摩根大通 (JPM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, welcome to JPMorgan Chase's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

早安，女士們先生們，歡迎參加摩根大通 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded.

此通話正在錄音。

Your line will be muted for the duration of the call.

在通話期間，您的線路將被靜音。

We will now go live to the presentation.

我們現在將直播演示。

The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website.

該簡報可在摩根大通的網站上查看。

Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements.

請參閱後面有關前瞻性陳述的免責聲明。

Please stand by.

請稍候。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum.

現在，我想把電話轉給摩根大通董事長兼執行長傑米戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）；和財務長傑里米·巴納姆。

Mr Barnum, please go ahead.

巴納姆先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good morning everyone.

謝謝大家，早安。

Starting on page 1, the firm reported net income of $12.9 billion EPS of $4.37, on revenue of $43.3 billion with an ROTCE of 19%.

從第一頁開始，該公司報告淨利潤為 129 億美元，每股收益 4.37 美元，收入為 433 億美元，ROTCE 為 19%。

Touching on a couple of highlights.

談到幾個亮點。

In CCB, we ranked number one in retail deposit share for the fourth straight year.

建行零售存款佔比連續第四年排名第一。

In CIB, both IB fees and markets revenue were notably up year on year reflecting strength across the franchise.

在CIB，IB費用和市場收入較去年同期均顯著成長，反映出整個特許經營權的實力。

In AWM, we had record quarterly revenues and record long term flows.

在 AWM 中，我們創下了創紀錄的季度收入和創紀錄的長期流量。

Now turning to page 2 for the firm wide results.

現在翻到第 2 頁查看公司的廣泛結果。

The firm reported revenue of $43.3 billion, up $2.6 billion or 6% year on year.

該公司報告營收為 433 億美元，年增 26 億美元，即 6%。

NII ex markets was up $274 million or 1% driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvestment, higher revolving balances in card and higher wholesale deposit balances, predominantly offset by lower deposit balances in banking and wealth management and deposit margin compression.

受資產負債表組合和證券再投資、銀行卡循環餘額增加和批發存款餘額增加的影響，NII 前市場增長了2.74 億美元，即1%，但主要被銀行和財富管理存款餘額下降以及存款保證金壓縮所抵消。

NII ex markets was up $1.8 billion or 17%.

NII 離岸市場上漲 18 億美元，成長 17%。

But excluding the prior year net investment securities losses, it was up 10% on higher asset management and investment banking fees.

但不包括上一年的淨投資證券損失，由於資產管理和投資銀行費用增加，該數字增長了 10%。

In markets revenue was up $535 million or 8% year on year.

市場營收年增 5.35 億美元，即 8%。

Expenses of $22.6 billion were up $808 million or 4% year on year, driven by compensation including revenue related compensation and growth in employees partially offset by lower legal expense.

費用為 226 億美元，年增 8.08 億美元，即 4%，這主要是由於薪酬（包括與收入相關的薪酬）以及員工人數的增長（部分被法律費用下降所抵消）所推動。

And credit costs were $3.1 billion, reflecting net charge offs of $2.1 billion, and then that reserve $1 billion which included $882 million in consumer, primarily in card and $144 million in wholesale.

信貸成本為 31 億美元，反映出 21 億美元的淨沖銷，然後是 10 億美元的儲備金，其中包括 8.82 億美元的消費者（主要是信用卡）和 1.44 億美元的批發成本。

That charge offs were up $590 million year on year, predominantly driven by card.

沖銷額比去年增加了 5.9 億美元，主要是由信用卡推動的。

On the balance sheet and capital on page 3.

在第 3 頁的資產負債表和資本上。

We ended the quarter with CET1 ratio of 15.3% flat versus the prior quarter, as net income and OCI gains were offset by capital distributions and higher RWA.

本季末，我們的 CET1 比率為 15.3%，與上一季持平，因為淨利潤和 OCI 收益被資本分配和更高的 RWA 所抵消。

This quarter's RWA reflects higher lending activity as well as higher client activity and market moves on the trading side.

本季的 RWA 反映了較高的貸款活動以及較高的客戶活動和交易方面的市場趨勢。

We had $6 billion of net common share repurchases this quarter which in part reflects the deployment of the proceeds from the share from the sale of Visa shares as we have previously mentioned.

本季我們進行了 60 億美元的淨普通股回購，這部分反映了我們先前提到的出售 Visa 股票所得收益的部署。

Now, let's go to our businesses starting with CCB on page 4.

現在，讓我們從第 4 頁的 CCB 開始討論我們的業務。

CCB reported net income of $4 billion on revenue of $17.8 billion which was down 3% year on year.

建行報告淨利為40億美元，營收為178億美元，年減3%。

In banking and wealth management, revenue was down 11% year on year, reflecting deposit margin compression and lower deposits, partially offset by growth and wealth management revenue.

在銀行和財富管理方面，營收年減11%，反映出存款利潤率壓縮和存款減少，但部分被成長和財富管理收入所抵銷。

Average deposits were down 8% year on year and 2% sequentially.

平均存款年減 8%，季減 2%。

We are seeing a slowdown in customer yield seeking activity including in CD volumes and expect deposits to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year.

我們發現客戶尋求收益的活動有所放緩，包括存款準備金交易量，並預計今年剩餘時間存款將相對持平。

Client investment assets were up 21% year on year driven by market performance.

受市場表現帶動，客戶投資資產年增21%。

And we continue to see strong referrals of new wealth management clients from our branch network.

我們繼續看到來自我們分行網路的新財富管理客戶的大力推薦。

In home lending, revenue was up 3% year on year driven by higher NII, partially offset by lower servicing and production revenue.

在房屋貸款方面，由於NII增加，營收年增3%，但部分被服務和生產收入下降所抵銷。

Turning to card services and auto, revenue was up 11% year on year, driven by higher card NII and higher revolving balances.

在卡片服務和汽車方面，由於卡片 NII 和循環餘額增加，收入同比增長 11%。

Card outstandings were up 11% due to strong account acquisition and the continued normalization of revolve.

由於強勁的客戶獲取和 Revolve 的持續正常化，信用卡未償餘額增加了 11%。

And then auto, originations were $10 billion down 2% while maintaining strong margins and high quality credit.

然後是汽車，發起額為 100 億美元，下降 2%，同時保持強勁的利潤率和高品質的信貸。

Expenses of $9.6 billion were up 5% year on year, predominantly driven by higher field and technology compensation as well as growth in marketing.

費用為 96 億美元，年增 5%，主要是由於現場和技術補償的提高以及行銷的成長。

In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.8 billion driven by card and reflected net charge offs of $1.9 billion of $520 million year on year.

就本季的信貸表現而言，信用卡驅動的信貸成本為 28 億美元，反映了年比 5.2 億美元的淨沖銷額 19 億美元。

And in that reserve build of $876 million predominantly from higher revolving balances.

其中 8.76 億美元的儲備金主要來自較高的循環餘額。

Next, the commercial and investment bank on page 5.

接下來是第 5 頁的商業和投資銀行。

The CIB reported net income of $5.7 billion on revenue of $17 billion. IB

CIB 報告淨利潤為 57 億美元，營收為 170 億美元。 IB

fees were up 31% year on year and we ranked number one with year-to-date wallet share of 9.1% and advisory fees were up 10% benefiting from the closing of a few large deals.

費用年增 31%，我們以 9.1% 的錢包份額排名第一，受益於幾筆大型交易的完成，諮詢費增長了 10%。

Underwriting fees were up meaningfully with that up 56% and equity up 26%, primarily driven by favorable market conditions.

承銷費用顯著上漲，其中上漲了 56%，股本上漲了 26%，這主要是受到有利的市場條件的推動。

In light of the positive momentum throughout the year, we're optimistic about our pipeline.

鑑於全年的積極勢頭，我們對我們的管道感到樂觀。

But the M&A regulatory environment and geopolitical situation are continued sources of uncertainty.

但併購監管環境和地緣政治局勢仍是不確定性的來源。

Payments revenue was $4.4 billion, up 4% year on year, driven by fee growth and higher deposit balances largely offset by margin compression.

支付收入為 44 億美元，年增 4%，主要受到費用增長和存款餘額增加的推動，但大部分被利潤率壓縮所抵消。

Moving to markets, total revenue was $7.2 billion, up 8% year on year.

轉向市場，總收入為 72 億美元，較去年同期成長 8%。

Fixed income was flat, reflecting outperformance in currencies in emerging markets and lower revenue and rates.

固定收益持平，反映了新興市場貨幣的優異表現以及較低的收入和利率。

Equities was up 27%, reflecting strong performance across regions, largely driven by a supportive trading environment in the US and increased late quarter activity in Asia.

股市上漲 27%，反映了各地區的強勁表現，這主要是受到美國有利的交易環境和亞洲季度末活動增加的推動。

Security services revenue was $1.3 billion, up 9% year on year, largely driven by fee growth on higher market levels and volumes.

安全服務收入為 13 億美元，年增 9%，主要受到市場水平和交付量提高的費用成長所推動。

Expenses of $8.8 billion were down 1% year on year, with lower legal expense predominantly offset by higher revenue related compensation and growth in employees as well as higher technology spend.

費用為 88 億美元，年減 1%，法律費用的減少主要被收入相關薪酬的增加、員工的成長以及技術支出的增加所抵銷。

Average banking and payments loans were down 2% year on year and down 1% sequentially.

平均銀行和支付貸款年減 2%，較上季下降 1%。

In the middle market and large corporate client segments, we continue to see softness in both new loan demand and revolver utilization in part due to clients access to receptive capital markets.

在中型市場和大型企業客戶群中，我們繼續看到新貸款需求和循環利用都疲軟，部分原因是客戶進入接受資本市場的機會。

In multi family, while we are seeing encouraging signs in loan originations as long term rates fall, we expect overall growth to remain muted in the near term as originations are offset by payoff activity.

在多戶家庭中，雖然隨著長期利率下降，我們看到貸款發放方面出現了令人鼓舞的跡象，但我們預計短期內整體增長將保持溫和，因為貸款發放被還款活動所抵消。

Average client deposits were up 7% year on year and 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth from large corporates and payments and security services.

平均客戶存款年增 7%，季增 3%，主要受到大型企業以及支付和安全服務成長的推動。

Finally, credit costs were $316 million driven by higher net lending activity, including in markets and downgrades partially offset by improved macroeconomic variables.

最後，信貸成本為 3.16 億美元，原因是淨貸款活動增加，包括市場和評級下調，但宏觀經濟變數改善部分抵消了這一影響。

Then to complete our lines of business, AWM on page 6.

然後完成我們的業務範圍，第 6 頁的 AWM。

Asset and wealth management reported net income of $1.4 billion with pretax margin of 33%.

資產和財富管理淨利潤為 14 億美元，稅前利潤率為 33%。

For the quarter, revenue of $5.4 billion was up 9% year on year, driven by growth and management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows, investment valuation gains compared to losses in the prior year, and higher brokerage activity partially offset by deposit margin compression.

本季營收為54 億美元，年增9%，這是由於平均市場水準提高和強勁的淨流入帶來的成長和管理費、與上一年虧損相比的投資估值收益以及經紀活動的增加部分抵銷了這一增長和管理費。

Expenses of $3.6 billion were up 16% year on year, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including revenue related compensation and continued growth in our private banking advisor teams as well as higher distribution fees and legal expense.

費用為 36 億美元，年增 16%，主要是由於薪酬上漲，包括與收入相關的薪酬和我們私人銀行顧問團隊的持續增長，以及更高的分銷費和法律費用。

For the quarter, long term net inflows were $72 billion led by fixed income and equities.

本季度，長期淨流入為 720 億美元，其中固定收益和股票為主。

And in liquidity, we saw net inflows of $34 billion. AUM

在流動性方面，我們看到淨流入 340 億美元。資產管理規模

of $3.9 trillion and client assets of $5.7 trillion were both up 23% driven by higher market levels and continued net inflows.

在市場水準提高和持續淨流入的推動下，3.9 兆美元的客戶資產和 5.7 兆美元的客戶資產均成長了 23%。

And finally, loans were up 2% quarter on quarter, and deposits were up 4% quarter on quarter.

最後，貸款較上季成長 2%，存款較上季成長 4%。

Turning to corporate on page 7.

轉向第 7 頁的公司。

Corporate reported net income of $1.8 billion.

公司報告淨利潤為 18 億美元。

Revenue was $3.1 billion, up $1.5 billion year on year.

營收為31億美元，年增15億美元。

NII was $2.9 billion, up $932 million year on year, predominantly driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvestment including from prior quarters.

NII 為 29 億美元，年增 9.32 億美元，主要受到資產負債表組合和證券再投資（包括前幾季）的影響。

NIR was a net gain of $155 million compared with a net loss of $425 million in the prior year, predominantly driven by lower net investment securities losses this quarter.

NIR 淨收益為 1.55 億美元，而上一年淨虧損為 4.25 億美元，主要是由於本季淨投資證券虧損減少。

Expenses of $589 million were down $107 million year on year.

費用為 5.89 億美元，年減 1.07 億美元。

To finish up, let's turn to the outlook on page 8.

最後，讓我們來看看第 8 頁的展望。

We now expect 2024 NII ex markets to be approximately $91.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $92.5 billion.

我們現在預計 2024 年除市場外的 NII 約為 915 億美元，NII 總額約為 925 億美元。

Our outlook for adjusted expense is now about $91.5 billion.

我們目前調整後費用的預期約為 915 億美元。

And given where we are in the year, we included on the page, the implied fourth quarter guidance for NII and adjusted expense.

考慮到我們今年的情況，我們在頁面上包含了隱含的第四季度 NII 指導和調整後的費用。

And note that the NII numbers imply about $800 million of markets NII in the fourth quarter.

請注意，NII 數字意味著第四季度市場 NII 約為 8 億美元。

On credit, we continue to expect the 2024 card net charge offer rate to be approximately 3.4%.

在信貸方面，我們繼續預期 2024 年信用卡淨收費利率約為 3.4%。

So to wrap up, we're pleased with another quarter of strong operating performance.

總而言之，我們對又一個季度的強勁營運業績感到滿意。

As we look ahead to the next few quarters, we expect results will be somewhat challenged as normalization continues, but we remain upbeat and focused on executing in order to continue delivering excellent returns through the cycle.

展望未來幾個季度，我們預計隨著正常化的繼續，業績將受到一定程度的挑戰，但我們仍然樂觀並專注於執行，以便在整個週期中繼續提供出色的回報。

And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們打開問答熱線。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，海港環球證券公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So Jeremy, as you highlighted full year NII guidance implies sizable drop in Q4 NII ex markets about 6%.

Jeremy，正如您強調的全年 NII 指引意味著第四季度 NII 市場大幅下降約 6%。

So can you just maybe discuss what are the largest drivers of the sequential decline, including any initial thoughts on deposit behavior and pricing since the 50 basis point cut.

那麼，您能否討論一下連續下降的最大驅動因素是什麼，包括自降息 50 個基點以來對存款行為和定價的任何初步想法。

And since it's related, I'll just throw out my follow up question.

既然它是相關的，我就拋出我的後續問題。

I realized the forward curve is moving around a lot, but since Dan brought it up a month ago, can you frame how you're thinking about the NII trajectory for '25?

我意識到遠期曲線變動很大，但自從 Dan 一個月前提出以來，您能否闡述一下您對 25 年 NII 軌蹟的看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure, Jim, I'll try to sort of answer both questions together the best of my ability.

是的，當然，吉姆，我會盡力回答這兩個問題。

So as we sit here today the biggest single driver is of the sequential decline is in fact that we're expecting is in fact the yield curve.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，連續下降的最大單一驅動因素實際上是我們預期的殖利率曲線。

So that yield curve has changed a little bit since Daniel made this comment at the conference earlier in the quarter, but not that significantly.

因此，自從丹尼爾在本季早些時候的會議上發表此評論以來，殖利率曲線發生了一些變化，但變化不大。

In terms of deposit balances, which is obviously another important factor here in light of that starting the cutting cycle, it feels to us like right now as I mentioned in my prepared remarks for consumer, we're pretty much in the trough right now as we speak.

就存款餘額而言，鑑於開始削減週期，這顯然是另一個重要因素，正如我在為消費者準備的講話中提到的那樣，我們現在感覺我們現在幾乎處於低谷我們說話。

When you look at yield seeking behavior that has come down quite a bit.

當你觀察尋求利益的行為時，這種行為已經下降了很多。

So that's no longer as much of a headwind, all else being equal.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這不再是一個逆風。

And then if you look at checking account balances, those have been pretty stable for some time which we see as an indication that consumers are kind of done spending on their cash buffers.

然後，如果你查看帳戶餘額，你會發現這些餘額在一段時間內一直相當穩定，我們認為這表明消費者已經完成了現金緩衝的支出。

So that's kind of supportive for consumer deposit balances.

因此，這對消費者存款餘額有一定的支持。

And in that context, the other relevant point is the CD mix, where with the rate cuts coming, we expect the CD balances to price down with pretty high betas and probably the CD mix actually peaking around now.

在這種情況下，另一個相關點是 CD 組合，隨著降息的到來，我們預計 CD 餘額的價格會隨著相當高的貝塔值而下降，並且 CD 組合可能實際上在現在達到頂峰。

And then as you move to wholesale, we've actually already been seeing a little bit of growth there.

然後，當你轉向批發時，我們實際上已經看到了一點增長。

And when you combine that with the sort of increasing view that many people in the market have.

當你將這一點與市場上許多人日益增長的觀點結合起來時。

But it's likely that the end of [QT] will be announced sometime soon, that's also a little bit supportive for deposit balances.

但 [QT] 的結束可能很快就會宣布，這也對存款餘額有一點支持。

So maybe I'll -- well, I guess then he also asked me a little bit about next year.

所以也許我會——嗯，我想他也問了我一些關於明年的事情。

So I guess one thing to say right is that we did have a sequential increase in NII this quarter.

因此，我想正確地說的一件事是，本季我們的 NII 確實出現了環比增長。

And as you may recall, at Investor Day, I said that there was some chance that we would see sequential increases, followed by sequential declines.

您可能還記得，在投資者日上，我說過我們有可能會看到連續上漲，然後連續下跌。

And that people should avoid kind of drawing the conclusion that we hit the trough when that happened.

當這種情況發生時，人們應該避免得出我們已經陷入低谷的結論。

So that's essentially exactly what we're seeing now.

所以這基本上正是我們現在所看到的。

But from where we sit now, given the yield curve, assuming the yield curve materializes obviously, we do see a pretty clear picture of sequential declines at NII ex markets.

但從我們現在的位置來看，考慮到殖利率曲線，假設殖利率曲線明顯實現，我們確實可以清楚地看到NII前市場連續下跌的情況。

But the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances, card revolve growth, and other factors can return us to sequential growth obviously.

但低谷可能會在明年年中的某個時候發生，屆時餘額、卡片循環增長和其他因素的結合可以使我們顯著恢復連續增長。

We're guessing is pretty far out in the future and we'll give you formal guidance on all this stuff next quarter.

我們猜測這在未來還很遙遠，我們將在下個季度為您提供有關所有這些內容的正式指導。

But I think that gives you a bit of a framework to work with.

但我認為這為您提供了一些可以使用的框架。

All right, thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So Jeremy, hi, how are you?

傑里米，嗨，你好嗎？

So I did want to ask on expenses just in light of some of the comments that Daniel had made recently, just noting that consensus expense forecast for next year looked a little bit too light, I believe at the time it was just below $94 billion.

因此，我確實想根據丹尼爾最近發表的一些評論來詢問費用問題，只是注意到明年的共識費用預測看起來有點太輕了，我相信當時略低於 940 億美元。

If we adjust for the one timers this year, that would suggest a core expense base, that's just below $90 billion.

如果我們對今年的一次性支出進行調整，則表明核心支出基礎略低於 900 億美元。

So a pretty healthy step up in expenses.

因此，支出的成長相當健康。

I know you've always had a strong commitment, discipline around investment.

我知道您在投資方面一直有著堅定的承諾和紀律。

Just wanted to better understand where those incremental dollars are being deployed.

只是想更了解這些增量資金的部署。

And just which investments are being prioritized in particular looking out to next year.

以及明年哪些投資將優先考慮。

Sure.

當然。

So good question.

好問題。

And I agree with your numbers.

我同意你的數字。

I agree with the way you've normalized this year for the one-time type of significant items.

我同意您今年對一次性類型的重要項目進行標準化的方式。

And also where the consensus was when Daniel made his comments and while we're at it, I would also just remind you on the NII comments at the time, the consensus for this year was $91.5 billion and for next year, it was $90 billion.

當 Daniel 發表評論時，我也想提醒大家，當時的 NII 評論是一致的，今年的共識是 915 億美元，明年的共識是 900 億美元。

So that was implying at the time a sequential decline of $1.5 billion.

因此，這在當時意味著環比下降了 15 億美元。

And it was because we thought that decline wasn't big enough that we made the comments that we made.

正是因為我們認為下降幅度還不夠大，所以我們才發表了這樣的評論。

So I'm happy to expand more on that.

所以我很高興能對此進行更多擴展。

But anyway, to expenses.

但無論如何，為了開支。

Yeah, so if you start for the sake of argument with a base of $90 billion, obviously inflation is normalizing, and obviously we're always trying to generate efficiencies to offset inflation.

是的，所以如果你為了爭論而以 900 億美元為基礎，顯然通膨正在正常化，而且顯然我們一直在努力提高效率來抵消通膨。

But you know that having been said, if you assume 3% for the sake of argument on that base, that's a few billion dollars right out of the gates, that we're working against.

但你知道，話雖如此，如果你為了論證的目的而假設 3%，那麼我們正在努力反對的就是幾十億美元。

So that's one thing.

所以這是一回事。

The other thing is that we have continued to execute on our growth strategies this year.

另一件事是我們今年繼續執行我們的成長策略。

So there's a not insignificant amount of annualization.

因此，年化金額並不小。

You can't quite see that in the fourth quarter numbers because of the seasonality of incentive comp.

由於激勵補償的季節性，您在第四季度的數字中看不到這一點。

But if you were to strip that out, you would see probably some sequential increases and so on annualization as an additional headwind.

但如果你把它剔除掉，你可能會看到一些連續的成長，年化率也是一個額外的阻力。

The other thing that's worth noting is that we do expect fees and volume related businesses to grow next year.

另一件值得注意的事情是，我們確實預計明年與費用和交易量相關的業務將會成長。

And so all else being equal, that would come with a higher expense loading.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，這將帶來更高的費用負擔。

So when you assemble all those, that goes a long way to explain why sort of that consensus number that slightly below $94 billion just seemed light.

因此，當你將所有這些匯總起來時，就可以很好地解釋為什麼略低於 940 億美元的共識數字看起來很輕。

In terms of priorities and investments, really nothing has changed, like the strategy hasn't changed, and the plans haven't changed, and we're just kind of executing with the same long term perspective that we've always had.

就優先事項和投資而言，實際上沒有任何改變，例如策略沒有改變，計劃也沒有改變，我們只是以我們一直以來的長期觀點來執行。

I would note that relative to NII, obviously, we're in the third quarter now, not the fourth quarter.

我要指出的是，相對於 NII，顯然我們現在處於第三季度，而不是第四季。

And in the old days, we didn't used to give you the guidance until Investor Day in late February.

過去，我們直到二月下旬的投資者日才會向您提供指導。

So we will give you formal expense guidance next quarter for both, well, for expenses and NII next quarter.

因此，我們將在下個季度為您提供正式的費用指導，包括費用和 NII。

But especially on expenses, we are in the middle of the budget cycle right now.

但特別是在支出方面，我們現在正處於預算週期的中間。

So we probably have a little less visibility there than we do at the margin on that NII

因此，我們在那裡的可見度可能比我們在 NII 邊緣的可見度要低一些

Can I just a view of expense a little bit.

我可以稍微了解一下費用嗎？

Like you call expenses very often, I call investments.

就像你經常所說的費用一樣，我稱之為投資。

If you actually go back to Investor Day and you'll see that we're adding private bankers in asset wealth management.

如果你真的回到投資者日，你會發現我們在資產財富管理領域增加了私人銀行家。

We're adding ETF in asset wealth management.

我們在資產理財中加入了ETF。

We're adding private bankers in international private banking.

我們正在國際私人銀行業務中增加私人銀行家。

We're growing Chase management.

我們正在發展大通管理層。

We're added some branches across the United States of America.

我們在美國各地增加了一些分店。

We think there are huge opportunities in the innovation economy that takes bankers and certain technology and stuff like that.

我們認為創新經濟有巨大的機會，需要銀行家和某些科技之類的東西。

Our goal is to gain share and everything we do, we get really good returns on it.

我們的目標是獲得份額，我們所做的一切都會獲得很好的回報。

So I look at that, these are opportunities for us.

所以我認為，這些對我們來說都是機會。

These are not expenses that we have to actually punish ourselves on and we do get and we show you kind of extensively constant productivity on various things.

這些並不是我們必須實際懲罰自己的費用，我們確實得到了這些費用，我們向您展示了在各種事情上廣泛持續的生產力。

And also AI is going to go up a little bit and I would put that as a category, just it's going to generate great stuff over time.

而且人工智慧也會有所上升，我會把它作為一個類別，隨著時間的推移，它會產生很棒的東西。

No, thank you both for the color.

不，謝謝你們的顏色。

Just a quick follow up for me.

只是對我進行快速跟進。

Just drilling down into NII, it appears you redeployed a fair amount of cash or excess reserves at the Fed into securities.

只要深入研究 NII，您似乎將聯準會的相當數量的現金或超額準備金重新部署到了證券中。

We saw the yield expand which is encouraging despite the pressure at both the long end, and SOFR contraction in the quarter.

儘管長期市場面臨壓力，且本季 SOFR 收縮，但我們看到收益率的成長令人鼓舞。

I was hoping you could just speak to your appetite to extend duration, this environment.

我希望你能說出你的胃口來延長這種環境的持續時間。

I know that you've had some aversion to that in the past.

我知道你過去對此有些厭惡。

But do you anticipate redeploying additional excess liquidity just amid the expectation for deeper rate cuts?

但您是否預計在進一步降息的預期下會重新部署額外的過剩流動性？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So on extending duration, if you know this obviously, but I just think it's important to say that all else equal, extending duration doesn't change expected NII if you assume that the policy rate follows the forwards, right?

因此，在延長久期方面，如果您顯然知道這一點，但我認為重要的是，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果您假設政策利率跟隨遠期利率，那麼延長久期不會改變預期的NII ，對嗎？

So point one.

所以第一點。

Point two, the curve remains inverted.

第二點，曲線仍然倒轉。

And so even if you don't believe that the policy rate follows the forwards.

因此，即使您不相信政策利率跟隨遠期利率。

Extending right now is actually a headwind to short term NII.

現在延長實際上對短期NII 來說是一個阻力。

Like that's not -- that wouldn't be a consideration for us either way.

不管怎樣，這都不會成為我們的考量。

But I just think that's worth saying for the broader audience, it's quite different from the situation that you have with more than

但我認為這對於更廣泛的受眾來說是值得說的，這與你所遇到的情況完全不同

--

--

6%.

6%。

So, yeah.

所以，是的。

Now, so when we think about the question of extending duration and really managing duration right now, a couple of things to say.

現在，當我們考慮延長持續時間並真正管理持續時間的問題時，有幾件事要說。

So we see a lot of different versions of duration, but one number that we disclose is the

因此，我們看到了很多不同版本的持續時間，但我們披露的一個數字是

[EAR].

[耳朵]。

When the 10-Q comes out, you'll see that that number is a little bit lower.

當 10-Q 出來時，你會發現這個數字有點低。

It'll come down from [2.8] to about [2.1], if our current estimates are correct.

如果我們目前的估計正確的話，它將從 [2.8] 下降到大約 [2.1]。

That's for a number of reasons, some of which are passive, but some of those are active choices to extend duration a little bit.

這是出於多種原因，其中一些是被動的，但其中一些是主動選擇，以延長一點持續時間。

And in the end, the choice to manage and extend duration is really about balancing the volatility of NII against protecting the company from extreme scenarios on either side.

最後，管理和延長期限的選擇實際上是為了平衡 NII 的波動性和保護公司免受雙方極端情況的影響。

And so right now, if we wanted to extend as a result of different factors, we certainly could, we have the capacity inside the portfolio.

因此，現在，如果我們因為其他因素想要擴展，當然可以，我們有投資組合內的能力。

But for now, we're comfortable with where we are.

但就目前而言，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

And the one thing I can assure you is the forward curve will not be the same forward curve in six months.

我可以向您保證的一件事是，六個月後的遠期曲線將不再是相同的遠期曲線。

Well said, well thank you so much for taking my questions.

說得好，非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

My first question and thank you very much for answering all the NII questions so far, Jeremy.

我的第一個問題是 Jeremy，非常感謝您到目前為止回答了所有 NII 問題。

It's just -- I guess another follow up as you can imagine once Daniel said what he said on stage in September, everyone's trying to figure out the over under for net interest income next year.

只是——我想你可以想像，一旦丹尼爾在九月在台上發表講話，每個人都在試圖弄清楚明年淨利息收入的上浮情況。

So maybe a two part first question.

所以也許第一個問題分為兩個部分。

The second being inspired by what Jamie just said, number one, NII is expected to be down 6% sequentially in fourth quarter.

第二個受到 Jamie 剛才所說的啟發，第一，NII 預計第四季將季減 6%。

I think year over year in '25, consensus has it down 4% from your new level.

我認為 25 年來，共識認為它比新水準下降了 4%。

So it sounds like consensus still has room to come down.

因此，聽起來共識仍有下降的空間。

And based on the forward curve, Jeremy, it could be a little bit worse year over year than the fourth quarter sequential rate.

傑里米，根據遠期曲線，年比情況可能比第四季的環比情況要差一些。

But that being said, as Jamie noted, like we have no idea what the curve is going to look like, right?

但話雖這麼說，正如傑米指出的那樣，我們不知道曲線會是什麼樣子，對吧？

I mean, it's gyrated so much.

我的意思是，它旋轉得太多了。

And so as we think about the curve, is it better for JPMorgan to have more cuts in the short end, but steepness, or less cuts, but a little bit of a flatter curve,

因此，當我們考慮曲線時，摩根大通是否應該在短期端進行更多削減，但陡峭，或者減少削減，但曲線稍微平坦一些，

Right, okay.

對了，好吧。

You threw a curveball at the end there, I wasn't expecting that to be the end of your question.

你在最後丟了一個曲線球，我沒想到這會是你問題的結束。

But let me answer the beginning of your question and then I'll also answer the end of your question.

但讓我回答你問題的開頭，然後我也會回答你問題的結尾。

So we see the current 2025 consensus for NII ex markets to be at currently at [$87 billion] which is obviously lower than it was at the conference early in the quarter.

因此，我們認為目前 2025 年 NII 前市場共識為 [870 億美元]，明顯低於本季度初會議的水平。

So we're happy to see that move a little bit more in line to us.

因此，我們很高興看到這一趨勢與我們更加一致。

That still looks a little topy, but it's definitely in the ballpark.

這看起來仍然有點誇張，但絕對在大致範圍內。

Now, that consists of -- I already mentioned previously that we sort of expect the NII trough sometime in the middle of the year.

現在，這包括——我之前已經提到過，我們預計國家資訊基礎設施的低谷會在年中的某個時候出現。

So you can kind of assemble the parts.

所以你可以組裝零件。

You've got fourth quarter run rate.

你有第四季的運行率。

You've got some sequential declines.

你有一些連續的下降。

You've got a trough in the middle of the year and you've got a rough ballpark for the full year.

年中會經歷一個低谷，全年也會有一個大致的情況。

So you can imagine that the trough probably is a little lower than those numbers.

所以你可以想像，谷值可能比這些數字低。

And then to the extent that growth revolve resumes in the back half of the year, both deposit balances and the ongoing tail wind of card revolve, although that tailwind will be a little bit less than you might have otherwise thought -- I mean, sorry a little bit less than it was this year, but still a tailwind.

然後，在今年下半年恢復成長循環的情況下，存款餘額和信用卡循環的持續順風，儘管這種順風會比你想像的要小一些——我的意思是，抱歉比今年少了一點，但仍然是順風車。

Obviously the mix of those things will play out in different ways.

顯然，這些事情的混合將以不同的方式發揮作用。

And as you point out, who knows what the yield curve will wind up doing.

正如您所指出的，誰知道收益率曲線最終會發生什麼。

But on our current assumptions, on the current yield curve, and remembering that we're in the third quarter now, so we're doing this kind of early, that's what we think.

但根據我們目前的假設，根據當前的殖利率曲線，並記住我們現在正處於第三季度，所以我們很早就這樣做了，這就是我們的想法。

Now, could I just say something.

現在，我可以說點什麼嗎？

First of all, next time, I should give a damn number.

首先，下次我應該要給出一個該死的數字。

I don't want to spend all time on these calls like going through what they're guessing what NII is going to be next year.

我不想把所有時間都花在這些電話上，例如討論他們猜測明年 NII 會是什麼。

And I just -- can I just also point out that NII all things being equal is a number, but all things are never equal.

我只是 - 我也可以指出，NII 所有事物都相等是一個數字，但所有事物永遠不會相等。

And the yield curve, if you have a recession, the effect of the yield could be very different than you have continued growth.

至於殖利率曲線，如果經濟衰退，殖利率的影響可能與持續成長的情況大不相同。

And there are decisions that are made non stop by us and the thing that happened in the marketplace.

我們不斷做出一些決定，以及市場上發生的事情。

And I just -- I think we spend too much time on just this relevancy, so you get a model and a number of your model.

我只是 - 我認為我們在這種相關性上花了太多時間，所以你得到了一個模型和多個模型。

And so it's going to be less than [$87 billion] next year.

因此明年將少於 [870 億美元]。

Probably not a lot, we don't know, and we don't know the environment.

可能不多，我們不知道，也不了解環境。

Good.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Now, to your question about the EAR.

現在，回答您關於 EAR 的問題。

So few things to say in there.

裡面沒什麼好說的。

So as I already mentioned, we -- when that comes out, it'll show a number around 2.1. A very important thing to say is as you know, the experience of this rate cycle has been that our empirical EAR is meaningfully higher than our model [DAR] which is what we disclose.

正如我已經提到的，當它發佈時，我們會顯示 2.1 左右的數字。一件非常重要的事情是，如您所知，這個利率週期的經驗是，我們的經驗 EAR 明顯高於我們揭露的模型 [DAR]。

And the main reason for that is that retail deposit betas are -- have in actuality even lower than the modeled deposit beta.

其主要原因是零售存款貝塔值實際上甚至低於模型存款貝塔值。

So as a starting point, you have to kind of adjust that EAR number to be bigger than the reported number for those and a few other reasons actually.

因此，作為起點，實際上出於這些原因和其他一些原因，您必須將該 EAR 數字調整為大於報告的數字。

There's some nuances around how the dollar, non-dollar sensitivity interact.

美元和非美元敏感性如何相互作用存在一些細微差別。

And then there's your question, which is a little bit about the front-end versus the back-end.

然後是你的問題，有點關於前端與後端。

So what you see is that actually the front-end EAR has gotten smaller and most of the EAR is now in the back-end.

所以您看到的是，實際上前端 EAR 已經變小，大部分 EAR 現在位於後端。

So it's definitely the case that all else being equal, a steeper curve is better for us.

因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，陡峭的曲線對我們來說肯定更好。

But I think what I would also say is that this kind of empirical versus theoretical adjustment is disproportionately in the front end.

但我想我還要說的是，這種經驗與理論的調整在前端是不成比例的。

So therefore, in order to answer your question, I would say yes, we want a steeper curve.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我會說是的，我們想要一條更陡峭的曲線。

But having the Fed cut more than what's currently in the yield curve is definitely at the margin for the context of next year's numbers would be a headwind for us.

但就明年的數據而言，聯準會降息幅度肯定會超過目前的殖利率曲線，這對我們來說將是一個阻力。

We remain asset sensitive to Fed cuts.

我們對聯準會降息仍保持資產敏感。

And if I can ask my second question.

我可以問第二個問題嗎？

And Jamie, I completely understand your frustration.

傑米，我完全理解你的沮喪。

And to be fair, your long term shareholders really don't care about whether it's [$87 billion] or [$85 billion] right?

公平地說，您的長期股東真的不關心它是[870 億美元]還是[850 億美元]，對嗎？

They care about your return on equity.

他們關心你的股本報酬率。

To that end, I mean, it's insane how much capital you generate each quarter, 70 -- 72 basis points this quarter.

為此，我的意思是，每個季度產生的資本量是瘋狂的，本季為 70 - 72 個基點。

And so beyond the standard boilerplate questions you're going to get on buyback and organic growth, yada, yada, dividend increases, how should we think about JPMorgan in deploying this capital?

因此，除了回購和有機成長、股利增加等標準樣板問題之外，我們應該如何考慮摩根大通如何部署這筆資本？

I mean, the world is generally your oyster, right?

我的意思是，世界通常都是你的牡蠣，對吧？

You're dominant already and you could use this capital to further enhance your business.

您已經佔據主導地位，您可以利用這筆資金進一步增強您的業務。

And again, beyond that boilerplate conversation that you always get every quarter, how should your shareholders think about how you're thinking about the opportunities to deploy this capital.

再說一次，除了每個季度都會收到的樣板對話之外，您的股東應該如何考慮您如何考慮部署這筆資本的機會。

Okay.

好的。

So first of all, when you say dominant, I'd be very careful in that.

首先，當你說占主導地位時，我會非常小心。

We've got some very tough competition.

我們面臨著非常激烈的競爭。

Different, different countries, different around the world, fintech companies, direct lenders.

不同的、不同的國家、世界各地不同的金融科技公司、直接貸款人。

And I must be -- I want to give you a very specific comment on direct lending and stuff like that.

我必須——我想就直接貸款和類似的事情給你們一個非常具體的評論。

So our goal is always to serve our clients.

因此，我們的目標始終是為客戶服務。

And when I talk about some of these expenses, that is a deployment of capital and it's a deployment in a different way cause you open branches, you initially experience an expense.

當我談論其中一些費用時，這是資本的部署，這是以不同方式進行的部署，因為你開設了分支機構，你最初會經歷一筆費用。

But down the road, the capital support the deposits.

但接下來，資本會支持存款。

The same for the innovation economy, same for private bankers, et cetera.

對於創新經濟也是如此，對於私人銀行家來說也是如此，等等。

If you look at it roughly, we have about a minimum $30 billion of excess capital.

如果粗略地看一下，我們至少有大約300億美元的過剩資本。

And for me, it's not bringing a hole in my pocket.

對我來說，這不會讓我的口袋破洞。

I look at as you own the whole company and you can properly deploy it now, is perfectly reasonable to wait.

我認為你擁有整個公司，現在就可以正確部署它，等待是完全合理的。

And I've been quite clear, I think things are the future could be quite turbulent, and asset prices in my view and in life, you've got to take a view sometimes are inflated.

我已經很清楚了，我認為未來的情況可能會相當動盪，在我看來，在生活中，資產價格有時會被誇大。

I don't know if they're extremely inflated or a little bit, but I prefer to wait.

我不知道他們是極度膨脹還是有點膨脹，但我寧願等待。

We will be able to deploy, our shareholders would be very well served by us waiting.

我們將能夠部署，我們的等待將為我們的股東帶來很好的服務。

And same thing with deploying capital, we can buy -- we could go buy $100 billion 6% mortgages, increase our net income by a couple billion tomorrow.

與部署資本一樣，我們可以購買——我們可以購買 1000 億美元的 6% 抵押貸款，明天我們的淨收入將增加數十億美元。

We don't make decisions like that.

我們不會做那樣的決定。

The most important thing we do is serve our clients well, build the technology, and do things like that.

我們所做的最重要的事情是為客戶提供良好的服務，開發技術，並做類似的事情。

And we also know what the real excess capital is yet.

我們也知道真正的過剩資本是多少。

So we're a little patient, we're going to be a little patient and wait and it'll be fine.

所以我們要有一點耐心，我們要有一點耐心，等待，一切都會好起來的。

And so that's where we are and that's not going to change.

這就是我們現在的處境，而且不會改變。

And if it changes, we'll let you know.

如果有變化，我們會通知您。

And we do talk to a lot of shareholders, and they understand buying stock back at more than 2 times tangible book value is not necessarily the best thing to do, because we think we'll have better options to redeploy it or to buyback at cheaper prices at one point.

我們確實與許多股東進行了交談，他們明白以超過有形賬面價值兩倍的價格回購股票不一定是最好的做法，因為我們認為我們將有更好的選擇來重新部署或以更便宜的價格回購某一時刻的價格。

Markets do not stay high forever.

市場不會永遠保持高位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And one last thing.

最後一件事。

Cash is a very valuable asset sometimes in a turbulent world.

在動盪的世界中，現金有時是非常有價值的資產。

And you see my friend Warren Buffett, stockpiling cash right now.

你看到我的朋友華倫巴菲特現在正在囤積現金。

I mean, people should be a little more thoughtful about how we're trying to navigate in this world and grow for the long term for our company.

我的意思是，人們應該多思考我們如何在這個世界上航行並為我們公司實現長期發展。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

格倫·肖爾，Evercore ISI。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

I'm so glad Jamie, didn't say what he was about to say because that's the answer to this question.

我很高興傑米沒有說出他要說的話，因為這就是這個問題的答案。

So we've seen a couple more banks entering partnerships with alternative managers.

因此，我們看到更多的銀行與替代管理公司建立了合作關係。

We've seen limited loan growth for a few years now.

幾年來我們看到貸款成長有限。

Market related also limited flows into fixed income funds, yet plenty of growth in private credit in general.

與市場相關的資金流入固定收益基金也受到限制，但私人信貸整體成長強勁。

And you're one of the best asset managers on the planet, but in my view less dominant in, in all things private credit.

你們是地球上最好的資產管理公司之一，但在我看來，在私人信貸的所有方面都不那麼占主導地位。

So maybe you could talk about what things you're working on and why that's too narrow of a view of your ability to serve all parts of clients lending needs, not just the, you know, the public markets and public lending side.

因此，也許您可以談論您正在做什麼，以及為什麼您對滿足客戶貸款需求的所有部分的能力的看法過於狹隘，而不僅僅是公開市場和公共貸款方面。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So let me take time to cover this one because obviously it is -- become very important.

因此，讓我花點時間來討論這個問題，因為顯然它變得非常重要。

You know, people are talking about how they're growing and partnering and things like that.

你知道，人們正在談論他們如何成長、如何合作以及諸如此類的事情。

And so the first and fore and this, I'm going to talk about very strategic and very tactical.

首先，我要談談非常戰略性和戰術性的問題。

I think they're both important.

我認為他們都很重要。

First and foremost, we are here to give our clients an agnostic view of the world and what the best products and service are for them.

首先也是最重要的，我們在這裡為我們的客戶提供一個不可知的世界觀以及什麼是最適合他們的產品和服務。

Therefore, when a client comes in, we will offer them both direct lending on ourselves and syndicated lending or other specialized kind of lending.

因此，當客戶進來時，我們將為他們提供直接貸款和銀團貸款或其他專門類型的貸款。

And they all have plus and minus.

它們都有正負。

So direct lending could be done faster, maybe simpler covenants unit charge it is more expensive and you're seeing a little things go back and forth between syndicated lending and direct lending.

因此，直接貸款可以更快地進行，也許更簡單的契約單位收費更昂貴，而且您會看到銀團貸款和直接貸款之間存在一些來回變化。

But we're going to offer the clients basically what's in their best interest and tell them what those products are across.

但我們基本上將為客戶提供最符合他們利益的產品，並告訴他們這些產品的用途。

The thing we, we mentioned before in the past that we allocated $10 billion of capital to make direct loans.

我們,我們過去提到,我們撥出100億美元的資金來進行直接貸款。

We've actually deployed a lot of capital, so it was already paid off.

我們實際上投入了大量資金，所以已經得到了回報。

So we've done so we are going to do it directly.

我們已經這樣做了，所以我們將直接這樣做。

And we are going to tend to be 20 or 30 not limited today.

今天我們的人數將趨向 20 或 30 人，不受限制。

I will say today, we're extending, we will do $500 million, we will do a [$10billion], we will do more billion, we'll do it sole handed or we'll do it partners.

我今天要說的是，我們正在擴展，我們將提供 5 億美元，我們將提供 [100 億美元]，我們將提供更多 10 億美元，我們將單獨完成，或者我們將與合作夥伴一起完成。

Very importantly, we are not going to allocate ourselves to one partner.

非常重要的是，我們不會將自己分配給一個合作夥伴。

So we have and I think we've announced a bunch of co lenders, but that just creates more flexibility and more size.

因此，我認為我們已經宣布了一批聯合貸款人，但這只會創造更大的靈活性和更大的規模。

We're not going to use that flexibility to slow it down to get permission for everybody because like I said, JP Morgan could underwrite it and syndicate and own it like a bridge loan and syndicate it after the fact.

我們不會利用這種靈活性來放慢速度以獲得每個人的許可，因為就像我所說的，摩根大通可以承銷它並聯合起來，並像過橋貸款一樣擁有它，並在事後聯合起來。

So you could, and we're going to use our own risk measures and stuff like that again, all in the service of the client and making sure we're offering them are the best thing and we're going to a different strategy.

所以你可以，我們將再次使用我們自己的風險措施和類似的東西，所有這些都是為了客戶服務，並確保我們為他們提供最好的東西，我們將採取不同的策略。

We're not going to tie ourselves exclusively to one capital provider.

我們不會將自己完全束縛於一個資本提供者。

I think that would limit what we could offer our clients and probably we could be more price competitive.

我認為這會限制我們可以為客戶提供的服務，並且可能我們可以更具價格競爭力。

We could do some very specific thing and not the solution.

我們可以做一些非常具體的事情，而不是解決方案。

That is the third party capital provider.

那就是第三方資本提供者。

That's our strategy.

這就是我們的策略。

We're going to be there, we're going to do it and we're going to do it in spite of the fact this capital arbitrary taking place.

我們會去那裡，我們會這麼做，我們會這麼做，儘管事實上這種資本任意性正在發生。

So if you look at the arbitrage today where the bank has to hold for things with the insurance guys, they are dramatically different.

因此，如果你看看今天的套利，銀行必須與保險公司持有東西，它們是截然不同的。

That's a disadvantage.

這是一個缺點。

But we've had those disadvantages in other business for a long time.

但我們在其他業務中長期存在這些劣勢。

We are going to do it right for the client.

我們將為客戶做正確的事。

Remember when we do business, the client, we also get other revenues off.

請記住，當我們與客戶開展業務時，我們還會獲得其他收入。

So it isn't just the loan.

所以這不僅僅是貸款。

We look at the whole relationship.

我們審視整個關係。

So we're quite comfortable, we can compete.

所以我們很舒服，我們可以競爭。

I just announced much bigger lending platforms, and sizes and stuff like that.

我剛剛宣布了更大的貸款平台、規模和類似的東西。

So, I hope with the pressures on me.

所以，我希望能承受壓力。

Heard this too.

也聽過這個。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for all of that.

感謝這一切。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Good morning, Jeremy and good morning, Jamie.

早安，傑里米，早安，傑米。

Jeremy, when you guys look at your current capital ratios, they're obviously very healthy.

傑里米，當你們看看你們目前的資本比率時，它們顯然非常健康。

Can you guys give us some color on the new basel three?

你們能為我們介紹一下新的巴塞爾三號嗎？

We, we don't know what the specifics are.

我們，我們不知道具體是什麼。

But as vice chair, Bar touched on some of the specifics, it looks like capital requirements for yourself and your peers will come down a fair amount from the original proposal.

但作為副主席，巴爾談到了一些具體細節，看來您自己和您的同事的資本要求將比最初的提案下降相當多。

How are you guys thinking about that?

你們覺得怎麼樣？

You have any insights on how much it may fall from, you know, the original proposal to where you are today?

您對最初的提案可能會落到今天的水平有什麼見解嗎？

Yeah, when I said we have 30 bit of excess that is assuming bar speech, the 20 goes to 12, whatever it is more, it'll be more than that because there are other factors involved.

是的，當我說假設酒吧演講時我們有 30 位多餘的內容時，20 位變成了 12 位，無論多多少，都會比這個多，因為還涉及其他因素。

Now, I was just giving the minimum excess capital in my view would be more, but it is what it is and we'll wait to see the final numbers.

現在，我只是給出了最低超額資本，在我看來會更多，但事實就是如此，我們將等待看到最終的數字。

But just maybe to give you a bit of color.

但也許只是為了給你一點色彩。

So yeah, obviously everyone paid a lot of attention to that speech.

是的，顯然每個人都非常關注那場演講。

It was an important speech, but in the end, we actually just really need to see the proposal because the details matter a lot for this stuff.

這是一次重要的演講，但最終，我們實際上只需要看看提案，因為細節對這件事非常重要。

And so our focus is on hoping to see the proposal so that we can process the detail and continue advocating as appropriate.

因此，我們的重點是希望看到該提案，以便我們能夠處理細節並繼續酌情倡導。

I know that, you know, you talk about requirements coming down relative to what was originally proposed, which is obviously true part of the speech.

我知道，你知道，你談論的是相對於最初提出的要求，這顯然是演講的真實部分。

But I do think we need to be a little bit careful not to fall into the trap of saying that that's like progress just because the original proposal was so dramatically higher than what anyone thought was reasonable.

但我確實認為我們需要小心一點，不要陷入這樣的陷阱：僅僅因為最初的提案遠遠高於任何人認為的合理水平，就說這就像進步。

And I would remind you what you obviously know that, you know, before this proposal came out, it was our position strongly felt that our then prevailing capital requirements were if anything already more than we needed.

我想提醒您的是，您顯然知道，您知道，在這項提案提出之前，我們的立場是強烈認為我們當時普遍的資本要求已經超出了我們的需要。

So, we've got a long way to go here and I think our position, which Jamie's been articulating very consistently is that they need to get it right, the right amount of work and importantly, do it holistically.

因此，我們還有很長的路要走，我認為我們的立場（傑米一直在明確闡述）是，他們需要把事情做好，做適量的工作，重要的是，全面地完成工作。

So it's not just our RWA you said it's SCB, it's

所以你說的不只是我們的RWA，它是SCB，它是

[TLAC].

[TLAC]。

So, you know, that's really what we feel strong.

所以，你知道，這就是我們強烈的感受。

We just want the numbers to be done right and justified if they had to go up, we'd be fine with that too.

我們只是希望這些數字能夠正確且合理，如果它們必須上升，我們也可以接受。

I just think they should be done with real diligence and real thought and a little bit of thought about cost benefit, what it does to the economy, what it put where it pushes lending and things like that.

我只是認為它們應該以真正的勤奮和真正的思考來完成，並稍微考慮一下成本效益、它對經濟的影響、它在推動貸款方面的作用等等。

So we, you know, we're anxiously waiting to see the actual detail because that's what's going to make all the difference.

所以我們，你知道，我們焦急地等待看到實際的細節，因為這將帶來巨大的改變。

Very good.

非常好。

And then as a follow up in, in view of this excess capital in your comments a moment ago about, you know, direct lending, you look at your current cash and marketable securities on a risk weighted asset basis.

然後，作為後續行動，鑑於您剛才關於直接貸款的評論中存在過剩資本，您會在風險加權資產的基礎上查看當前的現金和有價證券。

You, you put it in your presentation of course, $1.5 trillion average loan is $1.3 trillion.

當然，你在演講中提到，1.5 兆美元的平均貸款是 1.3 兆美元。

When everything, when the dust at, you know what your capital requirements are.

當一切塵埃落定時，你就知道你的資本需求是什麼。

Can you frame out for us?

你能為我們設計一下嗎？

Can you levering up the excess capital with more loans?

你能透過更多貸款來槓桿化過​​剩資本嗎？

Is that a path that might be considered over the next two or three years relative to where you are on a mix basis?

相對於您在混合基礎上所處的位置，這是否是未來兩三年內可能考慮的路徑？

I know you're going to grow your loans, but I'm talking about--

我知道你會增加貸款，但我說的是——

Absolutely, the lower the outcome of doing good business, we want to do good business.

當然，做好生意的結果越低，我們就越想做好生意。

If it grows our balance sheet, we're fine.

如果它能增加我們的資產負債表，那就沒問題。

And I do think Gerard, it depends a lot on what type of loans you're talking about.

我確實認為杰拉德，這在很大程度上取決於您所談論的貸款類型。

Right?

正確的？

So I think in the end as Jamie says, like is capital, we're going to deploy it ideally to grow the franchise organically.

所以我認為最終正如傑米所說，就像資本一樣，我們將理想地部署它以有機地發展特許經營權。

And that could include, you know, loans that are almost, you know, good loans on a standalone basis as well as loans that are part of an overall relationship where we're getting other revenue as part of that.

這可能包括，你知道，獨立基礎上幾乎是良好貸款的貸款，以及作為整體關係一部分的貸款，我們在其中獲得其他收入。

So it's the same strategy that we've always had, but I wouldn't think of as like excess capital to be deployed against a particular product.

因此，這與我們一直採用的策略相同，但我不認為針對特定產品部署多餘的資本。

I would think of it as, you know, it's there for a rainy day.

我認為它是為了未雨綢繆。

Let's hope the environment doesn't deteriorate a lot.

希望環境不要嚴重惡化。

But if it does, we'll be ready and there'll be opportunities hopefully to deploy it against the client franchise or against the stock and if not, you know, will return it.

但如果確實如此，我們就會做好準備，並且有機會將其部署到客戶特許經營權或股票上，如果沒有，你知道，我們將退回它。

Very good.

非常好。

Appreciate the color and candor as always.

一如既往地欣賞色彩和坦率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

So lower rates was supposed to draw a pickup in loan growth and conversion of some of these investment banking pipelines.

因此，較低的利率應該會帶動貸款成長和部分投資銀行管道的轉換。

And obviously we just had one cut it early, but any beginning signs of this in terms of the interest in borrowing more and, and a conversion of the banking pipeline?

顯然，我們只是提前削減了它，但是在藉貸更多的興趣以及銀行管道的轉換方面有任何開始的跡象嗎？

I would say that generally, no, frankly, with a couple of minor exceptions.

坦白說，我想說的是，一般來說，不，除了一些小例外。

So I think it's probably fair to say that the outperformance late in the quarter in investment banking fees was to a meaningful degree, as I mentioned, driven by DCM as well as to some degree driven by the acceleration of the closing of some M&A transactions.

因此，我認為可以公平地說，正如我所提到的，本季度末投資銀行費用的優異表現在一定程度上是由DCM 推動的，並且在某種程度上是由一些併購交易加速完成推動的。

And I do think that some of that DCM outperformance is in the sort of types of deals that are opportunistic deals that aren't in our pipeline and those are often driven by treasurers and [CFOS] sort of seeing improvement in market levels and jumping, jumping on those.

我確實認為，DCM 的一些出色表現是在一些類型的交易中，這些交易是機會主義交易，這些交易不在我們的管道中，這些交易通常是由財務主管和[首席財務官] 推動的，他們看到了市場水準的改善和跳躍，跳到那些上面。

So it's possible that that's a little bit of a consequence of the cuts.

所以這可能是削減的一點結果。

But I think I mentioned you know, we did see for example, a pickup in mortgage applications and a tiny bit of pickup and refi in our multifamily lending business, there might be some hints of more activity there.

但我想我提到過，你知道，我們確實看到了抵押貸款申請的增加以及我們的多戶貸款業務的少量增加和再融資，那裡可能有更多活動的跡象。

But, you know, these cuts were very heavily priced, right, the curve has been inverted for a long time.

但是，你知道，這些削減的代價非常高昂，對吧，曲線已經倒掛了很長一段時間。

So to a large degree, this is expected.

所以在很大程度上，這是預料之中的。

So I'm not obvious to me that you should expect immediate dramatic reactions and that's not really what we're seeing

所以我認為你不應該期待立即的戲劇性反應，而這並不是我們真正看到的

In the debt markets, you know, rates came down, spreads are quite low and markets are wide open.

你知道，在債務市場，利率下降，利差非常低，市場開放。

So it's kind of makes sense that people take advantage of that today.

所以今天人們利用這一點是有道理的。

Those conditions may not prevail be the ongoing conditions, you know, late next year.

你知道，到明年年底，這些情況可能不會持續下去。

And then specifically in the debit and credit card spend that you guys break out, you know, you had nice growth year over year, up 6% flat 2Q know there's a lot of seasonality, 2Q to 3Q I think last year it was up about 1%.

然後，特別是在你們爆發的借記卡和信用卡支出方面，你們知道，你們同比增長很好，第二季度增長了6%，知道有很多季節性因素，第二季度到第三季度我認為去年增長了大約1%。

But are you seeing any kind of changes in the consumer spend?

但您是否看到消費者支出有任何變化？

Either the mix or some signs of a slowdown later in the quarter?

是混合因素還是本季晚些時候出現的一些放緩跡象？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I think what there is to say about consumer spend is a little bit boring in a sense because what's happened is that it's become normal.

所以我認為關於消費者支出的說法在某種意義上有點無聊，因為發生的事情已經變得很正常。

So, meaning, you know, I mean, I think we're getting to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk about the pandemic, but maybe one last time, you know, one of the things that you had was that heavy rotation into T&E as people did a lot of traveling and they book cruises that they hadn't done before and everyone was going out to dinner a lot, whatever.

所以，我的意思是，我認為我們已經到了談論這一流行病不再有意義的地步，但也許是最後一次，你知道，你所經歷的事情之一是那麼沉重輪換到旅遊和娛樂領域，因為人們進行了​​大量旅行，他們預訂了以前從未做過的遊輪，而且每個人都經常出去吃飯，無論如何。

So you had the big spike in T&E the big rotation into discretionary spending and then that's now normalized.

因此，差旅費和娛樂費大幅上漲，並大量轉向可自由支配支出，然後現在已經正常化了。

And you would normally think that rotation out of discretionary into non-discretionary would be a sign of consumers battening down the hatches and getting ready for a much worse environment.

你通常會認為，從全權委託轉向非全權委託將是消費者做好準備迎接更糟糕環境的跡象。

But given the levels that it started from what we see it as is actually like normalization and inside that data, we're not seeing, you know, weakening, for example, in retail spending.

但考慮到我們所看到的實際上是正常化的水平以及數據內部的情況，我們沒有看到零售支出等方面出現疲軟。

So, overall we see the the spending patterns as being sort of solid and consistent with the narrative that the consumer on solid footing and consistent with the strong labor market and the current, you know, central case of a kind of no landing scenario economically.

因此，總體而言，我們認為支出模式是穩固的，並且與消費者基礎穩固、強勁的勞動力市場以及當前經濟上無法登陸的核心情況相一致。

But you know, obviously, as we always point out that's one scenario and there are many other scenarios.

但你知道，顯然，正如我們總是指出的那樣，這是一種情況，還有許多其他情況。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hey, Jamie, I think I've seen you comment on government this year more than any other time in your career.

嘿，傑米，我想我今年看到你對政府的評論比你職業生涯中任何時候都多。

And August 2, op-ed Washington, Post Davos, you're talking about government.

8 月 2 日，華盛頓專欄，達沃斯郵報，你在談論政府。

I think it was this week or last week on Bloomberg, you're talking saying bank merger should be allowed.

我想是在本週或上週的彭博社上，你在談論應該允許銀行合併。

Your bus tour in August, you were asked, which is my question.

有人問你八月的巴士之旅，這是我的問題。

Now, under what circumstances would you leave for government service?

那麼，在什麼情況下你會去政府部門工作呢？

And your answer then was I love what I do.

然後你的回答是我喜歡我所做的事情。

We get it.

我們明白了。

You love what you do, but under what circumstances would you consider government service?

您熱愛自己的工作，但在什麼情況下您會考慮為政府服務？

It seems like you'd be more likely to go now than in the past.

看起來你現在比過去更有可能去。

Just based on the numerous comments that you've made, is that right or wrong?

僅根據您發表的大量評論，這是對還是錯？

What you're thinking?

你在想什麼？

I think it's wrong.

我認為這是錯誤的。

I've always been a American patriot and my country is more important to me than my company.

我一直是美國愛國者，對我來說，我的國家比我的公司更重要。

And I think the government is very important to get this and if you look at the world today, Mike, it is so important that we get things right for the whole geopolitical world.

我認為政府對於實現這一點非常重要，如果你看看當今的世界，麥克，我們為整個地緣政治世界做好事情非常重要。

I'm not just talking about the, the American economy.

我不僅僅是在談論美國經濟。

So, and we try to participate in policy, you know, at the local level, at the state level, at the federal level, at the international level to try to help, you know, that's our job.

因此，我們嘗試參與地方層級、州層級、聯邦層級、國際層級的政策，試圖提供協助，而這就是我們的工作。

You know, we try to grow economies and things like that.

你知道，我們努力發展經濟等。

So nothing's changed in my view, my opinion or my interest.

所以我的觀點、看法或興趣都沒有改變。

I just think it's very, very important that we try to help government do a good job.

我只是認為我們努力幫助政府做好工作非常非常重要。

So if you were asked by the next administration to serve the country.

因此，如果下一屆政府要求你為國家服務。

Would you be open to considering it?

您願意考慮嗎？

I think the chance of that is almost nil and I probably am not going to do it.

我認為這種可能性幾乎為零，我可能不會這樣做。

But, you know, I've always reserved the right.

但是，你知道，我一直保留權利。

I don't make promise that people don't have to.

我不承諾人們不必這樣做。

But no, I mean, I love what I do.

但不，我的意思是，我熱愛我所做的事情。

I intend to be doing what I do and I almost guarantee I'll be doing this for a long period of time or at least until the board kicks me out.

我打算做我所做的事情，而且我幾乎保證我會這樣做很長一段時間，或者至少直到董事會把我踢出去。

Let me take the flip side of that question for those who are worried about you leaving the other side of the question is we're on these calls the last couple of years.

讓我為那些擔心你離開的人提出這個問題的另一面，問題的另一面是我們在過去幾年中一直在進行這些電話會議。

You're saying the stock is overvalued.

你說的是股票被高估了。

And I think part, I think that's what you're saying.

我認為部分，我認為這就是你所說的。

You're saying the stock market is overvalued and therefore all stocks are overvalued.

你是說股市被高估了，所以所有股票都被高估了。

And you know, on the one hand, you guys -- you highlight on this call, AI tech market share gains high returns, high capital.

你們知道，一方面，你們在這次電話會議上強調，人工智慧技術的市場份額獲得了高回報和高資本。

So do you think in some ways when you think about the value of your price and your ability to buy back, you're thinking more about an old school model for valuing your stock as opposed to a new school model that might put you in the category of more tech oriented, you know, firms, especially as it relates to, you know, your progress with AI.

那麼，當您考慮價格的價值和回購能力時，您是否會以某種方式思考，您更多地考慮的是舊式模型來評估您的股票，而不是新式模型，這可能會讓您陷入困境你知道，一類更以技術為導向的公司，特別是因為它與人工智慧的進展有關。

Well, listen, you're making a very good point, which is, I think we have an exceptional company, exceptional franchises and the price point once you bit by the stock.

好吧，聽著，你的觀點非常好，那就是，我認為我們擁有一家出色的公司，出色的特許經營權以及一旦你買入股票的價格點。

But I'm not that exuberant but thinking even tech valuations or any valuations, we will stay at these very inflated values.

但我並不那麼興奮，但認為即使是科技估值或任何估值，我們也將保持在這些非常膨脹的價值。

And so I'm just, we're just quite patient in that and I think you got to judge us over time, but we've done the right to nothing.

所以我只是，我們對此非常有耐心，我認為隨著時間的推移，你必須對我們進行評判，但我們沒有做任何事情的權利。

And remember we could always do it.

請記住，我們總是可以做到。

We haven't lost the money.

我們並沒有失去錢。

It didn't go away.

它並沒有消失。

It's sitting in the store.

它坐在商店裡。

You know, the only time would be really wrong.

要知道，唯一的時機真的錯了。

If the stock runs way up, we going to buy at much higher prices.

如果股票大幅上漲，我們將以更高的價格買入。

And I just, I would be a real [sceptic] about that happened.

我只是，我會對所發生的事情抱持真正的[懷疑]態度。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning, I guess.

嘿，早上好，我想。

Just wanted to follow up.

只是想跟進。

You talked about private credit and the disruption to bank lending.

您談到了私人信貸和銀行貸款的中斷。

Another area I would appreciate if you can address is we've been hearing a lot about the likes of Jane Street and other market makers potentially disrupting fixed income trading.

如果您能解決的另一個問題是，我們已經聽到很多關於 Jane Street 和其他做市商可能擾亂固定收益交易的消息。

Is that a real risk?

這是真正的風險嗎？

And is there an opportunity for a form like JP Morgan to actually compete on the private venue site on market making beyond traditional sort of fake activity?

像摩根大通這樣的形式是否有機會在私人場地網站上進行真正的超越傳統虛假活動的做市競爭？

Yeah, the way I would frame that is not as a risk but as a reality like, you know, we've always emphasized in all of our businesses that we operate in an extremely competitive environment and that applies to and that competitive environment isn't limited to competing against banks or, you know, traditional financial institutions.

是的，我認為這不是一種風險，而是一種現實，你知道，我們一直在我們所有的業務中強調，我們在一個極其競爭的環境中運營，這適用於競爭環境。或傳統金融機構競爭。

It extends in the consumer space to fintech and in the market making space, it obviously increasingly is extending to some of the types of firms that you're referring to.

它從消費者領域擴展到金融科技，在做市領域，它顯然越來越多地擴展到您所指的某些類型的公司。

Now, those firms are in many cases, also clients.

現在，這些公司在許多情況下也是客戶。

And that's the same type of dynamic that you see, for example, in the private credit space that we've discussed before.

這與您在我們之前討論過的私人信貸領域看到的動態類型相同。

So there's no question that the ecosystem is changing.

因此，毫無疑問，生態系統正在改變。

You've got new competitors, you've got changes in market structure, new dynamics.

你有新的競爭對手，你有市場結構的變化，新的動態。

And as with any business, we are innovating and adjusting and making sure that we're prepared to compete in all the traditional ways and all the new ways.

與任何企業一樣，我們正在創新和調整，並確保我們準備好以所有傳統方式和所有新方式進行競爭。

Of course, there are some ways in which being a bank, there is our ability to do that.

當然，作為銀行，我們有能力透過某些方式做到這一點。

And one of the arguments that we've made going back to the capital liquidity regulations is that when you come to the impact on the kind of us capital markets ecosystem, which you know, is the envy of the world, it's worked well in its current construct for a long time where, you know, some activities were inside the regulated perimeter and there was robust participation from unregulated capital of various sorts.

我們回到資本流動性監管的論點之一是，當你談到對美國資本市場生態系統的影響時，你知道，這是全世界羨慕的，它在其自身領域運作良好。 ，你知道，有些活動是在受監管範圍內的，並且有來自各種不受監管的資本的大力參與。

And a world where more and more of that activity gets pushed outside of bank market makers is a meaningful change to that structure that is untested and it's unclear why you would want that.

越來越多的活動被推到銀行做市商之外，這對未經測試的結構來說是一個有意義的改變，目前還不清楚為什麼你會想要這樣。

And you know, we've cautioned that if that's the intent of the regulations, that should be intentional and well-studied.

你知道，我們已經警告說，如果這是法規的意圖，那麼這應該是有意為之並經過充分研究。

But in the meantime, we're going to adjust and compete to the best of our ability, given the constraints of the current rule side.

但同時，考慮到當前規則方面的限制，我們將盡最大努力進行調整和競爭。

The crazy side in the private markets, it remains to be seen how that develops and it is a little bit of that and some people are talking about, you know, making more active things in private markets in some ways we're well positioned for that too because for that, you need liquidity market making valuation, you know, buyers and sellers on both sides of great equity.

私募市場瘋狂的一面，如何發展還有待觀察，有些人正在談論，你知道，以我們處於有利位置的某些方式在私募市場上做出更活躍的事情這也是因為為此，你需要流動性做市估值，你知道，買家和賣家都擁有龐大的股權。

So that hasn't developed yet, but we're not, we should, we may have competition but, you know, we'll be there when the time comes.

所以這還沒有發展，但我們沒有，我們應該，我們可能會有競爭，但是，你知道，到時候我們就會在那裡。

And the second one is the public markets.

第二個是公共市場。

You have seen reports about, you know, deal inventories, both corporate and treasuries.

您已經看過有關公司和國債庫存交易的報告。

And I do think that's hampered a little bit, but again, we do it remember for clients.

我確實認為這有點阻礙，但我們再次為客戶記住這一點。

So we are a large market makers in both sides of the markets for clients, more credit and treasuries and looking a little different than some of the other people just, just trading for their own account.

因此，我們是市場雙方的大型做市商，為客戶提供更多信貸和國債，看起來與其他一些人略有不同，只是為自己的帳戶進行交易。

And so they're both competition from our standpoint, but we're there we're going to do it, we're going to deploy more capital you want and we would even deploy more capital at lower returns if we really had to do that to service clients.

因此，從我們的角度來看，它們都是競爭，但我們會這樣做，我們將部署更多你想要的資本，如果我們真的必須這樣做，我們甚至會以較低的回報部署更多資本為客戶提供服務。

So we're, you know, we're very conscious of it.

所以我們非常清楚這一點。

There'll be competition, both sides.

雙方都會有競爭。

And as Jeremy said, you know, we sat here 10 years ago talking about the application of the business and can we keep up with that?

正如 Jeremy 所說，你知道，我們 10 年前坐在這裡談論業務應用，我們能跟上嗎？

And so far we have.

到目前為止我們已經做到了。

Got it, and just one quick one and Jeremy, you mentioned QT stopping at some point, we saw the repo sort of market spike at the end of September.

明白了，傑里米，你提到 QT 在某個時候停止，我們在 9 月底看到了回購市場的飆升。

Can you give us your perspective on just the risk of market liquidity shock as we move into year end.

進入年底，您能否向我們介紹一下您對市場流動性衝擊風險的看法？

How and do you have a view on how quickly fed should recalibrate QT or actually stop QT to prevent some point?

您對於聯準會應該以多快的速度重新校準 QT 或實際停止 QT 以防止某種情況有何看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, it's a good question where he might but, I think you've kind of answered your own question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，他可能會問，但是，我認為你已經回答了你自己的問題。

In other words, like the argument out there is that the repo spike that we saw at the end of this quarter was an indication that maybe the market is approaching that lowest comfortable level of reserves that's been heavily speculated about.

換句話說，就像外界的論點一樣，我們在本季末看到的回購激增表明，市場可能正在接近人們廣泛猜測的最低舒適準備金水準。

And recognizing that that number is probably higher and driven by, you know, the evolution of firms liquidity requirements as opposed to some of the more traditional measures.

並認識到這個數字可能更高，並且是由公司流動性要求的演進（而不是一些更傳統的衡量標準）所驅動的。

And, you know, side point is just another reason why it's important to look at the whole framework holistically.

而且，您知道，側面觀點只是從整體上看待整個框架很重要的另一個原因。

When we think about the regulatory response to the events of two springs ago, you know, you don't want those types of spikes and, and it raises some questions about why there isn't more readiness to deploy into those types of disruptions, albeit this one was relatively minor.

當我們考慮對兩年前事件的監管反應時，你知道，你不希望出現這些類型的峰值，並且它提出了一些問題，為什麼沒有更多的準備來部署這些類型的中斷，儘管這件事相對較小。

But in any case, when you put all that together, it would seem to add some weight to the notion that maybe QT should be wound down.

但無論如何，當你把所有這些放在一起時，似乎會更加相信 QT 應該被縮減的想法。

And that seems to be increasingly the consensus that's going to get announced at some point in the fourth quarter.

這似乎越來越成為第四季某個時候宣布的共識。

So my only point was if you play that view through is a residual headwind for system wide deposit growth which gets removed.

因此，我唯一的觀點是，如果你仔細觀察這個觀點，你會發現系統範圍存款成長的殘餘阻力將會被消除。

And that's one of the reasons that we feel that we're probably in the trough of our deposit balances at the level.

這就是我們認為我們的存款餘額可能處於該水平低谷的原因之一。

Sorry, I just wanted a couple of policy things here.

抱歉，我只想了解一些政策內容。

I'm not actually sure they can actually do that because you have inflationary factors out there partially driven by QT and also look at the volatility.

我實際上不確定他們是否真的能做到這一點，因為通膨因素部分是由 QT 驅動的，而且還要考慮波動性。

It's not a risk to JP Morgan, it's a risk to the system.

這不是摩根大通的風險，而是整個系統的風險。

And what banks have I already mentioned, you know, the constraint balance a little bit.

我已經提過哪些銀行，你知道，約束平衡一點。

So the banks will have trillions of dollars of cash and unable to deploy the repo markets.

因此，銀行將擁有數兆美元的現金，但無法部署回購市場。

And is it a good policy thing that every time it happen because you can do it very safely, fully collateralized all things like that, providing what I call flexible financing in the marketplace that that happens.

每次發生這種情況都是一件好事，因為你可以非常安全地做到這一點，充分抵押所有類似的東西，在發生這種情況的市場上提供我所說的靈活融資。

The FED has to step in every time.

美聯儲每次都必須介入。

I think that becomes a policy issue that every time you know, comes some kind of fluctuation in the market, people panic and the FED got stuff in and provide stuff.

我認為這成為一個政策問題，每次市場出現某種波動，人們就會恐慌，Fed就會介入並提供東西。

And can they always do that if you have a slightly more inflationary environment going forward.

如果未來通膨環境稍微加劇，他們是否總是能做到這一點？

So I, I think you have to be very thoughtful about this.

所以我認為你必須對此深思熟慮。

Now, that's why we do think they should look at calibrating, you know, SLR and [ESLR] and [CET1] and all these things particularly for this.

現在，這就是為什麼我們確實認為他們應該考慮校準，你知道，SLR 和 [ESLR] 和 [CET1] 以及所有這些特別為此目的的東西。

So my view is it is going to happen again.

所以我的觀點是這種情況還會再發生。

I can't tell you exactly when but I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen again.

我無法告訴你確切的時間，但如果這種情況不再發生，我會感到驚訝。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you both.

謝謝你們倆。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Hey, Betsy.

嘿，貝特西。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Hello?

你好？

Yeah, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Can you hear us?

你聽得到我們說話嗎？

Oh, Yeah.

哦，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So one for Jeremy, one for Jamie.

所以一份給傑瑞米，一份給傑米。

Jeremy and Jamie.

傑里米和傑米。

Sorry about the NII question I'm going to have but it is more than half your revenue.

很抱歉我要問 NII 問題，但這佔了您收入的一半以上。

So I kind of care about it.

所以我有點關心它。

But when I'm thinking about the, you know, the trough and then the build-up, QT ending deposit growth.

但當我想到，你知道，低谷，然後是積累，QT 結束存款成長。

I mean, that's, you know, part of the calculation for improvement as we go into, you know, 2025.

我的意思是，這是我們進入 2025 年時改進計算的一部分。

Right?

正確的？

I should embed that outlook.

我應該嵌入這種觀點。

Is that right?

是這樣嗎？

And that's embedded in how you're thinking about it.

這根植於你的思考方式。

I know we don't have a number from you for an I for 2025 but it is in there.

我知道我們沒有您提供的 2025 年 I 號碼，但它就在那裡。

Right.

正確的。

Yeah, in other words, it, it goes back to my prior point and to the point you know, that I had in the prepared remarks about the consumer deposit balances, in particular that there's a bunch of different offsetting factors right now, right?

是的，換句話說，它回到了我之前的觀點，你知道，我在準備好的關於消費者存款餘額的評論中說過，特別是現在有很多不同的抵消因素，對嗎？

You've got the yield curve.

你已經得到了殖利率曲線。

You've got card revolve, you've got balances and you know, balances have been a headwind.

你有卡片循環，你有餘額，你知道，餘額一直是逆風。

We now see it as neutral and they could potentially become a tail end.

我們現在認為它是中性的，它們有可能成為尾端。

You know, later in the year.

你知道，今年晚些時候。

And one of the potential reasons for that is one of the potential tail end and one of the potential reasons for that is the potential end of QT.

潛在的原因之一是潛在的尾端之一，潛在的原因之一是 QT 的潛在結束。

But you know, emphasize the word potential to Jamie's point, you also obviously have a little bit of the fixed rate, asset rep price dynamics starting to flow through a little bit while we're on NII just to annoy Jamie a little bit more.

但你知道，強調 Jamie 所說的「潛力」這個詞，很明顯，當我們在 NII 上時，你也明顯有一點固定利率、資產代表價格動態開始流動，只是為了讓 Jamie 更煩惱一點。

I do want to make a point that I didn't get a chance to make previously, which is, there's a reason that we emphasized the implied fourth quarter run rate for the markets.

我確實想指出我之前沒有機會提出的一點，那就是我們強調市場隱含的第四季運行率是有原因的。

And NII, in the presentation, which is that if you take that and you annualize it, it gives you a launch point run rate, which is, you know, significantly higher than, you know, what's currently in the consensus and obviously what we've seen this year, and I'll give you the concise version of my usual speech that changes in markets and NII are almost always bottom line neutral and offset in an NII but for the purpose, I'm trying to help you guys with your models.

NII，在簡報中，如果你接受它並對其進行年度化，它會給你一個啟動點運行率，你知道，這明顯高於目前的共識，顯然我們的預測是這樣的。看到了，我將向你們提供我通常演講的簡潔版本，即市場和NII 的變化幾乎總是底線中性並在NII 中抵消，但出於目的，我試圖幫助你們你的模型。

I would just encourage you to recognize what that launch point is.

我只是鼓勵您認識到這個啟動點是什麼。

The number of cuts that are in the curve.

曲線中的切割次數。

The fact that that number has historically and recent past, been quite liability sensitive, so you can draw your own conclusions about what that should mean.

事實上，這個數字在歷史上和最近的歷史上都是相當敏感的，因此您可以就這意味著什麼得出自己的結論。

Again, shouldn't change the overall revenue expectation.

同樣，不應改變整體收入預期。

It's just a balance sheet and income statement, geography issue, but just for the sake of helping you tidy up models, I wanted to make that point.

這只是一個資產負債表和損益表，地理問題，但只是為了幫助您整理模型，我想指出這一點。

And so Daniel's comments in September were on NII in total or NIR X markets.

因此 Daniel 在 9 月的評論是關於 NII 總量或 NIR X 市場。

Could you just that--

你能不能這樣——

Those are core and NII X. So again, reiterating at the time, the '24 consensus was 91.5, the '25 consensus was 90 on NII X. And our point was that that number which remains an asset sensitive number.

這些是核心和 NII X。

Indi indicated an insufficient amount of sequential decline year on year.

Indi 表示年比下降幅度不足。

The current consensus as we see it for NII X markets is 87 and as we've noted, that's closer, albeit maybe still a little bit top.

目前我們對 NII X 市場的共識是 87，正如我們所指出的，這個數字更接近，儘管可能仍然有點高。

Okay.

好的。

And then one for Jamie, Jamie, we did talk already quite a bit about the capital that you have capital in store.

然後是傑米，傑米，我們確實已經談論了很多關於你擁有的資本的問題。

Just wanted to understand how you're thinking about that opportunity set that's in front of you with regard to using it for, you know, potentially portfolio acquisitions.

只是想了解您如何看待擺在您面前的機會集，並將其用於潛在的投資組合收購。

I realize that depositories are not on the docket, but we all know there's, you know, portfolios out there that might be looking for a home.

我意識到存託機構不在案卷上，但我們都知道，你知道，有一些投資組合可能正在尋找一個家。

And could you give us a sense as to how interested you might be in acquiring assets at this stage?

您能否告訴我們您對現階段收購資產的興趣有多大？

Yeah, so I'm just, I said acquisitions, I mean, I always want our people to be looking at those things and thinking about those things and being, but if you listen to what I'm saying about my question about the world, you know, I'm not, we, it's hard for me to say that we're going to be in the market to buy credit assets.

是的，所以我只是，我說收購，我的意思是，我總是希望我們的員工關注這些事情並思考這些事情和存在，但如果你聽我所說的關於我關於世界的問題，你知道，我不是，我們，我很難說我們會在市場上購買信貸資產。

What about?--

那又怎樣？

But creating credit assets to help (multiple speakers) clients, that's a whole different matter because when it comes to clients, we earn credit assets spread and we usually have other stuff that, you know, if our bankers can deploy capital that way.

但是創造信貸資產來幫助（多位發言者）客戶，這是一個完全不同的問題，因為當涉及到客戶時，我們賺取信貸資產利差，而且我們通常還有其他東西，你知道，如果我們的銀行家能夠以這種方式部署資本。

Of course, we that we want to do more and our CIO could deploy capital multiple ways, we would probably do more.

當然，如果我們想做更多，並且我們的資訊長可以透過多種方式部署資本，我們可能會做得更多。

And we ask all the time, can we do more in affordable housing?

我們一直在問，我們能否在經濟適用房方面做得更多？

We do more and things we're actually quite comfortable.

我們做了更多的事情，而且我們實際上很舒服。

And yeah, if we can find ways to deploy capital, we would be happy to do that.

是的，如果我們能找到部署資本的方法，我們會很樂意這樣做。

But we know, put us in a crisis category and find the right stretch.

但我們知道，將我們置於危機類別並找到正確的延伸。

I'm just wondering about, you know, private label credit card, for example, is that something that would help clients?

我只是想知道，例如，私人標籤信用卡，這對客戶有幫助嗎？

Almost no chance, but have, but having it's very important, I say that I always tell the management team second guess me, I mean, we've done privately but I know what it is.

幾乎沒有機會，但有，但有它非常重要，我說我總是告訴管理團隊第二次猜我，我的意思是，我們私下做了，但我知道它是什麼。

We've been there.

我們去過那裡。

I have a lot of issues but is it possible that something is different one day in a different, you know, thing?

我有很多問題，但有沒有可能有一天事情會有所不同，你知道，事情會有所不同？

Yeah, it's possible.

是的，這是可能的。

So I don't want to cut it off.

所以我不想把它剪掉。

You know, Mary and Lake says to me, Jamie, I think clearly the world's changed, we're going to change.

你知道，瑪麗和萊克對我說，傑米，我認為顯然世界已經改變，我們也會改變。

But right now, I would say no, there's no chance.

但現在我會說不，沒有機會。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I'm not going to ask about a specific NII in '25 but I did want to delve into the how to think about your deposit margin in volume dynamics in the CCB over the next few years.

我不會問 25 年的具體 NII，但我確實想深入研究如何考慮未來幾年 CCB 交易量動態中的存款保證金。

You have seen, you know, decent amount of pressure in the deposit margin '26 down about 30 basis points.

你知道，26 年存款保證金承受了相當大的壓力，下降了約 30 個基點。

You know, deposit balances have come down.

你知道，存款餘額已經下降。

So it put some pressure on deposit and NII, but deposit margins are still, you know, well above where they were, when rates were at levels that are consistent with where the forward curve is now has been going.

因此，這給存款和NII帶來了一些壓力，但你知道，存款保證金仍然遠高於利率水準與遠期曲線目前走勢一致的水準。

So I guess, you know, how do we think about both volumes and margin dynamics if rates do come down, say the level that, you know, are consistent with the forward curve, I know the forward curve, you know, likely going to be wrong, but that's the reference point we have and conversely, you know, volume offsets.

所以我想，如果利率確實下降，我們如何考慮交易量和保證金動態，比如說與遠期曲線一致的水平，我知道遠期曲線，你知道，可能會錯了，但這是我們的參考點，相反，你知道，成交量偏移。

You mentioned Jeremy retail deposits becoming a tailwind and I guess how much of a tail could they be?

你提到傑里米零售存款成為一股順風，我猜它們能起到多大的推動作用？

You know, especially as you are, you know, expecting to, to you know, to gain quite a bit of market share in retail deposits.

你知道，尤其是你，你知道，期望獲得相當多的零售存款市場份額。

So just, you know, just give us a sense of sort of the push and pull the dynamics that, you know, really help drive the deposit, you know, the value of the deposit franchise.

所以，你知道，只是給我們一種推動和拉動的動力，你知道，這確實有助於推動存款，你知道，存款特許經營的價值。

Sure.

當然。

Yeah, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

So, and I think you've laid out you're the building blocks there already.

所以，我認為你已經把自己當作建構模組了。

Just for simplicity, I'm going to try to answer your question without referring to the disclosed CCB deposit margin number just because that number is obviously the combination of the rate paid on the CCB deposits and the internal FTP into that.

為了簡單起見，我將嘗試回答你的問題，而不提及披露的建行存款保證金數字，因為該數字顯然是建行存款支付利率和內部 FTP 的組合。

And that is a complicated thing that evolves as a function of the modeling of the beta and other things.

這是一件複雜的事情，它隨著測試版和其他事物的建模而演變。

So I think it's actually more helpful to look at this simply from a firm wide perspective and look at the evolution of the rate paid in the context of the policy rates roughly and to set aside duration management and all those other factors.

因此，我認為，從公司廣泛的角度來簡單地看待這個問題，並在政策利率的背景下粗略地看待支付利率的演變，並把久期管理和所有其他因素放在一邊，實際上更有幫助。

And I think when you do that, what you see is we've been saying for a while that the, you know, deposit margin defined for these purposes is simply the difference between the policy rate and the weighted average rate paid to the consumer deposits was unsustainably high and that was going to have to correct one way or the other.

我認為，當您這樣做時，您會看到我們已經說過一段時間了，您知道，為此目的定義的存款保證金只是政策利率與支付給消費者存款的加權平均利率之間的差額其高得不可持續，因此必須以某種方式進行修正。

Either deposits were going to reprice you know, at the product level through checking and savings and or we were going to see a ton of internal migration i.e., growth in the CD mix and or we would see a lower policy rate.

要么存款將透過支票和儲蓄在產品層面重新定價，要么我們將看到大量的內部遷移，即 CD 組合的增長，要么我們會看到更低的政策利率。

So as we sit here right now, you know, of course, we make pricing decisions in the context of market competition at any given moment looking at what the environment is for deposits, but it, we have not needed to reprice in order to retain primary bank relationships, which was also our core strategy.

因此，當我們現在坐在這裡時，你知道，當然，我們在任何特定時刻都會在市場競爭的背景下做出定價決策，看看存款的環境如何，但我們不需要重新定價來保留主要銀行關係，這也是我們的核心戰略。

We were never going to chase sort of the hot money at the margin.

我們永遠不會以利潤追逐某種熱錢。

We've learned in heavily to CDS and gotten to the current level of CIB mix.

我們深入了解了 CDS，並達到了 CIB 組合的當前水平。

And that's been a good strategy.

這是一個很好的策略。

And from where we sit now, we now have the margin coming down as a result of the policy rate coming down.

從我們現在的情況來看，由於政策利率下降，我們的利潤率正在下降。

It seems that that puts us in a pretty comfortable position from a pricing perspective.

從定價角度來看，這似乎讓我們處於一個相當舒適的位置。

We think the CIB mix has probably peaked now on the way down, it's not going to go back down to zero where it was at the beginning of the cycle.

我們認為 CIB 組合現在可能已經在下降過程中達到頂峰，不會回到週期開始時的零。

That's an important thing to realize.

這是一件需要意識到的重要事情。

So all else equal, that creates a little bit of margin compression.

因此，所有其他條件都相同，這會產生一點邊際壓縮。

And then through all of that, obviously, a lower yield environment should mean that there's a little bit less outflow from consumer deposits.

綜上所述，顯然，較低的收益率環境應該意味著消費者存款的流出會減少。

As I mentioned, we're seeing a lot less yield seeking behavior.

正如我所提到的，我們看到追求收益的行為大大減少。

So then when you overlay on to that, what you mentioned, which is our long term share growth in CCB deposits in part as a function of the brand strategy and the build out and the fact that, you know, only about a quarter of our Top 25 markets in CCB are at that 15% share number.

因此，當你涵蓋這一點時，你提到的是，我們在建行存款中的長期份額增長部分是品牌戰略和建設的函數，事實上，你知道，只有我們的四分之一左右CCB 前25個市場的佔有率為15%。

So we believe there's a big opportunity to grow the rest of it and be on track to the type of like you know, average annual share growth of the order of 30 basis points or 40 basis points that we've seen historically, that's how you kind of assemble a tailwind from you know, normalized deposit margin and balance growth in consumer.

因此，我們相信，有一個很大的機會來增長其餘部分，並有望實現我們歷史上看到的 30 個基點或 40 個基點左右的平均年份額增長，這就是你的方式你知道，存款保證金正常化和消費者餘額成長會帶來一股推動力。

You're correct me if you think I'm wrong, the abnormal time period was raised for between zero and 1% or 2%.

如果你認為我錯了，那你就糾正我，異常時間段被提高到 0 到 1% 或 2% 之間。

Other than that, if you look at, if you were going to say what are normal deposit margins in the normal banking business for, forget people going up really hot money that happens 2% to 2.5%.

除此之外，如果你要說正常銀行業務中的正常存款保證金是多少，請忘記那些熱錢的上漲，這種情況發生在 2% 到 2.5% 之間。

Absolutely agree.

絕對同意。

Okay, so that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

So it sounds like you're a little bit above that, but you know, there's still some pressure but you're you know, you're not dramatically above those levels.

所以聽起來你有點高於這個水平，但你知道，仍然有一些壓力，但你知道，你並沒有顯著高於這些水平。

We're in very good returns in business and wealth, banking and wealth management.

我們在商業和財富、銀行和財富管理領域獲得了非常好的回報。

We're growing market share and when we build branches and stuff like that, we don't necessarily assume current margins.

我們正在擴大市場份額，當我們建立分支機構和類似的東西時，我們不一定假設當前的利潤率。

We look at what the normal margins over time and we're very comfortable doing very nice business for you all.

我們會專注在一段時間內的正常利潤，我們很樂意為你們所有人做非常好的生意。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

That's all I got.

這就是我所得到的。

Thanks, Saul.

謝謝，索爾。

Thanks everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you all for participating in today's conference.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。

You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.

此時您可以斷開連線並好好休息一天。