應用材料 (AMAT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would like turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加應用程式材料公司收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）我想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2024 財年第一季財報電話會議。與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson；以及我們的財務長布萊斯希爾 (Brice Hill)。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K filing with the SEC. Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on our website at ir.appliedmaterials.com.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用程式材料公司最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格中。今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。 GAAP 衡量標準的調整可在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們的網站 ir.appliedmaterials.com 上找到。

Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On Monday evening, February 26, Applied will host a panel at the SPIE Advanced Lithography + Patterning conference in San Jose. Joining us will be leading experts from NVIDIA, Intel, IMEC and Siemens EDA. We'll also have demo stations with several new products and technologies we'll be introducing at the event. There won't be a webcast, so we hope you'll join us in San Jose.

在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。 2 月 26 日星期一晚上，應用材料公司將在聖荷西舉辦的 SPIE 高級光刻 + 圖案化會議上舉辦專題小組討論。加入我們的將有來自 NVIDIA、Intel、IMEC 和西門子 EDA 的頂尖專家。我們還將設有演示站，展示我們將在活動中推出的多種新產品和技術。不會有網路廣播，所以我們希望您能在聖荷西加入我們。

And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

介紹完畢後，我想將電話轉給加里·迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. Applied Materials made a strong start to fiscal 2024 with first quarter revenue in the high end of our guidance and earnings that exceeded our guided range. Our inflection-focused innovation strategy is delivering results. We have outperformed our markets for 5 consecutive years and believe we are in a great position as customers transition major new chip innovations to high-volume production over the next several years.

謝謝你，麥克。應用材料公司在 2024 財年取得了良好的開局，第一季收入處於我們指導的高端，盈利超出了我們的指導範圍。我們以變形為中心的創新策略正在取得成果。我們已經連續 5 年跑贏市場，並相信隨著客戶在未來幾年將主要的新晶片創新過渡到大批量生產，我們處於有利地位。

The breadth of our technology capabilities, combined with our deep customer relationships, allows us to see inflections early and accelerate key technology innovations that are critical to scaling AI, IoT, electric vehicles and renewable energy. We have reshaped and expanded our portfolio of solutions that enable next-generation transistors, new interconnect schemes, including backside power delivery, high-performance DRAM, including high-bandwidth memory, and specialty applications in the ICAPS market.

我們廣泛的技術能力，加上深厚的客戶關係，使我們能夠及早發現變化並加速關鍵技術創新，這對於擴展人工智慧、物聯網、電動車和再生能源至關重要。我們重塑並擴展了我們的解決方案組合，支援新一代電晶體、新互連方案（包括背面供電）、高效能 DRAM（包括高頻寬記憶體）以及 ICAPS 市場的特殊應用。

In my prepared remarks today, I'll provide some examples of how these inflections grow Applied's available market and are highly accretive to our share. I'll also talk about our long-term strategy to accelerate innovation and commercialization velocity through tighter collaboration with our customers and partners. But to begin, let me share our latest perspective on the market environment.

在我今天準備好的演講中，我將提供一些例子，說明這些變化如何擴大應用材料公司的可用市場並大大增加我們的份額。我還將討論我們的長期策略，即透過與客戶和合作夥伴更緊密的合作來加快創新和商業化速度。但首先，讓我先分享一下我們對市場環境的最新看法。

In our discussions with customers, we're hearing that overall market dynamics are improving. There is a reacceleration of capital investment by cloud companies. Fab utilization is increasing across all device types, and memory inventory levels are normalizing.

在與客戶的討論中，我們了解到整體市場動態正在改善。雲端公司的資本投資重新加速。所有設備類型的晶圓廠利用率都在增加，並且記憶體庫存水準正在正常化。

In terms of Applied's business in 2024, we see leading-edge foundry logic being stronger year-over-year even though some important projects are delayed. We're forecasting ICAPS demand to be slightly lower than 2023 with weakness in some end markets being offset by strong regional investments. We expect our NAND revenues to be up year-on-year but NAND to remain less than 10% of total wafer fab equipment spending. And we see continued strength in our DRAM business driven by customers ramping production of high-bandwidth memory.

就應用材料公司 2024 年的業務而言，儘管一些重要項目被推遲，但我們認為領先的代工邏輯將逐年增強。我們預計 ICAPS 需求將略低於 2023 年，部分終端市場的疲軟將被強勁的區域投資所抵消。我們預計 NAND 收入將同比增長，但 NAND 仍佔晶圓廠設備支出總額的 10% 以下。我們看到，在客戶提高高頻寬記憶體產量的推動下，我們的 DRAM 業務持續強勁。

High-bandwidth memory, where high-performance DRAM dies are stacked and connected to logic die with advanced packaging, is a key enabler for the AI data center. The dies used in high-bandwidth memory are more than 2x larger than standard DRAM, which means that more than twice the capacity is needed to produce the same volume of chips.

高頻寬記憶體是人工智慧資料中心的關鍵推動因素，其中高效能 DRAM 晶片堆疊並連接到採用先進封裝的邏輯晶片。高頻寬記憶體中使用的晶片比標準 DRAM 大 2 倍以上，這意味著生產相同體積的晶片需要兩倍以上的容量。

On top of this, the packaging steps needed for die stacking further increase our total available market. High Bandwidth Memory or HBM made up only about 5% of DRAM output in 2023 but is expected to grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate over the coming years. DRAM is a great example of how our inflection-focused innovation approach is working, by focusing on the critically enabling process and packaging steps for next-generation technologies, Applied has significantly increased our share of the DRAM market.

最重要的是，晶片堆疊所需的封裝步驟進一步增加了我們的可用市場總量。 2023 年，高頻寬記憶體 (HBM) 僅佔 DRAM 產量的 5% 左右，但預計未來幾年將以 50% 的複合年增長率成長。 DRAM 是我們以變形為中心的創新方法如何運作的一個很好的例子，透過專注於下一代技術的關鍵支援流程和封裝步驟，應用材料公司顯著增加了我們在 DRAM 市場的份額。

In 2023, we estimate that our DRAM share was more than 10 points higher than it was a decade earlier. And our DRAM revenues were larger than our 2 closest process equipment peers combined. We're also best positioned for future growth, thanks to our leadership in logic technologies that have been implemented for DRAM peripheral circuitry applications to enable significantly increased IO speeds, our strong position in DRAM patterning, our unique co-optimized hard mask solutions, which are critical for capacitor scaling, and advanced packaging, where we have strong leadership positions in micro bump and through-silicon via that will enable multiple generations of high-bandwidth memory.

到 2023 年，我們估計 DRAM 份額比十年前高出 10 個百分點以上。我們的 DRAM 收入超過了兩個最接近的工藝設備同行的總和。我們也為未來的成長做好了最好的準備，這要歸功於我們在DRAM 外圍電路應用中實施的邏輯技術方面的領先地位，以顯著提高IO 速度、我們在DRAM 圖案化方面的強大地位、我們獨特的共同優化的硬掩模解決方案，這對於電容器縮放和先進封裝至關重要，我們在微凸塊和矽通孔方面擁有強大的領導地位，這將使多代高頻寬記憶體成為可能。

In fiscal 2024, we expect our HBM packaging revenues to be 4x larger than last year, growing to almost $0.5 billion. And across all device types, we expect revenue from our advanced packaging product portfolio to grow to approximately $1.5 billion. Looking further ahead, we see opportunities for this business to double again as heterogeneous integration is more widely adopted and we introduce new products that expand our served market.

到 2024 財年，我們預計 HBM 封裝收入將是去年的 4 倍，成長至近 5 億美元。在所有設備類型中，我們預計先進封裝產品組合的收入將成長至約 15 億美元。展望未來，隨著異質整合的更廣泛採用以及我們推出的新產品擴大我們服務的市場，我們看到該業務有機會再次翻倍。

Another key inflection that will transition to high-volume production beginning this year is gate-all-around transistors in leading-edge foundry logic. These complex 3D structures can provide a more than 30% improvement in a chip's energy efficiency. This is especially enabling for high-performance AI data center applications. The shift from FinFET to gate-all-around grows Applied's available market by $1 billion for every 100,000 wafer starts per month of capacity. And we're on track to gain share and capture over 50% of the spending for the process equipment used in this new transistor module.

將從今年開始過渡到大批量生產的另一個關鍵變化是前緣代工邏輯中的全柵電晶體。這些複雜的3D結構可以讓晶片的能源效率提高30%以上。這尤其適合高效能人工智慧資料中心應用。從 FinFET 到全柵的轉變使應用材料公司的可用市場每月每生產 100,000 片晶圓產能增加 10 億美元。我們預計將獲得市場份額，並佔據此新型電晶體模組所用製程設備 50% 以上的支出。

Major advances in leading-edge foundry logic and DRAM are also driving the need for more and better metrology and inspection to be integrated into the manufacturing flow. We have developed industry-leading cold field emission eBeam technology that enables highly sensitive 2D and 3D imaging at up to 10x higher speeds. We expect our CFE systems revenue to grow by a factor of 4 in 2024 and represent 50% of our total eBeam system sales.

領先的代工邏輯和 DRAM 的重大進步也推動了將更多更好的計量和檢測整合到製造流程中的需求。我們開發了業界領先的冷場發射電子束技術，能夠以高達 10 倍的速度實現高度靈敏的 2D 和 3D 成像。我們預計到 2024 年，我們的 CFE 系統營收將成長 4 倍，占我們 eBeam 系統總銷售額的 50%。

The incredible innovation we see in the industry today is not limited to the leading edge. In recent years, ICAPS customers have invested about 10% of their revenues or about $30 billion annually in research and development to accelerate the road map for IoT, communications, automotive, power and sensor technologies. ICAPS technology depends less on shrinking device features, and customer investments are heavily weighted towards new structures, new materials and new integration approaches, playing to the core strengths of Applied.

我們今天在行業中看到的令人難以置信的創新不僅限於領先優勢。近年來，ICAPS 客戶每年將收入的約 10%（即約 300 億美元）投入研發，以加速物聯網、通訊、汽車、電力和感測器技術的發展。 ICAPS技術對縮小裝置功能的依賴較少，客戶投資主要集中在新結構、新材料和新整合方法上，發揮了應用材料公司的核心優勢。

ICAPS is another area where we saw market inflections early. And 5 years ago, we formed a dedicated team to focus on the needs of these customers. Since then, we've released more than 20 new ICAPS products that target the highest-value device innovations in these markets. And we have a robust development pipeline of unit process and integrated solutions.

ICAPS 是我們早期看到市場轉折點的另一個領域。 5年前，我們組建了一個專門的團隊來關注這些客戶的需求。從那時起，我們發布了 20 多種新的 ICAPS 產品，瞄準這些市場中最高價值的設備創新。我們擁有強大的單元流程和整合解決方案開發管道。

While major end market inflections such as AI and IoT, electric vehicles and renewable energy are already driving semiconductor growth and innovation, it's important to recognize they are still in the early stages of adoption. For example, high-performance GPUs for AI data centers only represent 6% of leading-edge foundry logic wafer starts today. The full potential of technologies like AI cannot be unlocked without next-generation chips with better performance, power and cost.

雖然人工智慧和物聯網、電動車和再生能源等主要終端市場變化已經推動了半導體的成長和創新，但重要的是要認識到它們仍處於採用的早期階段。例如，用於人工智慧資料中心的高效能 GPU 僅佔當今領先代工邏輯晶圓開工量的 6%。如果沒有具有更好性能、功耗和成本的下一代晶片，人工智慧等技術的全部潛力就無法釋放。

The technology road map for semiconductors is rich with possibilities and opportunities but also incredibly complex. No company is better placed to address this complexity than Applied Materials. With the industry's broadest and deepest portfolio of capabilities and products, we have a unique ability to combine, co-optimize and integrate our technologies to develop highly differentiated solutions for our customers.

半導體的技術路線圖充滿了可能性和機遇，但也極為複雜。沒有任何一家公司比應用材料公司更有能力解決這種複雜性。憑藉著業界最廣泛、最深入的能力和產品組合，我們擁有獨特的能力來組合、共同優化和整合我們的技術，為客戶開發高度差異化的解決方案。

To bring these advances to market faster, we're also innovating the way we innovate, by driving earlier and deeper collaboration with our customers and partners. We are expanding our global innovation network that will connect into the EPIC Center we're building in Silicon Valley. During the quarter, we announced an expansion of our long-term partnership with Leti, which is focused on accelerating ICAPS innovation, and we launched a new collaboration with MIT, which is centered around next-generation power electronics.

為了更快地將這些進步推向市場，我們還透過推動與客戶和合作夥伴更早、更深入的合作來創新我們的創新方式。我們正在擴大我們的全球創新網絡，該網絡將連接到我們在矽谷建設的 EPIC 中心。本季度，我們宣布擴大與 Leti 的長期合作夥伴關係，重點是加速 ICAPS 創新，並與麻省理工學院啟動了新的合作，重點是下一代電力電子裝置。

As industry complexity rises, we're also delivering more value to customers with our advanced services that enable our customers to accelerate R&D, transfer new technology into volume manufacturing faster and then optimize yield, output and cost in their factories.

隨著產業複雜性的增加，我們也透過先進的服務為客戶提供更多價值，使我們的客戶能夠加速研發，更快地將新技術轉化為批量製造，然後優化工廠的產量、產出和成本。

AGS has delivered 18 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth. Revenue for the first quarter was up 8% versus the same period last year, and the business is now at a $6 billion annual run rate. AGS has the opportunity for double-digit growth this year, and we believe we can sustain this growth rate into the future. A significant portion of AGS revenue is generated from subscriptions. We have almost 17,000 tools under service agreements, up 8% year-on-year. And these agreements have a very high renewal rate, over 90%.

AGS 已連續 18 個季度實現年成長。第一季的營收比去年同期成長了 8%，目前該業務的年營運率為 60 億美元。 AGS 今年有機會達到兩位數成長，我們相信未來能夠維持這一成長率。 AGS 收入的很大一部分來自訂閱。我們有近 17,000 個服務協議工具，較去年同期成長 8%。而且這些協議的續約率非常高，超過90%。

Before I pass the call over to Brice, I will quickly summarize. Applied Materials outperformed our markets in 2023 for the fifth consecutive year, and we delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2024. The positions we've established at key industry inflections will support continued outperformance as customers ramp next-generation chip technologies into high-volume production. We are strengthening R&D collaboration with customers and partners to drive innovation and commercialization velocity, improvements in mutual success rate and R&D investment efficiencies. And we see growing demand for our advanced services that are helping customers manage increasing complexity in their business as the industry scales.

在將電話轉接給布萊斯之前，我將快速總結一下。應用材料公司在2023 年連續第五年跑贏我們的市場，我們在2024 年第一季取得了強勁的業績。隨著客戶將下一代晶片技術推向高端，我們在關鍵行業拐點建立的地位將支持持續領先的表現。批量生產。我們正在加強與客戶和合作夥伴的研發合作，以推動創新和商業化速度，提高共同成功率和研發投資效率。我們看到，隨著行業規模的擴大，對我們先進服務的需求不斷增長，這些服務幫助客戶管理日益複雜的業務。

Now I'll hand over to Brice.

現在我將把任務交給布萊斯。

Thank you, Gary. And I'd like to thank our teams for delivering strong revenue and margins this quarter and making further improvements in our operating performance. On today's call, I'll discuss our value creation strategy and the results it is producing. Then I'll summarize our growth thesis and why we believe we will outperform our markets in the years ahead. Finally, I'll summarize our Q1 results and provide our guidance for Q2.

謝謝你，加里。我要感謝我們的團隊在本季度提供了強勁的收入和利潤，並進一步提高了我們的營運績效。在今天的電話會議上，我將討論我們的價值創造策略及其產生的結果。然後我將總結我們的成長論點以及為什麼我們相信我們將在未來幾年內跑贏大盤。最後，我將總結我們第一季的結果並為第二季提供我們的指導。

I'll begin by discussing how our assets and strategy create value for shareholders. Applied has the broadest and deepest process equipment portfolio and expertise in the industry. We are highly invested in collaborating with our customers, allocating $3 billion in annual R&D to invent new solutions to the most critical semiconductor manufacturing challenges.

我將首先討論我們的資產和策略如何為股東創造價值。應用材料公司擁有業界最廣泛、最深入的工藝設備組合和專業知識。我們在與客戶的合作方面投入了大量資金，每年投入 30 億美元進行研發，以發明新的解決方案來應對最關鍵的半導體製造挑戰。

Increasingly, the only way to solve these challenges is by co-optimizing and integrating our chamber technologies in new ways. In addition, identifying new materials and processes early and collaborating closely with customers leads to faster results, a higher probability of success, greater efficiency and stronger financial returns.

解決這些挑戰的唯一方法越來越多地是以新的方式共同優化和整合我們的腔室技術。此外，儘早識別新材料和新工藝並與客戶密切合作可以更快地獲得結果、更高的成功機率、更高的效率和更強的財務回報。

The benefits of our value creation strategy are being demonstrated in our financial results. We generated record equipment sales, $20.7 billion in calendar '23, including legacy equipment reported in AGS. And we extended our strong position in DRAM with record calendar year sales of over $4.3 billion. In fact, over the past 10 years, the company has gained over 10 points of DRAM share and multiple points of overall share. This has contributed to Applied delivering a fifth straight year of overall WFE share gains and one of the best share outcomes of the past 20 years.

我們的價值創造策略的好處正在我們的財務表現中反映出來。我們在 23 年創造了創紀錄的設備銷售額，達到 207 億美元，其中包括 AGS 報告的舊設備。我們鞏固了在 DRAM 領域的強勢地位，歷年銷售額超過 43 億美元，創歷史新高。事實上，在過去的10年裡，該公司的DRAM份額已經獲得了超過10個百分點，整體份額也獲得了多個百分點。這使得應用材料公司連續第五年實現 WFE 整體份額成長，並成為過去 20 年來最好的份額成果之一。

Over the same 10 fiscal years, we've grown company revenue at a compound rate of over 13%, non-GAAP EPS at nearly 30%, free cash flow at 33% and dividends per share at nearly 12%. Also, over this period, we increased return on invested capital from 8% to 35% and reduced net shares outstanding by over 30%.

在同一 10 個財年中，我們公司營收的複合成長率超過 13%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長近 30%，自由現金流成長 33%，每股股息成長近 12%。此外，在此期間，我們將投資資本回報率從 8% 提高到 35%，並將已發行淨股減少 30% 以上。

Next, I'll summarize our growth thesis. As we look out over the planning horizon, we expect Semiconductors to grow significantly faster than GDP. Second, we expect the equipment market to grow as fast or faster than semiconductors over time, driven by increasing technical complexity. Third, we expect Applied's equipment business to outgrow the market. And fourth, we expect our services business to grow as fast or faster than our equipment business.

接下來，我將總結我們的成長論文。展望未來，我們預期半導體產業的成長速度將明顯快於 GDP 成長速度。其次，在技術複雜性不斷增加的推動下，我們預計隨著時間的推移，設備市場的成長速度將與半導體市場一樣快或更快。第三，我們預期應用材料公司的設備業務成長將超過市場。第四，我們預期服務業務的成長速度與設備業務一樣快，甚至更快。

I'll take a moment to support the third pillar of our thesis that Applied's equipment business will outgrow the market. The reason is that our technologies enable the key semiconductor advances needed to drive growth in AI, IoT and renewable energy. Looking ahead to the semiconductor process inflections that will play out over the next several years, the company is extremely well positioned.

我將花點時間來支持我們論文的第三個支柱，即應用材料公司的設備業務將超過市場的成長。原因是我們的技術實現了推動人工智慧、物聯網和再生能源成長所需的關鍵半導體進步。展望未來幾年將出現的半導體製程變化，該公司處於非常有利的位置。

In data center AI, we are #1 in process equipment for advanced logic and compute memory, both standard DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. We also have line of sight to share of 50% or more in gate-all-around transistors, backside power delivery and advanced packaging. We are equally strong in edge AI and IoT with the #1 position in ICAPS silicon, which is used to sense and convert analog information and transmit it to the cloud. We are also innovating rapidly in ICAPS technology for the global energy transformation, including through new agreements with partners like Leti and MIT, which Gary described.

在資料中心人工智慧領域，我們在先進邏輯和運算記憶體（包括標準 DRAM 和高頻寬記憶體）的製程設備方面排名第一。我們還希望在全柵電晶體、背面供電和先進封裝領域佔據 50% 或更多的份額。我們在邊緣人工智慧和物聯網領域同樣強大，在 ICAPS 晶片領域排名第一，該晶片用於感知和轉換類比資訊並將其傳輸到雲端。我們也在 ICAPS 技術方面快速創新，以促進全球能源轉型，包括透過與 Leti 和 MIT 等合作夥伴達成新協議，正如 Gary 所描述的那樣。

In summary, we feel confident that our unique assets and collaboration strategy position Applied to continue to outpace our markets and deliver strong shareholder returns as these major inflections play out over the next several years.

總之，我們相信，隨著未來幾年這些重大變化的發生，我們獨特的資產和合作策略地位將繼續超越我們的市場，並為股東帶來強勁的回報。

Now I'll summarize our Q1 results. On a year-over-year basis, net sales declined slightly to $6.7 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin grew 110 basis points to 47.9%. Non-GAAP OpEx grew 5.6% to $1.23 billion. And non-GAAP EPS grew nearly 5% to $2.13.

現在我將總結我們第一季的結果。淨銷售額較去年同期小幅下降至 67 億美元。非 GAAP 毛利率成長 110 個基點，達到 47.9%。非 GAAP 營運支出成長 5.6%，達到 12.3 億美元。非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長近 5%，達到 2.13 美元。

Turning to our segment results. Semiconductor Systems revenue was strong at $4.91 billion and included record DRAM and etch system sales. Segment non-GAAP operating margin was 35.7%. While our operating expenses are primarily focused on R&D programs for emerging technology inflections, we are also investing to expand and diversify our manufacturing logistics and supply chain to efficiently serve future growth.

轉向我們的部門業績。半導體系統收入強勁，達到 49.1 億美元，其中包括創紀錄的 DRAM 和蝕刻系統銷售額。部門非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 35.7%。雖然我們的營運費用主要集中在新興技術變革的研發項目上，但我們也在投資擴大我們的製造物流和供應鏈並使其多樣化，以有效地服務未來的成長。

Applied Global Services delivered record revenue and its 18th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. AGS revenue increased approximately 8% year-over-year to nearly $1.48 billion, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was 28.3%. Our installed base surpassed 49,000 tools during the quarter and grew to nearly 200,000 chambers. Around 2/3 of AGS recurring services and parts revenue was delivered as subscription agreements. Finally, AGS continued to produce more than enough operating profit to fund Applied's growing dividend.

應用全球服務公司的營收創下歷史新高，連續第 18 季實現年比成​​長。 AGS 營收年增約 8%，達到近 14.8 億美元，部門非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28.3%。本季我們的安裝基礎超過 49,000 個工具，並成長到近 200,000 個腔室。 AGS 約 2/3 的經常性服務和零件收入以訂閱協議的形式提供。最後，AGS 繼續產生足夠的營業利潤來為應用材料公司不斷增長的股息提供資金。

Moving to display. Q1 revenue was $244 million, and segment non-GAAP operating profit was 10.2%. We continue to look forward to our opportunity in the upcoming OLED IT growth inflection.

移動到顯示。第一季營收為 2.44 億美元，部門非 GAAP 營業利潤為 10.2%。我們繼續期待在即將到來的 OLED IT 成長轉折點中的機會。

Turning to cash flows in Q1. We generated $2.3 billion in operating cash flow and $2.1 billion in free cash flow. We distributed $966 million to shareholders, including $266 million in dividends and $700 million in buybacks. We repurchased nearly 5 million shares at an average price of $152.60.

轉向第一季的現金流。我們產生了 23 億美元的營運現金流和 21 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東分配了 9.66 億美元，其中包括 2.66 億美元的股息和 7 億美元的回購。我們以 152.60 美元的平均價格回購了近 500 萬股股票。

Please note that our Q1 results include the following. First, as we discussed in our recent 10-K report, we increased the estimated useful lives of our plant equipment, and this increased non-GAAP EPS by $0.03. Also effective Q1, we refined the way we allocate stock-based compensation, moving the majority of the expenses from corporate unallocated to the operating segments, which gives managers greater visibility over costs. While the change has no impact on company operating profit or EPS, it reduces the segment operating profit and corporate unallocated costs proportionately. To help you with your segment models, our quarterly earnings presentation includes a table showing what operating profits would have been in fiscal 2022 and in each quarter of fiscal 2023 on a like basis. Finally, the reduction in depreciation and share-based compensation in cost of sales increased gross margin by approximately 40 basis points.

請注意，我們第一季的結果包括以下內容。首先，正如我們在最近的 10-K 報告中討論的那樣，我們延長了工廠設備的估計使用壽命，這使非 GAAP 每股收益增加了 0.03 美元。同樣從第一季開始，我們改進了分配股票薪酬的方式，將大部分費用從公司未分配的費用轉移到營運部門，這使管理人員能夠更好地了解成本。雖然這項變更對公司營業利潤或每股盈餘沒有影響，但它按比例減少了部門營業利潤和公司未分配成本。為了幫助您建立細分市場模型，我們的季度收益演示中包含一個表格，顯示 2022 財年和 2023 財年每季的營業利潤。最後，銷售成本中折舊和股權激勵的減少使毛利率增加了約 40 個基點。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q2. We expect revenue to be $6.5 billion, plus or minus $400 million. And we expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.97, plus or minus $0.18. Within this outlook, we expect Semi Systems revenue of around $4.8 billion, AGS revenue of about $1.5 billion and display revenue of around $150 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 47.3% and non-GAAP operating expenses to be around $1.235 billion. We are modeling a tax rate of 12.5%.

現在我將分享我們對第二季的指導。我們預計營收為 65 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.97 美元，上下浮動 0.18 美元。在此前景下，我們預期 Semi Systems 營收約為 48 億美元，AGS 營收約 15 億美元，顯示器營收約 1.5 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 47.3%，非 GAAP 營運費用約為 12.35 億美元。我們正在模擬 12.5% 的稅率。

Thank you. And now, Mike, let's begin the Q&A.

謝謝。現在，麥克，我們開始問答。

Thanks, Brice. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。 （操作員指示）操作員，我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

I wanted to ask about DRAM and China. So DRAM was very strong. It was supposed to be strong, but it was quite a bit stronger than I think we had thought it was going to be. I guess can you tell us how much of that was China versus non-China? And going forward, last quarter, you had talked about the expectations for the China piece of that, that had been pulled forward due to the sanctions to roll off as we went through the rest of the year. What are your thoughts on that China trajectory as we go into April quarter and into the second half?

我想問一下DRAM和中國的狀況。所以DRAM非常強大。它本來應該很強，但它比我想像的要強得多。我想你能告訴我們其中有多少是中國和非中國的嗎？展望未來，上個季度，您談到了對中國部分的預期，由於今年剩下的時間裡制裁措施的取消，這一預期被提前了。當我們進入四月季度和下半年時，您對中國的發展軌跡有何看法？

Stacy, thanks for your question. So in the current -- in the quarter we just closed, we did see high shipments of China DRAM. And we -- it was approximately the same in terms of the higher quantity as we saw in Q4. And just to be clear, we'll expect another quarter in Q2, in our outlook quarter, that it should remain elevated. I think for the Q4, we had said it was approximately $500 million increase on the DRAM side. That's probably a good estimate for all of those quarters.

史黛西，謝謝你的提問。因此，在當前——我們剛結束的這個季度，我們確實看到了中國 DRAM 的高出貨量。我們 - 就較高的數量而言，與我們在第四季度看到的數量大致相同。需要明確的是，我們預計第二季度的另一個季度，即我們的展望季度，它應該保持在較高水平。我認為對於第四季度，我們曾說過 DRAM 方面的成長約為 5 億美元。對於所有這些季度來說，這可能是一個不錯的估計。

And then the second part of the question, as we look through the rest of the year, we'll expect that to normalize. Our China mix should normalize from the levels it's at right now to something that's more typical with our average.

然後問題的第二部分，當我們回顧今年剩餘時間時，我們預計這種情況會正常化。我們的中國組合應該從現在的水平正常化到更符合我們平均水平的水平。

Which is what? Is that -- what's the typical?

哪個是什麼？那是——典型的是什麼？

Well, I would say from a long term -- from a many year perspective, we averaged approximately 30%. So if we're at 45% right now, we'll decline across the year to somewhere around that level.

嗯，我想說的是，從長期來看——從多年的角度來看，我們的平均水平約為 30%。因此，如果我們現在的成長率為 45%，那麼我們全年的成長率將下降到該水準附近。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I was hoping if you could give us your view on how you see the WFE environment in '24. I think many of your competitors have suggested kind of a low to mid-single-digit growth, but within that, the move towards more leading edge and DRAM and less on the trailing edge. But just given how strongly Applied grew in some of your trailing edge and ICAPS, how does that position you in this new WFE environment?

我希望您能告訴我們您對 24 年 WFE 環境的看法。我認為你們的許多競爭對手都建議實現低至中個位數的成長，但在此範圍內，將轉向更多的前沿和 DRAM，而不是後緣。但是，考慮到應用材料公司在一些落後優勢和 ICAPS 方面的強勁增長，這對您在這個新的 WFE 環境中的定位如何？

Because I think, Gary, you said that you only see only limited decline on the ICAPS side. But when I look at the CapEx of many of the auto industrial or analog companies in the U.S., they are cutting it quite sharply. So that's why I was curious why you think that it's only going to decline. So just broadly comment on WFE and the different piece parts and then maybe China versus non-China kind of cutting of that.

因為我認為，加里，你說過你只看到 ICAPS 方面的下降有限。但當我觀察美國許多汽車工業或模擬公司的資本支出時，他們正在大幅削減資本支出。所以這就是為什麼我很好奇為什麼你認為它只會下降。因此，只需對 WFE 和不同的部分進行廣泛的評論，然後可能會進行中國與非中國的切割。

Okay. Thanks, Vivek. No real change, I think, in our outlook for '24 in terms of shaping how those end markets are evolving. So we do think DRAM will continue to be a strong market. We think NAND will improve from its low levels a little bit. We think leading logic will be larger as gate-all-around and new investments start to ramp towards the back half of the year. And we do think there will be some digestion in ICAPS in China, both.

好的。謝謝，維韋克。我認為，就塑造這些終端市場的發展方式而言，我們對 24 年的展望沒有真正的改變。因此，我們確實認為 DRAM 將繼續成為一個強勁的市場。我們認為 NAND 將從低水平有所改善。我們認為，隨著下半年全面投資和新投資開始增加，主導邏輯將會更大。我們確實認為 ICAPS 在中國將會得到一定程度的消化。

Just to be crystal clear, we had enormous growth for 2 years in ICAPS and the China-related ICAPS business. And so we won't see that enormous growth this year. It may be a little bit smaller. We think there's some digestion with that capacity. But we expect that market to grow over time along with the underlying rates for the company. So that's -- those -- the shape of those end markets hasn't changed in our outlook.

需要明確的是，兩年來我們的 ICAPS 以及與中國相關的 ICAPS 業務取得了巨大的成長。因此，今年我們不會看到如此巨大的成長。它可能會小一點。我們認為這種能力有一定的消化作用。但我們預計該市場將隨著公司的基本利率而隨著時間的推移而成長。所以，在我們的展望中，這些終端市場的形態並沒有改變。

So is that consistent with the low to mid-single-digit WFE that others are suggesting? Or do you have a different view?

那麼這與其他人建議的低至中個位數的 WFE 一致嗎？或者您有不同的看法？

Well, all we can do is tell you what we see from Applied's perspective. When we commented on '23, we said it was a strong year for Applied. And to the way you asked your question, we had strong ICAPS. We had strong DRAM. We were strong in growth in packaging. And so as we look toward '24, those are the puts and takes. We're not going to give a precise number for '24.

好吧，我們所能做的就是告訴您我們從應用材料公司的角度看到的情況。當我們評論 '23 時，我們說這是應用材料公司強勁的一年。從你提出問題的方式來看，我們有很強的 ICAPS。我們有強大的 DRAM。我們在包裝領域成長強勁。因此，當我們展望 24 世紀時，這些都是我們的看法。我們不會給出 24 日的準確數字。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自坎托·菲茨杰拉德 (Cantor Fitzgerald) 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess given the strong outperformance that you showed in '23, where your silicon business actually grew where I think most people are thinking WFE down in the high single digits, curious how you're thinking about 2024. You've talked about, clearly, you're benefiting from share gains across leading-edge foundry logic and DRAM, but also a vision for ICAPS slowing. So do you think it's another year of outperformance? Or is it a year of digestion? If you could kind of walk through that. And just as a kind of a bonus question, with SPIE just a little over a week away, would you care to give a preview of what we'll hear, including a focus on Sculpta?

我猜考慮到您在23 年表現出的強勁表現，您的晶片業務實際上增長了，我認為大多數人都將WFE 降到了高個位數，好奇您如何看待2024 年。您已經清楚地談到了，您將受益於領先代工邏輯和 DRAM 的份額增長，但同時也有 ICAPS 放緩的願景。那麼您認為今年又是表現出色的一年嗎？還是消化的一年？如果你能經歷一下的話。作為一個額外的問題，距離 SPIE 只剩下一周多一點了，您是否願意預覽我們將聽到的內容，包括對 Sculpta 的關注？

Okay. So I'll tackle the first part, and then I know Gary wants to tackle the second part of the question. So on outperforming in '24, C.J., we do expect because of our exposure to the fast-growing markets and some of the inflections growing quickly in '24, we do expect to outperform. We're not making a call on the size of the market. It's like you said. There's a couple of markets that are growing. The ICAPS market and the China piece, we think won't grow. And so we're not making a call on which is the stronger trend. And I don't know if we know. So we'll see how the year plays out from that perspective. And Gary, on the show.

好的。所以我將解決第一部分，然後我知道加里想要解決問題的第二部分。因此，關於 24 年的跑贏大盤，C.J.，我們確實預計，由於我們對快速增長的市場的敞口以及 24 年快速增長的一些變化，我們確實預計會跑贏大盤。我們不會談論市場的規模。就像你說的。有幾個市場正在成長。我們認為 ICAPS 市場和中國市場不會成長。因此，我們不會判斷哪個趨勢更強。我不知道我們是否知道。因此，我們將從這個角度看看今年的情況如何。還有加里，在節目中。

Just let me start on the outperformance. I think the most important thing to think about is how we're positioned for major inflections. So if you think about foundry logic leading edge, gate-all-around, backside power distribution, those are incremental billion-dollar opportunities for Applied, where we have an opportunity for more than 50% share, which is very accretive to our overall market share. So we're really well positioned there.

讓我從表現出色開始。我認為最重要的是要考慮我們如何應對重大變化。因此，如果你考慮代工邏輯前沿、全閘極、背面配電，這些對應用材料公司來說都是數十億美元的增量機會，我們有機會獲得超過50% 的份額，這對我們的整體市場非常有幫助。分享。所以我們在那裡處於有利位置。

ICAPS, we formed that group 5 years ago, as I said earlier. 20 major new products have been introduced. We have a strong pipeline of future ICAPS products. And so again, they're -- and we have opportunities to grow in segments like etch and PDC, where we have a lot of momentum. So I like our position in ICAPS.

正如我之前所說，ICAPS，我們五年前就成立了這個小組。推出20個重大新產品。我們擁有強大的未來 ICAPS 產品線。再說一次，我們有機會在蝕刻和 PDC 等領域實現成長，我們在這些領域擁有很大的動力。所以我喜歡我們在 ICAPS 中的地位。

DRAM, we've gained more than 10 points of share over the last 10 years. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, extremely well positioned for the major inflections in DRAM. In packaging, we have the strongest and broadest portfolio. And this is around $1.5 billion of revenue for us in '24 and an opportunity to double over the next few years. So all of those areas, I think, really set us up for continued outperformance.

DRAM，我們在過去 10 年裡獲得了超過 10 個百分點的份額。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，對於 DRAM 的主要變化，我們處於非常有利的位置。在包裝方面，我們擁有最強大、最廣泛的產品組合。這對我們來說是 24 年約 15 億美元的收入，並且有機會在未來幾年內翻倍。因此，我認為，所有這些領域確實為我們持續取得優異表現奠定了基礎。

And then on your question about SPIE, one of the things we'll be talking about there is Sculpta. Just reminding people, that's a breakthrough pattern shaping technology that provides a simpler, faster and more cost-effective alternative to EUV double patterning. So we're engaged with all of the leading foundry logic customers and expanding Sculpta steps for advanced patterning, including high-NA EUV. And we're also working with customers on new Sculpta applications. And we expect this business to grow to close to $200 million in 2024 and ramp to around $0.5 billion in annual revenue in the next few years.

關於你關於 SPIE 的問題，我們將討論的其中一件事是 Sculpta。只是提醒人們，這是一項突破性的圖案成形技術，為 EUV 雙圖案化提供了更簡單、更快且更具成本效益的替代方案。因此，我們正在與所有領先的代工邏輯客戶合作，並擴展用於高級圖案化的 Sculpta 步驟，包括高數值孔徑 EUV。我們也與客戶合作開發新的 Sculpta 應用程式。我們預計該業務將在 2024 年成長至接近 2 億美元，並在未來幾年內增至年收入約 5 億美元。

Also at SPIE, for those of you that will attend, you'll hear about new etch and CVD technology for patterning that will be very large growth drivers for the company and enable us to continue to outperform. And just for reference, in patterning, we've increased our served market from around $1.5 billion 10 years ago to $8 billion now and our share from around 10% to 30%. So when Brice said I was excited, I am absolutely excited. These are some really, really great technologies with very strong customer pull and delivering meaningful growth for the company.

同樣在 SPIE 上，對於將參加的人來說，您將聽到用於圖案化的新蝕刻和 CVD 技術，這將成為公司巨大的成長動力，並使我們能夠繼續表現出色。僅供參考，在模式方面，我們已將我們服務的市場從 10 年前的約 15 億美元增加到現在的 80 億美元，我們的份額從約 10% 增加到 30%。所以當布萊斯說我很興奮時，我絕對很興奮。這些都是一些非常非常偉大的技術，具有非常強大的客戶吸引力，並為公司帶來了有意義的成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的克里斯·卡索（Chris Caso）。

I guess the question is kind of looking at the order rates and more importantly, what your customers are telling you as you're looking into calendar '25. As you know, some others in the industry with long lead times have started to see some of those green shoots coming into '25. I know that we're balancing here between some of your customers burning off capacity and going through technology transitions. What's the thought as we start to look into '25 at these early days?

我想問題在於查看訂單率，更重要的是，當您查看日曆 '25 時，您的客戶告訴您什麼。如您所知，業內其他一些交貨時間較長的公司已經開始看到 25 年的一些萌芽。我知道我們正在平衡一些客戶的產能消耗和技術轉型。當我們這麼早就開始研究 25 世紀時，我們有什麼想法？

Chris, thanks for the question. When we look at the market currently, we're seeing improvements in inventories, and we're seeing improvements in utilization. So it's starting to pick up. That's pretty much across -- that is across the entire market on the utilization side.

克里斯，謝謝你的提問。當我們目前觀察市場時，我們看到庫存有所改善，利用率也有所改善。所以它開始回升。這幾乎涵蓋了整個市場的利用率。

And then what we're hearing from customers is optimism, generally speaking, for 2025. We would echo comments we've heard from others that the semiconductor end market for devices is expected to be growing. And it's an investment cycle on the leading edge. We're expecting the memory markets to continue to improve. So '25, we are optimistic about the direction for '25.

一般來說，我們從客戶那裡聽到的是對 2025 年的樂觀情緒。我們同意從其他人那裡聽到的評論，即設備的半導體終端市場預計將增長。這是一個處於領先地位的投資週期。我們預計記憶體市場將繼續改善。所以'25，我們對'25的方向感到樂觀。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Gary, I had a question for you. You have a broad-based product portfolio. You outperformed WFE last 2 years. I'm kind of curious for some of these new applications, whether it's HBM, gate-all-around or even backside power delivery, are customers looking at a one-stop shop or more going with best-of-breed solutions? And in other words, let's say for gate-all-around, is your strength in epi helping your etch or ALD products?

加里，我有個問題想問你。您擁有廣泛的產品組合。過去 2 年您的表現優於 WFE。我對其中一些新應用感到好奇，無論是 HBM、全閘極還是背面供電，客戶是否正在尋求一站式服務或更多採用同類最佳解決方案？換句話說，對於全閘極來說，您在外延方面的優勢是否有助於您的蝕刻或 ALD 產品？

Yes. Chris, one thing I would say, that for all of these inflections, it's a tremendous advantage for us to have that broad portfolio. Again, when you think about -- one of the examples I've used many times is your processor chip and your smartphone with 15 billion transistors and 60 miles of wiring, which is kind of mind-boggling when you think about how do we do that, how do we create something like that. There are over 1,500 steps in building that type of chip.

是的。克里斯，我要說的一件事是，對於所有這些變化，擁有如此廣泛的產品組合對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢。再次，當你想到——我多次使用的例子之一是你的處理器晶片和你的智慧型手機，擁有150 億個電晶體和60 英里的佈線，當你想到我們如何做時，這有點令人難以置信那，我們如何創造類似的東西。建置此類晶片需要 1,500 多個步驟。

And when you're developing these new technologies like gate-all-around, like backside power or new DRAM technologies or any of these packaging technologies, the ability to combine and co-optimize these steps is an enormous advantage, enormous that 60 miles of wiring, we have one platform that combines 7 technologies under vacuum to enable that -- those 60 miles long, very thin wires to move the data at super high speeds, very low resistance and very low power. So it's completely unique. And that's about 1/3 of our portfolio, are those integrated solutions.

當您開發環柵等新技術時，例如背面電源或新的 DRAM 技術或任何這些封裝技術，組合和共同優化這些步驟的能力是一個巨大的優勢，其巨大程度超過 60 英里佈線方面，我們有一個平台，在真空下結合了7 種技術，以實現這一點——那些60 英里長、非常細的電線能夠以超高速、非常低的電阻和非常低的功率傳輸數據。所以它是完全獨特的。這些整合解決方案約占我們產品組合的 1/3。

We also have clear leadership in eBeam technology. I talked about our cold field emission electron optics. And that enables us to see those structures. When you're building gate-all-around and you want to look at the width of those nanosheets, again, we have unique technology that enables us to learn faster. And then we can co-optimize all of those technologies.

我們在電子束技術方面也擁有明顯的領先地位。我談到了我們的冷場發射電子光學元件。這使我們能夠看到這些結構。當您建造全柵並想要查看這些奈米片的寬度時，我們擁有獨特的技術，使我們能夠更快地學習。然後我們可以共同優化所有這些技術。

So as we're driving our innovation with customers, we're deeper. We're earlier. We can see 4 generations out relative to those technologies. So super, super deep connectivity. That's why also I think EPIC is going to be a game changer in how we innovate, the way we innovate. We talked about the relationship with Leti for innovation and edge computing and ICAPS, all of those things. Then we have our advanced packaging lab in Singapore that is also a full flow lab, where customers are working on innovation and new architectures. So Chris, I think that gives us a tremendous advantage. We can see what's needed earlier. And then the ability to co-optimize all of that gives us a tremendous advantage.

因此，當我們與客戶一起推動創新時，我們會更加深入。我們來得更早。我們可以看到相對於這些技術的第四代。如此超級、超級深度的連結。這就是為什麼我認為 EPIC 將改變我們的創新方式、創新方式。我們討論了與 Leti 在創新、邊緣運算和 ICAPS 等方面的關係。然後，我們在新加坡擁有先進的封裝實驗室，這也是一個全流程實驗室，客戶正在那裡致力於創新和新架構。克里斯，我認為這給我們帶來了巨大的優勢。我們可以更早看到需要什麼。然後共同優化所有這些的能力為我們帶來了巨大的優勢。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

I have a question for Brice. Brice, you talked about China mix normalizing from 45% to 30%. Can you talk about the impact of the mix on the gross margin from the 47.3% you're guiding to for the rest of the year?

我有一個問題想問布萊斯。 Brice，您談到中國的比例從 45% 正常化到 30%。您能否談談這個組合對今年剩餘時間毛利率（47.3%）的影響？

Thanks, Atif. Appreciate the question. So yes, our gross margin reported in Q1 was 47.9%. We think that we've modeled what it would be without the higher China mix. And our view is the underlying gross margin is approximately 46.7% at this point. So as we go through the course of the year, we expect that gross margin to come down from 47.9% to a more normal amount.

謝謝，阿提夫。感謝這個問題。所以，是的，我們第一季的毛利率是 47.9%。我們認為，我們已經模擬了沒有更高的中國組合的情況。我們的觀點是，目前的基本毛利率約為 46.7%。因此，隨著這一年的進展，我們預計毛利率將從 47.9% 下降到更正常的水平。

At the same time, where we are underneath that, the 46.7% will continue to improve slowly, if that makes sense. So if you normalize Q1 immediately, you'd be at 46.7%. We expect that to improve through the course of the year. And then we're not changing our goals. Our goal is 48% to 48.5% for 2025. That's still where we're targeting as we work on pricing improvements and continue to work on our cost road map.

同時，如果這是有道理的，那麼 46.7% 的比例將繼續緩慢提高。因此，如果您立即將第一季標準化，那麼您將達到 46.7%。我們預計這一情況將在今年有所改善。然後我們就不會改變我們的目標。我們的目標是 2025 年實現 48% 至 48.5%。這仍然是我們在努力改善定價並繼續制定成本路線圖時的目標。

Yes. Atif, I would just add that we have made progress pretty much across all customers on pricing improvements. I think we've talked before about cost headwinds that we encountered in the supply chain. We're making improvements there. And as Brice said, we're committed to hit those goals.

是的。 Atif，我想補充一點，我們在所有客戶的定價改進方面都取得了很大進展。我想我們之前已經討論過我們在供應鏈中遇到的成本阻力。我們正在那裡進行改進。正如布萊斯所說，我們致力於實現這些目標。

And our next question comes from the line of Srini Pajjuri from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Srini Pajjuri。

Gary, I have a question on your HBM comment. I think you said HBM accounted for about 5% of industry output. If you can clarify if that's wafer output or if that's bits. But my question is, as we look out to the next few years, I think you're forecasting about 50% growth for this business. So it's a little tricky to understand for us as to how much of DRAM WFE is going to HBM right now. And how do you see that evolving? I mean if the market grows 50%, should we expect, I guess, the equipment spending also to grow 50%? Or do you think it's going to grow faster than that?

Gary，我對您的 HBM 評論有疑問。我想你說HBM佔產業產出的5%左右。如果您能澄清這是晶圓輸出還是位元。但我的問題是，當我們展望未來幾年時，我認為您預測該業務的成長約為 50%。因此，對於我們來說，現在要了解有多少 DRAM WFE 將流向 HBM 有點棘手。您如何看待這種演變？我的意思是，如果市場成長 50%，我猜我們是否應該預期設備支出也會成長 50%？或者您認為它會成長得更快嗎？

Srini, since I've seen a lot of the modeling, I'll just share a couple of those data points. So on the first question, it's wafer starts when we think about the 5%. It's wafer starts. I think it is difficult to estimate the equipment purchases at this point because you probably understand that the DRAM business itself has been underloaded as most of the markets have. So I think what many of the customers are doing is shifting some of their capacity to HBM to get this output.

Srini，因為我已經看過很多建模，所以我只會分享其中的一些數據點。因此，關於第一個問題，當我們考慮 5% 時，它就開始了。這是晶圓開始。我認為目前很難估計設備採購量，因為您可能知道 DRAM 業務本身已經像大多數市場一樣處於負載不足的狀態。因此，我認為許多客戶正在做的是將部分產能轉移到 HBM 以獲得此輸出。

Gary highlighted in his prepared remarks that the die sizes for the HBM are larger than the non-HBM. So it certainly will help drive up utilization, which will eventually increase equipment orders going forward. And we do think the DRAM business, if you look at the past few years, the level of WFE for DRAM, we do think that it's been fairly strong, and it will continue to be strong is our expectation.

Gary 在他準備好的發言中強調，HBM 的晶片尺寸大於非 HBM。因此，這肯定有助於提高利用率，最終將增加未來的設備訂單。我們確實認為 DRAM 業務，如果您看看過去幾年 DRAM 的 WFE 水平，我們確實認為它相當強勁，並且我們的預期將繼續強勁。

And then the last piece, of course, is customers are having to expand the HBM-related steps of their DRAM process. Gary highlighted what that is for us, and that's growing a lot faster than what you see on the general equipment side. So my understanding of the DRAM is about 700 steps in a DRAM process and about 15 additional steps, possibly 20, to do the HBM level of that. So for sure, you'll see customers growing the HBM packaging techniques and capabilities alongside the regular capacity. And then we'll expect to see utilization increase as time goes on.

當然，最後一點是客戶必須擴展其 DRAM 製程中與 HBM 相關的步驟。加里強調了這對我們來說意味著什麼，它的增長速度比你在通用設備方面看到的要快得多。因此，我對 DRAM 的理解是 DRAM 製程中大約有 700 個步驟，以及大約 15 個額外步驟（可能是 20 個）來完成 HBM 等級。因此，可以肯定的是，您將看到客戶在常規產能的同時不斷提高 HBM 封裝技術和能力。然後，隨著時間的推移，我們預期利用率會增加。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a 2-part question. The first one is on the conventional DRAM part of your business. And the second part is on the NAND business. So the bullishness in terms of HBM, we understand. I'm hoping to better understand what your customers are doing, what they're telling you, Gary, in terms of their plans on the conventional DRAM side. Are things still very muted? And are they disciplined from a supply perspective? Or are you seeing a pickup in your conventional DRAM business as well to the extent you have visibility there?

我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。第一個是您業務中的傳統 DRAM 部分。第二部分是NAND業務。因此，我們理解 HBM 的看漲情緒。我希望更了解您的客戶正在做什麼，他們告訴您什麼，Gary，關於他們在傳統 DRAM 方面的計劃。事情仍然很平靜嗎？從供應角度來看，他們是否遵守紀律？或者您看到傳統 DRAM 業務也有所回升，達到了您在該領域的知名度？

And then I guess a similar question on the NAND side. It's been a soft market for everyone. I guess there's hope that at least node transitions or layer count increases will resume this year. Are you starting to see early signs of a pickup? Or are things pretty soft there?

然後我猜 NAND 方面也有類似的問題。對每個人來說，這都是一個疲軟的市場。我想今年至少有希望恢復節點轉換或層數增加。您是否開始看到回升的早期跡象？還是那裡的東西很軟？

Yes. Toshiya, it's Brice. I'll just make a couple of comments, and maybe Gary will add to that. So on the DRAM side -- and this is true for DRAM and NAND, but I'll start with DRAM. We do see utilization improving, and we also see improvements in prices and we also see improvements in inventory positions. So we do think that's consistent with the rising optimism on the DRAM side. The utilizations have been low enough that there's a ways to go before they have to start thinking about adding capacity. So our view on the market is it's mostly from a WFE perspective, the nodal upgrades and the HBM that we talked about.

是的。俊哉，我是布萊斯。我只會發表一些評論，也許加里會補充。因此，在 DRAM 方面，對於 DRAM 和 NAND 來說都是如此，但我將從 DRAM 開始。我們確實看到利用率提高，價格也有所改善，庫存狀況也有所改善。因此，我們確實認為這與 DRAM 方面日益增長的樂觀情緒是一致的。由於利用率已經很低，因此在他們必須開始考慮增加容量之前還有很長的路要走。所以我們對市場的看法主要是從 WFE 的角度來看，也就是我們談到的節點升級和 HBM。

And it would be similar for NAND. We're seeing improvements in inventory, seeing improvements in pricing. Utilization is starting to pick up. And our perspective would be the same as technology advances will be what drives the spending. And we do have signals that -- as we suggested that the spending will pick up.

對 NAND 來說也是類似的。我們看到庫存有所改善，定價也有所改善。利用率開始回升。我們的觀點是一樣的，技術進步將推動支出。我們確實有訊號表明——正如我們所建議的那樣，支出將會增加。

Yes. Toshiya, relative to Applied in DRAM, as I talked about earlier, we've gained more than 10 points of overall DRAM WFE share over the last 10 years. And then if you look at the technologies for DRAM going forward, periphery moving to higher speed IO, enabled by our leadership logic products, capacitor scaling, we're achieving patterning share gains. And I've talked about very strong position in advanced packaging, including high-bandwidth memory. We're really well positioned there to continue our outperformance in DRAM. And as Brice said or I said earlier also, we think that business is going to remain very healthy for us.

是的。 Toshiya，相對於 DRAM 領域的 Applied，正如我之前談到的，在過去 10 年裡，我們在 DRAM WFE 整體份額中獲得了超過 10 個百分點。然後，如果你看看未來 DRAM 的技術，週邊設備正在轉向更高速的 IO，在我們領先的邏輯產品、電容器縮放的支援下，我們正在實現模式化的份額成長。我已經談到了在先進封裝領域的非常強大的地位，包括高頻寬記憶體。我們確實處於有利位置，可以繼續在 DRAM 領域的卓越表現。正如布萊斯所說或我之前所說，我們認為我們的業務將保持非常健康的狀態。

NAND for Applied, we see the revenue up a fair percentage in '24 versus '23. But the total amount is still far below 2022. So that's a little bit more color.

對於應用材料公司的 NAND，我們看到 24 年的收入比 23 年增長了相當大的百分比。但總量仍遠低於 2022 年。所以顏色有點多。

And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

One of your peers alluded to this on their last earnings call and talked about a pushout on advanced foundry logic programs due to potentially persistent delays in chip stack funding. I mean I think the industry thought that after Congress and the President signed off on the CHIPS bill, I think it was like 18 months ago that grant funding would be appropriated at least in 2023. But here we are in February '24 and still no grant disbursements. Obviously, all fab programs will launch at some point, right, but maybe some near-term movements on timing due to the absence of this grant funding. Is that what's driving some of the leading-edge foundry logic program delays that you guys talked about in your opening remarks?

你的一位同行在上次財報電話會議上提到了這一點，並談到由於晶片堆疊融資可能持續延遲而推遲先進代工邏輯項目。我的意思是，我認為業界認為在國會和總統簽署 CHIPS 法案之後，我認為就像 18 個月前一樣，撥款資金至少會在 2023 年撥付。但現在已經是 2024 年 2 月，但仍然沒有撥款。顯然，所有晶圓廠計劃都會在某個時候啟動，對吧，但由於缺乏這筆撥款，可能會在時間上出現一些近期變動。這就是你們在開場白中談到的一些前沿代工邏輯程序延遲的原因嗎？

Okay. Harlan, I'll make a comment there. I do think those schedule changes that have been in the news, we're up-to-date on those. So our outlook is consistent with any of those discussions and schedule changes that you're talking about.

好的。哈倫，我會在那裡發表評論。我確實認為新聞中提到的那些日程變更，我們都是最新的。因此，我們的前景與您所談論的任何討論和時間表變化都是一致的。

On the CHIPS Act, we've recently seen news reports about the government beginning to accelerate that process. We're in the process ourselves of preparing our application on the R&D side and expecting that to open soon. So I think the answer to your question is, yes, it is affecting schedules, but we don't expect it will change the ultimate destination of those projects.

關於 CHIPS 法案，我們最近看到有關政府開始加速這一進程的新聞報導。我們正在準備研發方面的申請，並預計很快就會開放。所以我認為你的問題的答案是，是的，它正在影響時間表，但我們預計它不會改變這些項目的最終目的地。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I was wondering if you could help us and quantify how much your ICAPS business grew in calendar '23. And then as we think about the foundry logic business for 2024, do you think the recovery in leading edge can offset the decline in ICAPS?

我想知道您是否可以幫助我們量化您的 ICAPS 業務在 23 日曆年增長了多少。然後，當我們思考2024年的代工邏輯業務時，您認為領先優勢的復甦能否抵銷ICAPS的下滑？

Okay. Joe, thanks. So I think what we've highlighted publicly on ICAPS is that grew approximately 40% in '22, and it grew faster than that in '23. And so we wouldn't change that and be more specific. But to your point, it's been the strongest market for us. It's now the largest market for Applied. Gary highlighted that there's innovations across that market. It's very important to us from an investment perspective. And so you'll see us continue to focus on serving that market and the growth.

好的。喬，謝謝。所以我認為我們在 ICAPS 上公開強調的是 22 年成長了約 40%，而且比 23 年成長得更快。所以我們不會改變這一點並變得更加具體。但就您而言，這對我們來說是最強勁的市場。它現在是應用材料公司最大的市場。加里強調說，整個市場都有創新。從投資角度來看，這對我們非常重要。因此，您會看到我們繼續專注於服務該市場和成長。

And then the second part was the linearity across the quarters. We're not giving guidance across the quarters. But since we did highlight that we expect some digestion in ICAPS and we highlighted we expect leading edge to accelerate, we'll leave it to you to kind of think about what -- which is the stronger force and how the next few quarters go forward. But that is the right shape of those 2 end markets.

第二部分是各季度的線性度。我們不會提供跨季度的指導。但由於我們確實強調我們預計 ICAPS 會得到一些消化，我們強調我們預計領先優勢會加速，因此我們將讓您思考什麼是更強大的力量以及未來幾季如何發展。但這是這兩個終端市場的正確形態。

Yes, Joe, just let me add. I think our perspective hasn't changed at all relative to how we see the market. So we still see semiconductors at $1 trillion by 2030. And if you look at -- there's some powerful drivers in the digital transformation of every industry. AI, certainly, there's a lot of focus there. And AI server has 8x more foundry logic content and 8x more DRAM compute memory content.

是的，喬，讓我補充一下。我認為相對於我們對市場的看法，我們的觀點根本沒有改變。因此，到 2030 年，我們仍然預期半導體市場價值將達到 1 兆美元。如果你仔細觀察，每個產業的數位轉型都有一些強大的驅動力。當然，人工智慧是人們關注的焦點。 AI 伺服器的代工廠邏輯內容增加了 8 倍，DRAM 運算記憶體內容增加了 8 倍。

So as Brice said earlier, and I think as you've heard from others, I think there's a pretty positive perspective on '25. And I think longer term, we have a very positive perspective relative to semiconductor growth, equipment growing as faster or faster and Applied outgrowing the equipment market, continuing to outgrow as we have for the last 5 years.

正如布萊斯早些時候所說，我認為正如你從其他人那裡聽到的那樣，我認為人們對 25 有著非常積極的看法。我認為從長遠來看，我們對半導體成長持非常積極的看法，設備成長越來越快，應用材料公司的成長超過了設備市場，就像過去 5 年一樣，繼續超過設備市場的成長。

So I think quarter-to-quarter or half-to-half, frankly, we don't focus as much on that as we do this secular growth that we see in this industry and the great opportunities Applied has, as I've talked about, relative to the major inflections. So anyway, that's the way we think about it.

因此，我認為，坦白說，我們並沒有像我們在這個行業中看到的長期成長以及應用材料公司所擁有的巨大機會那樣關注這一點，正如我所說的那樣關於，相對於主要的變化。所以無論如何，這就是我們的想法。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had a clarification and a question. So the clarification, Brice. Is the 2023 WFE baseline, would you agree, with something like $86 billion to $87 billion? So if you can clarify what your baseline is when you say that you gain share?

我有一個澄清和一個問題。所以澄清一下，布萊斯。您同意 2023 年 WFE 的基線是 860 億至 870 億美元嗎？那麼，當你說你獲得份額時，你能澄清一下你的基線是什麼嗎？

And then my question is on China WFE. So if I use your numbers, it implies WFE from China is roughly $30 billion in 2023, maybe a little bit less. I know the customers are not stockpiling tools per se, but we know that SMIC and some of the other public companies, they have revenue to support what they spend. But that seems like only about half of that amount. So I guess the question is, would you disagree with the idea that maybe half of what's coming from China is companies just kind of getting off the ground and trying to displace what's being imported from the U.S. or Europe?

然後我的問題是關於中國WFE。因此，如果我使用你的數字，這意味著 2023 年來自中國的 WFE 約為 300 億美元，可能會少一點。我知道客戶本身並沒有囤積工具，但我們知道中芯國際和其他一些上市公司，他們有收入來支持他們的支出。但這似乎只是這個數字的一半左右。所以我想問題是，你是否不同意這樣一種觀點，即來自中國的產品中有一半是剛起步並試圖取代從美國或歐洲進口的產品的公司？

And I guess, Gary, the real crux of the question is that the China stuff is not really a free lunch. It's sort of duplicative with spending happening elsewhere. So how do you handicap that when you plan your business going forward?

加里，我想問題的真正關鍵在於中國的東西並不是真正的免費午餐。這與其他地方的支出有點重複。那麼，當您規劃未來的業務時，您如何限制這一點？

Okay, Tim. Thank you. So on the 2023 WFE, we've been careful not to engage in the discussion about that. We just shared what our view of Applied's performance in our view of that market. And for us, 2023 was a strong year. We talked about ICAPS strength. We talked about DRAM strength, packaging strength, et cetera. And so we'll just have to wait and see what the third parties say about the size of the market. For us, we saw a strong market.

好的，提姆。謝謝。因此，在 2023 年 WFE 上，我們一直小心翼翼地不參與相關討論。我們剛剛分享了我們對應用材料公司在該市場的看法中的表現的看法。對我們來說，2023 年是豐收的一年。我們討論了 ICAPS 的實力。我們討論了 DRAM 強度、封裝強度等等。因此，我們只能等待，看看第三方對市場規模的看法。對我們來說，我們看到了一個強勁的市場。

On the China WFE, we agree. We don't see stockpiling. There are a number of new customers. So I don't know if it's exactly the partition that you described in terms of leading and public companies versus not. But we do think there are a large number of projects that are under investment, where we see over the next 4 years, added wafer start capacity planned wafer start capacity, that market will be a strong market for us across the planning horizon.

關於中國WFE，我們同意。我們沒有看到庫存。有很多新客戶。所以我不知道這是否正是您所描述的領先公司和上市公司的劃分。但我們確實認為有大量項目正在投資，我們看到未來 4 年增加的晶圓開工產能和計劃的晶圓開工產能，在整個規劃期內，該市場將成為我們的強勁市場。

And so I think it is a mix. You've got real demand there. When we look at the macro, we compare the amount of capacity put in place to local China consumption, and we think they're still behind the amount of local China consumption. So we think the investments are rational. And actually, the utilizations look okay. They're lower than rest of the world generally speaking, but they're improving, and we expect yields to be improving also over time.

所以我認為這是一個混合體。那裡有真正的需求。當我們看宏觀時，我們將已到位的產能數量與中國當地的消費量進行比較，我們認為它們仍然落後於中國當地的消費量。所以我們認為投資是理性的。事實上，利用率看起來還不錯。一般來說，它們低於世界其他地區，但它們正在改善，我們預計收益率也會隨著時間的推移而改善。

And then I know, Gary -- you're asking Gary, about the free lunch. We think you're right from the perspective of no capacity -- we're planning for all of the tools that we sell, whether it's to China or whether it's to a government incentivized project. None of these things, we think, increase the amount of equipment installed sort of abnormally such that it's not going to be used and not going to serve an end market. So we don't believe that China demand is an end line free launch. We don't believe the government incentives are a free lunch from that perspective. It's just affecting a location of needed equipment.

然後我知道，加里——你在問加里關於免費午餐的事。我們認為從無能力的角度來看你是對的——我們正在規劃我們銷售的所有工具，無論是銷往中國還是政府激勵項目。我們認為，這些事情都不會異常增加安裝的設備數量，導致其無法使用或無法服務終端市場。因此，我們不認為中國的需求是免費推出的。從這個角度來看，我們不認為政府的獎勵措施是免費的午餐。它只是影響所需設備的位置。

And our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Yes, I wonder if you could give us some clarity on the $500 million of HBM-related revenue that you're forecasting. Actually, that's a relatively small portion of your overall DRAM run rate at least. And I guess I would have thought it would be even bigger. Can you talk about that? And then there's more than just HBM when it comes to advanced packaging for AI DRAM. People are doing stacks for other types of memory. Are you -- is that HBM kind of encompassing all of the advanced packaging? Or is there other opportunity above and beyond that?

是的，我想知道您能否向我們解釋一下您所預測的 5 億美元的 HBM 相關收入。實際上，這至少佔整體 DRAM 運作率的一小部分。我想我會認為它會更大。你能談談嗎？當談到 AI DRAM 的先進封裝時，不僅僅是 HBM。人們正在為其他類型的記憶體做堆疊。您認為 HBM 是否涵蓋了所有先進封裝？或者除此之外還有其他機會嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Joe. So on the DRAM, I think going back to that Q4, the first quarter, we saw elevated DRAM from the China demand. That was the approximation we used for the impact of that. So you're right. It doesn't -- it's not going to exactly describe every single quarter, but I think that was a good estimate of the incremental that we're seeing. So we'll end up with 3 straight quarters of incremental DRAM shipping to customers in China for those allowed technologies. And Gary, on the...

好的。謝謝，喬。因此，在 DRAM 方面，我認為回到第四季度，即第一季度，我們看到中國需求增加了 DRAM。這是我們用來衡量其影響的近似值。所以你是對的。它不會——它不會準確地描述每個季度，但我認為這是對我們所看到的增量的一個很好的估計。因此，對於這些允許的技術，我們最終將連續三個季度向中國客戶增加 DRAM 出貨量。還有加里，關於...

Joe, on HBM, again, the HBM packaging is what we talked about, increasing to almost $0.5 billion in '24. And our overall packaging -- overall advanced packaging is around $1.5 billion. So that's kind of how to think about it. About $0.5 billion in HBM packaging and the total advanced packaging for us is around $1.5 billion.

Joe，關於 HBM，我們再次討論的是 HBM 包裝，在 24 年增加到近 5 億美元。我們的整體封裝－整體先進封裝的成本約為 15 億美元。這就是思考的方式。 HBM 封裝的價值約為 5 億美元，我們的先進封裝總額約為 15 億美元。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Just curious in route to Applied doing better than the industry over the full year. In terms of the handshake that occurs, maybe around midyear but between some digestion in ICAPS and some pickup in advanced foundry logic. But the current timing around this suggest maybe a bigger dip in revenue in the July quarter?

只是好奇應用材料公司全年表現優於同業。就發生的握手而言，可能在年中左右，但在 ICAPS 的一些消化和先進代工邏輯的一些回升之間。但目前的時間表表明，七月季度的收入可能會出現更大的下降？

Brian, it's Brice. So yes, we're not going to guide future quarters beyond the outlook quarter. So we've given you the shape that we think the end markets will take. And to your point, it's hard to tell which force will be stronger, whether leading -- growing leading edge or a little digestion on the ICAPS side. So we're not going to call that until we get to those quarters.

布萊恩，我是布萊斯。所以，是的，我們不會指導展望季度之外的未來季度。因此，我們已經向您提供了我們認為終端市場將採取的形式。就你的觀點而言，很難判斷哪種力量會更強，是領先——不斷增長的領先優勢，還是 ICAPS 方面的一點消化。因此，在我們到達這些宿舍之前，我們不會這麼稱呼它。

And our next question comes from the line of Charles Shi from Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Charles Shi。

I have a long-term question for leading-edge foundry logic. So you guys talked a lot about the material engineering potentially driving outperformance. If I look at the back -- in the last 10 years -- I mean, I think of the back half of the last decade, I mean, between '15 and 2019, because the manufacturers are kind of slow to jump on the EUV, there was a lot more adoption of multi-patterning that actually led to like outperformance of the dep and etch equipment suppliers like Applied Materials. But the last 5 years, because of the EUV adoption, seems to be that trend has reversed a little bit.

我對前沿的代工邏輯有一個長期的問題。你們談論了很多關於材料工程可能推動卓越表現的話題。如果我回顧過去 10 年的情況，我的意思是，我想到了過去 10 年的後半段，我的意思是，從 15 年到 2019 年，因為製造商在 EUV 上的發展有點緩慢，更多地採用多重圖案化，這實際上導致了應用材料公司等沉積和蝕刻設備供應商的出色表現。但最近 5 年，由於 EUV 的採用，這種趨勢似乎有所逆轉。

But looking out for the next 5 years, I know there are recent discussions about maybe high-NA EUV may not actually get adopted before 2030. Does that -- does Applied think that may lead to more of the multi-patterning EUV again and that could actually drive up the material engineering intensity again? And any thoughts would be helpful.

但展望未來 5 年，我知道最近有一些討論，認為高數值孔徑 EUV 在 2030 年之前可能不會真正得到採用。應用材料公司是否認為這可能會再次導致更多的多重圖案 EUV 的出現？真的可以再次提高材料工程強度嗎？任何想法都會有幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question. So one thing I would point to, one of our largest customers, they talked about what's driving their road map going forward. They talked about something called design technology co-optimization. So what they said basically was that much of the area scaling they were driving going forward is coming from new structures and new materials.

是的。謝謝你的提問。所以我要指出的一件事是，我們最大的客戶之一，他們談到了推動他們的路線圖前進的因素。他們討論了一種稱為設計技術協同優化的問題。所以他們所說的基本上是，他們正在推動的大部分面積擴展都來自新結構和新材料。

So an example is backside power. You can get 30% area savings through that type of a structure with no change in feature size. So I think what -- certainly, what we see -- and we're working with customers for technology nodes out past the end of the decade. We see the relative contribution of materials innovations spending going higher, the percentage of that going higher. Gate-all-around, backside power, there's CFET technology. There's many different innovations, packaging technologies. All of those areas, we have over 50% share opportunity in those inflections that are very accretive. And again, we do see a relative contribution from -- of spending those innovations to go higher over time.

一個例子是背面電源。透過這種類型的結構，您可以節省 30% 的面積，而無需改變特徵尺寸。所以我認為——當然，我們所看到的——我們正在與客戶合作開發本世紀末的技術節點。我們看到材料創新支出的相對貢獻越來越高，其百分比也越來越高。環柵、背面供電、CFET 技術。有許多不同的創新、封裝技術。在所有這些領域，我們在那些非常增值的變化中擁有超過 50% 的份額機會。而且，我們確實看到了隨著時間的推移，花費這些創新來走得更高的相對貢獻。

I'll give you one more data point. So gate-all-around. Gate-all-around is a new innovation in the transistor to process the data faster. We see gate-all-around ramping to more than $1.5 billion for Applied revenue in '24 and almost double that amount in calendar '25. So again, those are -- they're very powerful new architecture inflections, where Applied is extremely well positioned.

我再給你一個數據點。所以四通八達。環柵是晶體管的一項新創新，可以更快地處理資料。我們預計應用材料公司 24 年的總收入將增至 15 億美元以上，而 25 年幾乎翻倍。再說一遍，它們是非常強大的新架構變形，應用材料公司在這方面處於非常有利的位置。

Okay. Thanks, Charles. And operator, we're getting close to the end of the session. So if we have time for one more quick question, please.

好的。謝謝，查爾斯。接線員，我們的會議即將結束。如果我們還有時間再問一個簡短的問題，請。

And our final question for today comes from the line of Thomas O'Malley from Barclays.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

I had another question on kind of the handoff in the first half, the second half. Clearly, you're kind of talking about the ICAPS business getting a little softer in the back half, but leading edge is really picking up slightly offsetting. In terms of where you're seeing the strength in the leading edge, is that greenfield new fab build-outs? Or is that existing capacity additions? Any kind of help on where that strength is coming from in the second half would be helpful.

我還有一個關於上半場和下半場交接的問題。顯然，您所說的是 ICAPS 業務在後半段變得有些疲軟，但領先優勢確實有所回升，略有抵消。就您在哪裡看到的領先優勢而言，這是新建的新建晶圓廠嗎？還是現有容量的增加？任何關於下半場力量來自何處的幫助都會有所幫助。

Sure, Tom. It's Brice. Typically, it's greenfield. So I think that when companies start the first part of a process, you're typically putting in greenfield, and you'll shift some of your reused equipment later if you're able to do that. So that would be my expectation.

當然，湯姆。是布萊斯。通常，它是未開發的土地。因此，我認為，當公司開始流程的第一部分時，您通常會投入綠地，如果您能夠做到這一點，您稍後會轉移一些重複使用的設備。這就是我的期望。

Okay. Thanks, Tom, and appreciate that question. Brice, how would you like to give us your closing thoughts for today?

好的。謝謝，湯姆，並感謝這個問題。 Brice，您想向我們介紹您今天的結束語嗎？

Sure, Mike. What stands out to me from a summary perspective is that we've anticipated the major market trends, and we work closely with our customers to invest in the most important technology inflections. I think we'll be a major beneficiary, as AI and IoT spending grows over the next several years. Our #1 positions in gate-all-around, backside power and advanced packaging are higher than our corporate average, which gives me confidence that we'll continue to gain share.

當然，麥克。從總結的角度來看，對我來說最突出的是，我們預測了主要的市場趨勢，並且我們與客戶密切合作，投資於最重要的技術變化。我認為隨著人工智慧和物聯網支出在未來幾年不斷增長，我們將成為主要受益者。我們在全柵極、背面功率和先進封裝方面的第一名位置高於我們公司的平均水平，這讓我相信我們將繼續獲得份額。

Beyond our strong portfolio, we're also making operational progress, which makes me confident we can meet strong demand and make progress in gross margins. Finally, our services growth is accelerating to double digits and generating more than enough profit to fund our growing dividend. Also, I hope to see many of you at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 4.

除了我們強大的產品組合之外，我們還在營運方面取得進展，這讓我相信我們能夠滿足強勁的需求並在毛利率方面取得進展。最後，我們的服務成長正加速至兩位數，並產生足夠的利潤來為我們不斷增長的股息提供資金。另外，我希望在 3 月 4 日舉行的摩根士丹利會議上見到你們中的許多人。

Mike, thank you. Let's close the call.

麥克，謝謝你。讓我們結束通話。

Okay. Thanks, Brice. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of today's call is going to be available on the IR page of our website by 5:00 Pacific Time, and we'd really like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

好的。謝謝，布萊斯。我們要感謝大家今天加入我們。今天電話會議的重播將於太平洋時間 5:00 之前在我們網站的 IR 頁面上提供，我們衷心感謝您對應用材料公司的持續關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。