應用材料公司在第三財季公佈了強勁的業績,重點關注物聯網和人工智能對半導體增長和創新的影響。他們概述了 PPACt 策略並討論了半導體供應鏈的區域化。
應用材料公司強調了他們在 ICAPS、代工邏輯、DRAM 和異構集成方面的戰略和投資。他們強調了對可持續性和協作的關注。
該公司預計 2023 年和 2024 年的業績將顯著優於材料工程、互連、ICAPS 份額增長、DRAM、封裝和服務領域。他們討論了他們的高帶寬內存封裝和混合鍵合技術以及他們對 ICAPS 市場的關注。應用材料公司還提到了其 PDC 部門的發展以及與工藝設備的協同作用。
他們有信心一旦利用率恢復正常,服務將實現兩位數的低增長。該公司相信人工智能和物聯網將推動鑄造行業未來的資本支出。他們對當前的支出水平感到滿意,並期望獲得市場份額和顯著增長。
應用材料公司預計毛利率將取得進步,並強調其強大的執行力和對技術領先地位和增長的投資。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
歡迎參加應用程式材料收益電話會議。 (操作員指令)
I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我想將會議交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。先生,請繼續。
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.
大家下午好,感謝您參加應用材料公司 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。和我一起參加的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Gary Dickerson;以及我們的財務長布萊斯希爾(Brice Hill)。
Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-Q filing with the SEC.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的資訊包含在應用材料公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-Q 表中。
Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com.
今天的電話會議還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。與 GAAP 指標的對帳可在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益資料中找到,這些資料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。
And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.
介紹完畢後,我想將電話轉給加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson)。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Thank you, Mike. In our third fiscal quarter, Applied Materials delivered results at the high end of our guidance range. Across the business, our teams are executing well. We are making incremental improvements in our operations as we productively scale the company, and we're driving our technology road map, introducing enabling new products and solutions for our customers.
謝謝你,麥克。在第三財季,應用材料的業績達到了我們預期範圍的高點。在整個業務範圍內,我們的團隊表現良好。隨著我們有效地擴大公司規模,我們正在逐步改進運營,並推動我們的技術路線圖,為我們的客戶推出新的產品和解決方案。
In my prepared remarks today, I will start with our big picture view of the IoT AI era and how this is driving growth and innovation across the industry. I'll then summarize Applied's strategy and how this is enabling us to outgrow the industry this year, while also positioning us for sustained outperformance over the longer term. And finally, I'll cover our near-term performance and outlook, including some recent business highlights.
在今天的準備演講中,我將首先介紹我們對物聯網人工智慧時代的巨集觀看法,以及它如何推動整個產業的成長和創新。然後,我將總結應用材料公司的策略,以及該策略如何使我們在今年超越行業,同時也為我們在長期內持續保持優異表現做好準備。最後,我將介紹我們的近期業績和展望,包括一些近期的業務亮點。
In the summer of 2018, at our AI Design Forum, Applied laid out a thesis explaining how we expected IoT and AI to drive a new wave of semiconductor growth and innovation. Five years later, IoT and AI inflections are having a profound impact across many sectors of the economy as well as within the semiconductor industry. We view IoT and AI computing as 2 sides of the same coin.
2018 年夏天,在我們的人工智慧設計論壇上,應用材料公司發表了一篇論文,解釋了我們如何預期物聯網和人工智慧將推動新一波半導體成長和創新浪潮。五年後,物聯網和人工智慧的變化對經濟的許多領域以及半導體產業產生了深遠的影響。我們認為物聯網和人工智慧運算是同一枚硬幣的兩面。
At the edge, consumer devices, vehicles, buildings, factories, and infrastructure are all getting smarter and more capable. Our customers that serve these IoT communications, auto, power and sensors markets or ICAPS are growing and represent the largest portion of wafer fab equipment sales in 2023. Increasingly intelligent edge devices are fueling an explosion of data generation that can then be transmitted and combined to create very large data sets for training AI models.
在邊緣,消費性設備、車輛、建築物、工廠和基礎設施都變得更加智慧和功能更強大。我們服務於這些物聯網通訊、汽車、電力和感測器市場或 ICAPS 的客戶數量正在增長,並在 2023 年佔據晶圓廠設備銷售額的最大份額。
High-performance AI computing is primarily enabled by hardware innovations. As a result, AI is becoming the key driver of the leading-edge logic and DRAM road maps as well as heterogeneous integration which creates exciting new innovation opportunities for device designers.
高效能人工智慧運算主要由硬體創新實現。因此,人工智慧正在成為前沿邏輯和 DRAM 路線圖以及異質整合的關鍵驅動因素,這為設備設計師創造了令人興奮的新創新機會。
In summary, the first part of our thesis is that the combination of IoT and AI drives demand for significantly more chips as well as next-generation silicon technologies.
總而言之,我們論文的第一部分是物聯網和人工智慧的結合推動了對更多晶片以及下一代矽技術的需求。
The second part of our thesis relates to how those chips and new technology innovations will be supplied. In terms of technology, as the benefits of traditional Moore's Law 2D scaling slowed down, the industry is moving to a new playbook to drive improvements in power, performance, area cost and time to market. The PPACt playbook has 5 elements: new system and device architectures, new 3D structures, new materials, new ways to shrink, and heterogeneous integration.
我們的論文的第二部分涉及如何供應這些晶片和新技術創新。在技術方面,隨著傳統摩爾定律二維縮放的優勢逐漸減弱,業界正在轉向新的模式,以推動功率、性能、面積成本和上市時間的改善。 PPACt 劇本有 5 個要素:新的系統和裝置架構、新的 3D 結構、新材料、新的縮小方法和異質整合。
The transition to the new playbook is positive for Applied in 2 key ways. First, as the road map evolves it is increasingly enabled by advances in materials engineering where Applied has differentiated capabilities. Key examples of this include the move to gate-all-around transistors and backside power distribution in advanced logic. Second, the PPACt playbook is inherently more complex, and we can help customers manage this complexity by providing more comprehensive solutions which include integrated products and advanced services to accelerate R&D, technology transfer ramp as well as yield and cost and volume production.
向新劇本的過渡對 Applied 有兩個關鍵的正面影響。首先,隨著路線圖的演變,材料工程領域的進步日益推動其發展,而應用材料公司在材料工程領域具有差異化能力。主要例子包括先進邏輯中轉向環柵電晶體和背面電源分配。其次,PPACt 劇本本質上更加複雜,我們可以透過提供更全面的解決方案來幫助客戶管理這種複雜性,這些解決方案包括整合產品和先進的服務,以加速研發、技術轉移以及產量和成本以及大量生產。
In parallel to the new PPACt playbook being implemented, we're also seeing regionalization of semiconductor supply chains as countries seek to build resilient local capacity to support industry verticals that are essential to their economies. As a result, hundreds of billions of dollars of government incentives will be deployed globally over the next 5 years.
在實施新的 PPACt 方案的同時,我們也看到半導體供應鏈的區域化,因為各國都在尋求建立有彈性的本地能力來支持對其經濟至關重要的垂直產業。因此,未來5年全球將部署數千億美元的政府獎勵措施。
At Applied, we recognized these trends early and made important changes to our strategy, organization and investment profile. In the past 5 years, we created a dedicated organization to focus on the ICAPS market and released more than 20 new products for ICAPS applications. We also formed a team focused on co-optimized and integrated products to accelerate solutions for leading-edge logic and memory. This has resulted in much deeper strategic relationships with our customers, new, highly-differentiated products and increasing market share.
在應用材料公司,我們很早就意識到了這些趨勢,並對我們的策略、組織和投資組合做出了重大改變。在過去的 5 年裡,我們成立了一個專門的組織專注於 ICAPS 市場,並為 ICAPS 應用程式發布了 20 多種新產品。我們還組建了一支專注於共同優化和整合產品的團隊,以加速尖端邏輯和記憶體的解決方案。這使我們與客戶建立了更深厚的策略關係,推出了新的高度差異化的產品並提高了市場份額。
We developed a very strong portfolio of products to enable multiple generations of DRAM technology that is fueling share gains in this market segment and contributing to our outperformance. And we established a clear leadership position in heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging. In fact, we just announced 5 new heterogeneous integration products at SEMICON West in July.
我們開發了非常強大的產品組合,以支援多代 DRAM 技術,從而推動該細分市場的份額成長並有助於我們取得優異的業績。並且在異質整合和先進封裝領域確立了明顯的領導地位。事實上,我們剛剛在7月的SEMICON West上發布了5款新的異質整合產品。
This strategy and increased focus on IoT and AI-driven inflections has enabled us to deliver more value to customers and strong performance in 2023 even during a period of very low investment by memory makers. It also positions us for ongoing outperformance in 2024 and beyond.
這項策略以及對物聯網和人工智慧驅動變化的更多關注使我們能夠在 2023 年為客戶提供更多價值,即使在記憶體製造商投資非常低的時期也能取得強勁的業績。這也使我們在 2024 年及以後繼續保持優異表現。
Let me highlight a few key areas. In DRAM, our revenues in the first half of 2023 were higher than our 2 closest process equipment peers combined. Our strength in DRAM is underpinned by multiple factors. We have gained significant share in DRAM patterning both for EUV-based and multi-patterning. We have developed unique co-optimized hardmask solutions, which are a key enabler for capacitor scaling. We have successfully ported key technologies developed for logic to DRAM, where they are used in the peripheral circuitry to significantly increase IO speed. And we are the largest supplier of advanced packaging solutions with leadership positions in microbump and through silicon via that enable multiple generations of high-bandwidth memory.
讓我強調幾個關鍵領域。在 DRAM 領域,我們 2023 年上半年的收入高於我們最接近的兩家製程設備同行的總收入。我們在 DRAM 領域的優勢得到多種因素的支持。我們在基於 EUV 和多重圖案化的 DRAM 圖案化領域已佔據重要份額。我們開發了獨特的共同優化硬掩模解決方案,這是實現電容器微縮的關鍵因素。我們已成功將為邏輯開發的關鍵技術移植到 DRAM,並在外圍電路中使用它們以顯著提高 IO 速度。我們是最大的先進封裝解決方案供應商,在微凸塊和矽通孔領域佔據領導地位,可實現多代高頻寬記憶體。
As DRAM investments increase, we feel very positive about our opportunities, especially in high-performance DRAM for the data center. High-bandwidth memory is less than 5% of DRAM capacity today, but it is expected to grow at a 30% compound annual growth rate over the coming years. If you look at an HBM2 die compared to DDR5, it's about 25% larger because of additional IO routing in the area needed for the TSVs. On top of this, the extra processing steps needed for die stacking further increase our total available market by approximately 5%.
隨著 DRAM 投資的增加,我們對我們的機會感到非常樂觀,特別是在資料中心的高效能 DRAM 方面。目前高頻寬記憶體佔 DRAM 容量的不到 5%,但預計未來幾年將以 30% 的複合年增長率成長。如果將 HBM2 晶片與 DDR5 進行比較,會發現 HBM2 晶片大約約 25%,因為 TSV 所需區域需要額外的 IO 路由。除此之外,晶片堆疊所需的額外處理步驟進一步使我們的總可用市場增加約 5%。
Another key growth driver is our ICAPS business. We see ICAPS demand as sustainable as these customers are delivering enabling technology for large global inflections that will play out over the next decade. These include industrial automation, electric vehicles and vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems, solar and wind energy, where each megawatt generated requires $3,000 to $4,000 of power chips and the smart grid, which could drive $50 billion of annual silicon demand by the end of the decade.
另一個關鍵的成長動力是我們的 ICAPS 業務。我們認為 ICAPS 的需求是可持續的,因為這些客戶正在為未來十年將發生的全球性重大變化提供支援技術。這些應用包括工業自動化、電動車和配備高級駕駛輔助系統的汽車、太陽能和風能,其中每兆瓦的發電量需要 3,000 至 4,000 美元的電源晶片和智慧電網,到本世紀末可能推動每年 500 億美元的矽需求。
ICAPS investments are also expected to be underpinned by government support around the world and we expect these markets to be a significant beneficiary of regional incentives. The increasing complexity needed to enable the PPACt playbook, combined with the broadening of the industry's geographic footprint are both key growth drivers for our service business.
預計 ICAPS 投資也將得到世界各地政府的支持,我們預計這些市場將成為區域激勵措施的重要受益者。實現 PPACt 劇本所需的複雜性日益增加,加上產業地理覆蓋範圍的擴大,都是我們服務業務的主要成長動力。
AGS delivered record revenue this quarter and is on track to grow in 2023, even with this year's low fab utilization rates and after absorbing the impact of new U.S. trade rules. This year, more than 60% of our service revenue is generated from subscriptions in the form of long-term agreements. These agreements are growing at a faster rate than the installed base and have a high renewal rate of more than 90%.
AGS 本季實現了創紀錄的收入,即使今年的晶圓廠利用率較低,並且受到了美國新貿易規則的影響,該公司仍有望在 2023 年實現成長。今年我們60%以上的服務收入都是來自長期協議形式的訂閱。這些協定的成長速度快於安裝基數的成長速度,且續約率高達 90% 以上。
With strong customer pull for our services and a robust pipeline of new capabilities, we believe we're on-track to achieve low double-digit AGS growth in the coming years. While I'm excited about the opportunities ahead, it's important to recognize that to deliver this future the industry must also overcome significant challenges relating to complexity, cost and our combined carbon footprint.
憑藉客戶對我們服務的強大吸引力以及強大的新功能管道,我們相信我們將在未來幾年實現低兩位數的 AGS 成長。雖然我對未來的機會感到興奮,但必須認識到,要實現這樣的未來,該行業還必須克服與複雜性、成本和綜合碳足跡相關的重大挑戰。
At Applied, we believe the way to do this is through closer collaboration and higher velocity innovation and commercialization of next-generation technology for energy-efficient computing.
在應用材料公司,我們相信實現這一目標的方法是透過更緊密的合作和更快的創新以及下一代節能運算技術的商業化。
In the past quarter, we announced 2 major initiatives: our EPIC platform in the United States and a collaborative engineering center in India. These investments will support even faster and better relationships with customers, universities, suppliers and government partners to accelerate time to innovation and time to commercialization while increasing our combined R&D productivity. In addition, we're also driving a collaborative approach to reduce carbon emissions as the industry grows.
在過去的一個季度,我們宣布了兩項重大舉措:位於美國的 EPIC 平台和位於印度的協作工程中心。這些投資將支持與客戶、大學、供應商和政府合作夥伴建立更快、更好的關係,以加快創新和商業化時間,同時提高我們的綜合研發生產力。此外,隨著產業的發展,我們也推動合作方式來減少碳排放。
In July, we rolled out our collaborative Net Zero Playbook, and we announced 2 major new products that help customers with carbon reductions: our Vistara platform, which lowers platform energy consumption by up to 35% and increases throughput density by as much as 30% and EcoTwin, that enables customers to monitor, model and optimize chemical and energy consumption by tool and by recipe.
7 月份,我們推出了協作式淨零排放策略,並宣布了兩款幫助客戶減少碳排放的主要新產品:Vistara 平台,可將平台能耗降低高達 35%,並將吞吐量密度提高高達 30%;EcoTwin,使客戶能夠按工具和配方監控、建模和優化化學品和能源消耗。
Before I hand over to Brice, I'll quickly summarize. Advanced chips are at the foundation of major global inflections and as the IoT AI era takes shape is driving a new wave of growth and innovation for the semiconductor industry.
在交給 Brice 之前,我將快速總結一下。先進的晶片是全球重大變革的基礎,隨著物聯網人工智慧時代的形成,它正在推動半導體產業新一輪的成長和創新。
At Applied, we have focused our strategy and investments to deliver high-value technologies that enable key IoT and AI-driven inflections. We have strong leadership positions in ICAPS, leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM and heterogeneous integration using advanced packaging. This strategy is enabling us to consistently deliver strong results in 2023 despite lower overall wafer fab equipment spending and positions us for sustainable outperformance over the coming years.
在應用材料公司,我們專注於策略和投資,以提供支援物聯網和人工智慧驅動關鍵變革的高價值技術。我們在 ICAPS、尖端代工邏輯、DRAM 和採用先進封裝的異質整合領域擁有強大的領導地位。這項策略使我們能夠在 2023 年持續取得強勁業績,儘管整體晶圓廠設備支出較低,並為我們在未來幾年實現可持續的優異表現奠定了基礎。
Now Brice, it's over to you.
現在布萊斯,輪到你了。
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Thank you, Gary. On today's call, I'll discuss the business environment, summarize our Q3 results, provide our guidance for Q4 and frame the investments we're making in our R&D infrastructure.
謝謝你,加里。在今天的電話會議上,我將討論商業環境,總結我們的第三季業績,提供第四季度的指導,並規劃我們在研發基礎設施方面的投資。
Before covering the near term, I'll remind you of our longer-term thesis. First, we believe the semiconductor industry is on track to grow faster than the overall economy over time and reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030. Second, Applied's leadership in materials engineering is increasingly critical to our customers' road maps. Third, Applied's broad portfolio of differentiated products, balanced market exposure and growing services business, make us less volatile today than in the past and more likely to grow faster than our markets. And fourth, our efficient business model generates strong profitability and free cash flow, which enables us to both invest in profitable growth and deliver attractive shareholder returns.
在介紹近期觀點之前,我想先提醒大家我們的長期觀點。首先,我們相信半導體產業的成長速度將超過整體經濟,到 2030 年銷售額將達到 1 兆美元。第三,應用材料公司廣泛的差異化產品組合、均衡的市場佔有率和不斷增長的服務業務,使我們今天的波動性比過去更小,而且更有可能比我們的市場增長更快。第四,我們高效的商業模式產生了強勁的獲利能力和自由現金流,這使我們能夠投資於獲利性成長並為股東帶來可觀的回報。
Moving now to the Q3 business environment. We continue to see strength in ICAPS, which largely offset weakness in leading-edge foundry logic and NAND. ICAPS demand was broad-based, generating record revenue in 200-millimeter systems and record revenue in Europe. In fact, the United States, Japan and Europe are the fastest-growing ICAPS regions this year. Around the world, customers and governments are making long-term investments to ensure future supply of a wide range of semiconductors needed to support growing demand in key industries such as automotive, medical equipment and renewable energy to name a few.
現在轉到 Q3 商業環境。我們繼續看到 ICAPS 的強勢,這在很大程度上抵消了尖端代工邏輯和 NAND 的疲軟。 ICAPS 的需求基礎廣泛,在 200 毫米系統和歐洲創造了創紀錄的收入。事實上,美國、日本和歐洲是今年成長最快的 ICAPS 地區。世界各地的客戶和政府正在進行長期投資,以確保未來供應各種半導體,以滿足汽車、醫療設備和再生能源等關鍵產業日益增長的需求。
Turning to our operational performance in Q3. Our teams delivered strong results. We exceeded our revenue guidance across semiconductor systems, services and display. We improved our delivery performance in systems and services and made further progress reducing inventory. Cash from operations and free cash flow were both the second highest in our history.
談談我們第三季的營運表現。我們的團隊取得了出色的成績。我們在半導體系統、服務和顯示器方面的收入均超出預期。我們提升了系統和服務的交付績效,並在降低庫存方面取得了進一步的進展。營運現金流和自由現金流均為史上第二高。
Now I'll summarize our Q3 financial results. Company revenue was nearly $6.43 billion, down 1% year-over-year and in the upper end of the guidance range. Non-GAAP gross margin was slightly above our guidance, and operating expenses were slightly below. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.90, down 2% year-over-year and near the high end of guidance.
現在我將總結我們的第三季財務表現。公司營收接近 64.3 億美元,年減 1%,處於預期範圍的上限。非公認會計準則毛利率略高於我們的預期,而營業費用略低於我們的預期。非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.90 美元,年減 2%,接近預期高點。
Turning to the segments. Semi Systems revenue of $4.68 billion was down 1% year-over-year. Segment non-GAAP operating margin was 34.8%. Applied Global Services generated record revenue of over $1.46 billion and non-GAAP operating margin of 29.3%. This was AGS' 16th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. While 200-millimeter system sales contributed to the growth, the team also made strong progress driving the leading indicators of our subscription business. For example, tools under service agreement are up 5% year-over-year to over 16,000 systems and tools under comprehensive service agreement, which have the highest revenue per tool, are up 7% year-over-year, reaching 12,000 systems.
轉向各個部分。 Semi Systems 營收為 46.8 億美元,年減 1%。分部非公認會計準則營業利益率為34.8%。應用全球服務部創造了超過 14.6 億美元的創紀錄營收,非 GAAP 營業利潤率達到 29.3%。這是 AGS 連續第 16 個季度實現同比增長。 200 毫米系統的銷售促進了成長,同時團隊也在推動訂閱業務的領先指標方面取得了強勁進展。例如,服務協議下的工具年增 5%,達到 16,000 多個系統,而每件工具收入最高的綜合服務協議下的工具年增 7%,達到 12,000 個系統。
In Display, revenue grew sequentially to $235 million, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was 15.7%. Turning to cash flows. We generated $2.58 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter, which is 40% of revenue. We produced over $2.3 billion in free cash flow, which is 36% of revenue. We distributed $707 million to shareholders through quarterly dividends and share buybacks. We paid $268 million in dividends, and the dividend per share was $0.32, reflecting the 23% increase announced in March. We used $439 million to repurchase nearly 3.4 million shares at an average price below $130.
顯示業務方面,營收季增至 2.35 億美元,分部非 GAAP 營業利益率為 15.7%。轉向現金流。本季我們產生了 25.8 億美元的營運現金流,佔營收的 40%。我們產生了超過23億美元的自由現金流,佔營收的36%。我們透過季度股利和股票回購向股東分配了 7.07 億美元。我們支付了 2.68 億美元的股息,每股股息為 0.32 美元,反映了 3 月宣布的 23% 的成長。我們動用4.39億美元以低於130美元的平均價格回購了近340萬股。
Now I'll share our guidance for Q4. We expect Q4 company revenue to be $6.51 billion, plus or minus $400 million. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $2 plus or minus $0.18. Within the guidance, we expect semi systems revenue to be around $4.75 billion. We expect DRAM revenue to be up by around $500 million quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by trailing edge shipments. We expect AGS revenue to be about $1.42 billion and display revenue should be around $290 million. We expect Applied's non-GAAP gross margin to be about 47%, and we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be around $1.17 billion. We continue to model a tax rate of 12.3%.
現在我將分享我們對第四季的指導。我們預計第四季公司營收為 65.1 億美元,上下浮動 4 億美元。我們預期非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 2 美元正負 0.18 美元。在指引範圍內,我們預計半系統營收將達到 47.5 億美元左右。我們預計 DRAM 營收將比上一季成長約 5 億美元,主要受後緣出貨量的推動。我們預計AGS收入約14.2億美元,顯示器收入約2.9億美元。我們預計應用材料公司的非 GAAP 毛利率約為 47%,我們預計非 GAAP 營運費用約為 11.7 億美元。我們繼續模擬12.3%的稅率。
Finally, as we said last quarter, we plan to make a multibillion-dollar investment in new R&D infrastructure over the next several years to significantly expand our capacity to collaborate more closely and productively with our customers as we develop next-generation materials, process technologies and equipment. The scale of the investment will depend on our ability to secure government support. The EPIC Center is expected to come online in fiscal 2026. And while we expect our capital expenditures to be higher over the next several years, there is no change to our strong commitment to shareholder returns.
最後,正如我們上個季度所說的那樣,我們計劃在未來幾年內對新的研發基礎設施進行數十億美元的投資,以在開發下一代材料、製程技術和設備時顯著擴大我們與客戶更緊密、更有效率合作的能力。投資規模取決於我們獲得政府支持的能力。 EPIC 中心預計將於 2026 財年上線。
In summary, Applied Materials continues to execute well. We are making good progress against our internal goals and outperforming our markets. While wafer fab equipment spending is lower in calendar '23, our semi systems revenue in the first 3 calendar quarters is trending slightly up year-over-year, and our services business remains on track for year-over-year growth. We've aligned our business with the fastest-growing end markets and are winning key decisions across leading-edge foundry, logic, DRAM, ICAPS and advanced packaging.
總而言之,應用材料公司繼續表現良好。我們在實現內部目標方面取得了良好進展,並且表現優於市場。雖然23年晶圓廠設備支出較低,但我們前三個季度的半導體系統營收較去年同期略有上升,我們的服務業務仍維持年增的動能。我們已將業務與成長最快的終端市場保持一致,並在領先的代工、邏輯、DRAM、ICAPS 和先進封裝領域做出了關鍵決策。
We are in a great position to invest for technology leadership and growth, generate strong free cash flow and increase shareholder returns.
我們處於有利地位,可以投資於技術領先和成長,產生強勁的自由現金流並增加股東回報。
Now Mike, let's begin the Q&A.
現在,麥克,我們開始問答環節。
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Thanks, Brice. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please begin.
謝謝,布萊斯。 (操作員指令) 操作員,請開始。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein.
(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的史黛西·拉斯岡(Stacy Rasgon)。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
I wanted to ask about the DRAM in the quarter in the guide. So DRAM in the quarter was strong and you've got a lot of growth in the next quarter. You said it was mostly from trailing edge. Am I right in reading that is primarily the Chinese customer driving that?
我想問一下指南中該季度的 DRAM 的情況。因此,本季的 DRAM 表現強勁,下個季度將實現很大的成長。您說它主要來自後緣。我的理解是否正確?
And maybe you could sort of talk a little bit about your strength in China that is from DRAM versus foundry. It almost sounds like the DRAM piece is stronger than the ICAPS space in China right now.
也許您可以稍微談談你們在中國在 DRAM 和代工方面的優勢。這聽起來似乎 DRAM 領域目前比中國的 ICAPS 領域更強大。
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Thanks, Stacy. Thanks for your question. This is Brice. Yes, so we highlighted in Q4 that we'll see sequential growth in DRAM. It is related to confirming technologies that we can ship to customers in China. We've gotten lots of customers about that -- or questions about that during the quarter. So we wanted to make sure that people got that answer. So you'll see that growth in Q4. It probably won't be the only quarter where we'll have shipments along those lines, but we wanted to make that clear on the trend quarter-over-quarter.
謝謝,史黛西。感謝您的提問。這是布萊斯。是的,因此我們在第四季度強調我們將看到 DRAM 的連續成長。這與確認我們可以發送給中國客戶的技術有關。本季度,我們收到了許多客戶對此事的詢問。因此我們希望確保人們能夠得到答案。因此您會在第四季度看到這種增長。這可能不是我們唯一一個出現此類出貨量的季度,但我們希望明確指出季度環比的趨勢。
And one more thing that I'd add, we think that's something that's not well understood by the investors that while the memory market has been weak for our customers, the DRAM market actually has been fairly strong this year from an equipment perspective, and this is just a continuation of that profile for us. So we've got a good position in DRAM, and that is manifesting in Q4.
我想補充一點,我們認為投資者對此還不太了解,雖然記憶體市場對我們的客戶來說一直很疲軟,但從設備角度來看,今年的 DRAM 市場實際上相當強勁,這只是我們這一情況的延續。因此,我們在 DRAM 領域佔據了有利地位,這在第四季度得到了體現。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Is that all going to start in Q3? Go ahead, I'm sorry.
這一切都會在第三季開始嗎?繼續吧,對不起。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes. Maybe just let me add some color and then you can ask the follow-on question. So DRAM, we've added about 10 points of overall DRAM wafer fab equipment share in the last 10 years. So if you look at the big inflections in DRAM, the periphery moving to high-speed IO for high-bandwidth memory, we're taking logic technologies into DRAM. That's a really big driver for our share gains. Capacitor scaling is an area where we have strength, patterning share gains advanced packaging, especially high-bandwidth memory. So all of those areas are really big drivers for Applied and have contributed to this 10% overall WFE share gain in DRAM over the last 10 years.
是的。也許我只需要添加一些顏色,然後你就可以提出後續問題。因此,就 DRAM 而言,我們在過去 10 年中增加了約 10 個百分點的整體 DRAM 晶圓廠設備份額。因此,如果你觀察 DRAM 的巨大變化,即外圍設備轉向高頻寬記憶體的高速 IO,我們正在將邏輯技術引入 DRAM。這確實是我們股價上漲的一個巨大推動力。電容器縮放是我們的優勢領域,圖案化份額在先進封裝中佔有優勢,尤其是高頻寬記憶體。因此,所有這些領域都是應用材料公司發展的真正重要推動力,並促成了過去 10 年內 DRAM 領域 WFE 整體份額成長 10%。
And then you have another question, Stacy?
然後你還有其他問題嗎,史黛西?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
I think I got it, Stacy.
我想我明白了,史黛西。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Yes, I just wanted to follow up on for the quarter, DRAM was pretty strong in Q3. It was the same drivers?
是的,我只是想跟進本季的情況,DRAM 在第三季表現相當強勁。是同一個司機嗎?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
In Q3, there was a small amount of shipments to Chinese customers. So relatively small, Q4 would be larger.
第三季向中國客戶出貨量少量。因此相對較小,Q4 會較大。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。
Christopher James Muse - Former Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Former Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
I wanted to focus, I guess, on sustainability. You're talking about significant outperformance versus WFE here in calendar '23. And so a two-part question. So if you look out to the January quarter representing calendar year, are you suggesting that you guys should be kind of flat to down 4% kind of year?
我想專注於永續性。您所說的是 23 日曆年相對於 WFE 的顯著優異表現。這個問題由兩個部分組成。因此,如果您看一下代表日曆年的 1 月季度,您是否認為您的銷售額應該持平或下降 4% 左右?
And then as you look to calendar '24, can you speak to, I guess, what kind of pent-up demand in terms of deferred revenues is helping this year that won't be replicated next year versus gains where you see leverage to the right end markets and/or new technologies that can drive relative outperformance?
然後,當您展望 24 年日曆時,我猜您能否談談,就遞延收入而言,哪些被壓抑的需求在今年有所幫助,而明年又不會重複出現,與您看到對正確的終端市場和/或新技術的槓桿作用帶來的收益相比,這些收益可以推動相對優異的表現?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Okay. Thanks, C.J. Maybe I'll start with the 2024 because I think you were embedding a question there on in '23, how much did we benefit from unserved orders in '22. We think that's about $0.5 billion to $1 billion. All of that was served in the first half of the year. So what you're seeing from us in '23, besides that $0.5 billion to $1 billion is largely tracking with the business that we see, the WFE business that we see during the year. So there shouldn't be an overhang. There shouldn't be a benefit from any previously booked business that we see now or going forward.
好的。謝謝,C.J。我們認為這個數字約為 5 億到 10 億美元。所有這些都是在上半年實現的。因此,您在 23 年從我們這裡看到的除了 5 億美元到 10 億美元之外,基本上都與我們在這一年中看到的 WFE 業務保持一致。因此不應存在懸垂。我們現在或將來看到的任何先前預訂的業務都不應該帶來利益。
And as far as sustainability, that's one question we get regularly. The second question that we get regularly is just about ICAPS and the sustainability from China. And while that's the most -- the largest country in ICAPS for China, it's not the fastest growing. That's sort of a -- that's a global trend and a global demand function. We see that as very sustainable. We think gate-all-around will start shipping in earnest in '24. We think our services business will grow in '24. We think that the display business will be a little bit better in '24, so those are kind of the bits that we've given for '24. Otherwise, we're not going to give a specific forecast yet for '24 or for the January quarter.
就永續性而言,這是我們經常被問到的問題。我們經常收到的第二個問題是關於ICAPS和來自中國的可持續性。雖然中國是 ICAPS 中最大的國家,但它並不是成長最快的。這是一種——一種全球趨勢和全球需求函數。我們認為這是非常永續的。我們認為 gate-all-around 將於 24 年開始正式出貨。我們認為我們的服務業務將會在2024年成長。我們認為顯示器業務在24年會稍微好一些,所以這些就是我們為24年給出的一些預測。否則,我們還不會對24年或1月季度做出具體的預測。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
C.J., this is Gary. Maybe I'll add a little bit more color. On the leading-edge foundry logic, what we see is more of that spending moving to materials-enabled technologies, which is the sweet spot for Applied. So if you look at, again, the nodal spending, more is shifting to materials engineering, gate-all-around, we've talked about that's a $1 billion opportunity for us. Backside power, when that comes in, that really leverages all of our strength in interconnect. And that's probably the same ZIP code in terms of size of opportunity for Applied.
C.J.,這是加里。也許我會添加一點顏色。在前沿的代工邏輯方面,我們看到更多的支出轉向材料支援技術,這對應用材料來說是一個最佳點。因此,如果你再看一次節點支出,你會發現更多的是轉向材料工程、環柵技術,我們已經討論過這對我們來說是一個 10 億美元的機會。當後端電源投入使用時,它真正充分利用了我們在互連方面的所有優勢。就應用材料公司的機會規模而言,這可能與郵遞區號相同。
ICAPS, we've talked a lot about formed the organization 4 years ago. We've introduced 20 major new products since we formed the organization. And we still have room to grow in ICAPS share. DRAM, I talked about I think people really maybe don't understand the strength we have there. I talked about those big inflections and gaining 10 points of overall DRAM WFE share over the last 10 years.
ICAPS,我們四年前就成立該組織進行過多次討論。自公司成立以來,我們已推出了 20 款主要新產品。我們的 ICAPS 份額仍有成長空間。 DRAM,我談到了,我認為人們可能真的不了解我們在那裡的實力。我談到了這些重大變化以及 DRAM WFE 在過去 10 年內整體份額增加 10 個百分點。
Packaging, that's a $1 billion business for us now, and we see an opportunity to double that over the next few years. And as Brice said, services, we're going to be up in services in a relatively weak memory market in terms of utilization, and we're still on track for low double-digit growth. So again, those are some of the things that really will help us outperform over the longer term.
包裝對我們來說現在是價值 10 億美元的生意,我們有機會在未來幾年內將這一數字翻倍。正如布里斯所說,在服務方面,我們將在利用率相對較弱的記憶體市場中提高服務水平,並且仍有望實現低兩位數的成長。所以,從長遠來看,這些都是真正能夠幫助我們取得優異表現的因素。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
I wanted to understand what measures do you have in place to ensure that there isn't a pull forward of your mature technology shipments because of geopolitical reasons or because of take-or-pay arrangements? Do you have ways to measure the utilization of what you are shipping?
我想了解您採取了哪些措施來確保您的成熟技術出貨不會因為地緣政治原因或照付不議安排而提前下降?您有辦法衡量所運送物品的使用率嗎?
And if I kind of just ask that same thing in a different way, do you think Applied will grow in line above or below whatever WFE does in 2024?
如果我以不同的方式問同樣的問題,您認為應用材料在 2024 年的成長速度將高於還是低於 WFE 的成長速度?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Vivek, thanks for the question. I'll answer the second part first. So we do think Applied will grow faster than whatever the WFE is for the market. And that's a good way to think of it because we think of -- we think and plan for long-term secular growth, and we think we'll grow faster.
Vivek,謝謝你的提問。我先回答第二部分。因此,我們確實認為,無論 WFE 對市場的影響如何,應用材料的成長速度都將比其更快。這是一個很好的思考方式,因為我們考慮併計劃長期成長,我們認為我們會成長得更快。
On the question of pull forward and specific to China, we've got many ways to test that equation. One of the things that we do is we look at the amount of local capacity relative to local consumption. We think that there's strategic direction in the country and strategic incentives in the country to make the investments that will at least equal local consumption. And we think those things are tracking together and can rationalize what they've put in place from that perspective.
關於前拉問題,具體到中國,我們有很多方法來檢驗這個等式。我們所做的事情之一就是觀察當地產能相對於當地消費量的情況。我們認為,該國有戰略方向和戰略激勵措施,可以進行至少與當地消費相當的投資。我們認為這些事情是相輔相成的,從這個角度來看,他們可以合理化他們所實施的措施。
We also triangulate the overall capacity being purchased relative to semiconductor market itself. As you know, we test that with intensity, and we make sure that equation makes sense to us.
我們也對相對於半導體市場本身的購買總產能進行了三角測量。如您所知,我們對此進行了強度測試,並確保該等式對我們有意義。
And then from a micro perspective, we also look at the installation of our equipment. So we make sure when it lands in China, we understand that it's installed and then we track the utilization also at a macro level in the market. And we know that all that equipment is being installed and operated. And so we don't see signs of unneeded or unwanted or unused equipment pulling up from that perspective, and we think the buys are rational at this point.
然後從微觀角度,我們也會看設備的安裝。因此,我們確保當它抵達中國時,我們了解它的安裝情況,然後我們也在市場的宏觀層面追蹤其利用率。我們知道所有設備都正在安裝和運行。因此,從這個角度來看,我們沒有看到不需要的、不想要的或未使用的設備出現上漲的跡象,而且我們認為目前的購買是合理的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line Krish Sankar of Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Krish Sankar。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I kind of have a 2-part technology question for Gary. You spoke about high bandwidth memory and how it's benefiting advanced packaging, which makes a kind of sense given the exposure to TSV, et cetera. But on the other side, it seems like hybrid bonding is slowing down and some of your hybrid bonding customers are looking at things like thermal compression bonders, can you give any color on that?
我想問 Gary 兩個技術問題。您談到了高頻寬記憶體以及它如何使先進封裝受益,考慮到 TSV 等的影響,這在某種程度上是有意義的。但另一方面,似乎混合鍵合正在放緩,您的一些混合鍵合客戶正在關注熱壓鍵合機之類的產品,您能對此提供一些資訊嗎?
And along the same path, Gary, you've spoken about gate-all-around being like $1 billion for every 100,000 wafer starts per month incremental opportunity and 5-point share gains for Applied. You're there in most of those core technologies like epi, vertical epi, ALD, selective devices, et cetera, are customers in gate-all-around making bundling decisions? Or are they still going with best-of-breed solution?
蓋瑞,沿著同樣的思路,您談到環繞閘極技術將為應用材料公司帶來每月每 10 萬片晶圓的增量機會和 5 個百分點的市佔率收益 10 億美元。你們在大多數核心技術方面都有所涉獵,例如外延、垂直外延、ALD、選擇性設備等等,環柵技術的客戶是否會做出捆綁決策?或者他們仍在採用最佳解決方案?
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Well, thank you. Those are 2 big questions. Let me start off with high-bandwidth memory packaging. So that uses 2 critical packaging technologies through silicon via and micro bumping to enable stacked DRAM. And the great thing for Applied is that we have the broadest portfolio to enable all different types of packaging CMP, PVD, CVD, etch and plating. So this opportunity for us is meaningful. The TAM for HBM increases about the overall packaging by about 5%. We're the overall leader in packaging as we have talked about, it's a $1 billion business, and we're on track to double that over the next 3 to 5 years. So that's definitely a good opportunity.
好吧,謝謝你。這是兩個大問題。讓我先從高頻寬記憶體封裝開始。因此,透過矽通孔和微凸塊兩種關鍵封裝技術,可以實現堆疊 DRAM。對於應用材料公司來說,最棒的事情是,我們擁有最廣泛的產品組合,可支援所有不同類型的封裝 CMP、PVD、CVD、蝕刻和電鍍。所以這個機會對我們來說很有意義。 HBM 的 TAM 比整體封裝增加了約 5%。正如我們之前所說,我們是包裝領域的領導者,這是一個價值 10 億美元的產業,我們預計在未來 3 到 5 年內將這一數字翻倍。所以這絕對是一個很好的機會。
On the hybrid bonding, what I would say is that we absolutely see hybrid bonding as a great opportunity over time. It's not something that is going to generate significant revenue in the short term, but chiplets are something that every single company is focused on, and I do believe all of the things that we've discussed relative to growth rates there, we still believe that's on track.
關於混合鍵合,我想說的是,我們絕對認為混合鍵結隨著時間的推移是一個巨大的機會。它不會在短期內產生可觀的收入,但小晶片是每家公司都關注的重點,我相信我們討論的所有與成長率有關的事情,我們仍然相信這是在正軌上。
And then gate-all-around the other question that you asked, we still see that as about $1 billion opportunity for 100,000 wafer starts per month. And in FinFET, we had close to 50% share of that overall FinFET opportunity. We've indicated with the full adoption of gate-all-around, we have an opportunity to increase our share 5%.
然後,關於您提出的另一個問題,我們仍然認為,對於每月 10 萬片晶圓而言,這是一個價值約 10 億美元的機會。在 FinFET 領域,我們佔有近 50% 的整體 FinFET 機會份額。我們已表明,隨著環柵技術的全面採用,我們有機會將我們的份額提高 5%。
And I think one of the things that helps us a lot is that we're deeply engaged with every company in gate-all-around, even with their integration teams because we have so many of those critical enabling technologies. So all the things we talked about back to our Master Class when we size that around $1 billion is basically still on track. And relative to ramping gate-all-around, we believe that is towards the end of 2024.
我認為對我們幫助很大的一件事是,我們與每家環閘技術公司都有深入的合作,甚至與他們的整合團隊也有合作,因為我們擁有許多關鍵的支援技術。因此,當我們將規模定在 10 億美元左右時,我們在大師班上討論的所有事情基本上仍在按計劃進行。相對於全面推進閘極驅動技術,我們認為這將在 2024 年底實現。
And well, the other thing is on the unit processes in IMS. There are some areas of that market where we're combining different technologies together under vacuum, which is something that's completely unique for Applied Materials. that has a big impact on electrical performance. But the main message is we have very, very deep engagements with all of those integration teams and gate-all-around is pretty much on track to what we had talked about previously.
另一件事是關於 IMS 中的單元流程。在該市場的某些領域,我們在真空條件下將不同的技術結合在一起,這對於應用材料公司來說是完全獨一無二的。這對電氣性能有很大影響。但主要的訊息是,我們與所有這些整合團隊都有非常深入的合作,而且全封閉專案基本上按照我們之前談論的內容進行。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的Toshiya Hari。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
I had a follow-up on your ICAPS business, maybe for Brice. So how big was ICAPS as a percentage of your business in the July quarter? Where do you see that going in the second half of the calendar year?
我對您的 ICAPS 業務進行了跟踪,也許是為了 Brice。那麼,7 月季度,ICAPS 佔貴公司業務的比例是多少?您認為今年下半年的情況如何?
And maybe more importantly, yourself and Gary talked about sustainability in the business. I think the rationale for China makes a ton of sense. How are you thinking about the U.S., Europe and Japan, where your customers, yes, they're strategic, but they also care about near-term profitability and returns with some of the end markets slowing, is there a fear that the non-China business within ICAPS could slow going forward?
也許更重要的是,您和加里討論了業務的可持續性。我認為中國的理由非常有道理。您如何看待美國、歐洲和日本?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Okay. Thanks, Toshiya. On the ICAPS, we haven't articulated exactly how big it is. What we've said is this year, it's our largest market. It grew very strongly last year. It's growing strongly again this year. And we've said, over the longer term, as you think about the business, it's probably 1/3 ICAPS, 1/3 leading logic and 1/3 memory and that's about as much. But you can get a feel for it. As we said all year, the ICAPS business growth has been strong enough to offset weakness in NAND and leading logic. So those -- that will let you probably get a ballpark.
好的。謝謝,Toshiya。關於 ICAPS,我們還沒有明確說明它到底有多大。我們說過,今年這是我們最大的市場。去年它的成長非常強勁。今年它再次強勁增長。我們說過,從長遠來看,當你考慮業務時,它可能是 1/3 ICAPS、1/3 領先邏輯和 1/3 內存,大概就是這樣。但你可以感受一下。正如我們全年所說的那樣,ICAPS 業務成長足夠強勁,可以抵消 NAND 和領先邏輯的疲軟。所以這些——可能會讓你知道一個大概的數字。
On the regionalization, we do think that regionalization leads to a little bit more spending globally for ICAPS. But we also look and see whether that's a sustainable trend from our perspective. We look at the underlying businesses and the growth rates of all the device types that are being invested whether it's China or whether it's the different markets across the world. And we rationalize that, and we think all of the investment that's being made is consistent with the growth rates of those underlying devices and markets. So 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% CAGRs for the different device types that fall into that, like computer vision, analog, power chips, those sorts of markets. And then on the last piece...
關於區域化,我們確實認為區域化會導致 ICAPS 在全球範圍內的支出略有增加。但我們也會從我們的角度觀察這是否是一個可持續的趨勢。我們專注於基礎業務和所有正在投資的設備類型的成長率,無論是中國還是世界各地的不同市場。我們對此進行了合理化,並認為所做的所有投資都與這些基礎設備和市場的成長率一致。因此,不同類型的設備(如電腦視覺、類比、電源晶片等市場)的複合年增長率分別為 6%、7%、8%、9%。然後是最後一部分...
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
Different geos and profitability.
不同的地理位置和盈利能力。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes. One thing I would say on the -- Toshiya, this is Gary. Relative to regionalization of the supply. One of the things that is extremely important is some of those ICAPS segments are tied to very large vertical markets in those different regions. So having a secure supply chain is something that is a big focus for every country. There are hundreds of billions of dollars of incentives there for supporting those different ICAPS markets. So that's another thing that certainly we're seeing.
是的。我想說的是--Toshiya,我是 Gary。相對於供應的區域化。其中極為重要的一點是,其中一些 ICAPS 細分市場與不同地區的大型垂直市場相關。因此,擁有安全的供應鏈是每個國家都關注的重點。有數千億美元的激勵措施用於支持這些不同的 ICAPS 市場。這是我們確實看到的另一件事。
And the last thing I'd say is relative to opportunities, the -- not only is it systems, but as companies are moving into new locations. That's a really great opportunity for our service business because there is no service infrastructure set up for those companies moving into new regions. And that certainly will help us. We're on track for the low-double-digit growth in our service business, but the opportunity is supported by this regionalization.
我要說的最後一件事與機會有關,這不僅是系統問題,也是公司搬遷到新地點的問題。對於我們的服務業務來說,這是一個絕佳的機會,因為目前還沒有為那些進入新地區的公司建立服務基礎設施。這肯定會對我們有幫助。我們的服務業務預計將實現低兩位數的成長,但區域化帶來的機會也隨之而來。
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Good. And Toshiya, yes, I forgot the last piece of your question was on the business -- the health of the business today and whether customers are lowering starts or changing their plans and that certainly happens in the environment. We've seen it, but I would just remind you, the way people are doing equipment investments, it's a 2-, 3-, 4-year planning horizon. So they're really making investments for what the demand function they see that far out in time and that makes their purchasing a little bit more stable than whatever the current demand function is.
好的。 Toshiya,是的,我忘了你問題的最後一個部分是關於業務的——當前業務的健康狀況以及客戶是否降低了開工率或改變了他們的計劃,這些在環境中肯定會發生。我們已經看到了這一點,但我只想提醒你,人們進行設備投資的方式是2年、3年、4年的規劃期。因此,他們實際上是根據他們所看到的長遠需求函數進行投資,這使得他們的購買比當前的需求函數更穩定。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。
Harlan L. Sur - Executive Director and Head of U.S. Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment
Harlan L. Sur - Executive Director and Head of U.S. Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment
eBeam has been doing very well in process control. It's about 10% to 12% of your systems business. I think it grew above 55%, 60% faster than your overall systems business last year. Gary, you talked about strong technology inflections and benefits across the wafer equipment portfolio, but I'm assuming this is also putting strong requirements for more and better process control.
eBeam 在製程控制方面表現非常出色。它約佔您系統業務的 10% 到 12%。我認為它的成長速度比去年的整體系統業務快 55% 到 60% 以上。加里,您談到了晶圓設備產品組合的強大技術變化和優勢,但我認為這也對更多更好的製程控制提出了更高的要求。
So with that, I mean, can you just give us an update on process control portfolio? And how is that segment performing relative to your overall systems business this year?
那麼,我的意思是,您能否向我們提供有關製程控制產品組合的最新資訊?相對於今年的整體系統業務而言,該部門的表現如何?
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Harlan, thanks for the question. So PDC for us, there are really 2 major areas of focus. One is, as you've talked about, is growth within PDC but the other thing that is increasingly important is the synergy with PDC and our process equipment, both for unit equipment and integrated material solutions, accelerating R&D for some of these major inflections.
哈蘭,謝謝你的提問。因此對我們來說,PDC 實際上有兩個主要關注領域。一方面,正如您所說,是PDC內部的成長,但另一方面也越來越重要的是PDC與我們的製程設備的協同作用,包括單元設備與整合材料解決方案,加速對一些重大變化的研發。
So on the PDC growth, the business grew about 2x between 2020 and 2022, eBeam is one of the fastest-growing segments there. And we've maintained our leadership with around 50% overall share in eBeam. We have new products coming to market. We've talked about in our Master Class, the cold field emission with the highest resolution and fastest imaging. So that's helping that business growth.
因此,就 PDC 成長而言,業務在 2020 年至 2022 年期間成長了約 2 倍,eBeam 是其中成長最快的細分市場之一。我們仍然保持領先地位,在 eBeam 的總份額約為 50%。我們有新產品即將上市。我們在大師班上討論過具有最高解析度和最快成像速度的冷場發射。這有助於業務成長。
And then on the synergy, we had discussed the capacitor formation in DRAM, where we're bringing new materials, new etching solutions together with eBeam technology, again, to accelerate those inflections, nano sheets and gate-all-around.
然後關於協同作用,我們討論了 DRAM 中的電容器形成,我們將新材料、新蝕刻解決方案與 eBeam 技術結合在一起,再次加速這些拐點、奈米片和環柵。
These technologies are incredibly complex and you can't fix what you can't see. And our eBeam imaging is world-class, ahead of anyone else. And so that synergy value is increasing. That will also help our growth in our market share overall, in our semiconductor product group, but in PDC. So again, we're really in a great position, strong pipeline of products coming in PDC and great synergies with overall Applied.
這些技術極為複雜,你無法修復看不見的東西。我們的電子束成像是世界一流的,領先於任何其他公司。因此協同價值正在增加。這也將有助於我們提高整個半導體產品組以及PDC的市場佔有率。所以,我們再次重申,我們確實處於非常有利的地位,PDC 擁有強大的產品線,並且與整個應用公司具有良好的協同效應。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of UBS Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀證券的提摩西‧阿庫裡。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
I had a 2-part question. First of all, Brice, can you give us a sense of the $1.7 billion that's in July for China revenue, can you tell us how much of that is domestic, China chipmakers versus other multis that might have fabs in China, but they're not domestic Chinese chipmakers?
我有兩個問題。首先,布萊斯,您能否告訴我們 7 月份中國收入為 17 億美元的情況,其中有多少來自國內市場,有多少來自中國晶片製造商,以及其他可能在中國設有晶圓廠但不是中國本土晶片製造商的跨國公司?
And then part 2 of the question is, is how do you handicap the potential that this China DRAM is a pull-in? I mean we have Micron as the band in China. We have a China memory maker now taking $100 million more worth of your tools in October versus July, that's $2 billion to $2.5 billion worth of extra WFE that's just in that's just in that 1 quarter. So how do you handicap sort of how you run the production factory? Do you count on that being sustained? Do you think that it's possible that it could be a pull in, if you can just comment on that.
然後問題的第二部分是,您如何限制中國 DRAM 的吸引力?我的意思是,我們在中國有美光 (Micron) 樂團。我們有一家中國記憶體製造商,10 月從你們那裡多獲得了價值 1 億美元的工具,而這僅僅是該季度的額外 WFE 價值 20 億至 25 億美元。那麼您如何阻礙生產工廠的運作呢?您認為這種情況能夠持續下去嗎?您認為這可能具有吸引力嗎,您可以對此發表評論嗎?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Sure. Thanks for the questions, Tim. So on the $1.7 billion for China, about 27% of our revenue. It's almost all -- it's not 100%, but it's almost all domestic Chinese customers, very little on the multinational at this point. And then -- and just a reminder, it does include a portion of our services business. It does include a portion of our display business in that number also.
當然。謝謝你的提問,提姆。因此,中國市場的 17 億美元約占我們營收的 27%。幾乎全部——雖然不是 100%,但幾乎全部都是中國國內客戶,目前跨國客戶很少。然後—提醒一下,它確實包括了我們服務業務的一部分。這個數字也包括了我們一部分展示業務。
And then on the handicapping whether it's a pull-in for the traditional or legacy DRAM, I certainly don't get to pull-in. This is a technology that was viewed as not being part of the rules where technologies were restricted for China. So it's an existing technology. I think they'll put that equipment into operation as quickly as possible. And just in general, if we go up to 100,000 feet on this question, for equipment like that, that's being installed in China, our view is that it's not incremental if it weren't allowed to be shipped there, that it would be shipped somewhere else in the world for production. So we just view it as mainly location, and we triangulate the amount of equipment we're selling against the overall demand function. So we view it as location, not incremental.
然後,對於它是否對傳統 DRAM 或舊式 DRAM 具有吸引力這一問題,我當然無法做出判斷。這項技術被認為不屬於中國受限制技術規則的範圍。所以它是一項現有技術。我認為他們會盡快讓該設備投入運作。總體而言,如果我們將這個問題上升到 100,000 英尺的高度,對於在中國安裝的此類設備,我們的觀點是,如果不允許將其運往中國,那麼它就不會產生增量,而是會被運往世界其他地方進行生產。因此,我們只是將其主要視為位置,並根據總體需求函數對我們銷售的設備數量進行三角測量。因此我們將其視為位置,而非增量。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇(Joe Quatrochi)。
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst
Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst
Yes. When we look at your ICAPS portfolio, how do we think about your technology leadership over some of the emerging competitors? And specifically in China, just given some of the comments around their efforts to localize their supply chain, I guess what -- are there certain markets where you have broader leadership or more competitive advantage? I guess how do we think about that competition?
是的。當我們審視您的 ICAPS 產品組合時,我們如何看待您相對於一些新興競爭對手的技術領導地位?特別是在中國,考慮到他們在本地化供應鏈方面的努力,我想問一下,在某些市場你們是否擁有更廣泛的領導力或更具競爭優勢?我想我們該如何看待那場比賽呢?
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes. Thanks for the question, Joe. So I would say we're always focused on competition, even in noncritical process steps, and the main focus for us at Applied is to keep innovating in all areas of our portfolio and create deeper strategic relationships with the leaders in all device segments.
是的。謝謝你的提問,喬。因此我想說,我們始終專注於競爭,即使在非關鍵工藝步驟中,而應用材料公司的主要重點是繼續在我們產品組合的所有領域進行創新,並與所有設備領域的領導者建立更深的策略關係。
In ICAPS, as we've talked about 4 years ago, we formed that group, and this has paid off with share gains, helped us build deep strategic relationships with all the leading customers. And I'd say that those strategic relationships begin with the integration teams, whether it's in the leading edge or an ICAPS is super important because those technologies are always moving very quickly and learning faster than others is really important.
在 ICAPS,正如我們四年前談到的那樣,我們組建了這個團隊,並且透過份額成長獲得了回報,幫助我們與所有主要客戶建立了深厚的策略關係。我想說,這些策略關係始於整合團隊,無論是處於前沿還是 ICAPS 都非常重要,因為這些技術總是發展得非常快,比其他人更快學習非常重要。
We've talked about in ICAPS since we formed this group we launched 20 major new ICAPS products. And I would tell you that we also have a strong pipeline of new innovations that will continue to strengthen our positions.
我們在 ICAPS 中討論過,自從我們成立這個小組以來,我們推出了 20 款主要的新型 ICAPS 產品。我想告訴你們的是,我們還擁有強大的創新管道,這將繼續鞏固我們的地位。
The last thing I'd say in ICAPS is there are still -- again, we have the strongest strategic position, broadest portfolio, we're working with those integration teams on their next-generation technologies. But we also have room to grow in certain segments like etch and PDC. We have momentum in those segments, and that certainly is going to help us continue to gain share in the coming years.
我在 ICAPS 最後要說的是,我們仍然擁有最強大的策略地位和最廣泛的產品組合,我們正在與那些整合團隊合作開發他們的下一代技術。但我們在蝕刻和PDC等某些領域還有成長空間。我們在這些領域有著強勁的發展勢頭,這無疑將有助於我們在未來幾年繼續獲得市場份額。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
Great. I was surprised to see services at a record level given the utilization issues in memory. Can you talk about that? And I mean, are you still -- are you seeing headwinds from the memory side that are incremental and you're just offsetting that with strength elsewhere? And kind of what does that tell us about where that business can go when utilizations come back up.
偉大的。考慮到記憶體利用率問題,我很驚訝地看到服務達到了創紀錄的水平。你能談談這個嗎?我的意思是,您是否仍然——看到內存方面的阻力在逐漸增大,而您只是通過其他方面的力量來抵消它?那麼這能告訴我們當利用率恢復時該業務將走向何方嗎?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Okay. Thanks, Joe. This is Brice. So yes, the services business, 16 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth. It was a record this quarter. And yes, the puts and takes there are that the transactional spares and the transactional activities that sort of are associated with utilization are significantly lower in the quarter. And then what we see that's higher in the quarter that drove that growth was really the 200-millimeter equipment. So we talk about ICAPS growth and the strength of those markets. And the 200-millimeter equipment is really what's driving the significant upside in the services business for the quarter.
好的。謝謝,喬。這是布萊斯。是的,服務業務連續 16 個季度實現同比增長。這是本季的一個紀錄。是的,其中的利弊在於,本季與利用率相關的交易備件和交易活動明顯較低。然後我們看到,推動該成長的本季銷量較高的實際上是 200 毫米設備。因此我們討論 ICAPS 的成長和這些市場的實力。 200 毫米設備才是本季服務業務大幅成長的真正推動力。
And then on the second part of the question, incremental headwinds for memory. When we think about the memory market, there's been discussion of when will it be turning around and when will we see upside. The indicators that we follow: price, inventory and utilization, we still see trending in the negative direction or flat. So we haven't seen a turn at this point. But we wanted to be careful to point out that in the DRAM market, we have seen strength this year. And it's sort of a normal year from an equipment perspective on the DRAM side, even though the memory market itself has been weak.
然後關於問題的第二部分,記憶體面臨的阻力逐漸增加。當我們考慮記憶體市場時,就會討論它何時會出現好轉以及何時會出現上漲趨勢。我們關注的指標:價格、庫存和利用率,我們仍然看到呈負趨勢或持平。因此我們目前還沒有看到轉折。但我們想謹慎地指出,在 DRAM 市場,我們今年已經看到了強勁成長。儘管記憶體市場本身一直很疲軟,但從 DRAM 設備的角度來看,今年還是正常的一年。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes, Joe, this is Gary. I think the other thing to add is that part of our business is based on service agreements and that also helps us have a higher level of stability. We're over 60% on the service agreements. And again, that's keeping that part of the business much more stable, even though the memory utilization is down. And the other thing I would say is that there is a significant amount of complexity. If you think about all the inflections, whether it's in memory with DRAM or ICAPS or leading-edge foundry logic, about 1/3 of our revenue are these integrated material solutions with multiple technologies combined in a single platform under vacuum, those are increasing, those steps are increasing and the service opportunity for us is also increasing.
是的,喬,這是加里。我認為另一件需要補充的事情是,我們的部分業務是基於服務協議,這也有助於我們實現更高水準的穩定性。我們的服務協議已完成超過60%。再次,即使記憶體利用率下降,這也會使該部分業務更加穩定。我想說的另一件事是,存在著相當多的複雜性。如果你考慮所有的拐點,無論是在DRAM還是ICAPS內存中,還是在尖端的代工邏輯中,我們大約1/3的收入來自這些在真空條件下在單一平台上結合多種技術的集成材料解決方案,這些都在增加,這些步驟在增加,我們的服務機會也在增加。
So we've talked about the low double-digit growth in service. Once you come back to more normal levels of utilization, and we have a high confidence we're going to be able to achieve that.
我們討論了服務業的低兩位數成長。一旦恢復到更正常的利用率水平,我們就很有信心能夠實現這一目標。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Brian Chin of Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Maybe firstly, it seems difficult to imagine AI not driving incremental foundry capital spending in the next up cycle. So have you thought about how much incremental WFE spend in future years could result from AI driven wafer start expansion?
也許首先,很難想像人工智慧不會在下一個上升週期中推動代工廠資本支出的增量。那麼,您是否考慮過,未來幾年,人工智慧驅動的晶圓啟動擴張將帶來多少 WFE 支出的增量?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brian, thanks for the question. We certainly have, when we think about the WFE share of the different end markets, data center has approximately 20%, we think AI is about 5%, AI-related WFE is about 5% of our overall market. And you've heard different peers talking about a high growth rate bearing between 30% and 50% for that workload and the amount of capacity. So if you view 5% as a relatively small amount, we do think that it's growing rapidly and will be an important workload going forward. So that's our sizing for now.
布萊恩,謝謝你的提問。當然有,當我們考慮不同終端市場的 WFE 份額時,資料中心約佔 20%,我們認為 AI 約佔 5%,與 AI 相關的 WFE 約占我們整體市場的 5%。您可能聽過不同的同行談論工作量和容量的高成長率,約為 30% 至 50%。因此,如果您認為 5% 是相對較小的金額,我們確實認為它正在快速成長,並且將成為未來重要的工作量。這就是我們目前的尺寸。
And as a comparison, we would hold that next to 10% to 15% of wafers that would be associated with IoT, and we think those things, IoT wafer starts and WFE will also grow at an elevated rate.
作為比較,我們認為接下來 10% 到 15% 的晶圓將與物聯網相關,我們認為物聯網晶圓的啟動和 WFE 也將以較高的速度成長。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Got it. That's helpful. And heterogeneous integration is sort of supplemental to that as well, right?
知道了。這很有幫助。異質集成也是一種補充,對嗎?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
That's right.
這是正確的。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
And although it wouldn't be detectable from your results, did you see any pushouts from advanced foundry and logic customers? And also, when you think about the several domestic foundry shells that are either constructed or being constructed and ready to be filled now until, I guess, into next year. What's kind of your current expectations for the timing and significance for some of those expansions?
雖然從結果中無法察覺,但是您是否看到來自先進代工和邏輯客戶的任何推動?而且,當您想到國內幾座鑄造廠的廠房外殼已經建成或正在建造中,準備填滿,我想,現在要到明年了。您目前對於這些擴展的時間和意義有何期待?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Yes. There's still a lot of movement underneath the macro number and our results, there's still a lot of movement underneath as you're suggesting with that question. So we have seen a delay in installation of some of the tools, and we have seen push outs with some of the leading foundry customers. So that's consistent with what we're seeing.
是的。宏觀數字和我們的結果之下仍有許多變動,正如您在該問題中所暗示的那樣,之下仍有許多變動。因此,我們看到一些工具的安裝被延遲,我們看到一些領先的代工客戶出現了延期的情況。這與我們所看到的情況一致。
And then I would just highlight again the strengths in ICAPS and the strength in DRAM, both Q3 and Q4, our outlook is really what's offsetting that.
然後我想再次強調 ICAPS 的優勢和 DRAM 的優勢,無論是第三季度還是第四季度,我們的前景確實抵消了這一點。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Timm Schulze-Melander of Redburn.
我們的下一個問題來自雷德伯恩的蒂姆·舒爾茨·梅蘭德 (Timm Schulze-Melander)。
Timm Nikolaus Schulze-Melander - Head of Tech Hardware Research & Partner
Timm Nikolaus Schulze-Melander - Head of Tech Hardware Research & Partner
I wanted to ask about longer-term R&D intensity. You mentioned about the higher CapEx for the EPIC R&D center and just thinking about the mix of the business, 1/3 of revenues from ICAPS probably intuitively a lower R&D intensity. The other 2/3 leading-edge logic and memory, as you say, more materials-intensive and maybe higher R&D to sales intensity. Just wondering what we should expect the net of those 2 factors to be on a kind of multiyear view, please?
我想問一下長期研發強度的問題。您提到 EPIC 研發中心的資本支出較高,而考慮到業務組合,來自 ICAPS 的收入的 1/3 可能直觀地表明研發強度較低。正如您所說,另外 2/3 是尖端邏輯和內存,材料密集程度更高,研發與銷售強度可能更高。我只是想知道,從多年期角度來看,我們應該對這兩個因素的淨值有何預期?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Yes. Thanks, Timm. Well, our spending at this point is 18.1% of revenue, it's a little bit higher than our model, but we're very comfortable with our spending level. We put about 66% of our spending, 2/3 towards R&D. And we are fully focused on the road map. So when we think about the business, we think about the longer-term trajectory of the business. Our perspective is we're investing in a secular positive trend. We think about semiconductors growing high mid-single digits, so 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%. We think there'll be -- it's becoming more complex to build those semiconductors, which drives more equipment, so that's an additive function.
是的。謝謝,蒂姆。嗯,我們目前的支出佔收入的 18.1%,比我們的模型略高,但我們對我們的支出水平非常滿意。我們將約 66% 的支出(其中 2/3 用於研發)投入研發。我們全心全意關注路線圖。因此,當我們考慮業務時,我們會考慮業務的長期發展軌跡。我們的觀點是,我們投資的是長期的正面趨勢。我們認為半導體的成長率將達到中高個位數,即 6%、7%、8%、9%。我們認為——製造這些半導體會變得越來越複雜,因為它會驅動更多的設備,所以這是一個附加功能。
We also think that Applied, looking forward, designing for the inflections with our customers, we'll gain share on top of that. So we think there's an additive function between the market growth of semis, the more -- the higher complexity of the equipment and then the increased intensity from materials engineering and Applied's participation. So all those things add up to a significant growth rate. And so what I would expect is the spending level you see today will focus on maintaining approximately that spending level as we identify the best R&D projects to work on as we go forward.
我們也認為,展望未來,應用材料公司將與我們的客戶一起設計變革,並在此基礎上獲得市場份額。因此,我們認為半導體市場的成長之間存在著一種附加作用,設備的複雜性越高,材料工程和應用材料公司的參與強度就越大。所有這些因素加起來就形成了一個顯著的成長率。因此,我預計,在我們確定未來最佳研發項目時,今天看到的支出水準將集中維持在該水準左右。
And then I would also highlight that just for investors who are working on their models, we've held our spending flat for pretty much 3 quarters and we said we've been very conscientious and very focused on strategic hires only. As we move to Q1, so the first quarter of our fiscal next year, we'll see our normal pay raise cycle, and we'll see our normal raise of spending in that cycle. So I just wanted to highlight to people that that's what they'll see if they're modeling that function.
然後我還要強調的是,對於那些正在研究模型的投資者來說,我們已經將支出保持在平穩狀態長達 3 個季度,我們說過我們非常認真並且非常專注於策略性招募。隨著我們進入第一季度,也就是明年財年的第一季度,我們將迎來正常的加薪週期,也將迎來該週期內正常的支出成長。所以我只是想向人們強調,如果他們對該功能進行建模,他們就會看到這一點。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Charles Shi of Needham & Company.
我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Charles Shi。
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
Yu Shi - Senior Analyst
I want to ask your largest customer in Taiwan talked about CapEx leveling off on a dollar basis. Wonder what's the impact that you might be seeing in terms of your revenue coming from that particular customer in 2024 and beyond. And any preliminary thoughts on the relative outperformance of WFE maybe in '24 by segment, meaning leading-edge, foundry logic, ICAPS, DRAM and NAND?
我想問一下你們在台灣的最大客戶,他談到了以美元計算的資本支出是否趨於平穩。想知道在 2024 年及以後,來自該特定客戶的收入可能會產生什麼影響。您對 WFE 在 24 年按細分市場的相對優異表現有何初步看法,這意味著前沿、代工邏輯、ICAPS、DRAM 和 NAND?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Okay. Thanks, Charles. All I can say about any particular customer, but especially leading-edge customers is that we're current on their forecast. So we understand at an account level what they're forecasting in the future. They've all started as we went through the supply chain crisis, we're getting better visibility into the road maps top to bottom. So we have that, we have a good perspective on that.
好的。謝謝,查爾斯。對於任何特定客戶,特別是前沿客戶,我能說的是,我們了解他們的預測。因此,我們從帳戶層面了解他們對未來的預測。當我們經歷供應鏈危機時,它們都已經開始了,從上到下我們對路線圖的了解越來越多。所以我們有這個觀點,我們對此有很好的看法。
In general, we haven't called a number for WFE in '24 -- for our business in '24. I just highlighted in the prior question that our view of the long-term growth of the market, sort of what guides our investments, et cetera. What we have said for next year is that we expect the ICAPS business to be stable. So that growth is durable, if you will. It's grown at a high level for the last 2 years, and we expect that business not to fall off, but be stable. We expect our display business to grow modestly, we expect our services business to grow at the low double digits as we've described. And I think that's the color that we've given so far for the market. That leaves out memory and leading logic and we just have to wait until we get closer to give a forecast.
總的來說,我們在 24 年沒有為 WFE 打過電話——對於我們 24 年的業務來說。我在上一個問題中剛剛強調了我們對市場長期成長的看法,以及指導我們投資的因素等等。我們預計明年 ICAPS 業務將會穩定。如果你願意的話,這種成長是持久的。過去兩年來,它一直保持高速成長,我們預計業務不會下滑,而是保持穩定。我們預計我們的展示業務將溫和成長,我們預計我們的服務業務將以我們所描述的低兩位數成長。我認為這就是我們迄今為止賦予市場的色彩。這忽略了記憶和主導邏輯,我們只需要等到更接近時才能給出預測。
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes, Charles, this is Gary. Relative to longer term, as I mentioned earlier, we're in a great position. If you look at this incremental spending for the future technology nodes, a higher percentage of that incremental spending is going to materials-enabled technologies. And as I said, that's a sweet spot for Applied, gate-all-around, backside power, where you get power and performance benefits, but also you're going to get area savings with that inflection. So we have been growing our position from -- for each technology node. I think that gets even better going forward.
是的,查爾斯,這是加里。相對於長期而言,正如我之前提到的,我們處於非常有利的地位。如果你看看未來技術節點的增量支出,你會發現,增量支出中更高比例的支出將用於材料支援技術。正如我所說的,這是應用材料、全閘極、背面電源的最佳結合點,在這裡您可以獲得功率和性能方面的優勢,而且透過這種轉變還可以節省面積。因此,我們一直在針對每個技術節點擴大我們的地位。我認為未來情況會變得更好。
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Yes. Thanks, Charles. And operator, we have time for one more question, please?
是的。謝謝,查爾斯。接線員,我們還有時間再回答一個問題,可以嗎?
Operator
Operator
Our final question, comes from the line of Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.
我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。
Jamal Khan
Jamal Khan
This is Jamal on for Sidney. And I want to ask about gate-all-around, Gary, you've been very clear about how big this opportunity could be, both in terms of revenue and market share. And so maybe can you speak to the revenue contribution from this inflection in '24?
這是賈馬爾 (Jamal) 替換西德尼 (Sidney)。我想問一下環柵技術,Gary,您已經非常清楚這個機會有多大,無論是從收入還是市場份額來看。那麼,您能談談 24 年這種變化帶來的收入貢獻嗎?
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Gary E. Dickerson - President, CEO & Executive Director
Yes. Thanks for the question. I think that we're not going to give a specific dollar amount. But what I would say is that, that inflection is just starting to ramp in the latter part of '24. So it's not going to be a significant driver in '24, but certainly going forward, our opportunity there is significant.
是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為我們不會給出具體的金額。但我想說的是,這種轉變在 2024 年後期才開始顯現。因此,它不會成為24年的重要驅動力,但毫無疑問,展望未來,我們在這方面的機會是巨大的。
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Great. Okay. Thanks for your question. And I'd like to just see if Brice, would you like to give us any closing comments before we close the call?
偉大的。好的。感謝您的提問。我想看看 Brice,在我們結束通話之前,您是否願意給我們一些結束語?
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Brice A. Hill - SVP, CFO & leads Global Information Services
Sure. Thanks, Mike. Just one content note that I wanted to add. So we get a lot of questions about modeling gross margin, and I just want to highlight for the people that are doing their models. Our 47% guide for Q4, that's a little bit higher than what we would have expected with a rich mix in Q4. We're probably running underneath that at a normal mix around 46.6%, 46.7%, somewhere around that. So as people think about modeling their next year, we think we'll continue to make progress from 46.6% or 46.7% to on our way to 48% to 48.5% in '25. So if that helps from a modeling perspective, I just wanted to highlight that.
當然。謝謝,麥克。我只想添加一條內容說明。因此,我們收到很多關於建模毛利率的問題,我只想向那些正在建立模型的人強調。我們對第四季的預期為 47%,比我們對第四季豐富產品組合的預期略高一些。我們的正常混合比例可能低於這個數字,大概在 46.6%、46.7% 左右。因此,當人們考慮明年的建模時,我們認為我們將繼續取得進展,從 46.6% 或 46.7% 上升至 25 年的 48% 至 48.5%。因此,如果這從建模的角度有幫助,我只想強調這一點。
From a closing comments perspective, we're executing well. We're outperforming our markets. The Semi Systems year-to-date revenue is trending up year-over-year. Our services business is on track for year-over-year growth. We're aligned -- we've aligned our businesses with the fastest growing end markets, and we're winning in leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, ICAPS and heterogeneous integration. We're investing for technology leadership and growth. We're generating strong free cash flow and increasing shareholder returns.
從結束語的角度來看,我們的執行情況良好。我們的表現超越了市場。半導體系統年初至今的營收較去年同期呈現上升趨勢。我們的服務業務正實現逐年成長。我們已將我們的業務與成長最快的終端市場保持一致,並在領先的代工邏輯、DRAM、ICAPS 和異質整合領域取得了勝利。我們投資於技術領先地位和成長。我們正在產生強勁的自由現金流並增加股東回報。
I hope to see many of you at the Jefferies Conference in Chicago, and Gary will be keynoting at the Goldman Sachs Conference in San Francisco.
希望能在芝加哥的傑富瑞會議上見到你們,蓋瑞也將在舊金山的高盛會議上發表主題演講。
Now Mike, let's go ahead and close the call.
現在,麥克,我們繼續,結束通話。
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Michael Sullivan - VP of IR
Okay. Great. Thanks Brice. And we'd like to thank everybody for joining us today. A replay of the call is going to be available on the IR page of our website by 5:00 Pacific Time today, and we'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.
好的。偉大的。謝謝布萊斯。我們感謝大家今天的參與。該電話會議的重播將於今天太平洋時間 5:00 之前在我們網站的 IR 頁面上提供,我們感謝您對應用程式資料的持續關注。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。