應用材料 (AMAT) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加應用材料公司的收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Corporate Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給公司副總裁 Michael Sullivan。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Applied's First Quarter of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Brice Hill, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，感謝您參加應用材料公司 2023 財年第一季度的收益電話會議。加入我的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官加里·迪克森 (Gary Dickerson)；和我們的首席財務官 Brice Hill。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ. Information concerning the risks and uncertainties is contained in Applied's most recent Form 10-K filing with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同。有關風險和不確定性的信息包含在 Applied 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格中。

Today's call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are found in today's earnings press release and in our quarterly earnings materials, which are available on the IR page of our website at appliedmaterials.com. Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. Later this month, Applied Materials is participating in the SPIE Advanced Lithography and Patterning Conference. For those who aren't traveling to San Jose for the conference, we plan to hold a new product launch event on our IR website on Tuesday, February 28, at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. We hope you'll join us.

今天的電話會議還包括非 GAAP 財務指標。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們的季度收益材料中可以找到與 GAAP 措施的調節，這些材料可在我們網站 appliedmaterials.com 的 IR 頁面上找到。在我們開始之前，我有一個日曆公告。本月晚些時候，應用材料公司將參加 SPIE 高級光刻和圖形會議。對於那些沒有前往聖何塞參加會議的人，我們計劃於太平洋時間 2 月 28 日星期二上午 9 點在我們的 IR 網站上舉行新產品發布會。我們希望你能加入我們。

And with that introduction, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

有了這個介紹，我想把電話轉給加里迪克森。

Thank you, Mike. Applied Materials executed well in our first fiscal quarter, delivering results towards the high end of our guidance range. We also grew our backlog for the ninth consecutive quarter. Going forward, we expect backlog to start declining as we move through 2023.

謝謝你，邁克。 Applied Materials 在我們的第一個財政季度表現良好，實現了我們指導範圍的高端。我們還連續第九個季度增加了積壓訂單。展望未來，我們預計隨著 2023 年的到來，積壓訂單將開始減少。

Overall, we are making good progress closing our supply versus demand gap. However, very recently, one of our major suppliers encountered a disruption that will impact our second quarter shipments. Brice will provide more details about this when he shares our guidance.

總體而言，我們在縮小供需差距方面取得了良好進展。然而，最近，我們的一個主要供應商遇到了中斷，這將影響我們第二季度的出貨量。 Brice 將在分享我們的指南時提供更多詳細信息。

In my prepared remarks, I will cover 3 main topics: our current outlook for 2023; our longer-term growth thesis for the industry and how Applied is positioned to grow faster than our markets overall; and finally, a brief overview of the investments we are making to productively scale the company and accelerate our customers' road maps.

在我準備好的發言中，我將涵蓋 3 個主要主題：我們目前對 2023 年的展望；我們對該行業的長期增長論點，以及 Applied 如何能夠比我們的市場整體增長得更快；最後，簡要概述我們為有效擴大公司規模和加快客戶路線圖而進行的投資。

Let me begin with our near-term perspective on the market. In this environment of mixed macroeconomic signals, our customers are facing a variety of demand dynamics. Consumer-driven markets, including PCs and smartphones are clearly weaker while inflection-driven markets remain more resilient, especially high-performance computing and AI, automotive, industrial automation and clean energy.

讓我從我們對市場的近期觀點開始。在這種宏觀經濟信號混雜的環境中，我們的客戶面臨著各種需求動態。包括個人電腦和智能手機在內的消費者驅動市場明顯走弱，而拐點驅動市場仍然更具彈性，尤其是高性能計算和人工智能、汽車、工業自動化和清潔能源。

In terms of wafer fab equipment investments, 2023 will be a down year for memory spending as customers rebalance inventories and defer capacity additions in both NAND and DRAM. We expect DRAM to pick up ahead of NAND, potentially beginning to recover later this calendar year. We now see leading-edge foundry logic spending being slightly down year-on-year. While near-term demand headwinds are causing customers to trim capacity additions, they remain firmly committed to strategic investments in advanced nodes to win the battle for next-generation technology leadership.

就晶圓廠設備投資而言，由於客戶重新平衡庫存並推遲 NAND 和 DRAM 的產能增加，2023 年將是內存支出下降的一年。我們預計 DRAM 將在 NAND 之前回升，並有可能在本日曆年晚些時候開始復蘇。我們現在看到領先的代工邏輯支出同比略有下降。儘管近期需求逆風導致客戶削減產能增加，但他們仍然堅定地致力於對先進節點進行戰略投資，以贏得下一代技術領導地位的爭奪戰。

Our view of ICAPS, chips for IoT, communications, auto, power and sensor applications is incrementally more positive than it was last quarter, and we now see spending being up year-on-year. Leading ICAPS companies are investing in both technology and capacity to serve growing demand across a wide range of verticals. In addition, there is strong government support around the world to build resilient, regionalized ICAPS supply.

我們對 ICAPS、物聯網芯片、通信、汽車、電力和傳感器應用的看法比上一季度更加積極，我們現在看到支出同比增長。領先的 ICAPS 公司正在投資於技術和能力，以滿足廣泛垂直領域不斷增長的需求。此外，世界各地的政府都大力支持建立有彈性的區域化 ICAPS 供應。

Based on what we're seeing in our business and hearing from our customers, we believe Applied Materials is well positioned to outperform the market in 2023. The resilience in our business is driven by several contributing factors. First, our balanced market exposure, which allows us to perform well in a variety of spending mix environments. Second, our position with technology leaders who remain focused on investing in their long-term strategies. We have strong positions at all the key technology inflections in advanced foundry logic, ICAPS, DRAM and advanced packaging.

根據我們在業務中看到的情況和客戶的反饋，我們相信應用材料公司有能力在 2023 年超越市場。我們業務的彈性是由幾個因素驅動的。首先，我們平衡的市場敞口，使我們能夠在各種支出組合環境中表現良好。其次，我們與技術領導者的立場，他們仍然專注於投資於他們的長期戰略。我們在先進代工邏輯、ICAPS、DRAM 和先進封裝的所有關鍵技術轉變方面都擁有強大的地位。

Third, our record backlog of which a significant percentage is made up of our most differentiated products, including metal deposition that is uniquely enabling for critical next-generation wiring resistance improvements. And finally, our services business, which is on track to grow in 2023, even after the impact of current U.S. export control regulations. More than 60% of our service revenue is generated from subscriptions in the form of long-term agreements. These agreements have an average tenure of 2.6 years and a high renewal rate of more than 90%.

第三，我們創紀錄的積壓訂單，其中很大一部分是由我們最具差異化的產品組成的，包括金屬沉積，它可以獨特地實現關鍵的下一代佈線電阻改進。最後，我們的服務業務有望在 2023 年實現增長，即使在當前美國出口管制法規的影響之後也是如此。我們超過 60% 的服務收入來自長期協議形式的訂閱。這些協議的平均期限為2.6年，續簽率高達90%以上。

While we are cognizant of near-term volatility in our markets and ready to respond to both upside or downside, our long-term outlook remains highly positive. Semiconductors are the foundation of the digital economy, making them more strategically and economically important than ever before. Around the world, governments are incentivizing the industry to build regional manufacturing capacity and accelerate investments in strategic next-generation technologies. The semiconductor industry remains on track to grow from approximately $600 billion in 2022 to $1 trillion or more by the end of this decade.

雖然我們意識到我們市場的短期波動並準備好應對上行或下行，但我們的長期前景仍然非常樂觀。半導體是數字經濟的基礎，使其在戰略和經濟上比以往任何時候都更加重要。在世界各地，政府正在激勵該行業建立區域製造能力並加速對下一代戰略技術的投資。到本十年末，半導體行業仍有望從 2022 年的約 6000 億美元增長到 1 萬億美元或更多。

Technology complexity of chips is increasing significantly as traditional 2D Moore's Law scaling slows and the industry transitions to a new PPACt playbook to drive improved performance, power, area cost and time to market. In addition, as 2D Moore's Law decelerates, we are seeing average die sizes in advanced foundry logic grow. This drives the need for additional wafer capacity while also accelerating the transition to chiplets and heterogeneous designs.

隨著傳統的 2D 摩爾定律縮放速度放緩，以及行業過渡到新的 PPACt 劇本以推動改進的性能、功耗、面積成本和上市時間，芯片的技術複雜性正在顯著增加。此外，隨著 2D 摩爾定律減速，我們看到高級代工邏輯中的平均裸片尺寸在增長。這推動了對額外晶圓產能的需求，同時也加速了向小芯片和異構設計的過渡。

Beyond advanced packaging, major technology inflections in transistor, wiring and patterning are also enabled by new materials and materials engineering. These inflections increase the size of Applied's available market. As we have been investing in these inflections for multiple years, we are now well positioned to capture a larger share of our available market. We have a deep pipeline of solutions to enable new wiring innovations, gate-all-around transistors, backside power delivery, heterogeneous integration and hybrid bonding. Our broad portfolio of products enables us to offer customers traditional unit process equipment, all the way to integrated material solutions or IMS that combine multiple process technologies with onboard metrology and advanced data analytics in a single platform.

除了先進封裝之外，新材料和材料工程也促成了晶體管、佈線和圖案化方面的重大技術轉變。這些變化擴大了 Applied 的可用市場規模。由於多年來我們一直在投資於這些變化，我們現在已經準備好在我們的可用市場中佔據更大的份額。我們擁有豐富的解決方案管道，可實現新的佈線創新、環柵晶體管、背面供電、異構集成和混合鍵合。我們廣泛的產品組合使我們能夠為客戶提供傳統的單元工藝設備，一直到集成材料解決方案或 IMS，將多種工藝技術與機載計量和高級數據分析結合在一個平台上。

We are very confident about the growth trajectory of the industry and Applied's outperformance within that environment. To support this growth, we are making strategic investments in new manufacturing, logistics and R&D infrastructure. The scale, speed and location of these investments will be dependent on receiving government support, some of which we have already secured.

我們對該行業的增長軌跡以及 Applied 在該環境下的出色表現充滿信心。為了支持這種增長，我們正在對新的製造、物流和研發基礎設施進行戰略投資。這些投資的規模、速度和位置將取決於獲得政府支持，我們已經獲得了其中一些支持。

Beyond simply expanding capacity, we see these infrastructure investments as a catalyst to change the way we collaborate with customers, suppliers and research partners. For example, in the coming months, we expect to break ground on our next-generation R&D center in Silicon Valley. We believe this new high velocity platform will increase innovation and commercialization speed while reducing the overall cost of bringing new manufacturing technologies to market. As the industry and Applied Materials scale, we need to do so productively and efficiently. This is a major strategic theme for us, and across the company, we are focused on driving up productivity and implementing new ways to work that are better and faster.

除了簡單地擴大產能，我們還將這些基礎設施投資視為改變我們與客戶、供應商和研究合作夥伴合作方式的催化劑。例如，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計在矽谷的下一代研發中心破土動工。我們相信這個新的高速平台將提高創新和商業化速度，同時降低將新製造技術推向市場的總體成本。隨著行業和 Applied Materials 規模的擴大，我們需要高效地做到這一點。這是我們的一個主要戰略主題，在整個公司，我們專注於提高生產力和實施更好更快的新工作方式。

Before I hand the call over to Brice, let me summarize. While the economy in semiconductor industry are facing challenges in 2023, we remain confident that Applied is well positioned to outperform our markets this year. Our resilience is underpinned by our large backlog of differentiated products, growing service business and strong positions with leading customers at key technology inflections. Our longer-term outlook remains highly positive as secular trends create opportunities for Applied to outgrow the semiconductor and wafer fab equipment markets by enabling the PPACt road map with our differentiated portfolio of materials engineering solutions. In line with this view, we are making strategic investments in R&D and infrastructure while driving improvements in productivity and speed across the organization. Now Brice, it's over to you.

在我將電話轉交給 Brice 之前，讓我總結一下。儘管半導體行業的經濟在 2023 年面臨挑戰，但我們仍然相信 Applied 有能力在今年超越我們的市場。我們的彈性得益於我們大量積壓的差異化產品、不斷增長的服務業務以及在關鍵技術轉折點與領先客戶的強勢地位。我們的長期前景仍然非常樂觀，因為長期趨勢為 Applied 創造了機會，通過我們差異化的材料工程解決方案組合實現 PPACt 路線圖，從而超越半導體和晶圓廠設備市場。根據這一觀點，我們正在對研發和基礎設施進行戰略投資，同時推動提高整個組織的生產力和速度。現在，Brice，輪到你了。

Thank you, Gary. I'd like to start by thanking our team and our supply chain partners for helping us deliver strong revenue in a dynamic environment. On today's call, I'll summarize our Q1 results and provide our guidance for Q2.

謝謝你，加里。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊和我們的供應鏈合作夥伴幫助我們在動態環境中實現可觀的收入。在今天的電話會議上，我將總結我們第一季度的結果並為第二季度提供指導。

Before going into the near term, I'd like to discuss the broader context for the industry and the company. Over the past few cycles, the semiconductor industry has become significantly larger and more diverse. Applied's revenue and earnings have grown and become more resilient over this period. In semiconductor systems, more than half our revenue comes from leadership businesses where our market segment share is near or well above 50%. The growth of our services business has added another dimension of stability. These factors strengthen our confidence in our ability to invest, generate high returns and return capital to shareholders. Our business model is very efficient and generates attractive returns. In fact, from fiscal 2013 through 2022, we have grown Applied's free cash flow at a compound annual rate of 30%, and increased our return on invested capital to over 35%.

在進入近期之前，我想討論一下行業和公司的更廣泛背景。在過去的幾個週期中，半導體行業變得更大、更多樣化。在此期間，Applied 的收入和收益有所增長並變得更有彈性。在半導體系統中，我們一半以上的收入來自市場份額接近或遠高於 50% 的領先業務。我們服務業務的增長增加了穩定性的另一個方面。這些因素增強了我們對投資、產生高回報和向股東返還資本的能力的信心。我們的商業模式非常高效，並產生可觀的回報。事實上，從 2013 財年到 2022 財年，我們已經以 30% 的複合年增長率增加了 Applied 的自由現金流，並將我們的投資資本回報率提高到 35% 以上。

We have 3 capital allocation priorities. The first is funding future growth and returns. And the second is maintaining a strong balance sheet so we can fund R&D through market cycles. Accordingly, even though the semiconductor market is weaker this year, we are investing to scale the company to support our customers in what we believe will be a $1 trillion semiconductor market. We are increasing our manufacturing and logistics capacity and we are making significant investments in our R&D infrastructure to collaborate more closely and productively with our customers and industry partners to help solve their highest-value problems.

我們有 3 個資本配置優先事項。首先是為未來的增長和回報提供資金。第二個是保持強大的資產負債表，這樣我們就可以通過市場週期為研發提供資金。因此，儘管今年半導體市場疲軟，但我們正在投資擴大公司規模，以支持我們的客戶進入我們認為將達到 1 萬億美元的半導體市場。我們正在提高我們的製造和物流能力，我們正在對我們的研發基礎設施進行大量投資，以便與我們的客戶和行業合作夥伴更緊密、更高效地合作，幫助解決他們最有價值的問題。

Our third capital allocation priority is returning excess cash to shareholders. We have committed to return 80% to 100% of free cash flow and actual returns for the past 10 years have been 106%. We have repurchased 40% of shares outstanding at the beginning of this period. As the business has become larger and more diverse, we've also increased the dividend. We've increased our quarterly dividend per share at a 14% CAGR over the past 17 years. In fact, operating income from our services business alone more than covers a growing dividend.

我們的第三個資本配置優先事項是向股東返還多餘現金。我們承諾回報 80% 到 100% 的自由現金流，過去 10 年的實際回報率為 106%。我們回購了本期初 40% 的已發行股票。隨著業務變得越來越大和越來越多樣化，我們也增加了股息。在過去 17 年中，我們以 14% 的複合年增長率增加了每股季度股息。事實上，僅來自我們服務業務的營業收入就足以支付不斷增長的股息。

Finally, I want our investors to know that we are increasingly focused on improving our productivity. We increased our full-time employee base by around 20% last year, and have restricted hiring to critical positions and slowed our spending growth. R&D is our largest expense, and we are making portfolio decisions to ensure we generate the highest possible returns from our investments. We also see opportunities to make our manufacturing more predictable and efficient and have formed new teams to drive our operational goals.

最後，我希望我們的投資者知道，我們越來越注重提高生產力。去年，我們的全職員工人數增加了約 20%，並且限制了對關鍵職位的招聘，並減緩了我們的支出增長。研發是我們最大的支出，我們正在製定投資組合決策，以確保我們從投資中獲得盡可能高的回報。我們還看到了使我們的製造更具可預測性和效率的機會，並組建了新的團隊來推動我們的運營目標。

Moving now to our Q1 financials. We delivered net sales of nearly $6.74 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.03. These results were in the upper end of our guidance range and nearly identical to last quarter's record results. Non-GAAP gross margin increased 80 basis points sequentially to 46.8%, primarily driven by improved manufacturing and logistics costs, along with pricing adjustments. Non-GAAP OpEx was nearly $1.17 billion, with about 2/3 of the sequential increase from R&D.

現在轉到我們的第一季度財務數據。我們實現了近 67.4 億美元的淨銷售額和 2.03 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益。這些結果處於我們指導範圍的上限，與上一季度創紀錄的結果幾乎相同。非 GAAP 毛利率環比增長 80 個基點至 46.8%，主要受製造和物流成本改善以及定價調整的推動。非 GAAP 運營支出接近 11.7 億美元，其中約 2/3 的環比增長來自研發。

Turning to the segments. Semi Systems revenue grew by 13% year-over-year to $5.16 billion. Strength in ICAPS more than offset reductions in memory and advanced foundry logic. Segment non-GAAP operating margin was 37.3%. AGS revenue grew nearly 4% year-over-year in Q1 to approximately $1.37 billion. AGS absorbed a full quarter of revenue impact from U.S. trade regulations and performed better than the midpoint of our expectations. Segment non-GAAP operating margin was 28%. In display, revenue declined to $167 million, and segment non-GAAP operating margin was 4.8%.

轉向細分市場。 Semi Systems 收入同比增長 13% 至 51.6 億美元。 ICAPS 的優勢不僅僅抵消內存和高級代工邏輯的減少。部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 37.3%。第一季度 AGS 收入同比增長近 4%，達到約 13.7 億美元。 AGS 吸收了美國貿易法規對收入的整整四分之一的影響，表現好於我們預期的中點。部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 28%。顯示，收入下降至 1.67 億美元，部門非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 4.8%。

Turning to our cash flows. We generated $2.27 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter, which is 34% of revenue. We returned $470 million to shareholders, including $220 million in dividends and $250 million in buybacks.

轉向我們的現金流。本季度我們產生了 22.7 億美元的運營現金流，佔收入的 34%。我們向股東返還了 4.7 億美元，其中包括 2.2 億美元的股息和 2.5 億美元的回購。

Now I'll share our guidance for Q2. We expect revenue to be nearly $6.4 billion, plus or minus $400 million or up over 2% year-over-year. We expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.84, plus or minus $0.18. This guidance includes a negative estimated adjustment of $250 million related to a cybersecurity event that was recently announced by one of our suppliers. Based on our current assessment of the situation, we expect to recover all of this revenue and the majority of it in Q3.

現在我將分享我們對第二季度的指導。我們預計收入將接近 64 億美元，上下浮動 4 億美元，同比增長超過 2%。我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.84 美元，上下浮動 0.18 美元。該指南包括與我們的一家供應商最近宣布的網絡安全事件相關的 2.5 億美元的負估計調整。根據我們目前對情況的評估，我們預計將在第三季度收回所有這些收入和大部分收入。

We expect Semi Systems revenue to be about $4.84 billion, which is up over 8% year-over-year. We expect AGS revenue to be about $1.34 billion, which is down around 3% year-over-year, including the negative impact of recent U.S. trade regulations. Display revenue should be around $160 million. We expect Applied's non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 46.5%, which is lower quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by lower volumes and higher near-term supply chain logistics costs. And we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be around $1.16 billion. We are modeling a tax rate of 12.5% and a weighted average share count of 850 million.

我們預計 Semi Systems 的收入約為 48.4 億美元，同比增長超過 8%。我們預計 AGS 收入約為 13.4 億美元，同比下降約 3%，其中包括近期美國貿易法規的負面影響。顯示器收入應該在 1.6 億美元左右。我們預計 Applied 的非 GAAP 毛利率約為 46.5%，環比下降，這主要是由於銷量下降和近期供應鏈物流成本上升所致。我們預計非 GAAP 運營費用約為 11.6 億美元。我們建模的稅率為 12.5%，加權平均股數為 8.5 億股。

I'll close my remarks today by saying thank you to our long-term investors for your support. We are investing for the future with confidence. Our products and services are being directed to a semiconductor industry that is growing in size and strategic importance to the global economy. Our business model is highly efficient with low capital intensity and a high return on invested capital, driven primarily by R&D spending deployed in close collaboration with our customers. Our business has become less volatile and more resilient as semiconductor demand has broadened to more markets. Equipment capital intensity has recovered and our services business has grown larger and more subscription based. In fact, over the past 5 fiscal years, we've increased non-GAAP net income by 87%, generated $18.7 billion in free cash flow and returned 118% of free cash flow to investors.

我要結束今天的發言，感謝我們的長期投資者的支持。我們滿懷信心地為未來投資。我們的產品和服務面向規模不斷擴大、對全球經濟具有戰略重要性的半導體行業。我們的業務模式效率高，資本密集度低，投資資本回報率高，主要由與客戶密切合作部署的研發支出推動。隨著半導體需求擴大到更多市場，我們的業務變得不那麼不穩定且更具彈性。設備資本密集度已經恢復，我們的服務業務變得越來越大，並且更加基於訂閱。事實上，在過去的 5 個財政年度中，我們將非 GAAP 淨收入增加了 87%，產生了 187 億美元的自由現金流，並將 118% 的自由現金流返還給了投資者。

Looking forward, we believe the growing complexity of the semiconductor road map and our ability to deliver the innovations required by our customers will enable us to grow faster than the industry. We plan to expand our global R&D and manufacturing infrastructure, including the plans Gary previewed. Finally, we will focus on increasing our productivity and maintaining our efficient spending model. Now Mike, let's please begin the Q&A.

展望未來，我們相信半導體路線圖的日益複雜以及我們提供客戶所需創新的能力將使我們能夠比行業更快地發展。我們計劃擴大我們的全球研發和製造基礎設施，包括 Gary 預覽的計劃。最後，我們將專注於提高我們的生產力和維持我們有效的支出模式。現在邁克，讓我們開始問答環節。

Thanks, Brice. To help us reach as many people as we can, please ask just 1 question on today's call. If you have another question, please requeue and we'll do our best to come back to you later in the session. Operator, let's please begin.

謝謝，布萊斯。為了幫助我們接觸到盡可能多的人，請在今天的電話會議上只問 1 個問題。如果您有其他問題，請重新排隊，我們將盡最大努力在會議後期回复您。接線員，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question coming from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 與 Evercore ISI 的合作。

I guess was hoping to get a little more color on the backlog side of things. To what degree do you think dollar-wise that will kind of contribute to you here in calendar '23? And as part of that, I guess, how are you thinking about kind of first half versus second half, whether on a fiscal or calendar year basis, kind of silicon trends as that backlog unwinds?

我想是希望在積壓的事情上得到更多的顏色。您認為美元在多大程度上會在 23 年的日曆中為您做出貢獻？作為其中的一部分，我想，你是如何考慮上半年和下半年的，無論是在財政年度還是日曆年的基礎上，隨著積壓的解除，矽的趨勢是什麼？

Okay. Great. And thanks for the question. So on our backlog, just step back, we did see a lot of activity with movement in orders during the quarter. As we've described before, we go through our orders each quarter, work with the customers to update them. And there was a lot of movement. We do see the weakness in the market that everybody else sees in the leading edge logic and in memory. But as Gary pointed out, we did have strong bookings in the quarter and our backlog actually grew.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問。因此，在我們的積壓訂單上，退後一步，我們確實看到本季度有很多訂單變動的活動。正如我們之前所描述的，我們每個季度都會檢查我們的訂單，與客戶一起更新它們。並且有很多動作。我們確實看到了其他人在前沿邏輯和記憶中看到的市場弱點。但正如 Gary 指出的那樣，我們在本季度確實有大量預訂，而且我們的積壓訂單實際上有所增加。

We think that more than half of that backlog will be executed this year. And as Gary also pointed out, we expect that we'll begin to work that down toward a more normal level as we start to improve supply chain and be able to shift the demand that we're still shipping from last year, really, we're still working in some of our business units to cover the demand that we had last year. So it has been a little bit of a buffer, the strong backlog against the weakness in the market for us, and we think it's going to take the rest of the year, probably 1 to 4 quarters, depending on the business unit, we're thinking about to work through to normalize the lead times and recover the backlog that we need to ship against.

我們認為今年將執行超過一半的積壓工作。正如加里還指出的那樣，我們希望隨著我們開始改善供應鏈並能夠轉移我們仍在從去年開始發貨的需求，我們將開始朝著更正常的水平努力，真的，我們'仍在我們的一些業務部門工作，以滿足我們去年的需求。所以它有點緩衝，對我們來說，大量積壓對市場疲軟的影響，我們認為這將在今年餘下的時間裡進行，可能需要 1 到 4 個季度，具體取決於業務部門，我們'我們正在考慮努力使交貨時間正常化並恢復我們需要發貨的積壓工作。

Yes. C.J., one other thing I would add is that the largest part of our backlog is with our leadership products, especially MDP and implants. So again, that gives us strength as we go forward.

是的。 C.J.，我要補充的另一件事是，我們積壓的最大部分是我們的領先產品，尤其是 MDP 和植入物。因此，這再次給了我們前進的力量。

Yes. And C.J., we're not giving the guidance for the second half, but we'll just say that as I highlighted, more than half of that backlog is in the year, so it's definitely helping the year. It is buffering us Q1, Q2. And it does give us confidence that we had strong bookings in the quarter. And we'll probably talk more about this, but we'll highlight that the ICAPS markets are very strong. In fact, demand has been accelerating in those markets.

是的。 C.J.，我們沒有給出下半年的指導，但我們只是說，正如我強調的那樣，今年有一半以上的積壓工作，所以這肯定對今年有所幫助。它緩沖我們 Q1，Q2。它確實讓我們相信我們在本季度的預訂量很大。我們可能會對此進行更多討論，但我們會強調 ICAPS 市場非常強勁。事實上，這些市場的需求一直在加速增長。

And our next question coming from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon 與 Bernstein 的對話。

I actually wanted to dig a little bit into that strong ICAPS demand. Is it coming from -- I mean, is it focused in areas like China where at this point after the restrictions they're going to be forced to take a much harder look at their efforts in trailing node versus a leading node. And I guess as an add-on to that, are you concerned at all about the strength in ICAPS. Is there any concern about overbuild, I guess, as we go through the year, as that gets build out?

我實際上想深入了解一下 ICAPS 的強勁需求。它是否來自——我的意思是，它是否集中在像中國這樣的地區，在這一點上，在限制之後，他們將被迫更加嚴格地審視他們在尾隨節點和領先節點方面的努力。我想作為一個補充，你是否關心 ICAPS 的實力？我想，在我們度過這一年的過程中，是否存在過度建設的擔憂？

Stacy thanks for the question. First of all, it's broad-based. I guess, would be my first answer on the ICAPS. We had significant growth last year that we highlighted when we did our year-end call, and it's actually accelerating into this year. So I'll come back to whether that's a concern or not. China is the largest region and the largest single country driving ICAPS. So it is a focus area. We're actually not concerned that it's going to be affected by trade regulations.

史黛西謝謝你的提問。首先，它的基礎廣泛。我想，這將是我對 ICAPS 的第一個答案。去年我們在進行年終電話會議時強調了這一點，我們在去年取得了顯著增長，並且實際上在今年加速增長。所以我會回來討論這是否是一個問題。中國是推動 ICAPS 的最大地區和最大單一國家。所以這是一個重點領域。我們實際上並不擔心它會受到貿易法規的影響。

So that's not on the radar screen at this point. As we think about ICAPS and we think about that broad-based strength, you're probably aware or certainly aware that many of the companies that we know are leading ICAPS manufacturers have announced that they're adding capacity and the capital intensity for those companies is increasing. And I think it just is a reflection of there's little used factories and used equipment available in the market.

所以此時這不在雷達屏幕上。當我們考慮 ICAPS 並考慮廣泛的實力時，您可能知道或肯定知道許多我們知道的領先 ICAPS 製造商的公司已經宣布他們正在為這些公司增加產能和資本密集度在增加。我認為這只是市場上幾乎沒有二手工廠和二手設備的反映。

And so as companies need to add capacity to serve this market, they're having to make the new investments. We do think it's sustainable. We do think it's being driven by, in some cases, are being supported in some cases by government incentives. But we're not concerned that companies will put capital in place that they don't plan to use. We don't think the incentives are enough to have somebody install equipment and not use it just in the hopes of using it. So we're also fairly confident in the underlying demand, things like electrification, electric vehicles, sustainable power. All these types of markets, we think, are sustainable. So we just -- we're seeing an acceleration in that area for our business, and we think it will continue.

因此，由於公司需要增加服務這個市場的能力，他們不得不進行新的投資。我們確實認為它是可持續的。我們確實認為它在某些情況下受到政府激勵措施的推動，在某些情況下得到政府激勵措施的支持。但我們並不擔心公司會將他們不打算使用的資金投入到位。我們認為激勵措施不足以讓某些人安裝設備而不只是為了使用它而使用它。因此，我們對潛在需求也相當有信心，比如電氣化、電動汽車、可持續能源等。我們認為，所有這些類型的市場都是可持續的。所以我們只是 - 我們看到我們業務在該領域的加速發展，我們認為它會繼續下去。

Stacy, the one thing I would add too is if you remember, several years ago, you had a lot of used equipment as the foundry business model was emerging. So that really depressed capital intensity for a number of years. And of course, that's not happening now. So capital intensity is up, and our position there is very good.

Stacy，我還要補充的一件事是，如果你還記得的話，幾年前，隨著代工商業模式的興起，你有很多二手設備。因此，多年來確實降低了資本密集度。當然，現在不會發生這種情況。所以資本密集度上升了，我們在那裡的地位非常好。

And our next question coming from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I'm curious, does your Q2 outlook kind of reflect the trough of memory demand? Or you think there is a lot more memory weakness that you could see in the second half? Because is just that when I look at your outlook, right, it seems to be very different than what we have seen from your other U.S. peers who are down 20%, 30% sequentially in their calendar Q1. And I don't know if it's just the ICAPS strength that explains that delta on just puzzled as to what explains that outperformance? Is it ICAPS, or is it something else? Or have you not yet seen the trough of memory weakness and that is still to come that maybe they saw it earlier, and you could see more of it in the back half.

我很好奇，您對第二季度的展望是否反映了內存需求的低谷？或者你認為在下半場你會看到更多的記憶力弱點？因為只是當我看你的前景時，對，這似乎與我們從你的其他美國同行那裡看到的情況非常不同，他們在第一季度的日曆中連續下降了 20%、30%。而且我不知道是否只是 ICAPS 強度可以解釋該增量，只是對解釋該出色表現的原因感到困惑？是 ICAPS，還是其他東西？還是您還沒有看到記憶力減退的低谷，而那還在後頭，也許他們更早地看到了，並且您可以在後半部分看到更多。

Thanks for the question, Vivek. We're fairly confident that we're current with our memory customers on their orders. We've definitely seen -- as I highlighted in our booking activity, we definitely have seen significant cancellations and pushouts from memory customers. We think we're current. Mathematically, you're exactly right. The acceleration in ICAPS has more than offset the weakness we're seeing there and any slowdown we saw in leading-edge logic. So that's true. And then we've looked at the leading indicators on the memory side. We're still seeing pricing declines. We're still seeing inventory increases. So we don't think it's turning yet, at least from our perspective, but we're confident we're current with the customers, Vivek.

謝謝你的問題，Vivek。我們相當有信心，我們的內存客戶正在接受他們的訂單。我們肯定已經看到——正如我在預訂活動中強調的那樣，我們肯定已經看到內存客戶的大量取消和推出。我們認為我們是最新的。從數學上講，你是完全正確的。 ICAPS 的加速已經抵消了我們在那裡看到的弱點以及我們在前沿邏輯中看到的任何放緩。所以這是真的。然後我們查看了內存方面的領先指標。我們仍然看到價格下降。我們仍然看到庫存增加。所以我們認為它還沒有轉變，至少從我們的角度來看是這樣，但我們相信我們與客戶是最新的，Vivek。

And our next question coming from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen 的對話。

Brice, maybe just for one for you. I notice you did not quantify WFE for this year, and I understand you're probably better at than the industry because of the ICAPS strength. But it seems like the range is anywhere from 70 to 75 and some people talk about $80 billion in WFE this year. But just hypothetically speaking, if WFE is down 20 or so more percent since you're going to outperform, is it fair to assume your revenue growth to be down more like low to mid-teens? And kind of how to think about the earnings power in that scenario given that you're trying to be disciplined on OpEx?

布萊斯，也許只適合你一個。我注意到你沒有量化今年的 WFE，而且我知道你可能比行業更擅長 ICAPS 實力。但似乎範圍在 70 到 75 之間，有些人說今年 WFE 的價值為 800 億美元。但只是假設地說，如果 WFE 下降了 20 個百分點或更多，因為你會跑贏大盤，那麼假設你的收入增長下降得更像是低至中十幾歲是否公平？考慮到您正試圖在 OpEx 上受到紀律處分，如何考慮這種情況下的盈利能力？

Okay, thanks Krish. So yes, we didn't provide a WFE because we're really just trying to focus on sharing what we're seeing, all the signals that we're getting in the market because were a little bit abstracted from it. As you pointed out, we've got the strength and acceleration in ICAPS that may make us a little bit different. We're also still shipping orders we had from '22. So for us, we're catching up to demand, especially in some of the key differentiated business units that existed before the year. So it's not a perfect match, and it's difficult for us to estimate.

好的，謝謝克里什。所以是的，我們沒有提供 WFE，因為我們真的只是想專注於分享我們所看到的，我們在市場上獲得的所有信號，因為我們從中提取了一些信息。正如您所指出的，我們在 ICAPS 中擁有實力和加速能力，這可能會讓我們有所不同。我們還在運送 22 年的訂單。因此，對我們來說，我們正在迎頭趕上需求，尤其是在去年之前存在的一些關鍵差異化業務部門。所以這不是一個完美的匹配，我們很難估計。

Switching to OpEx. As we talked about in our last call, because we were supply constrained, our OpEx growth, that was our plan was a little bit ahead of our revenue growth. So we have implemented headcount targets. We've moved to strategic hiring only, and we do have initiatives focused on improving our productivity on spending. So we're conscious of that. Of course, it's a balancing act, Krish, through this year because we think the industry is growing. We're confident in the direction we need to continue investing in R&D. So that's our primary goal is to deliver those programs to customers. We have flexibility if the environment deteriorates for us, then we'll make more appropriate changes to spending. But right now, we're comfortable with the trajectory.

轉向運營支出。正如我們在上次電話會議中談到的那樣，由於我們受到供應限制，我們的運營支出增長，即我們的計劃略高於我們的收入增長。所以我們已經實施了員工人數目標。我們已經轉向僅戰略性招聘，我們確實有一些舉措側重於提高我們的支出生產力。所以我們意識到這一點。當然，這是一個平衡的行為，Krish，今年是因為我們認為這個行業正在增長。我們對繼續投資研發的方向充滿信心。因此，我們的主要目標是將這些程序交付給客戶。如果環境惡化，我們有靈活性，然後我們將對支出做出更適當的改變。但現在，我們對軌跡感到滿意。

Next question coming from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Nice job in the execution. Surprise, it does sound like ICAPS is the driver for your outperformance at least in the near term versus the peers. And historically, in your Master Classes, you have talked about ICAPs being around 25% of your silicon portfolio. And I'm curious where do you think you're running this business at right now? And if you could comment on within ICAPS is auto or silicon carbide, the strongest area for you.

在執行中做得很好。令人驚訝的是，聽起來 ICAPS 確實是您至少在短期內表現優於同行的驅動因素。從歷史上看，在您的大師班中，您曾談到 ICAP 約佔您矽產品組合的 25%。我很好奇你認為你現在在哪裡經營這項業務？如果您可以在 ICAPS 中評論汽車或碳化矽，這對您來說是最強的領域。

Okay. Thanks, Atif. I think that we've characterized foundry logic as 2/3 of the business last year. Memory is a little slower this year, so that mix is changing a little bit. And we characterized our lagging edge or the ICAPS portion does about 50-50 with leading edge. So that's the way we characterize it. And that's all thinking of it from a TAM perspective. What we are seeing at the company level is that the ICAPS market is accelerating and growing at a very high rate for the company this year. And we think part of that is driven by government incentives and part of that is driven by the higher intensity and part of that is driven by the strength in the end markets that I highlighted. And maybe, Gary, on the silicon carbide, you could make a comment.

好的。謝謝，阿提夫。我認為去年我們將代工邏輯描述為業務的 2/3。今年記憶有點慢，所以混合有點變化。我們將我們的落後優勢或 ICAPS 部分描述為具有領先優勢的大約 50-50。這就是我們描述它的方式。這都是從 TAM 的角度考慮的。我們在公司層面看到的是，今年 ICAPS 市場正在加速增長，並以非常高的速度增長。我們認為其中一部分是由政府激勵措施驅動的，一部分是由更高強度驅動的，一部分是由我強調的終端市場的實力驅動的。也許，加里，關於碳化矽，你可以發表評論。

Yes, let me just give a little bit more color. So ICAPS relative to market share is similar for us with leading foundry logic. So we've grown share in ICAPS a significant amount over the last few years. It's also accretive to our overall gross margins. Four years ago, I think we've talked about this, we formed the ICAPS IoT, communication, auto power, sensors, organization because we could see these markets we're going to grow it at a significant pace.

是的，讓我多加一點顏色。因此，ICAPS 相對於市場份額與我們具有領先代工邏輯的相似。因此，在過去幾年中，我們在 ICAPS 中的份額大幅增加。這也增加了我們的整體毛利率。四年前，我想我們已經討論過這個問題，我們成立了 ICAPS 物聯網、通信、汽車電源、傳感器、組織，因為我們可以看到這些市場，我們將以顯著的速度發展它。

So we pulled together a really strong team. We have the broadest exposure. If you look at all of the technologies, whether it's in -- again, any of those different segments within ICAPS, we have significant strength. So again, that's something that we saw several years ago and made investments. So we have many ICAPS specific products. Implant is one area if we look at. There's many areas where we have strength and broad exposure in ICAPS. But in that particular area, we've introduced 10 new products focused on ICAPS in the last 5 years.

所以我們組建了一支非常強大的團隊。我們擁有最廣泛的曝光率。如果你看看所有的技術，無論是在——再一次，ICAPS 中的任何不同部分，我們都有強大的實力。再一次，這是我們幾年前看到並進行投資的東西。所以我們有很多 ICAPS 特定產品。如果我們看的話，植入是一個領域。在 ICAPS 中，我們在很多領域都具有實力和廣泛的影響力。但在那個特定領域，我們在過去 5 年中推出了 10 種專注於 ICAPS 的新產品。

That is the largest segment of our implant business. And just in that one area, again, we've been very supply constrained. We expect that we can double our ICAPS revenue in '23 versus '22. So again, just really across the board we have very, very strong positions. And pulling that organization together 4 years ago, really put us in a good position for what we're seeing today.

這是我們植入業務的最大部分。就在那個地區，我們的供應再次受到很大限制。我們預計我們可以在 23 年和 22 年將 ICAPS 收入翻一番。因此，再次重申，我們擁有非常、非常強大的立場。 4 年前將該組織召集在一起，真正讓我們處於今天所看到的有利位置。

And our next question coming from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had one quick clarification and then a question. Gary, you just mentioned that you expect your ICAPS revenue to double in '23 versus '22. Was that overall ICAPS? Or was that just implant? That's my clarification question. And then my question Gary, in your prepared remarks, you talked about your DRAM business potentially recovering by the end of the year, which to me is a little surprising, just given how weak the trends are in that marketplace today and the inventory situation. Can you kind of share what informs that view in DRAM? And what are your thoughts on NAND as well?

我有一個快速的澄清，然後是一個問題。加里，你剛剛提到你希望你的 ICAPS 收入在 23 年比 22 年翻一番。那是整體 ICAPS 嗎？或者那隻是植入物？這是我的澄清問題。然後我的問題加里，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了你的 DRAM 業務可能會在今年年底前復甦，這對我來說有點令人驚訝，只是考慮到當今市場的趨勢和庫存情況有多疲軟。你能分享一下 DRAM 中那個視圖的信息嗎？您對 NAND 有何看法？

Okay. Let me cover the first question is on the doubling of ICAPS, that's specifically implant in '23 versus '22. And part of was just the supply chain challenges that we had in '22 that limited our output. So that's what's happening there in -- with ICAP. And Brice, do you want to cover the DRAM NAND question?

好的。讓我來談談第一個問題是關於 ICAPS 的翻倍，特別是在 23 年和 22 年的植入。部分原因是我們在 22 年遇到的供應鏈挑戰限制了我們的產出。這就是 ICAP 正在發生的事情。 Brice，你想討論 DRAM NAND 問題嗎？

I think in the DRAM and NAND, we have seen the weakening in memory. We do expect that next year will improve on the memory perspective. I don't think, Toshiya, we're going to give an exact moment when the market will turn. I mentioned earlier, we kind of have 3 signals that we can look at internally. We can look at utilization for both NAND and DRAM. And we see utilization lower this quarter and all of our customers are forecasting utilization to be even lower next quarter. We've looked at the pricing of memory, and it looks like it's either declining or declining -- or slightly flattening. And then we've looked at inventories and it looks like inventories are still growing. So I don't think at this point that we can say, call the point in time where memory starts to grow. But we do expect next year that memory will improve and companies will begin to invest again. And it's just difficult to call that moment.

我認為在 DRAM 和 NAND 中，我們已經看到了內存的減弱。我們確實預計明年會在內存方面有所改善。 Toshiya，我認為我們不會給出市場轉向的確切時間。我之前提到過，我們有 3 個可以在內部查看的信號。我們可以查看 NAND 和 DRAM 的利用率。我們看到本季度的利用率較低，我們所有的客戶都預測下個季度的利用率會更低。我們查看了內存的定價，它看起來要么在下降，要么在下降——或者略微持平。然後我們查看了庫存，看起來庫存仍在增長。所以我不認為在這一點上我們可以說，調用內存開始增長的時間點。但我們確實預計明年記憶力會有所改善，公司將再次開始投資。很難說那一刻。

And our next question coming from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Brice, I had a question on backlog. It seems like backlog is sort of skewing your numbers a bit higher than your peers, given how long your lead times began or got to during the upturn. So I'm wondering if you can give us maybe a few more breadcrumbs on the backlog. I think you said last quarter, SSG backlog was $12.7 billion. So I just want to be clear that the SSG backlog went up from that number. And if so, that's kind of like 2.5 quarters of backlog for SSG. And when I think of a normal, you always used to run more like a quarter-and-a-half worth of SSG backlog. So is it right to conclude after all that, that you maybe have a quarter's worth of excess backlog right now as it relates to SSG?

布萊斯，我有一個關於積壓的問題。考慮到您的交貨時間開始或在好轉期間達到的時間，積壓似乎有點使您的數字比同行高一點。所以我想知道你是否可以給我們一些關於積壓的麵包屑。我想你上個季度說過，SSG 積壓訂單為 127 億美元。所以我只想說明 SSG 積壓的數量比那個數字有所增加。如果是這樣，那有點像 SSG 積壓的 2.5 個季度。當我想到正常情況時，您總是習慣運行更像是四分之一半的 SSG 積壓。那麼，歸根結底，您現在可能有四分之一的與 SSG 相關的多餘積壓工作是正確的嗎？

Yes. I think -- thanks, Tim, for the question. So color on it, I would say we did see weakness in leading logic and memory as we described. So a lot of the strength that we're seeing comes back to this acceleration on the ICAPS side. So from a mix perspective, I think that's where a lot of strength in the orders is coming from. And Gary highlighted the growth of implant. So certainly not the growth of total ICAPS is not 100%, but it is very meaningful to us for the year, obviously, enough in Q1 to offset weakness in memory and leading logic.

是的。我想——謝謝蒂姆提出這個問題。所以顏色，我會說我們確實看到了我們描述的領先邏輯和記憶方面的弱點。因此，我們看到的很多力量都回到了 ICAPS 方面的這種加速。因此，從混合的角度來看，我認為這就是訂單中很多力量的來源。加里強調了植入物的增長。所以 ICAPS 總量的增長肯定不是 100%，但這對我們今年來說非常有意義，顯然，第一季度足以抵消內存和領先邏輯的疲軟。

So that gives you some of the perspective. Most of this is in the semi business. Some of it's in 200-millimeter, which comes in the AGS space. And what I would say is, yes, it does tie back to the long lead times in the areas of the business that are highly differentiated equipment, where we're still working off that backlog. And we think it will take us -- I guess what I would say is -- last quarter, we highlighted that a normal backlog would probably be in the $12 billion or $13 billion range. We expect to work back in that direction as supply improves, and we can start catching up to the demand we had from last year.

所以這給了你一些觀點。其中大部分是在半導體業務中。其中一些是 200 毫米，屬於 AGS 空間。我要說的是，是的，它確實與高度差異化設備業務領域的較長交貨期有關，我們仍在處理積壓的業務。我們認為這將需要我們——我想我會說的是——上個季度，我們強調正常的積壓訂單可能在 120 億美元或 130 億美元之間。隨著供應的改善，我們希望朝著這個方向努力，我們可以開始趕上去年的需求。

So I guess, Brice, just to confirm, so the SOC backlog did go up from $12.7 million?

所以我猜，Brice，只是為了確認，所以 SOC 積壓訂單確實從 1270 萬美元增加了？

I'm looking at the data, Tim see if I can see this. Can you see it?

我正在查看數據，蒂姆看看我能不能看到這個。你能看見它嗎？

Yes, sir. Got it. Okay.

是的先生。知道了。好的。

Yes, maybe one thing I would add that just kind of gets back to a lot of the questions. We do have strength in many of these key technology inflections. We talked in the Master Classes about inflections gate all around, wiring, memory with capacitor formation or new materials PDC strength. We had that Master Class in December. So that's another thing. When you look at the composition of the backlog, just again, wiring alone, we have 1 inflection that enables a 50% reduction in resistance. The dollar per wafer goes up about 3x from 7 to 3 nanometer. So those areas are also helping us in relative performance.

是的，也許我要補充的一件事就是回到很多問題。我們在這些關鍵技術的許多變化中確實有實力。我們在大師班上討論了周圍的變形門、佈線、帶電容器形成的存儲器或新材料 PDC 強度。我們在 12 月舉辦了大師班。所以那是另一回事。當您再次查看積壓的構成時，僅佈線，我們有 1 個拐點可以使電阻降低 50%。從 7 納米到 3 納米，每片晶圓的價格上漲了約 3 倍。因此，這些領域也在幫助我們實現相對績效。

And our next question coming from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Harlan Sur 與摩根大通的合作。

Given the unprecedented sort of excess inventory situation in the memory space, your memory customers are being very disciplined, right? They're taking drastic actions to rein in supply, even going so far as to push out their technology migration road maps. Typically in downturns, we wouldn't see your customers pulling back on tech migrations, capacity add, yes, but not tech migration. So is the tech migration pullback in the associated higher capital intensity a big contributor the WFE pullback this year in memory? And just as importantly, we just mean the potential for a sharper spending recovery as memory fundamentals start to normalize because all of your memory customers are going to try to aggressively get realigned on their tech migration road maps.

鑑於內存空間出現前所未有的過剩庫存情況，您的內存客戶非常自律，對吧？他們正在採取嚴厲行動來控制供應，甚至推出他們的技術遷移路線圖。通常在經濟低迷時期，我們不會看到您的客戶撤回技術遷移、產能增加，是的，但不是技術遷移。那麼，相關的更高資本密集度導致的技術移民回落是否是記憶中 WFE 今年回落的一個重要因素？同樣重要的是，我們的意思是隨著內存基本面開始正常化，支出可能會出現更大幅度的恢復，因為您所有的內存客戶都將嘗試積極調整他們的技術遷移路線圖。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Harlan. I'll start, and Gary will probably want to add something here. I don't think that the inventory situation in the current market is guiding their technology transition choices. I think that will be driven by the opportunity to take leadership positions and improve the cost of the bits and improve the product performance, et cetera. So what does happen is they may have more equipment that they can reuse into their road map depending on what demand is. So they'll make changes and lower their equipment buys based on that. So I think -- I'm not aware of companies for -- that are connecting the technology ramp decision with the current inventory situation and business situation.

是的。謝謝你的問題，哈倫。我將開始，Gary 可能想在這裡添加一些內容。我不認為當前市場的庫存情況正在指導他們的技術轉型選擇。我認為這將受到擔任領導職位、降低鑽頭成本和提高產品性能等機會的推動。因此，實際發生的情況是，他們可能擁有更多設備，可以根據需求將這些設備重新用於他們的路線圖。因此，他們將根據此進行更改並降低設備購買量。所以我認為——我不知道有哪些公司——正在將技術升級決策與當前庫存狀況和業務狀況聯繫起來。

Yes, Harlan, I would say that your view of memory strengthening, we said DRAM potentially by the end of the calendar year and memory strengthening into '24, we would share that perspective. What I would say is that we are -- we also believe that foundry logic will remain strong going forward. It was in this kind of 2/3, 1/3 mix between foundry, logic and memory. And -- especially with government incentives, you see a lot of government incentives certainly in the U.S., in Europe, Japan, a number of different areas, potentially in India. That could add a few billion dollars per year in additional investment. And again, the profile of higher foundry logic versus memory, we think that's going to sustain for a number of years going into the future.

是的，Harlan，我想說你對內存增強的看法，我們說 DRAM 可能會在日曆年年底和內存增強到 24 年，我們會分享這個觀點。我要說的是我們 - 我們也相信代工邏輯將在未來保持強勁。正是在代工、邏輯和內存之間的這種 2/3、1/3 混合中。而且 - 特別是在政府激勵措施方面，你肯定會在美國，歐洲，日本，許多不同地區看到很多政府激勵措施，可能在印度。這可能每年增加數十億美元的額外投資。再一次，更高代工邏輯與內存的對比，我們認為這將在未來持續數年。

And our next question coming from the line of Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

I wanted to ask about the backlog fulfillment kind of working that back down to more normalized levels or at least 50% of that kind of where you're at today. How do we think about that from a your ability to increase production supply versus your orders maybe slowing from your customers. I guess, how do we split that out in terms of understanding what's driving backlog there?

我想問一下積壓工作的履行情況，這種工作可以回到更規範化的水平，或者至少是你今天所處水平的 50%。我們如何從您增加生產供應的能力與您的客戶訂單可能放緩的角度來考慮這一點。我想，我們如何根據了解是什麼導致那裡的積壓將其分開？

It was a little hard to hear the second part of that question. But let me start with working down the backlog, Joe. Thanks for the question, Joe. So I guess the way we're thinking about it, it's hard to estimate the order flow coming in and estimate the exact backlog number. But we've got several business units that are still shipping against demand really that we received last year. And it has been supply constrained. It's -- we're behind 1 to 4 quarters depending on the business unit that we think of. So we think as supply has improved, we'll begin to ship back against last year's orders and recover to a normal position. And the quickest business unit, we'll probably do that in the next quarter. Then we do have 1 or 2 business units that will take into next year to be able to recover that. I don't know, go ahead and -- Joe, can you say the second part of your question, again, there was some line noise kind of blocked it.

聽到那個問題的第二部分有點困難。但是讓我開始處理積壓工作，喬。謝謝你的問題，喬。所以我猜我們正在考慮的方式，很難估計進入的訂單流和估計確切的積壓數量。但是我們有幾個業務部門仍在按去年收到的需求發貨。而且它一直受到供應限制。這是 - 根據我們想到的業務部門，我們落後 1 到 4 個季度。因此，我們認為隨著供應的改善，我們將開始根據去年的訂單發貨並恢復到正常水平。最快的業務部門，我們可能會在下個季度完成。然後我們確實有 1 或 2 個業務部門將在明年進行恢復。我不知道，請繼續-- Joe，你能不能再說一下你問題的第二部分，有一些線路噪音阻礙了它。

I apologize. The second part is just trying to understand the other piece of aside from supply is -- are you predicating on orders being resilient to take that long to get back down to a more normalized level? Or are you expecting orders to maybe slow?

我道歉。第二部分只是試圖了解供應之外的另一部分是——你是否預測訂單有彈性，需要那麼長時間才能回到更正常的水平？還是您預計訂單可能會變慢？

I think we're not really -- I guess I would say we're not really expecting orders to slow. Like I said, we're current in the environment. And so as we think towards next year, we expect '24 to be a better year across the whole industry, memory, leading logic, et cetera. So at some point, we expect there to be stability in the market. We saw strong orders this period. I can't predict if it will be strong every cycle. But as we head towards '24, we think there'll be firmer footing.

我認為我們並不是真的——我想我會說我們並不是真的期望訂單放緩。就像我說的，我們在環境中。因此，當我們考慮明年時，我們預計 24 年將是整個行業、內存、領先邏輯等領域更好的一年。因此，在某個時候，我們預計市場會保持穩定。這段時間我們看到了強勁的訂單。我無法預測它是否會在每個週期都很強。但隨著我們走向 24 世紀，我們認為會有更穩固的基礎。

Our next question coming from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

You guys talked about leading-edge foundry and logic spending down slightly this year. I was just hoping that you can double-click on that a little bit. Based on your business, how do you see the ramp of 3-nanometer production, say, by the end of this year as compared to maybe years past for leading edge? And also, how does that compare to your expectations maybe 3 to 6 months ago? And maybe you can talk about transit outside of 3 nanometers, that would be great.

你們談到了今年領先的代工和邏輯支出略有下降。我只是希望你可以雙擊它一點點。根據您的業務，您如何看待 3 納米生產的增長，比如說，與過去幾年的領先優勢相比，到今年年底？而且，這與您 3 到 6 個月前的預期相比如何？也許你可以談論 3 納米以外的傳輸，那會很棒。

Okay. I'll start on that one, on the leading edge. So I think it's pretty straightforward. The largest leading-edge customers are running at lower utilization at this point. And so they're resizing their capital buys as they look at the utilization level that they are now. So we've seen pushouts or cancellations of some tools related to those customers. And I think it's pretty straightforward. They have lower utilization and they have the ability to reuse some of that equipment into their next ramp. And then I don't think we typically comment on the timing of the other nodes. But Gary, do you want to make a comment about 3 nanometer.

好的。我將從前沿開始。所以我認為這很簡單。目前，最大的前沿客戶的利用率較低。因此，當他們查看他們現在的利用率水平時，他們正在調整他們的資本購買規模。因此，我們已經看到與這些客戶相關的一些工具的推出或取消。我認為這非常簡單。他們的利用率較低，並且有能力將其中一些設備重新用於下一個坡道。然後我認為我們通常不會對其他節點的時間發表評論。但是加里，你想對 3 納米發表評論嗎？

Yes, what I would say is that from what we're hearing from customers, the demand for 3-nanometer is very strong, and that looks like that's going to be a very big investment for our customers. And again, for us, the positions there, we've covered that in a lot of the Master Classes, we expect our share of gate-all-around to rise versus FinFET, about 5 points. And we have the majority of the spending in that inflection. I've talked about those wiring inflections where the dollar per wafer goes up significantly from one technology node to the next. And again, we've covered those in the Master Classes. So our position at 3-nanometer is very strong. Our position gets stronger even in 2-nanometer as customers are driving improvements in power and performance. So our position there is very good. And again, what we're hearing from customers is significant demand for 3-nanometer and the timing, we'll let them comment on the timing.

是的，我要說的是，從我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況來看，對 3 納米的需求非常強勁，看起來這對我們的客戶來說將是一筆非常大的投資。再一次，對於我們來說，那裡的位置，我們已經在很多大師班中提到了這一點，我們預計我們的 gate-all-around 份額相對於 FinFET 會上升，大約 5 個百分點。我們在這種變化中擁有大部分支出。我已經談到了那些佈線的變化，其中每個晶圓的美元從一個技術節點到下一個技術節點顯著上升。同樣，我們已經在大師班中介紹了這些內容。所以我們在 3 納米的地位非常強大。隨著客戶推動功率和性能的改進，我們的地位甚至在 2 納米領域也變得更加強大。所以我們在那裡的位置非常好。再一次，我們從客戶那裡聽到的是對 3 納米和時間的巨大需求，我們會讓他們對時間發表評論。

And our next question coming from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham.

我們的下一個問題來自 Quinn Bolton 與 Needham 的對話。

Just hoping you could help reconcile something for me. Obviously, it sounds like the ICAPS business is very strong in 2023. You said China is the biggest part of ICAPS. But when I look at your China revenue, it looks like it's down 40% over the past year from about $2 billion to $1.15 billion. So just trying to reconcile that the slower pace of revenue in China versus the ICAPS strength you're seeing, I guess, is that ICAPS strength really coming from non-China regions? Or do you expect a nice recovery in China as you come through 2023?

只是希望你能幫我調和一些東西。顯然，聽起來 ICAPS 業務在 2023 年非常強勁。您說中國是 ICAPS 的最大部分。但當我查看你們在中國的收入時，它似乎在過去一年中下降了 40%，從大約 20 億美元降至 11.5 億美元。因此，只是試圖調和中國收入增長放緩與您看到的 ICAPS 實力之間的關係，我想，ICAPS 實力真的來自非中國地區嗎？還是您預計到 2023 年中國會出現良好的複蘇？

Yes. Thanks, Quinn. The strength in ICAPS is broad-based. So it is growing worldwide, but China is the largest country, and most of the demand that we see in China is really ICAPS-related because the memory investments and leading logic investments are essentially 0 or close to 0. That's where most of that investment is.

是的。謝謝，奎因。 ICAPS 的優勢是廣泛的。所以它在全球範圍內都在增長，但中國是最大的國家，我們在中國看到的大部分需求實際上與 ICAPS 相關，因為內存投資和領先的邏輯投資基本上為 0 或接近 0。這就是大部分投資的地方是。

Yes. I would say that relative to ICAPS profile in '23, China is remaining at a similar level. But there is growth, significant growth in the other regions. I think your assumption is pretty close to what we see.

是的。我想說的是，相對於 23 年的 ICAPS 概況，中國仍處於相似水平。但是在其他地區有增長，顯著增長。我認為您的假設與我們所看到的非常接近。

And our next question coming from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mehdi Hosseini 和 Susquehanna 的台詞。

I have one clarification and one follow-up. The $250 million that is pushed out to the July quarter, could that potentially help with a rather stable SSG revenue trend? I'm just trying to get a feel for how the $250 million pushout could impact SSG 2 quarters out. And then would you be able to help you understand how big is implant within ICAPS?

我有一項澄清和一項後續行動。推遲到 7 月季度的 2.5 億美元是否可能有助於 SSG 收入趨勢相當穩定？我只是想了解 2.5 億美元的推出將如何影響 SSG 2 個季度。然後您能否幫助您了解 ICAPS 中的植入物有多大？

Yes. Thanks, Mehdi. I'll take the I'll take the $250 million. So we do expect -- none of that demand is perishable. So yes, in your model, I would take that $250 million and add it to whatever you're modeling for Q3. We don't know if we'll get exactly all in Q3, but we think we'll get it most in Q3 based on our current assumptions. And then to the extent that there's weakness in the second half, if there is, then it would offset that to a degree just like you're describing.

是的。謝謝，邁赫迪。我會接受我會接受 2.5 億美元。所以我們確實期望 - 這些需求都不會消失。所以是的，在你的模型中，我會把那 2.5 億美元加到你為第三季度建模的任何東西中。我們不知道我們是否會在第三季度獲得全部，但我們認為根據我們目前的假設，我們將在第三季度獲得最多。然後就下半場的弱點而言，如果有的話，它會在一定程度上抵消它，就像你描述的那樣。

Yes. Mehdi, relative to implant.

是的。 Mehdi，相對於植入物。

Yes, I'm just trying to understand how big is implant within ICAPS.

是的，我只是想了解 ICAPS 中的植入物有多大。

Sorry. Sorry, I didn't push the button. Relative to implant ICAPS, we haven't quantified the amount -- the size of that business. But it is the largest segment within implant Mehdi. And we -- and as I said earlier, that we believe that we can double that, roughly double that implant ICAPS revenue from '22 to '23. We're the leader in that segment, and it is significant. But we have really broad exposure across multiple products within ICAPS. As you know, it's not really shrink-driven, it's more materials and structures-driven market. We're the leader in that market, and we expect that will remain strong in '23 and going forward.

對不起。抱歉，我沒有按下按鈕。相對於植入 ICAPS，我們還沒有量化數量——該業務的規模。但它是植入物 Mehdi 中最大的部分。我們——正如我之前所說，我們相信我們可以將其翻一番，從 22 年到 23 年的植入 ICAPS 收入大約翻一番。我們是該領域的領導者，這很重要。但我們在 ICAPS 的多個產品中擁有非常廣泛的曝光度。如您所知，這並不是真正的收縮驅動，更多的是材料和結構驅動的市場。我們是該市場的領導者，我們預計該市場將在 23 世紀及未來保持強勁勢頭。

And our next question coming from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Chin 與 Stifel 的合作。

Maybe just in terms of the backlog discussion, I guess it sounds like -- is there a disproportionate amount of the backlog that is geared towards ICAPS, and that's really even net of pushouts or cancellations that may be happening in memory, for example? This is really I guess, the main reason why your revenue is as resilient in terms of near-term shipments, kind of the net product is just beneficial. Is that the right way of thinking about it generally?

也許就積壓討論而言，我想這聽起來像是——是否有不成比例的積壓是針對 ICAPS 的，例如，這實際上什至是內存中可能發生的推出或取消的淨額？我想這真的是你的收入在近期出貨量方面具有彈性的主要原因，某種淨產品只是有益的。一般來說，這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes. Brian, thanks for the question. I do think it's fair. I didn't parse backlog in exactly the way that you described. But to your point, we're seeing significant strength accelerating demand from our ICAPS customers that's filling in blanks that we get on the memory or leading logic side. And so to the extent that, that our backlog represents the orders that we're shipping, I think it's fair to say that there's a significant amount of ICAPS strengths across that backlog. So I think that dynamic is fair. And just going back to those end markets, we do think it's sustainable. We don't think the strength is anything unusual or driven by any unusual activity. We don't think companies are putting in capacity that they won't use. This is just growth that, as Gary said, that we've seen coming for a while and it's starting to build out, and you might have seen some of the big larger companies in the ICAPS space talking about these investments. So I think you'll see it pretty much across the globe.

是的。布賴恩，謝謝你的提問。我認為這很公平。我沒有完全按照您描述的方式解析積壓。但就你的觀點而言，我們看到 ICAPS 客戶的需求正在加速增長，這填補了我們在內存或領先邏輯方面的空白。因此，在某種程度上，我們的積壓訂單代表了我們正在運送的訂單，我認為可以公平地說，在該積壓訂單中有大量的 ICAPS 優勢。所以我認為這種動態是公平的。回到那些終端市場，我們確實認為它是可持續的。我們不認為這種力量是任何不尋常的或由任何不尋常的活動驅動的。我們認為公司不會投入他們不會使用的能力。正如加里所說，這只是增長，我們已經看到了一段時間，而且它正在開始擴大，你可能已經看到 ICAPS 領域的一些大公司在談論這些投資。所以我認為你會在全球範圍內看到它。

Great. And I imagine some of those cylinders aren't even firing at the moment, too. So that's probably not bad as well.

偉大的。我想其中一些汽缸此刻甚至都沒有點火。所以這可能也不錯。

And operator, we have time for two more questions, please.

接線員，我們有時間再問兩個問題。

Our next question coming from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

Just curious the message on overall foundry logic. So clearly, ICAPS is up. I'm just trying to understand if you could just talk about what's kind of the trends have been in leading edge. And I think some has kind of talked about it being kind of slightly down for the year as a market. Just kind of curious what you're seeing. You talked about it getting a bit weaker on leading edge. Can you just clarify how much it has? And just walk us through kind of last couple of months in leading-edge foundry.

只是好奇關於整體鑄造邏輯的信息。很明顯，ICAPS 已經啟動。我只是想了解您是否可以談談處於領先地位的趨勢是什麼樣的。而且我認為有些人已經談到它作為一個市場今年略有下降。只是有點好奇你看到了什麼。你談到它在領先優勢上變得有點弱。你能澄清一下它有多少嗎？並帶領我們度過了過去幾個月在前沿鑄造廠的經歷。

Yes, Blayne, I think slightly weaker, we won't give an exact number. We may not see the exact number either. But when we look -- when we think about the big customers in foundry logic, that everybody knows, they have had reductions in our capital plans. When we look at leading foundry logic, when we look at utilization, it is low at this period of time. So their customers, our customers' customers are working through inventories at this point in time. But when you start to turn the page, the leading logic is going to invest in the next nodes and put that capacity in place. They may have a little bit more equipment available for reuse but they're going to make those investments. And we expect that and we see that coming through. And so we'll -- when we get past this year, we'll expect to see strength in foundry logic again. Gary, do you want to add anything to that one.

是的，布萊恩，我認為稍微弱一點，我們不會給出確切的數字。我們也可能看不到確切的數字。但是當我們看 - 當我們考慮鑄造邏輯中的大客戶時，眾所周知，他們已經減少了我們的資本計劃。當我們查看領先的代工邏輯時，當我們查看利用率時，這段時間它很低。所以他們的客戶，我們客戶的客戶此時正在處理庫存。但是當你開始翻頁時，領先的邏輯將投資於下一個節點並將該容量放置到位。他們可能有更多的設備可供重複使用，但他們會進行這些投資。我們期待這一點，我們看到了這一點。因此，我們將 - 當我們度過今年時，我們將期望再次看到代工邏輯的實力。加里，你想添加什麼嗎？

And our next question coming from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho Group.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗集團的 Vijay Rakesh。

Gary on Brice, going back on the backlog, again, I think you mentioned your backlog is current. Does that imply that the memory exposure or memory within that is fairly small given all the cancellations? And then a follow-up.

Gary on Brice，再次回到積壓，我想你提到你的積壓是最新的。這是否意味著考慮到所有取消，內存暴露或其中的內存相當小？然後是跟進。

Vijay, I don't know if -- first of all, it's current. We've definitely gone through and made changes to the backlog based on our current customer situations. Whether we have more exposure or not, it depends on how things go. The macroeconomic factors are also important if there's -- some people think there will be a recession, some people don't. So it really depends on where the economy goes for the second half. But all we can say is we're current. We don't think we're missing signals in the market, and we don't think there's impending changes. It will just depend on which way the underlying demand goes.

Vijay，我不知道是否——首先，它是最新的。我們肯定已經根據我們當前的客戶情況對積壓進行了更改。我們是否有更多的曝光，這取決於事情的進展。宏觀經濟因素也很重要——有些人認為會出現衰退，有些人不認為。所以這真的取決於下半年經濟的走向。但我們只能說我們是最新的。我們不認為我們在市場上錯過了信號，我們也不認為有即將發生的變化。這將僅取決於潛在需求的走向。

Got it. And then on the China side, it is down 14% sequentially, and it looks like probably the third quarter has been going down. Is it fair to assume that it's fairly close to a trough there on the China spend side, given some of the ICAPS commentary that you had out of China?

知道了。然後在中國方面，它連續下降了 14%，看起來第三季度可能一直在下降。鑑於您從中國獲得的一些 ICAPS 評論，假設它在中國支出方面相當接近低谷是否公平？

We won't call it exact trough, but I think it's a fair thought because we expect over time, display will grow. We expect our services business will grow. And certainly, China is mostly an ICAPS businesses at this point, and we're expecting strong growth there. So I won't call a trough, but if you ask, are the effects of the trade rules, have we absorbed those effects, I think the answer is yes.

我們不會稱之為確切的低谷，但我認為這是一個合理的想法，因為我們預計隨著時間的推移，顯示會增長。我們預計我們的服務業務將會增長。當然，目前中國主要是 ICAPS 業務，我們預計那裡會出現強勁增長。所以我不會稱之為低谷，但如果你問，貿易規則的影響，我們是否吸收了這些影響，我認為答案是肯定的。

And now Brice, would you like to give us your closing thoughts today.

現在，Brice，你想給我們談談你今天的結束語嗎？

Thanks, Mike. Absolutely. So today, we emphasized that our backlog of enabling products are ICAPS growth and our strength and services are helping us to be resilient in this market. We're confident in the long-term growth of the semiconductor industry and committed to building the technology and capacity to support our customers. Thank you all for attending this call. We look forward to seeing many of you at our offices this quarter, and I look forward to attending the Morgan Stanley conference in a few weeks. Mike, thank you, and please close today's call.

謝謝，邁克。絕對地。所以今天，我們強調我們積壓的支持產品是 ICAPS 的增長，我們的實力和服務正在幫助我們在這個市場上保持彈性。我們對半導體行業的長期增長充滿信心，並致力於建設技術和能力來支持我們的客戶。感謝大家參加這次電話會議。我們期待著本季度在我們的辦公室見到你們中的許多人，我期待著在幾週後參加摩根士丹利會議。邁克，謝謝你，請結束今天的電話會議。

Great. Thanks, Brice. And I'd like to add my own closing message, which is please do join us on February 28 for our patterning product launch webcast. You can find a registration link on the Events page of our IR website, where we'll also post a replay of today's call by 5:00 Pacific Time today. So thank you for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

偉大的。謝謝，布萊斯。我想添加我自己的結束語，請在 2 月 28 日加入我們的圖案產品發佈網絡廣播。您可以在我們 IR 網站的“活動”頁面上找到註冊鏈接，我們還將在太平洋時間今天 5:00 之前發布今天電話會議的重播。因此，感謝您今天下午加入我們，感謝您對應用材料的持續關注。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。