應用材料 (AMAT) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 營收達 104 億美元,季增 14%、年增 53%,EPS 達 4.16 美元,季增 19%、年增 92%,均創歷史新高,落在指引高標
    • 2027 年展望持續樂觀,預期半導體系統營收將年增 40%,公司預期將再次優於 WFE 市場,Q1 指引營收 111 億美元(年增 58%)、EPS 4.35 美元(年增 83%)
    • 市場反應正面,管理層強調需求能見度高、供應鏈持續擴產,並未見到客戶延後拉貨,同業部分出現供應瓶頸但公司自評影響有限
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 驅動先進製程(foundry-logic、DRAM)與先進封裝需求強勁,帶動 WFE 市場與公司營收高成長
      • 公司於先進製程、DRAM、先進封裝等高價值技術領域市佔領先,持續擴大可服務市場(SAM)
      • 檢測與量測(eBeam、光學)業務年增超過 50%,AIx 服務平台連結超過 37,000 台設備,年增 20%
      • 與客戶、供應鏈深度合作,獲得 8 季滾動預測與提前下單,並積極擴充產能,2028 年產能將較 2026 年底倍增
    • 風險:
      • 產業成長受限於潔淨室(clean room)建置進度,短期供應鏈仍有部分瓶頸,Q1 若供應完全順暢營收可更高
      • 中國市場成長低於 AI 驅動的先進製程與封裝領域,2027 年中國營收占比預估低於 25%
      • 若資料中心建置出現短暫放緩,雖目前需求遠大於供給,但仍需留意下游投資步調
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 半導體系統(Semiconductor Systems):Q4 營收 80 億美元,季增 14%、年增 64%,毛利率 55.2%,年增 240bps,營業利潤率 39%,年增 940bps
    • 先進封裝:2026 年營收預計年增 90%,2027 年持續強勁
    • 檢測與量測(eBeam/Optical):2026 年營收年增超過 50%,eBeam 市佔 2 倍於次大競爭者
    • Applied Global Services(AGS):Q4 營收 19 億美元,年增 26%,毛利率 35.1%,營業利潤率 30.5%
    • 其他事業(主要為顯示器):Q4 營收 5.17 億美元,預期未來每季約 4 億美元,毛利率約 40%,營業利潤率 20%+
  4. 財務預測
    • Q1 營收預估 111 億美元(±5 億),年增 58%
    • Q1 非 GAAP 毛利率預估 50.8%,年增 170bps
    • Q1 CapEx 未明確揭露,Q4 CapEx 6.84 億美元,全年 27 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 過去 90 天需求環境有何變化?對 2028、2030 年出貨成長有何預期?
      A: 過去三季每季新增超過 10 個新廠或擴產案,需求持續增強,領先製程與 DRAM 產能持續吃緊,2028 年產能將較 2026 年底倍增,2030 年將再倍增,並與供應鏈密切協作以滿足成長。
    • Q: 供應鏈瓶頸是否影響出貨?是否有客戶延後拉貨?
      A: 目前未見客戶延後拉貨,反而持續要求提前交貨。供應鏈有部分瓶頸,若完全順暢 Q1 營收可更高,但整體影響不大,團隊持續推動產能提升。
    • Q: 若資料中心建置放緩,對 WFE 產業有何影響?
      A: 目前 AI 驅動的先進製程、DRAM、先進封裝需求極強,客戶持續要求加速交貨。即使資料中心短暫放緩,現階段需求遠大於供給,且 PC、手機等市場仍有補庫空間,產業有緩衝。
    • Q: 先進封裝與 HBM 相關業務成長動能?
      A: 2026 年 HBM 相關封裝需求大幅成長,2027 年持續強勁,客戶積極開發新封裝架構,Applied 在相關製程與混合鍵合(hybrid bonding)市佔領先,與 BESI 合作深化布局。
    • Q: 檢測與量測(PDC)明年成長展望?
      A: 2026 年 eBeam 與光學檢測年增超過 50%,2027 年預期仍將強勁成長,eBeam 技術領先且與製程創新高度協同,產品管線與客戶拉力強。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Applied Materials fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    歡迎參加應用材料(Applied Materials)2026 會計年度第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Sullivan, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話會議交給投資人關係企業副總裁 Mike Sullivan。請開始。

  • Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. With me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is discussed in our most recent Form 10-Q and other filings with the SEC. Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures.

    各位下午好,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁暨執行長 Gary Dickerson,以及財務長 Brice Hill。在開始之前,我想提醒各位,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到風險與不確定性影響,可能導致我們的實際結果有所差異。關於這些風險與不確定性的資訊,已在我們最近一期的 Form 10-Q 以及其他向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中討論。今天的電話會議也包含非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。

  • Reconciliations to GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on our website at ir.appliedmaterials.com. In addition, any comments regarding calendar 2026 refer to fiscal Q2 2026 through fiscal Q1 2027.

    與 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今天的財報新聞稿以及我們的季度財報資料中找到,相關資料可於我們網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 取得。此外,任何關於 2026 曆年的評論,係指 2026 會計年度第二季至 2027 會計年度第一季。

  • And with that introduction, I'd now like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

    在以上說明之後,現在我把電話會議交給 Gary Dickerson。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike. With quarterly results at the top end of our guidance range and all-time highs for revenue and profitability, Applied delivered a record fiscal 2026 and our seventh consecutive year of growth. I would like to recognize our employees and supply chain partners around the world for their outstanding execution this year, which enabled us to maintain high levels of customer trust during an unprecedented industry ramp.

    謝謝你,Mike。我們本季業績落在指引區間的高端,營收與獲利能力皆創歷史新高;應用材料交出創紀錄的 2026 會計年度成績,並達成連續第七年的成長。我想表揚我們全球員工與供應鏈夥伴今年卓越的執行力,讓我們在前所未有的產業擴產潮中,仍能維持客戶高度信任。

  • As this is our year-end call, I'll begin with a brief review of our performance in 2026. I'll provide our perspective on the market environment as demand continues to strengthen, Finally, I'll talk about how Applied has built the most enabling portfolio to advance the AI computing road map giving us a strong foundation for multiyear revenue and profit growth.

    由於這是我們的年終電話會議,我將先簡要回顧我們在 2026 年的表現。接著,在需求持續增強之際,我會分享我們對市場環境的觀點。最後,我將談談應用材料如何打造最具賦能性的產品組合,以推進 AI 運算路線圖,為我們多年期的營收與獲利成長奠定堅實基礎。

  • In fiscal 2026, we grew revenue more than 21% and earnings nearly twice as fast, reflecting the operating leverage in our model. Based on the midpoint of our first quarter guidance, we expect our Semiconductor Systems revenue to be up more than 40% in calendar 2026. As AI computing drives strong secular growth in semiconductors and wafer fab equipment, Applied is outgrowing the wafer fab equipment market because we've built leadership positions in the most enabling highest value technologies for AI computing.

    在 2026 會計年度,我們的營收成長超過 21%,而盈餘成長速度幾乎是其兩倍,反映出我們商業模式中的營運槓桿。以我們第一季指引的中位數來看,我們預期 2026 曆年半導體系統(Semiconductor Systems)營收將成長超過 40%。隨著 AI 運算帶動半導體與晶圓廠設備的強勁結構性成長,應用材料之所以能跑贏晶圓廠設備市場,是因為我們在 AI 運算最具賦能性、價值最高的技術上建立了領先地位。

  • Our outperformance is driven by addressable market growth and nodal share gains in both advanced foundry-logic and DRAM, our strength in advanced packaging where we expect revenues to be up around 90% this calendar year, and our growing inspection and metrology business where we're on track to increase revenue more than 50% in calendar 2026. Demand for advanced semiconductors remains much higher than supply, and multiyear investments in new fab capacity are needed for the industry to close this supply-demand gap.

    我們的超額表現來自可服務市場的成長,以及在先進晶圓代工邏輯與 DRAM 兩大領域的製程節點市占提升;也來自我們在先進封裝的優勢,我們預期今年曆年相關營收將成長約 90%;以及我們持續成長的檢測與量測業務,我們正朝著 2026 曆年營收成長超過 50% 的目標邁進。先進半導體的需求仍遠高於供給,產業需要多年期的新廠產能投資,才能縮小供需缺口。

  • We expect 2027 to be another record year for the market and for Applied. Our current view is that wafer fab equipment demand will be up more than 30% year-over-year, and we are in a strong position to outperform the market again. The rate of industry growth will depend on how quickly the end-to-end semiconductor ecosystem can scale all the way from clean room construction to equipment components and raw material supply. At Applied, we're taking multiple actions to ensure we have the capacity and resources in place to support our customers' ramps. We are working more closely with customers on demand planning.

    我們預期 2027 年對市場與應用材料而言都將是另一個創紀錄的年度。我們目前的看法是,晶圓廠設備(WFE)需求年增將超過 30%,而我們也具備再次跑贏市場的有利位置。產業成長速度將取決於端到端半導體生態系能以多快的速度擴張,涵蓋從無塵室建置到設備零組件與原物料供應。在應用材料,我們正採取多項行動,確保具備足夠產能與資源,以支援客戶的擴產爬坡。我們正與客戶更緊密合作進行需求規劃。

  • Our largest customers are giving us rolling eight-quarter forecasts and earlier orders. We're also deepening our collaboration with suppliers. In fact, I recently met with more than 250 senior executives from our key suppliers to align on capacity ramp expectations and readiness to serve a range of growth scenarios. In an AI data center, approximately 60% of the capital cost is silicon, and more than 85% of this silicon content is leading-edge foundry-logic, DRAM and advanced packaging. These three areas have the greatest impact on the AI computing road map, are expected to be the fastest-growing parts of wafer fab equipment in 2027 and together drive approximately 75% of WFE growth through 2030.

    我們最大的客戶正提供滾動式八季預測以及更早的下單。我們也在加深與供應商的協作。事實上,我最近與超過 250 位關鍵供應商的資深主管會面,就產能擴張預期與因應不同成長情境的供應準備度進行對齊。在 AI 資料中心中,約 60% 的資本成本是矽(silicon),而其中超過 85% 的矽含量來自最先進的晶圓代工邏輯、DRAM 與先進封裝。這三個領域對 AI 運算路線圖影響最大,預期將是 2027 年晶圓廠設備中成長最快的部分,並在 2030 年前合計貢獻約 75% 的 WFE 成長。

  • This is exactly where Applied has invested over the past several years to build the industry's most enabling portfolio, positioning us to outperform the market again in 2027 and beyond as we gained share at major device inflections. In mid-October, we unveiled the EPIC Center in Silicon Valley and hosted an investor breakfast in San Francisco. Thanks to all of you who attended in person or online.

    這正是應用材料過去數年投入的重點,用以打造業界最具賦能性的產品組合;隨著我們在主要元件技術拐點取得市占,我們已具備在 2027 年及其後再次跑贏市場的定位。10 月中旬,我們在矽谷揭幕 EPIC Center,並在舊金山舉辦投資人早餐會。感謝所有親臨現場或線上參與的各位。

  • At the investor event, we shared three main themes: the unprecedented opportunities created by the AI era, the unique advantages in Applied's capabilities and portfolio to address these opportunities, and how we are creating more value for customers and capturing more value for Applied. As the pace of the global AI deployment increases and the adoption of AI rapidly broadens, there is an intense battle for AI computing leadership that comes down to two interconnected races, and Applied is central to both.

    在投資人活動中,我們分享了三個主要主題:AI 時代帶來前所未有的機會、應用材料在能力與產品組合上具備的獨特優勢以掌握這些機會,以及我們如何為客戶創造更多價值並為應用材料攫取更多價值。隨著全球 AI 部署速度加快、AI 採用快速擴大,AI 運算領導地位的競爭日益激烈,最終取決於兩場相互連結的競賽,而應用材料在兩者中都扮演核心角色。

  • The first race is a race for technology leadership, which is enabled by accelerating the chip and packaging road maps that drive improvements in data center tokens per second per watt. The second is a race to add new chip manufacturing capacity by rapidly ramping new fabs while also optimizing the output and yield of existing factories.

    第一場競賽是技術領導力之爭,其關鍵在於加速晶片與封裝路線圖,以提升資料中心每瓦每秒可處理的 token 數。第二場競賽是新增晶片製造產能之爭,透過快速擴產新晶圓廠,同時最佳化既有工廠的產出與良率。

  • At Applied, we have created the industry's leading portfolio of materials innovation, integration innovation and yield innovation technologies. The foundation for our leadership in materials innovation is our comprehensive and connected technology portfolio. We serve around 55% of total wafer fab equipment with number one positions in CVD, PVD, epitaxy, CMP, implant, thermal processing, eBeam and conductor etch for advanced foundry-logic and DRAM.

    在應用材料,我們打造了業界領先的材料創新、整合創新與良率創新技術產品組合。我們在材料創新領導地位的基礎,是我們全面且相互連結的技術產品組合。我們服務約占整體晶圓廠設備的 55%,並在先進晶圓代工邏輯與 DRAM 的 CVD、PVD、外延(epitaxy)、CMP、離子植入(implant)、熱處理、eBeam 與導體蝕刻(conductor etch)等領域居於第一。

  • At advanced nodes, smaller feature sizes, three-dimensional structures and the introduction of novel materials all drive immense process complexity. The interaction between process steps is critical, especially when it comes to engineering interfaces where the layers of materials are now just 1 to 2 nanometers thick. That's why codeveloping deposition, etch, treatment, inspection and measurement technologies and solving integration challenges from the very start of development is such a powerful advantage and one that Applied is uniquely positioned to deliver. Applied has also built world-class integration, modeling and simulation teams as well as comprehensive lab infrastructure to accelerate transistor, wiring, memory and advanced packaging innovations. As yield and output become increasingly critical for customers, Applied is bringing new yield innovations to market.

    在先進節點,更小的特徵尺寸、三維結構以及新材料的導入,都使製程複雜度大幅提升。製程步驟之間的交互作用至關重要,尤其是在工程化介面方面,因為材料層厚度如今僅有 1 到 2 奈米。因此,從研發一開始就共同開發沉積、蝕刻、處理、檢測與量測技術,並解決整合挑戰,是一項極具威力的優勢,而應用材料具備獨特條件能夠提供。應用材料也建立了世界級的整合、建模與模擬團隊,以及完整的實驗室基礎設施,以加速電晶體、佈線、記憶體與先進封裝創新。隨著良率與產出對客戶而言愈發關鍵,應用材料正把新的良率創新推向市場。

  • We have the highest resolution and fastest eBeam imaging combined with industry-leading AI-enabled services that we call AIx. eBeam and AIx enable faster learning cycles in R&D, faster transfer and qualification of new technologies in pilot production, and more good chips out in high-volume manufacturing. Applied has by far the largest number of connected systems in the field with more than 37,000 chambers connected to AIx today, growing at more than 20% annually. Materials innovation, integration innovation and yield innovation are all accelerated by our EPIC platform. EPIC enables Applied to develop technology side by side with customers and partners, providing them with much earlier access to next-generation Applied technology, accelerated cycles of learning, and faster transfer and ramp to high yield and output.

    我們擁有最高解析度與最快速的 eBeam 成像能力,並結合業界領先、由 AI 驅動的服務,我們稱之為 AIx。eBeam 與 AIx 可在研發中實現更快的學習循環、在試產中更快完成新技術的移轉與認證,並在量產中產出更多良品晶片。應用材料在現場擁有迄今最多的連網系統,目前已有超過 37,000 個腔體連接至 AIx,且年增率超過 20%。材料創新、整合創新與良率創新皆由我們的 EPIC 平台加速推進。EPIC 使應用材料能與客戶與合作夥伴並肩開發技術,讓他們更早取得下一代應用材料技術、加速學習循環,並更快完成技術移轉與擴產,以達到高良率與高產出。

  • For Applied, EPIC means we are designed in earlier at new chip and packaging architectures, gain better visibility into multiple generations of customer road maps and increase our R&D productivity. Since our last earnings call, we have added four more EPIC partners, Intel, KIOXIA, Besi and UCLA, bringing our total number of announced EPIC partnerships to 15, clear validation of the value of co-innovating with Applied.

    對應用材料而言,EPIC 意味著我們能在新晶片與封裝架構的更早期就參與設計,對客戶多個世代的產品路線圖取得更佳能見度,並提升我們的研發生產力。自上次財報電話會議以來,我們新增了四家 EPIC 夥伴:Intel、KIOXIA、Besi 與 UCLA,使我們已宣布的 EPIC 合作夥伴關係總數達到 15 項,清楚驗證了與應用材料共同創新的價值。

  • At our investor event, we also outlined our 2025 to 2030 value creation targets to gain more than 2 points of wafer fab equipment share, increased service revenue per installed base tool by 20% or more and increased gross margin and operating margin by 5 and 10 points, respectively. I am confident we will make meaningful progress toward these targets in 2027, and all our teams are driving to higher targets. Before I hand over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize.

    在我們的投資人活動中,我們也概述了 2025 至 2030 年的價值創造目標:晶圓廠設備市占率提升超過 2 個百分點、每台已安裝基礎設備的服務營收提升 20% 或以上,並分別將毛利率與營業利益率提高 5 個與 10 個百分點。我有信心我們將在 2027 年朝這些目標取得實質進展,而我們所有團隊也正朝更高目標努力。在交棒給 Brice 之前,我先快速總結。

  • Fiscal 2026 was a record year for Applied Materials, and we're on track to grow our Semiconductor Systems business more than 40% this calendar year. We are growing faster than the wafer fab equipment market because of the strong leadership position we've built in leading-edge foundry-logic, DRAM and advanced packaging. These are the most enabling areas for AI computing, the fastest-growing parts of wafer fab equipment in 2027 and where Applied has invested strategically to build the industry's most enabling portfolio.

    2026 會計年度是應用材料的創紀錄年度,而我們也正按計畫在今年曆年讓半導體系統業務成長超過 40%。我們的成長速度快於晶圓廠設備市場,原因在於我們在先進製程晶圓代工邏輯、DRAM 與先進封裝所建立的強勢領導地位。這些是 AI 運算最關鍵的賦能領域,也是 2027 年晶圓廠設備中成長最快的部分;應用材料已策略性投資,打造業界最具賦能能力的產品組合。

  • We see 2027 as another record year for the industry and another year of outperformance for Applied, in which we expect to make significant progress towards our long-term targets. In short, AI is driving a multiyear expansion in semiconductor demand, and Applied has never been better positioned to lead and outgrow the market.

    我們認為 2027 年將是產業另一個創紀錄年度,也是應用材料再度跑贏市場的一年;我們預期將在邁向長期目標方面取得顯著進展。總之,AI 正推動半導體需求的多年期擴張,而應用材料從未像現在這樣具備更佳的領導與超越市場成長的定位。

  • Brice, over to you.

    Brice,交給你。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Thanks, Gary. I'm pleased to share that Applied delivered a third consecutive quarter of double-digit sequential and year-over-year growth in revenue, operating profit and non-GAAP earnings per share. Fiscal Q4 also marks our 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year gross margin expansion, which demonstrates the customer value of our highly enabling product and services portfolio.

    謝謝你,Gary。我很高興分享:應用材料在營收、營業利益與非 GAAP 每股盈餘方面,已連續第三季實現雙位數的季增與年增。2026 會計年度第四季也標誌著我們連續第 14 季毛利率年增擴張,這展現了我們高度賦能的產品與服務組合為客戶創造的價值。

  • We expect to outperform the market this calendar year with strong growth in DRAM, leading-edge foundry-logic and advanced packaging, which is precisely where we've been investing to lead. I'd like to thank our manufacturing and operations teams and our partners for responding to further increases in customer demand and helping make these strong results possible.

    我們預期今年曆年將以 DRAM、先進製程晶圓代工邏輯與先進封裝的強勁成長而跑贏市場,而這正是我們持續投資以取得領先的領域。我要感謝我們的製造與營運團隊以及合作夥伴,因應客戶需求的進一步提升,並協助促成這些強勁成果。

  • On today's call, I'll update you on the demand environment, summarize our fiscal 2026 and Q4 results, and provide our Q1 business outlook. All the leading indicators we track continue to point upwards. Cloud CapEx is expected to increase more than 50% in 2027 to well over $1 trillion. AI token usage is growing exponentially. The increasing variety of AI models is enabling more applications and generating positive economics both for service providers and for early adopters like Applied Materials.

    在今天的電話會議中,我將更新需求環境、總結我們 2026 會計年度與第四季的業績,並提供第一季的業務展望。我們追蹤的所有領先指標仍持續向上。雲端資本支出(CapEx)預期在 2027 年將增加超過 50%,達到遠超過 1 兆美元。AI token 使用量正呈指數型成長。AI 模型種類日益多元,正促成更多應用,並為服務供應商與像應用材料這樣的早期採用者帶來正向經濟效益。

  • AI is now a core part of everyday work at Applied. Over 80% of our employees use tools like Microsoft Copilot and Anthropic's Claude, along with newer domain-specific tools for materials discovery and engineering.

    AI 現在已成為應用材料日常工作的核心部分。超過 80% 的員工使用 Microsoft Copilot 與 Anthropic 的 Claude 等工具,並搭配較新的特定領域工具,用於材料探索與工程。

  • Inferencing is driving positive results throughout the company from equipment and software development to field service, operations and back office functions. All our software developers use AI, with an average productivity gain of over 40%. As a result, our monthly token consumption grew by more than 50x this year, and we expect our token and task usage to increase substantially in 2027, as we find more ways to use AI to accelerate revenue, improve customer service and operate more efficiently.

    推論(Inferencing)正在全公司帶來正向成果,涵蓋設備與軟體開發、現場服務、營運以及後勤辦公等職能。我們所有軟體開發人員都使用 AI,平均生產力提升超過 40%。因此,我們今年每月 token 消耗量成長超過 50 倍;我們預期在 2027 年,隨著我們找到更多運用 AI 以加速營收、改善客戶服務並提升營運效率的方法,token 與任務使用量將大幅增加。

  • AI continues to drive strong incremental growth in wafer demand with leading-edge logic and DRAM fabs running at full utilization. NAND is not far behind, and ICAPS is now in a healthy zone.

    AI 持續推動晶圓需求的強勁增量成長,先進邏輯與 DRAM 晶圓廠正以滿載稼動率運行。NAND 也緊追在後,而 ICAPS 現在已處於健康區間。

  • In the near term, a major focus is expanding our supply chain capacity to further increase the number of systems we can produce. We've raised our demand forecast to our suppliers every quarter this year, and they are partnering with us as the 2027 demand outlook continues to increase. We've mapped our supply chain, and our teams and partners are executing to manage pinch points and deliver another very strong growth year.

    短期內,一個主要重點是擴充我們供應鏈的產能,以進一步提高我們可生產的系統數量。今年我們每一季都上調對供應商的需求預測,而隨著 2027 年需求展望持續上修,他們也正與我們合作。我們已完成供應鏈盤點,我們的團隊與合作夥伴正執行以管理瓶頸,並交付另一個非常強勁的成長年度。

  • Over the medium term, clean room capacity remains a gating factor for how much equipment the industry can consume. Fortunately, we're tracking more than 20 fab ramps and line expansions in 2027 alone. We've created new teams and AIx technologies that will help our customers accelerate these ramps and maximize wafer output and yields.

    中期而言,無塵室產能仍是限制產業可消化設備量的關鍵門檻因素。所幸,僅在 2027 年,我們就追蹤到超過 20 個晶圓廠擴建(ramp)與產線擴充。我們已成立新團隊並推出 AIx 技術,將協助客戶加速這些擴建並最大化晶圓產出與良率。

  • Longer term, demand signals from our customers remain very positive, with more than 10 major fabs and expansion projects added to our tracker for the third quarter in a row. Many of these new projects are not expected to come online until 2029 and 2030, which indicates a much higher level of demand across the 5- and 10-year horizon than previously planned in both logic and memory.

    更長期來看,客戶端的需求訊號仍非常正向,且我們的追蹤清單已連續第三季新增超過 10 個大型晶圓廠與擴建專案。其中許多新專案預期要到 2029 與 2030 年才會投產,這顯示在邏輯與記憶體領域,跨 5 年與 10 年期間的需求水準較先前規劃更高。

  • At Applied, we're already working with customers to forecast their needs through 2030. To support our customers' growth, we're investing to be able to double our systems output from Q4 '26 levels by 2028 and more than double our manufacturing and lab capacity by 2030. Next, I'll briefly summarize fiscal 2026 during which we grew revenue by over 21% to $34.4 billion, expanded non-GAAP gross margin by 130 basis points to 50.1% and increased non-GAAP EPS by 37% to $12.89. We generated double-digit revenue growth in Semi Systems and AGS and increased gross margins in both segments by around 150 basis points. Operating cash flow was $8.9 billion, up 11%.

    在應用材料,我們已與客戶合作,預測其至 2030 年的需求。為支援客戶成長,我們正投資以在 2028 年將系統產出相較於 2026 年第四季水準提升至兩倍,並在 2030 年前將製造與實驗室產能提高至兩倍以上。接下來,我將簡要總結 2026 會計年度:我們營收成長超過 21% 至 344 億美元,非 GAAP 毛利率擴張 130 個基點至 50.1%,非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 37% 至 12.89 美元。我們在半導體系統與 AGS 皆實現雙位數營收成長,且兩個部門的毛利率均提升約 150 個基點。營運現金流為 89 億美元,年增 11%。

  • And after $2.7 billion in capital expenditures, free cash flow was $6.2 billion, up 9%. We distributed over $4.7 billion to shareholders, including nearly $3.2 billion in stock buybacks and $1.6 billion in cash dividends. Turning to our Q4 results. We delivered the highest dollar growth in our history, generating record revenue of $10.4 billion, which is up 14% sequentially and 53% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 50.6%, up 20 basis points sequentially and 250 basis points year-over-year, driven by favorable mix effects and higher pricing.

    在 27 億美元資本支出之後,自由現金流為 62 億美元,年增 9%。我們向股東回饋超過 47 億美元,其中包括近 32 億美元的庫藏股回購與 16 億美元的現金股利。接著看第四季業績。我們創下公司史上最高的美元增量成長,營收達到創紀錄的 104 億美元,季增 14%、年增 53%。非 GAAP 毛利率提升至 50.6%,季增 20 個基點、年增 250 個基點,主要受惠於有利的產品組合效應與較高定價。

  • Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to a record 35.3%, up 130 basis points sequentially and 670 basis points year-over-year. We delivered strong operating leverage with non-GAAP OpEx as a percent of revenue declining by 430 basis points year-over-year to 15.2%, and we increased non-GAAP earnings per share to a record $4.16, up 19% sequentially and 92% year-over-year. We plan to drive further gross margin expansion by introducing more enabling products and sharing in the value they create for our customers. We also plan to further increase operating leverage and margins as our AI and automation strategies enable us to scale our support function capabilities with minimal increases in headcount. Turning to segment performance in Q4.

    非 GAAP 營業利益率擴張至創紀錄的 35.3%,季增 130 個基點、年增 670 個基點。我們展現強勁的營運槓桿:非 GAAP 營業費用(OpEx)占營收比重年減 430 個基點至 15.2%;非 GAAP 每股盈餘提升至創紀錄的 4.16 美元,季增 19%、年增 92%。我們計畫透過推出更多具賦能能力的產品,並分享其為客戶創造的價值,來推動毛利率進一步擴張。我們也計畫在 AI 與自動化策略的支持下,於人力編制僅小幅增加的情況下擴大支援職能能力,進一步提升營運槓桿與利潤率。接著看第四季各部門表現。

  • Semiconductor Systems delivered record revenue of $8 billion, up 14% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, including record sales in Korea and Taiwan. DRAM grew strongly as we expected it would, and we posted record revenue in both DRAM and advanced packaging. From a product perspective in Q4, we had record revenue in deposition across PVD, CVD, ALD and epitaxy. We also had record revenue in etch, CMP and process control. Segment non-GAAP gross margin increased 240 basis points year-over-year to 55.2%, and non-GAAP operating margin increased over 940 basis points year-over-year to 39%.

    半導體系統事業群創下 80 億美元的歷史新高營收,季增 14%、年增 64%,其中包含韓國與台灣的創紀錄銷售。DRAM 如我們預期般強勁成長,我們在 DRAM 與先進封裝兩方面皆創下營收新高。從第四季產品面來看,我們在沉積(deposition)領域的 PVD、CVD、ALD 與外延(epitaxy)皆創下營收新高。我們在蝕刻(etch)、CMP 與製程控制(process control)方面也同樣創下營收新高。事業群非 GAAP 毛利率年增 240 個基點至 55.2%,非 GAAP 營業利益率年增超過 940 個基點至 39%。

  • Applied Global Services delivered record revenue of $1.9 billion, up 26% year-over-year, reflecting record revenue in both services and spares. AGS gross margin grew 100 basis points year-over-year to 35.1%, and non-GAAP operating margin increased nearly 170 basis points to 30.5%. Other revenue of $517 million was in line with our expectations for the quarter. We generated record operating cash flow of $3.3 billion in Q4. Capital expenditures declined sequentially to $684 million, resulting in record free cash flow of $2.6 billion.

    應用材料全球服務(Applied Global Services)創下 19 億美元的歷史新高營收,年增 26%,反映服務與備品(spares)皆創下營收新高。AGS 毛利率年增 100 個基點至 35.1%,非 GAAP 營業利益率提高近 170 個基點至 30.5%。其他營收 5.17 億美元符合我們對本季的預期。我們在第四季創下 33 億美元的營運現金流新高。資本支出較前一季下降至 6.84 億美元,帶動自由現金流創下 26 億美元新高。

  • We distributed over $2.4 billion to shareholders, including $2 billion in stock buybacks and $421 million in cash dividends. We have $10.8 billion remaining in our share buyback authorization and continue to expect to distribute 80% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders over time. Now I'll share our business outlook for Q1, which, as a reminder, is a 14-week quarter, which benefits AGS revenue growth in the period. We expect company revenue of $11.1 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which is up 58% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $4.35, plus or minus $0.20, which is up 83% year-over-year.

    我們向股東回饋超過 24 億美元,其中包含 20 億美元的股票回購與 4.21 億美元的現金股利。我們的股票回購授權尚餘 108 億美元,並持續預期長期將自由現金流的 80% 至 100% 回饋給股東。接下來我將分享我們對第一季的業務展望;提醒一下,第一季為 14 週的季度,這將有利於期間內 AGS 營收成長。我們預期公司營收為 111 億美元,上下浮動 5 億美元;以中位數計算年增 58%。我們預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)為 4.35 美元,上下浮動 0.20 美元;年增 83%。

  • Within this outlook, we expect Semiconductor Systems revenue of around $8.7 billion, up 69% year-over-year; our first AGS quarter of $2 billion, up 28% year-over-year; and other revenue of around $400 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to increase to approximately 50.8%, up 170 basis points year-over-year, and we expect non-GAAP operating expenses of around $1.7 billion. We are modeling a non-GAAP tax rate of around 13%. Finally, to help with your modeling after the 14-week quarter, we expect AGS revenue to remain close to Q1 levels in Q2 and OpEx in Q2 to be around 15% of revenue. In summary, AI continues to add a fast-growing and incremental layer of demand to the industry.

    在此展望中,我們預期半導體系統營收約 87 億美元,年增 69%;AGS 首次達到 20 億美元的季度營收,年增 28%;其他營收約 4 億美元。我們預期非 GAAP 毛利率提升至約 50.8%,年增 170 個基點,並預期非 GAAP 營業費用約 17 億美元。我們預估非 GAAP 稅率約為 13%。最後,為協助您在 14 週季度之後進行模型推估,我們預期第二季 AGS 營收將維持接近第一季水準,而第二季營業費用(OpEx)約為營收的 15%。總結而言,AI 持續為產業帶來快速成長且增量的需求層。

  • The investments we've made to help enable this new wave have given us a rich and growing portfolio of highly enabling products and services. Our technology leadership in the most critical markets is now evident in our strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion. Our focus on operating leverage is producing record operating margins and contributing to strong cash flow and shareholder distributions, including the largest quarterly share buyback in over eight years. We continue to have long visibility from our customers, expect another strong record year in 2027 and are making substantial investments to be able to ramp to higher levels beyond next year. We have high confidence in our strategy and that we will demonstrate continuous progress on share gains, gross margin expansion and operating leverage.

    我們為協助推動這一波新趨勢所做的投資,使我們擁有豐富且持續擴大的高賦能產品與服務組合。我們在最關鍵市場的技術領先地位,如今已在強勁的營收成長與毛利率擴張中清楚展現。我們對營運槓桿的聚焦,帶來創紀錄的營業利益率,並促成強勁的現金流與股東回饋,其中包括八年多來最大的一次單季股票回購。我們持續從客戶端獲得長期能見度,預期 2027 年將再創強勁的紀錄年度,並正進行大幅投資,以便在明年之後能提升至更高的產能爬坡水準。我們對自身策略深具信心,並相信我們將在市占提升、毛利率擴張與營運槓桿方面展現持續進展。

  • Now Mike, let's start the Q&A.

    現在,Mike,我們開始問答環節。

  • Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Bryce. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

    謝謝你,Bryce。(接線員指示)接線員,請開始。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    C.J. Muse,Cantor Fitzgerald。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess first question, would love to hear how the demand environment has changed or evolved in the last three months. You talked about visibility into '28, '29. Would love to hear more of how those conversations are going and if you can be kind of specific around end market, foundry-logic, DRAM, NAND. And I guess as part of it, I think, Brice, you talked about doubling your system output but also doubling manufacturing and lab capacity by 2030. If you can kind of bridge what kind of growth you're implying overall for shipments into the '28 and then '30 time frame as part of it would be very helpful.

    是的,午安。謝謝讓我提問。我想先請教,過去三個月需求環境有什麼變化或演進?你們提到對 2028、2029 年的能見度。希望能多談談這些對話目前進展如何,以及若能就終端市場、晶圓代工/邏輯、DRAM、NAND 等面向更具體說明會很有幫助。另外,我想作為延伸,Brice,你提到到 2030 年要把系統產出翻倍,同時也要把製造與實驗室產能翻倍。若能說明你們在 2028 以及 2030 這些時間點所隱含的整體出貨成長幅度,將非常有幫助。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Sure. Nice to hear from you, C.J. So on the demand environment over the last 90 days, we've continued to see increases from customers. So we mentioned that we added more than 10 projects to our factory tracker. Those are fab -- new fab construction projects and existing fab conversions that are added, so that's the third quarter in a row that we've added more than 10 projects to the tracker.

    當然。很高興聽到你的聲音,C.J.。就過去 90 天的需求環境而言,我們持續看到客戶需求增加。如我們提到的,我們在工廠追蹤器(factory tracker)中新增了超過 10 個專案。這些新增項目包含新晶圓廠(fab)建廠專案與既有晶圓廠改造/轉換專案;這也是連續第三個季度,我們在追蹤器中新增超過 10 個專案。

  • So the environment continues to strengthen. We see that the leading-edge logic and DRAM market are constrained, so customers are looking to add in -- add capacity as much as possible and pull in projects where they can do. So the environment continues to be similar to prior quarters where it continues to strengthen from that perspective. And then on capacity investments, we are increasing our capacity. By 2028, we'll be able to double our output.

    因此,整體環境持續轉強。我們看到先進製程邏輯與 DRAM 市場供給受限,因此客戶正尋求盡可能增加產能,並在可行之處提前導入專案。所以從這個角度來看,環境與前幾季類似,並持續走強。至於產能投資,我們正在提升自身產能。到 2028 年,我們將能把產出翻倍。

  • So we just had an $8 billion quarter, so you can calculate that. That will be a capacity capability that we'll have.

    我們剛剛才交出一個 80 億美元的季度,所以你可以據此推算。那將是我們所具備的產出能力。

  • And then since we're not fully loaded today, doubling the output is one thing. Doubling our capacity is another thing, which we'll accomplish by 2030. So that will allow an even greater level of output. The way we think of it is we have to have the capacity to cover all ranges of scenarios from an output perspective, and we're definitely looking at the growth rate that continues to pick up and making sure that we'll have the capacity to accomplish that. And then we're also sharing all this information with our suppliers.

    另外,由於我們目前尚未滿載,產出翻倍是一回事。產能翻倍則是另一回事,我們將在 2030 年前達成。這將使我們能達到更高水準的產出。我們的思考方式是:我們必須具備足以涵蓋各種情境下產出需求範圍的產能;我們也確實看到成長率持續加速,因此要確保我們具備完成這些目標的產能。同時,我們也正與供應商分享所有這些資訊。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • C.J., one thing I would add beyond the leading-edge foundry-logic and DRAM, which are being driven by AI, advanced packaging is another area that we see tremendous demand from customers. We talked about our business being up 90% in calendar year. We see very strong growth in '27 and also going forward in that segment also.

    C.J.,除了由 AI 驅動的先進製程晶圓代工/邏輯與 DRAM 之外,我還想補充一點:先進封裝也是我們看到客戶需求非常強勁的另一個領域。我們提到過,我們的相關業務在曆年成長了 90%。我們也看到該事業在 2027 年以及往後都將有非常強勁的成長。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • Very helpful. And a quick follow-up. If you could speak to kind of the work you're doing with your suppliers and your suppliers' suppliers, are you kind of funding, giving upfront deposits? I would love to hear kind of how you're facilitating what should be another tremendous kind of growth vector over the coming 2, 3 plus years?

    非常有幫助。我再追問一個快速問題。能否談談你們與供應商以及供應商的供應商之間正在進行的工作?你們是否在提供資金支持、或支付預付款/訂金?我很想了解你們如何促成未來 2、3 年以上可能出現的另一個非常可觀的成長動能?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • C.J. We talk about having over 2,000 suppliers and everybody needs to increase their output. And the first thing we've done is made sure we've got all of the data coming from our customers and getting to our suppliers. We talk about the 8-quarter forecast. We're getting that data to them.

    C.J. 我們談到擁有超過 2,000 家供應商,而每個人都需要提高產出。我們做的第一件事,是確保所有來自客戶的資料都能傳到我們這邊,並進一步傳遞給供應商。我們談到 8 個季度的預測。我們正在把那些資料提供給他們。

  • We're getting it in detail so that they can plan their output. The second thing that we're doing is working closely with the actual schedules for each quarter as we go through those 8 quarters of the year. And as far as investments, I think all the suppliers are incentivized to make these investments and grow their own profitability. So we don't see any issues there. And from a what's it look like?

    我們提供得很細,讓他們可以規劃產出。我們正在做的第二件事,是在一年這 8 個季度的推進過程中,與每一季的實際排程緊密合作。至於投資,我認為所有供應商都有誘因去做這些投資並提升自身獲利能力。所以我們不認為那裡會有任何問題。至於「看起來會怎樣?」

  • We don't see any roadblocks to the higher levels of demand that are being envisioned. There will be plenty of pinch points that we talk about. So just about all the suppliers need to add capacity and add labor, so we're working on that with each of them.

    對於所設想的更高需求水準,我們看不到任何障礙。當然會有很多我們提到的瓶頸點。因此幾乎所有供應商都需要擴充產能並增加人力,我們正與每一家一起推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

    UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. Brice, I'm wondering if you can give us just a sense of what the mix is assumed for fiscal Q1. And I ask because DRAM was up a ton for fiscal Q4, so I'm wondering if you think it will be up a lot again. Just if you can give us like a sense of what the mix looks like.

    非常感謝。Brice,我想請你大概說一下你們對財年第一季(Q1)假設的產品組合。我這樣問是因為 DRAM 在財年第四季(Q4)大幅成長,所以我想知道你是否認為它在 Q1 也會再大幅上升。如果可以的話,請給我們一個大概的組合樣貌。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, we're expecting similar trends looking at Q1, where DRAM and leading logic will be very strong. We think both of those end markets are constrained, so customers are doing whatever they can to increase capacity as rapidly as possible. So we actually see a similar mix to what we saw in Q4. And as we look through the year for '27, we expect that to stay about the same, so leading-edge DRAM and advanced packaging being the strongest growers for the year. And what's changing for us in '27 is that ICAPS, the mature logic technologies.

    是的,我們預期 Q1 會有類似的趨勢,DRAM 與先進邏輯會非常強勁。我們認為這兩個終端市場都受產能限制,因此客戶正盡其所能以最快速度擴充產能。所以我們實際上看到的組合會與 Q4 類似。而展望 2027 年全年,我們預期大致維持不變,因此先進 DRAM 與先進封裝將是全年成長最強的領域。而我們在 2027 年看到的變化是 ICAPS,也就是成熟邏輯技術。

  • That looks like it will start to grow again and see greater investment in '27 as the market has digested the capacity and is getting normal from a capacity utilization perspective.

    看起來它將在 2027 年重新開始成長,並在市場消化既有產能、從產能利用率角度回到較正常水準後,看到更高的投資。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Maybe one thing I would also add, Tim, is that relative to the ICAP's growth in '27, it's going to be growing much faster in non-China versus China.

    Tim,我可能還要補充一點:相較於 ICAPS 在 2027 年的成長,它在非中國市場的成長速度會遠快於中國市場。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Okay. Good. So Gary, I just wanted to ask, so the stock market sometimes leads fundamentals but not always. And we know that there is a mismatch between what the supply chain is building in terms of gigawatts that will be ready from a shell point of view versus what the chips are being built. So have you seen lately in the past, I don't know, few weeks or months or anything, have you seen any customers come to you and said, Hey, seems great, but I might not want to take that tool exactly when I thought I would.

    好的。很好。所以 Gary,我想問的是,股市有時會領先基本面,但不一定總是如此。我們也知道,供應鏈從「廠房外殼(shell)」角度可就緒的吉瓦(gigawatts)建置量,與晶片實際建置之間存在不匹配。所以你最近在過去幾週或幾個月之內,有沒有看到任何客戶來找你說:嘿,看起來很棒,但我可能不想在原本預期的時間點接收那台設備(tool)。

  • And so maybe I want to take that a quarter or two or like a month or two later.? Are you seeing any of that? Or is literally everyone pushing to get tools as fast as they can?

    所以也許我想延後一到兩個季度,或延後一兩個月?你有看到這種情況嗎?還是說真的每個人都在盡可能快地把設備拿到手?

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, very clear. The answer is no. Nobody is saying that they're not wanting the tools as fast as we can get them. I've been traveling quite a bit over the last couple of months, and we're constantly receiving requests from customers to accelerate our ramp and deliver earlier.

    沒有,非常明確。答案是否定的。沒有人表示不想以我們能提供的最快速度拿到設備。過去幾個月我出差相當頻繁,我們持續收到客戶要求加速爬坡、提前交付的請求。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Thank you, Jerry.

    謝謝你,Jerry。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

    美國銀行證券(Bank of America Securities)的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Gary, I wanted to ask the last question in a slightly different way, which is let's say, there are -- if there is any slowdown in data center build-out, right, whether it is next year and it impacts, whether it's next year or 2028, what do you think that does to WFE forecast? Do you think your customers are planning this deployment for the long term, so they're not going to be fazed, right, by a slowdown, right, any short-term slowdown? Just how should investors think about the impact on the semicap industry if there is any temporary or a little bit extended slowdown in the build-out of data centers?

    謝謝讓我提問。Gary,我想用稍微不同的方式問上一題:假設資料中心建置出現任何放緩,對吧,不論是明年並造成影響,或是發生在明年或 2028 年,你認為這會如何影響 WFE(晶圓廠設備)預測?你覺得客戶是在做長期部署規劃,因此不會因為短期放緩而受到太大影響嗎?如果資料中心建置出現任何暫時性或稍微延長的放緩,投資人應該如何看待其對半導體設備產業的影響?

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Thanks for the question. So as I mentioned on the last question, what I'm seeing in some of our leading customer CEOs I'm meeting on a monthly basis is really requesting for us to ramp faster. I think demand in all of those areas, especially the ones that are being driven by AI, leading foundry-logic, DRAM and advanced packaging, demand is significant. And as you know, it takes time to ramp capacity.

    是的,謝謝你的問題。如同我在上一題提到的,我每月都會與一些領先客戶的 CEO 會面,我看到的是他們真的在要求我們更快地爬坡。我認為在所有這些領域,特別是由 AI 驅動的那些——先進晶圓代工邏輯、DRAM 與先進封裝——需求都非常顯著。而且如你所知,擴產需要時間。

  • So I mean, you have to start with a view of computing demand and everything we see, everything I hear when I'm talking to companies through the ecosystem, computing demand is going to continue to go higher. And so I don't see any signs from people that they're concerned about ramping too quickly. It's really the opposite where people want us to pull in and ramp faster. I don't know, Brice, if you want to add any color.

    所以我的意思是,你必須先從運算需求的觀點出發;我們看到的一切、以及我在與生態系中的公司交流時聽到的一切,都顯示運算需求將持續上升。因此我看不到有人擔心擴產爬坡太快的跡象。反而是相反:大家希望我們把時程往前拉、加快爬坡。我不知道,Brice,你要不要補充一些看法。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yes, I'll just add the point, Vivek, probably no surprise, but supply exceeds demand, especially DRAM and leading logic. So there's some buffer there between -- I'm sorry, sorry, demand exceeds supply. So there's some buffer there.

    好的,我補充一點,Vivek,這大概不令人意外,但供給小於需求,特別是在 DRAM 與先進邏輯。所以中間有一些緩衝——抱歉、抱歉,是需求大於供給。所以中間有一些緩衝。

  • And then we have markets that are underserved at this point also. So we have the PC market. You've got smartphone markets that are constrained, smart TVs that are constrained. So we think there's a considerable amount of buffer in the market even if data center were to have less demand over the next couple of years. And I think Gary highlighted, that's not what we're seeing, just to be clear.

    另外,目前也有一些市場是供給不足的。例如 PC 市場。智慧型手機市場也受限,智慧電視也受限。所以我們認為,即使未來幾年資料中心需求變得較弱,市場仍有相當可觀的緩衝空間。而我想 Gary 也強調了,為了說清楚,這並不是我們目前看到的情況。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • All right. Very helpful. And for my follow-up, if I look at last year, when the year started, I think the expectation was that you would grow your Semi Systems over 20%, right? And now the actual number is likely to be closer to 40%, right? So you grew much faster.

    好的。非常有幫助。我的追問是,如果我回看去年,年初時市場預期你們的半導體系統(Semi Systems)會成長超過 20%,對吧?而現在實際數字可能更接近 40%,對吧?所以你們成長快得多。

  • And there was the same conservatism around availability of clean room and so forth. So what got better through last year? And then I guess the real question is that when you were saying the industry will grow 30%, is that a line in the sand? Like, what can help the industry grow faster than 30%? Like why can't the same thing that happened in '26 happen in '27 also? Thank you.

    當時也同樣對無塵室可用性等等抱持保守看法。那麼去年過程中有哪些因素變得更好?然後我想真正的問題是:當你說產業將成長 30% 時,那是一條「底線/界線」嗎?有哪些因素可以幫助產業成長快於 30%?為什麼 2026 年發生的同樣事情,不能在 2027 年也發生?謝謝。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, Vivek, great question. So we do think it's governed by clean room and clean room availability. Now to your point, all through last year, customers were able to either add clean room, pull in projects.

    是的,Vivek,問題問得很好。所以我們確實認為這主要受無塵室以及無塵室可用性所支配。就你提到的點而言,去年一整年,客戶都能夠新增無塵室、把專案提前導入。

  • Work on projects that increase the output from their factories by doing upgrades and those sorts of things. So those are the tools that customers have to increase output. I think the macro equation at the end of the day is guided by the clean room that can become available.

    投入能透過升級等方式提高工廠產出量的專案。所以這些就是客戶用來提升產出的工具。我認為歸根結底,宏觀上的方程式是由可釋出的無塵室產能所引導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

    Stacy Rasgon,Bernstein Research。

  • Stacy Raskin - Analyst

    Stacy Raskin - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

    嗨,各位。謝謝你們回答我的問題。

  • First, so if you grow equipment, you're going to grow equipment more than 40% in '26.

    首先,如果你們設備業務成長,那你們在 2026 年的設備成長會超過 40%。

  • What do you think WC actually is growing on a percentage basis in 2026? And given you see WC growing more than 30% in '27, do you think we should expect the same kind of outperformance in '27 relative to WC that we're seeing in '26?

    你們認為 2026 年 WFE(晶圓廠設備)實際上以百分比計會成長多少?另外,既然你們看到 2027 年 WFE 成長超過 30%,你們認為我們是否應該預期 2027 年也會出現與 2026 年相同、相對於 WFE 的超額表現?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Hi, Stacy. Yeah, we do think that WFE. That we're outperforming WFE in '26, and we expect that in '27 also, and that's on the strength of our top positions in leading logic, DRAM and advanced packaging and the strong mix to those being the fast-growing markets. So I think greater than 40% for our business and whatever our business is slightly less than that for WFE for '26.

    嗨,Stacy。是的,我們確實認為在 2026 年我們會跑贏 WFE,而我們也預期 2027 年同樣如此;這主要來自我們在先進邏輯、DRAM 與先進封裝的領先地位,以及這些快速成長市場帶來的強勁產品組合。所以我認為,我們的業務成長會超過 40%,而 WFE 在 2026 年的成長會比我們略低一些。

  • Stacy Raskin - Analyst

    Stacy Raskin - Analyst

  • So my follow-up. You had some competitors pulling out near-term supply constraints that actually impacted their outlook in the next quarter. Are you actually seeing any of this? It sounded like the same kind of stuff that you guys will be buying anyways. Are you seeing any of that? Is that actually, I mean, as strong as the outlook is, it impaired in any way by supply constraints and would it be higher if you weren't seeing anything or if you're seeing anything at all?

    那我追問一下。你們有些競爭對手提到近期供應受限,甚至影響了他們下一季的展望。你們實際上有看到這種情況嗎?聽起來像是你們本來就會採購的同類型項目。你們有看到嗎?也就是說,儘管展望很強,是否在任何程度上受到供應限制的影響?如果沒有這些限制,會不會更高?或者你們到底有沒有看到任何限制?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yes, Stacy, good question. As I've highlighted, there's a few pinch points from a supply perspective. Our Q1 number would be slightly higher if everything were perfectly available. It's not a major impact, but we are working closely with all the suppliers. You saw three sequential quarters of more than double-digit growth as we went through the year. And supply chain is just reacting greatly, and we're working hard to increase the output, and we expect to increase the output every quarter this year.

    是的,Stacy,問題很好。如我先前強調的,從供應角度來看確實有幾個瓶頸點。如果所有東西都能完全到位,我們第一季的數字會略高一些。影響不算重大,但我們正與所有供應商密切合作。你也看到我們在去年一路走來連續三個季度都有超過兩位數的季增成長。供應鏈正在非常積極地回應,我們也在努力提高產出,並預期今年每一季都能提升產出。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Stacy, I would add, at least for me, as I'm engaging with all of our customers, they want us to ship as fast as we can. I mean, just demand is very strong. Compute demand is very strong. And as Bryce said, I think our teams have done a really great job. In ramping, but we have more work to do in '27, but we are in a very strong position to outperform going forward.

    Stacy,我補充一下,至少就我而言,當我與我們所有客戶互動時,他們希望我們能以最快速度出貨。我的意思是,需求非常強勁。運算需求非常強勁。而且如 Bryce 所說,我認為我們的團隊在擴產爬坡方面做得非常好。在 2027 年我們還有更多工作要做,但我們處於非常有利的位置,未來將持續跑贏。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, guys.

    了解。謝謝各位。

  • Stacy Raskin - Analyst

    Stacy Raskin - Analyst

  • Appreciate it.

    感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Atif Malik from Citi.

    花旗(Citi)的 Atif Malik。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have a question on the DRAM roadmap. One of the memory makers is going to pursue 3D DRAM versus 4F square, and I know you guys have done a good job in the master classes covering the technology. If you can just remind us about Applied Materials product positioning and opportunity on one versus another.

    嗨,謝謝你們回答我的問題。我想問 DRAM 的技術路線圖。其中一家記憶體製造商將走 3D DRAM 而不是 4F 方形(4F square),我知道你們在大師課程中對這些技術有很好的說明。能否請你們再提醒一下,應用材料(Applied Materials)在兩種路線上的產品定位與機會各是什麼?

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Thanks for the question. One thing I would do is point to the investor breakfast, and there was a slide in there where we show the foundry-logic technology nodes and DRAM technology nodes. And what you see there in DRAM is, as you go to new versions of 6F2, we're gaining share. And then as you go to 4F2 and 3D DRAM, our servable market is increasing and our share is increasing multiple points.

    好的,謝謝你的問題。我想先請你參考投資人早餐會,那裡有一張投影片展示了晶圓代工/邏輯的技術節點以及 DRAM 的技術節點。你會看到在 DRAM 方面,隨著你走向新版的 6F2,我們正在提升市占。接著當你走向 4F2 與 3D DRAM 時,我們可服務市場(SAM)在擴大,而我們的市占也提升了好幾個百分點。

  • So from Applied Materials' standpoint, DRAM is a very strong segment for us. We're much larger than our nearest process equipment competitors. We're in very deep co-innovation relationships with every one of these different companies. So for Applied, we're in a good position. Certainly, a 6F2 adoption continues, and you have new transistors for higher-speed bandwidth on those chips.

    所以從應用材料的角度來看,DRAM 對我們而言是一個非常強勁的領域。我們的規模遠大於最接近的製程設備競爭對手。我們與每一家不同公司都建立了非常深入的共同創新(co-innovation)關係。因此對 Applied 來說,我們處於很好的位置。當然,6F2 的採用仍在持續,而且在這些晶片上也會導入新的電晶體,以提供更高速的頻寬。

  • And then as you go to 4F2 and 3D DRAM, we showed in that breakfast that our SAM share is increasing for 4F2 and 3D DRAM. We also show the SAM per 100,000 wafer starts increasing significantly as you go from 6F2 to 4F2 and then 3D DRAM. So again, from Applied's standpoint, we are deeply engaged with every one of these companies, and we have the most enabling technologies for these major inflections. So again, this is an area where we have very, very deep co-innovation relationships.

    接著當你走向 4F2 與 3D DRAM 時,我們在那場早餐會中也展示了,我們在 4F2 與 3D DRAM 的 SAM 份額正在提升。我們也展示了,當你從 6F2 走到 4F2 再到 3D DRAM 時,每 10 萬片晶圓開工(wafer starts)對應的 SAM 會顯著增加。因此,再次強調,從 Applied 的角度,我們與每一家這些公司都深度合作,而且在這些重大轉折點上,我們擁有最具賦能性的技術。所以再說一次,這是我們擁有非常、非常深度共同創新關係的領域。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Thank you, Gary. And Bryce, for the AGS part, you mentioned growing 20% annually and service revenue per tool also growing 20%. So how should you think about AGS growth for next year?

    謝謝你,Gary。那 Bryce,關於 AGS 的部分,你提到每年成長 20%,而且每台設備的服務營收也成長 20%。那我們應該如何看待明年 AGS 的成長?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yes, we've highlighted. Mid-teens, so think 15% for the horizon, the way I would think about that is the installed base grows 5% to 10% each year and the revenue per tool grows 5% to 10% each year, so giving you a total of approximately 15%. This year, we grew faster.

    是的,我們已經強調過。中十位數成長,所以以 15% 來看待未來一段時間;我的思考方式是,裝機量(installed base)每年成長 5% 到 10%,而每台設備的營收每年成長 5% 到 10%,合計大約就是 15%。今年我們成長得更快。

  • The benefiting from the increase in utilization across the whole ecosystem. So we're close to 100%. So you don't get that unique benefit again in the forward years. But those are the two building blocks, and we expect to continue to build new products that help the customers ramp and get the highest yields.

    主要受惠於整個生態系統的稼動率提升。所以我們接近 100%。因此在未來年度你不會再得到同樣的獨特紅利。但這就是兩個基本構成要素,而我們也預期會持續推出新產品,協助客戶加速爬坡並取得最高良率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sanker, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sanker,TD Cowen。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. Bryce, I just want to follow-up on the component, the supply question.

    嗨,謝謝你們回答我的問題。Bryce,我想就零組件供應的問題再追問一下。

  • It seems like you're not adding inventory as much and days of inventories was also down in 10 days. I'm wondering why wouldn't you be more aggressive in adding inventory? And along the same path, you kind of Jason started on AGS in April. Any idea to think about Semi Systems in April quarter and then a quick follow-up?

    看起來你們增加庫存的幅度不大,而且庫存天數也下降了 10 天。我想知道,為什麼你們不更積極地增加庫存?另外同一條脈絡上,Jason 在四月季度開始談到 AGS。對於四月季度的半導體系統(Semi Systems)有什麼看法?然後再一個快速追問?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, thanks, Chris. Nice to hear from you. So we added just over $300 million of inventory in the quarter, $6.9 billion of inventory.

    是的,謝謝你,Chris。很高興聽到你的聲音。所以我們在本季新增了略高於3億美元的庫存,庫存總額達69億美元。

  • And I think it's fair. I would like to have even more inventory. So we're working on that with the suppliers. And I'll just highlight again, we had three quarters of double-digit increases in output. So we're definitely pushing the system and we'll continue working on that as we go through the year. And it's a good point, we would like to have more inventory.

    我認為這是合理的。我其實希望庫存能更多一些。所以我們正與供應商一起努力。我再強調一次,我們已經連續三個季度實現產出兩位數成長。因此我們確實在推動整個系統,我們也會在今年持續推進這項工作。而且你提得很好,我們確實希望能有更多庫存。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Any color on April quarters any systems?

    能否談談4月季度、有哪些系統方面的情況?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, nothing specific at this point, yeah, what we said was we expect to increase output every quarter this year as we work with the supply chain.

    是的,目前沒有特別具體的內容;我們之前說過,隨著我們與供應鏈合作,我們預期今年每一季都會提高產出。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • I know if a quick follow-up, Gary, this year it seems like when you started the year to ending the year, DRAMWP actually grew pretty substantially. A lot of it was conversion driven. How do you think about it in 2017? Do you think conversions slow down and greenfield picks up? Or do you think conversions continue for next year?

    我知道,快速追問一下,Gary,今年看起來從年初到年末,DRAM 的晶圓投片量(WP)其實成長相當顯著。其中很大一部分是由轉換(conversion)所驅動。你怎麼看2017年?你認為轉換會放緩、綠地新建(greenfield)會加速嗎?還是你認為明年轉換仍會持續?

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think our customers are doing everything they can to increase output, everything they can do on upgrades and certainly much more aggressive investments in greenfield. So I would say both. One thing that I've seen more so than any point in my career is the focus on yield and output innovation. We talked about this in the investor breakfast. Every customer that I'm talking to, they want more good chips per wafer, and they want more wafers out.

    我認為我們的客戶正在盡其所能提高產出,能做的升級都在做,並且在綠地新建方面的投資也明顯更積極。所以我會說兩者都會。我在職涯中從未像現在這樣看到大家如此聚焦於良率與產出創新。我們在投資人早餐會上也談過。我正在交流的每一位客戶,都希望每片晶圓能產出更多良品晶片,也希望能拉出更多晶圓。

  • So I would say that -- and again, these -- I traveled quite a bit over the last couple of months with all of our leading customers. This is creating tremendous pull for our AGS business. We talked about having over 37,000 chambers connected to these AI-enabled AIx servers. And Tim Deane in the investor breakfast talked about what we're doing in advanced matching, in predictive models for preventative maintenance, a number of innovations that we're driving in our service business that I really think is going to accelerate our service growth, and certainly, that's incredibly valuable for customers. So I see, again, more pull there in yield innovation and output innovation than I've ever seen in my career.

    所以我會說——而且再強調一次——過去幾個月我與我們所有主要客戶頻繁出差交流。這正在為我們的 AGS 業務帶來非常強勁的拉動。我們談到已有超過37,000個腔體連接到這些具AI能力的 AIx 伺服器。而 Tim Deane 在投資人早餐會上也談到我們在先進匹配、用於預防性維護的預測模型等方面所做的工作;我們在服務業務中推動的一系列創新,我確實認為將加速我們的服務成長,當然,這對客戶而言也極具價值。所以我再次強調,我看到在良率創新與產出創新方面的拉動,比我職涯中任何時候都更強。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harlan Sur, JP Morgan.

    JP Morgan 的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. On your process control segment, the team is anticipating 50% plus growth this calendar year. That's faster than your overall system segment growth, combination of strength in your e-beam and optical portfolio.

    是的,下午好。謝謝讓我提問。關於你們的製程控制(process control)部門,團隊預期本曆年成長超過50%。這比你們整體系統部門的成長更快,主要來自你們電子束(e-beam)與光學產品組合的強勁表現。

  • Next year, you have the launch of your advanced packaging inspection platform, but next year is also biased towards aggressive technology migration and therefore strong focus on yield and cost. Given this sort of backdrop, does the Apply team anticipate PDC outgrowing your overall semi-system of business next year as well?

    明年你們將推出先進封裝檢測平台,但明年也更偏向積極的技術遷移,因此會更聚焦於良率與成本。在這樣的背景下,Applied 團隊是否預期 PDC 明年也會繼續跑贏你們整體半導體系統業務的成長?

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Harlan. So as you said, this year, we're growing over 50% in both our eBeam and our optical businesses and of course, for the business overall. Just there's really tremendous pull. Our eBeam is leading. We're 2x bigger than our nearest competitor.

    謝謝你,Harlan。如你所說,今年我們的 eBeam 與光學業務都成長超過50%,當然整體業務也是如此。市場拉動確實非常強。我們的 eBeam 處於領先地位。我們的規模是最接近競爭對手的兩倍。

  • And that's increasingly important as our customers are driving these big architecture inflections. eBeam, you can't fix what you can't see. We can look into structures and uniquely improve yield, and that has also tremendous synergies. I think Keith, in the investor breakfast, did a great job showing the synergies between this leadership that we have with our eBeam imaging and then how we're accelerating our process equipment innovations to enable device architecture inflections for our customers. So I would say, again, that synergy is stronger than it's ever been.

    而且當客戶推動這些重大的架構拐點時,這變得愈來愈重要。eBeam 的價值在於:看不見就無法修正。我們能夠觀測結構內部並以獨特方式提升良率,這也帶來非常大的協同效應。我認為 Keith 在投資人早餐會上很清楚地展示了這些協同:我們在 eBeam 成像上的領先,如何與我們加速製程設備創新相結合,來協助客戶實現裝置架構的拐點。所以我會說,這種協同效應比以往任何時候都更強。

  • The pull from our customers are very strong, and we have very strong product pipeline. So in eBeam, we'll bring to market some really important new innovations that are critical for our customers to accelerate their road maps. And in optical, you mentioned advanced packaging. We have a number of big innovations in our optical business that I feel very optimistic about. So I would say that PDC will see very strong growth, again, in '27, and I think overall Applied, we'll also see strong growth in '27.

    客戶端的拉動非常強,我們也有非常強的產品管線。因此在 eBeam 方面,我們將把一些對客戶加速其路線圖至關重要的新創新推向市場。而在光學方面,你提到了先進封裝。我們在光學業務上也有多項重大創新,我對此非常樂觀。所以我會說,PDC 在'27年仍將實現非常強勁的成長,而我也認為 Applied 整體在'27年同樣會有強勁成長。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Thanks for that, Gary. And then for Bryce, AGS, another quarter of strong growth, second consecutive quarter, 30% plus operating margins, incremental operating margins sort of in this high 30s, low 40% range, that's for the third consecutive quarter.

    謝謝你,Gary。接著問 Bryce:AGS 又是一個強勁成長的季度,連續第二個季度,營業利益率超過30%,增量營業利益率大約在30%後段到40%初段區間,這已是連續第三個季度。

  • Is this how we should think about the operating margin trajectory on future revenue growth and maybe a little bit longer-term within your calendar 30, total corporate operating margin target of 40%? What's your assumption for AGS operating margins within that?

    對於未來營收成長下的營業利益率走勢,我們應該如何看待?以及在更長期、你們以曆年30年為目標的公司整體40%營業利益率之下,你對 AGS 在其中的營業利益率假設是什麼?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, thanks, Harlan. We do expect to continue to advance operating margins and gross margins in AGS. And what you see is. With new products being launched, those products have a lot of value for customers in terms of yield and output management, and that's helping with our margin growth. So definitely a contributor to the overall targets for the company.

    是的,謝謝你,Harlan。我們確實預期 AGS 的營業利益率與毛利率會持續提升。而你所看到的是——隨著新產品推出,這些產品在良率與產出管理方面為客戶帶來很高的價值,這正在推動我們的利潤率成長。因此這肯定會對公司整體目標有所貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    Goldman Sachs 的 Jim Schneider。

  • Jim Schneider - Analyst

    Jim Schneider - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you can maybe comment on the pace of gross margin expansion you expect over, say, the next four or six quarters. Obviously, you're getting some good uplift in Q1, maybe talk about what's driving that aside for mix and maybe talk about how much operational improvement or pricing improvement you could see over the course of the next year?

    下午好。謝謝讓我提問。我想請你們評論一下,未來四到六個季度你們預期毛利率擴張的速度。顯然你們在第一季有一些不錯的提升;能否談談除了產品組合(mix)之外,還有哪些因素在驅動?以及未來一年你們可能看到多少營運改善或定價改善?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Hi, Jim, thanks for the question.

    嗨,Jim,謝謝你的問題。

  • What we're seeing, we have some ramp costs that are being overcome by the yield i'm sorry, by the output increases that we're having and also price increases for our tools as we launch new tools that are more and more valuable for customers.

    我們看到的是:有一些爬坡成本(ramp costs)正在被——抱歉——被我們的產出提升所抵消,同時隨著我們推出對客戶價值愈來愈高的新工具,我們的設備價格也在上調。

  • So really the dynamics that we see is a faster growing semi-market helps with gross margins and then the pricing helps with gross margins. In the Q4 just printed and in our Q1 outlook, we've got some ramp costs as we're adding.

    所以我們看到的動態是:半導體市場成長更快有助於毛利率,而定價也有助於毛利率。在剛公布的第四季以及我們對第一季的展望中,隨著我們增加(產能/資源),仍有一些爬坡成本。

  • Employees and training employees for the higher level of ramp, that's the other side of the equation for us. But in general, we expect to continue to advance gross margin as we go through the year, and I think you can sort of judge the pace by what you see in Q4 and Q1.

    我們這邊等式的另一面,是我們在增加員工並訓練員工,以支援更高水準的爬坡。但整體而言,我們預期今年會持續推進毛利率提升;你大致可以從第四季與第一季所呈現的情況來判斷其節奏。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jim, maybe let me add that I think the setup for us is very positive. We are leading in the fastest growing parts of the market, the leading foundry, logic, DRAM and advanced packaging.

    Jim,也許讓我補充一下,我認為對我們而言整體態勢非常正面。我們在市場中成長最快的領域居於領先地位,包括領先的晶圓代工、邏輯、DRAM,以及先進封裝。

  • And as we talked about in the Investor Breakfast, we are enabling these major architecture innovations for our customers. We're bringing.

    而且如同我們在投資人早餐會中談到的,我們正在為客戶實現這些重大的架構創新。我們正在帶來。

  • High value products to the market and that gives us a tailwind in terms of our semi systems gross margin. So I would expect that we'll continue to drive that forward. And as I talked about earlier on the call, this value for the yield and output innovation in our services also is incredibly valuable. So we're very well positioned there. I would expect '27, you're going to see.

    高價值產品進入市場,這在我們半導體系統毛利率方面帶來順風。因此我預期我們會持續推動這一點向前。另外如同我先前在電話會議中提到的,我們服務業務在良率與產出創新上的價值也極其可觀。所以我們在那方面的定位非常好。我預期在 '27 年,你會看到。

  • Significant progress in margins and then also going forward as these new devices ramp, our positions there are very strong, the value we're creating very strong is very strong and it puts us in a good position to share value with customers as those new technologies ramp.

    毛利率將有顯著進展;此外,隨著這些新裝置放量,我們在那裡的地位非常強,我們所創造的價值也非常強,這讓我們在新技術放量時,能處於與客戶分享價值的有利位置。

  • Jim Schneider - Analyst

    Jim Schneider - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks. And then as we look into fiscal '27, can you maybe comment on sort of what you expect from China? I'm assuming you're expecting the growth to be better than it was in '26, but maybe not as good as the overall market. And maybe just comment on China's impact on gross margins too.

    這很有幫助。謝謝。接著,當我們展望 2027 財年時,你能否談談你對中國的預期?我假設你預期成長會比 '26 年好,但可能不如整體市場。也請談談中國對毛利率的影響。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Hi, Jim. You've got the right dynamic with the fast growth in leading-edge DRAM advanced packaging that we're seeing.

    嗨,Jim。你對於我們所看到的先進製程 DRAM 與先進封裝快速成長的動態判斷是正確的。

  • We do expect to see growth in China, but it won't be as fast as those markets that are being pulled by AI. So our share that's related to China or our shipments to China will probably be less than 25% of the business as we look into '27.

    我們確實預期中國會成長,但不會像那些受 AI 拉動的市場成長得那麼快。因此,展望 '27 年,我們與中國相關的占比或我們對中國的出貨,可能會低於整體業務的 25%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Casso, Wolfe Research.

    Chris Casso,Wolfe Research。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks. Good afternoon.

    是的,謝謝。下午好。

  • So your first question is with regard to some of the clean room space constraints that you discussed in your remarks. And it sounds like that's...

    所以你的第一個問題是關於你在發言中提到的一些無塵室空間限制。聽起來那是……

  • One of the main constraints on shipments as you go into next year. You spoke about having eight quarters of visibility.

    你們進入明年後出貨的主要限制之一。你提到你們有八個季度的能見度。

  • What are you seeing into '28? Obviously, not providing guidance at this point, but if you could talk about what you're seeing in terms of your customers' cleanroom availability as you go into '28, do we get to a point where we can see accelerated WFE growth based on cleanroom availability? Do we still. Stay tight as an industry in '28 where cleanroom still becomes a constraint even beyond '27.

    那你們在 '28 年看到了什麼?當然你們目前不提供指引,但如果可以談談,隨著你們進入 '28 年,在客戶無塵室可用性方面你們看到了什麼?我們是否會到達一個點,基於無塵室可用性而看到 WFE 成長加速?我們是否仍然。在 '28 年整個產業仍然吃緊,無塵室甚至在 '27 年之後仍會成為限制因素?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Hi, Chris. I think the best way to picture this is it's an expanding envelope each year. So we talked about how each quarter companies have added projects. A lot of those projects, for example, this quarter, more than 10 projects added. A large number of them are in '29 and '30 in terms of when those factories open up. And so as customers continue to add to the road map, it expands every year, but especially in the out years. So I would think of it as an expanding equation where you should expect the WFE market to continue to grow as more and more clean room is added each year and that matches our expectation. We highlighted at that same investor breakfast that the growth rate for WFE that we experienced the last 10 years, we expect it. To be larger as we look forward, and it's really this AI demand that's incremental to what we've seen in the past.

    嗨,Chris。我認為最好的理解方式是:每一年都是一個擴張的邊界。我們談到每一季公司都會新增專案。例如本季新增了超過 10 個專案。其中相當多的專案,工廠開出時間點是在 '29 與 '30 年。因此,隨著客戶持續把專案加入路線圖,這個邊界每年都在擴張,尤其是在更遠期的年度。所以我會把它視為一個不斷擴張的方程式:你應該預期 WFE 市場會隨著每年新增越來越多的無塵室而持續成長,而這也符合我們的預期。我們在同一場投資人早餐會也強調,過去 10 年我們所經歷的 WFE 成長率,我們預期。展望未來會更高,而真正的原因是 AI 需求相較於過去所見帶來了增量。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • As a follow-up question, something else you folks talked about at the investor breakfast on hybrid bonding. And could you give us an update on that and kind of outlook and timing given what you're seeing in the industry.

    追問一個問題:你們在投資人早餐會也談到混合鍵合(hybrid bonding)。你能否就此提供最新進展,以及基於你們在產業中看到的情況,談談展望與時程?

  • And particularly as AI demand is increasingly driven by inference, what does that have, what impact does that have on hybrid bonding adoption?

    特別是當 AI 需求越來越由推論(inference)驅動時,這對混合鍵合的採用會有什麼影響?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, I'll start and I think today we see that in leading logic for some of the 3D packaging solutions and then we know all the memory customers are evaluating it for HBM and that's in process, you'll to talk to them about actual insertion and adoption points.

    是的,我先說。我認為目前我們看到在先進邏輯的一些 3D 封裝解決方案中已有應用;另外我們也知道所有記憶體客戶都在評估將其用於 HBM,這正在進行中,你需要和他們談實際導入與採用的時間點。

  • But we think it's a very important technology. We think it's critical to the 3D and advanced packaging market and obviously we're making investments there.

    但我們認為這是一項非常重要的技術。我們認為它對 3D 與先進封裝市場至關重要,顯然我們也正在那方面投資。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think relative to power and performance, hybrid bonding is very important for IO density and shortening the wiring length. So when I'm engaging with all of our customers, this is a prime topic.

    是的,我認為就功耗與效能而言,混合鍵合對 I/O 密度提升與縮短佈線長度非常重要。因此當我與我們所有客戶互動時,這都是一個核心議題。

  • So we're seeing adoption in high-volume manufacturing in logic. But again, this is a very important technology for power and performance going forward. And we talked about this in the Investor Breakfast.

    所以我們看到在邏輯的量產製造中已有採用。但同樣地,展望未來,這是一項對功耗與效能非常重要的技術。我們在投資人早餐會中也談過這點。

  • We serve about 80% of the steps for hybrid bonding. And we're in a very strong position in that market. We're certainly a very strong position in high bandwidth memory stacking.

    我們在混合鍵合約 80% 的製程步驟中提供設備。而且我們在該市場的地位非常強。我們在高頻寬記憶體堆疊方面也確實處於非常強勢的位置。

  • We have a very high share, and all of that's contributing to our very strong growth in packaging in '26. And for sure, hybrid bonding will be adopted. Further in both logic and memory, and again, Applied is in a really good position with our partnership with BESI in hybrid bonding, but also in all of those adjacent steps, Applied has very strong positions, and that will enable us to drive significant packaging growth going forward.

    我們的市占非常高,而這些都在推動我們 '26 年封裝業務的強勁成長。而且可以確定的是,混合鍵合將會在邏輯與記憶體中進一步被採用。同樣地,Applied 透過與 BESI 在混合鍵合上的合作夥伴關係處於非常有利的位置;同時在所有相鄰的製程步驟上,Applied 也擁有很強的地位,這將使我們能在未來推動顯著的封裝成長。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Quattrocki, Wells Fargo.

    Joe Quattrocki,Wells Fargo。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks for taking the questions.

    是的,謝謝讓我提問。

  • Just given it sounds like you think that non-China ICAP strengthens next year and maybe even China grows as well, why should we not think about your outperformance at WMP maybe accelerating in 2027, both to '26?

    既然聽起來你們認為明年非中國的 ICAP 會轉強,甚至中國也可能成長,那為什麼我們不應該認為你們在 WMP 的優於大盤表現可能在 2027 年加速,相較於 '26 年?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • We do expect to see rest of world investments. I think when you look at the customers worldwide, that digestion that we talked about the last few years with all the incremental investment in China, looks like it's completing its cycle, so some of the rest of world customers are looking at capacity increases and an increased level of investment and then in China, we expect to see that also and I'll just say focusing in on China.

    我們確實預期會看到世界其他地區的投資。我認為當你看全球客戶時,我們過去幾年談到的那種因中國增量投資而產生的消化期,看起來正在完成其週期,因此一些非中國客戶正在考慮擴產與提高投資水準;而在中國,我們也預期會看到同樣情況。我先聚焦談中國。

  • For the customers that we can serve, our addressable market in China, we think we're gaining share in 2026, and we think that's on the strength of mostly 28-nanometer type investments. So we feel good about execution in China, and we'll continue to serve that market as we go forward.

    對於我們能夠服務的客戶而言,我們在中國的可服務市場(addressable market),我們認為在 2026 年正在提升市占,而這主要來自 28 奈米類型的投資力道。因此我們對在中國的執行感到樂觀,並將在未來持續服務該市場。

  • Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

    Joe Quatrochi - Analyst

  • And maybe as a follow-up, you increased the advanced packaging growth rate again.

    另外作為追問,你們再次上調了先進封裝的成長率。

  • Maybe could you help us understand just, what's from HVM versus Foundry Logic and then also how do we think about that into '27?

    能否協助我們理解一下,HVM 相較於晶圓代工邏輯(Foundry Logic)各自貢獻了哪些部分,以及我們該如何把這些因素延伸看待到 2027 年?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Yeah, so we've increased each quarter and that really is like the rest of the equation where we saw additional projects and additional capacity being requested as we went through the year.

    是的,所以我們每一季都在上調,而這其實就像方程式的其餘部分:隨著今年推進,我們看到更多專案、以及客戶要求更多產能。

  • From the advanced packaging market, a large portion of that in 2026 is HBM-related packaging, and that sees tremendous growth in 2026.

    就先進封裝市場而言,2026 年其中很大一部分是與 HBM 相關的封裝,而這在 2026 年會出現非常可觀的成長。

  • Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gary Dickerson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'd say 2027 also, HBM remains very strong. And going forward, what our customers are focused on are new packaging architectures. They want to make the body sizes as large as they can. And Applied has invested to create the leading portfolio for those inflections. And so, again, as I'm engaging with all of these customers on a constant basis, this is an incredibly important focus for all of them because. Connectivity for AI compute performance is really important. So again, that portfolio that we've created over the last several years and that we've added to with some big innovations, also the acquisition of Next, that gives us a tailwind into '27 and going forward.

    我會說 2027 年也是,HBM 仍然非常強勁。展望未來,我們客戶關注的是新的封裝架構。他們希望把封裝本體尺寸做得越大越好。而 Applied 已投入資源,打造在這些轉折點上領先的產品組合。因此,再次強調,當我持續與所有這些客戶密切互動時,這對他們每一家而言都是極其重要的重點,因為。AI 運算效能的連結性(connectivity)非常重要。所以,我們在過去幾年建立的產品組合,加上若干重大創新,以及對 Next 的收購,為我們帶來延伸到 2027 年及往後的順風。

  • Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thanks. And operator, we have time for one more question, please.

    謝謝。接線員,我們還有時間再接一個問題,麻煩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的 Melissa Weathers。

  • Melissa Weathers - Analyst

    Melissa Weathers - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for squeezing me in. And sorry if I missed this, but as we think about the growth in 2027 and the shape of how that year is going to shape up, any way that we should be thinking about like first half versus second-half, I don't know if there's some big clean room dynamics that we should be making sure we have in our models or capacity coming online. Just any color on first half versus second-half dynamics next year?

    嗨,謝謝讓我插進來提問。如果我漏聽了也先抱歉,但當我們思考 2027 年的成長以及那一年會呈現的走勢時,我們是否應該用某種方式去看待上半年相較於下半年?我不確定是否有一些大型無塵室(clean room)相關的動態,需要我們在模型裡特別納入,或是產能上線的節奏。能否提供一些關於明年上半年與下半年動態的補充說明?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Hi, Melissa, it's Bryce. Nice to hear your voice. We expect to increase output every quarter as we go through the year. So I think that gives you a perspective on the shape. I don't think there is much from a cleanroom dynamics that's not known at this point.

    嗨,Melissa,我是 Bryce。很高興聽到你的聲音。我們預期在一年當中每一季都會提高產出。所以我想這能讓你對走勢形狀有個概念。就無塵室動態而言,我不認為目前還有太多未知的部分。

  • Melissa Weathers - Analyst

    Melissa Weathers - Analyst

  • Got it. And then on the other business, I know it's tiny, but I think if I remember from last quarter, you guys talked about some resegmenting from the panel business out of that. So just high level on that other business, can you remind us what the trajectory is? And I think also there might be a gross margin headwind there. So just any modeling color on the other business would be helpful.

    了解。另外關於「其他」業務,我知道它很小,但如果我沒記錯,上季你們提到把面板業務中的某些部分重新分段(resegmenting)移出。所以就高層次來說,能否提醒我們「其他」業務的走勢是什麼?而且我想那裡可能也會有毛利率的逆風。因此,任何有助於建模的「其他」業務補充資訊都會很有幫助。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Sure. On other, which is the collection of our non-reportable operating segments in the company, the largest one is Display. Display had a strong quarter in Q4 '26, over $500 million.

    當然。「其他」是指公司內未達可報導標準的營運部門之集合,其中最大的是顯示器(Display)。顯示器業務在 26 年第 4 季表現強勁,超過 5 億美元。

  • We said that we would tell you if it changed in terms of its performance. So that business, think of the gross margins in the 40% range and the operating margins in the '20s.

    我們也說過,如果它的表現有變化,我們會告訴各位。因此,該業務的毛利率可視為約 40% 區間,營業利益率在 20% 多的水準。

  • And what we've said is for the foreseeable future, please model that business as approximately $400 million per quarter from a revenue perspective. So that's where we are right now. So put in $400 million for Q1 and then for future quarters, and we'll let you know when it changes. And then that other segment will be approximately breakeven as we move through the quarters, the profits from.

    而我們所說的是,在可預見的未來,請把該業務的營收以每季約 4 億美元來建模。這就是我們目前的狀況。所以第 1 季先放入 4 億美元,未來各季也同樣處理;若有變化我們會再通知。另外,隨著季度推進,「其他」部門整體大約會接近損益兩平,因為來自顯示器業務的利潤會投入到我們其他相鄰領域(adjacencies)——也就是 Gary 在投資人早餐會上提到、我們正投資以作為相鄰成長的那些業務。

  • The display business are spent in our other adjacencies, the businesses that Gary highlighted at our investor breakfast that we're investing in as adjacencies to grow.

    顯示器業務的利潤會花在我們其他相鄰領域上,也就是 Gary 在投資人早餐會上強調、我們正投入資源作為相鄰成長的那些業務。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks, Bryce.

    太好了。謝謝你,Bryce。

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Yeah. Thanks, Melissa, for your question. And Bryce, would you like to give us your closing thoughts for today?

    好的。謝謝你,Melissa,謝謝你的提問。Bryce,你要不要為今天做個結語?

  • Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

    Brice Hill - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Global Information Services

  • Sure, Mike. I'm pleased that the investments we've made are driving strong financial results, including record quarterly revenue growth and continued gross margin expansion. We look forward to seeing many of you here in Santa Clara this quarter and at conferences, including RBC in New York, UBS in Scottsdale, Wells Fargo in Dana Point, and Barclays in San Francisco. Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.

    當然,Mike。我很高興我們所做的投資正在帶動強勁的財務成果,包括創紀錄的單季營收成長,以及毛利率持續擴張。我們期待本季在聖塔克拉拉與各位中的許多人見面,也會在多場會議上見到大家,包括紐約的 RBC、史考茲戴爾(Scottsdale)的 UBS、達納岬(Dana Point)的富國銀行(Wells Fargo),以及舊金山的巴克萊(Barclays)。Mike,我們就結束這通電話吧。

  • Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Sullivan - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • All right, great. Thanks, Bryce. And I'd like to let you know that a replay of today's call is going to be available on the IR page of our website by 5:00 Pacific time today. And we'd really like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

    好的,很好。謝謝你,Bryce。也提醒各位,今天電話會議的重播將於今日太平洋時間下午 5:00 前,於我們網站的投資人關係(IR)頁面提供。我們非常感謝各位持續關注 Applied Materials。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝各位女士先生參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以掛線。