盈利水平，您的收入和資本每年都會大幅增長。

But one of those pros and cons again from JP Morgan's perspective.

但從摩根大通的角度來看，這又是利弊之一。

Yeah.

是的。

So we made some public comments on this at a conference sometime back.

因此，我們在不久前的一次會議上對此發表了一些公開評論。

So he'll, -- he wants to go.

所以他會——他想去。

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

So Jeremy, go ahead. -- (inaudible) Seriously.

所以傑里米，繼續吧。 ——（聽不清楚）說真的。

I was just going to say we're not going to do one.

我只是想說我們不會做一件事。

We have looked at it, if you all have any great insights for us, let us know, but most people don't want, it doesn't enhance shareholder value.

我們已經研究過了，如果你們對我們有什麼好的見解，請告訴我們，但大多數人不希望這樣做，這不會提高股東價值。

And I've never thought of having cash in your pocket is a bad thing.

我從來不認為口袋裡有現金是一件壞事。

I think it's a huge mistake to look at like, but you have to quote deploy capital.

我認為這樣看是一個巨大的錯誤，但你必須引用部署資本。

So we want to be very, very patient but special dividends.

因此，我們希望非常非常有耐心，但也希望獲得特別紅利。

If you look at the history, special, they really basically don't work.

如果你看看歷史，特別是，它們真的基本上不起作用。

But if anyone has a different opinion, we're always interested.

但如果有人有不同的意見，我們總是感興趣。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Thank you, gentlemen.

謝謝你們，先生們。

Thanks Gerard.

謝謝杰拉德。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we have no further questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

See you next quarter.

下季見。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。

You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.

此時您可以斷開連線並好好休息一天。