摩根大通 (JPM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's third quarter 2024 earnings call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We will now go live to the presentation. The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website.

早安，女士們先生們。 歡迎參加摩根大通 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）我們現在將進行演示。 該簡報可在摩根大通的網站上查看。

Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward looking statements, please standby. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

有關前瞻性陳述的內容請參閱後面的免責聲明，敬請期待。 現在，我想把電話轉給摩根大通董事長兼執行長傑米戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）；和財務長傑里米·巴納姆。 巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Starting on page 1, before reported net income of $12.9 billion, EPS of $4.37 and revenue of $43.3 billion with an ROCTCE of 19%. Touching on a couple of highlights. In CCB, we ranked number one in retail deposit share from the fourth straight year.

謝謝大家，早安。 從第一頁開始，先前報告的淨利潤為 129 億美元，每股收益為 4.37 美元，收入為 433 億美元，ROCTCE 為 19%。 談到幾個亮點。 建行零售存款佔比連續第四年排名第一。

In CIB, IV. views and markets revenue or normally up year on year, reflecting strength across the franchise. In AWM, we had record quarterly revenues and record long-term flows. Now turning to Page 2 for the frontline results.

在 CIB，IV。觀點和市場收入通常同比增長，反映了整個特許經營權的實力。 在 AWM 中，我們的季度營收和長期流量均創歷史新高。 現在翻到第 2 頁查看第一線結果。

The firm reported revenue of $43.3 billion, up $2.6 billion or 6% year on year. And IIX markets was up $274 million or 1%, driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvestment, higher revolving balances in card and higher wholesale deposit balances, predominantly offset by lower deposit balances. And then compression.

該公司報告營收為 433 億美元，年增 26 億美元，即 6%。 IIX 市場成長了 2.74 億美元，即 1%，主要受到資產負債表組合和證券再投資、信用卡循環餘額增加和批發存款餘額增加的影響，但主要被存款餘額減少所抵消。 然後壓縮。

And IRX markets was up $1.8 billion or 17%. Excluding the prior year's net investment securities losses, it was up 10% on higher asset management and investment banking fees and markets. Revenue was up $535 million or 8% year on year.

IRX 市場上漲 18 億美元，成長 17%。 不包括上一年的淨投資證券損失，由於資產管理和投資銀行費用和市場的增加，該數字增長了 10%。 營收年增 5.35 億美元，即 8%。

Expenses of $22.6 billion were up $808 million or 4% year on year, driven by compensation, including revenue-related compensation and growth in employees, partially offset by lower legal expense and credit costs were $3.1 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.1 billion and in that reserve of $1 billion, which included $882 million in consumer, primarily in card and $144 million in wholesale.

費用為226 億美元，年增8.08 億美元，即4%，這主要得益於薪酬（包括與收入相關的薪酬和員工人數的增長），部分被法律費用和信貸成本下降所抵消，費用為31億美元，反映出淨沖銷21 億美元10 億美元的儲備金包括 8.82 億美元的消費支出（主要是銀行卡）和 1.44 億美元的批發支出。

Net charge-offs were up $590 million one year, predominantly driven by car. On the balance sheet and capital on Page 3. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15.3%, flat versus the prior quarter as net income and OCI gains were offset by capital distributions and higher RWA.

淨沖銷一年增加了 5.9 億美元，主要由汽車驅動。 關於第 3 頁的資產負債表和資本。

This quarter's RWA reflects higher lending activity as well as higher our client activity and market moves on the trading side. We added $6 billion of net common share repurchases this quarter, which in part reflects the deployment of the proceeds from the share from the sale of Visa shares as we have previously mentioned.

本季的 RWA 反映了較高的貸款活動以及較高的客戶活動和交易方面的市場趨勢。 本季我們增加了 60 億美元的淨普通股回購，這在一定程度上反映了我們先前提到的出售 Visa 股票所得收益的部署。

Now let's go to our businesses, starting with CCB on Page 4. CCB reported net income of $4 billion on revenue of $17.8 billion, which was down 3% year on year. In Banking and Wealth Management revenue was down 11% year on year, reflecting deposit margin compression and lower deposits, partially offset by growth in wealth management revenue.

現在讓我們來看看我們的業務，從第4頁的建行開始。 銀行及理財收入年減 11%，反映存款保證金壓縮和存款減少，但部分被理財收入成長所抵銷。

Average deposits were down 8% year-on-year and 2% sequentially. We are seeing a slowdown in customer yield seeking activity, including MCD volumes and expect deposits to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year.

平均存款年減 8%，季減 2%。 我們發現客戶尋求收益的活動（包括 MCD 交易量）有所放緩，並預計今年剩餘時間存款將相對持平。

Client investment assets were up 21. We continue to see strong referrals of new wealth management clients from our branch network. In our lending revenue was up 3% year-on-year, driven by higher NI, partially offset by lower servicing and production revenue.

客戶投資資產成長 21。 在NI較高的推動下，我們的貸款收入年增了3%，但部分被服務和生產收入的下降所抵消。

Turning to card services and auto. Revenue was up 11% year on year, driven by higher card NI on higher revolving balances. Card outstandings were up 11% of the strong account acquisition and the continued normalization of the revolver and an auto originations were $10 billion, down 2% on the maintaining strong margins and high quality credit.

轉向卡服務和汽車。 營收年增 11%，主要得益於較高的循環餘額帶來的信用卡 NI 增加。 由於強勁的帳戶收購以及左輪手槍和汽車發源的持續正常化，信用卡未償餘額增長了 11%，為 100 億美元，由於保持強勁的利潤和高品質的信用，信用卡餘額下降了 2%。

Expenses of $9.6 billion were up 5% year on year, predominantly driven by higher field and technology compensation as well as growth in market. In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.8 billion, driven by covered and reflected net charge-offs of $1.9 billion of $520 million year on year.

費用為 96 億美元，年增 5%，這主要是由更高的現場和技術補償以及市場成長所推動的。 就本季的信貸表現而言，信貸成本為 28 億美元，主要由覆蓋和反映的淨沖銷 19 億美元（年比 5.2 億美元）推動。

And in that reserve build of $876 million, predominantly from higher revolving balances. Nice the commercial and investment bank on page 5. The CSB reported net income of $5.7 billion of revenue of $17 billion. Ib fees were up 31% year on year, and we ranked number one with year to date wallet share of 9.1% and advisory fees were up 10%, benefiting from the closing of a few large deals.

其中 8.76 億美元的儲備金主要來自較高的循環餘額。 Nice 是商業和投資銀行，第 5 頁。 Ib 費用年增 31%，我們以年初至今的錢包份額 9.1% 排名第一，諮詢費增長 10%，受益於幾筆大型交易的完成。

Generating fees were up meaningfully, moved that up 56% and equity of 26%, primarily driven by favorable market conditions. In light of the positive momentum throughout the year, we're optimistic about our pipeline for the M&A, regulatory environment and geopolitical situation or continued sources of uncertainty.

發電費顯著上漲，成長了 56%，權益成長了 26%，這主要是受到有利的市場條件的推動。 鑑於全年的積極勢頭，我們對併購管道、監管環境和地緣政治局勢或持續的不確定性來源持樂觀態度。

Payments revenue was $4.4 billion, up 4% year on year, driven by fee growth and higher deposit balances, largely offsetting market. Total revenue was $7.2 billion, up 8% year on year. Fixed income was flat, reflecting outperformance in currencies in emerging markets and lower revenue in rates.

受費用成長和存款餘額增加的推動，支付收入為 44 億美元，年增 4%，很大程度上抵消了市場影響。 總收入為72億美元，較去年同期成長8%。 固定收益持平，反映出新興市場貨幣表現優異以及利率收入下降。

Equities was up 27%, reflecting strong performance across regions, largely driven by a supportive trading environment in the US and increased late-quarter activity in Asia. Security services revenue was $1.3 billion, up 9% year on year, largely driven by fee growth on a higher market levels and volumes.

股市上漲 27%，反映出各地區表現強勁，這主要是受到美國有利的交易環境和亞洲季度末活動增加的推動。 安全服務收入為 13 億美元，年增 9%，主要受到市場水平和交付量提高的費用成長所推動。

Expenses of $8.8 billion were down 1% year on year, with lower legal expense, predominantly offset by higher revenue-related compensation and growth in employees is as well as higher technology spend. Average banking and payments loans were down 2% year on year and down 1% sequentially.

費用為 88 億美元，年減 1%，其中法律費用減少，但主要被與收入相關的薪酬增加、員工成長以及技術支出增加所抵消。 平均銀行和支付貸款年減 2%，較上季下降 1%。

The middle market and large corporate client segments. We continue to see softness in both new loan demand and revolver utilization in part to the clients, access to receptive capital markets and multifamily.

中型市場和大型企業客戶群。 我們繼續看到新貸款需求和循環利用部分客戶、進入接受資本市場和多戶家庭的機會都疲軟。

While we are seeing encouraging signs in loan originations as long-term rates fall, we expect overall growth to remain muted in the U.S. near term as originations are offset by payoff activity. Average client deposits were up 7% year on year and 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth from large corporates in payments and Securities Services.

雖然隨著長期利率下降，我們看到貸款發放出現了令人鼓舞的跡象，但我們預計美國短期內整體成長將保持溫和，因為貸款發放被還款活動所抵消。 平均客戶存款年增 7%，季增 3%，主要受到支付和證券服務領域大型企業成長的推動。

Finally, credit costs were $360 million, driven by higher net lending activity, including in markets and downgrades, partially offset by improved macro economic variables. Then to complete our lines of business AWM on page 6, Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $1.4 billion was pretax margin of 33%.

最後，信貸成本為 3.6 億美元，這是由淨貸款活動增加（包括市場和評級下調）所推動的，但部分被宏觀經濟變數改善所抵消。 然後，為了完成第 6 頁的 AWM 業務線，資產與財富管理報告淨利潤為 14 億美元，稅前利潤率為 33%。

For the quarter, revenue of $5.4 billion was up 9% year-on-year, driven by growth in management fees on higher average mark asset levels and strong net inflows, investment valuation gains compared to losses in the prior year and higher brokerage activity, partially offset by deposit margin.

本季營收為 54 億美元，年增 9%，這是由於平均資產水平較高、淨流入強勁、投資估值較上年虧損有所增長以及經紀活動增加導致管理費增長，部分被存款保證金抵消。

Compression expenses of $3.6 billion were up 16% year on year, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including revenue related compensation and continued as well as higher distribution fees and legal expense.

壓縮費用為 36 億美元，年增 16%，主要是由於薪酬上漲，包括與收入相關的薪酬以及持續較高的分銷費用和法律費用。

For the quarter, long-term net inflows were $72 billion, led by fixed income and equities and then liquidity. We saw net inflows of $34 billion, AUM of $3.9 trillion in client assets of $5.7 trillion, both up 23%, driven by higher market levels and continued net inflows.

本季長期淨流入為 720 億美元，其中固定收益和股票為主，然後是流動性。 在市場水準較高且持續淨流入的推動下，淨流入達 340 億美元，管理資產達 3.9 兆美元，客戶資產達 5.7 兆美元，均成長 23%。

And finally, loans were up 2% quarter on quarter and deposits were up 4% quarter on quarter. Turning to corporate on page 7, Corporate reported net income of $1.8 billion. Revenue was everything $1 billion, up $1.5 billion year on year, and I was $2.9 billion, up $932 million year on year, predominantly driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvest investment, including from prior quarters and I are was a net gain of $155 million compared with a net loss of $425 million in the prior year, predominantly driven by lower net investment securities losses this quarter.

最後，貸款較上季成長 2%，存款較上季成長 4%。 轉向第 7 頁的企業，企業報告淨利潤為 18 億美元。 營收為10 億美元，年增15 億美元，而我的營收為29 億美元，年增9.32 億美元，主要受到資產負債表組合和證券再投資投資（包括前幾季的影響）的影響，我是淨收入與上一年淨虧損 4.25 億美元相比，淨虧損 1.55 億美元，主要是因為本季投資證券淨虧損減少。

Expenses of $589 million were down $107 million year on year. To finish up, let's turn to the outlook on Page 8. We now expect 2024 NIIX markets to be approximately $91.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $92.5 billion. Our outlook for adjusted expense is now about $91.5 billion.

費用為 5.89 億美元，年減 1.07 億美元。 最後，讓我們轉向第 8 頁的展望。 我們目前調整後費用的預期約為 915 億美元。

And given where we are in the year, we included on the page the implied for fourth quarter guidance for NII and adjusted expense. And note that the NII numbers imply about $800 million of markets and I are in the fourth quarter.

考慮到我們今年的情況，我們在頁面上包含了第四季度 NII 的隱含指導和調整後的費用。 請注意，NII 數字意味著大約 8 億美元的市場，而我現在的數據是第四季。

On credit continue to expect the 2024 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4%. So to wrap up, we're pleased with look ahead to the next few quarters, we expect results will be somewhat challenged as normalization continues, but we remain upbeat and focused on executing in order to continue delivering excellent returns through the cycle.

信用卡方面，繼續預期 2024 年信用卡淨沖銷率約為 3.4%。 總而言之，我們對未來幾季的展望感到滿意，我們預計隨著正常化的繼續，結果將受到一些挑戰，但我們仍然樂觀並專注於執行，以便在整個週期中繼續提供出色的回報。

And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們打開問答熱線。

Thank you. Please standby. Our first question will come from the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities. You may proceed.

謝謝。 請等待。 我們的第一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。 您可以繼續。

Hey good morning. So Jeremy, you highlighted some full year NII guidance implies a sizable drop in Q4 and IX market, it's about 6%. So can you just maybe discuss what are the largest drivers of the sequential decline, including any initial thoughts on deposit behavior at pricing since the 50 basis point cut?

嘿早安。 Jeremy，您強調了一些全年 NII 指引意味著第四季度和 IX 市場大幅下降，約 6%。 那麼，您能否討論一下連續下降的最大驅動因素是什麼，包括自降息 50 個基點以來對存款定價行為的初步想法？

And since it's related, I'll just throw out my follow-up question. I realize the forward curve is moving around a lot, but since Dan brought it up a month ago, can you frame how you're thinking about the NII trajectory for '25? Thanks.

既然它是相關的，我就拋出我的後續問題。 我意識到遠期曲線變動很大，但自從 Dan 一個月前提出以來，您能否闡述一下您對 25 年 NII 軌蹟的看法？謝謝。

Yes, sure. Jen alternative to have answered both questions together. The Best Buy and Build it yourself. So as we sit here today, um, you know, the biggest single driver is the sequential declines is in fact that we're expecting is in fact the yield curve on.

是的，當然。 Jen 可以選擇一起回答這兩個問題。 百思買並自己建造。 因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，嗯，你知道，最大的單一驅動因素是連續下跌，事實上我們預期實際上是殖利率曲線。

So that yield curve has changed a little bit since on diabetes comments at the conference earlier in the quarter. But I thought that significantly, um, in terms of deposit balances, which is obviously another important factor here in light of some of the of the votes regarding the cutting cycle spread feels to us like right now.

因此，自本季早些時候會議上對糖尿病的評論以來，殖利率曲線發生了一些變化。 但我認為，就存款餘額而言，這顯然是另一個重要因素，鑑於我們現在對有關削減週期利差的一些投票的感覺，這顯然是另一個重要因素。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, for consumer we pretty much in the trough right now as we speak, some of when do you look at yield seeking behavior that has come down quite a bit. So that all else equal. And then if you look at checking account balances, those have been pretty stable for some time, which we see as an indication that consumers are kind of done spending another comp cash buffers.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，對於消費者來說，我們現在幾乎處於低谷，你什麼時候會看到尋求收益的行為已經大幅下降。 這樣其他一切都平等。 然後，如果你查看帳戶餘額，你會發現這些餘額在一段時間內一直相當穩定，我們認為這表明消費者不再花費另一個現金緩衝。

So that's kind of supportive for more on consumer deposit balances. And in that context, the other relevant point is the CDMAX. where you know, with the rate cuts coming, we expect the CD balances to price down with pretty high beta and probably the CDMAX. actually peaking around now.

因此，這對消費者存款餘額的增加有一定的支持。 在這種情況下，另一個相關點是 CDMAX。你知道，隨著降息的到來，我們預計 CD 餘額的價格會隨著相當高的貝塔值（可能還有 CDMAX）而下降。實際上現在已經達到頂峰了。

And as you move to wholesale, so we've actually already been seeing over the growth there. And when you combine that with the sort of increasing view that I believe on the market have, but it's likely that the end of Q2 will be announced sometime soon.

當你轉向批發時，我們實際上已經看到了那裡的成長。 當你將其與我認為市場上日益增長的觀點結合起來時，第二季結束的時間很可能很快就會宣布。

That's also a little bit supportive for on deposit balances. So maybe I'll provide us any also asked me a little bit about next year or so. I guess one thing to say, right is that we did have a sequential increase in NII this quarter.

這也對存款餘額有一點支持。 所以也許我會向我們提供一些關於明年左右的問題。 我想有一點要說的是，本季我們的 NII 確實出現了環比成長。

And as you may recall at Investor Day, I said there was some chance that we would see sequential increases followed by sequential declines in that people should avoid kind of driving that conclusion that we'd hit the trough when that happens.

正如您可能還記得在投資者日上，我說過我們有可能會看到先是連續上漲，然後是連續下跌，因為人們應該避免得出這樣的結論：當這種情況發生時，我們將觸底。

So that's essentially exactly what we're seeing now, but from where we sit now given the yield curve, so the yield curve materializes, obviously, we do see a pretty clear picture of sequential declines at NIX markets. For the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances card revolve growth and other factors can we can will return us to sequential growth, obviously.

因此，這基本上正是我們現在所看到的，但從我們現在所處的位置來看，考慮到殖利率曲線，因此殖利率曲線具體化了，顯然，我們確實看到了NIX 市場連續下跌的清晰畫面。 因為谷底可能會在明年年中的某個時候發生，屆時餘額卡循環增長和其他因素的結合我們可以使我們恢復連續增長，顯然。

For guessing it's pretty far out in the future, and we'll give you formal guidance all the stuff next quarter. But I think that gives you a bit of a framework to work with.

猜測這是相當遙遠的未來，我們將在下個季度為您提供所有內容的正式指導。 但我認為這為您提供了一些可以使用的框架。

All right. Thanks a lot.

好的。 多謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you. Next we'll go to the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

謝謝。 接下來我們將討論 Steven Chubak 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。 您可以繼續。

Hi, good morning. five calories. So I did want to ask on expenses just in light of some of the comments that by Daniel had made recently, just noting that consensus expense forecast for next year looked a little bit too. I believe at the time it was just below $94 billion.

嗨，早安。 五卡路里。 因此，我確實想根據丹尼爾最近發表的一些評論來詢問費用，只是注意到明年的共識費用預測看起來也有點過分。 我相信當時這個數字略低於 940 億美元。

If we adjust for the one-timers this year, that would suggest the core expense base that's just below $90 billion, a pretty healthy step-up in expenses. I know you've always had a strong commitment to disciplined around investment.

如果我們對今年的一次性支出進行調整，則表明核心支出基礎略低於 900 億美元，這是一個相當健康的支出成長。 我知道您一直堅定地致力於遵守投資紀律。

Just wanted to better understand where those incremental dollars are being deployed and just which investments are being archives in particular, looking out to next year?

只是想更了解這些增量資金被部署在哪裡，特別是哪些投資正在歸檔，展望明年？

So good question. And I agree with your numbers. I agree with the way of normalized this year for the one time type of significant items and also where the consensus was when our Daniel latest comments of lower at it.

好問題。 我同意你的數字。 我同意今年一次性重要項目的標準化方式，也同意我們丹尼爾最新評論較低時達成的共識。

I would also just remind you on the NI comments at the time, the consensus for this year was 91.5 and for next year it was 90. So that was implying at the time of sequential decline of 1.5. And it was because we thought that decline wasn't big enough that we made commentary we made are having to expand more on that, but any way to expenses on?

我還要提醒大家，當時 NI 的評論是，今年的共識是 91.5，明年的共識是 90。 正是因為我們認為下降幅度不夠大，所以我們發表了評論，我們必須進一步擴大這一點，但有什麼辦法可以減少開支嗎？

Yes. So if you saw for the sake of argument with a base of 90, obviously, inflation is normalizing. And obviously, we're always trying to generate efficiencies to offset inflation. But that having been said issue some 3% for the sake of argument on that base. That's a few billion dollars right out of the gates that we're working it got. So that's one thing.

是的。 因此，如果您以 90 為基數進行論證，那麼顯然通膨正在正常化。 顯然，我們一直在努力提高效率來抵消通貨膨脹。 但話雖如此，為了以此為基礎進行爭論，發行了約 3%。 這是我們正在努力獲得的數十億美元。 所以這是一回事。

The other thing is that we have content to execute our growth strategies this year. So there's a not insignificant amount of annualization and you can't quite see that in the fourth quarter numbers because of the seasonality of incentive comp.

另一件事是我們今年有能力執行我們的成長策略。 因此，年化金額並不小，而且由於激勵補償的季節性，您在第四季度的數字中無法完全看到這一點。

But if you were to strip that out, you would see probably some sequential increases. And so the point that mineralization as an additional headwind on the other thing that's worth noting is that we do expect fees next year.

但如果你把它去掉，你可能會看到一些連續的成長。 因此，礦化作為另一件值得注意的事情的額外阻力是，我們確實預計明年會產生費用。

And so all else being equal, that would come with the higher expense loading. So when you assemble those, that goes a long way to explain why sort of that consensus number that slightly below 94 just seemed like.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這將帶來更高的費用負擔。 因此，當你將這些數據匯總起來時，就可以很好地解釋為什麼共識數字略低於 94。

In terms of priorities on investments, really nothing has changed like the strategy hasn't changed on the strategy hasn't changed and the plans haven't changed, and we're just kind of executing with the same long-term perspective that we've always thought.

就投資優先事項而言，實際上沒有任何變化，就像戰略沒有改變一樣，戰略沒有改變，計劃也沒有改變，我們只是以與我們相同的長期視角來執行。

I would note that relative to I I obviously they were in the third quarter are now not the fourth quarter. And you know, in the old days we didn't used to give you the guidance until Investor Day in late February. So we will give you pro forma expense guidance next quarter or for both fault for expenses and NII next quarter.

我要指出的是，相對於我來說，顯然他們是在第三季度，現在不是第四季。 您知道，過去我們直到二月底的投資者日才會向您提供指導。 因此，我們將在下個季度為您提供預計費用指導，或針對下個季度的費用和 NII 錯誤提供指導。

But especially on expenses, we are in the middle of the budget cycle right now. So we probably have a little less visibility there than we do at the margin on NII.

但特別是在支出方面，我們現在正處於預算週期的中間。 因此，我們在這方面的能見度可能比我們在 NII 邊緣的能見度低。

And I think you just give you a detailed review of expenses will be to look for you recall, expenses vary well from a core investments. You actually go back to Investor Day. You'll see the rating private bankers in asset management.

而且我認為你只是給你一個詳細的費用審查將是為了讓你回憶一下，費用與核心投資有很大不同。你實際上回到了投資者日。 您會看到私人銀行家在資產管理方面的評級。

We were in ETF Finance and Wealth Management, great private bankers and international private banking for growing Chase Wealth Management. We've added some branches are, of course, in various states of America. There are huge opportunities.

我們在 ETF 金融和財富管理領域工作，是偉大的私人銀行家和國際私人銀行業務，致力於發展大通財富管理。 當然，我們在美國的各州都增加了一些分支機構。 這裡有巨大的機會。

The innovation economy that takes bankers and both both certain technologies definitely good for ERGO goes to gain share at everything we do, we get good returns on it. So I look at the these are opportunities for a season that spaces that we have to go by actually putting yourself London.

銀行家和這兩種特定技術對安格來說絕對有利的創新經濟將在我們所做的一切事情中獲得份額，我們從中獲得了良好的回報。 所以我認為這些都是這個賽季的機會，我們必須把自己置身於倫敦。

We do and we show you kind of extensively the cost and productivity. But there's things that also BRL is going to go up a little bit. And I wouldn't put those categories is going to generate great stuff over time.

我們確實這樣做了，並且我們向您展示了廣泛的成本和生產力。 但有些東西巴西雷亞爾也會略有上漲。 我不會說隨著時間的推移這些類別會產生很棒的東西。

No, thank you both for the color. Just for a quick follow-up for me on just drilling down into NII, I know it appears you redeployed a fair amount of cash rates. We saw the yield expand, which is encouraging despite the pressure at both the long end and so for a contraction in the quarter, I was hoping you could just speak to your appetite to extend duration this environment.

不，謝謝你們的顏色。 只是為了讓我快速跟進 NII，我知道您似乎重新部署了相當數量的現金利率。 我們看到收益率有所增長，儘管長期面臨壓力，但這一情況令人鼓舞，因此對於本季度的收縮，我希望您能說出自己的意願，以延長這種環境的持續時間。

I know you've had some reversion to that in the past, but do you anticipate redeploying additional excess liquidity just to meet the expectation for deeper rate cuts?

我知道您過去曾有過一些回歸，但您是否預計會重新部署額外的過剩流動性，只是為了滿足進一步降息的預期？

Yes, sure. So on extending duration, save, you know, there's obviously been I just think it's important to say that all else equal, extending duration doesn't change expected NII if you assume that on the policy rate follows the forward rate. So point one.

是的，當然。 因此，在延長久期方面，你知道，很明顯，我認為重要的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果你假設政策利率遵循遠期利率，那麼延長久期不會改變預期的NII。 所以第一點。

Point two, pave the way we view the curve remains inverted. And so even if you don't believe that the policy rate follows the forwards on extending right now is actually a headwind to the short term. And I like that's not that wouldn't be a consideration for us, either whatever that I think that's worth saying for the broader audience, it's quite different from the situation that you hope for --

第二點，為我們觀察曲線保持倒掛鋪路。 因此，即使你不相信政策利率現在會跟隨遠期利率的延長，實際上對短期來說也是一個阻力。 我喜歡這不是我們不考慮的事情，無論我認為這對更廣泛的受眾來說是值得說的，這與你希望的情況完全不同——

The numbers look good going is it 6%.

這個數字看起來不錯，是 6%。

So really, again now so when we so what do we think have a question of extending duration and really managing duration right now, a couple of things, I say. So obviously, a lot of different versions of duration. But one number that we disclosed as the EAR when the 10-Q comes out, you'll see that that number is a little bit lower on that will come down from 2.8 to about 2.1 of our current estimates are correct, that for a number of reasons, some of which are passive, but some of those are active choices to extend duration a little bit.

所以，真的，現在，當我們有延長持續時間和真正管理持續時間的問題時，我說有幾件事。 顯然，持續時間有很多不同的版本。 但是當 10-Q 出來時，我們作為 EAR 披露的數字，您會發現這個數字有點低，將從 2.8 下降到我們當前正確估計的 2.1 左右，對於一個數字原因有很多，有些是被動的，但有些是主動選擇，稍微延長一點時間。

And then the end, the choice to manage and extend duration is really about balancing the volatility of NI, I think, against protecting the Company from extreme scenarios in on either side. And so right now, if we wanted to hit the ground as a result of revenue from different factors, we certainly could we have the capacity inside the portfolio on. But yes, for now, we're comfortable with where we are.

最後，我認為管理和延長期限的選擇實際上是為了平衡 NI 的波動性，避免保護公司免受任何一方極端情況的影響。 因此，現在，如果我們想透過不同因素的收入來實現落地，我們當然可以擁有投資組合內的產能。但是，是的，目前我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

The one did a great show you the full crew will not be the same boat curve in six months.

這個很好地向您展示了全體船員在六個月內將不會出現同一艘船曲線。

Thank you so much for taking my questions.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks Steve.

謝謝史蒂夫。

Thank you. Next we'll go to the line of Erika Najarian from UBS. You may proceed.

謝謝。 接下來我們將轉到瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian 的線路。 您可以繼續。

Our first question on. Thank you very much, sir. Answering all the on along coastal California will also, I guess another follow-up. I think you can imagine what's going on for the Houston on stage and September, everyone's trying to figure out the over-under for net interest income of here.

我們的第一個問題是。 非常感謝您，先生。 回答所有關於加州沿海地區的問題，我想還有另一個後續行動。 我想你可以想像休士頓在舞台上和九月發生了什麼，每個人都在試圖弄清楚這裡淨利息收入的上下。

So maybe a two-part first question on the second being inspired will kill me to slide number. one NII is expected to be down 6% sequentially in Q4 year over year in '25, key focus has been down 4% from new level.

因此，也許第一個問題分為兩部分，第二個問題受到啟發，這會讓我對投影片編號感到厭煩。 預計 25 年第四季的 NII 預計將比去年同期下降 6%，重點關注的焦點是較新水準下降 4%。

So it sounds like consensus for house rules upon down on based on the forward curve Jeremy, it could be a little bit worse year-over-year in the fourth quarter sequential rate, but that means fold either a team Jamie noted we have no idea what the current going to look like, right?

因此，這聽起來像是基於遠期曲線傑里米（Jeremy）對內部規則的共識，第四季度連續率的同比情況可能會更糟，但這意味著傑米（Jamie）指出我們不知道的球隊是否會棄牌當前會是什麼樣子，對吧？

It's generated so much in flux as we think about the curve, is it better for JPMorgan to have on more cuts in a short on the steepness or laptop, but a little bit of a flatter curve?

當我們考慮曲線時，它產生瞭如此多的變化，對於摩根大通來說，在陡峭度或筆記型電腦上進行更多的空頭削減，但曲線更平坦一點更好嗎？

Right? Okay. You through a cobalt, the under our goal was expecting that to be the end of your question, but let me answer the beginning of your question and then I'll also answer the other question. So we see the current 2025 consensus for NIX markets to be at currently at 87, which is obviously lower than it was at the conference earlier in the quarter. So we're happy to see that move a little bit more in line to us.

正確的？ 好的。 你透過鈷，我們的目標是期望這是你問題的結束，但讓我回答你問題的開頭，然後我也會回答另一個問題。 因此，我們認為目前 NIX 市場的 2025 年共識為 87，這明顯低於本季度早些時候會議的共識。 因此，我們很高興看到這一趨勢與我們更加一致。

That's still looks a little choppy, but it's definitely in the ballpark. Now are that consists of I already mentioned previously that we sort of expect the NI trough sometime in the middle of the year or so. You can kind of assemble the park. So you've got a Q4 run rate, you've got some sequential declines.

這看起來仍然有點不穩定，但絕對是在大致範圍內。 我之前已經提到過，我們預計 NI 低谷會在年中左右的某個時間出現。 你可以把公園組裝起來。 所以你有第四季度的運行率，你有一些連續下降。

You've got a trough in the middle of the year and you've got a rough ballpark for the full year is lower than those numbers. And then to the extent that growth with all four zones in the back half of the year, both deposit balances and the ongoing tailwind of corporate revolver, that tailwind will be a little bit less than you might have otherwise thought. I mean, sorry, a little less than it was this year, but still a tailwind.

年中會遇到一個低谷，全年的粗略估計會低於這些數字。 然後，就今年下半年所有四個地區的成長而言，無論是存款餘額還是企業左輪手槍的持續推動力，這種推動力將比您想像的要小一些。 我的意思是，抱歉，比今年少了一點，但仍然是順風車。

Obviously, the mix of those things will play out in different ways. And as you point out, who knows what the yield curve will wind up doing, but on our current assumptions on the current yield curve and remembering that were in the third quarter now, so we're doing this kind of early on, that's what we pay now.

顯然，這些東西的混合將以不同的方式發揮作用。 正如您所指出的，誰知道殖利率曲線最終會發生什麼，但根據我們目前對當前殖利率曲線的假設，並記住現在是在第三季度，所以我們很早就在做這種事情，這就是我們現在付款。

Very good to see some visual. Nick Thomas, you can do number. I've always been full time on this call. We go through with a guessing what am I going to be next year. This guidance also point out that NII all things being equal is a number, but all things are never equal.

很高興看到一些視覺效果。 尼克·托馬斯，你可以做數字。 我一直全職參與這個電話會議。 我們猜測明年我會是什麼樣子。 該指南還指出，NII 萬物平等是一個數字，但萬物永遠不會平等。

The yield curve field, you have a recession effectively, NewCo will be very different. And you have continued growth in your decisions that are made nonstop by us and the thing you have in the marketplace, and I just think we've been too much time it just this relevancy.

殖利率曲線領域，如果經濟衰退有效，NewCo 將會有很大不同。 您的決策不斷增長，這些決策是由我們和您在市場上擁有的東西不間斷地做出的，我只是認為我們在這種相關性上花費了太多時間。

So a good model and a number of new model. And so so it's going to be less than 87 next year. Probably know, we don't go and we don't know the environment.

所以出現了好的模型和一些新的模型。 所以明年這個數字將低於 87。 大概知道，我們不去也不了解環境。

Okay. And now to your question about the EAR. So fusing saying there. So as I already mentioned on, we when that comes out at all show a number around 2.1, a very important thing to say, as you know or the experience of this rate cycle is more, which is that on load deposit beta.

好的。 現在回答您關於 EAR 的問題。 所以融合在那裡說。 正如我已經提到的，當這個數字出來時，我們會顯示一個大約2.1 的數字，這是一個非常重要的事情，正如你所知，或者這個利率週期的經驗更多，這就是負載存款測試版的經驗。

So as a starting point and you have to kind of adjust FDA or number to be bigger than the reported number for those in a few other reasons, actually, there's some nuances around of dollar non-dollar sensitivity interact on.

因此，作為一個起點，出於其他一些原因，您必須將 FDA 或數字調整為大於報告的數字，實際上，美元非美元敏感性交互作用存在一些細微差別。

And then there is your question, which is a little bit about the front end versus the back end. So what you see is that actually the front end EAR. has gotten smaller and most of the year are now back at. So it's definitely the case that all else being equal. So I think what I would also say is that this kind of empirical versus theoretical adjustment is disproportionately in the front end.

然後是你的問題，有點關於前端與後端的問題。 所以您看到的實際上是前端 EAR。已經變小了，一年中的大部分時間都回到了原來的狀態。 因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，情況肯定是如此。 所以我想我還要說的是，這種經驗與理論的調整在前端是不成比例的。

So therefore, in order to answer your question, I would say, yes, we want a steeper curve, but having the Fed cut more than what's currently in the yield curve is data only at the margin for the context of next year's numbers would be a headwind for us. We remain asset sensitive to Fed cuts.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我會說，是的，我們想要一條更陡峭的曲線，但聯準會降息幅度超過目前殖利率曲線的幅度，只是明年數據的邊際數據將是對我們來說是一個逆風。我們對聯準會降息仍保持資產敏感。

And if I can ask my second question, thinking I completely understand your frustration in kidney failure, long-term shareholders really don't care about whether it's 87 or 85, right here that your return on equity to that and having it in seeing how much capital in January of each quarter, 72 basis points this quarter until.

如果我可以問我的第二個問題，我認為我完全理解您對腎衰竭的沮喪，長期股東真的不關心它是 87 還是 85，就在這裡，您的股本回報率，並了解如何1月份每季資金多，本季直至72個基點。

Beyond the standard boilerplate question. Secondly, again, on buyback in organic growth, the Adiana dividend increases, Pershing, we think about and JP Morgan deploying this capital in the world is generally your oil array your dominant already and you could use this capital to further enhance your business.

超出標準樣板問題。 其次，再次強調，在有機成長的回購方面，阿迪亞納股息增加，潘興，我們認為摩根大通在世界範圍內部署這筆資金通常是您的石油陣列，您已經占主導地位，您可以利用這筆資金進一步增強您的業務。

And again, beyond that boiler plate conversation that you always get every quarter, you're having a shareholder, I think about how you're thinking about the opportunity to deploy the capital.

再說一次，除了每個季度都會聽到的模板對話之外，你還有一個股東，我會考慮你如何考慮部署資本的機會。

Okay. First, I would say, David, I'd be very careful in that. We've got some very tough competition. There are different in different countries, different around the world for fintech companies. You have a direct lenders, and I must be I was going to be very specific coming on direct lending stuff like that.

好的。 首先，我想說，大衛，我會非常小心。 我們面臨著非常激烈的競爭。 對金融科技公司來說，不同國家、世界各地都有不同的情況。 你有一個直接貸款人，我一定會非常具體地討論類似的直接貸款問題。

So our goal is always to serve our clients and moved the motor books and music senses that is a deployment of capital is deployed in different ways. We opened branches, you initially experience and expense, but then really new capital to support the deposits that we make the same for the innovation economy, safer, private bankers, et cetera.

所以我們的目標始終是服務我們的客戶並感動汽車書籍和音樂感官，這是資本的部署以不同的方式部署。 我們開設了分行，您最初會經歷和支出，但隨後會有真正的新資本來支持我們為創新經濟、更安全、私人銀行家等提供的存款。

If you look at a roughly we have about a minimum $30 billion of excess capital in it for me is not burning a hole in my pocket. I look at it, you own the whole company and you can properly deployed now is perfectly reasonable to wait. And I've been quite clear.

如果你粗略地看一下，我們至少有大約 300 億美元的過剩資本，對我來說這並不會在我的口袋裡燒個洞。 我看了一下，你擁有整個公司，你現在可以正確部署，等待是完全合理的。 我已經說得很清楚了。

They think things are the future to be quite turbulent and asset prices. In my view and you in life, I've got to take us through plays or a little bit, but I prefer to wait. We will be able to deploy our shows very well served by waiting. And you're saying that we're deploying capital where we can buy.

他們認為未來的情況會相當動盪，資產價格也會上漲。 在我和生活中的你看來，我必須帶我們看戲劇或一點點，但我更願意等待。 透過等待，我們將能夠很好地部署我們的節目。 你是說我們正在將資本部署到我們可以購買的地方。

It will grow by $100 billion 6%. Mortgages increased our net income by a couple of billion tomorrow. We will make decisions like that. The mode. Importantly, we do serve our clients without building technology, do things like that. And we also do real excess capital is yet.

它將成長 1000 億美元，成長 6%。 明天抵押貸款使我們的淨收入增加了幾十億。 我們會做出這樣的決定。 模式。 重要的是，我們確實在不建構技術的情況下為客戶提供服務，做類似的事情。 而且我們還沒有真正做到資本過剩。

So we feel that we're patient would be rotation rate and it will be from right. And so that's where we are not going to change. So that changes we'll let you know. So here we do charge a low shows and they understand who are buying stock back at more than two times tangible book value is not necessarily the best thing to do because we think we're there up to redeploy.

所以我們覺得我們對旋轉速度有耐心，而且它會從右邊開始。 這就是我們不會改變的地方。 因此，如有更改，我們會通知您。 因此，在這裡，我們確實收取較低的費用，他們明白誰以有形賬面價值兩倍以上的價格回購股票不一定是最好的事情，因為我們認為我們可以重新部署。

You were to buy back at cheaper prices at one point. Orders do not have a high forever.

你會在某一時刻以更便宜的價格回購。 訂單永遠不會高。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I have one less thing. Cash is a very valuable asset. Sometimes in a turbulent world. You see my friend Warren Buffett, stockpiling cash rate, though. I mean people to be a little more thoughtful about how we're trying to navigate in this world and growth for the long term for our company.

這樣我就少了一件事情。 現金是非常寶貴的資產。 有時在一個動盪的世界。 不過，你會看到我的朋友華倫巴菲特正在囤積現金。 我的意思是，人們要多思考我們如何在這個世界上航行以及我們公司的長期發展。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。 您可以繼續。

Hi, thanks very much. And so glad we didn't say it was about the safest at the answer to this question on. So period, we've seen that in a couple of more banks entering partnerships with alternative managers. We've seen limited loan growth for a few years now.

你好，非常感謝。 很高興我們在回答這個問題時沒有說這是最安全的。 在此期間，我們看到越來越多的銀行與替代管理公司建立了合作關係。 幾年來我們看到貸款成長有限。

Market related also limited flows into fixed income funds, yet plenty of growth in private credit in general. And you're one of the best estimate is on the planet. But I in my view, less dominant in their words and and why that's too narrow view of your ability to serve all parts of the clients lending needs, not just the public markets and pump clinic side. Thanks.

與市場相關的資金流入固定收益基金也受到限制，但私人信貸整體成長強勁。 你是這個星球上最準確的估計之一。 但我認為，他們的言論不太占主導地位，以及為什麼這種觀點過於狹隘，無法滿足客戶貸款需求的所有部分，而不僅僅是公共市場和泵診所方面。 謝謝。

So let me take time to cover this one. Obviously is very, very important. People talk about how the growing importance and things like that until the first and foremost is about very strategic and then very tactical. I think they're both important.

讓我花點時間來介紹一下這一點。 顯然是非常非常重要的。 人們談論如何日益增長的重要性以及諸如此類的事情，直到第一個也是最重要的是非常戰略性的，然後是非常戰術性的。 我認為他們都很重要。

First and foremost, we are here to give our clients agnostic view of the world and with the best products and services or for them. Therefore, when a client comes in, we will offer them both direct lending on their own ourselves in syndicated lending world, especially co-lending, and they all have pluses and minuses.

首先也是最重要的，我們在這裡為客戶提供不可知的世界觀，並為他們提供最好的產品和服務。 因此，當客戶進來時，我們會在銀團貸款領域為他們提供直接貸款，特別是聯合貸款，它們都有優點和缺點。

Direct Lending could be done faster, simpler covenants, unitranche, it is more expensive and you see a little things go back and forth between soon, Caitlin indirect lending. But we're going to for for the clients basically, which in their best interest and tell them what those products are.

直接貸款可以更快、更簡單的契約、統一貸款，它更昂貴，而且你會看到凱特琳間接貸款之間很快就會發生一些事情。 但我們基本上會為客戶服務，這符合他們的最大利益，並告訴他們這些產品是什麼。

Of course, I think we mentioned before in the past, we've reallocated $10 billion of capital to meet direct load reduction deployed a lot of capital that was already paid also done. So we are going to do it directly and we are going to tend to be 20 or 30, limited today. I will say today we're extending we will do $500 million , then we will do $1 billion will do more billion will do it should sold had to do with partners.

當然，我想我們過去提到過，我們已經重新分配了100億美元的資本來滿足直接減載的要求，部署了大量已經支付的資本也已經完成了。 所以我們將直接進行，我們將傾向於 20 或 30 個，今天有限。 我今天要說的是，我們將延長 5 億美元，然後我們將做 10 億美元，將做更多 10 億美元，我們將做應該與合作夥伴一起出售的事情。

Very importantly, we are not going to allocate yourself to one quarter. So we have, but we've announced a bunch because lenders, but that just creates more flexibility in more size, will not use that flexibility is slowing down of your provision for everybody because like I said, JPMorgan could underwrite it. And Cindy and only like a bridge loan syndicated, you have to the fact so you could ever use their own risk, measure those and stuff like that.

非常重要的是，我們不會將自己分配給四分之一。 所以我們已經這樣做了，但我們已經宣布了很多，因為貸款人，但這只會在更大的規模上創造更大的靈活性，不會利用這種靈活性減慢你為每個人提供的準備金，因為就像我說的，摩根大通可以承保它。 辛迪，就像銀團過橋貸款一樣，你必須了解這一事實，這樣你才能利用自己的風險，衡量這些風險和類似的東西。

Again, all in the service, oh, the client and making sure we're working in other investing in a it will go into different driving. We're not going to ourselves exclusive in your working capital provider. I think that would limit, but we can offer our clients will be more price competitive or we could do something very specific thing and not the solution.

再說一次，所有的服務，哦，客戶，並確保我們正在從事其他投資，它將進入不同的驅動力。 我們不會獨佔您的營運資金提供者。 我認為這會受到限制，但我們可以為客戶提供更具競爭力的價格，或者我們可以做一些非常具體的事情而不是解決方案。

That is the third, we'll be there to do it, and we're going to do it despite of the bank capital arbitrage taking place. So if you look at the arbitrage today would have been cast to hold per day with insurance because they are dramatic and that's a disadvantage.

這是第三個，我們會去做，儘管銀行有資本套利，我們還是會去做。 因此，如果你看看今天的套利，你會發現每天都持有保險，因為套利規模很大，這是一個劣勢。

But we've had those disadvantages in other business will grow over time. We are going to which way the client remember when we do believe that the client, we also get other revenues often. So it isn't just the loan and we look at the whole relationship. So what we're quite companies and compete. I just announced much bigger lending platforms and sizes and stuff like that.

但我們在其他業務中已經遇到的這些劣勢將隨著時間的推移而成長。 當我們確實相信客戶時，我們會以客戶記住的方式進行，我們也經常獲得其他收入。 因此，這不僅僅是貸款，我們還要考慮整個關係。 所以我們是相當大的公司並且競爭。 我剛剛宣布了更大的貸款平台和規模以及類似的東西。

So sorry, thanks for all that.

很抱歉，謝謝你所做的一切。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy）。 您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Jeremy, and good morning, Jamie. Jeremy, when you guys look at your current capital ratios are obviously very healthy. Can you guys give us some color on the new Basel three? We don't know what the specifics are, but as Vice Chair bar touched on some of the specifics, it looks like capital requirements for yourself and your peers will come down a fair amount from the original proposal.

早安，傑里米，早安，傑米。 傑里米，當你們看看你們目前的資本比率顯然非常健康。 你們能給我們一些關於新巴塞爾三號的資訊嗎？ 我們不知道具體細節是什麼，但正如副主席巴爾談到的一些具體細節一樣，看起來您和您的同行的資本要求將比最初的提案下降相當多。

How are you guys thinking about that? You have any insights on how much of it may fall from the original proposal to where you are today?

你們覺得怎麼樣？ 您對最初的提案有多少可能落入您今天的位置有什麼見解嗎？

What I said, we were at $30 billion of excess that is assuming bar speech 20 goes to 12 revenues more. We will be more than that because there are other factors involved. Now I would just giving the minimum excess capital. In my mind, you will be more, but it is where it is, and we'll wait to see the final numbers.

我說過，我們的盈餘額為 300 億美元，假設酒吧演講 20 美元可以帶來 12 美元的收入。 我們會做得更多，因為還涉及其他因素。 現在我只提供最低限度的超額資本。 在我看來，你會更多，但事實就是如此，我們將等待看到最終的數字。

But Gerard, just maybe to give you a bit of color. So yes, obviously, everyone I'm paid a lot of attention to that stage was an important speech, but Indiana, and we actually just really need to see the proposal because the details matter a lot for this stuff.

但是傑拉德，也許只是為了給你一點色彩。 所以，是的，顯然，我在那個舞台上非常關注的每個人都是一個重要的演講，但是印第安納州，我們實際上真的需要看到該提案，因為細節對於這個東西非常重要。

And so our focus is on hoping to see the proposal so that we can process the detail and continue. I know, Dave, relative approval process because the original proposal was, um, so dramatically higher than what anyone thought was reasonable.

因此，我們的重點是希望看到該提案，以便我們可以處理細節並繼續進行。 戴夫，我知道相對的批准程序，因為最初的提案，嗯，遠高於任何人認為合理的水平。

And I would remind you which we obviously know that before this proposal came out, it was our position strongly felt that are then prevailing capital requirements were if anything are ready, more other than we needed. So, um, go a long way to go here.

我想提醒您的是，我們顯然知道，在該提案提出之前，我們的立場是強烈認為，當時普遍的資本要求是，如果一切準備就緒，則比我們需要的更多。 所以，嗯，要走很長的路才到這裡。

And I think our position, which Jamie has been articulating very consistently is that they need to get it right, the right amount of work and importantly through it holistically. So it's not just sort of , our So um, but that's really what we feel strongly.

我認為我們的立場（傑米一直在明確表達）是，他們需要做正確的事情，做適量的工作，重要的是從整體上完成工作。 所以這不僅僅是我們的嗯，但這確實是我們強烈的感受。

We just what the numbers of media rights can justify that they had to go up. Maybe five was to just think they should be done with due diligence, and we'll put a little bit of thought about cost benefit would have does the economy were to put where pushes leading things like that. So so we will anxiously awaiting to see the actual detail. That's what's going to make all the difference.

我們只是知道媒​​體轉播權的數量可以證明它們必須增加。 也許第五是認為應該透過盡職調查來完成這些工作，我們會稍微考慮一下成本效益，如果經濟將推動這樣的事情發生的話。 因此，我們將焦急地等待看到實際的細節。 這就是讓一切變得不同的原因。

Very good. And then as a follow up in view of this excess capital and your comments a moment ago about direct lending, you look at your current cash and marketable securities, $1.5 trillion, average loan is $1.3 trillion or everything. When the dust settles, you know what your capital requirements are.

非常好。 然後，鑑於資本過剩和您剛才關於直接貸款的評論，您可以查看當前的現金和有價證券，1.5 兆美元，平均貸款為 1.3 兆美元或所有內容。 當塵埃落定後，您就知道自己的資本要求是什麼。

Can you frame out for us can you levering up the excess capital with more loans than and I pass it might be considered over the next two or three years relative to where you are on a mixed basis. I know you're going to grow your loans by time about the mix.

您能否為我們規劃一下，您是否可以透過比您在未來兩到三年內考慮的更多貸款來槓桿化過​​剩資本（相對於您在混合基礎上的情況）。 我知道隨著時間的推移，你的貸款將會增加。

Absolutely positively, not lowered. You would have about fine.

絕對積極，不降低。 你本來就很好。

And I do think, Gerard, it depends a lot on what type of loans you're talking about, right? So I think in the And as Jamie said, like capital, we're going to deploy it ideally to grow the franchise organically. And that could include, you know, loans that are or was good loans on a stand-alone basis as well as loans that are part of an overall release, our share of what we're getting other revenue as part of that.

我確實認為，傑拉德，這在很大程度上取決於您所談論的貸款類型，對吧？ 所以我認為正如傑米所說，就像資本一樣，我們將理想地部署它來有機地發展特許經營權。 這可能包括，你知道，單獨的貸款是或曾經是好的貸款，以及作為整體發布的一部分的貸款，我們在其中獲得的其他收入中所佔的份額。

So is the same strategy that we've always had. But I wouldn't think of it as like excess capital to be deployed against a particular product. I would think of it, as you know, it's there for a rainy day. Let's hope the environment doesn't deteriorate along. But if it does, we'll be ready and there will be opportunities hopefully to deployed against the client franchise or against the stock. And if not for return on that.

我們一直以來採用的策略也是如此。 但我不認為這是針對特定產品部署多餘的資本。 我會想到它，正如你所知，它是為了未雨綢繆。 希望環境不要隨之惡化。 但如果確實如此，我們將做好準備，並且有望有機會針對客戶特許經營權或針對股票進行部署。 如果不是為了回報的話。

Very good. Appreciate the color and candor as always, thank you.

非常好。 一如既往地欣賞色彩和坦誠，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。 您可以繼續。

Good morning Jamie. Lower rates was supposed to drive a pickup in loan growth and conversion of some of these investment banking pipeline. So obviously, we just had one car, it's early, but any beginning signs of weakness in terms of the interest in borrowing law.

早安，傑米。較低的利率本應推動貸款成長和部分投資銀行管道的轉換加快。 顯然，我們只有一輛車，現在還為時過早，但在藉貸法的興趣方面有任何疲軟的跡象。

And again, conversion of the banks were pipe lines.

再次，銀行轉變為管道。

I would say that generally know, frankly with a couple of minor exceptions. So I think it's probably fair to say that the outperformance late in the quarter and investment banking fees was to a meaningful degree, as I mentioned, driven by DCM and as opposed to some degree, driven by the acceleration of the closing of some M&A transactions.

坦白說，我想說，除了一些小例外之外，一般人都知道。 因此，我認為可以公平地說，正如我所提到的，本季末的表現出色，投資銀行費用在一定程度上是由DCM 推動的，而不是在某種程度上是由一些併購交易加速完成推動的。

And I do think that some of that DCM outperformance is in the sort of types of deals that are opportunistic deals that aren't in our pipeline and those are often driven by treasurers and CFOs sort of seeing going on there. So as possible with us a little bit of a consequence of the cuts.

我確實認為，DCM 的一些出色表現是在一些機會主義交易類型中，這些交易不在我們的管道中，而這些交易通常是由財務主管和財務長看到那裡正在發生的事情推動的。 因此，我們盡可能地了解削減的一些後果。

But I think I mentioned we did see, for example, a pickup and on a mortgage applications and a tiny bit of pickup in refi and our multi-family lending business or might be some hints of more more activity there. But you know, these cuts were very heavily price right at the curve has been inverted for a long time sort of a large degree this is expected on.

但我想我提到過，例如，我們確實看到了抵押貸款申請的回升以及再融資和我們的多戶貸款業務的小幅回升，或者可能是那裡有更多活動的一些跡象。 但你知道，這些降價幅度非常大，價格曲線已經倒掛了很長一段時間，這在很大程度上是預期的。

So I'm not so obvious to me that you should expect immediate dramatic reactions. And thus not really what we're seeing.

所以我並不認為你應該期待立即的戲劇性反應。 因此，這並不是我們所看到的。

Early in the debt markets does breaking down, spreads are quite low and mortgage a wide-open. So it's kind of makes sense that people are taking advantage that today. So those conditions may not prevail, be the ongoing conditions late next year.

在債務市場確實崩盤的早期，利差相當低，抵押貸款開放程度很高。 所以今天人們利用這一點是有道理的。 因此，這些情況可能不會普遍存在，而是明年年底的持續情況。

And then specifically in the debit and credit card spend that you guys breakout, you had nice growth year over year are up 6% flat Q Q over Q or the mid-quarter.

然後，特別是在你們突破的金融卡和信用卡支出方面，你們的同比增長很好，比上季度或季度中期持平 6%。

So I think there is to say a consumer spend is a little bit boring in a sense because what's happened is that has become normal. So meaning no, I mean, I think we're getting to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk about the pandemic.

所以我認為，從某種意義上來說，消費者支出有點無聊，因為發生的事情已經變得正常。 所以我的意思是“不”，我認為我們已經到了談論這場流行病不再有意義的地步。

But maybe one last time. You know, one of the things that you had was that heavy rotation in the T and E as people did a lot of traveling and they book cruises then done before an ever-growing was going out to dinner or whatever.

但也許是最後一次。 你知道，其中一件事就是 T 和 E 的頻繁輪換，因為人們進行了​​大量旅行，他們預訂遊輪，然後在越來越多的人出去吃飯或其他事情之前完成。

So you had the big spike in T and E, the big rotation into discretionary spending, and that's now normalized. And you would normally think that rotation out of discretionary and non-discretionary would be a sign of consumers battening down the hatches and getting ready for a much worse environment.

因此，T 和 E 出現了大幅增長，可自由支配支出大幅增加，現在已經正常化了。 你通常會認為，從可自由裁量和非可自由裁量的輪換將是消費者做好準備迎接更糟糕的環境的跡象。

But given the levels that it started from what we see it as is actually like normalization and inside that they are not seeing weakening, for example, in retail spending. So overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid and consistent with the narrative that consumers on solid footing and consistent with a strong labor market and the current central case of a kind of know landing scenario economically. But you know, obviously, as we always point out, that's one scenario and there are many other scenarios.

但考慮到它從我們所認為的開始的水平實際上就像正常化一樣，而且在內部，他們沒有看到零售支出等方面的疲軟。 因此，總體而言，我們認為支出模式是穩固的，並且符合這樣的說法：消費者基礎穩固，與強勁的勞動力市場相一致，以及當前一種了解經濟落地情景的核心案例。 但你知道，顯然，正如我們總是指出的那樣，這只是一種情況，還有許多其他情況。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。 謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。 您可以繼續。

Hey, Jamie, I think I can you comment on government this year near clear and the August 2, op-ed, Washington Post diverse, you're talking about government. I think it was this week or last week on Bloomberg, your top 10 bank merger should be allowed, your best toward August you were asked, which is my question now under what circumstances would you need for government services.

嘿，傑米，我想我可以對今年的政府發表近乎清晰的評論，8 月 2 日《華盛頓郵報》的專欄文章多種多樣，你​​在談論政府。 我認為這週或上週在彭博社上，你的十大銀行合併應該被允許，你在八月的最佳表現被問到，這是我現在的問題在什麼情況下你需要政府服務。

And your answer that it was I love what I do. We get it. You love what you do. So under what circumstances would you consider government service? It seems like you be more likely to go now than in the past, just based on the numerous comments they've made. Is that right wrong? What you're thinking?

你的回答是我喜歡我所做的事情。 我們明白了。 你熱愛你所做的事情。 那麼什麼情況下你會考慮政府服務呢？ 僅根據他們發表的大量評論，您現在似乎比過去更有可能去。 這是對錯嗎？ 你在想什麼？

Is wrong. I've always been a American Patriot and their country is more important to me than my company. And I think the government is very important to get this. But if you look at the world today, Mike, so important that we get things right for the whole geopolitical world so much just talking about the American economy.

是錯誤的。 我一直是美國愛國者，他們的國家對我來說比我的公司更重要。 我認為政府對於實現這一點非常重要。 但如果你看看當今的世界，麥克，你會發現，這一點非常重要，以至於我們光是談論美國經濟就可以為整個地緣政治世界做好事情。

So and we tried to participate in policy with the local level state level of the federal level of international level to what I hope that's our job we've tried to grow kind of is things like that. So those things change and my view, my opinion where my interest, I just think it's very, very important. We trailed government do a good job.

因此，我們嘗試參與地方層級、州層級、聯邦層級、國際層級的政策，我希望這就是我們的工作，我們試圖發展類似的事情。 所以這些事情發生了變化，我的觀點、我的觀點、我的興趣，我只是覺得這是非常非常重要的。我們落後於政府，做得很好。

So if you were asked by the next administration has served the country, would you be open to considering it?

因此，如果下一屆政府問你是否為國家服務過，你會願意考慮嗎？

I am I to the shares that is almost nil and I probably am not going to do it, but I've always reserve the right home a promise that we don't have to. But no, I mean, I love what I do. I intend to be during the June was guarantee will be doing this for a long period of time for at least until the board kick me out.

我的股份幾乎為零，我可能不會這樣做，但我總是對合適的家保留一個我們不必這樣做的承諾。 但不，我的意思是，我熱愛我所做的事情。 我打算在六月期間保證會這樣做很長一段時間，至少直到董事會把我踢出去。

Let me take the flipside of that question for those who are worried about you leaving at the other side of the question is we're on stock valued and I think part I think that's what you're saying. You're saying the stock market is overvalued and therefore all stocks are valued and on on the one hand, you guys you highlight on this call a high tech market share gains, high returns, high capital.

對於那些擔心你離開的人來說，讓我從這個問題的另一面來說，問題的另一面是我們的股票估值，我認為我認為這就是你所說的。 你們說股市被高估了，因此所有股票都被估值了，一方面，你們強調高科技市佔率的成長、高報酬、高資本。

So do you think in some way, when you think about the value price near ability to do buybacks, you're taking more about an old-school model for valuing your stock as opposed to new school model that might put you in a category more tech-oriented field firms, especially as it relates to your products with AI.

那麼，您是否以某種方式認為，當您考慮回購能力附近的價值價格時，您會更多地採用老式模型來評估您的股票，而不是新的學校模型，這可能會讓您更容易進入一個類別面向技術的現場公司，尤其是與人工智慧產品相關的公司。

So is that you're making very good point, which is I think we have an exceptional company, exceptional franchises and played formulation, buy, buy, buy, buy the stock, but not that exuberant, but even tech valuations or any valuation, what mode still, it is very inflated values.

所以你的觀點非常好，我認為我們擁有一家出色的公司，出色的特許經營權，並發揮了配方，買，買，買，買股票，但不是那麼旺盛，但即使是科技估值或任何估值，還什麼模式，價值觀很膨脹。

And so I just which is quite patient that and I think you're going to the judges over time, but we've done the right, do nothing and remember, we could always do it through way. Time will be that much would be organic, but that happy.

所以我對此非常有耐心，我認為隨著時間的推移，你會去見評委，但我們做了正確的事，什麼都不做，記住，我們總是可以透過方式做到這一點。 時間就會那麼有機，但是那麼快樂。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America. Your line is open.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。 您的線路已開通。

Good morning. I guess I just wanted to follow up, you talked about private credit in the disruption to bank lending of this is a hearing a lot about likes of gain seed, another market makers potentially disrupting fixed income trading. Is that a real risk?

早安. 我想我只是想跟進，你談到了私人信貸對銀行貸款的干擾，這是一個關於增益種子之類的聽證會，另一個做市商可能會擾亂固定收益交易。 這是真正的風險嗎？

And is there an opportunity for from the JPMorgan to actually compete on the private lending side or market-making beyond traditional sort of activity?

摩根大通是否有機會在民間借貸或傳統活動之外的做市方面進行實際競爭？

Ebrahim, though I would frame that is not a risk, but has a reality like we've always emphasized and all of our businesses that we operate in an extremely competitive environment. And that applies to ended. That competitive environment isn't limited to competing against banks or traditional financial institutions is expensed in the consumer space, defense mix and match market making space.

易卜拉欣，雖然我認為這不是一個風險，但有一個現實，就像我們一直強調的那樣，我們所有的業務都在一個極其競爭的環境中運作。 這適用於結束。 這種競爭環境不僅限於與銀行或傳統金融機構的競爭，還包括消費領域、國防組合和配對做市領域。

It obviously increasingly is extending to some of the types of firms that you're referring to now as far as are many cases also clients, and that's the same type of dynamic that you see, for example, on the private credit space that we have discussed before.

顯然，它越來越多地擴展到您現在提到的某些類型的公司，在許多情況下也是客戶，這與您看到的相同類型的動態，例如，在我們擁有的私人信貸領域之前討論過。

So there's no question that the ecosystem is changing. You've got new competitors, you've got changes in market structure to Diana. Thanks. And as with any business, we are innovating and adjusting and making sure that we refer to compete and all the traditional ways and all the new ways.

因此，毫無疑問，生態系統正在改變。 對戴安娜來說，你有了新的競爭對手，市場結構也改變了。 謝謝。 與任何企業一樣，我們正在創新和調整，並確保我們參考競爭以及所有傳統方式和所有新方式。

Of course, there are some ways in which being a bank hinders our ability to do that. And one of the argument is that we've made going back to the capital liquidity regulation is that when you come to the impact on the kind of US capital markets ecosystem, which you know is the envy of the world.

當然，銀行在某些方面阻礙了我們做到這一點的能力。 論點之一是，我們回到資本流動性監管上來，當你談到對美國資本市場生態系統的影響時，你知道這是全世界羨慕的。

It worked well in its current construct for a long time where, you know, some activities were inside the regulator perimeter and there was robust participation from and a world where more and more of that activity gets pushed outside of bank bent market makers is a meaningful change to that structure that is untested and it's unclear why you were off that.

它在目前的結構中運行了很長一段時間，你知道，一些活動是在監管機構範圍內進行的，並且有來自銀行的大力參與，而且越來越多的活動被推到銀行傾向的做市商之外，這是一個有意義的世界。

And we have cautioned that such The intent of the regulations should be intentional on well studied on. But in the meantime, we're going to adjust and compared to the best for our ability, given the constraints of the current rules of the.

我們已經告誡說，此​​類法規的意圖應該有意識地進行充分研究。 但同時，考慮到現行規則的限制，我們將根據我們的能力進行調整和比較。

So in the private markets, so remains to be seen how that develops. So there is a little bit of that and some people talk about your making more activity, the private markets in some ways, we're well positioned for that, too because for that, you need liquidity, market-making valuation, no buyers and sellers in both size a great degree.

因此，在私募市場上，情況如何發展仍有待觀察。 所以有一點，有些人談論你在某種程度上進行更多的活動，私人市場，我們也為此做好了準備，因為為此，你需要流動性、做市估值、沒有買家和賣家的規模大小都很大。

So that hasn't developed yet, but we're not we should you may have competition, but yes, we'll be there when the time comes in. The second one is the public markets, you have seen reports about your dealer inventories, both corporate and treasuries. And I do think that's a little bit.

所以這還沒有發展，但我們不是，我們應該你可能有競爭，但是是的，到時候我們就會在那裡。公司和國庫券。 我確實認為這有點。

But again, we do with member for clients. So we are a large market behaviors in both the mortgage for clients, more credit than treasuries. And secondly, to Richard, who will difference probably other people just just trading for their own account.

但同樣，我們為客戶提供會員服務。 所以我們是一個大的市場行為，在為客戶提供抵押貸款方面，比國庫券更多的信貸。 其次，對理查德來說，他可能會區別其他只是為自己的帳戶進行交易的人。

And so they both competition from our standpoint, but where they are going to do with regard to deploy more capital one and we would even deployable capital low returns. We really had to do that to service clients were very conscious that there will be competition. Both sides.

因此，從我們的角度來看，他們都是競爭者，但他們將在哪裡部署更多的資本，而我們甚至會部署低迴報的資本。 我們確實必須這樣做才能為客戶提供服務，因為我們非常清楚將會存在競爭。 雙方。

Jeremy said you'll be said here are 10 years ago talking about the electronification of the business and we keep up with them. So far, we have.

傑里米說，你會說這是 10 年前談論的業務電子化，我們跟上了他們的腳步。 到目前為止，我們已經做到了。

Got it. And just one quick one and Jamie, you mentioned two destocking at some point before the REPO sort of market spike at the end of September. You could give us your perspective on this, the risk of market liquidity shock as we move into year end, how the overview on how quickly Fed should we calibrate QTL, it actually still QT.

知道了。 傑米，您提到在 9 月底 REPO 市場飆升之前的某個時間點進行了兩次去庫存。 您可以向我們提供您對此的看法，即進入年底時市場流動性衝擊的風險，以及聯準會應該以多快的速度校準 QTL（實際上仍然是 QT）的概述。

I think you've kind of answered your own question. In other words, like the argument out there is that the repo spike that we saw at the end of this quarter, it was an indication that maybe the market is approaching that lowers comfortable level that's been heavily speculated about.

我想你已經回答了你自己的問題。 換句話說，就像我們在本季末看到的回購激增的爭論一樣，這表明市場可能正在接近降低人們廣泛猜測的舒適水平。

And recognizing that that number's probably hire and driven by, you know, the evolution of firms, liquidity requirements as as opposed to some of the more traditional measures. And outside point is just another reason why it's important to look at the whole framework holistically.

並且認識到這個數字可能是由僱用和公司發展、流動性需求（而不是一些更傳統的衡量標準）所驅動的。 外在觀點是從整體來看整個框架很重要的另一個原因。

When we think about the regulatory response to the events of two strings ago, um, you know, you don't want those types of spikes and raises some questions about why there isn't more readiness to deploy into those types of disruptions, albeit at this one was relatively minor.

當我們考慮對兩個字串之前的事件的監管反應時，嗯，你知道，你不希望出現這些類型的峰值，並提出一些問題，為什麼沒有更多的準備來部署這些類型的中斷，儘管在這一點上，這一點相對較小。

But in any case, when you put all that together, it would seem to add some way to the notion that maybe QT should be wound down. And that seems to be increasingly that consensus that that's going to get announced at some point in the fourth quarter.

但無論如何，當你把所有這些放在一起時，似乎會在某種程度上增加「QT 也許應該被關閉」的想法。 這似乎越來越成為共識，這將在第四季度的某個時候宣布。

So finally point was if you play that you threw a residual headwind for a system wide deposit growth, which gets removed. And that's one of the reasons that we feel that we're probably in the trough of our deposit balances at the level of insight.

所以最後一點是，如果你玩遊戲，你就會為系統範圍內的存款成長帶來殘餘阻力，而這種阻力會被消除。 這就是我們認為我們的存款餘額可能處於洞察力低谷的原因之一。

I just wanted a couple of policy things here. I'm not actually sure they can actually do that because you have inflationary factors out there, partially driven by QE and also looking to volatility is not a risk to JP. Morgan. It's a risk to the system.

我只是想了解一些政策。 我實際上不確定他們是否真的能做到這一點，因為存在通膨因素，部分是由量化寬鬆推動的，而且波動性對日本來說並不構成風險。摩根. 這對系統來說是一個風險。

And with banks have I already mentioned the constraining balance sheet a little bit. So the banks will have trillions of dollars of cash and unable to deploy the repo markets. And I had a good policy. I think that every time that happens, you can do it very safely, fully cloud is all things like that. Provide Ryco, flexible financing marketplace that happens to finish this debt but every time that we've got becomes a policy issue that every time they will cause some kind of fluctuation of the market, people panic and the Fed's going to stop building provides the inflator environment going forward.

對於銀行，我已經提到了一些限制性的資產負債表。 因此，銀行將擁有數兆美元的現金，但無法部署回購市場。 我有一個很好的政策。 我認為每次發生這種情況時，你都可以非常安全地完成，完全雲端就是這樣。 提供Ryco，靈活的融資市場，恰好可以完成這筆債務，但每次我們遇到的問題都會成為一個政策問題，每次它們都會引起市場的某種波動，人們會感到恐慌，美聯儲將停止提供充氣機未來的環境。

So I think you'll be very thoughtful about there's no, that's why we do think they should look at calibrating your LSORECLOR. and CYT., we will only see, particularly for this. So my view is it is going to happen again. I can't tell you exactly one broad-based win by be surprised with doesn't happen again.

所以我認為你會非常深思熟慮，這就是為什麼我們認為他們應該考慮校準你的 LSORECLOR。和 CYT.，我們只會看到，特別是對於這一點。 所以我的觀點是這種情況還會再發生。 我無法確切地告訴你，一場令人驚訝的廣泛勝利不會再發生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

謝謝。 我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。 您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning. So can you hear me? Hello?

嗨，早安。 那你聽得到我說話嗎？ 你好？

Whenever you.

每當你。

Can you hear me? Okay.

你聽得到我嗎？ 好的。

Yes, we can hear you are going to hear us.

是的，我們可以聽到您會聽到我們的聲音。

Thank you. And so one for Jeremy one for Amy, Jeremy and Jamie, sorry about the NII question I'm going to have, but it is more than happy revenue. So I kind of care about it. So what I'm thinking about that, you know that the trough and then the build up on QT ending deposit growth.

謝謝。 因此，傑里米(Jeremy) 的一份，艾米(Amy)、傑里米(Jeremy) 和傑米(Jamie) 的一份，對於我將要提出的NII 問題感到抱歉，但這不僅僅是令人高興的收入。 所以我有點關心它。 所以我的想法是，你知道，QT 的低潮和隨後的累積結束了存款成長。

So that's a part of the calculation for our improvement as we go into 2025 right, I should I can embed that outlook is right, and that's embedded in how you're thinking about it. I know you don't mind number from new for NIM for 2025, but it is that right?

因此，這是我們進入 2025 年時改進計算的一部分，我應該可以將這種前景嵌入到你的想法中，這是正確的。 我知道您不介意 2025 年 NIM 的新數字，但事實是這樣嗎？

Yes. In other words, it goes back to my prior point. And the point on so that I had in the prepared remarks about the consumer deposit balances in particular, that range of different offsetting factors right now, right. You've got the yield curve on. You've got scarred revolve. You've got balances and in our balances have been ahead and we now see it as neutral and they could potentially be Continental.

是的。 換句話說，這又回到了我之前的觀點。 我在準備好的關於消費者存款餘額的評論中提到了這一點，特別是現在一系列不同的抵消因素，對吧。 你已經得到了殖利率曲線。 你的旋轉傷痕累累。 你有餘額，在我們的餘額中一直領先，我們現在認為它是中性的，它們可能是大陸集團的。

And you know later that is on what the potential tailwind. one of the potential reasons for that on site fixed rate asset MX starting to flow through a little bit lower on an eye on us to enjoy Jamie and a little bit more. I do want to make a point that I didn't get to 28 previously, which is there a reason that we emphasized the implied fourth quarter run rate for the markets on I in the presentation, which is that if you take that a new annual was it gives you a launch point run rate, which is significantly higher than what's currently in the consensus.

稍後你就會知道這是什麼潛在的順風車。 現場固定利率資產 MX 開始流動的潛在原因之一是專注於我們享受傑米和更多。 我確實想指出一點，我之前沒有達到 28，這就是我們在演示中強調 I 市場隱含的第四季度運行率的原因，也就是說，如果您將其視為新的年度它為您提供了啟動點運行率，該運行率明顯高於目前的共識。

And obviously, what we've seen this year, and I'll give you a concise version of my usual speeds, the changes in our markets and I are almost solid bottom line neutral and offset in an IRB. But for the market, because I'm trying to help you guys with your models.

顯然，我們今年所看到的情況，我將向您提供我通常速度的簡明版本，我們市場的變化，我幾乎是堅實的底線中立和抵消IRB。 但對於市場來說，因為我正在努力幫助你們建立模型。

I would just encourage you to recognize what that launch point as a number of cards that are in the curve, the fact that that number has historically and the recent past been quite liability sensitivity, you can draw your own conclusions about what that should mean again shouldn't change the overall revenue transportation is just the balance sheet and then just fake of helping you tidy up models. I wanted to make that point.

我只是鼓勵您認識到該啟動點是曲線中的許多牌，事實上，該數字在歷史上和最近的過去一直相當敏感，您可以再次得出自己的結論，這意味著什麼不應該改變整體收入運輸只是資產負債表，然後只是幫你整理模型的假象。我想強調這一點。

Daniel's comments since September were on NI in total or NIIX. market CardioSCORE that.

Daniel 自 9 月以來的評論總計為 NI 或 NIIX。市場 CardioSCORE 認為。

Both our core and IRIX. So again, reiterating at the time the '24 concern, this was not in that 91.5 to '25 consensus was 90 on NI acts. And our point was that that number, which remains an asset-sensitive number, they indicated an interferon near the current consensus as we see it for NIX. markets is 87. And as we've noted, that's closer, albeit maybe still a little bit toppy.

我們的核心和 IRIX。 因此，再次重申當時對 24 年的擔憂，這並不是 91.5 到 25 年對 NI 行為達成的共識是 90。 我們的觀點是，這個數字仍然是一個資產敏感數字，他們表明幹擾素接近當前的共識，正如我們對 NIX 所看到的那樣。市場指數為 87。

Okay. And then one for Jamie. Jamie, we did talk already quite a bit about the capital that you have capital and store. Just wanted to understand how you see talking about that opportunity set that's in front of you with regard to using it for a potentially portfolio acquisitions.

好的。 然後是傑米的一張。 傑米，我們確實已經談過很多關於你擁有的資本和儲存的資本。 只是想了解您如何看待談論您面前的機會集，並將其用於潛在的投資組合收購。

I realize that deposits are not on the docket, but we all know there's portfolios out there that might be looking for home. And could you give us a sense as to how interested you might be in acquiring assets at this stage?

我意識到存款不在清單上，但我們都知道有一些投資組合可能正在尋找歸宿。 您能否告訴我們您對現階段收購資產的興趣有多大？

Yes. So it averages or the Ashes acquisition to me, I always want our people are looking at those things and thinking about those things in and being. But if you listen to what we're saying about my question about the world and that we it's hard for me to say that we could have been marketed by credit assets, what about house vice president of our Telenav upgrades and creating a benefit to help clients.

是的。 所以對我來說，收購灰燼的平均水平是，我總是希望我們的員工能夠關注這些事物並思考這些事物的存在。 但如果你聽聽我們對我關於世界的問題的看法，我很難說我們可以透過信貸資產進行行銷，那麼我們的 Telenav 升級和創造福利來幫助的眾議院副總裁呢？

That's a whole different matter because when it comes to clients, we earn credit asset spread and we really have other stuff that built into our bankers can deploy capital that way. Of course, we don't we won't do more in our CIO. can deploy capital in multiple ways. We will probably do more and we ask all Telemark and we do more affordable housing read more into we're actually quite comfortable.

這是完全不同的事情，因為當涉及客戶時，我們賺取信貸資產利差，而且我們的銀行家確實擁有其他內建的東西可以以這種方式部署資本。 當然，我們不會讓 CIO 做更多的事情。可以透過多種方式配置資本。 我們可能會做更多，我們要求所有泰勒馬克人，我們會提供更多經濟適用房，並更多地了解我們實際上很舒服。

And yes, if we can find ways to deploy capital, we would be happy to do that. I will put us in a crisis calibrated and label credit card, primarily, although to a stretch.

是的，如果我們能找到部署資本的方法，我們會很樂意這樣做。 我將把我們置於一場危機之中，主要是對信用卡進行校準和貼上標籤，儘管有一定程度的延長。

I'm just wondering about in a private label credit card, for example, is that something that would help clients,

例如，我只是想知道自有品牌信用卡是否可以幫助客戶，

But with no c hance, but have you been having a very important for? I say that I will tell the management team second. Yes, me. I mean, we've done five away, but nobody really has been the I have a lot of issues, but is it possible to sell these different one day difference I think is possible that I want to cut it off to a very late as we Jamie, not the clearly the world changed for you to change. But right now, I would say no, there's no chance.

但沒有機會，但你有過一個非常重要的事情嗎？ 我說我先告訴管理團隊。 是的，我。 我的意思是，我們已經完成了五場比賽，但沒有人真正做到了，我有很多問題，但是是否有可能出售這些不同的一日差價，我認為我可能想在很晚的時候將其切斷我們傑米，顯然世界並沒有因為你而改變。 但現在我會說不，沒有機會。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you. Our final question will come from Saul Martinez with AT&T SBC. Your line is open.

謝謝。 我們的最後一個問題將由 AT&T SBC 的 Saul Martinez 提出。 您的線路已開通。

Diabetic '25, but I did want to delve into the kind of how to think about your deposit margin in volume dynamics in the CCB. over the next few years and have seen a decent amount of pressure in the deposit margin to six down about 30 basis points from deposit balances have come down to put some pressure on deposit.

糖尿病 '25，但我確實想深入研究如何考慮 CCB 交易量動態中的存款保證金。未來幾年，存款保證金將面臨相當大的壓力，存款餘額將下降6個基點約30個基點，這給存款帶來了一定的壓力。

M&i deposit margins are still well above where they were when rates were at levels that are consistent with where the forward curve is now has been going. So I guess, how do we think about both volume and margin dynamics if rates do come down to levels that are consistent with the forward curve?

M&I 存款利潤率仍遠高於利率水準與遠期曲線目前走勢一致時的水準。 所以我想，如果利率確實下降到與遠期曲線一致的水平，我們如何考慮交易量和保證金動態？

I know the forward curve is likely going to be willing, but that's the reference point we have. And conversely no volume offset. You mentioned, Jeremy retail deposits become a tailwind, I guess home, which would go they see, especially as you or, you know, expecting to gain quite a bit of market share in retail deposits. So just you just give us a sense of sort of pushing COVID dynamics that really helped drive the deposit devalued by the franchise?

我知道遠期曲線可能會願意，但這是我們所擁有的參考點。 相反，沒有音量偏移。 你提到，傑里米零售存款成為一股順風，我猜是回家，他們會看到這一點，特別是當你或你知道，期望在零售存款中獲得相當多的市場份額時。 那麼，您只是給我們一種推動新冠動態的感覺，這確實有助於推動特許經營權貶值？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So I think you've laid out your the building blocks there already. Just for simplicity, I'm going to trend as your question without referring to the disclosed our CCB. deposit margin number, just because that number is obviously the combination of the rate paid on deposits and the internal FTP. into that.

是的。 謝謝你的提問。 所以我認為你已經在那裡佈置了你的建造模組。 為了簡單起見，我將按照您的問題進行趨勢分析，而不會提及我們揭露的 CCB。存款保證金數字，因為這個數字顯然是存款利率和內部 FTP 的組合。進入那個。

And that is a complicated thing that evolves as a function of the mine slowing of the betas and other things. So I think it's actually more helpful to get this simply from a from my perspective, I'm looking at the evolution of the rate paid in the context of the policy rate roughly and to set aside duration management and all that.

這是一件複雜的事情，它隨著礦山貝塔測試和其他因素的放緩而演變。 因此，我認為，從我的角度來看，簡單地了解這一點實際上更有幫助，我正在大致考慮政策利率背景下支付利率的演變，並將久期管理等放在一邊。

We see as we've been saying for awhile that the show deposit margin defined for these purposes or simply the difference between the policy rate and the weighted average rate paid to the consumer deposits was unsustainably high.

我們看到，正如我們一段時間以來一直所說的那樣，為這些目的而定義的顯示存款保證金，或者僅僅是政策利率與支付給消費者存款的加權平均利率之間的差異過高，不可持續。

And that was going to have to correct one way or the other, either our deposits were going to reprice at the product level through checking and savings and or we were going to see a ton of internal migration, i. e growth in the CDMAX. and or we would see lower policy rate.

這必須以某種方式進行糾正，要么我們的存款將通過支票和儲蓄在產品層面重新定價，要么我們將看到大量的內部遷移，即。 CDMAX 的成長。或者我們會看到更低的政策利率。

So as we sit here right now, of course, we make pricing decisions in the context of market competition at any given moment, I'm looking at what the environment is for deposits, but it does we have not needed to reprice in order to retain primary bank relationships, which was always our core strategy. We were never going to chase sort of the hot money at the margin.

因此，當我們現在坐在這裡時，當然，我們在任何特定時刻都在市場競爭的背景下做出定價決策，我正在研究存款的環境，但我們確實不需要重新定價來保留主要銀行關係，這始終是我們的核心策略。 我們永遠不會以邊際利潤追逐某種熱錢。

We have leaned in heavily to CDs and gotten to the current level of CDMAX., and that's been a good strategy. And from where we sit now, we now have the margin coming down as a result of the policy rate coming down.

我們已經嚴重依賴 CD 並達到了 CDMAX 目前的水平，這是一個很好的策略。 從我們現在的情況來看，由於政策利率下降，我們的利潤率正在下降。

It seems that that puts us in a pretty comfortable position from a pricing perspective. We think the CDMX. has probably peaked now on the way down. It's not going to go back down to zero or it was at the beginning of the cycle. That's an important thing to realize all else equal, that creates a little bit of margin compression.

從定價角度來看，這似乎讓我們處於一個相當舒適的位置。 我們認為 CDMX。現在可能已經在下降過程中達到頂峰。 它不會回到零或處於週期的開始。 在其他條件相同的情況下，這是一件很重要的事情，這會產生一點利潤壓縮。

And then through all of that, obviously a lower yield and environment should mean that there's a little bit less outflow from consumer deposits. As I mentioned, we're seeing a lot less yield seeking behavior so that when you overlay onto that, what you mentioned, which is our long-term share growth in CCB deposits, Anios, Wal-Mart as a function of the brand strategy and the buildout out.

經過所有這些，顯然較低的收益率和環境應該意味著消費者存款的流出會減少。 正如我所提到的，我們看到追求收益的行為少了很多，所以當你疊加到這一點時，你提到的，這是我們在建行存款、Anios、沃爾瑪的長期份額增長，作為品牌戰略的函數和擴建。

And the fact that, you know, only about a quarter of our top 125 markets and CCBR. at that 15% share numbers to we believe there's big opportunity to grow the rest of it and be on track to the type of like average annual share growth of these.

事實上，您知道，我們的 125 個頂級市場和 CCBR 中只有大約四分之一。就這 15% 的份額而言，我們相信有很大的機會來成長其餘部分，並有望實現這些份額的平均年增長率。

That's how you kind of assemble a tailwind from normalized deposit margin and balanced growth in consumer chip.

這就是如何從正常化的存款保證金和消費晶片的平衡成長中獲得推動力。

Correct me if you think I'm wrong, the abnormal time period has been raised for between 0% and 1% or 2% other than that. If you look at if you were going to say what our normal deposit margins in the normal Daisy business, forget people going to lose money. If that happens is 2% to 2.5%. I'm sorry, could you kind of flavor?

如果您認為我錯了，請糾正我，異常時間段已提高到 0% 到 1% 或 2% 之間。 如果你想知道我們在正常雛菊業務中的正常存款保證金是多少，請忘記人們會賠錢。 如果發生這種情況，則為 2% 至 2.5%。 對不起，你能嚐嚐味道嗎？

Okay. So the telco from. So it sounds like a little bit above that, but there's still some pressure. But later on, you're not dramatically above those levels were either way.

好的。 所以電信從。 所以聽起來好像有點高了，但還是有點壓力。 但後來，無論哪種方式，你都不會顯著高於這些水平。

We're going to deliver good returns and business development. Banking and Wealth Management were growing market share rebate. And when we build branches and stuff like that, we know does it assume current margins we look at would be normal margins over time. You were very current. I will do very most industry all funded.

我們將帶來良好的回報和業務發展。 銀行和財富管理的市佔率回扣不斷增長。 當我們建立分支機構和類似的東西時，我們知道它是否假設我們所看到的當前利潤率隨著時間的推移將是正常的利潤率。你非常流行。 我將做大部分行業的全部資助。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. That's all I got.

好的。 這很有幫助。 謝謝。 這就是我所得到的。

Thanks, Al. Thanks, everyone, and thank you, terrific.

謝謝，艾爾。 謝謝大家，謝謝你們，太棒了。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。 此時您可以斷開連線並好好休息一天。